Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1995-01-01

A resource for teaching about the consequences of global warming. Discusses feedback from the temperature increase, changes in the global precipitation pattern, effects on agriculture, weather extremes, effects on forests, effects on biodiversity, effects on sea levels, and actions which will help the global community cope with global warming. (LZ)

Agricultural greenhouse gas flux determination via remote sensing and modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Serious concerns have been raised about increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and associated climate change. For every degree in global temperature increase, grain production yields are expected to decrease 10%, while the global human population continues to increase by roughly 8...

Global Tree Cover and Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land: The contribution of agroforestry to global and national carbon budgets

PubMed Central

Zomer, Robert J.; Neufeldt, Henry; Xu, Jianchu; Ahrends, Antje; Bossio, Deborah; Trabucco, Antonio; van Noordwijk, Meine; Wang, Mingcheng

2016-01-01

Agroforestry systems and tree cover on agricultural land make an important contribution to climate change mitigation, but are not systematically accounted for in either global carbon budgets or national carbon accounting. This paper assesses the role of trees on agricultural land and their significance for carbon sequestration at a global level, along with recent change trends. Remote sensing data show that in 2010, 43% of all agricultural land globally had at least 10% tree cover and that this has increased by 2% over the previous ten years. Combining geographically and bioclimatically stratified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 default estimates of carbon storage with this tree cover analysis, we estimated 45.3 PgC on agricultural land globally, with trees contributing >75%. Between 2000 and 2010 tree cover increased by 3.7%, resulting in an increase of >2 PgC (or 4.6%) of biomass carbon. On average, globally, biomass carbon increased from 20.4 to 21.4 tC ha−1. Regional and country-level variation in stocks and trends were mapped and tabulated globally, and for all countries. Brazil, Indonesia, China and India had the largest increases in biomass carbon stored on agricultural land, while Argentina, Myanmar, and Sierra Leone had the largest decreases. PMID:27435095

Switching between global and local levels: the level repetition effect and its hemispheric asymmetry

PubMed Central

Kéïta, Luc; Bedoin, Nathalie; Burack, Jacob A.; Lepore, Franco

2014-01-01

The global level of hierarchical stimuli (Navon’s stimuli) is typically processed quicker and better than the local level; further differential hemispheric dominance is described for local (left hemisphere, LH) and global (right hemisphere, RH) processing. However, neuroimaging and behavioral data indicate that stimulus category (letter or object) could modulate the hemispheric asymmetry for the local level processing. Besides, when the targets are unpredictably displayed at the global or local level, the participant has to switch between levels, and the magnitude of the switch cost increases with the number of repeated-level trials preceding the switch. The hemispheric asymmetries associated with level switching is an unresolved issue. LH areas may be involved in carrying over the target level information in case of level repetition. These areas may also largely participate in the processing of level-changed trials. Here we hypothesized that RH areas underly the inhibitory mechanism performed on the irrelevant level, as one of the components of the level switching process. In an experiment using a within-subject design, hierarchical stimuli were briefly presented either to the right or to the left visual field. 32 adults were instructed to identify the target at the global or local level. We assessed a possible RH dominance for the non-target level inhibition by varying the attentional demands through the manipulation of level repetitions (two or gour repeated-level trials before the switch). The behavioral data confirmed a LH specialization only for the local level processing of letter-based stimuli, and detrimental effect of increased level repetitions before a switch. Further, data provides evidence for a RH advantage in inhibiting the non-target level. Taken together, the data supports the notion of the existence of multiple mechanisms underlying level-switch effects. PMID:24723903

Assessing the global zoo response to the amphibian crisis through 20-year trends in captive collections.

PubMed

Dawson, Jeff; Patel, Freisha; Griffiths, Richard A; Young, Richard P

2016-02-01

Global amphibian declines are one of the biggest challenges currently facing the conservation community, and captive breeding is one way to address this crisis. Using information from the International Species Information System zoo network, we examined trends in global zoo amphibian holdings across species, zoo region, and species geographical region of origin from 1994 to 2014. These trends were compared before and after the 2004 Global Amphibian Assessment to assess whether any changes occurred and whether zoo amphibian conservation effort had increased. The numbers of globally threatened species (GTS) and their proportional representation in global zoo holdings increased and this rate of increase was significantly greater after 2004. North American, European, and Oceanian GTS were best represented in zoos globally, and proportions of Oceanian GTS held increased the most since 2004. South American and Asian GTS had the lowest proportional representation in zoos. At a regional zoo level, European zoos held the lowest proportions of GTS, and this proportion did not increase after 2004. Since 1994, the number of species held in viable populations has increased, and these species are distributed among more institutions. However, as of 2014, zoos held 6.2% of globally threatened amphibians, a much smaller figure than for other vertebrate groups and one that falls considerably short of the number of species for which ex situ management may be desirable. Although the increased effort zoos have put into amphibian conservation over the past 20 years is encouraging, more focus is needed on ex situ conservation priority species. This includes building expertise and capacity in countries that hold them and tracking existing conservation efforts if the evidence-based approach to amphibian conservation planning at a global level is to be further developed. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Noiseonomics: The relationship between ambient noise levels in the sea and global economic trends

PubMed Central

Frisk, George V.

2012-01-01

In recent years, the topic of noise in the sea and its effects on marine mammals has attracted considerable attention from both the scientific community and the general public. Since marine mammals rely heavily on acoustics as a primary means of communicating, navigating, and foraging in the ocean, any change in their acoustic environment may have an impact on their behavior. Specifically, a growing body of literature suggests that low-frequency, ambient noise levels in the open ocean increased approximately 3.3 dB per decade during the period 1950–2007. Here we show that this increase can be attributed primarily to commercial shipping activity, which in turn, can be linked to global economic growth. As a corollary, we conclude that ambient noise levels can be directly related to global economic conditions. We provide experimental evidence supporting this theory and discuss its implications for predicting future noise levels based on global economic trends. PMID:22666540

Sea level change since 2005: importance of salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llovel, W.; Purkey, S.; Meyssignac, B.; Kolodziejczyk, N.; Blazquez, A.; Bamber, J. L.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of the actual global warming. Global mean sea level has been rising at a faster rate since 1993 (over the satellite altimetry era) than previous decades. This rise is expected to accelerate over the coming decades and century. At global scale, sea level rise is caused by a combination of freshwater increase from land ice melting and land water changes (mass component) and ocean warming (thermal expansion). Estimating the causes is of great interest not only to understand the past sea level changes but also to validate projections based on climate models. In this study, we investigate the global mass contribution to recent sea level changes with an alternative approach by estimating the global ocean freshening. For that purpose, we consider the unprecedented amount of salinity measurements from Argo floats for the past decade (2005-2015). We compare our results to the ocean mass inferred by GRACE data and based on a sea level budget approach. Our results bring new constrains on the global water cycle (ocean freshening) and energy budget (ocean warming) as well as on the global ocean mass directly inferred from GRACE data.

SPONGY (SPam ONtoloGY): Email Classification Using Two-Level Dynamic Ontology

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Email is one of common communication methods between people on the Internet. However, the increase of email misuse/abuse has resulted in an increasing volume of spam emails over recent years. An experimental system has been designed and implemented with the hypothesis that this method would outperform existing techniques, and the experimental results showed that indeed the proposed ontology-based approach improves spam filtering accuracy significantly. In this paper, two levels of ontology spam filters were implemented: a first level global ontology filter and a second level user-customized ontology filter. The use of the global ontology filter showed about 91% of spam filtered, which is comparable with other methods. The user-customized ontology filter was created based on the specific user's background as well as the filtering mechanism used in the global ontology filter creation. The main contributions of the paper are (1) to introduce an ontology-based multilevel filtering technique that uses both a global ontology and an individual filter for each user to increase spam filtering accuracy and (2) to create a spam filter in the form of ontology, which is user-customized, scalable, and modularized, so that it can be embedded to many other systems for better performance. PMID:25254240

SPONGY (SPam ONtoloGY): email classification using two-level dynamic ontology.

PubMed

Youn, Seongwook

2014-01-01

Email is one of common communication methods between people on the Internet. However, the increase of email misuse/abuse has resulted in an increasing volume of spam emails over recent years. An experimental system has been designed and implemented with the hypothesis that this method would outperform existing techniques, and the experimental results showed that indeed the proposed ontology-based approach improves spam filtering accuracy significantly. In this paper, two levels of ontology spam filters were implemented: a first level global ontology filter and a second level user-customized ontology filter. The use of the global ontology filter showed about 91% of spam filtered, which is comparable with other methods. The user-customized ontology filter was created based on the specific user's background as well as the filtering mechanism used in the global ontology filter creation. The main contributions of the paper are (1) to introduce an ontology-based multilevel filtering technique that uses both a global ontology and an individual filter for each user to increase spam filtering accuracy and (2) to create a spam filter in the form of ontology, which is user-customized, scalable, and modularized, so that it can be embedded to many other systems for better performance.

Satellite-based global-ocean mass balance estimates of interannual variability and emerging trends in continental freshwater discharge

PubMed Central

Syed, Tajdarul H.; Famiglietti, James S.; Chambers, Don P.; Willis, Josh K.; Hilburn, Kyle

2010-01-01

Freshwater discharge from the continents is a key component of Earth’s water cycle that sustains human life and ecosystem health. Surprisingly, owing to a number of socioeconomic and political obstacles, a comprehensive global river discharge observing system does not yet exist. Here we use 13 years (1994–2006) of satellite precipitation, evaporation, and sea level data in an ocean mass balance to estimate freshwater discharge into the global ocean. Results indicate that global freshwater discharge averaged 36,055 km3/y for the study period while exhibiting significant interannual variability driven primarily by El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles. The method described here can ultimately be used to estimate long-term global discharge trends as the records of sea level rise and ocean temperature lengthen. For the relatively short 13-year period studied here, global discharge increased by 540 km3/y2, which was largely attributed to an increase of global-ocean evaporation (768 km3/y2). Sustained growth of these flux rates into long-term trends would provide evidence for increasing intensity of the hydrologic cycle. PMID:20921364

Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level rise.

PubMed

Miller, Laury; Douglas, Bruce C

2004-03-25

The rate of twentieth-century global sea level rise and its causes are the subjects of intense controversy. Most direct estimates from tide gauges give 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1), whereas indirect estimates based on the two processes responsible for global sea level rise, namely mass and volume change, fall far below this range. Estimates of the volume increase due to ocean warming give a rate of about 0.5 mm yr(-1) (ref. 8) and the rate due to mass increase, primarily from the melting of continental ice, is thought to be even smaller. Therefore, either the tide gauge estimates are too high, as has been suggested recently, or one (or both) of the mass and volume estimates is too low. Here we present an analysis of sea level measurements at tide gauges combined with observations of temperature and salinity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans close to the gauges. We find that gauge-determined rates of sea level rise, which encompass both mass and volume changes, are two to three times higher than the rates due to volume change derived from temperature and salinity data. Our analysis supports earlier studies that put the twentieth-century rate in the 1.5-2.0 mm yr(-1) range, but more importantly it suggests that mass increase plays a larger role than ocean warming in twentieth-century global sea level rise.

Fugitive Emissions from the Bakken Shale Illustrate Role of Shale Production in Global Ethane Shift

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kort, E. A.; Smith, M. L.; Murray, L. T.; Gvakharia, A.; Brandt, A. R.; Peischl, J.; Ryerson, T. B.; Sweeney, C.; Travis, K.

2016-01-01

Ethane is the second most abundant atmospheric hydrocarbon, exerts a strong influence on tropospheric ozone, and reduces the atmosphere's oxidative capacity. Global observations showed declining ethane abundances from 1984 to 2010, while a regional measurement indicated increasing levels since 2009, with the reason for this subject to speculation. The Bakken shale is an oil and gas-producing formation centered in North Dakota that experienced a rapid increase in production beginning in 2010. We use airborne data collected over the North Dakota portion of the Bakken shale in 2014 to calculate ethane emissions of 0.23 +/- 0.07 (2 sigma) Tg/yr, equivalent to 1-3% of total global sources. Emissions of this magnitude impact air quality via concurrent increases in tropospheric ozone. This recently developed large ethane source from one location illustrates the key role of shale oil and gas production in rising global ethane levels.

Globalization and economic growth: empirical evidence on the role of complementarities.

PubMed

Samimi, Parisa; Jenatabadi, Hashem Salarzadeh

2014-01-01

This study was carried out to investigate the effect of economic globalization on economic growth in OIC countries. Furthermore, the study examined the effect of complementary policies on the growth effect of globalization. It also investigated whether the growth effect of globalization depends on the income level of countries. Utilizing the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator within the framework of a dynamic panel data approach, we provide evidence which suggests that economic globalization has statistically significant impact on economic growth in OIC countries. The results indicate that this positive effect is increased in the countries with better-educated workers and well-developed financial systems. Our finding shows that the effect of economic globalization also depends on the country's level of income. High and middle-income countries benefit from globalization whereas low-income countries do not gain from it. In fact, the countries should receive the appropriate income level to be benefited from globalization. Economic globalization not only directly promotes growth but also indirectly does so via complementary reforms.

Globalization and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Complementarities

PubMed Central

Samimi, Parisa; Jenatabadi, Hashem Salarzadeh

2014-01-01

This study was carried out to investigate the effect of economic globalization on economic growth in OIC countries. Furthermore, the study examined the effect of complementary policies on the growth effect of globalization. It also investigated whether the growth effect of globalization depends on the income level of countries. Utilizing the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator within the framework of a dynamic panel data approach, we provide evidence which suggests that economic globalization has statistically significant impact on economic growth in OIC countries. The results indicate that this positive effect is increased in the countries with better-educated workers and well-developed financial systems. Our finding shows that the effect of economic globalization also depends on the country’s level of income. High and middle-income countries benefit from globalization whereas low-income countries do not gain from it. In fact, the countries should receive the appropriate income level to be benefited from globalization. Economic globalization not only directly promotes growth but also indirectly does so via complementary reforms. PMID:24721896

Tending the Global Commons.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ember, Lois R.; And Others

1986-01-01

Discusses the global trends associated with the increasing levels of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFS) in the earth's atmosphere. Presents several ecological effects associated with these increases, along with some of the possible social and economic implications for the quality of life. Argues for more…

Globalization in science education: an inevitable and beneficial trend.

PubMed

Charlton, Bruce G; Andras, Peter

2006-01-01

Globalization is one aspect of the larger phenomenon of modernization, which describes societies characterized by progressive growth in the complexity of communications. Despite its inevitable problems, globalization is a generally desirable phenomenon, since it enables increased efficiency, effectiveness and capability of societies and thereby, potentially benefits most people most of the time. Scientific research was one of the first global communication systems, especially at its most advanced levels. And high quality scientific education at the post-doctoral level is also now essentially global. The next steps will be for lower level science education - at doctoral, undergraduate, and even school teaching levels - to become progressively globalized. This phenomenon is already happening in the mathematical and quantitative sciences, and will probably spread to include other kinds of science. But to be efficient requires the development of a trading medium of internationally standardized and quantitative educational credits - for instance, standard certificates, objective comparative examinations, and a hierarchical qualifications structure (which will almost certainly be based on the United States system). Globalized education also requires a common language for organizational communications, which is already in place for the quantitative and mathematical sciences, and will be increasingly the case as competence in a simplified form of international scientific English becomes more universal. As such a global science education system grows there will be increased competition and migration of teachers and students. The law of comparative advantage suggests that such mobility will encourage societies to specialize in what they do best. For example, some countries (even among wealthy nations) may provide little advanced scientific education, and import the necessary expertise from abroad - this situation seems to be developing in Germany and France, who lack any top-quality research universities. Conversely, just a few countries may provide the bulk of advanced science education teaching - as well as applied and pure research personnel - for the rest of the world: potentially China and India might supply most of world's mathematical expertise. In conclusion, there are two complementary aspects to the globalization of science education: these are standardization and specialization. We anticipate a simultaneous trend towards international convergence of basic educational structures, certificates and English usage; with increasing national differentiation of specialist educational functions.

Activin A and Late Postpartum Cardiac Dysfunction Among Women With Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy.

PubMed

Shahul, Sajid; Ramadan, Hadi; Nizamuddin, Junaid; Mueller, Ariel; Patel, Vijal; Dreixler, John; Tung, Avery; Lang, Roberto M; Weinert, Lynn; Nasim, Rabab; Chinthala, Sireesha; Rana, Sarosh

2018-07-01

Women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy have an increased risk of subsequent heart failure and cardiovascular disease when compared with women with normotensive pregnancies. Although the mechanisms underlying these findings are unclear, elevated levels of the biomarker activin A are associated with myocardial dysfunction and may have predictive value. We hypothesized that elevated levels of antepartum activin A levels would correlate with postpartum cardiac dysfunction in women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. We prospectively studied 85 women to determine whether increased antepartum activin A levels were associated with cardiac dysfunction at 1 year postpartum as measured by global longitudinal strain. Thirty-two patients were diagnosed with preeclampsia, 28 were diagnosed with gestational or chronic hypertension, and the remainder were nonhypertensive controls. Activin A levels were measured with ELISA both in the third antepartum trimester and at 1 year postpartum. Comprehensive echocardiograms including measurement of global longitudinal strain were also performed at enrollment and at 1 year postpartum. Antepartum activin A levels correlated with worsening antepartum global longitudinal strain ( r =0.70; P =0.0001). Across the entire cohort, elevated antepartum activin A levels were associated with the development of abnormal global longitudinal strain at 1 year (C statistic 0.74; P =0.004). This association remained significant after multivariable adjustment for clinically relevant confounders (C statistic 0.93; P =0.01). Postpartum activin A levels also correlated with increasing left ventricular mass index ( P =0.02), increasing mean arterial pressures ( P =0.02), and decreasing E' values ( P =0.01). Activin A may be a useful tool for identifying and monitoring patients at risk for postpartum development of cardiovascular disease. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Mapping the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's Global Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chaomei; Zhang, Jian; Vogeley, Michael S.

2009-07-01

The scientific capacity of a country is essential in todayâ's increasingly globalized science and technology ecosystem. Scientific capacity has four increasingly advanced levels of capabilities: absorbing, applying, creating, and retaining scientific knowledge. Moving to a advanced level requires additional skills and training. For example, it requires more specialized skills to apply scientific knowledge than to absorb knowledge. Similarly, making new discoveries requires more knowledge than applying existing procedures. Research has shown the importance of addressing specific, local problems while tapping into globally available expertise and resources. Accessing scientific knowledge is the first step towards absorbing knowledge. Low-income countries have increased their access to scientific literature on the Internet, but to what extent has this access led to more advanced levels of scientific capacity? Interdisciplinary and international collaboration may hold the key to creating and retaining knowledge. For example, creative ideas tend to be associated with inspirations originated from a diverse range of perspectives On the other hand, not all collaborations are productive. Assessing global science and technology needs to address both successes and failures and reasons behind them.

Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

2017-01-01

Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and Its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

2016-01-01

Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

The forest, the trees, and the leaves: Differences of processing across development.

PubMed

Krakowski, Claire-Sara; Poirel, Nicolas; Vidal, Julie; Roëll, Margot; Pineau, Arlette; Borst, Grégoire; Houdé, Olivier

2016-08-01

To act and think, children and adults are continually required to ignore irrelevant visual information to focus on task-relevant items. As real-world visual information is organized into structures, we designed a feature visual search task containing 3-level hierarchical stimuli (i.e., local shapes that constituted intermediate shapes that formed the global figure) that was presented to 112 participants aged 5, 6, 9, and 21 years old. This task allowed us to explore (a) which level is perceptively the most salient at each age (i.e., the fastest detected level) and (b) what kind of attentional processing occurs for each level across development (i.e., efficient processing: detection time does not increase with the number of stimuli on the display; less efficient processing: detection time increases linearly with the growing number of distractors). Results showed that the global level was the most salient at 5 years of age, whereas the global and intermediate levels were both salient for 9-year-olds and adults. Interestingly, at 6 years of age, the intermediate level was the most salient level. Second, all participants showed an efficient processing of both intermediate and global levels of hierarchical stimuli, and a less efficient processing of the local level, suggesting a local disadvantage rather than a global advantage in visual search. The cognitive cost for selecting the local target was higher for 5- and 6-year-old children compared to 9-year-old children and adults. These results are discussed with regards to the development of executive control. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Sea-Level Allowances along the World Coastlines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandewal, R.; Tsitsikas, C.; Reerink, T.; Slangen, A.; de Winter, R.; Muis, S.; Hunter, J. R.

2017-12-01

Sea level changes as a result of climate change. For projections we take ocean mass changes and volume changes into account. Including gravitational and rotational fingerprints this provide regional sea level changes. Hence we can calculate sea-level rise patterns based on CMIP5 projections. In order to take the variability around the mean state, which follows from the climate models, into account we use the concept of allowances. The allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be increased to maintain the likelihood of sea-level extremes. Here we use a global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels based on a global hydrodynamic model in order to calculate allowances. It is shown that the model compares in most regions favourably with tide gauge records from the GESLA data set. Combining the CMIP5 projections and the global hydrodynamical model we calculate sea-level allowances along the global coastlines and expand the number of points with a factor 50 relative to tide gauge based results. Results show that allowances increase gradually along continental margins with largest values near the equator. In general values are lower at midlatitudes both in Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Increased risk for extremes are typically 103-104 for the majority of the coastline under the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. Finally we will show preliminary results of the effect of changing wave heights based on the coordinated ocean wave project.

Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Robert J.

Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question “how much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?” This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an “IS92a world” based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding in 2100 is 16-388 million for the mid (55-cm) global-mean sea-level rise scenarios, and up to 510 million people/year for the high (96-cm) scenario. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be a significant problem if it is ignored, and hence it needs to be considered within the policy process considering climate change in terms of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (improved coastal management and planning) needs.

Deterioration and modification of the biosphere leading to irreversible climatic change of the global ecosystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The level, intensity, nature and impact of man's activities upon weather and climatic changes are explored. It is shown that industrialization leads to increased CO2 levels, atmospheric dust content and land surfaces changes. This in turn causes global climatic interactions which results in a general cooling trend. Global cooperation is advocated to stem environmental degradation and weather pattern interruption by the use of corrective mechanisms.

Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

2018-05-01

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.

How much might additional half a degree from a global warming of 1.5°C affects the extreme precipitation change in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Jiang, Z.

2017-12-01

In order to strengthen the global respond to the dangerous of global warming, Paris Agreement sets out two long-term warming goals: limiting global warming to well below 2˚C and purse effort to below 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels. However, future climate change risks in those two warming targets show significant regional differences. This article aims to study the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation change over China under those two global warming targets by using CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. Focus is put on the effects of the additional half degree in changing the extreme precipitation. Results show that the changes of extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios when global warming reaches the same threshold. Intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China increase by around 6% and 11% when global warming reaches 1.5˚C and 2˚C, respectively. The additional half a degree increase makes the intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China to increase by 4.5%, which translates to an increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Return period decreases by 5 years for the extra half degree warming when the 20-year return values are considered at the reference level.

A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slangen, A. B. A.; Adloff, F.; Jevrejeva, S.; Leclercq, P. W.; Marzeion, B.; Wada, Yoshihide; Winkelmann, R.

2016-01-01

Sea-level change (SLC) is a much-studied topic in the area of climate research, integrating a range of climate science disciplines, and is expected to impact coastal communities around the world. As a result, this field is rapidly moving, and the knowledge and understanding of processes contributing to SLC is increasing. Here, we discuss noteworthy recent developments in the projection of SLC contributions and in the global mean and regional sea-level projections. For the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to SLC, earlier estimates have been confirmed in recent research, but part of the source of this contribution has shifted from dynamics to surface melting. New insights into dynamic discharge processes and the onset of marine ice sheet instability increase the projected range for the Antarctic contribution by the end of the century. The contribution from both ice sheets is projected to increase further in the coming centuries to millennia. Recent updates of the global glacier outline database and new global glacier models have led to slightly lower projections for the glacier contribution to SLC (7-17 cm by 2100), but still project the glaciers to be an important contribution. For global mean sea-level projections, the focus has shifted to better estimating the uncertainty distributions of the projection time series, which may not necessarily follow a normal distribution. Instead, recent studies use skewed distributions with longer tails to higher uncertainties. Regional projections have been used to study regional uncertainty distributions, and regional projections are increasingly being applied to specific regions, countries, and coastal areas.

Globalization and Employment: Is Anxiety Justified?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Eddy

1996-01-01

Despite concerns that globalization will increase unemployment and wage inequality, drive down wages and labor standards, and threaten national policy autonomy, it is clear that national policies still determine employment levels and labor standards. However, the need to protect those damaged by globalization still exists. (SK)

The effect of sugar and processed food imports on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 172 countries.

PubMed

Lin, Tracy Kuo; Teymourian, Yasmin; Tursini, Maitri Shila

2018-04-14

Studies find that economic, political, and social globalization - as well as trade liberalization specifically - influence the prevalence of overweight and obesity in countries through increasing the availability and affordability of unhealthful food. However, what are the mechanisms that connect globalization, trade liberalization, and rising average body mass index (BMI)? We suggest that the various sub-components of globalization interact, leading individuals in countries that experience higher levels of globalization to prefer, import, and consume more imported sugar and processed food products than individuals in countries that experience lower levels of globalization. This study codes the amount of sugar and processed food imports in 172 countries from 1995 to 2010 using the United Nations Comtrade dataset. We employ country-specific fixed effects (FE) models, with robust standard errors, to examine the relationship between sugar and processed foods imports, globalization, and average BMI. To highlight further the relationship between the sugar and processed food import and average BMI, we employ a synthetic control method to calculate a counterfactual average BMI in Fiji. We find that sugar and processed food imports are part of the explanation to increasing average BMI in countries; after controlling for globalization and general imports and exports, sugar and processed food imports have a statistically and substantively significant effect in increasing average BMI. In the case of Fiji, the increased prevalence of obesity is associated with trade agreements and increased imports of sugar and processed food. The counterfactual estimates suggest that sugar and processed food imports are associated with a 0.5 increase in average BMI in Fiji.

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A. B. A.

2017-07-01

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

Orthogonal stack of global tide gauge sea level data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trupin, A.; Wahr, J.

1990-01-01

Yearly and monthly tide gauge sea level data from around the globe are fitted to numerically generated equilibrium tidal data to search for the 18.6 year lunar tide and 14 month pole tide. Both tides are clearly evident in the results, and their amplitudes and phases are found to be consistent with a global equilibrium response. Global, monthly sea level data from outside the Baltic sea and Gulf of Bothnia are fitted to global atmospheric pressure data to study the response of the ocean to pressure fluctuations. The response is found to be inverted barometer at periods greater than two months. Global averages of tide gauge data, after correcting for the effects of post glacial rebound on individual station records, reveal an increase in sea level over the last 80 years of between 1.1 mm/yr and 1.9 mm/yr.

The Role of International Research Collaboration in Enhancing Global Presence of an Institution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ao, Fiona Ka Wa

2012-01-01

In recent decades, higher education institutions have steadily increased their international involvement in response to globalization. High-level research is generally a key component in efforts to increase international visibility (Armstrong, 2007). International research collaborations are perceived to be an important way to enhance global…

Are There Levels of Consciousness?

PubMed

Bayne, Tim; Hohwy, Jakob; Owen, Adrian M

2016-06-01

The notion of a level of consciousness is a key construct in the science of consciousness. Not only is the term employed to describe the global states of consciousness that are associated with post-comatose disorders, epileptic absence seizures, anaesthesia, and sleep, it plays an increasingly influential role in theoretical and methodological contexts. However, it is far from clear what precisely a level of consciousness is supposed to be. This paper argues that the levels-based framework for conceptualizing global states of consciousness is untenable and develops in its place a multidimensional account of global states. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

10th NTES Conference: Nickel and arsenic compounds alter the epigenome of peripheral blood mononuclear cells

PubMed Central

Brocato, Jason; Costa, Max

2014-01-01

The mechanisms that underlie metal carcinogenesis are the subject of intense investigation ; however, data from in vitro and in vivo studies are starting to piece together a story that implicates epigenetics as a key player. Data from our lab has shown that nickel compounds inhibit dioxygenase enzymes by displacing iron in the active site. Arsenic is hypothesized to inhibit these enzymes by diminishing ascorbate levels- an important co-factor for dioxygenases. Inhibition of histone demethylase dioxygenases can increase histone methylation levels, which also may affect gene expression. Recently, our lab conducted a series of investigations in human subjects exposed to high levels of nickel or arsenic compounds. Global levels of histone modifications in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from exposed subjects were compared to low environmentally exposed controls. Results showed that nickel increased H3K4me3 and decreased H3K9me2 globally. Arsenic increased H3K9me2 and decreased H3K9ac globally. Other histone modifications affected by arsenic were sex-dependent. Nickel affected the expression of 2,756 genes in human PBMCs and many of the genes were involved in immune and carcinogenic pathways. This review will describe data from our lab that demonstrates for the first time that nickel and arsenic compounds affect global levels of histone modifications and gene expression in exposed human populations. PMID:24837610

The effect of OPC Factor on energy levels in healthy adults ages 45-65: a phase IIb randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

LaRiccia, Patrick J; Farrar, John T; Sammel, Mary D; Gallo, Joseph J

2008-07-01

To determine the efficacy of the food supplement OPC Factor to increase energy levels in healthy adults aged 45 to 65. Randomized, placebo-controlled, triple-blind crossover study. Twenty-five (25) healthy adults recruited from the University of Pennsylvania Health System. OPC Factor,trade mark (AlivenLabs, Lebanon, TN) a food supplement that contains oligomeric proanthocyanidins from grape seeds and pine bark along with other nutrient supplements including vitamins and minerals, was in the form of an effervescent powder. The placebo was similar in appearance and taste. Five outcome measurements were performed: (1) Energy subscale scores of the Activation-Deactivation Adjective Check List (AD ACL); (2) One (1) global question of percent energy change (Global Energy Percent Change); (3) One (1) global question of energy change measured on a Likert scale (Global Energy Scale Change); 4. One (1) global question of percent overall status change (Global Overall Status Percent Change); and (5) One (1) global question of overall status change measured on a Likert scale (Global Overall Status Scale Change). There were no carryover/period effects in the groups randomized to Placebo/Active Product sequence versus Active Product/Placebo sequence. Examination of the AD ACL Energy subscale scores for the Active Product versus Placebo comparison revealed no significant difference in the intention-to-treat (IT) analysis and the treatment received (TR) analysis. However, Global Energy Percent Change (p = 0.06) and Global Energy Scale Change (p = 0.09) both closely approached conventional levels of statistical significance for the active product in the IT analysis. Global Energy Percent Change (p = 0.05) and Global Energy Scale Change (p = 0.04) reached statistical significance in the TR analysis. A cumulative percent responders analysis graph indicated greater response rates for the active product. OPC Factor may increase energy levels in healthy adults aged 45-65 years. A larger study is recommended. Clinical Trials.gov identifier: NCT03318019.

Global economic prospects and the developing countries, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-12-01

The report`s central message is that the increasing integration of developing countries into the global economy constitutes perhaps the most important opportunity for raising the welfare of both developing and industrial countries over the long term. But the process of integration will not be without frictions that give rise to protectionist pressures. And, as recent events in Mexico have shown, it will increase the complexity of economic management for developing country policymakers. Globalization comes with liberalization, deregulation, and more mobile and potentially volatile cross-border capital flows, which means that sound macroeconomic management commands an increasingly high premium. Penalties for policymore » errors rise. Globalization thus requires closer monitoring and quicker policy responses at the country, regional, and global levels.« less

Some coolness concerning global warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindzen, Richard S.

1990-01-01

The greenhouse effect hypothesis is discussed. The effects of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere on global temperature changes are analyzed. The problems with models currently used to predict climatic changes are examined.

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

PubMed

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Food Security: Selected Global and U.S. Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kocher, Megan

2015-01-01

Food security is researched and dealt with on local, regional, national, and global levels with solutions ranging from local farmers' market initiatives to increasing crop yields through genetically modified plants to streamlining global supply chains. Because of its broad, interdisciplinary nature, it is necessary to narrow the focus of this…

International Education: The International Baccalaureate, Montessori and Global Citizenship

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brunold-Conesa, Cynthia

2010-01-01

The International Baccalaureate (IB) programs and Montessori education both claim to promote values associated with global citizenship in order to help prepare students for new challenges presented by an increasingly globalized world. While the IB's secondary programs are widespread in international schools, Montessori programs at that level are…

Shifting Tides in Global Higher Education: Agency, Autonomy, and Governance in the Global Network. Global Studies in Education, Volume 9

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Witt, Mary Allison

2011-01-01

The increasing connection among higher education institutions worldwide is well documented. What is less understood is how this connectivity is enacted and manifested on specific levels of the global education network. This book details the planning process of a multi-institutional program in engineering between institutions in the US and…

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verburg, Peter H.; Ellis, Erle C.; Letourneau, Aurelien

2011-07-01

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

Concerns--High Sea Levels and Temperatures Seen Next Century.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Paul R.

1984-01-01

A National Research Council committee recently concluded that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will "most likely" double by late in the next century, causing an increase in the earth's average temperature. Effects of the increase on sea levels, global climate, and other parameters are discussed. (JN)

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have significant policy implications by affecting food prices and supplies.

Global planning of several plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bescos, Sylvie

1992-01-01

This paper discusses an attempt to solve the problem of planning several pharmaceutical plants at a global level. The interest in planning at this level is to increase the global control over the production process, to improve its overall efficiency, and to reduce the need for interaction between production plants. In order to reduce the complexity of this problem and to make it tractable, some abstractions were made. Based on these abstractions, a prototype is being developed within the framework of the EUREKA project PROTOS, using Constraint Logic Programming techniques.

Barriers to global health development: An international quantitative survey

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Global health’s goal of reducing low-and-middle-income country versus high-income country health disparities faces complex challenges. Although there have been discussions of barriers, there has not been a broad-based, quantitative survey of such barriers. Methods 432 global health professionals were invited via email to participate in an online survey, with 268 (62%) participating. The survey assessed participants’ (A) demographic and global health background, (B) perceptions regarding 66 barriers’ seriousness, (C) detailed ratings of barriers designated most serious, (D) potential solutions. Results Thirty-four (of 66) barriers were seen as moderately or more serious, highlighting the widespread, significant challenges global health development faces. Perceived barrier seriousness differed significantly across domains: Resource Limitations mean = 2.47 (0–4 Likert scale), Priority Selection mean = 2.20, Corruption, Lack of Competence mean = 1.87, Social and Cultural Barriers mean = 1.68. Some system-level predictors showed significant but relatively limited relations. For instance, for Global Health Domain, HIV and Mental Health had higher levels of perceived Social and Cultural Barriers than other GH Domains. Individual–level global health experience predictors had small but significant effects, with seriousness of (a) Corruption, Lack of Competence, and (b) Priority Selection barriers positively correlated with respondents’ level of LMIC-oriented (e.g., weeks/year spent in LMIC) but Academic Global Health Achievement (e.g., number of global health publications) negatively correlated with overall barrier seriousness. Conclusions That comparatively few system-level predictors (e.g., Organization Type) were significant suggests these barriers may be relatively fundamental at the system-level. Individual-level and system-level effects do have policy implications; e.g., Priority Selection barriers were among the most serious, yet effects on seriousness of how LMIC-oriented a professional was versus level of academic global health achievement ran in opposite directions, suggesting increased discussion of priorities between LMIC-based and other professionals may be useful. It is hoped the 22 suggested solutions will provide useful ideas for addressing global health barriers. PMID:28972971

Barriers to global health development: An international quantitative survey.

PubMed

Weiss, Bahr; Pollack, Amie Alley

2017-01-01

Global health's goal of reducing low-and-middle-income country versus high-income country health disparities faces complex challenges. Although there have been discussions of barriers, there has not been a broad-based, quantitative survey of such barriers. 432 global health professionals were invited via email to participate in an online survey, with 268 (62%) participating. The survey assessed participants' (A) demographic and global health background, (B) perceptions regarding 66 barriers' seriousness, (C) detailed ratings of barriers designated most serious, (D) potential solutions. Thirty-four (of 66) barriers were seen as moderately or more serious, highlighting the widespread, significant challenges global health development faces. Perceived barrier seriousness differed significantly across domains: Resource Limitations mean = 2.47 (0-4 Likert scale), Priority Selection mean = 2.20, Corruption, Lack of Competence mean = 1.87, Social and Cultural Barriers mean = 1.68. Some system-level predictors showed significant but relatively limited relations. For instance, for Global Health Domain, HIV and Mental Health had higher levels of perceived Social and Cultural Barriers than other GH Domains. Individual-level global health experience predictors had small but significant effects, with seriousness of (a) Corruption, Lack of Competence, and (b) Priority Selection barriers positively correlated with respondents' level of LMIC-oriented (e.g., weeks/year spent in LMIC) but Academic Global Health Achievement (e.g., number of global health publications) negatively correlated with overall barrier seriousness. That comparatively few system-level predictors (e.g., Organization Type) were significant suggests these barriers may be relatively fundamental at the system-level. Individual-level and system-level effects do have policy implications; e.g., Priority Selection barriers were among the most serious, yet effects on seriousness of how LMIC-oriented a professional was versus level of academic global health achievement ran in opposite directions, suggesting increased discussion of priorities between LMIC-based and other professionals may be useful. It is hoped the 22 suggested solutions will provide useful ideas for addressing global health barriers.

Analysis of the trade-off between high crop yield and low yield instability at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David

2016-10-01

Yield dynamics of major crops species vary remarkably among continents. Worldwide distribution of cropland influences both the expected levels and the interannual variability of global yields. An expansion of cultivated land in the most productive areas could theoretically increase global production, but also increase global yield instability if the most productive regions are characterized by high interannual yield variability. In this letter, we use portfolio analysis to quantify the tradeoff between the expected values and the interannual variance of global yield. We compute optimal frontiers for four crop species i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat and show how the distribution of cropland among large world regions can be optimized to either increase expected global crop production or decrease its interannual variability. We also show that a preferential allocation of cropland in the most productive regions can increase global expected yield at the expense of yield stability. Theoretically, optimizing the distribution of a small fraction of total cultivated areas can help find a good compromise between low instability and high crop yields at the global scale.

Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming.

PubMed

Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

2016-02-26

The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to longevity of animals will become very crucial challenge to biologists of the present millennium.

Critical interactions between Global Fund-supported programmes and health systems: a case study in Indonesia.

PubMed

Desai, Monica; Rudge, James W; Adisasmito, Wiku; Mounier-Jack, Sandra; Coker, Richard

2010-11-01

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has played an important role in financing the response to HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) in Indonesia. As part of a series of case studies, we assessed the nature and extent of integration of Global Fund portfolios into the national HIV and TB programmes, integration of the HIV and TB programmes within the general health system, and system-wide effects of Global Fund support on the health care system in Indonesia. The study relied on a literature review and interviews with 22 key informants using the Systemic Rapid Assessment Toolkit and thematic analysis. Global Fund programmes in Indonesia are highly vertical and centralized, in contrast with the decentralized nature of the Indonesian health system. Consequently, there is more integration of all functions at local levels than centrally. There is a high level of integration of planning of Global Fund HIV and TB portfolios into the National AIDS and TB programmes and some limited integration of these programmes with other disease programmes, through joint working groups. Other synergies include strengthening of stewardship and governance and increased staff recruitment encouraged by incentive payments and training. Monitoring and evaluation functions of the Global Fund programmes are not integrated with the disease programmes, with parallel indicators and reporting systems. System-wide effects include greater awareness of governance and stewardship in response to the temporary suspension of Global Fund funding in 2008, and increased awareness of the need to integrate programme planning, financing and service delivery. Global Fund investment has freed up resources for other programmes, particularly at local levels. However, this may hinder a robust exit strategy from Global Fund funding. Furthermore, Global Fund monetary incentives may result in staff shifting into HIV and TB programmes.

Eustatic control of turbidites and winnowed turbidites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shanmugam, G.; Moiola, R.J.

1982-05-01

Global changes in sea level, primarily the results of tectonism and glaciation, control deep-sea sedimentation. During periods of low sea level the frequency of turbidity currents is greatly increased. Episodes of low sea level also cause vigorous contour currents, which winnow away the fines of turbidites. In the rock record, the occurrence of most turbidites and winnowed turbidities closely corresponds to global lowstands of paleo-sea level. This observation may be useful in predicting the occurrence of deep-sea reservoir facies in the geologic record.

Think Globally, Act Locally: Teaching Climate Change through Digital Inquiry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castek, Jill; Dwyer, Bernadette

2018-01-01

In the 21st century, our students increasingly communicate, connect, collaborate, and interact with diverse cultures and traditions around the world, so they need to develop global literacy. This department column highlights research and research-to-practice at the international level to bring global best teaching practices to the forefront.…

Quantifying Globalization in Social Work Research: A 10-Year Review of American Social Work Journals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agbényiga, DeBrenna L.; Huang, Lihua

2014-01-01

Measured by the prevalence of journal article contributions, geographic coverage, and international collaboration, this literature review found an increasing level of globalization with respect to American social work research and contribution to the social work profession from 2000-2009. Findings suggest changes are needed in global awareness and…

"Nobody Spoke Like I Did": Picture Books, Critical Literacy, and Global Contexts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Callow, Jon

2017-01-01

In the 21st century, our students increasingly communicate, connect, collaborate, and interact with diverse cultures and traditions around the world, so they need to develop global literacy. This department column highlights research and research-to-practice at the international level to bring global best teaching practices to the forefront.…

Incorporating Global Englishes into the ELT Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galloway, Nicola; Rose, Heath

2018-01-01

Increasing students' awareness of the globalization of English is a daunting task for teachers, especially considering the lack of globally oriented ELT materials available. This study builds on previous research in response to recent calls for more classroom-level research, and reports on the use of a student presentation task to introduce and…

Globalization and suicide: an ecological study across five regions of the world.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; McClure, Rod; De Leo, Diego

2012-01-01

The impact of globalization on health is recognized to be influenced by country and regional-level factors. This study aimed to investigate the possible relationship between globalization and suicide in five world regions. An index measure of globalization was developed at the country level over 1980 to 2006. The association between the index and sex specific suicide rates was tested using a fixed-effect regression model. Over time, the globalization index seemed to be associated with increased suicide rates in Asia and the Eastern European/Baltic region. In contrast, it was associated with decreased rates in Scandinavia. There was no significant relationship between globalization and suicide in Southern and Western Europe. The effects of globalization could be determined by specific regional (i.e., cultural and societal) factors. Identification of these mediators might provide opportunities to protect countries from the adverse impacts of globalization.

A snapshot of global health education at North American universities.

PubMed

Lencucha, Raphael; Mohindra, Katia

2014-03-01

Global health education is becoming increasingly prominent in North America. It is widely agreed upon that global health is an important aspect of an education in the health sciences and increasingly in other disciplines such as law, economics and political science. There is currently a paucity of studies examining the content of global health courses at the post-secondary level. The purpose of our research is to identify the content areas being covered in global health curricula in North American universities, as a first step in mapping global health curricula across North America. We collected 67 course syllabi from 31 universities and analyzed the topics covered in the course. This snapshot of global health education will aid students searching for global health content, as well as educators and university administrators who are developing or expanding global health programs in Canada and the United States.

Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard.

PubMed

Vousdoukas, Michalis I; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Verlaan, Martin; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P; Feyen, Luc

2018-06-18

Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34-76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58-172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken.

Global DNA methylation loss associated with mercury contamination and aging in the American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis).

PubMed

Nilsen, Frances M; Parrott, Benjamin B; Bowden, John A; Kassim, Brittany L; Somerville, Stephen E; Bryan, Teresa A; Bryan, Colleen E; Lange, Ted R; Delaney, J Patrick; Brunell, Arnold M; Long, Stephen E; Guillette, Louis J

2016-03-01

Mercury is a widespread environmental contaminant with exposures eliciting a well-documented catalog of adverse effects. Yet, knowledge regarding the underlying mechanisms by which mercury exposures are translated into biological effects remains incomplete. DNA methylation is an epigenetic modification that is sensitive to environmental cues, and alterations in DNA methylation at the global level are associated with a variety of diseases. Using a liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry-based (LC-MS/MS) approach, global DNA methylation levels were measured in red blood cells of 144 wild American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) from 6 sites with variable levels of mercury contamination across Florida's north-south axis. Variation in mercury concentrations measured in whole blood was highly associated with location, allowing the comparison of global DNA methylation levels across different "treatments" of mercury. Global DNA methylation in alligators across all locations was weakly associated with increased mercury exposure. However, a much more robust relationship was observed in those animals sampled from locations more highly contaminated with mercury. Also, similar to other vertebrates, global DNA methylation appears to decline with age in alligators. The relationship between age-associated loss of global DNA methylation and varying mercury exposures was examined to reveal a potential interaction. These findings demonstrate that global DNA methylation levels are associated with mercury exposure, and give insights into interactions between contaminants, aging, and epigenetics. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Benefits of High Strength Microalloyed Rebar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Michael

The amount of reinforcing bar (or "rebar") currently produced globally is estimated at over 400 million tons per year. With global infra-structure demands increasing, this production level is forecasted for continued expansion. Product requirements along with production levels are ever increasing, but as an industry there is minimal to no effort being put forth to produce a better product. Rather, rebar is being commoditized to a point where price is the only real consideration taken into account when purchasing rebar for major projects. This "pricing only" mentality results in a product that barely meets minimum standards.

Hydropower versus irrigation—an analysis of global patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Ruijie; Cai, Ximing; Ringler, Claudia; Zhu, Tingju

2017-03-01

Numerous reservoirs around the world provide multiple flow regulation functions; key among these are hydroelectricity production and water releases for irrigation. These functions contribute to energy and food security at national, regional and global levels. While reservoir operations for hydroelectricity production might support irrigation, there are also well-known cases where hydroelectricity production reduces water availability for irrigated food production. This study assesses these relationships at the global level using machine-learning techniques and multi-source datasets. We find that 54% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 507 thousand Megawatt) competes with irrigation. Regions where such competition exists include the Central United States, northern Europe, India, Central Asia and Oceania. On the other hand, 8% of global installed hydropower capacity (around 79 thousand Megawatt) complements irrigation, particularly in the Yellow and Yangtze River Basins of China, the East and West Coasts of the United States and most river basins of Southeast Asia, Canada and Russia. No significant relationship is found for the rest of the world. We further analyze the impact of climate variables on the relationships between hydropower and irrigation. Reservoir flood control functions that operate under increased precipitation levels appear to constrain hydroelectricity production in various river basins of the United States, South China and most basins in Europe and Oceania. On the other hand, increased reservoir evaporative losses and higher irrigation requirements due to higher potential evaporation levels may lead to increased tradeoffs between irrigation and hydropower due to reduced water availability in regions with warmer climates, such as India, South China, and the Southern United States. With most reservoirs today being built for multiple purposes, it is important for policymakers to understand and plan for growing tradeoffs between key functions. This will be particularly important as climate mitigation calls for an increase in renewable energy while agro-hydrological impacts of climate change, population and economic growth and associated dietary change increase the need for irrigated food production in many regions round the world.

5-Azacytidine combined with 2,4-D improves somatic embryogenesis of Acca sellowiana (O. Berg) Burret by means of changes in global DNA methylation levels.

PubMed

Fraga, Hugo P F; Vieira, Leila N; Caprestano, Clarissa A; Steinmacher, Douglas A; Micke, Gustavo A; Spudeit, Daniel A; Pescador, Rosete; Guerra, Miguel P

2012-12-01

DNA methylation is an epigenetic regulatory mechanism of gene expression which can be associated with developmental phases and in vitro morphogenetic competence in plants. The present work evaluated the effects of 5-azacytidine (AzaC) and 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) on Acca sellowiana somatic embryogenesis (SE) and global DNA methylation levels by high-performance liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (HPLC/MS/MS). 2,4-D-free treatments revealed no somatic embryo formation in both accessions tested. Treatments supplemented with 2,4-D pulse plus AzaC in the culture medium resulted in increased embryo formation. In AzaC-free treatment, HPLC/MS/MS analysis showed a gradual increase in methylation levels in cultures of both accessions tested during SE induction. Treatment with AzaC and 2,4-D-free resulted in a marked decrease in methylation for both accessions, ranging from 37.6 to 20.8 %. In treatment with 2,4-D and AzaC combined, the 85 accession showed increasing global methylation levels. Otherwise, the 101X458 accession, in the same treatment, showed a decrease between 10 and 20 days, followed by an increase after 30 days (39.5, 36.2 and 41.6 %). These results indicate that 2,4-D pulse combined with AzaC improves SE induction. However, the conversion phase showed that although positively influencing SE induction, AzaC had a dysregulatory effect on the stage of autotrophic plant formation, resulting in significantly lower conversion rates. The results suggest that DNA methylation dramatically influences SE in Acca sellowiana, and global DNA methylation dynamics are related to morphogenetic response. 5-Azacytidine combined with 2,4-D increases the number of Acca sellowiana somatic embryos. Global DNA methylation is directly affected by these compounds.

Aberrant DNA methylation patterns in diabetic nephropathy

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to evaluate whether global levels of DNA methylation status were associated with albuminuria and progression of diabetic nephropathy in a case-control study of 123 patients with type 2 diabetes- 53 patients with albuminuria and 70 patients without albuminuria. Methods The 5-methyl cytosine content was assessed by reverse phase high pressure liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) of peripheral blood mononuclear cells to determine individual global DNA methylation status in two groups. Results Global DNA methylation levels were significantly higher in patients with albuminuria compared with those in normal range of albuminuria (p = 0.01). There were significant differences in global levels of DNA methylation in relation to albuminuria (p = 0.028) and an interesting pattern of increasing global levels of DNA methylation in terms of albuminuria severity. In patients with micro- and macro albuminuria, we found no significant correlations between global DNA methylation levels and duration of diabetes (p > 0.05). In both sub groups, there were not significant differences between global DNA methylation levels with good and poor glycaemic control (p > 0.05). In addition, in patients with albuminuria, no differences in DNA methylation levels were observed between patients with and without other risk factors including age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidaemia and obesity. Conclusions These data may be helpful in further studies to develop novel biomarkers and new strategies for clinical care of patients at risk of diabetic nephropathy. PMID:25028646

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context.

PubMed

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Rutting, Lucas; Havlík, Petr; Islam, Shahnila; Bayala, Jules; Valin, Hugo; Kadi Kadi, Hamé Abdou; Thornton, Philip; Zougmore, Robert

2017-07-01

The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate change. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population coupled with rising incomes leads to increases in the region's imports. For West Africa, climate change is projected to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and a lack of investment may exacerbate these effects. Linking multi-stakeholder regional scenarios to the global SSPs ensures scenarios that are regionally appropriate and useful for policy development as evidenced in the case study, while allowing for a critical link to global contexts.

Does Climate Literacy Matter? A Case Study of U.S. Students' Level of Concern about Anthropogenic Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bedford, Daniel

2016-01-01

Educators seeking to address global warming in their classrooms face numerous challenges, including the question of whether student opinions about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) can change in response to increased knowledge about the climate system. This article analyzes survey responses from 458 students at a primarily undergraduate…

A new method to estimate global mass transport and its implication for sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, S.; Heki, K.

2017-12-01

Estimates of changes in global land mass by using GRACE observations can be achieved by two methods, a mascon method and a forward modeling method. However, results from these two methods show inconsistent secular trend. Sea level budget can be adopted to validate the consistency among observations of sea level rise by altimetry, steric change by the Argo project, and mass change by GRACE. Mascon products from JPL, GSFC and CSR are compared here, we find that all these three products cannot achieve a reconciled sea level budget, while this problem can be solved by a new forward modeling method. We further investigate the origin of this difference, and speculate that it is caused by the signal leakage from the ocean mass. Generally, it is well recognized that land signals leak into oceans, but it also happens the other way around. We stress the importance of correction of leakage from the ocean in the estimation of global land masses. Based on a reconciled sea level budget, we confirmed that global sea level rise has been accelerating significantly over 2005-2015, as a result of the ongoing global temperature increase.

Long-memory and the sea level-temperature relationship: a fractional cointegration approach.

PubMed

Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Heres, David R; Martínez-Hernández, L Catalina

2014-01-01

Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level.

First order sea-level cycles and supercontinent break up

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heller, P.L.; Angevine, C.L.

1985-01-01

The authors have developed a model that successfully predicts the approximate magnitude and timing of long term sea-level change without relying on short term increases in global spreading rates. The model involves the following key assumptions. (1) Ocean basins have two types of area/age distributions; Pacific ocean basins are rimmed by subduction zones and have triangular distributions; and Atlantic ocean basins which open at constant rates, have no subduction, and so have rectangular distributions. (2) The total area of the global ocean is constant so that the Pacific basin must close as the Atlantic opens. These assumptions approximate modern globalmore » ocean basin conditions. The model begins with supercontinent break up. As the Atlantic begins to open, the mean age of the global ocean decreases, the mean depth of the sea floor shallows, and sea level, therefore, rises. Once the Atlantic occupies more than 8 to 10% of the global ocean area, the mean age and depth of the ocean floor increases resulting in a sea-level fall. The model can be applied to the mid-Cretaceous sea-level high stand which followed break up of Pangea by 80 to 100 Ma. Based on average Atlantic opening rates, sea level rises to a peak of 44 m at 80 Ma after opening began and then falls by 84 m to the present. Thus the model is capable of explaining approximately half of the total magnitude of the post-mid-Cretaceous eustatic fall without invoking short-term changes in global spreading rates. In addition, the model predicts the observed time lag between supercontinent break up and sea-level high stand for both Mesozoic as well as early Paleozoic time.« less

Increased Global Functional Connectivity Correlates with LSD-Induced Ego Dissolution.

PubMed

Tagliazucchi, Enzo; Roseman, Leor; Kaelen, Mendel; Orban, Csaba; Muthukumaraswamy, Suresh D; Murphy, Kevin; Laufs, Helmut; Leech, Robert; McGonigle, John; Crossley, Nicolas; Bullmore, Edward; Williams, Tim; Bolstridge, Mark; Feilding, Amanda; Nutt, David J; Carhart-Harris, Robin

2016-04-25

Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) is a non-selective serotonin-receptor agonist that was first synthesized in 1938 and identified as (potently) psychoactive in 1943. Psychedelics have been used by indigenous cultures for millennia [1]; however, because of LSD's unique potency and the timing of its discovery (coinciding with a period of major discovery in psychopharmacology), it is generally regarded as the quintessential contemporary psychedelic [2]. LSD has profound modulatory effects on consciousness and was used extensively in psychological research and psychiatric practice in the 1950s and 1960s [3]. In spite of this, however, there have been no modern human imaging studies of its acute effects on the brain. Here we studied the effects of LSD on intrinsic functional connectivity within the human brain using fMRI. High-level association cortices (partially overlapping with the default-mode, salience, and frontoparietal attention networks) and the thalamus showed increased global connectivity under the drug. The cortical areas showing increased global connectivity overlapped significantly with a map of serotonin 2A (5-HT2A) receptor densities (the key site of action of psychedelic drugs [4]). LSD also increased global integration by inflating the level of communication between normally distinct brain networks. The increase in global connectivity observed under LSD correlated with subjective reports of "ego dissolution." The present results provide the first evidence that LSD selectively expands global connectivity in the brain, compromising the brain's modular and "rich-club" organization and, simultaneously, the perceptual boundaries between the self and the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global and segmental kinematic changes following sequential resection of posterior osteoligamentous structures in the lumbar spine: An in vitro biomechanical investigation using pure moment testing protocols.

PubMed

Chamoli, Uphar; Korkusuz, Mert H; Sabnis, Ashutosh B; Manolescu, Andrei R; Tsafnat, Naomi; Diwan, Ashish D

2015-11-01

Lumbar spinal surgeries may compromise the integrity of posterior osteoligamentous structures implicating mechanical stability. Circumstances necessitating a concomitant surgery to achieve restabilisation are not well understood. The main objective of this in vitro study was to quantify global and segmental (index and adjacent levels) kinematic changes in the lumbar spine following sequential resection of the posterior osteoligamentous structures using pure moment testing protocols. Six fresh frozen cadaveric kangaroo lumbar spines (T12-S1) were tested under a bending moment in flexion-extension, bilateral bending, and axial torsion in a 6-degree-of-freedom Kinematic Spine Simulator. Specimens were tested in the following order: intact state (D0), after interspinous and supraspinous ligaments transection between L4 and L5 (D1), further after a total bilateral facetectomy between L4 and L5 (D2). Segmental motions at the cephalad, damaged, and caudal levels were recorded using an infrared-based motion tracking device. Following D1, no significant change in the global range of motion was observed in any of the bending planes. Following D2, a significant increase in the global range of motion from the baseline (D0) was observed in axial torsion (median normalised change +20%). At the damaged level, D2 resulted in a significant increase in the segmental range of motion in flexion-extension (+77%) and axial torsion (+492%). Additionally, a significant decrease in the segmental range of motion in axial torsion (-35%) was observed at the caudal level following D2. These results suggest that a multi-segment lumbar spine acts as a mechanism for transmitting motions, and that a compromised joint may significantly alter motion transfer to adjacent segments. We conclude that the interspinous and supraspinous ligaments play a modest role in restricting global spinal motions within physiologic limits. Following interspinous and supraspinous ligaments transection, a total bilateral facetectomy resulted in a significant increase in axial torsion motion, both at global and damaged levels, accompanied with a compensatory decrease in motion at the caudal level. © IMechE 2015.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

When Increasing Stakes Need Not Mean Increasing Standards: The Case of the New York State Global History and Geography Exam

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grant, S. G.; Derme-Insinna, Alison; Gradwell, Jill M.; Pullano, Lynn; Lauricella, Ann Marie; Tzezo, Kathryn

2002-01-01

In New York, state-level policymakers have invested considerable political and economic capital in new tests as both a measure of accountability and as a vehicle for increased educational standards. In this study, we look at how 9th and 10th grade global history teachers are making sense of the first administration of a new 10th grade global…

Food Surplus and Its Climate Burdens.

PubMed

Hiç, Ceren; Pradhan, Prajal; Rybski, Diego; Kropp, Jürgen P

2016-04-19

Avoiding food loss and waste may counteract the increasing food demand and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agricultural sector. This is crucial because of limited options available to increase food production. In the year 2010, food availability was 20% higher than was required on a global scale. Thus, a more sustainable food production and adjusted consumption would have positive environmental effects. This study provides a systematic approach to estimate consumer level food waste on a country scale and globally, based on food availability and requirements. The food requirement estimation considers demographic development, body weights, and physical activity levels. Surplus between food availability and requirements of a given country is considered as food waste. The global food requirement changed from 2,300 kcal/cap/day to 2,400 kcal/cap/day during the last 50 years, while food surplus grew from 310 kcal/cap/day to 510 kcal/cap/day. Similarly, GHG emissions related to the food surplus increased from 130 Mt CO2eq/yr to 530 Mt CO2eq/yr, an increase of more than 300%. Moreover, the global food surplus may increase up to 850 kcal/cap/day, while the total food requirement will increase only by 2%-20% by 2050. Consequently, GHG emissions associated with the food waste may also increase tremendously to 1.9-2.5 Gt CO2eq/yr.

Vascular endothelial growth factor upregulation in transient global ischemia induced by cardiac arrest and resuscitation in rat brain.

PubMed

Pichiule, P; Chávez, J C; Xu, K; LaManna, J C

1999-12-10

This study examined vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression in rat brain after reversible global cerebral ischemia produced by cardiac arrest and resuscitation. Three alternative splicing forms, VEGF(188), VEGF(164) and VEGF(120), were observed in cortex, hippocampus and brainstem by RT-PCR analysis. After 24 h of recovery from cardiac arrest, mRNA levels corresponding to VEGF(188) and VEGF(164) were significantly increased by about double in all the regions analyzed. These mRNA levels remained elevated at 24 and 48 h of recovery but returned to basal expression after 7 days of recovery. Changes in VEGF(120) expression after cardiac arrest did not reach statistical significance. VEGF protein expression measured by Western blot was also increased by about double at 24 and 48 h of recovery but returned to control levels after 7 days of recovery. VEGF immunohistochemistry localized this increased expression mostly associated with astrocytes. Considering its biological activity, VEGF induction after cardiac arrest and resuscitation may be responsible for the increased vascular permeability and the resultant vasogenic edema, found 24-48 h after reversible global ischemia.

Perceptions about the impact of global medical travel on poorer populations in India.

