Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015

PubMed Central

von Ruesten, Anne; Steffen, Annika; Floegel, Anna; van der A, Daphne L.; Masala, Giovanna; Tjønneland, Anne; Halkjaer, Jytte; Palli, Domenico; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Loos, Ruth J. F.; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.; Boeing, Heiner

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations. Methods Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction. Results During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R2 = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R2 = 0.99). Conclusion Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower. PMID:22102897

Long-term exposure to crystalline silica and risk of heart disease mortality.

PubMed

Liu, Yuewei; Rong, Yi; Steenland, Kyle; Christiani, David C; Huang, Xiji; Wu, Tangchun; Chen, Weihong

2014-09-01

The association between crystalline silica exposure and risk of heart disease mortality remains less clear. We investigated a cohort of 42,572 Chinese workers who were potentially exposed to crystalline silica and followed from 1960 to 2003. Cumulative silica exposure was estimated by linking a job-exposure matrix to each person's work history. Low-level silica exposure was defined as never having held a job with an exposure higher than 0.1 mg/m. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) in exposure-response analyses using Cox proportional hazards model. We identified 2846 deaths from heart disease during an average of 35 years follow-up. Positive exposure-response trends were observed for cumulative silica exposure associated with mortality from total heart disease (HRs for increasing quartiles of cumulative silica exposure compared with the unexposed group = 0.89, 1.09, 1.32, 2.10; P for linear trend < 0.001) and pulmonary heart disease (0.92, 1.39, 2.47, 5.46; P for linear trend < 0.001). These positive trends remained among workers with both high- and low-level silica exposure. There was also a positive trend for ischemic heart disease among workers with low-level exposure, with quartile HRs of 1.04, 1.13, 1.52, and 1.60 (P for linear trend < 0.001). Low-level crystalline silica exposure was associated with increased mortality from heart disease, including pulmonary heart disease and ischemic heart disease, whereas high-level exposure mainly increased mortality from pulmonary heart disease. Current permissible exposure limits for crystalline silica in many countries may be insufficient to protect people from deaths due to heart disease.

Walking for Transportation or Leisure Among U.S. Women and Men - National Health Interview Survey, 2005-2015.

PubMed

Ussery, Emily N; Carlson, Susan A; Whitfield, Geoffrey P; Watson, Kathleen B; Berrigan, David; Fulton, Janet E

2017-06-30

Physical activity confers considerable health benefits, but only half of U.S. adults report participating in levels of aerobic physical activity consistent with guidelines (1,2). Step It Up! The Surgeon General's Call to Action to Promote Walking and Walkable Communities identified walking as an important public health strategy to increase physical activity levels (3). A previous report showed that the self-reported prevalence of walking for transportation or leisure increased by 6 percentage points from 2005 to 2010 (4), but it is unknown whether this increase has been sustained. CDC analyzed National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data from 2005 (26,551 respondents), 2010 (23,313), and 2015 (28,877) to evaluate trends in the age-adjusted prevalence of self-reported walking among adults aged ≥18 years. The prevalence of walking increased steadily among women, from 57.3% in 2005, to 62.5% in 2010, and to 65.1% in 2015 (significant linear trend). Among men, a significant linear increase in reported walking was observed, from 54.3% in 2005, to 61.8% in 2010, and to 62.8% in 2015, although the increase stalled between 2010 and 2015 (significant linear and quadratic trends). Community design policies and practices that encourage pedestrian activity and programs tailored to the needs of specific population subgroups remain important strategies for promoting walking (3).

Trends in asthma mortality in young people in southern Brazil.

PubMed

Chatkin, J M; Barreto, S M; Fonseca, N A; Gutiérrez, C A; Sears, M R

1999-03-01

Mortality from asthma increased and is now declining in some countries, but little is known about these trends in South America. We aimed to assess trends in mortality from asthma in southern Brazil in children and young adults. Death certificates of 425 people in the state of Rio Grande do Sul aged between 5 and 39 years in whom asthma was reported to be the underlying cause of death during the period 1970 to 1992 were reviewed. Population data were available in 10-year age groups. Testing for trends in mortality rates was conducted using linear and log-linear regression procedures. Asthma mortality rates in the age groups 5 to 19 and 20 to 39 years ranged between 0.04 and 0.39/100,000 and 0.28 to 0.75/100,000, respectively, and were nonuniformly distributed over the study period. The mean annual increase in rate in 5- to 19-year olds was +0.01 (95% CI 0.003 to 0.016), an average annual percentage increase of +6.8% (95% CI 3% to 11%), with a total increase of 352% between 1970 and 1992. This increase was not due to a shift in labeling from bronchitis to asthma. In the 20 to 39-year age group, asthma and bronchitis mortality rates showed no trend to increase or decrease. Asthma mortality in southern Brazil is low, but rose significantly between 1970 and 1992 in the 5 to 19-year age group. This trend differs from that found in other states of Brazil and several other Latin American countries. Reasons for this difference remain unclear.

Epidemiology and Trends in Incidence of Kidney Cancer in Iran.

PubMed

Mirzaei, Maryam; Pournamdar, Zahra; Salehiniya, Hamid

2015-01-01

Kidney cancer has shown an increasing trend in recent decades. This study aimed to determine change in the incidence rate between 2003 and 2009 in Iran. In this study, national cancer registry data were used. Crude incidence rates were calculated per 100,000 and age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were computed using the direct standardization method and the world standard population. Significant trend of incidence rates was examined by the Cochran-Armitage test for linear trend. A total of 6,944 cases of kidney cancer were reported. The incidence cases increased from 595 patients in 2003 to 1,387 patients in 2009. Sex ratio (male to female) was 1.67. ASR also increased from 1.18 in 2003 to 2.52 in 2009 per 100,000, but the increasing trend was not significant. A slow increasing trend of incidence rate was observed in the study population. This may be due to an increase of risk factors. It is suggested to perform a study on risk factors for the cancer.

Worldwide Trends of Urinary Stone Disease Treatment Over the Last Two Decades: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Geraghty, Robert M; Jones, Patrick; Somani, Bhaskar K

2017-06-01

Numerous studies have reported on regional or national trends of stone disease treatment. However, no article has yet examined the global trends of intervention for stone disease. A systematic review of articles from 1996 to September 2016 for all English language articles reporting on trends of surgical treatment of stone disease was performed. Authors were contacted in the case of data not being clear. If the authors did not reply, data were estimated from graphs or tables. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 21, and trends were analyzed using linear regression. Our systematic review yielded 120 articles, of which 8 were included in the initial review. This reflected outcomes from six countries with available data: United Kingdom, United States, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and Brazil. Overall ureteroscopy (URS) had a 251.8% increase in total number of treatments performed with the share of total treatments increasing by 17%. While the share of total treatments for percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) remained static, the share for extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy and open surgery fell by 14.5% and 12%, respectively. There was significant linear regression between rising trends of total treatments year on year for URS (p < 0.001). In the last two decades, the share of total treatment for urolithiasis across the published literature has increased for URS, stable for PCNL, and decreased for lithotripsy and open surgery.

Fifteen-year trends in the prevalence of barriers to healthy eating in a high-income country.

PubMed

de Mestral, Carlos; Khalatbari-Soltani, Saman; Stringhini, Silvia; Marques-Vidal, Pedro

2017-03-01

Background: Despite increasing levels of education and income in the Swiss population over time and greater food diversity due to globalization, adherence to dietary guidelines has remained persistently low. This may be because of barriers to healthy eating hampering adherence, but whether these barriers have evolved in prevalence over time has never been assessed, to our knowledge. Objective: We assessed 15-y trends in the prevalence of self-reported barriers to healthy eating in Switzerland overall and according to sex, age, education, and income. Design: We used data from 4 national Swiss Health Surveys conducted between 1997 and 2012 (52,238 participants aged ≥18 y, 55% women), applying multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models to assess trends in prevalence of 6 barriers to healthy eating (taste, price, daily habits, time, lack of willpower, and limited options). Results: The prevalence of 3 barriers exhibited an increasing trend until 2007, followed by a decrease in 2012 (from 44% in 1997 to 50% in 2007 and then to 44% in 2012 for taste, from 40% to 52% and then to 39% for price, and from 29% to 34% and then to 32% for time; quadratic P -trend < 0.0001). Limited options decreased slightly until 2007 (35-33%) and then sharply by 2012 (18%) (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Daily habits remained relatively stable across time from 42% in 1997 to 38% in 2012 (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Conversely, lack of willpower decreased steadily over time from 26% in 1997 to 21% in 2012 (linear P -trend < 0.0001). Trends were similar for all barriers irrespective of sex, age, education, and income. Conclusion: Between 1997 and 2012, barriers to healthy eating remained highly prevalent (≥20%) in the Swiss population and evolved similarly irrespective of age, sex, education, and income. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

[Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

PubMed

Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

2017-05-10

We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P value

Hardness and compression resistance of natural rubber and synthetic rubber mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arguello, J. M.; Santos, A.

2016-02-01

This project aims to mechanically characterize through compression resistance and shore hardness tests, the mixture of hevea brasiliensis natural rubber with butadiene synthetic rubber (BR), styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and ethylene-propylene-diene monomer rubber (EPDM). For each of the studied mixtures were performed 10 tests, each of which increased by 10% the content of synthetic rubber in the mixture; each test consisted of carrying out five tests of compression resistance and five tests of shore hardness. The specimens were vulcanized on a temperature of 160°C, during an approximate time of 15 minutes, and the equipment used in the performance of the mechanical tests were a Shimadzu universal machine and a digital durometer. The results show that the A shore hardness increases directly proportional, with a linear trend, with the content of synthetic BR, SBR or EPDM rubber present in the mixture, being the EPDM the most influential. With respect to the compression resistance is observed that the content of BR or SBR increase this property directly proportional through a linear trend; while the EPDM content also increases but with a polynomial trend.

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

PubMed

Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G; Ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

Identifying trends in sediment discharge from alterations in upstream land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, R.S.; Osterkamp, W.R.

1995-01-01

Environmental monitoring is a primary reason for collecting sediment data. One emphasis of this monitoring is identification of trends in suspended sediment discharge. A stochastic equation was used to generate time series of annual suspended sediment discharges using statistics from gaging stations with drainage areas between 1606 and 1 805 230 km2. Annual sediment discharge was increased linearly to yield a given increase at the end of a fixed period and trend statistics were computed for each simulation series using Kendal's tau (at 0.05 significance level). A parameter was calculated from two factors that control trend detection time: (a) the magnitude of change in sediment discharge, and (b) the natural variability of sediment discharge. In this analysis the detection of a trend at most stations is well over 100 years for a 20% increase in sediment discharge. Further research is needed to assess the sensitivity of detecting trends at sediment stations.

The Trend Odds Model for Ordinal Data‡

PubMed Central

Capuano, Ana W.; Dawson, Jeffrey D.

2013-01-01

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values (Peterson and Harrell, 1990). We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, where the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc Nlmixed, and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical dataset is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a Swine Influenza example where the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. PMID:23225520

The trend odds model for ordinal data.

PubMed

Capuano, Ana W; Dawson, Jeffrey D

2013-06-15

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values. We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, wherein the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc NLMIXED and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical data set is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a swine influenza example wherein the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Climate change at upper treeline: How do trees on the edge react to increasing temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochner, Matthias; Bugmann, Harald; Nötzli, Magdalena; Bigler, Christof

2017-04-01

Treeline ecotones are thought to be particularly sensitive to climate warming, and an alteration of their growth conditions may have important implications for the ecosystem services they supply in mountain regions. We use a novel approach to quantify effects of a changing climate on tree growth, using case studies in the European Alps. We compiled tree-ring data from almost 600 trees of four species at treeline in three climate regions of Switzerland. Temperature loggers installed along transects provided data for a precise interpolation of temperatures experienced by the sampled trees. To assess the influence of temperature on annual growth, we used linear mixed-effects models, allowing us to quantify effect sizes and to account for between-tree growth variability. After removing biological growth trends, we isolated temporal trends of ring-width indices. Furthermore, we fitted non-linear regression models to radial growth rates of individual years with temperature and tree age as predicting covariates for a fine-scale investigation of the temperature dependency of tree growth. For all species, climate-growth linear mixed-effects models indicated strong positive responses of ring-width indices to temperature in early summer and previous year's autumn, featuring considerable between-tree variability. All species showed positive ring-width index trends at treeline but different interactions with elevation: Larix decidua exhibited a declining ring-width index trend with decreasing elevation, whereas Picea abies, Pinus cembra and Pinus mugo showed increasing and/or stable trends. Not only reflected our findings the effects of ameliorated growth conditions, they might have also revealed suspected negative and positive feedbacks of climate change on growth, and increased the knowledge about the functional form and parameterization of the temperature dependency of tree growth.

Trends in bullying victimization by gender among U.S. high school students.

PubMed

Pontes, Nancy M H; Ayres, Cynthia G; Lewandowski, Carla; Pontes, Manuel C F

2018-06-01

This research used four consecutive waves of data from the National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) conducted by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), to estimate linear time trends by gender in the prevalence of school and electronic bullying victimization among U.S. high school students (N = 61,042). Dependent variables were student self-reported school bullying victimization and electronic bullying victimization during the previous 12 months. Independent variables used to estimate multiple logistic regression models by gender were survey year, race/ethnicity, and grade level. Results showed the prevalence of school bullying increased significantly among females from 2009 (21.2%) to 2015 (24.8%), linear trend OR = 1.08 [1.04, 1.12]; and decreased significantly among males from 2009 (18.7%) to 2015 (15.8%), linear trend OR = 0.93 [0.89, 0.98]. Prevalence of electronic bullying was unchanged between 2011 to 2015 among both male and female students. Asian race, relative to White race, was associated with significantly lower rates of both school and electronic bullying victimization among females, but not males. The incidence of school and electronic bullying victimization was significantly lower among Black and Hispanic students, but not among multiple-race students, regardless of student gender. Healthy People 2020 set a goal to reduce school bullying victimization 10% by 2019. As of 2015, school bullying victimization decreased significantly among males (16% decrease); it significantly increased among females (17% increase). Future research should explore underlying factors related to these divergent trends, and develop effective strategies to reverse the alarming rise in female school bullying victimization. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Measuring trends of outpatient antibiotic use in Europe: jointly modelling longitudinal data in defined daily doses and packages.

PubMed

Bruyndonckx, Robin; Hens, Niel; Aerts, Marc; Goossens, Herman; Molenberghs, Geert; Coenen, Samuel

2014-07-01

To complement analyses of the linear trend and seasonal fluctuation of European outpatient antibiotic use expressed in defined daily doses (DDD) by analyses of data in packages, to assess the agreement between both measures and to study changes in the number of DDD per package over time. Data on outpatient antibiotic use, aggregated at the level of the active substance (WHO version 2011) were collected from 2000 to 2007 for 31 countries and expressed in DDD and packages per 1000 inhabitants per day (DID and PID, respectively). Data expressed in DID and PID were analysed separately using non-linear mixed models while the agreement between these measurements was analysed through a joint non-linear mixed model. The change in DDD per package over time was studied with a linear mixed model. Total outpatient antibiotic and penicillin use in Europe and their seasonal fluctuation significantly increased in DID, but not in PID. The use of combinations of penicillins significantly increased in DID and in PID. Broad-spectrum penicillin use did not increase significantly in DID and decreased significantly in PID. For all but one subgroup, country-specific deviations moved in the same direction whether measured in DID or PID. The correlations are not perfect. The DDD per package increased significantly over time for all but one subgroup. Outpatient antibiotic use in Europe shows contrasting trends, depending on whether DID or PID is used as the measure. The increase of the DDD per package corroborates the recommendation to adopt PID to monitor outpatient antibiotic use in Europe. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Uncertainty of Long-term Linear Trend in Global SST Due to Internal Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2016-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of local multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use the record of a specified period to arbitrarily determine the value and the sign of the long-term linear trend in regional SST, and further leading to controversial conclusions on how global SST responds to global warming in the recent history. Analyzing the linear trend coefficient estimated by the ordinary least-square method indicates that the linear trend consists of two parts: One related to the long-term change, and the other related to the multi-scale internal variation. The sign of the long-term change can be correctly reproduced only when the magnitude of the linear trend coefficient is greater than a theoretical threshold which scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the linear trend coefficient will depend on the phase of the internal variation, or in the other words, the period being used. An improved least-square method is then proposed to reduce the theoretical threshold. When apply the new method to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013, we find that in a large part of Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, the influence from the multi-scale internal variation on the sign of the linear trend coefficient can-not be excluded. Therefore, the resulting warming or/and cooling linear trends in these regions can-not be fully assigned to global warming.

Analysis of Zenith Tropospheric Delay above Europe based on long time series derived from the EPN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldysz, Zofia; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Figurski, Mariusz; Szafranek, Karolina; Kroszczynski, Krzysztof; Araszkiewicz, Andrzej

2015-04-01

In recent years, the GNSS system began to play an increasingly important role in the research related to the climate monitoring. Based on the GPS system, which has the longest operational capability in comparison with other systems, and a common computational strategy applied to all observations, long and homogeneous ZTD (Zenith Tropospheric Delay) time series were derived. This paper presents results of analysis of 16-year ZTD time series obtained from the EPN (EUREF Permanent Network) reprocessing performed by the Military University of Technology. To maintain the uniformity of data, analyzed period of time (1998-2013) is exactly the same for all stations - observations carried out before 1998 were removed from time series and observations processed using different strategy were recalculated according to the MUT LAC approach. For all 16-year time series (59 stations) Lomb-Scargle periodograms were created to obtain information about the oscillations in ZTD time series. Due to strong annual oscillations which disturb the character of oscillations with smaller amplitude and thus hinder their investigation, Lomb-Scargle periodograms for time series with the deleted annual oscillations were created in order to verify presence of semi-annual, ter-annual and quarto-annual oscillations. Linear trend and seasonal components were estimated using LSE (Least Square Estimation) and Mann-Kendall trend test were used to confirm the presence of linear trend designated by LSE method. In order to verify the effect of the length of time series on the estimated size of the linear trend, comparison between two different length of ZTD time series was performed. To carry out a comparative analysis, 30 stations which have been operating since 1996 were selected. For these stations two periods of time were analyzed: shortened 16-year (1998-2013) and full 18-year (1996-2013). For some stations an additional two years of observations have significant impact on changing the size of linear trend - only for 4 stations the size of linear trend was exactly the same for two periods of time. In one case, the nature of the trend has changed from negative (16-year time series) for positive (18-year time series). The average value of a linear trends for 16-year time series is 1,5 mm/decade, but their spatial distribution is not uniform. The average value of linear trends for all 18-year time series is 2,0 mm/decade, with better spatial distribution and smaller discrepancies.

21st Century Trends in the Potential for Ozone Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.

2009-05-01

We find robust trends in the area where Antarctic stratospheric temperatures are below the threshold for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. In late winter (September-October-November), cold area trends are consistent with the respective trends in equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), i.e. negative cold area trends in 'realistic future' simulations where EESC decreases and the ozone layer recovers. In the early winter (April through June), regardless of EESC scenario, we find an increasing cold area trend in all simulations; multiple linear regression analysis shows that this early winter cooling trend is associated with the predicted increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the future. We compare the seasonality of the potential for Antarctic ozone depletion in two versions of the GEOS CCM and assess the impact of the above-mentioned cold area trends on polar stratospheric chemistry.

Is Perruchet's dissociation between eyeblink conditioned responding and outcome expectancy evidence for two learning systems?

PubMed

Weidemann, Gabrielle; Tangen, Jason M; Lovibond, Peter F; Mitchell, Christopher J

2009-04-01

P. Perruchet (1985b) showed a double dissociation of conditioned responses (CRs) and expectancy for an airpuff unconditioned stimulus (US) in a 50% partial reinforcement schedule in human eyeblink conditioning. In the Perruchet effect, participants show an increase in CRs and a concurrent decrease in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of reinforced trials; conversely, participants show a decrease in CRs and a concurrent increase in expectancy for the airpuff across runs of nonreinforced trials. Three eyeblink conditioning experiments investigated whether the linear trend in eyeblink CRs in the Perruchet effect is a result of changes in associative strength of the conditioned stimulus (CS), US sensitization, or learning the precise timing of the US. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrated that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is not the result of US sensitization. Experiment 3 showed that the linear trend in eyeblink CRs is present with both a fixed and a variable CS-US interval and so is not the result of learning the precise timing of the US. The results are difficult to reconcile with a single learning process model of associative learning in which expectancy mediates CRs. Copyright (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Trends in reproductive health knowledge following a health education intervention among adolescents in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Rusakaniko, S; Mbizvo, M T; Kasule, J; Gupta, V; Kinoti, S N; Mpanju-Shumbushu, W; Sebina-Zziwa, J; Mwateba, R; Padayachy, J

1997-01-01

Unwanted teenage pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections and the attendant morbidity and mortality necessitate the need for understanding factors influencing adolescent sexuality and the implementation of programmes designed to improve their knowledge, reproductive behaviour, sexual and reproductive health. To determine the impact of an intervention package on knowledge levels of various reproductive health issues through trend analysis. Randomized controlled trial of a health education intervention in schools stratified for representativeness. Rural and urban secondary schools in Zimbabwe. 1,689 students recruited from 11 secondary schools in Mashonaland Central. Knowledge level before and after intervention. The demographic characteristics of the pupils at baseline, five months and nine months were comparable between the two groups. There was an overall increase in knowledge on menstruation. Students from the intervention schools were more likely to have correct knowledge over time on aspects of reproductive biology. A significant linear trend (p = 0.017) was observed in the area of family planning and contraception. A linear decreasing trend (p = 0.001) was observed on pregnancy risk. Though not significantly linear, the general trend of knowledge levels in all the areas of reproductive health, pregnancy risk, STDs and HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend, from 20% to 96%. Worth noting was that in all the areas the intervention group had knowledge above that in the control group. The reproductive health education intervention had an impact on aspects of reproductive biology and contraception as measured by the increased scoring at follow up when comparing intervention and control schools. The overall findings point to the need for early school based reproductive health education programmes incooperating correct information on reproductive biology and the prevention of subsequent reproductive morbidity by imparting information on non-risk behaviour during the early developmental years.

Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

2014-01-01

Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

Changes in time-trends of nutrient intake from fortified and non-fortified food in German children and adolescents--15 year results of the DONALD study. Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study.

PubMed

Sichert-Hellert, W; Kersting, M; Manz, F

2001-04-01

Although fortified products have played an increasing role in food marketing since the 1980s in Germany, data as to the consumption of fortified food is sparse. To assess long-term data on changes in fortified food supply or consumption patterns, nutrient intake, and time trends in the DONALD Study (Dortmund Nutritional and Anthropometric Longitudinally Designed Study). Between 1985 and 2000 consumption of nutrient intake (total and from fortified foods) was evaluated and time trends in energy and nutrient intake were assessed on the basis of 3-day weighed dietary records (n = 4193) of 2-14 year-old males (n = 383) and females (n = 404) enrolled in the DONALD Study. Nutrient intake was expressed as percentage of the current German recommendations. Food products were defined as fortified if enriched with at least one of the following nutrients: Vitamin A or provitamin A carotenoids (summarised as Vitamin A), Vitamins E, B1, B2, B6, C, niacin, folate, calcium or iron. Nutrient supplements and medicine were excluded from this evaluation. Time trends were analysed using linear and non-linear regression models (PROC MIXED, SAS 6.12). In percent of German references [3], non-fortified food contributed to folate intake by 20-30%, to Vitamin E by about 40%, to Vitamin B1 by 50-65%, to Vitamin A, C, B2, calcium, iron by about 65-95%, and to Vitamin B6 and niacin intake by 100% and more. Fortified food alone provided no more than 5% of calcium intake, about 10-20% of iron, Vitamin A and folate intake, up to 40-50% of Vitamin C, B1, B2, E, niacin and up to 80% of Vitamin B6 intake. During the 15 year period of the DONALD Study with total food, we only found a significant linear time trend for Vitamin C, whereas significant non-linear time trends were found for calcium, Vitamin E, B1, B2, B6, niacin and folate. In the latter there was a uniform increase until 1994 and a decrease thereafter. For iron and Vitamin A no significant time trend could be identified. Only iron and Vitamin A intake from fortified food showed a significant linear time trend. All other nutrients studied here gave significant non-linear time trends. Nutrient intake with fortified food reached maximum values between 1994 and 1996 followed by a decrease thereafter. Signs of changing food consumption patterns were found, pointing to an almost uniform decrease of nutrient intake since 1994/96 in our population of German children and adolescents. This could be an alarming indicator of a slight but unpreferable tendency to eat energydense, nutrient-poor foods.

On the spread and control of MDR-TB epidemics: an examination of trends in anti-tuberculosis drug resistance surveillance data

PubMed Central

Cohen, Ted; Jenkins, Helen E.; Lu, Chunling; McLaughlin, Megan; Floyd, Katherine; Zignol, Matteo

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Background Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) poses serious challenges for tuberculosis control in many settings, but trends of MDR-TB have been difficult to measure. Methods We analyzed surveillance and population-representative survey data collected worldwide by the World Health Organization between 1993 and 2012. We examined setting-specific patterns associated with linear trends in the estimated per capita rate of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases to generate hypotheses about factors associated with trends in the transmission of highly drug resistant tuberculosis. Results 59 countries and 39 sub-national settings had at least three years of data, but less than 10% of the population in the WHO-designated 27-high MDR-TB burden settings were in areas with sufficient data to track trends. Among settings in which the majority of MDR-TB was autochthonous, we found 10 settings with statistically significant linear trends in per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified TB cases. Five of these settings had declining trends (Estonia, Latvia, Macao, Hong Kong, and Portugal) ranging from decreases of 3-14% annually, while five had increasing trends (four individual oblasts of the Russian Federation and Botswana) ranging from 14-20% annually. In unadjusted analysis, better surveillance indicators and higher GDP per capita were associated with declining MDR-TB, while a higher existing absolute burden of MDR-TB was associated with an increasing trend. Conclusions Only a small fraction of countries in which the burden of MDR-TB is concentrated currently have sufficient surveillance data to estimate trends in drug-resistant TB. Where trend analysis was possible, smaller absolute burdens of MDR-TB and more robust surveillance systems were associated with declining per capita rates of MDR-TB among new notified cases. PMID:25458783

Breakfast intake among adults with type 2 diabetes: is bigger better?

PubMed Central

Jarvandi, Soghra; Schootman, Mario; Racette, Susan B.

2015-01-01

Objective To assess the association between breakfast energy and total daily energy intake among individuals with type 2 diabetes. Design Cross-sectional study. Daily energy intake was computed from a 24-h dietary recall. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the association between daily energy intake (dependent variable) and quartiles of energy intake at breakfast (independent variable) expressed as either absolute or relative (% of total daily energy intake) terms. Orthogonal polynomial contrasts were used to test for linear and quadratic trends. Models were controlled for sex, age, race/ethnicity, body mass index, physical activity and smoking. In addition, we used separate multiple regression models to test the effect of quartiles of absolute and relative breakfast energy on intake at lunch, dinner, and snacks. Setting The 1999–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Subjects Participants aged ≥ 30 years with self-reported history of diabetes (N = 1,146). Results Daily energy intake increased as absolute breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P < 0.0001; quadratic trend, P = 0.02), but decreased as relative breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P < 0.0001). In addition, while higher quartiles of absolute breakfast intake had no associations with energy intake at subsequent meals, higher quartiles of relative breakfast intake were associated with lower energy intake during all subsequent meals and snacks (P < 0.05). Conclusions Consuming a breakfast that provided less energy or comprised a greater proportion of daily energy intake was associated with lower total daily energy intake in adults with type 2 diabetes. PMID:25529061

Mortality trends due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Brazil.

PubMed

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Gazotto, Gabriel Pereira

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to update and analyze data on mortality trend due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Brazil. Initially, the specific COPD mortality rates were calculated from 1989 to 2009 using data collected from DATASUS (Departamento de Informática do SUS - Brazilian Health System Database). Then, the polynomial regression models from the observed functional relation were estimated based on mortality coefficients and study years. We verified that the general mortality rates due to COPD in Brazil showed an increasing trend from 1989 to 2004, and then decreased. Both genders showed the same increasing tendencies until 2004 and decreased thereafter. The age group under 35 years old showed a linear decreasing trend. All other age groups showed quadratic tendencies, with increases until the years of 1998-1999 and then decreasing. The South and Southeast regions showed the highest COPD mortality rates with increasing trends until the years 2001-2002 and then decreased. The North, Northeast and Central-West regions showed lower mortality rates but increasing trend. This is the first report of COPD mortality stabilization in Brazil since 1980.

Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

2018-04-01

This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced metabolic-activities and shortened crop-duration. Likewise, increased Tmin may result in lesser crop and biomass yields owing to the increased respiration.

Air Pollution and urban climatology at Norfolk, Virginia

Treesearch

W. Maurice Pritchard; Kuldip P. Chopra

1977-01-01

The atmosphere at Norfolk is usually stable, with no strongly prevailing wind direction. Linear regression analyses of visibility data indicate a generally decreasing visibility trend between 1960 and 1972, with a possible trend reversal in later years. A 44 percent increase in the annual frequency of 0-4-mile visibility occurred in 1960-72. Similar analyses of...

Anaemia, prenatal iron use, and risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Haider, Batool A; Olofin, Ibironke; Wang, Molin; Spiegelman, Donna; Ezzati, Majid; Fawzi, Wafaie W

2013-06-21

To summarise evidence on the associations of maternal anaemia and prenatal iron use with maternal haematological and adverse pregnancy outcomes; and to evaluate potential exposure-response relations of dose of iron, duration of use, and haemoglobin concentration in prenatal period with pregnancy outcomes. Systematic review and meta-analysis Searches of PubMed and Embase for studies published up to May 2012 and references of review articles. Randomised trials of prenatal iron use and prospective cohort studies of prenatal anaemia; cross sectional and case-control studies were excluded. 48 randomised trials (17 793 women) and 44 cohort studies (1 851 682 women) were included. Iron use increased maternal mean haemoglobin concentration by 4.59 (95% confidence interval 3.72 to 5.46) g/L compared with controls and significantly reduced the risk of anaemia (relative risk 0.50, 0.42 to 0.59), iron deficiency (0.59, 0.46 to 0.79), iron deficiency anaemia (0.40, 0.26 to 0.60), and low birth weight (0.81, 0.71 to 0.93). The effect of iron on preterm birth was not significant (relative risk 0.84, 0.68 to 1.03). Analysis of cohort studies showed a significantly higher risk of low birth weight (adjusted odds ratio 1.29, 1.09 to 1.53) and preterm birth (1.21, 1.13 to 1.30) with anaemia in the first or second trimester. Exposure-response analysis indicated that for every 10 mg increase in iron dose/day, up to 66 mg/day, the relative risk of maternal anaemia was 0.88 (0.84 to 0.92) (P for linear trend<0.001). Birth weight increased by 15.1 (6.0 to 24.2) g (P for linear trend=0.005) and risk of low birth weight decreased by 3% (relative risk 0.97, 0.95 to 0.98) for every 10 mg increase in dose/day (P for linear trend<0.001). Duration of use was not significantly associated with the outcomes after adjustment for dose. Furthermore, for each 1 g/L increase in mean haemoglobin, birth weight increased by 14.0 (6.8 to 21.8) g (P for linear trend=0.002); however, mean haemoglobin was not associated with the risk of low birth weight and preterm birth. No evidence of a significant effect on duration of gestation, small for gestational age births, and birth length was noted. Daily prenatal use of iron substantially improved birth weight in a linear dose-response fashion, probably leading to a reduction in risk of low birth weight. An improvement in prenatal mean haemoglobin concentration linearly increased birth weight.

Mountain plover population responses to black-tailed prairie dogs in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dinsmore, S.J.; White, Gary C.; Knopf, F.L.

2005-01-01

We studied a local population of mountain plovers (Charadrius montanus) in southern Phillips County, Montana, USA, from 1995 to 2000 to estimate annual rates of recruitment rate (f) and population change (??). We used Pradel models, and we modeled ?? as a constant across years, as a linear time trend, as year-specific, and with an additive effect of area occupied by prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). We modeled recruitment rate (f) as a function of area occupied by prairie dogs with the remaining model structure identical to the best model used to estimate ??. Our results indicated a strong negative effect of area occupied by prairie dogs on both ?? (slope coefficient on a log scale was -0.11; 95% CI was -0.17, -0.05) and f (slope coefficient on a logit scale was -0.23; 95% CI was -0.36, -0.10). We also found good evidence for a negative time trend on ??; this model had substantial weight (wi = 0.31), and the slope coefficient on the linear trend on a log scale was -0.10 (95% CI was -0.15, -0.05). Yearly estimates of ?? were >1 in all years except 1999, indicating that the population initially increased and then stabilized in the last year of the study. We found weak evidence for year-specific estimates of ??; the best model with year-specific estimates had a low weight (wi = 0.02), although the pattern of yearly estimates of ?? closely matched those estimated with a linear time trend. In southern Phillips County, the population trend of mountain plovers closely matched the trend in the area occupied by black-tailed prairie dogs. Black-tailed prairie dogs declined sharply in the mid-1990s in response to an outbreak of sylvatic plague, but their numbers have steadily increased since 1996 in concert with increases in plovers. The results of this study (1) increase our understanding of the dynamics of this population and how they relate to the area occupied by prairie dogs, and (2) will be useful for planning plover conservation in a prairie dog ecosystem.

Non-linear trends and fluctuations in temperature during different growth stages of summer maize in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Cailin; Wu, Jidong; Wang, Xu; He, Xin; Li, Ning

2017-12-01

North China Plain has undergone severe warming trends since the 1950s, but whether this trend is the same during different growth phases for crops remains unknown. Thus, we analyzed the non-linear changes in the minimum temperature (T min ), mean temperature (T mean ) and maximum temperature (T max ) using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method during each growth stage of summer maize based on daily temperature data from 1960 to 2014. Our results strongly suggest that the trends and fluctuations in temperature change are non-linear. These changes can be categorized into four types of trend change according to the combinations of decreasing and increasing trends, and 8 fluctuation modes dominated by the fluctuations of expansion and shrinkage. The amplitude of the fluctuation is primarily expansion in the sowing-jointing stage and shrinkage in the jointing-maturity stage. Moreover, the temperature changes are inconsistent within each growth stage and are not consistent with the overall warming trend observed over the last 55 years. A transition period occurred in both the 1980s and the 1990s for temperatures during the sowing-tasseling stage. Furthermore, the cooling trend of the T max was significant in the sowing-emergence stage, while this cooling trend was not obvious for both T mean and T min in the jointing-tasseling stage. These results showed that temperature change was significantly different in different stages of the maize growth season. The results can serve as a scientific basis for a better understanding of the actual changes in the regional surface air temperature and agronomic heat resources.

Trunk motion and gait characteristics of pregnant women when walking: report of a longitudinal study with a control group

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A longitudinal repeated measures design over pregnancy and post-birth, with a control group would provide insight into the mechanical adaptations of the body under conditions of changing load during a common female human lifespan condition, while minimizing the influences of inter human differences. The objective was to investigate systematic changes in the range of motion for the pelvic and thoracic segments of the spine, the motion between these segments (thoracolumbar spine) and temporospatial characteristics of step width, stride length and velocity during walking as pregnancy progresses and post-birth. Methods Nine pregnant women were investigated when walking along a walkway at a self-selected velocity using an 8 camera motion analysis system on four occasions throughout pregnancy and once post birth. A control group of twelve non-pregnant nulliparous women were tested on three occasions over the same time period. The existence of linear trends for change was investigated. Results As pregnancy progresses there was a significant linear trend for increase in step width (p = 0.05) and a significant linear trend for decrease in stride length (p = 0.05). Concurrently there was a significant linear trend for decrease in the range of motion of the pelvic segment (p = 0.03) and thoracolumbar spine (p = 0.01) about a vertical axis (side to side rotation), and the pelvic segment (p = 0.04) range of motion around an anterio-posterior axis (side tilt). Post-birth, step width readapted whereas pelvic (p = 0.02) and thoracic (p < 0.001) segment flexion-extension range of motion decreased and increased respectively. The magnitude of all changes was greater than that accounted for with natural variability with re testing. Conclusions As pregnancy progressed and post-birth there were significant linear trends seen in biomechanical changes when walking at a self-determined natural speed that were greater than that accounted for by natural variability with repeated testing. Not all adaptations were resolved by eight weeks post birth. PMID:23514204

The intra-day dynamics of affect, self-esteem, tiredness, and suicidality in Major Depression.

PubMed

Crowe, Eimear; Daly, Michael; Delaney, Liam; Carroll, Susan; Malone, Kevin M

2018-02-21

Despite growing interest in the temporal dynamics of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), we know little about the intra-day fluctuations of key symptom constructs. In a study of momentary experience, the Experience Sampling Method captured the within-day dynamics of negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, passive suicidality, and tiredness across clinical MDD (N= 31) and healthy control groups (N= 33). Ten symptom measures were taken per day over 6 days (N= 2231 observations). Daily dynamics were modeled via intra-day time-trends, variability, and instability in symptoms. MDD participants showed significantly increased variability and instability in negative affect, positive affect, self-esteem, and suicidality. Significantly different time-trends were found in positive affect (increased diurnal variation and an inverted U-shaped pattern in MDD, compared to a positive linear trend in controls) and tiredness (decreased diurnal variation in MDD). In the MDD group only, passive suicidality displayed a negative linear trend and self-esteem displayed a quadratic inverted U trend. MDD and control participants thus showed distinct dynamic profiles in all symptoms measured. As well as the overall severity of symptoms, intra-day dynamics appear to define the experience of MDD symptoms. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time-varying trends of global vegetation activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, N.; Feng, X.; Fu, B.

2016-12-01

Vegetation plays an important role in regulating the energy change, water cycle and biochemical cycle in terrestrial ecosystems. Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation activity and understanding their driving factors have been an important issue in global change research. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of vegetation activity, has been widely used in investigating vegetation changes at regional and global scales. Most studies utilized linear regression or piecewise linear regression approaches to obtain an averaged changing rate over a certain time span, with an implicit assumption that the trend didn't change over time during that period. However, no evidence shows that this assumption is right for the non-linear and non-stationary NDVI time series. In this study, we adopted the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) method to extract the time-varying trends of NDVI from original signals without any a priori assumption of their functional form. Our results show that vegetation trends are spatially and temporally non-uniform during 1982-2013. Most vegetated area exhibited greening trends in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the area with greening trends decreased over time since the early 1990s, and the greening trends have stalled or even reversed in many places. Regions with browning trends were mainly located in southern low latitudes in the 1980s, whose area decreased before the middle 1990s and then increased at an accelerated rate. The greening-to-browning reversals were widespread across all continents except Oceania (43% of the vegetated areas), most of which happened after the middle 1990s. In contrast, the browning-to-greening reversals occurred in smaller area and earlier time. The area with monotonic greening and browning trends accounted for 33% and 5% of the vegetated area, respectively. By performing partial correlation analyses between NDVI and climatic elements (temperature, precipitation and cloud cover) and analyzing the MEEMD-extracted trends of these climatic elements, we discussed possible driving factors of the time-varying trends of NDVI in several specific regions where trend reversals occurred.

Trend of brain tumor incidence by histological subtypes in Japan: estimation from the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan, 1973-1993.

PubMed

Kaneko, Satoshi; Nomura, Kazuhiro; Yoshimura, Takesumi; Yamaguchi, Naohito

2002-10-01

In order to estimate the risk of primary brain tumor (PBT), we attempted to estimate the national incidence rates of PBT by histological subtypes using the Brain Tumor Registry of Japan (BTR). The number of deaths due to PBT in a certain year is the sum of the deaths among patients diagnosed in different years. Registered cases in the BTR represent incident cases of PBT in the whole country multiplied by a cover rate. The cover rate is defined as the proportions of PBT cases that the Registry counts in relation to all the cases in the country in a given year. If the survival experience among the registered cases represents the survival experience of all cases, then the rate of registered deaths represents all deaths due to PBT in Japan. By this logic, we estimated the cover rates and incidence rates from 1973 to 1993 using the BTR and National Vital Statistics data. Our estimates showed three patterns of time trends: (1) a gradual linear increasing trend before the 1980s followed by a plateau (total PBT, gliomas, meningioma, and hemangioblastoma), (2) a trend with a step-up increase in the 1980s followed by a plateau (germ cell tumor and pituitary tumor), and (3) a linear increasing trend throughout the observation period with no plateau (malignant lymphoma and neurinoma). Furthermore, obvious sex differences in time trends were observed in rates of meningioma, germ cell tumor, and pituitary tumor. The results of this study demonstrated several distinctive patterns in time trends, which give us insight into the possible etiologies of brain tumors. Further epidemiological study is needed to elucidate these findings.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bartolac, S; Letourneau, D; University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario

Purpose: Application of process control theory in quality assurance programs promises to allow earlier identification of problems and potentially better quality in delivery than traditional paradigms based primarily on tolerances and action levels. The purpose of this project was to characterize underlying seasonal variations in linear accelerator output that can be used to improve performance or trigger preemptive maintenance. Methods: Review of runtime plots of daily (6 MV) output data acquired using in house ion chamber based devices over three years and for fifteen linear accelerators of varying make and model were evaluated. Shifts in output due to known interventionsmore » with the machines were subtracted from the data to model an uncorrected scenario for each linear accelerator. Observable linear trends were also removed from the data prior to evaluation of periodic variations. Results: Runtime plots of output revealed sinusoidal, seasonal variations that were consistent across all units, irrespective of manufacturer, model or age of machine. The average amplitude of the variation was on the order of 1%. Peak and minimum variations were found to correspond to early April and September, respectively. Approximately 48% of output adjustments made over the period examined were potentially avoidable if baseline levels had corresponded to the mean output, rather than to points near a peak or valley. Linear trends were observed for three of the fifteen units, with annual increases in output ranging from 2–3%. Conclusion: Characterization of cyclical seasonal trends allows for better separation of potentially innate accelerator behaviour from other behaviours (e.g. linear trends) that may be better described as true out of control states (i.e. non-stochastic deviations from otherwise expected behavior) and could indicate service requirements. Results also pointed to an optimal setpoint for accelerators such that output of machines is maintained within set tolerances and interventions are required less frequently.« less

Local Increases in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Among Blacks and Whites in the United States, 1985–1995

PubMed Central

Barnett, Elizabeth; Halverson, Joel

2001-01-01

Objectives. This study analyzed coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality trends from 1985 to 1995, by race and sex, among Black and White adults 35 years and older to determine whether adverse trends were evident in any US localities. Methods. Log-linear regression models of annual age-adjusted death rates provided a quantitative measure of local mortality trends. Results. Increasing trends in CHD mortality were observed in 11 of 174 labor market areas for Black women, 23 of 175 areas for Black men, 10 of 394 areas for White women, and 4 of 394 areas for White men. Nationwide, adverse trends affected 1.7% of Black women, 8.0% of Black men, 1.1% of White women, and 0.3% of White men. Conclusions. From 1985 to 1995, moderate to strong local increases in CHD mortality were observed, predominantly in the southern United States. Black men evidenced the most unfavorable trends and were 25 times as likely as White men to be part of a local population experiencing increases in coronary heart disease mortality. PMID:11527788

Demographic trends among older cannabis users in the United States, 2006–13

PubMed Central

Han, Benjamin H.; Sherman, Scott; Mauro, Pia M.; Martins, Silvia S.; Rotenberg, James; Palamar, Joseph J.

2017-01-01

Background and Aims The ageing US population is providing an unprecedented population of older adults who use recreational drugs. We aimed to estimate the trends in the prevalence of past-year use of cannabis, describe the patterns and attitudes and determine correlates of cannabis use by adults age 50 years and older. Design Secondary analysis of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health survey from 2006 to 2013, a cross-sectional survey given to a nationally representative probability sample of populations living in US households. Setting USA. Participants A total of 47 140 survey respondents aged ≥ 50 years. Measures Estimates and trends of past-year use of cannabis. Findings The prevalence of past-year cannabis use among adults aged ≥ 50 increased significantly from 2006/07 to 2012/13, with a 57.8% relative increase for adults aged 50–64 (linear trend P < 0.001) and a 250% relative increase for those aged ≥ 65 (linear trend P = 0.002). When combining data from 2006 to 2013, 6.9% of older cannabis users met criteria for cannabis abuse or dependence, and the majority of the sample reported perceiving no risk or slight risk associated with monthly cannabis use (85.3%) or weekly use (79%). Past-year users were more likely to be younger, male, non-Hispanic, not have multiple chronic conditions and use tobacco, alcohol or other drugs compared with non-past-year cannabis users. Conclusions The prevalence of cannabis use has increased significantly in recent years among US adults aged ≥ 50 years. PMID:27767235

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Schut, Antonius G. T.; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

2015-01-01

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity. PMID:26466347

Detecting trends in raptor counts: power and type I error rates of various statistical tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, J.S.; Gould, W.R.; Hoover, B.A.; Fuller, M.R.; Lindquist, E.L.

1996-01-01

We conducted simulations that estimated power and type I error rates of statistical tests for detecting trends in raptor population count data collected from a single monitoring site. Results of the simulations were used to help analyze count data of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) from 7 national forests in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin during 1980-1989. Seven statistical tests were evaluated, including simple linear regression on the log scale and linear regression with a permutation test. Using 1,000 replications each, we simulated n = 10 and n = 50 years of count data and trends ranging from -5 to 5% change/year. We evaluated the tests at 3 critical levels (alpha = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10) for both upper- and lower-tailed tests. Exponential count data were simulated by adding sampling error with a coefficient of variation of 40% from either a log-normal or autocorrelated log-normal distribution. Not surprisingly, tests performed with 50 years of data were much more powerful than tests with 10 years of data. Positive autocorrelation inflated alpha-levels upward from their nominal levels, making the tests less conservative and more likely to reject the null hypothesis of no trend. Of the tests studied, Cox and Stuart's test and Pollard's test clearly had lower power than the others. Surprisingly, the linear regression t-test, Collins' linear regression permutation test, and the nonparametric Lehmann's and Mann's tests all had similar power in our simulations. Analyses of the count data suggested that bald eagles had increasing trends on at least 2 of the 7 national forests during 1980-1989.

Quantifying Main Trends in Lysozyme Nucleation: The Effects of Precipitant Concentration, Supersaturation and Impurities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, Michael W.; Leardi, Riccardo; Judge, Russell A.; Pusey, Marc L.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Full factorial experimental design incorporating multi-linear regression analysis of the experimental data allows quick identification of main trends and effects using a limited number of experiments. In this study these techniques were employed to identify the effect of precipitant concentration, supersaturation, and the presence of an impurity, the physiological lysozyme dimer, on the nucleation rate and crystal dimensions of the tetragonal forin of chicken egg white lysozyme. Decreasing precipitant concentration, increasing supers aturation, and increasing impurity, were found to increase crystal numbers. The crystal axial ratio decreased with increasing precipitant concentration, independent of impurity.

Length-dependent thermal transport in one-dimensional self-assembly of planar π-conjugated molecules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Hao; Xiong, Yucheng; Zu, Fengshuo; Zhao, Yang; Wang, Xiaomeng; Fu, Qiang; Jie, Jiansheng; Yang, Juekuan; Xu, Dongyan

2016-06-01

This work reports a thermal transport study in quasi-one-dimensional organic nanostructures self-assembled from conjugated planar molecules via π-π interactions. Thermal resistances of single crystalline copper phthalocyanine (CuPc) and perylenetetracarboxylic diimide (PTCDI) nanoribbons are measured via a suspended thermal bridge method. We experimentally observed the deviation from the linear length dependence for the thermal resistance of single crystalline β-phase CuPc nanoribbons, indicating possible subdiffusion thermal transport. Interestingly, a gradual transition to the linear length dependence is observed with the increase of the lateral dimensions of CuPc nanoribbons. The measured thermal resistance of single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons shows an increasing trend with temperature. However, the trend of temperature dependence of thermal resistance is reversed after electron irradiation, i.e., decreasing with temperature, indicating that the single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons become `amorphous'. Similar behavior is also observed for PTCDI nanoribbons after electron irradiation, proving that the electron beam can induce amorphization of single crystalline self-assembled nanostructures of planar π-conjugated molecules. The measured thermal resistance of the `amorphous' CuPc nanoribbon demonstrates a roughly linear dependence on the nanoribbon length, suggesting that normal diffusion dominates thermal transport.This work reports a thermal transport study in quasi-one-dimensional organic nanostructures self-assembled from conjugated planar molecules via π-π interactions. Thermal resistances of single crystalline copper phthalocyanine (CuPc) and perylenetetracarboxylic diimide (PTCDI) nanoribbons are measured via a suspended thermal bridge method. We experimentally observed the deviation from the linear length dependence for the thermal resistance of single crystalline β-phase CuPc nanoribbons, indicating possible subdiffusion thermal transport. Interestingly, a gradual transition to the linear length dependence is observed with the increase of the lateral dimensions of CuPc nanoribbons. The measured thermal resistance of single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons shows an increasing trend with temperature. However, the trend of temperature dependence of thermal resistance is reversed after electron irradiation, i.e., decreasing with temperature, indicating that the single crystalline CuPc nanoribbons become `amorphous'. Similar behavior is also observed for PTCDI nanoribbons after electron irradiation, proving that the electron beam can induce amorphization of single crystalline self-assembled nanostructures of planar π-conjugated molecules. The measured thermal resistance of the `amorphous' CuPc nanoribbon demonstrates a roughly linear dependence on the nanoribbon length, suggesting that normal diffusion dominates thermal transport. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c5nr09043a

Trends in cancer incidence in female breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, and ovary in India.

PubMed

Yeole, Balkrishna B

2008-01-01

Trends in breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri and ovarian cancers in six population based cancer registries (Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal, and Barshi) were evaluated over a period of the last two decades. For studying trends we used a model that fits this data is the logarithm of Y=ABx which represents a Linear Regression model. This approach showed a decreasing trend for cancer of the cervix and increasing trends for cancers of breast, ovary and corpus uteri throughout the entire period of observation in most of the registries. The four cancers, breast, cervix, corpus uteri and ovary, constitute more than 50% of total cancers in women. As all these cancers are increasing, to understand their etiology in depth, analytic epidemiology studies should be planned in a near future on a priority basis.

Unmetabolized Folic Acid, Tetrahydrofolate, and Colorectal Adenoma Risk.

PubMed

Rees, Judy R; Morris, Carolyn B; Peacock, Janet L; Ueland, Per M; Barry, Elizabeth L; McKeown-Eyssen, Gail E; Figueiredo, Jane C; Snover, Dale C; Baron, John A

2017-08-01

In a randomized trial of folic acid supplementation for the prevention of colorectal adenomas, we previously found indications of increased risk during later treatment and follow-up. This could have been due to the unmetabolized folic acid (UFA) or natural reduced and methylated folates (mF) to which it is metabolized. In post hoc analyses, we measured mF (the sum of 5-methyl-tetrahydrofolate and 4-alfa-hydroxy-5-methyl-THF) and UFA concentrations in the serum of 924 participants. Using binomial regression models with a log link, we assessed the associations between plasma mF or UFA and adenoma occurrence. We found no association between plasma mF or UFA and overall adenoma risk. However, during later follow-up, the prespecified, composite endpoint of high-risk findings (advanced or multiple adenomas) was positively associated with plasma mF ( P linear trend = 0.009), with a 58% increased risk for participants in the upper versus lowest quartile. An irregular association was seen with plasma UFA, with suggestions of an inverse trend ( P linear trend =0.049). A modest, significant inverse association was also seen between mF and risk of serrated lesions, with a 39% lower risk for upper versus lower quartile participants ( P linear trend = 0.03). In conclusion, during the later follow-up period in which folic acid supplementation was previously seen to increase the risk of advanced and multiple adenomas, higher serum mF was associated with a higher risk of multiple and/or advanced adenomas, but no clear indication that UFA played a direct role. There were indications that higher mF was associated with reduced risk of serrated polyps. Cancer Prev Res; 10(8); 451-8. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Joint trajectories of cognitive functioning and challenging behavior for persons living with dementia in long-term care.

PubMed

Robitaille, Annie; Garcia, Linda; McIntosh, Cameron

2015-09-01

The current study examines the longitudinal relationship between dementia-related challenging behaviors (e.g., vocal disruption, physical aggression, repetitive behaviors, and restlessness) and cognitive functioning in the long-term care (LTC) context. A multivariate latent growth curve model within the structural equation modeling (SEM) framework was applied to data collected from 16,804 older adults upon admission to LTC and every 3 months for a period of 2.5 years. Increases in challenging behaviors were characterized by a significant positive linear and negative quadratic trend (i.e., a subtle leveling off at later assessment times), whereas increases in cognitive impairment were characterized by a positive linear trend. On average, individuals who were more cognitively impaired upon entry into LTC and who exhibited a steeper increase in cognitive impairment also exhibited more challenging behaviors at entry into LTC and a steeper increase in challenging behaviors, respectively. At the within-person level, individuals demonstrating an increase in cognitive impairment at a specific occasion were also more likely to demonstrate an increase in challenging behaviors at that same occasion; however, the magnitude of these effects was very small, suggesting limited practical implications. This study provides novel empirical evidence about the coevolution of cognitive impairment and challenging behaviors, going beyond prior research that has been either cross-sectional in nature, examined longitudinal change in only 1 variable, or simply looked at linear trends without attempting to explore the possibility of nonlinear change. Most importantly, this longitudinal examination of persons with dementia living in LTC has implications for how challenging behaviors can be better managed and for how new strategies can be implemented to prevent challenging behaviors. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Bariatric surgery trends: an 18-year report from the International Bariatric Surgery Registry.

PubMed

Samuel, Isaac; Mason, Edward E; Renquist, Kathleen E; Huang, Yu-Hui; Zimmerman, M Bridget; Jamal, Mohammad

2006-11-01

The epidemic of morbid obesity has increased bariatric procedures performed. Trend analyses provide important information that may impact individual practices. Patient data from 137 surgeons were examined from 1987 to 2004 (41,860 patients) using Cochran-Armitage Trend test and Generalized Linear Model. Over an 18-year period, surgeon preference for combined restrictive-malabsorptive procedures increased from 33% to 94%, while simple gastric restriction decreased correspondingly (P < .0001). Surgeons per worksite doubled and cases per surgeon increased 71%. Laparoscopic procedures increased to 24%. The percentage of males, mean operative age, and initial body mass index (BMI) increased significantly (P < .0001). Postoperative hospital stay decreased from 5.0 to 3.9 days (P < .0001). The most common procedure in 2004 was Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) (59%). Bariatric surgery patients are now older and heavier, length of stay is shorter, and the laparoscopic approach is more frequent. From 1987 to 2004, the general trend shows a clear preference for combined restrictive-malabsorptive operations.

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Age and Employee Green Behaviors: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Wiernik, Brenton M.; Dilchert, Stephan; Ones, Deniz S.

2016-01-01

Recent economic and societal developments have led to an increasing emphasis on organizational environmental performance. At the same time, demographic trends are resulting in increasingly aging labor forces in many industrialized nations. Commonly held stereotypes suggest that older workers are less likely to be environmentally responsible than younger workers. To evaluate the degree to which such age differences are present, we meta-analyzed 132 independent correlations and 336 d-values based on 4676 professional workers from 22 samples in 11 countries. Contrary to popular stereotypes, age showed small positive relationships with pro-environmental behaviors, suggesting that older adults engaged in these workplace behaviors slightly more frequently. Relationships with age appeared to be linear for overall, Conserving, Avoiding Harm, and Taking Initiative pro-environmental behaviors, but non-linear trends were observed for Transforming and Influencing Others behaviors. PMID:26973550

Seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours according to educational level and ethnic background among 14-year-old adolescents.

PubMed

Meijerink, Frederika J; van Vuuren, C Leontine; Wijnhoven, Hanneke A H; van Eijsden, Manon

2016-04-01

To assess seven-year time trends in energy balance-related behaviours in 14-year-old adolescents living in an urban area and to examine the influence of educational level and ethnicity on these time trends. Second grade students (mean age 13·6 years) filled in questionnaires about the energy balance-related behaviours of breakfast consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and screen-time behaviour from school years 2006-2007 to 2012-2013. Energy balance-related behaviours were dichotomized and logistic regression analyses were used to examine time trends in healthy energy balance-related behaviours, including interaction terms for educational level and ethnicity. Secondary schools in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Per school year, 2185-3331 children participated. The total sample included 19 244 students of Dutch, Surinamese, Turkish and Moroccan ethnic background. A significant linear increase was found for positive screen-time behaviour (<2 h/d; OR per year=1·04; 95 % CI 1·03, 1·06). For daily vegetable consumption a non-linear negative trend was observed (school year 2012-2013 v. 2006-2007: OR=0·90; 95 % CI 0·80, 1·00). Time trends in screen time were significantly different across educational levels (P-interaction=0·002) and ethnic backgrounds (P<0·001), as were time trends in daily fruit consumption (P=0·017 and P=0·018, respectively) and, for ethnicity, trends in daily vegetable consumption (P<0·001). The increase in positive screen-time behaviour is a positive finding. However, discouraging screen time and promoting other healthy behaviours, more specifically daily fruit and vegetable consumption, remain important particularly among adolescents enrolled in pre-vocational education and of non-Dutch ethnic background.

[Analysis on the trend of long-term change of blood pressure in hypertensive patients treated with benazepril].

PubMed

Lu, Jun; Li, Li-Ming; He, Ping-Ping; Cao, Wei-Hua; Zhan, Si-Yan; Hu, Yong-Hua

2004-06-01

To introduce the application of mixed linear model in the analysis of secular trend of blood pressure under antihypertensive treatment. A community-based postmarketing surveillance of benazepril was conducted in 1831 essential hypertensive patients (age range from 35 to 88 years) in Shanghai. Data of blood pressure was analyzed every 3 months with mixed linear model to describe the secular trend of blood pressure and changes of age-specific and gender-specific. The changing trends of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were found to fit the curvilinear models. A piecewise model was fit for pulse pressure (PP), i.e., curvilinear model in the first 9 months and linear model after 9 months of taking medication. Both blood pressure and its velocity gradually slowed down. There were significant variation for the curve parameters of intercept, slope, and acceleration. Blood pressure in patients with higher initial levels was persistently declining in the 3-year-treatment. However blood pressures of patients with relatively low initial levels remained low when dropped down to some degree. Elderly patients showed high SBP but low DBP, so as with higher PP. The velocity and sizes of blood pressure reductions increased with the initial level of blood pressure. Mixed linear model is flexible and robust when applied to the analysis of longitudinal data but with missing values and can also make the maximum use of available information.

Medico-legal litigation in Obstetrics: a characterization analysis of a decade in Portugal.

PubMed

Domingues, Ana Patrícia Rodrigues; Belo, Adriana; Moura, Paulo; Vieira, Duarte Nuno

2015-05-01

It was to analyse the most critical areas in Obstetrics and to suggest measures to reduce or avoid the situations most often involved in these disputes. Obstetrics cases submitted to the Medico-legal Council since the creation of the National Institute of Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences in 2001 until 2011 were evaluated. A comprehensive characterization, determination of absolute/relative frequencies, hypothesis of a linear trend over the years and the association between each parameter was done. The analysis has shown no significantly linear trend. The most common reasons for disputes were perinatal asphyxia (50%), traumatic injuries of the newborn (24%), maternal sequelae (19%) and issues related to prenatal diagnosis and/or obstetric ultrasound (5.4%). Perinatal asphyxia showed no significantly linear trend (p=0.58) and was usually related to perinatal deaths or permanent neurologic sequelae in newborn children. Traumatic injuries of the newborn, mostly related to instrumented deliveries, shoulder dystocia or vaginal delivery in breech presentation, has shown a significantly increased linear trend (p<0.001), especially related to instrumented deliveries. The delay/absence of cesarean section was the clinical procedure questioned in a significantly higher number of cases of perinatal asphyxia (68.7%) and of traumatic lesions of the newborn due to instrumented deliveries (20.5%). It is important to improve and correct theoretical/practical daily clinical performance in these highlighted areas, in order to reduce or even avoid situations that could end up in medico-legal litigations.

Extent of Atypical Hyperplasia Stratifies Breast Cancer Risk in Two Independent Cohorts of Women

PubMed Central

Degnim, Amy C.; Dupont, William D.; Radisky, Derek C.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Frank, Ryan D.; Frost, Marlene H.; Winham, Stacey J.; Sanders, Melinda E.; Smith, Jeffrey R.; Page, David L.; Hoskin, Tanya L.; Vachon, Celine M.; Ghosh, Karthik; Hieken, Tina J.; Denison, Lori A.; Carter, Jodi M.; Hartmann, Lynn C.; Visscher, Daniel W.

2016-01-01

Background Women with atypical hyperplasia (AH) on breast biopsy have a substantially increased risk of breast cancer (BC). Here we report BC risk with AH extent and subtype in two separate cohorts. Methods All samples containing AH were included from two cohorts of benign breast disease, Mayo Clinic and Nashville. Histology review quantified the number of foci of atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) and atypical lobular hyperplasia (ALH). BC risk was stratified for number of AH foci within AH subtypes. Results The study included 708 Mayo and 466 Nashville AH subjects. In the Mayo Cohort, increasing foci of AH was associated with a significant increase in risk of BC, both for ADH (RR’s of 2.61, 5.21, and 6.36 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci, p=0.006 for linear trend) and for ALH (RR’s of 2.56, 3.50, and 6.79 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci, p=0.001 for linear trend). In the Nashville Cohort, RR’s of BC for ADH were 2.70, 5.17, and 15.06 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci respectively (p<0.001 for linear trend); for ALH, RR’s also increased but not significantly (2.61, 3.48, and 4.02, p=0.148). Combining both Mayo and Nashville samples, risk increased significantly for 1, 2, and 3+ foci: RR’s of 2.65, 5.19, and 8.94 for ADH (p<0.001), and 2.58, 3.49, and 4.97 for ALH (p=0.001). Conclusions In two independent cohort studies of benign breast disease, extent of atypia stratifies long-term breast cancer risk for ADH and ALH. PMID:27352219

Semi-automatic mapping of linear-trending bedforms using 'Self-Organizing Maps' algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foroutan, M.; Zimbelman, J. R.

2017-09-01

Increased application of high resolution spatial data such as high resolution satellite or Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) images from Earth, as well as High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images from Mars, makes it necessary to increase automation techniques capable of extracting detailed geomorphologic elements from such large data sets. Model validation by repeated images in environmental management studies such as climate-related changes as well as increasing access to high-resolution satellite images underline the demand for detailed automatic image-processing techniques in remote sensing. This study presents a methodology based on an unsupervised Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm, known as Self Organizing Maps (SOM), to achieve the semi-automatic extraction of linear features with small footprints on satellite images. SOM is based on competitive learning and is efficient for handling huge data sets. We applied the SOM algorithm to high resolution satellite images of Earth and Mars (Quickbird, Worldview and HiRISE) in order to facilitate and speed up image analysis along with the improvement of the accuracy of results. About 98% overall accuracy and 0.001 quantization error in the recognition of small linear-trending bedforms demonstrate a promising framework.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil

PubMed Central

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Methods: Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. Results: There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Conclusions: Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. PMID:28380185

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2017-01-01

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this paper, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that the effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.

Effects of linear trends on estimation of noise in GNSS position time-series

DOE PAGES

Dmitrieva, K.; Segall, P.; Bradley, A. M.

2016-10-20

A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this study, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that themore » effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Finally, overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.« less

Rising Intragenerational Occupational Mobility in the United States, 1969 to 2011

PubMed Central

Jarvis, Benjamin F.; Song, Xi

2017-01-01

Despite the theoretical importance of intragenerational mobility and its connection to intergenerational mobility, no study since the 1970s has documented trends in intragenerational occupational mobility. The present article fills this intellectual gap by presenting evidence of an increasing trend in intragenerational mobility in the United States from 1969 to 2011. We decompose the trend using a nested occupational classification scheme that distinguishes between disaggregated micro-classes and progressively more aggregated meso-classes, macro-classes, and manual and nonmanual sectors. Log-linear analysis reveals that mobility increased across the occupational structure at nearly all levels of aggregation, especially after the early 1990s. Controlling for structural changes in occupational distributions modifies, but does not substantially alter, these findings. Trends are qualitatively similar for men and women. We connect increasing mobility to other macro-economic trends dating back to the 1970s, including changing labor force composition, technologies, employment relations, and industrial structures. We reassert the sociological significance of intragenerational mobility and discuss how increasing variability in occupational transitions within careers may counteract or mask trends in intergenerational mobility, across occupations and across more broadly construed social classes. PMID:28966346

Non-linear patterns in age-related DNA methylation may reflect CD4+ T cell differentiation

PubMed Central

Johnson, Nicholas D.; Wiener, Howard W.; Smith, Alicia K.; Nishitani, Shota; Absher, Devin M.; Arnett, Donna K.; Aslibekyan, Stella; Conneely, Karen N.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT DNA methylation (DNAm) is an important epigenetic process involved in the regulation of gene expression. While many studies have identified thousands of loci associated with age, few have differentiated between linear and non-linear DNAm trends with age. Non-linear trends could indicate early- or late-life gene regulatory processes. Using data from the Illumina 450K array on 336 human peripheral blood samples, we identified 21 CpG sites that associated with age (P<1.03E-7) and exhibited changing rates of DNAm change with age (P<1.94E-6). For 2 of these CpG sites (cg07955995 and cg22285878), DNAm increased with age at an increasing rate, indicating that differential DNAm was greatest among elderly individuals. We observed significant replication for both CpG sites (P<5.0E-8) in a second set of peripheral blood samples. In 8 of 9 additional data sets comprising samples of monocytes, T cell subtypes, and brain tissue, we observed a pattern directionally consistent with DNAm increasing with age at an increasing rate, which was nominally significant in the 3 largest data sets (4.3E-15

Further study on the solar activity variation of daytime NmF2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yiding; Liu, Libo

2010-12-01

The ionosonde observations in the East Asia-Australia sector are collected to further investigate the solar activity variation of daytime (0800 ˜ 1600 LT) NmF2. The linear increase rate of NmF2 with F10.7 at lower solar activity levels is remarkably dependent on latitude, season, and local time. The rate is largest in equinoxes (with an equinoctial asymmetry) and higher in the morning (afternoon) in local winter (summer) at geomagnetic midlatitudes; particularly, the maximum rates in local winter are obviously larger than those in local summer at northern midlatitudes. In the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest regions, the rates in equinoxes and December (June) solstice are remarkably higher than those in June (December) solstice at the northern (southern) EIA crest, and the rate grows from the morning sector to the afternoon sector. The variation trend of NmF2 with F10.7 also shows latitudinal, seasonal, and local time dependences. The saturation effect dominates in all seasons in the EIA regions; at midlatitudes, NmF2 nearly increases linearly with F10.7 in local winter so that a linear fit is a good approximation for NmF2 modeling, while the saturation effect still dominates in other seasons. The saturation effect is more significant in the afternoon, and the strongest saturation effect appears at the EIA crest latitudes in equinox afternoon. Discussions indicate that the variations of neutral atmosphere and hmF2 are responsible for the seasonal and local time dependences of the linear increase rate of NmF2 with F10.7 at midlatitudes, and the seasonal variation of neutral atmosphere is the primary reason for the seasonal dependence of the variation trend of NmF2 with F10.7, while dynamics processes are the more important factors controlling the linear increase rate and the variation trend of NmF2 with F10.7 at low latitudes. Furthermore, dynamics processes are important for the saturation effect, and the fountain effect is related to the strongest saturation effect appearing at the EIA crests.

Evolution of Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature over Different Climatic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajendran, V.; C T, D.; Chakravorty, A.; AghaKouchak, A.

2016-12-01

The increase in drought, flood, diseases, crop failure etc. in the recent past has created an alarm amongst the researchers. One of the main reasons behind the intensification of these environmental hazards is the recent revelation of climate change, which is generally attributed to the human induced global warming, represented by an increase in global mean temperature. However, in order to formulate policies to mitigate and prevent the threats due to global warming, its key driving factors should be analysed at high spatial and temporal resolution. Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) is one of the indicators of global warming. The study of the evolution of the DTR is crucial, since it affects agriculture, health, ecosystems, transport, etc. Recent studies reveal that diurnal asymmetry has decreased globally, whereas a few regional studies report a contradictory pattern and attributed them to localized feedback processes. However, an evident conclusion cannot be made using the linear trend approaches employed in the past studies and the evolution of diurnal asymmetry should be investigated using non-linear trend approach for better perception. Hence, the regional evolution of DTR trend has been analysed using the spatially-temporally Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method over India and observed a positive trend in over-all mean of DTR, while its rate of increase has declined in the recent decades. Further, the grids showing negative trend in DTR is observed in arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands and positive trend over the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the North-East. This transition predominantly began from the west coast and is stretched with an increase in magnitude. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon seasons, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than that of the maximum temperature. These analyses suggest that the DTR changes are influenced by both, local and global factors working in tandem, since a warmed up ocean produces contradictory DTR trends in different climatic zones. It can be inferred from this study that the impact of a global change in a region will depend on the regional climate.

Casas Muertas and Oficina No. 1: internal migrations and malaria trends in Venezuela 1905-1945.

PubMed

Chaves, Luis Fernando

2007-06-01

To compare internal migration and temperature as factors behind the decreasing trend in malaria deaths observed in Venezuela from 1905 to 1945, linear autoregressive models are fitted to a historical dataset. The model that only incorporates internal migration is the one with the best fit. The decreasing trend in malaria deaths in Venezuela, from 1905 to 1945, is not explained by a trend in mean annual temperature, but it is associated with an increase in the proportion of population in the Capital District, during a time period when the area was the principal attractor of migrations within the country.

Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Bruehl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; deGrandpre, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.;

Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Weatherhead, E. C.; Stevermer, A.; Austin, J.; Brühl, C.; Fleming, E. L.; de Grandpré, J.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I.; Pitari, G.; Portmann, R. W.; Rognerud, B.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Smyshlyaev, S.; Nagashima, T.; Velders, G. J. M.; Weisenstein, D. K.; Xia, J.

2006-01-01

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Birth characteristics, maternal reproductive history, and the risk of infant leukemia: a report from the Children's Oncology Group.

PubMed

Spector, Logan G; Davies, Stella M; Robison, Leslie L; Hilden, Joanne M; Roesler, Michelle; Ross, Julie A

2007-01-01

Leukemias with MLL gene rearrangements predominate in infants (<1 year of age), but not in older children, and may have a distinct etiology. High birth weight, higher birth order, and prior fetal loss have, with varying consistency, been associated with infant leukemia, but no studies have reported results with respect to MLL status. Here, we report for the first time such an analysis. During 1999 to 2003, mothers of 240 incident cases (113 MLL(+), 80 MLL(-), and 47 indeterminate) and 255 random digit dialed controls completed a telephone interview. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for quartile of birth weight, birth order, gestational age, maternal age at delivery, prior fetal loss, pre-pregnancy body mass index, and weight gain during pregnancy were obtained using unconditional logistic regression; P for linear trend was obtained by modeling continuous variables. There was a borderline significant linear trend of increasing birth weight with MLL(+) (P = 0.06), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.93), infant leukemia. Increasing birth order showed a significant inverse linear trend, independent of birth weight, with MLL(+) (P = 0.01), but not MLL(-) (P = 0.18), infant leukemia. Other variables of interest were not notably associated with infant leukemia regardless of MLL status. This investigation further supports the contention that molecularly defined subtypes of infant leukemia have separate etiologies.

Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009.

PubMed

Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

2015-04-01

We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingmueller, Klaus; Pozzer, Andrea; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. By relating the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface wind, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle, we identify regions where these attributes are significantly correlated to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. The Fertile Crescent turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD trend over these countries. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trend and interannual variability can be attributed to the above mentioned dust cycle parameters, confirming that the AOD increase is predominantly driven by dust. In particular, the positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. This suggests that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change. Based on simulations using the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), we interpret the correlations identified in the observational data in terms of causal relationships.

Recent Acceleration of the Terrestrial Hydrologic Cycle in the U.S. Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Wu, Chuanhao

2018-03-01

Most hydroclimatic trend studies considered only a subset of water budget variables; hence, the trend consistency and a holistic assessment of hydrologic changes across the entire water cycle cannot be evaluated. Here we use a unique 31 year (1983-2013) observed data set in Illinois (a representative region of the U.S. Midwest), including temperature (T), precipitation (P), evaporation (E), streamflow (R), soil moisture, and groundwater level (GWL), to estimate the trends and their sensitivity to different data periods and lengths. Both the Mann-Kendall trend test and the least squares linear method identify trends in close agreement. Despite no clear trends during 1983-2013, increasing trends are found in P (8.73-9.05 mm/year), E (6.87-7.47 mm/year), and R (1.57-3.54 mm/year) during 1992-2013, concurrently with a pronounced warming trend of 0.029-0.037 °C/year. However, terrestrial water storageis decreased by -2.0 mm/year (mainly due to declining GWL), suggesting that the increased R is caused by increased surface runoff rather than baseflow. Monthly analyses identify warming trends for all months except winter. In summer, P (E) exhibits an increasing (decreasing) trend, leading to increasing R, soil moisture, GWL, and terrestrial water storage. Most trends estimated for different subperiods are found to be sensitive to data lengths and periods. Overall, this study provides an internally consistent observed evidence on the intensification of the hydrologic cycle in response to recent climate warming in U.S. Midwest, in agreement with and well supported by several recent studies consistently reporting the increased P, R and E over the Midwest and Mississippi River basin.

Spectral variability of plagioclase-mafic mixtures (3): Quantitative analysis applying the MGM algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serventi, Giovanna; Carli, Cristian; Sgavetti, Maria

2015-07-01

Among the techniques to detect planet's mineralogical composition remote sensing, visible and near-infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectroscopy is a powerful tool, because crystal field absorption bands are related to particular transitional metals in well-defined crystal structures, e.g., Fe2+ in M1 and M2 sites of olivine (OL) or pyroxene (PX). Although OL, PX and their mixtures have been widely studied, plagioclase (PL), considered a spectroscopically transparent mineral, has been poorly analyzed. In this work we quantitatively investigate the influence of plagioclase absorption band on the absorption bands of Fe, Mg minerals using the Modified Gaussian Model - MGM (Sunshine, J.M. et al. [1990]. J. Geophys. Res. 95, 6955-6966). We consider three plagioclase compositions of varying FeO wt.% contents and five mafic end-members (1) 56% orthopyroxene and 44% clinopyroxene, (2) 28% olivine and 72% orthopyroxene, (3) 30% orthopyroxene and 70% olivine, (4) 100% olivine and (5) 100% orthopyroxene, at two different particle sizes. The spectral parameters considered here are: band depth, band center, band width, c0 (the continuum intercept) and c1 (the continuum offset). In particular, we show the variation of the plagioclase and composite (plagioclase-olivine) band spectral parameters versus the volumetric iron content related to the plagioclase abundance in mixtures. Generally, increasing the vol. FeO% due to the PL: (1) 1250 nm band deepens with linear trend in mixtures with pyroxenes, while it decreases in mixtures with olivine, with trend shifting from parabolic to linear increasing the olivine content in end-member; (2) 1250 nm band center moves towards longer wavelengths with linear trend in pyroxene-rich mixtures and parabolic trend in olivine-rich mixtures; and (3) 1250 nm band clearly widens with linear trend in olivine-free mixtures, while the widening is only slight in olivine-rich mixtures. We also outline how spectral parameters can be ambiguous leading to an incorrect mineralogical interpretation. Furthermore, we show the presence of an asymmetry of the plagioclase band towards the IR region, resolvable adding a Gaussian in the 1600-1800 nm spectral region.

