The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the wildland urban interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-12-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the wildland urban interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of the 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire's weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting >2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances >10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). Overall, 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

The spatial domain of wildfire risk and response in the Wildland Urban Interface in Sydney, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, O. F.; Bradstock, R. A.

2013-09-01

In order to quantify the risks from fire at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), it is important to understand where fires occur and their likelihood of spreading to the WUI. For each of 999 fires in the Sydney region we calculated the distance between the ignition and the WUI, the fire weather and wind direction and whether it spread to the WUI. The likelihood of burning the WUI was analysed using binomial regression. Weather and distance interacted such that under mild weather conditions, the model predicted only a 5% chance that a fire starting more than 2.5 km from the interface would reach it, whereas when the conditions are extreme the predicted chance remained above 30% even at distances further than 10 km. Fires were more likely to spread to the WUI if the wind was from the west and in the western side of the region. We examined whether the management responses to wildfires are commensurate with risk by comparing the distribution of distance to the WUI of wildfires with roads and prescribed fires. Prescribed fires and roads were concentrated nearer to the WUI than wildfires as a whole, but further away than wildfires that burnt the WUI under extreme weather conditions (high risk fires). 79% of these high risk fires started within 2 km of the WUI, so there is some argument for concentrating more management effort near the WUI. By substituting climate change scenario weather into the statistical model, we predicted a small increase in the risk of fires spreading to the WUI, but the increase will be greater under extreme weather. This approach has a variety of uses, including mapping fire risk and improving the ability to match fire management responses to the threat from each fire. They also provide a baseline from which a cost-benefit analysis of complementary fire management strategies can be conducted.

Assessing the risk of ignition in the Russian far east within a modeling framework of fire threat.

PubMed

Loboda, Tatiana V; Csiszar, Ivan A

2007-04-01

The forests of high biological importance in the Russian Far East (RFE) have been experiencing increasing pressure from growing demands for natural resources under the changing economy of post-Soviet Russia. This pressure is further amplified by the rising threat of large and catastrophic fire occurrence, which threatens both the resources and the economic potential of the region. In this paper we introduce a conceptual Fire Threat Model (FTM) and use it to provide quantitative assessment of the risk of ignition in the Russian Far East. The remotely sensed data driven FTM is aimed at evaluating potential wildland fire occurrence and its impact and recovery potential for a given resource. This model is intended for use by resource managers to assist in assessing current levels of fire threat to a given resource, projecting the changes in fire threat under changing climate and land use, and evaluating the efficiency of various management approaches aimed at minimizing the fire impact. Risk of ignition (one of the major uncertainties within fire threat modeling) was analyzed using the MODIS active fire product. The risk of ignition in the RFE is shown to be highly variable in spatial and temporal domains. However, the number of ignition points is not directly proportional to the amount of fire occurrence in the area. Fire ignitions in the RFE are strongly linked to anthropogenic activity (transportation routes, settlements, and land use). An increase in the number of fire ignitions during summer months could be attributed to (1) disruption of the summer monsoons and subsequent changes in fire weather and (2) an increase in natural sources of fire ignitions.

Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

Treesearch

M. A. Cochrane; C. J. Moran; M. C. Wimberly; A. D. Baer; M. A. Finney; K. L. Beckendorf; J. Eidenshink; Z. Zhu

2012-01-01

Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of...

Depopulation of rural landscapes exacerbates fire activity in the western Amazon.

PubMed

Uriarte, María; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miquel; DeFries, Ruth S; Fernandes, Katia; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Baethgen, Walter E; Padoch, Christine

2012-12-26

Destructive fires in Amazonia have occurred in the past decade, leading to forest degradation, carbon emissions, impaired air quality, and property damage. Here, we couple climate, geospatial, and province-level census data, with farmer surveys to examine the climatic, demographic, and land use factors associated with fire frequency in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010. Although our results corroborate previous findings elsewhere that drought and proximity to roads increase fire frequency, the province-scale analysis further identifies decreases in rural populations as an additional factor. Farmer survey data suggest that increased burn scar frequency and size reflect increased flammability of emptying rural landscapes and reduced capacity to control fire. With rural populations projected to decline, more frequent drought, and expansion of road infrastructure, fire risk is likely to increase in western Amazonia. Damage from fire can be reduced through warning systems that target high-risk locations, coordinated fire fighting efforts, and initiatives that provide options for people to remain in rural landscapes.

Depopulation of rural landscapes exacerbates fire activity in the western Amazon

PubMed Central

Uriarte, María; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miquel; DeFries, Ruth S.; Fernandes, Katia; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor; Baethgen, Walter E.; Padoch, Christine

2012-01-01

Destructive fires in Amazonia have occurred in the past decade, leading to forest degradation, carbon emissions, impaired air quality, and property damage. Here, we couple climate, geospatial, and province-level census data, with farmer surveys to examine the climatic, demographic, and land use factors associated with fire frequency in the Peruvian Amazon from 2000 to 2010. Although our results corroborate previous findings elsewhere that drought and proximity to roads increase fire frequency, the province-scale analysis further identifies decreases in rural populations as an additional factor. Farmer survey data suggest that increased burn scar frequency and size reflect increased flammability of emptying rural landscapes and reduced capacity to control fire. With rural populations projected to decline, more frequent drought, and expansion of road infrastructure, fire risk is likely to increase in western Amazonia. Damage from fire can be reduced through warning systems that target high-risk locations, coordinated fire fighting efforts, and initiatives that provide options for people to remain in rural landscapes. PMID:23236144

Fire safety knowledge and practices among residents of an assisted living facility.

PubMed

Jaslow, David; Ufberg, Jacob; Yoon, Russell; McQueen, Clay; Zecher, Derek; Jakubowski, Greg

2005-01-01

Assisted living facilities (ALFs) pose unique fire risks to the elderly that may be linked to specific fire safety (FS) practices. To evaluate self-reported FS practices among ALF residents. All residents of a small ALF were surveyed regarding actual and hypothetical FS behaviors, self-perceived fire risk, and FS preparedness. Fifty-eight ALF residents completed the survey. Thirty-three (58%) individuals reported one or more disabilities. Seven (12%) residents ignored the fire alarm and 21 (35%) could not hear it clearly. Sixteen (28%) residents would attempt to locate the source of a fire rather than escape from the building. Only 24 (42%) residents were familiar with the building fire plan. Twenty-three (40%) people surveyed believed that they were not at risk of fire in the study facility. Residents of an ALF may be at increased fire injury risk due to their FS practices and disabilities.

Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

2015-01-01

In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

Heightened fire risk in Indonesia in response to increasing temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

2016-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

Presettlement fire regime and vegetation mapping in Southeastern Coastal Plain forest ecosystems

Treesearch

Andrew D. Bailey; Robert Mickler; Cecil Frost

2007-01-01

Fire-adapted forest ecosystems make up 95 percent of the historic Coastal Plain vegetation types in the Southeastern United States. Fire suppression over the last century has altered the species composition of these ecosystems, increased fuel loads, and increased wildfire risk. Prescribed fire is one management tool used to reduce fuel loading and restore fire-adapted...

A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm

Treesearch

Christopher J. Dunn; Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin

2017-01-01

The impacts of wildfires have increased in recent decades because of historical forest and fire management, a rapidly changing climate, and an increasingly populated wildland urban interface. This increasingly complex fire environment highlights the importance of developing robust tools to support risk-informed decision making. While tools have been developed to aid...

Modern Approaches to Wildfire Mitigation by Air and by Ground: An Interdisciplinary Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffin, J.; Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.; Wuerzer, T.; Lawless, B.; McCoy, J.

2013-12-01

In 2012, 1.7 million acres of land burned in Idaho--more than any other state. Boise, Idaho, is situated at the base of the Boise Foothills; this physiographic setting places the area at risk of not only fires along on the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), but also at risk for post-fire floods and debris flows in the lower lying neighborhoods adjacent to steep hillslopes. In 1959 and 1994, fires and post-fire debris flows devastated areas of the foothills, and inundated residences with water and mud. Anthropogenically-induced climate change is projected to increased summer temperatures and decrease summer precipitation; the associated increase in fire risk necessitates enhanced wildfire planning in Boise's WUI. Temporal uncertainty with varying weather and vegetation conditions poses problems in defining wildfire risk and requires new methods to address the WUI challenges. Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) could identify and characterize fire hazards to be mapped and used as a management tool. This technology would allow for repeat flights to update risk analysis as the hazards change both annually and multiple times within each fire season. With aerial photography obtained from flights, Structure from Motion software can be used to compile the images and render a 3D model to help quantify biomass. Aerial photographs would also allow for the ability to track seasonal changes in fire risk from vegetation height and inferred moisture content. Boise State University's departments of Geoscience, Community and Regional Planning, and the Public Policy Center are examining the risks and impacts of fire along the Boise WUI. The research integrates the perspectives of the geosciences and social sciences by combining physically-based fire hazards, effective fire management policies, and urban/regional planning in the WUI to provide better spatially-appropriate data and resources to the community and a common reference to assist in unifying the local efforts for fire mitigation. This presentation will introduce findings from a homeowner's survey of potentially at-risk residents regarding their perceptions of risk and uncertainty and their receptiveness to local mitigation, adaptation policies, and alternatives.

Temporal changes to fire risk in dissimilar WUI communities

Treesearch

N. C. Leyshon; C. A. Dicus; D. B. Sapsis

2015-01-01

Despite increasing proportions of governmental budgets allocated to fire suppression resources, wildfires annually destroy great numbers of homes and critical infrastructure in the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Since 2002, the largest fires in the histories of California, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Oregon, and Texas have occurred in spite of increased fire...

More stapler firings increase the risk of perioperative morbidity after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy.

PubMed

Major, Piotr; Wysocki, Michał; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Pisarska, Magdalena; Małczak, Piotr; Wierdak, Mateusz; Dembiński, Marcin; Migaczewski, Marcin; Rubinkiewicz, Mateusz; Budzyński, Andrzej

2018-03-01

Staple-line bleeding and leakage are the most common serious complications of laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. The relationship between multiple stapler firings and higher risk of postoperative complications is well defined in colorectal surgery but has not been addressed in bariatric procedures so far. Identification of new factors such as "the numbers of stapler firings used during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG)" as a predictor for complications can lead to optimization of the patient care at bariatric centers. To determine the association between perioperative morbidity and the number of stapler firings during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. This observational study was based on retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in patients operated on for morbid obesity in a teaching hospital/tertiary referral center for general surgery. The patients who underwent LSG were analyzed in terms of the number of stapler firings used as a new potential risk predictor for postoperative complications after surgery, adjusting for other patient- and treatment-related factors. The study included 333 patients (209 women, 124 men, mean age: 40 ±11). During the first 30 days after surgery, complications were observed in 18 (5.41%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that prolonging operative time increased morbidity (every minute, OR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00-1.02) and the complication rate increased with the number of stapler firings (every firing, OR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.09-3.33; p = 0.023). Additional stapler firings above the usual number and a prolonged operation should alert a surgeon and the whole team about increased risk of postoperative complications.

Perceived risk of home fire and escape plans in rural households.

PubMed

Yang, Jingzhen; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Zwerling, Craig; Lundell, John

2006-01-01

Homes in rural areas have a higher fire death rate. Although successful exit from a home fire could greatly reduce fire-related deaths and injuries, little is known about factors associated with behaviors of developing and practicing an escape plan. Between July 2003 and June 2004, a baseline survey was administered, in person, to 691 rural households. Information collected included a history of previous home fire, perceived risk of home fire, existing smoke alarms and their working status, and home fire safety practices, as well as home and occupant characteristics. The association of residents' perceived risk of home fire and fire escape plans was assessed. Forty-two percent of rural households reported having a fire escape plan. Of the households with a plan, less than two thirds (56.9%) discussed or practiced the plan. Households with children were more likely to develop and practice a fire escape plan. Households with an elderly or disabled person were less likely to develop or practice the plan. Compared to respondents who perceived low or very low risk of home fire, those who perceived a high or very high risk had 3.5 times greater odds of having a fire escape plan and 5.5 times greater odds of discussion or practicing their plan. Increasing awareness of the potential risk of home fires may help occupants develop and practice home fire escape plans. In order to reduce fire deaths and injuries, different strategies need to be developed for those households in which the occupants lack the ability to escape.

Applications of Living Fire PRA models to Fire Protection Significance Determination Process in Taiwan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De-Cheng, Chen; Chung-Kung, Lo; Tsu-Jen, Lin

2004-07-01

The living fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models for all three operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Taiwan had been established in December 2000. In that study, a scenario-based PRA approach was adopted to systematically evaluate the fire and smoke hazards and associated risks. Using these fire PRA models developed, a risk-informed application project had also been completed in December 2002 for the evaluation of cable-tray fire-barrier wrapping exemption. This paper presents a new application of the fire PRA models to fire protection issues using the fire protection significance determination process (FP SDP). The fire protection issues studied may involvemore » the selection of appropriate compensatory measures during the period when an automatic fire detection or suppression system in a safety-related fire zone becomes inoperable. The compensatory measure can either be a 24-hour fire watch or an hourly fire patrol. The living fire PRA models were used to estimate the increase in risk associated with the fire protection issue in terms of changes in core damage frequency (CDF) and large early release frequency (LERF). In compliance with SDP at-power and the acceptance guidelines specified in RG 1.174, the fire protection issues in question can be grouped into four categories; red, yellow, white and green, in accordance with the guidelines developed for FD SDP. A 24-hour fire watch is suggested only required for the yellow condition, while an hourly fire patrol may be adopted for the white condition. More limiting requirement is suggested for the red condition, but no special consideration is needed for the green condition. For the calculation of risk measures, risk impacts from any additional fire scenarios that may have been introduced, as well as more severe initiating events and fire damages that may accompany the fire protection issue should be considered carefully. Examples are presented in this paper to illustrate the evaluation process. (authors)« less

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

PubMed

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for ‘extensive cattle ranching’, ‘agro-silvopastoral use’ and ‘intensive cattle ranching and agriculture’. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future. PMID:27632528

Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

Treesearch

Brian R Sturtevant; Brian R Miranda; Douglas J Shinneman; Eric J Gustafson; Peter T. Wolter

2012-01-01

Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to...

Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires.

PubMed

Metallinou, Maria-Monika; Log, Torgrim

2017-07-20

General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km² of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires.

Health Impacts of Climate Change-Induced Subzero Temperature Fires

PubMed Central

Metallinou, Maria-Monika; Log, Torgrim

2017-01-01

General fire risk and the special risk related to cold climate cellulosic drying processes are outlined. Four recent subzero temperatures fires are studied with respect to health impacts: a wooden village fire, a single wood structure fire, a wildland urban interface (WUI) fire and a huge wildland fire. The health impacts range from stress related to loss of jobs, psychological effects of lost possessions, exposure to smoke and heat as well as immediate, or delayed, loss of lives. These four fires resulted in 32 fatalities, 385 persons hospitalized for shorter or longer periods, 104 structures lost and 1015 km2 of wildland burned north of, and just south of, the Arctic Circle. It is shown that the combination of subzero temperature dry weather, strong winds, changing agricultural activities and declining snowpack may lead to previously anticipated threats to people and the environment. There are reasons to believe that these fires are a result of the ongoing climate changes. Risk impacts are discussed. Rural districts and/or vulnerable populations seem to be most affected. Training methods to identify and better monitor critical fire risk parameters are suggested to mitigate the health impacts of a possibly increasing number of such fires. PMID:28726752

Fire Safety for Retired Adults: Participant's Coursebook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker (Bonnie) and Associates, Inc., Crofton, MD.

The risk of dying from fire increases substantially among older adults. This document contains a collection of fire safety information for elderly people. Information includes procedures to follow in case of fire and early warning technologies such as smoke alarms. The booklet describes potential sources of fires (smoking, home heating, kitchens,…

More stapler firings increase the risk of perioperative morbidity after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy

PubMed Central

Major, Piotr; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Pisarska, Magdalena; Małczak, Piotr; Wierdak, Mateusz; Dembiński, Marcin; Migaczewski, Marcin; Rubinkiewicz, Mateusz; Budzyński, Andrzej

2017-01-01

Introduction Staple-line bleeding and leakage are the most common serious complications of laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. The relationship between multiple stapler firings and higher risk of postoperative complications is well defined in colorectal surgery but has not been addressed in bariatric procedures so far. Identification of new factors such as “the numbers of stapler firings used during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG)” as a predictor for complications can lead to optimization of the patient care at bariatric centers. Aim To determine the association between perioperative morbidity and the number of stapler firings during laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. Material and methods This observational study was based on retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in patients operated on for morbid obesity in a teaching hospital/tertiary referral center for general surgery. The patients who underwent LSG were analyzed in terms of the number of stapler firings used as a new potential risk predictor for postoperative complications after surgery, adjusting for other patient- and treatment-related factors. The study included 333 patients (209 women, 124 men, mean age: 40 ±11). Results During the first 30 days after surgery, complications were observed in 18 (5.41%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that prolonging operative time increased morbidity (every minute, OR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00–1.02) and the complication rate increased with the number of stapler firings (every firing, OR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.09–3.33; p = 0.023). Conclusions Additional stapler firings above the usual number and a prolonged operation should alert a surgeon and the whole team about increased risk of postoperative complications. PMID:29643964

Trends in fire risk and burned area in Brazil in the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, P.; Bastos, A.; DaCamara, C.; Libonati, R.

2016-12-01

Fire has a significant contribution to the global greenhouse gas emissions and vast ecological and climatic impacts. Worldwide, Brazil is one of the areas most affected by fire, which highly influences the state of the vegetation cover, the ecological diversity of the region and has significant consequences to the global CO2 balance [1]. Hence, with the increasing evidence of human induced climate change, it becomes essential to understand the present and future trends of fire risk in Brazil. Although a large number of fires in Brazil are anthropogenic, it has been shown that the burned area is mainly controlled by meteorological conditions [2], therefore being partially determined by fire risk. In this study we use a fire danger index specifically tailored for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the MFDI developed by INPE, to assess the patterns and trends of fire risk in Brazil. The index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We test the sensitivity of the index to different climate reanalyses and evaluate the trends in fire risk in Brazil during the past four decades for different biomes. We further assess the link between the calculated fire risk and observed fire occurrence and burned area. Finally, we compare the results with fire risk simulated by a regional climate model (RCA4 forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX) in order to evaluate its suitability for future projections of fire risk and burned area. [1] Bowman, D. M. et al. Fire in the earth system. Science, v. 324, p. 481-484, 24 apr. 2009. [2] Libonati, R. et al. An Algorithm for Burned Area Detection in the Brazilian Cerrado Using 4 μm MODIS Imagery. Remote Sensing, v. 7, p. 15782-15803, 2015.

Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

Treesearch

Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

2010-01-01

Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

Does crash risk increase when emergency vehicles are driving with lights and sirens?

PubMed

Missikpode, Celestin; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Young, Tracy; Hamann, Cara

2018-04-01

Emergency vehicles, such as police, ambulances, and fire vehicles, need to arrive at the scene of emergencies as quickly as possible, and thus they often travel in emergency mode - using their lights and sirens and often bypassing traffic signals. We examined whether travelling in emergency mode increased crash risk among police, ambulance and fire vehicles. We conducted a quasi-induced exposure analysis using data from the Iowa Crash Database for the period of 2005 through 2013. The data are maintained by the Iowa Department of Transportation (IADOT), Office of Driver Services (ODS) and includes all investigating police officer's reports of motor vehicle crashes. The quasi-induced exposure method is an approach to calculate crash risk in the absence of exposure data using vehicles without a contributing cause (did not contribute to the crash) as a proxy for the baseline driving population. From 2005 - 2013, police vehicles were involved in 2406 crashes and ambulances and fire vehicles were involved in 528 crashes. Police vehicles were 1.8 times more likely to crash while driving in emergency mode than usual mode; this was a statistically significant increase. Ambulance and fire vehicles were not more likely to crash in emergency mode compared with usual mode. For police, other factors that contributed to crash risk included gender, age, icy/snowy roads, unpaved roads, and intersections. For ambulances and fire vehicles, other factors that contributed to crash risk included gender, age, weekends, icy/snowy roads and urban locations. Crash risk increased when police vehicles drove with lights and sirens but did not increase for ambulance and fire vehicles. Further research is necessary to develop and evaluate strategies to mitigate crash risk among police vehicles. Cultural approaches which prioritize transportation safety in conjunction with reaching the scene as quickly as possible may be warranted. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exposure to an Indoor Cooking Fire and Risk of Trachoma in Children of Kongwa, Tanzania

PubMed Central

Zambrano, Andrea I.; Muñoz, Beatriz E.; Mkocha, Harran; West, Sheila K.

2015-01-01

Background Elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020 can only be achieved if affected areas have effective control programs in place before the target date. Identifying risk factors for active disease that are amenable to intervention is important to successfully design such programs. Previous studies have linked sleeping by a cooking fire to trachoma in children, but not fully explored the mechanism and risks. We propose to determine the risk for active trachoma in children with exposure to cooking fires by severity of trachoma, adjusting for other known risk factors. Methods Complete census of 52 communities in Kongwa, Tanzania, was conducted to collect basic household characteristics and demographic information on each family member. Information on exposure to indoor cooking fires while the mother was cooking and while sleeping for each child was collected. 6656 randomly selected children ages 1-9yrs were invited to a survey where both eyelids were graded for follicular (TF) and intense trachoma (TI) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Ocular swab were taken to assess the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis. Findings 5240 (79%) of the invited children participated in the study. Overall prevalence for trachoma was 6·1%. Odds for trachoma and increased severity were higher in children sleeping without ventilation and a cooking fire in their room (TF OR = 1·81, 1·00–3·27 and TI OR 4·06, 1·96–8·42). Children with TF or TI who were exposed were more likely to have infection than children with TF or TI who were not exposed. There was no increased risk with exposure to a cooking fire while the mother was cooking. Conclusions In addition to known risk factors for trachoma, sleeping by an indoor cooking fire in a room without ventilation was associated with active trachoma and appears to substantially increase the risk of intense inflammation. PMID:26046359

Exposure to an Indoor Cooking Fire and Risk of Trachoma in Children of Kongwa, Tanzania.

PubMed

Zambrano, Andrea I; Muñoz, Beatriz E; Mkocha, Harran; West, Sheila K

2015-01-01

Elimination of blinding trachoma by 2020 can only be achieved if affected areas have effective control programs in place before the target date. Identifying risk factors for active disease that are amenable to intervention is important to successfully design such programs. Previous studies have linked sleeping by a cooking fire to trachoma in children, but not fully explored the mechanism and risks. We propose to determine the risk for active trachoma in children with exposure to cooking fires by severity of trachoma, adjusting for other known risk factors. Complete census of 52 communities in Kongwa, Tanzania, was conducted to collect basic household characteristics and demographic information on each family member. Information on exposure to indoor cooking fires while the mother was cooking and while sleeping for each child was collected. 6656 randomly selected children ages 1-9 yrs were invited to a survey where both eyelids were graded for follicular (TF) and intense trachoma (TI) using the WHO simplified grading scheme. Ocular swab were taken to assess the presence of Chlamydia trachomatis. 5240 (79%) of the invited children participated in the study. Overall prevalence for trachoma was 6·1%. Odds for trachoma and increased severity were higher in children sleeping without ventilation and a cooking fire in their room (TF OR = 1·81, 1·00-3·27 and TI OR 4·06, 1·96-8·42). Children with TF or TI who were exposed were more likely to have infection than children with TF or TI who were not exposed. There was no increased risk with exposure to a cooking fire while the mother was cooking. In addition to known risk factors for trachoma, sleeping by an indoor cooking fire in a room without ventilation was associated with active trachoma and appears to substantially increase the risk of intense inflammation.

Tree mortality following a drought-year lightning ignition in the Ouachita Mountains, Arkansas: 2 years postburn

Treesearch

Virginia L. McDaniel; James M. Guldin; Nancy E. Koerth; Jason E. Milks; Rebecca J. Finzer; Ben F. Rowland

2016-01-01

Increasingly, fire managers are using natural ignitions in conjunction with prescribed burns to restore and maintain fire-adapted ecosystems. Increased fuel loading from fire suppression and increasing drought indices associated with climate change, however, may cause natural ignitions to burn with greater intensity and severity. Managers must weigh risk factors versus...

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression.

PubMed

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-04-08

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale.

Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression

PubMed Central

Song, Chao; Kwan, Mei-Po; Zhu, Jiping

2017-01-01

An increasing number of fires are occurring with the rapid development of cities, resulting in increased risk for human beings and the environment. This study compares geographically weighted regression-based models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), which integrates spatial and temporal effects and global linear regression models (LM) for modeling fire risk at the city scale. The results show that the road density and the spatial distribution of enterprises have the strongest influences on fire risk, which implies that we should focus on areas where roads and enterprises are densely clustered. In addition, locations with a large number of enterprises have fewer fire ignition records, probably because of strict management and prevention measures. A changing number of significant variables across space indicate that heterogeneity mainly exists in the northern and eastern rural and suburban areas of Hefei city, where human-related facilities or road construction are only clustered in the city sub-centers. GTWR can capture small changes in the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the variables while GWR and LM cannot. An approach that integrates space and time enables us to better understand the dynamic changes in fire risk. Thus governments can use the results to manage fire safety at the city scale. PMID:28397745

Forests at risk: integrating risk science into fuel management strategies.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2008-01-01

The threat from wildland fire continues to grow across many regions of the Western United States. Drought, urbanization, and a buildup of fuels over the last century have contributed to increasing wildfire risk to property and highly valued natural resources. Fuel treatments, including thinning overly dense forests to reduce fuel and lower fire risk, have become a...

Increased incidence of red imported fire ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) presence in loggerhead sea turtle (Testudines: Cheloniidae) nests and observations of hatchling mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parris, L.B.; Lamont, M.M.; Carthy, R.R.

2002-01-01

Hatching sea turtles may be at risk to fire ant predation during egg incubation, and especially at risk once pipped from the egg, prior to hatchling emergence from the nest. In addition to direct mortality, fire ants have the potential to inflict debilitating injuries that may directly affect survival of the young. The increased incidence of red imported fire ant induced mortality and envenomization of loggerhead sea turtle hatchlings on Cape San Blas suggests this invasive ant species may pose a serious threat to the future of this genetically distinct population.

Climate Change, Wildland Fires and Public Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cascio, W. E.

2016-12-01

Climate change is contributing to an increase in the severity of wildland fires. The annual acreage burned in the U.S. has risen steadily since 1985, and the fire season has lengthened. Wildland fires impair air quality by producing massive quantities of particulate air pollutants and ozone precursors. Together particles and ozone exposures increase the risk of premature death and acute and chronic cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity among vulnerable individuals. Future wildfires are predicted to be larger, more severe and more frequent in some regions of the U.S and will contribute to an even greater proportion of the ambient air pollution, the disease burden and healthcare costs.While the projected magnitude of the public health impact of climate change-related wildfire events is uncertain, it is clear that the proportion of the U.S. population vulnerable to the adverse health effects of wildland fire and its smoke is increasing. An aging population with chronic respiratory diseases and increasing obesity and diabetes that heralds more cardiovascular disease will increase the vulnerability of the population to the adverse effects of wildfire smoke and associated stressors. Additionally, physiological changes attendant to aging decrease the capacity of aged-adults to tolerate wildfire smoke, heat, humidity, evacuation and recovery. Expansion of our cities into the wildland-urban interface is also placing a greater proportion of the population in closer proximity to wildland fire emissions with its associated health risks. The public health community has an opportunity to contribute to the broader national effort to mitigate climate change and wildland fire risk by working closely with the healthcare community to facilitate adaptive responses to climate change. Adaptation will increase the resilience of individuals and their communities and is anticipated to help mitigate the adverse health effects of wildland fire. This abstract does not reflect USEPA policy.

Opportunities for making wood products from small diameter trees in Colorado

Treesearch

Dennis L. Lynch; Kurt H. Mackes

2002-01-01

Colorado's forests are at risk to forest health problems and catastrophic fire. Forest areas at high risk to catastrophic fire, commonly referred to as Red Zones, contain 2.4 million acres in the Colorado Front Range and 6.3 million acres Statewide. The increasing frequency, size, and intensity of recent forest fires have prompted large appropriations of Federal...

Humans, Fires, and Forests - Social science applied to fire management

Treesearch

Hanna J. Cortner; Donald R. Field; Pam Jakes; James D. Buthman

2003-01-01

The 2000 and 2002 fire seasons resulted in increased political scrutiny of the nation's wildland fire threats, and given the fact that millions of acres of lands are still at high risk for future catastrophic fire events, the issues highlighted by the recent fire seasons are not likely to go away any time soon. Recognizing the magnitude of the problem, the...

Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

Treesearch

Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

2016-01-01

Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

Risk management: Core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Donald G. MacGregor; Dave Calkin

2016-01-01

The Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture faces a future of increasing complexity and risk, pressing financial issues, and the inescapable possibility of loss of human life. These issues are perhaps most acute for wildland fire management, the highest risk activity in which the Forest Service engages. Risk management (RM) has long been put forth as an...

Water contamination risks associated with a combination of planned and unplanned fire in south eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, G. J.; Nyman, P.; Langhans, C.; Noske, P. J.; Lane, P. N. J.

2014-12-01

Planned burning reduces fuel loads in forests, potentially reducing the severity of subsequent wildfires. However planned burning also increases the risk of a significant water quality impact by maintaining a proportion of the catchment in a burnt condition conducive to generating high magnitude erosion events (eg. debris flows). Differences in the frequency and magnitude of planned and unplanned fire, combined with poorly understood relationships between fire severity and hydrologic impacts, means that predictions of the net water contamination risks associated with any particular fire regime are difficult to predict. This presentation synthesises results from 10 years of point, plot and catchment-scale post-fire hydrology and erosion studies in SE Australia to estimate the likely benifits and risks of planned burning scenarios from a drinking water supply perspective

Tree mortality from fire and bark beetles following early and late season prescribed fires in a Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forest

Treesearch

Dylan W. Schwilk; Eric E. Knapp; Scott M. Ferrenberg; Jon E. Keeley; Anthony. Caprio

2006-01-01

Over the last century, fire exclusion in the forests of the Sierra Nevada has allowed surface fuels to accumulate and has led to increased tree density. Stand composition has also been altered as shade tolerant tree species crowd out shade intolerant species. To restore forest structure and reduce the risk of large, intense fires, managers have increasingly used...

Spatial patterns and controls on historical fire regimes and forest structure in the Klamath Mountains

Treesearch

Alan H. Taylor; Carl N. Skinner

2003-01-01

Fire exclusion in mixed conifer forests has increased the risk of fire due to decades of fuel accumulation. Restoration of fire into altered forests is a challenge because of a poor understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of fire regimes. In this study the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire regimes and forest age structure are reconstructed in a...

Fatigue risk management by volunteer fire-fighters: Use of informal strategies to augment formal policy.

PubMed

Dawson, Drew; Mayger, Katherine; Thomas, Matthew J W; Thompson, Kirrilly

2015-11-01

An increasing number and intensity of catastrophic fire events in Australia has led to increasing demands on a mainly volunteer fire-fighting workforce. Despite the increasing likelihood of fatigue in the emergency services environment, there is not yet a systematic, unified approach to fatigue management in fire agencies across Australia. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to identify informal strategies used in volunteer fire-fighting and examine how these strategies are transmitted across the workforce. Thirty experienced Australian volunteer fire-fighters were interviewed in August 2010. The study identified informal fatigue-management behaviours at the individual, team and brigade level that have evolved in fire-fighting environments and are regularly implemented. However, their purpose was not explicitly recognized as such. This apparent paradox - that fatigue proofing behaviours exist but that they are not openly understood as such - may well resolve a potential conflict between a culture of indefatigability in the emergency services sector and the frequent need to operate safely while fatigued. However, formal controls require fire-fighters and their organisations to acknowledge and accept their vulnerability. This suggests two important areas in which to improve formal fatigue risk management in the emergency services sector: (1) identifying and formalising tacit or informal fatigue coping strategies as legitimate elements of the fatigue risk management system; and (2) developing culturally appropriate techniques for systematically communicating fatigue levels to self and others. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fire in the Amazon: impact of experimental fuel addition on responses of ants and their interactions with myrmecochorous seeds.

PubMed

Paolucci, Lucas N; Maia, Maria L B; Solar, Ricardo R C; Campos, Ricardo I; Schoereder, José H; Andersen, Alan N

2016-10-01

The widespread clearing of tropical forests causes lower tree cover, drier microclimate, and higher and drier fuel loads of forest edges, increasing the risk of fire occurrence and its intensity. We used a manipulative field experiment to investigate the influence of fire and fuel loads on ant communities and their interactions with myrmecochorous seeds in the southern Amazon, a region currently undergoing extreme land-use intensification. Experimental fires and fuel addition were applied to 40 × 40-m plots in six replicated blocks, and ants were sampled between 15 and 30 days after fires in four strata: subterranean, litter, epigaeic, and arboreal. Fire had extensive negative effects on ant communities. Highly specialized cryptobiotic and predator species of the litter layer and epigaeic specialist predators were among the most sensitive, but we did not find evidence of overall biotic homogenization following fire. Fire reduced rates of location and transport of myrmecochorous seeds, and therefore the effectiveness of a key ecosystem service provided by ants, which we attribute to lower ant abundance and increased thermal stress. Experimental fuel addition had only minor effects on attributes of fire severity, and limited effects on ant responses to fire. Our findings indicate that enhanced fuel loads will not decrease ant diversity and ecosystem services through increased fire severity, at least in wetter years. However, higher fuel loads can still have a significant effect on ants from Amazonian rainforests because they increase the risk of fire occurrence, which has a detrimental impact on ant communities and a key ecosystem service they provide.

Western spruce budworm outbreaks did not increase fire risk over the last three centuries: A dendrochronological analysis of inter-disturbance synergism

Treesearch

Aquila Flower; Daniel G. Gavin; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Russell A. Parsons; Gregory M. Cohn

2014-01-01

Insect outbreaks are often assumed to increase the severity or probability of fire occurrence through increased fuel availability, while fires may in turn alter susceptibility of forests to subsequent insect outbreaks through changes in the spatial distribution of suitable host trees. However, little is actually known about the potential synergisms between these...

Contribution of Earth Observation and meteorological datasets for the design and development of a national fire risk assessment system (NFOFRAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katagis, Thomas; Bliziotis, Dimitris; Liantinioti, Chrysa; Gitas, Ioannis Z.; Charalampopoulou, Betty

2016-08-01

During the past decades, forest fires have increased both in frequency and severity thus, increasing the life threats for people and environment and leading countries to spend vast amounts of resources in fighting forest fires. Besides anthropogenic activities, climatic and environmental changes are considered as driving factors affecting fire occurrence and vegetation succession. Especially in the Mediterranean region, the development and existence of effective tools and services is crucial for assisting pre-fire planning and preparedness. The collaborative project NFOFRAS aims at introducing an innovative and effective system for rating forest fire risk, and is based on existing technology and standards that have been developed by countries with a long and a very successful involvement in this field. During the first phase of the project a detailed documentation of the proposed methodology was composed. In addition, Earth Observation (EO) and meteorological datasets were utilized for producing accurate pre-fire measurements over a selected study area in Greece.

Examining the relative effects of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatment on fire behaviour--a simulation study.

PubMed

Penman, T D; Collins, L; Price, O F; Bradstock, R A; Metcalf, S; Chong, D M O

2013-12-15

Large budgets are spent on both suppression and fuel treatments in order to reduce the risk of wildfires. There is little evidence regarding the relative contribution of fire weather, suppression and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfires. Here we undertake a simulation study in the Sydney Basin, Australia, to examine this question using a fire behaviour model (Phoenix Rapidfire). Results of the study indicate that fire behaviour is most strongly influenced by fire weather. Suppression has a greater influence on whether a fire reaches 5 ha in size compared to fuel treatments. In contrast, fuel treatments have a stronger effect on the fire size and maximum distance the fire travels. The study suggests that fire management agencies will receive additional benefits from fuel treatment if they are located in areas which suppression resources can respond rapidly and attempt to contain the fires. No combination of treatments contained all fires, and the proportion of uncontained fires increased under more severe fire weather when the greatest number of properties are lost. Our study highlights the importance of alternative management strategies to reduce the risk of property loss. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk terminology primer: Basic principles and a glossary for the wildland fire management community

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Tom Zimmerman; Dan Mindar; Mary Taber

2016-01-01

Risk management is being increasingly promoted as an appropriate method for addressing wildland fire management challenges. However, a lack of a common understanding of risk concepts and terminology is hindering effective application. In response, this General Technical Report provides a set of clear, consistent, understandable, and usable definitions for terms...

Can private land conservation reduce wildfire risk to homes? A case study in San Diego County, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butsic, Van; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bar-Massada, Avi

2017-01-01

The purchase of private land for conservation purposes is a common way to prevent the exploitation of sensitive ecological areas. However, private land conservation can also provide other benefits, one of these being natural hazard reduction. Here, we investigated the impacts of private land conservation on fire risk to homes in San Diego County, California. We coupled an econometric land use change model with a model that estimates the probability of house loss due to fire in order to compare fire risk at the county and municipality scale under alternative private land purchasing schemes and over a 20 year time horizon. We found that conservation purchases could reduce fire risk on this landscape, and the amount of risk reduction was related to the targeting approach used to choose which parcels were conserved. Conservation land purchases that targeted parcels designated as high fire hazard resulted in lower fire risk to homes than purchases that targeted low costs or high likelihood to subdivide. This result was driven by (1) preventing home placement in fire prone areas and (2) taking land off the market, and hence increasing development densities in other areas. These results raise the possibility that resource conservation and fire hazard reduction may benefit from combining efforts. With adequate planning, future conservation purchases could have synergistic effects beyond just protecting ecologically sensitive areas.

Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Landucci, Gabriele; Molag, Menso; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2009-08-15

The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements model. The results of mathematical simulations of real scale fire engulfment scenarios that may follow accidents involving LPG tankers proved the effectiveness of the thermal protections in preventing the "fired" BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion) scenario. The presence of a thermal coating greatly increases the "time to failure", providing a time lapse that in the European experience may be considered sufficient to allow the start of effective mitigation actions by fire brigades. The results obtained were used to calculate the expected reduction of individual and societal risk due to LPG transportation in real case scenarios. The analysis confirmed that the introduction of passive fire protections turns out in a significant reduction of risk, up to an order of magnitude in the case of individual risk and of about 50% if the expectation value is considered. Thus, the adoption of passive fire protections, not compulsory in European regulations, may be an effective technical measure for risk reduction, and may contribute to achieve the control of "major accidents hazards" cited by the European legislation.

Risk for large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2015-08-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on the number of large forest fires (over 10 ha fires) and burned area in Finland. For this purpose, we utilized a strong relationship between fire occurrence and the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) during 1996-2014. We used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. Our results also reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase in forest-fire danger. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is more important cause of fires.

Predicting fire effects on water quality: a perspective and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Hugh; Sheridan, Gary; Nyman, Petter; Langhans, Christoph; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick

2017-04-01

Forest environments are a globally significant source of drinking water. Fire presents a credible threat to the supply of high quality water in many forested regions. The post-fire risk to water supplies depends on storm event characteristics, vegetation cover and fire-related changes in soil infiltration and erodibility modulated by landscape position. The resulting magnitude of runoff generation, erosion and constituent flux to streams and reservoirs determines the severity of water quality impacts in combination with the physical and chemical composition of the entrained material. Research to date suggests that most post-fire water quality impacts are due to large increases in the supply of particulates (fine-grained sediment and ash) and particle-associated chemical constituents. The largest water quality impacts result from high magnitude erosion events, including debris flow processes, which typically occur in response to short duration, high intensity storm events during the recovery period. Most research to date focuses on impacts on water quality after fire. However, information on potential water quality impacts is required prior to fire events for risk planning. Moreover, changes in climate and forest management (e.g. prescribed burning) that affect fire regimes may alter water quality risks. Therefore, prediction requires spatial-temporal representation of fire and rainfall regimes coupled with information on fire-related changes to soil hydrologic parameters. Recent work has applied such an approach by combining a fire spread model with historic fire weather data in a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify probabilities associated with fire and storm events generating debris flows and fine sediment influx to a reservoir located in Victoria, Australia. Prediction of fire effects on water quality would benefit from further research in several areas. First, more work on regional-scale stochastic modelling of intersecting fire and storm events with landscape zones of erosion vulnerability is required to support quantitative evaluation of water quality risk and the effect of future changes in climate and land management. Second, we underscore previous calls for characterisation of landscape-scale domains to support regionalisation of parameter sets derived from empirical studies. Recent examples include work identifying aridity as a control of hydro-geomorphic response to fire and the use of spectral-based indices to predict spatial heterogeneity in ash loadings. Third, information on post-fire erosion from colluvial or alluvial stores is needed to determine their significance as both sediment-contaminant sinks and sources. Such sediment stores may require explicit spatial representation in risk models for some environments and sediment tracing can be used to determine their relative importance as secondary sources. Fourth, increased dating of sediment archives could provide regional datasets of fire-related erosion event frequency. Presently, the lack of such data hinders evaluation of risk models linking fire and storm events to erosion and water quality impacts.

The science of firescapes: Achieving fire-resilient communities

Treesearch

Alistair M. S. Smith; Crystal A. Kolden; Travis B. Paveglio; Mark A. Cochrane; David MJS Bowman; Max A. Moritz; Andrew D. Kliskey; Lilian Alessa; Andrew T. Hudak; Chad M. Hoffman; James A. Lutz; Lloyd P. Queen; Scott J. Goetz; Philip E. Higuera; Luigi Boschetti; Mike Flannigan; Kara M. Yedinak; Adam C. Watts; Eva K. Strand; Jan W. van Wagtendonk; John W. Anderson; Brian J. Stocks; John T. Abatzoglou

2016-01-01

Wildland fire management has reached a crossroads. Current perspectives are not capable of answering interdisciplinary adaptation and mitigation challenges posed by increases in wildfire risk to human populations and the need to reintegrate fire as a vital landscape process. Fire science has been, and continues to be, performed in isolated "silos," including...

Fire weather technology for fire agrometeorology operations

Treesearch

Francis Fujioka

2008-01-01

Even as the magnitude of wildfire problems increases globally, United Nations agencies are acting to mitigate the risk of wildfire disasters to members. Fire management organizations worldwide may vary considerably in operational scope, depending on the number and type of resources an organization manages. In any case, good fire weather information is vital. This paper...

Restoring forest structure and process stabilizes forest carbon in wildfire-prone southwestern ponderosa pine forests

Treesearch

Matthew D. Hurteau; Shuang Liang; Katherine L. Martin; Malcolm P. North; George W. Koch; Bruce A. Hungate

2016-01-01

Changing climate and a legacy of fire-exclusion have increased the probability of high-severity wildfire, leading to an increased risk of forest carbon loss in ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern USA. Efforts to reduce high-severity fire risk through forest thinning and prescribed burning require both the removal and emission of carbon from these forests, and...

How wildfire risk is related to urban planning and Fire Weather Index in SE France (1990-2013).

PubMed

Fox, D M; Carrega, P; Ren, Y; Caillouet, P; Bouillon, C; Robert, S

2018-04-15

Wildfires burn >450,000ha of forest every year in Euro-Mediterranean countries. Many fires originate in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) where housing density and weather conditions affect fire occurrence. Housing density is determined by long term land use policies while weather conditions evolve quickly. The first objective was to quantify the impacts of land use policy on WUI characteristics and fire risk in SE France during 1990-2012. The second objective was to quantify how Fire Weather Index (FWI) is related to fire occurrence. WUI was mapped from 1990, 1999, and 2012 building layers and crossed with a NDVI derived vegetation layer. In all, 12 WUI categories were derived: 4 building density classes and 3 vegetation layers. The I87 FWI was based on daily temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and soil water content. Despite a 30% increase in the number of new buildings, WUI area increased by only 5% as new housing filled in open space in existing WUI area. This trend can be linked to national level urban planning legislation and forest fire protection laws. Major driver variables determining housing location were aspect, slope, and distance to city centers. Fire frequency and burned area were nonlinearly related to FWI: 73% of the 99 fires occurred during weeks with FWI values ≥90 even though these accounted for only 44% of all weeks. Burned area was even more sensitive to FWI since 97% of total burned area occurred during weeks with mean FWI values ≥90. All days with burned areas >100ha had FWI values >150. The study demonstrated that WUI legislation can be an efficient tool to limit WUI fire risk. FWI results suggest the predicted increase in extreme summer heat events with global warming could increase burned area as firefighting resources are stretched beyond capacity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

History of Fire Events in the U.S. Commercial Nuclear Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bijan Najafi; Joglar-Biloch, Francisco; Kassawara, Robert P.

2002-07-01

Over the past decade, interest in performance-based fire protection has increased within the nuclear industry. In support of this growing interest, in 1997 the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed a long-range plan to develop/improve data and tools needed to support Risk-Informed/Performance-Based fire protection. This plan calls for continued improvement in collection and use of information obtained from fire events at nuclear plants. The data collection process has the objectives of improving the insights gained from such data and reducing the uncertainty in fire risk and fire modeling methods in order to make them a more reliable basis for performancemore » based fire protection programs. In keeping with these objectives, EPRI continues to collect, review and analyze fire events in support of the nuclear industry. EPRI collects these records in cooperation with the Nuclear Electric Insurance Limited (NEIL), by compiling public fire event reports and by direct solicitation of U.S. nuclear facilities. EPRI fire data collection project is based on the principle that the understanding of history is one of the cornerstones of improving fire protection technology and practice. Therefore, the goal has been to develop and maintain a comprehensive database of fire events with flexibility to support various aspects of fire protection engineering. With more than 1850 fire records over a period of three decades and 2400 reactor years, this is the most comprehensive database of nuclear power industry fire events in existence today. In general, the frequency of fires in the U.S. commercial nuclear industry remains constant. In few cases, e.g., transient fires and fires in BWR offgas/recombiner systems, where either increasing or decreasing trends are observed, these trends tend to slow after 1980. The key issues in improving quality of the data remain to be consistency of the recording and reporting of fire events and difficulties in collection of records. EPRI has made significant progress towards improving the quality of the fire events data through use of multiple collection methods as well as its review and verification. To date EPRI has used this data to develop a generic fire ignition frequency model for U.S. nuclear power industry (Ref. 1, 4 and 5) as well as to support other models in support of EPRI Fire Risk Methods such as a cable fire manual suppression model. EPRI will continue its effort to collect and analyze operating data to support risk informed/performance based fire safety engineering, including collection and analysis of impairment data for fire protection systems and features. This paper provides details on the collection and application of fire events to risk informed/performance based fire protection. The paper also provides valuable insights into improving both collection and use of fire events data. (authors)« less

Effects of prescribed fire on fuels, vegetation, and Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) demographics in Texas juniper-oak woodlands

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Reidy; Frank R., III Thompson; Carl Schwope; Scott Rowin; James M. Mueller

2016-01-01

The Golden-cheeked Warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) is an endangered songbird that breeds in mature juniper-oak woodlands restricted to Central Texas. This habitat is increasingly susceptible to crown fire due to climate change, land use change, and fire suppression. Prescribed fire is a potential tool to reduce the risk of crown fire and may be a...

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

Treesearch

Avi Bar Massada; Volker C. Radeloff; Susan I. Stewart; Todd J. Hawbaker

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather...

Smokey Bear is Dead: A New Era of Wildfires in the Western U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, J. L.; Duffin, J.; Lindquist, E.; Wuerzer, T.; Pellant, M.

2013-12-01

High fuel densities, combined with increasingly severe drought, make the western US highly susceptible to changes in the timing of snowmelt and increases in the length of the fire season. The forests and rangelands of Idaho are especially prone to wildfire; in 2012, over 1.7 million acres burned across Idaho, more acres than in any other state. Climate change is projected to increase summer temperatures and decrease summer precipitation in Idaho, and a drier, warmer, and more variable climate will increase the risk of stand-replacing fires. While infrastructure and alert systems are in place to warn residents about threats from hurricanes, floods and tornados, there is limited protection for communities in the ';fire-plain.' Part of this lack of preparation may stem from the belief that fires can be prevented or stopped; a perception that has been perpetuated by ';Smokey Bear,' and the generally successful interval of fire suppression during the 1960's-1980's. However, in the mid-1980's, severe drought, rising temperatures, and early snowmelt have brought an era of ';mega-fires' to the American West. Periods of recurring high wildfire activity across the western US are not unprecedented in the paleo-record, but the frequency of large fires (> 400 ha) and the annual area burned have increased in the modern. For example, in the past 10 years in Idaho, 17 fires burned over 100,000 acres each: six of those fires occurred in 2012. Likewise, the size and severity of rangeland fires in the Western U.S. has increased by almost an order of magnitude in recent decades; in the early 1980's, range fire extents over 100,000 acres was unheard of, but has become increasingly common in recent years (Pellant, 2013). Boise State University's departments of Geoscience, Community and Regional Planning, and the Public Policy Center are examining the risks and impacts of fire along the Boise WUI. The research integrates the perspectives of the geosciences and social sciences by combining physically-based fire hazards, effective fire management policies, and Planning in the West.

Hazard report. Internal wire breakage in reusable electrosurgical active electrode cables may cause sparking and surgical fires.

PubMed

2009-07-01

Breaks in the internal wires of reusable electrosurgical active electrode cables can increase the risk of injuries and surgical fires. Careful visual and manual inspection during reprocessing and immediately before use, coupled with periodic replacement, can help limit the risk.

National Fire Plan Research and Development 2002 Business Summary

Treesearch

USDA Forest Service

2003-01-01

This report summarizes the progress made by Forest Service NFP R&D in FY2002, the second year of NFP funding. Fire research conducted by Forest Service R&D is working to provide the scientific foundation necessary to increase firefighting safety and effectiveness, enhance restoration of fire-scarred landscapes, reduce fire risk through improved management of...

Understanding homeowner preparation and intended actions when threatened by a wildfire

Treesearch

Sarah M. McCaffrey; Greg Winter

2011-01-01

As wildland fires affect more houses, increasing attention is being paid to how homeowners in affected areas respond to the wildfire threat. Most research on homeowner responses to wildfire has focused on actions homeowners take before a fire to mitigate their fire risk, particularly vegetation management. Less attention has been paid to homeowner response during fires...

Hydrologic Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Associated With the Increased Role of Fire on Western Landscapes, Great Basin, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J.; Pierson, F. B.; Robichaud, P. R.; Spaeth, K. E.; Hardegree, S. P.; Clark, P. E.; Moffet, C. A.; Al-Hamdan, O. Z.; Boll, J.

2010-12-01

Landscape-scale plant community transitions and altered fire regimes across Great Basin, USA, rangelands have increased the likelihood of post-fire flooding and erosion events. These hazards are particularly concerning for western urban centers along the rangeland urban-wildland interface where natural resources, property, and human life are at risk. Extensive conversion of 4-7 million hectares of Great Basin shrub-steppe to cheatgrass-dominated (Bromus tectorum) grasslands has increased the frequency and size of wildland fires within these ecosystems. Fire frequencies have increased by more than an order of magnitude and occur on 3-10 year intervals across much of the cheatgrass-dominated landscape. Extensive tree (Pinus spp. and Juniperus spp.) encroachment into wooded shrub-steppe has increased heavy fuel loads. Ladder fuels in these ecosystems promote rapidly spreading, high-intensity and severe ground-surface-crown fires. These altered fuel structures across much of the historical Great Basin shrub-steppe have initiated an upsurge in large rangeland wildfires and have increased the spatial and temporal vulnerability of these landscapes to amplified runoff and erosion. Resource and infrastructure damages, and loss of life have been reported due to flooding following recent large-scale burning of western rangelands and dry forests. We present a decade of post-fire rangeland hydrologic research that provides a foundation for conceptual modeling of the hydrologic impacts associated with an increased role of rangeland wildfires. We highlight advancements in predictive tools to address this large-scale phenomenon and discuss vital research voids requiring attention. Our geographic emphasis is the Great Basin Region, however, these concepts likely extend elsewhere given the increased role of fire in many geographic regions and across rangeland-to-forest ecotones in the western United States.

Nonfatal residential fire-related injuries treated in emergency departments--United States, 2001.

PubMed

2003-09-26

During 2000, the most recent year for which national mortality data are available, 3,907 persons died in the United States from fire-related injuries; residential fires accounted for 2,955 (76%) of these deaths. The National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) reported that approximately 396,500 residential fires occurred in 2001. Injuries from residential fires are preventable by improving awareness of the common causes of fires and by using simple interventions (e.g., properly maintained smoke alarms and fire escape plans). Surveillance of fire-related injuries can aid prevention by increasing the understanding of these injuries and by identifying at-risk populations to target for interventions and education. To characterize nonfatal residential fire-related injuries treated in U.S. hospital emergency departments (EDs) during 2001, CDC analyzed data from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Program (NEISS-AIP). This report summarizes the results of that analysis, which indicate that, in 2001, an estimated 25,717 nonfatal residential fire-related injuries were treated in U.S. hospital EDs. Fire prevention and safety interventions and education should target at-risk populations for fire-related injuries.

Estimating wildfire risk on a Mojave Desert landscape using remote sensing and field sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Linn, Peter F.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; DeFalco, Lesley A.; Inman, Richard D.; Abella, Scott R.

2013-01-01

Predicting wildfires that affect broad landscapes is important for allocating suppression resources and guiding land management. Wildfire prediction in the south-western United States is of specific concern because of the increasing prevalence and severe effects of fire on desert shrublands and the current lack of accurate fire prediction tools. We developed a fire risk model to predict fire occurrence in a north-eastern Mojave Desert landscape. First we developed a spatial model using remote sensing data to predict fuel loads based on field estimates of fuels. We then modelled fire risk (interactions of fuel characteristics and environmental conditions conducive to wildfire) using satellite imagery, our model of fuel loads, and spatial data on ignition potential (lightning strikes and distance to roads), topography (elevation and aspect) and climate (maximum and minimum temperatures). The risk model was developed during a fire year at our study landscape and validated at a nearby landscape; model performance was accurate and similar at both sites. This study demonstrates that remote sensing techniques used in combination with field surveys can accurately predict wildfire risk in the Mojave Desert and may be applicable to other arid and semiarid lands where wildfires are prevalent.

Western Spruce Budworm Outbreaks Did Not Increase Fire Risk over the Last Three Centuries: A Dendrochronological Analysis of Inter-Disturbance Synergism

PubMed Central

Flower, Aquila; G. Gavin, Daniel; Heyerdahl, Emily K.; Parsons, Russell A.; Cohn, Gregory M.

2014-01-01

Insect outbreaks are often assumed to increase the severity or probability of fire occurrence through increased fuel availability, while fires may in turn alter susceptibility of forests to subsequent insect outbreaks through changes in the spatial distribution of suitable host trees. However, little is actually known about the potential synergisms between these natural disturbances. Assessing inter-disturbance synergism is challenging due to the short length of historical records and the confounding influences of land use and climate changes on natural disturbance dynamics. We used dendrochronological methods to reconstruct defoliator outbreaks and fire occurrence at ten sites along a longitudinal transect running from central Oregon to western Montana. We assessed synergism between disturbance types, analyzed long-term changes in disturbance dynamics, and compared these disturbance histories with dendroclimatological moisture availability records to quantify the influence of moisture availability on disturbances. After approximately 1890, fires were largely absent and defoliator outbreaks became longer-lasting, more frequent, and more synchronous at our sites. Fires were more likely to occur during warm-dry years, while outbreaks were most likely to begin near the end of warm-dry periods. Our results show no discernible impact of defoliation events on subsequent fire risk. Any effect from the addition of fuels during defoliation events appears to be too small to detect given the overriding influence of climatic variability. We therefore propose that if there is any relationship between the two disturbances, it is a subtle synergistic relationship wherein climate determines the probability of occurrence of each disturbance type, and each disturbance type damps the severity, but does not alter the probability of occurrence, of the other disturbance type over long time scales. Although both disturbance types may increase in frequency or extent in response to future warming, our records show no precedent that western spruce budworm outbreaks will increase future fire risk. PMID:25526633

Western spruce budworm outbreaks did not increase fire risk over the last three centuries: a dendrochronological analysis of inter-disturbance synergism.

