Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkes, Ben; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui

2018-02-01

The ability of a region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is an important issue. The West African population is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of crops to short-term climate change is critical to the population and the decision makers tasked with food security. This leads to three questions: how will crop yields change in the near future? What influence will climate change have on crop failures? Which adaptation methods should be employed to ameliorate undesirable changes? An ensemble of near-term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic period (1986-2005) and a near-term future when global temperatures are 1.5 K above pre-industrial levels to assess the change in yield, yield variability and crop failure rate. Four crop models were used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the historic and future climates. Across the majority of West Africa the maize, millet and sorghum yields are shown to fall. In the regions where yields increase, the variability also increases. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond 1 standard deviation during the historic period. The increasing variability increases the frequency of crop failures across West Africa. The return time of crop failures falls from 8.8, 9.7 and 10.1 years to 5.2, 6.3 and 5.8 years for maize, millet and sorghum respectively. The adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model as an idealized sensitivity test. The generalized doption of a cultivar resistant to high-temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting.

Replacing fallow with continuous cropping reduces crop water productivity of semiarid wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water supply frequently limits crop yield in semiarid cropping systems; water deficits can restrict yields in drought-affected subhumid regions. In semiarid wheat (Triticum aestivumL.)-based cropping systems, replacing an uncropped fallow period with a crop can increase precipitation use efficiency ...

Food Crops Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, E.; Huybers, P.

2009-12-01

Projections of future climate show a warming world and heterogeneous changes in precipitation. Generally, warming temperatures indicate a decrease in crop yields where they are currently grown. However, warmer climate will also open up new areas at high latitudes for crop production. Thus, there is a question whether the warmer climate with decreased yields but potentially increased growing area will produce a net increase or decrease of overall food crop production. We explore this question through a multiple linear regression model linking temperature and precipitation to crop yield. Prior studies have emphasised temporal regression which indicate uniformly decreased yields, but neglect the potentially increased area opened up for crop production. This study provides a compliment to the prior work by exploring this spatial variation. We explore this subject with a multiple linear regression model from temperature, precipitation and crop yield data over the United States. The United States was chosen as the training region for the model because there are good crop data available over the same time frame as climate data and presumably the yield from crops in the United States is optimized with respect to potential yield. We study corn, soybeans, sorghum, hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat using monthly averages of temperature and precipitation from NCEP reanalysis and yearly yield data from the National Agriculture Statistics Service for 1948-2008. The use of monthly averaged temperature and precipitation, which neglect extreme events that can have a significant impact on crops limits this study as does the exclusive use of United States agricultural data. The GFDL 2.1 model under a 720ppm CO2 scenario provides temperature and precipitation fields for 2040-2100 which are used to explore how the spatial regions available for crop production will change under these new conditions.

Long-term Tillage and Cropping Sequence Effect on Dryland Crop Yields and Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improved management practices are needed to increase dryland crop yields and soil organic matter compared with conventional farming practices in the northern Great Plains. We evaluated the 21-yr effect of tillage and cropping sequence on dryland grain and biomass (stems + leaves) yields and N uptake...

[Main interspecific competition and land productivity of fruit-crop intercropping in Loess Region of West Shauxi].

PubMed

Yun, Lei; Bi, Hua-Xing; Tian, Xiao-Ling; Cui, Zhe-Wei; Zhou, Hui-Zi; Gao, Lu-Bo; Liu, Li-Xia

2011-05-01

Taking the four typical fruit-crop intercropping models, i.e., walnut-peanut, walnut-soybean, apple-peanut, and apple-soybean, in the Loess Region of western Shanxi Province as the objects, this paper analyzed the crop (peanut and soybean) photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), net photosynthetic rate (P(n)), yield, and soil moisture content. Comparing with crop monoculture, fruit-crop intercropping decreased the crop PAR and P(n). The smaller the distance from tree rows, the smaller the crop PAR and P(n). There was a significantly positive correlation between the P(n) and crop yield, suggesting that illumination was one of the key factors affecting crop yield. From the whole trend, the 0-100 cm soil moisture content had no significant differences between walnut-crop intercropping systems and corresponding monoculture cropping systems, but had significant differences between apple-crop intercropping systems and corresponding monoculture cropping systems, indicating that the competition for soil moisture was more intense in apple-crop intercropping systems than in walnut-crop intercropping systems. Comparing with monoculture, fruit-crop intercropping increased the land use efficiency and economic benefit averagely by 70% and 14%, respectively, and walnut-crop intercropping was much better than apple-crop intercropping. To increase the crop yield in fruit-crop intercropping systems, the following strategies should be taken: strengthening the management of irrigation and fertilization, increasing the distances or setting root barriers between crop and tree rows, regularly and properly pruning, and planting shade-tolerant crops in intercropping.

Engineering crop nutrient efficiency for sustainable agriculture.

PubMed

Chen, Liyu; Liao, Hong

2017-10-01

Increasing crop yields can provide food, animal feed, bioenergy feedstocks and biomaterials to meet increasing global demand; however, the methods used to increase yield can negatively affect sustainability. For example, application of excess fertilizer can generate and maintain high yields but also increases input costs and contributes to environmental damage through eutrophication, soil acidification and air pollution. Improving crop nutrient efficiency can improve agricultural sustainability by increasing yield while decreasing input costs and harmful environmental effects. Here, we review the mechanisms of nutrient efficiency (primarily for nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and iron) and breeding strategies for improving this trait, along with the role of regulation of gene expression in enhancing crop nutrient efficiency to increase yields. We focus on the importance of root system architecture to improve nutrient acquisition efficiency, as well as the contributions of mineral translocation, remobilization and metabolic efficiency to nutrient utilization efficiency. © 2017 Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Crop response to deep tillage - a meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Florian; Don, Axel; Hennings, Inga; Schmittmann, Oliver; Seidel, Sabine J.

2017-04-01

Subsoil, i.e. the soil layer below the topsoil, stores tremendous stocks of nutrients and can keep water even under drought conditions. Deep tillage may be a method to enhance the plant-availability of subsoil resources. However, in field trials, deep tillage effects on crop yields were inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis of crop yield response to subsoiling, deep ploughing and deep mixing of soil profiles. Our search resulted in 1530 yield comparisons following deep and conventional control tillage on 67 experimental cropping sites. The vast majority of the data derived from temperate latitudes, from trials conducted in the USA (679 observations) and Germany (630 observations). On average, crop yield response to deep tillage was slightly positive (6% increase). However, individual deep tillage effects were highly scattered including about 40% yield depressions after deep tillage. Deep tillage on soils with root restrictive layers increased crop yields about 20%, while soils containing >70% silt increased the risk of yield depressions following deep tillage. Generally, deep tillage effects increased with drought intensity indicating deep tillage as climate adaptation measure at certain sites. Our results suggest that deep tillage can facilitate the plant-availability of subsoil nutrients, which increases crop yields if (i) nutrients in the topsoil are growth limiting, and (ii) deep tillage does not come at the cost of impairing topsoil fertility. On sites with root restrictive soil layers, deep tillage can be an effective measure to mitigate drought stress and improve the resilience of crops. However, deep tillage should only be performed on soils with a stable structure, i.e. <70% silt content. We will discuss the contribution of deep tillage options to enhance the sustainability of agricultural production by facilitating the uptake of nutrients and water from the subsoil.

Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation.

PubMed

Ray, Deepak K; Ramankutty, Navin; Mueller, Nathaniel D; West, Paul C; Foley, Jonathan A

2012-01-01

In the coming decades, continued population growth, rising meat and dairy consumption and expanding biofuel use will dramatically increase the pressure on global agriculture. Even as we face these future burdens, there have been scattered reports of yield stagnation in the world's major cereal crops, including maize, rice and wheat. Here we study data from ∼2.5 million census observations across the globe extending over the period 1961-2008. We examined the trends in crop yields for four key global crops: maize, rice, wheat and soybeans. Although yields continue to increase in many areas, we find that across 24-39% of maize-, rice-, wheat- and soybean-growing areas, yields either never improve, stagnate or collapse. This result underscores the challenge of meeting increasing global agricultural demands. New investments in underperforming regions, as well as strategies to continue increasing yields in the high-performing areas, are required.

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe;

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

PubMed Central

Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold

2017-01-01

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population. PMID:28811375

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

PubMed

Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Peñuelas, Josep; Ruane, Alex C; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold

2017-08-29

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO 2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Changes in rainfed and irrigated crop yield response to climate in the western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Troy, T. J.

2018-06-01

As the global population increases and the climate changes, ensuring a secure food supply is increasingly important. One strategy is irrigation, which allows for crops to be grown outside their optimal climate growing regions and which buffers against climate variability. Although irrigation is a positive climate adaptation mechanism for agriculture, it has a potentially negative effect on water resources as it can lead to groundwater depletion and diminished surface water supplies. This study quantifies how crop yields are affected by climate variability and extremes and the impact of irrigation on crop yield increases under various growing-season climate conditions. To do this, we use historical climate data and county-level rainfed and irrigated crop yields for maize, soybean, winter and spring wheat over the US to analyze the relationship between climate, crop yields, and irrigation. We find that there are optimal climates, specific to each crop, where irrigation provides a benefit and other conditions where irrigation proves to have marginal, if any, benefits. Furthermore, the relationship between crop yields and climate has changed over the last decades, with a changing sensitivity in the relationship of soybean and winter wheat yields to certain climate variables, like crop reference evapotranspiration. These two conclusions have important implications for agricultural and water resource system planning, as it implies there are more optimal climate conditions where irrigation is particularly productive and regions where irrigation should be reconsidered as there is not a significant agricultural benefit and the water could be used more productively.

Progress and Challenges in Predicting Crop Responses to Atmospheric [CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kent, J.; Paustian, K.

2017-12-01

Increasing atmospheric [CO2] directly accelerates photosynthesis in C3 crops, and indirectly promotes yields by reducing stomatal conductance and associated water losses in C3 and C4 crops. Several decades of experiments have exposed crops to eCO2 in greenhouses and other enclosures and observed yield increases on the order of 33%. FACE systems were developed in the early 1990s to better replicate open-field growing conditions. Some authors contend that FACE results indicate lower crop yield responses than enclosure studies, while others maintain no significant difference or attribute differences to various methodological factors. The crop CO2 response processes in many crop models were developed using results from enclosure experiments. This work tested the ability of one such model, DayCent, to reproduce crop responses to CO2 enrichment from several FACE experiments. DayCent performed well at simulating yield and transpiration responses in C4 crops, but significantly overestimated yield responses in C3 crops. After adjustment of CO2-response parameters, DayCent was able to reproduce mean yield responses for specific crops. However, crop yield responses from FACE experiments vary widely across years and sites, and likely reflect complex interactions between conditions such as weather, soils, cultivars, and biotic stressors. Further experimental work is needed to identify the secondary variables that explain this variability so that models can more reliably forecast crop yields under climate change. Likewise, CO2 impacts on crop outcomes such as belowground biomass allocation and grain N content have implications for agricultural C fluxes and human nutrition, respectively, but are poorly understood and thus difficult to simulate with confidence.

Elucidating the impact of temperature variability and extremes on cereal croplands through remote sensing.

PubMed

Duncan, John M A; Dash, Jadunandan; Atkinson, Peter M

2015-04-01

Remote sensing-derived wheat crop yield-climate models were developed to highlight the impact of temperature variation during thermo-sensitive periods (anthesis and grain-filling; TSP) of wheat crop development. Specific questions addressed are: can the impact of temperature variation occurring during the TSP on wheat crop yield be detected using remote sensing data and what is the impact? Do crop critical temperature thresholds during TSP exist in real world cropping landscapes? These questions are tested in one of the world's major wheat breadbaskets of Punjab and Haryana, north-west India. Warming average minimum temperatures during the TSP had a greater negative impact on wheat crop yield than warming maximum temperatures. Warming minimum and maximum temperatures during the TSP explain a greater amount of variation in wheat crop yield than average growing season temperature. In complex real world cereal croplands there was a variable yield response to critical temperature threshold exceedance, specifically a more pronounced negative impact on wheat yield with increased warming events above 35 °C. The negative impact of warming increases with a later start-of-season suggesting earlier sowing can reduce wheat crop exposure harmful temperatures. However, even earlier sown wheat experienced temperature-induced yield losses, which, when viewed in the context of projected warming up to 2100 indicates adaptive responses should focus on increasing wheat tolerance to heat. This study shows it is possible to capture the impacts of temperature variation during the TSP on wheat crop yield in real world cropping landscapes using remote sensing data; this has important implications for monitoring the impact of climate change, variation and heat extremes on wheat croplands. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using FACE systems to screen wheat cultivars for yield increases at elevated CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Because of continuing increases in atmospheric CO2, identifying cultivars of crops with larger yield increases at elevated CO2 may provide an avenue to increase crop yield potential in future climates. Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) systems have most often been used with multiple replications of ea...

Tradeoffs between vigor and yield for crops grown under different management systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simic Milas, Anita; Keller Vincent, Robert; Romanko, Matthew; Feitl, Melina; Rupasinghe, Prabha

2016-04-01

Remote sensing can provide an effective means for rapid and non-destructive monitoring of crop status and biochemistry. Monitoring pattern of traditional vigor algorithms generated from Landsat 8 OLI satellite data represents a robust method that can be widely used to differentiate the status of crops, as well as to monitor nutrient uptake functionality of differently treated seeds grown under different managements. This study considers 24 factorial parcels of winter wheat in 2013, corn in 2014, and soybeans in 2015, grown under four different types of agricultural management. The parcels are located at the Kellogg Biological Station, Long-Term Ecological Research site in the State of Michigan USA. At maturity, the organic crops exhibit significantly higher vigor and significantly lower yield than conventionally managed crops under different treatments. While organic crops invest in their metabolism at the expense of their yield, the conventional crops manage to increase their yield at the expense of their vigor. Landsat 8 OLI is capable of 1) differentiating the biochemical status of crops under different treatments at maturity, and 2) monitoring the tradeoff between crop yield and vigor that can be controlled by the seed treatments and proper conventional applications, with the ultimate goal of increasing food yield and food availability, and 3) distinguishing between organic and conventionally treated crops. Timing, quantity and types of herbicide applications have a great impact on early and pre-harvest vigor, maturity and yield of conventionally treated crops. Satellite monitoring using Landsat 8 is an optimal tool for coordinating agricultural applications, soil practices and genetic coding of the crop to produce higher yield as well as have early crop maturity, desirable in northern climates.

Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battisti, R.; Sentelhas, P. C.; Boote, K. J.

2017-12-01

Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO2] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha-1 for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO2] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO2.

Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battisti, R.; Sentelhas, P. C.; Boote, K. J.

2018-05-01

Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO2] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha-1 for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO2] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO2.

How changes of climate extremes affect summer and winter crop yields and water productivity in the southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, D.; Cammarano, D.

2017-12-01

Modeling changes of crop production at regional scale is important to make adaptation measures for sustainably food supply under global change. In this study, we explore how changing climate extremes in the 20th and 21st century affect maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) yields in an agriculturally important region: the southeast United States. We analyze historical (1950-1999) and projected (2006-2055) precipitation and temperature extremes by calculating the changes of 18 climate extreme indices using the statistically downscaled CMIP5 data from 10 general circulation models (GCMs). To evaluate how these climate extremes affect maize and wheat yields, historical baseline and projected maize and wheat yields under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are simulated using the DSSAT-CERES maize and wheat models driven by the same downscaled GCMs data. All of the changes are examined at 110 locations over the study region. The results show that most of the precipitation extreme indices do not have notable change; mean precipitation, precipitation intensity, and maximum 1-day precipitation are generally increased; the number of rainy days is decreased. The temperature extreme indices mostly showed increased values on mean temperature, number of high temperature days, diurnal temperature range, consecutive high temperature days, maximum daily maximum temperature, and minimum daily minimum temperature; the number of low temperature days and number of consecutive low temperature days are decreased. The conditional probabilistic relationships between changes in crop yields and changes in extreme indices suggested different responses of crop yields to climate extremes during sowing to anthesis and anthesis to maturity periods. Wheat yields and crop water productivity for wheat are increased due to an increased CO2 concentration and minimum temperature; evapotranspiration, maize yields, and crop water productivity for wheat are decreased owing to the increased temperature extremes. We found the effects of precipitation changes on both yields are relatively uncertain.

Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Ed; Fricker, Thomas E; Challinor, Andrew J; Ferro, Christopher A T; Kit Ho, Chun; Osborne, Tom M

2013-01-01

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target. PMID:23504849

Crop Diversity for Yield Increase

PubMed Central

Li, Chengyun; He, Xiahong; Zhu, Shusheng; Zhou, Huiping; Wang, Yunyue; Li, Yan; Yang, Jing; Fan, Jinxiang; Yang, Jincheng; Wang, Guibin; Long, Yunfu; Xu, Jiayou; Tang, Yongsheng; Zhao, Gaohui; Yang, Jianrong; Liu, Lin; Sun, Yan; Xie, Yong; Wang, Haining; Zhu, Youyong

2009-01-01

Traditional farming practices suggest that cultivation of a mixture of crop species in the same field through temporal and spatial management may be advantageous in boosting yields and preventing disease, but evidence from large-scale field testing is limited. Increasing crop diversity through intercropping addresses the problem of increasing land utilization and crop productivity. In collaboration with farmers and extension personnel, we tested intercropping of tobacco, maize, sugarcane, potato, wheat and broad bean – either by relay cropping or by mixing crop species based on differences in their heights, and practiced these patterns on 15,302 hectares in ten counties in Yunnan Province, China. The results of observation plots within these areas showed that some combinations increased crop yields for the same season between 33.2 and 84.7% and reached a land equivalent ratio (LER) of between 1.31 and 1.84. This approach can be easily applied in developing countries, which is crucial in face of dwindling arable land and increasing food demand. PMID:19956624

Crop yield response to increasing biochar rates

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The benefit or detriment to crop yield from biochar application varies with biochar type/rate, soil, crop, or climate. The objective of this research was to identify yield response of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), corn (Zea mayes L.), and peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) to hardwood biochar applied at...

Soil properties, greenhouse gas emissions and crop yield under compost, biochar and co-composted biochar in two tropical agronomic systems.

PubMed

Bass, Adrian M; Bird, Michael I; Kay, Gavin; Muirhead, Brian

2016-04-15

The addition of organic amendments to agricultural soils has the potential to increase crop yields, reduce dependence on inorganic fertilizers and improve soil condition and resilience. We evaluated the effect of biochar (B), compost (C) and co-composted biochar (COMBI) on the soil properties, crop yield and greenhouse gas emissions from a banana and a papaya plantation in tropical Australia in the first harvest cycle. Biochar, compost and COMBI organic amendments improved soil properties, including significant increases in soil water content, CEC, K, Ca, NO3, NH4 and soil carbon content. However, increases in soil nutrient content and improvements in physical properties did not translate to improved fruit yield. Counter to our expectations, banana crop yield (weight per bunch) was reduced by 18%, 12% and 24% by B, C and COMBI additions respectively, and no significant effect was observed on the papaya crop yield. Soil efflux of CO2 was elevated by addition of C and COMBI amendments, likely due to an increase in labile carbon for microbial processing. Our data indicate a reduction in N2O flux in treatments containing biochar. The application of B, C and COMBI amendments had a generally positive effect on soil properties, but this did not translate into a crop productivity increase in this study. The benefits to soil nutrient content, soil carbon storage and N2O emission reduction need to be carefully weighed against potentially deleterious effects on crop yield, at least in the short-term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Productivity and sustainability of rainfed wheat-soybean system in the North China Plain: results from a long-term experiment and crop modelling

PubMed Central

Qin, Wei; Wang, Daozhong; Guo, Xisheng; Yang, Taiming; Oenema, Oene

2015-01-01

A quantitative understanding of yield response to water and nutrients is key to improving the productivity and sustainability of rainfed cropping systems. Here, we quantified the effects of rainfall, fertilization (NPK) and soil organic amendments (with straw and manure) on yields of a rainfed wheat-soybean system in the North China Plain (NCP), using 30-years’ field experimental data (1982–2012) and the simulation model-AquaCrop. On average, wheat and soybean yields were 5 and 2.5 times higher in the fertilized treatments than in the unfertilized control (CK), respectively. Yields of fertilized treatments increased and yields of CK decreased over time. NPK + manure increased yields more than NPK alone or NPK + straw. The additional effect of manure is likely due to increased availability of K and micronutrients. Wheat yields were limited by rainfall and can be increased through soil mulching (15%) or irrigation (35%). In conclusion, combined applications of fertilizer NPK and manure were more effective in sustaining high crop yields than recommended fertilizer NPK applications. Manure applications led to strong accumulation of NPK and relatively low NPK use efficiencies. Water deficiency in wheat increased over time due to the steady increase in yields, suggesting that the need for soil mulching increases. PMID:26627707

Mapping Crop Yield and Sow Date Using High Resolution Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royal, K.

2015-12-01

Keitasha Royal, Meha Jain, Ph.D., David Lobell, Ph.D Mapping Crop Yield and Sow Date Using High Resolution ImageryThe use of satellite imagery in agriculture is becoming increasingly more significant and valuable. Due to the emergence of new satellites, such as Skybox, these satellites provide higher resolution imagery (e.g 1m) therefore improving the ability to map smallholder agriculture. For the smallholder farm dominated area of northern India, Skybox high-resolution satellite imagery can aid in understanding how to improve farm yields. In particular, we are interested in mapping winter wheat in India, as this region produces approximately 80% of the country's wheat crop, which is important given that wheat is a staple crop that provides approximately 20% of household calories. In northeast India, the combination of increased heat stress, limited irrigation access, and the difficulty for farmers to access advanced farming technologies results in farmers only producing about 50% of their potential crop yield. The use of satellite imagery can aid in understanding wheat yields through time and help identify ways to increase crop yields in the wheat belt of India. To translate Skybox satellite data into meaningful information about wheat fields, we examine vegetation indices, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), to measure the "greenness" of plants to help determine the health of the crops. We test our ability to predict crop characteristics, like sow date and yield, using vegetation indices of 59 fields for which we have field data in Bihar, India.

Management of Lesion Nematodes and Potato Early Dying with Rotation Crops

PubMed Central

LaMondia, J.A.

2006-01-01

Soil-incorporated rotation/green manure crops were evaluated for management of potato early dying caused by Verticillium dahliae and Pratylenchus penetrans. After two years of rotation/green manure and a subsequent potato crop, P. penetrans numbers were less after ‘Saia’ oat/‘Polynema’ marigold, ‘Triple S’ sorghum-sudangrass, or ‘Garry’ oat than ‘Superior’ potato or ‘Humus’ rapeseed. The area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) for early dying was lowest after Saia oat/marigold, and tuber yields were greater than continuous potato after all crops except sorghum-sudangrass. Saia oat/marigold crops resulted in the greatest tuber yields. After one year of rotation/green manure, a marigold crop increased tuber yields and reduced AUDPC and P. penetrans. In the second potato crop after a single year of rotation, plots previously planted to marigolds had reduced P. penetrans densities and AUDPC and increased tuber yield. Rapeseed supported more P. penetrans than potato, but had greater yields. After two years of rotation/green manure crops and a subsequent potato crop, continuous potato had the highest AUDPC and lowest tuber weight. Rotation with Saia oats (2 yr) and Rudbeckia hirta (1 yr) reduced P. penetrans and increased tuber yields. AUDPC was lowest after R. hirta. Two years of sorghum-sudangrass did not affect P. penetrans, tuber yield or AUDPC. These results demonstrate that P. penetrans may be reduced by one or two years of rotation to non-host or antagonistic plants such as Saia oat, Polynema marigold, or R. hirta and that nematode control may reduce the severity of potato early dying. PMID:19259461

Land Husbandry: Biochar application to reduce land degradation and erosion on cassava production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuniwati, E. D.

2017-12-01

This field experiment was carried out to examine the effect of increasing crop yield on land degradation and erosion in cassava-based cropping systems. The experiment was also aimed at showing that with proper crop management, the planting of cassava does not result in land degradation, and therefore, a sustainable production system can be obtained. The experiment was done in a farmer's fields in Batu, about 15 km south east of Malang, East Java, Indonesia. The soils are Alfisols with a surface slope of about 8%. There were 8 experimental treatments with two replications. The experiment results show that biochar applications reduce of soil erosion rate of the cassava field were not necessarily higher than those of maize in terms of crop yield and crop management. At low-to-medium yield, also observed the nutrient uptake of cassava was lower than that of maize. At high yield, only the K uptake of cassava was higher than that of maize, whereas the N and P uptake was more or less similar. Soil erosion on the cassava field was significantly higher than that on the maize field; however, this only occurred when there was no suitable crop management. Simple crop managements, such as ridging, biochar application, or manure application could significantly reduce soil erosion. The results also revealed that proper management could prevent land degradation and increase crop yield. In turn, the increase in crop yield could decrease soil erosion and plant nutrient depletion.

Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Tao, Fulu

2018-05-01

A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106-2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop-Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (-1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food security in China. Moreover, although the variability of crop yield would increase from 1.5 °C warming to 2.0 °C warming, the probability of a crop yield decrease would decrease. Our findings highlight that the 2.0 °C warming scenario would be more suitable for crop production in China, but more attention should be paid to the expected increase in extreme event impacts.

Impacts of enhanced fertilizer applications on tropospheric ozone and crop damage over sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yaoxian; Hickman, Jonathan E.; Wu, Shiliang

2018-05-01

Fertilizer-induced nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to increase substantially in the coming decades, driven by increasing application of fertilizers to increase crop yields in an effort to attain food security across the continent. In many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, surface ozone (O3) is sensitive to increasing atmospheric concentrations of NOx. In this study, we employ the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to conduct a preliminary investigation of the impacts on O3 air quality and the consequential crop damage associated with increasing fertilizer-induced NOx emissions in sub-Saharan Africa. Our simulation results, constrained by field NO flux measurements for the years 2011 and 2012 in response to a variety of fertilizer application rates in western Kenya, show that the enhancements in NO flux with fertilizer application rate of 150 kg N ha-1 can increase surface NOx and O3 concentrations by up to 0.36 and 2.8 ppbv respectively during the growing season. At the same time, accumulated O3 exposure during the crop growing season (expressed as AOT40 values) could increase by up to 496 ppb h, leading to crop yield decline of about 0.8% for O3-sensitive crops. Our results suggest that, when accounting for the consequential impacts on surface O3 air quality and crop damage over sub-Saharan Africa, agricultural intensification is possible without substantial impacts on crop productivity because the relatively small decline of crop yield resulting from O3 damage appears unlikely to outweigh the gain in crop yield from fertilization.

Cover crops support ecological intensification of arable cropping systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittwer, Raphaël A.; Dorn, Brigitte; Jossi, Werner; van der Heijden, Marcel G. A.

2017-02-01

A major challenge for agriculture is to enhance productivity with minimum impact on the environment. Several studies indicate that cover crops could replace anthropogenic inputs and enhance crop productivity. However, so far, it is unclear if cover crop effects vary between different cropping systems, and direct comparisons among major arable production systems are rare. Here we compared the short-term effects of various cover crops on crop yield, nitrogen uptake, and weed infestation in four arable production systems (conventional cropping with intensive tillage and no-tillage; organic cropping with intensive tillage and reduced tillage). We hypothesized that cover cropping effects increase with decreasing management intensity. Our study demonstrated that cover crop effects on crop yield were highest in the organic system with reduced tillage (+24%), intermediate in the organic system with tillage (+13%) and in the conventional system with no tillage (+8%) and lowest in the conventional system with tillage (+2%). Our results indicate that cover crops are essential to maintaining a certain yield level when soil tillage intensity is reduced (e.g. under conservation agriculture), or when production is converted to organic agriculture. Thus, the inclusion of cover crops provides additional opportunities to increase the yield of lower intensity production systems and contribute to ecological intensification.

Analysis of a large dataset of mycorrhiza inoculation field trials on potato shows highly significant increases in yield.

PubMed

Hijri, Mohamed

2016-04-01

An increasing human population requires more food production in nutrient-efficient systems in order to simultaneously meet global food needs while reducing the environmental footprint of agriculture. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) have the potential to enhance crop yield, but their efficiency has yet to be demonstrated in large-scale crop production systems. This study reports an analysis of a dataset consisting of 231 field trials in which the same AMF inoculant (Rhizophagus irregularis DAOM 197198) was applied to potato over a 4-year period in North America and Europe under authentic field conditions. The inoculation was performed using a liquid suspension of AMF spores that was sprayed onto potato seed pieces, yielding a calculated 71 spores per seed piece. Statistical analysis showed a highly significant increase in marketable potato yield (ANOVA, P < 0.0001) for inoculated fields (42.2 tons/ha) compared with non-inoculated controls (38.3 tons/ha), irrespective of trial year. The average yield increase was 3.9 tons/ha, representing 9.5 % of total crop yield. Inoculation was profitable with a 0.67-tons/ha increase in yield, a threshold reached in almost 79 % of all trials. This finding clearly demonstrates the benefits of mycorrhizal-based inoculation on crop yield, using potato as a case study. Further improvements of these beneficial inoculants will help compensate for crop production deficits, both now and in the future.

Commercial Crop Yields Reveal Strengths and Weaknesses for Organic Agriculture in the United States.

PubMed

Kniss, Andrew R; Savage, Steven D; Jabbour, Randa

2016-01-01

Land area devoted to organic agriculture has increased steadily over the last 20 years in the United States, and elsewhere around the world. A primary criticism of organic agriculture is lower yield compared to non-organic systems. Previous analyses documenting the yield deficiency in organic production have relied mostly on data generated under experimental conditions, but these studies do not necessarily reflect the full range of innovation or practical limitations that are part of commercial agriculture. The analysis we present here offers a new perspective, based on organic yield data collected from over 10,000 organic farmers representing nearly 800,000 hectares of organic farmland. We used publicly available data from the United States Department of Agriculture to estimate yield differences between organic and conventional production methods for the 2014 production year. Similar to previous work, organic crop yields in our analysis were lower than conventional crop yields for most crops. Averaged across all crops, organic yield averaged 67% of conventional yield [corrected]. However, several crops had no significant difference in yields between organic and conventional production, and organic yields surpassed conventional yields for some hay crops. The organic to conventional yield ratio varied widely among crops, and in some cases, among locations within a crop. For soybean (Glycine max) and potato (Solanum tuberosum), organic yield was more similar to conventional yield in states where conventional yield was greatest. The opposite trend was observed for barley (Hordeum vulgare), wheat (Triticum aestevum), and hay crops, however, suggesting the geographical yield potential has an inconsistent effect on the organic yield gap.

Commercial Crop Yields Reveal Strengths and Weaknesses for Organic Agriculture in the United States

PubMed Central

Savage, Steven D.; Jabbour, Randa

2016-01-01

Land area devoted to organic agriculture has increased steadily over the last 20 years in the United States, and elsewhere around the world. A primary criticism of organic agriculture is lower yield compared to non-organic systems. Previous analyses documenting the yield deficiency in organic production have relied mostly on data generated under experimental conditions, but these studies do not necessarily reflect the full range of innovation or practical limitations that are part of commercial agriculture. The analysis we present here offers a new perspective, based on organic yield data collected from over 10,000 organic farmers representing nearly 800,000 hectares of organic farmland. We used publicly available data from the United States Department of Agriculture to estimate yield differences between organic and conventional production methods for the 2014 production year. Similar to previous work, organic crop yields in our analysis were lower than conventional crop yields for most crops. Averaged across all crops, organic yield averaged 80% of conventional yield. However, several crops had no significant difference in yields between organic and conventional production, and organic yields surpassed conventional yields for some hay crops. The organic to conventional yield ratio varied widely among crops, and in some cases, among locations within a crop. For soybean (Glycine max) and potato (Solanum tuberosum), organic yield was more similar to conventional yield in states where conventional yield was greatest. The opposite trend was observed for barley (Hordeum vulgare), wheat (Triticum aestevum), and hay crops, however, suggesting the geographical yield potential has an inconsistent effect on the organic yield gap. PMID:27552217

Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions.

PubMed

Harrison, Matthew T; Tardieu, François; Dong, Zhanshan; Messina, Carlos D; Hammer, Graeme L

2014-03-01

Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought-stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis-silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought-stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low-stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late-season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO2 on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis-silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought-stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early-terminal drought stress. Segregating drought-stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought-stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for studies examining genetic and physiological crop responses to environmental stresses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Crop yields response to water pressures in the Ebro basin in Spain: risk and water policy implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Fernández-Haddad, Z.; Iglesias, A.

2011-02-01

The increasing pressure on water systems in the Mediterranean enhances existing water conflicts and threatens water supply for agriculture. In this context, one of the main priorities for agricultural research and public policy is the adaptation of crop yields to water pressures. This paper focuses on the evaluation of hydrological risk and water policy implications for food production. Our methodological approach includes four steps. For the first step, we estimate the impacts of rainfall and irrigation water on crop yields. However, this study is not limited to general crop production functions since it also considers the linkages between those economic and biophysical aspects which may have an important effect on crop productivity. We use statistical models of yield response to address how hydrological variables affect the yield of the main Mediterranean crops in the Ebro river basin. In the second step, this study takes into consideration the effects of those interactions and analyzes gross value added sensitivity to crop production changes. We then use Montecarlo simulations to characterize crop yield risk to water variability. Finally we evaluate some policy scenarios with irrigated area adjustments that could cope in a context of increased water scarcity. A substantial decrease in irrigated land, of up to 30% of total, results in only moderate losses of crop productivity. The response is crop and region specific and may serve to prioritise adaptation strategies.

Increasing temperature cuts back crop yields in Hungary over the last 90 years.

PubMed

Pinke, Zsolt; Lövei, Gábor L

2017-12-01

The transformation of climatic regime has an undeniable impact on plant production, but we rarely have long enough date series to examine the unfolding of such effects. The clarification of the relationship between crop plants and climate has a near-immediate importance due to the impending human-made global change. This study investigated the relationship between temperature, precipitation, drought intensity and the yields of four major cereals in Hungary between 1921 and 2010. The analysis of 30-year segments indicated a monotonously increasing negative impact of temperature on crop yields. A 1°C temperature increase reduced the yield of the four main cereals by 9.6%-14.8% in 1981-2010, which revealed the vulnerability of Eastern European crop farming to recent climate change. Climate accounted for 17%-39% of yield variability over the past 90 years, but this figure reached 33%-67% between 1981 and 2010. Our analysis supports the claim that the mid-20th century green revolution improved yields "at the mercy of the weather": during this period, the impact of increasing fertilization and mechanisation coincided with climatic conditions that were more favourable than today. Crop yields in Eastern Europe have been stagnating or decreasing since the mid-1980s. Although usually attributed to the large socio-economic changes sweeping the region, our analysis indicates that a warming climate is at least partially responsible for this trend. Such a robust impact of increasing temperatures on crop yields also constitutes an obvious warning for this core grain-growing region of the world. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity and requirement of improvements of four soybean crop simulation models for climate change studies in Southern Brazil.

PubMed

Battisti, R; Sentelhas, P C; Boote, K J

2018-05-01

Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO 2 ] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha -1 for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO 2 ] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO 2 .

Tradeoffs between water requirements and yield stability in annual vs. perennial crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, Giulia; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.

2018-02-01

Population growth and changes in climate and diets will likely further increase the pressure on agriculture and water resources globally. Currently, staple crops are obtained from annuals plants. A shift towards perennial crops may enhance many ecosystem services, but at the cost of higher water requirements and lower yields. It is still unclear when the advantages of perennial crops overcome their disadvantages and perennial crops are thus a sustainable solution. Here we combine a probabilistic description of the soil water balance and crop development with an extensive dataset of traits of congeneric annuals and perennials to identify the conditions for which perennial crops are more viable than annual ones with reference to yield, yield stability, and effective use of water. We show that the larger and more developed roots of perennial crops allow a better exploitation of soil water resources and a reduction of yield variability with respect to annual species, but their yields remain lower when considering grain crops. Furthermore, perennial crops have higher and more variable irrigation requirements and lower water productivity. These results are important to understand the potential consequences for yield, its stability, and water resource use of a shift from annual to perennial crops and, more generally, if perennial crops may be more resilient than annual crops in the face of climatic fluctuations.

Using a time-series statistical framework to quantify trends and abrupt change in US corn, soybean, and wheat yields from 1970-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Ives, A. R.; Turner, M. G.; Kucharik, C. J.

2017-12-01

Previous studies have identified global agricultural regions where "stagnation" of long-term crop yield increases has occurred. These studies have used a variety of simple statistical methods that often ignore important aspects of time series regression modeling. These methods can lead to differing and contradictory results, which creates uncertainty regarding food security given rapid global population growth. Here, we present a new statistical framework incorporating time series-based algorithms into standard regression models to quantify spatiotemporal yield trends of US maize, soybean, and winter wheat from 1970-2016. Our primary goal was to quantify spatial differences in yield trends for these three crops using USDA county level data. This information was used to identify regions experiencing the largest changes in the rate of yield increases over time, and to determine whether abrupt shifts in the rate of yield increases have occurred. Although crop yields continue to increase in most maize-, soybean-, and winter wheat-growing areas, yield increases have stagnated in some key agricultural regions during the most recent 15 to 16 years: some maize-growing areas, except for the northern Great Plains, have shown a significant trend towards smaller annual yield increases for maize; soybean has maintained an consistent long-term yield gains in the Northern Great Plains, the Midwest, and southeast US, but has experienced a shift to smaller annual increases in other regions; winter wheat maintained a moderate annual increase in eastern South Dakota and eastern US locations, but showed a decline in the magnitude of annual increases across the central Great Plains and western US regions. Our results suggest that there were abrupt shifts in the rate of annual yield increases in a variety of US regions among the three crops. The framework presented here can be broadly applied to additional yield trend analyses for different crops and regions of the Earth.

Conservation Agriculture Improves Soil Quality, Crop Yield, and Incomes of Smallholder Farmers in North Western Ghana

PubMed Central

Naab, Jesse B.; Mahama, George Y.; Yahaya, Iddrisu; Prasad, P. V. V.

2017-01-01

Conservation agriculture (CA) practices are being widely promoted in many areas in sub-Saharan Africa to recuperate degraded soils and improve ecosystem services. This study examined the effects of three tillage practices [conventional moldboard plowing (CT), hand hoeing (MT) and no-tillage (NT)], and three cropping systems (continuous maize, soybean–maize annual rotation, and soybean/maize intercropping) on soil quality, crop productivity, and profitability in researcher and farmer managed on-farm trials from 2010 to 2013 in northwestern Ghana. In the researcher managed mother trial, the CA practices of NT, residue retention and crop rotation/intercropping maintained higher soil organic carbon, and total soil N compared to conventional tillage practices after 4 years. Soil bulk density was higher under NT than under CT soils in the researcher managed mother trails or farmers managed baby trials after 4 years. In the researcher managed mother trial, there was no significant difference between tillage systems or cropping systems in maize or soybean yields in the first three seasons. In the fourth season, crop rotation had the greatest impact on maize yields with CT maize following soybean increasing yields by 41 and 49% compared to MT and NT maize, respectively. In the farmers’ managed trials, maize yield ranged from 520 to 2700 kg ha-1 and 300 to 2000 kg ha-1 for CT and NT, respectively, reflecting differences in experience of farmers with NT. Averaged across farmers, CT cropping systems increased maize and soybean yield ranging from 23 to 39% compared with NT cropping systems. Partial budget analysis showed that the cost of producing maize or soybean is 20–29% cheaper with NT systems and gives higher returns to labor compared to CT practice. Benefit-to-cost ratios also show that NT cropping systems are more profitable than CT systems. We conclude that with time, implementation of CA practices involving NT, crop rotation, intercropping of maize and soybean along with crop residue retention presents a win–win scenario due to improved crop yield, increased economic return, and trends of increasing soil fertility. The biggest challenge, however, remains with producing enough biomass and retaining same on the field. PMID:28680427

Benefits of seasonal forecasts of crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

2017-12-01

Major factors behind recent fluctuations in food prices include increased biofuel production and oil price fluctuations. In addition, several extreme climate events that reduced worldwide food production coincided with upward spikes in food prices. The stabilization of crop yields is one of the most important tasks to stabilize food prices and thereby enhance food security. Recent development of technologies related to crop modeling and seasonal weather forecasting has made it possible to forecast future crop yields for maize and soybean. However, the effective use of these technologies remains limited. Here we present the potential benefits of seasonal crop-yield forecasts on a global scale for choice of planting day. For this purpose, we used a model (PRYSBI-2) that can well replicate past crop yields both for maize and soybean. This model system uses a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate the parameters of a basic process-based model of crop growth. The spatial variability of model parameters was considered by estimating the posterior distribution of the parameters from historical yield data by using the Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with a resolution of 1.125° × 1.125°. The posterior distributions of model parameters were estimated for each spatial grid with 30 000 MCMC steps of 10 chains each. By using this model and the estimated parameter distributions, we were able to estimate not only crop yield but also levels of associated uncertainty. We found that the global average crop yield increased about 30% as the result of the optimal selection of planting day and that the seasonal forecast of crop yield had a large benefit in and near the eastern part of Brazil and India for maize and the northern area of China for soybean. In these countries, the effects of El Niño and Indian Ocean dipole are large. The results highlight the importance of developing a system to forecast global crop yields.

Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostberg, Sebastian; Schewe, Jacob; Childers, Katelin; Frieler, Katja

2018-05-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the policy discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models often use global mean temperature change (ΔGMT) as a sole measure of climate change and, therefore, need to describe impacts as a function of ΔGMT. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with ΔGMT. It is less clear to what extent more complex biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ΔGMT, even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ΔGMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast estimation of crop yield changes for emissions scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ΔGMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we find that the variability in crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model, geographical patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations.

Temporally dependent pollinator competition and facilitation with mass flowering crops affects yield in co-blooming crops

PubMed Central

Grab, Heather; Blitzer, Eleanor J.; Danforth, Bryan; Loeb, Greg; Poveda, Katja

2017-01-01

One of the greatest challenges in sustainable agricultural production is managing ecosystem services, such as pollination, in ways that maximize crop yields. Most efforts to increase services by wild pollinators focus on management of natural habitats surrounding farms or non-crop habitats within farms. However, mass flowering crops create resource pulses that may be important determinants of pollinator dynamics. Mass bloom attracts pollinators and it is unclear how this affects the pollination and yields of other co-blooming crops. We investigated the effects of mass flowering apple on the pollinator community and yield of co-blooming strawberry on farms spanning a gradient in cover of apple orchards in the landscape. The effect of mass flowering apple on strawberry was dependent on the stage of apple bloom. During early and peak apple bloom, pollinator abundance and yield were reduced in landscapes with high cover of apple orchards. Following peak apple bloom, pollinator abundance was greater on farms with high apple cover and corresponded with increased yields on these farms. Spatial and temporal overlap between mass flowering and co-blooming crops alters the strength and direction of these dynamics and suggests that yields can be optimized by designing agricultural systems that avoid competition while maximizing facilitation. PMID:28345653

Temporal changes in climatic variables and their impact on crop yields in southwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hong-Bin; Gou, Yu; Wang, Hong-Ye; Li, Hong-Mei; Wu, Wei

2014-08-01

Knowledge of variability in climatic variables changes and its impact on crop yields is important for farmers and policy makers, especially in southwestern China where rainfed agriculture is dominant. In the current study, six climatic parameters (mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine hours, temperature difference, and rainy days) and aggregated yields of three main crops (rice: Oryza sativa L., oilseed rape: Brassica napus L., and tobacco: Nicotiana tabacum L.) during 1985-2010 were collected and analyzed for Chongqing—a large agricultural municipality of China. Climatic variables changes were detected by Mann-Kendall test. Increased mean temperature and temperature difference and decreased relative humidity were found in annual and oilseed rape growth time series ( P < 0.05). Increased sunshine hours were observed during the oilseed rape growth period ( P < 0.05). Rainy days decreased slightly in annual and oilseed rape growth time series ( P < 0.10). Correlation analysis showed that yields of all three crops could benefit from changes in climatic variables in this region. Yield of rice increased with rainfall ( P < 0.10). Yield of oilseed rape increased with mean temperature and temperature difference but decreased with relative humidity ( P < 0.01). Tobacco yield increased with mean temperature ( P < 0.05). Path analysis provided additional information about the importance and contribution paths of climatic variables to crop yields. Temperature difference and sunshine hours had higher direct and indirect effects via other climatic variables on yields of rice and tobacco. Mean temperature, relative humidity, rainy days, and temperature difference had higher direct and indirect effects via others on yield of oilseed rape.

Temporal changes in climatic variables and their impact on crop yields in southwestern China.

PubMed

Liu, Hong-Bin; Gou, Yu; Wang, Hong-Ye; Li, Hong-Mei; Wu, Wei

2014-08-01

Knowledge of variability in climatic variables changes and its impact on crop yields is important for farmers and policy makers, especially in southwestern China where rainfed agriculture is dominant. In the current study, six climatic parameters (mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, sunshine hours, temperature difference, and rainy days) and aggregated yields of three main crops (rice: Oryza sativa L., oilseed rape: Brassica napus L., and tobacco: Nicotiana tabacum L.) during 1985-2010 were collected and analyzed for Chongqing-a large agricultural municipality of China. Climatic variables changes were detected by Mann-Kendall test. Increased mean temperature and temperature difference and decreased relative humidity were found in annual and oilseed rape growth time series (P<0.05). Increased sunshine hours were observed during the oilseed rape growth period (P<0.05). Rainy days decreased slightly in annual and oilseed rape growth time series (P<0.10). Correlation analysis showed that yields of all three crops could benefit from changes in climatic variables in this region. Yield of rice increased with rainfall (P<0.10). Yield of oilseed rape increased with mean temperature and temperature difference but decreased with relative humidity (P<0.01). Tobacco yield increased with mean temperature (P<0.05). Path analysis provided additional information about the importance and contribution paths of climatic variables to crop yields. Temperature difference and sunshine hours had higher direct and indirect effects via other climatic variables on yields of rice and tobacco. Mean temperature, relative humidity, rainy days, and temperature difference had higher direct and indirect effects via others on yield of oilseed rape.

Tuber yield and quality characteristics of potatoes for off-season crops in a Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Ierna, Anita

2010-01-15

There is little research on evaluating the compatibility of potatoes for double cropping in southern Italy. The aim of this investigation was to assess tuber yield and some qualitative traits of tubers such as skin colour, tuber dry matter content and tuber nitrate content, both in winter-spring and in summer-autumn crops, as influenced by genotype and harvest time. Yield, skin colour and dry matter content of tubers were higher in the winter-spring crop than in the summer-autumn crop, attributable to the advantageous lag time in spring between solar radiation and temperatures and the disadvantageous lag in autumn. Spunta and Arinda performed well within each crop season, whereas Ninfa showed an important yield loss in autumn. In both off-season crops, delaying tuber harvest until leaf senescence increased yield and improved quality attributes such as tuber dry matter content and skin colour, whereas nitrate contents significantly decreased in the winter-spring crop and increased in the summer-autumn crop. Ninfa showed less tendency than Arinda and Spunta to accumulate nitrate in tubers in both off-season crops. It might be advantageous to examine in further research which mechanisms sustain compatibility to the autumn and assess other quality characteristics for the fresh market in the contrasting climatic conditions of the two off-season crops. Copyright (c) 2009 Society of Chemical Industry.

Impacts of extreme heat and drought on crop yields in China: an assessment by using the DLEM-AG2 model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Pan, S.; Tian, H.

2016-12-01

China is not only one of the major agricultural production countries with the largest population in the world, but it is also the most susceptible to climate change and extreme events. Much concern has been raised about how extreme climate has affected crop yield, which is crucial for China's food supply security. However, the quantitative assessment of extreme heat and drought impacts on crop yield in China has rarely been investigated. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2), a highly integrated process-based ecosystem model with crop-specific simulation, here we quantified spatial and temporal patterns of extreme climatic heat and drought stress and their impacts on the yields of major food crops (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) across China during 1981-2015, and further investigated the underlying mechanisms. Simulated results showed that extreme heat and drought stress significantly reduced national cereal production and increased the yield gaps between potential yield and rain-fed yield. The drought stress was the primary factor to reduce crop yields in the semi-arid and arid regions, and extreme heat stress slightly aggravated the yield loss. The yield gap between potential yield and rain-fed yield was larger at locations with lower precipitation. Our results suggest that a large exploitable yield gap in response to extreme climatic heat-drought stress offers an opportunity to increase productivity in China by optimizing agronomic practices, such as irrigation, fertilizer use, sowing density, and sowing date.

Impacts of plastic film mulching on crop yields, soil water, nitrate, and organic carbon in Northwestern China: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Dedi; Chen, Lei; Qu, Hongchao; Wang, Yilin; Misselbrook, Tom; Jiang, Rui

2018-04-01

In order to increase crop yield in semi-arid and arid areas, plastic film mulching (PFM) is widely used in Northwestern China. To date, many studies have addressed the effects of PFM on soil physical and biochemical properties in rain-fed agriculture in Northwestern China, but the findings of different studies are often contradictory. Therefore, a comprehensive review of the impacts of PFM on soil water content, soil nutrients and food production is needed. We compiled the results of 1278 observations to evaluate the overall effects of PFM on soil water content, the distribution of nitrate and soil organic carbon, and crop yield in rain-fed agriculture in Northwestern China. Our results showed that PFM increased soil moisture and nitrate concentration in topsoils (0-20 cm) by 12.9% and 28.2%, respectively, but slightly decreased (1.8%) soil organic carbon (SOC) content in the 0-10 cm soil layer. PFM significantly increased grain yields by 43.1%, with greatest effect in spring maize (79.4%). When related to cumulative precipitation during the crop growing season, yield increase from PFM was greatest (72.8%) at 200-300 mm, which was attributed to the large increase for spring maize and potato, implying that crop zoning would be beneficial for PFM in this region. When related to N application rate, crop yields benefited most from PFM (80.2%) at 200-300 kg/ha. A cost-benefit analysis indicated that PFM increased economic return by an average of 29.5%, with the best improvement for spring maize (71.1%) and no increase for spring wheat. In conclusion, PFM can significantly increase crop yield and economic return (especially for spring maize) in rain-fed agriculture areas of Northwestern China. Crop zoning is recommended for PFM to achieve the largest economic benefit. However, full account needs to be taken of the environmental impacts relating to N loss, SOC depletion and film pollution to evaluate the sustainability of PFM systems and further research is required to quantify and mitigate these impacts.

Population dynamics of plant nematodes in cultivated soil: length of rotation in newly cleared and old agricultural land.

PubMed

Good, J M; Murphy, W S; Brodie, B B

1973-04-01

During a 6-year study of 1-, 2-, and 3-year crop rotations, population densities of Pratylenchus brachyurus, Trichodorus christiei, and Meloidogyne incognita were significantly affected by the choice of crops but not by length of crop rotation. The density of P. brachyurus and T. christiei increased rapidly on milo (Sorghum vulgate). In addition, populations of P. brachyurus increased significantly in cropping systems that involved crotalaria (C. rnucronata), millet (Setaria italica), and sudangrass (Sorghum sudanense). Lowest numbers of P. brachyurus occurred where okra (Hibiscus esculentus) was grown or where land was fallow. The largest increase in populations of T. christiei occurred in cropping systems that involved millet, sudangrass, and okra whereas the smallest increase occurred in cropping systems that involved crotalaria or fallow. A winter cover of rye (Secale cereale) had no distinguishable effect on population densities of P. brachyurus or T. christiei. Meloidogyne incognita was detected during the fourth year in both newly cleared and old agricultural land when okra was included in the cropping system. Detectable populations of M. incognita did not develop in any of the other cropping systems. Yields of tomato transplants were higher on the newly cleared land than on the old land. Highest yields were obtained when crotalaria was included in the cropping system. Lowest yields were obtained when milo, or fallow were included in the cropping system. Length of rotation had no distinguishable effect on yields of tomato transplants.

Pesticides reduce symbiotic efficiency of nitrogen-fixing rhizobia and host plants

PubMed Central

Fox, Jennifer E.; Gulledge, Jay; Engelhaupt, Erika; Burow, Matthew E.; McLachlan, John A.

2007-01-01

Unprecedented agricultural intensification and increased crop yield will be necessary to feed the burgeoning world population, whose global food demand is projected to double in the next 50 years. Although grain production has doubled in the past four decades, largely because of the widespread use of synthetic nitrogenous fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation promoted by the “Green Revolution,” this rate of increased agricultural output is unsustainable because of declining crop yields and environmental impacts of modern agricultural practices. The last 20 years have seen diminishing returns in crop yield in response to increased application of fertilizers, which cannot be completely explained by current ecological models. A common strategy to reduce dependence on nitrogenous fertilizers is the production of leguminous crops, which fix atmospheric nitrogen via symbiosis with nitrogen-fixing rhizobia bacteria, in rotation with nonleguminous crops. Here we show previously undescribed in vivo evidence that a subset of organochlorine pesticides, agrichemicals, and environmental contaminants induces a symbiotic phenotype of inhibited or delayed recruitment of rhizobia bacteria to host plant roots, fewer root nodules produced, lower rates of nitrogenase activity, and a reduction in overall plant yield at time of harvest. The environmental consequences of synthetic chemicals compromising symbiotic nitrogen fixation are increased dependence on synthetic nitrogenous fertilizer, reduced soil fertility, and unsustainable long-term crop yields. PMID:17548832

Food security: increasing yield and improving resource use efficiency.

PubMed

Parry, Martin A J; Hawkesford, Malcolm J

2010-11-01

Food production and security will be a major issue for supplying an increasing world population. The problem will almost certainly be exacerbated by climate change. There is a projected need to double food production by 2050. In recent times, the trend has been for incremental modest yield increases for most crops. There is an urgent need to develop integrated and sustainable approaches that will significantly increase both production per unit land area and the resource use efficiency of crops. This review considers some key processes involved in plant growth and development with some examples of ways in which molecular technology, plant breeding and genetics may increase the yield and resource use efficiency of wheat. The successful application of biotechnology to breeding is essential to provide the major increases in production required. However, each crop and each specific agricultural situation presents specific requirements and targets for optimisation. Some increases in production will come about as new varieties are developed which are able to produce satisfactory crops on marginal land presently not considered appropriate for arable crops. Other new varieties will be developed to increase both yield and resource use efficiency on the best land.

Drought mitigation in perennial crops by fertilization and adjustments of regional yield models for future climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kantola, I. B.; Blanc-Betes, E.; Gomez-Casanovas, N.; Masters, M. D.; Bernacchi, C.; DeLucia, E. H.

2017-12-01

Increased variability and intensity of precipitation in the Midwest agricultural belt due to climate change is a major concern. The success of perennial bioenergy crops in replacing maize for bioethanol production is dependent on sustained yields that exceed maize, and the marketing of perennial crops often emphasizes the resilience of perennial agriculture to climate stressors. Land conversion from maize for bioethanol to Miscanthus x giganteus (miscanthus) increases yields and annual evapotranspiration rates (ET). However, establishment of miscanthus also increases biome water use efficiency (the ratio between net ecosystem productivity after harvest and ET), due to greater belowground biomass in miscanthus than in maize or soybean. In 2012, a widespread drought reduced the yield of 5-year-old miscanthus plots in central Illinois by 36% compared to the previous two years. Eddy covariance data indicated continued soil water deficit during the hydrologically-normal growing season in 2013 and miscanthus yield failed to rebound as expected, lagging behind pre-drought yields by an average of 53% over the next three years. In early 2014, nitrogen fertilizer was applied to half of mature (7-year-old) miscanthus plots in an effort to improve yields. In plots with annual post-emergence application of 60 kg ha-1 of urea, peak biomass was 29% greater than unfertilized miscanthus in 2014, and 113% greater in 2015, achieving statistically similar yields to the pre-drought average. Regional-scale models of perennial crop productivity use 30-year climate averages that are inadequate for predicting long-term effects of short-term extremes on perennial crops. Modeled predictions of perennial crop productivity incorporating repeated extreme weather events, observed crop response, and the use of management practices to mitigate water deficit demonstrate divergent effects on predicted yields.

Assessment of climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin, India.

PubMed

Dubey, Swatantra Kumar; Sharma, Devesh

2018-09-01

Crop growth models like AquaCrop are useful in understanding the impact of climate change on crop production considering the various projections from global circulation models and regional climate models. The present study aims to assess the climate change impact on yield of major crops in the Banas River Basin i.e., wheat, barley and maize. Banas basin is part of the semi-arid region of Rajasthan state in India. AquaCrop model is used to calculate the yield of all the three crops for a historical period of 30years (1981-2010) and then compared with observed yield data. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values are calculated to assess the model accuracy in prediction of yield. Further, the calibrated model is used to predict the possible impacts of climate change and CO 2 concentration on crop yield using CORDEX-SA climate projections of three driving climate models (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-LR) for two different scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the future period 2021-2050. RMSE values of simulated yield with respect to observed yield of wheat, barley and maize are 11.99, 16.15 and 19.13, respectively. It is predicted that crop yield of all three crops will increase under the climate change conditions for future period (2021-2050). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk of water scarcity and water policy implications for crop production in the Ebro Basin in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Fernández-Haddad, Z.; Iglesias, A.

2010-08-01

The increasing pressure on water systems in the Mediterranean enhances existing water conflicts and threatens water supply for agriculture. In this context, one of the main priorities for agricultural research and public policy is the adaptation of crop yields to water pressures. This paper focuses on the evaluation of hydrological risk and water policy implications for food production. Our methodological approach includes four steps. For the first step, we estimate the impacts of rainfall and irrigation water on crop yields. However, this study is not limited to general crop production functions since it also considers the linkages between those economic and biophysical aspects which may have an important effect on crop productivity. We use statistical models of yield response to address how hydrological variables affect the yield of the main Mediterranean crops in the Ebro River Basin. In the second step, this study takes into consideration the effects of those interactions and analyzes gross value added sensitivity to crop production changes. We then use Montecarlo simulations to characterize crop yield risk to water variability. Finally we evaluate some policy scenarios with irrigated area adjustments that could cope in a context of increased water scarcity. A substantial decrease in irrigated land, of up to 30% of total, results in only moderate losses of crop productivity. The response is crop and region specific and may serve to prioritise adaptation strategies.

Sugarcane for bioenergy production: an assessment of yield and regulation of sucrose content.

PubMed

Waclawovsky, Alessandro J; Sato, Paloma M; Lembke, Carolina G; Moore, Paul H; Souza, Glaucia M

2010-04-01

An increasing number of plant scientists, including breeders, agronomists, physiologists and molecular biologists, are working towards the development of new and improved energy crops. Research is increasingly focused on how to design crops specifically for bioenergy production and increased biomass generation for biofuel purposes. The most important biofuel to date is bioethanol produced from sugars (sucrose and starch). Second generation bioethanol is also being targeted for studies to allow the use of the cell wall (lignocellulose) as a source of carbon. If a crop is to be used for bioenergy production, the crop should be high yielding, fast growing, low lignin content and requiring relatively small energy inputs for its growth and harvest. Obtaining high yields in nonprime agricultural land is a key for energy crop development to allow sustainability and avoid competition with food production. Sugarcane is the most efficient bioenergy crop of tropical and subtropical regions, and biotechnological tools for the improvement of this crop are advancing rapidly. We focus this review on the studies of sugarcane genes associated with sucrose content, biomass and cell wall metabolism and the preliminary physiological characterization of cultivars that contrast for sugar and biomass yield.

Variation in canopy duration in the perennial biofuel crop Miscanthus reveals complex associations with yield.

PubMed

Robson, Paul R H; Farrar, Kerrie; Gay, Alan P; Jensen, Elaine F; Clifton-Brown, John C; Donnison, Iain S

2013-05-01

Energy crops can provide a sustainable source of power and fuels, and mitigate the negative effects of CO2 emissions associated with fossil fuel use. Miscanthus is a perennial C4 energy crop capable of producing large biomass yields whilst requiring low levels of input. Miscanthus is largely unimproved and therefore there could be significant opportunities to increase yield. Further increases in yield will improve the economics, energy balance, and carbon mitigation of the crop, as well as reducing land-take. One strategy to increase yield in Miscanthus is to maximize the light captured through an extension of canopy duration. In this study, canopy duration was compared among a diverse collection of 244 Miscanthus genotypes. Canopy duration was determined by calculating the number of days between canopy establishment and senescence. Yield was positively correlated with canopy duration. Earlier establishment and later senescence were also both separately correlated with higher yield. However, although genotypes with short canopy durations were low yielding, not all genotypes with long canopy durations were high yielding. Differences of yield between genotypes with long canopy durations were associated with variation in stem and leaf traits. Different methodologies to assess canopy duration traits were investigated, including visual assessment, image analysis, light interception, and different trait thresholds. The highest correlation coefficients were associated with later assessments of traits and the use of quantum sensors for canopy establishment. A model for trait optimization to enable yield improvement in Miscanthus and other bioenergy crops is discussed.

Variation in canopy duration in the perennial biofuel crop Miscanthus reveals complex associations with yield

PubMed Central

Robson, Paul R.H.; Farrar, Kerrie; Gay, Alan P.; Jensen, Elaine F.; Clifton-Brown, John C.; Donnison, Iain S.

2013-01-01

Energy crops can provide a sustainable source of power and fuels, and mitigate the negative effects of CO2 emissions associated with fossil fuel use. Miscanthus is a perennial C4 energy crop capable of producing large biomass yields whilst requiring low levels of input. Miscanthus is largely unimproved and therefore there could be significant opportunities to increase yield. Further increases in yield will improve the economics, energy balance, and carbon mitigation of the crop, as well as reducing land-take. One strategy to increase yield in Miscanthus is to maximize the light captured through an extension of canopy duration. In this study, canopy duration was compared among a diverse collection of 244 Miscanthus genotypes. Canopy duration was determined by calculating the number of days between canopy establishment and senescence. Yield was positively correlated with canopy duration. Earlier establishment and later senescence were also both separately correlated with higher yield. However, although genotypes with short canopy durations were low yielding, not all genotypes with long canopy durations were high yielding. Differences of yield between genotypes with long canopy durations were associated with variation in stem and leaf traits. Different methodologies to assess canopy duration traits were investigated, including visual assessment, image analysis, light interception, and different trait thresholds. The highest correlation coefficients were associated with later assessments of traits and the use of quantum sensors for canopy establishment. A model for trait optimization to enable yield improvement in Miscanthus and other bioenergy crops is discussed. PMID:23599277

Cura Annonae-Chemically Boosting Crop Yields Through Metabolic Feeding of a Plant Signaling Precursor.

PubMed

Vocadlo, David J

2017-05-22

The cream of the crop: With the world facing a projected shortfall of crops by 2050, new approaches are needed to boost crop yields. Metabolic feeding of plants with photocaged trehalose-6-phosphate (Tre6P) can increase levels of the signaling metabolite Tre6P in the plant. Reprogramming of cellular metabolism by Tre6P stimulates a program of plant growth and enhanced crop yields, while boosting starch content. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Weed Diversity Affects Soybean and Maize Yield in a Long Term Experiment in Michigan, USA.

PubMed

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Davis, Adam S; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose L

2017-01-01

Managing production environments in ways that promote weed community diversity may enhance both crop production and the development of a more sustainable agriculture. This study analyzed data of productivity of maize (corn) and soybean in plots in the Main Cropping System Experiment (MCSE) at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station Long-Term Ecological Research (KBS-LTER) in Michigan, USA, from 1996 to 2011. We used models derived from population ecology to explore how weed diversity, temperature, and precipitation interact with crop yields. Using three types of models that considered internal and external (climate and weeds) factors, with additive or non-linear variants, we found that changes in weed diversity were associated with changes in rates of crop yield increase over time for both maize and soybeans. The intrinsic capacity for soybean yield increase in response to the environment was greater under more diverse weed communities. Soybean production risks were greatest in the least weed diverse systems, in which each weed species lost was associated with progressively greater crop yield losses. Managing for weed community diversity, while suppressing dominant, highly competitive weeds, may be a helpful strategy for supporting long term increases in soybean productivity. In maize, there was a negative and non-additive response of yields to the interaction between weed diversity and minimum air temperatures. When cold temperatures constrained potential maize productivity through limited resources, negative interactions with weed diversity became more pronounced. We suggest that: (1) maize was less competitive in cold years allowing higher weed diversity and the dominance of some weed species; or (2) that cold years resulted in increased weed richness and prevalence of competitive weeds, thus reducing crop yields. Therefore, we propose to control dominant weed species especially in the years of low yield and extreme minimum temperatures to improve maize yields. Results of our study indicate that through the proactive management of weed diversity, it may be possible to promote both high productivity of crops and environmental sustainability.

Weed Diversity Affects Soybean and Maize Yield in a Long Term Experiment in Michigan, USA

PubMed Central

Ferrero, Rosana; Lima, Mauricio; Davis, Adam S.; Gonzalez-Andujar, Jose L.

2017-01-01

Managing production environments in ways that promote weed community diversity may enhance both crop production and the development of a more sustainable agriculture. This study analyzed data of productivity of maize (corn) and soybean in plots in the Main Cropping System Experiment (MCSE) at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station Long-Term Ecological Research (KBS-LTER) in Michigan, USA, from 1996 to 2011. We used models derived from population ecology to explore how weed diversity, temperature, and precipitation interact with crop yields. Using three types of models that considered internal and external (climate and weeds) factors, with additive or non-linear variants, we found that changes in weed diversity were associated with changes in rates of crop yield increase over time for both maize and soybeans. The intrinsic capacity for soybean yield increase in response to the environment was greater under more diverse weed communities. Soybean production risks were greatest in the least weed diverse systems, in which each weed species lost was associated with progressively greater crop yield losses. Managing for weed community diversity, while suppressing dominant, highly competitive weeds, may be a helpful strategy for supporting long term increases in soybean productivity. In maize, there was a negative and non-additive response of yields to the interaction between weed diversity and minimum air temperatures. When cold temperatures constrained potential maize productivity through limited resources, negative interactions with weed diversity became more pronounced. We suggest that: (1) maize was less competitive in cold years allowing higher weed diversity and the dominance of some weed species; or (2) that cold years resulted in increased weed richness and prevalence of competitive weeds, thus reducing crop yields. Therefore, we propose to control dominant weed species especially in the years of low yield and extreme minimum temperatures to improve maize yields. Results of our study indicate that through the proactive management of weed diversity, it may be possible to promote both high productivity of crops and environmental sustainability. PMID:28286509

Crop responses to climatic variation

PubMed Central

Porter, John R; Semenov, Mikhail A

2005-01-01

The yield and quality of food crops is central to the well being of humans and is directly affected by climate and weather. Initial studies of climate change on crops focussed on effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) level and/or global mean temperature and/or rainfall and nutrition on crop production. However, crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions, exhibit threshold responses and are subject to combinations of stress factors that affect their growth, development and yield. Thus, climate variability and changes in the frequency of extreme events are important for yield, its stability and quality. In this context, threshold temperatures for crop processes are found not to differ greatly for different crops and are important to define for the major food crops, to assist climate modellers predict the occurrence of crop critical temperatures and their temporal resolution. This paper demonstrates the impacts of climate variability for crop production in a number of crops. Increasing temperature and precipitation variability increases the risks to yield, as shown via computer simulation and experimental studies. The issue of food quality has not been given sufficient importance when assessing the impact of climate change for food and this is addressed. Using simulation models of wheat, the concentration of grain protein is shown to respond to changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation events. The paper concludes with discussion of adaptation possibilities for crops in response to drought and argues that characters that enable better exploration of the soil and slower leaf canopy expansion could lead to crop higher transpiration efficiency. PMID:16433091

Effects of Nitrogen Application Rate on the Yields, Nutritive Value and Silage Fermentation Quality of Whole-crop Wheat.

PubMed

Li, C J; Xu, Z H; Dong, Z X; Shi, S L; Zhang, J G

2016-08-01

Whole-crop wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) as forage has been extensively used in the world. In this study, the effects of N application rates on the yields, nutritive value and silage quality were investigated. The N application rates were 0, 75, 150, 225, and 300 kg/ha. The research results indicated that the dry matter yield of whole-crop wheat increased significantly with increasing N rate up to 150 kg/ha, and then leveled off. The crude protein content and in vitro dry matter digestibility of whole-crop wheat increased significantly with increasing N up to 225 kg/ha, while they no longer increased at N 300 kg/ha. On the contrary, the content of various fibers tended to decrease with the increase of N application. The content of lactic acid, acetic acid and propionic acid in silages increased with the increase of N rate (p<0.05). The ammonia-N content of silages with higher N application rates (≥225 kg/ha) was significantly higher than that with lower N application rates (≤150 kg/ha). Whole-crop wheat applied with high levels of N accumulated more nitrate-N. In conclusion, taking account of yields, nutritive value, silage quality and safety, the optimum N application to whole-crop wheat should be about 150 kg/ha at the present experiment conditions.

Effects of ditch-buried straw return on water percolation, nitrogen leaching and crop yields in a rice-wheat rotation system.

PubMed

Yang, Haishui; Xu, Mingmin; Koide, Roger T; Liu, Qian; Dai, Yajun; Liu, Ling; Bian, Xinmin

2016-03-15

Crop residue management and nitrogen loss are two important environmental problems in the rice-wheat rotation system in China. This study investigated the effects of burial of straw on water percolation, nitrogen loss by leaching, crop growth and yield. Greenhouse mesocosm experiments were conducted over the course of three simulated cropping seasons in a rice1-wheat-rice2 rotation. Greater amounts of straw resulted in more water percolation, irrespective of crop season. Burial at 20 and 35 cm significantly reduced, but burial at 50 cm increased nitrogen leaching. Straw at 500 kg ha(-1) reduced, but at 1000 kg ha(-1) and at 1500 kg ha(-1) straw increased nitrogen leaching in three consecutive crop rotations. In addition, straw at 500 kg ha(-1) buried at 35 cm significantly increased yield and its components for both crops. This study suggests that N losses via leaching from the rice-wheat rotation may be reduced by the burial of the appropriate amount of straw at the appropriate depth. Greater amounts of buried straw, however, may promote nitrogen leaching and negatively affect crop growth and yields. Complementary field experiments must be performed to make specific agronomic recommendations. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European-wide study.

PubMed

Zhao, Gang; Webber, Heidi; Hoffmann, Holger; Wolf, Joost; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

2015-11-01

This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO2 effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982-2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040-2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process-based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr(-1) ). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO2 effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO2 effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-01-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

Improving yield potential in crops under elevated CO2: Integrating the photosynthetic and nitrogen utilization efficiencies

PubMed Central

Kant, Surya; Seneweera, Saman; Rodin, Joakim; Materne, Michael; Burch, David; Rothstein, Steven J.; Spangenberg, German

2012-01-01

Increasing crop productivity to meet burgeoning human food demand is challenging under changing environmental conditions. Since industrial revolution atmospheric CO2 levels have linearly increased. Developing crop varieties with increased utilization of CO2 for photosynthesis is an urgent requirement to cope with the irreversible rise of atmospheric CO2 and achieve higher food production. The primary effects of elevated CO2 levels in most crop plants, particularly C3 plants, include increased biomass accumulation, although initial stimulation of net photosynthesis rate is only temporal and plants fail to sustain the maximal stimulation, a phenomenon known as photosynthesis acclimation. Despite this acclimation, grain yield is known to marginally increase under elevated CO2. The yield potential of C3 crops is limited by their capacity to exploit sufficient carbon. The “C fertilization” through elevated CO2 levels could potentially be used for substantial yield increase. Rubisco is the rate-limiting enzyme in photosynthesis and its activity is largely affected by atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen availability. In addition, maintenance of the C/N ratio is pivotal for various growth and development processes in plants governing yield and seed quality. For maximizing the benefits of elevated CO2, raising plant nitrogen pools will be necessary as part of maintaining an optimal C/N balance. In this review, we discuss potential causes for the stagnation in yield increases under elevated CO2 levels and explore possibilities to overcome this limitation by improved photosynthetic capacity and enhanced nitrogen use efficiency. Opportunities of engineering nitrogen uptake, assimilatory, and responsive genes are also discussed that could ensure optimal nitrogen allocation toward expanding source and sink tissues. This might avert photosynthetic acclimation partially or completely and drive for improved crop production under elevated CO2 levels. PMID:22833749

Improving yield potential in crops under elevated CO(2): Integrating the photosynthetic and nitrogen utilization efficiencies.

