Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Laurenroth, William K.; Hall, Sonia A.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Wilson, Scott D.

2017-01-01

Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding.We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation.Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

Productivity loss due to overweight and obesity: a systematic review of indirect costs.

PubMed

Goettler, Andrea; Grosse, Anna; Sonntag, Diana

2017-10-05

The increasingly high levels of overweight and obesity among the workforce are accompanied by a hidden cost burden due to losses in productivity. This study reviews the extent of indirect cost of overweight and obesity. A systematic search was conducted in eight electronic databases (PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science Core Collection, PsychInfo, Cinahl, EconLit and ClinicalTrial.gov). Additional studies were added from reference lists of original studies and reviews. Studies were eligible if they were published between January 2000 and June 2017 and included monetary estimates of indirect costs of overweight and obesity. The authors reviewed studies independently and assessed their quality. Of the 3626 search results, 50 studies met the inclusion criteria. A narrative synthesis of the reviewed studies revealed substantial costs due to lost productivity among workers with obesity. Especially absenteeism and presenteeism contribute to high indirect costs. However, the methodologies and results vary greatly, especially regarding the cost of overweight, which was even associated with lower indirect costs than normal weight in three studies. The evidence predominantly confirms substantial short-term and long-term indirect costs of overweight and obesity in the absence of effective customised prevention programmes and thus demonstrates the extent of the burden of obesity beyond the healthcare sector. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Total, direct, and indirect effects of paan on oral cancer.

PubMed

Merchant, Anwar T; Pitiphat, Waranuch

2015-03-01

Paan (betel leaf and betel nut quid) used with or without tobacco has been positively associated with oral cancer. Oral submucous fibrosis (OSMF), a precancerous condition caused by paan, lies on the causal pathway between paan use and oral cancer. The purpose of this analysis was to estimate the effect of paan consumption on oral cancer risk when it is mediated by OSMF. We used mediation methods proposed by VanderWeele, which are based on causal inference principles, to characterize the total, direct, and indirect effects of paan, consumed with and without tobacco, on oral cancer mediated by OSMF. We reanalyzed case-control data collected from three hospitals in Karachi, Pakistan, between July 1996 and March 1998. For paan without tobacco, the total effect on oral cancer was OR 7.39, 95 % CI 1.01, 38.11, the natural indirect effect (due to OSMF among paan users) was OR 2.48, 95 % CI 0.99, 10.44, and the natural direct effect (due to paan with OSMF absent) was OR 3.32, 95 % CI 0.68, 10.07. For paan with tobacco, the total direct effect was OR 15.68, 95 % CI 3.00, 54.90, the natural indirect effect was OR 2.18, 95 % CI 0.82, 5.52, and the natural direct effect was OR 7.27, 95 % CI 2.15, 20.43. Paan, whether or not it contained tobacco, raised oral cancer risk irrespective of OSMF. Oral cancer risk was higher among those who used paan with tobacco.

Excess mortality due to indirect health effects of the 2011 triple disaster in Fukushima, Japan: a retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Morita, Tomohiro; Nomura, Shuhei; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Leppold, Claire; Gilmour, Stuart; Ochi, Sae; Ozaki, Akihiko; Shimada, Yuki; Yamamoto, Kana; Inoue, Manami; Kato, Shigeaki; Shibuya, Kenji; Kami, Masahiro

2017-10-01

Evidence on the indirect health impacts of disasters is limited. We assessed the excess mortality risk associated with the indirect health impacts of the 2011 triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster) in Fukushima, Japan. The mortality rates in Soma and Minamisoma cities in Fukushima from 2006 to 2015 were calculated using vital statistics and resident registrations. We investigated the excess mortality risk, defined as the increased mortality risk between postdisaster and predisaster after excluding direct deaths attributed to the physical force of the disaster. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality after adjusting for city, age and year. There were 6163 and 6125 predisaster and postdisaster deaths, respectively. The postdisaster mortality risk was significantly higher in the first month following the disaster (March 2011) than in the same month during the predisaster period (March 2006-2010). RRs among men and women were 2.64 (95% CI 2.16 to 3.24) and 2.46 (95% CI 1.99 to 3.03), respectively, demonstrating excess mortality risk due to the indirect health effects of the disaster. Age-specific subgroup analyses revealed a significantly higher mortality risk in women aged ≥85 years in the third month of the disaster compared with predisaster baseline, with an RR (95% CI) of 1.73 (1.23 to 2.44). Indirect health impacts are most severe in the first month of the disaster. Early public health support, especially for the elderly, can be an important factor for reducing the indirect health effects of a disaster. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Interactive Nature of Climate Change and Aerosol Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D.; Tsigaridis, K.; Del Genio, A. D.; Kelley, M.; Tausnev, N.

2017-01-01

The effect of changing cloud cover on climate, based on cloud-aerosol interactions, is one of the major unknowns for climate forcing and climate sensitivity. It has two components: (1) the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate due to in-situ interactions (i.e., rapid response); and (2) the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback that arises as climate changes - climate feedback response. We examine both effects utilizing the NASA GISS ModelE2 to assess the indirect effect, with both mass-based and microphysical aerosol schemes, in transient twentieth-century simulations. We separate the rapid response and climate feedback effects by making simulations with a coupled version of the model as well as one with no sea surface temperature or sea ice response (atmosphere-only simulations). We show that the indirect effect of aerosols on temperature is altered by the climate feedbacks following the ocean response, and this change differs depending upon which aerosol model is employed. Overall the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for the direct effect of aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) ranges between -0.2 and -0.6 W/sq m for atmosphere-only experiments while the total effective radiative forcing, including the indirect effect (ERFari+aci) varies between about -0.4 and -1.1 W/sq m for atmosphere-only simulations; both ranges are in agreement with those given in IPCC (2013). Including the full feedback of the climate system lowers these ranges to -0.2 to -0.5 W/sq m for ERFari, and -0.3 to -0.74 W/sq m for ERFari+aci. With both aerosol schemes, the climate change feedbacks have reduced the global average indirect radiative effect of atmospheric aerosols relative to what the emission changes would have produced, at least partially due to its effect on tropical upper tropospheric clouds.

Aerosol indirect effects on lightning in the generation of induced NOx and tropospheric ozone over an Indian urban metropolis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Upal; Maitra, Animesh; Talukdar, Shamitaksha; Jana, Soumyajyoti

Lightning flashes, associated with vigorous convective activity, is one of the most prominent weather phenomena in the tropical atmosphere. High aerosol loading is indirectly associated with the increase in lightning flash rates via the formation of tropospheric ozone during the pre-monsoon and monsoon over the tropics. Tropospheric ozone, an important greenhouse pollutant gas have impact on Earth’s radiation budget and play a key role in changing the atmospheric circulation patterns. Lightning-induced NOx is a primary pollutant found in photochemical smog and an important precursor for the formation of tropospheric ozone. A critical analysis is done to study the indirect effects of high aerosol loading on the formation of tropospheric ozone via lightning flashes and induced NOx formation over an urban metropolitan location Kolkata (22°32'N, 88°20'E), India during the period 2001-2012. The seasonal variation of lightning flash rates (LFR), taken from TRMM-LIS 2.5o x 2.5o gridded dataset, show that the LFR was observed to be intensified in the pre-monsoon (March-May) and high in monsoon (June-September) months over the region. Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at 555nm, taken from MISR 0.5o x 0.5o gridded level-3 dataset, plays an indirect effect on the increase in LFR during the pre-monsoon and monsoon months and has positive correlations between them during these periods. This is also justified from the seasonal variation of the increase in LFR due to the increase in AOD over the region during 2001-2012. The calibrated GOME and OMI/AURA satellite data analysis shows that the tropospheric ozone, formed as a result of lightning-induced NOx and due to the increased AOD at 555 nm, also increases during the pre-monsoon and monsoon months. The seasonal variation of lightning-induced tropospheric NOx, taken from SCIAMACHY observations also justified the fact that the pre-monsoon and monsoon LFR solely responsible for the generation of induced NOx over the region. The increase in lightning activity is caused by the indirect influx of aerosols, especially in the upper troposphere. This is due to the warming-effect of aerosol forcing via its effect on tropospheric ozone production. Due to the increased production of O3 by lightning-induced NOx and high aerosol loading in the pre-monsoon and monsoon months, the positive climate feedback indicates a warmer climate. As a consequence, convective activity as well as lightning flashes may increase due to this indirect effect of AOD over the region. The generation of induced NOx has a positive correlation (r = 0.723) with the LFR during 2001-2012 over Kolkata. Thus, our results have significant implications for understanding the tropospheric ozone forcing by investigating the coupled aerosol-cloud-chemistry system on the generation of lightning and lightning-induced NOx over the urban metropolis.

Hybrid Adaptive Flight Control with Model Inversion Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan

2011-01-01

This study investigates a hybrid adaptive flight control method as a design possibility for a flight control system that can enable an effective adaptation strategy to deal with off-nominal flight conditions. The hybrid adaptive control blends both direct and indirect adaptive control in a model inversion flight control architecture. The blending of both direct and indirect adaptive control provides a much more flexible and effective adaptive flight control architecture than that with either direct or indirect adaptive control alone. The indirect adaptive control is used to update the model inversion controller by an on-line parameter estimation of uncertain plant dynamics based on two methods. The first parameter estimation method is an indirect adaptive law based on the Lyapunov theory, and the second method is a recursive least-squares indirect adaptive law. The model inversion controller is therefore made to adapt to changes in the plant dynamics due to uncertainty. As a result, the modeling error is reduced that directly leads to a decrease in the tracking error. In conjunction with the indirect adaptive control that updates the model inversion controller, a direct adaptive control is implemented as an augmented command to further reduce any residual tracking error that is not entirely eliminated by the indirect adaptive control.

Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal differential rates of change in direct and indirect effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Babcock, R.C.; Shears, N.T.; Alcala, A.C.; Barrett, N.S.; Edgar, G.J.; Lafferty, K.D.; McClanahan, T.R.; Russ, G.R.

2010-01-01

Decadal-scale observations of marine reserves suggest that indirect effects on taxa that occur through cascading trophic interactions take longer to develop than direct effects on target species. Combining and analyzing a unique set of long-term time series of ecologic data in and out of fisheries closures from disparate regions, we found that the time to initial detection of direct effects on target species (+ or -SE) was 5.13 + or - 1.9 years, whereas initial detection of indirect effects on other taxa, which were often trait mediated, took significantly longer (13.1 + or - 2.0 years). Most target species showed initial direct effects, but their trajectories over time were highly variable. Many target species continued to increase, some leveled off, and others decreased. Decreases were due to natural fluctuations, fishing impacts from outside reserves, or indirect effects from target species at higher trophic levels. The average duration of stable periods for direct effects was 6.2 + or - 1.2 years, even in studies of more than 15 years. For indirect effects, stable periods averaged 9.1 + or - 1.6 years, although this was not significantly different from direct effects. Populations of directly targeted species were more stable in reserves than in fished areas, suggesting increased ecologic resilience. This is an important benefit of marine reserves with respect to their function as a tool for conservation and restoration.

Decadal trends in marine reserves reveal differential rates of change in direct and indirect effects.

PubMed

Babcock, R C; Shears, N T; Alcala, A C; Barrett, N S; Edgar, G J; Lafferty, K D; McClanahan, T R; Russ, G R

2010-10-26

Decadal-scale observations of marine reserves suggest that indirect effects on taxa that occur through cascading trophic interactions take longer to develop than direct effects on target species. Combining and analyzing a unique set of long-term time series of ecologic data in and out of fisheries closures from disparate regions, we found that the time to initial detection of direct effects on target species (±SE) was 5.13 ± 1.9 years, whereas initial detection of indirect effects on other taxa, which were often trait mediated, took significantly longer (13.1 ± 2.0 years). Most target species showed initial direct effects, but their trajectories over time were highly variable. Many target species continued to increase, some leveled off, and others decreased. Decreases were due to natural fluctuations, fishing impacts from outside reserves, or indirect effects from target species at higher trophic levels. The average duration of stable periods for direct effects was 6.2 ± 1.2 years, even in studies of more than 15 years. For indirect effects, stable periods averaged 9.1 ± 1.6 years, although this was not significantly different from direct effects. Populations of directly targeted species were more stable in reserves than in fished areas, suggesting increased ecologic resilience. This is an important benefit of marine reserves with respect to their function as a tool for conservation and restoration.

Trophic Tangles through Time? Opposing Direct and Indirect Effects of an Invasive Omnivore on Stream Ecosystem Processes

PubMed Central

Moore, Jonathan W.; Carlson, Stephanie M.; Twardochleb, Laura A.; Hwan, Jason L.; Fox, Justin M.; Hayes, Sean A.

2012-01-01

Omnivores can impact ecosystems via opposing direct or indirect effects. For example, omnivores that feed on herbivores and plants could either increase plant biomass due to the removal of herbivores or decrease plant biomass due to direct consumption. Thus, empirical quantification of the relative importance of direct and indirect impacts of omnivores is needed, especially the impacts of invasive omnivores. Here we investigated how an invasive omnivore (signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus) impacts stream ecosystems. First, we performed a large-scale experiment to examine the short-term (three month) direct and indirect impacts of crayfish on a stream food web. Second, we performed a comparative study of un-invaded areas and areas invaded 90 years ago to examine whether patterns from the experiment scaled up to longer time frames. In the experiment, crayfish increased leaf litter breakdown rate, decreased the abundance and biomass of other benthic invertebrates, and increased algal production. Thus, crayfish controlled detritus via direct consumption and likely drove a trophic cascade through predation on grazers. Consistent with the experiment, the comparative study also found that benthic invertebrate biomass decreased with crayfish. However, contrary to the experiment, crayfish presence was not significantly associated with higher leaf litter breakdown in the comparative study. We posit that during invasion, generalist crayfish replace the more specialized native detritivores (caddisflies), thereby leading to little long-term change in net detrital breakdown. A feeding experiment revealed that these native detritivores and the crayfish were both effective consumers of detritus. Thus, the impacts of omnivores represent a temporally-shifting interplay between direct and indirect effects that can control basal resources. PMID:23209810

Sensitivity studies of different aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, U.; Hoose, C.

2009-11-01

Aerosols affect the climate system by changing cloud characteristics. Using the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM, we investigate different aerosol effects on mixed-phase clouds: The glaciation effect, which refers to a more frequent glaciation due to anthropogenic aerosols, versus the de-activation effect, which suggests that ice nuclei become less effective because of an anthropogenic sulfate coating. The glaciation effect can partly offset the indirect aerosol effect on warm clouds and thus causes the total anthropogenic aerosol effect to be smaller. It is investigated by varying the parameterization for the Bergeron-Findeisen process and the threshold coating thickness of sulfate (SO4-crit), which is required to convert an externally mixed aerosol particle into an internally mixed particle. Differences in the net radiation at the top-of-the-atmosphere due to anthropogenic aerosols between the different sensitivity studies amount up to 0.5 W m-2. This suggests that the investigated mixed-phase processes have a major effect on the total anthropogenic aerosol effect.

Sensitivity studies of different aerosol indirect effects in mixed-phase clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, U.; Hoose, C.

2009-07-01

Aerosols affect the climate system by changing cloud characteristics. Using the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM, we investigate different aerosol effects on mixed-phase clouds: The glaciation effect, which refers to a more frequent glaciation due to anthropogenic aerosols, versus the de-activation effect, which suggests that ice nuclei become less effective because of an anthropogenic sulfate coating. The glaciation effect can partly offset the indirect aerosol effect on warm clouds and thus causes the total anthropogenic aerosol effect to be smaller. It is investigated by varying the parameterization for the Bergeron-Findeisen process and the threshold coating thickness of sulfate (SO4-crit), which is required to convert an externally mixed aerosol particle into an internally mixed particle. Differences in the net radiation at the top-of-the-atmosphere due to anthropogenic aerosols between the different sensitivity studies amount up to 0.5 W m-2. This suggests that the investigated mixed-phase processes have a major effect on the total anthropogenic aerosol effect.

How ocean acidification can benefit calcifiers.

PubMed

Connell, Sean D; Doubleday, Zoë A; Hamlyn, Sarah B; Foster, Nicole R; Harley, Christopher D G; Helmuth, Brian; Kelaher, Brendan P; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Sarà, Gianluca; Russell, Bayden D

2017-02-06

Reduction in seawater pH due to rising levels of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the world's oceans is a major force set to shape the future of marine ecosystems and the ecological services they provide [1,2]. In particular, ocean acidification is predicted to have a detrimental effect on the physiology of calcifying organisms [3]. Yet, the indirect effects of ocean acidification on calcifying organisms, which may counter or exacerbate direct effects, is uncertain. Using volcanic CO 2 vents, we tested the indirect effects of ocean acidification on a calcifying herbivore (gastropod) within the natural complexity of an ecological system. Contrary to predictions, the abundance of this calcifier was greater at vent sites (with near-future CO 2 levels). Furthermore, translocation experiments demonstrated that ocean acidification did not drive increases in gastropod abundance directly, but indirectly as a function of increased habitat and food (algal biomass). We conclude that the effect of ocean acidification on algae (primary producers) can have a strong, indirect positive influence on the abundance of some calcifying herbivores, which can overwhelm any direct negative effects. This finding points to the need to understand ecological processes that buffer the negative effects of environmental change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relative importance of male and territory quality in pairing success of male rock ptarmigan (Lagopus mutus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Earnst, Susan L.

1999-01-01

We studied pairing success in male rock ptarmigan (Lagopus mutus) in northern Alaska to learn whether males obtaining more females possessed phenotypic traits that influenced female choice directly, whether these traits permitted males to obtain territories favored by females, or whether both processes occurred. The number of females per male varied from zero to three. Several male and territory traits were significantly correlated with number of females per male. We used multiple regression to obtain a single measure of male quality and a single measure of territory quality. These measures of male and territory quality correlated with each other and with male pairing success. We used path analysis to separate direct effects of male quality on pairing success from indirect effects due to high-quality males obtaining high-quality territories. Both direct and indirect pathways had significant effects on pairing success, and direct and indirect effects of male traits on pairing success were about equal. This study illustrates an analytical approach for estimating the relative importance of direct and indirect causal relationships in natural systems.

Transport of Indirect Excitons in High Magnetic Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorow, C. J.; Kuznetsova, Y. Y.; Calman, E. V.; Butov, L. V.; Wilkes, J.; Campman, K. L.; Gossard, A. C.

Spatially- and spectrally-resolved photoluminescence measurements of indirect excitons in high magnetic fields are presented. The high magnetic field regime for excitons is realized when the cyclotron splitting compares to the exciton binding energy. Due to small mass and binding energy, the high magnetic field regime for excitons is achievable in lab, requiring a few Tesla. Long indirect exciton lifetimes allow large exciton transport distances before recombination, giving an opportunity to study transport and relaxation kinetics of indirect magnetoexcitons via optical imaging. Indirect excitons in several Landau level states are realized. 0e -0h indirect magnetoexcitons (formed from electrons and holes at zeroth Landau levels) travel over large distances and form an emission ring around the excitation spot. In contrast, the 1e -1h and 2e -2h states do not exhibit long transport distances, and the spatial profiles of the emission closely follow the laser excitation. The 0e -0h indirect magnetoexciton transport distance reduces with increasing magnetic field. Accompanying theoretical work explains these effects in terms of magnetoexciton energy relaxation and effective mass enhancement. Supported by NSF Grant No. 1407277. J.W. was supported by the EPSRC (Grant EP/L022990/1). C.J.D. was supported by the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant No. DGE-1144086.

Decreased Odds of Injection Risk Behavior Associated With Direct Versus Indirect Use of Syringe Exchange: Evidence From Two California Cities.

PubMed

Behrends, Czarina N; Li, Chin-Shang; Gibson, David R

2017-07-29

While there is substantial evidence that syringe exchange programs (SEPs) are effective in preventing HIV among people who inject drugs (PWID), nearly all the evidence comes from PWID who obtain syringes from an SEP directly. Much less is known about the benefits of secondary exchange to PWID who get syringes indirectly from friends or acquaintances who visit an SEP for them. We evaluated the effectiveness of direct versus indirect syringe exchange in reducing HIV-related high-risk injecting behavior among PWID in two separate studies conducted in Sacramento and San Jose, California, cities with quite different syringe exchange models. In both studies associations between direct and indirect syringe exchange and self-reported risk behavior were examined with multivariable logistic regression models. Study 1 assessed effects of a "satellite" home-delivery syringe exchange in Sacramento, while Study 2 evaluated a conventional fixed-site exchange in San Jose. Multivariable analyses revealed 95% and 69% reductions, respectively, in high-risk injection associated with direct use of the SEPs in Sacramento and San Jose, and a 46% reduction associated with indirect use of the SEP in Sacramento. Conclusions/Importance: The very large effect of direct SEP use in Sacramento was likely due in part to home delivery of sterile syringes. While more modest effects were associated with indirect use, such use nevertheless is valuable in reducing the risk of HIV transmission of PWID who are unable or unwilling to visit a syringe exchange.

Assessing the aerosol direct and first indirect effects using ACM/GCM simulation results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H.; Gu, Y.; Xue, Y.; Lu, C. H.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric aerosols have been found to play an important role in global climate change but there are still large uncertainty in evaluating its role in the climate system. The aerosols generally affect global and regional climate through the scattering and the absorption of solar radiation (direct effect) and through their influences on cloud particle, number and sizes (first indirect effect). The indirect effect will further affects cloud water content, cloud top albedo and surface precipitations. In this study, we investigate the global climatic effect of aerosols using a coupled NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and a land surface model (SSiB2) The OPAC (Optical Properties of Aerosols and Clouds) database is used for aerosol effect. The OPAC data provides the optical properties (i.e., the extinction, scattering and absorption coefficient, single-scattering albedo, asymmetry factor and phase function) of ten types of aerosols under various relative humidity conditions for investigating the global direct and first indirect effects of dust aerosols. For indirect forcings due to liquid water, we follow the approach presented by Jiang et al (2011), in which a parameterization of cloud effective radius was calculated to describe its variance with convective strength and aerosol concentration. Since the oceans also play an important role on aerosol climatic effect, we also design a set of simulations using a coupled atmosphere/ocean model (CFS) to evaluate the sensitivity of aerosol effect with two-way atmosphere-ocean interactions.

Strong impacts on aerosol indirect effects from historical oxidant changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafsahl Karset, Inger Helene; Koren Berntsen, Terje; Storelvmo, Trude; Alterskjær, Kari; Grini, Alf; Olivié, Dirk; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Iversen, Trond; Schulz, Michael

2018-06-01

Uncertainties in effective radiative forcings through aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci, also called aerosol indirect effects) contribute strongly to the uncertainty in the total preindustrial-to-present-day anthropogenic forcing. Some forcing estimates of the total aerosol indirect effect are so negative that they even offset the greenhouse gas forcing. This study highlights the role of oxidants in modeling of preindustrial-to-present-day aerosol indirect effects. We argue that the aerosol precursor gases should be exposed to oxidants of its era to get a more correct representation of secondary aerosol formation. Our model simulations show that the total aerosol indirect effect changes from -1.32 to -1.07 W m-2 when the precursor gases in the preindustrial simulation are exposed to preindustrial instead of present-day oxidants. This happens because of a brightening of the clouds in the preindustrial simulation, mainly due to large changes in the nitrate radical (NO3). The weaker oxidative power of the preindustrial atmosphere extends the lifetime of the precursor gases, enabling them to be transported higher up in the atmosphere and towards more remote areas where the susceptibility of the cloud albedo to aerosol changes is high. The oxidation changes also shift the importance of different chemical reactions and produce more condensate, thus increasing the size of the aerosols and making it easier for them to activate as cloud condensation nuclei.

Assessing the indirect effects due to natural hazards on a mesoscale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfurtscheller, C.; Schwarze, R.

