Low-flow characteristics and profiles for the Deep River in the Cape Fear River basin, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, J.C.

1997-01-01

Drainage area and low-flow discharge profiles are presented for the Deep River. The drainage-area profile shows downstream increases in basin size. At the mouth, the drainage area for the Deep River is 1,441 square miles. Low-flow discharge profiles for the Deep River include 7Q10, 30Q2, W7Q10, and 7Q2 discharges in a continuous profile with contributions from major tributaries included.

Flow characteristics and salinity patterns of tidal rivers within the northern Ten Thousand Islands, southwest Florida, water years 2007–14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booth, Amanda C.; Soderqvist, Lars E.

2016-12-12

Freshwater flow to the Ten Thousand Islands estuary has been altered by the construction of the Tamiami Trail and the Southern Golden Gate Estates. The Picayune Strand Restoration Project, which is associated with the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan, has been implemented to improve freshwater delivery to the Ten Thousand Islands estuary by removing hundreds of miles of roads, emplacing hundreds of canal plugs, removing exotic vegetation, and constructing three pump stations. Quantifying the tributary flows and salinity patterns prior to, during, and after the restoration is essential to assessing the effectiveness of upstream restoration efforts.Tributary flow and salinity patterns during preliminary restoration efforts and prior to the installation of pump stations were analyzed to provide baseline data and preliminary analysis of changes due to restoration efforts. The study assessed streamflow and salinity data for water years1 2007–2014 for the Faka Union River (canal flow included), East River, Little Wood River, Pumpkin River, and Blackwater River. Salinity data from the Palm River and Faka Union Boundary water-quality stations were also assessed.Faka Union River was the dominant contributor of freshwater during water years 2007–14 to the Ten Thousand Islands estuary, followed by Little Wood and East Rivers. Pumpkin River and Blackwater River were the least substantial contributors of freshwater flow. The lowest annual flow volumes, the highest annual mean salinities, and the highest percentage of salinity values greater than 35 parts per thousand (ppt) occurred in water year 2011 at all sites with available data, corresponding with the lowest annual rainfall during the study. The highest annual flow volumes and the lowest percentage of salinities greater than 35 ppt occurred in water year 2013 for all sites with available data, corresponding with the highest rainfall during the study.In water year 2014, the percentage of monitored annual flow contributed by East River increased and the percentage of flow contributed by Faka Union River decreased, compared to the earlier years. No changes in annual flow occurred at any sites west of Faka Union River. No changes in the relative flow contributions were observed during the wet season; however, the relative amounts of streamflow increased during the dry season at East River in 2014. East River had only 1 month of negative flow in 2014 compared to 6 months in 2011 and 7 months in 2008. Higher dry season flows in East River may be in response to restoration efforts. The sites to the west of Faka Union River had higher salinities on average than Faka Union River and East River. Faka Union River had the highest range in salinities, and Faka Union Boundary had the lowest range in salinities. Pumpkin River was the tributary with the lowest range in salinities.1Water year is defined as the 12-month period from October 1, for any given year, through September 30 of the following year.

Modelling impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Meghna, Hooghly and Mahanadi river systems in India and Bangladesh.

PubMed

Whitehead, Paul G; Jin, Li; Macadam, Ian; Janes, Tamara; Sarkar, Sananda; Rodda, Harvey J E; Sinha, Rajiv; Nicholls, Robert J

2018-09-15

The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River System, the associated Hooghly River and the Mahanadi River System represent the largest river basins in the world serving a population of over 780 million. The rivers are of vital concern to India and Bangladesh as they provide fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, conservation and support the Delta System in the Bay of Bengal. Future changes in both climate and socio-economics have been investigated to assess whether these will alter river flows and water quality. Climate datasets downscaled from three different Global Climate Models have been used to drive a daily process based flow and water quality model. The results suggest that due to climate change the flows will increase in the monsoon period and also be enhanced in the dry season. However, once socio-economic changes are also considered, increased population, irrigation, water use and industrial development reduce water availability in drought conditions, threatening water supplies and posing a threat to river and coastal ecosystems. This study, as part of the DECCMA (Deltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation) project, also addresses water quality issues, particularly nutrients (N and P) and their transport along the rivers and discharge into the Delta System. Climate will alter flows, increasing flood flows and changing pollution dilution factors in the rivers, as well as other key processes controlling water quality. Socio-economic change will affect water quality, as water diversion strategies, increased population and industrial development alter the water balance and enhance fluxes of nutrients from agriculture, urban centers and atmospheric deposition. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projected Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Regimes in the Philippines

PubMed Central

Kanamaru, Hideki; Keesstra, Saskia; Maroulis, Jerry; David, Carlos Primo C.; Ritsema, Coen J.

2016-01-01

The Philippines is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. To fully understand these potential impacts, especially on future hydrological regimes and water resources (2010-2050), 24 river basins located in the major agricultural provinces throughout the Philippines were assessed. Calibrated using existing historical interpolated climate data, the STREAM model was used to assess future river flows derived from three global climate models (BCM2, CNCM3 and MPEH5) under two plausible scenarios (A1B and A2) and then compared with baseline scenarios (20th century). Results predict a general increase in water availability for most parts of the country. For the A1B scenario, CNCM3 and MPEH5 models predict an overall increase in river flows and river flow variability for most basins, with higher flow magnitudes and flow variability, while an increase in peak flow return periods is predicted for the middle and southern parts of the country during the wet season. However, in the north, the prognosis is for an increase in peak flow return periods for both wet and dry seasons. These findings suggest a general increase in water availability for agriculture, however, there is also the increased threat of flooding and enhanced soil erosion throughout the country. PMID:27749908

Sources of solutes to the proglacial Watson River (Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua) near Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deuerling, K. M.; Martin, J. B.; Martin, E. E.; Scribner, C. A.

2013-12-01

Chemical weathering of silicate rocks in glacial forelands is a potential sink for atmospheric CO2 and therefore may impact long-term climate variability. Physical weathering in glacial environments enhances the rate of chemical weathering, particularly through subglacial production of rock flour with a high surface area to volume ratio. This reactive material is transported to and chemically weathered within the proglacial system, increasing concentrations of solutes as water flows downstream. Water from proglacial rivers may also acquire solutes and draw down atmospheric CO2 through reactions driven by hyporheic zone (HZ) exchange in the broad, braided reaches of the river channel. However, few studies have addressed this process and none to date have directly examined porewater contributions. We address these questions in the Watson River/Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua (WR), which flows approximately 40 km from its headwaters, through the town of Kangerlussuaq, and into Søndre Strømfjord. We have collected river water samples five times from six sites over the 2012 and 2013 summer melt seasons and three transects of PW from sand flats located along the river. Specific conductivity (SpC), pH, and dissolved ion concentrations increase downstream, consistent with ongoing chemical weathering reactions along the flow path. Relative abundances of Na+, K+, and SiO2 increase downstream relative to Ca2+ and Mg2+ concentrations. These signals indicate preferential dissolution of biotite and/or alkali feldspar. Additionally, 206Pb/204Pb ratios become more nonradiogenic downstream, lending further evidence to dissolution of readily weathered minerals. Over the course of the melt season, SpC, pH, and dissolved ion concentrations decrease, consistent with the increase in discharge due to supraglacial melting. The greatest downstream SpC increase (~2x) occurs where the river exits largely bedrock channeled flow and enters the braided portion at the Sandflugtdalen. In general, PW samples in the sand flats indicate weathering reactions occur near the river channel and the influence of evaporation becomes more important at distal sites. Porewater SpC increases by 4 times over river water values 20 cm below the water table at the sample sites 3.5 and 7 m from the river and then increases more than an order of magnitude at 70 cm below the water table. Sites 11 m from the river channel display SpC profiles that are elevated above the river values at shallow depths and then decrease with depth, likely reflecting evaporation at shallow depths. These trends may also reflect chemical weathering of sediments in the HZ. For the solutes in the HZ to have an effect on the composition of the WR, they must exchange with the river. This process could occur through diel fluctuations in the river stage resulting from extensive ice melt during the day. Near peak river flow, the estimated head gradient was 0.4 cm/m from the river to the bank. Pressure data from CTD sensors installed in the HZ indicate a diel signal similar to the river, though muted. These findings suggest that dilute river water enters the HZ at high flow and drains at low flow, thereby providing solutes to the river.

Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie

Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of themore » inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.« less

Potential effects of anticipated coal mining on salinity of the Price, San Rafael, and Green Rivers, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindskov, K.L.