PubMed

Kant, Surya; Seneweera, Saman; Rodin, Joakim; Materne, Michael; Burch, David; Rothstein, Steven J; Spangenberg, German

2012-01-01

Increasing crop productivity to meet burgeoning human food demand is challenging under changing environmental conditions. Since industrial revolution atmospheric CO(2) levels have linearly increased. Developing crop varieties with increased utilization of CO(2) for photosynthesis is an urgent requirement to cope with the irreversible rise of atmospheric CO(2) and achieve higher food production. The primary effects of elevated CO(2) levels in most crop plants, particularly C(3) plants, include increased biomass accumulation, although initial stimulation of net photosynthesis rate is only temporal and plants fail to sustain the maximal stimulation, a phenomenon known as photosynthesis acclimation. Despite this acclimation, grain yield is known to marginally increase under elevated CO(2). The yield potential of C(3) crops is limited by their capacity to exploit sufficient carbon. The "C fertilization" through elevated CO(2) levels could potentially be used for substantial yield increase. Rubisco is the rate-limiting enzyme in photosynthesis and its activity is largely affected by atmospheric CO(2) and nitrogen availability. In addition, maintenance of the C/N ratio is pivotal for various growth and development processes in plants governing yield and seed quality. For maximizing the benefits of elevated CO(2), raising plant nitrogen pools will be necessary as part of maintaining an optimal C/N balance. In this review, we discuss potential causes for the stagnation in yield increases under elevated CO(2) levels and explore possibilities to overcome this limitation by improved photosynthetic capacity and enhanced nitrogen use efficiency. Opportunities of engineering nitrogen uptake, assimilatory, and responsive genes are also discussed that could ensure optimal nitrogen allocation toward expanding source and sink tissues. This might avert photosynthetic acclimation partially or completely and drive for improved crop production under elevated CO(2) levels.

Enhancing crop yield with the use of N-based fertilizers co-applied with plant hormones or growth regulators.

PubMed

Zaman, Mohammad; Kurepin, Leonid V; Catto, Warwick; Pharis, Richard P

2015-07-01

Crop yield, vegetative or reproductive, depends on access to an adequate supply of essential mineral nutrients. At the same time, a crop plant's growth and development, and thus yield, also depend on in situ production of plant hormones. Thus optimizing mineral nutrition and providing supplemental hormones are two mechanisms for gaining appreciable yield increases. Optimizing the mineral nutrient supply is a common and accepted agricultural practice, but the co-application of nitrogen-based fertilizers with plant hormones or plant growth regulators is relatively uncommon. Our review discusses possible uses of plant hormones (gibberellins, auxins, cytokinins, abscisic acid and ethylene) and specific growth regulators (glycine betaine and polyamines) to enhance and optimize crop yield when co-applied with nitrogen-based fertilizers. We conclude that use of growth-active gibberellins, together with a nitrogen-based fertilizer, can result in appreciable and significant additive increases in shoot dry biomass of crops, including forage crops growing under low-temperature conditions. There may also be a potential for use of an auxin or cytokinin, together with a nitrogen-based fertilizer, for obtaining additive increases in dry shoot biomass and/or reproductive yield. Further research, though, is needed to determine the potential of co-application of nitrogen-based fertilizers with abscisic acid, ethylene and other growth regulators. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Assessing and modelling ecohydrologic processes at the agricultural field scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basso, Bruno

2015-04-01

One of the primary goals of agricultural management is to increase the amount of crop produced per unit of fertilizer and water used. World record corn yields demonstrated that water use efficiency can increase fourfold with improved agronomic management and cultivars able to tolerate high densities. Planting crops with higher plant density can lead to significant yield increases, and increase plant transpiration vs. soil water evaporation. Precision agriculture technologies have been adopted for the last twenty years but seldom have the data collected been converted to information that led farmers to different agronomic management. These methods are intuitively appealing, but yield maps and other spatial layers of data need to be properly analyzed and interpreted to truly become valuable. Current agro-mechanic and geospatial technologies allow us to implement a spatially variable plan for agronomic inputs including seeding rate, cultivars, pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers, and water. Crop models are valuable tools to evaluate the impact of management strategies (e.g., cover crops, tile drains, and genetically-improved cultivars) on yield, soil carbon sequestration, leaching and greenhouse gas emissions. They can help farmers identify adaptation strategies to current and future climate conditions. In this paper I illustrate the key role that precision agriculture technologies (yield mapping technologies, within season soil and crop sensing), crop modeling and weather can play in dealing with the impact of climate variability on soil ecohydrologic processes. Case studies are presented to illustrate this concept.

Contrasting effects of landscape composition on crop yield mediated by specialist herbivores.

PubMed

Perez-Alvarez, Ricardo; Nault, Brian A; Poveda, Katja

2018-04-01

Landscape composition not only affects a variety of arthropod-mediated ecosystem services, but also disservices, such as herbivory by insect pests that may have negative effects on crop yield. Yet, little is known about how different habitats influence the dynamics of multiple herbivore species, and ultimately their collective impact on crop production. Using cabbage as a model system, we examined how landscape composition influenced the incidence of three specialist cruciferous pests (aphids, flea beetles, and leaf-feeding Lepidoptera), lepidopteran parasitoids, and crop yield across a gradient of landscape composition in New York, USA. We expected that landscapes with a higher proportion of cropland and lower habitat diversity would lead to an increase in pest pressure of the specialist herbivores and a reduction in crop yield. However, results indicated that neither greater cropland area nor lower landscape diversity influenced pest pressure or yield. Rather, pest pressure and yield were best explained by the presence of non-crop habitats (i.e., meadows) in the landscape. Specifically, cabbage was infested with fewer Lepidoptera in landscapes with a higher proportion of meadows likely resulting from increased parasitism. Conversely, cabbage was infested with more flea beetles and aphids as the proportion of meadows in the landscape increased, suggesting that these pests benefit from non-crop habitats. Furthermore, path analysis confirmed that these landscape-mediated effects on pest populations can have either positive or negative cascading effects on crop yield. Our findings illustrate how different pest species within the same cropping system show contrasting responses to landscape composition with respect to both the direction and spatial scale of the relationship. Such tradeoffs resulting from the complex interaction between multiple-pests, natural enemies, and landscape composition must be considered, if we are to manage landscapes for pest suppression benefits. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.

PubMed

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Detection of meteorological extreme effect on historical crop yield anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, W.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.

2017-12-01

Meteorological extremes of temperature and precipitation are a critical issue in the global climate change, and some studies investigating how the extreme changes in accordance with the climate change are continuously reported. However, it is rarely understandable that the extremes affect crop yield worldwide as heatwave, coolwave, drought, and flood, albeit some local or national reports are available. Therefore, we globally investigated the extremes effects on the variability of historical yield of maize, rice, soy, and wheat with a standardized index and a historical yield anomaly. For the regression analysis, the standardized index is annually aggregated in the consideration of a crop calendar, and the historical yield is detrended with 5-year moving average. Throughout this investigation, we found that the relationship between the aggregated standardized index and the historical yield anomaly shows not merely positive correlation but also negative correlation in all crops in the globe. Namely, the extremes cause decrease of crop yield as a matter of course, but increase in some regions contrastingly. These results help us to quantify the extremes effect on historical crop yield anomaly.

More crop per drop - Increasing input efficiency in sprinkler irrigated potatoes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostka, Stan; Fang, Lisa; Ren, Haiqin; Glucksman, Robert; Gadd, Nick

2014-05-01

Water scarcity, climate change, and population growth are significant global challenges for producing sufficient food, fiber, and fuel in the 21st century. Feeding an increasingly hungry world necessitates innovative strategies and technologies to maximize crop production outputs while simultaneously increasing crop water productivity. In the 20th century, major advances in precision irrigation enabled producers to increase productivity while more efficiently applying water to crops. While pressurized irrigation systems can deliver water effectively to the soil surface, the efficiency of rootzone delivery may be compromised by intrinsic heterogeneities in soil wetting characteristics related to organic matter, biofilms, and hydrophobic coatings on soil particles and aggregates. Efficiently delivering applied irrigation water throughout the soil matrix is critical to increasing crop productivity. We propose that management of soil water access by surfactants is a viable management option to maintain or increase yields under deficit irrigation. Potato yield and tuber quality under sprinkler irrigation were evaluated under standard production practices or with the inclusion of an aqueous nonionic surfactant formulation (10 wt% alkoxylated polyols and 7% glucoethers) applied at 10L ha-1 between emergence and tuberization. Crop responses from multi-year evaluations conducted on irrigated potatoes in Idaho (USA) were compared to multi-year on farm grower evaluations in Australia and China. Surfactant treatment resulted in statistically significant increases in yield (+5%) and US No. 1 grades (+8%) while reducing culls (-10%) in trials conducted in Idaho, USA. Similar responses were observed in commercial grower evaluations conducted in Australia (+8% total yield, +18% mean tuber weight) and in China in 2011 (+8% total yield and +18% premium, -12% culls). Under diverse production conditions, a single application of the surfactant formulation improved crop water productivity in water stressed environments. Results from these trials support our hypothesis that surfactants may be a viable management practice to improve crop water productivity in a water stressed environments.

Biochemical Disincentives to Fertilizing Cellulosic Ethanol Crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, M. E.; Hockaday, W. C.; Snapp, S.; McSwiney, C.; Baldock, J.

2010-12-01

Corn grain biofuel crops produce the highest yields when the cropping ecosystem is not nitrogen (N)-limited, achieved by application of fertilizer. There are environmental consequences for excessive fertilizer application to crops, including greenhouse gas emissions, hypoxic “dead zones,” and health problems from N runoff into groundwater. The increase in corn acreage in response to demand for alternative fuels (i.e. ethanol) could exacerbate these problems, and divert food supplies to fuel production. A potential substitute for grain ethanol that could reduce some of these impacts is cellulosic ethanol. Cellulosic ethanol feedstocks include grasses (switchgrass), hardwoods, and crop residues (e.g. corn stover, wheat straw). It has been assumed that these feedstocks will require similar N fertilization rates to grain biofuel crops to maximize yields, but carbohydrate yield versus N application has not previously been monitored. We report the biochemical stocks (carbohydrate, protein, and lignin in Mg ha-1) of a corn ecosystem grown under varying N levels. We measured biochemical yield in Mg ha-1 within the grain, leaf and stem, and reproductive parts of corn plants grown at seven N fertilization rates (0-202 kg N ha-1), to evaluate the quantity and quality of these feedstocks across a N fertilization gradient. The N fertilization rate study was performed at the Kellogg Biological Station-Long Term Ecological Research Site (KBS-LTER) in Michigan. Biochemical stocks were measured using 13C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR), combined with a molecular mixing model (Baldock et al. 2004). Carbohydrate and lignin are the main biochemicals of interest in ethanol production since carbohydrate is the ethanol feedstock, and lignin hinders the carbohydrate to ethanol conversion process. We show that corn residue carbohydrate yields respond only weakly to N fertilization compared to grain. Grain carbohydrate yields plateau in response to fertilization at moderate levels (67 kg N ha-1). Increasing fertilizer application beyond the point of diminishing returns for grain (67 kg N ha-1) to double the regionally-recommended amount (202 kg N ha-1) resulted in only marginal increases (25%) in crop residue carbohydrate yield, while increasing lignin yields 41%. In the case of at least this ecosystem, high fertilization rates did not result in large carbohydrate yield increases in the crop residue, and instead produced a lower quality feedstock for cellulosic ethanol production.

Management of Lignite Fly Ash for Improving Soil Fertility and Crop Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ram, Lal C.; Srivastava, Nishant K.; Jha, Sangeet K.; Sinha, Awadhesh K.; Masto, Reginald E.; Selvi, Vetrivel A.

2007-09-01

Lignite fly ash (LFA), being alkaline and endowed with excellent pozzolanic properties, a silt loam texture, and plant nutrients, has the potential to improve soil quality and productivity. Long-term field trials with groundnut, maize, and sun hemp were carried out to study the effect of LFA on growth and yield. Before crop I was sown, LFA was applied at various doses with and without press mud (an organic waste from the sugar industry, used as an amendment and source of nutrients). LFA with and without press mud was also applied before crops III and V were cultivated. Chemical fertilizer, along with gypsum, humic acid, and biofertilizer, was applied in all treatments, including the control. With one-time and repeat applications of LFA (with and without press mud), yield increased significantly (7.0-89.0%) in relation to the control crop. The press mud enhanced the yield (3.0-15.0%) with different LFA applications. The highest yield LFA dose was 200 t/ha for one-time and repeat applications, the maximum yield being with crop III (combination treatment). One-time and repeat application of LFA (alone and in combination with press mud) improved soil quality and the nutrient content of the produce. The highest dose of LFA (200 t/ha) with and without press mud showed the best residual effects (eco-friendly increases in the yield of succeeding crops). Some increase in trace- and heavy-metal contents and in the level of γ-emitters in soil and crop produce, but well within permissible limits, was observed. Thus, LFA can be used on a large scale to boost soil fertility and productivity with no adverse effects on the soil or crops, which may solve the problem of bulk disposal of fly ash in an eco-friendly manner.

Increasing Crop Yields in Water Stressed Countries by Combining Operations of Freshwater Reservoir and Wastewater Reclamation Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhushan, R.; Ng, T. L.

2015-12-01

Freshwater resources around the world are increasing in scarcity due to population growth, industrialization and climate change. This is a serious concern for water stressed countries, including those in Asia and North Africa where future food production is expected to be negatively affected by this. To address this problem, we investigate the potential of combining freshwater reservoir and wastewater reclamation operations. Reservoir water is the cheaper source of irrigation, but is often limited and climate sensitive. Treated wastewater is a more reliable alternative for irrigation, but often requires extensive further treatment which can be expensive. We propose combining the operations of a reservoir and a wastewater reclamation plant (WWRP) to augment the supply from the reservoir with reclaimed water for increasing crop yields in water stressed regions. The joint system of reservoir and WWRP is modeled as a multi-objective optimization problem with the double objective of maximizing the crop yield and minimizing total cost, subject to constraints on reservoir storage, spill and release, and capacity of the WWRP. We use the crop growth model Aquacrop, supported by The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), to model crop growth in response to water use. Aquacrop considers the effects of water deficit on crop growth stages, and from there estimates crop yield. We generate results comparing total crop yield under irrigation with water from just the reservoir (which is limited and often interrupted), and yield with water from the joint system (which has the potential of higher supply and greater reliability). We will present results for locations in India and Africa to evaluate the potential of the joint operations for improving food security in those areas for different budgets.

Ants and termites increase crop yield in a dry climate.

PubMed

Evans, Theodore A; Dawes, Tracy Z; Ward, Philip R; Lo, Nathan

2011-03-29

Agricultural intensification has increased crop yields, but at high economic and environmental cost. Harnessing ecosystem services of naturally occurring organisms is a cheaper but under-appreciated approach, because the functional roles of organisms are not linked to crop yields, especially outside the northern temperate zone. Ecosystem services in soil come from earthworms in these cooler and wetter latitudes; what may fulfill their functional role in agriculture in warmer and drier habitats, where they are absent, is unproven. Here we show in a field experiment that ants and termites increase wheat yield by 36% from increased soil water infiltration due to their tunnels and improved soil nitrogen. Our results suggest that ants and termites have similar functional roles to earthworms, and that they may provide valuable ecosystem services in dryland agriculture, which may become increasingly important for agricultural sustainability in arid climates.

Increased yield stability of field-grown winter barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) varietal mixtures through ecological processes

PubMed Central

Creissen, Henry E.; Jorgensen, Tove H.; Brown, James K.M.

2016-01-01

Crop variety mixtures have the potential to increase yield stability in highly variable and unpredictable environments, yet knowledge of the specific mechanisms underlying enhanced yield stability has been limited. Ecological processes in genetically diverse crops were investigated by conducting field trials with winter barley varieties (Hordeum vulgare), grown as monocultures or as three-way mixtures in fungicide treated and untreated plots at three sites. Mixtures achieved yields comparable to the best performing monocultures whilst enhancing yield stability despite being subject to multiple predicted and unpredicted abiotic and biotic stresses including brown rust (Puccinia hordei) and lodging. There was compensation through competitive release because the most competitive variety overyielded in mixtures thereby compensating for less competitive varieties. Facilitation was also identified as an important ecological process within mixtures by reducing lodging. This study indicates that crop varietal mixtures have the capacity to stabilise productivity even when environmental conditions and stresses are not predicted in advance. Varietal mixtures provide a means of increasing crop genetic diversity without the need for extensive breeding efforts. They may confer enhanced resilience to environmental stresses and thus be a desirable component of future cropping systems for sustainable arable farming. PMID:27375312

Network Candidate Genes in Breeding for Drought Tolerant Crops

PubMed Central

Krannich, Christoph Tim; Maletzki, Lisa; Kurowsky, Christina; Horn, Renate

2015-01-01

Climate change leading to increased periods of low water availability as well as increasing demands for food in the coming years makes breeding for drought tolerant crops a high priority. Plants have developed diverse strategies and mechanisms to survive drought stress. However, most of these represent drought escape or avoidance strategies like early flowering or low stomatal conductance that are not applicable in breeding for crops with high yields under drought conditions. Even though a great deal of research is ongoing, especially in cereals, in this regard, not all mechanisms involved in drought tolerance are yet understood. The identification of candidate genes for drought tolerance that have a high potential to be used for breeding drought tolerant crops represents a challenge. Breeding for drought tolerant crops has to focus on acceptable yields under water-limited conditions and not on survival. However, as more and more knowledge about the complex networks and the cross talk during drought is available, more options are revealed. In addition, it has to be considered that conditioning a crop for drought tolerance might require the production of metabolites and might cost the plants energy and resources that cannot be used in terms of yield. Recent research indicates that yield penalty exists and efficient breeding for drought tolerant crops with acceptable yields under well-watered and drought conditions might require uncoupling yield penalty from drought tolerance. PMID:26193269

Network Candidate Genes in Breeding for Drought Tolerant Crops.

PubMed

Krannich, Christoph Tim; Maletzki, Lisa; Kurowsky, Christina; Horn, Renate

2015-07-17

Climate change leading to increased periods of low water availability as well as increasing demands for food in the coming years makes breeding for drought tolerant crops a high priority. Plants have developed diverse strategies and mechanisms to survive drought stress. However, most of these represent drought escape or avoidance strategies like early flowering or low stomatal conductance that are not applicable in breeding for crops with high yields under drought conditions. Even though a great deal of research is ongoing, especially in cereals, in this regard, not all mechanisms involved in drought tolerance are yet understood. The identification of candidate genes for drought tolerance that have a high potential to be used for breeding drought tolerant crops represents a challenge. Breeding for drought tolerant crops has to focus on acceptable yields under water-limited conditions and not on survival. However, as more and more knowledge about the complex networks and the cross talk during drought is available, more options are revealed. In addition, it has to be considered that conditioning a crop for drought tolerance might require the production of metabolites and might cost the plants energy and resources that cannot be used in terms of yield. Recent research indicates that yield penalty exists and efficient breeding for drought tolerant crops with acceptable yields under well-watered and drought conditions might require uncoupling yield penalty from drought tolerance.

Effects of Management Practices on Meloidogyne incognita and Snap Bean Yield.

PubMed

Smittle, D A; Johnson, A W

1982-01-01

Phenamiphos applied at 6.7 kg ai/ha through a solid set or a center pivot irrigation system with 28 mm of water effectively controlled root-knot nematodes, Meloidogyne incognita, and resulted in greater snap bean growth and yields irrespective of growing season, tillage method, or cover crop system. The percentage yield increases attributed to this method of M. incognita control over nontreated controls were 45% in the spring crop, and 90% and 409% in the fall crops following winter rye and fallow, respectively. Root galling was not affected by tillage systems or cover crop, but disk tillage resulted in over 50% reduction in bean yield compared with yields from the subsoil-bed tillage system.

Evaluation of preservation methods for improving biogas production and enzymatic conversion yields of annual crops

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The use of energy crops and agricultural residues is expected to increase to fulfil the legislative demands of bio-based components in transport fuels. Ensiling methods, adapted from the feed sector, are suitable storage methods to preserve fresh crops throughout the year for, for example, biogas production. Various preservation methods, namely ensiling with and without acid addition for whole crop maize, fibre hemp and faba bean were investigated. For the drier fibre hemp, alkaline urea treatment was studied as well. These treatments were also explored as mild pretreatment methods to improve the disassembly and hydrolysis of these lignocellulosic substrates. Results The investigated storage treatments increased the availability of the substrates for biogas production from hemp and in most cases from whole maize but not from faba bean. Ensiling of hemp, without or with addition of formic acid, increased methane production by more than 50% compared to fresh hemp. Ensiling resulted in substantially increased methane yields also from maize, and the use of formic acid in ensiling of maize further enhanced methane yields by 16%, as compared with fresh maize. Ensiled faba bean, in contrast, yielded somewhat less methane than the fresh material. Acidic additives preserved and even increased the amount of the valuable water-soluble carbohydrates during storage, which affected most significantly the enzymatic hydrolysis yield of maize. However, preservation without additives decreased the enzymatic hydrolysis yield especially in maize, due to its high content of soluble sugars that were already converted to acids during storage. Urea-based preservation significantly increased the enzymatic hydrolysability of hemp. Hemp, preserved with urea, produced the highest carbohydrate increase of 46% in enzymatic hydrolysis as compared to the fresh material. Alkaline pretreatment conditions of hemp improved also the methane yields. Conclusions The results of the present work show that ensiling and alkaline preservation of fresh crop materials are useful pretreatment methods for methane production. Improvements in enzymatic hydrolysis were also promising. While all three crops still require a more powerful pretreatment to release the maximum amount of carbohydrates, anaerobic preservation is clearly a suitable storage and pretreatment method prior to production of platform sugars from fresh crops. PMID:21771298

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

PubMed

Wang, Enli; Martre, Pierre; Zhao, Zhigan; Ewert, Frank; Maiorano, Andrea; Rötter, Reimund P; Kimball, Bruce A; Ottman, Michael J; Wall, Gerard W; White, Jeffrey W; Reynolds, Matthew P; Alderman, Phillip D; Aggarwal, Pramod K; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andrew J; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A; Izaurralde, Roberto C; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D; Kersebaum, Kurt C; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Liu, Leilei; Müller, Christoph; Naresh Kumar, Soora; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry; Olesen, Jørgen E; Palosuo, Taru; Priesack, Eckart; Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan; Ripoche, Dominique; Ruane, Alex C; Semenov, Mikhail A; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stöckle, Claudio; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Zhimin; Wolf, Joost; Zhu, Yan; Asseng, Senthold

2017-07-17

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections.

The Uncertainty of Crop Yield Projections Is Reduced by Improved Temperature Response Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Enli; Martre, Pierre; Zhao, Zhigan; Ewert, Frank; Maiorano, Andrea; Rotter, Reimund P.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Ottman, Michael J.; White, Jeffrey W.; Reynolds, Matthew P.;

Breaking continuous potato cropping with legumes improves soil microbial communities, enzyme activities and tuber yield

PubMed Central

Qin, Shuhao; Yeboah, Stephen; Cao, Li; Zhang, Junlian; Shi, Shangli; Liu, Yuhui

2017-01-01

This study was conducted to explore the changes in soil microbial populations, enzyme activity, and tuber yield under the rotation sequences of Potato–Common vetch (P–C), Potato–Black medic (P–B) and Potato–Longdong alfalfa (P–L) in a semi–arid area of China. The study also determined the effects of continuous potato cropping (without legumes) on the above mentioned soil properties and yield. The number of bacteria increased significantly (p < 0.05) under P–B rotation by 78%, 85% and 83% in the 2, 4 and 7–year continuous cropping soils, respectively compared to P–C rotation. The highest fungi/bacteria ratio was found in P–C (0.218), followed by P–L (0.184) and then P–B (0.137) rotation over the different cropping years. In the continuous potato cropping soils, the greatest fungi/bacteria ratio was recorded in the 4–year (0.4067) and 7–year (0.4238) cropping soils and these were significantly higher than 1–year (0.3041), 2–year (0.2545) and 3–year (0.3030) cropping soils. Generally, actinomycetes numbers followed the trend P–L>P–C>P–B. The P–L rotation increased aerobic azotobacters in 2–year (by 26% and 18%) and 4–year (40% and 21%) continuous cropping soils compared to P–C and P–B rotation, respectively. Generally, the highest urease and alkaline phosphate activity, respectively, were observed in P–C (55.77 mg g–1) and (27.71 mg g–1), followed by P–B (50.72 mg mg–1) and (25.64 mg g–1) and then P–L (41.61 mg g–1) and (23.26 mg g–1) rotation. Soil urease, alkaline phosphatase and hydrogen peroxidase activities decreased with increasing years of continuous potato cropping. On average, the P–B rotation significantly increased (p <0.05) tuber yield by 19% and 18%, compared to P–C and P–L rotation respectively. P–L rotation also increased potato tuber yield compared to P–C, but the effect was lesser relative to P–B rotation. These results suggest that adopting potato–legume rotation system has the potential to improve soil biology environment, alleviate continuous cropping obstacle and increase potato tuber yield in semi–arid region. PMID:28463981

Reducing N2O and NO emissions while sustaining crop productivity in a Chinese vegetable-cereal double cropping system.

PubMed

Yao, Zhisheng; Yan, Guangxuan; Zheng, Xunhua; Wang, Rui; Liu, Chunyan; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus

2017-12-01

High nitrogen (N) inputs in Chinese vegetable and cereal productions played key roles in increasing crop yields. However, emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and atmospheric pollutant nitric oxide (NO) increased too. For lowering the environmental costs of crop production, it is essential to optimize N strategies to maintain high crop productivity, while reducing the associated N losses. We performed a 2 year-round field study regarding the effect of different combinations of poultry manure and chemical N fertilizers on crop yields, N use efficiency (NUE) and N 2 O and NO fluxes from a Welsh onion-winter wheat system in the North China Plain. Annual N 2 O and NO emissions averaged 1.14-3.82 kg N ha -1 yr -1 (or 5.54-13.06 g N kg -1 N uptake) and 0.57-1.87 kg N ha -1 yr -1 (or 2.78-6.38 g N kg -1 N uptake) over all treatments, respectively. Both N 2 O and NO emissions increased linearly with increasing total N inputs, and the mean annual direct emission factors (EF d ) were 0.39% for N 2 O and 0.19% for NO. Interestingly, the EF d for chemical N fertilizers (N 2 O: 0.42-0.48%; NO: 0.07-0.11%) was significantly lower than for manure N (N 2 O: 1.35%; NO: 0.76%). Besides, a negative power relationship between yield-scaled N 2 O, NO or N 2 O + NO emissions and NUE was observed, suggesting that improving NUE in crop production is crucial for increasing crop yields while decreasing nitrogenous gas release. Compared to the current farmers' fertilization rate, alternative practices with reduced chemical N fertilizers increased NUE and decreased annual N 2 O + NO emissions substantially, while crop yields remained unaffected. As a result, annual yield-scaled N 2 O + NO emissions were reduced by > 20%. Our study shows that a reduction of current application rates of chemical N fertilizers by 30-50% does not affect crop productivity, while at the same time N 2 O and NO emissions would be reduced significantly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia; Wang, Chunyi; Chen, Sining

2017-11-01

Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop productions with considering uncertainties is essential for properly identifying and decision-making agricultural practices that are sustainable. In this study, we employed 24 climate projections consisting of the combinations of eight GCMs and three emission scenarios representing the climate projections uncertainty, and two crop statistical models with 100 sets of parameters in each model representing parameter uncertainty within the crop models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize ( Zea mays L.) yield at three locations (Benxi, Changling, and Hailun) across Northeast China (NEC) in periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, taking 1976-2005 as the baseline period. The multi-models ensembles method is an effective way to deal with the uncertainties. The results of ensemble simulations showed that maize yield reductions were less than 5 % in both future periods relative to the baseline. To further understand the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty, such as climate projections and crop model parameters, in ensemble yield simulations, variance decomposition was performed. The results indicated that the uncertainty from climate projections was much larger than that contributed by crop model parameters. Increased ensemble yield variance revealed the increasing uncertainty in the yield simulation in the future periods.

The importance of key floral bioactive compounds to honey bees for the detection and attraction of hybrid vegetable crops and increased seed yield.

PubMed

Mas, Flore; Harper, Aimee; Horner, Rachael; Welsh, Taylor; Jaksons, Peter; Suckling, David M

2018-02-15

Crop breeding programmes generally select for traits for improved yield and human consumption preferences. Yet, they often overlook one fundamental trait essential for insect-pollinated crops: pollinator attraction. This is even more critical for hybrid plants that rely on cross-pollination between the male-fertile line and the male-sterile line to set seeds. This study investigated the role of floral odours for honey bee pollination that could explain the poor seed yield in hybrid crops. The key floral bioactive compounds that honey bees detect were identified for three vegetable hybrid crops. It was found that 30% of the variation in bioactive compound quantities was explained by variety. Differences in quantities of the bioactive compounds triggered different degrees of olfactory response and were also associated with varied appetitive response. Correlating the abundance of each bioactive compound with seed yield, it was found that aldehydes such as nonanal and decanal can have a strong negative influence on seed yield with increasing quantity. Using these methodologies to identify relevant bioactive compounds associated with honey bee pollination, plant breeding programmes should also consider selecting for floral traits attractive to honey bees to improve crop pollination for enhanced seed yield. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Increased Night Temperature Negatively Affects Grain Yield, Biomass and Grain Number in Chilean Quinoa

PubMed Central

Lesjak, Jurka; Calderini, Daniel F.

2017-01-01

Quinoa high nutritive value increases interest worldwide, especially as a crop that could potentially feature in different cropping systems, however, climate change, particularly rising temperatures, challenges this and other crop species. Currently, only limited knowledge exists regarding the grain yield and other key traits response to higher temperatures of this crop, especially to increased night temperatures. In this context, the main objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of increased night temperature on quinoa yield, grain number, individual grain weight and processes involved in crop growth under the environmental conditions (control treatment) and night thermal increase at two phases: flowering (T1) and grain filling (T2) in southern Chile. A commercial genotype, Regalona, and a quinoa accession (Cod. BO5, N°191, grain bank from Semillas Baer, hereby referred to as Accession) were used, due to their adaptability to Southern Chilean conditions and contrasting grain yield potential, grain weight and size of plants. Temperature was increased ≈4°C above the ambient from 8 pm until 9 am the next morning. Control treatments reached a high grain yield (600 and 397 g m-2, i.e., Regalona and Accession). Temperature increase reduced grain yield by 31% under T1 treatment and 12% when under T2 in Regalona and 23 and 26% in Accession, respectively. Aboveground biomass was negatively affected by the thermal treatments and a positive linear association was found between grain yield and aboveground biomass across treatments. By contrast, the harvest index was unaffected either by genotype, or by thermal treatments. Grain number was significantly affected between treatments and this key trait was linearly associated with grain yield. On the other hand, grain weight showed a narrow range of variation across treatments. Additionally, leaf area index was not affected, but significant differences were found in SPAD values at the end of T1 treatment, compared to control. Little change was found in the harvest index, individual grain weight, grain protein content or water soluble carbohydrates in response to the increased night temperature in this crop. PMID:28386266

Simulating the effects of climate and agricultural management practices on global crop yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, D.; Sacks, W. J.; Barford, C. C.; Ramankutty, N.

2011-06-01

Climate change is expected to significantly impact global food production, and it is important to understand the potential geographic distribution of yield losses and the means to alleviate them. This study presents a new global crop model, PEGASUS 1.0 (Predicting Ecosystem Goods And Services Using Scenarios) that integrates, in addition to climate, the effect of planting dates and cultivar choices, irrigation, and fertilizer application on crop yield for maize, soybean, and spring wheat. PEGASUS combines carbon dynamics for crops with a surface energy and soil water balance model. It also benefits from the recent development of a suite of global data sets and analyses that serve as model inputs or as calibration data. These include data on crop planting and harvesting dates, crop-specific irrigated areas, a global analysis of yield gaps, and harvested area and yield of major crops. Model results for present-day climate and farm management compare reasonably well with global data. Simulated planting and harvesting dates are within the range of crop calendar observations in more than 75% of the total crop-harvested areas. Correlation of simulated and observed crop yields indicates a weighted coefficient of determination, with the weighting based on crop-harvested area, of 0.81 for maize, 0.66 for soybean, and 0.45 for spring wheat. We found that changes in temperature and precipitation as predicted by global climate models for the 2050s lead to a global yield reduction if planting and harvesting dates remain unchanged. However, adapting planting dates and cultivar choices increases yield in temperate regions and avoids 7-18% of global losses.

Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

2016-09-01

Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

Variability in soybean yield in Brazil stemming from the interaction of heterogeneous management and climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, A.; Bragança, A.; Jeffries, G. R.

2017-12-01

An increasing share of global agricultural production can be found in the humid tropics. Therefore, an improved understanding of the mechanisms governing variability in the output of tropical agricultural systems is of increasing importance for food security including through climate change adaptation. Yet, the long window over which many tropical crops can be sown, the diversity of crop varieties and management practices combine to challenge inference into climate risk to cropping output in analyses of tropical crop-climate sensitivity employing administrative data. In this paper, we leverage a newly developed spatially explicit dataset of soybean yields in Brazil to combat this problem. The dataset was built by training a model of remotely-sensed vegetation index data and land cover classification data using a rich in situ dataset of soybean yield and management variables collected over the period 2006 to 2016. The dataset contains soybean yields by plant date, cropping frequency, and maturity group for each 5km grid cell in Brazil. We model variation in these yields using an approach enabling the estimation of the influence of management factors on the sensitivity of soybean yields to variability in: cumulative solar radiation, extreme degree days, growing degree days, flooding rain in the harvest period, and dry spells in the rainy season. We find strong variation in climate sensitivity by management class. Planting date and maturity group each explained a great deal more variation in yield sensitivity than did cropping frequency. Brazil collects comparatively fine spatial resolution yield data. But, our attempt to replicate our results using administrative soy yield data revealed substantially lesser crop-climate sensitivity; suggesting that previous analyses employing administrative data may have underestimated climate risk to tropical soy production.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE PAGES

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; ...

2017-06-27

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Estimating the Impact and Spillover Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northern Ghana.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botchway, E.

2016-12-01

In tropical regions of the world human-induced climate change is likely to impact negatively on crop yields. To investigate the impact of climate change and its spillover effect on mean and variance of crop yields in northern Ghana, the Just and Pope stochastic production function and the Spatial Durbin model were adopted. Surprisingly, the results suggest that both precipitation and average temperature have positive effects on mean crop yield during the wet season. Wet season average temperature has a significant spillover effect in the region, whereas precipitation during the wet season has only one significant spillover effect on maize yield. Wet season precipitation does not have a strong significant effect on crop yield despite the rainfed nature of agriculture in the region. Thus, even if there are losers and winners as a result of future climate change at the regional level, future crop yield would largely depend on future technological development in agriculture, which may improve yields over time despite the changing climate. We argue, therefore, that technical improvement in farm management such as improved seeds and fertilizers, conservation tillage and better pest control, may have a more significant role in increasing observed crop productivity levels over time. So investigating the relative importance of non-climatic factors on crop yield may shed more light on where appropriate interventions can help in improving crop yields. Climate change, also, needs to be urgently assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation.

Plant-based assessment of inherent soil productivity and contributions to China's cereal crop yield increase since 1980.

PubMed

Fan, Mingsheng; Lal, Rattan; Cao, Jian; Qiao, Lei; Su, Yansen; Jiang, Rongfeng; Zhang, Fusuo

2013-01-01

China's food production has increased 6-fold during the past half-century, thanks to increased yields resulting from the management intensification, accomplished through greater inputs of fertilizer, water, new crop strains, and other Green Revolution's technologies. Yet, changes in underlying quality of soils and their effects on yield increase remain to be determined. Here, we provide a first attempt to quantify historical changes in inherent soil productivity and their contributions to the increase in yield. The assessment was conducted based on data-set derived from 7410 on-farm trials, 8 long-term experiments and an inventory of soil organic matter concentrations of arable land. Results show that even without organic and inorganic fertilizer addition crop yield from on-farm trials conducted in the 2000s was significantly higher compared with those in the 1980s - the increase ranged from 0.73 to 1.76 Mg/ha for China's major irrigated cereal-based cropping systems. The increase in on-farm yield in control plot since 1980s was due primarily to the enhancement of soil-related factors, and reflected inherent soil productivity improvement. The latter led to higher and stable yield with adoption of improved management practices, and contributed 43% to the increase in yield for wheat and 22% for maize in the north China, and, 31%, 35% and 22% for early and late rice in south China and for single rice crop in the Yangtze River Basin since 1980. Thus, without an improvement in inherent soil productivity, the 'Agricultural Miracle in China' would not have happened. A comprehensive strategy of inherent soil productivity improvement in China, accomplished through combining engineering-based measures with biological-approaches, may be an important lesson for the developing world. We propose that advancing food security in 21st century for both China and other parts of world will depend on continuously improving inherent soil productivity.

Plant-Based Assessment of Inherent Soil Productivity and Contributions to China’s Cereal Crop Yield Increase since 1980

PubMed Central

Fan, Mingsheng; Lal, Rattan; Cao, Jian; Qiao, Lei; Su, Yansen; Jiang, Rongfeng; Zhang, Fusuo

2013-01-01

Objective China’s food production has increased 6-fold during the past half-century, thanks to increased yields resulting from the management intensification, accomplished through greater inputs of fertilizer, water, new crop strains, and other Green Revolution’s technologies. Yet, changes in underlying quality of soils and their effects on yield increase remain to be determined. Here, we provide a first attempt to quantify historical changes in inherent soil productivity and their contributions to the increase in yield. Methods The assessment was conducted based on data-set derived from 7410 on-farm trials, 8 long-term experiments and an inventory of soil organic matter concentrations of arable land. Results Results show that even without organic and inorganic fertilizer addition crop yield from on-farm trials conducted in the 2000s was significantly higher compared with those in the 1980s — the increase ranged from 0.73 to 1.76 Mg/ha for China’s major irrigated cereal-based cropping systems. The increase in on-farm yield in control plot since 1980s was due primarily to the enhancement of soil-related factors, and reflected inherent soil productivity improvement. The latter led to higher and stable yield with adoption of improved management practices, and contributed 43% to the increase in yield for wheat and 22% for maize in the north China, and, 31%, 35% and 22% for early and late rice in south China and for single rice crop in the Yangtze River Basin since 1980. Conclusions Thus, without an improvement in inherent soil productivity, the ‘Agricultural Miracle in China’ would not have happened. A comprehensive strategy of inherent soil productivity improvement in China, accomplished through combining engineering-based measures with biological-approaches, may be an important lesson for the developing world. We propose that advancing food security in 21st century for both China and other parts of world will depend on continuously improving inherent soil productivity. PMID:24058605

Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Glotter, Michael; Hoek, Steven;

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiong, Wei; Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, M.

Crop models are increasingly used to assess impacts of climate change/variability and management practices on productivity and environmental performance of alternative cropping systems. Calibration is an important procedure to improve reliability of model simulations, especially for large area applications. However, global-scale crop model calibration has rarely been exercised due to limited data availability and expensive computing cost. Here we present a simple approach to calibrate Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model for a global implementation of rice. We identify four parameters (potential heat unit – PHU, planting density – PD, harvest index – HI, and biomass energy ratio – BER)more » and calibrate them regionally to capture the spatial pattern of reported rice yield in 2000. Model performance is assessed by comparing simulated outputs with independent FAO national data. The comparison demonstrates that the global calibration scheme performs satisfactorily in reproducing the spatial pattern of rice yield, particularly in main rice production areas. Spatial agreement increases substantially when more parameters are selected and calibrated, but with varying efficiencies. Among the parameters, PHU and HI exhibit the highest efficiencies in increasing the spatial agreement. Simulations with different calibration strategies generate a pronounced discrepancy of 5–35% in mean yields across latitude bands, and a small to moderate difference in estimated yield variability and yield changing trend for the period of 1981–2000. Present calibration has little effects in improving simulated yield variability and trends at both regional and global levels, suggesting further works are needed to reproduce temporal variability of reported yields. This study highlights the importance of crop models’ calibration, and presents the possibility of a transparent and consistent up scaling approach for global crop simulations given current availability of global databases of weather, soil, crop calendar, fertilizer and irrigation management information, and reported yield.« less

The Response of Durum Wheat to the Preceding Crop in a Mediterranean Environment

PubMed Central

Ercoli, Laura; Masoni, Alessandro; Pampana, Silvia; Mariotti, Marco; Arduini, Iduna

2014-01-01

Crop sequence is an important management practice that may affect durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) production. Field research was conducted in 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 seasons in a rain-fed cold Mediterranean environment to examine the impact of the preceding crops alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), maize (Zea mays L.), sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.), and bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) on yield and N uptake of four durum wheat varieties. The response of grain yield of durum wheat to the preceding crop was high in 2007-2008 and was absent in the 2008-2009 season, because of the heavy rainfall that negatively impacted establishment, vegetative growth, and grain yield of durum wheat due to waterlogging. In the first season, durum wheat grain yield was highest following alfalfa, and was 33% lower following wheat. The yield increase of durum wheat following alfalfa was mainly due to an increased number of spikes per unit area and number of kernels per spike, while the yield decrease following wheat was mainly due to a reduction of spike number per unit area. Variety growth habit and performance did not affect the response to preceding crop and varieties ranked in the order Levante > Saragolla = Svevo > Normanno. PMID:25401153

Food for Thought: Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin in an Altered Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Kruger, C.; Brady, M.; Adam, J. C.

2013-12-01

Growth of global population and food consumption in the next several decades is expected to result in a food security challenge. Strategies to address this challenge, such as enhancing agricultural productivity and resiliency, need to be considered within the context of a full range of plausible consequences so as to identify investments that create win-win-win scenarios for the environment, economy, and society. Regional earth systems models can provide the necessary scale-appropriate framework to inform the decision making context for adaptation strategies, especially in the context of global change. In an altered future, changes to climate, technology and socioeconomics affect regional agriculture both directly and indirectly. These effects are not independent and an integrated process-based model may better capture unanticipated non-linear and non-monotonic responses and feedbacks over time . BioEarth is a research initiative designed to explore the coupling of multiple stand-alone earth systems models to generate usable information for agricultural and natural resource decision making at the regional scale at decadal time-steps. This project focuses on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) region and is a framework that integrates atmospheric, terrestrial, aquatic, and economic models. We apply component models of BioEarth to the Columbia River basin in the PNW to study the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on regional irrigated and dryland crop yields for a variety of annual and perennial crops. Results indicate that the net effect of climate change on crop yields is dependent on the crop type. There is a negative effect of temperature on yields for most crops. Dryland winter wheat is a notable exception. With warming, although the available growing season increases, faster thermal accumulation results in a shorter time to maturity. Precipitation changes in the region have a positive impact on dryland agriculture. Carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization has a positive impact on crop yields for most crops. This positive impact is minimal for corn which is a C4 crop that is already CO2 efficient. The net response is an increase in yields for dryland agriculture and depends on the crop type for irrigated agriculture. Although, climate change results in increased water shortages and water rights curtailment in the region, this does not translate into an increased negative effect on yields. This could be attributed to higher water use efficiency under elevated CO2 levels as well crops getting through growth stages earlier in the season with wetter spring conditions. The non linear and non monotonic nature of the response of climate change on crop yields is discussed. In accounting for biophysical effects of climate change on crop yields, socio-economic effects cannot be ignored because biophysical effects are nested with the framework of human decision making. We also discuss our results in the context of socioeconomic factors . Current results assume no adaptation strategies and incorporating this is our next step.

Ants and termites increase crop yield in a dry climate

PubMed Central

Evans, Theodore A.; Dawes, Tracy Z.; Ward, Philip R.; Lo, Nathan

2011-01-01

Agricultural intensification has increased crop yields, but at high economic and environmental cost. Harnessing ecosystem services of naturally occurring organisms is a cheaper but under-appreciated approach, because the functional roles of organisms are not linked to crop yields, especially outside the northern temperate zone. Ecosystem services in soil come from earthworms in these cooler and wetter latitudes; what may fulfill their functional role in agriculture in warmer and drier habitats, where they are absent, is unproven. Here we show in a field experiment that ants and termites increase wheat yield by 36% from increased soil water infiltration due to their tunnels and improved soil nitrogen. Our results suggest that ants and termites have similar functional roles to earthworms, and that they may provide valuable ecosystem services in dryland agriculture, which may become increasingly important for agricultural sustainability in arid climates. PMID:21448161

Future Warming Increases Global Maize Yield Variability with Implications for Food Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tigchelaar, M.; Battisti, D. S.; Naylor, R. L.; Ray, D. K.

2017-12-01

If current trends in population growth and dietary shifts continue, the world will need to produce about 70% more food by 2050, while earth's climate is rapidly changing. Rising temperatures in particular are projected to negatively impact agricultural production, as the world's staple crops perform poorly in extreme heat. Theoretical models suggest that as temperatures rise above plants' optimal temperature for performance, not only will mean yields decline rapidly, but the variability of yields will increase, even as interannual variations in climate remain unchanged. Here we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with CMIP5 temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in major maize producing countries under 2°C and 4°C of global warming. Maize is the world's most produced crop, and is linked to other staple crops through substitution in consumption and production. We find that in warmer climates - absent any breeding gains in heat tolerance - the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere, to values much larger than present-day. This increase in CV is due both to an increase in the standard deviation of yields, and a decrease in mean yields. In locations where crop failures become the norm under high (4°C) warming (mostly in tropical, low-yield environments), the standard deviation of yields ultimately decreases. The probability that in any given year the most productive areas in the top three maize producing countries (United States, China, Brazil) have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% is virtually zero under present-day climate conditions, but increases to 12% under 2°C warming, and 89% under 4°C warming. This has major implications for global food markets and staple crop prices, affecting especially the 2.5 billion people that comprise the world's poor, who already spend the majority of their disposable income on food and are particularly vulnerable to agricultural price spikes.

An assessment of irrigation needs and crop yield for the United States under potential climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brumbelow, Kelly; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2000-01-01

Past assessments of climate change on U.S. agriculture have mostly focused on changes in crop yield. Few studies have included the entire conterminous U.S., and few studies have assessed changing irrigation requirements. None have included the effects of changing soil moisture characteristics as determined by changing climatic forcing. This study assesses changes in irrigation requirements and crop yields for five crops in the areas of the U.S. where they have traditionally been grown. Physiologically-based crop models are used to incorporate inputs of climate, soils, agricultural management, and drought stress tolerance. Soil moisture values from a macroscale hydrologic model run under a future climate scenario are used to initialize soil moisture content at the beginning of each growing season. Historical crop yield data is used to calibrate model parameters and determine locally acceptable drought stress as a management parameter. Changes in irrigation demand and crop yield are assessed for both means and extremes by comparing results for atmospheric forcing close to the present climate with those for a future climate scenario. Assessments using the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis General Circulation Model (CGCM1) indicate greater irrigation demands in the southern U.S. and decreased irrigation demands in the northern and western U.S. Crop yields typically increase except for winter wheat in the southern U.S. and corn. Variability in both irrigation demands and crop yields increases in most cases. Assessment results for the CGCM1 climate scenario are compared to those for the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research GCM (HadCM2) scenario for southwestern Georgia. The comparison shows significant differences in irrigation and yield trends, both in magnitude and direction. The differences reflect the high forecast uncertainty of current GCMs. Nonetheless, both GCMs indicate higher variability in future climatic forcing and, consequently, in the response of agricultural systems.

Biodiversity management of organic farming enhances agricultural sustainability

PubMed Central

Liu, Haitao; Meng, Jie; Bo, Wenjing; Cheng, Da; Li, Yong; Guo, Liyue; Li, Caihong; Zheng, Yanhai; Liu, Meizhen; Ning, Tangyuan; Wu, Guanglei; Yu, Xiaofan; Feng, Sufei; Wuyun, Tana; Li, Jing; Li, Lijun; Zeng, Yan; Liu, Shi V.; Jiang, Gaoming

2016-01-01

Organic farming (OF) has been believed to be capable of curtailing some hazardous effects associated with chemical farming (CF). However, debates also exist on whether OF can feed a world with increasing human population. We hypothesized that some improvements on OF may produce adequate crops and reduce environmental pollutions from CF. This paper makes comparative analysis of crop yield, soil organic matter and economic benefits within the practice on Biodiversity Management of Organic Farming (BMOF) at Hongyi Organic Farm (HOF) over eight years and between BMOF and CF. Linking crop production with livestock to maximal uses of by-products from each production and avoid xenobiotic chemicals, we have achieved beneficial improvement in soil properties, effective pest and weed control, and increased crop yields. After eight years experiment, we have obtained a gradual but stable increase in crop yields with a 9.6-fold increase of net income. The net income of HOF was 258,827 dollars and 24,423 dollars in 2014 and 2007 respectively. Thus, BMOF can not only feed more population, but also increase adaptive capacity of agriculture ecosystems and gain much higher economic benefits. PMID:27032369

Biodiversity management of organic farming enhances agricultural sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Haitao; Meng, Jie; Bo, Wenjing; Cheng, Da; Li, Yong; Guo, Liyue; Li, Caihong; Zheng, Yanhai; Liu, Meizhen; Ning, Tangyuan; Wu, Guanglei; Yu, Xiaofan; Feng, Sufei; Wuyun, Tana; Li, Jing; Li, Lijun; Zeng, Yan; Liu, Shi V.; Jiang, Gaoming

2016-04-01

Organic farming (OF) has been believed to be capable of curtailing some hazardous effects associated with chemical farming (CF). However, debates also exist on whether OF can feed a world with increasing human population. We hypothesized that some improvements on OF may produce adequate crops and reduce environmental pollutions from CF. This paper makes comparative analysis of crop yield, soil organic matter and economic benefits within the practice on Biodiversity Management of Organic Farming (BMOF) at Hongyi Organic Farm (HOF) over eight years and between BMOF and CF. Linking crop production with livestock to maximal uses of by-products from each production and avoid xenobiotic chemicals, we have achieved beneficial improvement in soil properties, effective pest and weed control, and increased crop yields. After eight years experiment, we have obtained a gradual but stable increase in crop yields with a 9.6-fold increase of net income. The net income of HOF was 258,827 dollars and 24,423 dollars in 2014 and 2007 respectively. Thus, BMOF can not only feed more population, but also increase adaptive capacity of agriculture ecosystems and gain much higher economic benefits.

Regional simulation of soil nitrogen dynamics and balance in Swiss cropping systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Juhwan; Necpalova, Magdalena; Six, Johan

2017-04-01

We evaluated the regional-scale potential of various crop and soil management practices to reduce the dependency of crop N demand on external N inputs and N losses to the environment. The estimates of soil N balance were simulated and compared under alternative and conventional crop production across all Swiss cropland. Alternative practices were all combinations of organic fertilization, reduced tillage and winter cover cropping. Using the DayCent model, we simulated changes in crop N yields as well as the contribution of inputs and outputs to soil N balance by alternative practices, which was complemented with corresponding measurements from available long-term field experiments and site-level simulations. In addition, the effects of reducing (between 0% and 80% of recommended application rates) or increasing chemical fertilizer input rates (between 120% and 300% of recommended application rates) on system-level N dynamics were also simulated. Modeled yields at recommended N rates were only 37-87% of the maximum yield potential across common Swiss crops, and crop productivity were sensitive to the level of external N inputs, except for grass-clover mixture, soybean and peas. Overall, differences in soil N input and output decreased or increased proportionally with changing the amount of N input only from the recommended rate. As a result, there was no additional difference in soil N balance in response to N application rates. Nitrate leaching accounted for 40-81% of total N output differences, while up to 47% of total N output occurred through harvest and straw removal. Regardless of crops, yield potential became insensitive to high N rates. Differences in N2O and N2 emissions slightly increased with increasing N inputs, in which each gas was only responsible for about 1% of changes in total N output. Overall, there was a positive soil N balance under alternative practices. Particularly, considerable improvement in soil N balance was expected when slowly decomposed organic fertilizer was used in combination with cover cropping and/or reduced tillage. However, the increase in soil N balance was due to the decreases in harvested yield and nitrate leaching under these organic cropping based practices. Instead, the use of fast decomposed organic matter with cover cropping could be considered to avoid any yield penalty while decreasing nitrate leaching, hence reducing total N output. In order to effectively reduce N losses from soils, approaches to utilize multiple alternative options should be taken into account at the regional scale.

Towards a Solid Foundation of Using Remotely Sensed Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence for Crop Monitoring and Yield Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Sun, Y.; You, L.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

The growing demand for food production due to population increase coupled with high vulnerability to volatile environmental changes poses a paramount challenge for mankind in the coming century. Real-time crop monitoring and yield forecasting must be a key part of any solution to this challenge as these activities provide vital information needed for effective and efficient crop management and for decision making. However, traditional methods of crop growth monitoring (e.g., remotely sensed vegetation indices) do not directly relate to the most important function of plants - photosynthesis and therefore crop yield. The recent advance in the satellite remote sensing of Solar-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), an integrative photosynthetic signal from molecular origin and a direct measure of plant functions holds great promise for real-time monitoring of crop growth conditions and forecasting yields. In this study, we use satellite measurements of SIF from both the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) onboard MetOp-A and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellites to estimate crop yield using both process-based and statistical models. We find that SIF-based crop yield well correlates with the global yield product Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) derived from ground surveys for all major crops including maize, soybean, wheat, sorghum, and rice. The potential and challenges of using upcoming SIF satellite missions for crop monitoring and prediction will also be discussed.

Climate-Driven Crop Yield and Yield Variability and Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. Great Plains Agricultural Production.

PubMed

Kukal, Meetpal S; Irmak, Suat

2018-02-22

Climate variability and trends affect global crop yields and are characterized as highly dependent on location, crop type, and irrigation. U.S. Great Plains, due to its significance in national food production, evident climate variability, and extensive irrigation is an ideal region of investigation for climate impacts on food production. This paper evaluates climate impacts on maize, sorghum, and soybean yields and effect of irrigation for individual counties in this region by employing extensive crop yield and climate datasets from 1968-2013. Variability in crop yields was a quarter of the regional average yields, with a quarter of this variability explained by climate variability, and temperature and precipitation explained these in singularity or combination at different locations. Observed temperature trend was beneficial for maize yields, but detrimental for sorghum and soybean yields, whereas observed precipitation trend was beneficial for all three crops. Irrigated yields demonstrated increased robustness and an effective mitigation strategy against climate impacts than their non-irrigated counterparts by a considerable fraction. The information, data, and maps provided can serve as an assessment guide for planners, managers, and policy- and decision makers to prioritize agricultural resilience efforts and resource allocation or re-allocation in the regions that exhibit risk from climate variability.

Interactive effects of pests increase seed yield.

PubMed

Gagic, Vesna; Riggi, Laura Ga; Ekbom, Barbara; Malsher, Gerard; Rusch, Adrien; Bommarco, Riccardo

2016-04-01

Loss in seed yield and therefore decrease in plant fitness due to simultaneous attacks by multiple herbivores is not necessarily additive, as demonstrated in evolutionary studies on wild plants. However, it is not clear how this transfers to crop plants that grow in very different conditions compared to wild plants. Nevertheless, loss in crop seed yield caused by any single pest is most often studied in isolation although crop plants are attacked by many pests that can cause substantial yield losses. This is especially important for crops able to compensate and even overcompensate for the damage. We investigated the interactive impacts on crop yield of four insect pests attacking different plant parts at different times during the cropping season. In 15 oilseed rape fields in Sweden, we estimated the damage caused by seed and stem weevils, pollen beetles, and pod midges. Pest pressure varied drastically among fields with very low correlation among pests, allowing us to explore interactive impacts on yield from attacks by multiple species. The plant damage caused by each pest species individually had, as expected, either no, or a negative impact on seed yield and the strongest negative effect was caused by pollen beetles. However, seed yield increased when plant damage caused by both seed and stem weevils was high, presumably due to the joint plant compensatory reaction to insect attack leading to overcompensation. Hence, attacks by several pests can change the impact on yield of individual pest species. Economic thresholds based on single species, on which pest management decisions currently rely, may therefore result in economically suboptimal choices being made and unnecessary excessive use of insecticides.

Moderating diets to feed the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Kyle F.; D'Odorico, Paolo; Rulli, Maria Cristina

2014-10-01

Population growth, dietary changes, and increasing biofuel use are placing unprecedented pressure on the global food system. While this demand likely cannot be met by expanding agricultural lands, much of the world's cropland can attain higher crop yields. Therefore, it is important to examine whether increasing crop productivity to the maximum attainable yield (i.e., yield gap closure) alone can substantially improve food security at global and national scales. Here we show that closing yield gaps through conventional technological development (i.e., fertilizers and irrigation) can potentially meet future global demand if diets are moderated and crop-based biofuel production is limited. In particular, we find that increases in dietary demand will be largely to blame should crop production fall short of demand. In converting projected diets to a globally adequate diet (3000 kcal/cap/d; 20% animal kcal) under current agrofuel use, we find that 1.8-2.6 billion additional people can be fed in 2030 and 2.1-3.1 billion additional people in 2050, depending on the extent to which yields can improve in those periods. Therefore, the simple combination of yield gap closure and moderating diets offers promise for feeding the world's population but only if long-term sustainability is the focus.

Effect of Irrigation to Winter Wheat on the Radiation Use Efficiency and Yield of Summer Maize in a Double Cropping System

PubMed Central

Quanqi, Li; Yuhai, Chen; Xunbo, Zhou; Songlie, Yu; Changcheng, Guo

2012-01-01

In north China, double cropping of winter wheat and summer maize is a widely adopted agricultural practice, and irrigation is required to obtain a high yield from winter wheat, which results in rapid aquifer depletion. In this experiment conducted in 2001-2002, 2002-2003, and 2004-2005, we studied the effects of irrigation regimes during specific winter wheat growing stage with winter wheat and summer maize double cropping systems; we measured soil moisture before sowing (SMBS), the photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) capture ratio, grain yield, and the radiation use efficiency (RUE) of summer maize. During the winter wheat growing season, irrigation was applied at the jointing, heading, or milking stage, respectively. The results showed that increased amounts of irrigation and irrigation later in the winter wheat growing season improved SMBS for summer maize. The PAR capture ratio significantly (LSD, P < 0.05) increased with increased SMBS, primarily in the 3 spikes leaves. With improved SMBS, both the grain yield and RUE increased in all the treatments. These results indicate that winter wheat should be irrigated in later stages to achieve reasonable grain yield for both crops. PMID:22654613

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on cr...

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.

2018-06-01

We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.

2017-12-01

We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

Feeding nine billion: the challenge to sustainable crop production.

PubMed

Gregory, Peter J; George, Timothy S

2011-11-01

In the recent past there was a widespread working assumption in many countries that problems of food production had been solved, and that food security was largely a matter of distribution and access to be achieved principally by open markets. The events of 2008 challenged these assumptions, and made public a much wider debate about the costs of current food production practices to the environment and whether these could be sustained. As in the past 50 years, it is anticipated that future increases in crop production will be achieved largely by increasing yields per unit area rather than by increasing the area of cropped land. However, as yields have increased, so the ratio of photosynthetic energy captured to energy expended in crop production has decreased. This poses a considerable challenge: how to increase yield while simultaneously reducing energy consumption (allied to greenhouse gas emissions) and utilizing resources such as water and phosphate more efficiently. Given the timeframe in which the increased production has to be realized, most of the increase will need to come from crop genotypes that are being bred now, together with known agronomic and management practices that are currently under-developed.

Closing Yield Gaps: How Sustainable Can We Be?

PubMed

Pradhan, Prajal; Fischer, Günther; van Velthuizen, Harrij; Reusser, Dominik E; Kropp, Juergen P

2015-01-01

Global food production needs to be increased by 60-110% between 2005 and 2050 to meet growing food and feed demand. Intensification and/or expansion of agriculture are the two main options available to meet the growing crop demands. Land conversion to expand cultivated land increases GHG emissions and impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services. Closing yield gaps to attain potential yields may be a viable option to increase the global crop production. Traditional methods of agricultural intensification often have negative externalities. Therefore, there is a need to explore location-specific methods of sustainable agricultural intensification. We identified regions where the achievement of potential crop calorie production on currently cultivated land will meet the present and future food demand based on scenario analyses considering population growth and changes in dietary habits. By closing yield gaps in the current irrigated and rain-fed cultivated land, about 24% and 80% more crop calories can respectively be produced compared to 2000. Most countries will reach food self-sufficiency or improve their current food self-sufficiency levels if potential crop production levels are achieved. As a novel approach, we defined specific input and agricultural management strategies required to achieve the potential production by overcoming biophysical and socioeconomic constraints causing yield gaps. The management strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, advanced soil management, land improvement, management strategies coping with weather induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. Finally, we estimated the required fertilizers (N, P2O5, and K2O) to attain the potential yields. Globally, N-fertilizer application needs to increase by 45-73%, P2O5-fertilizer by 22-46%, and K2O-fertilizer by 2-3 times compared to the year 2010 to attain potential crop production. The sustainability of such agricultural intensification largely depends on the way management strategies for closing yield gaps are chosen and implemented.

Closing Yield Gaps: How Sustainable Can We Be?

PubMed Central

Pradhan, Prajal; Fischer, Günther; van Velthuizen, Harrij; Reusser, Dominik E.; Kropp, Juergen P.

2015-01-01

Global food production needs to be increased by 60–110% between 2005 and 2050 to meet growing food and feed demand. Intensification and/or expansion of agriculture are the two main options available to meet the growing crop demands. Land conversion to expand cultivated land increases GHG emissions and impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services. Closing yield gaps to attain potential yields may be a viable option to increase the global crop production. Traditional methods of agricultural intensification often have negative externalities. Therefore, there is a need to explore location-specific methods of sustainable agricultural intensification. We identified regions where the achievement of potential crop calorie production on currently cultivated land will meet the present and future food demand based on scenario analyses considering population growth and changes in dietary habits. By closing yield gaps in the current irrigated and rain-fed cultivated land, about 24% and 80% more crop calories can respectively be produced compared to 2000. Most countries will reach food self-sufficiency or improve their current food self-sufficiency levels if potential crop production levels are achieved. As a novel approach, we defined specific input and agricultural management strategies required to achieve the potential production by overcoming biophysical and socioeconomic constraints causing yield gaps. The management strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, advanced soil management, land improvement, management strategies coping with weather induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. Finally, we estimated the required fertilizers (N, P2O5, and K2O) to attain the potential yields. Globally, N-fertilizer application needs to increase by 45–73%, P2O5-fertilizer by 22–46%, and K2O-fertilizer by 2–3 times compared to the year 2010 to attain potential crop production. The sustainability of such agricultural intensification largely depends on the way management strategies for closing yield gaps are chosen and implemented. PMID:26083456

Strategies for soil-based precision agriculture in cotton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neely, Haly L.; Morgan, Cristine L. S.; Stanislav, Scott; Rouze, Gregory; Shi, Yeyin; Thomasson, J. Alex; Valasek, John; Olsenholler, Jeff

2016-05-01

The goal of precision agriculture is to increase crop yield while maximizing the use efficiency of farm resources. In this application, UAV-based systems are presenting agricultural researchers with an opportunity to study crop response to environmental and management factors in real-time without disturbing the crop. The spatial variability soil properties, which drive crop yield and quality, cannot be changed and thus keen agronomic choices with soil variability in mind have the potential to increase profits. Additionally, measuring crop stress over time and in response to management and environmental conditions may enable agronomists and plant breeders to make more informed decisions about variety selection than the traditional end-of-season yield and quality measurements. In a previous study, seed-cotton yield was measured over 4 years and compared with soil variability as mapped by a proximal soil sensor. It was found that soil properties had a significant effect on seed-cotton yield and the effect was not consistent across years due to different precipitation conditions. However, when seed-cotton yield was compared to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), as measured using a multispectral camera from a UAV, predictions improved. Further improvement was seen when soil-only pixels were removed from the analysis. On-going studies are using UAV-based data to uncover the thresholds for stress and yield potential. Long-term goals of this research include detecting stress before yield is reduced and selecting better adapted varieties.

Improving crop productivity and resource use efficiency to ensure food security and environmental quality in China.

PubMed

Fan, Mingsheng; Shen, Jianbo; Yuan, Lixing; Jiang, Rongfeng; Chen, Xinping; Davies, William J; Zhang, Fusuo

2012-01-01

In recent years, agricultural growth in China has accelerated remarkably, but most of this growth has been driven by increased yield per unit area rather than by expansion of the cultivated area. Looking towards 2030, to meet the demand for grain and to feed a growing population on the available arable land, it is suggested that annual crop production should be increased to around 580 Mt and that yield should increase by at least 2% annually. Crop production will become more difficult with climate change, resource scarcity (e.g. land, water, energy, and nutrients) and environmental degradation (e.g. declining soil quality, increased greenhouse gas emissions, and surface water eutrophication). To pursue the fastest and most practical route to improved yield, the near-term strategy is application and extension of existing agricultural technologies. This would lead to substantial improvement in crop and soil management practices, which are currently suboptimal. Two pivotal components are required if we are to follow new trajectories. First, the disciplines of soil management and agronomy need to be given increased emphasis in research and teaching, as part of a grand food security challenge. Second, continued genetic improvement in crop varieties will be vital. However, our view is that the biggest gains from improved technology will come most immediately from combinations of improved crops and improved agronomical practices. The objectives of this paper are to summarize the historical trend of crop production in China and to examine the main constraints to the further increase of crop productivity. The paper provides a perspective on the challenge faced by science and technology in agriculture which must be met both in terms of increased crop productivity but also in increased resource use efficiency and the protection of environmental quality.

Agricultural Management Practices Explain Variation in Global Yield Gaps of Major Crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, N. D.; Gerber, J. S.; Ray, D. K.; Ramankutty, N.; Foley, J. A.

2010-12-01

The continued expansion and intensification of agriculture are key drivers of global environmental change. Meeting a doubling of food demand in the next half-century will further induce environmental change, requiring either large cropland expansion into carbon- and biodiversity-rich tropical forests or increasing yields on existing croplands. Closing the “yield gaps” between the most and least productive farmers on current agricultural lands is a necessary and major step towards preserving natural ecosystems and meeting future food demand. Here we use global climate, soils, and cropland datasets to quantify yield gaps for major crops using equal-area climate analogs. Consistent with previous studies, we find large yield gaps for many crops in Eastern Europe, tropical Africa, and parts of Mexico. To analyze the drivers of yield gaps, we collected sub-national agricultural management data and built a global dataset of fertilizer application rates for over 160 crops. We constructed empirical crop yield models for each climate analog using the global management information for 17 major crops. We find that our climate-specific models explain a substantial amount of the global variation in yields. These models could be widely applied to identify management changes needed to close yield gaps, analyze the environmental impacts of agricultural intensification, and identify climate change adaptation techniques.

A data-oriented semi-process model for evaluating the yields of major crops at global scale (PRYSBI-2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

2013-12-01

Demand for major cereal crops will double by 2050 compared to the amount in 2005 due to the population growth, dietary change, and increase in biofuel use. This requires substantial efforts to increase crop yields under changing climate, water resources, and land use. In order to explore possible paths to meet the supply target, global crop modeling is a useful approach. To that end, we developed a process-based large-area crop model (called PRYSBIE-2) for major crops, including soybean. This model consisted of the enzyme kinetics model for photosynthetic carbon assimilation and soil water balance model from SWAT. The parameter values on water stress, nitrogen stress were calibrated over global croplands from one grid cell to another (1.125° in latitude and longitude) using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The historical yield data collected from major crop-producing countries on a state, county, or prefecture scale were used as the calibration data. Then we obtained the model parameter sets that can give high correlation coefficients between the historical and estimated yield time series for the period 1980-2006. We analyzed the impacts on soybean yields in the three top soybean-producing countries (the USA, China, and Brazil) associated with the changes in climate and CO2 during the period 1980-2006, using the model. We found that, given the simulated yields and reported harvested areas, the estimated average net benefit from the CO2 fertilization effect (with one standard deviation) in the USA, Brazil, and China in the years was 42.70×32.52 Mt, 35.30×28.55 Mt, and 12.52×15.11 Mt, respectively. Results suggest that the CO2-induced increases in soybean yields in the USA and China likely offset a part of the negative impacts on yields due to the historical temperature rise. In contrast, the net effect of the past change in climate and CO2 in Brazil appeared to be positive. This study demonstrates a quantitative estimation of the impacts of the changes in climate and CO2 during the past few decades using a new global crop model.

Impacts of multiple global environmental changes on African crop yield and water use efficiency: Implications to food and water security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Yang, J.; Zhang, J.; Xu, R.; Dangal, S. R. S.; Zhang, B.; Tian, H.

2016-12-01

Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change and climate variability. Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate and other environmental factors on water resource and food security through the climate-water-food nexus. Understanding the responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to environmental changes is particularly important because Africa is well known for widespread poverty, slow economic growth and agricultural systems particularly sensitive to frequent and persistent droughts. However, the lack of integrated understanding has limited our ability to quantify and predict the potential of Africa's agricultural sustainability and freshwater supply, and to better manage the system for meeting an increasing food demand in a way that is socially and environmentally or ecologically sustainable. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed the spatial and temporal patterns of crop yield, evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency across entire Africa in the past 35 years (1980-2015) and the rest of the 21st century (2016-2099). Our preliminary results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion (about 50%), elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Climate extremes especially droughts and heat wave have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions. Our results indicate that N fertilizer could be a major driver to improve food security in Africa. Future climate warming could reduce crop yield and shift cropland distribution. Our study further suggests that improving water use efficiency through land management practices including the increased uses of fertilizers and irrigation will be the key for reducing the loss of crop yield in a warming climate and extreme weather.

Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madadgar, Shahrbanou; AghaKouchak, Amir; Farahmand, Alireza; Davis, Steven J.

2017-08-01

Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980-2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001-2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25-45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops.

Midwest Agriculture: A comparison of AVHRR NDVI3g data and crop yields in Corn Belt region of the United States from 1982 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glennie, E.; Anyamba, A.; Eastman, R.

2016-12-01

A time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images was compared to National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) corn yield data in the Corn Belt of the United States from 1982 to 2014. The relationship between NDVI and crop yields under El Nino, neutral, and La Nina conditions was used to assess 1) the reliability of using NDVI as an indicator of crop productivity, and 2) the response of the Corn Belt to El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection effects. First, bi-monthly NDVI data were combined into monthly data using the maximum value compositing technique to reduce cloud contamination and other effects. The most representative seasonal curve of NDVI values over the course of the study period was extracted to define the growing season in the region - May to October. Standardized NDVI anomalies were calculated and averaged to produce a growing season NDVI metrics to represent each Agricultural Statistics Division (ASD) for each year in the study period. The corn yields were detrended in order to remove effects of technological advancements on crop productivity (use of genetically modified seeds, fertilizer, herbicides). Correlation (R) values between the NDVI anomalies and detrended corn yields varied across the Corn Belt, with a maximum of 0.81 and mean of 0.49. While corn is the dominant crop in the region, some inconsistencies between corn yield and NDVI may be accounted for by an increase in soy yield for a given year due to crop rotation practices. The 10 El Nino events and 9 La Nina events that occurred between 1982 and 2014 are not reflected in a consistent manner in NDVI or corn yield data. However, composites of NDVI and crop yields for all El Nino events indicate there is a tendency for higher than normal NDVI and increased corn yields. Conversely, the composite crop yield image for La Nina events shows a slight decrease in productivity.

Planetary opportunities in crop water management: Potential to outweigh cropland expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jägermeyr, Jonas; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, Wolfgang; Heinke, Jens

2014-05-01

Global available land and water resources probably cannot feed projected future human populations under current productivity levels. Moreover, the planetary boundaries of both land use change and water consumption are being approached rapidly, and at the same time competition between food production, bioenergy plantations and biodiversity conservation is increasing. Global cropland is expected to expand to meet future demands, while considerable yield gaps remain in many world regions. Yield increases in Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, are currently mainly based on expansion of arable land into currently non-agricultural areas - while small-scale irrigation and water conservancy methods are considered very promising to boost yields there. In the here presented modeling study we investigate, at global scale, to what degree different on-farm options to better manage green and blue water might contribute to a global crop yield increase under conditions of current climate and projected future climate change. We consider methods aiming for a maximization of crops' water use efficiency and an optimal use of available on-farm water (precipitation): reducing unproductive soil evaporation (vapor shift, VS), collecting surface runoff after rain events to mitigate subsequent dry-spells (rain-water harvesting, RWH), increasing irrigation efficiency, and expanding irrigated area into rain-fed cropland (based on water savings from higher efficiencies). Global yield simulations based on hypothetical scenarios of these management opportunities are performed with the LPJmL ecohydrological modeling framework driven by reanalysis data and GCM ensemble simulations. We consider a range of about 20 climate change projections to cover respective uncertainties, and we analyze the effects of increasing CO2 concentration on the crops and their water demand. Crops are represented in a process-based and dynamic way by 12 crop functional types, each for rain-fed and irrigated areas, with prescribed annual fractions of cropland per 0.5° x 0.5° grid cell. We recalculate from the yield increase how much cropland expansion can be avoided in 30-yr averages. Our results show that the studied affordable low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands can have a considerable effect on yields at the global scale. A simulated global ~15% yield increase from a low-intensity water management scenario (25% of runoff used for RWH, 25% of soil evaporation avoided to achieve VS, slight irrigation efficiency improvement) could outweigh, i.e. possibly avoid, an estimated 120 Mha of cropland expansion under current climatic conditions. A (rather theoretical) maximum-intensity water management scenario (85% VS, 85% RWH, surface irrigation replaced by sprinkler systems) shows the potential to increase global yields by more than 35% without expansion or withdrawing additional irrigation water. Climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but as we sow such adaptation opportunities have the potential to mitigate or compensate these impacts in many countries. Overall, proper water management (sustainably maximizing on-farm water use efficiency) can substantially increase global crop yields and at the same time relax rates of land cover conversion.