PubMed

Gifford, Blair; Park, SinYoung; Anand, Sharmila

2009-01-01

There is anecdotal evidence that the increasing focus on global medical travel health services for foreigners in India is likely to exacerbate the different levels of access to health services between India's wealthy and poor populations. However, surveyed physicians (n=177) at three hospitals in New Delhi indicated positive attitudes to global medical travel, especially in regards to global medical travel's effects on poorer populations. Overall, these results appear to be the result of respondents' support of the economic development, new medical technologies, and increased medical training that comes from the health infrastructure investments needed to attract foreign patients.

Does Global Progress on Sanitation Really Lag behind Water? An Analysis of Global Progress on Community- and Household-Level Access to Safe Water and Sanitation

PubMed Central

Cumming, Oliver; Elliott, Mark; Overbo, Alycia; Bartram, Jamie

2014-01-01

Safe drinking water and sanitation are important determinants of human health and wellbeing and have recently been declared human rights by the international community. Increased access to both were included in the Millennium Development Goals under a single dedicated target for 2015. This target was reached in 2010 for water but sanitation will fall short; however, there is an important difference in the benchmarks used for assessing global access. For drinking water the benchmark is community-level access whilst for sanitation it is household-level access, so a pit latrine shared between households does not count toward the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target. We estimated global progress for water and sanitation under two scenarios: with equivalent household- and community-level benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that the “sanitation deficit” is apparent only when household-level sanitation access is contrasted with community-level water access. When equivalent benchmarks are used for water and sanitation, the global deficit is as great for water as it is for sanitation, and sanitation progress in the MDG-period (1990–2015) outstrips that in water. As both drinking water and sanitation access yield greater benefits at the household-level than at the community-level, we conclude that any post–2015 goals should consider a household-level benchmark for both. PMID:25502659

Does global progress on sanitation really lag behind water? An analysis of global progress on community- and household-level access to safe water and sanitation.

PubMed

Cumming, Oliver; Elliott, Mark; Overbo, Alycia; Bartram, Jamie

2014-01-01

Safe drinking water and sanitation are important determinants of human health and wellbeing and have recently been declared human rights by the international community. Increased access to both were included in the Millennium Development Goals under a single dedicated target for 2015. This target was reached in 2010 for water but sanitation will fall short; however, there is an important difference in the benchmarks used for assessing global access. For drinking water the benchmark is community-level access whilst for sanitation it is household-level access, so a pit latrine shared between households does not count toward the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target. We estimated global progress for water and sanitation under two scenarios: with equivalent household- and community-level benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that the "sanitation deficit" is apparent only when household-level sanitation access is contrasted with community-level water access. When equivalent benchmarks are used for water and sanitation, the global deficit is as great for water as it is for sanitation, and sanitation progress in the MDG-period (1990-2015) outstrips that in water. As both drinking water and sanitation access yield greater benefits at the household-level than at the community-level, we conclude that any post-2015 goals should consider a household-level benchmark for both.

Measuring success in global health diplomacy: lessons from marketing food to children in India.

PubMed

Smith, Richard; Irwin, Rachel

2016-06-16

Global health diplomacy (GHD) focuses on international negotiation; principally between nation states, but increasingly non-state actors However, agreements made at the global level have to be enacted at the national, and in some cases the sub-national level. This presents two related problems: (1) how can success be measured in global health diplomacy and (2) at what point should success be evaluated? This commentary highlights these issues through examining the relationship between India and the WHO Set of Recommendations on the Marketing of Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages to Children, endorsed by Resolution WHA63.14 at the 63rd World Health Assembly in 2010.

Method for Assessing Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Navigation Gate Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obrien, P. S.; White, K. D.; Friedman, D.

2015-12-01

Coastal navigation infrastructure may be highly vulnerable to changing climate, including increasing sea levels and altered frequency and intensity of coastal storms. Future gate operations impacted by global sea level rise will pose unique challenges, especially for structures 50 years and older. Our approach is to estimate future changes in gate operational frequency based on a bootstrapping method to forecast future water levels. A case study will be presented to determine future changes in frequency of operations over the next 100 years. A statistical model in the R programming language was developed to apply future sea level rise projections using the three sea level rise scenarios prescribed by USACE Engineer Regulation ER 1100-2-8162. Information derived from the case study will help forecast changes in operational costs caused by increased gate operations and inform timing of decisions on adaptation measures.

Financing tuberculosis control: the role of a global financial monitoring system.

PubMed

Floyd, Katherine; Pantoja, Andrea; Dye, Christopher

2007-05-01

Control of tuberculosis (TB), like health care in general, costs money. To sustain TB control at current levels, and to make further progress so that global targets can be achieved, information about funding needs, sources of funding, funding gaps and expenditures is important at global, regional, national and sub-national levels. Such data can be used for resource mobilization efforts; to document how funding requirements and gaps are changing over time; to assess whether increases in funding can be translated into increased expenditures and whether increases in expenditure are producing improvements in programme performance; and to identify which countries or regions have the greatest needs and funding gaps. In this paper, we discuss a global system for financial monitoring of TB control that was established in WHO in 2002. By early 2007, this system had accounted for actual or planned expenditures of more than US$ 7 billion and was systematically reporting financial data for countries that carry more than 90% of the global burden of TB. We illustrate the value of this system by presenting major findings that have been produced for the period 2002-2007, including results that are relevant to the achievement of global targets for TB control set for 2005 and 2015. We also analyse the strengths and limitations of the system and its relevance to other health-care programmes.

Wastewater Treatment Energy Recovery Potential For Adaptation To Global Change: An Integrated Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breach, Patrick A.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

2018-04-01

Approximately 20% of wastewaters globally do not receive treatment, whereas wastewater discharges are projected to increase, thereby leading to excessive water quality degradation of surface waters on a global scale. Increased treatment could help alleviate water quality issues by constructing more treatment plants; however, in many areas there exist economic constraints. Energy recovery methods including the utilization of biogas and incineration of biosolids generated during the treatment process may help to alleviate treatment costs. This study explores the potential for investments in energy recovery from wastewater to increase treatment levels and thus improve surface water quality. This was done by examining the relationships between nutrient over-enrichment, wastewater treatment, and energy recovery at a global scale using system dynamics simulation as part of the ANEMI integrated assessment model. The results show that a significant amount of energy can be recovered from wastewater, which helps to alleviate some of the costs of treatment. It was found that wastewater treatment levels could be increased by 34%, helping to offset the higher nutrient loading from a growing population with access to improved sanitation. The production of renewable natural gas from biogas was found to have the potential to prolong the depletion of natural gas resources used to produce electricity and heat. It is recommended that agricultural nutrient discharges be better managed to help reduce nutrient over-enrichment on global scale. To increase the utility of the simulation, a finer spatial scale should be used to consider regional treatment, economic, and water quality characteristics.

Wastewater Treatment Energy Recovery Potential For Adaptation To Global Change: An Integrated Assessment.

PubMed

Breach, Patrick A; Simonovic, Slobodan P

2018-04-01

Approximately 20% of wastewaters globally do not receive treatment, whereas wastewater discharges are projected to increase, thereby leading to excessive water quality degradation of surface waters on a global scale. Increased treatment could help alleviate water quality issues by constructing more treatment plants; however, in many areas there exist economic constraints. Energy recovery methods including the utilization of biogas and incineration of biosolids generated during the treatment process may help to alleviate treatment costs. This study explores the potential for investments in energy recovery from wastewater to increase treatment levels and thus improve surface water quality. This was done by examining the relationships between nutrient over-enrichment, wastewater treatment, and energy recovery at a global scale using system dynamics simulation as part of the ANEMI integrated assessment model. The results show that a significant amount of energy can be recovered from wastewater, which helps to alleviate some of the costs of treatment. It was found that wastewater treatment levels could be increased by 34%, helping to offset the higher nutrient loading from a growing population with access to improved sanitation. The production of renewable natural gas from biogas was found to have the potential to prolong the depletion of natural gas resources used to produce electricity and heat. It is recommended that agricultural nutrient discharges be better managed to help reduce nutrient over-enrichment on global scale. To increase the utility of the simulation, a finer spatial scale should be used to consider regional treatment, economic, and water quality characteristics.

The global carbon dioxide budget

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sundquist, E.T.

1993-01-01

The increase in atmospheric CO2 levels during the last deglaciation was comparable in magnitude to the recent historical increase. However, global CO2 budgets for these changes reflect fundamental differences in rates and in sources and sinks. The modern oceans are a rapid net CO2 sink, whereas the oceans were a gradual source during the deglaciation. Unidentified terrestrial CO2 sinks are important uncertainties in both the deglacial and recent CO2 budgets. The deglacial CO2 budget represents a complexity of long-term dynamic behavior that is not adequately addressed by current models used to forecast future atmospheric CO2 levels.

Validation of NH3 satellite observations by ground-based FTIR measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dammers, Enrico; Palm, Mathias; Van Damme, Martin; Shephard, Mark; Cady-Pereira, Karen; Capps, Shannon; Clarisse, Lieven; Coheur, Pierre; Erisman, Jan Willem

2016-04-01

Global emissions of reactive nitrogen have been increasing to an unprecedented level due to human activities and are estimated to be a factor four larger than pre-industrial levels. Concentration levels of NOx are declining, but ammonia (NH3) levels are increasing around the globe. While NH3 at its current concentrations poses significant threats to the environment and human health, relatively little is known about the total budget and global distribution. Surface observations are sparse and mainly available for north-western Europe, the United States and China and are limited by the high costs and poor temporal and spatial resolution. Since the lifetime of atmospheric NH3 is short, on the order of hours to a few days, due to efficient deposition and fast conversion to particulate matter, the existing surface measurements are not sufficient to estimate global concentrations. Advanced space-based IR-sounders such as the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), and the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) enable global observations of atmospheric NH3 that help overcome some of the limitations of surface observations. However, the satellite NH3 retrievals are complex requiring extensive validation. Presently there have only been a few dedicated satellite NH3 validation campaigns performed with limited spatial, vertical or temporal coverage. Recently a retrieval methodology was developed for ground-based Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) instruments to obtain vertical concentration profiles of NH3. Here we show the applicability of retrieved columns from nine globally distributed stations with a range of NH3 pollution levels to validate satellite NH3 products.

Assessing attainable intensification of global pasture systems at the 5 min x 5 min scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, J. J.; Lynd, L. R.; Allee, A.; Campbell, E. E.; Herrero, M.; Jaiswal, D.; Mueller, N. D.; Lamparelli, R.; Soares, J.

2017-12-01

Two-thirds of the world's agricultural land consist of pastures grazed by livestock. We use a recently published global dataset with information on feed consumption, animal stocks and productivity to analyze the intensification potential of pasture (grazing only) based production of meat and milk. Here we show that global output from pastures occupied by livestock circa 2000 could increase more than five-fold by simply raising their performance to the maximum achieved, climate-adjusted levels observed globally. The largest increases are in South America and sub Saharan Africa, where pasture systems are also more economically important. Furthermore, 40% of the land classified as pasture in the year 2000 had no animals on it. While pastureland currently contributes only a small fraction of total meat and milk production globally, such increases potentially offer an important new degree of freedom in addressing the challenge of sustainable stewardship of the earth's land resources.

Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming

PubMed Central

Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

2016-01-01

The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to longevity of animals will become very crucial challenge to biologists of the present millennium. PMID:26981200

Do We Produce Enough Fruits and Vegetables to Meet Global Health Need?

PubMed Central

Siegel, Karen R.; Ali, Mohammed K.; Srinivasiah, Adithi; Nugent, Rachel A.; Narayan, K. M. Venkat

2014-01-01

Background Low fruit and vegetable (FV) intake is a leading risk factor for chronic disease globally, but much of the world’s population does not consume the recommended servings of FV daily. It remains unknown whether global supply of FV is sufficient to meet current and growing population needs. We sought to determine whether supply of FV is sufficient to meet current and growing population needs, globally and in individual countries. Methods and Findings We used global data on agricultural production and population size to compare supply of FV in 2009 with population need, globally and in individual countries. We found that the global supply of FV falls, on average, 22% short of population need according to nutrition recommendations (supply:need ratio: 0.78 [Range: 0.05–2.01]). This ratio varies widely by country income level, with a median supply:need ratio of 0.42 and 1.02 in low-income and high-income countries, respectively. A sensitivity analysis accounting for need-side food wastage showed similar insufficiency, to a slightly greater extent (global supply:need ratio: 0.66, varying from 0.37 [low-income countries] to 0.77 [high-income countries]). Using agricultural production and population projections, we also estimated supply and need for FV for 2025 and 2050. Assuming medium fertility and projected growth in agricultural production, the global supply:need ratio for FV increases slightly to 0.81 by 2025 and to 0.88 by 2050, with similar patterns seen across country income levels. In a sensitivity analysis assuming no change from current levels of FV production, the global supply:need ratio for FV decreases to 0.66 by 2025 and to 0.57 by 2050. Conclusion The global nutrition and agricultural communities need to find innovative ways to increase FV production and consumption to meet population health needs, particularly in low-income countries. PMID:25099121

Incorporating Sediment Compaction Into a Gravitationally Self-consistent Model for Global Sea-level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrier, K.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2015-12-01

In sedimentary deltas and fans, sea-level changes are strongly modulated by the deposition and compaction of marine sediment. The deposition of sediment and incorporation of water into the sedimentary pore space reduces sea level by increasing the elevation of the seafloor, which reduces the thickness of sea-water above the bed. In a similar manner, the compaction of sediment and purging of water out of the sedimentary pore space increases sea level by reducing the elevation of the seafloor, which increases the thickness of sea water above the bed. Here we show how one can incorporate the effects of sediment deposition and compaction into the global, gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model of Dalca et al. (2013). Incorporating sediment compaction requires accounting for only one additional quantity that had not been accounted for in Dalca et al. (2013): the mean porosity in the sediment column. We provide a general analytic framework for global sea-level changes including sediment deposition and compaction, and we demonstrate how sea level responds to deposition and compaction under one simple parameterization for compaction. The compaction of sediment generates changes in sea level only by changing the elevation of the seafloor. That is, sediment compaction does not affect the mass load on the crust, and therefore does not generate perturbations in crustal elevation or the gravity field that would further perturb sea level. These results have implications for understanding sedimentary effects on sea-level changes and thus for disentangling the various drivers of sea-level change. ReferencesDalca A.V., Ferrier K.L., Mitrovica J.X., Perron J.T., Milne G.A., Creveling J.R., 2013. On postglacial sea level - III. Incorporating sediment redistribution. Geophysical Journal International, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt089.

Association between alterations in global DNA methylation and predisposing factors in diabetes: a high pressure liquid chromatography based study.

PubMed

Maghbooli, Z; Hossein-Nezhad, A; Larijani, B; Pasalar, P; Keshtkar, A A

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between inter-individual global DNA methylation and diabetes predisposing factors. The 5-methyl cytosine content was assessed by reverse phase high pressure liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) of peripheral blood leukocytes obtained from 178 type 2 diabetes patients to determine individual global DNA methylation status. There was a positive significant correlation between diabetes duration and DNA methylation levels (P=0.002) with increasing levels of DNA methylation associated with age (P=0.047). There was no significant correlation between DNA methylation levels and HbA1c (P=0.15). No significant differences were observed between patients with and without diabetes predisposing factors including: hypertension (P=0.772), dyslipidemia (P=0.617), insulin resistance (homeostatic model assessment index) (P=0.156) and obesity (P=0.609). As such, the duration of diabetes (>10 years) was the most important predictor of global DNA methylation levels in diabetic patients after adjusting for age and sex (P=0.023). Our findings indicate that chronic hyperglycemic exposure plays an independent role in global DNA methylation levels in type 2 diabetes patients.

Global DNA modifications suppress transcription in brown adipose tissue during hibernation.

PubMed

Biggar, Yulia; Storey, Kenneth B

2014-10-01

Hibernation is crucial to winter survival for many small mammals and is characterized by prolonged periods of torpor during which strong global controls are applied to suppress energy-expensive cellular processes. We hypothesized that one strategy of energy conservation is a global reduction in gene transcription imparted by reversible modifications to DNA and to proteins involved in chromatin packing. Transcriptional regulation during hibernation was examined over euthermic control groups and five stages of the torpor/arousal cycle in brown adipose tissue of thirteen-lined ground squirrels (Ictidomys tridecemlineatus). Brown adipose is crucial to hibernation success because it is responsible for the non-shivering thermogenesis that rewarms animals during arousal. A direct modification of DNA during torpor was revealed by a 1.7-fold increase in global DNA methylation during long term torpor as compared with euthermic controls. Acetylation of histone H3 (on Lys23) was reduced by about 50% when squirrels entered torpor, which would result in increased chromatin packing (and transcriptional repression). This was accompanied by strong increases in histone deacetylase protein levels during torpor; e.g. HDAC1 and HDAC4 levels rose by 1.5- and 6-fold, respectively. Protein levels of two co-repressors of transcription, MBD1 and HP1, also increased by 1.9- and 1.5-fold, respectively, in long-term torpor and remained high during early arousal. MBD1, HP1 and HDACs all returned to near control values during interbout indicating a reversal of their inhibitory actions. Overall, the data presents strong evidence for a global suppression of transcription during torpor via the action of epigenetic regulatory mechanisms in brown adipose tissue of hibernating thirteen-lined ground squirrels. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction

PubMed Central

Alaminos, David; del Castillo, Agustín; Fernández, Manuel Ángel

2016-01-01

The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy. PMID:27880810

Global warming and hepatotoxin production by cyanobacteria: what can we learn from experiments?

PubMed

El-Shehawy, Rehab; Gorokhova, Elena; Fernández-Piñas, Francisca; del Campo, Francisca F

2012-04-01

Global temperature is expected to rise throughout this century, and blooms of cyanobacteria in lakes and estuaries are predicted to increase with the current level of global warming. The potential environmental, economic and sanitation repercussions of these blooms have attracted considerable attention among the world's scientific communities, water management agencies and general public. Of particular concern is the worldwide occurrence of hepatotoxic cyanobacteria posing a serious threat to global public health. Here, we highlight plausible effects of global warming on physiological and molecular changes in these cyanobacteria and resulting effects on hepatotoxin production. We also emphasize the importance of understanding the natural biological function(s) of hepatotoxins, various mechanisms governing their synthesis, and climate-driven changes in food-web interactions, if we are to predict consequences of the current and projected levels of global warming for production and accumulation of hepatotoxins in aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuisance Flooding and Relative Sea-Level Rise: the Importance of Present-Day Land Motion.

PubMed

Karegar, Makan A; Dixon, Timothy H; Malservisi, Rocco; Kusche, Jürgen; Engelhart, Simon E

2017-09-11

Sea-level rise is beginning to cause increased inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. While most of Earth's coastal areas are at risk, areas that will be affected first are characterized by several additional factors. These include regional oceanographic and meteorological effects and/or land subsidence that cause relative sea level to rise faster than the global average. For catastrophic coastal flooding, when wind-driven storm surge inundates large areas, the relative contribution of sea-level rise to the frequency of these events is difficult to evaluate. For small scale "nuisance flooding," often associated with high tides, recent increases in frequency are more clearly linked to sea-level rise and global warming. While both types of flooding are likely to increase in the future, only nuisance flooding is an early indicator of areas that will eventually experience increased catastrophic flooding and land loss. Here we assess the frequency and location of nuisance flooding along the eastern seaboard of North America. We show that vertical land motion induced by recent anthropogenic activity and glacial isostatic adjustment are contributing factors for increased nuisance flooding. Our results have implications for flood susceptibility, forecasting and mitigation, including management of groundwater extraction from coastal aquifers.

Effect of total lumbar disc replacement on lumbosacral lordosis.

PubMed

Kasliwal, Manish K; Deutsch, Harel

2012-10-01

Original article : To study effect of lumbar disc replacement on lumbosacral lordosis. There has been a growing interest in total disc replacement (TDR) for back pain with the rising concern of adjacent segment degeneration. Lumbar fusion surgery has been shown to lead to decrease in lumbar lordosis, which may account for postfusion pain resulting in less acceptable clinical outcome after successful fusion. TDR has recently emerged as an alternative treatment for back pain. There have been very few studies reporting lumbar sagittal outcome after TDR. Retrospective study of radiographic data of 17 patients who underwent TDR for single level degenerative disc disease at the author's institution was carried out. Study included measurement of preoperative and postoperative segmental and global lumbar lordosis and angle of lordosis. Patients age varied from 19 to 54 (mean, 35) years. Follow-up ranged from 12 to 24 months. TDR was performed at L4-5 level in 3 patients and L5-S1 level in 14 patients. The average values for segmental lordosis, global lordosis, and angle of lordosis at the operated level before and after surgery were 17.3, 49.7, and 8.6 degrees and 21.6, 54, and 9.5 degrees, respectively. There was a trend toward significant (P=0.02) and near significant (P=0.057) increase in segmental and global lordosis, respectively after TDR. Although prosthesis increased angle of lordosis at the level implanted in majority of the patients, the difference in preoperative and postoperative angle of lordosis was not significant (P=0.438). In addition, there was no correlation between the angle of implant of chosen and postoperative angle of lordosis at the operated level. The effect of TDR on sagittal balance appears favorable with an increase in global and segmental lumbar lordosis after single level TDR for degenerative disc disease. The degree of postoperative angle of lordosis was not affected by the angle of implant chosen at the operated level and varied independently of the implant angle.

The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

2014-06-01

Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.

Regional Sea Level Changes Projected by the NASA/GISS Atmosphere-Ocean Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Gary L.; Gornitz, Vivien; Miller, James R.

1999-01-01

Sea level has been rising for the past century, and inhabitants of the Earth's coastal regions will want to understand and predict future sea level changes. In this study we present results from new simulations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global atmosphere-ocean model from 1950 to 2099. Model results are compared with observed sea level changes during the past 40 years at 17 coastal stations around the world. Using observed levels of greenhouse gases between 1950 and 1990 and a compounded 0.5% annual increase in Co2 after 1990, model projections show that global sea level measured from 1950 will rise by 61 mm in the year 2000, by 212 mm in 2050, and by 408 mm in 2089. By 2089, two thirds of the global sea level rise will be due to thermal expansion and one third will be due to ocean mass changes. The spatial distribution of sea level rise is different than that projected by rigid lid ocean models.

Flavonoid Apigenin Is an Inhibitor of the NAD+ase CD38

PubMed Central

Escande, Carlos; Nin, Veronica; Price, Nathan L.; Capellini, Verena; Gomes, Ana P.; Barbosa, Maria Thereza; O’Neil, Luke; White, Thomas A.; Sinclair, David A.; Chini, Eduardo N.

2013-01-01

Metabolic syndrome is a growing health problem worldwide. It is therefore imperative to develop new strategies to treat this pathology. In the past years, the manipulation of NAD+ metabolism has emerged as a plausible strategy to ameliorate metabolic syndrome. In particular, an increase in cellular NAD+ levels has beneficial effects, likely because of the activation of sirtuins. Previously, we reported that CD38 is the primary NAD+ase in mammals. Moreover, CD38 knockout mice have higher NAD+ levels and are protected against obesity and metabolic syndrome. Here, we show that CD38 regulates global protein acetylation through changes in NAD+ levels and sirtuin activity. In addition, we characterize two CD38 inhibitors: quercetin and apigenin. We show that pharmacological inhibition of CD38 results in higher intracellular NAD+ levels and that treatment of cell cultures with apigenin decreases global acetylation as well as the acetylation of p53 and RelA-p65. Finally, apigenin administration to obese mice increases NAD+ levels, decreases global protein acetylation, and improves several aspects of glucose and lipid homeostasis. Our results show that CD38 is a novel pharmacological target to treat metabolic diseases via NAD+-dependent pathways. PMID:23172919

Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

2002-01-01

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.

Improvements in Ice-Sheet Sea-Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, Andrew; Nowicki, Sophie

2017-01-01

Ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland are the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections. Nevertheless, improvements in ice-sheet models over recent decades have led to closer agreement with satellite observations, keeping track with their increasing contribution to global sea-level rise.

Improvement of Global and Regional Mean Sea Level Trends Derived from all Altimetry Missions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablain, Michael; Benveniste, Jérôme; Faugere, Yannice; Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary

2012-07-01

The global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993 using data from satellite altimetry missions. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 is increasing with a global trend of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2010 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL Aviso website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl). Besides, the regional sea level trends bring out an inhomogeneous repartition of the ocean elevation with local MSL slopes ranging from +/- 8 mm/year. A study published in 2009 [Ablain et al., 2009] has shown that the global MSL trend uncertainty was estimated at +/-0.6 mm/year with a confidence interval of 90%. The main sources of errors at global and regional scales are due to the orbit calculation and the wet troposphere correction. But others sea-level components have also a significant impact on the long-term stability of MSL as for instance the stability of instrumental parameters and the atmospheric corrections. Thanks to recent studies performed in Sea Level Essential Climate Variable Project in the frame of the Climate Change Initiative, an ESA Programme, in addition to activities performed within the SALP/CNES, strong improvements have been provided for the estimation of the global and regional MSL trends. In this paper, we propose to describe them; they concern the orbit calculation thanks to new gravity fields, the atmospheric corrections thanks to ERA-interim reanalyses, the wet troposphere corrections thanks to the stability improvement, and also empirical corrections allowing us to link regional time series together better. These improvements are described at global and regional scale for all the altimetry missions.

Unemployment levels after the global financial crisis linked to increase in suicides.

PubMed

2013-10-23

The 2008 global economic crisis appears to have triggered an increase in suicides, particularly among men in Europe and America. To investigate the impact of the economic crisis on international trends in suicide, researchers conducted an analysis comparing the number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would have been expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-2007). The analysis included data from 54 countries.

Community College Internationalization: The Role of Presidential Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brennan, Michael

2017-01-01

The literature differentiates between globalization and internationalization, but views the two phenomena as inextricably linked. Globalization is defined as a set of imposing economic and political forces that demand higher education pursue increased levels of international engagement (Altbach & Knight, 2007, p. 290); and has been explained…

Management opportunities for enhancing terrestrial CO2 sinks

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To address climate change and the implications of a global mean temperature increase of more than two degrees Celsius over current levels will require terrestrial carbon (C) management along with reductions in fossil fuel emissions. To achieve all or part of the global terrestrial C sequestration p...

Development of a global river-coastal coupling model and its application to flood simulation in Asian mega-delta regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Kanae, Shinjiro

2017-04-01

The world's mega-delta regions and estuaries are susceptible to various water-related disasters, such as river flooding and storm surge. Moreover, simultaneous occurrence of them would be more devastating than a situation where they occur in isolation. Therefore, it is important to provide information about compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, both their statistical dependency as well as their combined resulting flooding in delta regions. Here we report on a first attempt to address this issue globally by developing a method to couple a global river model (CaMa-Flood) and a global tide and surge reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. A state-of-the-art global river routing model, CaMa-Flood, was modified to represent varying sea levels due to tides and storm surges as downstream boundary condition, and the GTSR dataset was post-processed to serve as inputs to the CaMa-Flood river routing simulation and a long-term simulation was performed to incorporate the temporal dependency between coastal tide and surge on the one hand, and discharge on the other. The coupled model was validated against observations, showing better simulation results of water levels in deltaic regions than simulation without GTSR. For example in the Ganges Delta, correlation coefficients were increased by 0.06, and root mean square errors were reduced by 0.22 m. Global coupling simulations revealed that storm surges affected river water levels in coastal regions worldwide, especially in low-lying flat areas with increases in water level larger than 0.5 m. By employing enhanced storm surge simulation with tropical storm tracks, we also applied the model to examine impacts of past hurricane and cyclone storm events on river flood inundation.

Global climate change and its potential impact on disease transmission by salinity-tolerant mosquito vectors in coastal zones.

PubMed

Ramasamy, Ranjan; Surendran, Sinnathamby Noble

2012-01-01

Global climate change can potentially increase the transmission of mosquito vector-borne diseases such as malaria, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue in many parts of the world. These predictions are based on the effects of changing temperature, rainfall, and humidity on mosquito breeding and survival, the more rapid development of ingested pathogens in mosquitoes and the more frequent blood feeds at moderately higher ambient temperatures. An expansion of saline and brackish water bodies (water with <0.5 ppt or parts per thousand, 0.5-30 ppt and >30 ppt salt are termed fresh, brackish, and saline respectively) will also take place as a result of global warming causing a rise in sea levels in coastal zones. Its possible impact on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases has, however, not been adequately appreciated. The relevant impacts of global climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones are discussed with reference to the Ross-McDonald equation and modeling studies. Evidence is presented to show that an expansion of brackish water bodies in coastal zones can increase the densities of salinity-tolerant mosquitoes like Anopheles sundaicus and Culex sitiens, and lead to the adaptation of fresh water mosquito vectors like Anopheles culicifacies, Anopheles stephensi, Aedes aegypti, and Aedes albopictus to salinity. Rising sea levels may therefore act synergistically with global climate change to increase the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones. Greater attention therefore needs to be devoted to monitoring disease incidence and preimaginal development of vector mosquitoes in artificial and natural coastal brackish/saline habitats. It is important that national and international health agencies are aware of the increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones and develop preventive and mitigating strategies. Application of appropriate counter measures can greatly reduce the potential for increased coastal transmission of mosquito-borne diseases consequent to climate change and a rise in sea levels. It is proposed that the Jaffna peninsula in Sri Lanka may be a useful case study for the impact of rising sea levels on mosquito vectors in tropical coasts.

Global Climate Change and Its Potential Impact on Disease Transmission by Salinity-Tolerant Mosquito Vectors in Coastal Zones

PubMed Central

Ramasamy, Ranjan; Surendran, Sinnathamby Noble

2012-01-01

Global climate change can potentially increase the transmission of mosquito vector-borne diseases such as malaria, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue in many parts of the world. These predictions are based on the effects of changing temperature, rainfall, and humidity on mosquito breeding and survival, the more rapid development of ingested pathogens in mosquitoes and the more frequent blood feeds at moderately higher ambient temperatures. An expansion of saline and brackish water bodies (water with <0.5 ppt or parts per thousand, 0.5–30 ppt and >30 ppt salt are termed fresh, brackish, and saline respectively) will also take place as a result of global warming causing a rise in sea levels in coastal zones. Its possible impact on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases has, however, not been adequately appreciated. The relevant impacts of global climate change on the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones are discussed with reference to the Ross–McDonald equation and modeling studies. Evidence is presented to show that an expansion of brackish water bodies in coastal zones can increase the densities of salinity-tolerant mosquitoes like Anopheles sundaicus and Culex sitiens, and lead to the adaptation of fresh water mosquito vectors like Anopheles culicifacies, Anopheles stephensi, Aedes aegypti, and Aedes albopictus to salinity. Rising sea levels may therefore act synergistically with global climate change to increase the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones. Greater attention therefore needs to be devoted to monitoring disease incidence and preimaginal development of vector mosquitoes in artificial and natural coastal brackish/saline habitats. It is important that national and international health agencies are aware of the increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases in coastal zones and develop preventive and mitigating strategies. Application of appropriate counter measures can greatly reduce the potential for increased coastal transmission of mosquito-borne diseases consequent to climate change and a rise in sea levels. It is proposed that the Jaffna peninsula in Sri Lanka may be a useful case study for the impact of rising sea levels on mosquito vectors in tropical coasts. PMID:22723781

Differentiation regional climate impact indicators at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, C. F.

2016-12-01

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. By establishing 1.5°C as the long term temperature limit for global average temperature increase and inviting a special report of the IPCC on the impacts of 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement has put such assessments high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here I will present recent findings of climate impacts at 1.5°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. In particular, I will present findings from a recent study that attempts to differentiate between such impacts at warming levels of 1.5°¸C and 2°C above pre-industrial (Schleussner et al., 2016). By analyzing changes in indicators for 26 world regions as applicable, the study found regional dependent differences between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Regional hot-spots of change emerge with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impacts of an additional 0.5°C warming. These findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. Building on that analysis, I will discuss limitations of existing approaches to differentiate between warming levels and outline opportunities for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327-351 (2016).

Special Issue: Response of Microbial Communities to Environmental Changes.

PubMed

Stingl, Ulrich

2018-03-30

Environmental issues such as eutrophication, ocean acidification, sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, increase in carbon dioxide levels, or rise of average global temperatures, among many others, are impacting and changing whole ecosystems [...].

Intermittent sea-level acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivieri, M.; Spada, G.

2013-10-01

Using instrumental observations from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), we provide a new assessment of the global sea-level acceleration for the last ~ 2 centuries (1820-2010). Our results, obtained by a stack of tide gauge time series, confirm the existence of a global sea-level acceleration (GSLA) and, coherently with independent assessments so far, they point to a value close to 0.01 mm/yr2. However, differently from previous studies, we discuss how change points or abrupt inflections in individual sea-level time series have contributed to the GSLA. Our analysis, based on methods borrowed from econometrics, suggests the existence of two distinct driving mechanisms for the GSLA, both involving a minority of tide gauges globally. The first effectively implies a gradual increase in the rate of sea-level rise at individual tide gauges, while the second is manifest through a sequence of catastrophic variations of the sea-level trend. These occurred intermittently since the end of the 19th century and became more frequent during the last four decades.

Contributions of groundwater pumping to global sea level rise: Continental-scale and interannual analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, P. J. F.; Chen, Y.; Lo, M. H.; Wada, Y.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Reager, J. T., II; Zhang, C.; Wu, R. J.

2017-12-01

Groundwater depletion (GWD) is an anthropogenic driver of changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS). Despite small in magnitudes comparing to most terrestrial hydrologic fluxes, it has important long-term contributions to global sea level rise (SLR). Past studies on the evaluation of the contributions from GWD to SLR were generally limited to a global-scale context and a long-term average perspective. This study examines the impacts of GWD on both terrestrial and atmospheric water balances and quantify the respective contribution to global sea level rise (SLR) using a global climate modelling approach. The annual contributions to global SLR from each continent during the modelling period 1900-1999 are quantified and compared. The contribution from each continent can be decomposed into a direct effect via the change in continental river discharges (R) and an indirect effect via the change in atmosphere water vapour convergence from ocean to land (C). An increase in R and a reduction in C would contribute positively to global SLR. The contribution due to GWD to SLR is compared with the contribution due to natural variability of TWS. Through this study, different dynamics and mechanisms responsible for the GWD contribution to SLR in different continents and time horizons can be identified for better understanding this globally significant environmental issue under warming climate.

Entomological Opportunities and Challenges for Sustainable Viticulture in a Global Market.

PubMed

Daane, Kent M; Vincent, Charles; Isaacs, Rufus; Ioriatti, Claudio

2018-01-07

Viticulture has experienced dramatic global growth in acreage and value. As the international exchange of goods has increased, so too has the market demand for sustainably produced products. Both elements redefine the entomological challenges posed to viticulture and have stimulated significant advances in arthropod pest control programs. Vineyard managers on all continents are increasingly combating invasive species, resulting in the adoption of novel insecticides, semiochemicals, and molecular tools to support sustainable viticulture. At the local level, vineyard management practices consider factors such as the surrounding natural ecosystem, risk to fish populations, and air quality. Coordinated multinational responses to pest invasion have been highly effective and have, for example, resulted in eradication of the moth Lobesia botrana from California vineyards, a pest found in 2009 and eradicated by 2016. At the global level, the shared pests and solutions for their suppression will play an increasing role in delivering internationally sensitive pest management programs that respond to invasive pests, climate change, novel vector and pathogen relationships, and pesticide restrictions.

Beliefs about fact retrieval and inferential reasoning across the adult lifespan.

PubMed

Camp, C J; Pignatiello, M F

1988-01-01

This study deals with beliefs about question-answering processes involving "world knowledge" utilized by young, middle aged, and older adults. Questions intended to induce either fact retrieval or inferential reasoning were shown to younger (n = 37), middle aged (n = 37) and older (n = 37) adults in both a multiple choice and true/false format. Increasing age level was not related to decreased confidence in either fact retrieval or inferential reasoning. Global assessments about these question-answering processes involving "people in general" and self evaluations were taken from the same individuals. In contrast to personal confidence ratings, adults of all ages generally believed in declining fact retrieval abilities in old age. Inferential reasoning, however, often was believed to remain stable or even increase in ability level with increasing age. This was especially true in the assessments generated by older adults and in self evaluations. Thus, negative global beliefs about memory and aging may be present even when such global beliefs contradict item-specific judgments and personal beliefs about one's own cognition.

Global Health and Foreign Policy

PubMed Central

Feldbaum, Harley; Lee, Kelley; Michaud, Joshua

2010-01-01

Health has long been intertwined with the foreign policies of states. In recent years, however, global health issues have risen to the highest levels of international politics and have become accepted as legitimate issues in foreign policy. This elevated political priority is in many ways a welcome development for proponents of global health, and it has resulted in increased funding for and attention to select global health issues. However, there has been less examination of the tensions that characterize the relationship between global health and foreign policy and of the potential effects of linking global health efforts with the foreign-policy interests of states. In this paper, the authors review the relationship between global health and foreign policy by examining the roles of health across 4 major components of foreign policy: aid, trade, diplomacy, and national security. For each of these aspects of foreign policy, the authors review current and historical issues and discuss how foreign-policy interests have aided or impeded global health efforts. The increasing relevance of global health to foreign policy holds both opportunities and dangers for global efforts to improve health. PMID:20423936

Global health and foreign policy.

PubMed

Feldbaum, Harley; Lee, Kelley; Michaud, Joshua

2010-01-01

Health has long been intertwined with the foreign policies of states. In recent years, however, global health issues have risen to the highest levels of international politics and have become accepted as legitimate issues in foreign policy. This elevated political priority is in many ways a welcome development for proponents of global health, and it has resulted in increased funding for and attention to select global health issues. However, there has been less examination of the tensions that characterize the relationship between global health and foreign policy and of the potential effects of linking global health efforts with the foreign-policy interests of states. In this paper, the authors review the relationship between global health and foreign policy by examining the roles of health across 4 major components of foreign policy: aid, trade, diplomacy, and national security. For each of these aspects of foreign policy, the authors review current and historical issues and discuss how foreign-policy interests have aided or impeded global health efforts. The increasing relevance of global health to foreign policy holds both opportunities and dangers for global efforts to improve health.

Isolating the Meteorological Impact of 21st Century GHG Warming on the Removal and Atmospheric Loading of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter Pollution at Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yangyang; Lamarque, Jean-François

2018-03-01

Particulate matter with the diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) poses health threats to human population. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1), we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5%-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global warming alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the primary cause of the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally over North America and East Asia, a shift of future precipitation toward more frequent heavy events contributes to weakened wet removal fluxes. Our results suggest climate change impact needs to be accounted for to define the future emission standards necessary to meet air quality standard.

Climate Change Impact On Mekong Delta of Vietnam in recent years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, L. T. X., III

2015-12-01

In recent years, the climate change signal increase globally. Abnormal changes of weather tends increasingly detrimental to human life, such as natural disasters occur with increasing level of more severe. Climate change is one the biggest challenges, and is a potential threat to humans. The impact of climate change increases the number and extent of the disaster fierce exists as typhoons, floods, droughts ... Global warming and sea level rise increases the area of flooding, saline intrusion and erosion in the delta region may cause farmers to lose the opportunity to produce, source of life their only. Impact of climate change on people in the community, but poor farmers in the developing countries like our country, women are the most severe consequences In this section, we summarize changes in climate on the territory of Vietnam, especially in Mekong Delta evaluate causes and its relationship to changes in global climate and region. Along with the analysis of characteristics of climate changes over time and through space to help the evolution of the standard deviation (average deviation from the standard of the period from 1971 to 2015) may indicate that the characteristic gas scenes took place related to global climate change ... Vietnam's territory stretches over approximately 15 latitude, the terrain is very complex, located in the interior full of tropical Southeast Asia. Vietnam climate strongly influenced by the Asian monsoon, monsoon and Northern Hemisphere especially the ENSO activity in the equatorial region and the Pacific Ocean. Climate Vietnam abundant and diversified, with strong ties to the region and globally.

Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change.

PubMed

Temmerman, Stijn; Meire, Patrick; Bouma, Tjeerd J; Herman, Peter M J; Ysebaert, Tom; De Vriend, Huib J

2013-12-05

The risk of flood disasters is increasing for many coastal societies owing to global and regional changes in climate conditions, sea-level rise, land subsidence and sediment supply. At the same time, in many locations, conventional coastal engineering solutions such as sea walls are increasingly challenged by these changes and their maintenance may become unsustainable. We argue that flood protection by ecosystem creation and restoration can provide a more sustainable, cost-effective and ecologically sound alternative to conventional coastal engineering and that, in suitable locations, it should be implemented globally and on a large scale.

When will European countries exceed the 2°C temperature increase?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caminade, C.; Morse, A. P.

2012-04-01

Climatologists all agree that an increase of 2°C at global scale could have serious socio-economic consequences for the future. The Cancun agreement in 2010 officially stated that "With a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre- industrial levels . . . Parties should take urgent action to meet this long-term goal." Recent studies highlighted that this threshold is likely to be reached by 2060 at global scale if we follow the higher greenhouse gases emission scenarios. However, this threshold might be crossed earlier over lands, by 2040, for Europe, Asia, North Africa and Canada. This study aims to highlight when this threshold might be reached at the country level for members states of the European Union. A large ensemble of regional climate model simulations driven by the SRESA1B emission scenario carried out within the ENSEMBLES project framework for the European continent is employed to achieve such a task. Results corroborate that the European continent is likely to warm faster than the global average temperatures, with the multi-model ensemble mean crossing the 2°C threshold by 2045-2055. Regionally, Eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the Mediterranean basin are likely to cross that threshold earlier than northwestern/central Europe. As an example of these regional differences, Cyprus is likely to experience a 2°C increase during the mid 2040s while this might happen over Ireland during the late 21st century.

Self-Orientation Modulates the Neural Correlates of Global and Local Processing

PubMed Central

Liddell, Belinda J.; Das, Pritha; Battaglini, Eva; Malhi, Gin S.; Felmingham, Kim L.; Whitford, Thomas J.; Bryant, Richard A.

2015-01-01

Differences in self-orientation (or “self-construal”) may affect how the visual environment is attended, but the neural and cultural mechanisms that drive this remain unclear. Behavioral studies have demonstrated that people from Western backgrounds with predominant individualistic values are perceptually biased towards local-level information; whereas people from non-Western backgrounds that support collectivist values are preferentially focused on contextual and global-level information. In this study, we compared two groups differing in predominant individualistic (N = 15) vs collectivistic (N = 15) self-orientation. Participants completed a global/local perceptual conflict task whilst undergoing functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) scanning. When participants high in individualistic values attended to the global level (ignoring the local level), greater activity was observed in the frontoparietal and cingulo-opercular networks that underpin attentional control, compared to the match (congruent) baseline. Participants high in collectivistic values activated similar attentional control networks o only when directly compared with global processing. This suggests that global interference was stronger than local interference in the conflict task in the collectivistic group. Both groups showed increased activity in dorsolateral prefrontal regions involved in resolving perceptual conflict during heightened distractor interference. The findings suggest that self-orientation may play an important role in driving attention networks to facilitate interaction with the visual environment. PMID:26270820

Self-Orientation Modulates the Neural Correlates of Global and Local Processing.

PubMed

Liddell, Belinda J; Das, Pritha; Battaglini, Eva; Malhi, Gin S; Felmingham, Kim L; Whitford, Thomas J; Bryant, Richard A

2015-01-01

Differences in self-orientation (or "self-construal") may affect how the visual environment is attended, but the neural and cultural mechanisms that drive this remain unclear. Behavioral studies have demonstrated that people from Western backgrounds with predominant individualistic values are perceptually biased towards local-level information; whereas people from non-Western backgrounds that support collectivist values are preferentially focused on contextual and global-level information. In this study, we compared two groups differing in predominant individualistic (N = 15) vs collectivistic (N = 15) self-orientation. Participants completed a global/local perceptual conflict task whilst undergoing functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) scanning. When participants high in individualistic values attended to the global level (ignoring the local level), greater activity was observed in the frontoparietal and cingulo-opercular networks that underpin attentional control, compared to the match (congruent) baseline. Participants high in collectivistic values activated similar attentional control networks o only when directly compared with global processing. This suggests that global interference was stronger than local interference in the conflict task in the collectivistic group. Both groups showed increased activity in dorsolateral prefrontal regions involved in resolving perceptual conflict during heightened distractor interference. The findings suggest that self-orientation may play an important role in driving attention networks to facilitate interaction with the visual environment.

Interacting effects of ozone and CO2 on growth and physiological processes in northern forest trees

Treesearch

J. G. Isebrands; D. F. Karnosky

1996-01-01

Globally, surface-level concentrations of both CO2 and ozone (O3) are increasing annually. Because many studies have shown beneficial effects of increasing CO2, predictions have been made that elevated levels of CO2 would compensate for growth decreases caused by O3...

Global coastal flood hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilander, Dirk; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Haag, Arjen; Verlaan, Martin; Luo, Tianyi

2017-04-01

Over 10% of the world's population lives in low-lying coastal areas (up to 10m elevation). Many of these areas are prone to flooding from tropical storm surges or extra-tropical high sea levels in combination with high tides. A 1 in 100 year extreme sea level is estimated to expose 270 million people and 13 trillion USD worth of assets to flooding. Coastal flood risk is expected to increase due to drivers such as ground subsidence, intensification of tropical and extra-tropical storms, sea level rise and socio-economic development. For better understanding of the hazard and drivers to global coastal flood risk, a globally consistent analysis of coastal flooding is required. In this contribution we present a comprehensive global coastal flood hazard mapping study. Coastal flooding is estimated using a modular inundation routine, based on a vegetation corrected SRTM elevation model and forced by extreme sea levels. Per tile, either a simple GIS inundation routine or a hydrodynamic model can be selected. The GIS inundation method projects extreme sea levels to land, taking into account physical obstructions and dampening of the surge level land inwards. For coastlines with steep slopes or where local dynamics play a minor role in flood behavior, this fast GIS method can be applied. Extreme sea levels are derived from the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Future sea level projections are based on probabilistic sea level rise for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The approach is validated against observed flood extents from ground and satellite observations. The results will be made available through the online Aqueduct Global Flood Risk Analyzer of the World Resources Institute.

Partnerships to Accelerate Globalization on Campus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bataille, Gretchen M.

2017-01-01

Bringing international students to study at U.S. campuses is increasingly viewed as the best option to globalize the campus, yet the United States lags behind other countries in providing opportunities for international students, particularly at the undergraduate level. Although the one million international students studying in the United States…

Striving for International Understanding through Literature

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yokota, Junko; Teale, William H.

2017-01-01

In the 21st century, our students increasingly communicate, connect, collaborate, and interact with diverse cultures and traditions around the world, so they need to develop global literacy. This department column highlights research and research-to-practice at the international level to bring global best teaching practices to the forefront.…

Critical interactions between Global Fund-supported programmes and health systems: a case study in Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Rudge, James W; Phuanakoonon, Suparat; Nema, K Henry; Mounier-Jack, Sandra; Coker, Richard

2010-11-01

In Papua New Guinea, investment by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (the Global Fund) has played an important role in scaling up the response to HIV and tuberculosis (TB). As part of a series of case studies on how Global Fund-supported programmes interact with national health systems, we assessed the nature and extent of integration of the Global Fund portfolios within the national HIV and TB programmes, the integration of the HIV and TB programmes within the general health system, and system-wide effects of Global Fund support in Papua New Guinea. The study relied on a literature review and 30 interviews with key stakeholders using the Systemic Rapid Assessment Toolkit and thematic analysis. Global Fund-supported activities were found to be largely integrated, or at least coordinated, with the national HIV and TB programmes. However, this has reinforced the vertical nature of these programmes with respect to the general health system, with parallel systems established to meet the demands of programme scale-up and the performance-based nature of Global Fund investment in the weak health system context of Papua New Guinea. The more parallel functions include monitoring and evaluation, and procurement and supply chain systems, while human resources and infrastructure for service delivery are increasingly integrated at more local levels. Positive synergies of Global Fund support include engagement of civil-society partners, and a reliable supply of high-quality drugs which may have increased patient confidence in the health system. However, the severely limited and overburdened pool of human resources has been skewed towards the three diseases, both at management and service delivery levels. There is also concern surrounding the sustainability of the disease programmes, given their dependence on donors. Increasing Global Fund attention towards health system strengthening was viewed positively, but should acknowledge that system changes are slow, difficult to measure and require long-term support.

Mediterranean, invasive, woody species grow larger than their less-invasive counterparts under potential global environmental change.

PubMed

Erskine-Ogden, Jennifer; Grotkopp, Eva; Rejmánek, Marcel

2016-04-01

Revealing biological differences between invasive and noninvasive species is essential for predicting species' distribution changes with global environmental change. While most research has focused on differences between invasive and noninvasive species under favorable conditions using herbaceous species, invasive woody angiosperms are also of great ecological concern. Our study focused on how growth and allocation may change for invasive and noninvasive, mediterranean, woody angiosperms under future conditions caused by global change, specifically increased nitrogen deposition and drought. We tested how seedling functional traits differed between invasive and noninvasive woody angiosperms under different experimental conditions in a greenhouse setting. We compared growth rates and allocation patterns using two levels of soil nitrogen and three levels of watering. We also examined trait log response ratios to increases in nitrogen and increases in water. Our study sampled angiosperm trees and shrubs, incorporating congeneric/confamilial relationships through 13 phylogenetically controlled contrasts. Three functional traits were highly and positively associated with plant invasiveness for most conditions studied: seedling plant mass, leaf area, and height. Invasive species also had significantly higher root mass ratios at low water regardless of nitrogen input. Invasive and noninvasive species had similar log response ratios to increases in nitrogen and watering for studied traits. Mediterranean, woody, invasive species' larger mass, leaf area, and early height advantage under elevated nitrogen input and increased root production in drought conditions may lead to increased invasion of these species with expected global climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Perceptions of Global Warming Among the Poorest Counties in the Southeastern United States.

PubMed

Kearney, Gregory D; Bell, Ronny A

2018-03-07

The geographic position and high level of poverty in the southeastern United States are significant risk factors that contribute to the region's high vulnerability to climate change. The goal of this study was to evaluate beliefs and perceptions of global warming among those living in poverty in the poorest counties in the southeastern United States. Results from this project may be used to support public health efforts to increase climate-related messaging to vulnerable and underserved communities. This was an ecological study that analyzed public opinion poll estimates from previously gathered national level survey data (2016). Responses to 5 questions related to beliefs, attitudes, and perceptions of global warming were evaluated. Counties below the national average poverty level (13.5%) were identified among 11 southeastern US states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia). Student t tests were used to compare public perceptions of global warming among the poorest urban and rural counties with national-level public opinion estimates. Overall, counties below the national poverty level in the southeastern US were significantly less likely to believe that global warming was happening compared with national-level estimates. The poorest rural counties were less likely to believe that global warming was happening than the poorest urban counties. Health care providers and public health leaders at regional and local levels are in ideal positions to raise awareness and advocate the health implications of climate change to decision makers for the benefit of helping underserved communities mitigate and adequately adapt to climate-related threats.

The Global Fund: managing great expectations.

PubMed

Brugha, Ruairí; Donoghue, Martine; Starling, Mary; Ndubani, Phillimon; Ssengooba, Freddie; Fernandes, Benedita; Walt, Gill

The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria was created to increase funds to combat these three devastating diseases. We report interim findings, based on interviews with 137 national-level respondents that track early implementation processes in four African countries. Country coordinating mechanisms (CCMs) are country-level partnerships, which were formed quickly to develop and submit grant proposals to the Global Fund. CCM members were often ineffective at representing their constituencies and encountered obstacles in participating in CCM processes. Delay in dissemination of guidelines from the Global Fund led to uncertainty among members about the function of these new partnerships. Respondents expressed most concern about the limited capacity of fund recipients--government and non-government--to meet Global Fund conditions for performance-based disbursement. Delays in payment of funds to implementing agencies have frustrated rapid financing of disease control interventions. The Global Fund is one of several new global initiatives superimposed on existing country systems to finance the control of HIV/AIDS. New and existing donors need to coordinate assistance to developing countries by bringing together funding, planning, management, and reporting systems if global goals for disease control are to be achieved.

Plant health and global change--some implications for landscape management.

PubMed

Pautasso, Marco; Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina; Holdenrieder, Ottmar; Pietravalle, Stéphane; Salama, Nabeil; Jeger, Mike J; Lange, Eckart; Hehl-Lange, Sigrid

2010-11-01

Global change (climate change together with other worldwide anthropogenic processes such as increasing trade, air pollution and urbanization) will affect plant health at the genetic, individual, population and landscape level. Direct effects include ecosystem stress due to natural resources shortage or imbalance. Indirect effects include (i) an increased frequency of natural detrimental phenomena, (ii) an increased pressure due to already present pests and diseases, (iii) the introduction of new invasive species either as a result of an improved suitability of the climatic conditions or as a result of increased trade, and (iv) the human response to global change. In this review, we provide an overview of recent studies on terrestrial plant health in the presence of global change factors. We summarize the links between climate change and some key issues in plant health, including tree mortality, changes in wildfire regimes, biological invasions and the role of genetic diversity for ecosystem resilience. Prediction and management of global change effects are complicated by interactions between globalization, climate and invasive plants and/or pathogens. We summarize practical guidelines for landscape management and draw general conclusions from an expanding body of literature. © 2010 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2010 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, C.-F.; Lissner, T. K.; Fischer, E. M.; Wohland, J.; Perrette, M.; Golly, A.; Rogelj, J.; Childers, K.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.; Mengel, M.; Hare, W.; Schaeffer, M.

2015-11-01

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Currently, two such levels are discussed in the context of the international climate negotiations as long-term global temperature goals: a below 2 °C and a 1.5 °C limit in global-mean temperature rise above pre-industrial levels. Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive assessment of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and several hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 % longer to 11 %. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and Northern South America are projected to face local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50 cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels under a 2 °C warming, which is about 10 cm lower for a 1.5 °C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess future climate risks as well as different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a solid foundation for future work on refining our understanding of warming-level dependent climate impacts.

Epigenetic contribution to successful polyploidizations: variation in global cytosine methylation along an extensive ploidy series in Dianthus broteri (Caryophyllaceae).

PubMed

Alonso, Conchita; Balao, Francisco; Bazaga, Pilar; Pérez, Ricardo

2016-11-01

Polyploidization is a significant evolutionary force in plants which involves major genomic and genetic changes, frequently regulated by epigenetic factors. We explored whether natural polyploidization in Dianthus broteri complex resulted in substantial changes in global DNA cytosine methylation associated to ploidy. Global cytosine methylation was estimated by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) in 12 monocytotypic populations with different ploidies (2×, 4×, 6×, 12×) broadly distributed within D. broteri distribution range. The effects of ploidy level and local variation on methylation were assessed by generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Dianthus broteri exhibited a higher methylation percent (˜33%) than expected by its monoploid genome size and a large variation among study populations (range: 29.3-35.3%). Global methylation tended to increase with ploidy but did not significantly differ across levels due to increased variation within the highest-order polyploidy categories. Methylation varied more among hexaploid and dodecaploid populations, despite such cytotypes showing more restricted geographic location and increased genetic relatedness than diploids and tetraploids. In this study, we demonstrate the usefulness of an HPLC method in providing precise and genome reference-free global measure of DNA cytosine methylation, suitable to advance current knowledge of the roles of this epigenetic mechanism in polyploidization processes. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Global environmental costs of China's thirst for milk.

PubMed

Bai, Zhaohai; Lee, Michael R F; Ma, Lin; Ledgard, Stewart; Oenema, Oene; Velthof, Gerard L; Ma, Wenqi; Guo, Mengchu; Zhao, Zhanqing; Wei, Sha; Li, Shengli; Liu, Xia; Havlík, Petr; Luo, Jiafa; Hu, Chunsheng; Zhang, Fusuo

2018-05-01

China has an ever-increasing thirst for milk, with a predicted 3.2-fold increase in demand by 2050 compared to the production level in 2010. What are the environmental implications of meeting this demand, and what is the preferred pathway? We addressed these questions by using a nexus approach, to examine the interdependencies of increasing milk consumption in China by 2050 and its global impacts, under different scenarios of domestic milk production and importation. Meeting China's milk demand in a business as usual scenario will increase global dairy-related (China and the leading milk exporting regions) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 35% (from 565 to 764 Tg CO 2eq ) and land use for dairy feed production by 32% (from 84 to 111 million ha) compared to 2010, while reactive nitrogen losses from the dairy sector will increase by 48% (from 3.6 to 5.4 Tg nitrogen). Producing all additional milk in China with current technology will greatly increase animal feed import; from 1.9 to 8.5 Tg for concentrates and from 1.0 to 6.2 Tg for forage (alfalfa). In addition, it will increase domestic dairy related GHG emissions by 2.2 times compared to 2010 levels. Importing the extra milk will transfer the environmental burden from China to milk exporting countries; current dairy exporting countries may be unable to produce all additional milk due to physical limitations or environmental preferences/legislation. For example, the farmland area for cattle-feed production in New Zealand would have to increase by more than 57% (1.3 million ha) and that in Europe by more than 39% (15 million ha), while GHG emissions and nitrogen losses would increase roughly proportionally with the increase of farmland in both regions. We propose that a more sustainable dairy future will rely on high milk demanding regions (such as China) improving their domestic milk and feed production efficiencies up to the level of leading milk producing countries. This will decrease the global dairy related GHG emissions and land use by 12% (90 Tg CO 2eq reduction) and 30% (34 million ha land reduction) compared to the business as usual scenario, respectively. However, this still represents an increase in total GHG emissions of 19% whereas land use will decrease by 8% when compared with 2010 levels, respectively. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huey-Tzu Jenny; Lau, William K.-M.

2016-01-01

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (-6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Complex spatiotemporal responses of global terrestrial primary production to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 in the 21st century.

PubMed

Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R S; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

2014-01-01

Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8-56.4) PgC yr(-1) as a result of multiple factors during 2000-2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010-2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5 °C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5 °C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2 °C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5 °C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%-13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing atmospheric CO2.

Complex Spatiotemporal Responses of Global Terrestrial Primary Production to Climate Change and Increasing Atmospheric CO2 in the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Pan, Shufen; Tian, Hanqin; Dangal, Shree R. S.; Zhang, Chi; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Wang, Xiaoke; Lu, Chaoqun; Ren, Wei; Banger, Kamaljit; Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Bowen; Li, Xia

2014-01-01

Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO2 changes in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8–56.4) PgC yr−1 as a result of multiple factors during 2000–2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010–2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5°C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2°C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5°C. The CO2 fertilization effect would result in a 12%–13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21st century. The relative CO2 fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO2 (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO2 saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing atmospheric CO2. PMID:25401492

Shifts of regional hydro-climatic regimes in the warmer future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Morishita, S.

2016-12-01

It is well known that the global climate is projected to be significantly warmer than pre-industrial period, and, in 2015, it was indicated as 1-degreen increase of global mean temperature that was unprecedented previously. Human-induced additional radiative forcing causes global and regional mean temperature increase and alters energy and water partitioning in the heterogeneous pathway. Budyko proposed a conceptual equation to estimate a climate-induced dryness relating available energy and precipitation, and it has been used broadly in hydrology communities to determine regional hydro-climatic characteristics. In this study, a diagnosis framework is proposed to traced how the regional hydro-climatic regimes are shifted under the warming condition with 4 °C increase of global mean temperature. A database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) based on a super-ensemble AMIP-style experiment (11,400 model years, totally) with sea surface temperature patterns extracted from six CMIP5 models is used to estimate the probability distribution of the regime shifts maximizing signal-to-noise. It was found that the global future hydro-climate condition shifts slightly to more humid condition comparing to the historical condition, since the increase of precipitation is greater and the increate of net radiation, globally. Very humid regions including tropics and semi-arid regions tend to expand, and Semi-humid and arid-regions tend to shrink. Although the change of global mean state between historical and future climate is not considerable, temporal variability under the warming climate is amplified significantly, and it induces more frequent occurrence of once-in-a-century level drought over large terrestrial regions including Africa, South America, East and Central Asia, Australia, and United States. This analysis will be extended up to the availability (expected as October 2016) of a similar database being produced under the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts (HAPPI) project following the Paris Agreement, 2015, to aim to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The impact of education and globalization on sexual and reproductive health: retrospective evidence from eastern and southern Africa.

