Chickenpox and Risk of Stroke: A Self-controlled Case Series Analysis

PubMed Central

Thomas, Sara L.; Minassian, Caroline; Ganesan, Vijeya; Langan, Sinéad M.; Smeeth, Liam

2014-01-01

Background. There is good evidence that respiratory and other infections that cause systemic inflammation can trigger strokes; however, the role of specific infections is unclear. Case reports have highlighted chickenpox as a possible risk factor for arterial ischemic stroke, particularly in children, but rigorous studies are needed to determine and quantify any increased risk. Methods. We used anonymized electronic health records totaling >100 million person-years of observation from 4 UK primary care databases to identify individuals who had documented clinical chickenpox and a stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Self-controlled case series methods were used to quantify any increased risk of first stroke or TIA in the 0–6 and 7–12 months following chickenpox compared to other observed time periods. We analyzed data within each database, and performed meta-analyses to obtain summary age-adjusted incidence ratios (IRs) separately for adults and children. Results. Five hundred sixty eligible individuals (including 60 children) were identified who experienced chickenpox and a stroke or TIA during follow-up. Among children, there was a 4-fold increased risk of stroke in the 0–6 months after chickenpox (summary IR = 4.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.96–8.45; I2 = 0%). Among adults, there was a less marked increased risk with moderate between-database heterogeneity (random-effects summary IR = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.05–4.36; I2 = 51%). There was no significant increased risk of stroke in the 7–12 months after chickenpox in children or adults, nor was there evidence of increased risk of TIA in either time period. Conclusions. Our study provides new evidence that children who experience chickenpox are at increased risk of stroke in the subsequent 6 months. PMID:24092802

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

Increased Cancer Risks in Myotonic Dystrophy

PubMed Central

Win, Aung Ko; Perattur, Promilla G.; Pulido, Jose S.; Pulido, Christine M.; Lindor, Noralane M.

2012-01-01

Objective To estimate cancer risks for patients with myotonic dystrophy, given that increased risks for neoplasms in association with myotonic dystrophy type 1 and type 2 have been suggested in several studies but the risks of cancers have not been quantified. Patients and Methods A cohort of 307 patients with myotonic dystrophy identified from medical records of Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN, from January 1, l993, through May 28, 2010, was retrospectively analyzed. We estimated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of specific cancers for patients with myotonic dystrophy compared with age- and sex-specific cancer incidences of the general population. Age-dependent cumulative risks were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results A total of 53 cancers were observed at a median age at diagnosis of 55 years. Patients with myotonic dystrophy had an increased risk of thyroid cancer (SIR, 5.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80-12.93; P=.001) and choroidal melanoma (SIR, 27.54; 95% CI, 3.34-99.49; P<.001). They may also have an increased risk of testicular cancer (SIR, 5.09; 95% CI, 0.62-18.38; P=.06) and prostate cancer (SIR, 2.21; 95% CI, 0.95-4.35; P=.05). The estimated cumulative risks at age 50 years were 1.72% (95% CI, 0.64%-4.55%) for thyroid cancer and 1.00% (95% CI, 0.25%-3.92%) for choroidal melanoma. There was no statistical evidence of an increased risk of brain, breast, colorectal, lung, renal, bladder, endometrial, or ovarian cancer; lymphoma; leukemia; or multiple myeloma. Conclusion Patients with myotonic dystrophy may have an increased risk of thyroid cancer and choroidal melanoma and, possibly, testicular and prostate cancers. PMID:22237010

Are Students with Asthma at Increased Risk for Being a Victim of Bullying in School or Cyberspace? Findings from the 2011 Florida Youth Risk Behavior Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibson-Young, Linda; Martinasek, Mary P.; Clutter, Michiko; Forrest, Jamie

2014-01-01

Background: Adolescents with asthma are at risk for psychological and behavioral problems. The aim of this study was to determine whether high school students with asthma are at increased risk for bullying in school and cyberspace, and to explore the role of depressive symptoms in moderating this association. Methods: A secondary data analysis was…

Assessing environmental risks for high intensity agriculture using the material flow analysis method--a case study of the Dongting Lake basin in South Central China.

PubMed

Yin, Guanyi; Liu, Liming; Yuan, Chengcheng

2015-07-01

This study primarily examined the assessment of environmental risk in high intensity agricultural areas. Dongting Lake basin was taken as a case study, which is one of the major grain producing areas in China. Using data obtained from 1989 to 2012, we applied Material Flow Analysis (MFA) to show the material consumption, pollutant output and production storage in the agricultural-environmental system and assessed the environmental risk index on the basis of the MFA results. The results predicted that the status of the environmental quality of the Dongting Lake area is unsatisfactory for the foreseeable future. The direct material input (DMI) declined by 13.9%, the domestic processed output (DPO) increased by 28.21%, the intensity of material consumption (IMC) decreased by 36.7%, the intensity of material discharge (IMD) increased by 10%, the material productivity (MP) increased by 27 times, the environmental efficiency (EE) increased by 15.31 times, and the material storage (PAS) increased by 0.23%. The DMI and DPO was higher at rural places on the edge of cities, whereas the risk of urban agriculture has arisen due to the higher increasing rate of DMI and DPO in cities compared with the counties. The composite environmental risk index increased from 0.33 to 0.96, indicating that the total environmental risk changed gradually but seriously during the 24 years assessed. The driving factors that affect environmental risk in high intensity agriculture can be divided into five classes: social, economic, human, natural and disruptive incidents. This study discussed a number of effective measures for protecting the environment while ensuring food production yields. Additional research in other areas and certain improvements of this method in future studies may be necessary to develop a more effective method of managing and controlling agricultural-environmental interactions.

Young People's Risk of Suicide Attempts after Contact with a Psychiatric Department--A Nested Case-Control Design Using Danish Register Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christiansen, Erik; Larsen, Kim Juul

2012-01-01

Background: There seems to be an increased risk of children and adolescents committing or attempting suicide after contact with a psychiatric department. Children and adolescents living in families with low socio-economic status (SES) might have an especially increased suicide attempt risk. Methods: A complete extraction of Danish register data…

Contraception for the older woman.

PubMed

Glasier, A; Gebbie, A

1996-04-01

Contraception presents particular problems for women over the age of 40. Although fertility is declining and the risk of pregnancy may be small, the consequences of an unplanned pregnancy may be socially devastating and medically ill-advised. Menstrual dysfunction and psychosexual difficulties increase with age and may exacerbate the side-effects of some methods of contraception. The long-term risks of combined hormonal contraception, particularly cardiovascular disease, become more pertinent to women whose natural risk of disease increases with age. Patterns of sexual activity and contraceptive use change with age. The advantages and disadvantages of currently available methods of contraception are difficult to quantify, and the choice of method is very much a matter for individual concern. The increasing prevalence of HRT may complicate matters for some women who are unsure for how long to continue using contraception. Contraceptives of the future may be designed to improve the reproductive health of all women, particularly those approaching the menopause.

Preferences regarding targeted education and risk assessment in people with a family history of major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Quinn, Veronica; Meiser, Bettina; Wilde, Alex; Cousins, Zoe; Barlow-Stewart, Kristine; Mitchell, Philip B; Schofield, Peter R

2014-10-01

Genetic testing for susceptibility to major depressive disorder (MDD) is not available for clinical use at present. Given this, family history remains the best predictor for development of MDD, and family-history-based risk assessment and information about familial aspects of MDD may be useful to clients at increased risk for MDD attending for genetic counseling. This study uses a mixed-methods design to assess the information needs and preferences of people at increased familial risk for MDD. Telephone interviews were conducted with 23 individuals, who had at least one first-degree relative with MDD and were recruited through advertisements placed on depression education websites. The most preferred way to access depression information was via the internet (87 % of participants), although this preference may have been due to the internet-based recruitment method. The second most preferred dissemination strategy (56 %) was face-to-face delivery through a health professional, including genetic counselors. Individuals reported a need for information about etiology and development of MDD, reproductive decision-making, early detection of symptoms and risk-reducing strategies. Nearly all participants expressed an interest in risk assessment. The present study found evidence of a high level of interest for information targeted to people at increased familial risk for MDD. Genetic counselors are likely to be called upon increasingly to provide supportive counseling to assist clients at increased familial risk in interpreting and contextualizing such information once it becomes available.

Obesity and hormonal contraceptive efficacy.

PubMed

Robinson, Jennifer A; Burke, Anne E

2013-09-01

Obesity is a major public health concern affecting an increasing proportion of reproductive-aged women. Avoiding unintended pregnancy is of major importance, given the increased risks associated with pregnancy, but obesity may affect the efficacy of hormonal contraceptives by altering how these drugs are absorbed, distributed, metabolized or eliminated. Limited data suggest that long-acting, reversible contraceptives maintain excellent efficacy in obese women. Some studies demonstrating altered pharmacokinetic parameters and increased failure rates with combined oral contraceptives, the contraceptive patch and emergency contraceptive pills suggest decreased efficacy of these methods. It is unclear whether bariatric surgery affects hormonal contraceptive efficacy. Obese women should be offered the full range of contraceptive options, with counseling that balances the risks and benefits of each method, including the risk of unintended pregnancy.

Prenatal and Perinatal Risk Factors in a Twin Study of Autism Spectrum Disorders

PubMed Central

Froehlich-Santino, Wendy; Tobon, Amalia Londono; Cleveland, Sue; Torres, Andrea; Phillips, Jennifer; Cohen, Brianne; Torigoe, Tiffany; Miller, Janet; Fedele, Angie; Collins, Jack; Smith, Karen; Lotspeich, Linda; Croen, Lisa A.; Ozonoff, Sally; Lajonchere, Clara; Grether, Judith K.; O’Hara, Ruth; Hallmayer, Joachim

2014-01-01

Introduction Multiple studies associate prenatal and perinatal complications with increased risks for autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). The objectives of this study were to utilize a twin study design to 1) Investigate whether shared gestational and perinatal factors increase concordance for ASDs in twins, 2) Determine whether individual neonatal factors are associated with the presence of ASDs in twins, and 3) Explore whether associated factors may influence males and females differently. Methods Data from medical records and parent response questionnaires from 194 twin pairs, in which at least one twin had an ASD, were analyzed. Results Shared factors including parental age, prenatal use of medications, uterine bleeding, and prematurity did not increase concordance risks for ASDs in twins. Among the individual factors, respiratory distress demonstrated the strongest association with increased risk for ASDs in the group as a whole (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.27–3.51). Furthermore, respiratory distress (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.12–4.67) and other markers of hypoxia (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.04–3.80) were associated with increased risks for ASDs in males, while jaundice was associated with an increased risk for ASDs in females (OR 2.94, 95% CI 1.28–6.74). Conclusions Perinatal factors associated with respiratory distress and other markers of hypoxia appear to increase risk for autism in a subgroup of twins. Future studies examining potential gender differences and additional prenatal, perinatal and postnatal environmental factors are required for elucidating the etiology of ASDs and suggesting new methods for treatment and prevention. PMID:24726638

A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

2016-08-01

Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

Quantifying women's stated benefit-risk trade-off preferences for IBS treatment outcomes.

PubMed

Johnson, F Reed; Hauber, A Brett; Ozdemir, Semra; Lynd, Larry

2010-01-01

The Food and Drug Administration, currently, is exploring quantitative benefit-risk methods to support regulatory decision-making. A scientifically valid method for assessing patients' benefit-risk trade-off preferences is needed to compare risks and benefits in a common metric. The study aims to quantify the maximum acceptable risk (MAR) of treatment-related adverse events (AEs) that women with diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) are willing to accept in exchange for symptom relief. A stated-choice survey was used to elicit trade-off preferences among constructed treatment profiles, each defined by symptom severity and treatment-related AEs. Symptom attributes included frequency of abdominal pain and discomfort, frequency of diarrhea, and frequency of urgency. AE attributes included frequency of mild-to-moderate constipation and the risk of four possible serious AEs. A Web-enabled survey was administered to 589 female US residents at least 18 years of age with a self-reported diagnosis of diarrhea-predominant IBS. Preference weights and MAR were estimated using mixed-logit methods. SUBJECTS were willing to accept higher risks of serious AEs in return for treatments offering better symptom control. For an improvement from the lowest to the highest of four benefit levels, subjects were willing to tolerate a 2.65% increase in impacted-bowel risk, but only a 1.34% increase in perforated-bowel risk. Variation in MARs across AE types is consistent with the relative seriousness of the AEs. Stated-preference methods offer a scientifically valid approach to quantifying benefit-risk trade-off preferences that can be used to inform regulatory decision-making.

Diagnostic accuracy of different caries risk assessment methods. A systematic review.

PubMed

Senneby, Anna; Mejàre, Ingegerd; Sahlin, Nils-Eric; Svensäter, Gunnel; Rohlin, Madeleine

2015-12-01

To evaluate the accuracy of different methods used to identify individuals with increased risk of developing dental coronal caries. Studies on following methods were included: previous caries experience, tests using microbiota, buffering capacity, salivary flow rate, oral hygiene, dietary habits and sociodemographic variables. QUADAS-2 was used to assess risk of bias. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated. Quality of evidence based on ≥3 studies of a method was rated according to GRADE. PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and reference lists of included publications were searched up to January 2015. From 5776 identified articles, 18 were included. Assessment of study quality identified methodological limitations concerning study design, test technology and reporting. No study presented low risk of bias in all domains. Three or more studies were found only for previous caries experience and salivary mutans streptococci and quality of evidence for these methods was low. Evidence regarding other methods was lacking. For previous caries experience, sensitivity ranged between 0.21 and 0.94 and specificity between 0.20 and 1. Tests using salivary mutans streptococci resulted in low sensitivity and high specificity. For children with primary teeth at baseline, pooled LR for a positive test was 3 for previous caries experience and 4 for salivary mutans streptococci, given a threshold ≥10(5) CFU/ml. Evidence on the validity of analysed methods used for caries risk assessment is limited. As methodological quality was low, there is a need to improve study design. Low validity for the analysed methods may lead to patients with increased risk not being identified, whereas some are falsely identified as being at risk. As caries risk assessment guides individualized decisions on interventions and intervals for patient recall, improved performance based on best evidence is greatly needed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Review of methods to prevent and reduce the risk of Lyme disease.

PubMed

Lindsay, L R; Ogden, N H; Schofield, S W

2015-06-04

Cases of Lyme disease and areas with self-sustaining populations of vector ticks are increasing in Canada. This trend is expected to continue. Preventing Lyme disease will therefore become relevant to an increasing number of Canadians. To summarize methods for reducing the risk of tick bites and preventing transmission once a tick is feeding. A literature search was conducted to identify methods to reduce the risk of tick bites and the abundance of vector ticks, as well as the risk of becoming infected with the Lyme disease pathogen, Borrelia burgdorferi (BB), if bitten by a vector tick. Current approaches to reducing the risk of tick bites or preventing infection with BB once bitten are largely reliant on the individual. They include use of topical repellents, use of protective clothing, avoidance of risk areas and removing ticks soon (ideally within a day) after they attach. These methods are efficacious, but constrained by user adherence. Other approaches such as landscape modification or the use of acaricides to control ticks, have shown promise in other countries, but have not been widely adopted in Canada. Lyme disease will continue to present a threat in Canada. In additional to the existing interventions for prevention of tick bites and Lyme disease, there is a need for new tools to help reduce the risk of Lyme disease to Canadians.

WORKSHOP ON APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS TO BIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Biologically-based pharmacokinetic models are being increasingly used in the risk assessment of environmental chemicals. These models are based on biological, mathematical, statistical and engineering principles. Their potential uses in risk assessment include extrapolation betwe...

Time-based collision risk modeling for air traffic management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Alan E.

Since the emergence of commercial aviation in the early part of last century, economic forces have driven a steadily increasing demand for air transportation. Increasing density of aircraft operating in a finite volume of airspace is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the risk of collision, and in response to a growing number of incidents and accidents involving collisions between aircraft, governments worldwide have developed air traffic control systems and procedures to mitigate this risk. The objective of any collision risk management system is to project conflicts and provide operators with sufficient opportunity to recognize potential collisions and take necessary actions to avoid them. It is therefore the assertion of this research that the currency of collision risk management is time. Future Air Traffic Management Systems are being designed around the foundational principle of four dimensional trajectory based operations, a method that replaces legacy first-come, first-served sequencing priorities with time-based reservations throughout the airspace system. This research will demonstrate that if aircraft are to be sequenced in four dimensions, they must also be separated in four dimensions. In order to separate aircraft in four dimensions, time must emerge as the primary tool by which air traffic is managed. A functional relationship exists between the time-based performance of aircraft, the interval between aircraft scheduled to cross some three dimensional point in space, and the risk of collision. This research models that relationship and presents two key findings. First, a method is developed by which the ability of an aircraft to meet a required time of arrival may be expressed as a robust standard for both industry and operations. Second, a method by which airspace system capacity may be increased while maintaining an acceptable level of collision risk is presented and demonstrated for the purpose of formulating recommendations for procedures regulating air traffic management methods and industry standards governing performance requirements for avionics designed to support trajectory based operations.

Incidence, risk factors, and pregnancy outcomes of gestational diabetes mellitus using one-step versus two-step diagnostic approaches: A population-based cohort study in Isfahan, Iran.

PubMed

Hosseini, Elham; Janghorbani, Mohsen; Aminorroaya, Ashraf

2018-06-01

To study the incidence, risk factors, and pregnancy outcomes associated with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) diagnosed with one-step and two-step screening approaches. 1000 pregnant women who were eligible and consented to participate underwent fasting plasma glucose testing at the first prenatal visit (6-14 weeks). The women free from GDM or overt diabetes were screened at 24-28 weeks using the 50-g glucose challenge test (GCT) followed by 100-g, 3-h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) (two-step method). Regardless of the GCT result, all women underwent a 75-g, 2-h OGTT within one-week interval (one-step method). GDM incidence using the one-step and two-step methods was 9.3% (95% CI: 7.4-11.2) and 4.2% (95% CI: 2.9-5.5). GDM significantly increased the risk of macrosomia, gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, and cesarean section and older age and family history of diabetes significantly increased the risk of developing GDM in both approaches. In two-step method, higher pre-pregnancy body mass index and lower physical activity during pregnancy along with higher earlier cesarean section also increased significantly the risk of developing GDM. Despite a higher incidence of GDM using the one-step approach, more risk factors for and a stronger effect of GDM on adverse pregnancy outcomes were found when using the two-step approach. Longer follow-up of women with and without GDM may change the results using both approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A method to determine the protection zone of chemical industrial park considering air quality, health risk and environmental risk: a case study.

PubMed

Shi, Jingang; Zhang, Mingbo; Li, Dong; Liu, Jia

2018-04-01

In China, chemical enterprises are required to cluster into a large number of chemical industrial parks (CIPs), which increase risks and threats to the environment and human being's health due to aggregation of the complicated chemical process and huge unit scale. Setting a scientific and reasonable protection zone around CIP is a very efficient way to protect surrounding people's health. A method was designed to determine the comprehensive protection zone of CIP, taking into account multiple factors: air quality, health risk and environmental risk. By establishing a comprehensive and multi-levels index system, the protection zone and the corresponding environmental risk management countermeasures can be proposed hierarchically, which are very important to the development and environmental risk management of CIP. A CIP located in coastal area of Shandong Province was studied, and it is turned out that the method to determine the protection zone of chemical industrial park considering air quality, health risk and environmental risk has great advantages compared with other methods.

Identification of Hotspots of Genetic Risk for Type 2 Diabetes Using GIS Methods

EPA Science Inventory

BACKGROUND: Having the ability to scan the entire country for potential "hotspots" with increased risk of developing chronic diseases due to various environmental, demographic, and genetic susceptibility factors may inform risk management decisions and enable better env...

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Challinor, Andrew J; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin

2018-01-01

Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions underlying these ranges are not always clear. We suggest that the contingency of results upon assumptions is made explicit via a common uncertainty reporting format; and/or that studies are assessed against a set of criteria, such as those presented in this paper.

Risk of Skin Cancer from Space Radiation. Chapter 11

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; George, Kerry A.; Wu, Hong-Lu

2003-01-01

We review the methods for estimating the probability of increased incidence of skin cancers from space radiation exposure, and describe some of the individual factors that may contribute to risk projection models, including skin pigment, and synergistic effects of combined ionizing and UV exposure. The steep dose gradients from trapped electrons, protons, and heavy ions radiation during EVA and limitations in EVA dosimetry are important factors for projecting skin cancer risk of astronauts. We estimate that the probability of increased skin cancer risk varies more than 10-fold for individual astronauts and that the risk of skin cancer could exceed 1 % for future lunar base operations for astronauts with light skin color and hair. Limitations in physical dosimetry in estimating the distribution of dose at the skin suggest that new biodosimetry methods be developed for responding to accidental overexposure of the skin during future space missions.

Occupational exposure to particulate air pollution and mortality due to ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease

PubMed Central

Torén, Kjell; Bergdahl, Ingvar A; Nilsson, Tohr; Järvholm, Bengt

2007-01-01

Objectives A growing number of epidemiological studies are showing that ambient exposure to particulate matter air pollution is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease; however, whether occupational exposure increases this risk is not clear. The aim of the present study was to examine whether occupational exposure to particulate air pollution increases the risk for ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. Methods The study population was a cohort of 176 309 occupationally exposed Swedish male construction workers and 71 778 unexposed male construction workers. The definition of exposure to inorganic dust (asbestos, man‐made mineral fibres, dust from cement, concrete and quartz), wood dust, fumes (metal fumes, asphalt fumes and diesel exhaust) and gases and irritants (organic solvents and reactive chemicals) was based on a job‐exposure matrix with focus on exposure in the mid‐1970s. The cohort was followed from 1971 to 2002 with regard to mortality to ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. Relative risks (RR) were obtained by the person‐years method and from Poisson regression models adjusting for baseline values of blood pressure, body mass index, age and smoking habits. Results Any occupational particulate air pollution was associated with an increased risk for ischemic heart disease (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.19), but there was no increased risk for cerebrovascular disease (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.07). There was an increased risk for ischaemic heart disease and exposure to inorganic dust (RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.12) and exposure to fumes (RR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.10), especially diesel exhaust (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.24). There was no significantly increased risk for cerebrovascular disease and exposure to inorganic dust, fumes or wood dust. Conclusions Occupational exposure to particulate air pollution, especially diesel exhaust, among construction workers increases the risk for ischaemic heart disease. PMID:17303673

Risk assessment predictions of open dumping area after closure using Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauzi, Nur Irfah Mohd; Radhi, Mohd Shahril Mat; Omar, Husaini

2017-10-01

Currently, there are many abandoned open dumping areas that were left without any proper mitigation measures. These open dumping areas could pose serious hazard to human and pollute the environment. The objective of this paper is to determine the risk assessment at the open dumping area after they has been closed using Monte Carlo Simulation method. The risk assessment exercise is conducted at the Kuala Lumpur dumping area. The rapid urbanisation of Kuala Lumpur coupled with increase in population lead to increase in waste generation. It leads to more dumping/landfill area in Kuala Lumpur. The first stage of this study involve the assessment of the dumping area and samples collections. It followed by measurement of settlement of dumping area using oedometer. The risk of the settlement is predicted using Monte Carlo simulation method. Monte Carlo simulation calculates the risk and the long-term settlement. The model simulation result shows that risk level of the Kuala Lumpur open dumping area ranges between Level III to Level IV i.e. between medium risk to high risk. These settlement (ΔH) is between 3 meters to 7 meters. Since the risk is between medium to high, it requires mitigation measures such as replacing the top waste soil with new sandy gravel soil. This will increase the strength of the soil and reduce the settlement.

A case-control study of airways obstruction among construction workers: Airways Obstruction Among Construction Workers

DOE PAGES

Dement, John; Welch, Laura; Ringen, Knut; ...

2015-06-29

Background: While smoking is the major cause of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), occupational exposures to vapors, gases, dusts, and fumes (VGDF) increase COPD risk. This case-control study estimated the risk of COPD attributable to occupational exposures among construction workers. Methods: The study population included 834 cases and 1243 controls participating in a national medical screening program for older construction workers between 1997 and 2013. Qualitative exposure indices were developed based on lifetime work and exposure histories. Results: Approximately 18% (95%CI=2–24%) of COPD risk can be attributed to construction-related exposures, which are additive to the risk contributed by smoking. Amore » measure of all VGDF exposures combined was a strong predictor of COPD risk. Conclusions: Construction workers are at increased risk of COPD as a result of broad and complex effects of many exposures acting independently or interactively. Control methods should be implemented to prevent worker exposures, and smoking cessation should be promoted« less

A case-control study of airways obstruction among construction workers: Airways Obstruction Among Construction Workers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dement, John; Welch, Laura; Ringen, Knut

Background: While smoking is the major cause of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), occupational exposures to vapors, gases, dusts, and fumes (VGDF) increase COPD risk. This case-control study estimated the risk of COPD attributable to occupational exposures among construction workers. Methods: The study population included 834 cases and 1243 controls participating in a national medical screening program for older construction workers between 1997 and 2013. Qualitative exposure indices were developed based on lifetime work and exposure histories. Results: Approximately 18% (95%CI=2–24%) of COPD risk can be attributed to construction-related exposures, which are additive to the risk contributed by smoking. Amore » measure of all VGDF exposures combined was a strong predictor of COPD risk. Conclusions: Construction workers are at increased risk of COPD as a result of broad and complex effects of many exposures acting independently or interactively. Control methods should be implemented to prevent worker exposures, and smoking cessation should be promoted« less

Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton Y.; Seliverstov, Yury G.; Glazovskaya, Tatyana G.; Turchaninova, Alla S.

2016-10-01

Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

Using risk elasticity to prioritize risk reduction strategies for geographical areas and industry sectors.

PubMed

Li, Pei-Chiun; Ma, Hwong-Wen

2016-01-25

The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Behavioral Inhibition and Risk for Developing Social Anxiety Disorder: A Meta-Analytic Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clauss, Jacqueline A.; Blackford, Jennifer Urbano

2012-01-01

Objective: Behavioral inhibition (BI) has been associated with increased risk for developing social anxiety disorder (SAD); however, the degree of risk associated with BI has yet to be systematically examined and quantified. The goal of the present study was to quantify the association between childhood BI and risk for developing SAD. Method: A…

A stereo-vision hazard-detection algorithm to increase planetary lander autonomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woicke, Svenja; Mooij, Erwin

2016-05-01

For future landings on any celestial body, increasing the lander autonomy as well as decreasing risk are primary objectives. Both risk reduction and an increase in autonomy can be achieved by including hazard detection and avoidance in the guidance, navigation, and control loop. One of the main challenges in hazard detection and avoidance is the reconstruction of accurate elevation models, as well as slope and roughness maps. Multiple methods for acquiring the inputs for hazard maps are available. The main distinction can be made between active and passive methods. Passive methods (cameras) have budgetary advantages compared to active sensors (radar, light detection and ranging). However, it is necessary to proof that these methods deliver sufficiently good maps. Therefore, this paper discusses hazard detection using stereo vision. To facilitate a successful landing not more than 1% wrong detections (hazards that are not identified) are allowed. Based on a sensitivity analysis it was found that using a stereo set-up at a baseline of ≤ 2 m is feasible at altitudes of ≤ 200 m defining false positives of less than 1%. It was thus shown that stereo-based hazard detection is an effective means to decrease the landing risk and increase the lander autonomy. In conclusion, the proposed algorithm is a promising candidate for future landers.

Methods for analyzing matched designs with double controls: excess risk is easily estimated and misinterpreted when evaluating traffic deaths.

PubMed

Redelmeier, Donald A; Tibshirani, Robert J

2018-06-01

To demonstrate analytic approaches for matched studies where two controls are linked to each case and events are accumulating counts rather than binary outcomes. A secondary intent is to clarify the distinction between total risk and excess risk (unmatched vs. matched perspectives). We review past research testing whether elections can lead to increased traffic risks. The results are reinterpreted by analyzing both the total count of individuals in fatal crashes and the excess count of individuals in fatal crashes, each time accounting for the matched double controls. Overall, 1,546 individuals were in fatal crashes on the 10 election days (average = 155/d), and 2,593 individuals were in fatal crashes on the 20 control days (average = 130/d). Poisson regression of total counts yielded a relative risk of 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 1.12-1.27). Poisson regression of excess counts yielded a relative risk of 3.22 (95% confidence interval: 2.72-3.80). The discrepancy between analyses of total counts and excess counts replicated with alternative statistical models and was visualized in graphical displays. Available approaches provide methods for analyzing count data in matched designs with double controls and help clarify the distinction between increases in total risk and increases in excess risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sexual behaviour and risk of sexually transmitted infections in young female healthcare students in Spain

PubMed Central

Navarro-Cremades, Felipe; Marhuenda-Amorós, Dolores; Tomás-Rodríguez, María Isabel; Antón-Ruiz, Fina; Belda-Ibañez, Josefina; Montejo, Ángel Luis; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

2016-01-01

Background. Several authors have examined the risk for sexually transmitted infections (STI), but no study has yet analyzed it solely in relation with sexual behaviour in women. We analyzed the association of sexual behaviour with STI risk in female university students of healthcare sciences. Methods. We designed a cross-sectional study assessing over three months vaginal intercourse with a man. The study involved 175 female university students, without a stable partner, studying healthcare sciences in Spain. Main outcome variable: STI risk (not always using male condoms). Secondary variables: sexual behaviour, method of orgasm, desire to increase the frequency of sexual relations, desire to have more variety in sexual relations, frequency of sexual intercourse with the partner, and age. The information was collected with an original questionnaire. A logistic regression model was used to estimate the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) in order to analyze the association between the STI risk and the study variables. Results. Of the 175 women, 52 were positive for STI risk (29.7%, 95% CI [22.9–36.5%]). Factors significantly associated with STI risk (p < 0.05) included: orgasm (not having orgasms →OR = 7.01, 95% CI [1.49–33.00]; several methods →OR = 0.77, 95% CI [0.31–1.90]; one single method →OR = 1; p = 0.008) and desiring an increased frequency of sexual activities (OR = 0.27, 95% CI [0.13–0.59], p < 0.001). Conclusions. Women’s desire for sexual activities and their sexual function were significant predictors of their risk for STI. Information about sexual function is an intrinsic aspect of sexual behaviour and should be taken into consideration when seeking approaches to reduce risks for STI. PMID:26966654

Sexual Risk Behavior and Heavy Drinking Among Weekly Marijuana Users

PubMed Central

Metrik, Jane; Caswell, Amy J.; Magill, Molly; Monti, Peter M.; Kahler, Christopher W.

2016-01-01

Objective: Sexual behavior that incurs increased risk for sexually transmitted infections and HIV incidence is associated with both heavy alcohol and marijuana use. Whereas detrimental effects of alcohol on increased sexual risk have been documented in event-level and laboratory studies, less is known about the combined use of alcohol and marijuana and their relative impact on sexual risk behavior. We examined the degree to which both heavy drinking and marijuana use were associated with condomless sexual intercourse with casual versus main partners in a sample of weekly marijuana smokers. Method: Participants reported substance use and sexual activity using a 60-day Timeline Followback interview method (n = 112). Results: Results of generalized estimating equations indicated that both alcohol and marijuana use were independently associated with greater odds of having sexual intercourse but were not associated with greater odds of unprotected sex with a casual partner. Heavy drinking on a given day was associated with increased odds of having casual protected sex. Using both substances synergistically increased the likelihood of unprotected sex with a main partner. Conclusions: Findings suggest that behaviors posing higher sexual risk (condomless intercourse or sex with casual partners) occur on days when alcohol use exceeds moderate drinking guidelines. Interventions designed to reduce sexual risk behaviors may need to specifically target heavy drinking alone or when used with marijuana. PMID:26751360

The value of customised centiles in assessing perinatal mortality risk associated with parity and maternal size.

PubMed

Gardosi, J; Clausson, B; Francis, A

2009-09-01

We wanted to compare customised and population standards for defining smallness for gestational age (SGA) in the assessment of perinatal mortality risk associated with parity and maternal size. Population-based cohort study. Sweden. Swedish Birth Registry database 1992-1995 with 354 205 complete records. Coefficients were derived and applied to determine SGA by the fully customised method, or by adjustment for fetal sex only, and using the same fetal weight standard. Perinatal deaths and rates of small for gestational age (SGA) babies within subgroups stratified by parity, body mass index (BMI) and maternal size within the BMI range of 20.0-24.9. Perinatal mortality rates (PMR) had a U-shaped distribution in parity groups, increased proportionately with maternal BMI, and had no association with maternal size within the normal BMI range. For each of these subgroups, SGA rates determined by the customised method showed strong association with the PMR. In contrast, SGA based on uncustomised, population-based centiles had poor correlation with perinatal mortality. The increased perinatal mortality risk in pregnancies of obese mothers was associated with an increased risk of SGA using customised centiles, and a decreased risk of SGA using population-based centiles. The use of customised centiles to determine SGA improves the identification of pregnancies which are at increased risk of perinatal death.

Failure mode and effects analysis: a comparison of two common risk prioritisation methods.

PubMed

McElroy, Lisa M; Khorzad, Rebeca; Nannicelli, Anna P; Brown, Alexandra R; Ladner, Daniela P; Holl, Jane L

2016-05-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a method of risk assessment increasingly used in healthcare over the past decade. The traditional method, however, can require substantial time and training resources. The goal of this study is to compare a simplified scoring method with the traditional scoring method to determine the degree of congruence in identifying high-risk failures. An FMEA of the operating room (OR) to intensive care unit (ICU) handoff was conducted. Failures were scored and ranked using both the traditional risk priority number (RPN) and criticality-based method, and a simplified method, which designates failures as 'high', 'medium' or 'low' risk. The degree of congruence was determined by first identifying those failures determined to be critical by the traditional method (RPN≥300), and then calculating the per cent congruence with those failures designated critical by the simplified methods (high risk). In total, 79 process failures among 37 individual steps in the OR to ICU handoff process were identified. The traditional method yielded Criticality Indices (CIs) ranging from 18 to 72 and RPNs ranging from 80 to 504. The simplified method ranked 11 failures as 'low risk', 30 as medium risk and 22 as high risk. The traditional method yielded 24 failures with an RPN ≥300, of which 22 were identified as high risk by the simplified method (92% agreement). The top 20% of CI (≥60) included 12 failures, of which six were designated as high risk by the simplified method (50% agreement). These results suggest that the simplified method of scoring and ranking failures identified by an FMEA can be a useful tool for healthcare organisations with limited access to FMEA expertise. However, the simplified method does not result in the same degree of discrimination in the ranking of failures offered by the traditional method. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Quantitative Risk Mapping of Urban Gas Pipeline Networks Using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azari, P.; Karimi, M.

2017-09-01

Natural gas is considered an important source of energy in the world. By increasing growth of urbanization, urban gas pipelines which transmit natural gas from transmission pipelines to consumers, will become a dense network. The increase in the density of urban pipelines will influence probability of occurring bad accidents in urban areas. These accidents have a catastrophic effect on people and their property. Within the next few years, risk mapping will become an important component in urban planning and management of large cities in order to decrease the probability of accident and to control them. Therefore, it is important to assess risk values and determine their location on urban map using an appropriate method. In the history of risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks, the pipelines has always been considered one by one and their density in urban area has not been considered. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of several pipelines on the risk value of a specific grid point. This paper outlines a quantitative risk assessment method for analysing the risk of urban natural gas pipeline networks. It consists of two main parts: failure rate calculation where the EGIG historical data are used and fatal length calculation that involves calculation of gas release and fatality rate of consequences. We consider jet fire, fireball and explosion for investigating the consequences of gas pipeline failure. The outcome of this method is an individual risk and is shown as a risk map.

Balancing precision and risk: should multiple detection methods be analyzed separately in N-mixture models?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, Tabitha A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kendall, Katherine C.; Beier, Paul; Stetz, Jeffrey B.; Macleod, Amy C.

2012-01-01

Using multiple detection methods can increase the number, kind, and distribution of individuals sampled, which may increase accuracy and precision and reduce cost of population abundance estimates. However, when variables influencing abundance are of interest, if individuals detected via different methods are influenced by the landscape differently, separate analysis of multiple detection methods may be more appropriate. We evaluated the effects of combining two detection methods on the identification of variables important to local abundance using detections of grizzly bears with hair traps (systematic) and bear rubs (opportunistic). We used hierarchical abundance models (N-mixture models) with separate model components for each detection method. If both methods sample the same population, the use of either data set alone should (1) lead to the selection of the same variables as important and (2) provide similar estimates of relative local abundance. We hypothesized that the inclusion of 2 detection methods versus either method alone should (3) yield more support for variables identified in single method analyses (i.e. fewer variables and models with greater weight), and (4) improve precision of covariate estimates for variables selected in both separate and combined analyses because sample size is larger. As expected, joint analysis of both methods increased precision as well as certainty in variable and model selection. However, the single-method analyses identified different variables and the resulting predicted abundances had different spatial distributions. We recommend comparing single-method and jointly modeled results to identify the presence of individual heterogeneity between detection methods in N-mixture models, along with consideration of detection probabilities, correlations among variables, and tolerance to risk of failing to identify variables important to a subset of the population. The benefits of increased precision should be weighed against those risks. The analysis framework presented here will be useful for other species exhibiting heterogeneity by detection method.

Stratospheric solar geoengineering without ozone loss.

PubMed

Keith, David W; Weisenstein, Debra K; Dykema, John A; Keutsch, Frank N

2016-12-27

Injecting sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere, the most frequently analyzed proposal for solar geoengineering, may reduce some climate risks, but it would also entail new risks, including ozone loss and heating of the lower tropical stratosphere, which, in turn, would increase water vapor concentration causing additional ozone loss and surface warming. We propose a method for stratospheric aerosol climate modification that uses a solid aerosol composed of alkaline metal salts that will convert hydrogen halides and nitric and sulfuric acids into stable salts to enable stratospheric geoengineering while reducing or reversing ozone depletion. Rather than minimizing reactive effects by reducing surface area using high refractive index materials, this method tailors the chemical reactivity. Specifically, we calculate that injection of calcite (CaCO 3 ) aerosol particles might reduce net radiative forcing while simultaneously increasing column ozone toward its preanthropogenic baseline. A radiative forcing of -1 W⋅m -2 , for example, might be achieved with a simultaneous 3.8% increase in column ozone using 2.1 Tg⋅y -1 of 275-nm radius calcite aerosol. Moreover, the radiative heating of the lower stratosphere would be roughly 10-fold less than if that same radiative forcing had been produced using sulfate aerosol. Although solar geoengineering cannot substitute for emissions cuts, it may supplement them by reducing some of the risks of climate change. Further research on this and similar methods could lead to reductions in risks and improved efficacy of solar geoengineering methods.

Vitamin D and Fractures in People with Intellectual Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vanlint, S.; Nugent, M.

2006-01-01

Background: People with intellectual disability (ID) are thought to be at an increased risk of fractures. The extent of this increase in risk has been incompletely documented in the literature, and the underlying reasons remain to be elucidated. Methods: The aims of our study were to document the vitamin D status and fracture incidence in an…

Predicting high risk births with contraceptive prevalence and contraceptive method-mix in an ecologic analysis.

PubMed

Perin, Jamie; Amouzou, Agbessi; Walker, Neff

2017-11-07

Increased contraceptive use has been associated with a decrease in high parity births, births that occur close together in time, and births to very young or to older women. These types of births are also associated with high risk of under-five mortality. Previous studies have looked at the change in the level of contraception use and the average change in these types of high-risk births. We aim to predict the distribution of births in a specific country when there is a change in the level and method of modern contraception. We used data from full birth histories and modern contraceptive use from 207 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys covering 71 countries to describe the distribution of births in each survey based on birth order, preceding birth space, and mother's age at birth. We estimated the ecologic associations between the prevalence and method-mix of modern contraceptives and the proportion of births in each category. Hierarchical modelling was applied to these aggregated cross sectional proportions, so that random effects were estimated for countries with multiple surveys. We use these results to predict the change in type of births associated with scaling up modern contraception in three different scenarios. We observed marked differences between regions, in the absolute rates of contraception, the types of contraceptives in use, and in the distribution of type of birth. Contraceptive method-mix was a significant determinant of proportion of high-risk births, especially for birth spacing, but also for mother's age and parity. Increased use of modern contraceptives is especially predictive of reduced parity and more births with longer preceding space. However, increased contraception alone is not associated with fewer births to women younger than 18 years or a decrease in short-spaced births. Both the level and the type of contraception are important factors in determining the effects of family planning on changes in distribution of high-risk births. The best predictions for how birth risk changes with increased modern contraception and for different contraception methods allow for more nuanced predictions specific to each country and can aid better planning for the scaling up of modern contraception.

Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food.

PubMed

Jacobs, Rianne; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5-200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

Dietary food groups intake and cooking methods associations with pancreatic cancer: a case-control study.

PubMed

Ghorbani, Zeinab; Hekmatdoost, Azita; Zinab, Hassan Eini; Farrokhzad, Solmaz; Rahimi, Roya; Malekzadeh, Reza; Pourshams, Akram

2015-05-01

The role of dietary habits in the etiology of pancreatic cancer (PC) has not yet been well elucidated. The aim of the present study was to examine the association of the frequency of different food groups' intake and their cooking methods with PC risk based on a well-designed case-control study. A case-control study including 307 PC patients and 322 controls referred to four tertiary endosonography centers was conducted from January 2011 to January 2014 to compare the frequency intake of different food items and their cooking methods between cases and controls. After adjustment for gender, age, body mass index, years of education, diabetes and alcohol history, smoking status, and opium use, a significant direct relationship was observed between PC risk and intake frequency (time/week) of bread (OR = 1.50; 95 % CI 1.05-2.13; p-value 0.024), rice (OR = 2.10; 95 % CI 1.15-3.82; p for trend 0.034), and red meat (OR = 2.25; 95 % CI 1.22-4.14; p for trend 0.033) (time/day), when comparing the highest category of intake frequency with the lowest, while increasing frequency of fish consumption was associated with a lower risk of PC (OR = 0.93; 95 % CI0.59-1.47; p for trend 0.009). Increasing consumption of barbecuing red meat and deep fried vegetables was associated with 67 % and 70 % increased risk of PC (p-value 0.025 and 0.006, respectively). Our results indicate that increased frequency of intake of bread, rice, and red meat (especially barbecued) and deep fried vegetables can aggregate PC risk, while increased frequency of fish consumption can protect against PC. However, more studies are still needed.

Does Child Temperament Modify the Overweight Risk Associated with Parent Feeding Behaviors and Child Eating Behaviors?: An Exploratory Study

PubMed Central

Tate, Allan D.; Trofholz, Amanda; Rudasill, Kathleen Moritz; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Berge, Jerica M.

2016-01-01

Background Child temperament is a measure of an individual's behavioral tendencies. The primary objective of this study was to examine whether child temperament modified the overweight risk associated with parent feeding behaviors and child eating behaviors. Methods A sample of predominantly African American, Midwest families (N=120) recruited from four metropolitan primary care clinics participated in this cross-sectional, mixed methods study. Parents reported on feeding practices, child eating behaviors, and child temperament. Results Difficult temperament was not statistically related to parent feeding practices or child eating behaviors (p>0.05). Tests of interaction indicated that the risk of child overweight differed by difficult temperament and easy temperament for two child eating behaviors (emotional eating and food fussiness, p<0.05). For example, the effect of food fussiness decreased the risk of overweight for difficult temperament children but increased overweight risk for easy temperament children. Further, the effect of emotional eating increased the risk of overweight for difficult temperament children but decreased overweight risk for easy temperament children. Conclusions Tailoring parent-level interventions to child temperament or promoting environments that trigger less reactive individual responses may be effective in lowering risk of child overweight. PMID:26916725

Isotonic designs for phase I trials in partially ordered groups.

PubMed

Conaway, Mark

2017-10-01

Dose-finding trials can be conducted such that patients are first stratified into multiple risk groups before doses are allocated. The risk groups are often completely ordered in that, for a fixed dose, the probability of toxicity is monotonically increasing across groups. In some trials, the groups are only partially ordered. For example, one of several groups in a trial may be known to have the least risk of toxicity for a given dose, but the ordering of the risk among the remaining groups may not be known. The aim of the article is to introduce a method for designing dose-finding trials of cytotoxic agents in completely or partially ordered groups of patients. This article presents a method for dose-finding that combines previously proposed mathematical models, augmented with results using order restricted inference. The resulting method is computationally convenient and allows for dose-finding in trials with completely or partially ordered groups. Extensive simulations are done to evaluate the performance of the method, using randomly generated dose-toxicity curves where, within each group, the risk of toxicity is an increasing function of dose. Our simulations show that the hybrid method, in which order-restricted estimation is applied to parameters of a parsimonious mathematical model, gives results that are similar to previously proposed methods for completely ordered groups. Our method generalizes to a wide range of partial orders among the groups. The problem of dose-finding in partially ordered groups has not been extensively studied in the statistical literature. The proposed method is computationally feasible, and provides a potential solution to the design of dose-finding studies in completely or partially ordered groups.

Evaluation of Mobile Phone and Cordless Phone Use and Glioma Risk Using the Bradford Hill Viewpoints from 1965 on Association or Causation.

PubMed

Carlberg, Michael; Hardell, Lennart

2017-01-01

Objective. Bradford Hill's viewpoints from 1965 on association or causation were used on glioma risk and use of mobile or cordless phones. Methods. All nine viewpoints were evaluated based on epidemiology and laboratory studies. Results. Strength: meta-analysis of case-control studies gave odds ratio (OR) = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.31-2.76 with highest cumulative exposure. Consistency: the risk increased with latency, meta-analysis gave in the 10+ years' latency group OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.20-2.19. Specificity: increased risk for glioma was in the temporal lobe. Using meningioma cases as comparison group still increased the risk. Temporality: highest risk was in the 20+ years' latency group, OR = 2.01, 95% CI =1.41-2.88, for wireless phones. Biological gradient: cumulative use of wireless phones increased the risk. Plausibility: animal studies showed an increased incidence of glioma and malignant schwannoma in rats exposed to radiofrequency (RF) radiation. There is increased production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) from RF radiation. Coherence: there is a change in the natural history of glioma and increasing incidence. Experiment: antioxidants reduced ROS production from RF radiation. Analogy: there is an increased risk in subjects exposed to extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields. Conclusion. RF radiation should be regarded as a human carcinogen causing glioma.

Evaluation of Mobile Phone and Cordless Phone Use and Glioma Risk Using the Bradford Hill Viewpoints from 1965 on Association or Causation

PubMed Central

Hardell, Lennart

2017-01-01

Objective. Bradford Hill's viewpoints from 1965 on association or causation were used on glioma risk and use of mobile or cordless phones. Methods. All nine viewpoints were evaluated based on epidemiology and laboratory studies. Results. Strength: meta-analysis of case-control studies gave odds ratio (OR) = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.31–2.76 with highest cumulative exposure. Consistency: the risk increased with latency, meta-analysis gave in the 10+ years' latency group OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.20–2.19. Specificity: increased risk for glioma was in the temporal lobe. Using meningioma cases as comparison group still increased the risk. Temporality: highest risk was in the 20+ years' latency group, OR = 2.01, 95% CI =1.41–2.88, for wireless phones. Biological gradient: cumulative use of wireless phones increased the risk. Plausibility: animal studies showed an increased incidence of glioma and malignant schwannoma in rats exposed to radiofrequency (RF) radiation. There is increased production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) from RF radiation. Coherence: there is a change in the natural history of glioma and increasing incidence. Experiment: antioxidants reduced ROS production from RF radiation. Analogy: there is an increased risk in subjects exposed to extremely low-frequency electromagnetic fields. Conclusion. RF radiation should be regarded as a human carcinogen causing glioma. PMID:28401165

MEDICAL EXPENDITURE RISK AND HOUSEHOLD PORTFOLIO CHOICE

PubMed Central

Goldman, Dana

2013-01-01

Medical expenses are an increasingly important contributor to household financial risk. We examine the effect of medical expenditure risk on the willingness of Medicare beneficiaries to hold risky assets. Using a discrete factor maximum likelihood method to address the endogeneity of insurance choices, we find that having a moderately protective Medigap or employer supplemental policy increases risky asset holding by 7.1 percentage points relative to those without supplemental coverage, while participation in a highly protective Medicare HMO increases risky asset holding by 13.0 percentage points. Our results highlight an important link between the availability of health insurance and financial behavior. PMID:23997424

Occupation and thyroid cancer: a population-based case-control study in Connecticut

PubMed Central

Ba, Yue; Huang, Huang; Lerro, Catherine C.; Li, Shuzhen; Zhao, Nan; Li, Anqi; Ma, Shuangge; Udelsman, Robert; Zhang, Yawei

2016-01-01

Objective The study aims to explore the associations between various occupations and thyroid cancer risk. Methods A population-based case-control study involving 462 histologically confirmed incident cases and 498 controls was conducted in Connecticut in 2010–2011. Results A significantly increased risk of thyroid cancer, particularly papillary microcarcinoma, was observed for those working as the healthcare practitioners and technical workers, health diagnosing and treating practitioners and registered nurses. Those working in building and grounds cleaning, maintenance occupations, pest control, retail sales, and customer service also had increased risk for papillary thyroid cancer. Subjects who worked as cooks, janitors, cleaners, and customer service representatives were at an increased risk of papillary thyroid cancer with tumor size >1 cm. Conclusions Certain occupations were associated with an increased risk of thyroid cancer, with some tumor size and subtype specificity. PMID:26949881

Method of self-harm in adolescents and young adults and risk of subsequent suicide.

PubMed

Beckman, Karin; Mittendorfer-Rutz, Ellenor; Waern, Margda; Larsson, Henrik; Runeson, Bo; Dahlin, Marie

2018-03-05

Self-harm is common in youth and an important risk factor for suicide. Certain self-harm methods might indicate a higher risk of suicide. The main aim of this study was to determine whether some methods of self-harm in adolescents (10-17 years) and young adults (18-24 years) are associated with a particularly high risk of suicide. A secondary aim was to ascertain how different self-harm methods might affect the probability of psychiatric follow-up. Five Swedish registers were linked in a national population-based cohort study. All nonfatal self-harm events recorded in specialist health care, excluding psychiatry and primary care services, among 10-24 year olds between 2000 and 2009 were included. Methods were classified as poisoning, cutting/piercing, violent method (gassing, hanging, strangulation/suffocation, drowning, jumping and firearms), other and multiple methods. Hazard Ratios (HR) for suicide were calculated in Cox regression models for each method with poisoning as the reference. Odds Ratios (OR) for psychiatric inpatient care were determined in logistic regression models. Analyses were adjusted for important covariates and stratified by age group and treatment setting (inpatient/outpatient). Among adolescents with initial medical hospitalisation, use of a violent method was associated with a near eightfold increase in HR for suicide compared to self-poisoning in the adjusted analysis [HR 7.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2-19.0]. Among hospitalised young adult women, adjusted HRs were elevated fourfold for both cutting [4.0 (1.9-8.8)] and violent methods [3.9 (1.5-10.6)]. Method of self-harm did not affect suicide risk in young adult men. Adolescents using violent methods had an increased probability of psychiatric inpatient care following initial treatment for self-harm. Violent self-harm requiring medical hospitalisation may signal particularly high risk of future suicide in adolescents (both sexes) and in young adult women. For the latter group this is the case for cutting requiring hospitalisation as well. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Meat, meat cooking methods and preservation, and risk for colorectal adenoma.

PubMed

Sinha, Rashmi; Peters, Ulrike; Cross, Amanda J; Kulldorff, Martin; Weissfeld, Joel L; Pinsky, Paul F; Rothman, Nathaniel; Hayes, Richard B

2005-09-01

Cooking meat at high temperatures produces heterocyclic amines (HCAs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Processed meats contain N-nitroso compounds. Meat intake may increase cancer risk as HCAs, PAHs, and N-nitroso compounds are carcinogenic in animal models. We investigated meat, processed meat, HCAs, and the PAH benzo(a)pyrene and the risk of colorectal adenoma in 3,696 left-sided (descending and sigmoid colon and rectum) adenoma cases and 34,817 endoscopy-negative controls. Dietary intake was assessed using a 137-item food frequency questionnaire, with additional questions on meats and meat cooking practices. The questionnaire was linked to a previously developed database to determine exposure to HCAs and PAHs. Intake of red meat, with known doneness/cooking methods, was associated with an increased risk of adenoma in the descending and sigmoid colon [odds ratio (OR), 1.26; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.05-1.50 comparing extreme quintiles of intake] but not rectal adenoma. Well-done red meat was associated with increased risk of colorectal adenoma (OR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.06-1.37). Increased risks for adenoma of the descending colon and sigmoid colon were observed for the two HCAs: 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo[4,5]quinoxaline and 2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo[4,5]pyridine (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.01-1.38 and OR, 1.17, 95% CI, 1.01-1.35, respectively) as well as benzo(a)pyrene (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.02-1.35). Greater intake of bacon and sausage was associated with increased colorectal adenoma risk (OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.00-1.30); however, total intake of processed meat was not (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.90-1.19). Our study of screening-detected colorectal adenomas shows that red meat and meat cooked at high temperatures are associated with an increased risk of colorectal adenoma.

Bayesian dose-response analysis for epidemiological studies with complex uncertainty in dose estimation.

PubMed

Kwon, Deukwoo; Hoffman, F Owen; Moroz, Brian E; Simon, Steven L

2016-02-10

Most conventional risk analysis methods rely on a single best estimate of exposure per person, which does not allow for adjustment for exposure-related uncertainty. Here, we propose a Bayesian model averaging method to properly quantify the relationship between radiation dose and disease outcomes by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainty in estimated dose. Our Bayesian risk analysis method utilizes multiple realizations of sets (vectors) of doses generated by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation method that properly separates shared and unshared errors in dose estimation. The exposure model used in this work is taken from a study of the risk of thyroid nodules among a cohort of 2376 subjects who were exposed to fallout from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan. We assessed the performance of our method through an extensive series of simulations and comparisons against conventional regression risk analysis methods. When the estimated doses contain relatively small amounts of uncertainty, the Bayesian method using multiple a priori plausible draws of dose vectors gave similar results to the conventional regression-based methods of dose-response analysis. However, when large and complex mixtures of shared and unshared uncertainties are present, the Bayesian method using multiple dose vectors had significantly lower relative bias than conventional regression-based risk analysis methods and better coverage, that is, a markedly increased capability to include the true risk coefficient within the 95% credible interval of the Bayesian-based risk estimate. An evaluation of the dose-response using our method is presented for an epidemiological study of thyroid disease following radiation exposure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Retrospective Occupational Cohort Study of End-Stage Renal Disease in Aircraft Workers Exposed to Trichloroethylene and Other Hydrocarbons

PubMed Central

Radican, Larry; Wartenberg, Daniel; Rhoads, George G.; Schneider, Dona; Wedeen, Richard; Stewart, Patricia; Blair, Aaron

2006-01-01

Objective Case–control studies suggest hydrocarbons increase end-stage renal disease (ESRD) risk. No cohort studies have been conducted. Methods An occupational database was matched to the U.S. Renal Data System, and the outcome of all-cause ESRD was examined using multivariable Cox regression. Sixteen individual hydrocarbons were studied, although exposures were not mutually exclusive. Results For the 1973–2000 period, there was an approximate twofold increased risk of ESRD among workers exposed to trichloroethylene, 1,1,1-trichloroethane, and JP4 gasoline compared with unexposed subjects (all P < 0.05). Relative risk was greater than unity (P > 0.05) for several other hydrocarbons. Associations attenuated (all P > 0.05) when 2001–2002 data were included in the analyses. Conclusions Certain hydrocarbons may increase all-cause ESRD risk. Uncertainty regarding the mechanism for increased risk and the observed attenuation in risk in 2001–2002, as well as the overlap of exposures, complicates interpretation. Additional research is needed. PMID:16404204

Texting to increase physical activity among teenagers (TXT Me!): Rationale, design, and methods proposal

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Physical activity decreases from childhood through adulthood. Among youth, teenagers (teens) achieve the lowest levels of physical activity, and high school age youth are particularly at risk of inactivity. Effective methods are needed to increase youth physical activity in a way that can be maintai...

A case‐control study of airways obstruction among construction workers

PubMed Central

Welch, Laura; Ringen, Knut; Quinn, Patricia; Chen, Anna; Haas, Scott

2015-01-01

Background While smoking is the major cause of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), occupational exposures to vapors, gases, dusts, and fumes (VGDF) increase COPD risk. This case‐control study estimated the risk of COPD attributable to occupational exposures among construction workers. Methods The study population included 834 cases and 1243 controls participating in a national medical screening program for older construction workers between 1997 and 2013. Qualitative exposure indices were developed based on lifetime work and exposure histories. Results Approximately 18% (95%CI = 2–24%) of COPD risk can be attributed to construction‐related exposures, which are additive to the risk contributed by smoking. A measure of all VGDF exposures combined was a strong predictor of COPD risk. Conclusions Construction workers are at increased risk of COPD as a result of broad and complex effects of many exposures acting independently or interactively. Control methods should be implemented to prevent worker exposures, and smoking cessation should be promoted. Am. J. Ind. Med. 58:1083–1097, 2015. © 2015 The Authors. American Journal of Industrial Medicine Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26123003

Identifying multidrug resistant tuberculosis transmission hotspots using routinely collected data12

PubMed Central

Manjourides, Justin; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Shin, Sonya; Jeffery, Caroline; Contreras, Carmen; Cruz, Janeth Santa; Jave, Oswaldo; Yagui, Martin; Asencios, Luis; Pagano, Marcello; Cohen, Ted

2012-01-01

SUMMARY In most countries with large drug resistant tuberculosis epidemics, only those cases that are at highest risk of having MDRTB receive a drug sensitivity test (DST) at the time of diagnosis. Because of this prioritized testing, identification of MDRTB transmission hotspots in communities where TB cases do not receive DST is challenging, as any observed aggregation of MDRTB may reflect systematic differences in how testing is distributed in communities. We introduce a new disease mapping method, which estimates this missing information through probability–weighted locations, to identify geographic areas of increased risk of MDRTB transmission. We apply this method to routinely collected data from two districts in Lima, Peru over three consecutive years. This method identifies an area in the eastern part of Lima where previously untreated cases have increased risk of MDRTB. This may indicate an area of increased transmission of drug resistant disease, a finding that may otherwise have been missed by routine analysis of programmatic data. The risk of MDR among retreatment cases is also highest in these probable transmission hotspots, though a high level of MDR among retreatment cases is present throughout the study area. Identifying potential multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB) transmission hotspots may allow for targeted investigation and deployment of resources. PMID:22401962

A method for examining temporal changes in cyanobacterial ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHAB) are thought to be increasing globally over the past few decades, but relatively little quantitative information is available about the spatial extent of blooms. Satellite remote sensing provides a potential technology for identifying cyanoHABs in multiple water bodies and across geo-political boundaries. An assessment method was developed using MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) imagery to quantify cyanoHAB surface area extent, transferable to different spatial areas, in Florida, Ohio, and California for the test period of 2008 to 2012. Temporal assessment was used to evaluate changes in satellite resolvable inland waterbodies for each state of interest. To further assess cyanoHAB risk within the states, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recreational guidance level thresholds were used to categorize surface area of cyanoHABs into three risk categories: low, moderate, and high-risk bloom area. Results showed that in Florida, the area of cyanoHABs increased largely due to observed increases in high-risk bloom area. California exhibited a slight decrease in cyanoHAB extent, primarily attributed to decreases in Northern California. In Ohio (excluding Lake Erie), little change in cyanoHAB surface area was observed. This study uses satellite remote sensing to quantify changes in inland cyanoHAB surface area across numerous water bodies within an entire state. The temporal assessment method developed here

Mendelian randomization study of height and risk of colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Thrift, Aaron P; Gong, Jian; Peters, Ulrike; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Slattery, Martha L; Chan, Andrew T; Esko, Tonu; Wood, Andrew R; Yang, Jian; Vedantam, Sailaja; Gustafsson, Stefan; Pers, Tune H; Baron, John A; Bezieau, Stéphane; Küry, Sébastien; Ogino, Shuji; Berndt, Sonja I; Casey, Graham; Haile, Robert W; Du, Mengmeng; Harrison, Tabitha A; Thornquist, Mark; Duggan, David J; Le Marchand, Loic; Lemire, Mathieu; Lindor, Noralane M; Seminara, Daniela; Song, Mingyang; Thibodeau, Stephen N; Cotterchio, Michelle; Win, Aung Ko; Jenkins, Mark A; Hopper, John L; Ulrich, Cornelia M; Potter, John D; Newcomb, Polly A; Schoen, Robert E; Hoffmeister, Michael; Brenner, Hermann; White, Emily; Hsu, Li; Campbell, Peter T

2015-01-01

Background: For men and women, taller height is associated with increased risk of all cancers combined. For colorectal cancer (CRC), it is unclear whether the differential association of height by sex is real or is due to confounding or bias inherent in observational studies. We performed a Mendelian randomization study to examine the association between height and CRC risk. Methods: To minimize confounding and bias, we derived a weighted genetic risk score predicting height (using 696 genetic variants associated with height) in 10 226 CRC cases and 10 286 controls. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for associations between height, genetically predicted height and CRC. Results: Using conventional methods, increased height (per 10-cm increment) was associated with increased CRC risk (OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.02–1.15). In sex-specific analyses, height was associated with CRC risk for women (OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.05–1.26), but not men (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.92–1.05). Consistent with these results, carrying greater numbers of (weighted) height-increasing alleles (per 1-unit increase) was associated with higher CRC risk for women and men combined (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01–1.14) and for women (OR = 1.09, 95% CI = 1.01–1.19). There was weaker evidence of an association for men (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.96–1.15). Conclusion: We provide evidence for a causal association between height and CRC for women. The CRC-height association for men remains unclear and warrants further investigation in other large studies. PMID:25997436

The Effect of PNPLA3 on Fibrosis Progression and Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Singal, Amit G.; Manjunath, Hema; Yopp, Adam C.; Beg, Muhammad S.; Marrero, Jorge A.; Gopal, Purva; Waljee, Akbar K.

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES The PNPLA3 rs738409 single-nucleotide polymorphism is known to promote nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), but its association with fibrosis severity and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk is less well-defined. The objectives of this study were to determine the association between PNPLA3 and liver fibrosis severity, HCC risk, and HCC prognosis among patients with liver disease. METHODS We performed a systematic literature review using the Medline, PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases through May 2013 and a manual search of national meeting abstracts from 2010 to 2012. Two investigators independently extracted data on patient populations, study methods, and results using standardized forms. Pooled odds ratios (ORs), according to PNPLA3 genotype, were calculated using the DerSimonian and Laird method for a random effects model. RESULTS Among 24 studies, with 9,915 patients, PNPLA3 was associated with fibrosis severity (OR 1.32, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.20–1.45), with a consistent increased risk across liver disease etiologies. Among nine studies, with 2,937 patients, PNPLA3 was associated with increased risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis (OR 1.40, 95 % CI 1.12–1.75). On subgroup analysis, increased risk of HCC was demonstrated in patients with NASH or alcohol-related cirrhosis (OR 1.67, 95 % CI 1.27–2.21) but not in those with other etiologies of cirrhosis (OR 1.33, 95 % CI 0.96–1.82). Three studies, with 463 patients, do not support an association between PNPLA3 and HCC prognosis but are limited by heterogeneous outcome measures. For all outcomes, most studies were conducted in homogenous Caucasian populations, and studies among racially diverse cohorts are needed. CONCLUSIONS PNPLA3 is associated with an increased risk of advanced fibrosis among patients with a variety of liver diseases and is an independent risk factor for HCC among patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis or alcohol-related cirrhosis. PMID:24445574

Factors influencing contraceptive use and non-use among women of advanced reproductive age in Nigeria.

PubMed

Solanke, Bola Lukman

2017-01-07

Factors influencing contraceptive use and non-use among women of advanced reproductive age have been insufficiently researched in Nigeria. This study examines factors influencing contraceptive use and non-use among women of advanced reproductive age in Nigeria. Secondary data were pooled and extracted from 2008 and 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS). The weighted sample size was 14,450 women of advanced reproductive age. The dependent variable was current contraceptive use. The explanatory variables were selected socio-demographic characteristics and three control variables. Analyses were performed using Stata version 12. Multinomial logistic regression was applied in four models. Majority of the respondents are not using any method of contraceptive; the expected risk of using modern contraceptive relative to traditional method reduces by a factor of 0.676 for multiparous women (rrr = 0.676; CI: 0.464-0.985); the expected risk of using modern contraceptive relative to traditional method reduces by a factor of 0.611 for women who want more children (rrr = 0.611; CI: 0.493-0.757); the relative risk for using modern contraceptive relative to traditional method increases by a factor of 1.637 as maternal education reaches secondary education (rrr = 1.637; CI: 1.173-2.285); the relative risk for using modern contraceptive relative to traditional method increases by a factor of 1.726 for women in richest households (rrr = 1.726; CI: 1.038-2.871); and the expected risk of using modern contraceptive relative to traditional method increases by a factor of 1.250 for southern women (rrr = 1.250; CI: 1.200-1.818). Socio-demographic characteristics exert more influence on non-use than modern contraceptive use. The scope, content and coverage of existing BCC messages should be extended to cover the contraceptive needs and challenges of women of advanced reproductive age in the country.

Understanding the impact of supervision on reducing medication risks: an interview study in long-term elderly care.

PubMed

Vermeulen, J A; Kleefstra, S M; Zijp, E M; Kool, R B

2017-07-06

In 2009, the Dutch Health Care Inspectorate (IGZ) observed several serious risks to safety involving medication within elderly care facilities. However, by 2011, high risks had been reduced in almost all the organisations we visited. And yet the IGZ analysed too the alarming increase in the number of incidents arising in the self-reported national indicator of medication safety between 2009 and 2010. The aim of this study was to understand the factors that can explain this contradiction between the increase in self-reported medication incidents and the observation of the IGZ in reducing the risks to medication safety through supervision. We interviewed health care professionals of ten care facilities, visited by the IGZ, who were involved in, or responsible for, the improvement of medication safety in their institutions. As outcome measures we used the rate of medication safety risk per facility; the perceptions of the participant with regard to the reports of medication incidents; the level of medication safety of the facility; the measures used to improve medication safety; and the supervision of medication safety. This was a mixed methods study, qualitative in that we used semi-structured interviews, and quantitative, by calculating risks for the different organisations we visited. The findings from both study methods resulted in a comprehensive view and an in-depth understanding of this contradiction. The contradiction between the increase in self-reported medication incidents and the observation of reduced risks was explained by three themes: activities designed to improve medication safety, the reporting of medication incidents, and, lastly, the impact of supervision. The focus of the IGZ on issues of medication safety stimulated most elderly care facilities to reduce medication risks. Also, a change in the culture of reporting incidents caused an increase in the number of reported incidents. Supervision contributed to an improvement in actions geared towards reducing the risks associated with the safety of medication. It also increased a willingness to report such incidents. The more incidents reported are therefore not necessarily a sign of an increase in the risks, but can also be considered as a sign of a safer culture.

Relative Risks of Contributing Factors to Morbidity and Mortality in Adults With Craniopharyngioma on Growth Hormone Replacement.

PubMed

Yuen, Kevin C J; Mattsson, Anders F; Burman, Pia; Erfurth, Eva-Marie; Camacho-Hubner, Cecilia; Fox, Janet L; Verhelst, Johan; Geffner, Mitchell E; Abs, Roger

2018-02-01

In adults, craniopharyngioma (CP) of either childhood-onset (CO-CP) or adult-onset (AO-CP) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but data on the relative risks (RRs) of contributing factors are lacking. To assess the RRs of factors contributing to morbidity and mortality in adults with CO-CP and AO-CP. Data on 1669 patients with CP from KIMS (Pfizer International Metabolic Database) were analyzed using univariate and multiple Poisson and Cox regression methods. When CO-CP and AO-CP groups were combined, history of stroke and hyperlipidemia increased cardiovascular risk, higher body mass index (BMI) and radiotherapy increased cerebrovascular risk, and increased waist circumference increased the risk of developing diabetes mellitus (DM). Compared with patients with CO-CP, patients with AO-CP had a threefold higher risk of tumor recurrence, whereas being female and previous radiotherapy exposure conferred lower risks. Radiotherapy and older age with every 10 years from disease onset conferred a 2.3- to 3.5-fold risk for developing new intracranial tumors, whereas older age, greater and/or increasing BMI, history of stroke, and lower insulinlike growth factor I (IGF-I) standard deviation score measured at last sampling before death were related to increased all-cause mortality. Compared with the general population, adults with CP had 9.3-, 8.1-, and 2.2-fold risks of developing DM, new intracranial tumors, and early death, respectively. Conventional factors that increase the risks of cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases and DM and risks for developing new intracranial tumors contributed to excess morbidity and mortality. In addition, lower serum IGF-I level measured from the last sample before death was inversely associated with mortality risk in patients with CP. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society

Smoking and increased Alzheimer’s disease risk: A review of potential mechanisms

PubMed Central

Durazzo, Timothy C.; Mattsson, Niklas; Weiner, Michael W.

2014-01-01

Background Cigarette smoking has been linked with both increased and decreased risk for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). This is relevant for the US military because the prevalence of smoking in the military is approximately 11% higher than in civilians. Methods Systematic review of published studies on the association between smoking and increased risk for AD, and preclinical and human literature on the relationships between smoking, nicotine exposure and AD-related neuropathology. Original data from comparisons of smoking and never-smoking cognitively normal elders on in vivo amyloid imaging are also presented. Results Overall, the literature indicates that former/active smoking is related to a significantly increased risk for AD. Cigarette smoke/smoking is associated with AD neuropathology in preclinical models and humans. Smoking-related cerebral oxidative stress is a potential mechanism promoting AD pathophysiology and increased risk for AD. Conclusions A reduction in the incidence of smoking will likely reduce the future prevalence of AD. PMID:24924665

Risk Selection into Consumer-Directed Health Plans: An Analysis of Family Choices within Large Employers

PubMed Central

McDevitt, Roland D; Haviland, Amelia M; Lore, Ryan; Laudenberger, Laura; Eisenberg, Matthew; Sood, Neeraj

2014-01-01

Objective To identify the degree of selection into consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) versus traditional plans over time, and factors that influence choice and temper risk selection. Data Sources/Study Setting Sixteen large employers offering both CDHP and traditional plans during the 2004–2007 period, more than 200,000 families. Study Design We model CDHP choice with logistic regression; predictors include risk scores, in addition to family, choice setting, and plan characteristics. Additional models stratify by account type or single enrollee versus family. Data Collection/Extraction Methods Risk scores, family characteristics, and enrollment decisions are derived from medical claims and enrollment files. Interviews with human resources executives provide additional data. Principal Findings CDHP risk scores were 74 percent of traditional plan scores in the first year, and this difference declined over time. Employer contributions to accounts and employee premium savings fostered CDHP enrollment and reduced risk selection. Having to make an active choice of plan increased CDHP enrollment but also increased risk selection. Risk selection was greater for singles than families and did not differ between HRA and HSA-based CDHPs. Conclusions Risk selection was not severe and it was well managed. Employers have effective methods to encourage CDHP enrollment and temper selection against traditional plans. PMID:24800305

Cooking Methods for Red Meats and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Study of U.S. Women.

PubMed

Liu, Gang; Zong, Geng; Hu, Frank B; Willett, Walter C; Eisenberg, David M; Sun, Qi

2017-08-01

This study examined different cooking methods for red meats in relation to type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk among U.S. women who consumed red meats regularly (≥2 servings/week). We monitored 59,033 women (1986-2012) aged 30-55 years and free of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer at baseline when information on frequency of different cooking methods for red meats, including broiling, barbequing, roasting, pan-frying, and stewing/boiling, was collected. During 1.24 million person-years of follow-up, we documented 6,206 incident cases of T2D. After multivariate adjustment including red meat cooking methods, total red meat and processed red meat intake were both associated with a monotonically increased T2D risk (both P trend <0.05). After multivariate adjustment including total red meat intake, a higher frequency of broiling, barbequing, and roasting red meats was each independently associated with a higher T2D risk. When comparing ≥2 times/week with <1 time/month, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI of T2D were 1.29 (1.19, 1.40; P trend <0.001) for broiling, 1.23 (1.11, 1.38; P trend <0.001) for barbequing, and 1.11 (1.01, 1.23; P trend = 0.14) for roasting. In contrast, the frequency of stewing/boiling red meats was not associated with T2D risk, and an inverse association was observed for pan-frying frequency and T2D risk. The results remained similar after cooking methods were further mutually adjusted. Independent of total red meat consumption, high-temperature and/or open-flame cooking methods for red meats, especially broiling and barbequing, may further increase diabetes risk among regular meat eaters. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

Industry Related Financial Incentives.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-09-29

undertaking uses these methods and is designed to examine the risk exposure for the different parts of their company. The results of VP’s analyses...the financial incentives differently however, four of the six firms chose production interruption as their primary financial incentive for...industries were useful, they did not recommend increased Government regulation. ES-2 All the insurers used formal methods of assessing their clients risk

Copycat effects after media reports on suicide: a population-based ecologic study.

PubMed

Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Till, Benedikt; Kapusta, Nestor D; Voracek, Martin; Dervic, Kanita; Sonneck, Gernot

2009-10-01

This study aimed to investigate whether the risk of increased suicide occurrence after reports on suicide is associated with the social characteristics of the reported suicides and whether this varies with similarity between the reported suicides and suicides in the population. We collected reports on all 179 individual suicides named in the 13 largest Austrian nationwide newspapers from 1996 to 2006. Information on social status and sociodemographic characteristics of the reported suicides, on certainty of labelling the death as a suicide, and on the suicide methods applied were extracted from the articles. We conducted logistic regression analyses, with the increase of post-report suicides within 28 days after the reports as dependent variable. In model 1, the increase of suicides that matched the reported individual suicide with regard to age group, sex and suicide method was used as outcome variable. In model 2, the increase of suicides that were different from the reported suicide with regard to these characteristics was the outcome. In model 3, the post-report increase of total suicides was the dependent variable. Celebrity status of the reported suicide, age of the reported suicide between 30 and 64 years, and definitive labelling as a suicide were associated with an increased risk of a post-report increase of similar suicides; criminality (i.e. the individual was reported as suspected or convicted of crime) of the reported suicide was associated with a lower risk of a post-report increase. In dissimilar suicides, none of the variables was associated with a post-report increase of suicides. Celebrity status of the reported suicide was the only predictor of a post-report increase of total suicides. The findings support the hypothesis that social variables of reported suicides impact the risk of post-report copycat behaviour. Evidence of copycat effects seemed to be strongest in suicides that were similar to the respective model with regard to age group, sex, and suicide method.

Poultry and Livestock Exposure and Cancer Risk among Farmers in the Agricultural Health Study

PubMed Central

Beane Freeman, Laura E.; DeRoos, Anneclaire J.; Koutros, Stella; Blair, Aaron; Ward, Mary H.; Alavanja, Michael; Hoppin, Jane A.

