Sample records for indc
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Temporal and spatial distribution of global mitigation cost: INDCs and equity
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Jing-Yu; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko
2016-11-01
Each country’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) pledges an emission target for 2025 or 2030. Here, we evaluated the INDC inter-generational and inter-regional equity by comparing scenarios with INDC emissions target in 2030 and with an immediate emission reduction associated with a global uniform carbon price using Asian-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium. Both scenarios eventually achieve 2 °C target. The results showed that, as compared with an immediate emission reduction scenario, the inter-generational equity status is not favorable for INDC scenario and the future generation suffers more from delayed mitigation. Moreover, this conclusion was robust to the wide range of inequality aversion parameter that determines discount rate. On the other hand, the INDC scenario has better inter-regional equity in the early part of the century than does the immediate emission reduction scenario in which we assume a global carbon price during the period up to 2030. However, inter-regional equity worsens later in the century. The additional emissions reduction to the INDC in 2030 would improve both inter- and inter-regional equity as compared to the current INDC. We also suggest that countries should commit to more emissions reductions in the follow-up INDC communications and that continuous consideration for low-income countries is needed for global climate change cooperation after 2030.
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Assessing the INDCs' land use, land use change, and forest emission projections.
Forsell, Nicklas; Turkovska, Olga; Gusti, Mykola; Obersteiner, Michael; Elzen, Michel den; Havlik, Petr
2016-12-01
In preparation for the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, Parties submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressing each countries' respective post-2020 climate actions. In this paper we assess individual Parties' expected reduction of emissions/removals from land use, land use change, and forest (LULUCF) sector for reaching their INDC target, and the aggregate global effect on the INDCs on the future development of emission and removals from the LULUCF sector. This has been done through analysis Parties' official information concerning the role of LULUCF mitigation efforts for reaching INDC targets as presented in National Communications, Biennial Update Reports, and Additional file 1. On the aggregate global level, the Parties themselves perceive that net LULUCF emissions will increase over time. Overall, the net LULUCF emissions are estimated to increase by 0.6 Gt CO 2 e year -1 (range: 0.1-1.1) in 2020 and 1.3 Gt CO 2 e year -1 (range: 0.7-2.1) in 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. On the other hand, the full implementation of the INDCs is estimated to lead to a reduction of net LULUCF emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels. It is estimated that if all conditional and unconditional INDCs are implemented, net LULUCF emissions would decrease by 0.5 Gt CO 2 e year -1 (range: 0.2-0.8) by 2020 and 0.9 Gt CO 2 e year -1 (range: 0.5-1.3) by 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. The largest absolute reductions of net LULUCF emissions (compared to 2010 levels) are expected from Indonesia and Brazil, followed by China and Ethiopia. The results highlights that countries are expecting a significant contribution from the LULUCF sector to meet their INDC mitigation targets. At the global level, the LULUCF sector is expected to contribute to as much as 20% of the full mitigation potential of all the conditional and unconditional INDC targets. However, large uncertainties still surround how Parties estimate, project and account for emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector. While INDCs represent a new source of land-use information, further information and updates of the INDCs will be required to reduce uncertainty of the LULUCF projections.
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The contribution of Paris to limit global warming to 2 °C
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iyer, Gokul C.; Edmonds, James A.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Hultman, Nathan E.; Alsalam, Jameel; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Creason, Jared; Jeong, Minji; Kyle, Page; McFarland, James; Mundra, Anupriya; Patel, Pralit; Shi, Wenjing; McJeon, Haewon C.
2015-12-01
The international community has set a goal to limit global warming to 2 °C. Limiting global warming to 2 °C is a challenging goal and will entail a dramatic transformation of the global energy system, largely complete by 2040. As part of the work toward this goal, countries have been submitting their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, indicating their emissions reduction commitments through 2025 or 2030, in advance of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris in December 2015. In this paper, we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to analyze the near versus long-term energy and economic-cost implications of these INDCs. The INDCs imply near-term actions that reduce the level of mitigation needed in the post-2030 period, particularly when compared with an alternative path in which nations are unable to undertake emissions mitigation until after 2030. We find that the latter case could require up to 2300 GW of premature retirements of fossil fuel power plants and up to 2900 GW of additional low-carbon power capacity installations within a five-year period of 2031-2035. INDCs have the effect of reducing premature retirements and new-capacity installations after 2030 by 50% and 34%, respectively. However, if presently announced INDCs were strengthened to achieve greater near-term emissions mitigation, the 2031-2035 transformation could be tempered to require 84% fewer premature retirements of power generation capacity and 56% fewer new-capacity additions. Our results suggest that the INDCs delivered for COP21 in Paris will have important contributions in reducing the challenges of achieving the goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C.
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Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C.
Rogelj, Joeri; den Elzen, Michel; Höhne, Niklas; Fransen, Taryn; Fekete, Hanna; Winkler, Harald; Schaeffer, Roberto; Sha, Fu; Riahi, Keywan; Meinshausen, Malte
2016-06-30
The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.
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Paris INDCs: will they achieve the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tribett, W. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Hope, A. P.; Bennett, B.; Canty, T. P.
2016-12-01
We provide an overview of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted prior to the 21st meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which are the backbone of the Paris Climate Agreement. Two flavors of INDCs were submitted: unconditional (i.e., firm commitments) and conditional (commitments contingent on financial flow and/or technology transfer). Generally, the Paris INDCs extend to year 2030. However, achievement of either the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °C warming) of the Paris Agreement requires consideration of emissions out to 2060, due to the projected rise in energy demand, growing populations, and rising standards of living. We therefore project global carbon emissions out to year 2060, and compare to various RCP scenarios of IPCC (2013). These projections will be used to assess whether the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °) of the Paris Climate Agreement will be met.
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The contribution of Paris to limit global warming to 2 °C
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Iyer, Gokul C.; Edmonds, James A.; Fawcett, Allen A.