More Yield with Less Water: Increasing Water Use Efficiency by Capitalizing on the Adaptation of Native Shrubs in the Sudano-Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogie, Nathaniel; Bayala, Roger; Diedhiou, Ibrahima; Dick, Richard; Ghezzehei, Teamrat

2016-04-01

A changing climate along with human and animal population pressure can have a devastating effect on crop yields and food security in the Sudano-Sahel. Agricultural solutions to address soil degradation and crop water stress are needed to combat this increasingly difficult situation. Significant differences in crop success have been observed in peanut and millet grown in association with two native evergreen shrubs Piliostigma reticulatum, and Guiera senegalensis at the sites of Nioro du Rip and Keur Matar, respectively. We investigate how farmers can increase crop productivity by capitalizing on the evolutionary adaptation of native shrubs to the harsh Sudano-Sahelian environment as well as the physical mechanisms at work in the system that can lead to more robust yields. Research plots at Keur Matar Arame with no fertilizer added were monitored in 2013 using two soil moisture sensor networks at depths of 10, 20, 40, 60, 100, 200, and 300cm. Cropping season water use total calculated based on beginning and end of season soil moisture and seasonal precipitation data revealed that crop-only plot used 411±32 mm of water, and the crop and shrub plot used 439±42 mm of water. Taking into account the quantity of crop biomass produced and neglecting the shrub biomass produced, the crop and shrub plot had a water use efficiency of 1.60 kg ha-1 mm-1 and the crop only plot had 0.269 kg ha-1 mm-1. Water status was measured three times throughout the season on millet leaves and revealed no significant trends. Handheld NDVI readings revealed significantly higher NDVI values in crop and shrub plots at all measurement dates. These findings build on work that was completed in 2004 at the site, but further increases in crop yields have been shown. Increasing water use efficiency by over 500% can be a great advantage in years of limited water availability such as 2013. Using even the limited resources that farmers possess, this agroforestry technique can be expanded over wide swaths of the Sahel.

Drought effects on US maize and soybean production: spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zipper, Samuel C.; Qiu, Jiangxiao; Kucharik, Christopher J.

2016-09-01

Maximizing agricultural production on existing cropland is one pillar of meeting future global food security needs. To close crop yield gaps, it is critical to understand how climate extremes such as drought impact yield. Here, we use gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yield data to quantify meteorological drought sensitivity of US maize and soybean production from 1958 to 2007. Meteorological drought negatively affects crop yield over most US crop-producing areas, and yield is most sensitive to short-term (1-3 month) droughts during critical development periods from July to August. While meteorological drought is associated with 13% of overall yield variability, substantial spatial variability in drought effects and sensitivity exists, with central and southeastern US becoming increasingly sensitive to drought over time. Our study illustrates fine-scale spatiotemporal patterns of drought effects, highlighting where variability in crop production is most strongly associated with drought, and suggests that management strategies that buffer against short-term water stress may be most effective at sustaining long-term crop productivity.

Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2017-05-03

The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40%more » by 2050s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. As a result, this has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.« less

Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40%more » by 2050s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. As a result, this has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.« less

Improvement of photosynthesis in rice (Oryza sativa L.) by inserting the C4 pathway.

PubMed

Karki, Shanta; Rizal, Govinda; Quick, William Paul

2013-10-28

To boost food production for a rapidly growing global population, crop yields must significantly increase. One of the avenues being recently explored is the improvement of photosynthetic capacity by installing the C4 photosynthetic pathway into C3 crops like rice to drastically increase their yield. Crops with an enhanced photosynthetic mechanism would better utilize the solar radiation that can be translated into yield. This subsequently will help in producing more grain yield, reduce water loss and increase nitrogen use efficiency especially in hot and dry environments. This review provides a summary of the factors that need to be modified in rice so that the C4 pathway can be introduced successfully. It also discusses the differences between the C3 and C4 photosynthetic pathways in terms of anatomy, biochemistry and genetics.

Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

2013-10-01

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have significant policy implications by affecting food prices and supplies.

Disease risks associated with cover crops in corn and soybean production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cover crops have numerous environmental and soil health benefits and are being more widely used by farmers in Iowa. Still some farmers are reluctant to use cover crops because of increased risks to crop yields in part because of increased disease potential. The goal of our research is to understand ...

Organic weed conrol and cover crop residue integration impacts on weed control, quality, and yield and economics in conservation tillage tomato - A case study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The increased use of conservation tillage in vegetable production requires more information be developed on the role of cover crops in weed control, tomato quality and yield. Three conservation-tillage systems utilizing crimson clover, brassica and cereal rye as winter cover crops were compared to ...

A diversified no-till crop rotation reduces nitrous oxide emissions, increases soybean yields, and promotes soil C accrual

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We evaluated the impact of crop rotational diversity on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, global warming potential (GWP), and crop yields. Under no-till, rain-fed conditions, a two-yr (corn (Zea mays L.)-soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.)) rotation and a four-yr (corn-field peas (Pisum sativum L.)-winte...

Yield responses of wild C3 and C4 crop progenitors to subambient CO2 : a test for the role of CO2 limitation in the origin of agriculture.

PubMed

Cunniff, Jennifer; Jones, Glynis; Charles, Michael; Osborne, Colin P

2017-01-01

Limitation of plant productivity by the low partial pressure of atmospheric CO 2 (C a ) experienced during the last glacial period is hypothesized to have been an important constraint on the origins of agriculture. In support of this hypothesis, previous work has shown that glacial C a limits vegetative growth in the wild progenitors of both C 3 and C 4 founder crops. Here, we present data showing that glacial C a also reduces grain yield in both crop types. We grew four wild progenitors of C 3 (einkorn wheat and barley) and C 4 crops (foxtail and broomcorn millets) at glacial and postglacial C a , measuring grain yield and the morphological and physiological components contributing to these yield changes. The C 3 species showed a significant increase in unthreshed grain yield of ~50% with the glacial to postglacial increase in C a , which matched the stimulation of photosynthesis, suggesting that increases in photosynthesis are directly translated into yield at subambient levels of C a . Increased yield was controlled by a higher rate of tillering, leading to a larger number of tillers bearing fertile spikes, and increases in seed number and size. The C 4 species showed smaller, but significant, increases in grain yield of 10-15%, arising from larger seed numbers and sizes. Photosynthesis was enhanced by C a in only one C 4 species and the effect diminished during development, suggesting that an indirect mechanism mediated by plant water relations could also be playing a role in the yield increase. Interestingly, the C 4 species at glacial C a showed some evidence that photosynthetic capacity was upregulated to enhance carbon capture. Development under glacial C a also impacted negatively on the subsequent germination and viability of seeds. These results suggest that the grain production of both C 3 and C 4 crop progenitors was limited by the atmospheric conditions of the last glacial period, with important implications for the origins of agriculture. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulated Near-term Climate Change Impacts on Major Crops across Latin America and the Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourdji, S.; Mesa-Diez, J.; Obando-Bonilla, D.; Navarro-Racines, C.; Moreno, P.; Fisher, M.; Prager, S.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.

2016-12-01

Robust estimates of climate change impacts on agricultural production can help to direct investments in adaptation in the coming decades. In this study commissioned by the Inter-American Development Bank, near-term climate change impacts (2020-2049) are simulated relative to a historical baseline period (1971-2000) for five major crops (maize, rice, wheat, soybean and dry bean) across Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) using the DSSAT crop model. No adaptation or technological change is assumed, thereby providing an analysis of existing climatic stresses on yields in the region and a worst-case scenario in the coming decades. DSSAT is run across irrigated and rain-fed growing areas in the region at a 0.5° spatial resolution for each crop. Crop model inputs for soils, planting dates, crop varieties and fertilizer applications are taken from previously-published datasets, and also optimized for this study. Results show that maize and dry bean are the crops most affected by climate change, followed by wheat, with only minimal changes for rice and soybean. Generally, rain-fed production sees more severe yield declines than irrigated production, although large increases in irrigation water are needed to maintain yields, reducing the yield-irrigation productivity in most areas and potentially exacerbating existing supply limitations in watersheds. This is especially true for rice and soybean, the two crops showing the most neutral yield changes. Rain-fed yields for maize and bean are projected to decline most severely in the sub-tropical Caribbean, Central America and northern South America, where climate models show a consistent drying trend. Crop failures are also projected to increase in these areas, necessitating switches to other crops or investment in adaptation measures. Generally, investment in agricultural adaptation to climate change (such as improved seed and irrigation infrastructure) will be needed throughout the LAC region in the 21st century.

An analysis of yield stability in a conservation agriculture system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate models predict increasing growing-season weather variability, with negative consequences for crop production. Maintaining agricultural productivity despite variability in weather (i.e., crop yield stability) will be critical to meeting growing global demand. Conservation agriculture is an ...

Morphological plasticity of root growth under mild water stress increases water use efficiency without reducing yield in maize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Qian; Zhang, Yulong; Sun, Zhanxiang; Zheng, Jiaming; Bai, Wei; Zhang, Yue; Liu, Yang; Feng, Liangshan; Feng, Chen; Zhang, Zhe; Yang, Ning; Evers, Jochem B.; Zhang, Lizhen

2017-08-01

A large yield gap exists in rain-fed maize (Zea mays L.) production in semi-arid regions, mainly caused by frequent droughts halfway through the crop-growing period due to uneven distribution of rainfall. It is questionable whether irrigation systems are economically required in such a region since the total amount of rainfall does generally meet crop requirements. This study aimed to quantitatively determine the effects of water stress from jointing to grain filling on root and shoot growth and the consequences for maize grain yield, above- and below-ground dry matter, water uptake (WU) and water use efficiency (WUE). Pot experiments were conducted in 2014 and 2015 with a mobile rain shelter to achieve conditions of no, mild or severe water stress. Maize yield was not affected by mild water stress over 2 years, while severe stress reduced yield by 56 %. Both water stress levels decreased root biomass slightly but shoot biomass substantially. Mild water stress decreased root length but increased root diameter, resulting in no effect on root surface area. Due to the morphological plasticity in root growth and the increase in root / shoot ratio, WU under water stress was decreased, and overall WUE for both above-ground dry matter and grain yield increased. Our results demonstrate that an irrigation system might be not economically and ecologically necessary because the frequently occurring mild water stress did not reduce crop yield much. The study helps us to understand crop responses to water stress during a critical water-sensitive period (middle of the crop-growing season) and to mitigate drought risk in dry-land agriculture.

Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Bussel, Lenny G. J.; Ewert, Frank; Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Enders, Andreas; Wallach, Daniel; Asseng, Senthold; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian;

Breeding and Domesticating Crops Adapted to Drought and Salinity: A New Paradigm for Increasing Food Production

PubMed Central

Fita, Ana; Rodríguez-Burruezo, Adrián; Boscaiu, Monica; Prohens, Jaime; Vicente, Oscar

2015-01-01

World population is expected to reach 9.2 × 109 people by 2050. Feeding them will require a boost in crop productivity using innovative approaches. Current agricultural production is very dependent on large amounts of inputs and water availability is a major limiting factor. In addition, the loss of genetic diversity and the threat of climate change make a change of paradigm in plant breeding and agricultural practices necessary. Average yields in all major crops are only a small fraction of record yields, and drought and soil salinity are the main factors responsible for yield reduction. Therefore there is the need to enhance crop productivity by improving crop adaptation. Here we review the present situation and propose the development of crops tolerant to drought and salt stress for addressing the challenge of dramatically increasing food production in the near future. The success in the development of crops adapted to drought and salt depends on the efficient and combined use of genetic engineering and traditional breeding tools. Moreover, we propose the domestication of new halophilic crops to create a ‘saline agriculture’ which will not compete in terms of resources with conventional agriculture. PMID:26617620

Energizing marginal soils: A perennial cropping system for Sida hermaphrodita

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabel, Moritz; Poorter, Hendrik; Temperton, Vicky; Schrey, Silvia D.; Koller, Robert; Schurr, Ulrich; Jablonowski, Nicolai D.

2017-04-01

As a way to avoid land use conflicts, the use of marginal soils for the production of plant biomass can be a sustainable alternative to conventional biomass production (e.g. maize). However, new cropping strategies have to be found that meet the challenge of crop production under marginal soil conditions. We aim for increased soil fertility by the use of the perennial crop Sida hermaphrodita in combination with organic fertilization and legume intercropping to produce substantial biomass yield. We present results of a three-year outdoor mesocosm experiment testing the perennial energy crop Sida hermaphrodita grown on a marginal model substrate (sand) with four kinds of fertilization (Digestate broadcast, Digestate Depot, mineral NPK and unfertilized control) in combination with legume intercropping. After three years, organic fertilization (via biogas digestate) compared to mineral fertilization (NPK), reduced the nitrate concentration in leachate and increased the soil carbon content. Biomass yields of Sida were 25% higher when fertilized organically, compared to mineral fertilizer. In general, digestate broadcast application reduced root growth and the wettability of the sandy substrate. However, when digestate was applied locally as depot to the rhizosphere, root growth increased and the wettability of the sandy substrate was preserved. Depot fertilization increased biomass yield by 10% compared to digestate broadcast fertilization. We intercropped Sida with various legumes (Trifolium repens, Trifolium pratense, Melilotus spp. and Medicago sativa) to enable biological nitrogen fixation and make the cropping system independent from synthetically produced fertilizers. We could show that Medicago sativa grown on marginal substrate fixed large amounts of N, especially when fertilized organically, whereas mineral fertilization suppressed biological nitrogen fixation. We conclude that the perennial energy crop Sida in combination with organic fertilization has great potential to increase the soil fertility of marginal substrates and produce substantial biomass yields.

Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions: trade-offs or synergies between mitigation and food security?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valin, H.; Havlík, P.; Mosnier, A.; Herrero, M.; Schmid, E.; Obersteiner, M.

2013-09-01

In this letter, we investigate the effects of crop yield and livestock feed efficiency scenarios on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and land use change in developing countries. We analyze mitigation associated with different productivity pathways using the global partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM. Our results confirm that yield increase could mitigate some agriculture-related emissions growth over the next decades. Closing yield gaps by 50% for crops and 25% for livestock by 2050 would decrease agriculture and land use change emissions by 8% overall, and by 12% per calorie produced. However, the outcome is sensitive to the technological path and which factor benefits from productivity gains: sustainable land intensification would increase GHG savings by one-third when compared with a fertilizer intensive pathway. Reaching higher yield through total factor productivity gains would be more efficient on the food supply side but halve emissions savings due to a strong rebound effect on the demand side. Improvement in the crop or livestock sector would have different implications: crop yield increase would bring the largest food provision benefits, whereas livestock productivity gains would allow the greatest reductions in GHG emission. Combining productivity increases in the two sectors appears to be the most efficient way to exploit mitigation and food security co-benefits.

Towards a globally optimized crop distribution: Integrating water use, nutrition, and economic value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, K. F.; Seveso, A.; Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.

2016-12-01

Human demand for crop production is expected to increase substantially in the coming decades as a result of population growth, richer diets and biofuel use. In order for food production to keep pace, unprecedented amounts of resources - water, fertilizers, energy - will be required. This has led to calls for `sustainable intensification' in which yields are increased on existing croplands while seeking to minimize impacts on water and other agricultural resources. Recent studies have quantified aspects of this, showing that there is a large potential to improve crop yields and increase harvest frequencies to better meet human demand. Though promising, both solutions would necessitate large additional inputs of water and fertilizer in order to be achieved under current technologies. However, the question of whether the current distribution of crops is, in fact, the best for realizing sustainable production has not been considered to date. To this end, we ask: Is it possible to increase crop production and economic value while minimizing water demand by simply growing crops where soil and climate conditions are best suited? Here we use maps of yields and evapotranspiration for 14 major food crops to identify differences between current crop distributions and where they can most suitably be planted. By redistributing crops across currently cultivated lands, we determine the potential improvements in calorie (+12%) and protein (+51%) production, economic output (+41%) and water demand (-5%). This approach can also incorporate the impact of future climate on cropland suitability, and as such, be used to provide optimized cropping patterns under climate change. Thus, our study provides a novel tool towards achieving sustainable intensification that can be used to recommend optimal crop distributions in the face of a changing climate while simultaneously accounting for food security, freshwater resources, and livelihoods.

An evaluation of the physiochemical and biological characteristics of foaming swine manure

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Incorporation of dedicated herbaceous energy crops into row crop landscapes is a promising means to supply an expanding biofuel industry while increasing biomass yields, benefiting soil and water quality, and increasing biodiversity. Despite these positive traits, energy crops remain largely unaccep...

[Comparison of potential yield and resource utilization efficiency of main food crops in three provinces of Northeast China under climate change].

PubMed

Wang, Xiao-yu; Yang, Xiao-guang; Sun, Shuang; Xie, Wen-juan

2015-10-01

Based on the daily data of 65 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 and the crop phenology data in the potential cultivation zones of thermophilic and chimonophilous crops in Northeast China, the crop potential yields were calculated through step-by-step correction method. The spatio-temporal distribution of the crop potential yields at different levels was analyzed. And then we quantified the limitations of temperature and precipitation on the crop potential yields and compared the differences in the climatic resource utilization efficiency. The results showed that the thermal potential yields of six crops (including maize, rice, spring wheat, sorghum, millet and soybean) during the period 1961-2010 deceased from west to east. The climatic potential yields of the five crops (spring wheat not included) were higher in the south than in the north. The potential yield loss rate due to temperature limitations of the six crops presented a spatial distribution pattern and was higher in the east than in the west. Among the six main crops, the yield potential loss rate due to temperature limitation of the soybean was the highest (51%), and those of the other crops fluctuated within the range of 33%-41%. The potential yield loss rate due to water limitation had an obvious regional difference, and was high in Songnen Plain and Changbai Mountains. The potential yield loss rate of spring wheat was the highest (50%), and those of the other four rainfed crops fluctuated within the range of 8%-10%. The solar energy utilization efficiency of the six main crops ranged from 0.9% to 2.7%, in the order of maize> sorghum>rice>millet>spring wheat>soybean. The precipitation utilization efficiency of the maize, sorghum, spring wheat, millet and soybean under rainfed conditions ranged from 8 to 35 kg . hm-2 . mm-1, in the order of maize>sorghum>spring wheat>millet>soybean. In those areas with lower efficiency of solar energy utilization and precipitation utilization, such as Changbai Mountains and the south of Lesser Khingan Mountains, measures could be taken to increase the efficiency of resource utilization such as rational close-planting, selection of droughtresistant varieties, proper and timely fertilization, farming for soil water storage, optimization of crop layout and so on.

Benefits of supplementing an industrial waste anaerobic digester with energy crops for increased biogas production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nges, Ivo Achu, E-mail: Nges.Ivo_Achu@biotek.lu.se; Escobar, Federico; Fu Xinmei

2012-01-15

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This study demonstrates the feasibility of co-digestion food industrial waste with energy crops. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Laboratory batch co-digestion led to improved methane yield and carbon to nitrogen ratio as compared to mono-digestion of industrial waste. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Co-digestion was also seen as a means of degrading energy crops with nutrients addition as crops are poor in nutrients. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Batch co-digestion methane yields were used to predict co-digestion methane yield in full scale operation. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It was concluded that co-digestion led an over all economically viable process and ensured a constant supply of feedstock. - Abstract: Currently, there is increasing competitionmore » for waste as feedstock for the growing number of biogas plants. This has led to fluctuation in feedstock supply and biogas plants being operated below maximum capacity. The feasibility of supplementing a protein/lipid-rich industrial waste (pig manure, slaughterhouse waste, food processing and poultry waste) mesophilic anaerobic digester with carbohydrate-rich energy crops (hemp, maize and triticale) was therefore studied in laboratory scale batch and continuous stirred tank reactors (CSTR) with a view to scale-up to a commercial biogas process. Co-digesting industrial waste and crops led to significant improvement in methane yield per ton of feedstock and carbon-to-nitrogen ratio as compared to digestion of the industrial waste alone. Biogas production from crops in combination with industrial waste also avoids the need for micronutrients normally required in crop digestion. The batch co-digestion methane yields were used to predict co-digestion methane yield in full scale operation. This was done based on the ratio of methane yields observed for laboratory batch and CSTR experiments compared to full scale CSTR digestion of industrial waste. The economy of crop-based biogas production is limited under Swedish conditions; therefore, adding crops to existing industrial waste digestion could be a viable alternative to ensure a constant/reliable supply of feedstock to the anaerobic digester.« less

Temporal variability of green and blue water footprint worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamea, Stefania; Lomurno, Marianna; Tuninetti, Marta; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-04-01

Water footprint assessment is becoming widely used in the scientific literature and it is proving useful in a number of multidisciplinary contexts. Given this increasing popularity, measures of green and blue water footprint (or virtual water content, VWC) require evaluations of uncertainty and variability to quantify the reliability of proposed analyses. As of today, no studies are known to assess the temporal variability of crop VWC at the global scale; the present contribution aims at filling this gap. We use a global high-resolution distributed model to compute the VWC of staple crops (wheat and maize), basing on the soil water balance, forced by hydroclimatic imputs, and on the total crop evapotranspiration in multiple growing seasons. Crop actual yield is estimated using country-based yield data, adjusted to account for spatial variability, allowing for the analysis of the different role played by climatic and management factors in the definition of crop yield. The model is then run using hydroclimatic data, i.e., precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, for the period 1961-2013 as taken from the CRU database (CRU TS v. 3.23) and using the corresponding country-based yield data from FAOSTAT. Results provide the time series of total evapotranspiration, actual yield and VWC, with separation between green and blue VWC, and the overall volume of water used for crop production, both at the cell scale (5x5 arc-min) and aggregated at the country scale. Preliminary results indicate that total (green+blue) VWC is, in general, weekly dependent on hydroclimatic forcings if water for irrigation is unlimited, because irrigated agriculture allows to compensate temporary water shortage. Conversely, most part of the VWC variability is found to be determined by the temporal evolution of crop yield. At the country scale, the total water used by countries for agricultural production has seen a limited change in time, but the marked increase in the water-use efficiency expressed by VWC has determined an increase of production. Such increase has helped to meet the increasing global food demand in the past 50 years.

Land Use, Yield and Quality Changes of Minor Field Crops: Is There Superseded Potential to Be Reinvented in Northern Europe?

PubMed

Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo; Jauhiainen, Lauri; Lehtonen, Heikki

2016-01-01

Diversification of agriculture was one of the strengthened aims of the greening payment of European Agricultural Policy (CAP) as diversification provides numerous ecosystems services compared to cereal-intensive crop rotations. This study focuses on current minor crops in Finland that have potential for expanded production and considers changes in their cropping areas, yield trends, breeding gains, roles in crop rotations and potential for improving resilience. Long-term datasets of Natural Resources Institute Finland and farmers' land use data from the Agency of Rural Affairs were used to analyze the above-mentioned trends and changes. The role of minor crops in rotations declined when early and late CAP periods were compared and that of cereal monocultures strengthened. Genetic yield potentials of minor crops have increased as also genetic improvements in quality traits, although some typical trade-offs with improved yields have also appeared. However, the gap between potential and attained yields has expanded, depending on the minor crop, as national yield trends have either stagnated or declined. When comparing genetic improvements of minor crops to those of the emerging major crop, spring wheat, breeding achievements in minor crops were lower. It was evident that the current agricultural policies in the prevailing market and the price environment have not encouraged cultivation of minor crops but further strengthened the role of cereal monocultures. We suggest optimization of agricultural land use, which is a core element of sustainable intensification, as a future means to couple long-term environmental sustainability with better success in economic profitability and social acceptability. This calls for development of effective policy instruments to support farmer's diversification actions.

Land Use, Yield and Quality Changes of Minor Field Crops: Is There Superseded Potential to Be Reinvented in Northern Europe?

PubMed Central

Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo; Jauhiainen, Lauri; Lehtonen, Heikki

2016-01-01

Diversification of agriculture was one of the strengthened aims of the greening payment of European Agricultural Policy (CAP) as diversification provides numerous ecosystems services compared to cereal-intensive crop rotations. This study focuses on current minor crops in Finland that have potential for expanded production and considers changes in their cropping areas, yield trends, breeding gains, roles in crop rotations and potential for improving resilience. Long-term datasets of Natural Resources Institute Finland and farmers’ land use data from the Agency of Rural Affairs were used to analyze the above-mentioned trends and changes. The role of minor crops in rotations declined when early and late CAP periods were compared and that of cereal monocultures strengthened. Genetic yield potentials of minor crops have increased as also genetic improvements in quality traits, although some typical trade-offs with improved yields have also appeared. However, the gap between potential and attained yields has expanded, depending on the minor crop, as national yield trends have either stagnated or declined. When comparing genetic improvements of minor crops to those of the emerging major crop, spring wheat, breeding achievements in minor crops were lower. It was evident that the current agricultural policies in the prevailing market and the price environment have not encouraged cultivation of minor crops but further strengthened the role of cereal monocultures. We suggest optimization of agricultural land use, which is a core element of sustainable intensification, as a future means to couple long-term environmental sustainability with better success in economic profitability and social acceptability. This calls for development of effective policy instruments to support farmer’s diversification actions. PMID:27870865

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sultan, B.; Guan, K.; Kouressy, M.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.; Lobell, D. B.

2014-10-01

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031-2060 compared to a baseline of 1961-1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16-20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate impacts on sorghum yields by about 10%, with drier regions experiencing the largest benefits, though the net impacts of climate change remain negative even after accounting for CO2.

Targeting carbon for crop yield and drought resilience

PubMed Central

Griffiths, Cara A

2017-01-01

Abstract Current methods of crop improvement are not keeping pace with projected increases in population growth. Breeding, focused around key traits of stem height and disease resistance, delivered the step‐change yield improvements of the green revolution of the 1960s. However, subsequently, yield increases through conventional breeding have been below the projected requirement of 2.4% per year required by 2050. Genetic modification (GM) mainly for herbicide tolerance and insect resistance has been transformational, akin to a second green revolution, although GM has yet to make major inroads into intrinsic yield processes themselves. Drought imposes the major restriction on crop yields globally but, as yet, has not benefited substantially from genetic improvement and still presents a major challenge to agriculture. Much still has to be learnt about the complex process of how drought limits yield and what should be targeted. Mechanisms of drought adaptation from the natural environment cannot be taken into crops without significant modification for the agricultural environment because mechanisms of drought tolerance are often in contrast with mechanisms of high productivity required in agriculture. However, through convergence of fundamental and translational science, it would appear that a mechanism of sucrose allocation in crops can be modified for both productivity and resilience to drought and other stresses. Recent publications show how this mechanism can be targeted by GM, natural variation and a new chemical approach. Here, with an emphasis on drought, we highlight how understanding fundamental science about how crops grow, develop and what limits their growth and yield can be combined with targeted genetic selection and pioneering chemical intervention technology for transformational yield improvements. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. PMID:28653336

Straw incorporation increases crop yield and soil organic carbon sequestration but varies under different natural conditions and farming practices in China: a system analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xiao; Xu, Cong; Dungait, Jennifer A. J.; Bol, Roland; Wang, Xiaojie; Wu, Wenliang; Meng, Fanqiao

2018-04-01

Loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) from agricultural soils is a key indicator of soil degradation associated with reductions in net primary productivity in crop production systems worldwide. Technically simple and locally appropriate solutions are required for farmers to increase SOC and to improve cropland management. In the last 30 years, straw incorporation (SI) has gradually been implemented across China in the context of agricultural intensification and rural livelihood improvement. A meta-analysis of data published before the end of 2016 was undertaken to investigate the effects of SI on crop production and SOC sequestration. The results of 68 experimental studies throughout China in different edaphic conditions, climate regions and farming regimes were analyzed. Compared with straw removal (SR), SI significantly sequestered SOC (0-20 cm depth) at the rate of 0.35 (95 % CI, 0.31-0.40) Mg C ha-1 yr-1, increased crop grain yield by 13.4 % (9.3-18.4 %) and had a conversion efficiency of the incorporated straw C of 16 % ± 2 % across China. The combined SI at the rate of 3 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 with mineral fertilizer of 200-400 kg N ha-1 yr-1 was demonstrated to be the best farming practice, where crop yield increased by 32.7 % (17.9-56.4 %) and SOC sequestrated by the rate of 0.85 (0.54-1.15) Mg C ha-1 yr-1. SI achieved a higher SOC sequestration rate and crop yield increment when applied to clay soils under high cropping intensities, and in areas such as northeast China where the soil is being degraded. The SOC responses were highest in the initial starting phase of SI, then subsequently declined and finally became negligible after 28-62 years. However, crop yield responses were initially low and then increased, reaching their highest level at 11-15 years after SI. Overall, our study confirmed that SI created a positive feedback loop of SOC enhancement together with increased crop production, and this is of great practical importance to straw management as agriculture intensifies both in China and other regions with different climate conditions.

The Use of Cover Crops as Climate-Smart Management in Midwest Cropping Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basche, A.; Miguez, F.; Archontoulis, S.; Kaspar, T.

2014-12-01

The observed trends in the Midwestern United States of increasing rainfall variability will likely continue into the future. Events such as individual days of heavy rain as well as seasons of floods and droughts have large impacts on agricultural productivity and the natural resource base that underpins it. Such events lead to increased soil erosion, decreased water quality and reduced corn and soybean yields. Winter cover crops offer the potential to buffer many of these impacts because they essentially double the time for a living plant to protect and improve the soil. However, at present, cover crops are infrequently utilized in the Midwest (representing 1-2% of row cropped land cover) in particular due to producer concerns over higher costs and management, limited time and winter growing conditions as well as the potential harm to corn yields. In order to expand their use, there is a need to quantify how cover crops impact Midwest cropping systems in the long term and namely to understand how to optimize the benefits of cover crops while minimizing their impacts on cash crops. We are working with APSIM, a cropping systems platform, to specifically quantify the long term future impacts of cover crop incorporation in corn-based cropping systems. In general, our regional analysis showed only minor changes to corn and soybean yields (<1% differences) when a cover crop was or was not included in the simulation. Further, a "bad spring" scenario (where every third year had an abnormally wet/cold spring and cover crop termination and planting cash crop were within one day) did not result in any major changes to cash crop yields. Through simulations we estimate an average increase of 4-9% organic matter improvement in the topsoil and an average decrease in soil erosion of 14-32% depending on cover crop planting date and growth. Our work is part of the Climate and Corn-based Cropping Systems Coordinated Agriculture Project (CSCAP), a collaboration of eleven Midwestern institutions established to evaluate how conservation practices, including cover crops, improve the resilience of Midwest agriculture to future change. Such collaborations can help better quantify long term impacts of conservation practices on the landscape that ultimately lead to more climate-smart management of such agricultural systems.

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

PubMed Central

Pugh, T.A.M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand. PMID:27646707

Climate Analogues Suggest Limited Potential for Intensification of Production on Current Croplands Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pugh, T. A. M.; Mueller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pugh, T. A. M.; Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Folberth, C.; Olin, S.; Schmid, E.; Arneth, A.

2016-09-01

Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.

Managing for Multifunctionality in Perennial Grain Crops

PubMed Central

Ryan, Matthew R; Crews, Timothy E; Culman, Steven W; DeHaan, Lee R; Hayes, Richard C; Jungers, Jacob M; Bakker, Matthew G

2018-01-01

Abstract Plant breeders are increasing yields and improving agronomic traits in several perennial grain crops, the first of which is now being incorporated into commercial food products. Integration strategies and management guidelines are needed to optimize production of these new crops, which differ substantially from both annual grain crops and perennial forages. To offset relatively low grain yields, perennial grain cropping systems should be multifunctional. Growing perennial grains for several years to regenerate soil health before rotating to annual crops and growing perennial grains on sloped land and ecologically sensitive areas to reduce soil erosion and nutrient losses are two strategies that can provide ecosystem services and support multifunctionality. Several perennial cereals can be used to produce both grain and forage, and these dual-purpose crops can be intercropped with legumes for additional benefits. Highly diverse perennial grain polycultures can further enhance ecosystem services, but increased management complexity might limit their adoption. PMID:29662249

Impacts of climate change on cropping patterns in a tropical, sub-humid watershed

PubMed Central

Zwart, Sander J.; Hein, Lars

2018-01-01

In recent decades, there have been substantial increases in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a result of higher yields, increased cropping intensity, expansion of irrigated cropping systems, and rainfed cropland expansion. Yet, to date much of the research focus of the impact of climate change on crop production in the coming decades has been on crop yield responses. In this study, we analyse the impact of climate change on the potential for increasing rainfed cropping intensity through sequential cropping and irrigation expansion in central Benin. Our approach combines hydrological modelling and scenario analysis involving two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), two water-use scenarios for the watershed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and environmental water requirements leading to sustained streamflow. Our analyses show that in Benin, warmer temperatures will severely limit crop production increases achieved through the expansion of sequential cropping. Depending on the climate change scenario, between 50% and 95% of cultivated areas that can currently support sequential cropping or will need to revert to single cropping. The results also show that the irrigation potential of the watershed will be at least halved by mid-century in all scenario combinations. Given the urgent need to increase crop production to meet the demands of a growing population in SSA, our study outlines challenges and the need for planned development that need to be overcome to improve food security in the coming decades. PMID:29513753

Cellulosic Biofuel Production with Winter Cover Crops: Yield and Nitrogen Implications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Interest in renewable energy sources derived from plant biomass is increasing. Growing cover crops after harvest of the primary crop has been proposed as a solution to producing cellulosic biomass on existing crop-producing land without reducing food-harvest potential. Growing cover crops is a recom...

Understanding the Impact of Extreme Temperature on Crop Production in Karnataka in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahato, S.; Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

2017-12-01

The impact of extreme temperature on crop yield is seldom explored in work around climate change impact on agriculture. Further, these studies are restricted mainly to crops such as wheat and maize. Since different agro-climatic zones bear different crops and cropping patterns, it is important to explore the nature of the impact of changes in climate variables in agricultural systems under differential conditions. The study explores the effects of temperature rise on the major crops paddy, jowar, ragi and tur in the state of Karnataka of southern India. The choice of the unit of study to understand impact of climate variability on crop yields is largely restricted to availability of data for the unit. While, previous studies have dealt with this issue by replacing yield with NDVI at finer resolution, the use of an index in place of yield data has its limitations and may not reflect the true estimates. For this study, the unit considered is taluk, i.e. sub-district level. The crop yield for taluk is obtained between the year the 1995 to 2011 by aggregating point yield data from crop cutting experiments for each year across the taluks. The long term temperature data shows significantly increasing trend that ranges between 0.6 to 0.75 C across Karnataka. Further, the analysis suggests a warming trend in seasonal average temperature for Kharif and Rabi seasons across districts. The study also found that many districts exhibit the tendency of occurrence of extreme temperature days, which is of particular concern in terms of crop yield, since exposure of crops to extreme temperature has negative consequences for crop production and productivity. Using growing degree days GDD, extreme degree days EDD and total season rainfall as predictor variables, the fixed effect model shows that EDD is a more influential parameter as compared to GDD and rainfall. Also it has a statistically significant negative effect in most cases. Further, quantile regression was used to evaluate the robustness of the estimates of EDD in relation to crop yield. This showed the estimates to be robust across quantiles for most of the crops studied. Thus indicating a strong negative influence of exposure to extreme temperature on crop yield in the region.

Ensemble yield simulations: Using heat-tolerant and later-maturing varieties to adapt to climate warming.

PubMed

Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia

2017-01-01

The use of modern crop varieties is a dominant method of obtaining high yields in crop production. Efforts to identify suitable varieties, with characteristics that would increase crop yield under future climate conditions, remain essential to developing sustainable agriculture and food security. This work aims to evaluate potential genotypic adaptations (i.e., using varieties with increased ability to produce desirable grain numbers under high temperatures and with enhanced thermal time requirements during the grain-filling period) to cope with the negative impacts of climate change on maize yield. The contributions of different options were investigated at six sites in the North China Plain using the APSIM model and the outputs of 8 GCMs under RCP4.5 scenarios. It was found that without considering adaptation options, mean maize yield would decrease by 7~18% during 2010-2039 relative to 1976-2005. A large decrease in grain number relative to stabilized grain weight decreased maize yield under future climate scenarios. Using heat-tolerant varieties, maize yield could increase on average by 6% to 10%. Using later maturing varieties, e.g., enhanced thermal time requirements during the grain-filling period, maize yield could increase by 7% to 10%. The optimal adaptation options were site specific.

Ensemble yield simulations: Using heat-tolerant and later-maturing varieties to adapt to climate warming

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yi

2017-01-01

The use of modern crop varieties is a dominant method of obtaining high yields in crop production. Efforts to identify suitable varieties, with characteristics that would increase crop yield under future climate conditions, remain essential to developing sustainable agriculture and food security. This work aims to evaluate potential genotypic adaptations (i.e., using varieties with increased ability to produce desirable grain numbers under high temperatures and with enhanced thermal time requirements during the grain-filling period) to cope with the negative impacts of climate change on maize yield. The contributions of different options were investigated at six sites in the North China Plain using the APSIM model and the outputs of 8 GCMs under RCP4.5 scenarios. It was found that without considering adaptation options, mean maize yield would decrease by 7~18% during 2010–2039 relative to 1976–2005. A large decrease in grain number relative to stabilized grain weight decreased maize yield under future climate scenarios. Using heat-tolerant varieties, maize yield could increase on average by 6% to 10%. Using later maturing varieties, e.g., enhanced thermal time requirements during the grain-filling period, maize yield could increase by 7% to 10%. The optimal adaptation options were site specific. PMID:28459880

Soil mulching significantly enhances yields and water and nitrogen use efficiencies of maize and wheat: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Qin, Wei; Hu, Chunsheng; Oenema, Oene

2015-01-01

Global crop yields are limited by water and nutrient availability. Soil mulching (with plastic or straw) reduces evaporation, modifies soil temperature and thereby affects crop yields. Reported effects of mulching are sometimes contradictory, likely due to differences in climatic conditions, soil characteristics, crop species, and also water and nitrogen (N) input levels. Here we report on a meta-analysis of the effects of mulching on wheat and maize, using 1310 yield observations from 74 studies conducted in 19 countries. Our results indicate that mulching significantly increased yields, WUE (yield per unit water) and NUE (yield per unit N) by up to 60%, compared with no-mulching. Effects were larger for maize than wheat, and larger for plastic mulching than straw mulching. Interestingly, plastic mulching performed better at relatively low temperature while straw mulching showed the opposite trend. Effects of mulching also tended to decrease with increasing water input. Mulching effects were not related to soil organic matter content. In conclusion, soil mulching can significantly increase maize and wheat yields, WUE and NUE, and thereby may contribute to closing the yield gap between attainable and actual yields, especially in dryland and low nutrient input agriculture. The management of soil mulching requires site-specific knowledge. PMID:26586114

Soil mulching significantly enhances yields and water and nitrogen use efficiencies of maize and wheat: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Qin, Wei; Hu, Chunsheng; Oenema, Oene

2015-11-20

Global crop yields are limited by water and nutrient availability. Soil mulching (with plastic or straw) reduces evaporation, modifies soil temperature and thereby affects crop yields. Reported effects of mulching are sometimes contradictory, likely due to differences in climatic conditions, soil characteristics, crop species, and also water and nitrogen (N) input levels. Here we report on a meta-analysis of the effects of mulching on wheat and maize, using 1310 yield observations from 74 studies conducted in 19 countries. Our results indicate that mulching significantly increased yields, WUE (yield per unit water) and NUE (yield per unit N) by up to 60%, compared with no-mulching. Effects were larger for maize than wheat, and larger for plastic mulching than straw mulching. Interestingly, plastic mulching performed better at relatively low temperature while straw mulching showed the opposite trend. Effects of mulching also tended to decrease with increasing water input. Mulching effects were not related to soil organic matter content. In conclusion, soil mulching can significantly increase maize and wheat yields, WUE and NUE, and thereby may contribute to closing the yield gap between attainable and actual yields, especially in dryland and low nutrient input agriculture. The management of soil mulching requires site-specific knowledge.

Soil mulching significantly enhances yields and water and nitrogen use efficiencies of maize and wheat: a meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Wei; Hu, Chunsheng; Oenema, Oene

2015-11-01

Global crop yields are limited by water and nutrient availability. Soil mulching (with plastic or straw) reduces evaporation, modifies soil temperature and thereby affects crop yields. Reported effects of mulching are sometimes contradictory, likely due to differences in climatic conditions, soil characteristics, crop species, and also water and nitrogen (N) input levels. Here we report on a meta-analysis of the effects of mulching on wheat and maize, using 1310 yield observations from 74 studies conducted in 19 countries. Our results indicate that mulching significantly increased yields, WUE (yield per unit water) and NUE (yield per unit N) by up to 60%, compared with no-mulching. Effects were larger for maize than wheat, and larger for plastic mulching than straw mulching. Interestingly, plastic mulching performed better at relatively low temperature while straw mulching showed the opposite trend. Effects of mulching also tended to decrease with increasing water input. Mulching effects were not related to soil organic matter content. In conclusion, soil mulching can significantly increase maize and wheat yields, WUE and NUE, and thereby may contribute to closing the yield gap between attainable and actual yields, especially in dryland and low nutrient input agriculture. The management of soil mulching requires site-specific knowledge.

Genome editing using CRISPR/Cas9-targeted mutagenesis: An opportunity for yield improvements of crop plants grown under environmental stresses.

PubMed

Abdelrahman, Mostafa; Al-Sadi, Abdullah M; Pour-Aboughadareh, Alireza; Burritt, David J; Tran, Lam-Son Phan

2018-03-12

Developing more crops able to sustainably produce high yields when grown under biotic/abiotic stresses is an important goal, if crop production and food security are to be guaranteed in the face of ever-increasing human population and unpredictable global climatic conditions. However, conventional crop improvement, through random mutagenesis or genetic recombination, is time-consuming and cannot keep pace with increasing food demands. Targeted genome editing (GE) technologies, especially clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/(CRISPR)-associated protein 9 (Cas9), have great potential to aid in the breeding of crops that are able to produce high yields under conditions of biotic/abiotic stress. This is due to their high efficiency, accuracy and low risk of off-target effects, compared with conventional random mutagenesis methods. The use of CRISPR/Cas9 system has grown very rapidly in recent years with numerous examples of targeted mutagenesis in crop plants, including gene knockouts, modifications, and the activation and repression of target genes. The potential of the GE approach for crop improvement has been clearly demonstrated. However, the regulation and social acceptance of GE crops still remain a challenge. In this review, we evaluate the recent applications of the CRISPR/Cas9-mediated GE, as a means to produce crop plants with greater resilience to the stressors they encounter when grown under increasing stressful environmental conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Connecting Groundwater, Crop Price, and Crop Production Variability in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollack, A.; Lobell, D. B.; Jain, M.

2015-12-01

Farmers in India rely on groundwater resources for irrigation and production of staple crops that provide over half of the calories consumed domestically each year. While this has been a productive strategy in increasing agricultural production and maintaining high yields, groundwater resources are depleting at a quicker rate than natural resources can replace. This issue gains relevance as climate variability concurrently adds to yearly fluctuations in farmer demand for irrigation each year, which can create high risk for farmers that depend on consistent yields, but do not have access to dwindling water resources. This study investigates variability in groundwater levels from 2005 to 2013 in relation to crop prices and production by analyzing district-level datasets made available through India's government. Through this analysis, we show the impact of groundwater variability on price variability, crop yield, and production during these years. By examining this nine-year timescale, we extend our analysis to forthcoming years to demonstrate the increasing importance of groundwater resources in irrigation, and suggest strategies to reduce the impact of groundwater shortages on crop production and prices.

Benefits of supplementing an industrial waste anaerobic digester with energy crops for increased biogas production.

PubMed

Nges, Ivo Achu; Escobar, Federico; Fu, Xinmei; Björnsson, Lovisa

2012-01-01

Currently, there is increasing competition for waste as feedstock for the growing number of biogas plants. This has led to fluctuation in feedstock supply and biogas plants being operated below maximum capacity. The feasibility of supplementing a protein/lipid-rich industrial waste (pig manure, slaughterhouse waste, food processing and poultry waste) mesophilic anaerobic digester with carbohydrate-rich energy crops (hemp, maize and triticale) was therefore studied in laboratory scale batch and continuous stirred tank reactors (CSTR) with a view to scale-up to a commercial biogas process. Co-digesting industrial waste and crops led to significant improvement in methane yield per ton of feedstock and carbon-to-nitrogen ratio as compared to digestion of the industrial waste alone. Biogas production from crops in combination with industrial waste also avoids the need for micronutrients normally required in crop digestion. The batch co-digestion methane yields were used to predict co-digestion methane yield in full scale operation. This was done based on the ratio of methane yields observed for laboratory batch and CSTR experiments compared to full scale CSTR digestion of industrial waste. The economy of crop-based biogas production is limited under Swedish conditions; therefore, adding crops to existing industrial waste digestion could be a viable alternative to ensure a constant/reliable supply of feedstock to the anaerobic digester. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Inference of Baseline Fertility and Treatment Effects via a Crop Yield-Fertility Model

PubMed Central

Chen, Hungyen; Yamagishi, Junko; Kishino, Hirohisa

2014-01-01

To effectively manage soil fertility, knowledge is needed of how a crop uses nutrients from fertilizer applied to the soil. Soil quality is a combination of biological, chemical and physical properties and is hard to assess directly because of collective and multiple functional effects. In this paper, we focus on the application of these concepts to agriculture. We define the baseline fertility of soil as the level of fertility that a crop can acquire for growth from the soil. With this strict definition, we propose a new crop yield-fertility model that enables quantification of the process of improving baseline fertility and the effects of treatments solely from the time series of crop yields. The model was modified from Michaelis-Menten kinetics and measured the additional effects of the treatments given the baseline fertility. Using more than 30 years of experimental data, we used the Bayesian framework to estimate the improvements in baseline fertility and the effects of fertilizer and farmyard manure (FYM) on maize (Zea mays), barley (Hordeum vulgare), and soybean (Glycine max) yields. Fertilizer contributed the most to the barley yield and FYM contributed the most to the soybean yield among the three crops. The baseline fertility of the subsurface soil was very low for maize and barley prior to fertilization. In contrast, the baseline fertility in this soil approximated half-saturated fertility for the soybean crop. The long-term soil fertility was increased by adding FYM, but the effect of FYM addition was reduced by the addition of fertilizer. Our results provide evidence that long-term soil fertility under continuous farming was maintained, or increased, by the application of natural nutrients compared with the application of synthetic fertilizer. PMID:25405353

How seasonal temperature or water inputs affect the relative response of C3 crops to elevated [CO2]: A global analysis of open top chamber and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) studies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) has the potential to positively impact C3 food crop production by directly stimulating photosynthetic carbon gain (A), which feeds forward to increase crop biomass and yield. Further stimulation of A and yield can result from an indirect mechan...

Nanobiotechnology can boost crop production and quality: first evidence from increased plant biomass, fruit yield and phytomedicine content in bitter melon (Momordica charantia).

PubMed

Kole, Chittaranjan; Kole, Phullara; Randunu, K Manoj; Choudhary, Poonam; Podila, Ramakrishna; Ke, Pu Chun; Rao, Apparao M; Marcus, Richard K

2013-04-26

Recent research on nanoparticles in a number of crops has evidenced for enhanced germination and seedling growth, physiological activities including photosynthetic activity and nitrogen metabolism, mRNA expression and protein level, and also positive changes in gene expression indicating their potential use in crop improvement. We used a medicinally rich vegetable crop, bitter melon, as a model to evaluate the effects of seed treatment with a carbon-based nanoparticle, fullerol [C60(OH)20], on yield of plant biomass and fruit characters, and phytomedicine contents in fruits. We confirmed the uptake, translocation and accumulation of fullerol through bright field imaging and Fourier transform infra-red spectroscopy. We observed varied effects of seed treatment at five concentrations, including non-consequential and positive, on plant biomass yield, fruit yield and its component characters, and content of five phytomedicines in fruits. Fullerol-treatment resulted in increases up to 54% in biomass yield and 24% in water content. Increases of up to 20% in fruit length, 59% in fruit number, and 70% in fruit weight led to an improvement up to 128% in fruit yield. Contents of two anticancer phytomedicines, cucurbitacin-B and lycopene, were enhanced up to 74% and 82%, respectively, and contents of two antidiabetic phytomedicines, charantin and insulin, were augmented up to 20% and 91%, respectively. Non-significant correlation inter se plant biomass, fruit yield, phytomedicine content and water content evidenced for separate genetic control and biosynthetic pathways for production of plant biomass, fruits, and phytomedicines in fruits, and also no impact of increased water uptake. While our results indicated possibility of improving crop yield and quality by using proper concentrations of fullerol, extreme caution needs to be exercised given emerging knowledge about accumulation and toxicity of nanoparticles in bodily tissues.

Nanobiotechnology can boost crop production and quality: first evidence from increased plant biomass, fruit yield and phytomedicine content in bitter melon (Momordica charantia)

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent research on nanoparticles in a number of crops has evidenced for enhanced germination and seedling growth, physiological activities including photosynthetic activity and nitrogen metabolism, mRNA expression and protein level, and also positive changes in gene expression indicating their potential use in crop improvement. We used a medicinally rich vegetable crop, bitter melon, as a model to evaluate the effects of seed treatment with a carbon-based nanoparticle, fullerol [C60(OH)20], on yield of plant biomass and fruit characters, and phytomedicine contents in fruits. Results We confirmed the uptake, translocation and accumulation of fullerol through bright field imaging and Fourier transform infra-red spectroscopy. We observed varied effects of seed treatment at five concentrations, including non-consequential and positive, on plant biomass yield, fruit yield and its component characters, and content of five phytomedicines in fruits. Fullerol-treatment resulted in increases up to 54% in biomass yield and 24% in water content. Increases of up to 20% in fruit length, 59% in fruit number, and 70% in fruit weight led to an improvement up to 128% in fruit yield. Contents of two anticancer phytomedicines, cucurbitacin-B and lycopene, were enhanced up to 74% and 82%, respectively, and contents of two antidiabetic phytomedicines, charantin and insulin, were augmented up to 20% and 91%, respectively. Non-significant correlation inter se plant biomass, fruit yield, phytomedicine content and water content evidenced for separate genetic control and biosynthetic pathways for production of plant biomass, fruits, and phytomedicines in fruits, and also no impact of increased water uptake. Conclusions While our results indicated possibility of improving crop yield and quality by using proper concentrations of fullerol, extreme caution needs to be exercised given emerging knowledge about accumulation and toxicity of nanoparticles in bodily tissues. PMID:23622112

Annual and Perennial Alleyway Cover Crops Vary in Their Effects on Pratylenchus penetrans in Pacific Northwest Red Raspberry (Rubus idaeus)

PubMed Central

Rudolph, Rachel E.; Zasada, Inga A.; DeVetter, Lisa W.

2017-01-01

Cover crops can provide many benefits to agroecosystems, such as lessening soil erosion and increasing water infiltration. However, cover crop use is not common in established red raspberry (Rubus idaeus) fields in the Pacific Northwest. Raspberry growers are concerned about resource competition between the cover crop and raspberry crop, as well as increasing population densities of the plant-parasitic nematode Pratylenchus penetrans, which has a wide host range and has been shown to reduce raspberry plant vigor and yield. A 2-yr study was conducted in an established ‘Meeker’ raspberry field in northwest Washington to evaluate the effects of nine alleyway cover crops, mowed weed cover, and the industry standard of bare cultivated soil on P. penetrans population dynamics, raspberry yield, and fruit quality. The host status for P. penetrans of cover crops included in the field experiment, as well as Brassica juncea ‘Pacific Gold’ and Sinapis alba ‘Ida Gold’, was also evaluated in greenhouse experiments. In the field experiment, P. penetrans population densities did not increase in alleyway cover crop roots over time or in alleyway soil surrounding cover crop roots (means range from 0 to 116 P. penetrans/100 g of soil) compared with the bare cultivated control (means range from 2 to 55 P. penetrans/100 g of soil). Pratylenchus penetrans populations did not increase over time in raspberry grown adjacent to alleyways with cover crops (means range from 1,081 to 6,120 P. penetrans/g of root) compared with those grown adjacent to bare cultivated soil alleyways (means range from 2,391 to 5,536 P. penetrans/g of root). Raspberry grown adjacent to bare cultivated soil did not have significantly higher yield or fruit quality than raspberry grown adjacent to cover crops in either year of the experiment. In the greenhouse assays, ‘Norwest 553’ wheat and a perennial ryegrass mix were poor hosts for P. penetrans, whereas ‘Nora’ and ‘TAM 606’ oat and ‘Pacific Gold’ and ‘Ida Gold’ mustard were good hosts. These results support the idea that the potential benefits of alleyway cover crops outweigh the potential risk of increasing P. penetrans population densities and do not compromise raspberry yield or fruit quality. PMID:29353934

Responses of Nitrogen Utilization and Apparent Nitrogen Loss to Different Control Measures in the Wheat and Maize Rotation System

PubMed Central

Peng, Zhengping; Liu, Yanan; Li, Yingchun; Abawi, Yahya; Wang, Yanqun; Men, Mingxin; An-Vo, Duc-Anh

2017-01-01

Nitrogen (N) is an essential macronutrient for plant growth and excessive application rates can decrease crop yield and increase N loss into the environment. Field experiments were carried out to understand the effects of N fertilizers on N utilization, crop yield and net income in wheat and maize rotation system of the North China Plain (NCP). Compared to farmers’ N rate (FN), the yield of wheat and maize in reduction N rate by 21–24% based on FN (RN) was improved by 451 kg ha-1, N uptakes improved by 17 kg ha-1 and net income increased by 1671 CNY ha-1, while apparent N loss was reduced by 156 kg ha-1. The controlled-release fertilizer with a 20% reduction of RN (CRF80%), a 20% reduction of RN together with dicyandiamide (RN80%+DCD) and a 20% reduction of RN added with nano-carbon (RN80%+NC) all resulted in an improvement in crop yield and decreased the apparent N losses compared to RN. Contrasted with RN80%+NC, the total crop yield in RN80%+DCD improved by 1185 kg ha-1, N uptake enhanced by 9 kg ha-1 and net income increased by 3929 CNY ha-1, while apparent N loss was similar. Therefore, a 37–39% overall decrease in N rate compared to farmers plus the nitrification inhibitor, DCD, was effective N control measure that increased crop yields, enhanced N efficiencies, and improved economic benefits, while mitigating apparent N loss. There is considerable scope for improved N use effieincy in the intensive wheat -maize rotation of the NCP. PMID:28228772

The potential of cover crops for improving soil function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoate, Chris; Crotty, Felicity

2017-04-01

Cover crops can be grown over the autumn and winter ensuring green cover throughout the year. They have been described as improving soil structure, reducing soil erosion and potentially even a form of grass weed control. These crops retain nutrients within the plant, potentially making them available for future crops, as well as increasing soil organic matter. Over the last three years, we have investigated how different cover crop regimes affect soil quality. Three separate experiments over each autumn/winter period have investigated how different cover crops affect soil biology, physics and chemistry, with each experiment building on the previous one. There have been significant effects of cover crops on soil structure, as well as significantly lower weed biomass and increased yields in the following crop - in comparison to bare stubble. For example, the effect of drilling the cover crops on soil structure in comparison to a bare stubble control that had not been driven on by machinery was quantified, and over the winter period the soil structure of the cover crop treatments changed, with compaction reduced in the cover crop treatments, whilst the bare stubble control remained unchanged. Weeds were found in significantly lower biomass in the cover crop mixes in comparison to the bare stubble control, and significantly lower weed biomass continued to be found in the following spring oat crop where the cover crops had been, indicating a weed suppressive effect that has a continued legacy in the following crop. The following spring oats have shown similar results in the last two years, with higher yields in the previous cover crop areas compared to the bare stubble controls. Overall, these results are indicating that cover crops have the potential to provide improvements to soil quality, reduce weeds and improve yields. We discuss the economic implications.

Mutually beneficial pollinator diversity and crop yield outcomes in small and large farms.

PubMed

Garibaldi, Lucas A; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Vaissière, Bernard E; Gemmill-Herren, Barbara; Hipólito, Juliana; Freitas, Breno M; Ngo, Hien T; Azzu, Nadine; Sáez, Agustín; Åström, Jens; An, Jiandong; Blochtein, Betina; Buchori, Damayanti; Chamorro García, Fermín J; Oliveira da Silva, Fabiana; Devkota, Kedar; Ribeiro, Márcia de Fátima; Freitas, Leandro; Gaglianone, Maria C; Goss, Maria; Irshad, Mohammad; Kasina, Muo; Pacheco Filho, Alípio J S; Kiill, Lucia H Piedade; Kwapong, Peter; Parra, Guiomar Nates; Pires, Carmen; Pires, Viviane; Rawal, Ranbeer S; Rizali, Akhmad; Saraiva, Antonio M; Veldtman, Ruan; Viana, Blandina F; Witter, Sidia; Zhang, Hong

2016-01-22

Ecological intensification, or the improvement of crop yield through enhancement of biodiversity, may be a sustainable pathway toward greater food supplies. Such sustainable increases may be especially important for the 2 billion people reliant on small farms, many of which are undernourished, yet we know little about the efficacy of this approach. Using a coordinated protocol across regions and crops, we quantify to what degree enhancing pollinator density and richness can improve yields on 344 fields from 33 pollinator-dependent crop systems in small and large farms from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. For fields less than 2 hectares, we found that yield gaps could be closed by a median of 24% through higher flower-visitor density. For larger fields, such benefits only occurred at high flower-visitor richness. Worldwide, our study demonstrates that ecological intensification can create synchronous biodiversity and yield outcomes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Nutritional composition and in vitro digestibility of grass and legume winter (cover) crops.

PubMed

Brown, A N; Ferreira, G; Teets, C L; Thomason, W E; Teutsch, C D

2018-03-01

In dairy farming systems, growing winter crops for forage is frequently limited to annual grasses grown in monoculture. The objectives of this study were to determine how cropping grasses alone or in mixtures with legumes affects the yield, nutritional composition, and in vitro digestibility of fresh and ensiled winter crops and the yield, nutritional composition, and in vitro digestibility of the subsequent summer crops. Experimental plots were planted with 15 different winter crops at 3 locations in Virginia. At each site, 4 plots of each treatment were planted in a randomized complete block design. The 15 treatments included 5 winter annual grasses [barley (BA), ryegrass (RG), rye (RY), triticale (TR), and wheat (WT)] in monoculture [i.e., no legumes (NO)] or with 1 of 2 winter annual legumes [crimson clover (CC) and hairy vetch (HV)]. After harvesting the winter crops, corn and forage sorghum were planted within the same plots perpendicular to the winter crop plantings. The nutritional composition and the in vitro digestibility of winter and summer crops were determined for fresh and ensiled samples. Growing grasses in mixtures with CC increased forage dry matter (DM) yield (2.84 Mg/ha), but the yield of mixtures with HV (2.47 Mg/ha) was similar to that of grasses grown in monoculture (2.40 Mg/ha). Growing grasses in mixtures with legumes increased the crude protein concentration of the fresh forage from 13.0% to 15.5% for CC and to 17.3% for HV. For neutral detergent fiber (NDF) concentrations, the interaction between grasses and legumes was significant for both fresh and ensiled forages. Growing BA, RY, and TR in mixtures with legumes decreased NDF concentrations, whereas growing RG and WT with legumes did not affect the NDF concentrations of either the fresh or the ensiled forages. Growing grasses in mixtures with legumes decreased the concentration of sugars of fresh forages relative to grasses grown in monoculture. Primarily, this decrease can be attributed to low concentrations of sugars of mixtures with HV (10.5%). Growing grasses in mixtures with legumes reduced the fiber digestibility of both winter crops (75.7% to 72.8% NDF). Growing grasses in mixtures with legumes did not affect estimated DM yield, nutritional composition, or digestibility of the succeeding summer crops. In conclusion, growing grasses in mixtures with legumes as winter forage crops can increase forage estimated DM yields and its nutritional quality in dairy farming sytems. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improvement of red pepper yield and soil environment by summer catch aquatic crops in greenhouses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, X. F.; Wang, L. Z.; Peng, J.; Wang, G. L.; Guo, X. S.; Wen, T. G.; Gu, D. L.; Wang, W. Z.; Wu, C. W.

2016-08-01

To investigate effects of the rotation of summer catch crops on remediation retrogressed soils in continuous cropping, a field experiment was conducted. Rice, water spinach, or cress were selected as summer catch crops; bare fallow during summer fallow was used as the control group. Results showed that aquatic crops grown in summer fallow period could effectively reduce soil bulk density and pH, facilitate soil nutrient release, and improve soil physical and chemical properties compared with those grown in fallow period. Paddy-upland rotation could improve soil microbial members and increase bacterial and actinomycete populations; by contrast, paddy-upland rotation could reduce fungal populations and enhance bacterium-to-fungus ratio. Paddy-upland rotation could also actively promote activities of soil enzymes, such as urease, phosphatase, invertase, and catalase. The proposed paddy-upland rotation significantly affected the growth of red pepper; the yield and quality of the grown red pepper were enhanced. Summer catch crops, such as rice, water spinach, and cress significantly increased pepper yield in the following growing season by 15.4%, 10.2% and 14.0%, respectively, compared with those grown in fallow treatment. Therefore, the proposed paddy-upland crop rotation could be a useful method to alleviate continuous cropping problems involved in cultivating red pepper in greenhouses.

Using dual-purpose crops in sheep-grazing systems.

PubMed

Dove, Hugh; Kirkegaard, John

2014-05-01

The utilisation of dual-purpose crops, especially wheat and canola grown for forage and grain production in sheep-grazing systems, is reviewed. When sown early and grazed in winter before stem elongation, later-maturing wheat and canola crops can be grazed with little impact on grain yield. Recent research has sought to develop crop- and grazing-management strategies for dual-purpose crops. Aspects examined have been grazing effects on crop growth, recovery and yield development along with an understanding of the grazing value of the crop fodder, its implications for animal nutrition and grazing management to maximise live-weight gain. By alleviating the winter 'feed gap', the increase in winter stocking rate afforded by grazing crops allows crop and livestock production to be increased simultaneously on the same farm. Integration of dual-purpose wheat with canola on mixed farms provides further systems advantages related to widened operational windows, weed and disease control and risk management. Dual-purpose crops are an innovation that has potential to assist in addressing the global food-security challenge. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

A network-based approach for semi-quantitative knowledge mining and its application to yield variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schauberger, Bernhard; Rolinski, Susanne; Müller, Christoph

2016-12-01

Variability of crop yields is detrimental for food security. Under climate change its amplitude is likely to increase, thus it is essential to understand the underlying causes and mechanisms. Crop models are the primary tool to project future changes in crop yields under climate change. A systematic overview of drivers and mechanisms of crop yield variability (YV) can thus inform crop model development and facilitate improved understanding of climate change impacts on crop yields. Yet there is a vast body of literature on crop physiology and YV, which makes a prioritization of mechanisms for implementation in models challenging. Therefore this paper takes on a novel approach to systematically mine and organize existing knowledge from the literature. The aim is to identify important mechanisms lacking in models, which can help to set priorities in model improvement. We structure knowledge from the literature in a semi-quantitative network. This network consists of complex interactions between growing conditions, plant physiology and crop yield. We utilize the resulting network structure to assign relative importance to causes of YV and related plant physiological processes. As expected, our findings confirm existing knowledge, in particular on the dominant role of temperature and precipitation, but also highlight other important drivers of YV. More importantly, our method allows for identifying the relevant physiological processes that transmit variability in growing conditions to variability in yield. We can identify explicit targets for the improvement of crop models. The network can additionally guide model development by outlining complex interactions between processes and by easily retrieving quantitative information for each of the 350 interactions. We show the validity of our network method as a structured, consistent and scalable dictionary of literature. The method can easily be applied to many other research fields.

The Effects of Cattle Manure and Garlic Rotation on Soil under Continuous Cropping of Watermelon (Citrullus lanatus L.).

PubMed

Yang, Ruiping; Mo, Yanling; Liu, Changming; Wang, Yongqi; Ma, Jianxiang; Zhang, Yong; Li, Hao; Zhang, Xian

2016-01-01

Continuous cropping of watermelon (Citrullus lanatus L.) can lead to reduced yield and quality. We aimed to determine the effects of cattle manure addition and rotation with green garlic to improve yield and reduce disease incidence in watermelon and to examine the effects on the biological and chemical characteristics of the soil. Field experiments were performed during 2012-2014 on land previously under two years of continuous watermelon cropping in northwest China. We examined three treatment combinations: watermelon and garlic rotation, cattle manure application before watermelon planting, and combined cattle manure addition and crop rotation. Watermelon monoculture was retained as a control. Watermelon yield was significantly higher and disease incidence was lower in the treatments than the control. The populations of soil bacteria and actinomycetes and the bacteria/fungi ratio increased significantly and soil enzyme activities were generally enhanced under treatments. Available nutrients and soil organic matter contents were much higher under experimental treatments than the control. Results suggest both cattle manure application and garlic rotation can ameliorate the negative effects of continuous cropping. The combined treatment of cattle manure addition and green garlic rotation was optimal to increase yield, reduce disease incidence and enhance soil quality.

Bee pollination increases yield quantity and quality of cash crops in Burkina Faso, West Africa.

PubMed

Stein, Katharina; Coulibaly, Drissa; Stenchly, Kathrin; Goetze, Dethardt; Porembski, Stefan; Lindner, André; Konaté, Souleymane; Linsenmair, Eduard K

2017-12-18

Mutualistic biotic interactions as among flowering plants and their animal pollinators are a key component of biodiversity. Pollination, especially by insects, is a key element in ecosystem functioning, and hence constitutes an ecosystem service of global importance. Not only sexual reproduction of plants is ensured, but also yields are stabilized and genetic variability of crops is maintained, counteracting inbreeding depression and facilitating system resilience. While experiencing rapid environmental change, there is an increased demand for food and income security, especially in sub-Saharan communities, which are highly dependent on small scale agriculture. By combining exclusion experiments, pollinator surveys and field manipulations, this study for the first time quantifies the contribution of bee pollinators to smallholders' production of the major cash crops, cotton and sesame, in Burkina Faso. Pollination by honeybees and wild bees significantly increased yield quantity and quality on average up to 62%, while exclusion of pollinators caused an average yield gap of 37% in cotton and 59% in sesame. Self-pollination revealed inbreeding depression effects on fruit set and low germination rates in the F1-generation. Our results highlight potential negative consequences of any pollinator decline, provoking risks to agriculture and compromising crop yields in sub-Saharan West Africa.

Trading carbon for food: global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land.

PubMed

West, Paul C; Gibbs, Holly K; Monfreda, Chad; Wagner, John; Barford, Carol C; Carpenter, Stephen R; Foley, Jonathan A

2010-11-16

Expanding croplands to meet the needs of a growing population, changing diets, and biofuel production comes at the cost of reduced carbon stocks in natural vegetation and soils. Here, we present a spatially explicit global analysis of tradeoffs between carbon stocks and current crop yields. The difference among regions is striking. For example, for each unit of land cleared, the tropics lose nearly two times as much carbon (∼120 tons·ha(-1) vs. ∼63 tons·ha(-1)) and produce less than one-half the annual crop yield compared with temperate regions (1.71 tons·ha(-1)·y(-1) vs. 3.84 tons·ha(-1)·y(-1)). Therefore, newly cleared land in the tropics releases nearly 3 tons of carbon for every 1 ton of annual crop yield compared with a similar area cleared in the temperate zone. By factoring crop yield into the analysis, we specify the tradeoff between carbon stocks and crops for all areas where crops are currently grown and thereby, substantially enhance the spatial resolution relative to previous regional estimates. Particularly in the tropics, emphasis should be placed on increasing yields on existing croplands rather than clearing new lands. Our high-resolution approach can be used to determine the net effect of local land use decisions.

Tillage and Composting Strategies to Maximize Potentially Mineralizable Nitrogen in Maize-based Cropping Systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cereal crop yields vary drastically between developed and developing nations. In developing nations, a lack of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer often limits yields. Low-cost soil management strategies that increase biologically available soil organic matter can reduce farmer reliance on synthetic N...

Grain yield response to poultry litter application under a wheat-soybean double cropping system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Poultry litter application and double cropping are management practices that could be used with conservation tillage systems to increase yields compared to conventional monocropping systems. The objective of this study was to evaluate wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.]...

Effect of Tillage Practices on Soil Properties and Crop Productivity in Wheat-Mungbean-Rice Cropping System under Subtropical Climatic Conditions

PubMed Central

Islam, Md. Monirul; Hasanuzzaman, Mirza

2014-01-01

This study was conducted to know cropping cycles required to improve OM status in soil and to investigate the effects of medium-term tillage practices on soil properties and crop yields in Grey Terrace soil of Bangladesh under wheat-mungbean-T. aman cropping system. Four different tillage practices, namely, zero tillage (ZT), minimum tillage (MT), conventional tillage (CT), and deep tillage (DT), were studied in a randomized complete block (RCB) design with four replications. Tillage practices showed positive effects on soil properties and crop yields. After four cropping cycles, the highest OM accumulation, the maximum root mass density (0–15 cm soil depth), and the improved physical and chemical properties were recorded in the conservational tillage practices. Bulk and particle densities were decreased due to tillage practices, having the highest reduction of these properties and the highest increase of porosity and field capacity in zero tillage. The highest total N, P, K, and S in their available forms were recorded in zero tillage. All tillage practices showed similar yield after four years of cropping cycles. Therefore, we conclude that zero tillage with 20% residue retention was found to be suitable for soil health and achieving optimum yield under the cropping system in Grey Terrace soil (Aeric Albaquept). PMID:25197702

Soil quality in a pecan – Kura clover alley cropping system in the midwestern USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Intercropping alleys in agroforestry provides an income source until the tree crop produces harvestable yields. However, cultivation of annual crops decreases soil organic matter and increases soil erosion potential, especially on sloping landscapes. Perennial crops maintain a continuous soil cover,...

Crop response to biochar under differing irrigation levels in the southeastern USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Application of biochar to soils is hypothesized to increase crop yield. Crop productivity impacts of biochar application in Southeastern cropping systems consisting of peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.), corn (Zea mays L.), and cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) produced under varying rates of irrigation have...

Increasing plant diversity with border crops reduces insecticide use and increases crop yield in urban agriculture

PubMed Central

Shen, Yan-Jun; Ji, Xiang-Yun; Wu, Xiang-Wen; Zheng, Xiang-Rong; Cheng, Wei; Li, Jun; Jiang, Yao-Pei; Chen, Xin; Weiner, Jacob; Nie, Ming; Ju, Rui-Ting; Yuan, Tao; Tang, Jian-Jun; Tian, Wei-Dong; Zhang, Hao

2018-01-01

Urban agriculture is making an increasing contribution to food security in large cities around the world. The potential contribution of biodiversity to ecological intensification in urban agricultural systems has not been investigated. We present monitoring data collected from rice fields in 34 community farms in mega-urban Shanghai, China, from 2001 to 2015, and show that the presence of a border crop of soybeans and neighboring crops (maize, eggplant and Chinese cabbage), both without weed control, increased invertebrate predator abundance, decreased the abundance of pests and dependence on insecticides, and increased grain yield and economic profits. Two 2 year randomized experiments with the low and high diversity practices in the same locations confirmed these results. Our study shows that diversifying farming practices can make an important contribution to ecological intensification and the sustainable use of associated ecosystem services in an urban ecosystem. PMID:29792597

Increasing plant diversity with border crops reduces insecticide use and increases crop yield in urban agriculture.

PubMed

Wan, Nian-Feng; Cai, You-Ming; Shen, Yan-Jun; Ji, Xiang-Yun; Wu, Xiang-Wen; Zheng, Xiang-Rong; Cheng, Wei; Li, Jun; Jiang, Yao-Pei; Chen, Xin; Weiner, Jacob; Jiang, Jie-Xian; Nie, Ming; Ju, Rui-Ting; Yuan, Tao; Tang, Jian-Jun; Tian, Wei-Dong; Zhang, Hao; Li, Bo

2018-05-24

Urban agriculture is making an increasing contribution to food security in large cities around the world. The potential contribution of biodiversity to ecological intensification in urban agricultural systems has not been investigated. We present monitoring data collected from rice fields in 34 community farms in mega-urban Shanghai, China, from 2001 to 2015, and show that the presence of a border crop of soybeans and neighboring crops (maize, eggplant and Chinese cabbage), both without weed control, increased invertebrate predator abundance, decreased the abundance of pests and dependence on insecticides, and increased grain yield and economic profits. Two 2 year randomized experiments with the low and high diversity practices in the same locations confirmed these results. Our study shows that diversifying farming practices can make an important contribution to ecological intensification and the sustainable use of associated ecosystem services in an urban ecosystem. © 2018, Wan et al.