PubMed

Van Stam, Marie-Anne; Michielsen, Kristien; Stroeken, Koen; Zijlstra, Bonne J H

2014-01-01

The objective of this study is to qualify the relationship between sexual and reproductive health (SRH) and educational attainment in eastern and southern Africa (ESA). We hypothesize that the regional level of globalization is a moderating factor in the relationship between SRH and educational attainment. Using retrospective data from Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia, the associations between SRH (eight indicators), educational attainment, and globalization were examined using multilevel logistic regression analysis. It was found that the model fit for every SRH outcome indicator increased significantly after including the interaction between globalization and educational attainment, supporting the hypothesis. Depending on the level of globalization, three types of relationships between education and SRH were found: (1) for the indicators "more than four children," "intercourse before 17 years," "first child before 20 years," and "one or more child died" education is risk-decreasing, and the reduction is stronger in more globalized regions; (2) for the indicators "condom use at last intercourse" and "current contraceptive use" education is risk-decreasing, and the reduction is stronger in less globalized regions; (3) for the indicators "HIV positive" and "more than four lifetime sexual partners" education is risk increasing, but only in less globalized regions. In conclusion, these effects are related to three types of access: (1) access to services, (2) access to information, and (3) access to sexual networks. The findings highlight the relevance of globalization when analyzing the association between SRH and education, and the importance of structural factors in the development of effective SRH promotion interventions.

How can countries achieve sustainable food supply in 2050: current knowledge and way forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kummu, M.; Fader, M.; Gerten, D.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; Jalava, M.; Jägermeyr, J.; Pfister, S.; Porkka, M.; Siebert, S.; Varis, O.

2016-12-01

Growing population and climate change increase the pressure on already scarce land and water resources. To reach adequate future food supply, without increasing the pressure on these already scarce resources, various measures are suggested, including diet change, food loss reduction and closing the yield gap. Existing studies have highlighted the potential of these measures as solutions for future food security. However, these are either assessed on a global level or if spatially disaggregated, disconnected from each other. These studies illustrate well that the potential of each measure to increase food availability differs widely across the nations. Thus, spatially explicit information on these measures in a combined assessment is urgently needed to understand the leading resource-efficiency opportunities for each geographic area. By using the most recent datasets, we assess how much each country would potentially be able to increase food production with each measure alone and combining them all, at moderate and high levels of implementation. Globally these measures would increase food availability by 90 and 188%, respectively - enough to feed global population in 2050 even with moderate implementation level. Variability among countries is, however, large and several countries in Central America, Africa, Southeast Asian Islands would need high-level of implementation to reach adequate food supply by then and even then, few countries in MENA region would need to increase the trade from today's levels. Our objective was to bring together potential of various measures for increased food production, as shown in different studies. However, dynamic feedbacks between these quantifications were not included in these estimations. For example, the diet change scenarios would result in different production needs, and changes in land use would be required. This, in turn, might influence the potential improvements in food loss reduction and food production. There is thus urgent need to integrate these, and other potential measures, together and deepen the knowledge of their combined impact on future sustainable food supply.

Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hinkel, Jochen; Lincke, Daniel; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Perrette, Mahé; Nicholls, Robert James; Tol, Richard S J; Marzeion, Ben; Fettweis, Xavier; Ionescu, Cezar; Levermann, Anders

2014-03-04

Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data, population data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional sea level was derived from four different climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, each combined with three land-ice scenarios based on the published range of contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Without adaptation, 0.2-4.6% of global population is expected to be flooded annually in 2100 under 25-123 cm of global mean sea-level rise, with expected annual losses of 0.3-9.3% of global gross domestic product. Damages of this magnitude are very unlikely to be tolerated by society and adaptation will be widespread. The global costs of protecting the coast with dikes are significant with annual investment and maintenance costs of US$ 12-71 billion in 2100, but much smaller than the global cost of avoided damages even without accounting for indirect costs of damage to regional production supply. Flood damages by the end of this century are much more sensitive to the applied protection strategy than to variations in climate and socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data sources (topography and climate model). Our results emphasize the central role of long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These should also take into account that protecting large parts of the developed coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in the case of defense failure.

Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities

PubMed Central

Early, Regan; Bradley, Bethany A.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Olden, Julian D.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Gonzalez, Patrick; Grosholz, Edwin D.; Ibañez, Ines; Miller, Luke P.; Sorte, Cascade J. B.; Tatem, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion. PMID:27549569

Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities.

PubMed

Early, Regan; Bradley, Bethany A; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lawler, Joshua J; Olden, Julian D; Blumenthal, Dana M; Gonzalez, Patrick; Grosholz, Edwin D; Ibañez, Ines; Miller, Luke P; Sorte, Cascade J B; Tatem, Andrew J

2016-08-23

Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion.

Global assessment of oceanic lead pollution using sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) as an indicator species.

PubMed

Savery, Laura C; Wise, Sandra S; Falank, Carolyne; Wise, James; Gianios, Christy; Douglas Thompson, W; Perkins, Christopher; Zheng, Tongzhang; Zhu, Cairong; Wise, John Pierce

2014-02-15

Lead (Pb) is an oceanic pollutant of global concern. Anthropogenic activities are increasing oceanic levels, but to an unknown extent. The sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) has a global distribution and high trophic level. The aim of this study was to establish a global baseline of oceanic Pb concentrations using free-ranging sperm whales as an indicator species. Skin biopsies (n=337) were collected during the voyage of the Odyssey (2000-2005) from 17 regions considering gender and age. Pb was detectable in 315 samples with a global mean of 1.6 ug/gww ranging from 0.1 to 129.6 ug/gww. Papua New Guinea, Bahamas and Australia had the highest regional mean with 6.1, 3.4, and 3.1 ug/gww, respectively. Pb concentrations were not significantly different between sex and age in males. This is the first global toxicological dataset for Pb in a marine mammal and confirms Pb is widely distributed with hotspots in some regions. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

SoTL and Students' Experiences of Their Degree-Level Programs: An Empirical Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Kelly E.; Divan, Aysha; John-Thomas, Nicole; Lopes, Valerie; Ludwig, Lynn O.; Martini, Tanya S.; Motley, Phillip; Tomljenovic-Berube, Ana M.

2013-01-01

In the global higher education sector, government accountability initiatives are increasingly focused on degree-level competencies that may be expected from university graduates. The purpose of this paper was to examine the extent to which SoTL reflects this increased interest in student learning across the degree program. Articles (N = 136)…

Flavonoid apigenin is an inhibitor of the NAD+ ase CD38: implications for cellular NAD+ metabolism, protein acetylation, and treatment of metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Escande, Carlos; Nin, Veronica; Price, Nathan L; Capellini, Verena; Gomes, Ana P; Barbosa, Maria Thereza; O'Neil, Luke; White, Thomas A; Sinclair, David A; Chini, Eduardo N

2013-04-01

Metabolic syndrome is a growing health problem worldwide. It is therefore imperative to develop new strategies to treat this pathology. In the past years, the manipulation of NAD(+) metabolism has emerged as a plausible strategy to ameliorate metabolic syndrome. In particular, an increase in cellular NAD(+) levels has beneficial effects, likely because of the activation of sirtuins. Previously, we reported that CD38 is the primary NAD(+)ase in mammals. Moreover, CD38 knockout mice have higher NAD(+) levels and are protected against obesity and metabolic syndrome. Here, we show that CD38 regulates global protein acetylation through changes in NAD(+) levels and sirtuin activity. In addition, we characterize two CD38 inhibitors: quercetin and apigenin. We show that pharmacological inhibition of CD38 results in higher intracellular NAD(+) levels and that treatment of cell cultures with apigenin decreases global acetylation as well as the acetylation of p53 and RelA-p65. Finally, apigenin administration to obese mice increases NAD(+) levels, decreases global protein acetylation, and improves several aspects of glucose and lipid homeostasis. Our results show that CD38 is a novel pharmacological target to treat metabolic diseases via NAD(+)-dependent pathways.

Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

PubMed

Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

2018-02-20

Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, Ben; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier; Robock, Alan; Rasch, Philip J.; Alterskjær, Kari; Karam, Diana Bou; Cole, Jason N. S.; Curry, Charles L.; Haywood, James M.; Irvine, Peter J.; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Andy; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Lunt, Daniel J.; Moore, John C.; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke; Schulz, Michael; Singh, Balwinder; Tilmes, Simone; Watanabe, Shingo; Yang, Shuting; Yoon, Jin-Ho

2013-08-01

geoengineering—deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth—has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwise occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2 mm day-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.

Climate Model Response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Caldeira, Ken; Boucher, Olivier

2013-08-09

Solar geoengineering—deliberate reduction in the amount of solar radiation retained by the Earth—has been proposed as a means of counteracting some of the climatic effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We present results from Experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, in which 12 climate models have simulated the climate response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 from preindustrial concentrations brought into radiative balance via a globally uniform reduction in insolation. Models show this reduction largely offsets global mean surface temperature increases due to quadrupled CO2 concentrations and prevents 97% of the Arctic sea ice loss that would otherwisemore » occur under high CO2 levels but, compared to the preindustrial climate, leaves the tropics cooler (-0.3 K) and the poles warmer (+0.8 K). Annual mean precipitation minus evaporation anomalies for G1 are less than 0.2mmday-1 in magnitude over 92% of the globe, but some tropical regions receive less precipitation, in part due to increased moist static stability and suppression of convection. Global average net primary productivity increases by 120% in G1 over simulated preindustrial levels, primarily from CO2 fertilization, but also in part due to reduced plant heat stress compared to a high CO2 world with no geoengineering. All models show that uniform solar geoengineering in G1 cannot simultaneously return regional and global temperature and hydrologic cycle intensity to preindustrial levels.« less

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Formulating Energy Policies Related to Fossil Fuel Use: Critical Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Cycle

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Post, W. M.; Dale, V. H.; DeAngelis, D. L.; Mann, L. K.; Mulholland, P. J.; O`Neill, R. V.; Peng, T. -H.; Farrell, M. P.

1990-02-01

The global carbon cycle is the dynamic interaction among the earth's carbon sources and sinks. Four reservoirs can be identified, including the atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, oceans, and sediments. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration is determined by characteristics of carbon fluxes among major reservoirs of the global carbon cycle. The objective of this paper is to document the knowns, and unknowns and uncertainties associated with key questions that if answered will increase the understanding of the portion of past, present, and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} attributable to fossil fuel burning. Documented atmospheric increases in CO{sub 2} levels are thought to result primarily from fossil fuel use and, perhaps, deforestation. However, the observed atmospheric CO{sub 2} increase is less than expected from current understanding of the global carbon cycle because of poorly understood interactions among the major carbon reservoirs.

Childhood as Social Investment, Rights and the Valuing of Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kjorholt, Anne Trine

2013-01-01

This paper discusses the impact of and close interplay between global discourses on children, notions of (a good) childhood at the national and local levels and childhoods as these are lived and experienced in particular social contexts. Two increasingly powerful global images of children are explored: Children as individual subjects with rights…

Argumentation as a Strategy for Increasing Preservice Teachers' Understanding of Climate Change, a Key Global Socioscientific Issue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lambert, Julie L.; Bleicher, Robert E.

2017-01-01

Findings of this study suggest that scientific argumentation can play an effective role in addressing complex socioscientific issues (i.e. global climate change). This research examined changes in preservice teachers' knowledge and perceptions about climate change in an innovative undergraduate-level elementary science methods course. The…

Shared wilderness, shared responsibility, shared vision: Protecting migratory wildlife

Treesearch

Will Meeks; Jimmy Fox; Nancy Roeper

2011-01-01

Wilderness plays a vital role in global and landscape-level conservation of wildlife. Millions of migratory birds and mammals rely on wilderness lands and waters during critical parts of their life. As large, ecologically intact landscapes, wilderness areas also play a vital role in addressing global climate change by increasing carbon sequestration, reducing...

Global changes in DNA methylation in Alzheimer's disease peripheral blood mononuclear cells.

PubMed

Di Francesco, Andrea; Arosio, Beatrice; Falconi, Anastasia; Micioni Di Bonaventura, Maria Vittoria; Karimi, Mohsen; Mari, Daniela; Casati, Martina; Maccarrone, Mauro; D'Addario, Claudio

2015-03-01

Changes in epigenetic marks may help explain the late onset of Alzheimer's disease (AD). In this study we measured genome-wide DNA methylation by luminometric methylation assay, a quantitative measurement of genome-wide DNA methylation, on DNA isolated from peripheral blood mononuclear cells of 37 subjects with late-onset AD (LOAD) and 44 healthy controls (CT). We found an increase in global DNA methylation in LOAD subjects compared to CT (p=0.0122), associated with worse cognitive performances (p=0.0002). DNA hypermethylation in LOAD group was paralleled by higher DNA methyltransferase 1 (DNMT1) gene expression and protein levels. When data were stratified on the basis of the APOE polymorphisms, higher DNA methylation levels were associated with the presence of APOE ε4 allele (p=0.0043) in the global population. Among the APOE ε3 carriers, a significant increase of DNA methylation was still observed in LOAD patients compared to healthy controls (p=0.05). Our data suggest global DNA methylation in peripheral samples as a useful marker for screening individuals at risk of developing AD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High T3, Low T4 Serum Levels in Mct8 Deficiency Are Not Caused by Increased Hepatic Conversion through Type I Deiodinase

PubMed Central

Wirth, Eva K.; Rijntjes, Eddy; Meyer, Franziska; Köhrle, Josef; Schweizer, Ulrich

2015-01-01

Background The Allan-Herndon-Dudley syndrome is a severe psychomotor retardation accompanied by specific changes in circulating thyroid hormone levels (high T3, low T4). These are caused by mutations in the thyroid hormone transmembrane transport protein monocarboxylate transporter 8 (MCT8). Objective: To test the hypothesis that circulating low T4 and high T3 levels are caused by enhanced conversion of T4 via increased activity of hepatic type I deiodinase (Dio1). Methods We crossed mice deficient in Mct8 with mice lacking Dio1 activity in hepatocytes. Translation of the selenoenzyme Dio1 was abrogated by hepatocyte-specific inactivation of selenoprotein biosynthesis. Results Inactivation of Dio1 activity in the livers of global Mct8-deficient mice does not restore normal circulating thyroid hormone levels. Conclusions Our data suggest that although hepatic Dio1 activity is increased in Mct8-deficient mice, it does not cause the observed abnormal circulating thyroid hormone levels. Since global inactivation of Dio1 in Mct8-deficient mice does normalize circulating thyroid hormone levels, the underlying mechanism and relevant tissues involved remain to be elucidated. PMID:26601078

High T3, Low T4 Serum Levels in Mct8 Deficiency Are Not Caused by Increased Hepatic Conversion through Type I Deiodinase.

PubMed

Wirth, Eva K; Rijntjes, Eddy; Meyer, Franziska; Köhrle, Josef; Schweizer, Ulrich

2015-09-01

The Allan-Herndon-Dudley syndrome is a severe psychomotor retardation accompanied by specific changes in circulating thyroid hormone levels (high T3, low T4). These are caused by mutations in the thyroid hormone transmembrane transport protein monocarboxylate transporter 8 (MCT8). To test the hypothesis that circulating low T4 and high T3 levels are caused by enhanced conversion of T4 via increased activity of hepatic type I deiodinase (Dio1). We crossed mice deficient in Mct8 with mice lacking Dio1 activity in hepatocytes. Translation of the selenoenzyme Dio1 was abrogated by hepatocyte-specific inactivation of selenoprotein biosynthesis. Inactivation of Dio1 activity in the livers of global Mct8-deficient mice does not restore normal circulating thyroid hormone levels. Our data suggest that although hepatic Dio1 activity is increased in Mct8-deficient mice, it does not cause the observed abnormal circulating thyroid hormone levels. Since global inactivation of Dio1 in Mct8-deficient mice does normalize circulating thyroid hormone levels, the underlying mechanism and relevant tissues involved remain to be elucidated.

Global ablation of the mitochondrial calcium uniporter increases glycolysis in cortical neurons subjected to energetic stressors.

PubMed

Nichols, Matthew; Elustondo, Pia A; Warford, Jordan; Thirumaran, Aruloli; Pavlov, Evgeny V; Robertson, George S

2017-08-01

The effects of global mitochondrial calcium (Ca 2+ ) uniporter (MCU) deficiency on hypoxic-ischemic (HI) brain injury, neuronal Ca 2+ handling, bioenergetics and hypoxic preconditioning (HPC) were examined. Forebrain mitochondria isolated from global MCU nulls displayed markedly reduced Ca 2+ uptake and Ca 2+ -induced opening of the membrane permeability transition pore. Despite evidence that these effects should be neuroprotective, global MCU nulls and wild-type (WT) mice suffered comparable HI brain damage. Energetic stress enhanced glycolysis and depressed Complex I activity in global MCU null, relative to WT, cortical neurons. HI reduced forebrain NADH levels more in global MCU nulls than WT mice suggesting that increased glycolytic consumption of NADH suppressed Complex I activity. Compared to WT neurons, pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH) was hyper-phosphorylated in MCU nulls at several sites that lower the supply of substrates for the tricarboxylic acid cycle. Elevation of cytosolic Ca 2+ with glutamate or ionomycin decreased PDH phosphorylation in MCU null neurons suggesting the use of alternative mitochondrial Ca 2+ transport. Under basal conditions, global MCU nulls showed similar increases of Ca 2+ handling genes in the hippocampus as WT mice subjected to HPC. We propose that long-term adaptations, common to HPC, in global MCU nulls compromise resistance to HI brain injury and disrupt HPC.

Predictive factors for the sensitivity of radiotherapy and prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Wu, Shaobin; Wang, Xianwei; Chen, Jin-Xiang; Chen, Yuxiang

2014-05-01

To identify predictive biomarkers for radiosensitization and prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). A total of 150 advanced stage ESCC patients were treated with preoperative radiotherapy. The protein levels of Dicer 1, DNA methyltransferase 1 (Dnmt1), and DNA-dependent protein kinase catalytic subunit (DNA-PKcs) and the mRNA levels of Dicer 1, Dnmt1, and let-7b microRNA (miRNA) were measured in ESCC tumor tissues before and after radiotherapy. Global DNA methylation was measured and terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) staining was performed. Negative Dicer 1, Dnmt1, and DNA-PKcs protein expression were observed in 72%, 67.3%, and 50.7% of ESCC patients, respectively. Primary Dicer 1 and Dnmt1 expression positively correlated with radiation sensitization and longer survival of ESCC patients, while increased Dicer 1 and Dnmt1 expression after radiation correlated with increased apoptosis in residual tumor tissues. Dicer 1 and Dnmt1 expression correlated with let-7b miRNA expression and global DNA methylation levels, respectively. In contrast, positive DNA-PKcs expression negatively correlated with radiation-induced pathological reactions, and increased DNA-PKcs expression correlated with increased apoptosis after radiation. Global DNA hypomethylation and low miRNA expression are involved in the sensitization of ESCC to radiotherapy and prognosis of patients with ESCC.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

Population aging, macroeconomic changes, and global diabetes prevalence, 1990-2008.

PubMed

Sudharsanan, Nikkil; Ali, Mohammed K; Mehta, Neil K; Narayan, K M Venkat

2015-01-01

Diabetes is an important contributor to global morbidity and mortality. The contributions of population aging and macroeconomic changes to the growth in diabetes prevalence over the past 20 years are unclear. We used cross-sectional data on age- and sex-specific counts of people with diabetes by country, national population estimates, and country-specific macroeconomic variables for the years 1990, 2000, and 2008. Decomposition analysis was performed to quantify the contribution of population aging to the change in global diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Next, age-standardization was used to estimate the contribution of age composition to differences in diabetes prevalence between high-income (HIC) and low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs). Finally, we used non-parametric correlation and multivariate first-difference regression estimates to examine the relationship between macroeconomic changes and the change in diabetes prevalence between 1990 and 2008. Globally, diabetes prevalence grew by two percentage points between 1990 (7.4 %) and 2008 (9.4 %). Population aging was responsible for 19 % of the growth, with 81 % attributable to increases in the age-specific prevalences. In both LMICs and HICs, about half the growth in age-specific prevalences was from increasing levels of diabetes between ages 45-65 (51 % in HICs and 46 % in LMICs). After age-standardization, the difference in the prevalence of diabetes between LMICs and HICs was larger (1.9 % point difference in 1990; 1.5 % point difference in 2008). We found no evidence that macroeconomic changes were associated with the growth in diabetes prevalence. Population aging explains a minority of the recent growth in global diabetes prevalence. The increase in global diabetes between 1990 and 2008 was primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of diabetes at ages 45-65. We do not find evidence that basic indicators of economic growth, development, globalization, or urbanization were related to rising levels of diabetes between 1990 and 2008.

Biogeochemical responses of shallow coastal lagoons to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brito, A.; Newton, A.; Tett, P.; Fernandes, T.

2009-04-01

The importance of climate change and global warming in the near future is becoming consensual within the scientific community (e.g. Kerr et al., 2008; Lloret et al., 2008). The surface temperature and sea level have increased during the last few years in the northern hemisphere (IPCC, 2007). Predictions for future changes include an increase of surface temperature and sea level for Europe. Moreover, the global warming phenomenon will also change the hydrological cycle and increase precipitation in northern and central Europe (IPCC, 2007). Sea level rise already threatens to overwhelm some lagoons, such as Venice and Moroccan lagoons (Snoussi et al., 2008). Shallow coastal lagoons are some of the most vulnerable systems that will be impacted by these changes (Eisenreich, 2005). Environmental impacts on coastal lagoons include an increase of water turbidity and therefore light attenuation. If these effects are strong enough, the lighted bottoms of shallow lagoons may loose a significant part of the benthic algal community. These communities are highly productive and are essential to control nutrient dynamics of the system by uptaking large amounts of nutrients both from the water column and from the sediments. A decrease in benthic algal communities and photosynthetic oxygen production will also contribute to increasing the vulnerability of the lagoons to hypoxia and anoxia. The flux of nutrients such as phosphate from the sediments may increase dramatically, further disrupting the nutrient balance and condition and promoting cyanobacterial blooms. Microbial activity is temperature dependent, therefore, the increase of temperature will increase the concentrations of ammonium within sediments. The release of phosphate and silicate will also increase with temperature. Coastal lagoons are valuable ecosystems and may be severely impacted, both ecologically and economically, by global change. Shallow coastal lagoons should be considered as sentinel systems and should be carefully monitored so that appropriate responses can be timely to mitigate the impacts from global change. References: Eisenreich, S.J. (2005). Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - A report to the European Water Directors. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Comission-Joint Research Centre. Ispra, Italy. 253pp. Kerr, R. (2008). Global warming throws some curves in the Atlantic Ocean. Science, 322, 515. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., Miller, H. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996pp. Lloret, J., Marín, A., Marín-Guirao, L. (2008). Is coastal lagoon eutrophication likely to be aggravated by global climate change? Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 78, 403-412. Snoussi, M., Ouchani, T., Niazi, S. (2008). Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 77, 206-213.

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric;

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; Velicogna, Isabella; Tormey, Blair; Donovan, Bailey; Kandiano, Evgeniya; von Schuckmann, Karina; Kharecha, Pushker; Legrande, Allegra N.; Bauer, Michael; Lo, Kwok-Wai

2016-03-01

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6-9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Global evolutionary isolation measures can capture key local conservation species in Nearctic and Neotropical bird communities

PubMed Central

Redding, David W.; Mooers, Arne O.; Şekercioğlu, Çağan H.; Collen, Ben

2015-01-01

Understanding how to prioritize among the most deserving imperilled species has been a focus of biodiversity science for the past three decades. Though global metrics that integrate evolutionary history and likelihood of loss have been successfully implemented, conservation is typically carried out at sub-global scales on communities of species rather than among members of complete taxonomic assemblages. Whether and how global measures map to a local scale has received little scrutiny. At a local scale, conservation-relevant assemblages of species are likely to be made up of relatively few species spread across a large phylogenetic tree, and as a consequence there are potentially relatively large amounts of evolutionary history at stake. We ask to what extent global metrics of evolutionary history are useful for conservation priority setting at the community level by evaluating the extent to which three global measures of evolutionary isolation (evolutionary distinctiveness (ED), average pairwise distance (APD) and the pendant edge or unique phylogenetic diversity (PD) contribution) capture community-level phylogenetic and trait diversity for a large sample of Neotropical and Nearctic bird communities. We find that prioritizing the most ED species globally safeguards more than twice the total PD of local communities on average, but that this does not translate into increased local trait diversity. By contrast, global APD is strongly related to the APD of those same species at the community level, and prioritizing these species also safeguards local PD and trait diversity. The next step for biologists is to understand the variation in the concordance of global and local level scores and what this means for conservation priorities: we need more directed research on the use of different measures of evolutionary isolation to determine which might best capture desirable aspects of biodiversity. PMID:25561674

GHG warming impact on the removal and transport of particulate matter: mean and extreme pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Lamarque, J. F.

2016-12-01

Particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) poses health threats to human populations. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with a chemistry-climate model, we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global warming alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the main cause for the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally, over North America and East Asia, the shift of future precipitation toward heavy intensity events, contributes to weakened wet removal flux. With the daily PM2.5 output, we also find that the well-known poleward shift of jet stream under global warming contributes to more frequent stagnation events (and less frequent cyclone passages) in northern hemispheric mid-latitude, which further enhances the occurrence of extreme pollution events.

Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; Selten, F M

2014-05-22

Precipitation changes projected for the end of the twenty-first century show an increase of more than 50 per cent in the Arctic regions. This marked increase, which is among the highest globally, has previously been attributed primarily to enhanced poleward moisture transport from lower latitudes. Here we use state-of-the-art global climate models to show that the projected increases in Arctic precipitation over the twenty-first century, which peak in late autumn and winter, are instead due mainly to strongly intensified local surface evaporation (maximum in winter), and only to a lesser degree due to enhanced moisture inflow from lower latitudes (maximum in late summer and autumn). Moreover, we show that the enhanced surface evaporation results mainly from retreating winter sea ice, signalling an amplified Arctic hydrological cycle. This demonstrates that increases in Arctic precipitation are firmly linked to Arctic warming and sea-ice decline. As a result, the Arctic mean precipitation sensitivity (4.5 per cent increase per degree of temperature warming) is much larger than the global value (1.6 to 1.9 per cent per kelvin). The associated seasonally varying increase in Arctic precipitation is likely to increase river discharge and snowfall over ice sheets (thereby affecting global sea level), and could even affect global climate through freshening of the Arctic Ocean and subsequent modulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Global Sea Level Rise and its Impact Estimation Model by Beach Mechanics, GDP, and Shoreline Length using Big Data Approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, A. A.

2016-12-01

Existing research has shown consistent increase in global sea levels due to warming of the climate; since 1870, average global sea level has risen by about 20 cm. There are processes that scientists and coastal engineers can follow to estimate the erosion and flooding risk impacts for specific locations based on historical data. However, there are no methods available to assess the risk impacts for locations where little research has been conducted. In this study, we introduce a prototype to better predict sea level change and land loss using big data technology. Our approach combines cluster analysis and artificial intelligence to classify and calculate impacts for locations worldwide. Data from 235 locations (89 countries) on sea level change was gathered from NOAA data investigations and other research organizations, including beach profile data, shoreline length data, and GDP data. The rate of sea level rise varies from -18 to 21 mm/yr. We divide the data into 4 groups (Group A: +0 to 9mm, Group B: +10 to +20mm, Group C: -0 to -9mm, and Group D:-10 to -20mm). Our research focuses on types A and B only since both reflect increase on sea level rise. We find the correlation between the sea level rise and factors such as the economic parameter (α), sea level rise height (h), beach breaker wave (Hb), gravitational constant (g), period of wave (T), foreshore slope (i), and sand sizes (D). We conclude the sea level rise impact ($ lost) can be more scientifically and precisely predicted using our model.

Analysis and Optimization of Building Energy Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuah, Jun Wei

Energy is one of the most important resources required by modern human society. In 2010, energy expenditures represented 10% of global gross domestic product (GDP). By 2035, global energy consumption is expected to increase by more than 50% from current levels. The increased pace of global energy consumption leads to significant environmental and socioeconomic issues: (i) carbon emissions, from the burning of fossil fuels for energy, contribute to global warming, and (ii) increased energy expenditures lead to reduced standard of living. Efficient use of energy, through energy conservation measures, is an important step toward mitigating these effects. Residential and commercial buildings represent a prime target for energy conservation, comprising 21% of global energy consumption and 40% of the total energy consumption in the United States. This thesis describes techniques for the analysis and optimization of building energy consumption. The thesis focuses on building retrofits and building energy simulation as key areas in building energy optimization and analysis. The thesis first discusses and evaluates building-level renewable energy generation as a solution toward building energy optimization. The thesis next describes a novel heating system, called localized heating. Under localized heating, building occupants are heated individually by directed radiant heaters, resulting in a considerably reduced heated space and significant heating energy savings. To support localized heating, a minimally-intrusive indoor occupant positioning system is described. The thesis then discusses occupant-level sensing (OLS) as the next frontier in building energy optimization. OLS captures the exact environmental conditions faced by each building occupant, using sensors that are carried by all building occupants. The information provided by OLS enables fine-grained optimization for unprecedented levels of energy efficiency and occupant comfort. The thesis also describes a retrofit-oriented building energy simulator, ROBESim, that natively supports building retrofits. ROBESim extends existing building energy simulators by providing a platform for the analysis of novel retrofits, in addition to simulating existing retrofits. Using ROBESim, retrofits can be automatically applied to buildings, obviating the need for users to manually update building characteristics for comparisons between different building retrofits. ROBESim also includes several ease-of-use enhancements to support users of all experience levels.

Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M.; Wohland, Jan; Perrette, Mahé; Golly, Antonius; Rogelj, Joeri; Childers, Katelin; Schewe, Jacob; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Hare, William; Schaeffer, Michiel

2016-04-01

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 °C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 °C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90 % in 2050 and projected to decline to 70 % by 2100 for a 1.5 °C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9 % to 17 % between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11 %. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50 cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 °C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 °C scenario. In a 1.5 °C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30 % compared to a 2 °C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming.

Malaria and Other Vector-Borne Infection Surveillance in the U.S. Department of Defense Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center-Global Program: Review of 2009 Accomplishments

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-04

global travel, tourism and trade, and blurred lines of demarcation between zoonotic VBI reservoirs and human populations increase vector exposure. Urban...Unprecedented levels of global travel, tourism and trade, and blurred lines of demarcation between zoonotic VBI reservoirs and human populations...made in 2009 to enhance or establish hospi- tal-based febrile illness surveillance platforms in Azer- baijan, Bolivia, Cambodia, Ecuador , Georgia

Our Mission to Planet Earth: A guide to teaching Earth system science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

Volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, floods, and El Nino are naturally occurring events over which humans have no control. But can human activities cause additional environmental change? Can scientists predict the global impacts of increased levels of pollutants in the atmosphere? Will the planet warm because increased levels of greenhouse gases, produced by the burning of fossil fuels, trap heat and prevent it from being radiated back into space? Will the polar ice cap melt, causing massive coastal flooding? Have humans initiated wholesale climatic change? These are difficult questions, with grave implications. Predicting global change and understanding the relationships among earth's components have increased in priority for the nation. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), along with many other government agencies, has initiated long-term studies of earth's atmosphere, oceans, and land masses using observations from satellite, balloon, and aircraft-borne instruments. NASA calls its research program Mission to Planet Earth. Because NASA can place scientific instruments far above earth's surface, the program allows scientists to explore earth's components and their interactions on a global scale.

Population-level genomics identifies the emergence and global spread of a human transmissible multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacterium

PubMed Central

Rodriguez-Rincon, Daniela; Everall, Isobel; Brown, Karen P; Moreno, Pablo; Verma, Deepshikha; Hill, Emily; Drijkoningen, Judith; Gilligan, Peter; Esther, Charles R; Noone, Peadar G; Giddings, Olivia; Bell, Scott C.; Thomson, Rachel; Wainwright, Claire E.; Coulter, Chris; Pandey, Sushil; Wood, Michelle E; Stockwell, Rebecca E; Ramsay, Kay A; Sherrard, Laura J; Kidd, Timothy J; Jabbour, Nassib; Johnson, Graham R; Knibbs, Luke D; Morawska, Lidia; Sly, Peter D; Jones, Andrew; Bilton, Diana; Laurenson, Ian; Ruddy, Michael; Bourke, Stephen; Bowler, Ian CJW; Chapman, Stephen J; Clayton, Andrew; Cullen, Mairi; Daniels, Thomas; Dempsey, Owen; Denton, Miles; Desai, Maya; Drew, Richard J; Edenborough, Frank; Evans, Jason; Folb, Jonathan; Humphrey, Helen; Isalska, Barbara; Jensen-Fangel, Søren; Jönsson, Bodil; Jones, Andrew M.; Katzenstein, Terese L; Lillebaek, Troels; MacGregor, Gordon; Mayell, Sarah; Millar, Michael; Modha, Deborah; Nash, Edward F; O’Brien, Christopher; O’Brien, Deirdre; Ohri, Chandra; Pao, Caroline S; Peckham, Daniel; Perrin, Felicity; Perry, Audrey; Pressler, Tania; Prtak, Laura; Qvist, Tavs; Robb, Ali; Rodgers, Helen; Schaffer, Kirsten; Shafi, Nadia; van Ingen, Jakko; Walshaw, Martin; Watson, Danie; West, Noreen; Whitehouse, Joanna; Haworth, Charles S; Harris, Simon R; Ordway, Diane; Parkhill, Julian; Floto, R. Andres

2016-01-01

Lung infections with Mycobacterium abscessus, a species of multidrug resistant nontuberculous mycobacteria, are emerging as an important global threat to individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) where they accelerate inflammatory lung damage leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Previously, M. abscessus was thought to be independently acquired by susceptible individuals from the environment. However, using whole genome analysis of a global collection of clinical isolates, we show that the majority of M. abscessus infections are acquired through transmission, potentially via fomites and aerosols, of recently emerged dominant circulating clones that have spread globally. We demonstrate that these clones are associated with worse clinical outcomes, show increased virulence in cell-based and mouse infection models, and thus represent an urgent international infection challenge. PMID:27846606

Effects of altered maternal folic acid, vitamin B12 and docosahexaenoic acid on placental global DNA methylation patterns in Wistar rats.

PubMed

Kulkarni, Asmita; Dangat, Kamini; Kale, Anvita; Sable, Pratiksha; Chavan-Gautam, Preeti; Joshi, Sadhana

2011-03-10

Potential adverse effects of excess maternal folic acid supplementation on a vegetarian population deficient in vitamin B(12) are poorly understood. We have previously shown in a rat model that maternal folic acid supplementation at marginal protein levels reduces brain omega-3 fatty acid levels in the adult offspring. We have also reported that reduced docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) levels may result in diversion of methyl groups towards DNA in the one carbon metabolic pathway ultimately resulting in DNA methylation. This study was designed to examine the effect of normal and excess folic acid in the absence and presence of vitamin B(12) deficiency on global methylation patterns in the placenta. Further, the effect of maternal omega 3 fatty acid supplementation on the above vitamin B(12) deficient diets was also examined. Our results suggest maternal folic acid supplementation in the absence of vitamin B(12) lowers plasma and placental DHA levels (p<0.05) and reduces global DNA methylation levels (p<0.05). When this group was supplemented with omega 3 fatty acids there was an increase in placental DHA levels and subsequently DNA methylation levels revert back to the levels of the control group. Our results suggest for the first time that DHA plays an important role in one carbon metabolism thereby influencing global DNA methylation in the placenta.

Projecting future sea level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

2006-01-01

California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future global sea level rises in examining possible impacts at California coastal and estuarine stations. Two climate models and three scenarios considered in this scenarios study provide a set of possible future weather and short-period climate fluctuations, and a range of potential long-term sea level rise values. A range of mean sea level rise was considered in combination with weather and El Niño fluctuations extracted from two global climate models and two GHG emissions scenarios. The mean sea level rise values, determined from a survey of several climate models, range from approximately 10–80 cm (3.9–31 in) between 2000 and 2100. The middle to higher end of this range would substantially exceed the historical rate of sea level rise of 15–20 cm (5.9–7.9 in)per century observed at San Francisco and San Diego during the last 100 years. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides and the surge and waves associated with storms. The potential for impacts of future sea level rise was assessed from the occurrence of hourly sea level extremes. The occurrence of extreme events follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases. The confluence of Low barometric pressures from storms and the presence large waves at the same time substantially increases the likelihood of high, damaging sea levels along the California coast. Similarly, astronomical tides and disturbances in sea level that are caused by weather and climate fluctuations are x transmitted into the San Francisco Bay and Delta, and on into the lower reaches of the Sacramento River. In addition to elevating Bay and Delta sea levels directly through inverse barometer and wind effects, storms may generate heavy precipitation and high fresh water runoff and cause floods in the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta, increasing the potential for inundation of levees and other structures. There may also be increased risk of levee failure due to the hydraulics and geometry of these structures. Rising sea levels from climate change will increase the frequency and duration of extreme high water levels, causing historical coastal and San Francisco Bay/Delta structure design criteria to be exceeded.

Combating poor-quality anti-malarial medicines: a call to action.

PubMed

Bassat, Quique; Tanner, Marcel; Guerin, Philippe J; Stricker, Kirstin; Hamed, Kamal

2016-06-01

The circulation of poor-quality medicines continues to undermine the fight against many life-threatening diseases. Anti-malarial medicines appear to have been particularly compromised and present a major public health threat in malaria-endemic countries, negatively affecting individuals and their communities. Concerted collaborative efforts are required from global, regional and national organizations, involving the public and private sectors, to address the problem. While many initiatives are underway, a number of unmet needs deserve urgent and increased multisector attention. At the global level, there is a need for an international public health legal framework or treaty on poor-quality medicines, with statutes suitable for integration into national laws. In addition, increased international efforts are required to strengthen the governance of global supply chains and enhance cooperation between national medicine regulation authorities and law enforcement bodies. Increased investment is needed in innovative technologies that will enable healthcare teams to detect poor-quality medicines at all levels of the supply chain. At the regional level, a number of initiatives would be beneficial-key areas are standardization, simplification, and reciprocal recognition of registration processes and development of quality control capacity in regional centres of excellence that are better aligned with public health needs; improved surveillance methods and creation of a framework for compulsory and transparent reporting of poor-quality medicines; additional support for national medicine regulation authorities and other national partner authorities; and an increase in support for regional laboratories to boost their capabilities in detecting poor-quality medicines. It is vital that all stakeholders involved in efforts against poor-quality anti-malarial medicines extend and strengthen their actions in these critical areas and thus effectively support global health development and malaria elimination programmes.

Introduction to the Special Issue: Across the horizon: scale effects in global change research.

PubMed

Gornish, Elise S; Leuzinger, Sebastian

2015-01-01

As a result of the increasing speed and magnitude in which habitats worldwide are experiencing environmental change, making accurate predictions of the effects of global change on ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them have become an important goal for ecologists. Experimental and modelling approaches aimed at understanding the linkages between factors of global change and biotic responses have become numerous and increasingly complex in order to adequately capture the multifarious dynamics associated with these relationships. However, constrained by resources, experiments are often conducted at small spatiotemporal scales (e.g. looking at a plot of a few square metres over a few years) and at low organizational levels (looking at organisms rather than ecosystems) in spite of both theoretical and experimental work that suggests ecological dynamics across scales can be dissimilar. This phenomenon has been hypothesized to occur because the mechanisms that drive dynamics across scales differ. A good example is the effect of elevated CO2 on transpiration. While at the leaf level, transpiration can be reduced, at the stand level, transpiration can increase because leaf area per unit ground area increases. The reported net effect is then highly dependent on the spatiotemporal scale. This special issue considers the biological relevancy inherent in the patterns associated with the magnitude and type of response to changing environmental conditions, across scales. This collection of papers attempts to provide a comprehensive treatment of this phenomenon in order to help develop an understanding of the extent of, and mechanisms involved with, ecological response to global change. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Geochemical monitoring for potential environmental impacts of geologic sequestration of CO2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kharaka, Yousif K.; Cole, David R.; Thordsen, James J.; Gans, Kathleen D.; Thomas, Randal B.

2013-01-01

Carbon dioxide sequestration is now considered an important component of the portfolio of options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to stabilize their atmospheric levels at values that would limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century (Pacala and Socolow 2004; IPCC 2005, 2007; Benson and Cook 2005; Benson and Cole 2008; IEA 2012; Romanak et al. 2013). Increased anthropogenic emissions of CO2 have raised its atmospheric concentrations from about 280 ppmv during pre-industrial times to ~400 ppmv today, and based on several defined scenarios, CO2 concentrations are projected to increase to values as high as 1100 ppmv by 2100 (White et al. 2003; IPCC 2005, 2007; EIA 2012; Global CCS Institute 2012). An atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450 ppmv is generally the accepted level that is needed to limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century. This temperature limit likely would moderate the adverse effects related to climate change that could include sea-level rise from the melting of alpine glaciers and continental ice sheets and from the ocean warming; increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, floods, droughts, and tropical storms; and changes in the amount, timing, and distribution of rain, snow, and runoff (IPCC 2007; Sundquist et al. 2009; IEA 2012). Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are also increasing the amount of CO2 dissolved in ocean water lowering its pH from 8.1 to 8.0, with potentially disruptive effects on coral reefs, plankton and marine ecosystems (Adams and Caldeira 2008; Schrag 2009; Sundquist et al. 2009). Sedimentary basins in general and deep saline aquifers in particular are being investigated as possible repositories for the large volumes of anthropogenic CO2 that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes (Hitchon 1996; Benson and Cole 2008; Verma and Warwick 2011).

Lordosis restoration after anterior longitudinal ligament release and placement of lateral hyperlordotic interbody cages during the minimally invasive lateral transpsoas approach: a radiographic study in cadavers.

PubMed

Uribe, Juan S; Smith, Donald A; Dakwar, Elias; Baaj, Ali A; Mundis, Gregory M; Turner, Alexander W L; Cornwall, G Bryan; Akbarnia, Behrooz A

2012-11-01

In the surgical treatment of spinal deformities, the importance of restoring lumbar lordosis is well recognized. Smith-Petersen osteotomies (SPOs) yield approximately 10° of lordosis per level, whereas pedicle subtraction osteotomies result in as much as 30° increased lumbar lordosis. Recently, selective release of the anterior longitudinal ligament (ALL) and placement of lordotic interbody grafts using the minimally invasive lateral retroperitoneal transpsoas approach (XLIF) has been performed as an attempt to increase lumbar lordosis while avoiding the morbidity of osteotomy. The objective of the present study was to measure the effect of the selective release of the ALL and varying degrees of lordotic implants placed using the XLIF approach on segmental lumbar lordosis in cadaveric specimens between L-1 and L-5. Nine adult fresh-frozen cadaveric specimens were placed in the lateral decubitus position. Lateral radiographs were obtained at baseline and after 4 interventions at each level as follows: 1) placement of a standard 10° lordotic cage, 2) ALL release and placement of a 10° lordotic cage, 3) ALL release and placement of a 20° lordotic cage, and 4) ALL release and placement of a 30° lordotic cage. All four cages were implanted sequentially at each interbody level between L-1 and L-5. Before and after each intervention, segmental lumbar lordosis was measured in all specimens at each interbody level between L-1 and L-5 using the Cobb method on lateral radiography. The mean baseline segmental lordotic angles at L1-2, L2-3, L3-4, and L4-5 were -3.8°, 3.8°, 7.8°, and 22.6°, respectively. The mean lumbar lordosis was 29.4°. Compared with baseline, the mean postimplantation increase in segmental lordosis in all levels combined was 0.9° in Intervention 1 (10° cage without ALL release); 4.1° in Intervention 2 (ALL release with 10° cage); 9.5° in Intervention 3 (ALL release with 20° cage); and 11.6° in Intervention 4 (ALL release with 30° cage). Foraminal height in the same sequence of conditions increased by 6.3%, 4.6%, 8.8% and 10.4%, respectively, while central disc height increased by 16.1%, 22.3%, 52.0% and 66.7%, respectively. Following ALL release and placement of lordotic cages at all 4 lumbar levels, the average global lumbar lordosis increase from preoperative lordosis was 3.2° using 10° cages, 12.0° using 20° cages, and 20.3° using 30° cages. Global lumbar lordosis with the cages at 4 levels exhibited a negative correlation with preoperative global lordosis (10°, R = -0.756; 20°, -0.730; and 30°, R = -0.437). Combined ALL release and placement of increasingly lordotic lateral interbody cages leads to progressive gains in segmental lordosis in the lumbar spine. Mean global lumbar lordosis similarly increased with increasingly lordotic cages, although the effect with a single cage could not be evaluated. Greater global lordosis was achieved with smaller preoperative lordosis. The mean maximum increase in segmental lordosis of 11.6° followed ALL release and placement of the 30° cage.

Global projections of extreme sea levels in view of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Feyen, L.; Voukouvalas, E.; Mentaschi, L.; Verlaan, M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Jackson, L. P.

2017-12-01

Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coasts. The present contribution aims to present global ESL projections obtained by combining dynamic simulations of all the major ESL components during the present century, considering the latest CMIP5 projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Baseline values are obtained combining global re-analyses of tides, waves, and storm surges, including the effects of tropical cyclones. The global average RSLR is projected around 20 and 24 cm by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively and is projected to reach 46 and 67 cm by the year 2100. The largest increases in MSL are projected along the South Pacific, Australia and West Africa, while the smaller RSLR is projected around East North America, and Europe. Contributions from waves and storm surges show a very weak increasing global trend, which becomes statistically significant only towards the end of the century and under RCP8.5. However, for areas like the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, Alaska, East Bering Sea, as well as the Southern Ocean, climate extremes could increase up to 15%. By the end of this century the 100-year event ESL along the world's coastlines will on average increase by 48 cm for RCP4.5 and 75 cm for RCP8.5. The strongest rise is projected along the Southern Ocean exceeding 1 m under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Increase exceeding 80 cm is projected for East Asia, West North America, East South America, and the North Indian Ocean. Considering always the business as usual and the year 2100, the lowest increase in ESL100 is projected along the East North America and Europe (below 50 cm). The present findings indicate that, under both RCPs, by the year 2050 the present day 100-year event will occur every 5 years along a large part of the tropics, rendering coastal zones exposed to intermittent flood hazard.

Estimated global nitrogen deposition using NO2 column density

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Xuehe; Jiang, Hong; Zhang, Xiuying; Liu, Jinxun; Zhang, Zhen; Jin, Jiaxin; Wang, Ying; Xu, Jianhui; Cheng, Miaomiao

2013-01-01

Global nitrogen deposition has increased over the past 100 years. Monitoring and simulation studies of nitrogen deposition have evaluated nitrogen deposition at both the global and regional scale. With the development of remote-sensing instruments, tropospheric NO2 column density retrieved from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) and Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) sensors now provides us with a new opportunity to understand changes in reactive nitrogen in the atmosphere. The concentration of NO2 in the atmosphere has a significant effect on atmospheric nitrogen deposition. According to the general nitrogen deposition calculation method, we use the principal component regression method to evaluate global nitrogen deposition based on global NO2 column density and meteorological data. From the accuracy of the simulation, about 70% of the land area of the Earth passed a significance test of regression. In addition, NO2 column density has a significant influence on regression results over 44% of global land. The simulated results show that global average nitrogen deposition was 0.34 g m−2 yr−1 from 1996 to 2009 and is increasing at about 1% per year. Our simulated results show that China, Europe, and the USA are the three hotspots of nitrogen deposition according to previous research findings. In this study, Southern Asia was found to be another hotspot of nitrogen deposition (about 1.58 g m−2 yr−1 and maintaining a high growth rate). As nitrogen deposition increases, the number of regions threatened by high nitrogen deposits is also increasing. With N emissions continuing to increase in the future, areas whose ecosystem is affected by high level nitrogen deposition will increase.

Sediment and Turbidity Associated with Offshore Dredging Increase Coral Disease Prevalence on Nearby Reefs

PubMed Central

Pollock, F. Joseph; Lamb, Joleah B.; Field, Stuart N.; Heron, Scott F.; Schaffelke, Britta; Shedrawi, George; Bourne, David G.; Willis, Bette L.

2014-01-01

In recent decades, coral reef ecosystems have declined to the extent that reefs are now threatened globally. While many water quality parameters have been proposed to contribute to reef declines, little evidence exists conclusively linking specific water quality parameters with increased disease prevalence in situ. Here we report evidence from in situ coral health surveys confirming that chronic exposure to dredging-associated sediment plumes significantly increase the prevalence of white syndromes, a devastating group of globally important coral diseases. Coral health surveys were conducted along a dredging-associated sediment plume gradient to assess the relationship between sedimentation, turbidity and coral health. Reefs exposed to the highest number of days under the sediment plume (296 to 347 days) had two-fold higher levels of disease, largely driven by a 2.5-fold increase in white syndromes, and a six-fold increase in other signs of compromised coral health relative to reefs with little or no plume exposure (0 to 9 days). Multivariate modeling and ordination incorporating sediment exposure level, coral community composition and cover, predation and multiple thermal stress indices provided further confirmation that sediment plume exposure level was the main driver of elevated disease and other compromised coral health indicators. This study provides the first evidence linking dredging-associated sedimentation and turbidity with elevated coral disease prevalence in situ. Our results may help to explain observed increases in global coral disease prevalence in recent decades and suggest that minimizing sedimentation and turbidity associated with coastal development will provide an important management tool for controlling coral disease epizootics. PMID:25029525

Sediment and turbidity associated with offshore dredging increase coral disease prevalence on nearby reefs.

PubMed

Pollock, F Joseph; Lamb, Joleah B; Field, Stuart N; Heron, Scott F; Schaffelke, Britta; Shedrawi, George; Bourne, David G; Willis, Bette L

2014-01-01

In recent decades, coral reef ecosystems have declined to the extent that reefs are now threatened globally. While many water quality parameters have been proposed to contribute to reef declines, little evidence exists conclusively linking specific water quality parameters with increased disease prevalence in situ. Here we report evidence from in situ coral health surveys confirming that chronic exposure to dredging-associated sediment plumes significantly increase the prevalence of white syndromes, a devastating group of globally important coral diseases. Coral health surveys were conducted along a dredging-associated sediment plume gradient to assess the relationship between sedimentation, turbidity and coral health. Reefs exposed to the highest number of days under the sediment plume (296 to 347 days) had two-fold higher levels of disease, largely driven by a 2.5-fold increase in white syndromes, and a six-fold increase in other signs of compromised coral health relative to reefs with little or no plume exposure (0 to 9 days). Multivariate modeling and ordination incorporating sediment exposure level, coral community composition and cover, predation and multiple thermal stress indices provided further confirmation that sediment plume exposure level was the main driver of elevated disease and other compromised coral health indicators. This study provides the first evidence linking dredging-associated sedimentation and turbidity with elevated coral disease prevalence in situ. Our results may help to explain observed increases in global coral disease prevalence in recent decades and suggest that minimizing sedimentation and turbidity associated with coastal development will provide an important management tool for controlling coral disease epizootics.

Global Vision, Local Reality: Transforming Pre-Primary Teacher Training in Tanzania

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilinski, Bethany; Nguyen, Cuong Huy; Landgraf, Jessica M.

2016-01-01

Global attention to early childhood education (ECE) has led to an increased focus on ECE teacher training as a critical component of providing young children with access to high-quality ECE programs. In this paper, we ask how Tanzanian stakeholders at different levels of implementation experienced and responded to efforts to build capacity in…

Increasing Student Awareness of Global and Future Issues through a Secondary Level Mini-Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Decker, Dianna K.

This study examines the problem of high school students as future leaders entering the adult world unprepared in the areas of global and international issues. The study was conducted with 145 students, teachers, and administrators in a private high school with university affiliations in a large suburban area. Eventually two students became the…

The Correlation between Global Citizenship Perceptions and Cultural Intelligence Levels of Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yüksel, Azize; Eres, Figen

2018-01-01

The increase of communication methods in the globalized world, the reduction of locality to a minimum in the economy and as a result of this, the migration from less economically developed countries to developed countries which in turn results in close interaction between ethnicities, all make it impossible for a homogenous society to exist and…

Impacts of the large increase in international ship traffic 2000-2007 on tropospheric ozone and methane.

PubMed

Dalsøren, Stig B; Eide, Magnus S; Myhre, Gunnar; Endresen, Oyvind; Isaksen, Ivar S A; Fuglestvedt, Jan S

2010-04-01

The increase in civil world fleet ship emissions during the period 2000-2007 and the effects on key tropospheric oxidants are quantified using a global Chemical Transport Model (CTM). We estimate a substantial increase of 33% in global ship emissions over this period. The impact of ship emissions on tropospheric oxidants is mainly caused by the relatively large fraction of NOx in ship exhaust. Typical increases in yearly average surface ozone concentrations in the most impacted areas are 0.5-2.5 ppbv. The global annual mean radiative forcing due to ozone increases in the troposphere is 10 mWm(-2) over the period 2000-2007. We find global average tropospheric OH increase of 1.03% over the same period. As a result of this the global average tropospheric methane concentration is reduced by approximately 2.2% over a period corresponding to the turnover time. The resulting methane radiative forcing is -14 mWm(-2) with an additional contribution of -6 mWm(-2) from methane induced reduction in ozone. The net forcing of the ozone and methane changes due to ship emissions changes between 2000 and 2007 is -10 mWm(-2). This is significant compared to the net forcing of these components in 2000. Our findings support earlier observational studies indicating that ship traffic may be a major contributor to recent enhancement of background ozone at some coastal stations. Furthermore, by reducing global mean tropospheric methane by 40 ppbv over its turnover time it is likely to contribute to the recent observed leveling off in global mean methane concentration.

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality ismore » projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O 3 level and of 0.3 mg m 3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO 2, H 2O 2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O 3, and increases in CH 4 and VOCs. Increasing NO x and O 3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O 3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m 2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.« less

Future sea-level rise from tidewater and ice-shelf tributary glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schannwell, C.; Barrand, N. E.; Radic, V.

2016-12-01

Iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers contribute significant amounts to global sea-level rise (SLR) from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Owing to ongoing ice dynamical changes (collapse of buttressing ice shelves), these contributions have accelerated in recent years. As the AP is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, further ice dynamical adjustment (increased ice discharge) is expected over the next two centuries. Here the first regional SLR projection of the AP from both iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers in response to ice-shelf collapse is presented. The British Antarctic Survey Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Model (BAS-APISM), previously shown to be suitable for the unique topographic setting from the AP, is forced by temperature output from 13 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In response to the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5), simulations project contribution to SLR of 28±16 to 32±16 mm by 2300, partitioned approximately equally between contributions from tidewater glaciers and ice-shelf tributary glaciers. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea-level rise projections to 2300 are dominated by tidewater glaciers ( ˜8-18 mm). In this cooler scenario, 2.4±1 mm is added to global sea levels from ice-shelf tributary drainage basins as fewer ice-shelves are projected to collapse. Sea-level projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers are dominated by drainage basins feeding George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for ˜70% of simulated SLR. Combined total ice dynamical SLR projections to 2300 from the AP vary between 11±2 and 32±16 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), depending on the emission scenario used. These simulations suggest that omission of tidewater glaciers could lead to a substantial underestimation of the ice-sheet's contribution to regional SLR. Iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers contribute significant amounts to global sea-level rise (SLR) from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Owing to ongoing ice dynamical changes (collapse of buttressing ice shelves), these contributions have accelerated in recent years. As the AP is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, further ice dynamical adjustment (increased ice discharge) is expected over the next two centuries. Here the first regional SLR projection of the AP from both iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers in response to ice-shelf collapse is presented. The British Antarctic Survey Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Model (BAS-APISM), previously shown to be suitable for the unique topographic setting from the AP, is forced by temperature output from 13 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In response to the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5), simulations project contribution to SLR of 28±16 to 32±16 mm by 2300, partitioned approximately equally between contributions from tidewater glaciers and ice-shelf tributary glaciers. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea-level rise projections to 2300 are dominated by tidewater glaciers ( ˜8-18 mm). In this cooler scenario, 2.4±1 mm is added to global sea levels from ice-shelf tributary drainage basins as fewer ice-shelves are projected to collapse. Sea-level projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers are dominated by drainage basins feeding George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for ˜70% of simulated SLR. Combined total ice dynamical SLR projections to 2300 from the AP vary between 11±2 and 32±16 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), depending on the emission scenario used. These simulations suggest that omission of tidewater glaciers could lead to a substantial underestimation of the ice-sheet's contribution to regional SLR.

Managing the plant microbiome for biocontrol fungi: Examples from Hypocreales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Feeding an increasing global population requires continued improvements in agricultural efficiency and productivity. Meeting estimated future production levels requires the adoption of practices that increase output without environmental degradation associated with external inputs to supplement nut...

Global warming and tropical cyclone climate in the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Nam-Young

Violent tropical cyclones (TCs) continue to inflict serious impacts on national economies and welfare, but how they are responding to global warming has not been fully clarified. Here I construct an empirical framework that shows the observations supporting a strong link between rising global ocean warmth and increasing trade-off between TC intensity and frequency in the western North Pacific. Thermodynamic structure of the tropical western North Pacific with high global ocean warmth is characterized by convectively more unstable lower troposphere with greater heat and moisture, but this instability is simultaneously accompanied by anomalous high pressure in the middle and upper troposphere over the same region. Increasing trade-off level between TC intensity and frequency in a warmer year proves that this environment further inhibits the TC occurrences over the region, but TCs that form tend to discharge stored energy to upper troposphere with stronger intensities. By increasing the intensity threshold at higher levels we confirmed that the TC climate connection with global ocean warmth occurs throughout the strongest portion of TCs, and the environmental connection of the TC climate is more conspicuous in the extreme portion of TCs. Intensities at the strongest 10~% of the western North Pacific TCs are comparable to super typhoons on average, the increasing trade-off magnitude clearly suggests that super typhoons in a warmer year gets stronger. Conclusively, the negative collinear feature of the thermodynamics influences the portion of TCs at the highest intensities, and super typhoons are likely to become stronger at the expense of overall TC frequencies in a warmer world. The consequence of this finding is that record-breaking TC intensities occur at the expense of overall TC frequencies under global warming. TC activity is understood as a variation which is independent of global warming, and could be assumed to be an internal variability having no trend. Frequency variation and super typhoon intensity variation are regarded as the addition of global warming influence on TC activity variation. The structure depicts how a previous intensity record is overtaken and frequency falls continuously in the global warming environment in a linear perspective. A peak TC activity year when global ocean warmth is the highest ever is likely to experience a record-breaking intensity. In the same way, the least number of annual TCs may appear when a lull of TC activity occurs in the warmest year.

Future productivity and phenology changes in European grasslands for different warming levels: implications for grassland management and carbon balance.

PubMed

Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Soussana, Jean-François; Klumpp, Katja; Sultan, Benjamin

2017-12-01

Europe has warmed more than the global average (land and ocean) since pre-industrial times, and is also projected to continue to warm faster than the global average in the twenty-first century. According to the climate models ensemble projections for various climate scenarios, annual mean temperature of Europe for 2071-2100 is predicted to be 1-5.5 °C higher than that for 1971-2000. Climate change and elevated CO 2 concentration are anticipated to affect grassland management and livestock production in Europe. However, there has been little work done to quantify the European-wide response of grassland to future climate change. Here we applied ORCHIDEE-GM v2.2, a grid-based model for managed grassland, over European grassland to estimate the impacts of future global change. Increases in grassland productivity are simulated in response to future global change, which are mainly attributed to the simulated fertilization effect of rising CO 2 . The results show significant phenology shifts, in particular an earlier winter-spring onset of grass growth over Europe. A longer growing season is projected over southern and southeastern Europe. In other regions, summer drought causes an earlier end to the growing season, overall reducing growing season length. Future global change allows an increase of management intensity with higher than current potential annual grass forage yield, grazing capacity and livestock density, and a shift in seasonal grazing capacity. We found a continual grassland soil carbon sink in Mediterranean, Alpine, North eastern, South eastern and Eastern regions under specific warming level (SWL) of 1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate. However, this carbon sink is found to saturate, and gradually turn to a carbon source at warming level reaching 3.5 °C. This study provides a European-wide assessment of the future changes in productivity and phenology of grassland, and their consequences for the management intensity and the carbon balance. The simulated productivity increase in response to future global change enables an intensification of grassland management over Europe. However, the simulated increase in the interannual variability of grassland productivity over some regions may reduce the farmers' ability to take advantage of the increased long-term mean productivity in the face of more frequent, and more severe drops of productivity in the future.