Consumption of added sugars is decreasing in the United States.

PubMed

Welsh, Jean A; Sharma, Andrea J; Grellinger, Lisa; Vos, Miriam B

2011-09-01

The consumption of added sugars (caloric sweeteners) has been linked to obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Little is known about recent consumption trends in the United States or how intakes compare with current guidelines. We examined trends in intakes of added sugars in the United States over the past decade. A cross-sectional study of US residents ≥2 y of age (n = 42,316) was conducted by using dietary data from NHANES 1999-2008 (five 2-y cycles) and data for added-sugar contents from the MyPyramid Equivalents Database. Mean intakes of added sugars (grams and percentage of total energy intake) were weighted to obtain national estimates over time across age, sex, and race-ethnic groups. Linear trends were tested by using Wald's F tests. Between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, the absolute intake of added sugars decreased from a mean (95% CI) of 100.1 g/d (92.8, 107.3 g/d) to 76.7 g/d (71.6, 81.9 g/d); two-thirds of this decrease, from 37.4 g/d (32.6, 42.1 g/d) to 22.8 g/d (18.4, 27.3 g/d), resulted from decreased soda consumption (P-linear trend <0.001 for both). Energy drinks were the only source of added sugars to increase over the study period (P-linear trend = 0.003), although the peak consumption reached only 0.15 g/d (0.08, 0.22 g/d). The percentage of total energy from added sugars also decreased from 18.1% (16.9%, 19.3%) to 14.6% (13.7%, 15.5%) (P-linear trend <0.001). Although the consumption of added sugars in the United States decreased between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, primarily because of a reduction in soda consumption, mean intakes continue to exceed recommended limits.

Consumption of added sugars is decreasing in the United States1234

PubMed Central

Sharma, Andrea J; Grellinger, Lisa; Vos, Miriam B

2011-01-01

Background: The consumption of added sugars (caloric sweeteners) has been linked to obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Little is known about recent consumption trends in the United States or how intakes compare with current guidelines. Objective: We examined trends in intakes of added sugars in the United States over the past decade. Design: A cross-sectional study of US residents ≥2 y of age (n = 42,316) was conducted by using dietary data from NHANES 1999–2008 (five 2-y cycles) and data for added-sugar contents from the MyPyramid Equivalents Database. Mean intakes of added sugars (grams and percentage of total energy intake) were weighted to obtain national estimates over time across age, sex, and race-ethnic groups. Linear trends were tested by using Wald's F tests. Results: Between 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, the absolute intake of added sugars decreased from a mean (95% CI) of 100.1 g/d (92.8, 107.3 g/d) to 76.7 g/d (71.6, 81.9 g/d); two-thirds of this decrease, from 37.4 g/d (32.6, 42.1 g/d) to 22.8 g/d (18.4, 27.3 g/d), resulted from decreased soda consumption (P-linear trend <0.001 for both). Energy drinks were the only source of added sugars to increase over the study period (P-linear trend = 0.003), although the peak consumption reached only 0.15 g/d (0.08, 0.22 g/d). The percentage of total energy from added sugars also decreased from 18.1% (16.9%, 19.3%) to 14.6% (13.7%, 15.5%) (P-linear trend <0.001). Conclusion: Although the consumption of added sugars in the United States decreased between 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, primarily because of a reduction in soda consumption, mean intakes continue to exceed recommended limits. PMID:21753067

Secular changes of the M2 tide in the Gulf of Maine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

2005-01-01

Analyses of long time series of hourly tide-gauge data at four stations in the Gulf of Maine reveal that the amplitude of the M2 tide underwent a nearly linear secular increase throughout most of the twentieth century. In the early 1980s, however, the amplitude of M2 abruptly dropped. Sea level changes alone appear inadequate to explain either the long-term trend or the recent trend discontinuity. Tidal models that account for Holocene sea level rise do predict an amplification of M2, but much smaller than the currently observed trends. Nor do recent annual mean sea levels correlate with the recent trend discontinuity. Some unknown fraction of the open Atlantic may be similarly affected, since the M2 discontinuity, but not the long-term secular increase in the tide, is evident also at Halifax.

Stratospheric ozone profile and total ozone trends derived from the SAGE I and SAGE II data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccormick, M. P.; Veiga, Robert E.; Chu, William P.

1992-01-01

Global trends in both stratospheric column ozone and as a function of altitude are derived on the basis of SAGE I/II ozone data from the period 1979-1991. A statistical model containing quasi-biennial, seasonal, and semiannual oscillations, a linear component, and a first-order autoregressive noise process was fit to the time series of SAGE I/II monthly zonal mean data. The linear trend in column ozone above 17-km altitude, averaged between 65 deg S and 65 deg N, is -0.30 +/-0.19 percent/yr, or -3.6 percent over the time period February 1979 through April 1991. The data show that the column trend above 17 km is nearly zero in the tropics and increases towards the high latitudes with values of -0.6 percent/yr at 60 deg S and -0.35 percent/yr at 60 deg N. Both these results are in agreement with the recent TOMS results. The profile trend analyses show that the column ozone losses are occurring below 25 km, with most of the loss coming from the region between 17 and 20 km. Negative trend values on the order of -2 percent/yr are found at 17 km in midlatitudes.

Health Disparities Grants Funded by National Institute on Aging: Trends Between 2000 and 2010

PubMed Central

Kim, Giyeon; DeCoster, Jamie; Huang, Chao-Hui; Parmelee, Patricia

2012-01-01

Purpose of the Study: The present study examined the characteristics of health disparities grants funded by National Institute on Aging (NIA) from 2000 to 2010. Objectives were (a) to examine longitudinal trends in health disparities–related grants funded by NIA and (b) to identify moderators of these trends. Design and Methods: Our primary data source was the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio Online Reporting Tools Expenditures and Results (RePORTER) system. The RePORTER data were merged with data from the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education. General linear models were used to examine the longitudinal trends and how these trends were associated with type of grant and institutional characteristics. Results: NIA funded 825 grants on health disparities between 2000 and 2010, expending approximately 330 million dollars. There was an overall linear increase over time in both the total number of grants and amount of funding, with an outlying spike during 2009. These trends were significantly influenced by several moderators including funding mechanism and type of institution. Implications: The findings highlight NIA’s current efforts to fund health disparities grants to reduce disparities among older adults. Gerontology researchers may find this information very useful for their future grant submissions. PMID:22454392

Comprehensive evaluation of long-term trends in occupational exposure: Part 1. Description of the database

PubMed Central

Symanski, E.; Kupper, L. L.; Rappaport, S. M.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a comprehensive evaluation of long term changes in occupational exposure among a broad cross section of industries worldwide. METHODS: A review of the scientific literature identified studies that reported historical changes in exposure. About 700 sets of data from 119 published and several unpublished sources were compiled. Data were published over a 30 year period in 25 journals that spanned a range of disciplines. For each data set, the average exposure level was compiled for each period and details on the contaminant, the industry and location, changes in the threshold limit value (TLV), as well as the type of sampling method were recorded. Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to identify monotonic changes in exposure over time and simple linear regression analyses were used to characterise trends in exposure. RESULTS: About 78% of the natural log transformed data showed linear trends towards lower exposure levels whereas 22% indicated increasing trends. (The Spearman rank correlation analyses produced a similar breakdown between exposures monotonically increasing or decreasing over time.) Although the rates of reduction for the data showing downward trends ranged from -1% to -62% per year, most exposures declined at rates between -4% and -14% per year (the interquartile range), with a median value of -8% per year. Exposures seemed to increase at rates that were slightly lower than those of exposures which have declined over time. Data sets that showed downward (versus upward) trends were influenced by several factors including type and carcinogenicity of the contaminant, type of monitoring, historical changes in the threshold limit values (TLVs), and period of sampling. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports the notion that occupational exposures are generally lower today than they were years or decades ago. However, such trends seem to have been affected by factors related to the contaminant, as well as to the period and type of sampling.   PMID:9764107

Effects of rainfall intensity and slope gradient on runoff and sediment yield characteristics of bare loess soil.

PubMed

Wu, Lei; Peng, Mengling; Qiao, Shanshan; Ma, Xiao-Yi

2018-02-01

Soil erosion is a universal phenomenon on the Loess Plateau but it exhibits complex and typical mechanism which makes it difficult to understand soil loss laws on slopes. We design artificial simulated rainfall experiments including six rainfall intensities (45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120 mm/h) and five slopes (5°, 10°, 15°, 20°, 25°) to reveal the fundamental changing trends of runoff and sediment yield on bare loess soil. Here, we show that the runoff yield within the initial 15 min increased rapidly and its trend gradually became stable. Trends of sediment yield under different rainfall intensities are various. The linear correlation between runoff and rainfall intensity is obvious for different slopes, but the correlations between sediment yield and rainfall intensity are weak. Runoff and sediment yield on the slope surface both presents an increasing trend when the rainfall intensity increases from 45 mm/h to 120 mm/h, but the increasing trend of runoff yield is higher than that of sediment yield. The sediment yield also has an overall increasing trend when the slope changes from 5° to 25°, but the trend of runoff yield is not obvious. Our results may provide data support and underlying insights needed to guide the management of soil conservation planning on the Loess Plateau.

Detection time for global and regional sea level trends and accelerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordà, G.

2014-10-01

Many studies analyze trends on sea level data with the underlying purpose of finding indications of a long-term change that could be interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic climate change. The identification of a long-term trend is a signal-to-noise problem where the natural variability (the "noise") can mask the long-term trend (the "signal"). The signal-to-noise ratio depends on the magnitude of the long-term trend, on the magnitude of the natural variability, and on the length of the record, as the climate noise is larger when averaged over short time scales and becomes smaller over longer averaging periods. In this paper, we evaluate the time required to detect centennial sea level linear trends and accelerations at global and regional scales. Using model results and tide gauge observations, we find that the averaged detection time for a centennial linear trend is 87.9, 76.0, 59.3, 40.3, and 25.2 years for trends of 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 mm/yr, respectively. However, in regions with large decadal variations like the Gulf Stream or the Circumpolar current, these values can increase up to a 50%. The spatial pattern of the detection time for sea level accelerations is almost identical. The main difference is that the length of the records has to be about 40-60 years longer to detect an acceleration than to detect a linear trend leading to an equivalent change after 100 years. Finally, we have used a new sea level reconstruction, which provides a more accurate representation of interannual variability for the last century in order to estimate the detection time for global mean sea level trends and accelerations. Our results suggest that the signature of natural variability in a 30 year global mean sea level record would be less than 1 mm/yr. Therefore, at least 2.2 mm/yr of the recent sea level trend estimated by altimetry cannot be attributed to natural multidecadal variability. This article was corrected on 19 NOV 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

The developing human brain: age-related changes in cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar anatomy.

PubMed

Sussman, Dafna; Leung, Rachel C; Chakravarty, M Mallar; Lerch, Jason P; Taylor, Margot J

2016-04-01

This study is the first to characterize normal development and sex differences across neuroanatomical structures in cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar brain regions in a single large cohort. One hundred and ninety-two magnetic resonance images were examined from 96 typically developing females and 96 age-matched typically developing males from 4 to 18 years of age. Image segmentation of the cortex was conducted with CIVET, while that of the cerebellum, hippocampi, thalamus, and basal ganglia were conducted using the MAGeT algorithm. Cortical thickness analysis revealed that most cortical regions decrease linearly, while surface area increases linearly with age. Volume relative to total cerebrum followed a quadratic trend with age, with only the left supramarginal gyrus showing sexual dimorphism. Hippocampal relative volume increased linearly, while the thalamus, caudate, and putamen decreased linearly, and the cerebellum did not change with age. The relative volumes of several subcortical subregions followed inverted U-shaped trends that peaked at ~12 years of age. Many subcortical structures were found to be larger in females than in males, independently of age, while others showed a sex-by-age interaction. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of cortical, subcortical, and cerebellar growth patterns during normal development, and draws attention to the role of sex on neuroanatomical maturation throughout childhood and adolescence.

Gender Trends in Academic Radiology Publication in the United States Revisited.

PubMed

O'Connor, Erin E; Chen, Pauline; Weston, Brian; Anderson, Redmond; Zeffiro, Timothy; Ahmed, Awad; Zeffiro, Thomas A

2018-02-12

Although substantial increases in publications by female academic radiologists have appeared over the last several decades, it is possible that the rate of increase is decreasing. We examined temporal trends in gender composition for full-time radiology faculty, radiology residents, and medical students over a 46-year period. We examined authorship gender trends to determine if the increases in female authorship seen since 1970 have been sustained in recent years and whether female radiologists continue to publish in proportion to their numbers in academic departments. Original articles for selected years in Radiology and in the American Journal of Roentgenology between 1970 and 2016 were examined to determine the gender of first, corresponding, and last authors. Generalized linear models evaluated (1) changes in proportions of female authorship over time and (2) associations between proportions of female authorship and female radiology faculty representation. While linear increases in first, corresponding, and senior authorships were observed for female radiologists from 1970 to 2000, the rate of increase in female first and corresponding authorships then changed, with the slope of the first author relationship decreasing from 0.81 to 0.34, corresponding to 47% fewer female first authors added per year. In contrast, the proportion of female last authorship continued to increase at the same rate. The proportion of female first authorship was linearly related to the proportion of female radiology faculty from 1970 to 2016. Annual increases in first author academic productivity of female radiologists have lessened in the past 16 years, possibly related to reductions in the growth of female radiology faculty and trainees. As mixed, compared to homogeneous gender, authorship teams are associated with more citations, efforts to encourage more women to pursue careers in academic radiology could benefit the radiology research community. Copyright © 2018 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements over the Internet, in newspapers/magazines, and at retail stores among U.S. middle and high school students, 2000-2012.

PubMed

Agaku, Israel T; King, Brian A; Dube, Shanta R

2014-01-01

Most tobacco use begins during youth. Thus, this study assessed the prevalence, trends, and correlates of pro-tobacco advertising among United States students in grades 6-12 during 2000-2012. Data from the 2000-2012 National Youth Tobacco Survey were analyzed to assess self-reported exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements through three media: over the Internet, in newspapers/magazines, and at retail stores. Trends during 2000-2012 were assessed in a binary logistic regression model (P<0.05). Among all middle and high school students, the overall prevalence of exposure to Internet pro-tobacco advertisements increased from 22.3% to 43.0% during 2000-2012 (P<0.001 for linear trend). During the same period, declines were observed in the overall prevalence of exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements in newspapers/magazines (65.0% to 36.9%) and at retail stores (87.8% to 76.2%) (P<0.001 for all linear trends). Exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements over the Internet increased significantly during 2000-2012 among United States middle and high school students, while a decline in exposure to advertisements in newspapers or magazines, and at retail stores occurred during the same period. However, over two-thirds of students still reported retail store exposure to pro-tobacco advertisements in 2012. Enhanced and sustained efforts would be beneficial to reduce even more exposure to all forms of pro-tobacco advertisements among youths. © 2013.

Increased trend in extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use by adults in the United States since 2007.

PubMed

Gerke, Alicia K; Tang, Fan; Cavanaugh, Joseph E; Doerschug, Kevin C; Polgreen, Philip M

2015-11-18

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has been increasingly studied as a life support modality, but it is unclear if its use has changed over time. Recent publication shows no significant trend in use of ECMO over time; however, this report does not include more recent data. We performed trend analysis to determine if and when the use of ECMO changed in the past decade. We identified hospitalizations (2000-2011) in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample during which ECMO was recorded. We used a segmented linear regression model to determine trend and to identify a temporal change point when rate of ECMO use increased. ECMO use gradually grew until 2007, at which time there was a dramatic increase in the rate (p = 0.0003). There was no difference in mortality after 2007 (p = 0.3374), but there was longer length of stay (p = 0.0001) and smaller percentage of women (p = 0.005). There has been a marked increase in ECMO use since 2007. As ECMO use becomes more common, further study regarding indications, cost-effectiveness, and outcomes is warranted to guide optimal use.

Large decline in injecting drug use in Amsterdam, 1986-1998: explanatory mechanisms and determinants of injecting transitions.

PubMed

van Ameijden, E J; Coutinho, R A

2001-05-01

To study community wide trends in injecting prevalence and trends in injecting transitions, and determinants. Open cohort study with follow up every four months (Amsterdam Cohort Study). Generalised estimating equations were used for statistical analysis. Amsterdam has adopted a harm reduction approach as drug policy. 996 drug users who were recruited from 1986 to 1998, mainly at methadone programmes, who paid 13620 cohort visits. The prevalence of injecting decreased exponentially (66% to 36% in four to six monthly periods). Selective mortality and migration could maximally explain 33% of this decline. Instead, injecting initiation linearly decreased (4.1% to 0.7% per visit), cessation exponentially increased (10.0% to 17.1%), and relapse linearly decreased (21.3% to 11.8%). Non-injecting cocaine use (mainly pre-cooked, comparable to crack) and heroin use strongly increased. Trends were not attributable to changes in the study sample. Harm reduction, including large scale needle exchange programmes, does not lead to an increase in injecting drug use. The injecting decline seems mainly attributable to ecological factors (for example, drug culture and market). Prevention of injecting is possible and peer-based interventions may be effective. The consequences of the recent upsurge in crack use requires further study.

Trends in Utilization of Vocal Fold Injection Procedures.

PubMed

Rosow, David E

2015-11-01

Office-based vocal fold injections have become increasingly popular over the past 15 years. Examination of trends in procedure coding for vocal fold injections in the United States from 2000 to 2012 was undertaken to see if they reflect this shift. The US Part B Medicare claims database was queried from 2000 through 2012 for multiple Current Procedural Terminology codes. Over the period studied, the number of nonoperative laryngoscopic injections (31513, 31570) and operative medialization laryngoplasties (31588) remained constant. Operative vocal fold injection (31571) demonstrated marked linear growth over the 12-year study period, from 744 procedures in 2000 to 4788 in 2012-an increase >640%. The dramatic increased incidence in the use of code 31571 reflects an increasing share of vocal fold injections being performed in the operating room and not in an office setting, running counter to the prevailing trend toward awake, office-based injection procedures. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2015.

Language and country preponderance trends in MEDLINE and its causes.

PubMed

Loria, Alvar; Arroyo, Pedro

2005-07-01

The authors characterized the output of MEDLINE papers by language and country of publication during a thirty-four-year time period. We classified MEDLINE's journal articles by country of publication (Anglos/Non-Anglos) and language (English/Non-English) for the years 1966 and from 1970 to 2000 at five-year intervals. Eight English-speaking countries were considered Anglos. Linear regression analysis of number of papers versus time was performed. The global number of papers increased linearly at a rate of 8,142 papers per year. Anglo and English papers also increased linearly (6,740 and 9,199, respectively). Journals of Non-Anglo countries accounted for 25% of the English language increase (2,438 per year). Only Non-English papers decreased at a rate of 1,056 fewer papers per year. These trends have led to overwhelming shares of English and Anglo papers in MEDLINE. In 2000, 68% of all papers were published in the 8 Anglo countries and 90% were written in English. The Anglo and English preponderances appear to be a consequence of at least two phenomena: (1) editorial policy changes in MEDLINE and in some journals from Non-Anglo countries and (2) factors affecting Non-Anglo researchers in the third world (publication constraints, migration, and undersupport). These are tentative conclusions that need confirmation.

Rising air and stream-water temperatures in Chesapeake Bay region, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Jastram, John D.

2015-01-01

Monthly mean air temperature (AT) at 85 sites and instantaneous stream-water temperature (WT) at 129 sites for 1960–2010 are examined for the mid-Atlantic region, USA. Temperature anomalies for two periods, 1961–1985 and 1985–2010, relative to the climate normal period of 1971–2000, indicate that the latter period was statistically significantly warmer than the former for both mean AT and WT. Statistically significant temporal trends across the region of 0.023 °C per year for AT and 0.028 °C per year for WT are detected using simple linear regression. Sensitivity analyses show that the irregularly sampled WT data are appropriate for trend analyses, resulting in conservative estimates of trend magnitude. Relations between 190 landscape factors and significant trends in AT-WT relations are examined using principal components analysis. Measures of major dams and deciduous forest are correlated with WT increasing slower than AT, whereas agriculture in the absence of major dams is correlated with WT increasing faster than AT. Increasing WT trends are detected despite increasing trends in streamflow in the northern part of the study area. Continued warming of contributing streams to Chesapeake Bay likely will result in shifts in distributions of aquatic biota and contribute to worsened eutrophic conditions in the bay and its estuaries.

Incidence and mortality of lung cancer: global trends and association with socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Wong, Martin C S; Lao, Xiang Qian; Ho, Kin-Fai; Goggins, William B; Tse, Shelly L A

2017-10-30

We examined the correlation between lung cancer incidence/mortality and country-specific socioeconomic development, and evaluated its most recent global trends. We retrieved its age-standardized incidence rates from the GLOBOCAN database, and temporal patterns were assessed from global databases. We employed simple linear regression analysis to evaluate their correlations with Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The average annual percent changes (AAPC) of the trends were evaluated from join-point regression analysis. Country-specific HDI was strongly correlated with age-standardized incidence (r = 0.70) and mortality (r = 0.67), and to a lesser extent GDP (r = 0.24 to 0.55). Among men, 22 and 30 (out of 38 and 36) countries showed declining incidence and mortality trends, respectively; whilst among women, 19 and 16 countries showed increasing incidence and mortality trends, respectively. Among men, the AAPCs ranged from -2.8 to -0.6 (incidence) and -3.6 to -1.1 (mortality) in countries with declining trend, whereas among women the AAPC range was 0.4 to 8.9 (incidence) and 1 to 4.4 (mortality) in countries with increasing trend. Among women, Brazil, Spain and Cyprus had the greatest incidence increase, and all countries in Western, Southern and Eastern Europe reported increasing mortality. These findings highlighted the need for targeted preventive measures.

Mechanical Performance Test of Rubber-Powder Modified Concrete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yan Cong; Gao, Ling Ling

2018-06-01

A number of rubber cement concrete specimens that rubber powder dosage different were obtained using same cement, water and fine aggregates, by adjusting the dosage of rubber powder. Then it was used to research the influence of rubber powder dosage on performance of cement concrete by measuring its liquidity, strength and toughness. The results show that: when water-cement ratio was equal and rubber powder replacing the same volume sand, the fluidity of cement concrete almost linear increased with rubber powder dosage increasing. With dosage of rubber powder increasing, compressive strength and flexural strength reduced, but toughness linear growth trend when dosage of rubber powder less 30%.

Inconsistencies of interannual variability and trends in long-term satellite leaf area index products.

PubMed

Jiang, Chongya; Ryu, Youngryel; Fang, Hongliang; Myneni, Ranga; Claverie, Martin; Zhu, Zaichun

2017-10-01

Understanding the long-term performance of global satellite leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global change research. However, few effort has been devoted to evaluating the long-term time-series consistencies of LAI products. This study compared four long-term LAI products (GLASS, GLOBMAP, LAI3g, and TCDR) in terms of trends, interannual variabilities, and uncertainty variations from 1982 through 2011. This study also used four ancillary LAI products (GEOV1, MERIS, MODIS C5, and MODIS C6) from 2003 through 2011 to help clarify the performances of the four long-term LAI products. In general, there were marked discrepancies between the four long-term LAI products. During the pre-MODIS period (1982-1999), both linear trends and interannual variabilities of global mean LAI followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. The GLASS linear trend and interannual variability were almost 4.5 times those of GLOBMAP. During the overlap period (2003-2011), GLASS and GLOBMAP exhibited a decreasing trend, TCDR no trend, and LAI3g an increasing trend. GEOV1, MERIS, and MODIS C6 also exhibited an increasing trend, but to a much smaller extent than that from LAI3g. During both periods, the R 2 of detrended anomalies between the four long-term LAI products was smaller than 0.4 for most regions. Interannual variabilities of the four long-term LAI products were considerably different over the two periods, and the differences followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. Uncertainty variations quantified by a collocation error model followed the same order. Our results indicate that the four long-term LAI products were neither intraconsistent over time nor interconsistent with each other. These inconsistencies may be due to NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation. Caution should be used in the interpretation of global changes derived from the four long-term LAI products. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trends in the treatment of chronic kidney disease-associated anaemia in a cohort of haemodialysis patients: the Irish experience.

PubMed

Gardiner, Roisin; Roshan, Davood; Brennan, Ann; Connolly, Denise; Murray, Susan; Reddan, Donal

2018-04-27

Anaemia among haemodialysis patients is treated with iron and erythropoietin-stimulating agents (ESAs). ESAs reduce requirements for blood transfusions but are also expensive and overzealous use may be associated with adverse outcomes. Recent international trends have been characterised by reduced ESA doses and a greater reliance on intravenous (IV) iron. We determined trends in prescribing patterns of ESAs and IV iron for the treatment of anaemia in two representative Irish dialysis centres and correlated with current guidelines and international trends. Patient data was accessed from the Kidney Disease Clinical Patient Management System (KDCPMS) for the period 2012 to 2014. We generated reports on ESA and iron doses, lab data (haemoglobin (Hb), transferrin saturation (TSAT) and ferritin) and patient population characteristics. We mapped the trends in ESA, iron dosing and lab parameters achieved. A linear mixed model determined the significance of these trends over time. ESA dosing became lower in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2014. Dosing of iron increased throughout but a large increase was seen in the third and fourth quarters of 2014. Ferritin levels decreased and TSAT and haemoglobin levels increased. Changes in iron dosing were significant with p value of < 0.05. Our findings are consistent with recent global trends toward increasing iron use. Such trends may have economic implications given the high cost of ESAs and the relative affordability of iron. In addition, the potential harm of excessive iron dosing may need to be considered.

A Methodological Framework for Model Selection in Interrupted Time Series Studies.

PubMed

Lopez Bernal, J; Soumerai, S; Gasparrini, A

2018-06-06

Interrupted time series is a powerful and increasingly popular design for evaluating public health and health service interventions. The design involves analysing trends in the outcome of interest and estimating the change in trend following an intervention relative to the counterfactual (the expected ongoing trend if the intervention had not occurred). There are two key components to modelling this effect: first, defining the counterfactual; second, defining the type of effect that the intervention is expected to have on the outcome, known as the impact model. The counterfactual is defined by extrapolating the underlying trends observed before the intervention to the post-intervention period. In doing this, authors must consider the pre-intervention period that will be included, any time varying confounders, whether trends may vary within different subgroups of the population and whether trends are linear or non-linear. Defining the impact model involves specifying the parameters that model the intervention, including for instance whether to allow for an abrupt level change or a gradual slope change, whether to allow for a lag before any effect on the outcome, whether to allow a transition period during which the intervention is being implemented and whether a ceiling or floor effect might be expected. Inappropriate model specification can bias the results of an interrupted time series analysis and using a model that is not closely tailored to the intervention or testing multiple models increases the risk of false positives being detected. It is important that authors use substantive knowledge to customise their interrupted time series model a priori to the intervention and outcome under study. Where there is uncertainty in model specification, authors should consider using separate data sources to define the intervention, running limited sensitivity analyses or undertaking initial exploratory studies. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme" over time.

Relationship between the Arctic oscillation and surface air temperature in multi-decadal time-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Tamura, Mina

2016-09-01

In this study, a simple energy balance model (EBM) was integrated in time, considering a hypothetical long-term variability in ice-albedo feedback mimicking the observed multi-decadal temperature variability. A natural variability was superimposed on a linear warming trend due to the increasing radiative forcing of CO2. The result demonstrates that the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend can offset with each other to show the warming hiatus for some period. It is also stressed that the rapid warming during 1970-2000 can be explained by the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend at least within the simple model. The key process of the fluctuating planetary albedo in multi-decadal time scale is investigated using the JRA-55 reanalysis data. It is found that the planetary albedo increased for 1958-1970, decreased for 1970-2000, and increased for 2000-2012, as expected by the simple EBM experiments. The multi-decadal variability in the planetary albedo is compared with the time series of the AO mode and Barents Sea mode of surface air temperature. It is shown that the recent AO negative pattern showing warm Arctic and cold mid-latitudes is in good agreement with planetary albedo change indicating negative anomaly in high latitudes and positive anomaly in mid-latitudes. Moreover, the Barents Sea mode with the warm Barents Sea and cold mid-latitudes shows long-term variability similar to planetary albedo change. Although further studies are needed, the natural variabilities of both the AO mode and Barents Sea mode indicate some possible link to the planetary albedo as suggested by the simple EBM to cause the warming hiatus in recent years.

Environmental factors affecting benthic macrofauna along a gradient of intermediate sandy beaches in northern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodil, I. F.; Lastra, M.

2004-09-01

Ten sandy beaches along the north coast of Spain were studied during September 1999 to analyse the number of species, abundance and biomass of macroinfauna along a gradient of intermediate beach types and exposure range. Faunal samples were collected with metallic cylinders (25 cm diameter, 15 cm depth) at 10 equally spaced shore levels along six replicated transects separated randomly and extending from above the drift line to the low tide swash zone. Exposure rate, Dean's parameter ( Ω), beach state index (BSI) and relative tidal range (RTR) were estimated at each beach. Length and width of the beach, intertidal slope, sorting and median grain size and also swash amplitude and wave characteristics were measured. The number of species was between 10 and 29. Macrofaunal abundances ranged between 4962 and 71,228 ind. linear m -1 and between 31 and 329 ind. m -2, while biomass (ash free dry weight) ranged between 0.027 and 0.278 g m -2 and between 3 and 61 g linear m -1. The results show some significant trends: the number of species is the biotic variable most affected by physical and morphodynamic factors, increasing linearly with relative tidal range and decreasing with increasing average grain size. The same trend was observed from exposed to very exposed beaches and the biomass decreased exponentially with increasing average grain size. These trends agree with previous studies in different coasts in the world where coarse sands limit the benthic macrofauna. The morphodynamic parameters as Dean's parameter or Beach State Index did not show a predictive value. The results suggest that different characteristics of benthic macrofauna communities in intermediate beaches can be affected in different ways by the physical processes involved in beach morphodynamics.

Gender disparities in prosthodontics: authorship and leadership, 13 years of observation.

PubMed

Kongkiatkamon, Suchada; Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Knoernschild, Kent L; Campbell, Stephen D; Sukotjo, Cortino

2010-10-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender disparities in prosthodontics by reviewing the trend of female authorship in prosthodontic journals and exploring the role of female leadership in prosthodontic organizations and Advanced Education in Prosthodontic (AEP) programs. Three journals representing the prosthodontic specialty were selected to analyze the percentage of female dentist first and last (senior) authors for the years 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008. Article inclusion criteria were restricted to the first or last authors who held at least a DMD/DDS/BDS degree and were from U.S. institutions. Data on female leadership in prosthodontic organizations and advanced education programs were collected, and the trends were studied. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data. A linear regression analysis was performed to investigate the proportion of female authorship compared to male in the dental literature. A Fisher's Exact Test was performed to contrast differences of female first and last authorship in the selected journals between years 1995 and 2008. Overall, there was no statistically significant linear increase in the proportion of either first or last female authorship compared to male authorship over time. With respect to each journal, the linear regression analysis showed that the increase of first female authorship was statistically significant (p= 0.016) compared to male authorship only in the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. The percentage of female presidents of prosthodontic organizations has been very limited. A similar trend was also observed in AEP program director positions. Over the past 13 years, female dentists' participation in prosthodontics literature authorship has not increased significantly in the United States. Furthermore, female involvement in prosthodontics leadership has been limited over the past decades. © 2010 by The American College of Prosthodontists.

Quantifying Main Trends in Lysozyme Nucleation: The Effect of Precipitant Concentration and Impurities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, Michael W.; Judge, Russell A.; Pusey, Marc L.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Full factorial experiment design incorporating multi-linear regression analysis of the experimental data allows the main trends and effects to be quickly identified while using only a limited number of experiments. These techniques were used to identify the effect of precipitant concentration and the presence of an impurity, the physiological lysozyme dimer, on the nucleation rate and crystal dimensions of the tetragonal form of chicken egg white lysozyme. Increasing precipitant concentration was found to decrease crystal numbers, the magnitude of this effect also depending on the supersaturation. The presence of the dimer generally increased nucleation. The crystal axial ratio decreased with increasing precipitant concentration independent of impurity.

Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2012-12-01

Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

Cigarette sales in pharmacies in the USA (2005-2009).

PubMed

Seidenberg, Andrew B; Behm, Ilan; Rees, Vaughan W; Connolly, Gregory N

2012-09-01

Several US jurisdictions have adopted policies prohibiting pharmacies from selling tobacco products. Little is known about how pharmacies contribute to total cigarette sales. Pharmacy and total cigarette sales in the USA were tabulated from AC Nielsen and Euromonitor, respectively, for the years 2005-2009. Linear regression was used to characterise trends over time, with observed trends extrapolated to 2020. Between 2005 and 2009, pharmacy cigarette sales increased 22.72% (p=0.004), while total cigarette sales decreased 17.43% (p=0.015). In 2005, pharmacy cigarette sales represented 3.05% of total cigarette sales, increasing to 4.54% by 2009. Extrapolation of these findings resulted in estimated pharmacy cigarette sales of 14.59% of total US cigarette sales by 2020. Cigarette sales in American pharmacies have risen in recent years, while cigarette sales nationally have declined. If current trends continue, pharmacy cigarette market share will, by 2020, increase to more than four times the 2005 share.

Trends in social security benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer from 2006 to 2013 in Brazil.

PubMed

Bomfim, Rafael Aiello; Cascaes, Andreia Morales

2018-01-01

to analyze the trends in the concession of social security sick pay for oral and oropharyngeal cancer, from 2006 to 2013, in Brazil. time series study using data of workers insured by the Brazilian National Institute of Social Security (INSS); Prais-Winsten generalized linear regressions were used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC). social security benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer presented significant increase (APC=9.0%; 95%CI 1.4; 17.4); benefits for other parts of the mouth, nasopharynx, oropharynx, floor of mouth and palate have also shown significant increase; the areas of trade (5.5%) and manufacturing (5.2%) were the most prevalent activities; there was a high proportion of fields in blank in the information systems (average of 72.9%). trends in occupational benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer showed significant increase.

NDVI-Based analysis on the influence of human activities on vegetation variation on Hainan Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Hongxia; Dai, Shengpei; Xie, Zhenghui; Fang, Jihua

2018-02-01

Using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset, we analyzed the predicted NDVI values variation and the influence of human activities on vegetation on Hainan Island during 2001-2015. We investigated the roles of human activities in vegetation variation, particularly from 2002 when implemented the Grain-for-Greenprogram on Hainan Island. The trend analysis, linear regression model and residual analysis were used to analyze the data. The results of the study showed that (1) The predicted vegetation on Hainan Island showed an general upward trend with a linear growth rate of 0.0025/10y (p<0.05) over the past 15 years. The areas where vegetation increasedaccounted for 52.28%, while the areas where vegetation decreased accounted for 47.72%. (2) The residual NDVI values across the region significantly increased, with a growth rate of 0.023/10y.The vegetation increased across 35.95% of Hainan Island, while it decreased in 20.2% of the area as a result of human activities. (3) In general, human activities had played a positive role in the vegetation increase on Hainan Island, and the residual NDVI trend of this region showed positive outcomes for vegetation variation after implementing ecological engineering projects. However, it indicated a growing risk of vegetation degradation in the coastal region of Hainan Island as a result of rapid urbanization, land reclamation.

Fasting insulin levels and metabolic risk factors in type 2 diabetic patients at the first visit in Japan: a 10-year, nationwide, observational study (JDDM 28).

PubMed

Matsuba, Ikuro; Saito, Kazumi; Takai, Masahiko; Hirao, Koichi; Sone, Hirohito

2012-09-01

To investigate the relationship between fasting insulin levels and metabolic risk factors (MRFs) in type 2 diabetic patients at the first clinic/hospital visit in Japan over the years 2000 to 2009. In total, 4,798 drug-naive Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes were registered on their first clinic/hospital visits. Conventional clinical factors and fasting insulin levels were observed at baseline within the Japan Diabetes Clinical Data Management (JDDM) study between consecutive 2-year groups. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed using a model in which the dependent variable was fasting insulin values using various clinical explanatory variables. Fasting insulin levels were found to be decreasing from 2000 to 2009. Multiple linear regression analysis with the fasting insulin levels as the dependent variable showed that waist circumference (WC), BMI, mean blood pressure, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol were significant, with WC and BMI as the main factors. ANCOVA after adjustment for age and fasting plasma glucose clearly shows the decreasing trend in fasting insulin levels and the increasing trend in BMI. During the 10-year observation period, the decreasing trend in fasting insulin was related to the slight increase in WC/BMI in type 2 diabetes. Low pancreatic β-cell reserve on top of a lifestyle background might be dependent on an increase in MRFs.

Fasting Insulin Levels and Metabolic Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetic Patients at the First Visit in Japan

PubMed Central

Matsuba, Ikuro; Saito, Kazumi; Takai, Masahiko; Hirao, Koichi; Sone, Hirohito

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE To investigate the relationship between fasting insulin levels and metabolic risk factors (MRFs) in type 2 diabetic patients at the first clinic/hospital visit in Japan over the years 2000 to 2009. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In total, 4,798 drug-naive Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes were registered on their first clinic/hospital visits. Conventional clinical factors and fasting insulin levels were observed at baseline within the Japan Diabetes Clinical Data Management (JDDM) study between consecutive 2-year groups. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed using a model in which the dependent variable was fasting insulin values using various clinical explanatory variables. RESULTS Fasting insulin levels were found to be decreasing from 2000 to 2009. Multiple linear regression analysis with the fasting insulin levels as the dependent variable showed that waist circumference (WC), BMI, mean blood pressure, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol were significant, with WC and BMI as the main factors. ANCOVA after adjustment for age and fasting plasma glucose clearly shows the decreasing trend in fasting insulin levels and the increasing trend in BMI. CONCLUSIONS During the 10-year observation period, the decreasing trend in fasting insulin was related to the slight increase in WC/BMI in type 2 diabetes. Low pancreatic β-cell reserve on top of a lifestyle background might be dependent on an increase in MRFs. PMID:22665215

Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najibi, Nasser; Devineni, Naresh

2018-06-01

Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985-2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1-7, moderate: 8-20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections. While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors.

New and Recurrent Concussions in High-School Athletes Before and After Traumatic Brain Injury Laws, 2005-2016.

PubMed

Yang, Jingzhen; Comstock, R Dawn; Yi, Honggang; Harvey, Hosea H; Xun, Pengcheng

2017-12-01

To examine the trends of new and recurrent sports-related concussions in high-school athletes before and after youth sports traumatic brain injury laws. We used an interrupted time-series design and analyzed the concussion data (2005-2016) from High School Reporting Injury Online. We examined the trends of new or recurrent concussion rates among US representative high-school athletes participating in 9 sports across prelaw, immediate-postlaw, and postlaw periods by using general linear models. We defined 1 athlete exposure as attending 1 competition or practice. We included a total of 8043 reported concussions (88.7% new, 11.3% recurrent). The average annual concussion rate was 39.8 per 100 000 athlete exposures. We observed significantly increased trends of reported new and recurrent concussions from the prelaw, through immediate-postlaw, into the postlaw period. However, the recurrent concussion rate showed a significant decline 2.6 years after the laws went into effect. Football exhibited different trends compared with other boys' sports and girls' sports. Observed trends of increased concussion rates are likely attributable to increased identification and reporting. Additional research is needed to evaluate intended long-term impact of traumatic brain injury laws.

Variation in vulnerability to extreme-temperature-related mortality in Japan: A 40-year time-series analysis.

PubMed

Onozuka, Daisuke; Hagihara, Akihito

2015-07-01

Although the impact of extreme heat and cold on mortality has been documented in recent years, few studies have investigated whether variation in susceptibility to extreme temperatures has changed in Japan. We used data on daily total mortality and mean temperatures in Fukuoka, Japan, for 1973-2012. We used time-series analysis to assess the effects of extreme hot and low temperatures on all-cause mortality, stratified by decade, gender, and age, adjusting for time trends. We used a multivariate meta-analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate pooled non-linear lag-response relationships associated with extreme temperatures on mortality. The relative risk of mortality increased during heat extremes in all decades, with a declining trend over time. The mortality risk was higher during cold extremes for the entire study period, with a dispersed pattern across decades. Meta-analysis showed that both heat and cold extremes increased the risk of mortality. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for several days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. Our study provides quantitative evidence that extreme heat and low temperatures were significantly and non-linearly associated with the increased risk of mortality with substantial variation. Our results suggest that timely preventative measures are important for extreme high temperatures, whereas several days' protection should be provided for extreme low temperatures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A high resolution model of linear trend in mass variations from DMT-2: Added value of accounting for coloured noise in GRACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahani, Hassan H.; Ditmar, Pavel; Inácio, Pedro; Didova, Olga; Gunter, Brian; Klees, Roland; Guo, Xiang; Guo, Jing; Sun, Yu; Liu, Xianglin; Zhao, Qile; Riva, Riccardo

2017-01-01

We present a high resolution model of the linear trend in the Earth's mass variations based on DMT-2 (Delft Mass Transport model, release 2). DMT-2 was produced primarily from K-Band Ranging (KBR) data of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE). It comprises a time series of monthly solutions complete to spherical harmonic degree 120. A novel feature in its production was the accurate computation and incorporation of stochastic properties of coloured noise when processing KBR data. The unconstrained DMT-2 monthly solutions are used to estimate the linear trend together with a bias, as well as annual and semi-annual sinusoidal terms. The linear term is further processed with an anisotropic Wiener filter, which uses full noise and signal covariance matrices. Given the fact that noise in an unconstrained model of the trend is reduced substantially as compared to monthly solutions, the Wiener filter associated with the trend is much less aggressive compared to a Wiener filter applied to monthly solutions. Consequently, the trend estimate shows an enhanced spatial resolution. It allows signals in relatively small water bodies, such as Aral sea and Ladoga lake, to be detected. Over the ice sheets, it allows for a clear identification of signals associated with some outlet glaciers or their groups. We compare the obtained trend estimate with the ones from the CSR-RL05 model using (i) the same approach based on monthly noise covariance matrices and (ii) a commonly-used approach based on the DDK-filtered monthly solutions. We use satellite altimetry data as independent control data. The comparison demonstrates a high spatial resolution of the DMT-2 linear trend. We link this to the usage of high-accuracy monthly noise covariance matrices, which is due to an accurate computation and incorporation of coloured noise when processing KBR data. A preliminary comparison of the linear trend based on DMT-2 with that computed from GSFC_global_mascons_v01 reveals, among other, a high concentration of the signal along the coast for both models in areas like the ice sheets, Gulf of Alaska, and Iceland.

Spatiotemporal changes in vegetation net primary productivity in the arid region of Northwest China, 2001 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Pan, Jinghu

2018-03-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is recognized as an important index of ecosystem conditions and a key variable of the terrestrial carbon cycle. It also represents the comprehensive effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on terrestrial vegetation. In this study, the temporal-spatial pattern of NPP for the period 2001-2012 was analyzed using a remote sensing-based carbon model (i.e., the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach, CASA) in addition to other methods, such as linear trend analysis, standard deviation, and the Hurst index. Temporally, NPP showed a significant increasing trend for the arid region of Northwest China (ARNC), with an annual increase of 2.327 g C. Maximum and minimum productivity values appeared in July and December, respectively. Spatially, the NPP was relatively stable in the temperate and warm-temperate desert regions of Northwest China, while temporally, it showed an increasing trend. However, some attention should be given to the northwestern warm-temperate desert region, where there is severe continuous degradation and only a slight improvement trend.

[Completeness of notifications of violence perpetrated against adolescents in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil].

PubMed

Santos, Taciana Mirella Batista Dos; Cardoso, Mirian Domingos; Pitangui, Ana Carolina Rodarti; Santos, Yasmim Gabriella Cardoso; Paiva, Saul Martins; Melo, João Paulo Ramos; Silva, Lygia Maria Pereira

2016-12-01

The scope of this study was to analyze the trend of completeness of the data on violence perpetrated against adolescents registered in the State of Pernambuco between 2009 and 2012. This involved a cross-sectional survey of 5,259 adolescents, who were the victims of violence reported in SINAN-VIVA of the Pernambuco State Health Department. Simple linear regression was used to investigate the trend of completeness of the variables. The percentages of completeness were considered to be dependent variables (Y) and the number of years as independent variables (X). The results show a significant increase of 204% in the number of notifications. However, of the 34 variables analyzed, 27 (79.4%) showed a stationary trend, 6 (17.6%) a downward trend, and only one variable (2.9%) an upward trend. Completeness was considered 'Very Poor' for the variables: Education (47.3%), Full Address (21.3%), Occurrence Time (38%) and Use of Alcohol by the Attacker (47%). Therefore, despite the large increase in the number of notifications, data quality continued to be compromised, hampering a more realistic analysis of this group.

Trends in nutrients and suspended solids at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia, July 1988 through June 1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, C.F.; Belval, D.L.; Campbell, J.P.

1996-01-01

Water-quality samples were collected at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia during a 6- to 7-year period. The water-quality data were used to estimate loads of nutrients and suspended solids from these tributaries to the non-tidal part of Chesapeake Bay Basin and to identify trends in water quality. Knowledge of trends in water quality is required to assess the effectiveness of nutrient manage- ment strategies in the five basins. Multivariate log-linear regression and the seasonal Kendall test were used to estimate flow-adjusted trends in constituent concentration and load. Results of multivariate log-linear regression indicated a greater number of statistically significant trends than the seasonal Kendall test; how-ever, when both methods indicated a significant trend, both agreed on the direction of the trend. Interpre- tation of the trend estimates for this report was based on results of the parametric regression method. No significant trends in total nitrogen concentration were detected at the James River monitoring station from July 1988 through June 1995, though total Kjeldahl nitrogen concen- tration decreased slightly in base-flow samples. Total phosphorus concentration decreased about 29 percent at this station during the sampling period. Most of the decrease can be attributed to reductions in point-source phosphorus loads in 1988 and 1989, especially the phosphate detergent ban of 1988. No significant trends in total suspended solids were observed at the James River monitoring station, and no trends in runoff- derived constituents were interpreted for this river. Significant decreases were detected in concentrations of total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen, and total suspended solids at the Rappahannock River monitoring station between July 1988 and June 1995. A similar downward trend in total phosphorus concentration was significant at the 90-percent confidence level, but not the 95-percent confidence level. These decreases can be attributed primarily to reductions in nonpoint nutrient and sediment loads, and may have been partially caused by implementation of best management practices on agricultural and silvicultural land. Flow-adjusted trends observed at the Appomattox, Pamunkey, and Mattaponi monitoring stations were more difficult to explain than those at the James and Rappahannock stations. Total Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus increased 16 and 23 percent, respectively, at the Appomattox River monitoring station from July 1989 through June 1995. Total phosphorus concentration increased about 46 percent at the Pamunkey River monitoring station between July 1989 and June 1995. At the Mattaponi River monitoring station, decreases in dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen were offset by increases in total Kjeldahl nitrogen, resulting in no net change in total nitrogen concentration from October 1989 through June 1995.

Trends in Periprosthetic Hip Infection and Associated Costs: A Population-Based Study Assessing the Impact of Hospital Factors Using National Data.

PubMed

Brochin, Robert L; Phan, Kevin; Poeran, Jashvant; Zubizarreta, Nicole; Galatz, Leesa M; Moucha, Calin S

2018-07-01

Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is an important cost driver in hip arthroplasty revisions, thus necessitating careful trend monitoring. Recent national trend data are lacking; we therefore assessed national PJI burden, trends in prevalence, and hospitalization costs. We extracted data on hip arthroplasty revisions from the National Inpatient Sample (2003-2013; n = 465,209). Trends in PJI prevalence and hospitalization costs were (1) assessed for the full cohort and (2) stratified by hospital teaching status, hospital bed size (≤299, 300-499, and ≥500 beds), and hospital region (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West). The Cochran-Armitage trend test (PJI prevalence) and linear regression (hospitalization costs) determined significance of trends. Trends were adjusted for patient's age, gender, insurance type, race, Deyo-Charlson comorbidities, obesity, length of stay, and hospital characteristics. Overall, PJI prevalence was 15.0% (n = 70,011); adjusted prevalence increased from 13.1% in 2003 to 16.4% in 2013 (P < .0001), while adjusted median PJI hospitalization costs increased from $28,240 in 2003 to $31,529 in 2013 (P < .0001). Rural hospitals had the lowest PJI burden (12.5%; n = 4,525), while urban and teaching hospitals had the highest PJI burden (16.4%; n = 40,297). The stratified analyses, particularly in large hospitals (>500 beds), showed that PJI prevalence increased from 13.0% (2003) to 17.4% (2013; a 33.8% increase; P < .0001). Similarly, PJI revision hospitalization costs increased from a median of $27,490 (2003) to $31,312 (2013; a 14% increase; P < .0001). The burden of PJI in hip arthroplasty revision is increasing and-while additional research is needed-there appears to be a particular shift of revision burden to larger hospitals with increasing costs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The largest Last Supper: depictions of food portions and plate size increased over the millennium.

PubMed

Wansink, B; Wansink, C S

2010-05-01

Portion sizes of foods have been noticably increasing in recent years, but when did this trend begin? If art imitates life and if food portions have been generally increasing with time, we might expect this trend to be reflected in paintings that depict food. Perhaps the most commonly painted meal has been that of Jesus Christ's Last Supper, chronicled in the New Testament of the Bible. A CAD-CAM analysis of the relative food-to-head ratio in 52 representative paintings of the Last Supper showed that the relative sizes of the main dish (entree) (r=0.52, P=0.002), bread (r=0.30, P=0.04), and plates (r=0.46, P=0.02) have linearly increased over the past millennium.

Trends in prescriptions and costs of drugs for mental disorders in England, 1998-2010.

PubMed

Ilyas, Stephen; Moncrieff, Joanna

2012-05-01

Increasing rates of prescriptions for antidepressants, antipsychotics and stimulants have been reported from various countries. To examine trends in prescriptions and the costs of all classes of psychiatric medication in England. Data from the Prescription Cost Analysis 1998-2010 was examined, using linear regression analysis to examine trends. Prescriptions of drugs used for mental disorders increased by 6.8% (95% CI 6.3-7.4) per year on average, in line with other drugs, but made up an increasing proportion of all prescription drug costs (P = 0.001). There were rising trends in prescriptions of all classes of psychiatric drugs, except anxiolytics and hypnotics (which did not change). Antidepressant prescriptions increased by 10% (95% CI 9.0-11) per year on average, and antipsychotics by 5.1% (95% CI 4.3-5.9). Antipsychotics overtook antidepressants as the most costly class of psychiatric medication, with costs rising 22% (95% CI 17-27) per year. Rising prescriptions may be partly explained by longer-term treatment and increasing population. Nevertheless, it appears that psychiatric drugs make an increasing contribution to total prescription drug costs, with antipsychotics becoming the most costly. Low-dose prescribing of some antipsychotics is consistent with other evidence that their use may not be restricted to those with severe mental illness.

Understanding NOx emission trends in China based on OMI observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Ga, D.; Smeltzer, C. D.; Yi, R.; Liu, Z.

2012-12-01

We analyze OMI observations of NO2 columns over China from 2005 to 2010. Simulations using a regional 3-D chemical transport model (REAM) are used to derive the top-down anthropogenic NOx emissions. The Kendall method is then applied to derive the emission trend. The emission trend is affected by the economic slowdown in 2009. After removing the effect of one year abnormal data, the overall emission trend is 4.35±1.42% per year, which is slower than the linear-regression trend of 5.8-10.8% per year reported for previous years. We find large regional, seasonal, and urban-rural variations in emission trend. The annual emission trends of Northeast China, Central China Plain, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are 44.98±1.39%, 5.24±1.63%, 3.31±1.02% and -4.02±1.87%, respectively. The annual emission trends of four megacities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 0.7±0.27%, -0.75±0.31%, -4.08±1.21% and -6.22±2.85%,, considerably lower than the regional averages. These results appear to suggest that a number of factors, including migration of high-emission industries, vehicle emission regulations, emission control measures of thermal power plants, increased hydro-power usage, have reduced or reversed the increasing trend of NOx emissions in more economically developed megacities and southern coastal regions.

Trend in frequency of extreme precipitation events over Ontario from ensembles of multiple GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Ziwang; Qiu, Xin; Liu, Jinliang; Madras, Neal; Wang, Xiaogang; Zhu, Huaiping

2016-05-01

As one of the most important extreme weather event types, extreme precipitation events have significant impacts on human and natural environment. This study assesses the projected long term trends in frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation events represented by heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days, very wet days and extreme wet days over Ontario, based on results of 21 CMIP3 GCM runs. To achieve this goal, first, all model data are linearly interpolated onto 682 grid points (0.45° × 0.45°) in Ontario; Next, biases in model daily precipitation amount are corrected with a local intensity scaling method to make the total wet days and total wet day precipitation from each of the GCMs are consistent with that from the climate forecast system reanalysis data, and then the four indices are estimated for each of the 21 GCM runs for 1968-2000, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. After that, with the assumption that the rate parameter of the Poisson process for the occurrence of extreme precipitation events may vary with time as climate changes, the Poisson regression model which expresses the log rate as a linear function of time is used to detect the trend in frequency of extreme events in the GCMs simulations; Finally, the trends and their uncertainty are estimated. The result shows that in the twenty-first century annual heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days and very wet days and extreme wet days are likely to significantly increase over major parts of Ontario and particularly heavy precipitation days, very wet days are very likely to significantly increase in some sub-regions in eastern Ontario. However, trends of seasonal indices are not significant.

Trends in hydrological extremes in the Senegal and the Niger Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, C.; Bodian, A.; Vischel, T.; Panthou, G.; Quantin, G.

2017-12-01

In recent years, West Africa has witnessed several floods of unprecedented magnitude. Although the evolution of hydrological extremes has been evaluated in the region to some extent, results lack regional coverage, significance levels, uncertainty estimations, model selection criteria, or a combination of the above. In this study, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions with and without various non-stationary temporal covariates are applied to annual maxima of daily discharge (AMAX) data sets in the Sudano-Guinean part of the Senegal River basin and in the Sahelian part of the Niger River basin. The data ranges from the 1950s to the 2010s. The two models of best fit most often selected (with an alpha=0.05 certainty level) were 1) a double-linear model for the central tendency parameter (μ) with stationary dispersion (σ) and 2) a double-linear model for both parameters. Change points are relatively consistent for the Senegal basin, with stations switching from a decreasing streamflow trend to an increasing streamflow trend in the early 1980s. In the Niger basin the trend in μ was generally positive with an increase in slope after the change point, but the change point location was less consistent. The study clearly demonstrates the significant trends in extreme discharge values in West Africa over the past six decades. Moreover, it proposes a clear methodology for comparing GEV models and selecting the best for use. The return levels generated from the chosen models can be applied to river basin management and hydraulic works sizing. The results provide a first evaluation of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological values in West Africa that is accompanied by significance levels, uncertainties, and non-stationary return level estimations .

Comparison of GPS tropospheric delays derived from two consecutive EPN reprocessing campaigns from the point of view of climate monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldysz, Zofia; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Araszkiewicz, Andrzej; Figurski, Mariusz; Szafranek, Karolina

2016-09-01

The main purpose of this research was to acquire information about consistency of ZTD (zenith total delay) linear trends and seasonal components between two consecutive GPS reprocessing campaigns. The analysis concerned two sets of the ZTD time series which were estimated during EUREF (Reference Frame Sub-Commission for Europe) EPN (Permanent Network) reprocessing campaigns according to 2008 and 2015 MUT AC (Military University of Technology Analysis Centre) scenarios. Firstly, Lomb-Scargle periodograms were generated for 57 EPN stations to obtain a characterisation of oscillations occurring in the ZTD time series. Then, the values of seasonal components and linear trends were estimated using the LSE (least squares estimation) approach. The Mann-Kendall trend test was also carried out to verify the presence of linear long-term ZTD changes. Finally, differences in seasonal signals and linear trends between these two data sets were investigated. All these analyses were conducted for the ZTD time series of two lengths: a shortened 16-year series and a full 18-year one. In the case of spectral analysis, amplitudes of the annual and semi-annual periods were almost exactly the same for both reprocessing campaigns. Exceptions were found for only a few stations and they did not exceed 1 mm. The estimated trends were also similar. However, for the reprocessing performed in 2008, the trends values were usually higher. In general, shortening of the analysed time period by 2 years resulted in a decrease of the linear trends values of about 0.07 mm yr-1. This was confirmed by analyses based on two data sets.

Gender-Specific Trends in Educational Attainment and Self-Rated Health, 1972–2002

PubMed Central

Hill, Terrence D.; Needham, Belinda L.

2006-01-01

Objectives. We tested whether self-rated health has improved over time (1972–2002) for women and men. We also considered the degree to which historical gains in educational attainment help to explain any observed trends. Methods. Using 21 years of repeated cross-sectional data from the General Social Survey, we estimated a series of ordered logistic regression models predicting self-rated health. Results. Our results show that women’s health status has steadily improved over the 30-year period under study, and these improvements are largely explained by gains in educational attainment. We also found that the health trend for men is nonlinear, suggesting significant fluctuations in health status over time. Conclusions. Based on the linear health status trend and strong mediation pattern for women, and the nonlinear health status trend for men, women have benefited more than men, in terms of self-rated health, from increased educational attainment. PMID:16735623

Recent Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent trends and implications for the snow-albedo feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Brown, Ross D.

2007-11-01

Monotonic trend analysis of Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent (SCE) over the period 1972-2006 with the Mann-Kendall test reveals significant declines in SCE during spring over North America and Eurasia, with lesser declines during winter and some increases in fall SCE. The weekly mean trend attains -1.28, -0.78, and -0.48 × 106 km2 (35 years)-1 over the Northern Hemisphere, North America, and Eurasia, respectively. The standardized SCE time series vary and trend coherently over Eurasia and North America, with evidence of a poleward amplification of decreasing SCE trends during spring. Multiple linear regression analyses reveal a significant dependence of the retreat of the spring continental SCE on latitude and elevation. The poleward amplification is consistent with an enhanced snow-albedo feedback over northern latitudes that acts to reinforce an initial anomaly in the cryospheric system.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers' Adaptations.

PubMed

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers' technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008-2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4-66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers' practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations.

An Integrated Method to Analyze Farm Vulnerability to Climatic and Economic Variability According to Farm Configurations and Farmers’ Adaptations

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Magne, Marie-Angélina; Cristobal, Magali San

2017-01-01

The need to adapt to decrease farm vulnerability to adverse contextual events has been extensively discussed on a theoretical basis. We developed an integrated and operational method to assess farm vulnerability to multiple and interacting contextual changes and explain how this vulnerability can best be reduced according to farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. Our method considers farm vulnerability as a function of the raw measurements of vulnerability variables (e.g., economic efficiency of production), the slope of the linear regression of these measurements over time, and the residuals of this linear regression. The last two are extracted from linear mixed models considering a random regression coefficient (an intercept common to all farms), a global trend (a slope common to all farms), a random deviation from the general mean for each farm, and a random deviation from the general trend for each farm. Among all possible combinations, the lowest farm vulnerability is obtained through a combination of high values of measurements, a stable or increasing trend and low variability for all vulnerability variables considered. Our method enables relating the measurements, trends and residuals of vulnerability variables to explanatory variables that illustrate farm exposure to climatic and economic variability, initial farm configurations and farmers’ technical adaptations over time. We applied our method to 19 cattle (beef, dairy, and mixed) farms over the period 2008–2013. Selected vulnerability variables, i.e., farm productivity and economic efficiency, varied greatly among cattle farms and across years, with means ranging from 43.0 to 270.0 kg protein/ha and 29.4–66.0% efficiency, respectively. No farm had a high level, stable or increasing trend and low residuals for both farm productivity and economic efficiency of production. Thus, the least vulnerable farms represented a compromise among measurement value, trend, and variability of both performances. No specific combination of farmers’ practices emerged for reducing cattle farm vulnerability to climatic and economic variability. In the least vulnerable farms, the practices implemented (stocking rate, input use…) were more consistent with the objective of developing the properties targeted (efficiency, robustness…). Our method can be used to support farmers with sector-specific and local insights about most promising farm adaptations. PMID:28900435

Increasing prominence of implantology research: a chronological trend analysis of 100 top-cited articles in periodontal journals.

PubMed

Chiang, Ho-Sheng; Huang, Ren-Yeong; Weng, Pei-Wei; Mau, Lian-Ping; Su, Chi-Chun; Tsai, Yi-Wen Cathy; Wu, Yu-Chiao; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Shieh, Yi-Shing; Cheng, Wan-Chien

To identify 100 top-cited articles published in periodontal journals and analyse the research trends by using citation analysis. 100 top-cited articles published in periodontal journals were retrieved by searching the database of the ISI Web of Science and Journal Citation reports. For each article, the following principal bibliometric parameters: authorship, geographic and institute origin, manuscript type, study design, scope of study, and citation count of each time period were analysed from 1965 to 2015. The identified 100 top-cited articles were retrieved from five periodontal journals and citation counts were recorded between 262 and 1,693 times. For the institute of origin, the most productive institute, in terms of the number of 100 top-cited articles published, was the University of Gothenburg (Sweden) (n = 19), followed by the Forsyth Dental Center (USA) (n = 15). Most manuscripts were original research (n = 74), and the inflammatory periodontal disease (n = 59) was the most frequent topic studied. Interestingly, the trend of increase average citation reached significance for implantology (β = 26.75, P = 0.003) and systemic interactions (β = 29.83, P = 0.005), but not for inflammatory disease (β = -10.30, P = 0.248) and tissue regeneration (β = 9.04, P = 0.081). By using multivariable linear regression in a generalised linear model, suitable published journal (Journal of Clinical Periodontology), geographic regions (Europe), more intense international collaboration, adequate manuscript type (review article) and study design (systematic review) could be attributed to escalating average citation counts in implantology (all P < 0.05). However, for systemic interactions, only geographic region and study design were significantly associated with the increasing citation trend. These principal bibliometric characteristics revealed escalated trends in average citation count in implantology throughout time. Conflict-of-interest statement The authors have stated explicitly that there are no conflicts of interest in connection with this article. The study was self-funded by the authors and their institution.

Spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation remote sensing phenology and its response to climatic factors on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, S.; Chen, X.

2015-12-01

Based on the MODIS MCD12Q2 remote sensing phenology product, we analyzed spatiotemporal variations of vegetation green-up, maturity, senescence and brown-off dates, and their relation to spatiotemporal patterns of air temperature and precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). From 2001 to 2012, phenological time series at about 11.7%~15.1% pixels indicate significant linear trends (P<0.1) with strong spatial consistency. Namely, pixels with significant phenological advancement and growing season lengthening are mainly distributed in the middle and eastern parts of the QTP, while pixels with significant phenological delay and growing season shortening are mainly distributed in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge of the QTP. Similar spatial patterns for positive and negative linear trends of the minimum and maximum EVI, and the time-integrated EVI during the growing season were detected in the above two regions, respectively. With regard to climatic factors, mean annual temperature shows an increased trend over the QTP except for the eastern edge, whereas annual precipitation displays an increased trend in the middle and eastern parts but a decreased trend in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge of the QTP. These findings suggest that phenological advancement, growing season lengthening, and vegetation activity enhancement in the middle and eastern parts might be attributed to coincident temperature and precipitation increase. By contrast, phenological delay, growing season shortening, and vegetation activity reduction in the western and southern parts as well as the eastern edge might be caused by opposite changes of temperature and precipitation, and strong evaporation induced water shortage. Furthermore, a partial correlation analysis indicates that green-up, maturity, and brown-off dates were influenced by preceding temperature and precipitation, while senescence date was affected by preceding precipitation.

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is increasing in Norway: a time series analysis of reported MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus cases, 1997-2010.

PubMed

Moxnes, John F; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Leegaard, Truls Michael; Moen, Aina E Fossum

2013-01-01

Accurate estimates of the incidence and prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections are needed to inform public health policies. In Norway, where both MRSA infection and carriage are notifiable conditions, the reported incidence of MRSA is slowly increasing. However, the proportion of MRSA in relation to all S. aureus isolates is unknown, making it difficult to determine if the rising incidence is real or an artifact of an increasing number of tests performed. To characterize recent trends in MRSA infections and obtain a more complete understanding of the MRSA level in Norway. All reported cases of MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) from Oslo County (1997-2010) and Health Region East (2008-2008), representing approximately 11% and 36% of the Norwegian population, respectively, were analyzed using a stochastic time series analysis to characterize trends. In Oslo County, the proportion of methicillin-resistant cases increased from 0.73% to 3.78% during the study period and was well modeled by an exponential growth with a doubling constant of 5.7 years (95% CI 4.5-7.4 years). In Health Region East, the proportion of MRSA cases increased from 0.4% to 2.1% from 2002 to 2008, with a best-fitting linear increase of 0.26% (95% CI 0.21-0.30%) per year. In both cases, the choice of a linear or exponential model for the time trend produced only marginally different model fits. We found no significant changes due to revised national MRSA guidelines published in June 2009. Significant variations in the increasing time trend were observed in the five hospitals within the region. The yearly reported incidence of MSSA was relatively stable in both study areas although we found seasonal patterns with peaks in August. The level of MRSA is increasing in Norway, and the proportion of methicillin resistance in all S. aureus isolates are higher than the reported proportion of MRSA in invasive infections.

Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Is Increasing in Norway: A Time Series Analysis of Reported MRSA and Methicillin-Sensitive S. aureus Cases, 1997–2010

PubMed Central

Moxnes, John F.; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Leegaard, Truls Michael; Moen, Aina E. Fossum

2013-01-01

Background Accurate estimates of the incidence and prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections are needed to inform public health policies. In Norway, where both MRSA infection and carriage are notifiable conditions, the reported incidence of MRSA is slowly increasing. However, the proportion of MRSA in relation to all S. aureus isolates is unknown, making it difficult to determine if the rising incidence is real or an artifact of an increasing number of tests performed. Aim To characterize recent trends in MRSA infections and obtain a more complete understanding of the MRSA level in Norway. Methods All reported cases of MRSA and methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA) from Oslo County (1997–2010) and Health Region East (2008–2008), representing approximately 11% and 36% of the Norwegian population, respectively, were analyzed using a stochastic time series analysis to characterize trends. Results In Oslo County, the proportion of methicillin-resistant cases increased from 0.73% to 3.78% during the study period and was well modeled by an exponential growth with a doubling constant of 5.7 years (95% CI 4.5–7.4 years). In Health Region East, the proportion of MRSA cases increased from 0.4% to 2.1% from 2002 to 2008, with a best-fitting linear increase of 0.26% (95% CI 0.21–0.30%) per year. In both cases, the choice of a linear or exponential model for the time trend produced only marginally different model fits. We found no significant changes due to revised national MRSA guidelines published in June 2009. Significant variations in the increasing time trend were observed in the five hospitals within the region. The yearly reported incidence of MSSA was relatively stable in both study areas although we found seasonal patterns with peaks in August. Conclusion The level of MRSA is increasing in Norway, and the proportion of methicillin resistance in all S. aureus isolates are higher than the reported proportion of MRSA in invasive infections. PMID:23936442

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota, January 1965 through September 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2006-01-01

This report presents the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, the Devils Lake Basin Joint Water Resource Board, and the Red River Joint Water Resource District, to analyze historical water-quality trends in three dissolved major ions, three nutrients, and one dissolved trace element for eight stations in the Devils Lake Basin in North Dakota and to develop an efficient sampling design to monitor the future trends. A multiple-regression model was used to detect and remove streamflow-related variability in constituent concentrations. To separate the natural variability in concentration as a result of variability in streamflow from the variability in concentration as a result of other factors, the base-10 logarithm of daily streamflow was divided into four components-a 5-year streamflow anomaly, an annual streamflow anomaly, a seasonal streamflow anomaly, and a daily streamflow anomaly. The constituent concentrations then were adjusted for streamflow-related variability by removing the 5-year, annual, seasonal, and daily variability. Constituents used for the water-quality trend analysis were evaluated for a step trend to examine the effect of Channel A on water quality in the basin and a linear trend to detect gradual changes with time from January 1980 through September 2003. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved calcium concentrations during 1980-2003 for two stations were significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved sulfate concentrations for three stations were positive and similar in magnitude. Of the three upward trends, one was significant. The fitted step trends for dissolved chloride concentrations were positive but insignificant. The fitted linear trends for the upstream stations were small and insignificant, but three of the downward trends that occurred during 1980-2003 for the remaining stations were significant. The fitted upward linear trends for dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen concentrations during 1987-2003 for two stations were significant. However, concentrations during recent years appear to be lower than those for the 1970s and early 1980s but higher than those for the late 1980s and early 1990s. The fitted downward linear trend for dissolved ammonia concentrations for one station was significant. The fitted linear trends for total phosphorus concentrations for two stations were significant. Upward trends for total phosphorus concentrations occurred from the late 1980s to 2003 for most stations, but a small and insignificant downward trend occurred for one station. Continued monitoring will be needed to determine if the recent trend toward higher dissolved nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations continues in the future. For continued monitoring of water-quality trends in the upper Devils Lake Basin, an efficient sampling design consists of five major-ion, nutrient, and trace-element samples per year at three existing stream stations and at three existing lake stations. This sampling design requires the collection of 15 stream samples and 15 lake samples per year rather than 16 stream samples and 20 lake samples per year as in the 1992-2003 program. Thus, the design would result in a program that is less costly and more efficient than the 1992-2003 program but that still would provide the data needed to monitor water-quality trends in the Devils Lake Basin.

Trends in tans and skin protection in Australian fashion magazines, 1982 through 1991.

PubMed Central

Chapman, S; Marks, R; King, M

1992-01-01

We rated 3971 photographs of models from midsummer editions of six Australian fashion magazines from 1982-1983 to 1990-1991 for tan on a 9-point scale, for the presence of hats, for sun-protective clothing, and for shade setting. With the exception of the 1990-1991 sample, there was an increasing proportion of light tans over the years. Men were more likely to be deeply tanned than were women. The proportion of models wearing hats followed an increasing linear trend across the five periods. Three quarters of the outdoor photographs were taken in unshaded settings. In unshaded settings, 17% of the women and 5% of the men wore hats. PMID:1456348

Autism phenotype versus registered diagnosis in Swedish children: prevalence trends over 10 years in general population samples.

PubMed

Lundström, Sebastian; Reichenberg, Abraham; Anckarsäter, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul; Gillberg, Christopher

2015-04-28

To compare the annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype and of registered diagnoses for autism spectrum disorder during a 10 year period in children. Population based study. Child and Adolescent Twin Study and national patient register, Sweden. 19, 993 twins (190 with autism spectrum disorder) and all children (n=1,078,975; 4620 with autism spectrum disorder) born in Sweden over a 10 year period from 1993 to 2002. Annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype (that is, symptoms on which the diagnostic criteria are based) assessed by a validated parental telephone interview (the Autism-Tics, ADHD and other Comorbidities inventory), and annual prevalence of reported diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder in the national patient register. The annual prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype was stable during the 10 year period (P=0.87 for linear time trend). In contrast, there was a monotonic significant increase in prevalence of registered diagnoses of autism spectrum disorder in the national patient register (P<0.001 for linear trend). The prevalence of the autism symptom phenotype has remained stable in children in Sweden while the official prevalence for registered, clinically diagnosed, autism spectrum disorder has increased substantially. This suggests that administrative changes, affecting the registered prevalence, rather than secular factors affecting the pathogenesis, are important for the increase in reported prevalence of autism spectrum disorder. © Lundström et al 2015.

Geomorphic domains and linear features on Landsat images, Circle Quadrangle, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, S.L.

1984-01-01

A remote sensing study using Landsat images was undertaken as part of the Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program (AMRAP). Geomorphic domains A and B, identified on enhanced Landsat images, divide Circle quadrangle south of Tintina fault zone into two regional areas having major differences in surface characteristics. Domain A is a roughly rectangular, northeast-trending area of relatively low relief and simple, widely spaced drainages, except where igneous rocks are exposed. In contrast, domain B, which bounds two sides of domain A, is more intricately dissected showing abrupt changes in slope and relatively high relief. The northwestern part of geomorphic domain A includes a previously mapped tectonostratigraphic terrane. The southeastern boundary of domain A occurs entirely within the adjoining tectonostratigraphic terrane. The sharp geomorphic contrast along the southeastern boundary of domain A and the existence of known faults along this boundary suggest that the southeastern part of domain A may be a subdivision of the adjoining terrane. Detailed field studies would be necessary to determine the characteristics of the subdivision. Domain B appears to be divisible into large areas of different geomorphic terrains by east-northeast-trending curvilinear lines drawn on Landsat images. Segments of two of these lines correlate with parts of boundaries of mapped tectonostratigraphic terranes. On Landsat images prominent north-trending lineaments together with the curvilinear lines form a large-scale regional pattern that is transected by mapped north-northeast-trending high-angle faults. The lineaments indicate possible lithlogic variations and/or structural boundaries. A statistical strike-frequency analysis of the linear features data for Circle quadrangle shows that northeast-trending linear features predominate throughout, and that most northwest-trending linear features are found south of Tintina fault zone. A major trend interval of N.64-72E. in the linear feature data, corresponds to the strike of foliations in metamorphic rocks and magnetic anomalies reflecting compositional variations suggesting that most linear features in the southern part of the quadrangle probably are related to lithologic variations brought about by folding and foliation of metamorphic rocks. A second important trend interval, N.14-35E., may be related to thrusting south of the Tintina fault zone, as high concentrations of linear features within this interval are found in areas of mapped thrusts. Low concentrations of linear features are found in areas of most igneous intrusives. High concentrations of linear features do not correspond to areas of mineralization in any consistent or significant way that would allow concentration patterns to be easily used as an aid in locating areas of mineralization. The results of this remote sensing study indicate that there are several possibly important areas where further detailed studies are warranted.

Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C

2014-03-01

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into account the internal fluctuations in time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of laser irradiation on surface hardness and structural parameters of 7178 aluminium alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maryam, Siddra; Bashir, Farooq

2018-04-01

Aluminium 7178 samples were prepared and irradiated with Nd:YAG laser. The surfaces of exposed samples were investigated using optical microscopy, which revealed that the surface morphology of the samples is changed drastically as a function of laser shots. It is revealed from the micrographs that the laser heat effected area increases with the increase in the number of the laser pulses. Furthermore morphological and mechanical properties were studied using XRD and Vickers hardness testing. XRD study shows an increasing trend in Grain size with the increasing number of laser shots. And the hardness of the samples as a function of the laser shots shows that the hardness first increases and then it decreases gradually. It was observed that the grain size has no pronouncing effect on the hardness. Hardness profile has a decreasing trend with the increase in linear distance from the boundary of the laser heat affected area.