Management of mine spoil for crop productivity with lignite fly ash and biological amendments.

PubMed

Ram, L C; Srivastava, N K; Tripathi, R C; Jha, S K; Sinha, A K; Singh, G; Manoharan, V

2006-04-01

Long-term field trials using lignite fly ash (LFA) were carried out in rice crops during the period 1996-2000 at Mine I, Neyveli Lignite Corporation, Tamil Nadu. LFA, being alkaline and endowed with an excellent pozzolanic nature, silt loam texture, and plant nutrients, has the potential to improve the texture, fertility, and crop productivity of mine spoil. The rice crops were the first, third, fifth, and sixth crops in rotation. The other crops, such as green gram (second) and sun hemp (fourth), were grown as green manure. For experimental trials, LFA was applied at various dosages (0, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 t/ha), with and without press mud (10 t/ha), before cultivation of the first crop. Repeat applications of LFA were made at the same dosages in treatments of up to 50 t/ha (with and without press mud) before cultivation of the third and fifth crops. Press mud, a lightweight organic waste product from the sugar industry, was used as an organic amendment and source of plant nutrients. Also, a recommended dosage of chemical fertilizer, along with gypsum, humic acid, and biofertilizer as supplementing agents, was applied in all the treatments, including control. With one-time and repeat applications of LFA, from 5 to 20 t/ha (with and without press mud), the crop yield (grain and straw) increased significantly (p < 0.05), in the range from 3.0 to 42.0% over the corresponding control. The maximum yield was obtained with repeat applications of 20 t/ha of LFA with press mud in the third crop. The press mud enhanced the yield in the range of 1.5-10.2% with various dosages of LFA. The optimum dosage of LFA was 20 t/ha for both one-time and repeat applications. Repeat applications of LFA at lower dosages of up to 20 t/ha were more effective in increasing the yield than the corresponding one-time applications of up to 20 t/ha and repeat applications at 50 t/ha. One-time and repeat applications of LFA of up to 20 t/ha (with and without press mud), apart from increasing the yield, evinced improvement in the texture and fertility of mine spoil and the nutrient content of crop produce. Furthermore, some increase in the content of trace and heavy metals and the level of gamma-emitters in the mine spoil and crop produce was observed, but well within the permissible limits. The residual effect of LFA on succeeding crops was also encouraging in terms of eco-friendliness. Beyond 20 t/ha of LFA, the crop yield decreased significantly (p < 0.05), as a result of the formation of hardpan in the mine spoil and possibly the higher concentration of soluble salts in the LFA. However, the adverse effects of soluble salts were annulled progressively during the cultivation of succeeding crops. A plausible mechanism for the improved fertility of mine spoil and the carryover or uptake of toxic trace and heavy metals and gamma-emitters in mine spoil and crop produce is also discussed.

Targeting the right input data to improve crop modeling at global level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, M.; Robertson, R.; Gbegbelegbe, S.; Jones, J. W.; Boote, K. J.; Asseng, S.

2012-12-01

Designed for location-specific simulations, the use of crop models at a global level raises important questions. Crop models are originally premised on small unit areas where environmental conditions and management practices are considered homogeneous. Specific information describing soils, climate, management, and crop characteristics are used in the calibration process. However, when scaling up for global application, we rely on information derived from geographical information systems and weather generators. To run crop models at broad, we use a modeling platform that assumes a uniformly generated grid cell as a unit area. Specific weather, specific soil and specific management practices for each crop are represented for each of the cell grids. Studies on the impacts of the uncertainties of weather information and climate change on crop yield at a global level have been carried out (Osborne et al, 2007, Nelson et al., 2010, van Bussel et al, 2011). Detailed information on soils and management practices at global level are very scarce but recognized to be of critical importance (Reidsma et al., 2009). Few attempts to assess the impact of their uncertainties on cropping systems performances can be found. The objectives of this study are (i) to determine sensitivities of a crop model to soil and management practices, inputs most relevant to low input rainfed cropping systems, and (ii) to define hotspots of sensitivity according to the input data. We ran DSSAT v4.5 globally (CERES-CROPSIM) to simulate wheat yields at 45arc-minute resolution. Cultivar parameters were calibrated and validated for different mega-environments (results not shown). The model was run for nitrogen-limited production systems. This setting was chosen as the most representative to simulate actual yield (especially for low-input rainfed agricultural systems) and assumes crop growth to be free of any pest and diseases damages. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on contrasting management practices, initial soil conditions, and soil characteristics information. Management practices were represented by planting date and the amount of fertilizer, initial conditions estimates for initial nitrogen, soil water, and stable soil carbon, and soil information is based on a simplified version of the WISE database, characterized by soil organic matter, texture and soil depth. We considered these factors as the most important determinants of nutrient supply to crops during their growing season. Our first global results demonstrate that the model is most sensitive to the initial conditions in terms of soil carbon and nitrogen (CN): wheat yields decreased by 45% when soil CN is null and increase by 15% when twice the soil CN content of the reference run is used. The yields did not appear to be very sensitive to initial soil water conditions, varying from 0% yield increase when initial soil water is set to wilting point to 6% yield increase when it was set to field capacity. They are slightly sensitive to nitrogen application: 8% yield decrease when no N is applied to 9% yield increase when 150 kg.ha-1 is applied. However, with closer examination of results, the model is more sensitive to nitrogen application than to initial soil CN content in Vietnam, Thailand and Japan compared to the rest of the world. More analyses per region and results on the planting dates and soil properties will be presented.

Global assessment of nitrogen losses and trade-offs with yields from major crop cultivations.

PubMed

Liu, Wenfeng; Yang, Hong; Liu, Junguo; Azevedo, Ligia B; Wang, Xiuying; Xu, Zongxue; Abbaspour, Karim C; Schulin, Rainer

2016-12-01

Agricultural application of reactive nitrogen (N) for fertilization is a cause of massive negative environmental problems on a global scale. However, spatially explicit and crop-specific information on global N losses into the environment and knowledge of trade-offs between N losses and crop yields are largely lacking. We use a crop growth model, Python-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (PEPIC), to determine global N losses from three major food crops: maize, rice, and wheat. Simulated total N losses into the environment (including water and atmosphere) are 44TgNyr -1 . Two thirds of these, or 29TgNyr -1 , are losses to water alone. Rice accounts for the highest N losses, followed by wheat and maize. The N loss intensity (NLI), defined as N losses per unit of yield, is used to address trade-offs between N losses and crop yields. The NLI presents high variation among different countries, indicating diverse N losses to produce the same amount of yields. Simulations of mitigation scenarios indicate that redistributing global N inputs and improving N management could significantly abate N losses and at the same time even increase yields without any additional total N inputs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Opposing effects of different soil organic matter fractions on crop yields.

PubMed

Wood, Stephen A; Sokol, Noah; Bell, Colin W; Bradford, Mark A; Naeem, Shahid; Wallenstein, Matthew D; Palm, Cheryl A

2016-10-01

Soil organic matter is critical to sustainable agriculture because it provides nutrients to crops as it decomposes and increases nutrient- and water-holding capacity when built up. Fast- and slow-cycling fractions of soil organic matter can have different impacts on crop production because fast-cycling fractions rapidly release nutrients for short-term plant growth and slow-cycling fractions bind nutrients that mineralize slowly and build up water-holding capacity. We explored the controls on these fractions in a tropical agroecosystem and their relationship to crop yields. We performed physical fractionation of soil organic matter from 48 farms and plots in western Kenya. We found that fast-cycling, particulate organic matter was positively related to crop yields, but did not have a strong effect, while slower-cycling, mineral-associated organic matter was negatively related to yields. Our finding that slower-cycling organic matter was negatively related to yield points to a need to revise the view that stabilization of organic matter positively impacts food security. Our results support a new paradigm that different soil organic matter fractions are controlled by different mechanisms, potentially leading to different relationships with management outcomes, like crop yield. Effectively managing soils for sustainable agriculture requires quantifying the effects of specific organic matter fractions on these outcomes. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Variation in Yield Gap Induced by Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium Fertilizer in North China Plain

PubMed Central

Dai, Xiaoqin; Ouyang, Zhu; Li, Yunsheng; Wang, Huimin

2013-01-01

A field experiment was conducted under a wheat-maize rotation system from 1990 to 2006 in North China Plain (NCP) to determine the effects of N, P and K on yield and yield gap. There were five treatments: NPK, PK, NK, NP and a control. Average wheat and maize yields were the highest in the NPK treatment, followed by those in the NP plots among all treatments. For wheat and maize yield, a significant increasing trend over time was found in the NPK-treated plots and a decreasing trend in the NK-treated plots. In the absence of N or P, wheat and maize yields were significantly lower than those in the NPK treatment. For both crops, the increasing rate of the yield gap was the highest in the P omission plots, i.e., 189.1 kg ha−1 yr−1 for wheat and 560.6 kg ha−1 yr−1 for maize. The cumulative omission of P fertilizer induced a deficit in the soil available N and extractable P concentrations for maize. The P fertilizer was more pivotal in long-term wheat and maize growth and soil fertility conservation in NCP, although the N fertilizer input was important for both crops growth. The crop response to K fertilizers was much lower than that to N or P fertilizers, but for maize, the cumulative omission of K fertilizer decreased the yield by 26% and increased the yield gap at a rate of 322.7 kg ha−1 yr−1. The soil indigenous K supply was not sufficiently high to meet maize K requirement over a long period. The proper application of K fertilizers is necessary for maize production in the region. Thus, the appropriate application of N and P fertilizers for the growth of both crops, while regularly combining K fertilizers for maize growth, is absolutely necessary for sustainable crop production in the NCP. PMID:24349204

Variation in yield gap induced by nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizer in North China Plain.

PubMed

Dai, Xiaoqin; Ouyang, Zhu; Li, Yunsheng; Wang, Huimin

2013-01-01

A field experiment was conducted under a wheat-maize rotation system from 1990 to 2006 in North China Plain (NCP) to determine the effects of N, P and K on yield and yield gap. There were five treatments: NPK, PK, NK, NP and a control. Average wheat and maize yields were the highest in the NPK treatment, followed by those in the NP plots among all treatments. For wheat and maize yield, a significant increasing trend over time was found in the NPK-treated plots and a decreasing trend in the NK-treated plots. In the absence of N or P, wheat and maize yields were significantly lower than those in the NPK treatment. For both crops, the increasing rate of the yield gap was the highest in the P omission plots, i.e., 189.1 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) for wheat and 560.6 kg ha(-1) yr(-1) for maize. The cumulative omission of P fertilizer induced a deficit in the soil available N and extractable P concentrations for maize. The P fertilizer was more pivotal in long-term wheat and maize growth and soil fertility conservation in NCP, although the N fertilizer input was important for both crops growth. The crop response to K fertilizers was much lower than that to N or P fertilizers, but for maize, the cumulative omission of K fertilizer decreased the yield by 26% and increased the yield gap at a rate of 322.7 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). The soil indigenous K supply was not sufficiently high to meet maize K requirement over a long period. The proper application of K fertilizers is necessary for maize production in the region. Thus, the appropriate application of N and P fertilizers for the growth of both crops, while regularly combining K fertilizers for maize growth, is absolutely necessary for sustainable crop production in the NCP.

Probabilistic Description of the Hydrologic Risk in Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, G.; Porporato, A. M.

2011-12-01

Supplemental irrigation represents one of the main strategies to mitigate the effects of climatic variability on agroecosystems productivity and profitability, at the expenses of increasing water requirements for irrigation purposes. Optimizing water allocation for crop yield preservation and sustainable development needs to account for hydro-climatic variability, which is by far the main source of uncertainty affecting crop yields and irrigation water requirements. In this contribution, a widely applicable probabilistic framework is proposed to quantitatively define the hydrologic risk of yield reduction for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. The occurrence of rainfall events and irrigation applications are linked probabilistically to crop development during the growing season. Based on these linkages, long-term and real-time yield reduction risk indices are defined as a function of climate, soil and crop parameters, as well as irrigation strategy. The former risk index is suitable for long-term irrigation strategy assessment and investment planning, while the latter risk index provides a rigorous probabilistic quantification of the emergence of drought conditions during a single growing season. This probabilistic framework allows also assessing the impact of limited water availability on crop yield, thus guiding the optimal allocation of water resources for human and environmental needs. Our approach employs relatively few parameters and is thus easily and broadly applicable to different crops and sites, under current and future climate scenarios, thus facilitating the assessment of the impact of increasingly frequent water shortages on agricultural productivity, profitability, and sustainability.

A Novel Approach for Forecasting Crop Production and Yield Using Remotely Sensed Satellite Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, R. K.; Budde, M. E.; Senay, G. B.; Rowland, J.

2017-12-01

Forecasting crop production in advance of crop harvest plays a significant role in drought impact management, improved food security, stabilizing food grain market prices, and poverty reduction. This becomes essential, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where agriculture is a critical source of livelihoods, but lacks good quality agricultural statistical data. With increasing availability of low cost satellite data, faster computing power, and development of modeling algorithms, remotely sensed images are becoming a common source for deriving information for agricultural, drought, and water management. Many researchers have shown that the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), based on red and near-infrared reflectance, can be effectively used for estimating crop production and yield. Similarly, crop production and yield have been closely related to evapotranspiration (ET) also as there are strong linkages between production/yield and transpiration based on plant physiology. Thus, we combined NDVI and ET information from remotely sensed images for estimating total production and crop yield prior to crop harvest for Niger and Burkina Faso in West Africa. We identified the optimum time (dekads 23-29) for cumulating NDVI and ET and developed a new algorithm for estimating crop production and yield. We used the crop data from 2003 to 2008 to calibrate our model and the data from 2009 to 2013 for validation. Our results showed that total crop production can be estimated within 5% of actual production (R2 = 0.98) about 30-45 days before end of the harvest season. This novel approach can be operationalized to provide a valuable tool to decision makers for better drought impact management in drought-prone regions of the world.

Changes in water budgets and sediment yields from a hypothetical agricultural field as a function of landscape and management characteristics--A unit field modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roth, Jason L.; Capel, Paul D.

2012-01-01

Crop agriculture occupies 13 percent of the conterminous United States. Agricultural management practices, such as crop and tillage types, affect the hydrologic flow paths through the landscape. Some agricultural practices, such as drainage and irrigation, create entirely new hydrologic flow paths upon the landscapes where they are implemented. These hydrologic changes can affect the magnitude and partitioning of water budgets and sediment erosion. Given the wide degree of variability amongst agricultural settings, changes in the magnitudes of hydrologic flow paths and sediment erosion induced by agricultural management practices commonly are difficult to characterize, quantify, and compare using only field observations. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to simulate two landscape characteristics (slope and soil texture) and three agricultural management practices (land cover/crop type, tillage type, and selected agricultural land management practices) to evaluate their effects on the water budgets of and sediment yield from agricultural lands. An array of sixty-eight 60-year simulations were run, each representing a distinct natural or agricultural scenario with various slopes, soil textures, crop or land cover types, tillage types, and select agricultural management practices on an isolated 16.2-hectare field. Simulations were made to represent two common agricultural climate regimes: arid with sprinkler irrigation and humid. These climate regimes were constructed with actual climate and irrigation data. The results of these simulations demonstrate the magnitudes of potential changes in water budgets and sediment yields from lands as a result of landscape characteristics and agricultural practices adopted on them. These simulations showed that variations in landscape characteristics, such as slope and soil type, had appreciable effects on water budgets and sediment yields. As slopes increased, sediment yields increased in both the arid and humid environments. However, runoff did not increase with slope in the arid environment as was observed in the humid environment. In both environments, clayey soils exhibited the greatest amount of runoff and sediment yields while sandy soils had greater recharge and lessor runoff and sediment yield. Scenarios simulating the effects of the timing and type of tillage practice showed that no-till, conservation, and contouring tillages reduced sediment yields and, with the exception of no-till, runoff in both environments. Changes in land cover and crop type simulated the changes between the evapotransporative potential and surface roughness imparted by specific vegetations. Substantial differences in water budgets and sediment yields were observed between most agricultural crops and the natural covers selected for each environment: scrub and prairie grass for the arid environment and forest and prairie grass for the humid environment. Finally, a group of simulations was performed to model selected agricultural management practices. Among the selected practices subsurface drainage and strip cropping exhibited the largest shifts in water budgets and sediment yields. The practice of crop rotation (corn/soybean) and cover cropping (corn/rye) were predicted to increase sediment yields from a field planted as conventional corn.

Increased SBPase activity improves photosynthesis and grain yield in wheat grown in greenhouse conditions.

PubMed

Driever, Steven M; Simkin, Andrew J; Alotaibi, Saqer; Fisk, Stuart J; Madgwick, Pippa J; Sparks, Caroline A; Jones, Huw D; Lawson, Tracy; Parry, Martin A J; Raines, Christine A

2017-09-26

To meet the growing demand for food, substantial improvements in yields are needed. This is particularly the case for wheat, where global yield has stagnated in recent years. Increasing photosynthesis has been identified as a primary target to achieve yield improvements. To increase leaf photosynthesis in wheat, the level of the Calvin-Benson cycle enzyme sedoheptulose-1,7-biphosphatase (SBPase) has been increased through transformation and expression of a Brachypodium distachyon SBPase gene construct. Transgenic lines with increased SBPase protein levels and activity were grown under greenhouse conditions and showed enhanced leaf photosynthesis and increased total biomass and dry seed yield. This showed the potential of improving yield potential by increasing leaf photosynthesis in a crop species such as wheat. The results are discussed with regard to future strategies for further improvement of photosynthesis in wheat.This article is part of the themed issue 'Enhancing photosynthesis in crop plants: targets for improvement'. © 2017 The Authors.

Chemical intervention in plant sugar signalling increases yield and resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffiths, Cara A.; Sagar, Ram; Geng, Yiqun; Primavesi, Lucia F.; Patel, Mitul K.; Passarelli, Melissa K.; Gilmore, Ian S.; Steven, Rory T.; Bunch, Josephine; Paul, Matthew J.; Davis, Benjamin G.

2016-12-01

The pressing global issue of food insecurity due to population growth, diminishing land and variable climate can only be addressed in agriculture by improving both maximum crop yield potential and resilience. Genetic modification is one potential solution, but has yet to achieve worldwide acceptance, particularly for crops such as wheat. Trehalose-6-phosphate (T6P), a central sugar signal in plants, regulates sucrose use and allocation, underpinning crop growth and development. Here we show that application of a chemical intervention strategy directly modulates T6P levels in planta. Plant-permeable analogues of T6P were designed and constructed based on a ‘signalling-precursor’ concept for permeability, ready uptake and sunlight-triggered release of T6P in planta. We show that chemical intervention in a potent sugar signal increases grain yield, whereas application to vegetative tissue improves recovery and resurrection from drought. This technology offers a means to combine increases in yield with crop stress resilience. Given the generality of the T6P pathway in plants and other small-molecule signals in biology, these studies suggest that suitable synthetic exogenous small-molecule signal precursors can be used to directly enhance plant performance and perhaps other organism function.

Cultivar Mixture Cropping Increased Water Use Efficiency in Winter Wheat under Limited Irrigation Conditions

PubMed Central

Wang, Yunqi; Zhang, Yinghua; Ji, Wei; Yu, Peng; Wang, Bin; Li, Jinpeng; Han, Meikun; Xu, Xuexin; Wang, Zhimin

2016-01-01

The effects of cultivar mixture cropping on yield, biomass, and water use efficiency (WUE) in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) were investigated under non-irrigation (W0, no irrigation during growth stage), one time irrigation (W1, irrigation applied at stem elongation) and two times irrigation (W2, irrigation applied at stem elongation and anthesis) conditions. Nearly 90% of cultivar mixture cropping treatments experienced an increase in grain yield as compared with the mean of the pure stands under W0, those for W1 and W2 were 80% and 85%, respectively. Over 75% of cultivar mixture cropping treatments got greater biomass than the mean of the pure stands under the three irrigation conditions. Cultivar mixture cropping cost more water than pure stands under W0 and W1, whereas the water consumption under W2 decreased by 5.9%–6.8% as compared with pure stands. Approximately 90% of cultivar mixtures showed an increase of 5.4%–34.5% in WUE as compared with the mean of the pure stands, and about 75% of cultivar mixtures had 0.8%–28.5% higher WUE than the better pure stands under W0. Similarly, there were a majority of mixture cropping treatments with higher WUE than the mean and the better one of the pure stands under W1 and W2. On the whole, proper cultivar mixture cropping could increase yield and WUE, and a higher increase in WUE occurred under limited irrigation condition. PMID:27362563

Comparison of Water and Nutrient Cycles in the North China Plain and U.S. High Plains related to Climate Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanlon, B. R.; Pei, H.; Shen, Y.

2014-12-01

The North China Plain (NCP) and U.S. High Plains play critical roles in food production, which relies heavily on groundwater resources for irrigation and nutrients. Here we evaluate food production in terms of resource availability (water and nutrients) and impacts on resources (groundwater quantity and quality) within the context of climate forcing. Double cropping of corn and wheat in the NCP under intensive irrigation (80 - 90% of cropland) and massive N fertilization (384 kg/ha) resulted in total corn plus wheat yields of 13.4 kg/ha (2002 - 2011). In contrast, single cropping of corn on the USHP under less intensive irrigation (40% of cropland) and N fertilization (90 kg/ha) resulted in only 15% lower yield in the USHP (11.7 kg/ha) than in the NCP. However, irrigation essentially decouples crop production from climate extremes. Average corn and wheat yield in the NCP over the past three decades is not correlated with precipitation. Irrigated corn yield in the north and central USHP was actually higher during the recent 2012 drought by up to ~ 30% relative to the 30 year long-term mean yield whereas rainfed corn yield decreased by ~50% during the drought. The main impact of climate extremes on the aquifers is indirect through increased irrigation pumpage for crop production rather than direct through changes in recharge. Effects of crop production on groundwater quality should be much greater in the NCP because of ~4 times higher fertilizer application relative to that in the USHP. Field research experiments in the NCP indicate that much of this fertilizer application (> 200 kg N/ha) does not impact yield and could potentially leach into underlying aquifers. Projected groundwater depletion in these aquifers should result in a shift from intensive irrigation to more rainfed crop production, increasing vulnerability of crop production to climate extremes.

[Fungal population structure and its biological effect in rhizosphere soil of continuously cropped potato].

PubMed

Meng, Pin-Pin; Liu, Xing; Qiu, Hui-Zhen; Zhang, Wen-Ming; Zhang, Chun-Hong; Wang, Di; Zhang, Jun-Lian; Shen, Qi-Rong

2012-11-01

Continuous cropping obstacle is one of the main restriction factors in potato industry. In order to explore the mechanisms of potato's continuous cropping obstacle and to reduce the impact on potato's tuber yield, a field experiment combined with PCR-DGGE molecular fingerprinting was conducted to investigate the fungal population structure and its biological effect in rhizosphere soil of continuously cropped potato. With the increasing year of potato' s continuous cropping, the numbers of visible bands in rhizosphere fungal DGGE profiles increased obviously. As compared with that of CK (rotation cropping), the operational taxonomic unit (OTU) in treatments of one to five years continuous cropping was increased by 38.5%, 38.5%, 30.8%, 46.2%, and 76.9% respectively, indicating that potato's continuous cropping caused an obvious increase in the individual numbers of dominant fungal populations in rhizosphere soil. Also with the increasing year of potato's continuous cropping, the similarity of the fungal population structure among the treatments had a gradual decrease. The sequencing of the fungal DGGE bands showed that with the increasing year of continuous cropping, the numbers of the potato's rhizosphere soil-borne pathogens Fusarium oxysporum and F. solani increased obviously, while the number of Chaetomium globosum, as a biocontrol species, had a marked decrease in the fifth year of continuous cropping. It was suggested that potato' s continuous cropping caused the pathogen fungal populations become the dominant microbial populations in rhizosphere soil, and the rhizosphere micro-ecological environment deteriorated, which in turn affected the root system, making the root vigor and its absorption area reduced, and ultimately, the tuber yield decreased markedly.

Soil Water Holding Capacity Mitigates Downside Risk and Volatility in US Rainfed Maize: Time to Invest in Soil Organic Matter?

PubMed Central

Williams, Alwyn; Hunter, Mitchell C.; Kammerer, Melanie; Kane, Daniel A.; Jordan, Nicholas R.; Mortensen, David A.; Smith, Richard G.; Snapp, Sieglinde

2016-01-01

Yield stability is fundamental to global food security in the face of climate change, and better strategies are needed for buffering crop yields against increased weather variability. Regional- scale analyses of yield stability can support robust inferences about buffering strategies for widely-grown staple crops, but have not been accomplished. We present a novel analytical approach, synthesizing 2000–2014 data on weather and soil factors to quantify their impact on county-level maize yield stability in four US states that vary widely in these factors (Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania). Yield stability is quantified as both ‘downside risk’ (minimum yield potential, MYP) and ‘volatility’ (temporal yield variability). We show that excessive heat and drought decreased mean yields and yield stability, while higher precipitation increased stability. Soil water holding capacity strongly affected yield volatility in all four states, either directly (Minnesota and Pennsylvania) or indirectly, via its effects on MYP (Illinois and Michigan). We infer that factors contributing to soil water holding capacity can help buffer maize yields against variable weather. Given that soil water holding capacity responds (within limits) to agronomic management, our analysis highlights broadly relevant management strategies for buffering crop yields against climate variability, and informs region-specific strategies. PMID:27560666

The impacts of data constraints on the predictive performance of a general process-based crop model (PeakN-crop v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldararu, Silvia; Purves, Drew W.; Smith, Matthew J.

2017-04-01

Improving international food security under a changing climate and increasing human population will be greatly aided by improving our ability to modify, understand and predict crop growth. What we predominantly have at our disposal are either process-based models of crop physiology or statistical analyses of yield datasets, both of which suffer from various sources of error. In this paper, we present a generic process-based crop model (PeakN-crop v1.0) which we parametrise using a Bayesian model-fitting algorithm to three different sources: data-space-based vegetation indices, eddy covariance productivity measurements and regional crop yields. We show that the model parametrised without data, based on prior knowledge of the parameters, can largely capture the observed behaviour but the data-constrained model greatly improves both the model fit and reduces prediction uncertainty. We investigate the extent to which each dataset contributes to the model performance and show that while all data improve on the prior model fit, the satellite-based data and crop yield estimates are particularly important for reducing model error and uncertainty. Despite these improvements, we conclude that there are still significant knowledge gaps, in terms of available data for model parametrisation, but our study can help indicate the necessary data collection to improve our predictions of crop yields and crop responses to environmental changes.

Intensifying a semi-arid dryland crop rotation by replacing fallow with pea

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing dryland cropping system intensity in the semi-arid central Great Plains by reducing frequency of fallow can add diversity to cropping systems and decrease erosion potential. However elimination of the periodic fallow phase has been shown to reduce yields of subsequent crops in this region...

Influence of cover crops on arthropods, free-living nematodes, and yield in a succeeding no-till soybean crop

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Production practices that incorporate fall-planted cover crops into no-till agronomic crop rotations have become increasingly popular across the Northeastern United States for weed suppression and enhancing environmental stewardship. Field experiments were conducted in 2011 and 2012 to investigate e...

Climate change impacts on crop yield in the Euro-Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Dentener, Frank; Niemeyer, Stefan; Dosio, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Davide

2017-04-01

Agriculture is strongly influenced by climate variability, climate extremes and climate changes. Recent studies on past decades have identified and analysed the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop yields in the Euro-Mediterranean region. As these effects could be amplified in a changing climate context, it is essential to analyse available climate projections and investigate the possible impacts on European agriculture in terms of crop yield. In this study, five model runs from the Euro-CORDEX initiative under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used. Climate model data have been bias corrected and then used to feed a mechanistic crop growth model. The crop model has been run under different settings to better sample the intrinsic uncertainties. Among the main results, it is worth to report a weak but significant and spatially homogeneous increase in potential wheat yield at mid-century (under a CO2 fertilisation effect scenario). While more complex changes seem to characterise potential maize yield, with large areas in the region showing a weak-to-moderate decrease.

Closing yield gaps: perils and possibilities for biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Phalan, Ben; Green, Rhys; Balmford, Andrew

2014-04-05

Increasing agricultural productivity to 'close yield gaps' creates both perils and possibilities for biodiversity conservation. Yield increases often have negative impacts on species within farmland, but at the same time could potentially make it more feasible to minimize further cropland expansion into natural habitats. We combine global data on yield gaps, projected future production of maize, rice and wheat, the distributions of birds and their estimated sensitivity to changes in crop yields to map where it might be most beneficial for bird conservation to close yield gaps as part of a land-sparing strategy, and where doing so might be most damaging. Closing yield gaps to attainable levels to meet projected demand in 2050 could potentially help spare an area equivalent to that of the Indian subcontinent. Increasing yields this much on existing farmland would inevitably reduce its biodiversity, and therefore we advocate efforts both to constrain further increases in global food demand, and to identify the least harmful ways of increasing yields. The land-sparing potential of closing yield gaps will not be realized without specific mechanisms to link yield increases to habitat protection (and restoration), and therefore we suggest that conservationists, farmers, crop scientists and policy-makers collaborate to explore promising mechanisms.

Calorie increase and water savings of redistributing global crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, K. F.; Seveso, A.; Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.

2015-12-01

Human demand for crop production is expected to increase substantially in the coming decades as a result of population growth, richer diets and biofuel use. In order for food production to keep pace, unprecedented amounts of resources - water, fertilizers, energy - will be required. This has led to calls for 'sustainable intensification' in which yields are increased on existing croplands while seeking to minimize impacts on water and other agricultural resources. Recent studies have quantified aspects of this, showing that there is a large potential to improve crop yields and increase harvest frequencies to better meet human demand. Though promising, both solutions would necessitate large additional inputs of water and fertilizer in order to be achieved under current technologies. However, the question of whether the current distribution of crops is, in fact, the best for realizing maximized production has not been considered to date. To this end, we ask: Is it possible to increase calorie production and minimize water demand by simply growing crops where soil and climate conditions are best suited? Here we use maps of agro-ecological suitability - a measure of physical and chemical soil fertility - for 15 major food crops to identify differences between current crop distributions and where they can most suitably be planted. By redistributing crops across currently cultivated lands, we determine the potential improvement in calorie production as well as the associated change in water demand. We also consider what distribution of crops would maintain current calorie production while minimizing crop water demand. In doing all of this, our study provides a novel tool for improving crop calorie production without necessarily increasing resource demands.

Photoperiod shift effects on yield characteristics of rice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Volk, G. M.; Mitchell, C. A.

1995-01-01

Edible yield must be maximized for each crop species selected for inclusion in the Controlled Ecological Life-Support System (CELSS) proposed by NASA to support long-term manned space missions. In a greenhouse study aimed at increasing biomass partitioning to rice (Oryza sativa L.) grain, plants of the high yielding semi-dwarf rice cultivar Ai-Nan-Tsao were started in pots under 8-h photoperiods at a density of 212 plants m-2. After different periods of time under 8-h photoperiods, pots were switched to continuous light for the remainder of the cropping cycle. Continuous light did not delay time to first panicle emergence (60 d) or time to harvest (83 d). There was a positive correlation between the length of continuous light treatments and nongrain biomass. Grain yield (1.6 +/- 0.2 g plant-1) did not increase in continuous light. Yield-efficiency rate (grain weight per length of cropping cycle, canopy volume, and weight of nongrain shoot biomass) was used to compare treatments. Small Ai-Nan-Tsao rice canopies grown under 8-h photoperiods were more efficient producers of grain than canopies grown under continuous light for a portion of the rice cropping cycle.

Meeting the demand for crop production: the challenge of yield decline in crops grown in short rotations.

PubMed

Bennett, Amanda J; Bending, Gary D; Chandler, David; Hilton, Sally; Mills, Peter

2012-02-01

There is a trend world-wide to grow crops in short rotation or in monoculture, particularly in conventional agriculture. This practice is becoming more prevalent due to a range of factors including economic market trends, technological advances, government incentives, and retailer and consumer demands. Land-use intensity will have to increase further in future in order to meet the demands of growing crops for both bioenergy and food production, and long rotations may not be considered viable or practical. However, evidence indicates that crops grown in short rotations or monoculture often suffer from yield decline compared to those grown in longer rotations or for the first time. Numerous factors have been hypothesised as contributing to yield decline, including biotic factors such as plant pathogens, deleterious rhizosphere microorganisms, mycorrhizas acting as pathogens, and allelopathy or autotoxicity of the crop, as well as abiotic factors such as land management practices and nutrient availability. In many cases, soil microorganisms have been implicated either directly or indirectly in yield decline. Although individual factors may be responsible for yield decline in some cases, it is more likely that combinations of factors interact to cause the problem. However, evidence confirming the precise role of these various factors is often lacking in field studies due to the complex nature of cropping systems and the numerous interactions that take place within them. Despite long-term knowledge of the yield-decline phenomenon, there are few tools to counteract it apart from reverting to longer crop rotations or break crops. Alternative cropping and management practices such as double-cropping or inter-cropping, tillage and organic amendments may prove valuable for combating some of the negative effects seen when crops are grown in short rotation. Plant breeding continues to be important, although this does require a specific breeding target to be identified. This review identifies gaps in our understanding of yield decline, particularly with respect to the complex interactions occurring between the different components of agro-ecosystems, which may well influence food security in the 21(st) Century. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Possible pathways and tensions in the food and water nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grafton, R. Quentin; Williams, John; Jiang, Qiang

2017-05-01

"Bottom-up" field-based, crop-hydrological models are used to estimate food production and irrigation water extractions under multiple scenarios of water and nitrogen use and crop yield increases from 2010 to 2050 for 19 countries. The results show: (1) a food deficit before 2050 under a worst case climate change scenario in terms of annual crop yield improvement; (2) substantial water deficits, as a result of irrigation, for major food-producing countries that will prevent these nations from meeting their domestic food requirements in the absence of investments in water infrastructure or food imports; and (3) a plateau in terms of crop food production associated with increased water extractions given no further increase in the current area of irrigated agriculture. Possible pathways to respond to the tensions in the food-water nexus are evaluated and include: (1) higher water productivity; (2) food trade; (3) improvements in both crop yield and "sustainable" total factor productivity; (4) greater investment in water infrastructure; and (5) integrative policies and decision processes. Without a combination of some, or all, of these possible pathways, appropriately adapted to bio-physical and socio-economic circumstances, the world faces grave risks in food and water security out to 2050.

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon;

High-biomass C4 grasses-Filling the yield gap.

PubMed

Mullet, John E

2017-08-01

A significant increase in agricultural productivity will be required by 2050 to meet the needs of an expanding and rapidly developing world population, without allocating more land and water resources to agriculture, and despite slowing rates of grain yield improvement. This review examines the proposition that high-biomass C 4 grasses could help fill the yield gap. High-biomass C 4 grasses exhibit high yield due to C 4 photosynthesis, long growth duration, and efficient capture and utilization of light, water, and nutrients. These C 4 grasses exhibit high levels of drought tolerance during their long vegetative growth phase ideal for crops grown in water-limited regions of agricultural production. The stems of some high-biomass C 4 grasses can accumulate high levels of non-structural carbohydrates that could be engineered to enhance biomass yield and utility as feedstocks for animals and biofuels production. The regulatory pathway that delays flowering of high-biomass C 4 grasses in long days has been elucidated enabling production and deployment of hybrids. Crop and landscape-scale modeling predict that utilization of high-biomass C 4 grass crops on land and in regions where water resources limit grain crop yield could increase agricultural productivity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating crop yields and crop evapotranspiration distributions from remote sensing and geospatial agricultural data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, T.; McLaughlin, D.

2017-12-01

Growing more crops to provide a secure food supply to an increasing global population will further stress land and water resources that have already been significantly altered by agriculture. The connection between production and resource use depends on crop yields and unit evapotranspiration (UET) rates that vary greatly, over both time and space. For regional and global analyses of food security it is appropriate to treat yield and UET as uncertain variables conditioned on climatic and soil properties. This study describes how probability distributions of these variables can be estimated by combining remotely sensed land use and evapotranspiration data with in situ agronomic and soils data, all available at different resolutions and coverages. The results reveal the influence of water and temperature stress on crop yield at large spatial scales. They also provide a basis for stochastic modeling and optimization procedures that explicitly account for uncertainty in the environmental factors that affect food production.

Yield Potential of Soil Water and Its Sustainability for Dryland Spring Maize with Plastic Film Mulch on the Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Wen; Liu, Wenzhao

2016-04-01

Plastic film mulch(PM) is an agronomic measure widely used in the dryland spring maize production system on the Loess Plateau of China. The measure can greatly increase yield of dryland maize due to its significant effects on soil water conservation. Few researches have been done to investigate how the yield potential is impacted by PM. The yield-water use (ET) boundary equation raised by French and Schultz provides a simple approach to calculate crop water limited yield potential and gives a benchmark for farmers in managing their crops. However, method used in building the equation is somewhat arbitrary and has no strict principle, which leads to the uncertainty of equation when it is applied. Though using PM can increase crop yield, it increases soil temperature, promotes crop growth and increases the water transpired by crop, which further leads to high water consumption as compared with crops without PM. This means that PM may lead to the overuse of soil water and hence is unsustainable in a long run. This research is mainly focused on the yield potential and sustainability of PMing for spring maize on the Loess Plateau. A principle that may be utilized by any other researchers was proposed based on French & Schultz's boundary equation and on part of quantile regression theory. We used a data set built by collecting the experimental data from published papers and analyzed the water-limited yield potential of spring maize on the Loess Plateau. Moreover, maize yield and soil water dynamics under PM were investigated by a long-term site field experiment. Results show that on the Loess Plateau, the water limited yield potential can be calculated using the boundary equation y = 60.5×(x - 50), with a platform yield of 15954 kghm-2 after the water use exceeds 314 mm. Without PMing, the water limited yield potential can be estimated by the boundary equation y = 47.5×(x - 62.3) , with a platform yield of 12840 kghm-2 when the water use exceeds 325 mm, which means PM can increase the yield potential of spring maize in water limited condition. From the result the field experiment, the grain yield under PM ranged from 6556 to 12615 kg/ha, being 803 to 3616 kg/hm-2 higher than no mulching (CK); and the WUE under plastic mulch ranged from 18.3 to 33.5 kghm-2mm-1, significantly higher than the CK in most of the experiment years (17.5-23.6 kghm-2mm-1). The ET for PM was higher than that of the CK (significance in 2009 and 2011), while it also increased the root biomass in soil, over consumed soil water and improved soil structure increased rainfall infiltration in fallow period. The result shows that the stored water by PM was 12 to 56 mm higher than the CK in the seven experiment years. So after seven years of cultivation, no significant difference was observed between treatments for the soil water storage in 0-6 m soil profile, which means that plastic film mulch can not only increase maize yield, but also is sustainable in the respect of soil water.

Development of High Yield Feedstocks and Biomass Conversion Technology for Renewable Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hashimoto, Andrew G.; Crow, Susan; DeBeryshe, Barbara

2015-04-09

This project had two main goals. The first goal was to evaluate several high yielding tropical perennial grasses as feedstock for biofuel production, and to characterize the feedstock for compatible biofuel production systems. The second goal was to assess the integration of renewable energy systems for Hawaii. The project focused on high-yield grasses (napiergrass, energycane, sweet sorghum, and sugarcane). Field plots were established to evaluate the effects of elevation (30, 300 and 900 meters above sea level) and irrigation (50%, 75% and 100% of sugarcane plantation practice) on energy crop yields and input. The test plots were extensive monitored including:more » hydrologic studies to measure crop water use and losses through seepage and evapotranspiration; changes in soil carbon stock; greenhouse gas flux (CO 2, CH 4, and N 2O) from the soil surface; and root morphology, biomass, and turnover. Results showed significant effects of environment on crop yields. In general, crop yields decrease as the elevation increased, being more pronounced for sweet sorghum and energycane than napiergrass. Also energy crop yields were higher with increased irrigation levels, being most pronounced with energycane and less so with sweet sorghum. Daylight length greatly affected sweet sorghum growth and yields. One of the energy crops (napiergrass) was harvested at different ages (2, 4, 6, and 8 months) to assess the changes in feedstock characteristics with age and potential to generate co-products. Although there was greater potential for co-products from younger feedstock, the increased production was not sufficient to offset the additional cost of harvesting multiple times per year. The feedstocks were also characterized to assess their compatibility with biochemical and thermochemical conversion processes. The project objectives are being continued through additional support from the Office of Naval Research, and the Biomass Research and Development Initiative. Renewable energy assessments included: biomass feedstocks currently being produced by Hawaiian Commercial & Sugar Co., and possibilities of producing methane from agricultural and livestock wastes and the potential of photovoltaic systems for irrigation pumping at HC&S. Finally, the impact of a micro-hydroelectric system on a small-farm economics and the local community was assessed.« less

A scalable satellite-based crop yield mapper: Integrating satellites and crop models for field-scale estimation in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, M.; Singh, B.; Srivastava, A.; Lobell, D. B.

2015-12-01

Food security will be challenged over the upcoming decades due to increased food demand, natural resource degradation, and climate change. In order to identify potential solutions to increase food security in the face of these changes, tools that can rapidly and accurately assess farm productivity are needed. With this aim, we have developed generalizable methods to map crop yields at the field scale using a combination of satellite imagery and crop models, and implement this approach within Google Earth Engine. We use these methods to examine wheat yield trends in Northern India, which provides over 15% of the global wheat supply and where over 80% of farmers rely on wheat as a staple food source. In addition, we identify the extent to which farmers are shifting sow date in response to heat stress, and how well shifting sow date reduces the negative impacts of heat stress on yield. To identify local-level decision-making, we map wheat sow date and yield at a high spatial resolution (30 m) using Landsat satellite imagery from 1980 to the present. This unique dataset allows us to examine sow date decisions at the field scale over 30 years, and by relating these decisions to weather experienced over the same time period, we can identify how farmers learn and adapt cropping decisions based on weather through time.

Combined effects of agrochemicals and ecosystem services on crop yield across Europe.

PubMed

Gagic, Vesna; Kleijn, David; Báldi, András; Boros, Gergely; Jørgensen, Helene Bracht; Elek, Zoltán; Garratt, Michael P D; de Groot, G Arjen; Hedlund, Katarina; Kovács-Hostyánszki, Anikó; Marini, Lorenzo; Martin, Emily; Pevere, Ines; Potts, Simon G; Redlich, Sarah; Senapathi, Deepa; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf; Świtek, Stanislaw; Smith, Henrik G; Takács, Viktória; Tryjanowski, Piotr; van der Putten, Wim H; van Gils, Stijn; Bommarco, Riccardo

2017-11-01

Simultaneously enhancing ecosystem services provided by biodiversity below and above ground is recommended to reduce dependence on chemical pesticides and mineral fertilisers in agriculture. However, consequences for crop yield have been poorly evaluated. Above ground, increased landscape complexity is assumed to enhance biological pest control, whereas below ground, soil organic carbon is a proxy for several yield-supporting services. In a field experiment replicated in 114 fields across Europe, we found that fertilisation had the strongest positive effect on yield, but hindered simultaneous harnessing of below- and above-ground ecosystem services. We furthermore show that enhancing natural enemies and pest control through increasing landscape complexity can prove disappointing in fields with low soil services or in intensively cropped regions. Thus, understanding ecological interdependences between land use, ecosystem services and yield is necessary to promote more environmentally friendly farming by identifying situations where ecosystem services are maximised and agrochemical inputs can be reduced. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Roguing with replacement in perennial crops: conditions for successful disease management.

PubMed

Sisterson, Mark S; Stenger, Drake C

2013-02-01

Replacement of diseased plants with healthy plants is commonly used to manage spread of plant pathogens in perennial cropping systems. This strategy has two potential benefits. First, removing infected plants may slow pathogen spread by eliminating inoculum sources. Second, replacing infected plants with uninfected plants may offset yield losses due to disease. The extent to which these benefits are realized depends on multiple factors. In this study, sensitivity analyses of two spatially explicit simulation models were used to evaluate how assumptions concerning implementation of a plant replacement program and pathogen spread interact to affect disease suppression. In conjunction, effects of assumptions concerning yield loss associated with disease and rates of plant maturity on yields were simultaneously evaluated. The first model was used to evaluate effects of plant replacement on pathogen spread and yield on a single farm, consisting of a perennial crop monoculture. The second model evaluated effects of plant replacement on pathogen spread and yield in a 100 farm crop growing region, with all farms maintaining a monoculture of the same perennial crop. Results indicated that efficient replacement of infected plants combined with a high degree of compliance among farms effectively slowed pathogen spread, resulting in replacement of few plants and high yields. In contrast, inefficient replacement of infected plants or limited compliance among farms failed to slow pathogen spread, resulting in replacement of large numbers of plants (on farms practicing replacement) with little yield benefit. Replacement of infected plants always increased yields relative to simulations without plant replacement provided that infected plants produced no useable yield. However, if infected plants produced useable yields, inefficient removal of infected plants resulted in lower yields relative to simulations without plant replacement for perennial crops with long maturation periods in some cases.

Increased phytochrome B alleviates density effects on tuber yield of field potato crops.

PubMed

Boccalandro, Hernán E; Ploschuk, Edmundo L; Yanovsky, Marcelo J; Sánchez, Rodolfo A; Gatz, Christiane; Casal, Jorge J

2003-12-01

The possibility that reduced photomorphogenic responses could increase field crop yield has been suggested often, but experimental support is still lacking. Here, we report that ectopic expression of the Arabidopsis PHYB (phytochrome B) gene, a photoreceptor involved in detecting red to far-red light ratio associated with plant density, can increase tuber yield in field-grown transgenic potato (Solanum tuberosum) crops. Surprisingly, this effect was larger at very high densities, despite the intense reduction in the red to far-red light ratios and the concomitant narrowed differences in active phytochrome B levels between wild type and transgenics at these densities. Increased PHYB expression not only altered the ability of plants to respond to light signals, but they also modified the light environment itself. This combination resulted in larger effects of enhanced PHYB expression on tuber number and crop photosynthesis at high planting densities. The PHYB transgenics showed higher maximum photosynthesis in leaves of all strata of the canopy, and this effect was largely due to increased leaf stomatal conductance. We propose that enhanced PHYB expression could be used in breeding programs to shift optimum planting densities to higher levels.

Uncertainty of Wheat Water Use: Simulated Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cammarano, Davide; Roetter, Reimund P.; Asseng, Senthold; Ewert, Frank; Wallach, Daniel; Martre, Pierre; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Ruane, Alex C.;

Targeting carbon for crop yield and drought resilience.

PubMed

Griffiths, Cara A; Paul, Matthew J

2017-11-01

Current methods of crop improvement are not keeping pace with projected increases in population growth. Breeding, focused around key traits of stem height and disease resistance, delivered the step-change yield improvements of the green revolution of the 1960s. However, subsequently, yield increases through conventional breeding have been below the projected requirement of 2.4% per year required by 2050. Genetic modification (GM) mainly for herbicide tolerance and insect resistance has been transformational, akin to a second green revolution, although GM has yet to make major inroads into intrinsic yield processes themselves. Drought imposes the major restriction on crop yields globally but, as yet, has not benefited substantially from genetic improvement and still presents a major challenge to agriculture. Much still has to be learnt about the complex process of how drought limits yield and what should be targeted. Mechanisms of drought adaptation from the natural environment cannot be taken into crops without significant modification for the agricultural environment because mechanisms of drought tolerance are often in contrast with mechanisms of high productivity required in agriculture. However, through convergence of fundamental and translational science, it would appear that a mechanism of sucrose allocation in crops can be modified for both productivity and resilience to drought and other stresses. Recent publications show how this mechanism can be targeted by GM, natural variation and a new chemical approach. Here, with an emphasis on drought, we highlight how understanding fundamental science about how crops grow, develop and what limits their growth and yield can be combined with targeted genetic selection and pioneering chemical intervention technology for transformational yield improvements. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Global agricultural intensification during climate change: a role for genomics.

PubMed

Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; Cseke, Leland J; Dempewolf, Hannes; De Pace, Ciro; Edwards, David; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony E; Henry, Robert; Hori, Kiyosumi; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike; Lightfoot, David; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Yano, Masahiro

2016-04-01

Agriculture is now facing the 'perfect storm' of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic-assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change. © 2015 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Water-saving mechanisms of intercropping system in improving cropland water use efficiency].

PubMed

Zhang, Feng-Yun; Wu, Pu-Te; Zhao, Xi-Ning; Cheng, Xue-Feng

2012-05-01

Based on the multi-disciplinary researches, and in terms of the transformation efficiency of surface water to soil water, availability of cropland soil water, crop canopy structure, total irrigation volume needed on a given area, and crop yield, this paper discussed the water-saving mechanisms of intercropping system in improving cropland water use efficiency. Intercropping system could promote the full use of cropland water by plant roots, increase the water storage in root zone, reduce the inter-row evaporation and control excessive transpiration, and create a special microclimate advantageous to the plant growth and development. In addition, intercropping system could optimize source-sink relationship, provide a sound foundation for intensively utilizing resources temporally and spatially, and increase the crop yield per unit area greatly without increase of water consumption, so as to promote the crop water use efficiency effectively.

Expression of the Arabidopsis thaliana BBX32 gene in soybean increases grain yield.

PubMed

Preuss, Sasha B; Meister, Robert; Xu, Qingzhang; Urwin, Carl P; Tripodi, Federico A; Screen, Steven E; Anil, Veena S; Zhu, Shuquan; Morrell, James A; Liu, Grace; Ratcliffe, Oliver J; Reuber, T Lynne; Khanna, Rajnish; Goldman, Barry S; Bell, Erin; Ziegler, Todd E; McClerren, Amanda L; Ruff, Thomas G; Petracek, Marie E

2012-01-01

Crop yield is a highly complex quantitative trait. Historically, successful breeding for improved grain yield has led to crop plants with improved source capacity, altered plant architecture, and increased resistance to abiotic and biotic stresses. To date, transgenic approaches towards improving crop grain yield have primarily focused on protecting plants from herbicide, insects, or disease. In contrast, we have focused on identifying genes that, when expressed in soybean, improve the intrinsic ability of the plant to yield more. Through the large scale screening of candidate genes in transgenic soybean, we identified an Arabidopsis thaliana B-box domain gene (AtBBX32) that significantly increases soybean grain yield year after year in multiple transgenic events in multi-location field trials. In order to understand the underlying physiological changes that are associated with increased yield in transgenic soybean, we examined phenotypic differences in two AtBBX32-expressing lines and found increases in plant height and node, flower, pod, and seed number. We propose that these phenotypic changes are likely the result of changes in the timing of reproductive development in transgenic soybean that lead to the increased duration of the pod and seed development period. Consistent with the role of BBX32 in A. thaliana in regulating light signaling, we show that the constitutive expression of AtBBX32 in soybean alters the abundance of a subset of gene transcripts in the early morning hours. In particular, AtBBX32 alters transcript levels of the soybean clock genes GmTOC1 and LHY-CCA1-like2 (GmLCL2). We propose that through the expression of AtBBX32 and modulation of the abundance of circadian clock genes during the transition from dark to light, the timing of critical phases of reproductive development are altered. These findings demonstrate a specific role for AtBBX32 in modulating soybean development, and demonstrate the validity of expressing single genes in crops to deliver increased agricultural productivity.

Understanding the relationship between the variability in agrometeorological indices and adaptation practices across the Canadian Prairies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chipanshi, A.; Qi, D.; Zhang, Y.; Cherneski, P.

2017-12-01

In an attempt to understand how agriculture will adapt to the changing and variable climate, crop based agrometeorological indices including the Effective Growing Degree Days (EGDDs), Growing Season Length (GSL), Heat waves, Water Demand (Precipitation - Evapotranspiration) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were analyzed in terms of frequency, duration and trend over a 63-year timeframe (1950 to 2012) from the Canadian Prairies and related to crop production. The heat based indices (EGDD, GSL and Heat waves) increased over the analysis period due to an upward increase in the observed mean temperature. The change was most noticeable in the northern portion of the study area where agriculture is limited by insufficient heat units under the present climate. Heat waves became more frequent in the southern parts of the study area (there were more days above the 30oC threshold). Water availability as assessed from water demand (P-PE) and SPEI trended downward especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan. In spite of the increased severity and frequency in water deficits, there was a noticeable reduction in the variability of crop yield over time. This was attributed to the increased adaptive capacity that has been gained through the use of improved seed hybrids, fertilizer, the use of fungicides and adoption of best management practices such as zero till and direct seeding. After crop yields were de-trended to remove effects of technology, the cumulative precipitation during the growing season explained the majority of the variance in crop yield. This initial analysis has set the stage for analyzing the characteristics of agrometeorological indices under climate change scenarios and how accumulated precipitation during the growing season will affect crop yield and production.

Impacts of climate variability and change on crop yield in sub-Sahara Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Chen, G.; Xu, R.; Zhang, B.; Lou, Y.

2017-12-01

Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate change and climate extremes on Africa's food security. The impact of climate change on Africa's agriculture is likely to be severe compared to other continents due to high rain-fed agricultural dependence, and limited ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In recent decades, warming in Africa is more pronounced and faster than the global average and this trend is likely to continue in the future. However, quantitative assessment on impacts of climate extremes and climate change on crop yield has not been well investigated yet. By using an improved agricultural module of the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed impacts of historical climate variability and future climate change on food crop yield across the sub-Sahara Africa during1980-2016 and the rest of the 21st century (2017-2099). Our simulated results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Droughts have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions of Sub-Sahara Africa. Future projections with DLEM-AG2 show that food crop production in Sub-Sahara Africa would be favored with limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.50 C.

Crops in silico: A community wide multi-scale computational modeling framework of plant canopies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Christensen, A.; Borkiewic, K.; Yiwen, X.; Ellis, A.; Panneerselvam, B.; Kannan, K.; Shrivastava, S.; Cox, D.; Hart, J.; Marshall-Colon, A.; Long, S.

2016-12-01

Current crop models predict a looming gap between supply and demand for primary foodstuffs over the next 100 years. While significant yield increases were achieved in major food crops during the early years of the green revolution, the current rates of yield increases are insufficient to meet future projected food demand. Furthermore, with projected reduction in arable land, decrease in water availability, and increasing impacts of climate change on future food production, innovative technologies are required to sustainably improve crop yield. To meet these challenges, we are developing Crops in silico (Cis), a biologically informed, multi-scale, computational modeling framework that can facilitate whole plant simulations of crop systems. The Cis framework is capable of linking models of gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, growth, and development in order to investigate crop response to different climate scenarios and resource constraints. This modeling framework will provide the mechanistic details to generate testable hypotheses toward accelerating directed breeding and engineering efforts to increase future food security. A primary objective for building such a framework is to create synergy among an inter-connected community of biologists and modelers to create a realistic virtual plant. This framework advantageously casts the detailed mechanistic understanding of individual plant processes across various scales in a common scalable framework that makes use of current advances in high performance and parallel computing. We are currently designing a user friendly interface that will make this tool equally accessible to biologists and computer scientists. Critically, this framework will provide the community with much needed tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the emergent implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment.

Electrical resistivity tomography to delineate greenhouse soil variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, R.; Amato, M.; Bitella, G.; Bochicchio, R.

2013-03-01

Appropriate management of soil spatial variability is an important tool for optimizing farming inputs, with the result of yield increase and reduction of the environmental impact in field crops. Under greenhouses, several factors such as non-uniform irrigation and localized soil compaction can severely affect yield and quality. Additionally, if soil spatial variability is not taken into account, yield deficiencies are often compensated by extra-volumes of crop inputs; as a result, over-irrigation and overfertilization in some parts of the field may occur. Technology for spatially sound management of greenhouse crops is therefore needed to increase yield and quality and to address sustainability. In this experiment, 2D-electrical resistivity tomography was used as an exploratory tool to characterize greenhouse soil variability and its relations to wild rocket yield. Soil resistivity well matched biomass variation (R2=0.70), and was linked to differences in soil bulk density (R2=0.90), and clay content (R2=0.77). Electrical resistivity tomography shows a great potential in horticulture where there is a growing demand of sustainability coupled with the necessity of stabilizing yield and product quality.

Sustainable biochar effects for low carbon crop production: A 5-crop season field experiment on a low fertility soil from Central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.

2014-12-01

Biochar's effects on improving soil fertility, enhancing crop productivity and reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission from croplands had been well addressed in numerous short-term experiments with biochar soil amendment (BSA) mostly in a single crop season / cropping year. However, the persistence of these effects, after a single biochar application, has not yet been well known due to limited long-term field studies so far. Large scale BSA in agriculture is often commented on the high cost due to large amount of biochar in a single application. Here, we try to show the persistence of biochar effects on soil fertility and crop productivity improvement as well as GHGs emission reduction, using data from a field experiment with BSA for 5 crop seasons in central North China. A single amendment of biochar was performed at rates of 0 (C0), 20 (C20) and 40 t ha-1 (C40) before sowing of the first crop season. Emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O were monitored with static closed chamber method throughout the crop growing season for the 1st, 2nd and 5th cropping. Crop yield was measured and topsoil samples were collected at harvest of each crop season. BSA altered most of the soil physic-chemical properties with a significant increase over control in soil organic carbon (SOC) and available potassium (K) content. The increase in SOC and available K was consistent over the 5 crop seasons after BSA. Despite a significant yield increase in the first maize season, enhancement of crop yield was not consistent over crop seasons without corresponding to the changes in soil nutrient availability. BSA did not change seasonal total CO2 efflux but greatly reduced N2O emissions throughout the five seasons. This supported a stable nature of biochar carbon in soil, which played a consistent role in reducing N2O emission, which showed inter-annual variation with changes in temperature and soil moisture conditions. The biochar effect was much more consistent under C40 than under C20 and with GHGs emission than with soil property and crop yield. Thus, our study suggested that biochar amended in dry land could sustain a low carbon production both of maize and wheat in terms of its efficient carbon sequestration, lower GHGs emission intensity and soil improvement over 5 crop seasons after a single amendment.

Tillage and cover cropping effects on soil properties and crop production in Illinois

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cover crops (CCs) have been heralded for their potential to improve soil properties, retain nutrients in the field, and increase subsequent crop yields yet support for these claims within the state of Illinois remains limited. We assessed the effects of integrating five sets of CCs into a corn-soybe...

Environmental impact assessment of double- and relay-cropping with winter camelina in the northern Great Plains, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent findings indicate that double- or relay-cropping winter camelina (Camelina sativa L. Crantz.) with feed or food crops can increase yield per area, improve energy balance, and provide several ecosystem services. Double-cropping can help balance food and energy production. The objective of this...

The importance of long‐term experiments in agriculture: their management to ensure continued crop production and soil fertility; the Rothamsted experience

PubMed Central

Johnston, A. E.

2018-01-01

Summary Long‐term field experiments that test a range of treatments and are intended to assess the sustainability of crop production, and thus food security, must be managed actively to identify any treatment that is failing to maintain or increase yields. Once identified, carefully considered changes can be made to the treatment or management, and if they are successful yields will change. If suitable changes cannot be made to an experiment to ensure its continued relevance to sustainable crop production, then it should be stopped. Long‐term experiments have many other uses. They provide a field resource and samples for research on plant and soil processes and properties, especially those properties where change occurs slowly and affects soil fertility. Archived samples of all inputs and outputs are an invaluable source of material for future research, and data from current and archived samples can be used to develop models to describe soil and plant processes. Such changes and uses in the Rothamsted experiments are described, and demonstrate that with the appropriate crop, soil and management, acceptable yields can be maintained for many years, with either organic manure or inorganic fertilizers. Highlights Long‐term experiments demonstrate sustainability and increases in crop yield when managed to optimize soil fertility.Shifting individual response curves into coincidence increases understanding of the factors involved.Changes in inorganic and organic pollutants in archived crop and soil samples are related to inputs over time.Models describing soil processes are developed from current and archived soil data. PMID:29527119

Weather-based forecasts of California crop yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lobell, D B; Cahill, K N; Field, C B

2005-09-26

Crop yield forecasts provide useful information to a range of users. Yields for several crops in California are currently forecast based on field surveys and farmer interviews, while for many crops official forecasts do not exist. As broad-scale crop yields are largely dependent on weather, measurements from existing meteorological stations have the potential to provide a reliable, timely, and cost-effective means to anticipate crop yields. We developed weather-based models of state-wide yields for 12 major California crops (wine grapes, lettuce, almonds, strawberries, table grapes, hay, oranges, cotton, tomatoes, walnuts, avocados, and pistachios), and tested their accuracy using cross-validation over themore » 1980-2003 period. Many crops were forecast with high accuracy, as judged by the percent of yield variation explained by the forecast, the number of yields with correctly predicted direction of yield change, or the number of yields with correctly predicted extreme yields. The most successfully modeled crop was almonds, with 81% of yield variance captured by the forecast. Predictions for most crops relied on weather measurements well before harvest time, allowing for lead times that were longer than existing procedures in many cases.« less

Water and Land Limitations to Future Agricultural Production in the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, J. A. M.; Wimmer, F.; Schaldach, R.

2015-12-01

Countries in the Middle East use a large fraction of their scarce water resources to produce cash crops, such as fruit and vegetables, for international markets. At the same time, these countries import large amounts of staple crops, such as cereals, required to meet the nutritional demand of their populations. This makes food security in the Middle East heavily dependent on world market prices for staple crops. Under these preconditions, increasing food demand due to population growth, urban expansion on fertile farmlands, and detrimental effects of a changing climate on the production of agricultural commodities present major challenges to countries in the Middle East that try to improve food security by increasing their self-sufficiency rate of staple crops.We applied the spatio-temporal land-use change model LandSHIFT.JR to simulate how an expansion of urban areas may affect the production of agricultural commodities in Jordan. We furthermore evaluated how climate change and changes in socio-economic conditions may influence crop production. The focus of our analysis was on potential future irrigated and rainfed production (crop yield and area demand) of fruit, vegetables, and cereals. Our simulation results show that the expansion of urban areas and the resulting displacement of agricultural areas does result in a slight decrease in crop yields. This leads to almost no additional irrigation water requirements due to the relocation of agricultural areas, i.e. there is the same amount of "crop per drop". However, taking into account projected changes in socio-economic conditions and climate conditions, a large volume of water would be required for cereal production in order to safeguard current self-sufficiency rates for staple crops. Irrigation water requirements are expected to double until 2025 and to triple until 2050. Irrigated crop yields are projected to decrease by about 25%, whereas there is no decrease in rainfed crop yields to be expected.

The Effects of Cattle Manure and Garlic Rotation on Soil under Continuous Cropping of Watermelon (Citrullus lanatus L.)

PubMed Central

Liu, Changming; Wang, Yongqi; Ma, Jianxiang; Zhang, Yong; Li, Hao; Zhang, Xian

2016-01-01

Continuous cropping of watermelon (Citrullus lanatus L.) can lead to reduced yield and quality. We aimed to determine the effects of cattle manure addition and rotation with green garlic to improve yield and reduce disease incidence in watermelon and to examine the effects on the biological and chemical characteristics of the soil. Field experiments were performed during 2012–2014 on land previously under two years of continuous watermelon cropping in northwest China. We examined three treatment combinations: watermelon and garlic rotation, cattle manure application before watermelon planting, and combined cattle manure addition and crop rotation. Watermelon monoculture was retained as a control. Watermelon yield was significantly higher and disease incidence was lower in the treatments than the control. The populations of soil bacteria and actinomycetes and the bacteria/fungi ratio increased significantly and soil enzyme activities were generally enhanced under treatments. Available nutrients and soil organic matter contents were much higher under experimental treatments than the control. Results suggest both cattle manure application and garlic rotation can ameliorate the negative effects of continuous cropping. The combined treatment of cattle manure addition and green garlic rotation was optimal to increase yield, reduce disease incidence and enhance soil quality. PMID:27258145

Long-Term Monitoring of Rainfed Wheat Yield and Soil Water at the Loess Plateau Reveals Low Water Use Efficiency

PubMed Central

Qin, Wei; Chi, Baoliang; Oenema, Oene

2013-01-01

Increasing crop yield and water use efficiency (WUE) in dryland farming requires a quantitative understanding of relationships between crop yield and the water balance over many years. Here, we report on a long-term dryland monitoring site at the Loess Plateau, Shanxi, China, where winter wheat was grown for 30 consecutive years and soil water content (0–200 cm) was measured every 10 days. The monitoring data were used to calibrate the AquaCrop model and then to analyse the components of the water balance. There was a strong positive relationship between total available water and mean cereal yield. However, only one-third of the available water was actually used by the winter wheat for crop transpiration. The remaining two-thirds were lost by soil evaporation, of which 40 and 60% was lost during the growing and fallow seasons, respectively. Wheat yields ranged from 0.6 to 3.9 ton/ha and WUE from 0.3 to 0.9 kg/m3. Results of model experiments suggest that minimizing soil evaporation via straw mulch or plastic film covers could potentially double wheat yields and WUE. We conclude that the relatively low wheat yields and low WUE were mainly related to (i) limited rainfall, (ii) low soil water storage during fallow season due to large soil evaporation, and (iii) poor synchronisation of the wheat growing season to the rain season. The model experiments suggest significant potential for increased yields and WUE. PMID:24302987

Climatic Extremes and Food Grain Production in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A, A.; Mishra, V.

2015-12-01

Climate change is likely to affect food and water security in India. India has witnessed tremendous growth in its food production after the green revolution. However, during the recent decades the food grain yields were significantly affected by the extreme climate and weather events. Air temperature and associated extreme events (number of hot days and hot nights, heat waves) increased significantly during the last 50 years in the majority of India. More remarkably, a substantial increase in mean and extreme temperatures was observed during the winter season in India. On the other hand, India witnessed extreme flood and drought events that have become frequent during the past few decades. Extreme rainfall during the non-monsoon season adversely affected the food grain yields and results in tremendous losses in several parts of the country. Here we evaluate the changes in hydroclimatic extremes and its linkage with the food grain production in India. We use observed food grain yield data for the period of 1980-2012 at district level. We understand the linkages between food grain yield and crop phenology obtained from the high resolution leaf area index and NDVI datasets from satellites. We used long-term observed data of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures to evaluate changes in the extreme events. We use statistical models to develop relationships between crop yields, mean and extreme temperatures for various crops to understand the sensitivity of these crops towards changing climatic conditions. We find that some of the major crop types and predominant crop growing areas have shown a significant sensitivity towards changes in extreme climatic conditions in India.

Genetic and management approaches to boost UK wheat yields by ameliorating water deficits.

PubMed

Dodd, Ian C; Whalley, W R; Ober, Eric S; Parry, M A J

2011-11-01

Faced with the challenge of increasing global food production, there is the need to exploit all approaches to increasing crop yields. A major obstacle to boosting yields of wheat (an important staple in many parts of the world) is the availability and efficient use of water, since there is increasing stress on water resources used for agriculture globally, and also in parts of the UK. Improved soil and crop management and the development of new genotypes may increase wheat yields when water is limiting. Technical and scientific issues concerning management options such as irrigation and the use of growth-promoting rhizobacteria are explored, since these may allow the more efficient use of irrigation. Fundamental understanding of how crops sense and respond to multiple abiotic stresses can help improve the effective use of irrigation water. Experiments are needed to test the hypothesis that modifying wheat root system architecture (by increasing root proliferation deep in the soil profile) will allow greater soil water extraction thereby benefiting productivity and yield stability. Furthermore, better knowledge of plant and soil interactions and how below-ground and above-ground processes communicate within the plant can help identify traits and ultimately genes (or alleles) that will define genotypes that yield better under dry conditions. Developing new genotypes will take time and, therefore, these challenges need to be addressed now.

Annual Crop-Yield Variation, Child Survival, and Nutrition Among Subsistence Farmers in Burkina Faso.

PubMed

Belesova, Kristine; Gasparrini, Antonio; Sié, Ali; Sauerborn, Rainer; Wilkinson, Paul

2018-02-01

Whether year-to-year variation in crop yields affects the nutrition, health, and survival of subsistence-farming populations is relevant to the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change. However, the empirical evidence is limited. We examined the associations of child survival with interannual variation in food crop yield and middle-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in a subsistence-farming population of rural Burkina Faso. The study was of 44,616 children aged <5 years included in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, 1992-2012, whose survival was analyzed in relation to the food crop yield in the year of birth (which ranged from 65% to 120% of the period average) and, for a subset of 16,698 children, to MUAC, using shared-frailty Cox proportional hazards models. Survival was appreciably worse in children born in years with low yield (full-adjustment hazard ratio = 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.20) for a 90th- to 10th-centile decrease in annual crop yield) and in children with small MUAC (hazard ratio = 2.72 (95% confidence interval: 2.15, 3.44) for a 90th- to 10th-centile decrease in MUAC). These results suggest an adverse impact of variations in crop yields, which could increase under climate change. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981-2009.

PubMed

Xiao, Dengpan; Tao, Fulu

2016-07-01

The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize (Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981-2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981-2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9-40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3-8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981-2009 reduced maize yield by 15-30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981-2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12-24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3-9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9-3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46-67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield.

Contributions of cultivar shift, management practice and climate change to maize yield in North China Plain in 1981-2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Dengpan; Tao, Fulu

2016-07-01

The impact of climate change on crop yield is compounded by cultivar shifts and agronomic management practices. To determine the relative contributions of climate change, cultivar shift, and management practice to changes in maize ( Zea mays L.) yield in the past three decades, detailed field data for 1981-2009 from four representative experimental stations in North China Plain (NCP) were analyzed via model simulation. The four representative experimental stations are geographically and climatologically different, represent the typical cropping system in the study area, and have more complete weather/crop records for the period of 1981-2009. The results showed that while the shift from traditional to modern cultivar increased yield by 23.9-40.3 %, new fertilizer management increased yield by 3.3-8.6 %. However, the trends in climate variables for 1981-2009 reduced maize yield by 15-30 % in the study area. Among the main climate variables, solar radiation had the largest effect on maize yield, followed by temperature and then precipitation. While a significant decline in solar radiation in 1981-2009 (maybe due to air pollution) reduced yield by 12-24 %, a significant increase in temperature reduced yield by 3-9 %. In contrast, a non-significant increase in precipitation during the maize growth period increased yield by 0.9-3 % at three of the four investigated stations. However, a decline in precipitation reduced yield by 3 % in the remaining station. The study revealed that although the shift from traditional to modern cultivars and agronomic management practices contributed most to the increase in maize yield, the negative impact of climate change was large enough to offset 46-67 % of the trend in the observed yields in the past three decades in NCP. The reduction in solar radiation, especially in the most critical period of maize growth, limited the process of photosynthesis and thereby further reduced maize yield.

The Potential of Five Winter-grown Crops to Reduce Root-knot Nematode Damage and Increase Yield of Tomato

PubMed Central

López-Pérez, Jose Antonio; Roubtsova, Tatiana; de Cara García, Miguel

2010-01-01

Broccoli (Brassica oleracea), carrot (Daucus carota), marigold (Tagetes patula), nematode-resistant tomato (Solanum lycopersicum), and strawberry (Fragaria ananassa) were grown for three years during the winter in a root-knot nematode (Meloidogyne incognita) infested field in Southern California. Each year in the spring, the tops of all crops were shredded and incorporated in the soil. Amendment with poultry litter was included as a sub-treatment. The soil was then covered with clear plastic for six weeks and M. incognita-susceptible tomato was grown during the summer season. Plastic tarping raised the average soil temperature at 13 cm depth by 7°C.The different winter-grown crops or the poultry litter did not affect M. incognita soil population levels. However, root galling on summer tomato was reduced by 36%, and tomato yields increased by 19% after incorporating broccoli compared to the fallow control. This crop also produced the highest amount of biomass of the five winter-grown crops. Over the three-year trial period, poultry litter increased tomato yields, but did not affect root galling caused by M. incognita. We conclude that cultivation followed by soil incorporation of broccoli reduced M. incognita damage to tomato. This effect is possibly due to delaying or preventing a portion of the nematodes to reach the host roots. We also observed that M. incognita populations did not increase under a host crop during the cool season when soil temperatures remained low (< 18°C). PMID:22736848

Increasing Efficiency of Water Use in Agriculture through Management of Soil Water Repellency to Optimize Soil and Water Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Demie; Kostka, Stan; McMillan, Mica; Gadd, Nick

2010-05-01

Water's ability to infiltrate and disperse in soils, and soil's ability to receive, transport, retain, filter and release water are important factors in the efficient use of water in agriculture. Deteriorating soil conditions, including development of soil water repellency, negatively impact hydrological processes and, consequently, the efficiency of rainfall and irrigation. Soil water repellency is increasingly being identified in diverse soils and cropping systems. Recently research has been conducted on the use of novel soil surfactants (co-formulations of alkyl polyglycoside and block copolymer surfactants) to avoid or overcome soil water repellency and enhance water distribution in soils. Results indicate that this is an effective and affordable approach to maintaining or restoring soil and water productivity in irrigated cropping systems. Results from studies conducted in Australia and the United States to determine how this technology modifies soil hydrological behavior and crop yields will be presented. A range of soils and various crops, including potatoes, corn, apples and grapes, were included. Several rates were compared to controls for effect on soil moisture levels, soil water distribution, and crop yield. An economic analysis was also conducted in some trials. Treatments improved rootzone water status, significantly increased crop yield and quality, and in some cases allowed significant reductions in water requirements. Where assessed, a positive economic return was generated. This technology holds promise as a strategy for increasing efficiency of water use in agriculture.