1986-01-01

The impact of anticipated coal mining in Utah on the salinity of the Price, San Rafael, and Green Rivers is to be addressed in the repermitting of existing mines and permitting of new mines. To determine the potential impacts, mathematical models were developed for the Price and San Rafael River basins. Little impact on the quantity and quality of streamflow is expected for the Price and San Rafael Rivers. The increase in mean monthly flow of the Price River downstream from Scofield Reservoir is projected as 3.5 cu ft/sec, ranging from 1.7% in June to 140% in February. The potential increase in dissolved solids concentration downstream from Scofield Reservoir would range from 10.4% in June and July (from 202 to 223 mg/L) to 97.0% in February (from 202 to 398 mg/L). However, the concentration of the mixture of mine water with the existing flow released from Scofield Reservoir would contain less than 500 mg/L of dissolved solids. At the mouth of the Price River, the potential increase in mean monthly flow is projected as 12.6 cu ft/sec, ranging from 3.7% in May to 37.7% in January. The potential changes in dissolved solids concentration would range from a 20.7% decrease in January (from 3,677 to 2,917 mg/L) to a 1.3% increase in June (from 1,911 to 1,935 mg/L). At the mouth of the San Rafael River , the potential increase in mean monthly flow ranges from 2.9 cu ft/sec in February to 6.7 cu ft/sec in May, with the increase ranging from 0.8% in June to 12.6% in November. The potential changes in dissolved solids concentration would range from a 5.3 % decrease in March (from 2,318 to 2,195 mg/L) to a 0.6% increase in May (from 1,649 to 1,659 mg/L). The anticipated mining in the Price and San Rafael River basins is not expected to cause a detectable change in the quantity and quality of streamflow in the Green River. The projected peak increase in flow resulting from discharge from the mines is less than 0.3% of the average flow in the Green River. (Author 's abstract)

Effect of human activities on overall trend of sedimentation in the lower Yellow River, China.

PubMed

Jiongxin, Xu

2004-05-01

The Yellow River has been intensively affected by human activities, particularly in the past 50 years, including soil-water conservation in the upper and middle drainage basin, flood protection in the lower reaches, and flow regulation and water diversion in the whole drainage basin. All these changes may impact sedimentation process of the lower Yellow River in different ways. Assessing these impacts comprehensively is important for more effective environmental management of the drainage basin. Based on the data of annual river flow, sediment load, and channel sedimentation in the lower Yellow River between 1950 and 1997, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the overall trend of channel sedimentation rate at a time scale of 50 years, and its formative cause. It was found in this study that erosion control measures and water diversion have counteractive impacts on sedimentation rate in the lower Yellow River. Although both annual river flow and sediment decreased, there was no change in channel sedimentation rate. A regression analysis indicated that the sedimentation in the lower Yellow River decreased with the sediment input to the lower Yellow River but increased with the river flow input. In the past 30-40 years, the basin-wide practice of erosion and sediment control measures resulted in a decline in sediment supply to the Yellow River; at the same time, the human development of water resources that required river flow regulation and water diversion caused great reduction in river flow. The former may reduce the sedimentation in the lower Yellow River, but the reduction of river flow increased the sedimentation. When their effects counterbalanced each other, the overall trend of channel sedimentation in the lower Yellow River remained unchanged. This fact may help us to better understand the positive and negative effects of human activities in the Yellow River basin and to pay more attention to the negative effect of the development of water resources. The results of this study demonstrate that, if the overuse of river water cannot be controlled, the reduction of channel sedimentation in the lower Yellow River cannot be realized through the practice of erosion and sediment control measures.

Effects of the proposed California WaterFix North Delta Diversion on flow reversals and entrainment of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) into Georgiana Slough and the Delta Cross Channel, northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Romine, Jason G.; Pope, Adam C.; Evans, Scott D.

2018-02-27

The California Department of Water Resources and Bureau of Reclamation propose new water intake facilities on the Sacramento River in northern California that would convey some of the water for export to areas south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereinafter referred to as the Delta) through tunnels rather than through the Delta. The collection of water intakes, tunnels, pumping facilities, associated structures, and proposed operations are collectively referred to as California WaterFix. The water intake facilities, hereinafter referred to as the North Delta Diversion (NDD), are proposed to be located on the Sacramento River downstream of the city of Sacramento and upstream of the first major river junction where Sutter Slough branches from the Sacramento River. The NDD can divert a maximum discharge of 9,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) from the Sacramento River, which reduces the amount of Sacramento River inflow into the Delta.In this report, we conducted three analyses to investigate the effect of the NDD and its proposed operation on entrainment of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) into Georgiana Slough and the Delta Cross Channel (DCC). Fish that enter the interior Delta (the network of channels to the south of the Sacramento River) through Georgiana Slough and the DCC survive at lower rates than fish that use other migration routes (Sacramento River, Sutter Slough, and Steamboat Slough). Therefore, fisheries managers were concerned about the extent to which operation of the NDD would increase the proportion of the population entering the interior Delta, which, all else being equal, would lower overall survival through the Delta by increasing the fraction of the population subject to lower survival rates. Operation of the NDD would reduce flow in the Sacramento River, which has the potential to increase the magnitude and duration of reverse flows of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough.In the first analysis, we evaluate the effect of the NDD bypass rules on flow reversals of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough. The NDD bypass rules are a set of operational criteria designed to minimize upstream transport of fish into Georgiana Slough and the DCC, and were developed based on previous studies showing that the magnitude and duration of flow reversals increase the proportion of fish entering Georgiana Slough and the DCC. We estimated the frequency and duration of reverse-flow conditions of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough under each of the prescribed minimum bypass flows described in the NDD bypass rules. To accommodate adaptive levels of protection during different times of year when juvenile salmon are migrating through the Delta, the NDD bypass rules prescribe a series of minimum allowable bypass flows that vary depending on (1) month of the year, and (2) progressively decreasing levels of protection following a pulse flow event.We determined that the NDD bypass rules increased the frequency and duration of reverse flows of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough, with the magnitude of increase varying among scenarios. Constant low-level pumping, the most protective bypass rule that limits diversion to 10 percent of the maximum diversion and is implemented following a pulse-flow event, led to the smallest increase in frequency and duration of flow reversals. In contrast, we found that some scenarios led to sizeable increases in the fraction of the day with reverse flow. The conditions under which the proportion of the day with reverse flow can increase by greater than or equal to 10 percentage points between October and June, when juvenile salmon are present in the Delta, include October–November bypass rules and level-3 post-pulse operations during December–June. These conditions would be expected to increase the proportion of juvenile salmon entering the interior Delta through Georgiana Slough.In the second analysis, we assessed bias in Delta Simulation Model 2 (DSM2) flow predictions at the junction of the Sacramento River, DCC, and Georgiana Slough. Because DSM2 was being used to simulate California WaterFix operations, understanding the extent of bias relative to USGS streamgages was important since fish routing models were based on flow data at streamgages. We determined that river flow predicted by DSM2 was biased for Georgiana Slough and the Sacramento River. Therefore, for subsequent analysis, we bias-corrected the DSM2 flow predictions using measured stream flows as predictor variables.In the third analysis, we evaluated the effect of the NDD on the daily probability of fish entering Georgiana Slough and the DCC. We applied an existing model to predict entrainment from 15-minute flow simulations for an 82-year time series of flows simulated by DSM2 under the Proposed Action (PA), where the North Delta Diversion is implemented under California WaterFix, and the No Action Alternative (NAA), where the diversion is not implemented. To estimate the daily fraction of fish entering each river channel, entrainment probabilities were averaged over each day. To evaluate the two scenarios, we then compared mean annual entrainment probabilities by month, water year classification, and three different assumed run timings. Overall, the probability of remaining in the Sacramento River was lower under the PA scenario, but the magnitude of the difference was small (3/s. At flows greater than 41,000 ft3/s, we hypothesize that entrainment into the interior Delta is relatively constant, which would have caused little difference between scenarios at higher flows.

Contraction rate, flow modification and bed layering impact on scour at the elliptical guide banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gjunsburgs, B.; Jaudzems, G.; Bizane, M.; Bulankina, V.

2017-10-01

Flow contraction by the bridge crossing structures, intakes, embankments, piers, abutments and guide banks leads to general scour and the local scour in the vicinity of the structures. Local scour is depending on flow, river bed and structures parameters and correct understanding of the impact of each parameter can reduce failure possibility of the structures. The paper explores hydraulic contraction, the discharge redistribution between channel and floodplain during the flood, local flow modification and river bed layering on depth, width and volume of scour hole near the elliptical guide banks on low-land rivers. Experiments in a flume, our method for scour calculation and computer modelling results confirm a considerable impact of the contraction rate of the flow, the discharge redistribution between channel and floodplain, the local velocity, backwater and river bed layering on the depth, width, and volume of scour hole in steady and unsteady flow, under clear water condition. With increase of the contraction rate of the flow, the discharge redistribution between channel and floodplain, the local velocity, backwater values, the scour depth increases. At the same contraction rate, but at a different Fr number, the scour depth is different: with increase in the Fr number, the local velocity, backwater, scour depth, width, and volume is increasing. Acceptance of the geometrical contraction of the flow, approach velocity and top sand layer of the river bed for scour depth calculation as accepted now, may be the reason of the structures failure and human life losses.