2012-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this study is to evaluate cancer risk associated with raising animals as commodities, which is associated with a variety of exposures, such as infectious agents and endotoxins. Methods Information was available for 49,884 male farmers in the Agricultural Health Study, who reported livestock and poultry production at enrollment (1993–1997). Cancer incidence data were obtained through annual linkage to state registries. Using Poisson regression analyses, we evaluated whether the number and type of animals raised on the farm impacted cancer risk. Results Overall, 31,848 (63.8%) male farmers reported raising any animals. Lung cancer risk decreased with increasing number of livestock on the farm (p-trend=0.04) and with raising poultry (Relative Risk (RR)= 0.6; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.4–0.97). Raising poultry was associated with an increased risk of colon cancer (RR=1.4; 95% CI: 0.99–2.0) with further increased with larger flocks (p-trend=0.02). Risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma was also elevated in those who raised poultry (RR=1.6; 95% CI: 1.0–2.4), but there was no evidence of increased risk with larger flocks (p-trend=0.5). Raising sheep was associated with a significantly increased risk of multiple myeloma (RR=4.9; 95% CI: 2.4–12.0). Performing veterinary services increased the risk of Hodgkin lymphoma (RR=12.2; 95% CI: 1.6–96.3). Conclusions We observed an inverse association between raising poultry and livestock and lung cancer risk and some evidence of increased risk of specific lymphohematopoietic malignancies with specific types of animals and performing veterinary services. Further research into associations between raising animals and cancer risk should focus on identification of etiologic agents. PMID:22407136

Assessing the validity of prospective hazard analysis methods: a comparison of two techniques

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Prospective Hazard Analysis techniques such as Healthcare Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (HFMEA) and Structured What If Technique (SWIFT) have the potential to increase safety by identifying risks before an adverse event occurs. Published accounts of their application in healthcare have identified benefits, but the reliability of some methods has been found to be low. The aim of this study was to examine the validity of SWIFT and HFMEA by comparing their outputs in the process of risk assessment, and comparing the results with risks identified by retrospective methods. Methods The setting was a community-based anticoagulation clinic, in which risk assessment activities had been previously performed and were available. A SWIFT and an HFMEA workshop were conducted consecutively on the same day by experienced experts. Participants were a mixture of pharmacists, administrative staff and software developers. Both methods produced lists of risks scored according to the method’s procedure. Participants’ views about the value of the workshops were elicited with a questionnaire. Results SWIFT identified 61 risks and HFMEA identified 72 risks. For both methods less than half the hazards were identified by the other method. There was also little overlap between the results of the workshops and risks identified by prior root cause analysis, staff interviews or clinical governance board discussions. Participants’ feedback indicated that the workshops were viewed as useful. Conclusions Although there was limited overlap, both methods raised important hazards. Scoping the problem area had a considerable influence on the outputs. The opportunity for teams to discuss their work from a risk perspective is valuable, but these methods cannot be relied upon in isolation to provide a comprehensive description. Multiple methods for identifying hazards should be used and data from different sources should be integrated to give a comprehensive view of risk in a system. PMID:24467813

Antithyroid drug-related hepatotoxicity in hyperthyroidism patients: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Wang, Meng-Ting; Lee, Wan-Ju; Huang, Tien-Yu; Chu, Che-Li; Hsieh, Chang-Hsun

2014-01-01

Aims The evidence of hepatotoxicity of antithyroid drugs (ATDs) is limited to case reports or spontaneous reporting. This study aimed to quantify the incidence and comparative risks of hepatotoxicity for methimazole (MMI)/carbimazole (CBM) vs. propylthiouracil (PTU) in a population-based manner. Methods We conducted a cohort study of hyperthyroidism patients initially receiving MMI/CBM or PTU between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2008 using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The examined hepatotoxicity consisted of cholestasis, non-infectious hepatitis, acute liver failure and liver transplant, with the incidences and relative risks being quantified by Poisson exact methods and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively. Results The study cohort comprised 71 379 ATD initiators, with a median follow-up of 196 days. MMI/CBM vs. PTU users had a higher hepatitis incidence rate (3.17/1000 vs. 1.19/1000 person-years) but a lower incidence of acute liver failure (0.32/1000 vs. 0.68/1000 person-years). The relative risk analysis indicated that any use of MMI/CBM was associated with a 2.89-fold (95% CI 1.81, 4.60) increased hepatitis risk compared with PTU, with the risk increasing to 5.08-fold for high dose MMI/CBM (95% CI 3.15, 8.18). However, any MMI/CBM use vs. PTU was not related to an increased risk of cholestasis (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% CI 0.40, 3.72) or acute liver failure (adjusted HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.24, 1.22). Conclusions MMI/CBM and PTU exert dissimilar incidence rates of hepatotoxicity. Compared to PTU, MMI/CBM are associated in a dose-dependent manner with an increased risk for hepatitis while the risks are similar for acute liver failure and cholestasis. PMID:25279406

Risk factors for perioperative hyperglycemia in primary hip and knee replacements

PubMed Central

Jämsen, Esa; Nevalainen, Pasi I; Eskelinen, Antti; Kalliovalkama, Jarkko; Moilanen, Teemu

2015-01-01

Background and purpose Background and purpose — Perioperative hyperglycemia has been associated with adverse outcomes in several fields of surgery. In this observational study, we identified factors associated with an increased risk of hyperglycemia following hip and knee replacement. Patients and methods Patients and methods — We prospectively monitored changes in glucose following primary hip and knee replacements in 191 patients with osteoarthritis. Possible associations of patient characteristics and operation-related factors with hyperglycemia (defined as glucose > 7.8 mmol/L in 2 consecutive measurements) and severe hyperglycemia (glucose > 10 mmol/L) were analyzed using binary logistic regression with adjustment for age, sex, operated joint, and anesthesiological risk score. Results Results — 76 patients (40%) developed hyperglycemia, and 48 of them (25% of the whole cohort) had severe hyperglycemia. Glycemic responses were similar following hip replacement and knee replacement. Previously diagnosed diabetes was associated with an increased risk of hyperglycemia and severe hyperglycemia, compared to patients with normal glucose metabolism, whereas newly diagnosed diabetes and milder glucose metabolism disorders had no effect. In patients without previously diagnosed diabetes, increased values of preoperative glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and fasting glucose on the day of operation were associated with hyperglycemia. Higher anesthesiological risk score—but none of the operation-related factors analyzed—was associated with an increased risk of hyperglycemia. Interpretation Interpretation — Perioperative hyperglycemia is common in primary hip and knee replacements. Previously diagnosed diabetes is the strongest risk factor for hyperglycemia. In patients with no history of diabetes, preoperative HbA1c and fasting glucose on the day of operation can be used to stratify the risk of hyperglycemia. PMID:25409255

Higher risk of venous thrombosis associated with drospirenone-containing oral contraceptives: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Gronich, Naomi; Lavi, Idit; Rennert, Gad

2011-01-01

Background: Combined oral contraceptives are a common method of contraception, but they carry a risk of venous and arterial thrombosis. We assessed whether use of drospirenone was associated with an increase in thrombotic risk relative to third-generation combined oral contraceptives. Methods: Using computerized records of the largest health care provider in Israel, we identified all women aged 12 to 50 years for whom combined oral contraceptives had been dispensed between Jan. 1, 2002, and Dec. 31, 2008. We followed the cohort until 2009. We used Poisson regression models to estimate the crude and adjusted rate ratios for risk factors for venous thrombotic events (specifically deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism) and arterial thromboic events (specifically transient ischemic attack and cerebrovascular accident). We performed multivariable analyses to compare types of contraceptives, with adjustment for the various risk factors. Results: We identified a total of 1017 (0.24%) venous and arterial thrombotic events among 431 223 use episodes during 819 749 woman-years of follow-up (6.33 venous events and 6.10 arterial events per 10 000 woman-years). In a multivariable model, use of drospirenone carried an increased risk of venous thrombotic events, relative to both third-generation combined oral contraceptives (rate ratio [RR] 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15–1.78) and second-generation combined oral contraceptives (RR 1.65, 95% CI 1.02–2.65). There was no increase in the risk of arterial thrombosis with drospirenone. Interpretation: Use of drospirenone-containing oral contraceptives was associated with an increased risk of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, but not transient ischemic attack or cerebrovascular attack, relative to second- and third-generation combined oral contraceptives. PMID:22065352

Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method.

PubMed

Deng, Xinyang; Jiang, Wen

2017-09-12

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Fuzzy Risk Evaluation in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Using a D Numbers Based Multi-Sensor Information Fusion Method

PubMed Central

Deng, Xinyang

2017-01-01

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to define, identify, and eliminate potential failures or errors so as to improve the reliability of systems, designs, and products. Risk evaluation is an important issue in FMEA to determine the risk priorities of failure modes. There are some shortcomings in the traditional risk priority number (RPN) approach for risk evaluation in FMEA, and fuzzy risk evaluation has become an important research direction that attracts increasing attention. In this paper, the fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA is studied from a perspective of multi-sensor information fusion. By considering the non-exclusiveness between the evaluations of fuzzy linguistic variables to failure modes, a novel model called D numbers is used to model the non-exclusive fuzzy evaluations. A D numbers based multi-sensor information fusion method is proposed to establish a new model for fuzzy risk evaluation in FMEA. An illustrative example is provided and examined using the proposed model and other existing method to show the effectiveness of the proposed model. PMID:28895905

Sexual Pleasure and Sexual Risk among Women who Use Methamphetamine: A Mixed Methods Study

PubMed Central

Lorvick, Jennifer; Bourgois, Philippe; Wenger, Lynn D.; Arreola, Sonya G.; Lutnick, Alexandra; Wechsberg, Wendee M.; Kral, Alex H.

2012-01-01

Background The intersection of drug use, sexual pleasure and sexual risk behavior is rarely explored when it comes to poor women who use drugs. This paper explores the relationship between sexual behavior and methamphetamine use in a community-based sample of women, exploring not only risk, but also desire, pleasure and the challenges of overcoming trauma. Methods Quantitative data were collected using standard epidemiological methods (N=322) for community-based studies. In addition, using purposive sampling, qualitative data were collected among a subset of participants (n=34). Data were integrated for mixed methods analysis. Results While many participants reported sexual risk behavior (unprotected vaginal or anal intercourse) in the quantitative survey, sexual risk was not the central narrative pertaining to sexual behavior and methamphetamine use in qualitative findings. Rather, desire, pleasure and disinhibition arose as central themes. Women described feelings of power and agency related to sexual behavior while high on methamphetamine. Findings were mixed on whether methamphetamine use increased sexual risk behavior. Conclusion The use of mixed methods afforded important insights into the sexual behavior and priorities of methamphetamine-using women. Efforts to reduce sexual risk should recognize and valorize the positive aspects of methamphetamine use for some women, building on positive feelings of power and agency as an approach to harm minimization. PMID:22954501

[Impact of water pollution risk in water transfer project based on fault tree analysis].

PubMed

Liu, Jian-Chang; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Li-Min; Li, Dai-Qing; Fan, Xiu-Ying; Deng, Hong-Bing

2009-09-15

The methods to assess water pollution risk for medium water transfer are gradually being explored. The event-nature-proportion method was developed to evaluate the probability of the single event. Fault tree analysis on the basis of calculation on single event was employed to evaluate the extent of whole water pollution risk for the channel water body. The result indicates, that the risk of pollutants from towns and villages along the line of water transfer project to the channel water body is at high level with the probability of 0.373, which will increase pollution to the channel water body at the rate of 64.53 mg/L COD, 4.57 mg/L NH4(+) -N and 0.066 mg/L volatilization hydroxybenzene, respectively. The measurement of fault probability on the basis of proportion method is proved to be useful in assessing water pollution risk under much uncertainty.

Increased pulmonary alveolar-capillary permeability in patients at risk for adult respiratory distress syndrome

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tennenberg, S.D.; Jacobs, M.P.; Solomkin, J.S.

1987-04-01

Two methods for predicting adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were evaluated prospectively in a group of 81 multitrauma and sepsis patients considered at clinical high risk. A popular ARDS risk-scoring method, employing discriminant analysis equations (weighted risk criteria and oxygenation characteristics), yielded a predictive accuracy of 59% and a false-negative rate of 22%. Pulmonary alveolar-capillary permeability (PACP) was determined with a radioaerosol lung-scan technique in 23 of these 81 patients, representing a statistically similar subgroup. Lung scanning achieved a predictive accuracy of 71% (after excluding patients with unilateral pulmonary contusion) and gave no false-negatives. We propose a combination of clinicalmore » risk identification and functional determination of PACP to assess a patient's risk of developing ARDS.« less

Fall Risk Assessment Through Automatic Combination of Clinical Fall Risk Factors and Body-Worn Sensor Data.

PubMed

Greene, Barry R; Redmond, Stephen J; Caulfield, Brian

2017-05-01

Falls are the leading global cause of accidental death and disability in older adults and are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization. Accurate, early identification of patients at risk of falling, could lead to timely intervention and a reduction in the incidence of fall-related injury and associated costs. We report a statistical method for fall risk assessment using standard clinical fall risk factors (N = 748). We also report a means of improving this method by automatically combining it, with a fall risk assessment algorithm based on inertial sensor data and the timed-up-and-go test. Furthermore, we provide validation data on the sensor-based fall risk assessment method using a statistically independent dataset. Results obtained using cross-validation on a sample of 292 community dwelling older adults suggest that a combined clinical and sensor-based approach yields a classification accuracy of 76.0%, compared to either 73.6% for sensor-based assessment alone, or 68.8% for clinical risk factors alone. Increasing the cohort size by adding an additional 130 subjects from a separate recruitment wave (N = 422), and applying the same model building and validation method, resulted in a decrease in classification performance (68.5% for combined classifier, 66.8% for sensor data alone, and 58.5% for clinical data alone). This suggests that heterogeneity between cohorts may be a major challenge when attempting to develop fall risk assessment algorithms which generalize well. Independent validation of the sensor-based fall risk assessment algorithm on an independent cohort of 22 community dwelling older adults yielded a classification accuracy of 72.7%. Results suggest that the present method compares well to previously reported sensor-based fall risk assessment methods in assessing falls risk. Implementation of objective fall risk assessment methods on a large scale has the potential to improve quality of care and lead to a reduction in associated hospital costs, due to fewer admissions and reduced injuries due to falling.

Assessment of Heart Transplant Waitlist Time and Pre- and Post-transplant Failure: A Mixed Methods Approach.

PubMed

Goldstein, Benjamin A; Thomas, Laine; Zaroff, Jonathan G; Nguyen, John; Menza, Rebecca; Khush, Kiran K

2016-07-01

Over the past two decades, there have been increasingly long waiting times for heart transplantation. We studied the relationship between heart transplant waiting time and transplant failure (removal from the waitlist, pretransplant death, or death or graft failure within 1 year) to determine the risk that conservative donor heart acceptance practices confer in terms of increasing the risk of failure among patients awaiting transplantation. We studied a cohort of 28,283 adults registered on the United Network for Organ Sharing heart transplant waiting list between 2000 and 2010. We used Kaplan-Meier methods with inverse probability censoring weights to examine the risk of transplant failure accumulated over time spent on the waiting list (pretransplant). In addition, we used transplant candidate blood type as an instrumental variable to assess the risk of transplant failure associated with increased wait time. Our results show that those who wait longer for a transplant have greater odds of transplant failure. While on the waitlist, the greatest risk of failure is during the first 60 days. Doubling the amount of time on the waiting list was associated with a 10% (1.01, 1.20) increase in the odds of failure within 1 year after transplantation. Our findings suggest a relationship between time spent on the waiting list and transplant failure, thereby supporting research aimed at defining adequate donor heart quality and acceptance standards for heart transplantation.

High-Risk Health and Credit Behavior among 18- to 25-Year-Old College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Troy; Moore, Monique

2007-01-01

The number of students accumulating credit card debt--and the amount of debt itself--on college campuses is increasing. If high-risk credit and health behavior are associated, health behavior interventions might apply to high-risk credit behavior. Objective: The authors' purpose was to examine these possible associations. Participants and Methods:…

Risk terminology primer: Basic principles and a glossary for the wildland fire management community

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Tom Zimmerman; Dan Mindar; Mary Taber

2016-01-01

Risk management is being increasingly promoted as an appropriate method for addressing wildland fire management challenges. However, a lack of a common understanding of risk concepts and terminology is hindering effective application. In response, this General Technical Report provides a set of clear, consistent, understandable, and usable definitions for terms...

Risk assessment for sustainable food security in China according to integrated food security--taking Dongting Lake area for example.

PubMed

Qi, Xiaoxing; Liu, Liming; Liu, Yabin; Yao, Lan

2013-06-01

Integrated food security covers three aspects: food quantity security, food quality security, and sustainable food security. Because sustainable food security requires that food security must be compatible with sustainable development, the risk assessment of sustainable food security is becoming one of the most important issues. This paper mainly focuses on the characteristics of sustainable food security problems in the major grain-producing areas in China. We establish an index system based on land resources and eco-environmental conditions and apply a dynamic assessment method based on status assessments and trend analysis models to overcome the shortcomings of the static evaluation method. Using fuzzy mathematics, the risks are categorized into four grades: negligible risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk. A case study was conducted in one of China's major grain-producing areas: Dongting Lake area. The results predict that the status of the sustainable food security in the Dongting Lake area is unsatisfactory for the foreseeable future. The number of districts at the medium-risk range will increase from six to ten by 2015 due to increasing population pressure, a decrease in the cultivated area, and a decrease in the effective irrigation area. Therefore, appropriate policies and measures should be put forward to improve it. The results could also provide direct support for an early warning system-which could be used to monitor food security trends or nutritional status so to inform policy makers of impending food shortages-to prevent sustainable food security risk based on some classical systematic methods. This is the first research of sustainable food security in terms of risk assessment, from the perspective of resources and the environment, at the regional scale.

Animal food intake and cooking methods in relation to endometrial cancer risk in Shanghai

PubMed Central

Xu, W-H; Dai, Q; Xiang, Y-B; Zhao, G-M; Zheng, W; Gao, Y-T; Ruan, Z-X; Cheng, J-R; Shu, X-O

2006-01-01

We evaluated animal food intake and cooking methods in relation to endometrial cancer risk in a population-based case–control study in Shanghai, China. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to collect the usual dietary habits of 1204 cases and 1212 controls aged 30–69 years between 1997 and 2003. Statistical analyses were based on an unconditional logistic regression model adjusting for potential confounders. High intake of meat and fish was associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer, with adjusted odds ratios for the highest vs the lowest quartile groups being 1.7 (95% confidence interval: 1.3–2.2) and 2.4 (1.8–3.1), respectively. The elevated risk was observed for all types of meat and fish intake. Intake of eggs and milk was not related to risk. Cooking methods and doneness levels for meat and fish were not associated with risk, nor did they modify the association with meat and fish consumption. Our study suggests that animal food consumption may play an important role in the aetiology of endometrial cancer, but cooking methods have minimal influence on risk among Chinese women. PMID:17060930

Development and Validation of a Video Measure for Assessing Women’s Risk Perception for Alcohol-Related Sexual Assault

PubMed Central

Parks, Kathleen A.; Levonyan-Radloff, Kristine; Dearing, Ronda L.; Hequembourg, Amy; Testa, Maria

2016-01-01

Objective Using an iterative process, a series of three video scenarios were developed for use as a standardized measure for assessing women’s perception of risks for alcohol-related sexual assault (SA). The videos included ambiguous and clear behavioral and environmental risk cues. Method Focus group discussions with young, female heavy drinkers (N = 42) were used to develop three videos at different risk levels (low, moderate, and high) in Study 1. Realism, reliability, and validity of the videos were assessed using multiple methods in Studies 2 and 3. One hundred-four women were used to compare differences in risk perception across the video risk level in Study 2. In Study 3 (N = 60), we assessed women’s perceptions of the low and high risk videos under conditions of no alcohol and alcohol. Results The realism and reliability of the videos were good. Women who viewed the low risk video compared to women who viewed the moderate and high risk videos perceived less risk for SA. We found an interaction between alcohol and risk perception such that, women in the alcohol condition were less likely to perceive risk when watching the high risk video. Conclusions As the video risk level increased, women’s perception of risk increased. These findings provide convergent evidence for the validity of the video measure. Given the limited number of standardized scenarios for assessing risk perception for sexual assault, our findings suggest that these videos may provide a needed standardized measure. PMID:27747131

Evaluation of paediatric cardiosurgical model in Croatia by using the Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment for congenital cardiac surgery-1 method.

PubMed

Dilber, Daniel; Malcic, Ivan

2010-08-01

The Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method were developed and used to compare outcomes of congenital cardiac surgery. Both methods were used to compare results of procedures performed on our patients in Croatian cardiosurgical centres and results of procedures were taken abroad. The study population consisted of all patients with congenital cardiac disease born to Croatian residents between 1 October, 2002 and 1 October, 2007 undergoing a cardiovascular operation during this period. Of the 556 operations, the Aristotle basic complexity score could be assigned to 553 operations and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method to 536 operations. Procedures were performed in two institutions in Croatia and seven institutions abroad. The average complexity for cardiac procedures performed in Croatia was significantly lower. With both systems, along with the increase in complexity, there is also an increase in mortality before discharge and postoperative length of stay. Only after the adjustment for complexity there are marked differences in mortality and occurrence of postoperative complications. Both, the Aristotle basic complexity score and the risk adjustment in congenital cardiac surgery-1 method were predictive of in-hospital mortality as well as prolonged postoperative length to stay, and can be used as a tool in our country to evaluate a cardiosurgical model and recognise potential problems.

'I should have taken that further' - missed opportunities during cardiovascular risk assessment in patients with psoriasis in UK primary care settings: a mixed-methods study.

PubMed

Nelson, Pauline A; Kane, Karen; Chisholm, Anna; Pearce, Christina J; Keyworth, Christopher; Rutter, Martin K; Chew-Graham, Carolyn A; Griffiths, Christopher E M; Cordingley, Lis

2016-10-01

Unhealthy lifestyle is common in psoriasis, contributing to worsening disease and increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. CVD risk communication should improve patients' understanding of risk and risk-reducing behaviours; however, the effectiveness of risk screening is debated and evaluation currently limited. To examine the process of assessing for and communicating about CVD risk in the context of psoriasis. Mixed-methods study in English general practices to (i) determine proportions of CVD risk factors among patients with psoriasis at risk assessment and (ii) examine patient and practitioner experiences of risk communication to identify salient 'process' issues. Audio recordings of consultations informed in-depth interviews with patients and practitioners using tape-assisted recall, analysed with framework analysis. Patients with psoriasis (n = 287) undergoing CVD risk assessment; 29 patients and 12 practitioners interviewed. A high proportion of patients had risk factor levels apparent at risk assessment above NICE recommendations: very high waist circumference (52%), obesity (35%), raised blood pressure (29%), smoking (18%) and excess alcohol consumption (18%). There was little evidence of personalized discussion about CVD risk and behaviour change support in consultations. Professionals reported a lack of training in behaviour change, while patients wanted to discuss CVD risk/risk reduction and believed practitioners to be influential in supporting lifestyle management. Despite high levels of risk factors identified, opportunities may be missed in consultations to support patients with psoriasis to understand CVD risk/risk reduction. Practitioners need training in behaviour change techniques to capitalize on 'teachable moments' and increase the effectiveness of risk screening. © 2015 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Werther Effect of Two Celebrity Suicides: an Entertainer and a Politician

PubMed Central

Kim, Jae-Hyun; Park, Eun-Cheol; Nam, Jung-Mo; Park, SoHee; Cho, Jaelim; Kim, Sun-Jung; Choi, Jae-Woo; Cho, Eun

2013-01-01

Purpose Suicide is a major health problem in Korea. Extensive media exposure of celebrity suicide may induce imitative suicide, a phenomenon called the Werther effect. We examined the increased suicide risk following the suicides of an entertainer and a politician, and identified the relative suicide risks. Methods News articles about the celebrity suicides were obtained from three major newspapers and analysed for quantitative and qualitative features. Imitative suicide risk was investigated by applying a Poisson time series autoregression model with suicide mortality data from the National Statistics Office for 1.5 years before and 1.5 years after each celebrity’s suicide. The period with a significantly increased number of suicides immediately after the celebrity’s suicide determined the Werther effect band. The relative risk during this period was examined for different ages, genders, and suicide methods. Results News reports were more numerous and they contained more positive definitions about the entertainer’s suicide. The risk of suicide deaths rose markedly after both celebrity suicides. However, the Werther effect band was longer for the entertainer (6 weeks) than for the politician (4 weeks). The relative suicide risk was significant for almost all ages and both genders during that of both individuals. Use of the same suicide method was a prominent risk factor after both celebrity suicides. Conclusions Our results confirm the existence of imitative suicide behaviours, suggesting a facilitation effect of media reports. Guidelines for responsible media reporting need to be implemented to enhance public mental health in Korea. PMID:24386428

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

2016-03-01

Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

PubMed Central

Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

2009-01-01

This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

[Ecological risk assessment of sediment pollution based on triangular fuzzy number].

PubMed

Zhou, Xiao-Wei; Wang, Li-Ping; Zheng, Bing-Hui

2008-11-01

Based on the characteristics of random and fuzziness, and the shortage and imprecision of datum information of water environmental system, environment background value of sediments and concentration of pollution is calculated by means of triangle fuzzy number and fuzzy risk assessment model of the potential ecological risk index is established. Using this method heavy metal pollution and ecological risk in the Yangtze Estuary and its adjacent waters were analyzed. The result shows that the environment of the foundation of the study area is subject to varying degrees of pollution. The pollution extents are correspondingly Cu, Hg, Zn, Pb, As, Cd. RI by that method and the Hakanson ecological risk method is in similar trend. RI of the estuary, turbidity maximum zone and Hangzhou bay is greater than that at outside of the estuary and sea area nearby Zhousan, and the potential ecological risk rate increases one. The assessment result is good in the validation based on the corresponding period macrobenthic community parameters.

The Association of Outdoor Activity and Age-Related Cataract in a Rural Population of Taizhou Eye Study: Phase 1 Report

PubMed Central

Ye, Xiaofang; Wang, Xiaofeng; Cai, Lei; Xu, Jianming; Lu, Yi

2015-01-01

Purpose To study the relationship between outdoor activity and risk of age-related cataract (ARC) in a rural population of Taizhou Eye Study (phrase 1 report). Method A population-based, cross-sectional study of 2006 eligible rural adults (≥45 years old) from Taizhou Eye Study was conducted from Jul. to Sep. 2012. Participants underwent detailed ophthalmologic examinations including uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA), best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), intraocular pressure (IOP), slit lamp and fundus examinations as well as questionnaires about previous outdoor activity and sunlight protection methods. ARC was recorded by LOCSⅢ classification system. The prevalence of cortical, nuclear and posterior subcapsular cataract were assessed separately for the risk factors and its association with outdoor activity. Results Of all 2006 eligible participants, 883 (44.0%) adults were diagnosed with ARC. The prevalence rates of cortical, nuclear and posterior subcapsular cataract per person were 41.4%, 30.4% and 1.5%, respectively. Women had a higher tendency of nuclear and cortical cataract than men (OR = 1.559, 95% CI 1.204–2.019 and OR = 1.862, 95% CI 1.456–2.380, respectively). Adults with high myopia had a higher prevalence of nuclear cataract than adults without that (OR = 2.528, 95% CI 1.055–6.062). Multivariable logistic regression revealed that age was risk factor of nuclear (OR = 1.190, 95% CI 1.167–1.213) and cortical (OR = 1.203, 95% CI 1.181–1.226) cataract; eyes with fundus diseases was risk factor of posterior subcapsular cataract (OR = 6.529, 95% CI 2.512–16.970). Outdoor activity was an independent risk factor of cortical cataract (OR = 1.043, 95% CI 1.004–1.083). The risk of cortical cataract increased 4.3% (95% CI 0.4%-8.3%) when outdoor activity time increased every one hour. Furthermore, the risk of cortical cataract increased 1.1% (95% CI 0.1%-2.0%) when cumulative UV-B exposure time increased every one year. Conclusion Outdoor activity was an independent risk factor for cortical cataract, but was not risk factor for nuclear and posterior subcapsular cataract. The risk of cortical cataract increased 4.3% when outdoor activity time increased every one hour. In addition, the risk of cortical cataract increased 1.1% (95% CI 0.1%-2.0%) when cumulative UV-B exposure time increased every one year. PMID:26284359

Shifting the Paradigm: Adolescent Cannabis Abuse and the Need for Early Intervention.

PubMed

Golick, Jennifer

2016-01-01

This article describes the increasing risks of use of marijuana and related products by adolescents. As THC content increases and methods such as "dabbing" increase frequency of use, risks of marijuana use as perceived by youth are decreasing. At a time when marijuana access is increasing nationally, a new marijuana landscape is forming in which both adolescents and treatment providers must adjust their perceptions of what was once thought of as a "harmless" drug. This article describes this new landscape, and what it may mean for adolescent drug treatment.

Geographic approaches to quantifying the risk environment: a focus on syringe exchange program site access and drug-related law enforcement activities

PubMed Central

Cooper, Hannah LF; Bossak, Brian; Tempalski, Barbara; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Friedman, Samuel R.

2009-01-01

The concept of the “risk environment” – defined as the “space … [where] factors exogenous to the individual interact to increase the chances of HIV transmission” – draws together the disciplines of public health and geography. Researchers have increasingly turned to geographic methods to quantify dimensions of the risk environment that are both structural and spatial (e.g., local poverty rates). The scientific power of the intersection between public health and geography, however, has yet to be fully mined. In particular, research on the risk environment has rarely applied geographic methods to create neighbourhood-based measures of syringe exchange programs (SEPs) or of drug-related law enforcement activities, despite the fact that these interventions are widely conceptualized as structural and spatial in nature and are two of the most well-established dimensions of the risk environment. To strengthen research on the risk environment, this paper presents a way of using geographic methods to create neighbourhood-based measures of (1) access to SEP sites and (2) exposure to drug-related arrests, and then applies these methods to one setting (New York City). NYC-based results identified substantial cross-neighbourhood variation in SEP site access and in exposure to drug-related arrest rates (even within the subset of neighbourhoods nominally experiencing the same drug-related police strategy). These geographic measures – grounded as they are in conceptualizations of SEPs and drug-related law enforcement strategies – can help develop new arenas of inquiry regarding the impact of these two dimensions of the risk environment on injectors’ health, including exploring whether and how neighbourhood-level access to SEP sites and exposure to drug-related arrests shape a range of outcomes among local injectors. PMID:18963907

Cooking methods and depressive symptoms are joint risk factors for fatigue among migrant Indonesian women working domestically in Taiwan.

PubMed

Palupi, Khairizka Citra; Shih, Chun-Kuang; Chang, Jung-Su

2017-06-01

Fatigue is a critical occupational health risk among migrant workers. Globally, more than half of migrant workers are women. However, the prevalence rate and risk factors for fatigue in domestically employed migrant women are unknown. In total, 194 Indonesian women migrants aged 20-50 years who were working in Taipei were studied. Self-perceived acculturation, dietary acculturation, BMI and haemoglobin were evaluated. Fatigue and depressive symptoms were assessed using the Brief Fatigue Inventory and Beck Depression Inventory-II, respectively. The prevalence of fatigue was 27.8%. Depressive symptoms (p<0.0001), cooking methods (p=0.027), and self-perceived feelings of sadness and weakness (p=0.003) were associated with fatigue. After adjustment for covariates, the ORs for depressive symptoms (OR: 5.40; 95% CI: 2.32-12.6), deep frying/stir frying (OR: 5.23; 95% CI: 1.27-21.5), and self-perceived feelings of sadness and weakness (OR: 3.41; 95% CI: 1.26-9.25) remained significant. An interactive analysis revealed that women without depressive symptoms who used deep frying/stir frying as a cooking method had a 3.5-fold (1-12.3) higher risk of fatigue than did those who used non-deep frying and stir frying as cooking methods (which served as the reference) for cooking. By contrast, women with depressive symptoms who used non-deep frying and stir frying had a 6.5-fold (2.8-15.3) higher risk of fatigue, and the risk increased sharply to 12.6-fold (1.26-125.8) if they used deep frying and stir frying for cooking. The risk of fatigue among migrant women working domestically is increased when they exhibit depressive symptoms and their cooking technique is frying.

Big Data Usage Patterns in the Health Care Domain: A Use Case Driven Approach Applied to the Assessment of Vaccination Benefits and Risks

PubMed Central

Liyanage, H.; Liaw, S-T.; Kuziemsky, C.; Mold, F.; Krause, P.; Fleming, D.; Jones, S.

2014-01-01

Summary Background Generally benefits and risks of vaccines can be determined from studies carried out as part of regulatory compliance, followed by surveillance of routine data; however there are some rarer and more long term events that require new methods. Big data generated by increasingly affordable personalised computing, and from pervasive computing devices is rapidly growing and low cost, high volume, cloud computing makes the processing of these data inexpensive. Objective To describe how big data and related analytical methods might be applied to assess the benefits and risks of vaccines. Method: We reviewed the literature on the use of big data to improve health, applied to generic vaccine use cases, that illustrate benefits and risks of vaccination. We defined a use case as the interaction between a user and an information system to achieve a goal. We used flu vaccination and pre-school childhood immunisation as exemplars. Results We reviewed three big data use cases relevant to assessing vaccine benefits and risks: (i) Big data processing using crowd-sourcing, distributed big data processing, and predictive analytics, (ii) Data integration from heterogeneous big data sources, e.g. the increasing range of devices in the “internet of things”, and (iii) Real-time monitoring for the direct monitoring of epidemics as well as vaccine effects via social media and other data sources. Conclusions Big data raises new ethical dilemmas, though its analysis methods can bring complementary real-time capabilities for monitoring epidemics and assessing vaccine benefit-risk balance. PMID:25123718

Personalized Risk Prediction in Clinical Oncology Research: Applications and Practical Issues Using Survival Trees and Random Forests.

PubMed

Hu, Chen; Steingrimsson, Jon Arni

2018-01-01

A crucial component of making individualized treatment decisions is to accurately predict each patient's disease risk. In clinical oncology, disease risks are often measured through time-to-event data, such as overall survival and progression/recurrence-free survival, and are often subject to censoring. Risk prediction models based on recursive partitioning methods are becoming increasingly popular largely due to their ability to handle nonlinear relationships, higher-order interactions, and/or high-dimensional covariates. The most popular recursive partitioning methods are versions of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) algorithm, which builds a simple interpretable tree structured model. With the aim of increasing prediction accuracy, the random forest algorithm averages multiple CART trees, creating a flexible risk prediction model. Risk prediction models used in clinical oncology commonly use both traditional demographic and tumor pathological factors as well as high-dimensional genetic markers and treatment parameters from multimodality treatments. In this article, we describe the most commonly used extensions of the CART and random forest algorithms to right-censored outcomes. We focus on how they differ from the methods for noncensored outcomes, and how the different splitting rules and methods for cost-complexity pruning impact these algorithms. We demonstrate these algorithms by analyzing a randomized Phase III clinical trial of breast cancer. We also conduct Monte Carlo simulations to compare the prediction accuracy of survival forests with more commonly used regression models under various scenarios. These simulation studies aim to evaluate how sensitive the prediction accuracy is to the underlying model specifications, the choice of tuning parameters, and the degrees of missing covariates.

Multicentre study of acute alcohol use and non-fatal injuries: data from the WHO collaborative study on alcohol and injuries.

PubMed Central

Borges, Guilherme; Cherpitel, Cheryl; Orozco, Ricardo; Bond, Jason; Ye, Yu; Macdonald, Scott; Rehm, Jürgen; Poznyak, Vladimir

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To study the risk of non-fatal injury at low levels and moderate levels of alcohol consumption as well as the differences in risk across modes of injury and differences among alcoholics. METHODS: Data are from patients aged 18 years and older collected in 2001-02 by the WHO collaborative study on alcohol and injuries from 10 emergency departments around the world (n = 4320). We used a case-crossover method to compare the use of alcohol during the 6 hours prior to the injury with the use of alcohol during same day of the week in the previous week. FINDINGS: The risk of injury increased with consumption of a single drink (odds ratio (OR) = 3.3; 95% confidence interval = 1.9-5.7), and there was a 10-fold increase for participants who had consumed six or more drinks during the previous 6 hours. Participants who had sustained intentional injuries were at a higher risk than participants who had sustained unintentional injuries. Patients who had no symptoms of alcohol dependence had a higher OR. CONCLUSION: Since low levels of drinking were associated with an increased risk of sustaining a non-fatal injury, and patients who are not dependent on alcohol may be at higher risk of becoming injured, comprehensive strategies for reducing harm should be implemented for all drinkers seen in emergency departments. PMID:16799729

Reducing the Risk of Damage to Power Transformers of 110 kV and Above Accompanying Internal Short Circuits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

L’vova, M. M.; L’vov, S. Yu.; Komarov, V. B.

Methods of increasing the operating reliability of power transformers, autotransformers and shunting reactors in order to reduce the risk of damage, which accompany internal short circuits and equipment fires and explosions, are considered.

Defining moments in risk communication research: 1996-2005.

PubMed

McComas, Katherine A

2006-01-01

Ten years ago, scholars suggested that risk communication was embarking on a new phase that would give increased attention to the social contexts that surround and encroach on public responses to risk information. A decade later, many researchers have answered the call, with several defining studies examining the social and psychological influences on risk communication. This article reviews risk communication research appearing in the published literature since 1996. Among studies, social trust, the social amplification of risk framework, and the affect heuristic figured prominently. Also common were studies examining the influence of risk in the mass media. Among these were content analyses of media coverage of risk, as well as investigations of possible effects resulting from coverage. The use of mental models was a dominant method for developing risk message content. Other studies examined the use of risk comparisons, narratives, and visuals in the production of risk messages. Research also examined how providing information about a risk's severity, social norms, and efficacy influenced communication behaviors and intentions to follow risk reduction measures. Methods for conducting public outreach in health risk communication rounded out the literature.

Evidence Report: Risk of Performance Errors Due to Training Deficiencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel

2012-01-01

The Risk of Performance Errors Due to Training Deficiencies is identified by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Research Program (HRP) as a recognized risk to human health and performance in space. The HRP Program Requirements Document (PRD) defines these risks. This Evidence Report provides a summary of the evidence that has been used to identify and characterize this risk. Given that training content, timing, intervals, and delivery methods must support crew task performance, and given that training paradigms will be different for long-duration missions with increased crew autonomy, there is a risk that operators will lack the skills or knowledge necessary to complete critical tasks, resulting in flight and ground crew errors and inefficiencies, failed mission and program objectives, and an increase in crew injuries.

A novel method to identify herds with an increased probability of disease introduction due to animal trade.

PubMed

Frössling, Jenny; Nusinovici, Simon; Nöremark, Maria; Widgren, Stefan; Lindberg, Ann

2014-11-15

In the design of surveillance, there is often a desire to target high risk herds. Such risk-based approaches result in better allocation of resources and improve the performance of surveillance activities. For many contagious animal diseases, movement of live animals is a main route of transmission, and because of this, herds that purchase many live animals or have a large contact network due to trade can be seen as a high risk stratum of the population. This paper presents a new method to assess herd disease risk in animal movement networks. It is an improvement to current network measures that takes direction, temporal order, and also movement size and probability of disease into account. In the study, the method was used to calculate a probability of disease ratio (PDR) of herds in simulated datasets, and of real herds based on animal movement data from dairy herds included in a bulk milk survey for Coxiella burnetii. Known differences in probability of disease are easily incorporated in the calculations and the PDR was calculated while accounting for regional differences in probability of disease, and also by applying equal probability of disease throughout the population. Each herd's increased probability of disease due to purchase of animals was compared to both the average herd and herds within the same risk stratum. The results show that the PDR is able to capture the different circumstances related to disease prevalence and animal trade contact patterns. Comparison of results based on inclusion or exclusion of differences in risk also highlights how ignoring such differences can influence the ability to correctly identify high risk herds. The method shows a potential to be useful for risk-based surveillance, in the classification of herds in control programmes or to represent influential contacts in risk factor studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Potential of household environmental resources and practices in eliminating residual malaria transmission: a case study of Tanzania, Burundi, Malawi and Liberia.

PubMed

Semakula, Henry M; Song, Guobao; Zhang, Shushen; Achuu, Simon P

2015-09-01

The increasing protection gaps of insecticide-treated nets and indoor-residual spraying methods against malaria have led to an emergence of residual transmission in sub-Saharan Africa and thus, supplementary strategies to control mosquitoes are urgently required. To assess household environmental resources and practices that increase or reduce malaria risk among children under-five years of age in order to identify those aspects that can be adopted to control residual transmission. Household environmental resources, practices and malaria test results were extracted from Malaria Indicators Survey datasets for Tanzania, Burundi, Malawi and Liberia with 16,747 children from 11,469 households utilised in the analysis. Logistic regressions were performed to quantify the contribution of each factor to malaria occurrence. Cattle rearing reduced malaria risk between 26%-49% while rearing goats increased the risk between 26%-32%. All piped-water systems reduced malaria risk between 30%-87% (Tanzania), 48%-95% (Burundi), 67%-77% (Malawi) and 58%-73 (Liberia). Flush toilets reduced malaria risk between 47%-96%. Protected-wells increased malaria risk between 19%-44%. Interestingly, boreholes increased malaria risk between 19%-75%. Charcoal use reduced malaria risk between 11%-49%. Vector control options for tackling mosquitoes were revealed based on their risk levels. These included cattle rearing, installation of piped-water systems and flush toilets as well as use of smokeless fuels.

Simulation-extrapolation method to address errors in atomic bomb survivor dosimetry on solid cancer and leukaemia mortality risk estimates, 1950-2003.

PubMed

Allodji, Rodrigue S; Schwartz, Boris; Diallo, Ibrahima; Agbovon, Césaire; Laurier, Dominique; de Vathaire, Florent

2015-08-01

Analyses of the Life Span Study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bombing survivors have routinely incorporated corrections for additive classical measurement errors using regression calibration. Recently, several studies reported that the efficiency of the simulation-extrapolation method (SIMEX) is slightly more accurate than the simple regression calibration method (RCAL). In the present paper, the SIMEX and RCAL methods have been used to address errors in atomic bomb survivor dosimetry on solid cancer and leukaemia mortality risk estimates. For instance, it is shown that using the SIMEX method, the ERR/Gy is increased by an amount of about 29 % for all solid cancer deaths using a linear model compared to the RCAL method, and the corrected EAR 10(-4) person-years at 1 Gy (the linear terms) is decreased by about 8 %, while the corrected quadratic term (EAR 10(-4) person-years/Gy(2)) is increased by about 65 % for leukaemia deaths based on a linear-quadratic model. The results with SIMEX method are slightly higher than published values. The observed differences were probably due to the fact that with the RCAL method the dosimetric data were partially corrected, while all doses were considered with the SIMEX method. Therefore, one should be careful when comparing the estimated risks and it may be useful to use several correction techniques in order to obtain a range of corrected estimates, rather than to rely on a single technique. This work will enable to improve the risk estimates derived from LSS data, and help to make more reliable the development of radiation protection standards.

Genome scan of clot lysis time and its association with thrombosis in a protein C deficient kindred

PubMed Central

Meltzer, M.E.; Hasstedt, S.J.; Vossen, C.Y.; Callas, P.W.; de Groot, Ph.G.; Rosendaal, F.R.; Lisman, T.; Bovill, E.G.

2011-01-01

Summary Background Previously we found increased clot lysis time (CLT), as measured with a plasma-based assay, to increase the risk of venous thrombosis in two population-based case-control studies. Genes influencing CLT are yet unknown. Objectives and Patients/Methods We tested CLT as risk factor for venous thrombosis in Kindred Vermont II (n=346), a pedigree suffering from a high thrombosis risk, partially attributable to a type I protein C deficiency. Furthermore we tested for quantitative trait loci (QTL) for CLT using variance component linkage analysis. Results Protein C deficient family members had shorter CLT than non-deficient members (median CLT 67 versus 75 minutes). One standard deviation increase in CLT increased risk of venous thrombosis 2.4-fold in non-deficient family members. Protein C deficiency without elevated CLT increased risk 6.9-fold. Combining both risk factors yielded a 27.8-fold increased risk. Heritability of CLT was 42-52%. We found suggestive evidence of linkage on chromosome 11 (62 cM), partly explained by the prothrombin 20210A mutation, and on chromosome 13 (52 cM). Thrombin Activatable Fibrinolysis Inhibitor genotypes did not explain the variation in CLT. Conclusion Hypofibrinolysis appears to increase thrombosis risk in this family especially in combination with protein C deficiency. Protein C deficiency is associated with short CLT. CLT is partly genetically regulated. Suggestive QTL were found on chromosome 11 and 13. PMID:21575129

Risk of Anal Cancer in Women With a Human Papillomavirus-Related Gynecological Neoplasm: Puerto Rico 1987-2013.

PubMed

Acevedo-Fontánez, Adrianna I; Suárez, Erick; Torres Cintrón, Carlos R; Ortiz, Ana P

2018-04-11

The aim of the study was to estimate the magnitude of the association between HPV-related gynecological neoplasms and secondary anal cancer among women in Puerto Rico (PR). We identified 9,489 women who had been diagnosed with a primary cervical, vaginal, or vulvar tumor during 1987-2013. To describe the trends of invasive cervical, vulvar, vaginal, and anal cancer, the age-adjusted incidence rates were estimated using the direct method (2000 US as Standard Population). Standardized incidence ratios (observed/expected) were computed using the indirect method; expected cases were calculated using 2 methods based on age-specific rates of anal cancer in PR. The ratio of standardized incidence ratios of anal cancer was estimated using the Poisson regression model to estimate the magnitude of the association between HPV-gynecologic neoplasms and secondary anal cancer. A significant increase in the incidence trend for anal cancer was observed from 1987 to 2013 (annual percent change = 1.1, p < .05), whereas from 2004 to 2013, an increase was observed for cervical cancer incidence (annual percent change = 3.3, p < .05). The risk of secondary anal cancer among women with HPV-related gynecological cancers was approximately 3 times this risk among women with non-HPV-related gynecological cancers (relative risk = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.37 to 7.79). Anal cancer is increasing among women in PR. Women with gynecological HPV-related tumors are at higher risk of secondary anal cancer as compared with women from the general population and with those with non-HPV-related gynecological cancers. Appropriate anal cancer screening guidelines for high-risk populations are needed, including women with HPV-related gynecological malignancies and potentially other cancer survivors.

Changes in Association between Previous Therapeutic Abortion and Preterm Birth in Scotland, 1980 to 2008: A Historical Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Oliver-Williams, Clare; Fleming, Michael; Monteath, Kirsten; Wood, Angela M.; Smith, Gordon C. S.

2013-01-01

Background Numerous studies have demonstrated that therapeutic termination of pregnancy (abortion) is associated with an increased risk of subsequent preterm birth. However, the literature is inconsistent, and methods of abortion have changed dramatically over the last 30 years. We hypothesized that the association between previous abortion and the risk of preterm first birth changed in Scotland between 1 January 1980 and 31 December 2008. Methods and Findings We studied linked Scottish national databases of births and perinatal deaths. We analysed the risk of preterm birth in relation to the number of previous abortions in 732,719 first births (≥24 wk), adjusting for maternal characteristics. The risk (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI]) of preterm birth was modelled using logistic regression, and associations were expressed for a one-unit increase in the number of previous abortions. Previous abortion was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth (1.12 [1.09–1.16]). When analysed by year of delivery, the association was strongest in 1980–1983 (1.32 [1.21–1.43]), progressively declined between 1984 and 1999, and was no longer apparent in 2000–2003 (0.98 [0.91–1.05]) or 2004–2008 (1.02 [0.95–1.09]). A statistical test for interaction between previous abortion and year was highly statistically significant (p<0.001). Analysis of data for abortions among nulliparous women in Scotland 1992–2008 demonstrated that the proportion that were surgical without use of cervical pre-treatment decreased from 31% to 0.4%, and that the proportion of medical abortions increased from 18% to 68%. Conclusions Previous abortion was a risk factor for spontaneous preterm birth in Scotland in the 1980s and 1990s, but the association progressively weakened and disappeared altogether by 2000. These changes were paralleled by increasing use of medical abortion and cervical pre-treatment prior to surgical abortion. Although it is plausible that the two trends were related, we could not test this directly as the data on the method of prior abortions were not linked to individuals in the cohort. However, we speculate that modernising abortion methods may be an effective long-term strategy to reduce global rates of preterm birth. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23874161

Sarcopenia in daily practice: assessment and management.

PubMed

Beaudart, Charlotte; McCloskey, Eugène; Bruyère, Olivier; Cesari, Matteo; Rolland, Yves; Rizzoli, René; Araujo de Carvalho, Islène; Amuthavalli Thiyagarajan, Jotheeswaran; Bautmans, Ivan; Bertière, Marie-Claude; Brandi, Maria Luisa; Al-Daghri, Nasser M; Burlet, Nansa; Cavalier, Etienne; Cerreta, Francesca; Cherubini, Antonio; Fielding, Roger; Gielen, Evelien; Landi, Francesco; Petermans, Jean; Reginster, Jean-Yves; Visser, Marjolein; Kanis, John; Cooper, Cyrus

2016-10-05

Sarcopenia is increasingly recognized as a correlate of ageing and is associated with increased likelihood of adverse outcomes including falls, fractures, frailty and mortality. Several tools have been recommended to assess muscle mass, muscle strength and physical performance in clinical trials. Whilst these tools have proven to be accurate and reliable in investigational settings, many are not easily applied to daily practice. This paper is based on literature reviews performed by members of the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis (ESCEO) working group on frailty and sarcopenia. Face-to-face meetings were afterwards organized for the whole group to make amendments and discuss further recommendations. This paper proposes some user-friendly and inexpensive methods that can be used to assess sarcopenia in real-life settings. Healthcare providers, particularly in primary care, should consider an assessment of sarcopenia in individuals at increased risk; suggested tools for assessing risk include the Red Flag Method, the SARC-F questionnaire, the SMI method or different prediction equations. Management of sarcopenia should primarily be patient centered and involve the combination of both resistance and endurance based activity programmes with or without dietary interventions. Development of a number of pharmacological interventions is also in progress. Assessment of sarcopenia in individuals with risk factors, symptoms and/or conditions exposing them to the risk of disability will become particularly important in the near future.

Risk and protective factors for suicidal ideation and behaviour in Rwandan children

PubMed Central

Ng, Lauren C.; Kirk, Catherine M.; Kanyanganzi, Frederick; Fawzi, Mary C. Smith; Sezibera, Vincent; Shema, Evelyne; Bizimana, Justin I.; Cyamatare, Felix R.; Betancourt, Theresa S.

2015-01-01

Background Suicide is a leading cause of death for young people. Children living in sub-Saharan Africa, where HIV rates are disproportionately high, may be at increased risk. Aims To identify predictors, including HIV status, of suicidal ideation and behaviour in Rwandan children aged 10–17. Method Matched case–control study of 683 HIV-positive, HIV-affected (seronegative children with an HIV-positive caregiver), and unaffected children and their caregivers. Results Over 20% of HIV-positive and affected children engaged in suicidal behaviour in the previous 6 months, compared with 13% of unaffected children. Children were at increased risk if they met criteria for depression, were at high-risk for conduct disorder, reported poor parenting or had caregivers with mental health problems. Conclusions Policies and programmes that address mental health concerns and support positive parenting may prevent suicidal ideation and behaviour in children at increased risk related to HIV. PMID:26045350

Perceived Risks Associated with Contraceptive Method Use among Men and Women in Ibadan and Kaduna, Nigeria.

PubMed

Schwandt, Hilary M; Skinner, Joanna; Hebert, Luciana E; Saad, Abdulmumin

2015-12-01

Research shows that side effects are often the most common reason for contraceptive non-use in Nigeria; however, research to date has not explored the underlying factors that influence risk and benefit perceptions associated with specific contraceptive methods in Nigeria. A qualitative study design using focus group discussions was used to explore social attitudes and beliefs about family planning methods in Ibadan and Kaduna, Nigeria. A total of 26 focus group discussions were held in 2010 with men and women of reproductive age, disaggregated by city, sex, age, marital status, neighborhood socioeconomic status, and--for women only--family planning experience. A discussion guide was used that included specific questions about the perceived risks and benefits associated with the use of six different family planning methods. A thematic content analytic approach guided the analysis. Participants identified a spectrum of risks encompassing perceived threats to health (both real and fictitious) and social concerns, as well as benefits associated with each method. By exploring Nigerian perspectives on the risks and benefits associated with specific family planning methods, programs aiming to increase contraceptive use in Nigeria can be better equipped to highlight recognized benefits, address specific concerns, and work to dispel misperceptions associated with each family planning method.

Public trust in genomic risk assessment for type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Mills, Rachel; Barry, William; Haga, Susanne B

2014-06-01

Patient trust in personal medical information is critical to increasing adherence to physician recommendations and medications. One of the anticipated benefits of learning of one's genomic risk for common diseases is the increased adoption of screening, preventive care and lifestyle changes. However, the equivocal results thus far reported of the positive impact of knowledge of genomic risk on behavior change may be due to lack of patients' trust in the results. As part of a clinical study to compare two methods of communication of genomic risk results for Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), we assessed patients' trust and preferred methods of delivery of genomic risk information. A total of 300 participants recruited from the general public in Durham, NC were randomized to receive their genomic risk for T2DM in-person from a genetic counselor or online through the testing company's web-site. Participants completed a baseline survey and three follow-up surveys after receiving results. Overall, participants reported high levels of trust in the test results. Participants who received their results in-person from the genetic counselor were significantly more likely to trust their results than those who reviewed their results on-line (p = 0.005). There was not a statistically significant difference in levels of trust among participants with increased genetic risk, as compared to other those with decreased or same as population risk (p = 0.1154). In the event they undergo genomic risk testing again, 55 % of participants overall indicated they would prefer to receive their results online compared to 28 % that would prefer to receive future results in-person. Of those participants preferring to receive results online, 77 % indicated they would prefer to have the option to speak to someone if they had questions with the online results (compared to accessing results online without the option of professional consultation). This is the first study to assess satisfaction with genomic risk testing by the method of delivery of the test result. The higher rate of trust in results delivered in-person suggests that online access reports may not result in serious consideration of results and lack of adoption of recommended preventive recommendations.

Public Trust in Genomic Risk Assessment for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

PubMed Central

Mills, Rachel; Barry, William; Haga, Susanne B.

2014-01-01

Patient trust in personal medical information is critical to increasing adherence to physician recommendations and medications. One of the anticipated benefits of learning of one’s genomic risk for common diseases is the increased adoption of screening, preventive care and lifestyle changes. However, the equivocal results thus far reported of the positive impact of knowledge of genomic risk on behavior change may be due to lack of patients’ trust in the results. As part of a clinical study to compare two methods of communication of genomic risk results for Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), we assessed patients’ trust and preferred methods of delivery of genomic risk information. A total of 300 participants recruited from the general public in Durham, NC were randomized to receive their genomic risk for T2DM in-person from a genetic counselor or online through the testing company’s web-site. Participants completed a baseline survey and three follow-up surveys after receiving results. Overall, participants reported high levels of trust in the test results. Participants who received their results in-person from the genetic counselor were significantly more likely to trust their results than those who reviewed their results on-line (p=0.005). There was not a statistically significant difference in levels of trust among participants with increased genetic risk, as compared to other those with decreased or same as population risk (p = 0.1154). In the event they undergo genomic risk testing again, 55% of participants overall indicated they would prefer to receive their results online compared to 28% that would prefer to receive future results in-person. Of those participants preferring to receive results online, 77% indicated they would prefer to have the option to speak to someone if they had questions with the online results (compared to accessing results online without the option of professional consultation). This is the first study to assess satisfaction with genomic risk testing by the method of delivery of the test result. The higher rate of trust in results delivered in-person suggests that online access reports may not result in serious consideration of results and lack of adoption of recommended preventive recommendations. PMID:24292896

Variation in Breast Cancer-Risk Factor Associations by Method of Detection: Results From a Series of Case-Control Studies.

PubMed

Sprague, Brian L; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Egan, Kathleen M; Titus, Linda J; Kerlikowske, Karla; Remington, Patrick L; Newcomb, Polly A; Trentham-Dietz, Amy

2015-06-15

Concerns about breast cancer overdiagnosis have increased the need to understand how cancers detected through screening mammography differ from those first detected by a woman or her clinician. We investigated risk factor associations for invasive breast cancer by method of detection within a series of case-control studies (1992-2007) carried out in Wisconsin, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire (n=15,648 invasive breast cancer patients and 17,602 controls aged 40-79 years). Approximately half of case women reported that their cancer had been detected by mammographic screening and half that they or their clinician had detected it. In polytomous logistic regression models, parity and age at first birth were more strongly associated with risk of mammography-detected breast cancer than with risk of woman/clinician-detected breast cancer (P≤0.01; adjusted for mammography utilization). Among postmenopausal women, estrogen-progestin hormone use was predominantly associated with risk of woman/clinician-detected breast cancer (odds ratio (OR)=1.49, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29, 1.72), whereas obesity was predominantly associated with risk of mammography-detected breast cancer (OR=1.72, 95% CI: 1.54, 1.92). Among regularly screened premenopausal women, obesity was not associated with increased risk of mammography-detected breast cancer (OR=0.99, 95% CI: 0.83, 1.18), but it was associated with reduced risk of woman/clinician-detected breast cancer (OR=0.53, 95% CI: 0.43, 0.64). These findings indicate important differences in breast cancer risk factors according to method of detection. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessing risk of injury in people with mental retardation living in an intermediate care facility.

PubMed

Konarski, Edward A; Tassé, Marc

2005-09-01

A brief instrument to assess risk of injury was applied retrospectively for 2 years and prospectively for 1 year to all people living in a large ICF/MR. Results suggest that the percentage of people who experienced an injury significantly increased across the levels of increasing risk indicated by the assessment. Furthermore, people who experienced an injury had significantly higher risk scores than those who did not. Using psychometric analyses, we found a mean correlation of .79 for interrater reliability and .90 for test-retest reliability on individual items and correlations of .91 and .95, respectively, on total score. We conclude that the assessment has promise as a reliable and valid method for predicting injury risk level.

Urban Sprawl and Risk for Being Overweight or Obese

PubMed Central

Lopez, Russ

2004-01-01

Objectives. I examined the association between urban sprawl and the risk for being overweight or obese among US adults. Methods. A measure of urban sprawl in metropolitan areas was derived from the 2000 US Census; individual-level data were obtained from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. I used multilevel analysis to assess the association between urban sprawl and obesity. Results. After I controlled for gender, age, race/ethnicity, income, and education, for each 1-point rise in the urban sprawl index (0–100 scale), the risk for being overweight increased by 0.2% and the risk for being obese increased by 0.5%. Conclusions. The current obesity epidemic has many causes, but there is an association between urban sprawl and obesity. PMID:15333317

Mathematical modelling and quantitative methods.

PubMed

Edler, L; Poirier, K; Dourson, M; Kleiner, J; Mileson, B; Nordmann, H; Renwick, A; Slob, W; Walton, K; Würtzen, G

2002-01-01

The present review reports on the mathematical methods and statistical techniques presently available for hazard characterisation. The state of the art of mathematical modelling and quantitative methods used currently for regulatory decision-making in Europe and additional potential methods for risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet are described. Existing practices of JECFA, FDA, EPA, etc., are examined for their similarities and differences. A framework is established for the development of new and improved quantitative methodologies. Areas for refinement, improvement and increase of efficiency of each method are identified in a gap analysis. Based on this critical evaluation, needs for future research are defined. It is concluded from our work that mathematical modelling of the dose-response relationship would improve the risk assessment process. An adequate characterisation of the dose-response relationship by mathematical modelling clearly requires the use of a sufficient number of dose groups to achieve a range of different response levels. This need not necessarily lead to an increase in the total number of animals in the study if an appropriate design is used. Chemical-specific data relating to the mode or mechanism of action and/or the toxicokinetics of the chemical should be used for dose-response characterisation whenever possible. It is concluded that a single method of hazard characterisation would not be suitable for all kinds of risk assessments, and that a range of different approaches is necessary so that the method used is the most appropriate for the data available and for the risk characterisation issue. Future refinements to dose-response characterisation should incorporate more clearly the extent of uncertainty and variability in the resulting output.

A risk-based statistical investigation of the quantification of polymorphic purity of a pharmaceutical candidate by solid-state 19F NMR.

PubMed

Barry, Samantha J; Pham, Tran N; Borman, Phil J; Edwards, Andrew J; Watson, Simon A

2012-01-27

The DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyse, Improve and Control) framework and associated statistical tools have been applied to both identify and reduce variability observed in a quantitative (19)F solid-state NMR (SSNMR) analytical method. The method had been developed to quantify levels of an additional polymorph (Form 3) in batches of an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), where Form 1 is the predominant polymorph. In order to validate analyses of the polymorphic form, a single batch of API was used as a standard each time the method was used. The level of Form 3 in this standard was observed to gradually increase over time, the effect not being immediately apparent due to method variability. In order to determine the cause of this unexpected increase and to reduce method variability, a risk-based statistical investigation was performed to identify potential factors which could be responsible for these effects. Factors identified by the risk assessment were investigated using a series of designed experiments to gain a greater understanding of the method. The increase of the level of Form 3 in the standard was primarily found to correlate with the number of repeat analyses, an effect not previously reported in SSNMR literature. Differences in data processing (phasing and linewidth) were found to be responsible for the variability in the method. After implementing corrective actions the variability was reduced such that the level of Form 3 was within an acceptable range of ±1% ww(-1) in fresh samples of API. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Sexting, Risk Behavior, and Mental Health in Adolescents: An Examination of 2015 Pennsylvania Youth Risk Behavior Survey Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frankel, Anne S.; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Patterson, Freda; Dai, Ting; Brown, Deanna

2018-01-01

Background: Sexting, the sharing of sexually suggestive photos, may be a gateway behavior to early sexual activity and increase the likelihood of social ostracism. Methods: Youth Risk Behavior Survey (N = 6021) data from 2015 among Pennsylvania 9th-12th grade students were used to examine associations between consensual and nonconsensual sexting…

Value of EZSCAN parameters for diabetes screening in Chinese.

PubMed

Lin, Yanhui; Chen, Zhiheng; Guo, Xu; Deng, Yulin

2017-05-23

To study the parameters of EZSCAN as a screening tool for diabetes in Chinese. A total of 6,270 subjects participated in the study. All subjects underwent tests of EZSCAN, fasting plasma glucose (FPG), oral glucose tolerance test and HbA 1c . 1. All subjects were divided into 4 groups: the normal group, sugar metabolic abnormalities as low-risk group, middle-risk group and high-risk group. The difference of diabetes incidence among the 4 groups was statistically significant. With the increase of EZSCAN score, the prevalence of diabetes increased significantly. But there is no statistically difference between the low-risk group and the middle-risk group. 2. After adjustment for other variables, there is significantly positive relationship among EZSCAN risk score and the risk of diabetes. Meanwhile there is no statistically difference between the low-risk group and the middle-risk group. 3. The cut-off point of EZSCAN for diabetes was 44.5% with the sensitivity was 73.2% which was higher than of FPG and HbA 1c . As EZSCAN-diabetes risk score increases, the risk of diabetes increases. EZSCAN can be used as a tool for screening for diabetes. At the best screening diabetes cut-off point value 44.5%, the sensitivity is higher than traditional method of FPG and HbA 1c . Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Principal component analysis of dietary and lifestyle patterns in relation to risk of subtypes of esophageal and gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Silvera, Stephanie A. Navarro; Mayne, Susan T; Risch, Harvey A.; Gammon, Marilie D; Vaughan, Thomas; Chow, Wong-Ho; Dubin, Joel A; Dubrow, Robert; Schoenberg, Janet; Stanford, Janet L; West, A. Brian; Rotterdam, Heidrun; Blot, William J

2011-01-01

Purpose To perform pattern analyses of dietary and lifestyle factors in relation to risk of esophageal and gastric cancers. Methods We evaluated risk factors for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA), and other gastric cancers (OGA) using data from a population-based case-control study conducted in Connecticut, New Jersey, and western Washington state. Dietary/lifestyle patterns were created using principal component analysis (PCA). Impact of the resultant scores on cancer risk was estimated through logistic regression. Results PCA identified six patterns: meat/nitrite, fruit/vegetable, smoking/alcohol, legume/meat alternate, GERD/BMI, and fish/vitamin C. Risk of each cancer under study increased with rising meat/nitrite score. Risk of EA increased with increasing GERD/BMI score, and risk of ESCC rose with increasing smoking/alcohol score and decreasing GERD/BMI score. Fruit/vegetable scores were inversely associated with EA, ESCC, and GCA. Conclusions PCA may provide a useful approach for summarizing extensive dietary/lifestyle data into fewer interpretable combinations that discriminate between cancer cases and controls. The analyses suggest that meat/nitrite intake is associated with elevated risk of each cancer under study, while fruit/vegetable intake reduces risk of EA, ESCC, and GCA. GERD/obesity were confirmed as risk factors for EA and smoking/alcohol as risk factors for ESCC. PMID:21435900

Application of Risk within Net Present Value Calculations for Government Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grandl, Paul R.; Youngblood, Alisha D.; Componation, Paul; Gholston, Sampson

2007-01-01

In January 2004, President Bush announced a new vision for space exploration. This included retirement of the current Space Shuttle fleet by 2010 and the development of new set of launch vehicles. The President's vision did not include significant increases in the NASA budget, so these development programs need to be cost conscious. Current trade study procedures address factors such as performance, reliability, safety, manufacturing, maintainability, operations, and costs. It would be desirable, however, to have increased insight into the cost factors behind each of the proposed system architectures. This paper reports on a set of component trade studies completed on the upper stage engine for the new launch vehicles. Increased insight into architecture costs was developed by including a Net Present Value (NPV) method and applying a set of associated risks to the base parametric cost data. The use of the NPV method along with the risks was found to add fidelity to the trade study and provide additional information to support the selection of a more robust design architecture.

Preoperative posterior tilt of at least 20° increased the risk of fixation failure in Garden-I and -II femoral neck fractures.

PubMed

Dolatowski, Filip C; Adampour, Mina; Frihagen, Frede; Stavem, Knut; Erik Utvåg, Stein; Hoelsbrekken, Sigurd Erik

2016-06-01

Background and purpose - It has been suggested that preoperative posterior tilt of the femoral head may increase the risk of fixation failure in Garden-I and -II femoral neck fractures. To investigate this association, we studied a cohort of 322 such patients. Patients and methods - Patients treated with internal fixation between 2005 and 2012 were retrospectively identified using hospital records and the digital image bank. 2 raters measured the preoperative posterior tilt angle and categorized it into 3 groups: < 10°, 10-20°, and ≥ 20°. The inter-rater reliability (IRR) was determined. Patients were observed until September 2013 (with a minimum follow-up of 18 months) or until failure of fixation necessitating salvage arthroplasty. The risk of fixation failure was assessed using competing-risk regression analysis, adjusting for time to surgery. Results - Patients with a posterior tilt of ≥ 20° had a higher risk of fixation failure: 19% (8/43) as compared to 11% (14/127) in the 10-20° category and 6% (9/152) in the < 10° category (p = 0.03). Posterior tilt of ≥ 20° increased the risk of fixation failure, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 3.4 (95% CI: 1.3-8.9; p = 0.01). The interclass correlation coefficient for angular measurements of posterior tilt was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.87-0.92), and the IRR for the categorization of posterior tilt into 3 groups was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.69-0.81). Interpretation - Preoperative posterior tilt of ≥ 20° in Garden-I and -II femoral neck fractures increased the risk of fixation failure necessitating salvage arthroplasty. The reliability of the methods that we used to measure posterior tilt ranged from good to excellent.

Autonomous Aerobraking Using Thermal Response Surface Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prince, Jill L.; Dec, John A.; Tolson, Robert H.

2007-01-01

Aerobraking is a proven method of significantly increasing the science payload that can be placed into low Mars orbits when compared to an all propulsive capture. However, the aerobraking phase is long and has mission cost and risk implications. The main cost benefit is that aerobraking permits the use of a smaller and cheaper launch vehicle, but additional operational costs are incurred during the long aerobraking phase. Risk is increased due to the repeated thermal loading of spacecraft components and the multiple attitude and propulsive maneuvers required for successful aerobraking. Both the cost and risk burdens can be significantly reduced by automating the aerobraking operations phase. All of the previous Mars orbiter missions that have utilized aerobraking have increasingly relied on onboard calculations during aerobraking. Even though the temperature of spacecraft components has been the limiting factor, operational methods have relied on using a surrogate variable for mission control. This paper describes several methods, based directly on spacecraft component maximum temperature, for autonomously predicting the subsequent aerobraking orbits and prescribing apoapsis propulsive maneuvers to maintain the spacecraft within specified temperature limits. Specifically, this paper describes the use of thermal response surface analysis in predicting the temperature of the spacecraft components and the corresponding uncertainty in this temperature prediction.

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Hazard and Risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Nepal Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounce, David; McKinney, Daene

2016-04-01

As the climate changes and glaciers continue to melt, the number of glacial lakes and the size of these lakes is rapidly increasing. These glacial lakes are contained by terminal moraines composed of debris, soil, and sometimes ice, which are susceptible to fail catastrophically and cause a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). Understanding the hazard and risk associated with these lakes is important for downstream communities and other stakeholders, e.g., hydroelectric companies. Unfortunately, existing methods that are used to assess GLOF hazards yield conflicting classifications, which leads to confusion amongst the stakeholders who these studies are meant to assist. This study assesses existing methods on potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal and uses these methods to develop an objective and holistic risk & action framework that may be used to assist and prioritize risk-mitigation actions.

Spatial analysis on human brucellosis incidence in mainland China: 2004–2010

PubMed Central

Zhang, Junhui; Yin, Fei; Zhang, Tao; Yang, Chao; Zhang, Xingyu; Feng, Zijian; Li, Xiaosong

2014-01-01

Objectives China has experienced a sharply increasing rate of human brucellosis in recent years. Effective spatial monitoring of human brucellosis incidence is very important for successful implementation of control and prevention programmes. The purpose of this paper is to apply exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods and the empirical Bayes (EB) smoothing technique to monitor county-level incidence rates for human brucellosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2010 by examining spatial patterns. Methods ESDA methods were used to characterise spatial patterns of EB smoothed incidence rates for human brucellosis based on county-level data obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP) in mainland China from 2004 to 2010. Results EB smoothed incidence rates for human brucellosis were spatially dependent during 2004–2010. The local Moran test identified significantly high-risk clusters of human brucellosis (all p values <0.01), which persisted during the 7-year study period. High-risk counties were centred in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and other Northern provinces (ie, Hebei, Shanxi, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces) around the border with the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region where animal husbandry was highly developed. The number of high-risk counties increased from 25 in 2004 to 54 in 2010. Conclusions ESDA methods and the EB smoothing technique can assist public health officials in identifying high-risk areas. Allocating more resources to high-risk areas is an effective way to reduce human brucellosis incidence. PMID:24713215

Assessing the effect of public health information by incentivised risk estimation: An example on Swedish snus.

PubMed

Bergsvik, Daniel; Rogeberg, Ole

2018-04-01

The provision of accurate information on health damaging behaviours and products is a widely accepted and widespread governmental task. It is easily mismanaged. This study demonstrates a simple method which can help to evaluate whether such information corrects recipient risk beliefs. Participants assess risks numerically, before and after being exposed to a relevant risk communication. Accuracy is incentivised by awarding financial prizes to answers closest to a pursued risk belief. To illustrate this method, 228 students from the University of Oslo, Norway, were asked to estimate the mortality risk of Swedish snus and cigarettes twice, before and after being exposed to one of three risk communications with information on the health dangers of snus. The data allow us to measure how participants updated their risk beliefs after being exposed to different risk communications. Risk information from the government strongly distorted risk perceptions for snus. A newspaper article discussing the relative risks of cigarettes and snus reduced belief errors regarding snus risks, but increased belief errors regarding smoking. The perceived quality of the risk communication was not associated with decreased belief errors. Public health information can potentially make the public less informed on risks about harmful products or behaviours. This risk can be reduced by targeting identified, measurable belief errors and empirically assessing how alternative communications affect these. The proposed method of incentivised risk estimation might be helpful in future assessments of risk communications. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Methods for assessing the potential health risks of traces of pharmaceuticals in drinking water].

PubMed

Kozísek, Frantisek; Jeligová, Hana

2012-01-01

Increasing consumption of pharmaceuticals leads also to higher release of its non-metabolized residues into environment, mostly hydrosphere. Some of these substances may reach also processed drinking water. Although it is found in traces, it causes public concern as it can represent a non-targeted and unwanted medication. Toxicologists and public health authorities are appealed to assess potential health risks carefully and to communicate the risk adequately to public. As health risks assessment of environmental exposure to pharmaceuticals is a new field of expertise, its methodology has not been unified and standardized yet, but several different procedures have been proposed and used. The paper provides overview of these methods.

Left Ventricular Mass and Geometry and the Risk of Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Di Tullio, Marco R.; Zwas, Donna R.; Sacco, Ralph L.; Sciacca, Robert R.; Homma, Shunichi

2009-01-01

Background and Purpose Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) is a risk factor for cardiovascular events, but its effect on ischemic stroke risk is established mainly in whites. The effect of LV geometry on stroke risk has not been defined. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether LVH and LV geometry are independently associated with increased ischemic stroke risk in a multiethnic population. Methods A population-based case-control study was conducted on 394 patients with first ischemic stroke and 413 age-, sex-, and race-ethnicity–matched community control subjects. LV mass was measured by transthoracic echocardiography. LV geometric patterns (normal, concentric remodeling, concentric or eccentric hypertrophy) were identified. Stroke risk associated with LVH and different LV geometric patterns was assessed by conditional logistic regression analysis in the overall group and age, sex, and race-ethnic strata, with adjustment for established stroke risk factors. Results Concentric hypertrophy carried the greatest stroke risk (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0 to 6.2), followed by eccentric hypertrophy (adjusted OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 2.0 to 4.3). Concentric remodeling carried slightly increased stroke risk (adjusted OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0 to 2.9). Increased LV relative wall thickness was independently associated with stroke after adjustment for LV mass (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.3). Conclusions LVH and abnormal LV geometry are independently associated with increased stroke risk. LVH is strongly associated with ischemic stroke in all age, sex, and race-ethnic subgroups. Increased LV relative wall thickness imparts an increased stroke risk after adjustment for LV mass and is of additional value in stroke risk prediction. PMID:12958319

Groundwater Nitrate Contamination Risk Assessment in Canicattì area (Sicily)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisciotta, Antonino; Cusimano, Gioacchino; Favara, Rocco

2010-05-01

Groundwaters play a dominant role in the Sicily, because as most part of Mediterranean countries this island is interested by the phenomenon of desertification and the quality of the groundwater reservoir is one of the most important aim for the management policy strategies. During last decade most of the Italian regions the nitrate levels in river and groundwaters have increased gradually over mainly as a consequence of large-scale agricultural application of manure and fertilizers, thereby threatening drinking water quality. The excessive use of chemicals and fertilizers increases the risk to pollution of surface and groundwater from diffuse source, an important reflex to human health and the environment. The studied area is located in Canicattì (central Sicily, Italy), the current land use (grape, olive grove and almond) is the main source of groundwater pollution. In order to investigate the effect of the over farming on the groundwater quality we report the study on the potential risk of contamination from nitrate of agricultural origin through the join of the application of two parametric methods: the IPNOA method (the intrinsic nitrate contamination risk from Agricultural sources) applied to define the Nitrate Vulnerable Zones and the SINTACS method applied to determine the aquifer vulnerability to contamination.

Multi-stage methodology to detect health insurance claim fraud.

PubMed

Johnson, Marina Evrim; Nagarur, Nagen

2016-09-01

Healthcare costs in the US, as well as in other countries, increase rapidly due to demographic, economic, social, and legal changes. This increase in healthcare costs impacts both government and private health insurance systems. Fraudulent behaviors of healthcare providers and patients have become a serious burden to insurance systems by bringing unnecessary costs. Insurance companies thus develop methods to identify fraud. This paper proposes a new multistage methodology for insurance companies to detect fraud committed by providers and patients. The first three stages aim at detecting abnormalities among providers, services, and claim amounts. Stage four then integrates the information obtained in the previous three stages into an overall risk measure. Subsequently, a decision tree based method in stage five computes risk threshold values. The final decision stating whether the claim is fraudulent is made by comparing the risk value obtained in stage four with the risk threshold value from stage five. The research methodology performs well on real-world insurance data.

TU-EF-204-09: A Preliminary Method of Risk-Informed Optimization of Tube Current Modulation for Dose Reduction in CT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Y; Liu, B; Kalra, M

Purpose: X-rays from CT scans can increase cancer risk to patients. Lifetime Attributable Risk of Cancer Incidence for adult patients has been investigated and shown to decrease as patient age. However, a new risk model shows an increasing risk trend for several radiosensitive organs for middle age patients. This study investigates the feasibility of a general method for optimizing tube current modulation (TCM) functions to minimize risk by reducing radiation dose to radiosensitive organs of patients. Methods: Organ-based TCM has been investigated in literature for eye lens dose and breast dose. Adopting the concept in organ-based TCM, this study seeksmore » to find an optimized tube current for minimal total risk to breasts and lungs by reducing dose to these organs. The contributions of each CT view to organ dose are determined through simulations of CT scan view-by-view using a GPU-based fast Monte Carlo code, ARCHER. A Linear Programming problem is established for tube current optimization, with Monte Carlo results as weighting factors at each view. A pre-determined dose is used as upper dose boundary, and tube current of each view is optimized to minimize the total risk. Results: An optimized tube current is found to minimize the total risk of lungs and breasts: compared to fixed current, the risk is reduced by 13%, with breast dose reduced by 38% and lung dose reduced by 7%. The average tube current is maintained during optimization to maintain image quality. In addition, dose to other organs in chest region is slightly affected, with relative change in dose smaller than 10%. Conclusion: Optimized tube current plans can be generated to minimize cancer risk to lungs and breasts while maintaining image quality. In the future, various risk models and greater number of projections per rotation will be simulated on phantoms of different gender and age. National Institutes of Health R01EB015478.« less

[Hospital risk management from the viewpoint of insurers].

PubMed

Gausmann, Peter; Petry, Franz Michael

2004-10-01

The present article deals with the significance of risk management in hospitals from the viewpoint of liability insurers. From the perspective of insurance companies, the liability risk of a hospital and its personnel has considerably increased during the past 25 years. The present risk situation is characterized by a growing number of reported liability cases, as well as by an enormous increase of average compensation claims. This development has led some insurance companies to financial deficits in the segment of hospital liability. While some insurers have withdrawn their activities from this market segment, others have reacted by raising their premiums. Since in Germany the premiums usually depend on the number of beds held by a hospital, the problem of rising premiums is exacerbated by the general increase of the number of clinical cases in the face of a parallel reduction of the number of beds. In the process of finding new criteria or methods for adequate premium calculation, a key role will be played by the individual future risk development of a hospital and by the evaluation of this risk by its insurance company. An extensive system of clinical quality management supported by elements of risk management will have persistent positive effects on the development of individual insurance premiums and on the insurability of clinical liability. Risk management is defined as the totality of measures taken by a company to identify risks that could lead to reduced success. Clinical risk management must be regarded in the context of a general trend that is not limited to the field of health service. In this process, the handling of errors and their causes plays a central role. Further variants of hospital risk management are the technical and economic risk management, both of which are increasingly important and are in part implemented in the German legislation. Clinical risk management has originated from the U.S., where as early as in the nineteen-seventies instruments and methods have been developed to avoid errors. Important application fields are anesthetics, surgery, orthopedics, and obstetrics. Risk management is primarily a task of the internal personnel of a hospital. The support by external consultants promises additional benefits for the hospital. Measures of classical risk management usually are essential elements of any quality management system; as such, they are therefore certifiable. Certification alone, however, does not prove the sustained efficiency of a risk-prevention system.