Modelling climate change impact: A case of bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe; Chibarabada, Tendai Polite; Chimonyo, Vimbayi Grace Petrova; Modi, Albert Thembinkosi

2018-06-01

Climate change projections for southern Africa indicate low and erratic rainfall as well as increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes such as drought. The 2015/16 drought devastated large parts of southern Africa and highlighted the need for drought tolerant crops. Bambara groundnut is an African indigenous crop, commonly cultivated in southern Africa, with a higher potential for drought tolerance compared to other staple legumes. AquaCrop model was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on yield, water use (ET) and water productivity (WP) of bambara groundnut using climate change data representative of the past (1961-1991), present (1995-2025), mid-century (2030-2060) and late century (2065-2095) obtained from five global circulation models (GCMs). The carbon dioxide (CO2) file selected was for the A2 scenario. The model was run at a sub-catchment level. Model simulations showed that yield and WP of bambara groundnut will increase over time. The mean values of yield at the different time scales across the GCMs showed that yield of bambara groundnut increased by ∼9% from the past to the present, will increase by ∼15% from the present to mid-century and will increase by 6% from mid-to late-century. The simulated results of ET showed seasonal ranges of 703-796 mm. Of this, 45% was lost to soil evaporation, suggesting the need for developing bambara groundnut varieties with faster establishment and high canopy cover. Model simulations showed an increase in WP by ∼13% from the past to present and ∼15% from the present to mid-century and ∼11% from mid-century to late century. While the results of these simulations are preliminary, they confirm the view that bambara groundnut is a potential future crop suitable for cultivation in marginal agricultural production areas. Future research should focus on crop improvement to improve current yield of bambara groundnut.

Effect of Mixed Systems on Crop Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senturklu, Songul; Landblom, Douglas; Cihacek, Larry; Brevik, Eric

2017-04-01

The goals of this non-irrigated research has been to determine the effect of mixed systems integration on crop, soil, and beef cattle production in the northern Great Plains region of the United States. Over a 5-year period, growing spring wheat (HRSW-C) continuously year after year was compared to a 5-year crop rotation that included spring wheat (HRSW-R), cover crop (dual crop consisting of winter triticale/hairy vetch seeded in the fall and harvested for hay followed by a 7-species cover crop that was seeded in June after hay harvest), forage corn, field pea/barley, and sunflower. Control 5-year HRSW yield was 2690 kg/ha compared to 2757 kg/ha for HRSW grown in rotation. Available soil nitrogen (N) is often the most important limitation for crop production. Expensive fertilizer inputs were reduced in this study due to the mixed system's complementarity in which the rotation system that included beef cattle grazing sustained N availability and increased nutrient cycling, which had a positive effect on all crops grown in the rotation. Growing HRSW continuously requires less intensive management and in this research was 14.5% less profitable. Whereas, when crop management increased and complementing crops were grown in rotation to produce crops and provide feed for grazing livestock, soil nutrient cycling improved. Increased nutrient cycling increased crop rotation yields and yearling beef cattle steers that grazing annual forages in the rotation gain more body weight than similar steers grazing NGP native range. Results of this long-term research will be presented in a PICO format for participant discussion.

An assessment of yield gains under climate change due to genetic modification of pearl millet.

PubMed

Singh, Piara; Boote, K J; Kadiyala, M D M; Nedumaran, S; Gupta, S K; Srinivas, K; Bantilan, M C S

2017-12-01

Developing cultivars with traits that can enhance and sustain productivity under climate change will be an important climate smart adaptation option. The modified CSM-CERES-Pearl millet model was used to assess yield gains by modifying plant traits determining crop maturity duration, potential yield and tolerance to drought and heat in pearl millet cultivars grown at six locations in arid (Hisar, Jodhpur, Bikaner) and semi-arid (Jaipur, Aurangabad and Bijapur) tropical India and two locations in semi-arid tropical West Africa (Sadore in Niamey and Cinzana in Mali). In all the study locations the yields decreased when crop maturity duration was decreased by 10% both in current and future climate conditions; however, 10% increase in crop maturity significantly (p<0.05) increased yields at Aurangabad and Bijapur, but not at other locations. Increasing yield potential traits by 10% increased yields under both the climate situations in India and West Africa. Drought tolerance imparted the lowest yield gain at Aurangabad (6%), the highest at Sadore (30%) and intermediate at the other locations under current climate. Under climate change the contribution of drought tolerance to the yield of cultivars either increased or decreased depending upon changes in rainfall of the locations. Yield benefits of heat tolerance substantially increased under climate change at most locations, having the greatest effects at Bikaner (17%) in India and Sadore (13%) in West Africa. Aurangabad and Bijapur locations had no yield advantage from heat tolerance due to their low temperature regimes. Thus drought and heat tolerance in pearl millet increased yields under climate change in both the arid and semi-arid tropical climates with greater benefit in relatively hotter environments. This study will assists the plant breeders in evaluating new promising plant traits of pearl millet for adapting to climate change at the selected locations and other similar environments. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of organic waste compost on the crop productivity and soil quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astover, Alar; Toomsoo, Avo; Teesalu, Triin; Rossner, Helis; Kriipsalu, Mait

2017-04-01

Sustainable use of fertilizers is important for maintaining balanced nutrient cycling in agro-ecosystem, soil quality and crop productivity. Considering the high costs and energy demand of mineral fertilizers, it is increasingly important to use more alternative nutrient sources such composts. Nutrient release from organic fertilizers is slower compared to mineral fertilizers and thus their effects need to be evaluated over longer time periods. There is lack of knowledge on the residual effects of organic fertilizers, especially in Nordic climatic conditions. Residual effect of organic fertilizers is in most cases studied with animal manures, but even rare are studies with non-manure based composts. The aim of current study was to evaluate first year direct effect and residual effect of waste compost on the crop productivity and selected soil parameters. Crop rotation field experiment to reveal direct effect of compost to the spring barley yield and residual effect to potato and spring wheat yield was conducted in Tartu, Estonia on pseodopodzolic soil with low humus concentration (<2%). Compost was produced from source separated food and green waste, and category III animal by-products; and composted in aerated covered static piles for 6 weeks and after that matured in open windows for minimum six months. Compost was applied to soil with ploughing in autumn before spring barley growing season (in years 2012-2014). Compost was applied in three norms according to total N (200, 275 and 350 kg/ha). In addition there was unfertilized control plot and all experimental variants were in three replication with plot size 50 m2. First year effect of compost increased barley yield by 40-50%, first year residual effect resulted in increase of potato yield by 19-30% and second year residual effect to wheat yield was in range from 8 to 17%. First year residual effect to the potato yield was significant (F=8.9; p<0.001). All compost norms resulted significant yield increase compared to the unfertilized control plot. In the case lowest compost rate (200 kg N ha-1) yield increase was 19% (Figure 1). Second year residual effect of compost use to spring wheat grain yield was already smaller (8-17%) and statistically non-significant (F=3.2; p=0.07). Residual effect of compost is decreasing year-by-year as expected. In third growing season after application the effect is not significant but it still important to consider, especially if we take in account cumulative yield increase trough all crop rotation. Additionally changes in selected soil parameters (SOC %, pH, PK concentration) will be presented.

Evidence for a weakening strength of temperature-corn yield relation in the United States during 1980–2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong

Temperature is known to be correlated with crop yields, causing reduction of crop yield with climate warming without adaptations or CO2 fertilization effects. The historical temperature-crop yield relation has often been used for informing future changes. This relationship, however, may change over time following alternations in other environmental factors. Results show that the strength of the relationship between the interannual variability of growing season temperature and corn yield (RGST_CY) has declined in the United States between 1980 and 2010 with a loss in the statistical significance. The regression slope which represents the anomalies in corn yield that occur in associationmore » with 1 degree temperature anomaly has decreased significantly from -6.9%/K of the first half period to -2.4%/K~-3.5%/K of the second half period. This implies that projected corn yield reduction will be overestimated by a fact of 2 in a given warming scenario, if the corn-temperature relation is derived from the earlier historical period. Changes in RGST_CY are mainly observed in Midwest Corn Belt and central High Plains, and are well reproduced by 11 process-based crop models. In Midwest rain-fed systems, the decrease of negative temperature effects coincides with an increase in water availability by precipitation. In irrigated areas where water stress is minimized, the decline of beneficial temperature effects is significantly related to the increase in extreme hot days. The results indicate that an extrapolation of historical yield response to temperature may bias the assessment of agriculture vulnerability to climate change. Efforts to reduce climate impacts on agriculture should pay attention not only to climate change, but also to changes in climate-crop yield relations. There are some caveats that should be acknowledged as the analysis is restricted to the changes in the linear relation between growing season mean temperature and corn yield for the specific study period.« less

Evidence for a weakening strength of temperature-corn yield relation in the United States during 1980-2010.

PubMed

Leng, Guoyong

2017-12-15

Temperature is known to be correlated with crop yields, causing reduction of crop yield with climate warming without adaptations or CO 2 fertilization effects. The historical temperature-crop yield relation has often been used for informing future changes. This relationship, however, may change over time following alternations in other environmental factors. Results show that the strength of the relationship between the interannual variability of growing season temperature and corn yield (R GST_CY ) has declined in the United States between 1980 and 2010 with a loss in the statistical significance. The regression slope which represents the anomalies in corn yield that occur in association with 1 degree temperature anomaly has decreased significantly from -6.9%/K of the first half period to -2.4%/K--3.5%/K of the second half period. This implies that projected corn yield reduction will be overestimated by a fact of 2 in a given warming scenario, if the corn-temperature relation is derived from the earlier historical period. Changes in R GST_CY are mainly observed in Midwest Corn Belt and central High Plains, but are partly reproduced by 11 process-based crop models. In Midwest rain-fed systems, the decrease of negative temperature effects coincides with an increase in water availability by precipitation. In irrigated areas where water stress is minimized, the decline of beneficial temperature effects is significantly related to the increase in extreme hot days. The results indicate that an extrapolation of historical yield response to temperature may bias the assessment of agriculture vulnerability to climate change. Efforts to reduce climate impacts on agriculture should pay attention not only to climate change, but also to changes in climate-crop yield relations. There are some caveats that should be acknowledged as the analysis is restricted to the changes in the linear relation between growing season mean temperature and corn yield for the specific study period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of winter cover crops on soil nitrogen availability, corn yield, and nitrate leaching.

PubMed

Kuo, S; Huang, B; Bembenek, R

2001-10-25

Biculture of nonlegumes and legumes could serve as cover crops for increasing main crop yield, while reducing NO3 leaching. This study, conducted from 1994 to 1999, determined the effect of monocultured cereal rye (Secale cereale L.), annual ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum), and hairy vetch (Vicia villosa), and bicultured rye/vetch and ryegrass/vetch on N availability in soil, corn (Zea mays L.) yield, and NO3-N leaching in a silt loam soil. The field had been in corn and cover crop rotation since 1987. In addition to the cover crop treatments, there were four N fertilizer rates (0, 67, 134, and 201 kg N ha(-1), referred to as N0, N1, N2, and N3, respectively) applied to corn. The experiment was a randomized split-block design with three replications for each treatment. Lysimeters were installed in 1987 at 0.75 m below the soil surface for leachate collection for the N 0, N 2, and N 3 treatments. The result showed that vetch monoculture had the most influence on soil N availability and corn yield, followed by the bicultures. Rye or ryegrass monoculture had either no effect or an adverse effect on corn yield and soil N availability. Leachate NO3-N concentration was highest where vetch cover crop was planted regardless of N rates, which suggests that N mineralization of vetch N continued well into the fall and winter. Leachate NO3-N concentration increased with increasing N fertilizer rates and exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's drinking water standard of 10 mg N l(-1) even at recommended N rate for corn in this region (coastal Pacific Northwest). In comparisons of the average NO3-N concentration during the period of high N leaching, monocultured rye and ryegrass or bicultured rye/vetch and ryegrass/vetch very effectively decreased N leaching in 1998 with dry fall weather. The amount of N available for leaching (determined based on the presidedress nitrate test, the amount of N fertilizer applied, and N uptake) correlated well with average NO3-N during the high N leaching period for vetch cover crop treatment and for the control without the cover crops. The correlation, however, failed for other cover crops largely because of variable effectiveness of the cover crops in reducing NO3 leaching during the 5 years of this study. Further research is needed to determine if relay cover crops planted into standing summer crops is a more appropriate approach than fall seeding in this region to gain sufficient growth of the cover crop by fall. Testing with other main crops that have earlier harvest dates than corn is also needed to further validate the effectiveness of the bicultures to increase soil N availability while protecting the water quality.

Assessment of impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on maize production in Uganda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikoyo, Duncan A.; Nobert, Joel

2016-06-01

Globally, various climatic studies have estimated a reduction of crop yields due to changes in surface temperature and precipitation especially for the developing countries which is heavily dependent on agriculture and lacks resources to counter the negative effects of climate change. Uganda's economy and the wellbeing of its populace depend on rain-fed agriculture which is susceptible to climate change. This study quantified the impacts of climate change and variability in Uganda and how coping strategies can enhance crop production against climate change and/or variability. The study used statistical methods to establish various climate change and variability indicators across the country, and uses the FAO AquaCrop model to simulate yields under possible future climate scenarios with and without adaptation strategies. Maize, the most widely grown crop was used for the study. Meteorological, soil and crop data were collected for various districts representing the maize growing ecological zones in the country. Based on this study, it was found that temperatures have increased by up to 1 °C across much of Uganda since the 1970s, with rates of warming around 0.3 °C per decade across the country. High altitude, low rainfall regions experience the highest level of warming, with over 0.5 °C/decade recorded in Kasese. Rainfall is variable and does not follow a specific significant increasing or decreasing trend. For both future climate scenarios, Maize yields will reduce in excess of 4.7% for the fast warming-low rainfall climates but increase on average by 3.5% for slow warming-high rainfall regions, by 2050. Improved soil fertility can improve yields by over 50% while mulching and use of surface water management practices improve yields by single digit percentages. The use of fertilizer application needs to go hand in hand with other water management strategies since more yields as a result of the improved soil fertility leads to increased water stress, especially for the dry climates.

Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan.

PubMed

Awais, Muhammad; Wajid, Aftab; Saleem, Muhammad Farrukh; Nasim, Wajid; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Raza, Muhammad Aown Sammar; Bashir, Muhammad Usman; Mubeen, Muhammad; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Habib Ur Rahman, Muhammad; Saeed, Umer; Arshad, Muhammad Naveed; Hussain, Jamshad

2018-05-01

Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop's yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO 2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO 2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO 2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha -1 ) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.

Greenhouse tomato limited cluster production systems: crop management practices affect yield

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Logendra, L. S.; Gianfagna, T. J.; Specca, D. R.; Janes, H. W.

2001-01-01

Limited-cluster production systems may be a useful strategy to increase crop production and profitability for the greenhouse tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill). In this study, using an ebb-and-flood hydroponics system, we modified plant architecture and spacing and determined the effects on fruit yield and harvest index at two light levels. Single-cluster plants pruned to allow two leaves above the cluster had 25% higher fruit yields than did plants pruned directly above the cluster; this was due to an increase in fruit weight, not fruit number. Both fruit yield and harvest index were greater for all single-cluster plants at the higher light level because of increases in both fruit weight and fruit number. Fruit yield for two-cluster plants was 30% to 40% higher than for single-cluster plants, and there was little difference in the dates or length of the harvest period. Fruit yield for three-cluster plants was not significantly different from that of two-cluster plants; moreover, the harvest period was delayed by 5 days. Plant density (5.5, 7.4, 9.2 plants/m2) affected fruit yield/plant, but not fruit yield/unit area. Given the higher costs for materials and labor associated with higher plant densities, a two-cluster crop at 5.5 plants/m2 with two leaves above the cluster was the best of the production system strategies tested.

Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008.

PubMed

Zhang, Tianyi; Huang, Yao

2012-06-01

Negative climate impacts on crop yield increase pressures on food security in China. In this study, climatic impacts on cereal yields (rice, wheat and maize) were investigated by analyzing climate-yield relationships from 1980 to 2008. Results indicated that warming was significant, but trends in precipitation and solar radiation were not statistically significant in most of China. In general, maize is particularly sensitive to warming. However, increase in temperature was correlated with both lower and higher yield of rice and wheat, which is inconsistent with the current view that warming results in decline in yields. Of the three cereal crops, further analysis suggested that reduction in yields with higher temperature is accompanied by lower precipitation, which mainly occurred in northern parts of China, suggesting droughts reduced yield due to lack of water resources. Similarly, a positive correlation between temperature and yield can be alternatively explained by the effect of solar radiation, mainly in the southern part of China where water resources are abundant. Overall, our study suggests that it is inter-annual variations in precipitation and solar radiation that have driven change in cereal yields in China over the last three decades. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

The Impact of Changing Snowmelt Timing on Non-Irrigated Crop Yield in Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, E. M.; Cobourn, K.; Flores, A. N.; Pierce, J. L.; Kunkel, M. L.

2013-12-01

The impacts of climate change on water resources have implications for both agricultural production and grower welfare. Many mountainous regions in the western U.S. rely on snowmelt as the dominant surface water source, and in Idaho, reconstructions of spring snowmelt timing have demonstrated a trend toward earlier, more variable snowmelt dates within the past 20 years. This earlier date and increased variability in snowmelt timing have serious implications for agriculture, but there is considerable uncertainty about how agricultural impacts vary by region, crop-type, and practices like irrigation vs. dryland farming. Establishing the relationship between snowmelt timing and agricultural yield is important for understanding how changes in large-scale climatic indices (like snowmelt date) may be associated with changes in agricultural yield. This is particularly important where local practitioner behavior is influenced by historically observed relationships between these climate indices and yield. In addition, a better understanding of the influence of changes in snowmelt on non-irrigated crop yield may be extrapolated to better understand how climate change may alter biomass production in non-managed ecosystems. To investigate the impact of snowmelt date on non-irrigated crop yield, we developed a multiple linear regression model to predict historical wheat and barley yield in several Idaho counties as a function of snowmelt date, climate variables (precipitation and growing degree-days), and spatial differences between counties. The relationship between snowmelt timing and non-irrigated crop yield at the county level is strong in many of the models, but differs in magnitude and direction for the two different crops. Results show interesting spatial patterns of variability in the correlation between snowmelt timing and crop yield. In four southern counties that border the Snake River Plain and one county bordering Oregon, non-irrigated wheat and/or barley yield are significantly lower in years with early snowmelt timing, on average (P < 0.10). In contrast, in northern Idaho, barley yield is significantly higher in years with early snowmelt timing. Overall, this statistical modeling exercise indicates that the trend toward earlier snowmelt date may positively impact non-irrigated crop yield in some regions of Idaho, while negatively impacting yield in other areas. Additional research is necessary to identify spatial controls on the variable relationship between snowmelt timing and yield. Regional variability in the response of crops to changes in snowmelt timing may indicate that external factors (e.g. higher amounts of summer rain in northern vs. southern Idaho) may play an important role in crop yield. This study indicates that targeted regional analysis is necessary to determine the influence of climate change on agriculture, as local variability can cause the same forcing to produce opposite results.

Closing yield gaps: perils and possibilities for biodiversity conservation

PubMed Central

Phalan, Ben; Green, Rhys; Balmford, Andrew

2014-01-01

Increasing agricultural productivity to ‘close yield gaps’ creates both perils and possibilities for biodiversity conservation. Yield increases often have negative impacts on species within farmland, but at the same time could potentially make it more feasible to minimize further cropland expansion into natural habitats. We combine global data on yield gaps, projected future production of maize, rice and wheat, the distributions of birds and their estimated sensitivity to changes in crop yields to map where it might be most beneficial for bird conservation to close yield gaps as part of a land-sparing strategy, and where doing so might be most damaging. Closing yield gaps to attainable levels to meet projected demand in 2050 could potentially help spare an area equivalent to that of the Indian subcontinent. Increasing yields this much on existing farmland would inevitably reduce its biodiversity, and therefore we advocate efforts both to constrain further increases in global food demand, and to identify the least harmful ways of increasing yields. The land-sparing potential of closing yield gaps will not be realized without specific mechanisms to link yield increases to habitat protection (and restoration), and therefore we suggest that conservationists, farmers, crop scientists and policy-makers collaborate to explore promising mechanisms. PMID:24535392

Impact of cover crops on soil nitrate, crop yield and quality

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

There are multiple benefits of incorporating cover crops into current production systems including decreasing erosion, improving water infiltration, increasing soil organic matter and biological activity but in water limited areas caution should be utilized. A field study was established in the fal...

Effects of cropping systems on soil biology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The need for fertilizer use to enhance soil nutrient pools to achieve good crop yield is essential to modern agriculture. Specific management practices, including cover cropping, that increase the activities of soil microorganisms to fix N and mobilize P and micronutrients may reduce annual inputs ...

Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

2012-12-01

The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of vulnerability analysis. They also contribute to considerations of adaptation, focusing attention on adapting to increased variability in yield rather than just reductions in yield. For example, in the face of increased variability or reduced reliability, hedging and risk spreading strategies may be more important than technological innovations such as drought-resistant crops or other optimization strategies. Our findings also have implications for the choice and application of climate extreme indices, demands on models used to project climate change and the development of next generation integrated assessment models (IAM) that incorporate the agricultural sector, and especially adaption within that sector, in energy and broader more general markets.

Effect of weed management and seed rate on crop growth under direct dry seeded rice systems in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Ahmed, Sharif; Salim, Muhammad; Chauhan, Bhagirath S

2014-01-01

Weeds are a major constraint to the success of dry-seeded rice (DSR). The main means of managing these in a DSR system is through chemical weed control using herbicides. However, the use of herbicides alone may not be sustainable in the long term. Approaches that aim for high crop competitiveness therefore need to be exploited. One such approach is the use of high rice seeding rates. Experiments were conducted in the aman (wet) seasons of 2012 and 2013 in Bangladesh to evaluate the effect of weed infestation level (partially-weedy and weed-free) and rice seeding rate (20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 kg ha(-1)) on weed and crop growth in DSR. Under weed-free conditions, higher crop yields (5.1 and 5.2 t ha(-1) in the 2012 and 2013 seasons, respectively) were obtained at the seeding rate of 40 kg ha(-1) and thereafter, yield decreased slightly beyond 40 kg seed ha(-1). Under partially-weedy conditions, yield increased by 30 to 33% (2.0-2.2 and 2.9-3.2 t ha(-1) in the 2012 and 2013 seasons, respectively) with increase in seeding rate from 20 to 100 kg ha(-1). In the partially-weedy plots, weed biomass decreased by 41-60% and 54-56% at 35 days after sowing and at crop anthesis, respectively, when seeding rate increased from 20 to 100 kg ha(-1). Results from our study suggest that increasing seeding rates in DSR can suppress weed growth and reduce grain yield losses from weed competition.

Enhancing Soil Productivity Using a Multi-Crop Rotation and Beef Cattle Grazing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Şentürklü, Songül; Landblom, Douglas; Cihacek, Larry; Brevik, Eric

2016-04-01

Agricultural production systems that include complimentary plant, soil and animal interaction contribute to sustainability. In sustainable livestock systems integrated with crop production, the soil resource is impacted positively. The goal of this research was to maximize beef cattle and crop economic yield, while improving the soil resource by increasing soil organic matter (SOM) and subsequently seasonal soil nitrogen fertility over a 5-year period (2011-2015). Each experimental crop field used in the study was 1.74 ha. Small-seeded crops were planted using a JD 1590 No-Till drill. Corn (C) and sunflowers (SF) were planted using a JD 7000 No-Till planter. The cropping sequence used in the study was SF, hard red spring wheat (HRSW), fall seeded winter triticale-hairy vetch (T-HV), spring harvested for hay/mid-June seeded 7-species cover crop (CC; SF, Everleaf Oat, Flex Winter Pea, HV, Winfred Forage Rape, Ethiopian Cabbage, Hunter Leaf Turnip), C (85-day var.), and field pea-barley intercrop (PBY). The HRSW and SF were harvested as cash crops and the PBY, C, and CC were harvested by grazing cattle. In the system, yearling beef steers grazed PBY and unharvested C before feedlot entry, and after weaning, gestating cows grazed CC. Seasonal soil nitrogen fertility was measured at 0-15, 15-30, and 30-61 cm depths approximately every two weeks from June to October, 2014. The regression illustrating the relationship between SOM and average seasonal available mineral nitrogen shows that for each percentage increase in SOM there is a corresponding N increase of 1.47 kg/ha. Nitrogen fertilizer applications for the 5-year period of the study were variable; however, the overall trend was for reduced fertilizer requirement as SOM increased. At the same time, grain, oilseed, and annual forage crop yields increased year over year (2011-2015) except for the 2014 crop year, when above average precipitation delayed seeding and early frost killed the C and SF crops prematurely. Crop yields were as follows for the 5 crop years in the study (2011-2015): (1) CC was 0.25, 10.5, 8.03, 1.53, and 7.22t/ha, (2) C silage was 4.08, 9.04, 9.91, 8.65, and 14.4 t/ha, (3) C grain was 1.04, 3.81, 6.09, 3.11, and 5.1 t/ha, (4) SF was 1.10, 1.96, 2.42, 1.31, and 2.29 t/ha, (5) PBY forage was 0.0, 7.68, 11.2, 9.3, and 8.72 t/ha. When cattle grazed annual forage crops (C, PBY, and CC), animal manure and trampling contributed to the overall improvement of soil fertility. These data suggest that the combined effect of a multi-crop rotation that includes animal grazing enhances soil fertility and subsequently crop yields, and animal production for a sustainable integrated agricultural system.

Soil organic carbon dynamics and crop yield for different crop rotations in a degraded ferruginous tropical soil in a semi-arid region: a simulation approach.

PubMed

Soler, C M Tojo; Bado, V B; Traore, K; Bostick, W McNair; Jones, J W; Hoogenboom, G

2011-10-01

In recent years, simulation models have been used as a complementary tool for research and for quantifying soil carbon sequestration under widely varying conditions. This has improved the understanding and prediction of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and crop yield responses to soil and climate conditions and crop management scenarios. The goal of the present study was to estimate the changes in SOC for different cropping systems in West Africa using a simulation model. A crop rotation experiment conducted in Farakô-Ba, Burkina Faso was used to evaluate the performance of the cropping system model (CSM) of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) for simulating yield of different crops. Eight crop rotations that included cotton, sorghum, peanut, maize and fallow, and three different management scenarios, one without N (control), one with chemical fertilizer (N) and one with manure applications, were studied. The CSM was able to simulate the yield trends of various crops, with inconsistencies for a few years. The simulated SOC increased slightly across the years for the sorghum-fallow rotation with manure application. However, SOC decreased for all other rotations except for the continuous fallow (native grassland), in which the SOC remained stable. The model simulated SOC for the continuous fallow system with a high degree of accuracy normalized root mean square error (RMSE)=0·001, while for the other crop rotations the simulated SOC values were generally within the standard deviation (s.d.) range of the observed data. The crop rotations that included a supplemental N-fertilizer or manure application showed an increase in the average simulated aboveground biomass for all crops. The incorporation of this biomass into the soil after harvest reduced the loss of SOC. In the present study, the observed SOC data were used for characterization of production systems with different SOC dynamics. Following careful evaluation of the CSM with observed soil organic matter (SOM) data similar to the study presented here, there are many opportunities for the application of the CSM for carbon sequestration and resource management in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Non-structural carbohydrate partitioning in grass stems: a target to increase yield stability, stress tolerance, and biofuel production.

PubMed

Slewinski, Thomas L

2012-08-01

A dramatic change in agricultural crops is needed in order to keep pace with the demands of an increasing human population, exponential need for renewable fuels, and uncertain climatic changes. Grasses make up the vast majority of agricultural commodities. How these grasses capture, transport, and store carbohydrates underpins all aspects of crop productivity. Sink-source dynamics within the plant direct how much, where, and when carbohydrates are allocated, as well as determine the harvestable tissue. Carbohydrate partitioning can limit the yield capacity of these plants, thus offering a potential target for crop improvement. Grasses have the ability to buffer this sink-source interaction by transiently storing carbohydrates in stem tissue when production from the source is greater than whole-plant demand. These reserves improve yield stability in grain crops by providing an alternative source when photosynthetic capacity is reduced during the later phases of grain filling, or during periods of environmental and biotic stresses. Domesticated grasses such as sugarcane and sweet sorghum have undergone selection for high accumulation of stem carbohydrates, which serve as the primary sources of sugars for human and animal consumption, as well as ethanol production for fuel. With the enormous expectations placed on agricultural production in the near future, research into carbohydrate partitioning in grasses is essential for maintaining and increasing yields in grass crops. This review highlights the current knowledge of non-structural carbohydrate dynamics in grass stems and discusses the impacts of stem reserves in essential agronomic grasses.

Crop responses to elevated CO2 and interactions with H2O, N, and temperature.

PubMed

Kimball, Bruce A

2016-06-01

About twenty-seven years ago, free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) technology was developed that enabled the air above open-field plots to be enriched with CO2 for entire growing seasons. Since then, FACE experiments have been conducted on cotton, wheat, ryegrass, clover, potato, grape, rice, barley, sugar beet, soybean, cassava, rape, mustard, coffee (C3 crops), and sorghum and maize (C4 crops). Elevated CO2 (550ppm from an ambient concentration of about 353ppm in 1990) decreased evapotranspiration about 10% on average and increased canopy temperatures about 0.7°C. Biomass and yield were increased by FACE in all C3 species, but not in C4 species except when water was limiting. Yields of C3 grain crops were increased on average about 19%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Yield and yield gaps in central U.S. corn production systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The magnitude of yield gaps (YG) (potential yield – farmer yield) provides some indication of the prospects for increasing crop yield. Quantile regression analysis was applied to county maize (Zea mays L.) yields (1972 – 2011) from Kentucky, Iowa and Nebraska (irrigated) (total of 115 counties) to e...

Yield gaps and yield relationships in US soybean production systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The magnitude of yield gaps (YG) (potential yield – farmer yield) provides some indication of the prospects for increasing crop yield to meet the food demands of future populations. Quantile regression analysis was applied to county soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merrill] yields (1971 – 2011) from Kentuc...

Modelling crop yield in Iberia under drought conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia

2017-04-01

The improved assessment of the cereal yield and crop loss under drought conditions are essential to meet the increasing economy demands. The growing frequency and severity of the extreme drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has been likely responsible for negative impacts on agriculture, namely on crop yield losses. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of vegetation activity and a reliable estimation of drought impacts is crucial to contribute for the agricultural drought management and development of suitable information tools. This works aims to assess the influence of drought conditions in agricultural yields over the IP, considering cereal yields from mainly rainfed agriculture for the provinces with higher productivity. The main target is to develop a strategy to model drought risk on agriculture for wheat yield at a province level. In order to achieve this goal a combined assessment was made using a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) to evaluate drought conditions together with a widely used vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) to monitor vegetation activity. A correlation analysis between detrended wheat yield and SPEI was performed in order to assess the vegetation response to each time scale of drought occurrence and also identify the moment of the vegetative cycle when the crop yields are more vulnerable to drought conditions. The time scales and months of SPEI, together with the months of NDVI, better related with wheat yield were chosen to perform a multivariate regression analysis to simulate crop yield. Model results are satisfactory and highlighted the usefulness of such analysis in the framework of developing a drought risk model for crop yields. In terms of an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to an improved understanding of crop yield management under dry conditions, particularly adding substantial information on the advantages of combining vegetation and hydro-meteorological drought indices for the assessment of cereal yield. Moreover, the present study will provide some guidance on user's decision making process in agricultural practices in the IP, assisting farmers in deciding whether to purchase crop insurance. Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project IMDROFLOOD (WaterJPI/0004/2014). Ana Russo thanks FCT for granted support (SFRH/BPD/99757/2014). Andreia Ribeiro also thanks FCT for grant PD/BD/114481/2016.

Ensembles modeling approach to study Climate Change impacts on Wheat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Mukhtar; Claudio, Stöckle O.; Nelson, Roger; Higgins, Stewart

2017-04-01

Simulations of crop yield under climate variability are subject to uncertainties, and quantification of such uncertainties is essential for effective use of projected results in adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study we evaluated the uncertainties related to crop-climate models using five crop growth simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM, DSSAT, STICS and EPIC) and 14 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP) of atmospheric CO2 (4.5 and 8.5 W m-2) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. The aim was to assess how different process-based crop models could be used accurately for estimation of winter wheat growth, development and yield. Firstly, all models were calibrated for high rainfall, medium rainfall, low rainfall and irrigated sites in the PNW using 1979-2010 as the baseline period. Response variables were related to farm management and soil properties, and included crop phenology, leaf area index (LAI), biomass and grain yield of winter wheat. All five models were run from 2000 to 2100 using the 14 GCMs and 2 RCPs to evaluate the effect of future climate (rainfall, temperature and CO2) on winter wheat phenology, LAI, biomass, grain yield and harvest index. Simulated time to flowering and maturity was reduced in all models except EPIC with some level of uncertainty. All models generally predicted an increase in biomass and grain yield under elevated CO2 but this effect was more prominent under rainfed conditions than irrigation. However, there was uncertainty in the simulation of crop phenology, biomass and grain yield under 14 GCMs during three prediction periods (2030, 2050 and 2070). We concluded that to improve accuracy and consistency in simulating wheat growth dynamics and yield under a changing climate, a multimodel ensemble approach should be used.

Conservation Agriculture Practices in Rainfed Uplands of India Improve Maize-Based System Productivity and Profitability

PubMed Central

Pradhan, Aliza; Idol, Travis; Roul, Pravat K.

2016-01-01

Traditional agriculture in rainfed uplands of India has been experiencing low agricultural productivity as the lands suffer from poor soil fertility, susceptibility to water erosion and other external pressures of development and climate change. A shift toward more sustainable cropping systems such as conservation agriculture production systems (CAPSs) may help in maintaining soil quality as well as improving crop production and farmer’s net economic benefit. This research assessed the effects over 3 years (2011–2014) of reduced tillage, intercropping, and cover cropping practices customized for maize-based production systems in upland areas of Odisha, India. The study focused on crop yield, system productivity and profitability through maize equivalent yield and dominance analysis. Results showed that maize grain yield did not differ significantly over time or among CAPS treatments while cowpea yield was considered as an additional yield in intercropping systems. Mustard and horsegram grown in plots after maize cowpea intercropping recorded higher grain yields of 25 and 37%, respectively, as compared to those without intercropping. Overall, the full CAPS implementation, i.e., minimum tillage, maize–cowpea intercropping and mustard residue retention had significantly higher system productivity and net benefits than traditional farmer practices, i.e., conventional tillage, sole maize cropping, and no mustard residue retention. The dominance analysis demonstrated increasing benefits of combining conservation practices that exceeded thresholds for farmer adoption. Given the use of familiar crops and technologies and the magnitude of yield and income improvements, these types of CAPS should be acceptable and attractive for smallholder farmers in the area. This in turn should support a move toward sustainable intensification of crop production to meet future household income and nutritional needs. PMID:27471508

Conservation Agriculture Practices in Rainfed Uplands of India Improve Maize-Based System Productivity and Profitability.

PubMed

Pradhan, Aliza; Idol, Travis; Roul, Pravat K

2016-01-01

Traditional agriculture in rainfed uplands of India has been experiencing low agricultural productivity as the lands suffer from poor soil fertility, susceptibility to water erosion and other external pressures of development and climate change. A shift toward more sustainable cropping systems such as conservation agriculture production systems (CAPSs) may help in maintaining soil quality as well as improving crop production and farmer's net economic benefit. This research assessed the effects over 3 years (2011-2014) of reduced tillage, intercropping, and cover cropping practices customized for maize-based production systems in upland areas of Odisha, India. The study focused on crop yield, system productivity and profitability through maize equivalent yield and dominance analysis. Results showed that maize grain yield did not differ significantly over time or among CAPS treatments while cowpea yield was considered as an additional yield in intercropping systems. Mustard and horsegram grown in plots after maize cowpea intercropping recorded higher grain yields of 25 and 37%, respectively, as compared to those without intercropping. Overall, the full CAPS implementation, i.e., minimum tillage, maize-cowpea intercropping and mustard residue retention had significantly higher system productivity and net benefits than traditional farmer practices, i.e., conventional tillage, sole maize cropping, and no mustard residue retention. The dominance analysis demonstrated increasing benefits of combining conservation practices that exceeded thresholds for farmer adoption. Given the use of familiar crops and technologies and the magnitude of yield and income improvements, these types of CAPS should be acceptable and attractive for smallholder farmers in the area. This in turn should support a move toward sustainable intensification of crop production to meet future household income and nutritional needs.

A numerical study of the effect of irrigation on land-atmosphere interactions in a spring wheat cropland in India using a coupled atmosphere-crop growth dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumari, S.; Sharma, P.; Srivastava, A.; Rastogi, D.; Sehgal, V. K.; Dhakar, R.; Roy, S. B.

2017-12-01

Vegetation dynamics and surface meteorology are tightly coupled through the exchange of momentum, moisture and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere. In this study, we use a recently developed coupled atmosphere-crop growth dynamics model to study these exchanges and their effects in a spring wheat cropland in northern India. In particular, we investigate the role of irrigation in controlling crop growth rates, surface meteorology, and sensible and latent heat fluxes. The model is developed by implementing a crop growth module based on the Simple and Universal Crop growth Simulator (SUCROS) model in the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model. The crop module calculates photosynthesis rates, carbon assimilation, and biomass partitioning as a function of environmental factors and crop development stage. The leaf area index (LAI) and root depth calculated by the crop module is then fed to the Noah-MP land module of WRF to calculate land-atmosphere fluxes. The crop model is calibrated using data from an experimental spring wheat crop site in the Indian Agriculture Research Institute. The coupled model is capable of simulating the observed spring wheat phenology. Irrigation is simulated by changing the soil moisture levels from 50% - 100% of field capacity. Results show that the yield first increases with increasing soil moisture and then starts decreasing as we further increase the soil moisture. Yield attains its maximum value with soil moisture at the level of 60% water of FC. At this level, high LAI values lead to a decrease in the Bowen Ratio because more energy is transferred to the atmosphere as latent heat rather than sensible heat resulting in a cooling effect on near-surface air temperatures. Apart from improving simulation of land-atmosphere interactions, this coupled modeling approach can form the basis for the seamless crop yield and seasonal scale weather outlook prediction system.

Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Kim, Han-Yong; Ko, Jonghan; Kang, Suchel; Tenhunen, John

2013-02-01

The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO2 enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (-22.1% and -35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES-Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Optimizing rice yields while minimizing yield-scaled global warming potential.

PubMed

Pittelkow, Cameron M; Adviento-Borbe, Maria A; van Kessel, Chris; Hill, James E; Linquist, Bruce A

2014-05-01

To meet growing global food demand with limited land and reduced environmental impact, agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are increasingly evaluated with respect to crop productivity, i.e., on a yield-scaled as opposed to area basis. Here, we compiled available field data on CH4 and N2 O emissions from rice production systems to test the hypothesis that in response to fertilizer nitrogen (N) addition, yield-scaled global warming potential (GWP) will be minimized at N rates that maximize yields. Within each study, yield N surplus was calculated to estimate deficit or excess N application rates with respect to the optimal N rate (defined as the N rate at which maximum yield was achieved). Relationships between yield N surplus and GHG emissions were assessed using linear and nonlinear mixed-effects models. Results indicate that yields increased in response to increasing N surplus when moving from deficit to optimal N rates. At N rates contributing to a yield N surplus, N2 O and yield-scaled N2 O emissions increased exponentially. In contrast, CH4 emissions were not impacted by N inputs. Accordingly, yield-scaled CH4 emissions decreased with N addition. Overall, yield-scaled GWP was minimized at optimal N rates, decreasing by 21% compared to treatments without N addition. These results are unique compared to aerobic cropping systems in which N2 O emissions are the primary contributor to GWP, meaning yield-scaled GWP may not necessarily decrease for aerobic crops when yields are optimized by N fertilizer addition. Balancing gains in agricultural productivity with climate change concerns, this work supports the concept that high rice yields can be achieved with minimal yield-scaled GWP through optimal N application rates. Moreover, additional improvements in N use efficiency may further reduce yield-scaled GWP, thereby strengthening the economic and environmental sustainability of rice systems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ascochyta blight of chickpeas

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Chickpea is becoming increasingly important as a rotational crop in cereal production systems. Ascochyta blight is the most devastating disease of chickpea and must be appropriately managed to minimize its damage to crops and increase chickpea yield. The disease is caused by the fungus Ascochyta r...

3% Yield Increase (HH3), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 3% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

2% Yield Increase (HH2), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, Maggie R.; Hellwinkel, Chad; Eaton, Laurence

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought tomore » market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 2% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.« less

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE PAGES

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-10-27

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-11-01

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparison between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between -12% and +15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

A Fast Track approach to deal with the temporal dimension of crop water footprint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuninetti, Marta; Tamea, Stefania; Laio, Francesco; Ridolfi, Luca

2017-07-01

Population growth, socio-economic development and climate changes are placing increasing pressure on water resources. Crop water footprint is a key indicator in the quantification of such pressure. It is determined by crop evapotranspiration and crop yield, which can be highly variable in space and time. While the spatial variability of crop water footprint has been the objective of several investigations, the temporal variability remains poorly studied. In particular, some studies approached this issue by associating the time variability of crop water footprint only to yield changes, while considering evapotranspiration patterns as marginal. Validation of this Fast Track approach has yet to be provided. In this Letter we demonstrate its feasibility through a comprehensive validation, an assessment of its uncertainty, and an example of application. Our results show that the water footprint changes are mainly driven by yield trends, while evapotranspiration plays a minor role. The error due to considering constant evapotranspiration is three times smaller than the uncertainty of the model used to compute the crop water footprint. These results confirm the suitability of the Fast Track approach and enable a simple, yet appropriate, evaluation of time-varying crop water footprint.

Crop diversification, tillage, and management system influences on spring wheat yield and soil water use

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Depleted soil quality, decreased water availability, and increased weed competition constrain spring wheat production in the northern Great Plains. Integrated crop management systems are necessary for improved crop productivity. We conducted a field experiment from 2004-2010 comparing productivity...

Soil Quality in a Pecan Agroforestry System is Improved with Intercropped Kura Clover

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Intercropping alleys of agroforestry systems provides an income source until the tree crop produces harvestable yields. However, cultivation of annual crops decreases soil organic matter and increases soil erosion, especially on sloping landscapes. Perennial crops maintain a continuous soil cover, m...

Herbicide and cover crop residue integration in conservation tillage tomato

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The increased adoption of conservation tillage in vegetable production requires more information on the role of various cover crops in weed control, tomato quality, and yield. Three conservation-tillage systems utilizing crimson clover, turnip, and cereal rye as winter cover crops were compared to a...

Engineering Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz for enhanced oil and seed yields by combining diacylglycerol acyltransferase1 and glycerol-3-phosphate dehydrogenase expression.

PubMed

Chhikara, Sudesh; Abdullah, Hesham M; Akbari, Parisa; Schnell, Danny; Dhankher, Om Parkash

2018-05-01

Plant seed oil-based liquid transportation fuels (i.e., biodiesel and green diesel) have tremendous potential as environmentally, economically and technologically feasible alternatives to petroleum-derived fuels. Due to their nutritional and industrial importance, one of the major objectives is to increase the seed yield and oil production of oilseed crops via biotechnological approaches. Camelina sativa, an emerging oilseed crop, has been proposed as an ideal crop for biodiesel and bioproduct applications. Further increase in seed oil yield by increasing the flux of carbon from increased photosynthesis into triacylglycerol (TAG) synthesis will make this crop more profitable. To increase the oil yield, we engineered Camelina by co-expressing the Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynh. diacylglycerol acyltransferase1 (DGAT1) and a yeast cytosolic glycerol-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GPD1) genes under the control of seed-specific promoters. Plants co-expressing DGAT1 and GPD1 exhibited up to 13% higher seed oil content and up to 52% increase in seed mass compared to wild-type plants. Further, DGAT1- and GDP1-co-expressing lines showed significantly higher seed and oil yields on a dry weight basis than the wild-type controls or plants expressing DGAT1 and GPD1 alone. The oil harvest index (g oil per g total dry matter) for DGTA1- and GPD1-co-expressing lines was almost twofold higher as compared to wild type and the lines expressing DGAT1 and GPD1 alone. Therefore, combining the overexpression of TAG biosynthetic genes, DGAT1 and GPD1, appears to be a positive strategy to achieve a synergistic effect on the flux through the TAG synthesis pathway, and thereby further increase the oil yield. © 2017 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increasing crop yield and resilience with trehalose 6-phosphate: targeting a feast-famine mechanism in cereals for better source-sink optimization.

PubMed

Paul, Matthew J; Oszvald, Maria; Jesus, Claudia; Rajulu, Charukesi; Griffiths, Cara A

2017-07-20

Food security is a pressing global issue. New approaches are required to break through a yield ceiling that has developed in recent years for the major crops. As important as increasing yield potential is the protection of yield from abiotic stresses in an increasingly variable and unpredictable climate. Current strategies to improve yield include conventional breeding, marker-assisted breeding, quantitative trait loci (QTLs), mutagenesis, creation of hybrids, genetic modification (GM), emerging genome-editing technologies, and chemical approaches. A regulatory mechanism amenable to three of these approaches has great promise for large yield improvements. Trehalose 6-phosphate (T6P) synthesized in the low-flux trehalose biosynthetic pathway signals the availability of sucrose in plant cells as part of a whole-plant sucrose homeostatic mechanism. Modifying T6P content by GM, marker-assisted selection, and novel chemistry has improved yield in three major cereals under a range of water availabilities from severe drought through to flooding. Yield improvements have been achieved by altering carbon allocation and how carbon is used. Targeting T6P both temporally and spatially offers great promise for large yield improvements in productive (up to 20%) and marginal environments (up to 120%). This opinion paper highlights this important breakthrough in fundamental science for crop improvement. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The In Vitro Mass-Produced Model Mycorrhizal Fungus, Rhizophagus irregularis, Significantly Increases Yields of the Globally Important Food Security Crop Cassava

PubMed Central

Ceballos, Isabel; Ruiz, Michael; Fernández, Cristhian; Peña, Ricardo

2013-01-01

The arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis is formed between arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and plant roots. The fungi provide the plant with inorganic phosphate (P). The symbiosis can result in increased plant growth. Although most global food crops naturally form this symbiosis, very few studies have shown that their practical application can lead to large-scale increases in food production. Application of AMF to crops in the tropics is potentially effective for improving yields. However, a main problem of using AMF on a large-scale is producing cheap inoculum in a clean sterile carrier and sufficiently concentrated to cheaply transport. Recently, mass-produced in vitro inoculum of the model mycorrhizal fungus Rhizophagus irregularis became available, potentially making its use viable in tropical agriculture. One of the most globally important food plants in the tropics is cassava. We evaluated the effect of in vitro mass-produced R. irregularis inoculum on the yield of cassava crops at two locations in Colombia. A significant effect of R. irregularis inoculation on yield occurred at both sites. At one site, yield increases were observed irrespective of P fertilization. At the other site, inoculation with AMF and 50% of the normally applied P gave the highest yield. Despite that AMF inoculation resulted in greater food production, economic analyses revealed that AMF inoculation did not give greater return on investment than with conventional cultivation. However, the amount of AMF inoculum used was double the recommended dose and was calculated with European, not Colombian, inoculum prices. R. irregularis can also be manipulated genetically in vitro, leading to improved plant growth. We conclude that application of in vitro R. irregularis is currently a way of increasing cassava yields, that there is a strong potential for it to be economically profitable and that there is enormous potential to improve this efficiency further in the future. PMID:23950975

Simulation of crop yield variability by improved root-soil-interaction modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, X.; Gayler, S.; Priesack, E.

2009-04-01

Understanding the processes and factors that govern the within-field variability in crop yield has attached great importance due to applications in precision agriculture. Crop response to environment at field scale is a complex dynamic process involving the interactions of soil characteristics, weather conditions and crop management. The numerous static factors combined with temporal variations make it very difficult to identify and manage the variability pattern. Therefore, crop simulation models are considered to be useful tools in analyzing separately the effects of change in soil or weather conditions on the spatial variability, in order to identify the cause of yield variability and to quantify the spatial and temporal variation. However, tests showed that usual crop models such as CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize were not able to quantify the observed within-field yield variability, while their performance on crop growth simulation under more homogeneous and mainly non-limiting conditions was sufficent to simulate average yields at the field-scale. On a study site in South Germany, within-field variability in crop growth has been documented since years. After detailed analysis and classification of the soil patterns, two site specific factors, the plant-available-water and the O2 deficiency, were considered as the main causes of the crop growth variability in this field. Based on our measurement of root distribution in the soil profile, we hypothesize that in our case the insufficiency of the applied crop models to simulate the yield variability can be due to the oversimplification of the involved root models which fail to be sensitive to different soil conditions. In this study, the root growth model described by Jones et al. (1991) was adapted by using data of root distributions in the field and linking the adapted root model to the CERES crop model. The ability of the new root model to increase the sensitivity of the CERES crop models to different enviromental conditions was then evaluated by means of comparison of the simualtion results with measured data and by scenario calculations.

Bats and birds increase crop yield in tropical agroforestry landscapes.

PubMed

Maas, Bea; Clough, Yann; Tscharntke, Teja

2013-12-01

Human welfare is significantly linked to ecosystem services such as the suppression of pest insects by birds and bats. However, effects of biocontrol services on tropical cash crop yield are still largely unknown. For the first time, we manipulated the access of birds and bats in an exclosure experiment (day, night and full exclosures compared to open controls in Indonesian cacao agroforestry) and quantified the arthropod communities, the fruit development and the final yield over a long time period (15 months). We found that bat and bird exclusion increased insect herbivore abundance, despite the concurrent release of mesopredators such as ants and spiders, and negatively affected fruit development, with final crop yield decreasing by 31% across local (shade cover) and landscape (distance to primary forest) gradients. Our results highlight the tremendous economic impact of common insectivorous birds and bats, which need to become an essential part of sustainable landscape management. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Differential responses in yield of pumpkin (Cucurbita maxima L.) and nightshade (Solanum retroflexum Dun.) to the application of three animal manures.

PubMed

Azeez, J O; Van Averbeke, W; Okorogbona, A O M

2010-04-01

Crop responses to different manures differs considerably, however, the factors responsible for it have not been conclusively elucidated. Consequently, this study examined the biomass response of Cucurbita maxima and Solanum retroflexum to application rates of chicken and kraal manures of cattle and goat, and soil factors related to salinity. The crops' biomass yield increased linearly with increase in application rates of kraal and chicken manures, but steeper in the latter. Results showed that significant decline in biomass yield in chicken manure at rates above 8.5 tons ha(-1) were not due to salinity. The crops' response to cattle and goat kraal manures was linear but polynomial (cubic) in layer chicken manure. It was concluded that the yield decline in chicken manure was due to other manure factors except salinity, probably toxicity effect of the manure fatty acids. Further research was however, recommended to elucidate this claim. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Base-Case 1% Yield Increase (BC1), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the base-case scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 1% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

Methanol and the productivity of tropical crops

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferguson, T.U.

1995-12-31

Studies are being conducted in Trinidad and Tobago, St. Lucia and St. Kitts/Nevis to determine the effect of aqueous solutions of methanol on the growth and yield of a wide range of vegetable, field and perennial crops. The paper presents a summary of results to data for ten of the crops studied. Six of these crops, lettuce, sweet pepper, tomato, mango and breadfruit, have shown significant increases in growth or yield with methanol application, while others such as pigeon pea, rice, banana and cocoa have shown more limited responses. There appears to be some potential for the use of methanolmore » in tropical crop production but further studies are required before this apparent potential can be harnessed.« less

Comparison of SPI and SPEI applicability for drought impact assessment on crop production in the Danubian Lowland and the East Slovakian Lowland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labudová, L.; Labuda, M.; Takáč, J.

2017-04-01

Drought belongs among the main impact factors considering crop yields. Therefore, this paper is focused on the assessment of drought occurrence and intensity as well as on its impact on crop yields on the Danubian and the East Slovakian lowlands with the spatial resolution at district level. Yield data were the main limitation of the study, which resulted in the limited length of the assessed period (1996-2013). The standardized yields of ten crops (winter wheat, spring wheat, winter barley, spring barley, rye, maize, potatoes, oilseed rape, sunflower, and sugar beet) were correlated with monthly, 2-, and 3-monthly standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI). For this purpose, the common significance level of alpha = 0.05 was used. The temporal evolution of both indices and drought occurrence during the period 1961-2013 were assessed for each district. Most crops show a higher correlation with the SPEI than with the SPI in contrast to potatoes, which reached a higher significant correlation using the SPI. The correlation also increases with increasing number of months within a time step. The highest correlation can be seen between maize and the 3-monthly SPEI in August representing summer precipitation and potential evapotranspiration conditions. Furthermore, a very high correlation was recorded considering sugar beet, which is influenced mainly by summer precipitation, because the correlation coefficient between the sugar beet and the 3-monthly SPI is as high as using the 3-monthly SPEI. Crop yields in the East Slovakian Lowland do not seem to be influenced by wet/dry periods identified using the SPI and the SPEI as their correlation with both indices is quite low and insignificant.

Effects of ecological and conventional agricultural intensification practices on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa under potential climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Gaiser, Thomas; Liu, Junguo; Wang, Xiuying; Williams, Jimmy; Schulin, Rainer

2014-04-01

Much of Africa is among the world’s regions with lowest yields in staple food crops, and climate change is expected to make it more difficult to catch up in crop production in particular in the long run. Various agronomic measures have been proposed for lifting agricultural production in Africa and to adapt it to climate change. Here, we present a projection of potential climate change impacts on maize yields under different intensification options in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using an agronomic model, GIS-based EPIC (GEPIC). Fallow and nutrient management options taken into account are (a) conventional intensification with high mineral N supply and a bare fallow, (b) moderate mineral N supply and cowpea rotation, and (c) moderate mineral N supply and rotation with a fast growing N fixing tree Sesbania sesban. The simulations suggest that until the 2040s rotation with Sesbania will lead to an increase in yields due to increasing N supply besides improving water infiltration and soils’ water holding capacity. Intensive cultivation with a bare fallow or an herbaceous crop like cowpea in the rotation is predicted to result in lower yields and increased soil erosion during the same time span. However, yields are projected to decrease in all management scenarios towards the end of the century, should temperature increase beyond critical thresholds. The results suggest that the effect of eco-intensification as a sole means of adapting agriculture to climate change is limited in Sub-Saharan Africa. Highly adverse temperatures would rather have to be faced by improved heat tolerant cultivars, while strongly adverse decreases in precipitation would have to be faced by expanding irrigation where feasible. While the evaluation of changes in agro-environmental variables like soil organic carbon, erosion, and soil humidity hints that these are major factors influencing climate change resilience of the field crop, no direct relationship between these factors, crop yields, and changes in climate variables could be identified. This will need further detailed studies at the field and regional scale.

Application of a CROPWAT Model to Analyze Crop Yields in Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doria, R.; Byrne, J. M.

2013-12-01

ABSTRACT Changes in climate are likely to influence crop yields due to varying evapotranspiration and precipitation over agricultural regions. In Nicaragua, agriculture is extensive, with new areas of land brought into production as the population increases. Nicaraguan staple food items (maize and beans) are produced mostly by small scale farmers with less than 10 hectares, but they are critical for income generation and food security for rural communities. Given that the majority of these farmers are dependent on rain for crop irrigation, and that maize and beans are sensitive to variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, the present study was undertaken to assess the impact of climate change on these crop yields. Climate data were generated per municipio representing the three major climatic zones of the country: the wet Pacific lowland, the cooler Central highland, and the Caribbean lowland. Historical normal climate data from 1970-2000 (baseline period) were used as input to CROPWAT model to analyze the potential and actual evapotranspiration (ETo and ETa, respectively) that affects crop yields. Further, generated local climatic data of future years (2030-2099) under various scenarios were inputted to the CROPWAT to determine changes in ETo and ETa from the baseline period. Spatial variability maps of both ETo and ETa as well as crop yields were created. Results indicated significant variation in seasonal rainfall depth during the baseline period and predicted decreasing trend in the future years that eventually affects yields. These maps enable us to generate appropriate adaptation measures and best management practices for small scale farmers under future climate change scenarios. KEY WORDS: Climate change, evapotranspiration, CROPWAT, yield, Nicaragua

Biochar boosts tropical but not temperate crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeffery, Simon; Abalos, Diego; Prodana, Marija; Catarina Bastos, Ana; van Groenigen, Jan Willem; Hungate, Bruce A.; Verheijen, Frank

2017-05-01

Applying biochar to soil is thought to have multiple benefits, from helping mitigate climate change [1, 2], to managing waste [3] to conserving soil [4]. Biochar is also widely assumed to boost crop yield [5, 6], but there is controversy regarding the extent and cause of any yield benefit [7]. Here we use a global-scale meta-analysis to show that biochar has, on average, no effect on crop yield in temperate latitudes, yet elicits a 25% average increase in yield in the tropics. In the tropics, biochar increased yield through liming and fertilization, consistent with the low soil pH, low fertility, and low fertilizer inputs typical of arable tropical soils. We also found that, in tropical soils, high-nutrient biochar inputs stimulated yield substantially more than low-nutrient biochar, further supporting the role of nutrient fertilization in the observed yield stimulation. In contrast, arable soils in temperate regions are moderate in pH, higher in fertility, and generally receive higher fertilizer inputs, leaving little room for additional benefits from biochar. Our findings demonstrate that the yield-stimulating effects of biochar are not universal, but may especially benefit agriculture in low-nutrient, acidic soils in the tropics. Biochar management in temperate zones should focus on potential non-yield benefits such as lime and fertilizer cost savings, greenhouse gas emissions control, and other ecosystem services.

Exploring and Harnessing Haplotype Diversity to Improve Yield Stability in Crops.

PubMed

Qian, Lunwen; Hickey, Lee T; Stahl, Andreas; Werner, Christian R; Hayes, Ben; Snowdon, Rod J; Voss-Fels, Kai P

2017-01-01

In order to meet future food, feed, fiber, and bioenergy demands, global yields of all major crops need to be increased significantly. At the same time, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events such as heat and drought necessitates improvements in the environmental resilience of modern crop cultivars. Achieving sustainably increase yields implies rapid improvement of quantitative traits with a very complex genetic architecture and strong environmental interaction. Latest advances in genome analysis technologies today provide molecular information at an ultrahigh resolution, revolutionizing crop genomic research, and paving the way for advanced quantitative genetic approaches. These include highly detailed assessment of population structure and genotypic diversity, facilitating the identification of selective sweeps and signatures of directional selection, dissection of genetic variants that underlie important agronomic traits, and genomic selection (GS) strategies that not only consider major-effect genes. Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers today represent the genotyping system of choice for crop genetic studies because they occur abundantly in plant genomes and are easy to detect. SNPs are typically biallelic, however, hence their information content compared to multiallelic markers is low, limiting the resolution at which SNP-trait relationships can be delineated. An efficient way to overcome this limitation is to construct haplotypes based on linkage disequilibrium, one of the most important features influencing genetic analyses of crop genomes. Here, we give an overview of the latest advances in genomics-based haplotype analyses in crops, highlighting their importance in the context of polyploidy and genome evolution, linkage drag, and co-selection. We provide examples of how haplotype analyses can complement well-established quantitative genetics frameworks, such as quantitative trait analysis and GS, ultimately providing an effective tool to equip modern crops with environment-tailored characteristics.

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes in land use pattern are robust.

Managing tile drainage, subirrigation, and nitrogen fertilization to enhance crop yields and reduce nitrate loss.

PubMed

Drury, C F; Tan, C S; Reynolds, W D; Welacky, T W; Oloya, T O; Gaynor, J D

2009-01-01

Improving field-crop use of fertilizer nitrogen is essential for protecting water quality and increasing crop yields. The objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness of controlled tile drainage (CD) and controlled tile drainage with subsurface irrigation (CDS) for mitigating off-field nitrate losses and enhancing crop yields. The CD and CDS systems were compared on a clay loam soil to traditional unrestricted tile drainage (UTD) under a corn (Zea Mays L.)-soybean (Glycine Max. (L.) Merr.) rotation at two nitrogen (N) fertilization rates (N1: 150 kg N ha(-1) applied to corn, no N applied to soybean; N2: 200 kg N ha(-1) applied to corn, 50 kg N ha(-1) applied to soybean). The N concentrations in tile flow events with the UTD treatment exceeded the provisional long-term aquatic life limit (LT-ALL) for freshwater (4.7 mg N L(-1)) 72% of the time at the N1 rate and 78% at the N2 rate, whereas only 24% of tile flow events at N1 and 40% at N2 exceeded the LT-ALL for the CDS treatment. Exceedances in N concentration for surface runoff and tile drainage were greater during the growing season than the non-growing season. At the N1 rate, CD and CDS reduced average annual N losses via tile drainage by 44 and 66%, respectively, relative to UTD. At the N2 rate, the average annual decreases in N loss were 31 and 68%, respectively. Crop yields from CDS were increased by an average of 2.8% relative to UTD at the N2 rate but were reduced by an average of 6.5% at the N1 rate. Hence, CD and CDS were effective for reducing average nitrate losses in tile drainage, but CDS increased average crop yields only when additional N fertilizer was applied.

Socio-economic, Biophysical, and Perceptional Factors Associated with Agricultural Adaptation of Smallholder Farmers in Gujarat, Northwest India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.

2012-12-01

Climate change is predicted to negatively impact many agricultural communities across the globe, particularly smallholder farmers who often do not have access to appropriate technologies to reduce their vulnerability. To better predict which farmers will be most impacted by future climate change at a regional scale, we use remote sensing and agricultural census data to examine how cropping intensity and crop type have shifted based on rainfall variability across Gujarat, India from 1990 to 2010. Using household-level interviews, we then identify the socio-economic, biophysical, perceptional, and psychological factors associated with smallholder farmers who are the most impacted and the least able to adapt to contemporaneous rainfall variability. We interviewed 750 farmers in 2011 and 2012 that span a rainfall, irrigation, socio-economic, and caste gradient across central Gujarat. Our results show that farmers shift cropping practices in several ways based on monsoon onset, which farmers state is the main observable rainfall signal influencing cropping decisions during the monsoon season. When monsoon onset is delayed, farmers opt to plant more drought-tolerant crops, push back the date of sowing, and increase the number of irrigations used. Comparing self-reported income and yields, we find that switching crops does not improve agricultural income, shifting planting date does not influence crop yield, yet increasing the number of irrigations significantly increases yield. Future work will identify which social (e.g. social networks), psychological (e.g. risk preference), and knowledge (e.g. information sources) factors are associated with farmers who are best able to adapt to rainfall variability.

Global warming threatens agricultural productivity in Africa and South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sultan, Benjamin

2012-12-01

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Christensen et al 2007) has, with greater confidence than previous reports, warned the international community that the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions will result in global climate change. One of the most direct and threatening impacts it may have on human societies is the potential consequences on global crop production. Indeed agriculture is considered as the most weather-dependent of all human activities (Hansen 2002) since climate is a primary determinant for agricultural productivity. The potential impact of climate change on crop productivity is an additional strain on the global food system which is already facing the difficult challenge of increasing food production to feed a projected 9 billion people by 2050 with changing consumption patterns and growing scarcity of water and land (Beddington 2010). In some regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia that are already food insecure and where most of the population increase and economic development will take place, climate change could be the additional stress that pushes systems over the edge. A striking example, if needed, is the work from Collomb (1999) which estimates that by 2050 food needs will more than quintuple in Africa and more than double in Asia. Better knowledge of climate change impacts on crop productivity in those vulnerable regions is crucial to inform policies and to support adaptation strategies that may counteract the adverse effects. Although there is a growing literature on the impact of climate change on crop productivity in tropical regions, it is difficult to provide a consistent assessment of future yield changes because of large uncertainties in regional climate change projections, in the response of crops to environmental change (rainfall, temperature, CO2 concentration), in the coupling between climate models and crop productivity functions, and in the adaptation of agricultural systems to progressive climate change (Roudier et al 2011, Challinor et al 2007). These uncertainties result in a large spread of crop yield projections indicating a low confidence in future yield projections. A recent study by Knox et al (2012) is among the first to provide robust evidence of how climate change will impact productivity of major crops in Africa and South Asia. Using a meta-analysis, which is widely used in epidemiology and medicine and consists in comparing and combining results from different independent published studies, Knox et al (2012) show a consistent yield loss by the 2050s of major crops (wheat, maize, sorghum and millet) in both regions. This systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies nicely extend previous works by Müller et al (2011) and Roudier et al (2011), confirming the threat of negative climate change impacts in Africa but also in South Asia. Knox et al (2012) estimate that mean yield change for all crops is -8% by the 2050s with strong variations among crops and regions. For instance evidence of yield reduction up to -40% are detected for some regions of Africa while no mean yield change is detected for rice in India. Variations in crop yield projections decrease when considering a large number of climate models confirming the relevance of the expanded use of multi-model ensembles of projections of future climate change adopted in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Conversely, variations in crop yield projections increase with the crop model complexity especially when using process-based crop models over statistical models. Such differences in crop yield variations may be attributed either to the structural differences between crop model approaches or to the spatial scale differences; biophysical crop models operating at finer spatial scales and thus reproducing the higher variability of impacts at these scales. Such robust evidence of future yield change in Africa and South Asia can be surprising in regards to the diverging projections in a warmer climate of summer monsoon rainfall, the primary driver for rainfed crop productivity in the region, especially in West Africa where some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts (Druyan 2011). This is because of the adverse role of higher temperatures in shortening the crop cycle duration and increasing evapotranspiration demand and thus reducing crop yields, irrespective of rainfall changes (Berg et al 2012, Roudier et al 2011, Schlenker and Lobell 2010). Potential wetter conditions or elevated CO2 concentrations hardly counteract the adverse effect of higher temperatures. Although such systematic reviews and meta-analyses conducted by Knox et al (2012), Müller et al (2011) or Roudier et al (2011) can provide important insights about sign, magnitude and uncertainty of climate change impacts, direct comparison among studies suffers from inevitable limitations. In particular the diversity of the studies selected for the meta-analysis, encompassing a range of different countries, scales, crops and methods (climate models and scenarios, crop models, downscaling technique), makes it difficult to aggregate crop yield projections to provide a consistent and precise impact assessment. A rigorous multi-ensembles approach, with varying climate models, emissions scenarios, crop models, and downscaling techniques, as recommended by Challinor et al (2007), would enable a move towards a more complete sampling of uncertainty in crop yield projections. In that sense, coordinated modeling experiments such as the ones conducted throughout the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org/) are likely to improve substantially the characterization of the threat of crop yield losses and food insecurity due to climate change. In spite of the threat of crop yield losses in a warmer climate, it is important to keep in mind, as discussed by Berg et al (2012), that developing countries in the tropics have the potential to more than offset such adverse impacts by implementing more intensive agricultural practices and adapting agriculture to climate and environmental change. Indeed Africa and in a lesser extend South Asia are among the only regions of the world where there is an untapped potential for raising agricultural productivity since poor soil fertility and low input levels, combined with extensive agricultural practices, contribute to a large gap between actual and potential yields (Licker et al 2010). References Beddington J 2010 Food security: contributions from science to a new and greener revolution Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365 61-71 Berg A, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Sultan B, Lengaigne N and Guimberteau M 2012 Projections of climate change impacts on potential crop productivity over tropical regions Agric. For. Meteorol. at press (doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.12.003) Challinor A, Wheeler T, Garforth C, Craufurd P and Kassam A 2007 Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change Clim. Change 83 381-99 Christensen J H et al 2007 Regional climate projections Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Collomb P 1999 A narrow road to food security from now to 2050 FAO Economica (Paris: FAO) Druyan L M 2011 Studies of 21st-century precipitation trends over West Africa Int. J. Climatol. 31 1415-572 Hansen J W 2002 Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges Agric. Syst. 74 309-30 Knox J, Hess T, Daccache A and Wheeler T 2012 Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia Environ. Res. Lett. 7 034032 Licker R, Johnston M, Foley J A, Barford C, Kucharik C J, Monfreda C and Ramankutty N 2010 Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the 'yield gap' of croplands around the world? Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 19 769-82 Müller C, Cramer W, Hare W L and Lotze-Campen H 2011 Climate change risks for African agriculture Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108 4313-5 Roudier P, Sultan S, Quirion P and Berg A 2011 The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: what does the recent literature say? Glob. Environ. Change 21 1073-83 Schlenker W and Lobell D 2010 Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture Environ. Res. Lett. 5 014010

Vulnerability of field crops to midcentury temperature changes and yield effects in the Southwestern USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increased temperatures in the Southwestern United States will impact future crop production via multiple pathways. We used four methods to provide an illustrative analysis of midcentury temperature impacts to eight field crops. By midcentury, cropland area thermally suitable for maize cultivation is...

Tuber and inulin production of Jerusalem artichoke (Helianthus tuberosus, L.) under salinity stress

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Salinization of soils and irrigation waters has increased soil salinity worldwide, and threaten to reduce crop yield. In the semiarid regions, fresh water scarcity demands salt- and drought-tolerant crops. Jerusalem artichoke (cv. Stampede), a North American crop with inulin-rich tubers, is a carb...

Effects of enhancing soil organic carbon sequestration in the topsoil by fertilization on crop productivity and stability: Evidence from long-term experiments with wheat-maize cropping systems in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Xubo; Sun, Nan; Wu, Lianhai; Xu, Minggang; Bingham, Ian J; Li, Zhongfang

2016-08-15

Although organic carbon sequestration in agricultural soils has been recommended as a 'win-win strategy' for mitigating climate change and ensuring food security, great uncertainty still remains in identifying the relationships between soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and crop productivity. Using data from 17 long-term experiments in China we determined the effects of fertilization strategies on SOC stocks at 0-20cm depth in the North, North East, North West and South. The impacts of changes in topsoil SOC stocks on the yield and yield stability of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) were determined. Results showed that application of inorganic fertilizers (NPK) plus animal manure over 20-30years significantly increased SOC stocks to 20-cm depth by 32-87% whilst NPK plus wheat/maize straw application increased it by 26-38% compared to controls. The efficiency of SOC sequestration differed between regions with 7.4-13.1% of annual C input into the topsoil being retained as SOC over the study periods. In the northern regions, application of manure had little additional effect on yield compared to NPK over a wide range of topsoil SOC stocks (18->50MgCha(-1)). In the South, average yield from manure applied treatments was 2.5 times greater than that from NPK treatments. Moreover, the yield with NPK plus manure increased until SOC stocks (20-cm depth) increased to ~35MgCha(-1). In the northern regions, yield stability was not increased by application of NPK plus manure compared to NPK, whereas in the South there was a significant improvement. We conclude that manure application and straw incorporation could potentially lead to SOC sequestration in topsoil in China, but beneficial effects of this increase in SOC stocks to 20-cm depth on crop yield and yield stability may only be achieved in the South. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of crop rotation on properties of a Vietnam clay soil under rice-based cropping systems in small-scale farmers' fields

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In tropical deltas, intensive monocultures with three rice crops per year have been the standard for decades. In recent years, though, rice-based rotations with one or more upland crops per year are being adopted by several farmers. Their trends of increasing grain yields raise the question whether ...

Bioenergy Sorghum Crop Model Predicts VPD-Limited Transpiration Traits Enhance Biomass Yield in Water-Limited Environments

PubMed Central

Truong, Sandra K.; McCormick, Ryan F.; Mullet, John E.