A Riparian Approach to Dendrochronological Flow Reconstruction, Yellowstone River, Montana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schook, D. M.; Rathburn, S. L.; Friedman, J. M.

2015-12-01

Tree ring-based flow reconstructions can reveal river discharge variability over durations far exceeding the gauged record, building perspective for both the measured record and future flows. We use plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera) tree rings collected from four rivers to reconstruct flow history of the Yellowstone River near its confluence with the Missouri River. Upland trees in dry regions are typically used in flow reconstruction because their annual growth is controlled by the same precipitation that drives downstream flow, but our study improves flow reconstruction by including floodplain trees that are directly affected by the river. Cores from over 1000 cottonwoods along the Yellowstone, Powder, Little Missouri, and Redwater Rivers were collected from within a 170 km radius to reconstruct flows using the Age Curve Standardization technique in a multiple regression analysis. The large sample from trees spanning many age classes allows us to use only the rings that were produced when each tree was less than 50 years old and growth was most strongly correlated to river discharge. Using trees from a range of rivers improves our ability to differentiate between growth resulting from local precipitation and river flow, and we show that cottonwood growth differs across these neighboring rivers having different watersheds. Using the program Seascorr, tree growth is found to better correlated to seasonal river discharge (R = 0.69) than to local precipitation (R = 0.45). Our flow reconstruction reveals that the most extreme multi-year or multi-decade drought periods of the last 250 years on either the Yellowstone (1817-1821) or Powder (1846-1865) Rivers are missed by the gauged discharge record. Across all sites, we document increased growth in the 20th century compared to the 19th, a finding unattainable with conventional methods but having important implications for flow management.

More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in the Pearl River basin, China, since 1951 and over the past 1000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Sun, Peng

2018-05-01

Flood risks across the Pearl River basin, China, were evaluated using a peak flood flow dataset covering a period of 1951-2014 from 78 stations and historical flood records of the past 1000 years. The generalized extreme value (GEV) model and the kernel estimation method were used to evaluate frequencies and risks of hazardous flood events. Results indicated that (1) no abrupt changes or significant trends could be detected in peak flood flow series at most of the stations, and only 16 out of 78 stations exhibited significant peak flood flow changes with change points around 1990. Peak flood flow in the West River basin increased and significant increasing trends were identified during 1981-2010; decreasing peak flood flow was found in coastal regions and significant trends were observed during 1951-2014 and 1966-2014. (2) The largest three flood events were found to cluster in both space and time. Generally, basin-scale flood hazards can be expected in the West and North River basins. (3) The occurrence rate of floods increased in the middle Pearl River basin but decreased in the lower Pearl River basin. However, hazardous flood events were observed in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, and this is particularly true for the past 100 years. However, precipitation extremes were subject to moderate variations and human activities, such as building of levees, channelization of river systems, and rapid urbanization; these were the factors behind the amplification of floods in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, posing serious challenges for developing measures of mitigation of flood hazards in the lower Pearl River basin, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region.

Debris flows in Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona: magnitude, frequency and effects on the Colorado River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melis, Theodre S.; Webb, Robert H.; ,

1993-01-01

Debris flows are recurrent sediment-transport processes in 525 tributaries of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Arizona. Initiated by slope failures in bedrock and (or) colluvium during intense rainfall, Grand Canyon debris flows are high-magnitude, short-duration floods. Debris flows in these tributaries transport very large boulders into the river where they accumulate on debris fans and form rapids. The frequency of debris flows range from less than 1 per century to 10 or more per century in these tributaries. Before regulation by Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, high-magnitude floods on the Colorado River reworked debris fans by eroding all particles except large boulders. Because flow regulation has substantially decreased the river's competence, debris flows occurring after 1963 have increased accumulation of finer-grained sediments on debris fans and in rapids.

Effects of stream flow intermittency on riparian vegetation of a semiarid region river (San Pedro River, Arizona)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stromberg, J.C.; Bagstad, K.J.; Leenhouts, J.M.; Lite, S.J.; Makings, E.

2005-01-01

The San Pedro River in the southwestern United States retains a natural flood regime and has several reaches with perennial stream flow and shallow ground water. However, much of the river flows intermittently. Urbanization-linked declines in regional ground-water levels have raised concerns over the future status of the riverine ecosystem in some parts of the river, while restoration-linked decreases in agricultural ground-water pumping are expected to increase stream flows in other parts. This study describes the response of the streamside herbaceous vegetation to changes in stream flow permanence. During the early summer dry season, streamside herbaceous cover and species richness declined continuously across spatial gradients of flow permanence, and composition shifted from hydric to mesic species at sites with more intermittent flow. Hydrologic threshold values were evident for one plant functional group: Schoenoplectus acutus, Juncus torreyi, and other hydric riparian plants declined sharply in cover with loss of perennial stream flow. In contrast, cover of mesic riparian perennials (including Cynodon dactylon, an introduced species) increased at sites with intermittent flow. Patterns of hydric and mesic riparian annuals varied by season: in the early summer dry season their cover declined continuously as flow became more intermittent, while in the late summer wet season their cover increased as the flow became more intermittent. Periodic drought at the intermittent sites may increase opportunities for establishment of these annuals during the monsoonal flood season. During the late summer flood season, stream flow was present at most sites, and fewer vegetation traits were correlated with flow permanence; cover and richness were correlated with other environmental factors including site elevation and substrate nitrate level and particle size. Although perennial-flow and intermittent-flow sites support different streamside plant communities, all of the plant functional groups are abundant at perennial-flow sites when viewing the ecosystem at broader spatial and temporal scales: mesic riparian perennials are common in the floodplain zone adjacent to the river channel and late-summer hydric and mesic annuals are periodically abundant after large floods. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impacts of impervious cover, water withdrawals, and climate change on river flows in the conterminous US

Treesearch

P. V. Caldwell; G. Sun; S. G. McNulty; E. C. Cohen; J. A. Moore Myers

2012-01-01

Rivers are essential to aquatic ecosystem and societal sustainability, but are increasingly impacted by water withdrawals, land-use change, and climate change. The relative and cumulative effects of these stressors on continental river flows are relatively unknown. In this study, we used an integrated water balance and flow routing model to evaluate the impacts of...

River flow changes related to land and water management practices across the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eng, Ken; Wolock, David M.; Carlisle, Daren M.

2013-01-01

The effects of land and water management practices (LWMP)—such as the construction of dams and roads—on river flows typically have been studied at the scale of single river watersheds or for a single type of LWMP. For the most part, assessments of the relative effects of multiple LWMP within many river watersheds across regional and national scales have been lacking. This study assesses flow alteration—quantified as deviation of several flow metrics from natural conditions—at 4196 gauged rivers affected by a variety of LWMP across the conterminous United States. The most widespread causes of flow changes among the LWMP considered were road density and dams. Agricultural development and wastewater discharges also were associated with flow changes in some regions. Dams generally reduced most attributes of flow, whereas road density, agriculture and wastewater discharges tended to be associated with increased flows compared to their natural condition.

Hydraulic-Geometry Relations for Rivers in Coastal and Central Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.

2004-01-01

Hydraulic-geometry relations (curves) were derived for 15 sites on 12 rivers in coastal and central Maine on the basis of site-specific (at-a-station) hydraulic-geometry relations and hydraulic models. At-a-station hydraulic-geometry curves, expressed as well-established power functions, describe the relations between channel geometry, velocity, and flow at a given point on a river. The derived at-a-station hydraulic-geometry curves indicate that, on average, a given increase in flow at a given river cross section in the study area will be nearly equally conveyed by increases in velocity and channel cross-sectional area. Regional curves describing the bankfull streamflow and associated channel geometry as functions of drainage area were derived for use in stream-channel assessment and restoration projects specific to coastal and central Maine. Regional hydraulic-geometry curves were derived by combining hydraulic-geometry information for 15 river cross sections using bankfull flow as the common reference streamflow. The exponents of the derived regional hydraulic-geometry relations indicate that, in the downstream direction, most of the conveyance of increasing contribution of flow is accommodated by an increase in cross-sectional area?with about 50 percent of the increase in flow accommodated by an increase in channel width, and 32 percent by an increase in depth. The remaining 18 percent is accommodated by an increase in streamflow velocity. On an annual-peak-series basis, results of this study indicate that the occurrence of bankfull streamflow for rivers in Maine is more frequent than the 1.5-year streamflow. On a flow-duration basis, bankfull streamflow for rivers in coastal and central Maine is equaled or exceeded approximately 8.1 percent of the time on mean?or about 30 days a year. Bankfull streamflow is roughly three times that of the mean annual streamflow for the sites investigated in this study. Regional climate, snowmelt hydrology, and glacial geology may play important roles in dictating the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of bankfull streamflows observed for rivers in coastal and central Maine.