[Effect of irregular bedrock topography on the soil profile pattern of water content in a Karst hillslope.

PubMed

Jia, Jin Tian; Fu, Zhi Yong; Chen, Hong Song; Wang, Ke Lin; Zhou, Wei Jun

2016-06-01

Based on three manually excavated trenches (projection length of 21 m, width of 1 m) along a typical Karst hillslope, the changing trends for soil-bedrock structure, average water content of soil profile and soil-bedrock interface water content along each individual trench were studied. The effect of irregular bedrock topography on soil moisture distribution was discussed. The results showed that the surface topography was inconsistent with the bedrock topography in the Karst hill-slopes. The bedrock topography was highly irregular with a maximum variation coefficient of 82%. The distribution pattern of soil profile of moisture was significantly affected by the underlying undulant bedrock. The soil water content was related to slope position when the fluctuation was gentle, and displayed a linear increase from upslope to downslope. When the bedrock fluctuation increased, the downslope linear increasing trend for soil water content became unapparent, and the spatial continuity of soil moisture was weakened. The soil moisture was converged in rock dents and cracks. The average water content of soil profile was significantly positively correlated with the soil-bedrock interface water content, while the latter responded more sensitively to the bedrock fluctuation.

Identification of trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall over subtropical Assam in Northeast India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jhajharia, Deepak; Yadav, Brijesh K.; Maske, Sunil; Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Kar, Anil K.

2012-01-01

Trends in rainfall, rainy days and 24 h maximum rainfall are investigated using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test at twenty-four sites of subtropical Assam located in the northeastern region of India. The trends are statistically confirmed by both the parametric and non-parametric methods and the magnitudes of significant trends are obtained through the linear regression test. In Assam, the average monsoon rainfall (rainy days) during the monsoon months of June to September is about 1606 mm (70), which accounts for about 70% (64%) of the annual rainfall (rainy days). On monthly time scales, sixteen and seventeen sites (twenty-one sites each) witnessed decreasing trends in the total rainfall (rainy days), out of which one and three trends (seven trends each) were found to be statistically significant in June and July, respectively. On the other hand, seventeen sites witnessed increasing trends in rainfall in the month of September, but none were statistically significant. In December (February), eighteen (twenty-two) sites witnessed decreasing (increasing) trends in total rainfall, out of which five (three) trends were statistically significant. For the rainy days during the months of November to January, twenty-two or more sites witnessed decreasing trends in Assam, but for nine (November), twelve (January) and eighteen (December) sites, these trends were statistically significant. These observed changes in rainfall, although most time series are not convincing as they show predominantly no significance, along with the well-reported climatic warming in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons may have implications for human health and water resources management over bio-diversity rich Northeast India.

Trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan, Southwest Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatan, Abayomi A.; Osayomi, Tolulope; Akande, Samuel O.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Gutowski, William J.

2018-02-01

In recent times, Ibadan has been experiencing an increase in mean temperature which appears to be linked to anthropogenic global warming. Previous studies have indicated that the warming may be accompanied by changes in extreme events. This study examined trends in mean and extreme temperatures over Ibadan during 1971-2012 at annual and seasonal scales using the high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth-century dataset (ERA-20C) at 15 grid points. Magnitudes of linear trends in mean and extreme temperatures and their statistical significance were calculated using ordinary least squares and Mann-Kendall rank statistic tests. The results show that Ibadan has witnessed an increase in annual and seasonal mean minimum temperatures. The annual mean maximum temperature exhibited a non-significant decline in most parts of Ibadan. While trends in cold extremes at annual scale show warming, trends in coldest night show greater warming than in coldest day. At the seasonal scale, we found that Ibadan experienced a mix of positive and negative trends in absolute extreme temperature indices. However, cold extremes show the largest trend magnitudes, with trends in coldest night showing the greatest warming. The results compare well with those obtained from a limited number of stations. This study should inform decision-makers and urban planners about the ongoing warming in Ibadan.

Trends in adolescent smoking initiation in the United States: is tobacco marketing an influence?

PubMed

Gilpin, E A; Pierce, J P

1997-01-01

To compare recent trends in smoking initiation by adolescents with trends in inflation-adjusted cigarette pricing and tobacco marketing expenditures. We examined smoking initiation trends in demographic subgroups of adolescents aged 14-17 years during the decade 1979-1989. Data on cigarette pricing and tobacco marketing expenditures were adjusted for inflation and plotted over this same period. Large population surveys, United States. 140,975 ever-smokers aged 17-38 when surveyed in 1992 or 1993, who reported on age of smoking initiation during the decade 1979-1989. Initiation rate was calculated as the number in an age group who reported starting to smoke regularly in a year, divided by the number of never-smokers at the start of the year. Trends were evaluated by linear and quadratic models. From 1979 to 1984, adolescent initiation rates decreased, but increased thereafter, particularly among males, whites, and those who, as adults, reported never having graduated from high school. Cigarette price increased throughout the decade as did tobacco marketing expenditures, especially for coupons, value-added items, and promotional allowances. Availability of cheaper cigarettes is not likely to be a cause of increased smoking initiation by adolescents. Although other influences cannot be ruled out, we suspect that the expanded tobacco marketing budget, with its increased emphasis on tactics that may be particularly pertinent to young people, affected adolescent initiation rates.

Spatial and temporal variation in the association between temperature and salmonellosis in NZ.

PubMed

Lal, Aparna; Hales, Simon; Kirk, Martyn; Baker, Michael G; French, Nigel P

2016-04-01

Modelling the relationship between weather, climate and infectious diseases can help identify high-risk periods and provide understanding of the determinants of longer-term trends. We provide a detailed examination of the non-linear and delayed association between temperature and salmonellosis in three New Zealand cities (Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch). Salmonella notifications were geocoded to the city of residence for the reported case. City-specific associations between weekly maximum temperature and the onset date for reported salmonella infections (1997-2007) were modelled using non-linear distributed lag models, while controlling for season and long-term trends. Relatively high temperatures were positively associated with infection risk in Auckland (n=3,073) and Christchurch (n=880), although the former showed evidence of a more immediate relationship with exposure to high temperatures. There was no significant association between temperature and salmonellosis risk in Wellington. Projected increases in temperature with climate change may have localised health impacts, suggesting that preventative measures will need to be region-specific. This evidence contributes to the increasing concern over the public health impacts of climate change. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

Comparison of statistical models for analyzing wheat yield time series.

PubMed

Michel, Lucie; Makowski, David

2013-01-01

The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale.

Trends in high-risk sexual behaviors among general population groups in China: a systematic review.

PubMed

Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

2013-01-01

The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population.

Frequency-risk and duration-risk relations between second-hand smoke exposure and menopausal symptoms among middle-aged women in Guangzhou, China.

PubMed

Ye, X; Yao, Z; Xu, Y; Zhou, S; Gao, Y; Chen, S; Yang, Y

2015-04-01

Tobacco smoking and menopausal symptoms are strongly associated, but the possible effects of second-hand smoke (SHS) have not been evaluated. This study aimed to explore the possible frequency-risk and duration-risk relations between SHS exposure and menopausal symptoms among non-smoking, middle-aged women. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Guangzhou, China using a stratified three-stage sampling method. Menopausal symptoms were measured by the modified Kupperman Index with a cut-off point of 7. The frequency-risk and duration-risk relations between SHS exposure and menopausal symptoms were examined using logistic regression models. Compared with non-exposure, SHS exposure was associated with increased menopausal symptoms (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-2.33 for exposure in any of the venues). The trend analysis showed that there were frequency-risk (OR = 1.43 for occasional exposure; OR = 2.30 for regular exposure; p for linear trend < 0.001) and duration-risk (OR = 1.09 for 1-15 years; OR = 1.99 for > 15 years; p for linear trend < 0.001) relations. When examining the frequency-risk and duration-risk relations by source of exposure (in homes or in workplaces), there was still evidence of increasing trend for risk of menopausal symptoms. Findings from the present study suggest that SHS exposure is positively associated with menopausal symptoms in middle-aged women in a dose-response manner and highlight the need for further research to establish the mechanisms of the association.

Trends in High-Risk Sexual Behaviors among General Population Groups in China: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W. N.; de Vlas, Sake J.

2013-01-01

Background The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Methods We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Results We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Discussion Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population. PMID:24236121

Effect of Body Mass Index on Postoperative Transfusions and 24-Hour Chest-Tube Output

PubMed Central

Nolan, Heather R.; Ramaiah, Chandrashekhar

2011-01-01

An increasing obese population in the United States focuses attention on the effect of obesity on surgical outcomes. Our objective was to see if obesity, determined by body mass index (BMI), contributed to bleeding in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery as measured by intraoperative and postoperative packed red blood cell transfusion frequency and amount and 24-hour chest-tube output. A retrospective chart review examined 150 subjects undergoing single-surgeon off-pump or on-pump CABG surgery between September 2006 and April 2009. BMI groups included normal-weight (BMI <25), overweight (BMI 25 to 29), and obese (BMI ≥30). Analyses used a chi-square test to determine variances in number of transfusions, and ANOVA for transfusion amount and 24-hour chest-tube amount. The percentage of subjects receiving intraoperative transfusions varied significantly by BMI group (p = 0.022). The percentage of subjects receiving transfusions in the 72-hour postoperative period showed a decreasing linear trend based on BMI group (p = 0.054). The percentage of subjects receiving transfusions in the combined intraoperative or 72-hour postoperative period showed a decreasing linear trend based on BMI group (p = 0.054). The transfusion amount during the 72-hour postoperative period varied significantly between BMI groups (p = 0.021), and the test for a linear decrease across groups was significant (p = 0.020). Twenty-four hour chest-tube output showed variation across all three BMI categories (p = 0.018) with chest-tube output decreasing with increasing obesity in a linear fashion (p = 0.006). Transfusion rate and amount indicate total blood loss is decreased in the obese, and chest-tube output findings give a direct measurable indicator of blood loss from the surgical site indicating increasing BMI is linearly correlated with decreasing postoperative bleeding. PMID:22654469

Initial Polarimetric Analysis of the Vestoid Asteroid Family

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maleszewski, C.; McMillan, R. S.; Smith, P.

2013-12-01

Observations of polarized light scattered off of asteroid regolith have been used to compare the major asteroid taxonomic types. Members within a taxonomic type tend to have similar polarimetric phase curves (linear polarization vs. phase angle). The polarization also exhibits a wavelength dependence. For the S-complex, the polarization decreases linearly with increasing wavelength. This is different from the C-complex, which has the opposite dependence of polarization on wavelength. The slope of wavelength dependence also changes with phase angle for both complexes; at higher phase angles, the wavelength dependence is steeper. One of the less analyzed taxonomic types with regards to polarization is the V-type. Focus has been placed on the largest member of the V-types: Vesta. However, the Vestoids, which are thought to be collisional remnants of Vesta, have not been analyzed. Due to Vesta's differentiation, the Vestoids as a whole should contain members with significant differences in composition. This in turn should mean significant variations in the polarization observed from these bodies. In order to confirm such differences, we have begun a polarimetric survey of Vestoids. Over thirty observations of six different Vestoids were obtained using the SPOL spectropolarimeter (http://james.as.arizona.edu/~psmith/SPOL/ ) and Steward Observatory telescopes. The wavelength dependence of linear polarization was plotted with respect to the observed phase angle. The linear polarization trends in each of the synthesized B, V, and R bandpasses do not fit a single curve, contrary to that displayed by ensembles of asteroids in other taxonomic complexes. This suggests that these particular targets have dissimilar albedos. This is consistent with the range of albedos measured for the Vestoids through thermal models. However, there is no discernable trend for individual Vestoids with regards to wavelength dependence. Unlike the S- and C-complexes, our data show examples in which the polarization both increases and decreases with wavelength. When our Vestoid data are combined, the wavelength dependence becomes more negative (i.e. polarization tends to decrease with wavelength) as phase angle increases. This is similar to the trend observed in the S-complex, but the opposite trend when compared to the C-complex. The wavelength dependence of Vestoids suggests that this dependence is not strongly affected by albedo. The Vestoids are significantly smaller in size than the asteroids for which other measurements of the wavelength dependence have been analyzed. Possible grain size effects could be a cause of the dissimilar wavelength dependence between the Vestoids and other taxonomic complexes. However, further investigation is needed to explore this possibility.

Changes in Initial Expenditures for Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Evaluation in the Medicare Population: A Comparison to Overall Medicare Inflation

PubMed Central

Bellinger, Adam S.; Elliott, Sean P.; Yang, Liu; Wei, John T.; Saigal, Christopher S.; Smith, Alexandria; Wilt, Timothy J.; Strope, Seth A.

2012-01-01

Introduction Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) creates significant expenses for the Medicare program. We sought to determine trends in expenditures for BPH evaluative testing after urologist consultation, and place these trends in the context of overall Medicare expenditures. Methods Using a 5% national sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2000 to 2007, we developed a cohort of men with claims for new visits to urologists for diagnoses consistent with symptomatic BPH (n=40,253). We assessed trends in initial expenditures (within 12 months of diagnosis; inflation and geography adjusted) by categories of evaluative tests derived from the 2003 AUA Guideline on the Management of BPH. Using governmental reports on Medicare expenditures, trends in BPH expenditures were compared to overall and imaging-specific Medicare expenditures. Comparisons were assessed by Z-tests and regression analysis for linear trends as appropriate. Results Between 2000 and 2007 inflation adjusted total Medicare expenditure per patient for the initial evaluation of BPH patients seen by urologists increased from $255.44 to $343.98 (p<0.0001). Increases in BPH related imaging (55%), were significantly less than increases in overall Medicare expenditures on imaging (104%; p<0.001). The 35% increase in per patient expenditures for BPH was significantly lower than the increase in overall Medicare expenditure per enrollee (45%; p=0.0.0015). Conclusion From 2000 to 2007, inflation adjusted expenditures on BPH related evaluations increased. This growth was slower than overall growth in Medicare expenditures, and increases in imaging expenditures related to BPH were restrained compared to the Medicare program as a whole. PMID:22425128

Gender trends in dental leadership and academics: a twenty-two-year observation.

PubMed

Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Kongkiatkamon, Suchada; Ross, Sasha; Prasad, Soni; Koerber, Anne; Sukotjo, Cortino

2010-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine gender disparities in dental leadership and academics in the United States. Nine journals that represent the dental specialties and high published impact factors were selected to analyze the percentage of female dentists' first and senior authorship for the years 1986, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008. Data on appointment status and female deanship were collected from the American Dental Association (ADA) survey, and the trends were studied. The proportion of female presidents in ADA-recognized specialty organizations was also calculated. Overall, the increase in first female authorship was not statistically significant, but the increase of last female authorship was statistically significant in a linear trend over the years. The percentage of tenured female faculty members and female deans in U.S. dental schools increased by factors of 1.7 and 9, respectively, during the study period. However, female involvement in professional organizations was limited. Findings from this study indicate that female participation in authorship and leadership has increased over time. Nevertheless, females are still a minority in dental academics and leadership.

Bi-phasic trends in mercury concentrations in blood of Wisconsin common loons during 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Watras, Carl J.; Fevold, Brick M.; Kenow, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) assessed the ecological risk of mercury (Hg) in aquatic systems by monitoring common loon (Gavia immer) population dynamics and blood Hg concentrations. We report temporal trends in blood Hg concentrations based on 334 samples collected from adults recaptured in subsequent years (resampled 2-9 times) and from 421 blood samples of chicks collected at lakes resampled 2-8 times 1992-2010.. Temporal trends were identified with generalized additive mixed effects models (GAMMs) and mixed effects models to account for the potential lack of independence among observations from the same loon or same lake. Trend analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in the blood of Wisconsin loons declined over the period 1992-2000, and increased during 2002-2010, but not to the level observed in the early 1990s. The best fitting linear mixed effects model included separate trends for the two time periods. The estimated trend in Hg concentration among the adult loon population during 1992-2000 was -2.6% per year and the estimated trend during 2002-2010 was +1.8% per year; chick blood Hg concentrations decreased by -6.5% per year during 1992-2000, but increased 1.8% per year during 2002-2010. This bi-phasic pattern is similar to trends observed for concentrations of methylmercury (meHg) and SO4 in lake water of a well studied seepage lake (Little Rock Lake, Vilas County) within our study area. A cause-effect relationship between these independent trends is hypothesized.

Per capita alcohol consumption in Australia: will the real trend please step forward?

PubMed

Chikritzhs, Tanya N; Allsop, Steve J; Moodie, A Rob; Hall, Wayne D

2010-11-15

To estimate the national trend in per capita consumption (PCC) of alcohol for Australians aged 15 years and older for the financial years 1990-91 to 2008-09. With the use of data obtained from Australian Bureau of Statistics' catalogues and World Advertising Research Centre reports, three alternative series of annual totals of PCC of alcohol for the past 20 years (1990-91 to 2008-09) were estimated based on different assumptions about the alcohol content of wine. For the "old" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have been stable over time. For the "new" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have increased once in 2004-05 and then to have remained stable to 2008-09. For the "adjusted" series, the alcohol content of wine was assumed to have gradually increased over time, beginning in 1998-99. Linear trend analysis was applied to identify significant trends. National trend in annual PCC of alcohol 1990-91 to 2008-09. The new and adjusted series of annual totals of PCC of alcohol showed increasing trends; the old series was stable. Until recently, official national annual totals of PCC of alcohol were underestimated and led to the mistaken impression that levels of alcohol consumption had been stable since the early 1990s. In fact, Australia's total PCC has been increasing significantly over time because of a gradual increase in the alcohol content and market share of wine and is now at one of its highest points since 1991-92. This new information is consistent with evidence of increasing alcohol-related harm and highlights the need for timely and accurate data on alcohol sales and harms across Australia.

Epidemiological Trends of GI Cancers in Patients Visiting a Tertiary Care Hospital in Chandigarh, North India.

PubMed

Sharma, Munesh K; Singh, Tarundeep; Pandey, Avdesh K; Kankaria, Ankita

2015-01-01

Cancer has become an epidemic disease. Nearly ten million new cancer cases are diagnosed annually in the world and out of these about half are from the developing world. To appropriately plan for treatment, management and prevention of the disease, it becomes necessary to study the trends about morbidity caused by cancers. Data for patients diagnosed with any form of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers was extracted from records maintained in the outpatient department registers of the Oncology Department of Government Medical College and Hospital in Chandigarh from 1999 to 2012. Trends were analysed for different categories of GI cancers for the period of 12 years. In present study GI cancers accounted for 23 % of all registered cases (n-9603) of carcinomas. Males predominated for all GI cancers except in the gall bladder. Gastrointestinal cancers as a proportion of total cancers increased from 21% in 1999 to 25.9% in 2012 with a significant increasing trend in our series (χ2 for linear trend=9.36, p<0.003). Cancers of the tonsil, oral cavity and pharynx taken together showed an increasing trend over the years (χ2 for trend=55.2, p<0.001) whereas cancers of the lower GI (χ2=19.6, p<0.0001) and gall bladder (χ2=19.5, p<0.0001) showed a declining trend in our series. GI cancers form a significant proportion of all cancers reporting to our data. In depth studies to ascertain the reasons for the changing trends are required to design intervention programs. Further information is necessary from cancer registries and from the hospital records of oncology departments.

How is the weather? Forecasting inpatient glycemic control

PubMed Central

Saulnier, George E; Castro, Janna C; Cook, Curtiss B; Thompson, Bithika M

2017-01-01

Aim: Apply methods of damped trend analysis to forecast inpatient glycemic control. Method: Observed and calculated point-of-care blood glucose data trends were determined over 62 weeks. Mean absolute percent error was used to calculate differences between observed and forecasted values. Comparisons were drawn between model results and linear regression forecasting. Results: The forecasted mean glucose trends observed during the first 24 and 48 weeks of projections compared favorably to the results provided by linear regression forecasting. However, in some scenarios, the damped trend method changed inferences compared with linear regression. In all scenarios, mean absolute percent error values remained below the 10% accepted by demand industries. Conclusion: Results indicate that forecasting methods historically applied within demand industries can project future inpatient glycemic control. Additional study is needed to determine if forecasting is useful in the analyses of other glucometric parameters and, if so, how to apply the techniques to quality improvement. PMID:29134125

Evaluation of Two Statistical Methods Provides Insights into the Complex Patterns of Alternative Polyadenylation Site Switching

PubMed Central

Li, Jie; Li, Rui; You, Leiming; Xu, Anlong; Fu, Yonggui; Huang, Shengfeng

2015-01-01

Switching between different alternative polyadenylation (APA) sites plays an important role in the fine tuning of gene expression. New technologies for the execution of 3’-end enriched RNA-seq allow genome-wide detection of the genes that exhibit significant APA site switching between different samples. Here, we show that the independence test gives better results than the linear trend test in detecting APA site-switching events. Further examination suggests that the discrepancy between these two statistical methods arises from complex APA site-switching events that cannot be represented by a simple change of average 3’-UTR length. In theory, the linear trend test is only effective in detecting these simple changes. We classify the switching events into four switching patterns: two simple patterns (3’-UTR shortening and lengthening) and two complex patterns. By comparing the results of the two statistical methods, we show that complex patterns account for 1/4 of all observed switching events that happen between normal and cancerous human breast cell lines. Because simple and complex switching patterns may convey different biological meanings, they merit separate study. We therefore propose to combine both the independence test and the linear trend test in practice. First, the independence test should be used to detect APA site switching; second, the linear trend test should be invoked to identify simple switching events; and third, those complex switching events that pass independence testing but fail linear trend testing can be identified. PMID:25875641

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Caloric sweetener consumption and dyslipidemia among US adults.

PubMed

Welsh, Jean A; Sharma, Andrea; Abramson, Jerome L; Vaccarino, Viola; Gillespie, Cathleen; Vos, Miriam B

2010-04-21

Dietary carbohydrates have been associated with dyslipidemia, a lipid profile known to increase cardiovascular disease risk. Added sugars (caloric sweeteners used as ingredients in processed or prepared foods) are an increasing and potentially modifiable component in the US diet. No known studies have examined the association between the consumption of added sugars and lipid measures. To assess the association between consumption of added sugars and blood lipid levels in US adults. Cross-sectional study among US adults (n = 6113) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2006. Respondents were grouped by intake of added sugars using limits specified in dietary recommendations (< 5% [reference group], 5%-<10%, 10%-<17.5%, 17.5%-<25%, and > or = 25% of total calories). Linear regression was used to estimate adjusted mean lipid levels. Logistic regression was used to determine adjusted odds ratios of dyslipidemia. Interactions between added sugars and sex were evaluated. Adjusted mean high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), geometric mean triglycerides, and mean low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels and adjusted odds ratios of dyslipidemia, including low HDL-C levels (< 40 mg/dL for men; < 50 mg/dL for women), high triglyceride levels (> or = 150 mg/dL), high LDL-C levels (> or = 130 mg/dL), or high ratio of triglycerides to HDL-C (> 3.8). Results were weighted to be representative of the US population. A mean of 15.8% of consumed calories was from added sugars. Among participants consuming less than 5%, 5% to less than 17.5%, 17.5% to less than 25%, and 25% or greater of total energy as added sugars, adjusted mean HDL-C levels were, respectively, 58.7, 57.5, 53.7, 51.0, and 47.7 mg/dL (P < .001 for linear trend), geometric mean triglyceride levels were 105, 102, 111, 113, and 114 mg/dL (P < .001 for linear trend), and LDL-C levels modified by sex were 116, 115, 118, 121, and 123 mg/dL among women (P = .047 for linear trend). There were no significant trends in LDL-C levels among men. Among higher consumers (> or = 10% added sugars) the odds of low HDL-C levels were 50% to more than 300% greater compared with the reference group (< 5% added sugars). In this study, there was a statistically significant correlation between dietary added sugars and blood lipid levels among US adults.

Complexation of Polyelectrolyte Micelles with Oppositely Charged Linear Chains.

PubMed

Kalogirou, Andreas; Gergidis, Leonidas N; Miliou, Kalliopi; Vlahos, Costas

2017-03-02

The formation of interpolyelectrolyte complexes (IPECs) from linear AB diblock copolymer precursor micelles and oppositely charged linear homopolymers is studied by means of molecular dynamics simulations. All beads of the linear polyelectrolyte (C) are charged with elementary quenched charge +1e, whereas in the diblock copolymer only the solvophilic (A) type beads have quenched charge -1e. For the same Bjerrum length, the ratio of positive to negative charges, Z +/- , of the mixture and the relative length of charged moieties r determine the size of IPECs. We found a nonmonotonic variation of the size of the IPECs with Z +/- . For small Z +/- values, the IPECs retain the size of the precursor micelle, whereas at larger Z +/- values the IPECs decrease in size due to the contraction of the corona and then increase as the aggregation number of the micelle increases. The minimum size of the IPECs is obtained at lower Z +/- values when the length of the hydrophilic block of the linear diblock copolymer decreases. The aforementioned findings are in agreement with experimental results. At a smaller Bjerrum length, we obtain the same trends but at even smaller Z +/- values. The linear homopolymer charged units are distributed throughout the corona.

Consistency Between Increasing Trends in Added-Sugar Intake and Body Mass Index Among Adults: The Minnesota Heart Survey, 1980–1982 to 2007–2009

PubMed Central

Wang, Huifen; Zhou, Xia; Harnack, Lisa; Luepker, Russell V.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We described 27-year secular trends in added-sugar intake and body mass index (BMI) among Americans aged 25 to 74 years. Methods. The Minnesota Heart Survey (1980–1982 to 2007–2009) is a surveillance study of cardiovascular risk factors among residents of the Minneapolis–St Paul area. We used generalized linear mixed regressions to describe trends in added-sugar intake and BMI by gender and age groups and intake trends by weight status. Results. BMI increased concurrently with added-sugar intake in both genders and all age and weight groups. Percentage of energy intake from added sugar increased by 54% in women between 1980 to 1982 and 2000 to 2002, but declined somewhat in 2007 to 2009; men followed the same pattern (all P < .001). Added-sugar intake was lower among women than men and higher among younger than older adults. BMI in women paralleled added-sugar intake, but men's BMI increased through 2009. Percentage of energy intake from added sugar was similar among weight groups. Conclusions. Limiting added-sugar intake should be part of energy balance strategies in response to the obesity epidemic. PMID:22698050

Gestational diabetes in the United States: temporal changes in prevalence rates between 1979 and 2010.

PubMed

Lavery, J A; Friedman, A M; Keyes, K M; Wright, J D; Ananth, C V

2017-04-01

To examine age-period-cohort effects on trends in gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) prevalence in the US, and to evaluate how these trends have affected the rates of stillbirth and large for gestational age (LGA)/macrosomia. Retrospective cohort study. USA, 1979-2010. Over 125 million pregnancies (3 337 284 GDM cases) associated with hospitalisations. Trends in GDM prevalence were examined via weighted Poisson models to parse out the extent to which GDM trends can be attributed to maternal age, period of delivery, and maternal birth cohort. Multilevel models were used to assess the contribution of population effects to the rate of GDM. Log-linear Poisson regression models were used to estimate the contributions of the increasing GDM rates to changes in the rates of LGA and stillbirth between 1979-81 and 2008-10. Rates and rate ratios (RRs). Compared with 1979-1980 (0.3%), the rate of GDM has increased to 5.8% in 2008-10, indicating a strong period effect. Substantial age and modest cohort effects were evident. The period effect is partly explained by period trends in body mass index (BMI), race, and maternal smoking. The increasing prevalence of GDM is associated with a 184% (95% CI 180-188%) decline in the rate of LGA/macrosomia and a 0.75% (95% CI 0.74-0.76) increase in the rate of stillbirths for 2008-10, compared with 1979-81. The temporal increase in GDM can be attributed to period of pregnancy and age. Increasing BMI appears to partially contribute to the GDM increase in the US. The increasing prevalence of GDM can be attributed to period of delivery and increasing maternal age. © 2016 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Room temperature giant and linear magnetoresistance in topological insulator Bi2Te3 nanosheets.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaolin; Du, Yi; Dou, Shixue; Zhang, Chao

2012-06-29

Topological insulators, a new class of condensed matter having bulk insulating states and gapless metallic surface states, have demonstrated fascinating quantum effects. However, the potential practical applications of the topological insulators are still under exploration worldwide. We demonstrate that nanosheets of a Bi(2)Te(3) topological insulator several quintuple layers thick display giant and linear magnetoresistance. The giant and linear magnetoresistance achieved is as high as over 600% at room temperature, with a trend towards further increase at higher temperatures, as well as being weakly temperature-dependent and linear with the field, without any sign of saturation at measured fields up to 13 T. Furthermore, we observed a magnetic field induced gap below 10 K. The observation of giant and linear magnetoresistance paves the way for 3D topological insulators to be useful for practical applications in magnetoelectronic sensors such as disk reading heads, mechatronics, and other multifunctional electromagnetic applications.

An operational definition of a statistically meaningful trend.

PubMed

Bryhn, Andreas C; Dimberg, Peter H

2011-04-28

Linear trend analysis of time series is standard procedure in many scientific disciplines. If the number of data is large, a trend may be statistically significant even if data are scattered far from the trend line. This study introduces and tests a quality criterion for time trends referred to as statistical meaningfulness, which is a stricter quality criterion for trends than high statistical significance. The time series is divided into intervals and interval mean values are calculated. Thereafter, r(2) and p values are calculated from regressions concerning time and interval mean values. If r(2) ≥ 0.65 at p ≤ 0.05 in any of these regressions, then the trend is regarded as statistically meaningful. Out of ten investigated time series from different scientific disciplines, five displayed statistically meaningful trends. A Microsoft Excel application (add-in) was developed which can perform statistical meaningfulness tests and which may increase the operationality of the test. The presented method for distinguishing statistically meaningful trends should be reasonably uncomplicated for researchers with basic statistics skills and may thus be useful for determining which trends are worth analysing further, for instance with respect to causal factors. The method can also be used for determining which segments of a time trend may be particularly worthwhile to focus on.

Structural and lithologic study of northern coast ranges and Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The pattern of linear systems within the project area has been extended into the western foothill belt of the Sierra Nevada. The chief pattern of linear features in the western Sierran foothill belt trends about N. 10 - 15 deg W., but in the vicinity of the Feather River the trend of the features abruptly changes to about N. 50-60 deg W and appears to be contiguous across the Sacramento Valley with a similar system of linear features in the Coast Ranges. The linear features in the Modoc Plateau and Klamath Mt. areas appear unrelated to the systems detected in the Coast Ranges of Sierran foothill belt. Although the change in trend of the Sierran structural features has been previously suggested and the interrelationship of the Klamath Mt. region with the northern Sierra Nevadas has been postulated, the data obtained from the ERTS-1 imagery strengthens these notions and provides for the first time evidence of a direct connection of the structural trends within the alluviated part of the Sacramento Valley. In addition rocks of Pleistocene and Holocene age are offset by some of the linear features seen on ERTS-1 imagery and hence may record the latest episode of geologic deformation in north-central California.

Multiple Gas-Phase Conformations of a Synthetic Linear Poly(acrylamide) Polymer Observed Using Ion Mobility-Mass Spectrometry.

PubMed

Haler, Jean R N; Far, Johann; Aqil, Abdelhafid; Claereboudt, Jan; Tomczyk, Nick; Giles, Kevin; Jérôme, Christine; De Pauw, Edwin

2017-11-01

Ion mobility-mass spectrometry (IM-MS) has emerged as a powerful separation and identification tool to characterize synthetic polymer mixtures and topologies (linear, cyclic, star-shaped,…). Electrospray coupled to IM-MS already revealed the coexistence of several charge state-dependent conformations for a single charge state of biomolecules with strong intramolecular interactions, even when limited resolving power IM-MS instruments were used. For synthetic polymers, the sample's polydispersity allows the observation of several chain lengths. A unique collision cross-section (CCS) trend is usually observed when increasing the degree of polymerization (DP) at constant charge state, allowing the deciphering of different polymer topologies. In this paper, we report multiple coexisting CCS trends when increasing the DP at constant charge state for linear poly(acrylamide) PAAm in the gas phase. This is similar to observations on peptides and proteins. Biomolecules show in addition population changes when collisionally heating the ions. In the case of synthetic PAAm, fragmentation occurred before reaching the energy for conformation conversion. These observations, which were made on two different IM-MS instruments (SYNAPT G2 HDMS and high resolution multi-pass cyclic T-Wave prototype from Waters), limit the use of ion mobility for synthetic polymer topology interpretations to polymers where unique CCS values are observed for each DP at constant charge state. Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

Multiple Gas-Phase Conformations of a Synthetic Linear Poly(acrylamide) Polymer Observed Using Ion Mobility-Mass Spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haler, Jean R. N.; Far, Johann; Aqil, Abdelhafid; Claereboudt, Jan; Tomczyk, Nick; Giles, Kevin; Jérôme, Christine; De Pauw, Edwin

2017-08-01

Ion mobility-mass spectrometry (IM-MS) has emerged as a powerful separation and identification tool to characterize synthetic polymer mixtures and topologies (linear, cyclic, star-shaped,…). Electrospray coupled to IM-MS already revealed the coexistence of several charge state-dependent conformations for a single charge state of biomolecules with strong intramolecular interactions, even when limited resolving power IM-MS instruments were used. For synthetic polymers, the sample's polydispersity allows the observation of several chain lengths. A unique collision cross-section (CCS) trend is usually observed when increasing the degree of polymerization (DP) at constant charge state, allowing the deciphering of different polymer topologies. In this paper, we report multiple coexisting CCS trends when increasing the DP at constant charge state for linear poly(acrylamide) PAAm in the gas phase. This is similar to observations on peptides and proteins. Biomolecules show in addition population changes when collisionally heating the ions. In the case of synthetic PAAm, fragmentation occurred before reaching the energy for conformation conversion. These observations, which were made on two different IM-MS instruments (SYNAPT G2 HDMS and high resolution multi-pass cyclic T-Wave prototype from Waters), limit the use of ion mobility for synthetic polymer topology interpretations to polymers where unique CCS values are observed for each DP at constant charge state. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Stratospheric Ozone Trends and Variability as Seen by SCIAMACHY from 2002 to 2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gebhardt, C.; Rozanov, A.; Hommel, R.; Weber, M.; Bovensmann, H.; Burrows, J. P.; Degenstein, D.; Froidevaux, L.; Thompson, A. M.

2014-01-01

Vertical profiles of the rate of linear change (trend) in the altitude range 15-50 km are determined from decadal O3 time series obtained from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT measurements in limb-viewing geometry. The trends are calculated by using a multivariate linear regression. Seasonal variations, the quasi-biennial oscillation, signatures of the solar cycle and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation are accounted for in the regression. The time range of trend calculation is August 2002-April 2012. A focus for analysis are the zonal bands of 20 deg N - 20 deg S (tropics), 60 - 50 deg N, and 50 - 60 deg S (midlatitudes). In the tropics, positive trends of up to 5% per decade between 20 and 30 km and negative trends of up to 10% per decade between 30 and 38 km are identified. Positive O3 trends of around 5% per decade are found in the upper stratosphere in the tropics and at midlatitudes. Comparisons between SCIAMACHY and EOS MLS show reasonable agreement both in the tropics and at midlatitudes for most altitudes. In the tropics, measurements from OSIRIS/Odin and SHADOZ are also analysed. These yield rates of linear change of O3 similar to those from SCIAMACHY. However, the trends from SCIAMACHY near 34 km in the tropics are larger than MLS and OSIRIS by a factor of around two.

Linear regression analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics predicts a large increase in demand for elective hand surgery in England.

PubMed

Bebbington, Emily; Furniss, Dominic

2015-02-01

We integrated two factors, demographic population shifts and changes in prevalence of disease, to predict future trends in demand for hand surgery in England, to facilitate workforce planning. We analysed Hospital Episode Statistics data for Dupuytren's disease, carpal tunnel syndrome, cubital tunnel syndrome, and trigger finger from 1998 to 2011. Using linear regression, we estimated trends in both diagnosis and surgery until 2030. We integrated this regression with age specific population data from the Office for National Statistics in order to estimate how this will contribute to a change in workload over time. There has been a significant increase in both absolute numbers of diagnoses and surgery for all four conditions. Combined with future population data, we calculate that the total operative burden for these four conditions will increase from 87,582 in 2011 to 170,166 (95% confidence interval 144,517-195,353) in 2030. The prevalence of these diseases in the ageing population, and increasing prevalence of predisposing factors such as obesity and diabetes, may account for the predicted increase in workload. The most cost effective treatments must be sought, which requires high quality clinical trials. Our methodology can be applied to other sub-specialties to help anticipate the need for future service provision. Copyright © 2014 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Vegetation Trends Detected In Northern Canada Using Landsat Image Stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, R.; Olthof, I.; Carrière, M.; Deschamps, A.; Pouliot, D.

2011-12-01

Evidence of recent productivity increases in arctic vegetation comes from a variety of sources. At local scales, long-term plot measurements in North America are beginning to record increases in vascular plant cover and biomass. At landscape scales, expansion and densification of shrubs has been observed using repeat oblique photographs. Finally, continental-scale increases in vegetation "greenness" have been documented based on analysis of coarse resolution (≥ 1 km) NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery. In this study we investigated intermediate, regional-level changes occurring in tundra vegetation since 1984 using the Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite image archive. Four study areas averaging 13,619 km2 were located over widely distributed national parks in northern Canada (Ivvavik, Sirmilik, Torngat Mountains, and Wapusk). Time-series image stacks of 16-41 growing-season Landsat scenes from overlapping WRS-2 frames were acquired spanning periods of 17-25 years. Each pixel's unique temporal database of clear-sky values was then analyzed for trends in four indices (NDVI, Tasseled Cap Brightness, Greenness and Wetness) using robust linear regression. The trends were further related to changes in the fractional cover of functional vegetation types using regression tree models trained with plot data and high resolution (≤ 10 m) satellite imagery. We found all four study areas to have a larger proportion of significant (p<0.05) positive greenness trends (range 6.1-25.5%) by comparison to negative trends (range 0.3-4.1%). For the three study areas where regression tree models could be derived, consistent trends of increasing shrub or vascular fractional cover and decreasing bare cover were predicted. The Landsat-based observations were associated with warming trends in each park over the analysis periods. Many of the major changes observed could be corroborated using published studies or field observations.

Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Lifang; Wang, Lunche; Lai, Zhongping; Tian, Qing; Liu, Wen; Li, Jun

2017-11-01

The variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China during 1960-2015 were analysed using a linear regression (LR) analysis, a Mann-Kendall (MK) test with Sen's slope estimator and Sen's innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results showed that the annual maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased at the rate of 0.15°C/10yr, 0.23°C/10yr and 0.19°C/10yr, respectively, over the whole study area during 1960-2015. The warming magnitudes for the above variables during 1980-2015 were much higher than those during 1960-2015:0.38°C/10yr, 0.35°C/10yr and 0.36°C/10yr, respectively. The seasonal maximum, minimum and mean temperature significantly increased in the spring, autumn and winter seasons during 1960-2015. Although the summer temperatures also increased at some extent, only the minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend. Meanwhile, the highest rate of increase of seasonal mean temperature occurred in winter (0.24°C/10yr) during 1960-2015 and spring (0.50°C/10yr) during 1980-2015, which indicated that the significant warming trend for the whole YRB could be attributed to the remarkable temperature increases in winter and spring months. However, both the annual and seasonal warming magnitudes showed large regional differences, and a higher warming rate was detected in the eastern YRB and the western source region of the Yangtze River on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Additionally, annual precipitation increased by approximately 12.02 mm/10yr during 1960-2015 but decreased at the rate of 19.63 mm/10yr during 1980-2015. There were decreasing trends for precipitation in all four seasons since 1980 in the YRB, and a significant increasing trend was only detected in summer since 1960 (12.37 mm/10yr). Overall, a warming-wetting trend was detected in the south-eastern and north-western YRB, while there was a warming-drying trend in middle regions.

Longitudinal trends in serum ferritin levels and associated factors in a national incident hemodialysis cohort.

PubMed

Kim, Taehee; Rhee, Connie M; Streja, Elani; Obi, Yoshitsugu; Brunelli, Steven M; Kovesdy, Csaba P; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

2017-02-01

The rise in serum ferritin levels among US maintenance hemodialysis patients has been attributed to higher intravenous iron administration and other changes in practice. We examined ferritin trends over time in hemodialysis patients and whether iron utilization patterns and other factors [erythropoietin-stimulating agent (ESA) prescribing patterns, inflammatory markers] were associated with ferritin trajectory. In a 5-year (January 2007–December 2011) cohort of 81 864 incident US hemodialysis patients, we examined changes in ferritin averaged over 3-month intervals using linear mixed effects models adjusted for intravenous iron dose, malnutrition and inflammatory markers. We then examined ferritin trends across strata of baseline ferritin level, dialysis initiation year, cumulative iron and ESA use in the first dialysis year and baseline hemoglobin level. In models adjusted for iron dose, malnutrition and inflammation, mean ferritin levels increased over time in the overall cohort and across the three lower baseline ferritin strata. Among patients initiating dialysis in 2007, mean ferritin levels increased sharply in the first versus second year of dialysis and again abruptly increased in the fifth year independent of iron dose, malnutrition and inflammatory markers; similar trends were observed among patients who initiated dialysis in 2008 and 2009. In analyses stratified by cumulative iron use, mean ferritin increased among groups receiving iron, but decreased in the no iron group. In analyses stratified by cumulative ESA dose and baseline hemoglobin, mean ferritin increased over time. While ferritin trends correlated with patterns of iron use, increases in ferritin over time persisted independent of intravenous iron and ESA exposure, malnutrition and inflammation.

Noise Reduction of Ocean-Bottom Pressure Data Toward Real-Time Tsunami Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsushima, H.; Hino, R.

2008-12-01

We discuss a method of noise reduction of ocean-bottom pressure data to be fed into the near-field tsunami forecasting scheme proposed by Tsushima et al. [2008a]. In their scheme, the pressure data is processed in real time as follows: (1) removing ocean tide components by subtracting the sea-level variation computed from a theoretical tide model, (2) applying low-pass digital filter to remove high-frequency fluctuation due to seismic waves, and (3) removing DC-offset and linear-trend component to determine a baseline of relative sea level. However, it turns out this simple method is not always successful in extracting tsunami waveforms from the data, when the observed amplitude is ~1cm. For disaster mitigation, accurate forecasting of small tsunamis is important as well as large tsunamis. Since small tsunami events occur frequently, successful tsunami forecasting of those events are critical to obtain public reliance upon tsunami warnings. As a test case, we applied the data-processing described above to the bottom pressure records containing tsunami with amplitude less than 1 cm which was generated by the 2003 Off-Fukushima earthquake occurring in the Japan Trench subduction zone. The observed pressure variation due to the ocean tide is well explained by the calculated tide signals from NAO99Jb model [Matsumoto et al., 2000]. However, the tide components estimated by BAYTAP-G [Tamura et al., 1991] from the pressure data is more appropriate for predicting and removing the ocean tide signals. In the pressure data after removing the tide variations, there remain pressure fluctuations with frequencies ranging from about 0.1 to 1 mHz and with amplitudes around ~10 cm. These fluctuations distort the estimation of zero-level and linear trend to define relative sea-level variation, which is treated as tsunami waveform in the subsequent analysis. Since the linear trend is estimated from the data prior to the origin time of the earthquake, an artificial linear trend is produced in the processed waveform. This artificial linear trend degrades the accuracy of the tsunami forecasting, although the forecasting result is expected to be robust against the existence of short-period noise [Tsushima et al., 2008a]. Since the bottom pressure show gradual increase (or decrease) in the tsunami source region [Tsushima et al., 2008b], it is important to remove the linear trend not related to the tsunami generation from the data before fed into the analysis. Therefore, the reduction of the noise in sub-mHz band is critical for the forecasting small tsunamis. Applying a kind of frequency filters to eliminate this noise cannot be a solution for this problem because actual tsunami signals may also contain components of this frequency band. We investigate whether any statistical modelings of the noise are effective for reducing the sub-mHz noise.

Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohsin, Tanzina; Gough, William A.

2010-08-01

As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31-162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878-1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970-2000 and 1989-2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends.

The linear trend of headache prevalence and some headache features in school children.

PubMed

Ozge, Aynur; Buğdayci, Resul; Saşmaz, Tayyar; Kaleağasi, Hakan; Kurt, Oner; Karakelle, Ali; Siva, Aksel

2007-04-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the age and sex dependent linear trend of recurrent headache prevalence in schoolchildren in Mersin. A stratified sample composed of 5562 children; detailed characteristics were previously published. In this study the prevalence distribution of headache by age and sex showed a peak in the female population at the age of 11 (27.2%) with a plateau in the following years. The great stratified random sample results suggested that, in addition to socio-demographic features, detailed linear trend analysis showed headache features of children with headache have some specific characteristics dependent on age, gender and headache type. This study results can constitute a basis for the future epidemiological based studies.

Trends in MD/PhD Graduates Entering Psychiatry: Assessing the Physician-Scientist Pipeline.

PubMed

Arbuckle, Melissa R; Luo, Sean X; Pincus, Harold Alan; Gordon, Joshua A; Chung, Joyce Y; Chavez, Mark; Oquendo, Maria A

2018-06-01

The goal of this study was to identify trends in MD/PhD graduates entering psychiatry, to compare these trends with other specialties, and to review strategies for enhancing the physician-scientist pipeline. Data on 226,588 medical students graduating from Liaison Committee on Medical Education accredited programs between 1999 and 2012 (6626 MD/PhDs) were used to evaluate the number, percentage, and proportion of MD/PhDs entering psychiatry in comparison with other specialties (neurology, neurosurgery, internal medicine, family medicine, and radiation oncology). Linear regression and multiple linear regression determined whether these values increased over time and varied by sex. Over 14 years, an average of 18 MD/PhDs (range 13-29) enrolled in psychiatry each year. The number of MD/PhDs going into psychiatry significantly increased, although these gains were modest (less than one additional MD/PhD per year). The proportion of students entering psychiatry who were MD/PhDs varied between 2.9 and 5.9 per 100 residents, with no significant change over time. There was also no change in the percentage of MD/PhDs entering psychiatry from among all MD/PhD graduates. The rate of increase in the number of MD/PhDs going into psychiatry did not differ significantly from other specialties except for family medicine, which is decreasing. The rate of MD/PhDs going into psychiatry was higher for women, suggesting closure of the sex gap in 17 years. Despite the increase in the number of MD/PhDs entering psychiatry, these numbers remain low. Expanding the cohort of physician-scientists dedicated to translational research in psychiatry will require a multipronged approach.

Trend analysis of the Aerosol Optical Thickness and Ångström Exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2011-08-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) and Ångström Exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of Coarse- and Fine-mode dominant AOTs (CAOT and FAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström Exponent Difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation and (2) Number of Observations (NO) per month. Temporal increase of FAOTs prevails over regions dominated by emerging economy or slash-burn agriculture in East Asia and South Africa. On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FAOTs are detected over Western Europe and North America. Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CAOTs are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

PubMed

Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P

2014-01-01

Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Health transitions in sub-Saharan Africa: overview of mortality trends in children under 5 years old (1950-2000).

PubMed Central

Garenne, Michel; Gakusi, Enéas

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To reconstruct and analyse mortality trends in children younger than 5 years in sub-Saharan Africa between 1950 and 2000. METHODS: We selected 66 Demographic and Health Surveys and World Fertility Surveys from 32 African countries for analysis. Death rates were calculated by yearly periods for each survey. When several surveys were available for the same country, overlapping years were combined. Country-specific time series were analysed to identify periods of monotonic trends, whether declining, steady or increasing. We tested changes in trends using a linear logistic model. FINDINGS: A quarter of the countries studied had monotonic declining mortality trends: i.e. a smooth health transition. Another quarter had long-term declines with some minor rises over short periods of time. Eight countries had periods of major increases in mortality due to political or economic crises, and in seven countries mortality stopped declining for several years. In eight other countries mortality has risen in recent years as a result of paediatric AIDS. Reconstructed levels and trends were compared with other estimates made by international organizations, usually based on indirect methods. CONCLUSION: Overall, major progress in child survival was achieved in sub-Saharan Africa during the second half of the twentieth century. However, transition has occurred more slowly than expected, with an average decline of 1.8% per year. Additionally, transition was chaotic in many countries. The main causes of mortality increase were political instability, serious economic downturns, and emerging diseases. PMID:16799731

Mobility of large rock avalanches: evidence from Valles Marineris, Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

McEwen, A.S.

1989-01-01

Measurements of H/L (height of drop/length of runout) vs. volume for landslides in Valles Marineris on Mars show a trend of decreasing H/L with increasing volume. This trend, which is linear on a log-log plot, is parallel to but lies above the trend for terrestrial dry rock avalanches. This result and estimates of 104 to 105 Pa yield strength suggest that the landslides were not water saturated, as suggested by previous workers. The offset between the H/L vs. volume trends shows that a typical Martian avalanche must be nearly two orders of magnitude more voluminous than a typical terrestrial avalance in order to achieve the same mobility. This offset might be explained by the effects of gravity on flows with high yield strengths. These results should prove useful to future efforts to resolve the controversy over the mechanics of long-runout avalanches. -Author

Trends in incidence of primary brain cancer in New Zealand, 1995 to 2010.

PubMed

Kim, Stella J-H; Ioannides, Sally J; Elwood, J Mark

2015-04-01

Case-control studies have linked mobile phone use to an increased risk of glioma in the most exposed brain areas, the temporal and parietal lobes, although inconsistently. We examined time trends in the incidence rates of brain malignancies in New Zealand from 1995 to 2010. Data from the New Zealand Cancer Registry was used to calculate incidence rates of primary brain cancer, by age, gender, morphology and anatomical site. Log-linear regression analysis was used to assess trends in the annual incidence of primary brain cancer; annual percentage changes and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated. No consistent increases in all primary brain cancer, glioma, or temporal or parietal lobe glioma were seen. At ages 10-69, the incidence of all brain cancers declined significantly. Incidence of glioma increased at ages over 70. In New Zealand, there has been no consistent increase in incidence rates of primary brain cancers. An increase in glioma at ages over 70 is likely to be due to improvements in diagnosis. As with any such studies, a small effect, or one with a latent period of more than 10 to 15 years, cannot be excluded. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

PubMed

Crewe, Tara L; Taylor, Philip D; Lepage, Denis

2015-01-01

The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration) to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling) to reduce the probability that individuals will be detected on more than one occasion.

Version 8 SBUV Ozone Profile Trends Compared with Trends from a Zonally Averaged Chemical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfield, Joan E.; Frith, Stacey; Stolarski, Richard

2004-01-01

Linear regression trends for the years 1979-2003 were computed using the new Version 8 merged Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data set of ozone profiles. These trends were compared to trends computed using ozone profiles from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) zonally averaged coupled model. Observed and modeled annual trends between 50 N and 50 S were a maximum in the higher latitudes of the upper stratosphere, with southern hemisphere (SH) trends greater than northern hemisphere (NH) trends. The observed upper stratospheric maximum annual trend is -5.5 +/- 0.9 % per decade (1 sigma) at 47.5 S and -3.8 +/- 0.5 % per decade at 47.5 N, to be compared with the modeled trends of -4.5 +/- 0.3 % per decade in the SH and -4.0 +/- 0.2% per decade in the NH. Both observed and modeled trends are most negative in winter and least negative in summer, although the modeled seasonal difference is less than observed. Model trends are shown to be greatest in winter due to a repartitioning of chlorine species and the increasing abundance of chlorine with time. The model results show that trend differences can occur depending on whether ozone profiles are in mixing ratio or number density coordinates, and on whether they are recorded on pressure or altitude levels.

Recent Uptrend in Whole-Grain Intake Is Absent for Low-Income Adolescents, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2005–2012

PubMed Central

Leung, Cindy W.; Leak, Tashara M.; Laraia, Barbara A.

2017-01-01

Introduction Whole-grain consumption reduces risk of chronic disease, yet adolescents consume suboptimal amounts. It is unclear whether trends in consumption of whole grains have been positive among adolescents, and research assessing disparities by socioeconomic status is limited. The objective of our study was to evaluate recent trends in whole-grain consumption by US adolescents. Methods We examined data on 3,265 adolescents aged 13 to18 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2012. Intake of whole and refined grains was analyzed by using generalized linear models, and odds of no whole-grain intake were examined with logistic regression, adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic factors. We evaluated trends and examined heterogeneity of trends with respect to annual household income. Results Daily whole-grain consumption among adolescents increased overall by about a quarter-ounce–equivalent per day (oz-eq/d) (P trend <.001). We found a significant relationship between whole-grain intake and income. Daily whole grains (recommended as ≥3 oz-eq/d), increased (0.6 to 1.0 oz-eq/d) among high-income adolescents (P trend < .001) but remained at 0.5 oz-eq/d for low-income adolescents. The ratio of whole grains to total grains (recommended to be at least 50%) rose from 7.6% to 14.2% for high-income adolescents (P trend < .001), with no significant trend for the low-income group. Consumption of refined grains did not change. Odds of having no whole grains trended downward, but only for the high-income adolescents (P trend = .01). Conclusion These data show significant (albeit modest) trends toward increased intake of whole grains among high-income adolescents nationwide that are absent among low-income peers. Future interventions and policies should address barriers to whole-grain consumption among this vulnerable group. PMID:28682743

Recent Uptrend in Whole-Grain Intake Is Absent for Low-Income Adolescents, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2005-2012.

PubMed

Tester, June M; Leung, Cindy W; Leak, Tashara M; Laraia, Barbara A

2017-07-06

Whole-grain consumption reduces risk of chronic disease, yet adolescents consume suboptimal amounts. It is unclear whether trends in consumption of whole grains have been positive among adolescents, and research assessing disparities by socioeconomic status is limited. The objective of our study was to evaluate recent trends in whole-grain consumption by US adolescents. We examined data on 3,265 adolescents aged 13 to18 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2012. Intake of whole and refined grains was analyzed by using generalized linear models, and odds of no whole-grain intake were examined with logistic regression, adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic factors. We evaluated trends and examined heterogeneity of trends with respect to annual household income. Daily whole-grain consumption among adolescents increased overall by about a quarter-ounce-equivalent per day (oz-eq/d) (P trend <.001). We found a significant relationship between whole-grain intake and income. Daily whole grains (recommended as ≥3 oz-eq/d), increased (0.6 to 1.0 oz-eq/d) among high-income adolescents (P trend < .001) but remained at 0.5 oz-eq/d for low-income adolescents. The ratio of whole grains to total grains (recommended to be at least 50%) rose from 7.6% to 14.2% for high-income adolescents (P trend < .001), with no significant trend for the low-income group. Consumption of refined grains did not change. Odds of having no whole grains trended downward, but only for the high-income adolescents (P trend = .01). These data show significant (albeit modest) trends toward increased intake of whole grains among high-income adolescents nationwide that are absent among low-income peers. Future interventions and policies should address barriers to whole-grain consumption among this vulnerable group.

Observations of, and sources of the spatial and temporal variability of ozone in the middle atmosphere on climatological time scales (OZMAP) and equatorial dynamics: Seasonal variations of ozone trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entzian, G.; Grasnick, K. H.; Taubenheim, J.

1989-01-01

The long term trends (least square linear regression with time) of ozone content at seven European, seven North American, three Japanese and two tropical stations during 21 years (1964 to 1984) are analyzed. In all regions negative trends are observed during the 1970s, but are partly compensated by limited periods of positive trends during the late 1960s and late 1970s. Solely the North American ozone data show negative trends in all 10 year periods. When the long term ozone trends are evaluated for each month of the year separately, a seasonal variation is revealed, which in Europe and North America has largest negative trends in late winter and spring. While in Europe the negative trends in winter/spring are partly compensated by positive trends in summer, in North America the summer values reach only zero, retaining the significant negative trend in annual mean values. In contrast to the antarctic ozone hole, the spring reduction of ozone in Europe and in North America is associated with stratospheric temperatures increasing in the analyzed period and therefore is consistent with the major natural ozone production and loss processes.

Aerodynamic performance of high turning core turbine vanes in a two dimensional cascade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwab, J. R.

1982-01-01

Experimental and theoretical aerodynamic performance data are presented for four uncooled high turning core turbine vanes with exit angles of 74.9, 75.0, 77.5, and 79.6 degrees in a two dimensional cascade. Data for a more conservative 67.0 degree vane are included for comparison. Correction of the experimental aftermix kinetic energy losses to a common 0.100 centimeter trailing edge thickness yields a linear trend of increased loss from 0.020 to 0.025 as the vane exit angle increases from 67.0 to 79.6 degrees. The theoretical losses show a similar trend. The experimental and theoretical vane surface velocity distributions generally agree within approximately five percent, although the suction surface theoretical velocities are generally higher than the experimental velocities as the vane exit angle increases.

Cancer Mortality Among Men in Central Serbia: 1985-2006 Survey Study

PubMed Central

Marković-Denić, Ljiljana; Vlajinac, Hristina; Živković, Snežana; Miljuš, Dragan

2008-01-01

Aim To analyze cancer mortality trends in men in Central Serbia during 1985-2006 period. Methods Mortality rates and trends for the most frequent cancers in men (lung, stomach, colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancer) were calculated. Mortality rates for all cancers were adjusted by direct standardization. Percentage changes of the rates were calculated as the percentage difference between the rates of two successive years and then as a mean of these changes for the entire observed period. Trend lines were estimated using linear regression. Results Total cancer mortality in men increased, with mean percentage of annual changes being 1.53% (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.09-3.16). Lung, stomach, colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancers represented 58.1% and 61.6% of total cancer deaths in 1985 and 2006, respectively. Increasing trends were observed for all investigated cancers: mean annual percentage change for lung cancer was 2.31%(95% CI, 1.03-3.59), for colorectal cancer 2.23% (95% CI, -0.18-4.65), for prostate cancer 3.06% (95% CI, -2.07-8.18), and for pancreatic cancer 1.58% (95% CI, -2.17-5.32). Stomach cancer mortality significantly decreased in age groups 40-49 and 50-59 years. Conclusion The most frequent cancers in men in Central Serbia, ie, lung, colorectal, prostate, and pancreatic cancer, showed an increasing trend. Only stomach cancer mortality decreased over time. PMID:19090604

Long-term warming trends in Korea and contribution of urbanization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, B.; Min, S. K.; Kim, Y. H.; Kim, M. K.; Choi, Y.; Boo, K. O.

2016-12-01

This study provides a systematic investigation of the long-term temperature trends over Korean peninsula in comparison with global temperature trends and presents an updated assessment of the contribution of urban effect. Linear trends are analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider inhomogeneity due to changes in number of stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014, 6 stations), 61 years (1954-2014, 12 stations) and 42 years (1973-2014, 48 stations). HadCRUT4, MLOST and GISS datasets are used to obtain temperature trends in global mean and each country scales for the same periods. The temperature over South Korea has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during 103, 61, and 42 years, respectively. This is equivalent to 1.4-2.6 times larger warming than the global mean trends. The countries located in the Northern mid latitudes exhibit slightly weaker warming trends to Korea (about 1.5 times stronger than of global means), suggesting a considerable impact of urbanization on the local warming over Korea. Updated analyses of the urbanization effect on temperature trends over South Korea suggest that 10-45% of the warming trends are due to urbanization effect, with stronger contributions during the recent decades. First, we compared the recent 42-year temperature trends between city and rural stations using the two approaches based on previous studies. Results show that urbanization effect has contributed to 30-45% of the temperature trends. Secondly, the contribution of urbanization to the temperature increase over Korea has been indirectly estimated using 56 ensemble members of 20CRv2 reanalysis data that include no influence of urbanization. Analysis results for the three periods indicate that urbanization effect could have contributed to the local warming over Korea by 10-25%.

Changes in initial expenditures for benign prostatic hyperplasia evaluation in the Medicare population: a comparison to overall Medicare inflation.

PubMed

Bellinger, Adam S; Elliott, Sean P; Yang, Liu; Wei, John T; Saigal, Christopher S; Smith, Alexandria; Wilt, Timothy J; Strope, Seth A

2012-05-01

Benign prostatic hyperplasia creates significant expenses for the Medicare program. We determined expenditure trends for benign prostatic hyperplasia evaluative testing after urologist consultation and placed these trends in the context of overall Medicare expenditures. Using a 5% national sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2000 to 2007 we developed a cohort of 40,253 with claims for new visits to urologists for diagnoses consistent with symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia. We assessed trends in initial inflation and geography adjusted expenditures within 12 months of diagnosis by evaluative test categories derived from the 2003 American Urological Association guideline on the management of benign prostatic hyperplasia. Using governmental reports on Medicare expenditure trends for benign prostatic hyperplasia we compared expenditures to overall and imaging specific Medicare expenditures. Comparisons were assessed by the Z-test and regression analysis for linear trends, as appropriate. Between 2000 and 2007 inflation adjusted total Medicare expenditures per patient for the initial evaluation of patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia seen by urologists increased from $255.44 to $343.98 (p <0.0001). Benign prostatic hyperplasia related imaging increases were significantly less than overall Medicare imaging expenditure increases (55% vs 104%, p <0.001). The increase in per patient expenditures for benign prostatic hyperplasia was significantly lower than the increase in overall Medicare expenditures per enrollee (35% vs 45%, p = 0.0015). From 2000 to 2007 inflation adjusted expenditures increased for benign prostatic hyperplasia related evaluations. This growth was slower than the overall growth in Medicare expenditures. The increase in BPH related imaging expenditures was restrained compared to that of the Medicare program as a whole. Copyright © 2012 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increase in breast cancer incidence among older women in Mumbai: 30-year trends and predictions to 2025.

PubMed

Dikshit, Rajesh P; Yeole, B B; Nagrani, Rajini; Dhillon, P; Badwe, R; Bray, Freddie

2012-08-01

Increasing trends in the incidence of breast cancer have been observed in India, including Mumbai. These have likely stemmed from an increasing adoption of lifestyle factors more akin to those commonly observed in westernized countries. Analyses of breast cancer trends and corresponding estimation of the future burden are necessary to better plan rationale cancer control programmes within the country. We used data from the population-based Mumbai Cancer Registry to study time trends in breast cancer incidence rates 1976-2005 and stratified them according to younger (25-49) and older age group (50-74). Age-period-cohort models were fitted and the net drift used as a measure of the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Age-period-cohort models and population projections were used to predict the age-adjusted rates and number of breast cancer cases circa 2025. Breast cancer incidence increased significantly among older women over three decades (EAPC = 1.6%; 95% CI 1.1-2.0), while lesser but significant 1% increase in incidence among younger women was observed (EAPC = 1.0; 95% CI 0.2-1.8). Non-linear period and cohort effects were observed; a trends-based model predicted a close-to-doubling of incident cases by 2025 from 1300 mean cases per annum in 2001-2005 to over 2500 cases in 2021-2025. The incidence of breast cancer has increased in Mumbai during last two to three decades, with increases greater among older women. The number of breast cancer cases is predicted to double to over 2500 cases, the vast majority affecting older women. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Publications Over the Past 16 Years.

PubMed

Mimouni, Michael; Cismariu-Potash, Keren; Ratmansky, Motti; Shaklai, Sharon; Amir, Hagay; Mimouni-Bloch, Aviva

2016-06-01

To test the hypothesis that the number of publications in the field of physical medicine and rehabilitation (PMR) has increased over the last 16 years in a linear fashion, and to compare the trends in publication between the pediatric and adult literature. We evaluated all MEDLINE articles from January 1, 1998, to December 31, 2013, using Medical Subject Headings categories of rehabilitation. An age filter separated adult and pediatric articles. We divided articles into those with a low level of scientific evidence such as letters and editorials, and those with a high level of evidence such as controlled trials and meta-analyses. We used regression analysis to evaluate the effect of the year of publication on the number of publications of each type. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. Not applicable. MEDLINE reported a total of 98,501 adult publications and 30,895 pediatric publications during the evaluated period. There was a significant linear increase in the total number of publications in adult and pediatric rehabilitation publications with multiplication factors of 3.3 and 2.9, respectively. Importantly, publications with a high level of evidence showed larger multiplication factors compared with those with a low level of evidence (5.5 and 5.1 vs 2.1 and 2.0) for the adult and pediatric literature. The number of publications in the PMR field, especially those with a high level of scientific evidence, has increased linearly over the years, reflecting the rapid evolution of both adult and pediatric PMR. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Statistical Models for Analyzing Wheat Yield Time Series

PubMed Central

Michel, Lucie; Makowski, David

2013-01-01

The world's population is predicted to exceed nine billion by 2050 and there is increasing concern about the capability of agriculture to feed such a large population. Foresight studies on food security are frequently based on crop yield trends estimated from yield time series provided by national and regional statistical agencies. Various types of statistical models have been proposed for the analysis of yield time series, but the predictive performances of these models have not yet been evaluated in detail. In this study, we present eight statistical models for analyzing yield time series and compare their ability to predict wheat yield at the national and regional scales, using data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and by the French Ministry of Agriculture. The Holt-Winters and dynamic linear models performed equally well, giving the most accurate predictions of wheat yield. However, dynamic linear models have two advantages over Holt-Winters models: they can be used to reconstruct past yield trends retrospectively and to analyze uncertainty. The results obtained with dynamic linear models indicated a stagnation of wheat yields in many countries, but the estimated rate of increase of wheat yield remained above 0.06 t ha−1 year−1 in several countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and America, and the estimated values were highly uncertain for several major wheat producing countries. The rate of yield increase differed considerably between French regions, suggesting that efforts to identify the main causes of yield stagnation should focus on a subnational scale. PMID:24205280

Secular trends in the prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity across Australian states: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ho, Ngoc-Thuy-Vi Sophia; Olds, Tim; Schranz, Natasha; Maher, Carol

2017-05-01

To describe secular trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Australian children in each state and territory. Systematic search and numerical meta-analysis. A systematic search was conducted to identify all sources that objectively measured the height and weight of Australian children (aged 2-18 years) and had a sample size of at least 300. Raw and summary data were requested from authors and divided into age×sex×state×yearly slices to derive estimates of the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Following a double arcsine transformation to facilitate meta-analysis, all estimates were standardised for age, stratified by sex and analysed using sample-weighted non-linear regressions. The systematic search identified 73 eligible sources (47 raw and 26 summary datasets), with 72.8% of data sourced from Victoria and South Australia. Prevalence trends varied from state to state, with three states or territories showing a marked plateau, two showing a decline in the more recent years and three showing continued linear increases. Tasmania and Northern Territory generally had the highest prevalence (30.2% and 24.3% overweight and obesity respectively), and the Australian Capital Territory had the lowest (12.4% overweight and obesity). Prevalence, as well as prevalence trends, varied amongst Australian states and territories. At a national level, the prevalence trend has nearly plateaued for the past 15 years. However, upward prevalence trends appear to be persisting in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. Findings highlight the need for ongoing efforts to address the issue of childhood obesity. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variations of global gravity waves derived from 14 years of SABER temperature observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiao; Yue, Jia; Xu, Jiyao; Garcia, Rolando R.; Russell, James M.; Mlynczak, Martin; Wu, Dong L.; Nakamura, Takuji

2017-06-01

The global gravity wave (GW) potential energy (PE) per unit mass is derived from SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) temperature profiles over the past 14 years (2002-2015). Since the SABER data cover longer than one solar cycle, multivariate linear regression is applied to calculate the trend (means linear trend from 2002 to 2015) of global GW PE and the responses of global GW PE to solar activity, to QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) and to ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). We find a significant positive trend of GW PE at around 50°N during July from 2002 to 2015, in agreement with ground-based radar observations at a similar latitude but from 1990 to 2010. Both the monthly and the deseasonalized trends of GW PE are significant near 50°S. Specifically, the deseasonalized trend of GW PE has a positive peak of 12-15% per decade at 40°S-50°S and below 60 km, which suggests that eddy diffusion is increasing in some places. A significant positive trend of GW PE near 50°S could be due to the strengthening of the polar stratospheric jets, as documented from Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications wind data. The response of GW PE to solar activity is negative in the lower and middle latitudes. The response of GW PE to QBO (as indicated by 30 hPa zonal winds over the equator) is negative in the tropical upper stratosphere and extends to higher latitudes at higher altitudes. The response of GW PE to ENSO (as indicated by the Multivariate ENSO Index) is positive in the tropical upper stratosphere.

Porosity-depth trends of carbonate deposits along the northwest shelf of Australia (IODP Expedition 356)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eun Young; Kominz, Michelle; Reuning, Lars; Takayanagi, Hideko; Knierzinger, Wolfgang; Wagreich, Michael; Expedition 356 shipboard scientists, IODP

2017-04-01

The northwest shelf (NWS) of Australia extends from northern tropical to southern temperate latitudes situated offshore from the low-moderate-relief and semi-arid Australian continent. The shelf environment is dominated throughout by carbonate sedimentation with warm-water and tropical carbonate deposits, connected to the long-term northward drift of Australia bringing the NWS into tropical latitudes. IODP expedition 356 cored seven sites (U1458-U1464) covering a latitudinal range of 29°S-18°S off the NWS. This study focuses on porosity-depth trends of the Miocene - Pleistocene carbonate sediment on the NWS. The NWS is an ideal area to study regional (and furthermore general) carbonate porosity-depth relationships, because it contains a nearly continuous sequence of carbonate sediment ranging in depth from the surface to about 1,100m and in age from Pleistocene to Miocene. Porosity-depth trends of sedimentary rocks are generally controlled by a variety of factors which govern the rates of porosity loss due to mechanical compaction and of porosity loss (or gain) due to chemical processes during diagenesis. This study derives porosity data from Moisture and Density (MAD) technique conducted during IODP Expedition 356. MAD samples were collected from packstone (44%), wackestone (27%), mudstone (15%) and grainstone (7%), with the rest from floatstone, rudstone, dolostone, sandstone and other subordinate lithologies. To understand porosity-depth trends, the porosity data are arranged both exponentially and linearly, and correlated with age models and lithologic descriptions provided by IODP shipboard scientists. Porosity(%)-depth(m) trends of all the porosity data are Porosity=52e-0.0008/Depth (exponential) and Porosity=-0.03Depth+52 (linear). Porosities near surface and in the deepest parts of each well are least well represented by these trend lines. Porosity values of Pleistocene sediment are generally higher than those of Miocene - Pliocene sediment. The initial porosity in porosity-depth trends increases from 52% to 57% with increasing mud content from grainstone to packstone, wackestone, and mudstone. Carbonate sediment that includes non-skeletal grains usually has lower porosity values than the trend lines. *This research was a part of the project titled 'International Ocean Discovery Program', funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, Korea.

Dynamics of intense rainfalls in the southern half of European Russia for the period 1960-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chizhikova, N.

2018-01-01

Two time periods (1960-1986 and 1986-2015) were compared in terms of mean annual frequency and mean annual sum of warm season rainfalls to quantify general trends in the changing regime of heavy precipitation over the southern part of European Russia, which is the area of the most intensive agricultural activity. The identified trends were compared with the published assessment of the intensity trends of soil erosion processes. The prevalence of the increasing tendency in the frequency and amount of precipitation is demonstrated, which undergoes against a decrease in the rate of eroded sediment accumulation and against a decrease of linear growth rate of gullies. This result rather proves the crucial contribution of the snowmelt to the soil erosion over the studied area.

Uncertainty in detecting trend: a new criterion and its applications to global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-10-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Uncertainty in Detecting Trend: A New Criterion and Its Applications to Global SST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao

2017-04-01

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.

Trends in hospital admissions and surgical procedures for degenerative lumbar spine disease in England: a 15-year time-series study.

PubMed

Sivasubramaniam, Vinothan; Patel, Hitesh C; Ozdemir, Baris A; Papadopoulos, Marios C

2015-12-15

Low back pain (LBP), from degenerative lumbar spine disease, represents a significant burden on healthcare resources. Studies worldwide report trends attributable to their country's specific demographics and healthcare system. Considering England's specific medico-socioeconomic conditions, we investigate recent trends in hospital admissions and procedures for LBP, and discuss the implications for the allocation of healthcare resources. Retrospective cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics data relating to degenerative lumbar spine disease in England, between 1999 and 2013. Regression models were used to analyse trends. Trends in the number of admissions and procedures for LBP, mean patient age, gender and length of stay. Hospital admissions and procedures have increased significantly over the study period, from 127.09 to 216.16 and from 24.5 to 48.83 per 100,000, respectively, (p<0.001). The increase was most marked in the oldest age groups with a 1.9 and 2.33-fold increase in admissions for patients aged 60-74 and ≥ 75 years, respectively, and a 2.8-fold increase in procedures for those aged ≥ 60 years. Trends in hospital admissions were characterised by a widening gender gap, increasing mean patient age, and decreasing mean hospital stay (p<0.001). Trends in procedures were characterised by a narrowing gender gap, increasing mean patient age (p=0.014) and decreasing mean hospital stay (p<0.001). Linear regression models estimate that each hospital admission translates to 0.27 procedures, per 100,000 (95% CI 0.25 to 0.30, r 0.99, p<0.001; r, Pearson's correlation coefficient). Hospital admissions are increasing at 3.5 times the rate of surgical procedures (regression gradient 7.63 vs 2.18 per 100,000/year). LBP represents a significant and increasing workload for hospitals in England. These trends demonstrate an increasing demand for specialists involved in the surgical and non-surgical management of this disease, and highlight the need for services capable of dealing with the increased comorbidity burden associated with an ageing patient group. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Complex messages regarding a thin ideal appearing in teenage girls' magazines from 1956 to 2005.

PubMed

Luff, Gina M; Gray, James J

2009-03-01

Seventeen and YM were assessed from 1956 through 2005 (n=312) to examine changes in the messages about thinness sent to teenage women. Trends were analyzed through an investigation of written, internal content focused on dieting, exercise, or both, while cover models were examined to explore fluctuations in body size. Pearson's Product correlations and weighted-least squares linear regression models were used to demonstrate changes over time. The frequency of written content related to exercise and combined plans increased in Seventeen, while a curvilinear relationship between time and content relating to dieting appeared. YM showed a linear increase in content related to dieting, exercise, and combined plans. Average cover model body size increased over time in YM while demonstrating no significant changes in Seventeen. Overall, more written messages about dieting and exercise appeared in teen's magazines in 2005 than before while the average cover model body size increased.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Streamflow droughts in major watershed regions of the conterminous U.S.: Understanding evolution of historic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pournasiri Poshtiri, M.; Pal, I.

2015-12-01

Climate non-stationarity affects regional hydrological extremes. This research looks into historic patterns of streamflow drought indicators and their evolution for major watershed regions in the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The results indicate general linear and non-linear drying trends, particularly in the last four decades, as opposed to wetting trends reported in previous studies. Regional differences in the trends are notable, and echo the local climatic changes documented in the recent National Climate Assessment (NCA). A reversal of linear trends is seen for some northern regions after 1980s. Patterns in return periods and corresponding return values of the indicators are also examined, which suggests changing risk conditions that are important for water-resources decision-making. Persistent or flash drought conditions in a river can lead to chronic or short-term water scarcity—a main driver of societal and cross-boundary conflicts. Thus, this research identifies "hotspot" locations where suitable adaptive management measures are most needed.