2009-04-01

Measuring indirect economic costs and other effects from natural hazards, especially floods in alpine and other mountainous regions, are a necessary part of a comprehensive economic assessment. Their omission seriously affects the relative economic benefits of structural or non structural measures of flood defence. Surpassing controversial, IO-model-based economic estimates, analysing indirect economic effects lead to the key question of identifying and evaluating the drivers of indirect economic effects and resilience to system effects in the regional economy, i.e. at the meso-level. This investigation takes place for the catastrophic floods in summer 2005 in the provinces of Tyrol and Vorarlberg, Austria, which caused an estimated € 670 Mio direct loss on private and public assets and severe interruptions in lifeline services. The paper starts out with differentiating the concept of indirect economic costs from direct costs, examing different temporal (short vs. long-term) and spatial (macro-, meso- vs. microeconomic) system boundaries. It surveys common theories of economic resilience and vulnerability at the regional economy level. Indirect effects at the regional economy level can be defined as interferences of the economic exchange of goods and services triggered by breakdowns of transport lines and critical production inputs. The extent and persistence of indirect effects of natural hazards is not only by parameters of the extreme event, such as duration and amplitude of the flood, but much more by resilience parameters of the regional economy such as size of enterprises, the network structure (linkages) of the regional economy, availability of insurance and relief funds, and the stock of inventory. These effects can only be dissected by means of expert judgement and event studies. This paper presents the results of a survey conducted among business practioneers, members of chamber of commerce, civil protection agencies to identify and scale the drivers of indirect costs triggered by floods on a local and regional scale. We develop a risk point scale and explain how it can be nested into IO-model-based economic tools such as the HAZUS indirect economic loss calculator

Aerosol Indirect Effects on Cirrus Clouds in Global Aerosol-Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Zhang, K.; Wang, Y.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Zhou, C.; Penner, J.; Barahona, D.; Shi, X.

2015-12-01

Cirrus clouds play an important role in regulating the Earth's radiative budget and water vapor distribution in the upper troposphere. Aerosols can act as solution droplets or ice nuclei that promote ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. Anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel and biomass burning activities have substantially perturbed and enhanced concentrations of aerosol particles in the atmosphere. Global aerosol-climate models (GCMs) have now been used to quantify the radiative forcing and effects of aerosols on cirrus clouds (IPCC AR5). However, the estimate uncertainty is very large due to the different representation of ice cloud formation and evolution processes in GCMs. In addition, large discrepancies have been found between model simulations in terms of the spatial distribution of ice-nucleating aerosols, relative humidity, and temperature fluctuations, which contribute to different estimates of the aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds. In this presentation, four GCMs with the start-of-the art representations of cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions are used to estimate the aerosol indirect effects on cirrus clouds and to identify the causes of the discrepancies. The estimated global and annual mean anthropogenic aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds ranges from 0.1 W m-2 to 0.3 W m-2 in terms of the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiation flux, and 0.5-0.6 W m-2 for the TOA longwave flux. Despite the good agreement on global mean, large discrepancies are found at the regional scale. The physics behind the aerosol indirect effect is dramatically different. Our analysis suggests that burden of ice-nucleating aerosols in the upper troposphere, ice nucleation frequency, and relative role of ice formation processes (i.e., homogeneous versus heterogeneous nucleation) play key roles in determining the characteristics of the simulated aerosol indirect effects. In addition to the indirect effect estimate, we also use field campaign measurements and satellite retrievals to evaluate the simulated micro- and macro- physical properties of ice clouds in the four GCMs.

Comparison of genes in apple [Malus x domestica (Borkh) 'Royal Gala'] responding to simulated drought and recovery

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water is the most limiting resource in the environment. During episodes of drought, crop losses can be substantial due to both direct and indirect effects of dehydration. Even irrigation alternatives are not entirely satisfactory towards solving this problem due to their expense and to competition...

Radiative Forcing Due to Major Aerosol Emitting Sectors in China and India

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Streets, David G.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Lu, Zifeng; Faluvegi, Greg

2013-01-01

Understanding the radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic aerosol sources is essential for making effective emission control decisions to mitigate climate change. We examined the net direct plus indirect radiative forcing caused by carbonaceous aerosol and sulfur emissions in key sectors of China and India using the GISS-E2 chemistry-climate model. Diesel trucks and buses (67 mW/ sq. m) and residential biofuel combustion (52 mW/ sq. m) in India have the largest global mean, annual average forcings due mainly to the direct and indirect effects of BC. Emissions from these two sectors in China have near-zero net global forcings. Coal-fired power plants in both countries exert a negative forcing of about -30 mW/ sq. m from production of sulfate. Aerosol forcings are largest locally, with direct forcings due to residential biofuel combustion of 580 mW/ sq. m over India and 416 mW/ sq. m over China, but they extend as far as North America, Europe, and the Arctic

The fuel market effects of biofuel policies and implications for regulations based on lifecycle emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajagopal, Deepak

2013-06-01

The absence of a globally-consistent and binding commitment to reducing greenhouse emissions provides a rationale for partial policies, such as renewable energy mandates, product emission standards, etc to target lifecycle emissions of the regulated products or services. While appealing in principle, regulation of lifecycle emissions presents several practical challenges. Using biofuels as an illustrative example, we highlight some outstanding issues in the design and implementation of life cycle-based policies and discuss potential remedies. We review the literature on emissions due to price effects in fuel markets, which are akin to emissions due to indirect land use change, but are, unlike the latter, ignored under all current life cycle emissions-based regulations. We distinguish the current approaches to regulating indirect emissions into hard and soft approaches and discuss their implications.

Reading the Leaves’ Palm: Leaf Traits and Herbivory along the Microclimatic Gradient of Forest Layers

PubMed Central

Entling, Martin H.; Mantilla-Contreras, Jasmin

2017-01-01

Microclimate in different positions on a host plant has strong direct effects on herbivores. But little is known about indirect effects due to changes of leaf traits. We hypothesized that herbivory increases from upper canopy to lower canopy and understory due to a combination of direct and indirect pathways. Furthermore, we hypothesized that herbivory in the understory differs between tree species in accordance with their leaf traits. We investigated herbivory by leaf chewing insects along the vertical gradient of mixed deciduous forest stands on the broad-leaved tree species Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech) with study sites located along a 140 km long transect. Additionally, we studied juvenile Acer pseudoplatanus L. (sycamore maple) and Carpinus betulus L. (hornbeam) individuals within the understory as a reference of leaf traits in the same microclimate. Lowest levels of herbivory were observed in upper canopies, where temperatures were highest. Temperature was the best predictor for insect herbivory across forest layers in our study. However, the direction was opposite to the generally known positive relationship. Herbivory also varied between the three tree species with lowest levels for F. sylvatica. Leaf carbon content was highest for F. sylvatica and probably indicates higher amounts of phenolic defense compounds. We conclude that the effect of temperature must have been indirect, whereby the expected higher herbivory was suppressed due to unfavorable leaf traits (lower nitrogen content, higher toughness and carbon content) of upper canopy leaves compared to the understory. PMID:28099483

Impact of cannibalism on predator-prey dynamics: size-structured interactions and apparent mutualism.

PubMed

Rudolf, Volker H W

2008-06-01

Direct and indirect interactions between two prey species can strongly alter the dynamics of predator-prey systems. Most predators are cannibalistic, and as a consequence, even systems with only one predator and one prey include two prey types: conspecifics and heterospecifics. The effects of the complex direct and indirect interactions that emerge in such cannibalistic systems are still poorly understood. This study examined how the indirect interaction between conspecific and heterospecific prey affects cannibalism and predation rates and how the direct interactions between both species indirectly alter the effect of the cannibalistic predator. I tested for these effects using larvae of the stream salamanders Eurycea cirrigera (prey) and Pseudotriton ruber (cannibalistic predator) by manipulating the relative densities of the conspecific and heterospecific prey in the presence and absence of the predator in experimental streams. The rates of cannibalism and heterospecific predation were proportional to the respective densities and negatively correlated, indicating a positive indirect interaction between conspecific and heterospecific prey, similar to "apparent mutualism." Direct interactions between prey species did not alter the effect of the predator. Although both types of prey showed a similar 30% reduction in night activity and switch in microhabitat use in response to the presence of the predator, cannibalism rates were three times higher than heterospecific predation rates irrespective of the relative densities of the two types of prey. Cumulative predation risks differed even more due to the 48% lower growth rate of conspecific prey. Detailed laboratory experiments suggest that the 3:1 difference in cannibalism and predation rate was due to the higher efficiency of heterospecific prey in escaping immediate attacks. However, no difference was observed when the predator was a closely related salamander species, Gyrinophilus porphyriticus, indicating that this difference is species specific. This demonstrates that cannibalism can result in the coupling of predator and prey mortality rates that strongly determines the dynamics of predator-prey systems.

Integrated direct/indirect adaptive robust motion trajectory tracking control of pneumatic cylinders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Deyuan; Tao, Guoliang; Zhu, Xiaocong

2013-09-01

This paper studies the precision motion trajectory tracking control of a pneumatic cylinder driven by a proportional-directional control valve. An integrated direct/indirect adaptive robust controller is proposed. The controller employs a physical model based indirect-type parameter estimation to obtain reliable estimates of unknown model parameters, and utilises a robust control method with dynamic compensation type fast adaptation to attenuate the effects of parameter estimation errors, unmodelled dynamics and disturbances. Due to the use of projection mapping, the robust control law and the parameter adaption algorithm can be designed separately. Since the system model uncertainties are unmatched, the recursive backstepping technology is adopted to design the robust control law. Extensive comparative experimental results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller and its performance robustness to parameter variations and sudden disturbances.

Vegetation growth enhancement in urban environments of the Conterminous United States.

PubMed

Jia, Wenxiao; Zhao, Shuqing; Liu, Shuguang

2018-05-19

Cities are natural laboratories for studying vegetation responses to global environmental changes because of their climate, atmospheric, and biogeochemical conditions. However, few holistic studies have been conducted on the impact of urbanization on vegetation growth. We decomposed the overall impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth into direct (replacement of original land surfaces by impervious built-up) and indirect (urban environments) components, using a conceptual framework and remotely-sensed data for 377 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the conterminous United States (CONUS) in 2001, 2006, and 2011. Results showed that urban pixels are often greener than expected given the amount of paved surface they contain. The vegetation growth enhancement due to indirect effects occurred in 88.4%, 90.8% and 92.9% of urban bins in 2001, 2006 and 2011, respectively. By defining offset value as the ratio of the absolute indirect and direct impact, we obtained that growth enhancement due to indirect effects compensated for about 29.2%, 29.5% and 31.0% of the reduced productivity due to loss of vegetated surface area on average in 2001, 2006, and 2011, respectively. Vegetation growth responses to urbanization showed little temporal variation but large regional differences with higher offset value in the western CONUS than in the eastern CONUS. Our study highlights the prevalence of vegetation growth enhancement in urban environments and the necessity of differentiating various impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth, and calls for tailored field experiments to understand the relative contributions of various driving forces to vegetation growth and predict vegetation responses to future global change using cities as harbingers. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Indirect effects of radiation induce apoptosis and neuroinflammation in neuronal SH-SY5Y cells.

PubMed

Saeed, Yasmeen; Xie, Bingjie; Xu, Jin; Wang, Hailong; Hassan, Murtaza; Wang, Rui; Hong, Ma; Hong, Qing; Deng, Yulin

2014-12-01

Recent studies have evaluated the role of direct radiation exposure in neurodegenerative disorders; however, association among indirect effects of radiation and neurodegenerative diseases remains rarely discussed. The objective of this study was to estimate the relative risk of neurodegeneration due to direct and indirect effects of radiation. (60)Co gamma ray was used as source of direct radiation whereas irradiated cell conditioned medium (ICCM) was used to mimic the indirect effect of radiation. To determine the potency of ICCM to inhibit neuronal cells survival colony forming assay was performed. The role of ICCM to induce apoptosis in neuronal SH-SY5Y cells was estimated by TUNEL assay and Annexin V/PI assay. Level of oxidative stress and the concentration of inflammatory cytokines after exposing to direct radiation and ICCM were evaluated by ELISA method. Expression of key apoptotic protein following direct and indirect radiation exposure was investigated by western blot technique. Experimental data manifest that ICCM account loss of cell survival and increase apoptotic induction in neuronal SH-SY5Y cells that was dependent on time and dose. Moreover, ICCM stimulate significant release of inflammatory cytokines i.e., tumor necrosis factor TNF-alpha (P < 0.01), Interleukin-1 (IL-1, P < 0.001), and Interleukin-6 (IL-6, P < 0.001) in neuronal SH-SY5Y cells and elevate the level of oxidative stress (MDA, P < 0.01). Up-regulation of key apoptotic protein expression i.e., Bax, Bid, cytochrome C, caspase-8 and caspase-3 confirms the toxicity of ICCM to neuronal cells. This study provides the evidence that indirect effect of radiation can be as much damaging to neuronal cells as direct radiation exposure can be. Hence, more focused research on estimation risks of indirect effect of radiation to CNS at molecular level may help to reduce the uncertainty about cure and cause of several neurodegenerative disorders.

The indirect effect of emotion dysregulation in terms of negative affect and smoking-related cognitive processes.

PubMed

Johnson, Adrienne L; McLeish, Alison C

2016-02-01

Although negative affect is associated with a number of smoking-related cognitive processes, the mechanisms underlying these associations have yet to be examined. The current study sought to examine the indirect effect of emotion regulation difficulties in terms of the association between negative affect and smoking-related cognitive processes (internal barriers to cessation, negative affect reduction smoking motives, negative affect reduction smoking outcome expectancies). Participants were 126 daily cigarette smokers (70.4% male, Mage=36.5years, SD=13.0; 69.8% Caucasian) who smoked an average of 18.5 (SD=8.7) cigarettes per day and reported moderate nicotine dependence. Formal mediation analyses were conducted using PROCESS to examine the indirect effect of negative affect on internal barriers to cessation and negative affect reduction smoking motives and outcome expectancies through emotion regulation difficulties. After accounting for the effects of gender, daily smoking rate, and anxiety sensitivity, negative affect was indirectly related to internal barriers to cessation and negative affect reduction smoking motives through emotion regulation difficulties. There was no significant indirect effect for negative affect reduction smoking outcome expectancies. These findings suggest that greater negative affect is associated with a desire to smoke to reduce this negative affect and perceptions that quitting smoking will be difficult due to negative emotions because of greater difficulties managing these negative emotions. Thus, emotion regulation difficulties may be an important target for smoking cessation interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Earthworm Effects without Earthworms: Inoculation of Raw Organic Matter with Worm-Worked Substrates Alters Microbial Community Functioning

PubMed Central

Aira, Manuel; Domínguez, Jorge

2011-01-01

Background Earthworms are key organisms in organic matter decomposition because of the interactions they establish with soil microorganisms. They enhance decomposition rates through the joint action of direct effects (i.e. effects due to direct earthworm activity such as digestion, burrowing, etc) and indirect effects (i.e. effects derived from earthworm activities such as cast ageing). Here we test whether indirect earthworm effects affect microbial community functioning in the substrate, as when earthworms are present (i. e., direct effects). Methodology/Principal Findings To address these questions we inoculated fresh organic matter (pig manure) with worm-worked substrates (vermicompost) produced by three different earthworm species. Two doses of each vermicompost were used (2.5 and 10%). We hypothesized that the presence of worm-worked material in the fresh organic matter will result in an inoculum of different microorganisms and nutrients. This inoculum should interact with microbial communities in fresh organic matter, thus promoting modifications similar to those found when earthworms are present. Inoculation of worm-worked substrates provoked significant increases in microbial biomass and enzyme activities (β-glucosidase, cellulase, phosphatase and protease). These indirect effects were similar to, although lower than, those obtained in pig manure with earthworms (direct and indirect earthworm effects). In general, the effects were not dose-dependent, suggesting the existence of a threshold at which they were triggered. Conclusion/Significance Our data reveal that the relationships between earthworms and microorganisms are far from being understood, and suggest the existence of several positive feedbacks during earthworm activity as a result of the interactions between direct and indirect effects, since their combination produces stronger modifications to microbial biomass and enzyme activity. PMID:21298016

Known unknowns: indirect energy effects of information and communication technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horner, Nathaniel C.; Shehabi, Arman; Azevedo, Inês L.

2016-10-01

Background. There has been sustained and growing interest in characterizing the net energy impact of information and communication technology (ICT), which results from indirect effects offsetting (or amplifying) the energy directly consumed by ICT equipment. These indirect effects may be either positive or negative, and there is considerable disagreement as to the direction of this sign as well as the effect magnitude. Literature in this area ranges from studies focused on a single service (such as e-commerce versus traditional retail) to macroeconomic studies attempting to characterize the overall impact of ICT. Methods. We review the literature on the indirect energy effect of ICT found via Google Scholar, our own research, and input from other researchers in the field. The various studies are linked to an effect taxonomy, which is synthesized from several different hierarchies present in the literature. References are further grouped according to ICT service (e.g., e-commerce, telework) and summarized by scope, method, and quantitative and qualitative findings. Review results. Uncertainty persists in understanding the net energy effects of ICT. Results of indirect energy effect studies are highly sensitive to scoping decisions and assumptions made by the analyst. Uncertainty increases as the impact scope broadens, due to complex and interconnected effects. However, there is general agreement that ICT has large energy savings potential, but that the realization of this potential is highly dependent on deployment details and user behavior. Discussion. While the overall net effect of ICT is likely to remain unknown, this review suggests several guidelines for improving research quality in this area, including increased data collection, enhancing traditional modeling studies with sensitivity analysis, greater care in scoping, less confidence in characterizing aggregate impacts, more effort on understanding user behavior, and more contextual integration across the different levels of the effect taxonomy.

Placental Abruption and Perinatal Mortality With Preterm Delivery as a Mediator: Disentangling Direct and Indirect Effects

PubMed Central

Ananth, Cande V.; VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2011-01-01

The authors use recent methodology in causal inference to disentangle the direct and indirect effects that operate through a mediator in an exposure-response association paradigm. They demonstrate how total effects can be partitioned into direct and indirect effects even when the exposure and mediator interact. The impact of bias due to unmeasured confounding on the exposure-response association is assessed through a series of sensitivity analyses. These methods are applied to a problem in perinatal epidemiology to examine the extent to which the effect of abruption on perinatal mortality is mediated through preterm delivery. Data on over 26 million US singleton births (1995–2002) were utilized. Risks of mortality among abruption and nonabruption births were 102.7 and 6.2 per 1,000 births, respectively. Risk ratios of the natural direct and indirect (preterm delivery-mediated) effects of abruption on mortality were 10.18 (95% confidence interval: 9.80, 10.58) and 1.35 (95% confidence interval: 1.33, 1.38), respectively. The proportion of increased mortality risk mediated through preterm delivery was 28.1%, with even higher proportions associated with deliveries at earlier gestational ages. Sensitivity analyses underscore that the qualitative conclusions of some mediated effects and substantial direct effects are reasonably robust to unmeasured confounding of a fairly considerable magnitude. PMID:21430195

Invited commentary: boundless science--putting natural direct and indirect effects in a clearer empirical context.

PubMed

Naimi, Ashley I

2015-07-15

Epidemiologists are increasingly using natural effects for applied mediation analyses, yet 1 key identifying assumption is unintuitive and subject to some controversy. In this issue of the Journal, Jiang and VanderWeele (Am J Epidemiol. 2015;182(2):105-108) formalize the conditions under which the difference method can be used to estimate natural indirect effects. In this commentary, I discuss implications of the controversial "cross-worlds" independence assumption needed to identify natural effects. I argue that with a binary mediator, a simple modification of the authors' approach will provide bounds for natural direct and indirect effect estimates that better reflect the capacity of the available data to support empirical statements on the presence of mediated effects. I discuss complications encountered when odds ratios are used to decompose effects, as well as the implications of incorrectly assuming the absence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders. I note that the former problem can be entirely resolved using collapsible measures of effect, such as risk ratios. In the Appendix, I use previous derivations for natural direct effect bounds on the risk difference scale to provide bounds on the odds ratio scale that accommodate 1) uncertainty due to the cross-world independence assumption and 2) uncertainty due to the cross-world independence assumption and the presence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Known unknowns: indirect energy effects of information and communication technology

DOE PAGES

Horner, Nathaniel C.; Shehabi, Arman; Azevedo, Ines L.

2016-10-05

There has been sustained and growing interest in characterizing the net energy impact of information and communication technology (ICT), which results from indirect effects offsetting (or amplifying) the energy directly consumed by ICT equipment. These indirect effects may be either positive or negative, and there is considerable disagreement as to the direction of this sign as well as the effect magnitude. Literature in this area ranges from studies focused on a single service (such as e-commerce versus traditional retail) to macroeconomic studies attempting to characterize the overall impact of ICT. Methods. We review the literature on the indirect energy effectmore » of ICT found via Google Scholar, our own research, and input from other researchers in the field. The various studies are linked to an effect taxonomy, which is synthesized from several different hierarchies present in the literature. References are further grouped according to ICT service (e.g., e-commerce, telework) and summarized by scope, method, and quantitative and qualitative findings. Review results. Uncertainty persists in understanding the net energy effects of ICT. Results of indirect energy effect studies are highly sensitive to scoping decisions and assumptions made by the analyst. Uncertainty increases as the impact scope broadens, due to complex and interconnected effects. However, there is general agreement that ICT has large energy savings potential, but that the realization of this potential is highly dependent on deployment details and user behavior. Discussion. While the overall net effect of ICT is likely to remain unknown, this review suggests several guidelines for improving research quality in this area, including increased data collection, enhancing traditional modeling studies with sensitivity analysis, greater care in scoping, less confidence in characterizing aggregate impacts, more effort on understanding user behavior, and more contextual integration across the different levels of the effect taxonomy.« less

Known unknowns: indirect energy effects of information and communication technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Horner, Nathaniel C.; Shehabi, Arman; Azevedo, Ines L.

There has been sustained and growing interest in characterizing the net energy impact of information and communication technology (ICT), which results from indirect effects offsetting (or amplifying) the energy directly consumed by ICT equipment. These indirect effects may be either positive or negative, and there is considerable disagreement as to the direction of this sign as well as the effect magnitude. Literature in this area ranges from studies focused on a single service (such as e-commerce versus traditional retail) to macroeconomic studies attempting to characterize the overall impact of ICT. Methods. We review the literature on the indirect energy effectmore » of ICT found via Google Scholar, our own research, and input from other researchers in the field. The various studies are linked to an effect taxonomy, which is synthesized from several different hierarchies present in the literature. References are further grouped according to ICT service (e.g., e-commerce, telework) and summarized by scope, method, and quantitative and qualitative findings. Review results. Uncertainty persists in understanding the net energy effects of ICT. Results of indirect energy effect studies are highly sensitive to scoping decisions and assumptions made by the analyst. Uncertainty increases as the impact scope broadens, due to complex and interconnected effects. However, there is general agreement that ICT has large energy savings potential, but that the realization of this potential is highly dependent on deployment details and user behavior. Discussion. While the overall net effect of ICT is likely to remain unknown, this review suggests several guidelines for improving research quality in this area, including increased data collection, enhancing traditional modeling studies with sensitivity analysis, greater care in scoping, less confidence in characterizing aggregate impacts, more effort on understanding user behavior, and more contextual integration across the different levels of the effect taxonomy.« less

Observed Reduction In Surface Solar Radiation - Aerosol Forcing Versus Cloud Feedback?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liepert, B.

The solar radiation reaching the ground is a key parameter for the climate system. It drives the hydrological cycle and numerous biological processes. Surface solar radi- ation revealed an estimated 7W/m2 or 4% decline at sites worldwide from 1961 to 1990. The strongest decline occurred at the United States sites with 19W/m2 or 10%. Increasing air pollution and hence direct and indirect aerosol effect, as we know today can only explain part of the reduction in solar radiation. Increasing cloud optical thick- ness - possibly due to global warming - is a more likely explanation for the observed reduction in solar radiation in the United States. The analysis of surface solar radiation data will be shown and compared with GCM results of the direct and indirect aerosol effect. It will be argued that the residual declines in surface solar radiation is likely due to cloud feedback.