Simulating climate change and socio-economic change impacts on flows and water quality in the Mahanadi River system, India.

PubMed

Jin, Li; Whitehead, Paul G; Rodda, Harvey; Macadam, Ian; Sarkar, Sananda

2018-10-01

Delta systems formed by the deposition of sediments at the mouths of large catchments are vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate change impacts. Deltas often have some of the highest population densities in the world and the Mahanadi Delta in India is one of these, with a population of 39 million. The Mahanadi River is a major river in East Central India and flows through Chattisgarh and Orissa states before discharging into the Bay of Bengal. This study uses an Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) to simulate flow dynamics and water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) and to analyze the impacts of climate change and socio-economic drivers in the Mahanadi River system. Future flows affected by large population growth, effluent discharge increases and changes in irrigation water demand from changing land uses are assessed under shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Model results indicate a significant increase in monsoon flows under the future climates at 2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2079-2098) which greatly enhances flood potential. The water availability under low flow conditions will be worsened because of increased water demand from population growth and increased irrigation in the future. Decreased concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus are expected due to increased flow hence dilution. Socio-economic scenarios have a significant impact on water quality but less impact on the river flow. For example, higher population growth, increased sewage treatment discharges, land use change and enhanced atmospheric deposition would result in the deterioration of water quality, while the upgrade of the sewage treatment works lead to improved water quality. In summary, socio-economic scenarios would change future water quality of the Mahanadi River and alter nutrient fluxes transported into the delta region. This study has serious implications for people's livelihoods in the deltaic area and could impact coastal and Bay of Bengal water ecology. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of deposition of fine plant debris in river floodplain shrubs on flood flow conditions - The Warta River case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazur, Robert; Kałuża, Tomasz; Chmist, Joanna; Walczak, Natalia; Laks, Ireneusz; Strzeliński, Paweł

2016-08-01

This paper presents problems caused by organic material transported by flowing water. This material is usually referred to as plant debris or organic debris. Its composition depends on the characteristic of the watercourse. For lowland rivers, the share of the so-called small organic matter in plant debris is considerable. This includes both various parts of water plants and floodplain vegetation (leaves, stems, blades of grass, twigs, etc.). During floods, larger woody debris poses a significant risk to bridges or other water engineering structures. It may cause river jams and may lead to damming of the flowing water. This, in turn, affects flood safety and increases flood risk in river valleys, both directly and indirectly. The importance of fine plant debris for the phenomenon being studied comes down to the hydrodynamic aspect (plant elements carried by water end up on trees and shrubs, increase hydraulic flow resistance and contribute to the nature of flow through vegetated areas changed from micro-to macro-structural). The key part of the research problem under analysis was to determine qualitative and quantitative debris parameters and to establish the relationship between the type of debris and the type of land use of river valleys (crop fields, meadows and forested river sections). Another problem was to identify parameters of plant debris for various flow conditions (e.g. for low, medium and flood flows). The research also included an analysis of the materials deposited on the structure of shrubs under flood flow conditions during the 2010 flood on the Warta River.

Hydrological Controls on Dissolved Organic Matter Quality and Export in a Coastal River System in Southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, R.; Osburn, C. L.

2017-12-01

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) exported from river catchments can influence the biogeochemical processes in coastal environments with implications for water quality and carbon budget. High flow conditions are responsible for most DOM export ("pulses") from watersheds, and these events reduce DOM transformation and production by "shunting" DOM from river networks into coastal waters: the Pulse-Shunt Concept (PSC). Subsequently, the source and quality of DOM is also expected to change as a function of river flow. Here, we used stream dissolved organic carbon concentrations ([DOC]) along with DOM optical properties, such as absorbance at 350 nm (a350) and fluorescence excitation and emission matrices modeled by parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC), to characterize DOM source, quality and fluxes under variable flow conditions for the Neuse River, a coastal river system in the southeastern US. Observations were made at a flow gauged station above head of tide periodically between Aug 2011 and Feb 2013, which captured low flow periods in summer and several high flow events including Hurricane Irene. [DOC] and a350 were correlated and varied positively with river flow, implying that a large portion of the DOM was colored, humic and flow-mobilized. During high flow conditions, PARAFAC results demonstrated the higher influx of terrestrial humic DOM, and lower in-stream phytoplankton production or microbial degradation. However, during low flow, DOM transformation and production increased in response to higher residence times and elevated productivity. Further, 70% of the DOC was exported by above average flows, where 3-4 fold increases in DOC fluxes were observed during episodic events, consistent with PSC. These results imply that storms dramatically affects DOM export to coastal waters, whereby high river flow caused by episodic events primarily shunt terrestrial DOM to coastal waters, whereas low flow promotes in-stream DOM transformation and amendment with microbial DOM.

An environmental streamflow assessment for the Santiam River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risley, John C.; Wallick, J. Rose; Mangano, Joseph F.; Jones, Krista L.

2012-01-01

The Santiam River is a tributary of the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon and drains an area of 1,810 square miles. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates four dams in the basin, which are used primarily for flood control, hydropower production, recreation, and water-quality improvement. The Detroit and Big Cliff Dams were constructed in 1953 on the North Santiam River. The Green Peter and Foster Dams were completed in 1967 on the South Santiam River. The impacts of the structures have included a decrease in the frequency and magnitude of floods and an increase in low flows. For three North Santiam River reaches, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 42–50 percent because of regulated streamflow conditions. Likewise, for three reaches in the South Santiam River basin, the median of annual 1-day maximum streamflows decreased 39–52 percent because of regulation. In contrast to their effect on high flows, the dams increased low flows. The median of annual 7-day minimum flows in six of the seven study reaches increased under regulated streamflow conditions between 60 and 334 percent. On a seasonal basis, median monthly streamflows decreased from February to May and increased from September to January in all the reaches. However, the magnitude of these impacts usually decreased farther downstream from dams because of cumulative inflow from unregulated tributaries and groundwater entering the North, South, and main-stem Santiam Rivers below the dams. A Wilcox rank-sum test of monthly precipitation data from Salem, Oregon, and Waterloo, Oregon, found no significant difference between the pre-and post-dam periods, which suggests that the construction and operation of the dams since the 1950s and 1960s are a primary cause of alterations to the Santiam River basin streamflow regime. In addition to the streamflow analysis, this report provides a geomorphic characterization of the Santiam River basin and the associated conceptual framework for assessing possible geomorphic and ecological changes in response to river-flow modifications. Suggestions for future biomonitoring and investigations are also provided. This study was one in a series of similar tributary streamflow and geomorphic studies conducted for the Willamette Sustainable Rivers Project. The Sustainable Rivers Project is a national effort by the USACE and The Nature Conservancy to develop environmental flow requirements in regulated river systems.

Preliminary hydraulic analysis and implications for restoration of Noyes Slough, Fairbanks, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burrows, Robert L.; Langley, Dustin E.; Evetts, David M.

2000-01-01

The present-day channels of the Chena River and Noyes Slough in downtown Fairbanks, Alaska, were formed as sloughs of the Tanana River, and part of the flow of the Tanana River occupied these waterways. Flow in these channels was reduced after the completion of Moose Creek Dike in 1945, and flow in the Chena River was affected by regulation from the Chena River Lakes Flood Control Project, which was completed in 1980. In 1981, flow in the Chena River was regulated for the first time by Moose Creek Dam, located about 20 miles upstream from Fairbanks. Constructed as part of the Chena River Lakes Flood Control Project, the dam was designed to reduce maximum flows to 12,000 cubic feet per second in downtown Fairbanks. Cross-section measurements made near the entrance to Noyes Slough show that the channel bed of the Chena River has been downcutting, thereby reducing the magnitude and duration of flow in the slough. Consequently the slough slowly is drying up. The slough provides habitat for wildlife such as ducks, beaver, and muskrat and is a fishery for anadromous and other resident species. Beavers have built 10 dams in the slough. Declining flow in the slough may endanger the remaining habitat. Residents of the community wish to restore flow in Noyes Slough to create a clean, flowing waterway during normal summer flows. The desire is to enhance the slough as a fishery and habitat for other wildlife and for recreational boating. During this study, existing and new data were compiled to determine past and present hydraulic interaction between the Chena River and Noyes Slough. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HECRAS) computer program was used to construct a model to use in evaluating alternatives for increasing flow in the slough. Under present conditions, the Chena must flow at about 2,400 cubic feet per second or more for flow to enter Noyes Slough. In an average year, water flows in Noyes Slough for 106 days during the open-water season, and maximum flow is about 1,050 cubic feet per second. The model was used to test a single method of increasing flow in Noyes Slough. A modified channel 40 feet wide and about 2 feet deeper within the existing slough channel was simulated by changing the cross-section geometry in the HECRAS model. The resulting model showed that flow in such a modified slough channel would begin at a flow of about 830 cubic feet per second in the Chena River and would increase to a maximum flow of about 1,440 cubic feet per second. In an average year, flow would continue for 158 days during the open-water season. Theoretically, enlarging the slough channel by lowering its bed could increase flow, but other solutions are possible. Possible obstacles to excavating the channel, such as bridges and utility crossings, and the destruction of desirable features such as beaver dams were not considered in the study. Further engineering and economic analyses would be needed to assess the cost of excavation and future maintenance of the modified channel. A computer-modeling program such as HECRAS may provide a means for testing other solutions.