Fracture risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and possible risk factors: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Moayeri, Ardeshir; Mohamadpour, Mahmoud; Mousavi, Seyedeh Fatemeh; Shirzadpour, Ehsan; Mohamadpour, Safoura; Amraei, Mansour

2017-01-01

Aim Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have an increased risk of bone fractures. A variable increase in fracture risk has been reported depending on skeletal site, diabetes duration, study design, insulin use, and so on. The present meta-analysis aimed to investigate the association between T2DM with fracture risk and possible risk factors. Methods Different databases including PubMed, Institute for Scientific Information, and Scopus were searched up to May 2016. All epidemiologic studies on the association between T2DM and fracture risk were included. The relevant data obtained from these papers were analyzed by a random effects model and publication bias was assessed by funnel plot. All analyses were done by R software (version 3.2.1) and STATA (version 11.1). Results Thirty eligible studies were selected for the meta-analysis. We found a statistically significant positive association between T2DM and hip, vertebral, or foot fractures and no association between T2DM and wrist, proximal humerus, or ankle fractures. Overall, T2DM was associated with an increased risk of any fracture (summary relative risk =1.05, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.06) and increased with age, duration of diabetes, and insulin therapy. Conclusion Our findings strongly support an association between T2DM and increased risk of overall fracture. These findings emphasize the need for fracture prevention strategies in patients with diabetes. PMID:28442913

Cost-effectiveness of electronic training in domestic violence risk assessment: ODARA 101.

PubMed

Hilton, N Zoe; Ham, Elke

2015-03-01

The need for domestic violence training has increased with the development of evidence-based risk assessment tools, which must be scored correctly for valid application. Emerging research indicates that training in domestic violence risk assessment can increase scoring accuracy, but despite the increasing popularity of electronic training, it is not yet known whether it can be an effective method of risk assessment training. In the present study, 87 assessors from various professions had training in the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment either face-to-face or using an electronic training program. The two conditions were equally effective, as measured by performance on a post-training skill acquisition test. Completion rates were 100% for face-to-face and 86% for electronic training, an improvement over a previously evaluated manual-only condition. The estimated per-trainee cost of electronic training was one third that of face-to-face training and expected to decrease. More rigorous evaluations of electronic training for risk assessment are recommended. © The Author(s) 2014.

Occupational Exposures and Chronic Kidney Disease: Possible associations with endotoxin and ultrafine particles

PubMed Central

Sponholtz, Todd R.; Sandler, Dale P.; Parks, Christine G.; Applebaum, Katie M.

2015-01-01

Background Chronic kidney disease (CKD) carries a high public health burden yet there is limited research on occupational factors, which are examined in this retrospective case-control study. Methods Newly diagnosed cases of CKD (n=547) and controls (n=508) from North Carolina provided detailed work histories in telephone interviews. Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results There was heterogeneity in the association of CKD and agricultural work, with crop production associated with increased risk and work with livestock associated with decreased risk. Work with cutting/cooling/lubricating oils was associated with a reduced risk. CKD risk was increased for working in dusty conditions. Conclusions CKD risk was reduced in subjects with occupational exposures previously reported to involve endotoxin exposure. Further, exposure to dusty conditions was consistently associated with increased risk of glomerulonephritis across industry, suggesting that research on CKD and ultrafine particulates is needed. PMID:26572099

Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments.

PubMed

Conners, Erin E; West, Brooke S; Roth, Alexis M; Meckel-Parker, Kristen G; Kwan, Mei-Po; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Staines-Orozco, Hugo; Clapp, John D; Brouwer, Kimberly C

2016-01-01

Increasingly, 'place', including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC), whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs) in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1) Participatory mapping; 2) Quantitative interviews; 3) Sex work venue field observation; 4) Time-location-activity diaries; 5) In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions.

Quantitative, Qualitative and Geospatial Methods to Characterize HIV Risk Environments

PubMed Central

Conners, Erin E.; West, Brooke S.; Roth, Alexis M.; Meckel-Parker, Kristen G.; Kwan, Mei-Po; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Staines-Orozco, Hugo; Clapp, John D.; Brouwer, Kimberly C.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ‘place’, including physical and geographical characteristics as well as social meanings, is recognized as an important factor driving individual and community health risks. This is especially true among marginalized populations in low and middle income countries (LMIC), whose environments may also be more difficult to study using traditional methods. In the NIH-funded longitudinal study Mapa de Salud, we employed a novel approach to exploring the risk environment of female sex workers (FSWs) in two Mexico/U.S. border cities, Tijuana and Ciudad Juárez. In this paper we describe the development, implementation, and feasibility of a mix of quantitative and qualitative tools used to capture the HIV risk environments of FSWs in an LMIC setting. The methods were: 1) Participatory mapping; 2) Quantitative interviews; 3) Sex work venue field observation; 4) Time-location-activity diaries; 5) In-depth interviews about daily activity spaces. We found that the mixed-methodology outlined was both feasible to implement and acceptable to participants. These methods can generate geospatial data to assess the role of the environment on drug and sexual risk behaviors among high risk populations. Additionally, the adaptation of existing methods for marginalized populations in resource constrained contexts provides new opportunities for informing public health interventions. PMID:27191846

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Association between Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide and Respiratory Disease in China.

PubMed

Sun, Jiyao; Barnes, Andrew J; He, Dongyang; Wang, Meng; Wang, Jian

2017-06-16

Objective: This study aimed to assess the quantitative effects of short-term exposure of ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) on respiratory disease (RD) mortality and RD hospital admission in China through systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: A total of 29 publications were finally selected from searches in PubMed, Web of Science, CNKI and Wanfang databases. Generic inverse variance method was used to pool effect estimates. Pooled estimates were used to represent the increased risk of RD mortality and RD hospital admission per 10 μg/m³ increase in NO₂ concentration. Results: Positive correlations were found between short-term NO₂ exposure and RD in China. RD mortality and RD hospital admission respectively increased by 1.4% (95% CI: 1.1%, 1.7%) and 1.0% (95% CI: 0.5%, 1.5%) per 10 μg/m³ increase in NO₂ concentration. Differences were observed across geographic regions of China. The risk of RD mortality due to NO₂ was higher in the southern region (1.7%) than in the north (0.7%). Conclusions : Evidence was found that short-term exposure to NO₂ was associated with an increased risk of RD mortality and RD hospital admission in China and these risks were more pronounced in the southern regions of the country, due in part to a larger proportion of elderly persons with increased susceptibility to NO₂ in the population compared with the north.

In vitro fertilization (IVF) in Sweden: risk for congenital malformations after different IVF methods.

PubMed

Källén, Bengt; Finnström, Orvar; Nygren, Karl Gösta; Olausson, Petra Otterblad

2005-03-01

The possible excess of congenital malformations in infants born after in vitro fertilization (IVF) has been much discussed in the literature, with controversial conclusions. This population based study is aimed at analyzing the presence of congenital malformations in a large group of infants born after IVF and to compare malformation risk both with that of all infants born and according to IVF method used. Infants born after IVF during the period 1982-2001 were ascertained from all IVF clinics in Sweden. The presence of congenital malformations was identified from three national health registers: the Swedish Medical Birth Register, the Swedish Registry of Congenital Malformations, and the Swedish Hospital Discharge Register. The IVF children were compared with all children born in Sweden during the same period and recorded in the Swedish Medical Birth Register. Among 16,280 IVF children (30% conceived after intracytoplasmatic sperm injection [ICSI]) a 42% excess of any congenital malformation was found, explainable by parental characteristics and in some cases by the high rate of multiple births. Among these children, 8% had a congenital malformation, and 5% had a relatively severe condition. For neural tube defects, choanal atresia, and alimentary tract atresia, an additional risk increase was seen. There was no difference in malformation rate according to IVF method except for an excess of hypospadias after ICSI. An increased risk for congenital malformations occurs after IVF, similar for the different IVF techniques used, and mainly a consequence of parental characteristics. A few specific conditions show an extra increase in risk. Copyright 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Explanatory Style in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: An Unrecognized Predictor of Mortality

PubMed Central

Crowson, Aaron D.; Colligan, Robert C.; Matteson, Eric L.; Davis, John M.; Crowson, Cynthia S.

2016-01-01

Objective To determine whether pessimistic explanatory style altered the risk for and mortality of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Methods The study included subjects from a population-based cohort with incident RA and non-RA comparison cohort who completed the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI). Results Among 148 RA and 135 non-RA subjects, pessimism was associated with development of rheumatoid factor positive (RF+) RA. Pessimism was associated with an increased risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR]:2.88 with similar magnitude to RF+ (HR:2.28). Conclusion Pessimistic explanatory style was associated with an increased risk of developing RA and increased mortality rate in patients with RA. PMID:28148754

Will HIV Vaccination Reshape HIV Risk Behavior Networks? A Social Network Analysis of Drug Users' Anticipated Risk Compensation

PubMed Central

Young, April M.; Halgin, Daniel S.; DiClemente, Ralph J.; Sterk, Claire E.; Havens, Jennifer R.

2014-01-01

Background An HIV vaccine could substantially impact the epidemic. However, risk compensation (RC), or post-vaccination increase in risk behavior, could present a major challenge. The methodology used in previous studies of risk compensation has been almost exclusively individual-level in focus, and has not explored how increased risk behavior could affect the connectivity of risk networks. This study examined the impact of anticipated HIV vaccine-related RC on the structure of high-risk drug users' sexual and injection risk network. Methods A sample of 433 rural drug users in the US provided data on their risk relationships (i.e., those involving recent unprotected sex and/or injection equipment sharing). Dyad-specific data were collected on likelihood of increasing/initiating risk behavior if they, their partner, or they and their partner received an HIV vaccine. Using these data and social network analysis, a "post-vaccination network" was constructed and compared to the current network on measures relevant to HIV transmission, including network size, cohesiveness (e.g., diameter, component structure, density), and centrality. Results Participants reported 488 risk relationships. Few reported an intention to decrease condom use or increase equipment sharing (4% and 1%, respectively). RC intent was reported in 30 existing risk relationships and vaccination was anticipated to elicit the formation of five new relationships. RC resulted in a 5% increase in risk network size (n = 142 to n = 149) and a significant increase in network density. The initiation of risk relationships resulted in the connection of otherwise disconnected network components, with the largest doubling in size from five to ten. Conclusions This study demonstrates a new methodological approach to studying RC and reveals that behavior change following HIV vaccination could potentially impact risk network connectivity. These data will be valuable in parameterizing future network models that can determine if network-level change precipitated by RC would appreciably impact the vaccine's population-level effectiveness. PMID:24992659

Impact of Proteinuria and Glomerular Filtration Rate on Risk of Thromboembolism in Atrial Fibrillation: the ATRIA Study

PubMed Central

Go, Alan S.; Fang, Margaret C.; Udaltsova, Natalia; Chang, Yuchiao; Pomernacki, Niela K.; Borowsky, Leila; Singer, Daniel E.

2009-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) substantially increases the risk of ischemic stroke but this risk varies among individual patients with AF. Existing risk stratification schemes have limited predictive ability. Chronic kidney disease is a major cardiovascular risk factor, but whether it independently increases the risk for ischemic stroke in persons with AF is unknown. Methods and Results We examined how chronic kidney disease (reduced glomerular filtration rate or proteinuria) affects risk of thromboembolism off anticoagulation in patients with AF. We estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation and proteinuria from urine dipstick results found in laboratory databases. Patient characteristics, warfarin use, and thromboembolic events were ascertained from clinical databases, with validation of thromboembolism by chart review. Results During 33,165 person-years off anticoagulation among 10,908 patients with atrial fibrillation, we observed 676 incident thromboembolic events. After adjustment for known risk factors for stroke and other confounders, proteinuria increased the risk of thromboembolism by 54% (relative risk [RR] 1.54, 1.29 to 1.85) and there was a graded, increased risk of stroke associated with progressively lower level of eGFR compared with eGFR ≥60 (in units of ml/min/1.73 m2): RR 1.16 (95% CI: 0.95−1.40) for eGFR 45−59 and RR 1.39 (95% CI: 1.13−1.71) for eGFR <45 (P=0.0082 for trend). Conclusions . Chronic kidney disease increases the risk of thromboembolism in AF independent of other risk factors. Knowing the level of kidney function and presence of proteinuria may improve risk stratification for decision-making about the use of antithrombotic therapy for stroke prevention in AF. PMID:19255343

A probabilistic method for computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injuries compensation claims.

PubMed

Dalle Carbonare, S; Folli, F; Patrini, E; Giudici, P; Bellazzi, R

2013-01-01

The increasing demand of health care services and the complexity of health care delivery require Health Care Organizations (HCOs) to approach clinical risk management through proper methods and tools. An important aspect of risk management is to exploit the analysis of medical injuries compensation claims in order to reduce adverse events and, at the same time, to optimize the costs of health insurance policies. This work provides a probabilistic method to estimate the risk level of a HCO by computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injury compensation claims. Our method is based on the estimate of a loss probability distribution from compensation claims data through parametric and non-parametric modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. The loss distribution can be estimated both on the whole dataset and, thanks to the application of a Bayesian hierarchical model, on stratified data. The approach allows to quantitatively assessing the risk structure of the HCO by analyzing the loss distribution and deriving its expected value and percentiles. We applied the proposed method to 206 cases of injuries with compensation requests collected from 1999 to the first semester of 2007 by the HCO of Lodi, in the Northern part of Italy. We computed the risk indexes taking into account the different clinical departments and the different hospitals involved. The approach proved to be useful to understand the HCO risk structure in terms of frequency, severity, expected and unexpected loss related to adverse events.

Efficacy of ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk landing patterns during a sport-specific task.

PubMed

Fox, A S; Bonacci, J; McLean, S G; Saunders, N

2017-05-01

Screening methods sensitive to movement strategies that increase anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) loads are likely to be effective in identifying athletes at-risk of ACL injury. Current ACL injury risk screening methods are yet to be evaluated for their ability to identify athletes' who exhibit high-risk lower limb mechanics during sport-specific maneuvers associated with ACL injury occurrences. The purpose of this study was to examine the efficacy of two ACL injury risk screening methods in identifying high-risk lower limb mechanics during a sport-specific landing task. Thirty-two female athletes were screened using the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) and Tuck Jump Assessment. Participants' also completed a sport-specific landing task, during which three-dimensional kinematic and kinetic data were collected. One-dimensional statistical parametric mapping was used to examine the relationships between screening method scores, and the three-dimensional hip and knee joint rotation and moment data from the sport-specific landing. Higher LESS scores were associated with reduced knee flexion from 30 to 57 ms after initial contact (P = 0.003) during the sport-specific landing; however, no additional relationships were found. These findings suggest the LESS and Tuck Jump Assessment may have minimal applicability in identifying athletes' who exhibit high-risk landing postures in the sport-specific task examined. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing the Relationship Between Chronic Health Conditions and Productivity Loss Trajectories

PubMed Central

Pranksy, Glenn

2014-01-01

Objective: To examine the relationship between health conditions and the risk for membership in longitudinal trajectories of productivity loss. Methods: Trajectories of productivity loss from the ages of 25 to 44 years, previously identified in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79), were combined with information on health conditions from the age 40 years health module in the NLSY79. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the relative risk of being in the low-risk, early-onset increasing risk, late-onset increasing risk, or high-risk trajectories compared with the no-risk trajectory for having various health conditions. Results: The trajectories with the greatest probability of productivity loss longitudinally had a greater prevalence of the individual health conditions and a greater total number of health conditions experienced. Conclusions: Health conditions are associated with specific longitudinal patterns of experiencing productivity loss. PMID:25479294

The QT Interval and Risk of Incident Atrial Fibrillation

PubMed Central

Mandyam, Mala C.; Soliman, Elsayed Z.; Alonso, Alvaro; Dewland, Thomas A.; Heckbert, Susan R.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Cummings, Steven R.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Chaitman, Bernard R.; Stocke, Karen; Applegate, William B.; Arking, Dan E.; Butler, Javed; Loehr, Laura R.; Magnani, Jared W.; Murphy, Rachel A.; Satterfield, Suzanne; Newman, Anne B.; Marcus, Gregory M.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND Abnormal atrial repolarization is important in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF), but no direct measurement is available in clinical medicine. OBJECTIVE To determine whether the QT interval, a marker of ventricular repolarization, could be used to predict incident AF. METHODS We examined a prolonged QT corrected by the Framingham formula (QTFram) as a predictor of incident AF in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. The Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study were used for validation. Secondary predictors included QT duration as a continuous variable, a short QT interval, and QT intervals corrected by other formulae. RESULTS Among 14,538 ARIC participants, a prolonged QTFram predicted a roughly two-fold increased risk of AF (hazard ratio [HR] 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.42–2.96, p<0.001). No substantive attenuation was observed after adjustment for age, race, sex, study center, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, coronary disease, and heart failure. The findings were validated in CHS and Health ABC and were similar across various QT correction methods. Also in ARIC, each 10-ms increase in QTFram was associated with an increased unadjusted (HR 1.14, 95%CI 1.10–1.17, p<0.001) and adjusted (HR 1.11, 95%CI 1.07–1.14, p<0.001) risk of AF. Findings regarding a short QT were inconsistent across cohorts. CONCLUSIONS A prolonged QT interval is associated with an increased risk of incident AF. PMID:23872693

When the Personal Becomes Problematic: The Ethics of Using Experiential Teaching Methods.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grauerholz, Elizabeth; Copenhaver, Stacey

1994-01-01

Maintains that experiential methods that rely on students' own life experiences and involve self-disclosure are becoming increasingly common in sociology courses that deal with difficult subjects. Discusses benefits and risks involved in using such methods in a student-instructor dialog. (CFR)

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Covariance between predation risk and nutritional preferences confound interpretations of giving-up density experiments.

PubMed

McMahon, Jordan D; Lashley, Marcus A; Brooks, Christopher P; Barton, Brandon T

2018-04-26

Giving-up density (GUD) experiments have been a foundational method to evaluate perceived predation risk, but rely on the assumption that food preferences are absolute, so that areas with higher GUDs can be interpreted as having higher risk. However, nutritional preferences are context dependent and can change with risk. We used spiders and grasshoppers to test the hypothesis that covariance in nutritional preferences and risk may confound the interpretation of GUD experiments. We presented grasshoppers with carbohydrate-rich and protein-rich diets, in the presence and absence of spider predators. Predators reduced grasshopper preference for the protein-rich food, but increased their preference for the carbohydrate-rich food. We then measured GUDs with both food types under different levels of risk (spider density, 0 - 5). As expected, GUDs increased with spider density indicating increasing risk, but only when using protein-rich food. With carbohydrate-rich food, GUD was independent of predation risk. Our results demonstrate that predation risk and nutritional preferences covary and can confound interpretation of GUD experiments. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Psychiatric morbidity after surgery for inflammatory bowel disease: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Zangenberg, Marie Strøm; El-Hussuna, Alaa

2017-01-01

AIM To examine the evidence about psychiatric morbidity after inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)-related surgery. METHODS PRISMA guidelines were followed and a protocol was published at PROSPERO (CRD42016037600). Inclusion criteria were studies describing patients with inflammatory bowel disease undergoing surgery and their risk of developing psychiatric disorder. RESULTS Twelve studies (including 4340 patients) were eligible. All studies were non-randomized and most had high risk of bias. Patients operated for inflammatory bowel disease had an increased risk of developing depression, compared with surgical patients with diverticulitis or inguinal hernia, but not cancer. In addition, patients with Crohn’s disease had higher risk of depression after surgery compared with non-surgical patients. Patients with ulcerative colitis had higher risk of anxiety after surgery compared with surgical colorectal cancer patients. Charlson comorbidity score more than three and female gender were independent predictors for depression and anxiety following surgery. CONCLUSION The review cannot give any clear answer to the risks of psychiatric morbidity after surgery for IBD studies with the lowest risk of bias indicated an increased risk of depression among surgical patients with Crohn’s disease and increased risk of anxiety among patients with ulcerative colitis. PMID:29358872

Long-term risk of malignancy among patients treated with immunosuppressive agents for ocular inflammation: A critical assessment of the evidence

PubMed Central

Kempen, John H.; Gangaputra, Sapna; Daniel, Ebenezer; Levy-Clarke, Grace A.; Nussenblatt, Robert B.; Rosenbaum, James T.; Suhler, Eric B.; Thorne, Jennifer E.; Foster, C. Stephen; Jabs, Douglas A.; Helzlsouer, Kathy J.

2008-01-01

Purpose To critically assess potentially carcinogenic effects of immunosuppressive therapy in the ocular inflammation setting Design Focused evidence assessment. Methods Relevant publications were identified by MEDLINE and EMBASE queries and reference list searches. Results Extrapolation from transplant, rheumatology, skin disease and inflammatory bowel disease cohorts to the ocular inflammation setting suggest that: 1) alkylating agents increase hematologic malignancy risk and cyclophosphamide increases bladder cancer risk, but less so with ≤18 months’ duration of therapy and hydration respectively; 2) calcineurin inhibitors and azathioprine probably do not increase total cancer risk to a detectable degree, except perhaps some other risk factors (uncommon in ocular inflammation patients) might interact with the former to raise risk; 3) Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) inhibitors may accelerate diagnosis of cancer in the first 6–12 months, but probably do not increase long-term cancer risk; and 4) changes in risk with methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil, and daclizumab appear negligible although non-transplant data are limited for the latter agents. Immunosuppression in general may increase skin cancer risk in a sun-exposure dependent manner. Conclusion Use of alkylating agents for a limited duration seems justifiable for severe, vision-threatening disease, but otherwise cancer risk may be a relevant constraint on use of this approach. Antimetabolites, daclizumab, TNF-inhibitors, and calcineurin inhibitors probably do not increase cancer risk to a degree that outweighs the expected benefits of therapy. Monitoring for skin cancer may be useful for highly sun-exposed patients. Data from ocular inflammation patients are needed to confirm the conclusions made in this analysis by extrapolation. PMID:18579112

Missing in space: an evaluation of imputation methods for missing data in spatial analysis of risk factors for type II diabetes.

PubMed

Baker, Jannah; White, Nicole; Mengersen, Kerrie

2014-11-20

Spatial analysis is increasingly important for identifying modifiable geographic risk factors for disease. However, spatial health data from surveys are often incomplete, ranging from missing data for only a few variables, to missing data for many variables. For spatial analyses of health outcomes, selection of an appropriate imputation method is critical in order to produce the most accurate inferences. We present a cross-validation approach to select between three imputation methods for health survey data with correlated lifestyle covariates, using as a case study, type II diabetes mellitus (DM II) risk across 71 Queensland Local Government Areas (LGAs). We compare the accuracy of mean imputation to imputation using multivariate normal and conditional autoregressive prior distributions. Choice of imputation method depends upon the application and is not necessarily the most complex method. Mean imputation was selected as the most accurate method in this application. Selecting an appropriate imputation method for health survey data, after accounting for spatial correlation and correlation between covariates, allows more complete analysis of geographic risk factors for disease with more confidence in the results to inform public policy decision-making.

Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.

PubMed

Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans

2017-01-01

The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.

Work Activity in Pregnancy, Preventive Measures, and the Risk of Delivering a Small-for-Gestational-Age Infant

PubMed Central

Croteau, Agathe; Marcoux, Sylvie; Brisson, Chantal

2006-01-01

Objectives. We undertook a case–control study to evaluate whether some occupational conditions during pregnancy increase the risk of delivering a small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infant and whether taking measures to eliminate these conditions decreases that risk. Methods. The 1536 cases and 4441 controls were selected from 43898 women who had single live births between January 1997 and March 1999 in Québec, Canada. The women were interviewed by telephone after delivery. Results. The risk of having an SGA infant increased with an irregular or shift-work schedule alone and with a cumulative index of the following occupational conditions: night hours, irregular or shift-work schedule, standing, lifting loads, noise, and high psychological demand combined with low social support. When the conditions were not eliminated, the risk increased with the number of conditions (Ptrend =.004; odds ratios=1.00, 1.08, 1.28, 1.43, and 2.29 for 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4–6 conditions, respectively). Elimination of the conditions before 24 weeks of pregnancy brought the risks close to those of unexposed women. Conclusions. Certain occupational conditions experienced by pregnant women can increase their risk of having an SGA infant, but preventive measures can reduce the risk. PMID:16571706

Quantifying Risk of Adverse Clinical Events With One Set of Vital Signs Among Primary Care Patients with Hypertension

PubMed Central

Tierney, William M; Brunt, Margaret; Kesterson, Joseph; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; L’Italien, Gil; Lapuerta, Pablo

2004-01-01

BACKGROUND Hypertension is often uncontrolled. One reason might be physicians’ reticence to modify therapy in response to single office measurements of vital signs. METHODS Using electronic records from an inner-city primary care practice, we extracted information about vital signs, diagnoses, test results, and drug therapy available on the first primary care visit in 1993 for patients with hypertension. We then identified multivariable predictors of subsequent vascular complications in the ensuing 5 years. RESULTS Of 5,825 patients (mean age 57 years) previously treated for hypertension for 5.6 years, 7% developed myocardial infarctions, 17% had strokes, 24% developed ischemic heart disease, 22% had heart failure, 12% developed renal insufficiency, and 13% died in 5 years. Controlling for other clinical data, a 10-mmHg increase in systolic blood pressure was associated with 13% increased risk (95% confidence interval [CI], 6%–21%) of renal insufficiency, 9% (95% CI, 3%–15%) increased risk of ischemic heart disease, 7% (95% CI, 3%–11%) increased risk of stroke, and 6% (95% CI, 2%–9%) increased risk of first stroke or myocardial infarction. A 10-mmHg elevation in mean blood pressure predicted a 12% (95% CI, 5%–20%) increased risk of heart failure. An increase in heart rate of 10 beats per minute predicted a 16% (95% CI, 2%–5%) increased risk of death. Diastolic blood pressure predicted only a 13% (95% CI, 4%–23%) increased risk of first stroke. CONCLUSIONS Vital signs—especially systolic blood pressure—recorded routinely during a single primary care visit had significant prognostic value for multiple adverse clinical events among patients treated for hypertension and should not be ignored by clinicians. PMID:15209196

Effect of Exposure to Suicidal Behavior on Suicide Attempt in a High-Risk Sample of Offspring of Depressed Parents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burke, Ainsley K.; Galfalvy, Hanga; Everett, Benjamin; Currier, Dianne; Zelazny, Jamie; Oquendo, Maria A.; Melhem, Nadine M.; Kolko, David; Harkavy-Friedman, Jill M.; Birmaher, Boris; Stanley, Barbara; Mann, J. John; Brent, David A.

2010-01-01

Objective: Exposure to suicidal behavior in peers and relatives is thought to increase risk for suicidal behavior in vulnerable individuals, possibly as a result of imitation or modeling. This study examines exposure to suicidal behavior and likelihood of suicide attempt in a high-risk cohort of offspring of a depressed parent. Method: A total of…

Adolescent Inpatient Behavioral Health Clients: Risk Factors and Methods of Preventing an Increase in HIV Infection among Youth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hackerman, Ann E.

2002-01-01

There has been a surge in the rates of adolescents who are becoming infected with HIV. This study of 214 at risk clients being treated on an inpatient psychiatric hospitalization basis examines why such clients continue to engage in high-risk behaviors. Results and suggestions for a psychoeducational curriculum for professionals are included.…

Constipation and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease among Post-Menopausal Women

PubMed Central

Salmoirago-Blotcher, Elena; Crawford, Sybil; Jackson, Elizabeth; Ockene, Judith; Ockene, Ira

2011-01-01

Background Constipation is common in Western societies, accounting for 2.5 million-physician visits/year in the US. Since many factors predisposing to constipation are also risk factors for cardiovascular disease, we hypothesized that constipation may be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events. Methods We conducted a secondary analysis in 93,676 women enrolled in the observational arm of the Women’s Health Initiative. Constipation was evaluated at baseline by a self-administered questionnaire. Estimates of the risk of cardiovascular events (cumulative endpoint including mortality from coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, angina, coronary revascularization, stroke and transient ischemic attack) were derived from Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographics, risk factors and other clinical variables (median follow-up: 6.9 years). Results The analysis included 73,047 women. Constipation was associated with increased age, African American and Hispanic descent, smoking, diabetes, high cholesterol, family history of myocardial infarction, hypertension, obesity, lower physical activity levels, lower fiber intake, and depression. Women with moderate and severe constipation experienced more cardiovascular events (14.2 and 19.1 events/1000 person-years, respectively) compared to women with no constipation (9.6/1000 person-years). After adjustment for demographics, risk factors, dietary factors, medications, frailty and other psychological variables, constipation was no longer associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events except for the severe constipation group, which had a 23% higher risk of cardiovascular events. Conclusion In postmenopausal women, constipation is a marker for cardiovascular risk factors and increased cardiovascular risk. Since constipation is easily assessed, it may be a helpful tool to identify women with increased cardiovascular risk. PMID:21663887

XRCC2 Polymorphisms and Environmental Factors Predict High Risk of Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Wang, Lijie; Ma, Junxun; Yang, Bo; Jing, Fangfang; Hu, Yi

2018-05-07

BACKGROUND This case-control study aimed to analyze the association of [i]XRCC2[/i] polymorphisms (rs3218408 and rs3218384) with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The interaction of [i]XRCC2[/i] polymorphisms with environmental factors was investigated as well. MATERIAL AND METHODS We enrolled 147 CRC patients and 114 healthy individuals into the study. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-sequencing method was performed to detect rs3218408 and rs3218384 polymorphisms. Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) was checked in the control group. Odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) represented the risk of CRC. Cross-table method was used in analyzing the interaction effects. RESULTS Compared to the control group, the frequency of smokers was much higher in the case group ([i]P[/i]<0.001). A similar result was observed in drinkers (55.8% [i]vs.[/i] 40.4%, [i]P[/i]=0.013). Dietary habits of all subjects were investigated as well, showing that CRC patients ate fewer vegetables than did healthy controls (P<0.001). In the analysis of polymorphisms, rs3218408 appeared to be an independent risk factor of CRC (GG: OR=2.048, 95%CI=1.032-4.061; G allele: OR=1.445, 95%CI=1.019-2.049). There were 68 (76.4%) C allele carriers (rs3218384) among smokers, which was higher than the number of G allele carriers ([i]P[/i]<0.001). A similar outcome was observed for alcohol drinkers ([i]P[/i]=0.048), which suggests a relationship of rs3218384 with smoking and drinking. Further analysis indicated that interaction of rs3218384 with smoking increased the risk of CRC (GG and smoking: OR=3.250, 95%CI=1.235-8.556; GC+CC and smoking: OR=2.167, 95%CI=1.175-3.996). CONCLUSIONS We found that rs3218408 was related with increased risk of CRC, and the interaction of rs3218384 with smoking increased the risk of CRC.

A Review of Health Risks and Pathways for Exposure to Wastewater Use in Agriculture

PubMed Central

Dickin, Sarah K.; Schuster-Wallace, Corinne J.; Qadir, Manzoor; Pizzacalla, Katherine

2016-01-01

Background: Wastewater is increasingly being used in the agricultural sector to cope with the depletion of freshwater resources as well as water stress linked to changing climate conditions. As wastewater irrigation expands, research focusing on the human health risks is critical because exposure to a range of contaminants must be weighed with the benefits to food security, nutrition and livelihoods. Objectives: The goal of this paper was to review research examining health risks and exposure pathways associated with wastewater irrigation to identify research trends and gaps. Methods: We conducted a review of the literature and identified a total of 126 studies published from 1995 to 2013. Findings were summarized based on several themes including types of exposure pathways, wastewater contaminants, methodological approaches and the geographical distribution of research. Results: Only 23 studies used epidemiological methods, while most research applied alternative methods to estimate risk, such as quantitative risk assessment models or comparisons of crop contamination to established guidelines for wastewater reuse. A geographic breakdown demonstrated a focus on microbiological contaminants in specific regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, despite growing chemical risks associated with rapid urbanization and industrialization that may change the types and distribution of wastewater contaminants. Conclusions: To provide a more comprehensive understanding of the health risks of wastewater use in agriculture, future research should consider multiple exposure routes, long-term health implications, and increase the range of contaminants studied, particularly in regions heavily dependent on wastewater irrigation. Citation: Dickin SK, Schuster-Wallace CJ, Qadir M, Pizzacalla K. 2016. A review of health risks and pathways for exposure to wastewater use in agriculture. Environ Health Perspect 124:900–909; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509995 PMID:26824464

Computer-Assisted Diabetes Risk Assessment and Education (CADRAE) for Medically Vulnerable Populations in the Middle East: a Novel and Practical Method for Prevention

PubMed Central

Rowther, Armaan A.; Dykzeul, Brad; Billimek, John; Abuhassan, Deyana; Anderson, Craig; Lotfipour, Shahram

2016-01-01

The prevalence of diabetes in the Middle East is increasing rapidly due to urbanization, reduced levels of physical activity, and a nutritional transition toward increased consumption of fats and refined carbohydrates. Preventive strategies are of paramount importance to stemming the tide. Portable touch-screen computer technology may hold an answer for alleviating the burdens of cost, time, and training that limit the implementation of diabetes risk screening and intervention, especially among refugees and other vulnerable populations. The Computer-Assisted Diabetes Risk Assessment and Education (CADRAE) Arabic-language intervention program is proposed as a model method for practicing proactive type 2 diabetes prevention in resource-limited settings of the Middle East that combines the efficiency of risk-score screening methods, the advantages of portable computer interface, and the spirit of brief motivational interviewing. This paper aims to describe the theory and novel design of CADRAE—introduced at the Noor Al Hussein Foundation's Institute of Family Health in January 2014—as well as discuss opportunities and challenges for its implementation and evaluation in primary or emergency care settings. Features of CADRAE are elucidated in detail, including development, translation, conceptual framework, theoretical basis, method of risk assessment, brief intervention style, definition of outcomes, requirements for implementation, and potential means of evaluation and quality improvement. CADRAE offers the first example of portable computer technology integrating diabetes risk screening with behavior change counseling tailored for an Arabic-speaking population of mostly refugees and could offer a valuable model for researchers and policy makers of the Middle East as well as other resource-limited settings. PMID:26835181

Effect of a Micro-Level, Three-Tiered Positive Behavior Support Plan for Absenteeism: A Mixed Method Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clayton, Melinda

2012-01-01

Student absentee rates remain a problem in spite of increased attention to absenteeism since the passing of the No Child Left Behind Act in 2002. High rates of absenteeism correlate to low academic achievement, early drop out, and increased risk of alcohol and drug abuse and criminal activity. This mixed method research design incorporated…

Risk Assessment for Stonecutting Enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleksandrova, A. J.; Timofeeva, S. S.

2017-04-01

Working conditions at enterprises and artisanal workshops for the processing of jewelry and ornamental stones were considered. The main stages of the technological process for processing of stone raw materials were shown; dangerous processes in the extraction of stone and its processing were identified. The characteristic of harmful and dangerous production factors affecting stonecutters is given. It was revealed that the most dangerous are the increased level of noise and vibration, as well as chemical reagents. The results of a special assessment of the working conditions of stone-cutting plant workers are studied. Professions with high professional risk were identified; an analysis of occupational risks and occupational injuries was carried out. Risk assessment was produced by several methods; professions with high and medium risk indicators were identified by results of the evaluation. The application of risk assessment methods was given the possibility to justify rational measures reducing risks to the lowest possible level. The received quantitative indicators of risk of workers of the stone-cutting enterprises are the result of this work.

Disease Risk Score (DRS) as a Confounder Summary Method: Systematic Review and Recommendations

PubMed Central

Tadrous, Mina; Gagne, Joshua J.; Stürmer, Til; Cadarette, Suzanne M.

2013-01-01

Purpose To systematically examine trends and applications of the disease risk score (DRS) as a confounder summary method. Methods We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science® to identify all English language articles that applied DRS methods. We tabulated the number of publications by year and type (empirical application, methodological contribution, or review paper) and summarized methods used in empirical applications overall and by publication year (<2000, ≥2000). Results Of 714 unique articles identified, 97 examined DRS methods and 86 were empirical applications. We observed a bimodal distribution in the number of publications over time, with a peak 1979-1980, and resurgence since 2000. The majority of applications with methodological detail derived DRS using logistic regression (47%), used DRS as a categorical variable in regression (93%), and applied DRS in a non-experimental cohort (47%) or case-control (42%) study. Few studies examined effect modification by outcome risk (23%). Conclusion Use of DRS methods has increased yet remains low. Comparative effectiveness research may benefit from more DRS applications, particularly to examine effect modification by outcome risk. Standardized terminology may facilitate identification, application, and comprehension of DRS methods. More research is needed to support the application of DRS methods, particularly in case-control studies. PMID:23172692

Melanocytic nevi, nevus genes and melanoma risk in a large case-control study in the United Kingdom

PubMed Central

Newton-Bishop, Julia A; Chang, Yu-Mei; Iles, Mark M; Taylor, John C; Bakker, Bert; Chan, May; Leake, Susan; Karpavicius, Birute; Haynes, Sue; Fitzgibbon, Elaine; Elliott, Faye; Kanetsky, Peter A.; Harland, Mark; Barrett, Jennifer H; Bishop, D Timothy

2010-01-01

Background Increased number of melanocytic nevi is a potent melanoma risk factor. We have carried out a large population-based case-control study to explore the environmental and genetic determinants of nevi and the relationship with melanoma risk. Methods We report nevus phenotype in relation to differing patterns of sun exposure, inherited variation at loci shown in recent genome-wide association studies to be nevus genes, and risk. Results Increased numbers of nevi were associated with holiday sun exposure, particularly on intermittently sun-exposed body sites (test for trend p<0.0001). Large nevi were also associated with holiday sun exposure (p=0.002). Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosomes 9 and 22 were associated with increased numbers of nevi (p=0.04 and p=0.002 respectively) and larger nevi (p=0.03 and p=0.002), whereas that on chromosome 6 was associated only with large nevi (p=0.01). Melanoma risk was associated with increased nevus count, large nevi and atypical nevi for tumors in all body sites (including rare sites) irrespective of age. The risk persisted when adjusted for inheritance of nevus SNPs. Conclusions The at-risk nevus phenotype is associated with behaviors known to increase melanoma risk (holiday sun exposure). Although SNPs on chromosomes 6, 9 and 22 were shown to be nevus genes they explained only a small proportion of melanoma risk and nevus phenotype; therefore a number of nevus genes likely remain to be identified. Impact This paper confirms the importance of nevi in melanoma pathogenesis and increases understanding of their genetic determinants. PMID:20647408

[Cost]effectiveness of withdrawal of fall-risk increasing drugs versus conservative treatment in older fallers: design of a multicenter randomized controlled trial (IMPROveFALL-study)

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Fall incidents represent an increasing public health problem in aging societies worldwide. A major risk factor for falls is the use of fall-risk increasing drugs. The primary aim of the study is to compare the effect of a structured medication assessment including the withdrawal of fall-risk increasing drugs on the number of new falls versus 'care as usual' in older adults presenting at the Emergency Department after a fall. Methods/Design A prospective, multi-center, randomized controlled trial will be conducted in hospitals in the Netherlands. Persons aged ≥65 years who visit the Emergency Department due to a fall are invited to participate in this trial. All patients receive a full geriatric assessment at the research outpatient clinic. Patients are randomized between a structured medication assessment including withdrawal of fall-risk increasing drugs and 'care as usual'. A 3-monthly falls calendar is used for assessing the number of falls, fallers and associated injuries over a one-year follow-up period. Measurements will be at three, six, nine, and twelve months and include functional outcome, healthcare consumption, socio-demographic characteristics, and clinical information. After twelve months a second visit to the research outpatient clinic will be performed, and adherence to the new medication regimen in the intervention group will be measured. The primary outcome will be the incidence of new falls. Secondary outcome measurements are possible health effects of medication withdrawal, health-related quality of life (Short Form-12 and EuroQol-5D), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the intervention. Data will be analyzed using an intention-to-treat analysis. Discussion The successful completion of this trial will provide evidence on the effectiveness of withdrawal of fall-risk increasing drugs in older patients as a method for falls reduction. Trial Registration The trial is registered in the Netherlands Trial Register (NTR1593) PMID:21854643

Factors Affecting Myocardial Infarction in Cervical Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Chen-Hsi; Chiou, Wen-Yen; Lee, Ching-Chih; Lee, Moon-Sing; Lin, Hon-Yi; Su, Yu-Chieh; Hung, Shih-Kai

2013-01-01

Background Radiotherapy (RT) or concurrent chemoradiation therapy has been suggested to increase the risk of coronary heart disease for cervical cancer patients, but the results of studies have been inconsistent. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the factors which influence the risk of developing myocardial infarction (MI) in cervical cancer patients with a large, nationwide cohort. Methods The study analyzed data from the 1996 to 2010 National Health Insurance Research Database provided by the National Health Research Institutes in Taiwan. The assessed number of patients with cervical cancer with radiotherapy only, surgery with bilateral oophorectomy only, and with appendectomy were 308, 323 and 229, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model were used to assess the risk of myocardial infarction. Results The adjusted hazard ratio for cervical cancer in patients with MI was 1.97 (95% CI, 0.97 - 3.91; P = 0.05) for the group that received RT alone, and 2.13 (95% CI, 1.11 - 3.75; P = 0.01) for the surgery group when compared with controls. The more risk comorbidities they have, the higher the risk of myocardial infarction would be for the patients. Conclusion The incidence of MI was significantly higher among cervical cancer patients with RT alone or surgery with bilateral oophorectomy alone than among general populations. RT might be as a factor to increase risk as bilateral oophorectomy. Whether RT itself triggers menopause or impairs the ovarian hormone production that increases the risk of MI needs to be further investigated. PMID:24171059

Perinatal Pitocin as an Early ADHD Biomarker: Neurodevelopmental Risk?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kurth, Lisa; Haussmann, Robert

2011-01-01

Objective: To investigate a potential relationship between coincidental increases in perinatal Pitocin usage and subsequent childhood ADHD onset in an attempt to isolate a specific risk factor as an early biomarker of this neurodevelopmental disorder. Method: Maternal labor/delivery and corresponding childbirth records of 172 regionally diverse,…

Risk Factors Associated with Overweight and Obesity in College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Desai, Melissa N.; Miller, William C.; Staples, Betty; Bravender, Terrill

2008-01-01

College obesity is increasing, but to the authors' knowledge, no researchers to date have evaluated risk factors in this population. Objective: The authors assessed whether abnormal eating perceptions and behaviors were associated with overweight in college students. Participants and Methods: A sample of undergraduates (N = 4,201) completed an…

Rural Residence and Hispanic Ethnicity: Doubly Disadvantaged for Diabetes?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koopman, Richelle J.; Mainous, Arch G.; Geesey, Mark E.

2006-01-01

Context: Hispanics are at increased risk for diabetes, while rural residents have historically had decreased access to care. Purpose: To determine whether living in a rural area and being Hispanic confers special risks for diagnosis and control of diabetes. Methods: We analyzed the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey…

The use of mobile phone apps by Australian gay and bisexual men to meet sex partners: an analysis of sex-seeking repertoires and risks for HIV and STIs using behavioural surveillance data.

PubMed

Hull, Peter; Mao, Limin; Prestage, Garrett; Zablotska, Iryna; de Wit, John; Holt, Martin

2016-04-19

Mobile phone apps are now the most popular method that Australian gay men use to find sex partners. Partner-seeking mobile phone apps use location functions to identify like-minded men and display their proximity. This study examines whether meeting partners via mobile apps is associated with a greater risk of HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) than with other ways of meeting partners. Data were analysed from the Gay Community Periodic Surveys, community-based, cross-sectional surveys conducted in Australian state capital cities between 2010 and 2014. χ 2 tests and multinomial logistic regression were used to analyse differences in risk profiles of men who used different methods to meet partners. Data were analysed from 36 428 men who participated in the Gay Community Periodic Surveys between 2010 and 2014. In 2014, 4116 men reported meeting sex partners with the use of mobile apps, increasing from 23.9% in 2011 to 42.5% in 2014. Men who used a combination of online and offline methods reported a greater number of sex partners and were more likely to report a recent STI than men who used online methods only or offline methods only. There has been a steep increase in the use of mobile phone apps by gay men in Australia to meet male partners. However, men who use a combination of mobile phone apps, internet websites and offline places to meet partners appear to be at increased risk of STIs or HIV compared with men who use a narrower range of online and offline methods. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Serum Insulin, Glucose, Indices of Insulin Resistance, and Risk of Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Argirion, Ilona; Weinstein, Stephanie J; Männistö, Satu; Albanes, Demetrius; Mondul, Alison M

2017-10-01

Background: Although insulin may increase the risk of some cancers, few studies have examined fasting serum insulin and lung cancer risk. Methods: We examined serum insulin, glucose, and indices of insulin resistance [insulin:glucose molar ratio and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)] and lung cancer risk using a case-cohort study within the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study of Finnish men. A total of 196 cases and 395 subcohort members were included. Insulin and glucose were measured in fasting serum collected 5 to 12 years before diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to estimate the relative risk of lung cancer. Results: The average time between blood collection and lung cancer was 9.6 years. Fasting serum insulin levels were 8.7% higher in subcohort members than cases. After multivariable adjustment, men in the fourth quartile of insulin had a significantly higher risk of lung cancer than those in the first quartile [HR = 2.10; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12-3.94]. A similar relationship was seen with HOMA-IR (HR = 1.83; 95% CI, 0.99-3.38). Risk was not strongly associated with glucose or the insulin:glucose molar ratio ( P trend = 0.55 and P trend = 0.27, respectively). Conclusions: Higher fasting serum insulin concentrations, as well as the presence of insulin resistance, appear to be associated with an elevated risk of lung cancer development. Impact: Although insulin is hypothesized to increase risk of some cancers, insulin and lung cancer remain understudied. Higher insulin levels and insulin resistance were associated with increased lung cancer risk. Although smoking cessation is the best method of lung cancer prevention, other lifestyle changes that affect insulin concentrations and sensitivity may reduce lung cancer risk. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(10); 1519-24. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

The utility of FRAX® in predicting bone fractures in patients with chronic kidney disease on hemodialysis: a two-year prospective multicenter cohort study.

PubMed

Przedlacki, J; Buczyńska-Chyl, J; Koźmiński, P; Niemczyk, E; Wojtaszek, E; Gieglis, E; Żebrowski, P; Podgórzak, A; Wściślak, J; Wieliczko, M; Matuszkiewicz-Rowińska, J

2018-05-01

We assessed the FRAX® method in 718 hemodialyzed patients in estimating increased risk of bone major and hip fractures. Over two prospective years, statistical analysis showed that FRAX® enables a better assessment of bone major fracture risk in these patients than any of its components and other risk factors considered in the analysis. Despite the generally increased risk of bone fractures among patients with end-stage renal disease, no prediction models for identifying individuals at particular risk have been developed to date. The goal of this prospective, multicenter observational study was to assess the usefulness of the FRAX® method in comparison to all its elements considered separately, selected factors associated with renal disease and the history of falls, in estimating increased risk of low-energy major bone and hip fractures in patients undergoing chronic hemodialysis. The study included a total of 1068 hemodialysis patients, who were followed for 2 years, and finally, 718 of them were analyzed. The risk analysis included the Polish version of the FRAX® calculator (without bone mineral density), dialysis vintage, mineral metabolism disorders (serum calcium, phosphate, and parathyroid hormone), and the number of falls during the last year before the study. Over 2 years, low-energy 30 major bone fractures were diagnosed and 13 of hip fractures among them. Area under the curve for FRAX® was 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.84) for major fractures and 0.70 (95% CI 0.563-0.832) for hip fractures. The AUC for major bone fractures was significantly higher than for all elements of the FRAX® calculator. In logistic regression analysis FRAX® was the strongest independent risk factor of assessment of the major bone fracture risk. FRAX® enables a better assessment of major bone fracture risk in ESRD patients undergoing hemodialysis than any of its components and other risk factors considered in the analysis.

Extreme umbilical cord lengths, cord knot and entanglement: Risk factors and risk of adverse outcomes, a population-based study

PubMed Central

Kessler, Jörg

2018-01-01

Objectives To determine risk factors for short and long umbilical cord, entanglement and knot. Explore their associated risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcome, including risk of recurrence in a subsequent pregnancy. To provide population based gestational age and sex and parity specific reference ranges for cord length. Design Population based registry study. Setting Medical Birth Registry of Norway 1999–2013. Population All singleton births (gestational age>22weeks<45 weeks) (n = 856 300). Methods Descriptive statistics and odds ratios of risk factors for extreme cord length and adverse outcomes based on logistic regression adjusted for confounders. Main outcome measures Short or long cord (<10th or >90th percentile), cord knot and entanglement, adverse pregnancy outcomes including perinatal and intrauterine death. Results Increasing parity, maternal height and body mass index, and diabetes were associated with increased risk of a long cord. Large placental and birth weight, and fetal male sex were factors for a long cord, which again was associated with a doubled risk of intrauterine and perinatal death, and increased risk of adverse neonatal outcome. Anomalous cord insertion, female sex, and a small placenta were associated with a short cord, which was associated with increased risk of fetal malformations, placental complications, caesarean delivery, non-cephalic presentation, perinatal and intrauterine death. At term, cord knot was associated with a quadrupled risk of perinatal death. The combination of a cord knot and entanglement had a more than additive effect to the association to perinatal death. There was a more than doubled risk of recurrence of a long or short cord, knot and entanglement in a subsequent pregnancy of the same woman. Conclusion Cord length is influenced both by maternal and fetal factors, and there is increased risk of recurrence. Extreme cord length, entanglement and cord knot are associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes including perinatal death. We provide population based reference ranges for umbilical cord length. PMID:29584790

Chickenpox and risk of stroke: a self-controlled case series analysis.

PubMed

Thomas, Sara L; Minassian, Caroline; Ganesan, Vijeya; Langan, Sinéad M; Smeeth, Liam

2014-01-01

There is good evidence that respiratory and other infections that cause systemic inflammation can trigger strokes; however, the role of specific infections is unclear. Case reports have highlighted chickenpox as a possible risk factor for arterial ischemic stroke, particularly in children, but rigorous studies are needed to determine and quantify any increased risk. We used anonymized electronic health records totaling >100 million person-years of observation from 4 UK primary care databases to identify individuals who had documented clinical chickenpox and a stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Self-controlled case series methods were used to quantify any increased risk of first stroke or TIA in the 0-6 and 7-12 months following chickenpox compared to other observed time periods. We analyzed data within each database, and performed meta-analyses to obtain summary age-adjusted incidence ratios (IRs) separately for adults and children. Five hundred sixty eligible individuals (including 60 children) were identified who experienced chickenpox and a stroke or TIA during follow-up. Among children, there was a 4-fold increased risk of stroke in the 0-6 months after chickenpox (summary IR = 4.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.96-8.45; I(2) = 0%). Among adults, there was a less marked increased risk with moderate between-database heterogeneity (random-effects summary IR = 2.13; 95% CI, 1.05-4.36; I(2) = 51%). There was no significant increased risk of stroke in the 7-12 months after chickenpox in children or adults, nor was there evidence of increased risk of TIA in either time period. Our study provides new evidence that children who experience chickenpox are at increased risk of stroke in the subsequent 6 months.

Family planning in the teen population.

PubMed

Hillard, P J

1993-12-01

As an increasing percentage of adolescents reach their sexual debut at younger ages, effective contraceptive methods, which will decrease the risks of unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), become even more critical. Contraceptive methods which are less 'compliance-dependent', such as the implantable subdermal levonorgestrel and the injectable depot formulation of medroxyprogesterone acetate, are popular in adolescents but careful counseling before method selection and on-going counseling when side-effects are experienced are necessary and essential. The use of condoms to decrease the risks of STDs will continue to be important for adolescents, and it remains to be seen what impact the long-term methods will have on effective condom use. Adolescents' access to abortions when contraceptive methods fail, or when no method is used, is being challenged with state laws which mandate parental notification or permission. A greater knowledge about the option of emergency contraception could potentially lead to increased use of this method, particularly when the option of medications such as RU486 becomes available. The potential for a reduction in unintended pregnancies in adolescents, and a reduced need for abortions is a welcome prospect.

Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Evans, K. M.; Evett, S.

2016-12-01

Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation or flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. Previous research and modeling for flood control reservoirs has shown that FIRO can reduce flood risk and increase water supply for many reservoirs. The risk-based method of FIRO presents a unique approach that incorporates flow forecasts made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) to model and assess risk of meeting or exceeding identified management targets or thresholds. Forecasted risk is evaluated against set risk tolerances to set reservoir flood releases. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 116,500 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United State Army Corps of Engineers and is operated by the Sonoma County Water Agency for water supply. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has been plagued with water supply reliability issues since 2007. FIRO is applied to Lake Mendocino by simulating daily hydrologic conditions from 1985 to 2010 in the Upper Russian River from Lake Mendocino to the City of Healdsburg approximately 50 miles downstream. The risk-based method is simulated using a 15-day, 61 member streamflow hindcast by the CNRFC. Model simulation results of risk-based flood operations demonstrate a 23% increase in average end of water year (September 30) storage levels over current operations. Model results show no increase in occurrence of flood damages for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. This investigation demonstrates that FIRO may be a viable flood control operations approach for Lake Mendocino and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.

Assessment of the environmental microbiological cross contamination following hand drying with paper hand towels or an air blade dryer.

PubMed

Margas, E; Maguire, E; Berland, C R; Welander, F; Holah, J T

2013-08-01

This study compared the potential for cross contamination of the surrounding environment resulting from two different hand-drying methods: paper towels and the use of an air blade dryer. One hundred volunteers for each method washed their hands and dried them using one of the two methods. Bacterial contamination of the surrounding environment was measured using settle plates placed on the floor in a grid pattern, air sampling and surface swabs. Both drying methods produced ballistic droplets in the immediate vicinity of the hand-drying process. The air blade dryer produced a larger number of droplets which were dispersed over a larger area. Settle plates showed increased microbial contamination in the grid squares which were affected by ballistic droplets. Using the settle plates counts, it was estimated that approx. 1.7 × 10(5) cfu more micro-organisms were left on the laboratory floor (total area approx. 17.15 m(2)) after 100 volunteers used an air blade dryer compared to when paper towels were used. The two drying methods led to different patterns of ballistic droplets and levels of microbial contamination under heavy use conditions. Whilst the increase in microbial levels in the environment is not significant if only nonpathogenic micro-organisms are spread, it may increase the risk of pathogen contamination of the environment when pathogens are occasionally present on people's hands. The study suggests that the risk of cross contamination from the washroom users to the environment and subsequent users should be considered when choosing a hand-drying method. The data could potentially give guidance following the selection of drying methods on implementing measures to minimise the risk of cross contamination. © 2013 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

A Framework for Widespread Replication of a Highly Spatially Resolved Childhood Lead Exposure Risk Model

PubMed Central

Kim, Dohyeong; Galeano, M. Alicia Overstreet; Hull, Andrew; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2008-01-01

Background Preventive approaches to childhood lead poisoning are critical for addressing this longstanding environmental health concern. Moreover, increasing evidence of cognitive effects of blood lead levels < 10 μg/dL highlights the need for improved exposure prevention interventions. Objectives Geographic information system–based childhood lead exposure risk models, especially if executed at highly resolved spatial scales, can help identify children most at risk of lead exposure, as well as prioritize and direct housing and health-protective intervention programs. However, developing highly resolved spatial data requires labor-and time-intensive geocoding and analytical processes. In this study we evaluated the benefit of increased effort spent geocoding in terms of improved performance of lead exposure risk models. Methods We constructed three childhood lead exposure risk models based on established methods but using different levels of geocoded data from blood lead surveillance, county tax assessors, and the 2000 U.S. Census for 18 counties in North Carolina. We used the results to predict lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit. Results The models performed well enough to identify high-risk areas for targeted intervention, even with a relatively low level of effort on geocoding. Conclusions This study demonstrates the feasibility of widespread replication of highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk models. The models guide resource-constrained local health and housing departments and community-based organizations on how best to expend their efforts in preventing and mitigating lead exposure risk in their communities. PMID:19079729

Methodology for Developing a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model of Spacecraft Rendezvous and Dockings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farnham, Steven J., II; Garza, Joel, Jr.; Castillo, Theresa M.; Lutomski, Michael

2011-01-01

In 2007 NASA was preparing to send two new visiting vehicles carrying logistics and propellant to the International Space Station (ISS). These new vehicles were the European Space Agency s (ESA) Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), the Jules Verne, and the Japanese Aerospace and Explorations Agency s (JAXA) H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV). The ISS Program wanted to quantify the increased risk to the ISS from these visiting vehicles. At the time, only the Shuttle, the Soyuz, and the Progress vehicles rendezvoused and docked to the ISS. The increased risk to the ISS was from an increase in vehicle traffic, thereby, increasing the potential catastrophic collision during the rendezvous and the docking or berthing of the spacecraft to the ISS. A universal method of evaluating the risk of rendezvous and docking or berthing was created by the ISS s Risk Team to accommodate the increasing number of rendezvous and docking or berthing operations due to the increasing number of different spacecraft, as well as the future arrival of commercial spacecraft. Before the first docking attempt of ESA's ATV and JAXA's HTV to the ISS, a probabilistic risk model was developed to quantitatively calculate the risk of collision of each spacecraft with the ISS. The 5 rendezvous and docking risk models (Soyuz, Progress, Shuttle, ATV, and HTV) have been used to build and refine the modeling methodology for rendezvous and docking of spacecrafts. This risk modeling methodology will be NASA s basis for evaluating the addition of future ISS visiting spacecrafts hazards, including SpaceX s Dragon, Orbital Science s Cygnus, and NASA s own Orion spacecraft. This paper will describe the methodology used for developing a visiting vehicle risk model.

Health Risk Behavior in Foster Youth

PubMed Central

Gramkowski, Bridget; Kools, Susan; Paul, Steven; Boyer, Cherrie; Monasterio, Erica; Robbins, Nancy

2010-01-01

Problem Adolescent health problems are predominantly caused by risk behavior. Foster adolescents have disproportionately poor health; therefore identification of risk behavior is critical. Method A secondary analysis of data from a larger study investigated the health risk behavior of 56 foster youth using the CHIP-AE. Findings Foster youth had some increased risk behavior. Younger adolescents and those in kinship care had less risky behavior. Youth had more risk behavior when: in group homes, parental death, histories of physical or emotional abuse, or history of attempted suicide. Conclusions These results point to areas of strength and vulnerability in foster youth. PMID:19490278

Existence of circulating anti-endothelial cell antibodies after heart transplantation is associated with post-transplant acute allograft rejection.

PubMed

Lehle, Karla; Kroher, Johannes; Kolat, Philipp; von Süßkind-Schwendi, Marietta; Schmid, Christof; Haneya, Assad; Rupprecht, Leopold; Hirt, Stephan

2016-05-01

Anti-endothelial cell antibodies (AECA) may be involved in the development of heart allograft rejection. Its detection might be a cheap and noninvasive method to identify high-risk patients. An indirect immunofluorescence method on human umbilical vein endothelial cells was used to investigate the presence of AECAs in 260 pre- and post-transplant serum samples sequentially collected from 34 patients within the first year after heart transplantation (HTX). The presence of AECAs before (23.5 %) and early after HTX (14.7 %) was associated with a significantly increased risk of early acute rejection (75 and 60 %, respectively) compared to 33 % in AECA-negative patients (p = 0.049). Moreover, rejections from AECA-positive patients were more severe (p = 0.057) with a significantly increased incidence of multiple (p = 0.025). The mean number of the sum of rejection episodes was significantly higher in AECA-positive patients (p ≤ 0.05). Patients free of AECAs mainly received mycophenolate mofetil as primary immunosuppression (p = 0.067). Nevertheless, the presence of AECAs did not affect long-term outcome and mortality of HTX patients. Despite a low number of patient samples, the detection of AECAs before and early after HTX could be used as a biomarker for an increased risk of early acute rejection in high-risk patients. This easy method might be a valuable tool to support screening procedures to improve individualized immunosuppressive therapy.

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Three-dimensional external beam radiotherapy for prostate cancer increases the risk of hip fracture.

PubMed

Elliott, Sean P; Jarosek, Stephanie L; Alanee, Shaheen R; Konety, Badrinath R; Dusenbery, Kathryn E; Virnig, Beth A

2011-10-01

Hip fracture is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Pelvic external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) is known to increase the risk of hip fractures in women, but the effect in men is unknown. From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database, 45,662 men who were aged ≥66 years and diagnosed with prostate cancer in 1992-2004 were identified. By using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards models, the primary outcome of hip fracture risk was compared among men who received radical prostatectomy (RP), EBRT, EBRT plus androgen suppression therapy (AST), or AST alone. Age, osteoporosis, race, and other comorbidities were statistically controlled. A secondary outcome was distal forearm fracture as an indicator of the risk of fall-related fracture outside the radiation field. After covariates were statistically controlled, the findings showed that EBRT increased the risk of hip fractures by 76% (hazards ratio [HR], 1.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-2.40) without increasing the risk of distal forearm fractures (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.56-1.14). Combination therapy with EBRT plus AST increased the risk of hip fracture 145% relative to RP alone (HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.88-3.19) and by 40% relative to EBRT alone (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.17-1.68). EBRT plus AST increased the risk of distal forearm fracture by 43% relative to RP alone (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 0.97-2.10). The number needed to treat to result in 1 hip fracture during a 10-year period was 51 patients (95% CI, 31-103). In men with prostate cancer, pelvic 3-D conformal EBRT was associated with a 76% increased risk of hip fracture. This risk was slightly increased further by the addition of short-course AST to EBRT. This risk associated with EBRT must be site-specific as there was no increase in the risk of fall-related fractures in bones that were outside the radiation field. Copyright © 2011 American Cancer Society.

Development and evaluation of an office ergonomic risk checklist: ROSA--rapid office strain assessment.

PubMed

Sonne, Michael; Villalta, Dino L; Andrews, David M

2012-01-01

The Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA) was designed to quickly quantify risks associated with computer work and to establish an action level for change based on reports of worker discomfort. Computer use risk factors were identified in previous research and standards on office design for the chair, monitor, telephone, keyboard and mouse. The risk factors were diagrammed and coded as increasing scores from 1 to 3. ROSA final scores ranged in magnitude from 1 to 10, with each successive score representing an increased presence of risk factors. Total body discomfort and ROSA final scores for 72 office workstations were significantly correlated (R = 0.384). ROSA final scores exhibited high inter- and intra-observer reliability (ICCs of 0.88 and 0.91, respectively). Mean discomfort increased with increasing ROSA scores, with a significant difference occurring between scores of 3 and 5 (out of 10). A ROSA final score of 5 might therefore be useful as an action level indicating when immediate change is necessary. ROSA proved to be an effective and reliable method for identifying computer use risk factors related to discomfort. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Disease risk score as a confounder summary method: systematic review and recommendations.

PubMed

Tadrous, Mina; Gagne, Joshua J; Stürmer, Til; Cadarette, Suzanne M

2013-02-01

To systematically examine trends and applications of the disease risk score (DRS) as a confounder summary method. We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science® to identify all English language articles that applied DRS methods. We tabulated the number of publications by year and type (empirical application, methodological contribution, or review paper) and summarized methods used in empirical applications overall and by publication year (<2000, ≥2000). Of 714 unique articles identified, 97 examined DRS methods and 86 were empirical applications. We observed a bimodal distribution in the number of publications over time, with a peak 1979-1980, and resurgence since 2000. The majority of applications with methodological detail derived DRS using logistic regression (47%), used DRS as a categorical variable in regression (93%), and applied DRS in a non-experimental cohort (47%) or case-control (42%) study. Few studies examined effect modification by outcome risk (23%). Use of DRS methods has increased yet remains low. Comparative effectiveness research may benefit from more DRS applications, particularly to examine effect modification by outcome risk. Standardized terminology may facilitate identification, application, and comprehension of DRS methods. More research is needed to support the application of DRS methods, particularly in case-control studies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Targeted use of heparin, heparinoids, or low-molecular-weight heparin to improve outcome after acute ischaemic stroke: an individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

PubMed Central

Whiteley, William N; Adams, Harold P; Bath, Philip MW; Berge, Eivind; Sandset, Per Morten; Dennis, Martin; Murray, Gordon D; Wong, Ka-Sing Lawrence; Sandercock, Peter AG

2013-01-01

Summary Background Many international guidelines on the prevention of venous thromboembolism recommend targeting heparin treatment at patients with stroke who have a high risk of venous thrombotic events or a low risk of haemorrhagic events. We sought to identify reliable methods to target anticoagulant treatment and so improve the chance of avoiding death or dependence after stroke. Methods We obtained individual patient data from the five largest randomised controlled trials in acute ischaemic stroke that compared heparins (unfractionated heparin, heparinoids, or low-molecular-weight heparin) with aspirin or placebo. We developed and evaluated statistical models for the prediction of thrombotic events (myocardial infarction, stroke, deep vein thrombosis, or pulmonary embolism) and haemorrhagic events (symptomatic intracranial or significant extracranial) in the first 14 days after stroke. We calculated the absolute risk difference for the outcome “dead or dependent” in patients grouped by quartiles of predicted risk of thrombotic and haemorrhagic events with random effect meta-analysis. Findings Patients with ischaemic stroke who were of advanced age, had increased neurological impairment, or had atrial fibrillation had a high risk of both thrombotic and haemorrhagic events after stroke. Additionally, patients with CT-visible evidence of recent cerebral ischaemia were at increased risk of thrombotic events. In evaluation datasets, the area under a receiver operating curve for prediction models for thrombotic events was 0·63 (95% CI 0·59–0·67) and for haemorrhagic events was 0·60 (0·55–0·64). We found no evidence that the net benefit from heparins increased with either increasing risk of thrombotic events or decreasing risk of haemorrhagic events. Interpretation There was no evidence that patients with ischaemic stroke who were at higher risk of thrombotic events or lower risk of haemorrhagic events benefited from heparins. We were therefore unable to define a targeted approach to select the patients who would benefit from treatment with early anticoagulant therapy. We recommend that guidelines for routine or selective use of heparin in stroke should be revised. Funding MRC. PMID:23642343

Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis Overestimates the Risk of Revision Arthroplasty: A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter D; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

2015-11-01

Although Kaplan-Meier survival analysis is commonly used to estimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint arthroplasty, it theoretically overestimates the risk of revision in the presence of competing risks (such as death). Because the magnitude of overestimation is not well documented, the potential associated impact on clinical and policy decision-making remains unknown. We performed a meta-analysis to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent does the Kaplan-Meier method overestimate the cumulative incidence of revision after joint replacement compared with alternative competing-risks methods? (2) Is the extent of overestimation influenced by followup time or rate of competing risks? We searched Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, and Web of Science (1946, 1980, 1980, and 1899, respectively, to October 26, 2013) and included article bibliographies for studies comparing estimated cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using both Kaplan-Meier and competing-risks methods. We excluded conference abstracts, unpublished studies, or studies using simulated data sets. Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated the quality of reporting of the included studies. Among 1160 abstracts identified, six studies were included in our meta-analysis. The principal reason for the steep attrition (1160 to six) was that the initial search was for studies in any clinical area that compared the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier versus competing-risks methods for any event (not just the cumulative incidence of hip or knee revision); we did this to minimize the likelihood of missing any relevant studies. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) comparing the cumulative incidence estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method with the competing-risks method for each study and used DerSimonian and Laird random effects models to pool these RRs. Heterogeneity was explored using stratified meta-analyses and metaregression. The pooled cumulative incidence of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty obtained using the Kaplan-Meier method was 1.55 times higher (95% confidence interval, 1.43-1.68; p < 0.001) than that obtained using the competing-risks method. Longer followup times and higher proportions of competing risks were not associated with increases in the amount of overestimation of revision risk by the Kaplan-Meier method (all p > 0.10). This may be due to the small number of studies that met the inclusion criteria and conservative variance approximation. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimates risk of revision after hip or knee arthroplasty in populations where competing risks (such as death) might preclude the occurrence of the event of interest (revision). Competing-risks methods should be used to more accurately estimate the cumulative incidence of revision when the goal is to plan healthcare services and resource allocation for revisions.

Trends and regional variations in provision of contraception methods in a commercially insured population in the United States based on nationally proposed measures.

PubMed

Law, A; Yu, J S; Wang, W; Lin, J; Lynen, R

2017-09-01

Three measures to assess the provision of effective contraception methods among reproductive-aged women have recently been endorsed for national public reporting. Based on these measures, this study examined real-world trends and regional variations of contraceptive provision in a commercially insured population in the United States. Women 15-44years old with continuous enrollment in each year from 2005 to 2014 were identified from a commercial claims database. In accordance with the proposed measures, percentages of women (a) provided most effective or moderately effective (MEME) methods of contraception and (b) provided a long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) method were calculated in two populations: women at risk for unintended pregnancy and women who had a live birth within 3 and 60days of delivery. During the 10-year period, the percentages of women at risk for unintended pregnancy provided MEME contraceptive methods increased among 15-20-year-olds (24.5%-35.9%) and 21-44-year-olds (26.2%-31.5%), and those provided a LARC method also increased among 15-20-year-olds (0.1%-2.4%) and 21-44-year-olds (0.8%-3.9%). Provision of LARC methods increased most in the North Central and West among both age groups of women. Provision of MEME contraceptives and LARC methods to women who had a live birth within 60days postpartum also increased across age groups and regions. This assessment indicates an overall trend of increasing provision of MEME contraceptive methods in the commercial sector, albeit with age group and regional variations. If implemented, these proposed measures may have impacts on health plan contraceptive access policy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Epidemiology of Cancer Among Police Officers

PubMed Central

Wirth, Michael; Vena, John E.; Smith, Emily K.; Bauer, Sarah E.; Violanti, John; Burch, James

2013-01-01

Background This review summarizes peer-reviewed studies examining cancer risks among police officers. It provides an overview of existing research limitations and uncertainties and the plausible etiologic risk factors associated with cancer in this understudied occupation. Methods Previous cancer studies among police officers were obtained via a systematic review of the MEDLINE, CABDirect, and Web of Science bibliographic databases. Results Quality observational studies of cancer among police officers are sparse and subject to limitations in exposure assessment and other methods. Results from three studies suggested possible increased mortality risks for all cancers, and cancers of the colon, kidney, digestive system, esophagus, male breast, and testis, as well as Hodgkin’s disease. Few incidence studies have been performed, and results have been mixed, although some associations with police work have been observed for thyroid, skin, and male breast cancer. Conclusions Police are exposed to a mix of known or suspected agents or activities that increase cancer risk. Epidemiologic evidence to date is sparse and inconsistent. There is a critical need for more research to understand the biological and social processes underlying exposures and the suggested disproportionate risks and to identify effective prevention strategies. PMID:23255299

Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk Estimates in 16-Slice Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography

PubMed Central

Einstein, Andrew J.; Sanz, Javier; Dellegrottaglie, Santo; Milite, Margherita; Sirol, Marc; Henzlova, Milena; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

2008-01-01

Background Recent advances have led to a rapid increase in the number of computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) studies performed. While several studies have reported effective dose (E), there is no data available on cancer risk for current CTCA protocols. Methods and Results E and organ doses were estimated, using scanner-derived parameters and Monte Carlo methods, for 50 patients having 16-slice CTCA performed for clinical indications. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were estimated with models developed in the National Academies’ Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. E of a complete CTCA averaged 9.5 mSv, while that of a complete study, including calcium scoring when indicated, averaged 11.7 mSv. Calcium scoring increased E by 25%, while tube current modulation reduced it by 34% and was more effective at lower heart rates. Organ doses were highest to the lungs and female breast. LAR of cancer incidence from CTCA averaged approximately 1 in 1600, but varied widely between patients, being highest in younger women. For all patients, the greatest risk was from lung cancer. Conclusions CTCA is associated with non-negligible risk of malignancy. Doses can be reduced by careful attention to scanning protocol. PMID:18371595

Preconception and early pregnancy air pollution exposures and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robledo, Candace A.; Mendola, Pauline, E-mail: pauline.mendola@mail.nih.gov; Yeung, Edwina

Background: Air pollution has been linked to gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) but no studies have evaluated impact of preconception and early pregnancy air pollution exposures on GDM risk. Methods: Electronic medical records provided data on 219,952 singleton deliveries to mothers with (n=11,334) and without GDM (n=208,618). Average maternal exposures to particulate matter (PM) ≤ 2.5 μm (PM{sub 2.5}) and PM{sub 2.5} constituents, PM ≤ 10 μm (PM{sub 10}), nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}), carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and ozone (O{sub 3}) were estimated for the 3-month preconception window, first trimester, and gestational weeks 1–24 based on modified Community Multiscalemore » Air Quality models for delivery hospital referral regions. Binary regression models with robust standard errors estimated relative risks (RR) for GDM per interquartile range (IQR) increase in pollutant concentrations adjusted for study site, maternal age and race/ethnicity. Results: Preconception maternal exposure to NO{sub X} (RR=1.09, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.13) and SO{sub 2} (RR=1.05, 1.01, 1.09) were associated with increased risk of subsequent GDM and risk estimates remained elevated for first trimester exposure. Preconception O{sub 3} was associated with lower risk of subsequent GDM (RR=0.93, 0.90, 0.96) but risks increased later in pregnancy. Conclusion: Maternal exposures to NO{sub x} and SO{sub 2} preconception and during the first few weeks of pregnancy were associated with increased GDM risk. O{sub 3} appeared to increase GDM risk in association with mid-pregnancy exposure but not in earlier time windows. These common exposures merit further investigation. - Highlights: • Air pollution may be related to gestational diabetes (GDM). • No prior studies have examined preconception exposure. • Maternal exposure to NO{sub x} and SO{sub 2} before conception increased subsequent GDM risk. • NO{sub x} and SO{sub 2} exposure in the first seven weeks of pregnancy also increased GDM risk. • Early exposure to O{sub 3} reduced GDM risk but risk increased after 15 weeks gestation.« less

High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study: a population-based prospective study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. Methods A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. Results During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. Conclusions These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method. PMID:24666820

The Risk of Fractures Associated with Thiazolidinediones: A Self-controlled Case-Series Study

PubMed Central

Douglas, Ian J.; Evans, Stephen J.; Pocock, Stuart; Smeeth, Liam

2009-01-01

Background The results of clinical trials have suggested that the thiazolidinedione antidiabetic agents rosiglitazone and pioglitazone are associated with an increased risk of fractures, but such studies had limited power. The increased risk in these trials appeared to be limited to women and mainly involved fractures of the arm, wrist, hand, or foot: risk patterns that could not be readily explained. Our objective was to further investigate the risk of fracture associated with thiazolidinedione use. Methods and Findings The self-controlled case-series design was used to compare rates of fracture during thiazolidinedione exposed and unexposed periods and thus estimate within-person rate ratios. We used anonymised primary care data from the United Kingdom General Practice Research Database (GPRD). All patients aged 40 y or older with a recorded fracture and at least one prescription for a thiazolidinedione were included (n = 1,819). We found a within-person rate ratio of 1.43 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25–1.62) for fracture at any site comparing exposed with unexposed periods among patients prescribed any thiazolidinedione. This association was similar in men and women and in patients treated with either rosiglitazone or pioglitazone. The increased risk was also evident at a range of fracture sites, including hip, spine, arm, foot, wrist, or hand. The risk increased with increasing duration of thiazolidinedione exposure: rate ratio 2.00 (95% CI 1.48–2.70) for 4 y or more of exposure. Conclusion Within individuals who experience a fracture, fracture risk is increased during periods of exposure to thiazolidinediones (both rosiglitazone and pioglitazone) compared with unexposed periods. The increased risk is observed in both men and women and at a range of fracture sites. The risk also increases with longer duration of use. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:19787025

High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian women and cancer study: a population-based prospective study.

PubMed

Gavrilyuk, Oxana; Braaten, Tonje; Skeie, Guri; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Dumeaux, Vanessa; Lund, Eiliv

2014-03-25

Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method.

Resiliency of the Nation's Power Grid: Assessing Risks of Premature Failure of Large Power Transformers Under Climate Warming and Increased Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Morgan, E.

2017-12-01

The aging pieces of our nation's power grid - the largest machine ever built - are at a critical time. Key assets in the transmission system, including large power transformers (LPTs), are approaching their originally designed lifetimes. Moreover, extreme weather and climate events upon which these design lifetimes are partially based are expected to change. In particular, more frequent and intense heat waves can accelerate the degradation of LPTs' insulation/cooling system. Thus, there are likely thousands of LPTs across the United States under increasing risk of premature failure - yet this risk has not been assessed. In this study, we investigate the impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in heat waves for critical LPTs located in the Northeast corridor of the United States to assess: To what extent do changes in heat waves/events present a rising threat to the transformer network over the Northeast U.S. and to what extent can climate mitigation reduce this risk? This study focuses on a collection of LPTs with a high degree of "betweenness" - while recognizing other factors such as: connectivity, voltage rating, MVA rating, approximate price, weight, location/proximity to major transportation routes, and age. To assess the risk of future change in heat wave occurrence we use an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of heat waves based on associated large-scale atmospheric conditions. This method is compared to the more conventional approach that uses model-simulated daily maximum temperature. Under future climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both methods indicate strong increases in heat wave frequency during the latter half of this century. Under weak climate mitigation - the risks imposed from heat wave occurrence could quadruple, but a modest mitigation scenario cuts the increasing threat in half. As important, the analogue method substantially improves the model consensus through reduction of the interquartile range by a factor of three. The improved inter-model consensus is viewed as a promising step toward providing more actionable climate information. Ultimately - this technique could be applied to the entirety of the U.S. power grid as well as other weather extrema (e.g. precipitation, ice, and wind) as well as assess current and future topologies of any electricity system.