A review of the consequences of global climate change on human health.

PubMed

Kim, Ki-Hyun; Kabir, Ehsanul; Ara Jahan, Shamin

2014-01-01

The impact of climate change has been significant enough to endanger human health both directly and indirectly via heat stress, degraded air quality, rising sea levels, food and water security, extreme weather events (e.g., floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc.), vulnerable shelter, and population migration. The deterioration of environmental conditions may facilitate the transmission of diarrhea, vector-borne and infectious diseases, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, malnutrition, etc. Indirect effects of climate change such as mental health problems due to stress, loss of homes, economic instability, and forced migration are also unignorably important. Children, the elderly, and communities living in poverty are among the most vulnerable of the harmful effects due to climate change. In this article, we have reviewed the scientific evidence for the human health impact of climate change and analyzed the various diseases in association with changes in the atmospheric environment and climate conditions.

Decomposition of the Total Effect in the Presence of Multiple Mediators and Interactions.

PubMed

Bellavia, Andrea; Valeri, Linda

2018-06-01

Mediation analysis allows decomposing a total effect into a direct effect of the exposure on the outcome and an indirect effect operating through a number of possible hypothesized pathways. Recent studies have provided formal definitions of direct and indirect effects when multiple mediators are of interest and have described parametric and semiparametric methods for their estimation. Investigating direct and indirect effects with multiple mediators, however, can be challenging in the presence of multiple exposure-mediator and mediator-mediator interactions. In this paper we derive a decomposition of the total effect that unifies mediation and interaction when multiple mediators are present. We illustrate the properties of the proposed framework in a secondary analysis of a pragmatic trial for the treatment of schizophrenia. The decomposition is employed to investigate the interplay of side effects and psychiatric symptoms in explaining the effect of antipsychotic medication on quality of life in schizophrenia patients. Our result offers a valuable tool to identify the proportions of total effect due to mediation and interaction when more than one mediator is present, providing the finest decomposition of the total effect that unifies multiple mediators and interactions.

Transient absorption phenomena and related structural transformations in femtosecond laser-excited Si

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudryashov, Sergey I.

2004-09-01

Analysis of processes affecting transient optical absorption and photogeneration of electron-hole plasma in silicon pumped by an intense NIR or visible femtosecond laser pulse has been performed taking into account the most important electron-photon, electron-electron and electron-phonon interactions and, as a result, two main regimes of such laser-matter interaction have been revealed. The first regime is concerned with indirect interband optical absorption in Si, enhanced by a coherent shrinkage of its smallest indirect bandgap due to dynamic Franz-Keldysh effect (DFKE). The second regime takes place due to the critical renormalization of the Si direct bandgap along Λ-axis of its first Brillouin zone because of DFKE and the deformation potential electron-phonon interaction and occurs as intense direct single-photon excitation of electrons into one of the quadruplet of equivalent Λ-valleys in the lowest conduction band, which is split down due to the electron-phonon interaction.

Best cost-effectiveness and worker productivity with initial triple DMARD therapy compared with methotrexate monotherapy in early rheumatoid arthritis: cost-utility analysis of the tREACH trial.

PubMed

de Jong, Pascal H P; Hazes, Johanna M; Buisman, Leander R; Barendregt, Pieternella J; van Zeben, Derkjen; van der Lubbe, Peter A; Gerards, Andreas H; de Jager, Mike H; de Sonnaville, Peter B J; Grillet, Bernard A; Luime, Jolanda J; Weel, Angelique E A M

2016-12-01

To evaluate direct and indirect costs per quality adjusted life year (QALY) for different initial treatment strategies in very early RA. The 1-year data of the treatment in the Rotterdam Early Arthritis Cohort trial were used. Patients with a high probability (>70%) according to their likelihood of progressing to persistent arthritis, based on the prediction model of Visser, were randomized into one of following initial treatment strategies: (A) initial triple DMARD therapy (iTDT) with glucocorticoids (GCs) intramuscular (n = 91); (B) iTDT with an oral GC tapering scheme (n = 93); and (C) initial MTX monotherapy (iMM) with GCs similar to B (n = 97). Data on QALYs, measured with the Dutch EuroQol, and direct and indirect cost were used. Direct costs are costs of treatment and medical consumption, whereas indirect costs are costs due to loss of productivity. Average QALYs (sd) for A, B and C were, respectively, 0.75 (0.12), 0.75 (0.10) and 0.73 (0.13) for Dutch EuroQol. Highest total costs per QALY (sd) were, respectively, €12748 (€18767), €10 380 (€15 608) and €17 408 (€21 828) for strategy A, B and C (P = 0.012, B vs C). Direct as well as indirect costs were higher with iMM (strategy C) compared with iTDT (strategy B). Higher direct costs were due to ∼40% more biologic usage over time. Higher indirect costs, on the other hand, were caused by more long-term sickness and reduction in contract hours. iTDT was >95% cost-effective across all willingness-to-pay thresholds compared with iMM. iTDT was more cost-effective and had better worker productivity compared with iMM. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Workplace Bullying and Work Engagement: A Self-Determination Model.

PubMed

Goodboy, Alan K; Martin, Matthew M; Bolkan, San

2017-06-01

This study modeled motivational mechanisms that explain the negative effects of workplace bullying on work engagement. Guided by self-determination theory, workplace bullying was predicted to decrease worker engagement indirectly, due to the denial of employees' basic psychological needs and their intrinsic motivation to work. From a sample of 243 full-time employees, serial multiple mediation models revealed that the indirect relationships between workplace bullying and work engagement (i.e., vigor, dedication, absorption) were serially mediated by basic psychological needs and intrinsic motivation to work. In support of self-determination theory, this study revealed that workplace bullying indirectly disengages employees from their work by denying them of their autonomy and relatedness needs and thwarting their motivation to perform work in a fulfilling way.

Aerosol indirect effects on summer precipitation in a regional climate model for the Euro-Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Da Silva, Nicolas; Mailler, Sylvain; Drobinski, Philippe

2018-03-01

Aerosols affect atmospheric dynamics through their direct and semi-direct effects as well as through their effects on cloud microphysics (indirect effects). The present study investigates the indirect effects of aerosols on summer precipitation in the Euro-Mediterranean region, which is located at the crossroads of air masses carrying both natural and anthropogenic aerosols. While it is difficult to disentangle the indirect effects of aerosols from the direct and semi-direct effects in reality, a numerical sensitivity experiment is carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which allows us to isolate indirect effects, all other effects being equal. The Mediterranean hydrological cycle has often been studied using regional climate model (RCM) simulations with parameterized convection, which is the approach we adopt in the present study. For this purpose, the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysics scheme is used in a pair of simulations run at 50 km resolution with extremely high and low aerosol concentrations. An additional pair of simulations has been performed at a convection-permitting resolution (3.3 km) to examine these effects without the use of parameterized convection. While the reduced radiative flux due to the direct effects of the aerosols is already known to reduce precipitation amounts, there is still no general agreement on the sign and magnitude of the aerosol indirect forcing effect on precipitation, with various processes competing with each other. Although some processes tend to enhance precipitation amounts, some others tend to reduce them. In these simulations, increased aerosol loads lead to weaker precipitation in the parameterized (low-resolution) configuration. The fact that a similar result is obtained for a selected area in the convection-permitting (high-resolution) configuration allows for physical interpretations. By examining the key variables in the model outputs, we propose a causal chain that links the aerosol effects on microphysics to their simulated effect on precipitation, essentially through reduction of the radiative heating of the surface and corresponding reductions of surface temperature, resulting in increased atmospheric stability in the presence of high aerosol loads.

The potential indirect effects among plants via shared hummingbird pollinators are structured by phenotypic similarity.

PubMed

Bergamo, Pedro Joaquim; Wolowski, Marina; Maruyama, Pietro Kiyoshi; Vizentin-Bugoni, Jeferson; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Sazima, Marlies

2017-07-01

Plant species within communities may overlap in pollinators' use and influence visitation patterns of shared pollinators, potentially engaging in indirect interactions (e.g., facilitation or competition). While several studies have explored the mechanisms regulating insect-pollination networks, there is a lack of studies on bird-pollination systems, particularly in species-rich tropical areas. Here, we evaluated if phenotypic similarity, resource availability (floral abundance), evolutionary relatedness and flowering phenology affect the potential for indirect effects via shared pollinators in hummingbird-pollinated plant species within four communities in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. Among the evaluated factors, phenotypic similarity (corolla length and anther height) was the most important variable, while resource availability (floral abundance) had a secondary importance. On the other hand, evolutionary relatedness and flowering phenology were less important, which altogether highlights the relevance of convergent evolution and that the contribution of a plant to the diet of the pollinators of another plant is independent of the level of temporal overlap in flowering in this tropical system. Interestingly, our findings contrast with results from multiple insect-pollinated plant communities, mostly from temperate regions, in which floral abundance was the most important driver, followed by evolutionary relatedness and phenotypic similarity. We propose that these contrasting results are due to high level of specialization inherent to tropical hummingbird-pollination systems. Moreover, our results demonstrated that factors defining linkage rules of plant-hummingbird networks also determinate plant-plant potential indirect effects. Future studies are needed to test if these findings can be generalized to other highly specialized systems. Overall, our results have important implications for the understanding of ecological processes due resource sharing in mutualistic systems. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Prescribed fire and timber harvest effects on terrestrial salamander abundance, detectability, and microhabitat use

Treesearch

Katherine M. O' Donnell; Frank R. Thompson; Raymond D. Semlitsch

2015-01-01

Prescribed fire and timber harvest are anthropogenic disturbances that modify resource availability and ecosystem structure, and can affect wildlife both directly and indirectly. Terrestrial salamanders are effective indicators of forest health due to their high abundance and sensitivity to microclimatic conditions. Given their ecological importance, it is critical to...

Direct and indirect comparison meta-analysis of levetiracetam versus phenytoin or valproate for convulsive status epilepticus.

PubMed

Brigo, Francesco; Bragazzi, Nicola; Nardone, Raffaele; Trinka, Eugen

2016-11-01

The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis of published studies to directly compare intravenous (IV) levetiracetam (LEV) with IV phenytoin (PHT) or IV valproate (VPA) as second-line treatment of status epilepticus (SE), to indirectly compare intravenous IV LEV with IV VPA using common reference-based indirect comparison meta-analysis, and to verify whether results of indirect comparisons are consistent with results of head-to-head randomized controlled trials (RCTs) directly comparing IV LEV with IV VPA. Random-effects Mantel-Haenszel meta-analyses to obtain odds ratios (ORs) for efficacy and safety of LEV versus VPA and LEV or VPA versus PHT were used. Adjusted indirect comparisons between LEV and VPA were used. Two RCTs comparing LEV with PHT (144 episodes of SE) and 3 RCTs comparing VPA with PHT (227 episodes of SE) were included. Direct comparisons showed no difference in clinical seizure cessation, neither between VPA and PHT (OR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.57 to 2.03) nor between LEV and PHT (OR: 1.18; 95% CI: 0.50 to 2.79). Indirect comparisons showed no difference between LEV and VPA for clinical seizure cessation (OR: 1.16; 95% CI: 0.45 to 2.97). Results of indirect comparisons are consistent with results of a recent RCT directly comparing LEV with VPA. The absence of a statistically significant difference in direct and indirect comparisons is due to the lack of sufficient statistical power to detect a difference. Conducting a RCT that has not enough people to detect a clinically important difference or to estimate an effect with sufficient precision can be regarded a waste of time and resources and may raise several ethical concerns, especially in RCT on SE. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate Impacts of Ice Nucleation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gettelman, Andrew; Liu, Xiaohong; Barahona, Donifan; Lohmann, Ulrike; Chen, Celia

2012-01-01

Several different ice nucleation parameterizations in two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to understand the effects of ice nucleation on the mean climate state, and the Aerosol Indirect Effects (AIE) of cirrus clouds on climate. Simulations have a range of ice microphysical states that are consistent with the spread of observations, but many simulations have higher present-day ice crystal number concentrations than in-situ observations. These different states result from different parameterizations of ice cloud nucleation processes, and feature different balances of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. Black carbon aerosols have a small (0.06 Wm(exp-2) and not statistically significant AIE when included as ice nuclei, for nucleation efficiencies within the range of laboratory measurements. Indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds occur as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic sulfur emissions with different mechanisms important in different models. In one model this is due to increases in homogeneous nucleation fraction, and in the other due to increases in heterogeneous nucleation with coated dust. The magnitude of the effect is the same however. The resulting ice AIE does not seem strongly dependent on the balance between homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation. Regional effects can reach several Wm2. Indirect effects are slightly larger for those states with less homogeneous nucleation and lower ice number concentration in the base state. The total ice AIE is estimated at 0.27 +/- 0.10 Wm(exp-2) (1 sigma uncertainty). This represents a 20% offset of the simulated total shortwave AIE for ice and liquid clouds of 1.6 Wm(sup-2).

Indirect adaptive soft computing based wavelet-embedded control paradigms for WT/PV/SOFC in a grid/charging station connected hybrid power system.

PubMed

Mumtaz, Sidra; Khan, Laiq; Ahmed, Saghir; Bader, Rabiah

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on the indirect adaptive tracking control of renewable energy sources in a grid-connected hybrid power system. The renewable energy systems have low efficiency and intermittent nature due to unpredictable meteorological conditions. The domestic load and the conventional charging stations behave in an uncertain manner. To operate the renewable energy sources efficiently for harvesting maximum power, instantaneous nonlinear dynamics should be captured online. A Chebyshev-wavelet embedded NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT (maximum power point tracking) control paradigm is proposed for variable speed wind turbine-permanent synchronous generator (VSWT-PMSG). A Hermite-wavelet incorporated NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT control strategy for photovoltaic (PV) system to extract maximum power and indirect adaptive tracking control scheme for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) is developed. A comprehensive simulation test-bed for a grid-connected hybrid power system is developed in Matlab/Simulink. The robustness of the suggested indirect adaptive control paradigms are evaluated through simulation results in a grid-connected hybrid power system test-bed by comparison with conventional and intelligent control techniques. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed control paradigms.

Indirect adaptive soft computing based wavelet-embedded control paradigms for WT/PV/SOFC in a grid/charging station connected hybrid power system

PubMed Central

Khan, Laiq; Ahmed, Saghir; Bader, Rabiah

2017-01-01

This paper focuses on the indirect adaptive tracking control of renewable energy sources in a grid-connected hybrid power system. The renewable energy systems have low efficiency and intermittent nature due to unpredictable meteorological conditions. The domestic load and the conventional charging stations behave in an uncertain manner. To operate the renewable energy sources efficiently for harvesting maximum power, instantaneous nonlinear dynamics should be captured online. A Chebyshev-wavelet embedded NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT (maximum power point tracking) control paradigm is proposed for variable speed wind turbine-permanent synchronous generator (VSWT-PMSG). A Hermite-wavelet incorporated NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT control strategy for photovoltaic (PV) system to extract maximum power and indirect adaptive tracking control scheme for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) is developed. A comprehensive simulation test-bed for a grid-connected hybrid power system is developed in Matlab/Simulink. The robustness of the suggested indirect adaptive control paradigms are evaluated through simulation results in a grid-connected hybrid power system test-bed by comparison with conventional and intelligent control techniques. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed control paradigms. PMID:28877191

Cod Gadus morhua and climate change: processes, productivity and prediction.

PubMed

Brander, K M

2010-11-01

Environmental factors act on individual fishes directly and indirectly. The direct effects on rates and behaviour can be studied experimentally and in the field, particularly with the advent of ever smarter tags for tracking fishes and their environment. Indirect effects due to changes in food, predators, parasites and diseases are much more difficult to estimate and predict. Climate can affect all life-history stages through direct and indirect processes and although the consequences in terms of growth, survival and reproductive output can be monitored, it is often difficult to determine the causes. Investigation of cod Gadus morhua populations across the whole North Atlantic Ocean has shown large-scale patterns of change in productivity due to lower individual growth and condition, caused by large-scale climate forcing. If a population is being heavily exploited then a drop in productivity can push it into decline unless the level of fishing is reduced: the idea of a stable carrying capacity is a dangerous myth. Overexploitation can be avoided by keeping fishing mortality low and by monitoring and responding rapidly to changes in productivity. There are signs that this lesson has been learned and that G. morhua will continue to be a mainstay of the human diet. © 2010 The Author. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Insulation materials for commercial buildings in North America: An assessment of lifetime energy and environmental impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biswas, Kaushik; Shrestha, Som S.; Bhandari, Mahabir S.

In the United States, commercial buildings accounted for about 19 percent of the total primary energy consumption in 2012. Further, 29 percent of the site energy in commercial buildings was consumed for space heating and cooling. Applying insulation materials to building envelopes is an effective way of reducing energy consumption for heating and cooling, and limiting the negative environmental impacts from the buildings sector. While insulation materials have a net positive impact on the environment due to reduced energy consumption, they also have some negative impacts associated with their 'embodied energy'. The total lifetime environmental impacts of insulation materials aremore » a summation of: (1) direct impacts due to their embodied energy, and (2) indirect or impacts avoided due to the reduced building energy consumption. Here, assessments of the lifetime environmental impacts of selected insulation materials are presented. Direct and indirect environmental impact factors were estimated for the cradle-to-grave insulation life cycle stages. Impact factors were calculated for two categories: primary energy consumption and global warming potential. The direct impact factors were calculated using data from existing literature and a life cycle assessment software. The indirect impact factors were calculated through simulations of a set of standard whole-building models.« less

Insulation materials for commercial buildings in North America: An assessment of lifetime energy and environmental impacts

DOE PAGES

Biswas, Kaushik; Shrestha, Som S.; Bhandari, Mahabir S.; ...

2015-12-12

In the United States, commercial buildings accounted for about 19 percent of the total primary energy consumption in 2012. Further, 29 percent of the site energy in commercial buildings was consumed for space heating and cooling. Applying insulation materials to building envelopes is an effective way of reducing energy consumption for heating and cooling, and limiting the negative environmental impacts from the buildings sector. While insulation materials have a net positive impact on the environment due to reduced energy consumption, they also have some negative impacts associated with their 'embodied energy'. The total lifetime environmental impacts of insulation materials aremore » a summation of: (1) direct impacts due to their embodied energy, and (2) indirect or impacts avoided due to the reduced building energy consumption. Here, assessments of the lifetime environmental impacts of selected insulation materials are presented. Direct and indirect environmental impact factors were estimated for the cradle-to-grave insulation life cycle stages. Impact factors were calculated for two categories: primary energy consumption and global warming potential. The direct impact factors were calculated using data from existing literature and a life cycle assessment software. The indirect impact factors were calculated through simulations of a set of standard whole-building models.« less

Department of Defense Interface Standard Electromagnetic Environmental Effects Requirements for Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-12-19

effective tool in evaluating IMI. A5.2.2 Shipboard internal electromagnetic environment (EME). For ship applications, electric fields (peak V/m-rms...effects waveform parameters ........................................ 9 MIL-STD-464A v CONTENTS Page TABLES 2B Electromagnetic fields from near...blasting of hardware. 3.8 Lightning indirect effects. Electrical transients induced by lightning due to coupling of electromagnetic fields . 3.9

Facilitation drives 65 years of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butterfield, Bradley J.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Turner, Raymond M.; Briggs, John M.

2010-01-01

Ecological processes of low-productivity ecosystems have long been considered to be driven by abiotic controls with biotic interactions playing an insignificant role. However, existing studies present conflicting evidence concerning the roles of these factors, in part due to the short temporal extent of most data sets and inability to test indirect effects of environmental variables modulated by biotic interactions. Using structural equation modeling to analyze 65 years of perennial vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert, we found that precipitation had a stronger positive effect on recruitment beneath existing canopies than in open microsites due to reduced evaporation rates. Variation in perennial canopy cover had additional facilitative effects on juvenile recruitment, which was indirectly driven by effects of density and precipitation on cover. Mortality was strongly influenced by competition as indicated by negative density-dependence, whereas precipitation had no effect. The combined direct, indirect, and interactive facilitative effects of precipitation and cover on recruitment were substantial, as was the effect of competition on mortality, providing strong evidence for dual control of community dynamics by climate and biotic interactions. Through an empirically derived simulation model, we also found that the positive feedback of density on cover produces unique temporal abundance patterns, buffering changes in abundance from high frequency variation in precipitation, amplifying effects of low frequency variation, and decoupling community abundance from precipitation patterns at high abundance. Such dynamics should be generally applicable to low-productivity systems in which facilitation is important and can only be understood within the context of long-term variation in climatic patterns. This predictive model can be applied to better manage low-productivity ecosystems, in which variation in biogeochemical processes and trophic dynamics may be driven by positive density-dependent feedbacks that influence temporal abundance and productivity patterns.

Quantifying the balance between bycatch and predator or competitor release for nontarget species.

PubMed

Aalto, Emilius A; Baskett, Marissa L

2013-07-01

If a species is bycatch in a fishery targeted at its competitor or predator, it experiences both direct anthropogenic mortality and indirect positive effects through species interactions. If the species involved interact strongly, the release from competition or predation can counteract or exceed the negative effects of bycatch. We used a set of two- and three-species community modules to analyze the relative importance of species interactions when modeling the overall effect of harvest with bycatch on a nontarget species. To measure the trade-off between direct mortality and indirect positive effects, we developed a "bycatch transition point" metric to determine, for different scenarios, what levels of bycatch shift overall harvest impact from positive to negative. Under strong direct competition with a targeted competitor, release from competition due to harvest leads to a net increase in abundance even under moderate levels of bycatch. For a three-species model with a shared obligate predator, the release from apparent competition exceeds direct competitive release and outweighs the decrease from bycatch mortality under a wide range of parameters. Therefore, in communities where a shared predator forms a strong link between the target and nontarget species, the effects of indirect interactions on populations can be larger than those of direct interactions. The bycatch transition point metric can be used for tightly linked species to evaluate the relative strengths of positive indirect effects and negative anthropogenic impacts such as bycatch, habitat degradation, and introduction of invasive species.

Indirect choroidal ruptures: aetiological factors, patterns of ocular damage, and final visual outcome.

PubMed Central

Wood, C M; Richardson, J

1990-01-01

Indirect choroidal ruptures result from blunt ocular trauma and have a pathognomonic fundal appearance. We analysed a group of 30 patients with indirect choroidal ruptures with specific reference to the circumstances of the injury, the pattern of ocular damage, the cause of any visual loss, and the final visual outcome. Using this analysis we deduce a pathogenetic explanation for the characteristic fundus signs in patients with indirect choroidal ruptures. The majority of cases were young males injured during sport or by an assault, a minority were injured at work. Diffuse nonfocal impact injuries due to punches were associated with ruptures concentric with and adjacent to the optic disc. Focal impact injuries, due to projectiles, showed more extensive ocular damage. Seventeen of 30 patients regained 6/12 vision after injury. Injuries due to projectiles and temporally situated ruptures were associated with a poorer visual outcome than others. Macular damage was the commonest cause of visual loss, principally due to pigmentary maculopathy, traumatic inner retinal damage, and choroidal neovascular membranes rather than direct focal damage by the rupture. Images PMID:2337545

A common reference-based indirect comparison meta-analysis of eslicarbazepine versus lacosamide as add on treatments for focal epilepsy.