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siam, Mohamed S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2017-04-01

The human population living in the Nile basin countries is projected to double by 2050, approaching one billion. The increase in water demand associated with this burgeoning population will put significant stress on the available water resources. Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation. Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent projections from climate model simulations suggesting that the standard deviation describing interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by 50% (+/-35%) (multi-model ensemble mean +/- 1 standard deviation) in the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. We attribute the relatively large change in interannual variability of the Nile flow to projected increases in future occurrences of El Niño and La Niña events and to observed teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Nile River flow. Adequacy of current water storage capacity and plans for additional storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated given the projected enhancement of interannual variability in the future flow of the Nile river.

Characteristics of water quality of rivers related to land-use in Penang Island Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen, Lim Jia; Matsumoto, Yoshitaka; Yin, Chee Su; Wern, Hong Chern; Inoue, Takanobu; Usami, Akiko; Iwatsuki, Eiji; Yagi, Akihiko

2017-10-01

A study of the Water Quality Index (WQI) of rivers in Penang Island, Malaysia conducted by Universiti Sains Malaysia from October 2012 to January 2013 shows that almost all rivers in Penang Island were slightly polluted or polluted. However, WQI does not clarify each water quality indices, for example nutrients and organic pollutants, that reflect the land-use and pollution source in the catchment. Therefore, in this research, the main objectives are to investigate the interaction of land-use and the water quality of rivers in Penang Island, the quantity of pollutant loads discharged, and identification of the pollution sources along the rivers. The procedure starts from the selection of rivers and parameters for investigation, carrying out field survey and sampling, measuring and analyzing each sample, and lastly, providing a conclusion. The three rivers selected are Pinang River, Keluang River and Burung River. In this research, the results show that total organic carbon (TOC) increases generally as the rivers flow towards the river mouths, which means the degree of organic pollution increases along the rivers. In Pinang River, TOC increases as the tributaries from housing areas flow into the mainstream whereas in Keluang River, a marked increase of TOC is shown in the location where the wastewater from a sewage treatment plant discharges. In Burung River, TOC increases as the river flows through the paddy fields. In the principal component analysis, all sampling points of the three rivers are able to be classified into five groups based on the characteristics of water quality. For example, upstream of Keluang River and Burung River show mutual characteristics in terms of man-made pollution index and heavy metal pollution index. As a conclusion, the results in this research show that the characteristics of water quality in Penang Island are highly affected by land-use surrounding the rivers.

Sediment transport patterns and climate change: the downstream Tuul River case study, Northern Mongolia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietroń, Jan; Jarsjö, Jerker

2014-05-01

Ongoing changes in the Central Asian climate including increasing temperatures can influence the hydrological regimes of rivers and the waterborne transport of sediments. Changes in the latter, especially in combination with adverse human activities, may severely impact water quality and aquatic ecosystems. However, waterborne transport of sediments is a result of complex processes and varies considerably between, and even within, river systems. There is therefore a need to increase our general knowledge about sediment transport under changing climate conditions. The Tuul River, the case site of this study, is located in the upper part of the basin of the Selenga River that is the main tributary to Lake Baikal, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Like many other rivers located in the steppes of Northern Mongolia, the Tuul River is characterized by a hydrological regime that is not disturbed by engineered structures such as reservoirs and dams. However, the water quality of the downstream Tuul River is increasingly affected by adverse human activities - including placer gold mining. The largest contribution to the annual river discharge occurs during the relatively warm period in May to August. Typically, there are numerous rainfall events during this period that cause considerable river flow peaks. Parallel work has furthermore shown that due to climate change, the daily variability of discharge and numbers of peak flow events in the Tuul River Basin has increased during the past 60 years. This trend is expected to continue. We here aim at increasing our understanding of future sediment transport patterns in the Tuul River, specifically considering the scenario that peak flow events may become more frequent due to climate change. We use a one-dimensional sediment transport model of the downstream reach of the river to simulate natural patterns of sediment transport for a recent hydrological year. In general, the results show that sediment transport varies considerably spatially and temporally. Peak flow events during the warm period contribute largely to the total annual transport of sediments and also to the erosion of stored bed material. These results suggest that if the number of peak flow events will increase further due to climate change, there will be a significant increase in the annual sediment load and consequently in the load of contaminants that are attached to the sediments, in particular downstream of mining sites. The present results are furthermore consistent with parallel studies on sediment transport and climate change showing that increased water discharges and frequencies of rainfall/flow events can lead to enhanced erosion processes. Furthermore, in addition to climate change effects, human activates can change sediment loads in rivers to even greater extent, as pointed out in several studies. Thus, several different challenges can be expected to face the management of Central Asian rivers such as Tuul and their ecosystems in the future.

Streamflow and Topographic Characteristics of the Platte River near Grand Island, Nebraska, 1938-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodward, Brenda K.

2008-01-01

The central Platte River is a dynamic, braided, sand-bed river located near Grand Island, Nebraska. An understanding of the Platte River channel characteristics, hydrologic flow patterns, and geomorphic conditions is important for the operation and management of water resources by the City of Grand Island. The north channel of the Platte River flows within 1 mile of the municipal well field, and its surface-water flow recharges the underlying aquifer, which serves as a water source for the city. Recharge from the north channel helps minimize the flow of contaminated ground water from the north of the channel towards the well field. In recent years the river channels have experienced no-flow conditions for extended periods during the summer and fall seasons, and it has been observed that no-flow conditions in the north channel often persist after streamflow has returned to the other three channels. This potentially allows more contaminated ground water to move toward the municipal well field each year, and has caused resource managers to ask whether human disturbances or natural geomorphic change have contributed to the increased frequency of no-flow conditions in the north channel. Analyses of aerial photography, channel surveys, Light Detection and Ranging data, discharge measurements, and historical land surveys were used to understand the past and present dynamics of the four channels of the Platte River near Grand Island and to detect changes with time. Results indicate that some minor changes have occurred in the channels. Changes in bed elevation, channel location, and width were minimal when compared using historical information. Changes in discharge distribution among channels indicate that low- and no-flow conditions in the north channel may be attributed to the small changes in channel characteristics or small elevation differences, along with recent reductions in total streamflow within the Platte River near Grand Island, or to factors not measured in this study, such as increased channel roughness from increased vegetation within the channel.

Simulated Water-Management Alternatives Using the Modular Modeling System for the Methow River Basin, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.

2004-01-01

A precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin was used to simulate six alternatives: (1) baseline of current flow, (2) line irrigation canals to limit seepage losses, (3) increase surface-water diversions through unlined canals for aquifer recharge, (4) convert from surface-water to ground-water resources to supply water for irrigation, and (5) reduce tree density in forested headwater catchments, and (6) natural flow. Daily streamflow from October 1, 1959, to September 30, 2001 (water years 1960?2001) was simulated. Lining irrigation canals (alternative 2) increased flows in the Chewuch, Twisp, and the Methow (upstream and at Twisp) Rivers during September because of lower diversion rates, but not in the Methow River near Pateros. Increasing diversions for aquifer recharge (alternative 3) increased streamflow from September into January, but reduced streamflow earlier in the summer. Conversion of surface-water diversions to ground-water wells (alternative 4) resulted in the largest increase in September streamflow of any alternative, but also marginally lower January flows (at most -8 percent in the 90-percent exceedence value). Forest-cover reduction (alternative 5) produced large increases in streamflow during high-flow periods in May and June and earlier onset of high flows and small increases in January streamflows. September streamflows were largely unaffected by alternative 5. Natural streamflow (alternative 6) was higher in September and lower in January than the baseline alternative.

Effects of a 2006 High-Flow Release from Tiber Dam on Channel Morphology at Selected Sites on the Marias River, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Auble, Gregor T.; Bowen, Zachary H.