PubMed

Flower, Aquila; Gavin, Daniel G; Heyerdahl, Emily K; Parsons, Russell A; Cohn, Gregory M

2014-01-01

Insect outbreaks are often assumed to increase the severity or probability of fire occurrence through increased fuel availability, while fires may in turn alter susceptibility of forests to subsequent insect outbreaks through changes in the spatial distribution of suitable host trees. However, little is actually known about the potential synergisms between these natural disturbances. Assessing inter-disturbance synergism is challenging due to the short length of historical records and the confounding influences of land use and climate changes on natural disturbance dynamics. We used dendrochronological methods to reconstruct defoliator outbreaks and fire occurrence at ten sites along a longitudinal transect running from central Oregon to western Montana. We assessed synergism between disturbance types, analyzed long-term changes in disturbance dynamics, and compared these disturbance histories with dendroclimatological moisture availability records to quantify the influence of moisture availability on disturbances. After approximately 1890, fires were largely absent and defoliator outbreaks became longer-lasting, more frequent, and more synchronous at our sites. Fires were more likely to occur during warm-dry years, while outbreaks were most likely to begin near the end of warm-dry periods. Our results show no discernible impact of defoliation events on subsequent fire risk. Any effect from the addition of fuels during defoliation events appears to be too small to detect given the overriding influence of climatic variability. We therefore propose that if there is any relationship between the two disturbances, it is a subtle synergistic relationship wherein climate determines the probability of occurrence of each disturbance type, and each disturbance type damps the severity, but does not alter the probability of occurrence, of the other disturbance type over long time scales. Although both disturbance types may increase in frequency or extent in response to future warming, our records show no precedent that western spruce budworm outbreaks will increase future fire risk.

Investigating the association between weather conditions, calendar events and socio-economic patterns with trends in fire incidence: an Australian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, Jonathan; Higgs, Gary; Rohde, David; Chhetri, Prem

2011-06-01

Fires in urban areas can cause significant economic, physical and psychological damage. Despite this, there has been a comparative lack of research into the spatial and temporal analysis of fire incidence in urban contexts. In this paper, we redress this gap through an exploration of the association of fire incidence to weather, calendar events and socio-economic characteristics in South-East Queensland, Australia using innovative technique termed the quad plot. Analysing trends in five fire incident types, including malicious false alarms (hoax calls), residential buildings, secondary (outdoor), vehicle and suspicious fires, results suggest that risk associated with all is greatly increased during school holidays and during long weekends. For all fire types the lowest risk of incidence was found to occur between one and six a.m. It was also found that there was a higher fire incidence in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods and there was some evidence to suggest that there may be a compounding impact of high temperatures in such areas. We suggest that these findings may be used to guide the operations of fire services through spatial and temporal targeting to better utilise finite resources, help mitigate risk and reduce casualties.

Providing the Fire Risk Map in Forest Area Using a Geographically Weighted Regression Model with Gaussin Kernel and Modis Images, a Case Study: Golestan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah-Heydari pour, A.; Pahlavani, P.; Bigdeli, B.

2017-09-01

According to the industrialization of cities and the apparent increase in pollutants and greenhouse gases, the importance of forests as the natural lungs of the earth is felt more than ever to clean these pollutants. Annually, a large part of the forests is destroyed due to the lack of timely action during the fire. Knowledge about areas with a high-risk of fire and equipping these areas by constructing access routes and allocating the fire-fighting equipment can help to eliminate the destruction of the forest. In this research, the fire risk of region was forecasted and the risk map of that was provided using MODIS images by applying geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel and ordinary least squares over the effective parameters in forest fire including distance from residential areas, distance from the river, distance from the road, height, slope, aspect, soil type, land use, average temperature, wind speed, and rainfall. After the evaluation, it was found that the geographically weighted regression model with Gaussian kernel forecasted 93.4% of the all fire points properly, however the ordinary least squares method could forecast properly only 66% of the fire points.

Building Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN) capability and capacity: Lessons learned From Victoria, Australia's Bushfire Behavior Predictive Services Strategy

Treesearch

K. E. Gibos; A. Slijepcevic; T. Wells; L. Fogarty

2015-01-01

Wildland fire managers must frequently make meaning from chaos in order to protect communities and infrastructure from the negative impacts of fire. Fire management personnel are increasingly turning to science to support their experience-based decision-making processes and to provide clear, confident leadership for communities frequently exposed to risk from wildfire...

Predicting mortality of ponderosa pine regeneration after prescribed fire in the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA

Treesearch

Mike Battaglia; Frederick W. Smith; Wayne D. Shepperd

2009-01-01

Reduction of crown fire hazard in Pinus ponderosa forests in the Black Hills, SD, often focuses on the removal of overstorey trees to reduce crown bulk density. Dense ponderosa pine regeneration establishes several years after treatment and eventually increases crown fire risk if allowed to grow. Using prescribed fire to control this regeneration is...

Climate change impact on fire probability and severity in Mediterranean areas

Treesearch

Bachisio Arca; Grazia Pellizzaro; Pierpaolo Duce; Michele Salis; Valentina Bacciu; Donatella Spano; Alan Ager; Mark Finney

2010-01-01

Fire is one of the most significant threats for the Mediterranean forested areas. Global change may increase the wildland fire risk due to the combined effect of air temperature and humidity on fuel status, and the effect of wind speed on fire behaviour. This paper investigated the potential effect of the climate changes predicted for the Mediterranean basin by a...

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2016-01-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996-2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

Operating room fires: a closed claims analysis.

PubMed

Mehta, Sonya P; Bhananker, Sanjay M; Posner, Karen L; Domino, Karen B

2013-05-01

To assess patterns of injury and liability associated with operating room (OR) fires, closed malpractice claims in the American Society of Anesthesiologists Closed Claims Database since 1985 were reviewed. All claims related to fires in the OR were compared with nonfire-related surgical anesthesia claims. An analysis of fire-related claims was performed to identify causative factors. There were 103 OR fire claims (1.9% of 5,297 surgical claims). Electrocautery was the ignition source in 90% of fire claims. OR fire claims more frequently involved older outpatients compared with other surgical anesthesia claims (P < 0.01). Payments to patients were more often made in fire claims (P < 0.01), but payment amounts were lower (median $120,166) compared to nonfire surgical claims (median $250,000, P < 0.01). Electrocautery-induced fires (n = 93) increased over time (P < 0.01) to 4.4% claims between 2000 and 2009. Most (85%) electrocautery fires occurred during head, neck, or upper chest procedures (high-fire-risk procedures). Oxygen served as the oxidizer in 95% of electrocautery-induced OR fires (84% with open delivery system). Most electrocautery-induced fires (n = 75, 81%) occurred during monitored anesthesia care. Oxygen was administered via an open delivery system in all high-risk procedures during monitored anesthesia care. In contrast, alcohol-containing prep solutions and volatile compounds were present in only 15% of OR fires during monitored anesthesia care. Electrocautery-induced fires during monitored anesthesia care were the most common cause of OR fires claims. Recognition of the fire triad (oxidizer, fuel, and ignition source), particularly the critical role of supplemental oxygen by an open delivery system during use of the electrocautery, is crucial to prevent OR fires. Continuing education and communication among OR personnel along with fire prevention protocols in high-fire-risk procedures may reduce the occurrence of OR fires.

Moving beyond traditional fire management practices to better minimize community vulnerability to wildfire in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syphard, A. D.; Keeley, J. E.; Brennan, T. J.

2010-12-01

Wildfires are an important natural process in southern California, but they also present a major hazard for human life and property. The region leads the nation in fire-related losses, and since 2001, wildfires have damaged or destroyed more than 10,000 homes. As human ignitions have increased along with urban development and population growth, fire frequency has also surged, and most home losses occur in large fires when ignitions coincide with Santa Ana windstorms. As the region accommodates more growth in the future, the wildfire threat promises to continue. We will thus explore how a broader, more comprehensive approach to fire management could improve upon traditional approaches for reducing community vulnerability. The traditional approach to mitigating fire risk, in addition to fire suppression, has been to reduce fuel through construction of fuel breaks. Despite increasing expenditure on these treatments, there has been little empirical study of their role in controlling large fires. We will present the results of a study in which we constructed and analyzed a spatial database of fuel breaks in southern California national forests. Our objective was to better understand characteristics of fuel breaks that affect the behavior of large fires and to map where fires and fuel breaks most commonly intersect. We found that fires stopped at fuel breaks 22-47% of the time, depending on the forest, and the reason fires stopped was invariably related to firefighter access and management activities. Fire weather and fuel break condition were also important. The study illustrates the importance of strategic location of fuel breaks because they have been most effective where they provided access for firefighting activities. While fuel breaks have played a role in controlling wildfires at the Wildland Urban Interface, we are evaluating alternative approaches for reducing community vulnerability, including land use planning. Recent research shows that the amount and spatial arrangement of human infrastructure, such as roads and housing developments, strongly influences wildfire patterns. Therefore, we hypothesize that the spatial arrangement and location of housing development is likely to affect the susceptibility of lives and property to fire. In other words, potential for urban loss may be greatest at specific housing densities, spatial patterns of development, and locations of development. If these risk factors can be identified, mapped, and modeled, it is possible that vulnerability to wildfire could be substantially minimized through careful planning for future development - especially because future development will likely increase the region’s fire risk. To address these possibilities, we are evaluating past housing loss in relation to land use planning, in conjunction with other variables that influence fire patterns. We are also exploring alternative future scenarios to identify optimum land use planning strategies for minimizing fire risk.

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

Management options for mitigating Nitrogen (N) losses from N-saturated mixed-conifer forests in California

Treesearch

Benjamin S. Gimeno; Fengming Yuan; Mark E. Fenn; Thomas Meixner

2009-01-01

Mixed-conifer forests of southern California are exposed to nitrogen (N) deposition levels that impair carbon (C) and N cycling, enhance forest flammability, increase the risk of fire occurrence and air pollution emissions in fire, and increase nitrate...

Mapping regional patterns of large forest fires in Wildland-Urban Interface areas in Europe.

PubMed

Modugno, Sirio; Balzter, Heiko; Cole, Beth; Borrelli, Pasquale

2016-05-01

Over recent decades, Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) trends in many regions of Europe have reconfigured the landscape structures around many urban areas. In these areas, the proximity to landscape elements with high forest fuels has increased the fire risk to people and property. These Wildland-Urban Interface areas (WUI) can be defined as landscapes where anthropogenic urban land use and forest fuel mass come into contact. Mapping their extent is needed to prioritize fire risk control and inform local forest fire risk management strategies. This study proposes a method to map the extent and spatial patterns of the European WUI areas at continental scale. Using the European map of WUI areas, the hypothesis is tested that the distance from the nearest WUI area is related to the forest fire probability. Statistical relationships between the distance from the nearest WUI area, and large forest fire incidents from satellite remote sensing were subsequently modelled by logistic regression analysis. The first European scale map of the WUI extent and locations is presented. Country-specific positive and negative relationships of large fires and the proximity to the nearest WUI area are found. A regional-scale analysis shows a strong influence of the WUI zones on large fires in parts of the Mediterranean regions. Results indicate that the probability of large burned surfaces increases with diminishing WUI distance in touristic regions like Sardinia, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or in regions with a strong peri-urban component as Catalunya, Comunidad de Madrid, Comunidad Valenciana. For the above regions, probability curves of large burned surfaces show statistical relationships (ROC value > 0.5) inside a 5000 m buffer of the nearest WUI. Wise land management can provide a valuable ecosystem service of fire risk reduction that is currently not explicitly included in ecosystem service valuations. The results re-emphasise the importance of including this ecosystem service in landscape valuations to account for the significant landscape function of reducing the risk of catastrophic large fires. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland-urban interface homeowners' wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes

Treesearch

Christine S. Olsen; Jeffrey D. Kline; Alan A. Ager; Keith A. Olsen; Karen C. Short

2017-01-01

Expansion of the wildland–urban interface (WUI) and the increasing size and number of wildfires has policy-makers and wildfire managers seeking ways to reduce wildfire risk in communities located near fire-prone forests. It is widely acknowledged that homeowners can reduce their exposure to wildfire risk by using nonflammable building materials and reducing tree...

Increasing resiliency in frequent fire forests: Lessons from the Sierra Nevada and western Australia

Treesearch

Scott L. Stephens

2014-01-01

This paper will primarily focus on the management and restoration of forests adapted to frequent, low-moderate intensity fire regimes. These are the forest types that are most at risk from large, high-severity wildfires and in many regions their fire regimes are changing. Fire as a landscape process can exhibit self-limiting characteristics in some forests which can...

Protect Thy Neighbor: Investigating the Spatial Externalities of Community Wildfire Hazard Mitigation

Treesearch

David Butry; Geoffrey Donovan

2008-01-01

Climate change, increased wildland fuels, and residential development patterns in fire-prone areas all combine to make wildfire risk mitigation an important public policy issue. One approach to wildfire risk mitigation is to encourage homeowners to use fire-resistant building materials and to create defensible spaces around their homes. We develop a theoretical model...

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Fires in Non-drought Conditions in Indonesia: the Role of Increasing Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Verchot, L. V.; Baethgen, W.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Martius, C.

2017-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

78 FR 2947 - Manti-La Sal National Forest, Utah; Maverick Point Forest Health Project

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-15

... class structure via use of timber harvesting and prescribed fire. Project activities also seek to.... Over the last 20 years drought conditions have increased; fire size, severity, and total acres burned... fire regimes have been significantly altered from their historical range. The risk of losing key...

Implementation of National Fire Plan treatments near the wildland-urban interface in the western United States.

PubMed

Schoennagel, Tania; Nelson, Cara R; Theobald, David M; Carnwath, Gunnar C; Chapman, Teresa B

2009-06-30

Because of increasing concern about the effects of catastrophic wildland fires throughout the western United States, federal land managers have been engaged in efforts to restore historical fire behavior and mitigate wildfire risk. During the last 5 years (2004-2008), 44,000 fuels treatments were implemented across the western United States under the National Fire Plan (NFP). We assessed the extent to which these treatments were conducted in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where they would have the greatest potential to reduce fire risk in neighboring homes and communities. Although federal policies stipulate that significant resources should be invested in the WUI, we found that only 3% of the area treated was within the WUI, and another 8% was in an additional 2.5-km buffer around the WUI, totaling 11%. Only 17% of this buffered WUI is under federal ownership, which significantly limits the ability of federal agencies to implement fire-risk reduction treatments near communities. Although treatments far from the WUI may have some fire mitigation benefits, our findings suggest that greater priority must be given to locating treatments in and near the WUI, rather than in more remote settings, to satisfy NFP goals of reducing fire risk to communities. However, this may require shifting management and policy emphasis from public to private lands.

Bulletin of Forest Fire risk in Albania- The experience of the Albania National Centre for forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdufi, I.; Jaupaj, O.; Marku, M.; Deda, M.; Fiori, E.; D'Andrea, M.; Biondi, G.; Fioruci, P.; Massabò, M.; Zorba, P.; Gjonaj, M.

2012-04-01

In the territory of Albania usually every year around 1000 ha are affected by forest fires, from which about 500 ha are completely destroyed. The number of forest fires (nf), with the burning surface (bs) in years has been like this: during the years 1988-1998: nf / bs = 2.19, 1998-2001: nf / bs = 5.66, year 2002 -2005: nf / bs = 8.2, and during the years 2005-2006: nf / bs = 11.9, while economic losses in a year by forest fires is about 2 million of Euro. The increase in years of these figures and the last floods which happened in the last two years in Shkoder, led to an international cooperation, that between the Italian Civil Protection Department and the Albania General Directorate of Civil Emergency. The focus of this cooperation was the building capacity of the Albanian National System of Civil Protection in forecasting, monitoring and prevention forest fires and floods risks. As a result of this collaboration the "National Center for the Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Risks", was set up at the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment. The Center is the first of its kind in Albania. The mission of the Center is the prediction and monitoring of the forest fire and flood risk in the Albanian territory, as a tools for risk reduction and mitigation. The first step to achieve this strategy was the implementation of the forest fires risk forecast model "RISICO". RISICO was adapted for whole Albania territory by CIMA Research Foundation. The Center, in the summer season, issues a daily bulletin. The bulletin reports the potential risk scenarios related with the ignition and propagation of fires in Albania. The bulletin is broadcasted through email or fax within 12.00 AM of each working day. It highlights where and when severe risk conditions may occur within the next 48 hours

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of suppression expenditure models

Treesearch

Michael S. Hand; Krista M. Gebert; Jingjing Liang; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson; Mo Zhou

2014-01-01

In the United States, increased wildland fire activity over the last 15 years has resulted in increased pressure to balance the cost, benefits, and risks of wildfire management. Amid increased public scrutiny and a highly variable wildland fire environment, a substantial body of research has developed to study factors affecting the cost-effectiveness of wildfire...

Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation.

PubMed

Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira; Nepstad, Daniel; Coe, Michael; Rodrigues, Hermann; Assunção, Renato

2011-07-01

Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems, the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the future. Here we present a probabilistic model of human-induced fire occurrence for the Amazon that integrates the effects of a series of anthropogenic factors with climatic conditions described by vapor pressure deficit. The model was calibrated using NOAA-12 night satellite hot pixels for 2003 and validated for the years 2002, 2004, and 2005. Assessment of the fire risk map yielded fitness values > 85% for all months from 2002 to 2005. Simulated fires exhibited high overlap with NOAA-12 hot pixels regarding both spatial and temporal distributions, showing a spatial fit of 50% within a radius of 11 km and a maximum yearly frequency deviation of 15%. We applied this model to simulate fire regimes in the Amazon until 2050 using IPCC's A2 scenario climate data from the Hadley Centre model and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of deforestation and road expansion from SimAmazonia. Results show that the combination of these scenarios may double forest fire occurrence outside protected areas (PAs) in years of extreme drought, expanding the risk of fire even to the northwestern Amazon by midcentury. In particular, forest fires may increase substantially across southern and southwestern Amazon, especially along the highways slated for paving and in agricultural zones. Committed emissions from Amazon forest fires and deforestation under a scenario of global warming and uncurbed deforestation may amount to 21 +/- 4 Pg of carbon by 2050. BAU deforestation may increase fires occurrence outside PAs by 19% over the next four decades, while climate change alone may account for a 12% increase. In turn, the combination of climate change and deforestation would boost fire occurrence outside PAs by half during this period. Our modeling results, therefore, confirm the synergy between the two Ds of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries).

Pinus contorta invasions increase wildfire fuel loads and may create a positive feedback with fire.

PubMed

Taylor, Kimberley T; Maxwell, Bruce D; McWethy, David B; Pauchard, Aníbal; Nuñez, Martín A; Whitlock, Cathy

2017-03-01

Invasive plant species that have the potential to alter fire regimes have significant impacts on native ecosystems. Concern that pine invasions in the Southern Hemisphere will increase fire activity and severity and subsequently promote further pine invasion prompted us to examine the potential for feedbacks between Pinus contorta invasions and fire in Patagonia and New Zealand. We determined how fuel loads and fire effects were altered by P. contorta invasion. We also examined post-fire plant communities across invasion gradients at a subset of sites to assess how invasion alters the post-fire vegetation trajectory. We found that fuel loads and soil heating during simulated fire increase with increasing P. contorta invasion age or density at all sites. However, P. contorta density did not always increase post-fire. In the largest fire, P. contorta density only increased significantly post-fire where the pre-fire P. contorta density was above an invasion threshold. Below this threshold, P. contorta did not dominate after fire and plant communities responded to fire in a similar manner as uninvaded communities. The positive feedback observed at high densities is caused by the accumulation of fuel that in turn results in greater soil heating during fires and high P. contorta density post-fire. Therefore, a positive feedback may form between P. contorta invasions and fire, but only above an invasion density threshold. These results suggest that management of pine invasions before they reach the invasion density threshold is important for reducing fire risk and preventing a transition to an alternate ecosystem state dominated by pines and novel understory plant communities. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

2010-01-01

This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

The homeowner view of thinning methods for fire hazard reduction: more positive than many think

Treesearch

Sarah McCaffrey

2008-01-01

With the focus of the National Fire Plan on decreasing fire risk in the wildland-urban interface, fire managers are increasingly tasked with reducing the fuel load in areas where mixed public and private ownership and a growing number of homes can make most fuel reduction methods problematic at best. In many of these intermix areas, use of prescribed burning will be...

Using prescribed fire to reduce the risk of large wildfires: A break-even analysis

Treesearch

James M. Saveland

1987-01-01

Nearly all wildfires are extinguished when they are still small. The 3-5% that get out of control cause 95% of all wildfire-related costs and damages (Dodge 1972, Wilson 1985). There are two ways to deal with these problem fires. One practice is to limit fire by suppressing fires as soon as possible after they are detected. Increasing the capability of suppression...

Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shvidenko, Anatoly; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

2013-04-01

On-going climatic changes substantially accelerate current fire regimes in Northern Eurasian ecosystems, particularly in forests. During 1998-2012, wildfires enveloped on average ~10.5 M ha year-1 in Russia with a large annual variation (between 3 and 30 M ha) and average direct carbon emissions at ~150 Tg C year-1. Catastrophic fires, which envelope large areas, spread in usually incombustible wetlands, escape from control and provide extraordinary negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, economics, infrastructure, environment, and health of population, become a typical feature of the current fire regimes. There are new evidences of correlation between catastrophic fires and large-scale climatic anomalies at a continental scale. While current climatic predictions suggest the dramatic warming (at the average at 6-7 °C for the country and up to 10-12°C in some northern continental regions), any substantial increase of summer precipitation does not expected. Increase of dryness and instability of climate will impact fire risk and severity of consequences. Current models suggest a 2-3 fold increase of the number of fires by the end of this century in the boreal zone. They predict increases of the number of catastrophic fires; a significant increase in the intensity of fire and amount of consumed fuel; synergies between different types of disturbances (outbreaks of insects, unregulated anthropogenic impacts); acceleration of composition of the gas emissions due to enhanced soil burning. If boreal forests would become a typing element, the mass mortality of trees would increase fire risk and severity. Permafrost melting and subsequent change of hydrological regimes very likely will lead to the degradation and destruction of boreal forests, as well as to the widespread irreversible replacement of forests by other underproductive vegetation types. A significant feedback between warming and escalating fire regimes is very probable in Russia and particularly in the permafrost areas. Overall, Russia should expect a disproportionate escalation of fire regimes compared to increasing climatic fire danger. Thus, development and implementation of an efficient adaptation strategy is a pressing problem of current forest management of the country. An appropriate system of forest fire protection which would be able to meet challenges of future climates is a corner stone of such a strategy. We consider possible systems solutions of this complex problem including (1) integrated ecological and socio-economic analysis of current and future fire regimes; (2) regional requirements to and specific features of a new paradigm of forest fire protection in the boreal zone of Northern Eurasia; (3) anticipatory strategy of the prevention of large-scale disturbances in forests, including adaptation of forest landscapes to the future climates (regulation of tree composition; setup of relevant spatial structure of forest landscapes; etc.); (4) implementation of an effective system of forest monitoring as part of integrated observing systems; (5) transition to ecologically-friendly systems of industrial development of northern territories; (6) development of new/ improvement of existing legislation and institutional frameworks of forest management which would be satisfactory to react on challenges of climate change; and (6) international cooperation.

Emergency responders' critical infrared (ERCI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konsin, Larry S.

2004-08-01

Emergency Responders (Fire, Police, Medical, and Emergency Management) face a high risk of injury or death. Even before September 11, 2001, public and private organizations have been driven to better protect Emergency Responders through education, training and improved technology. Recent research on Emergency Responder safety, health risks, and personal protective requirements, shows infrared (IR) imaging as a critical need. Today"s Emergency Responders are increasingly challenged to do more, facing demands requiring technological assistance and/or solutions. Since the introduction of Fire Service IR imaging in the mid 1990s, applications have increased. Emergency response IR is no longer just seeing through smoke to find victims or the seat of a fire. Many more mission critical needs now exist across the broad spectrum of emergency response. At the same time, Emergency Responder injuries and deaths are increasing. The Office of Domestic Preparedness (ODP) has also recognized IR imaging as critical in protecting our communities -- and in preventing many of the injuries and deaths of Emergency Responders. Currently, only 25% of all fire departments (or less than 7% of individual firefighters) have IR imaging. Availability to Police, EMS and Emergency Management is even lower. Without ERCI, Emergency Responders and our communities are at risk.

Fire fit: assessing comprehensive fitness and injury risk in the fire service.

PubMed

Poplin, Gerald S; Roe, Denise J; Burgess, Jefferey L; Peate, Wayne F; Harris, Robin B

2016-02-01

This study sought to develop a comprehensive measure of fitness that is predictive of injury risk and can be used in the fire service to assess individual-level health and fit-for-duty status. A retrospective occupational cohort of 799 career fire service employees was observed over the years 2005-2009. An equally weighted score for comprehensive fitness was calculated based on cardiovascular fitness, muscular strength, endurance, flexibility, and body composition. Repeated measures survival analyses were used to estimate the risk of any injury, sprain or strain, and exercise-related injuries in relation to comprehensive fitness. A well-distributed comprehensive fitness score was developed to distinguish three tiers of overall fitness status. Intraclass correlations identified flexibility, total grip strength, percent body fat, and resting heart rate as the most reliable fitness metrics, while push-ups, sit-ups, and aerobic capacity demonstrated poor reliability. In general, individuals with a lower comprehensive fitness status had an increased injury risk of injury as compared to the most fit individuals. The risk of any injury was 1.82 (95% CI 1.06-3.11) times as likely for the least fit individuals, as compared to individuals in the top fire fitness category, increasing to 2.90 (95% CI 1.48-5.66) when restricted to sprains and strains. This 5-year analysis of clinical occupational health assessments enabled the development of a relevant metric for relating comprehensive fitness with the risk of injury. Results were consistent with previous studies focused on cardiorespiratory fitness, but also less susceptible to inter-individual variability of discrete measurements.

Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riley, Karin L.; Loehman, Rachel A.

2016-01-01

Climate changes are expected to increase fire frequency, fire season length, and cumulative area burned in the western United States. We focus on the potential impact of mid-21st-century climate changes on annual burn probability, fire season length, and large fire characteristics including number and size for a study area in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Although large fires are rare they account for most of the area burned in western North America, burn under extreme weather conditions, and exhibit behaviors that preclude methods of direct control. Allocation of resources, development of management plans, and assessment of fire effects on ecosystems all require an understanding of when and where fires are likely to burn, particularly under altered climate regimes that may increase large fire occurrence. We used the large fire simulation model FSim to model ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires under two climate scenarios: contemporary (based on instrumental weather) and mid-century (based on an ensemble average of global climate models driven by the A1B SRES emissions scenario). Modeled changes in fire patterns include increased annual burn probability, particularly in areas of the study region with relatively short contemporary fire return intervals; increased individual fire size and annual area burned; and fewer years without large fires. High fire danger days, represented by threshold values of Energy Release Component (ERC), are projected to increase in number, especially in spring and fall, lengthening the climatic fire season. For fire managers, ERC is an indicator of fire intensity potential and fire economics, with higher ERC thresholds often associated with larger, more expensive fires. Longer periods of elevated ERC may significantly increase the cost and complexity of fire management activities, requiring new strategies to maintain desired ecological conditions and limit fire risk. Increased fire activity (within the historical range of frequency and severity, and depending on the extent to which ecosystems are adapted) may maintain or restore ecosystem functionality; however, in areas that are highly departed from historical fire regimes or where there is disequilibrium between climate and vegetation, ecosystems may be rapidly and persistently altered by wildfires, especially those that burn under extreme conditions.

Estimating small mammal abundance on fuels treatment units in southwestern ponderosa pine forests

Treesearch

Sarah J. Converse; Brett G. Dickson; Gary C. White; William M. Block

2004-01-01

In many North American forests, post-European settlement fire suppression efforts have resulted in the excessive accumulation of forest fuels and changes to the historic fire regime, thereby increasing the risk of catastrophic wildfires (Cooper 1960; Dodge 1972; Covington and Moore 1994). To reduce this risk, it is necessary to develop treatments that will remove...

Comparison of Interglacial fire dynamics in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Daniau, Anne-Laure

2016-04-01

Responses of fire activity to a change in climate are still uncertain and biases exist by integrating this non-linear process into global modeling of the Earth system. Warming and regional drying can force fire activity in two opposite directions: an increase in fire in fuel supported ecosystems or a fire reduction in fuel-limited ecosystems. Therefore, climate variables alone can not be used to estimate the fire risk because vegetation variability is an important determinant of fire dynamics and responds itself to change in climate. Southern Africa (south of 20°S) paleofire history reconstruction obtained from the analysis of microcharcoal preserved in a deep-sea core located off Namibia reveals changes of fire activity on orbital timescales in the precession band. In particular, increase in fire is observed during glacial periods, and reduction of fire during interglacials such as the Eemian and the Holocene. The Holocene was characterized by even lower level of fire activity than Eemian. Those results suggest the alternance of grass-fueled fires during glacials driven by increase in moisture and the development of limited fueled ecosystems during interglacials characterized by dryness. Those results question the simulated increase in the fire risk probability projected for this region under a warming and drying climate obtained by Pechony and Schindell (2010). To explore the validity of the hypotheses we conducted a data-model comparison for both interglacials from 126.000 to 115.000 BP for the Eemian and from 8.000 to 2.000 BP for the Holocene. Data out of a transient, global modeling study with a Vegetation-Fire model of full complexity (JSBACH) is used, driven by a Climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER). Climate data like precipitation and temperature as well as vegetation data like soil moisture, productivity (NPP) on plant functional type level are used to explain trends in fire activity. The comparison of trends in fire activity during the Eemian (126.000 to 120.000 BP) and the Holocene (8.000 to 200 BP) shows an increase in fire data and in simulated fire. Lower level of fire during the Holocene than Eemian can be explained by differences due to unequal trends in vegetation as a result of climate forcing due to orbital changes: while woody type vegetation plays a major role during the Eemian, the Holocene is influenced by grass land. From the modelling perspective changes in the seasonal precipitation drives the vegetation pattern.

Can Fire and Rescue Services and the National Health Service work together to improve the safety and wellbeing of vulnerable older people? Design of a proof of concept study.

PubMed

Lowton, Karen; Laybourne, Anne H; Whiting, David G; Martin, Finbarr C

2010-12-03

Older adults are at increased risk both of falling and of experiencing accidental domestic fire. In addition to advanced age, these adverse events share the risk factors of balance or mobility problems, cognitive impairment and socioeconomic deprivation. For both events, the consequences include significant injury and death, and considerable socioeconomic costs for the individual and informal carers, as well as for emergency services, health and social care agencies.Secondary prevention services for older people who have fallen or who are identifiable as being at high risk of falling include NHS Falls clinics, where a multidisciplinary team offers an individualised multifactorial targeted intervention including strength and balance exercise programmes, medication changes and home hazard modification. A similar preventative approach is employed by most Fire and Rescue Services who conduct Home Fire Safety Visits to assess and, if necessary, remedy domestic fire risk, fit free smoke alarms with instruction for use and maintenance, and plan an escape route. We propose that the similarity of population at risk, location, specific risk factors and the commonality of preventative approaches employed could offer net gains in terms of feasibility, effectiveness and acceptability if activities within these two preventative approaches were to be combined. This prospective proof of concept study, currently being conducted in two London boroughs, (Southwark and Lambeth) aims to reduce the incidence of both fires and falls in community-dwelling older adults. It comprises two concurrent 12-month interventions: the integration of 1) fall risk assessments into the Brigade's Home Fire Safety Visit and 2) fire risk assessments into Falls services by inviting older clinic attendees to book a Visit. Our primary objective is to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of these interventions. Furthermore, we are evaluating their acceptability and value to key stakeholders and services users. If our approach proves feasible and the risk assessment is both effective and acceptable, we envisage advocating a partnership model of working more broadly to fire and rescue services and health services in Britain, such that effective integration of preventative services for older people becomes routine for an ageing population.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management.

PubMed

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G; McIntire, Eliot J B

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover's direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate-fire-fuels systems.

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

A risk-based approach to wildland fire budgetary planning

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Krista M. Gebert; Michael S. Hand

2013-01-01

The financial impact of wildfire management within the USDA Forest Service challenges the ability of the agency to meet societal demands and maintain forest health. The extent of this financial crisis has been attributed to historical and continuing fire management practices, changing climatic conditions, and increasing human development in fire-prone areas, as well as...

Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatments

Treesearch

James K. Agee; Carl N. Skinner

2005-01-01

Successful fire exclusion in the 20th century has created severe fire problems across the West. Not every forest is at risk of uncharacteristically severe wildfire, but drier forests are in need of active management to mitigate fire hazard. We summarize a set of simple principles important to address in fuel reduction treatments: reduction of surface fuels, increasing...

Modeling erosion on steep sagebrush rangeland before and after prescribed fire

Treesearch

Corey A. Moffet; Frederick B. Pierson; Kenneth E. Spaeth

2007-01-01

Fire in sagebrush rangelands significantly alters canopy cover, ground cover, and soil properties that influence runoff and erosion processes. Runoff is generated more quickly and a larger volume of runoff is produced following prescribed fire. The result is increased risk of severe erosion and downstream flooding. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP), developed...

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management

PubMed Central

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G.; McIntire, Eliot J. B.

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover’s direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate–fire–fuels systems. PMID:28609467

Effects of prescribed fire, supplemental feeding, and mammalian predator exclusion on hispid cotton rat populations.

PubMed

Morris, Gail; Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Conner, L Mike; Oli, Madan K

2011-12-01

Predation and food resources can strongly affect small mammal population dynamics directly by altering vital rates or indirectly by influencing behaviors. Fire may also strongly influence population dynamics of species inhabiting fire-adapted habitats because fire can alter food and cover availability. We used capture-mark-recapture and radio-telemetry studies to experimentally examine how supplemental feeding, mammalian predator exclusion, and prescribed fire affected survival, abundance, and reproduction of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus) in southwestern Georgia, USA. Prescribed fire reduced survival, abundance, and rates of transitions to reproductive states. Food supplementation increased survival, transitions to reproductive states, and abundance, but was not sufficient to prevent post-fire declines in any of these parameters. Mammalian predator exclusion did not strongly affect any of the considered parameters. Our results show that fire strongly influenced cotton rat populations in our study site, primarily by reducing cover and increasing predation risk from non-mammalian predators.

Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia's spinifex grasslands.

PubMed

Bliege Bird, Rebecca; Codding, Brian F; Kauhanen, Peter G; Bird, Douglas W

2012-06-26

Across diverse ecosystems, greater climatic variability tends to increase wildfire size, particularly in Australia, where alternating wet-dry cycles increase vegetation growth, only to leave a dry overgrown landscape highly susceptible to fire spread. Aboriginal Australian hunting fires have been hypothesized to buffer such variability, mitigating mortality on small-mammal populations, which have suffered declines and extinctions in the arid zone coincident with Aboriginal depopulation. We test the hypothesis that the relationship between climate and fire size is buffered through the maintenance of an anthropogenic, fine-grained fire regime by comparing the effect of climatic variability on landscapes dominated by Martu Aboriginal hunting fires with those dominated by lightning fires. We show that Aboriginal fires are smaller, more tightly clustered, and remain small even when climate variation causes huge fires in the lightning region. As these effects likely benefit threatened small-mammal species, Aboriginal hunters should be considered trophic facilitators, and policies aimed at reducing the risk of large fires should promote land-management strategies consistent with Aboriginal burning regimes.

Cinema Fire Modelling by FDS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glasa, J.; Valasek, L.; Weisenpacher, P.; Halada, L.

2013-02-01

Recent advances in computer fluid dynamics (CFD) and rapid increase of computational power of current computers have led to the development of CFD models capable to describe fire in complex geometries incorporating a wide variety of physical phenomena related to fire. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for cinema fire modelling. FDS is an advanced CFD system intended for simulation of the fire and smoke spread and prediction of thermal flows, toxic substances concentrations and other relevant parameters of fire. The course of fire in a cinema hall is described focusing on related safety risks. Fire properties of flammable materials used in the simulation were determined by laboratory measurements and validated by fire tests and computer simulations

A sensible climate solution for the boreal forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astrup, Rasmus; Bernier, Pierre Y.; Genet, Hélène; Lutz, David A.; Bright, Ryan M.

2018-01-01

Climate change could increase fire risk across most of the managed boreal forest. Decreasing this risk by increasing the proportion of broad-leaved tree species is an overlooked mitigation-adaption strategy with multiple benefits.

Seasonal variation in surface fuel moisture between unthinned and thinned mixed conifer forest, northern California, USA

Treesearch

Becky L. Estes; Eric E. Knapp; Carl N. Skinner; Fabian C. C. Uzoh

2012-01-01

Reducing stand density is often used as a tool for mitigating the risk of high-intensity crown fires. However, concern has been expressed that opening stands might lead to greater drying of surface fuels, contributing to increased fire risk. The objective of this study was to determine whether woody fuel moisture differed between unthinned and thinned mixed-conifer...

Evaluating Post-Fire Forest Resilience Using GIS and Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

Evaluating post-fire forest resilience using GIS and multi-criteria analysis: an example from Cape Sounion National Park, Greece.

PubMed

Arianoutsou, Margarita; Koukoulas, Sotirios; Kazanis, Dimitrios

2011-03-01

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance in the mediterranean climate ecosystems of the world. Despite the fact that a lot of resources have been invested in fire prevention and suppression, the number of fires occurring in the Mediterranean Basin in the recent decades has continued to markedly increase. The understanding of the relationship between landscape and fire lies, among others, in the identification of the system's post-fire resilience. In our study, ecological and landscape data are integrated with decision-support techniques in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to evaluate the risk of losing post-fire resilience in Pinus halepensis forests, using Cape Sounion National Park, Central Greece, as a pilot case. The multi-criteria decision support approach has been used to synthesize both bio-indicators (woody cover, pine density, legume cover and relative species richness and annual colonizers) and geo-indicators (fire history, parent material, and slope inclination) in order to rank the landscape components. Judgments related to the significance of each factor were incorporated within the weights coefficients and then integrated into the multicriteria rule to map the risk index. Sensitivity analysis was very critical for assessing the contribution of each factor and the sensitivity to subjective weight judgments to the final output. The results of this study include a final ranking map of the risk of losing resilience, which is very useful in identifying the "risk hotspots", where post-fire management measures should be applied in priority.

Policy change and governance at the wildland-urban interface: the case of post-wildfire impacts in Boise, Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindquist, Eric

2013-04-01

In the summer of 2012 over 1.7 million acres (approximately 6900 sq kilometers) were burned from wildfires in the state of Idaho in the Western United States. While most of the these fires were in rural and wilderness areas, several significant fires occurred at the wildland-urban interface (WUI), threatening houses, communities and the built environment as never before. As the population of the Mountain West in the United States grows, the WUI (the area where homes are being built adjacent to traditionally wild or rural areas and the built environment encroaches on wildlands) is rapidly becoming an at risk area for human habitation. Efforts to make these areas more resilient and sustainable in the face of increasing fire risk, due to increasing drought and climate change, are resulting in efforts to change or adapt disaster response and planning policy. An increase in stakeholders, however, with diverse objectives and resources presents an opportunity to assess the current governance situation for policy change in response to wildland fires in the dynamic and complex context of the WUI. The research presented here will focus on the case of Treasure Valley region of southwest Idaho and Boise, the capitol city of Idaho. This region is illustrative of the growing urban western United States and the pressures from a growing population pushing into the WUI. This research frames fire policy and decision making at the wildland-urban interface within public policy process theory using the example of the summer of 2012 forest fires in Idaho (USA) and focuses on subsequents impact these fires are having on fire planning and policy in the Boise metropolitan region. The focus is on the diverse stakeholders (federal, state and regional agencies, tourism, agriculture and private sector interests, homeowner organizations, and fire response and recovery agencies) and their roles and responsibilities, their interactions, decision and policy processes, the use of science in decision making, post and pre disaster assessments, and subsequent policy changes. The conclusions will reflect on the outlook for the future of the WUI in regard to wildfire risk and response and on the contribution of policy process theory to this policy domain. This paper/poster addresses significant theoretical and empirical issues raised in the Call for Papers for NH7.1 "Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires: models, theory and reality," including: pre-fire planning and risk management; post-fire evaluation; relation between wildfires and social changes; and the influence of weather and climate change on wildfire activity.

Locating spatial variation in the association between wildland fire risk and social vulnerability across six southern states

Treesearch

Neelam Poudyal; Cassandra Johnson Gaither; Scott Goodrick; J.M. Bowker; Jianbang Gan

2012-01-01

Wildland fire in the South commands considerable attention, given the expanding wildland urban interface (WUI) across the region. Much of this growth is propelled by higher income retirees and others desiring natural amenity residential settings. However, population growth in the WUI increases the likelihood of wildfire fire ignition caused by people, as humans account...

Laboratory investigation of fire protection coatings for creosote-treated timber railroad bridges

Treesearch

Carol A. Clausen; Robert H. White; James P. Wacker; Stan T. Lebow; Mark A. Dietenberger; Samuel L. Zelinka; Nicole M. Stark

2014-01-01

As the incidence of timber railroad bridge fires increases, so has the need to develop protective measures to reduce the risk from accidental ignitions primarily caused by hot metal objects. Of the six barrier treatments evaluated in the laboratory for their ability to protect timbers from fires sourced with ignition from hot metal objects only one intumescent coating...

Midstory reduction treatments with a Shinn SC-1

Treesearch

Dana Mitchell; Bob Rummer

1999-01-01

Fire control and exclusion have led to an increase in the non-commercial midstory and understory components of forest stands on the Croatan National Forest near the coast of North Carolina. The growth of this vegetation has created a fire risk in the wildland-urban interface. The use of a mechanical fuel management treatment is being explored in areas where fire...

Wildfires and post-fire erosion risk in a coastal area under severe anthropic pressure associated with the touristic fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canu, Annalisa; Arca, Bachisio; Pellizzaro, Grazia; Valeriano Pintus, Gian; Ferrara, Roberto; Duce, Pierpaolo

2017-04-01

In the last decades a rapid and intense development of the tourism industry led to an increasing of anthropic pressure on several coastal areas of Sardinia. This fact not only modified the coastal aesthetics, but has also generated an increase of risk for the environment. This phenomenon affected also the ancient structure of the landscape with a negative impact mainly caused by the following factors: land abandonment, wildfire occurrence, post-fire erosion, urbanization. These regional changes can be analyzed in detail by considering the geo-diachronic dynamics. The main objectives of this work were i) to perform a diachronic analysis of land use and land cover dynamics, ii) to analyse the recent dynamics of wildfires, and iii) to predict the soil erosion risk in relation to land use change occurred between the 1950s and the 2000s. The study was realized in a coastal area located in North-East Sardinia where the geo-historical processes were summarized and organized in a geographic information system that has been employed to examine the landscape variations at three different time steps: 1954, 1977 and 2000. In addition, different scenarios of wildfire propagation were simulated by FlamMap in order to estimate the spatial pattern of fire danger factors in the study area. Afterwards, maps of post-fire soil erosion were produced to identify the temporal and spatial variations of the erosion risk. The results show how the changes in land use and the significant and rapid increase of the residential areas affect the risk of both wildfires and post-fire soil erosion. The study reveals the capabilities of this type of approach and can be used by management agencies and policy makers e in sustainable landscape management planning. This approach can be extended to other regions of the Mediterranean basin characterized by complex interactions among landscape and anthropic factors affecting the environmental risk.

A human-driven decline in global burned area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andela, N.

2017-12-01

Fire regimes are changing rapidly across the globe, driven by human land management and climate. We assessed long-term trends in fire activity using multiple satellite data sets and developed a new global data set on individual fire dynamics to understand the implications of changing fire regimes. Despite warming climate, burned area declined across most of the tropics, contributing to a global decline in burned area of 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area was largest in savannas and grasslands, where agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. In tropical forests, frequent fires for deforestation and agricultural management yield a sharp rise in fire activity with the expansion of settled land uses, but the use of fire decreases with increasing investment in agricultural areas in both savanna and forested landscapes. Disparate patterns of recent socieconomic development resulted in contrasting fire trends between southern Africa (increase) and South America (decrease). A strong inverse relationship between burned area and economic development in savannas and grasslands suggests that despite potential increasing fire risk from climate change, ongoing socioeconomic development will likely sustain observed declines in fire in these ecosystems during coming decades. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. The spatiotemporal distribution of fire size, duration, speed and direction of spread provided new insights in continental scale differences in fire regimes driven by human and climatic factors. Understanding these dynamics over larger scales is critical to achieve a balance between conservation of fire-dependent ecosystems and increasing agricultural production to support growing populations that will require careful management of fire activity in human-dominated landscapes.

Wildfire Risk Mapping over the State of Mississippi: Land Surface Modeling Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cooke, William H.; Mostovoy, Georgy; Anantharaj, Valentine G

2012-01-01

Three fire risk indexes based on soil moisture estimates were applied to simulate wildfire probability over the southern part of Mississippi using the logistic regression approach. The fire indexes were retrieved from: (1) accumulated difference between daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (P-E); (2) top 10 cm soil moisture content simulated by the Mosaic land surface model; and (3) the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI). The P-E, KBDI, and soil moisture based indexes were estimated from gridded atmospheric and Mosaic-simulated soil moisture data available from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2). Normalized deviations of these indexes from the 31-year meanmore » (1980-2010) were fitted into the logistic regression model describing probability of wildfires occurrence as a function of the fire index. It was assumed that such normalization provides more robust and adequate description of temporal dynamics of soil moisture anomalies than the original (not normalized) set of indexes. The logistic model parameters were evaluated for 0.25 x0.25 latitude/longitude cells and for probability representing at least one fire event occurred during 5 consecutive days. A 23-year (1986-2008) forest fires record was used. Two periods were selected and examined (January mid June and mid September December). The application of the logistic model provides an overall good agreement between empirical/observed and model-fitted fire probabilities over the study area during both seasons. The fire risk indexes based on the top 10 cm soil moisture and KBDI have the largest impact on the wildfire odds (increasing it by almost 2 times in response to each unit change of the corresponding fire risk index during January mid June period and by nearly 1.5 times during mid September-December) observed over 0.25 x0.25 cells located along the state of Mississippi Coast line. This result suggests a rather strong control of fire risk indexes on fire occurrence probability over this region.« less

Western forest, fire risk, and climate change

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

Western forests, fire risk, and climate change.

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

Wildfire risk and home purchase decisions.

Treesearch

Patricia Champ; Geoffrey Donovan; Christopher Barth

2008-01-01

In the last 20 years, wildfire damages and the costs of wildfire suppression have risen dramatically. This trend has been attributed to three main factors: climate change, increased fuel loads from a century of wildfire suppression, and increased housing development in fire-prone areas., There is little that fire managers can do about climate change, and current fuel...

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Large-Scale Controls and Characteristics of Fire Activity in Central Chile, 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McWethy, D. B.; Pauchard, A.; García, R.; Holz, A.; González, M.; Veblen, T. T.; Stahl, J.

2016-12-01

In recent decades, fire activity has increased in many ecosystems worldwide, even where fuel conditions and natural ignitions historically limited fire activity, and this increase begs questions of whether climate change, land-use change, and/or altered vegetation are responsible. Increased frequency of large fires in these settings has been attributed to drier-than-average summers and longer fire seasons as well as fuel accumulation related to ENSO events, raising concerns about the trajectory of post-fire vegetation dynamics and future fire regimes. In temperate and Mediterranean forests of central Chile, recent large fires associated with altered ecosystems, climate variability and land-use change highlight the risk and hazard of increasing fire activity yet the causes and consequences are poorly understood. To better understand characteristics of recent fire activity, key drivers of fire occurrence and the spatial probability of wildfire we examined the relationship between fire activity derived from MODIS satellite imagery and biophysical, land-cover and land-use variables. The probability of fire occurrence and annual area burned was best predicted by seasonal precipitation, annual temperature and land cover type. The likelihood of fire occurrence was greatest in Matorral shrublands, agricultural lands (including pasture lands) and Pinus and Eucalyptus plantations, highlighting the importance of vegetation type and fuel flammability as a critical control on fire activity. Our results suggest that land-use change responsible for the widespread presence of highly flammable vegetation and projections for continued warming and drying will likely combine to promote the occurrence of large fires in central Chile in the future.

Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States.

PubMed

Balch, Jennifer K; Bradley, Bethany A; Abatzoglou, John T; Nagy, R Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J; Mahood, Adam L

2017-03-14

The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal "fire niche" in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km 2 , the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km 2 , primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards.

Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States

PubMed Central

Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J.; Mahood, Adam L.

2017-01-01

The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal “fire niche” in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2, the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2, primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards. PMID:28242690

Mapping forest canopy fuels in Yellowstone National Park using lidar and hyperspectral data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halligan, Kerry Quinn

The severity and size of wildland fires in the forested western U.S have increased in recent years despite improvements in fire suppression efficiency. This, along with increased density of homes in the wildland-urban interface, has resulted in high costs for fire management and increased risks to human health, safety and property. Crown fires, in comparison to surface fires, pose an especially high risk due to their intensity and high rate of spread. Crown fire models require a range of quantitative fuel parameters which can be difficult and costly to obtain, but advances in lidar and hyperspectral sensor technologies hold promise for delivering these inputs. Further research is needed, however, to assess the strengths and limitations of these technologies and the most appropriate analysis methodologies for estimating crown fuel parameters from these data. This dissertation focuses on retrieving critical crown fuel parameters, including canopy height, canopy bulk density and proportion of dead canopy fuel, from airborne lidar and hyperspectral data. Remote sensing data were used in conjunction with detailed field data on forest parameters and surface reflectance measurements. A new method was developed for retrieving Digital Surface Model (DSM) and Digital Canopy Models (DCM) from first return lidar data. Validation data on individual tree heights demonstrated the high accuracy (r2 0.95) of the DCMs developed via this new algorithm. Lidar-derived DCMs were used to estimate critical crown fire parameters including available canopy fuel, canopy height and canopy bulk density with linear regression model r2 values ranging from 0.75 to 0.85. Hyperspectral data were used in conjunction with Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) to assess fuel quality in the form of live versus dead canopy proportions. Severity and stage of insect-caused forest mortality were estimated using the fractional abundance of green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation and shade obtained from SMA. Proportion of insect attack was estimated with a linear model producing an r2 of 0.6 using SMA and bark endmembers from image and reference libraries. Fraction of red attack, with a possible link to increased crown fire risk, was estimated with an r2 of 0.45.

Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

2015-12-01

The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had meaningful result with artificial and natural effect. It is expected to predict future forest fire risk with future climate variables as the climate changes.

Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Saffron J.; Handmer, John

2012-03-01

The 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia’s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (‘Stay or Go’), plus an examination of the Commission’s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved.

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

PubMed Central

Legg, Colin J.

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2. PMID:27833814

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires.

PubMed

Davies, G Matt; Legg, Colin J

2016-01-01

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire-driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes.

PubMed

Pellegrini, Adam F A; Franco, Augusto C; Hoffmann, William A

2016-03-01

Numerous predictions indicate rising CO2 will accelerate the expansion of forests into savannas. Although encroaching forests can sequester carbon over the short term, increased fires and drought-fire interactions could offset carbon gains, which may be amplified by the shift toward forest plant communities more susceptible to fire-driven dieback. We quantify how bark thickness determines the ability of individual tree species to tolerate fire and subsequently determine the fire sensitivity of ecosystem carbon across 180 plots in savannas and forests throughout the 2.2-million km(2) Cerrado region in Brazil. We find that not accounting for variation in bark thickness across tree species underestimated carbon losses in forests by ~50%, totaling 0.22 PgC across the Cerrado region. The lower bark thicknesses of plant species in forests decreased fire tolerance to such an extent that a third of carbon gains during forest encroachment may be at risk of dieback if burned. These results illustrate that consideration of trait-based differences in fire tolerance is critical for determining the climate-carbon-fire feedback in tropical savanna and forest biomes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Can Fire and Rescue Services and the National Health Service work together to improve the safety and wellbeing of vulnerable older people? Design of a proof of concept study

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Older adults are at increased risk both of falling and of experiencing accidental domestic fire. In addition to advanced age, these adverse events share the risk factors of balance or mobility problems, cognitive impairment and socioeconomic deprivation. For both events, the consequences include significant injury and death, and considerable socioeconomic costs for the individual and informal carers, as well as for emergency services, health and social care agencies. Secondary prevention services for older people who have fallen or who are identifiable as being at high risk of falling include NHS Falls clinics, where a multidisciplinary team offers an individualised multifactorial targeted intervention including strength and balance exercise programmes, medication changes and home hazard modification. A similar preventative approach is employed by most Fire and Rescue Services who conduct Home Fire Safety Visits to assess and, if necessary, remedy domestic fire risk, fit free smoke alarms with instruction for use and maintenance, and plan an escape route. We propose that the similarity of population at risk, location, specific risk factors and the commonality of preventative approaches employed could offer net gains in terms of feasibility, effectiveness and acceptability if activities within these two preventative approaches were to be combined. Methods/Design This prospective proof of concept study, currently being conducted in two London boroughs, (Southwark and Lambeth) aims to reduce the incidence of both fires and falls in community-dwelling older adults. It comprises two concurrent 12-month interventions: the integration of 1) fall risk assessments into the Brigade's Home Fire Safety Visit and 2) fire risk assessments into Falls services by inviting older clinic attendees to book a Visit. Our primary objective is to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of these interventions. Furthermore, we are evaluating their acceptability and value to key stakeholders and services users. Discussion If our approach proves feasible and the risk assessment is both effective and acceptable, we envisage advocating a partnership model of working more broadly to fire and rescue services and health services in Britain, such that effective integration of preventative services for older people becomes routine for an ageing population. PMID:21129185

Mastication and prescribed fire impacts on fuels in a 25-year old ponderosa pine plantation, southern Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Alicia L. Reiner; Nicole M. Vaillant; JoAnn Fites-Kaufman; Scott N. Dailey

2009-01-01

Due to increases in tree density and hazardous fuel loading in Sierra Nevadan forests, land management is focusing on fuel reduction treatments to moderate the risk of catastrophic fires. Fuel treatments involving mechanical and prescribed fire methods can reduce surface as well as canopy fuel loads. Mastication is a mechanical method which shreds smaller trees and...

Burn and they will come! The western regional birds and burns study examines bird responses to prescribed fire

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson; John Lehmkuhl

2008-01-01

Although prescribed fire is increasingly being used in ponderosa pine forests as a management tool to reduce the risk of future high-severity wildfire, its effects on wildlife habitat have rarely been examined. The Birds and Burns Network was created to assist managers in planning prescribed fire projects that will reduce fuels and enhance bird habitat. Researchers...