PubMed

Brigo, Francesco; Trinka, Eugen; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Nardone, Raffaele; Milan, Alberto; Grillo, Elisabetta

2016-11-01

Eslicarbazepine acetate (ESL) and lacosamide (LCM) have recently emerged as add-on treatments in patients with focal epilepsy experiencing seizures despite adequate monotherapy. Both drugs enhance slow inactivation of voltage-gated sodium channels. To date no randomized controlled trial (RCT) has directly compared ESL with LCM as add-on treatments for focal epilepsy. Our aim was to indirectly compare the efficacy of ESL and LCM used as add-on treatments in patients with focal epilepsy using common reference-based indirect comparison meta-analysis. We systematically searched RCTs in which ESL or LCM has been used as add-on treatment in patients with focal epilepsy and compared with placebo. Following outcomes were considered: ≥50% reduction in seizure frequency; seizure freedom; treatment withdrawal for any reason; ≥25% increase in seizure frequency. Random-effects Mantel-Haenszel meta-analyses were performed to obtain odds ratios (ORs) for the efficacy of ESL or LCM versus placebo. Adjusted indirect comparisons were then made between ESL and LCM using the obtained results, and comparing the minimum and the highest effective recommended daily dose of each drug. Eight studies were included. Indirect comparisons adjusted for dose-effect showed no difference between ESL and LCM for responder rate, seizure freedom, and withdrawal rates. We could not assess increase in seizure frequency due to lack of data. Indirect comparisons failed to find a significant difference in efficacy between add-on ESL and LCM in patients with focal epilepsy. Direct head-to-head clinical trials comparing ESL with LCM as add-on antiepileptic treatment are required to confirm these results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect milk losses due to clinical mastitis in dairy cattle.

PubMed

Detilleux, J; Kastelic, J P; Barkema, H W

2015-03-01

Milk losses associated with mastitis can be attributed to either effects of pathogens per se (i.e., direct losses) or effects of the immune response triggered by intramammary infection (indirect losses). The distinction is important in terms of mastitis prevention and treatment. Regardless, the number of pathogens is often unknown (particularly in field studies), making it difficult to estimate direct losses, whereas indirect losses can be approximated by measuring the association between increased somatic cell count (SCC) and milk production. An alternative is to perform a mediation analysis in which changes in milk yield are allocated into their direct and indirect components. We applied this method on data for clinical mastitis, milk and SCC test-day recordings, results of bacteriological cultures (Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus uberis, coagulase-negative staphylococci, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, and streptococci other than Strep. dysgalactiae and Strep. uberis), and cow characteristics. Following a diagnosis of clinical mastitis, the cow was treated and changes (increase or decrease) in milk production before and after a diagnosis were interpreted counterfactually. On a daily basis, indirect changes, mediated by SCC increase, were significantly different from zero for all bacterial species, with a milk yield decrease (ranging among species from 4 to 33g and mediated by an increase of 1000 SCC/mL/day) before and a daily milk increase (ranging among species from 2 to 12g and mediated by a decrease of 1000 SCC/mL/day) after detection. Direct changes, not mediated by SCC, were only different from zero for coagulase-negative staphylococci before diagnosis (72g per day). We concluded that mixed structural equation models were useful to estimate direct and indirect effects of the presence of clinical mastitis on milk yield. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Indirect facilitation becomes stronger with seedling age in a degraded seasonally dry forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, Romina C.; Renison, Daniel

2016-01-01

In seasonally dry forests direct facilitation by woody species due to amelioration of harsh abiotic conditions could be important during germination and early establishment of tree seedlings, and under some species but not others. Recent research suggests that at later stages facilitation by woody species may be indirect due to protection of saplings from herbivores, implying that under absence of herbivores reforestation programs may plant saplings in unprotected open sites. We used the native tree Lithraea molleoides from central Argentina as a model species to test this hypothesis. We performed a seeding and planting experiment simulating early and late establishment respectively, which included 234 study plots situated in herbaceous, shrub and tree patches of differing species composition and under two herbivore treatments (grazed and ungrazed) and replicated at three sites. Seedling counts averaged 0.82% of the sown seeds after 6 months, were highest under shrubs and lowest in open patches, and were influenced by woody species composition only in tree patches (all P values < 0.05). At seedling stages we detected no influence of herbivory (P = 0.4) nor of indirect facilitation due to herbivory (herbivory × patch type P = 0.7). Survival of planted saplings was 53% after 3 years and over winter dieback affected 76% of the saplings. At sapling stages we found an increasing importance of indirect facilitation through protection from herbivores, as we recorded the highest sapling survival and growth at tree and shrub patches and the lowest in open patches (all P values < 0.001), and a negative effect of livestock (P < 0.001) mainly on the open patches (herbivory × patch type P = 0.07 and P = 0.001 for survival and growth, respectively). We found no significant influence of woody species composition on sapling survival and growth (all P values > 0.05). We conclude that direct facilitation is involved at all studied stages while indirect facilitation becomes increasingly important at the sapling stage.

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program May 2003 Intensive Operations Period Examining Aerosol Properties and Radiative Influences: Preface to Special Section

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferrare, Richard; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Ogren, John; Schmid, Beat; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Sheridan, Pat

2006-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols influence climate by scattering and absorbing radiation in clear air (direct effects) and by serving as cloud condensation nuclei, modifying the microphysical properties of clouds, influencing radiation and precipitation development (indirect effects). Much of present uncertainty in forcing of climate change is due to uncertainty in the relations between aerosol microphysical and optical properties and their radiative influences (direct effects) and between microphysical properties and their ability to serve as cloud condensation nuclei at given supersaturations (indirect effects). This paper introduces a special section that reports on a field campaign conducted at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site in North Central Oklahoma in May, 2003, examining these relations using in situ airborne measurements and surface-, airborne-, and space-based remote sensing.

Indirect effects of heavy metals on parasites may cause shifts in snail species compositions.

PubMed

Lefcort, H; Aguon, M Q; Bond, K A; Chapman, K R; Chaquette, R; Clark, J; Kornachuk, P; Lang, B Z; Martin, J C

2002-07-01

We studied the direct and indirect effects of pollution on the distributions and abundances of two closely related species of pulmonate freshwater snails. Physella columbiana is more numerous at heavy metal-polluted lakes, and Lymnaea palustris is more numerous at reference lakes. Both species are present at all sites, as are predatory bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus). The direct effects examined included the snails' growth and reproduction in both the presence and absence of heavy metals and their short-term survival when exposed to large concentrations of heavy metals. The indirect effects were the species' ability to elude capture by sunfish and the diversity and abundance of parasites within the snails. We found that heavy metals had little direct effect on growth and reproduction and that both species acquired similar levels of metals in their tissues. Interestingly, P. columbiana (the more abundant species in polluted lakes) actually exhibited higher recruitment in the absence of metals than did L. palustris (reference lakes). L. palustris has life history characteristics that favor increased growth and reduced reproduction. These characteristics resulted in decreased predation of adults by gape-limited predators and a greater ability to cope with heavy parasite burdens. P. columbiana exhibited slower growth, which resulted in increased predation although higher reproduction rates may compensate.The major effect of heavy metals on species distributions was indirect on the snails' parasites. Parasites appeared to be very susceptible to metals, and this resulted in lower parasite diversity and intensities at polluted sites for both species of snails. P. columbiana may only be able to outcompete L. palustris at polluted sites due to the indirect effects of heavy metals; the negative effect of heavy metals on parasites, and a proposed negative effect of metals on the foraging ability of sunfish that favors the faster-reproducing P. columbiana.

Thrombin products: economic impact of immune-mediated coagulopathies and practical formulary considerations.

PubMed

Voils, Stacy A

2009-07-01

Thrombin has demonstrated utility in aiding surgical hemostasis since its introduction more than 60 years ago. It is used across a wide variety of surgical procedures by virtually every specialty. Only recently have new equally effective and safe products entered the market, causing decision makers to evaluate formulary selection among products with otherwise modest differences. This evaluation includes identifying costs beyond those of acquisition and storage, as well as indirect factors such as monitoring or specialized distribution requirements. One factor to consider specifically in selection of topical thrombin products is the potential for patients to develop an immune-mediated coagulopathy (IMC) after exposure to bovine-derived thrombin. Costs due to adverse drug events fall into the category of indirect costs and, in some instances, can be substantial if bleeding due to IMC occurs.

Modeling prescribed fire impacts on local to regional air quality and potential climate effects

EPA Science Inventory

Biomass burning, including wildfires and prescribed burns, are of increasing concern due to the potential impacts on ambient air quality. The direct and indirect radiative forcings associated the particulate matter from biomass burning are also raising questions regarding the pot...

An exploration of the hypothesis that testosterone is implicated in the psychological functioning of women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS).

PubMed

Barry, J A; Qu, F; Hardiman, P J

2018-01-01

One of the diagnostic features of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is elevation of the androgen, testosterone. It is known that women with PCOS are more likely to suffer from psychological problems, especially anxiety and depression, than other women. However, little is known of how much of this is due to testosterone, and if so, what the mechanism(s) might be. This study explores the hypothesis that testosterone impacts women with PCOS both directly and indirectly, via testosterone currently in the bloodstream and through prenatal exposure. It is hypothesised that direct effects occur when testosterone acts directly upon receptors; indirect effects occur where the impact of testosterone is mediated via another variable; activational effects are ephemeral and are caused by testosterone in the bloodstream; organizational effects occur prenatally and cause permanent changes. Four pathways are hypothesised in this paper: 1/ a direct and activational pathway which improves mental rotation ability; 2/ an indirect and activational pathway, whereby distress is caused when the physiological symptoms of testosterone are experienced as embarrassing or otherwise disturbing; 3/ an indirect and organizational effect on mood, where elevated prenatal testosterone predisposes women with PCOS to low blood sugar levels and thus low mood; 4/ and finally, it is suggested that the pathway from biology to psychology can be travelled in reverse, with a direct activational effect of relaxation training on the reduction of adrenal androgens. Testing these hypotheses has important implications for our understanding of PCOS, and our ability to treat this condition more effectively. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Global change effects on plant-insect interactions: The role of phytochemistry

Treesearch

Mary A. Jamieson; Laura A. Burkle; Jessamyn S. Manson; Justin B. Runyon; Amy M. Trowbridge; Joseph Zientek

2017-01-01

Natural and managed ecosystems are undergoing rapid environmental change due to a growing human population and associated increases in industrial and agricultural activity. Global environmental change directly and indirectly impacts insect herbivores and pollinators. In this review, we highlight recent research examining how environmental change factors affect plant...

The importance of indirect costs in primary cardiovascular disease prevention: can we save lives and money with statins?

PubMed

Grover, Steven A; Ho, Vivian; Lavoie, Frédéric; Coupal, Louis; Zowall, Hanna; Pilote, Louise

2003-02-10

The losses in productivity due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) are substantial but rarely considered in health economic analyses. We compared the cost-effectiveness of lipid level modification in the primary prevention of CVD with and without these indirect costs. We used the Cardiovascular Life Expectancy Model to estimate the long-term benefits and cost-effectiveness of lipid level modification with atorvastatin calcium, including 28% and 38% reductions in total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, respectively, and a 5.5% increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level. The direct costs included all medical care costs associated with CVD. The indirect costs represented the loss of employment income and the decreased value of housekeeping services after different manifestations of CVD. All costs were expressed in 2000 Canadian dollars. When only direct medical care costs were considered, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for lifelong therapy with atorvastatin calcium, 10 mg/d, were generally positive, ranging from a few thousand to nearly $20 000 per year of life saved. When the societal point of view was adopted and indirect costs were included, the total costs were generally negative, representing substantial cost savings (up to $50 000) and increased life expectancy for most groups of individuals. Lipid therapy with statins can reduce CVD morbidity and mortality as demonstrated in a number of clinical trials. Adding the indirect CVD costs associated with productivity losses at work and home can result in forecasted cost savings to society as a whole such that lipid therapy could potentially save lives and money.

Maternal education, birth weight, and infant mortality in the United States.

PubMed

Gage, Timothy B; Fang, Fu; O'Neill, Erin; Dirienzo, Greg

2013-04-01

This research determines whether the observed decline in infant mortality with socioeconomic level, operationalized as maternal education (dichotomized as college or more, versus high school or less), is due to its "indirect" effect (operating through birth weight) and/or to its "direct" effect (independent of birth weight). The data used are the 2001 U.S. national African American, Mexican American, and European American birth cohorts by sex. The analysis explores the birth outcomes of infants undergoing normal and compromised fetal development separately by using covariate density defined mixture of logistic regressions (CDDmlr). Among normal births, mean birth weight increases significantly (by 27-108 g) with higher maternal education. Mortality declines significantly (by a factor of 0.40-0.96) through the direct effect of education. The indirect effect of education among normal births is small but significant in three cohorts. Furthermore, the indirect effect of maternal education tends to increase mortality despite improved birth weight. Among compromised births, education has small and inconsistent effects on birth weight and infant mortality. Overall, our results are consistent with the view that the decrease in infant death by socioeconomic level is not mediated by improved birth weight. Interventions targeting birth weight may not result in lower infant mortality.

Effect of prior performance on subsequent performance evaluation by field independent-dependent raters.

PubMed

Sisco, Howard; Leventhal, Gloria

2007-12-01

The importance of accurate performance appraisals is central to many aspects of personnel activities in organizations. This study examined threats due to past performance to accuracy of evaluation of subsequent performance by raters differing in scores on field dependence. 162 college students were classified as Field-dependent (n = 81) or Field-independent (n = 81), using a median split on the Group Embedded Figures Test. Past performance (a lecture) was good or poor, presented directly via a videotape or indirectly via a written evaluation to the Field-independent or Field-dependent groups. Analysis indicated the hypothesized contrast effect (ratings in the opposite direction from that of prior ratings) in the Direct condition and an unexpected, albeit smaller, contrast effect in the Indirect condition. There were also differential effects of performance, presentation, and field dependency on rating of lecturer's style and ability.

PTSD symptoms and suicide risk in veterans: Serial indirect effects via depression and anger.

PubMed

McKinney, Jessica M; Hirsch, Jameson K; Britton, Peter C

2017-05-01

Suicide rates are higher in veterans compared to the general population, perhaps due to trauma exposure. Previous literature highlights depressive symptoms and anger as contributors to suicide risk. PTSD symptoms may indirectly affect suicide risk by increasing the severity of such cognitive-emotional factors. A sample of community dwelling veterans (N=545) completed online surveys, including the PTSD Checklist-Military Version, Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised, Multidimensional Health Profile-Psychosocial Functioning, and Differential Emotions Scale -IV. Bivariate and serial mediation analyses were conducted to test for direct and indirect effects of PTSD symptoms on suicide risk. In bivariate analyses, PTSD symptoms, depression, anger, and internal hostility were positively related to suicide risk. In serial mediation analyses, there was a significant total effect of PTSD symptoms on suicide risk in both models. PTSD symptoms were also indirectly related to suicidal behavior via depression and internal hostility, and via internal hostility alone. Anger was not a significant mediator. Our cross-sectional sample was predominantly White and male; prospective studies with diverse veterans are needed. Our findings may have implications for veteran suicide prevention. The effects of PTSD and depression on anger, particularly internal hostility, are related to suicide risk, suggesting a potential mechanism of action for the PTSD-suicide linkage. A multi-faceted therapeutic approach, targeting depression and internal hostility, via cognitive-behavioral techniques such as behavioral activation and cognitive restructuring, may reduce suicide risk in veterans who have experienced trauma. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Indirect cost assessment in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA): comparison of data from the health economic patient questionnaire HEQ-RA and insurance claims data.

PubMed

Merkesdal, Sonja; Ruof, Joerg; Huelsemann, Jan Leo; Mittendorf, Thomas; Handelmann, Silke; Mau, Wilfried; Zeidler, Henning

2005-04-15

To render information on the accuracy of patient-reported indirect cost data compared with payer-derived data of the real indirect costs on a patient-by-patient basis concerning disease-related productivity losses in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The assessment of indirect cost data was part of a clinical, multicenter, randomized RA trial. A total of 234 patients of working age with a diagnosis of RA (according to 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria) were recruited. Demographics of the cohort were mean age 53 years, mean disease duration 8 years, 76% were women, and all had membership in the regional statutory health insurance plan. Every 3 months corresponding indirect cost data were derived for the cohort from a health economic questionnaire for cost assessment in patients with RA and the payer's database over a period of 18 months. Comparative statistical analyses were performed between patient-reported and insurance claims data. The mean annual productivity losses due to sick leave amounted to 14 and 17 days per patient (questionnaire versus payer data), and productivity losses due to work disability amounted to 3 days (both); monetary valuation renders overall costs of 1,240 and 1,590, respectively. The difference of 17% in overall productivity losses is not significant. Comparison of productivity losses reveals a strong correlation of r = 0.83 in those due to sick leave and of kappa = 0.84 in those due to work disability between questionnaire and payer data. The comparison of questionnaire and payer data shows that RA patients report their productivity losses adequately. Indirect cost assessment should therefore be included in further RA trials and observational studies.

Adalimumab versus infliximab for the treatment of moderate to severe ulcerative colitis in adult patients naïve to anti-TNF therapy: an indirect treatment comparison meta-analysis.

PubMed

Thorlund, Kristian; Druyts, Eric; Mills, Edward J; Fedorak, Richard N; Marshall, John K

2014-07-01

To compare the efficacy of adalimumab and infliximab for the treatment of moderate to severe ulcerative colitis using indirect treatment comparison meta-analysis. A systematic review and Bayesian indirect treatment comparison meta-analyses were performed for seven patient-important clinical outcomes at 8 weeks and 52 weeks. Odds ratio (OR) estimates and associated 95% credible intervals (CrIs) were produced. Five eligible RCTs informed clinical remission, response, mucosal healing, quality of life, colectomy, serious adverse events, and discontinuation due to adverse events at 8 weeks and 52 weeks. At 8 weeks of induction therapy, clinical remission (OR=0.42, 95% CrI 0.17-0.97), clinical response (OR=0.45, 95% CrI 0.23-0.89) and mucosal healing (OR=0.46, 95% CrI 0.25-0.86) statistically favored infliximab. However, after 52 weeks of maintenance therapy OR estimates showed no significant difference between infliximab and adalimumab. For serious adverse events and discontinuations due to adverse events, adalimumab and infliximab were similar to placebo. Further, the indirect treatment comparison of adalimumab and infliximab yielded odds ratios close to 1.00 with wide credible intervals. The findings of this indirect treatment comparison meta-analysis suggest that both infliximab and adalimumab are superior to placebo in the treatment of moderate to moderately severe ulcerative colitis. While infliximab is statistically more effective than adalimumab in the induction of remission, response and mucosal healing at 8 weeks, infliximab and adalimumab are comparable in efficacy at 52 weeks of maintenance treatment. Copyright © 2014 European Crohn's and Colitis Organisation. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Influences of Aerosols on Pre-Monsoon Circulation and Rainfall over Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, D.; Sud, Y. C.; Oreopoulos, L.; Kim, K.-M.; Lau, W. K.; Kang, I.-S.

2014-01-01

We conduct several sets of simulations with a version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5, (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) equipped with a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme to understand the role of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the pre-monsoon period of February-May. Our experiments are designed so that both direct and indirect aerosol effects can be evaluated. For climatologically prescribed monthly sea surface temperatures, we conduct sets of model integrations with and without biomass burning emissions in the area of peak burning activity, and with direct aerosol radiative effects either active or inactive. Taking appropriate differences between AGCM experiment sets, we find that BBA affects liquid clouds in statistically significantly ways, increasing cloud droplet number concentrations, decreasing droplet effective radii (i.e., a classic aerosol indirect effect), and locally suppressing precipitation due to a deceleration of the autoconversion process, with the latter effect apparently also leading to cloud condensate increases. Geographical re-arrangements of precipitation patterns, with precipitation increases downwind of aerosol sources are also seen, most likely because of advection of weakly precipitating cloud fields. Somewhat unexpectedly, the change in cloud radiative effect (cloud forcing) at surface is in the direction of lesser cooling because of decreases in cloud fraction. Overall, however, because of direct radiative effect contributions, aerosols exert a net negative forcing at both the top of the atmosphere and, perhaps most importantly, the surface, where decreased evaporation triggers feedbacks that further reduce precipitation. Invoking the approximation that direct and indirect aerosol effects are additive, we estimate that the overall precipitation reduction is about 40% due to the direct effects of absorbing aerosols, which stabilize the atmosphere and reduce surface latent heat fluxes via cooler land surface temperatures. Further refinements of our two-moment cloud microphysics scheme are needed for a more complete examination of the role of aerosol-convection interactions in the seasonal development of the SEA monsoon.

Bald eagles and sea otters in the Aleutian Archipelago: indirect effects of trophic cascades.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, R.G.; Estes, J.A.; Ricca, M.A.; Miles, A.K.; Forsman, E.D.

2008-01-01

Because sea otters (Enhydra lutris) exert a wide array of direct and indirect effects on coastal marine ecosystems throughout their geographic range, we investigated the potential influence of sea otters on the ecology of Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, USA. We studied the diets, productivity, and density of breeding Bald Eagles on four islands during 1993–1994 and 2000–2002, when sea otters were abundant and scarce, respectively. Bald Eagles depend on nearshore marine communities for most of their prey in this ecosystem, so we predicted that the recent decline in otter populations would have an indirect negative effect on diets and demography of Bald Eagles. Contrary to our predictions, we found no effects on density of breeding pairs on four islands from 1993–1994 to 2000–2002. In contrast, diets and diet diversity of Bald Eagles changed considerably between the two time periods, likely reflecting a change in prey availability resulting from the increase and subsequent decline in sea otter populations. The frequency of sea otter pups, rock greenling (Hexagammus lagocephalus), and smooth lumpsuckers (Aptocyclus ventricosus) in the eagle's diet declined with corresponding increases in Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus mutus), Glaucous-winged Gulls (Larus glaucescens), Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius), and various species of seabirds during the period of the recent otter population decline. Breeding success and productivity of Bald Eagles also increased during this time period, which may be due to the higher nutritional quality of avian prey consumed in later years. Our results provide further evidence of the wide-ranging indirect effects of sea otter predation on nearshore marine communities and another apex predator, the Bald Eagle. Although the indirect effects of sea otters are widely known, this example is unique because the food-web pathway transcended five species and several trophic levels in linking one apex predator to another.

Vegetation sensitivity to global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in a topographically complex region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diffenbaugh, N.S.; Sloan, L.C.; Snyder, M.A.; Bell, J.L.; Kaplan, J.; Shafer, S.L.; Bartlein, P.J.

2003-01-01

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations may affect vegetation distribution both directly through changes in photosynthesis and water-use efficiency, and indirectly through CO2-induced climate change. Using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4) driven by a regional climate model (RegCM2.5), we tested the sensitivity of vegetation in the western United States, a topographically complex region, to the direct, indirect, and combined effects of doubled preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Those sensitivities were quantified using the kappa statistic. Simulated vegetation in the western United States was sensitive to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, with woody biome types replacing less woody types throughout the domain. The simulated vegetation was also sensitive to climatic effects, particularly at high elevations, due to both warming throughout the domain and decreased precipitation in key mountain regions such as the Sierra Nevada of California and the Cascade and Blue Mountains of Oregon. Significantly, when the direct effects of CO2 on vegetation were tested in combination with the indirect effects of CO2-induced climate change, new vegetation patterns were created that were not seen in either of the individual cases. This result indicates that climatic and nonclimatic effects must be considered in tandem when assessing the potential impacts of elevated CO2 levels.