2008-01-01

In June 2006, an opportunistic high-flow release was made from Tiber Dam on the Marias River in Mont., to investigate possible alternatives for partially restoring the river's natural flow pattern and variability. At two sites along the river, we measured channel geometry before and after the high-flow release to evaluate channel change and alteration of physical habitat. Streamflow downstream from Tiber Dam has been stabilized by reduction of high flows and augmentation of low flows. This has produced flood-control benefits as well as some possible adverse environmental effects downstream from the dam. The 2006 high-flow release resulted in a downstream hydrograph with high flows of above-average magnitude in the post-dam flow regime of the Marias River. Timing of the peak and the declining limb of the release hydrograph were very similar to a historical, unregulated hydrograph of the Marias River. Furthermore, the high flow produced many of the qualitative elements of ecologically important physical processes that can be diminished or lost due to flow stabilization downstream from a dam. Typically dry back channels were occupied by flowing water. Islands were inundated, resulting in vegetation removal and sediment accretion that produced new disturbance patches of bare, moist substrate. Cut banks were eroded, and large woody debris was added to the river and redistributed. Flood-plain surfaces were inundated, producing substantial increases in wetted perimeter and spatially distinctive patterns of deposition associated with natural levee formation. The scale of the 2006 high flow - in terms of peak magnitude and the lateral extent of bottomland influenced by inundation or lateral channel movement - was roughly an order of magnitude smaller than the scale of an infrequent high flow in the pre-dam regime. Overall extent and composition of riparian vegetation will continue to change under a scaled-down, post-dam flow regime. For example, the importance of the non-native Russian-olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia) will likely increase. Reestablishing a more natural pattern of flows, however, should promote the increase of native cottonwood and willow (Salix spp.) in the new-albeit smaller-post-dam riparian ecosystem. A more natural flow regime will also likely provide improved habitat for native fish in the Marias River. Response of fish communities to such flows is the subject of current fisheries studies being conducted in cooperation with Bureau of Reclamation.

Base flow (1966-2005) and streamflow gain and loss (2006) of the Brazos River, McLennan County to Fort Bend County, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turco, Michael J.; East, Jeffery W.; Milburn, Matthew S.

2007-01-01

During 2006?07, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas Water Development Board, did a study to quantify historical (water years 1966?2005) base flow and streamflow gains and losses from two streamflow-measuring surveys (March and August 2006) in the Brazos River from McLennan County to Fort Bend County, Texas. The Brazos River is hydraulically connected to the Brazos River alluvium aquifer, which in turn is hydraulically connected to several underlying aquifers, the outcrops of which occur in laterally adjacent layers generally parallel to the coast (major aquifers, Carrizo-Wilcox and Gulf Coast, and minor aquifers, Queen City, Sparta, and Yegua-Jackson). Hydrograph separation was done using the USGS computer program Hydrograph Separation and Analysis with historical streamflow from 10 USGS gaging stations, three on the Brazos River and seven on selected tributaries to the Brazos River. Streamflow data for computation of gains and losses were collected in March 2006 from 36 sites on the Brazos River and 19 sites on 19 tributaries to the Brazos River; and in August 2006 from 28 sites on the Brazos River and 16 sites on tributaries. Hydrograph separation and associated analyses indicate an appreciable increase in base flow as a percentage of streamflow in the reach of the Brazos River that crosses the outcrops of the Carrizo-Wilcox, Queen City, Sparta, and Yegua-Jackson aquifers compared to that in the adjacent upstream reach (on average from about 43 percent to about 60 percent). No increase in base flow as a percentage of streamflow in the reach of the Brazos River crossing the Gulf Coast aquifer compared to that in the adjacent upstream reach was indicated. Streamflow gains and losses computed for March 2006 for 35 reaches defined by pairs of sites on the Brazos River indicated that five reaches were verifiably gaining streamflow (computed gain exceeded potential flow measurement error) and none were verifiably losing streamflow. Four of the five gaining reaches are in the outcrop areas of the Carrizo-Wilcox and Yegua-Jackson aquifers. The results of the synoptic gain and loss surveys are consistent with the results of the base-flow analysis of historical streamflow. Appreciable increases in streamflow, apparently the result of increases in base flow, occur in the reach of the Brazos River that crosses the outcrops of the Carrizo-Wilcox, Queen City, Sparta, and Yegua-Jackson aquifers.

Phosphorus Concentrations, Loads, and Yields in the Illinois River Basin, Arkansas and Oklahoma, 1997-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pickup, Barbara E.; Andrews, William J.; Haggard, Brian E.; Green, W. Reed

2003-01-01

The Illinois River and tributaries, Flint Creek and the Baron Fork, are designated scenic rivers in Oklahoma. Recent phosphorus increases in streams in the basin have resulted in the growth of excess algae, which have limited the aesthetic benefits of water bodies in the basin, especially the Illinois River and Lake Tenkiller. The Oklahoma Water Resources Board has established a standard for total phosphorus not to exceed the 30- day geometric mean concentration of 0.037 milligram per liter in Oklahoma Scenic Rivers. Data from water-quality samples from 1997 to 2001 were used to summarize phosphorus concentrations and estimate phosphorus loads, yields, and flowweighted concentrations in the Illinois River basin. Phosphorus concentrations in the Illinois River basin generally were significantly greater in runoff-event samples than in base-flow samples. Phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with increasing base flow, from dilution, and increased with runoff, possibly because of phosphorus resuspension, stream bank erosion, and the addition of phosphorus from nonpoint sources. Estimated mean annual phosphorus loads were greater at the Illinois River stations than at Flint Creek and the Baron Fork. Loads appeared to generally increase with time during 1997-2001 at all stations, but this increase might be partly attributable to the beginning of runoff-event sampling in the basin in July 1999. Base-flow loads at stations on the Illinois River were about 10 times greater than those on the Baron Fork and 5 times greater than those on Flint Creek. Runoff components of the annual total phosphorus load ranged from 58.7 to 96.8 percent from 1997-2001. Base-flow and runoff loads were generally greatest in spring (March through May) or summer (June through August), and were least in fall (September through November). Total yields of phosphorus ranged from 107 to 797 pounds per year per square mile. Greatest yields were at Flint Creek near Kansas (365 to 797 pounds per year per square mile) and the least yields were at Baron Fork at Eldon (107 to 440 pounds per year per square mile). Estimated mean flow-weighted concentrations were more than 10 times greater than the median and were consistently greater than the 75th percentile of flow-weighted phosphorus concentrations in samples collected at relatively undeveloped basins of the United States (0.022 milligram per liter and 0.037 milligram per liter, respectively). In addition, flow-weighted phosphorus concentrations in 1999-2001 at all Illinois River stations and at Flint Creek near Kansas were equal to or greater than the 75th percentile of all National Water-Quality Assessment program stations in the United States (0.29 milligram per liter). The annual average phosphorus load entering Lake Tenkiller was about 577,000 pounds per year, and more than 86 percent of the load was transported to the lake by runoff.The Illinois River and tributaries, Flint Creek and the Baron Fork, are designated scenic rivers in Oklahoma. Recent phosphorus increases in streams in the basin have resulted in the growth of excess algae, which have limited the aesthetic benefits of water bodies in the basin, especially the Illinois River and Lake Tenkiller. The Oklahoma Water Resources Board has established a standard for total phosphorus not to exceed the 30- day geometric mean concentration of 0.037 milligram per liter in Oklahoma Scenic Rivers. Data from water-quality samples from 1997 to 2001 were used to summarize phosphorus concentrations and estimate phosphorus loads, yields, and flowweighted concentrations in the Illinois River basin. Phosphorus concentrations in the Illinois River basin generally were significantly greater in runoff-event samples than in base-flow samples. Phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with increasing base flow, from dilution, and increased with runoff, possibly because of phosphorus resuspension, stream bank erosion, and the addition of phosphorus

Dramatic undercutting of piedmont rivers after the 2008 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake

PubMed Central

Fan, Niannian; Nie, Ruihua; Wang, Qiang; Liu, Xingnian

2016-01-01

Changes in river channel erosion or deposition affect the geomorphic evolution, aquatic ecosystems, and river regulation strategies. Fluvial processes are determined by the flow, sediment and boundary conditions, and it has long been expected that increasing sediment supply will induce aggradation. Here, based on thorough field surveys, we show the unexpected undercutting of the piedmont rivers influenced by the 2008 Wenchuan (Ms 8.0) Earthquake. The rivers flow from the Longmen Mountain with significant topographic relief to the flat Chengdu plain. In the upstreams, sediment supply increased because of the landslides triggered by the earthquake, causing deposition in the upstream mountain reaches. However, the downstream plain reaches suffered undercutting instead of deposition, and among those rivers, Shiting River was the most seriously affected, with the largest undercutting depth exceeding 20 m. The reasons for this unexpected undercutting are proposed herein and relate to both natural and anthropogenic causes. In addition, we also demonstrate, at least for certain conditions, such as rivers flowing from large-gradient mountain regions to low-gradient plain regions, that upstream sediment pulses may induce aggradation in upstream and degradation in downstream, causing the longitudinal profile to steepen to accommodate the increasing sediment flux. PMID:27857220

Cottonwood Tree Rings and Climate in Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedman, J. M.; Edmondson, J.; Griffin, E. R.; Meko, D. M.; Merigliano, M. F.; Scott, J. A.; Scott, M. L.; Touchan, R.