Trend analysis of the long-term Swiss ozone measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Bader, Juerg; Gelpke, Verena

1994-01-01

Trend analyses, assuming a linear trend which started at 1970, were performed from total ozone measurements from Arosa (Switzerland, 1926-1991). Decreases in monthly mean values were statistically significant for October through April showing decreases of about 2.0-4 percent per decade. For the period 1947-91, total ozone trends were further investigated using a multiple regression model. Temperature of a mountain peak in Switzerland (Mt. Santis), the F10.7 solar flux series, the QBO series (quasi biennial oscillation), and the southern oscillation index (SOI) were included as explanatory variables. Trends in the monthly mean values were statistically significant for December through April. The same multiple regression model was applied to investigate the ozone trends at various altitudes using the ozone balloon soundings from Payerne (1967-1989) and the Umkehr measurements from Arosa (1947-1989). The results show four different vertical trend regimes: On a relative scale changes were largest in the troposphere (increase of about 10 percent per decade). On an absolute scale the largest trends were obtained in the lower stratosphere (decrease of approximately 6 per decade at an altitude of about 18 to 22 km). No significant trends were observed at approximately 30 km, whereas stratospheric ozone decreased in the upper stratosphere.

Race/ethnicity and marijuana use in the United States: Diminishing differences in the prevalence of use, 2006-2015.

PubMed

Keyes, Katherine M; Wall, Melanie; Feng, Tianshu; Cerdá, Magdalena; Hasin, Deborah S

2017-10-01

Marijuana use has been decreasing in the past several years among adolescents, though variation in the extent and rate of decrease across racial/ethnic groups is inadequately understood. The present study utilized nationally-representative data in Monitoring the Future from 2006 to 2015 to examine trends over time in past 30-day marijuana use. We examine whether differences in trends over time by race and ethnicity also differ by individual-level, school-level, and state-level factors. Sample included 131,351 8th grade students, 137,249 10th grade students, and 123,293 12th grade students; multi-level models and difference-in-differences tests were used. In 10th grade, Black students had a positive linear increase in marijuana use (est=0.04, SE=0.01, p<0.001), and the magnitude of the increase was significantly greater than among non-Hispanic White students (est=0.38, SE=0.009, p<0.001). The increase trend among Black students was greater among those in large class sizes. In 12th grade, all racial ethnic groups except non-Hispanic Whites demonstrated a linear increase in prevalence across time. The magnitude of the increase among Hispanic students was greater among those in urban areas and large class sizes. The magnitude of the increase among Black students was greater in states with a medical marijuana law before 2006 (est=0.06, SE=0.03, p=0.02), among other state-level covariates. Together these results suggest that the next stage of public health approaches to reducing the harms associated with adolescent drug use should attend to shifting demographic patterns of use among adolescents and ensure that services and programmatic approaches to adolescent prevention are applied equitably. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Know your market: use of online query tools to quantify trends in patient information-seeking behavior for varicose vein treatment.

PubMed

Harsha, Asheesh K; Schmitt, J Eric; Stavropoulos, S William

2014-01-01

To analyze Internet search data to characterize the temporal and geographic interest of Internet users in the United States in varicose vein treatment. From January 1, 2004, to September 1, 2012, the Google Trends tool was used to analyze query data for "varicose vein treatment" to identify individuals seeking treatment information for varicose veins. The term "varicose vein treatment" returned a search volume index (SVI), representing the search frequency relative to the total search volume during a specific time interval and region. Linear regression analysis and Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance were employed to characterize search results. Search traffic for varicose vein treatment increased by 520% over the 104-month study period. There was an annual mean increase of 28% (range, -18%-100%; standard deviation [SD], 35%), with a statistically significant linear increase in average yearly SVI over time (R(2) = 0.94, P < .0001). All years showed positive growth in mean SVI except for 2008 (18% decrease). There were statistically significant differences in SVI by month (Kruskal-Wallis, P < .0001) with significantly higher mean SVI compared with other months in May (190% increase; range, 26%-670%; SD, 15%) and June (209% increase; range, 35%-700%; SD, 20%). The southern United States showed significantly higher search traffic than all other regions (Tukey-Kramer, P < .00001). There have been significant increases in Internet search traffic related to varicose vein treatment in the past 8 years. Reflected in this trend is an annual peak in search traffic in the late spring months with an overall geographic bias toward southern states. Rigorous analysis of Internet search queries for medical procedures may prove useful to guide the efficient use of limited resources and marketing dollars. © 2013 The Society of Interventional Radiology Published by SIR All rights reserved.

Detecting temporal change in freshwater fisheries surveys: statistical power and the important linkages between management questions and monitoring objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Irwin, Brian J.; James R. Bence,; Daniel B. Hayes,

2016-01-01

Monitoring to detect temporal trends in biological and habitat indices is a critical component of fisheries management. Thus, it is important that management objectives are linked to monitoring objectives. This linkage requires a definition of what constitutes a management-relevant “temporal trend.” It is also important to develop expectations for the amount of time required to detect a trend (i.e., statistical power) and for choosing an appropriate statistical model for analysis. We provide an overview of temporal trends commonly encountered in fisheries management, review published studies that evaluated statistical power of long-term trend detection, and illustrate dynamic linear models in a Bayesian context, as an additional analytical approach focused on shorter term change. We show that monitoring programs generally have low statistical power for detecting linear temporal trends and argue that often management should be focused on different definitions of trends, some of which can be better addressed by alternative analytical approaches.

Improving resident performance on standardized assessments of medical knowledge: a retrospective analysis of interventions correlated to American Board of Surgery In-Service Training Examination performance.

PubMed

Buckley, Elaine Jayne; Markwell, Stephen; Farr, Debb; Sanfey, Hilary; Mellinger, John

2015-10-01

American Board of Surgery In-Service Training Examination (ABSITE) scores are used to assess individual progress and predict board pass rates. We reviewed strategies to enhance ABSITE performance and their impact within a surgery residency. Several interventions were introduced from 2010 to 2014. A retrospective review was undertaken evaluating these and correlating them to ABSITE performance. Analyses of variance and linear trends were performed for ABSITE, United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLEs), mock oral, and mock ABSITE scores followed by post hoc analyses if significant. Results were correlated with core curricular changes. ABSITE mean percentile increased 34% in 4 years with significant performance improvement and increasing linear trends in postgraduate year (PGY)1 and PGY4 ABSITE scores. Mock ABSITE introduction correlated to significant improvement in ABSITE scores for PGY4 and PGY5. Mock oral introduction correlated with significant improvement in PGY1 and PGY3. Our study demonstrates an improvement in mean program ABSITE percentiles correlating with multiple interventions. Similar strategies may be useful for other programs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Two-warehouse partial backlogging inventory model for deteriorating items with linear trend in demand under inflationary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaggi, Chandra K.; Khanna, Aditi; Verma, Priyanka

2011-07-01

In today's business transactions, there are various reasons, namely, bulk purchase discounts, re-ordering costs, seasonality of products, inflation induced demand, etc., which force the buyer to order more than the warehouse capacity. Such situations call for additional storage space to store the excess units purchased. This additional storage space is typically a rented warehouse. Inflation plays a very interesting and significant role here: It increases the cost of goods. To safeguard from the rising prices, during the inflation regime, the organisation prefers to keep a higher inventory, thereby increasing the aggregate demand. This additional inventory needs additional storage space, which is facilitated by a rented warehouse. Ignoring the effects of the time value of money and inflation might yield misleading results. In this study, a two-warehouse inventory model with linear trend in demand under inflationary conditions having different rates of deterioration has been developed. Shortages at the owned warehouse are also allowed subject to partial backlogging. The solution methodology provided in the model helps to decide on the feasibility of renting a warehouse. Finally, findings have been illustrated with the help of numerical examples. Comprehensive sensitivity analysis has also been provided.

Phytoextraction of HG by parsley (Petroselinum crispum) and its growth responses.

PubMed

Bibi, Asma; Farooq, Umar; Naz, Sadia; Khan, Afsar; Khan, Sara; Sarwar, Rizwana; Mahmood, Qaisar; Alam, Arif; Mirza, Nosheen

2016-01-01

The effect of mercury (Hg) on the growth and survival of parsley (Petroselinum crispum) was explored at various treatments. The plants were grown in pots having Hoagland's solution to which various Hg treatments were applied and placed under greenhouse conditions. The treatments were: no metal applied (control) and six doses of Hg as mercuric chloride for 15 days. Linear trend of Hg accumulation was noted in roots, stems, and leaves with increasing Hg treatments. The maximum Hg concentration in root, stem and leaf was 8.92, 8.27, and 7.88 at Hg treatments of 25 mg l(-1), respectively. On the whole, Hg accumulation in different plant parts was in the following order: leaves > stem > roots. Linear trend was also observed for Bioaccumulation Factor (BF) and Translocation Factor (TF) with increasing Hg concentrations in the growth medium. The highest respective BFHg and TFHg values were 9.32 and 2.02 for the Hg treatments of 25 and 50 mg l(-1). In spite of the reduced growth in the presence of Hg, the plant has phytoremediation potential. It is recommended that parsley should not be cultivated in Hg contaminated sites in order to avoid dietary toxicity.

Obesity and severe obesity forecasts through 2030.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Eric A; Khavjou, Olga A; Thompson, Hope; Trogdon, Justin G; Pan, Liping; Sherry, Bettylou; Dietz, William

2012-06-01

Previous efforts to forecast future trends in obesity applied linear forecasts assuming that the rise in obesity would continue unabated. However, evidence suggests that obesity prevalence may be leveling off. This study presents estimates of adult obesity and severe obesity prevalence through 2030 based on nonlinear regression models. The forecasted results are then used to simulate the savings that could be achieved through modestly successful obesity prevention efforts. The study was conducted in 2009-2010 and used data from the 1990 through 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The analysis sample included nonpregnant adults aged ≥ 18 years. The individual-level BRFSS variables were supplemented with state-level variables from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association, and the Census of Retail Trade. Future obesity and severe obesity prevalence were estimated through regression modeling by projecting trends in explanatory variables expected to influence obesity prevalence. Linear time trend forecasts suggest that by 2030, 51% of the population will be obese. The model estimates a much lower obesity prevalence of 42% and severe obesity prevalence of 11%. If obesity were to remain at 2010 levels, the combined savings in medical expenditures over the next 2 decades would be $549.5 billion. The study estimates a 33% increase in obesity prevalence and a 130% increase in severe obesity prevalence over the next 2 decades. If these forecasts prove accurate, this will further hinder efforts for healthcare cost containment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in HIV infection surveillance data among men who have sex with men in Norway, 1995-2011

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Recent reports on the growing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the EU/EEA area were accompanied by an increase of reported HIV among MSM in Oslo, Norway in 2003. Our study with data from 1995 to 2011 has described the recent trends of HIV among MSM in Norway and their socio-demographic and epidemiological characteristics. Methods The data were collected from the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases. Cases were described by age, place of infection, clinical presentation of HIV infection, STI co-infection and source partner. We used simple linear regression to estimate trends over time. Results During the study period, 991 MSM, aged from 16 to 80 years, were newly diagnosed with HIV. No significant trends over time in overall median age (36 years) were observed. Most of the MSM (505, 51%) were infected in Oslo. In the years 1995-2002, 30 to 45 MSM were diagnosed with HIV each year, while in the years 2003-2011 this increased to between 56 and 97 cases. The proportion of MSM, presenting with either AIDS or HIV illness, decreased over time, while asymptomatic and acute HIV illness increased (p for trend=0.034 or less). STI co-infection was reported in 133 (13%) cases. An overall increase of syphilis co-infected cases was observed (p for trend <0.001). A casual partner was a source of infection in 590 cases (60%). Conclusions Though the increases described could be attributed to earlier testing and diagnosis, no change in the median age of cases was observed. This indicates that it is likely that there has been an increase in HIV infections among MSM in Norway since 2003. The simultaneous increase in STI co-infections indicates risky sexual behaviour and a potential to spread both HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. PMID:23414557

Long Term Precipitation Pattern Identification and Derivation of Non Linear Precipitation Trend in a Catchment using Singular Spectrum Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, Poornima; Jothiprakash, Vinayakam

2017-04-01

Precipitation is the major component in the hydrologic cycle. Awareness of not only the total amount of rainfall pertaining to a catchment, but also the pattern of its spatial and temporal distribution are equally important in the management of water resources systems in an efficient way. Trend is the long term direction of a time series; it determines the overall pattern of a time series. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a time series analysis technique that decomposes the time series into small components (eigen triples). This property of the method of SSA has been utilized to extract the trend component of the rainfall time series. In order to derive trend from the rainfall time series, we need to select components corresponding to trend from the eigen triples. For this purpose, periodogram analysis of the eigen triples have been proposed to be coupled with SSA, in the present study. In the study, seasonal data of England and Wales Precipitation (EWP) for a time period of 1766-2013 have been analyzed and non linear trend have been derived out of the precipitation data. In order to compare the performance of SSA in deriving trend component, Mann Kendall (MK) test is also used to detect trends in EWP seasonal series and the results have been compared. The result showed that the MK test could detect the presence of positive or negative trend for a significance level, whereas the proposed methodology of SSA could extract the non-linear trend present in the rainfall series along with its shape. We will discuss further the comparison of both the methodologies along with the results in the presentation.

The effect of welding parameters on penetration in GTA welds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shirali, A.A.; Mills, K.C.

1993-07-01

The effect of various welding parameters on the penetration of GTA welds has been investigated. Increases in welding speed were found to reduce penetration; however, increases in welding current were observed to increase the penetration in high sulfur (HS) casts and decrease penetration in low sulfur (LS) steels. Plots of penetration as a function of increasing linear energy (the heat supplied per unit length of weld) revealed a similar trend with increased penetration in HS casts, but the penetration in LS casts was unaffected by increases in linear energy. These results support the Burgardt-Heiple proposition that changes in welding parametersmore » on penetration can be explained in terms of their effect, sequentially, on the temperature gradient and the Marangoni forces operating in the weld pool. Increases in arc length were found to decrease weld penetration regardless of the sulfur concentration of the steel, and the effects of electrode geometry and welding position on weld penetration were also investigated.« less

Observed changes in relative humidity and dew point temperature in coastal regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P.; Sabziparvar, A. A.; Tabari, Hossein

2012-12-01

The analysis of trends in hydroclimatic parameters and assessment of their statistical significance have recently received a great concern to clarify whether or not there is an obvious climate change. In the current study, parametric linear regression and nonparametric Mann-Kendall tests were applied for detecting annual and seasonal trends in the relative humidity (RH) and dew point temperature ( T dew) time series at ten coastal weather stations in Iran during 1966-2005. The serial structure of the data was considered, and the significant serial correlations were eliminated using the trend-free pre-whitening method. The results showed that annual RH increased by 1.03 and 0.28 %/decade at the northern and southern coastal regions of the country, respectively, while annual T dew increased by 0.29 and 0.15°C per decade at the northern and southern regions, respectively. The significant trends were frequent in the T dew series, but they were observed only at 2 out of the 50 RH series. The results showed that the difference between the results of the parametric and nonparametric tests was small, although the parametric test detected larger significant trends in the RH and T dew time series. Furthermore, the differences between the results of the trend tests were not related to the normality of the statistical distribution.

Trends in evaporation of a large subtropical lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Cheng; Wang, Yongwei; Wang, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Piao, Meihua; Xiao, Wei; Lee, Xuhui

2017-07-01

How rising temperature and changing solar radiation affect evaporation of natural water bodies remains poor understood. In this study, evaporation from Lake Taihu, a large (area 2400 km2) freshwater lake in the Yangtze River Delta, China, was simulated by the CLM4-LISSS offline lake model and estimated with pan evaporation data. Both methods were calibrated against lake evaporation measured directly with eddy covariance in 2012. Results show a significant increasing trend of annual lake evaporation from 1979 to 2013, at a rate of 29.6 mm decade-1 according to the lake model and 25.4 mm decade-1 according to the pan method. The mean annual evaporation during this period shows good agreement between these two methods (977 mm according to the model and 1007 mm according to the pan method). A stepwise linear regression reveals that downward shortwave radiation was the most significant contributor to the modeled evaporation trend, while air temperature was the most significant contributor to the pan evaporation trend. Wind speed had little impact on the modeled lake evaporation but had a negative contribution to the pan evaporation trend offsetting some of the temperature effect. Reference evaporation was not a good proxy for the lake evaporation because it was on average 20.6 % too high and its increasing trend was too large (56.5 mm decade-1).

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E.

2016-12-01

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming.

Increasing trend in the average temperature in Finland, 1847-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikkonen, Santtu; Laine, Marko; Mäkelä, Hanna M.; Gregow, Hilppa; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Lahtinen, Matti; Laaksonen, Ari

2014-05-01

The global average temperature has increased by about 0.8 ° C since the mid-19th century. It has been shown that this increase is statistically significant and that it can, for the most part, be attributed to human-induced climate change (IPCC 2007). A temperature increase is obvious also in regional and local temperatures in many parts of the world. However, compared with the global average temperature, the regional and local temperatures exhibit higher levels of noise, which has largely been removed from the global temperature due to the higher level of averaging. Because Finland is located in northern latitudes, it is subject to the polar amplification of climate change-induced warming, which is due to the enhanced melting of snow and ice and other feedback mechanisms. Therefore, warming in Finland is expected to be approximately 50% higher than the global average. Conversely, the location of Finland between the Atlantic Ocean and continental Eurasia causes the weather to be very variable, and thus the temperature signal is rather noisy. The change in mean temperature in Finland was investigated with Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) in order to define the sign and the magnitude of the trend in the temperature time series within the last 165 years. The data consisted of gridded monthly mean temperatures. The grid has a 10 km spatial resolution, and it was created by interpolating a homogenized temperature series measured at Finnish weather stations. Seasonal variation in temperature and the autocorrelation structure of the time series were taken account in the DLM models. We found that the Finnish temperature time series exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend, which is consistent with human-induced global warming. The mean temperature has risen clearly over 2° C in the years 1847-2012, which amounts to 0.16 ° C/decade. The warming rate before 1940's was close to the linear trend for the whole period, whereas the temperature change in the mid-20th century was negligible. However, the warming after the late 1960s has been remarkably fast. The model indicates that within the last 40 years the rate of change has been as high as 0.30 ° C/decade. The increase in temperature has been highest in spring and in late autumn but the change in summer months has not been so evident. The observed warming is somewhat higher than the global trend, which confirms the assumption that warming is stronger in higher latitudes.

Relation between relief and crustal structure in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain) using DEM-GIS analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llana-Fúnez, Sergio; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Laura; Ballesteros, Daniel; María Díaz-Díaz, Luis; Valenzuela, Pablo; López-Fernández, Carlos; José Domínguez-Cuesta, María; Meléndez, Mónica; Jiménez-Sánchez, Montserrat; Fernández-Viejo, Gabriela

2017-04-01

The Cantabrian Mountains show a linear E-W trend parallel to the northern coast of Iberia peninsula, from the Pyrenees to Galicia, where it looses its trend and linearity. The western end of the linear segment of the orogen coincides with a change in the style of structures, accommodating the N-S shortening during the convergence between Europe and Iberia plates. We study the relief of the 230 km-long segment of the linear range between the Cantabria and Galicia re- gions, up to 2,650 m altitude. The bulk trend of the orogeny is controlled by the orientation of alpine thrusts that accommodate the shortening in relation to plate convergence. The Alpine Orogeny produced crustal thickening and the present day topography. Crustal thickness varies from 30 km in Eastern Cantabrian Mountains to 45-55 km at the Middle part of these mountains. The collision between European and African plates localized in northern Iberia from the Eocene to Oligocene and later migrated to southern Iberia during the Miocene. No major tectonic convergence was accommodated in the Cantabrians Mountains since the Oligocene, entering the orogen an erosional phase since then. The GIS-analysis present here, using 5 and 25 m-resolution DEMs by the Spanish National Geographical Institute, aims to identify the major features and to characterize the overall relief of the Cantabrians Mountains. In our preliminary approach, we present swath profiles, major river basins, watershed, longitudinal profiles of major rivers and hypsometric curves from selected areas that cover the studied orogen segment. Major tectonic structures control the location and orientation of the main watershed of the mountain range, but also the orientation of some local watersheds, e.g. associated to the Llanera thrust or the Ventaniella (strike-slip) fault. An unexpected result is that the average altitude along the water divide is 1,500 m, regardless of the large differences in crustal thickness along the study area. Most longitudinal river profiles running south to north lack knick points in relation to relief forming tectonic structures, indicative of the predominance of fluvial erosional system postdating tectonics. An emerged coastal wave-cut platform dipping gently towards the West, a slight increase in maximum mountain altitude to the east and slight increase in river incision also towards the East may indicate that a gradient in erosion and in up-lifting exists increasing from West to East. This is consistent with an overall increase of crustal thickness along this direction.

Separation of Trend and Chaotic Components of Time Series and Estimation of Their Characteristics by Linear Splines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kryanev, A. V.; Ivanov, V. V.; Romanova, A. O.; Sevastyanov, L. A.; Udumyan, D. K.

2018-03-01

This paper considers the problem of separating the trend and the chaotic component of chaotic time series in the absence of information on the characteristics of the chaotic component. Such a problem arises in nuclear physics, biomedicine, and many other applied fields. The scheme has two stages. At the first stage, smoothing linear splines with different values of smoothing parameter are used to separate the "trend component." At the second stage, the method of least squares is used to find the unknown variance σ2 of the noise component.

Spacecraft-borne long life cryogenic refrigeration: Status and trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, A. L.

1983-01-01

The status of cryogenic refrigerator development intended for, or possibly applicable to, long life spacecraft-borne application is reviewed. Based on these efforts, the general development trends are identified. Using currently projected technology needs, the various trends are compared and evaluated. The linear drive, non-contacting bearing Stirling cycle refrigerator concept appears to be the best current approach that will meet the technology projection requirements for spacecraft-borne cryogenic refrigerators. However, a multiply redundant set of lightweight, moderate life, moderate reliability Stirling cycle cryogenic refrigerators using high-speed linear drive and sliding contact bearings may possibly suffice.

Influence of Current Velocity on Uranium Adsorption from Seawater Using an Amidoxime-based Polymer Fiber Adsorbent

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ladshaw, Austin; Kuo, Li-Jung; Strivens, Jonathan

2017-02-08

Passive adsorption using amidoxime-based polymeric adsorbents is being developed for uranium recovery from seawater. The local oceanic current velocity where the adsorbent is deployed is a key variable in determining locations that will maximize uranium adsorption rates. Two independent experimental approaches using flow-through columns and recirculating flumes were used to assess the influence of linear velocity on uranium uptake kinetics by the adsorbent. Little to no difference was observed in the uranium adsorption rate vs. linear velocity for seawater exposure in flow-through columns. In contrast, adsorption results from seawater exposure in a recirculating flume showed a nearly linear trend withmore » current velocity. The difference in adsorbent performance between columns and flume can be attributed to (i) flow resistance provided by the adsorbent braid in the flume and (ii) enhancement in braid movement (fluttering) with increasing linear velocity.« less

Influence of Current Velocity on Uranium Adsorption from Seawater Using an Amidoxime-Based Polymer Fiber Adsorbent

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ladshaw, Austin; Kuo, Li-Jung; Strivens, Jonathan

2017-02-17

Passive adsorption using amidoxime-based polymeric adsorbents is being developed for uranium recovery from seawater. The local oceanic current velocity where the adsorbent is deployed is a key variable in determining locations that will maximize uranium adsorption rates. Two independent experimental approaches using flow-through columns and recirculating flumes were used to assess the influence of linear velocity on uranium uptake kinetics by the adsorbent. Little to no difference was observed in the uranium adsorption rate vs. linear velocity for seawater exposure in flow-through columns. In contrast, adsorption results from seawater exposure in a recirculating flume showed a nearly linear trend withmore » current velocity. The difference in adsorbent performance between columns and flume can be attributed to (i) flow resistance provided by the adsorbent braid in the flume and (ii) enhancement in braid movement (fluttering) with increasing linear velocity.« less

Global Ocean Sedimentation Patterns: Plate Tectonic History Versus Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, A.; Reynolds, E.; Olson, P.; Hinnov, L. A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2014-12-01

Global sediment data (Whittaker et al., 2013) and carbonate content data (Archer, 1996) allows examination of ocean sedimentation evolution with respect to age of the underlying ocean crust (Müller et al., 2008). From these data, we construct time series of ocean sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian ocean basins for the past 120 Ma. These time series are unique to each basin and reflect an integrated response to plate tectonics and climate change. The goal is to parameterize ocean sedimentation tied to crustal age for paleoclimate studies. For each basin, total sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate from 0.1 x 0.1 degree cells are binned according to basement crustal age; area-corrected moments (mean, variance, etc.) are calculated for each bin. Segmented linear fits identify trends in present-day carbonate deposition rates and changes in ocean sedimentation from 0 to 120 Ma. In the North and South Atlantic and Indian oceans, mean sediment thickness versus crustal age is well represented by three linear segments, with the slope of each segment increasing with increasing crustal age. However, the transition age between linear segments varies among the three basins. In contrast, mean sediment thickness in the North and South Pacific oceans are numerically smaller and well represented by two linear segments with slopes that decrease with increasing crustal age. These opposing trends are more consistent with the plate tectonic history of each basin being the controlling factor in sedimentation rates, rather than climate change. Unlike total sediment thickness, carbonate deposition rates decrease smoothly with crustal age in all basins, with the primary controls being ocean chemistry and water column depth.References: Archer, D., 1996, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 159-174.Müller, R.D., et al., 2008, Science, 319, 1357-1362.Whittaker, J., et al., 2013, Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst. DOI: 10.1002/ggge.20181

Relationship of gas hydrate concentration to porosity and reflection amplitude in a research well, Mackenzie Delta, Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jin, Y.K.; Lee, M.W.; Collett, T.S.

2002-01-01

Well logs acquired at the Mallik 2L-38 gas hydrate research well. Mackenzie Delta, Canada, reveal a distinct trend showing that the resistivity of gas-hydrate-bearing sediments increases with increases in density porosities. This trend, opposite to the general trend of decrease in resistivity with porosity, implies that gas hydrates are more concentrated in the higher porosity. Using the Mallik 2L-38 well data, a proportional gas hydrate concentration (PGHC) model, which states that the gas hydrate concentration in the sediment's pore space is linearly proportional to porosity, is proposed for the general habitat of gas hydrate in sediments. Anomalous data (less than 6% of the total data) outside the dominant observed trend can be explained by local geological characteristics. The anomalous data analysis indicates that highly concentrated gas-hydrate-bearing layers would be expected where sediments have high proportions of gravel and coarse sand. Using the parameters in the PGHC model determined from resistivity-porosity logs, it is possible to qualitatively predict the degree of reflection amplitude variations in seismic profiles. Moderate-to-strong reflections are expected for the Mallik 2L-38 well. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Levels and temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) from Svalbard in relation to dietary habits and food availability.

PubMed

Andersen, Martin S; Fuglei, Eva; König, Max; Lipasti, Inka; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Polder, Anuschka; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Routti, Heli

2015-04-01

Temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) from Svalbard, Norway, were investigated in relation to feeding habits and seasonal food availability. Arctic foxes from Svalbard forage in both marine and terrestrial ecosystems and the availability of their food items are impacted by climatic variability. Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorinated pesticides (OCPs) and brominated flame retardants (polybrominated diphenyl ethers [PBDEs] and hexabromocyclododecane [HBCDD]) were analyzed in the liver of 141 arctic foxes collected between 1997 and 2013. Stable carbon isotope values (δ13C) were used as a proxy for feeding on marine versus terrestrial prey. The annual number of recovered reindeer carcasses and sea ice cover were used as proxies for climate influenced food availability (reindeers, seals). Linear models revealed that concentrations of PCBs, chlordanes, p,p'-DDE, mirex and PBDEs decreased 4-11% per year, while no trends were observed for hexachlorobenzene (HCB) or β-hexachlorocyclohexane (β-HCH). Positive relationships between POP concentrations and δ13C indicate that concentrations of all compounds increase with increasing marine dietary input. Increasing reindeer mortality was related to lower HCB concentrations in the foxes based on the linear models. This suggests that concentrations of HCB in arctic foxes may be influenced by high mortality levels of Svalbard reindeer. Further, β-HCH concentrations showed a positive association with sea ice cover. These results in addition to the strong effect of δ13C on all POP concentrations suggest that climate-related changes in arctic fox diet are likely to influence contaminant concentrations in arctic foxes from Svalbard. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving the energy efficiency of sparse linear system solvers on multicore and manycore systems.

PubMed

Anzt, H; Quintana-Ortí, E S

2014-06-28

While most recent breakthroughs in scientific research rely on complex simulations carried out in large-scale supercomputers, the power draft and energy spent for this purpose is increasingly becoming a limiting factor to this trend. In this paper, we provide an overview of the current status in energy-efficient scientific computing by reviewing different technologies used to monitor power draft as well as power- and energy-saving mechanisms available in commodity hardware. For the particular domain of sparse linear algebra, we analyse the energy efficiency of a broad collection of hardware architectures and investigate how algorithmic and implementation modifications can improve the energy performance of sparse linear system solvers, without negatively impacting their performance. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Trends and forecasts of hospital admissions for acute and chronic pancreatitis in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Spanier, Bernhard Werner Marcel; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G W; Bruno, Marco J

2008-07-01

The incidence and prevalence of acute and chronic pancreatitis have increased in Western countries. It is likely, the number of hospital admissions has increased correspondingly. To analyze the trends in hospital admissions in the Netherlands for acute and chronic pancreatitis from 1992 to 2004 and to forecast the number of admissions up to 2010. Analysis of hospital admissions for acute and chronic pancreatitis accumulated in a nationwide database. Curve fitting regression models were used to explore future trends. The number of acute pancreatitis admissions rose in 1992-2004 from 1,785 to 3,120 (74.8% increase). The overall 'annual number' of acute pancreatitis admissions increased from 11.8 to 19.2 per 100,000 person-years. The linear regression model predicted 3,205 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 3,111-3,299] and 3,537 (95% CI, 3,429-3,645) admissions for 2007 and 2010, respectively, a further increase of at least 9.9% in 2010 compared with 2004. In the 12-year time period, chronic pancreatitis admissions showed an increase of 75.4% (from 790 to 1,386). The overall 'annual number' of chronic pancreatitis admissions increased from 5.2 to 8.5 per 100,000 person-years. The cubic regression model predicted 1868 (95% CI, 1,619-2,117) and 3,173 (95% CI, 2,456-3,890) admissions for 2007 and 2010, respectively, an additional increase of 77.2% in 2010 compared with 2004. Hospital admissions for acute and chronic pancreatitis have increased substantially from 1992-2004. This trend will most likely continue for the near future and the burden and costs to the Dutch health care system will increase accordingly.

Trends in pediatric echocardiography and the yield for congenital heart disease in a major cardiac referral hospital in Cameroon.

PubMed

Nkoke, Clovis; Balti, Eric; Menanga, Alain; Dzudie, Anastase; Lekoubou, Alain; Kingue, Samuel; Kengne, Andre Pascal

2017-01-01

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is a common condition in children in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where it is associated with poor outcomes. Diagnosis of CHD in SSA depends essentially on echocardiography, which is available only in few urban referral centers. Our aim was to assess time changes in the pattern of referral for pediatric echocardiography and the subsequent diagnosis of structural CHD in a major SSA city. All pediatric echocardiography performed between 2004 and 2013 at the echocardiography laboratory of the Yaounde General Hospital were reviewed. The primary indication of the study and the presence of structural CHD were recorded. Between 2004 and 2013, 9,390 echocardiograms were performed and 834 (8.9%) children aged 1 day to 15 years underwent echocardiography at the center, and 227 (27.2%) cases of definite structural CHD were diagnosed, with 123 (54.2%) in boys. The most frequent indications for echocardiography were heart murmurs (40%) and the suspicion of CHD (37.4%). The commonest CHD was ventricular septal defect (VSD) (30%) with tetralogy of Fallot being the most frequent cyanotic heart lesion (5.3%). The proportion of pediatric echocardiography decreased from 13.3% in 2004-2005 to 6.1% in 2012-2013 (P=0.001) but not in a linear fashion (P=0.072 for linear trend).The diagnosis of structural CHD increased from 25.1% in 2004-2005 to 27.1% in 2012-2013. This increase however was non-significant (P=0.523) and did not follow a linear trend (P=0.230). The pattern of referral for pediatric echocardiography at this center has changed over time, but diagnosis of structural CHD has remained the same. Improving access to this diagnostic procedure and subsequent treatment of diagnosed CHD will help improving the outcome of the disease in this setting.

Recent trends of groundwater temperatures in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benz, Susanne A.; Bayer, Peter; Winkler, Gerfried; Blum, Philipp

2018-06-01

Climate change is one of if not the most pressing challenge modern society faces. Increasing temperatures are observed all over the planet and the impact of climate change on the hydrogeological cycle has long been shown. However, so far we have insufficient knowledge on the influence of atmospheric warming on shallow groundwater temperatures. While some studies analyse the implication climate change has for selected wells, large-scale studies are so far lacking. Here we focus on the combined impact of climate change in the atmosphere and local hydrogeological conditions on groundwater temperatures in 227 wells in Austria, which have in part been observed since 1964. A linear analysis finds a temperature change of +0.7 ± 0.8 K in the years from 1994 to 2013. In the same timeframe surface air temperatures in Austria increased by 0.5 ± 0.3 K, displaying a much smaller variety. However, most of the extreme changes in groundwater temperatures can be linked to local hydrogeological conditions. Correlation between groundwater temperatures and nearby surface air temperatures was additionally analysed. They vary greatly, with correlation coefficients of -0.3 in central Linz to 0.8 outside of Graz. In contrast, the correlation of nationwide groundwater temperatures and surface air temperatures is high, with a correlation coefficient of 0.83. All of these findings indicate that while atmospheric climate change can be observed in nationwide groundwater temperatures, individual wells are often primarily dominated by local hydrogeological conditions. In addition to the linear temperature trend, a step-wise model was also applied that identifies climate regime shifts, which were observed globally in the late 70s, 80s, and 90s. Hinting again at the influence of local conditions, at most 22 % of all wells show these climate regime shifts. However, we were able to identify an additional shift in 2007, which was observed by 37 % of all wells. Overall, the step-wise representation provides a slightly more accurate picture of observed temperatures than the linear trend.

Using Generalized Additive Models to Analyze Single-Case Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shadish, William; Sullivan, Kristynn

2013-01-01

Many analyses for single-case designs (SCDs)--including nearly all the effect size indicators-- currently assume no trend in the data. Regression and multilevel models allow for trend, but usually test only linear trend and have no principled way of knowing if higher order trends should be represented in the model. This paper shows how Generalized…

An emergentist vs a linear approach to social change processes: a gender look in contemporary India between modernity and Hindu tradition.

PubMed

Condorelli, Rosalia

2015-01-01

Using Census of India data from 1901 to 2011 and national and international reports on women's condition in India, beginning with sex ratio trends according to regional distribution up to female infanticides and sex-selective abortions and dowry deaths, this study examines the sociological aspects of the gender imbalance in modern contemporary India. Gender inequality persistence in India proves that new values and structures do not necessarily lead to the disappearance of older forms, but they can co-exist with mutual adaptations and reinforcements. Data analysis suggests that these unexpected combinations are not comprehensible in light of a linear concept of social change which is founded, in turn, on a concept of social systems as linear interaction systems that relate to environmental perturbations according to proportional cause and effect relationships. From this perspective, in fact, behavioral attitudes and interaction relationships should be less and less proportionally regulated by traditional values and practices as exposure to modernizing influences increases. And progressive decreases should be found in rates of social indicators of gender inequality like dowry deaths (the inverse should be found in sex ratio trends). However, data does not confirm these trends. This finding leads to emphasize a new theoretical and methodological approach toward social systems study, namely the conception of social systems as complex adaptive systems and the consequential emergentist, nonlinear conception of social change processes. Within the framework of emergentist theory of social change is it possible to understand the lasting strength of the patriarchal tradition and its problematic consequences in the modern contemporary India.

Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

PubMed Central

Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

2016-01-01

Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

The association of longitudinal trend of fasting plasma glucose with retinal microvasculature in people without established diabetes.

PubMed

Hu, Yin; Niu, Yong; Wang, Dandan; Wang, Ying; Holden, Brien A; He, Mingguang

2015-01-22

Structural changes of retinal vasculature, such as altered retinal vascular calibers, are considered as early signs of systemic vascular damage. We examined the associations of 5-year mean level, longitudinal trend, and fluctuation in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) with retinal vascular caliber in people without established diabetes. A prospective study was conducted in a cohort of Chinese people age ≥40 years in Guangzhou, southern China. The FPG was measured at baseline in 2008 and annually until 2012. In 2012, retinal vascular caliber was assessed using standard fundus photographs and validated software. A total of 3645 baseline nondiabetic participants with baseline and follow-up data on FPG for 3 or more visits was included for statistical analysis. The associations of retinal vascular caliber with 5-year mean FPG level, longitudinal FPG trend (slope of linear regression-FPG), and fluctuation (standard deviation and root mean square error of FPG) were analyzed using multivariable linear regression analyses. Multivariate regression models adjusted for baseline FPG and other potential confounders showed that a 10% annual increase in FPG was associated independently with a 2.65-μm narrowing in retinal arterioles (P = 0.008) and a 3.47-μm widening in venules (P = 0. 0.004). Associations with mean FPG level and fluctuation were not statistically significant. Annual rising trend in FPG, but not its mean level or fluctuation, is associated with altered retinal vasculature in nondiabetic people. Copyright 2015 The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology, Inc.

Permeability-porosity relationships in sedimentary rocks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Philip H.

1994-01-01

In many consolidated sandstone and carbonate formations, plots of core data show that the logarithm of permeability (k) is often linearly proportional to porosity (??). The slope, intercept, and degree of scatter of these log(k)-?? trends vary from formation to formation, and these variations are attributed to differences in initial grain size and sorting, diagenetic history, and compaction history. In unconsolidated sands, better sorting systematically increases both permeability and porosity. In sands and sandstones, an increase in gravel and coarse grain size content causes k to increase even while decreasing ??. Diagenetic minerals in the pore space of sandstones, such as cement and some clay types, tend to decrease log(k) proportionately as ?? decreases. Models to predict permeability from porosity and other measurable rock parameters fall into three classes based on either grain, surface area, or pore dimension considerations. (Models that directly incorporate well log measurements but have no particular theoretical underpinnings from a fourth class.) Grain-based models show permeability proportional to the square of grain size times porosity raised to (roughly) the fifth power, with grain sorting as an additional parameter. Surface-area models show permeability proportional to the inverse square of pore surface area times porosity raised to (roughly) the fourth power; measures of surface area include irreducible water saturation and nuclear magnetic resonance. Pore-dimension models show permeability proportional to the square of a pore dimension times porosity raised to a power of (roughly) two and produce curves of constant pore size that transgress the linear data trends on a log(k)-?? plot. The pore dimension is obtained from mercury injection measurements and is interpreted as the pore opening size of some interconnected fraction of the pore system. The linear log(k)-?? data trends cut the curves of constant pore size from the pore-dimension models, which shows that porosity reduction is always accompanied by a reduction in characteristic pore size. The high powers of porosity of the grain-based and surface-area models are required to compensate for the inclusion of the small end of the pore size spectrum.

Trends in birth across high-parity groups by race/ethnicity and maternal age.

PubMed Central

Aliyu, Muktar H.; Salihu, Hamisu M.; Keith, Louis G.; Ehiri, John E.; Islam, M. Aminul; Jolly, Pauline E.

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND: The changing racial and ethnic diversity of the U.S. population along with delayed childbearing suggest that shifts in the demographic composition of gravidas are likely. It is unclear whether trends in the proportion of births to parous women in the United States have changed over the decades by race and ethnicity, reflecting parallel changes in population demographics. METHODS: Singleton deliveries > or = 20 weeks of gestation in the United States from 1989 through 2000 were analyzed using data from the "Natality data files" assembled by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). We classified maternal age into three categories; younger mothers (aged < 30 years), mature mothers (30-39 years) and older mothers (> or = 40 years) and maternal race/ethnicity into three groups: blacks (non-Hispanic), Hispanics and whites (non-Hispanic). We computed birth rates by period of delivery across the entire population and repeated the analysis stratified by age and maternal race. Chi-squared statistics for linear trend were utilized to assess linear trend across three four-year phases: 1989-1992, 1993-1996 and 1997-2000. In estimating the association between race/ethnicity and parity status, the direct method of standardization was employed to adjust for maternal age. RESULTS: Over the study period, the total number of births to blacks and whites diminished consistently (p for trend < 0.001), whereas among Hispanics a progressive increase in the total number of deliveries was evident (p for trend < 0.001). Black and white women experienced a reduction in total deliveries equivalent to 10% and 9.3%, respectively, while Hispanic women showed a substantial increment in total births (25%). Regardless of race or ethnicity, birth rate was associated with increase in maternal age in a dose-effect fashion among the high (5-9 previous live births), very high (10-14 previous live births) and extremely high (> or = 15 previous live births) parity groups (p for trend < 0.001). After maternal age standardization, black and Hispanic women were more likely to have higher parity as compared to whites. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate substantial variation in parity patterns among the main racial and ethnic populations in the United States. These results may help in formulating strategies that will serve as templates for optimizing resource allocation across the different racial/ethnic subpopulations in the United States. PMID:16035578

Trends in surgery for upper urinary tract calculi in the USA using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample: 1999-2009.

PubMed

Ghani, Khurshid R; Sammon, Jesse D; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Sun, Maxine; Bhojani, Naeem; Sukumar, Shyam; Peabody, James O; Menon, Mani; Trinh, Quoc-Dien

2013-07-01

To determine trends in demographics and treatment for inpatient upper urinary tract calculi in the USA using a population-based cohort. All patients with a primary or secondary diagnosis of kidney or ureteric calculus between 1999 and 2009 in the US Nationwide Inpatient Sample were extracted and weighted. Temporal trend analyses were used to determine trends in gender, race and age presentation, as well as utilization rates of interventions. Temporal trends were quantified using the estimated annual percent change (EAPC) using least squares linear regression analysis. Overall, 2 109 455 patients were hospitalized with upper urinary tract calculi over the 11-year period. The majority of admissions were for ureteric calculi (63.4%). Admissions for renal calculus increased by 12.1% during the study period (EAPC + 0.92%, P = 0.039, 95% CI: 0.17-1.66), whilst discharges for ureteric calculus remained stable. A significant increase (25.4%) in hospitalizations for women was found (EAPC + 2.21%, P < 0.001, 95% CI: 1.40-3.03); by 2006, more women than men were admitted to hospital (95 953 vs. 94 556, respectively). There were significant increases in hospitalization for black, Hispanic and older patients. Significant changes in the use of all studied interventions were found except for ureteroscopy, extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy and nephrectomy. In this nationally representative sample of inpatient discharges, significant increases were found in admissions for renal compared with ureteric calculi, and for black, Hispanic and older patients. With regard to surgical intervention, the largest increase was found in the use of procedures for kidney calculi. Women now comprise the majority in the inpatient management of stone disease. © 2013 BJU International.

Trends in thermal discomfort indices over western coastal cities of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, Manasi S.; Dhorde, Amit G.

2018-02-01

The present research aimed at analyzing temporal trends in thermal discomfort indices for a period of 46 years from 1969 to 2014 over western coastal region of India for seven urban centers during the months of pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Direct thermal discomfort indices employed for this purpose were thermo-hygrometric index (THI) and heat index (HI). Statistical techniques applied for obtaining temporal trends were linear regression model and Mann-Kendall (MK) rank test. Statistical significance of the obtained trends was evaluated at 95% confidence level. Sequential MK (SQ-MK) test was used for change point detection. To investigate actual incidences of thermal discomfort, daily index values were averaged for standard meteorological weeks (SMWs) over the study period and decadal percentage of thermal discomfort during SMWs was estimated. Trend analysis of selected meteorological parameters such as dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS) were investigated, which might be responsible for variation in thermal discomfort over the period. The results obtained depicted significant increase in thermal discomfort over the cities located on the southern part of west coast, while significant increase was observed during monsoon season months compared to pre-monsoon season. Decadal variation in percentage of SMWs falling in various discomfort categories was studied. At majority of the stations, moderate and high-risk SMWs have increased over the last two decades. The results of change point detection for THI and HI denoted significant increase at most of the stations after 1990s. The study validates increase in thermal discomfort vulnerability, particularly at thriving urban centers of western coastal region of India.

Associations of Bar and Restaurant Smoking Bans With Smoking Behavior in the CARDIA Study: A 25-Year Study.

PubMed

Mayne, Stephanie L; Auchincloss, Amy H; Tabb, Loni Philip; Stehr, Mark; Shikany, James M; Schreiner, Pamela J; Widome, Rachel; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

2018-06-01

Indoor smoking bans have often been associated with reductions in smoking prevalence. However, few studies have evaluated their association with within-person changes in smoking behaviors. We linked longitudinal data from 5,105 adults aged 18-30 years at baseline from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study (1985-2011) to state, county, and local policies mandating 100% smoke-free bars and restaurants by census tract. We used fixed-effects models to examine the association of smoking bans with within-person change in current smoking risk, smoking intensity (smoking ≥10 cigarettes/day on average vs. <10 cigarettes/day), and quitting attempts, using both linear and nonlinear adjustment for secular trends. In models assuming a linear secular trend, smoking bans were associated with a decline in current smoking risk and smoking intensity and an increased likelihood of a quitting attempt. The association with current smoking was greatest among participants with a bachelor's degree or higher. In models with a nonlinear secular trend, pooled results were attenuated (confidence intervals included the null), but effect modification results were largely unchanged. Findings suggest that smoking ban associations may be difficult to disentangle from other tobacco control interventions and emphasize the importance of evaluating equity throughout policy implementation.

Martian lineaments from Mariner 6 and 7 photographs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, P. H.; Ingerson, F. E.

1973-01-01

Mariner 6 and 7 photographs were used to investigate the nature and importance of linear surface trends on Mars. Cross correlations of frequency-azimuth distributions of linear trends from different Mariner frames indicate that lineations not recognized as topographic features have a component of pseudoforms, probably introduced during digital reconstruction of the pictures. Similar statistical tests may aid in the analysis of surface trends from future satellites and space probes. The most reliable data were separated into photometrically defined provinces. Meridiani Sinus and Margaritifer Sinus display five major trends in common, which are interpreted as extensions of crustal weaknesses related to the enormous equatorial canyon revealed in Mariner 6 and 9 pictures. Alignments of crater wall segments generally match these trends and suggest structural control of crater plan. Crater chains, however, do not match these trends and are interpreted as secondary impacts. Rose diagrams of lineations in Deucalionis Regio exhibit much more complexity and are believed to reflect a better preserved or more complex geologic history.

New Trends in Educational Lighting Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Peter

2001-01-01

Explores technological trends for improving campus lighting, including the use of direct-indirect suspended fluorescent lighting, suspended linear lighting, high-efficiency optical systems, and occupancy and daylight sensors. (GR)

Intra-national variation in trends in overweight and leisure time physical activities in The Netherlands since 1980: stratification according to sex, age and urbanisation degree.

PubMed

Gast, G C M; Gast, G-C M; Frenken, F J M; van Leest, L A T M; Wendel-Vos, G C W; Bemelmans, W J E

2007-03-01

To investigate time trends in overweight and Leisure Time Physical Activities (LTPA) in The Netherlands since 1980. Intra-national differences were examined stratified for sex, age and urbanisation degree. We used a random sample of about 140,000 respondents aged 20-69 years from the Health Interview Survey (Nethhis) and subsequent Permanent Survey on Living Conditions (POLS). Self-reported data on weight and height and demographic characteristics were gathered through interviews (every year) and data on LTPA were collected by self-administered questionnaires (1990-1997, 2001-2004). Linear regression analysis was performed for trend analyses. During 1981-2004, mean body mass index (BMI) increased significantly by 1.0 kg/m(2) (average per year=0.05 kg/m(2)). Trends were similar across sex and different degrees of urbanisation, but varied across age groups. In 20-to 39-year-old women, mean BMI increased by 1.7 kg/m(2), which was more than in older age groups (P

Including land cover change in analysis of greenness trends using all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images: A case study from Guangzhou, China (2000–2014)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhe; Fu, Yingchun; Woodcock, Curtis; Olofsson, Pontus; Vogelmann, James; Holden, Christopher; Wang, Min; Dai, Shu; Yu, Yang

2016-01-01

An assessment of the consistency of surface reflectance from Landsat 8 with past Landsat sensors indicates biases in the visible bands of Landsat 8, especially the blue band. Landsat 8 NDVI values were found to have a larger bias than the EVI values; therefore, EVI was used in the analysis of greenness trends for Guangzhou. In spite of massive amounts of development in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2014, greenness was found to increase, mostly as a result of gradual change. Comparison of the greening magnitudes estimated from the approach presented here and a Simple Linear Trend (SLT) method indicated large differences for certain time intervals as the SLT method does not include consideration for abrupt land cover changes. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land cover change when analyzing trends in greenness from satellite time series in areas where land cover change is common.

Observed temperature trends in the Indian Ocean over 1960-1999 and associated mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alory, Gaël; Wijffels, Susan; Meyers, Gary

2007-01-01

The linear trends in oceanic temperature from 1960 to 1999 are estimated using the new Indian Ocean Thermal Archive (IOTA), a compilation of historical temperature profiles. Widespread surface warming is found, as in other data sets, and reproduced in IPCC climate model simulations for the 20th century. This warming is particularly large in the subtropics, and extends down to 800 m around 40-50°S. Models suggest the deep-reaching subtropical warming is related to a 0.5° southward shift of the subtropical gyre driven by a strengthening of the westerly winds, and associated with an upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode index. In the tropics, IOTA shows a subsurface cooling corresponding to a shoaling of the thermocline and increasing vertical stratification. Most models suggest this trend in the tropical Indian thermocline is likely associated with the observed weakening of the Pacific trade winds and transmitted to the Indian Ocean by the Indonesian throughflow.

Projection display technology and product trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahn, Frederic J.

1999-05-01

Major technology and market trends that could generate a 20 billion dollar electronic projector market by 2010 are reviewed in the perspective of recent product introductions. A log linear analysis shows that the light outputs of benchmark transportable data video projectors have increased at a rate of almost 90 percent per year since 1993. The list prices of these same projectors have decreased at a rate of over 40 percent per year. The tradeoffs of light output vs. resolution and weight are illustrated. Recent trends in projector efficacy vs. year are discussed. Lumen output per dollar of list price is shown to be a useful market metric. Continued technical advances and innovations including higher throughput light valve technologies with integrated drivers, brighter light source, field sequential color, integrated- and micro-optical components, and aerospace materials are likely to sustain these trends. The new technologies will enable projection displays for entertainment and computer applications with unprecedented levels of performance, compactness, and cost-effectiveness.

Long-Term Coffee Consumption and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review and a Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Ding, Ming; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Satija, Ambika; van Dam, Rob M; Hu, Frank B

2013-01-01

Background Considerable controversy exists regarding the association between coffee consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the dose-response relationship of long-term coffee consumption with CVD risk. Methods and Results Pubmed and EMBASE were searched for prospective cohort studies of the relationship between coffee consumption and CVD risk, which included coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and CVD mortality. Thirty-six studies were included with 1,279,804 participants and 36,352 CVD cases. A non-linear relationship of coffee consumption with CVD risk was identified (P for heterogeneity = 0.09, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity < 0.001). Compared with the lowest category of coffee consumption (median: 0 cups/d), the relative risk of CVD was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.87 to 1.03) for the highest (median: 5 cups/d) category, 0.85 (0.80 to 0.90) for the second highest (median: 3.5 cups/d), and 0.89 (0.84 to 0.94) for the third highest category (median: 1.5 cups/d). Looking at separate outcomes, coffee consumption was non-linearly associated with both CHD (P for heterogeneity = 0.001, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity < 0.001) and stroke risks (P for heterogeneity = 0.07, P for trend < 0.001, P for non-linearity< 0.001) (P for trend differences > 0.05). Conclusions A non-linear association between coffee consumption with CVD risk was observed in this meta-analysis. Moderate coffee consumption was inversely significantly associated with CVD risk, with the lowest CVD risk at 3 to 5 cups/d, and heavy coffee consumption was not associated with elevated CVD risk. PMID:24201300

Obesity explains gender differences in the association between education level and metabolic syndrome in South Korea: the results from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2010.

PubMed

Ko, Ki Dong; Cho, BeLong; Lee, Won Chul; Lee, Hae Won; Lee, Hyun Ki; Oh, Bum Jo

2015-03-01

This study aimed to examine the association of educational level with metabolic syndrome (MS) and its risk factors by gender in South Korea. A total of 6178 participants aged 20 years or older from The Fifth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were included in this study. A generalized linear model and adjusted proportion were used to identify educational disparities in MS, its components, and its risk factors (smoking, high-risk alcohol consumption, obesity, and stress). In women, a clearly inverse association between education level and MS were observed with significant trend, and the decreasing trends of all risk factors across education quartiles were in line with the inverse association. However, the association between education level and MS was not observed with a significant trend among men. An opposite trend of risk factors across education levels was shown in men, with an increasing trend for obesity and decreasing trends for smoking and high-risk alcohol consumption. These findings demonstrate that obesity can explain gender differences in the association between education level and MS in South Korea. © 2013 APJPH.

Little evidence for significant increases of methane emissions from oil and gas operations in the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, X.; Tans, P. P.; Sweeney, C.; Andrews, A. E.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Lang, P. M.; Crotwell, M.; Miller, B.; Kofler, J.; Newberger, T.; McKain, K.; Wolter, S.; Montzka, S. A.

2016-12-01

Recent studies on whether methane (CH4) emissions from oil and natural gas (ONG) operations in the U.S. have increased are still inconclusive. To provide observational evidence we carefully analyzed the in-situ CH4 measurements from the NOAA/ESRL Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network (GGGRN) for the best estimates of CH4 trends for 2006-2016. Methane data from more than 20 surface and aircraft sites across the U.S. were included in this study. Variations of sampling frequencies in different seasons were taken into account for accurate trend detection. Correlations among measurements within short sampling intervals were also considered for uncertainty estimates. We found that most of our sites had similar CH4 trends of 6 ppb/yr, which was comparable with the recent global background CH4 trend. Substantially higher growth rates were found at the Southern Great Plain site in Oklahoma (SGP, downwind of the Eagle Ford, Barnett Shale and Woodford ONG fields) and the Dahlen sites in North Dakota (DND, downwind of the Bakken ONG field), which indicated influences from regional ONG activities. Ethane (C2H6) measurements from SGP (C2H6 measurements were not available from DND) and propane (C3H8) measurements from both SPG and DND exhibited significant increasing trends, while trends at other sites were either non-significant (trend < 2*S.D.) or only marginally significant. Linear correlations were well identified for surface C3H8 and CH4 enhancements at these two sites, relative to observations at higher altitudes. However, by applying the observed enhancement ratios of surface C3H8 /CH4 and the C3H8 trends (as indicator for ONG emissions) on CH4 trend estimates, we would infer much larger surface CH4 trends than what we actually observed at these two sites. This discrepancy suggests that using enhancement ratios of C3H8 /CH4 is not likely a reliable approach to compute CH4 emission trends.

Secular Trends in Blood Pressure and Overweight and Obesity in Chinese Boys and Girls Aged 7 to 17 Years From 1995 to 2014.

PubMed

Dong, Yanhui; Ma, Jun; Song, Yi; Ma, Yinghua; Dong, Bin; Zou, Zhiyong; Prochaska, Judith J

2018-06-04

The current study aimed to assess the secular trends in overweight and obesity status and high blood pressure (HBP) in Chinese children and adolescents for 2 decades. Data on 943 128 participants aged 7 to 17 years were obtained from the Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health from 1995 to 2014. The population attributable risk of overweight status for HBP was calculated. The prevalence of overweight increased from 4.3% in 1995 to 18.4% in 2014, whereas HBP prevalence fluctuated in the range of 4.4% to 6.4% during the same time period, the lowest in 2005. Within each survey year, blood pressure levels and HBP prevalence increased with higher body mass index. Notably, the population attributable risk of HBP because of being overweight steadily increased from 6.3% in 1995 to 19.2% in 2014. The same trends of linear growth for obesity, fluctuating blood pressure, and its sustained increasing population attributable risk for overweight also occurred among the domestic 29 provinces. Despite dramatic increases in overweight prevalence among Chinese children from 1995 to 2014, the HBP prevalence remained relatively stable, suggesting that other independent factors are affecting HBP trends to a greater extent. Yet, over time, the magnitude of the impact of being overweight or obese on HBP increased sharply, predicting looming heavy burden of HBP. Reductions in overweight status may aid in preventing HBP so as to prevent coronary risk in adulthood. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Use of selected ambulatory dental services in Taiwan before and after global budgeting: a longitudinal study to identify trends in hospital and clinic-based services.

PubMed

Lin, Chienhung; Chao, Hailun

2012-09-25

The Taiwan government adopted National Health Insurance (NHI) in 1995, providing universal health care to all citizens. It was financed by mandatory premium contributions made by employers, employees, and the government. Since then, the government has faced increasing challenges to control NHI expenditures. The aim of this study was to determine trends in the provision of dental services in Taiwan after the implementation of global budgeting in 1998 and to identify areas of possible concern. This longitudinal before/after study was based on data from the National Health Insurance Research Database from 1996 to 2001. These data were subjected to logistic regression analysis. Linear regression analysis was used to examine changes in delivery of specific services after global budgeting implementation. Utilization of hospital and clinic services was compared. Reimbursement for dental services increased significantly while the number of visits per patient remained steady in both hospitals and clinics. In hospitals, visits for root canal procedures, ionomer restoration, tooth extraction and tooth scaling increased significantly. In dental clinics, visits for amalgam restoration decreased significantly while those for ionomer restoration, tooth extraction, and tooth scaling increased significantly. After the adoption of global budgeting, expenditures for dental services increased dramatically while the number of visits per patient did not, indicating a possible shift in patients to hospital facilities that received additional National Health Insurance funding. The identified trends indicate increased utilization of dental services and uneven distribution of care and dentists. These trends may be compromising the quality of dental care delivered in Taiwan.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Long-term longitudinal changes in baseline PSA distribution and estimated prevalence of prostate cancer in male Japanese participants of population-based PSA screening.

PubMed

Oki, Ryo; Ito, Kazuto; Suzuki, Rie; Fujizuka, Yuji; Arai, Seiji; Miyazawa, Yoshiyuki; Sekine, Yoshitaka; Koike, Hidekazu; Matsui, Hiroshi; Shibata, Yasuhiro; Suzuki, Kazuhiro

2018-04-26

Japan has experienced a drastic increase in the incidence of prostate cancer (PC). To assess changes in the risk for PC, we investigated baseline prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels in first-time screened men, across a 25-year period. In total, 72,654 men, aged 50-79, underwent first-time PSA screening in Gunma prefecture between 1992 and 2016. Changes in the distribution of PSA levels were investigated, including the percentage of men with a PSA above cut-off values and linear regression analyses comparing log 10 PSA with age. The 'ultimate incidence' of PC and clinically significant PC (CSPC) were estimated using the PC risk calculator. Changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (AIR) during this period were analyzed. The calculated coefficients of linear regression for age versus log 10 PSA fluctuated during the 25-year period, but no trend was observed. In addition, the percentage of men with a PSA above cut-off values varied in each 5-year period, with no specific trend. The 'risk calculator (RC)-based AIR' of PC and CSPC were stable between 1992 and 2016. Therefore, the baseline risk for developing PC has remained unchanged in the past 25 years, in Japan. The drastic increase in the incidence of PC, beginning around 2000, may be primarily due to increased PSA screening in the country. © 2018 UICC.

Trends in surface ozone over Europe, 1978-1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Low, Pak Sum; Kelly, P. Michael; Davies, Trevor D.

1994-01-01

It has been suggested that surface ozone concentrations in rural areas of Europe have been increasing at a rate of 1 to 3 percent per year over the past two to three decades, presumably due to human influences (Feister and Warmbt, 1987; Bojkov, 1988; Penkett, 1989). Recently, we have analyzed surface ozone data from 20 European stations of differing character (remote, rural, suburban and urban) for a common period of 1978-1988 (Low et al., 1992). It was found that there were pronounced annual and seasonal variations in the linear trends in different areas, and there was no dominant region-wide trend. In spring and, most notably, summer, stations on the maritime fringe of the network generally exhibited negative trends whilst those located further into the continental interior exhibited positive trends. In winter, most of the stations in the network exhibited positive trends. Relatively few of these trends were statistically significant. This paper updates our earlier analysis by extending the data sets of the network up to the year 1990. The spatial variations in surface ozone trends over the extended period 1978-1990 are examined and discussed in comparison to the 1978-1988 patterns. The update confirms the overall conclusions of the earlier analysis, specifically that caution should be exercised in interpreting the results of trend analyses based on station data representative of a limited period of time and/or geographical area.

More tornadoes in the most extreme U.S. tornado outbreaks.

PubMed

Tippett, Michael K; Lepore, Chiara; Cohen, Joel E

2016-12-16

Tornadoes and severe thunderstorms kill people and damage property every year. Estimated U.S. insured losses due to severe thunderstorms in the first half of 2016 were $8.5 billion (US). The largest U.S. effects of tornadoes result from tornado outbreaks, which are sequences of tornadoes that occur in close succession. Here, using extreme value analysis, we find that the frequency of U.S. outbreaks with many tornadoes is increasing and that it is increasing faster for more extreme outbreaks. We model this behavior by extreme value distributions with parameters that are linear functions of time or of some indicators of multidecadal climatic variability. Extreme meteorological environments associated with severe thunderstorms show consistent upward trends, but the trends do not resemble those currently expected to result from global warming. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Impact of the Economic Downturn on Elective Cervical Spine Surgery in the United States: A National Trend Analysis, 2003-2013.

PubMed

Bernstein, David N; Jain, Amit; Brodell, David; Li, Yue; Rubery, Paul T; Mesfin, Addisu

2016-12-01

To analyze overall trends of elective cervical spine surgery in the United States from 2003 to 2013 with the goal of determining whether the economic downturn had an impact. Codes from the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification were used to identify elective cervical spine surgery procedures in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2003 to 2013. National Health Expenditure, gross domestic product, and S&P 500 Index were used as measures of economic performance. The economic downturn was defined as 2008-2009. Confidence intervals were determined using subgroup analysis techniques. Linear regressions were completed to determine the association between surgery trends and economic conditions. From 2003 to 2013, posterior cervical fusions saw a 102.7% increase. During the same time frame, there was a 7.4% and 14.7% decrease in the number of anterior cervical diskectomy and fusions (ACDFs) and posterior decompressions, respectively. The trend of elective cervical spine surgeries per 100,000 persons in the U.S. population may have been affected by the economic downturn from 2008 to 2009 (-0.03% growth). The percentage of procedures paid for by private insurance decreased from 2003 to 2013 for all ACDFs, posterior cervical fusions, and posterior decompressions. The linear regression coefficients (β) and R 2 values between the number of surgeries and each of the macroeconomic factors analyzed were not statistically significant. The overall elective cervical spine surgery trend was not likely impacted by the economic downturn. Posterior cervical fusions grew significantly from 2003 to 2013, whereas ACDFs and posterior decompressions decreased. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic model evaluation for secondary inorganic aerosol and its precursors over Europe between 1990 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, S.; Schaap, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Manders, A. M. M.; Segers, A. J.; Visschedijk, A. J. H.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Kuenen, J. J. P.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L. H.; Cofala, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

2015-04-01

In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS (LOng Term Ozone Simulation - EURopean Operational Smog) to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear responses to emission changes and interannual variability of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The 20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological data provided by RACMO2 (Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel). Observations at European rural background sites have been used as a reference for the model evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data, stringent selection criteria were applied, including a comprehensive visual screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model was able to capture a large part of the seasonal and interannual variability of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all considered sulfur and nitrogen components following the implementation of emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both the observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990s, while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000 and 2009. Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed trends in sulfate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations. The model captured well these non-linear responses to the emission changes. Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module, trends in the formation efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The exercise has revealed a 20-50% more efficient sulfate formation in 2009 compared to 1990 and an up to 20% more efficient nitrate formation per unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the non-linear responses. However, we have also identified some weaknesses in the model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentration trends. Moreover, model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990s used in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial distribution.

Dynamic model evaluation for secondary inorganic aerosol and its precursors over Europe between 1990 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banzhaf, S.; Schaap, M.; Kranenburg, R.; Manders, A. M. M.; Segers, A. J.; Visschedijk, A. H. J.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Kuenen, J. J. P.; van Meijgaard, E.; van Ulft, L. H.; Cofala, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

2014-07-01

In this study we present a dynamic model evaluation of the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to analyse the ability of the model to reproduce observed non-linear responses to emission changes and interannual variability of secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) and its precursors over Europe from 1990 to 2009. The 20 year simulation was performed using a consistent set of meteorological data provided by the regional climate model RACMO2. Observations at European rural background sites have been used as reference for the model evaluation. To ensure the consistency of the used observational data stringent selection criteria were applied including a comprehensive visual screening to remove suspicious data from the analysis. The LOTOS-EUROS model was able to capture a large part of the day-to-day, seasonal and interannual variability of SIA and its precursors' concentrations. The dynamic evaluation has shown that the model is able to simulate the declining trends observed for all considered sulphur and nitrogen components following the implementation of emission abatement strategies for SIA precursors over Europe. Both, the observations and the model show the largest part of the decline in the 1990's while smaller concentration changes and an increasing number of non-significant trends are observed and modelled between 2000-2009. Furthermore, the results confirm former studies showing that the observed trends in sulphate and total nitrate concentrations from 1990 to 2009 are significantly lower than the trends in precursor emissions and precursor concentrations. The model captured these non-linear responses to the emission changes well. Using the LOTOS-EUROS source apportionment module trends in formation efficiency of SIA have been quantified for four European regions. The exercise has revealed a 20-50% more efficient sulphate formation in 2009 compared to 1990 and an up to 20% more efficient nitrate formation per unit nitrogen oxide emission, which added to the explanation of the non-linear responses. However, we have also identified some weaknesses to the model and the input data. LOTOS-EUROS underestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentrations throughout the whole time period, while it overestimates the observed nitrogen dioxide concentration trends. Moreover, model results suggest that the emission information of the early 1990's used in this study needs to be improved concerning magnitude and spatial distribution.

Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

PubMed

Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

2015-01-01

The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P < 0.05) and best performance compared to linear and exponential models. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict LF cases for a prospective 5 years period, covering 2013-2017. The two-stage predictive model of LF case-pattern between 2013 and 2017 was characterized by a prospective decline within the South-coast County of Grand Bassa over the forecast period and an upward case-trend within the Northern County of Nimba. Case specific exponential increase was predicted for the first 2 years (2013-2014) with a geometric increase over the next 3 years (2015-2017) in Nimba County. This paper describes a translational application of the space-time distribution pattern of LF epidemics, 2008-2012 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

The changes in the frequency of daily precipitation in Urmia Lake basin, Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salehi Bavil, Sepideh; Zeinalzadeh, Kamran; Hessari, Behzad

2017-06-01

Urmia Lake, as one of the most valuable saline ecosystems in the world, has faced a sharp drop in the water level in recent years. The trend studies of climatic parameters can be effective in identifying the responsible factors and managing this crisis. This research investigated the frequency trend of daily precipitation in the ranges of less than 5 mm, 5-10 mm, 10-15 mm, 15-20 mm, and more than 20 mm in the Urmia Lake basin. The trend was assessed using Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho and linear regression tests on 60 stations during a period of 30 years (1981 to 2011). The results showed that in all the three tests, the frequency of daily precipitation of less than 5 mm had a significant increase at 1% level. The 5-10 mm range displayed no significant trend, while the 10-15 mm range showed a significantly decreasing trend. The frequency in the 15-20 mm and above 20 mm ranges showed an insignificant falling trend. The analysis also indicated jumps in 1996 and 1999 (almost coinciding with the sharp drop in the lake's water level). In other words, the frequency trends of daily precipitation with small amounts (as a result, high evapotranspiration loss) were increasing and with large amounts were decreasing. This can be a contributor to reduced run-off and, hence, decreased water entering the lake. The results emphasize the need for changes in the management and consumption of water resources in the basin, in order to adapt to the climatic change.

20th-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Variation in Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

Twentieth-century trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the African continent are analyzed from observational data sets and historical climate simulations. Given the agricultural economy of the continent, a seasonal perspective is adopted as it is more pertinent than an annual-average one which can mask off-setting but agriculturally-sensitive seasonal hydroclimate variations. Examination of linear trends in seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) shows that heat stress has increased in several regions, including Sudan and Northern Africa where largest SAT trends occur in the warm season. Broadly speaking, the northern continent has warmed more than the southern one in all seasons. Precipitation trends are varied but notable declining trends are found in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, especially in the source region of Niger river in West Africa, and in the Congo river basin. Rainfall over the African Great Lakes - one of the largest freshwater repositories - has however increased. We show that the Sahara Desert has expanded significantly over the 20th century - by 12-20% depending on the season. The desert expanded southward in summer, reflecting retreat of the northern edge of the Sahel rainfall belt; and to the north in winter, indicating potential impact of the widening of the Tropics. Specific mechanisms driving the expansion in each season are investigated. Finally, this observational analysis is used to evaluate the state-of-the-art climate models from a comparison of the 20th-century hydroclimate trends with those manifest in historical climate simulations. The evaluation shows that modeling regional hydroclimate change over the Africa continent remains challenging.

6,220 institutionalised people with intellectual disability referred for visual assessment between 1993 and 2003: overview and trends.

PubMed

van Isterdael, C E D; Stilma, J S; Bezemer, P D; Tijmes, N T

2006-10-01

To summarise the results of visual performance tests and other data of institutionalised people with intellectual disability referred to a visual advisory centre (VAC) between 1993 and 2003, and to determine trends in these data. A retrospective medical record review was undertaken of 6,220 consecutive people examined ophthalmologically according to a standard protocol by one VAC that specialised in visual assessment and treatment of people with intellectual disability, between 1993 and 2003. chi2 test for linear trend was used and linear regression coefficients were calculated. The proportion of people aged > or =50 years increased from 19.3% to 34.2% between 1995 and 2003 (p<0.001); the combined figure of severe or profound intellectual disability decreased from 80.0% to 52.6% (p<0.001); the proportion of mobile people increased from 52.1% to 98.0% (p<0.001); the combined proportion of people with visual impairment or blindness decreased from 70.9% to 22.9% (p<0.001), and that of people with visual disorders decreased from 89.6% to 75.3% (p<0.001). Causes of intellectual disability were identified in 58.4% people; 20.8% had Down's syndrome. Many ocular diagnoses were found, indicating the need for ophthalmological monitoring. Specialised centres are helpful, because assessment and treatment of people with intellectual disability is complicated and time consuming. Protocols for efficient referral will have to be developed. A major task lies ahead to improve the treatment rates of refractive errors, cataract and strabismus, and to find specific causes of intellectual disability.

Perpendicular diffusion of a dilute beam of charged dust particles in a strongly coupled dusty plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bin; Goree, J.

2014-06-01

The diffusion of projectiles drifting through a target of strongly coupled dusty plasma is investigated in a simulation. A projectile's drift is driven by a constant force F. We characterize the random walk of the projectiles in the direction perpendicular to their drift. The perpendicular diffusion coefficient Dp⊥ is obtained from the simulation data. The force dependence of Dp⊥ is found to be a power law in a high force regime, but a constant at low forces. A mean kinetic energy Wp for perpendicular motion is also obtained. The diffusion coefficient is found to increase with Wp with a linear trend at higher energies, but an exponential trend at lower energies.

Annual trend patterns of phytoplankton species abundance belie homogeneous taxonomical group responses to climate in the NE Atlantic upwelling.

PubMed

Bode, Antonio; Estévez, M Graciela; Varela, Manuel; Vilar, José A

2015-09-01

Phytoplankton is a sentinel of marine ecosystem change. Composed by many species with different life-history strategies, it rapidly responds to environment changes. An analysis of the abundance of 54 phytoplankton species in Galicia (NW Spain) between 1989 and 2008 to determine the main components of temporal variability in relation to climate and upwelling showed that most of this variability was stochastic, as seasonality and long term trends contributed to relatively small fractions of the series. In general, trends appeared as non linear, and species clustered in 4 groups according to the trend pattern but there was no defined pattern for diatoms, dinoflagellates or other groups. While, in general, total abundance increased, no clear trend was found for 23 species, 14 species decreased, 4 species increased during the early 1990s, and only 13 species showed a general increase through the series. In contrast, series of local environmental conditions (temperature, stratification, nutrients) and climate-related variables (atmospheric pressure indices, upwelling winds) showed a high fraction of their variability in deterministic seasonality and trends. As a result, each species responded independently to environmental and climate variability, measured by generalized additive models. Most species showed a positive relationship with nutrient concentrations but only a few showed a direct relationship with stratification and upwelling. Climate variables had only measurable effects on some species but no common response emerged. Because its adaptation to frequent disturbances, phytoplankton communities in upwelling ecosystems appear less sensitive to changes in regional climate than other communities characterized by short and well defined productive periods. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Trend in active transportation to school among Swiss school children and its associated factors: three cross-sectional surveys 1994, 2000 and 2005

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Giving the rising trend in childhood obesity in many countries including Switzerland, strategies to increase physical activity such as promoting active school travel are important. Yet, little is known about time trends of active commuting in Swiss schoolchildren and factors associated with changes in walking and biking to school. Methods Between 1994 and 2005, information about mobility behaviour of children aged 6-14 years was collected within three Swiss population based national travel behaviour surveys. Mode of transport to school was reported for 4244 children. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess active school travel time trends and their influencing factors. Results More than 70% of Swiss children walked or biked to school. Nevertheless, the proportion of children biking to school decreased (p = 0.05, linear trend), predominately in urban areas, and motorized transportation increased since 1994 (p = 0.02). Distance to school did not change significantly over time but availability of bikes decreased (p < 0.001) and number of cars per household increased (p < 0.001). The association between survey year and bike use was significantly modified by living in an urban area (OR (95%CI): 1.0, 0.63 (0.44-0.90), 0.71 (0.49-1.03), respectively for 1994, 2000 and 2005) and by distance to school (OR (95%CI): 1.0, 0.65 (0.40-1.05), 0.50 (0.23-0.79) for the same years and for children who lived more than a mile away from school). Conclusions Programs to encourage safe biking and to limit car use as mode of transport to school are warranted to stop this trend. PMID:20398320

Skillful prediction of hot temperature extremes over the source region of ancient Silk Road.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingyong; Yang, Zhanmei; Wu, Lingyun

2018-04-27

The source region of ancient Silk Road (SRASR) in China, a region of around 150 million people, faces a rapidly increased risk of extreme heat in summer. In this study, we develop statistical models to predict summer hot temperature extremes over the SRASR based on a timescale decomposition approach. Results show that after removing the linear trends, the inter-annual components of summer hot days and heatwaves over the SRASR are significantly related with those of spring soil temperature over Central Asia and sea surface temperature over Northwest Atlantic while their inter-decadal components are closely linked to those of spring East Pacific/North Pacific pattern and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for 1979-2016. The physical processes involved are also discussed. Leave-one-out cross-validation for detrended 1979-2016 time series indicates that the statistical models based on identified spring predictors can predict 47% and 57% of the total variances of summer hot days and heatwaves averaged over the SRASR, respectively. When the linear trends are put back, the prediction skills increase substantially to 64% and 70%. Hindcast experiments for 2012-2016 show high skills in predicting spatial patterns of hot temperature extremes over the SRASR. The statistical models proposed herein can be easily applied to operational seasonal forecasting.