Changes in Cross-Correlations as an Indicator for Systemic Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Zeyu; Podobnik, Boris; Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen

2012-11-01

The 2008-2012 global financial crisis began with the global recession in December 2007 and exacerbated in September 2008, during which the U.S. stock markets lost 20% of value from its October 11 2007 peak. Various studies reported that financial crisis are associated with increase in both cross-correlations among stocks and stock indices and the level of systemic risk. In this paper, we study 10 different Dow Jones economic sector indexes, and applying principle component analysis (PCA) we demonstrate that the rate of increase in principle components with short 12-month time windows can be effectively used as an indicator of systemic risk--the larger the change of PC1, the higher the increase of systemic risk. Clearly, the higher the level of systemic risk, the more likely a financial crisis would occur in the near future.

Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostberg, Sebastian; Schewe, Jacob; Childers, Katelin; Frieler, Katja

2018-05-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the policy discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models often use global mean temperature change (ΔGMT) as a sole measure of climate change and, therefore, need to describe impacts as a function of ΔGMT. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with ΔGMT. It is less clear to what extent more complex biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ΔGMT, even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ΔGMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast estimation of crop yield changes for emissions scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ΔGMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we find that the variability in crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model, geographical patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations.

Global variations in the level of cancer-related research activity and correlation to cancer-specific mortality: Proposal for a global curriculum.

PubMed

Are, C; Caniglia, A; Malik, Mohammed; Smith, L; Cummings, Charmaine; Lecoq, Carine; Berman, R; Audisio, R; Wyld, L

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyze global variations in the level of cancer-related research activity and correlate this with cancer-specific mortality. The SCOPUS database was explored to obtain data relating to the number of cancer-related publications per country. Cancer-specific mortality rates were obtained from the World Health Organization. Global variations in the level of scholarly activity were analyzed and correlated with variations in cancer-specific mortality. Data for 142 countries were obtained and significant variations in the level of research activity was noted. The level of research activity increased with rising socio-economic status. The United States was the most prolific country with 222,300 publications followed by Japan and Germany. Several countries in different regions of the world had a low level of research activity. An inverse relationship between the level of research activity and cancer-specific mortality was noted. This relationship persisted even in countries with a low level of research activity. The socioeconomic status of a nation and geographic location (continent) had a mixed influence with an overall apparent correlation with cancer-related research activity. This study demonstrates significant global variation in the level of cancer-related research activity and a correlation with cancer-specific mortality. The presence of a minimum set of standards for research literacy, as proposed by the European Society of Surgical Oncology and the Society of Surgical Oncology may contribute to enhanced research activity and improve outcomes for cancer patients worldwide. Copyright © 2017 Society of Surgical Oncology, European Society of Surgical Oncology. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Biofuels in the long-run global energy supply mix for transportation.

PubMed

Timilsina, Govinda R

2014-01-13

Various policy instruments along with increasing oil prices have contributed to a sixfold increase in global biofuels production over the last decade (2000-2010). This rapid growth has proved controversial, however, and has raised concerns over potential conflicts with global food security and climate change mitigation. To address these concerns, policy support is now focused on advanced or second-generation biofuels instead of crop-based first-generation biofuels. This policy shift, together with the global financial crisis, has slowed the growth of biofuels production, which has remained stagnant since 2010. Based upon a review of the literature, this paper examines the potential long-run contribution of biofuels to the global energy mix, particularly for transportation. We find that the contribution of biofuels to global transportation fuel demand is likely to be limited to around 5% over the next 10-15 years. However, a number of studies suggest that biofuels could contribute up to a quarter of global transportation fuel demand by 2050, provided technological breakthroughs reduce the costs of sustainably produced advanced biofuels to a level where they can compete with petroleum fuels.

Do invasive alien plants benefit more from global environmental change than native plants?

PubMed

Liu, Yanjie; Oduor, Ayub M O; Zhang, Zhen; Manea, Anthony; Tooth, Ifeanna M; Leishman, Michelle R; Xu, Xingliang; van Kleunen, Mark

2017-08-01

Invasive alien plant species threaten native biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem functions and can cause large economic damage. Plant invasions have been predicted to further increase under ongoing global environmental change. Numerous case studies have compared the performance of invasive and native plant species in response to global environmental change components (i.e. changes in mean levels of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO 2 concentration or nitrogen deposition). Individually, these studies usually involve low numbers of species and therefore the results cannot be generalized. Therefore, we performed a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis to assess whether there is a general pattern of differences in invasive and native plant performance under each component of global environmental change. We compiled a database of studies that reported performance measures for 74 invasive alien plant species and 117 native plant species in response to one of the above-mentioned global environmental change components. We found that elevated temperature and CO 2 enrichment increased the performance of invasive alien plants more strongly than was the case for native plants. Invasive alien plants tended to also have a slightly stronger positive response to increased N deposition and increased precipitation than native plants, but these differences were not significant (N deposition: P = 0.051; increased precipitation: P = 0.679). Invasive alien plants tended to have a slightly stronger negative response to decreased precipitation than native plants, although this difference was also not significant (P = 0.060). So while drought could potentially reduce plant invasion, increases in the four other components of global environmental change considered, particularly global warming and atmospheric CO 2 enrichment, may further increase the spread of invasive plants in the future. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Gangs and a global sociological imagination.

PubMed

Fraser, Alistair; Hagedorn, John M

2018-02-01

Across the globe, the phenomenon of youth gangs has become an important and sensitive public issue. In this context, an increasing level of research attention has focused on the development of universalized definitions of gangs in a global context. In this article, we argue that this search for similarity has resulted in a failure to recognize and understand difference. Drawing on an alternative methodology we call a 'global exchange', this article suggests three concepts-homologies of habitus, vectors of difference and transnational reflexivity-that seek to re-engage the sociological imagination in the study of gangs and globalization.

Gangs and a global sociological imagination

PubMed Central

Fraser, Alistair; Hagedorn, John M

2016-01-01

Across the globe, the phenomenon of youth gangs has become an important and sensitive public issue. In this context, an increasing level of research attention has focused on the development of universalized definitions of gangs in a global context. In this article, we argue that this search for similarity has resulted in a failure to recognize and understand difference. Drawing on an alternative methodology we call a ‘global exchange’, this article suggests three concepts—homologies of habitus, vectors of difference and transnational reflexivity—that seek to re-engage the sociological imagination in the study of gangs and globalization. PMID:29503595

Economic globalization and oral health.

PubMed

Hobdell, M H

2001-05-01

To briefly review the origins of economic globalization and examine the evidence available concerning its possible impact on oral health. Based on Medline searches 1966-1999 and review of Health Wrights: Politics of Health database. SPECIFIC ORAL DISEASES: Dental caries, destructive periodontal diseases, cancrum oris and oral cancer. The reported growing disparity between rich and poor populations, both internationally and nationally, is arguably being exacerbated by economic globalization. Increasing levels of the above specific oral diseases might be attributed, in part, to this economic phenomenon.

Aggressive blood pressure treatment of hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage may lead to global cerebral hypoperfusion: Case report and imaging perspective.

PubMed

Gavito-Higuera, Jose; Khatri, Rakesh; Qureshi, Ihtesham A; Maud, Alberto; Rodriguez, Gustavo J

2017-12-28

Hypoperfusion injury related to blood pressure decrease in acute hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage continues to be a controversial topic. Aggressive treatment is provided with the intent to stop the ongoing bleeding. However, there may be additional factors, including autoregulation and increased intracranial pressure, that may limit this approach. We present here a case of acute hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage, in which aggressive blood pressure management to levels within the normal range led to global cerebral ischemia within multiple border zones. Global cerebral ischemia may be of concern in the management of hypertensive hemorrhage in the presence of premorbid poorly controlled blood pressure and increased intracranial pressure.

Impacts of globalization in health.

PubMed

Ioannou, Andriani; Mechili, Aggelos; Kolokathi, Aikaterini; Diomidous, Marianna

2013-01-01

Globalization is the process of international integration arising from the interchange of world views, products, ideas, and other aspects of culture. Globalization describes the interplay of macro-social forces across cultures. The purpose of this study is a systematic review of the bibliography on the impacts of globalization in health. The consequences of globalization on health present a twofold dimension, on the one hand affects the health of the population and on the other hand organization and functioning of health systems. As a result of globalization, there has been an undeniable economic development and technological progress to support the level of health around the world, improving the health status of certain populations with a beneficial increase in life expectancy. In many aspects globalization is good but there are many problems too.

Future sea-level rise from tidewater and ice-shelf tributary glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schannwell, Clemens; Barrand, Nicholas E.; Radić, Valentina

2016-11-01

Iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers contribute significant amounts to global sea-level rise (SLR) from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Owing to ongoing ice dynamical changes (collapse of buttressing ice shelves), these contributions have accelerated in recent years. As the AP is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, further ice dynamical adjustment (increased ice discharge) is expected over the next two centuries. In this paper, the first regional SLR projection of the AP from both iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers in response to ice-shelf collapse is presented. An ice-sheet model forced by temperature output from 13 global climate models (GCMs), in response to the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), projects AP contribution to SLR of 28 ± 16 to 32 ± 16 mm by 2300, partitioned approximately equally between contributions from tidewater glaciers and ice-shelf tributary glaciers. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea-level rise projections to 2300 are dominated by tidewater glaciers (∼8-18 mm). In this cooler scenario, 2.4 ± 1 mm is added to global sea levels from ice-shelf tributary drainage basins as fewer ice-shelves are projected to collapse. Sea-level projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers are dominated by drainage basins feeding George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for ∼70% of simulated SLR. Combined total ice dynamical SLR projections to 2300 from the AP vary between 11 ± 2 and 32 ± 16 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), depending on the emission scenario used. These simulations suggest that omission of tidewater glaciers could lead to a substantial underestimation of the ice-sheet's contribution to regional SLR.

Irreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehlert, Dana; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

In the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global warming to this target after exceeding it by artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is possible. One important aspect is the reversibility of ocean heat uptake and associated sea level rise, which have very long (centennial to millennial) response timescales. In this study the response of sea level rise due to thermal expansion to a 1 % yearly increase of atmospheric CO2 up to a quadrupling of the pre-industrial concentration followed by a 1 % yearly decline back to the pre-industrial CO2 concentration is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We find that global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to pre-industrial levels for over 1000 years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. This finding is independent of the strength of vertical sub-grid-scale ocean mixing implemented in the model. Furthermore, GMTSL rises faster than it declines in response to a symmetric rise and decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration partly because the deep ocean continues to warm for centuries after atmospheric CO2 returns to the pre-industrial concentration. Both GMTSL rise and decline rates increase with increasing vertical ocean mixing. Exceptions from this behaviour arise if the overturning circulations in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean intensify beyond pre-industrial levels in model versions with lower vertical mixing, which leads to rapid cooling of the deep ocean.

Globalization and multi-spatial trends in the coverage of protected-area conservation (1980-2000).

PubMed

Zimmerer, Karl S; Galt, Ryan E; Buck, Margaret V

2004-12-01

This study is focused on the global expansion of protected-area coverage that occurred during the 1980--2000 period. We examine the multi-scale patterning of four of the basic facets of this expansion: i) estimated increases at the world-regional and country-level scales of total protected-area coverage; ii) transboundary protected areas; iii) conservation corridor projects; and iv) type of conservation management. Geospatial patterning of protected-area designations is a reflection of the priorities of global conservation organizations and the globalization of post-Cold War political and economic arrangements. Local and national-level factors (political leadership and infrastructure) as well as international relations such as multilateral and bilateral aid combine with these globalization processes to impact the extent, type, and location of protected-area designations. We conclude that the interaction of these factors led to the creation and reinforcement of marked spatial differences (rather than tendencies toward worldwide evenness or homogenization) in the course of protected-area expansion during the 1980--2000 period.

European freshwater vulnerability under high rates of global warming and plausible socio-economic narratives.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Grillakis, Manolis; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Recent developments could postpone climate actions in the frame of the global climate deal of the Paris Agreement, making higher-end global warming increasingly plausible. Although not clear in the COP21 water security is fundamental to achieving low-carbon ambitions, thus climate and water policies are closely related. The projection of the relationship between global warming, water availability and water stress through their complex interactions among different sectors, along with the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation actions, is a rather challenging task under the prism of climate change. Here we try to develop and apply a simple, transparent conceptual framework describing European vulnerability to hydrological drought of current hydro-climatic and socioeconomic status as well as projected vulnerability at specific levels of global warming (1.5oC, 2oC and 4oC) following highly rates of climatic change (RCP8.5) and considering different levels of adaptation associated to specific socioeconomic pathways (SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5).

Uncertainty of the 20th century sea-level rise due to vertical land motion errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santamaría-Gómez, Alvaro; Gravelle, Médéric; Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Spada, Giorgio; Wöppelmann, Guy

2017-09-01

Assessing the vertical land motion (VLM) at tide gauges (TG) is crucial to understanding global and regional mean sea-level changes (SLC) over the last century. However, estimating VLM with accuracy better than a few tenths of a millimeter per year is not a trivial undertaking and many factors, including the reference frame uncertainty, must be considered. Using a novel reconstruction approach and updated geodetic VLM corrections, we found the terrestrial reference frame and the estimated VLM uncertainty may contribute to the global SLC rate error by ± 0.2 mmyr-1. In addition, a spurious global SLC acceleration may be introduced up to ± 4.8 ×10-3 mmyr-2. Regional SLC rate and acceleration errors may be inflated by a factor 3 compared to the global. The difference of VLM from two independent Glacio-Isostatic Adjustment models introduces global SLC rate and acceleration biases at the level of ± 0.1 mmyr-1 and 2.8 ×10-3 mmyr-2, increasing up to 0.5 mm yr-1 and 9 ×10-3 mmyr-2 for the regional SLC. Errors in VLM corrections need to be budgeted when considering past and future SLC scenarios.

Non-communicable diseases and human rights: Global synergies, gaps and opportunities.

PubMed

Ferguson, Laura; Tarantola, Daniel; Hoffmann, Michael; Gruskin, Sofia

2017-10-01

The incorporation of human rights in health policy and programmes is known to strengthen responses to health problems and help address disparities created or exacerbated by illness yet this remains underexplored in relation to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Aiming to understand existing synergies and how they might be further strengthened, we assessed the extent to which human rights are considered in global NCD policies and strategies and the degree of attention given to NCDs by select United Nations human rights mechanisms. Across global NCD policies and strategies, rhetorical assertions regarding human rights appear more often than actionable statements, thus limiting their implementation and impact. Although no human rights treaty explicitly mentions NCDs, some human rights monitoring mechanisms have been paying increasing attention to NCDs. This provides important avenues for promoting the incorporation of human rights norms and standards into NCD responses as well as for accountability. Linking NCDs and human rights at the global level is critical for encouraging national-level action to promote better outcomes relating to both health and human rights. The post-2015 development agenda constitutes a key entry point for highlighting these synergies and strengthening opportunities for health and rights action at global, national and local levels.

Ground air: A first approximation of the Earth's second largest reservoir of carbon dioxide gas.

PubMed

Baldini, James U L; Bertram, Rachel A; Ridley, Harriet E

2018-03-01

It is becoming increasingly clear that a substantial reservoir of carbon exists in the unsaturated zone of aquifers, though the total size of this reservoir on a global scale remains unquantified. Here we provide the first broad estimate of the amount of carbon dioxide gas found in this terrestrial reservoir. We calculate that between 2 and 53 PgC exists as gaseous CO 2 in aquifers worldwide, generated by the slow microbial oxidation of organic particles transported into aquifers by percolating groundwater. Importantly, this carbon reservoir is in the form of CO 2 gas, and is therefore transferable to the Earth's atmosphere without any phase change. On a coarse scale, water table depths are partially controlled by local sea level; sea level lowering therefore allows slow carbon sequestration into the reservoir and sea level increases force rapid CO 2 outgassing from this reservoir. High-resolution cave air pCO 2 data demonstrate that sea level variability does affect CO 2 outgassing rates from the unsaturated zone, and that the CO 2 outgassing due to sea level rise currently occurs on daily (tidal) timescales. We suggest that global mean water table depth must modulate the global unsaturated zone volume and the size of this carbon reservoir, potentially affecting atmospheric CO 2 on geological timescales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence in Deltas: Estimating Future Flood Risk Through Integrated Natural and Human System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2016-12-01

Deltas are highly sensitive to local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. We present a new delta flood exposure and risk framework for estimating the sensitivity of deltas to relative sea-level rise. We have applied this framework to a set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators over 48 major river deltas to quantify how contemporary risks vary across delta systems. The risk modeling framework incorporates upstream sediment flux and coastal land subsidence models, global empirical estimates of contemporary storm surge exposure, and population distribution and growth. Future scenarios are used to test the impacts on coastal flood risk of upstream dam construction, coastal population growth, accelerated sea-level rise, and enhanced storm surge. Results suggest a wide range of outcomes across different delta systems within each scenario. Deltas in highly engineered watersheds (Mississippi, Rhine) exhibit less sensitivity to increased dams due to saturation of sediment retention effects, though planned or under-construction dams are expected to have a substantial impact in the Yangtze, Irrawaddy, and Magdalena deltas. Population growth and sea-level rise are expected to be the dominant drivers of increased human risk in most deltas, with important exceptions in several countries, particularly China, where population are forecast to contract over the next several decades.

A complete Holocene record of trematode-bivalve infection and implications for the response of parasitism to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntley, John Warren; Fürsich, Franz T.; Alberti, Matthias; Hethke, Manja; Liu, Chunlian

2014-12-01

Increasing global temperature and sea-level rise have led to concern about expansions in the distribution and prevalence of complex-lifecycle parasites (CLPs). Indeed, numerous environmental variables can influence the infectivity and reproductive output of many pathogens. Digenean trematodes are CLPs with intermediate invertebrate and definitive vertebrate hosts. Global warming and sea level rise may affect these hosts to varying degrees, and the effect of increasing temperature on parasite prevalence has proven to be nonlinear and difficult to predict. Projecting the response of parasites to anthropogenic climate change is vital for human health, and a longer term perspective (104 y) offered by the subfossil record is necessary to complement the experimental and historical approaches of shorter temporal duration (10-1 to 103 y). We demonstrate, using a high-resolution 9,600-y record of trematode parasite traces in bivalve hosts from the Holocene Pearl River Delta, that prevalence was significantly higher during the earliest stages of sea level rise, significantly lower during the maximum transgression, and statistically indistinguishable in the other stages of sea-level rise and delta progradation. This stratigraphic paleobiological pattern represents the only long-term high-resolution record of pathogen response to global change, is consistent with fossil and recent data from other marine basins, and is instructive regarding the future of disease. We predict an increase in trematode prevalence concurrent with anthropogenic warming and marine transgression, with negative implications for estuarine macrobenthos, marine fisheries, and human health.

Physiological differences and changes in global DNA methylation levels in Agave angustifolia Haw. albino variant somaclones during the micropropagation process.

PubMed

Duarte-Aké, Fátima; Castillo-Castro, Eduardo; Pool, Felipe Barredo; Espadas, Francisco; Santamaría, Jorge M; Robert, Manuel L; De-la-Peña, Clelia

2016-12-01

Global DNA methylation changes caused by in vitro conditions are associated with the subculturing and phenotypic variation in Agave angustifolia Haw. While the relationship between the development of albinism and in vitro culture is well documented, the role of epigenetic processes in this development leaves some important questions unanswered. During the micropropagation of Agave angustifolia Haw., we found three different phenotypes, green (G), variegated (V) and albino (A). To understand the physiological and epigenetic differences among the somaclones, we analyzed several morphophysiological parameters and changes in the DNA methylation patterns in the three phenotypes during their in vitro development. We found that under in vitro conditions, the V plantlets maintained their CAM photosynthetic capacity, while the A variant showed no pigments and lost its CAM photosynthetic ability. Epigenetic analysis revealed that global DNA methylation increased in the G phenotype during the first two subcultures. However, after that time, DNA methylation levels declined. This hypomethylation correlated with the appearance of V shoots in the G plantlets. A similar correlation occurred in the V phenotype, where an increase of 2 % in the global DNA methylation levels was correlated with the generation of A shoots in the V plantlets. This suggests that an "epigenetic stress memory" during in vitro conditions causes a chromatin shift that favors the generation of variegated and albino shoots.

Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union

PubMed Central

Österblom, Henrik; Folke, Carl

2015-01-01

Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.

Prognosis for a sick planet.

PubMed

Maslin, Mark

2008-12-01

Global warming is the most important science issue of the 21st century, challenging the very structure of our global society. The study of past climate has shown that the current global climate system is extremely sensitive to human-induced climate change. The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution has already caused changes with clear evidence for a 0.75 degrees C rise in global temperatures and 22 cm rise in sea level during the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis report (2007) predicts that global temperatures by 2100 could rise by between 1.1 degrees C and 6.4 degrees C. Sea level could rise by between 28 cm and 79 cm, more if the melting of the polar ice caps accelerates. In addition, weather patterns will become less predictable and the occurrence of extreme climate events, such as storms, floods, heat waves and droughts, will increase. The potential effects of global warming on human society are devastating. We do, however, already have many of the technological solutions to cure our sick planet.

A sensitive gel-based global O-glycomics approach reveals high levels of mannosyl glycans in the high mass region of the mouse brain proteome.

PubMed

Breloy, Isabelle; Pacharra, Sandra; Aust, Christina; Hanisch, Franz-Georg

2012-08-01

We developed a gel-based global O-glycomics method applicable for highly complex protein mixtures entrapped in discontinuous gradient gel layers. The protocol is based on in-gel proteolysis with pronase followed by (glyco)peptide elution and off-gel reductive β-elimination. The protocol offers robust performance with sensitivity in the low picomolar range, is compatible with gel-based proteomics, and shows superior performance in global applications in comparison with workflows eliminating glycans in-gel or from electroblotted glycoproteins. By applying this method, we analyzed the O-glycome of human myoblasts and of the mouse brain O-glycoproteome. After semipreparative separation of mouse brain proteins by one-dimensional SDS gel electrophoresis, the O-glycans from proteins in different mass ranges were characterized with a focus on O-mannose-based glycans. The relative proportion of the latter, which generally represent a rare modification, increases to comparatively high levels in the mouse brain proteome in dependence of increasing protein masses.

Local and Global Auditory Processing: Behavioral and ERP Evidence

PubMed Central

Sanders, Lisa D.; Poeppel, David

2007-01-01

Differential processing of local and global visual features is well established. Global precedence effects, differences in event-related potentials (ERPs) elicited when attention is focused on local versus global levels, and hemispheric specialization for local and global features all indicate that relative scale of detail is an important distinction in visual processing. Observing analogous differential processing of local and global auditory information would suggest that scale of detail is a general organizational principle of the brain. However, to date the research on auditory local and global processing has primarily focused on music perception or on the perceptual analysis of relatively higher and lower frequencies. The study described here suggests that temporal aspects of auditory stimuli better capture the local-global distinction. By combining short (40 ms) frequency modulated tones in series to create global auditory patterns (500 ms), we independently varied whether pitch increased or decreased over short time spans (local) and longer time spans (global). Accuracy and reaction time measures revealed better performance for global judgments and asymmetric interference that were modulated by amount of pitch change. ERPs recorded while participants listened to identical sounds and indicated the direction of pitch change at the local or global levels provided evidence for differential processing similar to that found in ERP studies employing hierarchical visual stimuli. ERP measures failed to provide evidence for lateralization of local and global auditory perception, but differences in distributions suggest preferential processing in more ventral and dorsal areas respectively. PMID:17113115

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

PubMed

Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

2015-04-14

Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost−benefit assessment of climate policies

PubMed Central

Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Lontzek, Thomas S.; Narita, Daiju

2015-01-01

Most current cost−benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost−benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost−benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost−benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719

Development of the brain's structural network efficiency in early adolescence: A longitudinal DTI twin study.

PubMed

Koenis, Marinka M G; Brouwer, Rachel M; van den Heuvel, Martijn P; Mandl, René C W; van Soelen, Inge L C; Kahn, René S; Boomsma, Dorret I; Hulshoff Pol, Hilleke E

2015-12-01

The brain is a network and our intelligence depends in part on the efficiency of this network. The network of adolescents differs from that of adults suggesting developmental changes. However, whether the network changes over time at the individual level and, if so, how this relates to intelligence, is unresolved in adolescence. In addition, the influence of genetic factors in the developing network is not known. Therefore, in a longitudinal study of 162 healthy adolescent twins and their siblings (mean age at baseline 9.9 [range 9.0-15.0] years), we mapped local and global structural network efficiency of cerebral fiber pathways (weighted with mean FA and streamline count) and assessed intelligence over a three-year interval. We find that the efficiency of the brain's structural network is highly heritable (locally up to 74%). FA-based local and global efficiency increases during early adolescence. Streamline count based local efficiency both increases and decreases, and global efficiency reorganizes to a net decrease. Local FA-based efficiency was correlated to IQ. Moreover, increases in FA-based network efficiency (global and local) and decreases in streamline count based local efficiency are related to increases in intellectual functioning. Individual changes in intelligence and local FA-based efficiency appear to go hand in hand in frontal and temporal areas. More widespread local decreases in streamline count based efficiency (frontal cingulate and occipital) are correlated with increases in intelligence. We conclude that the teenage brain is a network in progress in which individual differences in maturation relate to level of intellectual functioning. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Global Change Data Center: Mission, Organization, Major Activities, and 2003 Highlights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

Rapid, efficient access to Earth sciences data from satellites and ground validation stations is fundamental to the nation's efforts to understand the effects of global environmental changes and their implications for public policy. It becomes a bigger challenge in the future when data volumes increase from current levels to terabytes per day. Demands on data storage, data access, network throughput, processing power, and database and information management are increased by orders of magnitude, while budgets remain constant and even shrink.The Global Change Data Center's (GCDC) mission is to develop and operate data systems, generate science products, and provide archival and distribution services for Earth science data in support of the U.S. Global Change Program and NASA's Earth Sciences Enterprise. The ultimate product of the GCDC activities is access to data to support research, education, and public policy.

Glaciers. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes.

PubMed

Marzeion, Ben; Cogley, J Graham; Richter, Kristin; Parkes, David

2014-08-22

The ongoing global glacier retreat is affecting human societies by causing sea-level rise, changing seasonal water availability, and increasing geohazards. Melting glaciers are an icon of anthropogenic climate change. However, glacier response times are typically decades or longer, which implies that the present-day glacier retreat is a mixed response to past and current natural climate variability and current anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that only 25 ± 35% of the global glacier mass loss during the period from 1851 to 2010 is attributable to anthropogenic causes. Nevertheless, the anthropogenic signal is detectable with high confidence in glacier mass balance observations during 1991 to 2010, and the anthropogenic fraction of global glacier mass loss during that period has increased to 69 ± 24%. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The oxygen side of sulfate constrains global biospheric productivity in the mid-Phanerozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, B. A.

2009-12-01

Recent work has read in the oxygen side of sulfate a record of CO2 concentrations and extreme environments on Neoproterozoic Earth [1, 2]. The connection between CO2 levels and total isotopic composition of mineral proxies for marine sulfate was motivated by an empirical correlation between CO2 concentrations and in 17O anomalies in samples of atmospheric gases preserved as bubbles in ice cores [3,4]. The 17O anomaly in atmospheric O2 has been interpreted to originate primarily from stratospheric photochemical cycles of O3, O2, and CO2 [3, 4]. Both CO2 and O3 form the 17O-enriched partners for the 17O-depleted O2 and, given a fixed atmospheric lifetime for O2, isotopic mass balance dictates that increasing CO2 levels will drive larger relative 17O deficits in O2. With a photochemically-calibrated relationship between the relative 17O anomaly in atmospheric O2 and atmospheric CO2 levels [1], the amount of CO2 in an ancient atmosphere can be directly estimated from the isotopic record of atmospheric O2 bound up in the oxygen side of sulfate. Although they are correlated, the relative 17O anomaly in atmospheric O2 is not only a function of atmospheric CO2 levels. Photosynthetic O2 is characterized by isotopically ‘normal’ oxygen sourced from the global hydrosphere [3]. Increased photosynthetic O2 production, therefore, dilutes the isotopic anomaly found in atmospheric O2. Measurements of the 17O anomaly in O2 from ice cores allow global changes in global biosphere productivity to be traced back to 60 ka ago [3, 4]. Applying similar analysis to recent datasets of the 17O anomaly in marine sulfates [1] and atmospheric CO2 levels [5] produces quantitative global biospheric productivity estimates for the time interval from 310 to 240 Ma ago. Although the time resolution is coarse, much of the mid-Phanerozoic was characterized by global biospheric productivity similar in magnitude to the average global biospheric productivity for the last 10 ka. Counterintuitively, this includes the global mid-Carboniferous biosphere. Global biospheric productivity at the end of the Permian, however, was apparently greatly enhanced relative to the rest of the mid-Phanerozoic. [1] Huiming Bao, J. Lyons, Chuanming Zhou (2008) Nature 453 504. [2] Huiming Bao, I.J. Fairchild, P.M. Wynn, C. Spötl (2009) Science 323 119. [3] B. Luz, E. Barkan, M. L. Bender, M. H. Thiemens, K. A. Boering (1999) Nature 400 547. [4] T. Blunier, B. Barnett, M. L. Bender, M. B. Hendricks (2002) Global Biogeochem. Cycles 16 doi:10.1029/2001GB001460. [5] D. L. Royer (2006) Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 70 5665.

Impaired global, and compensatory local, biological motion processing in people with high levels of autistic traits.

PubMed

van Boxtel, Jeroen J A; Lu, Hongjing

2013-01-01

People with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) are hypothesized to have poor high-level processing but superior low-level processing, causing impaired social recognition, and a focus on non-social stimulus contingencies. Biological motion perception provides an ideal domain to investigate exactly how ASD modulates the interaction between low and high-level processing, because it involves multiple processing stages, and carries many important social cues. We investigated individual differences among typically developing observers in biological motion processing, and whether such individual differences associate with the number of autistic traits. In Experiment 1, we found that individuals with fewer autistic traits were automatically and involuntarily attracted to global biological motion information, whereas individuals with more autistic traits did not show this pre-attentional distraction. We employed an action adaptation paradigm in the second study to show that individuals with more autistic traits were able to compensate for deficits in global processing with an increased involvement in local processing. Our findings can be interpreted within a predictive coding framework, which characterizes the functional relationship between local and global processing stages, and explains how these stages contribute to the perceptual difficulties associated with ASD.

Economic impact of GM crops: the global income and production effects 1996-2012.

PubMed

Brookes, Graham; Barfoot, Peter

2014-01-01

A key part of any assessment of the global value of crop biotechnology in agriculture is an examination of its economic impact at the farm level. This paper follows earlier annual studies which examined economic impacts on yields, key costs of production, direct farm income and effects, and impacts on the production base of the four main crops of soybeans, corn, cotton and canola. The commercialization of genetically modified (GM) crops has continued to occur at a rapid rate, with important changes in both the overall level of adoption and impact occurring in 2012. This annual updated analysis shows that there have been very significant net economic benefits at the farm level amounting to $18.8 billion in 2012 and $116.6 billion for the 17-year period (in nominal terms). These economic gains have been divided roughly 50% each to farmers in developed and developing countries. GM technology have also made important contributions to increasing global production levels of the four main crops, having added 122 million tonnes and 230 million tonnes respectively, to the global production of soybeans and maize since the introduction of the technology in the mid-1990s.

Impaired Global, and Compensatory Local, Biological Motion Processing in People with High Levels of Autistic Traits

PubMed Central

van Boxtel, Jeroen J. A.; Lu, Hongjing

2013-01-01

People with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) are hypothesized to have poor high-level processing but superior low-level processing, causing impaired social recognition, and a focus on non-social stimulus contingencies. Biological motion perception provides an ideal domain to investigate exactly how ASD modulates the interaction between low and high-level processing, because it involves multiple processing stages, and carries many important social cues. We investigated individual differences among typically developing observers in biological motion processing, and whether such individual differences associate with the number of autistic traits. In Experiment 1, we found that individuals with fewer autistic traits were automatically and involuntarily attracted to global biological motion information, whereas individuals with more autistic traits did not show this pre-attentional distraction. We employed an action adaptation paradigm in the second study to show that individuals with more autistic traits were able to compensate for deficits in global processing with an increased involvement in local processing. Our findings can be interpreted within a predictive coding framework, which characterizes the functional relationship between local and global processing stages, and explains how these stages contribute to the perceptual difficulties associated with ASD. PMID:23630514

More frequent moments in the climate change debate as emissions continue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2015-12-01

Recent years have witnessed unprecedented interest in how the burning of fossil fuels may impact on the global climate system. Such visibility of this issue is in part due to the increasing frequency of key international summits to debate emissions levels, including the 2015 21st Conference of Parties meeting in Paris. In this perspective we plot a timeline of significant climate meetings and reports, and against metrics of atmospheric greenhouse gas changes and global temperature. One powerful metric is cumulative CO2 emissions that can be related to past and future warming levels. That quantity is analysed in detail through a set of papers in this ERL focus issue. We suggest it is an open question as to whether our timeline implies a lack of progress in constraining climate change despite multiple recent keynote meetings—or alternatively—that the increasing level of debate is encouragement that solutions will be found to prevent any dangerous warming levels?

Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme sea levels in the South Pacific — A regional assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; McBride, John L.

2012-01-01

This paper reviews the current understanding of the effect of climate change on extreme sea levels in the South Pacific region. This region contains many locations that are vulnerable to extreme sea levels in the current climate, and projections indicate that this vulnerability will increase in the future. The recent publication of authoritative statements on the relationship between global warming and global sea level rise, tropical cyclones and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon has motivated this review. Confident predictions of global mean sea level rise are modified by regional differences in the steric (density-related) component of sea level rise and changing gravitational interactions between the ocean and the ice sheets which affect the regional distribution of the eustatic (mass-related) contribution to sea level rise. The most extreme sea levels in this region are generated by tropical cyclones. The intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones is likely to increase, but many climate models project a substantial decrease in tropical cyclone numbers in this region, which may lead to an overall decrease in the total number of intense tropical cyclones. This projection, however, needs to be better quantified using improved high-resolution climate model simulations of tropical cyclones. Future changes in ENSO may lead to large regional variations in tropical cyclone incidence and sea level rise, but these impacts are also not well constrained. While storm surges from tropical cyclones give the largest sea level extremes in the parts of this region where they occur, other more frequent high sea level events can arise from swell generated by distant storms. Changes in wave climate are projected for the tropical Pacific due to anthropogenically-forced changes in atmospheric circulation. Future changes in sea level extremes will be caused by a combination of changes in mean sea level, regional sea level trends, tropical cyclone incidence and wave climate. Recommendations are given for research to increase understanding of the response of these factors to climate change. Implications of the results for adaptation research are also discussed.

Climate Impacts of CALIPSO-Guided Corrections to Black Carbon Aerosol Vertical Distributions in a Global Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil; Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping

2017-10-01

We alleviate the bias in the tropospheric vertical distribution of black carbon aerosols (BC) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) using the Cloud-Aerosol and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)-derived vertical profiles. A suite of sensitivity experiments are conducted with 1x, 5x, and 10x the present-day model estimated BC concentration climatology, with (corrected, CC) and without (uncorrected, UC) CALIPSO-corrected BC vertical distribution. The globally averaged top of the atmosphere radiative flux perturbation of CC experiments is ˜8-50% smaller compared to uncorrected (UC) BC experiments largely due to an increase in low-level clouds. The global average surface temperature increases, the global average precipitation decreases, and the ITCZ moves northward with the increase in BC radiative forcing, irrespective of the vertical distribution of BC. Further, tropical expansion metrics for the poleward extent of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) indicate that simulated HC expansion is not sensitive to existing model biases in BC vertical distribution.

Global temperature change

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

2006-01-01

Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

The 2015 global production capacity of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine.

PubMed

McLean, Kenneth A; Goldin, Shoshanna; Nannei, Claudia; Sparrow, Erin; Torelli, Guido

2016-10-26

A global shortage and inequitable access to influenza vaccines has been cause for concern for developing countries who face dire consequences in the event of a pandemic. The Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines (GAP) was launched in 2006 to increase global capacity for influenza vaccine production to address these concerns. It is widely recognized that well-developed infrastructure to produce seasonal influenza vaccines leads to increased capacity to produce pandemic influenza vaccines. This article summarizes the results of a survey administered to 44 manufacturers to assess their production capacity for seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza vaccine production. When the GAP was launched in 2006, global production capacity for seasonal and pandemic vaccines was estimated to be 500million and 1.5billion doses respectively. Since 2006 there has been a significant increase in capacity, with the 2013 survey estimating global capacity at 1.5billion seasonal and 6.2billion pandemic doses. Results of the current survey showed that global seasonal influenza vaccine production capacity has decreased since 2013 from 1.504billion doses to 1.467billion doses. However, notwithstanding the overall global decrease in seasonal vaccine capacity there were notable positive changes in the distribution of production capacity with increases noted in South East Asia (SEAR) and the Western Pacific (WPR) regions, albeit on a small scale. Despite a decrease in seasonal capacity, there has been a global increase of pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity from 6.2 billion doses in 2013 to 6.4 billion doses in 2015. This growth can be attributed to a shift towards more quadrivalent vaccine production and also to increased use of adjuvants. Pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity is at its highest recorded levels however challenges remain in maintaining this capacity and in ensuring access in the event of a pandemic to underserved regions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Coupled Climate Model Simulations to Bracket the Impacts of Increasing Asian Aerosols Emissions and Aggressive Future Clean Air Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, M. K.; Zhang, Y.; Sun, S.; Olsen, S.; Dean, S.; Bleck, R.; Chylek, P.; Lohmann, U.

2007-12-01

We report ensemble simulations of the climatic impacts of changing anthropogenic aerosols (sulfate, organic and black carbon), which bracket two policy scenarios: increased emissions over China and India by a factor of three over current levels and a global reduction of aerosols by a factor of ten, using the NCAR-CCSM3 and NASA- GISS coupled ocean atmosphere models. Tripling the anthropogenic aerosols over China and India has a small cooling effect (about -0.12°C) on the global mean surface air temperature with a slight reduction in global mean precipitation by ~ -0.8%. On the other hand, global reduction of anthropogenic aerosols by a factor of ten would warm the global surface temperatures by 0.4 °C - 0.8 °C in less than 10 years after the reduction takes place as well as an increase in global precipitation by 3.0% - 3.3%. Comparisons of NCAR and NASA model simulations also suggest that the indirect effects of aerosols are about 1-2 times the direct effects of aerosols. Tripling Asian anthropogenic aerosols results in regional cooling and a reduction in precipitation primarily in Asia, with cooling (warming) also noted over the high latitudes of Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Warming and increase in precipitation in the case of global reduction of aerosols are concentrated mainly over polluted land areas in both hemispheres. Tropical regions experience large changes in precipitation in both scenarios. We provide new insights into the climate model sensitivities of global mean temperatures and rainfall to aerosol forcing. Our results underscore the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas accumulation rates as the world reduces air pollution to improve human health and that potential increased Asian pollution, offsets only a small fraction of the warming by greenhouse gases.

From the Myth of Level Playing Fields to the Reality of a Finite Planet: Comment on "A Global Social Support System: What the International Community Could Learn From the United States' National Basketball Association's Scheme for Redistribution of New Talent".

PubMed

Labonté, Ronald

2015-11-19

Despite the mythology that the global economy with its trade rules creates a 'level playing field,' international trade has never involved 'level players.' The inequalities in outcomes generated by the more powerful winning more frequently has led to innovative ideas for ex post redistribution to make the matches between the players both fairer, and in the analogy to basketball used by the authors, more interesting and even more competitive. The proposal for a Global Social Protection Fund, financed by a small tax on the winners to enhance social protection spending for the losers, presumably increasing the latter's capabilities to compete more effectively in the global market game, is one such idea. It has much to commend it. Several problems, however, stand in its way, apart from those inherent within nations themselves and to which the authors give some attention. First, much global trade is now intra-firm rather than international, making calculations of which nations win or lose exceedingly difficult. Second, tax havens persist without the transparency and global regulatory oversights that would allow a better rendering of where winnings are stashed. Third, pre-distribution inequalities (those arising from market activities before government tax and transfer measures apply) are still increasing as labour's power to wrestle global capital into some ameliorative social contract diminishes. Fourth, there are finite limits to a planet on the cusp of multiple environmental crises. These problems do not diminish the necessity of alternative policy playbooks such as the proposed Fund, but point to the need to embrace the new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a single set, such that economic growth for the bottom half of humanity includes deep structural reforms to both pre-distribution and redistribution, if the targets for environmental survival are to be met. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Mechanistic representation of soil N in CMAQ v5.1

EPA Science Inventory

Recent global nitrogen (N) budgets estimate that soil reactive N emissions (predominantly from biochemical transformations in soil) have increased by a factor of 2-3 from pre-industrial levels. These increases are especially pronounced in agricultural regions. The reactive N emis...

Development of summer diets for hybrid striped bass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature and ammonia increase dramatically during summer production of sunshine bass. Global temperatures are projected to increase. A factorial experiment investigated the effects of three digestible protein (DP; 33, 40, 47%), two lipid (L; 10, 18 %) and two ration levels (satiation, restricted)...

Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda

2018-05-01

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual precipitation is expected to decrease in southeastern China. Therefore, flood risk in northern China and drought risk in southern China should draw more attention for a global air temperature increase from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Major transgression during Late Cretaceous constrained by basin sediments in northern Africa: implication for global rise in sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Kaixuan; Chen, Hanlin; Lin, Xiubin; Wang, Fang; Yang, Shufeng; Wen, Zhixin; Wang, Zhaoming; Zhang, Guangya; Tong, Xiaoguang

2017-12-01

The global rise in sea level during the Late Cretaceous has been an issue under discussion by the international geological community. Despite the significance, its impact on the deposition of continental basins is not well known. This paper presents the systematic review on stratigraphy and sedimentary facies compiled from 22 continental basins in northern Africa. The results indicate that the region was dominated by sediments of continental facies during Early Cretaceous, which were replaced by deposits of marine facies in Late Cretaceous. The spatio-temporal distribution of sedimentary facies suggests marine facies deposition reached as far south as Taoudeni-Iullemmeden-Chad-Al Kufra-Upper Egypt basins during Turonian to Campanian. These results indicate that northern Africa underwent significant transgression during Late Cretaceous reaching its peak during Turonian to Coniacian. This significant transgression has been attributed to the global high sea-level during this time. Previous studies show that global rise in sea level in Late Cretaceous may have been driven by an increase in the volume of ocean water (attributed to high CO2 concentration and subsequently warm climate) and a decrease in the volume of the ocean basin (attributed to rapid production of oceanic crust and seamounts). Tectonic mechanism of rapid production of oceanic crust and seamounts could play a fundamental role in driving the global rise in sea level and subsequent transgression in northern Africa during Late Cretaceous.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

PubMed

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-20

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-01-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

Ten-year change in plasma amyloid beta levels and late-life cognitive decline.

PubMed

Okereke, Olivia I; Xia, Weiming; Selkoe, Dennis J; Grodstein, Francine

2009-10-01

Plasma levels of amyloid beta peptide (Abeta) are potential biomarkers of early cognitive impairment and decline and of Alzheimer disease risk. To relate midlife plasma Abeta measures and 10-year change in plasma Abeta measures since midlife to late-life cognitive decline. Prospective study of a population-based sample. Academic research. Plasma Abeta40 and Abeta42 levels were measured in 481 Nurses' Health Study participants in late midlife (mean age, 63.6 years) and again 10 years later (mean age, 74.6 years). Cognitive testing also began 10 years after the initial blood draw. Participants completed 3 repeated telephone-based assessments (mean span, 4.1 years). Multivariable linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate relations of midlife plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios and Abeta42 levels to late-life cognitive decline, as well as relations of 10-year change in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios and Abeta42 levels to cognitive decline. The 3 primary outcomes were the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS) findings, a global score averaging the results of all tests (TICS, immediate and delayed verbal recall, category fluency, and attention), and a verbal memory score averaging the results of 4 tests of verbal recall. Higher midlife plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios were associated with worse late-life decline on the global score (P = .04 for trend). Furthermore, increase in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios since midlife predicted greater decline in the global score (P = .03 for trend) and in the TICS (P = .02 for trend). There was no association of cognitive decline with midlife plasma Abeta42 levels alone or with change in Abeta42 levels since midlife. In this large community-dwelling sample, higher plasma Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios in late midlife and increases in Abeta40 to Abeta42 ratios 10 years later were significantly associated with greater decline in global cognition at late life.

Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Scherer, Martin; Trapp, Robert J.

2013-01-01

Although severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States, their response to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained a prominent source of uncertainty for climate change impacts assessment. We find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5, global climate model ensemble indicates robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States in response to further global warming. For spring and autumn, these robust increases emerge before mean global warming of 2 °C above the preindustrial baseline. We also find that days with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong low-level wind shear increase in occurrence, suggesting an increasing likelihood of atmospheric conditions that contribute to the most severe events, including tornadoes. In contrast, whereas expected decreases in mean wind shear have been used to argue for a negative influence of global warming on severe thunderstorms, we find that decreases in shear are in fact concentrated in days with low CAPE and therefore do not decrease the total occurrence of severe environments. Further, we find that the shift toward high CAPE is most concentrated in days with low convective inhibition, increasing the occurrence of high-CAPE/low-convective inhibition days. The fact that the projected increases in severe environments are robust across a suite of climate models, emerge in response to relatively moderate global warming, and result from robust physical changes suggests that continued increases in greenhouse forcing are likely to increase severe thunderstorm occurrence, thereby increasing the risk of thunderstorm-related damage. PMID:24062439

Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Scherer, Martin; Trapp, Robert J

2013-10-08

Although severe thunderstorms are one of the primary causes of catastrophic loss in the United States, their response to elevated greenhouse forcing has remained a prominent source of uncertainty for climate change impacts assessment. We find that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5, global climate model ensemble indicates robust increases in the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments over the eastern United States in response to further global warming. For spring and autumn, these robust increases emerge before mean global warming of 2 °C above the preindustrial baseline. We also find that days with high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong low-level wind shear increase in occurrence, suggesting an increasing likelihood of atmospheric conditions that contribute to the most severe events, including tornadoes. In contrast, whereas expected decreases in mean wind shear have been used to argue for a negative influence of global warming on severe thunderstorms, we find that decreases in shear are in fact concentrated in days with low CAPE and therefore do not decrease the total occurrence of severe environments. Further, we find that the shift toward high CAPE is most concentrated in days with low convective inhibition, increasing the occurrence of high-CAPE/low-convective inhibition days. The fact that the projected increases in severe environments are robust across a suite of climate models, emerge in response to relatively moderate global warming, and result from robust physical changes suggests that continued increases in greenhouse forcing are likely to increase severe thunderstorm occurrence, thereby increasing the risk of thunderstorm-related damage.

Global increasing of mean sea level and erroneous treatment of a role of thermal factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkin, Yu. V.

2009-04-01

Satellite methods of studies of the ocean surface - methods of altimetry - have been obtained intensive development in the last decades (since 1993). However, altimetry studies with the help of special satellites such as TOPEX-Poseidon not only have not cleared up understanding of the phenomenon of increase of sea level (SLR), but have even more confused and without that a complex question on the reasons of increase of sea level. Appeared, that classical determinations of average velocity of increase of sea level on coastal observations (1.4-1.7 mm / yr) approximately for 0.8-1.0 mm / yr it is less, rather than by modern satellite determinations of satellites TOPEX - Poseidon etc. (2.5 - 2.8 mm / yr). On the basis of the data of altimetry observations of TOPEX-Poseidon and Jason for the period 1993-2003 for geocentric velocity of increase of sea level (of global ocean) the value 2.8+/-0.4 mm / yr [1] has been obtained. In the given report the full answer is actually is given to a question put by leading experts on research of the sea level: "The TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason satellite altimeter missions provided a 12 year record of sea level change, which show increase of global mean sea level of 2.8+/-0.4 mm/yr, with considerable geographic variation. An important question for climate studies is to determine the cause of this change - specifically how much of the change is due to steric (heating) versus eustatic (runoff, melting ice, etc.) contribution?" [1]. There is, a big value of average velocity of increase of the sea level on the satellite data, it is possible to explain only by kinematical effect in data of observations. The motion of the satellite "is concerned" to the centre of mass of our planet, and its position is determined by a geocentric radius - vector. Therefore northern drift of the centre of mass in the Earth body [2] as though results in reduction of distances from the satellite up to the sea surface in the southern hemisphere and to their reduction in the northern hemisphere. At averaging of measurements over all ocean surface (mainly located in a southern hemisphere where it occupies about 80 % of the areas) there will be an effect of apparent additional increase of the sea level. Therefore this ("apparent") velocity of increase of the sea level accepts the greater value (about 2.4 mm / year) in comparison with coastal determinations of this velocity that is rather close to the data of satellite observations. The additional effect in increase of the sea level is brought by deformation of the ocean bottom. The both mentioned phenomena: the secular drift of the center of mass of the Earth and the secular expansion of southern hemisphere of the Earth have been predicted by author [2], [3] and have obtained confirmations by space geodesy methods. The offered explanation has the extremely - important value for studying a possible role of thermal and climatic factors which can not apply any more for a big component attributed to it in change of the sea level. The account of fictitious component of this velocity results practically in real value of variation of the average sea level about 1.3-1.6 mm / yr, that completely coordinate positions of researchers of ocean by coastal and altimetry (satellite) methods. Moreover, the given work opens a direct opportunity for an explanation of increase of the sea level as result of deformation of the ocean bottom. This deformation is a major factor of change of the average sea level. Water superseded in a southern hemisphere gives the significant contribution to observably value of velocity of sea level rise up to 0.8-1.2 mm / yr [3, 4]. The work fulfilled at financial support of Russian projects of RFBR: N 07-05-00939 and N 06-02-16665. This abstract (without what or changes) has been accepted to EGU GA 2008 Session IS48 "75th Anniversary of the PSML"(Convener: Woodworth P.) but was not included in its program. References. [1] Nerem R.S., Leuliette E.W., Chambers D.P. (2005) An Integrated Study of Sea Level Change Using Altimetry, Gravity, and In Situ Measurements. Geophys. Res. Abstr., Vol. 7, 09831, Sref-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU05-A-09831. [2] Barkin, Yu.V. (1995) About Geocenter Motion Due to Global Changes of Its Dynamical Structure and Tidal Deformations. Vestn. Mosk. Un-ta. Fiz., Astron., Vol. 36, № 5, pp. 99-101 (in Russian). [3] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Mechanisms of increase of mean sea level and solution of "attribution problem". "Geology of seas and oceans: Materials of XVII International scientific conference (scool) on mariner geology". V. IV. M.: GEOS. 2007. p. 21-23. [4] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Global increase of mean sea level and erroneous treatment of a role of thermal factors. "Geology of seas and oceans: Materials of XVII International scientific conference (scool) on mariner geology". V. IV. M.: GEOS. 2007. p. 18-20.

Herbivores and nutrients control grassland plant diversity via light limitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borer, Elizabeth T.; Seabloom, Eric W.; Gruner, Daniel S.; Harpole, W. Stanley; Hillebrand, Helmut; Lind, Eric M.; Alder, Peter B.; Alberti, Juan; Anderson, T. Michael; Bakker, Jonathan D.; Biederman, Lori; Blumenthal, Dana; Brown, Cynthia S.; Brudvig, Lars A.; Buckley, Yvonne M.; Cadotte, Marc; Chu, Cheng-Jin; Cleland, Elsa E.; Crawley, Michael J.; Daleo, Pedro; Damschen, Ellen Ingman; Davies, Kendi F.; DeCrappeo, Nicole M.; Du, Guozhen; Firn, Jennifer; Hautier, Yann; Heckman, Robert W.; Hector, Andy; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Iribarne, Oscar; Klein, Julia A.; Knops, Johannes M.H.; La Pierre, Kimberly J.; Leakey, Andrew D.B.; Li, Wei; MacDougall, Andrew S.; McCulley, Rebecca L.; Melbourne, Brett A.; Mitchell, Charles E.; Moore, Joslin L.; Mortensen, Brent; O'Halloran, Lydia R.; Orrock, John L.; Pascual, Jesús; Prober, Suzanne M.; Pyke, David A.; Risch, Anita C.; Schuetz, Martin; Smith, Melinda D.; Stevens, Carly J.; Sullivan, Lauren L.; Williams, Ryan J.; Wragg, Peter D.; Wright, Justin P.; Yang, Louie H.

2014-01-01

Human alterations to nutrient cycles and herbivore communities are affecting global biodiversity dramatically. Ecological theory predicts these changes should be strongly counteractive: nutrient addition drives plant species loss through intensified competition for light, whereas herbivores prevent competitive exclusion by increasing ground-level light, particularly in productive systems. Here we use experimental data spanning a globally relevant range of conditions to test the hypothesis that herbaceous plant species losses caused by eutrophication may be offset by increased light availability due to herbivory. This experiment, replicated in 40 grasslands on 6 continents, demonstrates that nutrients and herbivores can serve as counteracting forces to control local plant diversity through light limitation, independent of site productivity, soil nitrogen, herbivore type and climate. Nutrient addition consistently reduced local diversity through light limitation, and herbivory rescued diversity at sites where it alleviated light limitation. Thus, species loss from anthropogenic eutrophication can be ameliorated in grasslands where herbivory increases ground-level light.

Changes in Cross-Correlations as an Indicator for Systemic Risk

PubMed Central

Zheng, Zeyu; Podobnik, Boris; Feng, Ling; Li, Baowen

2012-01-01

The 2008–2012 global financial crisis began with the global recession in December 2007 and exacerbated in September 2008, during which the U.S. stock markets lost 20% of value from its October 11 2007 peak. Various studies reported that financial crisis are associated with increase in both cross-correlations among stocks and stock indices and the level of systemic risk. In this paper, we study 10 different Dow Jones economic sector indexes, and applying principle component analysis (PCA) we demonstrate that the rate of increase in principle components with short 12-month time windows can be effectively used as an indicator of systemic risk—the larger the change of PC1, the higher the increase of systemic risk. Clearly, the higher the level of systemic risk, the more likely a financial crisis would occur in the near future. PMID:23185692

Investigating sea level rise due to global warming in the teaching laboratory using Archimedes’ principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Stephen; Pearce, Darren

2015-11-01

A teaching laboratory experiment is described that uses Archimedes’ principle to precisely investigate the effect of global warming on the oceans. A large component of sea level rise is due to the increase in the volume of water due to the decrease in water density with increasing temperature. Water close to 0 °C is placed in a beaker and a glass marble hung from an electronic balance immersed in the water. As the water warms, the weight of the marble increases as the water is less buoyant due to the decrease in density. In the experiment performed in this paper a balance with a precision of 0.1 mg was used with a marble 40.0 cm3 and mass of 99.3 g, yielding water density measurements with an average error of -0.008 ± 0.011%.

Herbivores and nutrients control grassland plant diversity via light limitation.

PubMed

Borer, Elizabeth T; Seabloom, Eric W; Gruner, Daniel S; Harpole, W Stanley; Hillebrand, Helmut; Lind, Eric M; Adler, Peter B; Alberti, Juan; Anderson, T Michael; Bakker, Jonathan D; Biederman, Lori; Blumenthal, Dana; Brown, Cynthia S; Brudvig, Lars A; Buckley, Yvonne M; Cadotte, Marc; Chu, Chengjin; Cleland, Elsa E; Crawley, Michael J; Daleo, Pedro; Damschen, Ellen I; Davies, Kendi F; DeCrappeo, Nicole M; Du, Guozhen; Firn, Jennifer; Hautier, Yann; Heckman, Robert W; Hector, Andy; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Iribarne, Oscar; Klein, Julia A; Knops, Johannes M H; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Leakey, Andrew D B; Li, Wei; MacDougall, Andrew S; McCulley, Rebecca L; Melbourne, Brett A; Mitchell, Charles E; Moore, Joslin L; Mortensen, Brent; O'Halloran, Lydia R; Orrock, John L; Pascual, Jesús; Prober, Suzanne M; Pyke, David A; Risch, Anita C; Schuetz, Martin; Smith, Melinda D; Stevens, Carly J; Sullivan, Lauren L; Williams, Ryan J; Wragg, Peter D; Wright, Justin P; Yang, Louie H

2014-04-24

Human alterations to nutrient cycles and herbivore communities are affecting global biodiversity dramatically. Ecological theory predicts these changes should be strongly counteractive: nutrient addition drives plant species loss through intensified competition for light, whereas herbivores prevent competitive exclusion by increasing ground-level light, particularly in productive systems. Here we use experimental data spanning a globally relevant range of conditions to test the hypothesis that herbaceous plant species losses caused by eutrophication may be offset by increased light availability due to herbivory. This experiment, replicated in 40 grasslands on 6 continents, demonstrates that nutrients and herbivores can serve as counteracting forces to control local plant diversity through light limitation, independent of site productivity, soil nitrogen, herbivore type and climate. Nutrient addition consistently reduced local diversity through light limitation, and herbivory rescued diversity at sites where it alleviated light limitation. Thus, species loss from anthropogenic eutrophication can be ameliorated in grasslands where herbivory increases ground-level light.

Crisis in geosciences in epoch of altimetry measurments and ways of its overcoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkin, Yu. V.