2012-12-01

In dry landscapes of interior western USA, cottonwood (Populus spp.) seedling establishment often occurs only close to river channels after floods. Where winter is sufficiently cold, cottonwoods also have distinct annual rings and can live up to 370 years, allowing us to reconstruct the long-term history of river flows and channel locations. We have analyzed the annual rate of cottonwood establishment along streams in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota and Idaho. Because the trees germinate next to the river, establishment rates are strongly correlated with the rate of channel migration driven by floods. Along large rivers dominated by snowmelt from the mountains, interannual variation in peak flows and cottonwood establishment is small, and century-scale variation driven by climate change is apparent. The upper Snake, Yellowstone and Green rivers all show a strong decrease in cottonwood establishment beginning in the late 1800s and continuing to the present, indicating a decrease in peak flows prior to flow regulation by large dams. This is consistent with published tree-ring studies of montane conifers showing decreases in snowpack at the same time scale. In contrast, beginning in the late 1800s cottonwood ring widths along the Little Missouri River, North Dakota show an increase in annual growth that continues into the present. Because annual growth is strongly correlated with April-July flows (r=0.69) the ring-width data suggest an increase in April-July flows at the same time tree establishment dates suggest a decrease in peak flows. These results may be reconciled by the hypothesis that increases in low temperatures have decreased snowpack while lengthening the growing season.

A hydromorphological framework for the evaluation of e-flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussettini, Martina; Rinaldi, Massimo; Grant, Gordon

2017-04-01

Anthropogenic alteration of hydromorphological processes in rivers is a major factor that diminishes river health and undermines environmental objectives envisaged by river protection policies. Specifying environmental flows to address those impacts can be a key strategy for the maintenance of functional river processes and the achievement of those objectives. Environmental flows are determined by various methods and approaches, based primarily on hydrological and/or hydraulic evaluations, although holistic methodologies, considering the many interacting factors that structure aquatic ecosystems, including sediments, are increasingly used. Hydrological and geomorphological processes are highly coupled and any change in one typically affects the other. The coupling varies over different spatial and temporal scales, and changing either hydrological or geomorphological processes can result in alteration of river habitats, ultimately impacting ecological processes. In spite of these linkages, current restoration approaches typically focus only on changes on hydrological regime as a means promoting ecological enhancements. Neglecting sediment transport and its interaction with flow in shaping riverine habitats is likely to results not only in minor or no enhancements in the ecology, but may also increase the costs of water use. A more integrated view of how human activities jointly affect sediment regime, river morphology and river flows is therefore needed in order to determine the most effective actions to rehabilitate river processes to desired states. These states involve considerations of the combination of intrinsic ("natural") conditions (e.g. river sensitivity and morphological potential, off-site conditions) and socio-economic constraints. The evaluation of such factors, the analysis of different scenarios, and the selection of appropriate actions require the contextualization of river reaches within a wider spatial-temporal hydromorphological framework. Here we present such a general multiscale, process-based hydromorphological framework, and discuss its application to the problem of how best to analyse and estimate e-flows.

Analysis of Pulsed Flow Modification Alternatives, Lower Missouri River, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.

2008-01-01

The graphical, tabular, and statistical data presented in this report resulted from analysis of alternative flow regime designs considered by a group of Missouri River managers, stakeholders, and scientists during the summer of 2005. This plenary group was charged with designing a flow regime with increased spring flow pulses to support reproduction and survival of the endangered pallid sturgeon. Environmental flow components extracted from the reference natural flow regime were used to design and assess performance of alternative flow regimes. The analysis is based on modeled flow releases from Gavins Point Dam (near Yankton, South Dakota) for nine design alternatives and two reference scenarios; the reference scenarios are the run-of-the-river and the water-control plan implemented in 2004. The alternative designs were developed by the plenary group with the goal of providing pulsed spring flows, while retaining traditional social and economic uses of the river.

Understanding controls on flow permanence in intermittent rivers to aid ecological research: integrating meteorology, geology and land cover

EPA Science Inventory

Intermittent rivers, those channels that periodically cease to flow, constitute over half of the total discharge of the global river network and will likely increase in their extent due to climatic shifts and/or water resources development. Burgeoning research on intermittent riv...

Streamflow and streambed scour in 2010 at bridge 339, Copper River, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conaway, Jeffrey S.; Brabets, Timothy P.

2011-01-01

The distribution of the Copper River's discharge through the bridges was relatively stable until sometime between 1969-70 and 1982-85. The majority of the total Copper River discharge in 1969-70 passed through three bridges on the western side of the delta, but by 1982-1985, 25 to 62 percent of the flow passed through bridge 342 on the eastern side of the Copper River Delta. In 2004, only 8 percent of the flow passed through the western bridges, while 90 percent of the discharge flowed through two bridges on the eastern side of the delta. Migration of the river across the delta and redistribution of discharge has resulted in streambed scour at some bridges, overtopping of the road during high flows, prolonged highway closures, and formation of new channels through forests. Scour monitoring at the eastern bridges has recorded as much as 44 feet of fill at one pier and 33 feet of scour at another. In 2009, flow distribution began to shift from the larger bridge 342 to bridge 339. In 2010, flow in excess of four times the design discharge scoured the streambed at bridge 339 to a level such that constant on-site monitoring was required to evaluate the potential need for bridge closure. In 2010, instantaneous flow through bridge 339 was never less than 30 percent and was as high as 49 percent of the total Copper River discharge. The percentage of flow through bridge 339 decreased when the overall Copper River discharge increased. The increased discharge through bridge 339 is attributed to a shift in the approach channel 3,500 feet upstream. Bridge channel alignment and analysis of flow distribution as of October 2010 indicate these hydrologic hazards will persist in 2011.

Avian community responses to variability in river hydrology.

PubMed

Royan, Alexander; Hannah, David M; Reynolds, S James; Noble, David G; Sadler, Jonathan P

2013-01-01

River flow is a major driver of morphological structure and community dynamics in riverine-floodplain ecosystems. Flow influences in-stream communities through changes in water velocity, depth, temperature, turbidity and nutrient fluxes, and perturbations in the organisation of lower trophic levels are cascaded through the food web, resulting in shifts in food availability for consumer species. River birds are sensitive to spatial and phenological mismatches with aquatic prey following flow disturbances; however, the role of flow as a determinant of riparian ecological structure remains poorly known. This knowledge is crucial to help to predict if, and how, riparian communities will be influenced by climate-induced changes in river flow characterised by more extreme high (i.e. flood) and/or low (i.e. drought) flow events. Here, we combine national-scale datasets of river bird surveys and river flow archives to understand how hydrological disturbance has affected the distribution of riparian species at higher trophic levels. Data were analysed for 71 river locations using a Generalized Additive Model framework and a model averaging procedure. Species had complex but biologically interpretable associations with hydrological indices, with species' responses consistent with their ecology, indicating that hydrological-disturbance has implications for higher trophic levels in riparian food webs. Our quantitative analysis of river flow-bird relationships demonstrates the potential vulnerability of riparian species to the impacts of changing flow variability and represents an important contribution in helping to understand how bird communities might respond to a climate change-induced increase in the intensity of floods and droughts. Moreover, the success in relating parameters of river flow variability to species' distributions highlights the need to include river flow data in climate change impact models of species' distributions.

A novel approach to flow estimation in tidal rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, H. R.; Jay, D. A.; Talke, S. A.; Kukulka, T.; Bromirski, P. D.

2013-08-01

Reliable estimation of river discharge to the ocean from large tidal rivers is vital for water resources management and climate analyses. Due to the difficulties inherent in measuring tidal-river discharge, flow records are often limited in length and/or quality and tidal records often predate discharge records. Tidal theory indicates that tides and river discharge interact through quadratic bed friction, which diminishes and distorts the tidal wave as discharge increases. We use this phenomenon to develop a method of estimating river discharge for time periods with tidal data but no flow record. Employing sequential 32 day harmonic analyses of tidal properties, we calibrate San Francisco (SF), CA tide data to the Sacramento River delta outflow index from 1930 to 1990, and use the resulting relationship to hindcast river flow from 1858 to 1929. The M2 admittance (a ratio of the observed M2 tidal constituent to its astronomical forcing) best reproduces high flows, while low-flow periods are better represented by amplitude ratios based on higher harmonics (e.g.,M4/M22). Results show that the annual inflow to SF Bay is now 30% less than before 1900 and confirm that the flood of January 1862 was the largest since 1858.

Simulation of ground-water flow in the Cedar River alluvial aquifer flow system, Cedar Rapids, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turco, Michael J.; Buchmiller, Robert C.