El Niño Could Drive Intense Season for Amazon Fires

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

El Niño conditions in 2015 and early 2016 altered rainfall patterns around the world. In the Amazon, El Niño reduced rainfall during the wet season, leaving the region drier at the start of the 2016 dry season than any year since 2002, according to NASA satellite data. Wildfire risk for the dry season months of July to October this year now exceeds fire risk in 2005 and 2010, drought years when wildfires burned large areas of Amazon rainforest, said Doug Morton, an Earth scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who helped create the fire forecast. "Severe drought conditions at the start of the dry season set the stage for extreme fire risk in 2016 across the southern Amazon," Morton said. The Amazon fire forecast uses the relationship between climate and active fire detections from NASA satellites to predict fire season severity during the region’s dry season. Developed in 2011 by scientists at University of California, Irvine and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the forecast model is focused particularly on the link between sea surface temperatures and fire activity. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic oceans shift rainfall away from the Amazon region, increasing the risk of fires during dry season months. Read more: go.nasa.gov/2937ADt NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Modeling Payload Stowage Impacts on Fire Risks On-Board the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anton, Kellie e.; Brown, Patrick F.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this presentation is to determine the risks of fire on-board the ISS due to non-standard stowage. ISS stowage is constantly being reexamined for optimality. Non-standard stowage involves stowing items outside of rack drawers, and fire risk is a key concern and is heavily mitigated. A Methodology is needed to account for fire risk due to non-standard stowage to capture the risk. The contents include: 1) Fire Risk Background; 2) General Assumptions; 3) Modeling Techniques; 4) Event Sequence Diagram (ESD); 5) Qualitative Fire Analysis; 6) Sample Qualitative Results for Fire Risk; 7) Qualitative Stowage Analysis; 8) Sample Qualitative Results for Non-Standard Stowage; and 9) Quantitative Analysis Basic Event Data.

Health concerns of the U.S. fire service: perspectives from the firehouse.

PubMed

Jahnke, Sara A; Poston, Walker S C; Jitnarin, Nattinee; Haddock, C Keith

2012-01-01

Firefighters are expected to respond to any domestic emergency at a moment's notice, and therefore their health and readiness are key to the public safety net. Although emerging research is focusing on understanding firefighters' increased risk for disease and injury, the perspectives of fire service personnel is lacking. This study uses the cross-sectional qualitative data collection techniques of key informant interviews and focus groups. Data collection occurred with a national sample of firefighters from 28 (municipal and federal) career fire departments. Participants were 332 career firefighters (57.2%), company officers (23.4%), fire chiefs (15.4%), and other fire service personnel (3.9%). Focus groups and informant interviews were conducted with firefighters, fire chiefs, health promotion personnel, and medical directors to assess attitudes, opinions, and perceptions about firefighter health. Major themes that developed among fire service personnel included concerns about cancer, risk of cardiovascular disease, the importance of and barriers to physical fitness, the food culture of the firehouse, psychological stress resulting from repeated exposure to trauma, sleep disruptions, injuries, and risk for infectious disease. Health concerns identified by firefighters are juxtaposed with current efforts and trends within the national fire service. The health concerns of firefighters parallel both available epidemiological research and the health priorities of national fire service organizations. Unfortunately, these concerns often are in contrast with efforts by local governments to limit their financial liability for illnesses presumed to be caused by occupational exposures and long-held traditions in the fire service. This study highlights the need for epidemiological surveillance of firefighters and innovative health and organizational policy in the fire service. Future directions for the fire service, the public health community, and researchers are discussed.

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Aboriginal hunting buffers climate-driven fire-size variability in Australia’s spinifex grasslands

PubMed Central

Bliege Bird, Rebecca; Codding, Brian F.; Kauhanen, Peter G.

2012-01-01

Across diverse ecosystems, greater climatic variability tends to increase wildfire size, particularly in Australia, where alternating wet–dry cycles increase vegetation growth, only to leave a dry overgrown landscape highly susceptible to fire spread. Aboriginal Australian hunting fires have been hypothesized to buffer such variability, mitigating mortality on small-mammal populations, which have suffered declines and extinctions in the arid zone coincident with Aboriginal depopulation. We test the hypothesis that the relationship between climate and fire size is buffered through the maintenance of an anthropogenic, fine-grained fire regime by comparing the effect of climatic variability on landscapes dominated by Martu Aboriginal hunting fires with those dominated by lightning fires. We show that Aboriginal fires are smaller, more tightly clustered, and remain small even when climate variation causes huge fires in the lightning region. As these effects likely benefit threatened small-mammal species, Aboriginal hunters should be considered trophic facilitators, and policies aimed at reducing the risk of large fires should promote land-management strategies consistent with Aboriginal burning regimes. PMID:22689979

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Forest Fire Risk and Danger Using LANDSAT Imagery.

PubMed

Saglam, Bülent; Bilgili, Ertugrul; Dincdurmaz, Bahar; Kadiogulari, Ali Ihsan; Kücük, Ömer

2008-06-20

Computing fire danger and fire risk on a spatio-temporal scale is of crucial importance in fire management planning, and in the simulation of fire growth and development across a landscape. However, due to the complex nature of forests, fire risk and danger potential maps are considered one of the most difficult thematic layers to build up. Remote sensing and digital terrain data have been introduced for efficient discrete classification of fire risk and fire danger potential. In this study, two time-series data of Landsat imagery were used for determining spatio-temporal change of fire risk and danger potential in Korudag forest planning unit in northwestern Turkey. The method comprised the following two steps: (1) creation of indices of the factors influencing fire risk and danger; (2) evaluation of spatio-temporal changes in fire risk and danger of given areas using remote sensing as a quick and inexpensive means and determining the pace of forest cover change. Fire risk and danger potential indices were based on species composition, stand crown closure, stand development stage, insolation, slope and, proximity of agricultural lands to forest and distance from settlement areas. Using the indices generated, fire risk and danger maps were produced for the years 1987 and 2000. Spatio-temporal analyses were then realized based on the maps produced. Results obtained from the study showed that the use of Landsat imagery provided a valuable characterization and mapping of vegetation structure and type with overall classification accuracy higher than 83%.

Effectiveness of thinning and prescribed fire in reducing wildfire severity

Treesearch

Philip N. Omi; Erik J. Martinson

2004-01-01

The severity of recent fire seasons in the United States has provided dramatic evidence of the increasing complexity of wildfire problems. A wide variety of indicators suggest worsening dilemmas: extent of area burned, ecosystems at risk, funds expended, homes destroyed or evacuated, and human fatalities and injuries; all seem to be on the increase or have peaked in...

Predicting fire impact from plant traits?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoof, Cathelijne; Ottink, Roos; Zylstra, Philip; Cornelissen, Hans; Fernandes, Paulo

2017-04-01

Fire can considerably increase the landscape's vulnerability to flooding and erosion, which is in part caused by fire-induced soil heating, vegetation removal and resulting hydrological changes. While the magnitude of these fire effects and ecosystem responses is frequently studied, there is still little attention for the fundamental mechanisms that drive these changes. One example is on the effect of plants: while it is known that plants can alter the fire environment, there is a major knowledge gap regarding the fundamental mechanisms by which vegetation mediates fire impact on soil and hydrology. Essential to identifying these mechanisms is consideration of the effects of vegetation on flammability and fire behaviour, which are studied both in ecology and traditional fire science. Here we discuss the challenges of integrating these very distinct fields and the potential benefits of this integration for improved understanding of fire effects on soil and hydrology. We furthermore present results of a study in which we assessed the spatial drivers controlling the proportion of live and dead fuel in a natural park in northern Portugal, and evaluated the impacts on the spatial variability of fire behaviour and potential soil heating using BehavePlus modeling. Better understanding of the role of (spatial variability in) plant traits on fire impact can facilitate the development of risk maps to ultimately help predict and mitigate fire risk and impact across landscapes.

Quantifying and predicting fuels and the effects of reduction treatments along successional and invasion gradients in sagebrush habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shinneman, Douglas; Pilliod, David S.; Arkle, Robert; Glenn, Nancy F.

2015-01-01

Sagebrush shrubland ecosystems in the Great Basin are prime examples of how altered successional trajectories can create dynamic fuel conditions and, thus, increase uncertainty about fire risk and behavior. Although fire is a natural disturbance in sagebrush, post-fire environments are highly susceptible to conversion to an invasive grass-fire regime (often referred to as a “grass-fire cycle”). After fire, native shrub-steppe plants are often slow to regenerate, whereas nonnative annuals, especially cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae), can establish quickly and outcompete native species. Once fire-prone annuals become established, fire occurrences increase, further promoting dominance of nonnative species. The invasive grass-fire regime also alters nutrient and hydrologic cycles, pushing ecosystems beyond ecological thresholds toward steady-state, fire-prone, nonnative communities. These changes affect millions of hectares in the Great Basin and increase fire risk, decrease habitat quality and biodiversity, accelerate soil erosion, and degrade rangeland resources for livestock production. In many sagebrush landscapes, constantly changing plant communities and fuel conditions hinder attempts by land managers to predict and control fire behavior, restore native communities, and provide ecosystem services (e.g., forage production for livestock). We investigated successional and nonnative plant invasion states and associated fuel loads in degraded sagebrush habitat in a focal study area, the Morley Nelson Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (hereafter the NCA), in the Snake River Plain Ecoregion of southern Idaho. We expanded our inference by comparing our findings to similar data collected throughout seven major land resource areas (MLRAs) across the Great Basin (JFSP Project “Fire Rehabilitation Effectiveness: A Chronosequence Approach for the Great Basin” [09-S-02-1]). 4 We used a combination of field-sampling, experimental treatments, and remotely sensed data to address the following questions: (1) How do fuel loads change along gradients of succession and invasion in sagebrush ecological sites? (2) How do fuel reduction treatments influence fuels in invaded areas formerly dominated by sagebrush? (3) How do fuel loads vary across landscapes and which remote sensing techniques are effective for characterizing them?

Land Use Planning and Wildfire: Development Policies Influence Future Probability of Housing Loss

PubMed Central

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Bar Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction. PMID:23977120

College's hot topics? Wildfire and Hazards' risk perception among university's population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuerzer, T.

2014-12-01

This research presents a novel perspective on college students and their risk perception in a fire prone US State; Idaho. Idaho was "top #1" in burned lands by acreage in 2012 with approximate 15% of all US burned lands; in 2013 "top #2". Past studies have conducted surveys on residents in high wildfire risk communities to learn what factors make homeowners more likely to engage in mitigation activities and therefore increase communities' resiliency. This research emphasis is on a population that deals with the threat of fire but is likely less invested through property ownership and other investment of risk; yet, equally threatened in quality of life. Are college students the left-out population in the 'planning for wildfires' and its communication process? Main hypothesis is that a college population will have a different perception and awareness (and therefore mitigation actions) than i.e. residents invested in the wild land urban interface (WUI). Dominant research methodologies in past studies are identified as surveys, focus groups, or interviews focusing on homeowners in fire prone areas that have witnessed wildfire or are exposed to increasing fire risk. Yet again, research on population that has no property ownership, investments at stake, and therefore no direct monetary values associated (but potentially non-monetary), is found little to none in these studies. The university population based study and its findings offers a contrast to current literature related to these traditional residents surveys/interviews. The study's survey and interactive spatial assessment of risk perception with allocation of perceived hazards zones promotes understanding of where risk is apparent for participants. Results are used to inform agencies such as campus emergency management, regional wild fire mitigation efforts, and to enhance public communication. Lessons learned include the challenges of a comprehensive inclusion process when mitigating for hazards and building resiliency in a region with development pressures.

Health outcomes associated with smoke exposure in Albuquerque, New Mexico, during the 2011 Wallow fire.

PubMed

Resnick, Adam; Woods, Brian; Krapfl, Heidi; Toth, Barbara

2015-01-01

This study examined the association between PM2.5 levels and emergency department (ED) visits for selected health outcomes in Albuquerque, New Mexico, during the Wallow fire of 2011. Measurements of 24-hour average concentrations of PM2.5 obtained from the City of Albuquerque were used to calculate wildfire smoke exposure in Albuquerque. Daily ED visits were collected by the New Mexico Department of Health from individual nonfederal licensed facilities in the Albuquerque area. Poisson regression was used to assess the relationship between ED visits for selected respiratory and cardiovascular conditions and varying levels of PM2.5 exposure. Albuquerque, New Mexico. Patients visiting an ED for select conditions before, during, and after the wildfire. Relative increase in ED visits for selected conditions during the wildfire period. Analysis of PM2.5 exposure data and ED visits in Albuquerque before and during the Wallow fire indicated that compared with the period prior to the fire, there was an increased risk of ED visits for some respiratory and cardiovascular conditions during heavy smoke conditions, and risk varied by age and sex. The population of 65+ years was especially at risk for increased ED visits. There was a significantly increased risk of ED visits among the 65+ population for asthma (RR [relative rate] = 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03-2.93) and for diseases of the veins, lymphatic and circulatory system (RR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.00-2.43). For the age group of 20 to 64 years, there was a statistically significant increase in ED visits for diseases of pulmonary circulation (RR = 2.64, 95% CI = 1.42-4.9) and for cerebrovascular disease (RR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.03-2.77). High levels of PM2.5 exposure due to the Wallow fire were associated with increased ED visits for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions in Albuquerque. More effective and targeted preventive measures are necessary to reduce morbidity rates associated with wildfire smoke exposure among vulnerable populations.

Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L.

2014-01-01

The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem services. We conclude with an assessment of the role of fire management in an increasingly flammable Southwest.

Risk-based Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Issacci, F.; Paulos, T.; Jones, S.; Paxton, K.; Paul, M.

1992-01-01

Viewgraphs on risk-based spacecraft fire safety experiments are presented. Spacecraft fire risk can never be reduced to a zero probability. Probabilistic risk assessment is a tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

Risk factors for rural residential fires.

PubMed

Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen; Zwerling, Craig

2007-01-01

Rural households report high fire-related mortality and injury rates, but few studies have examined the risk factors for fires. This study aims to identify occupant and household characteristics that are associated with residential fires in a rural cohort. Of 1,005 households contacted in a single rural county, 691 (68.8%) agreed to participate. One household with missing information on a reported fire was excluded from the analysis. We used logistic regression to examine the independent association of occupant and household characteristics with reported fires, controlling for years lived in the residence. We also examined the association between the occurrence of previous fires and the adoption of safety measures. A total of 78 (11.3%) households reported a residential fire. Occupant characteristics that were associated with significantly higher odds of reported fires included the presence of an occupant with alcohol problems (OR = 1.82, 95% CI = 1.01-3.28) and being married (OR = 2.11, 95% CI = 1.14-3.91). Rural farm households were associated with significantly higher odds (OR = 1.72, 95% CI = 1.01-2.93) of reporting a fire when compared to residences in towns, after controlling for all other occupant and household characteristics. The presence of a fire extinguisher (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.10-3.64) was the only fire safety measure that had a statistically significant association with reported fire. Rural farm households report higher incidences of fire when compared to households located in towns. Experiencing a fire is not associated with an increased likelihood of adopting safety measures to prevent injuries once a fire has started.

The effect of fire on habitat selection of mammalian herbivores: the role of body size and vegetation characteristics.

PubMed

Eby, Stephanie L; Anderson, T Michael; Mayemba, Emilian P; Ritchie, Mark E

2014-09-01

Given the role of fire in shaping ecosystems, especially grasslands and savannas, it is important to understand its broader impact on these systems. Post-fire stimulation of plant nutrients is thought to benefit grazing mammals and explain their preference for burned areas. However, fire also reduces vegetation height and increases visibility, thereby potentially reducing predation risk. Consequently, fire may be more beneficial to smaller herbivores, with higher nutritional needs and greater risks of predation. We tested the impacts of burning on different sized herbivores' habitat preference in Serengeti National Park, as mediated by burning's effects on vegetation height, live : dead biomass ratio and leaf nutrients. Burning caused a less than 4 month increase in leaf nitrogen (N), and leaf non-N nutrients [copper (Cu), potassium (K), and magnesium (Mg)] and a decrease in vegetation height and live : dead biomass. During this period, total herbivore counts were higher on burned areas. Generally, smaller herbivores preferred burned areas more strongly than larger herbivores. Unfortunately, it was not possible to determine the vegetation characteristics that explained burned area preference for each of the herbivore species observed. However, total herbivore abundance and impala (Aepyceros melampus) preference for burned areas was due to the increases in non-N nutrients caused by burning. These findings suggest that burned area attractiveness to herbivores is mainly driven by changes to forage quality and not potential decreases in predation risk caused by reductions in vegetation height. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Introduction to fire danger rating and remote sensing - Will remote sensing enhance wildland fire danger prediction?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allgöwer, Britta; Carlson, J.D.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Chuvieco, Emilio

2003-01-01

While ‘Fire Danger’ per se cannot be measured, the physical properties of the biotic and abiotic world that relate to fire occurrence and fire behavior can. Today, increasingly sophisticated Remote Sensing methods are being developed to more accurately detect fuel properties such as species composition (fuel types), vegetation structure or plant water content - to name a few. Based on meteorological input data and physical, semi-physical or empirical model calculations, Wildland Fire Danger Rating Systems provide ‘indirect values’ - numerical indices - at different temporal scales (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) denoting the physical conditions that may lead to fire ignition and support fire propagation. The results can be expressed as fire danger levels, ranging from ‘low’ to ‘very high’, and are commonly used in operational wildland fire management (e.g., the Canadian Fire Weather Index [FWI] System, the Russian Nesterov Index, or the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System [NFDRS]). Today, fire danger levels are often turned into broad scale maps with the help of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) showing the areas with the different fire danger levels, and are distributed via the World Wide Web.In this chapter we will outline some key issues dealing with Remote Sensing and GIS techniques that are covered in the following chapters, and elaborate how the Fire Danger Rating concepts could be integrated into a framework that enables comprehensive and sustainable wildland fire risk assessment. To do so, we will first raise some general thoughts about wildland fires and suggest how to approach this extremely complex phenomenon. Second, we will outline a possible fire risk analysis framework and third we will give a short overview on existing Fire Danger Rating Systems and the principles behind them.

Hydrocarbon characterization experiments in fully turbulent fires.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ricks, Allen; Blanchat, Thomas K.

As the capabilities of numerical simulations increase, decision makers are increasingly relying upon simulations rather than experiments to assess risks across a wide variety of accident scenarios including fires. There are still, however, many aspects of fires that are either not well understood or are difficult to treat from first principles due to the computational expense. For a simulation to be truly predictive and to provide decision makers with information which can be reliably used for risk assessment the remaining physical processes must be studied and suitable models developed for the effects of the physics. The model for the fuelmore » evaporation rate in a liquid fuel pool fire is significant because in well-ventilated fires the evaporation rate largely controls the total heat release rate from the fire. A set of experiments are outlined in this report which will provide data for the development and validation of models for the fuel regression rates in liquid hydrocarbon fuel fires. The experiments will be performed on fires in the fully turbulent scale range (> 1 m diameter) and with a number of hydrocarbon fuels ranging from lightly sooting to heavily sooting. The importance of spectral absorption in the liquid fuels and the vapor dome above the pool will be investigated and the total heat flux to the pool surface will be measured. The importance of convection within the liquid fuel will be assessed by restricting large scale liquid motion in some tests. These data sets will provide a sound, experimentally proven basis for assessing how much of the liquid fuel needs to be modeled to enable a predictive simulation of a fuel fire given the couplings between evaporation of fuel from the pool and the heat release from the fire which drives the evaporation.« less

Cigarette Fires Involving Upholstered Furniture in Residences: The Role that Smokers, Smoker Behavior, and Fire Standard Compliant Cigarettes Play.

PubMed

Butry, David T; Thomas, Douglas S

2017-05-01

Residential structure fires pose a significant risk to life and property. A major source of these fires is the ignition of upholstered furniture by cigarettes. It has long been established that cigarettes and other lighted tobacco products could ignite upholstered furniture and were a leading cause of fire deaths in residences. In recent years, states have adopted fire standard compliant cigarettes ('FSC cigarettes') that are made with a wrapping paper that contains regularly spaced bands, which increases the likelihood of self-extinguishment. This paper measures the effectiveness of FSC cigarettes on the number of residential fires involving upholstered furniture, and the resulting fatalities, injuries, and extent of flame spread, while accounting for the under-reporting of fire incidents. In total, four models were estimated using fire department data from 2002 to 2011. The results provide evidence that FSC cigarettes, on average, reduced the number of residential fires by 45 %, reduced fatalities by 23 %, and extent of flame spread by 27 % in 2011. No effect on injuries was found. Within each state, effectiveness is moderated by the number of smokers and their consumption patterns. In general, FSC cigarettes are more effective in places with a large smoking population who engage in heavier smoking. There is a very limited effect on the lightest of smokers, suggesting behavioral differences between heavy and light smokers that influence fire risk.

Cigarette Fires Involving Upholstered Furniture in Residences: The Role that Smokers, Smoker Behavior, and Fire Standard Compliant Cigarettes Play

PubMed Central

Butry, David T.; Thomas, Douglas S.

2017-01-01

Residential structure fires pose a significant risk to life and property. A major source of these fires is the ignition of upholstered furniture by cigarettes. It has long been established that cigarettes and other lighted tobacco products could ignite upholstered furniture and were a leading cause of fire deaths in residences. In recent years, states have adopted fire standard compliant cigarettes (‘FSC cigarettes’) that are made with a wrapping paper that contains regularly spaced bands, which increases the likelihood of self-extinguishment. This paper measures the effectiveness of FSC cigarettes on the number of residential fires involving upholstered furniture, and the resulting fatalities, injuries, and extent of flame spread, while accounting for the under-reporting of fire incidents. In total, four models were estimated using fire department data from 2002 to 2011. The results provide evidence that FSC cigarettes, on average, reduced the number of residential fires by 45 %, reduced fatalities by 23 %, and extent of flame spread by 27 % in 2011. No effect on injuries was found. Within each state, effectiveness is moderated by the number of smokers and their consumption patterns. In general, FSC cigarettes are more effective in places with a large smoking population who engage in heavier smoking. There is a very limited effect on the lightest of smokers, suggesting behavioral differences between heavy and light smokers that influence fire risk. PMID:28751788

Risk management of emergency service vehicle crashes in the United States fire service: process, outputs, and recommendations.

PubMed

Bui, David P; Pollack Porter, Keshia; Griffin, Stephanie; French, Dustin D; Jung, Alesia M; Crothers, Stephen; Burgess, Jefferey L

2017-11-17

Emergency service vehicle crashes (ESVCs) are a leading cause of death in the United States fire service. Risk management (RM) is a proactive process for identifying occupational risks and reducing hazards and unwanted events through an iterative process of scoping hazards, risk assessment, and implementing controls. We describe the process, outputs, and lessons learned from the application of a proactive RM process to reduce ESVCs in US fire departments. Three fire departments representative of urban, suburban, and rural geographies, participated in a facilitated RM process delivered through focus groups and stakeholder discussion. Crash reports from department databases were reviewed to characterize the context, circumstances, hazards and risks of ESVCs. Identified risks were ranked using a risk matrix that considered risk likelihood and severity. Department-specific control measures were selected based on group consensus. Interviews, and focus groups were used to assess acceptability and utility of the RM process and perceived facilitators and barriers of implementation. Three to six RM meetings were conducted at each fire department. There were 7.4 crashes per 100 personnel in the urban department and 10.5 per 100 personnel in the suburban department; the rural department experienced zero crashes. All departments identified emergency response, backing, on scene struck by, driver distraction, vehicle/road visibility, and driver training as high or medium concerns. Additional high priority risks varied by department; the urban department prioritized turning and rear ending crashes; the suburban firefighters prioritized inclement weather/road environment and low visibility related crashes; and the rural volunteer fire department prioritized exiting station, vehicle failure, and inclement weather/road environment related incidents. Selected controls included new policies and standard operating procedures to reduce emergency response, cameras to enhance driver visibility while backing, and increased training frequency and enhanced training. The RM process was generally acceptable to department participants and considered useful. All departments reported that the focused and systematic analysis of crashes was particularly helpful. Implementation of controls was a commonly cited challenge. Proactive RM of ESVCs in three US fire departments was positively received and supported the establishment of interventions tailored to each department's needs and priorities.

Is the current increase in fire recurrence causing a shift in the soil fertility of Iberian ecosystems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayor, Ángeles G.; Keizer, Jan Jacob; González-Pelayo, Óscar; Valdecantos, Alejandro; Vallejo, Ramón; de Ruiter, Peter

2015-04-01

Since the mid of the last century fire recurrence has increased in the Iberian peninsula and the overall Mediterranean basin due to changes in land use and climate. The warmer and drier climate projected for this region will further increase the risk of wildfire occurrence and of increasing fire recurrence. Although the impact of wildfires on soil nutrient content in this region has been extensively studied, still few works have assessed this impact on the basis of fire recurrence. This study assesses the changes in soil nutrient status of two Iberian ecosystems, Várzea (N Portugal) and Valencia (E Spain), affected by different levels of fire recurrence and where short inter-fire periods have promoted a transition from pine woodlands to shrublands. Trends towards soil fertility loss with increasing fire recurrence (one, two, three or four fires in 37 years) were observed in the two study sites. The sites differed when soil fertility of areas burned several times were compared with long unburned references. In Valencia, overall soil fertility of the surface mineral soil was lower in areas burned two or three times than in long unburned areas, twenty and eight years after the last fire, respectively. On the contrary, total organic matter in Várzea was higher in burned than in unburned soils one year after the occurrence of one or four fires. However, a negative impact of fire was observed for integrated indicators of soil quality, such as hot-water carbon and potentially mineralizable nitrogen, suggesting that fire also had an adverse effect on substrate quality in Várzea. Our results suggest that the current trend of increasing fire recurrence in Southern Europe may result in losses or alterations of soil organic matter, particularly when fire promotes a transition from pine woodland to shrubland.

Carbon Emission from Forest Fires on Scots Pine Logging Sites in the Angara Region of Central Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanova, G. A.; Conard, S. G.; McRae, D. J.; Kukavskaya, E. A.; Bogorodskaya, A. V.; Kovaleva, N. M.

2010-12-01

Wildfire and large-scale forest harvesting are the two major disturbances in the Russian boreal forests. Non-recovered logged sites total about a million hectares in Siberia. Logged sites are characterized by higher fire hazard than forest sites due to the presence of generally untreated logging slash (i.e., available fuel) which dries out much more rapidly compared to understory fuels. Moreover, most logging sites can be easily accessed by local population; this increases the risk for fire ignition. Fire impacts on the overstory trees, subcanopy woody layer, and ground vegetation biomass were estimated on 14 logged and unlogged comparison sites in the Lower Angara Region in 2009-2010 as part of the NASA-funded NEESPI project, The Influence of Changing Forestry Practices on the Effects of Wildfire and on Interactions Between Fire and Changing Climate in Central Siberia. Based on calculated fuel consumption, we estimated carbon emission from fires on both logged and unlogged burned sites. Carbon emission from fires on logged sites appeared to be twice that on unlogged sites. Soil respiration decreased on both site types after fires. This reduction may partially offset fire-produced carbon emissions. Carbon emissions from fire and post-fire ecosystem damage on logged sites are expected to increase under changing climate conditions and as a result of anticipated increases in future forest harvesting in Siberia.

Theory-Based Cartographic Risk Model Development and Application for Home Fire Safety.

PubMed

Furmanek, Stephen; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol

There is a gap in the use of predictive risk models to identify areas at risk for home fires and burn injury. The purpose of this study was to describe the creation, validation, and application of such a model using a sample from an intervention study with parents of newborns in Jefferson County, KY, as an example. Performed was a literature search to identify risk factors for home fires and burn injury in the target population. Obtained from the American Community Survey at the census tract level and synthesized to create a predictive cartographic risk model was risk factor data. Model validation was performed through correlation, regression, and Moran's I with fire incidence data from open records. Independent samples t-tests were used to examine the model in relation to geocoded participant addresses. Participant risk level for fire rate was determined and proximity to fire station service areas and hospitals. The model showed high and severe risk clustering in the northwest section of the county. Strongly correlated with fire rate was modeled risk; the best predictive model for fire risk contained home value (low), race (black), and non high school graduates. Applying the model to the intervention sample, the majority of participants were at lower risk and mostly within service areas closest to a fire department and hospital. Cartographic risk models were useful in identifying areas at risk and analyzing participant risk level. The methods outlined in this study are generalizable to other public health issues.

75 FR 40845 - Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at Structure Fires

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-14

... NIOSH 141-A] Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at Structure Fires AGENCY: National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) of the Centers for... publication entitled ``Preventing Deaths and Injuries of Fire Fighters Using Risk Management Principles at...

Urban fire risk control: House design, upgrading and replanning

PubMed Central

Mbuya, Elinorata Celestine

2018-01-01

Urbanisation leads to house densification, a phenomenon experienced in both planned and unplanned settlements in cities in developing countries. Such densification limits fire brigade access into settlements, thereby aggravating fire disaster risks. In this article, we assess the fire exposure and risks in residences in informal areas of Mchikichini ward, in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania. We rely on interviews of residents and government officials to obtain background on the occurrence and causes of fire accidents, policy provisions and regulations, and experiences with fire outbreaks and coping strategies, as well as on observations and measurements of house transformations, spatial quality and indoor real life. Our findings suggest that fire risks arise from both inappropriate structural characteristics and unsound behavioural practices. This includes unsafe electric practices by residents, poor capacity of residents to fight fires once started, limited access to structures by firefighting equipment because of flouting of planning regulations and inadequate awareness of local government leaders of the magnitude of fire risks. Potential changes to reduce fire risks in the settlement include the installation of firefighting systems, restriction of cooking to designated spaces, use of safer cooking energy sources and lighting means, improvements of vehicle access routes to neighbourhoods, capacity building at the grass root level and the establishment of community-based fire risk management.

Partnership working between the Fire Service and NHS: delivering a cost-saving service to improve the safety of high-risk people.

PubMed

Craig, Joyce A; Creegan, Shelagh; Tait, Martin; Dolan, Donna

2015-04-14

The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service and NHS Tayside piloted partnership working. A Community Fire Safety Link Worker provided Risk Assessments to adults, identified by community health teams, at high risk of fires, with the aim of reducing fires. An existing evaluation shows the Service developed a culture of 'high trust' between partners and had high client satisfaction. This paper reports on an economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role. An economic evaluation of the costs and benefits of the Link Worker role was undertaken. Changes in the Risk Assessment score following delivery of the Service were used to estimate the potential fires avoided. These were valued using a national cost of a fire. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was deducted from these savings. The pilot was estimated to save 4.4 fires, equivalent to £286 per client. The estimated cost of delivering the Service was £55 per client, giving net savings of £231 per client. The pilot was cost-saving under all scenarios, with results sensitive to the probability of a fire. We believe this is the first evaluation of Fire Safety Risk Assessments. Partnership working, delivering joint Risk Assessments in the homes of people at high risk of fire, is modelled to be cost saving. Uncertainties in data and small sample are key limitations. Further research is required into the ex ante risk of fire by risk category. Despite these limitations, potential savings identified in this study supports greater adoption of this partnership initiative.

The analysis of factors of management of safety of critical information infrastructure with use of dynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trostyansky, S. N.; Kalach, A. V.; Lavlinsky, V. V.; Lankin, O. V.

2018-03-01

Based on the analysis of the dynamic model of panel data by region, including fire statistics for surveillance sites and statistics of a set of regional socio-economic indicators, as well as the time of rapid response of the state fire service to fires, the probability of fires in the surveillance sites and the risk of human death in The result of such fires from the values of the corresponding indicators for the previous year, a set of regional social-economics factors, as well as regional indicators time rapid response of the state fire service in the fire. The results obtained are consistent with the results of the application to the fire risks of the model of a rational offender. Estimation of the economic equivalent of human life from data on surveillance objects for Russia, calculated on the basis of the analysis of the presented dynamic model of fire risks, correctly agrees with the known literary data. The results obtained on the basis of the econometric approach to fire risks allow us to forecast fire risks at the supervisory sites in the regions of Russia and to develop management solutions to minimize such risks.

A GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for aiding risk management Pinus pinaster Ait. forests: a case study in Corsican Island, western Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration-Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)-for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management Pinus pinaster Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island, Western Mediterranean Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, Vanina; Oberti, Pascal; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Riffard, Olivier; Panaïotis, Christophe; Cannac, Magali; Ferrat, Lila

2011-07-01

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk ( M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration— Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Economic efficiency and risk character of fire management programs, Northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Thomas J. Mills; Frederick W. Bratten

1988-01-01

Economic efficiency and risk have long been considered during the selection of fire management programs and the design of fire management polices. The risk considerations was largely subjective, however, and efficiency has only recently been calculated for selected portions of the fire management program. The highly stochastic behavior of the fire system and the high...

Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Taylor, Steve W.; Candau, Jean-Noël; Stralberg, Diana; Marshall, Ginny A.; Little, John M.; Flannigan, Mike D.

2017-02-01

In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating ‘spread days’ to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada’s forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.

Fire-induced pine woodland to shrubland transitions in Southern Europe may promote shifts in soil fertility.

PubMed

Mayor, A G; Valdecantos, A; Vallejo, V R; Keizer, J J; Bloem, J; Baeza, J; González-Pelayo, O; Machado, A I; de Ruiter, P C

2016-12-15

Since the mid of the last century, fire recurrence has increased in the Iberian Peninsula and in the overall Mediterranean basin due to changes in land use and climate. The warmer and drier climate projected for this region will further increase the risk of wildfire occurrence and recurrence. Although the impact of wildfires on soil nutrient content in this region has been extensively studied, still few works have assessed this impact on the basis of fire recurrence. This study assesses the changes in soil organic C and nutrient status of mineral soils in two Southern European areas, Várzea (Northern Portugal) and Valencia (Eastern Spain), affected by different levels of fire recurrence and where short fire intervals have promoted a transition from pine woodlands to shrublands. At the short-term (<1year), the amount of soil organic matter was higher in burned than in unburned soils while its quality (represented as labile to total organic matter) was actually lower. In any case, total and labile soil organic matter showed decreasing trends with increasing fire recurrence (one to four fires). At the long-term (>5years), a decline in overall soil fertility with fire recurrence was also observed, with a drop between pine woodlands (one fire) and shrublands (two and three fires), particularly in the soil microsites between shrubs. Our results suggest that the current trend of increasing fire recurrence in Southern Europe may result in losses or alterations of soil organic matter, particularly when fire promotes a transition from pine woodland to shrubland. The results also point to labile organic matter fractions in the intershrub spaces as potential early warning indicators for shifts in soil fertility in response to fire recurrence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of remote sensing and geographical information system in mapping forest fire risk zone at Bhadra wildlife sanctuary, India.

PubMed

Sowmya, S V; Somashekar, R K

2010-11-01

Fire is the most spectacular natural disturbance that affects the forest ecosystem composition and diversity. Fire has a devastating effect on the landscape and its impact is felt at every level of the ecosystem and it is possible to map forest fire risk zone and thereby minimize the frequency of fire. There is a need for supranational approaches that analyze wide scenarios of factors involved and global fire effects. Fires can be monitored and analyzed over large areas in a timely and cost effective manner by using satellite imagery. Also Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used effectively to demarcate the fire risk zone map. Bhadra wildlife Sanctuary located in Kamataka, India was selected for this study. Vegetation, slope, distance from roads, settlements parameters were derived for a study area using topographic maps and field information. The Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS)-based forest fire risk model of the study area appeared to be highly compatible with the actual fire-affected sites. The temporal satellite data from 1989 to2006 have been analyzed to map the burnt areas. These classes were weighted according to their influence on forest fire. Four categories of fire risk regions such as Low, Moderate, High and Very high fire intensity zones were identified. It is predicted that around 10.31% of the area falls undermoderate risk zone.

A Rapidly Prototyped Vegetation Dryness Index Evaluated for Wildfire Risk Assessment at Stennis Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Kenton; Graham, William; Prados, Don; Spruce, Joseph

2007-01-01

MVDI, which effectively involves the differencing of NDMI and NDVI, appears to display increased noise that is consistent with a differencing technique. This effect masks finer variations in vegetation moisture, preventing MVDI from fulfilling the requirement of giving decision makers insight into spatial variation of fire risk. MVDI shows dependencies on land cover and phenology which also argue against its use as a fire risk proxy in an area of diverse and fragmented land covers. The conclusion of the rapid prototyping effort is that MVDI should not be implemented for SSC decision support.

Fire safety design considerations for advanced space vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

The desire to understand and explore space has driven man to overcome the confines of the Earth's atmosphere and accept the challenge of spaceflight. With our increasing ability to travel, work, and explore in space comes a need for a better understanding of the hazards in this relatively new endeavor. One of the most important and immediate needs is to be able to predict the ignition, spread, and growth of fire on board spacecraft. Fire safety aboard spacecraft has always been a concern; however, with the increasing number and duration of proposed missions, it is imperative that the spacecraft be designed with a solid understanding of fire hazards, insuring that all risks have been minimized and extinguishment systems are available.

Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire-climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600-2015 CE.

PubMed

Taylor, Alan H; Trouet, Valerie; Skinner, Carl N; Stephens, Scott

2016-11-29

Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire-climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600-2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring-based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation-following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)-reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire-climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire-climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California.

Hydrocarbon characterization experiments in fully turbulent fires : results and data analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suo-Anttila, Jill Marie; Blanchat, Thomas K.

As the capabilities of numerical simulations increase, decision makers are increasingly relying upon simulations rather than experiments to assess risks across a wide variety of accident scenarios including fires. There are still, however, many aspects of fires that are either not well understood or are difficult to treat from first principles due to the computational expense. For a simulation to be truly predictive and to provide decision makers with information which can be reliably used for risk assessment the remaining physical processes must be studied and suitable models developed for the effects of the physics. The model for the fuelmore » evaporation rate in a liquid fuel pool fire is significant because in well-ventilated fires the evaporation rate largely controls the total heat release rate from the fire. This report describes a set of fuel regression rates experiments to provide data for the development and validation of models. The experiments were performed with fires in the fully turbulent scale range (> 1 m diameter) and with a number of hydrocarbon fuels ranging from lightly sooting to heavily sooting. The importance of spectral absorption in the liquid fuels and the vapor dome above the pool was investigated and the total heat flux to the pool surface was measured. The importance of convection within the liquid fuel was assessed by restricting large scale liquid motion in some tests. These data sets provide a sound, experimentally proven basis for assessing how much of the liquid fuel needs to be modeled to enable a predictive simulation of a fuel fire given the couplings between evaporation of fuel from the pool and the heat release from the fire which drives the evaporation.« less

Vector-borne diseases on Fire Island, New York (Fire Island National Seashore Science Synthesis Paper)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.

2005-01-01

This paper discusses eleven tick-borne and five mosquito-borne pathogens that are known to occur at FIlS, or could potentially occur. The potential for future occurrence, and ecological factors that influence occurrence, are assessed for each disease. Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease on Fire Island. The Lyme spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, is endemic in local tick and wildlife populations. Public education, personal precautions against tick bite, and prompt treatment of early-stage infections can help manage the risk of Lyme disease on Fire Island. The pathogens that cause Human Monocytic Ehrlichiosis and Tularemia have been isolated from ticks or wildlife on Fire Island, and conditions suggest that other tickborne diseases (including Babesiosis, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, and Human Granulocytic Ehrlichiosis) might also occur, but these are far less common than Lyme disease, if present. West Nile Virus (WNV) is the primary mosquito- borne human pathogen that is known to occur on Fire Island. Ecological conditions and recent epizootiological events suggest that WNV occurs in foci that can shift from year to year. Therefore, a surveillance program with appropriate responses to increasing epizootic activity can help manage the risk of WNV transmission on Fire Island.

A review of rapid and field-portable analytical techniques for the diagnosis of cyanide exposure.

PubMed

Jackson, Randy; Logue, Brian A

2017-04-01

Although commonly known as a highly toxic chemical, cyanide is also an essential reagent for many industrial processes in areas such as mining, electroplating and synthetic fiber production. The "heavy" use of cyanide in these industries, along with its necessary transportation, increases the possibility of human exposure. Another relatively common, but consistently overlooked, mode of cyanide exposure is inhalation of fire smoke. Both civilians and fire rescue personnel risk exposure during the unfortunate event of a structure fire. Additionally, fire rescue personnel risk long-term effects of habitual exposure throughout their careers in fire rescue. The relatively rapid onset of cyanide toxicity and the fact that cyanide exposure symptoms mimic other medical conditions necessitate a rapid, sensitive, portable, and accurate method for the diagnosis of cyanide exposure. This review focuses on the important issues concerning accurate point-of-care diagnosis of cyanide exposure and cyanide detection technologies that may allow a commercial cyanide exposure diagnostic to become a reality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Livestock grazing impact on soil wettability and erosion risk in post-fire agricultural lands.

PubMed

Stavi, Ilan; Barkai, Daniel; Knoll, Yaakov M; Zaady, Eli

2016-12-15

Fires in agricultural areas are common, modifying the functioning of agro-ecosystems. Such fires have been extensively studied, and reported to considerably affect soil properties. Yet, understanding of the impact of livestock grazing, or more precisely, trampling, in fire-affected lands is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of low- to moderate-fire severity and livestock trampling (hoof action) on the solid soil's wettability and related properties, and on soil detachment, in burnt vs. non-burnt croplands. The study was implemented by allowing livestock to access plots under high, medium, and low stocking rates in (unintentionally) burnt and non-burnt lands. Also, livestock exclusion plots were assigned as a control treatment. Results showed that fire slightly decreased the soil wettability. At the same time, water drop penetration time (WDPT) was negatively related to the stocking rate, and critical surface tension (CST) was ~13% smaller in the control plots than in the livestock-presence treatments. Also, the results showed that following burning, the resistance of soil to shear decreased by ~70%. Mass of detached material was similar in the control plots of the burnt and non-burnt plots. At the same time, it was three-, eight-, and nine-fold greater in the plots of the burnt×low, burnt×medium, and burnt×high stocking rates, respectively, than in the corresponding non-burnt ones. This study shows that livestock trampling in low- to moderate-intensity fire-affected lands increased the shearing of the ground surface layer. On the one hand, this slightly increased soil wettability. On the other hand, this impact considerably increased risks of soil erosion and land degradation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Benefits of treating old-growth stands

Treesearch

Mick Harrington

2007-01-01

Old-growth ponderosa pine and western larch forests that developed as a result of frequent, low-intensity fires were once extensive in the Inland West, but now are rare due to historical logging and, more recently, severe wildfires. In response to missing several natural fire cycles, remaining stands of old trees are at increasingly greater risk from...

Relationship between Climate Variability, Wildfire Risk, and Wildfire Occurrence in Wildland-Urban Interface of the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Jia, S.; Nghiem, S. V.

2017-12-01

As housing units in or near wildlands have grown, the wildland-urban interface (WUI) contain at present approximately one-third of all housing in the contiguous US. Wildfires are a part of the natural cycle in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) but the increasing trend of WUI has made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. The expansion of WUI has elevated wildfire risks by increasing the chance of human caused ignitions and past fire suppression in the area. Previous studies on climate variability have shown that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts and has suffered from severe wildfires in the recent decade. Therefore, assessing the increased vulnerability to the wildfire in WUI is crucial for proactive adaptation under climate change. Our previous study has shown that a strong correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperature was found during March-June in the SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry spring conditions, combined with suppression of winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and high fire risk throughout the summer and fall. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the connections between climate variability and wildfire danger characteristics. This study aims to identify climate variability using multiple climate indices such as NAO, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation closely related with droughts in the SWUS region. Correlation between the variability and fire frequency and severity in WUI were examined. Also, we investigated climate variability and its relationship on local wildfire potential using both Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and Fire Weather Index (FWI) which have been used to assessing wildfire potential in the U.S.A and Canada, respectively. We examined the long-term variability of the fire potential indices and relationships between the indices and historical occurrence in WUI using multi-decadal reanalysis data sets. Following our analysis, we investigated joint impacts of multiple climate indices on droughts and human activities in the WUI for regional wildfire potential.

Real time forest fire warning and forest fire risk zoning: a Vietnamese case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, T.; Pham, D.; Phung, T.; Ha, A.; Paschke, M.

2016-12-01

Forest fire occurs seriously in Vietnam and has been considered as one of the major causes of forest lost and degradation. Several studies of forest fire risk warning were conducted using Modified Nesterov Index (MNI) but remaining shortcomings and inaccurate predictions that needs to be urgently improved. In our study, several important topographic and social factors such as aspect, slope, elevation, distance to residential areas and road system were considered as "permanent" factors while meteorological data were updated hourly using near-real-time (NRT) remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS Terra/Aqua and TRMM) for the prediction and warning of fire. Due to the limited number of weather stations in Vietnam, data from all active stations (i.e. 178) were used with the satellite data to calibrate and upscale meteorological variables. These data with finer resolution were then used to generate MNI. The only significant "permanent" factors were selected as input variables based on the correlation coefficients that computed from multi-variable regression among true fire-burning (collected from 1/2007) and its spatial characteristics. These coefficients also used to suggest appropriate weight for computing forest fire risk (FR) model. Forest fire risk model was calculated from the MNI and the selected factors using fuzzy regression models (FRMs) and GIS based multi-criteria analysis. By this approach, the FR was slightly modified from MNI by the integrated use of various factors in our fire warning and prediction model. Multifactor-based maps of forest fire risk zone were generated from classifying FR into three potential danger levels. Fire risk maps were displayed using webgis technology that is easy for managing data and extracting reports. Reported fire-burnings thereafter have been used as true values for validating the forest fire risk. Fire probability has strong relationship with potential danger levels (varied from 5.3% to 53.8%) indicating that the higher potential risk, the more chance of fire happen. By adding spatial factors to continuous daily updated remote sensing based meteo-data, results are valuable for both mapping forest fire risk zones in short and long-term and real time fire warning in Vietnam. Key words: Near-real-time, forest fire warning, fuzzy regression model, remote sensing.

Joint modeling of human dwellings and the natural ecosystem at the wildland-urban interface helps mitigation of forest-fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, M.; Spyratos, V.; Bourgeron, P. S.

2007-12-01

The late summer of 2007 has seen again a large number of catastrophic forest fires in the Western United States and Southern Europe. These fires arose in or spread to human habitats at the so-called wildland-urban interface (WUI). Within the conterminous United States alone, the WUI occupies just under 10 percent of the surface and contains almost 40 percent of all housing units. Recent dry spells associated with climate variability and climate change make the impact of such catastrophic fires a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists and the general public. In order to explore the qualitative influence of the presence of houses on fire spread, we considered only uniform landscapes and fire spread as a simple percolation process, with given house densities d and vegetation flammabilities p. Wind, topography, fuel heterogeneities, firebrands and weather affect actual fire spread. The present theoretical results would therefore, need to be integrated into more detailed fire models before practical, quantitative applications of the present results. Our simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, shows that fire-size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density d and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability p and house density d. The sharpness of this transition is related to the critical thresholds that arise in percolation theory for an infinite domain; it is their translation into our model's finite-area domain, which is a more realistic representation of actual fire landscapes. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition zone. Hence, and despite having neglected additional complexities, our idealized model's results indicate that more detailed models used for assessing fire risk in the WUI should integrate the density and flammability of houses in these areas. Furthermore, our results imply that fire proofing houses and their immediate surroundings within the WUI would not only reduce the houses' flammability and increase the security of the inhabitants, but also reduce fire risk for the entire landscape.

Human influence on California fire regimes.

PubMed

Syphard, Alexandra D; Radeloff, Volker C; Keeley, Jon E; Hawbaker, Todd J; Clayton, Murray K; Stewart, Susan I; Hammer, Roger B

2007-07-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation.

Human influence on California fire regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, A.D.; Radeloff, V.C.; Keeley, J.E.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Clayton, M.K.; Stewart, S.I.; Hammer, R.B.

2007-01-01

Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the spatial arrangement of ignitions and fuels on the landscape, in addition to nonlinear relationships, will be important to fire managers and conservation planners because fire risk may be related to specific levels of housing density that can be accounted for in land use planning. With more fires occurring in close proximity to human infrastructure, there may also be devastating ecological impacts if development continues to grow farther into wildland vegetation. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Forest fires in Italy: An econometric analysis of major driving factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michetti, Melania; Pinar, Mehmet

2013-04-01

Despite the relevant fire risk to which Italy is subject from north to south, very few analysis focus on this area. This article investigates the causes of forest fires frequency and intensity in Italy during the first decade of the XXI century. The dynamical aspects of fire danger are explored through the use of panel data techniques which fully capture the impacts on forest fires of changes in both socio-economic and climatic conditions. Italy is treated as a unique region in a first model specification, while it is then split into 3 geographical areas (north, centre, and south) to capture locally specific aspects. Two different dependent variables are alternatively employed and a number of ad hoc tests are performed to corroborate the robustness of our estimates. Results highlight the importance of considering the fire situation separately for the northern, central, and southern parts of Italy. While the presence of railway networks positively affects fire risk, the impact of livestock depends on its specific composition. Favourable effects in fire reduction are represented by the increase in education levels (north and centre) and touristic flows (north and south), and by the containment of illegal activities (south). Weather patterns appear to be important determinants all over the Italian peninsula.

In the line of fire: the peatlands of Southeast Asia

PubMed Central

Hooijer, A.

2016-01-01

Peatlands are a significant component of the global carbon (C) cycle, yet despite their role as a long-term C sink throughout the Holocene, they are increasingly vulnerable to destabilization. Nowhere is this shift from sink to source happening more rapidly than in Southeast Asia, and nowhere else are the combined pressures of land-use change and fire on peatland ecosystem C dynamics more evident nor the consequences more apparent. This review focuses on the peatlands of this region, tracing the link between deforestation and drainage and accelerating C emissions arising from peat mineralization and fire. It focuses on the implications of the recent increase in fire occurrence for air quality, human health, ecosystem resilience and the global C cycle. The scale and controls on peat-driven C emissions are addressed, noting that although fires cause large, temporary peaks in C flux to the atmosphere, year-round emissions from peat mineralization are of a similar magnitude. The review concludes by advocating land management options to reduce future fire risk as part of wider peatland management strategies, while also proposing that this region's peat fire dynamic could become increasingly relevant to northern peatlands in a warming world. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216508

Review of methods for developing probabilistic risk assessments

Treesearch

D. A. Weinstein; P.B. Woodbury

2010-01-01

We describe methodologies currently in use or those under development containing features for estimating fire occurrence risk assessment. We describe two major categories of fire risk assessment tools: those that predict fire under current conditions, assuming that vegetation, climate, and the interactions between them and fire remain relatively similar to their...

An approach to the real time risk evaluation system of boreal forest fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakau, K.; Fukuda, M.; Kimura, K.; Hayasaka, H.; Tani, H.; Kushida, K.

2005-12-01

Huge boreal forest fire may cause massive impacts not only on global warming gas emission but also local communities. Thus, it is important to control forest fire. We collected data about boreal forest fire as satellite imagery and fire observation simultaneously in Alaska and east Siberia in summer fire seasons for these three years. Fire observation data was collected from aircraft flying between Japan and Europe. Fire detection results were compared with observed data to evaluate the accuracy and earliness of automatic detection. NOAA and MODIS satellite images covering Alaska and East Siberia are collected. We are also developing fire expansion simulation model to forecast the possible fire expansion area. On the basis of fire expansion forecast, risk analysis of possible fire expansion for decision aid of fire-fighting activities will be analyzed. To identify the risk of boreal forest fire and public concern about forest fire, we collected local news paper in Fairbanks, AK and discuss the statistics of articles related to forest fire on the newspaper.

The way to a healthy future for National Forest ecosystems in the West : what role can silviculture and prescribed fire play?

Treesearch

Douglas W. MacCleery

1995-01-01

The 1994 wildfires in the U.S. West have highlighted a problem of forest health and fuel buildups that has been increasing for decades. In many Western forest ecosystems, forest biomass per acre has risen substantially since the 1940s and many forests have dense, fire-prone understories. If current trends continue, there will be: 1) increasing risks to National Forest...

Adapting to the reality of climate change at Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.

2007-01-01

Ecosystem modeling of possible future changes in the GNP mountain environments suggest that increased tree growth rates and evapotranspiration will reduce soil moisture and streamflow. The drier forests, with more wood, will burn more frequently and with greater severity, leading to degra- dation in air quality and increased risk to people and infrastructure. Management of forest fires is an important issue in the arid western United States. In 2003, 13% of GNP’s 4,082 km 2 was burned in three large fires and numerous smaller fires. Managers can accomplish some of their goals, such as preserving threatened wildlife populations, by altering their management of fires. In 2003, intense efforts were successfully made to divert the fires away from valuable grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) habitat that contained huckleberry plants ( Vaccinium spp .) necessary to ensure bear survival through the winter.

Domains of Risk in the Developmental Continuity of Fire Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarty, Carolyn A.; McMahon, Robert J.

2005-01-01

Juvenile fire setting is a serious, dangerous, and costly behavior. The majority of research examining youth fire setting has been cross-sectional. We sought to examine early risk attributes that could differentiate fire setters from non-fire setters, in addition to examining their association with the developmental continuity of fire-setting…

Integrated system of occupational safety and health and fire protection of the fire rescue brigades members.

PubMed

Božović, Marijola; Živković, Snežana; Mihajlović, Emina

2018-06-01

The objective of the conducted research is the identification and determination of requirements of members of fire rescue brigades during operations in the conditions of high risk in order to minimize the possibilities for injury incidence during the intervention. The research is focused on examination, determination and identification of factors affecting the increasing number of occupational injuries of members of fire rescue brigades during interventions. Hypothetical framework of the research problem consists of general hypothesis and six special hypotheses. Results suggest that almost all respondents believe that their skills and abilities are applicable in the intervention phase, but less than a half believe that their skills are applicable in prevention phase. Two-thirds of respondents stated that in their organization they have support for further education and upgrading while a half of respondents stated that they need education concerning identification, assessment and management of risks that can lead to emergency situations.

Surgical fires, a clear and present danger.

PubMed

Yardley, I E; Donaldson, L J

2010-04-01

A surgical fire is potentially devastating for a patient. Fire has been recognised as a potential complication of surgery for many years. Surgical fires continue to happen with alarming frequency. We present a review of the literature and an examination of possible solutions to this problem. The PubMed and Medline databases from 1948 onwards were searched using the subject headings "operating rooms", "fire", "safety" and "safety management". "Surgical fire" was also searched as a keyword. Relevant references from articles were obtained. Fire occurs when the three elements of the fire triad, fuel, oxidiser and ignition coincide. Surgical fires are unusual in the absence of an oxygen-enriched atmosphere. The ignition source is most commonly diathermy but lasers carry a relatively greater risk. The majority of fires occur during head and neck surgery. This is due to the presence of oxygen and the extensive use of lasers. The risk of fire can be reduced with an awareness of the risk and good communication. Surgery will always carry a risk of fire. Reducing this risk requires a concerted effort from all team members. Copyright 2010 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investing in rangeland restoration in the Arid West, USA: countering the effects of an invasive weed on the long-term fire cycle.

PubMed

Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca; Englin, Jeffrey; Nalle, Darek

2009-01-01

In large areas of the arid western United States, much of which are federally managed, fire frequencies and associated management costs are escalating as flammable, invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) increases its stronghold. Cheatgrass invasion and the subsequent increase in fire frequency result in the loss of native vegetation, less predictable forage availability for livestock and wildlife, and increased costs and risk associated with firefighting. Revegetation following fire on land that is partially invaded by cheatgrass can reduce both the dominance of cheatgrass and its associated high fire rate. Thus restoration can be viewed as an investment in fire-prevention and, if native seed is used, an investment in maintaining native vegetation on the landscape. Here we develop and employ a Markov model of vegetation dynamics for the sagebrush steppe ecosystem to predict vegetation change and management costs under different intensities and types of post-fire revegetation. We use the results to estimate the minimum total cost curves for maintaining native vegetation on the landscape and for preventing cheatgrass dominance. Our results show that across a variety of model parameter possibilities, increased investment in post-fire revegetation reduces long-term fire management costs by more than enough to offset the costs of revegetation. These results support that a policy of intensive post-fire revegetation will reduce long-term management costs for this ecosystem, in addition to providing environmental benefits. This information may help justify costs associated with revegetation and raise the priority of restoration in federal land budgets.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-12-20

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Redirecting fire-prone Mediterranean ecosystems toward more resilient and less flammable communities.