Sexual Orientation and Suicide Ideation, Plans, Attempts, and Medically Serious Attempts: Evidence From Local Youth Risk Behavior Surveys, 2001–2009

PubMed Central

Stone, Deborah M.; Ouyang, Lijing; Lippy, Caroline; Hertz, Marci F.; Crosby, Alex E.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We examined the associations between 2 measures of sexual orientation and 4 suicide risk outcomes (SROs) from pooled local Youth Risk Behavior Surveys. Methods. We aggregated data from 5 local Youth Risk Behavior Surveys from 2001 to 2009. We defined sexual minority youths (SMYs) by sexual identity (lesbian, gay, bisexual) and sex of sexual contacts (same- or both-sex contacts). Survey logistic regression analyses controlled for a wide range of suicide risk factors and sample design effects. Results. Compared with non-SMYs, all SMYs had increased odds of suicide ideation; bisexual youths, gay males, and both-sex contact females had greater odds of suicide planning; all SMYs, except same-sex contact males, had increased odds of suicide attempts; and lesbians, bisexuals, and both-sex contact youths had increased odds of medically serious attempts. Unsure males had increased odds of suicide ideation compared with heterosexual males. Not having sexual contact was protective of most SROs among females and of medically serious attempts among males. Conclusions. Regardless of sexual orientation measure used, most SMY subgroups had increased odds of all SROs. However, many factors are associated with SROs. PMID:24328658

Venous thromboembolism: patient awareness and education in the pre-operative assessment clinic.

PubMed

Haymes, Adam

2016-04-01

Each year venous thromboembolism (VTE) causes up to 60,000 deaths in the UK, many resulting from hospital-acquired thromboses following elective surgery. National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines state that all elective surgical patients should receive verbal and written information pre-operatively regarding the risks of developing VTE. This audit assessed elective surgical patient's prior awareness of VTE and examined how effective targeted patient education during the pre-operative assessment is in increasing this awareness. A 13 point questionnaire designed to assess a pre-operative patient's understanding of topics relating to VTE was provided to consecutive patients identified as being at risk of developing VTE at the end of their pre-operative assessment over a two-week period. A total of 68 questionnaires were completed. Provision of verbal and written information was poor (47 %, n = 32 and 47 %, n = 32 respectively). Despite this, 71 % (n = 48) of patients were aware of the consequences of developing VTE. Many patients correctly identified surgery (71 %, n = 48), immobility (71 %, n = 48) and being overweight (68 %, n = 46) as risk factors, but not dehydration (47 %, n = 32). Lack of awareness regarding personal methods to reduce the risk of developing a VTE post-operatively (24 %, n = 16) and potential side-effects of medical prophylaxis (32 %, n = 22) were also identified. Many patients already possess an awareness of VTE, however, specific knowledge regarding its risk factors and methods of prevention is lacking. Provision of targeted written and verbal educational information during the pre-operative assessment is an effective method of increasing a patient's awareness of these topics. Increased patient awareness may empower patients in their post-operative recovery and enable them to make more informed decisions regarding VTE prophylaxis options.

Using Rapid Indicators for Enterococcus to Assess the Risk of Illness after Exposure to Urban Runoff Contaminated Marine Water

PubMed Central

Colford, John M.; Schiff, Kenneth C.; Griffith, John F.; Yau, Vince; Arnold, Benjamin F.; Wright, Catherine C.; Gruber, Joshua S.; Wade, Timothy J.; Burns, Susan; Hayes, Jacqueline; McGee, Charles; Gold, Mark; Cao, Yiping; Noble, Rachel T.; Haugland, Richard; Weisberg, Stephen B.

2012-01-01

Background Traditional fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) measurement is too slow (>18 hr) for timely swimmer warnings. Objectives Assess relationship of rapid indicator methods (qPCR) to illness at a marine-beach impacted by urban-runoff. Methods We measured baseline and two-week health in 9525 individuals visiting Doheny Beach 2007-08. Illness rates were compared (swimmers vs. non-swimmers). FIB measured by traditional (Enterococcus spp. by EPA Method 1600 or Enterolert™, fecal coliforms, total coliforms) and three rapid qPCR assays for Enterococcus spp. (Taqman, Scorpion-1, Scorpion-2) were compared to health. Primary bacterial source was a creek flowing untreated into ocean; the creek did not reach the ocean when a sand berm formed. This provided a natural experiment for examining FIB-health relationships under varying conditions. Results We observed significant increases in diarrhea (OR1.90, 95% CI 1.29-2.80 for swallowing water) and other outcomes in swimmers compared to non-swimmers. Exposure (body immersion, head immersion, swallowed water) was associated with increasing risk of gastrointestinal illness (GI). Daily GI incidence patterns were different: swimmers (2-day peak ) and non-swimmers (no peak). With berm-open, we observed associations between GI and traditional and rapid methods for Enterococcus; fewer associations occurred when berm status was not considered. Conclusions We found increased risk of GI at this urban-runoff beach. When FIB source flowed freely (berm-open), several traditional and rapid indicators were related to illness. When FIB source was weak (berm-closed) fewer illness-associations were seen. These different relationships under different conditions at a single beach demonstrate the difficulties using these indicators to predict health risk. PMID:22356828

Spatial analysis of gastroschisis in Massachusetts and Texas

PubMed Central

Yazdy, Mahsa M.; Werler, Martha M.; Anderka, Marlene; Langlois, Peter H.; Vieira, Veronica M.

2014-01-01

Purpose Previous research has suggested gastroschisis, a congenital malformation, may be linked to environmental or infectious factors and cases can occur in clusters. The objective of this study was to identify geographic areas of elevated gastroschisis risk. Methods Cases of gastroschisis were identified from birth defect registries in Massachusetts and Texas. Random samples of live births were selected as controls. Generalized additive models were used to create a continuous map surface of odds ratios (OR) by smoothing over latitude and longitude. Maternal age, race/ethnicity, education, cigarette smoking, and insurance status (MA only) were assessed for confounding. We used permutation tests to identify statistically significant areas of increased risk. Results An area of increased risk was identified in north-central Massachusetts, but was not significant after adjustment (p-value=0.07; OR=2.0). In Texas, two statistically significant areas of increased risk were identified after adjustment (p-value=0.02; OR=1.3 and 1.2). Texas had sufficient data to assess the combination of space and time, which identified an increased risk in 2003 and 2004. Conclusion This study suggests there were areas of elevated gastroschisis risk in Massachusetts and Texas that cannot be explained by the risk factors we assessed. Additional exploration of underlying artifactual, environmental, infectious, or behavioral factors may further our understanding of gastroschisis. PMID:25454289

Salmonella and eggs: from production to plate.

PubMed

Whiley, Harriet; Ross, Kirstin

2015-02-26

Salmonella contamination of eggs and egg shells has been identified as a public health concern worldwide. A recent shift in consumer preferences has impacted on the egg industry, with a push for cage-free egg production methods. There has also been an increased desire from consumers for raw and unprocessed foods, potentially increasing the risk of salmonellosis. In response to these changes, this review explores the current literature regarding Salmonella contamination of eggs during the production processing through to food handling protocols. The contamination of eggs with Salmonella during the production process is a complex issue, influenced by many variables including flock size, flock age, stress, feed, vaccination, and cleaning routines. Currently there is no consensus regarding the impact of caged, barn and free range egg production has on Salmonella contamination of eggs. The literature regarding the management and control strategies post-collection, during storage, transport and food handling is also reviewed. Pasteurisation and irradiation were identified as the only certain methods for controlling Salmonella and are essential for the protection of high risk groups, whereas control of temperature and pH were identified as potential control methods to minimise the risk for foods containing raw eggs; however, further research is required to provide more detailed control protocols and education programs to reduce the risk of salmonellosis from egg consumption.

Salmonella and Eggs: From Production to Plate

PubMed Central

Whiley, Harriet; Ross, Kirstin

2015-01-01

Salmonella contamination of eggs and egg shells has been identified as a public health concern worldwide. A recent shift in consumer preferences has impacted on the egg industry, with a push for cage-free egg production methods. There has also been an increased desire from consumers for raw and unprocessed foods, potentially increasing the risk of salmonellosis. In response to these changes, this review explores the current literature regarding Salmonella contamination of eggs during the production processing through to food handling protocols. The contamination of eggs with Salmonella during the production process is a complex issue, influenced by many variables including flock size, flock age, stress, feed, vaccination, and cleaning routines. Currently there is no consensus regarding the impact of caged, barn and free range egg production has on Salmonella contamination of eggs. The literature regarding the management and control strategies post-collection, during storage, transport and food handling is also reviewed. Pasteurisation and irradiation were identified as the only certain methods for controlling Salmonella and are essential for the protection of high risk groups, whereas control of temperature and pH were identified as potential control methods to minimise the risk for foods containing raw eggs; however, further research is required to provide more detailed control protocols and education programs to reduce the risk of salmonellosis from egg consumption. PMID:25730295

The development of a 3D risk analysis method.

PubMed

I, Yet-Pole; Cheng, Te-Lung

2008-05-01

Much attention has been paid to the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) research in recent years due to more and more severe disasters that have happened in the process industries. Owing to its calculation complexity, very few software, such as SAFETI, can really make the risk presentation meet the practice requirements. However, the traditional risk presentation method, like the individual risk contour in SAFETI, is mainly based on the consequence analysis results of dispersion modeling, which usually assumes that the vapor cloud disperses over a constant ground roughness on a flat terrain with no obstructions and concentration fluctuations, which is quite different from the real situations of a chemical process plant. All these models usually over-predict the hazardous regions in order to maintain their conservativeness, which also increases the uncertainty of the simulation results. On the other hand, a more rigorous model such as the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model can resolve the previous limitations; however, it cannot resolve the complexity of risk calculations. In this research, a conceptual three-dimensional (3D) risk calculation method was proposed via the combination of results of a series of CFD simulations with some post-processing procedures to obtain the 3D individual risk iso-surfaces. It is believed that such technique will not only be limited to risk analysis at ground level, but also be extended into aerial, submarine, or space risk analyses in the near future.

Provision of a wildfire risk map: informing residents in the wildland urban interface.

PubMed

Mozumder, Pallab; Helton, Ryan; Berrens, Robert P

2009-11-01

Wildfires in the wildland urban interface (WUI) are an increasing concern throughout the western United States and elsewhere. WUI communities continue to grow and thus increase the wildfire risk to human lives and property. Information such as a wildfire risk map can inform WUI residents of potential risks and may help to efficiently sort mitigation efforts. This study uses the survey-based contingent valuation (CV) method to examine annual household willingness to pay (WTP) for the provision of a wildfire risk map. Data were collected through a mail survey of the East Mountain WUI area in the State of New Mexico (USA). The integrated empirical approach includes a system of equations that involves joint estimation of WTP values, along with measures of a respondent's risk perception and risk mitigation behavior. The median estimated WTP is around U.S. $12 for the annual wildfire risk map, which covers at least the costs of producing and distributing available risk information. Further, providing a wildfire risk map can help address policy goals emphasizing information gathering and sharing among stakeholders to mitigate the effects of wildfires.

CURRENT USE AND FUTURE NEEDS OF BIODOSIMETRY IN STUDIES OF LONG-TERM HEALTH RISK FOLLOWING RADIATION EXPOSURE

PubMed Central

Simon, Steven L.; Bouville, André; Kleinerman, Ruth

2009-01-01

Biodosimetry measurements can potentially be an important and integral part of the dosimetric methods used in long-term studies of health risk following radiation exposure. Such studies rely on accurate estimation of doses to the whole body or to specific organs of individuals in order to derive reliable estimates of cancer risk. However, dose estimates based on analytical dose reconstruction (i.e., models) or personnel monitoring measurements, e.g., film-badges, can have substantial uncertainty. Biodosimetry can potentially reduce uncertainty in health risk studies by corroboration of model-based dose estimates or by using them to assess bias in dose models. While biodosimetry has begun to play a more significant role in long-term health risk studies, its use is still generally limited in that context due to one or more factors including, inadequate limits of detection, large inter-individual variability of the signal measured, high per-sample cost, and invasiveness. Presently, the most suitable biodosimetry methods for epidemiologic studies are chromosome aberration frequencies from fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of peripheral blood lymphocytes and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) measurements made on tooth enamel. Both types of measurements, however, are usually invasive and require difficult to obtain biological samples. Moreover, doses derived from these methods are not always directly relevant to the tissues of interest. To increase the value of biodosimetry to epidemiologic studies, a number of issues need to be considered including limits of detection, effects of inhomogenous exposure of the body, how to extrapolate from the tissue sampled to the tissues of interest, and how to adjust dosimetry models applied to large populations based on sparse biodosimetry measurements. The requirements of health risk studies suggest a set of characteristics that, if satisfied by new biodosimetry methods, would increase the overall usefulness of biodosimetry to determining radiation health risks. PMID:20065672

Do Clinical Standards for Diabetes Care Address Excess Risk for Hypoglycemia in Vulnerable Patients? A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Berkowitz, Seth A; Aragon, Katherine; Hines, Jonas; Seligman, Hilary; Lee, Sei; Sarkar, Urmimala

2013-01-01

Objective To determine whether diabetes clinical standards consider increased hypoglycemia risk in vulnerable patients. Data Sources MEDLINE, the National Guidelines Clearinghouse, the National Quality Measures Clearinghouse, and supplemental sources. Study Design Systematic review of clinical standards (guidelines, quality metrics, or pay-for-performance programs) for glycemic control in adult diabetes patients. The primary outcome was discussion of increased risk for hypoglycemia in vulnerable populations. Data Collection/Extraction Methods Manuscripts identified were abstracted by two independent reviewers using prespecified inclusion/exclusion criteria and a standardized abstraction form. Principal Findings We screened 1,166 titles, and reviewed 220 manuscripts in full text. Forty-four guidelines, 17 quality metrics, and 8 pay-for-performance programs were included. Five (11 percent) guidelines and no quality metrics or pay-for-performance programs met the primary outcome. Conclusions Clinical standards do not substantively incorporate evidence about increased risk for hypoglycemia in vulnerable populations. PMID:23445498

Cancer Risks in Aluminum Reduction Plant Workers

PubMed Central

Labrèche, France

2014-01-01

Objective and Methods: This review examines epidemiological evidence relating to cancers in the primary aluminum industry where most of what is known relates to Söderberg operations or to mixed Söderberg/prebake operations. Results and Conclusions: Increased lung and bladder cancer risks have been reported in Söderberg workers from several countries, but not in all. After adjustment for smoking, these cancer risks still increase with cumulative exposure to benzo(a)pyrene, used as an index of coal tar pitch volatiles exposure. Limited evidence has been gathered in several cohorts for an increased risk of tumors at other sites, including stomach, pancreas, rectum/rectosigmoid junction, larynx, buccal cavity/pharynx, kidney, brain/nervous system, prostate, and lymphatic/hematopoietic tissues (in particular non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Hodgkin disease, and leukemia). Nevertheless, for most of these tumor sites, the relationship with specific exposures has not been demonstrated clearly and further follow-up of workers is warranted. PMID:24806725

Social Networks, Sexual Networks and HIV Risk in Men Who Have Sex with Men

PubMed Central

Amirkhanian, Yuri A.

2014-01-01

Worldwide, men who have sex with men (MSM) remain one of the most HIV-vulnerable community populations. A global public health priority is developing new methods of reaching MSM, understanding HIV transmission patterns, and intervening to reduce their risk. Increased attention is being given to the role that MSM networks play in HIV epidemiology. This review of MSM network research studies demonstrates that: (1) Members of the same social network often share similar norms, attitudes, and HIV risk behavior levels; (2) Network interventions are feasible and powerful for reducing unprotected sex and potentially for increasing HIV testing uptake; (3) HIV vulnerability among African American MSM increases when an individual enters a high-risk sexual network characterized by high density and racial homogeneity; and (4) Networks are primary sources of social support for MSM, particularly for those living with HIV, with greater support predicting higher care uptake and adherence. PMID:24384832

Psychiatric Disorders, High-Risk Behaviors, and Chronicity of Episodes Among Predominantly African American Homeless Chicago Youth

PubMed Central

Castro, Anne L.; Gustafson, Erika L.; Ford, Ashley E.; Edidin, Jennifer P.; Smith, Dale L.; Hunter, Scott J.; Karnik, Niranjan S.

2014-01-01

Objective This cross-sectional study investigated the relationships between psychiatric and substance-related disorders, high-risk behaviors, and the onset, duration, and frequency of homelessness among homeless youth in Chicago. Methods Sixty-six homeless youth were recruited from two shelters in Chicago. Demographic characteristics, psychopathology, substance use, and risk behaviors were assessed for each participant. Results Increased frequency and duration of homeless episodes were positively correlated with higher rates of psychiatric diagnoses. Increased number of psychiatric diagnoses was positively correlated with increased high-risk behaviors. Participants with diagnoses of Current Suicidality, Manic Episodes, Obsessive Compulsive Disorder, Substance Abuse, and Psychotic Disorder had a higher chronicity of homelessness than those without diagnoses. Conclusions Significant differences were evident between the three time parameters, suggesting that stratification of data by different time variables may benefit homelessness research by identifying meaningful subgroups who may benefit from individualized interventions. PMID:25130234

Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 as a Predictor of Postoperative Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Abdominal Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Sun, Zhen; Kong, Xin-Juan; Jing, Xue; Deng, Run-Jun; Tian, Zi-Bin

2015-01-01

Background The nutritional risk screening (NRS 2002) has been applied increasingly in patients who underwent abdominal surgery for nutritional risk assessment. However, the usefulness of the NRS 2002 for predicting is controversial. This meta-analysis was to examine whether a preoperative evaluation of nutritional risk by NRS 2002 provided prediction of postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing abdominal surgery. Methods A systematic literature search for published papers was conducted using the following online databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane library, EBSCO, CRD databases, Cinahl, PsycInfo and BIOSIS previews. The pooled odds ratio (OR) or weight mean difference (WMD) was calculated using a random-effect model or a fix-effect model. Results Eleven studies with a total of 3527 patients included in this study. Postoperative overall complications were more frequent in nutritional risk patients versus patients without nutritional risk (the pooled OR 3.13 [2.51, 3.90] p<0.00001). The pooled OR of mortality for the nutritional risk group and non-nutritional risk group was 3.61 [1.38, 9.47] (p = 0.009). Furthermore, the postoperative hospital stay was significant longer in the preoperative nutritional risk group than in the nutritional normal group (WMD 5.58 [4.21, 6.95] p<0.00001). Conclusions The present study has demonstrated that patients at preoperative nutritional risk have increased complication rates, high mortality and prolonged hospital stay after surgery. However, NRS 2002 needs to be validated in larger samples of patients undergoing abdominal surgery by better reference method. PMID:26172830

[Ergonomics and productivity: an example applied to a manufacturing industry].

PubMed

Battevi, Natale; Vitelli, Nora

2013-01-01

The survival of manufacturing in the western world also depends on the ability to increase productivity. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to recover the efficiency of all workers suffering from upper limb biomechanical overload disease. Ergonomic methods can be a valuable tool in solving this apparent conflict: operatives'productivity and health. After carrying out an ergonomic education and training programme for all company employees and risk assessment for upper limb biomechanical overload through the OCRA checklist method, a programme of improvements on a production line was planned and tested, mainly based on international and European standards. Within approximately 2 years, thanks to changes in workplace layout and organization, a significant reduction of 22.7% in risk level was achieved and, at the same time, a 16% increase in productivity. An ergonomic approach based on global, interdisciplinary and participatory principles in the case considered showed that it is possible to match increased productivity with decreased risk. In this specific case application of ergonomic principles during product design was rather poor, which is typical of companies working for third party customers.

Placental peptides metabolism and maternal factors as predictors of risk of gestational diabetes in pregnant women. A case-control study

PubMed Central

Fondjo, Linda Ahenkorah; Gmagna, Peter; Ghartey, Frank Naku; Awe, Martin Akilla

2017-01-01

Background Gestational diabetes is a risk factor for perinatal complications; include shoulder dystocia, birth injuries such as bone fractures and nerve palsies. It is associated with later development of type 2 diabetes, the risk of macrosomia and other long-term health effects of infants born to diabetic mothers. The study assesses placental peptides and maternal factors as potential predictors of gestational diabetes among pregnant women. Material and methods A total of 200 pregnant women were recruited for the study, 150 pregnant women without pre gestational diabetes including 50 women with low risk factors of diabetes as controls and 50 other pregnant women with pregestational diabetes as control. Fasting blood glucose and the lipid profile were determined by enzymatic methods using Envoy® 500 reagents (Vital Diagnostics, USA). Glycated haemoglobin was assessed using the Cation Exchange resin method. Leptin and the Human Placenta Lactogen were assayed using the Sandwich-ELISA technique. Beta chorionic gonadotrophin, insulin, progesterone and estradiol were determined using chemilumiscence imunoassay technique on MAGLUMI 600 analyzer. Anthropometry, including BMI and blood pressure were also measured. Results Fasting plasma glucose (FBG), insulin, insulin resistance, glycated haemoglobin and Human Placenta Lactogen(HPL)were significantly (p<0.0001) increased in the pregestational diabetic women whereas progesterone and estradiol were significantly decreased. In the second trimester however, there was no significant difference (p>0.05) in estradiol, insulin, insulin resistance and HPL between the pregnant women who developed gestational diabetes and those who did not. Leptin, progesterone and FBG were significantly increased in those who developed GDM. The risk of developing gestational diabetes increased with overweight (OR = 1.76, P = 0.370) and family history of diabetes (OR = 2.18, P = 0.282). Conclusion Leptin, progesterone, estradiol estimated in this study were increased in the gestational diabetes mellitus women and fairly predicted gestational diabetes in the non-diabetics pregnant women. Obesity, aging and family history of diabetes were strongly predictive of gestational diabetes. PMID:28732072

Sabotage at Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Purvis, James W.

1999-07-21

Recently there has been a noted worldwide increase in violent actions including attempted sabotage at nuclear power plants. Several organizations, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, have guidelines, recommendations, and formal threat- and risk-assessment processes for the protection of nuclear assets. Other examples are the former Defense Special Weapons Agency, which used a risk-assessment model to evaluate force-protection security requirements for terrorist incidents at DOD military bases. The US DOE uses a graded approach to protect its assets based on risk and vulnerability assessments. The Federal Aviation Administration and Federal Bureau of Investigationmore » conduct joint threat and vulnerability assessments on high-risk US airports. Several private companies under contract to government agencies use formal risk-assessment models and methods to identify security requirements. The purpose of this paper is to survey these methods and present an overview of all potential types of sabotage at nuclear power plants. The paper discusses emerging threats and current methods of choice for sabotage--especially vehicle bombs and chemical attacks. Potential consequences of sabotage acts, including economic and political; not just those that may result in unacceptable radiological exposure to the public, are also discussed. Applicability of risk-assessment methods and mitigation techniques are also presented.« less

Measurement of Bone: Diagnosis of SCI-Induced Osteoporosis and Fracture Risk Prediction

PubMed Central

Morse, Leslie R.

2015-01-01

Background: Spinal cord injury (SCI) is associated with a rapid loss of bone mass, resulting in severe osteoporosis and a 5- to 23-fold increase in fracture risk. Despite the seriousness of fractures in SCI, there are multiple barriers to osteoporosis diagnosis and wide variations in treatment practices for SCI-induced osteoporosis. Methods: We review the biological and structural changes that are known to occur in bone after SCI in the context of promoting future research to prevent or reduce risk of fracture in this population. We also review the most commonly used methods for assessing bone after SCI and discuss the strengths, limitations, and clinical applications of each method. Conclusions: Although dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry assessments of bone mineral density may be used clinically to detect changes in bone after SCI, 3-dimensional methods such as quantitative CT analysis are recommended for research applications and are explained in detail. PMID:26689691

Food preparation methods, drinking water source, and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the high-risk area of Golestan, Northeast Iran.

PubMed

Golozar, Asieh; Etemadi, Arash; Kamangar, Farin; Fazeltabar Malekshah, Akbar; Islami, Farhad; Nasrollahzadeh, Dariush; Abedi-Ardekani, Behnoosh; Khoshnia, Masoud; Pourshams, Akram; Semnani, Shahriar; Marjani, Haji Amin; Shakeri, Ramin; Sotoudeh, Masoud; Brennan, Paul; Taylor, Philip; Boffetta, Paolo; Abnet, Christian; Dawsey, Sanford; Malekzadeh, Reza

2016-03-01

Cooking practices and water sources have been associated with an increased risk of cancer, mainly through exposure to carcinogens such as heterocyclic amines, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and nitrates. Using data from the Golestan case-control study, carried out between 2003 and 2007 in a high-risk region for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), we sought to investigate the association between food preparation and drinking water sources and ESCC. Information on food preparation methods, sources of drinking water, and dietary habits was gathered from 300 cases and 571 controls matched individually for age, sex, and neighborhood using a structured questionnaire and a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Multivariate conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for potential confounders and other known risk factors including socioeconomic status and smoking. More than 95% of the participants reported eating meat, mostly red meat. Red meat consumption above the 75th percentile increased the odds of ESCC by 2.82-fold (95% CI: 1.21-6.57). Fish intake was associated with a significant 68% decrease in ESCC odds (26%, 86%). Among meat eaters, ORs (95% CI) for frying meat (red or white) and fish were 3.34 (1.32-8.45) and 2.62 (1.24-5.5). Drinking unpiped water increased ESCC odds by 4.25 times (2.23-8.11). The OR for each 10-year increase in the duration of drinking unpiped water was 1.47 (1.22-1.78). Our results suggest roles for red meat intake, drinking water source, and food preparation methods in ESCC, even after adjusting for a large number of potential confounders.

Mapping of HLA- DQ haplotypes in a group of Danish patients with celiac disease.

PubMed

Lund, Flemming; Hermansen, Mette N; Pedersen, Merete F; Hillig, Thore; Toft-Hansen, Henrik; Sölétormos, György

2015-10-01

A cost-effective identification of HLA- DQ risk haplotypes using the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) technique has recently been applied in the diagnosis of celiac disease (CD) in four European populations. The objective of the study was to map risk HLA- DQ haplotypes in a group of Danish CD patients using the SNP technique. Cohort A: Among 65 patients with gastrointestinal symptoms we compared the HLA- DQ2 and HLA- DQ8 risk haplotypes obtained by the SNP technique (method 1) with results based on a sequence specific primer amplification technique (method 2) and a technique used in an assay from BioDiagene (method 3). Cohort B: 128 patients with histologically verified CD were tested for CD risk haplotypes (method 1). Patients with negative results were further tested for sub-haplotypes of HLA- DQ2 (methods 2 and 3). Cohort A: The three applied methods provided the same HLA- DQ2 and HLA- DQ8 results among 61 patients. Four patients were negative for the HLA- DQ2 and HLA- DQ8 haplotypes (method 1) but were positive for the HLA- DQ2.5-trans and HLA- DQ2.2 haplotypes (methods 2 and 3). Cohort B: A total of 120 patients were positive for the HLA- DQ2.5-cis and HLA- DQ8 haplotypes (method 1). The remaining seven patients were positive for HLA- DQ2.5-trans or HLA- DQ2.2 haplotypes (methods 2 and 3). One patient was negative with all three HLA methods. The HLA- DQ risk haplotypes were detected in 93.8% of the CD patients using the SNP technique (method 1). The sensitivity increased to 99.2% by combining methods 1 - 3.

Adolescent health and subsequent risk of self-harm hospitalisation: a 15-year follow-up of the Young-HUNT cohort.

PubMed

Junker, Asbjørn; Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Bjerkeset, Ottar

2017-01-01

Self-harm is associated with increased suicide risk, and constitutes a major challenge in adolescent mental healthcare. In the current study, we examined the association between different aspects of adolescent health and risk of later self-harm requiring hospital admission. We linked baseline information from 13 to 19 year old participants (n = 8965) in the Norwegian Young-HUNT 1 study to patient records of self-harm hospitalisation during 15 years of follow-up. We used Cox regression to estimate risk factor hazard ratios (HR). Eighty-nine persons (71% female) were admitted to hospital because of self-harm. Intoxication/self-poisoning was the most frequent method (81%). Both mental (anxiety/depression, loneliness, being bullied) and somatic (epilepsy, migraine) health issues were associated with up to fourfold increased risk of self-harm-related hospital admission. Several health issues during adolescence markedly increased the risk of later self-harm hospitalisation. Current findings should be incorporated in the strive to reduce self-harming and attempted suicides among young people.

Risk factors for degenerative spondylolisthesis: a systematic review

PubMed Central

DeVine, John G.; Schenk-Kisser, Jeannette M.; Skelly, Andrea C.

2012-01-01

Study design: Systematic literature review. Rationale: Many authors have postulated on various risk factors associated with the pathogenesis of degenerative spondylolisthesis (DS), yet controversies regarding those risk factors still exist. Objective: To critically appraise and summarize evidence on risk factors for DS. Methods: Articles published before October 15, 2011, were systematically reviewed using PubMed and bibliographies of key articles. Each article was subject to quality rating and was analyzed by two independent reviewers. Results: From 382 citations, 30 underwent full-text review. Fourteen studies met inclusion criteria. All but two were considered poor quality. Female gender and higher facet joint angle were consistently associated with an increased risk of DS across multiple studies. Multiple studies also consistently reported no association between back pain and prolonged occupational sitting. Associations between age, parity, lumbosacral angle, lumbar lordosis, facet joint tropism, and pelvic inclination angles were inconsistent. Conclusions: There appears to be consistent evidence to suggest that the risk of DS increases with increasing age and is greater for females and people with a greater facet joint angle. PMID:23230415

Comparison of 3 Methods for Identifying Dietary Patterns Associated With Risk of Disease

PubMed Central

DiBello, Julia R.; Kraft, Peter; McGarvey, Stephen T.; Goldberg, Robert; Campos, Hannia

2008-01-01

Reduced rank regression and partial least-squares regression (PLS) are proposed alternatives to principal component analysis (PCA). Using all 3 methods, the authors derived dietary patterns in Costa Rican data collected on 3,574 cases and controls in 1994–2004 and related the resulting patterns to risk of first incident myocardial infarction. Four dietary patterns associated with myocardial infarction were identified. Factor 1, characterized by high intakes of lean chicken, vegetables, fruit, and polyunsaturated oil, was generated by all 3 dietary pattern methods and was associated with a significantly decreased adjusted risk of myocardial infarction (28%–46%, depending on the method used). PCA and PLS also each yielded a pattern associated with a significantly decreased risk of myocardial infarction (31% and 23%, respectively); this pattern was characterized by moderate intake of alcohol and polyunsaturated oil and low intake of high-fat dairy products. The fourth factor derived from PCA was significantly associated with a 38% increased risk of myocardial infarction and was characterized by high intakes of coffee and palm oil. Contrary to previous studies, the authors found PCA and PLS to produce more patterns associated with cardiovascular disease than reduced rank regression. The most effective method for deriving dietary patterns related to disease may vary depending on the study goals. PMID:18945692

Listeriosis Prevention for Older Adults: Effective Messages and Delivery Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cates, Sheryl C.; Kosa, Katherine M.; Moore, Christina M.; Jaykus, Lee-Ann; Ten Eyck, Toby A.; Cowen, Peter

2007-01-01

Individuals aged 60 years and older are at an increased risk for listeriosis and other foodborne illnesses. They can reduce their risk by following recommended food safety practices. A total of 8 focus groups were conducted to characterize older adults' food safety knowledge and practices, their impressions of educational materials on listeriosis…

Attitudes, Norms, and the Effect of Social Connectedness on Adolescent Sexual Risk Intention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cederbaum, Julie A.; Rodriguez, Aubrey J.; Sullivan, Kathrine; Gray, Kandice

2017-01-01

Background: Risky sexual behaviors put adolescents at increased risk of adverse outcomes. Parents, school-based adults, and peers play important roles in influencing these sex intentions. Methods: This work explored the influence of parent-child sex communication on adolescent attitudes, perceived norms, and intentions to have sex, including the…

Low levels of energy expenditure in childhood cancer survivors: Implications for obesity prevention

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Childhood cancer survivors are at an increased risk of obesity but causes for this elevated risk are uncertain. We evaluated total energy expenditure in childhood cancer survivors using the doubly labeled water method in a cross-sectional study of 17 survivors of pediatric leukemia or lymphoma (medi...

Screening for Dysregulation among Toddlers Born Very Low Birth Weight

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erickson, Sarah J.; MacLean, Peggy; Duvall, Susanne Woolsey; Lowe, Jean R.

2013-01-01

Background: Children born very low birth weight (VLBW) are at increased risk for regulatory difficulties. However, identifying toddlers at risk has been impeded by a lack of screening measures appropriate for this population. Methods: We studied the nature of dysregulation in toddlers born VLBW (N = 32) using the Infant-Toddler Social and…

COMPARATIVE POTENCY METHOD FOR CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT: CLARIFICATION OF THE RATIONALE, THEORETICAL BASIS, AND APPLICATION TO DIESEL PARTICULATE EMISSIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The rapid increase in new combustion technologies and new fuels for automobiles, residential and industrial heating, and other energy-related processes poses a particularly unique problem for both the scientific assessment of risk and the regulatory decision-making process that m...

At-Risk Youth Programs in Oregon: A Sourcebook of Program Ideas for Public Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roid, Gale H.

This sourcebook describes methods of dealing with dropouts in Oregon school districts. "At-risk youth" and "dropout" are defined and survey results of 98 percent of superintendents concerning program offerings are summarized. Data suggest that medium-size districts require greatest assistance. Despite increases in single-parent…

Evaluating efficiency and statistical power of self-controlled case series and self-controlled risk interval designs in vaccine safety.

PubMed

Li, Rongxia; Stewart, Brock; Weintraub, Eric

2016-01-01

The self-controlled case series (SCCS) and self-controlled risk interval (SCRI) designs have recently become widely used in the field of post-licensure vaccine safety monitoring to detect potential elevated risks of adverse events following vaccinations. The SCRI design can be viewed as a subset of the SCCS method in that a reduced comparison time window is used for the analysis. Compared to the SCCS method, the SCRI design has less statistical power due to fewer events occurring in the shorter control interval. In this study, we derived the asymptotic relative efficiency (ARE) between these two methods to quantify this loss in power in the SCRI design. The equation is formulated as [Formula: see text] (a: control window-length ratio between SCRI and SCCS designs; b: ratio of risk window length and control window length in the SCCS design; and [Formula: see text]: relative risk of exposed window to control window). According to this equation, the relative efficiency declines as the ratio of control-period length between SCRI and SCCS methods decreases, or with an increase in the relative risk [Formula: see text]. We provide an example utilizing data from the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) to study the potential elevated risk of febrile seizure following seasonal influenza vaccine in the 2010-2011 season.

Associations between heavy episodic drinking and alcohol related injuries: a case control study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Alcohol is a significant risk factor for injuries. This study addresses 1) whether the risk of alcohol related injury increases with frequency of heavy episodic drinking (HED) in a linear fashion, and 2) whether a small group of high risk drinkers accounts for the majority of alcohol related injuries. Methods We applied a case – control design. Cases were BAC positive injured patients (n = 534) and controls were respondents to a general population survey in Norway (n = 1947). Age and gender adjusted association between self-reported past year HED frequency and alcohol related injury risk was estimated in logistic regression models for all alcohol related injuries and for violence injuries and accident injuries separately. Results An increase in HED was associated with an increase in risk of alcohol related injury, resembling a linear risk function. The small fraction of high risk drinkers (6.6%) accounted for 41.6% of all alcohol related injuries, thus lending support to the validity of the prevention paradox. Conclusion There is a strong relationship between frequency of heavy episodic drinking and risk of alcohol related injuries, yet the majority of alcohol related injuries are found among drinkers who are not in the high risk group. PMID:24228707

Effects of microgravity on renal stone risk assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pietrzyk, R. A.; Pak, C. Y. C.; Cintron, N. M.; Whitson, P. A.

1992-01-01

Physiologic changes induced during human exposure to the microgravity environment of space may contribute to an increased potential for renal stone formation. Renal stone risk factors obtained 10 days before flight and immediately after return to earth indicated that calcium oxalate and uric acid stone-forming potential was increased after space flights of 4-10 days. These data describe the need for examining renal stone risk during in-flight phases of space missions. Because of limited availability of space and refrigerated storage on spacecraft, effective methods must be developed for collecting urine samples in-flight and for preserving (or storing) them at temperatures and under conditions commensurate with mission constraints.

Gout in Older Adults: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

PubMed Central

Burke, Bridget Teevan; Köttgen, Anna; Law, Andrew; Grams, Morgan; Baer, Alan N.; Coresh, Josef

2016-01-01

Background: It is unclear whether traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age predict the onset of gout in older age. Methods: We studied the incidence of gout in older adults using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, a prospective U.S. population–based cohort of middle-aged adults enrolled between 1987 and 1989 with ongoing follow-up. A genetic urate score was formed from common urate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms for eight genes. The adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval of incident gout by traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: The cumulative incidence from middle age to age 65 was 8.6% in men and 2.5% in women; by age 75 the cumulative incidence was 11.8% and 5.0%. In middle age, increased adiposity, beer intake, protein intake, smoking status, hypertension, diuretic use, and kidney function (but not sex) were associated with an increased gout risk in older age. In addition, a 100 µmol/L increase in genetic urate score was associated with a 3.29-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.63–6.63) increased gout risk in older age. Conclusions: These findings suggest that traditional and genetic risk factors in middle age may be useful for identifying those at risk of gout in older age. PMID:26714568

Fetal Growth and Childhood Cancer: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Sørensen, Henrik Toft; Grotmol, Tom; Engeland, Anders; Stephansson, Olof; Gissler, Mika; Tretli, Steinar; Troisi, Rebecca

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The etiology of childhood cancers is largely unknown. Studies have suggested that birth characteristics may be associated with risk. Our goal was to evaluate the risk of childhood cancers in relation to fetal growth. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within Nordic birth registries. The study included cancer cases diagnosed in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden among children born from 1967 to 2010 and up to 10 matched controls per case, totaling 17 698 cases and 172 422 controls. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were derived from conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Risks of all childhood cancers increased with increasing birth weight (Ptrend ≤ .001). Risks of acute lymphoid leukemia and Wilms tumor were elevated when birth weight was >4000 g and of central nervous system tumors when birth weight was >4500 g. Newborns large for gestational age were at increased risk of Wilms tumor (OR: 2.1 [95% CI: 1.2–3.6]) and connective/soft tissue tumors (OR: 2.1 [95% CI: 1.1–4.4]). In contrast, the risk of acute myeloid leukemia was increased among children born small for gestational age (OR: 1.8 [95% CI: 1.1–3.1]). Children diagnosed with central nervous system tumors at <1 year of age had elevated risk with increasing head circumference (Ptrend < .001). Those with head circumference >39 cm had the highest risk (OR: 4.7 [95% CI: 2.5–8.7]). CONCLUSIONS: In this large, Nordic population-based study, increased risks for several childhood tumors were associated with measures of fetal growth, supporting the hypothesis that tumorigenesis manifesting in childhood is initiated in utero. PMID:24167169

Partner violence, power and gender differences in South African adolescents’ HIV/STI behaviors

PubMed Central

TEITELMAN, Anne M.; JEMMOTT, John B.; BELLAMY, Scarlett L.; ICARD, Larry D.; O'LEARY, Ann; HEEREN, G. Anita; NGWANE, Zolani; RATCLIFFE, Sarah J.

2016-01-01

Objectives Low relationship power and victimization by intimate partner violence (IPV) have been linked to HIV risks among adult females and adolescent girls. This article examines associations of IPV and relationship power with sexual-risk behaviors and whether the associations differ by gender among South African adolescents. Methods Sexual-risk behaviors (multiple partners in past 3 months; condom use at last sex), IPV, and relationship power were collected from 786 sexually experienced adolescents (mean age = 16.9) in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa during the 54-month follow-up of a HIV/STI risk-reduction intervention trial. Logistic regression examined associations of sexual-risk behaviors with IPV and relationship power and whether the associations differed by gender. Results Adolescent boys were less likely to report condom use at last sex (p=.001) and more likely to report multiple partners (p< .001). A Gender x IPV interaction (p=.002) revealed that as IPV victimization increased, self-reported condom use at last sex decreased among girls, but increased among boys. A Gender x Relationship Power interaction (p=.004) indicated that as relationship power increased, self-reported condom use at last sex increased among girls, but decreased among boys. A Gender x IPV interaction (p=.004) indicated that as IPV victimization increased, self-reports of having multiple partners increased among boys, but not among girls. As relationship power increased, self-reports of having multiple partners decreased irrespective of gender. Conclusions HIV risk-reduction interventions and policies should address gender differences in sexual-risk consequences of IPV and relationship power among adolescents and promote gender equity. PMID:27111184

Association of stressful life events with incident falls and fractures in older men: the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Study

PubMed Central

Fink, Howard A.; Kuskowski, Michael A.; Marshall, Lynn M.

2014-01-01

Background: small, retrospective studies suggest that major life events and/or sudden emotional stress may increase fall and fracture risk. The current study examines these associations prospectively. Methods: a total of 5,152 men aged ≥65 years in the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men study self-reported data on stressful life events for 1 year prior to study Visit 2. Incident falls and fractures were ascertained for 1 year after Visit 2. Fractures were centrally confirmed. Results: a total of 2,932 (56.9%) men reported ≥1 type of stressful life event. In men with complete stressful life event, fall and covariate data (n = 3,949), any stressful life event was associated with a 33% increased risk of incident fall [relative risk (RR) 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19–1.49] and 68% increased risk of multiple falls (RR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.40–2.01) in the year following Visit 2 after adjustment for age, education, Parkinson's disease, diabetes, stroke, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) impairment, chair stand time, walk speed, multiple past falls, depressive symptoms and antidepressant use. Risk increased with the number of types of stressful life events. Though any stressful life event was associated with a 58% increased age-adjusted risk for incident fracture, this association was attenuated and no longer statistically significant after additional adjustment for total hip bone mineral density, fracture after age 50, Parkinson's disease, stroke and IADL impairment. Conclusions: in this cohort of older men, stressful life events significantly increased risk of incident falls independent of other explanatory variables, but did not independently increase incident fracture risk. PMID:24002237

Hydrologic risk analysis in the Yangtze River basin through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Y. R.; Huang, W. W.; Huang, G. H.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, K.; Li, Z.

2016-02-01

In this study, a bivariate hydrologic risk framework is proposed through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas, leading to a coupled GMM-copula method. In the coupled GMM-Copula method, the marginal distributions of flood peak, volume and duration are quantified through Gaussian mixture models and the joint probability distributions of flood peak-volume, peak-duration and volume-duration are established through copulas. The bivariate hydrologic risk is then derived based on the joint return period of flood variable pairs. The proposed method is applied to the risk analysis for the Yichang station on the main stream of the Yangtze River, China. The results indicate that (i) the bivariate risk for flood peak-volume would keep constant for the flood volume less than 1.0 × 105 m3/s day, but present a significant decreasing trend for the flood volume larger than 1.7 × 105 m3/s day; and (ii) the bivariate risk for flood peak-duration would not change significantly for the flood duration less than 8 days, and then decrease significantly as duration value become larger. The probability density functions (pdfs) of the flood volume and duration conditional on flood peak can also be generated through the fitted copulas. The results indicate that the conditional pdfs of flood volume and duration follow bimodal distributions, with the occurrence frequency of the first vertex decreasing and the latter one increasing as the increase of flood peak. The obtained conclusions from the bivariate hydrologic analysis can provide decision support for flood control and mitigation.

Big Data Usage Patterns in the Health Care Domain: A Use Case Driven Approach Applied to the Assessment of Vaccination Benefits and Risks. Contribution of the IMIA Primary Healthcare Working Group.

PubMed

Liyanage, H; de Lusignan, S; Liaw, S-T; Kuziemsky, C E; Mold, F; Krause, P; Fleming, D; Jones, S

2014-08-15

Generally benefits and risks of vaccines can be determined from studies carried out as part of regulatory compliance, followed by surveillance of routine data; however there are some rarer and more long term events that require new methods. Big data generated by increasingly affordable personalised computing, and from pervasive computing devices is rapidly growing and low cost, high volume, cloud computing makes the processing of these data inexpensive. To describe how big data and related analytical methods might be applied to assess the benefits and risks of vaccines. We reviewed the literature on the use of big data to improve health, applied to generic vaccine use cases, that illustrate benefits and risks of vaccination. We defined a use case as the interaction between a user and an information system to achieve a goal. We used flu vaccination and pre-school childhood immunisation as exemplars. We reviewed three big data use cases relevant to assessing vaccine benefits and risks: (i) Big data processing using crowdsourcing, distributed big data processing, and predictive analytics, (ii) Data integration from heterogeneous big data sources, e.g. the increasing range of devices in the "internet of things", and (iii) Real-time monitoring for the direct monitoring of epidemics as well as vaccine effects via social media and other data sources. Big data raises new ethical dilemmas, though its analysis methods can bring complementary real-time capabilities for monitoring epidemics and assessing vaccine benefit-risk balance.

Meat cooking habits and risk of colorectal cancer in Córdoba, Argentina.

PubMed

Navarro, Alicia; Muñoz, Sonia E; Lantieri, María J; del Pilar Diaz, María; Cristaldo, Patricia E; de Fabro, Sofía P; Eynard, Aldo R

2004-10-01

Colorectal cancer is the third cause of death among women and the fifth among men in Córdoba, Argentina. We previously reported colorectal cancer to be associated with a high intake of fatty meats and bovine viscera and inversely associated with dietary fiber intake. In this study, we investigated the role of method of cooking meat and preferences in browned surfaces in the risk of colorectal cancer. A case-control retrospective study was carried out by interviewing 296 patients and 597 control subjects with a food-frequency questionnaire. Meat consumption and preferred cooking procedures (boiled, roasted, barbecued, cooked in a flat iron-pan without fat, and fried) were investigated. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were obtained by unconditional logistic regression analysis. Barbecuing was the cooking method preferred by men, whereas iron-pan cooking was favored by women; frying was the least favored method. Fatty beef, sausages, and bovine viscera were preferentially barbecued or boiled, whereas lean beef was mainly roasted, iron-pan cooked, or fried. Chicken was barbecued or roasted. The multivariate relative risks (adjusted by age, sex, social stratum, and total energy intake) for preferring darkly browned surfaces were significantly associated with an increased risk for all cooking procedures (odds ratio, 4.57; 95% confidence interval, 3.10 to 6.73). No associations were found for red roasted or for boiled meats. Increased risk seems to be related to cooking temperature and close contact of the food to the heating source, because higher risks were observed for heavily browned surfaces when meats were barbecued or iron-pan cooked.

Catastrophic thinking and increased risk for prescription opioid misuse in patients with chronic pain

PubMed Central

Martel, MO; Wasan, AD; Jamison, RN; Edwards, RR

2013-01-01

Background As a consequence of the substantial rise in the prescription of opioids for the treatment of chronic noncancer pain, greater attention has been paid to the factors that may be associated with an increased risk for prescription opioid misuse. Recently, a growing number of studies have shown that patients with high levels of catastrophizing are at increased risk for prescription opioid misuse. Objective The primary objective of this study was to examine the variables that might underlie the association between catastrophizing and risk for prescription opioid misuse in patients with chronic pain. Methods Patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain (n = 115) were asked to complete the SOAPP-R, a validated self-report questionnaire designed to identify patients at risk for prescription opioid misuse. Patients were also asked to complete self-report measures of pain intensity, catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression. Results Consistent with previous research, we found that catastrophizing was associated with an increased risk for prescription opioid misuse. Results also revealed that the association between catastrophizing and risk for opioid misuse was partially mediated by patients’ levels of anxiety. Follow-up analyses, however, indicated that catastrophizing remained a significant ‘unique’ predictor of risk for opioid misuse even when controlling for patients’ levels of pain severity, anxiety and depressive symptoms. Discussion Discussion addresses the factors that might place patients with high levels of catastrophizing at increased risk for prescription opioid misuse. The implications of our findings for the management of patients considered for opioid therapy are also discussed. PMID:23618767

Dietary intake of acrylamide and endometrial cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort

PubMed Central

Obón-Santacana, M; Kaaks, R; Slimani, N; Lujan-Barroso, L; Freisling, H; Ferrari, P; Dossus, L; Chabbert-Buffet, N; Baglietto, L; Fortner, R T; Boeing, H; Tjønneland, A; Olsen, A; Overvad, K; Menéndez, V; Molina-Montes, E; Larrañaga, N; Chirlaque, M-D; Ardanaz, E; Khaw, K-T; Wareham, N; Travis, R C; Lu, Y; Merritt, M A; Trichopoulou, A; Benetou, V; Trichopoulos, D; Saieva, C; Sieri, S; Tumino, R; Sacerdote, C; Galasso, R; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H B; Wirfält, E; Ericson, U; Idahl, A; Ohlson, N; Skeie, G; Gram, I T; Weiderpass, E; Onland-Moret, N C; Riboli, E; Duell, E J

2014-01-01

Background: Three prospective studies have evaluated the association between dietary acrylamide intake and endometrial cancer (EC) risk with inconsistent results. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between acrylamide intake and EC risk: for overall EC, for type-I EC, and in never smokers and never users of oral contraceptives (OCs). Smoking is a source of acrylamide, and OC use is a protective factor for EC risk. Methods: Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between acrylamide intake and EC risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Acrylamide intake was estimated from the EU acrylamide monitoring database, which was matched with EPIC questionnaire-based food consumption data. Acrylamide intake was energy adjusted using the residual method. Results: No associations were observed between acrylamide intake and overall EC (n=1382) or type-I EC risk (n=627). We observed increasing relative risks for type-I EC with increasing acrylamide intake among women who both never smoked and were non-users of OCs (HRQ5vsQ1: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.08–3.62; likelihood ratio test (LRT) P-value: 0.01, n=203). Conclusions: Dietary intake of acrylamide was not associated with overall or type-I EC risk; however, positive associations with type I were observed in women who were both non-users of OCs and never smokers. PMID:24937665

Lifetime risk of stroke in young-aged and middle-aged Chinese population: the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Liu, Jing; Wang, Wei; Wang, Miao; Qi, Yue; Xie, Wuxiang; Li, Yan; Sun, Jiayi; Liu, Jun; Zhao, Dong

2016-01-01

Objective: Stroke is a major cause of premature death in China. Early prevention of stroke requires a more effective method to differentiate the stroke risk among young-aged and middle-aged individuals than the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to establish a lifetime stroke risk model and risk charts for the young-aged and middle-aged population in China. Methods: The Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study participants (n = 21 953) aged 35–84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for 18 years (263 016 person-years). Modified Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate the mean lifetime stroke risk up to age of 80 years and the lifetime stroke risk according to major stroke risk factors for the population aged 35–60 years. Results: A total of 917 participants developed first-ever strokes. For the participants aged 35–40 years (98 stroke cases), the lifetime stroke risk was 18.0 and 14.7% in men and women, respectively. Blood pressure most effectively discriminated the lifetime stroke risk. The lifetime risk of stroke for the individuals with all risk factors optimal was 8–10 times lower compared with those with two or more high risk factors at age 35–60 years at baseline. Conclusion: In young-aged and middle-aged population, the lifetime stroke risk will keep very low if major risk factors especially blood pressure level is at optimal levels, but the risk substantially increases even with a slight elevation of major risk factors, which could not be identified using 10-year risk estimation. PMID:27512963

Women Born Preterm or with Inappropriate Weight for Gestational Age Are at Risk of Subsequent Gestational Diabetes and Pre-Eclampsia

PubMed Central

á Rogvi, Rasmus; Forman, Julie Lyng; Damm, Peter; Greisen, Gorm

2012-01-01

Introduction Low birthweight, which can be caused by inappropriate intrauterine growth or prematurity, is associated with development of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) as well as pre-eclampsia later in life, but the relative effects of prematurity and inappropriate intrauterine growth remain uncertain. Methods Through nation-wide registries we identified all Danish mothers in the years 1989–2007. Two separate cohorts consisting mothers born 1974–1977 (n = 84219) and 1978–1981 (n = 32376) were studied, due to different methods of registering birthweight and gestational age in the two periods. Data was linked with information on GDM, pre-eclampsia and education. Results In a multivariate logistic regression model the odds of developing GDM was increased by 5–7% for each week the mother was born before term (p = 0.018 for 1974–1977, p = 0.048 for 1978–1981), while the odds were increased by 13–17% for each standard deviation (SD) reduction in birthweight for gestational age for those who were small or normal for gestational age (p<0.0001 and p = 0.035) and increased by 118–122% for each SD increase above the normal range (p<0.0001 and p = 0.024). The odds of pre-eclampsia was increased by 3–5% for each week the mother was born before term (p = 0.064 and p = 0.04), while the odds were increased 11–12% for each SD reduction in birthweight for gestational age (p<0.0001 and p = 0.0002). Conclusion In this cohort of young Danish mothers, being born premature or with increasingly low birthweight for gestational age was associated with an increased risk of GDM and pre-eclampsia in adulthood, while increasingly high birthweight for gestational age was associated with an increased risk of GDM and a decreased risk of pre-eclampsia. Inappropriate weight for gestational age was a more important risk factor than prematurity. PMID:22479500

Multi-angle Indicators System of Non-point Pollution Source Assessment in Rural Areas: A Case Study Near Taihu Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lei; Ban, Jie; Han, Yu Ting; Yang, Jie; Bi, Jun

2013-04-01

This study aims to identify key environmental risk sources contributing to water eutrophication and to suggest certain risk management strategies for rural areas. The multi-angle indicators included in the risk source assessment system were non-point source pollution, deficient waste treatment, and public awareness of environmental risk, which combined psychometric paradigm methods, the contingent valuation method, and personal interviews to describe the environmental sensitivity of local residents. Total risk values of different villages near Taihu Lake were calculated in the case study, which resulted in a geographic risk map showing which village was the critical risk source of Taihu eutrophication. The increased application of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N), loss vulnerability of pollutant, and a lack of environmental risk awareness led to more serious non-point pollution, especially in rural China. Interesting results revealed by the quotient between the scores of objective risk sources and subjective risk sources showed what should be improved for each study village. More environmental investments, control of agricultural activities, and promotion of environmental education are critical considerations for rural environmental management. These findings are helpful for developing targeted and effective risk management strategies in rural areas.

Increasing risk of prosthetic joint infection after total hip arthroplasty

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background and purpose The risk of revision due to infection after primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) has been reported to be increasing in Norway. We investigated whether this increase is a common feature in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). Materials and methods The study was based on the Nordic Arthroplasty Register Association (NARA) dataset. 432,168 primary THAs from 1995 to 2009 were included (Denmark: 83,853, Finland 78,106, Norway 88,455, and Sweden 181,754). Adjusted survival analyses were performed using Cox regression models with revision due to infection as the endpoint. The effect of risk factors such as the year of surgery, age, sex, diagnosis, type of prosthesis, and fixation were assessed. Results 2,778 (0.6%) of the primary THAs were revised due to infection. Compared to the period 1995–1999, the relative risk (with 95% CI) of revision due to infection was 1.1 (1.0–1.2) in 2000–2004 and 1.6 (1.4–1.7) in 2005–2009. Adjusted cumulative 5–year revision rates due to infection were 0.46% (0.42–0.50) in 1995–1999, 0.54% (0.50–0.58) in 2000–2004, and 0.71% (0.66–0.76) in 2005–2009. The entire increase in risk of revision due to infection was within 1 year of primary surgery, and most notably in the first 3 months. The risk of revision due to infection increased in all 4 countries. Risk factors for revision due to infection were male sex, hybrid fixation, cement without antibiotics, and THA performed due to inflammatory disease, hip fracture, or femoral head necrosis. None of these risk factors increased in incidence during the study period. Interpretation We found increased relative risk of revision and increased cumulative 5–year revision rates due to infection after primary THA during the period 1995–2009. No change in risk factors in the NARA dataset could explain this increase. We believe that there has been an actual increase in the incidence of prosthetic joint infections after THA. PMID:23083433

Can we (actually) assess global risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2013-04-01

The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much needed in a rapidly changing world. This presentation will discuss these challenges and describe a few initial attempts aiming to better understand the interactions between the different components of flood risk with reference to diverse case studies in Europe, Central America, and Africa.

Pooling biomarker data from different studies of disease risk, with a focus on endogenous hormones

PubMed Central

Key, Timothy J; Appleby, Paul N; Allen, Naomi E; Reeves, Gillian K

2010-01-01

Large numbers of observations are needed to provide adequate power in epidemiological studies of biomarkers and cancer risk. However, there are currently few large mature studies with adequate numbers of cases with biospecimens available. Therefore pooling biomarker measures from different studies is a valuable approach, enabling investigators to make robust estimates of risk and to examine associations in subgroups of the population. The ideal situation is to have standardized methods in all studies so that the biomarker data can be pooled in their original units. However, even when the studies do not have standardized methods, as with existing studies on hormones and cancer, a simple approach using study-specific quantiles or percentage increases can provide substantial information on the relationship of the biomarker with cancer risk. PMID:20233851

Sun exposure and risk of melanoma

PubMed Central

Oliveria, S A; Saraiya, M; Geller, A C; Heneghan, M K; Jorgensen, C

2006-01-01

Background As skin cancer education programmes directed to children and adolescents continue to expand, an epidemiological basis for these programmes is necessary to target efforts and plan for further evaluation. Aims To summarise the epidemiological evidence on sun exposure during childhood and adolescence and melanoma risk. Methods A literature review was conducted using Medline (1966 to December 2004) to identify articles relating to sun exposure and melanoma. The review was restricted to studies that included sun exposure information on subjects 18 years of age or younger. Results Migrant studies generally indicate an increased melanoma risk in individuals who spent childhood in sunny geographical locations, and decreasing melanoma risk with older age at arrival. Individuals who resided in geographical locations close to the equator or close to the coast during childhood and/or adolescence have an increased melanoma risk compared to those who lived at higher latitudes or never lived near the coast. The intermittent exposure hypothesis remains controversial; some studies indicate that children and adolescents who received intermittent sun exposure during vacation, recreation, or occupation are at increased melanoma risk as adults, but more recent studies suggest intermittent exposure to have a protective effect. The majority of sunburn studies suggest a positive association between early age sunburn and subsequent risk of melanoma. Conclusion Future research efforts should focus on: (1) clarifying the relation between sun exposure and melanoma; (2) conducting prospective studies; (3) assessing sun exposure during different time periods of life using a reliable and quantitative method; (4) obtaining information on protective measures; and (5) examining the interrelations between ability to tan, propensity to burn, skin type, history of sunburns, timing and pattern of sun exposure, number of nevi, and other host factors in the child and adolescent populations. PMID:16326797

Mortality in US Army Gulf War Veterans Exposed to 1991 Khamisiyah Chemical Munitions Destruction

PubMed Central

Bullman, Tim A.; Mahan, Clare M.; Kang, Han K.; Page, William F.

2005-01-01

Objectives. We investigated whether US Army Gulf War veterans who were potentially exposed to nerve agents during the March 1991 weapons demolitions at Khamisiyah, Iraq, are at increased risk of cause-specific mortality. Methods. The cause-specific mortality of 100487 exposed US Army Gulf War veterans was compared with that of 224980 unexposed US Army Gulf War veterans. Exposure was determined with the Department of Defense 2000 plume model. Relative risk estimates were derived from Cox proportional hazards models. Results. The risks of most disease-related mortality were similar for exposed and unexposed veterans. However, exposed veterans had an increased risk of brain cancer deaths (relative risk [RR]=1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.12, 3.34). The risk of brain cancer death was larger among those exposed 2 or more days than those exposed 1 day when both were compared separately to all unexposed veterans (RR=3.26; 95% CI=1.33, 7.96; RR=1.72; 95% CI=0.95,3.10, respectively). Conclusions. Exposure to chemical munitions at Khamisiyah may be associated with an increased risk of brain cancer death. Additional research is required to confirm this finding. PMID:16043669

A Delta-Sarcoglycan Gene Polymorphism as a Risk Factor for Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

PubMed Central

Garrido-Garduño, Martín H.; Pérez-Martínez, Ramón A.; Ruiz, Victor M.; Herrera-Tepatlán, Esteban; Rodríguez-Cruz, Maricela; Jiménez-Vaca, Ana L.; Minauro-Sanmiguel, Fernando; Salamanca-Gómez, Fabio A.

2012-01-01

Background: The C allele of c.−94C>G polymorphism of the delta-sarcoglycan gene was associated as a risk factor for coronary spasm in Japanese patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). Aim: We evaluated whether the c.−94C>G polymorphism can be a risk factor for HCM in Mexican patients. Methods: The polymorphism was genotyped and the risk was estimated in 35 HCM patients and 145 healthy unrelated individuals. Data of this polymorphism reported in Mexican Amerindian populations were included. Results: The C allele frequency in HCM patients was higher with an odds ratio (OR) of 2.37, and the risk for the CC genotype increased to 5.0. The analysis with Mexican Amerindian populations showed that the C allele frequency was significantly higher in HCM patients with an OR of 2.96 and for CC genotype the risk increased to 7.60. Conclusions: The C allele of the c.−94C>G polymorphism is a risk factor for HCM, which is increased by the Amerindian component and can play an important role in the etiology and progression of disease in Mexican patients. PMID:22524166

Risk of Fatal Cerebrovascular Accidents after External Beam Radiation Therapy for Early Stage Glottic Larynx Cancer

PubMed Central

Swisher-McClure, Samuel; Mitra, Nandita; Lin, Alexander; Ahn, Peter; Wan, Fei; O’Malley, Bert; Weinstein, Gregory S.; Bekelman, Justin E.

2013-01-01

Background This study compared the risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) in patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Methods and Materials Using a competing risks survival analysis, we compared the risk of death due to CVA among patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or EBRT in the SEER database. Results The cumulative incidence of fatal CVA at 15 years was higher in patients receiving EBRT (2.8 %; 95% CI 2.3%–3.4%) compared to surgery (1.5 %; 95% CI 0.8 %–2.3%, p= 0.024). In multivariable competing risks regression models, EBRT remained associated with an increased risk of fatal CVA compared to surgery (adjusted HR 1.75; 95% CI 1.04–2.96, p= 0.037). Conclusion Treatment of early stage glottic larynx cancer with EBRT was associated with a small increase in the risk of late fatal CVA events relative to surgery. PMID:23595858

Comparison of methods for identifying small-for-gestational-age infants at risk of perinatal mortality among obese mothers: a hospital-based cohort study.

PubMed

Hinkle, S N; Sjaarda, L A; Albert, P S; Mendola, P; Grantz, K L

2016-11-01

To assess differences in small-for-gestational age (SGA) classifications for the detection of neonates with increased perinatal mortality risk among obese women and subsequently assess the association between prepregnancy body mass index (BMI) status and SGA. Hospital-based cohort. Twelve US clinical centres (2002-08). A total of 114 626 singleton, nonanomalous pregnancies. Data were collected using electronic medical record abstraction. Relative risks (RR) with 95% CI were estimated. SGA trends (birthweight < 10th centile) classified using population-based (SGA POP ), intrauterine (SGA IU ) and customised (SGA CUST ) references were assessed. The SGA-associated perinatal mortality risk was estimated among obese women. Using the SGA method most associated with perinatal mortality, the association between prepregnancy BMI and SGA was estimated. The overall perinatal mortality prevalence was 0.55% and this increased significantly with increasing BMI (P < 0.01). Among obese women, SGA IU detected the highest proportion of perinatal mortality cases (2.49%). Perinatal mortality was 5.32 times (95% CI 3.72-7.60) more likely among SGA IU neonates than non-SGA IU neonates. This is in comparison with the 3.71-fold (2.49-5.53) and 4.81-fold (3.41-6.80) increased risk observed when SGA POP and SGA CUST were used, respectively. Compared with women of normal weight, overweight women (RR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.78-0.86) and obese women (RR = 0.80; 95% CI 0.75-0.83) had a lower risk for delivering an SGA IU neonate. Among obese women, the intrauterine reference best identified neonates at risk of perinatal mortality. Based on SGA IU , SGA is less common among obese women but these SGA babies are at a high risk of death and remain an important group for surveillance. SGA is less common among obese women but these SGA babies are at a high risk of death. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The effect of PNPLA3 on fibrosis progression and development of hepatocellular carcinoma: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Singal, Amit G; Manjunath, Hema; Yopp, Adam C; Beg, Muhammad S; Marrero, Jorge A; Gopal, Purva; Waljee, Akbar K

2014-03-01

The PNPLA3 rs738409 single-nucleotide polymorphism is known to promote nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), but its association with fibrosis severity and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk is less well-defined. The objectives of this study were to determine the association between PNPLA3 and liver fibrosis severity, HCC risk, and HCC prognosis among patients with liver disease. We performed a systematic literature review using the Medline, PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases through May 2013 and a manual search of national meeting abstracts from 2010 to 2012. Two investigators independently extracted data on patient populations, study methods, and results using standardized forms. Pooled odds ratios (ORs), according to PNPLA3 genotype, were calculated using the DerSimonian and Laird method for a random effects model. Among 24 studies, with 9,915 patients, PNPLA3 was associated with fibrosis severity (OR 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-1.45), with a consistent increased risk across liver disease etiologies. Among nine studies, with 2,937 patients, PNPLA3 was associated with increased risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.12-1.75). On subgroup analysis, increased risk of HCC was demonstrated in patients with NASH or alcohol-related cirrhosis (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.27-2.21) but not in those with other etiologies of cirrhosis (OR 1.33, 95% CI 0.96-1.82). Three studies, with 463 patients, do not support an association between PNPLA3 and HCC prognosis but are limited by heterogeneous outcome measures. For all outcomes, most studies were conducted in homogenous Caucasian populations, and studies among racially diverse cohorts are needed. PNPLA3 is associated with an increased risk of advanced fibrosis among patients with a variety of liver diseases and is an independent risk factor for HCC among patients with nonalcoholic steatohepatitis or alcohol-related cirrhosis.

A theoretical treatment of technical risk in modern propulsion system design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roth, Bryce Alexander

2000-09-01

A prevalent trend in modern aerospace systems is increasing complexity and cost, which in turn drives increased risk. Consequently, there is a clear and present need for the development of formalized methods to analyze the impact of risk on the design of aerospace vehicles. The objective of this work is to develop such a method that enables analysis of risk via a consistent, comprehensive treatment of aerothermodynamic and mass properties aspects of vehicle design. The key elements enabling the creation of this methodology are recent developments in the analytical estimation of work potential based on the second law of thermodynamics. This dissertation develops the theoretical foundation of a vehicle analysis method based on work potential and validates it using the Northrop F-5E with GE J85-GE-21 engines as a case study. Although the method is broadly applicable, emphasis is given to aircraft propulsion applications. Three work potential figures of merit are applied using this method: exergy, available energy, and thrust work potential. It is shown that each possesses unique properties making them useful for specific vehicle analysis tasks, though the latter two are actually special cases of exergy. All three are demonstrated on the analysis of the J85-GE-21 propulsion system, resulting in a comprehensive description of propulsion system thermodynamic loss. This "loss management" method is used to analyze aerodynamic drag loss of the F-5E and is then used in conjunction with the propulsive loss model to analyze the usage of fuel work potential throughout the F-5E design mission. The results clearly show how and where work potential is used during flight and yield considerable insight as to where the greatest opportunity for design improvement is. Next, usage of work potential is translated into fuel weight so that the aerothermodynamic performance of the F-5E can be expressed entirely in terms of vehicle gross weight. This technique is then applied as a means to quantify the impact of engine cycle technologies on the F-5E airframe. Finally, loss management methods are used in conjunction with probabilistic analysis methods to quantify the impact of risk on F-5E aerothermodynamic performance.

Season and region of birth as risk factors for coeliac disease a key to the aetiology?

PubMed Central

Namatovu, Fredinah; Lindkvist, Marie; Olsson, Cecilia; Ivarsson, Anneli; Sandström, Olof

2016-01-01

Background Coeliac disease (CD) incidence has increased in recent decades, characterised by variations according to sex, age at diagnosis, year of birth, month of birth and region of birth. Genetic susceptibility and exposure to gluten are the necessary factors in CD aetiology, although several environmental factors are considered. Methods A nationwide prospective cohort longitudinal study was conducted consisting of 1 912 204 children aged 0–14.9 years born in Sweden from 1991 to 2009. A total of 6569 children were diagnosed with biopsy-verified CD from 47 paediatric departments. Using Cox regression, we examined the association between CD diagnosis and season of birth, region of birth and year of birth. Results Overall, CD risk was higher for children born during spring, summer and autumn as compared with children born during winter: adjusted HR for spring 1.08 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.16), summer 1.10 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.18) and autumn 1.10 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.18). Increased CD risk was highest if born in the south, followed by central Sweden when compared with children born in northern Sweden. Children diagnosed at <2 years had an increased CD risk if born in spring while those diagnosed at 2–14.9 years the risk was increased for summer and autumn births. The birth cohort of 1991–1996 had increased CD risk if born during spring, for the 1997–2002 birth cohort the risk increased for summer and autumn births, while for the birth cohort of 2003–2009 the risk was increased if born during autumn. Conclusions Season of birth and region of birth are independently and jointly associated with increased risk of developing CD during the first 15 years of life. Seasonal variation in infectious load is the likely explanation. PMID:27528621

Risk Factors for Vascular Occlusive Events and Death Due to Bleeding in Trauma Patients; an Analysis of the CRASH-2 Cohort

PubMed Central

Pealing, Louise; Perel, Pablo; Prieto-Merino, David; Roberts, Ian

2012-01-01

Background Vascular occlusive events can complicate recovery following trauma. We examined risk factors for venous and arterial vascular occlusive events in trauma patients and the extent to which the risk of vascular occlusive events varies with the severity of bleeding. Methods and Findings We conducted a cohort analysis using data from a large international, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial (The CRASH-2 trial) [1]. We studied the association between patient demographic and physiological parameters at hospital admission and the risk of vascular occlusive events. To assess the extent to which risk of vascular occlusive events varies with severity of bleeding, we constructed a prognostic model for the risk of death due to bleeding and assessed the relationship between risk of death due to bleeding and risk of vascular occlusive events. There were 20,127 trauma patients with outcome data including 204 (1.01%) patients with a venous event (pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis) and 200 (0.99%) with an arterial event (myocardial infarction or stroke). There were 81 deaths due to vascular occlusive events. Increasing age, decreasing systolic blood pressure, increased respiratory rates, longer central capillary refill times, higher heart rates and lower Glasgow Coma Scores (all p<0.02) were strong risk factors for venous and arterial vascular occlusive events. Patients with more severe bleeding as assessed by predicted risk of haemorrhage death had a greatly increased risk for all types of vascular occlusive event (all p<0.001). Conclusions Patients with severe traumatic bleeding are at greatly increased risk of venous and arterial vascular occlusive events. Older age and blunt trauma are also risk factors for vascular occlusive events. Effective treatment of bleeding may reduce venous and arterial vascular occlusive complications in trauma patients. PMID:23251374

The Community-based Participatory Intervention Effect of “HIV-RAAP”

PubMed Central

Yancey, Elleen M.; Mayberry, Robert; Armstrong-Mensah, Elizabeth; Collins, David; Goodin, Lisa; Cureton, Shava; Trammell, Ella H.; Yuan, Keming

2012-01-01

Objectives To design and test HIV-RAAP (HIV/AIDS Risk Reduction Among Heterosexually Active African American Men and Women: A Risk Reduction Prevention Intervention) a coeducational, culture- and gender-sensitive community-based participatory HIV risk reduction intervention. Methods A community-based participatory research process included intervention development and implementation of a 7-session coeducational curriculum conducted over 7 consecutive weeks. Results The results indicated a significant intervention effect on reducing sexual behavior risk (P=0.02), improving HIV risk knowledge (P=0.006), and increasing sexual partner conversations about HIV risk reduction (P= 0.001). Conclusions The HIV-RAAP intervention impacts key domains of heterosexual HIV transmission. PMID:22488405

Crohn's disease: increased mortality 10 years after diagnosis in a Europe‐wide population based cohort

PubMed Central

Wolters, F L; Russel, M G; Sijbrandij, J; Schouten, L J; Odes, S; Riis, L; Munkholm, P; Bodini, P; O'Morain, C; Mouzas, I A; Tsianos, E; Vermeire, S; Monteiro, E; Limonard, C; Vatn, M; Fornaciari, G; Pereira, S; Moum, B; Stockbrügger, R W

2006-01-01

Background No previous correlation between phenotype at diagnosis of Crohn's disease (CD) and mortality has been performed. We assessed the predictive value of phenotype at diagnosis on overall and disease related mortality in a European cohort of CD patients. Methods Overall and disease related mortality were recorded 10 years after diagnosis in a prospectively assembled, uniformly diagnosed European population based inception cohort of 380 CD patients diagnosed between 1991 and 1993. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for geographic and phenotypic subgroups at diagnosis. Results Thirty seven deaths were observed in the entire cohort whereas 21.5 deaths were expected (SMR 1.85 (95% CI 1.30–2.55)). Mortality risk was significantly increased in both females (SMR 1.93 (95% CI 1.10–3.14)) and males (SMR 1.79 (95% CI 1.11–2.73)). Patients from northern European centres had a significant overall increased mortality risk (SMR 2.04 (95% CI 1.32–3.01)) whereas a tendency towards increased overall mortality risk was also observed in the south (SMR 1.55 (95% CI 0.80–2.70)). Mortality risk was increased in patients with colonic disease location and with inflammatory disease behaviour at diagnosis. Mortality risk was also increased in the age group above 40 years at diagnosis for both total and CD related causes. Excess mortality was mainly due to gastrointestinal causes that were related to CD. Conclusions This European multinational population based study revealed an increased overall mortality risk in CD patients 10 years after diagnosis, and age above 40 years at diagnosis was found to be the sole factor associated with increased mortality risk. PMID:16150857

Analysing the relationship between family planning workers' contact and contraceptive switching in rural Bangladesh using multilevel modelling.

PubMed

Hossain, Mian B

2005-09-01

With a population of over 131 million and a fertility rate of 29.9 per 1000, population growth constitutes a primary threat to continued economic growth and development in Bangladesh. One strategy that has been used to cease further increases in fertility in Bangladesh involves using family planning outreach workers who travel throughout rural and urban areas educating women regarding contraceptive alternatives. This study uses a longitudinal database to assess the impact of family planning outreach workers' contact upon contraceptive switching and upon the risk of an unintended pregnancy. Using longitudinal data on contraceptive use from the Operations Research Project (ORP) of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research (ICDDR,B) in Bangladesh, multiple decrement life table analysis and multilevel, discrete-time competing risk hazards models were used to estimate the cumulative probabilities of switching to an alternative form of contraceptive use after a woman engaged in a discussion with an outreach worker. After controlling for the effects of socio-demographic and economic characteristics, the analysis revealed that family planning outreach workers' contact with women significantly decreases the risk of transitioning to the non-use of contraceptives. This contact also reduces the risk of an unintended pregnancy. Family planning workers' contact with women is associated with the increased risk of a woman switching from one modern method to another modern method. The study results indicate that side-effects and other method-related reasons are the two primary reasons for contraceptive discontinuation in rural Bangladesh.

Drugs and Alcohol: Their Relative Crash Risk

PubMed Central

Romano, Eduardo; Torres-Saavedra, Pedro; Voas, Robert B.; Lacey, John H.

2014-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine (a) whether among sober (blood alcohol concentration [BAC] = .00%) drivers, being drug positive increases the drivers' risk of being killed in a fatal crash; (b) whether among drinking (BAC > .00%) drivers, being drug positive increases the drivers' risk of being killed in a fatal crash; and (c) whether alcohol and other drugs interact in increasing crash risk. Method: We compared BACs for the 2006, 2007, and 2008 crash cases drawn from the U.S. Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) with control drug and blood alcohol data from participants in the 2007 U.S. National Roadside Survey. Only FARS drivers from states with drug information on 80% or more of the drivers who also participated in the 2007 National Roadside Survey were selected. Results: For both sober and drinking drivers, being positive for a drug was found to increase the risk of being fatally injured. When the drug-positive variable was separated into marijuana and other drugs, only the latter was found to contribute significantly to crash risk. In all cases, the contribution of drugs other than alcohol to crash risk was significantly lower than that produced by alcohol. Conclusions: Although overall, drugs contribute to crash risk regardless of the presence of alcohol, such a contribution is much lower than that by alcohol. The lower contribution of drugs other than alcohol to crash risk relative to that of alcohol suggests caution in focusing too much on drugged driving, potentially diverting scarce resources from curbing drunk driving. PMID:24411797

Adulthood Stressors, History of Childhood Adversity, and Risk of Perpetration of Intimate Partner Violence

PubMed Central

Roberts, Andrea L.; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Conron, Kerith J.; Koenen, Karestan C.