Satellite Remote Sensing of Aerosol Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remer, Lorraine; Kaufman, Yoram; Ramaprasad, Jaya; Procopio, Aline; Levin, Zev

1999-01-01

The role of aerosol forcing remains one of the largest uncertainties in estimating man's impact on the global climate system. One school of thought suggests that remote sensing by satellite sensors will provide the data necessary to narrow these uncertainties. While satellite measurements of direct aerosol forcing appear to be straightforward, satellite measurements of aerosol indirect forcing will be more complicated. Pioneering studies identified indirect aerosol forcing using AVHRR data in the biomass burning regions of Brazil. We have expanded this analysis with AVHRR to include an additional year of data and assimilated water vapor fields. The results show similar latitudinal dependence as reported by Kaufman and Fraser, but by using water vapor observations we conclude that latitude is not a proxy for water vapor and the strength of the indirect effect is not correlated to water vapor amounts. In addition to the AVHRR study we have identified indirect aerosol forcing in Brazil at much smaller spatial scales using the MODIS Airborne Simulator. The strength of the indirect effect appears to be related to cloud type and cloud dynamics. There is a suggestion that some of the cloud dynamics may be influenced by smoke destabilization of the atmospheric column. Finally, this study attempts to quantify remote sensing limitations due to the accuracy limits of the retrieval algorithms. We use a combination of numerical aerosol transport models, ground-based AERONET data and ISCCP cloud climatology to determine how much of the forcing occurs in regions too clean to determine from satellite retrievals.

Effect of Antioxidants Supplementation on Aging and Longevity

PubMed Central

Bartosz, Grzegorz

2014-01-01

If aging is due to or contributed by free radical reactions, as postulated by the free radical theory of aging, lifespan of organisms should be extended by administration of exogenous antioxidants. This paper reviews data on model organisms concerning the effects of exogenous antioxidants (antioxidant vitamins, lipoic acid, coenzyme Q, melatonin, resveratrol, curcumin, other polyphenols, and synthetic antioxidants including antioxidant nanoparticles) on the lifespan of model organisms. Mechanisms of effects of antioxidants, often due to indirect antioxidant action or to action not related to the antioxidant properties of the compounds administered, are discussed. The legitimacy of antioxidant supplementation in human is considered. PMID:24783202

Prepubertal Gynecomastia Due to Indirect Exposure to Nonformulary Bioidentical Hormonal Replacement Therapy: A Case Report.

PubMed

De Pinho, Joao Correia; Aghajanova, Lusine; Herndon, Christopher N

2016-01-01

Gynecomastia is a disorder of the endocrine system characterized by an abnormal presence of a palpable unilateral or bilateral enlargement and proliferation of glandular ductal benign breast tissue in male individuals. This case discusses the medical implications of an unregulated, indirect exposure to nonformulary, bioidentical hormone replacement therapy in male children. An 8-year-old boy presented with prepubertal gynecomastia secondary to estrogen exposure from maternal use of bioidentical hormonal replacement therapy (the Wiley protocol). We review the literature on prepubertal gynecomastia secondary to exogenous estrogen exposure, evaluation, clinical surveillance of the pubertal development, and relevant short- and long-term implications. Indirect exposure to nonformulary hormonal replacement in our case report was an etiologic factor in the development of prepubertal gynecomastia. This novel estrogen exposure source has important implications in the differential diagnosis of prepubertal gynecomastia and potential adverse effects secondary to precocious hormonal exposure.

Estimating the indirect costs associated with the expected number of cancer cases in Mexico by 2020.

PubMed

Gutiérrez-Delgado, Cristina; Armas-Texta, Daniel; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Meneses-García, Abelardo; Mohar-Betancourt, Alejandro

2016-04-01

To estimate the indirect costs generated by adults with cancer in Mexico from 2002-2020. Using information from national sources and the national cancer incidence from GLOBOCAN, we estimated income lost due to premature death (ILPD), short-term benefits (STBs), disability pensions (DPs), and opportunity costs for the carer (OCCs) generated by patients with cancer. Amounts were reported in Mexican pesos. We estimated 23 359 deaths and 216 679 new cases of cancer by 2020, which would be associated with a total indirect cost of 20.15 billion Mexican pesos. Men are expected to generate 54.9% of these costs. ILPD is expected to comprise the highest percentage of the cost (60%), followed by OCCs (22%), STBs (17%) and DPs (1%). From an economic perspective, the results emphasize the need to strengthen preventive interventions and early detection of cancer among adults to reduce its effect on the productivity of Mexico.

Development of a thermal gradient cloud condensation nucleus spectrometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leu, Ming-Taun; Friedl, R.

2004-01-01

Droplet clouds are one of the most important factors controlling the albedo and hence the temperature of out planet. Anthropogenic aerosols, such as black carbon (BC) organic carbon (OC) and sulfate, have a strong influence on cloud albedo. IPCC (2001) has estimated the global mean forcing from aerosols to be potentially as large as that of green house gases but opposite in sign. However, the uncertainties associated with the indirect aerosol forcing preclude a quantitative estimate. An additional impact on the indirect aerosol forcing, not quantified by IPCC, arises from recently identified chemical factors, for examples, interactions of atmospheric soluble gases, slightly soluble solutes, and organic substance with aerosols, which may influence the formation of cloud droplets. Recent studies suggest that inclusion of chemical effects on aerosol droplets. We plan to conduct several critical laboratory experiments that will reduce the uncertainty associated with indirect radiative forcing due to chemical modification of sulfate and BC aerosols by ambient gases.

Indirect Effects of Environmental Change in Resource Competition Models.

PubMed

Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Adler, Peter B

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic environmental change can affect species directly by altering physiological rates or indirectly by changing competitive outcomes. The unknown strength of competition-mediated indirect effects makes it difficult to predict species abundances in the face of ongoing environmental change. Theory developed with phenomenological competition models shows that indirect effects are weak when coexistence is strongly stabilized, but these models lack a mechanistic link between environmental change and species performance. To extend existing theory, we examined the relationship between coexistence and indirect effects in mechanistic resource competition models. We defined environmental change as a change in resource supply points and quantified the resulting competition-mediated indirect effects on species abundances. We found that the magnitude of indirect effects increases in proportion to niche overlap. However, indirect effects also depend on differences in how competitors respond to the change in resource supply, an insight hidden in nonmechanistic models. Our analysis demonstrates the value of using niche overlap to predict the strength of indirect effects and clarifies the types of indirect effects that global change can have on competing species.

Role-Play Simulations as a Transformative Methodology in Environmental Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Joseph C.; Martin, Akilah R.

2015-01-01

Knowledge-based environmental education has been consistently found to be limited in its effectiveness due to its small and indirect role in promoting sustainable behavior, while focusing on the impact of social context has been found to be more conceptually relevant. Transformative learning theory is positioned to be foundational to environmental…

Adolescent Substance Use, Sleep, and Academic Achievement: Evidence of Harm Due to Caffeine

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, Jack E.; Kristjansson, Alfgeir Logi; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora

2011-01-01

Using academic achievement as the key outcome variable, 7377 Icelandic adolescents were surveyed for cigarette smoking, alcohol use, daytime sleepiness, caffeine use, and potential confounders. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine direct and indirect effects of measured and latent variables in two models: the first with caffeine…

Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalmers, N.; Highwood, E. J.; Hawkins, E.; Sutton, R.; Wilcox, L. J.

2012-09-01

The importance of aerosol emissions for near term climate projections is investigated by analysing simulations with the HadGEM2-ES model under two different emissions scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. It is shown that the near term warming projected under RCP2.6 is greater than under RCP4.5, even though the greenhouse gas forcing is lower. Rapid and substantial reductions in sulphate aerosol emissions due to a reduction of coal burning in RCP2.6 lead to a reduction in the negative shortwave forcing due to aerosol direct and indirect effects. Indirect effects play an important role over the northern hemisphere oceans, especially the subtropical northeastern Pacific where an anomaly of 5-10 Wm-2 develops. The pattern of surface temperature change is consistent with the expected response to this surface radiation anomaly, whilst also exhibiting features that reflect redistribution of energy, and feedbacks, within the climate system. These results demonstrate the importance of aerosol emissions as a key source of uncertainty in near term projections of global and regional climate.

Experimental and analytical investigation of direct and indirect noise generated from non-isentropic boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Domenico, Francesca; Rolland, Erwan; Hochgreb, Simone

2017-11-01

Pressure fluctuations in combustors arise either directly from the heat release rate perturbations of the flame (direct noise), or indirectly from the acceleration of entropy, vorticity or compositional perturbations through nozzles or turbine guide vanes (indirect noise). In this work, the second mechanism is experimentally investigated in a simplified rig. Synthetic entropy spots are generated via Joule effect or helium injection and then accelerated via orifice plates of different area contraction and thickness. The objective of the study is to parametrically analyse the entropy-to-sound conversion in non isentropic contractions (e.g. with pressure losses), represented by the orifice plates. Acoustic measurements are performed to reconstruct the acoustic and entropic transfer functions of the orifices and compare experimental data with analytical predictions, to investigate the effect of orifice thickness and area ratio on the transfer functions. PIV measurements are performed to study the stretching and dispersion of the entropy waves due to mean flow effects. Secondly, PIV images taken in the jet exiting downstream of the orifices are used to investigate the coupling of the acoustic and entropy fields with the hydrodynamic field. EPRSC, Qualcomm.

Attribution of the United States "warming hole": aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor.

PubMed

Yu, Shaocai; Alapaty, Kiran; Mathur, Rohit; Pleim, Jonathan; Zhang, Yuanhang; Nolte, Chris; Eder, Brian; Foley, Kristen; Nagashima, Tatsuya

2014-11-06

Aerosols can influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and/or ice nuclei, thereby modifying cloud optical properties. In contrast to the widespread global warming, the central and south central United States display a noteworthy overall cooling trend during the 20(th) century, with an especially striking cooling trend in summertime daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (termed the U.S. "warming hole"). Here we used observations of temperature, shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF), longwave cloud forcing (LWCF), aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor as well as global coupled climate models to explore the attribution of the "warming hole". We find that the observed cooling trend in summer Tmax can be attributed mainly to SWCF due to aerosols with offset from the greenhouse effect of precipitable water vapor. A global coupled climate model reveals that the observed "warming hole" can be produced only when the aerosol fields are simulated with a reasonable degree of accuracy as this is necessary for accurate simulation of SWCF over the region. These results provide compelling evidence of the role of the aerosol indirect effect in cooling regional climate on the Earth. Our results reaffirm that LWCF can warm both winter Tmax and Tmin.

Post-Newtonian direct and mixed orbital effects due to the oblateness of the central body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iorio, L.

2015-06-01

The orbital dynamics of a test particle moving in the nonspherically symmetric field of a rotating oblate primary is impacted also by certain indirect, mixed effects arising from the interplay of the different Newtonian and post-Newtonian accelerations which induce known direct perturbations. We systematically calculate the indirect gravitoelectromagnetic shifts per orbit of the Keplerian orbital elements of the test particle arising from the crossing among the first even zonal harmonic J2 of the central body and the post-Newtonian static and stationary components of its gravitational field. We also work out the Newtonian shifts per orbit of order J22, and the direct post-Newtonian gravitoelectric effects of order J2c-2 arising from the equations of motion. In the case of both the indirect and direct gravitoelectric J2c-2 shifts, our calculation holds for an arbitrary orientation of the symmetry axis of the central body. We yield numerical estimates of their relative magnitudes for systems ranging from Earth's artificial satellites to stars orbiting supermassive black holes. As far as their measurability is concerned, highly elliptical orbital configuration are desirable.

Regulating plant/insect interactions using CO2 enrichment in model ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grodzinski, B.; Schmidt, J. M.; Watts, B.; Taylor, J.; Bates, S.; Dixon, M. A.; Staines, H.

1999-01-01

The greenhouse environment is a challenging artificial ecosystem in which it is possible to study selected plant/insect interaction in a controlled environment. Due to a combination of ``direct'' and ``indirect'' effects of CO2 enrichment on plant photosynthesis and plant development, canopy productivity is generally increased. In this paper, we discuss the effects of daytime and nighttime CO2 enrichment protocols on gas exchange of pepper plants (Capsicum annuum L, cv Cubico) grown in controlled environments. In addition, we present the effects of thrips, a common insect pest, on the photosynthetic and respiratory activity of these plant canopies. Carbon dioxide has diverse effects on the physiology and mortality of insects. However, our data indicate that thrips and whiteflies, at least, are not killed ``directly'' by CO2 levels used to enhance photosynthesis and plant growth. Together the data suggest that the insect population is affected ``indirectly'' by CO2 and that the primary effect of CO2 is via its effects on plant metabolism.

Interventions for preventing voice disorders in adults.

PubMed

Ruotsalainen, J H; Sellman, J; Lehto, L; Jauhiainen, M; Verbeek, J H

2007-10-17

Poor voice quality due to a voice disorder can lead to a reduced quality of life. In occupations where voice use is substantial it can lead to periods of absence from work. To evaluate the effectiveness of interventions to prevent voice disorders in adults. We searched MEDLINE (PubMed, 1950 to 2006), EMBASE (1974 to 2006), CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library, Issue 2 2006), CINAHL (1983 to 2006), PsychINFO (1967 to 2006), Science Citation Index (1986 to 2006) and the Occupational Health databases OSH-ROM (to 2006). The date of the last search was 05/04/06. Randomised controlled clinical trials (RCTs) of interventions evaluating the effectiveness of treatments to prevent voice disorders in adults. For work-directed interventions interrupted time series and prospective cohort studies were also eligible. Two authors independently extracted data and assessed trial quality. Meta-analysis was performed where appropriate. We identified two randomised controlled trials including a total of 53 participants in intervention groups and 43 controls. One study was conducted with teachers and the other with student teachers. Both trials were poor quality. Interventions were grouped into 1) direct voice training, 2) indirect voice training and 3) direct and indirect voice training combined.1) Direct voice training: One study did not find a significant decrease of the Voice Handicap Index for direct voice training compared to no intervention.2) Indirect voice training: One study did not find a significant decrease of the Voice Handicap Index for indirect voice training when compared to no intervention.3) Direct and indirect voice training combined: One study did not find a decrease of the Voice Handicap Index for direct and indirect voice training combined when compared to no intervention. The same study did however find an improvement in maximum phonation time (Mean Difference -3.18 sec; 95 % CI -4.43 to -1.93) for direct and indirect voice training combined when compared to no intervention. No work-directed studies were found. None of the studies found evaluated the effectiveness of prevention in terms of sick leave or number of diagnosed voice disorders. We found no evidence that either direct or indirect voice training or the two combined are effective in improving self-reported vocal functioning when compared to no intervention. The current practice of giving training to at-risk populations for preventing the development of voice disorders is therefore not supported by definitive evidence of effectiveness. Larger and methodologically better trials are needed with outcome measures that better reflect the aims of interventions.

Social cost of heavy drinking and alcohol dependence in high-income countries.

PubMed

Mohapatra, Satya; Patra, Jayadeep; Popova, Svetlana; Duhig, Amy; Rehm, Jürgen

2010-06-01

A comprehensive review of cost drivers associated with alcohol abuse, heavy drinking, and alcohol dependence for high-income countries was conducted. The data from 14 identified cost studies were tabulated according to the potential direct and indirect cost drivers. The costs associated with alcohol abuse, alcohol dependence, and heavy drinking were calculated. The weighted average of the total societal cost due to alcohol abuse as percent gross domestic product (GDP)--purchasing power parity (PPP)--was 1.58%. The cost due to heavy drinking and/or alcohol dependence as percent GDP (PPP) was estimated to be 0.96%. On average, the alcohol-attributable indirect cost due to loss of productivity is more than the alcohol-attributable direct cost. Most of the countries seem to incur 1% or more of their GDP (PPP) as alcohol-attributable costs, which is a high toll for a single factor and an enormous burden on public health. The majority of alcohol-attributable costs incurred as a consequence of heavy drinking and/or alcohol dependence. Effective prevention and treatment measures should be implemented to reduce these costs.

Changes in atmospheric sulfur burdens and concentrations and resulting radiative forcings under IPCC SRES emission scenarios for 1990-2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, M.; Boucher, O.; Hauglustaine, D.

2005-03-01

Simulations of the global sulfur cycle under the IPCC SRES scenarios have been performed. Sulfur dioxide and sulfate burdens, as well as the direct and first indirect radiative forcing (RF) by sulfate aerosols only, are presented for the period 1990 to 2100. By 2100, global sulfur emission rates decline everywhere in all scenarios. At that time, the anthropogenic sulfate burden ranges from 0.34 to 1.03 times the 1990 value of 0.47 Tg S. Direct and indirect global and annually mean RFs relative to the year 1990 are near 0 or positive (range of -0.07 to 0.28 Wm-2 and 0.01 to 0.38 Wm-2 for the direct and indirect effects, respectively). For reference these forcings amount respectively to -0.42 and -0.79 Wm-2 in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions (around 1750). Sulfur aerosols will therefore induce a smaller cooling effect in 2100 than in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions. For the period 1990 to 2100, the forcing efficiencies (computed relatively to 1990) are fairly constant for the direct effect (around -160 W (g sulfate)-1). The forcing efficiencies for the indirect effect are around -200 and -100 W (g sulfate)-1 for negative and positive burden differences, respectively. This is due to a shift in regional patterns of emissions and a saturation in the indirect effect. The simulated annually averaged SO2 concentrations for A1B scenario in 2020 are close to air quality objectives for public health in some parts of Africa and exceed these objectives in some parts of China and Korea. Moreover, sulfate deposition rates are estimated to increase by 200% from the present level in East and Southeast Asia. This shows that Asia may experience in the future sulfur-related environmental and human health problems as important as Europe and the United States did in the 1970s.

The Vorticity Budgets of North Atlantic Winter Marine Extratropical Cyclones Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azad, R.; Sorteberg, A.

2012-12-01

A partitioned form of the Zwack-Okossi (Z-O) tendency equation is employed to examine the composite role of dynamic and thermodynamic forcing mechanisms to the development of North Atlantic winter marine extratropical cyclones. The results provide a further insight into the budgets of near surface cyclonic geostrophic vorticity (CGV) and their evolution during the life cycle of mid-latitude low pressure systems. Of interest are the direct, indirect and net effects of the Z-O forcing mechanisms. The direct effect shows the contribution of each process to the near surface geostrophic vorticity tendency, while the indirect effect implies the contribution from the associated vertical motion and resulting adiabatic cooling or warming. The net effect is the sum of the direct and indirect effects.We found that the vorticity advection term is the largest net contributor to the development of the marine cyclones. The net positive effect of both the temperature advection and latent heating terms is smaller owing to the induced adiabatic cooling which reduces the positive direct contributions. The direct and indirect parts of ageostrophic tendency and friction terms support each other, resulting in significant net contributions at the low center.Comparisons of the composite contributions by the Z-O forcing terms at different pressure levels over the low center indicate that, in agreement with previous studies, the commencement of significant development is accompanied with the upper level cyclonic absolute vorticity advection, upper level warm advection and mid-to low level latent heating. However, during the end of the development, mid-tropospheric net contribution by vorticity advection term and low level warm advection controls the production of CGV. The former is due to both the presence of mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection and induced adiabatic warming over the composite low center.

Electronic band structure of ReS2 by high-resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, James L.; Hart, Lewis S.; Wolverson, Daniel; Chen, Chaoyu; Avila, Jose; Asensio, Maria C.

2017-09-01

The rhenium-based transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) are atypical of the TMD family due to their highly anisotropic crystalline structure and are recognized as promising materials for two-dimensional heterostructure devices. The nature of the band gap (direct or indirect) for bulk, few-, and single-layer forms of ReS2 is of particular interest, due to its comparatively weak interplanar interaction. However, the degree of interlayer interaction and the question of whether a transition from indirect to direct gap is observed on reducing thickness (as in other TMDs) are controversial. We present a direct determination of the valence band structure of bulk ReS2 using high-resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy. We find a clear in-plane anisotropy due to the presence of chains of Re atoms, with a strongly directional effective mass which is larger in the direction orthogonal to the Re chains (2.2 me ) than along them (1.6 me ). An appreciable interplane interaction results in an experimentally measured difference of ≈100 -200 meV between the valence band maxima at the Z point (0,0,1/2 ) and the Γ point (0,0,0) of the three-dimensional Brillouin zone. This leads to a direct gap at Z and a close-lying but larger gap at Γ , implying that bulk ReS2 is marginally indirect. This may account for recent conflicting transport and photoluminescence measurements and the resulting uncertainty about the nature of the band gap in this material.

Lifetime indirect cost of childhood overweight and obesity: A decision analytic model.

PubMed

Sonntag, Diana; Ali, Shehzad; De Bock, Freia

2016-01-01

To estimate the indirect lifetime cost of childhood overweight and obesity for Germany. The lifetime cohort model consisted of two parts: (a) Model I used data from the German Interview and Examination Survey for Children on prevalence of BMI categories during childhood to evaluate BMI trajectories before the age of 18; and (b) Model II estimated lifetime excess indirect cost based on the history of childhood BMI. Indirect costs were defined as the opportunity cost of lost productivity due to mortality and morbidity and were identified through a systematic literature review. Our analysis showed that the majority of children with overweight and obesity remained in the same BMI category during their adult life, resulting in significant indirect lifetime costs. We estimated that overweight and obesity during childhood resulted in an excess lifetime cost per person of €4,209 (men) and €2,445 (women). For the current prevalent German population, the excess lifetime cost was €145 billion. Our study showed that childhood obesity results in significant economic burden on the society. Therefore, cost-effective strategies targeted at reducing the prevalence of obesity during the early years of life can significantly reduce both healthcare and nonhealthcare costs over the lifetime. © 2015 The Obesity Society.

Gimme shelter--the relative sensitivity of parasitic nematodes with direct and indirect life cycles to climate change.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Dobson, Andrew P; Kutz, Susan J

2013-11-01

Climate change is expected to alter the dynamics of host-parasite systems globally. One key element in developing predictive models for these impacts is the life cycle of the parasite. It is, for example, commonly assumed that parasites with an indirect life cycle would be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than parasites with a direct life cycle due to the greater chance that at least one of their obligate host species will go extinct. Here, we challenge this notion by contrasting parasitic nematodes with a direct life cycle against those with an indirect life cycle. Specifically, we suggest that behavioral thermoregulation by the intermediate host may buffer the larvae of indirectly transmitted parasites against temperature extremes, and hence climate warming. We term this the 'shelter effect'. Formalizing each life cycle in a comprehensive model reveals a fitness advantage for the direct life cycle over the indirect life cycle at low temperatures, but the shelter effect reverses this advantage at high temperatures. When examined for seasonal environments, the models suggest that climate warming may in some regions create a temporal niche in mid-summer that excludes parasites with a direct life cycle, but allows parasites with an indirect life cycle to persist. These patterns are amplified if parasite larvae are able to manipulate their intermediate host to increase ingestion probability by definite hosts. Furthermore, our results suggest that exploiting the benefits of host sheltering may have aided the evolution of indirect life cycles. Our modeling framework utilizes the Metabolic Theory of Ecology to synthesize the complexities of host behavioral thermoregulation and its impacts on various temperature-dependent parasite life history components in a single measure of fitness, R0 . It allows quantitative predictions of climate change impacts, and is easily generalized to many host-parasite systems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect of Channeling on in-home utilization and subsequent nursing home care: a simultaneous equation perspective.

PubMed Central

Rabiner, D J; Stearns, S C; Mutran, E

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE. This study explored the relationship between participation in a home/community-based long-term care case management intervention (known as the Channeling demonstration), use of formal in-home care, and subsequent nursing home utilization. STUDY DESIGN. Structural analysis of the randomized Channeling intervention was conducted to decompose the total effects of Channeling on nursing home use into direct and indirect effects. DATA COLLECTION METHOD. Secondary data analysis of the National Long-Term Care Data Set. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. The use of formal in-home care, which was increased by the Channeling intervention, was positively associated with nursing home utilization at 12 months. However, the negative direct effect of Channeling on nursing home use was of sufficient magnitude to offset this positive indirect effect, so that a small but significant negative total effect of Channeling on subsequent nursing home utilization was found. CONCLUSIONS. This study shows why Channeling did not have a large total impact on nursing home utilization. The analysis did not provide evidence of direct substitution of in-home care for nursing home care because the direct reductions in nursing home utilization due to other aspects of Channeling (including, but not limited to case management) were substantially offset by the indirect increases in nursing home utilization associated with additional home care use. PMID:8002352

Selection for sex in finite populations.