International negotiators have clearly articulated a goal to limit global warming to 2°C. In preparation for the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21) in Paris in December 2015, countries are submitting their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change indicating their emissions reduction commitments through 2025 or 2030. Limiting global warming to 2°C is a challenging goal and will entail a dramatic transformation of the global energy system, largely complete by 2040. The deliberations in Paris will help determine the balance of challenges faced in the near-term and long-term. We use GCAM, a globalmore » integrated assessment model, to analyze the energy and economic-cost implications of INDCs. The INDCs imply near-term actions that reduce the level of mitigation needed in the post-2030 period, particularly when compared with an alternative path, in which nations are unable to undertake emissions mitigation until after 2030. We find that the latter case could require up to 2300 GW of premature retirements of fossil fuel power plants and up to 2900 GW of additional low-carbon power capacity installations within a five-year period of 2031 to 2035. INDCs have the effect of reducing premature retirements and new-capacity installations after 2030 by 50% and 34% respectively. However, if presently announced INDCs were strengthened to achieve greater near-term emissions mitigation, the 2031-2035 transformation could be tempered to require 84% fewer premature retirements of power generation capacity and 56% fewer new-capacity additions. Our results suggest that the ensuing COP21 in Paris will be critical in shaping the challenges of limiting global warming to 2°C.« less
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Assessment of the potential REDD+ as a new international support measure for GHG reduction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Y.; Ahn, J.; Kim, H.
2016-12-01
As part of the Paris Agreement, the mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has high potential to simultaneously contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation through forest conservation and poverty alleviation. Some of 162 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by 189 countries representing approximately 98.8% of global GHG emissions include not only unconditional mitigation goals but also conditional goals based on the condition of the provision of international support such as finance, technology transfer and capacity building. Considering REDD+ as one of the main mechanisms to support such work, this study selected ten countries from among Korea's 24 ODA priority partners, taking into consideration their conditional INDC targets alongside sectoral quantified targets such as land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). The ten selected countries are Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Senegal, Colombia, Peru and Paraguay. Of these countries, most REDD+ projects have been conducted in Indonesia mainly due to the fact that 85% of the country's total GHG emissions are caused by forest conversion and peatland degradation. Therefore, GHG reduction rates and associated projected costs of the Indonesia's REDD+ projects were analyzed in order to offer guidance on the potential of REDD+ to contribute to other INDCs' conditional goals. The result showed that about 0.9 t CO2 ha-1 could be reduced at a cost of USD 23 per year. Applying this estimation to the Cambodian case, which has submitted a conditional INDC target of increasing its forest coverage by 60% (currently 57%) by 2030, suggests that financial support of USD 12.8 million would reduce CO2 emissions by about 5.1 million tones by increasing forest coverage. As there is currently no consideration of LULUCF in Cambodia's INDC, this result represents the opportunity for an additional contribution to achieving the country's conditional mitigation goals.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vrontisi, Zoi; Luderer, Gunnar; Saveyn, Bert; Keramidas, Kimon; Reis Lara, Aleluia; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bertram, Christoph; Sytze de Boer, Harmen; Drouet, Laurent; Fragkiadakis, Kostas; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Guivarch, Celine; Kitous, Alban; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Broin, Eoin Ó.; Paroussos, Leonidas; van Vuuren, Detlef
2018-04-01
The Paris Agreement is a milestone in international climate policy as it establishes a global mitigation framework towards 2030 and sets the ground for a potential 1.5 °C climate stabilization. To provide useful insights for the 2018 UNFCCC Talanoa facilitative dialogue, we use eight state-of-the-art climate-energy-economy models to assess the effectiveness of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in meeting high probability 1.5 and 2 °C stabilization goals. We estimate that the implementation of conditional INDCs in 2030 leaves an emissions gap from least cost 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways for year 2030 equal to 15.6 (9.0–20.3) and 24.6 (18.5–29.0) GtCO2eq respectively. The immediate transition to a more efficient and low-carbon energy system is key to achieving the Paris goals. The decarbonization of the power supply sector delivers half of total CO2 emission reductions in all scenarios, primarily through high penetration of renewables and energy efficiency improvements. In combination with an increased electrification of final energy demand, low-carbon power supply is the main short-term abatement option. We find that the global macroeconomic cost of mitigation efforts does not reduce the 2020–2030 annual GDP growth rates in any model more than 0.1 percentage points in the INDC or 0.3 and 0.5 in the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios respectively even without accounting for potential co-benefits and avoided climate damages. Accordingly, the median GDP reductions across all models in 2030 are 0.4%, 1.2% and 3.3% of reference GDP for each respective scenario. Costs go up with increasing mitigation efforts but a fragmented action, as implied by the INDCs, results in higher costs per unit of abated emissions. On a regional level, the cost distribution is different across scenarios while fossil fuel exporters see the highest GDP reductions in all INDC, 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios.
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Database of prompt gamma rays from slow neutron capture forelemental analysis
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Firestone, R.B.; Choi, H.D.; Lindstrom, R.M.