Application of wavelet based MFDFA on Mueller matrix images for cervical pre-cancer detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaffar, Mohammad; Pradhan, Asima

2018-02-01

A systematic study has been conducted on application of wavelet based multifractal de-trended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) on Mueller matrix (MM) images of cervical tissue sections for early cancer detection. Changes in multiple scattering and orientation of fibers are observed by utilizing a discrete wavelet transform (Daubechies) which identifies fluctuations over polynomial trends. Fluctuation profiles, after 9th level decomposition, for all elements of MM qualitatively establish a demarcation of different grades of cancer from normal tissue. Moreover, applying MFDFA on MM images, Hurst exponent profiles for images of MM qualitatively are seen to display differences. In addition, the values of Hurst exponent increase for the diagonal elements of MM with increasing grades of the cervical cancer, while the value for the elements which correspond to linear polarizance decrease. However, for circular polarizance the value increases with increasing grades. These fluctuation profiles reveal the trend of local variation of refractive -indices and along with Hurst exponent profile, may serve as a useful biological metric in the early detection of cervical cancer. The quantitative measurements of Hurst exponent for diagonal and first column (polarizance governing elements) elements which reflect changes in multiple scattering and structural anisotropy in stroma, may be sensitive indicators of pre-cancer.

Numerical calculations of spectral turnover and synchrotron self-absorption in CSS and GPS radio sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeyakumar, S.

2016-06-01

The dependence of the turnover frequency on the linear size is presented for a sample of Giga-hertz Peaked Spectrum and Compact Steep Spectrum radio sources derived from complete samples. The dependence of the luminosity of the emission at the peak frequency with the linear size and the peak frequency is also presented for the galaxies in the sample. The luminosity of the smaller sources evolve strongly with the linear size. Optical depth effects have been included to the 3D model for the radio source of Kaiser to study the spectral turnover. Using this model, the observed trend can be explained by synchrotron self-absorption. The observed trend in the peak-frequency-linear-size plane is not affected by the luminosity evolution of the sources.

Fertility time trends in dairy herds in northern Portugal.

PubMed

Rocha, A; Martins, A; Carvalheira, J

2010-10-01

The economics of dairy production are in great part dictated by the reproductive efficiency of the herds. Many studies have reported a widespread decrease in fertility of dairy cows. In a previous work (Rocha et al. 2001), we found a very poor oestrus detection rate (38%), and consequently a delayed calving to 1st AI and calving to conception intervals. However, a good conception rate at 1st AI was noted (51%) resulting in a low number of inseminations per pregnancy (IAP) (1.4). Here, results from a subsequent fertility time trend assessment study carried out in the same region for cows born from 1992 to 2002 are reported. Statistical linear models were used to analyse the data. Estimate linear contrasts of least square means were computed from each model. The number of observations per studied index varied from 12,130 (culling rate) to 57,589 (non-return rate). Mean age at first calving was 28.9 ± 0.14 months, without (p > 0.05) variation over time. There was a small, but significant (p < 0.05), deterioration of all other parameters. Non-return rates at 90 days and calving rate at 1st AI decreased 0.3% per trimester, with a consequent increase of 0.04 IA/parturition. Oestrus detection rate decreased 0.13% per year, and calving at 1st AI and calving-conception intervals increased 0.17 and 0.07 days/year respectively, while intercalving interval increased 1.7 days per year. From 12,130 cows calving, only 1,816 had a 4th lactation (85% culling/losses). The data was not meant to draw conclusions on the causes for the decreased fertility over time, but an increase of milk production from 6537 kg to 8590 kg (305 days) from 1996 to 2002 is probably one factor to take into consideration. Specific measures to revert or slow down this trend of decreasing fertility are warranted. Available strategies are discussed. © 2009 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Trends in prescribing of sedative-hypnotic medications in the United States: 1993–2010

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Christopher N.; Spira, Adam P.; Alexander, Caleb; Rutkow, Lainie; Mojtabai, Ramin

2016-01-01

PURPOSE Non-benzodiazepine receptor agonists (nBZRAs) were developed as an alternative to benzodiazepines (BZDs) to treat insomnia. Little is known how the introduction of nBZRAs influenced trends in BZD prescribing. We examined BZD and nBZRA prescribing trends from 1993 to 2010. METHODS We used the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey to examine 516,118 patient visits between 1993 and 2010. We categorized visits as BZD, nBZRA, or BZD+nBZRA visits based on medications prescribed each visit and applied linear probability regression models to assess trends in visits. RESULTS Increases were observed in proportions of visits that were BZD (2.6% in 1993 to 4.4% in 2010, p<0.001) and nBZRA (0% to 1.4%, p<0.001). Increases in BZD visits were primarily after 2002, with prescribing in the preceding years remaining relatively stable. We also found increases in BZD+nBZRA visits (0% to 0.4%, p<0.001). Among patients with sleep disorders, there was an increase in nBZRA visits (2.3% to 13.7%, p<0.001), and decline in BZD visits (23.5% to 10.8%, p=0.015). Just under a third (30.8%) of any-sedative hypnotic visits were for adults aged 65+, among whom increases in BZD, nBZRA, and BZD+nBZRA visits were observed across the study period. CONCLUSIONS There were increases in prescribing of nBZRAs between 1993 and 2010. Increases in prescribing of BZDs were also observed, especially after 2002. The introduction of nBZRAs likely resulted in declines in BZD prescribing among those with a sleep disorder, but not other groups. Delivery of behavioral treatments should be encouraged to avert adverse outcomes associated with sedative-hypnotic use. PMID:26711081

Forest insects and climate change: long-term trends in herbivore damage.

PubMed

Klapwijk, Maartje J; Csóka, György; Hirka, Anikó; Björkman, Christer

2013-10-01

Long-term data sets, covering several decades, could help to reveal the effects of observed climate change on herbivore damage to plants. However, sufficiently long time series in ecology are scarce. The research presented here analyzes a long-term data set collected by the Hungarian Forest Research Institute over the period 1961-2009. The number of hectares with visible defoliation was estimated and documented for several forest insect pest species. This resulted in a unique time series that provides us with the opportunity to compare insect damage trends with trends in weather patterns. Data were analyzed for six lepidopteran species: Thaumetopoea processionea, Tortrix viridana, Rhyacionia buoliana, Malacosoma neustria, Euproctis chrysorrhoea, and Lymantria dispar. All these species exhibit outbreak dynamics in Hungary. Five of these species prefer deciduous tree species as their host plants, whereas R. buoliana is a specialist on Pinus spp. The data were analyzed using general linear models and generalized least squares regression in relation to mean monthly temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased considerably, especially over the last 25 years (+1.6°C), whereas precipitation exhibited no trend over the period. No change in weather variability over time was observed. There was increased damage caused by two species on deciduous trees. The area of damage attributed to R. buoliana decreased over the study period. There was no evidence of increased variability in damage. We conclude that species exhibiting a trend toward outbreak-level damage over a greater geographical area may be positively affected by changes in weather conditions coinciding with important life stages. Strong associations between the geographical extent of severe damage and monthly temperature and precipitation are difficult to confirm, studying the life-history traits of species could help to increase understanding of responses to climate change.

Increased maternal plasma leptin in early pregnancy and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Qiu, Chunfang; Williams, Michelle A; Vadachkoria, Surab; Frederick, Ihunnaya O; Luthy, David A

2004-03-01

Emerging evidence suggests that leptin, an adipocyte-derived hormone, may have independent direct effects on both insulin secretion and action, in addition to its well documented effects on appetite and energy expenditure. Some, but not all, previously published studies suggest that maternal leptin concentrations may be increased in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). We examined the association between plasma leptin concentration and GDM risk. Women were recruited before 16 weeks of gestation and were followed up until delivery. Maternal plasma leptin concentrations (collected at 13 weeks of gestation) were measured by using immunoassay. We used generalized linear models to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals. GDM developed in 5.7% of the cohort (47 of 823). Elevated leptin concentrations were positively associated with GDM risk (P for trend <.001). After adjusting for maternal prepregnancy adiposity and other confounders, women with leptin concentrations of 31.0 ng/mL or higher experienced a 4.7-fold increased risk of GDM (95% confidence interval 1.2, 18.0) as compared with women who had concentrations of 14.3 ng/mL or lower. We noted a strong linear component of trend in risk of GDM with increasing maternal plasma leptin concentration. Each 10-ng/mL increase in the leptin concentration was associated with a 20% increase in GDM risk (relative risk 1.2; 95% confidence interval 1.0, 1.3). Hyperleptinemia, independent of maternal adiposity, in early pregnancy appears to be predictive of an increased risk of GDM later in pregnancy. Additional larger prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm and more precisely assess the etiologic importance of hyperleptinemia in pregnancy. II-2

Hierarchical Linear Modeling Analyses of NEO-PI-R Scales In the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging

PubMed Central

Terracciano, Antonio; McCrae, Robert R.; Brant, Larry J.; Costa, Paul T.

2009-01-01

We examined age trends in the five factors and 30 facets assessed by the Revised NEO Personality Inventory in Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging data (N = 1,944; 5,027 assessments) collected between 1989 and 2004. Consistent with cross-sectional results, Hierarchical Linear Modeling analyses showed gradual personality changes in adulthood: a decline up to age 80 in Neuroticism, stability and then decline in Extraversion, decline in Openness, increase in Agreeableness, and increase up to age 70 in Conscientiousness. Some facets showed different curves from the factor they define. Birth cohort effects were modest, and there were no consistent Gender × Age interactions. Significant non-normative changes were found for all five factors; they were not explained by attrition but might be due to genetic factors, disease, or life experience. PMID:16248708

Effect of the Time to Change anti-stigma campaign on trends in mental-illness-related public stigma among the English population in 2003-13: an analysis of survey data.

PubMed

Evans-Lacko, Sara; Corker, Elizabeth; Williams, Paul; Henderson, Claire; Thornicroft, Graham

2014-07-01

Understanding trends and effective mechanisms that are likely to reduce public stigma and discrimination towards people with mental illness is important. We aimed to assess changes in public stigma in England after the introduction of the Time to Change anti-stigma campaign. We used data from the 2003 and 2007-13 national Attitudes to Mental Illness surveys to investigate 10-year trends in public attitudes across England before and during the Time to Change anti-stigma campaign. We present annual mean scores for attitude items related to prejudice and exclusion, and tolerance and support for community care. We also present an extrapolated linear trend line for the years 2009-13 and estimate population attitude scores without the campaign. We present unadjusted and adjusted linear regression models. In addition, we used multivariable linear regression models fitted to data aggregated by region to investigate whether a dose-effect response exists between campaign awareness and regional outcomes related to knowledge, attitudes, and intended behaviour. About 1700 respondents were surveyed each year. Significant increases in positive attitudes related to prejudice and exclusion occurred after the Time to Change campaign. In the multivariable analysis, we noted a significant increase in positive attitudes in relation to prejudice and exclusion after the launch of Time to Change (reverse-coded Z score 0·02, 95% CI 0·01 to 0·05; p=0·01), but not for tolerance and support for community care (Z score 0·01, -0·01 to 0·03; p=0·27). We also found evidence for a dose-effect relation between campaign awareness and regional improvement in knowledge (p=0·004) and attitudes (tolerance and support p<0·0001; prejudice and exclusion p=0·001), but not intended behaviour (p=0·20). The positive effects of Time to Change seem to be significant and moderate. Although attitudes are probably more at risk of deterioration during times of economic hardship, anti-stigma programmes might still play an active part in long-term reduction of stigma and discrimination, especially in relation to prejudice and exclusion of people with mental health problems. UK Department of Health, Comic Relief, Big Lottery. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Circulating interleukin-8 and tumor necrosis factor-α are associated with hot flashes in healthy postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Huang, Wan-Yu; Hsin, I-Lun; Chen, Dar-Ren; Chang, Chia-Chu; Kor, Chew-Teng; Chen, Ting-Yu; Wu, Hung-Ming

2017-01-01

Hot flashes have been postulated to be linked to systemic inflammation. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between hot flashes, pro-inflammatory factors, and leukocytes in healthy, non-obese postmenopausal women. In this cross-sectional study, a total of 202 women aged 45-60 years were stratified into one of four groups according to their hot-flash status: never experienced hot flashes (Group N), mild hot flashes (Group m), moderate hot flashes (Group M), and severe hot flashes (Group S). Variables measured in this study included clinical parameters, hot flash experience, leukocytes, and fasting plasma levels of nine circulating cytokines/chemokines measured by using multiplex assays. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the associations of hot flashes with these pro-inflammatory factors. The study was performed in a hospital medical center. The mean values of leukocyte number were not different between these four groups. The hot flash status had a positive tendency toward increased levels of circulating IL-6 (P-trend = 0.049), IL-8 (P-trend < 0.001), TNF-α (P-trend = 0.008), and MIP1β (P-trend = 0.04). Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that hot-flash severity was significantly associated with IL-8 (P-trend < 0.001) and TNFα (P-trend = 0.007) among these nine cytokines/chemokines after adjustment for age, menopausal duration, BMI and FSH. Multivariate analysis further revealed that severe hot flashes were strongly associated with a higher IL-8 (% difference, 37.19%; 95% confidence interval, 14.98,63.69; P < 0.001) and TNFα (51.27%; 6.64,114.57; P < 0.05). The present study provides evidence that hot flashes are associated with circulating IL-8 and TNF-α in healthy postmenopausal women. It suggests that hot flashes might be related to low-grade systemic inflammation.

Circulating interleukin-8 and tumor necrosis factor-α are associated with hot flashes in healthy postmenopausal women

PubMed Central

Huang, Wan-Yu; Hsin, I-Lun; Chen, Dar-Ren; Chang, Chia-Chu; Kor, Chew-Teng; Chen, Ting-Yu

2017-01-01

Introduction Hot flashes have been postulated to be linked to systemic inflammation. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between hot flashes, pro-inflammatory factors, and leukocytes in healthy, non-obese postmenopausal women. Participants and design In this cross-sectional study, a total of 202 women aged 45–60 years were stratified into one of four groups according to their hot-flash status: never experienced hot flashes (Group N), mild hot flashes (Group m), moderate hot flashes (Group M), and severe hot flashes (Group S). Variables measured in this study included clinical parameters, hot flash experience, leukocytes, and fasting plasma levels of nine circulating cytokines/chemokines measured by using multiplex assays. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the associations of hot flashes with these pro-inflammatory factors. Settings The study was performed in a hospital medical center. Results The mean values of leukocyte number were not different between these four groups. The hot flash status had a positive tendency toward increased levels of circulating IL-6 (P-trend = 0.049), IL-8 (P-trend < 0.001), TNF-α (P-trend = 0.008), and MIP1β (P-trend = 0.04). Multivariate linear regression analysis revealed that hot-flash severity was significantly associated with IL-8 (P-trend < 0.001) and TNFα (P-trend = 0.007) among these nine cytokines/chemokines after adjustment for age, menopausal duration, BMI and FSH. Multivariate analysis further revealed that severe hot flashes were strongly associated with a higher IL-8 (% difference, 37.19%; 95% confidence interval, 14.98,63.69; P < 0.001) and TNFα (51.27%; 6.64,114.57; P < 0.05). Conclusion The present study provides evidence that hot flashes are associated with circulating IL-8 and TNF-α in healthy postmenopausal women. It suggests that hot flashes might be related to low-grade systemic inflammation. PMID:28846735

20-year trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity among children aged 0-6 in Harbin, China: A multiple cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Liu, Wei; Li, Hui; Li, Jia; Wang, Hai-Jun

2018-01-01

To examine the 20-year trends in the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity among children aged 0–6 years between 1995 and 2015 in Harbin, China, we selected altogether 49,553 children aged 0–6 years old by using a multistage stratified cluster sampling methods in Harbin, one provincial capital city in northeast China in 1995, 2005 and 2015. Height and weight information of the children were collected. We used the child growth standards of World Health Organization to calculate the Z-scores for body mass index (BMI). Cut-offs recommended by World Health Organization and International Obesity Task Force were used to define overweight and obesity for each children. We found there is no difference between boys’ BMI and girls’ among newborns in each survey point (p>0.05), but in older age groups, the BMI of boys was higher than that of girls (p<0.05). From 1995 to 2015, the average BMI was increasing continuously among boys older than 42 months and girls older than 48 months (p<0.01 for linear trend across year) in Harbin. The combined prevalence of overweight and obesity increased from 2.6% in 1995 to 7.6% in 2015. For every 10-year the risk of combined overweight and obesity in children aged 0–6 years increased by 167% (95%CI: 146%, 188%, p<0.01). The combined prevalence of overweight and obesity in most age subgroups showed an increasing trend over time (p<0.01 for trend test across survey year). The age when the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity dramatically increased was earlier in 2015 than that in 2005 and 1995. In conclusion, there was an increasing trend of the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity during the past 20 years in Harbin and the age when the prevalence dramatically increased became earlier. Comprehensive intervention should be undertaken among younger children to prevent and control children’s overweight and obesity. PMID:29864123

Association of Football Subconcussive Head Impacts With Ocular Near Point of Convergence.

PubMed

Kawata, Keisuke; Rubin, Leah H; Lee, Jong Hyun; Sim, Thomas; Takahagi, Masahiro; Szwanki, Victor; Bellamy, Al; Darvish, Kurosh; Assari, Soroush; Henderer, Jeffrey D; Tierney, Ryan; Langford, Dianne

2016-07-01

An increased understanding of the relationship between subconcussive head impacts and near point of convergence (NPC) ocular-motor function may be useful in delineating traumatic brain injury. To investigate whether repetitive subconcussive head impacts during preseason football practice cause changes in NPC. This prospective, observational study of 29 National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I football players included baseline and preseason practices (1 noncontact and 4 contact), and postseason follow-up and outcome measures were obtained for each time. An accelerometer-embedded mouthguard measured head impact kinematics. Based on the sum of head impacts from all 5 practices, players were categorized into lower (n = 7) or higher (n = 22) impact groups. Players participated in regular practices, and all head impacts greater than 10g from the 5 practices were recorded using the i1Biometerics Vector mouthguard (i1 Biometrics Inc). Near point of convergence measures and symptom scores. A total of 1193 head impacts were recorded from 5 training camp practices in the 29 collegiate football players; 22 were categorized into the higher-impact group and 7 into the lower-impact group. There were significant differences in head impact kinematics between lower- and higher-impact groups (number of impacts, 6 vs 41 [lower impact minus higher impact = 35; 95% CI, 21-51; P < .001]; linear acceleration, 99g vs 1112g [lower impact minus higher impact= 1013; 95% CI, 621 - 1578; P < .001]; angular acceleration, 7589 radian/s2 vs 65 016 radian/s2 [lower impact minus higher impact= 57 427; 95% CI , 31 123-80 498; P < .001], respectively). The trajectory and cumulative burden of subconcussive impacts on NPC differed by group (F for group × linear trend1, 238 = 12.14, P < .001 and F for group × quadratic trend1, 238 = 12.97, P < .001). In the higher-impact group, there was a linear increase in NPC over time (B for linear trend, unstandardized coefficient [SE]:  0.76 [0.12], P < .001) that plateaued and resolved by postseason follow-up (B for quadratic trend [SE]: -0.06 [0.008], P < .001). In the lower-impact group, there was no change in NPC over time. Group differences were first observed after the first contact practice and remained until the final full-gear practice. No group differences were observed postseason follow-up. There were no differences in symptom scores between groups over time. Although asymptomatic, these data suggest that repetitive subconcussive head impacts were associated with changes in NPC. The increase in NPC highlights the vulnerability and slow recovery of the ocular-motor system following subconcussive head impacts. Changes in NPC may become a useful clinical tool in deciphering brain injury severity.

Brain cancer incidence trends in relation to cellular telephone use in the United States.

PubMed

Inskip, Peter D; Hoover, Robert N; Devesa, Susan S

2010-11-01

The use of cellular telephones has grown explosively during the past two decades, and there are now more than 279 million wireless subscribers in the United States. If cellular phone use causes brain cancer, as some suggest, the potential public health implications could be considerable. One might expect the effects of such a prevalent exposure to be reflected in general population incidence rates, unless the induction period is very long or confined to very long-term users. To address this issue, we examined temporal trends in brain cancer incidence rates in the United States, using data collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Log-linear models were used to estimate the annual percent change in rates among whites. With the exception of the 20-29-year age group, the trends for 1992-2006 were downward or flat. Among those aged 20-29 years, there was a statistically significant increasing trend between 1992 and 2006 among females but not among males. The recent trend in 20-29-year-old women was driven by a rising incidence of frontal lobe cancers. No increases were apparent for temporal or parietal lobe cancers, or cancers of the cerebellum, which involve the parts of the brain that would be more highly exposed to radiofrequency radiation from cellular phones. Frontal lobe cancer rates also rose among 20-29-year-old males, but the increase began earlier than among females and before cell phone use was highly prevalent. Overall, these incidence data do not provide support to the view that cellular phone use causes brain cancer.

Epidemiology of imported malaria among children and young adults in Barcelona (1990-2008)

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Increasing international travel and migration is producing changes in trends in infectious diseases, especially in children from many European cities. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology and determine the trends of imported malaria in patients under 20 years old in the city of Barcelona, Spain, during an 18-year period. Methods The study included malaria cases that were laboratory confirmed and reported to the malaria register at the Public Health Agency of Barcelona from 1990 to 2008, residing in Barcelona and less than 20 years old. Patients were classified as natives (born in Spain) or immigrants. Differences in the distribution of demographic, clinical characteristics, and incidence per 100,000 person-year evolution were analysed. Natives and immigrants were compared by logistic regression by calculating the odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) and Chi-square for a linear trend (p < 0.05). Results Of the total 174 cases, 143 (82.1%) were immigrants, 100 (57.5%) were female, 121 (69.5%) Plasmodium falciparum, and 108 (62.1%) were visiting friends and relatives (VFR) as the reason for travel. Among the immigrants, 99 (67.8%) were from Equatorial Guinea. Immigrant cases more frequently travelled to Africa than natives (p = 0.02). The factors associated with imported malaria among immigrant residents was travelling for VFR (OR: 6.2 CI 1.9-20.2) and age 15-19 (OR: 3.7 CI 1-13.3). The incidence increased from 1990 to 1999 (p < 0.001) and decreased from 2000 to 2008 (p = 0.01), although the global linear trend was not statistically significant (p = 0.41). The fatality rate was 0.5%. Conclusions The majority of cases of malaria in population less than 20 years in Barcelona were immigrants, travelling to Africa for VFR and Plasmodium falciparum was most frequently detected. The trend analysis of the entire study period did not show a statistically significant decline. It is recommended to be aware of malaria, especially among children of immigrants who travel to their parent's home country for VFR. Better access to pre travel advice should be provided. PMID:22118531

Epidemiology of imported malaria among children and young adults in Barcelona (1990-2008).

PubMed

Garcia-Villarrubia, Mireia; Millet, Juan-Pablo; de Olalla, Patricia Garcia; Gascón, Joaquim; Fumadó, Victoria; i Prat, Jordi Gómez; Treviño, Begoña; Pinazo, María-Jesús; Cabezos, Juan; Muñoz, José; Zarzuela, Francesc; Caylà, Joan A

2011-11-25

Increasing international travel and migration is producing changes in trends in infectious diseases, especially in children from many European cities. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology and determine the trends of imported malaria in patients under 20 years old in the city of Barcelona, Spain, during an 18-year period. The study included malaria cases that were laboratory confirmed and reported to the malaria register at the Public Health Agency of Barcelona from 1990 to 2008, residing in Barcelona and less than 20 years old. Patients were classified as natives (born in Spain) or immigrants. Differences in the distribution of demographic, clinical characteristics, and incidence per 100,000 person-year evolution were analysed. Natives and immigrants were compared by logistic regression by calculating the odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) and Chi-square for a linear trend (p<0.05). Of the total 174 cases, 143 (82.1%) were immigrants, 100 (57.5%) were female, 121 (69.5%) Plasmodium falciparum, and 108 (62.1%) were visiting friends and relatives (VFR) as the reason for travel. Among the immigrants, 99 (67.8%) were from Equatorial Guinea. Immigrant cases more frequently travelled to Africa than natives (p=0.02). The factors associated with imported malaria among immigrant residents was travelling for VFR (OR: 6.2 CI 1.9-20.2) and age 15-19 (OR: 3.7 CI 1-13.3). The incidence increased from 1990 to 1999 (p<0.001) and decreased from 2000 to 2008 (p=0.01), although the global linear trend was not statistically significant (p=0.41). The fatality rate was 0.5%. The majority of cases of malaria in population less than 20 years in Barcelona were immigrants, travelling to Africa for VFR and Plasmodium falciparum was most frequently detected. The trend analysis of the entire study period did not show a statistically significant decline. It is recommended to be aware of malaria, especially among children of immigrants who travel to their parent's home country for VFR. Better access to pre travel advice should be provided.

Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: A response to recent warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, David W.

2010-01-01

Trends in the timing of snowmelt and associated runoff in Colorado were evaluated for the 1978-2007 water years using the regional Kendall test (RKT) on daily snow-water equivalent (SWE) data from snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) sites and daily streamflow data from headwater streams. The RKT is a robust, nonparametric test that provides an increased power of trend detection by grouping data from multiple sites within a given geographic region. The RKT analyses indicated strong, pervasive trends in snowmelt and streamflow timing, which have shifted toward earlier in the year by a median of 2-3 weeks over the 29-yr study period. In contrast, relatively few statistically significant trends were detected using simple linear regression. RKT analyses also indicated that November-May air temperatures increased by a median of 0.9 degrees C decade-1, while 1 April SWE and maximum SWE declined by a median of 4.1 and 3.6 cm decade-1, respectively. Multiple linear regression models were created, using monthly air temperatures, snowfall, latitude, and elevation as explanatory variables to identify major controlling factors on snowmelt timing. The models accounted for 45% of the variance in snowmelt onset, and 78% of the variance in the snowmelt center of mass (when half the snowpack had melted). Variations in springtime air temperature and SWE explained most of the interannual variability in snowmelt timing. Regression coefficients for air temperature were negative, indicating that warm temperatures promote early melt. Regression coefficients for SWE, latitude, and elevation were positive, indicating that abundant snowfall tends to delay snowmelt, and snowmelt tends to occur later at northern latitudes and high elevations. Results from this study indicate that even the mountains of Colorado, with their high elevations and cold snowpacks, are experiencing substantial shifts in the timing of snowmelt and snowmelt runoff toward earlier in the year.

Cardiovascular health metrics and accelerometer-measured physical activity levels: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2006.

PubMed

Barreira, Tiago V; Harrington, Deirdre M; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

2014-01-01

To determine whether relationships exist between accelerometer-measured moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and other cardiovascular (CV) health metrics in a large sample. Data from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) collected from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2006, were used. Overall, 3454 nonpregnant adults 20 years or older who fasted for 6 hours or longer, with valid accelerometer data and with CV health metrics, were included in the study. Blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), smoking status, diet, fasting plasma glucose level, and total cholesterol level were defined as ideal, intermediate, and poor on the basis of American Heart Association criteria. Results were weighted to account for sampling design, oversampling, and nonresponse. Significant increasing linear trends in mean daily MVPA were observed across CV health levels for BMI, BP, and fasting plasma glucose (P<.001). Those with a poor BMI and BP had significantly lower mean daily MVPA than those with intermediate and ideal BMIs and BPs (all P<.001). In addition, individuals with an intermediate fasting plasma glucose level had significantly lower mean daily MVPA than individuals at the ideal levels (P<.001). No significant linear trends were observed for cholesterol, smoking, and diet. A significant linear trend was observed for mean daily MVPA and the overall number of other CV health metrics (P<.001). Objectively measured MVPA was related to other CV health metrics in this large sample. These results support the inclusion of physical activity in the overall definition of ideal CV health. Copyright © 2014 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observation of glassy state relaxation during annealing of frozen sugar solutions by X-ray computed tomography.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Kyuya; Tamiya, Shinri; Do, Gabsoo; Kono, Shinji; Ochiai, Takaaki

2018-06-01

Glassy phase formation in a frozen product determines various properties of the freeze-dried products. When an aqueous solution is subjected to freezing, a glassy phase forms as a consequence of freeze-concentration. During post-freezing annealing, the relaxation of the glassy phase and the ripening of ice crystals (i.e. Ostwald ripening) spontaneously occur, where the kinetics are controlled by the annealing and glass transition temperatures. This study was motivated to observe the progress of glassy state relaxation separate from ice coarsening during annealing. X-ray computed tomography (CT) was used to observe a frozen and post-freezing annealed solutions by using monochromatized X-ray from the synchrotron radiation. CT images were successfully obtained, and the frozen matrix were analyzed based on the gray level values that were equivalent to the linear X-ray attenuation coefficients of the observed matters. The CT images obtained from rapidly frozen sucrose and dextrin solutions with different concentrations gave clear linear relationships between the linear X-ray attenuation coefficients values and the solute concentrations. It was confirmed that the glassy state relaxation progressed as increasing annealing time, and this trend was larger in the order of the glass transition temperature of the maximally freeze-concentrated phase. The sucrose-water system required nearly 20 h of annealing time at -5 °C for the completion of the glassy phase relaxation, whereas dextrin-water systems required much longer periods because of their higher glass transition temperatures. The trends of ice coarsening, however, did not perfectly correspond to the trends of the relaxation, suggesting that the glassy phase relaxation and Ostwald ripening would jointly control the ice crystal growth/ripening kinetics, and the dominant mechanism differed by the annealing stage. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of climate related changes in two Arctic fjords, Hornsund and Porsanger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aniskiewicz, Paulina; Stramska, Małgorzata

2017-04-01

In the Arctic zone the climate change is amplified in comparison to globally averaged trends, and the observed trends are variable spatially. Our research is focused on two Artic fjords: Porsanger and Horsund. Porsanger fjord is located in the coastal waters of the Barents Sea. Hornsund is one of fjords located in the western part of Svalbard archipelago. In this presentation we have used data provided by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute for three meteorological stations. Two of them are located in the Porsanger fjord (Lakselv - in the inner part, Honningsvåg - in the outer zone). The third station provides data from the Hornsund fjord. Using these data we have estimated the 33-year trends (1983-2015) of air temperature and relative humidity in each station using linear regression analysis (statistically significant at 95In the inner part of the Porsanger fjord (Lakselv) the multiyear trend of increasing annual mean air temperature has been estimated at 0.006°C per year. The monthly trends were statistically significant in May, September and November. The strongest seasonal warming has been observed in spring and autumn. The trends of increasing annual mean humidity was about 0.2In Hornsund the air temperature trend (0.2°C per year) is significantly larger than in Porsanger. The trends of air temperature were statistically significant for eight months (except March, April, June and July) and three seasons (besides spring). The trends of relative humidity were not statistically significant. Thanks to this research we can discuss how atmospheric conditions and climate related trends change in time and seasons of the year in two different Arctic regions. The project has been financed from the funds of the Leading National Research Centre (KNOW) received by the Centre for Polar Studies for the period 2014-2018. This work was also funded by the Norway Grants (NCBR contract No. 201985, project NORDFLUX). Partial support comes from the Institute of Oceanology (IO PAN).

Compulsory commitment to care of substance misusers: international trends during 25 Years.

PubMed

Israelsson, Magnus; Gerdner, Arne

2012-01-01

The study explores international trends in law on compulsory commitment to care of substance misusers (CCC), and two subtypes - civil CCC and CCC within criminal justice legislation - as well as maximum length and amount of applications of such care. The time period covers more than 25 years, and a total of 104 countries and territories. The study is based on available data in three times of observation (1986, 1999 and 2009). Applications of CCC in number of cases are studied on European level for the years 2002-2006. Trends are analyzed using nonparametric tests and general linear models for repeated measures. Findings are discussed from contextual analysis. There is a trend towards decrease in the number of countries worldwide having civil CCC legislation after the millennium, while CCC under criminal law has increased since the mid-1980s, resulting in some total net decrease. The shift results in longer mean duration of CCC and an increase in the number of cases sentenced. There is a risk that the shift from civil CCC to penal CCC implies more focus on young out-acting males in compulsory treatment and that the societal responsibility for more vulnerable persons might be neglected. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Functional Multi-Locus QTL Mapping of Temporal Trends in Scots Pine Wood Traits

PubMed Central

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R.; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J.; García-Gil, M. Rosario

2014-01-01

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. PMID:25305041

Functional multi-locus QTL mapping of temporal trends in Scots pine wood traits.

PubMed

Li, Zitong; Hallingbäck, Henrik R; Abrahamsson, Sara; Fries, Anders; Gull, Bengt Andersson; Sillanpää, Mikko J; García-Gil, M Rosario

2014-10-09

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping of wood properties in conifer species has focused on single time point measurements or on trait means based on heterogeneous wood samples (e.g., increment cores), thus ignoring systematic within-tree trends. In this study, functional QTL mapping was performed for a set of important wood properties in increment cores from a 17-yr-old Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) full-sib family with the aim of detecting wood trait QTL for general intercepts (means) and for linear slopes by increasing cambial age. Two multi-locus functional QTL analysis approaches were proposed and their performances were compared on trait datasets comprising 2 to 9 time points, 91 to 455 individual tree measurements and genotype datasets of amplified length polymorphisms (AFLP), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. The first method was a multilevel LASSO analysis whereby trend parameter estimation and QTL mapping were conducted consecutively; the second method was our Bayesian linear mixed model whereby trends and underlying genetic effects were estimated simultaneously. We also compared several different hypothesis testing methods under either the LASSO or the Bayesian framework to perform QTL inference. In total, five and four significant QTL were observed for the intercepts and slopes, respectively, across wood traits such as earlywood percentage, wood density, radial fiberwidth, and spiral grain angle. Four of these QTL were represented by candidate gene SNPs, thus providing promising targets for future research in QTL mapping and molecular function. Bayesian and LASSO methods both detected similar sets of QTL given datasets that comprised large numbers of individuals. Copyright © 2014 Li et al.

Mortality reduction associated with HIV/AIDS care and antiretroviral treatment in rural Malawi: evidence from registers, coffin sales and funerals.

PubMed

Mwagomba, Beatrice; Zachariah, Rony; Massaquoi, Moses; Misindi, Dalitso; Manzi, Marcel; Mandere, Bester C; Bemelmans, Marielle; Philips, Mit; Kamoto, Kelita; Schouten, Eric J; Harries, Anthony D

2010-05-04

To report on the trend in all-cause mortality in a rural district of Malawi that has successfully scaled-up HIV/AIDS care including antiretroviral treatment (ART) to its population, through corroborative evidence from a) registered deaths at traditional authorities (TAs), b) coffin sales and c) church funerals. Retrospective study in 5 of 12 TAs (covering approximately 50% of the population) during the period 2000-2007. A total of 210 villages, 24 coffin workshops and 23 churches were included. There were a total of 18,473 registered deaths at TAs, 15781 coffins sold, and 2762 church funerals. Between 2000 and 2007, there was a highly significant linear downward trend in death rates, sale of coffins and church funerals (X(2) for linear trend: 338.4 P<0.0001, 989 P<0.0001 and 197, P<0.0001 respectively). Using data from TAs as the most reliable source of data on deaths, overall death rate reduction was 37% (95% CI:33-40) for the period. The mean annual incremental death rate reduction was 0.52/1000/year. Death rates decreased over time as the percentage of people living with HIV/AIDS enrolled into care and ART increased. Extrapolating these data to the entire district population, an estimated 10,156 (95% CI: 9786-10259) deaths would have been averted during the 8-year period. Registered deaths at traditional authorities, the sale of coffins and church funerals showed a significant downward trend over a 8-year period which we believe was associated with the scaling up HIV/AIDS care and ART.

A review on non-linear aeroelasticity of high aspect-ratio wings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afonso, Frederico; Vale, José; Oliveira, Éder; Lau, Fernando; Suleman, Afzal

2017-02-01

Current economic constraints and environmental regulations call for design of more efficient aircraft configurations. An observed trend in aircraft design to reduce the lift induced drag and improve fuel consumption and emissions is to increase the wing aspect-ratio. However, a slender wing is more flexible and subject to higher deflections under the same operating conditions. This effect may lead to changes in dynamic behaviour and in aeroelastic response, potentially resulting in instabilities. Therefore, it is important to take into account geometric non-linearities in the design of high aspect-ratio wings, as well as having accurate computational codes that couple the aerodynamic and structural models in the presence of non-linearities. Here, a review on the state-of-the-art on non-linear aeroelasticity of high aspect-ratio wings is presented. The methodologies employed to analyse high aspect-ratio wings are presented and their applications discussed. Important observations from the state-of-the-art studies are drawn and the current challenges in the field are identified.

Wavelet Analyses of Oil Prices, USD Variations and Impact on Logistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melek, M.; Tokgozlu, A.; Aslan, Z.

2009-07-01

This paper is related with temporal variations of historical oil prices and Dollar and Euro in Turkey. Daily data based on OECD and Central Bank of Turkey records beginning from 1946 has been considered. 1D-continuous wavelets and wavelet packets analysis techniques have been applied on data. Wavelet techniques help to detect abrupt changing's, increasing and decreasing trends of data. Estimation of variables has been presented by using linear regression estimation techniques. The results of this study have been compared with the small and large scale effects. Transportation costs of track show a similar variation with fuel prices. The second part of the paper is related with estimation of imports, exports, costs, total number of vehicles and annual variations by considering temporal variation of oil prices and Dollar currency in Turkey. Wavelet techniques offer a user friendly methodology to interpret some local effects on increasing trend of imports and exports data.

Linearized-moment analysis of the temperature jump and temperature defect in the Knudsen layer of a rarefied gas.

PubMed

Gu, Xiao-Jun; Emerson, David R

2014-06-01

Understanding the thermal behavior of a rarefied gas remains a fundamental problem. In the present study, we investigate the predictive capabilities of the regularized 13 and 26 moment equations. In this paper, we consider low-speed problems with small gradients, and to simplify the analysis, a linearized set of moment equations is derived to explore a classic temperature problem. Analytical solutions obtained for the linearized 26 moment equations are compared with available kinetic models and can reliably capture all qualitative trends for the temperature-jump coefficient and the associated temperature defect in the thermal Knudsen layer. In contrast, the linearized 13 moment equations lack the necessary physics to capture these effects and consistently underpredict kinetic theory. The deviation from kinetic theory for the 13 moment equations increases significantly for specular reflection of gas molecules, whereas the 26 moment equations compare well with results from kinetic theory. To improve engineering analyses, expressions for the effective thermal conductivity and Prandtl number in the Knudsen layer are derived with the linearized 26 moment equations.

Water-quality characteristics and trends for selected sites at and near the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 1949-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholomay, Roy C.; Davis, Linda C.; Fisher, Jason C.; Tucker, Betty J.; Raben, Flint A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, analyzed water-quality data collected from 67 aquifer wells and 7 surface-water sites at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) from 1949 through 2009. The data analyzed included major cations, anions, nutrients, trace elements, and total organic carbon. The analyses were performed to examine water-quality trends that might inform future management decisions about the number of wells to sample at the INL and the type of constituents to monitor. Water-quality trends were determined using (1) the nonparametric Kendall's tau correlation coefficient, p-value, Theil-Sen slope estimator, and summary statistics for uncensored data; and (2) the Kaplan-Meier method for calculating summary statistics, Kendall's tau correlation coefficient, p-value, and Akritas-Theil-Sen slope estimator for robust linear regression for censored data. Statistical analyses for chloride concentrations indicate that groundwater influenced by Big Lost River seepage has decreasing chloride trends or, in some cases, has variable chloride concentration changes that correlate with above-average and below-average periods of recharge. Analyses of trends for chloride in water samples from four sites located along the Big Lost River indicate a decreasing trend or no trend for chloride, and chloride concentrations generally are much lower at these four sites than those in the aquifer. Above-average and below-average periods of recharge also affect concentration trends for sodium, sulfate, nitrate, and a few trace elements in several wells. Analyses of trends for constituents in water from several of the wells that is mostly regionally derived groundwater generally indicate increasing trends for chloride, sodium, sulfate, and nitrate concentrations. These increases are attributed to agricultural or other anthropogenic influences on the aquifer upgradient of the INL. Statistical trends of chemical constituents from several wells near the Naval Reactors Facility may be influenced by wastewater disposal at the facility or by anthropogenic influence from the Little Lost River basin. Groundwater samples from three wells downgradient of the Power Burst Facility area show increasing trends for chloride, nitrate, sodium, and sulfate concentrations. The increases could be caused by wastewater disposal in the Power Burst Facility area. Some groundwater samples in the southwestern part of the INL and southwest of the INL show concentration trends for chloride and sodium that may be influenced by wastewater disposal. Some of the groundwater samples have decreasing trends that could be attributed to the decreasing concentrations in the wastewater from the late 1970s to 2009. The young fraction of groundwater in many of the wells is more than 20 years old, so samples collected in the early 1990s are more representative of groundwater discharged in the 1960s and 1970s, when concentrations in wastewater were much higher. Groundwater sampled in 2009 would be representative of the lower concentrations of chloride and sodium in wastewater discharged in the late 1980s. Analyses of trends for sodium in several groundwater samples from the central and southern part of the eastern Snake River aquifer show increasing trends. In most cases, however, the sodium concentrations are less than background concentrations measured in the aquifer. Many of the wells are open to larger mixed sections of the aquifer, and the increasing trends may indicate that the long history of wastewater disposal in the central part of the INL is increasing sodium concentrations in the groundwater.

Latitudinal dependence of variations in stratospheric NO2 content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, A. N.

2008-06-01

Diurnal and annual variations in the NO2 total content (TC), the effect of its decrease owing to the products of the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, its variations during an 11-year cycle of solar activity, and its linear trends are analyzed on the basis of data obtained from the ground-based spectrometric measurements of the NO2 TC in stratospheric vertical columns over the stations of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change. Latitudinal dependence of the indicated variations and trends is revealed. The annual estimates of the linear trends of the NO2 TC are found to be mostly positive for the middle and low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere and negative for the middle and low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The maximum values of the positive and negative trends amount to ˜10% per ten years. In the high and polar latitudes of both hemispheres, the annual trend estimates are statistically insignificant. Seasonal estimates of the trends may differ from their annual estimates. The trends and solar-activity effect in the NO2 TC, which were estimated by using the two-dimensional model SOCRATES, as well as the analytical estimates of a zonal mean trend of the NO2 TC, on the whole, significantly differ from the estimates obtained from the measurements.

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

2018-04-01

Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z < -1.96) and an upward trend in annual maximum daily precipitation. Annual and monthly mean flows for most of the months in the Neka basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value < 0.05). Correlation coefficients for Kendall, Spearman's rank and linear regression are 0.43, 0.61, and 0.67, respectively. The spatial presentation of the detected precipitation and streamflow trends showed a downward trend for the mean annual precipitation observed in the upstream part of the study area which is consistent with the streamflow trend. Also, there is a good correlation between monthly and seasonal precipitation and streamflow for all sub-basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

Investigating the Uncertainty in Global SST Trends Due to Internal Variations Using an Improved Trend Estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, Tao; Shen, Zheqi; Ying, Jun; Tang, Youmin; Li, Junde; Ling, Zheng

2018-03-01

A new criterion was proposed recently to measure the influence of internal variations on secular trends in a time series. When the magnitude of the trend is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from internal variations, the sign of the estimated trend can be interpreted as the underlying long-term change. Otherwise, the sign may depend on the period chosen. An improved least squares method is developed here to further reduce the theoretical threshold and is applied to eight sea surface temperature (SST) data sets covering the period 1881-2013 to investigate whether there are robust trends in global SSTs. It is found that the warming trends in the western boundary regions, the South Atlantic, and the tropical and southern-most Indian Ocean are robust. However, robust trends are not found in the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, or the South Indian Ocean. The globally averaged SST and Indian Ocean Dipole indices are found to have robustly increased, whereas trends in the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific, Niño 3.4 SST, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices are within the uncertainty range associated with internal variations. These results indicate that great care is required when interpreting SST trends using the available records in certain regions and indices. It is worth noting that the theoretical threshold can be strongly influenced by low-frequency oscillations, and the above conclusions are based on the assumption that trends are linear. Caution should be exercised when applying the theoretical threshold criterion to real data.

Use of selected ambulatory dental services in Taiwan before and after global budgeting: a longitudinal study to identify trends in hospital and clinic-based services

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The Taiwan government adopted National Health Insurance (NHI) in 1995, providing universal health care to all citizens. It was financed by mandatory premium contributions made by employers, employees, and the government. Since then, the government has faced increasing challenges to control NHI expenditures. The aim of this study was to determine trends in the provision of dental services in Taiwan after the implementation of global budgeting in 1998 and to identify areas of possible concern. Methods This longitudinal before/after study was based on data from the National Health Insurance Research Database from 1996 to 2001. These data were subjected to logistic regression analysis. Linear regression analysis was used to examine changes in delivery of specific services after global budgeting implementation. Utilization of hospital and clinic services was compared. Results Reimbursement for dental services increased significantly while the number of visits per patient remained steady in both hospitals and clinics. In hospitals, visits for root canal procedures, ionomer restoration, tooth extraction and tooth scaling increased significantly. In dental clinics, visits for amalgam restoration decreased significantly while those for ionomer restoration, tooth extraction, and tooth scaling increased significantly. After the adoption of global budgeting, expenditures for dental services increased dramatically while the number of visits per patient did not, indicating a possible shift in patients to hospital facilities that received additional National Health Insurance funding. Conclusions The identified trends indicate increased utilization of dental services and uneven distribution of care and dentists. These trends may be compromising the quality of dental care delivered in Taiwan. PMID:23009095

Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma

2017-11-01

In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

Radialenes are minimally conjugated cyclic π-systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, Jerry Ray

2017-03-01

Conjugation energy (CE) in benzene is larger than its aromatic stabilisation energy (ASE). A far-reaching conclusion offered by this work is that per π-electron, CE is energetically larger than aromaticity. If a diene has a doubly degenerate HOMO, then its Diels-Alder reaction will be kinetically faster than a similar diene with a nondegenerate HOMO. The topological conjugation energy (TCE) for the radialene, monocyclic, dendralene, and linear polyene series has quite different trends. Radialenes are minimally conjugated cyclic systems with the TCE/No. π-bond = 0.432 β; the members of the dendralene series approach this same value from smaller values with increasing size. With increasing size, the members of the monocyclic and linear polyene series have, respectively, decreasing and increasing TCE/No. π-bond values approaching 0.547 β. Topological resonance energy (TRE) for radialenes, dendralenes, and linear polyenes all have TRE = 0, and the TRE/π-electron for monocyclic polyenes has alternating declining values between antiaromatic (-0.3066 β, -0.07435 β, -0.03287 β, …) and aromatic (0.04543 β, 0.01594 β, 0.00807 β, …). For benzene, TRE/No. π-bond = 0.0909 β and TCE/No. π-bond = 0.576 β.

Ring rotational speed trend analysis by FEM approach in a Ring Rolling process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allegri, G.; Giorleo, L.; Ceretti, E.

2018-05-01

Ring Rolling is an advanced local incremental forming technology to fabricate directly precise seamless ring-shape parts with various dimensions and materials. In this process two different deformations occur in order to reduce the width and the height of a preform hollow ring; as results a diameter expansion is obtained. In order to guarantee a uniform deformation, the preform is forced toward the Driver Roll whose aim is to transmit the rotation to the ring. The ring rotational speed selection is fundamental because the higher is the speed the higher will be the axial symmetry of the deformation process. However, it is important to underline that the rotational speed will affect not only the final ring geometry but also the loads and energy needed to produce it. Despite this importance in industrial environment, usually, a constant value for the Driver Roll angular velocity is set so to result in a decreasing trend law for the ring rotational speed. The main risk due to this approach is not fulfilling the axial symmetric constrain (due to the diameter expansion) and to generate a high localized ring section deformation. In order to improve the knowledge about this topic in the present paper three different ring rotational speed trends (constant, linearly increasing and linearly decreasing) were investigated by FEM approach. Results were compared in terms of geometrical and dimensional analysis, loads and energies required.

An assessment of precipitation and surface air temperature over China by regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xueyuan; Tang, Jianping; Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu

2016-12-01

An analysis of a 20-year summer time simulation of present-day climate (1989-2008) over China using four regional climate models coupled with different land surface models is carried out. The climatic means, interannual variability, linear trends, and extremes are examined, with focus on precipitation and near surface air temperature. The models are able to reproduce the basic features of the observed summer mean precipitation and temperature over China and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. Overall, the model performance is better for temperature than that of precipitation. The models reasonably grasp the major anomalies and standard deviations over China and the five subregions studied. The models generally reproduce the spatial pattern of high interannual variability over wet regions, and low variability over the dry regions. The models also capture well the variable temperature gradient increase to the north by latitude. Both the observed and simulated linear trend of precipitation shows a drying tendency over the Yangtze River Basin and wetting over South China. The models capture well the relatively small temperature trends in large areas of China. The models reasonably simulate the characteristics of extreme precipitation indices of heavy rain days and heavy precipitation fraction. Most of the models also performed well in capturing both the sign and magnitude of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China.

Assessing non-linear variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and their impacts on phenology in the Midwest of Jilin Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Enliang; Zhang, Jiquan; Wang, Yongfang; Alu, Si; Wang, Rui; Li, Danjun; Ha, Si

2018-05-01

In the past two decades, the regional climate in China has undergone significant change, resulting in crop yield reduction and complete failure. The goal of this study is to detect the variation of temperature and precipitation for different growth periods of maize and assess their impact on phenology. The daily meteorological data in the Midwest of Jilin Province during 1960-2014 were used in the study. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method was adopted to analyze the non-linear trend and fluctuation in temperature and precipitation, and the sensitivity of the length of the maize growth period to temperature and precipitation was analyzed by the wavelet cross-transformation method. The results show that the trends of temperature and precipitation change are non-linear for different growth periods of maize, and the average temperature in the sowing-jointing stage was different from that in the other growth stages, showing a slight decrease trend, while the variation amplitude of maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature. This indicates that the temperature difference between day and night shows a gradually decreasing trend. Precipitation in the growth period also showed a decreasing non-linear trend, while the inter-annual variability with period of quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year dominated the variation of temperature and precipitation. The whole growth period was shortened by 10.7 days, and the sowing date was advanced by approximately 11 days. We also found that there was a significant resonance period among temperature, precipitation, and phenology. Overall, a negative correlation between phenology and temperature is evident, while a positive correlation with precipitation is exhibited. The results illustrate that the climate suitability for maize has reduced over the past decades.

Spatial and temporal trends of reference crop evapotranspiration and its influential variables in Yangtze River Delta, eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yu; Xu, Youpeng; Wang, Yuefeng; Wu, Lei; Li, Guang; Song, Song

2017-11-01

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important links in hydrologic circulation and greatly affects regional agricultural production and water resource management. Its variation has drawn more and more attention in the context of global warming. We used the Penman-Monteith method of the Food and Agriculture Organization, based on meteorological factors such as air temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity to calculate the ETo over 46 meteorological stations located in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China, from 1957 to 2014. The spatial distributions and temporal trends in ETo were analyzed based on the modified Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method, while ArcGIS software was employed to produce the distribution maps. The multiple stepwise regression method was applied in the analysis of the meteorological variable time series to identify the causes of any observed trends in ETo. The results indicated that annual ETo showed an obvious spatial pattern of higher values in the north than in the south. Annual increasing trends were found at 34 meteorological stations (73.91 % of the total), which were mainly located in the southeast. Among them, 12 (26.09 % of the total) stations showed significant trends. We saw a dominance of increasing trends in the monthly ETo except for January, February, and August. The high value zone of monthly ETo appeared in the northwest from February to June, mid-south area from July to August, and southeast coastal area from September to January. The research period was divided into two stages—stage I (1957-1989) and stage II (1990-2014)—to investigate the long-term temporal ETo variation. In stage I, almost 85 % of the total stations experienced decreasing trends, while more than half of the meteorological stations showed significant increasing trends in annual ETo during stage II except in February and September. Relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration were identified as the most dominant meteorological variables influencing annual ETo changes. The results are expected to assist water resource managers and policy makers in making better planning decisions in the research region.

Trend analysis of aerosol optical thickness and Ångström exponent derived from the global AERONET spectral observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, J.; von Hoyningen-Huene, W.; Kokhanovsky, A. A.; Vountas, M.; Burrows, J. P.

2012-06-01

Regular aerosol observations based on well-calibrated instruments have led to a better understanding of the aerosol radiative budget on Earth. In recent years, these instruments have played an important role in the determination of the increase of anthropogenic aerosols by means of long-term studies. Only few investigations regarding long-term trends of aerosol optical characteristics (e.g. aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Ångström exponent (ÅE)) have been derived from ground-based observations. This paper aims to derive and discuss linear trends of AOT (440, 675, 870, and 1020 nm) and ÅE (440-870 nm) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 spectral observations. Additionally, temporal trends of coarse- and fine-mode dominant AOTs (CdAOT and FdAOT) have been estimated by applying an aerosol classification based on accurate ÅE and Ångström exponent difference (ÅED). In order to take into account the fact that cloud disturbance is having a significant influence on the trend analysis of aerosols, we introduce a weighted least squares regression depending on two weights: (1) monthly standard deviation (σt) and (2) number of observations per month (nt). Temporal increase of FdAOTs (440 nm) prevails over newly industrializing countries in East Asia (weighted trends; +6.23% yr-1 at Beijing) and active agricultural burning regions in South Africa (+1.89% yr-1 at Mongu). On the other hand, insignificant or negative trends for FdAOTs are detected over Western Europe (+0.25% yr-1 at Avignon and -2.29% yr-1 at Ispra) and North America (-0.52% yr-1 for GSFC and -0.01% yr-1 at MD_Science_Center). Over desert regions, both increase and decrease of CdAOTs (+3.37% yr-1 at Solar_Village and -1.18% yr-1 at Ouagadougou) are observed depending on meteorological conditions.

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

2015-12-01

This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

Statistical Analysis of Terrestrial Water Storage Change Over Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eibedingil, I. G.; Mubako, S. T.; Hargrove, W. L.; Espino, A. C.

2017-12-01

A warming trend over recent decades has aggravated water resource challenges in the arid southwestern region of the United States (U.S.). An increase in temperature, coupled with decreasing snowpack and rainfall have impacted the region's cities, ecosystems, and agriculture. The region is the largest contributor of agricultural products to the U.S. market resulting from irrigation. Water use through irrigation is stressing already limited terrestrial water resources. Population growth in recent decades has also led to increased water demand. This study utilizes products of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites experiment in MATLAB and ArcGIS to examine terrestrial water storage changes in the southwestern region of the U.S., comprised of the eight states of Texas, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. Linear trend analysis was applied to the equivalent water-height data of terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC), precipitation, and air temperature. Correlation analysis was performed on couplings of TWSC - precipitation and TWSC - air temperature to examine the impact of temperature and precipitation on the region's water resources. Our preliminary results show a decreasing trend of TWSC from April 2002 to July 2016 in almost all parts of the region. Precipitation shows a decreasing trend from March 2000 to March 2017 for most of the region, except for sparse areas of increased precipitation near the northwestern coast of California, and a belt running from Oklahoma through the middle of Texas to the El Paso/New Mexico border. From April 2002 to December 2014, air temperature exhibited a negative trend for most of the region, except a larger part of California and a small location in central Texas. Correlation between TWSC and precipitation was mostly positive, but a negative trend was observed when TWSC and air temperature were correlated. The study contributes to the understanding of terrestrial water storage trends and their relationship with climatic variables, crucial for implementing appropriate adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies, and managing water demand.

Status of the interior population of least tern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirsch, E.M.; Sidle, John G.

1999-01-01

Because the interior population of least tem (Sterna antillarum) was listed as endangered in 1985, information on population status, trends, and productivity is needed to guide management of this population. We compared recent estimates (1986-95) of tern numbers to objectives identified in the Recovery Plan, used linear regression to estimate trends for local areas (e.g., river segment, reservoir), anti route regression to estimate trends for larger segments of the breeding range. We also compared observed estimates of fledging success to the minimum valve (0.51 fledglings/pair) thought necessary for population maintenance to determine whether observed productivity could support recent population trends. Although the interior population exceeded the recovery goal of 7,000 birds in 1995, this was due to large increases in tern numbers along a 901-km stretch of the Lower Mississippi River, and numbers for most breeding areas have not reached recovery levels. Trend (lambda) was significant for 7 (5 positive, 2 negative) of 31 local areas for which trend could be calculated. At larger scales, lambda was not discernibly different from 1 for the Platte and Missouri river drainages, but lambda was >1 for the Lower Mississippi River drainage. Overall trend for the interior population was 1.090 (95% CI = 1.056-1.111), and 1.024 (95% CI = 0.998-1.045) when data from the Lower Mississippi River were excluded. Fledging; success ranged from 0.00 to 2.33 fledglings/pair, and was <0.51 in 9 areas. Based on available fledging success estimates, there is no evidence that productivity within the interior range caused recent increases in tern numbers. Improved rangewide monitoring of numbers and productivity, and information on movements and postfledging survival, are needed to assess recovery criteria and management options for this population of least terns.

Time series decomposition of remotely sensed land surface temperature and investigation of trends and seasonal variations in surface urban heat islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quan, Jinling; Zhan, Wenfeng; Chen, Yunhao; Wang, Mengjie; Wang, Jinfei

2016-03-01

Previous time series methods have difficulties in simultaneous characterization of seasonal, gradual, and abrupt changes of remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST). This study proposed a model to decompose LST time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components. The trend component indicates long-term climate change and land development and is described as a piecewise linear function with iterative breakpoint detection. The seasonal component illustrates annual insolation variations and is modeled as a sinusoidal function on the detrended data. This model is able to separate the seasonal variation in LST from the long-term (including gradual and abrupt) change. Model application to nighttime Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/LST time series during 2000-2012 over Beijing yielded an overall root-mean-square error of 1.62 K between the combination of the decomposed trend and seasonal components and the actual MODIS/LSTs. LST decreased (~ -0.086 K/yr, p < 0.1) in 53% of the study area, whereas it increased with breakpoints in 2009 (~0.084 K/yr before and ~0.245 K/yr after 2009) between the fifth and sixth ring roads. The decreasing trend was stronger over croplands than over urban lands (p < 0.05), resulting in an increasing trend in surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII, 0.022 ± 0.006 K/yr). This was mainly attributed to the trends in urban-rural differences in rainfall and albedo. The SUHII demonstrated a concave seasonal variation primarily due to the seasonal variations of urban-rural differences in temperature cooling rate (related to canyon structure, vegetation, and soil moisture) and surface heat dissipation (affected by humidity and wind).

Population-level impact of white-nose syndrome on the endangered Indiana bat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; King, R. Andrew; McKann, Patrick C.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; Pruitt, Lori

2012-01-01

Establishing status and trend for an endangered species is critical to recovery, especially when it is faced with a nascent extinction agent. We calculated, with hierarchical log-linear change-point models, hibernaculum-level population trends between 1983 and 2009 for the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) now subjected to the fast-spreading fungal disease white-nose syndrome. We combined trends from 222 wintering populations before and after onset of the disease to determine trend for clusters of interacting wintering populations, recovery units, and the species. Before onset of the disease, a west-to-east gradient in trends existed, with westernmost populations declining and easternmost populations increasing in abundance. The species as a whole, however, was stationary between 1983 and 2005 (-0.5% mean annual change; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.8, +1.8%). Estimated mean population size in 2009 was 377,124 bats (195,398-957,348), with large variance apparently caused by white-nose syndrome. With the onset of white-nose syndrome (2006-2009), the species exhibited a 10.3% annual decline (95% CI = -21.1, +2.0%). White-nose syndrome is having an appreciable influence on the status and trends of Indiana bat populations, stalling and in some cases reversing population gains made in recent years.

Trends in asthma mortality in the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups in Brazil.

PubMed

Graudenz, Gustavo Silveira; Carneiro, Dominique Piacenti; Vieira, Rodolfo de Paula

2017-01-01

To provide an update on trends in asthma mortality in Brazil for two age groups: 0-4 years and 5-34 years. Data on mortality from asthma, as defined in the International Classification of Diseases, were obtained for the 1980-2014 period from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. To analyze time trends in standardized asthma mortality rates, we conducted an ecological time-series study, using regression models for the 0- to 4-year and 5- to 34-year age groups. There was a linear trend toward a decrease in asthma mortality in both age groups, whereas there was a third-order polynomial fit in the general population. Although asthma mortality showed a consistent, linear decrease in individuals ≤ 34 years of age, the rate of decline was greater in the 0- to 4-year age group. The 5- to 34-year group also showed a linear decline in mortality, and the rate of that decline increased after the year 2004, when treatment with inhaled corticosteroids became more widely available. The linear decrease in asthma mortality found in both age groups contrasts with the nonlinear trend observed in the general population of Brazil. The introduction of inhaled corticosteroid use through public policies to control asthma coincided with a significant decrease in asthma mortality rates in both subsets of individuals over 5 years of age. The causes of this decline in asthma-related mortality in younger age groups continue to constitute a matter of debate. Apresentar uma atualização das tendências da mortalidade da asma no Brasil em duas faixas etárias: 0-4 anos e 5-34 anos. Dados relativos ao período de 1980 a 2014 referentes à mortalidade da asma, conforme se definiu na Classificação Internacional de Doenças, foram extraídos Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade do Departamento de Tecnologia da Informação do Sistema Único de Saúde. Para analisar as tendências temporais das taxas padronizadas de mortalidade da asma, realizou-se um estudo ecológico de séries temporais com modelos de regressão para as faixas etárias de 0 a 4 anos e 5 a 34 anos. Houve uma tendência linear de redução da mortalidade da asma em ambas as faixas etárias e uma tendência polinomial de terceira ordem na população geral. Embora a mortalidade da asma tenha apresentado redução linear consistente em indivíduos com idade ≤ 34 anos, a taxa de declínio foi maior na faixa etária de 0 a 4 anos. A faixa etária de 5 a 34 anos também apresentou redução linear da mortalidade, e essa redução tornou-se mais pronunciada após o ano de 2004, quando o tratamento com corticosteroides inalatórios tornou-se mais amplamente disponível. A redução linear da mortalidade da asma em ambas as faixas etárias contrasta com a tendência não linear observada na população geral do Brasil. A introdução do uso de corticosteroides inalatórios por meio de políticas públicas de controle da asma coincidiu com uma diminuição significativa das taxas de mortalidade da asma em ambos os subgrupos de indivíduos com mais de 5 anos de idade. As causas dessa redução da mortalidade da asma em faixas etárias mais jovens ainda são objeto de debate.

Evidence for slowdown in stratospheric ozone loss: First stage of ozone recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newchurch, M. J.; Yang, Eun-Su; Cunnold, D. M.; Reinsel, C.; Zawodny, J. M.; Russell, James M., III

2003-01-01

Global ozone trends derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment I and II (SAGE I/II) combined with the more recent Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) observations provide evidence of a slowdown in stratospheric ozone losses since 1997. This evidence is quantified by the cumulative sum of residual differences from the predicted linear trend. The cumulative residuals indicate that the rate of ozone loss at 35- 45 km altitudes globally has diminished. These changes in loss rates are consistent with the slowdown of total stratospheric chlorine increases characterized by HALOE HCI measurements. These changes in the ozone loss rates in the upper stratosphere are significant and constitute the first stage of a recovery of the ozone layer.

A thermo-elastoplastic model for soft rocks considering structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zuoyue; Zhang, Sheng; Teng, Jidong; Xiong, Yonglin

2017-11-01

In the fields of nuclear waste geological deposit, geothermy and deep mining, the effects of temperature on the mechanical behaviors of soft rocks cannot be neglected. Experimental data in the literature also showed that the structure of soft rocks cannot be ignored. Based on the superloading yield surface and the concept of temperature-deduced equivalent stress, a thermo-elastoplastic model for soft rocks is proposed considering the structure. Compared to the superloading yield surface, only one parameter is added, i.e. the linear thermal expansion coefficient. The predicted results and the comparisons with experimental data in the literature show that the proposed model is capable of simultaneously describing heat increase and heat decrease of soft rocks. A stronger initial structure leads to a greater strength of the soft rocks. Heat increase and heat decrease can be converted between each other due to the change of the initial structure of soft rocks. Furthermore, regardless of the heat increase or heat decrease, a larger linear thermal expansion coefficient or a greater temperature always leads to a much rapider degradation of the structure. The degradation trend will be more obvious for the coupled greater values of linear thermal expansion coefficient and temperature. Lastly, compared to heat decrease, the structure will degrade more easily in the case of heat increase.

Dose-response effects of aerobic exercise on estrogen among women at high risk for breast cancer: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Schmitz, Kathryn H; Williams, Nancy I; Kontos, Despina; Domchek, Susan; Morales, Knashawn H; Hwang, Wei-Ting; Grant, Lorita L; DiGiovanni, Laura; Salvatore, Domenick; Fenderson, Desire'; Schnall, Mitchell; Galantino, Mary Lou; Stopfer, Jill; Kurzer, Mindy S; Wu, Shandong; Adelman, Jessica; Brown, Justin C; Good, Jerene

2015-11-01

Medical and surgical interventions for elevated breast cancer risk (e.g., BRCA1/2 mutation, family history) focus on reducing estrogen exposure. Women at elevated risk may be interested in less aggressive approaches to risk reduction. For example, exercise might reduce estrogen, yet has fewer serious side effects and less negative impact than surgery or hormonal medications. Randomized controlled trial. Increased risk defined by risk prediction models or BRCA mutation status. Eligibility: Age 18-50, eumenorrheic, non-smokers, and body mass index (BMI) between 21 and 50 kg/m(2). 139 were randomized. Treadmill exercise: 150 or 300 min/week, five menstrual cycles. Control group maintained exercise <75 min/week. Area under curve (AUC) for urinary estrogen. Secondary measures: urinary progesterone, quantitative digitized breast dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging background parenchymal enhancement. Mean age 34 years, mean BMI 26.8 kg/m(2). A linear dose-response relationship was observed such that every 100 min of exercise is associated with 3.6 % lower follicular phase estrogen AUC (linear trend test, p = 0.03). No changes in luteal phase estrogen or progesterone levels. There was also a dose-response effect noted: for every 100 min of exercise, there was a 9.7 % decrease in background parenchymal enhancement as measured by imaging (linear trend test, p = 0.009). Linear dose-response effect observed to reduce follicular phase estrogen exposure measured via urine and hormone sensitive breast tissue as measured by imaging. Future research should explore maintenance of effects and extent to which findings are repeatable in lower risk women. Given the high benefit to risk ratio, clinicians can inform young women at increased risk that exercise may blunt estrogen exposure while considering whether to try other preventive therapies.

Ambient temperature and FIT performance in the Emilia-Romagna colorectal cancer screening programme.

PubMed

De Girolamo, Gianfranco; Goldoni, Carlo A; Corradini, Rossella; Giuliani, Orietta; Falcini, Fabio; Sassoli De'Bianchi, Priscilla; Naldoni, Carlo; Zauli Sajani, Stefano

2016-12-01

To assess the impact of ambient temperature on faecal immunochemical test (FIT) performance in the colorectal cancer screening programme of Emilia-Romagna (Italy). A population-based retrospective cohort study on data from 2005 to 2011. Positive rate, detection rate, and positive predictive value rate for cancers and adenomas, and incidence rate of interval cancers after negative tests were analysed using Poisson regression models. In addition to ambient temperature, gender, age, screening history, and Local Health Unit were also considered. In 1,521,819 tests analysed, the probability of a positive result decreased linearly with increasing temperature. Point estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals were estimated for six temperature classes (<5, 5 |-10, 10 |-15, 15 |-20, 20|-25 and ≥25℃), and referred to the 5|-10℃ class. The positive rate ratio was significantly related to temperature increase: 0.99 (0.97-1.02), 1, 0.98 (0.96-1.00), 0.96 (0.94-0.99), 0.93 (0.91-0.96), 0.92 (0.89-0.95). A linear trend was also evident for advanced adenoma detection rate ratio: 1.00 (0.96-1.04), 1, 0.98 (0.93-1.02), 0.96 (0.92-1.00), 0.92 (0.88-0.96), 0.94 (0.88-1.01). The effect was less linear, but still important, for cancer detection rates: 0.95 (0.85-1.06), 1, 1.00 (0.90-1.10), 0.94 (0.85-1.05), 0.81 (0.72-0.92), 0.93 (0.80-1.09). No association or linear trend was found for positive predictive values or risk of interval cancer, despite an excess of +16% in the highest temperature class for interval cancer. Ambient temperatures can affect screening performance. Continued monitoring is needed to verify the effect of introducing FIT tubes with a new buffer, which should guarantee a higher stability of haemoglobin. © The Author(s) 2016.

Power and temperature dependent photoluminescence investigation of the linear polarization at normal and inverted interface transitions in InP/InAlAs and InGaAsP/InAlAs QW structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaielpour, Hamidreza; Whiteside, Vincent R.; Hirst, Louise C.; Forbes, David V.; Walters, Robert J.; Sellers, Ian R.

We present an investigation of the interface effects for InGaAsP/InAlAs QW and InP/InAlAs QW structures capped with an InP layer. Continuous wave photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy of these samples at 4 K shows features associated with the interfaces of an InAlAs layer grown on an InP layer (normal interface) and an InP layer grown on an InAlAs material (inverted interface). Power dependent PL of the InGaAsP QW indicates that there are two features related to the inverted interface, whereby the linear polarization of one increases and for the other decreases. In addition, a temperature dependent study of this sample shows that as the temperature increases: the linear polarization for both features decreases; at room temperature, there is negligible polarization effect. A power dependent PL study of the InP QW structure shows both normal and inverted interface transitions have opposing trends in linear polarization. Notably, the temperature dependent PL investigation displays a reduction of polarization degree for the inverted interface: as expected; while an increase of polarization for the normal interface was observed. In addition, power and temperature dependence of peak energy of the interface transitions for both samples will be presented.

Aspect ratio effects on limited scrape-off layer plasma turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolliet, Sébastien; Halpern, Federico D.; Loizu, Joaquim; Mosetto, Annamaria; Ricci, Paolo

2014-02-01

The drift-reduced Braginskii model describing turbulence in the tokamak scrape-off layer is written for a general magnetic configuration with a limiter. The equilibrium is then specified for a circular concentric magnetic geometry retaining aspect ratio effects. Simulations are then carried out with the help of the global, flux-driven fluid three-dimensional code GBS [Ricci et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 54, 124047 (2012)]. Linearly, both simulations and simplified analytical models reveal a stabilization of ballooning modes. Nonlinearly, flux-driven nonlinear simulations give a pressure characteristic length whose trends are correctly captured by the gradient removal theory [Ricci and Rogers, Phys. Plasmas 20, 010702 (2013)], that assumes the profile flattening from the linear modes as the saturation mechanism. More specifically, the linear stabilization of ballooning modes is reflected by a 15% increase in the steady-state pressure gradient obtained from GBS nonlinear simulations when going from an infinite to a realistic aspect ratio.

Unchanged Pediatric Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Incidence and Survival Rates with Regional Variation in North America

PubMed Central

Fink, Ericka L.; Prince, David K.; Kaltman, Jonathan R.; Atkins, Dianne L.; Austin, Michael; Warden, Craig; Hutchison, Jamie; Daya, Mohamud; Goldberg, Scott; Herren, Heather; Tijssen, Janice A.; Christenson, James; Vaillancourt, Christian; Miller, Ronna; Schmicker, Robert H.; Callaway, Clifton W.

2016-01-01

Aim Outcomes for pediatric out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) are poor. Our objective was to determine temporal trends in incidence and mortality for pediatric OHCA. Methods Adjusted incidence and hospital mortality rates of pediatric non-traumatic OHCA patients from 2007-2012 were analyzed using the 9 region Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium - Epidemiological Registry (ROC-Epistry) database. Children were divided into 4 age groups: perinatal (< 3 days), infants (3 days - 1 year), children (1 - 11 years), and adolescents (12 - 19 years). ROC regions were analyzed post-hoc. Results We studied 1,738 children with OHCA. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate of OHCA was 8.3 per 100,000 person-years (75.3 for infants vs. 3.7 for children and 6.3 for adolescents, per 100,000 person-years, p<0.001). Incidence rates differed by year (p<0.001) without overall linear trend. Annual survival rates ranged from 6.7-10.2%. Survival was highest in the perinatal (25%) and adolescent (17.3%) groups. Stratified by age group, survival rates over time were unchanged (all p>0.05) but there was a non-significant linear trend (1.3% increase) in infants. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, infants, unwitnessed event, initial rhythm of asystole, and region were associated with worse survival, all p<0.001. Survival by region ranged from 2.6-14.7%. Regions with the highest survival had more cases of EMS-witnessed OHCA, bystander CPR, and increased EMS-defibrillation (all p<0.05). Conclusions Overall incidence and survival of children with OHCA in ROC regions did not significantly change over a recent 5 year period. Regional variation represents an opportunity for further study to improve outcomes. PMID:27565862

Establishing Normative Reference Values for Standing Broad Jump Among Hungarian Youth.

PubMed

Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Laurson, Kelly R; Kaj, Mónika; Csányi, Tamás

2015-06-26

The purpose of this study was to examine age and sex trends in anaerobic power assessed by a standing broad jump and to determine norm-referenced values for youth in Hungary. A sample of 2,427 Hungarian youth (1,360 boys and 1,067 girls) completed the standing broad jump twice, and the highest distance score was recorded. Quantile regression was used to fit standing broad jump trends across linear and quadratic functions of age. Statistical significance was determined with bootstrap confidence intervals and the Wald test with p < .05. Age-by-sex specific centiles were generated and the 50th percentile was used to describe the overall patterns. Standing broad jump scores increased steadily in boys from age 11 through 18 years with a discrete plateau at the end of adolescence. Girls' standing broad jump scores of those who performed above the median increased with age and plateaued later in the adolescence. Both linear and quadratic age terms were statistically significant predictors of standing broad jump trends across age (p < .05), but the relations varied depending on the percentile. The 50th percentile values resulted in 147.0 cm, 162.0 cm, 175.0 cm, 186.0 cm, 195.0 cm, 202.0 cm, 207.0 cm, and 210.0 cm for boys aged 11 to 18 years old, respectively, and 140.0 cm, 143.9 cm, 147.3 cm, 150.0 cm, 152.1 cm, 153.7 cm, 154.6 cm, and 155.0 cm for girls aged 11 to 18 years old, respectively. This study provides normative reference charts that take into account age and sex differences in standing broad jump performance. The proposed reference values can be used to interpret standing broad jump scores in Hungarian youth.