2009-04-01

Scientific results by determination of increase of a global sea level, basing on altimetry measurements, are erroneous. Unfortunately, modern researches of global behavior of ocean in present period have resulted in a lot of paradoxes, to the inexplicable phenomena for today and to contradictions with the classical data of ground (coastal) observations. The basic contradiction consists that values of rate of increase of mean sea level, obtained with the help of satellite methods - methods of altimetry, in 2 - 3 times and more surpass classical determinations of this velocity by coastal methods with the help of measurements at tidal stations. Some authors actually resort to a juggling of the facts in the attempts to explain the found out contradictions (for example, with the help of selection of stations and regions of ocean with the increased values of rates). Thus rather big series of works has lost the scientific importance. The purpose of the report - to show, that conclusions about global increase of a level of the ocean, obtained with application of a method of satellite altimetry are rough - erroneous. "The global sea level rise estimate in the 20th century has been reported at 1.8 mm/yr [Church et al., 2004; Douglas, 2001], which is consistent with the IPCC TAR estimate of 1.5+/-0.5 mm/yr for the 20th Century [Church et al., 2001]. In contrast to the 1.8 mm/yr sea level rise estimate derived from tide gauges, sea level trend estimate from satellite altimetry since 1993 has increased to 3.1+/-0.4 mm/yr [Cazenave and Nerem, 2004]. Although the sea level rise during the TOPEX/POSEIDON period or the last decade is observed to rise almost 50% faster than the average rate over the last Century, visual inspection and fitting a quadratic to the time series confirms there is no significant increase in the rate [Church et al., 2004]." [2], p.7. The statement is rather eloquent. We shall notice only, that the marked difference in rates of MSLR not 50 %, and 100 % and more. I.e. with the help of application of altimetry technique of measurements of velocities has made more than 200 %, and actually if closely to look narrowly at the data on coastal measurements, all is especial in a southern hemisphere, and of 300 %. Is even more tremendous conclusions of similar researches look. There is no necessity to list about the similar conclusions made in numerous publications of last years by known authors on a problem of global change of mean sea level. Among themselves these conclusions will more - less be coordinated, being in too time strictly erroneous. The scientific works basing on the joint analysis of altimetry and coastal methods of measurements, are strictly erroneous. The big list of publications of well-known authors in which attempts of determination of rates of mean sea level increase have been made on the basis of the joint analysis of the data of coastal ground observations and satellite altimetry observations concerns to the list of erroneous works. It is natural, that erroneous results of the specified works in the most serious image have affected researches in the connected sciences about an atmosphere and ocean, climatology, hydrology and others. The crisis situation in the big area of sciences about the Earth is created, satellite achievements in which have actually lost the scientific importance. In the report the explanation of the created crisis situation is given, and the fundamental phenomena in global behavior of ocean obtain an explanation on the basis of geodynamic model developed by the author about trend, the forced swing and wanderings of the core of the Earth relatively to the viscous-elastic mantle [1]. Role of space geodesy. This important discipline of a modern science has serviced bad service for considered scientific problems. The matter is that it could not study and correctly prove conclusions about existence and character of secular drift of the centre of mass of the Earth which here has played the central role - "original Susanin's role" and has got the scientific world community in an impassable wood of mistakes. This fundamental and most important natural phenomenon was carefully camouflaged with numerous and erroneous discussions about a choice of those or other terrestrial systems of coordinates. About existence of secular trend of the center of mass and native phenomenon of the core drift to the North I repeatedly spoke and wrote in reports and publications of last 12-15 years. Another reasons of mistakes. Altimetry data reflect at least two comparable effects: an increase of mean see level of ocean and effects caused by secular drift of the centre of mass and as can not act in one pair with classical observations - they give falsification each other. For a popular explanation of mentioned altimetry-geodesy effect it is possible to present, that an orbit of the satellite which is determined relatively to the centre of mass, at a polar drift of the last to the north, as though rises or falls above a surface of the Earth depending on that - it flies by above a southern hemisphere or northern hemisphere [3] - [5]. An asymmetry in distribution of the ocean areas in relation to the specified hemispheres lead to additional (significant) effect of increase of sea level by averaging of altimetry measurements. Even if the sea level would not vary at all, altimeters would find out its secular global increase. And in relation to ocean in polar part of northern hemisphere they would find out effect of decrease of sea level. The similar situation takes place with known Arctic paradox in decreasing of sea level in polar zones. An attempt of some scientists "to put a horse and a quivering fallow deer to one harness", there were unsuccessful, and all scientific conclusions in sciences about the Earth of last 15 years anyhow basing on altimetry measurements, strictly speaking, are erroneous. "Have eyes, but do not see …". In unenviable position the scientists, trying by the natural reasons to explain a mistake in 100-150 % in value of rate of increase of an average global sea level, certainly, have got. To try to make it is possible, only having closed eyes on reality. A sympathy is caused with similar attempts. And how many they still that though somehow to rescue or even will be to smooth a situation with crisis, but it for the specified authors is unsolved problem. "Have ears, but do not hear …". Unfortunately some authors of the specified erroneous works have occupied a strange position and refuse to discuss even the fact of huge distinction in rates of global increase of a level of ocean on the coastal and satellite data, being limited to excuses of absolutely not scientific character. For example, having heard on EGU 2008 reports of known experts that in extensive regions around of India, Africa and in general in extensive regions of a southern hemisphere the rates of increase of sea level at many stations are given with values of velocities of 0.5 - 1.0 mm/yr, and even negative values, Dr. Don Chambers says in his report, that a mean sea level, not looking on anything, increases with velocity in 3 - 4 mm/yr. At least it is necessary will stop and to think - in what the reason of similar divergences? The strong illustration to told is obtained in work [6]. In this work on the basis of coastal data of observations the velocities of trends of sea levels for all main regions of the Earth (12 regions), including for last 20 years covering "altimetry period" have been determined. "Altimetry velocity" of increase of a global level does not explain any of these values, and on the average surpasses them twice. In application altimetry in sciences about ocean the author has specified the reason of the specified crisis in brief notes [3] - [5]. Suggested mechanism and geodynamic model [1] offered by the author specifies a unique possible output from crisis in geosciences. References [1] Barkin Yu.V. (2002) An explanation of endogenous activity of planets and satellites and its cyclisity, Isvestia sekcii nauk o Zemle Rossiiskoi akademii ectestvennykh nauk, Vyp. 9, М., VINITI, 45-97. In Russian. [2] Kuo Chung-Yen (2006) determination and characterization of 20th century global sea level rise. Report N 471. Geodetic Science and Surveging. Department of geological sciences. The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, 43210. [3] Barkin, Yu.V. (2007) About some mechanisms of the mean global sea level rise. EGU General Assembly (Vienna, Austria, 15-20 April 2007). Geophysical Research Abstracts, Volume 9, 2007, abstract # EGU07-A-07151. [4] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Global increase of mean sea level and erroneous treatment of a role of thermal factors. "Geology of seas and oceans: Materials of XVII International scientific conference (scool) on mariner geology". V. IV. M.: GEOS. 2007. p. 18-20. [5] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Mechanisms of increase of mean sea level and solution of "attribution problem". "Geology of seas and oceans: Materials of XVII International scientific conference (scool) on mariner geology". V. IV. M.: GEOS. 2007. p. 21-23. [6] Jevreeva S., Grinsted A., Moore J.C., Holgate S. (2006) Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records. Journal Geophysical Research, v. 111, C09012, doi: 10.1029/2005JC0032 29, 2006.

Local Reasons to Give Globally: Identity Extension and Global Cooperation.

PubMed

Buchan, Nancy R; Jeong, Sophia Soyoung; Ward, A K

2017-11-14

Recent political events across the world suggest a retrenchment from globalization and a possible increase in parochialism. This inward-looking threat from parochialism occurs just as the global community faces growing challenges that require trans-national cooperation. In this research, we question if strong identification with an in-group necessarily leads to parochialism and ultimately is detrimental to global cooperation. Building on research on global social identification, we explore whether strong local identification can expand in inclusiveness to global identification, and among whom this is likely to happen. The results of our global public goods study - conducted in South Korea and the United States - show that high levels of social identification with a local group can extend to the global collective, particularly for individuals who are also high in concern-for-others. Furthermore, this identification translates into behavior that benefits the global, anonymous group at a cost to oneself. These results shed light on how to avoid the trap of parochialism and instead engender cooperative behavior with the broader global community.

Relative sea-level rise as indicated by gage data along the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Wilson, K.

2004-01-01

Global warming, or the increasing of earth's temperatures, leads to rising sea level as polar ice caps and mountain glaciers melt and ocean water undergoes thermal expansion. Tidal records collected by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE), Mobile District, at Gulfport, Biloxi, and Pascagoula, Mississippi, and at Mobile, Alabama, indicate trends of water-surface elevations increasing with time (relative sea-level rise). The trends indicated by the COE data were compared to relative sea-level trends indicated by the National Ocean Survey gages in the Gulf of Mexico. The average global rate of sea level rise has been suggested to approach about 2 mm/yr (0.007 ft/yr). Some leading scientists have suggested rates of sea level rise that are greater than 2 mm/yr, when accounting for effects of greenhouse gas emissions. As the sea level rises and inundates the coastal plain, structures along the existing coast and structures located in the back bays of estuaries will be even more adversely affected by future flooding. Also, if the land surface adjacent to the water also sinks due to soil compaction and other geologic processes (collectively call subsidence), additional land will be inundated. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Anthropocene Survival of Southern New England’s Salt Marshes

EPA Science Inventory

In southern New England, salt marshes are exceptionally vulnerable to the impacts of accelerated sea level rise. Regional rates of sea level rise have been as much as 50 % greater than the global average over past decades, a more than fourfold increase over late Holocene backgrou...

How much will be economic impact of climate change on water resources? A Meta-Analytic Review of previous literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Water resources is vital in social and economic activities. Total global water use is increasing, mainly due to economic and population growth in developing countries. It has one of risk with high agreement and robust evidence that freshwater-related risks of climate change increase significantly with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. It is difficult to compare the risk with other field risk (e.g. agriculture, forestry, sea level rise) for considering both adaptation and mitigation policy with the level of decision makers and public servants. Economic impacts of climate change on water scarcity has been estimated by economic researchers. We have no certainty at all about integration between hydrological and economical fields on global scale. In this study, we highlight key concerns about conventional estimations of economic impact on water resources through meta-analysis. The economic impact on water resource in same base year using consumer price index is shown with increase in the global mean temperature. We clarified four concerns which are involved in 1) classification of economic mechanism, 2) estimated items of economic impact, 3) difference in estimating equations, and 4) definition of parameters related with economic impact of climate change. This study would be essential to next challenge as transdisciplinary research between hydrologic and economic fields.

Global Terrestrial Patterns of Precipitation Change under a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, R.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial global warming has occurred over the last century, especially since the 1950s. This study analyzes changes in global terrestrial precipitation patterns in period of 1950-2010 in an attempt to identify the influence of climate change on precipitation. The results indicate that there is no significant change globally or across latitude bands; nevertheless significant regional differences in precipitation changes are identified. The lack of a change in precipitation levels, or precipitation balance, at both the global and latitudinal band scales is a result of offsetting by opposing precipitation changes at the regional scales. Clear opposing precipitation change patterns appeared in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude band (NHM). Significant increases in precipitation were distributed throughout the western extent of NHM, including the North America, Europe and west of Central Asia, while decreases were observed over the eastern extent, namely, East Asia. A dynamical adjustment methodology was applied to precipitation data, which could identify the roles of atmospheric circulation (dynamic) and the residual (thermodynamic) forcing played in generating the opposing regional precipitation changes in the NHM. Distinct different changes of dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation were found in different regions. Increased precipitation in North America and southern Europe were caused by thermodynamic precipitation, while the dynamic precipitation presented decreased trend due to the positive sea level pressure trend. However, in northern Europe and west of Central Asia, dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation both contributed to the increased precipitation, but thermodynamic precipitation had larger amplitude. In East Asia, the decreased precipitation was a result of simultaneous decrease in dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation.

Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, G.; Alfieri, L.; Wyser, K.; Mentaschi, L.; Betts, R. A.; Carrao, H.; Spinoni, J.; Vogt, J.; Feyen, L.

2018-04-01

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C to 4.2 month/°C when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5°C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55°N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3°C of warming.

Restoring Coastal Plants to Improve Global Carbon Storage: Reaping What We Sow

PubMed Central

Irving, Andrew D.; Connell, Sean D.; Russell, Bayden D.

2011-01-01

Long-term carbon capture and storage (CCS) is currently considered a viable strategy for mitigating rising levels of atmospheric CO2 and associated impacts of global climate change. Until recently, the significant below-ground CCS capacity of coastal vegetation such as seagrasses, salt marshes, and mangroves has largely gone unrecognized in models of global carbon transfer. However, this reservoir of natural, free, and sustainable carbon storage potential is increasingly jeopardized by alarming trends in coastal habitat loss, totalling 30–50% of global abundance over the last century alone. Human intervention to restore lost habitats is a potentially powerful solution to improve natural rates of global CCS, but data suggest this approach is unlikely to substantially improve long-term CCS unless current restoration efforts are increased to an industrial scale. Failure to do so raises the question of whether resources currently used for expensive and time-consuming restoration projects would be more wisely invested in arresting further habitat loss and encouraging natural recovery. PMID:21479244

50% REDUCTION IN GLOBAL GHG EMISSION BY 2050 AND ITS IMPLICATION

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

To prevent the global temperature increase by two degrees, global greenhouse gas emission in 2050 should be cut by half relative to its 1990 level. This study shows following three things by using multi regions and sectors recursive dynamic type computable general equilibrium model. One is the feasibility of that global emission target. The others are the counter measures and the impact on the macro economy, if that target were feasible. In addition, the scenarios with and without international emission trading are implemented and the effect of the trading is analyzed. As a result, that target can be achieved. The marginal abatement cost is 750/tCO2-eq in 2050. Energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy and carbon capture and storage technologies are the main players as counter measures. If the emission trading is available freely, GDP loss is 4.5% globally in 2050. Otherwise, the loss is increased to 6.1%. The emission trading mechanism is also one of the important measures.

Global performance enhancements via pedestal optimisation on ASDEX Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunne, M. G.; Frassinetti, L.; Beurskens, M. N. A.; Cavedon, M.; Fietz, S.; Fischer, R.; Giannone, L.; Huijsmans, G. T. A.; Kurzan, B.; Laggner, F.; McCarthy, P. J.; McDermott, R. M.; Tardini, G.; Viezzer, E.; Willensdorfer, M.; Wolfrum, E.; The EUROfusion MST1 Team; The ASDEX Upgrade Team

2017-02-01

Results of experimental scans of heating power, plasma shape, and nitrogen content are presented, with a focus on global performance and pedestal alteration. In detailed scans at low triangularity, it is shown that the increase in stored energy due to nitrogen seeding stems from the pedestal. It is also shown that the confinement increase is driven through the temperature pedestal at the three heating power levels studied. In a triangularity scan, an orthogonal effect of shaping and seeding is observed, where increased plasma triangularity increases the pedestal density, while impurity seeding (carbon and nitrogen) increases the pedestal temperature in addition to this effect. Modelling of these effects was also undertaken, with interpretive and predictive models being employed. The interpretive analysis shows a general agreement of the experimental pedestals in separate power, shaping, and seeding scans with peeling-ballooning theory. Predictive analysis was used to isolate the individual effects, showing that the trends of additional heating power and increased triangularity can be recoverd. However, a simple change of the effective charge in the plasma cannot explain the observed levels of confinement improvement in the present models.

Genomic vulnerability to LINE-1 hypomethylation is a potential determinant of the clinicogenetic features of multiple myeloma

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to clarify the role of global hypomethylation of repetitive elements in determining the genetic and clinical features of multiple myeloma (MM). Methods We assessed global methylation levels using four repetitive elements (long interspersed nuclear element-1 (LINE-1), Alu Ya5, Alu Yb8, and Satellite-α) in clinical samples comprising 74 MM samples and 11 benign control samples (7 cases of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and 4 samples of normal plasma cells (NPC)). We also evaluated copy-number alterations using array-based comparative genomic hybridization, and performed methyl-CpG binding domain sequencing (MBD-seq). Results Global levels of the repetitive-element methylation declined with the degree of malignancy of plasma cells (NPC>MGUS>MM), and there was a significant inverse correlation between the degree of genomic loss and the LINE-1 methylation levels. We identified 80 genomic loci as common breakpoints (CBPs) around commonly lost regions, which were significantly associated with increased LINE-1 densities. MBD-seq analysis revealed that average DNA-methylation levels at the CBP loci and relative methylation levels in regions with higher LINE-1 densities also declined during the development of MM. We confirmed that levels of methylation of the 5' untranslated region of respective LINE-1 loci correlated strongly with global LINE-1 methylation levels. Finally, there was a significant association between LINE-1 hypomethylation and poorer overall survival (hazard ratio 2.8, P = 0.015). Conclusion Global hypomethylation of LINE-1 is associated with the progression of and poorer prognosis for MM, possibly due to frequent copy-number loss. PMID:23259664

Global Squeeze: Assessing Climate-Critical Resource Constraints for Coastal Climate Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chase, N. T.; Becker, A.; Schwegler, B.; Fischer, M.

2014-12-01

The projected impacts of climate change in the coastal zone will require local planning and local resources to adapt to increasing risks of social, environmental, and economic consequences from extreme events. This means that, for the first time in human history, aggregated local demands could outpace global supply of certain "climate-critical resources." For example, construction materials such as sand and gravel, steel, and cement may be needed to fortify many coastal locations at roughly the same point in time if decision makers begin to construct new storm barriers or elevate coastal lands. Where might adaptation bottlenecks occur? Can the world produce enough cement to armour the world's seaports as flood risks increase due to sea-level rise and more intense storms? Just how many coastal engineers would multiple such projects require? Understanding such global implications of adaptation requires global datasets—such as bathymetry, coastal topography, local sea-level rise and storm surge projections, and construction resource production capacity—that are currently unavailable at a resolution appropriate for a global-scale analysis. Our research group has identified numerous gaps in available data necessary to make such estimates on both the supply and demand sides of this equation. This presentation examines the emerging need and current availability of these types of datasets and argues for new coordinated efforts to develop and share such data.

From blockchain technology to global health equity: can cryptocurrencies finance universal health coverage?

PubMed

Till, Brian M; Peters, Alexander W; Afshar, Salim; Meara, John

2017-01-01

Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies could remake global health financing and usher in an era global health equity and universal health coverage. We outline and provide examples for at least four important ways in which this potential disruption of traditional global health funding mechanisms could occur: universal access to financing through direct transactions without third parties; novel new multilateral financing mechanisms; increased security and reduced fraud and corruption; and the opportunity for open markets for healthcare data that drive discovery and innovation. We see these issues as a paramount to the delivery of healthcare worldwide and relevant for payers and providers of healthcare at state, national and global levels; for government and non-governmental organisations; and for global aid organisations, including the WHO, International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group.

Public health impact of global heating due to climate change: potential effects on chronic non-communicable diseases.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Butler, Ainslie J; Lucas, Robyn M; Bonita, Ruth

2010-04-01

Several categories of ill health important at the global level are likely to be affected by climate change. To date the focus of this association has been on communicable diseases and injuries. This paper briefly analyzes potential impacts of global climate change on chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We reviewed the limited available evidence of the relationships between climate exposure and chronic and NCDs. We further reviewed likely mechanisms and pathways for climatic influences on chronic disease occurrence and impacts on pre-existing chronic diseases. There are negative impacts of climatic factors and climate change on some physiological functions and on cardio-vascular and kidney diseases. Chronic disease risks are likely to increase with climate change and related increase in air pollution, malnutrition, and extreme weather events. There are substantial research gaps in this arena. The health sector has a major role in facilitating further research and monitoring the health impacts of global climate change. Such work will also contribute to global efforts for the prevention and control of chronic NCDs in our ageing and urbanizing global population.

Modeling a polycentric approach to the problem of climate change. Comment on "Climate change governance, cooperation and self-organization" by Pacheco, Vasconcelos & Santos

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milinski, Manfred

2014-12-01

Climate change is a global problem. Because of unlimited use of fossil energy and resulting greenhouse gas emissions the global temperature is rising causing floods, draughts and storms in all parts of the world with increasing frequency and strength. Dangerous climate change will occur with high probability after the global temperature has passed a certain threshold [1]. To avoid dangerous climate change global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced to a level of 50% or less of the year-2000 emissions by 2050 [2-4]. All people on earth take part in this global target public goods game, "a game that we cannot afford to loose" [5]. Simulating this scenario in a nutshell a collective risk social dilemma game has shown that a small group of subjects can achieve a collective goal by sequential individual contributions but only when the risk of loosing their not invested money is high, e.g. 90% [6]. Cooperation in public goods games usually decreases with increasing group size [7]. Thus, does this mean that the global game will be lost?

Drinking-to-cope motivation and negative mood-drinking contingencies in a daily diary study of college students.

PubMed

O'Hara, Ross E; Armeli, Stephen; Tennen, Howard

2014-07-01

This study examined whether global drinking-to-cope (DTC) motivation moderates negative mood-drinking contingencies and negative mood-motivation contingencies at the daily level of analysis. Data came from a daily diary study of college student drinking (N = 1,636; 53% female; Mage = 19.2 years). Fixed-interval models tested whether global DTC motivation moderated relations between daily negative mood and that evening's drinking and episodic DTC. Time-to-drink models examined whether global DTC motivation moderated the effects of weekly negative mood on the immediacy of drinking and DTC in the weekly cycle. More evening drinking occurred on days characterized by relatively higher anxiety or anger, and students were more likely to report DTC on days when they experienced greater sadness. However, only the daily Anxiety × Global DTC Motivation interaction for number of drinks consumed was consistent with hypotheses. Moreover, students reported drinking, heavy drinking, and DTC earlier in weeks characterized by relatively higher anxiety or anger, but no hypothesized interactions with global DTC motivation were found. RESULTS indicate that negative mood is associated with increased levels of drinking and drinking for coping reasons among college students but that the strength of these relations does not differ by global levels of DTC motivation. These findings raise the possibility that global DTC measures are insufficient for examining within-person DTC processes. Further implications of these results are discussed, including future directions that may determine the circumstances under which, and for whom, DTC occurs.

Global DNA methylation as a possible biomarker for diabetic retinopathy.

PubMed

Maghbooli, Zhila; Hossein-nezhad, Arash; Larijani, Bagher; Amini, Manochehr; Keshtkar, Abbasali

2015-02-01

We evaluated whether global levels of DNA methylation status were associated with retinopathy as well as providing a predictive role of DNA methylation in developing retinopathy in a case-control study of 168 patients with type 2 diabetes. The 5-methylcytosine content was assessed by reversed-phase high-pressure liquid chromatography of peripheral blood leukocytes to determine an individual's global DNA methylation status in the two groups, either with or without retinopathy. The global DNA methylation levels were significantly higher in diabetic retinopathy patients compared with those in non-retinopathy patients (4.90 ± 0.12 vs. 4.22 ± 0.13, respectively; p = 0.001). There was a significant increasing trend in global DNA methylation levels in terms of progressing retinopathy (without retinopathy, 4.22 ± 0.13; non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy, 4.62 ± 0.17; proliferative diabetic retinopathy, 5.07 ± 0.21) (p = 0.006). Additionally, global DNA methylation independent of retinopathy risk factors, which include dyslipidaemia, hypertension, hyperglycaemia and duration of diabetes, was a predictive factor for retinopathy (OR = 1.53, p = 0.015). Global DNA methylation is modulated during or possibly before the primary stage of diabetes. This observation verifies the metabolic memory effect of hyperglycaemia in early stage of an aetiological process that leads to type 2 diabetes and its associated complications. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Globalization and local response to epidemiological overlap in 21st century Ecuador

PubMed Central

Waters, William F

2006-01-01

Background Third World countries are confronted by a complex overlay of two sets of health problems. Traditional maladies, including communicable diseases, malnutrition, and environmental health hazards coexist with emerging health challenges, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, and increasing levels of obesity. Using Ecuador as an example, this paper proposes a conceptual framework for linking epidemiologic overlap to emerging social structures and processes at the national and global levels. Discussion Epidemiologic trends can be seen as part of broader processes related to globalization, but this does not imply that globalization is a monolithic force that inevitably and uniformly affects nations, communities, and households in the same manner. Rather, characteristics and forms of social organization at the subnational level can shape the way that globalization takes place. Thus, globalization has affected Ecuador in specific ways and is, at the same time, intimately related to the form in which the epidemiologic transition has transpired in that country. Summary Ecuador is among neither the poorest nor the wealthiest countries and its situation may illuminate trends in other parts of the world. As in other countries, insertion into the global economy has not taken place in a vacuum; rather, Ecuador has experienced unprecedented social and demographic change in the past several decades, producing profound transformation in its social structure. Examples of local represent alternatives to centralized health systems that do not effectively address the complex overlay of traditional and emerging health problems. PMID:16712722

Researchers focus attention on coastal response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, John; Rodriguez, Antonio; Fletcher, Charles; Fitzgerald, Duncan

The world's population has been steadily migrating toward coastal cities, resulting in severe stress on coastal environments. But the most severe human impact on coastal regions may lie ahead as the rate of global sea-level rise accelerates and the impacts of global warming on coastal climates and oceanographic dynamics increase [Varekamp and Thomas, 1998; Hinrichsen, 1999; Goodwin et al., 2000]. Little is currently being done to forecast the impact of global climate change on coasts during the next century and beyond. Indeed, there are still many politicians, and even some scientists, who doubt that global change is a real threat to society.

Influence of predicted climage change elements on Z. japonica distribution in Washington State

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to have pronounced impacts on estuarine and marine habitats including sea level rise, increased storm intensity, increased air and water temperatures, changes in upwelling dynamics and ocean acidification. All of these elements are likely ...

Response of sunshine bass to ration at elevated culture temperature

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature and ammonia increase dramatically during summer production of sunshine bass. Global temperatures are projected to increase. A factorial experiment investigated the effects of three digestible protein (DP; 33, 40, 47%), two lipid (L; 10, 18 %) and two ration levels (satiation, restricted)...

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sweet, W. V.; Horton, R.; Kopp, R. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Romanou, A.

2017-01-01

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor impacts (also called "nuisance floods") have increased 5- to 10-fold since the 1960s in several U.S. coastal cities. Rates of increase are accelerating in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. Tidal flooding will continue increasing in depth, frequency, and extent this century. Assuming storm characteristics do not change, sea level rise will increase the frequency and extent of extreme flooding associated with coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor'easters. A projected increase in the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic could increase the probability of extreme flooding along most of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast states beyond what would be projected based solely on RSL rise. However, there is low confidence in the projected increase in frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, and the associated flood risk amplification and flood effects could be offset or amplified by such factors as changes in overall storm frequency or tracks.

A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

PubMed

Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

2017-07-11

Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

The southern global change program

Treesearch

Southeastern Forest Experiment Station

1992-01-01

For mote than a decade, scientists around the world have expressed concern over observed changes in the Earth's environment that suggest fum global environmental problems. They have documented increased levels of air pollutants such as ozone nd acid I as well as in- in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Scientists also have noted a 0.5°F to l.0°F rise...

From vegetation zones to climatypes: Effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems

Treesearch

N. M. Tchebakova; G. E. Rehfeldt; E. I. Parfenova

2010-01-01

Evidence for global warming over the past 200 years is overwhelming, based on both direct weather observation and indirect physical and biological indicators such as retreating glaciers and snow/ice cover, increasing sea level, and longer growing seasons (IPCC 2001, 2007). On the background of global warming at a rate of 0.6°C during the twentieth century (IPCC 2001),...

Standardizing the intrinsic brain: Towards robust measurement of inter-individual variation in 1000 functional connectomes

PubMed Central

Yan, Chao-Gan; Craddock, R. Cameron; Zuo, Xi-Nian; Zang, Yu-Feng; Milham, Michael P.

2014-01-01

As researchers increase their efforts to characterize variations in the functional connectome across studies and individuals, concerns about the many sources of nuisance variation present and their impact on resting state fMRI (R-fMRI) measures continue to grow. Although substantial within-site variation can exist, efforts to aggregate data across multiple sites such as the 1000 Functional Connectomes Project (FCP) and International Neuroimaging Data-sharing Initiative (INDI) datasets amplify these concerns. The present work draws upon standardization approaches commonly used in the microarray gene expression literature, and to a lesser extent recent imaging studies, and compares them with respect to their impact on relationships between common R-fMRI measures and nuisance variables (e.g., imaging site, motion), as well as phenotypic variables of interest (age, sex). Standardization approaches differed with regard to whether they were applied post-hoc vs. during pre-processing, and at the individual vs. group level; additionally they varied in whether they addressed additive effects vs. additive + multiplicative effects, and were parametric vs. non-parametric. While all standardization approaches were effective at reducing undesirable relationships with nuisance variables, post-hoc approaches were generally more effective than global signal regression (GSR). Across approaches, correction for additive effects (global mean) appeared to be more important than for multiplicative effects (global SD) for all R-fMRI measures, with the exception of amplitude of low frequency fluctuations (ALFF). Group-level post-hoc standardizations for mean-centering and variance-standardization were found to be advantageous in their ability to avoid the introduction of artifactual relationships with standardization parameters; though results between individual and group-level post-hoc approaches were highly similar overall. While post-hoc standardization procedures drastically increased test–retest (TRT) reliability for ALFF, modest reductions were observed for other measures after post-hoc standardizations—a phenomena likely attributable to the separation of voxel-wise from global differences among subjects (global mean and SD demonstrated moderate TRT reliability for these measures). Finally, the present work calls into question previous observations of increased anatomical specificity for GSR over mean centering, and draws attention to the near equivalence of global and gray matter signal regression. PMID:23631983

Hot spots of crop production changes at 1.5°C and 2°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, C. F.; Deryng, D.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J. W.; Saeed, F.; Folberth, C.; Liu, W.; Wang, X.; Pugh, T.

2017-12-01

Studying changes in global and regional crop production is central for assessing the benefits of limiting global average temperature below 1.5ºC versus 2ºC. Projections of future climatic impacts on crop production are commonly focussed on focussing on mean changes. However, substantial risks are posed by extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts that are of great relevance for imminent policy relevant questions such as price shocks or food security. Preliminary research on the benefits of keeping global average temperature increase below 1.5ºC versus 2ºC above pre-industrial levels has indicated that changes in extreme weather event occurrences will be more pronounced than changes in the mean climate. Here we will present results of crop yield projections for a set of global gridded crop models (GGCMs) for four major staple crops at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. We will assess changes in crop production on the global and regional level, and identify hot spots of change. The unique multi-ensemble setup allows to identify changes in extreme yield losses with multi-year to multi-decadal return periods, and thus elucidate the consequences for global and regional food security.

Simulated climate effects of desert irrigation geoengineering.

PubMed

Cheng, Wei; Moore, John C; Cao, Long; Ji, Duoying; Zhao, Liyun

2017-04-18

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale manipulation of earth's energy balance to counteract global warming, is an attractive proposition for sparsely populated deserts. We use the BNU and UVic Earth system models to simulate the effects of irrigating deserts under the RCP8.5 scenario. Previous studies focused on increasing desert albedo to reduce global warming; in contrast we examine how extending afforestation and ecological projects, that successfully improve regional environments, fair for geoengineering purposes. As expected desert irrigation allows vegetation to grow, with bare soil or grass gradually becoming shrub or tree covered, with increases in terrestrial carbon storage of 90.3 Pg C (UVic-ESCM) - 143.9 Pg C (BNU-ESM). Irrigating global deserts makes the land surface temperature decrease by 0.48 °C and land precipitation increase by 100 mm yr -1 . In the irrigated areas, BNU-ESM simulates significant cooling of up to 4.2 °C owing to the increases in low cloud and latent heat which counteract the warming effect due to decreased surface albedo. Large volumes of water would be required to maintain global desert irrigation, equivalent 10 mm/year of global sea level (BNU-ESM) compensate for evapotranspiration losses. Differences in climate responses between the deserts prompt research into tailored albedo-irrigation schemes.

Simulated climate effects of desert irrigation geoengineering

PubMed Central

Cheng, Wei; Moore, John C.; Cao, Long; Ji, Duoying; Zhao, Liyun

2017-01-01

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale manipulation of earth’s energy balance to counteract global warming, is an attractive proposition for sparsely populated deserts. We use the BNU and UVic Earth system models to simulate the effects of irrigating deserts under the RCP8.5 scenario. Previous studies focused on increasing desert albedo to reduce global warming; in contrast we examine how extending afforestation and ecological projects, that successfully improve regional environments, fair for geoengineering purposes. As expected desert irrigation allows vegetation to grow, with bare soil or grass gradually becoming shrub or tree covered, with increases in terrestrial carbon storage of 90.3 Pg C (UVic-ESCM) – 143.9 Pg C (BNU-ESM). Irrigating global deserts makes the land surface temperature decrease by 0.48 °C and land precipitation increase by 100 mm yr−1. In the irrigated areas, BNU-ESM simulates significant cooling of up to 4.2 °C owing to the increases in low cloud and latent heat which counteract the warming effect due to decreased surface albedo. Large volumes of water would be required to maintain global desert irrigation, equivalent 10 mm/year of global sea level (BNU-ESM) compensate for evapotranspiration losses. Differences in climate responses between the deserts prompt research into tailored albedo-irrigation schemes. PMID:28418005

Fate of Water Pumped from Underground and Contributions to Sea Level Rise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wada, Yoshihide; Lo, Min-Hui; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.; Wu, Ren-Jie; Tseng, Yu-Heng

2016-01-01

The contributions from terrestrial water sources to sea-level rise, other than ice caps and glaciers, are highly uncertain and heavily debated1-5. Recent assessments indicate that groundwater depletion (GWD) may become the most important positive terrestrial contribution6-10 over the next 50 years, probably equal in magnitude to the current contributions from glaciers and ice caps6. However, the existing estimates assume that nearly 100% of groundwater extracted eventually ends up in the oceans. Owing to limited knowledge of the pathways and mechanisms governing the ultimate fate of pumped groundwater, the relative fraction of global GWD that contributes to sea-level rise remains unknown. Here, using a coupled climate-hydrological model11,12 simulation, we show that only 80% of GWDends up in the ocean. An increase in runo to the ocean accounts for roughly two-thirds, whereas the remainder results from the enhanced net flux of precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean, due to increased atmospheric vapour transport from the land to the ocean. The contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise amounted to 0.02 (+/- 0.004)mm yr(sup-1) in 1900 and increased to 0.27 (+/- 0.04)mm yr(sup-1) in 2000. This indicates that existing studies have substantially overestimated the contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise by a cumulative amount of at least 10 mm during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century. With other terrestrial water contributions included, we estimate the net terrestrial water contribution during the period 1993-2010 to be +0.12 +/-0.04)mm yr(sup-1), suggesting that the net terrestrialwater contribution reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report report is probably overestimated by a factor of three.

Fate of water pumped from underground and contributions to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Yoshihide; Lo, Min-Hui; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Reager, John T.; Famiglietti, James S.; Wu, Ren-Jie; Tseng, Yu-Heng

2016-08-01

The contributions from terrestrial water sources to sea-level rise, other than ice caps and glaciers, are highly uncertain and heavily debated. Recent assessments indicate that groundwater depletion (GWD) may become the most important positive terrestrial contribution over the next 50 years, probably equal in magnitude to the current contributions from glaciers and ice caps. However, the existing estimates assume that nearly 100% of groundwater extracted eventually ends up in the oceans. Owing to limited knowledge of the pathways and mechanisms governing the ultimate fate of pumped groundwater, the relative fraction of global GWD that contributes to sea-level rise remains unknown. Here, using a coupled climate-hydrological model simulation, we show that only 80% of GWD ends up in the ocean. An increase in runoff to the ocean accounts for roughly two-thirds, whereas the remainder results from the enhanced net flux of precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean, due to increased atmospheric vapour transport from the land to the ocean. The contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise amounted to 0.02 (+/-0.004) mm yr-1 in 1900 and increased to 0.27 (+/-0.04) mm yr-1 in 2000. This indicates that existing studies have substantially overestimated the contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise by a cumulative amount of at least 10 mm during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century. With other terrestrial water contributions included, we estimate the net terrestrial water contribution during the period 1993-2010 to be +0.12 (+/-0.04) mm yr-1, suggesting that the net terrestrial water contribution reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report report is probably overestimated by a factor of three.

Scientific Challenges in Sustainable Energy Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Nathan

2006-03-01

This presentation will describe and evaluate the challenges, both technical, political, and economic, involved with widespread adoption of renewable energy technologies. First, we estimate the available fossil fuel resources and reserves based on data from the World Energy Assessment and World Energy Council. In conjunction with the current and projected global primary power production rates, we then estimate the remaining years of supply of oil, gas, and coal for use in primary power production. We then compare the price per unit of energy of these sources to those of renewable energy technologies (wind, solar thermal, solar electric, biomass, hydroelectric, and geothermal) to evaluate the degree to which supply/demand forces stimulate a transition to renewable energy technologies in the next 20-50 years. Secondly, we evaluate the greenhouse gas buildup limitations on carbon-based power consumption as an unpriced externality to fossil-fuel consumption, considering global population growth, increased global gross domestic product, and increased energy efficiency per unit of globally averaged GDP, as produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A greenhouse gas constraint on total carbon emissions, in conjunction with global population growth, is projected to drive the demand for carbon-free power well beyond that produced by conventional supply/demand pricing tradeoffs, at potentially daunting levels relative to current renewable energy demand levels. Thirdly, we evaluate the level and timescale of R&D investment that is needed to produce the required quantity of carbon-free power by the 2050 timeframe, to support the expected global energy demand for carbon-free power. Fourth, we evaluate the energy potential of various renewable energy resources to ascertain which resources are adequately available globally to support the projected global carbon-free energy demand requirements. Fifth, we evaluate the challenges to the chemical sciences to enable the cost-effective production of carbon-free power on the needed scale by the 2050 timeframe. Finally, we discuss the effects of a change in primary power technology on the energy supply infrastructure and discuss the impact of such a change on the modes of energy consumption by the energy consumer and additional demands on the chemical sciences to support such a transition in energy supply.

The complex reality of sea-level rise in an atoll nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.

2012-12-01

Sea-level rise famously poses an existential threat to island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives. Yet as the global mean sea-level rises, the response of any one location at any given time will depend on the natural variability in regional sea-level and other impact of local human activities on coastal processes. As with climate warming, the state of an individual shoreline or the extent of flooding on a given day is not proof of a sea-level trend, nor is a global sea-level trend a good predictor of individual flooding or erosion events. Failure to consider the effect of natural variability and local human activity on coastal processes often leads to misattribution of flooding events and even some long-term shoreline changes to global sea level rise. Moreover, unverified attribution of individual events or changes to specific islets to sea level rise can inflame or invite scepticism of the strong scientific evidence for an accelerating increase in the global sea level due to the impacts of human activity on the climate system. This is particularly important in developing nations like Kiribati, which are depending on international financial support to adapt to rising sea levels. In this presentation, I use gauge data and examples from seven years of field work in Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of Kiribati, to examine the complexity of local sea level and shoreline change in one of the world's most vulnerable countries. First, I discuss how the combination of El Nino-driven variability in sea-level and the astronomical tidal cycle leads to flooding and erosion events which can be mistaken for evidence of sea-level rise. Second, I show that human modification to shorelines has redirected sediment supply, leading, in some cases, to expansion of islets despite rising sea levels. Taken together, the analysis demonstrates the challenge of attributing particular coastal events to global mean sea-level rise and the impact on decision-making. The presentation concludes with a discussion of the implications for attribution research, discourse about sea-level rise, and adaptation planning.

Global Projection of Coastal Exposure Associated with Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatari, R.; Miyazaki, C.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise due to global warming becomes a great matter of concern for global coastal area. Additionally, it has reported in fifth report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that deglaciation of Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet would occur rapidly and enhance sea-level rise if temperature passes certain "Tipping point". In terms of projecting damage induced by sea-level rise globally, some previous studies focused on duration until mainly 2100. Furthermore long-term estimations on centuries to millennial climatic response of the ice sheets which are supposed to be triggered within this or next century would be also important to think about future climate and lifestyle in coastal . In this study, I estimated the long term sea-level which take into account the tipping points of Greenland ice sheet (1.4℃) as sum of 4 factors (thermal expansion, glacier and ice cap, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet). The sea-level follows 4 representative concentration pathways up to 3000 obtained through literature reviewing since there were limited available sea-level projections up to 3000. I also estimated a number of affected population lives in coastal area up to 3000 with using the estimated sea-level. The cost for damage, adaptation and mitigation would be also discussed. These estimations would be useful when decision-makers propose policies for construction of dikes and proposing mitigation plans for sustainable future. The result indicates there would be large and relatively rapid increases in both sea-level rise and coastal exposure if global mean temperature passes the tipping point of Greenland ice sheet. However the tipping points, melting rate and timescale of response are highly uncertain and still discussed among experts. Thus more precise and credible information is required for further accurate estimation of long-term sea-level rise and population exposure in the future.

Increasing homogeneity in global food supplies and the implications for food security

PubMed Central

Khoury, Colin K.; Bjorkman, Anne D.; Dempewolf, Hannes; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Guarino, Luigi; Jarvis, Andy; Rieseberg, Loren H.; Struik, Paul C.

2014-01-01

The narrowing of diversity in crop species contributing to the world’s food supplies has been considered a potential threat to food security. However, changes in this diversity have not been quantified globally. We assess trends over the past 50 y in the richness, abundance, and composition of crop species in national food supplies worldwide. Over this period, national per capita food supplies expanded in total quantities of food calories, protein, fat, and weight, with increased proportions of those quantities sourcing from energy-dense foods. At the same time the number of measured crop commodities contributing to national food supplies increased, the relative contribution of these commodities within these supplies became more even, and the dominance of the most significant commodities decreased. As a consequence, national food supplies worldwide became more similar in composition, correlated particularly with an increased supply of a number of globally important cereal and oil crops, and a decline of other cereal, oil, and starchy root species. The increase in homogeneity worldwide portends the establishment of a global standard food supply, which is relatively species-rich in regard to measured crops at the national level, but species-poor globally. These changes in food supplies heighten interdependence among countries in regard to availability and access to these food sources and the genetic resources supporting their production, and give further urgency to nutrition development priorities aimed at bolstering food security. PMID:24591623

Laryngeal cancer: Global socioeconomic trends in disease burden and smoking habits.

PubMed

Ramsey, Tam; Guo, Eric; Svider, Peter F; Lin, Hosheng; Syeda, Sara; Raza, S Naweed; Fribley, Andrew M

2018-03-06

To characterize health burden and determine the associated level of equality of laryngeal carcinoma (LC) burden at a global level. One hundred eighty-four countries were organized by socioeconomic status using Human Development Index (HDI) categorizations provided by the United Nations Development Program. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), obtained from The Global Health Data Exchange, were calculated and compared between each HDI category for the period from 1990 to 2015. Equality of LC burden was then evaluated with concentration indices. Global LC burden, as measured by age-standardized DALYs, has improved significantly over the 25-year period studied. This burden has declined for very high, high, and medium HDI countries, whereas it has remained unchanged for low HDI countries. The majority of LC global burden was found in high socioeconomic countries before 2010 and has shifted toward low socioeconomic countries, as indicated by concentration indices. Over the last 25 years, Central and Eastern Europe continue to have the largest disease burden in the world. This is the first analysis that we are aware of investigating health disparities of LC at a global level. The global burden of the disease has declined, which is a trend corresponding with significantly reduced smoking behaviors in developed countries. Although the global inequality gap decreased between 2010 and 2015, there remain reasons for concern. Smoking continues to trend upward in low socioeconomic countries, which could increase LC burden in low socioeconomic countries in the near future. A new global initiative directed toward low socioeconomic countries may yield dividends in preventing subsequent disparities in the LC burden. 4. Laryngoscope, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE PAGES

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2017-06-05

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Diffuse radiation increases global ecosystem-level water-use efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moffat, A. M.; Reichstein, M.; Cescatti, A.; Knohl, A.; Zaehle, S.

2012-12-01

Current environmental changes lead not only to rising atmospheric CO2 levels and air temperature but also to changes in air pollution and thus the light quality of the solar radiation reaching the land-surface. While rising CO2 levels are thought to enhance photosynthesis and closure of stomata, thus leading to relative water savings, the effect of diffuse radiation on transpiration by plants is less clear. It has been speculated that the stimulation of photosynthesis by increased levels of diffuse light may be counteracted by higher transpiration and consequently water depletion and drought stress. Ultimately, in water co-limited systems, the overall effect of diffuse radiation will depend on the sensitivity of canopy transpiration versus photosynthesis to diffuse light, i.e. whether water-use efficiency changes with relative levels of diffuse light. Our study shows that water-use efficiency increases significantly with higher fractions of diffuse light. It uses the ecosystem-atmosphere gas-exchange observations obtained with the eddy covariance method at 29 flux tower sites. In contrast to previous global studies, the analysis is based directly on measurements of diffuse radiation. Its effect on water-use efficiency was derived by analyzing the multivariate response of carbon and water fluxes to radiation and air humidity using a purely empirical approach based on artificial neural networks. We infer that per unit change of diffuse fraction the water-use efficiency increases up to 40% depending on diffuse fraction levels and ecosystem type. Hence, in regions with increasing diffuse radiation positive effects on primary production are expected even under conditions where water is co-limiting productivity.

China's air pollution reduction efforts may result in an increase in surface ozone levels in highly polluted areas.

PubMed

Anger, Annela; Dessens, Olivier; Xi, Fengming; Barker, Terry; Wu, Rui

2016-03-01

China, as a fast growing fossil-fuel-based economy, experiences increasing levels of air pollution. To tackle air pollution, China has taken the first steps by setting emission-reduction targets for nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the 11th and 12th Five Year Plans. This paper uses two models-the Energy-Environment-Economy Model at the Global level (E3MG) and the global Chemistry Transport Model pTOMCAT-to test the effects of these policies. If the policy targets are met, then the maximum values of 32 % and 45 % reductions below 'business as usual' in the monthly mean NO x and SO2 concentrations, respectively, will be achieved in 2015. However, a decrease in NO x concentrations in some highly polluted areas of East, North-East and South-East China can lead to up to a 10% increase in the monthly mean concentrations in surface ozone in 2015. Our study demonstrates an urgent need for the more detailed analysis of the impacts and designs of air pollution reduction guidelines for China.

How Sustainable is Groundwater Abstraction? A Global Assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I.; Van Beek, R.; Gleeson, T. P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F.

2016-12-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible freshwater resource and is of critical importance for irrigation, and thus for global food security. For regions with high demands, groundwater abstractions often exceed recharge and persistent groundwater depletion occurs. The direct effects of depletion are falling groundwater levels, increased pumping costs, land subsidence, and reduced baseflows to rivers. Water demands are expected to increase further due to growing population, economic development, and climate change, posing the urgent question how sustainable current water abstractions are worldwide and where and when these abstractions approach conceivable economic and environmental limits. In this study we estimated trends over 1960-2100 in groundwater levels, resulting from changes in demand and climate. We explored the limits of groundwater abstraction by predicting where and when groundwater levels drop that deep that groundwater gets unattainable for abstraction (economic limit) or, that groundwater baseflows to rivers drop below environmental requirements (environmental limit). We used a global hydrological model coupled to a groundwater model, meaning lateral groundwater flows, river infiltration and drainage, and infiltration and capillary-rise are simulated dynamically. Historical data and projections are used to prescribe water demands and climate forcing to the model. For the near future we used RCP8.5 and applied globally driest, average, and wettest GCM to test climate sensitivity. Results show that in general environmental limits are reached before economic limits, for example starting as early as the 1970s compared to the 1980s for economic limits in the upper Ganges basin. Economic limits are mostly related to regions with depletion, while environmental limits are reached also in regions were groundwater and surface water withdrawals are significant but depletion is not taking place (yet), for example in Spain and Portugal. In the near future, more regions will reach their limits, current depletion regions will expand and new regions experiencing depletion will develop. Regionally the increasing level of groundwater stress, economically and environmentally, will be an important factor in future economic development and could lead to socio-economic tension.

How Sustainable is Groundwater Abstraction? A Global Assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, I.; Van Beek, R.; Gleeson, T. P.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F.

2017-12-01

Groundwater is the world's largest accessible freshwater resource and is of critical importance for irrigation, and thus for global food security. For regions with high demands, groundwater abstractions often exceed recharge and persistent groundwater depletion occurs. The direct effects of depletion are falling groundwater levels, increased pumping costs, land subsidence, and reduced baseflows to rivers. Water demands are expected to increase further due to growing population, economic development, and climate change, posing the urgent question how sustainable current water abstractions are worldwide and where and when these abstractions approach conceivable economic and environmental limits. In this study we estimated trends over 1960-2100 in groundwater levels, resulting from changes in demand and climate. We explored the limits of groundwater abstraction by predicting where and when groundwater levels drop that deep that groundwater gets unattainable for abstraction (economic limit) or, that groundwater baseflows to rivers drop below environmental requirements (environmental limit). We used a global hydrological model coupled to a groundwater model, meaning lateral groundwater flows, river infiltration and drainage, and infiltration and capillary-rise are simulated dynamically. Historical data and projections are used to prescribe water demands and climate forcing to the model. For the near future we used RCP8.5 and applied globally driest, average, and wettest GCM to test climate sensitivity. Results show that in general environmental limits are reached before economic limits, for example starting as early as the 1970s compared to the 1980s for economic limits in the upper Ganges basin. Economic limits are mostly related to regions with depletion, while environmental limits are reached also in regions were groundwater and surface water withdrawals are significant but depletion is not taking place (yet), for example in Spain and Portugal. In the near future, more regions will reach their limits, current depletion regions will expand and new regions experiencing depletion will develop. Regionally the increasing level of groundwater stress, economically and environmentally, will be an important factor in future economic development and could lead to socio-economic tension.

Global change impacts on mangrove ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKee, Karen L.

2004-01-01

Mangroves are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal forests are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services. Major local threats to mangrove ecosystems worldwide include clearcutting and trimming of forests for urban, agricultural, or industrial expansion; hydrological alterations; toxic chemical spills; and eutrophication. In many countries with mangroves, much of the human population resides in the coastal zone, and their activities often negatively impact the integrity of mangrove forests. In addition, eutrophication, which is the process whereby nutrients build up to higher than normal levels in a natural system, is possibly one of the most serious threats to mangroves and associated ecosystems such as coral reefs. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand global impacts on these significant ecosystems.Changes in climate and other factors may also affect mangroves, but in complex ways. Global warming may promote expansion of mangrove forests to higher latitudes and accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice or steric expansion of oceans. Changes in sea level would alter flooding patterns and the structure and areal extent of mangroves. Climate change may also alter rainfall patterns, which would in turn change local salinity regimes and competitive interactions of mangroves with other wetland species. Increases in frequency or intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes in combination with sea-level rise may alter erosion and sedimentation rates in mangrove forests. Another global change factor that may directly affect mangrove growth is increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), caused by burning of fossil fuels and other factors. Elevated CO2 concentration may increase mangrove growth by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use efficiency, but the consequences of this growth enhancement for the ecosystem are unknown.

Alpha, beta, or gamma: where does all the diversity go?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1988-01-01

Global taxonomic richness is affected by variation in three components: within-community, or alpha, diversity, between-community, or beta, diversity; and between-region, or gamma, diversity. A data set consisting of 505 faunal lists distributed among 40 stratigraphic intervals and six environmental zones was used to investigate how variation of alpha and beta diversity influenced global diversity through the Paleozoic, and especially during the Ordovician radiations. As first shown by Bambach (1977), alpha diversity increased by 50 to 70 percent in offshore marine environments during the Ordovician and then remained essentially constant of the remainder of the Paleozoic. The increase is insufficient, however, to account for the 300 percent rise observed in global generic diversity. It is shown that beta diversity among level, soft-bottom communities also increased significantly during the early Paleozoic. This change is related to enhanced habitat selection, and presumably increased overall specialization, among diversifying taxa during the Ordovician radiations. Combined with alpha diversity, the measured change in beta diversity still accounts for only about half of the increase in global diversity. Other sources of increase are probably not related to variation in gamma diversity but rather to appearance and/or expansion of organic reefs, hardground communities, bryozoan thickets, and crinoid gardens during the Ordovician.

The Effects of Global Warming on Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Northeast America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francis, F.

2013-12-01

The objective of this paper is to discuss the analysis of results in temperature and precipitation (rainfall) data and how they are affected by the theory of global warming in Northeast America. The topic was chosen because it will show the trends in temperature and precipitation and their relations to global warming. Data was collected from The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The data range from years of 1973 to 2012. We were able to calculate the yearly and monthly regress to estimate the relationship of variables found in the individual sources. With the use of specially designed software, analysis and manual calculations we are able to give a visualization of these trends in precipitation and temperature and to question if these trends are due to the theory of global warming. With the Calculation of the trends in slope we were able to interpret the changes in minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. Precipitation had a 9.5 % increase over the past forty years, while maximum temperature increased 1.9 %, a greater increase is seen in minimum temperature of 3.3 % was calculated over the years. The trends in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature is statistically significant at a 95% level.

A Global Registry for Scientific Collections: Striking a Balance Between Disciplinary Detail and Interdisciplinary Discoverability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, E.; Schindel, D. E.

2014-12-01

The Global Registry of Scientific Collections (GRSciColl) is an online information resource developed to gather and disseminate basic information on scientific collections. Building on initiatives started for biological collections, GRSciColl expands this framework to encompass all scientific disciplines including earth and space sciences, anthropology, archaeology, biomedicine, and applied fields such as agriculture and technology. The goals of this registry are to (1) provide a single source of synoptic information about the repositories, their component collections, access and use policies, and staff contact information; and (2) facilitate the assignment of identifiers for repositories and their collections that are globally unique across all disciplines. As digitization efforts continue, the importance of globally unique identifiers is paramount to ensuring interoperability across datasets. Search capabilities and web services will significantly increase the web visibility and accessibility of these collections. Institutional records include categorization by governance (e.g., national, state or local governmental, private non-profit) and by scientific discipline (e.g., earth science, biomedical, agricultural). Collection-level metadata categorize the types of contained specimens/samples and modes of preservation. In selecting the level of granularity for these categories, designers sought a compromise that would capture enough information to be useful in searches and inquiries and would complement the detailed archives in specimen-level databases such (which are increasingly digital) hosted by discipline-specific groups (e.g. SESAR) or the repositories themselves (e.g. KE EMu).

Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in south Australia.

PubMed

Reyenga, P J; Howden, S M; Meinke, H; Hall, W B

2001-09-01

Crop production is likely to change in the future as a result of global changes in CO2 levels in the atmosphere and climate. APSIM, a cropping system model, was used to investigate the potential impact of these changes on the distribution of cropping along an environmental transect in south Australia. The effects of several global change scenarios were studied, including: (1) historical climate and CO2 levels, (2) historic climate with elevated CO2 (700 ppm), (3) warmer climate (+2.4 degrees C) +700 ppm CO2, (4) drier climate (-15% summer, -20% winter rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2, (5) wetter climate (+10% summer rainfall) +2.4 degrees C +700 ppm CO2 and (6) most likely climate changes (+1.8 degrees C, -8% annual rainfall) +700 ppm CO2. Based on an analysis of the current cropping boundary, a criterion of 1 t/ha was used to assess potential changes in the boundary under global change. Under most scenarios, the cropping boundary moved northwards with a further 240,000 ha potentially being available for cropping. The exception was the reduced rainfall scenario (4), which resulted in a small retreat of cropping from its current extent. However, the impact of this scenario may only be small (in the order of 10,000-20,000 ha reduction in cropping area). Increases in CO2 levels over the current climate record have resulted in small but significant increases in simulated yields. Model limitations are discussed.

The effects of reputational and social knowledge on cooperation

PubMed Central

Gallo, Edoardo; Yan, Chang

2015-01-01

The emergence and sustenance of cooperative behavior is fundamental for a society to thrive. Recent experimental studies have shown that cooperation increases in dynamic networks in which subjects can choose their partners. However, these studies did not vary reputational knowledge, or what subjects know about other’s past actions, which has long been recognized as an important factor in supporting cooperation. They also did not give subjects access to global social knowledge, or information on who is connected to whom in the group. As a result, it remained unknown how reputational and social knowledge foster cooperative behavior in dynamic networks both independently and by complementing each other. In an experimental setting, we show that global reputational knowledge is crucial to sustaining a high level of cooperation and welfare. Cooperation is associated with the emergence of dense and clustered networks with highly cooperative hubs. Global social knowledge has no effect on the aggregate level of cooperation. A community analysis shows that the addition of global social knowledge to global reputational knowledge affects the distribution of cooperative activity: cooperators form a separate community that achieves a higher cooperation level than the community of defectors. Members of the community of cooperators achieve a higher payoff from interactions within the community than members of the less cooperative community. PMID:25775544

Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

2017-11-01

Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

Different alterations in brain functional networks according to direct and indirect topological connections in patients with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Park, Chang-Hyun; Lee, Seungyup; Kim, Taewon; Won, Wang Yeon; Lee, Kyoung-Uk

2017-10-01

Schizophrenia displays connectivity deficits in the brain, but the literature has shown inconsistent findings about alterations in global efficiency of brain functional networks. We supposed that such inconsistency at the whole brain level may be due to a mixture of different portions of global efficiency at sub-brain levels. Accordingly, we considered measuring portions of global efficiency in two aspects: spatial portions by considering sub-brain networks and topological portions by considering contributions to global efficiency according to direct and indirect topological connections. We proposed adjacency and indirect adjacency as new network parameters attributable to direct and indirect topological connections, respectively, and applied them to graph-theoretical analysis of brain functional networks constructed from resting state fMRI data of 22 patients with schizophrenia and 22 healthy controls. Group differences in the network parameters were observed not for whole brain and hemispheric networks, but for regional networks. Alterations in adjacency and indirect adjacency were in opposite directions, such that adjacency increased, but indirect adjacency decreased in patients with schizophrenia. Furthermore, over connections in frontal and parietal regions, increased adjacency was associated with more severe negative symptoms, while decreased adjacency was associated with more severe positive symptoms of schizophrenia. This finding indicates that connectivity deficits associated with positive and negative symptoms of schizophrenia may involve topologically different paths in the brain. In patients with schizophrenia, although changes in global efficiency may not be clearly shown, different alterations in brain functional networks according to direct and indirect topological connections could be revealed at the regional level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

PubMed Central

MIMURA, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

Network structure impacts global commodity trade growth and resilience.

PubMed

Kharrazi, Ali; Rovenskaya, Elena; Fath, Brian D

2017-01-01

Global commodity trade networks are critical to our collective sustainable development. Their increasing interconnectedness pose two practical questions: (i) Do the current network configurations support their further growth? (ii) How resilient are these networks to economic shocks? We analyze the data of global commodity trade flows from 1996 to 2012 to evaluate the relationship between structural properties of the global commodity trade networks and (a) their dynamic growth, as well as (b) the resilience of their growth with respect to the 2009 global economic shock. Specifically, we explore the role of network efficiency and redundancy using the information theory-based network flow analysis. We find that, while network efficiency is positively correlated with growth, highly efficient systems appear to be less resilient, losing more and gaining less growth following an economic shock. While all examined networks are rather redundant, we find that network redundancy does not hinder their growth. Moreover, systems exhibiting higher levels of redundancy lose less and gain more growth following an economic shock. We suggest that a strategy to support making global trade networks more efficient via, e.g., preferential trade agreements and higher specialization, can promote their further growth; while a strategy to increase the global trade networks' redundancy via e.g., more abundant free-trade agreements, can improve their resilience to global economic shocks.

Network structure impacts global commodity trade growth and resilience

PubMed Central

Rovenskaya, Elena; Fath, Brian D.

2017-01-01

Global commodity trade networks are critical to our collective sustainable development. Their increasing interconnectedness pose two practical questions: (i) Do the current network configurations support their further growth? (ii) How resilient are these networks to economic shocks? We analyze the data of global commodity trade flows from 1996 to 2012 to evaluate the relationship between structural properties of the global commodity trade networks and (a) their dynamic growth, as well as (b) the resilience of their growth with respect to the 2009 global economic shock. Specifically, we explore the role of network efficiency and redundancy using the information theory-based network flow analysis. We find that, while network efficiency is positively correlated with growth, highly efficient systems appear to be less resilient, losing more and gaining less growth following an economic shock. While all examined networks are rather redundant, we find that network redundancy does not hinder their growth. Moreover, systems exhibiting higher levels of redundancy lose less and gain more growth following an economic shock. We suggest that a strategy to support making global trade networks more efficient via, e.g., preferential trade agreements and higher specialization, can promote their further growth; while a strategy to increase the global trade networks’ redundancy via e.g., more abundant free-trade agreements, can improve their resilience to global economic shocks. PMID:28207790

The impact of future sea-level rise on the global tides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pickering, M. D.; Horsburgh, K. J.; Blundell, J. R.; Hirschi, J. J.-M.; Nicholls, R. J.; Verlaan, M.; Wells, N. C.

2017-06-01

Tides are a key component in coastal extreme water levels. Possible changes in the tides caused by mean sea-level rise (SLR) are therefore of importance in the analysis of coastal flooding, as well as many other applications. We investigate the effect of future SLR on the tides globally using a fully global forward tidal model: OTISmpi. Statistical comparisons of the modelled and observed tidal solutions demonstrate the skill of the refined model setup with no reliance on data assimilation. We simulate the response of the four primary tidal constituents to various SLR scenarios. Particular attention is paid to future changes at the largest 136 coastal cities, where changes in water level would have the greatest impact. Spatially uniform SLR scenarios ranging from 0.5 to 10 m with fixed coastlines show that the tidal amplitudes in shelf seas globally respond strongly to SLR with spatially coherent areas of increase and decrease. Changes in the M2 and S2 constituents occur globally in most shelf seas, whereas changes in K1 and O1 are confined to Asian shelves. With higher SLR tidal changes are often not proportional to the SLR imposed and larger portions of mean high water (MHW) changes are above proportional. Changes in MHW exceed ±10% of the SLR at 10% of coastal cities. SLR scenarios allowing for coastal recession tend increasingly to result in a reduction in tidal range. The fact that the fixed and recession shoreline scenarios result mainly in changes of opposing sign is explained by the effect of the perturbations on the natural period of oscillation of the basin. Our results suggest that coastal management strategies could influence the sign of the tidal amplitude change. The effect of a spatially varying SLR, in this case fingerprints of the initial elastic response to ice mass loss, modestly alters the tidal response with the largest differences at high latitudes.

Anaesthesia and global health initiatives for children in a low-resource environment.

PubMed

Hodges, Sarah C

2016-06-01

As the United Nations moves from Millennium Development Goals to Sustainable Development Goals, we find ourselves with the opportunity to influence the priority of global health initiatives. Previously, the global health community has failed to recognise the importance of access to safe, affordable surgery and developing the necessary specialities that support it as most of the funding focus had been on primary healthcare and infectious diseases. Now the WHO is publishing guidelines to safe surgery and the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery has been launched. However, this is only the start; anaesthesia remains a forgotten speciality within the world of public and global health and there are still challenges in escalating surgery in low and middle-income countries to an acceptable level that is affordable and timely. Although there is increased world interest in safe surgery and anaesthesia this has not yet been translated into a mandate that will compel countries to invest in improving levels of infrastructure, accessibility, manpower, and safety. A general anaesthetic remains a dangerous event in a child's life in resource-limited countries.