2017-01-01

Bioenergy sorghum is targeted for production in water-limited annual cropland therefore traits that improve plant water capture, water use efficiency, and resilience to water deficit are necessary to maximize productivity. A crop modeling framework, APSIM, was adapted to predict the growth and biomass yield of energy sorghum and to identify potentially useful traits for crop improvement. APSIM simulations of energy sorghum development and biomass accumulation replicated results from field experiments across multiple years, patterns of rainfall, and irrigation schemes. Modeling showed that energy sorghum's long duration of vegetative growth increased water capture and biomass yield by ~30% compared to short season crops in a water-limited production region. Additionally, APSIM was extended to enable modeling of VPD-limited transpiration traits that reduce crop water use under high vapor pressure deficits (VPDs). The response of transpiration rate to increasing VPD was modeled as a linear response until a VPD threshold was reached, at which the slope of the response decreases, representing a range of responses to VPD observed in sorghum germplasm. Simulation results indicated that the VPD-limited transpiration trait is most beneficial in hot and dry regions of production where crops are exposed to extended periods without rainfall during the season or to a terminal drought. In these environments, slower but more efficient transpiration increases biomass yield and prevents or delays the exhaustion of soil water and onset of leaf senescence. The VPD-limited transpiration responses observed in sorghum germplasm increased biomass accumulation by 20% in years with lower summer rainfall, and the ability to drastically reduce transpiration under high VPD conditions could increase biomass by 6% on average across all years. This work indicates that the productivity and resilience of bioenergy sorghum grown in water-limited environments could be further enhanced by development of genotypes with optimized VPD-limited transpiration traits and deployment of these crops in water limited growing environments. The energy sorghum model and VPD-limited transpiration trait implementation are made available to simulate performance in other target environments. PMID:28377779

Bioenergy Sorghum Crop Model Predicts VPD-Limited Transpiration Traits Enhance Biomass Yield in Water-Limited Environments.

PubMed

Truong, Sandra K; McCormick, Ryan F; Mullet, John E

2017-01-01

Bioenergy sorghum is targeted for production in water-limited annual cropland therefore traits that improve plant water capture, water use efficiency, and resilience to water deficit are necessary to maximize productivity. A crop modeling framework, APSIM, was adapted to predict the growth and biomass yield of energy sorghum and to identify potentially useful traits for crop improvement. APSIM simulations of energy sorghum development and biomass accumulation replicated results from field experiments across multiple years, patterns of rainfall, and irrigation schemes. Modeling showed that energy sorghum's long duration of vegetative growth increased water capture and biomass yield by ~30% compared to short season crops in a water-limited production region. Additionally, APSIM was extended to enable modeling of VPD-limited transpiration traits that reduce crop water use under high vapor pressure deficits (VPDs). The response of transpiration rate to increasing VPD was modeled as a linear response until a VPD threshold was reached, at which the slope of the response decreases, representing a range of responses to VPD observed in sorghum germplasm. Simulation results indicated that the VPD-limited transpiration trait is most beneficial in hot and dry regions of production where crops are exposed to extended periods without rainfall during the season or to a terminal drought. In these environments, slower but more efficient transpiration increases biomass yield and prevents or delays the exhaustion of soil water and onset of leaf senescence. The VPD-limited transpiration responses observed in sorghum germplasm increased biomass accumulation by 20% in years with lower summer rainfall, and the ability to drastically reduce transpiration under high VPD conditions could increase biomass by 6% on average across all years. This work indicates that the productivity and resilience of bioenergy sorghum grown in water-limited environments could be further enhanced by development of genotypes with optimized VPD-limited transpiration traits and deployment of these crops in water limited growing environments. The energy sorghum model and VPD-limited transpiration trait implementation are made available to simulate performance in other target environments.

Bioenergy sorghum crop model predicts VPD-limited transpiration traits enhance biomass yield in water-limited environments

DOE PAGES

Truong, Sandra K.; McCormick, Ryan F.; Mullet, John E.

2017-03-21

Bioenergy sorghum is targeted for production in water-limited annual cropland therefore traits that improve plant water capture, water use efficiency, and resilience to water deficit are necessary to maximize productivity. A crop modeling framework, APSIM, was adapted to predict the growth and biomass yield of energy sorghum and to identify potentially useful traits for crop improvement. APSIM simulations of energy sorghum development and biomass accumulation replicated results from field experiments across multiple years, patterns of rainfall, and irrigation schemes. Modeling showed that energy sorghum’s long duration of vegetative growth increased water capture and biomass yield by ~30% compared to shortmore » season crops in a water-limited production region. Additionally, APSIM was extended to enable modeling of VPD-limited transpiration traits that reduce crop water use under high vapor pressure deficits (VPDs). The response of transpiration rate to increasing VPD was modeled as a linear response until a VPD threshold was reached, at which the slope of the response decreases, representing a range of responses to VPD observed in sorghum germplasm. Simulation results indicated that the VPD-limited transpiration trait is most beneficial in hot and dry regions of production where crops are exposed to extended periods without rainfall during the season or to a terminal drought. In these environments, slower but more efficient transpiration increases biomass yield and prevents or delays the exhaustion of soil water and onset of leaf senescence. The VPD-limited transpiration responses observed in sorghum germplasm increased biomass accumulation by 20% in years with lower summer rainfall, and the ability to drastically reduce transpiration under high VPD conditions could increase biomass by 6% on average across all years. This work indicates that the productivity and resilience of bioenergy sorghum grown in water-limited environments could be further enhanced by development of genotypes with optimized VPD-limited transpiration traits and deployment of these crops in water limited growing environments. As a result, the energy sorghum model and VPD-limited transpiration trait implementation aremade available to simulate performance in other target environments.« less

Bioenergy sorghum crop model predicts VPD-limited transpiration traits enhance biomass yield in water-limited environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Truong, Sandra K.; McCormick, Ryan F.; Mullet, John E.

Bioenergy sorghum is targeted for production in water-limited annual cropland therefore traits that improve plant water capture, water use efficiency, and resilience to water deficit are necessary to maximize productivity. A crop modeling framework, APSIM, was adapted to predict the growth and biomass yield of energy sorghum and to identify potentially useful traits for crop improvement. APSIM simulations of energy sorghum development and biomass accumulation replicated results from field experiments across multiple years, patterns of rainfall, and irrigation schemes. Modeling showed that energy sorghum’s long duration of vegetative growth increased water capture and biomass yield by ~30% compared to shortmore » season crops in a water-limited production region. Additionally, APSIM was extended to enable modeling of VPD-limited transpiration traits that reduce crop water use under high vapor pressure deficits (VPDs). The response of transpiration rate to increasing VPD was modeled as a linear response until a VPD threshold was reached, at which the slope of the response decreases, representing a range of responses to VPD observed in sorghum germplasm. Simulation results indicated that the VPD-limited transpiration trait is most beneficial in hot and dry regions of production where crops are exposed to extended periods without rainfall during the season or to a terminal drought. In these environments, slower but more efficient transpiration increases biomass yield and prevents or delays the exhaustion of soil water and onset of leaf senescence. The VPD-limited transpiration responses observed in sorghum germplasm increased biomass accumulation by 20% in years with lower summer rainfall, and the ability to drastically reduce transpiration under high VPD conditions could increase biomass by 6% on average across all years. This work indicates that the productivity and resilience of bioenergy sorghum grown in water-limited environments could be further enhanced by development of genotypes with optimized VPD-limited transpiration traits and deployment of these crops in water limited growing environments. As a result, the energy sorghum model and VPD-limited transpiration trait implementation aremade available to simulate performance in other target environments.« less

Climate sensitivity of DSSAT under different agriculture practice scenarios in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, L.; Robock, A.

2014-12-01

Crop yields are sensitive to both agricultural practice and climate changes. Under different agricultural practice scenarios, crop yield may have different climate sensitivities. Since it is important to understand how future climate changes affect agriculture productivity and what the potential adaptation strategies would be to compensate for possible negative impacts on crop production, we performed experiments to study climate sensitivity under different agricultural practice scenarios for rice, maize and wheat in the top four production provinces in China using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model. The agricultural practice scenarios include four categories: different amounts of nitrogen fertilizer or no nitrogen stress; irrigation turned on or off, or no water stress; all possible seeds in the DSSAT cultivar data base; and different planting dates. For the climate sensitivity test, the control climate is from 1998 to 2007, and we individually modify four climate variables: daily maximum and minimum temperature by +2 °C and -2 °C, daily precipitation by +20% and -20%, and daily solar radiation by + 20% and -20%. With more nitrogen fertilizer applied, crops are more sensitive to temperature changes as well as precipitation changes because of their release from nitrogen limitation. With irrigation turned on, crop yield sensitivity to temperature decreases in most of the regions depending on the amount of the local precipitation, since more water is available and soil temperature varies less with higher soil moisture. Those results indicate that there could be possible agriculture adaptation strategies under certain future climate scenarios. For example, increasing nitrogen fertilizer usage by a certain amount might compensate for the negative impact on crop yield from climate changes. However, since crops are more sensitive to climate changes when there is more nitrogen fertilizer applied, if the climate changes are unfavorable to crop yields, increasing nitrogen fertilizer usage at certain levels might enhance the negative climate change impact. Enhanced nitrogen fertilizer use might have additional negative impacts on climate because of nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere, but those effects were not studied here.

Quantifying the Impact of Tropospheric Ozone on Crops Productivity at regional scale using JULES-crop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, F.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. It is causing significant crop production losses. Currently, O3 concentrations are projected to increase globally, which could have a significant impact on food security. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) is used here to quantify the impacts of tropospheric O3 on crop production at the regional scale until 2100. We evaluate JULES-crop against the Soybean Free-Air-Concentration-Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Experimental data from SoyFACE and various literature sources is used to calibrate the parameters for soybean and ozone damage parameters in soybean in JULES-crop. The calibrated model is then applied for a transient factorial set of JULES-crop simulations over 1960-2005. Simulated yield changes are attributed to individual environmental drivers, CO2, O3 and climate change, across regions and for different crops. A mixed scenario of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climatology and ozone are simulated to explore the implication of policy. The overall findings are that regions with high ozone concentration such as China and India suffer the most from ozone damage, soybean is more sensitive to O3 than other crops. JULES-crop predicts CO2 fertilisation would increase the productivity of vegetation. This effect, however, is masked by the negative impacts of tropospheric O3. Using data from FAO and JULES-crop estimated that ozone damage cost around 55.4 Billion USD per year on soybean. Irrigation improves the simulation of rice only, and it increases the relative ozone damage because drought can reduce the ozone from entering the plant stomata. RCP 8.5 scenario results in a high yield for all crops mainly due to the CO2 fertilisation effect. Mixed climate scenarios simulations suggest that RCP 8.5 CO2 concentration and RCP 2.6 O3 concentration result in the highest yield. Further works such as more crop FACE-O3 experiments and more Crop functional types in JULES are necessary. The model will thus contribute to a complete understanding of the impacts of climate change on food production. JULES will be later coupled with the Unified Model to quantify the impact of tropospheric O3 on crops productivity including feedbacks between the land-surface, atmospheric chemistry and climate change.

Effects of combined amendments on crop yield and cadmium uptake in two cadmium contaminated soils under rice-wheat rotation.

PubMed

Guo, Fuyu; Ding, Changfeng; Zhou, Zhigao; Huang, Gaoxiang; Wang, Xingxiang

2018-02-01

Soil cadmium (Cd) contamination in China has become a serious concern due to its high toxicity to human health through food chains. A pot experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of hydrated lime (L), hydroxyapatite (H) and organic fertilizer (F) alone or in combination to remedy a mild (DY) and a moderate (YX) Cd contaminated agricultural soil under rice-wheat rotation. Results showed that crops grain yield and Cd concentration, soil pH, CaCl 2 extractable Cd and Cd speciation were markedly affected by the amendments. In both cropping seasons, hydrated lime and hydroxyapatite significantly immobilized soil Cd, and hydroxyapatite, organic fertilizer significantly increased grain yield. Hydrated lime mainly increased soil carbonates bound Cd fractions resulted from 16.7% to 36.2% and from 16.8% to 28.3%, and hydroxyapatite increased Fe/Mn oxides Cd fractions from 19.3% to 33.4% and from 31.4% to 42.1% in the DY and YX soils, respectively; while organic fertilizer slightly increased soil exchangeable and organic matter bound Cd fractions. Besides, combined amendments contain alkaline materials and organic materials have the potential to decrease grain Cd and increase grain yield simultaneously. Therefore, in view of the effects of amendments on grain yield and Cd concentration, the cost as well as the potential benefits expected, combined amendments like hydrated lime + organic fertilizer, hydrated lime + hydroxyapatite + organic fertilizer are recommended in practical application. Mechanisms of Cd immobilization affected by amendments are mainly attributed to the changes in soil Cd availability and crops root uptake rather than internal translocation in plants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Agricultural Impacts: Robust uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rötter, Reimund P.

2014-04-01

An up-to-date synthesis of climate change impacts on crop yields shows that the bounds of uncertainty are increasing. So why do estimates of the effect of climate change on crop productivity differ so much?

Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania

PubMed Central

Tumbo, S. D.; Kihupi, N. I.; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B.

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly. PMID:28536708

Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania.

PubMed

Msongaleli, Barnabas M; Tumbo, S D; Kihupi, N I; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly.

[Effects of different tillage patterns on soil properties, maize yield and water use efficiency in Weibei Highland, China.

PubMed

Liu, Dan; Zhang, Xia; Li, Jun; Wang, Xu-Dong

2018-02-01

An eight-year field experiment of straw returning was conducted on dark loessial soil in Weibei Highland to investigate the effects of tillage patterns on soil aggregate, soil organic carbon (SOC), corn yield and soil water use efficiency (WUE). There were six tillage patterns, including conventional tillage (CT/CT), no-tillage (NT/NT), subsoiling tillage (ST/ST), no-tillage/subsoiling tillage (NT/ST), conventional tillage/no-tillage (CT/NT) and conventional tillage/subsoiling tillage (CT/ST). The results showed that compared with CT/CT, the patterns of NT/NT, ST/ST and the rotational tillage patterns (NT/ST, CT/NT and CT/ST) decreased the mean mass diameter of soil mechanical stable aggregate. The patterns of NT/NT, ST/ST and NT/ST increased the content of soil water-stable aggregate with the particle size >0.25 mm (WR 0.25 ) and their mean mass diameter, especially in the depth of 20-50 cm. These patterns reduced the proportion of aggregate destruction (PAD). Compared with CT/CT, the patterns of NT/ST, CT/NT, NT/NT and ST/ST increased the content of SOC in 0-10 cm soil layer. The content of SOC decreased as the increases of soil depth for all tillage patterns, but the decrease in SOC of three single tillage patterns (ST/ST, NT/NT and CT/CT) was larger than that of three rotational tillage patterns. Compared with CT/CT, the other five tillage patterns increased soil water storage in 0-200 cm soil profile, crop yield and WUE in maize. The yield and WUE in NT/ST pattern were significantly increased by 15.1% and 27.5%, respectively. Both corn yield and WUE were significantly and positively correlated with soil water storage in 0-200 cm soil profile in field during the cropping and fallow periods. Moreover, soil water storage during the cropping period was positively correlated with WR 0.25 , but negatively correlated with PAD in 0-50 cm soil layer. Particularly, maize yield, WUE and soil water storage during the cropping period were closely related to WR 0.25 in 20-50 cm soil layer and PAD. Both WUE and soil water storage during the cropping period was correlated with the SOC content in 0-10 cm soil layer. With respect to the soil properties, crop yield and WUE, the tillage pattern of NT/ST was the best stratety in dark loessial soil for spring maize growth in Weibei Highland.

Vertical farming increases lettuce yield per unit area compared to conventional horizontal hydroponics.

PubMed

Touliatos, Dionysios; Dodd, Ian C; McAinsh, Martin

2016-08-01

Vertical farming systems (VFS) have been proposed as an engineering solution to increase productivity per unit area of cultivated land by extending crop production into the vertical dimension. To test whether this approach presents a viable alternative to horizontal crop production systems, a VFS (where plants were grown in upright cylindrical columns) was compared against a conventional horizontal hydroponic system (HHS) using lettuce ( Lactuca sativa L . cv. "Little Gem") as a model crop. Both systems had similar root zone volume and planting density. Half-strength Hoagland's solution was applied to plants grown in perlite in an indoor controlled environment room, with metal halide lamps providing artificial lighting. Light distribution (photosynthetic photon flux density, PPFD) and yield (shoot fresh weight) within each system were assessed. Although PPFD and shoot fresh weight decreased significantly in the VFS from top to base, the VFS produced more crop per unit of growing floor area when compared with the HHS. Our results clearly demonstrate that VFS presents an attractive alternative to horizontal hydroponic growth systems and suggest that further increases in yield could be achieved by incorporating artificial lighting in the VFS.

How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Grassini, Patricio; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Adam, Myriam;

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

PubMed

Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Durand, Jean-Louis; Boote, Kenneth; Lizaso, Jon; Jones, James W; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Adam, Myriam; Baron, Christian; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Boogaard, Hendrik; Conijn, Sjaak; Corbeels, Marc; Deryng, Delphine; De Sanctis, Giacomo; Gayler, Sebastian; Grassini, Patricio; Hatfield, Jerry; Hoek, Steven; Izaurralde, Cesar; Jongschaap, Raymond; Kemanian, Armen R; Kersebaum, K Christian; Kim, Soo-Hyung; Kumar, Naresh S; Makowski, David; Müller, Christoph; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Pravia, Maria Virginia; Sau, Federico; Shcherbak, Iurii; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Timlin, Dennis; Waha, Katharina

2014-07-01

Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global Agriculture Yields and Conflict under Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rising, J.; Cane, M. A.

2013-12-01

Aspects of climate have been shown to correlate significantly with conflict. We investigate a possible pathway for these effects through changes in agriculture yields, as predicted by field crop models (FAO's AquaCrop and DSSAT). Using satellite and station weather data, and surveyed data for soil and management, we simulate major crop yields across all countries between 1961 and 2008, and compare these to FAO and USDA reported yields. Correlations vary by country and by crop, from approximately .8 to -.5. Some of this range in crop model performance is explained by crop varieties, data quality, and other natural, economic, and political features. We also quantify the ability of AquaCrop and DSSAT to simulate yields under past cycles of ENSO as a proxy for their performance under changes in climate. We then describe two statistical models which relate crop yields to conflict events from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict dataset. The first relates several preceding years of predicted yields of the major grain in each country to any conflict involving that country. The second uses the GREG ethnic group maps to identify differences in predicted yields between neighboring regions. By using variation in predicted yields to explain conflict, rather than actual yields, we can identify the exogenous effects of weather on conflict. Finally, we apply precipitation and temperature time-series under IPCC's A1B scenario to the statistical models. This allows us to estimate the scale of the impact of future yields on future conflict. Centroids of the major growing regions for each country's primary crop, based on USDA FAS consumption. Correlations between simulated yields and reported yields, for AquaCrop and DSSAT, under the assumption that no irrigation, fertilization, or pest control is used. Reported yields are the average of FAO yields and USDA FAS yields, where both are available.

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

2015-01-01

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Hydrological and sedimentation implications of landscape changes in a Himalayan catchment due to bioenergy cropping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remesan, Renji; Holman, Ian; Janes, Victoria

2015-04-01

There is a global effort to focus on the development of bioenergy and energy cropping, due to the generally increasing demand for crude oil, high oil price volatility and climate change mitigation challenges. Second generation energy cropping is expected to increase greatly in India as the Government of India has recently approved a national policy of 20 % biofuel blending by 2017; furthermore, the country's biomass based power generation potential is estimated as around ~24GW and large investments are expected in coming years to increase installed capacity. In this study, we have modelled the environmental influences (e.g.: hydrology and sediment) of scenarios of increased biodiesel cropping (Jatropha curcas) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in a northern Indian river basin. SWAT has been applied to the River Beas basin, using daily Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) meteorological data to simulate the river regime and crop yields. We have applied Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Ver. 2 (SUFI-2) to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the stream flow modelling. The model evaluation statistics for daily river flows at the Jwalamukhi and Pong gauges show good agreement with measured flows (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.70 and PBIAS of 7.54 %). The study has applied two land use change scenarios of (1) increased bioenergy cropping in marginal (grazing) lands in the lower and middle regions of catchment (2) increased bioenergy cropping in low yielding areas of row crops in the lower and middle regions of the catchment. The presentation will describe the improved understanding of the hydrological, erosion and sediment delivery and food production impacts arising from the introduction of a new cropping variety to a marginal area; and illustrate the potential prospects of bioenergy production in Himalayan valleys.

Soil Functional Zone Management: A Vehicle for Enhancing Production and Soil Ecosystem Services in Row-Crop Agroecosystems.

PubMed

Williams, Alwyn; Kane, Daniel A; Ewing, Patrick M; Atwood, Lesley W; Jilling, Andrea; Li, Meng; Lou, Yi; Davis, Adam S; Grandy, A Stuart; Huerd, Sheri C; Hunter, Mitchell C; Koide, Roger T; Mortensen, David A; Smith, Richard G; Snapp, Sieglinde S; Spokas, Kurt A; Yannarell, Anthony C; Jordan, Nicholas R

2016-01-01

There is increasing global demand for food, bioenergy feedstocks and a wide variety of bio-based products. In response, agriculture has advanced production, but is increasingly depleting soil regulating and supporting ecosystem services. New production systems have emerged, such as no-tillage, that can enhance soil services but may limit yields. Moving forward, agricultural systems must reduce trade-offs between production and soil services. Soil functional zone management (SFZM) is a novel strategy for developing sustainable production systems that attempts to integrate the benefits of conventional, intensive agriculture, and no-tillage. SFZM creates distinct functional zones within crop row and inter-row spaces. By incorporating decimeter-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity, SFZM attempts to foster greater soil biodiversity and integrate complementary soil processes at the sub-field level. Such integration maximizes soil services by creating zones of 'active turnover', optimized for crop growth and yield (provisioning services); and adjacent zones of 'soil building', that promote soil structure development, carbon storage, and moisture regulation (regulating and supporting services). These zones allow SFZM to secure existing agricultural productivity while avoiding or minimizing trade-offs with soil ecosystem services. Moreover, the specific properties of SFZM may enable sustainable increases in provisioning services via temporal intensification (expanding the portion of the year during which harvestable crops are grown). We present a conceptual model of 'virtuous cycles', illustrating how increases in crop yields within SFZM systems could create self-reinforcing feedback processes with desirable effects, including mitigation of trade-offs between yield maximization and soil ecosystem services. Through the creation of functionally distinct but interacting zones, SFZM may provide a vehicle for optimizing the delivery of multiple goods and services in agricultural systems, allowing sustainable temporal intensification while protecting and enhancing soil functioning.

Soil Functional Zone Management: A Vehicle for Enhancing Production and Soil Ecosystem Services in Row-Crop Agroecosystems

PubMed Central

Williams, Alwyn; Kane, Daniel A.; Ewing, Patrick M.; Atwood, Lesley W.; Jilling, Andrea; Li, Meng; Lou, Yi; Davis, Adam S.; Grandy, A. Stuart; Huerd, Sheri C.; Hunter, Mitchell C.; Koide, Roger T.; Mortensen, David A.; Smith, Richard G.; Snapp, Sieglinde S.; Spokas, Kurt A.; Yannarell, Anthony C.; Jordan, Nicholas R.

2016-01-01

There is increasing global demand for food, bioenergy feedstocks and a wide variety of bio-based products. In response, agriculture has advanced production, but is increasingly depleting soil regulating and supporting ecosystem services. New production systems have emerged, such as no-tillage, that can enhance soil services but may limit yields. Moving forward, agricultural systems must reduce trade-offs between production and soil services. Soil functional zone management (SFZM) is a novel strategy for developing sustainable production systems that attempts to integrate the benefits of conventional, intensive agriculture, and no-tillage. SFZM creates distinct functional zones within crop row and inter-row spaces. By incorporating decimeter-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity, SFZM attempts to foster greater soil biodiversity and integrate complementary soil processes at the sub-field level. Such integration maximizes soil services by creating zones of ‘active turnover’, optimized for crop growth and yield (provisioning services); and adjacent zones of ‘soil building’, that promote soil structure development, carbon storage, and moisture regulation (regulating and supporting services). These zones allow SFZM to secure existing agricultural productivity while avoiding or minimizing trade-offs with soil ecosystem services. Moreover, the specific properties of SFZM may enable sustainable increases in provisioning services via temporal intensification (expanding the portion of the year during which harvestable crops are grown). We present a conceptual model of ‘virtuous cycles’, illustrating how increases in crop yields within SFZM systems could create self-reinforcing feedback processes with desirable effects, including mitigation of trade-offs between yield maximization and soil ecosystem services. Through the creation of functionally distinct but interacting zones, SFZM may provide a vehicle for optimizing the delivery of multiple goods and services in agricultural systems, allowing sustainable temporal intensification while protecting and enhancing soil functioning. PMID:26904043

Effect of Weed Management and Seed Rate on Crop Growth under Direct Dry Seeded Rice Systems in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Sharif; Salim, Muhammad; Chauhan, Bhagirath S.

2014-01-01

Weeds are a major constraint to the success of dry-seeded rice (DSR). The main means of managing these in a DSR system is through chemical weed control using herbicides. However, the use of herbicides alone may not be sustainable in the long term. Approaches that aim for high crop competitiveness therefore need to be exploited. One such approach is the use of high rice seeding rates. Experiments were conducted in the aman (wet) seasons of 2012 and 2013 in Bangladesh to evaluate the effect of weed infestation level (partially-weedy and weed-free) and rice seeding rate (20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 kg ha−1) on weed and crop growth in DSR. Under weed-free conditions, higher crop yields (5.1 and 5.2 t ha−1 in the 2012 and 2013 seasons, respectively) were obtained at the seeding rate of 40 kg ha−1 and thereafter, yield decreased slightly beyond 40 kg seed ha−1. Under partially-weedy conditions, yield increased by 30 to 33% (2.0–2.2 and 2.9–3.2 t ha−1 in the 2012 and 2013 seasons, respectively) with increase in seeding rate from 20 to 100 kg ha−1. In the partially-weedy plots, weed biomass decreased by 41–60% and 54–56% at 35 days after sowing and at crop anthesis, respectively, when seeding rate increased from 20 to 100 kg ha−1. Results from our study suggest that increasing seeding rates in DSR can suppress weed growth and reduce grain yield losses from weed competition. PMID:25000520

Impact of crop rotation and soil amendments on long-term no-tilled soybean yields

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Continuous cropping systems without cover crops are perceived as unsustainable for long-term yield and soil health. To test this, cropping sequence and cover crop effects on soybean (Glycine max L.) yields were assessed. Main effects were 10 cropping sequences of soybean, corn (Zea mays L.), and co...

Heat and drought stresses in crops and approaches for their mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamaoui, Mouna; Jemo, Martin; Datla, Raju; Bekkaoui, Faouzi

2018-02-01

Drought and heat are major abiotic stresses that reduce crop productivity and weaken global food security, especially given the current and growing impacts of climate change and increases in the occurrence and severity of both stress factors. Plants have developed dynamic responses at the morphological, physiological and biochemical levels allowing them to escape and/or adapt to unfavourable environmental conditions. Nevertheless, even the mildest heat and drought stress negatively affects crop yield. Further, several independent studies have shown that increased temperature and drought can reduce crop yields by as much as 50%. Response to stress is complex and involves several factors including signaling, transcription factors, hormones, and secondary metabolites. The reproductive phase of development, leading to the grain production is shown to be more sensitive to heat stress in several crops. Advances coming from biotechnology including progress in genomics and information technology may mitigate the detrimental effects of heat and drought through the use of agronomic management practices and the development of crop varieties with increased productivity under stress. This review presents recent progress in key areas relevant to plant drought and heat tolerance. Furthermore, an overview and implications of physiological, biochemical and genetic aspects in the context of heat and drought are presented. Potential strategies to improve crop productivity are discussed.

Heat and Drought Stresses in Crops and Approaches for Their Mitigation.

PubMed

Lamaoui, Mouna; Jemo, Martin; Datla, Raju; Bekkaoui, Faouzi

2018-01-01

Drought and heat are major abiotic stresses that reduce crop productivity and weaken global food security, especially given the current and growing impacts of climate change and increases in the occurrence and severity of both stress factors. Plants have developed dynamic responses at the morphological, physiological and biochemical levels allowing them to escape and/or adapt to unfavorable environmental conditions. Nevertheless, even the mildest heat and drought stress negatively affects crop yield. Further, several independent studies have shown that increased temperature and drought can reduce crop yields by as much as 50%. Response to stress is complex and involves several factors including signaling, transcription factors, hormones, and secondary metabolites. The reproductive phase of development, leading to the grain production is shown to be more sensitive to heat stress in several crops. Advances coming from biotechnology including progress in genomics and information technology may mitigate the detrimental effects of heat and drought through the use of agronomic management practices and the development of crop varieties with increased productivity under stress. This review presents recent progress in key areas relevant to plant drought and heat tolerance. Furthermore, an overview and implications of physiological, biochemical and genetic aspects in the context of heat and drought are presented. Potential strategies to improve crop productivity are discussed.

Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Kenan; Yang, Xiaoguang; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen; Liu, Zhijuan; Lu, Shuo

2016-01-01

Understanding how changing climate and cultivars influence crop phenology and potential yield is essential for crop adaptation to future climate change. In this study, crop and daily weather data collected from six sites across the North China Plain were used to drive a crop model to analyze the impacts of climate change and cultivar development on the phenology and production of winter wheat from 1981 to 2005. Results showed that both the growth period (GP) and the vegetative growth period (VGP) decreased during the study period, whereas changes in the reproductive growth period (RGP) either increased slightly or had no significant trend. Although new cultivars could prolong the winter wheat phenology (0.3˜3.8 days per decade for GP), climate warming impacts were more significant and mainly accounted for the changes. The harvest index and kernel number per stem weight have significantly increased. Model simulation indicated that the yield of winter wheat exhibited increases (5.0˜19.4 %) if new cultivars were applied. Climate change demonstrated a negative effect on winter wheat yield as suggested by the simulation driven by climate data only (-3.3 to -54.8 kg ha-1 year-1, except for Lushi). Results of this study also indicated that winter wheat cultivar development can compensate for the negative effects of future climatic change.

Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain.

PubMed

Li, Kenan; Yang, Xiaoguang; Tian, Hanqin; Pan, Shufen; Liu, Zhijuan; Lu, Shuo

2016-01-01

Understanding how changing climate and cultivars influence crop phenology and potential yield is essential for crop adaptation to future climate change. In this study, crop and daily weather data collected from six sites across the North China Plain were used to drive a crop model to analyze the impacts of climate change and cultivar development on the phenology and production of winter wheat from 1981 to 2005. Results showed that both the growth period (GP) and the vegetative growth period (VGP) decreased during the study period, whereas changes in the reproductive growth period (RGP) either increased slightly or had no significant trend. Although new cultivars could prolong the winter wheat phenology (0.3∼3.8 days per decade for GP), climate warming impacts were more significant and mainly accounted for the changes. The harvest index and kernel number per stem weight have significantly increased. Model simulation indicated that the yield of winter wheat exhibited increases (5.0∼19.4%) if new cultivars were applied. Climate change demonstrated a negative effect on winter wheat yield as suggested by the simulation driven by climate data only (-3.3 to -54.8 kg ha(-1) year(-1), except for Lushi). Results of this study also indicated that winter wheat cultivar development can compensate for the negative effects of future climatic change.

Effects of two boron sources each applied at three rates to the strawberry cv. midway on soil and leaf boron levels and fruit yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blatt, C.R.

1982-01-01

Preplant applications of Borate -65 at 0.56, 1.12 and 2.24 kg B/ha were reflected in significant increases in soil and leaf B levels up to one year following boron application. After 2 cropping seasons soil B level did not reflect rate of applied B and Solubor was applied broadcast at 1.12, 2.24 and 4.48 kg B/ha in the spring of the 3rd cropping season. Soil and leaf B levels and leaf marginal necrosis increased compared with control plots at all rates of applied B at full bloom in the 3rd cropping season. Rate of applied B was reflected in significantmore » soil and leaf B increases one year following application. Fruit yields through four cropping seasons were not affected by any source of rate of applied B. A soil B range of 0.15-0.25 ppM and a leaf B range of 20-30 ppm will give optimum crop response from the Midway strawberry.« less

Barley (Hordeum vulgare) circadian clock genes can respond rapidly to temperature in an EARLY FLOWERING 3-dependent manner

PubMed Central

Ford, Brett; Deng, Weiwei; Clausen, Jenni; Oliver, Sandra; Boden, Scott; Hemming, Megan; Trevaskis, Ben

2016-01-01

An increase in global temperatures will impact future crop yields. In the cereal crops wheat and barley, high temperatures accelerate reproductive development, reducing the number of grains per plant and final grain yield. Despite this relationship between temperature and cereal yield, it is not clear what genes and molecular pathways mediate the developmental response to increased temperatures. The plant circadian clock can respond to changes in temperature and is important for photoperiod-dependent flowering, and so is a potential mechanism controlling temperature responses in cereal crops. This study examines the relationship between temperature, the circadian clock, and the expression of flowering-time genes in barley (Hordeum vulgare), a crop model for temperate cereals. Transcript levels of barley core circadian clock genes were assayed over a range of temperatures. Transcript levels of core clock genes CCA1, GI, PRR59, PRR73, PRR95, and LUX are increased at higher temperatures. CCA1 and PRR73 respond rapidly to a decrease in temperature whereas GI and PRR59 respond rapidly to an increase in temperature. The response of GI and the PRR genes to changes in temperature is lost in the elf3 mutant indicating that their response to temperature may be dependent on a functional ELF3 gene. PMID:27580625

Simulated crop yield in response to changes in climate and agricultural practices: results from a simple process based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldararu, S.; Smith, M. J.; Purves, D.; Emmott, S.

2013-12-01

Global agriculture will, in the future, be faced with two main challenges: climate change and an increase in global food demand driven by an increase in population and changes in consumption habits. To be able to predict both the impacts of changes in climate on crop yields and the changes in agricultural practices necessary to respond to such impacts we currently need to improve our understanding of crop responses to climate and the predictive capability of our models. Ideally, what we would have at our disposal is a modelling tool which, given certain climatic conditions and agricultural practices, can predict the growth pattern and final yield of any of the major crops across the globe. We present a simple, process-based crop growth model based on the assumption that plants allocate above- and below-ground biomass to maintain overall carbon optimality and that, to maintain this optimality, the reproductive stage begins at peak nitrogen uptake. The model includes responses to available light, water, temperature and carbon dioxide concentration as well as nitrogen fertilisation and irrigation. The model is data constrained at two sites, the Yaqui Valley, Mexico for wheat and the Southern Great Plains flux site for maize and soybean, using a robust combination of space-based vegetation data (including data from the MODIS and Landsat TM and ETM+ instruments), as well as ground-based biomass and yield measurements. We show a number of climate response scenarios, including increases in temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations as well as responses to irrigation and fertiliser application.

Weed interference with peppermint (Mentha x piperita L.) and spearmint (Mentha spicata L.) crops under different herbicide treatments: effects on biomass and essential oil yield.

PubMed

Karkanis, Anestis; Lykas, Christos; Liava, Vasiliki; Bezou, Anna; Petropoulos, Spyridon; Tsiropoulos, Nikolaos

2018-01-01

'Minor crops' such as spearmint and peppermint are high added value crops, despite the fact that their production area is comparably small worldwide. The main limiting factor in mint commercial cultivation is weed competition. Thus, field experiments were carried out to evaluate the effects of weed interference on growth, biomass and essential oil yield in peppermint and spearmint under different herbicide treatments. The application of pendimethalin and oxyfluorfen provided better control of annual weeds resulting in higher crop yield. Additionally, when treated with herbicides both crops were more competitive against annual weeds in the second year than in the first year. All pre-emergence herbicides increased biomass yield, since pendimethalin, linuron and oxyfluorfen reduced the density of annual weeds by 71-92%, 63-74% and 86-95%, respectively. Weed interference and herbicide application had no effect on essential oil content; however, a relatively strong impact on essential oil production per cultivated area unit was observed, mainly due to the adverse effect of weed interference on plant growth. Considering that pendimethalin and oxyfluorfen were effective against annual weeds in both spearmint and peppermint crops, these herbicides should be included in integrated weed management systems for better weed management in mint crops. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Statistical emulators of maize, rice, soybean and wheat yields from global gridded crop models

DOE PAGES

Blanc, Élodie

2017-01-26

This study provides statistical emulators of crop yields based on global gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project. The ensemble of simulations is used to build a panel of annual crop yields from five crop models and corresponding monthly summer weather variables for over a century at the grid cell level globally. This dataset is then used to estimate, for each crop and gridded crop model, the statistical relationship between yields, temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide. This study considers a new functional form to better capture the non-linear response of yields to weather,more » especially for extreme temperature and precipitation events, and now accounts for the effect of soil type. In- and out-of-sample validations show that the statistical emulators are able to replicate spatial patterns of yields crop levels and changes overtime projected by crop models reasonably well, although the accuracy of the emulators varies by model and by region. This study therefore provides a reliable and accessible alternative to global gridded crop yield models. By emulating crop yields for several models using parsimonious equations, the tools provide a computationally efficient method to account for uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.« less

Statistical emulators of maize, rice, soybean and wheat yields from global gridded crop models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanc, Élodie

This study provides statistical emulators of crop yields based on global gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project. The ensemble of simulations is used to build a panel of annual crop yields from five crop models and corresponding monthly summer weather variables for over a century at the grid cell level globally. This dataset is then used to estimate, for each crop and gridded crop model, the statistical relationship between yields, temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide. This study considers a new functional form to better capture the non-linear response of yields to weather,more » especially for extreme temperature and precipitation events, and now accounts for the effect of soil type. In- and out-of-sample validations show that the statistical emulators are able to replicate spatial patterns of yields crop levels and changes overtime projected by crop models reasonably well, although the accuracy of the emulators varies by model and by region. This study therefore provides a reliable and accessible alternative to global gridded crop yield models. By emulating crop yields for several models using parsimonious equations, the tools provide a computationally efficient method to account for uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.« less

The genetic and molecular basis of crop height based on a rice model.

PubMed

Liu, Fang; Wang, Pandi; Zhang, Xiaobo; Li, Xiaofei; Yan, Xiaohong; Fu, Donghui; Wu, Gang

2018-01-01

This review presents genetic and molecular basis of crop height using a rice crop model. Height is controlled by multiple genes with potential to be manipulated through breeding strategies to improve productivity. Height is an important factor affecting crop architecture, apical dominance, biomass, resistance to lodging, tolerance to crowding and mechanical harvesting. The impressive increase in wheat and rice yield during the 'green revolution' benefited from a combination of breeding for high-yielding dwarf varieties together with advances in agricultural mechanization, irrigation and agrochemical/fertilizer use. To maximize yield under irrigation and high fertilizer use, semi-dwarfing is optimal, whereas extreme dwarfing leads to decreased yield. Rice plant height is controlled by genes that lie in a complex regulatory network, mainly involved in the biosynthesis or signal transduction of phytohormones such as gibberellins, brassinosteroids and strigolactones. Additional dwarfing genes have been discovered that are involved in other pathways, some of which are uncharacterized. This review discusses our current understanding of the regulation of plant height using rice as a well-characterized model and highlights some of the most promising research that could lead to the development of new, high-yielding varieties. This knowledge underpins future work towards the genetic improvement of plant height in rice and other crops.

Enhanced yields and soil quality in a wheat-maize rotation using buried straw mulch.

PubMed

Guo, Zhibin; Liu, Hui; Wan, Shuixia; Hua, Keke; Jiang, Chaoqiang; Wang, Daozhong; He, Chuanlong; Guo, Xisheng

2017-08-01

Straw return may improve soil quality and crop yields. In a 2-year field study, a straw return method (ditch-buried straw return, DB-SR) was used to investigate the soil quality and crop productivity effects on a wheat-corn rotation system. This study consisted of three treatments, each with three replicates: (1) mineral fertilisation alone (CK0); (2) mineral fertilisation + 7500 kg ha -1 wheat straw incorporated at depth of 0-15 cm (NPKWS); and (3) mineral fertilisation + 7500 kg ha -1 wheat straw ditch buried at 15-30 cm (NPKDW). NPKWS and NPKDW enhanced crop yield and improved soil biotical properties compared to mineral fertilisation alone. NPKDW contributed to greater crop yields and soil nutrient availability at 15-30 cm depths, compared to NPKWS treatment. NPKDW enhanced soil microbial activity and bacteria species richness and diversity in the 0-15 cm layer. NPKWS increased soil microbial biomass, bacteria species richness and diversity at 15-30 cm. The comparison of the CK0 and NPKWS treatments indicates that a straw ditch buried by digging to the depth of 15-30 cm can improve crop yields and soil quality in a wheat-maize rotation system. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Food and fitness: associations between crop yields and life-history traits in a longitudinally monitored pre-industrial human population.

PubMed

Hayward, Adam D; Holopainen, Jari; Pettay, Jenni E; Lummaa, Virpi

2012-10-22

Severe food shortage is associated with increased mortality and reduced reproductive success in contemporary and historical human populations. Studies of wild animal populations have shown that subtle variation in environmental conditions can influence patterns of mortality, fecundity and natural selection, but the fitness implications of such subtle variation on human populations are unclear. Here, we use longitudinal data on local grain production, births, marriages and mortality so as to assess the impact of crop yield variation on individual age-specific mortality and fecundity in two pre-industrial Finnish populations. Although crop yields and fitness traits showed profound year-to-year variation across the 70-year study period, associations between crop yields and mortality or fecundity were generally weak. However, post-reproductive individuals of both sexes, and individuals of lower socio-economic status experienced higher mortality when crop yields were low. This is the first longitudinal, individual-based study of the associations between environmental variation and fitness traits in pre-industrial humans, which emphasizes the importance of a portfolio of mechanisms for coping with low food availability in such populations. The results are consistent with evolutionary ecological predictions that natural selection for resilience to food shortage is likely to weaken with age and be most severe on those with the fewest resources.

Yield and Economic Responses of Peanut to Crop Rotation Sequence

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Proper crop rotation is essential to maintaining high peanut yield and quality. However, the economic considerations of maintaining or altering crop rotation sequences must incorporate the commodity prices, production costs, and yield responses of all crops in, or potentially in, the crop rotation ...

Winter cover crops on processing tomato yield, quality, pest pressure, nitrogen availability, and profit margins.

PubMed

Belfry, Kimberly D; Trueman, Cheryl; Vyn, Richard J; Loewen, Steven A; Van Eerd, Laura L

2017-01-01

Much of cover crop research to date focuses on key indicators of impact without considering the implications over multiple years, in the absence of a systems-based approach. To evaluate the effect of three years of autumn cover crops on subsequent processing tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) production in 2010 and 2011, a field split-split-plot factorial design trial with effects of cover crop type, urea ammonium nitrate fertilizer rate (0 or 140 kg N ha-1 preplant broadcast incorporated) and tomato cultivar (early vs. late) was conducted. The main plot factor, cover crop, included a no cover crop control, oat (Avena sativa L.), winter cereal rye (hereafter referred to as rye) (Secale cereale L.), oilseed radish (OSR) (Raphanus sativus L. var. oleiferus Metzg Stokes), and mix of OSR and rye (OSR + rye) treatments. Cover crop biomass of 0.5 to 2.8 and 1.7 to 3.1 Mg ha-1 was attained in early Oct. and the following early May, respectively. In general, OSR increased soil mineral N during cover crop growth and into the succeeding summer tomato growing season, while the remaining cover crops did not differ from the no cover crop control. The lack of a cover crop by N rate interaction in soil and plant N analyses at harvest suggests that growers may not need to modify N fertilizer rates to tomatoes based on cover crop type. Processing tomato fruit quality at harvest (rots, insect or disease damage, Agtron colour, pH, or natural tomato soluble solids (NTSS)) was not affected by cover crop type. In both years, marketable yield in the no cover crop treatment was lower or not statistically different than all planted cover crops. Partial profit margins over both years were 1320 $ ha-1 higher with OSR and $960 higher with oat compared to the no cover crop control. Thus, results from a systems-based approach suggest that the cover crops tested had no observed negative impact on processing tomato production and have the potential to increase marketable yield and profit margins.

Winter cover crops on processing tomato yield, quality, pest pressure, nitrogen availability, and profit margins

PubMed Central

Belfry, Kimberly D.; Trueman, Cheryl; Vyn, Richard J.; Loewen, Steven A.; Van Eerd, Laura L.

2017-01-01

Much of cover crop research to date focuses on key indicators of impact without considering the implications over multiple years, in the absence of a systems-based approach. To evaluate the effect of three years of autumn cover crops on subsequent processing tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) production in 2010 and 2011, a field split-split-plot factorial design trial with effects of cover crop type, urea ammonium nitrate fertilizer rate (0 or 140 kg N ha-1 preplant broadcast incorporated) and tomato cultivar (early vs. late) was conducted. The main plot factor, cover crop, included a no cover crop control, oat (Avena sativa L.), winter cereal rye (hereafter referred to as rye) (Secale cereale L.), oilseed radish (OSR) (Raphanus sativus L. var. oleiferus Metzg Stokes), and mix of OSR and rye (OSR + rye) treatments. Cover crop biomass of 0.5 to 2.8 and 1.7 to 3.1 Mg ha-1 was attained in early Oct. and the following early May, respectively. In general, OSR increased soil mineral N during cover crop growth and into the succeeding summer tomato growing season, while the remaining cover crops did not differ from the no cover crop control. The lack of a cover crop by N rate interaction in soil and plant N analyses at harvest suggests that growers may not need to modify N fertilizer rates to tomatoes based on cover crop type. Processing tomato fruit quality at harvest (rots, insect or disease damage, Agtron colour, pH, or natural tomato soluble solids (NTSS)) was not affected by cover crop type. In both years, marketable yield in the no cover crop treatment was lower or not statistically different than all planted cover crops. Partial profit margins over both years were 1320 $ ha-1 higher with OSR and $960 higher with oat compared to the no cover crop control. Thus, results from a systems-based approach suggest that the cover crops tested had no observed negative impact on processing tomato production and have the potential to increase marketable yield and profit margins. PMID:28683080

Dependency of global primary bioenergy crop potentials in 2050 on food systems, yields, biodiversity conservation and political stability.

PubMed

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Plutzar, Christoph

2012-08-01

The future bioenergy crop potential depends on (1) changes in the food system (food demand, agricultural technology), (2) political stability and investment security, (3) biodiversity conservation, (4) avoidance of long carbon payback times from deforestation, and (5) energy crop yields. Using a biophysical biomass-balance model, we analyze how these factors affect global primary bioenergy potentials in 2050. The model calculates biomass supply and demand balances for eleven world regions, eleven food categories, seven food crop types and two livestock categories, integrating agricultural forecasts and scenarios with a consistent global land use and NPP database. The TREND scenario results in a global primary bioenergy potential of 77 EJ/yr, alternative assumptions on food-system changes result in a range of 26-141 EJ/yr. Exclusion of areas for biodiversity conservation and inaccessible land in failed states reduces the bioenergy potential by up to 45%. Optimistic assumptions on future energy crop yields increase the potential by up to 48%, while pessimistic assumptions lower the potential by 26%. We conclude that the design of sustainable bioenergy crop production policies needs to resolve difficult trade-offs such as food vs. energy supply, renewable energy vs. biodiversity conservation or yield growth vs. reduction of environmental problems of intensive agriculture.

Dependency of global primary bioenergy crop potentials in 2050 on food systems, yields, biodiversity conservation and political stability

PubMed Central

Erb, Karl-Heinz; Haberl, Helmut; Plutzar, Christoph

2012-01-01

The future bioenergy crop potential depends on (1) changes in the food system (food demand, agricultural technology), (2) political stability and investment security, (3) biodiversity conservation, (4) avoidance of long carbon payback times from deforestation, and (5) energy crop yields. Using a biophysical biomass-balance model, we analyze how these factors affect global primary bioenergy potentials in 2050. The model calculates biomass supply and demand balances for eleven world regions, eleven food categories, seven food crop types and two livestock categories, integrating agricultural forecasts and scenarios with a consistent global land use and NPP database. The TREND scenario results in a global primary bioenergy potential of 77 EJ/yr, alternative assumptions on food-system changes result in a range of 26–141 EJ/yr. Exclusion of areas for biodiversity conservation and inaccessible land in failed states reduces the bioenergy potential by up to 45%. Optimistic assumptions on future energy crop yields increase the potential by up to 48%, while pessimistic assumptions lower the potential by 26%. We conclude that the design of sustainable bioenergy crop production policies needs to resolve difficult trade-offs such as food vs. energy supply, renewable energy vs. biodiversity conservation or yield growth vs. reduction of environmental problems of intensive agriculture. PMID:23576836

Integrating remote sensing, geographic information system and modeling for estimating crop yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salazar, Luis Alonso

This thesis explores various aspects of the use of remote sensing, geographic information system and digital signal processing technologies for broad-scale estimation of crop yield in Kansas. Recent dry and drought years in the Great Plains have emphasized the need for new sources of timely, objective and quantitative information on crop conditions. Crop growth monitoring and yield estimation can provide important information for government agencies, commodity traders and producers in planning harvest, storage, transportation and marketing activities. The sooner this information is available the lower the economic risk translating into greater efficiency and increased return on investments. Weather data is normally used when crop yield is forecasted. Such information, to provide adequate detail for effective predictions, is typically feasible only on small research sites due to expensive and time-consuming collections. In order for crop assessment systems to be economical, more efficient methods for data collection and analysis are necessary. The purpose of this research is to use satellite data which provides 50 times more spatial information about the environment than the weather station network in a short amount of time at a relatively low cost. Specifically, we are going to use Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) based vegetation health (VH) indices as proxies for characterization of weather conditions.

Maize yield gaps caused by non-controllable, agronomic, and socioeconomic factors in a changing climate of Northeast China.

PubMed

Liu, Zhijuan; Yang, Xiaoguang; Lin, Xiaomao; Hubbard, Kenneth G; Lv, Shuo; Wang, Jing

2016-01-15

Closing the gap between current and potential yields is one means of increasing agricultural production to feed the globally increasing population. Therefore, investigation of the geographic patterns, trends and causes of crop yield gaps is essential to identifying where yields might be increased and quantifying the contributions of yield-limiting factors that may provide us potentials to enhance crop productivity. In this study, the changes in potential yields, attainable yields, potential farmers' yields, and actual farmers' yields during the past five decades in Northeast China (NEC) were investigated. Additionally the yield gaps caused by non-controllable, agronomic, and socioeconomic factors were determined. Over the period 1961 to 2010 the estimated regional area-weighted mean maize potential yield, attainable yield, and potential farmers' yield were approximately 12.3 t ha(-1), 11.5 t ha(-1), and 6.4 t ha(-1) which showed a decreasing tendency. The actual farmers' yield over NEC was 4.5 t ha(-1), and showed a tendency to increase (p<0.01) by 1.27 t ha(-1) per decade. The regional mean total yield gap (YGt), weighted by the area in each county dedicated to maize crop, was 64% of potential yield. Moreover, 8, 40, and 16% reductions in potential yields were due to non-controllable factors (YGI), agronomic factors (YGII), and socioeconomic factors (YGIII), respectively. Therefore, the exploitable yield gap, considered here as the difference between the potential yield and what one can expect considering non-controllable factors (i.e. YGt-YGI), of maize in NEC was about 56%. The regional area-weighted averages of YGt, and YGIII were found to have significant decreases of 11.0, and 10.7% per decade. At the time horizon 2010, the exploitable yield gaps were estimated to equal 36% of potential yield. This led to the conclusion that the yield gap could be deeply reduced by improving local agronomic management and controlling socioeconomic factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sustainable land management practices as providers of several ecosystem services under rainfed Mediterranean agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almagro, María; de Vente, Joris; Boix-Fayós, Carolina; García-Franco, Noelia; Melgares de Aguilar, Javier; González, David; Solé-Benet, Albert; Martínez-Mena, María

2015-04-01

Little is known about the multiple impacts of sustainable land management practices on soil and water conservation, carbon sequestration, mitigation of global warming, and crop yield productivity in semiarid Mediterranean agroecosystems. We hypothesized that a shift from intensive tillage to more conservative tillage management practices (reduced tillage optionally combined with green manure) leads to an improvement in soil structure and quality and will reduce soil erosion and enhance carbon sequestration in semiarid Mediterranean rainfed agroecosystems. To test the hypothesis, we assessed the effects of different tillage treatments (conventional (CT), reduced (RT), reduced tillage combined with green manure (RTG), and no tillage (NT)) on soil structure and soil water content, runoff and erosion control, soil CO2 emissions, crop yield and carbon sequestration in two semiarid agroecosystems with organic rainfed almond in the Murcia Region southeast Spain). It was found that reduction and suppression of tillage under almonds led to an increase in soil water content in both agroecosystems. Crop yields ranged from 775 to 1766 kg ha-1 between tillage 18 treatments, but we did not find a clear relation between soil water content and crop yield. RT and RTG treatments showed lower soil erosion rates and higher crop yields of almonds than under CT treatment. Overall, higher soil organic carbon contents and aggregate stability were observed under RTG treatment than under RT or CT treatment. It is concluded that conversion from CT to RTG is suitable to increase carbon inputs without enhancing soil CO2 emissions in semiarid Mediterranean agroecosystems.

Alternatives to Crop Insurance for Mitigating Hydrologic Risk in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, J. M.; Griffis, T. J.; Gorski, G.; Wood, J. D.

2015-12-01

Corn and soybean production in the Upper Mississippi River Basin can be limited by either excess or shortage of water, often in the same year within the same watershed. Most producers indemnify themselves against these hazards through the Federal crop insurance program, which is heavily subsidized, thus discouraging expenditures on other forms of risk mitigation. The cost is not trivial, amounting to more than 60 billion USD over the past 15 years. Examination of long-term precipitation and streamflow records at the 8-digit scale suggests that inter-annual hydrologic variability in the region is increasing, particularly in an area stretching from NW IL through much of IA and southern MN. Analysis of crop insurance statistics shows that these same watersheds exhibit the highest frequency of coincident claims for yield losses to both excess water and drought within the same year. An emphasis on development of water management strategies to increase landscape storage and subsequent reuse through supplemental irrigation in this region could reduce the cost of the crop insurance program and stabilize yield. However, we also note that analysis of yield data from USDA-NASS shows that interannual yield variability at the watershed scale is much more muted than the indemnity data suggest, indicating that adverse selection is probably a factor in the crop insurance marketplace. Consequently, we propose that hydrologic mitigation practices may be most cost-effective if they are carefully targeted, using topographic, soil, and meteorological data, in combination with more site-specificity in crop insurance data.

Recent decline in crop water productivity in the United States: a call to grow "more crop per drop"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, M. T.; Tu, K. P.; Thenkabail, P.; Brown, J. F.

2016-12-01

Irrigation for agriculture accounts for approximately 80 to 90% of U.S. consumptive water use. Recent declines in freshwater supply for irrigated agriculture in the western U.S. is particularly alarming, because climate change, water withdrawals from growing and competing sectors, and water pollution, are projected to put further strain on this vital sector. Innovative water management strategies are being proposed to combat this eminent water crisis and include: developing water markets, improving crop water productivity (CWP: "more crop per drop"), and coordinating the use of surface and groundwater supplies. The increase in CWP through crop type or variety selection is particularly lucrative, because it aims to increase the marketable yield of a crop, while reducing the cost of consumptive water use. Here we estimated CWP from 2000-2015 for the Contiguous United States over the primary growing season (mid May - late October) using a recently developed and validated light-use efficiency model for estimating crop yield and the transpiration component of the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory evapotranspiration model. The models were parameterized with daily DAYMET 1 km meteorological and 7-day EROS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer 250 m vegetation data. An analysis will be performed on CWP and its components to characterize the magnitude, direction, and persistence of trends. CWP estimates and trends will be overlaid with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Cropland Data Layer to rank major crops by water use versus marketable yield and to characterize intervention hotspots, respectively. County-level data on surface and ground water withdrawals for irrigated agriculture available through the U.S. Geological Survey will be used to further scrutinize emerging patterns. It is anticipated that over much of the irrigated areas of the western U.S. that persistent and decreasing trends in CWP for major water users (e.g. alfalfa) due to temperature-driven increases in atmospheric moisture demand or potential evapotranspiration will correspond to a decrease (increase) in surface (ground) water use for irrigation.

Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Holger; Zhao, Gang; Asseng, Senthold; Bindi, Marco; Biernath, Christian; Constantin, Julie; Coucheney, Elsa; Dechow, Rene; Doro, Luca; Eckersten, Henrik; Gaiser, Thomas; Grosz, Balázs; Heinlein, Florian; Kassie, Belay T.; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Klein, Christian; Kuhnert, Matthias; Lewan, Elisabet; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Raynal, Helene; Roggero, Pier P.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Siebert, Stefan; Specka, Xenia; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel; Weihermüller, Lutz; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Ewert, Frank

2016-01-01

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations. PMID:27055028

Impact of Spatial Soil and Climate Input Data Aggregation on Regional Yield Simulations.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Holger; Zhao, Gang; Asseng, Senthold; Bindi, Marco; Biernath, Christian; Constantin, Julie; Coucheney, Elsa; Dechow, Rene; Doro, Luca; Eckersten, Henrik; Gaiser, Thomas; Grosz, Balázs; Heinlein, Florian; Kassie, Belay T; Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian; Klein, Christian; Kuhnert, Matthias; Lewan, Elisabet; Moriondo, Marco; Nendel, Claas; Priesack, Eckart; Raynal, Helene; Roggero, Pier P; Rötter, Reimund P; Siebert, Stefan; Specka, Xenia; Tao, Fulu; Teixeira, Edmar; Trombi, Giacomo; Wallach, Daniel; Weihermüller, Lutz; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Ewert, Frank

2016-01-01

We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations.

Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Müller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Conway, Declan; Ruane, Alex C.; Gerten, Dieter; Jones, James W.; Khabarov, Nikolay; Olin, Stefan; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schmid, Erwin; Yang, Hong; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2016-08-01

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments and global crop models to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated [CO2] and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find CO2 effects increase global CWP by 10[047]%-27[737]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rainfed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated [CO2] could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4-17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modelling the effects of rising [CO2] across crop and hydrological modelling communities.

Regional Disparities in the Beneficial Effects of Rising CO2 Emissions on Crop Water Productivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Meuller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Conway, Declan; Ruane, Alex C.; Gerten, Dieter; Jones, James W.;

Increasing productivity by matching farming system management and genotype in water-limited environments.

PubMed

Kirkegaard, J A; Hunt, J R

2010-10-01

Improvements in water productivity and yield arise from interactions between varieties (G) and their management (M). Most G×M interactions considered by breeders and physiologists focus on in-crop management (e.g. sowing time, plant density, N management). However, opportunities exist to capture more water and use it more effectively that involve judicious management of prior crops and fallows (e.g. crop sequence, weed control, residue management). The dry-land wheat production system of southern Australia, augmented by simulation studies, is used to demonstrate the relative impacts and interactions of a range of pre-crop and in-crop management decisions on water productivity. A specific case study reveals how a novel genetic trait, long coleoptiles that enable deeper sowing, can interact with different management options to increase the water-limited yield of wheat from 1.6 t ha(-1) to 4.5 t ha(-1), reflecting the experience of leading growers. Understanding such interactions will be necessary to capture benefits from new varieties within the farming systems of the future.

Integrated crop pollination: Combining strategies to ensure stable and sustainable yields of pollination-dependent crops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Meeting the nutritional needs of our growing human population will be increasingly dependent on bees and other pollinators that provide the essential delivery of pollen to crop flowers during bloom. Honey bees have experienced population declines in some regions, and similar changes are evident for ...

Short-term winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cover crop grazing influence on calf growth, grain yield, and soil properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Winter cover cropping has many agronomic benefits and can provide forages base for spring livestock grazing. Winter cover crop grazing has shown immediate economic benefits through increased animal production. Winter wheat pasture grazing is common in beef cow-calf production and stocker operations....

Water savings of redistributing global crop production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Kyle; Seveso, Antonio; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

2016-04-01

Human demand for crop production is expected to increase substantially in the coming decades as a result of population growth, richer diets and biofuel use. For food production to keep pace, unprecedented amounts of resources - water, fertilizers, energy - will be required. This has led to calls for 'sustainable intensification' in which yields are increased on existing croplands while seeking to minimize impacts on water and other agricultural resources. Recent studies have quantified aspects of this, showing that there is a large potential to improve crop yields and increase harvest frequencies to better meet human demand. Though promising, both solutions would necessitate large additional inputs of water and fertilizer in order to be achieved under current technologies. However, the question of whether the current distribution of crops is, in fact, the best for realizing maximized production has not been considered to date. To this end, we ask: Is it possible to minimize water demand by simply growing crops where soil and climate conditions are best suited? Here we use maps of agro-ecological suitability - a measure of physical and chemical soil fertility - for 15 major food crops to identify differences between current crop distributions and where they can most suitably be planted. By redistributing crops across currently cultivated lands, we determine what distribution of crops would maintain current calorie production and agricultural value while minimizing the water demand of crop production. In doing this, our study provides a novel tool for policy makers and managers to integrate food security, environmental sustainability, and rural livelihoods by improving the use of freshwater resources without compromising crop calorie production or rural livelihoods.

Crop yield responses to a hardwood biochar across varied soils and climate conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biochars applied to soil for crop yield improvements have produced mixed results. The assorted crop yield responses may be linked to employing biochars with diverse chemical and physical characteristics. To clarify if biochars can improve crop yields, it may be prudent to evaluate one biochar type...

How does spatial and temporal resolution of vegetation index impact crop yield estimation?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Timely and accurate estimation of crop yield before harvest is critical for food market and administrative planning. Remote sensing data have long been used in crop yield estimation for decades. The process-based approach uses light use efficiency model to estimate crop yield. Vegetation index (VI) ...

Multigene manipulation of photosynthetic carbon assimilation increases CO2 fixation and biomass yield in tobacco

PubMed Central

Simkin, Andrew J.; McAusland, Lorna; Headland, Lauren R.; Lawson, Tracy; Raines, Christine A.

2015-01-01

Over the next 40 years it has been estimated that a 50% increase in the yield of grain crops such as wheat and rice will be required to meet the food and fuel demands of the increasing world population. Transgenic tobacco plants have been generated with altered combinations of sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase, fructose-1,6-bisphosphate aldolase, and the cyanobacterial putative-inorganic carbon transporter B, ictB, of which have all been identified as targets to improve photosynthesis based on empirical studies. It is shown here that increasing the levels of the three proteins individually significantly increases the rate of photosynthetic carbon assimilation, leaf area, and biomass yield. Furthermore, the daily integrated measurements of photosynthesis showed that mature plants fixed between 12–19% more CO2 than the equivalent wild-type plants. Further enhancement of photosynthesis and yield was observed when sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase, fructose-1,6-bisphosphate aldolase, and ictB were over-expressed together in the same plant. These results demonstrate the potential for the manipulation of photosynthesis, using multigene-stacking approaches, to increase crop yields. PMID:25956882

Catch crops as universal and effective method for reducing nitrogen leaching loss in spring cereal production: A meta-analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valkama, Elena; Lemola, Riitta; Känkänen, Hannu; Turtola, Eila

2016-04-01

Sustainable farms produce adequate amounts of a high-quality product, protect their resources and are both environmentally friendly and economically profitable. Nitrogen (N) fertilization decisively influences the cereal yields as well as increases soil N balance (N input in fertilizer - N output in harvested yield), thereby leading to N losses to the environment. However, while N input reduction affects soil N balance, such approach would markedly reduce N leaching loss only in case of abnormally high N balances. As an alternative approach, the growing of catch crops aims to prevent nutrient leaching in autumn after harvest and during the following winter, but due to competition, catch crops may also reduce yields of the main crop. Although studies have explored the environmental effects of catch crops in cereal production in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway) during the past 40 years, none has yet carried out a meta-analysis. We quantitatively summarized 35 studies on the effect of catch crops (non-legume and legume) undersown in spring cereals on N leaching loss or its risk as estimated by the content of soil nitrate N or its sum with ammonium in late autumn. The meta-analysis also included the grain yield and N content of spring cereals. To identify sources of variation, we studied the effects of soil texture and management (ploughing time, the amount of N applied, fertilizer type), as well as climatic (annual precipitation) and experimental conditions (duration of experiments, lysimeter vs. field experiments). Finally, we examined whether the results differed between the countries or over the decades. Compared to control groups with no catch crops, non-legume catch crops, mainly ryegrass species, reduced N leaching loss by 50% on average, and soil nitrate N or inorganic N by 35% in autumn. Italian ryegrass depleted soil N more effectively (by 60%) than did perennial ryegrass or Westerwolds ryegrass (by 25%). In contrast, legumes (white and red clovers) did not diminish the risk for N leaching. Otherwise, the effect on N leaching and its risk were consistent across the studies conducted in different countries on clay and coarse-textured mineral soils with different ploughing times, N fertilization rates (50-160 kg/ ha), and amounts of annual precipitation (480-1040 mm). Non-legume catch crops reduced grain yield by 3% with no changes in grain N content. In contrast, legumes and mixed catch crops increased both grain yield and grain N content by 6%. In spring cereal production, undersown non-legume catch crops are deemed a universal and effective method for reducing N leaching loss across the various soils, management practices and weather conditions in the Nordic countries. The environmental benefits of using non-legume catch crops appear considerable compared to the adverse reduction in grain yields, amounting to only a few percent. Catch crops are advisable for fields at high risk for N leaching (e.g., sandy soils or soils and crops requiring high N fertilization).

Increased Productivity of a Cover Crop Mixture Is Not Associated with Enhanced Agroecosystem Services

PubMed Central

Smith, Richard G.; Atwood, Lesley W.; Warren, Nicholas D.

2014-01-01

Cover crops provide a variety of important agroecological services within cropping systems. Typically these crops are grown as monocultures or simple graminoid-legume bicultures; however, ecological theory and empirical evidence suggest that agroecosystem services could be enhanced by growing cover crops in species-rich mixtures. We examined cover crop productivity, weed suppression, stability, and carryover effects to a subsequent cash crop in an experiment involving a five-species annual cover crop mixture and the component species grown as monocultures in SE New Hampshire, USA in 2011 and 2012. The mean land equivalent ratio (LER) for the mixture exceeded 1.0 in both years, indicating that the mixture over-yielded relative to the monocultures. Despite the apparent over-yielding in the mixture, we observed no enhancement in weed suppression, biomass stability, or productivity of a subsequent oat (Avena sativa L.) cash crop when compared to the best monoculture component crop. These data are some of the first to include application of the LER to an analysis of a cover crop mixture and contribute to the growing literature on the agroecological effects of cover crop diversity in cropping systems. PMID:24847902

Productivity and nutrient cycling in bioenergy cropping systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heggenstaller, Andrew Howard

One of the greatest obstacles confronting large-scale biomass production for energy applications is the development of cropping systems that balance the need for increased productive capacity with the maintenance of other critical ecosystem functions including nutrient cycling and retention. To address questions of productivity and nutrient dynamics in bioenergy cropping systems, we conducted two sets of field experiments during 2005-2007, investigating annual and perennial cropping systems designed to generate biomass energy feedstocks. In the first experiment we evaluated productivity and crop and soil nutrient dynamics in three prototypical bioenergy double-crop systems, and in a conventionally managed sole-crop corn system. Double-cropping systems included fall-seeded forage triticale (x Triticosecale Wittmack), succeeded by one of three summer-adapted crops: corn (Zea mays L.), sorghum-sudangrass [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench], or sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea L.). Total dry matter production was greater for triticale/corn and triticale/sorghum-sudangrass compared to sole-crop corn. Functional growth analysis revealed that photosynthetic duration was more important than photosynthetic efficiency in determining biomass productivity of sole-crop corn and double-crop triticale/corn, and that greater yield in the tiritcale/corn system was the outcome of photosynthesis occurring over an extended duration. Increased growth duration in double-crop systems was also associated with reductions in potentially leachable soil nitrogen relative to sole-crop corn. However, nutrient removal in harvested biomass was also greater in the double-crop systems, indicating that over the long-term, double-cropping would mandate increased fertilizer inputs. In a second experiment we assessed the effects of N fertilization on biomass and nutrient partitioning between aboveground and belowground crop components, and on carbon storage by four perennial, warm-season grasses: big bluestem (Andropogon geradii Vitman), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), indiangrass [ Sorghastrum nutans (L.) Nash], and eastern gamagrass (Tripsacum dactyloides L.). Generally, the optimum rate of fertilization for biomass yield by the grasses was 140 kg N ha-1. Nitrogen inputs also had pronounced but grass-specific effects on biomass and nutrient partitioning, and on carbon storage. For big bluestem and switchgrass, 140 kg N ha -1. maximized root biomass, favored allocation of nutrients to roots over shoots, and led to net increases in carbon storage over the study duration. In contrast, for indiangrass and eastern gamagrass, root biomass and root nutrient allocation were generally adversely affected by N fertilization and carbon storage increased only with 0 or 65 kg N ha-1. For all grasses, 220 kg N ha -1 tended to shift allocation of nutrients to shoots over roots and resulted in no net increase in carbon storage. Optimal nitrogen management strategies for perennial, warm-season grass energy crops should take into consideration the effects of N on biomass yield as well as factors such as nutrient and carbon balance that will also impact economic feasibility and environmental sustainability.

Extractable pool of biochar controls on crop productivity rather than greenhouse gas emission from a rice paddy under rice-wheat rotation.

PubMed

Korai, Punhoon Khan; Xia, Xin; Liu, Xiaoyu; Bian, Rongjun; Omondi, Morris Oduor; Nahayo, Alphonse; Pan, Genxing

2018-01-16

The role of extractable pool of biochar in crop productivity and soil greenhouse gas (GHGs) emission is not yet clear. In this study, two biochars with and without extraction was added to a paddy before rice transplantation at 20 t·ha -1 . Crop yield, plant traits and greenhouse gas emission monitored throughout a rice-wheat rotation. Between the biochar treatments, changes in bulk density and microbial biomass carbon were insignificant. However, the increase in organic carbon was similar between maize and wheat biochars while higher under bulk wheat biochar than extracted one. The increase in available P and K was higher under wheat than maize biochar regardless of extraction. Moreover, the increase in plant traits and grain yield, in rice season only, was higher under bulk than extracted biochars. Yet, there was no difference in changes in GHGs emission between bulk and extracted biochars regardless of feedstock. Nevertheless, increased methane emission for rice season was lower under extracted biochars than bulk ones. Overall, crop productivity rather than GHGs emission was affected by treatment of extraction of biochars. Thus, use of unextracted biochar is recommended for improving soil crop productivity in the paddy soils.

Response of double cropping suitability to climate change in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seifert, Christopher A.; Lobell, David B.

2015-02-01

In adapting US agriculture to the climate of the 21st century, a key unknown is whether cropping frequency may increase, helping to offset projected negative yield impacts in major production regions. Combining daily weather data and crop phenology models, we find that cultivated area in the US suited to dryland winter wheat-soybeans, the most common double crop (DC) system, increased by up to 28% from 1988 to 2012. Changes in the observed distribution of DC area over the same period agree well with this suitability increase, evidence consistent with climate change playing a role in recent DC expansion in phenologically constrained states. We then apply the model to projections of future climate under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios and estimate an additional 126-239% increase, respectively, in DC area. Sensitivity tests reveal that in most instances, increases in mean temperature are more important than delays in fall freeze in driving increased DC suitability. The results suggest that climate change will relieve phenological constraints on wheat-soy DC systems over much of the United States, though it should be recognized that impacts on corn and soybean yields in this region are expected to be negative and larger in magnitude than the 0.4-0.75% per decade benefits we estimate here for double cropping.

Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; Reynolds, M. P.; Alderman, P. D.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; de Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ruane, A. C.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P. J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.

2015-02-01

Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.;

Glyphosate Effects on Plant Mineral Nutrition, Crop Rhizosphere Microbiota, and Plant Disease in Glyphosate-Resistant Crops

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Claims have been made recently that glyphosate-resistant (GR) crops sometimes have mineral deficiencies and increased plant disease. This review evaluates the literature that is germane to these claims. Our conclusions are: (1) although there is conflicting literature on the effects of glyphosate on mineral nutrition on GR crops, most of the literature indicates that mineral nutrition in GR crops is not affected by either the GR trait or by application of glyphosate; (2) most of the available data support the view that neither the GR transgenes nor glyphosate use in GR crops increases crop disease; and (3) yield data on GR crops do not support the hypotheses that there are substantive mineral nutrition or disease problems that are specific to GR crops. PMID:23013354

Airborne and ground-based remote sensing for the estimation of evapotranspiration and yield of bean, potato, and sugar beet crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayanthi, Harikishan

The focus of this research was two-fold: (1) extend the reflectance-based crop coefficient approach to non-grain (potato and sugar beet), and vegetable crops (bean), and (2) develop vegetation index (VI)-yield statistical models for potato and sugar beet crops using high-resolution aerial multispectral imagery. Extensive crop biophysical sampling (leaf area index and aboveground dry biomass sampling) and canopy reflectance measurements formed the backbone of developing of canopy reflectance-based crop coefficients for bean, potato, and sugar beet crops in this study. Reflectance-based crop coefficient equations were developed for the study crops cultivated in Kimberly, Idaho, and subsequently used in water availability simulations in the plant root zone during 1998 and 1999 seasons. The simulated soil water profiles were compared with independent measurements of actual soil water profiles in the crop root zone in selected fields. It is concluded that the canopy reflectance-based crop coefficient technique can be successfully extended to non-grain crops as well. While the traditional basal crop coefficients generally expect uniform growth in a region the reflectance-based crop coefficients represent the actual crop growth pattern (in less than ideal water availability conditions) in individual fields. Literature on crop canopy interactions with sunlight states that there is a definite correspondence between leaf area index progression in the season and the final yield. In case of crops like potato and sugar beet, the yield is influenced not only on how early and how quickly the crop establishes its canopy but also on how long the plant stands on the ground in a healthy state. The integrated area under the crop growth curve has shown excellent correlations with hand-dug samples of potato and sugar beet crops in this research. Soil adjusted vegetation index-yield models were developed, and validated using multispectral aerial imagery. Estimated yield images were compared with the actual yields extracted from the ground. The remote sensing-derived yields compared well with the actual yields sampled on the ground. This research has highlighted the importance of the date of spectral emergence, the need to know the duration for which the crops stand on the ground, and the need to identify critical periods of time when multispectral coverages are essential for reliable tuber yield estimation.