Impact of tobacco prices and smoke-free policy on smoking cessation, by gender and educational group: Spain, 1993-2012.

PubMed

Regidor, Enrique; Pascual, Cruz; Giráldez-García, Carolina; Galindo, Silvia; Martínez, David; Kunst, Anton E

2015-12-01

To evaluate the effect of tobacco prices and the implementation of smoke-free legislation on smoking cessation in Spain, by educational level, across the period 1993-2012. National Health Surveys data for the above two decades were used to calculate smoking cessation in people aged 25-64 years. The relationship between tobacco prices and smoking quit-ratio was estimated using multiple linear regression adjusted for time and the presence of smoke-free legislation. The immediate as well as the longer-term impact of the 2006 smoke-free law on quit-ratio was estimated using segmented linear regression analysis. The analyses were performed separately in men and women with high and low education, respectively. No relationship was observed between tobacco prices and smoking quit-ratio, except in women having a low educational level, among whom a rise in price was associated with a decrease in quit-ratio. The smoke-free law altered the smoking quit-ratio in the short term and altered also pre-existing trends. Smoking quit-ratio increased immediately after the ban - though this increase was significant only among women with a low educational level - and then decreased in subsequent years except among men with a high educational level. A clear relationship between tobacco prices and smoking quit-ratio was not observed in a recent period. After the implementation of smoke-free legislation the trend in the quit ratio in most of the socio-economic groups was different from the trend observed before implementation, so existing inequalities in smoking quit-ratio were not widened or narrowed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association of Breast Feeding and Birth Weight with Anthropometric Measures and Blood Pressure in Children and Adolescents: The CASPIAN-IV Study.

PubMed

Djalalinia, Shirin; Qorbani, Mostafa; Heshmat, Ramin; Motlagh, Mohammad Esmaeil; Ardalan, Gelayol; Bazyar, Nima; Taheri, Majzoubeh; Asayesh, Hamid; Kelishadi, Roya

2015-10-01

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and their risk factors are major health threats especially for developing countries. The aim of this study was to assess the association between breast feeding (BF) and birth weight (BW) with anthropometric measures and blood pressure (BP) in a nationally-representative sample of Iranian children and adolescents. In this national survey, 14,880 children and adolescents, aged 6-18 years, were selected using a multistage, cluster sampling method from rural and urban areas of 30 provinces of Iran. BF duration and BW were assessed by validated questionnaires completed by parents. The study participants were 13,486 students (participation rate of 90.6%). They consisted of 49.24% girls, 75.6% urban residents, with a mean age of 12.5 years (95% confidence interval: 12.3-12.6). The family history of obesity had a significant association with BW (p < 0.001). A substantial association was found between BF duration and the order of children in the family, both in boys (p < 0.001) and girls (p < 0.001). The mean values for height, weight, body mass index, as well as waist, wrist, and hip circumferences were higher in those with higher BW categories (p for trend < 0.001). As BW increased, there was a linear decrease in underweight (p for trend < 0.001) and a linear increase in the prevalence of generalized obesity (p for trend < 0.001) was documented. BW was associated with a higher prevalence in general obesity and a lower prevalence of being underweight. Duration of BF had no significant association with anthropometric measures and BP. Future longitudinal studies are necessary to determine the clinical implications of these findings. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Description of the rates, trends and surgical burden associated with revision for prosthetic joint infection following primary and revision knee replacements in England and Wales: an analysis of the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man.

PubMed

Lenguerrand, Erik; Whitehouse, Michael R; Beswick, Andrew D; Toms, Andrew D; Porter, Martyn L; Blom, Ashley W

2017-07-10

To describe the prevalence rates of revision surgery for the treatment of prosthetic joint infection (PJI) for patients undergoing knee replacement, their time trends, the cumulative incidence function of revision for PJI and estimate the burden of PJI at health service level. We analysed revision knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI and the linked index procedures recorded in the National Joint Registry from 2003 to 2014 for England and Wales. The cohort analysed consisted of 679 010 index primary knee replacements, 33 920 index revision knee replacements and 8247 revision total knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI. The prevalence rates, their time trends investigated by time from index surgery to revision for PJI, cumulative incidence functions and the burden of PJI (total procedures) were calculated. Overall linear trends were investigated with log-linear regression. The incidence of revision total knee replacement due to PJI at 2 years was 3.2/1000 following primary and 14.4/1000 following revision knee replacement, respectively. The prevalence of revision due to PJI in the 3 months following primary knee replacement has risen by 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.2 to 5.3) from 2005 to 2013 and 7.5-fold (95% CI 1.0 to 56.1) following revision knee replacement. Over 1000 procedures per year are performed as a consequence of knee PJI, an increase of 2.8 from 2005 to 2013. Overall, 75% of revisions were two-stage with an increase in use of single-stage from 7.9% in 2005 to 18.8% in 2014. Although the risk of revision due to PJI following knee replacement is low, it is rising, and coupled with the established and further predicted increased incidence of both primary and revision knee replacements, this represents an increasing and substantial treatment burden for orthopaedic service delivery in England and Wales. This has implications for future service design and the funding of individual and specialist centres. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Description of the rates, trends and surgical burden associated with revision for prosthetic joint infection following primary and revision knee replacements in England and Wales: an analysis of the National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man

PubMed Central

Lenguerrand, Erik; Whitehouse, Michael R; Beswick, Andrew D; Toms, Andrew D; Porter, Martyn L; Blom, Ashley W

2017-01-01

Objectives To describe the prevalence rates of revision surgery for the treatment of prosthetic joint infection (PJI) for patients undergoing knee replacement, their time trends, the cumulative incidence function of revision for PJI and estimate the burden of PJI at health service level. Design We analysed revision knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI and the linked index procedures recorded in the National Joint Registry from 2003 to 2014 for England and Wales. The cohort analysed consisted of 679 010 index primary knee replacements, 33 920 index revision knee replacements and 8247 revision total knee replacements performed due to a diagnosis of PJI. The prevalence rates, their time trends investigated by time from index surgery to revision for PJI, cumulative incidence functions and the burden of PJI (total procedures) were calculated. Overall linear trends were investigated with log-linear regression. Results The incidence of revision total knee replacement due to PJI at 2 years was 3.2/1000 following primary and 14.4/1000 following revision knee replacement, respectively. The prevalence of revision due to PJI in the 3 months following primary knee replacement has risen by 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.2 to 5.3) from 2005 to 2013 and 7.5-fold (95% CI 1.0 to 56.1) following revision knee replacement. Over 1000 procedures per year are performed as a consequence of knee PJI, an increase of 2.8 from 2005 to 2013. Overall, 75% of revisions were two-stage with an increase in use of single-stage from 7.9% in 2005 to 18.8% in 2014. Conclusions Although the risk of revision due to PJI following knee replacement is low, it is rising, and coupled with the established and further predicted increased incidence of both primary and revision knee replacements, this represents an increasing and substantial treatment burden for orthopaedic service delivery in England and Wales. This has implications for future service design and the funding of individual and specialist centres. PMID:28698316

Extreme temperature indices analyses: A case study of five meteorological stations in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Salleh, Nur Hanim Mohd

2015-10-01

Extreme temperature events affect many human and natural systems. Changes in extreme temperature events can be detected and monitored by developing the indices based on the extreme temperature data. As an effort to provide the understanding of these changes to the public, a study of extreme temperature indices is conducted at five meteorological stations in Peninsular Malaysia. In this study, changes in the means and extreme events of temperature are assessed and compared using the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for the period of 2004 to 2013. The absolute extreme temperature indices; TXx, TXn, TXn and TNn provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) are utilized and linear trends of each index are extracted using least square likelihood method. The results indicate that there exist significant decreasing trend in the TXx index for Kota Bharu station and increasing trend in TNn index for Chuping and Kota Kinabalu stations. The comparison between the trend in mean and extreme temperatures show the same significant tendency for Kota Bharu and Kuala Terengganu stations.

OMI air-quality monitoring over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkley, Michael P.; González Abad, Gonzalo; Kurosu, Thomas P.; Spurr, Robert; Torbatian, Sara; Lerot, Christophe

2017-04-01

Using Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) trace gas vertical column observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), formaldehyde (HCHO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and glyoxal (CHOCHO), we have conducted a robust and detailed time series analysis to assess changes in local air quality for over 1000 locations (focussing on urban, oil refinery, oil port, and power plant targets) over the Middle East for 2005-2014. Apart from NO2, which is highest over urban locations, average tropospheric column levels of these trace gases are highest over oil ports and refineries. The highest average pollution levels over urban settlements are typically in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. We detect 278 statistically significant and real linear NO2 trends in total. Over urban areas NO2 increased by up to 12 % yr-1, with only two locations showing a decreasing trend. Over oil refineries, oil ports, and power plants, NO2 increased by about 2-9 % yr-1. For HCHO, 70 significant and real trends were detected, with HCHO increasing by 2-7 % yr-1 over urban settlements and power plants and by about 2-4 % yr-1 over refineries and oil ports. Very few SO2 trends were detected, which varied in direction and magnitude (23 increasing and 9 decreasing). Apart from two locations where CHOCHO is decreasing, we find that glyoxal tropospheric column levels are not changing over the Middle East. Hence, for many locations in the Middle East, OMI observes a degradation in air quality over 2005-2014. This study therefore demonstrates the capability of OMI to generate long-term air-quality monitoring at local scales over this region.

Thyroid hormones and coronary artery calcification in euthyroid men and women.

PubMed

Zhang, Yiyi; Kim, Bo-Kyoung; Chang, Yoosoo; Ryu, Seungho; Cho, Juhee; Lee, Won-Young; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Kwon, Min-Jung; Rampal, Sanjay; Zhao, Di; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Lima, Joao A; Shin, Hocheol; Guallar, Eliseo

2014-09-01

Overt and subclinical hypothyroidism are risk factors for atherosclerosis. It is unclear whether thyroid hormone levels within the normal range are also associated with atherosclerosis measured by coronary artery calcium (CAC). We conducted a cross-sectional study of 41 403 apparently healthy young and middle-aged men and women with normal thyroid hormone levels. Free thyroxin, free triiodothyronine, and thyroid-stimulating hormone levels were measured by electrochemiluminescent immunoassay. CAC score was measured by multidetector computed tomography. The multivariable adjusted CAC ratios comparing the highest versus the lowest quartile of thyroid hormones were 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.91; P for trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.81 (0.66-1.00; P for trend=0.05) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.78 (0.64-0.95; P for trend=0.01) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. Similarly, the odds ratios for detectable CAC (CAC >0) comparing the highest versus the lowest quartiles of thyroid hormones were 0.87 (0.79-0.96; P for linear trend <0.001) for free thyroxin, 0.90 (0.82-0.99; P for linear trend=0.02) for free triiodothyronine, and 0.91 (0.83-1.00; P for linear trend=0.03) for thyroid-stimulating hormone. In a large cohort of apparently healthy young and middle-aged euthyroid men and women, low-normal free thyroxin and thyroid-stimulating hormone were associated with a higher prevalence of subclinical coronary artery disease and with a greater degree of coronary calcification. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Behavior-over-time graphs: assessing perceived trends in healthy eating and active living environments and behaviors across 49 communities.

PubMed

Hoehner, Christine M; Sabounchi, Nasim S; Brennan, Laura K; Hovmand, Peter; Kemner, Allison

2015-01-01

In the evaluation of the Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities initiative, investigators implemented Group Model Building (GMB) to promote systems thinking at the community level. As part of the GMB sessions held in each community partnership, participants created behavior-over-time graphs (BOTGs) to characterize their perceptions of changes over time related to policies, environments, collaborations, and social determinants in their community related to healthy eating, active living, and childhood obesity. To describe the process of coding BOTGs and their trends. Descriptive study of trends among BOTGs from 11 domains (eg, active living environments, social determinants of health, funding) and relevant categories and subcategories based on the graphed variables. In addition, BOTGs were distinguished by whether the variables were positively (eg, access to healthy foods) or negatively (eg, screen time) associated with health. The GMB sessions were held in 49 community partnerships across the United States. Participants in the GMB sessions (n = 590; n = 5-21 per session) included key individuals engaged in or impacted by the policy, system, or environmental changes occurring in the community. Thirty codes were developed to describe the direction (increasing, decreasing, stable) and shape (linear, reinforcing, balancing, or oscillating) of trends from 1660 graphs. The patterns of trends varied by domain. For example, among variables positively associated with health, the prevalence of reinforcing increasing trends was highest for active living and healthy eating environments (37.4% and 29.3%, respectively), partnership and community capacity (38.8%), and policies (30.2%). Examination of trends of specific variables suggested both convergence (eg, for cost of healthy foods) and divergence (eg, for farmers' markets) of trends across partnerships. Behavior-over-time graphs provide a unique data source for understanding community-level trends and, when combined with causal maps and computer modeling, can yield insights about prevention strategies to address childhood obesity.

Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

1995-05-01

The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of the model is rather poor, and possible explanations are discussed.

Riparian Bird Population Monitoring in Utah, 1992-2001

Treesearch

Russell E. Norvell; Frank P. Howe; Jimmie R. Parrish

2005-01-01

We report statewide linear and non-linear trends in density from 1992 to 2001 for six common bird species in the riparian areas of Utah. The six species examined here represent over 24 percent of all observations in the period. Four of the six species showed linear declines (Black-headed Grosbeak [Pheucticus melanocephalus], American Goldfinch [

Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.

2018-03-01

Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.

Gender Trends in Radiology Authorship: A 35-Year Analysis.

PubMed

Piper, Crystal L; Scheel, John R; Lee, Christoph I; Forman, Howard P

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to describe trends over time in female authorship in the radiology literature and to investigate the tendency of female first authors to publish with female senior authors. Data on the gender of academic physician authors based in the United States for all major articles published in three general radiology journals--Radiology, AJR, and Academic Radiology--were collected and analyzed for the years 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify significant trends over time, and a chi-square test of independence was performed to determine significant relations between the genders of first and senior authors. The gender of 4182 of 4217 (99.17%) authors with MD degrees was determined. The proportion of original research articles published by women as first authors increased from 8.33% in 1978 to 32.35% in 2013 (p < 0.001). The proportion of original research articles with women as senior authors increased from 6.75% in 1978 to 21.90% in 2013 (p < 0.001). Female first and senior authorship increased significantly over time (first author, p < 0.001; senior author, p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant relation between the genders of first and senior authors of original research articles and guest editorials (p < 0.001). Over 35 years, there was a statistically significant upward linear trend of female physician participation in authorship of academic radiology literature. Female first authors were more likely to publish with female senior authors.

Have Tropical Cyclones Been Feeding More Extreme Rainfall?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Zhou, Y. P.; Wu, H.-T.

2008-01-01

We have conducted a study of the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) and extreme rain events using GPCP and TRMM rainfall data, and storm track data for July through November (JASON) in the North Atlantic (NAT) and the western North Pacific (WNP). Extreme rain events are defined in terms of percentile rainrate, and TC-rain by rainfall associated with a named TC. Results show that climatologically, 8% of rain events and 17% of the total rain amount in NAT are accounted by TCs, compared to 9% of rain events and 21% of rain amount in WNP. The fractional contribution of accumulated TC-rain to total rain, Omega, increases nearly linearly as a function of rainrate. Extending the analyses using GPCP pentad data for 1979-2005, and for the post-SSM/I period (1988-2005), we find that while there is no significant trend in the total JASON rainfall over NAT or WNP, there is a positive significant trend in heavy rain over both basins for the 1979-2005 period, but not for the post-SSM/I period. Trend analyses of Omega for both periods indicate that TCs have been feeding increasingly more to rainfall extremes in NAT, where the expansion of the warm pool area can explain slight more than 50% of the change in observed trend in total TC rainfall. In WNP, trend signals for Omega are mixed, and the long-term relationship between TC rain and warm pool areas are strongly influenced by interannual and interdecadal variability.

Long-term decrease in phosphate concentrations in the surface layer of the southern Japan Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodama, Taketoshi; Igeta, Yosuke; Kuga, Mizuki; Abe, Shoko

2016-10-01

To identify possible causes for the long-term trends in nutrient concentrations in the southern Japan Sea (JS), we studied nutrient concentrations that were obtained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Our evaluation shows that phosphate concentrations declined in the surface layers in summer (0-20 and 21-50 m depth) and winter (0-20, 21-50, and 51-100 m depth) over the last 40 years, while no significant linear trend was observed for nitrate concentrations. The declining trend in the phosphate concentration was quantified as 1.8-3.3 nM yr-1. The increase in atmospheric nutrient deposition to the JS could not explain the decline in phosphate concentration. In addition, the mixed-layer depth during winter did not demonstrate any significant trend, and an increase in phosphate concentrations was not observed in any layers; therefore, the decrease in nutrient supply from deep JS water was not considered a major possible cause for the decline in the phosphate concentration. In contrast, the phosphate concentration in the surface of the southern JS during winter showed a significant positive correlation with the concentration in the 21-50 m depth layer of the saline East China Sea (ECS) water in the preceding summer, and the surface water of the southern JS was almost entirely replaced by water originating from the ECS during May-October. Therefore, it is concluded that the declining trend in the phosphate concentrations in the southern JS is caused by horizontal advection of ECS water.

Trends in adult overweight and obesity prevalence in Mongolia, 2005-2013.

PubMed

Chimeddamba, Oyun; Gearon, Emma; Stevenson, Christopher; Liviya Ng, Winda; Baasai, Bulganchimeg; Peeters, Anna

2016-10-01

To analyze trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Mongolian adults during the past decade as measured by body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC). Data from the repeated cross-sectional surveys on the prevalence of noncommunicable disease risk factors conducted in 2005, 2009, and 2013 in Mongolia were used. Linear regression was used to quantify trends in mean BMI and WC, adjusted for age group, sex, and survey year. The age-standardized prevalence of obesity, denoted by the international BMI cutoff values, in men and women between 2005 and 2013 increased from 10.8% to 17.6% and from 18.9% to 26.4%, respectively. Using Asian-specific BMI cutoff values for men and women, the age-standardized prevalence of obesity between 2005 and 2013 increased from 20.0% to 32.8% and 33.4% to 43.7%, respectively. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased markedly between 2005 and 2013 similarly across all age groups and sexes. It is important to consider the use of Asian-specific cut-offs as the burden of obesity is twice as high as when using international BMI cutoffs. These data demonstrate the urgent need for obesity treatment, prevention, and monitoring in Mongolia. © 2016 The Obesity Society.

Trends in Professional Development for and Collaboration by Health Education Teachers—41 States, 2000–2010

PubMed Central

Brener, Nancy D.; McManus, Tim; Wechsler, Howell; Kann, Laura

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Professional development (PD) and collaboration help ensure the quality of school health education. The purpose of this study was to examine trends in the percentage of lead health education teachers (LHETs) receiving PD on health topics and collaborating with other school staff on health education activities. METHODS This study analyzed representative data from 41 states participating in School Health Profiles surveys between 2000 and 2010. Logistic regression examined linear trends in the percentage of LHETs who received PD on 12 topics and who collaborated on health education activities. RESULTS Significant increases in the percentage of LHETs receiving PD on nutrition and physical activity and significant decreases in the percentage of LHETs receiving PD on alcohol- and other drug-use prevention and human immunodeficiency virus prevention were seen. Significant increases in the percentage of LHETs who collaborated with physical education staff and nutrition services staff were seen in 29 and 39 states, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Although 10-year increases in PD and collaboration in the areas of nutrition and physical activity are encouraging, PD and collaboration in other topic areas still need improvement. These results will help states target more resources toward PD and collaboration in areas where they have been decreasing. PMID:24020688

Black carbon aerosol-induced Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion

DOE PAGES

Kovilakam, Mahesh; Mahajan, Salil

2015-06-23

Global climate models (GCMs) underestimate the observed trend in tropical expansion. Recent studies partly attribute it to black carbon (BC) aerosols, which are poorly represented in GCMs. In this paper, we conduct a suite of idealized experiments with the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 coupled to a slab ocean model forced with increasing BC concentrations covering a large swath of the estimated range of current BC radiative forcing while maintaining their spatial distribution. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) tropics expand poleward nearly linearly as BC radiative forcing increases (0.7° W -1 m 2), indicating that a realistic representation of BC couldmore » reduce GCM biases. We find support for the mechanism where BC-induced midlatitude tropospheric heating shifts the maximum meridional tropospheric temperature gradient poleward resulting in tropical expansion. Finally, we also find that the NH poleward tropical edge is nearly linearly correlated with the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which shifts northward in response to increasing BC.« less

The Relation of Education and Income to Cognitive Function among Professional Women

PubMed Central

Lee, Sunmin; Buring, Julie E.; Cook, Nancy R.; Grodstein, Francine

2005-01-01

We investigated the relation of educational attainment and annual household income to cognitive function and cognitive decline in community-dwelling women aged 66 years or older. Subjects were 6,314 health professionals participating in the Women’s Health Study, among whom information on education and income was self-reported. From 1998 to 2000, we administered five cognitive tests, measuring general cognition, episodic memory and verbal fluency, using a validated telephone interview. Second cognitive assessments were conducted approximately two years later; information was complete for 5,573 women at the time of analysis, with 94% follow-up. We used linear and logistic regression to calculate multivariate-adjusted mean differences, and odds of cognitive impairment (defined as worst 10% of test distribution) and of substantial decline in performance (worst 10% of distribution), across various levels of education and income. After adjusting for numerous potential confounding factors, we found strong trends of increasing mean cognitive performance with increasing level of education (p-trend<0.0005 on all cognitive measures). Odds of cognitive impairment also consistently decreased with increasing education (eg, on summary score combining all tests, OR=0.6, 95% CI 0.3–0.9 comparing those with a doctoral degree to those with a 3-year associate’s degree). For income, we found significant trends of increasing mean cognitive performance with increasing income on the summary score and on episodic memory (p-trends<0.0001). For example, the OR was 0.6 (95% CI 0.4–0.8) comparing those with the highest income to the lowest income on the summary score. Results were generally similar for cognitive decline over two years, although somewhat weaker. Thus, in these well-educated, professional women, educational attainment and income both predicted cognitive function and decline. PMID:16352912

Mind the gap--reaching the European target of a 2-year increase in healthy life years in the next decade.

PubMed

Jagger, Carol; McKee, Martin; Christensen, Kaare; Lagiewka, Karolina; Nusselder, Wilma; Van Oyen, Herman; Cambois, Emmanuelle; Jeune, Bernard; Robine, Jean-Marie

2013-10-01

The European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing seeks an increase of two healthy life years (HLY) at birth in the EU27 for the next 10 years. We assess the feasibility of doing so between 2010 and 2020 and the differential impact among countries by applying different scenarios to current trends in HLY. Data comprised HLY and life expectancy (LE) at birth 2004-09 from Eurostat. We estimated HLY in 2010 in each country by multiplying the Eurostat projections of LE in 2010 by the ratio HLY/LE obtained either from country and sex-specific linear regression models of HLY/LE on year (seven countries retaining same HLY question) or extrapolating the average of HLY/LE in 2008 and 2009 to 2010 (20 countries and EU27). The first scenario continued these trends with three other scenarios exploring different HLY gap reductions between 2010 and 2020. The estimated gap in HLY in 2010 was 17.5 years (men) and 18.9 years (women). Assuming current trends continue, EU27 HLY increased by 1.4 years (men) and 0.9 years (women), below the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing target, with the HLY gap between countries increasing to 18.3 years (men) and 19.5 years (women). To eliminate the HLY gap in 20 years, the EU27 must gain 4.4 HLY (men) and 4.8 HLY (women) in the next decade, which, for some countries, is substantially more than what the current trends suggest. Global targets for HLY move attention from inter-country differences and, alongside the current economic crisis, may contribute to increase health inequalities.

Pathophysiology of major depressive disorder: mechanisms involved in etiology are not associated with clinical progression.

PubMed

Verduijn, J; Milaneschi, Y; Schoevers, R A; van Hemert, A M; Beekman, A T F; Penninx, B W J H

2015-09-29

Meta-analyses support the involvement of different pathophysiological mechanisms (inflammation, hypothalamic-pituitary (HPA)-axis, neurotrophic growth and vitamin D) in major depressive disorder (MDD). However, it remains unknown whether dysregulations in these mechanisms are more pronounced when MDD progresses toward multiple episodes and/or chronicity. We hypothesized that four central pathophysiological mechanisms of MDD are not only involved in etiology, but also associated with clinical disease progression. Therefore, we expected to find increasingly more dysregulation across consecutive stages of MDD progression. The sample from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (18-65 years) consisted of 230 controls and 2333 participants assigned to a clinical staging model categorizing MDD in eight stages (0, 1A, 1B, 2, 3A, 3B, 3C and 4), from familial risk at MDD (stage 0) to chronic MDD (stage 4). Analyses of covariance examined whether pathophysiological mechanism markers (interleukin (IL)-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), cortisol, brain-derived neurotrophic factor and vitamin D) showed a linear trend across controls, those at risk for MDD (stages 0, 1A and 1B), and those with full-threshold MDD (stages 2, 3A, 3B, 3C and 4). Subsequently, pathophysiological differences across separate stages within those at risk and with full-threshold MDD were examined. A linear increase of inflammatory markers (CRP P=0.026; IL-6 P=0.090), cortisol (P=0.025) and decrease of vitamin D (P<0.001) was found across the entire sample (for example, from controls to those at risk and those with full-threshold MDD). Significant trends of dysregulations across stages were present in analyses focusing on at-risk individuals (IL-6 P=0.050; cortisol P=0.008; vitamin D P<0.001); however, no linear trends were found in dysregulations for any of the mechanisms across more progressive stages of full-threshold MDD. Our results support that the examined pathophysiological mechanisms are involved in MDD's etiology. These same mechanisms, however, are less important in clinical progression from first to later MDD episodes and toward chronicity.

Pathophysiology of major depressive disorder: mechanisms involved in etiology are not associated with clinical progression

PubMed Central

Verduijn, J; Milaneschi, Y; Schoevers, R A; van Hemert, A M; Beekman, A T F; Penninx, B W J H

2015-01-01

Meta-analyses support the involvement of different pathophysiological mechanisms (inflammation, hypothalamic–pituitary (HPA)-axis, neurotrophic growth and vitamin D) in major depressive disorder (MDD). However, it remains unknown whether dysregulations in these mechanisms are more pronounced when MDD progresses toward multiple episodes and/or chronicity. We hypothesized that four central pathophysiological mechanisms of MDD are not only involved in etiology, but also associated with clinical disease progression. Therefore, we expected to find increasingly more dysregulation across consecutive stages of MDD progression. The sample from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (18–65 years) consisted of 230 controls and 2333 participants assigned to a clinical staging model categorizing MDD in eight stages (0, 1A, 1B, 2, 3A, 3B, 3C and 4), from familial risk at MDD (stage 0) to chronic MDD (stage 4). Analyses of covariance examined whether pathophysiological mechanism markers (interleukin (IL)-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), cortisol, brain-derived neurotrophic factor and vitamin D) showed a linear trend across controls, those at risk for MDD (stages 0, 1A and 1B), and those with full-threshold MDD (stages 2, 3A, 3B, 3C and 4). Subsequently, pathophysiological differences across separate stages within those at risk and with full-threshold MDD were examined. A linear increase of inflammatory markers (CRP P=0.026; IL-6 P=0.090), cortisol (P=0.025) and decrease of vitamin D (P<0.001) was found across the entire sample (for example, from controls to those at risk and those with full-threshold MDD). Significant trends of dysregulations across stages were present in analyses focusing on at-risk individuals (IL-6 P=0.050; cortisol P=0.008; vitamin D P<0.001); however, no linear trends were found in dysregulations for any of the mechanisms across more progressive stages of full-threshold MDD. Our results support that the examined pathophysiological mechanisms are involved in MDD’s etiology. These same mechanisms, however, are less important in clinical progression from first to later MDD episodes and toward chronicity. PMID:26418277

Geography of blizzards in the conterminous United States, 1959--2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, Robert Michael

2001-07-01

Many individuals think of tornadoes and hurricanes when considering weather-related storms. However, winter storms and blizzards have potential impacts on millions of people and effects on the social landscape such as fatalities, injuries, and economic consequences. Additionally, these storms can last from a few hours to over a week. This study established a climatology of blizzards in the conterminous United States from 1959-2000 utilizing data from Storm Data to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of blizzards. The annual probability of a blizzard on a county level was calculated to give the empirical probability of having a blizzard in any given winter season. Additionally, the number of blizzards were compared to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection by running a linear regression to check for correlation. Finally, the social impacts of blizzards studied included the population affected, fatalities, injuries, property damage, crop damage, and federal disaster declarations. Maps were produced utilizing MapInfo and ArcView Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to summarize regional differences and temporal trends. There were 438 blizzards analyzed in the study with an annual mean of 10.7 blizzards per winter season with the majority of storms occurring in the northern Plains states of North Dakota, South Dakota, and western Minnesota. Time series analysis indicated an increase in the number of blizzards over the 41-year period while there was no linear trend of the area affected by blizzards. Annual probabilities of a blizzard were as high as 76% for Cavalier, Rolette, Steele, Towner, and Traill Counties in North Dakota. The ENSO teleconnection and the number of blizzards on the national scale suggested a negative correlation with fewer blizzards during El Nino episodes. Social impacts indicated blizzards affected 26.3 million per season with 16 fatalities and 49 injuries per season reported to Storm Data . The total population affected each winter did not show a linear trend. An average winter reported 551 million in property damage and 26 million in crop damage according to Storm Data. The number of declared disasters or emergencies due to blizzards has been increasing, especially in the 1990s.

[Trends in HIV prevalence and associated risk behaviors in female sex workers in Catalonia (Spain)].

PubMed

Folch, Cinta; Casabona, Jordi; Sanclemente, Cristina; Esteve, Anna; González, Victoria

2014-01-01

To describe trends in HIV prevalence, sexual risk behaviors and other sexual health indicators in female sex workers (SW) from 2005 to 2011. Cross-sectional studies were conducted biennially among SW recruited in Catalonia (Spain) in the street, flats and clubs (n = 400). In addition to an anonymous questionnaire, oral fluid samples were collected to estimate HIV prevalence. Linear trends in proportions were assessed by the Mantel test. The percentage of SW who used condoms inconsistently with clients (past 6 months) increased from 5.1% in 2005 to 9.9% in 2011 (p = 0.005); this percentage also increased with steady partners (86.2% in 2005 to 94.4% in 2011, p = 0.002). The prevalence of self-reported sexually transmitted infections (STI) increased from 14% in 2005 to 20.6% in 2011 (p = 0.001). The prevalence of HIV held constant over the years (about 2%), being higher in Spanish women (14.7% in 2011). The prevalence of HIV in SW remained stable over the years, being higher in Spanish SW. The increase in unprotected sex and in the prevalence of self-reported STI among SW from 2005 to 2011 highlights a possible relaxation in preventive behaviors in this group. Interventions to reduce the transmission of these infections, as well as unwanted pregnancies, should continue in Catalonia in SW. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2018-04-01

We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall amounts observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series according to their dependence. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequency for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200 mm in 1 day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this change ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200 mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events over the last decades. We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.

Effect of step width manipulation on tibial stress during running.

PubMed

Meardon, Stacey A; Derrick, Timothy R

2014-08-22

Narrow step width has been linked to variables associated with tibial stress fracture. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of step width on bone stresses using a standardized model of the tibia. 15 runners ran at their preferred 5k running velocity in three running conditions, preferred step width (PSW) and PSW±5% of leg length. 10 successful trials of force and 3-D motion data were collected. A combination of inverse dynamics, musculoskeletal modeling and beam theory was used to estimate stresses applied to the tibia using subject-specific anthropometrics and motion data. The tibia was modeled as a hollow ellipse. Multivariate analysis revealed that tibial stresses at the distal 1/3 of the tibia differed with step width manipulation (p=0.002). Compression on the posterior and medial aspect of the tibia was inversely related to step width such that as step width increased, compression on the surface of tibia decreased (linear trend p=0.036 and 0.003). Similarly, tension on the anterior surface of the tibia decreased as step width increased (linear trend p=0.029). Widening step width linearly reduced shear stress at all 4 sites (p<0.001 for all). The data from this study suggests that stresses experienced by the tibia during running were influenced by step width when using a standardized model of the tibia. Wider step widths were generally associated with reduced loading of the tibia and may benefit runners at risk of or experiencing stress injury at the tibia, especially if they present with a crossover running style. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can change in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels reduce cardiovascular risk?

PubMed

Dean, Bonnie B; Borenstein, Jeff E; Henning, James M; Knight, Kevin; Merz, C Noel Bairey

2004-06-01

The cardiovascular risk reduction observed in many trials of lipid-lowering agents is greater than expected on the basis of observed low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level reductions. Our objective was to explore the degree to which high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level changes explain cardiovascular risk reduction. A systematic review identified trials of lipid-lowering agents reporting changes in HDL-C and LDL-C levels and the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD). The observed relative risk reduction (RRR) in CHD morbidity and mortality rates was calculated. The expected RRR, given the treatment effect on total cholesterol level, was calculated for each trial with logistic regression coefficients from observational studies. The difference between observed and expected RRR was plotted against the change in HDL-C level, and a least-squares regression line was calculated. Fifty-one trials were identified. Nineteen statin trials addressed the association of HDL-C with CHD. Limited numbers of trials of other therapies precluded additional analyses. Among statin trials, therapy reduced total cholesterol levels as much as 32% and LDL-C levels as much as 45%. HDL-C level increases were <10%. Treatment effect on HDL-C levels was not a significant linear predictor of the difference in observed and expected CHD mortality rates, although we observed a trend in this direction (P =.08). Similarly, HDL-C effect was not a significant linear predictor of the difference between observed and expected RRRs for CHD morbidity (P =.20). Although a linear trend toward greater risk reduction was observed with greater effects on HDL-C, differences were not statistically significant. The narrow range of HDL-C level increases in the statin trials likely reduced our ability to detect a beneficial HDL-C effect, if present.

Complexity, self-organisation and variation in behaviour in meandering rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooke, J. M.

2007-11-01

River meanders are natural features on the surface of Earth that present some degree of regularity of form. They range from being highly dynamic to being stable under present conditions. Conventional theory is that meanders develop to an equilibrium form which is related to discharge and sediment load. Other research has demonstrated that many highly active meanders exhibit a continuous evolution over time and a non-linearity in rate of development. Ideas of autogenesis and of self-organised criticality as being an explanation of some meander changes have been proposed. In this paper data from rivers around the world are examined for further evidence of autogenic, self-organised or non-linear behaviour through analysis of change in sinuosity over time for reaches and change in individual bend form, particularly bend curvature and bend elongation. Some examples do exhibit trends of increasing sinuosity over time and a few show limits from which large decreases occur. Several case studies show non-linearity of behaviour and increasing complexity of form. Other case studies, however, do not exhibit such trends. Phase space plots are used to help uncover emergent behaviour but show a variety of patterns. The example of a reach in which multiple cut-offs occurred is analysed for mechanisms of self-organisation of the planform and in the pool-riffle pattern. Riffles are more closely spaced and also more transient in the more rapidly changing and higher sinuosity parts of the channel. Hypothetical trajectories of different meander behaviour, including for bedrock meanders, are plotted but the challenge remains to uncover the conditions for occurrence and for divergence of tendencies to stability and instability. Identification of attractors and phase space of behaviour of different meandering systems offer the potential for application to sustainable channel management.

Prevalence and Correlates of Tobacco and Nicotine Containing Product Use in a Sample of United States Air Force Trainees

PubMed Central

Derefinko, Karen J.; Bursac, Zoran; Ebbert, Jon O.; Colvin, Lauren; Talcott, Gerald W.; Hryshko-Mullen, Ann S.; Richey, Phyllis A.; Klesges, Robert C.

2016-01-01

Introduction: Although there is increasing attention to the prevalence of new and emerging tobacco products in the civilian population, remarkably little is known about the current prevalence of these products in a military population. Methods: The current investigation was designed to determine the prevalence of tobacco and nicotine containing products (TNCP) and correlates of use across multiple cohorts of trainees undergoing Technical Training in the US Air Force between April 2013 and December 2014. Chi-square test, Cochran–Armitage test for linear trend, and logistic regression models were applied to test differences and linear trends across time for TNCP use as well as correlates of use in a cross-sectional sample of 13 685 Airmen (final analytic sample). Results: Over a quarter (26.9%) of Airmen reported regular use of a TNCP. The two most prevalent products were cigarettes (11.2%) and hookah (10.5%). Among correlates of use, Airmen that regularly use TNCPs were more likely to be male, younger, non-Hispanic white, and single with a high school degree or General Education Development. Hookah was the most endorsed for intentions to use, and along with e-cigarettes, had the lowest perception of harm. While prevalence of most products remained constant across entering cohorts, the prevalence of e-cigarettes showed significant linear increase. Conclusions: The prevalence of TNCP use is high across cohorts of Airmen. Remarkably high estimates of future intentions to use and low perceptions of harm for emerging products suggest that intervention efforts should be directed at multiple forms of TNCP use to address this important public health issue. PMID:25895952

Modeled and observed ozone sensitivity to mobile-source emissions in Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavala, M.; Lei, W.; Molina, M. J.; Molina, L. T.

2009-01-01

The emission characteristics of mobile sources in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) have changed significantly over the past few decades in response to emission control policies, advancements in vehicle technologies and improvements in fuel quality, among others. Along with these changes, concurrent non-linear changes in photochemical levels and criteria pollutants have been observed, providing a unique opportunity to understand the effects of perturbations of mobile emission levels on the photochemistry in the region using observational and modeling approaches. The observed historical trends of ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) suggest that ozone production in the MCMA has changed from a low to a high VOC-sensitive regime over a period of 20 years. Comparison of the historical emission trends of CO, NOx and hydrocarbons derived from mobile-source emission studies in the MCMA from 1991 to 2006 with the trends of the concentrations of CO, NOx, and the CO/NOx ratio during peak traffic hours also indicates that fuel-based fleet average emission factors have significantly decreased for CO and VOCs during this period whereas NOx emission factors do not show any strong trend, effectively reducing the ambient VOC/NOx ratio. This study presents the results of model analyses on the sensitivity of the observed ozone levels to the estimated historical changes in its precursors. The model sensitivity analyses used a well-validated base case simulation of a high pollution episode in the MCMA with the mathematical Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) and the standard Brute Force Method (BFM) in the 3-D CAMx chemical transport model. The model reproduces adequately the observed historical trends and current photochemical levels. Comparison of the BFM and the DDM sensitivity techniques indicates that the model yields ozone values that increase linearly with NOx emission reductions and decrease linearly with VOC emission reductions only up to 30% from the base case. We further performed emissions perturbations from the gasoline fleet, diesel fleet, all mobile (gasoline plus diesel) and all emission sources (anthropogenic plus biogenic). The results suggest that although large ozone reductions obtained in the past were from changes in emissions from gasoline vehicles, currently significant benefits could be achieved with additional emission control policies directed to regulation of VOC emissions from diesel and area sources that are high emitters of alkenes, aromatics and aldehydes.

Modeled and observed ozone sensitivity to mobile-source emissions in Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavala, M.; Lei, W. F.; Molina, M. J.; Molina, L. T.

2008-08-01

The emission characteristics of mobile sources in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) have changed significantly over the past few decades in response to emission control policies, advancements in vehicle technologies and improvements in fuel quality, among others. Along with these changes, concurrent non-linear changes in photochemical levels and criteria pollutants have been observed, providing a unique opportunity to understand the effects of perturbations of mobile emission levels on the photochemistry in the region using observational and modeling approaches. The observed historical trends of ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) suggest that ozone production in the MCMA has changed from a low to a high VOC-sensitive regime over a period of 20 years. Comparison of the historical emission trends of CO, NOx and hydrocarbons derived from mobile-source emission studies in the MCMA from 1991 to 2006 with the trends of the concentrations of CO, NOx, and the CO/NOx ratio during peak traffic hours also indicates that fuel-based fleet average emission factors have significantly decreased for CO and VOCs during this period whereas NOx emission factors do not show any strong trend, effectively reducing the ambient VOC/NOx ratio. This study presents the results of model analyses on the sensitivity of the observed ozone levels to the estimated historical changes in its precursors. The model sensitivity analyses used a well-validated base case simulation of a high pollution episode in the MCMA with the mathematical Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) and the standard Brute Force Method (BFM) in the 3-D CAMx chemical transport model. The model reproduces adequately the observed historical trends and current photochemical levels. Comparison of the BFM and the DDM sensitivity techniques indicates that the model yields ozone values that increase linearly with NOx emission reductions and decrease linearly with VOC emission reductions only up to 30% from the base case. We further performed emissions perturbations from the gasoline fleet, diesel fleet, all mobile (gasoline plus diesel) and all emission sources (anthropogenic plus biogenic). The results suggest that although large ozone reductions obtained in the past were from changes in emissions from gasoline vehicles, currently significant benefits could be achieved with additional emission control policies directed to regulation of VOC emissions from diesel and area sources that are high emitters of alkenes, aromatics and aldehydes.

Sex-dependent and body weight-dependent associations between environmental PAHs exposure and insulin resistance: Korean urban elderly panel

PubMed Central

Choi, Yoon-Hyeong; Kim, Jin Hee; Hong, Yun-Chul

2015-01-01

Background The prevalence of metabolic diseases rises rapidly with an ageing population. Recent studies suggest the potential involvement of environmental chemicals in insulin resistance (IR) that plays a core role in the development of metabolic diseases. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous components of outdoor and indoor air pollution. The influence of PAHs on IR may differ depending on sex and weight. Objectives We examined the association between exposure to environmental PAHs and IR in Korean urban elderly adults controlling for major risk factors that contribute to an increase in IR. Methods Between 2008 and 2010, PAH metabolite levels (urinary 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OHP)) and the homoeostatic model assessment index (HOMA-IR) were repeatedly measured in 502 adults aged ≥60 years. Linear mixed effect models were fit to evaluate the associations of 1-OHP concentration with HOMA-IR. Subgroups were modelled by sex and weight. Results After adjusting for sociodemographics, air pollution and metabolic disease status, the highest (vs lowest) quartile of 1-OHP was associated with an 0.57 (95% CI 0.10 to 1.04) increase in the HOMA-IR score (p trend=0.037). When stratified by sex, women presented a significantly dose-dependent trend of 1-OHP with HOMA-IR (p trend=0.013), whereas no association was observed in men (p trend=0.904). When further stratified by weight (body mass index ≥25 vs <25 kg/m2), a significant association was found only in overweight women (p trend=0.023). Conclusions Our results suggest that environmental exposure to PAHs is associated with increased IR in elderly adults and that the association may be limited to overweight women. PMID:25669219

Mai Population

PubMed

Sripan, Patumrat; Sriplung, Hutcha; Pongnikorn, Donsuk; Virani, Shama; Bilheem, Surichai; Chaisaengkhaum, Udomlak; Maneesai, Puttachart; Waisri, Narate; Hanpragopsuk, Chirapong; Tansiri, Panrada; Khamsan, Varunee; Poungsombat, Malisa; Mawoot, Aumnart; Chitapanarux, Imjai

2017-05-01

Objectives: This study was conducted to determine incidence trends of female breast cancer according to age groups and to predict future change in Chiang Mai women through 2028. Method: Data were collected from all hospitals in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, from 1989 through 2013, and used to investigate effects of age, year of diagnosis (period) and year of birth (cohort) on female breast cancer incidences using an age-period-cohort model. This model features geometric cut trends to predict change by young (<40 years), middle-aged (40-59) and elderly (≥60) age groups. Result: Of 5, 417 female breast cancer patients with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range: 43 to 59 years), 15%, 61% and 24% were young, middle-aged and elderly, respectively. Seventy nine percent of cancer cases in this study were detected at advanced stage. The trend in stage classification showed an increase in percentage of early stage and a decrease in metastatic cancers. Linear trends for cohort and period were not found in young females but were observed in middle-aged and elderly groups. Age-standardized rates (ASR) can be expected to remain stable around 6.8 per 100,000 women-years in young females. In the other age groups, the ASR trends were calculated to increase and reach peaks in 2024 of 120.2 and 138.2 per 100,000 women-years, respectively. Conclusion: Cohort effects or generation-specific effects, such as life style factors and the year of diagnosis (period) might have impacted on increased incidence in women aged over 40 years but not those under 40 years. A budget should be provided for treatment facilities and strategies to detect early stage cancers. The cost effectiveness of screening measures i.e. mammographic screening may need to be reconsidered for women age over 40 years. Creative Commons Attribution License

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

Genetic and environmental continuity in personality development: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Briley, Daniel A; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M

2014-09-01

The longitudinal stability of personality is low in childhood but increases substantially into adulthood. Theoretical explanations for this trend differ in the emphasis placed on intrinsic maturation and socializing influences. To what extent does the increasing stability of personality result from the continuity and crystallization of genetically influenced individual differences, and to what extent does the increasing stability of life experiences explain increases in personality trait stability? Behavioral genetic studies, which decompose longitudinal stability into sources associated with genetic and environmental variation, can help to address this question. We aggregated effect sizes from 24 longitudinal behavioral genetic studies containing information on a total of 21,057 sibling pairs from 6 types that varied in terms of genetic relatedness and ranged in age from infancy to old age. A combination of linear and nonlinear meta-analytic regression models were used to evaluate age trends in levels of heritability and environmentality, stabilities of genetic and environmental effects, and the contributions of genetic and environmental effects to overall phenotypic stability. Both the genetic and environmental influences on personality increase in stability with age. The contribution of genetic effects to phenotypic stability is moderate in magnitude and relatively constant with age, in part because of small-to-moderate decreases in the heritability of personality over child development that offset increases in genetic stability. In contrast, the contribution of environmental effects to phenotypic stability increases from near zero in early childhood to moderate in adulthood. The life-span trend of increasing phenotypic stability, therefore, predominantly results from environmental mechanisms. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Genetic and Environmental Continuity in Personality Development: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Briley, Daniel A.; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M.

2014-01-01

The longitudinal stability of personality is low in childhood, but increases substantially into adulthood. Theoretical explanations for this trend differ in the emphasis placed on intrinsic maturation and socializing influences. To what extent does the increasing stability of personality result from the continuity and crystallization of genetically influenced individual differences, and to what extent does the increasing stability of life experiences explain increases in personality trait stability? Behavioral genetic studies, which decompose longitudinal stability into sources associated with genetic and environmental variation, can help to address this question. We aggregated effect sizes from 24 longitudinal behavioral genetic studies containing information on a total of 21,057 sibling pairs from six types that varied in terms of genetic relatedness and ranged in age from infancy to old age. A combination of linear and nonlinear meta-analytic regression models were used to evaluate age-trends in levels of heritability and environmentality, stabilities of genetic and environmental effects, and the contributions of genetic and environmental effects to overall phenotypic stability. Both the genetic and environmental influences on personality increase in stability with age. The contribution of genetic effects to phenotypic stability is moderate in magnitude and relatively constant with age, in part because of small-to-moderate decreases in the heritability of personality over child development that offset increases in genetic stability. In contrast, the contribution of environmental effects to phenotypic stability increases from near-zero in early childhood to moderate in adulthood. The lifespan trend of increasing phenotypic stability, therefore, predominantly results from environmental mechanisms. PMID:24956122

Cardiac Stress Test Trends Among US Patients Younger Than 65 Years, 2005-2012.

PubMed

Kini, Vinay; McCarthy, Fenton H; Dayoub, Elias; Bradley, Steven M; Masoudi, Frederick A; Ho, P Michael; Groeneveld, Peter W

2016-12-01

After a period of rapid growth, use of cardiac stress testing has recently decreased among Medicare beneficiaries and in a large integrated health system. However, it is not known whether declines in cardiac stress testing are universal or are confined to certain populations. To determine trends in rates of cardiac stress testing among a large and diverse cohort of commercially insured patients. A serial cross-sectional study with time trends was conducted using administrative claims from all members aged 25 to 64 years belonging to a large, national managed care company from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2012. Linear trends in rates were determined using negative binomial regression models with procedure count as the dependent variable, calendar quarter as the key independent variable, and the size of the population as a logged offset term. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2012. Age- and sex-adjusted rates of cardiac stress tests per calendar quarter (reported as number of tests per 100 000 person-years). A total of 2 085 591 cardiac stress tests were performed among 32 921 838 persons (mean [SD] age, 43.2 [10.9] years; 16 625 528 women [50.5%] and 16 296 310 [49.5%] men; 7 604 945 nonwhite [23.1%]). There was a 3.0% increase in rates of cardiac stress testing from 2005 (3486 tests; 95% CI, 3458-3514) to 2012 (3589 tests; 95% CI, 3559-3619; P = .01 for linear trend). Use of nuclear single-photon emission computed tomography decreased by 14.9% from 2005 (1907 tests; 95% CI, 1888-1926) to 2012 (1623 tests; 95% CI, 1603-1643; P = .03). Use of stress echocardiography increased by 27.8% from 2005 (709 tests; 95% CI, 697-721) to 2012 (906 tests; 95% CI, 894 to 920; P < .001). Use of exercise electrocardiography increased by 12.5% from 2005 (861 tests; 95% CI, 847-873) to 2012 (969 tests; 95% CI, 953-985; P < .001). Use of other stress testing modalities increased 65.5% from 2006 (55 tests; 95% CI, 51-59) to 2012 (91 tests; 95% CI, 87-95; P < .001). For individuals aged 25 to 34 years, rates of cardiac stress testing increased 59.1% from 2005 (543 tests; 95% CI, 532-554) to 2012 (864 tests; 95% CI, 852-876; P < .001). For individuals aged 55 to 64 years, rates of cardiac stress testing decreased by 12.3% from 2005 (7894 tests; 95% CI, 7820-7968) to 2012 (6923 tests; 95% CI, 6853-6993; P < .001). In contrast to declines in the use of cardiac stress testing in some health care systems, we observed a small increase in its use among a nationally representative cohort of commercially insured patients. Our findings suggest that observed trends in the use of cardiac stress testing may have been driven more by unique characteristics of populations and health systems than national efforts to reduce the overuse of testing.

Effect of cellulosic fiber scale on linear and non-linear mechanical performance of starch-based composites.

PubMed

Karimi, Samaneh; Abdulkhani, Ali; Tahir, Paridah Md; Dufresne, Alain

2016-10-01

Cellulosic nanofibers (NFs) from kenaf bast were used to reinforce glycerol plasticized thermoplastic starch (TPS) matrices with varying contents (0-10wt%). The composites were prepared by casting/evaporation method. Raw fibers (RFs) reinforced TPS films were prepared with the same contents and conditions. The aim of study was to investigate the effects of filler dimension and loading on linear and non-linear mechanical performance of fabricated materials. Obtained results clearly demonstrated that the NF-reinforced composites had significantly greater mechanical performance than the RF-reinforced counterparts. This was attributed to the high aspect ratio and nano dimension of the reinforcing agents, as well as their compatibility with the TPS matrix, resulting in strong fiber/matrix interaction. Tensile strength and Young's modulus increased by 313% and 343%, respectively, with increasing NF content from 0 to 10wt%. Dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) revealed an elevational trend in the glass transition temperature of amylopectin-rich domains in composites. The most eminent record was +18.5°C shift in temperature position of the film reinforced with 8% NF. This finding implied efficient dispersion of nanofibers in the matrix and their ability to form a network and restrict mobility of the system. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trend-outflow method for understanding interactions of surface water with groundwater and atmospheric water for eight reaches of the Upper Rio Grande

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yi; Sheng, Zhuping

2011-11-01

SummaryAtmospheric water, surface water, and groundwater interact very actively through hydrologic processes such as precipitation, infiltration, seepage, irrigation, drainage, evaporation, and evapotranspiration in the Upper Rio Grande Basin. A trend-outflow method has been developed in this paper to gain a better understanding of the interactions based on cumulated inflow and outflow data for any river reaches of interest. A general trend-outflow equation was derived by associating the net interaction of surface water with atmospheric water as a polynomial of inflow and the net interaction of surface water with groundwater as a constant based on surface water budget. Linear and quadratic relations are probably two common trend-outflow types in the real world. It was found that trend-outflows of the Upper Rio Grande reaches, Española, Albuquerque, Socorro-Engle, Palomas, and Rincon are linear with inflow, while those of reaches, Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are quadratic. Reaches Belen, Mesilla and Hueco are found as water deficit reaches mainly for irrigated agriculture in extreme drought years.

Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Erickson, M. P.; Smith, M. R.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. In the Utah-Nevada area, linear structural trends recorded on ERTS-1 imagery conform in part to previously recognized structures. In addition, the ERTS-1 imagery reveals cryptic structures not previously identified and not readily apparent in other imagery. These structures are illustrated by prominent east-west trending structures which appear to be concentrated in pre-volcanic rocks. This suggests that the structures are older than many of those with other trends which are equally prominent in volcanic and non-volcanic terrain. Since the older east-west structures may have controlled early Tertiary emplacement of magma or the ascent of mineralizing fluids, their recognition is important in minerial exploration. Soil-gas sampling and analysis for mercury content is being continued over structures, and projected trends of buried structures which appear, from studies of ERTS-1 imagery, to be favorable to mineralization. Comparison of ERTS-1 and Skylab imagery indicated that ERTS-1 imagery records more previously unrecognized linear structures than the Skylab imagery. In differentiating and identifying different rock types, the Skylab imagery appears to be more effective.

AIDS in adults 50 years of age and over: characteristics, trends and spatial distribution of the risk.

PubMed

Nogueira, Jordana de Almeida; Silva, Antônia Oliveira; Sá, Laísa Ribeiro de; Almeida, Sandra Aparecida de; Monroe, Aline Aparecida; Villa, Tereza Cristina Scatena

2014-01-01

to analyze the sociodemographic characteristics, epidemic trend and spatial distribution of the risk of AIDS in adults 50 years of age and over. population-based, ecological study, that used secondary data from the Notifiable Disease Information System (Sinan/AIDS) of Paraíba state from the period January 2000 to December 2010. during the study period, 307 cases of AIDS were reported among people 50 years of age or over. There was a predominance of males (205/66, 8%), mixed race, and low education levels. The municipalities with populations above 100 thousand inhabitants reported 58.5% of the cases. There was a progressive increase in cases among women; an increasing trend in the incidence (positive linear correlation); and an advance in the geographical spread of the disease, with expansion to the coastal region and to the interior of the state, reaching municipalities with populations below 30 thousand inhabitants. In some locations the risk of disease was 100 times greater than the relative risk for the state. aging, with the feminization and interiorization of the epidemic in adults 50 years of age and over, confirms the need for the induction of affirmative policies targeted toward this age group.

Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

PubMed

Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

2017-12-01

Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Authorship in Radiation Oncology: Proliferation Trends Over 30 Years.

PubMed

Ojerholm, Eric; Swisher-McClure, Samuel

2015-11-15

To investigate authorship trends in the radiation oncology literature. We examined the authorship credits of "original research articles" within 2 popular radiation oncology journals-International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics and Radiotherapy and Oncology-in 1984, 1994, 2004, and 2014. We compared the number of authors per publication during these 4 time periods using simple linear regression as a test for trend. We investigated additional author characteristics in a subset of articles. A total of 2005 articles were eligible. The mean number of authors per publication rose from 4.3 in 1984 to 9.1 in 2014 (P<.001). On subset analysis of 400 articles, there was an increase in the percentage of multidisciplinary bylines (from 52% to 72%), multi-institutional bylines (from 20% to 53%), and publications with a trainee first author (from 16% to 56%) during the study period. The mean number of authors per publication has more than doubled over the last 30 years in the radiation oncology literature. Possible explanations include increasingly complex and collaborative research as well as honorary authorship. Explicit documentation of author contributions could help ensure that scientific work is credited according to accepted standards. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methodological uncertainties in multi-regression analyses of middle-atmospheric data series.

PubMed

Kerzenmacher, Tobias E; Keckhut, Philippe; Hauchecorne, Alain; Chanin, Marie-Lise

2006-07-01

Multi-regression analyses have often been used recently to detect trends, in particular in ozone or temperature data sets in the stratosphere. The confidence in detecting trends depends on a number of factors which generate uncertainties. Part of these uncertainties comes from the random variability and these are what is usually considered. They can be statistically estimated from residual deviations between the data and the fitting model. However, interferences between different sources of variability affecting the data set, such as the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation (QBO), volcanic aerosols, solar flux variability and the trend can also be a critical source of errors. This type of error has hitherto not been well quantified. In this work an artificial data series has been generated to carry out such estimates. The sources of errors considered here are: the length of the data series, the dependence on the choice of parameters used in the fitting model and the time evolution of the trend in the data series. Curves provided here, will permit future studies to test the magnitude of the methodological bias expected for a given case, as shown in several real examples. It is found that, if the data series is shorter than a decade, the uncertainties are very large, whatever factors are chosen to identify the source of the variability. However the errors can be limited when dealing with natural variability, if a sufficient number of periods (for periodic forcings) are covered by the analysed dataset. However when analysing the trend, the response to volcanic eruption induces a bias, whatever the length of the data series. The signal to noise ratio is a key factor: doubling the noise increases the period for which data is required in order to obtain an error smaller than 10%, from 1 to 3-4 decades. Moreover, if non-linear trends are superimposed on the data, and if the length of the series is longer than five years, a non-linear function has to be used to estimate trends. When applied to real data series, and when a breakpoint in the series occurs, the study reveals that data extending over 5 years are needed to detect a significant change in the slope of the ozone trends at mid-latitudes.

Magnetic and gravity anomalies of the slow-spreading system in the Gulf of Aden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakanishi, M.; Fujimoto, H.; Tamaki, K.; Okino, K.

2002-12-01

The spreading system in the Gulf of Aden between Somalia, NE Africa, and Arabia has an ENE-WSW trend and its half spreading rate is about 1.0 cm/yr (e.g., Jestin et al., 1994). Previous studies (e.g., Tamsett and Searle, 1988) provided the general morphology of the spreading system. To reveal detailed morphology and tectonics of the spreading system in the Gulf of Aden, geophysical investigation was conducted along the spreading system between 45°30OE and 50°20OE by the R/V Hakuho-maru from December 2000 to January 2001. Bathymetric data were collected using an echo sounder SEA BEAM 2120 aboard R/V Hakuho-maru. Magnetic and gravity data were collected by towed proton magnetometer and shipboard gravimeter, respectively. The strike of the spreading centers east of 46°30OE is N65°W. The topographic expression of the spreading centers east of N46°30OE is an axial rift valley offset by transform faults siilar to that observed at slow spreading centers in other areas. The bathymetric feature of the spreading centers between 45°50OE and 46°30OE with a strike N80°E is N65°W trending en-echelon basins. The spreading center west of 45°50OE with a strike E-W is bouned by linear ridges and its bathymetric expression is N65°W trending en-echelon ridges. The axial rift valley west of N46°30OE is not offset by any prominent transform faults. Negative magnetic anomaly is dominant over the axial valleys. Its amplitude is about 500 nT and the wavelength is about 30 km. Prominent linear negative magnetic anomaly, which is more than 1000 nT, exists west of N46°30OE. The strike of the linear magnetic anomaly correlates with that of axial valleys west of N46°30OE. Mantle Bouguer gravity anomaly of the spreading centers increases eastward. This trend correlates with the eastward deepening of spreading centers.

Bibliometric Analysis of Gender Authorship Trends and Collaboration Dynamics Over 30 Years of Spine 1985 to 2015.

PubMed

Brinker, Alexander R; Liao, Jane L; Kraus, Kent R; Young, Jocelyn; Sandelski, Morgan; Mikesell, Carter; Robinson, Daniel; Adjei, Michael; Lunsford, Shatoria D; Fischer, James; Kacena, Melissa A; Whipple, Elizabeth C; Loder, Randall T

2018-07-15

A bibliometric analysis. The aim of this article was to study bibliometric changes over the last 30 years of Spine. These trends are important regarding academic publication productivity. Inflation in authorship number and other bibliometric variables has been described in the scientific literature. The issue of author gender is taking on increasing importance, as efforts are being made to close the gender gap. From 1985 to 2015, 10-year incremental data for several bibliometric variables were collected, including author gender. Standard bivariate statistical analyses were performed. Trends over time were assessed by the Cochran linear trend. A P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Inclusion criteria were met for 1566 manuscripts. The majority of the manuscripts were from North America (51.2%), Europe (25.2%), and Asia (20.8%). The number of manuscripts, authors, countries, pages, and references all increased from 1985 to 2015. There was a slight increase in female first authors over time (17.5% to 18.4%, P = 0.048). There was no gender change over time for corresponding authors (14.3% to 14.0%, P = 0.29). There was an 88% increase in the percentage of female first authors having male corresponding authors (P = 0.00004), and a 123% increase in male first authors having female corresponding authors (P = 0.0002). The 14% to 18% of female authors in Spine is higher than the ∼5% female membership of the Scoliosis Research Society and North American Spine Society. Manuscripts in Spine over the past 30 years have shown a significant increase in the number of authors, collaborating institutions and countries, printed pages, references, and number of times each manuscript was cited. There has been a mild increase in female first authorship, but none in corresponding authorship. Increases in female authorship will likely require recruitment of more females into the discipline rather than providing females in the discipline with authorship opportunities. N/A.

Atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado and southern Wyoming - A review and new analysis of past study results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.

2003-01-01

The Rocky Mountain region of Colorado and southern Wyoming receives as much as 7kgha-1yr-1 of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, an amount that may have caused changes in aquatic and terrestrial life in otherwise pristine ecosystems. Results from published studies indicate a long-term increase in the rate of atmospheric N deposition during the 20th century, but data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and Clean Air Status and Trends Network show no region-wide increase during the past 2 decades. Nitrogen loads in atmospheric wet deposition have increased since the mid-1980s, however, at three high elevation (>3000m) sites east of the Continental Divide in the Front Range. Much of this increase is the result of increased ammonium (NH4+) concentrations in wet deposition. This suggests an increase in contributions from agricultural areas or from vehicles east of the Rocky Mountains and is consistent with the results of previous studies that have suggested a significant eastern source for atmospheric N deposition to the Front Range. The four sites with the highest NH4+ concentrations in wet deposition were among the six easternmost NADP sites, which is also consistent with a source to the east of the Rockies. This analysis found an increase in N loads in wet deposition at Niwot Ridge of only 0.013kgha-1yr-1, more than an order of magnitude less than previously reported for this site. This lower rate of increase results from application of the non-parametric Seasonal Kendall trend test to mean monthly data, which failed a test for normality, in contrast to linear regression, which was applied to mean annual data in a previous study. Current upward trends in population growth and energy use in Colorado and throughout the west suggest a need for continued monitoring of atmospheric deposition of N, and may reveal more widespread trends in N deposition in the future.

Trajectories of eGFR decline over a four year period in an Indigenous Australian population at high risk of CKD-the eGFR follow up study.

PubMed

Barzi, Federica; Jones, Graham R D; Hughes, Jaquelyne T; Lawton, Paul D; Hoy, Wendy; O'Dea, Kerin; Jerums, George; MacIsaac, Richard J; Cass, Alan; Maple-Brown, Louise J

2018-03-01

Being able to estimate kidney decline accurately is particularly important in Indigenous Australians, a population at increased risk of developing chronic kidney disease and end stage kidney disease. The aim of this analysis was to explore the trend of decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over a four year period using multiple local creatinine measures, compared with estimates derived using centrally-measured enzymatic creatinine and with estimates derived using only two local measures. The eGFR study comprised a cohort of over 600 Aboriginal Australian participants recruited from over twenty sites in urban, regional and remote Australia across five strata of health, diabetes and kidney function. Trajectories of eGFR were explored on 385 participants with at least three local creatinine records using graphical methods that compared the linear trends fitted using linear mixed models with non-linear trends fitted using fractional polynomial equations. Temporal changes of local creatinine were also characterized using group-based modelling. Analyses were stratified by eGFR (<60; 60-89; 90-119 and ≥120ml/min/1.73m 2 ) and albuminuria categories (<3mg/mmol; 3-30mg/mmol; >30mg/mmol). Mean age of the participants was 48years, 64% were female and the median follow-up was 3years. Decline of eGFR was accurately estimated using simple linear regression models and locally measured creatinine was as good as centrally measured creatinine at predicting kidney decline in people with an eGFR<60 and an eGFR 60-90ml/min/1.73m 2 with albuminuria. Analyses showed that one baseline and one follow-up locally measured creatinine may be sufficient to estimate short term (up to four years) kidney function decline. The greatest yearly decline was estimated in those with eGFR 60-90 and macro-albuminuria: -6.21 (-8.20, -4.23) ml/min/1.73m 2 . Short term estimates of kidney function decline can be reliably derived using an easy to implement and simple to interpret linear mixed effect model. Locally measured creatinine did not differ to centrally measured creatinine, thus is an accurate cost-efficient and timely means to monitoring kidney function progression. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trend in the affordability of tobacco products in Bangladesh: findings from the ITC Bangladesh Surveys.

PubMed

Nargis, Nigar; Stoklosa, Michal; Drope, Jeffrey; Fong, Geoffrey T; Quah, Anne C K; Driezen, Pete; Shang, Ce; Chaloupka, Frank J; Hussain, A K M Ghulam

2018-04-19

The price of tobacco products in relation to the income of tobacco users-affordability-is recognised as a key determinant of tobacco use behaviour. The effectiveness of a price increase as a deterrent to tobacco use depends on how much price increases in relation to the income of the potential users. The aim of this paper is to examine the distribution of and trends in the affordability of tobacco products in Bangladesh. Using four waves of International Tobacco Control Survey data on Bangladesh, this study measures affordability of tobacco products at the individual level as the ratio of self-reported price and self-reported income. The trends in affordability by brand categories of cigarettes and of bidi and smokeless tobacco are estimated using multivariate linear regression analysis. Despite significant increase in price, the affordability of cigarettes increased between 2009 and 2014-2015 due to income growth outpacing price increase. The increase was disproportionately larger for more expensive brands. The affordability of bidis increased over this period as well. The affordability of smokeless tobacco products remained unchanged between 2011-2012 and 2014-2015. The tax increases that were implemented during 2009-2015 were not enough to increase tobacco product prices sufficiently to outweigh the effect of income growth, and to reduce tobacco consumption. The findings from this research inform policymakers that in countries experiencing rapid economic growth, significant tax increases are needed to counteract the effect of income growth, in order for the tax increases to be effective in reducing tobacco use. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Participation trends in holistic movement practices: a 10-year comparison of yoga/Pilates and t'ai chi/qigong use among a national sample of 195,926 Australians.

PubMed

Vergeer, Ineke; Bennie, Jason A; Charity, Melanie J; Harvey, Jack T; van Uffelen, Jannique G Z; Biddle, Stuart J H; Eime, Rochelle M

2017-06-06

In recent decades, the evidence supporting the physical and mental health benefits of holistic movement practices such as yoga and t'ai chi have become increasingly established. Consequently, investigating the participation prevalence and patterns of these practices is a relevant pursuit in the public health field. Few studies have provided population-level assessment of participation rates, however, and even fewer have focused on patterns over time. The purpose of this study was to examine participation prevalence and trends in yoga/Pilates and t'ai chi/qigong over a ten-year period in a nationally representative sample of Australians aged 15 years and over, with particular attention to sex and age. A secondary purpose was to juxtapose these findings with participation trends in traditional fitness activities over the same period. Data comprised modes and types of physical activity, age, and sex variables collected through the Exercise, Recreation and Sport Survey (ERASS), a series of independent cross-sectional Australia-wide surveys conducted yearly between 2001 and 2010. For each year, weighted population estimates were calculated for those participating in yoga/Pilates, t'ai chi/qigong, and fitness activities (e.g. aerobics, calisthenics). Linear regression and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to examine trends in prevalence rates over time and differences among sex and age (15-34; 35-54; 55+ years) groups, respectively. Average prevalence rates between 2001 and 2010 were 3.0% (95% CI 2.9-3.1) for yoga/Pilates, 0.6% (95% CI 0.5-0.6) for t'ai chi/qigong, and 19.2% (95% CI 18.9-19.4) for fitness activities. Across the decade, overall participation rates remained relatively stable for yoga/Pilates and t'ai chi/qigong, while increasing linearly for fitness activities. For both genders and in all three age groups, participation in fitness activities increased, whereas only in the 55+ age group was there a significant increase in yoga/Pilates participation; participation in t'ai chi/qigong declined significantly in the two younger age groups. Participation rates in yoga/Pilates and t'ai chi/qigong in Australia were low and relatively stable. As fitness activities increased in popularity across the decade, holistic movement practices did not. These findings point to the need to investigate activity-specific barriers and facilitators to participation, including intrapersonal, interpersonal, organisational, and environmental factors.

Long terms trends in CD4+ cell counts, CD8+ cell counts, and the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio

PubMed Central

Hughes, Rachael A.; May, Margaret T.; Tilling, Kate; Taylor, Ninon; Wittkop, Linda; Reiss, Peter; Gill, John; Schommers, Philipp; Costagliola, Dominique; Guest, Jodie L.; Lima, Viviane D.; d’Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Smith, Colette; Cavassini, Matthias; Saag, Michael; Castilho, Jessica L.; Sterne, Jonathan A.C.

2018-01-01

Objective: Model trajectories of CD4+ and CD8+ cell counts after starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) and use the model to predict trends in these counts and the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio. Design: Cohort study of antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive adults who started ART after 1997 (ART Cohort Collaboration) with more than 6 months of follow-up data. Methods: We jointly estimated CD4+ and CD8+ cell count trends and their correlation using a bivariate random effects model, with linear splines describing their population trends, and predicted the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio trend from this model. We assessed whether CD4+ and CD8+ cell count trends and the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio trend varied according to CD4+ cell count at start of ART (baseline), and, whether these trends differed in patients with and without virological failure more than 6 months after starting ART. Results: A total of 39 979 patients were included (median follow-up was 53 months). Among patients with baseline CD4+ cell count at least 50 cells/μl, predicted mean CD8+ cell counts continued to decrease between 3 and 15 years post-ART, partly driving increases in the predicted mean CD4+ : CD8+ ratio. During 15 years of follow-up, normalization of the predicted mean CD4+ : CD8+ ratio (to >1) was only observed among patients with baseline CD4+ cell count at least 200 cells/μl. A higher baseline CD4+ cell count predicted a shorter time to normalization. Conclusion: Declines in CD8+ cell count and increases in CD4+ : CD8+ ratio occurred up to 15 years after starting ART. The likelihood of normalization of the CD4+ : CD8+ ratio is strongly related to baseline CD4+ cell count. PMID:29851663

Trend of Body Compositions with Aging among Chinese Adolescents, Adults and Elders.

PubMed

Xu, T; Zhu, G; Han, S

2015-12-01

Rare reports can be found about sex- and age-specific body composition survey among Chinese population. The aim of this study is to explore the change of sex-specific body compositions with aging among Chinese adolescents, adults and elders. In a large-scale population survey about physiological constants and health conditions, 75,714 subjects who aged from 8 to 80 completed body composition array. Body mass index (BMI), percentage body fat (PBF), water percentage of body weight (WPBW), water percentage of lean body mass (WPLBM), fat-free mass index (FFMI) and basic metabolic rate were examined with Biodynamics BI-310 body composition analyzer. General obesity is defined as BMI equal to or greater than 28 kg/m2. The prevalence rates of general obesity were 9.4% for males and 7.7% for females respectively. With aging, PBF and FMI showed a U-shape curvilinear trend and WPBW showed a parabolic trend for males. At same age group: 18-19 age groups, PBF and FMI declined to the valley and WPBW rose to the peak. For females, PBF, WPBW and FMI changed in a linear trend. The values of WPLBM and FFMI showed same curvilinear trend for two genders. WPLBM changed in a U-shape trend and touched the valley in twenties for males and in 18-19 age groups for females. The value of FFMI was larger for older age groups in the younger generation but smaller in the older generation. A parabolic trend peaking was seen in the thirties for males and in the forties for females. Regression models with age as independent variable showed that the larger rate of increase of PBF and smaller rates of increase for WPBM and WPLBM with aging for males. This study presents detailed data about sex-specific body composition conditions. Different change trend with aging was found about body composition conditions.

Dry spell trend analysis in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin using daily rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muita, R. R.; van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.

2012-04-01

Important agricultural areas in Kenya and the Murray Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia are largely semi-arid to arid. Persistent dry periods and timing of dry spells directly impact the availability of soil moisture and hence crop production in these regions. Most studies focus on the analysis of dry spell lengths at an annual scale. However, timing and length of dry spells at finer temporal scales is more beneficial for cropping when considering a trade-off between the time scale and the ability to analyse dry spell length. The aim of this study was to analyse the interannual and intra annual variations in dry spell lengths in the regions to inform crop management. This study analysed monthly dry spells based on daily rainfall for 1961-2010 on a limited dataset of 13 locations in Kenya and 17 locations in the MDB. This dataset was the most consistent across both regions and future analysis will incorporate more stations and longer time periods where available. Dry spell lengths were analysed by month and year and trends in monthly and annual dry spell lengths were analysed using Generalised Linear Models (GLM) and the Mann Kendall test (MK). Overall, monthly dryspell lengths are right skewed with higher frequency of shorter dryspells (3-25 days). In Kenya, significant increases in mean dry spell lengths (p≤0.02) are observed in inland arid-to semi humid locations but this temporal trend appears to decrease in highland and the coastal regions. Analysis of the MDB stations suggests changes in seasonality. For example, spatial trends suggest a North-South increase in dry spell length in summer (December - February), but a shortening after February. Generally, the GLM and MK results are similar in the two regions but the MK test tends to give higher values of positive slope coefficients and lower values for negative coefficients compared to GLM. This may limit the ability of finding the best estimates for model coefficients. Previous studies in Australia and Kenya have relied on continuous climatic indices based on global climate models and stochastic processes resulting in limited and mixed results. For agronomical purposes, our results show that direct assessment of dry spells lengths from daily rainfall also indicates changes in dry spells trends in Kenya and the MDB and that such an analysis is easy to use and requires limited assumptions. This initial analysis identifies significant increasing trends in the dry spell lengths in some areas and periods in Kenya and the MDB. This has major implications for crop production in these regions and it is recommended that this information be incorporated in the regions' management decisions. KEY WORDS: monthly dry spell length; Generalized Linear Models; Mann -Kendall test; month; Kenya, Murray Darling Basin (MDB).

A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany☆

PubMed Central

Kattenbach, Ralph; Schneidhofer, Thomas M.; Lücke, Janine; Latzke, Markus; Loacker, Bernadette; Schramm, Florian; Mayrhofer, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time. PMID:24493876

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network

PubMed Central

Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Tang, Zheng

2017-01-01

With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient. PMID:28246527

The Use of Crow-AMSAA Plots to Assess Mishap Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dawson, Jeffrey W.