2004-12-31
The increasing importance of Prompt Gamma-ray ActivationAnalysis (PGAA) in a broad range of applications is evident, and has beenemphasized at many meetings related to this topic (e.g., TechnicalConsultants' Meeting, Use of neutron beams for low- andmedium-fluxresearch reactors: radiography and materialscharacterizations, IAEA Vienna, 4-7 May 1993, IAEA-TECDOC-837, 1993).Furthermore, an Advisory Group Meeting (AGM) for the Coordination of theNuclear Structure and Decay Data Evaluators Network has stated that thereis a need for a complete and consistent library of cold- and thermalneutron capture gammaray and cross-section data (AGM held at Budapest,14-18 October 1996, INDC(NDS)-363); this AGM also recommended theorganization of an IAEA CRPmore » on the subject. The International NuclearData Committee (INDC) is the primary advisory body to the IAEA NuclearData Section on their nuclear data programmes. At a biennial meeting in1997, the INDC strongly recommended that the Nuclear Data Section supportnew measurements andupdate the database on Neutron-induced PromptGamma-ray Activation Analysis (21st INDC meeting, INDC/P(97)-20). As aconsequence of the various recommendations, a CRP on "Development of aDatabase for Prompt Gamma-ray Neutron Activation Analysis (PGAA)" wasinitiated in 1999. Prior to this project, several consultants had definedthe scope, objectives and tasks, as approved subsequently by the IAEA.Each CRP participant assumed responsibility for the execution of specifictasks. The results of their and other research work were discussed andapproved by the participants in research co-ordination meetings (seeSummary reports: INDC(NDS)-411, 2000; INDC(NDS)-424, 2001; andINDC(NDS)-443, 200). PGAA is a non-destructive radioanalytical method,capable of rapid or simultaneous "in-situ" multi-element analyses acrossthe entire Periodic Table, from hydrogen to uranium. However, inaccurateand incomplete data were a significant hindrance in the qualitative andquantitative analysis of complicated capture-gamma spectra by means ofPGAA. Therefore, the main goal of the CRP was to improve the quality andquantity of the required data in order to make possible the reliableapplication of PGAA in fields such as materials science, chemistry,geology, mining, archaeology, environment, food analysis and medicine.This aim wasachieved thanks to the dedicated work and effort of theparticipants. The CD-ROM included with this publication contains thedatabase, the retrieval system, the three CRM reports, and otherimportant electronic documents related to the CRP. The IAEA wishes tothanks all CRP participants who contributed to the success of the CRP andthe formulation of this publication. Special thanks are due to R.B.Firestone for his leading roll in the development of this CRP and hiscomprehensive compilation, analysis and provision of the adopteddatabase, and to V. Zerkin for the software developments associatedwiththe retrieval system. An essential component of this data compilation isthe extensive sets of new measurements of capture gamma-ray energies andintensities undertaken at Budapest by Zs. Revay under the direction ofG.L. Molnar. The extensive participation and assistance of H.D. Choi isalso greatly appreciated. Other participants inthis CRP were: R.M.Lindstrom, S.M. Mughabghab, A.V.R. Reddy, V.H. Tan and C.M. Zhou. Thanksare also due to S.C. Frankle and M.A. Lone for their active participationas consultants at some of the meetings. Finally, the participants wish tothank R. Paviotti-Corcuera (Nuclear Data Section, Division of Physicaland Chemical Sciences), who was the IAEA responsible officer for the CRP,this publication and the resulting database. The participants aregrateful to D.L. Muir and A.L. Nichols, successive Heads of the NuclearData Section, for their active and enthusiastic encouragement infurthering the work of the CRP.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Augustin, C. M.
2015-12-01
As the 2015 Paris climate talks near, policy discussions are focused on "intended nationally determined contributions" (INDCs) submitted in advance of the discussions. As the major global emitters - specifically the United States and China - have already submitted their INDCs, we have a point of comparison for evaluating the relative potential impacts of the proposed targets. By applying integrated assessment models to robust, publicly available data sets,we aim to evaluate the interplay between climate change and economic development, comment on emissions reduction scenarios in cooperative and non-cooperative situations, and assess the dynamic risks of multiple regional emissions scenarios. We use both the RICE model and the C-ROADS model to examine alternative regional outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages,under different reduction scenarios, including a scenario where geo-engineering plays a prominent role. These simulators allow us to vary emissions, population, and economic levels in China and the United States specifically to comment on the international climate risk impact of actors working jointly - or not - toward a global climate goal. In a complementary piece of analysis we seek to understand the value judgments, trade-offs, and regional policies that would lead to favorable climate finance flows. To reach an international sample of industry decision-makers, we propose a novel application of a standard discrete-choice survey methodology. A conjoint analysis requires a participant to chose between combinations of attributes and identify trade-offs while allowing the researcher to determine the relative importance of each individual attribute by mathematically assessing the impact each attribute could have on total item utility. As climate policy negotiations will consist of allocation of scarce resources and rejection of certain attributes, a conjoint analysis is an ideal tool for evaluating policy outcomes. This research program seeks to provide a commentary useful to policy makers on the most desirable outcomes of the negotiations and other international cooperation.
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What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sanderson, Benjamin M.; O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia
2016-07-01
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5°C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net -5 Gt CO2/yr, compared with -1.5 Gt CO2/yr in RCP2.6). More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2°C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2°C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5°C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50 year overshoot of 1.5°C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060.
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What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sanderson, Benjamin M.; O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia
Here, the 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5°C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net –5 Gt CO 2/yr, compared with –1.5 Gt CO 2/yr in RCP2.6).more » More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2°C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2°C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5°C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50 year overshoot of 1.5°C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060.« less
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What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?
Sanderson, Benjamin M.; O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia
2016-06-27
Here, the 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5°C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net –5 Gt CO 2/yr, compared with –1.5 Gt CO 2/yr in RCP2.6).more » More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2°C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2°C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5°C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50 year overshoot of 1.5°C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Stone, N. J., E-mail: n.stone@physics.ox.ac.uk
The most recent tabulations of nuclear magnetic dipole and electric quadrupole moments have been prepared and published by the Nuclear Data Section of the IAEA, Vienna [N. J. Stone, Report No. INDC(NDS)-0650 (2013); Report No. INDC(NDS)-0658 (2014)]. The first of these is a table of recommended quadrupole moments for all isotopes in which all experimental results are made consistent with a limited number of adopted standards for each element; the second is a combined listing of all measurements of both moments. Both tables cover all isotopes and energy levels. In this paper, the considerations relevant to the preparation of bothmore » tables are described, together with observations as to the importance and (where appropriate) application of necessary corrections to achieve the “best” values. Some discussion of experimental methods is included with emphasis on their precision. The aim of the published quadrupole moment table is to provide a standard reference in which the value given for each moment is the best available and for which full provenance is given. A table of recommended magnetic dipole moments is in preparation, with the same objective in view.« less
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Effect of Anti-Hepatotoxic Agents Against Microcystin-LR Toxicity in Cultured Rat Hepatocytes
1989-01-10
mechanisms of both agents against microcystin-LR indced toxicosis. Toxins such as acetaminophen, N-acetyl-p-benzoquinone, bromobenzeiv, dicoumarol, menadione ...ORRENIUS, S. (1984). Menadione -imduced cytoxicity is associated with protein thiol oxidation and alteration in intracellular Ca+ 2 homeostasis. Arch...G. AND ORRENIUS, S. (1985). inhibition of hepatocyte plasma membrane Ca+ 2-ATPase activity by menadione metabolism and its restoration by thiols
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zheng, T.