PubMed

Roze, D

2014-07-01

Finite population size generates interference between selected loci, which has been shown to favour increased rates of recombination. In this article, I present different analytical models exploring selection acting on a 'sex modifier locus' (that affects the relative investment into asexual and sexual reproduction) in a finite population. Two forms of selective forces act on the modifier: direct selection due to intrinsic costs associated with sexual reproduction and indirect selection generated by one or two other loci affecting fitness. The results show that indirect selective forces differ from those acting on a recombination modifier even in the case of a haploid population: in particular, a single selected locus generates indirect selection for sex, while two loci are required in the case of a recombination modifier. This effect stems from the fact that modifier alleles increasing sex escape more easily from low-fitness genetic backgrounds than alleles coding for lower rates of sex. Extrapolating the results from three-locus models to a large number of loci at mutation-selection balance indicates that in the parameter range where indirect selection is strong enough to outweigh a substantial cost of sex, interactions between selected loci have a stronger effect than the sum of individual effects of each selected locus. Comparisons with multilocus simulation results show that such extrapolations may provide correct predictions for the evolutionarily stable rate of sex, unless the cost of sex is high. © 2014 The Author. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Individual differences in the Simon effect are underpinned by differences in the competitive dynamics in the basal ganglia: An experimental verification and a computational model.

PubMed

Stocco, Andrea; Murray, Nicole L; Yamasaki, Brianna L; Renno, Taylor J; Nguyen, Jimmy; Prat, Chantel S

2017-07-01

Cognitive control is thought to be made possible by the activity of the prefrontal cortex, which selectively uses task-specific representations to bias the selection of task-appropriate responses over more automated, but inappropriate, ones. Recent models have suggested, however, that prefrontal representations are in turn controlled by the basal ganglia. In particular, neurophysiological considerations suggest that the basal ganglia's indirect pathway plays a pivotal role in preventing irrelevant information from being incorporated into a task, thus reducing response interference due to the processing of inappropriate stimuli dimensions. Here, we test this hypothesis by showing that individual differences in a non-verbal cognitive control task (the Simon task) are correlated with performance on a decision-making task (the Probabilistic Stimulus Selection task) that tracks the contribution of the indirect pathway. Specifically, the higher the effect of the indirect pathway, the smaller was the behavioral costs associated with suppressing interference in incongruent trials. Additionally, it was found that this correlation was driven by individual differences in incongruent trials only (with little effect on congruent ones) and specific to the indirect pathway (with almost no correlation with the effect of the direct pathways). Finally, it is shown that this pattern of results is precisely what is predicted when competitive dynamics of the basal ganglia are added to the selective attention component of a simple model of the Simon task, thus showing that our experimental results can be fully explained by our initial hypothesis. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Ocean Acidification Affects the Phyto-Zoo Plankton Trophic Transfer Efficiency

PubMed Central

Cripps, Gemma; Flynn, Kevin J.; Lindeque, Penelope K.

2016-01-01

The critical role played by copepods in ocean ecology and biogeochemistry warrants an understanding of how these animals may respond to ocean acidification (OA). Whilst an appreciation of the potential direct effects of OA, due to elevated pCO2, on copepods is improving, little is known about the indirect impacts acting via bottom-up (food quality) effects. We assessed, for the first time, the chronic effects of direct and/or indirect exposures to elevated pCO2 on the behaviour, vital rates, chemical and biochemical stoichiometry of the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa. Bottom-up effects of elevated pCO2 caused species-specific biochemical changes to the phytoplanktonic feed, which adversely affected copepod population structure and decreased recruitment by 30%. The direct impact of elevated pCO2 caused gender-specific respiratory responses in A.tonsa adults, stimulating an enhanced respiration rate in males (> 2-fold), and a suppressed respiratory response in females when coupled with indirect elevated pCO2 exposures. Under the combined indirect+direct exposure, carbon trophic transfer efficiency from phytoplankton-to-zooplankton declined to < 50% of control populations, with a commensurate decrease in recruitment. For the first time an explicit role was demonstrated for biochemical stoichiometry in shaping copepod trophic dynamics. The altered biochemical composition of the CO2-exposed prey affected the biochemical stoichiometry of the copepods, which could have ramifications for production of higher tropic levels, notably fisheries. Our work indicates that the control of phytoplankton and the support of higher trophic levels involving copepods have clear potential to be adversely affected under future OA scenarios. PMID:27082737

Implementation of an Aerosol-Cloud Microphysics-Radiation Coupling into the NASA Unified WRF: Simulation Results for the 6-7 August 2006 AMMA Special Observing Period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shi, J. J.; Matsui, T.; Tao, W.-K.; Tan, Q.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Chin, M.; Pickering, K.; Guy, N.; Lang, S.; Kemp, E. M.

2014-01-01

Aerosols affect the Earth's radiation balance directly and cloud microphysical processes indirectly via the activation of cloud condensation and ice nuclei. These two effects have often been considered separately and independently, hence the need to assess their combined impact given the differing nature of their effects on convective clouds. To study both effects, an aerosol-microphysics-radiation coupling, including Goddard microphysics and radiation schemes, was implemented into the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model (NU-WRF). Fully coupled NU-WRF simulations were conducted for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that passed through the Niamey, Niger area on 6-7 August 2006 during an African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) special observing period. The results suggest that rainfall is reduced when aerosol indirect effects are included, regardless of the aerosol direct effect. Daily mean radiation heating profiles in the area traversed by the MCS showed the aerosol (mainly mineral dust) direct effect had the largest impact near cloud tops just above 200 hectopascals where short-wave heating increased by about 0.8 Kelvin per day; the weakest long-wave cooling was at around 250 hectopascals. It was also found that more condensation and ice nuclei as a result of higher aerosol/dust concentrations led to increased amounts of all cloud hydrometeors because of the microphysical indirect effect, and the radiation direct effect acts to reduce precipitating cloud particles (rain, snow and graupel) in the middle and lower cloud layers while increasing the non-precipitating particles (ice) in the cirrus anvil. However, when the aerosol direct effect was activated, regardless of the indirect effect, the onset of MCS precipitation was delayed about 2 hours, in conjunction with the delay in the activation of cloud condensation and ice nuclei. Overall, for this particular environment, model set-up and physics configuration, the effect of aerosol radiative heating due to mineral dust overwhelmed the effect of the aerosols on microphysics.

Concurrent Activation of Striatal Direct and Indirect Pathways During Action Initiation

PubMed Central

Cui, Guohong; Jun, Sang Beom; Jin, Xin; Pham, Michael D.

2014-01-01

Summary The basal ganglia are subcortical nuclei that control voluntary actions, and are affected by a number of debilitating neurological disorders1–4. The prevailing model of basal ganglia function proposes that two orthogonal projection circuits originating from distinct populations of spiny projection neurons (SPNs) in the striatum5,6 - the so-called direct and indirect pathways - have opposing effects on movement: while activity of direct-pathway SPNs purportedly facilitates movement, activity of indirect-pathway SPNs inhibits movement1,2. This model has been difficult to test due to the lack of methods to selectively measure the activity of direct- and indirect-pathway SPNs in freely moving animals. We developed a novel in-vivo method that allowed us to specifically measure direct- and indirect-pathway SPN activity using Cre-dependent viral expression of the genetically encoded calcium indicator (GECI) GCAMP3 in the dorsal striatum of D1-Cre (direct-pathway specific6,7) and A2A-Cre (indirect-pathway specific8,9) mice10. Using fiber optics and time-correlated single photon counting (TCSPC) in mice performing an operant task, we observed transient increases in neural activity in both direct- and indirect-pathway SPNs when animals initiated actions, but not when they were inactive. Concurrent activation of SPNs from both pathways in one hemisphere preceded the initiation of contraversive movements, and predicted the occurrence of specific movements within 500 ms. These observations challenge the classical view of basal ganglia function, and may have implications for understanding the origin of motor symptoms in basal ganglia disorders. PMID:23354054

Adaptive control paradigm for photovoltaic and solid oxide fuel cell in a grid-integrated hybrid renewable energy system.

PubMed

Mumtaz, Sidra; Khan, Laiq

2017-01-01

The hybrid power system (HPS) is an emerging power generation scheme due to the plentiful availability of renewable energy sources. Renewable energy sources are characterized as highly intermittent in nature due to meteorological conditions, while the domestic load also behaves in a quite uncertain manner. In this scenario, to maintain the balance between generation and load, the development of an intelligent and adaptive control algorithm has preoccupied power engineers and researchers. This paper proposes a Hermite wavelet embedded NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT (maximum power point tracking) control of photovoltaic (PV) systems to extract maximum power and a Hermite wavelet incorporated NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive control of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) to obtain a swift response in a grid-connected hybrid power system. A comprehensive simulation testbed for a grid-connected hybrid power system (wind turbine, PV cells, SOFC, electrolyzer, battery storage system, supercapacitor (SC), micro-turbine (MT) and domestic load) is developed in Matlab/Simulink. The robustness and superiority of the proposed indirect adaptive control paradigm are evaluated through simulation results in a grid-connected hybrid power system testbed by comparison with a conventional PI (proportional and integral) control system. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed control paradigm.

Adaptive control paradigm for photovoltaic and solid oxide fuel cell in a grid-integrated hybrid renewable energy system

PubMed Central

Khan, Laiq

2017-01-01

The hybrid power system (HPS) is an emerging power generation scheme due to the plentiful availability of renewable energy sources. Renewable energy sources are characterized as highly intermittent in nature due to meteorological conditions, while the domestic load also behaves in a quite uncertain manner. In this scenario, to maintain the balance between generation and load, the development of an intelligent and adaptive control algorithm has preoccupied power engineers and researchers. This paper proposes a Hermite wavelet embedded NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive MPPT (maximum power point tracking) control of photovoltaic (PV) systems to extract maximum power and a Hermite wavelet incorporated NeuroFuzzy indirect adaptive control of Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) to obtain a swift response in a grid-connected hybrid power system. A comprehensive simulation testbed for a grid-connected hybrid power system (wind turbine, PV cells, SOFC, electrolyzer, battery storage system, supercapacitor (SC), micro-turbine (MT) and domestic load) is developed in Matlab/Simulink. The robustness and superiority of the proposed indirect adaptive control paradigm are evaluated through simulation results in a grid-connected hybrid power system testbed by comparison with a conventional PI (proportional and integral) control system. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed control paradigm. PMID:28329015

Self-Compassion and Suicidal Behavior in College Students: Serial Indirect Effects via Depression and Wellness Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelliher Rabon, Jessica; Sirois, Fuschia M.; Hirsch, Jameson K.

2018-01-01

Objective: College students may be at heightened risk for suicide and suicidal behavior due to maladaptive cognitive-emotional factors and failure to practice basic health behaviors. However, self-compassion and wellness behaviors may protect against risk. The relation between self-compassion and suicidal behavior and the contributing roles of…

Three-Level Models for Indirect Effects in School- and Class-Randomized Experiments in Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pituch, Keenan A.; Murphy, Daniel L.; Tate, Richard L.

2009-01-01

Due to the clustered nature of field data, multi-level modeling has become commonly used to analyze data arising from educational field experiments. While recent methodological literature has focused on multi-level mediation analysis, relatively little attention has been devoted to mediation analysis when three levels (e.g., student, class,…

The direct and indirect effects of lurasidone monotherapy on functional improvement among patients with bipolar depression: results from a randomized placebo-controlled trial.

PubMed

Rajagopalan, Krithika; Bacci, Elizabeth Dansie; Wyrwich, Kathleen W; Pikalov, Andrei; Loebel, Antony

2016-12-01

Bipolar depression is characterized by depressive symptoms and impairment in many areas of functioning, including work, family, and social life. The objective of this study was to assess the independent, direct effect of lurasidone treatment on functioning improvement, and examine the indirect effect of lurasidone treatment on functioning improvement, mediated through improvements in depression symptoms. Data from a 6-week placebo-controlled trial assessing the effect of lurasidone monotherapy versus placebo in patients with bipolar depression was used. Patient functioning was measured using the Sheehan disability scale (SDS). Descriptive statistics were used to assess the effect of lurasidone on improvement on the SDS total and domain scores (work/school, social, and family life), as well as number of days lost and unproductive due to symptoms. Path analyses evaluated the total effect (β1), as well as the indirect effect (β2×β3) and direct effect (β4) of lurasidone treatment on SDS total score change, using standardized beta path coefficients and baseline scores as covariates. The direct effect of treatment on SDS total score change and indirect effects accounting for mediation through depression improvement were examined for statistical significance and magnitude using MPlus. In this 6-week trial (N = 485), change scores from baseline to 6-weeks were significantly larger for both lurasidone treatment dosage groups versus placebo on the SDS total and all three SDS domain scores (p < 0.05). Through path analyses, lurasidone treatment predicted improvement in depression (β2 = -0.33, p = 0.009), subsequently predicting improvement in functional impairment (β3 = 0.70, p < 0.001; indirect effect = -0.23). The direct effect was of medium magnitude (β4 = -0.17, p = 0.04), indicating lurasidone had a significant and direct effect on improvement in functional impairment, after accounting for depression improvement. Results demonstrated statistically significant improvement in functioning among patients on lurasidone monotherapy compared to placebo. Improvement in functioning among patients on lurasidone was largely mediated through a reduction in depression symptoms, but lurasidone also had a medium and statistically significant independent direct effect in improving functioning.

Radiative efficiencies for fluorinated esters: indirect global warming potentials of hydrofluoroethers.

PubMed

Bravo, Iván; Díaz-de-Mera, Yolanda; Aranda, Alfonso; Moreno, Elena; Nutt, David R; Marston, George

2011-10-14

Density Functional Theory (DFT) has been used with an empirically-derived correction for the wavenumbers of vibrational band positions to predict the infrared spectra of several fluorinated esters (FESs). Radiative efficiencies (REs) were then determined using the method of Pinnock et al. and these were used with atmospheric lifetimes from the literature to determine the direct global warming potentials of FESs. FESs, in particular fluoroalkylacetates, alkylfluoroacetates and fluoroalkylformates, are potential greenhouse gases and their likely long atmospheric lifetimes and relatively large REs, compared to their parent HFEs, make them active contributors to global warming. Here, we use the concept of indirect global warming potential (indirect GWP) to assess the contribution to the warming of several commonly used HFEs emitted from the Earth's surface, explicitly taking into account that these HFEs will be converted into the corresponding FESs in the troposphere. The indirect GWP can be calculated using the radiative efficiencies and lifetimes of the HFE and its degradation FES products. We found that the GWPs of those studied HFEs which have the smallest direct GWP can be increased by 100-1600% when taking account of the cumulative effect due to the secondary FESs formed during HFE atmospheric oxidation. This effect may be particularly important for non-segregated HFEs and some segregated HFEs, which may contribute significantly more to global warming than can be concluded from examination of their direct GWPs.

Indirect fluorometric detection techniques on thin layer chromatography and effect of ultrasound on gel electrophoresis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yinfa, Ma.

Thin-layer chromatography (TLC) is a broadly applicable separation technique. It offers many advantages over high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), such as easily adapted for two-dimensional separation, for whole-column'' detection and for handling multiple samples, etc. However, due to its draggy development of detection techniques comparing with HPLC, TLC has not received the attention it deserves. Therefore, exploring new detection techniques is very important to the development of TLC. It is the principal of this dissertation to present a new detection method for TLC -- indirect fluorometric detection method. This detection technique is universal sensitive, nondestructive, and simple. This will bemore » described in detail from Sections 1 through Section 5. Section 1 and 3 describe the indirect fluorometric detection of anions and nonelectrolytes in TLC. In Section 2, a detection method for cations based on fluorescence quenching of ethidium bromide is presented. In Section 4, a simple and interesting TLC experiment is designed, three different fluorescence detection principles are used for the determination of caffeine, saccharin and sodium benzoate in beverages. A laser-based indirect fluorometric detection technique in TLC is developed in Section 5. Section 6 is totally different from Sections 1 through 5. An ultrasonic effect on the separation of DNA fragments in agarose gel electrophoresis is investigated. 262 refs.« less

Direct and indirect costs of asthma in Canada, 1990.

PubMed Central

Krahn, M D; Berka, C; Langlois, P; Detsky, A S

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To calculate the direct and indirect costs of asthma in Canada. DESIGN: Cost-of-illness study. SETTING: Canada. PATIENTS: All Canadians receiving inpatient or outpatient care for asthma in 1990. OUTCOME MEASURES: Direct costs incurred by inpatient care, emergency services, physician and nursing services, ambulance use, drugs and devices, outpatient diagnostic tests, research and education. Indirect costs from productivity loss due to absence from work, inability to to perform housekeeping activities, need to care for children with asthma who were absent from school, time spent travelling and waiting for medical care, and premature death from asthma. All costs are in 1990 Canadian dollars. RESULTS: Depending on assumptions, the total cost of asthma was estimated to be between $504 million and $648 million. Direct costs were $306 million. The single largest component of direct costs was the cost of drugs ($124 million). The largest component of indirect costs was illness-related disability ($76 million). CONCLUSIONS: Annual costs of treating asthma are comparable to the individual cost of infectious diseases, hematological diseases, congenital defects, perinatal illnesses, home care and ambulance services. Asthma costs may increase in the future, given current morbidity and mortality trends. Further evaluation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of available asthma interventions in addition to aggregate cost data are required to determine whether resource allocation for the treatment of asthma can be improved. PMID:8634960

Pet avoidance in allergy cases: Is it possible to implement it?

PubMed

Sánchez, Jorge; Díez, Susana; Cardona, Ricardo

2015-01-01

Among allergic patients, pet avoidance is commonly recommended. It is difficult for patients to accomplish this because of their emotional attachment to the pets, and its effectiveness is controversial. To explore the applicability and effectiveness of pet avoidance measures among sensitized patients. We evaluated 288 patients with asthma, rhinitis, conjunctivitis and/or dermatitis using skin prick test to measure their sensitization to cats, dogs and other animals to which they were exposed. Exposure to animals was evaluated in each patient (pets at home, frequent indirect exposure or no exposure). In those patients sensitized to animals some avoidance measures, such as removing pets from home and preventing indirect exposure, were recommended. On the following two appointments, we evaluated patients' fulfillment of these recommendations. Sensitization to cats, dogs and birds was high (9%, 48%, 14%, respectively), as well as direct and indirect exposure (30%, 46%, 24%, respectively). Most patients denied contact with other animals (horses, hamsters, rabbits or cows), and sensitization to them was low. During the follow-up of patients sensitized to their pets at home (n=50), most of them refused to remove them from their house due to emotional attachment, and only two followed this recommendation. High exposure to animals could explain the frequency of sensitization to pets in this population. However, emotional attachment and prevalent indirect exposure to animals among sensitized patients make avoidance recommendations impractical or impossible to achieve.

The Minicommunity Design to Assess Indirect Effects of Vaccination.

PubMed

Halloran, M Elizabeth

2012-08-01

We propose the minicommunity design to estimate indirect effects of vaccination. Establishing indirect effects of vaccination in unvaccinated subpopulations could have important implications for global vaccine policies. In the minicommunity design, the household or other small transmission unit serves as the cluster in which to estimate indirect effects of vaccination, similar to studies in larger communities to estimate indirect, total, and overall effects. Examples from the literature include studies in small transmission units to estimate indirect effects of pertussis, pneumococcal, influenza, and cholera vaccines. We characterize the minicommunity design by several methodologic considerations, including the assignment mechanism, ascertainment, the role of transmission outside the transmission unit, and the relation of the size of the transmission unit to number of people vaccinated. The minicommunity study for indirect effects is contrasted with studies to estimate vaccine effects on infectiousness and protective effects under conditions of household exposure within small transmission units. The minicommunity design can be easily implemented in individually randomized studies by enrolling and following-up members of households of the randomized individuals. The methodology for the minicommunity design for estimating indirect effects of vaccination deserves much future research.

The ironic effect of guessing: increased false memory for mediated lists in younger and older adults

PubMed Central

Coane, Jennifer H.; Huff, Mark J.; Hutchison, Keith A.

2016-01-01

Younger and older adults studied lists of words directly (e.g., creek, water) or indirectly (e.g., beaver, faucet) related to a nonpresented critical lure (CL; e.g., river). Indirect (i.e., mediated) lists presented items that were only related to CLs through nonpresented mediators (i.e., directly related items). Following study, participants completed a condition-specific task, math, a recall test with or without a warning about the CL, or tried to guess the CL. On a final recognition test, warnings (vs. math and recall without warning) decreased false recognition for direct lists, and guessing increased mediated false recognition (an ironic effect of guessing) in both age groups. The observed age-invariance of the ironic effect of guessing suggests that processes involved in mediated false memory are preserved in aging and confirms the effect is largely due to activation in semantic networks during encoding and to the strengthening of these networks during the interpolated tasks. PMID:26393390

The ironic effect of guessing: increased false memory for mediated lists in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Coane, Jennifer H; Huff, Mark J; Hutchison, Keith A

2016-01-01

Younger and older adults studied lists of words directly (e.g., creek, water) or indirectly (e.g., beaver, faucet) related to a nonpresented critical lure (CL; e.g., river). Indirect (i.e., mediated) lists presented items that were only related to CLs through nonpresented mediators (i.e., directly related items). Following study, participants completed a condition-specific task, math, a recall test with or without a warning about the CL, or tried to guess the CL. On a final recognition test, warnings (vs. math and recall without warning) decreased false recognition for direct lists, and guessing increased mediated false recognition (an ironic effect of guessing) in both age groups. The observed age-invariance of the ironic effect of guessing suggests that processes involved in mediated false memory are preserved in aging and confirms the effect is largely due to activation in semantic networks during encoding and to the strengthening of these networks during the interpolated tasks.

Consequences of violence across the lifespan: Mental health and sleep quality in pregnant women.

PubMed

Miller-Graff, Laura E; Cheng, Philip

2017-09-01

Research has demonstrated that exposure to violence and adversity has negative effects on both mental health and biobehavioral outcomes, such as sleep health. Research examining the relationship between past and recent violence exposure and mental health suggests that the effects of childhood adversity are especially pernicious, but to date, no studies have attempted to disentangle the direct, indirect and relative effects of past year versus childhood exposure to violence and adversity on sleep. The objective of the current study was to examine the direct effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and past year intimate partner violence (IPV) on different aspects of sleep health in pregnant women. A sample of high-risk pregnant women (n = 101) were interviewed. Mediation analysis with bias-corrected, bootstrapped confidence intervals was used to evaluate direct and indirect effects. Findings indicated that while ACEs had significant direct effects on mental health, past year IPV had stronger effects on sleep quality, latency, and efficiency. ACEs did, however, indirectly affect subjective sleep quality via past year psychological IPV. These findings suggest that sleep disturbance may be a regulatory stress response that is most clearly linked to past year violence and trauma. That is, though long-term sleep disturbance may be evident following childhood adversity, it is likely that this relationship is better explained by the role of childhood adversity in predicting adulthood revictimization or due to long-term mental health difficulties associated with early trauma. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Indirect effects of an invasive exotic species on a long-distance migratory songbird

Treesearch

Kirk W. Stodola; Eric T. Linder; Robert J. Cooper

2013-01-01

The loss of foundational tree species to non-native pests can have far reaching consequences for forest composition and function, yet little is known about the impacts on other ecosystem components such as wildlife. We had the opportunity to observe how the loss of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), due to the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae...

The indirect effect of panic disorder on smoking cognitions via difficulties in emotion regulation.