Socioeconomic inequalities in smoking in The Netherlands before and during the Global Financial Crisis: a repeated cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Benson, Fiona E; Kuipers, Mirte A G; Nierkens, Vera; Bruggink, Jan-Willem; Stronks, Karien; Kunst, Anton E

2015-05-06

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) increased levels of financial strain, especially in those of low socioeconomic status (SES). Financial strain can affect smoking behaviour. This study examines socioeconomic inequalities in current smoking and smoking cessation in The Netherlands before and during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Participants were 66,960 Dutch adults (≥ 18 years) who took part in the annual national Health Survey (2004-2011). Period was dichotomised: 'pre-' and 'during-GFC'. SES measures used were income, education and neighbourhood deprivation. Outcomes were current smoking rates (smokers/total population) and smoking cessation ratios (former smokers/ever smokers). Multilevel logistic regression models controlled for individual characteristics and tested for interaction between period and SES. In both periods, high SES respondents (in all indicators) had lower current smoking levels and higher cessation ratios than those of middle or low SES. Inequalities in current smoking increased significantly in poorly educated adults of 45-64 years of age (Odds Ratio (OR) low educational level compared with high: 2.00[1.79-2.23] compared to pre-GFC 1.67[1.50-1.86], p for interaction = 0.02). Smoking cessation inequalities by income in 18-30 year olds increased with borderline significance during the GFC (OR low income compared to high income: 0.73[0.58-0.91]) compared to pre-GFC (OR: 0.98[0.80-1.20]), p for interaction = 0.051). Overall, socioeconomic inequalities in current smoking and smoking cessation were unchanged during the GFC. However, current smoking inequalities by education, and smoking cessation inequalities by income, increased in specific age groups. Increased financial strain caused by the crisis may disproportionately affect smoking behaviour in some disadvantaged groups.

Identification of Transportation Infrastructure at Risk Due To Sea-Level Rise and Subsidence of Land In Coastal Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewari, S.; Palmer, W.; Manning, F.

2017-12-01

Climate change can affect coastal areas in a variety of ways. Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise, changes in the frequency/intensity of storms, increase in precipitation and storm surges. The resilience of transportation infrastructure located in Louisiana's coastal zone, against storm surges and climatic sea-level rise is critical. The net change in sea-level is affected by the increase in global sea level as well as land movement up or down. There are many places in coastal Louisiana that have a high subsidence rate. The subsidence could be related to excess extraction activities of oil and water, natural and/or human induced compaction, and tectonic movement. Where the land is sinking, the rate of relative sea level rise is larger than the global rate. Some of the fastest rates of relative sea level rise in the United States are occurring in areas where the land is sinking, including parts of the Gulf Coast. For example, coastal Louisiana has seen its relative sea level rise by eight inches or more in the last 50 years, which is about twice the global rate. Subsiding land in the Gulf area worsens the effects of relative sea level rise, increasing the risk of flooding in cities, inhabited islands, and tidal wetlands. The research team is investigating the trends for sea-level rise and land subsidence in coastal region of Louisiana. The variability in storm surges and its potential implication on the transportation infrastructure in the region is the focus of the study. The spatial maps will be created for spatial trends. This is extremely useful in being prepared for long-term natural hazards. The results of this study will be helpful to LADOTD and infrastructure managers and officials who are tasked with resiliency planning and management. Research results will also directly benefit university researchers in the state, Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority and LADOTD/LTRC through collaborative activity which will educate both professionals and the general public on issues related to transportation infrastructure in coastal areas while increasing overall public awareness. Also, the outcomes of the project will serve as an educational and research tool to convey to undergraduate and graduate students on how climate changes affect the transportation infrastructure safety/stability in the coastal region of the state.

Agricultural conversion reduces biospheric vegetation productivity in the absence of external inputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, W. K.; Cleveland, C. C.; Reed, S.; Running, S. W.

2013-12-01

Increasing global population, energy demand, and standard of living has driven humanity to co-opt a growing share of the planet's natural resources resulting in many well-known environmental trade-offs. Here, we explored the impact of global-scale agricultural production on a basic resource fundamental to life on Earth: global terrestrial vegetation growth (net primary production; NPP). First, we compared current rates of agricultural NPP - derived from crop-specific agricultural statistics - with rates of natural NPP - derived from satellite measurements. Next, we disaggregated our results by climate zone, conversion type, crop type, management intensity, and region to identify where agricultural conversion has driven significant degradation of biospheric NPP. At the global-scale, our data indicate that agricultural conversion has resulted in a ~7% reduction in biospheric NPP (ΔNPP), although the impact varied widely at the pixel level. Positive ΔNPP values, signifying an increase in NPP due to agricultural conversion, occurred only in areas receiving significant external water and nutrient inputs (i.e., intensively managed areas). Conversely, negative ΔNPP values, signifying a reduction in NPP due to agricultural conversion, occurred over ~90% of agricultural lands globally, with the largest reductions in areas formerly occupied by tropical forests and savannas (71% and 66% reductions in NPP, respectively). Without new global-scale policies that explicitly consider changes in NPP due to land cover conversion, future demand-driven increases in agricultural output - likely dependent on some level of expansion into natural ecosystems - could continue to drive net declines in biospheric NPP, with potential detrimental consequences for global carbon storage. A spatially explicit estimate of the effect of agricultural land cover conversion on natural primary production for 20 staple crops. ΔNPP was estimated independently for a) irrigated, b) high input, c) low input, and d) subsistence management intensities. All remaining vegetated land is represented in grey, while barren land is represented in white. Globally, agricultural land cover conversion has reduced natural primary production by 3.0 × 0.68 Pg C y-1 (i.e., a ~7% reduction in biospheric NPP), with a disproportionately large percentage of this reduction attributable to the conversion of temperate (~44%) and tropical (~50%) ecosystems.

Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2012-12-01

Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

Tracking historical increases in nitrogen-driven crop production possibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, N. D.; Lassaletta, L.; Billen, G.; Garnier, J.; Gerber, J. S.

2015-12-01

The environmental costs of nitrogen use have prompted a focus on improving the efficiency of nitrogen use in the global food system, the primary source of nitrogen pollution. Typical approaches to improving agricultural nitrogen use efficiency include more targeted field-level use (timing, placement, and rate) and modification of the crop mix. However, global efficiency gains can also be achieved by improving the spatial allocation of nitrogen between regions or countries, due to consistent diminishing returns at high nitrogen use. This concept is examined by constructing a tradeoff frontier (or production possibilities frontier) describing global crop protein yield as a function of applied nitrogen from all sources, given optimal spatial allocation. Yearly variation in country-level input-output nitrogen budgets are utilized to parameterize country-specific hyperbolic yield-response models. Response functions are further characterized for three ~15-year eras beginning in 1961, and series of calculations uses these curves to simulate optimal spatial allocation in each era and determine the frontier. The analyses reveal that excess nitrogen (in recent years) could be reduced by ~40% given optimal spatial allocation. Over time, we find that gains in yield potential and in-country nitrogen use efficiency have led to increases in the global nitrogen production possibilities frontier. However, this promising shift has been accompanied by an actual spatial distribution of nitrogen use that has become less optimal, in an absolute sense, relative to the frontier. We conclude that examination of global production possibilities is a promising approach to understanding production constraints and efficiency opportunities in the global food system.

Job satisfaction and short-term sickness absence among Dutch workers.

PubMed

Notenbomer, Annette; Roelen, Corné A M; Groothoff, Johan W

2006-06-01

Sickness absence is a considerable economic and social problem. Short-term sickness absence is known to be associated with behavioural attitudes. The correlation between sickness absence and job satisfaction has been studied infrequently and with contradictory results. This study investigated the correlation between short-term sickness absence and both global and specific job satisfaction. We defined short-term sickness absence as spells of up to 42 days. A random sample of 898 Dutch workers from a variety of economic sectors and companies received a self-report questionnaire on their first day of sick leave. The questionnaire measured global and specific job satisfaction. In our regression analysis, we controlled for the confounding factors of age, gender, educational level, perceived workload, job autonomy and decision latitude. The duration of an absence spell was defined as the amount of calendar days between sick leave and return to work. Global job satisfaction did not correlate significantly with the duration of short-term sickness absence. While increasing physical job demands predicted longer absence, increasing job autonomy and educational level predicted shorter absence. Satisfaction with colleagues predicted longer duration absence. Global job satisfaction did not correlate with the duration of short-term absence spells, but specific satisfaction with colleagues was associated with longer sickness spells.

[The modern patient in conditions of globalization].

PubMed

Jiliyayeva, Ye P

2013-01-01

The article makes an attempt to detect main characteristics of status of modern patient on the basis of analysis of Russian and international materials. Nowadays, patient plays an active role both in process of receiving medical care and in issues of health policy and public health. The patient has many rights and modes to defend them. At the national and international levels, many organizations of patients exist and their authority and impact only increase. The globalization effects on structure of patients, because it brought facilitation of trans-borders travel and resulted in development of medical tourism and increase of migration. The structure of patients becomes more various in its national and ethnic belonging, cultural and language characteristics. This trend generated new requirements to training of medical personnel and functioning of health services. The globalization also enhances social economic inequity between patients and hence complicates accessibility of high quality medical care to population. The main traits of modern patient are to be studied and analyzed on all levels with purpose to develop an important basis for successful planning, reformation and development of public health.

A microRNA feedback loop regulates global microRNA abundance during aging.

PubMed

Inukai, Sachi; Pincus, Zachary; de Lencastre, Alexandre; Slack, Frank J

2018-02-01

Expression levels of many microRNAs (miRNAs) change during aging, notably declining globally in a number of organisms and tissues across taxa. However, little is known about the mechanisms or the biological relevance for this change. We investigated the network of genes that controls miRNA transcription and processing during C. elegans aging. We found that miRNA biogenesis genes are highly networked with transcription factors and aging-associated miRNAs. In particular, miR-71, known to influence life span and itself up-regulated during aging, represses alg-1 /Argonaute expression post-transcriptionally during aging. Increased ALG-1 abundance in mir-71 loss-of-function mutants led to globally increased miRNA expression. Interestingly, these mutants demonstrated widespread mRNA expression dysregulation and diminished levels of variability both in gene expression and in overall life span. Thus, the progressive molecular decline often thought to be the result of accumulated damage over an organism's life may be partially explained by a miRNA-directed mechanism of age-associated decline. © 2018 Inukai et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press for the RNA Society.

From blockchain technology to global health equity: can cryptocurrencies finance universal health coverage?

PubMed Central

Till, Brian M; Peters, Alexander W; Afshar, Salim; Meara, John G

2017-01-01

Blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies could remake global health financing and usher in an era global health equity and universal health coverage. We outline and provide examples for at least four important ways in which this potential disruption of traditional global health funding mechanisms could occur: universal access to financing through direct transactions without third parties; novel new multilateral financing mechanisms; increased security and reduced fraud and corruption; and the opportunity for open markets for healthcare data that drive discovery and innovation. We see these issues as a paramount to the delivery of healthcare worldwide and relevant for payers and providers of healthcare at state, national and global levels; for government and non-governmental organisations; and for global aid organisations, including the WHO, International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group. PMID:29177101

Robust Hadley Circulation Changes and Increasing Global Dryness Due to CO2 Warming from CMIP-5 Model Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, K. M.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness under CO2 warming from CMIP-5 model projections. We find a strengthening of the ascending branch of the HC manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, increased high clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200-100 hectopascals) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence, reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among water cycle parameters examined, global dryness has the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide scientific bases for inferring that the observed tend of prolonged droughts in recent decades is likely attributable to greenhouse warming.

Atmospheric Transference of the Toxic Burden of Atmosphere-Surface Exchangeable Pollutants to the Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, A.; Perlinger, J. A.; Giang, A.; Zhang, H.; Selin, N. E.; Wu, S.

2016-12-01

Toxic pollutants that share certain chemical properties undergo repeated emission and deposition between Earth's surfaces and the atmosphere. Following their emission through anthropogenic activities, they are transported locally, regionally or globally through the atmosphere, are deposited, and impact local ecosystems, in some cases as a result of bioaccumulation in food webs. We call them atmosphere-surface exchangeable pollutants or "ASEPs", wherein this group is comprised of thousands of chemicals. We are studying potential future contamination in the Great Lakes region by modeling scenarios of the future for three compounds/compound classes, mercury, polychlorinated biphenyl compounds, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. In this presentation we focus on mercury and future scenarios of contamination of the Great Lake region. The atmospheric transport of mercury under specific scenarios will be discussed. The global 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem has been applied to estimate future atmospheric concentrations and deposition rates of mercury in the Great Lakes region for selected future scenarios of emissions and climate. We find that, assuming no changes in climate, annual mean net deposition flux of mercury to the Great Lakes Region may increase by approximately 50% over 2005 levels by 2050, without global or regional policies addressing mercury, air pollution, and climate. In contrast, we project that the combination of global and North American action on mercury could lead to a 21% reduction in deposition from 2005 levels by 2050. US action alone results in a projected 18% reduction over 2005 levels by 2050. We also find that, assuming no changes in anthropogenic emissions, climate change and biomass burning emissions would, respectively, cause annual mean net deposition flux of mercury to the Great Lakes Region to increase by approximately 5% and decrease by approximately 2% over 2000 levels by 2050.

Global trend according to estimated number of occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases at region and country level.

PubMed

Hämäläinen, Päivi; Leena Saarela, Kaija; Takala, Jukka

2009-01-01

Although occupational accidents and work-related diseases have been of interest for a long time, due to lack of proper recording and notification systems the official numbers of occupational accidents and work-related diseases are missing for many countries. Presently, the demand for effectiveness and an interest in the economic aspects of accidents have increased prevention activities at company and country levels. Occupational accident data of selected countries and of World Health Organization regional divisions together with the global burden of disease were used in estimating global occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases. The trend of global occupational accidents and work-related diseases is presented at region and country levels. The years 1998, 2001, and 2003 are compared in the case of occupational accidents and the years 2000 and 2002 in the case of work-related diseases. The total number of occupational accidents and fatal work-related diseases has increased, but the fatality rates per 100,000 workers have decreased. There were almost 360,000 fatal occupational accidents in 2003 and almost 2 million fatal work-related diseases in 2002. Every day more than 960,000 workers get hurt because of accidents. Each day 5,330 people die because of work-related diseases. Information on occupational accidents and work-related diseases is needed so that countries may understand better the importance of occupational health and safety at country and company level. Especially companies in developing countries are not familiar with occupational safety and health. Statistical data is essential for accident prevention; it is a starting point for the safety work.

Institutional Collaborations in Ireland: Leveraging an Increased International Presence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eddy, Pamela L.

2010-01-01

This chapter highlights how shifts in policy within Ireland toward increased global rankings and quality of educational programs and a heightened interest in research have been operationalized on the ground. The Higher Education Authority initiated a Programme for Research in Third-Level Institutions (PRTLI) to provide seed money for research…

The Mental Health of University Students in the United Kingdom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Macaskill, Ann

2013-01-01

There are increasing concerns globally about the mental health of students. In the UK, the actual incidence of mental disturbance is unknown, although university counselling services report increased referrals. This study assesses the levels of mental illness in undergraduate students to examine whether widening participation in education has…

Examining Construct Validity of the Quantitative Literacy VALUE Rubric in College-Level STEM Assignments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gray, Julie S.; Brown, Melissa A.; Connolly, John P.

2017-01-01

Data-driven decision making is increasingly viewed as essential in a globally competitive society. Initiatives to augment standardized testing with performance-based assessment have increased as educators progressively respond to mandates for authentic measurement of student attainment. To meet this challenge, multidisciplinary rubrics were…

Book review: Encyclopedia of biological invasions

Treesearch

Qinfeng Guo

2011-01-01

Species introductions and consequent biotic invasions and homogenization are major components of global change that are drawing increasing concern and various levels of actions and reactions around the world. Invasion ecology has advanced rapidly during the last few decades, and the discipline is now increasingly integrated with the social and economic sciences. A...

From the Myth of Level Playing Fields to the Reality of a Finite Planet

PubMed Central

Labonté, Ronald

2016-01-01

Despite the mythology that the global economy with its trade rules creates a ‘level playing field,’ international trade has never involved ‘level players.’ The inequalities in outcomes generated by the more powerful winning more frequently has led to innovative ideas for ex post redistribution to make the matches between the players both fairer, and in the analogy to basketball used by the authors, more interesting and even more competitive. The proposal for a Global Social Protection Fund, financed by a small tax on the winners to enhance social protection spending for the losers, presumably increasing the latter’s capabilities to compete more effectively in the global market game, is one such idea. It has much to commend it. Several problems, however, stand in its way, apart from those inherent within nations themselves and to which the authors give some attention. First, much global trade is now intra-firm rather than international, making calculations of which nations win or lose exceedingly difficult. Second, tax havens persist without the transparency and global regulatory oversights that would allow a better rendering of where winnings are stashed. Third, pre-distribution inequalities (those arising from market activities before government tax and transfer measures apply) are still increasing as labour’s power to wrestle global capital into some ameliorative social contract diminishes. Fourth, there are finite limits to a planet on the cusp of multiple environmental crises. These problems do not diminish the necessity of alternative policy playbooks such as the proposed Fund, but point to the need to embrace the new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a single set, such that economic growth for the bottom half of humanity includes deep structural reforms to both pre-distribution and redistribution, if the targets for environmental survival are to be met. PMID:26927404

Children inhibit global information when the forest is dense and local information when the forest is sparse.

PubMed

Krakowski, Claire-Sara; Borst, Grégoire; Vidal, Julie; Houdé, Olivier; Poirel, Nicolas

2018-09-01

Visual environments are composed of global shapes and local details that compete for attentional resources. In adults, the global level is processed more rapidly than the local level, and global information must be inhibited in order to process local information when the local information and global information are in conflict. Compared with adults, children present less of a bias toward global visual information and appear to be more sensitive to the density of local elements that constitute the global level. The current study aimed, for the first time, to investigate the key role of inhibition during global/local processing in children. By including two different conditions of global saliency during a negative priming procedure, the results showed that when the global level was salient (dense hierarchical figures), 7-year-old children and adults needed to inhibit the global level to process the local information. However, when the global level was less salient (sparse hierarchical figures), only children needed to inhibit the local level to process the global information. These results confirm a weaker global bias and the greater impact of saliency in children than in adults. Moreover, the results indicate that, regardless of age, inhibition of the most salient hierarchical level is systematically required to select the less salient but more relevant level. These findings have important implications for future research in this area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Humid Heat Waves at different warming levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, S.; Sillmann, J.; Sterl, A.

2017-12-01

The co-occurrence of consecutive hot and humid days during a heat wave can strongly affect human health. Here, we quantify humid heat wave hazard in the recent past and at different levels of global warming.We find that the magnitude and apparent temperature peak of heat waves, such as the ones observed in Chicago in 1995 and China in 2003, have been strongly amplified by humidity. Climate model projections suggest that the percentage of area where heat wave magnitude and peak are amplified by humidity increases with increasing warming levels. Considering the effect of humidity at 1.5o and 2o global warming, highly populated regions, such as the Eastern US and China, could experience heat waves with magnitude greater than the one in Russia in 2010 (the most severe of the present era).The apparent temperature peak during such humid-heat waves can be greater than 55o. According to the US Weather Service, at this temperature humans are very likely to suffer from heat strokes. Humid-heat waves with these conditions were never exceeded in the present climate, but are expected to occur every other year at 4o global warming. This calls for respective adaptation measures in some key regions of the world along with international climate change mitigation efforts.

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-03-01

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Maternal consumption of high-fat diet and grape juice modulates global histone H4 acetylation levels in offspring hippocampus: A preliminary study.

PubMed

Gonçalves, Luciana Kneib; da Silva, Ivy Reichert Vital; Cechinel, Laura Reck; Frusciante, Marina Rocha; de Mello, Alexandre Silva; Elsner, Viviane Rostirola; Funchal, Claudia; Dani, Caroline

2017-11-20

This study aimed to investigate the impact of maternal consumption of a hyperlipid diet and grape juice on global histone H4 acetylation levels in the offsprinǵs hippocampus at different stages of development. During pregnancy and lactation of offspring, dams were divided into 4 groups: control diet (CD), high-fat diet (HFD), control diet and purple grape juice (PGJCD) and purple grape juice and high-fat diet (PGJHFD). Male Wistar rats were euthanized at 21days of age (PN21, adolescents) and at 50days of age (PN50, adults). The maternal consumption of grape juice increased global histone H4 acetylation levels in hippocampus of adolescents pups (PN21), an indicative of enhanced transcriptional activity and increased gene expression. On the other hand, the maternal high-fat diet diminished significantly this epigenetic marker in the adult phase (PN50), suggesting gene silencing. These preliminary findings demonstrated that the maternal choices are able to induce changes on histone H4 acetylation status in hippocampus of the offspring, which may modulate the expression of specific genes. Interestingly, this response occurs in an age and stimuli-dependent manner and strongly reinforce the importance of maternal choices during gestation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vertical resolution of baroclinic modes in global ocean models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, K. D.; Hogg, A. McC.; Griffies, S. M.; Heerdegen, A. P.; Ward, M. L.; Spence, P.; England, M. H.

2017-05-01

Improvements in the horizontal resolution of global ocean models, motivated by the horizontal resolution requirements for specific flow features, has advanced modelling capabilities into the dynamical regime dominated by mesoscale variability. In contrast, the choice of the vertical grid remains a subjective choice, and it is not clear that efforts to improve vertical resolution adequately support their horizontal counterparts. Indeed, considering that the bulk of the vertical ocean dynamics (including convection) are parameterized, it is not immediately obvious what the vertical grid is supposed to resolve. Here, we propose that the primary purpose of the vertical grid in a hydrostatic ocean model is to resolve the vertical structure of horizontal flows, rather than to resolve vertical motion. With this principle we construct vertical grids based on their abilities to represent baroclinic modal structures commensurate with the theoretical capabilities of a given horizontal grid. This approach is designed to ensure that the vertical grids of global ocean models complement (and, importantly, to not undermine) the resolution capabilities of the horizontal grid. We find that for z-coordinate global ocean models, at least 50 well-positioned vertical levels are required to resolve the first baroclinic mode, with an additional 25 levels per subsequent mode. High-resolution ocean-sea ice simulations are used to illustrate some of the dynamical enhancements gained by improving the vertical resolution of a 1/10° global ocean model. These enhancements include substantial increases in the sea surface height variance (∼30% increase south of 40°S), the barotropic and baroclinic eddy kinetic energies (up to 200% increase on and surrounding the Antarctic continental shelf and slopes), and the overturning streamfunction in potential density space (near-tripling of the Antarctic Bottom Water cell at 65°S).

Global Warming Denial: The Human Brain on Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrouch, N.; Johnson, B. T.; Slawinska, J. M.

2016-12-01

Future assessments of climate change rely on multi-model intercomparisons, and projections of the extreme events frequency are of particular interest as associated with significant economic costs and social threats. Notably, systematically simulated increases in the number of extreme weather events agree well with observational data over the last decade. At the same time, as the climate grows more volatile, widespread denial of climate change and its anthropocentric causes continues to proliferate (based on nationally representative U.S. polls). Simultaneous increases in both high-impact exposure and its denial is in stark contrast with our knowledge of socio-natural dynamics and its models. Disentangling this paradox requires an understanding of the origins of global warming denial at an individual level, and how subsequently it propagates across social networks of many scales, shaping global policies. However, as the real world and its dynamical models are complex (high-dimensional and coupled), separating the particular feedback of interest remains a challenge. Here, we demonstrate this feedback in a controlled experiment, where increasing unpredictability using helplessness-training paradigms induces changes in global warming denial, and the endorsement of conservative ideology. We explain these results in the context of evolutionary theory framing self-deception and denial as remnants of evolutionary processes that shaped and facilitated the survival of the human species. Further we link these findings to changes in neural and higher-level cognitive processes in response to unpredictable stimuli. We argue that climate change denial is an example of an extreme belief system that carries the potential to threaten the wellbeing of both humans and other species alike. It is therefore crucial to better quantify climate denial using social informatics tools that provide the means to improve its representations in coupled socio-geophysical models to mitigate its effects on global and local policies.

Global network centrality of university rankings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Weisi; Del Vecchio, Marco; Pogrebna, Ganna

2017-10-01

Universities and higher education institutions form an integral part of the national infrastructure and prestige. As academic research benefits increasingly from international exchange and cooperation, many universities have increased investment in improving and enabling their global connectivity. Yet, the relationship of university performance and its global physical connectedness has not been explored in detail. We conduct, to our knowledge, the first large-scale data-driven analysis into whether there is a correlation between university relative ranking performance and its global connectivity via the air transport network. The results show that local access to global hubs (as measured by air transport network betweenness) strongly and positively correlates with the ranking growth (statistical significance in different models ranges between 5% and 1% level). We also found that the local airport's aggregate flight paths (degree) and capacity (weighted degree) has no effect on university ranking, further showing that global connectivity distance is more important than the capacity of flight connections. We also examined the effect of local city economic development as a confounding variable and no effect was observed suggesting that access to global transportation hubs outweighs economic performance as a determinant of university ranking. The impact of this research is that we have determined the importance of the centrality of global connectivity and, hence, established initial evidence for further exploring potential connections between university ranking and regional investment policies on improving global connectivity.

Global network centrality of university rankings

PubMed Central

Del Vecchio, Marco; Pogrebna, Ganna

2017-01-01

Universities and higher education institutions form an integral part of the national infrastructure and prestige. As academic research benefits increasingly from international exchange and cooperation, many universities have increased investment in improving and enabling their global connectivity. Yet, the relationship of university performance and its global physical connectedness has not been explored in detail. We conduct, to our knowledge, the first large-scale data-driven analysis into whether there is a correlation between university relative ranking performance and its global connectivity via the air transport network. The results show that local access to global hubs (as measured by air transport network betweenness) strongly and positively correlates with the ranking growth (statistical significance in different models ranges between 5% and 1% level). We also found that the local airport’s aggregate flight paths (degree) and capacity (weighted degree) has no effect on university ranking, further showing that global connectivity distance is more important than the capacity of flight connections. We also examined the effect of local city economic development as a confounding variable and no effect was observed suggesting that access to global transportation hubs outweighs economic performance as a determinant of university ranking. The impact of this research is that we have determined the importance of the centrality of global connectivity and, hence, established initial evidence for further exploring potential connections between university ranking and regional investment policies on improving global connectivity. PMID:29134105

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

2014-01-01

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Global warming and the potential spread of vector-borne diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patz, J.

1996-12-31

Climatic factors influence many vector-borne infectious diseases, in addition to demographic, biological, and ecological determinants. The United Nation`s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates an unprecedented global rise of 2.0 C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the spread of many serious infectious diseases, including malaria and dengue fever. Global warming would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the mosquito`s geographic range, increasing reproductive and biting rates, and shortening pathogen incubation period. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability and sea level rise could indirectlymore » contribute to disease transmission. A review of this literature, as well as preliminary data from ongoing studies will be presented.« less

The direction of evolution: the rise of cooperative organization.

PubMed

Stewart, John E

2014-09-01

Two great trends are evident in the evolution of life on Earth: towards increasing diversification and towards increasing integration. Diversification has spread living processes across the planet, progressively increasing the range of environments and free energy sources exploited by life. Integration has proceeded through a stepwise process in which living entities at one level are integrated into cooperative groups that become larger-scale entities at the next level, and so on, producing cooperative organizations of increasing scale (for example, cooperative groups of simple cells gave rise to the more complex eukaryote cells, groups of these gave rise to multi-cellular organisms, and cooperative groups of these organisms produced animal societies). The trend towards increasing integration has continued during human evolution with the progressive increase in the scale of human groups and societies. The trends towards increasing diversification and integration are both driven by selection. An understanding of the trajectory and causal drivers of the trends suggests that they are likely to culminate in the emergence of a global entity. This entity would emerge from the integration of the living processes, matter, energy and technology of the planet into a global cooperative organization. Such an integration of the results of previous diversifications would enable the global entity to exploit the widest possible range of resources across the varied circumstances of the planet. This paper demonstrates that it's case for directionality meets the tests and criticisms that have proven fatal to previous claims for directionality in evolution. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Potential effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on coastal wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKee, Karen

2006-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere has steadily increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) in preindustrial times to 381 ppm today and is predicted by some models to double within the next century. Some of the important pathways whereby changes in atmospheric CO2 may impact coastal wetlands include changes in temperature, rainfall, and hurricane intensity (fig. 1). Increases in CO2 can contribute to global warming, which may (1) accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice fields and steric expansion of oceans, (2) alter rainfall patterns and salinity regimes, and (3) change the intensity and frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes. Sea-level rise combined with changes in storm activity may affect erosion and sedimentation rates and patterns in coastal wetlands and maintenance of soil elevations.Feedback loops between plant growth and hydroedaphic conditions also contribute to maintenance of marsh elevations through accumulation of organic matter. Although increasing CO2 concentration may contribute to global warming and climate changes, it may also have a direct impact on plant growth and development by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use efficiency. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey are examining responses of wetland plants to elevated CO2 concentration and other factors. This research will lead to a better understanding of future changes in marsh species composition, successional rates and patterns, ecological functioning, and vulnerability to sea-level rise and other global change factors.

The Effects of Temperature on Political Violence: Global Evidence at the Subnational Level

PubMed Central

Bollfrass, Alexander; Shaver, Andrew

2015-01-01

A number of studies have demonstrated an empirical relationship between higher ambient temperatures and substate violence, which have been extrapolated to make predictions about the security implications of climate change. This literature rests on the untested assumption that the mechanism behind the temperature-conflict link is that disruption of agricultural production provokes local violence. Using a subnational-level dataset, this paper demonstrates that the relationship: (1) obtains globally, (2) exists at the substate level — provinces that experience positive temperature deviations see increased conflict; and (3) occurs even in regions without significant agricultural production. Diminished local farm output resulting from elevated temperatures is unlikely to account for the entire increase in substate violence. The findings encourage future research to identify additional mechanisms, including the possibility that a substantial portion of the variation is brought about by the well-documented direct effects of temperature on individuals' propensity for violence or through macroeconomic mechanisms such as food price shocks. PMID:25992616

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

PubMed Central

Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-01-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610370

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

PubMed

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R

2018-05-13

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-05-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America.

PubMed

Colón-González, Felipe J; Harris, Ian; Osborn, Timothy J; Steiner São Bernardo, Christine; Peres, Carlos A; Hunter, Paul R; Lake, Iain R

2018-06-12

The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8-7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2-1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5–2 °C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America

PubMed Central

Harris, Ian; Osborn, Timothy J.; Steiner São Bernardo, Christine; Peres, Carlos A.; Lake, Iain R.

2018-01-01

The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8–7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2–1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming. PMID:29844166

On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

2010-12-01

Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

Demographic controls of future global fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

2016-08-01

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

Higher levels of depression are associated with reduced global bias in visual processing.

PubMed

de Fockert, Jan W; Cooper, Andrew

2014-04-01

Negative moods have been associated with a tendency to prioritise local details in visual processing. The current study investigated the relation between depression and visual processing using the Navon task, a standard task of local and global processing. In the Navon task, global stimuli are presented that are made up of many local parts, and the participants are instructed to report the identity of either a global or a local target shape. Participants with a low self-reported level of depression showed evidence of the expected global processing bias, and were significantly faster at responding to the global, compared with the local level. By contrast, no such difference was observed in participants with high levels of depression. The reduction of the global bias associated with high levels of depression was only observed in the overall speed of responses to global (versus local) targets, and not in the level of interference produced by the global (versus local) distractors. These results are in line with recent findings of a dissociation between local/global processing bias and interference from local/global distractors, and support the claim that depression is associated with a reduction in the tendency to prioritise global-level processing.

World Input-Output Network

PubMed Central

Cerina, Federica; Zhu, Zhen; Chessa, Alessandro; Riccaboni, Massimo

2015-01-01

Production systems, traditionally analyzed as almost independent national systems, are increasingly connected on a global scale. Only recently becoming available, the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) is one of the first efforts to construct the global multi-regional input-output (GMRIO) tables. By viewing the world input-output system as an interdependent network where the nodes are the individual industries in different economies and the edges are the monetary goods flows between industries, we analyze respectively the global, regional, and local network properties of the so-called world input-output network (WION) and document its evolution over time. At global level, we find that the industries are highly but asymmetrically connected, which implies that micro shocks can lead to macro fluctuations. At regional level, we find that the world production is still operated nationally or at most regionally as the communities detected are either individual economies or geographically well defined regions. Finally, at local level, for each industry we compare the network-based measures with the traditional methods of backward linkages. We find that the network-based measures such as PageRank centrality and community coreness measure can give valuable insights into identifying the key industries. PMID:26222389

Quantification of Global DNA Methylation Levels by Mass Spectrometry.

PubMed

Fernandez, Agustin F; Valledor, Luis; Vallejo, Fernando; Cañal, Maria Jesús; Fraga, Mario F

2018-01-01

Global DNA methylation was classically considered the relative percentage of 5-methylcysine (5mC) with respect to total cytosine (C). Early approaches were based on the use of high-performance separation technologies and UV detection. However, the recent development of protocols using mass spectrometry for the detection has increased sensibility and permitted the precise identification of peak compounds based on their molecular masses. This allows work to be conducted with much less genomic DNA starting material and also to quantify 5-hydroxymethyl-cytosine (5hmC), a recently identified form of methylated cytosine that could play an important role in active DNA demethylation. Here, we describe the protocol that we currently use in our laboratory to analyze 5mC and 5hmC by mass spectrometry. The protocol, which is based on the method originally developed by Le and colleagues using Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography (UPLC) and mass spectrometry (triple Quadrupole (QqQ)) detection, allows for the rapid and accurate quantification of relative global 5mC and 5hmC levels starting from just 1 μg of genomic DNA, which allows for the rapid and accurate quantification of relative global 5mC and 5hmC levels.

China and the Global Uranium Market: Prospects for Peaceful Coexistence

PubMed Central

Massot, Pascale

2013-01-01

China's recent reemergence has resulted in a significant increase in the global demand of commodities and is already having major impacts on the dynamics of global commodity markets. In the case of the global uranium market, we stand at the very beginning of a period of change. However, interesting trends are already emerging. Whereas China has had many policy reversals, and some difficulties in taking control of its procurement strategy in other commodity markets, it is seemingly more successful in managing its uranium procurement strategy. Why? The argument presented here is that a mixture of domestic and international level variables has allowed China more room for maneuver in fulfilling its uranium procurement strategy. On the domestic level, a centralized industry, and, on the international level, a geographically dispersed and uncoordinated market have allowed China to forge ahead with an ambitious civilian nuclear power plan and triple its total uranium imports, all within the span of a few years. Many challenges remain, not the least that of negative public opinion, which has surged since the Fukushima disaster in 2011. Nevertheless, should uranium demand continue to grow, this paper will consider the potential for continued peaceful coexistence among uranium market participants worldwide. PMID:23606818

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfleiderer, Peter; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mengel, Matthias; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2 °C for a warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and about a 10% increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities.

The physiology of mangrove trees with changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lovelock, Catherine E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Osland, Michael J.; Reef, Ruth; Ball, Marilyn C.; Meinzer, Frederick C.; Niinemets, Ülo

2016-01-01

Mangrove forests grow on saline, periodically flooded soils of the tropical and subtropical coasts. The tree species that comprise the mangrove are halophytes that have suites of traits that confer differing levels of tolerance of salinity, aridity, inundation and extremes of temperature. Here we review how climate change and elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 will influence mangrove forests. Tolerance of salinity and inundation in mangroves is associated with the efficient use of water for photosynthetic carbon gain which unpins anticipated gains in productivity with increasing levels of CO2. We review evidence of increases in productivity with increasing CO2, finding that enhancements in growth appear to be similar to trees in non-mangrove habitats and that gains in productivity with elevated CO2 are likely due to changes in biomass allocation. High levels of trait plasticity are observed in some mangrove species, which potentially facilitates their responses to climate change. Trait plasticity is associated with broad tolerance of salinity, aridity, low temperatures and nutrient availability. Because low temperatures and aridity place strong limits on mangrove growth at the edge of their current distribution, increasing temperatures over time and changing rainfall patterns are likely to have an important influence on the distribution of mangroves. We provide a global analysis based on plant traits and IPCC scenarios of changing temperature and aridity that indicates substantial global potential for mangrove expansion.

Printed Circuit Board Surface Finish and Effects of Chloride Contamination, Electric Field, and Humidity on Corrosion Reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conseil-Gudla, Hélène; Jellesen, Morten S.; Ambat, Rajan

2017-02-01

Corrosion reliability is a serious issue today for electronic devices, components, and printed circuit boards (PCBs) due to factors such as miniaturization, globalized manufacturing practices which can lead to process-related residues, and global usage effects such as bias voltage and unpredictable user environments. The investigation reported in this paper focuses on understanding the synergistic effect of such parameters, namely contamination, humidity, PCB surface finish, pitch distance, and potential bias on leakage current under different humidity levels, and electrochemical migration probability under condensing conditions. Leakage currents were measured on interdigitated comb test patterns with three different types of surface finish typically used in the electronics industry, namely gold, copper, and tin. Susceptibility to electrochemical migration was studied under droplet conditions. The level of base leakage current (BLC) was similar for the different surface finishes and NaCl contamination levels up to relative humidity (RH) of 65%. A significant increase in leakage current was found for comb patterns contaminated with NaCl above 70% to 75% RH, close to the deliquescent RH of NaCl. Droplet tests on Cu comb patterns with varying pitch size showed that the initial BLC before dendrite formation increased with increasing NaCl contamination level, whereas electrochemical migration and the frequency of dendrite formation increased with bias voltage. The effect of different surface finishes on leakage current under humid conditions was not very prominent.

The impact of globalization on vaccine development and availability.

PubMed

Milstien, Julie B; Kaddar, Miloud; Kieny, Marie Paule

2006-01-01

Globalization is likely to affect many aspects of public health, one of which is vaccine-preventable communicable diseases. Important forces include increased funding initiatives supporting immunization at the global level; regulatory harmonization; widespread intellectual property rights provisions through the World Trade Organization agreements; the emergence of developing-country manufacturers as major players in vaccine supply; and the appearance of new communicable disease threats, including those potentially linked to bioterrorism. All of these forces can affect, either positively and negatively, the development and availability of vaccines. Harnessing these will be a challenge for policymakers and immunization stakeholders.

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2018-03-01

Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

Impact of GHG warming on the mean and extreme loading of particulate matter pollution in a chemistry-climate model ensemble simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Lamarque, J. F.; Wu, X.

2017-12-01

Particulate matter with the diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) poses health threats to human populations. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1), we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global warming alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the primary cause for the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally over North America and East Asia, a shift of future precipitation toward more frequent heavy events contributes to weakened wet removal fluxes. Based on the daily model output, the frequency and intensity of extreme pollution events are also studied. We found that both stagnation frequency and rainfall changes serve to worsen extreme pollution in the future.

The Effect of Increased Temperatures and Ultraviolet Radiation on Dissolved Oxygen in Ecosystems Primarily Comprised of "Euglena"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carpenter, Matt

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether increased levels of UV radiation and temperatures from global warming have a significant impact on dissolved oxygen (DO) output from the alga, "Euglena," which affects other organisms in the ecosystem. The original hypothesis stated that if temperature was increased along with exposure time to…

Genetic implications for forest trees of increasing levels of greenhouse gases and UV-B radiation

Treesearch

David F. Karnosky; Kevin E. Percy; Blanka Mankovska

2000-01-01

Globally, the environment is changing and deteriorating as greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and tropospheric ozone (03) continue to increase at a rate of about 1% per year (Keeling et al. 1995, Chameides et al. 1995). The increase in these gases is directly related to anthropogenic activities (Chameides et al...

Global occupational health: current challenges and the need for urgent action.

PubMed

Lucchini, Roberto G; London, Leslie

2014-01-01

Global occupational health and safety (OHS) is strictly linked to the dynamics of economic globalization. As the global market is increasing, the gap between developed and underdeveloped countries, occupational diseases, and injuries affect a vast number of workers worldwide. Global OHS issues also become local in developed countries due to many factors, including untrained migrant workers in the informal sector, construction, and agriculture. To identify the current status and challenges of global occupational health and safety and the needs for preventive action. Absence of OHS infrastructure amplifies the devastating consequences of infectious outbreaks like the Ebola pandemic and tuberculosis. Interventions in global OHS are urgently needed at various levels: 1. Increased governmental funding is needed for international organizations like the World Health Organization and the International Labor Organization to face the increasing demand for policies, guidance, and training. 2. Regulations to ban and control dangerous products are needed to avoid the transfer of hazardous production to developing countries. 3. The OHS community must address global OHS issues through advocacy, position papers, public statements, technical and ethical guidelines, and by encouraging access of OHS professionals from the developing countries to leadership positions in professional and academic societies. 4. Research, education, and training of OHS professionals, workers, unions and employers are needed to address global OHS issues and their local impact. 5. Consumers also can influence significantly the adoption of OHS practices by demanding the protection of workers who are producing he goods that are sold in the global market. Following the equation of maximized profits prompted by the inhibition of OHS is an old practice that has proven to cause significant costs to societies in the developed world. It is now an urgent priority to stop this process and promote a harmonized global market where the health of workers is guaranteed in the global perspective. Copyright © 2014 Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between global leukocyte DNA methylation and cardiovascular risk in postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Ramos, Ramon Bossardi; Fabris, Vitor; Lecke, Sheila Bunecker; Maturana, Maria Augusta; Spritzer, Poli Mara

2016-10-10

Genetic studies to date have not provided satisfactory evidence regarding risk polymorphisms for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Conversely, epigenetic mechanisms, including DNA methylation, seem to influence the risk of CVD and related conditions. Because postmenopausal women experience an increase in CVD, we set out to determine whether global DNA methylation was associated with cardiovascular risk in this population. In this cross sectional study carried out in a university hospital, 90 postmenopausal women without prior CVD diagnosis (55.5 ± 4.9 years, 5.8 [3.0-10.0] years since menopause) were enrolled. DNA was extracted from peripheral leukocytes and global DNA methylation levels were obtained with an ELISA kit. Cardiovascular risk was estimated by the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score (10-year risk) (FRS). Clinical and laboratory variables were assessed. Patients were stratified into two CVD risk groups: low (FRS: <10 %, n = 69) and intermediate/high risk (FRS ≥10 %, n = 21). Age, time since menopause, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and LDL-c levels were higher in FRS ≥10 % group vs. FRS <10 % group. BMI, triglycerides, HDL-c, HOMA-IR, glucose and hsC-reactive protein levels were similar in the two groups. Global DNA methylation (% 5mC) in the overall sample was 26.5 % (23.6-36.9). The FRS ≥10 % group presented lower global methylation levels compared with the FRS <10 % group: 23.9 % (20.6-29.1) vs. 28.8 % (24.3-39.6), p = 0.02. This analysis remained significant even after adjustment for time since menopause (p = 0.02). Our results indicate that lower global DNA methylation is associated with higher cardiovascular risk in postmenopausal women.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Borer, Elizabeth T.; et al, et al

Human alterations to nutrient cycles1,2 and herbivore communities3–7 are affecting global biodiversity dramatically2. Ecological theory predicts these changes should be strongly counteractive: nutrient addition drives plant species loss through intensified competition for light, whereas herbivores prevent competitive exclusion by increasing ground-level light, particularly in productive systems8,9. Here we use experimental data spanning a globally relevant range of conditions to test the hypothesis that herbaceous plant species losses caused by eutrophication may be offset by increased light availability due to herbivory. This experiment, replicated in 40 grasslands on 6 continents, demonstrates that nutrients and herbivores can serve as counteracting forces tomore » control local plant diversity through light limitation, independent of site productivity, soil nitrogen, herbivore type and climate. Nutrient addition consistently reduced local diversity through light limitation, and herbivory rescued diversity at sites where it alleviated light limitation. Thus, species loss from anthropogenic eutrophication can be ameliorated in grasslands where herbivory increases ground-level light.« less

Population Growth, Energy Use, and Pollution: Understanding the Driving Forces of Global Change. Hands-On! Developing Active Learning Modules on the Human Dimensions of Global Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuby, Michael

Since the beginning of the scientific revolution in the 1700s, the absolute scale of the human economy has increased many times over, and, with it, the impact on the natural environment. This learning module's activities introduce the student to linkages among population growth, energy use, level of economic and technological development and their…

Methylation-sensitive amplified polymorphism analysis of Verticillium wilt-stressed cotton (Gossypium).

PubMed

Wang, W; Zhang, M; Chen, H D; Cai, X X; Xu, M L; Lei, K Y; Niu, J H; Deng, L; Liu, J; Ge, Z J; Yu, S X; Wang, B H

2016-10-06

In this study, a methylation-sensitive amplification polymorphism analysis system was used to analyze DNA methylation level in three cotton accessions. Two disease-sensitive near-isogenic lines, PD94042 and IL41, and one disease-resistant Gossypium mustelinum accession were exposed to Verticillium wilt, to investigate molecular disease resistance mechanisms in cotton. We observed multiple different DNA methylation types across the three accessions following Verticillium wilt exposure. These included hypomethylation, hypermethylation, and other patterns. In general, the global DNA methylation level was significantly increased in the disease-resistant accession G. mustelinum following disease exposure. In contrast, there was no significant difference in the disease-sensitive accession PD94042, and a significant decrease was observed in IL41. Our results suggest that disease-resistant cotton might employ a mechanism to increase methylation level in response to disease stress. The differing methylation patterns, together with the increase in global DNA methylation level, might play important roles in tolerance to Verticillium wilt in cotton. Through cloning and analysis of differently methylated DNA sequences, we were also able to identify several genes that may contribute to disease resistance in cotton. Our results revealed the effect of DNA methylation on cotton disease resistance, and also identified genes that played important roles, which may shed light on the future cotton disease-resistant molecular breeding.

Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalsky, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey

2014-05-01

Global wheat production is strongly linked with food security as wheat is one of the main sources of human nutrition. Increasing or stabilizing wheat yields in response to climate change is therefore imperative. To do so will require agricultural management interventions that have different levels of flexibility at regional level. Climate change is expected to worsen wheat growing conditions in many places and thus negatively impact on future management opportunities for sustainable intensification. We quantified, in a spatially explicit manner, global wheat yield developments under the envelope of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) under current and alternative fertilization and irrigation management to estimate future flexibility to cope with climate change impacts. A large-scale implementation of the EPIC model was integrated with the most recent information on global wheat cultivation currently available, and it was used to simulate regional and global wheat yields and production under historical climate and the RCP-driven and bias-corrected HadGEM2-ES climate projections. Fertilization and irrigation management scenarios were designed to project actual and exploitable (under current irrigation infrastructure) yields as well as the climate- and water-limited yield potentials. With current nutrient and water management, and across all RCPs, the global wheat production at the end of the century decreased from 50 to 100 Mt - with RCP2.6 having the lowest and RCP8.5 the highest impact. Despite the decrease in global wheat production potential on current cropland, the exploitable and climatic production gap of respectively 350 and 580 Mt indicates a considerable flexibility to counteract negative climate change impacts across all RCPs. Agricultural management could increase global wheat production by approximately 30% through intensified fertilization and 50% through improved fertilization and extended irrigation if nutrients or water were not limiting.

Costs of eliminating malaria and the impact of the global fund in 34 countries.

PubMed

Zelman, Brittany; Kiszewski, Anthony; Cotter, Chris; Liu, Jenny

2014-01-01

International financing for malaria increased more than 18-fold between 2000 and 2011; the largest source came from The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund). Countries have made substantial progress, but achieving elimination requires sustained finances to interrupt transmission and prevent reintroduction. Since 2011, global financing for malaria has declined, fueling concerns that further progress will be impeded, especially for current malaria-eliminating countries that may face resurgent malaria if programs are disrupted. This study aims to 1) assess past total and Global Fund funding to the 34 current malaria-eliminating countries, and 2) estimate their future funding needs to achieve malaria elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030. Historical funding is assessed against trends in country-level malaria annual parasite incidences (APIs) and income per capita. Following Kizewski et al. (2007), program costs to eliminate malaria and prevent reintroduction through 2030 are estimated using a deterministic model. The cost parameters are tailored to a package of interventions aimed at malaria elimination and prevention of reintroduction. The majority of Global Fund-supported countries experiencing increases in total funding from 2005 to 2010 coincided with reductions in malaria APIs and also overall GNI per capita average annual growth. The total amount of projected funding needed for the current malaria-eliminating countries to achieve elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030 is approximately US$8.5 billion, or about $1.84 per person at risk per year (PPY) (ranging from $2.51 PPY in 2014 to $1.43 PPY in 2030). Although external donor funding, particularly from the Global Fund, has been key for many malaria-eliminating countries, sustained and sufficient financing is critical for furthering global malaria elimination. Projected cost estimates for elimination provide policymakers with an indication of the level of financial resources that should be mobilized to achieve malaria elimination goals.

Projections of atmospheric mercury levels and their effect on air quality in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, H.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Liang, X.-Z.; Tao, Z.; Olsen, S.; Artz, R.; Ren, X.; Cohen, M.

2013-08-01

The individual and combined effects of global climate change and emissions changes from 2000 to 2050 on atmospheric mercury levels in the US are investigated by using the global climate-chemistry model, CAM-chem, coupled with a mercury chemistry-physics mechanism (CAM-Chem/Hg). Three future pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) are considered, with the A1FI, A1B and B1 scenarios representing the upper, middle and lower bounds of potential climate warming, respectively. The anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of mercury are projected from the energy use assumptions in the IPCC SRES report. Natural emissions from both land and ocean sources are projected using dynamic schemes. The zonal mean surface total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentrations in the tropics and mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere are projected to increase by 0.5-1.2 ng m-3 in 2050. TGM concentration increases are greater in the low latitudes than they are in the high latitudes, indicative of a larger meridional gradient than in the present day. In the A1FI scenario, TGM concentrations in 2050 are projected to increase by 2.1-4.0 ng m-3 for the eastern US and 1.4-3.0 ng m-3 for the western US. This pattern corresponds to potential increases in wet deposition of 10-14 μg m-2 for the eastern US and 2-4 μg m-2 for the western US. The increase in Hg(II) emissions tends to enhance wet deposition and hence increase the risk of higher mercury entering the hydrological cycle and ecosystems. In the B1 scenario, mercury concentrations in 2050 are similar to present level concentrations; this indicates that the domestic reduction in mercury emissions is essentially counteracted by the effects of climate warming and emissions increases in other regions. The sensitivity analyses presented show that anthropogenic emissions changes contribute 32-53% of projected mercury air concentration changes, while the independent contribution by climate change accounts for 47-68%. In summary, global climate change could have a comparable effect on mercury pollution in the US to that caused by global emissions changes.

Establishment of the Geoglam Rangelands Acivity and Progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Youngentob, K. N.; Held, A. A.; Grundy, M.; Donohue, R. J.

2014-12-01

With global population predicted to reach around 9 billion by 2050 and the area of arable land per person declining, there is increased focus on the need to increase food production. As part of a systematic response to that need, improved monitoring of global food production has been identified by the G20 as a priority. The Global Agricultural Monitoring initiative has been established under the Group on Earth Observations (known as GEOGLAM) as a response to this need, with initial focus on the four main food crops of the world and the major exporting regions. However, it is not only the world's croplands that will come under pressure to further increase their productivity and production. Global rangelands, scrublands and pasturelands must become more productive in producing grassland plant biomass and increased animal protein production, to supply an ever-growing global demand for essential animal protein. An essential complementary focus is needed on the sustainability of these systems to both ensure sustained productivity and to maintain the broader range of ecosystem services providing out of these large global lands. Termed "GEOGLAM Rangelands and Pasture Productivity (RAPP)", this new GEO initiative will provide the global community with the means to monitor the world's rangelands and pasture lands on a routine basis, and the capacity to produce animal protein in real-time, at global, regional and national levels. The primary scope of RAPP will be to monitor aboveground biomass and the condition of land cover for those lands and ecosystems that are integral to producing animal protein on a 'free-range', open-field basis, and their sustainable management. Using available national animal herd statistics, aims to include global and regional population information on beef cattle, goats, sheep, camels, pork, dairy cattle, wild and managed buffalo and deer. This paper will provide a broad overview of the status of implementation of the RAPP monitoring system, and some highlights of the Australian pilot and partnerships that are contributing to this GEO task.

The relative importance of sources of greenhouse-gas emissions: comparison of global through subnational perspectives.

PubMed

Cushman, Robert M; Jones, Sonja B

2002-03-01

Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are widely expected to cause global warming and other climatic changes. It is important to establish priorities for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, so that resources can be allocated efficiently and effectively. This is a global problem, and it is possible, on a global scale, to identify those activities whose emissions have the greatest potential for enhancing the greenhouse effect. However, perspectives from smaller scales must be appreciated, because it is on scales down to the local level that response measures will be implemented. This paper analyzes the relative importance of emissions from the many individual sources, on scales ranging from global to national to subnational. Individual country perspectives and proposed policy measures and those of subnational political entities exhibit some commonalities but differ among themselves and from a global-scale perspective in detail.

The impact of economic, political and social globalization on overweight and obesity in the 56 low and middle income countries.

PubMed

Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Lobstein, Tim; James, W Philip T; Suhrcke, Marc

2015-05-01

Anecdotal and descriptive evidence has led to the claim that globalization plays a major role in inducing overweight and obesity in developing countries, but robust quantitative evidence is scarce. We undertook extensive econometric analyses of several datasets, using a series of new proxies for different dimensions of globalization potentially affecting overweight in up to 887,000 women aged 15-49 living in 56 countries between 1991 and 2009. After controlling for relevant individual and country level factors, globalization as a whole is substantially and significantly associated with an increase in the individual propensity to be overweight among women. Surprisingly, political and social globalization dominate the influence of the economic dimension. Hence, more consideration needs to be given to the forms of governance required to shape a more health-oriented globalization process. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The impact of economic, political and social globalization on overweight and obesity in the 56 low and middle income countries

PubMed Central

Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Lobstein, Tim; James, W. Philip T.; Suhrcke, Marc

2015-01-01

Anecdotal and descriptive evidence has led to the claim that globalization plays a major role in inducing overweight and obesity in developing countries, but robust quantitative evidence is scarce. We undertook extensive econometric analyses of several datasets, using a series of new proxies for different dimensions of globalization potentially affecting overweight in up to 887,000 women aged 15–49 living in 56 countries between 1991 and 2009. After controlling for relevant individual and country level factors, globalization as a whole is substantially and significantly associated with an increase in the individual propensity to be overweight among women. Surprisingly, political and social globalization dominate the influence of the economic dimension. Hence, more consideration needs to be given to the forms of governance required to shape a more health-oriented globalization process. PMID:25841097

Can One Undergraduate Course Increase Cross-Cultural Competence?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spitzer, Lois

2015-01-01

The majority of students who took this general education undergraduate course in developing cross-cultural understanding at a state college in the northeastern United States reported that their level of cross-cultural competence and global awareness increased by the end of the course. The primary course objective was to help students better…

Factors Affecting the Quality of Engineering Education in the Four Largest Emerging Economies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loyalka, Prashant; Carnoy, Martin; Froumin, Isak; Dossani, Raffiq; Tilak, J. B.; Yang, Po

2014-01-01

A huge increase in engineering graduates from the BRIC countries in recent decades potentially threatens the competitiveness of developed countries in producing high value-added products and services, while also holding great promise for substantially increasing the level of global basic and applied innovation. The key question is whether the…

Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage.

PubMed

Kopp, Robert E; Simons, Frederik J; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Maloof, Adam C; Oppenheimer, Michael

2009-12-17

With polar temperatures approximately 3-5 degrees C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (approximately 125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1-2 degrees C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (>or=-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr(-1) but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr(-1). Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.

Longitudinal changes in physical self-perceptions and associations with physical activity during adolescence.

PubMed

Inchley, Jo; Kirby, Jo; Currie, Candace

2011-05-01

The purpose of this study was to examine adolescents' physical self-perceptions and their associations with physical activity using a longitudinal perspective. Utilizing data from the Physical Activity in Scottish Schoolchildren (PASS) study, changes in exercise self-efficacy, perceived competence, global self-esteem and physical self-worth were assessed among a sample of 641 Scottish adolescents from age 11-15 years. Girls reported lower levels of perceived competence, self-esteem and physical self-worth than boys at each age. Furthermore, girls' physical self-perceptions decreased markedly over time. Among boys, only perceived competence decreased, while global self-esteem increased. Baseline physical activity was a significant predictor of later activity levels for both genders. Findings demonstrate the importance of physical self-perceptions in relation to physical activity behavior among adolescents. Among older boys, high perceived competence increased the odds of being active by 3.8 times. Among older girls, high exercise self-efficacy increased the odds of being active by 5.2 times. There is a need for early interventions which promote increased physical literacy and confidence, particularly among girls.

How Can Urban Policies Improve Air Quality and Help Mitigate Global Climate Change: a Systematic Mapping Review.

PubMed

Slovic, Anne Dorothée; de Oliveira, Maria Aparecida; Biehl, João; Ribeiro, Helena

2016-02-01

Tackling climate change at the global level is central to a growing field of scientific research on topics such as environmental health, disease burden, and its resulting economic impacts. At the local level, cities constitute an important hub of atmospheric pollution due to the large amount of pollutants that they emit. As the world population shifts to urban centers, cities will increasingly concentrate more exposed populations. Yet, there is still significant progress to be made in understanding the contribution of urban pollutants other than CO2, such as vehicle emissions, to global climate change. It is therefore particularly important to study how local governments are managing urban air pollution. This paper presents an overview of local air pollution control policies and programs that aim to reduce air pollution levels in megacities. It also presents evidence measuring their efficacy. The paper argues that local air pollution policies are not only beneficial for cities but are also important for mitigating and adapting to global climate change. The results systematize several policy approaches used around the world and suggest the need for more in-depth cross-city studies with the potential to highlight best practices both locally and globally. Finally, it calls for the inclusion of a more human rights-based approach as a mean of guaranteeing of clean air for all and reducing factors that exacerbate climate change.

Prediction and explanation of increases of mean sea levels in northern hemisphere, in southern hemisphere and all ocean of the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkin, Yu. V.