2015-12-01
A goal of carbon (C) emission peaking around 2030 of China was declared in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change, and emphasized in China's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Here, we predicted the carbon emission of China during the period 2011~2050 under seven scenarios, and analyzed the scientific and social implications of realizing the goal. Our results showed that: (1) C emissions of China will reach their peaks at 2022~2045 (with peak values 3.15~5.10 Pg C), and the predicted decay rates of C intensity were 2.1~4.2% in 2011~2050; (2) the precondition that the national C emission reaches the peak before 2030 is that the annual decay rates of C intensity must exceed 3.3% , as decay rates under different scenarios were predicted higher than that except for Past G8 scenario; (3) the national C emission would reach the peak before 2030, if the government of China should realize the C emissions reduction goals of China's 12th five-year plan, climate commitments of Copenhagen and INDC; (4) Chinese government could realize the goal of C emission peaking around 2030 from just controlling C emission intensity , but associated with relatively higher government's burden. In summary, China's C emission may well peak before 2030, meanwhile the combination of emissions reduction and economic macro-control would be demanded to avoid heavier social pressure of C emissions reduction occurred.
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INDC International Nuclear Data Committee
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Nichols, A.; McCutchan, E.; Dimitriou, P.
The 22nd meeting of the International Network of Nuclear Structure and Decay Data Evaluators was convened at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, USA, from 22 to 26 May 2017 under the auspices of the IAEA Nuclear Data Section. This meeting was attended by 38 scientists from 12 Member States and the IAEA, all of whom are concerned primarily with the measurement, evaluation and dissemination of nuclear structure and decay data. A summary of the meeting, data centre reports, various proposals considered, technical discussions, actions agreed by the participants, and the resulting recommendations/conclusions are presented within this document.
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A test data compression scheme based on irrational numbers stored coding.
Wu, Hai-feng; Cheng, Yu-sheng; Zhan, Wen-fa; Cheng, Yi-fei; Wu, Qiong; Zhu, Shi-juan
2014-01-01
Test question has already become an important factor to restrict the development of integrated circuit industry. A new test data compression scheme, namely irrational numbers stored (INS), is presented. To achieve the goal of compress test data efficiently, test data is converted into floating-point numbers, stored in the form of irrational numbers. The algorithm of converting floating-point number to irrational number precisely is given. Experimental results for some ISCAS 89 benchmarks show that the compression effect of proposed scheme is better than the coding methods such as FDR, AARLC, INDC, FAVLC, and VRL.
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Quantifying the Impacts of Large Scale Integration of Renewables in Indian Power Sector
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kumar, P.; Mishra, T.; Banerjee, R.
2017-12-01
India's power sector is responsible for nearly 37 percent of India's greenhouse gas emissions. For a fast emerging economy like India whose population and energy consumption are poised to rise rapidly in the coming decades, renewable energy can play a vital role in decarbonizing power sector. In this context, India has targeted 33-35 percent emission intensity reduction (with respect to 2005 levels) along with large scale renewable energy targets (100GW solar, 60GW wind, and 10GW biomass energy by 2022) in INDCs submitted at Paris agreement. But large scale integration of renewable energy is a complex process which faces a number of problems like capital intensiveness, matching intermittent loads with least storage capacity and reliability. In this context, this study attempts to assess the technical feasibility of integrating renewables into Indian electricity mix by 2022 and analyze its implications on power sector operations. This study uses TIMES, a bottom up energy optimization model with unit commitment and dispatch features. We model coal and gas fired units discretely with region-wise representation of wind and solar resources. The dispatch features are used for operational analysis of power plant units under ramp rate and minimum generation constraints. The study analyzes India's electricity sector transition for the year 2022 with three scenarios. The base case scenario (no RE addition) along with INDC scenario (with 100GW solar, 60GW wind, 10GW biomass) and low RE scenario (50GW solar, 30GW wind) have been created to analyze the implications of large scale integration of variable renewable energy. The results provide us insights on trade-offs involved in achieving mitigation targets and investment decisions involved. The study also examines operational reliability and flexibility requirements of the system for integrating renewables.
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Teunissen, Charlotte; Menge, Til; Altintas, Ayse; Álvarez-Cermeño, José C; Bertolotto, Antonio; Berven, Frode S; Brundin, Lou; Comabella, Manuel; Degn, Matilde; Deisenhammer, Florian; Fazekas, Franz; Franciotta, Diego; Frederiksen, Jette L; Galimberti, Daniela; Gnanapavan, Sharmilee; Hegen, Harald; Hemmer, Bernhard; Hintzen, Rogier; Hughes, Steve; Iacobaeus, Ellen; Kroksveen, Ann C; Kuhle, Jens; Richert, John; Tumani, Hayrettin; Villar, Luisa M; Drulovic, Jelena; Dujmovic, Irena; Khalil, Michael; Bartos, Ales
2013-11-01
The choice of appropriate control group(s) is critical in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker research in multiple sclerosis (MS). There is a lack of definitions and nomenclature of different control groups and a rationalized application of different control groups. We here propose consensus definitions and nomenclature for the following groups: healthy controls (HCs), spinal anesthesia subjects (SASs), inflammatory neurological disease controls (INDCs), peripheral inflammatory neurological disease controls (PINDCs), non-inflammatory neurological controls (NINDCs), symptomatic controls (SCs). Furthermore, we discuss the application of these control groups in specific study designs, such as for diagnostic biomarker studies, prognostic biomarker studies and therapeutic response studies. Application of these uniform definitions will lead to better comparability of biomarker studies and optimal use of available resources. This will lead to improved quality of CSF biomarker research in MS and related disorders.
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Principles of Public Reason in the UNFCCC: Rethinking the Equity Framework.