Responses of Wheat Yield, Macro- and Micro-Nutrients, and Heavy Metals in Soil and Wheat following the Application of Manure Compost on the North China Plain.

PubMed

Wang, Fan; Wang, Zhaohui; Kou, Changlin; Ma, Zhenghua; Zhao, Dong

2016-01-01

The recycling of livestock manure in cropping systems is considered to enhance soil fertility and crop productivity. However, there have been no systematic long-term studies of the effects of manure application on soil and crop macro- and micro-nutrients, heavy metals, and crop yields in China, despite their great importance for sustainable crop production and food safety. Thus, we conducted field experiments in a typical cereal crop production area of the North China Plain to investigate the effects of compost manure application rates on wheat yield, as well as on the macro-/micro-nutrients and heavy metals contents of soil and wheat. We found that compost application increased the soil total N and the available K, Fe, Zn, and Mn concentrations, whereas the available P in soil was not affected, and the available Cu decreased. In general, compost application had no significant effects on the grain yield, biomass, and harvest index of winter wheat. However, during 2012 and 2013, the N concentration decreased by 9% and 18% in straw, and by 16% and 12% in grain, respectively. With compost application, the straw P concentration only increased in 2012 but the grain P generally increased, while the straw K concentration tended to decrease and the grain K concentration increased in 2013. Compost application generally increased the Fe and Zn concentrations in straw and grain, whereas the Cu and Mn concentrations decreased significantly compared with the control. The heavy metal concentrations increased at some compost application rates, but they were still within the safe range. The balances of the macro-and micro-nutrients indicated that the removal of nutrients by wheat was compensated for by the addition of compost, whereas the level of N decreased without the application of compost. The daily intake levels of micronutrients via the consumption of wheat grain were still lower than the recommended levels when sheep manure compost was applied, except for that of Mn.

Responses of Wheat Yield, Macro- and Micro-Nutrients, and Heavy Metals in Soil and Wheat following the Application of Manure Compost on the North China Plain

PubMed Central

Wang, Fan; Wang, Zhaohui; Kou, Changlin; Ma, Zhenghua; Zhao, Dong

2016-01-01

The recycling of livestock manure in cropping systems is considered to enhance soil fertility and crop productivity. However, there have been no systematic long-term studies of the effects of manure application on soil and crop macro- and micro-nutrients, heavy metals, and crop yields in China, despite their great importance for sustainable crop production and food safety. Thus, we conducted field experiments in a typical cereal crop production area of the North China Plain to investigate the effects of compost manure application rates on wheat yield, as well as on the macro-/micro-nutrients and heavy metals contents of soil and wheat. We found that compost application increased the soil total N and the available K, Fe, Zn, and Mn concentrations, whereas the available P in soil was not affected, and the available Cu decreased. In general, compost application had no significant effects on the grain yield, biomass, and harvest index of winter wheat. However, during 2012 and 2013, the N concentration decreased by 9% and 18% in straw, and by 16% and 12% in grain, respectively. With compost application, the straw P concentration only increased in 2012 but the grain P generally increased, while the straw K concentration tended to decrease and the grain K concentration increased in 2013. Compost application generally increased the Fe and Zn concentrations in straw and grain, whereas the Cu and Mn concentrations decreased significantly compared with the control. The heavy metal concentrations increased at some compost application rates, but they were still within the safe range. The balances of the macro-and micro-nutrients indicated that the removal of nutrients by wheat was compensated for by the addition of compost, whereas the level of N decreased without the application of compost. The daily intake levels of micronutrients via the consumption of wheat grain were still lower than the recommended levels when sheep manure compost was applied, except for that of Mn. PMID:26771517

Plausible rice yield losses under future climate warming.

PubMed

Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Huang, Yao; Ciais, Philippe; Elliott, Joshua; Huang, Mengtian; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lian, Xu; Liu, Yongwen; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-12-19

Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the world's population 1-3 . Reliable prediction of changes in rice yield is thus central for maintaining global food security. This is an extraordinary challenge. Here, we compare the sensitivity of rice yield to temperature increase derived from field warming experiments and three modelling approaches: statistical models, local crop models and global gridded crop models. Field warming experiments produce a substantial rice yield loss under warming, with an average temperature sensitivity of -5.2 ± 1.4% K -1 . Local crop models give a similar sensitivity (-6.3 ± 0.4% K -1 ), but statistical and global gridded crop models both suggest less negative impacts of warming on yields (-0.8 ± 0.3% and -2.4 ± 3.7% K -1 , respectively). Using data from field warming experiments, we further propose a conditional probability approach to constrain the large range of global gridded crop model results for the future yield changes in response to warming by the end of the century (from -1.3% to -9.3% K -1 ). The constraint implies a more negative response to warming (-8.3 ± 1.4% K -1 ) and reduces the spread of the model ensemble by 33%. This yield reduction exceeds that estimated by the International Food Policy Research Institute assessment (-4.2 to -6.4% K -1 ) (ref. 4). Our study suggests that without CO 2 fertilization, effective adaptation and genetic improvement, severe rice yield losses are plausible under intensive climate warming scenarios.

Decadal analysis of impact of future climate on wheat production in dry Mediterranean environment: A case of Jordan.

PubMed

Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto; Al Khatib, Amal N; Allouzi, Siham F

2018-01-01

Different aspects of climate change, such as increased temperature, changed rainfall and higher atmospheric CO 2 concentration, all have different effects on crop yields. Process-based crop models are the most widely used tools for estimating future crop yield responses to climate change. We applied APSIM crop simulation model in a dry Mediterranean climate with Jordan as sentinel site to assess impact of climate change on wheat production at decadal level considering two climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) viz., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Impact of climatic variables alone was negative on grain yield but this adverse effect was negated when elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were also considered in the simulations. Crop cycle of wheat was reduced by a fortnight for RCP4.5 scenario and by a month for RCP8.5 scenario at the approach of end of the century. On an average, a grain yield increase of 5 to 11% in near future i.e., 2010s-2030s decades, 12 to 16% in mid future i.e., 2040s-2060s decades and 9 to 16% in end of century period can be expected for moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and 6 to 15% in near future, 13 to 19% in mid future and 7 to 20% increase in end of century period for a drastic climate change scenario (RCP8.5) based on different soils. Positive impact of elevated CO 2 is more pronounced in soils with lower water holding capacity with moderate increase in temperatures. Elevated CO 2 had greater positive effect on transpiration use efficiency (TUE) than negative effect of elevated mean temperatures. The change in TUE was in near perfect direct relationship with elevated CO 2 levels (R 2 >0.99) and every 100-ppm atmospheric CO 2 increase resulted in TUE increase by 2kgha -1 mm -1 . Thereby, in this environment yield gains are expected in future and farmers can benefit from growing wheat. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Negative impacts of climate change on cereal yields: statistical evidence from France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gammans, Matthew; Mérel, Pierre; Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel

2017-05-01

In several world regions, climate change is predicted to negatively affect crop productivity. The recent statistical yield literature emphasizes the importance of flexibly accounting for the distribution of growing-season temperature to better represent the effects of warming on crop yields. We estimate a flexible statistical yield model using a long panel from France to investigate the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on wheat and barley yields. Winter varieties appear sensitive to extreme cold after planting. All yields respond negatively to an increase in spring-summer temperatures and are a decreasing function of precipitation about historical precipitation levels. Crop yields are predicted to be negatively affected by climate change under a wide range of climate models and emissions scenarios. Under warming scenario RCP8.5 and holding growing areas and technology constant, our model ensemble predicts a 21.0% decline in winter wheat yield, a 17.3% decline in winter barley yield, and a 33.6% decline in spring barley yield by the end of the century. Uncertainty from climate projections dominates uncertainty from the statistical model. Finally, our model predicts that continuing technology trends would counterbalance most of the effects of climate change.

Reproduction of Meloidogyne incognita on Winter Cover Crops Used in Cotton Production

PubMed Central

Timper, Patricia; Davis, Richard F.; Tillman, P. Glynn

2006-01-01

Substantial reproduction of Meloidogyne incognita on winter cover crops may lead to damaging populations in a subsequent cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) crop. The amount of population increase during the winter depends on soil temperature and the host status of the cover crop. Our objectives were to quantify M. incognita race 3 reproduction on rye (Secale cereale) and several leguminous cover crops and to determine if these cover crops increase population densities of M. incognita and subsequent damage to cotton. The cover crops tested were ‘Bigbee’ berseem clover (Trifolium alexandrinum), ‘Paradana’ balansa clover (T. balansae), ‘AU Sunrise’ and ‘Dixie’ crimson clover (T. incarnatum), ‘Cherokee’ red clover (T. pratense), common and ‘AU Early Cover’ hairy vetch (Vicia villosa), ‘Cahaba White’ vetch (V. sativa), and ‘Wrens Abruzzi’ rye. In the greenhouse tests, egg production was greatest on berseem clover, Dixie crimson clover, AU Early Cover hairy vetch, and common hairy vetch; intermediate on Balansa clover and AU Sunrise crimson clover; and least on rye, Cahaba White vetch, and Cherokee red clover. In both 2002 and 2003 field tests, enough heat units were accumulated between 1 January and 20 May for the nematode to complete two generations. Both AU Early Cover and common hairy vetch led to greater root galling than fallow in the subsequent cotton crop; they also supported high reproduction of M. incognita in the greenhouse. Rye and Cahaba White vetch did not increase root galling on cotton and were relatively poor hosts for M. incognita. Only those legumes that increased populations of M. incognita reduced cotton yield. In the southern US, M. incognita can complete one to two generations on a susceptible winter cover crop, so cover crops that support high nematode reproduction may lead to damage and yield losses in the following cotton crop. Planting rye or Meloidogyne-resistant legumes as winter cover crops will lower the risk of increased nematode populations compared to most vetches and clovers. PMID:19259434

Reproduction of Meloidogyne incognita on Winter Cover Crops Used in Cotton Production.

PubMed

Timper, Patricia; Davis, Richard F; Tillman, P Glynn

2006-03-01

Substantial reproduction of Meloidogyne incognita on winter cover crops may lead to damaging populations in a subsequent cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) crop. The amount of population increase during the winter depends on soil temperature and the host status of the cover crop. Our objectives were to quantify M. incognita race 3 reproduction on rye (Secale cereale) and several leguminous cover crops and to determine if these cover crops increase population densities of M. incognita and subsequent damage to cotton. The cover crops tested were 'Bigbee' berseem clover (Trifolium alexandrinum), 'Paradana' balansa clover (T. balansae), 'AU Sunrise' and 'Dixie' crimson clover (T. incarnatum), 'Cherokee' red clover (T. pratense), common and 'AU Early Cover' hairy vetch (Vicia villosa), 'Cahaba White' vetch (V. sativa), and 'Wrens Abruzzi' rye. In the greenhouse tests, egg production was greatest on berseem clover, Dixie crimson clover, AU Early Cover hairy vetch, and common hairy vetch; intermediate on Balansa clover and AU Sunrise crimson clover; and least on rye, Cahaba White vetch, and Cherokee red clover. In both 2002 and 2003 field tests, enough heat units were accumulated between 1 January and 20 May for the nematode to complete two generations. Both AU Early Cover and common hairy vetch led to greater root galling than fallow in the subsequent cotton crop; they also supported high reproduction of M. incognita in the greenhouse. Rye and Cahaba White vetch did not increase root galling on cotton and were relatively poor hosts for M. incognita. Only those legumes that increased populations of M. incognita reduced cotton yield. In the southern US, M. incognita can complete one to two generations on a susceptible winter cover crop, so cover crops that support high nematode reproduction may lead to damage and yield losses in the following cotton crop. Planting rye or Meloidogyne-resistant legumes as winter cover crops will lower the risk of increased nematode populations compared to most vetches and clovers.

Surveying Rubisco Diversity and Temperature Response to Improve Crop Photosynthetic Efficiency.

PubMed

Orr, Douglas J; Alcântara, André; Kapralov, Maxim V; Andralojc, P John; Carmo-Silva, Elizabete; Parry, Martin A J

2016-10-01

The threat to global food security of stagnating yields and population growth makes increasing crop productivity a critical goal over the coming decades. One key target for improving crop productivity and yields is increasing the efficiency of photosynthesis. Central to photosynthesis is Rubisco, which is a critical but often rate-limiting component. Here, we present full Rubisco catalytic properties measured at three temperatures for 75 plants species representing both crops and undomesticated plants from diverse climates. Some newly characterized Rubiscos were naturally "better" compared to crop enzymes and have the potential to improve crop photosynthetic efficiency. The temperature response of the various catalytic parameters was largely consistent across the diverse range of species, though absolute values showed significant variation in Rubisco catalysis, even between closely related species. An analysis of residue differences among the species characterized identified a number of candidate amino acid substitutions that will aid in advancing engineering of improved Rubisco in crop systems. This study provides new insights on the range of Rubisco catalysis and temperature response present in nature, and provides new information to include in models from leaf to canopy and ecosystem scale. © 2016 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Applications of satellite 'hyper-sensing' in Chinese agriculture: Challenges and opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onojeghuo, Alex Okiemute; Blackburn, George Alan; Huang, Jingfeng; Kindred, Daniel; Huang, Wenjiang

2018-02-01

Ensuring adequate food supplies to a large and increasing population continues to be the key challenge for China. Given the increasing integration of China within global markets for agricultural products, this issue is of considerable significance for global food security. Over the last 50 years, China has increased the production of its staple crops mainly by increasing yield per unit land area. However, this has largely been achieved through inappropriate agricultural practices, which have caused environmental degradation, with deleterious consequences for future agricultural productivity. Hence, there is now a pressing need to intensify agriculture in China using practices that are environmentally and economically sustainable. Given the dynamic nature of crops over space and time, the use of remote sensing technology has proven to be a valuable asset providing end-users in many countries with information to guide sustainable agricultural practices. Recently, the field has experienced considerable technological advancements reflected in the availability of 'hyper-sensing' (high spectral, spatial and temporal) satellite imagery useful for monitoring, modelling and mapping of agricultural crops. However, there still remains a significant challenge in fully exploiting such technologies for addressing agricultural problems in China. This review paper evaluates the potential contributions of satellite 'hyper-sensing' to agriculture in China and identifies the opportunities and challenges for future work. We perform a critical evaluation of current capabilities in satellite 'hyper-sensing' in agriculture with an emphasis on Chinese sensors. Our analysis draws on a series of in-depth examples based on recent and on-going projects in China that are developing 'hyper-sensing' approaches for (i) measuring crop phenology parameters and predicting yields; (ii) specifying crop fertiliser requirements; (iii) optimising management responses to abiotic and biotic stress in crops; (iv) maximising yields while minimising water use in arid regions; (v) large-scale crop/cropland mapping; and (vi) management zone delineation. The paper concludes with a synthesis of these application areas in order to define the requirements for future research, technological innovation and knowledge exchange in order to deliver yield sustainability in China.

Trade-off between blue and grey water footprint of crop production at different nitrogen application rates under various field management practices.

PubMed

Chukalla, Abebe D; Krol, Maarten S; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

2018-06-01

In irrigated crop production, nitrogen (N) is often applied at high rates in order to maximize crop yield. With such high rates, the blue water footprint (WF) per unit of crop is low, but the N-related grey WF per unit of crop yield is relatively high. This study explores the trade-off between blue and grey WF at different N-application rates (from 25 to 300 kg N ha -1  y -1 ) under various field management practices. We first analyse this trade-off under a reference management package (applying inorganic-N, conventional tillage, full irrigation). Next, we estimate the economically optimal N-application rate when putting a price to pollution. Finally, we consider the blue-grey WF trade-off for other management packages, a combination of inorganic-N or organic-N with conventional tillage or no-tillage, and full or deficit irrigation. We use the APEX model to simulate soil water and N balances and crop growth. As a case study, we consider irrigated maize on loam soil for the period 1998-2012 in a semi-arid environment in Spain. The results for the reference package show that increasing N application from 50 to 200 kg N ha -1 , with crop yield growing by a factor 3, involves a trade-off, whereby the blue WF per tonne declines by 60% but the N-related grey WF increases by 210%. Increasing N application from 25 to 50 kg N ha -1 , with yield increasing by a factor 2, is a no-regret move, because blue and grey WFs per tonne are reduced by 40% and 8%, respectively. Decreasing N application from 300 to 200 kg N ha -1 is a no-regret move as well. The minimum blue WF per tonne is found at N application of 200 kg N ha -1 , with a price of 8 $ kg -1 of N load to water pollution the economically optimal N-application rate is 150 kg N ha -1 . Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Utilization of heavy metal-rich tannery sludge for sweet basil (Ocimum basilicum L.) cultivation.

PubMed

Chand, Sukhmal; Singh, Shweta; Singh, Vinay Kumar; Patra, D D

2015-05-01

Unlike food crops, essential oil-bearing crops in which the oil is extracted through hydro-distillation can be a suitable crop to be grown in heavy metal-polluted soils as the oil does not carry any heavy metal. In a field experiment conducted at CIMAP, Lucknow, India during 2011 and 2012, influence of six doses of tannery sludge viz 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 t ha(-1) were tested, taking sweet basil (Ocimum basilicum) as the test crop. Maximum herb yield was obtained with the application of sludge at 20 t ha(-1). While in root, accumulation of Cd and Pb increased significantly up to 20 t ha(-1), Cr accumulation increased with increasing the dose of tannery sludge reaching maximum at 50 t ha(-1). Essential oil yield of basil (Ocimum basilicum) was significantly affected due to sludge application. Quality of essential oil, in term of chemical constituents, however, was marginally influenced due to tannery sludge application.

Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

2015-01-01

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture.

PubMed

Cassman, K G

1999-05-25

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), rice (Oryza sativa L.), and maize (Zea mays L.) provide about two-thirds of all energy in human diets, and four major cropping systems in which these cereals are grown represent the foundation of human food supply. Yield per unit time and land has increased markedly during the past 30 years in these systems, a result of intensified crop management involving improved germplasm, greater inputs of fertilizer, production of two or more crops per year on the same piece of land, and irrigation. Meeting future food demand while minimizing expansion of cultivated area primarily will depend on continued intensification of these same four systems. The manner in which further intensification is achieved, however, will differ markedly from the past because the exploitable gap between average farm yields and genetic yield potential is closing. At present, the rate of increase in yield potential is much less than the expected increase in demand. Hence, average farm yields must reach 70-80% of the yield potential ceiling within 30 years in each of these major cereal systems. Achieving consistent production at these high levels without causing environmental damage requires improvements in soil quality and precise management of all production factors in time and space. The scope of the scientific challenge related to these objectives is discussed. It is concluded that major scientific breakthroughs must occur in basic plant physiology, ecophysiology, agroecology, and soil science to achieve the ecological intensification that is needed to meet the expected increase in food demand.

ENSO and PDO-related climate variability impacts on Midwestern United States crop yields.

PubMed

Henson, Chasity; Market, Patrick; Lupo, Anthony; Guinan, Patrick

2017-05-01

An analysis of crop yields for the state of Missouri was completed to determine if an interannual or multidecadal variability existed as a result of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Corn and soybean yields were recorded in kilograms per hectare for each of the six climate regions of Missouri. An analysis using the Mokhov "method of cycles" demonstrated interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal variations in crop yields. Cross-spectral analysis was used to determine which region was most impacted by ENSO and PDO influenced seasonal (April-September) temperature and precipitation. Interannual (multidecadal) variations found in the spectral analysis represent a relationship to ENSO (PDO) phase, while interdecadal variations represent a possible interaction between ENSO and PDO. Average crop yields were then calculated for each combination of ENSO and PDO phase, displaying a pronounced increase in corn and soybean yields when ENSO is warm and PDO is positive. Climate regions 1, 2, 4, and 6 displayed significant differences (p value of 0.10 or less) in yields between El Niño and La Niña years, representing 55-70 % of Missouri soybean and corn productivity, respectively. Final results give the opportunity to produce seasonal predictions of corn and soybean yields, specific to each climate region in Missouri, based on the combination of ENSO and PDO phases.

Performance of Vegetation Indices for Wheat Yield Forecasting for Punjab, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dempewolf, J.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Adusei, B.; Barker, B.

2013-12-01

Forecasting wheat yield in major producer countries early in the growing season allows better planning for harvest deficits and surplus with implications for food security, world market transactions, sustaining adequate grain stocks, policy making and other matters. Remote sensing imagery is well suited for yield forecasting over large areas. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been the most-used spectral index derived from remote sensing imagery for assessing crop condition of major crops and forecasting crop yield. Many authors have found that the highest correlation between NDVI and yield of wheat crops occurs at the height of the growing season when NDVI values and photosynthetic activity of the wheat plants are at their relative maximum. At the same time NDVI saturates in very dense and vigorous (healthy, green) canopies such as wheat fields during the seasonal peak and shows significantly reduced sensitivity to further increases in photosynthetic activity. In this study we compare the performance of different vegetation indices derived from space-borne red and near-infrared spectral reflectance measurements for wheat yield forecasting in the Punjab Province, Pakistan. Areas covered by wheat crop each year were determined using a time series of MODIS 8-day composites at 250 m resolution converted to temporal metrics and classified using a bagged decision tree approach, driven by classified multi-temporal Landsat scenes. Within the wheat areas we analyze and compare wheat yield forecasts derived from three different satellite-based vegetation indices at the peak of the growing season. We regressed in turn NDVI, Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index (WDRVI) and the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) from the four years preceding the wheat growing season 2011/12 against reported yield values and applied the regression equations to forecast wheat yield for the 2011/12 season per district for each of 36 Punjab districts. Yield forecasts overall corresponded well with reported values. NDVI-based forecasts showed high correlations of r squared = 0.881 and RMSE 11%. The VCI performed similarly well with r squared = 0.886 and RMSE 11%. WDRVI performed better than either of the other indices with r squared = 0.909 and RMSE 10%, probably due to the increased sensitivity of the index at high values. Wheat yields in Pakistan show on average a slow but steady annual increase but overall are comparatively stable due to the fact that the majority of fields are irrigated. The next steps in this study will be to compare NDVI- with WDRVI-based yield forecasts in other environments dominated by rain-fed agriculture, such as Ukraine, Australia and the United States.

Spectral variations of canopy reflectance in support of precision agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kancheva, Rumiana; Georgiev, Georgi; Borisova, Denitsa; Nikolov, Hristo

2014-05-01

Agricultural monitoring is an important and continuously spreading activity in remote sensing and applied Earth observations. It supplies precise, reliable and valuable information on current crop condition and growth processes. In agriculture, the timing of seasonal cycles of crop activity is important for species classification and evaluation of crop development, growing conditions and potential yield. The correct interpretation of remotely sensed data, however, and the increasing demand for data reliability require ground-truth knowledge of the seasonal spectral behavior of different species and their relation to crop vigor. For this reason, we performed ground-based study of the seasonal response of winter wheat reflectance patterns to crop growth patterns. The goal was to quantify crop seasonality by establishing empirical relationships between plant biophysical and spectral properties in main ontogenetic periods. Phenology and agro-specific relationships allow assessing crop condition during different portions of the growth cycle and thus effectively tracking plant development, and finally make yield predictions. The applicability of a number of vegetation indices (VIs) for monitoring crop seasonal dynamics, its health condition, and yield potential was examined. Special emphasis we put on narrow-band indices as the availability of data from hyperspectral imagers is unavoidable future. The temporal behavior of vegetation indices revealed increased sensitivity to crop growth. The derived spectral-biophysical relationships allowed extraction of quantitative information about crop variables and yield at different stages of the phenological development. Relating plant spectral and biophysical variables in a phenology-based manner allows crop monitoring, that is crop diagnosis and predictions to be performed multiple times during plant ontogenesis. During active vegetative periods spectral data was highly indicative of plant growth trends and yield potential. The VIs values contributed to reliable yield prediction and showed very good correspondence with the estimates from biophysical models. For dates before full maturity most of the examined VIs proved to be meaningful statistical predictors of crop state-indicative biophysical variables. High correlations were obtained for canopy cover fraction, LAI, and biomass. Sensitivity to red, near-infrared and green reflectance showed both vigorous and stressed plants. As crops attained advanced growth stages, decreased sensitivity of VIs and weaker correlations with bioparameters were observed, yet still significant in a statistical sense. The results highlight the capability of the presented approach to track the dynamics of crop growth from multitemporal spectral data, and illustrate the prediction accuracy of the spectral models. The results are useful in assessing the efficiency of various spectral band ratios and other vegetation indices often used in remote sensing studies of natural and agricultural vegetation. They suggest that the used algorithm for data processing is particularly suitable for airborne cropland monitoring and could be expanded to sites at farm or municipality scale. The results reported are from pilot study carried out on a plot located in one of the established polygons for experimental crop monitoring. In the mentioned research GIS database is established for supporting the experiments and modelling process. Recommendations on good farming practices for medium sized farms for monitoring stress conditions such as drought and overfertilizing are developed.

Is Bhutan destined for 100% organic? Assessing the economy-wide effects of a large-scale conversion policy.

PubMed

Feuerbacher, Arndt; Luckmann, Jonas; Boysen, Ole; Zikeli, Sabine; Grethe, Harald

2018-01-01

Organic agriculture (OA) is considered a strategy to make agriculture more sustainable. Bhutan has embraced the ambitious goal of becoming the world's first 100% organic nation. By analysing recent on-farm data in Bhutan, we found organic crop yields on average to be 24% lower than conventional yields. Based on these yield gaps, we assess the effects of the 100% organic conversion policy by employing an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with detailed representation of Bhutan's agricultural sector incorporating agroecological zones, crop nutrients, and field operations. Despite a low dependency on agrochemicals from the onset of this initiative, we find a considerable reduction in Bhutan's GDP, substantial welfare losses, particularly for non-agricultural households, and adverse impacts on food security. The yield gap is the main driver for a strong decline in domestic agricultural production, which is largely compensated by increased food imports, resulting in a weakening of the country's cereal self-sufficiency. Current organic by default farming practices in Bhutan are still underdeveloped and do not apply the systems approach of organic farming as defined in the IFOAM organic farming standards. This is reflected in the strong decline of nitrogen (N) availability to crops in our simulation and bears potential for increased yields in OA. Improvement of soil-fertility practices, e.g., the adoption of N-fixing crops, improved animal husbandry systems with increased provision of animal manure and access to markets with price premium for organic products could help to lower the economic cost of the large-scale conversion.

Is Bhutan destined for 100% organic? Assessing the economy-wide effects of a large-scale conversion policy

PubMed Central

Luckmann, Jonas; Boysen, Ole; Zikeli, Sabine; Grethe, Harald

2018-01-01

Organic agriculture (OA) is considered a strategy to make agriculture more sustainable. Bhutan has embraced the ambitious goal of becoming the world’s first 100% organic nation. By analysing recent on-farm data in Bhutan, we found organic crop yields on average to be 24% lower than conventional yields. Based on these yield gaps, we assess the effects of the 100% organic conversion policy by employing an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with detailed representation of Bhutan’s agricultural sector incorporating agroecological zones, crop nutrients, and field operations. Despite a low dependency on agrochemicals from the onset of this initiative, we find a considerable reduction in Bhutan’s GDP, substantial welfare losses, particularly for non-agricultural households, and adverse impacts on food security. The yield gap is the main driver for a strong decline in domestic agricultural production, which is largely compensated by increased food imports, resulting in a weakening of the country’s cereal self-sufficiency. Current organic by default farming practices in Bhutan are still underdeveloped and do not apply the systems approach of organic farming as defined in the IFOAM organic farming standards. This is reflected in the strong decline of nitrogen (N) availability to crops in our simulation and bears potential for increased yields in OA. Improvement of soil-fertility practices, e.g., the adoption of N-fixing crops, improved animal husbandry systems with increased provision of animal manure and access to markets with price premium for organic products could help to lower the economic cost of the large-scale conversion. PMID:29897989

Benefits of increasing plant diversity in sustainable agroecosystems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent studies have revealed many potential benefits of increasing plant diversity in agroecosystems and production forests, including enhancing yields of crops, forage, and wood; stabilizing yields across time and space; enhancing pollinators and pollination; suppressing weeds and other pests; and ...

Responses of root physiological characteristics and yield of sweet potato to humic acid urea fertilizer

PubMed Central

Kou, Meng; Tang, Zhonghou; Zhang, Aijun; Li, Hongmin; Wei, Meng

2017-01-01

Humic acid (HA), not only promote the growth of crop roots, they can be combined with nitrogen (N) to increase fertilizer use efficiency and yield. However, the effects of HA urea fertilizer (HA-N) on root growth and yield of sweet potato has not been widely investigated. Xushu 28 was used as the experimental crop to investigate the effects of HA-N on root morphology, active oxygen metabolism and yield under field conditions. Results showed that nitrogen application alone was not beneficial for root growth and storage root formation during the early growth stage. HA-N significantly increased the dry weight of the root system, promoted differentiation from adventitious root to storage root, and increased the overall root activity, total root length, root diameter, root surface area, as well as root volume. HA-N thus increased the activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD), peroxidase (POD), and Catalase (CAT) as well as increasing the soluble protein content of roots and decreasing the malondialdehyde (MDA) content. HA-N significantly increased both the number of storage roots per plant increased by 14.01%, and the average fresh weight per storage root increased by 13.7%, while the yield was also obviously increased by 29.56%. In this study, HA-N increased yield through a synergistic increase of biological yield and harvest index. PMID:29253886

N use efficiencies and N2O emissions in two contrasting, biochar amended soils under winter wheat—cover crop—sorghum rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hüppi, Roman; Neftel, Albrecht; Lehmann, Moritz F.; Krauss, Maike; Six, Johan; Leifeld, Jens

2016-08-01

Biochar, a carbon-rich, porous pyrolysis product of organic residues, is evaluated as an option to tackle major problems of the global food system. Applied to soil, biochar can sequester carbon and have beneficial effects on nitrogen (N) cycling, thereby enhancing crop yields and reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. There is little understanding of the underlying mechanisms, but many experiments indicated increased yields and manifold changes in N transformation, suggesting an increase in N use efficiency. Biochar’s effects can be positive in extensively managed tropical agriculture, however less is known about its use in temperate soils with intensive fertilisation. We tested the effect of slow pyrolysis wood chip biochar on N use efficiency, crop yields and N2O emissions in a lysimeter system with two soil types (sandy loamy Cambisol and silty loamy Luvisol) in a winter wheat—cover crop—sorghum rotation. 15N-labelled ammonium nitrate fertiliser (170 kg N ha-1 in 3 doses, 10% 15N) was applied to the first crop to monitor its fate in three ecosystem components (plants, soil, leachate). Green rye was sown as cover crop to keep the first year’s fertiliser N for the second year’s sorghum crop (fertilised with 110 kg N ha-1 in two doses and natural abundance 15N). We observed no effects of biochar on N fertiliser use efficiency, yield or N uptake for any crop. Biochar reduced leaching by 43 ± 19% but only towards the end of the experiment with leaching losses being generally low. For both soils N2O emissions were reduced by 15 ± 4% with biochar compared to the control treatments. Our results indicate that application of the chosen biochar induces environmental benefits in terms of N2O emission and N leaching but does not substantially affect the overall N cycle and hence crop performance in the analyzed temperate crop rotation.

4% Yield Increase (HH4), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 4% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

Can Bangladesh produce enough cereals to meet future demand?

PubMed

Timsina, J; Wolf, J; Guilpart, N; van Bussel, L G J; Grassini, P; van Wart, J; Hossain, A; Rashid, H; Islam, S; van Ittersum, M K

2018-06-01

Bangladesh faces huge challenges in achieving food security due to its high population, diet changes, and limited room for expanding cropland and cropping intensity. The objective of this study is to assess the degree to which Bangladesh can be self-sufficient in terms of domestic maize, rice and wheat production by the years 2030 and 2050 by closing the existing gap (Yg) between yield potential (Yp) and actual farm yield (Ya), accounting for possible changes in cropland area. Yield potential and yield gaps were calculated for the three crops using well-validated crop models and site-specific weather, management and soil data, and upscaled to the whole country. We assessed potential grain production in the years 2030 and 2050 for six land use change scenarios (general decrease in arable land; declining ground water tables in the north; cropping of fallow areas in the south; effect of sea level rise; increased cropping intensity; and larger share of cash crops) and three levels of Yg closure (1: no yield increase; 2: Yg closure at a level equivalent to 50% (50% Yg closure); 3: Yg closure to a level of 85% of Yp (irrigated crops) and 80% of water-limited yield potential or Yw (rainfed crops) (full Yg closure)). In addition, changes in demand with low and high population growth rates, and substitution of rice by maize in future diets were also examined. Total aggregated demand of the three cereals (in milled rice equivalents) in 2030 and 2050, based on the UN median population variant, is projected to be 21 and 24% higher than in 2010. Current Yg represent 50% (irrigated rice), 48-63% (rainfed rice), 49% (irrigated wheat), 40% (rainfed wheat), 46% (irrigated maize), and 44% (rainfed maize) of their Yp or Yw. With 50% Yg closure and for various land use changes, self-sufficiency ratio will be > 1 for rice in 2030 and about one in 2050 but well below one for maize and wheat in both 2030 and 2050. With full Yg closure, self-sufficiency ratios will be well above one for rice and all three cereals jointly but below one for maize and wheat for all scenarios, except for the scenario with drastic decrease in boro rice area to allow for area expansion for cash crops. Full Yg closure of all cereals is needed to compensate for area decreases and demand increases, and then even some maize and large amounts of wheat imports will be required to satisfy demand in future. The results of this analysis have important implications for Bangladesh and other countries with high population growth rate, shrinking arable land due to rapid urbanization, and highly vulnerable to climate change.

Development of estimation method for crop yield using MODIS satellite imagery data and process-based model for corn and soybean in US Corn-Belt region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Kang, S.; Jang, K.; Ko, J.; Hong, S.

2012-12-01

Crop productivity is associated with the food security and hence, several models have been developed to estimate crop yield by combining remote sensing data with carbon cycle processes. In present study, we attempted to estimate crop GPP and NPP using algorithm based on the LUE model and a simplified respiration model. The state of Iowa and Illinois was chosen as the study site for estimating the crop yield for a period covering the 5 years (2006-2010), as it is the main Corn-Belt area in US. Present study focuses on developing crop-specific parameters for corn and soybean to estimate crop productivity and yield mapping using satellite remote sensing data. We utilized a 10 km spatial resolution daily meteorological data from WRF to provide cloudy-day meteorological variables but in clear-say days, MODIS-based meteorological data were utilized to estimate daily GPP, NPP, and biomass. County-level statistics on yield, area harvested, and productions were used to test model predicted crop yield. The estimated input meteorological variables from MODIS and WRF showed with good agreements with the ground observations from 6 Ameriflux tower sites in 2006. For examples, correlation coefficients ranged from 0.93 to 0.98 for Tmin and Tavg ; from 0.68 to 0.85 for daytime mean VPD; from 0.85 to 0.96 for daily shortwave radiation, respectively. We developed county-specific crop conversion coefficient, i.e. ratio of yield to biomass on 260 DOY and then, validated the estimated county-level crop yield with the statistical yield data. The estimated corn and soybean yields at the county level ranged from 671 gm-2 y-1 to 1393 gm-2 y-1 and from 213 gm-2 y-1 to 421 gm-2 y-1, respectively. The county-specific yield estimation mostly showed errors less than 10%. Furthermore, we estimated crop yields at the state level which were validated against the statistics data and showed errors less than 1%. Further analysis for crop conversion coefficient was conducted for 200 DOY and 280 DOY. For the case of 280 DOY, Crop yield estimation showed better accuracy for soybean at county level. Though the case of 200 DOY resulted in less accuracy (i.e. 20% mean bias), it provides a useful tool for early forecasting of crop yield. We improved the spatial accuracy of estimated crop yield at county level by developing county-specific crop conversion coefficient. Our results indicate that the aboveground crop biomass can be estimated successfully with the simple LUE and respiration models combined with MODIS data and then, county-specific conversion coefficient can be different with each other across different counties. Hence, applying region-specific conversion coefficient is necessary to estimate crop yield with better accuracy.

The Space-Time Variation of Global Crop Yields, Detecting Simultaneous Outliers and Identifying the Teleconnections with Climatic Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Pal, I.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2017-12-01

An understanding of the climate factors that influence the space-time variability of crop yields is important for food security purposes and can help us predict global food availability. In this study, we address how the crop yield trends of countries globally were related to each other during the last several decades and the main climatic variables that triggered high/low crop yields simultaneously across the world. Robust Principal Component Analysis (rPCA) is used to identify the primary modes of variation in wheat, maize, sorghum, rice, soybeans, and barley yields. Relations between these modes of variability and important climatic variables, especially anomalous sea surface temperature (SSTa), are examined from 1964 to 2010. rPCA is also used to identify simultaneous outliers in each year, i.e. systematic high/low crop yields across the globe. The results demonstrated spatiotemporal patterns of these crop yields and the climate-related events that caused them as well as the connection of outliers with weather extremes. We find that among climatic variables, SST has had the most impact on creating simultaneous crop yields variability and yield outliers in many countries. An understanding of this phenomenon can benefit global crop trade networks.

Redefining agricultural yields: from tonnes to people nourished per hectare

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassidy, Emily S.; West, Paul C.; Gerber, James S.; Foley, Jonathan A.

2013-09-01

Worldwide demand for crops is increasing rapidly due to global population growth, increased biofuel production, and changing dietary preferences. Meeting these growing demands will be a substantial challenge that will tax the capability of our food system and prompt calls to dramatically boost global crop production. However, to increase food availability, we may also consider how the world’s crops are allocated to different uses and whether it is possible to feed more people with current levels of crop production. Of particular interest are the uses of crops as animal feed and as biofuel feedstocks. Currently, 36% of the calories produced by the world’s crops are being used for animal feed, and only 12% of those feed calories ultimately contribute to the human diet (as meat and other animal products). Additionally, human-edible calories used for biofuel production increased fourfold between the years 2000 and 2010, from 1% to 4%, representing a net reduction of available food globally. In this study, we re-examine agricultural productivity, going from using the standard definition of yield (in tonnes per hectare, or similar units) to using the number of people actually fed per hectare of cropland. We find that, given the current mix of crop uses, growing food exclusively for direct human consumption could, in principle, increase available food calories by as much as 70%, which could feed an additional 4 billion people (more than the projected 2-3 billion people arriving through population growth). Even small shifts in our allocation of crops to animal feed and biofuels could significantly increase global food availability, and could be an instrumental tool in meeting the challenges of ensuring global food security.

Do maize models capture the impacts of heat and drought stresses on yield? Using algorithm ensembles to identify successful approaches.

PubMed

Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Tan, Zeli; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Zheng, Bangyou; Melillo, Jerry M

2016-09-01

Stresses from heat and drought are expected to increasingly suppress crop yields, but the degree to which current models can represent these effects is uncertain. Here we evaluate the algorithms that determine impacts of heat and drought stress on maize in 16 major maize models by incorporating these algorithms into a standard model, the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM), and running an ensemble of simulations. Although both daily mean temperature and daylight temperature are common choice of forcing heat stress algorithms, current parameterizations in most models favor the use of daylight temperature even though the algorithm was designed for daily mean temperature. Different drought algorithms (i.e., a function of soil water content, of soil water supply to demand ratio, and of actual to potential transpiration ratio) simulated considerably different patterns of water shortage over the growing season, but nonetheless predicted similar decreases in annual yield. Using the selected combination of algorithms, our simulations show that maize yield reduction was more sensitive to drought stress than to heat stress for the US Midwest since the 1980s, and this pattern will continue under future scenarios; the influence of excessive heat will become increasingly prominent by the late 21st century. Our review of algorithms in 16 crop models suggests that the impacts of heat and drought stress on plant yield can be best described by crop models that: (i) incorporate event-based descriptions of heat and drought stress, (ii) consider the effects of nighttime warming, and (iii) coordinate the interactions among multiple stresses. Our study identifies the proficiency with which different model formulations capture the impacts of heat and drought stress on maize biomass and yield production. The framework presented here can be applied to other modeled processes and used to improve yield predictions of other crops with a wide variety of crop models. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating high temporal and spatial resolution vegetation index for crop yield prediction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Remote sensing data have been widely used in estimating crop yield. Remote sensing derived parameters such as Vegetation Index (VI) were used either directly in building empirical models or by assimilating with crop growth models to predict crop yield. The abilities of remote sensing VI in crop yiel...

Biochar potential in intensive cultivation of Capsicum annuum L. (sweet pepper): crop yield and plant protection.

PubMed

Kumar, Abhay; Elad, Yigal; Tsechansky, Ludmila; Abrol, Vikas; Lew, Beni; Offenbach, Rivka; Graber, Ellen R

2018-01-01

The influence of various biochars on crop yield and disease resistance of Capsicum annuum L. (sweet pepper) under modern, high input, intensive net house cultivation was tested over the course of 2011-2014 in the Arava desert region of Israel. A pot experiment with Lactuca sativa L. (lettuce) grown in the absence of fertilizer employed the 3-year-old field trial soils to determine if biochar treatments contributed to soil intrinsic fertility. Biochar amendments resulted in a significant increase in the number and weight of pepper fruits over 3 years. Concomitant with the increased yield, biochar significantly decreased the severity of powdery mildew (Leveillula taurica) disease and broad mite (Polyphagotarsonemus latus) pest infestation. Biochar additions resulted in increased soil organic matter but did not influence the pH, electrical conductivity or soil or plant mineral nutrients. Intrinsic fertility experiments with lettuce showed that two of the four biochar-treated field soils had significant positive impacts on lettuce fresh weight and total chlorophyll, carotenoid and anthocyanin contents. Biochar-based soil management can enhance the functioning of intensive, commercial, net house production of peppers under the tested conditions, resulting in increased crop yield and plant resistance to disease over several years. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Land management on soil physical properties and maize (Zea mays L. var. BIMA) growth (An adaptation strategy of climate change)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaki, M. K.; Komariah; Pujiasmanto, B.; Noda, K.

2018-03-01

Water deficit is a problem on rainfed maize production but can be solved by proper land management. The objective of the study to determine the soil physical properties and maize yield affected by land management to adapt to drought. The experimental design was a randomized complete block using 5 treatments with 4 repetitions, including: (i) Control (KO), (ii) Rice Straw Mulched (MC), (iii) Compost Fertilizer (CF), (iv) In-Organic Fertilizer (AF), (v) Legume Cover crop (CC). Soil physical and maize growth properties namely soil moisture, soil texture, soil bulk density, plant height, biomass, and yield were investigated. The results showed that composting land increased soil water availability and provided nutrient to crops and thus increase soil physical properties, maize growth and yield. Although inorganic fertilizer also increased plant growth and yield, but it did not improve soil physical properties.

Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Saeed, Fahad; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Wang, Xuhui; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Thiery, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.

Crop damage and livestock depredation by wildlife: a case study from Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, India.

PubMed

Rao, K S; Maikhuri, R K; Nautiyal, S; Saxena, K G

2002-11-01

The success of conserving biological resources in any Biosphere Reserve or protected area depends on the extent of support and positive attitudes and perceptions of local people have towards such establishments. Ignoring the dependence of the local people for their subsistence needs on resources of such areas leads to conflicts between protected area managers and the local inhabitants. Crop yield losses and livestock depredation were serious problems observed in most buffer zone villages of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve. In the present study 10 villages situated in the buffer zone of Nanada Devi Biosphere Reserve (1612 km2 area) in Chamoli district of Uttaranchal, India were studied during 1996-97 using a questionnaire survey of each household (419 = households; 2253 = total population in 1991; 273 ha = cultivated area). Estimates of crop yield losses were made using paired plots technique in four representative villages for each crop species. The magnitude of crop yield losses varied significantly with the distance of agricultural field from forest boundary. The total crop yield losses were high for wheat and potato in all the villages. The spatial distribution of total crop yield losses in any village indicated that they were highest in the area near to forest and least in the area near to village for all crops. Losses from areas near to forest contributed to more than 50% of total losses for each crop in all villages. However, in Lata, Peng and Tolma villages, the losses are high for kidney bean and chemmi (local variety of kidney bean) which varied between 18.5% to 30% of total losses in those villages. Potato alone represents 43.6% of total crop yield loss due to wildlife in Dronagiri village in monetary terms. Among the crops, the monetary value of yield losses are least for amaranth and highest for kidney bean. The projected total value of crop yield losses due to wildlife damage for buffer zone villages located in Garhwal Himalaya is about Rs. 538,620 (US$ 15,389). Besides food grains, horticultural crops i.e. apple, also suffered maximum damage. Major wildlife agents responsible for crop damage were wild boar, bear, porcupine, monkey, musk deer and partridge (chokor). Monkey and wild boar alone accounted for about 50% to 60% of total crop damage in the study villages. Goat and sheep are the major livestock killed by leopard. The total value of livestock losses at prevailing market rates is about Rs. 1,024,520 (US$ 29,272) in the study villages. Due to existing conservation policies and laxity in implementation of preventive measures, the problems for local inhabitants are increasing. Potential solutions discussed emphasize the need to undertake suitable and appropriate protective measures to minimize the crop losses. Change in cropping and crop composition, particularly cultivation of medicinal plants (high value low volume crops), were also suggested. Besides, fair and quick disbursement of compensation for crop loss and livestock killing need to be adopted. Local people of the buffer zone area already have a negative attitude towards park/reserve establishment due to socio-political changes inducing major economic losses and this attitude may lead to clashes and confrontations if proper ameliorative measures are not taken immediately.

Thiourea, a ROS scavenger, regulates source-to-sink relationship to enhance crop yield and oil content in Brassica juncea (L.).

PubMed

Pandey, Manish; Srivastava, Ashish Kumar; D'Souza, Stanislaus Francis; Penna, Suprasanna

2013-01-01

In the present agricultural scenario, the major thrust is to increase crop productivity so as to ensure sustainability. In an earlier study, foliar application of thiourea (TU; a non physiological thiol based ROS scavenger) has been demonstrated to enhance the stress tolerance and yield of different crops under field condition. Towards this endeavor, present work deals with the effect of TU on photosynthetic efficiency and source-to-sink relationship of Indian mustard (Brassica juncea) for understanding its mode of action. The application of TU increased the efficiency of both PSI and PSII photosystems and vegetative growth of plant. The comparative analysis of sucrose to starch ratio and expression level of sugar transporters confirmed the higher source and sink strength in response to TU treatment. The biochemical evidence in support of this was derived from higher activities of sucrose phosphate synthase and fructose-1,6-bis-phosphatase at source; and sucrose synthase and different classes of invertases at both source and sink. This indicated an overall increase in photoassimilate level at sink. An additional contribution through pod photosynthesis was confirmed through the analysis of phosphoenol pyruvate carboxylase enzyme activity and level of organic acids. The increased photoassimilate level was also co-ordinated with acetyl coA carboxylase mediated oil biosynthesis. All these changes were ultimately reflected in the form of 10 and 20% increase in total yield and oil content, respectively under TU treatment as compared to control. Additionally, no change was observed in oil composition of seeds derived from TU treated plants. The study thus signifies the co-ordinated regulation of key steps of photosynthesis and source-to-sink relationship through the external application of TU resulting in increased crop yield and oil content.

Impacts of elevated atmospheric CO2 on nutrient content and yield of important food crops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One of the many ways that climate change may affect human health is by altering the nutrient content of food crops. However, previous attempts to study the effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on crop nutrition have been limited by small sample sizes and/or artificial growing conditions. Here we p...

Effects of enhanced efficiency fertilizers on cotton growth characteristics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The use of enhanced-efficiency N fertilizers (EENFs) in row crop agriculture has not been well studied despite increasing interest in these N sources to increase crop yield while also decreasing N loss. Therefore, a field study was conducted in Central Alabama from 2009 to 2011 to compare EENFs to s...

Effects of different on-farm management on yield and water use efficiency of Potato crop cultivated in semiarid environments under subsurface drip irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghazouani, Hiba; Provenzano, Giuseppe; Rallo, Giovanni; Mguidiche, Amel; Douh, Boutheina; Boujelben, Abdelhamid

2016-04-01

In Tunisia the amount of water for irrigated agriculture is higher than about 80% of the total resource.The increasing population and the rising food demand, associated to the negative effects of climate change,make it crucial to adopt strategies aiming to improve water use efficiency (WUE). Moreover, the absence of an effective public policy for water management amplifies the imbalance between water supply and its demand. Despite improved irrigation technologies can enhance the efficiency of water distribution systems, to achieve environmental goals it is also necessaryto identify on-farm management strategies accounting for actual crop water requirement. The main objective of the paper was to assess the effects of different on-farm managementstrategies (irrigation scheduling and planting date) on yield and water use efficiency of Potato crop (Solanumtuberosum L.) irrigated with a subsurface drip system, under the semi-arid climate of central Tunisia. Experiments were carried out during three growing seasons (2012, 2014 and 2015) at the High Agronomic Institute of ChottMariem in Sousse, by considering different planting dates and irrigation depths, the latter scheduled according to the climate observed during the season. All the considered treatments received the same pesticide and fertilizer management. Experiments evidenced that the climatic variability characterizing the examined seasons (photoperiod, solar radiation and average temperature) affects considerably the crop phenological stages, and the late sowing shortens the crop cycle.It has also been demonstrated that Leaf Area Index (LAI) and crop yield resulted relatively higher for those treatments receiving larger amounts of seasonal water. Crop yield varied between 16.3 t/ha and 39.1 t/ha, with a trend linearly related to the ratio between the seasonal amount of water supplied (Irrigation, I and Precipitation, P) and the maximum crop evapotranspiration (ETm). The maximum crop yield was in particular obtained for a value of this ratio equal to 1.45. Moreover, when increasing the seasonal pluviometric deficit (P-ETm) and therefore the irrigation depth (I), standard deviations of crop yield tended to decrease, as a consequence ofthe more uniform soil water content in the root zone. In terms of agronomic water use efficiency (AWUE),differences among the investigated treatments varied in a quite narrow range,due to thecombined effects of seasonal precipitation and atmospheric water demand on irrigation depths and crop yield.On the other hand, when considering irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE), more relevant differences between treatments were observed,being the higher values of IWUEgenerally associated to the lower irrigation depths. However, to define the best irrigation management strategy it is necessary, from one side, to consider the availability of water and from the other, to perform aneconomic analysis accounting for the cost of water and the related benefits achievable by the farmer.

Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tam, A.; Jain, M.

2016-12-01

This research includes two projects pertaining to agricultural systems' adaption to climate change. The first research project focuses on the wheat yielding regions of India. Wheat is a major staple crop and many rural households and smallholder farmers rely on crop yields for survival. We examine the impacts of weather variability and groundwater depletion on agricultural systems, using geospatial analysis and satellite-based analysis and household-based and census data sets. We use these methods to estimate the crop yields and identify what factors are associated with low versus high yielding regions. This can help identify strategies that should be further promoted to increase crop yields. The second research project is a literature review. We conduct a meta-analysis and synthetic review on literature about agricultural adaptation to climate change. We sort through numerous articles to identify and examine articles that associate socio-economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors to farmers' adaption to climate change. Our preliminary results show that researchers tend to associate few factors to a farmers' vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and most of the research conducted is concentrated in North America, whereas tropical regions that are highly vulnerable to weather variability are underrepresented by literature. There are no conclusive results in both research projects as of so far.

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption.

PubMed

Dobermann, Achim; Cassman, Kenneth G

2005-09-01

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However, large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (-0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm-or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikely to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world's most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption.

PubMed

Dobermann, Achim; Cassman, Kenneth G

2005-12-01

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However, large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (-0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm- or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikey to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world's most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary between crops due to plant specific sensitivities to temperature, solar radiation and the vapor pressure deficits. Shifts in the growth period to earlier in the year, shortened growth period for annual crops as well as extended fall growth can also exert important influences. Projected increases in CO2 concentrations in the late 21st century exert very significant influences on ET and yield for many crops. To characterize potential impacts and the range of uncertainty, changes in total agricultural water demands and yields were computed assuming that current crop types and acreages in 21 Central Valley regional planning areas remained constant throughout the 21st century for each of the 5 representative future climate scenarios.

Comparison of SVAT models for simulating and optimizing deficit irrigation systems in arid and semi-arid countries under climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloss, Sebastian; Schuetze, Niels; Schmitz, Gerd H.

2010-05-01

The strong competition for fresh water in order to fulfill the increased demand for food worldwide has led to a renewed interest in techniques to improve water use efficiency (WUE) such as controlled deficit irrigation. Furthermore, as the implementation of crop models into complex decision support systems becomes more and more common, it is imperative to reliably predict the WUE as ratio of water consumption and yield. The objective of this paper is the assessment of the problems the crop models - such as FAO-33, DAISY, and APSIM in this study - face when maximizing the WUE. We applied these crop models for calculating the risk in yield reduction in view of different sources of uncertainty (e.g. climate) employing a stochastic framework for decision support for the planning of water supply in irrigation. The stochastic framework consists of: (i) a weather generator for simulating regional impacts of climate change; (ii) a new tailor-made evolutionary optimization algorithm for optimal irrigation scheduling with limited water supply; and (iii) the above mentioned models for simulating water transport and crop growth in a sound manner. The results present stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF) for different crops which can be used as basic tools for assessing the impact of climate variability on the risk for the potential yield. Case studies from India, Oman, Malawi, and France are presented to assess the differences in modeling water stress and yield response for the different crop models.

Drought-related vulnerability and risk assessment of groundwater in Belgium: estimation of the groundwater recharge and crop yield vulnerability with the B-CGMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquemin, Ingrid; Verbeiren, Boud; Vanderhaegen, Sven; Canters, Frank; Vermeiren, Karolien; Engelen, Guy; Huysmans, Marijke; Batelaan, Okke; Tychon, Bernard

2016-04-01

Due to common belief that regions under temperate climate are not affected by (meteorological and groundwater) drought, these events and their impacts remain poorly studied: in the GroWaDRISK, we propose to take stock of this question. We aim at providing a better understanding of the influencing factors (land use and land cover changes, water demand and climate) and the drought-related impacts on the environment, water supply and agriculture. The study area is located in the North-East of Belgium, corresponding approximatively to the Dijle and Demer catchments. To establish an overview of the groundwater situation, we assess the system input: the recharge. To achieve this goal, two models, B-CGMS and WetSpass are used to evaluate the recharge, respectively, over agricultural land and over the remaining areas, as a function of climate and for various land uses and land covers. B-CGMS, which is an adapted version for Belgium of the European Crop Growth Monitoring System, is used for assessing water recharge at a daily timestep and under different agricultural lands: arable land (winter wheat, maize...), orchards, horticulture and floriculture and for grassland. B-CGMS is designed to foresee crop yield and obviously it studies the impact of drought on crop yield and raises issues for the potential need of irrigation. For both yields and water requirements, the model proposes a potential mode, driven by temperature and solar radiation, and a water-limited mode for which water availability can limit crop growth. By this way, we can identify where and when water consumption and yield are not optimal, in addition to the Crop Water Stress Index. This index is calculated for a given crop, as the number of days affected by water stress during the growth sensitive period. Both recharge and crop yield are assessed for the current situation (1980 - 2012), taking into account the changing land use/land cover, in terms of areas and localization of the agricultural land and where the proportion of the different crops had considerably evolved through time (e.g., increase of grain maize and potatoes while winter cereals decrease). The preliminary results of the recharge lead to an average value in the area showing a significant negative trend, in both simulations with fixed (base = 1980) and changing land cover. In the same time, we could observe an increasing number of water stress periods, especially for maize, one of the main crops in the area. Finally, a preliminary test will be presented for the horizon 2040, for which we use meteorological time series (for high and low hydrologic impacts) given by the CCI-HYDR Perturbation Tool (Ntegeka V. and Willems P., 2009). This preliminary test aims to (1) evaluate the amplitude of the potential recharge deficit and, (2) especially, to define vulnerability zones, affected by frequent water stress, in connection with irrigation needs which could possibly increase the groundwater extraction.

Energy and the food system.

PubMed

Woods, Jeremy; Williams, Adrian; Hughes, John K; Black, Mairi; Murphy, Richard

2010-09-27

Modern agriculture is heavily dependent on fossil resources. Both direct energy use for crop management and indirect energy use for fertilizers, pesticides and machinery production have contributed to the major increases in food production seen since the 1960s. However, the relationship between energy inputs and yields is not linear. Low-energy inputs can lead to lower yields and perversely to higher energy demands per tonne of harvested product. At the other extreme, increasing energy inputs can lead to ever-smaller yield gains. Although fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy for agriculture, the mix of fuels used differs owing to the different fertilization and cultivation requirements of individual crops. Nitrogen fertilizer production uses large amounts of natural gas and some coal, and can account for more than 50 per cent of total energy use in commercial agriculture. Oil accounts for between 30 and 75 per cent of energy inputs of UK agriculture, depending on the cropping system. While agriculture remains dependent on fossil sources of energy, food prices will couple to fossil energy prices and food production will remain a significant contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Technological developments, changes in crop management, and renewable energy will all play important roles in increasing the energy efficiency of agriculture and reducing its reliance of fossil resources.

Courgette Production: Pollination Demand, Supply, and Value.

PubMed

Knapp, Jessica L; Osborne, Juliet L

2017-10-01

Courgette (Cucurbita pepo L.) production in the United Kingdom is estimated to be worth £6.7 million. However, little is known about this crop's requirement for insect-mediated pollination (pollinator dependence) and if pollinator populations in a landscape are able to fulfil its pollination needs (pollination deficit). Consequently, pollination experiments were conducted over 2 yr to explore pollinator dependence and pollination deficit in field-grown courgette in the United Kingdom. Results showed that pollination increased yield by 39% and there was no evidence of pollination limitation on crop yield. This was evidenced by a surprisingly low pollination deficit (of just 3%) and no statistical difference in yield (length grown, circumference, and weight) between open- and hand-pollinated crops. Nonetheless, the high economic value of courgettes means that reducing even the small pollination deficit could still increase profit by ∼£166/ha. Interestingly, 56% of fruit was able to reach marketable size and shape without any pollination. Understanding a crop's requirement for pollinators can aid growers in their decision-making about what varieties and sites should be used. In doing so, they may increase their agricultural resilience and further their economic advantage. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America.

Energy and the food system

PubMed Central

Woods, Jeremy; Williams, Adrian; Hughes, John K.; Black, Mairi; Murphy, Richard

2010-01-01

Modern agriculture is heavily dependent on fossil resources. Both direct energy use for crop management and indirect energy use for fertilizers, pesticides and machinery production have contributed to the major increases in food production seen since the 1960s. However, the relationship between energy inputs and yields is not linear. Low-energy inputs can lead to lower yields and perversely to higher energy demands per tonne of harvested product. At the other extreme, increasing energy inputs can lead to ever-smaller yield gains. Although fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy for agriculture, the mix of fuels used differs owing to the different fertilization and cultivation requirements of individual crops. Nitrogen fertilizer production uses large amounts of natural gas and some coal, and can account for more than 50 per cent of total energy use in commercial agriculture. Oil accounts for between 30 and 75 per cent of energy inputs of UK agriculture, depending on the cropping system. While agriculture remains dependent on fossil sources of energy, food prices will couple to fossil energy prices and food production will remain a significant contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Technological developments, changes in crop management, and renewable energy will all play important roles in increasing the energy efficiency of agriculture and reducing its reliance of fossil resources. PMID:20713398

Estimating the impact of mineral aerosols on crop yields in food insecure regions using statistical crop models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, A.; Forest, C. E.; Kemanian, A.

2016-12-01

A significant number of food-insecure nations exist in regions of the world where dust plays a large role in the climate system. While the impacts of common climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, ozone, and carbon dioxide) on crop yields are relatively well understood, the impact of mineral aerosols on yields have not yet been thoroughly investigated. This research aims to develop the data and tools to progress our understanding of mineral aerosol impacts on crop yields. Suspended dust affects crop yields by altering the amount and type of radiation reaching the plant, modifying local temperature and precipitation. While dust events (i.e. dust storms) affect crop yields by depleting the soil of nutrients or by defoliation via particle abrasion. The impact of dust on yields is modeled statistically because we are uncertain which impacts will dominate the response on national and regional scales considered in this study. Multiple linear regression is used in a number of large-scale statistical crop modeling studies to estimate yield responses to various climate variables. In alignment with previous work, we develop linear crop models, but build upon this simple method of regression with machine-learning techniques (e.g. random forests) to identify important statistical predictors and isolate how dust affects yields on the scales of interest. To perform this analysis, we develop a crop-climate dataset for maize, soybean, groundnut, sorghum, rice, and wheat for the regions of West Africa, East Africa, South Africa, and the Sahel. Random forest regression models consistently model historic crop yields better than the linear models. In several instances, the random forest models accurately capture the temperature and precipitation threshold behavior in crops. Additionally, improving agricultural technology has caused a well-documented positive trend that dominates time series of global and regional yields. This trend is often removed before regression with traditional crop models, but likely at the cost of removing climate information. Our random forest models consistently discover the positive trend without removing any additional data. The application of random forests as a statistical crop model provides insight into understanding the impact of dust on yields in marginal food producing regions.

Assessing gaps in irrigated agricultural productivity through satellite earth observations-A case study of the Fergana Valley, Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löw, Fabian; Biradar, Chandrashekhar; Fliemann, Elisabeth; Lamers, John P. A.; Conrad, Christopher

2017-07-01

Improving crop area and/or crop yields in agricultural regions is one of the foremost scientific challenges for the next decades. This is especially true in irrigated areas because sustainable intensification of irrigated crop production is virtually the sole means to enhance food supply and contribute to meeting food demands of a growing population. Yet, irrigated crop production worldwide is suffering from soil degradation and salinity, reduced soil fertility, and water scarcity rendering the performance of irrigation schemes often below potential. On the other hand, the scope for improving irrigated agricultural productivity remains obscure also due to the lack of spatial data on agricultural production (e.g. crop acreage and yield). To fill this gap, satellite earth observations and a replicable methodology were used to estimate crop yields at the field level for the period 2010/2014 in the Fergana Valley, Central Asia, to understand the response of agricultural productivity to factors related to the irrigation and drainage infrastructure and environment. The results showed that cropping pattern, i.e. the presence or absence of multi-annual crop rotations, and spatial diversity of crops had the most persistent effects on crop yields across observation years suggesting the need for introducing sustainable cropping systems. On the other hand, areas with a lower crop diversity or abundance of crop rotation tended to have lower crop yields, with differences of partly more than one t/ha yield. It is argued that factors related to the infrastructure, for example, the distance of farms to the next settlement or the density of roads, had a persistent effect on crop yield dynamics over time. The improvement potential of cotton and wheat yields were estimated at 5%, compared to crop yields of farms in the direct vicinity of settlements or roads. In this study it is highlighted how remotely sensed estimates of crop production in combination with geospatial technologies provide a unique perspective that, when combined with field surveys, can support planners to identify management priorities for improving regional production and/or reducing environmental impacts.

Crop monitoring & yield forecasting system based on Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and process-based crop growth model: Development and validation in South and South East Asian Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiyono, T. D.

2014-12-01

Accurate and timely information on rice crop growth and yield helps governments and other stakeholders adapting their economic policies and enables relief organizations to better anticipate and coordinate relief efforts in the wake of a natural catastrophe. Such delivery of rice growth and yield information is made possible by regular earth observation using space-born Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) technology combined with crop modeling approach to estimate yield. Radar-based remote sensing is capable of observing rice vegetation growth irrespective of cloud coverage, an important feature given that in incidences of flooding the sky is often cloud-covered. The system allows rapid damage assessment over the area of interest. Rice yield monitoring is based on a crop growth simulation and SAR-derived key information, particularly start of season and leaf growth rate. Results from pilot study sites in South and South East Asian countries suggest that incorporation of SAR data into crop model improves yield estimation for actual yields. Remote-sensing data assimilation into crop model effectively capture responses of rice crops to environmental conditions over large spatial coverage, which otherwise is practically impossible to achieve. Such improvement of actual yield estimates offers practical application such as in a crop insurance program. Process-based crop simulation model is used in the system to ensure climate information is adequately captured and to enable mid-season yield forecast.

Effects of irrigation moisture regimes on yield and quality of paprika ( Capsicum annuum L)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shongwe, Victor D.; Magongo, Bekani N.; Masarirambi, Michael T.; Manyatsi, Absalom M.

Although paprika ( Capsicum annuum L) is not widely grown in Swaziland it is becoming increasingly popular as a spice and food colourant. It is a crop that requires irrigation at specific stages of growth as this affects not only the yield but most importantly the quality of the crop. Yield of paprika has been found to increase with relative increase in moisture whereas the quality of fruits has not followed the same trend. The objective of this study was to find the effect of varying irrigation water regimes on the yield and quality of paprika at uniform fertiliser levels. The study was carried out in the 2006/2007 cropping season at the Luyengo campus of the University of Swaziland in a greenhouse. A randomised complete block design was used with four water treatments (0.40, 0.60, 0.80, and 1.00 × Field Capacity). Parameters measured included leaf number per plant, plant height, chlorophyll content, canopy size, leaf width, leaf length, stem girth, dry mass, fresh mass, fruit length, and brix content. There were significant ( P < 0.05) increases in leaf number, plant height, chlorophyll content, canopy size, fresh and dry mass tops and fruit length at the highest moisture level (1.00 × FC) followed by the second highest regime (0.80 × FC) whilst the lower water regimes resulted in lower increases in each of the parameters. Leaf area index did not differ significantly across all treatments. In increasing order the treatments 0.80 × FC and 1.00 × FC gave higher yields but in decreasing order lower brix and thus subsequent lower paprika quality. It is recommended that growers who are aiming for optimum yield and high quality of paprika may use the 0.8 × FC treatment when irrigating.

Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China

PubMed Central

Erda, Lin; Wei, Xiong; Hui, Ju; Yinlong, Xu; Yue, Li; Liping, Bai; Liyong, Xie

2005-01-01

A regional climate change model (PRECIS) for China, developed by the UK's Hadley Centre, was used to simulate China's climate and to develop climate change scenarios for the country. Results from this project suggest that, depending on the level of future emissions, the average annual temperature increase in China by the end of the twenty-first century may be between 3 and 4 °C. Regional crop models were driven by PRECIS output to predict changes in yields of key Chinese food crops: rice, maize and wheat. Modelling suggests that climate change without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization could reduce the rice, maize and wheat yields by up to 37% in the next 20–80 years. Interactions of CO2 with limiting factors, especially water and nitrogen, are increasingly well understood and capable of strongly modulating observed growth responses in crops. More complete reporting of free-air carbon enrichment experiments than was possible in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report confirms that CO2 enrichment under field conditions consistently increases biomass and yields in the range of 5–15%, with CO2 concentration elevated to 550 ppm Levels of CO2 that are elevated to more than 450 ppm will probably cause some deleterious effects in grain quality. It seems likely that the extent of the CO2 fertilization effect will depend upon other factors such as optimum breeding, irrigation and nutrient applications. PMID:16433100

Oxygation enhances growth, gas exchange and salt tolerance of vegetable soybean and cotton in a saline vertisol.

PubMed

Bhattarai, Surya P; Midmore, David J

2009-07-01

Impacts of salinity become severe when the soil is deficient in oxygen. Oxygation (using aerated water for subsurface drip irrigation of crop) could minimize the impact of salinity on plants under oxygen-limiting soil environments. Pot experiments were conducted to evaluate the effects of oxygation (12% air volume/volume of water) on vegetable soybean (moderately salt tolerant) and cotton (salt tolerant) in a salinized vertisol at 2, 8, 14, 20 dS/m EC(e). In vegetable soybean, oxygation increased above ground biomass yield and water use efficiency (WUE) by 13% and 22%, respectively, compared with the control. Higher yield with oxygation was accompanied by greater plant height and stem diameter and reduced specific leaf area and leaf Na+ and Cl- concentrations. In cotton, oxygation increased lint yield and WUE by 18% and 16%, respectively, compared with the control, and was accompanied by greater canopy light interception, plant height and stem diameter. Oxygation also led to a greater rate of photosynthesis, higher relative water content in the leaf, reduced crop water stress index and lower leaf water potential. It did not, however, affect leaf Na+ or Cl- concentration. Oxygation invariably increased, whereas salinity reduced the K+ : Na+ ratio in the leaves of both species. Oxygation improved yield and WUE performance of salt tolerant and moderately tolerant crops under saline soil environments, and this may have a significant impact for irrigated agriculture where saline soils pose constraints to crop production.

[Effects of tobacco garlic crop rotation and intercropping on tobacco yield and rhizosphere soil phosphorus fractions].

PubMed

Tang, Biao; Zhang, Xi-zhou; Yang, Xian-bin

2015-07-01

A field plot experiment was conducted to investigate the tobacco yield and different forms of soil phosphorus under tobacco garlic crop rotation and intercropping patterns. The results showed that compared with tobacco monoculture, the tobacco yield and proportion of middle/high class of tobacco leaves to total leaves were significantly increased in tobacco garlic crop rotation and intercropping, and the rhizosphere soil available phosphorus contents were 1.3 and 1.7 times as high as that of tobacco monoculture at mature stage of lower leaf. For the inorganic phosphorus in rhizosphere and non-rhizosphere soil in different treatments, the contents of O-P and Fe-P were the highest, followed by Ca2-P and Al-P, and Ca8-P and Ca10-P were the lowest. Compared with tobacco monoculture and tobacco garlic crop intercropping, the Ca2-P concentration in rhizosphere soil under tobacco garlic crop rotation at mature stage of upper leaf, the Ca8-P concentration at mature stage of lower leaf, and the Ca10-P concentration at mature stage of middle leaf were lowest. The Al-P concentrations under tobacco garlic crop rotation and intercropping were 1.6 and 1.9 times, and 1.2 and 1.9 times as much as that under tobacco monoculture in rhizosphere soil at mature stages of lower leaf and middle leaf, respectively. The O-P concentrations in rhizosphere soil under tobacco garlic crop rotation and intercropping were significantly lower than that under tobacco monoculture. Compared with tobacco garlic crop intercropping, the tobacco garlic crop rotation could better improve tobacco yield and the proportion of high and middle class leaf by activating O-P, Ca10-P and resistant organic phosphorus in soil.

Cover Crops and Fertilization Alter Nitrogen Loss in Organic and Conventional Conservation Agriculture Systems

PubMed Central

Shelton, Rebecca E.; Jacobsen, Krista L.; McCulley, Rebecca L.

2018-01-01

Agroecosystem nitrogen (N) loss produces greenhouse gases, induces eutrophication, and is costly for farmers; therefore, conservation agricultural management practices aimed at reducing N loss are increasingly adopted. However, the ecosystem consequences of these practices have not been well-studied. We quantified N loss via leaching, NH3 volatilization, N2O emissions, and N retention in plant and soil pools of corn conservation agroecosystems in Kentucky, USA. Three systems were evaluated: (1) an unfertilized, organic system with cover crops hairy vetch (Vicia villosa), winter wheat (Triticum aestivum), or a mix of the two (bi-culture); (2) an organic system with a hairy vetch cover crop employing three fertilization schemes (0 N, organic N, or a fertilizer N-credit approach); and (3) a conventional system with a winter wheat cover crop and three fertilization schemes (0 N, urea N, or organic N). In the unfertilized organic system, cover crop species affected NO3-N leaching (vetch > bi-culture > wheat) and N2O-N emissions and yield during corn growth (vetch, bi-culture > wheat). Fertilization increased soil inorganic N, gaseous N loss, N leaching, and yield in the organic vetch and conventional wheat systems. Fertilizer scheme affected the magnitude of growing season N2O-N loss in the organic vetch system (organic N > fertilizer N-credit) and the timing of loss (organic N delayed N2O-N loss vs. urea) and NO3-N leaching (urea >> organic N) in the conventional wheat system, but had no effect on yield. Cover crop selection and N fertilization techniques can reduce N leaching and greenhouse gas emissions without sacrificing yield, thereby enhancing N conservation in both organic and conventional conservation agriculture systems. PMID:29403512

[Effects of phosphorus application rates and depths on P utilization and loss risk in a maize-soybean intercropping system].