2009-04-01

The phenomenon of contrast secular changes of sea levels in the southern and northern hemispheres, predicted on the basis of geodynamic model about the forced relative oscillations and displacements of the Earth shells, has obtained theoretical explanation. In northern hemisphere the mean sea level of ocean increases with velocity about 2.45±0.32 mm/yr, and in a southern hemisphere the mean sea level increases with velocity about 0.67±0.30 mm/yr. Theoretical values of velocity of increase of global mean sea level thus has been estimated in 1.61±0.36 mm/yr. 1 Introduction. The slow (secular) drift of the centre of mass of the Earth in the direction of North Pole with velocity about 12-20 mm/yr has been predicted by author in 1995, and now has confirmed with methods of space geodesy. The DORIS data in period 1999-2008 let us to estimate velocity of polar drift in 5.24 ± 0.29 mm/yr. To explain this fundamental planetary phenomenon it is possible only, having admitted, that similar northern drift tests the centre of mass of the liquid core relatively to the centre of mass of viscous-elastic and thermodynamically changeable mantle with velocity about 2-3 cm/yr [1]. Naturally, a drift of the core is accompanied by the global changes (deformations) of all layers of the mantle and the core, by inversion changes of their tension states when in one hemisphere the tension increases and opposite on the contrary - decreases. Also it is possible that thermodynamical mechanism actively works with inversion properties of molting and solidification of materials at core-mantle boundary in opposite (northern - southern) hemispheres. 2 Atmospheric and oceanic inversion tides. The gravitational attraction of superfluous mass of the drifting to the North core (in 17 masses of the Moon) causes a planetary inversion tide of air masses of the Earth and its oceanic masses, from the southern hemisphere - to the northern hemisphere [2, 3]. As consequence the phenomenon of increasing of bottom pressure in the northern ocean must be observed, and in the southern ocean - decreasing. By our theoretical estimations the mean atmospheric pressure in the northern hemisphere accrues with velocity about 0.17 mbar/yr and with similar negative velocity in southern hemisphere. The predicted phenomenon of a slow redistribution of air masses from the southern hemisphere in northern has already obtained a partially confirmation according to the meteorological observations [4]: 0.17-0.22 mbar/yr (northern hemisphere) and -0.18 mbar/yr (southern hemisphere). In the report the mechanisms of the revealed phenomena, their dynamic interrelation are discussed and an possible interpretation to the data of observations is given. 3 Contrast changes of mean sea levels in northern and southern hemispheres. The air masses slowly are transported from a southern hemisphere in northern. They form an original inversion secular atmospheric tide which existence proves to be true by the modern data of observations [4]. The gravitational attraction of the core which is displaced along a polar axis causes the similar tide of oceanic masses [2]. The barometric effect of influence of atmospheric tide will result in reduction of expected secular oceanic tide. Really, an increase of mean atmospheric pressure in the northern hemisphere results in replacement of oceanic masses in the southern hemisphere. Only for this reason the mean sea level in the northern hemisphere decreases with secular velocity -1.98 mm/yr. In turn a decrease of atmospheric pressure in the southern hemisphere results in an increase of the mean sea level in this hemisphere with velocity 1.43 mm/yr. Preliminary estimations have shown, that a oceanic inversion tide, caused by a gravitational attraction of the drifting core, gives the basic contribution to the phenomenon of secular variation of the mean sea level in N and S hemispheres (in northern hemisphere the mean sea level increases with velocity 3.01±0.17 mm/yr and in the southern hemisphere it decreases with velocity -2.18±0.12 mm/yr). Taking into account now both described phenomena, we come to a conclusion, that velocity of increase of the mean sea level in northern hemisphere makes 1.03 mm/yr. The velocity of decrease of the sea level in the southern hemisphere (because of influence of the specified two factors) is estimated in -0.75 mm/yr. On the sea level the slow deformation changes of a bottom of the ocean render the essential influence. This tectonic phenomenon is connected with global (planetary) changes of shapes of hemispheres of the Earth. The last have been predicted and described on the basis of developed geodynamic model and revealed by methods of space geodesy (Barkin, Jin, 2007). On the basis of these results the estimation of velocity of increase of the mean sea level because of deformations of ocean bottom in 0.55±0.26 mm/yr has been obtained. An analysis has shown that thermal factors play big role in secular change of sea level (global and in hemispheres). Here we will accept conclusions of the last years that due to a heating of ocean layers and their expansion and due to melting of glaciers and other contributions of water masses in ocean its mean sea level rises with velocity about 0.83 mm/yr. Summarizing now all considered factors of increase of the sea level, we come to the important conclusion. In northern hemisphere the mean sea level of ocean increases with velocity about 2.45±0.32 mm/yr, and in a southern hemisphere the mean sea level increases with velocity about 0.67±0.30 mm/yr. Theoretical values of velocity of increase of global mean sea level of ocean thus has been estimated in 1.61±0.36 mm/yr. Observations on the coastal guage stations confirm these theoretical values. 4 Explanation of altimetry observations. An altimetry mehod can not give obtained above values of velocities of increasing of mean sea levels in northern and in southern hemispheres and of course and real value for global change. The reason consists that altimetry determinations include additional effect, we shall name it is fictitious, which is caused by secular drift of the centre of mass of the Earth to the North with velocity 5.24±0.29 mm/yr. It is uneasy to show, that only one effect of drift of the centre of mass results in fictitious effect of decreasing of mean sea level in northern hemisphere with velocity -2.37±0.13 mm/yr and to increasing of the mean sea level in a southern hemisphere with velocity 2.66±0.15 mm/yr, and also to effect of increase of mean global sea level with velocity 0.54±0.03 mm/yr. And the specified effects would take a place in observations even if the real sea level would not vary at all. But we shall add real values of velocities obtained above to fictitious and we shall obtain, accordingly, the values of velocities which can be obtained by altimetry method at scope by observations of all latitudes of ocean areas: 0.08 mm/yr for northern hemisphere; 3.33±0.30 mm/yr for southern hemisphere and 2.15 ±0.39 mm/yr for a global level of ocean. But they have not any relation to real characteristics of change of sea levels in northern and southern hemispheres of the Earth and to its global secular change. Real values of N-S-G velocities of increase of mean sea levels in northern hemisphere, in a southern hemisphere and all ocean make: 2.45±0.32 mm/yr, 0.67±0.30 mm/yr and 1.61±0.36 mm/yr. The offered model and theoretical constructions allow to explain and to understand more deeply the most difficult effects in behavior of ocean in northern and southern hemispheres of the Earth. The obtained values of velocities of change of mean N-S-G sea levels have been obtained at set of simplifying assumptions concerning of a direction of drift of the centre of mass of the Earth and character of redistribution of atmospheric and oceanic masses and, naturally, in the future will be specified. The work was accepted by grants of RFBR: N 07-05-00939 and N 09-05-92507. References [1] Barkin Yu.V. (2002) An explanation of endogenous activity of planets and satellites and its cyclisity, Isvestia sekcii nauk o Zemle Rossiiskoi akademii ectestvennykh nauk, Vyp. 9, M., VINITI, 45-97. In Russian. [2] Barkin Yu.V. (2005) Oscillations of the Earth core, new oceanic tides and dynamical consequences. Materials of XI International Scientific Conference "Structure, geodynamics and mineral genetic processes in lithosphere" (September, 20-22 2005, Syktyvkar, Russia), Publisher of Geology Institute of Komi SC of Ural Section of RAS, Syktyvkar, pp. 26-28. In Russian. [3] Barkin Yu.V. (2007) Forced redistribution of air masses between southern and northern hemispheres of the Earth. Proceedings of IUGG XXIV General Assembly, Perugia, Italy 2007: Earth: Our Changing Planet (Perugia, Italy, July 2-13, 2007), (A)-IAGA, JAS008, p. 326. www. iugg2007perugia.it. [4] Burlutsky R.F. Determination of the global concentration of pair on the ground pressure. Materials of Sagitov's readings. M., SAI, MSU, 2007, www.sai.msu.ru.

Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najibi, Nasser; Devineni, Naresh

2018-06-01

Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985-2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1-7, moderate: 8-20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections. While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors.

Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Von Schuckmann, Karina; Beerling, David J.; Cao, Junji; Marcott, Shaun; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Prather, Michael J.; Rohling, Eelco J.;

Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; von Schuckmann, Karina; Beerling, David J.; Cao, Junji; Marcott, Shaun; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Prather, Michael J.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Shakun, Jeremy; Smith, Pete; Lacis, Andrew; Russell, Gary; Ruedy, Reto

2017-07-01

Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880-1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 °C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6-9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require negative emissions, i.e., extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO2 extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89-535 trillion this century and also have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both.

Multidecadal Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation Induces an Increasing Northern Indian Ocean Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swapna, P.; Jyoti, J.; Krishnan, R.; Sandeep, N.; Griffies, S. M.

2017-10-01

North Indian Ocean sea level has shown significant increase during last three to four decades. Analyses of long-term climate data sets and ocean model sensitivity experiments identify a mechanism for multidecadal sea level variability relative to global mean. Our results indicate that North Indian Ocean sea level rise is accompanied by a weakening summer monsoon circulation. Given that Indian Ocean meridional heat transport is primarily regulated by the annual cycle of monsoon winds, weakening of summer monsoon circulation has resulted in reduced upwelling off Arabia and Somalia and decreased southward heat transport, and corresponding increase of heat storage in the North Indian Ocean. These changes in turn lead to increased retention of heat and increased thermosteric sea level rise in the North Indian Ocean, especially in the Arabian Sea. These findings imply that rising North Indian Ocean sea level due to weakening of monsoon circulation demands adaptive strategies to enable a resilient South Asian population.

A model of water and sediment balance as determinants of relative sea level rise in contemporary and future deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Zachary D.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Overeem, Irina; Syvitski, James P. M.

2018-03-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for human and for natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea level rise across 46 global deltas. We model scenarios of contemporary and future water resource management schemes and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea level rise in delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea level rise result in delta relative sea level rise rates that average 6.8 mm/y. Assessment of impacts of planned and under-construction dams on relative sea level rise rates suggests increases on the order of 1 mm/y in deltas with new upstream construction. Sediment fluxes are estimated to decrease by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas caused by increased river channelization and management has a larger impact, increasing relative sea level rise on average by nearly 2 mm/y. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Local and regional strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea level rise.

Phosphatase Rtr1 Regulates Global Levels of Serine 5 RNA Polymerase II C-Terminal Domain Phosphorylation and Cotranscriptional Histone Methylation.

PubMed

Hunter, Gerald O; Fox, Melanie J; Smith-Kinnaman, Whitney R; Gogol, Madelaine; Fleharty, Brian; Mosley, Amber L

2016-09-01

In eukaryotes, the C-terminal domain (CTD) of Rpb1 contains a heptapeptide repeat sequence of (Y1S2P3T4S5P6S7)n that undergoes reversible phosphorylation through the opposing action of kinases and phosphatases. Rtr1 is a conserved protein that colocalizes with RNA polymerase II (RNAPII) and has been shown to be important for the transition from elongation to termination during transcription by removing RNAPII CTD serine 5 phosphorylation (Ser5-P) at a selection of target genes. In this study, we show that Rtr1 is a global regulator of the CTD code with deletion of RTR1 causing genome-wide changes in Ser5-P CTD phosphorylation and cotranscriptional histone H3 lysine 36 trimethylation (H3K36me3). Using chromatin immunoprecipitation and high-resolution microarrays, we show that RTR1 deletion results in global changes in RNAPII Ser5-P levels on genes with different lengths and transcription rates consistent with its role as a CTD phosphatase. Although Ser5-P levels increase, the overall occupancy of RNAPII either decreases or stays the same in the absence of RTR1 Additionally, the loss of Rtr1 in vivo leads to increases in H3K36me3 levels genome-wide, while total histone H3 levels remain relatively constant within coding regions. Overall, these findings suggest that Rtr1 regulates H3K36me3 levels through changes in the number of binding sites for the histone methyltransferase Set2, thereby influencing both the CTD and histone codes. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Affective, Normative, and Continuance Commitment Levels across Cultures: A Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyer, John P.; Stanley, David J.; Jackson, Timothy A.; McInnis, Kate J.; Maltin, Elyse R.; Sheppard, Leah

2012-01-01

With increasing globalization of business and diversity within the workplace, there has been growing interest in cultural differences in employee commitment. We used meta-analysis to compute mean levels of affective (AC; K=966, N=433,129), continuance (CC; K=428, N=199,831), and normative (NC; K=336, N=133,277) organizational commitment for as…

A Study of the Innovation, Creativity, and Leadership Skills Associated with the College-Level Millennial Generation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lester, Melinda

2011-01-01

As the economy has become increasingly global, organizations whose employees are more creative and innovative compete at a higher level than those who do not. And, organizations that incorporate multi-generations into their workforce will realize more creativity and innovation within their organizations. Now, and in the future, leaders will…

Developing Skills for Employability at the Secondary Level: Effective Models for Asia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jayaram, Shubha; Engmann, Michelle

2014-01-01

Globally, enormous gains have been made towards the goal of universal primary education, leading to increased demands for secondary education. Consequently, more youth and young adults are now entering the formal and informal labour markets from the secondary level, which makes it important to ensure that secondary schools teach skills relevant to…

Gilles Apap's Mozart Cadenza and Expanding Musical Competences of Twenty-First-Century Musicians and Music Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webb, Michael

2008-01-01

In western musical contexts at global and local levels, musicians are becoming increasingly involved in what might be termed multicode music making and are expanding their musical competences. In this article I consider the practical and cognitive implications of such an expanding of competences for music education at various levels. Combining…

Globalization and the marginalization of unskilled labor: potential impacts on health in developed nations.

PubMed

Ostry, Aleck Samuel

2009-01-01

The objective of this investigation was to determine the impacts of economic globalization on labor markets and outline potential pathways for these changes to affect health status in industrialized nations. A systematic review of the economic globalization and health literature revealed that, under the impact of globalization and market deregulation, the past 25 years have witnessed de-industrialization, shifts to nontraditional, insecure work arrangements, and relatively high levels of unemployment in most developed nations. This has occurred in the context of hypermobility of capital, relative immobility of labor, and declining market position for unskilled labor. Such structural changes in the labor markets in conjunction with shifts in educational opportunities and requirements have resulted in the increasing marginalization of unskilled workers from the labor market. Aside from direct effects on health due to the threat and experience of unemployment, and given that income inequality within nations is a main driver of national health status, lowered relative wages for the unskilled will probably affect national health status through increased income inequality.

Modeling Anthropogenic Impact on Sediment Balance and Relative Sea-Level Rise in Contemporary and Future Deltas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Overeem, I.; Syvitski, J. P.

2017-12-01

Modern deltas are dependent on human-mediated freshwater and sediment fluxes. Changes to these fluxes impact delta biogeophysical functioning, and affect the long-term sustainability of these landscapes for both human and natural systems. Here we present contemporary estimates of long-term mean sediment balance and relative sea-level rise across 46 global deltas. We model ongoing development and scenarios of future water resource management and hydropower infrastructure in upstream river basins to explore how changing sediment fluxes impact relative sea-level in coastal delta systems. Model results show that contemporary sediment fluxes, anthropogenic drivers of land subsidence, and sea-level rise result in relative sea-level rise rates in deltas that average 6.8 mm/year. Currently planned or under-construction dams can be expected to increase rates of relative sea-level rise on the order of 1 mm/year. Some deltas systems, including the Magdalena, Orinoco, and Indus, are highly sensitive to future impoundment of river basins, with RSLR rates increasing up to 4 mm/year in a high-hydropower-utilization scenario. Sediment fluxes may be reduced by up to 60% in the Danube and 21% in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Megnha if all currently planned dams are constructed. Reduced sediment retention on deltas due to increased river channelization and local flood controls increases RSLR on average by nearly 2 mm/year. Long-term delta sustainability requires a more complete understanding of how geophysical and anthropogenic change impact delta geomorphology. Strategies for sustainable delta management that focus on local and regional drivers of change, especially groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and upstream dam construction, can be highly impactful even in the context of global climate-induced sea-level rise.

The Immediacy of Arctic Change: New 2016-17 Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overland, J. E.; Kattsov, V.; Olsen, M. S.; Walsh, J. E.

2017-12-01

Additional recent observations add increased certainty to cryospheric Arctic changes, and trends are very likely to continue past mid-century. Observed and projected Arctic changes are large compared with those at mid-latitude, driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) increase and Arctic feedbacks. Sea ice has undergone a regime shift from mostly multi-year to first-year sea ice, and summer sea ice is likely to be esentially gone within the next few decades. Spring snow cover is decreasing, and Arctic greening is increasing, although somewhat variable. There are potential emerging impacts of Arctic change on mid-latitude weather and sea level rise. Model assessments under different future GHG concentration scenarios show that stabilizing global temperatures near 2° C compliant with Paris agreement could slow, but not halt further major changes in the Arctic before mid- 21st century; foreseeable Arctic temperature changes are 4-5° C for fall/winter by 2040-2050. Substantial and immediate mitigation reductions in GHG emissions (at least at the level of the RCP 4.5 emission scenario) should reduce the risk of further change for most cryospheric components after mid-century, and reduce the likelyhood of potential runaway loss of ice sheets and glaciers and their impact on sea level rise. Extreme winter 2016 Arctic temperatures and a large winter 2017 sea ice deficit demonstrate contemporary climate states outside the envelope of previous experience. While there is confidence in the sign of Arctic changes, recent observations increase uncertainty in projecting the rate for future real world scenarios. Do events return to mean conditions, represent irreversible changes, or contribute to accelerating trends beyond those provided by climate models? Such questions highlight the need for improved quantitative prediction of the cryosphere and its global impacts, crucial for adaptation actions and risk management at local to global scales.

Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.

1980-01-01

Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. This feedback mechanism has been explored with the use of a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by the calculation of the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane.

ERBB-Receptors and Drug Response in Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-09-01

in topoisomerase II a (topo II a ) levels seen may be understood by global changes in DNA repair enzymes, brought about by signaling through the EGFR...ErbB-mediated signaling and topoisomerase II a levels specifically as they relate to drug sensitivity/resistance. This information will allow the use...topoisomerase II a levels and increased sensitivity to doxorubicin. In order to determine which, if any, of the specific receptors involved are

Active listening in medical consultations: development of the Active Listening Observation Scale (ALOS-global).

PubMed

Fassaert, Thijs; van Dulmen, Sandra; Schellevis, François; Bensing, Jozien

2007-11-01

Active listening is a prerequisite for a successful healthcare encounter, bearing potential therapeutic value especially in clinical situations that require no specific medical intervention. Although generally acknowledged as such, active listening has not been studied in depth. This paper describes the development of the Active Listening Observation Scale (ALOS-global), an observation instrument measuring active listening and its validation in a sample of general practice consultations for minor ailments. Five hundred and twenty-four videotaped general practice consultations involving minor ailments were observed with the ALOS-global. Hypotheses were tested to determine validity, incorporating patients' perception of GPs' affective performance, GPs' verbal attention, patients' self-reported anxiety level and gender differences. The final 7-item ALOS-global had acceptable inter- and intra-observer agreement. Factor analysis revealed one homogeneous dimension. The scalescore was positively related to verbal attention measured by RIAS, to patients' perception of GPs' performance and to their pre-visit anxiety level. Female GPs received higher active listening scores. The results of this study are promising concerning the psychometric properties of the ALOS-global. More research is needed to confirm these preliminary findings. After establishing how active listening differentiates between health professionals, the ALOS-global may become a valuable tool in feedback and training aimed at increasing listening skills.

Human impacts and changes in the coastal waters of south China.

PubMed

Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Bi, Hongsheng; Mao, Xian-Zhong

2016-08-15

Human impact on the environment remains at the center of the debate on global environmental change. Using the Hong Kong-Shenzhen corridor in south China as an example, we present evidence that rapid urbanization and economic development in coastal areas were the dominant factors causing rapid changes in coastal waters. From 1990 to 2012, coastal seawater temperature increased ~0.060°C per year, sea level rose 4.4mm per year and pH decreased from 8.2 to 7.7, much faster than global averages. In the same period, there were exponential increases in the local population, gross domestic product and land fill area. Empirical analyses suggest that the large increase in the population affected local temperature, and economic development had a major impact on local pH. Results also show that pH and temperature were significantly correlated with local sea level rise, but pH had more predictive power, suggesting it could be considered a predictor for changes in local sea level. We conclude that human activities could significantly exacerbate local environmental changes which should be considered in predictive models and future development plans in coastal areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring accessibility of sustainable transportation using space syntax in Bojonggede area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryawinata, B. A.; Mariana, Y.; Wijaksono, S.

2017-12-01

Changes in the physical structure of regional space as a result of the increase of planned and unplanned settlements in the Bojonggede area have an impact on the road network pattern system. Changes in road network patterns will have an impact on the permeability of the area. Permeability measures the extent to which road network patterns provide an option in traveling. If the permeability increases the travel distance decreases and the route of travel choice increases, permeability like this can create an easy access system and physically integrated. This study aims to identify the relationship of physical characteristics of residential area and road network pattern to the level of space permeability in Bojonggede area. By conducting this research can be a reference for the arrangement of circulation, accessibility, and land use in the vicinity of Bojonggede. This research uses quantitative method and space syntax method to see global integration and local integration on the region which become the parameter of permeability level. The results showed that the level of permeability globally and locally high in Bojonggede physical area is the physical characteristics of the area that has a grid pattern of road network grid.

The global financial crisis and Australian general practice.

PubMed

McRae, Ian S; Paolucci, Francesco

2011-02-01

To explore the potential effects of the global financial crisis (GFC) on the market for general practitioner (GP) services in Australia. We estimate the impact of changes in unemployment rates on demand for GP services and the impact of lost asset values on GP retirement plans and work patterns. Combining these supply and demand effects, we estimate the potential effect of the GFC on the market for GP services under various scenarios. If deferral of retirement increases GP availability by 2%, and historic trends to reduce GP working hours are halved, at the current level of ~5.2% unemployment average fees would decline by $0.23 per GP consultation and volumes of GP services would rise by 2.53% with almost no change in average GP gross earnings over what would otherwise have occurred. With 8.5% unemployment, as initially predicted by Treasury, GP fees would increase by $0.91 and GP income by nearly 3%. The GFC is likely to increase activity in the GP market and potentially to reduce fee levels relative to the pre-GFC trends. Net effects on average GP incomes are likely to be small at current unemployment levels.

A comparative analysis of the Global Land Cover 2000 and MODIS land cover data sets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giri, C.; Zhu, Z.; Reed, B.

2005-01-01

Accurate and up-to-date global land cover data sets are necessary for various global change research studies including climate change, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem assessment, and environmental modeling. In recent years, substantial advancement has been achieved in generating such data products. Yet, we are far from producing geospatially consistent high-quality data at an operational level. We compared the recently available Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC-2000) and MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) global land cover data to evaluate the similarities and differences in methodologies and results, and to identify areas of spatial agreement and disagreement. These two global land cover data sets were prepared using different data sources, classification systems, and methodologies, but using the same spatial resolution (i.e., 1 km) satellite data. Our analysis shows a general agreement at the class aggregate level except for savannas/shrublands, and wetlands. The disagreement, however, increases when comparing detailed land cover classes. Similarly, percent agreement between the two data sets was found to be highly variable among biomes. The identified areas of spatial agreement and disagreement will be useful for both data producers and users. Data producers may use the areas of spatial agreement for training area selection and pay special attention to areas of disagreement for further improvement in future land cover characterization and mapping. Users can conveniently use the findings in the areas of agreement, whereas users might need to verify the informaiton in the areas of disagreement with the help of secondary information. Learning from past experience and building on the existing infrastructure (e.g., regional networks), further research is necessary to (1) reduce ambiguity in land cover definitions, (2) increase availability of improved spatial, spectral, radiometric, and geometric resolution satellite data, and (3) develop advanced classification algorithms.

Shifts in nitrogen acquisition strategies enable enhanced terrestrial carbon storage under elevated CO2 in a global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Brzostek, E. R.; Menge, D.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.

2017-12-01

Earth System Model (ESM) projections of terrestrial carbon (C) uptake are critical to understanding the future of the global C cycle. Current ESMs include intricate representations of photosynthetic C fixation in plants, allowing them to simulate the stimulatory effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels on photosynthesis. However, they lack sophisticated representations of plant nutrient acquisition, calling into question their ability to project the future land C sink. We conducted simulations using a new model of terrestrial C and nitrogen (N) cycling within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global land model LM4 that uses a return on investment framework to simulate global patterns of N acquisition via fixation of N2 from the atmosphere, scavenging of inorganic N from soil solution, and mining of organic N from soil organic matter (SOM). We show that these strategies drive divergent C cycle responses to elevated CO2 at the ecosystem scale, with the scavenging strategy leading to N limitation of plant growth and the mining strategy facilitating stimulation of plant biomass accumulation over decadal time scales. In global simulations, shifts in N acquisition from inorganic N scavenging to organic N mining along with increases in N fixation supported long-term acceleration of C uptake under elevated CO2. Our results indicate that the ability of the land C sink to mitigate atmospheric CO2 levels is tightly coupled to the functional diversity of ecosystems and their capacity to change their N acquisition strategies over time. Incorporation of these mechanisms into ESMs is necessary to improve confidence in model projections of the global C cycle.

Bacterial sulfur disproportionation constrains timing of neoproterozoic oxygenation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kunzmann, Marcus; Bui, Thi Hao; Crockford, Peter W.; Halverson, Galen P.; Scott, Clinton T.; Lyons, Timothy W.; Wing, Boswell A.

2017-01-01

Various geochemical records suggest that atmospheric O2 increased in the Ediacaran (635–541 Ma), broadly coincident with the emergence and diversification of large animals and increasing marine ecosystem complexity. Furthermore, geochemical proxies indicate that seawater sulfate levels rose at this time too, which has been hypothesized to reflect increased sulfide oxidation in marine sediments caused by sediment mixing of the newly evolved macrofauna. However, the exact timing of oxygenation is not yet understood, and there are claims for significant oxygenation prior to the Ediacaran. Furthermore, recent evidence suggests that physical mixing of sediments did not become important until the late Silurian. Here we report a multiple sulfur isotope record from a ca. 835–630 Ma succession from Svalbard, further supported by data from Proterozoic strata in Canada, Australia, Russia, and the United States, in order to investigate the timing of oxygenation. We present isotopic evidence for onset of globally significant bacterial sulfur disproportionation and reoxidative sulfur cycling following the 635 Ma Marinoan glaciation. Widespread sulfide oxidation helps to explain the observed first-order increase in seawater sulfate concentration from the earliest Ediacaran to the Precambrian-Cambrian boundary by reducing the amount of sulfur buried as pyrite. Expansion of reoxidative sulfur cycling to a global scale also indicates increasing environmental O2 levels. Thus, our data suggest that increasing atmospheric O2 levels may have played a role in the emergence of the Ediacaran macrofauna and increasing marine ecosystem complexity.

Changes in Clouds Under a Combined CO2 Increase and Solar Decrease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russotto, R. D.; Ackerman, T. P.

2017-12-01

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) provides an excellent opportunity to study the response of clouds and the large-scale circulation to opposing solar and greenhouse gas forcings. This study analyzes changes in cloud fraction in 10 fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models in GeoMIP Experiment G1, in which CO2 concentrations are quadrupled and the solar constant is reduced in order to keep global mean temperature at preindustrial levels. There is general agreement among the models that the area coverage of low clouds (below the 680 hPa pressure level) decreases in this experiment compared to preindustrial conditions over most ocean and vegetated land areas. This reduction in low cloud fraction is related to decreases in boundary layer inversion strength over the ocean, and to plant physiological responses to increased CO2. Mid-level clouds (680-440 hPa) and high clouds (< 440 hPa) are reduced over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans to the north and south of the ITCZ, while high clouds also increase over the center of the ITCZ. These changes are related to a weakening of the seasonal migration of the ITCZ in G1, which happens because the summer hemisphere is preferentially cooled by the solar reduction. To explore the link between clouds and the ITCZ migration, we examine changes in the seasonal cycle of cloud cover and in the instantaneous ITCZ width throughout the year. High cloud fraction increases in the global mean in most models, likely due to upper tropospheric cooling. An analysis of radiative effects using the Approximate Partial Radiation Perturbation method shows that, in the shortwave, cloud changes in G1 have a warming effect in most areas, mainly due to the reduction in low cloud fraction. This effect, along with the warming effect from the increase in high clouds, results in a larger solar reduction being necessary to compensate for the CO2 increase.

Sapfluxnet: a global database of sap flow measurements to unravel the ecological factors of transpiration regulation in woody plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poyatos, Rafael; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Molowny-Horas, Roberto; Steppe, Kathy; Oren, Ram; Katul, Gabriel; Mahecha, Miguel

2016-04-01

Plant transpiration is one of the main components of the global water cycle, it controls land energy balance, determines catchment hydrological responses and exerts strong feedbacks on regional and global climate. At the same time, plant productivity, growth and survival are severely constrained by water availability, which is expected to decline in many areas of the world because of global-change driven increases in drought conditions. While global surveys of drought tolerance traits at the organ level are rapidly increasing our knowledge of the diversity in plant functional strategies to cope with drought stress, a whole-plant perspective of drought vulnerability is still lacking. Sap flow measurements using thermal methods have now been applied to measure seasonal patterns in water use and the response of transpiration to environmental drivers across hundreds of species of woody plants worldwide, covering a wide range of climates, soils and stand structural characteristics. Here, we present the first effort to build a global database of sub-daily, tree-level sap flow (SAPFLUXNET) that will be used to improve our understanding of physiological and structural determinants of plant transpiration and to further investigate the role of vegetation in controlling global water balance. We already have the expression of interest of data contributors representing >115 globally distributed sites, > 185 species and > 700 trees, measured over at least one growing season. However, the potential number of available sites and species is probably much higher given that > 2500 sap flow-related papers have been identified in a Scopus literature search conducted in November 2015. We will give an overview of how data collection, harmonisation and quality control procedures are implemented within the project. We will also discuss potential analytical strategies to synthesize hydroclimatic controls on sap flow into biologically meaningful traits related to whole-plant transpiration regulation and hydraulic status. SAPFLUXNET will lead to the first comprehensive study of the ecological drivers of tree-level transpiration across the globe and will aid to constrain the empirical upscaling between plant traits and ecosystem function. Finally, we anticipate that, once SAPFLUXNET is populated with sufficient observations, it will complement existing ecological networks like FLUXNET and it will also contribute to the evaluation of Earth-system models.

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption.

PubMed

Dobermann, Achim; Cassman, Kenneth G

2005-09-01

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However, large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (-0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm-or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikely to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world's most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption.

PubMed

Dobermann, Achim; Cassman, Kenneth G

2005-12-01

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However, large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (-0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm- or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikey to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world's most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.

Epigenetic Reprogramming Strategies to Reverse Global Loss of 5-Hydroxymethylcytosine, a Prognostic Factor for Poor Survival in High-grade Serous Ovarian Cancer

PubMed Central

Tucker, Douglass W.; Getchell, Christopher R.; McCarthy, Eric T.; Ohman, Anders W.; Sasamoto, Naoko; Xu, Shuyun; Ko, Joo Yeon; Gupta, Mamta; Shafrir, Amy; Medina, Jamie E.; Lee, Jonathan J.; MacDonald, Lauren A.; Malik, Ammara; Hasselblatt, Kathleen T; Li, Wenjing; Zhang, Hong; Kaplan, Samuel J.; Murphy, George F.; Hirsch, Michelle S.; Liu, Joyce F.; Matulonis, Ursula A.; Terry, Kathryn L.; Lian, Christine G.; Dinulescu, Daniela M.

2018-01-01

Purpose A major challenge in platinum-based cancer therapy is the clinical management of chemoresistant tumors, which have a largely unknown pathogenesis at the level of epigenetic regulation. Experimental Design We evaluated the potential of using global loss of 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5-hmC) levels as a novel diagnostic and prognostic epigenetic marker to better assess platinum-based chemotherapy response and clinical outcome in high-grade serous tumors (HGSOC), the most common and deadliest subtype of ovarian cancer. Furthermore, we identified a targetable pathway to reverse these epigenetic changes, both genetically and pharmacologically. Results This study shows that decreased 5-hmC levels are an epigenetic hallmark for malignancy and tumor progression in HGSOC. In addition, global 5-hmC loss is associated with a decreased response to platinum-based chemotherapy, shorter time to relapse, and poor overall survival in patients newly diagnosed with HGSOC. Interestingly, the rescue of 5-hmC loss restores sensitivity to platinum chemotherapy in vitro and in vivo, decreases the percentage of tumor cells with cancer stem cell markers, and increases overall survival in an aggressive animal model of platinum-resistant disease. Conclusions Consequently, a global analysis of patient 5-hmC levels should be included in future clinical trials, which use pretreatment with epigenetic adjuvants to elevate 5-hmC levels and improve the efficacy of current chemotherapies. Identifying prognostic epigenetic markers and altering chemotherapeutic regimens to incorporate DNMTi pretreatment in tumors with low 5-hmC levels could have important clinical implications for newly diagnosed HGSOC disease. PMID:29263182

Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change.

PubMed

Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.

Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change

PubMed Central

Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina; Hanasaki, Naota; Konzmann, Markus; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Schewe, Jacob; Stacke, Tobias; Tessler, Zachary D.; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e.g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future. PMID:24344275

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

PubMed

Mimura, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

Assessing the Impact of Vertical Land Motion on Twentieth Century Global Mean Sea Level Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamlington, B. D.; Thompson, P.; Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.; Ray, R. D.

2016-01-01

Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does not correct other sources of VLM that remain in the tide gauge record. Here we compare Global Positioning System (GPS) VLM estimates at the tide gauge locations to VLM estimates from GIA models, and assess the influence of non-GIA-related VLM on GMSL estimates. We find that the tide gauges, on average, are experiencing positive VLM (i.e., uplift) after removing the known effect of GIA, resulting in an increase of 0.2460.08 mm yr21 in GMSL trend estimates from 1900 to present when using GPS-based corrections. While this result is likely dependent on the subset of tide gauges used and the actual corrections used, it does suggest that non-GIA VLM plays a significant role in twentieth century estimates of GMSL. Given the relatively short GPS records used to obtain these VLM estimates, we also estimate the uncertainty in the GMSL trend that results from limited knowledge of non-GIA-related VLM.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Martin, Maria A.; Frieler, Katja

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea-level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500, show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario.

UPDATE ON THE GLOBAL BURDEN OF ISCHAEMIC AND HAEMORRHAGIC STROKE IN 1990–2013: THE GBD 2013 STUDY

PubMed Central

Feigin, Valery L.; Krishnamurthi, Rita; Parmar, Priya; Norrving, Bo; Mensah, George A.; Bennett, Derrick A.; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Moran, Andrew; Sacco, Ralph L.; Truelsen, Thomas; Davis, Stephen; Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai; Naghavi, Mohsen; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Nguyen, Grant; Johnson, Catherine O.; Vos, Theo; Meretoja, Atte; Murray, Christopher; Roth, Gregory A.; Thrift, Amanda; Banerjee, Amitava; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Misganaw, Awoke; Kissela, Brett M.; Wolfe, Charles; Yu, Chuanhua; Anderson, Craig; Kim, Daniel; Rojas-Rueda, David; Tanne, David; Tirschwell, David Lawrence; Nand, Devina; Kazi, Dhruv S.; Pourmalek, Farshad; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Abd-Allah, Foad; Gankpé, Fortuné; deVeber, Gabrielle; Donnan, Geoffrey; Hankey, Graeme J.; Christensen, Hanne K.; Campos-Nonato, Ismael; Shiue, Ivy; Fernandes, Jefferson G.; Jonas, Jost B.; Sheth, Kevin; Kim, Yunjin; Dokova, Klara; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Sposato, Luciano A.; Bahit, Maria Cecilia; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Mackay, Mark T.; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Endres, Matthias; Giroud, Maurice; Brainin, Michael; Kravchenko, Michael; Piradov, Michael; Soljak, Michael; Liu, Ming; Connor, Myles; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Bornstein, Natan; Shamalov, Nikolay; Roy, Nobhojit; Cabral, Norberto; Beauchamp, Norman J.; Lavados, Pablo M.; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Sahathevan, Ramesh; Hamadeh, Randah R.; Malekzadeh, Reza; Gillium, Richard; Westerman, Ronny; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Salman, Rustam Al-Shahi; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Basu, Sanjay; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Kosen, Soewarta; Sampson, Uchechukwu K. A.; Caso, Valeria; Vlassov, Vasiliy; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Kokubo, Yoshiohiro; Shinohara, Yukito; Varakin, Yuri; Wang, Wenzhi

2015-01-01

Background Global stroke epidemiology is changing rapidly. Although age-standardised rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past two decades, the absolute numbers of people who have a stroke every year, live with the consequences of stroke, and die from their stroke are increasing. Regular updates on the current level of stroke burden are important for advancing our knowledge on stroke epidemiology and facilitate organization and planning of evidence-based stroke care. Objectives To estimate incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs), and their trends for ischaemic stroke (IS) and haemorrhagic stroke (HS) for 188 countries from 1990–2013. Methodology Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated using all available data on mortality and stroke incidence, prevalence and excess mortality. Statistical models and country-level covariate data were employed and all rates were age-standardised to a global population. All estimated were produced with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Results In 2013, there were globally almost 25.7 million stroke survivors (71% with IS), 6.5 million deaths from stroke (51% died from IS), 113 million DALYs due to stroke (58% due to IS), and 10.3 million new strokes (67% IS). Over the 1990–2013 period, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of DALYs due to IS, and of deaths from IS and HS, survivors and incident events for both IS and HS. The preponderance of the burden of stroke continued to reside in developing countries, comprising 75.2% of deaths from stroke and 81.0% of stroke-related DALYs. Globally, the proportional contribution of stroke-related DALYs and deaths due to stroke compared to all diseases increased from 1990 (3.54% [95% UI 3.11–4.00%] and 9.66% [95% UI 8.47–10.70%]) to 2013 (4.62% [95% UI 4.01–5.30%] and 11.75% [95% UI 10.45–13.31%], respectively), but there was a diverging trend in developed and developing countries with a significant increase in DALYs and deaths in developing countries, and no measurable change in the proportional contribution of DALYs and deaths from stroke in developed countries. Conclusion Global stroke burden continues to increase globally. More efficient stroke prevention and management strategies are urgently needed to halt and eventually reverse the stroke pandemic, while universal access to organized stroke services should be a priority. PMID:26505981

Update on the Global Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke in 1990-2013: The GBD 2013 Study.

PubMed

Feigin, Valery L; Krishnamurthi, Rita V; Parmar, Priya; Norrving, Bo; Mensah, George A; Bennett, Derrick A; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Moran, Andrew E; Sacco, Ralph L; Truelsen, Thomas; Davis, Stephen; Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai; Naghavi, Mohsen; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Nguyen, Grant; Johnson, Catherine O; Vos, Theo; Meretoja, Atte; Murray, Christopher J L; Roth, Gregory A

2015-01-01

Global stroke epidemiology is changing rapidly. Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past 2 decades, the absolute numbers of people who have a stroke every year, and live with the consequences of stroke or die from their stroke, are increasing. Regular updates on the current level of stroke burden are important for advancing our knowledge on stroke epidemiology and facilitate organization and planning of evidence-based stroke care. This study aims to estimate incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated using all available data on mortality and stroke incidence, prevalence and excess mortality. Statistical models and country-level covariate data were employed, and all rates were age-standardized to a global population. All estimates were produced with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). In 2013, there were globally almost 25.7 million stroke survivors (71% with IS), 6.5 million deaths from stroke (51% died from IS), 113 million DALYs due to stroke (58% due to IS) and 10.3 million new strokes (67% IS). Over the 1990-2013 period, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of DALYs due to IS, and of deaths from IS and HS, survivors and incident events for both IS and HS. The preponderance of the burden of stroke continued to reside in developing countries, comprising 75.2% of deaths from stroke and 81.0% of stroke-related DALYs. Globally, the proportional contribution of stroke-related DALYs and deaths due to stroke compared to all diseases increased from 1990 (3.54% (95% UI 3.11-4.00) and 9.66% (95% UI 8.47-10.70), respectively) to 2013 (4.62% (95% UI 4.01-5.30) and 11.75% (95% UI 10.45-13.31), respectively), but there was a diverging trend in developed and developing countries with a significant increase in DALYs and deaths in developing countries, and no measurable change in the proportional contribution of DALYs and deaths from stroke in developed countries. Global stroke burden continues to increase globally. More efficient stroke prevention and management strategies are urgently needed to halt and eventually reverse the stroke pandemic, while universal access to organized stroke services should be a priority. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Ethics and allocation of health resources--the influence of poverty on health.

PubMed

Taipale, V

1999-01-01

Poverty and health are examined from the global and Nordic perspectives. The data from global social policy research, Nordic comparisons and equity in health research provide a basis for the discussion. At the global level the consequences of poverty are growing and the resultant problems posed are becoming increasingly evident. Poverty and sickness are interwoven; poverty aggravates mental problems, a situation regarding which we have seen steady deterioration. Research suggests that social cohesion, the factor that creates social capital and empowerment in societies, is a major factor that promotes health and the economy. Structural measures to combat poverty would require a global social policy: global redistribution, global regulation and global provision. However, the international community is not yet fully prepared for this discussion. At the Nordic level, Finland is a laboratory in which the viability of the welfare state has been tested in the worst recession ever to hit an OECD country. On the whole, it seems that income disparity has not grown during the recession and that services have functioned moderately well despite budget cuts. However, during that period the correlation between unemployment and sickness became apparent, and the challenges to healthcare more evident. We must make headway in untangling these relationships, because the tendency towards greater income disparity is growing in the post-recession boom. At the social welfare and health service level even the Nordic welfare states are not in full command of the means to alleviate poverty and its related health problems. Has the time come to dispel our Nordic arrogance and look at how the present services may in fact be generating inequity?

Management of Local Stressors Can Improve the Resilience of Marine Canopy Algae to Global Stressors

PubMed Central

Strain, Elisabeth M. A.; van Belzen, Jim; van Dalen, Jeroen; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Airoldi, Laura

2015-01-01

Coastal systems are increasingly threatened by multiple local anthropogenic and global climatic stressors. With the difficulties in remediating global stressors, management requires alternative approaches that focus on local scales. We used manipulative experiments to test whether reducing local stressors (sediment load and nutrient concentrations) can improve the resilience of foundation species (canopy algae along temperate rocky coastlines) to future projected global climate stressors (high wave exposure, increasing sea surface temperature), which are less amenable to management actions. We focused on Fucoids (Cystoseira barbata) along the north-western Adriatic coast in the Mediterranean Sea because of their ecological relevance, sensitivity to a variety of human impacts, and declared conservation priority. At current levels of sediment and nutrients, C. barbata showed negative responses to the simulated future scenarios of high wave exposure and increased sea surface temperature. However, reducing the sediment load increased the survival of C. barbata recruits by 90.24% at high wave exposure while reducing nutrient concentrations resulted in a 20.14% increase in the survival and enhanced the growth of recruited juveniles at high temperature. We conclude that improving water quality by reducing nutrient concentrations, and particularly the sediment load, would significantly increase the resilience of C. barbata populations to projected increases in climate stressors. Developing and applying appropriate targets for specific local anthropogenic stressors could be an effective management action to halt the severe and ongoing loss of key marine habitats. PMID:25807516

Rapid Adjustments Cause Weak Surface Temperature Response to Increased Black Carbon Concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stjern, Camilla Weum; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Myhre, Gunnar; Forster, Piers M.; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Andrews, Timothy; Boucher, Olivier; Faluvegi, Gregory; Iversen, Trond; Kasoar, Matthew; Kharin, Viatcheslav; Kirkevâg, Alf; Lamarque, Jean-François; Olivié, Dirk; Richardson, Thomas; Shawki, Dilshad; Shindell, Drew; Smith, Christopher J.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Voulgarakis, Apostolos

2017-11-01

We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by nine global coupled-climate models, producing a model median effective radiative forcing of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) W m-2, and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 W m-2 based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (-0.64 W m-2 for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low-level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher-level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small median global warming of 0.47 K per W m-2—about 20% lower than the response to a doubling of CO2. Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present-day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K.

The past and future of fish consumption: Can supplies meet healthy eating recommendations?

PubMed

Thurstan, Ruth H; Roberts, Callum M

2014-12-15

In many developed countries fish and shellfish are increasingly promoted as healthy alternatives to other animal protein. We analysed how much fish was available to UK and global populations after accounting for processing losses, and compared this to recommended levels of fish consumption. In 2012, UK domestic fish landings per capita fell 81% below the recommended intake, although declines were masked by increased imports and aquaculture from the 1970s onwards. Global wild fish supply per capita declined by 32% from its peak in 1970. However, overall fish supplies per capita increased by 10% over the same period due to rapidly expanding aquaculture production. Whilst aquaculture has so far prevented a downturn in global fish supplies, many developed nations continue to aspire to consume more fish than they produce. Until demand is balanced with sustainable methods of production governments should consider carefully the social and environmental implications of greater fish consumption. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, Ken

2015-01-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources. PMID:26601273

Combustion of available fossil-fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, R.; Levermann, A.; Ridgwell, A.; Caldeira, K.

2015-12-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 meters in global sea-level rise. Here we show in simulations with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil-fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil-fuel emissions of 10 000 GtC, Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 meters per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West- and East Antarctica results in a threshold-increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.

Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, Ken

2015-09-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.

Influence of blood lipids on global coagulation test results.

PubMed

Kim, Jung-Ah; Kim, Ji-Eun; Song, Sang Hoon; Kim, Hyun Kyung

2015-01-01

High levels of blood lipids have been associated with high levels of coagulation factors. We investigated whether blood lipids influence the results of global coagulation tests, including prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), and thrombin generation assay (TGA). PT, aPTT, and TGA, along with procoagulant and anticoagulant factors, were measured in 488 normal individuals. Vitamin K status was assessed with prothrombin-induced by vitamin K absence-II (PIVKA-II). The procoagulant factors II, VII, IX, X, and XI and anticoagulant factors protein C and protein S showed significant correlations with triglyceride, and the procoagulant factors II, V, VII, IX, X, XI, and XII and anticoagulant factors antithrombin and protein C correlated with total cholesterol. There were no correlations of blood lipid levels with PIVKA-II levels. Subjects with high triglyceride levels (≥200 mg/dL) showed shorter PT values than those with lower triglyceride levels. However, aPTT value was not changed in terms of blood lipid levels. In both 1 and 5 pM tissue factor-induced TGAs, subjects in the high-triglyceride or high-cholesterol groups (≥240 mg/dL) had high levels of lag time, time-to-peak, and endogenous thrombin potential. Total cholesterol was a significant determinant of PT and TGA values. High blood lipids were related with increased coagulation activity in a normal population. Our findings are expected to help interpret the global coagulation test results in individuals with high lipid levels.

Influence of Blood Lipids on Global Coagulation Test Results

PubMed Central

Kim, Jung-Ah; Kim, Ji-Eun; Song, Sang Hoon

2015-01-01

Background High levels of blood lipids have been associated with high levels of coagulation factors. We investigated whether blood lipids influence the results of global coagulation tests, including prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), and thrombin generation assay (TGA). Methods PT, aPTT, and TGA, along with procoagulant and anticoagulant factors, were measured in 488 normal individuals. Vitamin K status was assessed with prothrombin-induced by vitamin K absence-II (PIVKA-II). Results The procoagulant factors II, VII, IX, X, and XI and anticoagulant factors protein C and protein S showed significant correlations with triglyceride, and the procoagulant factors II, V, VII, IX, X, XI, and XII and anticoagulant factors antithrombin and protein C correlated with total cholesterol. There were no correlations of blood lipid levels with PIVKA-II levels. Subjects with high triglyceride levels (≥200 mg/dL) showed shorter PT values than those with lower triglyceride levels. However, aPTT value was not changed in terms of blood lipid levels. In both 1 and 5 pM tissue factor-induced TGAs, subjects in the high-triglyceride or high-cholesterol groups (≥240 mg/dL) had high levels of lag time, time-to-peak, and endogenous thrombin potential. Total cholesterol was a significant determinant of PT and TGA values. Conclusion High blood lipids were related with increased coagulation activity in a normal population. Our findings are expected to help interpret the global coagulation test results in individuals with high lipid levels. PMID:25553275

Contribution of vertical land motions to coastal sea level variations: a global synthesis of multisatellite altimetry, tide gauge and GPS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeffer, Julia; Allemand, Pascal

2016-04-01

Coastal sea level variations result from a complex mix of climatic, oceanic and geodynamical processes driven by natural and anthropogenic constraints. Combining data from multiple sources is one solution to identify particular processes and progress towards a better understanding of the sea level variations and the assessment of their impacts at coast. Here, we present a global database merging multisatellite altimetry with tide gauges and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. Vertical land motions and sea level variations are estimated simultaneously for a network of 886 ground stations with median errors lower than 1 mm/yr. The contribution of vertical land motions to relative sea level variations is explored to better understand the natural hazards associated with sea level rise in coastal areas. Worldwide, vertical land motions dominate 30 % of observed coastal trends. The role of the crust is highly heterogeneous: it can amplify, restrict or counter the effects of climate-induced sea level change. A set of 182 potential vulnerable localities are identified by large coastal subsidence which increases by several times the effects of sea level rise. Though regional behaviours exist, principally caused by GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment), the local variability in vertical land motion prevails. An accurate determination of the vertical motions observed at the coast is fundamental to understand the local processes which contribute to sea level rise, to appraise its impacts on coastal populations and make future predictions.

MISR L3 Global Products

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2016-10-31

Global Products The MISR Level 3 Products are global or regional maps of select parameters from the Level 2 products and ... from multiple orbits are combined to make complete Level 3 global maps at daily (D), monthly (M), quarterly (Q), and yearly (Y) time ...

Global sea level linked to global temperature

PubMed Central

Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2009-01-01

We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100. PMID:19995972

[The Global Fund to fight HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria policy issues].

PubMed

Kerouedan, D

2010-02-01

The five-year evaluation of the Global Fund to fight HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria (GFATM) was carried out by a Consortium of several Universities and institutions, led by a consulting firm based in Washington DC. Evaluation focused on three study areas: (i) organizational efficiency and effectiveness of the Global Fund, (ii) effectiveness of the Global Fund partner environment, (iii) system effects of the Global Fund and impact of increased funding on the level of response to the three diseases. Findings can be summed up as follows: the Global Fund has been successful in mobilizing additional funding and in attracting new players. However, the demand-driven model used for allocation of funding is poorly adapted to epidemiological profiles with regard to population, persons at highest risk, and number of persons affected by the disease. The partner environment of the Global Fund, involving UN technical partners and institutions cooperating in development has failed to produce planned results due to weak institutional capacity of recipients and health systems overall, as well as little synergy and coordination work between international partners. Increased financial resources have allowed rapid expansion of prevention and care services for the three diseases. Spectacular results have been achieved against malaria in Eastern African countries, but little progress has been made in the collective effort to slow down the spread of HIV/AIDS. In preparation for the upcoming Replenishment Conference of the Global Fund and prior to any further decisions to expand the use of innovative financing instruments for development, the author of this article calls the attention of policy-makers on the need to ensure the development of accompanying strategies to increase the effectiveness and impact of these instruments.

Influence of Arsenic on Global Levels of Histone Posttranslational Modifications: a Review of the Literature and Challenges in the Field.

PubMed

Howe, Caitlin G; Gamble, Mary V

2016-09-01

Arsenic is a human carcinogen and also increases the risk for non-cancer outcomes. Arsenic-induced epigenetic dysregulation may contribute to arsenic toxicity. Although there are several reviews on arsenic and epigenetics, these have largely focused on DNA methylation. Here, we review investigations of the effects of arsenic on global levels of histone posttranslational modifications (PTMs). Multiple studies have observed that arsenic induces higher levels of H3 lysine 9 dimethylation (H3K9me2) and also higher levels of H3 serine 10 phosphorylation (H3S10ph), which regulate chromosome segregation. In contrast, arsenic causes a global loss of H4K16ac, a histone PTM that is a hallmark of human cancers. Although the findings for other histone PTMs have not been entirely consistent across studies, we discuss biological factors which may contribute to these inconsistencies, including differences in the dose, duration, and type of arsenic species examined; the tissue or cell line evaluated; differences by sex; and exposure timing. We also discuss two important considerations for the measurement of histone PTMs: proteolytic cleavage of histones and arsenic-induced alterations in histone expression.

Economic impact of GM crops

PubMed Central

Brookes, Graham; Barfoot, Peter

2014-01-01

A key part of any assessment of the global value of crop biotechnology in agriculture is an examination of its economic impact at the farm level. This paper follows earlier annual studies which examined economic impacts on yields, key costs of production, direct farm income and effects, and impacts on the production base of the four main crops of soybeans, corn, cotton and canola. The commercialization of genetically modified (GM) crops has continued to occur at a rapid rate, with important changes in both the overall level of adoption and impact occurring in 2012. This annual updated analysis shows that there have been very significant net economic benefits at the farm level amounting to $18.8 billion in 2012 and $116.6 billion for the 17-year period (in nominal terms). These economic gains have been divided roughly 50% each to farmers in developed and developing countries. GM technology have also made important contributions to increasing global production levels of the four main crops, having added 122 million tonnes and 230 million tonnes respectively, to the global production of soybeans and maize since the introduction of the technology in the mid-1990s. PMID:24637520

Research frontiers for improving our understanding of drought‐induced tree and forest mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hartmann, Henrik; Moura, Catarina; Anderegg, William R. L.; Ruehr, Nadine; Salmon, Yann; Allen, Craig D.; Arndt, Stefan K.; Breshears, David D.; Davi, Hendrik; Galbraith, David; Ruthrof, Katinka X.; Wunder, Jan; Adams, Henry D.; Bloemen, Jasper; Cailleret, Maxime; Cobb, Richard; Gessler, Arthur; Grams, Thorsten E. E.; Jansen, Steven; Kautz, Markus; Lloret, Francisco; O’Brien, Michael

2018-01-01

Accumulating evidence highlights increased mortality risks for trees during severe drought, particularly under warmer temperatures and increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Resulting forest die‐off events have severe consequences for ecosystem services, biophysical and biogeochemical land–atmosphere processes. Despite advances in monitoring, modelling and experimental studies of the causes and consequences of tree death from individual tree to ecosystem and global scale, a general mechanistic understanding and realistic predictions of drought mortality under future climate conditions are still lacking. We update a global tree mortality map and present a roadmap to a more holistic understanding of forest mortality across scales. We highlight priority research frontiers that promote: (1) new avenues for research on key tree ecophysiological responses to drought; (2) scaling from the tree/plot level to the ecosystem and region; (3) improvements of mortality risk predictions based on both empirical and mechanistic insights; and (4) a global monitoring network of forest mortality. In light of recent and anticipated large forest die‐off events such a research agenda is timely and needed to achieve scientific understanding for realistic predictions of drought‐induced tree mortality. The implementation of a sustainable network will require support by stakeholders and political authorities at the international level.

Monitoring the change of coastal zones from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazenave, A. A.; Le Cozannet, G.; Benveniste, J.; Woodworth, P. L.

2017-12-01

The world's coastal zones, where an important fraction of the world population is currently living, are under serious threat because of coastal erosion, cyclones, storms, and salinization of estuaries and coastal aquifers. In the future, these hazards are expected to increase due to the combined effects of sea level rise, climate change, human activities and population increase. The response of coastal environments to natural and anthropogenic forcing factors (including climate change) depends on the characteristics of the forcing agents, as well as on the internal properties of the coastal systems, that remain poorly known and mostly un-surveyed at global scale. To better understand changes affecting coastal zones and to provide useful information to decision makers, various types of observations with global coverage need to be collected and analysed. Observations from space appear as an important complement to existing in situ observing systems (e.g., regional tide gauge networks). In this presentation, we discuss the benefit of systematic coastal monitoring from space, addressing both observations of forcing agents and of the coastal response. We highlight the need for a global coastal sea level data set based on retracked nadir altimetry missions and new SAR technology.

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A.; Andrews, Timothy; Wiltshire, Andrew; Chadwick, Robin; Ridley, Jeff K.; Menary, Matthew B.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Dufresne, Jean Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo

2015-02-01

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. ). There is a need to narrow uncertainty in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow--especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

Middle cerebral artery blood velocity and cerebral blood flow and O2 uptake during dynamic exercise.

PubMed

Madsen, P L; Sperling, B K; Warming, T; Schmidt, J F; Secher, N H; Wildschiødtz, G; Holm, S; Lassen, N A

1993-01-01

Results obtained by the 133Xe clearance method with external detectors and by transcranial Doppler sonography (TCD) suggest that dynamic exercise causes an increase of global average cerebral blood flow (CBF). These data are contradicted by earlier data obtained during less-well-defined conditions. To investigate this controversy, we applied the Kety-Schmidt technique to measure the global average levels of CBF and cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2) during rest and dynamic exercise. Simultaneously with the determination of CBF and CMRO2, we used TCD to determine mean maximal flow velocity in the middle cerebral artery (MCA Vmean). For values of CBF and MCA Vmean a correction for an observed small drop in arterial PCO2 was carried out. Baseline values for global CBF and CMRO2 were 50.7 and 3.63 ml.100 g-1.min-1, respectively. The same values were found during dynamic exercise, whereas a 22% (P < 0.0001) increase in MCA Vmean was observed. Hence, the exercise-induced increase in MCA Vmean is not a reflection of a proportional increase in CBF.

Robust Hadley Circulation changes and increasing global dryness due to CO2 warming from CMIP5 model projections.

PubMed

Lau, William K M; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2015-03-24

In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness (suppressed rainfall and reduced tropospheric relative humidity) under CO2 warming from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model projections. We find a strengthening of the HC manifested in a "deep-tropics squeeze" (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, enhanced ascent, increased high clouds, suppressed low clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200-100 hPa) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence and reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among various water-cycle parameters examined, global dryness is found to have the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide a physical basis for inferring that greenhouse warming is likely to contribute to the observed prolonged droughts worldwide in recent decades.

Redesigning photosynthesis to sustainably meet global food and bioenergy demand

PubMed Central

Ort, Donald R.; Merchant, Sabeeha S.; Alric, Jean; Barkan, Alice; Blankenship, Robert E.; Bock, Ralph; Croce, Roberta; Hanson, Maureen R.; Hibberd, Julian M.; Long, Stephen P.; Moore, Thomas A.; Moroney, James; Niyogi, Krishna K.; Parry, Martin A. J.; Peralta-Yahya, Pamela P.; Prince, Roger C.; Redding, Kevin E.; Spalding, Martin H.; van Wijk, Klaas J.; Vermaas, Wim F. J.; von Caemmerer, Susanne; Weber, Andreas P. M.; Yeates, Todd O.; Yuan, Joshua S.; Zhu, Xin Guang

2015-01-01

The world’s crop productivity is stagnating whereas population growth, rising affluence, and mandates for biofuels put increasing demands on agriculture. Meanwhile, demand for increasing cropland competes with equally crucial global sustainability and environmental protection needs. Addressing this looming agricultural crisis will be one of our greatest scientific challenges in the coming decades, and success will require substantial improvements at many levels. We assert that increasing the efficiency and productivity of photosynthesis in crop plants will be essential if this grand challenge is to be met. Here, we explore an array of prospective redesigns of plant systems at various scales, all aimed at increasing crop yields through improved photosynthetic efficiency and performance. Prospects range from straightforward alterations, already supported by preliminary evidence of feasibility, to substantial redesigns that are currently only conceptual, but that may be enabled by new developments in synthetic biology. Although some proposed redesigns are certain to face obstacles that will require alternate routes, the efforts should lead to new discoveries and technical advances with important impacts on the global problem of crop productivity and bioenergy production. PMID:26124102

Measuring mental workload with the NASA-TLX needs to examine each dimension rather than relying on the global score: an example with driving.

PubMed

Galy, Edith; Paxion, Julie; Berthelon, Catherine

2018-04-01

The distinction between several components of mental workload is often made in the ergonomics literature. However, measurements used are often established from a global score, notably with several questionnaires that originally reflect several dimensions. The present study tested the effect of driving situation complexity, experience and subjective levels of tension and alertness on each dimension of the NASA-TLX questionnaire of workload, in order to highlight the potential influence of intrinsic, extraneous and germane load factors. The results showed that, in complex situation, mental, temporal and physical demand (load dimensions) increased, and that novice drivers presented high physical demand when subjective tension was low on performance. Moreover, increase of mental and physical demand increased effort. It thus, appears essential to distinguish the different components of mental workload used in the NASA-TLX questionnaire. Practitioner Summary: Currently, global score of NASA-TLX questionnaire is used to measure mental workload. Here, we considered independently each dimension of NASA-TLX, and results showed that mental load factors (driving situation complexity, experience, subjective tension and alertness) had a different effect on dimensions, questioning global score use to evaluate workload.

Impact of Ocean Warming on Tropical Cyclone Size and Its Destructiveness.

PubMed

Sun, Yuan; Zhong, Zhong; Li, Tim; Yi, Lan; Hu, Yijia; Wan, Hongchao; Chen, Haishan; Liao, Qianfeng; Ma, Chen; Li, Qihua

2017-08-15

The response of tropical cyclone (TC) destructive potential to global warming is an open issue. A number of previous studies have ignored the effect of TC size change in the context of global warming, which resulted in a significant underestimation of the TC destructive potential. The lack of reliable and consistent historical data on TC size limits the confident estimation of the linkage between the observed trend in TC size and that in sea surface temperature (SST) under the background of global climate warming. A regional atmospheric model is used in the present study to investigate the response of TC size and TC destructive potential to increases in SST. The results show that a large-scale ocean warming can lead to not only TC intensification but also TC expansion. The TC size increase in response to the ocean warming is possibly attributed to the increase in atmospheric convective instability in the TC outer region below the middle troposphere, which facilitates the local development of grid-scale ascending motion, low-level convergence and the acceleration of tangential winds. The numerical results indicate that TCs will become stronger, larger, and unexpectedly more destructive under global warming.