PubMed

Yang, Min-Jeong; Zvolensky, Michael J; Leyro, Teresa M

2017-09-01

Panic disorder (PD) and cigarette smoking are highly comorbid and associated with worse panic and smoking outcomes. Smoking may become an overlearned automatized response to relieve panic-like withdrawal distress, leading to corresponding smoking cognitions, which contribute to its reinforcing properties and difficultly abstaining. Difficulties in emotion regulation (ER) may underlie this relation such that in the absence of adaptive emotion regulatory strategies, smokers with PD may more readily rely upon smoking to manage affective distress. In the current study, the indirect relation between PD status and smoking cognitions through ER difficulties was examined among daily smokers (N=74). We found evidence for an indirect relation between PD status and negative affect, addictive and habitual smoking motives, and anticipating smoking will result in negative reinforcement and personal harm, through self-reported difficulties with ER. Our findings are aligned with theoretical models on anxiety and smoking, and suggest that reports of greater smoking cognitions may be due to ER difficulties. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

An indirect latent informational conformity social influence choice model: Formulation and case study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maness, Michael; Cirillo, Cinzia

The current state-of-the-art in social influence models of travel behavior is conformity models with direct benefit social influence effects. Indirect effects have seen limited development, but this paper presents a latent class discrete choice model of an indirect informational conformity hypothesis. Moreover, class membership depends on the proportion of group members who adopt a behavior. Membership into the more informed class causes changes in the preferences of those individuals thus making adoption more attractive. Equilibrium properties are derived for this model showing the possibility of multiple equilibria but under different conditions than the direct-benefit formulations. Social influence elasticity is derivedmore » for both models types. The informational conformity model can represent non-linear elasticity behavior unlike the direct-benefit formulation. Additionally, a two-stage control function is developed to obtain consistent parameter estimates in the presence of an endogenous class membership model covariate that is correlated with choice model unobservables. A case study to study social influence in bicycle ownership in the United States is presented. Our results showed that more informed households had a greater chance of owning a bike due to preference changes with less sensitivity to smaller home footprints and limited incomes. The behavioral hypothesis of positive preference change due to information transfer was confirmed. Observed ownership share closely matched predicted local-level equilibrium in some metropolitan areas but was unable to achieve expected prediction rate within confidence intervals. Finally, the elasticity of social influence was found to range locally from about 0.5% to 1.0%.« less

An indirect latent informational conformity social influence choice model: Formulation and case study

DOE PAGES

Maness, Michael; Cirillo, Cinzia

2016-11-01

The current state-of-the-art in social influence models of travel behavior is conformity models with direct benefit social influence effects. Indirect effects have seen limited development, but this paper presents a latent class discrete choice model of an indirect informational conformity hypothesis. Moreover, class membership depends on the proportion of group members who adopt a behavior. Membership into the more informed class causes changes in the preferences of those individuals thus making adoption more attractive. Equilibrium properties are derived for this model showing the possibility of multiple equilibria but under different conditions than the direct-benefit formulations. Social influence elasticity is derivedmore » for both models types. The informational conformity model can represent non-linear elasticity behavior unlike the direct-benefit formulation. Additionally, a two-stage control function is developed to obtain consistent parameter estimates in the presence of an endogenous class membership model covariate that is correlated with choice model unobservables. A case study to study social influence in bicycle ownership in the United States is presented. Our results showed that more informed households had a greater chance of owning a bike due to preference changes with less sensitivity to smaller home footprints and limited incomes. The behavioral hypothesis of positive preference change due to information transfer was confirmed. Observed ownership share closely matched predicted local-level equilibrium in some metropolitan areas but was unable to achieve expected prediction rate within confidence intervals. Finally, the elasticity of social influence was found to range locally from about 0.5% to 1.0%.« less

General theory of excitation energy transfer in donor-mediator-acceptor systems.

PubMed

Kimura, Akihiro

2009-04-21

General theory of the excitation energy transfer (EET) in the case of donor-mediator-acceptor system was constructed by using generalized master equation (GME). In this theory, we consider the direct and indirect transitions in the EET consistently. Hence, our theory includes the quantum mechanical interference between the direct and indirect transitions automatically. Memory functions in the GME were expressed by the overlap integrals among the time-dependent emission spectrum of the donor, the absorption spectrum of the mediator, the time-dependent emission spectrum of the mediator, and the absorption spectrum of the acceptor. In the Markov limit of the memory functions, we obtained the rate of EET which consists of three terms due to the direct transition, the indirect transition, and the interference between them. We found that the interference works effectively in the limit of slow thermalization at the intermediate state. The formula of EET rate in this limit was expressed by the convolution of the EET interaction and optical spectra. The interference effect strongly depends on the width of the absorption spectrum of mediator molecule and the energy gap between the donor and the mediator molecules.

The health-related social costs of alcohol in Belgium.

PubMed

Verhaeghe, Nick; Lievens, Delfine; Annemans, Lieven; Vander Laenen, Freya; Putman, Koen

2017-12-16

Alcohol is associated with adverse health effects causing a considerable economic impact to society. A reliable estimate of this economic impact for Belgium is lacking. This is the aim of the study. A prevalence-based approach estimating the direct, indirect and intangible costs for the year 2012 was used. Attributional fractions for a series of health effects were derived from literature. The human capital approach was used to estimate indirect costs, while the concept of disability-adjusted life years was used to estimate intangible costs. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty around cost estimates and to evaluate the impact of alternative modelling assumptions. In 2012, total alcohol-attributable direct costs were estimated at €906.1 million, of which the majority were due to hospitalization (€743.7 million, 82%). The indirect costs amounted to €642.6 million, of which 62% was caused by premature mortality. Alcohol was responsible for 157,500 disability-adjusted life years representing €6.3 billion intangible costs. Despite a number of limitations intrinsic to this kind of research, the study can be considered as the most comprehensive analysis thus far of the health-related social costs of alcohol in Belgium.

The Impact of a Laki-style Eruption on Cloud Drops, Indirect Radiative Forcing and Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carslaw, K.; Schmidt, A.; Mann, G.; Pringle, K. J.; Forster, P.; Wilson, M.; Thordarson, T.

2010-12-01

We assess the impact of 1783-1784 Laki eruption on changes in cloud drop number concentrations and the aerosol indirect (cloud) radiative forcing using an advanced global aerosol microphysics model. We further extend these simulations to quantify the impact of a modern-day Laki on air quality. Our results suggest that the first aerosol indirect effect is of similar magnitude as the direct forcing calculated in previous assessments of the Laki eruption, but has a different spatial pattern. We estimate that northern hemisphere mean cloud drop concentrations in low-level clouds increased by a factor 2.7 in the 3 months after the onset of the eruption, with peak changes exceeding a factor 10. The calculated northern hemisphere mean aerosol indirect effect peaks at -5.2 W/m2 in the month after the eruption and remains larger than -2 W/m2 for 6 months. From our understanding of anthropogenic aerosol effects on modern-day clouds, the calculated changes in cloud drop concentrations after Laki are likely to have caused substantial changes in pecipitation and cloud dynamics. Our results also show that a modern-day Laki-style volcanic air pollution event would be a severe health hazard, increasing excess mortality in Europe on a scale that is at least comparable with excess mortality due to seasonal flu. Investigating the potential impact of such an eruption is crucial in order to inform policy makers and society about the potential impact of such an event so that precautionary measures can be taken.

Transdiagnostic Factors and Mediation of the Relationship Between Perceived Racial Discrimination and Mental Disorders.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Seijas, Craig; Stohl, Malki; Hasin, Deborah S; Eaton, Nicholas R

2015-07-01

Multivariable comorbidity research indicates that many common mental disorders are manifestations of 2 latent transdiagnostic factors, internalizing and externalizing. Environmental stressors are known to increase the risk for experiencing particular mental disorders, but their relationships with transdiagnostic disorder constructs are unknown. The present study investigated one such stressor, perceived racial discrimination, which is robustly associated with a variety of mental disorders. To examine the direct and indirect associations between perceived racial discrimination and common forms of psychopathology. Quantitative analysis of 12 common diagnoses that were previously assessed in a nationally representative sample (N = 5191) of African American and Afro-Caribbean adults in the United States, taken from the National Survey of American Life, and used to test the possibility that transdiagnostic factors mediate the effects of discrimination on disorders. The data were obtained from February 2001 to March 2003. Latent variable measurement models, including factor analysis, and indirect effect models were used in the study. Mental health diagnoses from reliable and valid structured interviews and perceived race-based discrimination. While perceived discrimination was positively associated with all examined forms of psychopathology and substance use disorders, latent variable indirect effects modeling revealed that almost all of these associations were significantly mediated by the transdiagnostic factors. For social anxiety disorder and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, complete mediation was found. The pathways linking perceived discrimination to psychiatric disorders were not direct but indirect (via transdiagnostic factors). Therefore, perceived discrimination may be associated with risk for myriad psychiatric disorders due to its association with transdiagnostic factors.

Interaction effects between sender and receiver processes in indirect transmission of Campylobacter jejuni between broilers.

PubMed

van Bunnik, Bram A D; Hagenaars, Thomas J; Bolder, Nico M; Nodelijk, Gonnie; de Jong, Mart C M

2012-07-25

Infectious diseases in plants, animals and humans are often transmitted indirectly between hosts (or between groups of hosts), i.e. via some route through the environment instead of via direct contacts between these hosts. Here we study indirect transmission experimentally, using transmission of Campylobacter jejuni (C. jejuni) between spatially separated broilers as a model system. We distinguish three stages in the process of indirect transmission; (1) an infectious "sender" excretes the agent, after which (2) the agent is transported via some route to a susceptible "receiver", and subsequently (3) the receiver becomes colonised by the agent. The role of the sender and receiver side (stage 1 and stage 3) was studied here by using acidification of the drinking water as a modulation mechanism. In the experiment one control group and three treatment groups were monitored for the presence of C. jejuni by taking daily cloacal swabs. The three treatments consisted of acidification of the drinking water of the inoculated animals (the senders), acidification of the drinking water of the susceptible animals (the receivers) or acidification of the drinking water of both inoculated and susceptible animals. In the control group 12 animals got colonised out of a possible 40, in each treatment groups 3 animals out of a possible 40 were found colonised with C. jejuni. The results of the experiments show a significant decrease in transmission rate (β) between the control groups and treatment groups (p < 0.01 for all groups) but not between different treatments; there is a significant negative interaction effect when both the sender and the receiver group receive acidified drinking water (p = 0.01). This negative interaction effect could be due to selection of bacteria already at the sender side thereby diminishing the effect of acidification at the receiver side.

Economic evaluation of universal infant vaccination with 7vPCV in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Lee, Kenneth K C; Rinaldi, Fiona; Chan, Mia K U; Chan, Shirley T H; So, Thomas M T; Hon, Ellis K L; Lee, Vivian W Y

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical and economic benefits of routine infant vaccination with seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (7vPCV) in Hong Kong. A decision-analytic model was populated with local age-specific incidence data to simulate the expected health outcomes resulting from 7vPCV vaccination of a birth cohort of 57,100 children compared with an unvaccinated cohort over a 10-year horizon. Primary analyses were conducted from a payer perspective, using local inpatient and outpatient costs associated with the treatment of pneumococcal disease. Vaccine efficacy rates were consistent with results from pivotal clinical trials. The reduction in adult invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and associated cost avoidance due to the indirect effect of vaccination were estimated in line with published overseas rates. Universal 7vPCV vaccination was estimated to prevent 524 cases of IPD and more than 2580 cases of otitis media in the birth cohort over a 10-year period, leading to a reduction of HK$28.7 million (US$3.7 million) in direct medical costs. Additional cost savings from the indirect prevention of 919 adult cases of IPD during this time period also resulted. Overall, 7vPCV vaccination was estimated to have an incremental cost per life-year gained of HK$50,456 (US$6460) from a payer perspective or HK$46,308 (US$5929) when both direct and indirect costs were included. With reference to the World Health Organization's threshold for cost-effectiveness, results from this study indicate that routine infant vaccination with 7vPCV is a cost-effective intervention because of the added cost savings resulting from the indirect effect of vaccination on adult disease.

Plasma and catalyst for the oxidation of NOx

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jõgi, Indrek; Erme, Kalev; Levoll, Erik; Raud, Jüri; Stamate, Eugen

2018-03-01

Efficient exhaust gas cleaning from NO x (NO and NO2) by absorption and adsorption based methods requires the oxidation of NO. The application of non-thermal plasma is considered as a promising oxidation method but the oxidation of NO by direct plasma remains limited due to the back-reaction of NO2 to NO mediated by O radicals in plasma. Indirect NO oxidation by plasma produced ozone allows to circumvent the back-reaction and further oxidize NO2 to N2O5 but the slow reaction rate for the latter process limits the efficiency of this process. Present paper gives an overview of the role of metal-oxide catalysts in the improvement of oxidation efficiency for both direct and indirect plasma oxidation of NO x . The plasma produced active oxygen species (O, O3) were shown to play an important role in the reactions taking place on the catalyst surfaces while the exact mechanism and extent of the effect were different for direct and indirect oxidation. In the case of direct plasma oxidation, both short and long lifetime oxygen species could reach the catalyst and participate in the oxidation of NO to NO2. The back-reaction in the plasma phase remained still important factor and limited the effect of catalyst. In the case of indirect oxidation, only ozone could reach the catalyst surface and improve the oxidation of NO2 to N2O5. The effect of catalyst at different experimental conditions was quantitatively described with the aid of simple global chemical kinetic models derived for the NO x oxidation either by plasma or ozone. The models allowed to compare the effect of different catalysts and to analyze the limitations for the efficiency improvement by catalyst.

Indirect Genetic Effects and the Spread of Infectious Disease: Are We Capturing the Full Heritable Variation Underlying Disease Prevalence?

PubMed Central

Lipschutz-Powell, Debby; Woolliams, John A.; Bijma, Piter; Doeschl-Wilson, Andrea B.

2012-01-01

Reducing disease prevalence through selection for host resistance offers a desirable alternative to chemical treatment. Selection for host resistance has proven difficult, however, due to low heritability estimates. These low estimates may be caused by a failure to capture all the relevant genetic variance in disease resistance, as genetic analysis currently is not taylored to estimate genetic variation in infectivity. Host infectivity is the propensity of transmitting infection upon contact with a susceptible individual, and can be regarded as an indirect effect to disease status. It may be caused by a combination of physiological and behavioural traits. Though genetic variation in infectivity is difficult to measure directly, Indirect Genetic Effect (IGE) models, also referred to as associative effects or social interaction models, allow the estimation of this variance from more readily available binary disease data (infected/non-infected). We therefore generated binary disease data from simulated populations with known amounts of variation in susceptibility and infectivity to test the adequacy of traditional and IGE models. Our results show that a conventional model fails to capture the genetic variation in infectivity inherent in populations with simulated infectivity. An IGE model, on the other hand, does capture some of the variation in infectivity. Comparison with expected genetic variance suggests that there is scope for further methodological improvement, and that potential responses to selection may be greater than values presented here. Nonetheless, selection using an index of estimated direct and indirect breeding values was shown to have a greater genetic selection differential and reduced future disease risk than traditional selection for resistance only. These findings suggest that if genetic variation in infectivity substantially contributes to disease transmission, then breeding designs which explicitly incorporate IGEs might help reduce disease prevalence. PMID:22768088

Interactive coupling of regional climate and sulfate aerosol models over eastern Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Yun; Giorgi, Filippo

1999-03-01

The NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) is interactively coupled to a simple radiatively active sulfate aerosol model over eastern Asia. Both direct and indirect aerosol effects are represented. The coupled model system is tested for two simulation periods, November 1994 and July 1995, with aerosol sources representative of present-day anthropogenic sulfur emissions. The model sensitivity to the intensity of the aerosol source is also studied. The main conclusions from our work are as follows: (1) The aerosol distribution and cycling processes show substantial regional spatial variability, and temporal variability varying on a range of scales, from the diurnal scale of boundary layer and cumulus cloud evolution to the 3-10 day scale of synoptic scale events and the interseasonal scale of general circulation features; (2) both direct and indirect aerosol forcings have regional effects on surface climate; (3) the regional climate response to the aerosol forcing is highly nonlinear, especially during the summer, due to the interactions with cloud and precipitation processes; (4) in our simulations the role of the aerosol indirect effects is dominant over that of direct effects; (5) aerosol-induced feedback processes can affect the aerosol burdens at the subregional scale. This work constitutes the first step in a long term research project aimed at coupling a hierarchy of chemistry/aerosol models to the RegCM over the eastern Asia region.

[Climate change - physical and mental consequences].

PubMed

Bunz, Maxie; Mücke, Hans-Guido

2017-06-01

Climate change has already had a large influence on the human environmental system and directly or indirectly affects physical and mental health. Triggered by extreme meteorological conditions, for example, storms, floods, earth slides and heat periods, the direct consequences range from illnesses to serious accidents with injuries, or in extreme cases fatalities. Indirectly, a changed environment due to climate change affects, amongst other things, the cardiovascular system and respiratory tract, and can also cause allergies and infectious diseases. In addition, increasing confrontation with environmental impacts may cause negative psychological effects such as posttraumatic stress disorders and anxiety, but also aggression, distress and depressive symptoms. The extent and severity of the health consequences depend on individual pre-disposition, resilience, behaviour and adaptation.

Conceptualizing and Testing Random Indirect Effects and Moderated Mediation in Multilevel Models: New Procedures and Recommendations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bauer, Daniel J.; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Gil, Karen M.

2006-01-01

The authors propose new procedures for evaluating direct, indirect, and total effects in multilevel models when all relevant variables are measured at Level 1 and all effects are random. Formulas are provided for the mean and variance of the indirect and total effects and for the sampling variances of the average indirect and total effects.…

The role of carbonaceous aerosols on short-term variations of precipitation over North Africa

DOE PAGES

Yoon, Jin -Ho; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong; ...

2016-06-16

Northern Africa has been subject to extensive droughts in the late 20th century, which are frequently linked to changes in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. However, climate models forced by observed Sea Surface Temperatures have been unable to reproduce the magnitude of rainfall reduction over the last several decades. In this study, we propose that aerosol indirect effects (AIE) may be an important feedback mechanism to contribute this recent reduction. The climate model used here has a fully predictive aerosol life cycle. Results are presented for a set of sensitivity experiments designed tomore » distinguish the role of aerosol direct/semi-­direct and indirect effects on regional precipitation. Changes in cloud lifetime due to the presence of carbonaceous aerosols are proposed as a key mechanism to explain the reduced rainfall over the tropical and North Africa.« less

The role of carbonaceous aerosols on short-term variations of precipitation over North Africa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Jin -Ho; Rasch, Philip J.; Wang, Hailong

Northern Africa has been subject to extensive droughts in the late 20th century, which are frequently linked to changes in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in both the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. However, climate models forced by observed Sea Surface Temperatures have been unable to reproduce the magnitude of rainfall reduction over the last several decades. In this study, we propose that aerosol indirect effects (AIE) may be an important feedback mechanism to contribute this recent reduction. The climate model used here has a fully predictive aerosol life cycle. Results are presented for a set of sensitivity experiments designed tomore » distinguish the role of aerosol direct/semi-­direct and indirect effects on regional precipitation. Changes in cloud lifetime due to the presence of carbonaceous aerosols are proposed as a key mechanism to explain the reduced rainfall over the tropical and North Africa.« less

Long shadow of fear in an epidemic: fearonomic effects of Ebola on the private sector in Nigeria.

PubMed

Bali, Sulzhan; Stewart, Kearsley A; Pate, Muhammad Ali

2016-01-01

The already significant impact of the Ebola epidemic on Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, was worsened by a fear of contagion that aggravated the health crisis. However, in contrast to other Ebola-affected countries, Nigeria fared significantly better due to its swift containment of the disease. The objective of our study was to describe the impact of Ebola on the Nigerian private sector. This paper introduces and defines the term fearonomic effect as the direct and indirect economic effects of both misinformation as well as fear-induced aversion behaviour, exhibited by individuals, organisations or countries during an outbreak or an epidemic. This study was designed as a cross-sectional mixed-methods study that used semistructured in-depth interviews and a supporting survey to capture the impact of Ebola on the Nigerian private sector after the outbreak. Themes were generated from the interviews on the direct and indirect impact of Ebola on the private sector; the impact of misinformation and fear-based aversion behaviour in the private sector. Our findings reveal that the fearonomic effects of Ebola included health service outages and reduced healthcare usage as a result of misinformation and aversion behaviour by both patients and providers. Although certain sectors (eg, health sector, aviation sector, hospitality sector) in Nigeria were affected more than others, no business was immune to Ebola's fearonomic effects. We describe how sectors expected to prosper during the outbreak (eg, pharmaceuticals), actually suffered due to the changes in consumption patterns and demand shocks. In a high-stressor epidemic-like setting, altered consumption behaviour due to distorted disease perception, misinformation and fear can trigger short-term economic cascades that can disproportionately affect businesses and lead to financial insecurity of the poorest and the most vulnerable in a society.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butov, L. V., E-mail: lvbutov@physics.ucsd.edu

Due to their long lifetimes, indirect excitons can cool to below the temperature of quantum degeneracy. This gives an opportunity to experimentally study cold composite bosons. Both theoretically predicted phenomena and phenomena that have not been anticipated were observed in a cold gas of indirect excitons. In this contribution, we overview our studies of cold indirect excitons over the past decade, presenting spontaneous coherence and condensation of excitons, spatially modulated exciton state, long-range spin currents and spin textures, and exciton localization–delocalization transitions.

Evaluating The Indirect Effect of Cirrus Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobbie, S.; Jonas, P. R.

What effect would an increase in nucleating aerosols have on the radiative and cloud properties? What error would be incurred by evaluating the indirect effect by taking an evolved cloud and fixing the integrated water content and vary the number of ice crystals? These questions will be addressed in this work. We will use the UK LES cloud resolving model to perform a sensitivity study for cirrus clouds to the indirect effect, and will evaluate approximate methods in the process. In this work, we will initialize the base (no increase of aerosol) cirrus clouds so that the double moment scheme is constrained to agree with observations through the ef- fective radius. Effective radius is calculated using the local concentration and the ice water content. We then perform a sensitivity experiment to investigate the dependence of the average IWC, effective size, and radiative properties (including heating rates) to variations in the nucleation rate. Conclusions will be draw as to the possible ef- fect of changes in aerosol amounts on cirrus. We will determine how sensitive the cloud and radiative properties are to various aerosol increases. We will also discuss the applicability of the Meyer et al. (1992) nucleation formulae for our simulations. It is important to stress that in this work we only change the nucleation rate for the newly forming cloud. By doing this, we are not fixing the total water content and redistributing the water amongst increased ice crystals. We increase the number of aerosols available to be nucleated and allow the model to evolve the size distributions. In this way, there is competition for the water vapour, the ice particles are evolved dynamically with different fall speeds, the conversion rates to other hydrometers (such as aggregates) are affected, and the heating rates are different due to the different size distributions that evolve. We will look at how the water content, the distribution of water, and the radiative properties are affected by the indirect effect.