PubMed

Santana, Victor M; Baeza, M Jaime; Valdecantos, Alejandro; Vallejo, V Ramón

2018-06-01

The extensive abandonment of agricultural lands in the Mediterranean basin has led to large landscapes being dominated by early-successional species, characterized by high flammability and an increasing fire risk. This fact promotes fire occurrence and places ecosystems in a state of arrested succession. In this work, we assessed the effectiveness of several restoration actions in redirecting these ecosystems toward more resilient communities dominated by resprouting species. These actions included the mechanical clearing of early-successional species, the plantation of resprouting species, and the combination of both treatments. For 13 years, we assessed shifts in the successional trajectory and ecosystem flammability by changes in: species composition, species richness, ecosystem evenness, the natural colonization of resprouting species, total biomass and proportion of dead biomass. We observed that the plantation and clearing combination was a suitable strategy to promote resilience. Species richness increased as well as the presence of the resprouting species introduced by planting. The natural colonization of the resprouting species was also enhanced. These changes in the successional trajectory were accompanied by a possible reduction of fire risk by reducing dead fuel proportion. These findings are relevant for the management of Mediterranean basin areas, but also suggest new tools for redirecting systems in fire-prone areas worldwide. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: Does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturtevant, Brian R.; Miranda, Brian R.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Gustafson, Eric J.; Wolter, Peter T.

2012-01-01

Insect disturbance is often thought to increase fire risk through enhanced fuel loadings, particularly in coniferous forest ecosystems. Yet insect disturbances also affect successional pathways and landscape structure that interact with fire disturbances (and vice-versa) over longer time scales. We applied a landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate the relative strength of interactions between spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) outbreaks and fire disturbances in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area (BWCA) in northern Minnesota (USA). Disturbance interactions were evaluated for two different scenarios: presettlement forests and fire regimes vs. contemporary forests and fire regimes. Forest composition under the contemporary scenario trended toward mixtures of deciduous species (primarily Betula papyrifera and Populus spp.) and shade-tolerant conifers (Picea mariana, Abies balsamea, Thuja occidentalis), with disturbances dominated by a combination of budworm defoliation and high-severity fires. The presettlement scenario retained comparatively more “big pines” (i.e., Pinus strobus, P. resinosa) and tamarack (L. laricina), and experienced less budworm disturbance and a comparatively less-severe fire regime. Spruce budworm disturbance decreased area burned and fire severity under both scenarios when averaged across the entire 300-year simulations. Contrary to past research, area burned and fire severity during outbreak decades were each similar to that observed in non-outbreak decades. Our analyses suggest budworm disturbances within forests of the BWCA have a comparatively weak effect on long-term forest composition due to a combination of characteristics. These include strict host specificity, fine-scaled patchiness created by defoliation damage, and advance regeneration of its primary host, balsam fir (A. balsamea) that allows its host to persist despite repeated disturbances. Understanding the nature of the three-way interaction between budworm, fire, and composition has important ramifications for both fire mitigation strategies and ecosystem restoration initiatives. We conclude that budworm disturbance can partially mitigate long-term future fire risk by periodically reducing live ladder fuel within the mixed forest types of the BWCA but will do little to reverse the compositional trends caused in part by reduced fire rotations.

Climate Change and Mountain Community Fire Management in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

All, J.; Medler, M.; Cole, R. J.; Arques, S.; Schmitt, C. G.

2014-12-01

In the central Andes of Peru, climate change is altering fire risk through changes in local meteorology and fuel loading. Greater moisture and favorable growing conditions are increasing vegetative productivity, which in turn increases fuel loads. This process is accentuated during El Nino events and potentially results in increased fire occurrence and frequency during relatively dry La Nina events. Park officials are concerned about the ramification of the changes on local ecology and tourist use of the resources. However, using a time-series of two different products from the MODIS Terra and Aqua platforms (Active Fire and Burned Area), TRMM 3B43 precipitation data, and Multivariate ENSO Index data we document fire occurrence and extent from 2000 to 2010 and our analysis indicates that fires are burning exclusively during winter months when there are no natural ignition sources. Globally, fire is used in conjunction with grazing to improve the regeneration and yield of grasses. During our interviews, locals claimed to only set fires in the buffer zone outside of the park, but our analysis indicates that the buffer zone rarely burns and that most fires begin within the park and only occasionally move into the buffer zones. Additionally, we determined that although this is small-scale fire activity every year, overall fire is having a very minor effect on local systems. The park service must develop programs to work with local grazing stakeholders to better limit the impacts of fire, while also address the negative perceptions from tourists in the future. In this instance, fire perception and fire reality are not the same and the challenge for resource managers is how to reconcile these two factors in order to more effectively manage the parklands.

Sleep Quantity and Quality of Ontario Wildland Firefighters Across a Low-Hazard Fire Season

PubMed Central

McGillis, Zachary; Dorman, Sandra C.; Robertson, Ayden; Larivière, Michel; Leduc, Caleb; Eger, Tammy; Oddson, Bruce E.; Larivière, Céline

2017-01-01

Objective: The aim of the study was to assess the sleep quality, quantity, and fatigue levels of Canadian wildland firefighters while on deployment. Methods: Objective and subjective sleep and fatigue measures were collected using actigraphy and questionnaires during non-fire (Base) and fire (Initial Attack and Project) deployments. Results: Suboptimal sleep quality and quantity were more frequently observed during high-intensity, Initial Attack fire deployments. Suboptimal sleep was also exhibited during non-fire (Base) work periods, which increases the risk of prefire deployment sleep debt. Self-reported, morning fatigue scores were low-to-moderate and highest for Initial Attack fire deployments. Conclusions: The study highlights the incidence of suboptimal sleep patterns in wildland firefighters during non-fire and fire suppression work periods. These results have implications for the health and safety practices of firefighters given the link between sleep and fatigue, in a characteristically hazardous occupation. PMID:29216017

Quantity, composition and water contamination potential of ash produced under different wildfire severities.

PubMed

Santín, Cristina; Doerr, Stefan H; Otero, Xosé L; Chafer, Chris J

2015-10-01

Wildfires frequently threaten water quality through the transfer of eroded ash and soil into rivers and reservoirs. The ability to anticipate risks for water resources from wildfires is fundamental for implementing effective fire preparedness plans and post-fire mitigation measures. Here we present a new approach that allows quantifying the amount and characteristics of ash generated under different wildfire severities and its respective water contamination potential. This approach is applied to a wildfire in an Australian dry sclerophyll eucalypt forest, but can be adapted for use in other environments. The Balmoral fire of October 2013 affected 12,694 ha of Sydney's forested water supply catchment. It produced substantial ash loads that increased with fire severity, with 6, 16 and 34 Mg ha(-1) found in areas affected by low, high and extreme fire severity, respectively. Ash bulk density was also positively related to fire severity. The increase with fire severity in the total load and bulk density of the ash generated is mainly attributed to a combination of associated increases in (i) total amount of fuel affected by fire and (ii) contribution of charred mineral soil to the ash layer. Total concentrations of pollutants and nutrients in ash were mostly unrelated to fire severity and relatively low compared to values reported for wildfire ash in other environments (e.g. 4.0-7.3mg As kg(-1); 2.3-4.1 B mg kg(-1); 136-154 P mg kg(-1)). Solubility of the elements analysed was also low, less than 10% of the total concentration for all elements except for B (6-14%) and Na (30-50%). This could be related to a partial loss of soluble components by leaching and/or wind erosion before the ash sampling (10 weeks after the fire and before major ash mobilisation by water erosion). Even with their relatively low concentrations of potential pollutants, the substantial total ash loads found here represent a water contamination risk if transported into the hydrological network during severe erosion events. For example, up to 4 Mg of ash-derived P could be delivered into a single water supply reservoir. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Range expansion of invasive shrubs: implication for crown fire risk in forestlands of the southern USA.

PubMed

Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Wonkka, Carissa L; Grant, William E; Rogers, William E

2016-01-01

Non-native plant invasions and changing management activities have dramatically altered the structure and composition of forests worldwide. Invasive shrubs and fire suppression have led to increased densification and biomass accumulation in forest ecosystems of the southeastern USA. Notably, Chinese and European privets are rapid growing, shade-tolerant shrubs which number among the most aggressive invasive species in these forests. Privet encroachment has caused losses of native diversity, alteration of ecosystem processes and changes in community structure. The latter has become manifest through decreases in fine herbaceous fuels concurrent with increases in coarse woody fuels in forest understoreys. These alterations in fuel structure will potentially lead to less frequent, but more severe forest fires, which threaten important forest resources during extreme weather conditions. Drawing on extensive data sets compiled by the US Forest Service, we integrated statistical forecasting and analytical techniques within a spatially explicit, agent-based, simulation framework to predict potential range expansion of Chinese and European privet (Ligustrum sinenseandL. vulgare) and the associated increase in crown fire risk over the next two decades in forestlands of Mississippi and Alabama. Our results indicate that probability of invasion is positively associated with elevation, adjacency (within 300 m) to water bodies, mean daily maximum temperature, site productivity and private land ownership, and is negatively associated with slope, stand age, artificial regeneration, distance to the nearest road and fire disturbance. Our projections suggest the total area invaded will increase from 1.36 to ≈31.39% of all forestlands in Mississippi and Alabama (≈7 million hectares) and the annual frequency of crown fires in these forestlands will approximately double within the next two decades. Such time series projections of annual range expansions and crown fire frequency should provide land managers and restoration practitioners with an invasion chronology upon which to base proactive management plans. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Range expansion of invasive shrubs: implication for crown fire risk in forestlands of the southern USA

PubMed Central

Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Grant, William E.; Rogers, William E.

2016-01-01

Non-native plant invasions and changing management activities have dramatically altered the structure and composition of forests worldwide. Invasive shrubs and fire suppression have led to increased densification and biomass accumulation in forest ecosystems of the southeastern USA. Notably, Chinese and European privets are rapid growing, shade-tolerant shrubs which number among the most aggressive invasive species in these forests. Privet encroachment has caused losses of native diversity, alteration of ecosystem processes and changes in community structure. The latter has become manifest through decreases in fine herbaceous fuels concurrent with increases in coarse woody fuels in forest understoreys. These alterations in fuel structure will potentially lead to less frequent, but more severe forest fires, which threaten important forest resources during extreme weather conditions. Drawing on extensive data sets compiled by the US Forest Service, we integrated statistical forecasting and analytical techniques within a spatially explicit, agent-based, simulation framework to predict potential range expansion of Chinese and European privet (Ligustrum sinense and L. vulgare) and the associated increase in crown fire risk over the next two decades in forestlands of Mississippi and Alabama. Our results indicate that probability of invasion is positively associated with elevation, adjacency (within 300 m) to water bodies, mean daily maximum temperature, site productivity and private land ownership, and is negatively associated with slope, stand age, artificial regeneration, distance to the nearest road and fire disturbance. Our projections suggest the total area invaded will increase from 1.36 to ≈31.39% of all forestlands in Mississippi and Alabama (≈7 million hectares) and the annual frequency of crown fires in these forestlands will approximately double within the next two decades. Such time series projections of annual range expansions and crown fire frequency should provide land managers and restoration practitioners with an invasion chronology upon which to base proactive management plans. PMID:26903488

PREDICTING RISKS OF UNCHARACTERISTIC WILDFIRES: APPLICATION OF THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Forest Service is struggling with a legacy of over 100 years of fire suppression on the country's national forest lands and an increasing occurrence of uncharacteristically large, intense wildfires. This paper reviews the risk assessment process and describes how it can...

Risk in fire management decisionmaking: techniques and criteria

Treesearch

Gail Blatternberger; William F. Hyde; Thomas J. Mills

1984-01-01

In the past, decisionmaking in wildland fire management generally has not included a full consideration of the risk and uncertainty that is inherent in evaluating alternatives. Fire management policies in some Federal land management agencies now require risk evaluation. The model for estimating the economic efficiency of fire program alternatives is the minimization...

The Science of Firescapes: Achieving Fire-Resilient Communities.

PubMed

Smith, Alistair M S; Kolden, Crystal A; Paveglio, Travis B; Cochrane, Mark A; Bowman, David Mjs; Moritz, Max A; Kliskey, Andrew D; Alessa, Lilian; Hudak, Andrew T; Hoffman, Chad M; Lutz, James A; Queen, Lloyd P; Goetz, Scott J; Higuera, Philip E; Boschetti, Luigi; Flannigan, Mike; Yedinak, Kara M; Watts, Adam C; Strand, Eva K; van Wagtendonk, Jan W; Anderson, John W; Stocks, Brian J; Abatzoglou, John T

2016-02-01

Wildland fire management has reached a crossroads. Current perspectives are not capable of answering interdisciplinary adaptation and mitigation challenges posed by increases in wildfire risk to human populations and the need to reintegrate fire as a vital landscape process. Fire science has been, and continues to be, performed in isolated "silos," including institutions (e.g., agencies versus universities), organizational structures (e.g., federal agency mandates versus local and state procedures for responding to fire), and research foci (e.g., physical science, natural science, and social science). These silos tend to promote research, management, and policy that focus only on targeted aspects of the "wicked" wildfire problem. In this article, we provide guiding principles to bridge diverse fire science efforts to advance an integrated agenda of wildfire research that can help overcome disciplinary silos and provide insight on how to build fire-resilient communities.

Long-term temporal changes in the occurrence of a high forest fire danger in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mäkelä, H. M.; Laapas, M.; Venäläinen, A.

2012-08-01

Climate variation and change influence several ecosystem components including forest fires. To examine long-term temporal variations of forest fire danger, a fire danger day (FDD) model was developed. Using mean temperature and total precipitation of the Finnish wildfire season (June-August), the model describes the climatological preconditions of fire occurrence and gives the number of fire danger days during the same time period. The performance of the model varied between different regions in Finland being best in south and west. In the study period 1908-2011, the year-to-year variation of FDD was large and no significant increasing or decreasing tendencies could be found. Negative slopes of linear regression lines for FDD could be explained by the simultaneous, mostly not significant increases in precipitation. Years with the largest wildfires did not stand out from the FDD time series. This indicates that intra-seasonal variations of FDD enable occurrence of large-scale fires, despite the whole season's fire danger is on an average level. Based on available monthly climate data, it is possible to estimate the general fire conditions of a summer. However, more detailed input data about weather conditions, land use, prevailing forestry conventions and socio-economical factors would be needed to gain more specific information about a season's fire risk.

Pediatric fire deaths in Ontario: retrospective study of behavioural, social, and environmental risk factors.

PubMed

Chen, Yingming Amy; Bridgman-Acker, Karen; Edwards, Jim; Lauwers, Albert Edward

2011-05-01

To identify the predictors of residential fire deaths in the Ontario pediatric population using systematically collected data from the Office of the Chief Coroner. Retrospective cohort study. Ontario. Children younger than 16 years of age who died in accidental residential fires in Ontario between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2006. The study retrospectively reviewed the coroner's case files for 60 subjects who qualified according to the selection criteria. Reviewed documents included the coroner's investigation statements, autopsy reports, toxicology reports, fire marshal's reports, police reports, and Children's Aid Society (CAS) reports. Information on a range of demographic, behavioural, social, and environmental factors was collected. Statistical tests, including relative risk, relative risk confidence intervals, and χ(2) tests were performed to determine the correlation between factors of interest and to establish their significance. Thirty-nine fire events resulting in 60 deaths occurred between 2001 and 2006. Fire play and electrical failures were the top 2 causes of residential fires. More fires occurred during the night (midnight to 9 AM) than during the day (9 AM to midnight). Nighttime fires were most commonly due to electrical failures or unattended candles, whereas daytime fires were primarily caused by unsupervised fire play and stove fires. Smoke alarms were present at 32 of 39 fire events (82%), but overall alarm functionality was only 54%. Children from families with a history of CAS involvement were approximately 32 times more likely to die in fires. Risk factors for pediatric fire death in Ontario include smoke alarm functionality, fire play, fire escape behaviour, and CAS involvement. Efforts to prevent residential fire deaths should target these populations and risk factors, and primary care physicians should consider education around these issues as a primary preventive strategy for families with young children.

Fanning the flames: climate change stacks odds against fire suppression.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2005-01-01

There is little question that global warming would increase the risk of wildfires by drying out vegetation and stirring the winds that spread fire. Until recently, however, land managers were unable to formulate appropriate responses because the spatial scales of predictions were far too coarse. Current research being done at the PNW Research Station in Portland,...

Back to Basics: Preventing Surgical Fires.

PubMed

Spruce, Lisa

2016-09-01

When fires occur in the OR, they are devastating and potentially fatal to both patients and health care workers. Fires can be prevented by understanding the fire triangle and methods of reducing fire risk, conducting fire risk assessments, and knowing how to respond if a fire occurs. This Back to Basics article addresses the basics of fire prevention and the steps that can be taken to prevent fires from occurring. Copyright © 2016 AORN, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling.

PubMed

Eastaugh, C S; Hasenauer, H

2014-05-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's 'soil water' and 'labile litter carbon' variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness.

Deriving forest fire ignition risk with biogeochemical process modelling☆

PubMed Central

Eastaugh, C.S.; Hasenauer, H.

2014-01-01

Climate impacts the growth of trees and also affects disturbance regimes such as wildfire frequency. The European Alps have warmed considerably over the past half-century, but incomplete records make it difficult to definitively link alpine wildfire to climate change. Complicating this is the influence of forest composition and fuel loading on fire ignition risk, which is not considered by purely meteorological risk indices. Biogeochemical forest growth models track several variables that may be used as proxies for fire ignition risk. This study assesses the usefulness of the ecophysiological model BIOME-BGC's ‘soil water’ and ‘labile litter carbon’ variables in predicting fire ignition. A brief application case examines historic fire occurrence trends over pre-defined regions of Austria from 1960 to 2008. Results show that summer fire ignition risk is largely a function of low soil moisture, while winter fire ignitions are linked to the mass of volatile litter and atmospheric dryness. PMID:26109905

WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

2016-04-01

Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The year 2010 was characterized by the smallest number of wildfires and burnt area whereas 2012 - by the biggest number of fires and the largest area of conflagration. The data about time, localization, scale and causes of individual wildfire occurrence in given years are taken from the National Forest Fire Information System (KSIPL), administered by Forest Fire Protection Department of Polish Forest Research Institute. The database is a part of European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Basing on this data and on the WRF-based fire risk modelling we intend to achieve the second goal of the study, which is the evaluation of the forecasted fire risk with an occurrence of wildfires. Special attention is paid here to the number, time and the spatial distribution of wildfires occurred in cases of low-level predicted fire risk. Results obtained reveals the effectiveness of the new forecasting method. The outcome of our investigation allows to draw a conclusion that some adjustments are possible to improve the efficiency on the fire-risk estimation method.

Post-fire Water Quality in the Western United States: Understanding and Predicting Short and Long-term Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogue, T. S.; Rust, A.

2016-12-01

Fire frequency is increasing across mid-elevation forests, especially in the Northern Rockies, Sierra Nevada, southern Cascades, as well as the coastal ranges in California and southern Oregon. Numerous studies have noted increased discharge, floods and debris flows after wildfire. More recent work also shows increased water yield during dry seasons for up to ten years post-fire. However, few studies have evaluated long-term water quality response in fire-impacted watersheds. The current presentation will overview recent development of an extensive database on post-fire water quality response across the western U.S. A range of water quality parameters were gathered from 271 burned watersheds through local, state and federal agencies. Short and long-term response was evaluated for watersheds with at least 5 years of pre-fire data. Over 30 watersheds showed significant increases in NO3-, NO2-, NH3, and total nitrogen loading in the initial five years after fire and remained elevated ten years after fire. The burn severity influenced the degree of nitrogen response, where more severely burned watersheds showed higher nitrogen loading than less severely burned watersheds. Dissolved and total phosphorous showed significant increases in 32 watersheds for the first five years after fire. Dissolved ions such as calcium, magnesium, and chloride were also exported from over 32 watersheds, primarily during the first five years after fire, with the majority of impacted watersheds returning to pre-fire water quality conditions after ten years. Ongoing work includes evaluating key determinants that drive short and long-term response and developing predictive models for post-fire water quality. Watersheds impacted by wildfire are known to pose significant risks for downstream communities. Understanding short and long-term water quality change that can impact regional water supplies is critical for establishing potential treatment priorities and alternative source planning.

Forest Management Shifts in the Western US and Potential Impacts on the Carbon Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.; Jones, M. O.; Yang, Z.; Berner, L. T.

2015-12-01

Forest harvest regimes are changing as land managers cope with fires, drought, and insect damage. Thinning on public lands, typically focused on removal of small trees that could act as fuel ladders, is increasing to reduce risk of crown fires and reduce competition for water in crowded stands. On private lands, drought and wildfires could lead to further shortening of harvest cycles (e.g. from 80 to 45 years) or thinning. To examine the effects of potential changes in management regimes vs climate on carbon processes in forests of Oregon, California and Washington, we used data from ancillary plots, inventories, and satellites to parameterize and test the CLM4.5 model. We first examined contemporary biomass loss over the western US to determine the baseline conditions prior to implementing harvest scenarios. Annual biomass mortality from fires and insects increased significantly (1996-2011), and mortality from insects was about twice that of fires. California, Oregon and Idaho were most impacted by fire-related biomass mortality, whereas Colorado, Montana and Washington were most impacted by insects. Harvest scenarios implemented in CLM4.5 include two thinning scenarios to reduce crown fire risk and drought stress, and a salvage scenario to remove trees remaining after recent beetle or fire related mortality; taking into account our previous work showing 70 - 85 % of salvaged biomass is removed and the remainder is left on-site. We simulated the effect of treatments on current and future net ecosystem carbon balance. Challenges of regional modeling of management effects on carbon and other important considerations are addressed.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: A review

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Dave E. Calkin

2011-01-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to...

Fire Safety. Managing School Facilities, Guide 6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Department for Education and Employment, London (England). Architects and Building Branch.

This booklet discusses how United Kingdom schools can manage fire safety and minimize the risk of fire. The guide examines what legislation school buildings must comply with and covers the major risks. It also describes training and evacuation procedures and provides guidance on fire precautions, alarm systems, fire fighting equipment, and escape…

Most cancer in firefighters is due to radio-frequency radiation exposure not inhaled carcinogens.

PubMed

Milham, S

2009-11-01

Recent reviews and reports of cancer incidence and mortality in firefighters conclude that they are at an increased risk of a number of cancers. These include leukemia, multiple myeloma, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, male breast cancer, malignant melanoma, and cancers of the brain, stomach, colon, rectum, prostate, urinary bladder, testes, and thyroid. Firefighters are exposed to a long list of recognized or probable carcinogens in combustion products and the presumed route of exposure to these carcinogens is by inhalation. Curiously, respiratory system cancers and diseases are usually not increased in firefighters as they are in workers exposed to known inhaled carcinogens. The list of cancers with increased risk in firefighters strongly overlaps the list of cancers at increased risk in workers exposed to electromagnetic fields (EMF) and radiofrequency radiation (RFR). Firefighters have increased exposure to RFR in the course of their work, from the mobile two-way radio communications devices which they routinely use while fighting fires, and at times from firehouse and fire vehicle radio transmitters. I suggest that some of the increased cancer risk in firefighters is caused by RFR exposure, and is therefore preventable. The precautionary principle should be applied to reduce the risk of cancer in firefighters, and workman's compensation rules will necessarily need to be modified.

Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire–climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600–2015 CE

PubMed Central

Taylor, Alan H.; Trouet, Valerie; Skinner, Carl N.; Stephens, Scott

2016-01-01

Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire–climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600–2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring–based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire–climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation—following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)—reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire–climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire–climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California. PMID:27849589

Hydrologic Impacts Associated with the Increased Role of Wildland Fire Across the Rangeland-Xeric Forest Continuum of the Great Basin and Intermountain West, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. J.; Pierson, F. B.; Robichaud, P. R.; Boll, J.; Al-Hamdan, O. Z.

2011-12-01

The increased role of wildland fire across the rangeland-xeric forest continuum in the western United States (US) presents landscape-scale consequences relative runoff and erosion. Concomitant climate conditions and altered plant community transitions in recent decades along grassland-shrubland-woodland-xeric forest transitions have promoted frequent and large wildland fires, and the continuance of the trend appears likely if current or warming climate conditions prevail. Much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West in the US now exists in a state in which rangeland and woodland wildfires stimulated by invasive cheatgrass and dense, horizontal and vertical fuel layers have a greater likelihood of progressing upslope into xeric forests. Drier moisture conditions and warmer seasonal air temperatures, along with dense fuel loads, have lengthened fire seasons and facilitated an increase in the frequency, severity and area burned in mid-elevation western US forests. These changes potentially increase the overall hydrologic vulnerability across the rangeland-xeric forest continuum by spatially and temporally increasing soil surface exposure to runoff and erosion processes. Plot-to-hillslope scale studies demonstrate burning may increase event runoff and/or erosion by factors of 2-40 over small-plots scales and more than 100-fold over large-plot to hillslope scales. Anecdotal reports of large-scale flooding and debris-flow events from rangelands and xeric forests following burning document the potential risk to resources (soil loss, water quality, degraded aquatic habitat, etc.), property and infrastructure, and human life. Such risks are particularly concerning for urban centers near the urban-wildland interface. We do not yet know the long-term ramifications of frequent soil loss associated with commonly occurring runoff events on repeatedly burned sites. However, plot to landscape-scale post-fire erosion rate estimates suggest potential losses of biologically important surface soils may be critically damaging for rangelands given inherent slow soil formation rates. This study presents a summary of fire effects on runoff and erosion across the rangeland-xeric forest continuum of the western US and highlights how that knowledge addresses post-fire hydrologic modeling needs. Further, we present a conceptual framework for advancing post-fire hydrologic vulnerability assessment and identify key areas for future research.

Wildland-Urban Interface Fires and Socioeconomic Conditions: A Case Study of a Northwestern Patagonia City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Torres Curth, Monica; Biscayart, Carolina; Ghermandi, Luciana; Pfister, Gabriela

2012-04-01

In many regions of the world, fires are primarily of anthropogenic origin. In northwestern Patagonia, the number of fires is not correlated with meteorological variables, but is concentrated in urban areas. This study was conducted in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) area of San Carlos de Bariloche (Patagonia, Argentina), within the Nahuel Huapi National Park. WUI fires are particularly problematic because, besides people and goods, they represent a danger to protected areas. We studied the relationship between fire records and socioeconomic indicators within the WUI of San Carlos de Bariloche. We conducted a Multiple Correspondence Factorial Analysis and an Ascendant Hierarchical Classification of the city neighborhoods. The results show that the neighborhoods in Bariloche can be divided into three classes: High Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, including neighborhoods with the highest fire rates, where people have low instruction level, high levels of unsatisfied basic needs and high unemployment levels; Low Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, that groups neighborhoods which present the opposite characterization, and Moderate Socioeconomic Fire Risk neighborhoods, which are more heterogeneous. Once neighborhoods were classified, a Socioeconomic Fire Risk map was generated, supplementing the existing WUI Fire Danger map. Our results emphasize the relevance of socioeconomic variables to fire policies.

Smokers’ self-reported responses to the introduction of reduced ignition propensity (RIP) cigarettes

PubMed Central

Seidenberg, Andrew B; Rees, Vaughan W; Alpert, Hillel R; O'Connor, Richard J; Giovino, Gary A; Hyland, Andrew; Connolly, Gregory N

2015-01-01

Background Changes in cigarette design to meet mandated fire safety standards may have unintended effects on smoker responses by diminishing the consumer's perceptions of product acceptability, smoking and increasing fire-risk behaviours. To address these concerns, population-level data are needed from a jurisdiction where reduced ignition propensity (RIP) cigarettes have been introduced. Methods A cohort of adult smokers was recruited in Massachusetts, USA using a random-digit-dialled telephone survey. The cohort was contacted prior to, and 8 months following, the state-mandated introduction of RIP cigarettes on 1 January 2008. Changes in self-reported subjective cigarette characteristics, smoking topography, fire-risk behaviours, fire events and quitting intentions were assessed. Results A total of 620 Massachusetts smokers completed the baseline survey conducted prior to implementation of the law, and 353 (57%) completed the follow-up survey conducted after implementation. No significant changes were found in self-reported fire-risk behaviour or quitting intentions. In addition, smokers were less likely to report smoking greater than 20 cigarettes per day and inhaling deeply into the chest after the law. Conclusions The introduction of RIP cigarettes in Massachusetts yielded little change, and no adverse effect, on self-reported smoker response, among a sample of mostly Caucasian smokers. PMID:21752794

Near-maximal ECG stress testing and coronary artery disease risk factor analysis in Los Angeles City fire fighters.

PubMed

Barnard, R J; Gardner, G W; Diaco, N V; Kattus, A A

1975-11-01

Near-maximal ECG stress testing and coronary artery disease risk factor analysis including blood pressure, serum cholesterol and smoking habits were conducted on a randomly selected group (N=90) of Los Angeles City Fire Fighters ranging in age from 40 to 59 yrs. The data obtained from the fire fighters were compared to data previously reported for a group of Los Angeles insurance underwriters of the same age range. Only 12% of the fire fighters had cholesterol values greater than 260 mg% while 18% of the insurance executives fell into this category. Only 2% of the fire fighters had blood pressure values greater than 160/90 mm Hg while 25% of the insurance executives were hypertensive. Thirty-two percent of the fire fighters were smokers at the time of testing as compared to 26% for the insurance executives. Only one fire fighter had all three risk factors elevated and only five had two risk factors elevated. Forty-seven of the fire fighters had no risk factors elevated. Ten percent of the fire fighters had ischemic stress tests as compared to 8% for the insurance executives. Of the nine fire fighters with ischemic stress tests one was hypertensive, one had elevated serum triglycerides, and three were smokers at the time of testing. Since the fire fighters are a medically-selected population with low risk factors for CHD, the observed incidence of ischemic stress tests is surprising and suggests that ischemic heart disease may be job associated.

A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States

Treesearch

Jessica R. Haas; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

2013-01-01

Ongoing human development into fire-prone areas contributes to increasing wildfire risk to human life. It is critically important, therefore, to have the ability to characterize wildfire risk to populated places, and to identify geographic areas with relatively high risk. A fundamental component of wildfire risk analysis is establishing the likelihood of wildfire...

The "Let's Get Alarmed!" initiative: a smoke alarm giveaway programme.

PubMed

DiGuiseppi, C; Slater, S; Roberts, I; Adams, L; Sculpher, M; Wade, A; McCarthy, M

1999-09-01

To reduce fires and fire related injuries by increasing the prevalence of functioning smoke alarms in high risk households. The programme was delivered in an inner London area with above average material deprivation and below average smoke alarm ownership. The target population included low income and rental households and households with elderly persons or young children. Forty wards, averaging 4000 households each, were randomised to intervention or control status. Free smoke alarms and fire safety information were distributed in intervention wards by community groups and workers as part of routine activities and by paid workers who visited target neighbourhoods. Recipients provided data on household age distribution and housing tenure. Programme costs were documented from a societal perspective. Data are being collected on smoke alarm ownership and function, and on fires and related injuries and their costs. Community and paid workers distributed 20,050 smoke alarms, potentially sufficient to increase smoke alarm ownership by 50% in intervention wards. Compared with the total study population, recipients included greater proportions of low income and rental households and households including children under 5 years or adults aged 65 and older. Total programme costs were 145,087 Pounds. It is possible to implement a large scale smoke alarm giveaway programme targeted to high risk households in a densely populated, multicultural, materially deprived community. The programme's effects on the prevalence of installed and functioning alarms and the incidence of fires and fire related injuries, and its cost effectiveness, are being evaluated as a randomized controlled trial.

Understanding public perspectives of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Sarah McCaffrey

2008-01-01

In recent years, heightened attention to the social dimensions of wildfire has led to increased discussion of wildfire risk. One focus has been on the need to enhance the wildfire risk perception among homeowners living in high fire hazard areas. The underlying supposition is that once they understand risk, homeowners will then take action to reduce their exposure....

Effects of Climate and Fuels Management on Wildfire Occurrence, Size, Severity and Emissions in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Fites, J. A.; Keyser, A.

2015-12-01

Annual wildfire burned area in federally managed Sierra Nevada forests has increased by more than 10,000 ha per decade since the early 1970s. At the same time, recent years have seen some extremely large fires compared to the historical record, with significant areas of moderate to high severity fire (e.g., McNally 2002, Rim 2013, King 2014 fires). Changes to fuels and fire regimes due to fire suppression and land use, as well as warming temperatures and the occurrence of drought, are thought to be significant factors contributing to increased risks of large, severe fires in Sierra Nevada forests. Over 70% of the vegetated area in federally managed forests in the Sierra Nevada is classified as having altered fuels and fire regimes, while average annual temperature in the Sierra Nevada has been above the long term mean for all but four years in the past two decades. As climate is expected to continue warming for decades to come, we explored fuels management scenarios as the primary tools available to modify risks of large, severe wildfires. We developed experimental statistical models of fire occurrence, fire size, and high severity burned area, to explore the interaction between climate and altered fuels conditions. These models were applied to historical climate conditions, a sample of future climate projections, and to both current fuels conditions and a range of scenarios for fuels treatments. Emissions from wildfires were estimated using the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Our models project that average annual burned area in the Sierra Nevada will more than double by mid-century. Similarly, particulate and other pollution emissions from Sierra Nevada wildfires are projected to more than double, even if future fire severity does not change. Fuels treatment scenarios significantly reduced simulated future burned area and emissions below untreated projections. High severity burned area responded to both climate and fuels treatments. A sensitivity analysis indicated that in areas where the fraction of highly altered fuels is high, successfully restoring fuels to prehistoric conditions could more than compensate for expected climate change effects on fire severity by mid-century.

Determination of pumper truck intervention ratios in zones with high fire potential by using geographical information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aricak, Burak; Kucuk, Omer; Enez, Korhan

2014-01-01

Fighting forest fires not only depends on the forest type, topography, and weather conditions, but is also closely related to the technical properties of fire-fighting equipment. Firefighting is an important part of fire management planning. However, because of the complex nature of forests, creating thematic layers to generate potential fire risk maps is difficult. The use of remote sensing data has become an efficient method for the discrete classification of potential fire risks. The study was located in the Central District of the Kastamonu Regional Forest Directorate, covering an area of 24,320 ha, 15,685 ha of which is forested. On the basis of stand age, crown closure, and tree species, the sizes and distributions of potential fire risk zones within the study area were determined using high-resolution GeoEye satellite imagery and geographical information system data. The status of pumper truck intervention in zones with high fire risk and the sufficiency of existing forest roads within an existing forest network were discussed based on combustible matter characteristics. Pumper truck intervention was 83% for high-risk zones, 79% for medium-risk zones, and 78% for low-risk zones. A pumper truck intervention area map along existing roads was also created.

Seasonal Forecasting of Fires across Southern Borneo, 1997-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, Allan; Field, Robert; Kaiser, Johannes; Langner, Andreas; Moore, Jonathan; Pappenberger, Florian; Siegert, Florian; Weber, Ulrich

2014-05-01

Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process, affecting almost all biogeochemical cycles, and all vegetated biomes. Fires are naturally rare in humid tropical forests, and tropical trees are generally killed by even low-intensity fires. However, fire activity in the tropics has increased markedly over the past 15-20 years, especially in Indonesia, Amazonia, and more recently, central Africa also. Since fire is the prime tool for clearing land in the tropics, it not surprising that the increase in fire activity is strongly associated with increased levels of deforestation, which is driven mainly by world-wide demand for timber and agricultural commodities. The consequences of deforestation fires for biodiversity conservation and emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols are enormous. For example, carbon emissions from tropical biomass burning are around 20% of annual average global fossil fuel emissions. The destructive fires in Indonesia during the exceptionally strong El Niño-induced drought in late 1997 and early 1998 rank as some of the largest peak emissions events in recorded history. Past studies estimate about 1Gt of carbon was released to the atmosphere from the Indonesian fires in 1997 (which were mostly concentrated in carbon-rich forested peatlands). This amount is equivalent to about 14% of the average global annual fossil fuel emissions released during the 1990s. While not as large as the 1997-98 events, significant emissions from biomass burning have also been recorded in other (less severe) El Niño years across Indonesia, in particular, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2009-2010. Recent climate modelling studies indicate that the frequency of El Niño events may increase under future climate change, affecting many tropical countries, including Indonesia. An increased drought frequency plus a projected increase in population and land use pressures in Indonesia, imply there will be even more fires and emissions in future across the region. However, while several studies using historical data have established negative relationships between fires and antecedent rainfall, and/or positive relationships between fires and deforestation in regions affected by El Nino, comparatively little work has attempted to predict fires and emissions in such regions. Ensemble seasonal climate forecasts issued with several months lead-time have been applied to support risk assessment systems in many fields, notably agricultural production and natural disaster management of flooding, heat waves, drought and fire. The USA, for example, has a long-standing seasonal fire danger prediction system. Fire danger monitoring systems have been operating in Indonesia for over a decade, but, as of yet, no fire danger prediction systems exist. Given the effort required to mobilise suppression and prevention measures in Indonesia, one could argue that high fire danger periods must be anticipated months in advance for mitigation and response measures to be effective. To address this need, the goal of our work was to examine the utility of seasonal rainfall forecasts in predicting severe fires in Indonesia more than one month in advance, using southern Borneo (comprising the bulk of Kalimantan) as a case study. Here we present the results of comparing seasonal forecasts of monthly rainfall from ECMWF's System 4 against i) observed rainfall (GPCP), and ii) burnt area and deforestation (MODIS, AVHRR and Landsat) across southern Borneo for the period 1997-2010. Our results demonstrate the utility of using ECMWF's seasonal climate forecasts for predicting fire activity in the region. Potential applications include improved fire mitigation and responsiveness, and improved risk assessments of biodiversity and carbon losses through fire. These are important considerations for forest protection programmes (e.g. REDD+), forest carbon markets and forest (re)insurance enterprises.

Forest fuels and landscape-level fire risk assessment of the ozark highlands, Missouri

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

2007-01-01

In this paper we describe a fire risk assessment of the Ozark Highlands. Fire risk is rated using information on ignition potential and fuel hazard. Fuel loading, a component of the fire hazard module, is weakly predicted (r2 = 0.19) by site- and landscape-level attributes. Fuel loading does not significantly differ between Ozark ecological...

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; D. R. Brillinger; R. E. Burgan; John Benoit

2004-01-01

We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large fire. The model is based on grouped data at the 1 km²-day cell level. We fit a spatially and temporally explicit non-...

Assessing increasing susceptibility to wildfire at the wildland-urban fringe in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, A. M.; Hogue, T. S.

2013-05-01

Much of the western U.S. is increasingly susceptible to wildfire activity due to drier conditions, elevated fuel loads, and expanding urbanization. As population increases, development pushes the urban boundary further into wildlands, creating more potential for human interaction at the wildland-urban interface (WUI), primarily from human ignitions and fire suppression policies. The immediate impacts of wildfires include vulnerability to debris flows, flooding, and impaired water quality. Fires also alter longer-term hydrological and ecosystem behavior. The current study utilizes geospatial datasets to investigate historical wildfire size and frequency relative to the WUI for a range of cities across western North America. California, the most populous state in the U.S., has an extensive fire history. The decennial population and acres burned for four major counties (Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Shasta) in California show that increasing wildfire size and frequency follow urbanization trends, with high correlation between the last decade of burned area, urban-fringe proximity, and increasing population. Ultimately, results will provide information on urban fringe communities that are most vulnerable to the risks associated with wildfire and post-fire impacts. In light of evolving land use policies (i.e. forest management and treatment, development at the urban-fringe) and climate change, it is critical to advance our knowledge of the implications that these conditions pose to urban centers, communicate risks to the public, and ultimately provide guidance for wildfire management.

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy; Peterson, David L.; Riley, Karin L.; Yongquiang Liu,; Luce, Charles H.

2016-01-01

The historical and pre-settlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate—including short- and long-term droughts—are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem.

The Science of Firescapes: Achieving Fire-Resilient Communities

PubMed Central

Smith, Alistair M.S.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Paveglio, Travis B.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Bowman, David MJS; Moritz, Max A.; Kliskey, Andrew D.; Alessa, Lilian; Hudak, Andrew T.; Hoffman, Chad M.; Lutz, James A.; Queen, Lloyd P.; Goetz, Scott J.; Higuera, Philip E.; Boschetti, Luigi; Flannigan, Mike; Yedinak, Kara M.; Watts, Adam C.; Strand, Eva K.; van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Anderson, John W.; Stocks, Brian J.; Abatzoglou, John T.

2016-01-01

Abstract Wildland fire management has reached a crossroads. Current perspectives are not capable of answering interdisciplinary adaptation and mitigation challenges posed by increases in wildfire risk to human populations and the need to reintegrate fire as a vital landscape process. Fire science has been, and continues to be, performed in isolated “silos,” including institutions (e.g., agencies versus universities), organizational structures (e.g., federal agency mandates versus local and state procedures for responding to fire), and research foci (e.g., physical science, natural science, and social science). These silos tend to promote research, management, and policy that focus only on targeted aspects of the “wicked” wildfire problem. In this article, we provide guiding principles to bridge diverse fire science efforts to advance an integrated agenda of wildfire research that can help overcome disciplinary silos and provide insight on how to build fire-resilient communities. PMID:29593361

Texas Disasters II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Assist the Texas Forest Service in Mapping and Analyzing Fuel Loads and Phenology in Texas Grasslands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooke, Michael; Williams, Meredith; Fenn, Teresa

2016-01-01

The risk of severe wildfires in Texas has been related to weather phenomena such as climate change and recent urban expansion into wild land areas. During recent years, Texas wild land areas have experienced sequences of wet and dry years that have contributed to increased wildfire risk and frequency. To prevent and contain wildfires, the Texas Forest Service (TFS) is tasked with evaluating and reducing potential fire risk to better manage and distribute resources. This task is made more difficult due to the vast and varied landscape of Texas. The TFS assesses fire risk by understanding vegetative fuel types and fuel loads. To better assist the TFS, NASA Earth observations, including Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Specrtoradiometer (MODIS) data, were analyzed to produce maps of vegetation type and specific vegetation phenology as it related to potential wildfire fuel loads. Fuel maps from 2010-2011 and 2014-2015 fire seasons, created by the Texas Disasters I project, were used and provided alternating, complementary map indicators of wildfire risk in Texas. The TFS will utilize the end products and capabilities to evaluate and better understand wildfire risk across Texas.

Lead exposure and birth outcomes in five communities in Shoshone County, Idaho.

PubMed

Berkowitz, Zahava; Price-Green, Patricia; Bove, Frank J; Kaye, Wendy E

2006-03-01

This study examined birth outcomes in five towns in Shoshone County, Idaho, where residents were exposed to high levels of lead in air emissions during a 6-month period after a fire had damaged the main baghouse (pollution-control device) of a local lead smelter plant in September 1973. We studied birth certificate data of 169,878 live singleton infants born to mothers who resided in Idaho at the time of delivery. The outcomes evaluated were preterm infants, small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants, low birthweight among term infants (TLBW), and mean birthweight among term infants (TMBW). The study compared births in the five towns in Shoshone County (exposed group) to births in the rest of Idaho during three exposure periods: "pre-fire," January 1, 1970-August 31, 1973; "high exposure," September 1, 1973-December 31, 1974; and "post-fire," January 1, 1975-December 31, 1981. During the high-exposure period, the exposed group had an increased prevalence of TLBW (OR=2.4; 90% CI: 1.6-3.6) and SGA (OR=1.9; 90% CI: 1.3-2.8) compared with the rest of Idaho. During the pre- and post-fire periods, the ORs for TLBW were 0.8 and 1.3, respectively, and for SGA, 1.0, and 1.3, respectively. During the high-exposure period, TMBW for the exposed group was 71 g lower than in the comparison group. The TMBW in the exposed group was 8 g lower in the pre-fire period and 26 g lower in the post-fire period than in the comparison group. The study found no increased risk for preterm birth in the exposed group. Maternal exposures to airborne lead emissions appeared to be associated with increased risks for SGA, TLBW, and reduced TMBW.

Empirical relationships between tree fall and landscape-level amounts of logging and fire

PubMed Central

Blanchard, Wade; Blair, David; McBurney, Lachlan; Stein, John; Banks, Sam C.

2018-01-01

Large old trees are critically important keystone structures in forest ecosystems globally. Populations of these trees are also in rapid decline in many forest ecosystems, making it important to quantify the factors that influence their dynamics at different spatial scales. Large old trees often occur in forest landscapes also subject to fire and logging. However, the effects on the risk of collapse of large old trees of the amount of logging and fire in the surrounding landscape are not well understood. Using an 18-year study in the Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria, we quantify relationships between the probability of collapse of large old hollow-bearing trees at a site and the amount of logging and the amount of fire in the surrounding landscape. We found the probability of collapse increased with an increasing amount of logged forest in the surrounding landscape. It also increased with a greater amount of burned area in the surrounding landscape, particularly for trees in highly advanced stages of decay. The most likely explanation for elevated tree fall with an increasing amount of logged or burned areas in the surrounding landscape is change in wind movement patterns associated with cutblocks or burned areas. Previous studies show that large old hollow-bearing trees are already at high risk of collapse in our study area. New analyses presented here indicate that additional logging operations in the surrounding landscape will further elevate that risk. Current logging prescriptions require the protection of large old hollow-bearing trees on cutblocks. We suggest that efforts to reduce the probability of collapse of large old hollow-bearing trees on unlogged sites will demand careful landscape planning to limit the amount of timber harvesting in the surrounding landscape. PMID:29474487

Empirical relationships between tree fall and landscape-level amounts of logging and fire.

PubMed

Lindenmayer, David B; Blanchard, Wade; Blair, David; McBurney, Lachlan; Stein, John; Banks, Sam C

2018-01-01

Large old trees are critically important keystone structures in forest ecosystems globally. Populations of these trees are also in rapid decline in many forest ecosystems, making it important to quantify the factors that influence their dynamics at different spatial scales. Large old trees often occur in forest landscapes also subject to fire and logging. However, the effects on the risk of collapse of large old trees of the amount of logging and fire in the surrounding landscape are not well understood. Using an 18-year study in the Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans) forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria, we quantify relationships between the probability of collapse of large old hollow-bearing trees at a site and the amount of logging and the amount of fire in the surrounding landscape. We found the probability of collapse increased with an increasing amount of logged forest in the surrounding landscape. It also increased with a greater amount of burned area in the surrounding landscape, particularly for trees in highly advanced stages of decay. The most likely explanation for elevated tree fall with an increasing amount of logged or burned areas in the surrounding landscape is change in wind movement patterns associated with cutblocks or burned areas. Previous studies show that large old hollow-bearing trees are already at high risk of collapse in our study area. New analyses presented here indicate that additional logging operations in the surrounding landscape will further elevate that risk. Current logging prescriptions require the protection of large old hollow-bearing trees on cutblocks. We suggest that efforts to reduce the probability of collapse of large old hollow-bearing trees on unlogged sites will demand careful landscape planning to limit the amount of timber harvesting in the surrounding landscape.

Compressed natural gas bus safety: a quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Samuel; Modarres, Mohammad

2005-04-01

This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel-fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel-powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100-million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100-million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100-million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to fire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 x 10(-5) fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 x 10(-6) and 4.0 x 10(-5), respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping.

Assessing risks to spotted owls from forest thinning in fire-adapted forests of the western United States

Treesearch

Danny C. Lee; Larry L. Irwin

2005-01-01

Concern for viable spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) populations has played prominently in the management of western forests in the United States. Historically, much of the debate has focused on the impacts of commercial timber harvest. Increasingly, the conflict is shifting to the habitat needs of owls versus the need for active management of fire-...

Mitigating Wildfire Risk in the Wildland Urban Interface: The Role of Regulations

Treesearch

Cheryl R. Renner; Margaret Reams; Terry Haines

2006-01-01

The growth of residential communities within forest areas throughout the country, and particularly in the West, has increased the danger to life and property from uncontrolled wildfire. The conflict of permanent residential settlements built next to a fire-adapted ecosystem has been further exacerbated by 100 years of fire suppression and an extended drought in the...

Modeling soil erosion and sediment transport from fires in forested watersheds of the South Carolina Piedmont

Treesearch

Tyler Crumbley; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty

2008-01-01

Forested watersheds in the Southeastern U.S. provide high quality water vital to ecosystem integrity and downstream aquatic resources. Excessive sedimentation from human activities in forest streams is of concern to responsible land managers. Prescribed fire is a common treatment applied to Southeastern piedmont forests and the risk of wildfire is becoming increasingly...

Modeling soil erosion and sediment transport from fires in forested watersheds of the South Carolina Piedmont

Treesearch

Tyler Crumbley; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty

2007-01-01

Forested watersheds in the Southeastern U.S. provide high quality water vital to ecosystem integrity and downstream aquatic resources. Excessive sedimentation from human activities in forest streams is of concern to responsible land managers. Prescribed fire is a common treatment applied to Southeastern Piedmont forests and the risk of wildfire is becoming increasingly...

Outreach programs, peer pressure, and common sense: What motivates homeowners to mitigate wildfire risk?

Treesearch

Sarah M. McCaffrey; Melanie Stidham; Eric Toman; Bruce Shindler

2011-01-01

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes...

Resilience Through Disturbance: Effects of Wildfire on Vegetation and Water Balance in the Sierra Nevadas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boisrame, G. F. S.; Thompson, S. E.; Stephens, S.; Collins, B.; Tague, N.

2015-12-01

A century of fire suppression in the Western United States has drastically altered the historically fire-adapated ecology in California's Sierra Nevada Mountains. Fire suppression is understood to have increased the forest cover, as well as the stem density, canopy cover and water demand of montane forests, reducing resilience of the forests to drought, and increasing the risk of catastrophic fire by drying the landscape and increasing fuel loads. The potential to reverse these trends by re-introducing fire into the Sierra Nevada is highly promising, but the likely effects on vegetation structure and water balance are poorly quantified. The Illilouette Creek Basin in Yosemite National Park represents a unique experiment in the Sierra Nevada, in which managers have moved from fire suppression to allowing a near-natural fire regime to prevail since 1972. Changes in vegetation structure in the Illilouette since the restoration of natural burning provides a unique opportunity to examine how frequent, mixed severity fires can reshape the Sierra Nevada landscape. We characterize these changes from 1969 to the present using a combination of Landsat products and high-resolution aerial imagery. We describe how the landscape structure has changed in terms of vegetation composition and its spatial organization, and explore the drivers of different post-fire vegetation type transitions (e.g. forest to shrubland vs. forest to meadow). By upscaling field data using vegetation maps and Landsat wetness indices, we explore how these vegetation transitions have impacted the water balance of the Illilouette Creek Basin, potentially increasing its resilience in the face of drought, climate change, and catastrophic fire. In a region that is adapted to frequent disturbance from fire, this work helps us understand how allowing such natural disturbances to take place can increase the sustainability of diverse landscapes in the long term.

Factors influencing fire behaviour in shrublands of different stand ages and the implications for using prescribed burning to reduce wildfire risk.

PubMed

Baeza, M J; De Luís, M; Raventós, J; Escarré, A

2002-06-01

Fire behaviour under experimental conditions is described in nine Mediterranean gorse shrublands ranging from 3-12 years of age with different fuel loads. Significant differences in the fire-line intensity, fuel load and rate of fire spread have been found to be related to the stage of development of the communities. Fire spread is correlated with fuel moisture using multiple regression techniques. Differences in fuel moisture between mature and young communities under moderate weather conditions have been found. The lower moisture content identified in the mature shrubland is due both to the decreasing moisture content of senescent shrubland in some species, mainly in live fractions of Ulex parviflorus Pour. fuel, and to a substantial increase in dead fuel fractions with low percentages of moisture content. The result is that the older the shrubland is, the greater will be the decrease in the total moisture content of the vegetation. In these moderate weather conditions, the fire intensity of the mature community was as high as the maximum intensity recommended for prescribed fires. This fact seems to indicate that, even under moderate conditions, prescribed burning as an alternative management tool in the mature shrubland must always take into account fuel control; on the other hand, this technique could be applied more easily when the shrubland is at an intermediate growth stage (4-5 years of age). Therefore, more frequent low-intensity prescribed fires are indicated to abate the risk of catastrophic fire.

The efficacy of fuel treatment in mitigating property loss during wildfires: Insights from analysis of the severity of the catastrophic fires in 2009 in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Price, Owen F; Bradstock, Ross A

2012-12-30

Treatment of fuel (e.g. prescribed fire, logging) in fire-prone ecosystems is done to reduce risks to people and their property but effects require quantification, particularly under severe weather conditions when the destructive potential of fires on human infrastructure is maximised. We analysed the relative effects of fuel age (i.e. indicative of the effectiveness of prescribed fire) and logging on remotely sensed (SPOT imagery) severity of fires which occurred in eucalypt forests in Victoria, Australia in 2009. These fires burned under the most severe weather conditions recorded in Australia and caused large losses of life and property. Statistical models of the probability of contrasting extremes of severity (crown fire versus fire confined to the understorey) were developed based on effects of fuel age, logging, weather, topography and forest type. Weather was the primary influence on severity, though it was reduced at low fuel ages in Moderate but not Catastrophic, Very High or Low fire-weather conditions. Probability of crown fires was higher in recently logged areas than in areas logged decades before, indicating likely ineffectiveness as a fuel treatment. The results suggest that recently burnt areas (up to 5-10 years) may reduce the intensity of the fire but not sufficiently to increase the chance of effective suppression under severe weather conditions. Since house loss was most likely under these conditions (67%), effects of prescribed burning across landscapes on house loss are likely to be small when weather conditions are severe. Fuel treatments need to be located close to houses in order to effectively mitigate risk of loss. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Role and Impact of Geospatial Data for Wildland Fire Management Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, E. A.; Lev, S. M.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Wildland and Fire Science and Technology Task Force Final Report, produced by the National Science and Technology Council, Committee on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability, Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, highlighted the increasing frequency of large wildfires and the growing demand for science to inform critical resource decisions to manage, mitigate, respond to, and recover from wildland fires. Federal spending on fire suppression from 2005-2015 has more than doubled despite policy changes that prioritize the mitigation of fire risks through the use of fuel treatments, prescribed fire, and management of naturally occurring wildfires to protect life and property. Fire suppression policies over the last century have created forests primed for severe fire, and in the face of a changing climate, the benefits of re-introducing fire into once fire-resilient ecosystems are clear. There are a range of complex factors and regional variation associated with wildland fire risk that complicate our understanding and effective management of this hazard. Data derived from Earth-observing (EO) systems and networks are a crucial input for managers when making decisions about fire suppression and fuel management. EO data can also be used to develop pre- and post-fire metrics that can aid in the evaluating the effectiveness of wildland fire management decisions. A value-tree method for mapping the role of EO systems and networks in delivering societal benefit through key Federal objectives related to wildland fire management will be presented. The value-tree methodology utilizes input from subject matter experts to assess the availability and usability of data and data products and to evaluate the impact of individual EO data inputs for achieving wildland fire management objectives. The results provide a qualitative assessment of the value of the data for the objectives described and identify critical gaps and continuity issues associated with improvements to and continuous delivery of societal benefit.

Prediction and Mitigation of the Effects of Catastrophic Fire on Water Supplies: Science for Risk Reduction and Planning for Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, D. A.; Tindall, J.