2004-01-01

Model results indicate that the primary sources of inflow to the modeled area are infiltration from the Cedar River (53.0 percent) and regional flow in the glacial and bedrock materials (34.1 percent). The primary sources of outflow from the modeled area are discharge to the Cedar River (45.4 percent) and pumpage (44.8 percent). Current steady-state pumping rates have increased the flow of water from the Cedar River to the alluvial aquifer by 43.8 cubic feet per second. Steady-state and transient hypothetical pumpage scenarios were used to show the relation between changes in pumpage and changes in infiltration of water from the Cedar River. Results indicate that more than 99 percent of the water discharging from municipal wells infiltrates from the Cedar River, that the time required for induced river recharge to equilibrate with municipal pumpage may be 150 days or more, and that ground-water availability in the Cedar Rapids area will not be significantly affected by doubling current pumpage as long as there is sufficient flow in the Cedar River to provide recharge.

Ground-water flow and simulated effects of development in Paradise Valley, a basin tributary to the Humboldt River in Humboldt County, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prudic, David E.; Herman, M.E.

1996-01-01

A computer model was used to characterize ground-water flow in Paradise Valley, Nevada, and to evaluate probable long-term effects of five hypothetical development scenarios. One finding of the study is that concentrating pumping at the south end of Paradise Valley may increase underflow from the adjacent Humboldt River valley, and might affect flow in the river.

Conditions and processes affecting sand resources at archeological sites in the Colorado River corridor below Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

East, Amy E.; Collins, Brian D.; Sankey, Joel B.; Corbett, Skye C.; Fairley, Helen C.; Caster, Joshua J.

2016-05-17

We conclude that most of the river-corridor archeological sites are at elevated risk of net erosion under present dam operations. In the present flow regime, controlled floods do not simulate the magnitude or frequency of natural floods, and are not large enough to deposit sand at elevations that were flooded at annual to decadal intervals in predam time. For archeological sites that depend upon river-derived sand, we infer elevated erosion risk owing to a combination of reduced sand supply (both fluvial and aeolian) through (1) the lower-than-natural flood magnitude, frequency, and sediment supply of the controlled-flooding protocol; (2) reduction of open, dry sand area available for wind redistribution under current normal (nonflood) dam operations, which do not include flows as low as natural seasonal low flows and do include substantial daily flow fluctuations; and (3) impeded aeolian sand entrainment and transport owing to increased riparian vegetation growth in the absence of larger, more-frequent floods. If dam operations were to increase the supply of sand available for windblown transport—for example, through larger floods, sediment augmentation, or increased fluvial sandbar exposure by low flows—and also decrease riparian vegetation, the prevalence of active aeolian sand could increase over time, and the propensity for unmitigated gully erosion could decrease. Although the evolution of river-corridor landscapes and archeological sites has been altered fundamentally by the lack of large, sediment-rich floods (flows on the order of 5,000 m3/s), some combination of sediment-rich flows above 1,270 m3/s, seasonal flows below 226 m3/s, and riparian-vegetation removal might increase the preservation potential for sand-dependent archeological resources in the Colorado River corridor.

Effects of flow alterations on trout, angling, and recreation in the Chattahoochee River between Buford Dam and Peachtree Creek

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nestler, John M.; Milhouse, Robert T.; Troxel, Jay; Fritschen, Janet A.

1985-01-01

In 1974 county governments in the Atlanta vicinity realized that demands on the Chattahoochee River for water supply plus the streamflow required for water quality nearly equaled the minimum flow in the river. Increased demands for water supply in the following years could not be supplied under the then existing flow regime in the river. In response to the anticipated shortage of water, the Atlanta Regional Commission, a multicounty agency responsible for comprehensive regional planning in the Atlanta region, was contracted to prepare water demand projections to the year 2010 and identify alternatives for meeting projected water demands. The results of this study are published in an extensive final report, the Metropolitan Atlanta Area Water Resources Management Study (1981). Requests for copies should be directed to the District Engineer, Savannah District. Many of the identified alternatives to increase future water supply for the Atlanta area would result in modifications to the present flow regime within the Chattahoochee River between Buford Dam (river mile 348.3) and its confluence with Peachtree Creek (river mile 300.5). The present preferred alternative is construction of a reregulation dam at about river mile 342. The proposed reregulation dam would release a much more constant flow than the peaking flows presently released from Buford Dam (generally, a maximum release of approximately 9000 cfs or minimum release of about 550 cfs) by storing the generation releases from Buford Dam for gradual release during non-generation periods. The anticipated minimum release from the rereg dam would he approximately 1U5U cfs (based on contractual obligations to the Southeast Power Administration to supply a minimum of 11 hours of peaking power per week from Buford Dam). The average annual release from the proposed reregulation dam into the Chattahoochee River would be approximately 2000 cfs (based on USGS flow records) and the median release would he approximately 1500 cfs (value obtained from Savannah District). The proposed reregulation dam would have sufficient storage to provide some opportunity for flow management to optimize uses other than water supply and water quality. Flow modifications (and resultant water quality changes) within this reach of the Chattahoochee River to meet increased demands for water supply may have an effect on other beneficial uses of this important natural resource. In addition to supplying a significant proportion of the water supply for metropolitan Atlanta and providing for water quality, the Chattahoochee River also is used extensively for recreation and supports a valuable trout fishery. Altered flows in the channel to meet water supply needs may have an impact on river recreation and trout habitat.

Quantifying habitat benefits of channel reconfigurations on a highly regulated river system, Lower Missouri River, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, Susannah O.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Elliott, Caroline M.

2017-01-01

We present a quantitative analysis of habitat availability in a highly regulated lowland river, comparing a restored reach with two reference reaches: an un-restored, channelized reach, and a least-altered reach. We evaluate the effects of channel modifications in terms of distributions of depth and velocity as well as distributions and availability of habitats thought to be supportive of an endangered fish, the pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). It has been hypothesized that hydraulic conditions that support food production and foraging may limit growth and survival of juvenile pallid sturgeon. To evaluate conditions that support these habitats, we constructed two-dimensional hydrodynamic models for the three study reaches, two located in the Lower Missouri River (channelized and restored reaches) and one in the Yellowstone River (least-altered reach). Comparability among the reaches was improved by scaling by bankfull discharge and bankfull channel area. The analysis shows that construction of side-channel chutes and increased floodplain connectivity increase the availability of foraging habitat, resulting in a system that is more similar to the reference reach on the Yellowstone River. The availability of food-producing habitat is low in all reaches at flows less than bankfull, but the two reaches in the Lower Missouri River – channelized and restored – display a threshold-like response as flows overtop channel banks, reflecting the persistent effects of channelization on hydraulics in the main channel. These high lateral gradients result in punctuated ecological events corresponding to flows in excess of bankfull discharge. This threshold effect in the restored reach remains distinct from that of the least-altered reference reach, where hydraulic changes are less abrupt and overbank flows more gradually inundate the adjacent floodplain. The habitat curves observed in the reference reach on the Yellowstone River may not be attainable within the channelized system on the Missouri River, but the documented hydraulic patterns can be used to inform ongoing channel modifications. Although scaling to bankfull dimensions and discharges provides a basis for comparing the three reaches, implementation of the reference reach concept was complicated by differences in flow-frequency distributions among sites. In particular, habitat availability in the least-altered Yellowstone River reach is affected by increased frequency of low-flow events (less than 0.5 times bankfull flow) and moderately high-flow events (greater than 1.5 times bankfull flow) compared to downstream reaches on the Lower Missouri River.

An ecological economic assessment of flow regimes in a hydropower dominated river basin: the case of the lower Zambezi River, Mozambique.

PubMed

Fanaian, Safa; Graas, Susan; Jiang, Yong; van der Zaag, Pieter

2015-02-01

The flow regime of rivers, being an integral part of aquatic ecosystems, provides many important services benefiting humans in catchments. Past water resource developments characterized by river embankments and dams, however, were often dominated by one (or few) economic use(s) of water. This results in a dramatically changed flow regime negatively affecting the provision of other ecosystem services sustained by the river flow. This study is intended to demonstrate the value of alternative flow regimes in a river that is highly modified by the presence of large hydropower dams and reservoirs, explicitly accounting for a broad range of flow-dependent ecosystem services. In this study, we propose a holistic approach for conducting an ecological economic assessment of a river's flow regime. This integrates recent advances in the conceptualization and classification of ecosystem services (UK NEA, 2011) with the flow regime evaluation technique developed by Korsgaard (2006). This integrated approach allows for a systematic comparison of the economic values of alternative flow regimes, including those that are considered beneficial for aquatic ecosystems. As an illustration, we applied this combined approach to the Lower Zambezi Basin, Mozambique. Empirical analysis shows that even though re-operating dams to create environmentally friendly flow regimes reduces hydropower benefits, the gains to goods derived from the aquatic ecosystem may offset the forgone hydropower benefits, thereby increasing the total economic value of river flow to society. The proposed integrated flow assessment approach can be a useful tool for welfare-improving decision-making in managing river basins. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, Bradley; Overpeck, Jonathan

2017-03-01

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906-1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906-1999 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively -20% by midcentury and -35% by end-century, with support for losses exceeding -30% at midcentury and -55% at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.