Boran, Idil
2017-10-01
Since 2011, the focus of international negotiations under the UNFCCC has been on producing a new climate agreement to be adopted in 2015. This phase of negotiations is known as the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action. The goal has been to update the global effort on climate for long-term cooperation. In this period, various changes have been contemplated on the design of the architecture of the global climate effort. Whereas previously, the negotiation process consisted of setting mandated targets exclusively for developed countries, the current setting requests of each country to pledge its contribution to the climate effort in the form of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). The shift away from establishing negotiated targets for rich countries alone towards a universal system of participation through intended contributions raised persistent questions on how exactly the new agreement can ensure equitable terms. How to conceptualize equity within the 2015 climate agreement, and beyond, is the focus of this paper. The paper advances a framework on equity, which moves away from substantive moral conceptions of burden allocation toward refining principles of public reason specially designed for the negotiation process under the UNFCCC. The paper outlines the framework's main features and discusses how it can serve a facilitating role for multilateral discussion on equity on a long-term basis capable of adapting to changing circumstances.
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Impact of the 2015 El Niño on the Indonesian carbon balance: implications for carbon mitigation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bowman, K. W.; Liu, J.; Bloom, A. A.; Parazoo, N.; Lee, M.; Walker, T. W.; Menemenlis, D.; Jiang, Z.; Gierach, M.; Gurney, K. R.
2016-12-01
The COP21 or Paris Agreement in Dec. 2015 was a landmark step in a cooperative approach to reduce anthropogenic emissions from both fossil fuel and deforestation. During that same period, one of the strongest El Niños on record led to devastating droughts, fires, and air pollution in Indonesia. We assess the impact of this El Niño on the Indonesia carbon balance using the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) pilot project, which assimilates satellite observations across the entire carbon cycle to attribute the CO2 growth rate to spatially resolved surface fluxes. We assimilate new xCO2 observations from the Orbital Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) to quantify net carbon fluxes and validate those fluxes against independent in-situ atmospheric data. The contribution of biomass burning to the carbon balance is independently determined from the assimilation of Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT). The impact of the concomitant drought on productively is assessed from the assimilation of new solar induced fluorescence (SIF) measurements. Using these multiple lines of evidence, we investigate the relative role of biomass burning and productivity in the contribution of Indonesia to the global atmospheric growth rate. The exceptionally long turnover rates of peat carbon pools lead to effectively irreversible carbon loss to the atmosphere. The implications of these losses to Indonesian Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) as part of the Paris agreement will be explored.
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Comparing the Climate Agendas of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stephenson, S. R.; Oculi, N.
2016-12-01
Effective mitigation of and adaptation to climate change requires multilateral coordination of numerous political and scientific activities and priorities. Since its inception in 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has sought a comprehensive international response to the climate threat, culminating most recently in December 2015 at COP 21. The Paris Agreement was lauded as a landmark step toward global climate action as it represented a consensus of 196 countries to limit global warming to 2° C above pre-industrial levels with an additional stated goal to "pursue efforts" to limit the increase to 1.5° C. However, taken in a vacuum, the global Agreement masks important differences among its signatory countries in capabilities and priorities for tackling climate change, and obscures pathways for place-specific scientific research and intervention. Here we present a quantitative content analysis of official UNFCCC documents including COP transcripts, meeting agendas, and mitigation commitments outlined in pledged Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to reveal areas of alignment and divergence among UNFCCC stakeholders. Textual cluster analysis illustrates the relative salience of key climate-related discourses (e.g. vulnerability; loss and damage; decarbonization; technology transfer) in the agendas of negotiating parties, and the degree to which the interests of some parties are over- or under-represented in the final "consensus" agreement. Understanding these disparities, and their potential to promote cooperation and/or disagreement among stakeholders, will be critical to scientists' efforts to develop equitable and sustainable long-term climate solutions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti
2016-04-01
This paper analyses the long-term energy security in a national scale using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) modelling tool. It builds the LEAP Andorra model, which forecasts energy demand and supply for the Principality of Andorra by 2050. It has a general bottom-up structure, where energy demand is driven by the technological composition of the sectors of the economy. The technological model is combined with a top-down econometric model to take into account macroeconomic trends. The model presented in this paper provides an initial estimate of energy demand in Andorra segregated into all sectors (residential, transport, secondary, tertiary and public administration) and charts a baseline scenario based on historical trends. Additional scenarios representing different policy strategies are built to explore the country's potential energy savings and the feasibility to achieve the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) submitted in April 2015 to UN. In this climatic agreement Andorra intends to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 37% as compared to a business-as-usual scenario by 2030. In addition, current and future energy security is analysed in this paper under baseline and de-carbonization scenarios. Energy security issues are assessed in LEAP with an integrated vision, going beyond the classic perspective of security of supply, and being closer to the sustainability's integrative vision. Results of scenarios show the benefits of climate policies in terms of national energy security and the difficulties for Andorra to achieving the de-carbonization target by 2030.
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Elevated levels of ferritin in the cerebrospinal fluid of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients.