2008-12-01

Precipitation falling on forests and grasslands provides much of the water to communities across the United States. The U.S. Forest Service estimates that over 3,400 communities are served by water draining land under its jurisdiction alone. Much of this land is subject to wildland fires, which have been increasing in size and severity in the western United States in response to climatic forcing and increased ignitions from human sources. Runoff from burned landscapes can present a significant risk to municipal and agricultural water supplies from ash, sediment, contaminants from burned structures, and fire-fighting chemicals. Several municipalities, including Denver, Colorado, have experienced both short-term and long-term degradation of their water supplies in the aftermath of fires in watersheds upstream from drinking water reservoirs. Scientific efforts to predict and mitigate the effects of catastrophic fire on water supplies have focused on three areas. The first consists of data collection and carefully designed experiments to understand the change of the hydrologic behavior of burned watersheds in response to rain with different intensities, durations, and trajectories as the watersheds recover. Results from these studies are used to validate models that predict watershed response under different initial conditions constrained by remotely-sensed burn severity, topography, rainfall-intensity recurrence probabilities and other factors. These predictions are the basis for rehabilitation measures applied to the landscape to minimize post-fire runoff and erosion. Efforts are under way to incorporate the chemical effects of ash and fire-fighting compounds in decision-support tools. A second area of scientific focus is the characterization of the chemical and physical properties of ash from wildland fire, including ash from structures consumed by fire. The ash chemistry is correlated to remotely- sensed data, type of vegetation that burned, and the underlying geology. Ash affects the hydraulic properties and behavior of soils in burned watersheds while it still mantles the hillslopes, but it is easily delivered to water bodies by rain and wind as a flush of material that affects water chemistry and properties like turbidity and temperature. A third thrust is to identify watersheds that are critical to the function of municipal water supplies and infrastructure to determine their vulnerability to fire and post-fire effects. This information can be used to prioritize areas for fuel treatments or land management practices to minimize the probability of high severity fire and hence the effects of post-fire runoff. Scientific studies are providing crucial information about such topics as changes in soil erodibility, infiltration and runoff after fire, and the effects of vegetation recovery. Even in watersheds where land management actions are limited by topography or land use designation, such as wilderness areas, knowledge of the potential response of burned areas allows water providers to develop rapid-response and long-term plans based on scientific data and tools. Some climate change models are predicting hotter, drier temperatures in certain areas of the United States and a higher probability of larger, more severe wildfires. These predictions have a direct bearing on the potential risk of impairment of water supplies by post-fire runoff and erosion. In an era when water availability and quality are of utmost importance, careful scientific studies focused on the effects of wildland fire on water supplies will continue to inform public policy and decision making on topics of vulnerability and risk reduction.

The role of prescribed burn associations in the application of prescribed fires in rangeland ecosystems.

PubMed

Toledo, David; Kreuter, Urs P; Sorice, Michael G; Taylor, Charles A

2014-01-01

Risk and liability concerns regarding fire affect people's attitudes toward fire and have led to human-induced alterations of fire regimes. This has, in turn, contributed to brush encroachment and degradation of many grasslands and savannas. Efforts to successfully restore such degraded ecosystems at the landscape scale in regions of the United States with high proportions of private lands require the reintroduction of fire. Prescribed Burn Associations (PBA) provide training, equipment, and labor to apply fire safely, facilitating the application of this rangeland management tool and thereby reducing the associated risk. PBAs help build networks and social capital among landowners who are interested in using fire. They can also change attitudes toward fire and enhance the social acceptability of using prescribed fire as a management practice. PBAs are an effective mechanism for promoting the widespread use of prescribed fire to restore and maintain the biophysical integrity of grasslands and savannas at the landscape scale. We report findings of a project aimed at determining the human dimensions of using prescribed fire to control woody plant encroachment in three different eco-regions of Texas. Specifically, we examine membership in PBAs as it relates to land manager decisions regarding the use of prescribed fire. Perceived risk has previously been identified as a key factor inhibiting the use of prescribed fire by landowners. Our results show that perceived constraints, due to lack of skill, knowledge, and access to equipment and membership in a PBAs are more important factors than risk perceptions in affecting landowner decisions about the use of fire. This emphasizes the potential for PBAs to reduce risk perceptions regarding the application of prescribed fire and, therefore, their importance for restoring brush-encroached grasslands and savannas. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The biodiversity cost of carbon sequestration in tropical savanna.

PubMed

Abreu, Rodolfo C R; Hoffmann, William A; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L; Pilon, Natashi A; Rossatto, Davi R; Durigan, Giselda

2017-08-01

Tropical savannas have been increasingly viewed as an opportunity for carbon sequestration through fire suppression and afforestation, but insufficient attention has been given to the consequences for biodiversity. To evaluate the biodiversity costs of increasing carbon sequestration, we quantified changes in ecosystem carbon stocks and the associated changes in communities of plants and ants resulting from fire suppression in savannas of the Brazilian Cerrado, a global biodiversity hotspot. Fire suppression resulted in increased carbon stocks of 1.2 Mg ha -1 year -1 since 1986 but was associated with acute species loss. In sites fully encroached by forest, plant species richness declined by 27%, and ant richness declined by 35%. Richness of savanna specialists, the species most at risk of local extinction due to forest encroachment, declined by 67% for plants and 86% for ants. This loss highlights the important role of fire in maintaining biodiversity in tropical savannas, a role that is not reflected in current policies of fire suppression throughout the Brazilian Cerrado. In tropical grasslands and savannas throughout the tropics, carbon mitigation programs that promote forest cover cannot be assumed to provide net benefits for conservation.

The national database of wildfire mitigation programs: state, county and local efforts reduce wildfire risk

Treesearch

Terry Haines; Cheryl Renner; Margaret Reams; James Granskog

2005-01-01

The growth of residential communities within forested areas has increased the danger to life and property from uncontrolled wildfire. In response, states, counties and local governments in the United States have dramatically increased their wildfire mitigation efforts. Policymakers and fire officials are employing a wide range of regulatory and voluntary wildfire risk...

Advanced spacecraft fire safety: Proposed projects and program plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Youngblood, Wallace W.; Vedha-Nayagam, M.

1989-01-01

A detailed review identifies spacecraft fire safety issues and the efforts for their resolution, particularly for the threats posed by the increased on-orbit duration, size, and complexity of the Space Station Freedom. Suggestions provided by a survey of Wyle consultants and outside fire safety experts were combined into 30 research and engineering projects. The projects were then prioritized with respect to urgency to meet Freedom design goals, status of enabling technology, cost, and so on, to yield 14 highest priority projects, described in terms of background, work breakdown structure, and schedule. These highest priority projects can be grouped into the thematic areas of fire detection, fire extinguishment, risk assessment, toxicology and human effects, and ground based testing. Recommendations for overall program management stress the need for NASA Headquarters and field center coordination, with information exchange through spacecraft fire safety oversight committees.

An evaluation of The Great Escape: can an interactive computer game improve young children's fire safety knowledge and behaviors?

PubMed

Morrongiello, Barbara A; Schwebel, David C; Bell, Melissa; Stewart, Julia; Davis, Aaron L

2012-07-01

Fire is a leading cause of unintentional injury and, although young children are at particularly increased risk, there are very few evidence-based resources available to teach them fire safety knowledge and behaviors. Using a pre-post randomized design, the current study evaluated the effectiveness of a computer game (The Great Escape) for teaching fire safety information to young children (3.5-6 years). Using behavioral enactment procedures, children's knowledge and behaviors related to fire safety were compared to a control group of children before and after receiving the intervention. The results indicated significant improvements in knowledge and fire safety behaviors in the intervention group but not the control. Using computer games can be an effective way to promote young children's understanding of safety and how to react in different hazardous situations.

An analytical framework for quantifying wildland fire risk and fuel treatment benefit

Treesearch

Joe H. Scott

2006-01-01

Federal wildland fire management programs have readily embraced the practice of fuel treatment. Wildland fire risk is quantified as expected annual loss ($ yr –1 or $ yr –1 ac –1). Fire risk at a point on the landscape is a function of the probability of burning at that point, the relative frequency...

Fire Effects Planning Framework: A user's guide

Treesearch

A. Black; T. Opperman

2005-01-01

Each decision to suppress fire reinforces a feedback cycle in which fuels continue to accumulate, risk escalates, and the tendency to suppress fires grows (Miller and others, 2003). Existing decision-support tools focus primarily on the negative consequences of fire. This guide outlines a framework managers can use to (1) identify key areas of fire risk and (2)...

Reducing the Risk of Damage to Power Transformers of 110 kV and Above Accompanying Internal Short Circuits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

L’vova, M. M.; L’vov, S. Yu.; Komarov, V. B.

Methods of increasing the operating reliability of power transformers, autotransformers and shunting reactors in order to reduce the risk of damage, which accompany internal short circuits and equipment fires and explosions, are considered.

Prevalence of behaviors related to cigarette‐caused fires: a survey of Ontario smokers

PubMed Central

O'Connor, R J; Bauer, J E; Giovino, G A; Hammond, D; Hyland, A; Fong, G T; Cummings, K M

2007-01-01

Objective To identify the prevalence and correlates of behaviors related to the risk of cigarette‐caused fires. Design and setting Random‐digit‐dialed telephone survey in Ontario, Canada, July–September, 2005. Subjects 596 current cigarette smokers. Outcome measures Prevalence of fire‐risk events and behaviors such as burning clothing or objects in the home, leaving lit cigarettes unattended, dozing while smoking, and smoking in bed and correlates of these behaviors. Respondents were also asked if they ever worry about cigarette‐caused fires. Results One in four smokers admitted to leaving lit cigarettes unattended in the last 30 days, while 15% admitted to smoking while in bed. Leaving lit cigarettes unattended was independent of demographic, socioeconomic or nicotine dependence indicators, but was related to worry about burning other persons with a cigarette (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.85) and smoking inside the home (OR 2.98, 95% CI 1.66 to 5.35). Persons who were not white (OR 3.97, 95% CI 1.80 to 8.80), aged 18–24 years (OR 3.75, 95% CI 1.41 to 9.96), who had high nicotine dependence (OR 9.13, 95% CI 2.22 to 37.52) and worried about burning objects in their home (OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.31 to 4.52) were more likely to smoke in bed. 10 (1.7%) smokers reported having ever had a fire in their home started by a cigarette. Conclusions Smokers engage in behaviors such as smoking in bed and leaving lit cigarettes unattended that may place them at an increased risk of cigarette‐caused fires. As governments move to regulate cigarette ignition propensity, it is important to establish surveillance for behaviors related to fire risk. PMID:17686933

Development of new index for forest fire risk using satellite images in Indonesia through the direct spectral measurements of soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, A.; Akita, M.; Takahashi, Y.; Suzuki, H.; Hasegawa, Y.; Ogino, Y.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.

2016-12-01

In recent years, the smoke caused by the forest fires in Indonesia has become a serious problem. Most of the land in Indonesia is covered with peat moss, which occurs the expanding of fires due to the burning itself. Thus, the surface soil water, reflecting the amount of precipitation in the area, can become the indication of the risk of fires. This study aims to develop a new index reflecting the risk of forest fires in Indonesia using satellite remote sensing through the direct spectral measurements of peat moss soil.We have prepared the peat moss in 7 steps of soil water content measured at an accuracy of ±15 percent (Field pro, WD-3). We obtained spectra between 400nm and 1050nm (Source: halogen lamp, spectroscope: self-made space time, spectral analysis kit) from the peat moss.The obtained spectra show the difference from the previous spectral measurement for the soil in various water content. There are the features, especially, in the wavelength range of ultraviolet (400-450nm) and infrared (530-800nm) as shown in the figure; the more the soil water increases, the lower the reflectance becomes. We have developed a new index using the New deep blue band (433 453nm and NIR band 845 885nm of Landsat 8. The resulting satellite images calculated by our original index appears to reflect the risk of forest fires rather than well-known indices such as Normalized Difference Water Index and Normalized difference Soil Index.In conclusion, we have created a new index that highly reflects to the degree of soil water of a peat soil in Indonesia.

Field modeling of heat transfer in atrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedryshkin, Oleg; Gravit, Marina; Bushuev, Nikolay

2017-10-01

The results of calculating fire risk are an important element in the system of modern fire safety assessment. The article reviews the work on the mathematical modeling of fire in the room. A comparison of different calculation models in the programs of fire risk assessment and fire modeling was performed. The results of full-scale fire tests and fire modeling in the FDS program are presented. The analysis of empirical and theoretical data on fire modeling is made, a conclusion is made about the modeling accuracy in the FDS program.

Application of the NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC Fire PRA Methodology to a DOE Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tom Elicson; Bentley Harwood; Richard Yorg

2011-03-01

The application NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI/NRC fire PRA methodology to DOE facility presented several challenges. This paper documents the process and discusses several insights gained during development of the fire PRA. A brief review of the tasks performed is provided with particular focus on the following: • Tasks 5 and 14: Fire-induced risk model and fire risk quantification. A key lesson learned was to begin model development and quantification as early as possible in the project using screening values and simplified modeling if necessary. • Tasks 3 and 9: Fire PRA cable selection and detailed circuit failure analysis. In retrospect, it wouldmore » have been beneficial to perform the model development and quantification in 2 phases with detailed circuit analysis applied during phase 2. This would have allowed for development of a robust model and quantification earlier in the project and would have provided insights into where to focus the detailed circuit analysis efforts. • Tasks 8 and 11: Scoping fire modeling and detailed fire modeling. More focus should be placed on detailed fire modeling and less focus on scoping fire modeling. This was the approach taken for the fire PRA. • Task 14: Fire risk quantification. Typically, multiple safe shutdown (SSD) components fail during a given fire scenario. Therefore dependent failure analysis is critical to obtaining a meaningful fire risk quantification. Dependent failure analysis for the fire PRA presented several challenges which will be discussed in the full paper.« less

Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

2014-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

United States Fire Administration

MedlinePlus

... Vehicle Fire Safety flyer PDF 234 KB Publication Risk management practices This guide contains recommended approaches to manage organizational, operational and community risk. If you are a fire department leader, our ...

Short- and long-term effects of fire on carbon in US dry temperate forest systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hurteau, Matthew D.; Brooks, Matthew L.

2011-01-01

Forests sequester carbon from the atmosphere, and in so doing can mitigate the effects of climate change. Fire is a natural disturbance process in many forest systems that releases carbon back to the atmosphere. In dry temperate forests, fires historically burned with greater frequency and lower severity than they do today. Frequent fires consumed fuels on the forest floor and maintained open stand structures. Fire suppression has resulted in increased understory fuel loads and tree density; a change in structure that has caused a shift from low- to high-severity fires. More severe fires, resulting in greater tree mortality, have caused a decrease in forest carbon stability. Fire management actions can mitigate the risk of high-severity fires, but these actions often require a trade-off between maximizing carbon stocks and carbon stability. We discuss the effects of fire on forest carbon stocks and recommend that managing forests on the basis of their specific ecologies should be the foremost goal, with carbon sequestration being an ancillary benefit. ?? 2011 by American Institute of Biological Sciences. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Fire Risk for a Historic Hangar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Datta, Koushik; Morrison, Richard S.

2010-01-01

NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) is evaluating options of reuse of its historic Hangar 1. As a part of this evaluation, a qualitative fire risk assessment study was performed to evaluate the potential threat of combustion of the historic hangar. The study focused on the fire risk trade-off of either installing or not installing a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System in the Hangar 1 deck areas. The assessment methodology was useful in discussing the important issues among various groups within the Center. Once the methodology was deemed acceptable, the results were assessed. The results showed that the risk remained in the same risk category, whether Hangar 1 does or does not have a Special Hazard Fire Suppression System. Note that the methodology assessed the risk to Hangar 1 and not the risk to an aircraft in the hangar. If one had a high value aircraft, the aircraft risk analysis could potentially show a different result. The assessed risk results were then communicated to management and other stakeholders.

Managing the risks of risk management on large fires

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2013-01-01

Large fires pose risks to a number of important values, including the ecology, property and the lives of incident responders. A relatively unstudied aspect of fire management is the risks to which incident managers are exposed due to organizational and sociopolitical factors that put them in a position of, for example, potential liability or degradation of their image...

Managing risk with chance-constrained programming

Treesearch

Michael Bevers; Brian Kent

2007-01-01

Reducing catastrophic fire risk is an important objective of many fuel treatment programs (Kent et al. 2003; Machlis et al. 2002; USDA/USDI 2001a). In practice, risk reductions can be accomplished by lowering the probability of a given loss to forest fires, the amount of probable loss, or both. Forest fire risk objectives are seldom quantified, however, making it...

Application of wildfire simulation methods to assess wildfire exposure in a Mediterranean fire-prone area (Sardinia, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, M.; Ager, A.; Arca, B.; Finney, M.; Bacciu, V. M.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

2012-12-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of fire spread and behavior are dependent on interactions among climate, topography, vegetation and fire suppression efforts (Pyne et al. 1996; Viegas 2006; Falk et al. 2007). Humans also play a key role in determining frequency and spatial distribution of ignitions (Bar Massada et al, 2011), and thus influence fire regimes as well. The growing incidence of catastrophic wildfires has led to substantial losses for important ecological and human values within many areas of the Mediterranean basin (Moreno et al. 1998; Mouillot et al. 2005; Viegas et al. 2006a; Riaño et al. 2007). The growing fire risk issue has led to many new programs and policies of fuel management and risk mitigation by environmental and fire agencies. However, risk-based methodologies to help identify areas characterized by high potential losses and prioritize fuel management have been lacking for the region. Formal risk assessment requires the joint consideration of likelihood, intensity, and susceptibility, the product of which estimates the chance of a specific loss (Brillinger 2003; Society of Risk Analysis, 2006). Quantifying fire risk therefore requires estimates of a) the probability of a specific location burning at a specific intensity and location, and b) the resulting change in financial or ecological value (Finney 2005; Scott 2006). When large fires are the primary cause of damage, the application of this risk formulation requires modeling fire spread to capture landscape properties that affect burn probability. Recently, the incorporation of large fire spread into risk assessment systems has become feasible with the development of high performance fire simulation systems (Finney et al. 2011) that permit the simulation of hundreds of thousands of fires to generate fine scale maps of burn probability, flame length, and fire size, while considering the combined effects of weather, fuels, and topography (Finney 2002; Andrews et al. 2007; Ager and Finney 2009; Finney et al. 2009; Salis et al. 2012 accepted). In this work, we employed wildfire simulation methods to quantify wildfire exposure to human and ecological values for the island of Sardinia, Italy. The work was focused on the risk and exposure posed by large fires (e.g. 100 - 10,000 ha), and considers historical weather, ignition patterns and fuels. We simulated 100,000 fires using burn periods that replicated the historical size distribution on the Island, and an ignition probability grid derived from historic ignition data. We then examine spatial variation in three exposure components (burn probability, flame length, fire size) among important human and ecological values. The results allowed us to contract exposure among and within the various features examined, and highlighted the importance of human factors in shaping wildfire exposure in Sardinia. The work represents the first application of burn probability modeling in the Mediterranean region, and sets the stage for expanded work in the region to quantify risk from large fires

Influence of fuels, weather and the built environment on the exposure of property to wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penman, Trent D.; Collins, Luke S.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2014-01-01

Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment – either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates.

Influence of Fuels, Weather and the Built Environment on the Exposure of Property to Wildfire

PubMed Central

Penman, Trent D.; Collins, Luke; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2014-01-01

Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment – either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates. PMID:25360741

Locating Spatial Variation in the Association Between Wildland Fire Risk and Social Vulnerability Across Six Southern States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poudyal, Neelam C.; Johnson-Gaither, Cassandra; Goodrick, Scott; Bowker, J. M.; Gan, Jianbang

2012-03-01

Wildland fire in the South commands considerable attention, given the expanding wildland urban interface (WUI) across the region. Much of this growth is propelled by higher income retirees and others desiring natural amenity residential settings. However, population growth in the WUI increases the likelihood of wildfire fire ignition caused by people, as humans account for 93% of all wildfires fires in the South. Coexisting with newly arrived, affluent WUI populations are working class, poor or otherwise socially vulnerable populations. The latter groups typically experience greater losses from environmental disasters such as wildfire because lower income residents are less likely to have established mitigation programs in place to help absorb loss. We use geographically weighted regression to examine spatial variation in the association between social vulnerability (SOVUL) and wildfire risk. In doing so, we identify "hot spots" or geographical clusters where SOVUL varies positively with wildfire risk across six Southern states—Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. These clusters may or may not be located in the WUI. These hot spots are most prevalent in South Carolina and Florida. Identification of these population clusters can aid wildfire managers in deciding which communities to prioritize for mitigation programming.

Shared values and trust: the experience of community residents in a fire-prone ecosystem

Treesearch

Patricia L. Winter; George T. Cvetkovich

2010-01-01

The risk and impact of fires have been significant on the San Bernardino National Forest. It is important to understand how residents of areas surrounded by the forest perceive the impact of fires. If fire management agencies understand these perceptions, fire management agencies will be better equipped to communicate with publics about risk-reduction efforts that...

Evaluating risks and benefits of wildland fire at landscape scales

Treesearch

Carol Miller; Peter B. Landres; Paul B. Alaback

2000-01-01

Fire suppression has resulted in severe management challenges, especially in the wildland-urban interface zone. Fire managers seek to reduce fuels and risks in the interface zone, while striving to return the natural role of fire to wildland ecosystems. Managers must balance the benefits of wildland fire on ecosystem health against the values that need to be protected...

Climate Change Adaptation Plan

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

evapotranspiration impacting reservoirs and soil moisture; increased risk of wild fires; alterations in material properties Increases in worker safety...Changes in evapotranspiration N: Navig ion F: Flood and Coastal Storm Damage Reduction R: cosystem Restoration H: Hydropower RG: Regulatory RC

76 FR 81998 - Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-29

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0295] Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA AGENCY..., ``Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA--Draft Report for Comment.'' DATES: Submit comments by March 01... risk assessment (PRA) method for quantitatively analyzing fire risk in commercial nuclear power plants...

Effects of prescribed fire and post-fire rainfall on mercury mobilization and subsequent contamination assessment in a legacy mine site in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Abraham, Joji; Dowling, Kim; Florentine, Singarayer

2018-01-01

Prescribed fire conducted in fire-prone areas is a cost-effective choice for forest management, but it also affects many of the physicochemical and bio-geological properties of the forest soil, in a similar manner to wild fires. The aim of this study is to investigate the nature of the mercury mobilization after a prescribed fire and the subsequent temporal changes in concentration. A prescribed fire was conducted in a legacy mine site in Central Victoria, Australia, in late August 2015 and soil sample collection and analyses were carried out two days before and two days after the fire, followed by collection at the end of each season and after an intense rainfall event in September 2016. Results revealed the occurrence of mercury volatilization (8.3-97%) during the fire, and the mercury concentration displayed a significant difference (p < 0.05) before and immediately after the fire. Integrated assessment with number of pollution indices has shown that the study site is extremely contaminated with mercury during all the sampling events, and this poses a serious ecological risk due to the health impacts of mercury on human and ecosystems. In times of climate fluctuation with concomitant increase in forest fire (including prescribed fire), and subsequent precipitation and runoff, the potential for an increased amount of mercury being mobilized is of heighted significance. Therefore, it is recommended that prescribed fire should be cautiously considered as a forest management strategy in any mercury affected landscapes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Firefighter perceptions of cancer risk: Results of a qualitative study.

PubMed

Anderson, David A; Harrison, Tyler R; Yang, Fan; Wendorf Muhamad, Jessica; Morgan, Susan E

2017-07-01

Recent epidemiological research on firefighters indicates an increased incidence of specific types of cancer. Intervention is needed in the fire service yet little is known about how firefighters perceive their cancer risk. Participant observation (150 h, n = 100) and focus group (n = 17) data were collected from 15 fire stations in South Florida. Firefighters had at least 3 years of experience, ranks included drivers, captains, lieutenants, and specialty captains, with a median age of 51 years. From the qualitative analysis, two major categories (direct and indirect factors) for cancer risks emerged based on participant notions of cancer risk and cancer prevention behaviors as they relate to firefighting. Firefighters perceive cancer risks as the result of performing essential job tasks and from indirect job factors related to being a firefighter. The two categories of cancer risks suggest different points of entry for intervention. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE PAGES

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; ...

2016-06-09

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

2016-06-01

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Urban Fire Incidents: a Case Study of Nanjing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, J.; Zhang, X.

2016-06-01

Fire and rescue service is one of the fundamental public services provided by government in order to protect people, properties and environment from fires and other disasters, and thus promote a safer living environment. Well understanding spatial-temporal dynamics of fire incidents can offer insights for potential determinants of various fire events and enable better fire risk estimation, assisting future allocation of prevention resources and strategic planning of mitigation programs. Using a 12-year (2002-2013) dataset containing the urban fire events in Nanjing, China, this research explores the spatial-temporal dynamics of urban fire incidents. A range of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) approaches and tools, such as spatial kernel density and co-maps, are employed to examine the spatial, temporal and spatial-temporal variations of the fire events. Particular attention has been paid to two types of fire incidents: residential properties and local facilities, due to their relatively higher occurrence frequencies. The results demonstrated that the amount of urban fire has greatly increased in the last decade and spatial-temporal distribution of fire events vary among different incident types, which implies varying impact of potential influencing factors for further investigation.

78 FR 28892 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID FEMA 2010-0037] Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION..., limbing and mowing, thinning, and grazing techniques as appropriate to reduce the risk of fire hazard...

Restoring Southern Pine Forests Ecosystems: Plant Community Response to Mechanical Midstory History Reduction and Prescribed Fire on Sandhills at Fort Benning Georgia

Treesearch

Dale Brockway; Kenneth W. Outcalt; Becky L. Estes

2003-01-01

Developed during periods of fire exclusion, dense midstory vegetation, that reduces understory plant diversity (competitive shading) and increases the risk of damaging Wildfire (fuel ladder from ground to canopy), has impeded restoration efforts to safely reintroduce prescribed burning in southern pine ecosystems. Our study evaluated the effects of midstory reduction...

A prescription for controlling the air pollution resulting from the use of prescribed biomass fire: clouds

Treesearch

L.F. Radke; D.E. Ward; P.J. Riggan

2001-01-01

Forestry, conservation, wildfire risk reduction, and agricultural uses of planned or prescribed fires as a tool for meeting the needs of wildland managers are increasingly in collision at the air pollution control and climate change cross-roads. The inevitable conflict resulting from the disparate goals of users has long been the subject of a combination of both...

Predicting post-fire hillslope erosion in forest lands of the western United States

Treesearch

Mary Ellen Miller; Lee H. MacDonald; Peter R. Robichaud; William J. Elliot

2011-01-01

Many forests and their associated water resources are at increasing risk from large and severe wildfires due to high fuel accumulations and climate change. Extensive fuel treatments are being proposed, but it is not clear where such treatments should be focussed. The goals of this project were to: (1) predict potential post-fire erosion rates for forests and shrublands...

Uncertainties in predicting debris flow hazards following wildfire [Chapter 19

Treesearch

Kevin D. Hyde; Karin Riley; Cathelijne Stoof

2017-01-01

Wildfire increases the probability of debris flows posing hazardous conditions where values‐at‐risk exist downstream of burned areas. Conditions and processes leading to postfire debris flows usually follow a general sequence defined here as the postfire debris flow hazard cascade: biophysical setting, fire processes, fire effects, rainfall, debris flow, and values‐at‐...

A site-specific approach for assessing the fire risk to structures at the wildland/urban interface

Treesearch

Jack Cohen

1991-01-01

The essence of the wildland/urban interface fire problem is the loss of homes. The problem is not new, but is becoming increasingly important as more homes with inadequate adherence to safety codes are built at the wildland/urban interface. Current regulatory codes are inflexible. Specifications for building and site characteristics cannot be adjusted to accommodate...

Landscape fire in East Siberia: medical, ecological and economic aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efimova, N. V.; Rukavishnikov, V. S.; Zabuga, G. A.; Elfimova, T. A.

2018-01-01

More than 40 % of the forests in Siberia region are known to have a fire danger of high classes and high burning degrees. This paper describes air pollutants emission (PM10, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and others) in East Siberian region during a 10-year period in the forests fires focus. A total of 500 to 2000 fires occurred in Irkutsk oblast during the last ten years. At an average annual forest fires cover an area of 1 109 hectares on the model territory (Bratsk city). The plane pollutant emission source with a high productivity is formed on the significant forest fire area occurred in a relatively short-term time periods. The increase in hazard ratios was registered for the ingredients of emission-specific industrial enterprises and capable of accumulating in vegetation: carbon disulphide 1.9 times, fluorine-containing substances 1.8 times during the fire. The economic loss of energy resources resulting from reduced production of firewood was estimated at 56.6 million in Irkutsk oblast. The potential risk of negative effects for the respiratory system and cardiovascular system stipulated for the acute inhalation exposure was found to increase on the days, of the fires, as evidenced by the growth of the daily mortality and morbidity rates among the population.

On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe.

PubMed

Turco, Marco; von Hardenberg, Jost; AghaKouchak, Amir; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Provenzale, Antonello; Trigo, Ricardo M

2017-03-06

Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Fire, Fuel Composition and Resilience Threshold in Subalpine Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Blarquez, Olivier; Carcaillet, Christopher

2010-01-01

Background Forecasting the effects of global changes on high altitude ecosystems requires an understanding of the long-term relationships between biota and forcing factors to identify resilience thresholds. Fire is a crucial forcing factor: both fuel build-up from land-abandonment in European mountains, and more droughts linked to global warming are likely to increase fire risks. Methods To assess the vegetation response to fire on a millennium time-scale, we analyzed evidence of stand-to-local vegetation dynamics derived from sedimentary plant macroremains from two subalpine lakes. Paleobotanical reconstructions at high temporal resolution, together with a fire frequency reconstruction inferred from sedimentary charcoal, were analyzed by Superposed Epoch Analysis to model plant behavior before, during and after fire events. Principal Findings We show that fuel build-up from arolla pine (Pinus cembra) always precedes fires, which is immediately followed by a rapid increase of birch (Betula sp.), then by ericaceous species after 25–75 years, and by herbs after 50–100 years. European larch (Larix decidua), which is the natural co-dominant species of subalpine forests with Pinus cembra, is not sensitive to fire, while the abundance of Pinus cembra is altered within a 150-year period after fires. A long-term trend in vegetation dynamics is apparent, wherein species that abound later in succession are the functional drivers, loading the environment with fuel for fires. This system can only be functional if fires are mainly driven by external factors (e.g. climate), with the mean interval between fires being longer than the minimum time required to reach the late successional stage, here 150 years. Conclusion Current global warming conditions which increase drought occurrences, combined with the abandonment of land in European mountain areas, creates ideal ecological conditions for the ignition and the spread of fire. A fire return interval of less than 150 years would threaten the dominant species and might override the resilience of subalpine forests. PMID:20814580

Mortality due to Vegetation Fire-Originated PM2.5 Exposure in Europe-Assessment for the Years 2005 and 2008.

PubMed

Kollanus, Virpi; Prank, Marje; Gens, Alexandra; Soares, Joana; Vira, Julius; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Sofiev, Mikhail; Salonen, Raimo O; Lanki, Timo

2017-01-01

Vegetation fires can release substantial quantities of fine particles (PM2.5), which are harmful to health. The fire smoke may be transported over long distances and can cause adverse health effects over wide areas. We aimed to assess annual mortality attributable to short-term exposures to vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in different regions of Europe. PM2.5 emissions from vegetation fires in Europe in 2005 and 2008 were evaluated based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data on fire radiative power. Atmospheric transport of the emissions was modeled using the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) chemical transport model. Mortality impacts were estimated for 27 European countries based on a) modeled daily PM2.5 concentrations and b) population data, both presented in a 50 × 50 km2 spatial grid; c) an exposure-response function for short-term PM2.5 exposure and daily nonaccidental mortality; and d) country-level data for background mortality risk. In the 27 countries overall, an estimated 1,483 and 1,080 premature deaths were attributable to the vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 in 2005 and 2008, respectively. Estimated impacts were highest in southern and eastern Europe. However, all countries were affected by fire-originated PM2.5, and even the lower concentrations in western and northern Europe contributed substantially (~ 30%) to the overall estimate of attributable mortality. Our assessment suggests that air pollution caused by PM2.5 released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health in Europe. Moreover, the risk can be expected to increase in the future as climate change proceeds. This factor should be taken into consideration when evaluating the overall health and socioeconomic impacts of these fires. Citation: Kollanus V, Prank M, Gens A, Soares J, Vira J, Kukkonen J, Sofiev M, Salonen RO, Lanki T. 2017. Mortality due to vegetation fire-originated PM2.5 exposure in Europe-assessment for the years 2005 and 2008. Environ Health Perspect 125:30-37; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP194.

Geographic Mapping as a Tool for Identifying Communities at High Risk for Fires.

PubMed

Fahey, Erin; Lehna, Carlee; Hanchette, Carol; Coty, Mary-Beth

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether the sample of older adults in a home fire safety (HFS) study captured participants living in the areas at highest risk for fire occurrence. The secondary aim was to identify high risk areas to focus future HFS interventions. Geographic information systems software was used to identify census tracts where study participants resided. Census data for these tracts were compared with participant data based on seven risk factors (ie, age greater than 65 years, nonwhite race, below high school education, low socioeconomic status, rented housing, year home built, home value) previously identified in a fire risk model. The distribution of participants and census tracts among risk categories determined how well higher risk census tracts were sampled. Of the 46 census tracts where the HFS intervention was implemented, 78% (n = 36) were identified as high or severe risk according to the fire risk model. Study participants' means for median annual family income (P < .0001) and median home value (P < .0001) were significantly lower than the census tract means (n = 46), indicating participants were at higher risk of fire occurrence. Of the 92 census tracts identified as high or severe risk in the entire county, the study intervention was implemented in 39% (n = 36), indicating 56 census tracts as potential areas for future HFS interventions. The Geographic information system-based fire risk model is an underutilized but important tool for practice that allows community agencies to develop, plan, and evaluate their outreach efforts and ensure the most effective use of scarce resources.

Managing fire risk during drought: the influence of certification and El Niño on fire-driven forest conversion for oil palm in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noojipady, Praveen; Morton, Douglas C.; Schroeder, Wilfrid; Carlson, Kimberly M.; Huang, Chengquan; Gibbs, Holly K.; Burns, David; Walker, Nathalie F.; Prince, Stephen D.

2017-08-01

Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce sustainable palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance is unclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009, forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident active fire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Niño and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Niño events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75 % and 66 % lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Niño events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification standards with satellite monitoring capabilities will be critical to realize sustainable palm oil production and meet industry commitments to zero deforestation.

Halogenated flame retardants: do the fire safety benefits justify the risks?

PubMed

Shaw, Susan D; Blum, Arlene; Weber, Roland; Kannan, Kurunthachalam; Rich, David; Lucas, Donald; Koshland, Catherine P; Dobraca, Dina; Hanson, Sarah; Birnbaum, Linda S

2010-01-01

Since the 1970s, an increasing number of regulations have expanded the use of brominated and chlorinated flame retardants. Many of these chemicals are now recognized as global contaminants and are associated with adverse health effects in animals and humans, including endocrine and thyroid disruption, immunotoxicity, reproductive toxicity, cancer, and adverse effects on fetal and child development and neurologic function. Some flame retardants such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) have been banned or voluntarily phased out by manufacturers because of their environmental persistence and toxicity, only to be replaced by other organohalogens of unknown toxicity. Despite restrictions on further production in some countries, consumer products previously treated with banned retardants are still in use and continue to release toxic chemicals into the environment, and the worldwide use of organohalogen retardants continues to increase. This paper examines major uses and known toxic effects of commonly-used organohalogen flame retardants, replacements for those that have been phased out, their combustion by-products, and their effectiveness at reducing fire hazard. Policy and other solutions to maintain fire safety while reducing toxicity are suggested. The major conclusions are: (1) Flammability regulations can cause greater adverse environmental and health impacts than fire safety benefits. (2) The current options for end-of-life disposal of products treated with organohalogens retardants are problematic. (3) Life-cycle analyses evaluating benefits and risks should consider the health and environmental effects of the chemicals, as well as their fire safety impacts. (4) Most fire deaths and most fire injuries result from inhaling carbon monoxide, irritant gases, and soot. The incorporation of organohalogens can increase the yield of these toxic by-products during combustion. (5) Fire-safe cigarettes, fire-safe candles, child-resistant lighters, sprinklers, and smoke detectors can prevent fires without the potential adverse effects of flame retardant chemicals. (6) Alternatives to organohalogen flame retardant chemicals include using less flammable materials, design changes, and safer chemicals. To date, before evaluating their health and environmental impacts, many flame retardant chemicals have been produced and used, resulting in high levels of human exposure. As a growing literature continues to find adverse impacts from such chemicals, a more systematic approach to their regulation is needed. Before implementing new flammability standards, decision-makers should evaluate the potential fire safety benefit versus the health and environmental impacts of the chemicals, materials, or technologies likely to be used to meet the standard. Reducing the use of toxic or untested flame retardant chemicals in consumer products can protect human and animal health and the global environment without compromising fire safety.

Mortality and cancer incidence among male volunteer Australian firefighters.

PubMed

Glass, Deborah C; Del Monaco, Anthony; Pircher, Sabine; Vander Hoorn, Stephen; Sim, Malcolm R

2017-09-01

This study aims to investigate mortality and cancer incidence of Australian male volunteer firefighters and of subgroups of firefighters by duration of service, era of first service and the number and type of incidents attended. Participating fire agencies supplied records of individual volunteer firefighters, including incidents attended. The cohort was linked to the Australian National Death Index and Australian Cancer Database. standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) for cancer were calculated. Firefighters were grouped into tertiles by duration of service and by number of incidents attended and relative mortality ratios and relative incidence ratios calculated. Compared with the general population, there were significant decreases in overall cancer incidence and in most major cancer categories. Prostate cancer incidence was increased compared with the general population, but this was not related to the number of incidents attended. Kidney cancer was associated with increased attendance at fires, particularly structural fires.The overall risk of mortality was significantly decreased, and all major causes of death were significantly reduced for volunteer firefighters. There was evidence of an increased mortality from ischaemic heart disease, with increased attendance at fires. Volunteer firefighters have a reduced risk of mortality and cancer incidence compared with the general population, which is likely to be a result of a 'healthy-volunteer' effect and, perhaps, lower smoking rates. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Fire impact and assessment of post-fire actions of a typical Mediterranean forest from SW Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-González, Marco A.; María De la Rosa, José; Jiménez-Morillo, Nicasio T.; Zavala, Lorena M.; Knicker, Heike

2015-04-01

Wildfires may cause significant changes in soil physical and chemical properties. In addition, soil organic matter (SOM) content and chemical properties are usually affected by fire. Fire impacts may negatively affect soil health and quality, and induce or enhance runoff generation and, thereby, soil erosion risk and cause damages to the habitat of species. This fact is especially dramatic in Mediterranean ecosystems, where forest fires are a frequent phenomenon and restoration strategies are a key issue. The goals of this study are to determine: i) the immediate effects of fire on soil properties, including changes occurred in the quantity and quality of SOM and ii) the effect of post-fire actions on soil properties. In August 2012, a wildfire affected a forest area of approx. 90 ha in Montellano (Seville, SW Spain; longitude 37.00 °, latitude -5.56 °). This area is dominated by pines (Pinus pinaster and Pinus halepensis), and eucalypts (Eucaliptus globulus) with a Mediterranean climate. Dominant soil types are Rendzic Leptosols and Calcaric Haplic Regosols. It is a poorly limestone-developed soil (usually swallower than 25 cm). Four soil subsamples were collected 1 month and 25 months after fire within an area of approximately 200 m2. Subsamples were mixed together, homogenized, air-dried, crushed and sieved (2 mm). One control sample was collected in an adjacent area. The litter layer was removed by hand and studied separately. Branches, stems, bushes and plant residues on the fire-affected area were removed 16 months after the fire using heavy machinery as part of the post-fire management. The present research focuses on the study of the elemental composition (C, H and N) and physical properties (pH, water holding capacity, electrical conductivity) of bulk soil samples, and on the spectroscopic analysis (FT-IR, 13C NMR) and analytical pyrolysis data obtained from bulk the oils and from the humic acid fraction. immediate effects of fire, including the charring of vegetation and litter, as the input of charred residues may contribute to increase the total amount of soil organic matter. The post-fire removal of vegetation probably contributed to an additional loss of soil material due to an increase of the erosion risk. In addition, preliminary results point out that the burnt soil is not being recovered to the pre-fire conditions at a molecular level neither in the elemental composition. Results of this study will constitute a valuable tool for stake holders and decision makers to avoid additional alterations caused by post fire management of fire affected forests.

77 FR 10576 - Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-22

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0295] Methodology for Low Power/Shutdown Fire PRA AGENCY.../Shutdown Fire PRA.'' In response to request from members of the public, the NRC is extending the public... risk assessment (PRA) method for quantitatively analyzing fire risk in commercial nuclear power plants...

Managing the Library Fire Risk.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morris, John

A discussion of fire risks, causes, prevention, and salvage in libraries is presented in text and photographs. A description of some historic library fires demonstrates the value of adequate protection and preparedness programs to minimize loss and damage. The need for fire retardant construction and protection from valdalism and arson are…

Empirical Estimates of Tree Carbon Storage Over a Century due to Fire Reduction in California Montane Conifer Forests.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouldin, J.

2008-12-01

Fire reduction policies are globally widespread and cause large changes in natural disturbance regimes. They should affect C accrual rates, but there is uncertainty in both modeling- and empirically-based estimates on the rate, and sometimes even the sign thereof, due to a lack of high quality data and to the confounding by logging or other ecological changes. Here I present data on tree density and C stock changes over 93 years from a never-logged, mid-montane (1370 to 2130 m) landscape in the central Sierra Nevada, California. Literature-based mean pre-1870 fire return intervals in the region were on the order of 8 to 20 years, but declined precipitously afterwards. The area was originally sampled without bias in 1911, and in 2004 I randomly re-sampled 20 1.6 ha plots in the area. I found very large increases in tree density and tree C, with mean tree densities increasing in each of 13 diameter classes. Total density increased from 54 to 289 trees per ha (530 percent); the smallest diameter class increased 1100 percent while progressively larger classes had smaller relative increases. Allometrically estimated increases in tree C across the size classes were more uniform, and total tree C, excluding fine roots, increased from 100 to 228 Mg C per ha. These values very likely underestimate ecosystem C gain, because likely increases in snags, down logs, small trees, shrubs, and forest litter and duff are not included. Also, sheep grazing likely hampered regeneration in the few decades following initial fire declines, and recent controlled burns in 65 percent of the plots have likely reduced C levels somewhat. In many Sierran locations, controlled burns are now quite risky due to increased fuel loads and the consequent risk of historically unnatural catastrophic crown fires. Such fires instantly release very high C amounts and continue to emit C for many years due to dead wood decomposition and increased soil respiration. There is also a substantial risk of permanent conversion to shrub dominated systems in a warmer dryer climate, as forests and shrublands comprise a climatically-determined unstable equilibrium in the Sierra. These results are important relative to GHG reduction and land management policies in landscapes naturally prone to burning.

Demographic controls of future global fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

2016-08-01

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

Fire danger assessment using ECMWF weather prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Pappemberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik

2015-04-01

Weather plays a major role in the birth, growth and death of a wildfire wherever there is availability of combustible vegetation and suitable terrain topography. Prolonged dry periods creates favourable conditions for ignitions, wind can then increase the fire spread, while higher relative humidity, and precipitation (rain or snow) may decrease or extinguish it altogether. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), started in 2011 under the lead of the European Joint Research Centre (JRC) to monitor and forecast fire danger and fire behaviour in Europe. In 2012 a collaboration with the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) was established to explore the potential of using state of the art weather forecast systems as driving forcing for the calculations of fire risk indices. From this collaboration in 2013 the EC-fire system was born. It implements the three most commonly used fire danger rating systems (NFDRS, FWI and MARK-5) and it is both initialised and forced by gridded atmospheric fields provided either by ECMWF re-analysis or ECMWF ensemble prediction systems. For consistency invariant fields (i.e fuel maps, vegetation cover, topogarphy) and real-time weather information are all provided on the same grid. Similarly global climatological vegetation stage conditions for each day of the year are provided by remote satellite observations. These climatological static maps substitute the traditional man judgement in an effort to create an automated procedure that can work in places where local observations are not available. The system has been in operation for the last year providing an ensemble of daily forecasts for fire indices with lead-times up to 10 days over Europe and Globally. An important part of the system is provided by its (re)-analysis dataset obtained by using the (re)-analysis forcings as drivers to calculate the fire risk indices. This is a crucial part of the whole chain since these fields are used to establish the initial conditions from which the forecast is subsequently run. The reanalysis dataset goes back to year 1980 (the starting year of ERA-Interim integrations) and is updated in quasi real time. In addition of providing the staring point for the operational forecasts it is a very useful dataset for the scope of calibration and verification of the system. Assuming reanalysis fields are good proxies for observations then, by comparison with fire events which really occurred, this dataset can be used to assess the potential predictability of fire risk indices. In this work we will introduce the EC-fire system. Then the reanalysis dataset will be used to identify regions of high fire risk predictability and where the system might be in need of further refinement.

40-years of fires in a touristic area from South of Spain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Murillo, Juan F.; Aranda-Gómez, Francisco; Damián Ruiz-Sinoga, José

2014-05-01

Costa del Sol in the Province of Malaga is one of the major touristic region in Spain. Its develop started in the 1960s of the XXth century at the same time as other regions in Mediterranean Europe. Since then, this area has become a holiday touristic centre for different countries and regions from Europe (United Kingdom, Escandinavia, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, etc.). Likewise, Costa del Sol has been characterised by a constant grow of the residence tourism rendering in an extreme increment of urban areas, especially in those municipalities located in the coast. This expansión of urban áreas was carried out against rural and natural vegetated areas. The region is characterised by very montanious topography, predominant impermeable rocks (shales, schists and peridotites) and abundant rainfalls from October to May, especially, in the western area (where a climatic gradient is observed from humid to dry conditions). All of these features, joined a very spread and intense occupation by urban, infrastructures and touristic land uses, renders in a very high vulnerability to fires and their consequences. As fire removes vegetation cover and accelerate water erosion, local relief and climatic conditions induce to extreme high risk of soil loss and floodings. During the last 40 years, in the study area, the number of fires increased as weell as the affected area, following the similar trend for the rest of Spain and other Mediterranean countries. This situation increases the exposition to fire risk for more than one-million of people, which become at least two-millions during the summer months when fire conditions are expected.

Studying fire mitigation strategies in multi-ownership landscapes: balancing the management of fire-dependent ecosystems and fire risk

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Brian R. Miranda; Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson; Robert M. Scheller

2009-01-01

Public forests are surrounded by land over which agency managers have no control, and whose owners expect the public forest to be a "good neighbor." Fire risk abatement on multi-owner landscapes containing flammable but fire-dependent ecosystems epitomizes the complexities of managing public lands. We report a case study that applies a landscape disturbance...

Wildfire seasonality and land use: when do wildfires prefer to burn?

PubMed

Bajocco, Sofia; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris; Mazzoleni, Stefano; Ricotta, Carlo

2010-05-01

Because of the increasing anthropogenic fire activity, understanding the role of land-use in shaping wildfire regimes has become a major concern. In the last decade, an increasing number of studies have been carried out on the relationship between land-use and wildfire patterns, in order to identify land-use types where fire behaves selectively, showing a marked preference (or avoidance) in terms of fire incidence. By contrast, the temporal aspects of the relationship between landuse types and wildfire occurrence have received far less attention. The aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the period 2000-2006 to identify land-use types where wildfires occur earlier or later than expected from a random null model. The study highlighted a close relationship between the timing of fire occurrence and land-cover that is primarily governed by two complementary processes: climatic factors that act indirectly on the timing of wildfires determining the spatial distribution of land-use types, and human population and human pressure that directly influence fire ignition. From a practical viewpoint, understanding the temporal trends of wildfires within the different land-use classes can be an effective decision-support tool for fire agencies in managing fire risk and for producing provisional models of fire behavior under changing climatic scenarios and evolving landscapes.

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific.

PubMed

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires.

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia, South Pacific

PubMed Central

Gomez, Céline; Mangeas, Morgan; Curt, Thomas; Ibanez, Thomas; Munzinger, Jérôme; Dumas, Pascal; Jérémy, André; Despinoy, Marc; Hély, Christelle

2015-01-01

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one-off event model and a multi-event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic-free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one-off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one-off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires. PMID:25691965

The largest forest fires in Portugal: the constraints of burned area size on the comprehension of fire severity.

PubMed

Tedim, Fantina; Remelgado, Ruben; Martins, João; Carvalho, Salete

2015-01-01

Portugal is a European country with highest forest fires density and burned area. Since beginning of official forest fires database in 1980, an increase in number of fires and burned area as well as appearance of large and catastrophic fires have characterized fire activity in Portugal. In 1980s, the largest fires were just a little bit over 10,000 ha. However, in the beginning of 21st century several fires occurred with a burned area over 20,000 ha. Some of these events can be classified as mega-fires due to their ecological and socioeconomic severity. The present study aimed to discuss the characterization of large forest fires trend, in order to understand if the largest fires that occurred in Portugal were exceptional events or evidences of a new trend, and the constraints of fire size to characterize fire effects because, usually, it is assumed that larger the fire higher the damages. Using Portuguese forest fire database and satellite imagery, the present study showed that the largest fires could be seen at the same time as exceptional events and as evidence of a new fire regime. It highlighted the importance of size and patterns of unburned patches within fire perimeter as well as heterogeneity of fire ecological severity, usually not included in fire regime description, which are critical to fire management and research. The findings of this research can be used in forest risk reduction and suppression planning.

Skin antiseptics and the risk of operating theatre fires.

PubMed

Spigelman, Allan D; Swan, Judith R

2005-07-01

Following press reports of patients catching fire or receiving chemical burns in the operating theatre, a review was conducted on the flammability of skin antiseptics. The purpose of the paper was to clarify confusion regarding povidine-iodine (Betadine), which had been reported as being flammable, and also to determine the use of alcohol-based solutions in the Hunter Area Health Service. A risk assessment was conducted and risk reduction strategies outlined. Risk assessment was made following a literature review and an audit of 10 operating theatres in the Hunter Area Health Service. Risk for operating room fires from alcohol-based skin antiseptics was confirmed. Antiseptics in aqueous solutions only smoulder. The Hunter Health survey indicated that although alcohol-based solutions were not used in operating theatres, they were used in anaesthetic bays for insertion of epidural and central line catheters. Strategies to reduce the risk of fire include discontinuation of use of alcohol-based skin antiseptics in operating theatres; using fire retardant surgical drapes; installing over-current protection devices on electrical equipment; minimizing flammable conditions by avoiding nitrous oxide and using the lowest required concentration of inspired oxygen; use of non-flammable cuffed endotracheal tubes; education and training of operating theatre personnel in fire hazards. Operating theatre fires continue to be a major risk for patient safety. In order to reduce this risk, the strategies outlined here should be followed.

40 CFR 1074.105 - Criteria for granting authorization.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... horsepower, the Administrator will give appropriate consideration to safety factors (including the potential increased risk of burn or fire) associated with compliance with the California standard. ...

40 CFR 1074.105 - Criteria for granting authorization.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... horsepower, the Administrator will give appropriate consideration to safety factors (including the potential increased risk of burn or fire) associated with compliance with the California standard. ...

Estimating vegetation dryness to optimize fire risk assessment with spot vegetation satellite data in savanna ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbesselt, J.; Somers, B.; Lhermitte, S.; van Aardt, J.; Jonckheere, I.; Coppin, P.

2005-10-01

The lack of information on vegetation dryness prior to the use of fire as a management tool often leads to a significant deterioration of the savanna ecosystem. This paper therefore evaluated the capacity of SPOT VEGETATION time-series to monitor the vegetation dryness (i.e., vegetation moisture content per vegetation amount) in order to optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystem of Kruger National Park in South Africa. The integrated Relative Vegetation Index approach (iRVI) to quantify the amount of herbaceous biomass at the end of the rain season and the Accumulated Relative Normalized Difference vegetation index decrement (ARND) related to vegetation moisture content were selected. The iRVI and ARND related to vegetation amount and moisture content, respectively, were combined in order to monitor vegetation dryness and optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystems. In situ fire activity data was used to evaluate the significance of the iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness for fire risk assessment. Results from the binary logistic regression analysis confirmed that the assessment of fire risk was optimized by integration of both the vegetation quantity (iRVI) and vegetation moisture content (ARND) as statistically significant explanatory variables. Consequently, the integrated use of both iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness provides a more suitable tool for fire management and suppression compared to other traditional satellite-based fire risk assessment methods, only related to vegetation moisture content.

Fire safety in the operating room.

PubMed

Rinder, Christine Stowe

2008-12-01

Elimination of flammable anesthetic gases has had little effect on operating-room fires except to change their etiology. Electrocautery and lasers, in an oxygen-enriched environment, can ignite even the most fire-resistant materials, including the patient, and the fire triad possibilities in the operating room are nearly limitless. This review will: identify operating room contents capable of acting as ignition/oxidizer/fuel sources, highlight operating room items that are uniquely potent fire triad contributors, and operating room identify settings where fire risk is enhanced by proximity of triad components in time or space. Anesthesiologists are cognizant of the risk of airway surgery fires due to laser ignition of the endotracheal tube and/or its contents. Recently, however, head/neck surgery under monitored anesthesia care has emerged as a high-risk setting for operating room fires; burn injuries represent 20% of monitored anesthesia care-related malpractice claims, 95% of which involved head/neck surgery. Operating room fires are infrequent but catastrophic. Operating room fire prevention depends on: (a)understanding how fire triad elements interact to create a fire, (b) recognizing how standard operating-room equipment, materials, and supplemental oxygen can become one of those elements, and (c) vigilance for circumstances that bring fire triad elements into close proximity.

El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Marlier, Miriam E; DeFries, Ruth S; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L; Randerson, James T; Shindell, Drew T; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg

2013-01-01

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality 1 . In this study, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modeling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in Southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity due to coupling between El Niño-induced droughts and anthropogenic land use change 2,3 . We show that during strong El Niño years, fires contribute up to 200 μg/m 3 and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and ozone (O 3 ) surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization (WHO) 50 μg/m 3 24-hour PM 2.5 interim target (IT-2) 4 and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300) person (~2%) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity, and maintaining ecosystem services.

El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; Defries, Ruth S.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L.; Randerson, James T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg

2013-02-01

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Niño-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Niño years, fires contribute up to 200μgm-3 and 50ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50μgm-3 24-hr PM2.5 interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (~ 2%) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.

El Nino and Health Risks from Landscape Fire Emissions in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; Defries, Ruth S.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Kinney, Patrick L.; Randerson, James T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Chen, Yang; Faluvegi, Greg

2013-01-01

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Nino-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Nino years, fires contribute up to 200 micrograms per cubic meter and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50 micrograms per cubic metre 24-hr PM(sub 2.5) interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (approximately 2 percent) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.

Satellite-based Assessment of Climate Controls on US Burned Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.; Wang, D.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.; Chen, Y.

2012-01-01

Climate regulates fire activity through the buildup and drying of fuels and the conditions for fire ignition and spread. Understanding the dynamics of contemporary climate-fire relationships at national and sub-national scales is critical to assess the likelihood of changes in future fire activity and the potential options for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we conducted the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997 2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984 2009) BA products. For each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region, we analyzed the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5 resolution. US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions. Monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally. Fire season temperature and shortwave radiation were the primary controls on PE and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US. BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6 12 months). Fire season PE in creased from the 1980s 2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest. Spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s 2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades. However, climatefire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region. Changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity.