2010-01-01

Background Over half a million U.S. women and more than 100,000 men are treated for injuries from intimate partner violence (IPV) annually, making IPV perpetration a major public health problem. However, little is known about causes of perpetration across the life course. Purpose This paper examines the role of “stress sensitization,” whereby adult stressors increase risk for IPV perpetration most strongly in people with a history of childhood adversity. Methods The study investigated a possible interaction effect between adulthood stressors and childhood adversities in risk of IPV perpetration, specifically, whether the difference in risk of IPV perpetration associated with past-year stressors varied by history of exposure to childhood adversity. Analyses were conducted in 2010 using de-identified data from 34,653 U.S. adults from the 2004–2005 follow-up wave of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Results There was a significant stress sensitization effect. For men with high-level childhood adversity, past-year stressors were associated with an 8.8% increased risk of perpetrating compared to a 2.3% increased risk among men with low-level adversity. Women with high-level childhood adversity had a 14.3% increased risk compared with a 2.5% increased risk in the low-level adversity group. Conclusions Individuals with recent stressors and histories of childhood adversity are at particularly elevated risk of IPV perpetration; therefore, prevention efforts should target this population. Treatment programs for IPV perpetrators, which have not been effective in reducing risk of perpetrating, may benefit from further investigating the role of stress and stress reactivity in perpetration. PMID:21238860

Stomach Cancer Risk After Treatment for Hodgkin Lymphoma

PubMed Central

Morton, Lindsay M.; Dores, Graça M.; Curtis, Rochelle E.; Lynch, Charles F.; Stovall, Marilyn; Hall, Per; Gilbert, Ethel S.; Hodgson, David C.; Storm, Hans H.; Johannesen, Tom Børge; Smith, Susan A.; Weathers, Rita E.; Andersson, Michael; Fossa, Sophie D.; Hauptmann, Michael; Holowaty, Eric J.; Joensuu, Heikki; Kaijser, Magnus; Kleinerman, Ruth A.; Langmark, Frøydis; Pukkala, Eero; Vaalavirta, Leila; van den Belt-Dusebout, Alexandra W.; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Travis, Lois B.; Aleman, Berthe M.; van Leeuwen, Flora E.

2013-01-01

Purpose Treatment-related stomach cancer is an important cause of morbidity and mortality among the growing number of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors, but risks associated with specific HL treatments are unclear. Patients and Methods We conducted an international case-control study of stomach cancer nested in a cohort of 19,882 HL survivors diagnosed from 1953 to 2003, including 89 cases and 190 matched controls. For each patient, we quantified cumulative doses of specific alkylating agents (AAs) and reconstructed radiation dose to the stomach tumor location. Results Stomach cancer risk increased with increasing radiation dose to the stomach (Ptrend < .001) and with increasing number of AA-containing chemotherapy cycles (Ptrend = .02). Patients who received both radiation to the stomach ≥ 25 Gy and high-dose procarbazine (≥ 5,600 mg/m2) had strikingly elevated stomach cancer risk (25 cases, two controls; odds ratio [OR], 77.5; 95% CI, 14.7 to 1452) compared with those who received radiation < 25 Gy and procarbazine < 5,600 mg/m2 (Pinteraction < .001). Risk was also elevated (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.3 to 6.4) among patients who received radiation to the stomach ≥ 25 Gy but procarbazine < 5,600 mg/m2; however, no procarbazine-related risk was evident with radiation < 25 Gy. Treatment with dacarbazine also increased stomach cancer risk (12 cases, nine controls; OR, 8.8; 95% CI, 2.1 to 46.6), after adjustment for radiation and procarbazine doses. Conclusion Patients with HL who received subdiaphragmatic radiotherapy had dose-dependent increased risk of stomach cancer, with marked risks for patients who also received chemotherapy containing high-dose procarbazine. For current patients, risks and benefits of exposure to both procarbazine and subdiaphragmatic radiotherapy should be weighed carefully. For patients treated previously, GI symptoms should be evaluated promptly. PMID:23980092

The Long and Short Term Impact of Elevated Body Mass Index on Risk of New Atrial Fibrillation in the Women’s Health Study

PubMed Central

Tedrow, Usha B; Conen, David; Ridker, Paul M; Cook, Nancy R; Koplan, Bruce A; Manson, JoAnn E; Buring, Julie E; Albert, Christine M

2010-01-01

Objectives To characterize the relationship between changes in body mass index (BMI) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large cohort of women. Background Obesity and AF are increasing public health problems. The importance of dynamic obesity-associated AF risk is uncertain, and mediators are not well characterized. Methods Cases of AF were confirmed by medical record review in 34,309 participants in the Women’s Health Study. Baseline and updated measures of BMI were obtained from periodic questionnaires. Results Over 12.9 +/− 1.9 years of follow-up, 834 AF events were confirmed. BMI was linearly associated with AF risk, with a 4.7% (95% CI 3.4, 6.1, p<0.0001) increase in risk with each kg/m2. Adjustment for inflammatory markers minimally attenuated this risk. When updated measures of BMI were utilized to estimate dynamic risk, overweight (HR 1.22 95%CI 1.02, 1.45, p=0.03) and obesity (HR 1.65 95%CI 1.36, 2.00, p<0.0001) were associated with adjusted short term elevations in AF risk. Participants becoming obese during the first 60 months had a 41% adjusted increase in risk of developing AF (p=0.02) compared to those maintaining BMI <30 kg/m2. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased over time. The adjusted proportion of incident AF attributable to short term elevations in BMI was substantial (18.3%). Conclusions In this population of apparently healthy women, BMI was associated with short and long term elevations in AF risk, accounting for a large proportion of incident AF independent of traditional risk factors. A strategy of weight control may reduce the increasing incidence of AF. PMID:20488302

Additively Manufactured Metals in Oxygen Systems Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tylka, Jonathan

2015-01-01

Metals produced by additive manufacturing methods, such as Powder Bed Fusion Technology, are now mature enough to be considered for qualification in human spaceflight oxygen systems. The mechanical properties of metals produced through AM processes are being systematically studied. However, it is unknown whether AM metals in oxygen applications may present an increased risk of flammability or ignition as compared to wrought metals of the same metallurgical composition due to increased porosity. Per NASA-STD-6001B materials to be used in oxygen system applications shall be based on flammability and combustion test data, followed by a flammability assessment. Without systematic flammability and ignition testing in oxygen there is no credible method for NASA to accurately evaluate the risk of using AM metals in oxygen systems.

Evaluating Approaches to a Coupled Model for Arctic Coastal Erosion, Infrastructure Risk, and Associated Coastal Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, J. M.; Bull, D. L.; Jones, C.; Roberts, J.; Thomas, M. A.

2016-12-01

Arctic coastlines are receding at accelerated rates, putting existing and future activities in the developing coastal Arctic environment at extreme risk. For example, at Oliktok Long Range Radar Site, erosion that was not expected until 2040 was reached as of 2014 (Alaska Public Media). As the Arctic Ocean becomes increasingly ice-free, rates of coastal erosion will likely continue to increase as (a) increased ice-free waters generate larger waves, (b) sea levels rise, and (c) coastal permafrost soils warm and lose strength/cohesion. Due to the complex and rapidly varying nature of the Arctic region, little is known about the increasing waves, changing circulation, permafrost soil degradation, and the response of the coastline to changes in these combined conditions. However, as scientific focus has been shifting towards the polar regions, Arctic science is rapidly advancing, increasing our understanding of complex Arctic processes. Our present understanding allows us to begin to develop and evaluate the coupled models necessary for the prediction of coastal erosion in support of Arctic risk assessments. What are the best steps towards the development of a coupled model for Arctic coastal erosion? This work focuses on our current understanding of Arctic conditions and identifying the tools and methods required to develop an integrated framework capable of accurately predicting Arctic coastline erosion and assessing coastal risk and hazards. We will present a summary of the state-of-the-science, and identify existing tools and methods required to develop an integrated diagnostic and monitoring framework capable of accurately predicting and assessing Arctic coastline erosion, infrastructure risk, and coastal hazards. The summary will describe the key coastal processes to simulate, appropriate models to use, effective methods to couple existing models, and identify gaps in knowledge that require further attention to make progress in our understanding of Arctic coastal erosion. * Co-authors listed in alphabetical order. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Engineered nanoconstructs for the multiplexed and sensitive detection of high-risk pathogens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Youngmin; Kim, Ji-Eun; Jeong, Yoon; Lee, Kwan Hong; Hwang, Jangsun; Hong, Jongwook; Park, Hansoo; Choi, Jonghoon

2016-01-01

Many countries categorize the causative agents of severe infectious diseases as high-risk pathogens. Given their extreme infectivity and potential to be used as biological weapons, a rapid and sensitive method for detection of high-risk pathogens (e.g., Bacillus anthracis, Francisella tularensis, Yersinia pestis, and Vaccinia virus) is highly desirable. Here, we report the construction of a novel detection platform comprising two units: (1) magnetic beads separately conjugated with multiple capturing antibodies against four different high-risk pathogens for simple and rapid isolation, and (2) genetically engineered apoferritin nanoparticles conjugated with multiple quantum dots and detection antibodies against four different high-risk pathogens for signal amplification. For each high-risk pathogen, we demonstrated at least 10-fold increase in sensitivity compared to traditional lateral flow devices that utilize enzyme-based detection methods. Multiplexed detection of high-risk pathogens in a sample was also successful by using the nanoconstructs harboring the dye molecules with fluorescence at different wavelengths. We ultimately envision the use of this novel nanoprobe detection platform in future applications that require highly sensitive on-site detection of high-risk pathogens.

Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

PubMed

Alyami, Hani; Yang, Zaili; Riahi, Ramin; Bonsall, Stephen; Wang, Jin

2016-08-13

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variable Lifting Index for Manual-Lifting Risk Assessment: A Preliminary Validation Study.

PubMed

Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Cortinovis, Ivan

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the new Variable Lifting Index (VLI) method, theoretically based on the Revised National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health [NIOSH] Lifting Equation (RNLE), in predicting the risk of acute low-back pain (LBP) in the past 12 months. A new risk variable termed the VLI for assessing variable manual lifting has been developed, but there has been no epidemiological study that evaluates the relationship between the VLI and LBP. A sample of 3,402 study participants from 16 companies in different industrial sectors was analyzed. Of the participants, 2,374 were in the risk exposure group involving manual materials handling (MMH), and 1,028 were in the control group without MMH. The VLI was calculated for each participant in the exposure group using a systematic approach. LBP information was collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. The risk of acute LBP was estimated by calculating the odds ratio (OR) between levels of the risk exposure and the control group using a logistic regression analysis. Both crude and adjusted ORs for body mass index, gender, and age were analyzed. Both crude and adjusted ORs showed a dose-response relationship. As the levels of VLI increased, the risk of LBP increased. This risk relationship existed when VLI was greater than 1. The VLI method can be used to assess the risk of acute LBP, although further studies are needed to confirm the outcome and to define better VLI categories. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Cancer risk to First Nations’ people from exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons near in-situ bitumen extraction in Cold Lake, Alberta

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Alberta oil sands are an important economic resource in Canada, but there is growing concern over the environmental and health effects as a result of contaminant releases and exposures. Recent studies have shown a temporal and spatial trend of increased polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in sediments and snowpack near the Athabasca oil sands operations (i.e., open pit mines), but thus far similar studies have not been done for the Cold Lake region where steam assisted gravity drainage (in situ) extraction is performed. Methods Many PAHs are known mutagenic carcinogens, and this study measured soil and atmospheric concentrations of PAHs in the Cold Lake region to assess the excess lifetime cancer risk posed to the First Nations’ inhabitants of the region. Using both deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment methods, excess lifetime cancer risks were calculated for exposures from inhalation or inadvertent soil ingestion. Results The mean excess cancer risk for First Nations’ people through ingestion who engage in traditional wilderness activities in the Cold Lake region was 0.02 new cases per 100,000 with an upper 95% risk level of 0.07 cases per 100,000. Exposure to PAHs via inhalation revealed a maximum excess lifetime cancer risk of less than 0.1 cases per 100,000. Conclusions Excess lifetime risk values below 1 case per 100,000 is generally considered negligible, thus our analyses did not demonstrate any significant increases in cancer risks associated with PAH exposures for First Nations people inhabiting the Cold Lake region. PMID:24520827

Changes in association between previous therapeutic abortion and preterm birth in Scotland, 1980 to 2008: a historical cohort study.

PubMed

Oliver-Williams, Clare; Fleming, Michael; Monteath, Kirsten; Wood, Angela M; Smith, Gordon C S

2013-01-01

Numerous studies have demonstrated that therapeutic termination of pregnancy (abortion) is associated with an increased risk of subsequent preterm birth. However, the literature is inconsistent, and methods of abortion have changed dramatically over the last 30 years. We hypothesized that the association between previous abortion and the risk of preterm first birth changed in Scotland between 1 January 1980 and 31 December 2008. We studied linked Scottish national databases of births and perinatal deaths. We analysed the risk of preterm birth in relation to the number of previous abortions in 732,719 first births (≥24 wk), adjusting for maternal characteristics. The risk (adjusted odds ratio [95% CI]) of preterm birth was modelled using logistic regression, and associations were expressed for a one-unit increase in the number of previous abortions. Previous abortion was associated with an increased risk of preterm birth (1.12 [1.09-1.16]). When analysed by year of delivery, the association was strongest in 1980-1983 (1.32 [1.21-1.43]), progressively declined between 1984 and 1999, and was no longer apparent in 2000-2003 (0.98 [0.91-1.05]) or 2004-2008 (1.02 [0.95-1.09]). A statistical test for interaction between previous abortion and year was highly statistically significant (p<0.001). Analysis of data for abortions among nulliparous women in Scotland 1992-2008 demonstrated that the proportion that were surgical without use of cervical pre-treatment decreased from 31% to 0.4%, and that the proportion of medical abortions increased from 18% to 68%. Previous abortion was a risk factor for spontaneous preterm birth in Scotland in the 1980s and 1990s, but the association progressively weakened and disappeared altogether by 2000. These changes were paralleled by increasing use of medical abortion and cervical pre-treatment prior to surgical abortion. Although it is plausible that the two trends were related, we could not test this directly as the data on the method of prior abortions were not linked to individuals in the cohort. However, we speculate that modernising abortion methods may be an effective long-term strategy to reduce global rates of preterm birth.

Assessing ergonomic risks of software: Development of the SEAT.

PubMed

Peres, S Camille; Mehta, Ranjana K; Ritchey, Paul

2017-03-01

Software utilizing interaction designs that require extensive dragging or clicking of icons may increase users' risks for upper extremity cumulative trauma disorders. The purpose of this research is to develop a Self-report Ergonomic Assessment Tool (SEAT) for assessing the risks of software interaction designs and facilitate mitigation of those risks. A 28-item self-report measure was developed by combining and modifying items from existing industrial ergonomic tools. Data were collected from 166 participants after they completed four different tasks that varied by method of input (touch or keyboard and mouse) and type of task (selecting or typing). Principal component analysis found distinct factors associated with stress (i.e., demands) and strain (i.e., response). Repeated measures analyses of variance showed that participants could discriminate the different strain induced by the input methods and tasks. However, participants' ability to discriminate between the stressors associated with that strain was mixed. Further validation of the SEAT is necessary but these results indicate that the SEAT may be a viable method of assessing ergonomics risks presented by software design. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Meat mutagens and breast cancer in postmenopausal women -a cohort analysis

PubMed Central

Wu, Kana; Sinha, Rashmi; Holmes, Michelle D.; Giovannucci, Edward; Willett, Walter; Cho, Eunyoung

2011-01-01

Background Mutagenic compounds produced when meats are cooked at high temperatures have been hypothesized to increase risk of breast cancer. Methods We examined the association between intakes of the heterocyclic amines (HCAs) MeIQx (2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo (4,5,-f) quinoxaline), PhIP (2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo (4,5-b) pyridine), DiMeIQx (2-amino-3,4,8-trimethylimidazo (4,5,-f)) and meat-derived mutagenic activity (MDM) and risk of breast cancer using a cooking method questionnaire administered in 1996 in the Nurses Health Study. Between 1996 and 2006, 2,317 breast cancer cases were diagnosed during 533,618 person years. Results Higher intake of HCAs or MDM was not associated with elevated risk of breast cancer (multivariate relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for the highest vs. lowest quintile: MeIQx: 0.90 (0.79–1.03); PhIP: 0.92 (0.80–1.05); DiMeIQx: 0.92 (0.80–1.05) and MDM: 0.98 (0.85–1.12)). HCA or MDM were not associated with estrogen receptor positive/progesterone positive breast cancer risk either. There was some suggestion of a decreased risk of estrogen receptor negative/progesterone receptor negative breast cancer with higher intakes of MeIQx, DiMeIQx and PhIP, but none of the associations were statistically significant. There was little evidence for an interaction between intake of cruciferous vegetables and HCA or MDM intake and risk of breast cancer. Conclusion Higher consumption of mutagens from meats cooked at higher temperature and longer duration was not associated with increased risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. Impact Overall prospective data including results from our study do not provide support for a substantial increase in risk of breast cancer with higher intake of HCAs. PMID:20447922

Validation of Association of Genetic Variants at 10q with PSA Levels in Men at High Risk for Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Chang, Bao-Li; Hughes, Lucinda; Chen, David Y. T.; Gross, Laura; Ruth, Karen; Giri, Veda N.

2013-01-01

Objectives Men with a family history of prostate cancer and African American men are at increased risk for prostate cancer and stand to benefit from individualized interpretation of PSA to guide screening strategies. The purpose of this study was to validate six previously identified markers among high-risk men enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program - a prostate cancer screening study. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP includes men ages 35–69 years with a family history of prostate cancer, any African American male regardless of family history, and men with known BRCA gene mutations. GWAS markers assessed included rs2736098 (5p15.33), rs10993994 (10q11), rs10788160 (10q26), rs11067228 (12q24), rs4430796 (17q12), and rs17632542 (19q13.33). Genotyping methods included either Taqman® SNP Genotyping Assay (Applied Biosystems) or pyrosequencing. Linear regression models were used to evaluate the association between individual markers and log-transformed baseline PSA levels, while adjusting for potential confounders. Results 707 participants (37% Caucasian, 63% African American) with clinical and genotype data were included in the analysis. Rs10788160 (10q26) strongly associated with PSA levels among high-risk Caucasian participants (p<0.01), with a 33.2% increase in PSA level with each A-allele carried. Furthermore, rs10993994 (10q11) demonstrated an association to PSA level (p=0.03) in high-risk Caucasian men, with a 15% increase in PSA with each T-allele carried. A PSA adjustment model based on allele carrier status at rs10788160 and rs10993994 is proposed specific to high-risk Caucasian men. Conclusion Genetic variation at 10q may be particularly important in personalizing interpretation of PSA for high-risk Caucasian men. Such information may have clinical relevance in shared decision-making and individualized prostate cancer screening strategies for high-risk Caucasian men. Further study is warranted. PMID:23937305

A reanalysis of cancer mortality in Canadian nuclear workers (1956–1994) based on revised exposure and cohort data

PubMed Central

Zablotska, L B; Lane, R S D; Thompson, P A

2014-01-01

Background: A 15-country study of nuclear workers reported significantly increased radiation-related risks of all cancers excluding leukaemia, with Canadian data a major factor behind the pooled results. We analysed mortality (1956–1994) in the updated Canadian cohort and provided revised risk estimates. Methods: Employment records were searched to verify and revise exposure data and to restore missing socioeconomic status. Excess relative risks per sievert (ERR/Sv) of recorded radiation dose and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Poisson regression. Results: A significant heterogeneity of the dose–response for solid cancer was identified (P=0.02), with 3088 early (1956–1964) Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) workers having a significant increase (ERR/Sv=7.87, 95% CI: 1.88, 19.5), and no evidence of radiation risk for 42 228 workers employed by three nuclear power plant companies and post-1964 AECL (ERR/Sv=−1.20, 95% CI: <−1.47, 2.39). Radiation risks of leukaemia were negative in early AECL workers and non-significantly increased in other workers. In analyses with separate terms for tritium and gamma doses, there was no evidence of increased risk from tritium exposure. All workers had mortality lower than the general population. Conclusion: Significantly increased risks for early AECL workers are most likely due to incomplete transfer of AECL dose records to the National Dose Registry. Analyses of the remainder of the Canadian nuclear workers (93.2%) provided no evidence of increased risk, but the risk estimate was compatible with estimates that form the basis of radiation protection standards. Study findings suggest that the revised Canadian cohort, with the exclusion of early AECL workers, would likely have an important effect on the 15-country pooled risk estimate of radiation-related risks of all cancer excluding leukaemia by substantially reducing the size of the point estimate and its significance. PMID:24231946

Big data and ergonomics methods: A new paradigm for tackling strategic transport safety risks.

PubMed

Walker, Guy; Strathie, Ailsa

2016-03-01

Big data collected from On-Train Data Recorders (OTDR) has the potential to address the most important strategic risks currently faced by rail operators and authorities worldwide. These risk issues are increasingly orientated around human performance and have proven resistant to existing approaches. This paper presents a number of proof of concept demonstrations to show that long standing ergonomics methods can be driven from big data, and succeed in providing insight into human performance in a novel way. Over 300 ergonomics methods were reviewed and a smaller sub-set selected for proof-of-concept development using real on-train recorder data. From this are derived nine candidate Human Factors Leading Indicators which map on to all of the psychological precursors of the identified risks. This approach has the potential to make use of a significantly underused source of data, and enable rail industry stakeholders to intervene sooner to address human performance issues that, via the methods presented in this paper, are clearly manifest in on-train data recordings. The intersection of psychological knowledge, ergonomics methods and big data creates an important new framework for driving new insights. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Dietary fat intake and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer: a meta-analysis of 6,689 subjects from 8 observational studies.

PubMed

Huncharek, M; Kupelnick, B

2001-01-01

The etiology of epithelial ovarian cancer is unknown. Prior work suggests that high dietary fat intake is associated with an increased risk of this tumor, although this association remains speculative. A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate this suspected relationship. Using previously described methods, a protocol was developed for a meta-analysis examining the association between high vs. low dietary fat intake and the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer. Literature search techniques, study inclusion criteria, and statistical procedures were prospectively defined. Data from observational studies were pooled using a general variance-based meta-analytic method employing confidence intervals (CI) previously described by Greenland. The outcome of interest was a summary relative risk (RRs) reflecting the risk of ovarian cancer associated with high vs. low dietary fat intake. Sensitivity analyses were performed when necessary to evaluate any observed statistical heterogeneity. The literature search yielded 8 observational studies enrolling 6,689 subjects. Data were stratified into three dietary fat intake categories: total fat, animal fat, and saturated fat. Initial tests for statistical homogeneity demonstrated that hospital-based studies accounted for observed heterogeneity possibly because of selection bias. Accounting for this, an RRs was calculated for high vs. low total fat intake, yielding a value of 1.24 (95% CI = 1.07-1.43), a statistically significant result. That is, high total fat intake is associated with a 24% increased risk of ovarian cancer development. The RRs for high saturated fat intake was 1.20 (95% CI = 1.04-1.39), suggesting a 20% increased risk of ovarian cancer among subjects with these dietary habits. High vs. low animal fat diet gave an RRs of 1.70 (95% CI = 1.43-2.03), consistent with a statistically significant 70% increased ovarian cancer risk. High dietary fat intake appears to represent a significant risk factor for the development of ovarian cancer. The magnitude of this risk associated with total fat and saturated fat is rather modest. Ovarian cancer risk associated with high animal fat intake appears significantly greater than that associated with the other types of fat intake studied, although this requires confirmation via larger analyses. Further work is needed to clarify factors that may modify the effects of dietary fat in vivo.

Trends in the knowledge, attitudes and practices of travel risk groups towards prevention of malaria: results from the Dutch Schiphol Airport Survey 2002 to 2009

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Previous studies investigating the travellers’ knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) profile indicated an important educational need among those travelling to risk destinations. Initiatives to improve such education should target all groups of travellers, including business travellers, those visiting friends and relatives (VFRs), and elderly travellers. Methods In the years 2002 to 2009, a questionnaire-based survey was conducted at the Dutch Schiphol Airport with the aim to study trends in KAP of travel risk groups towards prevention of malaria. The risk groups last-minute travellers, solo-travellers, business travellers, VFRs and elderly travellers were specifically studied. Results A total of 3,045 respondents were included in the survey. Travellers to destinations with a high risk for malaria had significantly more accurate risk perceptions (knowledge) than travellers to low-risk destinations. The relative risk for malaria in travellers to high-risk destinations was probably mitigated by higher protection rates against malaria as compared with travellers to low risk destinations. There were no significant differences in intended risk-taking behaviour. Trend analyses showed a significant change over time in attitude towards more risk-avoiding behaviour and towards higher protection rates against malaria in travellers to high-risk destinations. The KAP profile of last-minute travellers substantially increased their relative risk for malaria, which contrasts to the slight increase in relative risk of solo travellers, business travellers and VFRs for malaria. Conclusions The results of this sequential cohort survey in Dutch travellers suggest an annual 1.8% increase in protection rates against malaria coinciding with an annual 2.5% decrease in intended risk-seeking behaviour. This improvement may reflect the continuous efforts of travel health advice providers to create awareness and to propagate safe and healthy travel. The KAP profile of last-minute travellers, in particular, substantially increased their relative risk for malaria, underlining the continuous need for personal protective measures and malaria chemoprophylaxis for this risk group. PMID:22642661

Evaluation of the relationship between plasma lipids and abdominal aortic aneurysm: A Mendelian randomization study.

PubMed

Weng, Lu-Chen; Roetker, Nicholas S; Lutsey, Pamela L; Alonso, Alvaro; Guan, Weihua; Pankow, James S; Folsom, Aaron R; Steffen, Lyn M; Pankratz, Nathan; Tang, Weihong

2018-01-01

Studies have reported that higher circulating levels of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and lower of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol may be associated with increased risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). Whether dyslipidemia causes AAA is still unclear and is potentially testable using a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. We investigated the associations between blood lipids and AAA using two-sample MR analysis with SNP-lipids association estimates from a published genome-wide association study of blood lipids (n = 188,577) and SNP-AAA association estimates from European Americans (EAs) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (n = 8,793). We used inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR as the primary method and MR-Egger regression and weighted median MR estimation as sensitivity analyses. Over a median of 22.7 years of follow-up, 338 of 8,793 ARIC participants experienced incident clinical AAA. Using the IVW method, we observed positive associations of plasma LDL cholesterol and TC with the risk of AAA (odds ratio (OR) = 1.55, P = 0.02 for LDL cholesterol and OR = 1.61, P = 0.01 for TC per 1 standard deviation of lipid increment). Using the MR-Egger regression and weighted median methods, we were able to validate the association of AAA risk with TC, although the associations were less consistent for LDL cholesterol due to wider confidence intervals. Triglycerides and HDL cholesterol were not associated with AAA in any of the MR methods. Assuming instrumental variable assumptions are satisfied, our finding suggests that higher plasma TC and LDL cholesterol are causally associated with the increased risk of AAA in EAs.

The SLUScore: A Novel Method for Detecting Hazardous Hypotension in Adult Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgical Procedures

PubMed Central

Yuan, Hui; Dryden, Jefferson K.; Strehl, Kristen E.; Cywinski, Jacek B.; Ehrenfeld, Jesse M.; Bromley, Pamela

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: It has been suggested that longer-term postsurgical outcome may be adversely affected by less than severe hypotension under anesthesia. However, evidence-based guidelines are unavailable. The present study was designed to develop a method for identifying patients at increased risk of death within 30 days in association with the severity and duration of intraoperative hypotension. METHODS: Intraoperative mean arterial blood pressure recordings of 152,445 adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery were analyzed for periods of time accumulated below each one of the 31 thresholds between 75 and 45 mm Hg (hypotensive exposure times). In a development cohort of 35,904 patients, the associations were sought between each of these 31 cumulative hypotensive exposure times and 30-day postsurgical mortality. On the basis of covariable-adjusted percentage increases in the odds of mortality per minute elapsed of hypotensive exposure time, certain sets of exposure time limits were calculated that portended certain percentage increases in the odds of mortality. A novel risk-scoring method was conceived by counting the number of exposure time limits that had been exceeded within each respective set, one of them being called the SLUScore. The validity of this new method in identifying patients at increased risk was tested in a multicenter validation cohort consisting of 116,541 patients from Cleveland Clinic, Vanderbilt and Saint Louis Universities. Data were expressed as 95% confidence interval, P < .05 considered significant. RESULTS: Progressively greater hypotensive exposures were associated with greater 30-day mortality. In the development cohort, covariable-adjusted (age, Charlson score, case duration, history of hypertension) exposure limits were identified for time accumulated below each of the thresholds that portended certain identical (5%–50%) percentage expected increases in the odds of mortality. These exposure time limit sets were shorter in patients with a history of hypertension. A novel risk score, the SLUScore (range 0–31), was conceived as the number of exposure limits exceeded for one of these sets (20% set). A SLUScore > 0 (average 13.8) was found in 40% of patients who had twice the mortality, adjusted odds increasing by 5% per limit exceeded. When tested in the validation cohort, a SLUScore > 0 (average 14.1) identified 35% of patients who had twice the mortality, each incremental limit exceeded portending a 5% compounding increase in adjusted odds of mortality, independent of age and Charlson score (C = 0.73, 0.72–0.74, P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: The SLUScore represents a novel method for identifying nearly 1 in every 3 patients experiencing greater 30-day mortality portended by more severe intraoperative hypotensive exposures. PMID:28107274

The risks and efficacy of solar geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keith, David

2012-12-05

Solar geoengineering may enable a significant reduction in climate risks by partially offsetting climate change due to increasing greenhouse gases, however this emerging technology entails novel risks and uncertainties along with serious challenges to global governance. I will attempt a rough summary of the physics of solar geoengineering and present recent findings regarding (a) the climate's response to radiative forcing by stratospheric aerosols, (b) methods of producing appropriate aerosol distributions, and (c) risks. In closing I will discuss the trade-off between solar geoengineering, emissions reductions and adaptation in climate policy.

A method for examining temporal changes in cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom spatial extent using satellite remote sensing.

PubMed

Urquhart, Erin A; Schaeffer, Blake A; Stumpf, Richard P; Loftin, Keith A; Werdell, P Jeremy

2017-07-01

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHAB) are thought to be increasing globally over the past few decades, but relatively little quantitative information is available about the spatial extent of blooms. Satellite remote sensing provides a potential technology for identifying cyanoHABs in multiple water bodies and across geo-political boundaries. An assessment method was developed using MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) imagery to quantify cyanoHAB surface area extent, transferable to different spatial areas, in Florida, Ohio, and California for the test period of 2008 to 2012. Temporal assessment was used to evaluate changes in satellite resolvable inland waterbodies for each state of interest. To further assess cyanoHAB risk within the states, the World Health Organization's (WHO) recreational guidance level thresholds were used to categorize surface area of cyanoHABs into three risk categories: low, moderate, and high-risk bloom area. Results showed that in Florida, the area of cyanoHABs increased largely due to observed increases in high-risk bloom area. California exhibited a slight decrease in cyanoHAB extent, primarily attributed to decreases in Northern California. In Ohio (excluding Lake Erie), little change in cyanoHAB surface area was observed. This study uses satellite remote sensing to quantify changes in inland cyanoHAB surface area across numerous water bodies within an entire state. The temporal assessment method developed here will be relevant into the future as it is transferable to the Ocean Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) on Sentinel-3A/3B missions. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A method for examining temporal changes in cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom spatial extent using satellite remote sensing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urquhart, Erin A.; Schaeffer, Blake A.; Stumpf, Richard P.; Loftin, Keith A.; Werdell, P. Jeremy

2017-01-01

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHAB) are thought to be increasing globally over the past few decades, but relatively little quantitative information is available about the spatial extent of blooms. Satellite remote sensing provides a potential technology for identifying cyanoHABs in multiple water bodies and across geo-political boundaries. An assessment method was developed using MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) imagery to quantify cyanoHAB surface area extent, transferable to different spatial areas, in Florida, Ohio, and California for the test period of 2008 to 2012. Temporal assessment was used to evaluate changes in satellite resolvable inland waterbodies for each state of interest. To further assess cyanoHAB risk within the states, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recreational guidance level thresholds were used to categorize surface area of cyanoHABs into three risk categories: low, moderate, and high-risk bloom area. Results showed that in Florida, the area of cyanoHABs increased largely due to observed increases in high-risk bloom area. California exhibited a slight decrease in cyanoHAB extent, primarily attributed to decreases in Northern California. In Ohio (excluding Lake Erie), little change in cyanoHAB surface area was observed. This study uses satellite remote sensing to quantify changes in inland cyanoHAB surface area across numerous water bodies within an entire state. The temporal assessment method developed here will be relevant into the future as it is transferable to the Ocean Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) on Sentinel-3A/3B missions.

The Association of Ambient Air Pollution and Physical Inactivity in the United States

PubMed Central

Roberts, Jennifer D.; Voss, Jameson D.; Knight, Brandon

2014-01-01

Background Physical inactivity, ambient air pollution and obesity are modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases, with the first accounting for 10% of premature deaths worldwide. Although community level interventions may target each simultaneously, research on the relationship between these risk factors is lacking. Objectives After comparing spatial interpolation methods to determine the best predictor for particulate matter (PM2.5; PM10) and ozone (O3) exposures throughout the U.S., we evaluated the cross-sectional association of ambient air pollution with leisure-time physical inactivity among adults. Methods In this cross-sectional study, we assessed leisure-time physical inactivity using individual self-reported survey data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. These data were combined with county-level U.S. Environmental Protection Agency air pollution exposure estimates using two interpolation methods (Inverse Distance Weighting and Empirical Bayesian Kriging). Finally, we evaluated whether those exposed to higher levels of air pollution were less active by performing logistic regression, adjusting for demographic and behavioral risk factors, and after stratifying by body weight category. Results With Empirical Bayesian Kriging air pollution values, we estimated a statistically significant 16–35% relative increase in the odds of leisure-time physical inactivity per exposure class increase of PM2.5 in the fully adjusted model across the normal weight respondents (p-value<0.0001). Evidence suggested a relationship between the increasing dose of PM2.5 exposure and the increasing odds of physical inactivity. Conclusions In a nationally representative, cross-sectional sample, increased community level air pollution is associated with reduced leisure-time physical activity particularly among the normal weight. Although our design precludes a causal inference, these results provide additional evidence that air pollution should be investigated as an environmental determinant of inactivity. PMID:24598907

The Importance of Context: Risk-based De-identification of Biomedical Data.

PubMed

Prasser, Fabian; Kohlmayer, Florian; Kuhn, Klaus A

2016-08-05

Data sharing is a central aspect of modern biomedical research. It is accompanied by significant privacy concerns and often data needs to be protected from re-identification. With methods of de-identification datasets can be transformed in such a way that it becomes extremely difficult to link their records to identified individuals. The most important challenge in this process is to find an adequate balance between an increase in privacy and a decrease in data quality. Accurately measuring the risk of re-identification in a specific data sharing scenario is an important aspect of data de-identification. Overestimation of risks will significantly deteriorate data quality, while underestimation will leave data prone to attacks on privacy. Several models have been proposed for measuring risks, but there is a lack of generic methods for risk-based data de-identification. The aim of the work described in this article was to bridge this gap and to show how the quality of de-identified datasets can be improved by using risk models to tailor the process of de-identification to a concrete context. We implemented a generic de-identification process and several models for measuring re-identification risks into the ARX de-identification tool for biomedical data. By integrating the methods into an existing framework, we were able to automatically transform datasets in such a way that information loss is minimized while it is ensured that re-identification risks meet a user-defined threshold. We performed an extensive experimental evaluation to analyze the impact of using different risk models and assumptions about the goals and the background knowledge of an attacker on the quality of de-identified data. The results of our experiments show that data quality can be improved significantly by using risk models for data de-identification. On a scale where 100 % represents the original input dataset and 0 % represents a dataset from which all information has been removed, the loss of information content could be reduced by up to 10 % when protecting datasets against strong adversaries and by up to 24 % when protecting datasets against weaker adversaries. The methods studied in this article are well suited for protecting sensitive biomedical data and our implementation is available as open-source software. Our results can be used by data custodians to increase the information content of de-identified data by tailoring the process to a specific data sharing scenario. Improving data quality is important for fostering the adoption of de-identification methods in biomedical research.

Arsenic exposure through drinking water increases the risk of liver and cardiovascular diseases in the population of West Bengal, India

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Arsenic is a natural drinking water contaminant affecting 26 million people in West Bengal, India. Chronic arsenic exposure causes cancer, cardiovascular disease, liver disease, neuropathies and ocular diseases. The aims of the present study were to assess bioindicators of hepatocellular injury as indicated by the levels of liver enzymes, to determine the auto immune status, as indicated by the amounts of anti-nuclear antibodies (ANA) and anti-dsDNA antibodies in their serum, and to predict cardiovascular risk in the arsenic exposed population. Methods Effect of chronic arsenic exposure on liver was determined by liver function tests. Autoimmune status was measured by measuring ANA and anti-dsDNA in serum. Inflammatory cytokines associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk, IL6, IL8 and MCP-1 were determined. Results Our results indicated that serum levels of bilirubin, alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, alkaline phosphatase and ANA were increased in the arsenic exposed population. Serum levels of IL6 and IL8 also increased in the arsenic exposed group. Conclusions Chronic arsenic exposure causes liver injury, increases the serum levels of autoimmune markers and imparts increased cardiovascular risk. PMID:22883023

Effects of cumulative stress and impulsivity on smoking status

PubMed Central

Ansell, Emily B.; Gu, Peihua; Tuit, Keri; Sinha, Rajita

2013-01-01

Objective The stress-vulnerability model of addiction predicts that environmental factors, such as cumulative stress, will result in individual adaptations that decrease self-control, increase impulsivity, and increase risk for addiction. Impulsivity and cumulative stress are risk factors for tobacco smoking that are rarely examined simultaneously in research. Methods We examined the indirect and direct effects of cumulative adversity in a community sample consisting of 291 men and women who participated in an assessment of cumulative stress, self-reported impulsivity, and smoking history. Data were analyzed using bootstrapping techniques to estimate indirect effects of stress on smoking via impulsivity. Results Cumulative adversity is associated with smoking status via direct effects and indirect effects through impulsivity scores. Additional models examining specific types of stress indicate contributions of traumatic stress and recent life events as well as chronic relationship stressors. Conclusions Overall, cumulative stress is associated with increased risk of smoking via increased impulsivity and via pathways independent of impulsivity. These findings support the stress-vulnerability model and highlight the utility of mediation models in assessing how, and for whom, cumulative stress increases risk of current cigarette smoking. Increasing self-control is a target for interventions with individuals who have experienced cumulative adversity. PMID:22389084

Examination of the Divergence in Trends for Adolescent Marijuana Use and Marijuana-specific Risk Factors in Washington State

PubMed Central

Fleming, Charles B.; Guttmannova, Katarina; Cambron, Christopher; Rhew, Isaac C.; Oesterle, Sabrina

2016-01-01

Purpose As marijuana laws have become more permissive, survey data on adolescents in the United States have shown an increase in marijuana-specific risk factors, particularly in the proportion of youth who do not perceive marijuana use as harmful. Prevalence of marijuana use among youth, however, has changed little. Using representative data from Washington State, which has legalized medical and nonmedical marijuana for adults, we examined two competing hypotheses to account for this divergence in population trends. Methods Data were from 2000 – 2014 biennial Washington State surveys of 10th-grade students. First, we assessed whether associations between marijuana use and marijuana-specific risk factors have weakened over time. Second, we examined whether decreases in alcohol and cigarette use can account for the lack of expected increase in marijuana use prevalence. Results Despite stability in marijuana use prevalence, there were increases in marijuana-specific risk factors of low perceived harm, youth favorable attitudes about use, and perceived community attitudes favorable to use. Associations between marijuana use and marijuana-use predictors varied little across time; if anything, the positive association between low perceived harm and marijuana use grew stronger. Decreases in prevalence of alcohol and cigarette use largely accounted for stability in marijuana use during a period when marijuana risk factors increased. Conclusions Decreases in other types of substance use or in the underlying, common risk for substance use may have mitigated effects of increases in marijuana-specific risk factors. PMID:27318426

Do Executive Function Deficits Predict Later Substance Use Disorders among Adolescents and Young Adults?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilens, Timothy E.; Martelon, MaryKate; Fried, Ronna; Petty, Carter; Bateman, Clancey; Biederman, Joseph

2011-01-01

Objective: There is increasing interest regarding the risk and overlap of executive function deficits (EFDs) in stable cigarette smoking and substance use disorders (SUD). Therefore, we examined whether earlier EFD was a risk factor for subsequent cigarette smoking and SUD and further explored the relationship between EFD and SUD. Method: We…

Early Identification and Interventions for Elementary Students at Risk of Not Succeeding in School.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yungmann, Janet

This project described methods of early identification and implementation of various interventions used to increase achievement of students at risk in grades three, four, and five at John D. Floyd Elementary School in Spring Hill, Florida. The 51 children who qualified for and were enrolled in the dropout prevention program had achievement scores…

Do Chronic Conditions Increase Young Children's Risk of Being Maltreated?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaudes, Paula Kienberger; Mackey-Bilaver, Lucy

2008-01-01

Objective: To examine whether and to what extent specific chronic health conditions place young children at risk of maltreatment. Methods: The study used a sample of Illinois children (born between January 1990 and March 1996) who were through age 3 continuously enrolled in Medicaid, a public health insurance program for low-income families. The…

Location of Food Stores Near Schools Does Not Predict the Weight Status of Maine High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, David E.; Blum, Janet Whatley; Bampton, Matthew; O'Brien, Liam M.; Beaudoin, Christina M.; Polacsek, Michele; O'Rourke, Karen A.

2011-01-01

Objective: To examine the relationship between stores selling calorie-dense food near schools and student obesity risk, with the hypothesis that high availability predicts increased risk. Methods: Mail surveys determined height, weight, and calorie-dense food consumption for 552 students at 11 Maine high schools. Driving distance from all food…

What Factors Place Children with Speech Sound Disorders at Risk for Reading Problems?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anthony, Jason L.; Aghara, Rachel Greenblatt; Dunkelberger, Martha J.; Anthony, Teresa I.; Williams, Jeffrey M.; Zhang, Zhou

2011-01-01

Purpose: To identify weaknesses in print awareness and phonological processing that place children with speech sound disorders (SSDs) at increased risk for reading difficulties. Method: Language, literacy, and phonological skills of 3 groups of preschool-age children were compared: a group of 68 children with SSDs, a group of 68 peers with normal…

Are Blogs Putting Youth at Risk for Online Sexual Solicitation or Harassment?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mitchell, Kimberly J.; Wolak, Janis; Finkelhor, David

2008-01-01

Objective: In light of public concern about the dangers to young people from maintaining online journals or "blogs," this exploratory paper examines whether bloggers are at increased risk for online sexual solicitation or harassment. Method: A national telephone survey of 1,500 youth Internet users, ages 10-17, conducted between March and June…

Use of Mixed Methods Research in Research on Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, and Hypertension: A Scoping Review.

PubMed

Campbell, David J T; Tam-Tham, Helen; Dhaliwal, Kirnvir K; Manns, Braden J; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R; Sanmartin, Claudia; King-Shier, Kathryn

2017-01-01

Mixed methods research, the use of both qualitative and quantitative methods within 1 program of study, is becoming increasingly popular to allow investigators to explore patient experiences (qualitative) and also measure outcomes (quantitative). Coronary artery disease and its risk factors are some of the most studied conditions; however, the extent to which mixed methods studies are being conducted in these content areas is unknown. We sought to comprehensively describe the characteristics of published mixed methods studies on coronary artery disease and major risk factors (diabetes mellitus and hypertension). We conducted a scoping review of the literature indexed in PubMed, Medline, EMBASE, and CINAHL. We identified 811 abstracts for screening, of which 254 articles underwent full-text review and 97 reports of 81 studies met criteria for inclusion. The majority of studies in this area were conducted in the past 10 years by nurse researchers from the United States and United Kingdom. Diabetes mellitus was the most common content area for mixed methods investigation (compared with coronary artery disease and hypertension). Most authors described their rationale for using mixed methods as complementarity and did not describe study priority or how they reconciled differences in methodological paradigms. Some mixed methods study designs were more commonly used than others, including concurrent timing and integration at the interpretation stage. Qualitative strands were most commonly descriptive studies using interviews for data collection. Quantitative strands were most commonly cross-sectional observational studies, which relied heavily on self-report data such as surveys and scales. Although mixed methods research is becoming increasingly popular in the area of coronary artery disease and its risk factors, many of the more advanced mixed methods, qualitative, and quantitative techniques have not been commonly used in these areas. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Multiple risk factors related to familial predisposition to anterior cruciate ligament injury: fraternal twin sisters with anterior cruciate ligament ruptures

PubMed Central

Hewett, T E; Lynch, T R; Myer, G D; Ford, K R; Gwin, R C; Heidt, R S

2014-01-01

Objective A multifactorial combination of predictors may increase anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury risk in athletes. The objective of this twin study was to examine these risk factors to identify commonalities in risk factors that predisposed female fraternal twins to ACL injury. Methods Female twins in high-risk sports were prospectively measured prior to an injury for neuromuscular control using three-dimensional motion analysis during landing, hamstrings and quadriceps muscular strength on a dynamometer and joint laxity using a modified Beighton–Horan index and a Compu-KT arthrometer. Intraoperative measures of femoral intercondylar notch width were recorded during ACL reconstruction. Results Abduction angles were increased at one knee in both of the twin sister athletes relative to uninjured controls at initial contact and at maximum displacement during landing. The twin female athletes that went on to ACL injury also demonstrated decreased peak knee flexion motion at both knees than uninjured females during landing. The twin athletes also had increased joint laxity and decreased hamstrings to quadriceps (H/Q) torque ratios compared to controls. Femoral intercondylar notch widths were also below the control mean in the twin siblings. Conclusions Prescreened mature female twins that subsequently experienced ACL injury demonstrated multiple potential risk factors including: increased knee abduction angles, decreased knee flexion angles, increased general joint laxity, decreased H/Q ratios and femoral intercondylar notch width. PMID:19158132

Childhood leukaemia and distance from power lines in California: a population-based case-control study

PubMed Central

Crespi, Catherine M; Vergara, Ximena P; Hooper, Chris; Oksuzyan, Sona; Wu, Sheng; Cockburn, Myles; Kheifets, Leeka

2016-01-01

Background: Studies have reported an increased risk of childhood leukaemia associated with living near high-voltage electric power transmission lines that extend to distances at which magnetic fields from lines are negligible. We conducted a large records-based case-control study of childhood leukaemia risk in the population living near power lines in California. Methods: The study included 5788 childhood leukaemia and 3308 central nervous system (CNS) cancer cases (for comparison) born in and diagnosed in California (1986–2008), and matched to population-based controls by age and sex. We geocoded birth address and estimated the distance from residence to transmission lines using geographic information systems, aerial imagery, and, for some residences, site visits. Results: For leukaemia, there was a slight excess of cases within 50 m of a transmission line over 200 kV (odds ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 0.7–2.7). There was no evidence of increased risk for distances beyond 50 m, for lower-voltage lines, or for CNS cancers. Conclusions: Our findings did not clearly support an increased childhood leukaemia risk associated with close proximity (<50 m) to higher voltage lines, but could be consistent with a small increased risk. Reports of increased risk for distances beyond 50 m were not replicated. PMID:27219016

Risks and Benefits of Salpingectomy at the Time of Sterilization.

PubMed

Castellano, Tara; Zerden, Matthew; Marsh, Laura; Boggess, Kim

2017-11-01

Bilateral salpingectomy reduces the risk ovarian cancer. The Society of Gynecologic Oncology has recommended surgeons discuss salpingectomy with patients desiring sterilization. This review summarizes current literature on the benefits and risks of bilateral salpingectomy to reduce ovarian cancer risk. Areas of insufficient evidence and directions for further research are discussed. We examined the benefits and risks of bilateral salpingectomy for female surgical sterilization, using a PubMed and EMBASE literature review. Search parameters included articles in English language and keywords "salpingectomy" or "ovarian cancer" combined with "contraception," "sterilization," or "tubal ligation." We reviewed 4 high-quality studies that investigated the increased risk reduction of bilateral salpingectomy compared with traditional sterilization. Overall, evidence shows that salpingectomy moderately decreases the risk of ovarian cancer compared with traditional sterilization. An additional 4 studies, including a meta-analysis, showed salpingectomy likely does not have significant long-term impact on ovarian reserve. Additional benefits include improved contraceptive efficacy and elimination of subsequent ectopic pregnancies. Risks include need for in vitro fertilization for patients experiencing sterilization regret, increases in operative time, and potential increases in surgical risks. Bilateral salpingectomy can reduce ovarian cancer risk compared with traditional sterilization; however, research regarding other outcomes is limited. Challenges to implementation include physician concern regarding surgical risks and patient education. Studies investigating patient-based outcomes are lacking. Bilateral salpingectomy for surgical sterilization is a reasonable option when patients are appropriately informed. Ovarian cancer risk reduction should be one of several factors considered when patients choose a surgical sterilization method.

Epidemiology of non-keratinocytic skin cancers among persons with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the U.S.

PubMed Central

Lanoy, Emilie; Dores, Graça M.; Madeleine, Margaret M.; Toro, Jorge R.; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Engels, Eric A.

2009-01-01

Objective Immunosuppression may increase risk for some skin cancers. We evaluated skin cancer epidemiology among persons with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Design We linked data from population-based U.S. AIDS and cancer registries to evaluate risk of non-keratinocytic skin cancers (melanoma, Merkel cell carcinoma, and appendageal carcinomas, including sebaceous carcinoma) in 497,142 persons with AIDS. Methods Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated to relate skin cancer risk to that in the general population. We used logistic regression to compare risk according to demographic factors, CD4 count, and a geographic index of ultraviolet radiation exposure. Results From 60 months before to 60 months after AIDS onset, persons with AIDS had elevated risks of melanoma (SIR=1.3, 95%CI 1.1-1.4, n=292 cases) and, more strongly, of Merkel cell carcinoma (SIR=11, 95%CI 6.3-17, n=17) and sebaceous carcinoma (SIR=8.1, 95%CI 3.2-17, n=7). Risk for appendageal carcinomas increased with progressive time relative to AIDS onset (p-trend=0.03). Risk of these skin cancers was higher in non-Hispanic whites than other racial/ethnic groups, and melanoma risk was highest among men who have sex with men. Melanoma risk was unrelated to CD4 count at AIDS onset (p=0.32). Risks for melanoma and appendageal carcinomas rose with increasing ultraviolet radiation exposure (p-trend<10-4 and p-trend=10-3, respectively). Conclusions Among persons with AIDS, there is a modest excess risk of melanoma which is not strongly related to immunosuppression and may relate to ultraviolet radiation exposure. In contrast, the greatly increased risks for Merkel cell and sebaceous carcinoma suggest an etiologic role for immunosuppression. PMID:19114864

Association of Genetic Variants with Isolated Fasting Hyperglycaemia and Isolated Postprandial Hyperglycaemia in a Han Chinese Population

PubMed Central

Chen, Ying; Chen, Li; Zhao, Zhigang; Li, Qiang; Ge, Jiapu; Chen, Gang; Guo, Xiaohui; Lu, Juming; Weng, Jianping; Jia, Weiping; Ji, Linong; Xiao, Jianzhong; Shan, Zhongyan; Liu, Jie; Tian, Haoming; Ji, Qiuhe; Zhu, Dalong; Zhou, Zhiguang; Shan, Guangliang; Yang, Wenying

2013-01-01

Background Though multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with type 2 diabetes have been identified, the genetic bases of isolated fasting hyperglycaemia (IFH) and isolated postprandial hyperglycaemia (IPH) were still unclear. In present study, we aimed to investigate the association of genome-wide association study-validated genetic variants and IFH or IPH in Han Chinese. Methods/Principal Findings We genotyped 27 validated SNPs in 6,663 unrelated individuals comprising 341 IFH, 865 IPH, 1,203 combined fasting hyperglycaemia and postprandial hyperglycaemia, and 4,254 normal glycaemic subjects of Han ancestry. The distributions of genotype frequencies of FTO, CDKAL1 and GCKR were significant different between individuals with IFH and those with IPH (SNP(ptrend): rs8050136(0.0024), rs9939609(0.0049), rs7756992(0.0122), rs780094(0.0037)). Risk allele of FTO specifically increased the risk of IFH (rs8050136: OR 1.403 [95% CI 1.125–1.750], p = 0.0027; rs9939609: 1.398 [1.120–1.744], p = 0.0030). G allele of CDKAL1 specifically increased the risk of IPH (1.217 [1.092–1.355], p = 0.0004). G allele of GCKR increased the risk of IFH (1.167 [0.999–1.362], p = 0.0513), but decreased the risk of IPH (0.891 [0.801–0.991], p = 0.0331). In addition, TCF7L2 and KCNQ1 increased the risk of both IFH and IPH. When combined, each additional risk allele associated with IFH increased the risk for IFH by 1.246-fold (p<0.0001), while each additional risk allele associated with IPH increased the risk for IPH by 1.190-fold (p<0.0001). Conclusion/Significance Our results indicate that genotype distributions of variants from FTO, GCKR, CDKAL1 were different between IPH and IFH in Han Chinese. Variants of genes modulating insulin sensitivity (FTO, GCKR) contributed to the risk of IFH, while variants of genes related to beta cell function (CDKAL1) increase the risk of IPH. PMID:23990951

The Relationship of Walking Intensity to Total and Cause-Specific Mortality. Results from the National Walkers’ Health Study

PubMed Central

Williams, Paul T.; Thompson, Paul D.

2013-01-01

Purpose Test whether: 1) walking intensity predicts mortality when adjusted for walking energy expenditure, and 2) slow walking pace (≥24-minute mile) identifies subjects at substantially elevated risk for mortality. Methods Hazard ratios from Cox proportional survival analyses of all-cause and cause-specific mortality vs. usual walking pace (min/mile) in 7,374 male and 31,607 female recreational walkers. Survival times were left censored for age at entry into the study. Other causes of death were treated as a competing risk for the analyses of cause-specific mortality. All analyses were adjusted for sex, education, baseline smoking, prior heart attack, aspirin use, diet, BMI, and walking energy expenditure. Deaths within one year of baseline were excluded. Results The National Death Index identified 1968 deaths during the average 9.4-year mortality surveillance. Each additional minute per mile in walking pace was associated with an increased risk of mortality due to all causes (1.8% increase, P=10-5), cardiovascular diseases (2.4% increase, P=0.001, 637 deaths), ischemic heart disease (2.8% increase, P=0.003, 336 deaths), heart failure (6.5% increase, P=0.001, 36 deaths), hypertensive heart disease (6.2% increase, P=0.01, 31 deaths), diabetes (6.3% increase, P=0.004, 32 deaths), and dementia (6.6% increase, P=0.0004, 44 deaths). Those reporting a pace slower than a 24-minute mile were at increased risk for mortality due to all-causes (44.3% increased risk, P=0.0001), cardiovascular diseases (43.9% increased risk, P=0.03), and dementia (5.0-fold increased risk, P=0.0002) even though they satisfied the current exercise recommendations by walking ≥7.5 metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours per week. Conclusions The risk for mortality: 1) decreases in association with walking intensity, and 2) increases substantially in association for walking pace ≥24 minute mile (equivalent to <400m during a six-minute walk test) even among subjects who exercise regularly. PMID:24260542

Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Raybould, Alan; Macdonald, Phil

2018-01-01

We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM) crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment. PMID:29755975

Comparison of wildfire smoke estimation methods and associations with cardiopulmonary-related hospital admissions.

PubMed

Gan, Ryan W; Ford, Bonne; Lassman, William; Pfister, Gabriele; Vaidyanathan, Ambarish; Fischer, Emily; Volckens, John; Pierce, Jeffrey R; Magzamen, Sheryl

2017-03-01

Climate forecasts predict an increase in frequency and intensity of wildfires. Associations between health outcomes and population exposure to smoke from Washington 2012 wildfires were compared using surface monitors, chemical-weather models, and a novel method blending three exposure information sources. The association between smoke particulate matter ≤2.5 μm in diameter (PM 2.5 ) and cardiopulmonary hospital admissions occurring in Washington from 1 July to 31 October 2012 was evaluated using a time-stratified case-crossover design. Hospital admissions aggregated by ZIP code were linked with population-weighted daily average concentrations of smoke PM 2.5 estimated using three distinct methods: a simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model, a kriged interpolation of PM 2.5 measurements from surface monitors, and a geographically weighted ridge regression (GWR) that blended inputs from WRF-Chem, satellite observations of aerosol optical depth, and kriged PM 2.5 . A 10 μg/m 3 increase in GWR smoke PM 2.5 was associated with an 8% increased risk in asthma-related hospital admissions (odds ratio (OR): 1.076, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.019-1.136); other smoke estimation methods yielded similar results. However, point estimates for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) differed by smoke PM 2.5 exposure method: a 10 μg/m 3 increase using GWR was significantly associated with increased risk of COPD (OR: 1.084, 95%CI: 1.026-1.145) and not significant using WRF-Chem (OR: 0.986, 95%CI: 0.931-1.045). The magnitude (OR) and uncertainty (95%CI) of associations between smoke PM 2.5 and hospital admissions were dependent on estimation method used and outcome evaluated. Choice of smoke exposure estimation method used can impact the overall conclusion of the study.

Risk of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in Relation to Benign Ovarian Conditions and Ovarian Surgery

PubMed Central

Rossing, Mary Anne; Cushing-Haugen, Kara L.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Weiss, Noel S.

2009-01-01

Objective Some forms of ovarian neoplasms may be preventable through the removal of precursor lesions. We assessed risk associated with a prior diagnosis of, and ovarian surgery following, ovarian cysts and endometriosis, with a focus on characterizing risk among tumor subgroups. Methods Information was collected during in-person interviews with 812 women with ovarian cancer diagnosed in western Washington State from 2002–2005 and 1,313 population-based controls. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results The risk of a borderline mucinous ovarian tumor associated with a history of an ovarian cyst was increased (OR=1.7, 95% CI 1.0–2.8) but did not vary notably according to receipt of subsequent ovarian surgery. While risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer was slightly increased among women with a cyst who had no subsequent ovarian surgery, it was reduced when a cyst diagnosis was followed by surgery (OR= 0.6, 95% CI 0.4–0.9). This reduction in risk was most evident for serous invasive tumors. Women with a history of endometriosis had a three-fold increased risk of endometrioid and clear cell invasive tumors, with a lesser risk increase among women who underwent subsequent ovarian surgery. Conclusions Our results suggest differences in the relation of ovarian cysts and endometriosis with risk of specific subtypes of ovarian cancer, as well as the possibility that ovarian surgery in women with these conditions may lower the risk of invasive disease. PMID:18704718

Hypertension risk: exercise is medicine* for most but not all.

PubMed

Loenneke, Jeremy P; Fahs, Christopher A; Abe, Takashi; Rossow, Lindy M; Ozaki, Hayao; Pujol, Thomas J; Bemben, Michael G

2014-01-01

Hypertension is a risk factor for heart disease, and chronic exercise is recognized as a method for reducing resting blood pressure. Recent studies report that while exercise may benefit the majority of the population, the blood pressure adaptation is not always uniform; some individuals have an adverse blood pressure response to chronic aerobic exercise programmes. The purpose of this study was to examine the individual changes in resting blood pressure in response to exercise training regimens aimed at increasing muscle mass and strength. We have also included exercise (resistance and aerobic) in combination with blood flow restriction (BFR). Of 74 individuals, 11% had an increased risk, 16% had a decreased risk and 73% had no change in risk classification following exercise. The statistical analysis found that the group that decreased risk with exercise tended to have higher baseline levels of blood pressure. However, there were little baseline differences between the group that increased risk or the group that had no change in risk, suggesting that starting values may not necessarily determine who will see a beneficial response. In conclusion, the blood pressure adaptation to resistance training and exercise with BFR is not homogeneous with some participants increasing, decreasing or staying in the same risk category following an exercise intervention. These are important findings as they would not have been noted or discussed when looking only at the group means. Future research may identify molecular predictors so that individuals at risk for adverse events can be identified prior to exercise. © 2013 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predictors of Death in Trauma Patients who are Alive on Arrival at Hospital.

PubMed

Lichtveld, Rob A; Panhuizen, Ivo F; Smit, Ronald B J; Holtslag, Hermann R; van der Werken, Christian

2007-02-01

To determine which factors predict death occurring in trauma patients who are alive on arrival at hospital Design Prospective cohort study Method Data were collected from 507 trauma patients with multiple injuries, with a Hospital Trauma Index-Injury Severity Score of 16 or more, who were initially delivered by the Emergency Medical Services to the Emergency Department of the University Medical Centre Utrecht (UMCU) during the period 1999-2000. Univariate analysis showed that every year of age increase resulted in a 2% greater risk of death. If the patient had been intubated at the scene of the accident, this risk was increased 4.3-fold. Every point of increase in the Triage Revised Trauma Score (T-RTS) reduced the risk of death by 30%. A similar (but inverse) tendency was found for the HTI-ISS score, with every point of increase resulting in a 5% greater risk of death. There was a clear relationship between the base excess (BE) and hemoglobin (Hb) levels and the risk of death, the latter being increased by 8% for each mmol/l drop in BE, and reduced by 22% for each mmol/l increase in Hb. The risk of death occurring was 2.6 times higher in cases with isolated neurotrauma. These associations hardly changed in the multivariate analysis; only the relation with having been intubated at the scene disappeared. The risk of severely injured accident patients dying after arriving in hospital is mainly determined by the T-RTS, age, presence of isolated neurological damage, BE and Hb level. Skull/brain damage and hemorrhage appear to be the most important causes of death in the first 24 h after the accident. The time interval between the accident and arrival at the hospital does not appear to affect the risk of death.

The Life-Long Mortality Risks Of World War II Experiences

PubMed Central

Elder, Glen H.; Brown, James Scott; Martin, Leslie R.; Friedman, Howard W.

2009-01-01

Objective This longitudinal study of American veterans investigated the mortality risks of five World War II military experiences (i.e., combat exposure) and their variation among veterans in the post-war years. Methods The male subjects (N=854) are members of the Stanford-Terman study, and 38 percent served in World War II. Cox models (proportional hazards regressions) compared the relative mortality risk associated with each military experience. Results Overseas duty, service in the Pacific and exposure to combat significantly increased the mortality risks of veterans in the study. Individual differences in education, mental health in 1950, and age at entry into the military, as well as personality factors made no difference in these results. Conclusions A gradient is observable such that active duty on the home front, followed by overseas duty, service in the Pacific, and combat exposure markedly increased the risk of relatively early mortality. Potential linking mechanisms include heavy drinking. PMID:20161074

Excess BMI in Childhood: A Modifiable Risk Factor for Type 1 Diabetes Development?

PubMed Central

Liu, Yuk-Fun; Evans-Molina, Carmella; Libman, Ingrid M.; Besser, Rachel; Becker, Dorothy J.; Rodriguez, Henry; Moran, Antoinette; Gitelman, Stephen E.; Redondo, Maria J.

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE We aimed to determine the effect of elevated BMI over time on the progression to type 1 diabetes in youth. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We studied 1,117 children in the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention cohort (autoantibody-positive relatives of patients with type 1 diabetes). Longitudinally accumulated BMI above the 85th age- and sex-adjusted percentile generated a cumulative excess BMI (ceBMI) index. Recursive partitioning and multivariate analyses yielded sex- and age-specific ceBMI thresholds for greatest type 1 diabetes risk. RESULTS Higher ceBMI conferred significantly greater risk of progressing to type 1 diabetes. The increased diabetes risk occurred at lower ceBMI values in children <12 years of age compared with older subjects and in females versus males. CONCLUSIONS Elevated BMI is associated with increased risk of diabetes progression in pediatric autoantibody-positive relatives, but the effect varies by sex and age. PMID:28202550

Reproductive Health Risks Associated with Occupational Exposures to Antineoplastic Drugs in Health Care Settings: A Review of the Evidence

PubMed Central

Connor, Thomas H.; Lawson, Christina C.; Polovich, Martha; McDiarmid, Melissa A.

2015-01-01

Objectives Antineoplastic drugs are known reproductive and developmental toxicants. Our objective was to review the existing literature of reproductive health risks to workers who handle antineoplastic drugs. Methods A structured literature review of 18 peer-reviewed, English language publications of occupational exposure and reproductive outcomes was performed. Results While effect sizes varied with study size and population, occupational exposure to antineoplastic drugs appears to raise the risk of both congenital malformations and miscarriage. Studies of infertility and time-to-pregnancy also suggested an increased risk for sub-fertility. Conclusions Antineoplastic drugs are highly toxic in patients receiving treatment and adverse reproductive effects have been well documented in these patients. Healthcare workers with chronic, low level occupational exposure to these drugs also appear to have an increased risk of adverse reproductive outcomes. Additional precautions to prevent exposure should be considered. PMID:25153300

Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

PubMed

Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

2015-12-15

An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

No relationship between circulating levels of sex steroids and mammographic breast density: the Prospect-EPIC cohort

PubMed Central

Verheus, Martijn; Peeters, Petra HM; van Noord, Paulus AH; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Grobbee, Diederick E; van Gils, Carla H

2007-01-01

Background High breast density is associated with increased breast cancer risk. Epidemiologic studies have shown an increase in breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women with high levels of sex steroids. Hence, sex steroids may increase postmenopausal breast cancer risk via an increase of breast density. The objective of the present study was to study the relation between circulating oestrogens and androgens as well as sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) in relation to breast density. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study among 775 postmenopausal women, using baseline data of a random sample of the Prospect-EPIC study. Prospect-EPIC is one of two Dutch cohorts participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, and women were recruited via a breast cancer screening programme. At enrolment a nonfasting blood sample was taken and a mammogram was made. Oestrone, oestradiol, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, androstenedione, testosterone and SHBG levels were measured, using double-antibody radioimmunoassays. Concentrations of free oestradiol and free testosterone were calculated from the measured oestradiol, testosterone and SHBG levels Mammographic dense and nondense areas were measured using a semiquantitative computerized method and the percentage breast density was calculated. Mean breast measures for quintiles of hormone or SHBG levels were estimated using linear regression analyses. Results Both oestrogens and testosterone were inversely related with percent breast density, but these relationships disappeared after adjustment for BMI. None of the sex steroids or SHBG was associated with the absolute measure of breast density, the dense area. Conclusion The results of our study do not support the hypothesis that sex steroids increase postmenopausal breast cancer risk via an increase in breast density. PMID:17692133

Ambient fine particulate air pollution triggers ST-elevation myocardial infarction, but not non-ST elevation myocardial infarction: a case-crossover study.

PubMed

Gardner, Blake; Ling, Frederick; Hopke, Philip K; Frampton, Mark W; Utell, Mark J; Zareba, Wojciech; Cameron, Scott J; Chalupa, David; Kane, Cathleen; Kulandhaisamy, Suresh; Topf, Michael C; Rich, David Q

2014-01-02

We and others have shown that increases in particulate air pollutant (PM) concentrations in the previous hours and days have been associated with increased risks of myocardial infarction, but little is known about the relationships between air pollution and specific subsets of myocardial infarction, such as ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Using data from acute coronary syndrome patients with STEMI (n = 338) and NSTEMI (n = 339) and case-crossover methods, we estimated the risk of STEMI and NSTEMI associated with increased ambient fine particle (<2.5 um) concentrations, ultrafine particle (10-100 nm) number concentrations, and accumulation mode particle (100-500 nm) number concentrations in the previous few hours and days. We found a significant 18% increase in the risk of STEMI associated with each 7.1 μg/m³ increase in PM₂.₅ concentration in the previous hour prior to acute coronary syndrome onset, with smaller, non-significantly increased risks associated with increased fine particle concentrations in the previous 3, 12, and 24 hours. We found no pattern with NSTEMI. Estimates of the risk of STEMI associated with interquartile range increases in ultrafine particle and accumulation mode particle number concentrations in the previous 1 to 96 hours were all greater than 1.0, but not statistically significant. Patients with pre-existing hypertension had a significantly greater risk of STEMI associated with increased fine particle concentration in the previous hour than patients without hypertension. Increased fine particle concentrations in the hour prior to acute coronary syndrome onset were associated with an increased risk of STEMI, but not NSTEMI. Patients with pre-existing hypertension and other cardiovascular disease appeared particularly susceptible. Further investigation into mechanisms by which PM can preferentially trigger STEMI over NSTEMI within this rapid time scale is needed.

The Impact of a 25 Cent-Per-Drink Alcohol Tax Increase: Who Pays the Tab?

PubMed Central

Daley, James I.; Stahre, Mandy A.; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Naimi, Timothy S.

2013-01-01

Background Excessive alcohol consumption causes 79,000 deaths annually in the U.S., shortening the lives of those who die by approximately 30 years. Although alcohol taxation is an effective measure to reduce excessive consumption and related harms, some argue that increasing alcohol taxes places an unfair economic burden on “responsible” drinkers and socially disadvantaged persons. Purpose To examine the impact of a hypothetical tax increase based on alcohol consumption and socio-demographic characteristics of current drinkers, individually and in aggregate. Methods Data from the 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey was analyzed from 2010–2011 to determine the net financial impact of a hypothetical 25 cent-per-drink tax increase on current drinkers in the U.S. Higher-risk drinkers were defined as those whose past-30 day consumption included binge drinking, heavy drinking, drinking in excess of the U.S. Dietary Guidelines, and alcohol-impaired driving. Results Of current drinkers in the U.S., 50.4% (or approximately 25% of the total U.S. population) were classified as higher-risk drinkers. The tax increase would result in a 9.2% reduction in alcohol consumption, including an 11.4% reduction in heavy drinking. Compared with lower-risk drinkers, higher-risk drinkers paid 4.7 times more in net increased annual per capita taxes, and paid 82.7% of net increased annual aggregate taxes. Lower-risk drinkers paid less than $30 in net increased taxes annually. In aggregate, groups who paid the most in net tax increases included those who were white, male, between the ages of 21 and 50, earning ≥$50,000 per year, employed, and had a college degree. Conclusions A 25 cent-per-drink alcohol tax increase would reduce excessive drinking, and higher-risk drinkers would pay the substantial majority of the net tax increase. PMID:22424251

Roadside vegetation barrier designs to mitigate near-road air pollution impacts

EPA Science Inventory

With increasing evidence that exposures to air pollution near large roadways increases risks of a number of adverse human health effects, identifying methods to reduce these exposures has become a public health priority. Roadside vegetation barriers have shown the potential to re...

Reconnecting Stochastic Methods With Hydrogeological Applications: A Utilitarian Uncertainty Analysis and Risk Assessment Approach for the Design of Optimal Monitoring Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bode, Felix; Ferré, Ty; Zigelli, Niklas; Emmert, Martin; Nowak, Wolfgang

2018-03-01

Collaboration between academics and practitioners promotes knowledge transfer between research and industry, with both sides benefiting greatly. However, academic approaches are often not feasible given real-world limits on time, cost and data availability, especially for risk and uncertainty analyses. Although the need for uncertainty quantification and risk assessment are clear, there are few published studies examining how scientific methods can be used in practice. In this work, we introduce possible strategies for transferring and communicating academic approaches to real-world applications, countering the current disconnect between increasingly sophisticated academic methods and methods that work and are accepted in practice. We analyze a collaboration between academics and water suppliers in Germany who wanted to design optimal groundwater monitoring networks for drinking-water well catchments. Our key conclusions are: to prefer multiobjective over single-objective optimization; to replace Monte-Carlo analyses by scenario methods; and to replace data-hungry quantitative risk assessment by easy-to-communicate qualitative methods. For improved communication, it is critical to set up common glossaries of terms to avoid misunderstandings, use striking visualization to communicate key concepts, and jointly and continually revisit the project objectives. Ultimately, these approaches and recommendations are simple and utilitarian enough to be transferred directly to other practical water resource related problems.

Bladder cancer and occupation: a case-control study in northern Italy.

PubMed Central

Porru, S; Aulenti, V; Donato, F; Boffetta, P; Fazioli, R; Cosciani Cunico, S; Alessio, L

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVES--A hospital based case-control study was conducted between 1992 and 1993 in the province of Brescia, a highly industrialised area in northern Italy, to evaluate occupational risk factors of bladder cancer. METHODS--The study evaluated 355 histologically confirmed cases of bladder cancer (275 men, 80 women) and 579 controls affected by urological non-neoplastic diseases (397 men, 182 women). Lifetime occupational history, smoking and drinking habits, and sociodemographic characteristics were recorded by means of a structured questionnaire. Odds ratios (ORs) were computed with adjustment for age, smoking, alcohol and coffee consumption, education, and place of residence. RESULTS--A significant (P < 0.05) increase of risk of bladder cancer were found in men for labourers in the construction industry (OR 2.1, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.1-3.9) and for recreational and cultural services (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.3-18.9). Increased risks, although not significant, were found for various other occupations and industries such as machinery mechanics, metal processers and polishers, blacksmiths, gunsmiths, painters; for transport workers, an increased risk with increasing duration of employment was found. CONCLUSIONS--Occupational exposures seem to contribute to bladder cancer risk in the area under study. PMID:8563860

Personality traits and chronic disease: implications for adult personality development.

PubMed

Sutin, Angelina R; Zonderman, Alan B; Ferrucci, Luigi; Terracciano, Antonio

2013-11-01

Personality traits have been associated with chronic disease. Less is known about the longitudinal relation between personality and disease and whether chronic disease is associated with changes in personality. Method. Participants from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging (N = 2,008) completed the Revised NEO Personality Inventory and a standard medical interview at regularly scheduled visits; the Charlson Comorbidity Index, a weighted sum of 19 serious diseases, was derived from this interview. Using data from 6,685 visits, we tested whether personality increased risk of disease and whether disease was associated with personality change. Measured concurrently, neuroticism and conscientiousness were associated with greater disease burden. The impulsiveness facet of neuroticism was the strongest predictor of developing disease across the follow-up period: For every standard deviation increase in impulsiveness, there was a 26% increased risk of developing disease and a 36% increased risk of getting more ill. Personality traits changed only modestly with disease: As participants developed chronic illnesses, they became more conservative (decreased openness). Discussion. This research indicates that personality traits confer risk for disease, in part, through health-risk behaviors. These traits, however, were relatively resistant to the effect of serious disease.

Direct comparison of risk-adjusted and non-risk-adjusted CUSUM analyses of coronary artery bypass surgery outcomes.

PubMed

Novick, Richard J; Fox, Stephanie A; Stitt, Larry W; Forbes, Thomas L; Steiner, Stefan

2006-08-01

We previously applied non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods to analyze coronary bypass outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the incremental advantage of risk-adjusted cumulative sum methods in this setting. Prospective data were collected in 793 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass grafting performed by a single surgeon during a period of 5 years. The composite occurrence of an "adverse outcome" included mortality or any of 10 major complications. An institutional logistic regression model for adverse outcome was developed by using 2608 contemporaneous patients undergoing coronary bypass. The predicted risk of adverse outcome in each of the surgeon's 793 patients was then calculated. A risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was then generated after specifying control limits and odds ratio. This risk-adjusted curve was compared with the non-risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve, and the clinical significance of this difference was assessed. The surgeon's adverse outcome rate was 96 of 793 (12.1%) versus 270 of 1815 (14.9%) for all the other institution's surgeons combined (P = .06). The non-risk-adjusted curve reached below the lower control limit, signifying excellent outcomes between cases 164 and 313, 323 and 407, and 667 and 793, but transgressed the upper limit between cases 461 and 478. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve never transgressed the upper control limit, signifying that cases preceding and including 461 to 478 were at an increased predicted risk. Furthermore, if the risk-adjusted cumulative sum curve was reset to zero whenever a control limit was reached, it still signaled a decrease in adverse outcome at 166, 653, and 782 cases. Risk-adjusted cumulative sum techniques provide incremental advantages over non-risk-adjusted methods by not signaling a decrement in performance when preoperative patient risk is high.

BLACK PRETERM BIRTH RISK IN NON-BLACK NEIGHBORHOODS: EFFECTS OF HISPANIC, ASIAN, AND NON-HISPANIC WHITE ETHNIC DENSITIES

PubMed Central

Mason, Susan M.; Kaufman, Jay S.; Daniels, Julie L.; Emch, Michael E.; Hogan, Vijaya K.; Savitz, David A.

2013-01-01

Purpose Studies of ethnic density and health in the United States have documented poorer health outcomes in black compared to non-black neighborhoods, but few studies have considered the identities of the non-black populations. Methods New York City birth records from 1995 through 2003 and a spatial measure of ethnic density were used to examine preterm birth risks among non-Hispanic black women associated with non-Hispanic white, Hispanic, Asian, and non-Hispanic black neighborhood densities. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the effect on black preterm birth risks of replacing white neighbors with Hispanic, Asian, and black neighbors. Risk differences were computed for changes from the 10th to the 90th percentiles of ethnic density. Results Increasing Hispanic density was associated with reduced preterm birth risks among non-Hispanic black women, especially if the black women were foreign-born (RD=−19.1 per 1,000 births; 95% CI: −28.6, −9.5). Estimates for increasing Asian density were null. Increasing black density was associated with increasing black preterm birth risk, with a threshold at higher levels of black density. Conclusions The low risks of preterm birth among foreign-born non-Hispanic black women in majority-Hispanic neighborhoods may be related to protective psychosocial or nutritional factors in Hispanic neighborhoods. PMID:21737050

Risk factors for community-acquired pneumonia in adults in Europe: a literature review

PubMed Central

Torres, Antoni; Peetermans, Willy E; Viegi, Giovanni; Blasi, Francesco

2013-01-01

Background Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) causes considerable morbidity and mortality in adults, particularly in the elderly. Methods Structured searches of PubMed were conducted to identify up-to-date information on the incidence of CAP in adults in Europe, as well as data on lifestyle and medical risk factors for CAP. Results The overall annual incidence of CAP in adults ranged between 1.07 to 1.2 per 1000 person-years and 1.54 to 1.7 per 1000 population and increased with age (14 per 1000 person-years in adults aged ≥65 years). Incidence was also higher in men than in women and in patients with chronic respiratory disease or HIV infection. Lifestyle factors associated with an increased risk of CAP included smoking, alcohol abuse, being underweight, having regular contact with children and poor dental hygiene. The presence of comorbid conditions, including chronic respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular disease, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, dementia, dysphagia, HIV or chronic renal or liver disease all increased the risk of CAP by twofold to fourfold. Conclusion A range of lifestyle factors and underlying medical conditions are associated with an increased risk of CAP in European adults. Understanding of the types of individual at greatest risk of CAP can help to ensure that interventions to reduce the risk of infection and burden of disease are targeted appropriately. PMID:24130229

Linking electronic health record-extracted psychosocial data in real-time to risk of readmission for heart failure

PubMed Central

Watson, Alice J.; O’Rourke, Julia; Jethwani, Kamal; Cami, Aurel; Stern, Theodore A.; Kvedar, Joseph C.; Chueh, Henry C.; Zai, Adrian H.