Zheng, Y; Gao, L; Wang, D; Zang, D
2017-08-01
The aim of the study was to detect changes in the levels of ferritin heavy chain (FHC), ferritin light chain (FLC), and transferrin in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients and to analyze the correlations between the levels of these proteins and various clinical parameters. Cerebrospinal fluid and serum samples were obtained from 54 ALS patients and 46 non-inflammatory neurological disease control (non-INDC) patients. CSF and serum FHC, FLC, and transferring levels were measured via the enzyme-linked immunosorbent method using a commercial ELISA kit, and the times from onset (durations), ALS functional rating scale-revised (ALSFRS-r) scores, and disease progression rates (DPRs) were analyzed by registered neurologists. Statistical analysis was performed via Prism software. Compared with controls, ALS patients exhibited significantly increased FHC and FLC levels in CSF, which were positively correlated with DPR and negatively correlated with duration. Serum transferrin levels were significantly increased in ALS patients but were not correlated with disease progression. FHC and FLC in CSF rapidly increased as the disease worsened. This study demonstrated that the clinical measurement of FHC and FLC in CSF may be beneficial for disease differentiation and evaluating progression in patients with ALS. Compared with levels in serum, the levels of FHC and FLC in CSF might be more reliable for diagnosing and assessing the progression of ALS. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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2 °C and SDGs: united they stand, divided they fall?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von Stechow, Christoph; Minx, Jan C.; Riahi, Keywan; Jewell, Jessica; McCollum, David L.; Callaghan, Max W.; Bertram, Christoph; Luderer, Gunnar; Baiocchi, Giovanni
2016-03-01
The adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the new international climate treaty could put 2015 into the history books as a defining year for setting human development on a more sustainable pathway. The global climate policy and SDG agendas are highly interconnected: the way that the climate problem is addressed strongly affects the prospects of meeting numerous other SDGs and vice versa. Drawing on existing scenario results from a recent energy-economy-climate model inter-comparison project, this letter analyses these synergies and (risk) trade-offs of alternative 2 °C pathways across indicators relevant for energy-related SDGs and sustainable energy objectives. We find that limiting the availability of key mitigation technologies yields some co-benefits and decreases risks specific to these technologies but greatly increases many others. Fewer synergies and substantial trade-offs across SDGs are locked into the system for weak short-term climate policies that are broadly in line with current Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), particularly when combined with constraints on technologies. Lowering energy demand growth is key to managing these trade-offs and creating synergies across multiple energy-related SD dimensions. We argue that SD considerations are central for choosing socially acceptable 2 °C pathways: the prospects of meeting other SDGs need not dwindle and can even be enhanced for some goals if appropriate climate policy choices are made. Progress on the climate policy and SDG agendas should therefore be tracked within a unified framework.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reimann, S.; Vollmer, M. K.; Henne, S.; Brunner, D.; Emmenegger, L.; Manning, A.; Fraser, P. J.; Krummel, P. B.; Dunse, B. L.; DeCola, P.; Tarasova, O. A.
2016-12-01
In the recently adopted Paris Agreement the community of signatory states has agreed to limit the future global temperature increase between +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C, compared to pre-industrial times. To achieve this goal, emission reduction targets have been submitted by individual nations (called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs). Inventories will be used for checking progress towards these envisaged goals. These inventories are calculated by combining information on specific activities (e.g. passenger cars, agriculture) with activity-related, typically IPCC-sanctioned, emission factors - the so-called bottom-up method. These calculated emissions are reported on an annual basis and are checked by external bodies by using the same method. A second independent method estimates emissions by translating greenhouse gas measurements made at regionally representative stations into regional/global emissions using meteorologically-based transport models. In recent years this so-called top-down approach has been substantially advanced into a powerful tool and emission estimates at the national/regional level have become possible. This method is already used in Switzerland, in the United Kingdom and in Australia to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and independently support the national bottom-up emission inventories within the UNFCCC framework. Examples of the comparison of the two independent methods will be presented and the added-value will be discussed. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and partner organizations are currently developing a plan to expand this top-down approach and to expand the globally representative GAW network of ground-based stations and remote-sensing platforms and integrate their information with atmospheric transport models. This Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS) initiative will help nations to improve the accuracy of their country-based emissions inventories and their ability to evaluate the success of emission reductions strategies. This could foster trans-national collaboration on methodologies for estimation of emissions. Furthermore, more accurate emission knowledge will clarify the value of emission reduction efforts and could encourage countries to strengthen their reduction pledges.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tong, D.; Zhang, Q.
2017-12-01
As the largest energy infrastructure in China, power sector consumed more coal than any other sector and threatened air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement target. In this work, we assessed the evolution of coal-fired power plants in China during 2010-2030 and the evolution of associated emissions for the same period by using a unit-based emission projection model which integrated the historical power plants information, turnover of the future power plant fleet, and the evolution of end-of-pipe control technologies. We found that, driven by the stringent environmental legislation, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions from China's coal-fired power plants decreased by 49%, 45%, and 24% respectively during 2010-2015, comparing to 14% increase of coal consumption and 15% increase in CO2 emissions. We estimated that under current national energy development planning, coal consumption and CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants will continue to increase until 2030, in which against the China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) targets. Early retirement of old and low-efficient power plants will cumulatively reduce 2.2 Pg CO2 emissions from the baseline scenario during 2016-2030, but still could not curb CO2 emissions from the peak before 2030. Owing to the implementation of "near zero" emission control policy, we projected that emissions of air pollutants will significantly decrease during the same period under all scenarios, indicating the decoupling trends of air pollutants and CO2 emissions. Although with limited direct emission reduction benefits, increasing operating hours of power plants could avoid 236 GW of new power plants construction, which could indirectly reduce emissions embodied in the construction activity. Our results identified a more sustainable pathway for China's coal-fired power plants, which could reduce air pollutant emissions, improve the energy efficiency, and slow down the construction of new units. However, continuous construction of new coal-fired power plants driven by increased electricity demand would pose a potential threat to climate change mitigation and China's peak carbon pledge, and more aggressive CO2 emission reduction policy should be implemented in the future.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Straub, K. H.
2016-12-01
I teach an interdisciplinary course on modern climate change that attracts students from a variety of academic backgrounds. The class size is typically 20-25 students. The final exercise of the semester is an in-class simulation of the Paris Agreement negotiations, which integrates all of the topics the students have studied throughout the semester (science, politics, skeptic arguments, ethics, economics, etc.). For this exercise, we use the free online C-Learn climate simulator (https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/c-learn/), but with several modifications from the suggested negotiation methodology. All but two students were assigned an individual country to represent within the larger groups "Developed," (e.g., US, EU, Australia), "Developing A" (e.g., China, India, Indonesia), and "Developing B" (e.g., Maldives, Haiti, Botswana). The remaining two students were assigned the roles of "Exxon Mobil" and "Greenpeace," to represent external lobbyists. Prior to the in-class negotiation, students completed an assignment on their individual role that required them to research their country's actual INDC and the projected impacts of a 2 degree C rise in average global temperature, as well as create "behavior rules" for their country to follow during the simulation. Lobbyists were given modified assignments. To make the simulation more complex and realistic, I assigned each actor an initial sum of money and created rules about the cost of emissions reductions. The goal of the simulation was to create an affordable timeline of emissions that kept the global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees C. Suggested emissions timelines were entered into the C-Learn online simulator during the activity to check progress toward the goal. Student feedback about the simulation was very positive. I had planned only one class period for the negotiations but students were so engaged that they asked for it to be extended into a second period. This exercise could easily be adapted to smaller or larger class sizes, and modified based on the knowledge base and experience level of the students.