Fire risk in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Seth Howard

Fire is an integral part of ecosystems in the western United States. Decades of fire suppression have led to (unnaturally) large accumulations of fuel in some forest communities, such as the lower elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada. Urban sprawl into fire prone chaparral vegetation in southern California has put human lives at risk and the decreased fire return intervals have put the vegetation community at risk of type conversion. This research examines the factors affecting fire risk in two of the dominant landscapes in the state of California, chaparral and inland coniferous forests. Live fuel moisture (LFM) is important for fire ignition, spread rate, and intensity in chaparral. LFM maps were generated for Los Angeles County by developing and then inverting robust cross-validated regression equations from time series field data and vegetation indices (VIs) and phenological metrics from MODIS data. Fire fuels, including understory fuels which are not visible to remote sensing instruments, were mapped in Yosemite National Park using the random forests decision tree algorithm and climatic, topographic, remotely sensed, and fire history variables. Combining the disparate data sources served to improve classification accuracies. The models were inverted to produce maps of fuel models and fuel amounts, and these showed that fire fuel amounts are highest in the low elevation forests that have been most affected by fire suppression impacting the natural fire regime. Wildland fires in chaparral commonly burn in late summer or fall when LFM is near its annual low, however, the Jesusita Fire burned in early May of 2009, when LFM was still relatively high. The HFire fire spread model was used to simulate the growth of the Jesusita Fire using LFM maps derived from imagery acquired at the time of the fire and imagery acquired in late August to determine how much different the fire would have been if it had occurred later in the year. Simulated fires were 1.5 times larger, and the fire reached the wildland urban interface three hours earlier, when using August LFM.

Broadleaf deciduous forest counterbalanced the direct effect of climate on Holocene fire regime in hemiboreal/boreal region (NE Europe)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feurdean, Angelica; Veski, Siim; Florescu, Gabriela; Vannière, Boris; Pfeiffer, Mirjam; O'Hara, Robert B.; Stivrins, Normunds; Amon, Leeli; Heinsalu, Atko; Vassiljev, Jüri; Hickler, Thomas

2017-08-01

Disturbances by fire are essential for the functioning of boreal/hemiboreal forests, but knowledge of long-term fire regime dynamics is limited. We analysed macrocharcoal morphologies and pollen of a sediment record from Lake Lielais Svētiņu (eastern Latvia), and in conjunction with fire traits analysis present the first record of Holocene variability in fire regime, fuel sources and fire types in boreal forests of the Baltic region. We found a phase of moderate to high fire activity during the cool and moist early (mean fire return interval; mFRI of ∼280 years; 11,700-7500 cal yr BP) and the late (mFRI of ∼190 years; 4500-0 cal yr BP) Holocene and low fire activity (mFRI of ∼630 years) during the Holocene Thermal Optimum (7500-4500 cal yr BP). Charcoal morphotypes and the pollen record show the predominance of frequent surface fires, occasionally transitioning to the crown during Pinus sylvestris-Betula boreal forests and less frequent surface fires during the dominance of temperate deciduous forests. In contrast to the prevailing opinion that fires in boreal forests are mostly low to moderate severity surface fires, we found evidence for common occurrence of stand-replacing crown fires in Picea abies canopy. Our results highlight that charcoal morphotypes analysis allows for distinguishing the fuel types and surface from crown fires, therefore significantly advancing our interpretation of fire regime. Future warmer temperatures and increase in the frequency of dry spells and abundant biomass accumulation can enhance the fire risk on the one hand, but will probably promote the expansion of broadleaf deciduous forests to higher latitudes, on the other hand. By highlighting the capability of broadleaf deciduous forests to act as fire-suppressing landscape elements, our results suggest that fire activity may not increase in the Baltic area under future climate change.

Wild Fire Risk Map in the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag

2016-06-01

Grassland fire is a cause of major disturbance to ecosystems and economies throughout the world. This paper investigated to identify risk zone of wildfire distributions on the Eastern Steppe of Mongolia. The study selected variables for wildfire risk assessment using a combination of data collection, including Social Economic, Climate, Geographic Information Systems, Remotely sensed imagery, and statistical yearbook information. Moreover, an evaluation of the result is used field validation data and assessment. The data evaluation resulted divided by main three group factors Environmental, Social Economic factor, Climate factor and Fire information factor into eleven input variables, which were classified into five categories by risk levels important criteria and ranks. All of the explanatory variables were integrated into spatial a model and used to estimate the wildfire risk index. Within the index, five categories were created, based on spatial statistics, to adequately assess respective fire risk: very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low and very low. Approximately more than half, 68 percent of the study area was predicted accuracy to good within the very high, high risk and moderate risk zones. The percentages of actual fires in each fire risk zone were as follows: very high risk, 42 percent; high risk, 26 percent; moderate risk, 13 percent; low risk, 8 percent; and very low risk, 11 percent. The main overall accuracy to correct prediction from the model was 62 percent. The model and results could be support in spatial decision making support system processes and in preventative wildfire management strategies. Also it could be help to improve ecological and biodiversity conservation management.

Assessment of multi-wildfire occurrence data for machine learning based risk modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, C. H.; Kim, M.; Kim, S. J.; Yoo, S.; Lee, W. K.

2017-12-01

The occurrence of East Asian wildfires is mainly caused by human-activities, but the extreme drought increased due to the climate change caused wildfires and they spread to large-scale fires. Accurate occurrence location data is required for modelling wildfire probability and risk. In South Korea, occurrence data surveyed through KFS (Korea Forest Service) and MODIS (MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite-based active fire data can be utilized. In this study, two sorts of wildfire occurrence data were applied to select suitable occurrence data for machine learning based wildfire risk modelling. MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model based on machine learning is used for wildfire risk modelling, and two types of occurrence data and socio-economic and climate-environment data are applied to modelling. In the results with KFS survey based data, the low relationship was shown with climate-environmental factors, and the uncertainty of coordinate information appeared. The MODIS-based active fire data were found outside the forests, and there were a lot of spots that did not match the actual wildfires. In order to utilize MODIS-based active fire data, it was necessary to extract forest area and utilize only high-confidence level data. In KFS data, it was necessary to separate the analysis according to the damage scale to improve the modelling accuracy. Ultimately, it is considered to be the best way to simulate the wildfire risk by constructing more accurate information by combining two sorts of wildfire occurrence data.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, Dave E

2011-08-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Managing Fire Risk During Drought: The Influence of Certification and El Nino on Fire-Driven Forest Conversion for Oil Palm in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noojipady, Praveen; Morton, Douglas C.; Schroeder, Wilfrid; Carlson, Kimberly M.; Huang, Chengquan; Gibbs, Holly K.; Burns, David; Walker, Nathalie F.; Prince, Stephen D.

2017-01-01

Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce "sustainable" palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance isunclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009,forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident activefire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Nino and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Nino events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75% and 66% lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Nino events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification standards with satellite monitoring capabilities will be critical to realize sustainable palm oil production and meet industry commitments to zero forestation.

Effects of Mountain Pine Beetle on Fuels and Expected Fire Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA

PubMed Central

Schoennagel, Tania; Veblen, Thomas T.; Negron, José F.; Smith, Jeremy M.

2012-01-01

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [∼30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior. PMID:22272268

An evaluation of image based techniques for wildfire detection and fuel mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabbert, Dustin W.

Few events can cause the catastrophic impact to ecology, infrastructure, and human safety of a wildland fire along the wildland urban interface. The suppression of natural wildland fires over the past decade has caused a buildup of dry, dead surface fuels: a condition that, coupled with the right weather conditions, can cause large destructive wildfires that are capable of threatening both ancient tree stands and manmade infrastructure. Firefighters use fire danger models to determine staffing needs on high fire risk days; however models are only as effective as the spatial and temporal density of their observations. OKFIRE, an Oklahoma initiative created by a partnership between Oklahoma State University and the University of Oklahoma, has proven that fire danger assessments close to the fire - both geographically and temporally - can give firefighters a significant increase in their situational awareness while fighting a wildland fire. This paper investigates several possible solutions for a small Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) which could gather information useful for detecting ground fires and constructing fire danger maps. Multiple fire detection and fuel mapping programs utilize satellites, manned aircraft, and large UAS equipped with hyperspectral sensors to gather useful information. Their success provides convincing proof of the utility that could be gained from low-altitude UAS gathering information at the exact time and place firefighters and land managers are interested in. Close proximity, both geographically and operationally, to the end can reduce latency times below what could ever be possible with satellite observation. This paper expands on recent advances in computer vision, photogrammetry, and infrared and color imagery to develop a framework for a next-generation UAS which can assess fire danger and aid firefighters in real time as they observe, contain, or extinguish wildland fires. It also investigates the impact information gained by this system could have on pre-fire risk assessments through the development of very high resolution fuel maps.

An Evaluation of Image Based Techniques for Early Wildfire Detection and Fuel Mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gabbert, Dustin W.

Few events can cause the catastrophic impact to ecology, infrastructure, and human safety of a wildland fire along the wildland urban interface. The suppression of natural wildland fires over the past decade has caused a buildup of dry, dead surface fuels: a condition that, coupled with the right weather conditions, can cause large destructive wildfires that are capable of threatening both ancient tree stands and manmade infrastructure. Firefighters use fire danger models to determine staffing needs on high fire risk days; however models are only as effective as the spatial and temporal density of their observations. OKFIRE, an Oklahoma initiativemore » created by a partnership between Oklahoma State University and the University of Oklahoma, has proven that fire danger assessments close to the fire – both geographically and temporally – can give firefighters a significant increase in their situational awareness while fighting a wildland fire. This paper investigates several possible solutions for a small Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) which could gather information useful for detecting ground fires and constructing fire danger maps. Multiple fire detection and fuel mapping programs utilize satellites, manned aircraft, and large UAS equipped with hyperspectral sensors to gather useful information. Their success provides convincing proof of the utility that could be gained from low-altitude UAS gathering information at the exact time and place firefighters and land managers are interested in. Close proximity, both geographically and operationally, to the end can reduce latency times below what could ever be possible with satellite observation. This paper expands on recent advances in computer vision, photogrammetry, and infrared and color imagery to develop a framework for a next-generation UAS which can assess fire danger and aid firefighters in real time as they observe, contain, or extinguish wildland fires. It also investigates the impact information gained by this system could have on pre-fire risk assessments through the development of very high resolution fuel maps.« less

Risk Factors for Rural Residential Fires

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allareddy, Veerasathpurush; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen; Zwerling, Craig

2007-01-01

Context and Purpose: Rural households report high fire-related mortality and injury rates, but few studies have examined the risk factors for fires. This study aims to identify occupant and household characteristics that are associated with residential fires in a rural cohort. Methods: Of 1,005 households contacted in a single rural county, 691…

Using risk analysis to reveal opportunities for the management of unplanned ignitions in wilderness

Treesearch

Kevin Barnett; Carol Miller; Tyron J. Venn

2016-01-01

A goal of fire management in wilderness is to allow fire to play its natural ecological role without intervention. Unfortunately, most unplanned ignitions in wilderness are suppressed, in part because of the risk they might pose to values outside of the wilderness. We capitalize on recent advances in fire risk analysis to demonstrate a risk-based approach for revealing...

Development at the wildland-urban interface and the mitigation of forest-fire risk.

PubMed

Spyratos, Vassilis; Bourgeron, Patrick S; Ghil, Michael

2007-09-04

This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.

Interactive effects of historical logging and fire exclusion on ponderosa pine forest structure in the northern Rockies.

PubMed

Naficy, Cameron; Sala, Anna; Keeling, Eric G; Graham, Jon; DeLuca, Thomas H

2010-10-01

Increased forest density resulting from decades of fire exclusion is often perceived as the leading cause of historically aberrant, severe, contemporary wildfires and insect outbreaks documented in some fire-prone forests of the western United States. Based on this notion, current U.S. forest policy directs managers to reduce stand density and restore historical conditions in fire-excluded forests to help minimize high-severity disturbances. Historical logging, however, has also caused widespread change in forest vegetation conditions, but its long-term effects on vegetation structure and composition have never been adequately quantified. We document that fire-excluded ponderosa pine forests of the northern Rocky Mountains logged prior to 1960 have much higher average stand density, greater homogeneity of stand structure, more standing dead trees and increased abundance of fire-intolerant trees than paired fire-excluded, unlogged counterparts. Notably, the magnitude of the interactive effect of fire exclusion and historical logging substantially exceeds the effects of fire exclusion alone. These differences suggest that historically logged sites are more prone to severe wildfires and insect outbreaks than unlogged, fire-excluded forests and should be considered a high priority for fuels reduction treatments. Furthermore, we propose that ponderosa pine forests with these distinct management histories likely require distinct restoration approaches. We also highlight potential long-term risks of mechanical stand manipulation in unlogged forests and emphasize the need for a long-term view of fuels management.

Risk of post-fire metal mobilization into surface water resources: A review.

PubMed

Abraham, Joji; Dowling, Kim; Florentine, Singarayer

2017-12-01

One of the significant economic benefits to communities around the world of having pristine forest catchments is the supply of substantial quantities of high quality potable water. This supports a saving of around US$ 4.1 trillion per year globally by limiting the cost of expensive drinking water treatments and provision of unnecessary infrastructure. Even low levels of contaminants specifically organics and metals in catchments when in a mobile state can reduce these economic benefits by seriously affecting the water quality. Contamination and contaminant mobility can occur through natural and anthropogenic activities including forest fires. Moderate to high intensity forest fires are able to alter soil properties and release sequestered metals from sediments, soil organic matter and fragments of vegetation. In addition, the increase in post-fire erosion rate by rainfall runoff and strong winds facilitates the rapid transport of these metals downslope and downstream. The subsequent metal deposition in distal soil and water bodies can influence surface water quality with potential impacts to the larger ecosystems inclusive of negative effects on humans. This is of substantial concern as 4 billion hectares of forest catchments provide high quality water to global communities. Redressing this problem requires quantification of the potential effects on water resources and instituting rigorous fire and environmental management plans to mitigate deleterious effects on catchment areas. This paper is a review of the current state of the art literature dealing with the risk of post-fire mobilization of the metals into surface water resources. It is intended to inform discussion on the preparation of suitable management plans and policies during and after fire events in order to maintain potable water quality in a cost-effective manner. In these times of climate fluctuation and increased incidence of fires, the need for development of new policies and management frameworks are of heighted significance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The efficacy of salvage logging in reducing subsequent fire severity in conifer-dominated forests of Minnesota, U.S.A.

PubMed

Fraver, Shawn; Jain, Theresa; Bradford, John B; D'Amato, Anthony W; Kastendick, Doug; Palik, Brian; Shinneman, Doug; Stanovick, John

2011-09-01

Although primarily used to mitigate economic losses following disturbance, salvage logging has also been justified on the basis of reducing fire risk and fire severity; however, its ability to achieve these secondary objectives remains unclear. The patchiness resulting from a sequence of recent disturbances-blowdown, salvage logging, and wildfire-provided an excellent opportunity to assess the impacts of blowdown and salvage logging on wildfire severity. We used two fire-severity assessments (tree-crown and forest-floor characteristics) to compare post-wildfire conditions among three treatment combinations (Blowdown-Salvage-Fire, Blowdown-Fire, and Fire only). Our results suggest that salvage logging reduced the intensity (heat released) of the subsequent fire. However, its effect on severity (impact to the system) differed between the tree crowns and forest floor: tree-crown indices suggest that salvage logging decreased fire severity (albeit with modest statistical support), while forest-floor indices suggest that salvage logging increased fire severity. We attribute the latter finding to the greater exposure of mineral soil caused by logging operations; once exposed, soils are more likely to register the damaging effects of fire, even if fire intensity is not extreme. These results highlight the important distinction between fire intensity and severity when formulating post-disturbance management prescriptions.

The efficacy of salvage logging in reducing subsequent fire severity in conifer-dominated forests of Minnesota, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fraver, S.; Jain, T.; Bradford, J.B.; D'Amato, A.W.; Kastendick, D.; Palik, B.; Shinneman, D.; Stanovick, J.

2011-01-01

Although primarily used to mitigate economic losses following disturbance, salvage logging has also been justified on the basis of reducing fire risk and fire severity; however, its ability to achieve these secondary objectives remains unclear. The patchiness resulting from a sequence of recent disturbances-blowdown, salvage logging, and ildfire- provided an excellent opportunity to assess the impacts of blowdown and salvage logging on wildfire severity. We used two fire-severity assessments (tree-crown and forest-floor characteristics) to compare post-wildfire conditions among three treatment combinations (Blowdown-Salvage-Fire, Blowdown-Fire, and Fire only). Our results suggest that salvage logging reduced the intensity (heat released) of the subsequent fire. However, its effect on severity (impact to the system) differed between the tree crowns and forest floor: tree-crown indices suggest that salvage logging decreased fire severity (albeit with modest statistical support), while forest-floor indices suggest that salvage logging increased fire severity. We attribute the latter finding to the greater exposure of mineral soil caused by logging operations; once exposed, soils are more likely to register the damaging effects of fire, even if fire intensity is not extreme. These results highlight the important distinction between fire intensity and severity when formulating post-disturbance management prescriptions. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Estimation of the Forest Fire Risk in Indonesia based on Satellite Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, H.; Takahashi, Y.; Hashimoto, A.; Akita, M.; Hasegawa, Y.; Ogino, Y.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.

2016-12-01

To minimize forest fires in tropical area is extremely important, because the fire has a large impact on global warming, biodiversity, and human society. In the previous study, Shimada and Ishibashi monitored the ground-water lever from the value of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained in Kalimantan Island to predict where the forest fires will happen. We have developed a method to map the forest fire risk by calculating the value of Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index 2 (MSAVI2). Moreover, we investigated the relation between the distance from a road as an artificial factor and the occurrence of the fire.First, calculating the MSAVI2 from Landsat 7 and 8 images of August, 2015 around Martapura in South Sumatra, Indonesia, we mapped the area where the plants were stressed. Next, we checked the degrees of matching between the area of low MSAVI2 and the forest fire points.As a result, half of the fires happened in the area having the MSAVI2 values of 0.20 to 0.35. When we focused on only the area which is over 5 kilometers far from a road, the degrees of matching became higher; it rose up to 62 percent.Those results indicate that the fire risks relate to the dry area calculated as low MSAVI2 in the case with less human activities. We need to consider an effect of artificial factors to estimate the whole risk of forest fire.In conclusion, the map of forest fire risk by calculating the value of MSAVI2 is applicable to an area with less artificial factor, while we have to take the effect of artificial fire factor into the consideration.

The effects of hazardous fuel reduction treatments in the wildland urban interface on the activity of bark beetles infesting ponderosa pine

Treesearch

Christopher J. Fettig; Joel D. McMillin; John. A. Anhold; Shakeeb M. Hamud; Steven J. Seybold; Robert R. Borys

2008-01-01

(Please note, this is an abstract only) Selective logging, fire suppression, forest succession, and climatic changes have resulted in high fire hazards over large areas of the western United States. Federal and state hazardous fuel reduction programs have increased accordingly to reduce the risk, extent and severity of these events, particularly in the wildland urban...

The effect of mechanical fuel reduction treatments in the wildland-urban interface on the amount and distribution of bark beetle-caused tree mortality

Treesearch

Christopher J. Fettig; Joel D. McMillin; John A. Anhold; Shakeeb M. Hamud; Robert R. Borys; Steven J. Seybold

2007-01-01

Selective logging, fire suppression, forest succession, and climatic changes have resulted in high fire hazards over large areas of the western USA. Federal and state hazardous fuel reduction programs have increased accordingly to reduce the risk, extent and severity of these events, particularly in the wildland urban interface. In this study, we examined the effect of...

Which subgroups of fire fighters are more prone to work-related diminished health requirements?

PubMed

Plat, Marie-Christine J; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Sluiter, Judith K

2012-10-01

To determine whether certain subgroups of fire fighters are prone to work-related diminished health requirements. The health requirements for fire-fighting were tested in a workers' health surveillance (WHS) setting. These health requirements included psychological, physical and sense-related components as well as cardiovascular risk factors. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for the presence of the diminished health requirements were calculated for the subgroups of gender, professionalism and age. The prevalence of diminished psychological requirements was equivalent among the subgroups, and no significant high-risk group was identified. As compared to men fire fighters, women fire fighters were more likely to have diminished physical requirements (OR 28.5; 95% CI 12.1-66.9) and less likely to have cardiovascular risk factors (OR 0.3; 0.1-0.5). As compared to volunteer fire fighters, professionals were less likely to have diminished physical requirements (OR 0.5; 0.3-0.9), but professionals had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors with an odds ratio of 1.9 (1.1-3.2). As compared to the youngest fire fighters, the oldest fire fighters were more likely to have diminished sense-related requirements (OR 7.1; 3.4-15.2); a similar comparison could be made between oldest and middle-aged fire fighters (OR 5.1; 2.5-10.5). In addition, the oldest fire fighters were more likely to have cardiovascular risk factors when compared to the youngest (OR 4.4; 1.7-11.1) and to the middle-aged fire fighters (OR 3.1; 1.2-7.9). Subgroups (gender, professionalism and age) of fire fighters are prone to at least one specific work-related diminished health requirement. Therefore, parts of the WHS could be applied with more attention to these high-risk groups.

Community Vulnerability to Health Impacts of Wildland Fire Smoke Exposure.

PubMed

Rappold, Ana G; Reyes, Jeanette; Pouliot, George; Cascio, Wayne E; Diaz-Sanchez, David

2017-06-20

Identifying communities vulnerable to adverse health effects from exposure to wildfire smoke may help prepare responses, increase the resilience to smoke and improve public health outcomes during smoke days. We developed a Community Health-Vulnerability Index (CHVI) based on factors known to increase the risks of health effects from air pollution and wildfire smoke exposures. These factors included county prevalence rates for asthma in children and adults, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, percent of population 65 years of age and older, and indicators of socioeconomic status including poverty, education, income and unemployment. Using air quality simulated for the period between 2008 and 2012 over the continental U.S. we also characterized the population size at risk with respect to the level and duration of exposure to fire-originated fine particulate matter (fire-PM 2.5 ) and CHVI. We estimate that 10% of the population (30.5 million) lived in the areas where the contribution of fire-PM 2.5 to annual average ambient PM 2.5 was high (>1.5 μg/m 3 ) and that 10.3 million individuals experienced unhealthy air quality levels for more than 10 days due to smoke. Using CHVI we identified the most vulnerable counties and determined that these communities experience more smoke exposures in comparison to less vulnerable communities.

Fire patterns in the Amazonian biome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragao, Luiz E. O. C.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Lima, Andre; Anderson, Liana O.; Barbier, Nicolas; Saatchi, Sassan

2010-05-01

This paper aims to provide an overview of our recent findings on the interplay between climate and land use dynamics in defining fire patterns in Amazonia. Understanding these relationships is currently a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change and its potential for mitigating current increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases. Reducing carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), for instance, could contribute to a cumulative emission reduction of 13-50 billion tons of carbon (GtC) by 2100. In Amazonia, though, forest fires can release similar quantities of carbon to the atmosphere (~0.2 GtC yr-1) as deforestation alone. Therefore, to achieve carbon savings through REDD mechanism there is an urgent need of understanding and subsequently restraining related Amazonian fire drivers. In this study, we analyze satellite-derived monthly and annual time-series of fires, rainfall and deforestation in Amazonia to: (1) quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these variables; (2) quantify fire and rainfall anomalies to evaluate the impact of recent drought on fire patterns; (3) quantify recent trends in fire and deforestation to understand how land use affects fire patterns in Amazonia. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality of fires. The majority of fires occurs along the Arc of Deforestation, the expanding agricultural frontier in southern and eastern Amazonia, indicating humans are the major ignition sources determining fire seasonality, spatial distribution and long-term patterns. There is a marked seasonality of fires, which is highly correlated (p<0.05) with monthly rainfall and deforestation rates. Deforestation and fires reach their highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. This result clearly describes the impact of major human activities on fire incidence, which is generally characterized by the slash-and-burn of Amazonian vegetation for implementation of pastures and agricultural fields. The cumulative number of hot pixels is exponentially related to the monthly rainfall, which ultimately defines where and when fire can potentially strike. During the 2005 Amazonian drought, the number of hot pixels increased 33% in relation to mean 1998-2005. However, even with a large fraction of the basin experiencing considerable water deficits, fires have only affect areas with extensive human activity. Our spatially explicit trend analysis on deforestation and fire data revealed that more than half of the area experiencing increased fire occurrence have reduced deforestation rates. This reverse pattern is likely to be associated with the slash-and-burn of secondary forests and the increase of fragmentation and forest edges, favouring the leakage of fires from deforested lands into forests. Finally, our analysis points towards a reduction of fire incidence due to land use intensification in this region. In this study, we demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as deforestation rates, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region exacerbating human impacts in Amazonia. Due to ongoing deforestation and the predicted intensification of climate change induced droughts, it is anticipated that a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires and carbon savings from REDD may be partially offset by increased emissions following fire events. Improved fire-free land management practices may provide a sustainable solution for reducing emissions from the world's largest rainforest. Acknowledges The first author would like to thank the financial support of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC-UK/grant NE/F015356/1).

Fire regimes, forest change, and self-organization in an old-growth mixed-conifer forest, Yosemite National Park, USA.

PubMed

Scholl, Andrew E; Taylor, Alan H

2010-03-01

Fire is recognized as a keystone process in dry mixed-conifer forests that have been altered by decades of fire suppression, Restoration of fire disturbance to these forests is a guiding principle of resource management in the U.S. National Park Service. Policy implementation is often hindered by a poor understanding of forest conditions before fire exclusion, the characteristics of forest changes since excluding fire, and the influence of topographic or self-organizing controls on forest structure. In this study the spatial and temporal characteristics of fire regimes and forest structure are reconstructed in a 2125-ha mixed-conifer forest. Forests were multi-aged, burned frequently at low severity and fire-return interval, and forest structure did not vary with slope aspect, elevation, or slope position. Fire exclusion has caused an increase in forest density and basal area and a compositional shift to shade-tolerant and fire-intolerant species. The median point fire-return interval and extent of a fire was 10 yr and 115 ha, respectively. The pre-Euro-American settlement fire rotation of 13 yr increased to 378 yr after 1905. The position of fire scars within tree rings indicates that 79% of fires burned in the midsummer to fall period. The spatial pattern of burns exhibited self-organizing behavior. Area burned was 10-fold greater when an area had not been burned by the previous fire. Fires were frequent and widespread, but patches of similar aged trees were < 0.2 ha, suggesting small fire-caused canopy openings. Managers need to apply multiple burns at short intervals for a sustained period to reduce surface fuels and create small canopy openings characteristic of the reference forest. By coupling explicit reference conditions with consideration of current conditions and projected climate change, management activities can balance restoration and risk management.

The biodiversity cost of carbon sequestration in tropical savanna

PubMed Central

Abreu, Rodolfo C. R.; Hoffmann, William A.; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L.; Pilon, Natashi A.; Rossatto, Davi R.; Durigan, Giselda

2017-01-01

Tropical savannas have been increasingly viewed as an opportunity for carbon sequestration through fire suppression and afforestation, but insufficient attention has been given to the consequences for biodiversity. To evaluate the biodiversity costs of increasing carbon sequestration, we quantified changes in ecosystem carbon stocks and the associated changes in communities of plants and ants resulting from fire suppression in savannas of the Brazilian Cerrado, a global biodiversity hotspot. Fire suppression resulted in increased carbon stocks of 1.2 Mg ha−1 year−1 since 1986 but was associated with acute species loss. In sites fully encroached by forest, plant species richness declined by 27%, and ant richness declined by 35%. Richness of savanna specialists, the species most at risk of local extinction due to forest encroachment, declined by 67% for plants and 86% for ants. This loss highlights the important role of fire in maintaining biodiversity in tropical savannas, a role that is not reflected in current policies of fire suppression throughout the Brazilian Cerrado. In tropical grasslands and savannas throughout the tropics, carbon mitigation programs that promote forest cover cannot be assumed to provide net benefits for conservation. PMID:28875172

Monitoring Of Air Quality Parameters For Construction Of Fire Risk Detection Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romancov, I. I.; Dashkovky, A. G.; Panin, V. F.; Melkov, D. N.

2017-01-01

The analysis of fire developmental process is given, which showed that there are seven stages of fire development, a set of phenomena (factors, signs) of fire risk condition, characterized by a set of defined parameters, corresponds to each stage. Observed that the registration of high staging factors (high ambient temperature, content of CO2, etc.) means the registration of actual low staging fire (thermal destruction of materials gases, fumes, etc.) - fire risk situation. It is shown that the decrease of registered factor staging leads to construction of fire preventive and diagnostic systems as the lower is registered stage, the more uncertain is connection between the fact of its detection and a fire. It is indicated that with development of electronic equipment the staging of fire situations factors used for detection is reducing in whole, and also it is noted that for each control object it is necessary to choose (identify) the optimal factor, in particular, in many ways the optimal factor for aircrafts are smokes and their TV image.

[Considering the current state of fire safety in Taiwan's care environment from the perspective of the nation's worst recent hospital fire].

PubMed

Tseng, Wei-Wen; Shih, Chung-Liang; Chien, Shen-Wen

2013-04-01

Taiwan's worst hospital fire in history on October 23rd, 2012 at Sinying Hospital's Bei-Men Branch resulted in 13 elderly patient deaths and over 70 injuries. The heavy casualties were due in part to the serious condition of patients. Some patients on life-support machines were unable to move or be moved. This disaster highlights the issue of fire safety in small-scale hospitals that have transformed existing hospital space into special care environments for elderly patients. Compared with medical centers and general hospitals, these small-scale health facilities are ill equipped to deal properly with fire safety management and emergency response issues due to inadequate fire protection facilities, fire safety equipment, and human resources. Small-scale facilities that offer health care and medical services to mostly immobile patients face fire risks that differ significantly from general health care facilities. This paper focuses on fire risks in small-scale facilities and suggests a strategy for fire prevention and emergency response procedures, including countermeasures for fire risk assessment, management, and emergency response, in order to improve fire safety at these institutions in Taiwan.

Cost-Effective Fuel Treatment Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreitler, J.; Thompson, M.; Vaillant, N.

2014-12-01

The cost of fighting large wildland fires in the western United States has grown dramatically over the past decade. This trend will likely continue with growth of the WUI into fire prone ecosystems, dangerous fuel conditions from decades of fire suppression, and a potentially increasing effect from prolonged drought and climate change. Fuel treatments are often considered the primary pre-fire mechanism to reduce the exposure of values at risk to wildland fire, and a growing suite of fire models and tools are employed to prioritize where treatments could mitigate wildland fire damages. Assessments using the likelihood and consequence of fire are critical because funds are insufficient to reduce risk on all lands needing treatment, therefore prioritization is required to maximize the effectiveness of fuel treatment budgets. Cost-effectiveness, doing the most good per dollar, would seem to be an important fuel treatment metric, yet studies or plans that prioritize fuel treatments using costs or cost-effectiveness measures are absent from the literature. Therefore, to explore the effect of using costs in fuel treatment planning we test four prioritization algorithms designed to reduce risk in a case study examining fuel treatments on the Sisters Ranger District of central Oregon. For benefits we model sediment retention and standing biomass, and measure the effectiveness of each algorithm by comparing the differences among treatment and no treat alternative scenarios. Our objective is to maximize the averted loss of net benefits subject to a representative fuel treatment budget. We model costs across the study landscape using the My Fuel Treatment Planner software, tree list data, local mill prices, and GIS-measured site characteristics. We use fire simulations to generate burn probabilities, and estimate fire intensity as conditional flame length at each pixel. Two prioritization algorithms target treatments based on cost-effectiveness and show improvements over those that use only benefits. Variations across the heterogeneous surfaces of costs and benefits create opportunities for fuel treatments to maximize the expected averted loss of benefits. By targeting these opportunities we demonstrate how incorporating costs in fuel treatment prioritization can improve the outcome of fuel treatment planning.

Refugee camps, fire disasters and burn injuries.

PubMed

Atiyeh, B S; Gunn, S W A

2017-09-30

In the past five years, no fewer than 15 conflicts have brought unspeakable tragedy and misery to millions across the world. At present, nearly 20 people are forcibly displaced every minute as a result of conflict or persecution, representing a crisis of historic proportions. Many displaced persons end up in camps generally developing in an impromptu fashion, and are totally dependent on humanitarian aid. The precarious condition of temporary installations puts the nearly 700 refugee camps worldwide at high risk of disease, child soldier and terrorist recruitment, and physical and sexual violence. Poorly planned, densely packed refugee settlements are also one of the most pathogenic environments possible, representing high risk for fires with potential for uncontrolled fire spread and development over sometimes quite large areas. Moreover, providing healthcare to refugees comes with its own unique challenges. Internationally recognized guidelines for minimum standards in shelters and settlements have been set, however they remain largely inapplicable. As for fire risk reduction, and despite the high number of fire incidents, it is not evident that fire safety can justify a higher priority. In that regard, a number of often conflicting influences will need to be considered. The greatest challenge remains in balancing the various risks, such as the need/cost of shelter against the fire risk/cost of fire protection.

Refugee camps, fire disasters and burn injuries

PubMed Central

Atiyeh, B.S.; Gunn, S.W.A.

2017-01-01

Summary In the past five years, no fewer than 15 conflicts have brought unspeakable tragedy and misery to millions across the world. At present, nearly 20 people are forcibly displaced every minute as a result of conflict or persecution, representing a crisis of historic proportions. Many displaced persons end up in camps generally developing in an impromptu fashion, and are totally dependent on humanitarian aid. The precarious condition of temporary installations puts the nearly 700 refugee camps worldwide at high risk of disease, child soldier and terrorist recruitment, and physical and sexual violence. Poorly planned, densely packed refugee settlements are also one of the most pathogenic environments possible, representing high risk for fires with potential for uncontrolled fire spread and development over sometimes quite large areas. Moreover, providing healthcare to refugees comes with its own unique challenges. Internationally recognized guidelines for minimum standards in shelters and settlements have been set, however they remain largely inapplicable. As for fire risk reduction, and despite the high number of fire incidents, it is not evident that fire safety can justify a higher priority. In that regard, a number of often conflicting influences will need to be considered. The greatest challenge remains in balancing the various risks, such as the need/cost of shelter against the fire risk/cost of fire protection. PMID:29849526

Repeated prescribed fires decrease stocks and change attributes of coarse woody debris in a temperate eucalypt forest.

PubMed

Aponte, Cristina; Tolhurst, Kevin G; Bennett, Lauren T

2014-07-01

Previous studies have found negligible effects of single prescribed fires on coarse woody debris (CWD), but the cumulative effects of repeated low-intensity prescribed fires are unknown. This represents a knowledge gap for environmental management because repeated prescribed fires are a key tool for mitigating wildfire risk, and because CWD is recognized as critical to forest biodiversity and functioning. We examined the effects of repeated low-intensity prescribed fires on the attributes and stocks of (fallen) CWD in a mixed-species eucalypt forest of temperate Australia. Prescribed fire treatments were a factorial combination of two seasons (Autumn, Spring) and two frequencies (three yearly High, 10 yearly Low), were replicated over five study areas, and involved two to seven low-intensity fires over 27 years. Charring due to prescribed fires variously changed carbon and nitrogen concentrations and C to N ratios of CWD pieces depending on decay class, but did not affect mean wood density. CWD biomass and C and N stocks were significantly less in Fire than Control treatments. Decreases in total CWD C stocks of -8 Mg/ha in Fire treatments were not balanced by minor increases in pyrogenic (char) C (-0.3 Mg/ha). Effects of prescribed fire frequency and season included significantly less C and N stocks in rotten CWD in High than Low frequency treatments, and in the largest CWD pieces in Autumn than Spring treatments. Our study demonstrates that repeated low-intensity prescribed fires have the potential to significantly decrease CWD stocks, in pieces of all sizes and particularly decayed pieces, and to change CWD chemical attributes. CWD is at best a minor stock of pyrogenic C under such fire regimes. These findings suggest a potential trade-off in the management of temperate eucalypt forests between sustained reduction of wildfire risk, and the consequences of decreased CWD C stocks, and of changes in CWD as a habitat and biogeochemical substrate. Nonetheless, negative impacts on CWD of repeated low-intensity prescribed fires could be lessened by fire intervals of 10 rather than three years (to decrease losses of decayed CWD), and fires in moist rather than dry conditions (to conserve large CWD).

Utilizing NASA EOS Data for Fire Management in el Departmento del Valle del Cauco, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenton, J. C.; Bledsoe, N.; Alabdouli, K.

2012-12-01

In the last few years, fire incidence in Colombian wild areas has increased, damaging pristine forests into savannas and sterile lands. Fire poses a significant threat to biodiversity, rural communities and established infrastructure. These events issue an urgent need to address this problem. NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) can play a significant role in the monitoring fires and natural disasters. SERVIR, the Regional Visualization and Monitoring Network, constitutes a platform for the observation, forecasting and modeling of environmental processes in Central America. A project called "The GIS for fire management in Guatemala (SIGMA-I)" has been already conducted to address the same problem in another Latin American country, Guatemala. SIGMA-I was developed by the Inter-agency work among the National protected areas council (CONAP), National Forestry Institution (INAB), the National Coordinator for Disaster Reduction / National Forest Fire Prevention and Control System (CONRED/SIPECIF), and the Ministry of the Environment and National Resources (MARN) in Guatemala under the guidance and assistance of SERVIR. With SIGMA-I as an example, we proposed to conduct a similar project for the country of Colombia. First, a pilot study in the area of the watershed of the Cali River, Colombia was conducted to ensure that the data was available and that the maps and models were accurate. The proposed study will investigate the technical resources required: 1.) A fire map with a compilation of ignition data (hot spots) utilizing Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products MOD14 and MYD14 2.) A map of fire scars derived from medium resolution satellite data (ASTER) during the period 2003-2011 for the entire country, and a map of fire scar recurrence and statistics derived from the datasets produced. 3.) A pattern analysis and ignition cause model derived from a matrix of variables statistically exploring the demographic and environmental factors of fire risk, such as land surface temperature, precipitation, and NDVI .4.) A dynamic fire risk evaluation able to generate a dynamic map of ignition risk based on statistical analysis factors. This study aims to research integrating MODIS, Landsat and ASTER data along with in-situ data on environmental parameters from the Corporation of the Cauca Valley River (CVC) along with other data on social, economical and cultural variables obtained by researchers of the Wild Fire Observatory (OCIF) from the "Universidad Autónoma de Occidente" in order to create an ignition cause model, dynamic fire risk evaluation system and compile any and all geospatial data generated for the region. In this way the research will help predict and forecast fire vulnerabilities in the region. The team undertook this project through SERVIR with the guidance of the scientist, Victor Hugo Ramos, who was the leader and principal investigator on the SIGMA-I.

A qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk perception and treatment options as related to wildfires in the USDA FS Region 3 National Forests

Treesearch

Ingrid M. Martin; Wade E. Martin; Carol B. Raish

2011-01-01

As the incidence of devastating fires rises, managing the risk posed by these fires has become critical. This report provides important information to examine the ways that different groups or disaster subcultures develop the mentalities or perceived realities that affect their views and responses concerning risk and disaster preparedness. Fire risk beliefs and...

Local Action Plans for Forest Fire Prevention in Greece: Existing situation and a Proposed Template based on the Collaboration of Academics and Public Policy Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papanikolaou, Dimitrios; Arvanitakis, Spyridon; Papanikolaou, , Ioannis; Lozios, Stylianos; Diakakis, Michalis; Deligiannakis, Georgios; Dimitropoulou, Margarita; Georgiou, Konstantinos

2013-04-01

Wildfires are a major hazard in Greece suffering on average 1,509 wildfires and 36,151 burned hectares of forestlands every year. Since 1998 the Greek Fire Service is responsible for wildfires suppression and response, while prevention and mitigation yearly directives are also being released by the General Secretariat of Civil Protection. The 3013/2002 Act introduced a major transfer of responsibilities from the national to local municipal and regional authorities, which are accompanied by supplementary financial support. Significant new features were established such as the operation of local coordination councils, the foundation of municipality civil protection offices, the establishment of the annually prevention planning for forest fires and the development of local action plans. The University of Athens has developed a Local Action Plan template for municipality administrative levels, integrating scientific techniques and technologies to public government management. The Local Action Plan for Forest Fire Prevention is the main handbook and primary tool of every municipality for reducing the risk of wildfires. Fire prevention and risk analysis are the principal aims of this Plan, which also emphasizes on the important role of the volunteer organizations on forest fire prevention. The 7 chapters of the Action Plan include the legal framework, the risk analysis parameters, the risk analysis using GIS, the prevention planning, the manpower and available equipment of services involved, along with operational planning and evaluation of the previous year's forest fire prevention actions. Multiple information layers, such as vegetation types, road network, power lines and landfills are combined in GIS environment and transformed into qualitative multiparameter as well as quantitative combinational fire hazard maps. These maps are essential in wildfire risk analysis as they display the areas that need the highest attention during the fire season. Moreover, the separate steps of operational planning and the reviewing of precaution, addressing and rehabilitation measures are analyzed. This action plan, risk analysis and maps are of decisive importance not only for prevention and operational planning purposes, but can also prove useful during the crisis and the rehabilitation processes as well. Additionally, we conducted a large questionnaire survey among the municipalities of Greece to assess the existing situation regarding forest fire prevention. Therefore, a network connecting civil protection departments of municipalities was developed, based on an Internet platform, which acted also as a communication tool. Overall, we had feedback either online or offline from 125 municipalities across the country (representing more than one/third of the total municipalities of Greece). 23% of the municipalities have not compiled an action plan yet despite the fact that the 3013/2002 Act of the Greek National Law requires one. Moreover, existing action plans are predominantly catalogues and tables of information regarding authorised personnel and equipment. They lack important information, present no spatial data and display no prevention measures. Indeed, 85% of the municipalities that have action plans do not use risk maps and spatial data, which are of decisive importance for compiling the plans. 74% of the municipalities do not keep a record of forest fires. The jurisdiction area has been modified after the new administrative plan of Kallikratis in 2010 in 74% of the municipalities, however, local action plans were not adapted accordingly in 61% of these. The daily Fire Risk Map of the General Secretariat of Civil Protection has a key role, since 77% of the municipalities take additional measures in case of increased fire risk. According to the civil protection officials, existing action plans suffer from several major problems which emerge due to the fact: that there is no assessment on the fire hazard 67%, there is lack of personnel training 65%, new technologies are not incorporated or used 57% and there is a lack of a template for compiling an action plan 53%. The partnership between the University of Athens with the support of the private sector and the Union of Municipalities of Attica was held under the LIFE+ project "Local Authorities Alliance for Forest Fire Prevention - LIFE08/ENV/GR/000553 " which is implemented with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community.

Creation and implementation of a certification system for insurability and fire risk classification for forest plantations

Treesearch

Veronica Loewe M.; Victor Vargas; Juan Miguel Ruiz; Andrea Alvarez C.; Felipe Lobo Q.

2015-01-01

Currently, the Chilean insurance market sells forest fire insurance policies and agricultural weather risk policies. However, access to forest fire insurance is difficult for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), with a significant proportion (close to 50%) of forest plantations being without coverage. Indeed, the insurance market that sells forest fire insurance...

Fire Severity and Intensity During Spring Burning in Natural and Masticated Mixed Shrub Woodlands

Treesearch

Tim Bradley; Jennifer Gibson; Windy Bunn

2006-01-01

Fire risk is an ever present management concern in many urban interface regions. To mitigate this risk, land management agencies have expanded their options beyond prescribed fire to include vegetation mastication and other mechanical fuel treatments. This research project examined fire severity and intensity in masticated and unmanipulated units that were burned in...

Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

PubMed

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

Modelling the Meteorological Forest Fire Niche in Heterogeneous Pyrologic Conditions

PubMed Central

De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

2015-01-01

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition. PMID:25679957

Pediatric fire deaths in Ontario

PubMed Central

Chen, Yingming Amy; Bridgman-Acker, Karen; Edwards, Jim; Lauwers, Albert Edward

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective To identify the predictors of residential fire deaths in the Ontario pediatric population using systematically collected data from the Office of the Chief Coroner. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Ontario. Participants Children younger than 16 years of age who died in accidental residential fires in Ontario between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2006. Main outcome measures The study retrospectively reviewed the coroner’s case files for 60 subjects who qualified according to the selection criteria. Reviewed documents included the coroner’s investigation statements, autopsy reports, toxicology reports, fire marshal’s reports, police reports, and Children’s Aid Society (CAS) reports. Information on a range of demographic, behavioural, social, and environmental factors was collected. Statistical tests, including relative risk, relative risk confidence intervals, and χ2 tests were performed to determine the correlation between factors of interest and to establish their significance. Results Thirty-nine fire events resulting in 60 deaths occurred between 2001 and 2006. Fire play and electrical failures were the top 2 causes of residential fires. More fires occurred during the night (midnight to 9 am) than during the day (9 am to midnight). Nighttime fires were most commonly due to electrical failures or unattended candles, whereas daytime fires were primarily caused by unsupervised fire play and stove fires. Smoke alarms were present at 32 of 39 fire events (82%), but overall alarm functionality was only 54%. Children from families with a history of CAS involvement were approximately 32 times more likely to die in fires. Conclusion Risk factors for pediatric fire death in Ontario include smoke alarm functionality, fire play, fire escape behaviour, and CAS involvement. Efforts to prevent residential fire deaths should target these populations and risk factors, and primary care physicians should consider education around these issues as a primary preventive strategy for families with young children. PMID:21571705

Review of autopsy reports of deaths relating to fire in South Australia 2000-2015.

PubMed

Sully, Claire J; Walker, G Stewart; Langlois, Neil E I

2018-06-01

It has been noted there are gaps and inconsistencies in data pertaining to fire related deaths in Australia, which poses difficulties for analysis of national statistics. A search of post-mortem examination reports at Forensic Science SA from 2000 to 2015 revealed 275 cases regarded as fire related in which the body had been involved in a fire. The autopsy reports were evaluated to determine parameters including the location of the fire event, age and sex of victim, as well as the presence of soot in the airways and cherry-red coloration to the blood and/or organs, in addtion to toxicological levels of carboxyhemoglobin and alcohol. Fire events were clasified as structural, transportation or open air in type. Males were more commonly victims than females, especially in transportation fires, where males aged below 50 years were most at risk of death. Carboxyhemoglobin levels tended to be lower in victims of transportation fires. This study has confirmed that presence of soot in the respiratory tract and cherry-red coloration of a body retrieved from a fire are both linked to an increased level of blood carboxyhemoglobin. These findings significantly contribute to the documentation of fire deaths in Australia.

Reducing hazardous fuels on nonindustrial private forests: factors influencing landowner decisions

Treesearch

A. Paige Fischer

2011-01-01

In mixed-ownership landscapes, fuels conditions on private lands have implications for fire risk on public lands and vice versa. The success of efforts to mitigate fire risk depends on the extent, efficacy, and coordination of treatments on nearby ownerships. Understanding factors in forest owners' decisions to address the risk of wildland fire is therefore...

Using ArcObjects for automating fireshed assessments and analyzing wildfire risk

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Bernhard Bahro; Mark Finney

2006-01-01

Firesheds are geographic units used by the Forest Service to delineate areas with similar fire regimes, fire history, and wildland fire risk issues. Fireshed assessment is a collaborative process where specialists design fuel treatments to mitigate wildfire risk. Fireshed assessments are an iterative process where fuel treatments are proposed for specific stands based...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

16 CFR 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. 1145.3 Section 1145.3 Commercial Practices...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

Fire characteristics associated with firefighter injury on large federal wildland fires.

PubMed

Britton, Carla; Lynch, Charles F; Torner, James; Peek-Asa, Corinne

2013-02-01

Wildland fires present many injury hazards to firefighters. We estimate injury rates and identify fire-related factors associated with injury. Data from the National Interagency Fire Center from 2003 to 2007 provided the number of injuries in which the firefighter could not return to his or her job assignment, person-days worked, and fire characteristics (year, region, season, cause, fuel type, resistance to control, and structures destroyed). We assessed fire-level risk factors of having at least one reported injury using logistic regression. Negative binomial regression was used to examine incidence rate ratios associated with fire-level risk factors. Of 867 fires, 9.5% required the most complex management and 24.7% required the next-highest level of management. Fires most often occurred in the western United States (82.8%), during the summer (69.6%), caused by lightening (54.9%). Timber was the most frequent fuel source (40.2%). Peak incident management level, person-days of exposure, and the fire's resistance to control were significantly related to the odds of a fire having at least one reported injury. However, the most complex fires had a lower injury incidence rate than less complex fires. Although fire complexity and the number of firefighters were associated with the risk for at least one reported injury, the more experienced and specialized firefighting teams had lower injury incidence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Combined effects of precipitation and nitrogen deposition on native and invasive winter annual production in California deserts.

PubMed

Rao, Leela E; Allen, Edith B

2010-04-01

Primary production in deserts is limited by soil moisture and N availability, and thus is likely to be influenced by both anthropogenic N deposition and precipitation regimes altered as a consequence of climate change. Invasive annual grasses are particularly responsive to increases in N and water availabilities, which may result in competition with native forb communities. Additionally, conditions favoring increased invasive grass production in arid and semi-arid regions can increase fire risk, negatively impacting woody vegetation that is not adapted to fire. We conducted a seeded garden experiment and a 5-year field fertilization experiment to investigate how winter annual production is altered by increasing N supply under a range of water availabilities. The greatest production of invasive grasses and native forbs in the garden experiment occurred under the highest soil N (inorganic N after fertilization = 2.99 g m(-2)) and highest watering regime, indicating these species are limited by both water and N. A classification and regression tree (CART) analysis on the multi-year field fertilization study showed that winter annual biomass was primarily limited by November-December precipitation. Biomass exceeded the threshold capable of carrying fire when inorganic soil N availability was at least 3.2 g m(-2) in piñon-juniper woodland. Due to water limitation in creosote bush scrub, biomass exceeded the fire threshold only under very wet conditions regardless of soil N status. The CART analyses also revealed that percent cover of invasive grasses and native forbs is primarily dependent on the timing and amount of precipitation and secondarily dependent on soil N and site-specific characteristics. In total, our results indicate that areas of high N deposition will be susceptible to grass invasion, particularly in wet years, potentially reducing native species cover and increasing the risk of fire.

Factors affecting fuel break effectiveness in the control of large fires on the Los Padres National Forest, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Brennan, Teresa J.

2011-01-01

As wildfires have increased in frequency and extent, so have the number of homes developed in the wildland-urban interface. In California, the predominant approach to mitigating fire risk is construction of fuel breaks, but there has been little empirical study of their role in controlling large fires.We constructed a spatial database of fuel breaks on the Los Padres National Forest in southern California to better understand characteristics of fuel breaks that affect the behaviour of large fires and to map where fires and fuel breaks most commonly intersect. We evaluated whether fires stopped or crossed over fuel breaks over a 28-year period and compared the outcomes with physical characteristics of the sites, weather and firefighting activities during the fire event. Many fuel breaks never intersected fires, but others intersected several, primarily in historically fire-prone areas. Fires stopped at fuel breaks 46% of the time, almost invariably owing to fire suppression activities. Firefighter access to treatments, smaller fires and longer fuel breaks were significant direct influences, and younger vegetation and fuel break maintenance indirectly improved the outcome by facilitating firefighter access. This study illustrates the importance of strategic location of fuel breaks because they have been most effective where they provided access for firefighting activities.

Reduced frequency and severity of residential fires following delivery of fire prevention education by on-duty fire fighters: cluster randomized controlled study.

PubMed

Clare, Joseph; Garis, Len; Plecas, Darryl; Jennings, Charles

2012-04-01

In 2008, Surrey Fire Services, British Columbia, commenced a firefighter-delivered, door-to-door fire-prevention education and smoke alarm examination/installation initiative with the intention of reducing the frequency and severity of residential structure fires in the City of Surrey. High-risk zones within the city were identified and 18,473 home visits were undertaken across seven temporal delivery cohorts (13.8% of non-apartment dwellings in the city). The frequency and severity of fires pre- and post- the home visit intervention was examined in comparison to randomized high-risk cluster controls. Overall, the frequency of fires was found to have reduced in the city overall, however, the reduction in the intervention cohorts was significantly larger than for controls. Furthermore, when fires did occur within the intervention cohorts, smoke detectors were activated more frequently and the fires were confined to the object of origin more often post-home visits. No equivalent pattern was observed for the cluster control. On-duty fire fighters can reduce the frequency and severity of residential fires through targeted, door-to-door distribution of fire prevention education in high-risk areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trying not to get burned: understanding homeowners' wildfire risk-mitigation behaviors.

PubMed

Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Champ, Patricia A; Flores, Nicholas

2012-12-01

Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation let alone reverse it, changing the behaviors of existing and potential homeowners in fire-prone areas is the most promising approach to decreasing the cost of suppressing wildfires in the wildland-urban interface and increasing the odds of homes surviving wildfire events. Wildfire education efforts encourage homeowners to manage their property to decrease wildfire risk. Such programs may be more effective with a better understanding of the factors related to homeowners' decisions to undertake wildfire risk-reduction actions. In this study, we measured whether homeowners had implemented 12 wildfire risk-mitigation measures in 2 Colorado Front Range counties. We found that wildfire information received from local volunteer fire departments and county wildfire specialists, as well as talking with neighbors about wildfire, were positively associated with higher levels of mitigation. Firsthand experience in the form of preparing for or undertaking an evacuation was also associated with a higher level of mitigation. Finally, homeowners who perceived higher levels of wildfire risk on their property had undertaken higher levels of wildfire-risk mitigation on their property.

Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

Estimating Potential Increased Bladder Cancer Risk Due to Increased Bromide Concentrations in Sources of Disinfected Drinking Waters

EPA Science Inventory

Public water systems are increasingly facing higher bromide levels in their source waters from anthropogenic contamination through coal-fired power plants, conventional oil and gas extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this in coming years. ...

Estimating Potential Increased Bladder Cancer Risk Due to Increased Bromide Concentrations in Sources of Disinfected Drinking Waters - slides

EPA Science Inventory

Public water systems are increasingly facing higher bromide levels in their source waters from anthropogenic contamination through coal-fired powerplants, conventional oil and gas extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this in coming years. W...

Acute Peat Smoke Inhalation Increases Blood Pressure and Cardiac Arrhythmia Risk in Rats

EPA Science Inventory

Wildland fires are increasingly linked to adverse health impacts related to poor air quality. For instance, short-term exposure to smoldering peat (SP) air pollution in eastern North Carolina during separate burns in 2008 and 2011 led to increased cardiopulmonary emergency room v...

Climate Change, Wildland Fires and Public Health | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change is contributing to an increase in the severity of wildland fires. The annual acreage burned in the U.S. has risen steadily since 1985, and the fire season has lengthened. Wildland fires impair air quality by producing massive quantities of particulate air pollutants and ozone precursors. Together particles and ozone exposures increase the risk of premature death and acute and chronic cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity among vulnerable individuals. Future wildfires are predicted to be larger, more severe and more frequent in some regions of the U.S and will contribute to an even greater proportion of the ambient air pollution, the disease burden and healthcare costs.While the projected magnitude of the public health impact of climate change-related wildfire events is uncertain, it is clear that the proportion of the U.S. population vulnerable to the adverse health effects of wildland fire and its smoke is increasing. An aging population with chronic respiratory diseases and increasing obesity and diabetes that heralds more cardiovascular disease will increase the vulnerability of the population to the adverse effects of wildfire smoke and associated stressors. Additionally, physiological changes attendant to aging decrease the capacity of aged-adults to tolerate wildfire smoke, heat, humidity, evacuation and recovery. Expansion of our cities into the wildland-urban interface is also placing a greater proportion of the population in clo

Combined Hydrologic (AGWA-KINEROS2) and Hydraulic (HEC2) Modeling for Post-Fire Runoff and Inundation Risk Assessment through a Set of Python Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, J. E.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, D. P.; Burns, I. S.