2013-01-01

Background Knowledge of psychosocial characteristics that helps to identify patients at increased risk for readmission for heart failure (HF) may facilitate timely and targeted care. Objective We hypothesized that certain psychosocial characteristics extracted from the electronic health record (EHR) would be associated with an increased risk for hospital readmission within the next 30 days. Methods We identified 15 psychosocial predictors of readmission. Eleven of these were extracted from the EHR (six from structured data sources and five from unstructured clinical notes). We then analyzed their association with the likelihood of hospital readmission within the next 30 days among 729 patients admitted for HF. Finally, we developed a multivariable predictive model to recognize individuals at high risk for readmission. Results We found five characteristics—dementia, depression, adherence, declining/refusal of services, and missed clinical appointments—that were associated with an increased risk for hospital readmission: the first four features were captured from unstructured clinical notes, while the last item was captured from a structured data source. Conclusions Unstructured clinical notes contain important knowledge on the relationship between psychosocial risk factors and an increased risk of readmission for HF that would otherwise have been missed if only structured data were considered. Gathering this EHR-based knowledge can be automated, thus enabling timely and targeted care. PMID:21777714

Personal use of hair dyes and the risk of bladder cancer: results of a meta-analysis.

PubMed Central

Huncharek, Michael; Kupelnick, Bruce

2005-01-01

OBJECTIVE: This study examined the methodology of observational studies that explored an association between personal use of hair dye products and the risk of bladder cancer. METHODS: Data were pooled from epidemiological studies using a general variance-based meta-analytic method that employed confidence intervals. The outcome of interest was a summary relative risk (RRs) reflecting the risk of bladder cancer development associated with use of hair dye products vs. non-use. Sensitivity analyses were performed to explain any observed statistical heterogeneity and to explore the influence of specific study characteristics of the summary estimate of effect. RESULTS: Initially combining homogenous data from six case-control and one cohort study yielded a non-significant RR of 1.01 (0.92, 1.11), suggesting no association between hair dye use and bladder cancer development. Sensitivity analyses examining the influence of hair dye type, color, and study design on this suspected association showed that uncontrolled confounding and design limitations contributed to a spurious non-significant summary RR. The sensitivity analyses yielded statistically significant RRs ranging from 1.22 (1.11, 1.51) to 1.50 (1.30, 1.98), indicating that personal use of hair dye products increases bladder cancer risk by 22% to 50% vs. non-use. CONCLUSION: The available epidemiological data suggest an association between personal use of hair dye products and increased risk of bladder cancer. PMID:15736329

Risk of myocardial infarction and stroke in bipolar disorder: a systematic review and exploratory meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Prieto, M.L.; Cuéllar-Barboza, A.B.; Bobo, W.V.; Roger, V.L.; Bellivier, F.; Leboyer, M.; West, C.P.; Frye, M.A.

2016-01-01

Objective To review the evidence on and estimate the risk of myocardial infarction and stroke in bipolar disorder. Method A systematic search using MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and bibliographies (1946 – May, 2013) was conducted. Case-control and cohort studies of bipolar disorder patients age 15 or older with myocardial infarction or stroke as outcomes were included. Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed quality. Estimates of effect were summarized using random-effects meta-analysis. Results Five cohort studies including 13 115 911 participants (27 092 bipolar) were included. Due to the use of registers, different statistical methods, and inconsistent adjustment for confounders, there was significant methodological heterogeneity among studies. The exploratory meta-analysis yielded no evidence for a significant increase in the risk of myocardial infarction: [relative risk (RR): 1.09, 95% CI 0.96–1.24, P = 0.20; I2 = 6%]. While there was evidence of significant study heterogeneity, the risk of stroke in bipolar disorder was significantly increased (RR 1.74, 95% CI 1.29–2.35; P = 0.0003; I2 = 83%). Conclusion There may be a differential risk of myocardial infarction and stroke in patients with bipolar disorder. Confidence in these pooled estimates was limited by the small number of studies, significant heterogeneity and dissimilar methodological features. PMID:24850482

The Distinct Role of Comparative Risk Perceptions in a Breast Cancer Prevention Program

PubMed Central

Dillard, Amanda J.; Ubel, Peter A.; Smith, Dylan M.; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J.; Nair, Vijay; Derry, Holly A.; Zhang, Aijun; Pitsch, Rosemarie K.; Alford, Sharon Hensley; McClure, Jennifer B.; Fagerlin, Angela

2013-01-01

Background Comparative risk perceptions may rival other types of information in terms of effects on health behavior decisions. Purpose We examined associations between comparative risk perceptions, affect, and behavior while controlling for absolute risk perceptions and actual risk. Methods Women at an increased risk of breast cancer participated in a program to learn about tamoxifen which can reduce the risk of breast cancer. Women reported comparative risk perceptions of breast cancer and completed measures of anxiety, knowledge, and tamoxifen-related behavior intentions. Three months later, women reported their behavior. Results Comparative risk perceptions were positively correlated with anxiety, knowledge, intentions, and behavior three months later. After controlling for participants’ actual risk of breast cancer and absolute risk perceptions, comparative risk perceptions predicted anxiety and knowledge, but not intentions or behavior. Conclusions Comparative risk perceptions can affect patient outcomes like anxiety and knowledge independently of absolute risk perceptions and actual risk information. PMID:21698518

Method of Evaluating the Life Cycle Cost of Small Earth Dams Considering the Risk of Heavy Rainfall and Selection Method of the Optimum Countermeasure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hori, Toshikazu; Mohri, Yoshiyuki; Matsushima, Kenichi; Ariyoshi, Mitsuru

In recent years the increase in the number of heavy rainfall occurrences such as through unpredictable cloudbursts have resulted in the safety of the embankments of small earth dams needing to be improved. However, the severe financial condition of the government and local autonomous bodies necessitate the cost of improving them to be reduced. This study concerns the development of a method of evaluating the life cycle cost of small earth dams considered to pose a risk and in order to improve the safety of the downstream areas of small earth dams at minimal cost. Use of a safety evaluation method that is based on a combination of runoff analysis, saturated and unsaturated seepage analysis, and slope stability analysis enables the probability of a dam breach and its life cycle cost with the risk of heavy rainfall taken into account to be calculated. Moreover, use of the life cycle cost evaluation method will lead to the development of a technique for selecting the method of the optimal improvement or countermeasures against heavy rainfall.

Cesarean Section Rate in Singleton Primiparae and Related Factors in Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Song, Geng; Wei, Yu-Mei; Zhu, Wei-Wei; Yang, Hui-Xia

2017-01-01

Background: The cesarean section rate (CSR) has been a main concern worldwide. The present study aimed to investigate the CSR in Beijing, China, and to analyze the related factors of CS delivery. Methods: An observational study was conducted in 15 medical centers in Beijing using a systemic cluster sampling method. In total, 15,194 pregnancies were enrolled in the study between June 20, 2013 and November 30, 2013. Independent t-tests and Pearson's Chi-square test were used to examine differences between two groups, and related factors of the CSR were examined by multivariable logistic regression. Results: The CSR was 41.9% (4471/10,671) in singleton primiparae. Women who were more than 35 years old had a 7.4-fold increased risk of CS delivery compared with women <25 years old (odd ratio [OR] = 7.388, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.561–9.816, P < 0.001). Prepregnancy obese women had a 2-fold increased risk of CS delivery compared with prepregnancy normal weight women (OR = 2.058, 95% CI = 1.640–2.584, P < 0.001). The excessive weight gain group had a 1.4-fold increased risk of CS delivery compared with the adequate weight gain group (OR = 1.422, 95% CI = 1.289–1.568, P < 0.001). Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) women and DM women had an increased risk of CS delivery (1.2- and 1.7-fold, respectively) compared with normal blood glucose women. Women who were born in rural areas had a lower risk of CS delivery than did those who were born in urban areas (OR = 0.696, 95% CI = 0.625–0.775, P < 0.001). The risk of CS delivery gradually increased with a decreasing education level. Neonates weighing 3000–3499 g had the lowest CSR (36.2%). Neonates weighing <2500 g had a 2-fold increased risk of CS delivery compared with neonates weighing 3000–3499 g (OR = 2.020, 95% CI = 1.537–2.656, P < 0.001). Neonates weighing ≥4500 g had an 8.3-fold increased risk of CS delivery compared with neonates weighing 3000–3499 g (OR = 8.313, 95% CI = 4.436–15.579, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Maternal age, prepregnancy body mass index, gestational weight gain, blood glucose levels, residence, education level, and singleton fetal birth weight are all factors that might significantly affect the CSR. PMID:29052558

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: Post-partum Risk and Follow Up.

PubMed

Poola-Kella, Silpa; Steinman, Rachel A; Mesmar, Bayan; Malek, Rana

2018-01-31

Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are at an increased risk for developing metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and cardiovascular disease. In this review, we will discuss postpartum cardiovascular and diabetes risk in women with a history of GDM and different ways to improve postpartum screening. This review involves a comprehensive literature review on gestational diabetes and postpartum risk for cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus as well as post-partum screening methods. Cardiovascular risk post-partum is potentiated by increased inflammatory markers leading to worsening atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events downstream. Decreased insulin sensitivity and β cell compensation, recurrent GDM, maternal factors such as pre and post-partum weight gain and lactation may contribute to T2DM risk. Postpartum glucose testing is essential in screening women as hyperglycemia in pregnancy has long term effects on both cardiovascular disease and diabetes risk on the mother. Long and short term improvement to post-partum glucose testing is essential to decreasing cardiometabolic and diabetes risk in women with gestational diabetes mellitus. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Visual, Musculoskeletal, and Balance Complaints in AMD: A Follow-Up Study

PubMed Central

Richter, Hans Olof

2016-01-01

Purpose. To investigate whether patients with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) run a potentially higher risk of developing visual, musculoskeletal, and balance complaints than age-matched controls with normal vision. Methods. Visual assessments, self-rated visual function, self-rated visual, musculoskeletal, and balance complaints, and perceived general health were obtained in 37 AMD patients and 18 controls, at baseline and after an average of 3.8 years later. Results. At follow-up both groups reported decreased visual acuity (VA) and visual function, but only AMD patients reported significantly increased visual, musculoskeletal, and balance complaints. Decreased VA, need for larger font size when reading, need for larger magnification, and decreased self-rated visual function were identified as risk markers for increased complaints in AMD patients. These complaints were also identified as risk markers for decreased health. For controls, decreased VA and self-reported visual function were associated with increased visual and balance complaints. Conclusions. Visual deterioration was a risk marker for increased visual, musculoskeletal, balance, and health complaints in AMD patients. Specifically, magnifying visual aids, such as CCTV, were a risk marker for increased complaints in AMD patients. This calls for early and coordinated actions to treat and prevent visual, musculoskeletal, balance, and health complaints in AMD patients. PMID:27830084

Management of Occupational Exposure to Engineered Nanoparticles Through a Chance-Constrained Nonlinear Programming Approach

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhi; Yuan, Yuan; Zhang, Shu-Shen; Chen, Yu; Yang, Feng-Lin

2013-01-01

Critical environmental and human health concerns are associated with the rapidly growing fields of nanotechnology and manufactured nanomaterials (MNMs). The main risk arises from occupational exposure via chronic inhalation of nanoparticles. This research presents a chance-constrained nonlinear programming (CCNLP) optimization approach, which is developed to maximize the nanaomaterial production and minimize the risks of workplace exposure to MNMs. The CCNLP method integrates nonlinear programming (NLP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP), and handles uncertainties associated with both the nanomaterial production and workplace exposure control. The CCNLP method was examined through a single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) manufacturing process. The study results provide optimal production strategies and alternatives. It reveal that a high control measure guarantees that environmental health and safety (EHS) standards regulations are met, while a lower control level leads to increased risk of violating EHS regulations. The CCNLP optimization approach is a decision support tool for the optimization of the increasing MNMS manufacturing with workplace safety constraints under uncertainties. PMID:23531490

Dietary patterns analysis using data mining method. An application to data from the CYKIDS study.

PubMed

Lazarou, Chrystalleni; Karaolis, Minas; Matalas, Antonia-Leda; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B

2012-11-01

Data mining is a computational method that permits the extraction of patterns from large databases. We applied the data mining approach in data from 1140 children (9-13 years), in order to derive dietary habits related to children's obesity status. Rules emerged via data mining approach revealed the detrimental influence of the increased consumption of soft dinks, delicatessen meat, sweets, fried and junk food. For example, frequent (3-5 times/week) consumption of all these foods increases the risk for being obese by 75%, whereas in children who have a similar dietary pattern, but eat >2 times/week fish and seafood the risk for obesity is reduced by 33%. In conclusion patterns revealed from data mining technique refer to specific groups of children and demonstrate the effect on the risk associated with obesity status when a single dietary habit might be modified. Thus, a more individualized approach when translating public health messages could be achieved. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tanning, Skin Cancer Risk, and Prevention: A Content Analysis of Eight Popular Magazines that Target Female Readers, 1997–2006

PubMed Central

Cho, Hyunyi; Hall, Jennifer G.; Kosmoski, Carin; Fox, Rebekah L.; Mastin, Teresa

2008-01-01

The majority of tanning bed users in the U.S. are women. Previous health communication research frequently focused on the risk of skin cancer, but few studies assessed the mediated communication environment that may surround women’s beliefs and behaviors relevant to tanning. A content analysis of articles in eight magazines targeting girls, young women, older women, and women who are interested in fitness during the ten-year period of 1997–2006 was conducted. The amount of coverage of tanning bed use consequences was less than 50% of the coverage of tanning benefits. About 40% of the tanning benefits coverage touted looking healthy. The coverage of prevention methods focused on sunscreen use (55%), while the more important methods (e.g., protective clothing use) were rarely featured. Longitudinally, the coverage of the risk and prevention relevant issues increased between 1997 and 2006. The data indicate that the coverage of tanning benefits also increased during the same period. PMID:20228954

Contagious equine metritis: artificial reproduction changes the epidemiologic paradigm.

PubMed

Schulman, Martin Lance; May, Catherine Edith; Keys, Bronwyn; Guthrie, Alan John

2013-11-29

Recent CEM outbreak reports reflect a novel epidemiologic manifestation with a markedly different risk association for transmission via artificial reproduction and subsequent to inadvertent importation of unapparent carrier stallions. Artificial breeding has an increased association with horizontal or fomite-associated transmission. Reported risk factors include inadequate biosecurity protocols at centralised breeding facilities associated with stallion management and methods of semen collection, processing and transport. Detection of carriers is based on traditional bacteriology from genital swabs and despite limitations inherent to Taylorella equigenitalis is currently the gold standard applied in all international trade and movement protocols. These limitations are reported to be overcome by PCR assays improving diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, practicality, turn-around times, through-put and cost efficacy. Molecular methods have increased understanding of the Taylorelleae, facilitate epidemiologic surveillance and outbreak control strategies. Validation and international regulatory acceptance of a robust PCR-based assay and the undefined risks in association with cryopreserved semen and embryos are future areas warranting further investigation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Management of occupational exposure to engineered nanoparticles through a chance-constrained nonlinear programming approach.

PubMed

Chen, Zhi; Yuan, Yuan; Zhang, Shu-Shen; Chen, Yu; Yang, Feng-Lin

2013-03-26

Critical environmental and human health concerns are associated with the rapidly growing fields of nanotechnology and manufactured nanomaterials (MNMs). The main risk arises from occupational exposure via chronic inhalation of nanoparticles. This research presents a chance-constrained nonlinear programming (CCNLP) optimization approach, which is developed to maximize the nanaomaterial production and minimize the risks of workplace exposure to MNMs. The CCNLP method integrates nonlinear programming (NLP) and chance-constrained programming (CCP), and handles uncertainties associated with both the nanomaterial production and workplace exposure control. The CCNLP method was examined through a single-walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) manufacturing process. The study results provide optimal production strategies and alternatives. It reveal that a high control measure guarantees that environmental health and safety (EHS) standards regulations are met, while a lower control level leads to increased risk of violating EHS regulations. The CCNLP optimization approach is a decision support tool for the optimization of the increasing MNMS manufacturing with workplace safety constraints under uncertainties.

Communication of medical product risk: how effective is effective enough?

PubMed

Goldman, Stephen A

2004-01-01

Ever-increasing attention is being paid worldwide to the safety of medical products, and the risks associated with their use. The integral role of risk communication in overall risk management is demonstrated by several recent market withdrawals of drugs, in which a perceived incapability of healthcare systems to manage well-characterised, avoidable risks was a significant factor. With advances in clinical pharmacology, pharmacogenomics and pharmacoepidemiology expanding our knowledge of medical products, effective delivery of the latest safety-related information to health professionals and consumers becomes even more imperative. In this regard, it is important to evaluate whether current modes of risk communication lead to desired changes in relevant behaviours such as prescribing or drug monitoring, particularly in context with which achieved level of effectiveness is deemed acceptable. This is crucial, as there have been product-specific risk communication efforts that achieved a fair degree of success, yet were not seen as effective enough to prevent market withdrawal of the medical product in question. In the service of improving public health through enhanced risk communication, it is essential to critically assess current methods, both as to results achieved (or not), and whether each method is applicable to the various types of risks associated with medical product use. Furthermore, just as combining methods may well improve overall risk communication, there are societal and psychological factors that must be considered in attempting to maximise effectiveness. However, in assessing risk communication effectiveness, the particular benefit- risk relationship of any individual medical product must also be part of the evaluative process.

Proton pump inhibitors and the risk of pneumonia: a comparison of cohort and self-controlled case series designs

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background To compare the results of a new-user cohort study design and the self-controlled case series (SCCS) design using the risk of hospitalisation for pneumonia in those dispensed proton pump inhibitors compared to those unexposed as a case study. Methods The Australian Government Department of Veterans’ Affairs administrative claims database was used. Exposure to proton pump inhibitors and hospitalisations for pneumonia were identified over a 4 year study period 01 Jul 2007 -30 Jun 2011. The same inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to both studies, however, the SCCS study included subjects with a least one hospitalisation for pneumonia. Results There were 105,467 subjects included in the cohort study and 6775 in the SCCS. Both studies showed an increased risk of hospitalisations for pneumonia in the three defined risk periods following initiation of proton pump inhibitors compared to baseline. With the highest risk in the first 1 to 7 days (Cohort RR, 3.24; 95% CI (2.50, 4.19): SCCS: RR, 3.07; 95% CI (2.69, 3.50)). Conclusions This study has shown that the self-controlled case series method produces similar risk estimates to a new-users cohort study design when applied to the association of proton pump inhibitors and pneumonia. Exposure to a proton pump inhibitor increases the likelihood of being admitted to hospital for pneumonia, with the risk highest in the first week of treatment. PMID:23800078

Risk assessment of hazardous release in air due to the chemical production of "P. Karaminchev" company in the town of Rousse.

PubMed

Diankova, M

1998-09-01

A health risk evaluation of the lifetime population risk has been made, by using the US EPA's method of risk assessment. Several main steps have been conducted: --a hazard identification, by means of emission analysis and mathematical modeling of air concentration dispersion; a dose-response evaluation and exposure assessment, and finally--a risk characterization. The health risk evaluation was conducted, using lifetime reference concentrations and doses. As risk descriptors were applied: --the individual exposure coefficient (IEC), the hazard quotient (HQ) and the margin of exposure (MOE)--for system toxicants, and the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR)--for carcinogens. The method that was used provides an upperbound estimate, including all possible exposures. The results showed, that the emissions of hydrogen chloride, phthalates (DOF), nitrogen oxides and most of the organic solvents, released from this chemical plant, are not a source of lifetime chronic health risk for the population of any of the six evaluated residential areas of Rousse. The rest of the hazardous emissions cause a slightly increased lifetime health risk, which is entirely in the so called 'controlled risk zone' the risk descriptors vary from 1.00 to 5.00. A number of actions have been prescribed to the plant's government, most of which were realized in the short term.

Using community-based methods and a social ecological framework to explore workplace health and safety of bloqueros on the Olympic Peninsula.

PubMed

Campe, Joseph; Hoare, Lesley; Hagopian, Amy; Keifer, Matthew

2011-06-01

Occupational health and safety issues among Latino immigrants are increasingly important as increased immigration has led to a burgeoning workforce with limited English language skills or lack of documentation status. Foreign-born Latino immigrants are consistently the ethnic group with the highest occupational mortality rates in the United States. We aimed to understand and document the occupational safety and health hazards faced by a particularly at-risk Latino immigrant workforce--cedar block cutters, or bloqueros--on the Olympic Peninsula. Key informant interviews were conducted using community-based participatory methods. Qualitative analysis was guided by grounded theory and a social ecological framework. Thirteen interviews were conducted lasting 1-2 hr each. Three prominent findings arose: (1) bloqueros face occupational risks similar to those found in other forestry occupations, (2) bloqueros face unexpected risks that are likely unique to block cutting, and (3) bloqueros face four overlapping marginalization forces (societal, economical, political, and occupational) that undermine workplace health and safety. Bloqueros work low-paying, high-risk jobs with little health and safety regulation, documentation, or coverage. Workers' precarious socio-economic position and various structural factors compound workplace risks and contribute to a lack of ability to advocate for safer and healthier working conditions. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Spatial point analysis based on dengue surveys at household level in central Brazil

PubMed Central

Siqueira-Junior, João B; Maciel, Ivan J; Barcellos, Christovam; Souza, Wayner V; Carvalho, Marilia S; Nascimento, Nazareth E; Oliveira, Renato M; Morais-Neto, Otaliba; Martelli, Celina MT

2008-01-01

Background Dengue virus (DENV) affects nonimunne human populations in tropical and subtropical regions. In the Americas, dengue has drastically increased in the last two decades and Brazil is considered one of the most affected countries. The high frequency of asymptomatic infection makes difficult to estimate prevalence of infection using registered cases and to locate high risk intra-urban area at population level. The goal of this spatial point analysis was to identify potential high-risk intra-urban areas of dengue, using data collected at household level from surveys. Methods Two household surveys took place in the city of Goiania (~1.1 million population), Central Brazil in the year 2001 and 2002. First survey screened 1,586 asymptomatic individuals older than 5 years of age. Second survey 2,906 asymptomatic volunteers, same age-groups, were selected by multistage sampling (census tracts; blocks; households) using available digital maps. Sera from participants were tested by dengue virus-specific IgM/IgG by EIA. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to detect the spatial varying risk over the region. Initially without any fixed covariates, to depict the overall risk map, followed by a model including the main covariates and the year, where the resulting maps show the risk associated with living place, controlled for the individual risk factors. This method has the advantage to generate smoothed risk factors maps, adjusted by socio-demographic covariates. Results The prevalence of antibody against dengue infection was 37.3% (95%CI [35.5–39.1]) in the year 2002; 7.8% increase in one-year interval. The spatial variation in risk of dengue infection significantly changed when comparing 2001 with 2002, (ORadjusted = 1.35; p < 0.001), while controlling for potential confounders using GAM model. Also increasing age and low education levels were associated with dengue infection. Conclusion This study showed spatial heterogeneity in the risk areas of dengue when using a spatial multivariate approach in a short time interval. Data from household surveys pointed out that low prevalence areas in 2001 surveys shifted to high-risk area in consecutive year. This mapping of dengue risks should give insights for control interventions in urban areas. PMID:18937868

Noninvasive arterial measurements of vascular damage in healthy young adults: relation to coronary heart disease risk.

PubMed

Van Trijp, Marijke J C A; Uiterwaal, Cuno S P M; Bos, Willem J W; Oren, Anath; Grobbee, Diederick E; Bots, Michiel L

2006-02-01

There is an increasing interest in noninvasive measurements of early structural or functional changes in large arteries such as pulse wave velocity (PWV), carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), and augmentation index (AIx). These measurements may be applied in etiologic or prognostic research. The role of the AIx as a marker of cardiovascular risk has not fully been established. Our aim was to study whether AIx is related to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk and to compare the strength of the relations of AIx, PWV, and CIMT with cardiovascular risk in healthy young adults. Our study included 224 men and 273 women (mean age 28 years, range 27-30 years) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Young Adults (ARYA) study. Cardiovascular risk profile was determined and CHD risk was estimated using the Framingham risk score. AIx, PWV and CIMT were measured using standard methods. Data were analyzed in strata of gender using linear regression models. In men, PWV and CIMT were most strongly related to CHD risk. The increase in CHD risk per standard deviation increase in measurement was 0.24%/m/s, 95% CI (0.01;0.33) and 0.32%/mm, 95% CI (0.08;0.55), whereas the AIx was not significantly related to CHD risk (0.09 %/% 95% CI [-0.15;0.33]). In women, AIx, PWV, and CIMT were weakly but significantly related to CHD risk; there was no clear difference between the measurements. In young men, PWV and CIMT are better measures of CHD risk than AIx. In women, AIx, PWV and CIMT estimate CHD risk equally well.

HIV coreceptor phenotyping in the clinical setting.

PubMed

Low, Andrew J; Swenson, Luke C; Harrigan, P Richard

2008-01-01

The introduction of CCR5 antagonists increases the options available for constructing antiretroviral regimens. However, this option is coupled with the caveat that patients should be tested for HIV coreceptor tropism prior to initiating CCR5 antagonist-based therapy. Failure to screen for CXCR4 usage increases the risk of using an ineffective drug, thus reducing the likelihood of viral suppression and increasing their risk for developing antiretroviral resistance. This review discusses current and future methods of determining HIV tropism, with a focus on their utility in the clinical setting for screening purposes. Some of these methods include recombinant phenotypic tests, such as the Monogram Trofile assay, as well as genotype-based predictors, heteroduplex tracking assays, and flow cytometry based methods. Currently, the best evidence supports the use of phenotypic methods, although other methods of screening for HIV coreceptor usage prior to the administration of CCR5 antagonists may reduce costs and increase turnaround time over phenotypic methods. The presence of low levels of X4 virus is a challenge to all assay methods, resulting in reduced sensitivity in clinical, patient-derived samples when compared to clonally derived samples. Gaining a better understanding of the output of these assays and correlating them with clinical progression and therapy response will provide some indication on how both genotype-based, and phenotypic assays for determining HIV coreceptor usage can be improved. In addition, leveraging new technologies capable of detecting low-level minority species may provide the most significant advances in ensuring that individuals with low levels of dual/mixed tropic virus are not inadvertently prescribed CCR5 antagonists.

Radiation, Atherosclerotic Risk Factors, and Stroke Risk in Survivors of Pediatric Cancer: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mueller, Sabine, E-mail: muellers@neuropeds.ucsf.edu; Fullerton, Heather J.; Stratton, Kayla

Purpose: To test the hypotheses that (1) the increased risk of stroke conferred by childhood cranial radiation therapy (CRT) persists into adulthood; and (2) atherosclerotic risk factors further increase the stroke risk in cancer survivors. Methods and Materials: The Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a multi-institutional retrospective cohort study of 14,358 5-year survivors of childhood cancer and 4023 randomly selected sibling controls with longitudinal follow-up. Age-adjusted incidence rates of self-reported late-occurring (≥5 years after diagnosis) first stroke were calculated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent stroke predictors. Results: During a mean follow-up of 23.3 years, 292more » survivors reported a late-occurring stroke. The age-adjusted stroke rate per 100,000 person-years was 77 (95% confidence interval [CI] 62-96), compared with 9.3 (95% CI 4-23) for siblings. Treatment with CRT increased stroke risk in a dose-dependent manner: hazard ratio 5.9 (95% CI 3.5-9.9) for 30-49 Gy CRT and 11.0 (7.4-17.0) for 50+ Gy CRT. The cumulative stroke incidence in survivors treated with 50+ Gy CRT was 1.1% (95% CI 0.4-1.8%) at 10 years after diagnosis and 12% (95% CI 8.9-15.0%) at 30 years. Hypertension increased stroke hazard by 4-fold (95% CI 2.8-5.5) and in black survivors by 16-fold (95% CI 6.9-36.6). Conclusion: Young adult pediatric cancer survivors have an increased stroke risk that is associated with CRT in a dose-dependent manner. Atherosclerotic risk factors enhanced this risk and should be treated aggressively.« less

Survival and Morbidity Outcomes of Very Low Birth Weight Infants with Down Syndrome

PubMed Central

Boghossian, Nansi S.; Hansen, Nellie I.; Bell, Edward F.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Murray, Jeffrey C.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Shankaran, Seetha; Walsh, Michele C.; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVE Individuals with Down syndrome (DS) are at increased risk of several morbidities with lifelong health consequences. Little is known about mortality or morbidity risks in early infancy among very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants with DS. Our objective was to compare survival and neonatal morbidities between VLBW infants with DS and VLBW infants with other non-DS chromosomal anomalies, other non-chromosomal birth defects, and VLBW infants without major birth defects. METHODS Data were collected prospectively for infants weighing 401-1500 grams born and/or cared for at one of the study centers participating in the NICHD Neonatal Research Network from 1994 through 2008. Risk of death and morbidities including patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), late onset sepsis (LOS), retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), were compared between VLBW infants with DS and infants in the other groups. RESULTS Infants with DS were at increased risk of death (adjusted relative risk [RR] 2.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.00-3.07), PDA, NEC, LOS, and BPD relative to infants with no birth defects. Decreased risk of death (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.31-0.52) and increased risks of NEC and LOS were observed when comparing infants with DS to infants with other non-DS chromosomal anomalies. Relative to infants with non-chromosomal birth defects, infants with DS were at increased risk of PDA and NEC. CONCLUSION The increased risk of morbidities among VLBW infants with DS provides useful information for counseling parents and for caretakers in anticipating the need for enhanced surveillance for prevention of these morbidities. PMID:21098157

Methods work better when couples talk.

PubMed

Keller, S

1996-01-01

Sexual partners who communicate about reproductive health issues reduce their risk of acquiring a sexually transmitted disease (STD) or of unintended pregnancy, but few couples feel comfortable talking openly about sex. AIDS prevention programs have focused on improving couple communication, but family planning programs have emphasized women-controlled contraception as more reliable than barrier methods. The effectiveness of barrier methods would likely improve, however, if clients are counseled in couple communication. Effective communication about sexual issues requires self-confidence, and strengthening a woman's self-confidence may also improve her ability to negotiate condom use. Small discussion groups held among female factory workers in Thailand in 1993-94 led to an increase from 60% to 90% in the number of women who felt confident in discussing STD risk with a partner and to an increase from 36% to 82% in those who said they would not be embarrassed to give a partner a condom. A Nigerian study also suggested that more education may also improve prospects for couple communication and contraceptive usage. A US study showed that adolescent women who communicated openly with their partners reduced their risks of unintended pregnancy and STDs, and a Kenyan study indicated that communication increases contraceptive usage among married couples. Various projects around the world are attempting to counsel women on communication and condom negotiation, and counselors are beginning the difficult task of teaching women how to convince men to use condoms.

Association between ambient noise exposure, hearing acuity, and risk of acute occupational injury

PubMed Central

Cantley, Linda F; Galusha, Deron; Cullen, Mark R; Dixon-Ernst, Christine; Rabinowitz, Peter M; Neitzel, Richard L

2015-01-01

Objective This study aimed to examine the associations between acute workplace injury risk, ambient noise exposure, and hearing acuity, adjusting for reported hearing protection use. Methods In a cohort of 9220 aluminum manufacturing workers studied over six years (33 300 person-years, 13 323 person-jobs), multivariate mixed effects models were used to estimate relative risk (RR) of all injuries as well as serious injuries by noise exposure category and hearing threshold level (HTL) adjusting for recognized and potential confounders. Results Compared to noise <82 dBA, higher exposure was associated with elevated risk in a monotonic and statistically significant exposure–response pattern for all injuries and serious injuries with higher risk estimates observed for serious injuries [82–84.99 dBA: RR 1.26, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.96–1.64; 85–87.99 dBA: RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.05–1.85; ≥88 dBA: RR 2.29, 95% CI 1.52–3.47]. Hearing loss was associated with increased risk for all injuries, but was not a significant predictor of risk for the subset of more serious injuries. Compared to those without hearing loss, workers with HTL ≥25 dB had 21% increased all injury risk (RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.09–1.33) while those with HTL 10–24.99 dB had 6% increased risk (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00–1.13). Reported hearing protection type did not predict injury risk. Conclusion Noise exposure levels as low as 85 dBA may increase workplace injury risk. HTL was associated with increased risk for all, but not the subset of serious, injuries. Additional study is needed both to confirm the observed associations and explore causal pathways. PMID:25137556

Indoor tanning in businesses and homes and risk of melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer in two US case-control studies

PubMed Central

Ferrucci, Leah M.; Vogel, Rachel Isaksson; Cartmel, Brenda; Lazovich, DeAnn; Mayne, Susan T.

2014-01-01

Background Indoor tanning increases skin cancer risk. Beyond early research describing melanoma and sun lamps, few recent reports describe where individuals indoor tan and whether skin cancer risk varies by location (business, home-based). Objective Assess where individuals tanned indoors and skin cancer risk by tanning device location. Methods Multivariate logistic regression in two US case-control studies of melanoma (1,161 cases, 1,083 controls, ages 25–59) and early-onset basal cell carcinoma (BCC) (375 cases, 382 controls, under age 40) conducted between 2004 and 2010. Results Most indoor tanners (86.4–95.1%), especially younger individuals, tanned exclusively in businesses. Persons who used indoor tanning exclusively in businesses were at increased risk of melanoma (OR=1.82, 95% CI=1.47–2.26) and BCC (OR=1.69, 95% CI=1.15–2.48) compared to non-users. Melanoma risk was also increased in the small number who reported tanning indoors only at home relative to non-users (OR=4.14, 95% CI=1.75–9.78); 67.6% used sun lamps. Limitations Self-reported tanning, potential recall bias. Conclusion Business only tanning, despite claims of “safe" tanning, was positively associated with a significant risk of melanoma and BCC. Home tanning was uncommon and mostly from sun lamps which were rarely used by younger participants. Regardless of location, indoor tanning was associated with increased risk of skin cancer. PMID:25062934

Case–control study of paternal occupation and childhood leukaemia in Great Britain, 1962–2006

PubMed Central

Keegan, T J; Bunch, K J; Vincent, T J; King, J C; O'Neill, K A; Kendall, G M; MacCarthy, A; Fear, N T; MFG, Murphy

2012-01-01

Background: Paternal occupational exposures have been proposed as a risk factor for childhood leukaemia. This study investigates possible associations between paternal occupational exposure and childhood leukaemia in Great Britain. Methods: The National Registry of Childhood Tumours provided all cases of childhood leukaemia born and diagnosed in Great Britain between 1962 and 2006. Controls were matched on sex, period of birth and birth registration subdistrict. Fathers' occupations were assigned to 1 or more of 33 exposure groups. Social class was derived from father's occupation at the time of the child's birth. Results: A total of 16 764 cases of childhood leukaemia were ascertained. One exposure group, paternal social contact, was associated with total childhood leukaemia (odds ratio 1.14, 1.05–1.23); this association remained significant when adjusted for social class. The subtypes lymphoid leukaemia (LL) and acute myeloid leukaemia showed increased risk with paternal exposure to social contact before adjustment for social class. Risk of other leukaemias was significantly increased by exposure to electromagnetic fields, persisting after adjustment for social class. For total leukaemia, the risks for exposure to lead and exhaust fumes were significantly <1. Occupationally derived social class was associated with risk of LL, with the risk being increased in the higher social classes. Conclusion: Our results showed some support for a positive association between childhood leukaemia risk and paternal occupation involving social contact. Additionally, LL risk increased with higher paternal occupational social class. PMID:22968649

Meat-cooking mutagens and risk of renal cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Daniel, C R; Schwartz, K L; Colt, J S; Dong, L M; Ruterbusch, J J; Purdue, M P; Cross, A J; Rothman, N; Davis, F G; Wacholder, S; Graubard, B I; Chow, W H; Sinha, R

2011-01-01

Background: High-temperature cooked meat contains two families of carcinogens, heterocyclic amines (HCAs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Given the kidneys' role in metabolism and urinary excretion of these compounds, we investigated meat-derived mutagens, as well as meat intake and cooking methods, in a population-based case–control study conducted in metropolitan Detroit and Chicago. Methods: Newly diagnosed, histologically confirmed adenocarcinoma of the renal parenchyma (renal cell carcinoma (RCC)) cases (n=1192) were frequency matched on age, sex, and race to controls (n=1175). The interviewer-administered Diet History Questionnaire (DHQ) included queries for meat-cooking methods and doneness with photographic aids. Levels of meat mutagens were estimated using the DHQ in conjunction with the CHARRED database. Results: The risk of RCC increased with intake of barbecued meat (Ptrend=0.04) and the PAH, benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval, highest vs lowest quartile: 1.50 (1.14, 1.95), Ptrend=0.001). With increasing BaP intake, the risk of RCC was more than twofold in African Americans and current smokers (Pinteraction<0.05). We found no association for HCAs or overall meat intake. Conclusion: BaP intake, a PAH in barbecued meat, was positively associated with RCC. These biologically plausible findings advocate further epidemiological investigation into dietary intake of BaP and risk of RCC. PMID:21897389

A comparison of imputation techniques for handling missing predictor values in a risk model with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Ambler, Gareth; Omar, Rumana Z; Royston, Patrick

2007-06-01

Risk models that aim to predict the future course and outcome of disease processes are increasingly used in health research, and it is important that they are accurate and reliable. Most of these risk models are fitted using routinely collected data in hospitals or general practices. Clinical outcomes such as short-term mortality will be near-complete, but many of the predictors may have missing values. A common approach to dealing with this is to perform a complete-case analysis. However, this may lead to overfitted models and biased estimates if entire patient subgroups are excluded. The aim of this paper is to investigate a number of methods for imputing missing data to evaluate their effect on risk model estimation and the reliability of the predictions. Multiple imputation methods, including hotdecking and multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE), were investigated along with several single imputation methods. A large national cardiac surgery database was used to create simulated yet realistic datasets. The results suggest that complete case analysis may produce unreliable risk predictions and should be avoided. Conditional mean imputation performed well in our scenario, but may not be appropriate if using variable selection methods. MICE was amongst the best performing multiple imputation methods with regards to the quality of the predictions. Additionally, it produced the least biased estimates, with good coverage, and hence is recommended for use in practice.

Mapping child maltreatment risk: a 12-year spatio-temporal analysis of neighborhood influences.

PubMed

Gracia, Enrique; López-Quílez, Antonio; Marco, Miriam; Lila, Marisol

2017-10-18

'Place' matters in understanding prevalence variations and inequalities in child maltreatment risk. However, most studies examining ecological variations in child maltreatment risk fail to take into account the implications of the spatial and temporal dimensions of neighborhoods. In this study, we conduct a high-resolution small-area study to analyze the influence of neighborhood characteristics on the spatio-temporal epidemiology of child maltreatment risk. We conducted a 12-year (2004-2015) small-area Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemiological study with all families with child maltreatment protection measures in the city of Valencia, Spain. As neighborhood units, we used 552 census block groups. Cases were geocoded using the family address. Neighborhood-level characteristics analyzed included three indicators of neighborhood disadvantage-neighborhood economic status, neighborhood education level, and levels of policing activity-, immigrant concentration, and residential instability. Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling and disease mapping methods were used to provide area-specific risk estimations. Results from a spatio-temporal autoregressive model showed that neighborhoods with low levels of economic and educational status, with high levels of policing activity, and high immigrant concentration had higher levels of substantiated child maltreatment risk. Disease mapping methods were used to analyze areas of excess risk. Results showed chronic spatial patterns of high child maltreatment risk during the years analyzed, as well as stability over time in areas of low risk. Areas with increased or decreased child maltreatment risk over the years were also observed. A spatio-temporal epidemiological approach to study the geographical patterns, trends over time, and the contextual determinants of child maltreatment risk can provide a useful method to inform policy and action. This method can offer a more accurate description of the problem, and help to inform more localized prevention and intervention strategies. This new approach can also contribute to an improved epidemiological surveillance system to detect ecological variations in risk, and to assess the effectiveness of the initiatives to reduce this risk.

Predictive genetic testing for the identification of high-risk groups: a simulation study on the impact of predictive ability

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Genetic risk models could potentially be useful in identifying high-risk groups for the prevention of complex diseases. We investigated the performance of this risk stratification strategy by examining epidemiological parameters that impact the predictive ability of risk models. Methods We assessed sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for all possible risk thresholds that can define high-risk groups and investigated how these measures depend on the frequency of disease in the population, the frequency of the high-risk group, and the discriminative accuracy of the risk model, as assessed by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). In a simulation study, we modeled genetic risk scores of 50 genes with equal odds ratios and genotype frequencies, and varied the odds ratios and the disease frequency across scenarios. We also performed a simulation of age-related macular degeneration risk prediction based on published odds ratios and frequencies for six genetic risk variants. Results We show that when the frequency of the high-risk group was lower than the disease frequency, positive predictive value increased with the AUC but sensitivity remained low. When the frequency of the high-risk group was higher than the disease frequency, sensitivity was high but positive predictive value remained low. When both frequencies were equal, both positive predictive value and sensitivity increased with increasing AUC, but higher AUC was needed to maximize both measures. Conclusions The performance of risk stratification is strongly determined by the frequency of the high-risk group relative to the frequency of disease in the population. The identification of high-risk groups with appreciable combinations of sensitivity and positive predictive value requires higher AUC. PMID:21797996

Smoking Cessation Increases Short-Term Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Irrespective of Weight Gain: The Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Oba, Shino; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Waki, Kayo; Nanri, Akiko; Kato, Masayuki; Takahashi, Yoshihiko; Poudel-Tandukar, Kalpana; Matsushita, Yumi; Inoue, Manami; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2012-01-01

Objective The effect of smoking cessation on the risk of diabetes has been reported previously. However, it is unknown whether the association is influenced by weight gain and other potential risk factors. Methods The Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study established in 1990 for Cohort I and in 1993 for Cohort II provided data, and 25,875 men and 33,959 women were analyzed. The response rate to the baseline questionnaire was 80.9%, and 68.4% of the respondents participated both the 5- and 10-year follow-up surveys. Smoking cessation was noted during the initial five years and the development of diabetes was reported in the subsequent five years. Results An increased risk was observed among individuals who newly quit smoking compared with never smokers among men (odds ratio (OR) = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.03–1.94) and women (OR = 2.84, CI = 1.53–5.29). The risk of developing diabetes among male new quitters who gained 3 kg or more during the 5-year follow-up did not substantially differ from the risk among male never smokers with less than 3 kg of weight gain or no weight gain, while an increased risk was observed among male new quitters with less or no weight gain (OR = 1.46, 95%CI 1.00–2.14). An insignificant increased risk was observed among male new quitters with a family history of diabetes compared with male never smokers with a family history of diabetes. The risk was more than twice as high for male new quitters who used to smoke 25 or more cigarettes per day compared with never smokers (OR = 2.15, 95%CI: 1.34–3.47). Discussion An increased risk of diabetes was implied among individuals who quit smoking. However, the increased risk was not implied among those who gained weight over the 5-years of follow-up. Those who had major risk factors for diabetes or who smoked heavier had a higher risk. PMID:22879858

Attitudes towards cannabis use and genetic testing for schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Schiffman, Jason; Lawrence, Ryan E.; Demro, Caroline; Appelbaum, Paul S.; Dixon, Lisa

2014-01-01

Aim Within schizophrenia, genetic factors contribute greatly to risk, yet genetic testing for the disorder is not available. For some individuals with specific genotypes, cannabis use may increase risk of schizophrenia. It is possible that genetic tests could be offered in the future to inform individuals of the risk of schizophrenia if they use cannabis. Previous research, however, provides little guidance on how young adults might respond to such tests. Methods We assessed a group of young adults (n = 83) to determine how the perceived magnitude of increased risk for schizophrenia in the presence of cannabis use influences decisions to undergo genetic testing, as well as subsequent attitudes and intentions towards cannabis use. Results Participants were significantly more likely to indicate willingness to get tested if the results identified a 10% risk versus a 2% risk of schizophrenia. Participants also indicated that if the results of their test reflected increased risk due to cannabis use, it would be more important to avoid cannabis in the 10% risk scenario as compared to the 2% risk scenario. These findings remained consistent among a subset of participants who indicated cannabis use. Conclusions Results suggest that cannabis users and non-users were positively influenced in terms of intentions to change behavior based on the magnitude of risk conveyed by genetic testing. These findings provide an initial step towards understanding young people’s attitudes towards genetic testing and may help prepare interventions specifically tailored around cannabis use reduction for people at risk for schizophrenia. PMID:24957110

Coffee Consumption and Risk of Renal Cell Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Antwi, Samuel O.; Eckel-Passow, Jeanette E.; Diehl, Nancy D.; Serie, Daniel J.; Custer, Kaitlynn M.; Arnold, Michelle L.; Wu, Kevin J.; Cheville, John C.; Thiel, David D; Leibovich, Bradley C.; Parker, Alexander S.

2017-01-01

Background Studies have suggested an inverse association between coffee consumption and risk of renal cell carcinoma (RCC); however, data regarding decaffeinated coffee are limited. Methods We conducted a case-control study of 669 incident RCC cases and 1,001 frequency-matched controls. Participants completed identical risk factor questionnaires that solicited information usual coffee consumption habits, and they were categorized as non-coffee, caffeinated coffee, decaffeinated coffee, or both caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee drinkers. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using logistic regression, adjusting for multiple risk factors for RCC. Results Compared with no coffee consumption, we found an inverse association between caffeinated coffee consumption and RCC risk (OR=0.74; 95% CI=0.57–0.99), whereas we observed a trend toward increased risk of RCC for consumption of decaffeinated coffee (OR=1.47; 95% CI=0.98–2.19). Furthermore, decaffeinated coffee consumption was associated with increased risk of the clear cell RCC (ccRCC) subtype, particularly the aggressive form of ccRCC (OR=1.80; 95%CI=1.01–3.22). Conclusions Consumption of caffeinated coffee is associated with reduced risk of RCC, while decaffeinated coffee consumption was associated with an increase in risk of aggressive ccRCC. Further inquiry is warranted in large prospective studies and should include assessment of dose-response associations. PMID:28647866

Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xin

2017-04-01

The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

Methods of Economic Valuation of The Health Risks Associated with Nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shalhevet, S.; Haruvy, N.

The worldwide market for nanomaterials is growing rapidly, but relatively little is still known about the potential risks associated with these materials. The potential health hazards associated with exposure to nanomaterials may lead in the future to increased health costs as well as increased economic costs to the companies involved, as has happened in the past in the case of asbestos. Therefore, it is important to make an initial estimate of the potential costs associated with these health hazards, and to prepare ahead with appropriate health insurance for individuals and financial insurance for companies. While several studies have examined the environmental and health hazards of different nanomaterials by performing life cycle impact assessments, so far these studies have concentrated on the cost of production, and did not estimate the economic impact of the health hazards. This paper discusses methods of evaluating the economic impact of potential health hazards on the public. The proposed method is based on using life cycle impact assessment studies of nanomaterials to estimate the DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) associated with the increased probability of these health hazards. The economic valuation of DALY's can be carried out based on the income lost and the costs of medical treatment. The total expected increase in cost depends on the increase in the statistical probability of each disease.

Immorally obtained principal increases investors' risk preference.

PubMed

Chen, Chuqian; Chen, Jiaxin; He, Guibing

2017-01-01

Capital derived from immoral sources is increasingly circulated in today's financial markets. The moral associations of capital are important, although their impact on investment remains unknown. This research aims to explore the influence of principal source morality on investors' risk preferences. Three studies were conducted in this regard. Study 1 finds that investors are more risk-seeking when their principal is earned immorally (through lying), whereas their risk preferences do not change when they invest money earned from neutral sources after engaging in immoral behavior. Study 2 reveals that guilt fully mediates the relationship between principal source morality and investors' risk preferences. Studies 3a and 3b introduce a new immoral principal source and a new manipulation method to improve external validity. Guilt is shown to the decrease the subjective value of morally flawed principal, leading to higher risk preference. The findings show the influence of morality-related features of principal on people's investment behavior and further support mental account theory. The results also predict the potential threats of "grey principal" to market stability.

Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield Risk Management of Adenocarcinoma: The Future of Imaging?

PubMed

Foley, Finbar; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Boland, Jennifer M; Karwoski, Ronald A; Maldonado, Fabien; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

2016-01-01

Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impact of vehicle moving violations and freeway traffic flow on crash risk: An application of plugin development for microsimulation.

PubMed

Wang, Junhua; Kong, Yumeng; Fu, Ting; Stipancic, Joshua

2017-01-01

This paper presents the use of the Aimsun microsimulation program to simulate vehicle violating behaviors and observe their impact on road traffic crash risk. Plugins for violations of speeding, slow driving, and abrupt stopping were developed using Aimsun's API and SDK module. A safety analysis plugin for investigating probability of rear-end collisions was developed, and a method for analyzing collision risk is proposed. A Fuzzy C-mean Clustering algorithm was developed to identify high risk states in different road segments over time. Results of a simulation experiment based on the G15 Expressway in Shanghai showed that abrupt stopping had the greatest impact on increasing collision risk, and the impact of violations increased with traffic volume. The methodology allows for the evaluation and monitoring of risks, alerting of road hazards, and identification of hotspots, and could be applied to the operations of existing facilities or planning of future ones.

Risk factors for UK Plasmodium falciparum cases

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background An increasing proportion of malaria cases diagnosed in UK residents with a history of travel to malaria endemic areas are due to Plasmodium falciparum. Methods In order to identify travellers at most risk of acquiring malaria a proportional hazards model was used to estimate the risk of acquiring malaria stratified by purpose of travel and age whilst adjusting for entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and duration of stay in endemic countries. Results Travellers visiting friends and relatives and business travellers were found to have significantly higher hazard of acquiring malaria (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) relative to that of holiday makers 7.4, 95% CI 6.4–8.5, p < 0. 0001 and HR 3.4, 95% CI 2.9-3.8, p < 0. 0001, respectively). All age-groups were at lower risk than children aged 0–15 years. Conclusions These estimates of the increased risk for business travellers and those visiting friends and relatives should be used to inform programmes to improve awareness of the risks of malaria when travelling. PMID:25091803

The impact of vehicle moving violations and freeway traffic flow on crash risk: An application of plugin development for microsimulation

PubMed Central

Kong, Yumeng; Stipancic, Joshua

2017-01-01

This paper presents the use of the Aimsun microsimulation program to simulate vehicle violating behaviors and observe their impact on road traffic crash risk. Plugins for violations of speeding, slow driving, and abrupt stopping were developed using Aimsun’s API and SDK module. A safety analysis plugin for investigating probability of rear-end collisions was developed, and a method for analyzing collision risk is proposed. A Fuzzy C-mean Clustering algorithm was developed to identify high risk states in different road segments over time. Results of a simulation experiment based on the G15 Expressway in Shanghai showed that abrupt stopping had the greatest impact on increasing collision risk, and the impact of violations increased with traffic volume. The methodology allows for the evaluation and monitoring of risks, alerting of road hazards, and identification of hotspots, and could be applied to the operations of existing facilities or planning of future ones. PMID:28886141

A case-control study of airways obstruction among construction workers.

PubMed

Dement, John; Welch, Laura; Ringen, Knut; Quinn, Patricia; Chen, Anna; Haas, Scott

2015-10-01

While smoking is the major cause of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), occupational exposures to vapors, gases, dusts, and fumes (VGDF) increase COPD risk. This case-control study estimated the risk of COPD attributable to occupational exposures among construction workers. The study population included 834 cases and 1243 controls participating in a national medical screening program for older construction workers between 1997 and 2013. Qualitative exposure indices were developed based on lifetime work and exposure histories. Approximately 18% (95% CI = 2-24%) of COPD risk can be attributed to construction-related exposures, which are additive to the risk contributed by smoking. A measure of all VGDF exposures combined was a strong predictor of COPD risk. Construction workers are at increased risk of COPD as a result of broad and complex effects of many exposures acting independently or interactively. Control methods should be implemented to prevent worker exposures, and smoking cessation should be promoted. © 2015 The Authors. American Journal of Industrial Medicine Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Early identification and high-risk strategies for bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Correll, Christoph U; Penzner, Julie B; Lencz, Todd; Auther, Andrea; Smith, Christopher W; Malhotra, Anil K; Kane, John M; Cornblatt, Barbara A

2007-06-01

To describe and compare the relative merits of different identification strategies for individuals at risk for bipolar disorder (BPD). Selective review of data that support early identification in BPD, with a particular focus on emerging clinical high-risk strategies. Early detection of individuals at risk for BPD can utilize genetic, endophenotypic and clinical methods. Most published work focuses on genetic familial endophenotypic risk markers for BPD. However, despite encouraging results, problems with specificity and sensitivity limit the application of these data to early prevention programs. In addition, offspring studies of BPD patients systematically exclude the majority of subjects without a first-degree bipolar relative. On the other hand, emerging work in the clinical-high-risk arena has already produced encouraging results. Although still preliminary, the identification of individuals in subsyndromal or attenuated symptom 'prodromal' stages of BPD seems to be an under-researched area that holds considerable promise deserving increased attention. Required next steps include the development of rating tools for attenuated and subsyndromal manic and depressive symptoms and of prodromal criteria that will allow prodromal symptomatology to be systematically studied in patients with recent-onset bipolar, as well as in prospective population-based phenomenology trials and attenuated symptom-based high-risk studies. Given the current limitations of each early identification method, combining clinical, endophenotypic and genetic strategies will increase prediction accuracy. Since reliable biological markers for BPD have not been established and since most patients with BPD lack a first-degree relative with this disorder, clinical high-risk approaches have great potential to inform early identification and intervention programs.

Comparing factors of vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities affected by landslides in Eastern Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Dubois, Jerome; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2010-05-01

This paper describes a methodology for assessing and quantifying vulnerability and resilience of mountain communities in Eastern Nepal increasingly affected by landslides and flooding. We are interested in improving our understanding of the complex interactions between land use, landslides and multiple dimensions of risk, vulnerability and resilience to better target risk management strategies. Our approach is based on assessing underlying social, ecological and physical factors that cause vulnerability and on the other hand, those resources and capacities that increase resilience. Increasing resilience to disasters is frequently used by NGOs, governments and donors as the main goal of disaster risk reduction policies and practices. If we are to increase resilience to disasters, we need better guidance and tools for defining, assessing and monitoring its parameters. To do so, we are establishing a methodology for quantifying and mapping an index of resilience to compare resilience factors between households and communities based on interdisciplinary research methods: remote sensing, GIS, qualitative and quantitative risk assessments, participatory risk mapping, household questionnaires and focus groups discussions. Our study applied this methodology to several communities in Eastern Nepal where small, frequent landslides are greatly affecting rural lives and livelihoods. These landslides are not captured by headlines or official statistics but are examples of cumulative, hidden disasters, which are impacting everyday life and rural poverty in the Himalayas. Based on experience, marginalized populations are often aware of the physical risks and the limitations of their land. However, they continue to live in dangerous places out of necessity and for the economic or infrastructure opportunities offered. We compare two communities in Nepal, both affected by landslides but with different land use, migration patterns, education levels, social networks, risk reduction and coping strategies. Stone quarrying and road construction, offering economic opportunities, are aggravating landslide problems. The villages are faced with a delicate balance between economic development and physical risk in this fragile terrain. Based on our comparison, we discern which factors contribute to vulnerability and resilience, while drawing conclusions about the limitations of these concepts for developing risk management strategies. Our goal is to keep this method relatively simple, low cost and useful to decision-makers and communities for managing and designing integrated development and risk management approaches under changing climate conditions.

Tissue factor pathway inhibitor, activated protein C resistance, and risk of ischemic stroke due to postmenopausal hormone therapy

PubMed Central

Rossouw, Jacques E; Johnson, Karen C; Pettinger, Mary; Cushman, Mary; Sandset, Per Morten; Kuller, Lewis; Rosendaal, Frits; Rosing, Jan; Wasserthal-Smoller, Sylvia; Martin, Lisa W; Manson, JoAnn E; Lakshminarayan, Kamakshi; Merino, Jose G; Lynch, John

2012-01-01

Background and Purpose To test whether changes in plasma tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI) levels or activated protein C resistance (normalized APC resistance ratio, nAPCsr) modify the increased risk of ischemic stroke due to postmenopausal hormone therapy (PHT). Methods Nested case-control study of 455 cases of ischemic stroke and 565 matched controls in the Women’s Health Initiative trials of PHT. Results Baseline free TFPI was associated with ischemic stroke risk, OR (95% CI) per SD increase = 1.17 (1.01, 1.37, p=0.039, but baseline nAPCsr was not, OR per SD increase = 0.89 (0.75, 1.05), p=0.15. Baseline TFPI levels and nAPCsr did not modify the effect of PHT on ischemic stroke. Treatment-induced mean changes of -28% in free TFPI and +65% in nAPCsr did not change the risk of ischemic stroke (interaction p = 0.452 and 0.971 respectively). In subgroup analyses baseline nAPCsr was inversely associated with lacunar strokes, OR per SD increase = 0.74 (0.57, 0.96), p=0.025, and baseline free TFPI interacted with treatment to increase large vessel atherosclerotic strokes, p=0.008. Conclusions Pro-coagulant changes in TFPI or nAPCsr do not modify the increased ischemic stroke risk due to PHT. PMID:22363056

Implementing systematic review techniques in chemical risk assessment: challenges, opportunities and recommendations

PubMed Central

Whaley, Paul; Halsall, Crispin; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Benford, Diane; Aiassa, Elisa; Bilotta, Gary; Coggon, David; Dempsey, Ciara; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel; FitzGerald, Rex; Gee, David; Hoffmann, Sebastian; Lam, Juleen; Lassersson, Toby; Levy, Len; Lipworth, Steven; Ross, Sarah Mackenzie; Martin, Olwenn; Meads, Catherine; Meyer-Baron, Monika; Miller, James; Pease, Camilla; Rooney, Andrew; Sapiets, Alison; Stewart, Gavin; Taylor, David

2016-01-01

Systematic review (SR) is a rigorous, protocol-driven approach designed to minimise error and bias when summarising the body of research evidence relevant to a specific scientific question. Taking as a comparator the use of SR in synthesising research in healthcare, we argue that SR methods could also pave the way for a “step change” in the transparency, objectivity and communication of chemical risk assessments (CRA) in Europe and elsewhere. We suggest that current controversies around the safety of certain chemicals are partly due to limitations in current CRA procedures which have contributed to ambiguity about the health risks posed by these substances. We present an overview of how SR methods can be applied to the assessment of risks from chemicals, and indicate how challenges in adapting SR methods from healthcare research to the CRA context might be overcome. Regarding the latter, we report the outcomes from a workshop exploring how to increase uptake of SR methods, attended by experts representing a wide range of fields related to chemical toxicology, risk analysis and SR. Priorities which were identified include: the conduct of CRA-focused prototype SRs; the development of a recognised standard of reporting and conduct for SRs in toxicology and CRA; and establishing a network to facilitate research, communication and training in SR methods. We see this paper as a milestone in the creation of a research climate that fosters communication between experts in CRA and SR and facilitates wider uptake of SR methods into CRA. PMID:26687863

Heavy metals in soil at a waste electrical and electronic equipment processing area in China.

PubMed

Gu, Weihua; Bai, Jianfeng; Yao, Haiyan; Zhao, Jing; Zhuang, Xuning; Huang, Qing; Zhang, Chenglong; Wang, JingWei

2017-11-01

For the objective of evaluating the contamination degree of heavy metals and analysing its variation trend in soil at a waste electrical and electronic equipment processing area in Shanghai, China, evaluation methods, which include single factor index method, geo-accumulation index method, comprehensive pollution index method, and potential ecological risk index method, were adopted in this study. The results revealed that the soil at a waste electrical and electronic equipment processing area was polluted by arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, zinc, and chromium. It also demonstrated that the concentrations of heavy metals were increased over time. Exceptionally, the average value of the metalloid (arsenic) was 73.31 mg kg -1 in 2014, while it was 58.31 mg kg -1 in the first half of 2015, and it was 2.93 times and 2.33 times higher than that of the Chinese Environmental Quality Standard for Soil in 2014 and the first half of 2015, respectively. The sequences of the contamination degree of heavy metals in 2014 and the first half of 2015 were cadmium > lead > copper > chromium > zinc and cadmium > lead > chromium > zinc > copper. From the analysis of the potential ecological risk index method, arsenic and cadmium had higher ecological risk than other heavy metals. The integrated ecological risk index of heavy metals (cadmium, copper, lead, zinc, and chromium) and metalloid (arsenic) was 394.10 in 2014, while it was 656.16 in the first half of 2015, thus documenting a strong ecological risk.

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended. The case studies of specific territories are performed using large-scale risk assessment methods. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting an avalanche risk assessment approach on example of the developing but poorly researched ski resort areas in the North Caucasus. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (acceptable, admissible and unacceptable) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to acceptable level or better. It makes possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different mountain regions, analyze it and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures. At present, we are developing methods of avalanche risk assessment in economic performance. It conceder costs of objects located in avalanche prone area, traffic density values and probability of financial loss.

Increasing Treatment Seeking Among At-Risk Service Members Returning from Warzones

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-03-01

medications. Overdosing on medications is also the most frequently reported method when asked if they have a plan for suicide. Other reported methods...involve guns, cutting, car accidents, and carbon monoxide poisoning. One participant died from heart failure related to the use of fentanyl during

Fast Foods, Sweets and Beverage Consumption and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: A Case-Control Study in Jordan

PubMed Central

Tayyem, Reema F; Bawadi, Hiba A; Shehadah, Ihab; Bani-Hani, Kamal E; Takruri, Hamed; Al-Jaberi, Tareq; Heath, Dennis D

2018-01-01

Background: The effects of consuming fast foods, sweets and beverages on the development of colorectal cancer (CRC) are unclear. The aim of this case-control study was to assess possible associations between the consumption of different fast foods, sweets and beverages and CRC risk in a Jordanian population. Methods: Two hundred and twenty diagnosed CRC cases and 281 controls were enrolled. Diet history was obtained using a validated quantitative questionnaire. Results: Consumption of some types of fast food, and particularly falafel, was associated with an increased risk of developing CRC. Elevated risk was found for potato and corn chips with an AOR of 4.36 (95%CI: 1.24-15.28) for daily consumption and 3.33 (95%CI: 1.00-11.11) for ≥5 servings/week. Consuming 1-2 or >5 servings per week of fried potatoes or 2-3 servings per week of chicken in sandwiches also increased the risk while exposure to fresh tomato juice and hot pepper sauce on a monthly basis appeared to exert a protective effect. Conclusions: Consumption of fried fast food items was significantly linked with an increased risk of developing CRC in Jordan. PMID:29374411

Glaucoma and quality of life: fall and driving risk.

PubMed

Montana, Cynthia L; Bhorade, Anjali M

2018-03-01

Numerous population-based studies suggest that glaucoma is an independent risk factor for falling and motor vehicle collisions, particularly for older adults. These adverse events lead to increased healthcare expenditures and decreased quality of life. Current research priorities, therefore, include identifying factors that predispose glaucoma patients to falling and unsafe driving, and developing screening strategies and targeted rehabilitation. The purpose of this article is to review recent studies that address these priorities. Studies continue to support that glaucoma patients, particularly those with advanced disease, have an increased risk of falling or unsafe driving. Risk factors, however, remain variable and include severity and location of visual field defects, contrast sensitivity, and performance on divided attention tasks. Such variability is likely because of the multifactorial nature of ambulating and driving and compensatory strategies used by patients. Falls and unsafe driving remain a serious public health issue for older adults with glaucoma. Ambulation and driving are complex tasks and there is no consensus yet, regarding the best methods for risk stratification and targeted interventions to increase safety. Therefore, comprehensive and individualized assessments are recommended to most effectively evaluate a patient's risk for falling or unsafe driving.

Developing a new case based computer-aided detection scheme and an adaptive cueing method to improve performance in detecting mammographic lesions

PubMed Central

Tan, Maxine; Aghaei, Faranak; Wang, Yunzhi; Zheng, Bin

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate a new method to improve performance of computer-aided detection (CAD) schemes of screening mammograms with two approaches. In the first approach, we developed a new case based CAD scheme using a set of optimally selected global mammographic density, texture, spiculation, and structural similarity features computed from all four full-field digital mammography (FFDM) images of the craniocaudal (CC) and mediolateral oblique (MLO) views by using a modified fast and accurate sequential floating forward selection feature selection algorithm. Selected features were then applied to a “scoring fusion” artificial neural network (ANN) classification scheme to produce a final case based risk score. In the second approach, we combined the case based risk score with the conventional lesion based scores of a conventional lesion based CAD scheme using a new adaptive cueing method that is integrated with the case based risk scores. We evaluated our methods using a ten-fold cross-validation scheme on 924 cases (476 cancer and 448 recalled or negative), whereby each case had all four images from the CC and MLO views. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was AUC = 0.793±0.015 and the odds ratio monotonically increased from 1 to 37.21 as CAD-generated case based detection scores increased. Using the new adaptive cueing method, the region based and case based sensitivities of the conventional CAD scheme at a false positive rate of 0.71 per image increased by 2.4% and 0.8%, respectively. The study demonstrated that supplementary information can be derived by computing global mammographic density image features to improve CAD-cueing performance on the suspicious mammographic lesions. PMID:27997380

Meat intake, methods and degrees of cooking and breast cancer risk in the MCC-Spain study.

PubMed

Boldo, Elena; Castelló, Adela; Aragonés, Nuria; Amiano, Pilar; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Castaño-Vinyals, Gemma; Martín, Vicente; Guevara, Marcela; Urtiaga, Carmen; Dierssen-Sotos, Trinidad; Fernández-Tardón, Guillermo; Moreno, Victor; Solans, Marta; Peiró, Rosanna; Capelo, Rocio; Gómez-Acebo, Inés; Castilla, Jesús; Molina, Antonio José; Castells, Xavier; Altzibar, Jone M; Lope, Virginia; Kogevinas, Manolis; Romieu, Isabelle; Pollán, Marina

2018-04-01

To analyse the relationship of the risk of breast cancer (BC) to meat intake, preference regarding degree of cooking ('doneness') and cooking methods, using data from a population-based case-control study (MCC-Spain). 1006 Histologically confirmed incident BC cases and 1370 controls were recruited in 10 Spanish provinces. Participants were 23-85 years old. They answered an epidemiological survey and a food frequency questionnaire. BC risk was assessed overall, by menopausal status and by pathological subtypes, using logistic and multinomial regression mixed models adjusted for known confounding factors and including province as a random effects term. Breast cancer and pathological subtype. High total intake of meat (OR Q4-Q1 (95% IC) = 1.39 (1.03-1.88)) was associated with increased BC risk among post-menopausal women. Similar results were found for processed/cured meat (OR Q4-Q1 (95% IC) = 1.47 (1.10-1.97)), and this association was particularly strong for triple-negative tumours (ER-, PR- and HER2-) (OR Q4-Q1 (95% IC) = 2.52 (1.15-5.49)). Intakes of well-done (OR well-donevsrare (95% CI) = 1.62 (1.15-2.30)) and stewed (OR (95% CI) = 1.49 (1.20-1.84)) red meat were associated with increased BC risk, with a high risk observed for HR+ tumours (ER+/PR+ and HER2-). Pan-fried/bread-coated fried white meat, but not doneness preference, was associated with an increased BC risk for all women (OR (95% CI) = 1.38 (1.14-1.65)), with a stronger association for pre-menopausal women (OR (95% CI) = 1.78 (1.29-2.46)). The risk of developing BC could be reduced by moderating the consumption of well-done or stewed red meat, pan-fried/bread-coated fried white meat and, especially, processed/cured meat. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of prognostic models developed using standardised image features from different PET automated segmentation methods.

PubMed

Parkinson, Craig; Foley, Kieran; Whybra, Philip; Hills, Robert; Roberts, Ashley; Marshall, Chris; Staffurth, John; Spezi, Emiliano

2018-04-11

Prognosis in oesophageal cancer (OC) is poor. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate is approximately 15%. Personalised medicine is hoped to increase the 5- and 10-year OS rates. Quantitative analysis of PET is gaining substantial interest in prognostic research but requires the accurate definition of the metabolic tumour volume. This study compares prognostic models developed in the same patient cohort using individual PET segmentation algorithms and assesses the impact on patient risk stratification. Consecutive patients (n = 427) with biopsy-proven OC were included in final analysis. All patients were staged with PET/CT between September 2010 and July 2016. Nine automatic PET segmentation methods were studied. All tumour contours were subjectively analysed for accuracy, and segmentation methods with < 90% accuracy were excluded. Standardised image features were calculated, and a series of prognostic models were developed using identical clinical data. The proportion of patients changing risk classification group were calculated. Out of nine PET segmentation methods studied, clustering means (KM2), general clustering means (GCM3), adaptive thresholding (AT) and watershed thresholding (WT) methods were included for analysis. Known clinical prognostic factors (age, treatment and staging) were significant in all of the developed prognostic models. AT and KM2 segmentation methods developed identical prognostic models. Patient risk stratification was dependent on the segmentation method used to develop the prognostic model with up to 73 patients (17.1%) changing risk stratification group. Prognostic models incorporating quantitative image features are dependent on the method used to delineate the primary tumour. This has a subsequent effect on risk stratification, with patients changing groups depending on the image segmentation method used.

Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors Into Cumulative Risk Assessments

PubMed Central

Rider, Cynthia V.; Dourson, Michael L.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Mumtaz, Moiz M.; Price, Paul S.; Simmons, Jane Ellen

2012-01-01

The role of nonchemical stressors in modulating the human health risk associated with chemical exposures is an area of increasing attention. On 9 March 2011, a workshop titled “Approaches for Incorporating Nonchemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment” took place during the 50th Anniversary Annual Society of Toxicology Meeting in Washington D.C. Objectives of the workshop included describing the current state of the science from various perspectives (i.e., regulatory, exposure, modeling, and risk assessment) and presenting expert opinions on currently available methods for incorporating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments. Herein, distinct frameworks for characterizing exposure to, joint effects of, and risk associated with chemical and nonchemical stressors are discussed. PMID:22345310

Software Risk Identification for Interplanetary Probes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dougherty, Robert J.; Papadopoulos, Periklis E.

2005-01-01

The need for a systematic and effective software risk identification methodology is critical for interplanetary probes that are using increasingly complex and critical software. Several probe failures are examined that suggest more attention and resources need to be dedicated to identifying software risks. The direct causes of these failures can often be traced to systemic problems in all phases of the software engineering process. These failures have lead to the development of a practical methodology to identify risks for interplanetary probes. The proposed methodology is based upon the tailoring of the Software Engineering Institute's (SEI) method of taxonomy-based risk identification. The use of this methodology will ensure a more consistent and complete identification of software risks in these probes.

The Effects of Generalized Joint Laxity on Risk of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury in Young Female Athletes

PubMed Central

Myer, Gregory D.; Ford, Kevin R.; Paterno, Mark V.; Nick, Todd G.; Hewett, Timothy E.

2012-01-01

Background Women who participate in high-risk sports suffer anterior cruciate ligament injury at a 4- to 6-fold greater rate than men. Purpose To prospectively determine if female athletes with decreased passive knee joint restraint (greater joint laxity) and greater side-to-side differences in knee laxity would be at increased risk of anterior cruciate ligament injury. Study Design Case control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods From 1558 female soccer and basketball players who were prospectively screened, 19 went on to tear their anterior cruciate ligaments. Four height- and mass-matched control subjects were selected from the uninjured screened athletes for comparison with each of the 19 injured subjects, making a total of 95 subjects (19 injured; 76 uninjured). Generalized joint-laxity tests and anterior-posterior tibiofemoral translation were quantified using the CompuKT knee arthrometer. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to determine predictors of anterior cruciate ligament injury status from recorded laxity measures. Results A multivariable logistic regression model (chi-square = 18.6; P = .002) used the independent variables laxity measures of knee hyperextension (P = .02), wrist and thumb to forearm opposition (P = .80), fifth-finger hyperextension >90° (P = .71), side-to-side differences in anterior-posterior tibiofemoral translation (P = .002), and prior knee injury (P = .22) to predict anterior cruciate ligament–injury status. The validated C statistic, or validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, was 0.72. For every 1.3-mm increase in side-to-side differences in anterior-posterior knee displacement, the odds of anterior cruciate ligament–injured status increased 4-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.68–9.69). A positive measure of knee hyperextension increased the odds of anterior cruciate ligament–injured status 5-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.24–18.44). Conclusion The current results indicate that increased knee-laxity measures may contribute to increased risk of anterior cruciate ligament injury. The methods to quantify knee joint laxity in this report may be used in conjunction with measures of neuromuscular control of the knee joint to identify high-risk female athletes with high accuracy. Once high-risk female athletes are identified, they may be targeted to the appropriate interventions to reduce injury risk. PMID:18326833

Poor Awareness of Risk Factors for Cancer in Irish Adults: Results of a Large Survey and Review of the Literature

PubMed Central

Cushen, Samantha; Schellekens, Harriët; Bhuachalla, Eadaoin Ni; Burns, Lisa; Kenny, Ursula; Power, Derek G.

2015-01-01

Background. Knowledge of cancer risk factors is unknown in Ireland. An understanding of risk factors could help inform cancer prevention programs. Aims and Methods. A 48-question online survey was designed to gather data to assess levels of public knowledge about cancer risk factors. Results. There were 748 participants (648 women, 100 men). Mean age was 37 years (range: 18–74 years). For the public, 81% were concerned about developing cancer; however, 20% believed that cancer is unavoidable if a family history exists, 27% believed that >50% of cancers are inherited, and 54% believed that 10%–20% of cancers are inherited; 20% were unaware that risk increases with age. The top five risk factors listed by respondents were smoking (87%), diet (76%), genetics (47%), alcohol (42%), and obesity (33%). Only 32% of the public were aware that obesity is a risk factor, and 33% did not think the location of fat was important. Moreover, 29% and 48% believed that risk could be increased by wearing a tight bra and by a blow to the breast, respectively. In addition, 85% and 86% believed that stress and that mobile phones, respectively, “strongly” increase risk; 12% believed that luck is important in avoiding cancer; 35% thought that “detox” diets could reduce risk; and 61% believed that organic food reduces risk. The majority were aware that physical activity of 30 minutes per day can reduce risk. Conclusion. A sizable portion of the population is misinformed about cancer risk. Most participants were aware of classic risk factors (e.g., smoking, diet); however, many overestimated risk attributable to genetics, environment, and stress and underestimated age, obesity, and sunlight. One in seven participants believed that lifetime risk of cancer is not modifiable. PMID:25746344

Health risks from exposure to Legionella in reclaimed water aerosols: Toilet flushing, spray irrigation, and cooling towers.

PubMed

Hamilton, Kerry A; Hamilton, Mark T; Johnson, William; Jjemba, Patrick; Bukhari, Zia; LeChevallier, Mark; Haas, Charles N

2018-05-01

The use of reclaimed water brings new challenges for the water industry in terms of maintaining water quality while increasing sustainability. Increased attention has been devoted to opportunistic pathogens, especially Legionella pneumophila, due to its growing importance as a portion of the waterborne disease burden in the United States. Infection occurs when a person inhales a mist containing Legionella bacteria. The top three uses for reclaimed water (cooling towers, spray irrigation, and toilet flushing) that generate aerosols were evaluated for Legionella health risks in reclaimed water using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Risks are compared using data from nineteen United States reclaimed water utilities measured with culture-based methods, quantitative PCR (qPCR), and ethidium-monoazide-qPCR. Median toilet flushing annual infection risks exceeded 10 -4 considering multiple toilet types, while median clinical severity infection risks did not exceed this value. Sprinkler and cooling tower risks varied depending on meteorological conditions and operational characteristics such as drift eliminator performance. However, the greatest differences between risk scenarios were due to 1) the dose response model used (infection or clinical severity infection) 2) population at risk considered (residential or occupational) and 3) differences in laboratory analytical method. Theoretical setback distances necessary to achieve a median annual infection risk level of 10 -4 are proposed for spray irrigation and cooling towers. In both cooling tower and sprinkler cases, Legionella infection risks were non-trivial at potentially large setback distances, and indicate other simultaneous management practices could be needed to manage risks. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential factors for variability in risks were the concentration of Legionella and aerosol partitioning and/or efficiency across all models, highlighting the importance of strategies to manage Legionella occurrence in reclaimed water. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incidence of Schizophrenia Among Second-Generation Immigrants in the Jerusalem Perinatal Cohort

PubMed Central

Corcoran, Cheryl; Perrin, Mary; Harlap, Susan; Deutsch, Lisa; Fennig, Shmuel; Manor, Orly; Nahon, Daniella; Kimhy, David; Malaspina, Dolores; Susser, Ezra

2009-01-01

Objective: Increased incidence of schizophrenia is observed among some immigrant groups in Europe, with the offspring of immigrants, ie “second-generation” immigrants particularly vulnerable. Few contemporary studies have evaluated the risk of schizophrenia among second-generation immigrants in other parts of the world. Methods: We studied the incidence of schizophrenia in relation to parental immigrant status in a population-based cohort of 88 829 offspring born in Jerusalem in 1964–1976. Parental countries of birth were obtained from birth certificates and grouped together as (1) Israel, (2) Other West Asia, (3) North Africa, and (4) Europe and industrialized countries. Cox proportional hazards methods were used in adjusting for sex, parents’ ages, maternal education, social class, and birth order. Results: Linkage with Israel's Psychiatric Registry identified 637 people admitted to psychiatric care facilities with schizophrenia-related diagnoses, before 1998. Incidence of schizophrenia was not increased among second-generation immigrants in this birth cohort, neither overall nor by specific group. Conclusions: The difference in risk of schizophrenia among second-generation immigrants in Europe and in this Israeli birth cohort suggests that the nature of the immigration experience may be relevant to risk, including reasons for migration, the nature of entry, and subsequent position in the host country for immigrants and their offspring. Minority status may be of importance as, in later studies, immigrants to Israel from Ethiopia had increased risk of schizophrenia. PMID:18648022

Epidemiology of Leptospirosis in Costa Rica 2011-2015.