PubMed

Zhao, Wei; Song, Chun; Zhou, Pan; Wang, Jia Yu; Xui, Feng; Ye, Fang; Wang, Xiao Chun; Yang, Wen Yu

2018-04-01

In order to explore the advantage of intercropping on phosphorus (P) efficient utilization and the reduction of soil P loss, a field experiment in a maize-soybean intercropping system, which included three P application (P 2 O 5 ) rates (CP: 168 kg·hm -2 ; RP 1 : 135 kg·hm -2 ; RP 2 : 101 kg·hm -2 ) and three P application depths (D 1 : applied in 5 cm depth; D 2 : applied in 15 cm depth; D 3 : 1/2 of P fertilizer applied in 5 cm depth and another 1/2 in 15 cm depth) was carried out to analyze the effects of P application rates and depth on crop aboveground biomass, grain yield, crop P uptake, soil total and available P contents, and soil P adsorption-desorption characteristics. Compared with control treatment, the aboveground biomass, grain yield, crop P uptake, soil total P, and available P content were increased significantly by P application, regardless of P rate and application depth. Under the same application depth, RP 1 had similar grain yield but higher crop P uptake compared with CP, and thus higher P apparent utilization efficiency. Under the same P application rate, the application depth of D 2 had the highest crop aboveground biomass, grain yield, P uptake, soil total P, and available P. According to the characteristic of soil P adsorption-desorption, the treatment with the rate of RP 1 and the depth of D 2 had the strongest soil P retention capacity, which had advantage in alleviating P loss. These results suggested that reducing application rate but increasing application depth of P fertilizer could improve P use efficiency and reduce soil P loss without sacrifice in crop production in maize-soybean relay intercropping system.

Root length densities of UK wheat and oilseed rape crops with implications for water capture and yield

PubMed Central

White, Charlotte A.; Sylvester-Bradley, Roger; Berry, Peter M.

2015-01-01

Root length density (RLD) was measured to 1 m depth for 17 commercial crops of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) and 40 crops of winter oilseed rape [Brassica napus; oilseed rape (OSR)] grown in the UK between 2004 and 2013. Taking the critical RLD (cRLD) for water capture as 1cm cm–3, RLDs appeared inadequate for full water capture on average below a depth of 0.32 m for winter wheat and below 0.45 m for OSR. These depths compare unfavourably (for wheat) with average depths of ‘full capture’ of 0.86 m and 0.48 m, respectively, determined for three wheat crops and one OSR crop studied in the 1970s and 1980s, and treated as references here. A simple model of water uptake and yield indicated that these shortfalls in wheat and OSR rooting compared with the reference data might be associated with shortfalls of up to 3.5 t ha–1 and 1.2 t ha–1, respectively, in grain yields under water-limited conditions, as increasingly occur through climate change. Coupled with decreased summer rainfall, poor rooting of modern arable crops could explain much of the yield stagnation that has been observed on UK farms since the 1990s. Methods of monitoring and improving rooting under commercial conditions are reviewed and discussed. PMID:25750427

Impacts of biofuel cultivation on mortality and crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashworth, K.; Wild, O.; Hewitt, C. N.

2013-05-01

Ground-level ozone is a priority air pollutant, causing ~ 22,000 excess deaths per year in Europe, significant reductions in crop yields and loss of biodiversity. It is produced in the troposphere through photochemical reactions involving oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). The biosphere is the main source of VOCs, with an estimated 1,150TgCyr-1 (~ 90% of total VOC emissions) released from vegetation globally. Isoprene (2-methyl-1,3-butadiene) is the most significant biogenic VOC in terms of mass (around 500TgCyr-1) and chemical reactivity and plays an important role in the mediation of ground-level ozone concentrations. Concerns about climate change and energy security are driving an aggressive expansion of bioenergy crop production and many of these plant species emit more isoprene than the traditional crops they are replacing. Here we quantify the increases in isoprene emission rates caused by cultivation of 72Mha of biofuel crops in Europe. We then estimate the resultant changes in ground-level ozone concentrations and the impacts on human mortality and crop yields that these could cause. Our study highlights the need to consider more than simple carbon budgets when considering the cultivation of biofuel feedstock crops for greenhouse-gas mitigation.

Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Global Yields of Major Crops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Sakurai, Gen; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Brown, Molly Elizabeth; Yamagata, Toshio

2014-01-01

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Nino likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.15.4 but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Nina years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0).Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

Investment risk in bioenergy crops

DOE PAGES

Skevas, Theodoros; Swinton, Scott M.; Tanner, Sophia; ...

2015-11-18

Here, perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6-year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn ( Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk intomore » three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit-oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops.« less

Investment risk in bioenergy crops

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skevas, Theodoros; Swinton, Scott M.; Tanner, Sophia

Here, perennial, cellulosic bioenergy crops represent a risky investment. The potential for adoption of these crops depends not only on mean net returns, but also on the associated probability distributions and on the risk preferences of farmers. Using 6-year observed crop yield data from highly productive and marginally productive sites in the southern Great Lakes region and assuming risk neutrality, we calculate expected breakeven biomass yields and prices compared to corn ( Zea mays L.) as a benchmark. Next we develop Monte Carlo budget simulations based on stochastic crop prices and yields. The crop yield simulations decompose yield risk intomore » three components: crop establishment survival, time to maturity, and mature yield variability. Results reveal that corn with harvest of grain and 38% of stover (as cellulosic bioenergy feedstock) is both the most profitable and the least risky investment option. It dominates all perennial systems considered across a wide range of farmer risk preferences. Although not currently attractive for profit-oriented farmers who are risk neutral or risk averse, perennial bioenergy crops.« less

Is Yield Increase Sufficient to Achieve Food Security in China?

PubMed Central

Wei, Xing; Zhang, Zhao; Shi, Peijun; Wang, Pin; Chen, Yi; Song, Xiao; Tao, Fulu

2015-01-01

Increasing demand for food, driven by unprecedented population growth and increasing consumption, will keep challenging food security in China. Although cereal yields have substantially improved during the last three decades, whether it will keep thriving to meet the increasing demand is not known yet. Thus, an integrated analysis on the trends of crop yield and cultivated area is essential to better understand current state of food security in China, especially on county scale. So far, yield stagnation has extensively dominated the main cereal-growing areas across China. Rice yield is facing the most severe stagnation that 53.9% counties tracked in the study have stagnated significantly, followed by maize (42.4%) and wheat (41.9%). As another important element for production sustainability, but often neglected is the planted area patterns. It has been further demonstrated that the loss in productive arable land for rice and wheat have dramatically increased the pressure on achieving food security. Not only a great deal of the planted areas have stagnated since 1980, but also collapsed. 48.4% and 54.4% of rice- and wheat-growing counties have lost their cropland areas to varying degrees. Besides, 27.6% and 35.8% of them have retrograded below the level of the 1980s. The combined influence (both loss in yield and area) has determined the crop sustainable production in China to be pessimistic for rice and wheat, and consequently no surprise to find that more than half of counties rank a lower level of production sustainability. Therefore, given the potential yield increase in wheat and maize, as well as substantial area loss of rice and wheat, the possible targeted adaptation measures for both yield and cropping area is required at county scale. Moreover, policies on food trade, alongside advocation of low calorie diets, reducing food loss and waste can help to enhance food security. PMID:25680193

Impacts of ridge-furrow rainfall concentration systems and mulches on corn growth and yield in the semiarid region of China.

PubMed

Ren, Xiao-Long; Zhang, Peng; Chen, Xiao-Li; Jia, Zhi-Kuan

2016-08-01

Plastic-covered ridge-furrow farming systems for rainfall concentration (RC) improve the water availability for crops and increase the water use efficiency (WUE), thereby stabilizing high yields. In this study, we optimized the mulching patterns for RC planting to mitigate the risks of drought during crop production in semiarid agricultural areas. We conducted a 4-year field study to determine the RC effects on corn production of mulching in furrows with 8% biodegradable films (RCSB ), liquid film (RCSL ), bare furrow (RCSN ) and conventional flat (CF) farming. We found that RC significantly (P > 0.05) increased the soil moisture in the top 0-100 cm layer and the topsoil temperature (0-20 cm) during the corn-growing period. Mulching with different materials in planting furrows further improved the rain-harvesting, moisture-retaining and yield-increasing effects of RC planting. Compared with CF, the 4-year average total dry matter amount per plant for RCSB , RCSL and RCSN treatments increased by 42.1%, 30.8% and 17.2%, respectively. The grain yield increased by 59.7%, 53.4% and 32.6%, respectively. Plastic-covered ridge and furrow mulched with biodegradable film and liquid film is recommended for use in the semiarid Loess Plateau of China to alleviate the effects of drought on crop production. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Phenotyping of field-grown wheat in the UK highlights contribution of light response of photosynthesis and flag leaf longevity to grain yield.

PubMed

Carmo-Silva, Elizabete; Andralojc, P John; Scales, Joanna C; Driever, Steven M; Mead, Andrew; Lawson, Tracy; Raines, Christine A; Parry, Martin A J

2017-06-15

Improving photosynthesis is a major target for increasing crop yields and ensuring food security. Phenotyping of photosynthesis in the field is critical to understand the limits to crop performance in agricultural settings. Yet, detailed phenotyping of photosynthetic traits is relatively scarce in field-grown wheat, with previous studies focusing on narrow germplasm selections. Flag leaf photosynthetic traits, crop development, and yield traits were compared in 64 field-grown wheat cultivars in the UK. Pre-anthesis and post-anthesis photosynthetic traits correlated significantly and positively with grain yield and harvest index (HI). These traits included net CO2 assimilation measured at ambient CO2 concentrations and a range of photosynthetic photon flux densities, and traits associated with the light response of photosynthesis. In most cultivars, photosynthesis decreased post-anthesis compared with pre-anthesis, and this was associated with decreased Rubisco activity and abundance. Heritability of photosynthetic traits suggests that phenotypic variation can be used to inform breeding programmes. Specific cultivars were identified with traits relevant to breeding for increased crop yields in the UK: pre-anthesis photosynthesis, post-anthesis photosynthesis, light response of photosynthesis, and Rubisco amounts. The results indicate that flag leaf longevity and operating photosynthetic activity in the canopy can be further exploited to maximize grain filling in UK bread wheat. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

Climate impacts on palm oil yields in the Nigerian Niger Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okoro, Stanley U.; Schickhoff, Udo; Boehner, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe A.; Huth, Neil

2016-04-01

Palm oil production has increased in recent decades and is estimated to increase further. The optimal role of palm oil production, however, is controversial because of resource conflicts with alternative land uses. Local conditions and climate change affect resource competition and the desirability of palm oil production. Based on this, crop yield simulations using different climate model output under different climate scenarios could be important tool in addressing the problem of uncertainty quantification among different climate model outputs. Previous studies on this region have focused mostly on single experimental fields, not considering variations in Agro-Ecological Zones, climatic conditions, varieties and management practices and, in most cases not extending to various IPCC climate scenarios and were mostly based on single climate model output. Furthermore, the uncertainty quantification of the climate- impact model has rarely been investigated on this region. To this end we use the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate the regional climate impact on oil palm yield over the Nigerian Niger Delta. We also examine whether the use of crop yield model output ensemble reduces the uncertainty rather than the use of climate model output ensemble. The results could serve as a baseline for policy makers in this region in understanding the interaction between potentials of energy crop production of the region as well as its food security and other negative feedbacks that could be associated with bioenergy from oil palm. Keywords: Climate Change, Climate impacts, Land use and Crop yields.

Response of perennial specialty crops to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Perennial specialty crop production is sensitive to temperature, water availability, solar radiation, air pollution, and carbon dioxide. Elevated atmospheric cabon dioxide generally increases growth rate and yield, resulting in a higher accumulation of biomass, and fruit production and quality in f...

Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change on Irrigation Demands and Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K. J.; Stockle, C. O.; Nelson, R. L.; Kruger, C. E.; Brady, M. P.; Malek, K.; Dinesh, S. T.; Barber, M. E.; Hamlet, A. F.; Yorgey, G. G.; Adam, J. C.

2018-03-01

Adaptation to a changing climate is critical to address future global food and water security challenges. While these challenges are global, successful adaptation strategies are often generated at regional scales; therefore, regional-scale studies are critical to inform adaptation decision making. While climate change affects both water supply and demand, water demand is relatively understudied, especially at regional scales. The goal of this work is to address this gap, and characterize the direct impacts of near-term (for the 2030s) climate change and elevated CO2 levels on regional-scale crop yields and irrigation demands for the Columbia River basin (CRB). This question is addressed through a coupled crop-hydrology model that accounts for site-specific and crop-specific characteristics that control regional-scale response to climate change. The overall near-term outlook for agricultural production in the CRB is largely positive, with yield increases for most crops and small overall increases in irrigation demand. However, there are crop-specific and location-specific negative impacts as well, and the aggregate regional response of irrigation demands to climate change is highly sensitive to the spatial crop mix. Low-value pasture/hay varieties of crops—typically not considered in climate change assessments—play a significant role in determining the regional response of irrigation demands to climate change, and thus cannot be overlooked. While, the overall near-term outlook for agriculture in the region is largely positive, there may be potential for a negative outlook further into the future, and it is important to consider this in long-term planning.

Integrating Plant Science and Crop Modeling: Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Soybean and Maize Production.

PubMed

Fodor, Nándor; Challinor, Andrew; Droutsas, Ioannis; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Zabel, Florian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Foyer, Christine H

2017-11-01

Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop model inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modeling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. When CO2 fertilization effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarize the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

The use of reed canary grass and giant miscanthus in the phytoremediation of municipal sewage sludge.

PubMed

Antonkiewicz, Jacek; Kołodziej, Barbara; Bielińska, Elżbieta Jolanta

2016-05-01

The application of municipal sewage sludge on energy crops is an alternative form of recycling nutrients, food materials, and organic matter from waste. Municipal sewage sludge constitutes a potential source of heavy metals in soil, which can be partially removed by the cultivation of energy crops. The aim of the research was to assess the effect of municipal sewage sludge on the uptake of heavy metals by monocotyledonous energy crops. Sewage sludge was applied at doses of 0, 10, 20, 40, and 60 Mg DM · ha(-1) once, before the sowing of plants. In a 6-year field experiment, the effect of four levels of fertilisation with sewage sludge on the uptake of heavy metals by two species of energy crops, reed canary grass (Phalaris arundinacea L.) of 'Bamse' cultivar and giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus GREEF et DEU), was analysed. It was established that the increasing doses of sewage sludge had a considerable effect on the increase in biomass yield from the tested plants. Due to the increasing doses of sewage sludge, a significant increase in heavy metals content in the energy crops was recorded. The heavy metal uptake with the miscanthus yield was the highest at a dose of 20 Mg DM · ha(-1), and at a dose of 40 Mg DM · ha(-1) in the case of reed canary grass. Research results indicate that on account of higher yields, higher bioaccumulation, and higher heavy metal uptake, miscanthus can be selected for the remediation of sewage sludge.

A systems approach to identify adaptation strategies for Midwest US cropping systems under increased climate variability and change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basso, B.; Dumont, B.

2015-12-01

A systems approach was implemented to assess the impact of management strategies and climate variability on crop yield, nitrate leaching and soil organic carbon across the the Midwest US at a fine scale spatial resolution. We used the SALUS model which designed to simulated yield and environmental outcomes of continous crop rotations under different agronomic management, soil, weather. We extracted soil parameters from the SSURGO (Soil Survey Geographic) data of nine Midwest states (IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, MO, OH, SD, WI) and weather from NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis). State specific management itineraries were extracted from USDA-NAS. We present the results different cropping systems (continuous corn, corn-soybean and extended rotations) under different management practices (no-tillage, cover crops and residue management). Simulations were conducted under both the baseline (1979-2014) and projected climatic projections (RCP2.5, 6). Results indicated that climate change would likely have a negative impact on corn yields in some areas and positive in others. Soil N, and C losses can be reduced with the adoption of conservation practices.

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P. J.; Rötter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L. A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Osborne, T. M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J. W.; Williams, J. R.; Wolf, J.

2013-09-01

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.

Increasing global agricultural production by reducing ozone damages via methane emission controls and ozone-resistant cultivar selection

PubMed Central

Avnery, Shiri; Mauzerall, Denise L; Fiore, Arlene M

2013-01-01

Meeting the projected 50% increase in global grain demand by 2030 without further environmental degradation poses a major challenge for agricultural production. Because surface ozone (O3) has a significant negative impact on crop yields, one way to increase future production is to reduce O3-induced agricultural losses. We present two strategies whereby O3 damage to crops may be reduced. We first examine the potential benefits of an O3 mitigation strategy motivated by climate change goals: gradual emission reductions of methane (CH4), an important greenhouse gas and tropospheric O3 precursor that has not yet been targeted for O3 pollution abatement. Our second strategy focuses on adapting crops to O3 exposure by selecting cultivars with demonstrated O3 resistance. We find that the CH4 reductions considered would increase global production of soybean, maize, and wheat by 23–102 Mt in 2030 – the equivalent of a ∼2–8% increase in year 2000 production worth $3.5–15 billion worldwide (USD2000), increasing the cost effectiveness of this CH4 mitigation policy. Choosing crop varieties with O3 resistance (relative to median-sensitivity cultivars) could improve global agricultural production in 2030 by over 140 Mt, the equivalent of a 12% increase in 2000 production worth ∼$22 billion. Benefits are dominated by improvements for wheat in South Asia, where O3-induced crop losses would otherwise be severe. Combining the two strategies generates benefits that are less than fully additive, given the nature of O3 effects on crops. Our results demonstrate the significant potential to sustainably improve global agricultural production by decreasing O3-induced reductions in crop yields. PMID:23504903

Understanding and engineering beneficial plant–microbe interactions: plant growth promotion in energy crops

PubMed Central

Farrar, Kerrie; Bryant, David; Cope-Selby, Naomi

2014-01-01

Plant production systems globally must be optimized to produce stable high yields from limited land under changing and variable climates. Demands for food, animal feed, and feedstocks for bioenergy and biorefining applications, are increasing with population growth, urbanization and affluence. Low-input, sustainable, alternatives to petrochemical-derived fertilizers and pesticides are required to reduce input costs and maintain or increase yields, with potential biological solutions having an important role to play. In contrast to crops that have been bred for food, many bioenergy crops are largely undomesticated, and so there is an opportunity to harness beneficial plant–microbe relationships which may have been inadvertently lost through intensive crop breeding. Plant–microbe interactions span a wide range of relationships in which one or both of the organisms may have a beneficial, neutral or negative effect on the other partner. A relatively small number of beneficial plant–microbe interactions are well understood and already exploited; however, others remain understudied and represent an untapped reservoir for optimizing plant production. There may be near-term applications for bacterial strains as microbial biopesticides and biofertilizers to increase biomass yield from energy crops grown on land unsuitable for food production. Longer term aims involve the design of synthetic genetic circuits within and between the host and microbes to optimize plant production. A highly exciting prospect is that endosymbionts comprise a unique resource of reduced complexity microbial genomes with adaptive traits of great interest for a wide variety of applications. PMID:25431199

Impacts on Global Agriculture of Stratospheric Sulfate Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.; Xia, L.

2014-12-01

Impacts on global food supply are one of the most important concerns in the discussion of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering. Stratospheric sulfate injection could reduce surface temperature, precipitation, and insolation, which could affect agricultural production. We use output from climate model simulations using the two most "realistic" scenarios from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, G3 and G4. G3 posits balancing the increasing radiative forcing from the RCP4.5 business-as-usual scenario with stratospheric sulfate aerosols from 2020 through 2070. The G4 scenario also uses RCP4.5, but models simulate the stratospheric injection of 5 Tg SO2 per year from 2020 to 2070. In total, there are three modeling groups which have completed G3 and four for G4. We use two crop models, the global gridded Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (gDSSAT) crop model and the crop model in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM-crop), to predict global maize yield changes. Without changing agricultural technology, we find that compared to the reference run forced by the RCP4.5 scenario, maize yields could increase in both G3 and G4 due to both the cooling effect of stratospheric sulfate injection and the CO2 fertilization effect, with the cooling effect contributing more to the increased productivity. However, the maize yield changes are not much larger than natural variability under G3, since the temperature reduction is smaller in G3 than in G4. Both crop models show similar results.

Effects of geoengineering on crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongratz, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.

2011-12-01

The potential of "solar radiation management" (SRM) to reduce future climate change and associated risks has been receiving significant attention in scientific and policy circles. SRM schemes aim to reduce global warming despite increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations by diminishing the amount of solar insolation absorbed by the Earth, for example, by injecting scattering aerosols into the atmosphere. Climate models predict that SRM could fully compensate warming at the global mean in a high-CO2 world. While reduction of global warming may offset a part of the predicted negative effects of future climate change on crop yields, SRM schemes are expected to alter regional climate and to have substantial effects on climate variables other than temperature, such as precipitation. It has therefore been warned that, overall, SRM may pose a risk to food security. Assessments of benefits and risks of geoengineering are imperative, yet such assessments are only beginning to emerge; in particular, effects on global food security have not previously been assessed. Here, for the first time, we combine climate model simulations with models of crop yield responses to climate to assess large-scale changes in yields and food production under SRM. In most crop-growing regions, we find that yield losses caused by climate changes are substantially reduced under SRM as compared with a non-geoengineered doubling of atmospheric CO2. Substantial yield losses with SRM are only found for rice in high latitudes, where the limits of low temperatures are no longer alleviated. At the same time, the beneficial effect of CO2-fertilization on plant productivity remains active. Overall therefore, SRM in our models causes global crop yields to increase. We estimate the direct effects of climate and CO2 changes on crop production, and do not quantify effects of market dynamics and management changes. We note, however, that an SRM deployment would be unlikely to maintain the economic status quo, as market shares of agricultural output may change with the different spatial pattern of climate change. More importantly, geoengineering by SRM does not address a range of other detrimental consequences of climate change, such as ocean acidification, which could also affect food security via effects on marine food webs. Finally, SRM poses substantial anticipated and unanticipated risks by interfering with complex, not fully understood systems. Therefore, despite potential positive effects of SRM on crop yields, the most certain way to reduce climate risks to global food security is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Rice: Characterizing the Environmental Response of a Gibberellic Acid-Deficient Rice for Use as a Model Crop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frantz, Jonathan M.; Pinnock, Derek; Klassen, Steve; Bugbee, Bruce

2004-01-01

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is a useful model crop plant. Rice was the first crop plant to have its complete genome sequenced. Unfortunately, even semi-dwarf rice cultivars are 60 to 90 an tail, and large plant populations cannot be grown in the confined volumes of greenhouses and growth chambers. We recently identified an extremely short (20 em tall) rice line, which is an ideal model for larger rice cultivars. We called this line "Super Dwarf rice." Here we report the response of Super Dwarf to temperature, photoperiod, photosynthetic photon flux (PPF), and factors that can affect time to head emergence. Vegetative biomass increased 6% per degree Celsius, with increasing temperature from 27 to 31 C. Seed yield decreased by 2% per degree Celsius rise in temperature, and as a result, harvest index decreased from 60 to 54%. The time to heading increased by 2 d for every hour above a 12-h photoperiod. Yield increased with increasing PPF up to the highest level tested at 1800 micro-mol/sq m/s (12-h photoperiod; 77.8 mol/sq m/d). Yield efficiency (grams per mole of photons) increased to 900 micro-mol/sq m/s and then slightly decreased at 1800 micro-mol/sq m/s . Heading was delayed by addition of gibberellic acid 3 (GA,) to the root zone but was hastened under mild N stress. Overall, short stature, high yield, high harvest index, and no extraordinary environmental requirements make Super Dwarf rice an excellent model plant for yield studies in controlled environments.

Yield Potential of Sugar Beet – Have We Hit the Ceiling?

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Christa M.; Kenter, Christine

2018-01-01

The yield of sugar beet has continuously increased in the past decades. The question arises, whether this progress will continue in the future. A key factor for increasing yield potential of the crop is breeding progress. It was related to a shift in assimilate partitioning in the plant toward more storage carbohydrates (sucrose), whereas structural carbohydrates (leaves, cell wall compounds) unintendedly declined. The yield potential of sugar beet was estimated at 24 t sugar ha-1. For maximum yield, sufficient growth factors have to be available and the crop has to be able to fully utilize them. In sugar beet, limitations result from the lacking coincidence of maximum irradiation rates and full canopy cover, sink strength for carbon assimilation and high water demand, which cannot be met by rainfall alone. After harvest, sugar losses during storage occur. The paper discusses options for a further increase in yield potential, like autumn sowing of sugar beet, increasing sink strength and related constraints. It is prospected that yield increase by further widening the ratio of storage and structural carbohydrates will come to its natural limit as a certain cell wall stability is necessary. New challenges caused by climate change and by prolonged processing campaigns will occur. Thus breeding for improved pathogen resistance and storage properties will be even more important for successful sugar beet production than a further increase in yield potential itself. PMID:29599787

Impact of Lygus spp. (Hemiptera: Miridae) on damage, yield and quality of lesquerella (Physaria fendleri), a potential new oil-seed crop.

PubMed

Naranjo, Steven E; Ellsworth, Peter C; Dierig, David A

2011-10-01

Lesquerella, Physaria fendleri (A. Gray) S. Watson, is a mustard native to the western United States and is currently being developed as a commercial source of valuable hydroxy fatty acids that can be used in a number of industrial applications, including biolubricants, biofuel additives, motor oils, resins, waxes, nylons, plastics, corrosion inhibitors, cosmetics, and coatings. The plant is cultivated as a winter-spring annual and in the desert southwest it harbors large populations of arthropods, several of which could be significant pests once production expands. Lygus spp. (Hemiptera: Miridae) are common in lesquerella and are known pests of a number of agronomic and horticultural crops where they feed primarily on reproductive tissues. A 4-yr replicated plot study was undertaken to evaluate the probable impact of Lygus spp. on production of this potential new crop. Plant damage and subsequent seed yield and quality were examined relative to variable and representative densities of Lygus spp. (0.3-4.9 insects per sweep net) resulting from variable frequency and timing of insecticide applications. Increasing damage to various fruiting structures (flowers [0.9-13.9%], buds [1.2-7.1%], and seed pods [19.4-42.5%]) was significantly associated with increasing pest abundance, particularly the abundance of nymphs, in all years. This damage, however, did not consistently translate into reductions in seed yield (481-1,336 kg/ha), individual seed weight (0.5-0.7 g per 1,000 seed), or seed oil content (21.8-30.4%), and pest abundance generally explained relatively little of the variation in crop yield and quality. Negative effects on yield were not sensitive to the timing of pest damage (early versus late season) but were more pronounced during years when potential yields were lower due to weed competition and other agronomic factors. Results suggest that if the crop is established and managed in a more optimal fashion, Lygus spp. may not significantly limit yield. Nonetheless, additional work will be needed once more uniform cultivars become available and yield effects can be more precisely measured. Densities of Lygus spp. in unsprayed lesquerella are on par with those in other known agroecosystem level sources of this pest (e.g., forage and seed alfalfa, Medicago sativa L.). Thus, lesquerella production may introduce new challenges to pest management in crops such as cotton.

Effects on crops of irrigation with treated municipal wastewaters.

PubMed

Fasciolo, G E; Meca, M I; Gabriel, E; Morábito, J

2002-01-01

The fertilizing potential of treated municipal wastewater (oxidation ditch) and crop sanitary acceptability for direct human consumption were evaluated in Mendoza, Argentina. Two experiments were performed on a pilot plot planted with garlic (1998) and onions (1999) using furrow irrigation with three types of water in 10 random blocks: treated effluent (2.5 x 10(3) MPN Escherichia coli/100 ml, 3 helminth eggs/l, and Salmonella (positive); and well water (free of microorganisms), with and without fertilizer. Two responses were evaluated: (1) crop yield, and (2) crop microbiological quality for human consumption at different times after harvest. Crop yields were compared using Variance analysis. Crops' sanitary acceptability was assessed using a two-class sampling program for Salmonella (n=10; c=0), and a three-class program for E. coli (n=5, c=2, M=10(3) and m=10 MPN/g) as proposed by the International Commission on Microbiological Specifications for Foods (ICMSF) for fresh vegetables. Wastewater irrigation acted as well water with fertilizer, increasing garlic and onion yields by 10% and 15%, respectively, compared to irrigation with well water with no fertilizer. Wastewater-irrigated garlic reached sanitary acceptability 90 days after harvest, once attached roots and soil were removed. Onions, which were cleaned immediately after harvest, met this qualification earlier than garlic (55 days). Neither the wastewater-irrigated crops nor the control crops were microbiologically acceptable for consumption raw at harvest.

Net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity of conventional and conservation agriculture system in rainfed semi arid tropics of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratibha, G.; Srinivas, I.; Rao, K. V.; Shanker, Arun K.; Raju, B. M. K.; Choudhary, Deepak K.; Srinivas Rao, K.; Srinivasarao, Ch.; Maheswari, M.

2016-11-01

Agriculture has been considered as one of the contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and it continues to increase with increase in crop production. Hence development of sustainable agro techniques with maximum crop production, and low global warming potential is need of the hour. Quantifying net global warming potential (NGWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI) of an agricultural activity is a method to assess the mitigation potential of the activity. But there is dearth of information on NGWP of conservation agriculture under rainfed conditions. Hence in this study two methods such as crop based (NGWPcrop) and soil based (NGWPsoil) were estimated from the data of the experiment initiated in 2009 in rainfed semiarid regions of Hyderabad, India with different tillage practices like conventional tillage (CT), reduced tillage (RT), zero tillage (ZT) and residue retention levels by harvesting at different heights which includes 0, 10 and 30 cm anchored residue in pigeonpea-castor systems. The results of the study revealed that under rainfed conditions CT recorded 24% higher yields over ZT, but CT and RT were on par with each other. However, the yield gap between the tillage treatments is narrowing down over 5 years of study. ZT and RT recorded 26 and 11% lower indirect GHG emissions (emissions from farm operations and input use) over CT, respectively. The percent contribution of CO2 eq. N2O emission is higher to total GHG emissions in both the crops. Both NGWPcrop, NGWPsoil, GHGIcrop, and GHGIsoil based were influenced by tillage and residue treatments. Further, castor grown on pigeonpea residue recorded 20% higher GHG emissions over pigeonpea grown on castor residues. The fuel consumption in ZT was reduced by 58% and 81% as compared to CT in pigeonpea and castor, respectively. Lower NGWP and GHGI based on crop and soil was observed with increase in crop residues and decrease in tillage intensity in both the crops. The results of the study indicate that, there is scope to reduce the NGWP emissions by reducing one tillage operation as in RT and increase in crop residue by harvesting at 10 and 30 cm height with minimal impact on the crop yields. However, the trade-off between higher yield and soil health versus GHG emissions should be considered while promoting conservation agriculture. The NGWPcrop estimation method indicated considerable benefits of residues to the soil and higher potential of GHG mitigation than by the NGWPsoil method and may overestimate the potential of GHG mitigation in agriculture system.

Evolutionary Agroecology: the potential for cooperative, high density, weed-suppressing cereals.

PubMed

Weiner, Jacob; Andersen, Sven B; Wille, Wibke K-M; Griepentrog, Hans W; Olsen, Jannie M

2010-09-01

Evolutionary theory can be applied to improve agricultural yields and/or sustainability, an approach we call Evolutionary Agroecology. The basic idea is that plant breeding is unlikely to improve attributes already favored by millions of years of natural selection, whereas there may be unutilized potential in selecting for attributes that increase total crop yield but reduce plants' individual fitness. In other words, plant breeding should be based on group selection. We explore this approach in relation to crop-weed competition, and argue that it should be possible to develop high density cereals that can utilize their initial size advantage over weeds to suppress them much better than under current practices, thus reducing or eliminating the need for chemical or mechanical weed control. We emphasize the role of density in applying group selection to crops: it is competition among individuals that generates the 'Tragedy of the Commons', providing opportunities to improve plant production by selecting for attributes that natural selection would not favor. When there is competition for light, natural selection of individuals favors a defensive strategy of 'shade avoidance', but a collective, offensive 'shading' strategy could increase weed suppression and yield in the high density, high uniformity cropping systems we envision.

Source-sink interaction: a century old concept under the light of modern molecular systems biology.

PubMed

Chang, Tian-Gen; Zhu, Xin-Guang; Raines, Christine

2017-07-20

Many approaches to engineer source strength have been proposed to enhance crop yield potential. However, a well-co-ordinated source-sink relationship is required finally to realize the promised increase in crop yield potential in the farmer's field. Source-sink interaction has been intensively studied for decades, and a vast amount of knowledge about the interaction in different crops and under different environments has been accumulated. In this review, we first introduce the basic concepts of source, sink and their interactions, then summarize current understanding of how source and sink can be manipulated through both environmental control and genetic manipulations. We show that the source-sink interaction underlies the diverse responses of crops to the same perturbations and argue that development of a molecular systems model of source-sink interaction is required towards a rational manipulation of the source-sink relationship for increased yield. We finally discuss both bottom-up and top-down routes to develop such a model and emphasize that a community effort is needed for development of this model. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Soil Eukaryotic Microorganism Succession as Affected by Continuous Cropping of Peanut - Pathogenic and Beneficial Fungi were Selected

PubMed Central

Chen, Mingna; Li, Xiao; Yang, Qingli; Chi, Xiaoyuan; Pan, Lijuan; Chen, Na; Yang, Zhen; Wang, Tong; Wang, Mian; Yu, Shanlin

2012-01-01

Peanut is an important oil crop worldwide and shows considerable adaptability but growth and yield are negatively affected by continuous cropping. Soil micro-organisms are efficient bio-indicators of soil quality and plant health and are critical to the sustainability of soil-based ecosystem function and to successful plant growth. In this study, 18S rRNA gene clone library analyses were employed to study the succession progress of soil eukaryotic micro-organisms under continuous peanut cultivation. Eight libraries were constructed for peanut over three continuous cropping cycles and its representative growth stages. Cluster analyses indicated that soil micro-eukaryotic assemblages obtained from the same peanut cropping cycle were similar, regardless of growth period. Six eukaryotic groups were found and fungi predominated in all libraries. The fungal populations showed significant dynamic change and overall diversity increased over time under continuous peanut cropping. The abundance and/or diversity of clones affiliated with Eurotiales, Hypocreales, Glomerales, Orbiliales, Mucorales and Tremellales showed an increasing trend with continuous cropping but clones affiliated with Agaricales, Cantharellales, Pezizales and Pyxidiophorales decreased in abundance and/or diversity over time. The current data, along with data from previous studies, demonstrated that the soil microbial community was affected by continuous cropping, in particular, the pathogenic and beneficial fungi that were positively selected over time, which is commonplace in agro-ecosystems. The trend towards an increase in fungal pathogens and simplification of the beneficial fungal community could be important factors contributing to the decline in peanut growth and yield over many years of continuous cropping. PMID:22808226

[Light competition and productivity of agroforestry system in loess area of Weibei in Shaanxi].

PubMed

Peng, Xiao-bang; Cai, Jing; Jiang, Zai-min; Zhang, Yuan-ying; Zhang, Shuo-xin

2008-11-01

Agroforestry is the most effective way for the restoration of disturbed land on Loess Plateau and the development of poorly local economy. Taking the tree-based intercropping systems of walnut or plum with soybean or pepper in the loess area of Weibei as test objects, the photosynthesis, growth, and yield of soybean (Qindou 8) and pepper (Shanjiao 981) in the systems were studied. The results showed that the photosynthetic active radiation (PAR), net photosynthetic rate (Pn), growth, and yield of individual soybean or pepper plants were significantly decreased, with the effects increased with decreasing distance from tree rows. Leaf water potential was not significantly or poorly correlated with the Pn, growth, and yield of the two crops. However, there were significant positive correlations between the soil moisture content in 10-20 cm layer and the biomass and yield of soybean, and the above-ground biomass of pepper. PAR was highly correlated with the yield of both crops, which indicated that light competition was one of the key factors leading to the decrease of crop yield.

Expression of the Nitrate Transporter Gene OsNRT1.1A/OsNPF6.3 Confers High Yield and Early Maturation in Rice.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Hu, Bin; Yuan, Dingyang; Liu, Yongqiang; Che, Ronghui; Hu, Yingchun; Ou, Shujun; Liu, Yongxin; Zhang, Zhihua; Wang, Hongru; Li, Hua; Jiang, Zhimin; Zhang, Zhengli; Gao, Xiaokai; Qiu, Yahong; Meng, Xiangbing; Liu, Yongxin; Bai, Yang; Liang, Yan; Wang, Yiqin; Zhang, Lianhe; Li, Legong; Sodmergen; Jing, Haichun; Li, Jiayang; Chu, Chengcai

2018-03-01

Nitrogen (N) is a major driving force for crop yield improvement, but application of high levels of N delays flowering, prolonging maturation and thus increasing the risk of yield losses. Therefore, traits that enable utilization of high levels of N without delaying maturation will be highly desirable for crop breeding. Here, we show that OsNRT1.1A (OsNPF6.3), a member of the rice ( Oryza sativa ) nitrate transporter 1/peptide transporter family, is involved in regulating N utilization and flowering, providing a target to produce high yield and early maturation simultaneously. OsNRT.1A has functionally diverged from previously reported NRT1.1 genes in plants and functions in upregulating the expression of N utilization-related genes not only for nitrate but also for ammonium, as well as flowering-related genes. Relative to the wild type, osnrt1.1a mutants exhibited reduced N utilization and late flowering. By contrast, overexpression of OsNRT1.1A in rice greatly improved N utilization and grain yield, and maturation time was also significantly shortened. These effects were further confirmed in different rice backgrounds and also in Arabidopsis thaliana Our study paves a path for the use of a single gene to dramatically increase yield and shorten maturation time for crops, outcomes that promise to substantially increase world food security. © 2018 American Society of Plant Biologists. All rights reserved.

Expression of the Nitrate Transporter Gene OsNRT1.1A/OsNPF6.3 Confers High Yield and Early Maturation in Rice[OPEN

PubMed Central

Wang, Wei; Hu, Bin; Liu, Yongqiang; Che, Ronghui; Hu, Yingchun; Zhang, Zhihua; Wang, Hongru; Li, Hua; Jiang, Zhimin; Zhang, Zhengli; Gao, Xiaokai; Qiu, Yahong; Meng, Xiangbing; Liu, Yongxin; Bai, Yang; Liang, Yan; Wang, Yiqin; Zhang, Lianhe; Li, Legong; Sodmergen; Jing, Haichun

2018-01-01

Nitrogen (N) is a major driving force for crop yield improvement, but application of high levels of N delays flowering, prolonging maturation and thus increasing the risk of yield losses. Therefore, traits that enable utilization of high levels of N without delaying maturation will be highly desirable for crop breeding. Here, we show that OsNRT1.1A (OsNPF6.3), a member of the rice (Oryza sativa) nitrate transporter 1/peptide transporter family, is involved in regulating N utilization and flowering, providing a target to produce high yield and early maturation simultaneously. OsNRT.1A has functionally diverged from previously reported NRT1.1 genes in plants and functions in upregulating the expression of N utilization-related genes not only for nitrate but also for ammonium, as well as flowering-related genes. Relative to the wild type, osnrt1.1a mutants exhibited reduced N utilization and late flowering. By contrast, overexpression of OsNRT1.1A in rice greatly improved N utilization and grain yield, and maturation time was also significantly shortened. These effects were further confirmed in different rice backgrounds and also in Arabidopsis thaliana. Our study paves a path for the use of a single gene to dramatically increase yield and shorten maturation time for crops, outcomes that promise to substantially increase world food security. PMID:29475937

The Impact of Insects on Second-Year Cone Crops in Red Pine Seed-Production Areas

Treesearch

William J. Mattson

1968-01-01

Second-year cone crops in red pine seed-production areas have been severely damaged by five species of insects. Control of the two most destructive pests could increase present seed yields in most areas by at least 50 percent. Some seed-production areas may not produce harvestable seed crops until cone-insect populations are suppressed.

High Resolution Modelling of Crop Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirmasoudi, S. S.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.

2014-12-01

Crop production is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climatic variability and change. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and other greenhouse gases are causing increases in global temperature. In western North America, water supply is largely derived from mountain snowmelt. Climate change will have a significant impact on mountain snowpack and subsequently, the snow-derived water supply. This will strain water supplies and increase water demand in areas with substantial irrigation agriculture. Increasing temperatures may create heat stress for some crops regardless of soil water supply, and increasing surface O3 and other pollutants may damage crops and ecosystems. CO2 fertilization may or may not be an advantage in future. This work is part of a larger study that will address a series of questions based on a range of future climate scenarios for several watersheds in western North America. The key questions are: (1) how will snowmelt and rainfall runoff vary in future; (2) how will seasonal and inter-annual soil water supply vary, and how might that impacts food supplies; (3) how might heat stress impact (some) crops even with adequate soil water; (4) will CO2 fertilization alter crop yields; and (5) will pollution loads, particularly O3, cause meaningful changes to crop yields? The Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) Spatial Hydrometeorological Model is an innovative, efficient, high-resolution model designed to assess climate driven changes in mountain snowpack derived water supplies. We will link GENESYS to the CROPWAT crop model system to assess climate driven changes in water requirement and associated crop productivity for a range of future climate scenarios. Literature bases studies will be utilised to develop approximate crop response functions for heat stress, CO2 fertilization and for O3 damages. The overall objective is to create modeling systems that allows meaningful assessment of agricultural productivity at a watershed scale under a range of climate scenarios.

Functional Traits Differ between Cereal Crop Progenitors and Other Wild Grasses Gathered in the Neolithic Fertile Crescent

PubMed Central

Cunniff, Jennifer; Wilkinson, Sarah; Charles, Michael; Jones, Glynis; Rees, Mark; Osborne, Colin P.

2014-01-01

The reasons why some plant species were selected as crops and others were abandoned during the Neolithic emergence of agriculture are poorly understood. We tested the hypothesis that the traits of Fertile Crescent crop progenitors were advantageous in the fertile, disturbed habitats surrounding early settlements and in cultivated fields. We screened functional traits related to competition and disturbance in a group of grass species that were increasingly exploited by early plant gatherers, and that were later domesticated (crop progenitors); and in a set of grass species for which there is archaeological evidence of gathering, but which were never domesticated (wild species). We hypothesised that crop progenitors would have greater seed mass, growth rate, height and yield than wild species, as these traits are indicative of greater competitive ability, and that crop progenitors would be more resilient to defoliation. Our results show that crop progenitors have larger seed mass than wild species, germinate faster and have greater seedling size. Increased seed size is weakly but positively correlated with a higher growth rate, which is primarily driven by greater biomass assimilation per unit leaf area. Crop progenitors also tend to have a taller stature, greater grain yield and higher resilience to defoliation. Collectively, the data are consistent with the hypothesis that adaptations to competition and disturbance gave crop progenitors a selective advantage in the areas surrounding early human settlements and in cultivated environments, leading to their adoption as crops through processes of unconscious selection. PMID:24489941

Red cabbage yield, heavy metal content, water use and soil chemical characteristics under wastewater irrigation.

PubMed

Tunc, Talip; Sahin, Ustun

2016-04-01

The objective of this 2-year field study was to evaluate the effects of drip irrigation with urban wastewaters reclaimed using primary (filtration) and secondary (filtration and aeration) processes on red cabbage growth and fresh yield, heavy metal content, water use and efficiency and soil chemical properties. Filtered wastewater (WW1), filtered and aerated wastewater (WW2), freshwater and filtered wastewater mix (1:1 by volume) (WW3) and freshwater (FW) were investigated as irrigation water treatments. Crop evapotranspiration decreased significantly, while water use efficiency increased under wastewater treatments compared to FW. WW1 treatment had the lowest value (474.2 mm), while FW treatments had the highest value (556.7 mm). The highest water use efficiency was found in the WW1 treatment as 8.41 kg m(-3), and there was a twofold increase with regard to the FW. Wastewater irrigation increased soil fertility and therefore red cabbage yield. WW2 treatment produced the highest total fresh yield (40.02 Mg ha(-1)). However, wastewater irrigation increased the heavy metal content in crops and soil. Cd content in red cabbage heads was above the safe limit, and WW1 treatment had the highest value (0.168 mg kg(-1)). WW3 treatment among wastewater treatments is less risky in terms of soil and crop heavy metal pollution and faecal coliform contamination. Therefore, WW3 wastewater irrigation for red cabbage could be recommended for higher yield and water efficiency with regard to freshwater irrigation.

Residue management increases fallow water conservation and yield deficit irrigated crops grown in rotation with wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

No-tillage (NT) residue management provides cover to increase precipitation capture compared with disk tillage (DT) or in the absence of a cover crop. Therefore, NT has the potential to reduce irrigation withdrawals from the declining Ogallala Aquifer. In a 4-year study, we quantified DT and NT effe...

Diverse rotations and poultry litter improves soybean yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Continuous cropping systems without rotations or cover crops are perceived as unsustainable for long-term yield and soil health. Continuous systems, defined as continually producing a crop on the same parcel of land for more than three years, is thought to reduce yields. Given that crop rotations a...

A heterogeneous landscape does not guarantee high crop pollination

PubMed Central

Hambäck, Peter A.; Lemessa, Debissa; Nemomissa, Sileshi; Hylander, Kristoffer

2016-01-01

The expansion of pollinator-dependent crops, especially in the developing world, together with reports of worldwide pollinator declines, raises concern of possible yield gaps. Farmers directly reliant on pollination services for food supply often live in regions where our knowledge of pollination services is poor. In a manipulative experiment replicated at 23 sites across an Ethiopian agricultural landscape, we found poor pollination services and severe pollen limitation in a common oil crop. With supplementary pollination, the yield increased on average by 91%. Despite the heterogeneous agricultural matrix, we found a low bee abundance, which may explain poor pollination services. The variation in pollen limitation was unrelated to surrounding forest cover, local bee richness and bee abundance. While practices that commonly increase pollinators (restricted pesticide use, flower strips) are an integral part of the landscape, these elements are apparently insufficient. Management to increase pollination services is therefore in need of urgent investigation. PMID:27629036

Efficacy of Cotton Root Destruction and Winter Cover Crops for Suppression of Hoplolaimus columbus.

PubMed

Davis, R F; Baird, R E; McNeil, R D

2000-12-01

The efficacy of rye (Secale cereale) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) winter cover crops and cotton stalk and root destruction (i.e., pulling them up) were evaluated in field tests during two growing seasons for Hoplolaimus columbus management in cotton. The effect of removing debris from the field following root destruction also was evaluated. Wheat and rye produced similar amounts of biomass, and both crops produced more biomass (P

Efficacy of Cotton Root Destruction and Winter Cover Crops for Suppression of Hoplolaimus columbus

PubMed Central

Davis, R. F.; Baird, R. E.; McNeil, R. D.

2000-01-01

The efficacy of rye (Secale cereale) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) winter cover crops and cotton stalk and root destruction (i.e., pulling them up) were evaluated in field tests during two growing seasons for Hoplolaimus columbus management in cotton. The effect of removing debris from the field following root destruction also was evaluated. Wheat and rye produced similar amounts of biomass, and both crops produced more biomass (P ≤ 0.05) following cotton root destruction. Cover crops did not suppress H. columbus population levels or increase subsequent cotton yields. Cotton root destruction did not affect cotton stand or plant height the following year. Cotton root destruction lowered (P ≤ 0.05) H. columbus population levels at planting in 1996 but not in 1997, but cotton yield was not increased by root destruction in either year. Removing debris following root destruction did not lower H. columbus levels compared to leaving debris on the soil surface. This study suggests that a rye or wheat cover crop or cotton root destruction following harvest is ineffective for H. columbus management in cotton. PMID:19271009

Beyond conservation agriculture.

PubMed

Giller, Ken E; Andersson, Jens A; Corbeels, Marc; Kirkegaard, John; Mortensen, David; Erenstein, Olaf; Vanlauwe, Bernard

2015-01-01

Global support for Conservation Agriculture (CA) as a pathway to Sustainable Intensification is strong. CA revolves around three principles: no-till (or minimal soil disturbance), soil cover, and crop rotation. The benefits arising from the ease of crop management, energy/cost/time savings, and soil and water conservation led to widespread adoption of CA, particularly on large farms in the Americas and Australia, where farmers harness the tools of modern science: highly-sophisticated machines, potent agrochemicals, and biotechnology. Over the past 10 years CA has been promoted among smallholder farmers in the (sub-) tropics, often with disappointing results. Growing evidence challenges the claims that CA increases crop yields and builds-up soil carbon although increased stability of crop yields in dry climates is evident. Our analyses suggest pragmatic adoption on larger mechanized farms, and limited uptake of CA by smallholder farmers in developing countries. We propose a rigorous, context-sensitive approach based on Systems Agronomy to analyze and explore sustainable intensification options, including the potential of CA. There is an urgent need to move beyond dogma and prescriptive approaches to provide soil and crop management options for farmers to enable the Sustainable Intensification of agriculture.

Linking Field and Satellite Observations to Reveal Differences in Single vs. Double-Cropped Soybean Yields in Central Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeffries, G. R.; Cohn, A.

2016-12-01

Soy-corn double cropping (DC) has been widely adopted in Central Brazil alongside single cropped (SC) soybean production. DC involves different cropping calendars, soy varieties, and may be associated with different crop yield patterns and volatility than SC. Study of the performance of the region's agriculture in a changing climate depends on tracking differences in the productivity of SC vs. DC, but has been limited by crop yield data that conflate the two systems. We predicted SC and DC yields across Central Brazil, drawing on field observations and remotely sensed data. We first modeled field yield estimates as a function of remotely sensed DC status and vegetation index (VI) metrics, and other management and biophysical factors. We then used the statistical model estimated to predict SC and DC soybean yields at each 500 m2 grid cell of Central Brazil for harvest years 2001 - 2015. The yield estimation model was constructed using 1) a repeated cross-sectional survey of soybean yields and management factors for years 2007-2015, 2) a custom agricultural land cover classification dataset which assimilates earlier datasets for the region, and 3) 500m 8-day MODIS image composites used to calculate the wide dynamic range vegetation index (WDRVI) and derivative metrics such as area under the curve for WDRVI values in critical crop development periods. A statistical yield estimation model which primarily entails WDRVI metrics, DC status, and spatial fixed effects was developed on a subset of the yield dataset. Model validation was conducted by predicting previously withheld yield records, and then assessing error and goodness-of-fit for predicted values with metrics including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), and R2. We found a statistical yield estimation model which incorporates WDRVI and DC status to be way to estimate crop yields over the region. Statistical properties of the resulting gridded yield dataset may be valuable for understanding linkages between crop yields, farm management factors, and climate.

Decoupling the deep: crop rotations, fertilization and soil physico-chemical properties down the profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobley, Eleanor; Honermeier, Bernd; Don, Axel; Amelung, Wulf; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

2017-04-01

Crop fertilization provides vital plant nutrients (e.g. NPK) to ensure yield security but is also associated with negative environmental impacts. In particular, inorganic, mineral nitrogen (Nmin) fertilization leads to emissions during its energy intensive production as well as Nmin leaching to receiving waters. Incorporating legumes into crop rotations can provide organic N to the soil and subsequent crops, reducing the need for mineral N fertilizer and its negative environmental impacts. An added bonus is the potential to enhance soil organic carbon stocks, thereby reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In this study we assessed the effects of legumes in rotation and fertilization regimes on the depth distribution - down to 1 m - of total soil nitrogen (Ntot), soil organic carbon (SOC) as well as isotopic composition (δ13C, δ15N), electrical conductivity and bulk density as well as agricultural yields at a long-term field experiment in Gießen, Germany. Fertilization had significant but small impacts on the soil chemical environment, most particularly the salt content of the soil, with PK fertilization increasing electrical conductivity throughout the soil profile. Similarly, fertilization resulted in a small reduction of soil pH throughout the soil profile. N fertilization, in particular, significantly increased yields, whereas PK fertilizer had only marginal yield effects, indicating that these systems are N limited. This N limitation was confirmed by significant yield benefits with leguminous crops in rotation, even in combination with mineral N fertilizer. The soil was physically and chemically influenced by the choice of crop rotation. Adding clover as a green mulch crop once every 4 years resulted in an enrichment of total N and SOC at the surface compared with fava beans and maize, but only in combination with PK fertilization. In contrast, fava beans and to a lesser extent maize in rotation lowered bulk densities in the subsoil compared with clover. This resulted in a reduction of N density at depth, which was not mirrored in C densities, indicating that fava beans decouple C and N cycles in the deep soil profile. We then tested whether these effects are a result of plant (i.e. enhanced rooting depth associated with lowered subsoil bulk density) or microbial (i.e. N-cycling and denitrification processes) activities, by investigating the isotopic signatures of C and N down the profile. Our results indicate that the selection of crop rotation influences soil C and N cycling and depth distribution. Although mineral N fertilizer has significant benefits for yield, the choice of crop rotation has a greater influence on soil C and N cycling and specifically the addition of leguminous plants into rotation can provide additional yield benefits and stability. Incorporating legumes into crop rotations affects soil physical and chemical properties and decouples C and N cycles in the deep soil profile, indicating different nutrient and water cycling processes in the deep soil profile.

Influence of tillage practices and straw incorporation on soil aggregates, organic carbon, and crop yields in a rice-wheat rotation system

PubMed Central

Song, Ke; Yang, Jianjun; Xue, Yong; Lv, Weiguang; Zheng, Xianqing; Pan, Jianjun

2016-01-01

In this study, a fixed-site field experiment was conducted to study the influence of different combinations of tillage and straw incorporation management on carbon storage in different-sized soil aggregates and on crop yield after three years of rice-wheat rotation. Compared to conventional tillage, the percentages of >2 mm macroaggregates and water-stable macroaggregates in rice-wheat double-conservation tillage (zero-tillage and straw incorporation) were increased 17.22% and 36.38% in the 0–15 cm soil layer and 28.93% and 66.34% in the 15–30 cm soil layer, respectively. Zero tillage and straw incorporation also increased the mean weight diameter and stability of the soil aggregates. In surface soil (0–15 cm), the maximum proportion of total aggregated carbon was retained with 0.25–0.106 mm aggregates, and rice-wheat double-conservation tillage had the greatest ability to hold the organic carbon (33.64 g kg−1). However, different forms occurred at higher levels in the 15–30 cm soil layer under the conventional tillage. In terms of crop yield, the rice grown under conventional tillage and the wheat under zero tillage showed improved equivalent rice yields of 8.77% and 6.17% compared to rice-wheat double-cropping under zero tillage or conventional tillage, respectively. PMID:27812038

A comprehensively quantitative method of evaluating the impact of drought on crop yield using daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model.

PubMed

Wang, Qianfeng; Wu, Jianjun; Li, Xiaohan; Zhou, Hongkui; Yang, Jianhua; Geng, Guangpo; An, Xueli; Liu, Leizhen; Tang, Zhenghong

2017-04-01

The quantitative evaluation of the impact of drought on crop yield is one of the most important aspects in agricultural water resource management. To assess the impact of drought on wheat yield, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop growth model and daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which is based on daily meteorological data, are adopted in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The winter wheat crop yields are estimated at 28 stations, after calibrating the cultivar coefficients based on the experimental site data, and SPEI data was taken 11 times across the growth season from 1981 to 2010. The relationship between estimated yield and multi-scale SPEI were analyzed. The optimum time scale SPEI to monitor drought during the crop growth period was determined. The reference yield was determined by averaging the yields from numerous non-drought years. From this data, we propose a comprehensive quantitative method which can be used to predict the impact of drought on wheat yields by combining the daily multi-scale SPEI and crop growth process model. This method was tested in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. The results suggested that estimation of calibrated EPIC was a good predictor of crop yield in the Huang Huai Hai Plain, with lower RMSE (15.4 %) between estimated yield and observed yield at six agrometeorological stations. The soil moisture at planting time was affected by the precipitation and evapotranspiration during the previous 90 days (about 3 months) in the Huang Huai Hai Plain. SPEI G90 was adopted as the optimum time scale SPEI to identify the drought and non-drought years, and identified a drought year in 2000. The water deficit in the year 2000 was significant, and the rate of crop yield reduction did not completely correspond with the volume of water deficit. Our proposed comprehensive method which quantitatively evaluates the impact of drought on crop yield is reliable. The results of this study further our understanding why the adoption of counter measures against drought is important and direct farmers to choose drought-resistant crops.

Drinking From the Same Straw: Crop Growth and Evidence of Water Transfer from Native Shrubs to Millet in a Sahelian Agro-Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogie, N. A.; Bayala, R.; Fogel, M. L.; Diedhiou, I.; Dick, R.; Ghezzehei, T. A.

2015-12-01

A changing climate along with human and animal population pressure can have a devastating effect on crop yields and food security in the Sudano-Sahel. Agricultural solutions to address soil degradation and crop water stress are needed to combat this increasingly difficult situation. Significant differences in crop success have been observed in peanut and millet grown in association with two native evergreen shrubs Piliostigma reticulatum, and Guiera senegalensis at the sites of Nioro du Rip and Keur Matar, respectively. We investigate how farmers can increase crop productivity by capitalizing on the evolutionary adaptation of native shrubs to the harsh Sudano-Sahelian environment as well as the physical mechanisms at work in the system that can lead to more robust yields. Soil moisture, transpiration rate, crop growth and soil and leaf water potential data were collected during a dry season millet irrigation experiment where stress was imposed in the intercropped system. Despite lower soil moisture content, crops grown in association with shrubs have increased biomass production and a faster development cycle. An isotopic tracer study investigating hydraulic redistribution was carried out by injecting deuterated water into the roots of three shrubs at one meter depth and sampling shrubs and nearby crops for isotopic analysis of plant water. Deuterium Enriched water was found in the shrubs of two out of three plots. Deuterium enriched water was found in the crops and shrubs in all three plots. These findings build on work that was completed in 2004 at the site, but point to larger differences in crop growth and strong evidence for the sharing of hydraulically redistributed water. Using even the limited resources that farmers possess, this agroforestry technique can be expanded over wide swaths of the Sahel.

Supplemental irrigation as an initiative to support water and food security: A global evaluation of the potential to support and increase precipitation-fed wheat production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smilovic, M.; Gleeson, T. P.; Adamowski, J. F.; Langhorn, C.; Kienzle, S. W.

2016-12-01

Supplemental irrigation is the practice of supporting precipitation-fed agriculture with limited irrigation. Precipitation-fed agriculture dominates the agricultural landscape, but is vulnerable to intraseasonal and interannual variability in precipitation and climate. The interplay between food security, water resources, ecosystem health, energy, and livelihoods necessitates evaluating and integrating initiatives that increase agricultural production while reducing demands on water resources. Supplemental irrigation is the practice of minimally irrigating in an effort to stabilize and increase agricultural production, as well as increase water productivity - the amount of crop produced per unit of water. The potential of supplemental irrigation to support both water and food security has yet to be evaluated at regional and global scales. We evaluate whether supplemental irrigation could stabilize and increase agricultural production of wheat by determining locally-calibrated water use-crop yield relationships, known as crop-water production functions. Crop-water production functions are functions of seasonal water use and crop yield, and previous efforts have largely ignored the effects of the temporal distribution of water use throughout the growing season. We significantly improve upon these efforts and provide an opportunity to evaluate supplemental irrigation that appropriately acknowledges the effects of irrigation scheduling. Integrating agroclimatic and crop data with the crop-water model Aquacrop, we determine the increases in wheat production achieved by maximizing water productivity, sharing limited water between different years, and other irrigation scenarios. The methodology presented and evaluation of supplemental irrigation provides water mangers, policy makers, governments, and non-governmental organizations the tools to appropriately understand and determine the potential of this initiative to support precipitation-fed agriculture.

Crop water productivity under increasing irrigation capacities in Romania. A spatially-explicit assessment of winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the southern lowlands of the country

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogaru, Diana

2016-04-01

Improved water use efficiency in agriculture is a key issue in terms of sustainable management and consumption of water resources in the context of peoples' increasing food demands and preferences, economic growth and agricultural adaptation options to climate variability and change. Crop Water Productivity (CWP), defined as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to actual evapotranspiration or as the ratio of yield (or value of harvested crop) to volume of supplied irrigation water (Molden et al., 1998), is a useful indicator in the evaluation of water use efficiency and ultimately of cropland management, particularly in the case of regions affected by or prone to drought and where irrigation application is essential for achieving expected productions. The present study investigates the productivity of water in winter wheat and maize cropping systems in the Romanian Plain (49 594 sq. km), an important agricultural region in the southern part of the country which is increasingly affected by drought and dry spells (Sandu and Mateescu, 2014). The scope of the analysis is to assess the gains and losses in CWP for the two crops, by considering increased irrigated cropland and improved fertilization, these being the most common measures potentially and already implemented by the farmers. In order to capture the effects of such measures on agricultural water use, the GIS-based EPIC crop-growth model (GEPIC) (Williams et al., 1989; Liu, 2009) was employed to simulate yields, seasonal evapotranspiration from crops and volume of irrigation water in the Romanian Plain for the 2002 - 2013 interval with focus on 2007 and 2010, two representative years for dry and wet periods, respectively. The GEPIC model operates on a daily time step, while the geospatial input datasets for this analysis (e.g. climate data, soil classes and soil parameters, land use) were harmonized at 1km resolution grid cell. The sources of the spatial data are mainly the national profile agencies/institutes, providing the data at fine resolutions. The increased irrigated area was accounted according to the reported increased percentages of the irrigated area out of the total area equipped for irrigation, as an expected outcome of public irrigation systems rehabilitation schemes (MADR, 2011), while the optimum Nitrogen fertilizer rates for wheat and maize were established according to several field experiments made on irrigated and rain-fed wheat and maize plots in south Romania (Hera and Borlan, 1980). The effects of such farming measures on yields were compared to a baseline condition given by actual irrigated area and fertilization rates. The preliminary results show that potential gains in CWP could be obtained through improved fertilizer management and water allocation in winter wheat cropping systems, particularly in the dry periods, while in maize cropping systems CWP is more sensitive to water than to optimum fertilization rates. Irrigation water supply increases the stability of yields in both cropping systems, although regional differences can be observed across the study area, thus augmenting the relevance and the need for investigations on sustainable use of irrigation water in Romania. As such, this study could represent an information base for further analyses on yield potential under current and future climatic conditions, on impacts of land use patterns and farming practices on crop production in Romania, etc. Keywords: agricultural water use, crop water productivity, irrigation water, GEPIC, Romania References: Molden, D.J., Sakthivadivel, R., Perry, C.J., de Fraiture, C., Kloezen, W.H. (1998). Indicators for comparing performance of irrigated agricultural systems, Research Report 20, IWMI: Colombo, Sri Lanka. Sandu, I., Mateescu E. (2014). Current and prospective climate changes in Romania (in Romanian), in vol. Climate change: a major challenge for research in agriculture (ed. Saulescu, N.), Romanian Academy Publishing House, 17-36. Williams, J.R., Jones, C.A., Kiniry, J.R., Spanel, D.A. (1989). The EPIC crop growth model. Trans. ASAE 32 (2), 497-511. Liu, J. (2009). A GIS-based tool for modelling large-scale crop-water relations, Environmental Modelling & Software, 24, 411-422. MADR (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), (2011). Rehabilitation and reform in the irrigation sector. Strategy of investment in the irrigation sector (in Romanian), Fidman Merk at., Bucharest, http://old.madr.ro/pages/strategie/strategie-investitii-irigatii.pdf. Hera, C., Borlan, Z. (1980). Guide for fertilization planning (in Romanian), 2nd edition, CERES Publishing House, Bucharest, Romania, 341p.

Improving the Agronomy of Alyssum murale for Extensive Phytomining: A Five-Year Field Study.

PubMed

Bani, Aida; Echevarria, Guillaume; Sulçe, Sulejman; Morel, Jean Louis

2015-01-01

Large ultramafic areas exist in Albania, which could be suitable for phytomining with native Alyssum murale. We undertook a five-year field experiment on an ultramafic Vertisol, aimed at optimizing a low-cost Ni-phytoextraction crop of A. murale which is adapted to the Balkans. The following aspects were studied on 18-m2 plots in natural conditions: the effect of (i) plant phenology and element distribution, (ii) plant nutrition and fertilization, (iii) plant cover and weed control and (iv), planting technique (natural cover vs. sown crop). The optimal harvest time was set at the mid-flowering stage when Ni concentration and biomass yield were highest. The application of N, P, and K fertilizers, and especially a split 100-kg ha(-1) N application, increased the density of A. murale against all other species. It significantly increased shoot yield, without reducing Ni concentration. In natural stands, the control of graminaceous weeds required the use of an anti-monocots herbicide. However, after the optimization of fertilization and harvest time, weed control procured little benefit. Finally, cropping sown A. murale was more efficient than enhancing native stands and gave higher biomass and phytoextraction yields; biomass yields progressively improved from 0.3 to 9.0 t ha(-1) and phytoextracted Ni increased from 1.7 to 105 kg ha(-1).

Estimating climate change, CO2 and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bannayan, M.; Mansoori, H.; Rezaei, E. Eyshi

2014-04-01

Wheat is the main food for the majority of Iran's population. Precise estimation of wheat yield change in future is essential for any possible revision of management strategies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change, CO2 concentration, technology development and their integrated effects on wheat production under future climate change. This study was performed under two scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): regional economic (A2) and global environmental (B1). Crop production was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) in comparison with a baseline year (2005) for Khorasan province located in the northeast of Iran. Four study locations in the study area included Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar. The effect of technology development was calculated by fitting a regression equation between the observed wheat yields against historical years considering yield potential increase and yield gap reduction as technology development. Yield relative increase per unit change of CO2 concentration (1 ppm-1) was considered 0.05 % and was used to implement the effect of elevated CO2. The HadCM3 general circulation model along with the CSM-CERES-Wheat crop model were used to project climate change effects on wheat crop yield. Our results illustrate that, among all the factors considered, technology development provided the highest impact on wheat yield change. Highest wheat yield increase across all locations and time periods was obtained under the A2 scenario. Among study locations, Mashhad showed the highest change in wheat yield. Yield change compared to baseline ranged from -28 % to 56 % when the integration of all factors was considered across all locations. It seems that achieving higher yield of wheat in future may be expected in northeast Iran assuming stable improvements in production technology.

Estimating climate change, CO2 and technology development effects on wheat yield in northeast Iran.

PubMed

Bannayan, M; Mansoori, H; Rezaei, E Eyshi

2014-04-01

Wheat is the main food for the majority of Iran's population. Precise estimation of wheat yield change in future is essential for any possible revision of management strategies. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change, CO2 concentration, technology development and their integrated effects on wheat production under future climate change. This study was performed under two scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): regional economic (A2) and global environmental (B1). Crop production was projected for three future time periods (2020, 2050 and 2080) in comparison with a baseline year (2005) for Khorasan province located in the northeast of Iran. Four study locations in the study area included Mashhad, Birjand, Bojnourd and Sabzevar. The effect of technology development was calculated by fitting a regression equation between the observed wheat yields against historical years considering yield potential increase and yield gap reduction as technology development. Yield relative increase per unit change of CO2 concentration (1 ppm(-1)) was considered 0.05 % and was used to implement the effect of elevated CO2. The HadCM3 general circulation model along with the CSM-CERES-Wheat crop model were used to project climate change effects on wheat crop yield. Our results illustrate that, among all the factors considered, technology development provided the highest impact on wheat yield change. Highest wheat yield increase across all locations and time periods was obtained under the A2 scenario. Among study locations, Mashhad showed the highest change in wheat yield. Yield change compared to baseline ranged from -28 % to 56 % when the integration of all factors was considered across all locations. It seems that achieving higher yield of wheat in future may be expected in northeast Iran assuming stable improvements in production technology.

PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassman, Kenneth G.

2007-03-01

There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data source: faostat.fao.org/site/395/default.aspx. Given this situation, the question of whether global climate change will have a net positive, negative, or negligible impact on crop yields takes on a larger significance because additional hundreds of millions of people could be at risk of hunger and the window of opportunity for mounting an effective response is closing. To answer this question, Lobell and Field use an innovative empirical/geostatistical approach to estimate the impact of increased temperature since 1980 on crop yields—a period when global mean temperature increased ~0.4 °C [2]. For three major crops—maize, wheat, and barley—there was a significant negative response to increased temperature. For all six crops evaluated (also including rice, soybean, and sorghum), the net impact of climate trends on yield since 1980 was negative. While the approach used by Lobell and Field can be questioned on several pointsNote2, the body of their work represents an ambitious global assessment of recent climate impact on crop yields. Most noteworthy is their conclusion that: the combined effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate trends have largely cancelled each other over the past two decades. They contrast their finding with the conclusion of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that CO2 benefits will exceed temperature-related yield reductions up to a 2 °C increase in mean temperature [3]. It should be noted, however, that the IPCC is coming out with a new assessment to be released in April 2007 (www.ipcc.ch/), and it remains to be seen if this conclusion still holds. The purpose here is not to support or challenge the conclusions of either Lobell and Field or the IPCC, but rather to highlight the fact that there are substantive differences between results obtained from geostatistical assessments based on recent climate trends and actual crop yields versus assessments based on results from controlled experiments in growth chambers, greenhouses, and field enclosures and crop modeling. And while there appears to be good agreement on the predicted impact of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on crop yields across a wide range of studies conducted using different approaches [4], there is less convincing evidence on the impact of warming temperatures. There are three reasons for greater uncertainty about temperature effects. First, it is logistically more difficult to control temperature at elevated levels in studies that allow crops to grow in an 'open-air' environment comparable to field-grown plants. The 'free-air carbon dioxide enrichment' (FACE) systems were specifically designed to avoid such problems for study of CO2 effects and appear to have been largely successful [4]. In contrast, growth chamber, greenhouse, and small-enclosure studies used for temperature-effect experiments have confounding effects associated with differences in humidity, air turbulence, and reduced light intensity that result from the need to more fully enclose experimental units with a transparent barrier to achieve adequate temperature control. Second, unlike CO2 effects, yield response to temperature is often discontinuous. In many crops, pollination fails if temperatures rise above a critical threshold, which can result in dramatic yield reductions due to very small changes in temperature. Also, because climate change is predicted to increase both average temperature and temperature variability, changes in both factors must be evaluated in experiments with realistic growth conditions to fully understand climate change impact on crop yields. Such experiments would require expensive infrastructure with creative new designs—studies that have yet to be conducted, in part due to lack of adequate funding. A third factor is the interactive effect of temperature and plant nitrogen (protein) content on respiration, which is poorly understood. In the absence of such studies, it is sobering to note that one long-term field study in which the effect of temperature on rice yield could be isolated from other factors documented a 15% decrease in yield for every 1 °C increase in mean temperature [5]. The magnitude of this decrease is considerably larger than predictions of yield decreases from higher temperature obtained from crop simulation models. Like the results of Lobell and Field [2], we see a discrepancy between estimates of the effects of warmer temperatures on crop yields based on the relationship between crop yields and temperature under field conditions versus those derived from modeling and experiments conducted under controlled conditions. As we make the historic transition from an extended period of surplus food production to one in which demand for staple crop commodities exceeds supply, there is a vital need to better understand the impact of warming temperatures on current and future crop yields. References [1] Council for Agricultural Science and Technology 2006 Convergence of agriculture and energy: Implications for Research and Policy CAST Commentary QTA 2006-3 (Ames, Iowa: CAST) (www.cast-science.org) [2] Lobell D B and Field C B 2007 Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming Environ. Res. Lett. 2 014002 [3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group 2 Climate Change 2001 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability IPCC Working Group 2, Third Assessment (New York: Cambridge University Press) [4] Tubiello F N et al 2006 Crop response to elevated CO2 and world food supply: A comment on 'Food for Thought...' by Long et al, Science 312:1918-1921, 2006 Eur. J. Agron. 26 215 23 [5] Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy J E, Laza R, Visperas R M, Zhong X, Centeno G S, Khush G and Cassman K G 2004 Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 101 9971 5 Notes Note1 USA (40% of global maize, 56% of global maize exports), Brazil (33% of global sugar, 36% of global sugar exports), Indonesia and Malaysia (81% of global palm oil, 88% of global palm oil exports)—2005 data from FAOSTAT: faostat.fao.org/site/395/default.aspx. Note2 For example, the use of a 'global season' for calculating temperatures is problematic. In the case of soybean, a substantial portion of global soybean production occurs in the southern hemisphere, mostly in Brazil and Argentina, yet the global season for temperature was July August—a time when soybean is not grown in these countries. Likewise the global season for rice was January October, a period in which two consecutive rice crops are grown in tropical and subtropical irrigated systems of Asia—systems that account for a large portion of global rice production. Photo of Kenneth G Cassman Dr Cassman is Director of the Nebraska Center for Energy Science Research at the University of Nebraska and the Heuermann Professor of Agronomy. His work focuses on ensuring local and global food security while improving environmental quality in many of the world's most productive cropping systems. Previous positions include: research agronomist in Brazil, Egypt and the Philippines; faculty member at the University of California-Davis; division/department head at the International Rice Research Institute and the University of Nebraska. He received a PhD from the University of Hawaii's College of Tropical Agriculture (1979) and a BS in Biology from the University of California, San Diego (1975).