Socioeconomic status is associated with global diabetes prevalence

PubMed Central

Xu, Zhiye; Yu, Dan; Yin, Xueyao; Zheng, Fenping; Li, Hong

2017-01-01

The incidence of diabetes is increasing globally. We investigated the relationship between diabetes prevalence and patient socioeconomic status across multiple countries. We searched PubMed to identify population-based surveys reporting diabetes prevalence between 1990 and May 2016. Search results were filtered, and Human Development Index (HDI) values from the United Nations Development Programme were used to assess socioeconomic status for a given nation. Our analysis included 45 national surveys from 32 countries. Diabetes prevalence was positively correlated with national HDI (r = 0.421 P = 0.041) in developing countries, and negatively correlated with HDI (r = −0.442 P = 0.045) in developed countries. Diabetes prevalence trends were the same in women and men, although men were associated with increased diabetes risk in developed countries (r = 0.459 P = 0.048). Thus, diabetes prevalence rises with increasing HDI in developing countries, and this is reversed in developed countries. Ours is the first study to investigate the relationship between diabetes and socioeconomic status at global level using HDI values. These results will aid in evaluating global diabetes prevalence and risk with respect to patient socioeconomic status, and will be useful in the development of policies that help reduce disease incidence. PMID:28574844

Socioeconomic status is associated with global diabetes prevalence.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiye; Yu, Dan; Yin, Xueyao; Zheng, Fenping; Li, Hong

2017-07-04

The incidence of diabetes is increasing globally. We investigated the relationship between diabetes prevalence and patient socioeconomic status across multiple countries. We searched PubMed to identify population-based surveys reporting diabetes prevalence between 1990 and May 2016. Search results were filtered, and Human Development Index (HDI) values from the United Nations Development Programme were used to assess socioeconomic status for a given nation. Our analysis included 45 national surveys from 32 countries. Diabetes prevalence was positively correlated with national HDI (r = 0.421 P = 0.041) in developing countries, and negatively correlated with HDI (r = -0.442 P = 0.045) in developed countries. Diabetes prevalence trends were the same in women and men, although men were associated with increased diabetes risk in developed countries (r = 0.459 P = 0.048). Thus, diabetes prevalence rises with increasing HDI in developing countries, and this is reversed in developed countries. Ours is the first study to investigate the relationship between diabetes and socioeconomic status at global level using HDI values. These results will aid in evaluating global diabetes prevalence and risk with respect to patient socioeconomic status, and will be useful in the development of policies that help reduce disease incidence.

Individual differences in the dominance of interhemispheric connections predict cognitive ability beyond sex and brain size.

PubMed

Martínez, Kenia; Janssen, Joost; Pineda-Pardo, José Ángel; Carmona, Susanna; Román, Francisco Javier; Alemán-Gómez, Yasser; Garcia-Garcia, David; Escorial, Sergio; Quiroga, María Ángeles; Santarnecchi, Emiliano; Navas-Sánchez, Francisco Javier; Desco, Manuel; Arango, Celso; Colom, Roberto

2017-07-15

Global structural brain connectivity has been reported to be sex-dependent with women having increased interhemispheric connectivity (InterHc) and men having greater intrahemispheric connectivity (IntraHc). However, (a) smaller brains show greater InterHc, (b) larger brains show greater IntraHc, and (c) women have, on average, smaller brains than men. Therefore, sex differences in brain size may modulate sex differences in global brain connectivity. At the behavioural level, sex-dependent differences in connectivity are thought to contribute to men-women differences in spatial and verbal abilities. But this has never been tested at the individual level. The current study assessed whether individual differences in global structural connectome measures (InterHc, IntraHc and the ratio of InterHc relative to IntraHc) predict spatial and verbal ability while accounting for the effect of sex and brain size. The sample included forty men and forty women, who did neither differ in age nor in verbal and spatial latent components defined by a broad battery of tests and tasks. High-resolution T 1 -weighted and diffusion-weighted images were obtained for computing brain size and reconstructing the structural connectome. Results showed that men had higher IntraHc than women, while women had an increased ratio InterHc/IntraHc. However, these sex differences were modulated by brain size. Increased InterHc relative to IntraHc predicted higher spatial and verbal ability irrespective of sex and brain size. The positive correlations between the ratio InterHc/IntraHc and the spatial and verbal abilities were confirmed in 1000 random samples generated by bootstrapping. Therefore, sex differences in global structural connectome connectivity were modulated by brain size and did not underlie sex differences in verbal and spatial abilities. Rather, the level of dominance of InterHc over IntraHc may be associated with individual differences in verbal and spatial abilities in both men and women. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptation of the Long-Lived Monocarpic Perennial Saxifraga longifolia to High Altitude1[OPEN

PubMed Central

Morales, Melanie; Fleta-Soriano, Eva; Garcia, Maria B.

2016-01-01

Global change is exerting a major effect on plant communities, altering their potential capacity for adaptation. Here, we aimed at unveiling mechanisms of adaptation to high altitude in an endemic long-lived monocarpic, Saxifraga longifolia, by combining demographic and physiological approaches. Plants from three altitudes (570, 1100, and 2100 m above sea level [a.s.l.]) were investigated in terms of leaf water and pigment contents, and activation of stress defense mechanisms. The influence of plant size on physiological performance and mortality was also investigated. Levels of photoprotective molecules (α-tocopherol, carotenoids, and anthocyanins) increased in response to high altitude (1100 relative to 570 m a.s.l.), which was paralleled by reduced soil and leaf water contents and increased ABA levels. The more demanding effect of high altitude on photoprotection was, however, partly abolished at very high altitudes (2100 m a.s.l.) due to improved soil water contents, with the exception of α-tocopherol accumulation. α-Tocopherol levels increased progressively at increasing altitudes, which paralleled with reductions in lipid peroxidation, thus suggesting plants from the highest altitude effectively withstood high light stress. Furthermore, mortality of juveniles was highest at the intermediate population, suggesting that drought stress was the main environmental driver of mortality of juveniles in this rocky plant species. Population structure and vital rates in the high population evidenced lower recruitment and mortality in juveniles, activation of clonal growth, and absence of plant size-dependent mortality. We conclude that, despite S. longifolia has evolved complex mechanisms of adaptation to altitude at the cellular, whole-plant and population levels, drought events may drive increased mortality in the framework of global change. PMID:27440756

Adaptation of the Long-Lived Monocarpic Perennial Saxifraga longifolia to High Altitude.

PubMed

Munné-Bosch, Sergi; Cotado, Alba; Morales, Melanie; Fleta-Soriano, Eva; Villellas, Jesús; Garcia, Maria B

2016-10-01

Global change is exerting a major effect on plant communities, altering their potential capacity for adaptation. Here, we aimed at unveiling mechanisms of adaptation to high altitude in an endemic long-lived monocarpic, Saxifraga longifolia, by combining demographic and physiological approaches. Plants from three altitudes (570, 1100, and 2100 m above sea level [a.s.l.]) were investigated in terms of leaf water and pigment contents, and activation of stress defense mechanisms. The influence of plant size on physiological performance and mortality was also investigated. Levels of photoprotective molecules (α-tocopherol, carotenoids, and anthocyanins) increased in response to high altitude (1100 relative to 570 m a.s.l.), which was paralleled by reduced soil and leaf water contents and increased ABA levels. The more demanding effect of high altitude on photoprotection was, however, partly abolished at very high altitudes (2100 m a.s.l.) due to improved soil water contents, with the exception of α-tocopherol accumulation. α-Tocopherol levels increased progressively at increasing altitudes, which paralleled with reductions in lipid peroxidation, thus suggesting plants from the highest altitude effectively withstood high light stress. Furthermore, mortality of juveniles was highest at the intermediate population, suggesting that drought stress was the main environmental driver of mortality of juveniles in this rocky plant species. Population structure and vital rates in the high population evidenced lower recruitment and mortality in juveniles, activation of clonal growth, and absence of plant size-dependent mortality. We conclude that, despite S. longifolia has evolved complex mechanisms of adaptation to altitude at the cellular, whole-plant and population levels, drought events may drive increased mortality in the framework of global change. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Leveraging Schools Systems as a Locus for Disaster Risk Reduction in Zimbabwe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mutsau, Shepard; Billiat, Ednah

2015-01-01

Disasters have become a déjàvu in many societies globally. The interaction between climate change and the ever increasing levels of poverty increase community vulnerability to disasters which weaken community resilience to disaster impacts. Such a scenario demands development practitioners, planners and scholarship to find novel ways of increasing…

Designed to Move? Physical Activity Lobbying and the Politics of Productivity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piggin, Joe

2015-01-01

Objectives: Physical inactivity is a major public health concern. At a population level, it is increasingly perceived to be a social problem which is global and multidimensional, and which requires attention by a diverse range of state, private and civil society organisations. Given the increasing attention to physical in/activity by a range of…

The Insider Threat Security Architecture: An Integrated, Inseparable, and Uninterrupted Self-Protection Autonomic Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jabbour, Ghassan

2010-01-01

The increasing proliferation of globally interconnected complex information systems has elevated the magnitude of attacks and the level of damage that they inflict on such systems. This open environment of intertwined financial, medical, defense, and other systems has attracted hackers to increase their malicious activities to cause harm or to…

Effects of income and urban form on urban NO2: global evidence from satellites.

PubMed

Bechle, Matthew J; Millet, Dylan B; Marshall, Julian D

2011-06-01

Urban air pollution is among the top 15 causes of death and disease worldwide, and a problem of growing importance with a majority of the global population living in cities. A important question for sustainable development is to what extent urban design can improve or degrade the environment and public health. We investigate relationships between satellite-derived estimates of nitrogen dioxide concentration (NO(2), a key component of urban air pollution) and urban form for 83 cities globally. We find a parsimonious yet powerful relationship (model R(2) = 0.63), using as predictors population, income, urban contiguity, and meteorology. Cities with highly contiguous built-up areas have, on average, lower urban NO(2) concentrations (a one standard deviation increase in contiguity is associated with a 24% decrease in average NO(2) concentration). More-populous cities tend to have worse air quality, but the increase in NO(2) associated with a population increase of 10% may be offset by a moderate increase (4%) in urban contiguity. Urban circularity ("compactness") is not a statistically significant predictor of NO(2) concentration. Although many factors contribute to urban air pollution, our findings suggest that antileapfrogging policies may improve air quality. We find that urban NO(2) levels vary nonlinearly with income (Gross Domestic Product), following an "environmental Kuznets curve"; we estimate that if high-income countries followed urban pollution-per-income trends observed for low-income countries, NO(2) concentrations in high-income cities would be ∼10× larger than observed levels.

Phosphorus and greenhouse gas dynamics in a drained calcareous wetland soil in Minnesota.

PubMed

Berryman, Erin M; Venterea, Rodney T; Baker, John M; Bloom, Paul R; Elf, Brandy

2009-01-01

Restoration of wetland hydrology can produce ecological benefits but may have unintended consequences. We examined effects of altered water level on release of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and greenhouse gases (GHG) in soil cores from a marsh being evaluated for restoration. We also measured field concentrations of DRP and other constituents in wetland porewater. Intact cores from a sampling location with higher Fe and lower calcium carbonate (CaCO(3)) contents released more DRP than another location, and displayed higher DRP under completely saturated compared to partly drained conditions. Porewater samples collected from the high-Fe location also contained higher DRP levels. Chemical data suggest that redox-driven reactions largely controlled DRP levels at the high-Fe site, while CaCO(3) adsorption was more important at the low-Fe site. Over the long term, water table elevation may attenuate P draining from the wetland due to decreased mineralization. However, such measures may increase P release in the short term. Raising the water level in soil cores resulted in decreased nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions, increased methane (CH(4)) emissions, and an overall increase in total global warming potential (GWP). The proportion of total GWP contributed by N(2)O decreased from 14% to < or = 1% as water level was raised, while the proportion contributed by CH(4) increased from 10 to 20% to 60 to 80%. Restoration of hydrology in the Rice Lake wetland has the potential to affect both local water quality and global air quality. These combined effects complicate the cost-to-benefit analysis of such wetland restoration efforts.

Strategic effects of future environmental policy commitments: climate change, solar radiation management and correlated air pollutants.

PubMed

Qu, Jingwen; Silva, Emilson Caputo Delfino

2015-03-15

We study the effects of environmental policy commitments in a futuristic world in which solar radiation management (SRM) can be utilized to reduce climate change damages. Carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions (correlated pollutants) can be reduced through tradable permits. We show that if nations simultaneously commit to carbon permit policies, national SRM levels rise with carbon quotas. Alternatively, if they simultaneously commit to SRM policies, the global temperature falls with each unit increase in the global SRM level. A nation always wishes to be a leader in policymaking, but prefers carbon to SRM policymaking. The globe prefers SRM policy commitments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Financing of global health: tracking development assistance for health from 1990 to 2007.

PubMed

Ravishankar, Nirmala; Gubbins, Paul; Cooley, Rebecca J; Leach-Kemon, Katherine; Michaud, Catherine M; Jamison, Dean T; Murray, Christopher J L

2009-06-20

The need for timely and reliable information about global health resource flows to low-income and middle-income countries is widely recognised. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2007. We defined DAH as all flows for health from public and private institutions whose primary purpose is to provide development assistance to low-income and middle-income countries. We used several data sources to measure the yearly volume of DAH in 2007 US$, and created an integrated project database to examine the composition of this assistance by recipient country. DAH grew from $5.6 billion in 1990 to $21.8 billion in 2007. The proportion of DAH channelled via UN agencies and development banks decreased from 1990 to 2007, whereas the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), and non-governmental organisations became the conduit for an increasing share of DAH. DAH has risen sharply since 2002 because of increases in public funding, especially from the USA, and on the private side, from increased philanthropic donations and in-kind contributions from corporate donors. Of the $13.8 [corrected] billion DAH in 2007 for which project-level information was available, $4.9 [corrected] billion was for HIV/AIDS, compared with $0.6 [corrected] billion for tuberculosis, $0.7 [corrected] billion for malaria, and $0.9 billion for health-sector support. Total DAH received by low-income and middle-income countries was positively correlated with burden of disease, whereas per head DAH was negatively correlated with per head gross domestic product. This study documents the substantial rise of resources for global health in recent years. Although the rise in DAH has resulted in increased funds for HIV/AIDS, other areas of global health have also expanded. The influx of funds has been accompanied by major changes in the institutional landscape of global health, with global health initiatives such as the Global Fund and GAVI having a central role in mobilising and channelling global health funds. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Department of Defense 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

CREDIT: NANCY JONESBONBREST, PEO C3T HATCHLINGS FROM ENDANGERED SEA TURTLES ARE RELEASED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR KENNEDY SPACE CENTER/CAPE...changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger...disasters. Our coastal installations are vulnerable to rising sea levels and increased flooding, while droughts, wildfires, and more extreme temperatures

Open-Ended Projects: 21st Century Learning in Engineering Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nichols, Scott

2016-01-01

Preparing students to be competitive in the 21st century global economy is undoubtedly one of the major goals of all educators. Studies have shown that students who have an increased exposure to engaging STEM courses at the high school level are more likely to enter STEM majors at the collegiate level and, thus, STEM industries post-graduation…

Embracing interactions in ocean acidification research: confronting multiple stressor scenarios and context dependence

PubMed Central

Kordas, Rebecca L.; Harley, Christopher D. G.

2017-01-01

Changes in the Earth's environment are now sufficiently complex that our ability to forecast the emergent ecological consequences of ocean acidification (OA) is limited. Such projections are challenging because the effects of OA may be enhanced, reduced or even reversed by other environmental stressors or interactions among species. Despite an increasing emphasis on multifactor and multispecies studies in global change biology, our ability to forecast outcomes at higher levels of organization remains low. Much of our failure lies in a poor mechanistic understanding of nonlinear responses, a lack of specificity regarding the levels of organization at which interactions can arise, and an incomplete appreciation for linkages across these levels. To move forward, we need to fully embrace interactions. Mechanistic studies on physiological processes and individual performance in response to OA must be complemented by work on population and community dynamics. We must also increase our understanding of how linkages and feedback among multiple environmental stressors and levels of organization can generate nonlinear responses to OA. This will not be a simple undertaking, but advances are of the utmost importance as we attempt to mitigate the effects of ongoing global change. PMID:28356409

Embracing interactions in ocean acidification research: confronting multiple stressor scenarios and context dependence.

PubMed

Kroeker, Kristy J; Kordas, Rebecca L; Harley, Christopher D G

2017-03-01

Changes in the Earth's environment are now sufficiently complex that our ability to forecast the emergent ecological consequences of ocean acidification (OA) is limited. Such projections are challenging because the effects of OA may be enhanced, reduced or even reversed by other environmental stressors or interactions among species. Despite an increasing emphasis on multifactor and multispecies studies in global change biology, our ability to forecast outcomes at higher levels of organization remains low. Much of our failure lies in a poor mechanistic understanding of nonlinear responses, a lack of specificity regarding the levels of organization at which interactions can arise, and an incomplete appreciation for linkages across these levels. To move forward, we need to fully embrace interactions. Mechanistic studies on physiological processes and individual performance in response to OA must be complemented by work on population and community dynamics. We must also increase our understanding of how linkages and feedback among multiple environmental stressors and levels of organization can generate nonlinear responses to OA. This will not be a simple undertaking, but advances are of the utmost importance as we attempt to mitigate the effects of ongoing global change. © 2017 The Authors.

Ecological Growth Boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bluszcz, Anna

2017-03-01

The trends of the society for the continuous growth, combined with the demographic changes, today have led to the important ecological problems on a global scale, which include, among others: the increased use of non-renewable natural resources, an increase of the greenhouse gas emissions, contamination of soil, water, air and the progressive degradation of ecosystems. In the face of such serious threats the global initiatives of all countries are important to limit the results of the excessive consumption. The aim of the article is to present the methods of measurement of the consumption level of natural resources by the societies and the examination of relationships between the level of development of the societies and the use of resources. The popular measure - the ecological footprint - was used as a measurement method for the consumption of the today's generations in relation to the regenerative possibilities of the natural environment. On the other hand, as the assessment method for the level of development of societies - the Human Development Index (HDI), including three basic areas: the life expectancy, GDP level per capita and education was used. The results of the research indicate that the current trend of the unlimited consumption of the highly developed countries takes place at the expense of the future generations.

Estimating watershed degradation over the last century and its impact on water-treatment costs for the world’s large cities

PubMed Central

McDonald, Robert I.; Weber, Katherine F.; Padowski, Julie; Boucher, Tim; Shemie, Daniel

2016-01-01

Urban water systems are impacted by land use within their source watersheds, as it affects raw water quality and thus the costs of water treatment. However, global estimates of the effect of land cover change on urban water-treatment costs have been hampered by a lack of global information on urban source watersheds. Here, we use a unique map of the urban source watersheds for 309 large cities (population > 750,000), combined with long-term data on anthropogenic land-use change in their source watersheds and data on water-treatment costs. We show that anthropogenic activity is highly correlated with sediment and nutrient pollution levels, which is in turn highly correlated with treatment costs. Over our study period (1900–2005), median population density has increased by a factor of 5.4 in urban source watersheds, whereas ranching and cropland use have increased by a factor of 3.4 and 2.0, respectively. Nearly all (90%) of urban source watersheds have had some level of watershed degradation, with the average pollutant yield of urban source watersheds increasing by 40% for sediment, 47% for phosphorus, and 119% for nitrogen. We estimate the degradation of watersheds over our study period has impacted treatment costs for 29% of cities globally, with operation and maintenance costs for impacted cities increasing on average by 53 ± 5% and replacement capital costs increasing by 44 ± 14%. We discuss why this widespread degradation might be occurring, and strategies cities have used to slow natural land cover loss. PMID:27457941

Estimating watershed degradation over the last century and its impact on water-treatment costs for the world's large cities.

PubMed

McDonald, Robert I; Weber, Katherine F; Padowski, Julie; Boucher, Tim; Shemie, Daniel

2016-08-09

Urban water systems are impacted by land use within their source watersheds, as it affects raw water quality and thus the costs of water treatment. However, global estimates of the effect of land cover change on urban water-treatment costs have been hampered by a lack of global information on urban source watersheds. Here, we use a unique map of the urban source watersheds for 309 large cities (population > 750,000), combined with long-term data on anthropogenic land-use change in their source watersheds and data on water-treatment costs. We show that anthropogenic activity is highly correlated with sediment and nutrient pollution levels, which is in turn highly correlated with treatment costs. Over our study period (1900-2005), median population density has increased by a factor of 5.4 in urban source watersheds, whereas ranching and cropland use have increased by a factor of 3.4 and 2.0, respectively. Nearly all (90%) of urban source watersheds have had some level of watershed degradation, with the average pollutant yield of urban source watersheds increasing by 40% for sediment, 47% for phosphorus, and 119% for nitrogen. We estimate the degradation of watersheds over our study period has impacted treatment costs for 29% of cities globally, with operation and maintenance costs for impacted cities increasing on average by 53 ± 5% and replacement capital costs increasing by 44 ± 14%. We discuss why this widespread degradation might be occurring, and strategies cities have used to slow natural land cover loss.

Targeting global conservation funding to limit immediate biodiversity declines

PubMed Central

Waldron, Anthony; Mooers, Arne O.; Miller, Daniel C.; Nibbelink, Nate; Redding, David; Kuhn, Tyler S.; Roberts, J. Timmons; Gittleman, John L.

2013-01-01

Inadequate funding levels are a major impediment to effective global biodiversity conservation and are likely associated with recent failures to meet United Nations biodiversity targets. Some countries are more severely underfunded than others and therefore represent urgent financial priorities. However, attempts to identify these highly underfunded countries have been hampered for decades by poor and incomplete data on actual spending, coupled with uncertainty and lack of consensus over the relative size of spending gaps. Here, we assemble a global database of annual conservation spending. We then develop a statistical model that explains 86% of variation in conservation expenditures, and use this to identify countries where funding is robustly below expected levels. The 40 most severely underfunded countries contain 32% of all threatened mammalian diversity and include neighbors in some of the world’s most biodiversity-rich areas (Sundaland, Wallacea, and Near Oceania). However, very modest increases in international assistance would achieve a large improvement in the relative adequacy of global conservation finance. Our results could therefore be quickly applied to limit immediate biodiversity losses at relatively little cost. PMID:23818619

Climate change: The challenges for public health preparedness and response- An Indian case study.

PubMed

Patil, Rajan R; Deepa, T M

2007-09-01

Extremes weather changes surpassing their usual statistical ranges and tumbling records in India could be an early warning bell of global warming. Extreme weather events like the recent record setting in western Indian city of Mumbai or all time high fatalities due to the heat wave in southern Indian states or increasing vulnerability of easten Indian states to flood could all be a manifestation of climate change in the Asian subcontinent. While the skeptics may be inclined to dismiss these events as simple local aberrations, when viewed in an epidemiological paradigm in terms of person, time and space couple with frequency, intensity and fatalities, it could well be an early manifestation of climate change. Global warming poses serious challenge to the health sector and hence warrants emergency health preparedness and response. Climate-sensitive diseases are among the largest global killers, hence major brunt of global climate change in terms of adverse health impact will be mostly borne by poor and developing countries in Asia, given the levels of poverty, nutional levels and poor public health infrastructure.

Targeting global conservation funding to limit immediate biodiversity declines.

PubMed

Waldron, Anthony; Mooers, Arne O; Miller, Daniel C; Nibbelink, Nate; Redding, David; Kuhn, Tyler S; Roberts, J Timmons; Gittleman, John L

2013-07-16

Inadequate funding levels are a major impediment to effective global biodiversity conservation and are likely associated with recent failures to meet United Nations biodiversity targets. Some countries are more severely underfunded than others and therefore represent urgent financial priorities. However, attempts to identify these highly underfunded countries have been hampered for decades by poor and incomplete data on actual spending, coupled with uncertainty and lack of consensus over the relative size of spending gaps. Here, we assemble a global database of annual conservation spending. We then develop a statistical model that explains 86% of variation in conservation expenditures, and use this to identify countries where funding is robustly below expected levels. The 40 most severely underfunded countries contain 32% of all threatened mammalian diversity and include neighbors in some of the world's most biodiversity-rich areas (Sundaland, Wallacea, and Near Oceania). However, very modest increases in international assistance would achieve a large improvement in the relative adequacy of global conservation finance. Our results could therefore be quickly applied to limit immediate biodiversity losses at relatively little cost.

Development of new impact functions for global risk caused by climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyazaki, C.

2014-12-01

The purpose of our study is to identify and quantify global-scale risks which can be caused by future climate change. In particular, we focus on the global-scale risks which have critical impacts to human environments. Use of impact functions is one of the common way to quantify global-scale risks. Output of impact function is climate impacts (e.g. economic damage by temperature increasing) and input can be global temperature increasing and/or socioeconomic condition (e.g. GDP). As the first step of study, we referred to AR5 WG II report (AR5, hereafter) and comprehensive inventories of climate change risks developed by Strategic R&D Area Project of the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (ICA-RUS project). Then we extracted information which can be used to develop impact function from them. By following SPM/AR5, we focused on 11 sectors and extracted quantitative description on climate impacts from the AR5 and paper/reports cited in AR5. As a result, we identified about 40 risk items to focus as global-scale risks by climate change. Using the collected information, we tentatively made impact function on sea level rise and so on. In addition, we also extracted the impact functions used in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). The literature survey on IAM suggested the risk items considered in IAMs are limited. For instance, although FUND model provides detailed impact functions compared with most of other IAMs, its impact functions deal with only several sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, sea level rise, human health, energy demand and water resources). The survey on impact functions in IAMs also suggested impact function for abrupt climate change (so-called Tipping Element) is premature. Moreover, as example for quantifying health risk by our calculation, we also present the result on global-scale projection of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition (Ishida et al., 2014, ERL).

Essential competencies in global health research for medical trainees: A narrative review.

PubMed

White, Mary T; Satterfield, Caley A; Blackard, Jason T

2017-09-01

Participation in short-term educational experiences in global health (STEGHs) among medical trainees is increasingly accompanied by interest in conducting research while abroad. Because formal training in both global health and research methods is currently under-represented in most medical curricula, trainees are often unfamiliar with the knowledge, attitudes, and skills necessary to design and conduct research successfully. This narrative review identifies essential global health research competencies for medical trainees engaged in STEGHs. The authors searched the literature using the terms global health, competency, research, research methods/process/training, scholarly project, medical student, and medical education/education. Because articles directly addressing global health research competencies for medical trainees were limited, the authors additionally drew on the broader literature addressing general research competencies and global health competencies. Articles yielded by the literature search, combined with established guidelines in research ethics and global health ethics, were used to identify six core domains and twenty discrete competencies fundamental to global health research at a level appropriate for medical trainees enrolled in STEGHs. Consideration was given to diverse research modalities, varying levels of training, and the availability of mentoring and on-site support. Research may provide important benefits to medical trainees and host partners. These competencies provide a starting point; however, circumstances at any host site may necessitate additional competencies specific to that setting. These competencies are also limited by the methodology employed in their development and the need for additional perspectives from host partners. The competencies identified outline basic knowledge, attitudes, and skills necessary for medical trainees to conduct limited global health research while participating in STEGHS. They may also be used as a basis for curriculum development, assessment, and research capacity development.

Soil Organic Carbon for Global Benefits - assessing potential SOC increase under SLM technologies worldwide and evaluating tradeoffs and gains of upscaling SLM technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfgramm, Bettina; Hurni, Hans; Liniger, Hanspeter; Ruppen, Sebastian; Milne, Eleanor; Bader, Hans-Peter; Scheidegger, Ruth; Amare, Tadele; Yitaferu, Birru; Nazarmavloev, Farrukh; Conder, Malgorzata; Ebneter, Laura; Qadamov, Aslam; Shokirov, Qobiljon; Hergarten, Christian; Schwilch, Gudrun

2013-04-01

There is a fundamental mutual interest between enhancing soil organic carbon (SOC) in the world's soils and the objectives of the major global environmental conventions (UNFCCC, UNCBD, UNCCD). While there is evidence at the case study level that sustainable land management (SLM) technologies increase SOC stocks and SOC related benefits, there is no quantitative data available on the potential for increasing SOC benefits from different SLM technologies and especially from case studies in the developing countries, and a clear understanding of the trade-offs related to SLM up-scaling is missing. This study aims at assessing the potential increase of SOC under SLM technologies worldwide, evaluating tradeoffs and gains in up-scaling SLM for case studies in Tajikistan, Ethiopia and Switzerland. It makes use of the SLM technologies documented in the online database of the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT). The study consists of three components: 1) Identifying SOC benefits contributing to the major global environmental issues for SLM technologies worldwide as documented in the WOCAT global database 2) Validation of SOC storage potentials and SOC benefit predictions for SLM technologies from the WOCAT database using results from existing comparative case studies at the plot level, using soil spectral libraries and standardized documentations of ecosystem service from the WOCAT database. 3) Understanding trade-offs and win-win scenarios of up-scaling SLM technologies from the plot to the household and landscape level using material flow analysis. This study builds on the premise that the most promising way to increase benefits from land management is to consider already existing sustainable strategies. Such SLM technologies from all over the world documented are accessible in a standardized way in the WOCAT online database. The study thus evaluates SLM technologies from the WOCAT database by calculating the potential SOC storage increase and related benefits by comparing SOC estimates before-and-after establishment of the SLM technology. These results are validated using comparative case studies of plots with-and-without SLM technologies (existing SLM systems versus surrounding, degrading systems). In view of upscaling SLM technologies, it is crucial to understand tradeoffs and gains supporting or hindering the further spread. Systemic biomass management analysis using material flow analysis allows quantifying organic carbon flows and storages for different land management options at the household, but also at landscape level. The study shows results relevant for science, policy and practice for accounting, monitoring and evaluating SOC related ecosystem services: - A comprehensive methodology for SLM impact assessments allowing quantification of SOC storage and SOC related benefits under different SLM technologies, and - Improved understanding of upscaling options for SLM technologies and tradeoffs as well as win-win opportunities for biomass management, SOC content increase, and ecosystem services improvement at the plot and household level.

Roles of PTEN-induced putative kinase 1 and dynamin-related protein 1 in transient global ischemia-induced hippocampal neuronal injury

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Shang-Der, E-mail: chensd@adm.cgmh.org.tw; Center for Translational Research in Biomedical Sciences, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Taiwan; Lin, Tsu-Kung

Recent studies showed that increased mitochondrial fission is an early event of cell death during cerebral ischemia and dynamin-related protein 1 (Drp1) plays an important role in mitochondrial fission, which may be regulated by PTEN-induced putative kinase 1 (PINK1), a mitochondrial serine/threonine-protein kinase thought to protect cells from stress-induced mitochondrial dysfunction and regulate mitochondrial fission. However, the roles of PINK1 and Drp1 in hippocampal injury caused by transient global ischemia (TGI) remain unknown. We therefore tested the hypothesis that TGI may induce PINK1 causing downregulation of Drp1 phosphorylation to enhance hippocampal neuronal survival, thus functioning as an endogenous neuroprotective mechanism.more » We found progressively increased PINK1 expression in the hippocampal CA1 subfield1-48 h following TGI, reaching the maximal level at 4 h. Despite lack of changes in the expression level of total Drp1 and phosphor-Drp1 at Ser637, TGI induced a time-dependent increase of Drp1 phosphorlation at Ser616 that peaked after 24 h. Notably, PINK1-siRNA increased p-Drp1(Ser616) protein level in hippocampal CA1 subfield 24 h after TGI. The PINK1 siRNA also aggravated the TGI-induced oxidative DNA damage with an increased 8-hydroxy-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) content in hippocampal CA1 subfield. Furthermore, PINK1 siRNA also augmented TGI-induced apoptosis as evidenced by the increased numbers of TUNEL-positive staining and enhanced DNA fragmentation. These findings indicated that PINK1 is an endogenous protective mediator vital for neuronal survival under ischemic insult through regulating Drp1 phosphorylation at Ser616. - Highlights: • Transient global ischemia increases expression of PINK1 and p-Drp1 at Ser616 in hippocampal CA1 subfield. • PINK1-siRNA decreases PINK1 expression but increases p-Drp1 at Ser616 in hippocampal CA1 subfield. • PINK1-siRNA augments oxidative stress and neuronal damage in hippocampal CA1 subfield.« less

Changes in air quality and tropospheric composition due to depletion of stratospheric ozone and interactions with changing climate: implications for human and environmental health.

PubMed

Madronich, S; Shao, M; Wilson, S R; Solomon, K R; Longstreth, J D; Tang, X Y

2015-01-01

UV radiation is an essential driver for the formation of photochemical smog, which includes ground-level ozone and particulate matter (PM). Recent analyses support earlier work showing that poor outdoor air quality is a major environmental hazard as well as quantifying health effects on regional and global scales more accurately. Greater exposure to these pollutants has been linked to increased risks of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in humans and is associated globally with several million premature deaths per year. Ozone also has adverse effects on yields of crops, leading to loss of billions of US dollars each year. These detrimental effects also may alter biological diversity and affect the function of natural ecosystems. Future air quality will depend mostly on changes in emission of pollutants and their precursors, but changes in UV radiation and climate will contribute as well. Significant reductions in emissions, mainly from the energy and transportation sectors, have already led to improved air quality in many locations. Air quality will continue to improve in those cities/states that can afford controls, and worsen where the regulatory infrastructure is not available. Future changes in UV radiation and climate will alter the rates of formation of ground-level ozone and photochemically-generated particulate matter and must be considered in predictions of air quality. The decrease in UV radiation associated with recovery of stratospheric ozone will, according to recent global atmospheric model simulations, lead to increases in ground-level ozone at most locations. If correct, this will add significantly to future ground-level ozone trends. However, the spatial resolution of these global models is insufficient to inform policy at this time, especially for urban areas. UV radiation affects the atmospheric concentration of hydroxyl radicals, ˙OH, which are responsible for the self-cleaning of the atmosphere. Recent measurements confirm that, on a local scale, ˙OH radicals respond rapidly to changes in UV radiation. However, on large (global) scales, models differ in their predictions by nearly a factor of two, with consequent uncertainties for estimating the atmospheric lifetime and concentrations of key greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Projections of future climate need to consider these uncertainties. No new negative environmental effects of substitutes for ozone depleting substances or their breakdown-products have been identified. However, some substitutes for the ozone depleting substances will continue to contribute to global climate change if concentrations rise above current levels.

Management of Globally Distributed Software Development Projects in Multiple-Vendor Constellations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schott, Katharina; Beck, Roman; Gregory, Robert Wayne

Global information systems development outsourcing is an apparent trend that is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. Thereby, IS-related services are not only increasingly provided from different geographical sites simultaneously but beyond that from multiple service providers based in different countries. The purpose of this paper is to understand how the involvement of multiple service providers affects the management of the globally distributed information systems development projects. As research on this topic is scarce, we applied an exploratory in-depth single-case study design as research approach. The case we analyzed comprises a global software development outsourcing project initiated by a German bank together with several globally distributed vendors. For data collection and data analysis we have adopted techniques suggested by the grounded theory method. Whereas the extant literature points out the increased management overhead associated with multi-sourcing, the analysis of our case suggests that the required effort for managing global outsourcing projects with multiple vendors depends among other things on the maturation level of the cooperation within the vendor portfolio. Furthermore, our data indicate that this interplay maturity is positively impacted through knowledge about the client that has been derived based on already existing client-vendor relationships. The paper concludes by offering theoretical and practical implications.

Global, regional and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults 1980-2013: A systematic analysis

PubMed Central

Ng, Marie; Fleming, Tom; Robinson, Margaret; Thomson, Blake; Graetz, Nicholas; Margono, Christopher; Mullany, Erin C; Biryukov, Stan; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abraham, Jerry P; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME; Achoki, Tom; AlBuhairan, Fadia S; Alemu, Zewdie A; Alfonso, Rafael; Ali, Mohammed K; Ali, Raghib; Guzman, Nelson Alvis; Ammar, Walid; Anwari, Palwasha; Banerjee, Amitava; Barquera, Simon; Basu, Sanjay; Bennett, Derrick A; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Blore, Jed; Cabral, Norberto; Nonato, Ismael Campos; Chang, Jung-Chen; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Courville, Karen J; Criqui, Michael H; Cundiff, David K; Dabhadkar, Kaustubh C; Dandona, Lalit; Davis, Adrian; Dayama, Anand; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Ding, Eric L; Durrani, Adnan M; Esteghamati, Alireza; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fay, Derek FJ; Feigin, Valery L; Flaxman, Abraham; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Goto, Atsushi; Green, Mark A; Gupta, Rajeev; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hankey, Graeme J; Harewood, Heather C; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon; Hernandez, Lucia; Husseini, Abdullatif; Idrisov, Bulat T; Ikeda, Nayu; Islami, Farhad; Jahangir, Eiman; Jassal, Simerjot K; Jee, Sun Ha; Jeffreys, Mona; Jonas, Jost B; Kabagambe, Edmond K; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khang, Young-Ho; Kim, Daniel; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kinge, Jonas M; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kosen, Soewarta; Kwan, Gene; Lai, Taavi; Leinsalu, Mall; Li, Yichong; Liang, Xiaofeng; Liu, Shiwei; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lu, Yuan; Ma, Jixiang; Mainoo, Nana Kwaku; Mensah, George A; Merriman, Tony R; Mokdad, Ali H; Moschandreas, Joanna; Naghavi, Mohsen; Naheed, Aliya; Nand, Devina; Narayan, KM Venkat; Nelson, Erica Leigh; Neuhouser, Marian L; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Oti, Samuel O; Pedroza, Andrea; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Roy, Nobhojit; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Seo, Hyeyoung; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Shibuya, Kenji; Shiri, Rahman; Shiue, Ivy; Singh, Gitanjali M; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Stapelberg, Nicolas JC; Sturua, Lela; Sykes, Bryan L; Tobias, Martin; Tran, Bach X; Trasande, Leonardo; Toyoshima, Hideaki; van de Vijver, Steven; Vasankari, Tommi J; Veerman, J Lennert; Velasquez-Melendez, Gustavo; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Vos, Theo; Wang, Claire; Wang, Sharon XiaoRong; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Werdecker, Andrea; Wright, Jonathan L; Yang, Y Claire; Yatsuya, Hiroshi; Yoon, Jihyun; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Zhao, Yong; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Shankuan; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher JL

2015-01-01

Background In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3.4 million deaths, 3.9% of years of life lost, and 3.8% of DALYs globally. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparative, up-to-date information on levels and trends is essential both to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision-makers to prioritize action. Methods We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n = 1,769) that included information on height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. Mixed effects linear regression was used to correct for the bias in self-reports. Age-sex-country-year observations (n = 19,244) on prevalence of obesity and overweight were synthesized using a spatio-temporal Gaussian Process Regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings Globally, the proportion of adults with a body mass index (BMI) of 25 or greater increased from 28.8% (95% UI: 28.4-29.3) in 1980 to 36.9% (36.3-37.4) in 2013 for men and from 29.8% (29.3-30.2) to 38.0% (37.5-38.5) for women. Increases were observed in both developed and developing countries. There have been substantial increases in prevalence among children and adolescents in developed countries, with 23.8% (22.9-24.7) of boys and 22.6% (21.7-23.6) of girls being either overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity is also rising among children and adolescents in developing countries as well, rising from 8.1% (7.7-8.6) to 12.9% (12.3-13.5) in 2013 for boys and from 8.4% (8.1-8.8) to 13.4% (13.0-13.9) in girls. Among adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeds 50% among men in Tonga and women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has stabilized. Interpretation Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Contrary to other major global risks, there is little evidence of successful population-level intervention strategies to reduce exposure. Not only is obesity increasing, but there are no national success stories over the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is required to assist countries to more effectively intervene. PMID:24880830

Increasing trend in the average temperature in Finland, 1847-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikkonen, Santtu; Laine, Marko; Mäkelä, Hanna M.; Gregow, Hilppa; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Lahtinen, Matti; Laaksonen, Ari

2014-05-01

The global average temperature has increased by about 0.8 ° C since the mid-19th century. It has been shown that this increase is statistically significant and that it can, for the most part, be attributed to human-induced climate change (IPCC 2007). A temperature increase is obvious also in regional and local temperatures in many parts of the world. However, compared with the global average temperature, the regional and local temperatures exhibit higher levels of noise, which has largely been removed from the global temperature due to the higher level of averaging. Because Finland is located in northern latitudes, it is subject to the polar amplification of climate change-induced warming, which is due to the enhanced melting of snow and ice and other feedback mechanisms. Therefore, warming in Finland is expected to be approximately 50% higher than the global average. Conversely, the location of Finland between the Atlantic Ocean and continental Eurasia causes the weather to be very variable, and thus the temperature signal is rather noisy. The change in mean temperature in Finland was investigated with Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) in order to define the sign and the magnitude of the trend in the temperature time series within the last 165 years. The data consisted of gridded monthly mean temperatures. The grid has a 10 km spatial resolution, and it was created by interpolating a homogenized temperature series measured at Finnish weather stations. Seasonal variation in temperature and the autocorrelation structure of the time series were taken account in the DLM models. We found that the Finnish temperature time series exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend, which is consistent with human-induced global warming. The mean temperature has risen clearly over 2° C in the years 1847-2012, which amounts to 0.16 ° C/decade. The warming rate before 1940's was close to the linear trend for the whole period, whereas the temperature change in the mid-20th century was negligible. However, the warming after the late 1960s has been remarkably fast. The model indicates that within the last 40 years the rate of change has been as high as 0.30 ° C/decade. The increase in temperature has been highest in spring and in late autumn but the change in summer months has not been so evident. The observed warming is somewhat higher than the global trend, which confirms the assumption that warming is stronger in higher latitudes.

Redefining agricultural yields: from tonnes to people nourished per hectare

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassidy, Emily S.; West, Paul C.; Gerber, James S.; Foley, Jonathan A.

2013-09-01

Worldwide demand for crops is increasing rapidly due to global population growth, increased biofuel production, and changing dietary preferences. Meeting these growing demands will be a substantial challenge that will tax the capability of our food system and prompt calls to dramatically boost global crop production. However, to increase food availability, we may also consider how the world’s crops are allocated to different uses and whether it is possible to feed more people with current levels of crop production. Of particular interest are the uses of crops as animal feed and as biofuel feedstocks. Currently, 36% of the calories produced by the world’s crops are being used for animal feed, and only 12% of those feed calories ultimately contribute to the human diet (as meat and other animal products). Additionally, human-edible calories used for biofuel production increased fourfold between the years 2000 and 2010, from 1% to 4%, representing a net reduction of available food globally. In this study, we re-examine agricultural productivity, going from using the standard definition of yield (in tonnes per hectare, or similar units) to using the number of people actually fed per hectare of cropland. We find that, given the current mix of crop uses, growing food exclusively for direct human consumption could, in principle, increase available food calories by as much as 70%, which could feed an additional 4 billion people (more than the projected 2-3 billion people arriving through population growth). Even small shifts in our allocation of crops to animal feed and biofuels could significantly increase global food availability, and could be an instrumental tool in meeting the challenges of ensuring global food security.

Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015.

PubMed

Cohen, Aaron J; Brauer, Michael; Burnett, Richard; Anderson, H Ross; Frostad, Joseph; Estep, Kara; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Brunekreef, Bert; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Feigin, Valery; Freedman, Greg; Hubbell, Bryan; Jobling, Amelia; Kan, Haidong; Knibbs, Luke; Liu, Yang; Martin, Randall; Morawska, Lidia; Pope, C Arden; Shin, Hwashin; Straif, Kurt; Shaddick, Gavin; Thomas, Matthew; van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Vos, Theo; Murray, Christopher J L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H

2017-05-13

Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM 2·5 ) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure-response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure-response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Ambient PM 2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM 2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM 2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000-422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM 2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Global economic-biophysical assessment of midterm scenarios for agricultural markets—biofuel policies, dietary patterns, cropland expansion, and productivity growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delzeit, Ruth; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Mauser, Wolfram

2018-02-01

Land-use decisions are made at the local level. They are influenced both by local factors and by global drivers and trends. These will most likely change over time e.g. due to political shocks, market developments or climate change. Hence, their influence should be taken into account when analysing and projecting local land-use decisions. We provide a set of mid-term scenarios of global drivers (until 2030) for use in regional and local studies on agriculture and land-use. In a participatory process, four important drivers are identified by experts from globally distributed regional studies: biofuel policies, increase in preferences for meat and dairy products in Asia, cropland expansion into uncultivated areas, and changes in agricultural productivity growth. Their impact on possible future developments of global and regional agricultural markets are analysed with a modelling framework consisting of a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop growth model. The business as usual (BAU) scenario causes production and prices of crops to rise over time. It also leads to a conversion of pasture land to cropland. Under different scenarios, global price changes range between -42 and +4% in 2030 compared to the BAU. An abolishment of biofuel targets does not significantly improve food security while an increased agricultural productivity and cropland expansion have a stronger impact on changes in food production and prices.

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Richard A.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-01

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

PubMed

Betts, Richard A; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-13

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Directed combinatorial mutagenesis of Escherichia coli for complex phenotype engineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Rongming; Liang, Liya; Garst, Andrew D.

Strain engineering for industrial production requires a targeted improvement of multiple complex traits, which range from pathway flux to tolerance to mixed sugar utilization. Here, we report the use of an iterative CRISPR EnAbled Trackable genome Engineering (iCREATE) method to engineer rapid glucose and xylose co-consumption and tolerance to hydrolysate inhibitors in E. coli. Deep mutagenesis libraries were rationally designed, constructed, and screened to target ~40,000 mutations across 30 genes. These libraries included global and high-level regulators that regulate global gene expression, transcription factors that play important roles in genome-level transcription, enzymes that function in the sugar transport system, NAD(P)Hmore » metabolism, and the aldehyde reduction system. Specific mutants that conferred increased growth in mixed sugars and hydrolysate tolerance conditions were isolated, confirmed, and evaluated for changes in genome-wide expression levels. As a result, we tested the strain with positive combinatorial mutations for 3-hydroxypropionic acid (3HP) production under high furfural and high acetate hydrolysate fermentation, which demonstrated a 7- and 8-fold increase in 3HP productivity relative to the parent strain, respectively.« less

Directed combinatorial mutagenesis of Escherichia coli for complex phenotype engineering

DOE PAGES

Liu, Rongming; Liang, Liya; Garst, Andrew D.; ...

2018-03-29

Strain engineering for industrial production requires a targeted improvement of multiple complex traits, which range from pathway flux to tolerance to mixed sugar utilization. Here, we report the use of an iterative CRISPR EnAbled Trackable genome Engineering (iCREATE) method to engineer rapid glucose and xylose co-consumption and tolerance to hydrolysate inhibitors in E. coli. Deep mutagenesis libraries were rationally designed, constructed, and screened to target ~40,000 mutations across 30 genes. These libraries included global and high-level regulators that regulate global gene expression, transcription factors that play important roles in genome-level transcription, enzymes that function in the sugar transport system, NAD(P)Hmore » metabolism, and the aldehyde reduction system. Specific mutants that conferred increased growth in mixed sugars and hydrolysate tolerance conditions were isolated, confirmed, and evaluated for changes in genome-wide expression levels. As a result, we tested the strain with positive combinatorial mutations for 3-hydroxypropionic acid (3HP) production under high furfural and high acetate hydrolysate fermentation, which demonstrated a 7- and 8-fold increase in 3HP productivity relative to the parent strain, respectively.« less

A longitudinal research on the development of emotional autonomy during adolescence.

PubMed

Parra, Agueda; Oliva, Alfredo

2009-05-01

The purpose of the present paper was to study the development of emotional autonomy through adolescence analysing its association with family relationships. The development of emotional autonomy involves an increase in adolescents' subjective sense of his or her independence, especially in relation to parents. From some scholars emotional autonomy is a normative manifestation of the detachment process from parents, however, others point out that detachment from parental ties is not the norm, so high level of adolescent emotional autonomy is the consequence of negative family relationships. In our study a sample of 101 adolescents were followed for 5 years, from early to middle adolescence, and completed questionnaires to measure their emotional autonomy and the quality of their family relationships. Our results showed that over the course of adolescence some dimensions of emotional autonomy increase, meanwhile others decrease, so the global level of emotional autonomy global level remains stable. On the other hand, emotional autonomy is associated with negative family relationships, so emotional autonomy, more than a necessary process to become adult, could be indicating an insecure attachment to parents.

The dynamics of human cognition: Increasing global integration coupled with decreasing segregation found using iEEG.

PubMed

Cruzat, Josephine; Deco, Gustavo; Tauste-Campo, Adrià; Principe, Alessandro; Costa, Albert; Kringelbach, Morten L; Rocamora, Rodrigo

2018-05-15

Cognitive processing requires the ability to flexibly integrate and process information across large brain networks. How do brain networks dynamically reorganize to allow broad communication between many different brain regions in order to integrate information? We record neural activity from 12 epileptic patients using intracranial EEG while performing three cognitive tasks. We assess how the functional connectivity between different brain areas changes to facilitate communication across them. At the topological level, this facilitation is characterized by measures of integration and segregation. Across all patients, we found significant increases in integration and decreases in segregation during cognitive processing, especially in the gamma band (50-90 Hz). We also found higher levels of global synchronization and functional connectivity during task execution, again particularly in the gamma band. More importantly, functional connectivity modulations were not caused by changes in the level of the underlying oscillations. Instead, these modulations were caused by a rearrangement of the mutual synchronization between the different nodes as proposed by the "Communication Through Coherence" Theory. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

2017-04-01

Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities, Mediterranean Sea level would follow global changes with departures lower than + 5 cm. In a second step we use the same methodology to obtain SLR projections at global scale in order to assess the vulnerability of other coastal areas. Namely, we define a vulnerability index based on relating the characteristics of present day variability with SLR projections under different scenarios. Results show that the averaged vulnerability index is 0.5 for scenario RCP8.5 (projected SLR is about a half of the maximum sea level recorded in the last decades). However, in the Mediterranean, the Caribbean and the Sea of Japan the vulnerability index is much higher (2.6, 2.4 and 2.1, respectively). From this point of view, therefore, these regions could be considered the most vulnerable regions in the world.

Breeding synchrony in colonial birds: from local stress to global harmony.

PubMed

Jovani, Roger; Grimm, Volker

2008-07-07

Why and how birds in colonies often breed in striking synchrony is an unsolved question. In colonies, conspecific birds often destroy eggs and kill chicks, either intentionally or not. We propose that social tranquillity at the time of laying can be achieved if a bird's stress level is partly determined by the agitation of its neighbours. Moreover, we propose that this local process, together with environmental cues, can synchronize breeding between neighbours and through a whole colony. We tested our hypotheses using a generic individual-based model where the breeding predisposition of females was updated daily depending on an increase in the photoperiod (positively) and the stress level of neighbours: negatively if they were agitated, and positively otherwise. A female laid her eggs when her stress level fell to a critical value. Even giving only a low relevance to the neighbour's stress level was enough to synchronize the laying date of neighbours and also of a huge colony. Moreover, females bred in a safer environment, which is known from field studies to increase fitness. Our study highlights the power of local adaptive (individual) behaviour to create global (colony) patterns. We argue that collective patterns such as breeding synchrony in colonial birds could have simple adaptive individual-level explanations.

The nuclear receptor corepressor (NCoR) controls thyroid hormone sensitivity and the set point of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis.

PubMed

Astapova, Inna; Vella, Kristen R; Ramadoss, Preeti; Holtz, Kaila A; Rodwin, Benjamin A; Liao, Xiao-Hui; Weiss, Roy E; Rosenberg, Michael A; Rosenzweig, Anthony; Hollenberg, Anthony N

2011-02-01

The role of nuclear receptor corepressor (NCoR) in thyroid hormone (TH) action has been difficult to discern because global deletion of NCoR is embryonic lethal. To circumvent this, we developed mice that globally express a modified NCoR protein (NCoRΔID) that cannot be recruited to the thyroid hormone receptor (TR). These mice present with low serum T(4) and T(3) concentrations accompanied by normal TSH levels, suggesting central hypothyroidism. However, they grow normally and have increased energy expenditure and normal or elevated TR-target gene expression across multiple tissues, which is not consistent with hypothyroidism. Although these findings imply an increased peripheral sensitivity to TH, the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis is not more sensitive to acute changes in TH concentrations but appears to be reset to recognize the reduced TH levels as normal. Furthermore, the thyroid gland itself, although normal in size, has reduced levels of nonthyroglobulin-bound T(4) and T(3) and demonstrates decreased responsiveness to TSH. Thus, the TR-NCoR interaction controls systemic TH sensitivity as well as the set point at all levels of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis. These findings suggest that NCoR levels could alter cell-specific TH action that would not be reflected by the serum TSH.

Options for decoupling economic growth from water use and water pollution: A report of the Water Working Group of the International Resource Panel Options for decoupling economic growth from water use and water pollution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global trends have pointed to a relative decoupling of water – that is, the rate of water resource use is increasing at a rate slower than that of economic growth. Despite this progress at the global level, it is projected that by 2030 there will be a 40% gap between water supply and water demand if...

Transnational architecting for homeland defense

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, Thomas W.

2002-07-01

The homeland security interests of a many nations are being increasingly threatened by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, drug trafficking, mass migration, global terrorism, environmental concerns, international crime and other global issues. This paper presents the case for development of such a transnational ballistic missile defense architecture for homeland defense and specifically addresses the architecture methodology and process, as well as the potential benefits and the top-level architecture trade issues that would have to be addressed if the community should decide to seriously pursue such an approach.

Early trends in the global tropospheric abundance of hydrochlorofluorocarbon-141b and 142b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montzka, S. A.; Myers, R. C.; Butler, J. H.; Elkins, J. W.

1994-11-01

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are rapidly replacing chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) as foam-blowing agents, solvents, and refrigerants. These substitutes, however, still contain chlorine and have the potential to deplete stratospheric ozone. Although the ozone destruction capacity of HCFCs is believed to be significantly less than that for CFCs, concern over unrestricted chlorine input to the atmosphere from HCFC use has prompted proposals for future limits on production. Here we report the first global time-series for mixing ratios of HCFC-141b (1,1-dichloro-1-fluoroethane) and HCFC-142b (1-chloro-1,1-difluoroethane) in air collected at seven remote sampling stations. Global mean mixing ratios in mid-1993 were 0.7 parts per 1012 (ppt) for HCFC-141b and 4.3 ppt for HCFC-142b. The global atmospheric abundance of HCFC-141b increased by 0.9 ppt, or a factor of ˜3, in 1993. Global abundance of HCFC-142b increased by 1.1 ppt yr-1 during 1992-1993. The results suggest that HCFCs are currently used extensively for replacing CFCs in selected applications. Furthermore, measured levels are significantly higher than expected based on available emission estimates and consumption predictions.

Identifying external influences on global precipitation

PubMed Central

Marvel, Kate; Bonfils, Céline

2013-01-01

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle (“thermodynamic” changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt (“dynamic” changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities. PMID:24218561

Identifying external influences on global precipitation.

PubMed

Marvel, Kate; Bonfils, Céline

2013-11-26

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle ("thermodynamic" changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt ("dynamic" changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.

Protecting Pakistan's health during the global economic crisis.

PubMed

Jooma, R; Khan, A; Khan, A A

2012-03-01

The world is facing an unprecedented global economic crisis, with many countries needing to reconsider their level of health care spending. This paper explores the many consequences of the global economic turndown on Pakistan's health, including reduced government and donor spending and increased poverty with the consequent diversion of funds away from health. Nevertheless, these challenges may provide opportunities not only to mitigate the adverse effects of the economic crisis but also to institute some much-needed reforms that may not receive political support during more affluent times. Our suggestions focus on setting priorities based on the national disease burden, prioritizing prevention interventions, demanding results, curbing corruption, experimenting with innovative funding mechanisms, advocating for increased funding by presenting health spending as an investment rather than an expense and by selected recourse to civil society interventions and philanthropy to bridge the gap between available and needed resources.

Association of screen time with self-perceived attention problems and hyperactivity levels in French students: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Guichard, Elie; Kurth, Tobias

2016-01-01

Objective To investigate whether high levels of screen time exposure are associated with self-perceived levels of attention problems and hyperactivity in higher education students. Design Cross-sectional study among participants of the i-Share cohort. Setting French-speaking students of universities and higher education institutions. Participants 4816 graduate students who were at least 18 years old. Exposure Screen time was assessed by self-report of the average time spent on five different screen activities on smartphone, television, computer and tablet and categorised into quartiles. Main outcome measure We used the Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Self-Report Scale (ASRS-v1.1) concerning students’ behaviour over the past 6 months to measure self-perceived levels of attention problems and hyperactivity. Responses were summarised into a global score as well as scores for attention problems and hyperactivity. Results The 4816 participants of this study had a mean age of 20.8 years and 75.5% were female. Multivariable ordinary regression models showed significant associations of screen time exposure with quintiles of the total score of self-perceived attention problems and hyperactivity levels as well as the individual domains. Compared to the lowest screen time exposure category, the ORs (95% CI) were 1.58 (1.37 to 1.82) for each increasing level of quintiles of the global score, 1.57 (1.36 to 1.81) for increasing quintiles of attention levels and 1.25 (1.09 to 1.44) for increasing quartiles of hyperactivity. Conclusions Results of this large cross-sectional study among French university and higher education students show dose-dependent associations between screen time and self-perceived levels of attention problems and hyperactivity. Further studies are warranted to evaluate whether interventions could positively influence these associations. PMID:26920440

Implications of cumulative GHG Emissions to Climate, Society and Ecosystems in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Pierce, D. W.

2016-12-01

We investigate simulations conducted for the ongoing Climate Change Assessments in California. In this presentation, we explore implications of global climate change threshold targets on temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, snow pack, and extreme events including heat waves, wildfire and coastal flooding in California. A set of regional models driven by an ensemble of global climate change futures from 4th and 5th IPCC Assessment GCMs indicate how California's climate and thus its hydrological systems, coast and wildlands respond to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that produce global warming of 1.5°C and beyond. Differing global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios would produce strongly diverging results after mid-21st Century, as emphasized by the suite of modeled regional climate measures. The results demonstrate that global emissions can be used, independent of emissions pathway (but not entirely and not for all climate and impact measures), to estimate physical changes at the local and regional levels in the State. These relationships are explored to re-interpret prior studies that were based on the SRES emission scenarios along with the current suite of RCP scenarios. In addition, because historical emissions are above what was envisioned for the RCPs, and since the 2015 Conference of Parties implies a departure from the RCPs, consideration of cumulative CO2 emissions provides a useful tool for contextualizing historical emissions and expected outcomes from COP21. Climate policy implications are described, including climate adaptation guidance that California entities are required or encouraged to follow.

Global health experiences of U.S. Physicians: a mixed methods survey of clinician-researchers and health policy leaders.

PubMed

Greysen, S Ryan; Richards, Adam K; Coupet, Sidney; Desai, Mayur M; Padela, Aasim I

2013-05-11

Interest and participation in global health activities among U.S. medical trainees has increased sharply in recent decades, yet the global health activities of physicians who have completed residency training remain understudied. Our objectives were to assess associations between individual characteristics and patterns of post-residency global health activities across the domains of health policy, education, and research. Cross-sectional, mixed methods national survey of 521 physicians with formal training in clinical and health services research and policy leadership. Main measures were post-residency global health activity and characteristics of this activity (location, funding, products, and perceived synergy with domestic activities). Most respondents (73%) hold faculty appointments across 84 U.S. medical schools and a strong plurality (46%) are trained in internal medicine. Nearly half of all respondents (44%) reported some global health activity after residency; however, the majority of this group (73%) reported spending ≤10% of professional time on global health in the past year. Among those active in global health, the majority (78%) reported receiving some funding for their global health activities, and most (83%) reported at least one scholarly, educational, or other product resulting from this work. Many respondents perceived synergies between domestic and global health activities, with 85% agreeing with the statement that their global health activities had enhanced the quality of their domestic work and increased their level of involvement with vulnerable populations, health policy advocacy, or research on the social determinants of health. Despite these perceived synergies, qualitative data from in-depth interviews revealed personal and institutional barriers to sustained global health involvement, including work-family balance and a lack of specific avenues for career development in global health. Post-residency global health activity is common in this diverse, multi-specialty group of physicians. Although those with global health experience describe synergies with their domestic work, the lack of established career development pathways may limit the benefits of this synergy for individuals and their institutions.

Alternative uses of highway rights-of-way : accommodating renewable energy technologies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-01-01

In recent years, the capacity, generation, and consumption of energy derived from renewable sources have grown significantly on a global level. To increase renewable energy production in the near term, state and local transportation agencies have rec...

Global tropospheric chemistry: A plan for action

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

Prompted by an increasing awareness of the influence of human activity on the chemistry of the global troposphere, a panel was formed to (1) assess the requirement for a global study of the chemistry of the troposphere; (2) develop a scientific strategy for a comprehensive plan taking into account the existing and projected programs of the government; (3) assess the requirements of a global study in terms of theoretical knowledge, numerical modeling, instrumentation, observing platforms, ground-level observational techniques, and other related needs; and (4) outline the appropriate sequence and coordination required to achieve the most effective utilization of available resources. Part 1 presents a coordinated national blueprint for scientific investigations of biogeochemical cycles in the global troposphere. part 2 presents much of the background information of the present knowledge and gaps in the understanding of tropospheric chemical cycles and processes from which the proposed program was developed.