2011-01-01

Crow-AMSAA (CA) plots are used to model reliability growth. Use of CA plots has expanded into other areas, such as tracking events of interest to management, maintenance problems, and safety mishaps. Safety mishaps can often be successfully modeled using a Poisson probability distribution. CA plots show a Poisson process in log-log space. If the safety mishaps are a stable homogenous Poisson process, a linear fit to the points in a CA plot will have a slope of one. Slopes of greater than one indicate a nonhomogenous Poisson process, with increasing occurrence. Slopes of less than one indicate a nonhomogenous Poisson process, with decreasing occurrence. Changes in slope, known as "cusps," indicate a change in process, which could be an improvement or a degradation. After presenting the CA conceptual framework, examples are given of trending slips, trips and falls, and ergonomic incidents at NASA (from Agency-level data). Crow-AMSAA plotting is a robust tool for trending safety mishaps that can provide insight into safety performance over time.

Twentieth century bipolar seesaw of the Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chylek, Petr; Folland, Chris K.; Lesins, Glen; Dubey, Manvendra K.

2010-04-01

Understanding the phase relationship between climate changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions is essential for our understanding of the dynamics of the Earth's climate system. In this paper we show that the 20th century de-trended Arctic and Antarctic temperatures vary in anti-phase seesaw pattern - when the Arctic warms the Antarctica cools and visa versa. This is the first time that a bi-polar seesaw pattern has been identified in the 20th century Arctic and Antarctic temperature records. The Arctic (Antarctic) de-trended temperatures are highly correlated (anti-correlated) with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index suggesting the Atlantic Ocean as a possible link between the climate variability of the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Recent accelerated warming of the Arctic results from a positive reinforcement of the linear warming trend (due to an increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and other possible forcings) by the warming phase of the multidecadal climate variability (due to fluctuations of the Atlantic Ocean circulation).

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network.

PubMed

Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Gao, Shangce; Tang, Zheng

2017-01-01

With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient.

A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany.

PubMed

Kattenbach, Ralph; Schneidhofer, Thomas M; Lücke, Janine; Latzke, Markus; Loacker, Bernadette; Schramm, Florian; Mayrhofer, Wolfgang

2014-02-01

By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time.

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations

PubMed Central

Oliveira, Íris M.; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J.

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement (MageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement. PMID:28484413

Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations.

PubMed

Oliveira, Íris M; Taveira, Maria do Céu; Porfeli, Erik J

2017-01-01

Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls) from northern (69.5%) and central Portugal (30.5%) followed across four occasions of measurement ( M ageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50). Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement cubic trends. Additionally, the geographical location moderated the association between the average trend of career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement as well as tended to moderate the relation between the career variables and academic achievement quadratic trends. Future research could seek to explore the role of context in shaping the trajectories and linkages between career and academic progress with a more representative sample of participants from a broader array of geographical locations. This study advances extant literature by affirming the longitudinal relationship between the school and work domains in youth, which might sustain practices aimed at fostering students' career preparedness and academic achievement.

Trend analysis of the homogenized total ozone series of Arosa (Switzerland), 1926-1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Kegel, Rainer; Harris, Neil R. P.

1998-04-01

Total ozone measurements have been made at Arosa, Switzerland (47°N), from 1926 through the present day, forming the longest total ozone series in the world. The record has been recently homogenized. Ozone trends are calculated to be -(2.3±0.6)% per decade for annual means (larger losses are found in winter and spring, approximately -4% per decade for trends in January, February, and March) when a simple linear change from 1970 to 1996 is assumed. In addition, total ozone trends are calculated using multiple regression models involving combinations of explanatory variables for the 11-year solar cycle, local meteorological conditions (the Mount Säntis high-altitude temperature record), stratospheric aerosol loading from volcanoes, and stratospheric chlorine loading. When the terms for the solar cycle, the stratospheric aerosol loading and the high mountain temperature record were included, the annually averaged ozone trends were found to be -(1.9±0.6)% per decade. While a statistically significant relation is found between total ozone and indices of aerosol loadings of the stratosphere, the recent decrease in total ozone cannot be accounted for by the higher average aerosol content in the second half of the century. Finally, the decrease in ozone in the stratosphere is estimated to be approximately 30% larger than that found for total ozone, when a crude estimate of the increase in tropospheric ozone is included. The acceleration observed in total ozone trends between the 1970s and the 1980s over northern midlatitudes [e.g., Harris et al., 1997] might be partially attributed to the larger increase in tropospheric ozone in the 1970s.

Trends in popularity of some morphological traits of purebred dogs in Australia.

PubMed

Teng, Kendy T; McGreevy, Paul D; Toribio, Jenny-Ann L M L; Dhand, Navneet K

2016-01-01

The morphology of dogs can provide information about their predisposition to some disorders. For example, larger breeds are predisposed to hip dysplasia and many neoplastic diseases. Therefore, longitudinal trends in popularity of dog morphology can reveal potential disease pervasiveness in the future. There have been reports on the popularity of particular breeds and behavioural traits but trends in the morphological traits of preferred breeds have not been studied. This study investigated trends in the height, dog size and head shape (cephalic index) of Australian purebred dogs. One hundred eighty-one breeds derived from Australian National Kennel Council (ANKC) registration statistics from 1986 to 2013 were analysed. Weighted regression analyses were conducted to examine trends in the traits by using them as outcome variables, with year as the explanatory variable and numbers of registered dogs as weights. Linear regression investigated dog height and cephalic index (skull width/skull length), and multinomial logistic regression studied dog size. The total number of ANKC registration had decreased gradually from 95,792 in 1986 to 66,902 in 2013. Both weighted minimal height (p = 0.014) and weighted maximal height (p < 0.001) decreased significantly over time, and the weighted cephalic index increased significantly (p < 0.001). The odds of registration of medium and small breeds increased by 5.3 % and 4.2 %, respectively, relative to large breeds (p < 0.001) and by 12.1 % and 11.0 %, respectively, relative to giant breeds (p < 0.001) for each 5-year block of time. Compared to taller and larger breeds, shorter and smaller breeds have become relatively popular over time. Mean cephalic index has increased, which indicates that Australians have gradually favoured breeds with shorter and wider heads (brachycephalic). These significant trends indicate that the dog morphological traits reported here may potentially influence how people select companion dogs in Australia and provide valuable predictive information on the pervasiveness of diseases in dogs.

Carbon dioxide emissions and change in prevalence of obesity and diabetes in the United States: an ecological study.

PubMed

Zheutlin, Alexander R; Adar, Sara D; Park, Sung Kyun

2014-12-01

Recent studies suggest that increasing levels of the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), may influence weight gain and thus may play a role in rising trends in obesity and diabetes. We conducted an ecological study to examine the associations between CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and changes in the prevalence of obesity and diabetes in the United States. County-level data on CO2 emissions, prevalence of obesity and diagnosed diabetes, other sociodemographic factors and neighborhood characteristics related to urbanicity, and fine particles (PM2.5) between 2004 and 2008 were obtained from the Vulcan Project, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and American Community Survey. Linear mixed effect modeling of 3019 counties for the associations between average CO2 emissions and changes in diabetes and obesity prevalence between 2004 and 2008 was performed. The average obesity and diabetes prevalence increased between 2004 and 2008 by 3.65% (SD: 1.88%) and 1.65% (SD: 1.70%), respectively. A marginally significant positive association between CO2 emission and changes in obesity prevalence was found with adjustment for sociodemographic factors, indicators of urbanicity and spatial autocorrelation (p-trend=0.06). The association became weaker and nonsignificant with further adjustment for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.17). There was a significant positive association between CO2 emission and changes in diabetes prevalence before controlling for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.05) but the association became null after controlling for PM2.5 (p-trend=0.49), suggesting that PM2.5 is a critical confounder in the association between CO2 emission and changes in diabetes prevalence. This study does not support the hypothesis that CO2 emissions, a leading driver of climate change, may be linked to increasing trends in obesity and diabetes, though there was an indication of possible link between CO2 and obesity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in Female Breast Cancer by Age Group in the Chiang Mai Population

PubMed Central

Sripan, Patumrat; Sriplung, Hutcha; Pongnikorn, Donsuk; Virani, Shama; Bilheem, Surichai; Chaisaengkhaum, Udomlak; Maneesai, Puttachart; Waisri, Narate; Hanpragopsuk, Chirapong; Tansiri, Panrada; Khamsan, Varunee; Poungsombat, Malisa; Mawoot, Aumnart; Chitapanarux, Imjai

2017-01-01

Objectives: This study was conducted to determine incidence trends of female breast cancer according to age groups and to predict future change in Chiang Mai women through 2028. Method: Data were collected from all hospitals in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, from 1989 through 2013, and used to investigate effects of age, year of diagnosis (period) and year of birth (cohort) on female breast cancer incidences using an age-period-cohort model. This model features geometric cut trends to predict change by young (<40 years), middle-aged (40-59) and elderly (≥60) age groups. Result: Of 5, 417 female breast cancer patients with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range: 43 to 59 years), 15%, 61% and 24% were young, middle-aged and elderly, respectively. Seventy nine percent of cancer cases in this study were detected at advanced stage. The trend in stage classification showed an increase in percentage of early stage and a decrease in metastatic cancers. Linear trends for cohort and period were not found in young females but were observed in middle-aged and elderly groups. Age-standardized rates (ASR) can be expected to remain stable around 6.8 per 100,000 women-years in young females. In the other age groups, the ASR trends were calculated to increase and reach peaks in 2024 of 120.2 and 138.2 per 100,000 women-years, respectively. Conclusion: Cohort effects or generation-specific effects, such as life style factors and the year of diagnosis (period) might have impacted on increased incidence in women aged over 40 years but not those under 40 years. A budget should be provided for treatment facilities and strategies to detect early stage cancers. The cost effectiveness of screening measures i.e. mammographic screening may need to be reconsidered for women age over 40 years. PMID:28612595

New measurements of photospheric magnetic fields in late-type stars and emerging trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saar, S. H.; Linsky, J. L.

1986-01-01

The magnetic fields of late-type stars are measured using the method of Saar et al. (1986). The method includes radiative transfer effects and compensation for line blending; the photospheric magnetic field parameters are derived by comparing observed and theoretical line profiles using an LTE code that includes line saturation and full Zeeman pattern. The preliminary mean active region magnetic field strengths (B) and surface area coverages for 20 stars are discussed. It is observed that there is a trend of increasing B towards the cooler dwarfs stars, and the linear correlation between B and the equipartition value of the magnetic field strength suggests that the photospheric gas pressure determines the photospheric magnetic field strengths. A tendency toward larger filling factors at larger stellar angular velocities is also detected.

ERTS-1 imagery of eastern Africa: A first look at the geological structure of selected areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, P. A. (Principal Investigator)

1972-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Imagery of the African rift system resolves the major Cainozoic faults, zones of warping, and associated volcanism. It also clearly depicts the crystal grain of the Precambrian rocks where these are exposed. New structural features, or new properties of known features such as greater extent, continuity, and linearity are revealed by ERTS-1 imagery. This applies, for example, to the NE-SW fracture zones in Yemen, the Aswa mylonite zone at the northern end of the Western Rift, the Nandi fault of western Kenya, the linear faults of the Elgeyo escarpment in the Gregory Rift, and the hemibasins of warped Tertiary lavas on the Red Sea margin of Yemen, matching those of Ethiopian plateau-Afar margin. A tentative scheme is proposed, relating the effect on the pattern of Cainozoic faulting of the degree of obliquity to Precambrian structural trend. It is particularly noteworthy that, even where the Precambrian grain determines the rift faulting to be markedly oblique to the overall trend of the rift trough, for example, in central Lake Tanganyika, the width of the trough is not significantly increased. Some ground mapped lithological boundaries are obscure on ERTS-1 imagery.

A Temporal Association between Accumulated Petrol (Gasoline) Lead Emissions and Motor Neuron Disease in Australia.

PubMed

Laidlaw, Mark A S; Rowe, Dominic B; Ball, Andrew S; Mielke, Howard W

2015-12-19

The age standardised death rate from motor neuron disease (MND) has increased from 1.29 to 2.74 per 100,000, an increase of 112.4% between 1959 and 2013. It is clear that genetics could not have played a causal role in the increased rate of MND deaths over such a short time span. We postulate that environmental factors are responsible for this rate increase. We focus on lead additives in Australian petrol as a possible contributing environmental factor. The associations between historical petrol lead emissions and MND death trends in Australia between 1962 and 2013 were examined using linear regressions. Regression results indicate best fit correlations between a 20 year lag of petrol lead emissions and age-standardised female death rate (R² = 0.86, p = 4.88 × 10(-23)), male age standardised death rate (R² = 0.86, p = 9.4 × 10(-23)) and percent all cause death attributed to MND (R² = 0.98, p = 2.6 × 10(-44)). Legacy petrol lead emissions are associated with increased MND death trends in Australia. Further examination of the 20 year lag between exposure to petrol lead and the onset of MND is warranted.

Statistical significance of seasonal warming/cooling trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludescher, Josef; Bunde, Armin; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2017-04-01

The question whether a seasonal climate trend (e.g., the increase of summer temperatures in Antarctica in the last decades) is of anthropogenic or natural origin is of great importance for mitigation and adaption measures alike. The conventional significance analysis assumes that (i) the seasonal climate trends can be quantified by linear regression, (ii) the different seasonal records can be treated as independent records, and (iii) the persistence in each of these seasonal records can be characterized by short-term memory described by an autoregressive process of first order. Here we show that assumption ii is not valid, due to strong intraannual correlations by which different seasons are correlated. We also show that, even in the absence of correlations, for Gaussian white noise, the conventional analysis leads to a strong overestimation of the significance of the seasonal trends, because multiple testing has not been taken into account. In addition, when the data exhibit long-term memory (which is the case in most climate records), assumption iii leads to a further overestimation of the trend significance. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with the Holm-Bonferroni method, we demonstrate how to obtain reliable estimates of the significance of the seasonal climate trends in long-term correlated records. For an illustration, we apply our method to representative temperature records from West Antarctica, which is one of the fastest-warming places on Earth and belongs to the crucial tipping elements in the Earth system.

Trend Analysis Using Microcomputers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berger, Carl F.

A trend analysis statistical package and additional programs for the Apple microcomputer are presented. They illustrate strategies of data analysis suitable to the graphics and processing capabilities of the microcomputer. The programs analyze data sets using examples of: (1) analysis of variance with multiple linear regression; (2) exponential…

Investigation of the 16-year and 18-year ZTD Time Series Derived from GPS Data Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bałdysz, Zofia; Nykiel, Grzegorz; Figurski, Mariusz; Szafranek, Karolina; KroszczyńSki, Krzysztof

2015-08-01

The GPS system can play an important role in activities related to the monitoring of climate. Long time series, coherent strategy, and very high quality of tropospheric parameter Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) estimated on the basis of GPS data analysis allows to investigate its usefulness for climate research as a direct GPS product. This paper presents results of analysis of 16-year time series derived from EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) reprocessing performed by the Military University of Technology. For 58 stations Lomb-Scargle periodograms were performed in order to obtain information about the oscillations in ZTD time series. Seasonal components and linear trend were estimated using Least Square Estimation (LSE) and Mann—Kendall trend test was used to confirm the presence of a linear trend designated by LSE method. In order to verify the impact of the length of time series on trend value, comparison between 16 and 18 years were performed.

Ground Juniperus pinchotii and urea in supplements fed to Rambouillet ewe lambs: I. Feedlot growth traits, blood serum parameters, and fecal characteristics.

PubMed

Whitney, T R

2017-08-01

Ground woody products and urea are low-cost roughage and N sources. Rambouillet ewe lambs ( = 48, 6 lambs/treatment; initial BW = 42 kg ± 3.8) were used to evaluate effects of using ground (juniper) and urea in supplements on feedlot lamb growth traits, blood serum parameters, and fecal characteristics. In a randomized complete block design (40 d), lambs were individually fed an ad libitum basal sorghum-Sudangrass hay diet, which was fed separate from 1 of 8 supplemental diets (6 lambs/diet; 533 g of supplement/d, as-fed basis). Treatment structure was a 4 × 2 factorial: 4 concentrations of ground juniper (JN: 15%, 30%, 45%, or 60% of DM) and 2 concentrations of urea (UR: 1 or 3% of DM). Lamb growth traits were evaluated on d 0, 5, 12, 19, 26, 33, and 40; blood serum was evaluated on d 6 to 8, 20 to 22, and 34 (at h 3 and 6), and feces was evaluated on d 35. Compared to lambs fed all of the other treatments, lambs fed JN60UR1 or JN60UR3 had reduced supplement DMI (negative quadratic, = 0.007). Hay and total DMI were variable across day (JN × UR × day, < 0.04), but no linear or quadratic trends were detected ( > 0.10). A JN × day interaction was detected ( < 0.001) for lamb BW and the JN × day negative quadratic trend ( = 0.02) for BW was influenced by reduced ADG (linear decrease, < 0.001) of lambs fed JN60. Lambs supplemented with UR3 vs. UR1 tended ( = 0.06) to have reduced BW but had similar ( > 0.17) ADG and G:F. Lamb G:F fluctuated across day (JN × day, = 0.007), but the JN × day quadratic trend ( < 0.001) was mainly due to reduced G:F in lambs fed JN45 or JN60 diets. As the percentage of JN increased in the supplement, serum IGF-1 linearly decreased ( = 0.04), and serum urea N quadratically increased ( < 0.001). The UR × hour interaction ( < 0.001) for serum urea N resulted from a greater decline from 3 to 6 h after feeding in lambs supplemented with UR1 vs. UR3. Increasing JN concentration tended to quadratically increase ( = 0.09) fecal DM and linearly decrease ( = 0.002) fecal N, but an effect due to dietary UR was not detected ( > 0.34). Results indicated that daily supplement DMI was restricted only by using JN60. However, a 60% JN-based supplement will not make an effective rangeland supplement for growing ewe lambs, and using 3% UR should not be considered, especially since daily UR intake was not restricted enough to be considered safe.

Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickramagamage, P.

2016-08-01

This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

Trends in cooling degree-days for five locations in Croatia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cvitan, L.

2010-09-01

The cooling degree-days (CDD) and number of cooling days (CD) over the period 1901-2008 are analyzed at five stations that represent different climatic regions in Croatia. The stations under consideration are: Osijek in the southern lowland of Pannonian Plain, Zagreb - Grič at the furthest south-eastern edge of the Julian Alps, Gospić in highland - hinterland of the Dinaric Alps, Crikvenica on the north-eastern Adriatic coast and Hvar on the mid - Adriatic island with the same name. Calculation of CDDs and counting of CDs are performed for the 18° C, 21° C and 23° C temperature thresholds that represent daily mean air temperature. Daily mean temperature (M) is calculated by using daily temperatures measured at 7 a.m. (t7), 2 p.m. (t14) and 9 p.m. (t21), in the following way: M=(t7+t14+2t21)/4. Linear trends over the period 1901-2008 are determined for each month as well as for the whole year (annual trend). Statistical significances of the trends are tested using the non-parametric Mann - Kendal test. For the months with the greatest potential cooling demands - June, July and August, the increasing trend is detected for almost all analyzed values at five locations. Namely, only for the August CD (threshold 18° C) for Hvar area and for the June and August CDDs (threshold 23° C) for Gospić area are detected slightly decreasing trends. Most slightly decreasing trends are discovered for September for both parameters at Osijek, Zagreb and Gospić area. Annual trends in both parameters for all locations are increasing, except the annual Gospić CDD (threshold 23° C) trend that is slightly decreasing. According to the Mann - Kendal test neither of the annual trends in CDD and CD for three temperature thresholds are statistically significant at 0.05 significance level in Gospić and Osijek. On the contrary, all of the mentioned annual trends are significant in Zagreb and Crikvenica, and almost all in Hvar (except trends in CD for the 21° C and 23° C thresholds). Months with the significant trends in most of analyzed values are: May and June in Osijek, May, June and July in Zagreb, June in Gospić, June, July and August in Crikvenica and July in Hvar.

Obesity in Scotland: a persistent inequality.

PubMed

Tod, Elaine; Bromley, Catherine; Millard, Andrew D; Boyd, Allan; Mackie, Phil; McCartney, Gerry

2017-07-27

Obesity is a health problem in its own right and a risk factor for other conditions such as cardiovascular disease. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased in Scotland between 1995 and 2008 with socio-economic inequalities persisting in adults over time and increasing in children. This paper explores changes in the underlying distribution of body mass index (BMI) which is less well understood. Using data from the Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) between 1995 and 2014 for adults aged 18-64 years, we calculated population distributions for BMI for the population overall, and for age, sex and deprivation strata. We used SHeS data for children aged 2-15 years between 1998 and 2014, in addition to data from the Child Health Systems Programme (CHSP) collected from primary one (P1) children in participating local authorities, to describe the overall trends and to compare trends in inequalities by deprivation strata. Amongst adults, the BMI distribution shifted upwards, with a large proportion of the population gaining a small amount of weight between 1995 and 2008 before subsequently stabilising across the distribution. In men the prevalence of obesity showed a linear deprivation gradient in 1995 but over time obesity declined in the least deprived quintile while the remaining four quintiles converged (and stabilised). In contrast, a persistent and generally linear gradient is evident among women for most of the 1995-2014 period. For those aged 2-15 years, obesity increased between 1998 and 2014 for the most deprived 40% of children contrasted with stable trends for the least deprived. The surveillance data for P1 children in Scotland showed a persistent inequality between 2005/06 and 2014/15 though it was less clear if this is widening. The BMI distribution for adults increased between 1995 and 2008 with a large proportion of the population gaining a small amount of weight before stabilising across the distribution. Inequalities in obesity persist for adults (with different underlying patterns evident for men and women), and may be widening for children. Actions to reduce the obesogenic environment, including structural changes not dependent on individual agency, are urgently needed if the long-term health, social and inequality consequences of obesity are to be reduced.

Trends in breast, ovarian and cervical cancer incidence in Mumbai, India over a 30-year period, 1976–2005: an age–period–cohort analysis

PubMed Central

Dhillon, P K; Yeole, B B; Dikshit, R; Kurkure, A P; Bray, F

2011-01-01

Background: Demographic, socioeconomic and cultural changes in India have increased longevity, delayed childbearing, decreased parity and resulted in a more westernised lifestyle, contributing to the increasing burden of cancer, especially among women. Methods: We evaluated secular changes in the incidence of breast, cervical and ovarian cancer in Mumbai women aged 30–64 between 1976 and 2005. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated and presented by site and calendar period. An age–period–cohort (APC) analysis quantified recent time trends and the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was obtained from the drift parameter, expressing the linear time trend common to both calendar period and birth cohort. Results: Over the 30-year study period, the age-standardised rates significantly increased for breast cancer (EAPC: 1.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0, 1.3)), significantly decreased for cervical cancer (EAPC: −1.8% (95% CI: −2.0, −1.6)) and there was no statistically significant change for ovarian cancer (EAPC: 0.3% (95% CI: −0.1, 0.6)). For breast and cervical cancer, the best-fitting model was the APC model. Conclusions: The rates of breast, cervical and ovarian cancer remain low in comparison with western countries, and the divergent trends of breast (increasing) and cervical cancer (decreasing) in Mumbai were similar to those observed in several other Asian countries. The changing risk profile in successive generations – improved education, higher socioeconomic status, later age at marriage and at first child, and lower parity – may in combination partially explain the diverging generational changes in breast and cervical cancer in Mumbai in the last decades. PMID:21829198

Woody vegetation die off and regeneration in response to rainfall variability in the west African Sahel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brandt, Martin; Tappan, G. Gray; Aziz Diouf, Abdoul; Beye, Gora; Mbow, Cheikh; Fensholt, Rasmus

2017-01-01

The greening in the Senegalese Sahel has been linked to an increase in net primary productivity, with significant long-term trends being closely related to the woody strata. This study investigates woody plant growth and mortality within greening areas in the pastoral areas of Senegal, and how these dynamics are linked to species diversity, climate, soil and human management. We analyse woody cover dynamics by means of multi-temporal and multi-scale Earth Observation, satellite based rainfall and in situ data sets covering the period 1994 to 2015. We find that favourable conditions (forest reserves, low human population density, sufficient rainfall) led to a rapid growth of Combretaceae and Balanites aegyptiaca between 2000 and 2013 with an average increase of 4% woody cover. However, the increasing dominance and low drought resistance of drought prone species bears the risk of substantial woody cover losses following drought years. This was observed in 2014–2015, with a die off of Guiera senegalensis in most places of the study area. We show that woody cover and woody cover trends are closely related to mean annual rainfall, but no clear relationship with rainfall trends was found over the entire study period. The observed spatial and temporal variation contrasts with the simplified labels of “greening” or “degradation”. While in principal a low woody plant diversity negatively impacts regional resilience, the Sahelian system is showing signs of resilience at decadal time scales through widespread increases in woody cover and high regeneration rates after periodic droughts. We have reaffirmed that the woody cover in Sahel responds to its inherent climatic variability and does not follow a linear trend.

Cancer mortality in central Serbia.

PubMed

Markovic-Denic, Ljiljana; Cirkovic, Andia; Zivkovic, Snezana; Stanic, Danica; Skodric-Trifunovic, Vesna

2014-01-01

Cancer is the one of the leading cause of death worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine cancer mortality trends in the population of central Serbia in the period from 2002 to 2011. The descriptive epidemiological method was used. The mortality from all malignant tumors (code C00-C96 of the International Disease Classification) was registered. The source of mortality data was the published material of the Cancer Registry of Serbia. The source of population data was the census of 2002 and 2011 and the estimates for inter-census years. Non-standardized, age-adjusted and age-specific mortality rates were calculated. Age adjustment of mortality rates was performed by the direct method of standardization. Trend lines were estimated using linear regression. During 2002-2011, cancer caused about 20% of all deaths each year in central Serbia. More men (56.9%) than women (43.1%) died of cancer. The average mortality rate for men was 1.3 times higher compared to women. A significant trend of increase of the age-adjusted mortality rates was recorded both for males (p<0.001) and for females (p=0.02). Except gastric cancer, the age-adjusted mortality rates in men were significantly increased for lung cancer (p=0.02), colorectal cancer (p<0.05), prostate cancer (p=0.01) and pancreatic cancer (p=0.01). Age-adjusted mortality rates for breast cancer in females were remarkably increased (p=0.01), especially after 2007. In central Serbia during the period from 2002 to 2011, there was an increasing trend in mortality rates due to cancers in both sexes. Cancer mortality in males was 1.3-fold higher compared to females.

Socio-demographic, ecological factors and dengue infection trends in Australia.

PubMed

Akter, Rokeya; Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2017-01-01

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia. This study has explored the spatio-temporal trends of dengue and potential socio- demographic and ecological determinants in Australia. Data on dengue cases, socio-demographic, climatic and land use types for the period January 1999 to December 2010 were collected from Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, respectively. Descriptive and linear regression analyses were performed to observe the spatio-temporal trends of dengue, socio-demographic and ecological factors in Australia. A total of 5,853 dengue cases (both local and overseas acquired) were recorded across Australia between January 1999 and December 2010. Most the cases (53.0%) were reported from Queensland, followed by New South Wales (16.5%). Dengue outbreak was highest (54.2%) during 2008-2010. A highest percentage of overseas arrivals (29.9%), households having rainwater tanks (33.9%), Indigenous population (27.2%), separate houses (26.5%), terrace house types (26.9%) and economically advantage people (42.8%) were also observed during 2008-2010. Regression analyses demonstrate that there was an increasing trend of dengue incidence, potential socio-ecological factors such as overseas arrivals, number of households having rainwater tanks, housing types and land use types (e.g. intensive uses and production from dryland agriculture). Spatial variation of socio-demographic factors was also observed in this study. In near future, significant increase of temperature was also projected across Australia. The projected increased temperature as well as increased socio-ecological trend may pose a future threat to the local transmission of dengue in other parts of Australia if Aedes mosquitoes are being established. Therefore, upgraded mosquito and disease surveillance at different ports should be in place to reduce the chance of mosquitoes and dengue cases being imported into all over Australia.

Increase in antibiotic prescriptions in out-of-hours primary care in contrast to in-hours primary care prescriptions: service evaluation in a population of 600 000 patients

PubMed Central

Hayward, G. N.; Fisher, R. F. R.; Spence, G. T.; Lasserson, D. S.

2016-01-01

Objectives The objective of this study was to describe the frequency and nature of antibiotic prescriptions issued by a primary care out-of-hours (OOH) service and compare time trends in prescriptions between OOH and in-hours primary care. Methods We performed a retrospective audit of 496 931 patient contacts with the Oxfordshire OOH primary care service. Comparison of time trends in antibiotic prescriptions from OOH primary care and in-hours primary care for the same population was made using multiple linear regression models fitted to the monthly data for OOH prescriptions, OOH contacts and in-hours prescriptions between September 2010 and August 2014. Results Compared with the overall population contacting the OOH service, younger age, female sex and patients who were less deprived were independently correlated with an increased chance of a contact resulting in prescription of antibiotics. The majority of antibiotics were prescribed to patients contacting the service at weekends. Despite a reduction in patient contacts with the OOH service [an estimated decrease of 486.5 monthly contacts each year (95% CI −676.3 to −296.8), 5.0% of the average monthly contacts], antibiotic prescriptions from this service rose during the study period [increase of 37.1 monthly prescriptions each year (95% CI 10.6–63.7), 2.5% of the average monthly prescriptions]. A matching increase was not seen for in-hours antibiotic prescriptions; the difference between the year trends was significant (Z test, P = 0.002). Conclusions We have demonstrated trends in prescribing that could represent a partial displacement of antibiotic prescribing from in-hours to OOH primary care. The possibility that the trends we describe are evident nationally should be explored. PMID:27287234

Increase in antibiotic prescriptions in out-of-hours primary care in contrast to in-hours primary care prescriptions: service evaluation in a population of 600 000 patients.

PubMed

Hayward, G N; Fisher, R F R; Spence, G T; Lasserson, D S

2016-09-01

The objective of this study was to describe the frequency and nature of antibiotic prescriptions issued by a primary care out-of-hours (OOH) service and compare time trends in prescriptions between OOH and in-hours primary care. We performed a retrospective audit of 496 931 patient contacts with the Oxfordshire OOH primary care service. Comparison of time trends in antibiotic prescriptions from OOH primary care and in-hours primary care for the same population was made using multiple linear regression models fitted to the monthly data for OOH prescriptions, OOH contacts and in-hours prescriptions between September 2010 and August 2014. Compared with the overall population contacting the OOH service, younger age, female sex and patients who were less deprived were independently correlated with an increased chance of a contact resulting in prescription of antibiotics. The majority of antibiotics were prescribed to patients contacting the service at weekends. Despite a reduction in patient contacts with the OOH service [an estimated decrease of 486.5 monthly contacts each year (95% CI -676.3 to -296.8), 5.0% of the average monthly contacts], antibiotic prescriptions from this service rose during the study period [increase of 37.1 monthly prescriptions each year (95% CI 10.6-63.7), 2.5% of the average monthly prescriptions]. A matching increase was not seen for in-hours antibiotic prescriptions; the difference between the year trends was significant (Z test, P = 0.002). We have demonstrated trends in prescribing that could represent a partial displacement of antibiotic prescribing from in-hours to OOH primary care. The possibility that the trends we describe are evident nationally should be explored. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Dietary intake of antioxidant nutrients is associated with semen quality in young university students.

PubMed

Mínguez-Alarcón, Lidia; Mendiola, Jaime; López-Espín, José J; Sarabia-Cos, Laura; Vivero-Salmerón, Guillermo; Vioque, Jesús; Navarrete-Muñoz, Eva M; Torres-Cantero, Alberto M

2012-09-01

What are the associations between the dietary intake of antioxidant nutrients and semen parameters in young men? Our study suggests that some sperm parameters are sensitive to dietary intake of antioxidant nutrients. A few reports have suggested that some dietary factors might be related to semen quality. However, the relationship between the intake of antioxidant nutrients and semen quality in young men remains unexplored. In this cross-sectional study, 215 young men were included between October 2010 and November 2011. Healthy university students with complete dietary and semen quality data were analyzed. Dietary intake was recorded using a validated food frequency questionnaire. The associations between the energy-adjusted nutrient intake of antioxidants in quartiles and the semen volume, sperm concentration, sperm motility, sperm morphology, total sperm count and total motile sperm count were assessed using multivariate linear regression. Out of 240 students who contacted us, 223 (92.9%) were eligible to participate in this study, and 215 attended the clinical appointment. In the multivariate adjusted linear regression models, there was a positive association between dietary intakes of cryptoxanthin (P(trend) = 0.03), vitamin C (P(trend) = 0.04), lycopene (P(trend) = 0.03) and β-carotene (P(trend) = 0.04) and total motile sperm count. The semen volume increased with higher intakes of vitamin C (P(trend) = 0.04). Only one sample of semen was taken for each subject. However, there are indications that one semen sample may be sufficient to characterize the semen quality of the individuals in epidemiological studies. Bias due to measurement errors may also occur since there is no perfect method to assess diet. However, any bias due to measurement error would be non-differential and would reduce, not increase, the strength of the associations. Although selection bias in cross-sectional studies might not always be ruled out, our subjects were university student volunteers who were rewarded for their participation and the study was not advertised as a fertility study. Previous articles in this area have focused mainly on men attending fertility clinics, thus our study brings generalizability to young men of the general population with unknown or untested fertility. Some of our results are in agreement with the previously reported papers.

Repeated aerosol-vapor JP-8 jet fuel exposure affects neurobehavior and neurotransmitter levels in a rat model.

PubMed

Baldwin, Carol M; Figueredo, Aurelio J; Wright, Lynda S; Wong, Simon S; Witten, Mark L

2007-07-01

Four groups of Fischer Brown Norway hybrid rats were exposed for 5, 10, 15, or 20 d to aerosolized-vapor jet propulsion fuel 8 (JP-8) compared to freely moving (5 and 10-d exposures) or sham-confined controls (15 and 20-d exposures). Behavioral testing utilized the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Functional Observational Battery. Exploratory ethological factor analysis identified three salient factors (central nervous system [CNS] excitability, autonomic 1, and autonomic 2) for use in profiling JP-8 exposure in future studies. The factors were used as dependent variables in general linear modeling. Exposed animals were found to engage in more rearing and hyperaroused behavior compared to controls, replicating prior JP-8 exposure findings. Exposed animals also showed increasing but rapidly decelerating stool output (autonomic 1), and a significant increasing linear trend for urine output (autonomic 2). No significant trends were noted for either of the control groups for the autonomic factors. Rats from each of the groups for each of the time frames were randomly selected for tissue assay from seven brain regions for neurotransmitter levels. Hippocampal DOPAC was significantly elevated after 4-wk JP-8 exposure compared to both control groups, suggesting increased dopamine release and metabolism. Findings indicate that behavioral changes do not appear to manifest until wk 3 and 4 of exposure, suggesting the need for longitudinal studies to determine if these behaviors occur due to cumulative exposure, or due to behavioral sensitization related to repeated exposure to aerosolized-vapor JP-8.

Tropical Rainfall Variability on Interannual-to-Interdecadal/Longer-Time Scales Derived from the GPCP Monthly Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Curtis, Scott

2006-01-01

Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 26-year (1979-2004) GPCP monthly dataset (Adler et al., 2003). Our emphasis is to discriminate among variations due to ENSO, volcanic events, and possible long-term climate changes in the tropics. Although the global linear change of precipitation in the data set is near zero during the time period, an increase in tropical rainfall is noted, with a weaker decrease over northern hemisphere middle latitudes. Focusing on the tropics (25degS-25degN), the data set indicates an upward trend (0.06 mm/day/decade) and a downward trend (-0.02 mm/day/decade) over tropical ocean and land, respectively. This corresponds to an about 4.9% increase (ocean) and 1.6% decrease (land) during the entire 26-year time period. Techniques are applied to isolate and quantify variations due to ENSO and two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon, March 1982; Pinatubo, June 1991) in order to examine longer time-scale changes. The ENSO events generally do not impact the tropical total rainfall, but, of course, induce significant anomalies with opposite signs over tropical land and ocean. The impact of the two volcanic eruptions is estimated to be about a 5% reduction in tropical rainfall over both land and ocean. A modified data set (with ENSO and volcano effects removed) retains the same approximate linear change slopes, but with reduced variance, thereby increasing the confidence levels associated with the long-term rainfall changes in the tropics 2

Half-size me? How calorie and price information influence ordering on restaurant menus with both half and full entrée portion sizes.

PubMed

Haws, Kelly L; Liu, Peggy J

2016-02-01

Many restaurants are increasingly required to display calorie information on their menus. We present a study examining how consumers' food choices are affected by the presence of calorie information on restaurant menus. However, unlike prior research on this topic, we focus on the effect of calorie information on food choices made from a menu that contains both full size portions and half size portions of entrées. This different focus is important because many restaurants increasingly provide more than one portion size option per entrée. Additionally, we examine whether the impact of calorie information differs depending on whether full portions are cheaper per unit than half portions (non-linear pricing) or whether they have a similar per unit price (linear pricing). We find that when linear pricing is used, calorie information leads people to order fewer calories. This decrease occurs as people switch from unhealthy full sized portions to healthy full sized portions, not to unhealthy half sized portions. In contrast, when non-linear pricing is used, calorie information has no impact on calories selected. Considering the impact of calorie information on consumers' choices from menus with more than one entrée portion size option is increasingly important given restaurant and legislative trends, and the present research demonstrates that calorie information and pricing scheme may interact to affect choices from such menus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Studying the Transient Thermal Contact Conductance Between the Exhaust Valve and Its Seat Using the Inverse Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nezhad, Mohsen Motahari; Shojaeefard, Mohammad Hassan; Shahraki, Saeid

2016-02-01

In this study, the experiments aimed at analyzing thermally the exhaust valve in an air-cooled internal combustion engine and estimating the thermal contact conductance in fixed and periodic contacts. Due to the nature of internal combustion engines, the duration of contact between the valve and its seat is too short, and much time is needed to reach the quasi-steady state in the periodic contact between the exhaust valve and its seat. Using the methods of linear extrapolation and the inverse solution, the surface contact temperatures and the fixed and periodic thermal contact conductance were calculated. The results of linear extrapolation and inverse methods have similar trends, and based on the error analysis, they are accurate enough to estimate the thermal contact conductance. Moreover, due to the error analysis, a linear extrapolation method using inverse ratio is preferred. The effects of pressure, contact frequency, heat flux, and cooling air speed on thermal contact conductance have been investigated. The results show that by increasing the contact pressure the thermal contact conductance increases substantially. In addition, by increasing the engine speed the thermal contact conductance decreases. On the other hand, by boosting the air speed the thermal contact conductance increases, and by raising the heat flux the thermal contact conductance reduces. The average calculated error equals to 12.9 %.

Identification of geostructures of continental crust, particularly as they relate to mineral-resource evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gryc, G. (Principal Investigator); Lathram, E. H.

1972-01-01

The authors have identified the following significant results. As a precursor to the ERTS-1 investigation, the spatial relationship of geostructures seen on Nimbus IDCS photographs to the distribution of mineralized areas in Alaska and western Canada was analyzed to determine the possible metallogenic significance of the geostructures. In Canada, mercury and porphyry molybdenum deposits are closely associated with strong northwest-trending fault systems; the development of mineralized regions seems related to major crustal zones or fractures trending southwestward across the Cordillera from the Precambrian shield. In Alaska, comparison of the northeast- and northwest-trending set of possible crustal structures shown on the Nimbus photo, with the distribution of known mineral deposits suggests a similar relationship. The mineralized region of massive sulfides in Prince William Sound and upper Copper River areas and of porphyry coppers in the Nabesna area forms a broad northeast-trending belt possibly related to the Minto Arch on the Shield. The belt of metalliferous deposits in the western Alaska Range follows a comparable northeast trend. Mercury deposits, suggested by many to be fault-controlled, together with most tin and tungsten deposits, occupy a northeast-trending belt between the Bristol Bay-Mackenzie Bay linear and extensions of a linear along the lower Yukon River. This belt intersects the northwest-trending Canadian belt of similar deposits in the Fairbanks area.

Effect of Drug Sample Removal on Prescribing in a Family Practice Clinic

PubMed Central

Hartung, Daniel M.; Evans, David; Haxby, Dean G.; Kraemer, Dale F.; Andeen, Gabriel; Fagnan, Lyle J.

2010-01-01

PURPOSE Little is known about the impact of recent restrictions on pharmaceutical industry detailing and sampling on prescribing behavior, particularly within smaller, independent practices. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of a policy prohibiting prescription drug samples and pharmaceutical industry interaction on prescribing patterns in a rural family practice clinic in central Oregon. METHODS Segmented linear regression models were used to evaluate trends in prescribing using locally obtained pharmacy claims. Oregon Medicaid pharmacy claims were used to control for secular prescribing changes. Total and class-specific monthly trends in branded, promoted, and average prescription drug costs were analyzed 18 months before and after policy implementation. RESULTS Aggregate trends of brand name drug use did not change significantly after policy implementation. In aggregate, use of promoted agents decreased by 1.43% while nonpromoted branded agents increased by 3.04%. Branded drugs prescribed for respiratory disease declined significantly by 11.34% compared with a control group of prescribers. Relative to the control group, prescriptions of promoted cholesterol-lowering drugs and antidepressants were reduced by approximately 9.98% and 11.34%, respectively. The trend in average cost per prescription for lipid-lowering drugs was significantly reduced by $0.70 per prescription per month. Overall, average prescription drug costs increased by $5.18 immediately after policy implementation. CONCLUSIONS Restriction of pharmaceutical industry representatives and samples from a rural family practice clinic produced modest reductions in branded drug use that varied by class. Although aggregate average costs increased, prescriptions for branded and promoted lipid-lowering agents and antidepressants were reduced. PMID:20843881

Effect of drug sample removal on prescribing in a family practice clinic.

PubMed

Hartung, Daniel M; Evans, David; Haxby, Dean G; Kraemer, Dale F; Andeen, Gabriel; Fagnan, Lyle J

2010-01-01

Little is known about the impact of recent restrictions on pharmaceutical industry detailing and sampling on prescribing behavior, particularly within smaller, independent practices. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of a policy prohibiting prescription drug samples and pharmaceutical industry interaction on prescribing patterns in a rural family practice clinic in central Oregon. Segmented linear regression models were used to evaluate trends in prescribing using locally obtained pharmacy claims. Oregon Medicaid pharmacy claims were used to control for secular prescribing changes. Total and class-specific monthly trends in branded, promoted, and average prescription drug costs were analyzed 18 months before and after policy implementation. Aggregate trends of brand name drug use did not change significantly after policy implementation. In aggregate, use of promoted agents decreased by 1.43% while nonpromoted branded agents increased by 3.04%. Branded drugs prescribed for respiratory disease declined significantly by 11.34% compared with a control group of prescribers. Relative to the control group, prescriptions of promoted cholesterol-lowering drugs and antidepressants were reduced by approximately 9.98% and 11.34%, respectively. The trend in average cost per prescription for lipid-lowering drugs was significantly reduced by $0.70 per prescription per month. Overall, average prescription drug costs increased by $5.18 immediately after policy implementation. Restriction of pharmaceutical industry representatives and samples from a rural family practice clinic produced modest reductions in branded drug use that varied by class. Although aggregate average costs increased, prescriptions for branded and promoted lipid-lowering agents and antidepressants were reduced.

Trends in diabetes-related visits to US EDs from 1997 to 2007.

PubMed

Menchine, Michael D; Wiechmann, Warren; Peters, Anne L; Arora, Sanjay

2012-06-01

The aims of the study were to describe temporal trends in the number, proportion, and per capita use of diabetes-related emergency department (ED) visits and to examine any racial/ethnic disparity in ED use for diabetes-related reasons. We analyzed the ED portion of the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey from 1997 through 2007. Diabetes-related ED visits were identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes. Descriptive statistics were developed. Weighted linear and logistic regression models were used to determine significance of temporal trends, and multivariate logistic regression was used to examine racial/ethnic disparities. A total of 20.2 million (1.69%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.59%-1.78%) ED visits were diabetes-related during the study period. We observed significant increases in the number and proportion of diabetes-related ED visits. Overall, there was a 5.6% relative annual increase in the proportion of ED visits that were diabetes-related during the study period. However, the per capita ED use among the population with diabetes did not change over time (P>.05 for trend). On multivariate analysis, black race (odds ratio, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.7-2.0), Hispanic ethnicity (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.8), and advancing age were associated with significantly higher odds of having a diabetes-related visit. Despite a marked increase in number and proportion of diabetes-related ED visits during the study period, the per capita use of ED services for diabetes-related visits among the diabetic population remained stable. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Onabotulinum toxin A dosage trends over time for adductor spasmodic dysphonia: A 15-year experience.

PubMed

Tang, Christopher G; Novakovic, Daniel; Mor, Niv; Blitzer, Andrew

2016-03-01

Although onabotulinum neurotoxin A (BoNTA) has been used for over three decades for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia, no study has been performed to look at the trend of BoNTA dosages across time. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dosage trends to determine if the dosage necessary for voice improvement in patients increases over time. Charts were reviewed for patients with 15 years or more of experience. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine correlation coefficients and trends. Fifty-five patients receiving BoNTA injections by the senior author (a.b.) for over 15 years were evaluated. Thirty-nine patients (82% female) met inclusion criteria. Patients received injections over an average of 18.6 years ± 1.36 years, with the longest follow-up of 21.5 years. Of 39 patients, 16 (41%) had a negative correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) suggesting a decrease over time, whereas 23 (59%) had a positive correlation coefficient suggesting an increase over time. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.139 ± 0.534 and P < 0.05 in 19 patients and P > 0.05 in 20 patients. R(2) for all patients were less than 0.75. Onabotulinum neurotoxin A injection dosage trends vary depending on the individual over time. Overall, the dose range appears to be stable in the majority of patients, suggesting that tolerance does not play a significant part in dose variation over time. 4. Laryngoscope, 126:678-681, 2016. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Camera Traps on Wildlife Crossing Structures as a Tool in Gray Wolf (Canis lupus) Management - Five-Years Monitoring of Wolf Abundance Trends in Croatia

PubMed Central

Križan, Josip; Gužvica, Goran

2016-01-01

The conservation of gray wolf (Canis lupus) and its coexistence with humans presents a challenge and requires continuous monitoring and management efforts. One of the non-invasive methods that produces high-quality wolf monitoring datasets is camera trapping. We present a novel monitoring approach where camera traps are positioned on wildlife crossing structures that channel the animals, thereby increasing trapping success and increasing the cost-efficiency of the method. In this way we have followed abundance trends of five wolf packs whose home ranges are intersected by a motorway which spans throughout the wolf distribution range in Croatia. During the five-year monitoring of six green bridges we have recorded 28 250 camera-events, 132 with wolves. Four viaducts were monitored for two years, recording 4914 camera-events, 185 with wolves. We have detected a negative abundance trend of the monitored Croatian wolf packs since 2011, especially severe in the northern part of the study area. Further, we have pinpointed the legal cull as probable major negative influence on the wolf pack abundance trends (linear regression, r2 > 0.75, P < 0.05). Using the same approach we did not find evidence for a negative impact of wolves on the prey populations, both wild ungulates and livestock. We encourage strict protection of wolf in Croatia until there is more data proving population stability. In conclusion, quantitative methods, such as the one presented here, should be used as much as possible when assessing wolf abundance trends. PMID:27327498

Camera Traps on Wildlife Crossing Structures as a Tool in Gray Wolf (Canis lupus) Management - Five-Years Monitoring of Wolf Abundance Trends in Croatia.

PubMed

Šver, Lidija; Bielen, Ana; Križan, Josip; Gužvica, Goran

2016-01-01

The conservation of gray wolf (Canis lupus) and its coexistence with humans presents a challenge and requires continuous monitoring and management efforts. One of the non-invasive methods that produces high-quality wolf monitoring datasets is camera trapping. We present a novel monitoring approach where camera traps are positioned on wildlife crossing structures that channel the animals, thereby increasing trapping success and increasing the cost-efficiency of the method. In this way we have followed abundance trends of five wolf packs whose home ranges are intersected by a motorway which spans throughout the wolf distribution range in Croatia. During the five-year monitoring of six green bridges we have recorded 28 250 camera-events, 132 with wolves. Four viaducts were monitored for two years, recording 4914 camera-events, 185 with wolves. We have detected a negative abundance trend of the monitored Croatian wolf packs since 2011, especially severe in the northern part of the study area. Further, we have pinpointed the legal cull as probable major negative influence on the wolf pack abundance trends (linear regression, r2 > 0.75, P < 0.05). Using the same approach we did not find evidence for a negative impact of wolves on the prey populations, both wild ungulates and livestock. We encourage strict protection of wolf in Croatia until there is more data proving population stability. In conclusion, quantitative methods, such as the one presented here, should be used as much as possible when assessing wolf abundance trends.

Recent tree die-off has little effect on streamflow in contrast to expected increases from historical studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biederman, Joel A.; Somor, Andrew J.; Harpold, Adrian A.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Breshears, David D.; Troch, Peter A.; Gochis, David J.; Scott, Russell L.; Meddens, Arjan J. H.; Brooks, Paul D.

2015-12-01

Recent bark beetle epidemics have caused regional-scale tree mortality in many snowmelt-dominated headwater catchments of western North America. Initial expectations of increased streamflow have not been supported by observations, and the basin-scale response of annual streamflow is largely unknown. Here we quantified annual streamflow responses during the decade following tree die-off in eight infested catchments in the Colorado River headwaters and one nearby control catchment. We employed three alternative empirical methods: (i) double-mass comparison between impacted and control catchments, (ii) runoff ratio comparison before and after die-off, and (iii) time-trend analysis using climate-driven linear models. In contrast to streamflow increases predicted by historical paired catchment studies and recent modeling, we did not detect streamflow changes in most basins following die-off, while one basin consistently showed decreased streamflow. The three analysis methods produced generally consistent results, with time-trend analysis showing precipitation was the strongest predictor of streamflow variability (R2 = 74-96%). Time-trend analysis revealed post-die-off streamflow decreased in three catchments by 11-29%, with no change in the other five catchments. Although counter to initial expectations, these results are consistent with increased transpiration by surviving vegetation and the growing body of literature documenting increased snow sublimation and evaporation from the subcanopy following die-off in water-limited, snow-dominated forests. The observations presented here challenge the widespread expectation that streamflow will increase following beetle-induced forest die-off and highlight the need to better understand the processes driving hydrologic response to forest disturbance.

Epidemiology and costs of diabetes.

PubMed

Bruno, G; Landi, A

2011-01-01

The prevalence of diabetes is increasing worldwide, particularly in developing countries. In the next decades, India and China are expected to provide the greatest numbers of affected people, mainly owing to the increasing incidence of this disease in those countries. Regarding developed countries, such as in Europe and the United States, the increasing trend is mainly due to the prolonged survival of both the general and the diabetic populations. From an epidemiologic point of view, the first relevant point is that almost 80% of diabetes cases could be prevented just by avoiding overweight and obesity. The estimated attributable risk of excess body weight is extremely high; no other modifiable effect has such an impact on the health of the general population. The second relevant point is that the global trend of the disease shows a tendency to onset at a younger age. The third point is that in developed countries the prevalence of diabetes is increasing mainly among the elderly, who are responsible for the highest consumption of health care resources in absolute terms. Regarding type 1 diabetes, which represents one-tenth of affected individuals, both large geographic and temporal variations in disease incidence have been found, supporting the hypothesis of as yet unknown environmental determinants. The incidence is increasing in linear fashion, not supporting the hypothesis of younger age at onset as the main explanation for this trend. Because the prevalences of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes are increasing worldwide, they will produce a profound impact on overall health care costs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Breast Cancer in Lampang, a Province in Northern Thailand: Analysis of 1993-2012 Incidence Data and Future Trends.

PubMed

Lalitwongsa, Somkiat; Pongnikorn, Donsuk; Daoprasert, Karnchana; Sriplung, Hutcha; Bilheem, Surichai

2015-01-01

The recent epidemiologic transition in Thailand, with decreasing incidence of infectious diseases along with increasing rates of chronic conditions, including cancer, is a serious problem for the country. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females throughout Thailand. Lampang is a province in the upper part of Northern Thailand. A study was needed to identify the current burden, and the future trends of breast cancer in upper Northern Thai women. Here we used cancer incidence data from the Lampang Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the local incidence of breast cancer. Joinpoint analysis, age period cohort model and Nordpred package were used to investigate the incidences of breast cancer in the province from 1993 to 2012 and to project future trends from 2013 to 2030. Age-standardized incidence rates (world) of breast cancer in the upper parts of Northern Thailand increased from 16.7 to 26.3 cases per 100,000 female population which is equivalent to an annual percentage change of 2.0-2.8%, according to the method used. Linear drift effects played a role in shaping the increase of incidence. The three projection method suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence for women aged 50 and above, increasing at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50. The current early detection measures increase detection rates of early disease. Preparation of a budget for treatment facilities and human resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential.

Detecting trends in academic research from a citation network using network representation learning

PubMed Central

Mori, Junichiro; Ochi, Masanao; Sakata, Ichiro

2018-01-01

Several network features and information retrieval methods have been proposed to elucidate the structure of citation networks and to detect important nodes. However, it is difficult to retrieve information related to trends in an academic field and to detect cutting-edge areas from the citation network. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that detects the trend as the growth direction of a citation network using network representation learning(NRL). We presume that the linear growth of citation network in latent space obtained by NRL is the result of the iterative edge additional process of a citation network. On APS datasets and papers of some domains of the Web of Science, we confirm the existence of trends by observing that an academic field grows in a specific direction linearly in latent space. Next, we calculate each node’s degree of trend-following as an indicator called the intrinsic publication year (IPY). As a result, there is a correlation between the indicator and the number of future citations. Furthermore, a word frequently used in the abstracts of cutting-edge papers (high-IPY paper) is likely to be used often in future publications. These results confirm the validity of the detected trend for predicting citation network growth. PMID:29782521

Climate change, weather and road deaths.

PubMed

Robertson, Leon

2018-06-01

In 2015, a 7% increase in road deaths per population in the USA reversed the 35-year downward trend. Here I test the hypothesis that weather influenced the change in trend. I used linear regression to estimate the effect of temperature and precipitation on miles driven per capita in urbanizedurbanised areas of the USA during 2010. I matched date and county of death with temperature on that date and number of people exposed to that temperature to calculate the risk per persons exposed to specific temperatures. I employed logistic regression analysis of temperature, precipitation and other risk factors prevalent in 2014 to project expected deaths in 2015 among the 100 most populous counties in the USA. Comparison of actual and projected deaths provided an estimate of deaths expected without the temperature increase. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Dynamical amplification of Arctic and global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Bobylev, Leonid; Gnatiuk, Natalia; Urazgildeeva, Aleksandra

2015-04-01

The Arctic is coupled with global climate system by the atmosphere and ocean circulation that provides a major contribution to the Arctic energy budget. Therefore increase of meridional heat transport under global warming can impact on its Arctic amplification. Contribution of heat transport to the recent warming in the Arctic, Northern Hemisphere and the globe are estimated on base of reanalysis data, global climate model data and proposed special index. It is shown that significant part of linear trend during last four decades in average surface air temperature in these areas can be attributed to dynamical amplification. This attribution keeps until 400 mb height with progressive decreasing. The Arctic warming is amplified also due to an increase of humidity and cloudiness in the Arctic atmosphere that follow meridional transport gain. From October to January the Arctic warming trends are amplified as a result of ice edge retreat from the Siberian and Alaska coast and the heating of expanded volume of sea water. This investigation is supported with RFBR project 15-05-03512.

Cross-conditional entropy and coherence analysis of pharmaco-EEG changes induced by alprazolam.

PubMed

Alonso, J F; Mañanas, M A; Romero, S; Rojas-Martínez, M; Riba, J

2012-06-01

Quantitative analysis of electroencephalographic signals (EEG) and their interpretation constitute a helpful tool in the assessment of the bioavailability of psychoactive drugs in the brain. Furthermore, psychotropic drug groups have typical signatures which relate biochemical mechanisms with specific EEG changes. To analyze the pharmacological effect of a dose of alprazolam on the connectivity of the brain during wakefulness by means of linear and nonlinear approaches. EEG signals were recorded after alprazolam administration in a placebo-controlled crossover clinical trial. Nonlinear couplings assessed by means of corrected cross-conditional entropy were compared to linear couplings measured with the classical magnitude squared coherence. Linear variables evidenced a statistically significant drug-induced decrease, whereas nonlinear variables showed significant increases. All changes were highly correlated to drug plasma concentrations. The spatial distribution of the observed connectivity changes clearly differed from a previous study: changes before and after the maximum drug effect were mainly observed over the anterior half of the scalp. Additionally, a new variable with very low computational cost was defined to evaluate nonlinear coupling. This is particularly interesting when all pairs of EEG channels are assessed as in this study. Results showed that alprazolam induced changes in terms of uncoupling between regions of the scalp, with opposite trends depending on the variables: decrease in linear ones and increase in nonlinear features. Maps provided consistent information about the way brain changed in terms of connectivity being definitely necessary to evaluate separately linear and nonlinear interactions.

Alcohol Availability and Intimate Partner Violence Among US Couples

PubMed Central

McKinney, Christy M.; Caetano, Raul; Harris, Theodore Robert; Ebama, Malembe S.

2008-01-01

Objectives We examined the relation between alcohol outlet density (the number of alcohol outlets per capita by zip code) and male-to-female partner violence (MFPV) or female-to-male partner violence (FMPV). We also investigated whether binge drinking or the presence of alcohol-related problems altered the relationship between alcohol outlet density and MFPV or FMPV. Methods We linked individual and couple sociodemographic and behavioral data from a 1995 national population-based sample of 1,597 couples to alcohol outlet data and 1990 US Census sociodemographic information. We used logistic regression for survey data to estimate unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios between alcohol outlet density and MFPV or FMPV along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and p-values. We used a design-based Wald test to derive a p-value for multiplicative interaction to assess the role of binge drinking and alcohol-related problems. Results In adjusted analysis, an increase of one alcohol outlet per 10,000 persons was associated with a 1.03-fold increased risk of MFPV (p-value for linear trend = 0.01) and a 1.011-fold increased risk of FMPV (p-value for linear trend = 0.48). An increase of 10 alcohol outlets per 10,000 persons was associated with 34% and 12% increased risk of MFPV and FMPV respectively, though the CI for the association with FMPV was compatible with no increased risk. The relationship between alcohol outlet density and MFPV was stronger among couples reporting alcohol-related problems than those reporting no problems (p-value for multiplicative interaction = 0.01). Conclusions We found that as alcohol outlet density increases so does the risk of MFPV and that this relationship may differ for couples who do and do not report alcohol-related problems. Given that MFPV accounts for the majority of injuries related to intimate partner violence, policy makers may wish to carefully consider the potential benefit of limiting alcohol outlet density to reduce MFPV and its adverse consequences. PMID:18976345

Alcohol availability and intimate partner violence among US couples.

PubMed

McKinney, Christy M; Caetano, Raul; Harris, Theodore Robert; Ebama, Malembe S

2009-01-01

We examined the relation between alcohol outlet density (the number of alcohol outlets per capita by zip code) and male-to-female partner violence (MFPV) or female-to-male partner violence (FMPV). We also investigated whether binge drinking or the presence of alcohol-related problems altered the relationship between alcohol outlet density and MFPV or FMPV. We linked individual and couple sociodemographic and behavioral data from a 1995 national population-based sample of 1,597 couples to alcohol outlet data and 1990 US Census sociodemographic information. We used logistic regression for survey data to estimate unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios between alcohol outlet density and MFPV or FMPV along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and p-values. We used a design-based Wald test to derive a p-value for multiplicative interaction to assess the role of binge drinking and alcohol-related problems. In adjusted analysis, an increase of one alcohol outlet per 10,000 persons was associated with a 1.03-fold increased risk of MFPV (p-value for linear trend = 0.01) and a 1.011-fold increased risk of FMPV (p-value for linear trend = 0.48). An increase of 10 alcohol outlets per 10,000 persons was associated with 34% and 12% increased risk of MFPV and FMPV respectively, though the CI for the association with FMPV was compatible with no increased risk. The relationship between alcohol outlet density and MFPV was stronger among couples reporting alcohol-related problems than those reporting no problems (p-value for multiplicative interaction = 0.01). We found that as alcohol outlet density increases so does the risk of MFPV and that this relationship may differ for couples who do and do not report alcohol-related problems. Given that MFPV accounts for the majority of injuries related to intimate partner violence, policy makers may wish to carefully consider the potential benefit of limiting alcohol outlet density to reduce MFPV and its adverse consequences.

Albuminuria and masked uncontrolled hypertension in chronic kidney disease.

PubMed

Agarwal, Rajiv

2017-12-01

Masked uncontrolled hypertension (MUCH) is associated with greater target organ damage such as left ventricular hypertrophy, increased arterial stiffness and albuminuria. Whether MUCH independently associates with greater cardiovascular end-organ damage or kidney damage is unclear. The objective of this study was to assess the strength of the relationship of MUCH (awake ambulatory blood pressure ≥135/85 mmHg and clinic blood pressure <140/90 mmHg) with target organ damage. In a cross-sectional study at a veterans' administration medical center, clinically normotensive veterans without chronic kidney disease (CKD) (n = 29) and 287 patients with CKD and controlled hypertension (CH, n = 193), MUCH (n = 67) and uncontrolled hypertension (UCH, n = 27) had evaluation of target organ damage. Target organ damage was measured by echocardiography [left ventricular mass index (LVMI)], arterial ultrasonography [aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV)] and 24-h urine collection [albuminuria (urine albumin to creatinine ratio)] in all participants. Compared to that of controls, LVMI was higher by 21.8 g/m2 (CI, 4.0-39.7 g/m2) in CH, 27.9 (CI, 8-47.8) in MUCH and 39.5 (CI, 15.7-63.2) in UCH (P < 0.01 for group differences, P < 0.01 for linear trend). Although differences persisted after adjustment for age, sex and race, they lost significance after adjustments for cardiovascular risk factors and their treatment. Compared to that of controls, PWV was different among CH, MUCH and UCH (P = 0.04 for group differences, P = 0.02 for linear trend). However, differences lost significance after adjustments for age, sex and race. Compared to that of controls, log2 UACR was higher by 2.40 mg/mg (CI, 1.28-3.52) in CH, 4.94 (CI, 3.70-6.18) in MUCH and 6.01 (CI, 4.49-7.53) in UCH (P < 0.0001 for group difference, P < 0.0001 for linear trend). Differences persisted after adjustment for age, sex and race, cardiovascular risk factors and their treatment and cardiovascular disease (P < 0.0001 for group difference, P < 0.0001 for linear trend). MUCH is more strongly related to albuminuria compared with cardiovascular damage as assessed by left ventricular mass and PWV. A graded and an independent relationship of blood pressure classification status with albuminuria is consistent with the hypothesis that renal mechanisms may be more important than cardiovascular disease in mediating the pathogenesis of MUCH. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA 2016. This work is written by a US Government employee and is in the public domain in the US.

A reassessment of the Archean-Mesoproterozoic tectonic development of the southeastern Chhattisgarh Basin, Central India through detailed aeromagnetic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sridhar, M.; Ramesh Babu, V.; Markandeyulu, A.; Raju, B. V. S. N.; Chaturvedi, A. K.; Roy, M. K.

2017-08-01

We constrained the geological framework over polydeformed Paleoproterozoic Sonakhan Greenstone Belt and addressed the tectonic evolution of Singhora basin in the fringes of Bastar Craton, central India by utilizing aeromagnetic data interpretation, 2.5D forward modelling and 3D magnetic susceptibility inversions. The Sonakhan Greenstone Belt exposes volcano-sedimentary sequences of the Sonakhan Group within NNW-SSE to NW-SE trending linear belts surrounded by granite gneisses, which are unconformably overlain by sedimentary rocks of Chhattisgarh Basin. The orientations of aeromagnetic anomalies are coincident with geological trends and appear to correlate with lithology and geologic structure. Regional magnetic anomalies and lineaments reveal both NNW-SSE and NE-SW trends. Prominent E-W trending linear, high amplitude magnetic anomalies are interpreted as the Trans-Chhattisgarh Aeromagnetic Lineament (TCAL). NW-SE trending aeromagnetic signatures related to Sonakhan Greenstone Belt extends below the Singhora sedimentary rocks and forms the basement in the west. The analysis suggests that TCAL is a block fault with northern block down-thrown and affected the basement rocks comprising the Sonakhan Greenstone Belt and Samblapur Granitoids. The episode of faulting represented by the TCAL is pre-Singhora sedimentation and played a vital role in basin evolution. The basement configuration image generated by estimates of depth to magnetic basement suggests a complex pattern of NNE-SSW to NE-SW trending depressions separated by a linear N-S trending basement ridge. It is inferred from the 3D magnetic susceptibility inversion that the thickness of sediments is more towards the eastern basin margin and the N-S ridge is a manifestation of post sedimentary faulting. Results of 2.5D modelling of a WNW-ESE profile across the Singhora Basin combined with results from 3D inversion suggest suggests the basin subsidence was controlled by NE-SW trending regional faults in an active system. The basin geometry evolved by E-W block faulting overprinted by NE-SW trending pre- to syn-depositional normal faults generating NE-SW depression, which are affected by N-S trend post-sedimentary faulting. Though the present work relates the basin evolution with the initiation of rift basin, it warrants further work to establish the deformation within the basin pertaining to the proximal thrust and uplift along the craton fringe.

Opposing seasonal trends for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and PM10: Health risk and sources in southwest Mexico City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amador-Muñoz, Omar; Bazán-Torija, S.; Villa-Ferreira, S. A.; Villalobos-Pietrini, Rafael; Bravo-Cabrera, José Luis; Munive-Colín, Zenaida; Hernández-Mena, Leonel; Saldarriaga-Noreña, H.; Murillo-Tovar, M. A.

2013-03-01

This study reports the measurement of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in airborne particles ≤ 10 μm (PM10) during four years. Seasonal variation was observed for PM10 and PAH in southwest Mexico City, with major mass concentrations during the dry season (November-April). A non linear decreasing trend of PM10 was observed during this period, while a linear increase (in the four years) was obtained for benzo[a]pyrene (88 pg m- 3), phenanthrene (29 pg m- 3), fluoranthene (88 pg m- 3), and benzo[ghi]perylene (438 pg m- 3). Coronene also showed an increasing trend but it was nonlinear. This suggests that air control strategies implemented by the government contributed to maintaining PM10 under the 24 h maximum limit and resulted in a decreasing trend during this period. However, these strategies did not result in controlling some organic constituents with mutagenic and/or carcinogenic properties as it is the case of benzo[a]pyrene. The annual average of this PAH exceeded the UK recommendation. It was estimated a median (10th-90th) lifetime health risk of 7.6 (3.4-17.2) additional cases of cancer per 10 million people in this zone exists and the health risk of PAH is almost three times greater in dry seasons than it is in rainy seasons. Specific humidity, temperature and wind speed acted as cleaners for PM10 and PAH from the atmosphere. PAH diagnostic ratios and correlation and principal component analyses suggest incomplete combustion from gasoline and diesel engines as the main contributor to PAH found in southwest Mexico City, where factor 1 grouped all PAH emitted from gasoline engines during first three years. During last year, factor 1 only grouped PAH markers of diesel engines. This suggests a change of emission amounts between gasoline and diesel combustion sources or a contribution of other source(s) which changed the PAH profiles. During four years retene was always separated from factors which grouped the rest of PAH, due to its wood combustion origin.

Ion temperature gradient driven transport in tokamaks with square shaping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joiner, N.; Dorland, W.

2010-06-15

Advanced tokamak schemes which may offer significant improvement to plasma confinement on the usual large aspect ratio Dee-shaped flux surface configuration are of great interest to the fusion community. One possibility is to introduce square shaping to the flux surfaces. The gyrokinetic code GS2[Kotschenreuther et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 88, 128 (1996)] is used to study linear stability and the resulting nonlinear thermal transport of the ion temperature gradient driven (ITG) mode in tokamak equilibria with square shaping. The maximum linear growth rate of ITG modes is increased by negative squareness (diamond shaping) and reduced by positive values (square shaping).more » The dependence of thermal transport produced by saturated ITG instabilities on squareness is not as clear. The overall trend follows that of the linear instability, heat and particle fluxes increase with negative squareness and decrease with positive squareness. This is contradictory to recent experimental results [Holcomb et al., Phys. Plasmas 16, 056116 (2009)] which show a reduction in transport with negative squareness. This may be reconciled as a reduction in transport (consistent with the experiment) is observed at small negative values of the squareness parameter.« less

Trends in surface solar radiation in Spain since the 1980s: the role of the changes in the radiative effects of aerosols and clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Mateos, David; Wild, Martin; Calbó, Josep; Antón, Manuel; Enriquez-Alonso, Aaron; Sanchez-Romero, Alex

2014-05-01

There is a growing interest in the study of decadal variations in surface solar radiation, although the analyses of long-term time series in some areas with major gaps in observations, such as in Spain, are still pending. In the first part of this work, a previously published surface solar radiation dataset in Spain is described (for more details, see Sanchez-Lorenzo et al., 2013) based on the longest series with ground-based records of global and diffuse solar radiation, most of them starting in the early 1980s and ending in 2012. Particular emphasis is placed upon the homogenization of this dataset in order to ensure the reliability of the trends. The linear trend in the mean annual series of global solar radiation shows a significant increase since 1981 of 4.0 Wm-2 (or 2.4 %) per decade. These results are in line with the increase of global solar radiation (i.e. brightening period) reported at many worldwide observation sites (Wild, 2009). In addition, the annual mean diffuse solar radiation series shows a significant decrease during the last three decades, but it is disturbed by strong increases in 1983 and 1991-1992, which might reflect the effects of the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions as a result of enhanced scattering of the aerosols emitted during these large volcanic eruptions. As clouds and aerosols are the main sources of uncertainty in the determination of the energy balance of the Earth, there is a growing interest in the evaluation of their radiative effects and their impact on the decadal variability of the surface solar radiation. Hence, in the second part of this work, the changes of the combined radiative effects of clouds and aerosols in Spain since the 1980s are investigated (for more details, see Mateos et al., 2013). In particular, the global solar radiation data above mentioned and radiative transfer simulations fed with reanalysis data of ozone, water vapour and surface albedo, are used to evaluate the cloud and aerosol radiative effect (CARE) during the 1985-2010 period. The results show a significant decrease of CARE over Spain. Overall, the linear trend of the mean annual CARE series over Spain is 3.1 Wm-2 (or 5%) per decade, in line with those trends obtained for global solar radiation during the same period. Moreover, the radiative effects of water vapour and ozone have no significant trends during the study period. In conclusion, our study in Spain supports the hypothesis usually considered to explain the widespread surface solar radiation trends by changes in aerosols and clouds (Wild, 2009). Other atmospheric variables, such as ozone column or atmospheric water vapour play a minor, almost negligible, role on these trends. References: Mateos, D., Antón, M.,Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., Calbó, J., and Wild, M. (2013): Long-term changes in the radiative effects of aerosols and clouds in a mid-latitude region (1985-2010), Global and Planetary Change, 111, 288-295. Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., Calbó, J., and Wild, M. (2013): Global and diffuse solar radiation in Spain: building a homogeneous dataset and assessing their trends, Global and Planetary Change, 100, 343- 352. Wild, M. (2009): Global dimming and brightening: a review, Journal of Geophysical Research 114, D00D16.http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011470.

Simultaneous analysis and design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haftka, R. T.

1984-01-01

Optimization techniques are increasingly being used for performing nonlinear structural analysis. The development of element by element (EBE) preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) techniques is expected to extend this trend to linear analysis. Under these circumstances the structural design problem can be viewed as a nested optimization problem. There are computational benefits to treating this nested problem as a large single optimization problem. The response variables (such as displacements) and the structural parameters are all treated as design variables in a unified formulation which performs simultaneously the design and analysis. Two examples are used for demonstration. A seventy-two bar truss is optimized subject to linear stress constraints and a wing box structure is optimized subject to nonlinear collapse constraints. Both examples show substantial computational savings with the unified approach as compared to the traditional nested approach.

Recent growth of conifer species of western North America: Assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, D.; Hessl, Amy E.; Peterson, D.L.

2001-01-01

We explored spatial patterns of low-frequency variability in radial tree growth among western North American conifer species and identified predictors of the variability in these patterns. Using 185 sites from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank, each of which contained 10a??60 raw ring-width series, we rebuilt two chronologies for each site, using two conservative methods designed to retain any low-frequency variability associated with recent environmental change. We used factor analysis to identify regional low-frequency patterns in site chronologies and estimated the slope of the growth trend since 1850 at each site from a combination of linear regression and time-series techniques. This slope was the response variable in a regression-tree model to predict the effects of environmental gradients and species-level differences on growth trends. Growth patterns at 27 sites from the American Southwest were consistent with quasi-periodic patterns of drought. Either 12 or 32 of the 185 sites demonstrated patterns of increasing growth between 1850 and 1980 A.D., depending on the standardization technique used. Pronounced growth increases were associated with high-elevation sites (above 3000 m) and high-latitude sites in maritime climates. Future research focused on these high-elevation and high-latitude sites should address the precise mechanisms responsible for increased 20th century growth.

An investigation of trends in precious metal and copper content of RAM modules in WEEE: Implications for long term recycling potential.

PubMed

Charles, Rhys Gareth; Douglas, Peter; Hallin, Ingrid Liv; Matthews, Ian; Liversage, Gareth

2017-02-01

Precious metal (PM) and copper content of dynamic-RAM modules placed on the market during 1991-2008 has been analysed by AAS following comminution and acid digestion. Linear regression analysis of compositional data ordered according to sample chronology was used to identify historic temporal trends in module composition resulting from changes in manufacturing practices, and to project future trends for use in more accurate assessment of future recycling potential. DRAM was found to be 'high grade' waste with: stable levels of gold and silver over time; 80% reduction in palladium content during 1991-2008; and 0.23g/module/year increase in copper content with a 75% projected increase from 2008 by 2020. The accuracy of future recycling potential projections for WEEE using current methods based on static compositional data from current devices is questionable due to likely changes in future device composition. The impact on recycling potential projections of waste laptops, smart phones, cell phones and tablets arising in Europe in 2020 resulting from a 75% increase in copper content is considered against existing projections using static compositional data. The results highlight that failing to consider temporal variations in PM content may result in significant discrepancies between projections and future recycling potential. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Pacing patterns in competitive rowing adopted in different race categories.

PubMed

Muehlbauer, Thomas; Melges, Thomas

2011-05-01

Data from 7 World Rowing Championships between 2001 and 2009 were analyzed to determine the time distribution during 2,000-m heavyweight races (from 500-m quarter times) and to assess whether pacing patterns differ between boat classes (single vs. team boats) and qualifying rounds (heats vs. finals). Analyses of variance with repeated measures on quarter times revealed that pacing patterns in heat races were better described (i.e., higher amount of variance explained) by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68) but followed a quadratic trend line (parabolic-shaped pattern) during finals (women: η² = 0.81, men: η² = 0.60). Not using a spurt at the end of the heat races may indicate an attempt to conserve energy for subsequent rounds or reflect reduced effort made by losing crews or both aspects. In single boats, the pacing pattern was better represented by a linear trend line with a positive slope (women: η² = 0.76, men: η² = 0.68), but the amount of variance explained was virtually the same for both the linear and the quadratic trend component in team boats. The absence of a final spurt in single boat races suggests that the physiological status of the athlete plays an important role to control the timing and rate of decline in rowing speed.