PubMed

Carvajal, Marcelo Pérez; Fagerstrom, Kaila A

2017-01-01

Leptospirosis is a global spirochete causing chronic renal disease that is increasing in Costa Rica. This paper identifies the prevalence and risk factors of leptospirosis in Costa Rica between the years of 2011-2015. Clinical cases of leptospirosis in Costa Rica demonstrated various symptoms: from asymptomatic diseases to severe cases of kidney and liver failure. A variety of diagnostic methods with varying specificities and sensitivities were employed. In Costa Rica, prevention methods such as protective clothing, decreased contact with animals, and prophylaxis of close contacts continue to be the most important factors in reducing transmission of leptospirosis. In Costa Rica, the following populations should be aware of their increased risk: those living in the province of San José, Puntarenas, or Alajuela; being a male; being of productive years; and exposure to specific environmental factors.

Summary of evidence-based guideline update: Evaluation and management of concussion in sports

PubMed Central

Giza, Christopher C.; Kutcher, Jeffrey S.; Ashwal, Stephen; Barth, Jeffrey; Getchius, Thomas S.D.; Gioia, Gerard A.; Gronseth, Gary S.; Guskiewicz, Kevin; Mandel, Steven; Manley, Geoffrey; McKeag, Douglas B.; Thurman, David J.; Zafonte, Ross

2013-01-01

Objective: To update the 1997 American Academy of Neurology (AAN) practice parameter regarding sports concussion, focusing on 4 questions: 1) What factors increase/decrease concussion risk? 2) What diagnostic tools identify those with concussion and those at increased risk for severe/prolonged early impairments, neurologic catastrophe, or chronic neurobehavioral impairment? 3) What clinical factors identify those at increased risk for severe/prolonged early postconcussion impairments, neurologic catastrophe, recurrent concussions, or chronic neurobehavioral impairment? 4) What interventions enhance recovery, reduce recurrent concussion risk, or diminish long-term sequelae? The complete guideline on which this summary is based is available as an online data supplement to this article. Methods: We systematically reviewed the literature from 1955 to June 2012 for pertinent evidence. We assessed evidence for quality and synthesized into conclusions using a modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation process. We used a modified Delphi process to develop recommendations. Results: Specific risk factors can increase or decrease concussion risk. Diagnostic tools to help identify individuals with concussion include graded symptom checklists, the Standardized Assessment of Concussion, neuropsychological assessments, and the Balance Error Scoring System. Ongoing clinical symptoms, concussion history, and younger age identify those at risk for postconcussion impairments. Risk factors for recurrent concussion include history of multiple concussions, particularly within 10 days after initial concussion. Risk factors for chronic neurobehavioral impairment include concussion exposure and APOE ε4 genotype. Data are insufficient to show that any intervention enhances recovery or diminishes long-term sequelae postconcussion. Practice recommendations are presented for preparticipation counseling, management of suspected concussion, and management of diagnosed concussion. PMID:23508730

Risk characterization of hospitalizations for mental illness and/or behavioral disorders with concurrent heat-related illness

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Many studies have found significant associations between high ambient temperatures and increases in heat-related morbidity and mortality. Several studies have demonstrated that increases in heat-related hospitalizations are elevated among individuals with diagnosed mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders (MBD). However, there are a limited number of studies regarding risk factors associated with specific mental illnesses that contribute, at least in part, to heat-related illnesses (HRI) in the United States. Objective To identify and characterize individual and environmental risk factors associated with MBD hospitalizations with a concurrent HRI diagnosis. Methods This study uses hospitalization data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (2001–2010). Descriptive analyses of primary and secondary diagnoses of MBDs with an HRI were examined. Risk ratios (RR) were calculated from multivariable models to identify risk factors for hospitalizations among patients with mental illnesses and/or behavioral disorders and HRI. Results Nondependent alcohol/drug abuse, dementia, and schizophrenia were among the disorders that were associated with increased frequency of HRI hospitalizations among MBD patients. Increased risk of MBD hospitalizations with HRI was observed for Males (RR, 3.06), African Americans (RR, 1.16), Native Americans (RR, 1.70), uninsured (RR, 1.92), and those 40 years and older, compared to MBD hospitalizations alone. Conclusions Previous studies outside the U.S. have found that dementia and schizophrenia are significant risk factors for HRI hospitalizations. Our results suggest that hospitalizations among substance abusers may also be an important risk factor associated with heat morbidity. Improved understanding of these relative risks could help inform future public health strategies. PMID:29036206

Similarities in Acquired Factors Related to Postmenopausal Osteoporosis and Sarcopenia

PubMed Central

Sirola, Joonas; Kröger, Heikki

2011-01-01

Postmenopausal population is at increased risk of musculoskeletal impairments. Sarcopenia and osteoporosis are associated with significant morbidity and social and health-care costs. These two conditions are uniquely linked with similarities in pathophysiology and diagnostic methods. Uniform diagnostic criteria for sarcopenia are still evolving. Postmenopausal sarcopenia and osteoporosis share many environmental risk- and preventive factors. Moreover, geriatric frailty syndrome may result from interaction of osteoporosis and sarcopenia and may lead to increased mortality. The present paper reviews the factors in evolution of postmenopausal sarcopenia and osteoporosis. PMID:21904688

Vaccination for the expatriate and long-term traveler.

PubMed

Shepherd, Suzanne M; Shoff, William H

2014-06-01

Duration of travel is an important factor in addressing travel health safety due to cumulative risk of exposure to illness and injury. The diverse group of expatriate and long-term business and leisure travelers present a different spectrum of issues for the travel medicine practitioner to address during consultation than does the short-term traveler, due to changes in travel patterns and activities, lifestyle alterations, and increased interaction with local populations. Immunization provides one safe and reliable method of preventing infectious illness in this group. We review travel patterns and available data on illnesses that they may be exposed to, including the increased risk of certain vaccine-preventable illnesses. We review the pre-travel management of these travelers, particularly the increased risk of certain vaccine-preventable illnesses as it applies to routine vaccines, recommended travel vaccines and required travel vaccines.

Nine steps to risk-informed wellhead protection and management: Methods and application to the Burgberg Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowak, W.; Enzenhoefer, R.; Bunk, T.

2013-12-01

Wellhead protection zones are commonly delineated via advective travel time analysis without considering any aspects of model uncertainty. In the past decade, research efforts produced quantifiable risk-based safety margins for protection zones. They are based on well vulnerability criteria (e.g., travel times, exposure times, peak concentrations) cast into a probabilistic setting, i.e., they consider model and parameter uncertainty. Practitioners still refrain from applying these new techniques for mainly three reasons. (1) They fear the possibly cost-intensive additional areal demand of probabilistic safety margins, (2) probabilistic approaches are allegedly complex, not readily available, and consume huge computing resources, and (3) uncertainty bounds are fuzzy, whereas final decisions are binary. The primary goal of this study is to show that these reservations are unjustified. We present a straightforward and computationally affordable framework based on a novel combination of well-known tools (e.g., MODFLOW, PEST, Monte Carlo). This framework provides risk-informed decision support for robust and transparent wellhead delineation under uncertainty. Thus, probabilistic risk-informed wellhead protection is possible with methods readily available for practitioners. As vivid proof of concept, we illustrate our key points on a pumped karstic well catchment, located in Germany. In the case study, we show that reliability levels can be increased by re-allocating the existing delineated area at no increase in delineated area. This is achieved by simply swapping delineated low-risk areas against previously non-delineated high-risk areas. Also, we show that further improvements may often be available at only low additional delineation area. Depending on the context, increases or reductions of delineated area directly translate to costs and benefits, if the land is priced, or if land owners need to be compensated for land use restrictions.

Mammographic features and subsequent risk of breast cancer: a comparison of qualitative and quantitative evaluations in the Guernsey prospective studies.

PubMed

Torres-Mejía, Gabriela; De Stavola, Bianca; Allen, Diane S; Pérez-Gavilán, Juan J; Ferreira, Jorge M; Fentiman, Ian S; Dos Santos Silva, Isabel

2005-05-01

Mammographic features are known to be associated with breast cancer but the magnitude of the effect differs markedly from study to study. Methods to assess mammographic features range from subjective qualitative classifications to computer-automated quantitative measures. We used data from the UK Guernsey prospective studies to examine the relative value of these methods in predicting breast cancer risk. In all, 3,211 women ages > or =35 years who had a mammogram taken in 1986 to 1989 were followed-up to the end of October 2003, with 111 developing breast cancer during this period. Mammograms were classified using the subjective qualitative Wolfe classification and several quantitative mammographic features measured using computer-based techniques. Breast cancer risk was positively associated with high-grade Wolfe classification, percent breast density and area of dense tissue, and negatively associated with area of lucent tissue, fractal dimension, and lacunarity. Inclusion of the quantitative measures in the same model identified area of dense tissue and lacunarity as the best predictors of breast cancer, with risk increasing by 59% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 29-94%] per SD increase in total area of dense tissue but declining by 39% (95% CI, 53-22%) per SD increase in lacunarity, after adjusting for each other and for other confounders. Comparison of models that included both the qualitative Wolfe classification and these two quantitative measures to models that included either the qualitative or the two quantitative variables showed that they all made significant contributions to prediction of breast cancer risk. These findings indicate that breast cancer risk is affected not only by the amount of mammographic density but also by the degree of heterogeneity of the parenchymal pattern and, presumably, by other features captured by the Wolfe classification.

Clinical, Demographic, and Familial Correlates of Bipolar Spectrum Disorders among Offspring of Parents with Bipolar Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldstein, Benjamin I.; Shamseddeen, Wael; Axelson, David A.; Kalas, Cathy; Monk, Kelly; Brent, David A.; Kupfer, David J.; Birmaher, Boris

2010-01-01

Objective: Despite increased risk, most offspring of parents with bipolar disorder (BP) do not manifest BP. The identification of risk factors for BP among offspring could improve preventive and treatment strategies. We examined this topic in the Pittsburgh Bipolar Offspring Study (BIOS). Method: Subjects included 388 offspring, ages 7-17 years,…

Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Physical Activity Behavior among Elementary School Personnel: Baseline Results from the ACTION! Worksite Wellness Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webber, Larry S.; Rice, Janet C.; Johnson, Carolyn C.; Rose, Donald; Srinivasan, Sathanur R.; Berenson, Gerald S.

2012-01-01

Background: Although the prevalence of obesity is increasing during adulthood, there have been few assessments of obesity, cardiovascular risk factors, and levels of physical activity among adult elementary school staff. Methods: Data were collected from 745 African-American and White female school personnel in a suburban school district in…

Childhood Gender Nonconformity, Bullying Victimization, and Depressive Symptoms across Adolescence and Early Adulthood: An 11-Year Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Andrea L.; Rosario, Margaret; Slopen, Natalie; Calzo, Jerel P.; Austin, S. Bryn

2013-01-01

Objective: Childhood gender nonconformity has been associated with increased risk of caregiver abuse and bullying victimization outside the home, but it is unknown whether as a consequence children who are nonconforming are at higher risk of depressive symptoms. Method: Using data from a large national cohort (N = 10,655), we examined differences…

[Lean production and psychosocial risks: the case of a multinational merger in a metallurgical company in Brazil].

PubMed

Stenger, Eunice; Monteiro, Maria Inês; Sabino, Marcos Oliveira; Miquilin, Isabella de Oliveira Campos; Corrêa Filho, Heleno Rodrigues

2014-08-01

This study focused on the method known as "lean production" as a work-related psychosocial risk factor in a Brazilian multinational auto parts company after its merger with other multinational companies. The authors conducted a qualitative analysis of two time points: the first using on-site observation and key interviews with managers and workers during implementation of lean production in 1996; the second, 16 years later, comparing data from a document search in labor inspection records from the Ministry of Labor and Employment and legal proceedings initiated by the Office of the Public Prosecutor for Labor Affairs. The merger led to layoffs, replacements, and an increase in the workday. A class action suit was filed on grounds of aggravated working conditions. The new production model led to psychosocial risks that increased the need for workers' health precautions when changes in the production process introduced new and increased risks of physical and mental illnesses.

Discrimination, drugs, and alcohol among Latina/os in Brooklyn, New York: Differences by gender

PubMed Central

Gee, Gilbert C.; Iguchi, Martin Y.; Ford, Chandra L.; Friedman, Samuel R.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND Based on a stress-coping framework, the present study investigates the relationship between discrimination and substance use, and the moderating effects of gender. METHODS This cross-sectional study analyzes data from Latina/o young adults aged 18 to 25 (n=401) from Brooklyn, New York. Multinomial logistic regression was used to test the association between discrimination and substance use. RESULTS Discrimination was significantly associated with increased odds of substance use adjusting for covariates (e.g. age, education). Gender was a moderator. Discrimination was associated with increased risk of alcohol/marijuana and hard drug use among young Latina women. However, discrimination was associated with decreased risk of alcohol/marijuana use and increased risk of hard drug use among young Latino men. CONCLUSION These findings suggest that discrimination is generally associated with risk for substance use, but further that the outcomes vary by gender. Future research should explore gender-specific dimensions of discrimination and their associations with other outcomes. PMID:23481289

Spatial and temporal analysis of Aids cases in Brazil, 1996-2011: increased risk areas over time.

PubMed

Sousa, Artur Iuri Alves de; Pinto, Vitor Laerte

2016-01-01

to identify areas with greater risk of AIDS transmission in Brazil. this is an ecological study involving georeference of AIDS cases incidence, prevalence and density in Brazilian municipalities using the Kernel method for the periods 1996-1999, 2000-2003, 2004-2007 and 2008-2011. 633,512 AIDS cases were reported between 1996-2011; between 2008-2011, there was increased risk of AIDS transmission in Recife-João Pessoa region, the emergence of areas with average density in the regions of Belém, São Luís, Maceió, Aracaju and Salvador, and a decline in the intensity of risk in São Paulo, Campinas and Ribeirão Preto; prevalence rates were most concentrated in the Southeast, South and Midwest regions of the country. overall, AIDS incidence in Brazil showed successive increases in the periods analyzed; case prevalence indicates spatial clusters, with high concentrations in the Southeast, South and Midwest regions.

Parenting style in childhood and mortality risk at old age: a longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

Demakakos, Panayotes; Pillas, Demetris; Marmot, Michael; Steptoe, Andrew

2018-01-01

Background Parenting style is associated with offspring health, but whether it is associated with offspring mortality at older ages remains unknown. Aims We examined whether childhood experiences of suboptimal parenting style are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. Method Longitudinal cohort study of 1,964 community-dwelling adults aged 65 to 79 years. Results The association between parenting style and mortality was inverse and graded. Participants in the poorest parenting style score quartile had increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) 1.72; 95% CI, 1.20-2.48) compared with those in the optimal parenting style score quartile after adjustment for age and sex. Full adjustment for covariates partially explained this association (HR 1.49; 95% CI, 1.02-2.18). Parenting style was inversely associated with cancer and other mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality. Maternal and paternal parenting styles were individually associated with mortality. Conclusions Experiences of suboptimal parenting in childhood are associated with increased risk of death at older ages. PMID:26941265

Trichomonas vaginalis infection and risk of advanced prostate cancer.

PubMed

Shui, Irene M; Kolb, Suzanne; Hanson, Christi; Sutcliffe, Siobhan; Rider, Jennifer R; Stanford, Janet L

2016-05-01

The epidemiologic evidence for an association of Trichomonas vaginalis (Tv) with overall prostate cancer is mixed, but some studies suggest Tv may increase risk of more aggressive disease. The aim of this study was to assess whether Tv serostatus is associated with advanced or fatal prostate cancer. A total of 146 men with advanced (metastatic or fatal) prostate cancer and 181 age-matched controls were selected from two prior population-based, case-control studies. Tv serostatus was determined with the same laboratory methods used in previous epidemiologic studies. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using multivariable logistic regression to compare Tv serostatus in prostate cancer cases and controls adjusted for potential confounders. The seroprevalence of Tv in controls was 23%. Tv serostatus was not associated with an increased risk of metastatic or fatal prostate cancer (ORs < 1). Our study does not support an increased risk of advanced or fatal prostate cancer in men seropositive for Tv. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Testosterone and sexual risk among transmen: A mixed methods exploratory study

PubMed Central

Dadasovich, Rand; Auerswald, Coco; Wilson, Erin C.; Minnis, Alexandra M.; Raymond, H. Fisher; McFarland, Willi

2017-01-01

Little research has explored the link between the behavioural effects of testosterone use among transmen and HIV risk. We conducted a mixed methods study to explore testosterone use among transmen and the behavioural effects on HIV risk. A sample of 122 transmen from San Francisco participated in a cross-sectional quantitative survey and 14 transmen participated in 2 focus group discussions. Most participants (81.9%) were currently taking hormones. Participants attributed testosterone use to new sexual behaviours among 69% of transmen, changes in sexual attractions (49%), and increased frequency of sexual activity (72%). Among current testosterone users, 3.3% had cisgender men as partners before starting testosterone, whereas after starting testosterone, 25.4 % did. Similarly, 4.1% had a transgender woman as a sexual partner before starting testosterone and 13.9% after starting testosterone. Findings suggest that testosterone’s side effects were associated with transmen’s desires for sex with cisgender men who have sex with men. The reported increase in attraction to and sex with partners from populations with a high HIV prevalence may have important implications for HIV risk among transmen, especially as the availability of transgender health services may draw transmen to an area where HIV prevalence is high. PMID:27552941

Trends in Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Bronchiolitis Hospitalization Rates in High-Risk Infants in a United States Nationally Representative Database, 1997–2012

PubMed Central

Doucette, Abigail; Jiang, Xiaohui; Fryzek, Jon; Coalson, Jenna; McLaurin, Kimmie; Ambrose, Christopher S.

2016-01-01

Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant pediatric morbidity and is the most common cause of bronchiolitis. Bronchiolitis hospitalizations declined among US infants from 2000‒2009; however, rates in infants at high risk for RSV have not been described. This study examined RSV and unspecified bronchiolitis (UB) hospitalization rates from 1997‒2012 among US high-risk infants. Methods The Kids’ Inpatient Database (KID) infant annual RSV (ICD-9 079.6, 466.11, 480.1) and UB (ICD-9 466.19, 466.1) hospitalization rates were estimated using weighted counts. Denominators were based on birth hospitalizations with conditions associated with high-risk for RSV: chronic perinatal respiratory disease (chronic lung disease [CLD]); congenital airway anomalies (CAA); congenital heart disease (CHD); Down syndrome (DS); and other genetic, metabolic, musculoskeletal, and immunodeficiency conditions. Preterm infants could not be identified. Hospitalizations were characterized by mechanical ventilation, inpatient mortality, length of stay, and total cost (2015$). Poisson and linear regression were used to test statistical significance of trends. Results RSV and UB hospitalization rates were substantially elevated for infants with higher-risk CHD, CLD, CAA and DS without CHD compared with all infants. RSV rates declined by 47.0% in CLD and 49.7% in higher-risk CHD infants; no other declines in high-risk groups were observed. UB rates increased in all high-risk groups except for a 22.5% decrease among higher-risk CHD. Among high-risk infants, mechanical ventilation increased through 2012 to 20.4% and 13.5% of RSV and UB hospitalizations; geometric mean cost increased to $31,742 and $25,962, respectively, and RSV mortality declined to 0.9%. Conclusions Among high-risk infants between 1997 and 2012, RSV hospitalization rates declined among CLD and higher-risk CHD infants, coincident with widespread RSV immunoprophylaxis use in these populations. UB hospitalization rates increased in all high-risk groups except higher-risk CHD, suggesting improvement in the health status of higher-risk CHD infants, potentially due to enhanced surgical interventions. Mechanical ventilation use and RSV and UB hospitalization costs increased while RSV mortality declined. PMID:27050095

Managing the potential risks of using bacteria-laden water in mineral processing to protect freshwater.

PubMed

Liu, Wenying; Moran, Chris J; Vink, Sue

2013-06-18

The minerals industry is being driven to access multiple water sources and increase water reuse to minimize freshwater withdrawal. Bacteria-laden water, such as treated effluent, has been increasingly used as an alternative to freshwater for mineral processing, in particular flotation, where conditions are favorable for bacterial growth. However, the risk posed by bacteria to flotation efficiency is poorly understood. This could be a barrier to the ongoing use of this water source. This study tested the potential of a previously published risk-based approach as a management tool to both assist mine sites in quantifying the risk from bacteria, and finding system-wide cost-effective solutions for risk mitigation. The result shows that the solution of adjusting the flotation chemical regime could only partly control the risk. The second solution of using tailings as an absorbent was shown to be effective in the laboratory in reducing bacterial concentration and thus removing the threat to flotation recovery. The best solution is likely to combine internal and external approaches, that is, inside and outside processing plants. Findings in this study contribute possible methods applicable to managing the risk from water-borne bacteria to plant operations that choose to use bacteria-containing water, when attempting to minimize freshwater use, and avoiding the undesirable consequences of increasing its use.

Association between RTEL1, PHLDB1, and TREH Polymorphisms and Glioblastoma Risk: A Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Yang, Bo; Heng, Liang; Du, Shuli; Yang, Hua; Jin, Tianbo; Lang, Hongjuan; Li, Shanqu

2015-01-01

Background Glioblastoma (GBM) is a highly invasive, aggressive, and incurable brain tumor. Genetic factors play important roles in GBM risk. The aim of this study was to elucidate the influence of gene polymorphism on GBM susceptibility. Material/Methods In this case-control study, we included 72 GBM patients and 320 healthy controls to analyze the association between 29 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and GBM cancer risk in the Chinese Han population. The single-nucleotide polymorphisms were determined by Sequenom MassARRAY RS1000 and statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software and SNPStats software. Results Using the χ2 test, we found that rs2297440 and rs6010620 in RTEL1 increased risk of GBM. In the recessive model, we also found that the genotypes “CC” of rs2297440 and “GG” of rs6010620 in RTEL1 significantly increased GBM risk. The variant TT genotype of TREH rs17748 and the variant TT genotype of PHLDB1 rs498872 decreased GBM risk in the recessive model. We also found that the TREH rs17748 variant C allele showed an increased risk in males in the dominant model. Conclusions Our results suggest a significant association between the RETL1, TREH, and PHLDB1 genes and GBM development in the Han Chinese population. PMID:26156397

Modeling Individual Patient Preferences for Colorectal Cancer Screening Based on Their Tolerance for Complications Risk.

PubMed

Taksler, Glen B; Perzynski, Adam T; Kattan, Michael W

2017-04-01

Recommendations for colorectal cancer screening encourage patients to choose among various screening methods based on individual preferences for benefits, risks, screening frequency, and discomfort. We devised a model to illustrate how individuals with varying tolerance for screening complications risk might decide on their preferred screening strategy. We developed a discrete-time Markov mathematical model that allowed hypothetical individuals to maximize expected lifetime utility by selecting screening method, start age, stop age, and frequency. Individuals could choose from stool-based testing every 1 to 3 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy every 1 to 20 years with annual stool-based testing, colonoscopy every 1 to 20 years, or no screening. We compared the life expectancy gained from the chosen strategy with the life expectancy available from a benchmark strategy of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual at average risk of colorectal cancer who was risk neutral with respect to screening complications (and therefore was willing to undergo screening if it would actuarially increase life expectancy), the model predicted that he or she would choose colonoscopy every 10 years, from age 53 to 73 years, consistent with national guidelines. For a similar individual who was moderately averse to screening complications risk (and therefore required a greater increase in life expectancy to accept potential risks of colonoscopy), the model predicted that he or she would prefer flexible sigmoidoscopy every 12 years with annual stool-based testing, with 93% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual with higher risk aversion, the model predicted that he or she would prefer 2 lifetime flexible sigmoidoscopies, 20 years apart, with 70% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. Mathematical models may formalize how individuals with different risk attitudes choose between various guideline-recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies.

Automatic Identification of Web-Based Risk Markers for Health Events

PubMed Central

Borsa, Diana; Hayward, Andrew C; McKendry, Rachel A; Cox, Ingemar J

2015-01-01

Background The escalating cost of global health care is driving the development of new technologies to identify early indicators of an individual’s risk of disease. Traditionally, epidemiologists have identified such risk factors using medical databases and lengthy clinical studies but these are often limited in size and cost and can fail to take full account of diseases where there are social stigmas or to identify transient acute risk factors. Objective Here we report that Web search engine queries coupled with information on Wikipedia access patterns can be used to infer health events associated with an individual user and automatically generate Web-based risk markers for some of the common medical conditions worldwide, from cardiovascular disease to sexually transmitted infections and mental health conditions, as well as pregnancy. Methods Using anonymized datasets, we present methods to first distinguish individuals likely to have experienced specific health events, and classify them into distinct categories. We then use the self-controlled case series method to find the incidence of health events in risk periods directly following a user’s search for a query category, and compare to the incidence during other periods for the same individuals. Results Searches for pet stores were risk markers for allergy. We also identified some possible new risk markers; for example: searching for fast food and theme restaurants was associated with a transient increase in risk of myocardial infarction, suggesting this exposure goes beyond a long-term risk factor but may also act as an acute trigger of myocardial infarction. Dating and adult content websites were risk markers for sexually transmitted infections, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Conclusions Web-based methods provide a powerful, low-cost approach to automatically identify risk factors, and support more timely and personalized public health efforts to bring human and economic benefits. PMID:25626480

Young adults' contraceptive knowledge, norms and attitudes: associations with risk of unintended pregnancy.

PubMed

Frost, Jennifer J; Lindberg, Laura Duberstein; Finer, Lawrence B

2012-06-01

Women aged 18-29 have higher rates of unintended pregnancy than any other age-group. Information is needed to understand what characteristics are associated with risky contraceptive use practices among this population and to develop new strategies for reducing these women's risk of unintended pregnancy. Data related to unintended pregnancy risk were collected from a nationally representative sample of 1,800 unmarried women and men aged 18-29 surveyed by telephone in 2009. Among those at risk of unintended pregnancy, multiple logistic regression was used to assess associations between contraceptive knowledge, norms and attitudes and selected risky contraceptive behaviors. More than half of young men and a quarter of young women received low scores on contraceptive knowledge, and six in 10 underestimated the effectiveness of oral contraceptives. Among women, for each correct response on a contraceptive knowledge scale, the odds of expecting to have unprotected sex in the next three months decreased by 9%, of currently using a hormonal or long-acting reversible method increased by 17%, and of using no method decreased by 17%. Fear of side effects, norms and attitudes that favor nonmarital pregnancy or undervalue the importance of contraception, pregnancy ambivalence and mistrust of government's role in promoting contraception were also associated with one or more risky contraceptive use behaviors. Programs to increase young adults' knowledge about contraceptive methods and use are urgently needed. Given the demonstrated link between method knowledge and contraceptive behaviors, such programs may be useful in addressing risky behavior in this population. Copyright © 2012 by the Guttmacher Institute.

On the use of sibling recurrence risks to select environmental factors liable to interact with genetic risk factors.

PubMed

Kazma, Rémi; Bonaïti-Pellié, Catherine; Norris, Jill M; Génin, Emmanuelle

2010-01-01

Gene-environment interactions are likely to be involved in the susceptibility to multifactorial diseases but are difficult to detect. Available methods usually concentrate on some particular genetic and environmental factors. In this paper, we propose a new method to determine whether a given exposure is susceptible to interact with unknown genetic factors. Rather than focusing on a specific genetic factor, the degree of familial aggregation is used as a surrogate for genetic factors. A test comparing the recurrence risks in sibs according to the exposure of indexes is proposed and its power is studied for varying values of model parameters. The Exposed versus Unexposed Recurrence Analysis (EURECA) is valuable for common diseases with moderate familial aggregation, only when the role of exposure has been clearly outlined. Interestingly, accounting for a sibling correlation for the exposure increases the power of EURECA. An application on a sample ascertained through one index affected with type 2 diabetes is presented where gene-environment interactions involving obesity and physical inactivity are investigated. Association of obesity with type 2 diabetes is clearly evidenced and a potential interaction involving this factor is suggested in Hispanics (P=0.045), whereas a clear gene-environment interaction is evidenced involving physical inactivity only in non-Hispanic whites (P=0.028). The proposed method might be of particular interest before genetic studies to help determine the environmental risk factors that will need to be accounted for to increase the power to detect genetic risk factors and to select the most appropriate samples to genotype.

Depression and Anxiety as Risk Factors for Morbidity and Mortality after Organ Transplantation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis1

PubMed Central

Dew, Mary Amanda; Rosenberger, Emily M.; Myaskovsky, Larissa; DiMartini, Andrea F.; DeVito Dabbs, Annette J.; Posluszny, Donna M.; Steel, Jennifer; Switzer, Galen E.; Shellmer, Diana A.; Greenhouse, Joel B.

2015-01-01

Background Depression and anxiety are common mental health problems in transplant populations. There is mixed evidence concerning whether they increase morbidity and mortality risks post-transplant. If such associations exist, additional risk reduction strategies may be needed. Methods Four bibliographic databases were searched from 1981 through September, 2014 for studies prospectively examining whether depression or anxiety (determined with diagnostic evaluations or standardized symptom scales) affected risk for post-transplant mortality, graft loss, acute graft rejection, chronic rejection, cancer, infection, and rehospitalization. Results Twenty-seven studies (10 heart, total n=1,738; 6 liver, n=1,063; 5 kidney, n=49,515; 4 lung, n=584; 1 pancreas, n=80; 1 mixed recipient sample, n=205) were identified. In each, depression and/or anxiety were typically measured pre- or early post-transplant. Follow-up for outcomes was a median of 5.8 years (range:0.50–18.0). Depression increased the relative risk (RR) of mortality by 65% (RR=1.65, 95% CI:1.34,2.05; 20 studies). Meta-regression indicated that risk was stronger in studies that did (v. did not) control for potential confounders(p=.032). Risk was unaffected by type of transplant or other study characteristics. Depression increased death-censored graft loss risk (RR=1.65, CI:1.21,2.26, 3 studies). Depression was not associated with other morbidities (each morbidity assessed in 1–4 studies). Anxiety did not significantly increase mortality risk (RR=1.39, CI:0.85,2.27, 6 studies) or morbidity risks (assessed in single studies). Conclusions Depression increases risk for post-transplant mortality. Few studies considered morbidities; the depression-graft loss association suggests that linkages with morbidities deserve greater attention. Depression screening and treatment may be warranted, although whether these activities would reduce post-transplant mortality requires study. PMID:26492128

Long-Term Risk of Subsequent Malignant Neoplasms After Treatment of Childhood Cancer in the DCOG LATER Study Cohort: Role of Chemotherapy.

PubMed

Teepen, Jop C; van Leeuwen, Flora E; Tissing, Wim J; van Dulmen-den Broeder, Eline; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; van der Pal, Helena J; Loonen, Jacqueline J; Bresters, Dorine; Versluys, Birgitta; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M; Jaspers, Monique W M; Hauptmann, Michael; van der Heiden-van der Loo, Margriet; Visser, Otto; Kremer, Leontien C M; Ronckers, Cécile M

2017-07-10

Purpose Childhood cancer survivors (CCSs) are at increased risk for subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs). We evaluated the long-term risk of SMNs in a well-characterized cohort of 5-year CCSs, with a particular focus on individual chemotherapeutic agents and solid cancer risk. Methods The Dutch Childhood Cancer Oncology Group-Long-Term Effects After Childhood Cancer cohort includes 6,165 5-year CCSs diagnosed between 1963 and 2001 in the Netherlands. SMNs were identified by linkages with the Netherlands Cancer Registry, the Dutch Pathology Registry, and medical chart review. We calculated standardized incidence ratios, excess absolute risks, and cumulative incidences. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to evaluate treatment-associated risks for breast cancer, sarcoma, and all solid cancers. Results After a median follow-up of 20.7 years (range, 5.0 to 49.8 years) since first diagnosis, 291 SMNs were ascertained in 261 CCSs (standardized incidence ratio, 5.2; 95% CI, 4.6 to 5.8; excess absolute risk, 20.3/10,000 person-years). Cumulative SMN incidence at 25 years after first diagnosis was 3.9% (95% CI, 3.4% to 4.6%) and did not change noticeably among CCSs treated in the 1990s compared with those treated earlier. We found dose-dependent doxorubicin-related increased risks of all solid cancers ( P trend < .001) and breast cancer ( P trend < .001). The doxorubicin-breast cancer dose response was stronger in survivors of Li-Fraumeni syndrome-associated childhood cancers (leukemia, CNS, and non-Ewing sarcoma) versus survivors of other cancers ( P difference = .008). In addition, cyclophosphamide was found to increase sarcoma risk in a dose-dependent manner ( P trend = .01). Conclusion The results strongly suggest that doxorubicin exposure in CCSs increases the risk of subsequent solid cancers and breast cancer, whereas cyclophosphamide exposure increases the risk of subsequent sarcomas. These results may inform future childhood cancer treatment protocols and SMN surveillance guidelines for CCSs.

Alcohol Consumption and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer for Mismatch Repair Gene Mutation Carriers

PubMed Central

Dashti, S. Ghazaleh; Buchanan, Daniel D.; Jayasekara, Harindra; Ouakrim, Driss Ait; Clendenning, Mark; Rosty, Christophe; Winship, Ingrid M.; Macrae, Finlay A.; Giles, Graham G.; Parry, Susan; Casey, Graham; Haile, Robert W.; Gallinger, Steven; Le Marchand, Loïc; Thibodeau, Stephen N.; Lindor, Noralane M.; Newcomb, Polly A.; Potter, John D.; Baron, John A.; Hopper, John L.; Jenkins, Mark A.; Win, Aung Ko

2016-01-01

Background People with germline mutation in one of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes have increased colorectal cancer risk. For these high-risk people, study findings of the relationship between alcohol consumption and colorectal cancer risk have been inconclusive. Methods 1,925 MMR gene mutations carriers recruited into the Colon Cancer Family Registry who had completed a questionnaire on lifestyle factors were included. Weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between alcohol consumption and colorectal cancer. Results Colorectal cancer was diagnosed in 769 carriers (40%) at a mean (standard deviation) age of 42.6 (10.3) years. Compared with abstention, ethanol consumption from any alcoholic beverage up to 14 grams/day and >28 grams/day were associated with increased colorectal cancer risk (HR, 1.50; 95%CI, 1.09–2.07 and 1.69; 95%CI, 1.07–2.65 respectively; P-trend=0.05), and colon cancer risk (HR, 1.78; 95%CI, 1.27–2.49 and 1.94; 95%CI, 1.19–3.18 respectively; P-trend=0.02). However, there was no clear evidence for an association with rectal cancer risk. Also, there was no evidence for associations between consumption of individual alcoholic beverage types (beer, wine, spirits) and colorectal, colon, or rectal cancer risk. Conclusion Our data suggests that alcohol consumption, particularly more than 28 grams/day of ethanol (~2 standard drinks of alcohol in the US), is associated with increased colorectal cancer risk for MMR gene mutation carriers. Impact Although these data suggested that alcohol consumption in MMR carriers was associated with increased colorectal cancer risk, there was no evidence of a dose-response, and not all types of alcohol consumption were associated with increased risk. PMID:27811119

Alcohol Consumption and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer for Mismatch Repair Gene Mutation Carriers.

PubMed

Dashti, S Ghazaleh; Buchanan, Daniel D; Jayasekara, Harindra; Ait Ouakrim, Driss; Clendenning, Mark; Rosty, Christophe; Winship, Ingrid M; Macrae, Finlay A; Giles, Graham G; Parry, Susan; Casey, Graham; Haile, Robert W; Gallinger, Steven; Le Marchand, Loïc; Thibodeau, Stephen N; Lindor, Noralane M; Newcomb, Polly A; Potter, John D; Baron, John A; Hopper, John L; Jenkins, Mark A; Win, Aung Ko

2017-03-01

Background: People with germline mutation in one of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes have increased colorectal cancer risk. For these high-risk people, study findings of the relationship between alcohol consumption and colorectal cancer risk have been inconclusive. Methods: 1,925 MMR gene mutations carriers recruited into the Colon Cancer Family Registry who had completed a questionnaire on lifestyle factors were included. Weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between alcohol consumption and colorectal cancer. Results: Colorectal cancer was diagnosed in 769 carriers (40%) at a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (10.3) years. Compared with abstention, ethanol consumption from any alcoholic beverage up to 14 g/day and >28 g/day was associated with increased colorectal cancer risk (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.09-2.07 and 1.69; 95% CI, 1.07-2.65, respectively; P trend = 0.05), and colon cancer risk (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.27-2.49 and 1.94; 95% CI, 1.19-3.18, respectively; P trend = 0.02). However, there was no clear evidence for an association with rectal cancer risk. Also, there was no evidence for associations between consumption of individual alcoholic beverage types (beer, wine, spirits) and colorectal, colon, or rectal cancer risk. Conclusions: Our data suggest that alcohol consumption, particularly more than 28 g/day of ethanol (∼2 standard drinks of alcohol in the United States), is associated with increased colorectal cancer risk for MMR gene mutation carriers. Impact: Although these data suggested that alcohol consumption in MMR carriers was associated with increased colorectal cancer risk, there was no evidence of a dose-response, and not all types of alcohol consumption were associated with increased risk. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(3); 366-75. ©2016 AACR . ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Reducing Risk Behaviors Linked to Noncommunicable Diseases in Mongolia: A Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Wang, Wei; Riedel, Marion; Witte, Susan S.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We tested the efficacy of a 6-session, evidence-based health promotion intervention aimed at reducing noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk behaviors. Methods. Two hundred male and female factory workers in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia were randomly assigned to groups receiving either the health promotion intervention or a time-matched financial literacy control intervention. Results. The health promotion intervention increased daily fruit and vegetable intake and physical activity, increased readiness for NCD risk behavior reduction and health promotion knowledge, and reduced the number of daily alcoholic drinks and diabetes symptoms 3 months after the intervention. Conclusions. The findings support the efficacy of the intervention to reduce risk behaviors associated with NCDs. Dissemination of the intervention may improve productivity, reduce costs of health services, and better the quality of life for Mongolians. PMID:23865647

Measurement of Bone: Diagnosis of SCI-Induced Osteoporosis and Fracture Risk Prediction.

PubMed

Troy, Karen L; Morse, Leslie R

2015-01-01

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is associated with a rapid loss of bone mass, resulting in severe osteoporosis and a 5- to 23-fold increase in fracture risk. Despite the seriousness of fractures in SCI, there are multiple barriers to osteoporosis diagnosis and wide variations in treatment practices for SCI-induced osteoporosis. We review the biological and structural changes that are known to occur in bone after SCI in the context of promoting future research to prevent or reduce risk of fracture in this population. We also review the most commonly used methods for assessing bone after SCI and discuss the strengths, limitations, and clinical applications of each method. Although dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry assessments of bone mineral density may be used clinically to detect changes in bone after SCI, 3-dimensional methods such as quantitative CT analysis are recommended for research applications and are explained in detail.

Second cancer incidence risk estimates using BEIR VII models for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy for early breast cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donovan, E. M.; James, H.; Bonora, M.

2012-10-15

Purpose: To compare organ specific cancer incidence risks for standard and complex external beam radiotherapy (including cone beam CT verification) following breast conservation surgery for early breast cancer.Method: Doses from breast radiotherapy and kilovoltage cone beam CT (CBCT) exposures were obtained from thermoluminescent dosimeter measurements in an anthropomorphic phantom in which the positions of radiosensitive organs were delineated. Five treatment deliveries were investigated: (i) conventional tangential field whole breast radiotherapy (WBRT), (ii) noncoplanar conformal delivery applicable to accelerated partial beast irradiation (APBI), (iii) two-volume simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) treatment, (iv) forward planned three-volume SIB, and (v) inverse-planned three volume SIB.more » Conformal and intensity modulated radiotherapy methods were used to plan the complex treatments. Techniques spanned the range from simple methods appropriate for patient cohorts with a low cancer recurrence risk to complex plans relevant to cohorts with high recurrence risk. Delineated organs at risk included brain, salivary glands, thyroid, contralateral breast, left and right lung, esophagus, stomach, liver, colon, and bladder. Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII cancer incidence models were applied to the measured mean organ doses to determine lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for ages at exposure from 35 to 80 yr according to radiotherapy techniques, and included dose from the CBCT imaging. Results: All LAR decreased with age at exposure and were lowest for brain, thyroid, liver, and bladder (<0.1%). There was little dependence of LAR on radiotherapy technique for these organs and for colon and stomach. LAR values for the lungs for the three SIB techniques were two to three times those from WBRT and APBI. Uncertainties in the LAR models outweigh any differences in lung LAR between the SIB methods. Constraints in the planning of the SIB methods ensured that contralateral breast doses and LAR were comparable to WBRT, despite their added complexity. The smaller irradiated volume of the ABPI plan contributed to a halving of LAR for contralateral breast compared with the other plan types. Daily image guided radiotherapy (IGRT) for a left breast protocol using kilovoltage CBCT contributed <10% to LAR for the majority of organs, and did not exceed 22% of total organ dose. Conclusions: Phantom measurements and calculations of LAR from the BEIR VII models predict that complex breast radiotherapy techniques do not increase the theoretical risk of second cancer incidence for organs distant from the treated breast, or the contralateral breast where appropriate plan constraints are applied. Complex SIB treatments are predicted to increase the risk of second cancer incidence in the lungs compared to standard whole breast radiotherapy; this is outweighed by the threefold reduction in 5 yr local recurrence risk for patients of high risk of recurrence, and young age, from the use of radiotherapy. APBI may have a favorable impact on risk of second cancer in the contralateral breast and lung for older patients at low risk of recurrence. Intensive use of IGRTincreased the estimated values of LAR but these are dominated by the effect of the dose from the radiotherapy, and any increase in LAR from IGRT is much lower than the models' uncertainties.« less

Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.

PubMed

Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G; Dear, Keith

2015-05-18

Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.

Risk selection into consumer-directed health plans: an analysis of family choices within large employers.

PubMed

McDevitt, Roland D; Haviland, Amelia M; Lore, Ryan; Laudenberger, Laura; Eisenberg, Matthew; Sood, Neeraj

2014-04-01

To identify the degree of selection into consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) versus traditional plans over time, and factors that influence choice and temper risk selection. Sixteen large employers offering both CDHP and traditional plans during the 2004–2007 period, more than 200,000 families. We model CDHP choice with logistic regression; predictors include risk scores, in addition to family, choice setting, and plan characteristics. Additional models stratify by account type or single enrollee versus family. Risk scores, family characteristics, and enrollment decisions are derived from medical claims and enrollment files. Interviews with human resources executives provide additional data. CDHP risk scores were 74 percent of traditional plan scores in the first year, and this difference declined over time. Employer contributions to accounts and employee premium savings fostered CDHP enrollment and reduced risk selection. Having to make an active choice of plan increased CDHP enrollment but also increased risk selection. Risk selection was greater for singles than families and did not differ between HRA and HSA-based CDHPs. Risk selection was not severe and it was well managed. Employers have effective methods to encourage CDHP enrollment and temper selection against traditional plans.

Knowledge and perceptions of the risks of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs among orthopaedic patients in Thailand.

PubMed

Phueanpinit, Pacharaporn; Pongwecharak, Juraporn; Krska, Janet; Jarernsiripornkul, Narumol

2016-10-01

Background There is a high incidence of adverse effects from non-steroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in Thailand, but patients' perceptions and knowledge of NSAID risks is unknown. Objective This study aims to assess patients' perceptions and knowledge of NSAID risks and factors affecting them. Setting University hospital in North-East of Thailand. Method A Cross-sectional study conducted over 4 months, using a self-administered questionnaire. Patients prescribed NSAIDs for at least one month duration from orthopaedic clinic were recruited using systematic random sampling. Main outcome measure Patients' perceptions on NSAID risks, knowledge on risk factors, and their associated factors. Results A total of 474 questionnaires were assessed. Overall perceptions of risks was low (scoring below five on a 0-10 visual analogue scale), with risks associated with the renal system scoring highest. Perceived risk of gastrointestinal problems differed between patients using non-selective and selective NSAIDs (3.47 ± 2.75 vs 2.06 ± 2.98; P < 0.001). Receiving side effect information from a health professional was associated with higher risk perception. Most patients (80 %) identified high doses, renal disease and gastrointestinal ulcer increased risks of NSAIDs, but fewer than half recognized that use in the elderly, multiple NSAID use, drinking, hypertension and cardiovascular disease also increased risk of adverse events. Having underlying diseases and receiving side effect information were associated with 1.6-2.0 fold increased knowledge of NSAID risks. Conclusion Perceptions and knowledge concerning NSAID risks was generally low in Thai patients, but higher in those who had received side effect information. Risk-related information should be widely provided, especially in high-risk patients.

Estimating the contribution of genetic variants to difference in incidence of disease between population groups.

PubMed

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Ioannidis, John P A; Flanders, W Dana; Yang, Quanhe; Truman, Benedict I; Khoury, Muin J

2012-08-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic susceptibility variants to several complex human diseases. However, risk-genotype frequency at loci showing robust associations might differ substantially among different populations. In this paper, we present methods to assess the contribution of genetic variants to the difference in the incidence of disease between different population groups for different scenarios. We derive expressions for the contribution of a single genetic variant, multiple genetic variants, and the contribution of the joint effect of a genetic variant and an environmental factor to the difference in the incidence of disease. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence increases with increasing difference in risk-genotype frequency, but declines with increasing difference in incidence between the two populations. The contribution of genetic variants also increases with increasing relative risk and the contribution of joint effect of genetic and environmental factors increases with increasing relative risk of the gene-environmental interaction. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence between two populations can be expressed as a function of the population attributable risks of the genetic variants in the two populations. The contribution of a group of genetic variants to the disparity in incidence of disease could change considerably by adding one more genetic variant to the group. Any estimate of genetic contribution to the disparity in incidence of disease between two populations at this stage seems to be an elusive goal.

Estimating the contribution of genetic variants to difference in incidence of disease between population groups

PubMed Central

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Ioannidis, John PA; Flanders, W Dana; Yang, Quanhe; Truman, Benedict I; Khoury, Muin J

2012-01-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic susceptibility variants to several complex human diseases. However, risk-genotype frequency at loci showing robust associations might differ substantially among different populations. In this paper, we present methods to assess the contribution of genetic variants to the difference in the incidence of disease between different population groups for different scenarios. We derive expressions for the contribution of a single genetic variant, multiple genetic variants, and the contribution of the joint effect of a genetic variant and an environmental factor to the difference in the incidence of disease. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence increases with increasing difference in risk-genotype frequency, but declines with increasing difference in incidence between the two populations. The contribution of genetic variants also increases with increasing relative risk and the contribution of joint effect of genetic and environmental factors increases with increasing relative risk of the gene–environmental interaction. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence between two populations can be expressed as a function of the population attributable risks of the genetic variants in the two populations. The contribution of a group of genetic variants to the disparity in incidence of disease could change considerably by adding one more genetic variant to the group. Any estimate of genetic contribution to the disparity in incidence of disease between two populations at this stage seems to be an elusive goal. PMID:22333905

Toxic-Metabolic Risk Factors in Pediatric Pancreatitis: Recommendations for Diagnosis, Management and Future Research

PubMed Central

Husain, Sohail Z.; Morinville, Veronique; Pohl, John; Abu-El-Haija, Maisam; Bellin, Melena D.; Freedman, Steve; Hegyi, Peter; Heyman, Melvin B; Himes, Ryan; Ooi, Chee Y.; Schwarzenberg, Sarah Jane; Usatin, Danielle; Uc, Aliye

2016-01-01

Objectives Pancreatitis in children can result from metabolic and toxic risk factors, but the evidence linking these factors is sparse. We review the evidence for association or causality of these risk factors in pancreatitis, discuss management strategies and their rationale. Methods We conducted a review of the pediatric pancreatitis literature with respect to the following risk factors: (a) hyperlipidemia, (b) hypercalcemia, (c) chronic renal failure, (d) smoking exposure, (e) alcohol, and (f) medications. Areas of additional research were identified. Results Hypertriglyceridemia of 1000 mg/dl or greater poses an absolute risk for pancreatitis; persistent elevations of calcium are predisposing. Further research is necessary to determine whether end stage renal disease leads to increased pancreatitis in children similar to adults. It is unknown whether cigarette smoking exposure, which clearly increases risk in adults, also increases risk in children. The role of alcohol in pediatric pancreatitis, whether direct or modifying, needs to be elucidated. The evidence supporting most cases of medication-induced pancreatitis is poor. Drug structure, improper handling of drug by host, and by-stander status may be implicated. Other pancreatitis risk factors must be sought in all cases. Conclusions The quality of evidence supporting causative role of various toxic and metabolic factors in pediatric pancreatitis is variable. Careful phenotyping is essential, including search for other etiologic risk factors. Directed therapy includes correction/ removal of any agent identified, and general supportive measures. Further research is necessary to improve our understanding of these pancreatitis risk factors in children. PMID:26594832

Diagnosis of toxic alcohols: limitations of present methods.

PubMed

Kraut, Jeffrey A

2015-01-01

Methanol, ethylene glycol, diethylene glycol, and propylene glycol intoxications are associated with cellular dysfunction and an increased risk of death. Adverse effects can develop quickly; thus, there is a need for methods for rapidly detecting their presence. To examine the value and limitations of present methods to diagnose patients with possible toxic alcohol exposure. I searched MEDLINE for articles published between 1969 and 2014 using the terms: toxic alcohols, serum osmolality, serum osmol gap, serum anion gap, metabolic acidosis, methanol, ethylene glycol, diethylene glycol, propylene glycol, and fomepizole. Each article was reviewed for additional references. The diagnosis of toxic alcohol exposure is often made on the basis of this history and physical findings along with an increase in the serum osmol and anion gaps. However, an increase in the osmol and/or anion gaps is not always present. Definitive detection in blood requires gas or liquid chromatography, laborious and expensive procedures which are not always available. Newer methods including a qualitative colorimetric test for detection of all alcohols or enzymatic tests for a specific alcohol might allow for more rapid diagnosis. Exposure to toxic alcohols is associated with cellular dysfunction and increased risk of death. Treatment, if initiated early, can markedly improve outcome, but present methods of diagnosis including changes in serum osmol and anion gap, and use of gas or liquid chromatography have important limitations. Development of more rapid and effective tests for detection of these intoxications is essential for optimal care of patients.

Failure to perceive increased risk of fracture in women 55 years and older: the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW)

PubMed Central

Gehlbach, S.; Adachi, J. D.; Boonen, S.; Chapurlat, R. D.; Compston, J. E.; Cooper, C.; Delmas, P.; Díez-Pérez, A.; Hooven, F. H.; LaCroix, A. Z.; Netelenbos, J. C.; Pfeilschifter, J.; Rossini, M.; Roux, C.; Saag, K. G.; Sambrook, P.; Silverman, S.; Watts, N. B.; Wyman, A.; Greenspan, S. L.

2010-01-01

Summary We compared self-perception of fracture risk with actual risk among 60,393 postmenopausal women aged ≥55 years, using data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW). Most postmenopausal women with risk factors failed to appreciate their actual risk for fracture. Improved education about osteoporosis risk factors is needed. Introduction This study seeks to compare self-perception of fracture risk with actual risk among postmenopausal women using data from GLOW. Methods GLOW is an international, observational, cohort study involving 723 physician practices in 17 sites in ten countries in Europe, North America, and Australia. Participants included 60,393 women ≥55 years attended by their physician during the previous 24 months. The sample was enriched so that two thirds were ≥65 years. Baseline surveys were mailed October 2006 to February 2008. Main outcome measures were self-perception of fracture risk in women with elevated risk vs women of the same age and frequency of risk factors for fragility fracture. Results In the overall study population, 19% (10,951/58,434) of women rated their risk of fracture as a little/much higher than that of women of the same age; 46% (27,138/58,434) said it was similar; 35% (20,345/58,434) believed it to be a little/much lower. Among women whose actual risk was increased based on the presence of any one of seven risk factors for fracture, the proportion who recognized their increased risk ranged from 19% for smokers to 39% for current users of glucocorticoid medication. Only 33% (4,185/12,612) of those with ≥2 risk factors perceived themselves as being at higher risk. Among women reporting a diagnosis of osteopenia or osteoporosis, only 25% and 43%, respectively, thought their risk was increased. Conclusion In this international, observational study, most postmenopausal women with risk factors failed to appreciate their actual risk for fracture. PMID:20358360

Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Large, Population-Based Cohort of Breast Cancer Survivors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boekel, Naomi B.; Schaapveld, Michael; Gietema, Jourik A.

Purpose: To conduct a large, population-based study on cardiovascular disease (CVD) in breast cancer (BC) survivors treated in 1989 or later. Methods and Materials: A large, population-based cohort comprising 70,230 surgically treated stage I to III BC patients diagnosed before age 75 years between 1989 and 2005 was linked with population-based registries for CVD. Cardiovascular disease risks were compared with the general population, and within the cohort using competing risk analyses. Results: Compared with the general Dutch population, BC patients had a slightly lower CVD mortality risk (standardized mortality ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.97). Only death due to valvular heartmore » disease was more frequent (standardized mortality ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.08-1.52). Left-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy increased the risk of any cardiovascular event compared with both surgery alone (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.11-1.36) and right-sided radiation therapy (sHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36). Radiation-associated risks were found for not only ischemic heart disease, but also for valvular heart disease and congestive heart failure (CHF). Risks were more pronounced in patients aged <50 years at BC diagnosis (sHR 1.48, 95% CI 1.07-2.04 for left- vs right-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy). Left- versus right-sided radiation therapy after wide local excision did not increase the risk of all CVD combined, yet an increased ischemic heart disease risk was found (sHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.28). Analyses including detailed radiation therapy information showed an increased CVD risk for left-sided chest wall irradiation alone, left-sided breast irradiation alone, and internal mammary chain field irradiation, all compared with right-sided breast irradiation alone. Compared with patients not treated with chemotherapy, chemotherapy used ≥1997 (ie, anthracyline-based chemotherapy) increased the risk of CHF (sHR 1.35, 95% CI 1.00-1.83). Conclusion: Radiation therapy regimens used in BC treatment between 1989 and 2005 increased the risk of CVD, and anthracycline-based chemotherapy regimens increased the risk of CHF.« less

Assessing the port to port risk of vessel movements vectoring non-indigenous marine species within and across domestic Australian borders.

PubMed

Campbell, Marnie L; Hewitt, Chad L

2011-07-01

Biofouling of vessels is implicated as a high risk transfer mechanism of non-indigenous marine species (NIMS). Biofouling on international vessels is managed through stringent border control policies, however, domestic biofouling transfers are managed under different policies and legislative arrangements as they cross internal borders. As comprehensive guidelines are developed and increased compliance of international vessels with 'clean hull' expectations increase, vessel movements from port to port will become the focus of biosecurity management. A semi-quantitative port to port biofouling risk assessment is presented that evaluates the presence of known NIMS in the source port and determines the likelihood of transfer based on the NIMS association with biofouling and environmental match between source and receiving ports. This risk assessment method was used to assess the risk profile of a single dredge vessel during three anticipated voyages within Australia, resulting in negligible to low risk outcomes. This finding is contrasted with expectations in the literature, specifically those that suggest slow moving vessels pose a high to extreme risk of transferring NIMS species.

“Every disease…man can get can start in this cab”: Focus groups to identify South Asian taxi drivers’ knowledge, attitudes and beliefs about cardiovascular disease and its risks

PubMed Central

Gany, Francesca M; Gill, Pavan P; Ahmed, Ayaz; Acharya, Sudha; Leng, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Background South Asian (SA) taxi drivers potentially possess a double epidemiologic risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) due to their ethnicity and occupation. This study investigates SA taxi drivers’ knowledge, attitudes, beliefs about general health, CVD and approaches to reduce CVD risk. Method Five focus groups were conducted with 31 SA taxi drivers in the participants’ primary language (Bengali, Hindi, Urdu or Punjabi). Audio-recordings of the sessions were transcribed, translated and entered into ATLAS.ti 6.2 for coding and analysis. Results SA drivers in an urban setting perceive themselves to be at high risk for CVD because of high work-related stress, physical inactivity, poor diet and poor health care access. Participants attributed their occupation to increasing risk for heart disease; none believed that being SA increased their risk. Discussion Interventions to lower CVD risk among SA taxi drivers should be multi-level and involve the individual drivers and the taxi industry. PMID:22843321

The clinical relevance of the Waterlow pressure sore risk scale in the ICU.

PubMed

Weststrate, J T; Hop, W C; Aalbers, A G; Vreeling, A W; Bruining, H A

1998-08-01

To evaluate whether the Waterlow pressure sore risk (PSR) scale has prognostic significance for intensive care patients. A prospective study. The surgical intensive care unit (ICU) of the University Hospital Rotterdam. Data were evaluated from 594 patients who had been admitted to the ICU during the year 1994. Each patient was assessed daily with respect to their Waterlow PSR score and the development of pressure sores in the sacral region. Actuarial statistical methods were used to analyse the predictive value of the risk score. When a patient had a Waterlow PSR score > 25 on admission, the risk of developing a pressure sore was significantly increased compared to patients with a PSR score < 25. After admission, the daily Waterlow PSR scores obtained were significantly associated with the risk of developing a pressure sore. For each additional point this risk increased by 23% (95% confidence interval 17 to 28%). The Waterlow PSR scale provides the medical and nursing staff at an early stage with reliable information about the risk patients have in developing a pressure sore.

Cesarean Section and Interferon-Induced Helicase Gene Polymorphisms Combine to Increase Childhood Type 1 Diabetes Risk

PubMed Central

Bonifacio, Ezio; Warncke, Katharina; Winkler, Christiane; Wallner, Maike; Ziegler, Anette-G.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE The incidence of type 1 diabetes is increasing. Delivery by cesarean section is also more prevalent, and it is suggested that cesarean section is associated with type 1 diabetes risk. We examine associations between cesarean delivery, islet autoimmunity and type 1 diabetes, and genes involved in type 1 diabetes susceptibility. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Cesarean section was examined as a risk factor in 1,650 children born to a parent with type 1 diabetes and followed from birth for the development of islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes. RESULTS Children delivered by cesarean section (n = 495) had more than twofold higher risk for type 1 diabetes than children born by vaginal delivery (hazard ratio [HR] 2.5; 95% CI 1.4–4.3; P = 0.001). Cesarean section did not increase the risk for islet autoantibodies (P = 0.6) but was associated with a faster progression to diabetes after the appearance of autoimmunity (P = 0.015). Cesarean section–associated risk was independent of potential confounder variables (adjusted HR 2.7;1.5–5.0; P = 0.001) and observed in children with and without high-risk HLA genotypes. Interestingly, cesarean section appeared to interact with immune response genes, including CD25 and in particular the interferon-induced helicase 1 gene, where increased risk for type 1 diabetes was only seen in children who were delivered by cesarean section and had type 1 diabetes–susceptible IFIH1 genotypes (12-year risk, 9.1 vs. <3% for all other combinations; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that type 1 diabetes risk modification by cesarean section may be linked to viral responses in the preclinical autoantibody-positive disease phase. PMID:22110093

Sleep duration and risk of coronary heart disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Wang, Dongming; Li, Wenzhen; Cui, Xiuqing; Meng, Yidi; Zhou, Min; Xiao, Lili; Ma, Jixuan; Yi, Guilin; Chen, Weihong

2016-09-15

Epidemiological studies suggest an association between sleep duration and risk of coronary heart disease, however, the results are controversial. We conducted this systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize the potential dose-response relationship between sleep duration and risk of coronary heart disease. The electronic reference databases (PubMed and Embase) were searched through January 2016 with selection criteria for relevant studies. Both semiparametric and parametric methods were used to calculate the pooled risk estimates. Seventeen articles with 22 independent reports involving 17,841 incident cases of coronary heart disease among 517,440 participants were included in our meta-analysis. A U-shaped relationship was detected between sleep duration and risk of coronary heart disease, with the lowest risk at 7-8h per day. Compared with 7h sleep duration per day, the combined relative risk of coronary heart disease were 1.11 (95% CI=1.05-1.16) for an reduction of 1h and 1.07 (95% CI=1.00-1.15) for an increment of 1h. And the results almost did not change in the subgroup analysis of gender and fatal cases. Exclusion of any single study did not alter the combined relative risk. In addition, visual inspection of funnel plots, Begg's and Egger's tests failed to identify publication bias. Both short and long sleep durations are significantly associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease. Compared with 7h sleep duration per day, the risk of coronary heart disease increases 11% for an hour decrease and increases 7% for an hour increase. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A prospective study of smoking and breast cancer risk among African American women

PubMed Central

Rosenberg, Lynn; Boggs, Deborah A.; Bethea, Traci N.; Wise, Lauren A.; Adams-Campbell, Lucile L.; Palmer, Julie R.

2013-01-01

Purpose Active smoking and passive smoking have been associated with increased risk of breast cancer. The purpose of the present study was to prospectively assess associations of smoking with breast cancer and identify subgroups at higher risk among African American women. Methods Based on 1,377 incident cases identified during 14 years of follow-up in the Black Women’s Health Study, we assessed active and passive smoking in relation to breast cancer incidence by menopausal status, estrogen receptor status, and other factors. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for categories of smoking relative to no active or passive smoking were calculated from Cox proportional hazards models, controlling for breast cancer risk factors. Results Active smoking was associated with increased risk of premenopausal breast cancer. The IRR was 1.21 (95% CI 0.90–1.62) for premenopausal breast cancer overall, and 1.70 (95% CI 1.05–2.75) for premenopausal breast cancer associated with beginning smoking before age 18 together with accumulation of ≥ 20 pack years. The positive association with premenopausal breast cancer was most apparent for estrogen receptor positive cancer. Passive smoking was also associated with increased risk of premenopausal breast cancer (IRR=1.42, 95% CI 1.09–1.85), based on information on passive smoking at home and work. Neither active nor passive smoking was associated with increased risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. Conclusion These results strengthen the evidence that both active and passive smoking increase the incidence of premenopausal breast cancer. PMID:24085586

Asthma exacerbations in children immediately following stressful life events: a Cox's hierarchical regression.

PubMed

Sandberg, S; Järvenpää, S; Penttinen, A; Paton, J Y; McCann, D C

2004-12-01

A recent prospective study of children with asthma employing a within subject, over time analysis using dynamic logistic regression showed that severely negative life events significantly increased the risk of an acute exacerbation during the subsequent 6 week period. The timing of the maximum risk depended on the degree of chronic psychosocial stress also present. A hierarchical Cox regression analysis was undertaken to examine whether there were any immediate effects of negative life events in children without a background of high chronic stress. Sixty children with verified chronic asthma were followed prospectively for 18 months with continuous monitoring of asthma by daily symptom diaries and peak flow measurements, accompanied by repeated interview assessments of life events. The key outcome measures were asthma exacerbations and severely negative life events. An immediate effect evident within the first 2 days following a severely negative life event increased the risk of a new asthma attack by a factor of 4.69, 95% confidence interval 2.33 to 9.44 (p<0.001) [corrected] In the period 3-10 days after a severe event there was no increased risk of an asthma attack (p = 0.5). In addition to the immediate effect, an increased risk of 1.81 (95% confidence interval 1.24 to 2.65) [corrected] was found 5-7 weeks after a severe event (p = 0.002). This is consistent with earlier findings. There was a statistically significant variation due to unobserved factors in the incidence of asthma attacks between the children. The use of statistical methods capable of investigating short time lags showed that stressful life events significantly increase the risk of a new asthma attack immediately after the event; a more delayed increase in risk was also evident 5-7 weeks later.

Impact of Incident Diabetes on Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease According to Statin Use History among Postmenopausal Women

PubMed Central

Ma, Yunsheng; Persuitte, Gioia M.; Andrews, Christopher; Hovey, Kathleen M.; LaMonte, Michael J.; Culver, Annie L.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Phillips, Lawrence S.; Liu, Simin; Eaton, Charles; Martin, Lisa W.; Howard, Barbara V.; Balasubramanian, Raji; Bird, Chloe E.; Ockene, Ira S.; Sturgeon, Susan R.; Ockene, Judith K.; Tinker, Lesley; Nassir, Rami; Rossouw, Jacques

2016-01-01

Objective To compare impact of incident diabetes on atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk among postmenopausal women according to statin use. Research Design and Methods Prospective data from 120,499 postmenopausal women without prevalent diabetes or cardiovascular disease at baseline from the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) were used. Incident diabetes was self-reported annually and defined as treatment with pills or injectable medication for diabetes. Current statin use was determined at enrollment and years 1, 3, 6, 9 and 13.5 in the three clinical trial arms, and at baseline, year 3, and 13.5 for the observational study. The primary outcome was incident ASCVD events, self-reported annually and adjudicated by blinded local and central physicians. Incident diabetes and statin use status were fitted as time-varying covariates in Cox regression models to assess ASCVD risk during an average follow-up of 13.6 years. Results For those not on statins at the time of diabetes diagnosis, there was a 42% increased risk of ASCVD [hazard ratio (HR)=1.42, 95% CI, 1.28–1.58] among women with incident diabetes vs. those without diabetes. Among women on statins, there was a 39% increased risk of ASCVD (HR=1.39, 95% CI, 1.12–1.74) in women with incident diabetes vs. those without diabetes. The increased ASCVD risk due to diabetes was similar between women before or after initiating statins (p=0.89). Conclusions Whether diabetes was diagnosed before or after statin use did not alter the increased risk of ASCVD associated with diabetes. Mitigating the increased incidence of diabetes in statin users could increase the ASCVD benefit-to-risk ratio of statins. PMID:27188186

Risk for Valvular Heart Disease After Treatment for Hodgkin Lymphoma

PubMed Central

Cutter, David J.; Schaapveld, Michael; Darby, Sarah C.; Hauptmann, Michael; van Nimwegen, Frederika A.; Krol, Augustinus D. G.; Janus, Cecile P. M.; van Leeuwen, Flora E.

2015-01-01

Background: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors are at increased risk for developing valvular heart disease (VHD). We evaluated the determinants of the risk and the radiation dose-response. Methods: A case-control study was nested in a cohort of 1852 five-year HL survivors diagnosed at ages 15 to 41 years and treated between 1965 and 1995. Case patients had VHD of at least moderate severity as their first cardiovascular diagnosis following HL treatment. Control patients were matched to case patients for age, gender, and HL diagnosis date. Treatment and follow-up data were abstracted from medical records. Radiation doses to heart valves were estimated by reconstruction of individual treatments on representative computed tomography datasets. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: Eighty-nine case patients with VHD were identified (66 severe or life-threatening) and 200 control patients. Aortic (n = 63) and mitral valves (n = 42) were most frequently affected. Risks increased more than linearly with radiation dose. For doses to the affected valve(s) of less than or equal to 30, 31–35, 36–40, and more than 40 Gy, VHD rates increased by factors of 1.4, 3.1, 5.4, and 11.8, respectively (P trend < .001). Approximate 30-year cumulative risks were 3.0%, 6.4%, 9.3%, and 12.4% for the same dose categories. VHD rate increased with splenectomy by a factor of 2.3 (P = .02). Conclusions: Radiation dose to the heart valves can increase the risk for clinically significant VHD, especially at doses above 30 Gy. However, for patients with mediastinal involvement treated today with 20 or 30 Gy, the 30-year risk will be increased by only about 1.4%. These findings may be useful for patients and doctors both before treatment and during follow-up. PMID:25713164

Increased risk of congenital heart disease in twins in the North of England between 1998 and 2010

PubMed Central

Best, K E; Rankin, J

2015-01-01

Objective To examine the relative risk (RR) of congenital heart disease (CHD) in twins compared with singletons, according to chorionicity. Methods Twins and singletons with CHD notified to the Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey between 1998 and 2010 were included in this population-based study. Information on chorionicity was obtained from the Northern Survey of Twins and Multiple Pregnancy. Prevalence was calculated as the number of cases occurring in live births, late miscarriages (20–23 weeks), stillbirths (≥24 weeks) and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly, per 10 000 total births. The risk of CHD in twins compared with singletons was estimated using Poisson regression. Results There were 399 414 singleton births of which 2984 (0.7%) had CHD. Among 11 871 twin births, 154 (1.3%) had CHD; one twin was affected by CHD in 2.5% of twin pregnancies. Of 8605 dichorionic (DC) births and 2317 monochorionic (MC) births, 96 (1.1%) and 47 (2.0%) were associated with CHD. Compared with singletons, twins were at significantly increased risk of CHD (RR=1.73, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.04; p<0.001). MC twins were at 82% significantly increased risk of CHD compared with DC twins (RR=1.82, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.57; p<0.001). The RR of severe and mild CHD was particularly high in MC twins compared with singletons (292% increased risk, RR=3.92, 95% CI 1.25 to 12.30, p=0.02 and 207% increased risk, RR=3.07, 95% CI 2.20 to 4.28; p<0.001). Conclusions Compared with singletons, twins were at increased risk of CHD, the risk being substantially higher among MC twins. This information is important for health professionals when counselling women with twin pregnancies. PMID:26412859

Severe Obesity in Young Women and Reproductive Health: The Danish National Birth Cohort

PubMed Central

Nohr, Ellen A.; Timpson, Nicholas J.; Andersen, Camilla S.; Davey Smith, George; Olsen, Jørn; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.

2009-01-01

Background Little is known about reproductive health in severely obese women. In this study, we present associations between different levels of severe obesity and a wide range of health outcomes in the mother and child. Methods From the Danish National Birth Cohort, we obtained self-reported information about prepregnant body mass index (BMI) for 2451 severely obese women and 2450 randomly selected women from the remaining cohort who served as a comparison group. Information about maternal and infant outcomes was also self-reported or came from registers. Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between different levels of severe obesity and reproductive outcomes. Principal Findings Subfecundity was more frequent in severely obese women, and during pregnancy, they had an excess risk of urinary tract infections, gestational diabetes, preeclampsia and other hypertensive disorders which increased with severity of obesity. They tended to have a higher risk of both pre- and post-term birth, and risk of cesarean and instrumental deliveries increased across obesity categories. After birth, severely obese women more often failed to initiate or sustain breastfeeding. Risk of weight retention 1.5 years after birth was similar to that of other women, but after adjustment for gestational weight gain, the risk was increased, especially in women in the lowest obesity category. In infants, increasing maternal obesity was associated with decreased risk of a low birth weight and increased risk of a high birth weight. Estimates for ponderal index showed the same pattern indicating an increasing risk of neonatal fatness with severity of obesity. Infant obesity measured one year after birth was also increased in children of severely obese mothers. Conclusion Severe obesity is correlated with a substantial disease burden in reproductive health. Although the causal mechanisms remain elusive, these findings are useful for making predictions and planning health care at the individual level. PMID:20041193

2014 CRL Blood Pressure Study of Life Insurance Applicants.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Dolan, Vera F; Stout, Robert L

2015-01-01

Objective .- Define the relative mortality risk by systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in a relatively healthy cohort split by age and sex with adjustment for smoking status, other findings and admitted heart disease history. Method .- Blood pressure (BP in mm Hg), build, laboratory studies and limited medical history are collected when people apply for individual life insurance. Information on 2,472,706 applicants tested by Clinical Reference Laboratory from 1993 to 2007 was utilized with follow-up for vital status using the September 2011 Social Security Death Master File identifying 31,033 deaths. Data was analyzed by SBP and DBP split by age and sex accounting for smoking and for BMI, urine protein/creatinine ratio and history of heart disease in a Cox multivariate survival analysis. Separate analysis by admitted hypertension history was also conducted. Results are presented by SBP and DBP for 4 age-sex groups with and without added covariates beyond age and smoking status. Results .- Relative mortality progressively increased by SBP level from the 90 to 119 band (down to 80 in younger women) upward with little additional impact by DBP. Addition of covariates beyond age and smoking resulted in a 5% to 10% reduction in relative risk. Although high DBP had limited impact, a pulse pressure/SBP ratio >½ identified 1% of applicants at high mortality risk, with little difference in risk for ratios ≤½. Hypertension history with current BP control was associated with a 10% to 25% increase in relative mortality risk as compared to those with similar BP but no such history. Conclusion .- Increasing SBP is closely associated with increasing relative mortality, starting from the lowest SBP. Increasing DBP has little additional impact, but a pulse pressure/SBP ratio >½ is a potent marker of increased risk as well. Accounting for build and other laboratory findings reduces risk modestly. A history of hypertension with current control increases risk.

Airborne occupational exposures and risk of oesophageal and cardia adenocarcinoma

PubMed Central

Jansson, C; Plato, N; Johansson, A L V; Nyrén, O; Lagergren, J

2006-01-01

Background The reasons for the increasing incidence of and strong male predominance in patients with oesophageal and cardia adenocarcinoma remain unclear. The authors hypothesised that airborne occupational exposures in male dominated industries might contribute. Methods In a nationwide Swedish population based case control study, 189 and 262 cases of oesophageal and cardia adenocarcinoma respectively, 167 cases of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, and 820 frequency matched controls underwent personal interviews. Based on each study participant's lifetime occupational history the authors assessed cumulative airborne occupational exposure for 10 agents, analysed individually and combined, by a deterministic additive model including probability, frequency, and intensity. Furthermore, occupations and industries of longest duration were analysed. Relative risks were estimated by odds ratios (OR), with 95% confidence intervals (CI), using conditional logistic regression, adjusted for potential confounders. Results Tendencies of positive associations were found between high exposure to pesticides and risk of oesophageal (OR 2.3 (95% CI 0.9 to 5.7)) and cardia adenocarcinoma (OR 2.1 (95% CI 1.0 to 4.6)). Among workers highly exposed to particular agents, a tendency of an increased risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma was found. There was a twofold increased risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma among concrete and construction workers (OR 2.2 (95% CI 1.1 to 4.2)) and a nearly fourfold increased risk of cardia adenocarcinoma among workers within the motor vehicle industry (OR 3.9 (95% CI 1.5 to 10.4)). An increased risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OR 3.9 (95% CI 1.2 to 12.5)), and a tendency of an increased risk of cardia adenocarcinoma (OR 2.8 (95% CI 0.9 to 8.5)), were identified among hotel and restaurant workers. Conclusions Specific airborne occupational exposures do not seem to be of major importance in the aetiology of oesophageal or cardia adenocarcinoma and are unlikely to contribute to the increasing incidence or the male predominance. PMID:16421388

Maternal and Gestational Risk Factors for Hypospadias

PubMed Central

Akre, Olof; Boyd, Heather A.; Ahlgren, Martin; Wilbrand, Kerstin; Westergaard, Tine; Hjalgrim, Henrik; Nordenskjöld, Agneta; Ekbom, Anders; Melbye, Mads

2008-01-01

Background An increase in the prevalence of hypospadias has been reported, but the environmental causes remain virtually unknown. Objectives Our goal was to assess the association between risk of hypospadias and indicators of placental function and endogenous hormone levels, exposure to exogenous hormones, maternal diet during pregnancy, and other environmental factors. Methods We conducted a case–control study in Sweden and Denmark from 2000 through 2005 using self-administered questionnaires completed by mothers of hypospadias cases and matched controls. The response rate was 88% and 81% among mothers of cases and controls, respectively. The analyses included 292 cases and 427 controls. Results A diet during pregnancy lacking both fish and meat was associated with a more than 4-fold increased risk of hypospadias [odds ratio (OR) = 4.6; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.6–13.3]. Boys born to obese [body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30] women had a more than 2-fold increased risk of hypospadias (OR = 2.6; 95% CI, 1.2–5.7) compared with boys born to mothers with a normal weight (BMI = 20–24). Maternal hypertension during pregnancy and absence of maternal nausea increased a boy’s risk of hypospadias 2.0-fold (95% CI, 1.1–3.7) and 1.8-fold (95% CI, 1.2–2.8), respectively. Nausea in late pregnancy also appeared to be positively associated with hypospadias risk (OR = 7.6; 95% CI, 1.1–53). Conclusions A pregnancy diet lacking meat and fish appears to increase the risk of hypospadias in the offspring. Other risk associations were compatible with a role for placental insufficiency in the etiology of hypospadias. PMID:18709149

Prospective association between phobic anxiety and cardiac mortality in individuals with coronary heart disease

PubMed Central

Watkins, Lana L.; Blumenthal, James A.; Babyak, Michael A.; Davidson, Jonathan R.T.; McCants, Charles B.; O’Connor, Christopher; Sketch, Michael H.