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The Impact of CCS Readiness on the Evolution of China's Electric Power Sector
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Dahowski, Robert T.; Davidson, Casie L.; Yu, Sha
In this study, GCAM-China is exercised to examine the impact of CCS availability on the projected evolution of China’s electric power sector under the Paris Increased Ambition policy scenario developed by Fawcett et al. based on the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted under the COP-21 Paris Agreement. This policy scenario provides a backdrop for understanding China’s electric generation mix over the coming century under several CCS availability scenarios: CCS is fully available for commercial-scale deployment by 2025; by 2050; by 2075; and CCS is unavailable for use in meeting the modelled mitigation targets through 2100. Without having CCS available,more » the Chinese electric power sector turns to significant use of nuclear, wind, and solar to meet growing demands and emissions targets, at a cost. Should large-scale CCS deployment be delayed in China by 25 years, the modeled per-ton cost of climate change mitigation is projected to be roughly $420/tC (2010 US dollars) by 2050, relative to $360/tC in the case in which CCS is available to deploy by 2025, a 16% increase. Once CCS is available for commercial use, mitigation costs for the two cases converge, equilibrating by 2085. However, should CCS be entirely unavailable to deploy in China, the mitigation cost spread, compared to the 2025 case, doubles by 2075 ($580/tC and $1130/tC respectively), and triples by 2100 ($1050/tC vs. $3200/tC). However, while delays in CCS availability may have short-term impacts on China’s overall per-ton cost of meeting the emissions reduction target evaluated here, as well as total mitigation costs, the carbon price is likely to approach the price path associated with the full CCS availability case within a decade of CCS deployment. Having CCS available before the end of the century, even under the delays examined here, could reduce the total amount of nuclear and renewable energy that must deploy, reducing the overall cost of meeting the emissions mitigation targets.« less
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Feasibility and Costs of Natural Gas as a Bridge to Deep Decarbonization in the United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jones, A. D.; McJeon, H. C.; Muratori, M.; Shi, W.
2015-12-01
Achieving emissions reductions consistent with a 2 degree Celsius global warming target requires nearly complete replacement of traditional fossil fuel combustion with near-zero carbon energy technologies in the United States by 2050. There are multiple technological change pathways consistent with this deep decarbonization, including strategies that rely on renewable energy, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. The replacement of coal-fired power plants with natural gas-fired power plants has also been suggested as a bridge strategy to achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. These gas plants, however, would need to be replaced by near-zero energy technologies or retrofitted with CCS by 2050 in order to achieve longer-term targets. Here we examine the costs and feasibility of a natural gas bridge strategy. Using the Global Change Assessment (GCAM) model, we develop multiple scenarios that each meet the recent US Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to reduce GHG emissions by 26%-28% below its 2005 levels in 2025, as well as a deep decarbonization target of 80% emissions reductions below 1990 levels by 2050. We find that the gas bridge strategy requires that gas plants be retired on average 20 years earlier than their designed lifetime of 45 years, a potentially challenging outcome to achieve from a policy perspective. Using a more idealized model, we examine the net energy system costs of this gas bridge strategy compared to one in which near-zero energy technologies are deployed in the near tem. We explore the sensitivity of these cost results to four factors: the discount rate applied to future costs, the length (or start year) of the gas bridge, the relative capital cost of natural gas vs. near-zero energy technology, and the fuel price of natural gas. The discount rate and cost factors are found to be more important than the length of the bridge. However, we find an important interaction as well. At low discount rates, the gas bridge is more expensive and a shorter bridge is preferred. At high discount rates, the gas bridge is less expensive and a longer bridge is preferred. This result indicates that the valuation of future expenditures relative to present day expenditures is a major factor in determining the merits of a gas bridge strategy.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ale, S.; Chen, Y.; Rajan, N.
2016-12-01
Texas High Plains (THP) is one of the important cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) growing regions in the US. Agriculture in the THP faces several challenges from declining groundwater levels and deteriorating groundwater quality in the underlying Ogallala Aquifer, and recurring droughts and severe wind erosion. Groundwater conservation districts in the THP have started setting up limits on annual allowable groundwater pumping for irrigation. Introducing cover crops in to the cotton production systems in the THP and/or changing land use from cotton to perennial bioenergy crops could not only address the above challenges, but also assist in meeting the national biofuel target. The overall goal of this study is to assess the implications of biofuel-indced land use managemt (growing winter wheat as a cover crop along with cotton) and land use change (replacing cotton with Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and Miscanthus (Miscanthus giganteus)) on hydrology, water quality, wind erosion and biofuel production potential in the Double Mountain Fork Brazos watershed in the THP using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model. Results showed that, in comparison to the baseline (cotton monoculture) scenario, the average annual wind erosion reduced by 59% and 37% in irrigated and dryland areas, respectively, when winter wheat was grown as a cover crop along with cotton under the current 18-inch groundwater pumping restriction set up by the High Plains Water District. In addition, winter wheat produced about 2.6 and 2.0 Mg ha-1 of biomass for biofuel purposes under the irrigated and dryland conditions, respectively. Furthermore, the total nitrogen (TN) load and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) leaching decreased by more than 43% and 73%, respectively, under the cover crop scenario. The land use change from cotton to switchgrass (in irrigated areas) and Miscanthus (in dryland areas) decreased the TN load, NO3-N leaching and wind erosion by more than 89% relative to the baseline. Under the restrictions on groundwater use, when compared to single harvest, multiple harvests of perennial bioenergy crops (two- and three-harvests in case of switchgrass and Miscanthus, respectively) were found to be better in terms of biomass production (> 20 Mg ha-1), and protection of groundwater and soil quality.