Shifting characteristics of ecstasy users ages 12-34 in the United States, 2007-2014.

PubMed

Palamar, Joseph J; Mauro, Pia M; Han, Benjamin H; Martins, Silvia S

2017-12-01

Ecstasy/MDMA has been one of the most prevalent party drugs for decades, and powder ecstasy recently increased in popularity. We examined trends in use to determine who to best target for prevention and harm reduction. Secondary analysis of the 2007-2014 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, a repeated cross-sectional, nationally representative probability sample, was conducted. Linear trends in past-year ecstasy use and trends in demographic and other past-year substance use characteristics among ecstasy users were examined among participants ages 12-34 (N=332,560). Past-year prevalence of ecstasy use was stable across years at 2% (P=0.693). Over time, the proportion of ecstasy users with a college degree increased from 11.5% in 2007/08 to 24.5% in 2013/14 (P<0.001). The proportion of users who were age 12-17 decreased, as did proportions of users who are non-Hispanic black, and reported income <$20,000/year (Ps<0.001). Prevalence of past-year use of marijuana, LSD, ketamine, and DMT/AMT/Foxy increased among ecstasy users (Ps<0.05); DMT/AMT/Foxy use increased more than four-fold from 2.1% in 2007/08 to 8.7% in 2013/14. Perception of great risk associated with LSD use decreased among users and ease of obtaining LSD increased (Ps<0.05). Past-year use of 5 or more other substances also increased over time (P<0.05). Ecstasy use in the US appears to be increasing among those with college degrees and use of other substances among ecstasy users is growing-particularly use of otherwise rare substances such as tryptamines. Results inform prevention and harm reduction strategies in this increasingly shifting group of ecstasy users. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trends in hip fracture-related mortality in Texas, 1990-2007.

PubMed

Orces, Carlos H; Alamgir, Abul H

2011-07-01

There are limited data about trends in hip fracture-related mortality. In this study, we examined temporal trends in hip fracture mortality rates among persons aged 50 years or older in Texas between 1990 and 2007. Hip fracture-related mortality was defined as a death on the multiple cause of death record for which hip fracture was listed as a contributing cause. Population estimates for Texas were used as the denominator to calculate mortality rates per 100,000 persons. The joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify points where a statistically significant change occurred in the linear slope of the rates. A total of 14,350 death certificates listed hip fracture as a contributing cause of death. Hip fracture rates decreased predominantly among men by 0.8% (95% CI, -1.5 to -0.1) per year. Conversely, age-adjusted rates among women increased by 0.3% (95% CI, -0.4 to 1.0) per year. By race/ethnicity, hip fracture mortality rates increased annually 2.2% (95% CI, -0.1 to 4.4) among blacks, whereas the rates among whites and Hispanics remained steady. Moreover, the proportion of death records that listed nursing homes and residence as a place of death increased by 2.2% (95% CI, 1.6 to 2.9) and 8.7% (95% CI, 6.3 to 11.0) per year, respectively. Hip fracture mortality rates decreased predominantly among men in Texas during the study period. Increasing hip fracture mortality rates among blacks and nursing home residents merit further research.

Trends in Back-White Differentials in Dietary Intakes of U.S. Adults, 1971–2002

PubMed Central

Kant, Ashima K; Graubard, Barry I; Kumanyika, Shiriki K

2007-01-01

Background Disparities in the health status of blacks and whites have persisted despite considerable gains in improved health of the U.S. population. Tracking changes in black-white differentials in dietary attributes over time may help in understanding the contribution of diet to these disparities. Methods Data were used from four National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys conducted between 1971 and 2002 for trends in self-reported intakes of energy, macronutrients, micronutrients, fruits and vegetables, and the energy density of foods, among U.S. non-Hispanic black (n = 7099) and white (n = 23,314) men and women aged 25–74 years. Logistic and linear regression methods were used to adjust for multiple covariates and survey design. Results Energy intake, amount of food, and carbohydrate energy increased, whereas percentage of energy from protein, fat, and saturated fat decreased over time in all race-gender groups (p <0.001). In whites and in black women energy-density increased (p <0.001) in parallel to increases in obesity prevalence. In all surveys, black men and women reported lower intakes of vegetables, potassium, and calcium (p <0.001) than their white counterparts. In men, the race differential in calcium intake increased across surveys (p = 0.004). Conclusions Dietary intake trends in blacks and whites from 1971–2002 were similar—suggesting that previously identified dietary risk factors that differentially affect black Americans have not improved in a relative sense. PMID:17383557

Trends and Solar Cycle Effects in Temperature Versus Altitude From the Halogen Occultation Experiment for the Mesosphere and Upper Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2009-01-01

Fourteen-year time series of mesospheric and upper stratospheric temperatures from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) are analyzed and reported. The data have been binned according to ten-degree wide latitude zones from 40S to 40N and at 10 altitudes from 43 to 80 km-a total of 90 separate time series. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis techniques have been applied to those time series. This study focuses on resolving their 11-yr solar cycle (or SC-like) responses and their linear trend terms. Findings for T(z) from HALOE are compared directly with published results from ground-based Rayleigh lidar and rocketsonde measurements. SC-like responses from HALOE compare well with those from lidar station data at low latitudes. The cooling trends from HALOE also agree reasonably well with those from the lidar data for the concurrent decade. Cooling trends of the lower mesosphere from HALOE are not as large as those from rocketsondes and from lidar station time series of the previous two decades, presumably because the changes in the upper stratospheric ozone were near zero during the HALOE time period and did not affect those trends.

Long-Term Warming Trends in Korea and Contribution of Urbanization: An Updated Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Bo-Joung; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Min, Seung-Ki; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Choi, Youngeun; Boo, Kyung-On; Shim, Sungbo

2017-10-01

This study conducted an updated analysis of the long-term temperature trends over South Korea and reassessed the contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trends. Linear trends were analyzed for three different periods over South Korea in order to consider possible inhomogeneity due to changes in the number of available stations: recent 103 years (1912-2014), 61 years (1954-2014), and 42 years (1973-2014). The local temperature has increased by 1.90°C, 1.35°C, and 0.99°C during the three periods, respectively, which are found 1.4-2.6 times larger than the global land mean trends. The countries located in the northern middle and high latitudes exhibit similar warming trends (about 1.5 times stronger than the global mean), suggesting a weak influence of urbanization on the local warming over South Korea. Urbanization contribution is assessed using two methods. First, results from "city minus rural" methods showed that 30-45% of the local warming trends during recent four decades are likely due to the urbanization effect, depending on station classification methods and analysis periods. Results from an "observation minus reanalysis" method using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) data sets (v2 and v2c) indicated about 25-30% contribution of the urbanization effect to the local warming trend during the recent six decades. However, the urbanization contribution was estimated as low as 3-11% when considering the century-long period. Our results confirm large uncertainties in the estimation of urbanization contribution when using shorter-term periods and suggest that the urbanization contribution to the century-long warming trends could be much lower.

Albumin, bilirubin, uric acid and cancer risk: results from a prospective population-based study.

PubMed

Kühn, Tilman; Sookthai, Disorn; Graf, Mirja E; Schübel, Ruth; Freisling, Heinz; Johnson, Theron; Katzke, Verena; Kaaks, Rudolf

2017-11-07

It has long been proposed that albumin, bilirubin and uric acid may inhibit cancer development due to their anti-oxidative properties. However, there is a lack of population-based studies on blood levels of these molecules and cancer risk. Associations between pre-diagnostic serum albumin, bilirubin and uric acid and the risks of common cancers as well as cancer death in the EPIC-Heidelberg cohort were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. A case-cohort sample including a random subcohort (n=2739) and all incident cases of breast (n=627), prostate (n=554), colorectal (n=256), and lung cancer (n=195) as well as cancer death (n=761) that occurred between baseline (1994-1998) and 2009 was used. Albumin levels were inversely associated with breast cancer risk (hazard ratio Quartile 4 vs Quartile 1 (95% CI): 0.71 (0.51, 0.99), P linear trend =0.004) and overall cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.64 (0.48, 0.86), P linear trend <0.001) after multivariable adjustment. Uric acid levels were also inversely associated with breast cancer risk (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.72 (0.53, 0.99), P linear trend =0.043) and cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.75 (0.58, 0.98), P linear trend =0.09). There were no significant associations between albumin or uric acid and prostate, lung and colorectal cancer. Serum bilirubin was not associated with any cancer end point. The present findings indicate that higher levels of albumin and uric acid are related to lower risks of breast cancer and cancer mortality. Further studies are needed to assess whether the observed associations are causal.

Trends in out-of-pocket health care expenditures in Canada, by household income, 1997 to 2009.

PubMed

Sanmartin, Claudia; Hennessy, Deirdre; Lu, Yuqian; Law, Michael Robert

2014-04-01

Canadian households are spending an increasing share of their household income on health care not covered by public plans. This study investigates trends in out-of-pocket expenditures for health care services and products by household income quintile from 1997 to 2009. Biennial estimates from the Survey of Household Spending between 1997 and 2009 were used to examine changes in out-of-pocket health care expenditures, by household income quintile. The statistical significance of these changes was assessed using linear and logistic regression. In 2009, the percentage of after-tax household income spent on health care among low-income households (5.7%) was nearly twice that of high-income households (2.6%). Approximately 40% of households in the two lowest income quintiles spent more than 5% of their total after-tax income on health care services and products, compared with 14% of households in the highest income quintile. The increase in spending between 1997 and 2009 was greatest for households in the lowest income quintile (63%). Out-of-pocket health care expenditures have increased for households in all income quintiles, but the relative increase was greatest among households in lower income quintiles.

Landsat analysis for uranium exploration in Northeast Turkey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Keenan

1983-01-01

No uranium deposits are known in the Trabzon, Turkey region, and consequently, exploration criteria have not been defined. Nonetheless, by analogy with uranium deposits studied elsewhere, exploration guides are suggested to include dense concentrations of linear features, lineaments -- especially with northwest trend, acidic plutonic rocks, and alteration indicated by limonite. A suite of digitally processed images of a single Landsat scene served as the image base for mapping 3,376 linear features. Analysis of the linear feature data yielded two statistically significant trends, which in turn defined two sets of strong lineaments. Color composite images were used to map acidic plutonic rocks and areas of surficial limonitic materials. The Landsat interpretation yielded a map of these exploration guides that may be used to evaluate relative uranium potential. One area in particular shows a high coincidence of favorable indicators.

Trends in Disparity by Sex and Race/Ethnicity for the Leading Causes of Death in the United States-1999-2010.

PubMed

Chang, Man-Huei; Moonesinghe, Ramal; Athar, Heba M; Truman, Benedict I

2016-01-01

Temporal trends in disparities in the leading causes of death within and between US demographic subgroups indicate the need for and success of interventions to prevent premature death in vulnerable populations. Studies that report recent trends are limited and outdated. To describe temporal trends in disparities in death rates by sex and race/ethnicity for the 10 leading causes of death in the United States during 1999-2010. We used underlying cause of death data and population estimates from the National Vital Statistics System to calculate age-adjusted death rates for the 10 leading causes of death during 1999-2010. We measured absolute and relative disparities by sex and race/ethnicity for each cause and year of death; we used weighted linear regression to test for significance of trends over time. Of the 10 leading causes of death, age-adjusted death rates by sex and race/ethnicity declined during 1999-2010 for 6 causes and increased for 4 causes. But sex and racial/ethnic disparities between groups persisted for each year and cause of death. In the US population, the decreasing trend during 1999-2010 was greatest for cerebrovascular disease (-36.5%) and the increasing trend was greatest for Alzheimer disease (52.4%). For each sex and year, the disparity in death rates between Asian/Pacific Islanders (API) and other groups varied significantly by cause of death. In 2010, the API-non-Hispanic black disparity was largest for heart disease, malignant neoplasms, cerebrovascular diseases, and nephritis; the API-American Indian/Alaska Native disparity was largest for unintentional injury, diabetes mellitus, influenza and pneumonia, and suicide; and the API-non-Hispanic white disparity was largest for chronic lower respiratory diseases and Alzheimer disease. Public health practitioners can use these findings to improve policies and practices and to evaluate progress in eliminating disparities and their social determinants in vulnerable populations.

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981-2000.

PubMed

Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2006-05-03

The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981-2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising trend in the east than in the west, and low rates on an upward trend in the south. The downward pattern observed for cohorts born after 1920-1930 in northern, western, and southern regions suggests more favourable trends in coming years, in contrast to the eastern countries where birth-cohort pattern remains upward.

Sexualized behaviors in cohorts of children in the child welfare system.

PubMed

Grossi, Laura M; Lee, Austin F; Schuler, Ann; Ryan, Julie L; Prentky, Robert A

2016-02-01

The current retrospective archival study investigated the patterns of normative sexualized behavior (NSB), problematic sexualized behavior (PSB), and sexual perpetration for three age cohorts of boys and girls in a high-risk child welfare sample. All children in the present sample had exhibited some form of PSB in the past. We hypothesized that the incidence rates (IR) of NSBs would increase linearly from the early childhood cohort (Ages 2/3-7) to the middle childhood cohort (Ages 8-11) to the preadolescence/adolescence cohort (Ages 12-17), for girls and boys. Although the base rate of sexual behaviors generally increases as children age, children tend to hide sexual behaviors starting at an early age. We therefore hypothesized that a concave quadratic trend would be evident for most PSBs. We further predicted that older children would have a greater incidence of PSB, as well as more victims, compared with younger children. We found the predicted upward linear trend for NSB for both girls and boys, with minimal IR differences between the early childhood and middle childhood cohorts. IRs were remarkably high and comparable across age groups for both boys and girls, with respect to the same three PSBs. For the two perpetration history variables, there was a concave effect, with girls and boys in the middle childhood cohort exhibiting the lowest IR. Results are explained in the context of previously established patterns of sexualized behavior, as well as the reporting of such behaviors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil pH determines fungal diversity along an elevation gradient in Southwestern China.

PubMed

Liu, Dan; Liu, Guohua; Chen, Li; Wang, Juntao; Zhang, Limei

2018-01-03

Fungi play important roles in ecosystem processes, and the elevational pattern of fungal diversity is still unclear. Here, we examined the diversity of fungi along a 1,000 m elevation gradient on Mount Nadu, Southwestern China. We used MiSeq sequencing to obtain fungal sequences that were clustered into operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and to measure the fungal composition and diversity. Though the species richness and phylogenetic diversity of the fungal community did not exhibit significant trends with increasing altitude, they were significantly lower at mid-altitudinal sites than at the base. The Bray-Curtis distance clustering also showed that the fungal communities varied significantly with altitude. A distance-based linear model multivariate analysis (DistLM) identified that soil pH dominated the explanatory power of the species richness (23.72%), phylogenetic diversity (24.25%) and beta diversity (28.10%) of the fungal community. Moreover, the species richness and phylogenetic diversity of the fungal community increased linearly with increasing soil pH (P<0.05). Our study provides evidence that pH is an important predictor of soil fungal diversity along elevation gradients in Southwestern China.

Injuries of the head from backface deformation of ballistic protective helmets under ballistic impact.

PubMed

Rafaels, Karin A; Cutcliffe, Hattie C; Salzar, Robert S; Davis, Martin; Boggess, Brian; Bush, Bryan; Harris, Robert; Rountree, Mark Steve; Sanderson, Ellory; Campman, Steven; Koch, Spencer; Dale Bass, Cameron R

2015-01-01

Modern ballistic helmets defeat penetrating bullets by energy transfer from the projectile to the helmet, producing helmet deformation. This deformation may cause severe injuries without completely perforating the helmet, termed "behind armor blunt trauma" (BABT). As helmets become lighter, the likelihood of larger helmet backface deformation under ballistic impact increases. To characterize the potential for BABT, seven postmortem human head/neck specimens wearing a ballistic protective helmet were exposed to nonperforating impact, using a 9 mm, full metal jacket, 124 grain bullet with velocities of 400-460 m/s. An increasing trend of injury severity was observed, ranging from simple linear fractures to combinations of linear and depressed fractures. Overall, the ability to identify skull fractures resulting from BABT can be used in forensic investigations. Our results demonstrate a high risk of skull fracture due to BABT and necessitate the prevention of BABT as a design factor in future generations of protective gear. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Radiology utilization in the emergency department: trends of the past 2 decades.

PubMed

Raja, Ali S; Ip, Ivan K; Sodickson, Aaron D; Walls, Ron M; Seltzer, Steven E; Kosowsky, Joshua M; Khorasani, Ramin

2014-08-01

The objective of our study was to assess radiology utilization trends for emergency department (ED) patients from 1993 through 2012. For this retrospective study, we reviewed radiology utilization at a 793-bed quaternary care academic medical center from January 1, 1993, through December 31, 2012, during which time the number of ED patient visits increased from approximately 48,000 to 61,000, and determined the number of imaging studies by modality (radiography, sonography, CT, MRI, other) and associated relative value units (RVUs). We used linear regression to assess for trends in the number of imaging RVUs and imaging accession numbers, our primary and secondary outcomes, respectively. The total RVUs attributable to ED imaging per 1000 ED visits increased 208% from 1993 to 2007 (p < 0.0001) and then decreased 24.7% by 2012 (p = 0.0019). The total number of imaging accession numbers per 1000 ED visits increased 47.8% from 1993 until 2005 (p = 0.0003) and then decreased 26.9% by 2012 (p < 0.0001). CT RVUs per 1000 ED visits increased 493% until 2007 (p < 0.0001) and then decreased 33.4% (p < 0.0001), and MRI RVUs increased 2475% until 2008 (p < 0.0001) and then decreased 20.6% (p < 0.0032). Sonography RVUs increased 75.7% over the study period (p < 0.0001), whereas radiography RVUs decreased 28.1% (p = 0.0009). After a period of substantial increase from 1993 to 2007, volume-adjusted ED imaging RVUs declined from 2007 through 2012, largely because of the decreasing use of CT and MRI. Additional studies are needed to determine the causes of this decline, which may include quality improvement activities, advocacy for appropriateness by leadership, concerns regarding radiation exposure and cost, and health information technology interventions.

Zooplankton responses to increasing sea surface temperatures in the southeastern Australia global marine hotspot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, Paige; Clementson, Lesley; Davies, Claire; Corney, Stuart; Swadling, Kerrie

2016-10-01

Southeastern Australia is a 'hotspot' for oceanographic change. Here, rapidly increasing sea surface temperatures, rising at more than double the global trend, are largely associated with a southerly extension of the East Australian Current (EAC) and its eddy field. Maria Island, situated at the southern end of the EAC extension at 42°S, 148°E, has been used as a site to study temperature-driven biological trends in this region of accelerated change. Zooplankton have short life cycles (usually < 1 year) and are highly sensitive to environmental change, making them an ideal indicator of the biological effects of an increased southward flow of the EAC. Data from in-situ net drops and the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR), collected since 2009, together with historical zooplankton abundance data, have been analysed in this study. Like the North Atlantic, zooplankton communities of southeastern Australia are responding to increased temperatures through relocation, long-term increases in warm-water species and a shift towards a zooplankton community dominated by small copepods. The biological trends present evidence of extended EAC influence at Maria Island into autumn and winter months, which has allowed for the rapid establishment of warm-water species during these seasons, and has increased the similarity between Maria Island and the more northerly Port Hacking zooplankton community. Generalised Linear Models (GLM) suggest the high salinity and low nutrient properties of EAC-water to be the primary drivers of increasing abundances of warm-water species off southeastern Australia. Changes in both the species composition and size distribution of the Maria Island zooplankton community will have effects for pelagic fisheries. This study provides an indication of how zooplankton communities influenced by intensifying Western Boundary currents may respond to rapid environmental change.

Birth weight trends in England and Wales (1986–2012): babies are getting heavier

PubMed Central

Berild, Jacob Dag; Sterrantino, Anna Freni; Toledano, Mireille B; Hansell, Anna L

2018-01-01

Introduction Birth weight is a strong predictor of infant mortality, morbidity and later disease risk. Previous work from the 1980s indicated a shift in the UK towards heavier births; this descriptive analysis looks at more recent trends. Methods Office for National Statistics (ONS) registration data on 17.2 million live, single births from 1986 to 2012 were investigated for temporal trends in mean birth weight, potential years of birth weight change and changes in the proportions of very low (<1500 g), low (<2500 g) and high (≥4000 g) birth weight. Analysis used multiple linear and logistic regression adjusted for maternal age, marital status, area-level deprivation and ethnicity. Additional analyses used the ONS NHS Numbers for Babies data set for 2006–2012, which has information on individual ethnicity and gestational age. Results Over 27 years there was an increase in birth weight of 43 g (95% CI 42 to 44) in females and 44 g (95% CI 43 to 45) in males, driven by birth weight increases between 1986–1990 and 2007–2012. There was a concurrent decreased risk of having low birth weight but an 8% increased risk in males and 10% increased risk in females of having high birth weight. For 2006–2012 the birth weight increase was greater in preterm as compared with term births. Conclusions Since 1986 the birth weight distribution of live, single births in England and Wales has shifted towards heavier births, partly explained by increases in maternal age and non-white ethnicity, as well as changes in deprivation levels. Other potential influences include increases in maternal obesity and reductions in smoking prevalence particularly following the introduction of legislation restricting smoking in public places in 2007. PMID:28780501

Trends in overweight among women differ by occupational class: results from 33 low- and middle-income countries in the period 1992-2009.

PubMed

Lopez-Arana, S; Avendano, M; van Lenthe, F J; Burdorf, A

2014-01-01

There has been an increase in overweight among women in low- and middle-income countries but whether these trends differ for women in different occupations is unknown. We examined trends by occupational class among women from 33 low- and middle-income countries in four regions. Cross-national study with repeated cross-sectional demographic health surveys. Height and weight were assessed at least twice between 1992 and 2009 in 248,925 women aged 25-49 years. Interviews were conducted to assess occupational class, age, place of residence, educational level, household wealth index, parity, age at first birth and breastfeeding. We used logistic and linear regression analyses to assess the annual percent change in overweight (body mass index >25 kg m(-2)) by occupational class. The prevalence of overweight ranged from 2.2% in Nepal in 1992-1997 to 75% in Egypt in 2004-2009. In all the four regions, women working in agriculture had consistently lower prevalence of overweight, while women from professional, technical, managerial as well as clerical occupational classes had higher prevalence. Although the prevalence of overweight increased in all the occupational classes in most regions, women working in agriculture and production experienced the largest increase in overweight over the study period, while women in higher occupational classes experienced smaller increases. To illustrate, overweight increased annually by 0.5% in Latin America and the Caribbean and by 0.7% in Sub-Saharan Africa among women from professional, technical and managerial classes, as compared with 2.8% and 3.7%, respectively, among women in agriculture. The prevalence of overweight has increased in most low- and middle-income countries, but women working in agriculture and production have experienced larger increases than women in higher occupational classes.

Constraints on High Northern Photosynthesis Increase Using Earth System Models and a Set of Independent Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkler, A. J.; Brovkin, V.; Myneni, R.; Alexandrov, G.

2017-12-01

Plant growth in the northern high latitudes benefits from increasing temperature (radiative effect) and CO2 fertilization as a consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. This enhanced gross primary production (GPP) is evident in large scale increase in summer time greening over the 36-year record of satellite observations. In this time period also various global ecosystem models simulate a greening trend in terms of increasing leaf area index (LAI). We also found a persistent greening trend analyzing historical simulations of Earth system models (ESM) participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, these models span a large range in strength of the LAI trend, expressed as sensitivity to both key environmental factors, temperature and CO2 concentration. There is also a wide spread in magnitude of the associated increase of terrestrial GPP among the ESMs, which contributes to pronounced uncertainties in projections of future climate change. Here we demonstrate that there is a linear relationship across the CMIP5 model ensemble between projected GPP changes and historical LAI sensitivity, which allows using the observed LAI sensitivity as an "emerging constraint" on GPP estimation at future CO2 concentration. This constrained estimate of future GPP is substantially higher than the traditional multi-model mean suggesting that the majority of current ESMs may be significantly underestimating carbon fixation by vegetation in NHL. We provide three independent lines of evidence in analyzing observed and simulated CO2 amplitude as well as atmospheric CO2 inversion products to arrive at the same conclusion.

Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

PubMed

Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

2008-05-01

Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

Modeling subharmonic response from contrast microbubbles as a function of ambient static pressure

PubMed Central

Katiyar, Amit; Sarkar, Kausik; Forsberg, Flemming

2011-01-01

Variation of subharmonic response from contrast microbubbles with ambient pressure is numerically investigated for non-invasive monitoring of organ-level blood pressure. Previously, several contrast microbubbles both in vitro and in vivo registered approximately linear (5–15 dB) subharmonic response reduction with 188 mm Hg change in ambient pressure. In contrast, simulated subharmonic response from a single microbubble is seen here to either increase or decrease with ambient pressure. This is shown using the code BUBBLESIM for encapsulated microbubbles, and then the underlying dynamics is investigated using a free bubble model. The ratio of the excitation frequency to the natural frequency of the bubble is the determining parameter—increasing ambient pressure increases natural frequency thereby changing this ratio. For frequency ratio below a lower critical value, increasing ambient pressure monotonically decreases subharmonic response. Above an upper critical value of the same ratio, increasing ambient pressure increases subharmonic response; in between, the subharmonic variation is non-monotonic. The precise values of frequency ratio for these three different trends depend on bubble radius and excitation amplitude. The modeled increase or decrease of subharmonic with ambient pressure, when one happens, is approximately linear only for certain range of excitation levels. Possible reasons for discrepancies between model and previous experiments are discussed. PMID:21476688

Is there a signal of sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay salinity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hilton, T. W.; Najjar, R. G.; Zhong, L.; Li, M.

2008-09-01

We evaluate the hypothesis that sea-level rise over the second half of the 20th century has led to detectable increases in Chesapeake Bay salinity. We exploit a simple, statistical model that predicts monthly mean salinity as a function of Susquehanna River flow in 23 segments of the main stem Chesapeake Bay. The residual (observed minus modeled) salinity exhibits statistically significant linear (p < 0.05) trends between 1949 and 2006 in 13 of the 23 segments of the bay. The salinity change estimated from the trend line over this period varies from -2.0 to 2.2, with 10 of the 13 cells showing positive changes. The mean and median salinity changes over all 23 cells are 0.47 and 0.72; over the 13 cells with significant trends they are 0.71 and 1.1. We ran a hydrodynamic model of the bay under present-day and reduced sea level conditions and found a bay-average salinity increase of about 0.5, which supports the hypothesis that the salinity residual trends have a significant component due to sea-level rise. Uncertainties remain, however, due to the spatial and temporal extent of historical salinity data and the infilling of the bay due to sedimentation. The salinity residuals also exhibit interannual variability, with peaks occurring at intervals of roughly 7 to 9 years, which are partially explained by Atlantic Shelf salinity, Potomac River flow and the meridional component of wind stress.

Decadal variations in atmospheric water vapor time series estimated using GNSS, ERA-Interim, and synoptic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alshawaf, Fadwa; Dick, Galina; Heise, Stefan; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Schmidt, Torsten; Wickert, Jens

2017-04-01

Ground-based GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) have efficiently been used since the 1990s as a meteorological observing system. Recently scientists used GNSS time series of precipitable water vapor (PWV) for climate research although they may not be sufficiently long. In this work, we compare the trend estimated from GNSS time series with that estimated from European Center for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data and meteorological measurements.We aim at evaluating climate evolution in Central Europe by monitoring different atmospheric variables such as temperature and PWV. PWV time series were obtained by three methods: 1) estimated from ground-based GNSS observations using the method of precise point positioning, 2) inferred from ERA-Interim data, and 3) determined based on daily surface measurements of temperature and relative humidity. The other variables are available from surface meteorological stations or received from ERA-Interim. The PWV trend component estimated from GNSS data strongly correlates (>70%) with that estimated from the other data sets. The linear trend is estimated by straight line fitting over 30 years of seasonally-adjusted PWV time series obtained using the meteorological measurements. The results show a positive trend in the PWV time series with an increase of 0.2-0.7 mm/decade with a mean standard deviations of 0.016 mm/decade. In this paper, we present the results at three GNSS stations. The temporal increment of the PWV correlates with the temporal increase in the temperature levels.

Authorship in Radiation Oncology: Proliferation Trends Over 30 Years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ojerholm, Eric, E-mail: eric.ojerholm@uphs.upenn.edu; Swisher-McClure, Samuel

Purpose: To investigate authorship trends in the radiation oncology literature. Methods and Materials: We examined the authorship credits of “original research articles” within 2 popular radiation oncology journals–International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics and Radiotherapy and Oncology–in 1984, 1994, 2004, and 2014. We compared the number of authors per publication during these 4 time periods using simple linear regression as a test for trend. We investigated additional author characteristics in a subset of articles. Results: A total of 2005 articles were eligible. The mean number of authors per publication rose from 4.3 in 1984 to 9.1 in 2014 (P<.001).more » On subset analysis of 400 articles, there was an increase in the percentage of multidisciplinary bylines (from 52% to 72%), multi-institutional bylines (from 20% to 53%), and publications with a trainee first author (from 16% to 56%) during the study period. Conclusions: The mean number of authors per publication has more than doubled over the last 30 years in the radiation oncology literature. Possible explanations include increasingly complex and collaborative research as well as honorary authorship. Explicit documentation of author contributions could help ensure that scientific work is credited according to accepted standards.« less

Deformation of the total ozone content field in the tropical zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vasilyev, Victor I.

1994-01-01

Presented are the ozone investigation results obtained in the tropical zone. Measurements of the total ozone content (TOC) were carried out by the ozonometer M-124. The ozonometer was automated to investigate the ozone intradiurnal variations and to increase precision of the TOC measurements. Obtained results allowed us to follow the effect of tropical cyclones (TC) on the TOC field. Several days before the TC formation the TOC increase is observed in daily mean course compared with the background one. Three types of trend can be singled out in the TOC intradiurnal course: zero, parabolic, quasi-linear. Maximum velocities of a trend are observed some days before the TC formation. Analogous harmonic constituents are mainly presented as spectrum of daily means of ozone, mean and absolute velocities of trend and dispersion as well as spectra of meteorological, hydrometeorological and actinometric values. Revealed is a number of day-to-day ozone variations concerned with large-scale circulations; moisture content in the atmosphere. Obtained are the data about short-period ozone waves (period less than a day). Thin-film silver sensors were used to measure the vertical ozone distribution (VOD). Atmospheric aerosol and VOD measurements were carried out simultaneously, they gave data of the VOD layered structure, where the VOD local minima coincided with the position of aerosol layers' maxima.

AIDS in adults 50 years of age and over: characteristics, trends and spatial distribution of the risk1

PubMed Central

Nogueira, Jordana de Almeida; Silva, Antônia Oliveira; de Sá, Laísa Ribeiro; de Almeida, Sandra Aparecida; Monroe, Aline Aparecida; Villa, Tereza Cristina Scatena

2014-01-01

Objective to analyze the sociodemographic characteristics, epidemic trend and spatial distribution of the risk of AIDS in adults 50 years of age and over. Method population-based, ecological study, that used secondary data from the Notifiable Disease Information System (Sinan/AIDS) of Paraíba state from the period January 2000 to December 2010. Results during the study period, 307 cases of AIDS were reported among people 50 years of age or over. There was a predominance of males (205/66, 8%), mixed race, and low education levels. The municipalities with populations above 100 thousand inhabitants reported 58.5% of the cases. There was a progressive increase in cases among women; an increasing trend in the incidence (positive linear correlation); and an advance in the geographical spread of the disease, with expansion to the coastal region and to the interior of the state, reaching municipalities with populations below 30 thousand inhabitants. In some locations the risk of disease was 100 times greater than the relative risk for the state. Conclusion aging, with the feminization and interiorization of the epidemic in adults 50 years of age and over, confirms the need for the induction of affirmative policies targeted toward this age group. PMID:25029044

Secular trends in the association between nativity/length of US residence with body mass index and waist circumference among Mexican-Americans, 1988–2008

PubMed Central

Diez Roux, Ana V.; Aiello, Allison E.; Schulz, Amy J.; Abraido-Lanza, Ana F.

2012-01-01

Objectives We investigated whether associations between nativity/length of US residence and body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) varied over the past two decades. Methods Mexican-Americans aged 20–64 years from the National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES) III (1988–1994), and NHANES (1999–2008). Sex-stratified multivariable linear regression models further adjusted for age, education, and NHANES period. Results We found no evidence of secular variation in the nativity/length of US residence gradient for men or women. Foreign-born Mexican-Americans, irrespective of residence length, had lower mean BMI and WC than their US-born counterparts. However among women, education modified secular trends in nativity differentials: notably, in less-educated women, nativity gradients widened over time due to alarming increases in BMI among the US-born and little increase in the foreign-born. Conclusions Associations between nativity/length of US residence and BMI/WC did not vary over this 20-year period, but we noted important modifications by education in women. Understanding these trends is important for identifying vulnerable subpopulations among Mexican-Americans and for the development of effective health promotion strategies in this fast-growing segment of the population. PMID:23052250

Compound-specific carbon isotope analysis of instantaneous gas generated from shaly coal during hydrous pyrolysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Wen-Yu; Sun, Chih-Hsien; Huang, Wuu-Liang

2010-05-01

Isotopes of natural gases have provided important information for indicating their maturation, origins and influencing factors during the generation processes. In order to distinguish compositions of gas generated at different intervals of maturities, the present study investigates the variation of compound-specific carbon isotope (CSI) ratios of hydrocarbon gases from a shaly coal by instantaneous hydrous pyrolysis, during which the earlier generated gas was evacuated before the start of next maturation stage. The experiments were conducted at ten different maturity stages (0.65 to 2.02 % Ro) from a terrestrial shaly coal with 0.48 % Ro. The gas products were analyzed by GC-IR-MS. The results show that, in general, the δ13C values of methane (C1), ethane (C2), propane (C3) slightly increase, then decrease and finally increase with increasing maturities. This reverse phenomenon indicates the heterogeneous and complex compositions of the kerogen. The isotope compositions of gases exhibit three distinct clusters in natural gas plot of δ13C values versus 1/n (where n is carbon number of the gaseous molecule), corresponding to three different groups of maturity stages. By linking the same maturity stage of δ13C values, all lines show nearly parallel in each group with consistently reverse trend of δ13C3 < δ13C2 > δ13C1. These three distinct clusters were also observed in the cross plotting of iC4/nC4 versus iC5/nC5 isomer ratios. This may imply that the kerogen is composed of three discrete structural domains which were progressively cracked at three major groups of maturity stages. The reverse trend was inconsistent with data for gas collected cumulatively in most prior pyrolysis experiments and the linear relationship predicted from kinetic isotope effect (KIE) model. Although the non-linear relationship or reverse trend, δ13C3 < δ13C2, was also reported for some natural gases, it was interpreted as a result of mixing from different source rocks or other processes. Our results, however, suggest that this non-linear relationship or reverse phenomenon can also be attributed to the mixing of gases generated from different maturity stages solely from a single source formation. Therefore, our results provide a new interpretation for the variation of isotope data of the cumulative and instantaneous gases in hydrous pyrolysis experiments and isotope variation in natural gas.

Algorithmic Trading with Developmental and Linear Genetic Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Garnett; Banzhaf, Wolfgang

A developmental co-evolutionary genetic programming approach (PAM DGP) and a standard linear genetic programming (LGP) stock trading systemare applied to a number of stocks across market sectors. Both GP techniques were found to be robust to market fluctuations and reactive to opportunities associated with stock price rise and fall, with PAMDGP generating notably greater profit in some stock trend scenarios. Both algorithms were very accurate at buying to achieve profit and selling to protect assets, while exhibiting bothmoderate trading activity and the ability to maximize or minimize investment as appropriate. The content of the trading rules produced by both algorithms are also examined in relation to stock price trend scenarios.

Estimating the intensity of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayan Mangku, I.

2017-10-01

In this paper we survey some results on estimation of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend. We do not assume any parametric form for the cyclic component of the intensity function, except that it is periodic. Moreover, we consider the case when there is only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded interval. The considered estimators are weakly and strongly consistent when the size of the observation interval indefinitely expands. Asymptotic approximations to the bias and variance of those estimators are presented.

Impact of the HIV Epidemic on the Incidence Rates of Anal Cancer in the United States

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The risk of anal cancer is substantially increased in HIV-infected individuals. Thus, the HIV epidemic may have influenced the increasing anal cancer trends in the United States. We estimated the impact of the HIV epidemic on trends in anal cancer incidence in the United States during 1980–2005. Methods Data on anal cancer cases with and without AIDS were obtained from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study. The number of HIV-infected anal cancer cases without AIDS was estimated from the number of anal cancers occurring before diagnosis of AIDS. The proportion of anal cancer cases with HIV infection in the general population was calculated. We estimated temporal trends in the incidence rates of anal cancer in the general population overall and after exclusion of HIV-infected cancer cases by calculating annual percent changes and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a Joinpoint log-linear model. All incidence rates were standardized to the 2000 US population by age, sex, and race. Results During 1980–2005, of the 20 533 estimated anal cancer cases, 1665 (8.1%) were HIV-infected. During 2001–2005, the proportion of anal cancer cases with HIV infection was the highest—1.2% (95% CI = 0.93 to 1.4%) among females and 28.4% (95% CI = 26.6 to 29.4%) among males. During 1980–2005, HIV infection did not have an impact on the trends in anal cancer among females (incidence rates increased by 3.3% [95% CI = 3.0 to 3.7%] annually overall, and by 3.3% [95% CI = 2.9 to 3.6%] annually without HIV-infected anal cancer cases) but had a strong impact on the trends in anal cancer among males (incidence rates increased by 3.4% [95% CI = 2.9 to 3.9%] annually overall, and by 1.7% [95% CI = 1.2 to 2.3%] annually without HIV infection). Conclusion During 1980–2005, the increasing anal cancer incidence rates in the United States were strongly influenced by the HIV epidemic in males but were independent of HIV infection in females. PMID:23042932

Two Aspects of the Simplex Model: Goodness of Fit to Linear Growth Curve Structures and the Analysis of Mean Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mandys, Frantisek; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

1994-01-01

Studied the conditions under which the quasi-Markov simplex model fits a linear growth curve covariance structure and determined when the model is rejected. Presents a quasi-Markov simplex model with structured means and gives an example. (SLD)

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Major Crustal Fault Zone Trends and Their Relation to Mineral Belts in the North-Central Great Basin, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodriguez, Brian D.; Sampson, Jay A.; Williams, Jackie M.

2007-01-01

The Great Basin physiographic province covers a large part of the western United States and contains one of the world's leading gold-producing areas, the Carlin Trend. In the Great Basin, many sedimentary-rock-hosted disseminated gold deposits occur along such linear mineral-occurrence trends. The distribution and genesis of these deposits is not fully understood, but most models indicate that regional tectonic structures play an important role in their spatial distribution. Over 100 magnetotelluric (MT) soundings were acquired between 1994 and 2001 by the U.S. Geological Survey to investigate crustal structures that may underlie the linear trends in north-central Nevada. MT sounding data were used to map changes in electrical resistivity as a function of depth that are related to subsurface lithologic and structural variations. Two-dimensional (2-D) resistivity modeling of the MT data reveals primarily northerly and northeasterly trending narrow 2-D conductors (1 to 30 ohm-m) extending to mid-crustal depths (5-20 km) that are interpreted to be major crustal fault zones. There are also a few westerly and northwesterly trending 2-D conductors. However, the great majority of the inferred crustal fault zones mapped using MT are perpendicular or oblique to the generally accepted trends. The correlation of strike of three crustal fault zones with the strike of the Carlin and Getchell trends and the Alligator Ridge district suggests they may have been the root fluid flow pathways that fed faults and fracture networks at shallower levels where gold precipitated in favorable host rocks. The abundant northeasterly crustal structures that do not correlate with the major trends may be structures that are open to fluid flow at the present time.

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2015-04-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterized and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterized uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2014-12-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterised and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterised uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Parameter selection with the Hotelling observer in linear iterative image reconstruction for breast tomosynthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Sean D.; Roth, Jacob; Zimmerman, Cole; Reiser, Ingrid; Sidky, Emil Y.; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-03-01

In this work we investigate an efficient implementation of a region-of-interest (ROI) based Hotelling observer (HO) in the context of parameter optimization for detection of a rod signal at two orientations in linear iterative image reconstruction for DBT. Our preliminary results suggest that ROI-HO performance trends may be efficiently estimated by modeling only the 2D plane perpendicular to the detector and containing the X-ray source trajectory. In addition, the ROI-HO is seen to exhibit orientation dependent trends in detectability as a function of the regularization strength employed in reconstruction. To further investigate the ROI-HO performance in larger 3D system models, we present and validate an iterative methodology for calculating the ROI-HO. Lastly, we present a real data study investigating the correspondence between ROI-HO performance trends and signal conspicuity. Conspicuity of signals in real data reconstructions is seen to track well with trends in ROI-HO detectability. In particular, we observe orientation dependent conspicuity matching the orientation dependent detectability of the ROI-HO.

Linearly chirped fiber Bragg grating response to thermal gradient: from bench tests to the real-time assessment during in vivo laser ablations of biological tissue.

PubMed

Saccomandi, Paola; Varalda, Ambra; Gassino, Riccardo; Tosi, Daniele; Massaroni, Carlo; Caponero, Michele A; Pop, Raoul; Korganbayev, Sanzhar; Perrone, Guido; Diana, Michele; Vallan, Alberto; Costamagna, Guido; Marescaux, Jacques; Schena, Emiliano

2017-09-01

The response of a fiber optic sensor [linearly chirped fiber Bragg grating (LCFBG)] to a linear thermal gradient applied on its sensing length (i.e., 1.5 cm) has been investigated. After these bench tests, we assessed their feasibility for temperature monitoring during thermal tumor treatment. In particular, we performed experiments during ex vivo laser ablation (LA) in pig liver and in vivo thermal ablation in animal models (pigs). We investigated the following: (i) the relationship between the full width at half maximum of the LCFBG spectrum and the temperature difference among the extremities of the LCFBG and (ii) the relationship between the mean spectrum wavelength and the mean temperature acting on the LCFBG sensing area. These relationships showed a linear trend during both bench tests and LA in animal models. Thermal sensitivity was significant although different values were found with regards to bench tests and animal experiments. The linear trend and significant sensitivity allow hypothesizing a future use of this kind of sensor to monitor both temperature gradient and mean temperature within a tissue undergoing thermal treatment. (2017) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).

Structural and lithologic study of northern California Coast Range and Sacramento Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, E. I. (Principal Investigator); Steele, W. C.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Photgeologic examination of repetitive multispectral ERTS-1 imagery of Northern California has disclosed several systems of linear features which may be important for the interpretation of the structural history of California. They are separated from an orthogonal system of linears in the Klamath Mts. by a set of discontinuous southeast-trending linear features (the Mendocino system) which is traceable from the Pacific Coast, at Cape Mendocino, into the eastern foothills of the Sierra Nevada. Within the Sierra Nevada, the Mendocino system separates the north-trending Sierran system from a set of linears characteristic of the Modoc Plateau. With minor exception, little overlap exists among the systems which suggests a decipherable chronology and evolutionary history for the region. The San Andres system of linears appears to truncate or co-exist with most of the other systems in the northern Coast Ranges. The Mendocino system truncates the Klamath, Sierran, and Modoc systems. The Sierran system may represent fundamental and long-persisting pre-late Paleozoic zones of crustal weakness which have been reactivated from time to time. The Mendocino system was possibly developed in early Mesozoic and is important to the structural framework of Northern California.

Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.

2016-10-01

As assessed over the period 1979-2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ˜ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

Weight misperception and disordered weight control behaviors among U.S. high school students with overweight and obesity: Associations and trends, 1999-2013.

PubMed

Hazzard, Vivienne M; Hahn, Samantha L; Sonneville, Kendrin R

2017-08-01

To examine prevalence of weight misperception (incongruence between one's perceived weight status and one's actual weight status) and disordered weight control behaviors (DWCBs; unhealthy behaviors aiming to control or modify weight), associations between weight misperception and DWCBs, and temporal trends in prevalence and associations among adolescents with overweight and obesity from 1999 to 2013. Self-reported data from eight biennial cycles (1999-2013) of the cross-sectional national Youth Risk Behavior Survey were used in analyses restricted to respondents with overweight/obesity. Data on weight status perception, use of fasting, purging, and diet pills to control weight, sex, race/ethnicity, and grade in school were used in multivariate logistic regression models. Among U.S. high school students with overweight and obesity, no linear temporal trends were detected for prevalence of weight misperception, fasting, or purging between 1999 and 2013, while a significant linear decrease was observed for prevalence of diet pill use between 1999 and 2013 (b=-0.81, p<0.01). Using data pooled across 1999-2013, weight misperception predicted lower use of all DWCBs examined in this study among females and lower use of fasting to control weight among males. No significant changes over time in associations of weight misperception with fasting or purging were observed, though the association between weight misperception and diet pill use weakened somewhat across 1999-2013. In the context of increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity, weight misperception appears to be a robust protective factor for DWCBs. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges.

PubMed

Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent; Ottvall, Richard; Van Turnhout, Chris; Van der Jeugd, Henk; Lindström, Ake

2010-12-07

Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.

Increased rates of authorship in radiology publications: a bibliometric analysis of 142,576 articles published worldwide by radiologists between 1991 and 2012.

PubMed

Chow, Daniel S; Ha, Richard; Filippi, Christopher G

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE; There is evidence in academic medicine that the number of authors per paper has increased over time. The goal of this study was to quantitatively analyze authorship trends in the field of radiology over 20 years. A search of the National Library of Medicine MEDLINE database was conducted to identify articles published by radiology departments between 1991 and 2012. Country of origin, article study design, and journal impact factor were recorded. The increase in number of authors per paper was assessed by linear and nonlinear regression. Pearson correlation was used to assess the relation between journal impact factor and number of authors. A total of 142,576 articles and 699,257 authors were identified during the study period. The mean number of authors per paper displayed linear growth from 3.9 to 5.7 (p < 0.0001). The proportion of single authors declined from 11% in 1991 to 4.4% in 2012. The number of clinical trials increased in a linear pattern, review articles in an exponential pattern, and case reports in a logistic pattern (p < 0.0001 for each). Countries with the highest number of authors per paper were Japan, Italy, and Germany. The number of articles funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) displayed exponential growth and of non-NIH-funded articles displayed linear growth (p < 0.0001 for each). A negligible relation was observed between journal impact factor and number of authors (Pearson r = 0.1066). Radiology has had a steady increase in mean number of authors per paper since the early 1990s that has varied by study design. The increase is probably multi-factorial and includes components of author inflation and increasing complexity of research. Findings support the need for reemphasis of authorship criteria to preserve authorship value and accountability.

Trends in age verification among U.S. adolescents attempting to buy cigarettes at retail stores, 2000-2009.

PubMed

Filippidis, Filippos T; Agaku, Israel T; Connolly, Gregory N; Vardavas, Constantine I

2014-04-01

This study assessed trends in age verification prior to cigarette sales to U.S. middle and high school students, and refusal to sell cigarettes to students aged <18 years during 2000-2009. Data were obtained from the 2000-2009 National Youth Tobacco Survey. Trends during 2000-2009 were assessed using binary logistic regression (p<0.05). The proportion of all students, who reported being asked to show proof of age prior to a cigarette purchase in the past 30 days did not change significantly between 2000 (46.9%) and 2009 (44.9%) (p=0.529 for linear trend). No significant trend in the proportion of students aged < 18 years who were refused a sale when attempting to buy cigarettes was observed between 2000 (39.8%) and 2009 (36.7%) (p=0.283 for linear trend). Refusal of a cigarette sale was significantly higher among under-aged boys compared to girls (adjusted odds ratio=1.48; 95% confidence interval: 1.28-1.70). About half of U.S. middle and high school students who reported making a cigarette purchase were not asked for proof of age, and about three of five under-aged buyers successfully made a cigarette purchase in 2009. Intensified implementation and enforcement of policies requiring age verification among youths is warranted to reduce access and use of tobacco products. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ozone response to emission reductions in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard, Charles L.; Hidy, George M.

2018-06-01

Ozone (O3) formation in the southeastern US is studied in relation to nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions using long-term (1990s-2015) surface measurements of the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) network, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) O3 measurements, and EPA Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) nitrate deposition data. Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8 h O3 mixing ratios at EPA monitoring sites in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi exhibit statistically significant (p < 0.0001) linear correlations with annual NOx emissions in those states between 1996 and 2015. The annual fourth-highest daily peak 8 h O3 mixing ratios declined toward values of ˜ 45-50 ppbv and monthly O3 maxima decreased at rates averaging ˜ 1-1.5 ppbv yr-1. Mean annual total oxidized nitrogen (NOy) mixing ratios at SEARCH sites declined in proportion to NOx emission reductions. CASTNET data show declining wet and dry nitrate deposition since the late 1990s, with total (wet plus dry) nitrate deposition fluxes decreasing linearly in proportion to reductions of NOx emissions by ˜ 60 % in Alabama and Georgia. Annual nitrate deposition rates at Georgia and Alabama CASTNET sites correspond to 30 % of Georgia emission rates and 36 % of Alabama emission rates, respectively. The fraction of NOx emissions lost to deposition has not changed. SEARCH and CASTNET sites exhibit downward trends in mean annual nitric acid (HNO3) concentrations. Observed relationships of O3 to NOz (NOy-NOx) support past model predictions of increases in cycling of NO and increasing responsiveness of O3 to NOx. The study data provide a long-term record that can be used to examine the accuracy of process relationships embedded in modeling efforts. Quantifying observed O3 trends and relating them to reductions in ambient NOy species concentrations offers key insights into processes of general relevance to air quality management and provides important information supporting strategies for reducing O3 mixing ratios.

Meat intake and risk of diverticulitis among men.

PubMed

Cao, Yin; Strate, Lisa L; Keeley, Brieze R; Tam, Idy; Wu, Kana; Giovannucci, Edward L; Chan, Andrew T

2018-03-01

Diverticulitis is a common disease with a substantial clinical and economic burden. Besides dietary fibre, the role of other foods in the prevention of diverticulitis is underexplored. We prospectively examined the association between consumption of meat (total red meat, red unprocessed meat, red processed meat, poultry and fish) with risk of incident diverticulitis among 46 461 men enrolled in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1986-2012). Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute relative risks (RRs) and 95% CIs. During 651 970 person-years of follow-up, we documented 764 cases of incident diverticulitis. Compared with men in the lowest quintile (Q1) of total red meat consumption, men in the highest quintile (Q5) had a multivariable RR of 1.58 (95% CI 1.19 to 2.11; p for trend=0.01). The increase in risk was non-linear, plateauing after six servings per week (p for non-linearity=0.002). The association was stronger for unprocessed red meat (RR for Q5 vs Q1: 1.51; 95% CI 1.12 to 2.03; p for trend=0.03) than for processed red meat (RR for Q5 vs Q1: 1.03; 95% CI 0.78 to 1.35; p for trend=0.26). Higher consumption of poultry or fish was not associated with risk of diverticulitis. However, the substitution of poultry or fish for one serving of unprocessed red meat per day was associated with a decrease in risk of diverticulitis (multivariable RR 0.80; 95% CI 0.63 to 0.99). Red meat intake, particularly unprocessed red meat, was associated with an increased risk of diverticulitis. The findings provide practical dietary guidance for patients at risk of diverticulitis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Tobacco control in California compared with the rest of the USA: trends in adult per capita cigarette consumption.

PubMed

Pierce, John P; Shi, Yuyan; Hendrickson, Erik M; White, Martha M; Noble, Madison L; Kealey, Sheila; Strong, David R; Trinidad, Dennis R; Hartman, Anne M; Messer, Karen

2017-11-27

In the 1990s, California led the USA in state-level tobacco control strategies. However, after 2000, California lost ground on cigarette taxes, although it maintained higher levels of smoke-free homes among smokers. Trends in per capita cigarette consumption were assessed through taxed sales data and from self-report in repeated national cross-sectional surveys. Linear regressions identified changes in trends after year 2000 separately for California and the rest of the USA. Using data from each state, a linear regression tested the association between different tobacco control strategies and per capita consumption. Change in self-reported per capita consumption was partitioned into contributions associated with initiation, quitting and reduction in cigarette consumption level. Both taxed cigarette sales and per capita consumption declined rapidly in the USA from 1985 to 2015. Declines were particularly fast in California before 2000 but slowed thereafter. In 2014, per capita consumption in California was 29.4 packs/adult/year, but 90% higher in the rest of the USA. Modelling state-level data, every $1 increase in cigarette taxes reduced consumption by 4.8 (95% CI 2.9 to 6.8) packs/adult/year. Every 5% increase in the proportion of smokers with smoke-free homes reduced consumption by 8.0 (95% CI 7.0 to 8.9) packs/adult/year. The different patterns in California and the rest of the USA are at least partially explained by these two variables. The slow down in per capita consumption in California can be attributed to changes in initiation, quitting and especially smokers reducing their consumption level. Tobacco control strategies need to be continually updated to maintain momentum towards a smoke-free society. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Waterfowl Conservation in the US Prairie Pothole Region: Confronting the Complexities of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Niemuth, Neal D.; Fleming, Kathleen K.; Reynolds, Ronald E.

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the most important waterfowl production area in North America. However, waterfowl populations there are predicted to decline because of climate-related drying of wetlands. Consequently, changes in the geographic focus of PPR waterfowl conservation have been recommended, which could have long-lasting and costly impacts. We used a 40-year dataset of pond counts collected in the PPR to test hypotheses about climate-related drying. We assessed May (1974–2013) and July (1974–2003) pond numbers in 20 waterfowl survey strata to determine if trends in pond numbers were consistent with predictions of drying. We also assessed trends in precipitation and temperature for the 20 strata and developed models describing May pond numbers from 1974 through 2010 as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year’s pond numbers, and location. None of the 20 strata showed significant declines in May pond numbers, although seven strata showed increases over time. July pond numbers declined significantly in one stratum, and increased in seven strata. An index to hydroperiod showed significant increasing trends in three strata, and no strata had decreasing trends. Precipitation increased significantly in two strata and decreased in two from 1974 to 2010; no strata showed significant changes in temperature. The best linear model described pond numbers within all strata as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year’s pond numbers, and the latitude and longitude of the stratum, and explained 62% of annual variation in pond numbers. We hypothesize that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands. We recommend that an adaptive, data-driven approach be used to resolve uncertainties regarding direct and indirect effects of climate change on prairie wetlands and waterfowl, and guide future conservation efforts. PMID:24937641

Waterfowl conservation in the US Prairie Pothole Region: confronting the complexities of climate change.

PubMed

Niemuth, Neal D; Fleming, Kathleen K; Reynolds, Ronald E

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is the most important waterfowl production area in North America. However, waterfowl populations there are predicted to decline because of climate-related drying of wetlands. Consequently, changes in the geographic focus of PPR waterfowl conservation have been recommended, which could have long-lasting and costly impacts. We used a 40-year dataset of pond counts collected in the PPR to test hypotheses about climate-related drying. We assessed May (1974-2013) and July (1974-2003) pond numbers in 20 waterfowl survey strata to determine if trends in pond numbers were consistent with predictions of drying. We also assessed trends in precipitation and temperature for the 20 strata and developed models describing May pond numbers from 1974 through 2010 as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and location. None of the 20 strata showed significant declines in May pond numbers, although seven strata showed increases over time. July pond numbers declined significantly in one stratum, and increased in seven strata. An index to hydroperiod showed significant increasing trends in three strata, and no strata had decreasing trends. Precipitation increased significantly in two strata and decreased in two from 1974 to 2010; no strata showed significant changes in temperature. The best linear model described pond numbers within all strata as a function of precipitation, temperature, the previous year's pond numbers, and the latitude and longitude of the stratum, and explained 62% of annual variation in pond numbers. We hypothesize that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands. We recommend that an adaptive, data-driven approach be used to resolve uncertainties regarding direct and indirect effects of climate change on prairie wetlands and waterfowl, and guide future conservation efforts.

Footprint and imprint: an ecologic time-trend analysis of cardiovascular publications in general and specialty journals.

PubMed

Baldridge, Abigail S; Huffman, Mark D; Bloomfield, Gerald S; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

2014-06-01

Studies have demonstrated strong associations between publication source and citations, as well as investigatory analysis of collaboration effects, in general and medical literature, but are limited to specific journals or short duration of time. This study sought to analyze time trends in cardiovascular research publications in leading general and specialty journals and to determine the association between collaboration and citation index. Cardiovascular publications were retrieved from Web of Knowledge by a cardiovascular bibliometric filter, and annual publication volumes in 8 general and specialty journals were compared. Univariable linear regression models were used to determine global and journal-specific trends for overall publication, cardiovascular publication, proportion of cardiovascular publication, collaboration, and citations. Cardiovascular publications increased (1999 to 2008) by 36% and number of sources by 74%. Volume increased in European Heart Journal (beta: 18.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.6 to 26.3) and decreased in Circulation (beta: -42.9, 95% CI: -79.3 to -6.5), Annals of Internal Medicine (beta: -1.9, 95% CI: -3.5 to -0.3), and Lancet (beta: -11.2, 95% CI: -14.7 to -7.8). Number of contributing countries increased in 3 journals: BMJ (beta: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.2 to 1.5), European Heart Journal (beta: -1.2, 95% CI: 0.8 to 1.7), and New England Journal of Medicine (beta: 1.6, 95% CI: 0.6 to 2.7). Fraction of collaborative publications increased (beta: 1.1 to 2.9) in all but Annals of Internal Medicine. Collaboration was associated with a higher median actual citation index (p < 0.0001). We found increasing trends in collaboration and citation in both general and specialty journals. Contribution by country in selected journals was disproportionate and under-represents total cardiovascular research in low- and middle-income countries. Copyright © 2014 World Heart Federation (Geneva). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Health Extension Program and Its Association with Change in Utilization of Selected Maternal Health Services in Tigray Region, Ethiopia: A Segmented Linear Regression Analysis

PubMed Central

Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Gebregzabher; San Sebastian, Miguel; Edin, Kerstin; Goicolea, Isabel

2015-01-01

Background In 2003, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health established the Health Extension Program (HEP), with the goal of improving access to health care and health promotion activities in rural areas of the country. This paper aims to assess the association of the HEP with improved utilization of maternal health services in Northern Ethiopia using institution-based retrospective data. Methods Average quarterly total attendances for antenatal care (ANC), delivery care (DC) and post-natal care (PNC) at health posts and health care centres were studied from 2002 to 2012. Regression analysis was applied to two models to assess whether trends were statistically significant. One model was used to estimate the level and trend changes associated with the immediate period of intervention, while changes related to the post-intervention period were estimated by the other. Results The total number of consultations for ANC, DC and PNC increased constantly, particularly after the late-intervention period. Increases were higher for ANC and PNC at health post level and for DC at health centres. A positive statistically significant upward trend was found for DC and PNC in all facilities (p<0.01). The positive trend was also present in ANC at health centres (p = 0.04), but not at health posts. Conclusion Our findings revealed an increase in the use of antenatal, delivery and post-natal care after the introduction of the HEP. We are aware that other factors, that we could not control for, might be explaining that increase. The figures for DC and PNC are however low and more needs to be done in order to increase the access to the health care system as well as the demand for these services by the population. Strengthening of the health information system in the region needs also to be prioritized. PMID:26218074

The Health Extension Program and Its Association with Change in Utilization of Selected Maternal Health Services in Tigray Region, Ethiopia: A Segmented Linear Regression Analysis.

PubMed

Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Gebregzabher; San Sebastian, Miguel; Edin, Kerstin; Goicolea, Isabel

2015-01-01

In 2003, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health established the Health Extension Program (HEP), with the goal of improving access to health care and health promotion activities in rural areas of the country. This paper aims to assess the association of the HEP with improved utilization of maternal health services in Northern Ethiopia using institution-based retrospective data. Average quarterly total attendances for antenatal care (ANC), delivery care (DC) and post-natal care (PNC) at health posts and health care centres were studied from 2002 to 2012. Regression analysis was applied to two models to assess whether trends were statistically significant. One model was used to estimate the level and trend changes associated with the immediate period of intervention, while changes related to the post-intervention period were estimated by the other. The total number of consultations for ANC, DC and PNC increased constantly, particularly after the late-intervention period. Increases were higher for ANC and PNC at health post level and for DC at health centres. A positive statistically significant upward trend was found for DC and PNC in all facilities (p<0.01). The positive trend was also present in ANC at health centres (p = 0.04), but not at health posts. Our findings revealed an increase in the use of antenatal, delivery and post-natal care after the introduction of the HEP. We are aware that other factors, that we could not control for, might be explaining that increase. The figures for DC and PNC are however low and more needs to be done in order to increase the access to the health care system as well as the demand for these services by the population. Strengthening of the health information system in the region needs also to be prioritized.

Trends in spawning populations of Pacific anadromous salmonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konkel, G.W.; McIntyre, J.D.

1987-01-01

Annual escapement records for 1968-1984 for five species of Pacific salmon-chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), coho (O. kisutch), sockeye (O. nerka), pink (O. gorbuscha), and chum (O. keta)—and steelhead (Salmo gairdneri) were obtained from published and unpublished sources and organized in a computer database. More than 25,500 escapement records were obtained for more than 1,100 locations throughout Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California. Escapement trends for naturally reproducing populations for which data were available for at least 7 years from 1968 to 1984 and at least 4 years from 1975 to 1984 were analyzed by linear regression. Significant trends were observed in about 30% of the 886 populations examined. Trends were summarized by species for three geographic regions in Alaska and four in the Pacific Northwest (including California). For chinook, sockeye, and pink salmon, trends were predominantly increasing in the Alaska regions and either lacking or predominantly decreasing in most of the Pacific Northwest regions; for coho and chum salmon, trends were predominantly decreasing in one or more Alaska regions as well as in most of the Pacific Northwest regions. For steelhead, too few populations were examined to enable us to characterize trends throughout their range. Among the 657 salmonid populations excluded from the trend analysis because the data sets were incomplete, 13 (of which 2 were in Alaska) declined to zero during the period of analysis. For coho, sockeye, pink, and chum salmon and steelhead, major data gaps were revealed by a comparison of the geographic distribution of escapement records with the spawning distribution of the species. For chinook salmon, escapement records were more geographically representative of the spawning distribution.

Expanding Antarctic Sea Ice: Anthropogenic or Natural Variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bitz, C. M.

2016-12-01

Antarctic sea ice extent has increased over the last 36 years according to the satellite record. Concurrent with Antarctic sea-ice expansion has been broad cooling of the Southern Ocean sea-surface temperature. Not only are Southern Ocean sea ice and SST trends at odds with expectations from greenhouse gas-induced warming, the trend patterns are not reproduced in historical simulations with comprehensive global climate models. While a variety of different factors may have contributed to the observed trends in recent decades, we propose that it is atmospheric circulation changes - and the changes in ocean circulation they induce - that have emerged as the most likely cause of the observed Southern Ocean sea ice and SST trends. I will discuss deficiencies in models that could explain their incorrect response. In addition, I will present results from a series of experiments where the Antarctic sea ice and ocean are forced by atmospheric perturbations imposed within a coupled climate model. Figure caption: Linear trends of annual-mean SST (left) and annual-mean sea-ice concentration (right) over 1980-2014. SST is from NOAA's Optimum Interpolation SST dataset (version 2; Reynolds et al. 2002). Sea-ice concentration is from passive microwave observations using the NASA Team algorithm. Only the annual means are shown here for brevity and because the signal to noise is greater than in the seasonal means. Figure from Armour and Bitz (2015).

Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long‐term trends and variations

PubMed Central

Stips, A.; Garcia‐Gorriz, E.; Macias Moy, D.

2017-01-01

Abstract The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure. The simulations suggest that the intermediate layer temperature is characterized by a weak positive trend (warming), whereas the surface temperature does not show a clear linear trend. Different salinity trends have been established at the surface (negative), upper (weaker negative) and main halocline (positive). Three distinct dynamic periods are identified (1960–1970, 1970–1995, 1995–2015), which exhibit pronounced changes in the Black Sea's thermohaline properties and basin circulation. Strengthening of the main cyclonic circulation, accompanied by intensification of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation is found. Both events strongly affect the sea surface salinity but contribute in opposing directions. Specifically, strong composite large‐scale circulation leads to an increase in sea surface salinity, while enhanced formation of mesoscale anticyclones decreases it. Salinity evolution with time is thus the result of the competition of these two opposing yet interdependent processes. PMID:28989833

Trends in job satisfaction among German nurses from 1990 to 2012.

PubMed

Alameddine, Mohamad; Bauer, Jan Michael; Richter, Martin; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

2016-04-01

Improving the job satisfaction of nurses is essential to enhance their productivity and retention and to improve patient care. Our aim was to analyse trends in German nurses' job satisfaction to enhance understanding of the nursing labour market and inform future policies. We used 1990-2012 German Socioeconomic Panel data for trends in nurses' job satisfaction. Comparisons were drawn with doctors, other health care workers, and employees in other sectors of employment. Analysis explored associations between job satisfaction trends and other aspects of employment, such as whether full time or part time and pay. To account for fluctuations across the period of analysis, linear trends were generated using ordinary least squares. Over 23 years, job satisfaction of German nurses underwent a steady and gradual decline, dropping by an average 7.5%, whereas that of doctors and other health care workers increased by 14.4% and 1%, respectively. The decline for part-time nurses (13%) was more pronounced than that for full-time nurses (3%). At the same time, nurses' pay rose by only 3.8% compared to a 23.8% increase for doctors. The steady decline in nurses' job satisfaction over the last two decades may be attributable to the multiple reforms and associated policy changes that generally disadvantaged nurses. Contributing factors to job satisfaction decline include lower pay and the demanding and strenuous work environment. Irrespective of the reason, health services researchers, leaders, and policy makers should investigate the reasons for this decline given the forecast growth in work load and complexity of care. Supportive policies for nurses would help enhance the quality and sustainability of German health care. © The Author(s) 2015.

Trends in Special Education Eligibility Among Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder, 2002-2010.

PubMed

Rubenstein, Eric; Daniels, Julie; Schieve, Laura A; Christensen, Deborah L; Van Naarden Braun, Kim; Rice, Catherine E; Bakian, Amanda V; Durkin, Maureen S; Rosenberg, Steven A; Kirby, Russell S; Lee, Li-Ching

Although data on publicly available special education are informative and offer a glimpse of trends in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and use of educational services, using these data for population-based public health monitoring has drawbacks. Our objective was to evaluate trends in special education eligibility among 8-year-old children with ASD identified in the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network. We used data from 5 Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network sites (Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Maryland, and North Carolina) during 4 surveillance years (2002, 2006, 2008, and 2010) and compared trends in 12 categories of special education eligibility by sex and race/ethnicity. We used multivariable linear risk regressions to evaluate how the proportion of children with a given eligibility changed over time. Of 6010 children with ASD, more than 36% did not receive an autism eligibility in special education in each surveillance year. From surveillance year 2002 to surveillance year 2010, autism eligibility increased by 3.6 percentage points ( P = .09), and intellectual disability eligibility decreased by 4.6 percentage points ( P < .001). A greater proportion of boys than girls had an autism eligibility in 2002 (56.3% vs 48.8%). Compared with other racial/ethnic groups, Hispanic children had the largest increase in proportion with autism eligibility from 2002 to 2010 (15.4%, P = .005) and the largest decrease in proportion with intellectual disability (-14.3%, P = .004). Although most children with ASD had autism eligibility, many received special education services under other categories, and racial/ethnic disparities persisted. To monitor trends in ASD prevalence, public health officials need access to comprehensive data collected systematically, not just special education eligibility.

Variability of temperature properties over Kenya based on observed and reanalyzed datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Gao, Chujie; Sagero, Phillip Obaigwa

2017-08-01

Updated information on trends of climate extremes is central in the assessment of climate change impacts. This work examines the trends in mean, diurnal temperature range (DTR), maximum and minimum temperatures, 1951-2012 and the recent (1981-2010) extreme temperature events over Kenya. The study utilized daily observed and reanalyzed monthly mean, minimum, and maximum temperature datasets. The analysis was carried out based on a set of nine indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The trend of the mean and the extreme temperature was determined using Mann-Kendall rank test, linear regression analysis, and Sen's slope estimator. December-February (DJF) season records high temperature while June-August (JJA) experiences the least temperature. The observed rate of warming is + 0.15 °C/decade. However, DTR does not show notable annual trend. Both seasons show an overall warming trend since the early 1970s with abrupt and significant changes happening around the early 1990s. The warming is more significant in the highland regions as compared to their lowland counterparts. There is increase variance in temperature. The percentage of warm days and warm nights is observed to increase, a further affirmation of warming. This work is a synoptic scale study that exemplifies how seasonal and decadal analyses, together with the annual assessments, are important in the understanding of the temperature variability which is vital in vulnerability and adaptation studies at a local/regional scale. However, following the quality of observed data used herein, there remains need for further studies on the subject using longer and more data to avoid generalizations made in this study.

Using earthquake clusters to identify fracture zones at Puna geothermal field, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, A.; Shalev, E.; Malin, P.; Kenedi, C. L.

2010-12-01

The actively producing Puna geothermal system (PGS) is located on the Kilauea East Rift Zone (ERZ), which extends out from the active Kilauea volcano on Hawaii. In the Puna area the rift trend is identified as NE-SW from surface expressions of normal faulting with a corresponding strike; at PGS the surface expression offsets in a left step, but no rift perpendicular faulting is observed. An eight station borehole seismic network has been installed in the area of the geothermal system. Since June 2006, a total of 6162 earthquakes have been located close to or inside the geothermal system. The spread of earthquake locations follows the rift trend, but down rift to the NE of PGS almost no earthquakes are observed. Most earthquakes located within the PGS range between 2-3 km depth. Up rift to the SW of PGS the number of events decreases and the depth range increases to 3-4 km. All initial locations used Hypoinverse71 and showed no trends other than the dominant rift parallel. Double difference relocation of all earthquakes, using both catalog and cross-correlation, identified one large cluster but could not conclusively identify trends within the cluster. A large number of earthquake waveforms showed identifiable shear wave splitting. For five stations out of the six where shear wave splitting was observed, the dominant polarization direction was rift parallel. Two of the five stations also showed a smaller rift perpendicular signal. The sixth station (located close to the area of the rift offset) displayed a N-S polarization, approximately halfway between rift parallel and perpendicular. The shear wave splitting time delays indicate that fracture density is higher at the PGS compared to the surrounding ERZ. Correlation co-efficient clustering with independent P and S wave windows was used to identify clusters based on similar earthquake waveforms. In total, 40 localized clusters containing ten or more events were identified. The largest cluster was located in the production area for the power plant. Most of the clusters had linear features when their Hypoinverse locations were plotted. The concentration of individual linear features was higher in the PGS than the surrounding ERZ. The resolution of the features was resolved further by relocating each individual cluster through the catalog double difference method. Mapping of the linear features showed that a number of the larger features ran rift parallel. However a large number of rift perpendicular features were also identified. In the area where the anomalous (N-S) shear wave polarization was observed, a number of linear features with a similar orientation were identified. We assume that events occurring on the same fracture zone have similar source mechanisms and thus similar waveforms. It is concluded that the linear features identified by earthquake clustering are fracture zones. The orientation and concentration of the fracture zones is consistent with that of the shear wave splitting polarizations.

Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

PubMed

Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

2016-09-01

Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (p<0.005). The proportion of movies depicting tobacco consumption during the three decades was 36% (1982-1991), 60% (1992-2001) and 74% (2002-2011), respectively. The average proportion of total movie time for these depictions (0.75%, 1.41%, 2.08%) increased significantly (p<0.005) over the 3 decades as did the average duration of smoking depictions,(39.1, 67 and 99.3 s, respectively, p<0.005). The significant increase in the proportion of movies depicting tobacco consumption and in the duration of smoking depictions over the past 30 years underscores the need for increased regulation of the Iranian film industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Changes in Plasma Lipids during Exposure to Total Sleep Deprivation.

PubMed

Chua, Eric Chern-Pin; Shui, Guanghou; Cazenave-Gassiot, Amaury; Wenk, Markus R; Gooley, Joshua J

2015-11-01

The effects of sleep loss on plasma lipids, which play an important role in energy homeostasis and signaling, have not been systematically examined. Our aim was to identify lipid species in plasma that increase or decrease reliably during exposure to total sleep deprivation. Twenty individuals underwent sleep deprivation in a laboratory setting. Blood was drawn every 4 h and mass spectrometry techniques were used to analyze concentrations of 263 lipid species in plasma, including glycerolipids, glycerophospholipids, sphingolipids, and sterols. Chronobiology and Sleep Laboratory, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School. Healthy ethnic-Chinese males aged 21-28 y (n = 20). Subjects were kept awake for 40 consecutive hours. Each metabolite time series was modeled as a sum of sinusoidal (circadian) and linear components, and we assessed whether the slope of the linear component differed from zero. More than a third of all individually analyzed lipid profiles exhibited a circadian rhythm and/or a linear change in concentration during sleep deprivation. Twenty-five lipid species showed a linear and predominantly unidirectional trend in concentration levels that was consistent across participants. Choline plasmalogen levels decreased, whereas several phosphatidylcholine (PC) species and triacylglycerides (TAG) carrying polyunsaturated fatty acids increased. The decrease in choline plasmalogen levels during sleep deprivation is consistent with prior work demonstrating that these lipids are susceptible to degradation by oxidative stress. The increase in phosphatidylcholines and triacylglycerides suggests that sleep loss might modulate lipid metabolism, which has potential implications for metabolic health in individuals who do not achieve adequate sleep. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

A Temporal Association between Accumulated Petrol (Gasoline) Lead Emissions and Motor Neuron Disease in Australia

PubMed Central

Laidlaw, Mark A. S.; Rowe, Dominic B.; Ball, Andrew S.; Mielke, Howard W.

2015-01-01

Background: The age standardised death rate from motor neuron disease (MND) has increased from 1.29 to 2.74 per 100,000, an increase of 112.4% between 1959 and 2013. It is clear that genetics could not have played a causal role in the increased rate of MND deaths over such a short time span. We postulate that environmental factors are responsible for this rate increase. We focus on lead additives in Australian petrol as a possible contributing environmental factor. Methods: The associations between historical petrol lead emissions and MND death trends in Australia between 1962 and 2013 were examined using linear regressions. Results: Regression results indicate best fit correlations between a 20 year lag of petrol lead emissions and age-standardised female death rate (R2 = 0.86, p = 4.88 × 10−23), male age standardised death rate (R2 = 0.86, p = 9.4 × 10−23) and percent all cause death attributed to MND (R2 = 0.98, p = 2.6 × 10−44). Conclusion: Legacy petrol lead emissions are associated with increased MND death trends in Australia. Further examination of the 20 year lag between exposure to petrol lead and the onset of MND is warranted. PMID:26703636