2010-01-01

Objective Previous findings suggest that phobic anxiety may pose increased risk of cardiac mortality in medically healthy cohorts. The present study evaluated whether phobic anxiety is associated with increased risk of cardiac mortality in individuals with established coronary heart disease (CHD) and examined the role of reduced heart rate variability (HRV) in mediating this risk. Methods We performed a prospective cohort study in 947 CHD patients recruited during hospitalization for coronary angiography. At baseline, supine recordings of heart rate for HRV were collected, and participants completed the Crown-Crisp phobic anxiety scale. Fatal cardiac events were identified over an average period of 3 years. Results Female CHD patients reported significantly elevated levels of phobic anxiety when compared with male patients (p <.001) and survival analysis showed an interaction between gender and phobic anxiety in the prediction of cardiac mortality (p =.058) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) (p=.03). In women, phobic anxiety was associated with a 1.6-fold increased risk of cardiac mortality (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.15–2.11; p=.004) and a 2.0-fold increased risk of SCD (HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.16–3.52; p=.01) and was unassociated with increased mortality risk in men (p=.56). Phobic anxiety was weakly associated with reduced high frequency HRV in female patients (r=−.14, p=.02), but reduced HRV did not alter the association between phobic anxiety on mortality. Conclusions Phobic anxiety levels are high in women with CHD and may be a risk factor for cardiac-related mortality in women diagnosed with CHD. Reduced HRV measured during rest does not appear to mediate phobic anxiety-related risk. PMID:20639390

Living Near Major Traffic Roads and Risk of Deep Vein Thrombosis

PubMed Central

Baccarelli, Andrea; Martinelli, Ida; Pegoraro, Valeria; Melly, Steven; Grillo, Paolo; Zanobetti, Antonella; Hou, Lifang; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio; Schwartz, Joel

2010-01-01

Background Particulate air pollution has been consistently linked to increased risk of arterial cardiovascular disease. Few data on air pollution exposure and risk of venous thrombosis are available. We investigated whether living near major traffic roads increases the risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT), using distance from roads as a proxy for traffic exposure. Methods and Results Between 1995-2005, we examined 663 patients with DVT of the lower limbs and 859 age-matched controls from cities with population>15,000 inhabitants in Lombardia Region, Italy. We assessed distance from residential addresses to the nearest major traffic road using geographic information system methodology. The risk of DVT was estimated from logistic regression models adjusting for multiple clinical and environmental covariates. The risk of DVT was increased (Odds Ratio [OR]=1.33; 95% CI 1.03-1.71; p=0.03 in age-adjusted models; OR=1.47; 95%CI 1.10-1.96; p=0.008 in models adjusted for multiple covariates) for subjects living near a major traffic road (3 meters, 10th centile of the distance distribution) compared to those living farther away (reference distance of 245 meters, 90th centile). The increase in DVT risk was approximately linear over the observed distance range (from 718 to 0 meters), and was not modified after adjusting for background levels of particulate matter (OR=1.47; 95%CI 1.11-1.96; p=0.008 for 10th vs. 90th distance centile in models adjusting for area levels of particulate matter <10 μm in aerodynamic diameter [PM10] in the year before diagnosis). Conclusions Living near major traffic roads is associated with increased risk of DVT. PMID:19506111

Risk of Cerebrovascular Accidents and Ischemic Heart Disease in Cutaneous Lupus Erythematosus: A Population-based Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Singh, Abha G.; Crowson, Cynthia S.; Singh, Siddharth; Davis, Mark Denis P.; Maradit-Kremers, Hilal; Matteson, Eric L.; Chowdhary, Vaidehi R.

2017-01-01

Objective It is unclear whether isolated cutaneous lupus erythematosus (CLE) modifies cardiovascular risk. We estimated the cumulative incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases in a population-based CLE cohort, and compared the risk with a matched non-CLE cohort. Methods All incident cases of CLE in Olmsted County, Minnesota between 1965–2005 were followed until December 2013. Cumulative incidence of cerebrovascular accidents (CVA, including stroke, transient ischemic attack), ischemic heart disease (IHD, including coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, angina), heart failure, and peripheral arterial disease was derived and compared to an age-, sex- and calendar-year-matched non-CLE cohort using Cox models. Results There were a total of 155 patients with CLE (age at diagnosis, 48±16 years; 65% females; BMI, 26.3±7.1 kg/m2; 40% smokers, 9% with diabetes). During median follow-up of 14.6 years, 41 CLE patients developed cardiovascular events (15 patients with CVA, 32 patients with IHD), with a 20-year cumulative incidence of 31.6%. As compared to non-CLE subjects, the risk of CVAs (smoking-adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13–7.78) and PAD (HR, 2.06; 95% CI, 0.99–4.32) was increased in patients with CLE, but risk of IHD was not increased (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.57–1.54). There was no increase in cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 0.76–3.75). The magnitude of risk for any cardiovascular outcome was not significantly influenced by extent of cutaneous involvement. Conclusion CLE may be associated with an increased risk of CVA and PAD, but not IHD. Factors contributing to increase CVA risk in patients with CLE merit evaluation. PMID:27015109

Risk of Suicidal Events With Atomoxetine Compared to Stimulant Treatment: A Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Bussing, Regina; Kubilis, Paul; Gerhard, Tobias; Segal, Richard; Shuster, Jonathan J; Winterstein, Almut G

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Antidepressant effects on increased suicidality in children have raised public concern in recent years. Approved in 2002 for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder treatment, the selective noradrenalin-reuptake-inhibitor atomoxetine was initially investigated for the treatment of depression. In post-hoc analyses of clinical trial data, atomoxetine has been associated with an increased risk of suicidal ideation in children and adolescents. We analyzed whether the observed increased risk of suicidal ideation in clinical trials translates into an increased risk of suicidal events in pediatric patients treated with atomoxetine compared with stimulants in 26 Medicaid programs. METHODS: Employing a retrospective cohort design, we used propensity score–adjusted Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate the risk of suicide and suicide attempt in pediatric patients initiating treatment with atomoxetine compared with stimulants from 2002 to 2006. RESULTS: The first-line treatment cohort included 279 315 patients. During the first year of follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratio for current atomoxetine use compared with current stimulant use was 0.95 (95% CI 0.47–1.92, P = .88). The second-line treatment cohort included 220 215 patients. During the first year of follow-up, the adjusted hazard ratio for current atomoxetine use compared with current stimulant use was 0.71 (95% CI 0.30–1.67, P = .43). CONCLUSIONS: First- and second-line treatment of youths age 5 to 18 with atomoxetine compared with stimulants was not significantly associated with an increased risk of suicidal events. The low incidence of suicide and suicide attempt resulted in wide confidence intervals and did not allow stratified analysis of high-risk groups or assessment of suicidal risk associated with long-term use of atomoxetine. PMID:27244795

Male gynecomastia and risk for malignant tumours – a cohort study

PubMed Central

Olsson, H; Bladstrom, A; Alm, P

2002-01-01

Background Men with gynecomastia may suffer from absolute or relative estrogen excess and their risk of different malignancies may be increased. We tested whether men with gynecomastia were at greater risk of developing cancer. Methods A cohort was formed of all the men having a histopathological diagnosis of gynecomastia at the Department of Pathology, University of Lund, following an operation for either uni- or bilateral breast enlargement between 1970–1979. All possible causes of gynecomastia were accepted, such as endogenous or exogenous hormonal exposure as well as cases of unknown etiology. Prior to diagnosis of gynecomastia eight men had a diagnosis of prostate carcinoma, two men a diagnosis of unilateral breast cancer and one had Hodgkin's disease. These patients were included in the analyses. The final cohort of 446 men was matched to the Swedish Cancer Registry, Death Registry and General Population Registry. Results At the end of the follow up in December 1999, the cohort constituted 8375.2 person years of follow-up time. A total of 68 malignancies versus 66.07 expected were observed; SIR = 1.03 (95% CI 0.80–1.30). A significantly increased risk for testicular cancer; SIR = 5.82 (95% CI 1.20–17.00) and squamous cell carcinoma of the skin; SIR = 3.21 (95% CI 1.71–5.48) were noted. The increased risk appeared after 2 years of follow-up. A non-significantly increased risk for esophageal cancer was also seen while no new cases of male breast cancer were observed. However, in the prospective cohort, diagnostic operations for gynecomastia may substantially have reduced this risk Conclusions There is a significant increased risk of testicular cancer and squamous cell carcinoma of the skin in men who have been operated on for gynecomastia. PMID:12383352

Does sports participation (including level of performance and previous injury) increase risk of osteoarthritis? A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Tran, Gui; Smith, Toby O; Grice, Adam; Kingsbury, Sarah R; McCrory, Paul; Conaghan, Philip G

2016-01-01

Background To assess the relationship between sport and osteoarthritis (OA), and specifically to determine whether previous participation, in terms of level (elite or non-elite), type of sport, intensity or previous injury, was associated with OA. Methods This systematic review was developed using PRISMA guidelines. Databases were searched (to May 2016). Narrative review and meta-analysis (with risk ratio (RR) and 95% CIs) approaches were undertaken where appropriate. Study quality was assessed using GRADE. Results 46 studies were included. Narratively, 31 studies reported an increased risk of OA, with 19 demonstrating an increased risk in elite athletes. There was an increased risk after sports exposure (irrespective of type; RR 1.37; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.64; 21 studies). It remained uncertain whether there was a difference in risk of OA between elite and non-elite athletes (RR 1.37; 95% CI 0.84 to 2.22; 17 studies). The risk was higher in soccer (RR 1.42; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.77; 15 studies) but lower in runners (RR 0.86; 95% CI 0.53 to 1.41; 12 studies). 9 studies showed an association with the intensity of sport undertaken and OA. 5 studies demonstrated a higher prevalence of OA following meniscectomies and anterior cruciate ligament tears. Overall, the evidence was of GRADE ‘very low’ quality. Conclusions There was very low-quality evidence to support an increased relationship between sports participation and OA in elite participants. It is unclear whether there is a difference in risk between elite and non-elite participants with further prospective studies needed to evaluate this. Pooled findings suggested that significant injuries were associated with OA in soccer players. PMID:27683348

Does the prediction of breast cancer improve using a combination of mammographic density measures compared to individual measures alone?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong Sik Hee, Joseph Ryan; Harkness, Elaine F.; Gadde, Soujanya; Lim, Yit Y.; Maxwell, Anthony J.; Evans, D. Gareth; Howell, Anthony; Astley, Susan M.

2017-03-01

High mammographic density is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, however whether the association is stronger when there is agreement across measures is unclear. This study investigates whether a combination of density measures is a better predictor of breast cancer risk than individual methods alone. Women recruited to the Predicting Risk of Cancer At Screening (PROCAS) study and with mammographic density assessed using three different methods were included (n=33,304). Density was assessed visually using Visual Analogue Scales (VAS) and by two fully automated methods, Quantra and Volpara. Percentage breast density was divided into (high, medium and low) and combinations of measures were used to further categorise individuals (e.g. `all high'). A total of 667 breast cancers were identified and logistic regression was used to determine the relationship between breast density and breast cancer risk. In total, 44% of individuals were in the same tertile for all three measures, 8.6% were in non-adjacent (high and low) or mixed categories (high, medium and low). For individual methods the strongest association with breast cancer risk was for medium and high tertiles of VAS with odds ratios (OR) adjusted for age and BMI of 1.63 (95% CI 1.31-2.03) and 2.33 (1.87-2.90) respectively. For the combination of density methods the strongest association was for `all high' (OR 2.42, 1.77-3.31) followed by "two high" (OR 1.90, 1.35-3.31) and "two medium" (OR 1.88, 1.40-2.52). Combining density measures did not affect the magnitude of risk compared to using individual methods.

Investigation on the association between breast cancer and consumption patterns of combined oral contraceptive pills in the women of Isfahan in 2011.

PubMed

Ehsanpour, Soheila; Nejad, Fahime Seyed Ahmadi; Rajabi, Fariborz Mokarian; Taleghani, Fariba

2013-05-01

Oral contraceptive pills are among the most popular contraceptive methods, but the fear of cancer and cardiovascular disease overshadows its continuous use among women. This study aimed to define the association between consumption patterns of combined oral contraceptives among women with breast cancer. This is an analytical case-control study conducted on 175 women with breast cancer, referring to Seyed al Shohada Medical Center and private clinics in Isfahan to be treated and followed up in 2011, as well as 350 healthy women who were identical with the subjects in the study group regarding age and residential location. The data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire. Content validity and Cronbach's alpha were employed to confirm validity and scientific reliability of the questionnaire, respectively. The data were analyzed by descriptive and analytical statistical methods through SPSS. The findings showed that there was a significant association between history of contraceptive pills' consumption and incidence of breast cancer (P < 0.001). It was shown that the risk of developing breast cancer is increased by 2.27-fold among those with pills' consumption compared to those with no history of that. It was also shown that pills' consumption for 36-72 months increased the risk of breast cancer by 2.18-fold, the age of the first use being less than 20 years increased the risk by 3.28-fold, and time since the last use of less than 25 years increased the risk by 2.63-fold. There was no significant association between duration of use, age of the first and last use, and time since the first and last use in the study and control groups. The results showed that history of pills' consumption is associated with incidence of breast cancer regardless of the consumption pattern. Use of oral contraceptives pills at any age and for any duration can increase the risk of breast cancer.

Surveillance of nasal and bladder cancer to locate sources of exposure to occupational carcinogens.

PubMed Central

Teschke, K; Morgan, M S; Checkoway, H; Franklin, G; Spinelli, J J; van Belle, G; Weiss, N S

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To locate sources of occupational exposure to nasal and bladder carcinogens for surveillance follow up in British Columbia, Canada. METHODS: Incident cases of nasal cancer (n = 48), bladder cancer (n = 105), and population based controls (n = 159) matched for sex and age, were interviewed about their jobs, exposures, and smoking histories. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for 57 occupational groups with stratified exact methods to control for age, sex, and smoking. RESULTS: Occupational groups at increased risk of nasal cancer included: textile workers (six cases, OR 7.6); miners, drillers, and blasters (six cases, OR 3.5); welders (two cases, OR 3.5); pulp and paper workers (three cases, OR 3.1); and plumbers and pipefitters (two cases, OR 3.0). Nasal cancer ORs were not increased in occupations exposed to wood dust, possibly due to low exposures in local wood industries. Strongly increased risks of bladder cancer were found for sheet metal workers (four cases, OR 5.3), miners (19 cases, OR 4.5), gardeners (six cases, OR 3.7), and hairdressers (three cases, OR 3.2). Among occupations originally considered at risk, the following had increased risks of bladder cancer: painters (four cases, OR 2.8); laundry workers (five cases, OR 2.3); chemical and petroleum workers (15 cases, OR 1.8); machinists (eight cases, OR 1.6); and textile workers (three cases, OR 1.5). CONCLUSIONS: Occupational groups with increased risks and three or more cases with similar duties were selected for surveillance follow up. For nasal cancer, these included textile workers (five were garment makers) and pulp and paper workers (three performed maintenance tasks likely to entail stainless steel welding). For bladder cancer, these included miners (12 worked underground), machinists (five worked in traditional machining), hairdressers (three had applied hair dyes), and laundry workers (three were drycleaners). PMID:9245952

Pathophysiology, risk factors, and screening methods for prediabetes in women with polycystic ovary syndrome

PubMed Central

Gourgari, Evgenia; Spanakis, Elias; Dobs, Adrian Sandra

2016-01-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a syndrome associated with insulin resistance (IR), obesity, infertility, and increased cardiometabolic risk. This is a descriptive review of several mechanisms that can explain the IR among women with PCOS, other risk factors for the development of diabetes, and the screening methods used for the detection of glucose intolerance in women with PCOS. Few mechanisms can explain IR in women with PCOS such as obesity, insulin receptor signaling defects, and inhibition of insulin-mediated glucose uptake in adipocytes. Women with PCOS have additional risk factors for the development of glucose intolerance such as family history of diabetes, use of oral contraceptives, anovulation, and age. The Androgen Society in 2007 and the Endocrine Society in 2013 recommended using oral glucose tolerance test as a screening tool for abnormal glucose tolerance in all women with PCOS. The approach to detection of glucose intolerance among women with PCOS varies among health care providers. Large prospective studies are still needed for the development of guidelines with strong evidence. When assessing risk of future diabetes in women with PCOS, it is important to take into account the method used for screening as well as other risk factors that these women might have. PMID:27570464

Pathophysiology, risk factors, and screening methods for prediabetes in women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

Gourgari, Evgenia; Spanakis, Elias; Dobs, Adrian Sandra

2016-01-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a syndrome associated with insulin resistance (IR), obesity, infertility, and increased cardiometabolic risk. This is a descriptive review of several mechanisms that can explain the IR among women with PCOS, other risk factors for the development of diabetes, and the screening methods used for the detection of glucose intolerance in women with PCOS. Few mechanisms can explain IR in women with PCOS such as obesity, insulin receptor signaling defects, and inhibition of insulin-mediated glucose uptake in adipocytes. Women with PCOS have additional risk factors for the development of glucose intolerance such as family history of diabetes, use of oral contraceptives, anovulation, and age. The Androgen Society in 2007 and the Endocrine Society in 2013 recommended using oral glucose tolerance test as a screening tool for abnormal glucose tolerance in all women with PCOS. The approach to detection of glucose intolerance among women with PCOS varies among health care providers. Large prospective studies are still needed for the development of guidelines with strong evidence. When assessing risk of future diabetes in women with PCOS, it is important to take into account the method used for screening as well as other risk factors that these women might have.

Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation.

PubMed

2016-02-01

We live in an age that increasingly calls for national or regional management of global risks. This article discusses the contributions that expert elicitation can bring to efforts to manage global risks and identifies challenges faced in conducting expert elicitation at this scale. In doing so it draws on lessons learned from conducting an expert elicitation as part of the World Health Organizations (WHO) initiative to estimate the global burden of foodborne disease; a study commissioned by the Foodborne Disease Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG). Expert elicitation is designed to fill gaps in data and research using structured, transparent methods. Such gaps are a significant challenge for global risk modeling. Experience with the WHO FERG expert elicitation shows that it is feasible to conduct an expert elicitation at a global scale, but that challenges do arise, including: defining an informative, yet feasible geographical structure for the elicitation; defining what constitutes expertise in a global setting; structuring international, multidisciplinary expert panels; and managing demands on experts' time in the elicitation. This article was written as part of a workshop, "Methods for Research Synthesis: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach" held at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis on October 13, 2013. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Tooth Whitening: What We Now Know

PubMed Central

Carey, Clifton M.

2014-01-01

Declarative Title Current research about tooth whitening shows that it is safe and effective when manufacturer’s protocol is followed, yet there are risks of which the profession and users should be aware. This update provides a summary of current research and assessment of the safety and efficacy of tooth whitening regimens. Background Tooth whitening has become one of the most frequently requested dental procedures by the public. The public has come to demand whiter, more perfect smiles and in response many choices for tooth whitening have been made available. These include home-based products such as toothpastes, gels, and films, as well as in-office based systems where products containing highly concentrated bleaching agents are applied under professional supervision. The profession and public have been aware of certain risks related to tooth whitening such as increased tooth sensitivity and gingival irritation. New research has shown that there are other risks such as tooth surface roughening and softening, increased potential for demineralization, degradation of dental restorations, and unacceptable color change of dental restorations. The new research is also focused on optimizing whitening procedures to reduce tooth sensitivity and to increase the persistence of the whitening. Methods Current reports in the literature are reviewed that are related to the use of peroxide based whitening methods. These reports include in vitro studies for method optimization and mechanism as well as clinical studies on effects of various whitening regimens. Conclusions When manufacturer’s instructions are followed, hydrogen peroxide and carbamide peroxide based tooth whitening is safe and effective. Patients should be informed of the risks associated with tooth whitening and instructed on identification of adverse occurrences so that they may seek professional help asneeded. PMID:24929591

Systemic and intensifying drought induces collapse and replacement of native fishes: a time-series approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruhi, A.; Olden, J. D.; Sabo, J. L.

2015-12-01

In the American Southwest, hydrologic drought has become a new normal as a result of increasing human appropriation of freshwater resources and increased aridity associated with global warming. Although drought has often been touted to threaten freshwater biodiversity, connecting drought to extinction risk of highly-imperiled faunas remains a challenge. Here we combine time-series methods from signal processing and econometrics to analyze a spatially comprehensive and long-term dataset to link discharge variation and community abundance of fish across the American Southwest. This novel time series framework identifies ongoing trends in daily discharge anomalies across the Southwest, quantifies the effect of the historical hydrologic drivers on fish community abundance, and allows us to simulate species trajectories and range-wide risk of decline (quasiextinction) under scenarios of future climate. Spectral anomalies are declining over the last 30 years in at least a quarter of the stream gaging stations across the American Southwest and these anomalies are robust predictors of historical abundance of native and non-native fishes. Quasiextinction probabilities are high (>50 %) for nearly ¾ of the native species across several large river basins in the same region; and the negative trend in annual anomalies increases quasiextinction risk for native but reduces this risk for non-native fishes. These findings suggest that ongoing drought is causing range-wide collapse and replacement of native fish faunas, and that this homogenization of western fish faunas will continue given the prevailing negative trend in discharge anomalies. Additionally, this combination of methods can be applied elsewhere as long as environmental and biological long-term time-series data are available. Collectively, these methods allow identifying the link between hydroclimatic forcing and ecological responses and thus may help anticipating the potential impacts of ongoing and future hydrologic extremes in freshwater ecosystems.

Prognosis of Parkinson disease: risk of dementia and mortality: the Rotterdam Study.

PubMed

de Lau, Lonneke M L; Schipper, C Maarten A; Hofman, Albert; Koudstaal, Peter J; Breteler, Monique M B

2005-08-01

Most prognostic studies on Parkinson disease have been hospital based or have applied register-based case-finding methods. Potential under-representation of mild cases may have given biased results. To evaluate whether Parkinson disease is associated with an increased risk of dementia and death. Population-based cohort study. Parkinson disease and dementia were assessed through in-person examination at baseline (1990-1993) and 2 follow-up visits (1993-1994 and 1997-1999). Computerized linkage to medical and municipality records provided additional information on disease outcomes and mortality. General population. A total of 6969 participants, including 99 prevalent and 67 incident cases of Parkinson disease. Incident dementia and death. Adjusted hazard ratios were calculated through Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Patients with Parkinson disease had an increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio, 2.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-4.4), which was especially pronounced in participants carrying at least 1 apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) epsilon2 allele (13.5; 4.5-40.6). Parkinson disease was associated with an increased mortality risk (1.8; 1.5-2.3). The association consistently diminished when analyses were sequentially restricted to patients with shorter disease duration and after adjustment for the occurrence of dementia. Especially patients with Parkinson disease who carry an APOE epsilon2 allele have an increased risk of developing dementia. Increased mortality risk in Parkinson disease is dependent on disease duration and is only modest in the absence of dementia.

Genital and extra-genital warts increase the risk of asymptomatic genital human papillomavirus infection in men

PubMed Central

Hernandez, Brenda Y; Shvetsov, Yurii B; Goodman, Marc T; Wilkens, Lynne R; Thompson, Pamela J; Zhu, Xuemei; Tom, James; Ning, Lily

2015-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the relationship of warts in different parts of the body and the risk of asymptomatic genital human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in men. Methods We examined the relationship of self-reported genital and extra-genital warts with the subsequent acquisition of asymptomatic genital HPV infection in a cohort of 331 adult men. Participants were followed at 2-month intervals for up to 4 years. Past and current presence of warts was queried at study entry. At each visit, the external genitals were sampled for HPV DNA testing. Results Men who reported a history of genital warts, including current warts, were at increased risk of acquisition of asymptomatic HPV infection of the penis glans/corona, penis shaft and scrotum. The magnitude of these associations was greatest for HPV 6/11 infection. History of warts on the fingers, arms and trunk of the body was also associated with increased risk of genital HPV infection. Current presence of warts on the fingers and trunk specifically increased the risk of acquisition of HPV types not typically found on the genitals. Conclusions Men with a history of warts on the genitals, fingers, arms and trunk may be at increased risk for acquisition of new genital HPV infections. Warts may provide an efficient reservoir for the transmission of virions to the genitals through auto-inoculation. The potential for the spread of HPV throughout the body through auto-inoculation has important implications for prevention and control of HPV infection. PMID:21602516

A forecasting method to reduce estimation bias in self-reported cell phone data.

PubMed

Redmayne, Mary; Smith, Euan; Abramson, Michael J

2013-01-01

There is ongoing concern that extended exposure to cell phone electromagnetic radiation could be related to an increased risk of negative health effects. Epidemiological studies seek to assess this risk, usually relying on participants' recalled use, but recall is notoriously poor. Our objectives were primarily to produce a forecast method, for use by such studies, to reduce estimation bias in the recalled extent of cell phone use. The method we developed, using Bayes' rule, is modelled with data we collected in a cross-sectional cluster survey exploring cell phone user-habits among New Zealand adolescents. Participants recalled their recent extent of SMS-texting and retrieved from their provider the current month's actual use-to-date. Actual use was taken as the gold standard in the analyses. Estimation bias arose from a large random error, as observed in all cell phone validation studies. We demonstrate that this seriously exaggerates upper-end forecasts of use when used in regression models. This means that calculations using a regression model will lead to underestimation of heavy-users' relative risk. Our Bayesian method substantially reduces estimation bias. In cases where other studies' data conforms to our method's requirements, application should reduce estimation bias, leading to a more accurate relative risk calculation for mid-to-heavy users.

Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method The Investment Risk Assessment of Chinese Enterprises in The Countries Along “The Belt and Road”

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanyu; Chai, Huaqi; Huang, Yimiao

2018-01-01

“Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation” held in Beijing in May this year. once again, “The Belt and Road” strategic initiative to the world, causing the world’s enthusiastic response. The core of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy initiative is to promote infrastructure construction and interconnection, dock national policies and development strategies, deepen pragmatic cooperation, promote coordinated and coordinated development and achieve common prosperity. With the “The Belt and Road” strategy in-depth, Chinese enterprises will go abroad, in the countries along the country to invest in more and more examples, accompanied by the increasing risk. Analysis of the failure of investment cases, we can easily find that this is the majority of enterprises overseas investment in the lack of careful assessment of risk and risk of foreign investment risk management has a great relationship. In this paper, the risk factors are used to identify the risk factors table, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to estimate the comprehensive risk value of many uncertain factors that cannot be determined by the overseas investment. The risk assessment system is constructed to help Chinese enterprises to follow the " Investment to avoid risks, improve the success rate.

Occupations with increased risk of pancreatic cancer in the Swedish population

PubMed Central

Alguacil, J; Pollan, M; Gustavsson, P

2003-01-01

Aims: To identify occupations with increased risk of pancreatic cancer in the Swedish population gainfully employed in 1970 over the period 1971–89. Methods: The base population was made up of Swedish men (1 779 646) and Swedish women (1 101 669) gainfully employed at the time of the 1970 census and were still alive and over age 24 on 1 January 1971. Information was drawn from two data sets: the Swedish cancer environment register and a background population register. After 19 years of follow up, 4420 men and 2143 women were diagnosed with histologically confirmed incident pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Log linear Poisson models were fitted, allowing for geographical area and town size. Risk estimators were also calculated for workers reporting the same occupation in 1960 and 1970. Results: Among women, a statistically significant risk excess of pancreatic cancer was observed for "educational methods advisors", "librarian, archivist, curator", "motor vehicle driver", "typographer, lithographer", "purser, steward, stewardess", "other housekeeping and related workers", and the groups of occupations of "electrical, electronic, and related" and "glass, pottery, and tile workers". Men showed a higher incidence of pancreatic cancer among "technical assistants", "travelling agents", "other metal processing workers", "baker and pastry cook", "docker and freight handler", and "waiters". Conclusions: This study does not indicate that occupational factors play an important role in the aetiology of pancreatic cancer in Sweden. Few occupations were at increased risk of pancreatic cancer in both men and women, and the associations observed are in accordance with some previous studies from Western countries. PMID:12883017

Methods for addressing "innocent bystanders" when evaluating safety of concomitant vaccines.

PubMed

Wang, Shirley V; Abdurrob, Abdurrahman; Spoendlin, Julia; Lewis, Edwin; Newcomer, Sophia R; Fireman, Bruce; Daley, Matthew F; Glanz, Jason M; Duffy, Jonathan; Weintraub, Eric S; Kulldorff, Martin

2018-04-01

The need to develop methods for studying the safety of childhood immunization schedules has been recognized by the Institute of Medicine and Department of Health and Human Services. The recommended childhood immunization schedule includes multiple vaccines in a visit. A key concern is safety of concomitant (same day) versus separate day vaccination. This paper addresses a methodological challenge for observational studies using a self-controlled design to investigate the safety of concomitant vaccination. We propose a process for distinguishing which of several concomitantly administered vaccines is responsible for increased risk of an adverse event while adjusting for confounding due to relationships between effect modifying risk factors and concomitant vaccine combinations. We illustrate the approach by re-examining the known increase in risk of seizure 7 to 10 days after measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination and evaluating potential independent or modifying effects of other vaccines. Initial analyses suggested that DTaP had both an independent and potentiating effect on seizure. After accounting for the relationship between age at vaccination and vaccine combination, there was little evidence for increased risk of seizure with same day administration of DTaP and MMR; incidence rate ratio, 95% confidence interval 1.2 (0.9-1.6), P value = θ.226. We have shown that when using a self-controlled design to investigate safety of concomitant vaccination, it can be critically important to adjust for time-invariant effect modifying risk factors, such as age at time of vaccination, which are structurally related to vaccination patterns due to recommended immunization schedules. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Factors associated with syphilis seropositive and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection among inmates at Lubuk Pakam prison, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sembiring, E.; Ginting, Y.; Saragih, R. H.

2018-03-01

Syphilis has been known to increase the risk of acquiring or transmitting HIV infection. Epidemiologic studies showed that HIV transmission is 3-5 times higher in people with syphilis.Hence, in this current study, the factors associated with syphilis-seropositive and HIV infection were evaluated.This study used cross-sectional study. This study included inmates at Lubuk Pakam prison in November 2016. After interviewing participants’ demographics and risk behaviors, blood samples were obtained to be tested for HIV and syphilis, using the Rapid Test tool of HIV 3 methods and One STEP Syphilis Anti TP-Test. A total number of 1,114 inmates were included in this study, consisted of 1,081 male (97%) and 33female (3%). Ten inmates were HIV-positive (0.9%), whereas 70 inmates were syphilis-seropositive (6.3%).Based on multivariate-analyses, high-risk sexual behaviors associated with the increased risk of syphilis-seropositive of up to 8.31 times (p=0.002). HIV status also portrayed higher risk of syphilis-seropositive compared to non-HIV participants (3.98 fold, p=0.019). In HIV incidence, found that high-risk sexual behaviors also significantly increased the risk of HIV (7.69 fold, p=0.003). Syphilis-seropositive was also highly associated with HIV risk (5.09 fold, p=0.019).Syphilis and HIV showed a close association with several shared contributing factors.

Sex Differences in Clinical Predictors of Suicidal Acts After Major Depression: A Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Oquendo, Maria A.; Bongiovi-Garcia, Mary E.; Galfalvy, Hanga; Goldberg, Pablo H.; Grunebaum, Michael F.; Burke, Ainsley K.; Mann, J. John

2013-01-01

Objective Whether sex differences exist in clinical risk factors associated with suicidal behavior is unknown. The authors postulated that among men with a major depressive episode, aggression, hostility, and history of substance misuse increase risk for future suicidal behavior, while depressive symptoms, childhood history of abuse, fewer reasons for living, and borderline personality disorder do so in depressed women. Method Patients with DSM-III-R major depression or bipolar disorder seeking treatment for a major depressive episode (N=314) were followed for 2 years. Putative predictors were tested with Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results During follow-up, 16.6% of the patients attempted or committed suicide. Family history of suicidal acts, past drug use, cigarette smoking, borderline personality disorder, and early parental separation each more than tripled the risk of future suicidal acts in men. For women, the risk for future suicidal acts was sixfold greater for prior suicide attempters; each past attempt increased future risk threefold. Suicidal ideation, lethality of past attempts, hostility, subjective depressive symptoms, fewer reasons for living, comorbid borderline personality disorder, and cigarette smoking also increased the risk of future suicidal acts for women. Conclusions These findings suggest that the importance of risk factors for suicidal acts differs in depressed men and women. This knowledge may improve suicide risk evaluation and guide future research on suicide assessment and prevention. PMID:17202555

Use of the Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique can lead to more robust risk control options.

PubMed

Card, Alan J; Simsekler, Mecit Can Emre; Clark, Michael; Ward, James R; Clarkson, P John

2014-01-01

Risk assessment is widely used to improve patient safety, but healthcare workers are not trained to design robust solutions to the risks they uncover. This leads to an overreliance on the weakest category of risk control recommendations: administrative controls. Increasing the proportion of non-administrative risk control options (NARCOs) generated would enable (though not ensure) the adoption of more robust solutions. Experimentally assess a method for generating stronger risk controls: The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique. Participants generated risk control options in response to two patient safety scenarios. Scenario 1 (baseline): All participants used current practice (unstructured brainstorming). Scenario 2: Control group used current practice; intervention group used the GO-ARC Technique. To control for individual differences between participants, analysis focused on the change in the proportion of NARCOs for each group. Proportion of NARCOs decreased from 0.18 at baseline to 0.12. Intervention group: Proportion increased from 0.10 at baseline to 0.29 using the GO-ARC Technique. Results were statistically significant. There was no decrease in the number of administrative controls generated by the intervention group. The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique appears to lead to more robust risk control options.

Integrating social capacity into risk reduction strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneiderbauer, S.; Pedoth, L.; Zebisch, M.

2012-04-01

The reduction of risk to impacts from external stresses and shocks is an important task in communities worldwide at all government levels and independent of the development status. The importance of building social capacity as part of risk reduction strategies is increasingly recognized. However, there is space for improvement to incorporate related activities into a holistic risk governance approach. Starting point for such enhancements is to promote and improve assessments of what is called 'sensitivity' or 'adaptive capacity' in the climate change community and what is named 'vulnerability' or 'resilience' in the hazard risk community. Challenging issues that need to be tackled in this context are the integration of concepts and method as well as the fusion of data. Against this background we introduce a method to assess regional adaptive capacity to climate change focusing on mountain areas accounting for sector specific problems. By considering three levels of specificity as base for the selection of most appropriate indicators the study results have the potential to support decision making regarding most appropriate adaptation actions. Advantages and shortcomings of certain aspects of adaptive capacity assessment in general and of the proposed method in particular are presented.

Cluster analysis to estimate the risk of preeclampsia in the high-risk Prediction and Prevention of Preeclampsia and Intrauterine Growth Restriction (PREDO) study

PubMed Central

Marttinen, Pekka; Gillberg, Jussi; Lokki, A. Inkeri; Majander, Kerttu; Ordén, Maija-Riitta; Taipale, Pekka; Pesonen, Anukatriina; Räikkönen, Katri; Hämäläinen, Esa; Kajantie, Eero; Laivuori, Hannele

2017-01-01

Objectives Preeclampsia is divided into early-onset (delivery before 34 weeks of gestation) and late-onset (delivery at or after 34 weeks) subtypes, which may rise from different etiopathogenic backgrounds. Early-onset disease is associated with placental dysfunction. Late-onset disease develops predominantly due to metabolic disturbances, obesity, diabetes, lipid dysfunction, and inflammation, which affect endothelial function. Our aim was to use cluster analysis to investigate clinical factors predicting the onset and severity of preeclampsia in a cohort of women with known clinical risk factors. Methods We recruited 903 pregnant women with risk factors for preeclampsia at gestational weeks 12+0–13+6. Each individual outcome diagnosis was independently verified from medical records. We applied a Bayesian clustering algorithm to classify the study participants to clusters based on their particular risk factor combination. For each cluster, we computed the risk ratio of each disease outcome, relative to the risk in the general population. Results The risk of preeclampsia increased exponentially with respect to the number of risk factors. Our analysis revealed 25 number of clusters. Preeclampsia in a previous pregnancy (n = 138) increased the risk of preeclampsia 8.1 fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.7–11.2) compared to a general population of pregnant women. Having a small for gestational age infant (n = 57) in a previous pregnancy increased the risk of early-onset preeclampsia 17.5 fold (95%CI 2.1–60.5). Cluster of those two risk factors together (n = 21) increased the risk of severe preeclampsia to 23.8-fold (95%CI 5.1–60.6), intermediate onset (delivery between 34+0–36+6 weeks of gestation) to 25.1-fold (95%CI 3.1–79.9) and preterm preeclampsia (delivery before 37+0 weeks of gestation) to 16.4-fold (95%CI 2.0–52.4). Body mass index over 30 kg/m2 (n = 228) as a sole risk factor increased the risk of preeclampsia to 2.1-fold (95%CI 1.1–3.6). Together with preeclampsia in an earlier pregnancy the risk increased to 11.4 (95%CI 4.5–20.9). Chronic hypertension (n = 60) increased the risk of preeclampsia 5.3-fold (95%CI 2.4–9.8), of severe preeclampsia 22.2-fold (95%CI 9.9–41.0), and risk of early-onset preeclampsia 16.7-fold (95%CI 2.0–57.6). If a woman had chronic hypertension combined with obesity, gestational diabetes and earlier preeclampsia, the risk of term preeclampsia increased 4.8-fold (95%CI 0.1–21.7). Women with type 1 diabetes mellitus had a high risk of all subgroups of preeclampsia. Conclusion The risk of preeclampsia increases exponentially with respect to the number of risk factors. Early-onset preeclampsia and severe preeclampsia have different risk profile from term preeclampsia. PMID:28350823

A utility/cost analysis of breast cancer risk prediction algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbey, Craig K.; Wu, Yirong; Burnside, Elizabeth S.; Wunderlich, Adam; Samuelson, Frank W.; Boone, John M.

2016-03-01

Breast cancer risk prediction algorithms are used to identify subpopulations that are at increased risk for developing breast cancer. They can be based on many different sources of data such as demographics, relatives with cancer, gene expression, and various phenotypic features such as breast density. Women who are identified as high risk may undergo a more extensive (and expensive) screening process that includes MRI or ultrasound imaging in addition to the standard full-field digital mammography (FFDM) exam. Given that there are many ways that risk prediction may be accomplished, it is of interest to evaluate them in terms of expected cost, which includes the costs of diagnostic outcomes. In this work we perform an expected-cost analysis of risk prediction algorithms that is based on a published model that includes the costs associated with diagnostic outcomes (true-positive, false-positive, etc.). We assume the existence of a standard screening method and an enhanced screening method with higher scan cost, higher sensitivity, and lower specificity. We then assess expected cost of using a risk prediction algorithm to determine who gets the enhanced screening method under the strong assumption that risk and diagnostic performance are independent. We find that if risk prediction leads to a high enough positive predictive value, it will be cost-effective regardless of the size of the subpopulation. Furthermore, in terms of the hit-rate and false-alarm rate of the of the risk prediction algorithm, iso-cost contours are lines with slope determined by properties of the available diagnostic systems for screening.

Daily co-occurrence of alcohol use and high-risk sexual behavior among heterosexual, heavy drinking emergency department patients.

PubMed

Wray, Tyler B; Celio, Mark A; Kahler, Christopher W; Barnett, Nancy P; Mastroleo, Nadine R; Operario, Don; Monti, Peter M

2015-07-01

Global association and experimental studies suggest that alcohol use may increase sexual behavior that poses risk for exposure to sexually transmitted infections (STI) among heterosexual men and women. However, results from longitudinal and daily recall studies exploring the co-occurrence of alcohol use with various sexual risk outcomes in more naturalistic contexts have been mixed, and the bulk of this research has focused on college students. The current study enrolled heavy-drinking emergency department (ED) patients and used a cross-sectional, 30-day Timeline Followback (TLFB) method to examine the daily co-occurrence between alcohol use and three sexual behavior outcomes: Any sex, unprotected intercourse (UI), and UI with casual partners (versus protected intercourse [PI] with casual partners, or UI/PI with steady partners). Results indicated that increasing levels of alcohol use on a given day increased the odds of engaging in any sexual activity and that heavy drinking (but not very heavy drinking) on a given day was associated with an increased odds of engaging in UI with either steady or casual partners. However, day-level alcohol use was not associated with an increased odds of UI with casual partners. These findings suggest that alcohol may play an important role in increasing risk for HIV/STIs among heterosexuals, and support the continued need to target heavy drinking in sex risk reduction interventions. However, our results also suggest that alcohol may not universally result in unprotected sex with casual partners, a behavior posing perhaps the highest risk for HIV/STI transmission. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Just how good an investment is the biopharmaceutical sector?

PubMed

Thakor, Richard T; Anaya, Nicholas; Zhang, Yuwei; Vilanilam, Christian; Siah, Kien Wei; Wong, Chi Heem; Lo, Andrew W

2017-12-01

Uncertainty surrounding the risk and reward of investments in biopharmaceutical companies poses a challenge to those interested in funding such enterprises. Using data on publicly traded stocks, we track the performance of 1,066 biopharmaceutical companies from 1930 to 2015-the most comprehensive financial analysis of this sector to date. Our systematic exploration of methods for distinguishing biotech and pharmaceutical companies yields a dynamic, more accurate classification method. We find that the performance of the biotech sector is highly sensitive to the presence of a few outlier companies, and confirm that nearly all biotech companies are loss-making enterprises, exhibiting high stock volatility. In contrast, since 2000, pharmaceutical companies have become increasingly profitable, with risk-adjusted returns consistently outperforming the market. The performance of all biopharmaceutical companies is subject not only to factors arising from their drug pipelines (idiosyncratic risk), but also from general economic conditions (systematic risk). The risk associated with returns has profound implications both for patterns of investment and for funding innovation in biomedical R&D.

Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in United Kingdom patients treated with human pituitary growth hormone.

PubMed

Swerdlow, A J; Higgins, C D; Adlard, P; Jones, M E; Preece, M A

2003-09-23

To investigate risk factors for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in patients in the United Kingdom treated with human pituitary growth hormone (hGH). Incidence rates of CJD, based on person-year denominators, were assessed in a cohort of 1,848 patients treated with hGH in the United Kingdom from 1959 through 1985 and followed to the end of 2000. CJD developed in 38 patients. Risk of CJD was significantly increased by treatment with hGH prepared by the Wilhelmi method of extraction from human pituitaries. Risk was further raised if this treatment was administered at ages 8 to 10 years. The peak risk of CJD was estimated to occur 20 years after first exposure, and the estimated lifetime cumulative risk of CJD in Wilhelmi-treated patients was 4.5%. Size-exclusion chromatography, used in non-Wilhelmi preparation methods, may prevent CJD infection. Susceptibility to CJD may vary with age, and susceptibility may be present in only a few percent of the population.

Medication use and the risk of motor vehicle collisions among licensed drivers: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Rudisill, Toni M.; Zhu, Motao; Kelley, George A.; Pilkerton, Courtney; Rudisill, Brandon R.

2016-01-01

Objectives Driving under the influence of prescription and over-the-counter medication is a growing public health concern. A systematic review of the literature was performed to investigate which specific medications were associated with increased risk of motor vehicle collision (MVC). Methods The a priori inclusion criteria were: 1) studies published from English-language sources on or after January 1, 1960, 2) licensed drivers 15 years of age and older, 3) peer-reviewed publications, master's theses, doctoral dissertations, and conference papers, 4) studies limited to randomized control trials, cohort studies, case-control studies, or case-control type studies 5) outcome measure reported for at least one specific medication, 6) outcome measure reported as the odds or risk of a motor vehicle collision. Fourteen databases were examined along with hand-searching. Independent, dual selection of studies and data abstraction was performed. Results Fifty-three medications were investigated by 27 studies included in the review. Fifteen (28.3%) were associated with an increased risk of MVC. These included Buprenorphine, Codeine, Dihydrocodeine, Methadone, Tramadol, Levocitirizine, Diazepam, Flunitrazepam, Flurazepam, Lorazepam, Temazepam, Triazolam, Carisoprodol, Zolpidem, and Zopiclone. Conclusions Several medications were associated with an increased risk of MVC and decreased driving ability. The associations between specific medication use and the increased risk of MVC and/or affected driving ability are complex. Future research opportunities are plentiful and worthy of such investigation. PMID:27569655

Depression is more than the sum-score of its parts: individual DSM symptoms have different risk factors

PubMed Central

Fried, Eiko I.; Nesse, Randolph M.; Zivin, Kara; Guille, Constance; Sen, Srijan

2014-01-01

Background For diagnostic purposes, the nine symptoms that compose the DSM-5 criteria for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) are assumed to be interchangeable indicators of one underlying disorder, implying that they should all have similar risk factors. The present study investigates this hypothesis, utilizing a population cohort that shifts from low to elevated depression levels. Methods We assessed the nine DSM-5 MDD criterion symptoms and seven depression risk factors (personal and family MDD history, sex, childhood stress, neuroticism, work hours, and stressful life events) in a longitudinal study of medical interns prior to and throughout internship (n=1289). We tested if risk factors varied across symptoms, and whether a latent disease model could account for heterogeneity between symptoms. Results All MDD symptoms increased significantly during residency training. Four risk factors predicted increases in unique subsets of PHQ-9 symptoms over time (depression history, childhood stress, sex, and stressful life events), while neuroticism and work hours predicted increases in all symptoms, albeit to varying magnitudes. MDD family history did not predict increases in any symptom. The strong heterogeneity of associations persisted after controlling for a latent depression factor. Conclusions The influence of risk factors varies substantially across DSM depression criterion symptoms. Since symptoms are etiologically heterogeneous, considering individual symptoms in addition to depression diagnosis might offer important insights obfuscated by symptom sum-scores. PMID:24289852

Cancer incidence of workers in the Swedish petroleum industry.

PubMed Central

Järvholm, B; Mellblom, B; Norrman, R; Nilsson, R; Nordlinder, R

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the risk of cancer due to occupational exposure to petroleum products in the Swedish transport and refinery industries. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study the cancer incidence in 4128 men and 191 women, who had worked for at least one year in the petroleum industry, was compared with the incidence in the general population. The job titles and employment times for each person were found in personal files in the industries. The men had on average worked in jobs exposed to petroleum for 11.6 years at the end of the observation period. The cases of cancer were identified by record linkage with the Swedish cancer register. RESULTS: In total there were 146 cases of cancer v 157.6 expected (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) 0.93 90% confidence interval (90% CI) 0.80 to 1.1). Operators at refineries had an increased risk of leukaemia (6 cases v 1.7 expected, 90% CI of relative risk (RR) 1.5 to 7.0). Five of the six cases had started to work at the refineries in the 1950s or later. No other significantly increased risk of cancer was found. Distribution workers had a decreased incidence of lung cancer (no cases, 90% CI of RR 0 to 0.4). CONCLUSIONS: Operators at Swedish refineries had an increased risk of leukaemia. A possible cause is exposure to benzene. There was no increased risk of leukaemia in distribution workers. Distribution workers had a decreased risk of lung cancer. PMID:9423584

Cardiovascular Outcomes after a Respiratory Tract Infection among Adults with Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis: A General Population-based Study.

PubMed

Navaratnam, Vidya; Root, Adrian A; Douglas, Ian; Smeeth, Liam; Hubbard, Richard B; Quint, Jennifer K

2018-03-01

Studies suggest that adults with bronchiectasis are at increased risk of cardiovascular comorbidities. We aimed to quantify the relative risk of incident cardiovascular events after a respiratory tract infection among adults with bronchiectasis. Using UK electronic primary care records, we conducted a within-person comparison using the self-controlled case series method. We calculated the relative risk of first-time cardiovascular events (either first myocardial infarction or stroke) after a respiratory tract infection compared with the individual's baseline risk. Our cohort consisted of 895 adult men and women with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis with a first myocardial infarction or stroke and at least one respiratory tract infection. There was an increased rate of first-time cardiovascular events in the 91-day period after a respiratory tract infection (incidence rate ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-2.02). The rate of a first cardiovascular event was highest in the first 3 days after a respiratory tract infection (incidence rate ratio, 2.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.41-5.27). These data suggest that respiratory tract infections are strongly associated with a transient increased risk of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke among people with bronchiectasis. As respiratory tract infections are six times more common in people with bronchiectasis than the general population, the increased risk has a disproportionately greater impact in these individuals. These findings may have implications for including cardiovascular risk modifications in airway infection treatment pathways in this population.

The societal benefits of reducing six behavioural risk factors: an economic modelling study from Australia

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A large proportion of disease burden is attributed to behavioural risk factors. However, funding for public health programs in Australia remains limited. Government and non-government organisations are interested in the productivity effects on society from reducing chronic diseases. We aimed to estimate the potential health status and economic benefits to society following a feasible reduction in the prevalence of six behavioural risk factors: tobacco smoking; inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption; high risk alcohol consumption; high body mass index; physical inactivity; and intimate partner violence. Methods Simulation models were developed for the 2008 Australian population. A realistic reduction in current risk factor prevalence using best available evidence with expert consensus was determined. Avoidable disease, deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and health sector costs were estimated. Productivity gains included workforce (friction cost method), household production and leisure time. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and correction for the joint effects of risk factors on health status were undertaken. Consistent methods and data sources were used. Results Over the lifetime of the 2008 Australian adult population, total opportunity cost savings of AUD2,334 million (95% Uncertainty Interval AUD1,395 to AUD3,347; 64% in the health sector) were found if feasible reductions in the risk factors were achieved. There would be 95,000 fewer DALYs (a reduction of about 3.6% in total DALYs for Australia); 161,000 less new cases of disease; 6,000 fewer deaths; a reduction of 5 million days in workforce absenteeism; and 529,000 increased days of leisure time. Conclusions Reductions in common behavioural risk factors may provide substantial benefits to society. For example, the total potential annual cost savings in the health sector represent approximately 2% of total annual health expenditure in Australia. Our findings contribute important new knowledge about productivity effects, including the potential for increased household and leisure activities, associated with chronic disease prevention. The selection of targets for risk factor prevalence reduction is an important policy decision and a useful approach for future analyses. Similar approaches could be applied in other countries if the data are available. PMID:21689461

Seeking Clearer Recommendations for Hand Hygiene in Communities Facing Ebola: A Randomized Trial Investigating the Impact of Six Handwashing Methods on Skin Irritation and Dermatitis.

PubMed

Wolfe, Marlene K; Wells, Emma; Mitro, Brittany; Desmarais, Anne Marie; Scheinman, Pamela; Lantagne, Daniele

2016-01-01

To prevent disease transmission, 0.05% chlorine solution is commonly recommended for handwashing in Ebola Treatment Units. In the 2014 West Africa outbreak this recommendation was widely extended to community settings, although many organizations recommend soap and hand sanitizer over chlorine. To evaluate skin irritation caused by frequent handwashing that may increase transmission risk in Ebola-affected communities, we conducted a randomized trial with 91 subjects who washed their hands 10 times a day for 28 days. Subjects used soap and water, sanitizer, or one of four chlorine solutions used by Ebola responders (calcium hypochlorite (HTH), sodium dichloroisocyanurate (NaDCC), and generated or pH-stabilized sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl)). Outcomes were self-reported hand feel, irritation as measured by the Hand Eczema Score Index (HECSI) (range 0-360), signs of transmission risk (e.g., cracking), and dermatitis diagnosis. All groups experienced statistically significant increases in HECSI score. Subjects using sanitizer had the smallest increases, followed by higher pH chlorine solutions (HTH and stabilized NaOCl), and soap and water. The greatest increases were among neutral pH chlorine solutions (NaDCC and generated NaOCl). Signs of irritation related to higher transmission risk were observed most frequently in subjects using soap and least frequently by those using sanitizer or HTH. Despite these irritation increases, all methods represented minor changes in HECSI score. Average HECSI score was only 9.10 at endline (range 1-33) and 4% (4/91) of subjects were diagnosed with dermatitis, one each in four groups. Each handwashing method has benefits and drawbacks: soap is widely available and inexpensive, but requires water and does not inactivate the virus; sanitizer is easy-to use and effective but expensive and unacceptable to many communities, and chlorine is easy-to-use but difficult to produce properly and distribute. Overall, we recommend Ebola responders and communities use whichever handwashing method(s) are most acceptable, available, and sustainable for community handwashing. International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Registry ISRCTN89815514.

Physiological Markers of Anxiety Are Increased in Children of Abused Mothers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jovanovic, Tanja; Smith, Ami; Kamkwalala, Asante; Poole, James; Samples, Tara; Norrholm, Seth D.; Ressler, Kerry J.; Bradley, Bekh

2011-01-01

Background: A growing number of studies indicate that low income, African American men and women living in urban environments are at high risk for trauma exposure, which may have intergenerational effects. The current study employed psychophysiological methods to describe biomarkers of anxiety in children of traumatized mothers. Methods: Study…

Increasing Treatment Seeking Among At-Risk Service Members Returning from Warzones

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

failure related to the use of fentanyl , and two died as a result of overdosing on pain medications. One of these overdoses was categorized as a... Overdosing on medications is also the most frequently reported method when asked if they have a plan for suicide. Other reported methods involve

Detecting cancer clusters in a regional population with local cluster tests and Bayesian smoothing methods: a simulation study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There is a rising public and political demand for prospective cancer cluster monitoring. But there is little empirical evidence on the performance of established cluster detection tests under conditions of small and heterogeneous sample sizes and varying spatial scales, such as are the case for most existing population-based cancer registries. Therefore this simulation study aims to evaluate different cluster detection methods, implemented in the open soure environment R, in their ability to identify clusters of lung cancer using real-life data from an epidemiological cancer registry in Germany. Methods Risk surfaces were constructed with two different spatial cluster types, representing a relative risk of RR = 2.0 or of RR = 4.0, in relation to the overall background incidence of lung cancer, separately for men and women. Lung cancer cases were sampled from this risk surface as geocodes using an inhomogeneous Poisson process. The realisations of the cancer cases were analysed within small spatial (census tracts, N = 1983) and within aggregated large spatial scales (communities, N = 78). Subsequently, they were submitted to the cluster detection methods. The test accuracy for cluster location was determined in terms of detection rates (DR), false-positive (FP) rates and positive predictive values. The Bayesian smoothing models were evaluated using ROC curves. Results With moderate risk increase (RR = 2.0), local cluster tests showed better DR (for both spatial aggregation scales > 0.90) and lower FP rates (both < 0.05) than the Bayesian smoothing methods. When the cluster RR was raised four-fold, the local cluster tests showed better DR with lower FPs only for the small spatial scale. At a large spatial scale, the Bayesian smoothing methods, especially those implementing a spatial neighbourhood, showed a substantially lower FP rate than the cluster tests. However, the risk increases at this scale were mostly diluted by data aggregation. Conclusion High resolution spatial scales seem more appropriate as data base for cancer cluster testing and monitoring than the commonly used aggregated scales. We suggest the development of a two-stage approach that combines methods with high detection rates as a first-line screening with methods of higher predictive ability at the second stage. PMID:24314148

Increased Risk of Stomach and Esophageal Malignancies in People With AIDS

PubMed Central

Persson, E. Christina; Shiels, Meredith S.; Dawsey, Sanford M.; Bhatia, Kishor; Anderson, Lesley A.; Engels, Eric A.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND & AIMS People infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have an increased risk of some malignancies, but little is known about the effects of infection on risk of cancers of the upper gastrointestinal tract. We evaluated the risks of different histologic and anatomic subtypes of carcinomas and non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHLs) of the stomach and esophagus in people with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). METHODS We analyzed data from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study, which links data collected from 1980 to 2007 for 16 US population-based HIV and AIDS and cancer registries. We compared risks of stomach and esophageal malignancies in people with AIDS (N = 596,955) with those of the general population using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). We assessed calendar trends using Poisson regression. RESULTS People with AIDS had increased risks of carcinomas of the esophagus (SIR, 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.37–2.07; n = 95) and stomach (SIR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.17–1.76; n = 96). Risk was increased for esophageal adenocarcinoma (SIR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.31–2.70) and squamous cell carcinoma (SIR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.10 –1.92). People with AIDS had greater risks of carcinomas of the gastric cardia (SIR, 1.36; 95% CI, 0.83–2.11) and noncardia (SIR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.12–2.05) than the general population. Although most stomach and esophageal NHLs that developed in people with AIDS were diffuse large B-cell lymphomas, these individuals also had an increased risk of stomach mucosa–associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma (SIR, 5.99; 95% CI, 3.19 –10.2; n = 13). The incidence of carcinomas remained fairly constant over time, but rates of NHL decreased from 1980 to 2007 (Ptrend < .0001). CONCLUSIONS People with AIDS are at increased risk for developing esophageal and stomach carcinomas and NHLs. Although the incidence of NHL decreased from 1980 to 2007 as treatments for HIV infection improved, HIV-infected individuals face continued risks of esophageal and stomach carcinomas. PMID:22796240

Cerebrovascular accidents in patients treated for choroidal neovascularization with ranibizumab in randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Bressler, Neil M; Boyer, David S; Williams, David F; Butler, Steven; Francom, Steven F; Brown, Benton; Di Nucci, Flavia; Cramm, Timothy; Tuomi, Lisa L; Ianchulev, Tsontcho; Rubio, Roman G

2012-10-01

To analyze cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) pooled from large, randomized, controlled clinical trials of ranibizumab treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration. Events in five trials (FOCUS, MARINA, ANCHOR, PIER, and SAILOR) were analyzed using a standard safety monitoring process. Exact methods, stratified by study, were used to test for treatment differences based on odds ratios. A stepwise logistic regression model was fit to classify subjects' risk for CVA based on medical history. Treatment differences in CVA rates at 1 year or 2 years were evaluated within risk groups using stratified exact methods. Pooled 2-year CVA rates were <3%; odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for CVA risk were 1.2 (0.4-4.4) for ranibizumab 0.3-mg versus control, 2.2 (0.8-7.1) for 0.5 mg versus control, and 1.5 (0.8-3.0) for 0.5-mg versus 0.3-mg ranibizumab. No substantial increased risk of CVA for 0.5 mg versus 0.3 mg was identified in pooled analyses or any of the individual trials. In pooled analyses, the difference between 0.5-mg ranibizumab and control was larger (7.7 [1.2-177]) among high-risk CVA patients. This analysis provided some evidence, although not definitive, of a potential increased risk of CVA with ranibizumab versus control or with 0.5-mg versus 0.3-mg ranibizumab. Continued monitoring for CVA within clinical trials seems warrented.

Gene-environment interaction between adiponectin gene polymorphisms and environmental factors on the risk of diabetic retinopathy.

PubMed

Li, Yuan; Wu, Qun Hong; Jiao, Ming Li; Fan, Xiao Hong; Hu, Quan; Hao, Yan Hua; Liu, Ruo Hong; Zhang, Wei; Cui, Yu; Han, Li Yuan

2015-01-01

To evaluate whether the adiponectin gene is associated with diabetic retinopathy (DR) risk and interaction with environmental factors modifies the DR risk, and to investigate the relationship between serum adiponectin levels and DR. Four adiponectin polymorphisms were evaluated in 372 DR cases and 145 controls. Differences in environmental factors between cases and controls were evaluated by unconditional logistic regression analysis. The model-free multifactor dimensionality reduction method and traditional multiple regression models were applied to explore interactions between the polymorphisms and environmental factors. Using the Bonferroni method, we found no significant associations between four adiponectin polymorphisms and DR susceptibility. Multivariate logistic regression found that physical activity played a protective role in the progress of DR, whereas family history of diabetes (odds ratio 1.75) and insulin therapy (odds ratio 1.78) were associated with an increased risk for DR. The interaction between the C-11377 G (rs266729) polymorphism and insulin therapy might be associated with DR risk. Family history of diabetes combined with insulin therapy also increased the risk of DR. No adiponectin gene polymorphisms influenced the serum adiponectin levels. Serum adiponectin levels did not differ between the DR group and non-DR group. No significant association was identified between four adiponectin polymorphisms and DR susceptibility after stringent Bonferroni correction. The interaction between C-11377G (rs266729) polymorphism and insulin therapy, as well as the interaction between family history of diabetes and insulin therapy, might be associated with DR susceptibility.

Magnetic resonance angiography: current status and future directions

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

With recent improvement in hardware and software techniques, magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) has undergone significant changes in technique and approach. The advent of 3.0 T magnets has allowed reduction in exogenous contrast dose without compromising overall image quality. The use of novel intravascular contrast agents substantially increases the image windows and decreases contrast dose. Additionally, the lower risk and cost in non-contrast enhanced (NCE) MRA has sparked renewed interest in these methods. This article discusses the current state of both contrast-enhanced (CE) and NCE-MRA. New CE-MRA methods take advantage of dose reduction at 3.0 T, novel contrast agents, and parallel imaging methods. The risks of gadolinium-based contrast media, and the NCE-MRA methods of time-of-flight, steady-state free precession, and phase contrast are discussed. PMID:21388544

Diabetic status and the relation of the three domains of glycemic control to mortality in critically ill patients: an international multicenter cohort study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and increased glycemic variability have each been independently associated with increased risk of mortality in critically ill patients. The role of diabetic status on modulating the relation of these three domains of glycemic control with mortality remains uncertain. The purpose of this investigation was to determine how diabetic status affects the relation of hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and increased glycemic variability with the risk of mortality in critically ill patients. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data involving 44,964 patients admitted to 23 intensive care units (ICUs) from nine countries, between February 2001 and May 2012. We analyzed mean blood glucose concentration (BG), coefficient of variation (CV), and minimal BG and created multivariable models to analyze their independent association with mortality. Patients were stratified according to the diagnosis of diabetes. Results Among patients without diabetes, mean BG bands between 80 and 140 mg/dl were independently associated with decreased risk of mortality, and mean BG bands >140 mg/dl, with increased risk of mortality. Among patients with diabetes, mean BG from 80 to 110 mg/dl was associated with increased risk of mortality and mean BG from 110 to 180 mg/dl with decreased risk of mortality. An effect of center was noted on the relation between mean BG and mortality. Hypoglycemia, defined as minimum BG <70 mg/dl, was independently associated with increased risk of mortality among patients with and without diabetes and increased glycemic variability, defined as CV >20%, was independently associated with increased risk of mortality only among patients without diabetes. Derangements of more than one domain of glycemic control had a cumulative association with mortality, especially for patients without diabetes. Conclusions Although hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia, and increased glycemic variability is each independently associated with mortality in critically ill patients, diabetic status modulates these relations in clinically important ways. Our findings suggest that patients with diabetes may benefit from higher glucose target ranges than will those without diabetes. Additionally, hypoglycemia is independently associated with increased risk of mortality regardless of the patient's diabetic status, and increased glycemic variability is independently associated with increased risk of mortality among patients without diabetes. See related commentary by Krinsley, http://ccforum.com/content/17/2/131 See related commentary by Finfer and Billot, http://ccforum.com/content/17/2/134 PMID:23452622

Communicating risks and benefits about ethically controversial topics: the case of induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells.

PubMed

Longstaff, Holly; McDonald, Michael; Bailey, Jennifer

2013-08-01

Many are supportive of approaches that incorporate lay citizens into policy making and risk management decisions. However, a great deal of learning must first take place about how citizen engagement for controversial topics is best accomplished. Online risk communication efforts are increasing in popularity but there is little empirical evidence accrued to demonstrate the effectiveness of such methods. The intention of our overall study is to create a powerful method for in-depth two-way communication with the public and expert communities about complex and sensitive issues at the heart of stem cell (SC) research. The fundamental objective is to raise awareness of SC science with lay citizens by fostering more holistic or "all things considered" ethical judgments. Our risk communication study demonstrates that lay citizens are both interested in, and capable of learning about, complex scientific issues provided the right tools are used to convey information and assess understanding. Our results show that it is worth the time and effort for SC researchers to continue posting podcasts and FAQ's about their work for non-expert communities to view. In addition, despite having increased our participants' risk perceptions about induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cell research, almost all were very supportive of this type of research in Canada by the end of the survey. In other words, participants understood that this research did in fact pose some risks and learned a great deal about both the risks and benefits of iPS cell research, and still thought this research was worthwhile to pursue.

Macrosomic Neonates Carry Increased Risk of Dental Caries in Early Childhood: Findings from a Cohort Study, the Okinawa Child Health Study, Japan

PubMed Central

Yokomichi, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Taichiro; Suzuki, Kohta; Akiyama, Tomoki; Yamagata, Zentaro

2015-01-01

Background Although many studies have discussed health risks in neonates with a low birth weight, few studies have focused on the risks in neonates with a high birth weight. The objective of this study was to determine whether differences in the incidence of dental caries in early childhood are associated with birth weight status. Methods A total of 117,175 children born in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan from 1997 to 2007 were included in this study. Medical professionals collected information about birth records, growth and development, parental child-rearing practices and dental health at 3 months, 18 months and 3 years of age. The risk of dental caries among neonates with macrosomia (birth weight ≥4000 g) was compared with that among neonates with normal weight (2500–3999 g). Sensitivity analyses included ‘large for gestational age’ (LGA, birth weight above the 90th percentile for gestational age), which was relative to ‘appropriate for gestational age’ (birth weight between 10th and 90th percentiles). Relative risks and relative risk increases were estimated by multivariate Poisson regression. Results At 3 years of age, the relative risk increases for dental caries after adjusting for confounding factors were 19% [95% confidence interval (CI), 11%–28%, P < 0.001] for macrosomic neonates and 12% (95% CI, 9%–16%, P < 0.001) for LGA neonates. Conclusion Macrosomia and LGA were associated with an increased risk of dental caries in early childhood. Particular attention should be paid to abnormally large neonates. PMID:26207737

A Population-Based Study of Subsequent Primary Malignancies After Endometrial Cancer: Genetic, Environmental, and Treatment-Related Associations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Aaron P.; Neeley, E. Shannon; Werner, Theresa

2010-09-01

Purpose: To examine the risk of subsequent primary malignancies (SPMs) in women diagnosed with endometrial cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Institute's Survival, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to determine the risk of SPM after endometrial cancer in 69,739 women diagnosed between 1973 and 2005. Standardized incidence ratios were calculated (observed/expected [O/E]) for SPM sites. Results: Median follow-up was 11.2 years, representing 757,567 person-years of follow-up. The risk of SPM was significantly increased for small intestine (O/E = 1.48; 99% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-2.05), colon (O/E = 1.16; CI, 1.09-1.24), vagina (O/E = 2.71; CI, 1.86-3.8), andmore » urinary bladder (O/E = 1.41; CI, 1.25-1.59) SPMs and decreased for oral cavity and pharynx (O/E = 0.75; CI, 0.6-0.93), lung and bronchus (O/E = 0.78; CI, 0.72-0.84), and esophagus (O/E = 0.58; CI, 0.37-0.86) SPMs. Patients receiving external-beam radiotherapy for endometrial cancer had an increased risk of colon (p < 0.001), bladder (p < 0.001), vagina (p = 0.04), and soft-tissue (p = 0.014) SPMs. Patients treated with brachytherapy had an increased risk of bladder SPM (p = 0.006). A positive bidirectional association with endometrial cancer was observed for colorectal cancer, with a negative bidirectional association for oropharyngeal and lung cancers. Conclusions: Genetic, environmental, and treatment-related factors influence SPM risk. Genetic factors may contribute to the increased risk of colorectal cancer. Smoking's negative effect on endometrial cancer risk factors might explain the decreased risk of lung and oropharyngeal cancer. Patients treated with radiotherapy likely have a small but significantly increased risk of bladder, vagina, colon, and soft-tissue SPM.« less

ECG Changes in Young Healthy Smokers: A Simple and Cost-Effective Method to Assess Cardiovascular Risk According to Pack-Years of Smoking.

PubMed

Sharma, Nirmal Kumar; Jaiswal, Kapil Kumar; Meena, S R; Chandel, Rahul; Chittora, Saurabh; Goga, Prem Singh; Harish, H B; Sagar, Rajesh

2017-06-01

To document the prevalence of ECG abnormalities in young healthy smokers and compare ECG changes in smokers, young healthy non-smokers and amongst smokers with different pack years. This was a prospective case-control study consisting of 200 young healthy male and female individuals, 150 smokers and 50 non-smokers between ages 25-40 years, further categorized and compared according to age, sex and pack years of smoking. The ECG recordings were analyzed for different ECG parameters like heart rate, P-wave duration, P-wave amplitude, PR interval, QRS duration, RR-interval, ST-segment duration, QT interval and QTc interval. The results were compared using statistical tools. In present study abnormalities in ECG parameters were significantly more prevalent in smokers as compared to non-smokers (56.66 % Vs 6.00 %) (p <.0001). Heart rate and QTc-interval increased with increase in the number of pack-years. This increase was reflected more in female with a similar number of pack years. P-wave amplitude tended to increase with increase in the number of pack years more so in males. P-wave duration, PR-interval, QRS-duration and RR-interval tended to decrease with increase in the number of pack years more so in females with similar number of pack years. QT-interval and ST-segment duration tended to decrease with increase in the number of pack years more so in males. ECG abnormalities in this study indicate cardiovascular risk in term of cardiac arrhythmia, pulmonary arterial hypertension, heart blocks etc in such subjects. As this procedure is non-invasive and cost effective it is potentially an effective and yet a simple method for cardiovascular risk evaluation in smokers. Furthermore, such ECG abnormalities may guide the clinician for risk evaluation in smokers and may be used to convince the smokers to quit smoking.

Effects of acute administration of nicotine, amphetamine, diazepam, morphine, and ethanol on risky decision-making in rats

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Marci R.; Vokes, Colin M.; Blankenship, Amy L.; Simon, Nicholas W.

2011-01-01

Rationale Most individuals can accurately assess the risks and rewards associated with choice alternatives and decide accordingly; however, drug users often display maladaptive decision-making, such that choices are biased toward excessively risky options. Objective The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a range of drugs of abuse on risky decision-making. Methods Male Long–Evans rats were trained in the Risky Decision-Making Task, in which they chose between two levers, one which produced a small, “safe” food reward and the other which produced a large, “risky” food reward. The large reward was accompanied by the risk of a mild footshock, the probability of which increased over the course of each test session (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%). Results Nicotine (0.6 mg/kg) and amphetamine (1.5 mg/kg) caused a significant decrease in choice of the large risky reward (decreased risk taking). Diazepam (1.0 mg/kg) caused a significant increase in choice of the large risky reward (increased risk taking), whereas morphine (3.0 mg/kg) caused only a trend toward increased choice of the large risky reward. Ethanol had no effect on choice behavior. Conclusions These results show that acute administration of drugs of abuse can modulate risk taking in a drug-specific manner, either increasing or decreasing preference for highly rewarding, but risky, options. PMID:21638222

Improving risk prediction accuracy for new soldiers in the U.S. Army by adding self-report survey data to administrative data.

PubMed

Bernecker, Samantha L; Rosellini, Anthony J; Nock, Matthew K; Chiu, Wai Tat; Gutierrez, Peter M; Hwang, Irving; Joiner, Thomas E; Naifeh, James A; Sampson, Nancy A; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Kessler, Ronald C

2018-04-03

High rates of mental disorders, suicidality, and interpersonal violence early in the military career have raised interest in implementing preventive interventions with high-risk new enlistees. The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) developed risk-targeting systems for these outcomes based on machine learning methods using administrative data predictors. However, administrative data omit many risk factors, raising the question whether risk targeting could be improved by adding self-report survey data to prediction models. If so, the Army may gain from routinely administering surveys that assess additional risk factors. The STARRS New Soldier Survey was administered to 21,790 Regular Army soldiers who agreed to have survey data linked to administrative records. As reported previously, machine learning models using administrative data as predictors found that small proportions of high-risk soldiers accounted for high proportions of negative outcomes. Other machine learning models using self-report survey data as predictors were developed previously for three of these outcomes: major physical violence and sexual violence perpetration among men and sexual violence victimization among women. Here we examined the extent to which this survey information increases prediction accuracy, over models based solely on administrative data, for those three outcomes. We used discrete-time survival analysis to estimate a series of models predicting first occurrence, assessing how model fit improved and concentration of risk increased when adding the predicted risk score based on survey data to the predicted risk score based on administrative data. The addition of survey data improved prediction significantly for all outcomes. In the most extreme case, the percentage of reported sexual violence victimization among the 5% of female soldiers with highest predicted risk increased from 17.5% using only administrative predictors to 29.4% adding survey predictors, a 67.9% proportional increase in prediction accuracy. Other proportional increases in concentration of risk ranged from 4.8% to 49.5% (median = 26.0%). Data from an ongoing New Soldier Survey could substantially improve accuracy of risk models compared to models based exclusively on administrative predictors. Depending upon the characteristics of interventions used, the increase in targeting accuracy from survey data might offset survey administration costs.

Premature Ventricular Complexes on Screening Electrocardiogram and Risk of Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Agarwal, Sunil K.; Chao, Jennifer; Peace, Frederick; Judd, Suzanne E.; Kissela, Brett; Kleindorfer, Dawn; Howard, Virginia J.; Howard, George; Soliman, Elsayed Z.

2015-01-01

Background and Purpose Premature ventricular complexes (PVCs) detected from long-term electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings have been associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. Whether PVCs seen on routine ECG, commonly used in clinical practice, are associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke remains unstudied. Methods This analysis included 24,460 participants (age 64.5+9.3 years, 55.1% Female, 40.0% African Americans) from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study who were free of stroke at the time of enrollment. PVCs were ascertained from baseline ECG (2003-2007), and incident stroke cases through 2011 were confirmed by an adjudication committee. Results A total of 1,415 (5.8%) participants had at least one PVC at baseline, and 591 developed incident ischemic stroke during an average (SD) follow-up of 6.0 (2.0) years. In a Cox Proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, race, geographic region, education, prior heart disease, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure lowering medications, current smoking, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy by ECG, aspirin use and warfarin use, presence of PVCs was associated with 38% increased risk of ischemic stroke (HR (95% CI): 1.38 (1.05, 1.81)). Conclusions PVCs are common on routine screening ECGs, and are associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. PMID:25873602

Tea, Coffee, and Milk Consumption and Colorectal Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

Green, Chadwick John; de Dauwe, Palina; Boyle, Terry; Tabatabaei, Seyed Mehdi; Fritschi, Lin; Heyworth, Jane Shirley

2014-01-01

Background Data regarding the effects of tea, coffee, and milk on the risk of colorectal cancer are inconsistent. We investigated associations of tea, coffee, and milk consumption with colorectal cancer risk and attempted to determine if these exposures were differentially associated with the risks of proximal colon, distal colon, and rectal cancers. Methods Data from 854 incident cases and 948 controls were analyzed in a case-control study of colorectal cancer in Western Australia during 2005–07. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the associations of black tea (with and without milk), green tea, herbal tea, hot coffee, iced coffee, and milk with colorectal cancer. Results Consumption of 1 or more cups of herbal tea per week was associated with a significantly decreased risk of distal colon cancer (adjusted odds ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.16–0.82; PTrend = 0.044), and consumption of 1 or more cups of iced coffee per week was associated with increased risk of rectal cancer (adjusted odds ratio, 1.52; 95% CI, 0.91–2.54; PTrend = 0.004). Neither herbal tea nor iced coffee was associated with the risk of proximal colon cancer. Hot coffee was associated with a possible increased risk of distal colon cancer. Black tea (with or without milk), green tea, decaffeinated coffee, and milk were not significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk. Conclusions Consumption of herbal tea was associated with reduced risk of distal colon cancer, and consumption of iced coffee was associated with increased rectal cancer risk. PMID:24531002

Family risk and related education and counseling needs: perceptions of adults with bipolar disorder and siblings of adults with bipolar disorder.

PubMed

Peay, H L; Hooker, G W; Kassem, L; Biesecker, B B

2009-03-01

Genetics and mental health professionals increasingly provide education and counseling related to risk for psychiatric illness, but there is insufficient evidence about patient perceptions and needs to guide such interventions. Affected individuals and relatives may perceive increased family risk and have interest in genetic education and counseling. Our objectives were to explore perceptions of family vulnerability, perceived control, and coping strategies related to familial risk and needs from genetic counseling. Our methods included conducting semi-structured interviews (n = 48) with individuals with bipolar disorder (BPD) and unaffected siblings. Content analysis generated descriptive data that provide guidance for clinical interventions and themes to evaluate in future studies. The results showed that participants perceived increased personal and family risk, attributing BPD to genes and family environment. Causal attributions were often uncertain and at times inconsistent. Participants wished to modify psychiatric risk to relatives, but were uncertain how to do so; despite the uncertainty, most parents reported risk-modification efforts. Efforts to cope with family vulnerability included monitoring and cognitive distancing. Participants endorsed the usefulness of education and psychological support, but described more ambivalence about receiving risk assessment. Educational and supportive interventions around family risk for BPD should focus on perceptions of cause and vulnerability, reproductive decision-making, and early intervention and risk modification in young relatives. Psychological support is an important component. Providers should evaluate patient coping strategies, which could facilitate or hinder genetic counseling interventions, and should not assume interest in quantitative risk assessment. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Quality of Parent Communication about Sex and Its Relationship to Risky Sexual Behavior among Youth in Psychiatric Care: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Helen W.; Donenberg, Geri

2004-01-01

Background: The number of HIV infections among adolescents is increasing, and youth in psychiatric care are at particular risk because of their high rates of risky sexual behavior. Methods: As part of a larger longitudinal study examining AIDS-risk behavior among adolescents in psychiatric care, this pilot study investigated the relationship…

One-Year Incidence of Psychiatric Disorders and Associated Risk Factors among Adolescents in the Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Robert E.; Roberts, Catherine R.; Chan, Wenyaw

2009-01-01

Background: We have few data on incidence of psychiatric disorders among adolescents. This study examined first incidence of disorders among adolescents and baseline factors which increased or decreased risk of new onset cases a year later. Methods: Data were analyzed from Teen Health 2000 (TH2K), a probability sample of 4,175 youths 11-17 and…