2016-12-01

Wildfires in the Western United States can alter landscapes by removing vegetation and changing soil properties. These altered landscapes produce more runoff than pre-fire landscapes which can lead to post-fire flooding that can damage infrastructure and impair natural resources. Resources, structures, historical artifacts and others that could be impacted by increased runoff are considered values at risk. .The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) allows users to quickly set up and execute the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion model (KINEROS2 or K2) in the ESRI ArcMap environment. The AGWA-K2 workflow leverages the visualization capabilities of GIS to facilitate evaluation of rapid watershed assessments for post-fire planning efforts. High relative change in peak discharge, as simulated by K2, provides a visual and numeric indicator to investigate those channels in the watershed that should be evaluated for more detailed analysis, especially if values at risk are within or near that channel. Modeling inundation extent along a channel would provide more specific guidance about risk along a channel. HEC-2 and HEC-RAS can be used for hydraulic modeling efforts at the reach and river system scale. These models have been used to address flood boundaries and, accordingly, flood risk. However, data collection and organization for hydraulic models can be time consuming and therefore a combined hydrologic-hydraulic modeling approach is not often employed for rapid assessments. A simplified approach could streamline this process and provide managers with a simple workflow and tool to perform a quick risk assessment for a single reach. By focusing on a single reach highlighted by large relative change in peak discharge, data collection efforts can be minimized and the hydraulic computations can be performed to supplement risk analysis. The incorporation of hydraulic analysis through a suite of Python tools (as outlined by HEC-2) with AGWA-K2 will allow more rapid applications of combined hydrologic-hydraulic modeling. This combined modeling approach is built in the ESRI ArcGIS application to enable rapid model preparation, execution and result visualization for risk assessment in post-fire environments.

Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes.

PubMed

Schoennagel, Tania; Balch, Jennifer K; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Dennison, Philip E; Harvey, Brian J; Krawchuk, Meg A; Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Morgan, Penelope; Moritz, Max A; Rasker, Ray; Turner, Monica G; Whitlock, Cathy

2017-05-02

Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland-urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are ( i ) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; ( ii ) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; ( iii ) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and ( iv ) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland-urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire.

Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes

PubMed Central

Schoennagel, Tania; Balch, Jennifer K.; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Harvey, Brian J.; Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Morgan, Penelope; Moritz, Max A.; Rasker, Ray; Turner, Monica G.; Whitlock, Cathy

2017-01-01

Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland–urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are (i) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; (ii) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; (iii) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and (iv) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland–urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire. PMID:28416662

Association between Residential Proximity to Fuel-Fired Power Plants and Hospitalization Rate for Respiratory Diseases

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaopeng; Lessner, Lawrence

2012-01-01

Background: Air pollution is known to cause respiratory disease. Unlike motor vehicle sources, fuel-fired power plants are stationary. Objective: Using hospitalization data, we examined whether living near a fuel-fired power plant increases the likelihood of hospitalization for respiratory disease. Methods: Rates of hospitalization for asthma, acute respiratory infection (ARI), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were estimated using hospitalization data for 1993–2008 from New York State in relation to data for residences near fuel-fired power plants. We also explored data for residential proximity to hazardous waste sites. Results: After adjusting for age, sex, race, median household income, and rural/urban residence, there were significant 11%, 15%, and 17% increases in estimated rates of hospitalization for asthma, ARI, and COPD, respectively, among individuals > 10 years of age living in a ZIP code containing a fuel-fired power plant compared with one that had no power plant. Living in a ZIP code with a fuel-fired power plant was not significantly associated with hospitalization for asthma or ARI among children < 10 years of age. Living in a ZIP code with a hazardous waste site was associated with hospitalization for all outcomes in both age groups, and joint effect estimates were approximately additive for living in a ZIP code that contained a fuel-fired power plant and a hazardous waste site. Conclusions: Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to air pollution from fuel-fired power plants and volatile compounds coming from hazardous waste sites increases the risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases. PMID:22370087

Forest construction infrastructures for the prevision, suppression, and protection before and after forest fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drosos, Vasileios C.; Giannoulas, Vasileios J.; Daoutis, Christodoulos

2014-08-01

Climatic changes cause temperature rise and thus increase the risk of forest fires. In Greece the forests with the greatest risk to fire are usually those located near residential and tourist areas where there are major pressures on land use changes, while there are no currently guaranteed cadastral maps and defined title deeds because of the lack of National and Forest Cadastre. In these areas the deliberate causes of forest fires are at a percentage more than 50%. This study focuses on the forest opening up model concerning both the prevention and suppression of forest fires. The most urgent interventions that can be done after the fire destructions is also studied in relation to soil protection constructions, in order to minimize the erosion and the torrential conditions. Digital orthophotos were used in order to produce and analyze spatial data using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Initially, Digital Elevation Models were generated, based on photogrammetry and forest areas as well as the forest road network were mapped. Road density, road distance, skidding distance and the opening up percentage were accurately measured for a forest complex. Finally, conclusions and suggestions have been drawn about the environmental compatibility of forest protection and wood harvesting works. In particular the contribution of modern technologies such as digital photogrammetry, remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems is very important, allowing reliable, effective and fast process of spatial analysis contributing to a successful planning of opening up works and fire protection.

Forest-fire models

Treesearch

Haiganoush Preisler; Alan Ager

2013-01-01

For applied mathematicians forest fire models refer mainly to a non-linear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects and economic models). In...

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States.

PubMed

Littell, Jeremy S; Peterson, David L; Riley, Karin L; Liu, Yongquiang; Luce, Charles H

2016-07-01

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate - including short- and long-term droughts - are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire-related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Fire effects on wildlife in Central Hardwoods and Appalachian regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harper, Craig A.; Ford, W. Mark; Lashley, Marcus A.; Moorman, Christopher; Stambaugh, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Fire is being prescribed and used increasingly to promote ecosystem restoration (e.g., oak woodlands and savannas) and to manage wildlife habitat in the Central Hardwoods and Appalachian regions, USA. However, questions persist as to how fire affects hardwood forest communities and associated wildlife, and how fire should be used to achieve management goals. We provide an up-to-date review of fire effects on various wildlife species and their habitat in the Central Hardwoods and Appalachians. Documented direct effects (i.e., mortality) on wildlife are rare. Indirect effects (i.e., changes in habitat quality) are influenced greatly by light availability, fire frequency, and fire intensity. Unless fire intensity is great enough to kill a portion of the overstory, burning in closed-canopy forests has provided little benefit for most wildlife species in the region because it doesn’t result in enough sunlight penetration to elicit understory response. Canopy reduction through silvicultural treatment has enabled managers to use fire more effectively. Fire intensity must be kept low in hardwoods to limit damage to many species of overstory trees. However, wounding or killing trees with fire benefits many wildlife species by allowing increased sunlight to stimulate understory response, snag and subsequent cavity creation, and additions of large coarse woody debris. In general, a fire-return interval of 2 yr to 7 yr benefits a wide variety of wildlife species by providing a diverse structure in the understory; increasing browse, forage, and soft mast; and creating snags and cavities. Historically, dormant-season fire was most prevalent in these regions, and it still is when most prescribed fire is implemented in hardwood systems as burn-days are relatively few in the growing season of May through August because of shading from leaf cover and high fuel moisture. Late growing-season burning increases the window for burning, and better control on woody composition is possible. Early growing-season fire may pose increased risk for some species, especially herpetofauna recently emerged from winter hibernacula (April) or forest songbirds that nest in the understory (May to June). However, negative population-level effects are unlikely unless the burned area is relatively large and early growing-season fire is used continually. We did not find evidence that fire is leading to population declines for any species, including Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed species (e.g., Indiana bat [Myotis sodalis Mill. Allen] or northern long-eared bat [M. septentrionalis Trouess.]). Instead, data indicate that fire can enhance habitat for bats by increasing suitability of foraging and day-roost sites. Similarly, concern over burning and displacement of woodland salamanders (Plethodontidae), another taxa of heightened conservation concern, is alleviated when fire is prescribed along ecologically appropriate aspect and slope gradients and not forced into mesic, high site index environments where salamanders are most common. Because topography across the Central Hardwoods and Appalachians is diverse, we contend that applying fire on positions best suited for burning is an effective approach to increase regional landscape heterogeneity and biological diversity. Herein, we offer prescriptive concepts for burning for various wildlife species and guilds in the Central Hardwoods and Appalachians.

How the science of injury prevention contributes to advancing home fire safety in the USA: successes and opportunities.

PubMed

Gielen, Andrea C; Frattaroli, Shannon; Pollack, Keshia M; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen G

2018-06-01

In the decades since the landmark report-America Burning-was published in 1973, the number of home fire deaths has shrunk from >5500 per year to 2650 in 2015. This paper: (1) describes how science and practice in injury prevention and fire and life safety contributed to successful interventions, and (2) identifies emerging strategies and future opportunities to prevent home fire-related deaths. The aims are addressed through the lens of population health research, with a focus on the work of selected Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-funded Injury Control Research Centers. Results are organised using the Haddon Matrix and an ecological model. We found evidence to support interventions that address all components of both the matrix and the model, including: reduced ignition propensity cigarettes, stop smoking campaigns, housing codes, residential sprinkler systems, smoke alarms, community risk reduction, school-based educational programmes, and fire and burn response systems. Future reductions are likely to come from enhancing residential sprinkler and smoke alarm technology, and increasing their utilisation; expanding the use of community risk reduction methods; and implementing new technological solutions. Despite the successes, substantial disparities in home fire death rates remain, reflecting underlying social determinants of health. Most of the evidence-supported interventions were focused on changing the policy and community environments to prevent home fires and reduce injury when a fire occurs. Future prevention efforts should give high priority to addressing the continued disparities in home fire deaths. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Structural fire risk of Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário

2017-04-01

Portugal is on the top of the European countries most affected by vegetation fires which underlines the importance of the existence of an updated and coherent fire risk map. This map represent a valuable supporting tool for forest and fire management decisions, focus prevention activities, improve the efficiency of fire detection systems, manage resources and actions of fire fighting with greater effectiveness. Therefore this study proposed a structural fire risk map of the vegetated area of Portugal using a deterministic approach based on the concept of fire risk currently accepted by the scientific community which consists in the combination of the fire hazard and the potential economic damage. The existing fire susceptibility map for Portugal based on the slope, land cover and fire probability, was adopted and updated by the use of a higher resolution digital terrain model, longer burnt area perimeter dataset (1975 - 2013) and the entire set of Corine land cover inventories. Five susceptibility classes were mapped to be in accordance with the Portuguese law and the results confirms the good performance of this model not only in terms of the favourability scores but also in the predictive values. Considering three different scenarios of (maximum, mean, and minimum annual) burnt area, fire hazard were estimate. The vulnerability scores and monetary values of species defined in the literature and by law were used to calculate the potential economic damage. The result was a fire risk map that identifies the areas more prone to be affected by fires in the future and provides an estimate of the economic damage of the fire which will be a valuable tool for forest and fire managers and to minimize the economic and environmental consequences of vegetation fires in Portugal. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; (ii) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF and ISA for providing the fire data.

Are High-Severity Fires Burning at Much Higher Rates Recently than Historically in Dry-Forest Landscapes of the Western USA?

PubMed

Baker, William L

2015-01-01

Dry forests at low elevations in temperate-zone mountains are commonly hypothesized to be at risk of exceptional rates of severe fire from climatic change and land-use effects. Their setting is fire-prone, they have been altered by land-uses, and fire severity may be increasing. However, where fires were excluded, increased fire could also be hypothesized as restorative of historical fire. These competing hypotheses are not well tested, as reference data prior to widespread land-use expansion were insufficient. Moreover, fire-climate projections were lacking for these forests. Here, I used new reference data and records of high-severity fire from 1984-2012 across all dry forests (25.5 million ha) of the western USA to test these hypotheses. I also approximated projected effects of climatic change on high-severity fire in dry forests by applying existing projections. This analysis showed the rate of recent high-severity fire in dry forests is within the range of historical rates, or is too low, overall across dry forests and individually in 42 of 43 analysis regions. Significant upward trends were lacking overall from 1984-2012 for area burned and fraction burned at high severity. Upward trends in area burned at high severity were found in only 4 of 43 analysis regions. Projections for A.D. 2046-2065 showed high-severity fire would generally be still operating at, or have been restored to historical rates, although high projections suggest high-severity fire rotations that are too short could ensue in 6 of 43 regions. Programs to generally reduce fire severity in dry forests are not supported and have significant adverse ecological impacts, including reducing habitat for native species dependent on early-successional burned patches and decreasing landscape heterogeneity that confers resilience to climatic change. Some adverse ecological effects of high-severity fires are concerns. Managers and communities can improve our ability to live with high-severity fire in dry forests.

Forest landowner decisions and the value of information under fire risk.

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We estimate the value of three types of information about fire risk to a nonindustrial forest landowner: the relationship between fire arrival rates and stand age, the magnitude of fire arrival rates, and the efficacy of fuel reduction treatment. Our model incorporates planting density and the level and timing of fuel reduction treatment as landowner decisions. These...

A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

Treesearch

Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac C. Grenfell; Karin L. Riley; Karen C. Short

2011-01-01

This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for...

A review on the mechanism, risk evaluation, and prevention of coal spontaneous combustion in China.

PubMed

Kong, Biao; Li, Zenghua; Yang, Yongliang; Liu, Zhen; Yan, Daocheng

2017-10-01

In recent years, the ecology, security, and sustainable development of modern mines have become the theme of coal mine development worldwide. However, spontaneous combustion of coal under conditions of oxygen supply and automatic exothermic heating during coal mining lead to coalfield fires. Coal spontaneous combustion (CSC) causes huge economic losses and casualties, with the toxic and harmful gases produced during coal combustion not only polluting the working environment, but also causing great damage to the ecological environment. China is the world's largest coal producer and consumer; however, coal production in Chinese mines is seriously threatened by the CSC risk. Because deep underground mining methods are commonly adopted in Chinese coal mines, coupling disasters are frequent in these mines with the coalfield fires becoming increasingly serious. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed the development mechanism of CSC. The CSC risk assessment was performed from the aspects of prediction, detection, and determination of the "dangerous area" in a coal mine (i.e., the area most susceptible to fire hazards). A new geophysical method for CSC determination is proposed and analyzed. Furthermore, the main methods for CSC fire prevention and control and their advantages and disadvantages are analyzed. To eventually construct CSC prevention and control integration system, future developmental direction of CSC was given from five aspects. Our results can present a reference for the development of CSC fire prevention and control technology and promote the protection of ecological environment in China.

Forest-Fire Prevention Knowledge and Attitudes of Residents of Utah County, Utah, With Comparisons to Butte County, California

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christiansen, John R.; And Others

The use of land for outdoor recreation is becoming more and more important, and the increased use of the land has raised the risk of man-caused forest fires. The purposes of this study were (1) to determine the kinds and numbers of visits that people are making to public forests, (2) to identify the social characteristics of forest users, (3) to…

Using GRACE-Derived Water and Moisture Products as a Predictive Tool for Fire Response in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousseau, N. J.; Jensen, D.; Zajic, B.; Rodell, M.; Reager, J. T., II

2015-12-01

Understanding the relationship between wildfire activity and soil moisture in the United States has been difficult to assess, with limited ability to determine areas that are at high risk. This limitation is largely due to complex environmental factors at play, especially as they relate to alternating periods of wet and dry conditions, and the lack of remotely-sensed products. Recent drought conditions and accompanying low Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) have led to disastrous wildfire outbreaks causing economic loss, property damage, and environmental degradation. Thus, developing a programmed toolset to assess the relationship between soil moisture, which contributes greatly to FMC and fire severity, can establish the framework for determining overall wildfire risk. To properly evaluate these parameters, we used data assimilated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and data from the Fire Program Analysis fire-occurrence database (FPA FOD) to determine the extent soil moisture affects fire activity. Through these datasets, we produced correlation and regression maps at a coarse resolution of 0.25 degrees for the contiguous United States. These fire-risk products and toolsets proved the viability of this methodology, allowing for the future incorporation of more GRACE-derived water parameters, MODIS vegetation indices, and other environmental datasets to refine the model for fire risk. Additionally, they will allow assessment to national-scale early fire management and provide responders with a predictive tool to better employ early decision-support to areas of high risk during regions' respective fire season(s).

16 CFR § 1145.3 - Extremely flammable contact adhesives; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. § 1145.3 Section § 1145.3 Commercial...; risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire. (a) The Commission finds that it is in the public interest to regulate the risk of burns from explosive vapor ignition and flashback fire...

Risk Based Reliability Centered Maintenance of DOD Fire Protection Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

2.2.3 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis ( FMEA )............................ 2.2.4 Failure Mode Risk Characterization...Step 2 - System functions and functional failures definition Step 3 - Failure mode and effect analysis ( FMEA ) Step 4 - Failure mode risk...system). The Interface Location column identifies the location where the FMEA of the fire protection system began or stopped. For example, for the fire

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Relative importance of climate and mountain pine beetle outbreaks on the occurrence of large wildfires in the western USA.

PubMed

Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Kulakowski, Dominik

2016-12-01

Extensive outbreaks of bark beetles have killed trees across millions of hectares of forests and woodlands in western North America. These outbreaks have led to spirited scientific, public, and policy debates about consequential increases in fire risk, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where homes and communities are at particular risk from wildfires. At the same time, large wildfires have become more frequent across this region. Widespread expectations that outbreaks increase extent, severity, and/or frequency of wildfires are based partly on visible and dramatic changes in foliar moisture content and other fuel properties following outbreaks, as well as associated modeling projections. A competing explanation is that increasing wildfires are driven primarily by climatic extremes, which are becoming more common with climate change. However, the relative importance of bark beetle outbreaks vs. climate on fire occurrence has not been empirically examined across very large areas and remains poorly understood. The most extensive outbreaks of tree-killing insects across the western United States have been of mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae), which have killed trees over >650,000 km 2 , mostly in forests dominated by lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta). We show that outbreaks of MPB in lodgepole pine forests of the western United States have been less important than climatic variability for the occurrence of large fires over the past 29 years. In lodgepole pine forests in general, as well as those in the WUI, occurrence of large fires was determined primarily by current and antecedent high temperatures and low precipitation but was unaffected by preceding outbreaks. Trends of increasing co-occurrence of wildfires and outbreaks are due to a common climatic driver rather than interactions between these disturbances. Reducing wildfire risk hinges on addressing the underlying climatic drivers rather than treating beetle-affected forests. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Explosion and/or fire risk assessment methodology: a common approach, structured for underground coalmine environments / Metoda szacowania ryzyka wybuchu i pożarów: podejście ogólne, dostosowane do środowiska kopalni podziemnej

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioca, Ionel-Lucian; Moraru, Roland Iosif

2012-10-01

In order to meet statutory requirements concerning the workers health and safety, it is necessary for mine managers within Valea Jiului coal basin in Romania to address the potential for underground fires and explosions and their impact on the workforce and the mine ventilation systems. Highlighting the need for a unified and systematic approach of the specific risks, the authors are developing a general framework for fire/explosion risk assessment in gassy mines, based on the quantification of the likelihood of occurrence and gravity of the consequences of such undesired events and employing Root-Cause analysis method. It is emphasized that even a small fire should be regarded as being a major hazard from the point of view of explosion initiation, should a combustible atmosphere arise. The developed methodology, for the assessment of underground fire and explosion risks, is based on the known underground explosion hazards, fire engineering principles and fire test criteria for potentially combustible materials employed in mines.

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements.

PubMed

Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

2017-02-01

Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Peterson, Mark J; Jones, Daniel Steven

An ecological risk assessment was conducted at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, as a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF). The focus of the assessment was a testing program at Cibola Range, which involved an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, i.e., M60-A1 tanks. The problem formulation for the assessment included conceptual models for three component activities of the test, helicopter overflight, missile firing, and tracked vehicle movement, and two ecological endpoint entities, woody desert wash communities and desert mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus crooki) populations. An activity-specific risk assessment framework was available to provide guidancemore » for assessing risks associated with aircraft overflights. Key environmental features of the study area include barren desert pavement and tree-lined desert washes. The primary stressors associated with helicopter overflights were sound and the view of the aircraft. The primary stressor associated with Hellfire missile firing was sound. The principal stressor associated with tracked vehicle movement was soil disturbance, and a resulting, secondary stressor was hydrological change. Water loss to washes and wash vegetation was expected to result from increased ponding, infiltrationand/or evaporation associated with disturbances to desert pavement. A plan for estimating integrated risks from the three military activities was included in the problem formulation.« less

Relationships between annual plant productivity, nitrogen deposition and fire size in low-elevation California desert scrub

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rao, Leela E.; Matchett, John R.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Johns, Robert; Minnich, Richard A.; Allen, Edith B.

2014-01-01

Although precipitation is correlated with fire size in desert ecosystems and is typically used as an indirect surrogate for fine fuel load, a direct link between fine fuel biomass and fire size has not been established. In addition, nitrogen (N) deposition can affect fire risk through its fertilisation effect on fine fuel production. In this study, we examine the relationships between fire size and precipitation, N deposition and biomass with emphasis on identifying biomass and N deposition thresholds associated with fire spreading across the landscape. We used a 28-year fire record of 582 burns from low-elevation desert scrub to evaluate the relationship of precipitation, N deposition and biomass with the distribution of fire sizes using quantile regression. We found that models using annual biomass have similar predictive ability to those using precipitation and N deposition at the lower to intermediate portions of the fire size distribution. No distinct biomass threshold was found, although within the 99th percentile of the distribution fire size increased with greater than 125 g m–2 of winter fine fuel production. The study did not produce an N deposition threshold, but did validate the value of 125 g m–2 of fine fuel for spread of fires.

Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture to Estimate Fire Risk in Tropical Peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dadap, N.; Cobb, A.; Hoyt, A.; Harvey, C. F.; Konings, A. G.

2017-12-01

Tropical peatlands in Equatorial Asia have become more vulnerable to fire due to deforestation and peatland drainage over the last 30 years. In these regions, water table depth has been shown to play an important role in mediating fire risk as it serves as a proxy for peat moisture content. However, water table depth observations are sparse and expensive. Soil moisture could provide a more direct indicator of fire risk than water table depth. In this study, we use new soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite to demonstrate that - contrary to popular wisdom - remotely sensed soil moisture observations are possible over most Southeast Asian peatlands. Soil moisture estimation in this region was previously thought to be impossible over tropical peatlands because of dense vegetation cover. We show that vegetation density is sufficiently low across most Equatorial Asian peatlands to allow soil moisture estimation, and hypothesize that deforestation and other anthropogenic changes in land cover have combined to reduce overall vegetation density sufficient to allow soil moisture estimation. We further combine burned area estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database and SMAP soil moisture retrievals to show that soil moisture provides a strong signal for fire risk in peatlands, with fires occurring at a much greater rate over drier soils. We will also develop an explicit fire risk model incorporating soil moisture with additional climatic, land cover, and anthropogenic predictor variables.

The sociology of landowner interest in restoring fire-adapted, biodiverse habitats in the wildland-urban interface of Oregon's Willamette Valley ecoregion

Treesearch

Max Nielsen-Pincus; Robert G. Ribe; Bart R. Johnson

2011-01-01

In many parts of the world, the combined effects of wildfire, climate change, and population growth in the wildland-urban interface pose increasing risks to both people and biodiversity. These risks are exemplified in western Oregon's Willamette Valley Ecoregion, where population is projected to double by 2050 and climate change is expected to increase wildfire...

The Impact of Reduced Ignition Propensity Cigarette Regulation on Smoking Behavior in a Cohort of Ontario Smokers

PubMed Central

O’Connor, Richard J.; Fix, Brian V.; Hammond, David; Giovino, Gary A.; Hyland, Andrew; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Cummings, K. Michael

2016-01-01

Introduction This study examined the degree to which legislation intended to reduce the incidence of cigarette-caused fires influenced the behaviors of a cohort of smokers in Ontario, Canada. Evaluating the effectiveness of existing cigarette fire-safety has the potential to inform the development of similar standards in other jurisdictions. Methods A random digit dialed telephone survey of adult smokers residing in the Province of Ontario was conducted between July and September of 2005, ending one month prior to the RIP regulation’s implementation date. A follow-up survey was conducted between August and November of 2006 to examine changes in engaging in fire risk behaviors, perceptions of changes to cigarettes, and behavioral changes in response to smoking reduced ignition propensity cigarettes. Of the baseline participants, 73.0% (n=435) completed the follow-up survey. Results The frequency of fire risk behaviors was similar across both surveys. At baseline, only 3.7% (95% CI: 2.20–5.76) of smokers interviewed reported that their cigarettes went out on their own ‘often’ while smoking. Following the implementation of the reduced ignition propensity legislation, this increased significantly to 14.7% (95% CI: 11.41–18.42). Discussion The results observed in this study suggest that the proportion of Ontario smokers who reported engaging in behavior such as leaving a cigarette burning unattended and smoking in bed actually declined, although these declines were not statistically significant across all measures of fire risk. As other nations look to implement RIP regulations, the Canadian experience thus far has revealed no risk compensatory behaviors that would offset the potential public health benefit of the regulations. PMID:20643872

Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How Far is it Efficient and Sustainable?

PubMed

Curt, Thomas; Frejaville, Thibaut

2018-03-01

A new fire policy reinforcing aggressive fire suppression was established in Mediterranean France in response to the devastating wildfires of the 1990s, but to what extent this has changed fire activity yet remains poorly understood. For this purpose, we compared the number and location of ignitions and of burned areas between two 20-year periods (1975-1994 vs. 1995-2014), in parallel to the changes in fuel covering, human activity promoting ignitions, and fire weather. The number of fires decreased almost continuously since 1975, but sharply after 1994, suggesting an effect of better fire prevention due to the new policy. But the major change in fire activity is a considerable reduction in fire size and burned areas after 1994, especially during summer and in the most fire-prone places, in response to massive efforts put into fire suppression. These reductions have occurred while the covering by fuel biomass, the human pressure on ignition, and the fire weather index increased, thus making the study area more hazardous. Our results suggest that a strategy of aggressive fire suppression has great potential for counterbalancing the effects of climate changes and human activities and for controlling fire activity in the short term. However, we discuss whether such a suppression-oriented approach is sustainable in the context of global changes, which cast new fire challenges as demonstrated by the devastative fires of 2003 and 2016. We advocate for a more comprehensive fire policy to come. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

An analysis on Wildland Urban Interface in North Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arca, B.; Pellizzaro, G.; Canu, A.; Pintus, G. V.; Ferrara, R.; Duce, P.

2012-04-01

Climate variability and drought, typical of the Mediterranean climate, together with different anthropogenic disturbances (modifications of land use, deforestation, grazing, forest fires, etc.) makes the Mediterranean basin ecosystems extremely sensitive and vulnerable. In the last three decades, an increasing number of fires threatening the wildland urban interface (WUI) was observed. In Sardinia, this phenomenon is particularly evident in tourist and coastal areas where a large number of resorts is built within and surrounded by Mediterranean vegetation that is highly prone to events of wildfire. In these situations, the related risk of damage for villages, tourist resorts, other human activities and people is elevated especially in summer when the presence of human people is highest and meteorological conditions are extreme. In addition, fire can have significant effect on the hydrological response of the WUI causing the intensification of the erosive processes. Therefore, the development of planning policies is required in order to implement strategies to prevent and reduce wildfire and soil erosion risk in wildland urban interface areas. The main aims of this work are i) to assess presence and characteristics of wildland urban interface in a touristic areas of North Sardinia and ii) to evaluate fire danger and soil erosion risk in the studied area. The study was carried out in a coastal area located in North Sardinia, characterized by strong touristic development in the last thirty years. In that area, the characterization and mapping of the WUI were performed. In addition several simulation were carried out by the Farsite fire area simulator with the aim to study the spatial pattern of the fire danger factors in the vegetated areas closer to the WUI. Finally, maps of soil erosion were produced for the identification of the areas at high erosion risk in the WUI. This work is supported by MIIUR - Metodologie e indicatori per la valutazione del rischio di Incendio nelle aree di Interfaccia Urbano Rurale in ambiente mediterraneo. Legge Regionale 7 agosto 2007, n. 7.

An Assessment of the Risks Presented by the Use of Carbon Fiber Composites in Commercial Aviation. Volume 1: Final Report. Volume 2: Supporting Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalelkar, A. S.; Fiksel, J.; Raj, P. P. K.; Rosenfield, D. B.

1979-01-01

Carbon fiber (CF) composites are being used to an increasing extent in commercial aircraft, due to their excellent structural properties. Since carbon fibers are highly conductive, a potential risk was identified in the event that an aircraft with CF composite structures is involved in an accidental fire. If carbon fibers are released from the fire, they could disperse in the atmosphere and eventually cause damaging short circuits in electronic equipment at remote locations. This phenomenon could conceivably result in economic losses. The purpose of this study was to assess the risks presented to the nation as a whole by the use of CF composites in commercial aircraft, in terms of the potential economic losses from air carrier accidents.

Winter grazing decreases wildfire risk, severity, and behavior in semi-arid sagebrush rangelands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wildfires are an ecological and economic risk for many semi-arid rangelands which has resulted in increased pressure for pre-suppression management of fuels. In rangelands, fuel management treatment options are limited by costs. We evaluated winter grazing as a tool to manage fuels and alter fire ...

EPRI/NRC-RES fire human reliability analysis guidelines.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lewis, Stuart R.; Cooper, Susan E.; Najafi, Bijan

2010-03-01

During the 1990s, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) developed methods for fire risk analysis to support its utility members in the preparation of responses to Generic Letter 88-20, Supplement 4, 'Individual Plant Examination - External Events' (IPEEE). This effort produced a Fire Risk Assessment methodology for operations at power that was used by the majority of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) in support of the IPEEE program and several NPPs overseas. Although these methods were acceptable for accomplishing the objectives of the IPEEE, EPRI and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) recognized that they required upgrades to support currentmore » requirements for risk-informed, performance-based (RI/PB) applications. In 2001, EPRI and the USNRC's Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) embarked on a cooperative project to improve the state-of-the-art in fire risk assessment to support a new risk-informed environment in fire protection. This project produced a consensus document, NUREG/CR-6850 (EPRI 1011989), entitled 'Fire PRA Methodology for Nuclear Power Facilities' which addressed fire risk for at power operations. NUREG/CR-6850 developed high level guidance on the process for identification and inclusion of human failure events (HFEs) into the fire PRA (FPRA), and a methodology for assigning quantitative screening values to these HFEs. It outlined the initial considerations of performance shaping factors (PSFs) and related fire effects that may need to be addressed in developing best-estimate human error probabilities (HEPs). However, NUREG/CR-6850 did not describe a methodology to develop best-estimate HEPs given the PSFs and the fire-related effects. In 2007, EPRI and RES embarked on another cooperative project to develop explicit guidance for estimating HEPs for human failure events under fire generated conditions, building upon existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This document provides a methodology and guidance for conducting a fire HRA. This process includes identification and definition of post-fire human failure events, qualitative analysis, quantification, recovery, dependency, and uncertainty. This document provides three approaches to quantification: screening, scoping, and detailed HRA. Screening is based on the guidance in NUREG/CR-6850, with some additional guidance for scenarios with long time windows. Scoping is a new approach to quantification developed specifically to support the iterative nature of fire PRA quantification. Scoping is intended to provide less conservative HEPs than screening, but requires fewer resources than a detailed HRA analysis. For detailed HRA quantification, guidance has been developed on how to apply existing methods to assess post-fire fire HEPs.« less

Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

2011-01-01

Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy: A vision for an innovative and integrated approach to managing the risks

Treesearch

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy Project Management Team

2006-01-01

The Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy (CWFS) provides a vision for a new, innovative, and integrated approach to wildland fire management in Canada. It was developed under the auspices of the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and seeks to balance the social, ecological, and economic aspects of wildland fire through a risk management framework that emphasizes hazard...

PREFER: a European service providing forest fire management support products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftychidis, George; Laneve, Giovanni; Ferrucci, Fabrizio; Sebastian Lopez, Ana; Lourenco, Louciano; Clandillon, Stephen; Tampellini, Lucia; Hirn, Barbara; Diagourtas, Dimitris; Leventakis, George

2015-06-01

PREFER is a Copernicus project of the EC-FP7 program which aims developing spatial information products that may support fire prevention and burned areas restoration decisions and establish a relevant web-based regional service for making these products available to fire management stakeholders. The service focuses to the Mediterranean region, where fire risk is high and damages from wildfires are quite important, and develop its products for pilot areas located in Spain, Portugal, Italy, France and Greece. PREFER aims to allow fire managers to have access to online resources, which shall facilitate fire prevention measures, fire hazard and risk assessment, estimation of fire impact and damages caused by wildfire as well as support monitoring of post-fire regeneration and vegetation recovery. It makes use of a variety of products delivered by space borne sensors and develop seasonal and daily products using multi-payload, multi-scale and multi-temporal analysis of EO data. The PREFER Service portfolio consists of two main suite of products. The first refers to mapping products for supporting decisions concerning the Preparedness/Prevention Phase (ISP Service). The service delivers Fuel, Hazard and Fire risk maps for this purpose. Furthermore the PREFER portfolio includes Post-fire vegetation recovery, burn scar maps, damage severity and 3D fire damage assessment products in order to support relative assessments required in context of the Recovery/Reconstruction Phase (ISR Service) of fire management.

Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hawbaker, Todd J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hammer, Roger B.; Keuler, Nicholas S.; Clayton, Murray K.

2013-01-01

National-scale analyses of fire occurrence are needed to prioritize fire policy and management activities across the United States. However, the drivers of national-scale patterns of fire occurrence are not well understood, and how the relative importance of human or biophysical factors varies across the country is unclear. Our research goal was to model the drivers of fire occurrence within ecoregions across the conterminous United States. We used generalized linear models to compare the relative influence of human, vegetation, climate, and topographic variables on fire occurrence in the United States, as measured by MODIS active fire detections collected between 2000 and 2006. We constructed models for all fires and for large fires only and generated predictive maps to quantify fire occurrence probabilities. Areas with high fire occurrence probabilities were widespread in the Southeast, and localized in the Mountain West, particularly in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Probabilities for large-fire occurrence were generally lower, but hot spots existed in the western and south-central United States The probability of fire occurrence is a critical component of fire risk assessments, in addition to vegetation type, fire behavior, and the values at risk. Many of the hot spots we identified have extensive development in the wildland–urban interface and are near large metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrated that human variables were important predictors of both all fires and large fires and frequently exhibited nonlinear relationships. However, vegetation, climate, and topography were also significant variables in most ecoregions. If recent housing growth trends and fire occurrence patterns continue, these areas will continue to challenge policies and management efforts seeking to balance the risks generated by wildfires with the ecological benefits of fire.

Firefighter attitudes, norms, beliefs, barriers, and behaviors toward post-fire decontamination processes in an era of increased cancer risk.

PubMed

Harrison, Tyler R; Muhamad, Jessica Wendorf; Yang, Fan; Morgan, Susan E; Talavera, Ed; Caban-Martinez, Alberto; Kobetz, Erin

2018-04-01

Firefighters are exposed to carcinogens such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during fires and from their personal protective equipment (PPE). Recent research has shown that decontamination processes can reduce contamination on both gear and skin. While firefighter cultures that honor dirty gear are changing, little is known about current attitudes and behaviors toward decontamination in the fire service. Four hundred eighty-five firefighters from four departments completed surveys about their attitudes, beliefs, perceived norms, barriers, and behaviors toward post-fire decontamination processes. Overall, firefighters reported positive attitudes, beliefs, and perceived norms about decontamination, but showering after a fire was the only decontamination process that occurred regularly, with field decontamination, use of cleansing wipes, routine gear cleaning, and other behaviors all occurring less frequently. Firefighters reported time and concerns over wet gear as barriers to decontamination.

Wildfires

MedlinePlus

... is an unplanned fire that burns in a natural area such as a forest, grassland, or prairie. Wildfires can: Often be caused by humans or lightning. Cause flooding or disrupt transportation, gas, power, and communications. Happen anywhere, anytime. Risk increases ...

Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegoke, J. O.

2015-12-01

Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

Assessment of dermal hazard from acid burns with fire retardant garments in a full-size simulation of an engulfment flash fire.

PubMed

Mackay, Christopher E; Vivanco, Stephanie N; Yeboah, George; Vercellone, Jeff

2016-09-01

There have been concerns that fire-derived acid gases could aggravate thermal burns for individuals wearing synthetic flame retardant garments. A comparative risk assessment was performed on three commercial flame retardant materials with regard to relative hazards associated with acidic combustion gases to skin during a full engulfment flash fire event. The tests were performed in accordance with ASTM F1930 and ISO 13506: Standard Test Method for Evaluation of Flame Resistant Clothing for Protection against Fire Simulations Using an Instrumented Manikin. Three fire retardant textiles were tested: an FR treated cotton/nylon blend, a low Protex(®) modacrylic blend, and a medium Protex(®) modacrylic blend. The materials, in the form of whole body coveralls, were subjected to propane-fired flash conditions of 84kW/m(2) in a full sized simulator for a duration of either 3 or 4s. Ion traps consisting of wetted sodium carbonate-impregnated cellulose in Teflon holders were placed on the chest and back both above and under the standard undergarments. The ion traps remained in position from the time of ignition until 5min post ignition. Results indicated that acid deposition did increase with modacrylic content from 0.9μmol/cm(2) for the cotton/nylon, to 12μmol/cm(2) for the medium modacrylic blend. The source of the acidity was dominated by hydrogen chloride. Discoloration was inversely proportional to the amount of acid collected on the traps. A risk assessment was performed on the potential adverse impact of acid gases on both the skin and open wounds. The results indicated that the deposition and dissolution of the acid gases in surficial fluid media (perspiration and blood plasma) resulted in an increase in acidity, but not sufficient to induce irritation/skin corrosion or to cause necrosis in open third degree burns. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Lessons learned from post-wildfire monitoring and implications for land management and regional drinking water treatability in Southern Rockies of Alberta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diiwu, J.; Silins, U.; Kevin, B.; Anderson, A.

2008-12-01

Like many areas of the Rocky Mountains, Alberta's forests on the eastern slopes of the Rockies have been shaped by decades of successful fire suppression. These forests are at high risk to fire and large scale insect infestation, and climate change will continue to increase these risks. These headwaters forests provide the vast majority of usable surface water supplies to large region of the province, and large scale natural disasters can have dramatic effects on water quality and water availability. The population in the region has steadily increased and now this area is the main source water for many Alberta municipalities, including the City of Calgary, which has a population of over one million. In 2003 a fire burned 21,000 ha in the southern foothills area. The government land managers were concerned about the downstream implications of the fire and salvage operations, however there was very limited scientific information to guide the decision making. This led to establishment of the Southern Rockies Watershed Project, which is a partnership between Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, the provincial government department responsible for land management and the University of Alberta. After five years of data collection, the project has produced quantitative information that was not previously available about the effects of fire and management interventions such as salvage logging on headwaters and regional water quality. This information can be used to make decisions on forest operations, fire suppression, and post-fire salvage operations. In the past few years this project has captured the interest of large municipalities and water treatment researchers who are keen to investigate the potential implications of large natural disturbances to large and small drinking water treatment facilities. Examples from this project will be used to highlight the challenges and successes encountered while bridging the gap between science and land management policy.

Safety measures for prevention of PCB accidents.

PubMed Central

Pajari, J

1985-01-01

This paper attempts to clarify the most common measures available for the fire and electrical engineer in the prevention of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) hazards. It points out the risks and the potential for making large risks involved in the use of transformers and capacitors more manageable. The focus in solving the PCB problem is on priority. This should be reflected in the agenda of the workshop: it should discuss not only transformers and capacitors as such, but deal more with questions concerning waste disposal, getting correct information to people on substances containing PCBs and on the proper and nonpanicky handling of such substances. The PCB issue does not lend itself to any black and white solution. Instead, a number of different aspects have to be taken into account. Any solutions arrived at are therefore always compromises between risk evaluation and cost effectiveness. Reduction of PCB risks does not have to result, for example, in an increase in fire risks. It is preferable to move step by step and avoid making irretractable decisions. Alternatives available for replacing PCB-filled devices or the widely used method of refilling PCB-filled transformers with silicone oils are not discussed. Refilling is not dealt with because its capacity to reduce the fire risk sufficiently in locations where these transformers are usually found in northern Europe is not known with certainty. PMID:3928364

Temporal trend in the levels of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons emitted in a big tire landfill fire in Spain: Risk assessment for human health.

PubMed

Rovira, Joaquim; Domínguez-Morueco, Noelia; Nadal, Martí; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2018-02-23

In May 2016, a big fire occurred in an illegal landfill placed in Seseña (Toledo, Spain), where between 70,000 and 90,000 tons of tires had been accumulated during years. Just after the fire, and because of the increase of airborne PAHs, we found that cancer risks for the population living in the neighborhood of the landfill were 3-5 times higher than for the rest of inhabitants of Seseña. Some months after our initial (June 2016) study, two sampling campaigns (December 2016 and May 2017) were performed to assess the temporal trends of the environmental levels of PAHs, as well as to reassure that these chemicals did not pose any risk for the human health of Seseña inhabitants. In soils, the total concentrations of the 16 PAHs (December 2016), as well as the sum of the seven carcinogenic PAHs, showed values between 8.5 and 94.7 ng g -1 and between 1.0 and 42.3 ng g -1 , respectively. In May 2017, a significant decrease (between 4 and 38 times) in the levels of PAHs in air was observed, with total concentrations ranging between 3.49 and 5.06 ng m -3 . One year after the fire, the cancer risk at different zones of Seseña was similar, being lower than that found in June 2016, and negligible according to national and international agencies.

Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

2011-09-01

In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

Wildland fire smoke and human health.

PubMed

Cascio, Wayne E

2018-05-15

The natural cycle of landscape fire maintains the ecological health of the land, yet adverse health effects associated with exposure to emissions from wildfire produce public health and clinical challenges. Systematic reviews conclude that a positive association exists between exposure to wildfire smoke or wildfire particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and all-cause mortality and respiratory morbidity. Respiratory morbidity includes asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), bronchitis and pneumonia. The epidemiological data linking wildfire smoke exposure to cardiovascular mortality and morbidity is mixed, and inconclusive. More studies are needed to define the risk for common and costly clinical cardiovascular outcomes. Susceptible populations include people with respiratory and possibly cardiovascular diseases, middle-aged and older adults, children, pregnant women and the fetus. The increasing frequency of large wildland fires, the expansion of the wildland-urban interface, the area between unoccupied land and human development; and an increasing and aging U.S. population are increasing the number of people at-risk from wildfire smoke, thus highlighting the necessity for broadening stakeholder cooperation to address the health effects of wildfire. While much is known, many questions remain and require further population-based, clinical and occupational health research. Health effects measured over much wider geographical areas and for longer periods time will better define the risk for adverse health outcomes, identify the sensitive populations and assess the influence of social factors on the relationship between exposure and health outcomes. Improving exposure models and access to large clinical databases foreshadow improved risk analysis facilitating more effective risk management. Fuel and smoke management remains an important component for protecting population health. Improved smoke forecasting and translation of environmental health science into communication of actionable information for use by public health officials, healthcare professionals and the public is needed to motivate behaviors that lower exposure and protect public health, particularly among those at high risk. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Efficacy of a proactive health and safety risk management system in the fire service.

PubMed

Poplin, Gerald S; Griffin, Stephanie; Pollack Porter, Keshia; Mallett, Joshua; Hu, Chengcheng; Day-Nash, Virginia; Burgess, Jefferey L

2018-04-16

This study evaluated the efficacy of a fire department proactive risk management program aimed at reducing firefighter injuries and their associated costs. Injury data were collected for the intervention fire department and a contemporary control department. Workers' compensation claim frequency and costs were analyzed for the intervention fire department only. Total, exercise, patient transport, and fireground operations injury rates were calculated for both fire departments. There was a post-intervention average annual reduction in injuries (13%), workers' compensation injury claims (30%) and claims costs (21%). Median monthly injury rates comparing the post-intervention to the pre-intervention period did not show statistically significant changes in either the intervention or control fire department. Reduced workers' compensation claims and costs were observed following the risk management intervention, but changes in injury rates were not statistically significant.

Setting priorities for private land conservation in fire-prone landscapes: Are fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation competing or compatible objectives?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Butsic, Van; Bar-Massada, Avi; Keeley, Jon E.; Tracey, Jeff A.; Fisher, Robert N.

2016-01-01

Although wildfire plays an important role in maintaining biodiversity in many ecosystems, fire management to protect human assets is often carried out by different agencies than those tasked for conserving biodiversity. In fact, fire risk reduction and biodiversity conservation are often viewed as competing objectives. Here we explored the role of management through private land conservation and asked whether we could identify private land acquisition strategies that fulfill the mutual objectives of biodiversity conservation and fire risk reduction, or whether the maximization of one objective comes at a detriment to the other. Using a fixed budget and number of homes slated for development, we simulated 20 years of housing growth under alternative conservation selection strategies, and then projected the mean risk of fires destroying structures and the area and configuration of important habitat types in San Diego County, California, USA. We found clear differences in both fire risk projections and biodiversity impacts based on the way conservation lands are prioritized for selection, but these differences were split between two distinct groupings. If no conservation lands were purchased, or if purchases were prioritized based on cost or likelihood of development, both the projected fire risk and biodiversity impacts were much higher than if conservation lands were purchased in areas with high fire hazard or high species richness. Thus, conserving land focused on either of the two objectives resulted in nearly equivalent mutual benefits for both. These benefits not only resulted from preventing development in sensitive areas, but they were also due to the different housing patterns and arrangements that occurred as development was displaced from those areas. Although biodiversity conflicts may still arise using other fire management strategies, this study shows that mutual objectives can be attained through land-use planning in this region. These results likely generalize to any place where high species richness overlaps with hazardous wildland vegetation.

Community vulnerability to health impacts of wildland fire ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Identifying communities vulnerable to adverse health effects from exposure to wildfire smoke may help prepare responses, increase the resilience to smoke and improve public health outcomes during smoke days. We developed a Community Health-Vulnerability Index (CHVI) based on factors known to increase the risks of health effects from air pollution and wildfire smoke exposures. These factors included county prevalence rates for asthma in children and adults, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, percent of population 65 years of age and older, and indicators of socioeconomic status including poverty, education, income and unemployment. Using air quality simulated for the period between 2008 and 2012 over the continental U.S. we also characterized the population size at risk with respect to the level and duration of exposure to fire-originated fine particulate matter (fire-PM2.5) and CHVI. We estimate that 10% of the population (30.5 million) lived in the areas where the contribution of fire-PM2.5 to annual average ambient PM2.5 was high (>1.5 µg m3) and that 10.3 million individuals experienced unhealthy air quality levels for more than 10 days due to smoke. Using CHVI we identified the most vulnerable counties and determined that these communities experience more smoke exposures in comparison to less vulnerable communities. We describe the development of an index of community vulnerability for the health effects of smoke based o

Linking snake habitat use to nest predation risk in grassland birds: the dangers of shrub cover.

PubMed

Klug, Page E; Jackrel, Sara L; With, Kimberly A

2010-03-01

Extremes in rangeland management, varying from too-frequent fire and intensive grazing to the suppression of both, threaten rangeland ecosystems worldwide. Intensive fire and grazing denude and homogenize vegetation whereas their suppression increases woody cover. Although habitat loss is implicated in grassland bird declines, degradation through intensive management or neglect also decreases breeding habitat and may reduce nesting success through increased rates of nest predation. Snakes are important nest predators, but little is known about how habitat use in snakes relates to predation risk for grassland birds nesting within tallgrass prairie subjected to different grazing and fire frequencies. We evaluated nest survival in the context of habitat used by nesting songbirds and two bird-eating snakes, the eastern yellowbelly racer Coluber constrictor flaviventris and Great Plains ratsnake Pantherophis emoryi. Daily nest survival rates decreased with increasing shrub cover and decreasing vegetation height, which characterize grasslands that have been neglected or intensively managed, respectively. Discriminant function analysis revealed that snake habitats were characterized by higher shrub cover, whereas successful nests were more likely to occur in areas with tall grass and forbs but reduced shrub cover. Because snakes often use shrub habitat, birds nesting in areas with increased shrub cover may be at higher risk of nest predation by snakes in addition to other predators known to use shrub habitat (e.g., mid-sized carnivores and avian predators). Depredated nests also occurred outside the discriminant space of the snakes, indicating that other predators (e.g., ground squirrels Spermophilus spp. and bullsnakes Pituophis catenifer) may be important in areas with denuded cover. Targeted removal of shrubs may increase nest success by minimizing the activity of nest predators attracted to shrub cover.

Wildland fire risk and social vulnerability in the Southeastern United States: An exploratory spatial data analysis approach

Treesearch

Cassandra Johnson Gaither; N.C. Poudyal; S. Goodrick; J.M. Bowker; S. Malone; J. Gan

2011-01-01

The southeastern U.S. is one of the more wildland fire prone areas of the country and also contains some of the poorest or most socially vulnerable rural communities. Our project addresses wildland fire risk in this part of the U.S and its intersection with social vulnerability. We examine spatial association between high wildland fire prone areas which also rank high...

Cast Coil Transformer Fire Susceptibility and Reliability Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-04-01

transformers reduce risk to the user compared to liquid-filled units, eliminate environmental impacts, are more efficient than most transformer designs, and...filled units, eliminate environmental impacts, arc more efficient than most transformer designs, and add minimal risk to the facility in a fire situation...add minimal risk to the facility in a fire situation. Cast coil transformers have a long record of operation and have proven to be reliable and

Tailored stakeholder products help provide a vulnerability and adaptation assessment of Greek forests due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Roussos, Anargyros

2014-05-01

Greece, being part of the eastern Mediterranean basin, is an area particularly vulnerable to climate change and associated forest fire risk. The aim of this study is to assess the vulnerability of Greek forests to fire risk occurrence and identify potential adaptation options within the context of climate change through continuous interaction with local stakeholders. To address their needs, the following tools for the provision of climate information services were developed: 1. An application providing fire risk forecasts for the following 3 days (http://cirrus.meteo.noa.gr/forecast/bolam/index.htm) was developed from NOA to address the needs of short term fire planners. 2. A web-based application providing long term fire risk and other fire related indices changes due to climate change (time horizon up to 2050 and 2100) was developed in collaboration with the WWF Greece office to address the needs of long term fire policy makers (http://www.oikoskopio.gr/map/). 3. An educational tool was built in order to complement the two web-based tools and to further expand knowledge in fire risk modeling to address the needs for in-depth training. In particular, the second product provided the necessary information to assess the exposure to forest fires. To this aim, maps depicting the days with elevated fire risk (FWI>30) both for the control (1961-1990) and the near future period (2021-2050) were created by the web-application. FWI is a daily index that provides numerical ratings of relative fire potential based solely on weather observations. The meteorological inputs to the FWI System are daily noon values of temperature, air relative humidity, 10m wind speed and precipitation during the previous 24 hours. It was found that eastern lowlands are more exposed to fire risk followed by eastern high elevation areas, for both the control and near future period. The next step towards vulnerability assessment was to address sensitivity, ie the human-environmental conditions that can worsen or ameliorate the hazard. In our study static information concerning fire affecting factors, namely the topography and vegetation, was used to create a fire hazard map in order to assess the sensitivity factor. Land cover types for the year 2007 were combined with topographic information deriving from a digital elevation model order to produce these maps. High elevation continental areas were found to be the most sensitive areas followed by the lowland continental areas. Exposure and sensitivity were combined to produce the overall impact of climate change to forest fire risk. The adaptive capacity is defined by the ability of forests to adapt to changing environmental conditions. To assess the adaptive capacity of Greek forests, a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) tool was implemented and used by the stakeholders. The major proposed adaptation measures for Greek forests included fire prevention measures and the inclusion of the private forest covered areas in the fire fighting. Finally, vulnerability of Greek forest to fire was estimated as the overall impact of climate change minus the forests' adaptive capacity and was found to be medium for most areas in the country. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIM-RUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010-265192.

Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements

PubMed Central

Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

2017-01-01

Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix. PMID:28157149

A GIS-based approach for comparative analysis of potential fire risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ying; Hu, Lieqiu; Liu, Huiping

2007-06-01

Urban fires are one of the most important sources of property loss and human casualty and therefore it is necessary to assess the potential fire risk with consideration of urban community safety. Two evaluation models are proposed, both of which are integrated with GIS. One is the single factor model concerning the accessibility of fire passage and the other is grey clustering approach based on the multifactor system. In the latter model, fourteen factors are introduced and divided into four categories involving security management, evacuation facility, construction resistance and fire fighting capability. A case study on campus of Beijing Normal University is presented to express the potential risk assessment models in details. A comparative analysis of the two models is carried out to validate the accuracy. The results are approximately consistent with each other. Moreover, modeling with GIS promotes the efficiency the potential risk assessment.

Prevalence and correlates of fire-setting in the United States: results from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC).

PubMed

Blanco, Carlos; Alegría, Analucía A; Petry, Nancy M; Grant, Jon E; Simpson, H Blair; Liu, Shang-Min; Grant, Bridget F; Hasin, Deborah S

2010-09-01

To estimate the prevalence, sociodemographic correlates, comorbidity, and rates of mental health service utilization of fire-setters in the general population. A face-to-face survey of more than 43,000 adults aged 18 years and older residing in households was conducted during the 2001-2002 period. Diagnoses of mood, anxiety, substance use disorders, and personality disorders were based on the Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule-DSM-IV Version (AUDADIS-IV). The prevalence of lifetime fire-setting in the US population was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.0-1.3). Being male, never married, and US-born and having a yearly income over $70,000 were risk factors for lifetime fire-setting, while being Asian or Hispanic and older than 30 years were protective factors for lifetime fire-setting. The strongest associations with fire-setting were with disorders often associated with deficits in impulse control, such as antisocial personality disorder (ASPD) (odds ratio [OR] = 21.8; CI, 6.6-28.5), drug dependence (OR = 7.6; 95% CI, 5.2-10.9), bipolar disorder (OR = 5.6; 95% CI, 4.0-7.9), and pathological gambling (OR = 4.8; 95% CI, 2.4-9.5). Associations between fire-setting and all antisocial behaviors were positive and significant. A lifetime history of fire-setting, even in the absence of an ASPD diagnosis, was strongly associated with substantial rates of Axis I comorbidity, a history of antisocial behavior, a family history of other antisocial behaviors, decreased functioning, and higher treatment-seeking rates. Our findings suggest that fire-setting may be better understood as a behavioral manifestation of a broader impaired control syndrome and part of the externalizing spectrum. Fire-setting and other antisocial behaviors tend to be strongly associated with each other and increase the risk of lifetime and current psychiatric disorders, even in the absence of a DSM-IV diagnosis of ASPD. © Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia.

PubMed

Aragão, Luiz Eduardo O C; Malhi, Yadvinder; Barbier, Nicolas; Lima, Andre; Shimabukuro, Yosio; Anderson, Liana; Saatchi, Sassan

2008-05-27

Understanding the interplay between climate and land-use dynamics is a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change. In this study, we analyse satellite-derived monthly and annual time series of rainfall, fires and deforestation to explicitly quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these three variables, with a particular focus on the Amazonian drought of 2005. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality with one peak per year for all variables analysed, except deforestation. For the annual cycle, we found correlations above 90% with a time lag between variables. Deforestation and fires reach the highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. The cumulative number of hot pixels was linearly related to the size of the area deforested annually from 1998 to 2004 (r2=0.84, p=0.004). During the 2005 drought, the number of hot pixels increased 43% in relation to the expected value for a similar deforested area (approx. 19000km2). We demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as land-use change, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region even with decreased deforestation rates. We may expect that the ongoing deforestation, currently based on slash and burn procedures, and the use of fires for land management in Amazonia will intensify the impact of droughts associated with natural climate variability or human-induced climate change and, therefore, a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires.

Application of Paste Backfill in Underground Coal Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masniyom, M.; Drebenstedt, C.