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Progress toward an Integrated Global GHG Information System (IG3IS)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
DeCola, Philip
2016-04-01
Accurate and precise atmospheric measurements of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have shown the inexorable rise of global GHG concentrations due to human socioeconomic activity. Scientific observations also show a resulting rise in global temperatures and evidence of negative impacts on society. In response to this amassing evidence, nations, states, cities and private enterprises are accelerating efforts to reduce emissions of GHGs, and the UNFCCC process recently forged the Paris Agreement. Emission reduction strategies will vary by nation, region, and economic sector (e.g., INDCs), but regardless of the strategies and mechanisms applied, the ability to implement policies and manage them effectively over time will require consistent, reliable and timely information. A number of studies [e.g., Verifying Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Methods to Support International Climate Agreements (2010); GEO Carbon Strategy (2010); IPCC Task Force on National GHG Inventories: Expert Meeting Report on Uncertainty and Validation of Emission Inventories (2010)] have reported on the state of carbon cycle research, observations and models and the ability of these atmospheric observations and models to independently validate and improve the accuracy of self-reported emission inventories based on fossil fuel usage and land use activities. These studies concluded that by enhancing our in situ and remote-sensing observations and atmospheric data assimilation modeling capabilities, a GHG information system could be achieved in the coming decade to serve the needs of policies and actions to reduce GHG emissions. Atmospheric measurements and models are already being used to provide emissions information on a global and continental scale through existing networks, but these efforts currently provide insufficient information at the human-dimensions where nations, states, cities, and private enterprises can take valuable, and additional action that can reduce emissions for a specific GHG from a specific human activity. Based upon the recent advances in GHG observation technologies, new data-mining tools for acquiring socioeconomic activity data, and enhancements to the computational models used to merge this data, WMO and its partners are developing a plan for an Integrated Global GHG Information System (IG3IS) able to evaluate the efficacy of policy, reduce emission inventory uncertainty, and inform additional mitigation actions. The presentation will cover the principles and objectives of IG3IS, as well as progress toward answering the questions: What research capabilities are ready and able to deliver useful information for whom? What decisions will be informed? What valuable and additional outcomes will result?
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The role of bioenergy in a climate-changing world
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Souza, Glaucia Mendes; Ballester, Maria Victoria R.; de Brito Cruz, Carlos Henrique
Bioenergy has been under intense scrutiny over the last ten years with significant research efforts in many countries taking place to define and measure sustainable practices. We describe here the main challenges and policy issues and provide policy recommendations for scaling up sustainable bioenergy approaches globally. The 2016 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs defined under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP21) will not reach global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission targets of 2 °C. Sustainable biomass production can make a significant contribution. Substantive evidence exists that many bioenergy cropping systems can bring multiple benefitsmore » and off-set environmental problems associated with fossil fuels usage as well as intensive food production and urbanization. We provide evidence that there are many approaches to land use for bioenergy expansion that do not lead to competition for food or other needs. We should focus on how to manage these approaches on a synergistic basis and how to reduce tradeoffs at landscape scales. Priorities include successful synergies between bioenergy and food security (integrated resource management designed to improve both food security and access to bioenergy), investments in technology, rural extension, and innovations that build capacity and infrastructure, promotion of stable prices to incentivize local production and use of double cropping and flex crops (plants grown for both food and non-food markets) that provide food and energy as well as other services. The sustainable production of biomass requires appropriate policies to secure long-term support to improve crop productivity and also to ensure environmental as well as economic and social benefits of bioenergy cropping systems. Continuous support for cropping, infrastructure, agricultural management and related policies is needed to foster positive synergies between food crops and bioenergy production. In comparison to fossil fuels, biofuels have many positive environmental benefits. Potential negative effects caused by land-use change and agriculture intensification can be mitigated by agroecological zoning, best management practices, the use of eco-hydrology and biodiversity-friendly concepts at field, watershed and landscape scales. Global climate and environmental changes related to the use of fossil fuels and inequitable development make it unethical not to pursue more equitable energy development that includes bioenergy. Here, to achieve sustainable development, competitiveness and costs of bioenergy production need to be addressed in a manner that considers not only economic gains but also development of local knowledge and social and environmental benefits.« less
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The role of bioenergy in a climate-changing world
Souza, Glaucia Mendes; Ballester, Maria Victoria R.; de Brito Cruz, Carlos Henrique; ...
2017-02-24
Bioenergy has been under intense scrutiny over the last ten years with significant research efforts in many countries taking place to define and measure sustainable practices. We describe here the main challenges and policy issues and provide policy recommendations for scaling up sustainable bioenergy approaches globally. The 2016 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs defined under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP21) will not reach global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission targets of 2 °C. Sustainable biomass production can make a significant contribution. Substantive evidence exists that many bioenergy cropping systems can bring multiple benefitsmore » and off-set environmental problems associated with fossil fuels usage as well as intensive food production and urbanization. We provide evidence that there are many approaches to land use for bioenergy expansion that do not lead to competition for food or other needs. We should focus on how to manage these approaches on a synergistic basis and how to reduce tradeoffs at landscape scales. Priorities include successful synergies between bioenergy and food security (integrated resource management designed to improve both food security and access to bioenergy), investments in technology, rural extension, and innovations that build capacity and infrastructure, promotion of stable prices to incentivize local production and use of double cropping and flex crops (plants grown for both food and non-food markets) that provide food and energy as well as other services. The sustainable production of biomass requires appropriate policies to secure long-term support to improve crop productivity and also to ensure environmental as well as economic and social benefits of bioenergy cropping systems. Continuous support for cropping, infrastructure, agricultural management and related policies is needed to foster positive synergies between food crops and bioenergy production. In comparison to fossil fuels, biofuels have many positive environmental benefits. Potential negative effects caused by land-use change and agriculture intensification can be mitigated by agroecological zoning, best management practices, the use of eco-hydrology and biodiversity-friendly concepts at field, watershed and landscape scales. Global climate and environmental changes related to the use of fossil fuels and inequitable development make it unethical not to pursue more equitable energy development that includes bioenergy. Here, to achieve sustainable development, competitiveness and costs of bioenergy production need to be addressed in a manner that considers not only economic gains but also development of local knowledge and social and environmental benefits.« less