2009-04-01

Coal fires are known from different coalfields worldwide. China, India, USA, Australia, Indonesia and South Africa are the main countries affected by coal fires. The fires is thermally intensive and cause numerous sinkholes, large-scale subsidence, air pollution, global warming, loss of mining productivity and increasing safety risk. The Wuda Inner Mongolia coalfield has been selected as a possible test area for paste backfill. The traditional methods, executed by fire fighting teams, by covering the coalfire areas with soil, blasting burning coal outcrops and injecting water in the subsurface fire pockets are continuously improved and extended. Initiatives to introduce modern techniques, such as backfill placement at fracture and borehole, to cool down the burning coal and cut off the air supply. This study is to investigate backfill materials and techniques suited for underground coal fires. Laboratory tests were carried out on physical, chemical and mechanical properties of different backfill materials and mixtures thereof. Special attention was paid to materials generated as by-products and other cheaply available materials e.g. fly ash from power plants. There is a good chance that one of the different material mixtures investigated can be used as a technically and economically viable backfill for underground coal fires.

A systematic conservation planning approach to fire risk management in Natura 2000 sites.

PubMed

Foresta, Massimiliano; Carranza, Maria Laura; Garfì, Vittorio; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Marchetti, Marco; Loy, Anna

2016-10-01

A primary challenge in conservation biology is to preserve the most representative biodiversity while simultaneously optimizing the efforts associated with conservation. In Europe, the implementation of the Natura 2000 network requires protocols to recognize and map threats to biodiversity and to identify specific mitigation actions. We propose a systematic conservation planning approach to optimize management actions against specific threats based on two fundamental parameters: biodiversity values and threat pressure. We used the conservation planning software Marxan to optimize a fire management plan in a Natura 2000 coastal network in southern Italy. We address three primary questions: i) Which areas are at high fire risk? ii) Which areas are the most valuable for threatened biodiversity? iii) Which areas should receive priority risk-mitigation actions for the optimal effect?, iv) which fire-prevention actions are feasible in the management areas?. The biodiversity values for the Natura 2000 spatial units were derived from the distribution maps of 18 habitats and 89 vertebrate species of concern in Europe (Habitat Directive 92/43/EEC). The threat pressure map, defined as fire probability, was obtained from digital layers of fire risk and of fire frequency. Marxan settings were defined as follows: a) planning units of 40 × 40 m, b) conservation features defined as all habitats and vertebrate species of European concern occurring in the study area, c) conservation targets defined according with fire sensitivity and extinction risk of conservation features, and d) costs determined as the complement of fire probabilities. We identified 23 management areas in which to concentrate efforts for the optimal reduction of fire-induced effects. Because traditional fire prevention is not feasible for most of policy habitats included in the management areas, alternative prevention practices were identified that allows the conservation of the vegetation structure. The proposed approach has potential applications for multiple landscapes, threats and spatial scales and could be extended to other valuable natural areas, including protected areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

Treesearch

Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy Ascher

2011-01-01

Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

Alcohol skin preparation causes surgical fires

PubMed Central

Rocos, B; Donaldson, LJ

2012-01-01

INTRODUCTION Surgical fires are a rare but serious preventable safety risk in modern hospitals. Data from the US show that up to 650 surgical fires occur each year, with up to 5% causing death or serious harm. This study used the National Reporting and Learning Service (NRLS) database at the National Patient Safety Agency to explore whether spirit-based surgical skin preparation fluid contributes to the cause of surgical fires. METHODS The NRLS database was interrogated for all incidents of surgical fires reported between 1 March 2004 and 1 March 2011. Each report was scrutinised manually to discover the cause of the fire. RESULTS Thirteen surgical fires were reported during the study period. Of these, 11 were found to be directly related to spirit-based surgical skin preparation or preparation soaked swabs and drapes. CONCLUSIONS Despite manufacturer's instructions and warnings, surgical fires continue to occur. Guidance published in the UK and US states that spirit-based skin preparation solutions should continue to be used but sets out some precautions. It may be that fire risk should be included in pre-surgical World Health Organization checklists or in the surgical training curriculum. Surgical staff should be aware of the risk that spirit-based skin preparation fluids pose and should take action to minimise the chance of fire occurring. PMID:22391366

Alcohol skin preparation causes surgical fires.

PubMed

Rocos, B; Donaldson, L J

2012-03-01

Surgical fires are a rare but serious preventable safety risk in modern hospitals. Data from the US show that up to 650 surgical fires occur each year, with up to 5% causing death or serious harm. This study used the National Reporting and Learning Service (NRLS) database at the National Patient Safety Agency to explore whether spirit-based surgical skin preparation fluid contributes to the cause of surgical fires. The NRLS database was interrogated for all incidents of surgical fires reported between 1 March 2004 and 1 March 2011. Each report was scrutinised manually to discover the cause of the fire. Thirteen surgical fires were reported during the study period. Of these, 11 were found to be directly related to spirit-based surgical skin preparation or preparation soaked swabs and drapes. Despite manufacturer's instructions and warnings, surgical fires continue to occur. Guidance published in the UK and US states that spirit-based skin preparation solutions should continue to be used but sets out some precautions. It may be that fire risk should be included in pre-surgical World Health Organization checklists or in the surgical training curriculum. Surgical staff should be aware of the risk that spirit-based skin preparation fluids pose and should take action to minimise the chance of fire occurring.

Cost-benefit analysis of passive fire protections in road LPG transportation.

PubMed

Paltrinieri, Nicola; Bonvicini, Sarah; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

2012-02-01

The cost-benefit evaluation of passive fire protection adoption in the road transport of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was investigated. In a previous study, mathematical simulations of real scale fire scenarios proved the effectiveness of passive fire protections in preventing the "fired" boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), thus providing a significant risk reduction. In the present study the economical aspects of the adoption of fire protections are analyzed and an approach to cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is proposed. The CBA model is based on the comparison of the risk reduction due to fire protections (expressed in monetary terms by the value of a statistical life) and the cost of the application of fire protections to a fleet of tankers. Different types of fire protections were considered, as well as the possibility to apply protections to the entire fleet or only to a part of it. The application of the proposed model to a real-life case study is presented and discussed. Results demonstrate that the adoption of passive fire protections on road tankers, though not compulsory in Europe, can be economically feasible, thus representing a concrete measure to achieve control of the "major hazard accidents" cited by the European legislation. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains

PubMed Central

Calder, W. John; Parker, Dusty; Stopka, Cody J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Shuman, Bryan N.

2015-01-01

Many of the largest wildfires in US history burned in recent decades, and climate change explains much of the increase in area burned. The frequency of extreme wildfire weather will increase with continued warming, but many uncertainties still exist about future fire regimes, including how the risk of large fires will persist as vegetation changes. Past fire-climate relationships provide an opportunity to constrain the related uncertainties, and reveal widespread burning across large regions of western North America during past warm intervals. Whether such episodes also burned large portions of individual landscapes has been difficult to determine, however, because uncertainties with the ages of past fires and limited spatial resolution often prohibit specific estimates of past area burned. Accounting for these challenges in a subalpine landscape in Colorado, we estimated century-scale fire synchroneity across 12 lake-sediment charcoal records spanning the past 2,000 y. The percentage of sites burned only deviated from the historic range of variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) between 1,200 and 850 y B.P., when temperatures were similar to recent decades. Between 1,130 and 1,030 y B.P., 83% (median estimate) of our sites burned when temperatures increased ∼0.5 °C relative to the preceding centuries. Lake-based fire rotation during the MCA decreased to an estimated 120 y, representing a 260% higher rate of burning than during the period of dendroecological sampling (360 to −60 y B.P.). Increased burning, however, did not persist throughout the MCA. Burning declined abruptly before temperatures cooled, indicating possible fuel limitations to continued burning. PMID:26438834

78 FR 45573 - Compensatory and Alternative Regulatory Measures for Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-29

... Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN-FIRE) AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Notice of... Nuclear Power Plant Fire Protection (CARMEN-FIRE), Draft Report for Comment.'' DATES: Comments on this... CONTACT: Felix Gonzalez, Fire Research Branch, Division of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory...

Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

2017-07-01

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

The Pictorial Fire Stroop: A Measure of Processing Bias for Fire-Related Stimuli

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallagher-Duffy, Joanne; MacKay, Sherri; Duffy, Jim; Sullivan-Thomas, Meara; Peterson-Badali, Michele

2009-01-01

Fire interest is a risk factor for firesetting. This study tested whether a fire-specific emotional Stroop task can effectively measure an information-processing bias for fire-related stimuli. Clinic-referred and nonreferred adolescents (aged 13-16 years) completed a pictorial "Fire Stroop," as well as a self-report fire interest questionnaire and…

Using NASA Satellite Observations to Map Wildfire Risk in the United States for Allocation of Fire Management Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahmand, A.; Reager, J. T., II; Behrangi, A.; Stavros, E. N.; Randerson, J. T.

2017-12-01

Fires are a key disturbance globally acting as a catalyst for terrestrial ecosystem change and contributing significantly to both carbon emissions and changes in surface albedo. The socioeconomic impacts of wildfire activities are also significant with wildfire activity results in billions of dollars of losses every year. Fire size, area burned and frequency are increasing, thus the likelihood of fire danger, defined by United States National Interagency Fire Center (NFIC) as the demand of fire management resources as a function of how flammable fuels (a function of ignitability, consumability and availability) are from normal, is an important step toward reducing costs associated with wildfires. Numerous studies have aimed to predict the likelihood of fire danger, but few studies use remote sensing data to map fire danger at scales commensurate with regional management decisions (e.g., deployment of resources nationally throughout fire season with seasonal and monthly prediction). Here, we use NASA Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) assimilated surface soil moisture, NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) vapor pressure deficit, NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index products and landcover products, along with US Forest Service historical fire activity data to generate probabilistic monthly fire potential maps in the United States. These maps can be useful in not only government operational allocation of fire management resources, but also improving understanding of the Earth System and how it is changing in order to refine predictions of fire extremes.

Tree mortality from fire and bark beetles following early and late season prescribed fires in a Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwilk, Dylan W.; Knapp, Eric E.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Keeley, Jon E.; Caprio, Anthony C.

2006-01-01

Over the last century, fire exclusion in the forests of the Sierra Nevada has allowed surface fuels to accumulate and has led to increased tree density. Stand composition has also been altered as shade tolerant tree species crowd out shade intolerant species. To restore forest structure and reduce the risk of large, intense fires, managers have increasingly used prescription burning. Most fires prior to EuroAmerican settlement occurred during the late summer and early fall and most prescribed burning has taken place during the latter part of this period. Poor air quality and lack of suitable burn windows during the fall, however, have resulted in a need to conduct more prescription burning earlier in the season. Previous reports have suggested that burning during the time when trees are actively growing may increase mortality rates due to fine root damage and/or bark beetle activity. This study examines the effects of fire on tree mortality and bark beetle attacks under prescription burning during early and late season. Replicated early season burn, late season burn and unburned control plots were established in an old-growth mixed conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada that had not experienced a fire in over 120 years. Although prescribed burns resulted in significant mortality of particularly the smallest tree size classes, no difference between early and late season burns was detected. Direct mortality due to fire was associated with fire intensity. Secondary mortality due to bark beetles was not significantly correlated with fire intensity. The probability of bark beetle attack on pines did not differ between early and late season burns, while the probability of bark beetle attack on firs was greater following early season burns. Overall tree mortality appeared to be primarily the result of fire intensity rather than tree phenology at the time of the burns. Early season burns are generally conducted under higher fuel moisture conditions, leading to less fuel consumption and potentially less injury to trees. This reduction in fire severity may compensate for relatively modest increases in bark beetle attack probabilities on some tree species, ultimately resulting in a forest structure that differs little between early and late season prescribed burning treatments.

A vicious circle of fire, deforestation and climate change: an integrative study for the Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Rammig, A.; Gumpenberger, M.; Vohland, K.; Poulter, B.; Cramer, W.

2009-04-01

The Amazon rainforest is threatened by deforestation due to wood extraction and agricultural production leading to increasing forest fragmentation and forest degradation. These changes in land surface characteristics and water fluxes are expected to further reduce convective precipitation. Under future climate change the stability of the Amazon rainforest is likely to decrease thus leading to forest dieback (savannization) or forest degradation (secondarization). This puts the Amazon rainforest at risk to reduce the generation of precipitation, to act as a carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot. Fires increased in the past during drought years and in open vegetation thereby further accelerating forest degradation. Deforestation as a result of socioeconomic development in the Amazon basin is projected to further increase in the 21st century and brings climate-induced changes forward. Combined effects of deforestation vs. climate change on the stability of the Amazon rainforest and the role of fire in this system need to be quantified in an integrated study. We present simulation results from future climate (AR4) and deforestation (SimAmazon) experiments using the LPJmL-SPITFIRE vegetation model. Land use change is the main driving factor of forest degradation before 2050, whereas extreme climate change scenarios lead to forest degradation by the end of 2100. Forest fires increase with increasing drought conditions during the 21st century. The resulting effects on vegetation secondarization and savannization and their feedbacks on fire spread and emissions will be presented. The effect of wildfires and intentional burning on forest degradation under future climate and socioeconomic change will be discussed, and recommendations for an integrated land use and fire management are given.

Risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns during extreme cold weather.

PubMed

Ayoub, Aimina; Kosatsky, Tom; Smargiassi, Audrey; Bilodeau-Bertrand, Marianne; Auger, Nathalie

2017-10-01

Environmental factors are important predictors of fires, but no study has examined the association between outdoor temperature and fire-related burn injuries. We sought to investigate the relationship between extremely cold outdoor temperatures and the risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. We carried out a time-stratified case-crossover study of 2470 patients hospitalized for fire-related burn injuries during cold months between 1989 and 2014 in Quebec, Canada. The main exposure was the minimum outdoor temperature on the day of and the day before the burn. We computed odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to evaluate the relationship between minimum temperature and fire-related burns, and assessed how associations varied across sex and age. Exposure to extreme cold temperature was associated with a significantly higher risk of hospitalization for fire-related burns. Compared with 0°C, exposure to a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.22-1.87) for hospitalization for fire-related burns. The associations were somewhat stronger for women, youth, and the elderly. Compared with 0°C, a minimum temperature of -30°C was associated with an OR for fire-related burn hospitalization of 1.65 for women (95% CI 1.13-2.40), 1.60 for age < 25 years (95% CI 1.02-2.52), and 1.73 for age ≥ 65 years (95% CI 1.08-2.77). Extremely cold outdoor temperature is a risk factor for fire-related burns. Measures to prevent fires should be implemented prior to the winter season, and enhanced during extreme cold. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

First Approximations of Prescribed Fire Risks Relative to Other Management Techniques Used on Private Lands.

PubMed

Twidwell, Dirac; Wonkka, Carissa L; Sindelar, Michael T; Weir, John R

2015-01-01

Fire is widely recognized as a critical ecological and evolutionary driver that needs to be at the forefront of land management actions if conservation targets are to be met. However, the prevailing view is that prescribed fire is riskier than other land management techniques. Perceived risks associated with the application of fire limits its use and reduces agency support for prescribed burning in the private sector. As a result, considerably less cost-share support is given for prescribed fire compared to mechanical techniques. This study tests the general perception that fire is a riskier technique relative to other land management options. Due to the lack of data available to directly test this notion, we use a combination of approaches including 1) a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for techniques employed in land management, 2) a comparison of fatalities resulting from wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3) an exploration of causal factors responsible for wildland fire-related fatalities. This approach establishes a first approximation of the relative risk of fatality to private citizens using prescribed fire compared to other management techniques that are readily used in ecosystem management. Our data do not support using risks of landowner fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as mechanical (machine-related) equipment, over prescribed fire. Vehicles and heavy machinery are consistently leading reasons for fatalities within occupations selected as proxies for management techniques employed by ranchers and agricultural producers, and also constitute a large proportion of fatalities among firefighters. Our study provides the foundation for agencies to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for prescribed burning on private lands.

First Approximations of Prescribed Fire Risks Relative to Other Management Techniques Used on Private Lands

PubMed Central

Twidwell, Dirac; Wonkka, Carissa L.; Sindelar, Michael T.; Weir, John R.

2015-01-01

Fire is widely recognized as a critical ecological and evolutionary driver that needs to be at the forefront of land management actions if conservation targets are to be met. However, the prevailing view is that prescribed fire is riskier than other land management techniques. Perceived risks associated with the application of fire limits its use and reduces agency support for prescribed burning in the private sector. As a result, considerably less cost-share support is given for prescribed fire compared to mechanical techniques. This study tests the general perception that fire is a riskier technique relative to other land management options. Due to the lack of data available to directly test this notion, we use a combination of approaches including 1) a comparison of fatalities resulting from different occupations that are proxies for techniques employed in land management, 2) a comparison of fatalities resulting from wildland fire versus prescribed fire, and 3) an exploration of causal factors responsible for wildland fire-related fatalities. This approach establishes a first approximation of the relative risk of fatality to private citizens using prescribed fire compared to other management techniques that are readily used in ecosystem management. Our data do not support using risks of landowner fatalities as justification for the use of alternative land management techniques, such as mechanical (machine-related) equipment, over prescribed fire. Vehicles and heavy machinery are consistently leading reasons for fatalities within occupations selected as proxies for management techniques employed by ranchers and agricultural producers, and also constitute a large proportion of fatalities among firefighters. Our study provides the foundation for agencies to establish data-driven decisions regarding the degree of support they provide for prescribed burning on private lands. PMID:26465329

Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance

PubMed Central

Ager, Alan A.; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Barros, Ana M. G.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

2017-01-01

We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments. PMID:28257416

Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Evers, Cody R; Day, Michelle A; Preisler, Haiganoush K; Barros, Ana M G; Nielsen-Pincus, Max

2017-01-01

We characterized wildfire transmission and exposure within a matrix of large land tenures (federal, state, and private) surrounding 56 communities within a 3.3 million ha fire prone region of central Oregon US. Wildfire simulation and network analysis were used to quantify the exchange of fire among land tenures and communities and analyze the relative contributions of human versus natural ignitions to wildfire exposure. Among the land tenures examined, the area burned by incoming fires averaged 57% of the total burned area. Community exposure from incoming fires ignited on surrounding land tenures accounted for 67% of the total area burned. The number of land tenures contributing wildfire to individual communities and surrounding wildland urban interface (WUI) varied from 3 to 20. Community firesheds, i.e. the area where ignitions can spawn fires that can burn into the WUI, covered 40% of the landscape, and were 5.5 times larger than the combined area of the community core and WUI. For the major land tenures within the study area, the amount of incoming versus outgoing fire was relatively constant, with some exceptions. The study provides a multi-scale characterization of wildfire networks within a large, mixed tenure and fire prone landscape, and illustrates the connectivity of risk between communities and the surrounding wildlands. We use the findings to discuss how scale mismatches in local wildfire governance result from disconnected planning systems and disparate fire management objectives among the large landowners (federal, state, private) and local communities. Local and regional risk planning processes can adopt our concepts and methods to better define and map the scale of wildfire risk from large fire events and incorporate wildfire network and connectivity concepts into risk assessments.

Understanding and Combating the Fire-Enhancing Impact of Non-Native Annuals in Desert Scrub through the Tools of Population and Landscape Ecology

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

annuals are able to spread into the areas between the shrubs by employing population strategies that sharply contrast with those of native species. This...greatly increases the fuel load in the matrix, which has historically produced a natural firebreak between shrubs . Our particular aims were to: (1... shrubs with respect to key interactions and the development of spatial pattern that may influence fire risk. It also provides insights into the

The dynamics of fire regimes in tropical peatlands in Central Kalimantan, Borneo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoscilo, Agata; Page, Susan; Tansey, Kevin

2010-05-01

As a carbon-rich ecosystem, tropical peatland contributes significantly to terrestrial carbon storage and stability of the global carbon cycle. Vast areas of tropical peatland in SE Asia are degraded by the increasingly intensive scale of human activities, illustrated by high rates of deforestation, poor land-use management, selective illegal logging, and frequently repeated fires. Analysis of time-series satellite images performed in this study confirmed that fire regimes have dramatically changed in tropical peatlands over the last three decades (1973-2005). The study was conducted in the southern part of Central Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo). We found that there was an evident increase in fire frequency and a decline in the fire return interval after implementation of the Mega Rice Project (1997-2005). Up until 1997, fires had affected a relatively small area, in total 23% of the study area, and were largely related to land clearance. This situation changed significantly during the last decade (1997-2005), when the widespread, intensive fires of 1997 affected a much larger area. Five years later, in 2002, extensive fires returned, affecting again 22% of the study area. Then, in 2004 and 2005, a further large area of peatland was on fire. Fire frequency analysis showed that during the period 1997-2005, around 45% of the study area was subject to multiple fires, with 37% burnt twice and 8% burnt three or more times. Near-annual occurrence of fire events reduces the rate and nature of vegetation regrowth. Hence, we observed a shift in the fire fuel type and amount over the period of investigation. After 1997, the fire fuel shifted from mainly peat swamp forest biomass towards non-woody biomass, dominated by regenerating vegetation, mainly ferns and a few trees. This secondary vegetation has been shown to be fire prone, although fire propagation is slower than in forest and restricted by both low fuel quality and load. Furthermore, we investigated the interaction between human impacts and presence and extent of fires. We found that the majority of fire events were directly or indirectly associated with human activities (i.e. selective logging, land clearance, intensive drainage and transmigration re-settlement). The intensive drainage infrastructure associated with the Mega Rice Project initiative greatly impaired the peatland hydrological system, increasing the risk of fire. In addition, the network of canals allowed easy access for people whose activities provided ignition sources. Hence, multiple fires were located within close proximity to canals and declined with distance away from canals. These results emphasise the vulnerability of degraded tropical peatlands to fire and confirm that widespread and intensive fires have become an integral part of tropical peatland ecosystem and are now associated with most dry seasons.

BRFS: TOXICOLOGY AND RISK

EPA Science Inventory

Brominated flame retardants are a large class of diverse chemicals which are being used in increasing amounts world wide to protect against fires. The major classes include the polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), the brominated bisphenols (e.g., tetrabromobisphenol A, TBBPA)...

Reducing Community Vulnerability to Wildland Fires in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.

2010-12-01

In the US fires are not treated like other hazards such as earthquakes but rather as preventable through landscape fuel treatments and aggressive fire suppression. In southern California extreme fire weather has made it impossible to control all fires and thus loss of homes and lives is a constant threat to communities. There is growing evidence that indicate we are not likely to ever eliminate fires on these landscapes. Thus, it is time to reframe the fire problem and think of fires like we do with other natural hazards such as earthquakes. We do not attempt to stop earthquakes, rather the primary emphasis is on altering human infrastructure in ways that minimize community vulnerability. In other words we need to change our approach from risk elimination to risk management. This approach means we accept that we cannot eliminate fires but rather learn to live with fire by communities becoming more fire adapted. We potentially can make great strides in reducing community vulnerability by finding those factors with high impacts and are sensitive to changes in management. Presently, decision makers have relatively little guidance about which of these is likely to have the greatest impact. Future reductions in fire risk to communities requires we address both wildland and urban elements that contribute to destructive losses. Damage risk or D is determined by: D = f (I, S, E, G, H) where I = the probability of a fire starting in the landscape S = the probability of the fire reaching a size sufficient to reach the urban environment E = probability of it encroaching into the urban environment G = probability of fire propagating within the built environment H = probability of a fire, once within the built environment, resulting in the destruction of a building. In southern California, reducing I through more strategic fire prevention has potential for reducing fire risk. There are many ignition sources that could be reduced, such as replacing power line ignitions with underground lines, strategically employing arson patrols during Santa Ana wind events, enforcing regulations on power equipment use in wildland areas, k-rail barriers along roads to reduce fire spread into wildland areas etc. S, or the probability of fire reaching urban environments has historically been the primary focus of state and federal fire management activities. There is a need for greater focus on understanding the most strategic application of wildland fuel treatments. E, the probability of fire encroaching into the urban environment, has largely been addressed in the past by attention to wildland-urban interface (WUI) fuel treatments. The one factor that has perhaps the greatest potential for impacting E are patterns of urban growth, both in strategic placement and spatial patterning within communities, and this is an area where alternative future growth scenarios could have huge impacts on fire outcomes. G, the chance of fire propagating within the urban environment is a function of urban fuels, which include both home construction and landscaping. This area has the potential for effecting large changes in fire losses dependent upon future regulations on plantings in the urban environment.

From leaves to landscape: A multiscale approach to assess fire hazard in wildland-urban interface areas.

PubMed

Ghermandi, Luciana; Beletzky, Natacha A; de Torres Curth, Mónica I; Oddi, Facundo J

2016-12-01

The overlapping zone between urbanization and wildland vegetation, known as the wildland urban interface (WUI), is often at high risk of wildfire. Human activities increase the likelihood of wildfires, which can have disastrous consequences for property and land use, and can pose a serious threat to lives. Fire hazard assessments depend strongly on the spatial scale of analysis. We assessed the fire hazard in a WUI area of a Patagonian city by working at three scales: landscape, community and species. Fire is a complex phenomenon, so we used a large number of variables that correlate a priori with the fire hazard. Consequently, we analyzed environmental variables together with fuel load and leaf flammability variables and integrated all the information in a fire hazard map with four fire hazard categories. The Nothofagus dombeyi forest had the highest fire hazard while grasslands had the lowest. Our work highlights the vulnerability of the wildland-urban interface to fire in this region and our suggested methodology could be applied in other wildland-urban interface areas. Particularly in high hazard areas, our work could help in spatial delimitation policies, urban planning and development of plans for the protection of human lives and assets. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying GIS to develop a model for forest fire risk: A case study in Espírito Santo, Brazil.

PubMed

Eugenio, Fernando Coelho; dos Santos, Alexandre Rosa; Fiedler, Nilton Cesar; Ribeiro, Guido Assunção; da Silva, Aderbal Gomes; dos Santos, Áureo Banhos; Paneto, Greiciane Gaburro; Schettino, Vitor Roberto

2016-05-15

A forest fire risk map is a basic element for planning and protecting forested areas. The main goal of this study was to develop a statistical model for preparing a forest fire risk map using GIS. Such model is based on assigning weights to nine variables divided into two classes: physical factors of the site (terrain slope, land-use/occupation, proximity to roads, terrain orientation, and altitude) and climatic factors (precipitation, temperature, water deficit, and evapotranspiration). In regions where the climate is different from the conditions of this study, the model will require an adjustment of the variables weights according to the local climate. The study area, Espírito Santo State, exhibited approximately 3.81% low risk, 21.18% moderate risk, 30.10% high risk, 41.50% very high risk, and 3.40% extreme risk of forest fire. The areas classified as high risk, very high and extreme, contemplated a total of 78.92% of heat spots. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of recent changes in smoke alarm legislation on residential fire injuries and smoke alarm ownership in New South Wales, Australia.

PubMed

Harvey, Lara A; Poulos, Roslyn G; Sherker, Shauna

2013-01-01

In 2006, New South Wales (NSW) state legislation changed from requiring smoke alarms in new houses only to all houses. We evaluated the impact of this legislative change on residential fire injury and smoke alarm ownership characteristics. Residential fire injuries for 2002 to 2010 were identified from hospitalization data for all hospitals in NSW. Data relating to smoke alarm ownership and demographic factors were obtained from the NSW Population Health Survey. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to analyze trends over time. Prior to the introduction of universal legislation, hospitalization rates were increasing slightly; however, following the introduction of legislation, hospitalization rates decreased by an estimated 36.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.7-55.8) annually. Smoke alarm ownership increased from 73.3% (95% CI, 72.5-74.2) prelegislation to 93.6% (95% CI, 93.1-94.2) 18 months postlegislation. Thirty percent of households reported testing their alarms regularly. Speaking a language other than English (relative risks [RRs], 1.82; 95% CI, 1.44-2.99), allowing smoking in the home (RR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.31-2.27), and being part of the most disadvantaged socioeconomic group (RR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.14-1.91) remain major risk factors for nonownership. Broadening the scope of state legislation has had a positive impact on residential fire-related hospitalizations and smoke alarm ownership. However, it is of concern that the legislation has been the least effective in increasing smoke alarm ownership among non-English-speaking households, in households where smoking is allowed, in low socioeconomic households, and that a high proportion of householders do not test their smoke alarms regularly. Targeted campaigns are needed to reach these high-risk groups and to ensure that smoke alarms are functional.

Third U.S. Geological Survey Wildland Fire-Science Workshop : Denver, Colorado, November 12-15, 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Livingston, Russell K.

2004-01-01

Executive Summary -- The historically significant wildland fire events that occurred in the United States during 2000 and 2002, together with the associated recognition of the need for a different national policy of forest management, has led to an increased awareness of the need for cooperative effort among all Federal agencies in planning for and managing the risks and consequences of wildland fire. The expertise and capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are significant resources in this regard, and the agency is becoming increasingly involved in fire-science activities in support of the various land-management agencies that are dealing directly with this issue. The First USGS Wildland Fire Workshop was held in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, in 1997 and helped to establish the direction of USGS in sharing its expertise with the fire-management agencies. The Second USGS Wildland Fire Workshop was held in Los Alamos, New Mexico, in 2000 and brought together all the agencies involved in the management of wildland fires in order to determine their needs, to demonstrate USGS capabilities to meet those needs, and to establish methods for the USGS to distribute data and tools useful in fire management. It enhanced the relationships developed during the 1997 workshop and helped to define USGS' role in the fire-management community. The Third USGS Wildland Fire-Science Workshop, held in Denver, Colorado, November 12?15, 2002, was an opportunity for exchange of information on recent progress in the area of fire science and to determine the gaps in fire-science research that could be addressed by the USGS. In addition to more than 90 USGS scientists engaged in fire-related research and managers of organizational units involved in some aspect of wildland fire activities, the workshop was attended by about 30 representatives of 11 other Federal agencies. There also were a number of attendees affiliated with several universities, private companies, and State and local agencies. The 4-day meeting consisted of a pre-workshop field trip to the Hayman Fire area, several keynote presentations, five panel discussions, presentation and 'breakout' discussion of four 'white paper' topics, and a poster session with more than 30 presentations.

A new website with real-time dissemination of information on fire activity and meteorological fire danger in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DaCamara, Carlos; Trigo, Ricardo; Nunes, Sílvia; Pinto, Miguel; Oliveira, Tiago; Almeida, Rui

2017-04-01

In Portugal, like in Mediterranean Europe, fire activity is a natural phenomenon linking climate, humans and vegetation and is therefore conditioned by natural and anthropogenic factors. Natural factors include topography, vegetation cover and prevailing weather conditions whereas anthropogenic factors encompass land management practices and fire prevention policies. Land management practices, in particular the inadequate use of fire, is a crucial anthropogenic factor that accounts for about 90% of fire ignitions. Fire prevention policies require adequate and timely information about wildfire potential assessment, which is usually based on fire danger rating systems that provide indices to be used on an operational and tactical basis in decision support systems. We present a new website designed to provide the user community with relevant real-time information on fire activity and meteorological fire danger that will allow adopting the adequate measures to mitigate fire damage. The fire danger product consists of forecasts of fire danger over Portugal based on a statistical procedure that combines information about fire history derived from the Fire Radiative Power product disseminated by the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF) with daily meteorological forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The aim of the website is fourfold; 1) to concentrate all information available (databases and maps) relevant to fire management in a unique platform so that access by end users becomes easier, faster and friendlier; 2) to supervise the access of users to the different products available; 3) to control and assist the access to the platform and obtain feedbacks from users for further improvements; 4) to outreach the operational community and foster the use of better information that increase efficiency in risk management. The website is sponsored by The Navigator Company, a leading force in the global pulp and paper market. Since the operational start of the website, the number of registered users has been steadily increasing up to a total of 300 users from a wide community that encompasses forest managers, firemen and civil protection officers, personnel from municipalities, academic researchers and private owners.

Are High-Severity Fires Burning at Much Higher Rates Recently than Historically in Dry-Forest Landscapes of the Western USA?

PubMed Central

Baker, William L.

2015-01-01

Dry forests at low elevations in temperate-zone mountains are commonly hypothesized to be at risk of exceptional rates of severe fire from climatic change and land-use effects. Their setting is fire-prone, they have been altered by land-uses, and fire severity may be increasing. However, where fires were excluded, increased fire could also be hypothesized as restorative of historical fire. These competing hypotheses are not well tested, as reference data prior to widespread land-use expansion were insufficient. Moreover, fire-climate projections were lacking for these forests. Here, I used new reference data and records of high-severity fire from 1984–2012 across all dry forests (25.5 million ha) of the western USA to test these hypotheses. I also approximated projected effects of climatic change on high-severity fire in dry forests by applying existing projections. This analysis showed the rate of recent high-severity fire in dry forests is within the range of historical rates, or is too low, overall across dry forests and individually in 42 of 43 analysis regions. Significant upward trends were lacking overall from 1984–2012 for area burned and fraction burned at high severity. Upward trends in area burned at high severity were found in only 4 of 43 analysis regions. Projections for A.D. 2046–2065 showed high-severity fire would generally be still operating at, or have been restored to historical rates, although high projections suggest high-severity fire rotations that are too short could ensue in 6 of 43 regions. Programs to generally reduce fire severity in dry forests are not supported and have significant adverse ecological impacts, including reducing habitat for native species dependent on early-successional burned patches and decreasing landscape heterogeneity that confers resilience to climatic change. Some adverse ecological effects of high-severity fires are concerns. Managers and communities can improve our ability to live with high-severity fire in dry forests. PMID:26351850

High resolution fire risk mapping in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

2014-05-01

The high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity makes Italy vulnerable to forest fires both in the summer and in winter. In particular, northern regions are predominantly characterized by a winter fire regime, mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north, while southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. The agricultural and rural areas, in the last century, have been gradually abandoned, especially in areas with complex topography. Many of these areas were subject to reforestation, leading to the spread of pioneer species mainly represented by Mediterranean conifer, which are highly vulnerable to fire. Because of the frequent spread of fire, these areas are limited to the early successional stages, consisting mainly of shrub vegetation; its survival in the competition with the climax species being ensured by the spread of fire itself. Due to the frequency of fire ignition — almost entirely man caused — the time between fires on the same area is at least an order of magnitude less than the time that would allow the establishment of forest climax species far less vulnerable to fire. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions, which is expected to make a significant contribution to the problem in a few years' time. The goal of such detailed planning is to dramatically reduce the costs associated with water bombers fleet management and fire extinguishing actions, leaving more resources to improve safety in areas at risk. With the availability of fire perimeters mapped over a period spanning from 5 to 10 years, depending by the region, a procedure was defined in order to assess areas at risk with high spatial resolution (900 m2) based on objective criteria by observing past fire events. The availability of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behaviour. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November- April and May- October). In addition, the total precipitation obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 460 raingauges and the average air temperature obtained downscaling 30 years ERA-INTERIM data series were considered. About 48000 fire perimeters which burnt about 5500 km2 were considered in the analysis. The analysis has been carried out at 30 m spatial resolution. Some important considerations relating to climate and the territorial features that characterize the fire regime at national level contribute to better understand the forest fire phenomena. These results allow to define new strategies for forest fire prevention and management extensible to other geographical areas.

[Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

PubMed

Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

2015-07-01

The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

PubMed

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Soil responses to the fire and fire surrogate study in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Emily E.Y. Moghaddas; Scott L. Stephens

2007-01-01

The Fire and Fire Surrogate Study utilizes forest thinning and prescribed burning in attempt to create forest stand structures that reduce the risk of catastrophic wildfire. Replicated treatments consisting of mechanical tree harvest (commercial harvest plus mastication of submerchantable material), mechanical harvest followed by prescribed fire, prescribed fire alone...

The Fire and Fire Surrogates Study: Providing guidelines for fire in future forest watershed management decisions

Treesearch

Carleton B. Edminster; C. Phillip Weatherspoon; Daniel G. Neary

2000-01-01

As part of the 1998 Joint USDA/USDI Fire Science Program, the Fire and Fire Surrogates Study was proposed to establish and evaluate cross-comparisons of fuels treatment practices and techniques to reduce wildfire risk. This study evaluates prescribed fire, thinning, and various mechanical treatment methods for treating, removing, or using woody biomass. Site-specific...

Factors controlling seedling germination after fire in Mediterranean gorse shrublands. Implications for fire prescription.

PubMed

De Luis, M; Raventós, J; González-Hidalgo, J C

2005-07-01

In Western Mediterranean areas, fires are frequent in forests established on old croplands where woody resprouting species are scarce and post-fire regeneration is limited to obligate-seeder species, such as Mediterranean gorse (Ulex parviflorus), that accumulate a great deal of fine dry fuel, increasing the risk of other severe fires. Under these conditions, fuel control techniques are required in order to prevent fires of high intensity and severity and the subsequent economic and ecological damage. Prescribed fires present an alternative to fuel control, and recent studies demonstrate that, under optimum climatic conditions, fire-line intensity values fall within the limits of those recommended for fire prescription. However, a better understanding of the consequences of fire on the regeneration of vegetation is needed in order to evaluate the suitability of prescribed fires as a technique for fuel reduction in Mediterranean gorse ecosystems. This paper analyses the factors controlling seedling germination after fire to make an evaluation from an ecological perspective of whether fire prescription is a suitable technique for fuel control in mature Mediterranean gorse shrublands. The results show that small differences in the composition of vegetation play a decisive role in fire behaviour, and have a decisive influence on the system's capacity for regeneration. Fire severity is low in mixed Mediterranean gorse communities with a low continuity of dead fine fuel (including Cistus sp., Rosmarinus sp., etc.) and fire creates a wide range of microhabitats where seedling emergence is high. In contrast, where U. parviflorus is more dominant, fire severity is higher and the regeneration of vegetation could be hindered. Our conclusions suggest that detailed studies of the composition of plant communities are required in order to decide whether prescribed burning should be applied.

Post-fire vegetation succession in Mediterranean gorse shrublands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Luis, Martin; Raventós, José; González-Hidalgo, José Carlos

2006-07-01

In Western Mediterranean areas, forest fires are frequent in forests established on old croplands where post-fire regeneration is limited to obligate-seeder species. This has resulted in the spread of Mediterranean gorse ( Ulex parviflorus) increasing the risk and severity of fires. The aim of this paper is to test the autosuccessional hypothesis on a Mediterranean gorse shrubland dominated by seeders species. Particular objectives are: a) to analyze the effect of fire on seedling emergence, survival and growth on the main species involved on plant regeneration process. b) to identify changes in the relative abundance of species as consequence of fire by using a before-after experiment. Then, after experimental fires, seedling emergence, survival and growth rates were analyzed for the main species present in the vegetation regeneration process. Our results show that Mediterranean gorse communities are dominated by Fabaceae species (64% of individuals, mainly of Ulex parviflorus). However, our study demonstrates that vegetation regeneration after fire does not display an autosuccessional pattern and is produced a change on dominance from Fabaceae (mainly U. parviflorus) to Cistaceae (mainly C. albidus) species. Cistaceae seedlings (mainly Cistus albidus and Helianthemum marifolium) were the most abundant post-fire (63% of total germination) while species of Fabaceae (including U. parviflorus and Ononis fruticosa) represented 25%, and Lamiaceae (restricted to Rosmarinus officinalis) comprised only 3% of total emergences. Seedling survival did not differ significantly from one species to another (25-30% of initial individuals over 3 years) but seedling growth rates were also higher for Cistaceae than for Fabaceae individuals. Then, after fire, in terms of biomass, Fabaceae presence decreased from 78.7% to 13.1% while Cistaceae increase from 8% to 83.4%. Given that fire frequency, intensity or severity is partially controlled by the composition and structure of the plant community population changes in the main species, could affect the future fire regime and in turn, affect the hydrological, ecological and economic role of a large stretch of forest and woodland areas in western Mediterranean ecosystems.

Managing wildland fire risk in Florida

Treesearch

J. Brenner; D. Carlton; S. McLellan; A. Dozier; T. Spencer; D. Buckley; A. Ralowicz

2010-01-01

Florida’s Wildland Fire Risk Assessment (FRA), which was completed in 2002, is a statewide effort to develop a comprehensive suite of standardized spatial data layers developed to support implementation of a statewide fuels management strategy. By maintaining focus on fire and fuel dynamics for use with scientifically credible local to statewide applications, the FRA...

Not Getting Burned: The Importance of Fire

Treesearch

Gregory S. Amacher; Arun S. Malik; Robert G. Haight

2005-01-01

We extend existing stand-level models of forest landowner behavior in the presence of fire risk to include the level and timing of fuel management activities. These activities reduce losses if a stand ignites. Based on simulations, we find the standard result that fire risk reduces the optimal rotation age does not hold when landowners use fuel management. Instead,...

Wildfire communication and climate risk mitigation

Treesearch

Robyn S. Wilson; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric Toman

2017-01-01

Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire...

Predicting watershed sediment yields after wildland fire with the InVEST sediment retention model at large geographic extent in the western USA: accuracy and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankey, J. B.; Kreitler, J.; McVay, J.; Hawbaker, T. J.; Vaillant, N.; Lowe, S. E.

2014-12-01

Wildland fire is a primary threat to watersheds that can impact water supply through increased sedimentation, water quality decline, and change the timing and amount of runoff leading to increased risk from flood and sediment natural hazards. It is of great societal importance in the western USA and throughout the world to improve understanding of how changing fire frequency, extent, and location, in conjunction with fuel treatments will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities. In this work we assess the utility of the InVEST Sediment Retention Model to accurately characterize vulnerability of burned watersheds to erosion and sedimentation. The InVEST tools are GIS-based implementations of common process models, engineered for high-end computing to allow the faster simulation of larger landscapes and incorporation into decision-making. The InVEST Sediment Retention Model is based on common soil erosion models (e.g., RUSLE -Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) and determines which areas of the landscape contribute the greatest sediment loads to a hydrological network and conversely evaluate the ecosystem service of sediment retention on a watershed basis. We evaluate the accuracy and uncertainties for InVEST predictions of increased sedimentation after fire, using measured post-fire sedimentation rates available for many watersheds in different rainfall regimes throughout the western USA from an existing, large USGS database of post-fire sediment yield [synthesized in Moody J, Martin D (2009) Synthesis of sediment yields after wildland fire in different rainfall regimes in the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 96-115]. The ultimate goal of this work is to calibrate and implement the model to accurately predict variability in post-fire sediment yield as a function of future landscape heterogeneity predicted by wildfire simulations, and future landscape fuel treatment scenarios, within watersheds.

GIS applied to location of fires detection towers in domain area of tropical forest.

PubMed

Eugenio, Fernando Coelho; Rosa Dos Santos, Alexandre; Fiedler, Nilton Cesar; Ribeiro, Guido Assunção; da Silva, Aderbal Gomes; Juvanhol, Ronie Silva; Schettino, Vitor Roberto; Marcatti, Gustavo Eduardo; Domingues, Getúlio Fonseca; Alves Dos Santos, Gleissy Mary Amaral Dino; Pezzopane, José Eduardo Macedo; Pedra, Beatriz Duguy; Banhos, Aureo; Martins, Lima Deleon

2016-08-15

In most countries, the loss of biodiversity caused by the fires is worrying. In this sense, the fires detection towers are crucial for rapid identification of fire outbreaks and can also be used in environmental inspection, biodiversity monitoring, telecommunications mechanisms, telemetry and others. Currently the methodologies for allocating fire detection towers over large areas are numerous, complex and non-standardized by government supervisory agencies. Therefore, this study proposes and evaluates different methodologies to best location of points to install fire detection towers considering the topography, risk areas, conservation units and heat spots. Were used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and unaligned stratified systematic sampling for implementing and evaluating 9 methods for allocating fire detection towers. Among the methods evaluated, the C3 method was chosen, represented by 140 fire detection towers, with coverage of: a) 67% of the study area, b) 73.97% of the areas with high risk, c) 70.41% of the areas with very high risk, d) 70.42% of the conservation units and e) 84.95% of the heat spots in 2014. The proposed methodology can be adapted to areas of other countries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Joe H. Scott; Paul Langowski; Elise Bowne; David E. Calkin

2015-01-01

Applying wildfire risk assessment models can inform investments in loss mitigation and landscape restoration, and can be used to monitor spatiotemporal trends in risk. Assessing wildfire risk entails the integration of fire modeling outputs, maps of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs), characterization of fire effects, and articulation of relative importance...

Can acceptable risk be defined in wildland firefighting?

Treesearch

David Clancy

2011-01-01

Risk is an ever-present challenge for fire agencies, fire managers, and firefighters, who must ensure that risks are managed at a level that is as low as reasonably practicable. This challenge provides a significant dilemma as there is no one prescriptive method for—or consensus on—defining "acceptable risk" in the field of firefighting....

Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4

Treesearch

Matthew Thompson; David Calkin; Joe H. Scott; Michael Hand

2017-01-01

Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and risk‐based information to support the management of active wildfire incidents. WFDSS offers a wide range...

Application of wildfire spread and behavior models to assess fire probability and severity in the Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salis, Michele; Arca, Bachisio; Bacciu, Valentina; Spano, Donatella; Duce, Pierpaolo; Santoni, Paul; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark

2010-05-01

Characterizing the spatial pattern of large fire occurrence and severity is an important feature of the fire management planning in the Mediterranean region. The spatial characterization of fire probabilities, fire behavior distributions and value changes are key components for quantitative risk assessment and for prioritizing fire suppression resources, fuel treatments and law enforcement. Because of the growing wildfire severity and frequency in recent years (e.g.: Portugal, 2003 and 2005; Italy and Greece, 2007 and 2009), there is an increasing demand for models and tools that can aid in wildfire prediction and prevention. Newer wildfire simulation systems offer promise in this regard, and allow for fine scale modeling of wildfire severity and probability. Several new applications has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (Finney, 2002), that models the fire growth searching for the minimum time for fire to travel among nodes in a 2D network. The MTT approach makes computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and fire severity maps over large areas. The MTT algorithm is imbedded in a number of research and fire modeling applications. High performance computers are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the FlamMap program (www.fire.org). In this work, we described the application of the MTT algorithm to estimate spatial patterns of burn probability and to analyze wildfire severity in three fire prone areas of the Mediterranean Basin, specifically Sardinia (Italy), Sicily (Italy) and Corsica (France) islands. We assembled fuels and topographic data for the simulations in 500 x 500 m grids for the study areas. The simulations were run using 100,000 ignitions under weather conditions that replicated severe and moderate weather conditions (97th and 70th percentile, July and August weather, 1995-2007). We used both random ignition locations and ignition probability grids (1000 x 1000 m) built from historical fire data (1995-2007). The simulation outputs were then examined to understand relationships between burn probability and specific vegetation types and ignition sources. Wildfire threats to specific values of human interest were quantified to map landscape patterns of wildfire risk. The simulation outputs also allowed us to differentiate between areas of the landscape that were progenitors of fires versus "victims" of large fires. The results provided spatially explicit data on wildfire likelihood and intensity that can be used in a variety of strategic and tactical planning forums to mitigate wildfire threats to human and other values in the Mediterranean Basin.

Landscape Scale Influences of Forest Area and Housing Density on House Loss in the 2009 Victorian Bushfires

PubMed Central

Price, Owen; Bradstock, Ross

2013-01-01

Previous investigations into the factors associated with house loss in wildfires have focused on the house construction and its immediate environment (e.g. gardens). Here, we examine how nearby native forest and other houses can influence house loss. Specifically, we used a sample of 3500 houses affected by the Victorian bushfires of February 7th 2009 to explore how the amount of forest, proportion of forest burned by crown fire and the number of nearby houses affected house loss and how far from the house this influence was exerted. These fires were the most destructive in Australian history and so represent the extreme of fire risk. Using generalized linear modeling we found that the probability of house loss increased with forest extent and the proportion burnt by crown fire and this relationship was strongest for forest measured 1 km from the houses. Houses were more likely to be destroyed if there were other houses within 50 m and if they were on a slope. A model containing these variables predicted house loss with 72% accuracy. Our findings have three important implications: i) management to change the occurrence of crown fire will be effective in reducing house loss; ii) this management may be required up to 1 km away from houses in some situations (a much larger zone than is currently used); iii) high density of houses may increase risk of loss. Given the potentially large width of this management zone and the hazard from nearby houses, it may be more sensible to concentrate on modification of buildings to reduce their vulnerability. PMID:24009753

HEALTH EFFECTS OF BROMINATED FLAME RETARDANTS (BFRS)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract Brominated flame retardant use has increased dramatically in order to provide fire safety to consumers. However, there is growing concern about widespread environmental contamination and potential health risks from some of these products. The most used products...

From open to closed canopy: A century of change in Douglas-fir forest, Orcas Island, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, D.L.; Hammer, R.D.

2001-01-01

During the past century, forest structure on south-facing slopes of Mount Constitution, Orcas Island, Washington, has changed from open-grown Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) mixed with prairie to primarily closed canopy forest. Density of open-grown Douglas-fir was approximately 7 stems/ha in the 19th century, while current density of trees in closed-canopy mature forest is 426 stems/ha. Trees occur at intermediate densities in areas of transition from savanna-like stands to closed canopy. Analysis of fire scars indicates that at least seven fires have occurred on Mount Constitution since 1736, but only one fire has occurred since 1893, which suggests that the recent increase in stem density has been caused primarily by fire exclusion. The high stem densities currently found in this landscape put the relict (120-350+ years old) Douglas-fir at risk from contemporary fires, which would likely be high-intensity crown fires. Given the transition of forests on Orcas Island during the 20th century to closed canopy structure, undisturbed open-grown coniferous forest is now extremely rare in the San Juan Islands.

Large-Scale Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments in ISS Resupply Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David

2013-01-01

Our understanding of the fire safety risk in manned spacecraft has been limited by the small scale of the testing we have been able to conduct in low-gravity. Fire growth and spread cannot be expected to scale linearly with sample size so we cannot make accurate predictions of the behavior of realistic scale fires in spacecraft based on the limited low-g testing to date. As a result, spacecraft fire safety protocols are necessarily very conservative and costly. Future crewed missions are expected to be longer in duration than previous exploration missions outside of low-earth orbit and accordingly, more complex in terms of operations, logistics, and safety. This will increase the challenge of ensuring a fire-safe environment for the crew throughout the mission. Based on our fundamental uncertainty of the behavior of fires in low-gravity, the need for realistic scale testing at reduced gravity has been demonstrated. To address this concern, a spacecraft fire safety research project is underway to reduce the uncertainty and risk in the design of spacecraft fire safety systems by testing at nearly full scale in low-gravity. This project is supported by the NASA Advanced Exploration Systems Program Office in the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The activity of this project is supported by an international topical team of fire experts from other space agencies to maximize the utility of the data and to ensure the widest possible scrutiny of the concept. The large-scale space flight experiment will be conducted on three missions; each in an Orbital Sciences Corporation Cygnus vehicle after it has deberthed from the ISS. Although the experiment will need to meet rigorous safety requirements to ensure the carrier vehicle does not sustain damage, the absence of a crew allows the fire products to be released into the cabin. The tests will be fully automated with the data downlinked at the conclusion of the test before the Cygnus vehicle reenters the atmosphere. The international topical team is collaborating with the NASA team in the definition of the experiment requirements and performing supporting analysis, experimentation and technology development.

Spatial distribution of human-caused forest fires in Galicia (NW Spain)

Treesearch

M. L. Chas-Amil; J. Touza; P. Prestemon

2010-01-01

It is crucial for fire prevention policies to assess the spatial patterns of human-started fires and their relationship with geographical and socioeconomic aspects. This study uses fire reports for the period 1988-2006 in Galicia, Spain, to analyze the spatial distribution of human-induced fire risk attending to causes and underlying motivations associated with fire...

Snowpack, fire, and forest disturbance: interactions affect montane invasions by non-native shrubs.

PubMed

Stevens, Jens T; Latimer, Andrew M

2015-06-01

Montane regions worldwide have experienced relatively low plant invasion rates, a trend attributed to increased climatic severity, low rates of disturbance, and reduced propagule pressure relative to lowlands. Manipulative experiments at elevations above the invasive range of non-native species can clarify the relative contributions of these mechanisms to montane invasion resistance, yet such experiments are rare. Furthermore, global climate change and land use changes are expected to cause decreases in snowpack and increases in disturbance by fire and forest thinning in montane forests. We examined the importance of these factors in limiting montane invasions using a field transplant experiment above the invasive range of two non-native lowland shrubs, Scotch broom (Cytisus scoparius) and Spanish broom (Spartium junceum), in the rain-snow transition zone of the Sierra Nevada of California. We tested the effects of canopy closure, prescribed fire, and winter snow depth on demographic transitions of each species. Establishment of both species was most likely at intermediate levels of canopy disturbance, but at this intermediate canopy level, snow depth had negative effects on winter survival of seedlings. We used matrix population models to show that an 86% reduction in winter snowfall would cause a 2.8-fold increase in population growth rates in Scotch broom and a 3.5-fold increase in Spanish broom. Fall prescribed fire increased germination rates, but decreased overall population growth rates by reducing plant survival. However, at longer fire return intervals, population recovery between fires is likely to keep growth rates high, especially under low snowpack conditions. Many treatment combinations had positive growth rates despite being above the current invasive range, indicating that propagule pressure, disturbance, and climate can all strongly affect plant invasions in montane regions. We conclude that projected reductions in winter snowpack and increases in forest disturbance are likely to increase the risk of invasion from lower elevations. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A study on fire spreading model for the safety distance between the neighborhood occupancies and historical buildings in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C. H.; Chien, S. W.; Ho, M. C.

2015-08-01

Cultural heritages and historical buildings are vulnerable against severe threats from fire. Since the 1970s, ten fire-spread events involving historic buildings have occurred in Taiwan, affecting a total of 132 nearby buildings. Developed under the influence of traditional Taiwanese culture, historic buildings in Taiwan are often built using non-fire resistant brick-wood structure and located in proximity to residential occupancies. Fire outbreak in these types of neighborhood will lead to severe damage of antiquities, leaving only unrecoverable historical imagery. This study is aimed to investigate the minimal safety distance required between a historical building and its surroundings in order to reduce the risk of external fire. This study is based on literature analysis and the fire spread model using a Fire Dynamics Simulator. The selected target is Jingmei Temple in Taipei City. This study explored local geography to identify patterns behind historical buildings distribution. In the past, risk reduction engineering for cultural heritages and historical buildings focused mainly on fire equipment and the available personnel with emergency response ability, and little attention was given to external fire risks and the affected damage. Through discussions on the required safety distance, this research provides guidelines for the following items: management of neighborhoods with historical buildings and consultation between the protection of cultural heritages and disaster prevention, reducing the frequency and extent of fire damages, and preserving cultural resource.

Historical and future emission of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from gas-fired combustion in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Xue, Yifeng; Nie, Lei; Zhou, Zhen; Tian, Hezhong; Yan, Jing; Wu, Xiaoqing; Cheng, Linglong

2017-07-01

The consumption of natural gas in Beijing has increased in the past decade due to energy structure adjustments and air pollution abatement. In this study, an integrated emission inventory of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emitted from gas-fired combustion in Beijing was developed for the period from 2000 to 2014 using a technology-based approach. Future emission trends were projected through 2030 based on current energy-related and emission control policies. We found that emissions of primary HAPs exhibited an increasing trend with the rapid increase in natural gas consumption. Our estimates indicated that the total emissions of NO X , particulate matter (PM) 10 , PM 2.5 , CO, VOCs, SO 2 , black carbon, Pb, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans, and benzo[a]pyrene from gas-fired combustion in Beijing were approximately 22,422 t, 1042 t, 781 t, 19,097 t, 653 t, 82 t, 19 t, 0.6 kg, 0.1 kg, 43 kg, 52 kg, 0.3 kg, 0.03 kg, 4.3 kg, 0.6 kg, 216 μg, and 242 g, respectively, in 2014. To mitigate the associated air pollution and health risks caused by gas-fired combustion, stricter emission standards must be established. Additionally, combustion optimization and flue gas purification system could be used for lowering NO X emissions from gas-fired combustion, and gas-fired facilities should be continuously monitored based on emission limits. Graphical abstract Spatial distribution and typical live photos of gas-fired boiler in Beijing.