Confidence Limits for the Indirect Effect: Distribution of the Product and Resampling Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacKinnon, David P.; Lockwood, Chondra M.; Williams, Jason

2004-01-01

The most commonly used method to test an indirect effect is to divide the estimate of the indirect effect by its standard error and compare the resulting z statistic with a critical value from the standard normal distribution. Confidence limits for the indirect effect are also typically based on critical values from the standard normal…

Spatially indirect excitons in coupled quantum wells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lai, Chih-Wei Eddy

2004-03-01

Microscopic quantum phenomena such as interference or phase coherence between different quantum states are rarely manifest in macroscopic systems due to a lack of significant correlation between different states. An exciton system is one candidate for observation of possible quantum collective effects. In the dilute limit, excitons in semiconductors behave as bosons and are expected to undergo Bose-Einstein condensation (BEC) at a temperature several orders of magnitude higher than for atomic BEC because of their light mass. Furthermore, well-developed modern semiconductor technologies offer flexible manipulations of an exciton system. Realization of BEC in solid-state systems can thus provide new opportunitiesmore » for macroscopic quantum coherence research. In semiconductor coupled quantum wells (CQW) under across-well static electric field, excitons exist as separately confined electron-hole pairs. These spatially indirect excitons exhibit a radiative recombination time much longer than their thermal relaxation time a unique feature in direct band gap semiconductor based structures. Their mutual repulsive dipole interaction further stabilizes the exciton system at low temperature and screens in-plane disorder more effectively. All these features make indirect excitons in CQW a promising system to search for quantum collective effects. Properties of indirect excitons in CQW have been analyzed and investigated extensively. The experimental results based on time-integrated or time-resolved spatially-resolved photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy and imaging are reported in two categories. (i) Generic indirect exciton systems: general properties of indirect excitons such as the dependence of exciton energy and lifetime on electric fields and densities were examined. (ii) Quasi-two-dimensional confined exciton systems: highly statistically degenerate exciton systems containing more than tens of thousands of excitons within areas as small as (10 micrometer) 2 were observed. The spatial and energy distributions of optically active excitons were used as thermodynamic quantities to construct a phase diagram of the exciton system, demonstrating the existence of distinct phases. Optical and electrical properties of the CQW sample were examined thoroughly to provide deeper understanding of the formation mechanisms of these cold exciton systems. These insights offer new strategies for producing cold exciton systems, which may lead to opportunities for the realization of BEC in solid-state systems.« less

Indirect effect of changing aerosol concentrations on methane and ozone radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowlinson, Matthew; Rap, Alexandru; Arnold, Steve; Forster, Piers; Chipperfield, Martyn

2017-04-01

Atmospheric aerosols interact with climate in number of complex ways and quantifying the overall effect remains the dominant uncertainty in estimating anthropogenic climate forcing (IPCC, 2013). The radiative forcing (RF) caused by the direct effect of aerosol interacting with radiation is estimated at -0.35 (-0.85 to +0.15) Wm-2, while cloud-aerosol interactions are estimated at -0.45 (-1.2 to 0.0) Wm-2 (IPCC, 2013). The net impact is a cooling with an effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 0.9 (-1.9 to -0.1) Wm-2 (IPCC, 2013). One effect of aerosols which has not been well evaluated is their effect on atmospheric chemistry. Atmospheric aerosols provide a surface for homogeneous reactions to occur, altering reactions rates and the availability of oxidants, thereby influencing the removal/production of radiatively important species such as methane (CH4) and tropospheric ozone (O3). Oxidants such as the hydroxyl radical (OH) determine the atmospheric lifetime and hence burden of CH4, therefore changes to atmospheric aerosols which impact oxidation chemistry will also influence RF due to CH4. This effect could enhance or offset the negative RF of aerosols, depending on how the individual aerosol changes availability of oxidants. Quantifying the importance of this mechanism for RF is necessary to provide accurate estimates of the effect of aerosols, and assess relative effectiveness of measures to decrease aerosol emissions and precursors. Using a sophisticated aerosol micro-physics model (GLOMAP) coupled to the TOMCAT three-dimensional chemical transport model, we separately simulate changes in atmospheric composition resulting from a 50% decline in anthropogenic emissions of black carbon aerosol (BC), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and anthropogenic precursors of sulphate and nitrate. The impact of changes to each aerosol on lifetime of CH4 is then calculated to establish the resulting impact on CH4 burden and RF. Cutting global anthropogenic SO2 emissions by 50% decreases atmospheric sulpate concentrations by 44% after 2 years, while increasing global OH concentrations by 0.9%. CH4 lifetime is reduced by approximately 50 days as a result, leading to a decrease in CH4 burden of 38ppb. NOx is anticipated to have a similar but much larger effect (Matsui and Koike 2016). The Edwards and Slingo offline radiation model is also used to calculate changes to direct and indirect aerosol forcing. Presented here is the net RF change following 50% emission decrease of each aerosol or precursors, accounting for the direct and indirect aerosol effect as well as indirect effects via oxidation chemistry on the RF due to CH4 and tropospheric O3.

Thioredoxin-1 Negatively Modulates ADAM17 Activity Through Direct Binding and Indirect Reductive Activity.

PubMed

Granato, Daniela C; E Costa, Rute A P; Kawahara, Rebeca; Yokoo, Sami; Aragão, Annelize Z; Domingues, Romênia R; Pauletti, Bianca A; Honorato, Rodrigo V; Fattori, Juliana; Figueira, Ana Carolina M; Oliveira, Paulo S L; Consonni, Silvio R; Fernandes, Denise; Laurindo, Francisco; Hansen, Hinrich P; Paes Leme, Adriana F

2018-02-27

A disintegrin and metalloprotease 17 (ADAM17) modulates signaling events by releasing surface protein ectodomains such as TNFa and the EGFR-ligands. We have previously characterized cytoplasmic thioredoxin-1 (Trx-1) as a partner of ADAM17 cytoplasmic domain. Still, the mechanism of ADAM17 regulation by Trx-1 is unknown, and it has become of paramount importance to assess the degree of influence that Trx-1 has on metalloproteinase ADAM17. Combining discovery and targeted proteomic approaches, we uncovered that Trx-1 negatively regulates ADAM17 by direct and indirect effect. We performed cell-based assays with synthetic peptides and site-directed mutagenesis, and we demonstrated that the interaction interface of Trx-1 and ADAM17 is important for the negative regulation of ADAM17 activity. However, both Trx-1 K72A and catalytic site mutant Trx-1 C32/35S rescued ADAM17 activity, although the interaction with Trx-1 C32/35S was unaffected, suggesting an indirect effect of Trx-1. We confirmed that the Trx-1 C32/35S mutant showed diminished reductive capacity, explaining this indirect effect on increasing ADAM17 activity through oxidant levels. Interestingly, Trx-1 K72A mutant showed similar oxidant levels to Trx-1 C32/35S , even though its catalytic site was preserved. We further demonstrated that the general reactive oxygen species inhibitor, Nacetylcysteine (NAC), maintained the regulation of ADAM17 dependent of Trx-1 reductase activity levels; whereas the electron transport chain modulator, rotenone, abolished Trx-1 effect on ADAM17 activity. We show for the first time that the mechanism of ADAM17 regulation, Trx-1 dependent, can be by direct interaction and indirect effect, bringing new insights into the cross-talk between isomerases and mammalian metalloproteinases. This unexpected Trx-1 K72A behavior was due to more dimer formation and, consequently, the reduction of its Trx-1 reductase activity, evaluated through dimer verification, by gel filtration and mass spectrometry analysis. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 00, 000-000.

Experimental evidence for the evolution of indirect genetic effects: changes in the interaction effect coefficient, psi (Psi), due to sexual selection.

PubMed

Chenoweth, Stephen F; Rundle, Howard D; Blows, Mark W

2010-06-01

Indirect genetics effects (IGEs)--when the genotype of one individual affects the phenotypic expression of a trait in another--may alter evolutionary trajectories beyond that predicted by standard quantitative genetic theory as a consequence of genotypic evolution of the social environment. For IGEs to occur, the trait of interest must respond to one or more indicator traits in interacting conspecifics. In quantitative genetic models of IGEs, these responses (reaction norms) are termed interaction effect coefficients and are represented by the parameter psi (Psi). The extent to which Psi exhibits genetic variation within a population, and may therefore itself evolve, is unknown. Using an experimental evolution approach, we provide evidence for a genetic basis to the phenotypic response caused by IGEs on sexual display traits in Drosophila serrata. We show that evolution of the response is affected by sexual but not natural selection when flies adapt to a novel environment. Our results indicate a further mechanism by which IGEs can alter evolutionary trajectories--the evolution of interaction effects themselves.

Habitat diversity and ecosystem multifunctionality—The importance of direct and indirect effects

PubMed Central

Alsterberg, Christian; Roger, Fabian; Sundbäck, Kristina; Juhanson, Jaanis; Hulth, Stefan; Hallin, Sara; Gamfeldt, Lars

2017-01-01

Ecosystems worldwide are facing habitat homogenization due to human activities. Although it is commonly proposed that such habitat homogenization can have negative repercussions for ecosystem functioning, this question has yet to receive explicit scientific attention. We expand on the framework for evaluating the functional consequences of biodiversity loss by scaling up from the level of species to the level of the entire habitats. Just as species diversity generally fosters ecosystem functioning through positive interspecies interactions, we hypothesize that different habitats within ecosystems can facilitate each other through structural complementarity and through exchange of material and energy across habitats. We show that experimental ecosystems comprised of a diversity of habitats show higher levels of multiple ecosystem functions than ecosystems with low habitat diversity. Our results demonstrate that the effect of habitat diversity on multifunctionality varies with season; it has direct effects on ecosystem functioning in summer and indirect effects, via changes in species diversity, in autumn, but no effect in spring. We propose that joint consideration of habitat diversity and species diversity will prove valuable for both environmental management and basic research. PMID:28246634

Proximity to a high traffic road: glucocorticoid and life history consequences for nestling white-crowned sparrows.

PubMed

Crino, O L; Van Oorschot, B Klaassen; Johnson, E E; Malisch, J L; Breuner, C W

2011-09-01

Roads have been associated with decreased reproductive success and biodiversity in avian communities and increased physiological stress in adult birds. Alternatively, roads may also increase food availability and reduce predator pressure. Previous studies have focused on adult birds, but nestlings may also be susceptible to the detrimental impacts of roads. We examined the effects of proximity to a road on nestling glucocorticoid activity and growth in the mountain white-crowned sparrow (Zonotrichia leucophrys oriantha). Additionally, we examined several possible indirect factors that may influence nestling corticosterone (CORT) activity secretion in relation to roads. These indirect effects include parental CORT activity, nest-site characteristics, and parental provisioning. And finally, we assessed possible fitness consequences of roads through measures of fledging success. Nestlings near roads had increased CORT activity, elevated at both baseline and stress-induced levels. Surprisingly, these nestlings were also bigger. Generally, greater corticosterone activity is associated with reduced growth. However, the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis matures through the nestling period (as nestlings get larger, HPA-activation is greater). Although much of the variance in CORT responses was explained by body size, nestling CORT responses were higher close to roads after controlling for developmental differences. Indirect effects of roads may be mediated through paternal care. Nestling CORT responses were correlated with paternal CORT responses and paternal provisioning increased near roads. Hence, nestlings near roads may be larger due to increased paternal attentiveness. And finally, nest predation was higher for nests close to the road. Roads have apparent costs for white-crowned sparrow nestlings--increased predation, and apparent benefits--increased size. The elevation in CORT activity seems to reflect both increased size (benefit) and elevation due to road proximity (cost). Whether or not roads are good or bad for nestlings remains equivocal. However, it is clear that roads affect nestlings; how or if these effects influence adult survival or reproduction remains to be elucidated. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relativistic effects on the NMR parameters of Si, Ge, Sn, and Pb alkynyl compounds: Scalar versus spin-orbit effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Taye B.

2017-11-01

The NMR chemical shifts and indirect spin-spin coupling constants of 12 molecules containing 29Si, 73Ge, 119Sn, and 207Pb [X(CCMe)4, Me2X(CCMe)2, and Me3XCCH] are presented. The results are obtained from non-relativistic as well as two- and four-component relativistic density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The scalar and spin-orbit relativistic contributions as well as the total relativistic corrections are determined. The main relativistic effect in these molecules is not due to spin-orbit coupling but rather to the scalar relativistic contraction of the s-shells. The correlation between the calculated and experimental indirect spin-spin coupling constants showed that the four-component relativistic density functional theory (DFT) approach using the Perdew's hybrid scheme exchange-correlation functional (PBE0; using the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof exchange and correlation functionals) gives results in good agreement with experimental values. The indirect spin-spin coupling constants calculated using the spin-orbit zeroth order regular approximation together with the hybrid PBE0 functional and the specially designed J-coupling (JCPL) basis sets are in good agreement with the results obtained from the four-component relativistic calculations. For the coupling constants involving the heavy atoms, the relativistic corrections are of the same order of magnitude compared to the non-relativistically calculated results. Based on the comparisons of the calculated results with available experimental values, the best results for all the chemical shifts and non-existing indirect spin-spin coupling constants for all the molecules are reported, hoping that these accurate results will be used to benchmark future DFT calculations. The present study also demonstrates that the four-component relativistic DFT method has reached a level of maturity that makes it a convenient and accurate tool to calculate indirect spin-spin coupling constants of "large" molecular systems involving heavy atoms.

Indirect effects in community ecology: Their definition, study and importance.

PubMed

Strauss, S Y

1991-07-01

The diversity of indirect interactions that can occur within communities is large. Recent research on indirect interactions is scattered in the literature under numerous labels. The definition of indirect effects is an important aspect of their study, and clarifies some of the subtle differences among indirect effects found in natural communities. Choosing which species to study, how to manipulate species and for what duration, which attributes to measure and, finally, which analytical techniques to use are all problems facing the community ecologist. Ultimately, we are striving for the best means of determining the relative importance of direct and indirect effects in structuring communities. Copyright © 1991. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Consistency between direct and indirect trial evidence: is direct evidence always more reliable?

PubMed

Madan, Jason; Stevenson, Matt D; Cooper, Katy L; Ades, A E; Whyte, Sophie; Akehurst, Ron

2011-01-01

To present a case study involving the reduction in incidence of febrile neutropenia (FN) after chemotherapy with granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs), illustrating difficulties that may arise when following the common preference for direct evidence over indirect evidence. Evidence of the efficacy of treatments was identified from two previous systematic reviews. We used Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate relative treatment effects based on direct evidence, indirect evidence, and both pooled together. We checked for inconsistency between direct and indirect evidence and explored the role of one specific trial using cross-validation. A subsequent review identified further studies not available at the time of the original analysis. We repeated the analyses on the enlarged evidence base. We found substantial inconsistency in the original evidence base. The median odds ratio of FN for primary pegfilgrastim versus no primary G-CSF was 0.06 (95% credible interval: 0.02-0.19) based on direct evidence, but 0.27 (95% credible interval: 0.13-0.53) based on indirect evidence (P value for consistency hypothesis 0.027). The additional trials were consistent with the earlier indirect, rather than the direct, evidence, and there was no inconsistency between direct and indirect estimates in the updated evidence. The earlier inconsistency was due to one trial comparing primary pegfilgrastim with no primary G-CSF. Predictive cross-validation showed that this study was inconsistent with the evidence as a whole and with other trials making this comparison. Both the Cochrane Handbook and the NICE Methods Guide express a preference for direct evidence. A more robust strategy, which is in line with the accepted principles of evidence synthesis, would be to combine all relevant and appropriate information, whether direct or indirect. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Response of different regional online coupled models to aerosol-radiation interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Renate; Balzarini, Alessandra; Brunner, Dominik; Baró, Rocio; Curci, Gabriele; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro; Jorba, Oriol; Pérez, Juan L.; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Schröder, Wolfram; Tuccella, Paolo; Werhahn, Johannes; Wolke, Ralf; Žabkar, Rahela

2016-04-01

The importance of aerosol-meteorology interactions and their representation in online coupled regional atmospheric chemistry-meteorology models was investigated in COST Action ES1004 (EuMetChem, http://eumetchem.info/). Case study results from different models (COSMO-Muscat, COSMO-ART, and different configurations of WRF-Chem), which were applied for Europe as a coordinated exercise for the year 2010, are analyzed with respect to inter-model variability and the response of the different models to direct and indirect aerosol-radiation interactions. The main focus was on two episodes - the Russian heat wave and wildfires episode in July/August 2010 and a period in October 2010 with enhanced cloud cover and rain and including an of Saharan dust transport to Europe. Looking at physical plausibility the decrease in downward solar radiation and daytime temperature due to the direct aerosol effect is robust for all model configurations. The same holds for the pronounced decrease in cloud water content and increase in solar radiation for cloudy conditions and very low aerosol concentrations that was found for WRF-Chem when aerosol cloud interactions were considered. However, when the differences were tested for statistical significance no significant differences in mean solar radiation and mean temperature between the baseline case and the simulations including the direct and indirect effect from simulated aerosol concentrations were found over Europe for the October episode. Also for the fire episode differences between mean temperature and radiation from the simulations with and without the direct aerosol effect were not significant for the major part of the modelling domain. Only for the region with high fire emissions in Russia, the differences in mean solar radiation and temperature due to the direct effect were found to be significant during the second half of the fire episode - however only for a significance level of 0.1. The few observational data indicate that the inclusion of aerosol radiative effects improves simulated temperatures in this area. In summary, the direct aerosol effect leads to lower temperatures and PBL heights for all seasons whereas the impact of the aerosol indirect effect on temperature and pollutant concentrations over Northern Europe was found to depend strongly on the season. It cannot be generalized whether the inclusion of aerosol radiative effects and aerosol cloud interactions based on simulated aerosol concentrations does improve the simulation results. Furthermore, assumptions how aerosol optical properties are calculated, i.e. on the aerosol's mixing state have a strong effect on simulated aerosol optical depth and the aerosol effect on incoming solar radiation and temperature. The inter-model variation of the response of different online coupled models suggests that further work comparing the methodologies and parameterizations used to represent the direct and indirect aerosol effect in these models is still necessary.

Smoking Cessation Is Associated With Lower Indirect Costs.

PubMed

Baker, Christine L; Bruno, Marianna; Emir, Birol; Li, Vicky W; Goren, Amir

2018-06-01

This study quantified differences in indirect costs due to decreased work productivity between current and former smokers. Former smokers were further categorized by number of years since quitting to assess corresponding differences. Data on employed individuals were obtained from the 2013 US National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS; N = 75,000). Indirect costs were calculated for current smokers and former smokers from weekly wages based on age and sex. The annual total indirect costs for current smokers were $1327.53, $1560.18, and $1839.87 higher than for those who quit 0 to 4 years, 5 to 10 years, and more than or equal to 11 years prior, respectively. There were no significant differences in mean total indirect costs between the former smoker groups. Current smokers showed significantly higher total annual indirect costs compared with former smokers, independently of the number of years since quitting smoking.

Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodros, J. K.; Scott, C. E.; Farina, S. C.; Lee, Y. H.; L'Orange, C.; Volckens, J.; Pierce, J. R.

2015-04-01

Aerosol emissions from biofuel combustion impact both health and climate; however, while reducing emissions through improvements to combustion technologies will improve health, the net effect on climate is largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine sensitivities in global aerosol concentration, direct radiative climate effect, and cloud-albedo aerosol indirect climate effect to uncertainties in biofuel emission factors, optical mixing-state, and model nucleation and background SOA. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global chemical-transport model (GEOS-Chem) with TwO Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics. The emission factors include: amount, composition, size and hygroscopicity, as well as optical mixing-state properties. We also evaluate emissions from domestic coal use, which is not biofuel but is also frequently emitted from homes. We estimate the direct radiative effect assuming different mixing states (internal, core-shell, and external) with and without absorptive organic aerosol (brown carbon). We find the global-mean direct radiative effect of biofuel emissions ranges from -0.02 to +0.06 W m-2 across all simulation/mixing state combinations with regional effects in source regions ranging from -0.2 to +1.2 W m-2. The global-mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect ranges from +0.01 to -0.02 W m-2 with regional effects in source regions ranging from -1.0 to -0.05 W m-2. The direct radiative effect is strongly dependent on uncertainties in emissions mass, composition, emissions aerosol size distributions and assumed optical mixing state, while the indirect effect is dependent on the emissions mass, emissions aerosol size distribution and the choice of model nucleation and secondary organic aerosol schemes. The sign and magnitude of these effects have a strong regional dependence. We conclude that the climate effects of biofuel aerosols are largely unconstrained, and the overall sign of the aerosol effects is unclear due to uncertainties in model inputs. This uncertainty limits our ability to introduce mitigation strategies aimed at reducing biofuel black carbon emissions in order to counter warming effects from greenhouse-gases. To better understand the climate impact of particle emissions from biofuel combustion, we recommend field/laboratory measurements to narrow constraints on: (1) emissions mass, (2) emission size distribution, (3) mixing state, and (4) ratio of black carbon to organic aerosol.

Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kodros, J. K.; Scott, C. E.; Farina, S. C.; Lee, Y. H.; L'Orange, C.; Volckens, J.; Pierce, J. R.

2015-08-01

Aerosol emissions from biofuel combustion impact both health and climate; however, while reducing emissions through improvements to combustion technologies will improve health, the net effect on climate is largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine sensitivities in global aerosol concentration, direct radiative climate effect, and cloud-albedo aerosol indirect climate effect to uncertainties in biofuel emission factors, optical mixing state, and model nucleation and background secondary organic aerosol (SOA). We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global chemical-transport model (GEOS-Chem) with TwO Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics. The emission factors include amount, composition, size, and hygroscopicity, as well as optical mixing-state properties. We also evaluate emissions from domestic coal use, which is not biofuel but is also frequently emitted from homes. We estimate the direct radiative effect assuming different mixing states (homogeneous, core-shell, and external) with and without absorptive organic aerosol (brown carbon). We find the global-mean direct radiative effect of biofuel emissions ranges from -0.02 to +0.06 W m-2 across all simulation/mixing-state combinations with regional effects in source regions ranging from -0.2 to +0.8 W m-2. The global-mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect (AIE) ranges from +0.01 to -0.02 W m-2 with regional effects in source regions ranging from -1.0 to -0.05 W m-2. The direct radiative effect is strongly dependent on uncertainties in emissions mass, composition, emissions aerosol size distributions, and assumed optical mixing state, while the indirect effect is dependent on the emissions mass, emissions aerosol size distribution, and the choice of model nucleation and secondary organic aerosol schemes. The sign and magnitude of these effects have a strong regional dependence. We conclude that the climate effects of biofuel aerosols are largely unconstrained, and the overall sign of the aerosol effects is unclear due to uncertainties in model inputs. This uncertainty limits our ability to introduce mitigation strategies aimed at reducing biofuel black carbon emissions in order to counter warming effects from greenhouse gases. To better understand the climate impact of particle emissions from biofuel combustion, we recommend field/laboratory measurements to narrow constraints on (1) emissions mass, (2) emission size distribution, (3) mixing state, and (4) ratio of black carbon to organic aerosol.

A Three-way Decomposition of a Total Effect into Direct, Indirect, and Interactive Effects

PubMed Central

VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2013-01-01

Recent theory in causal inference has provided concepts for mediation analysis and effect decomposition that allow one to decompose a total effect into a direct and an indirect effect. Here, it is shown that what is often taken as an indirect effect can in fact be further decomposed into a “pure” indirect effect and a mediated interactive effect, thus yielding a three-way decomposition of a total effect (direct, indirect, and interactive). This three-way decomposition applies to difference scales and also to additive ratio scales and additive hazard scales. Assumptions needed for the identification of each of these three effects are discussed and simple formulae are given for each when regression models allowing for interaction are used. The three-way decomposition is illustrated by examples from genetic and perinatal epidemiology, and discussion is given to what is gained over the traditional two-way decomposition into simply a direct and an indirect effect. PMID:23354283

Multi-year application of WRF-CAM5 over East Asia-Part II: Interannual variability, trend analysis, and aerosol indirect effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; He, Jian

2017-09-01

Following a comprehensive evaluation of WRF-CAM5 in Part I, Part II describes analyses of interannual variability, multi-year variation trends, and the direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols. The interannual variations of chemical column and surface concentrations, and ozone (O3)/particulate matter (PM) indicators are strongly correlated to anthropogenic emission changes. Despite model biases, the model captures well the observed interannual variations of temperature at 2-m, cloud fraction, shortwave cloud forcing, downwelling shortwave radiation, cloud droplet number concentration, column O3, and column formaldehyde (HCHO) for the whole domain. While the model reproduces the volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes of O3 chemistry at sites in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and from the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET) and the degree of sulfate neutralization at the EANET sites, it has limited capability in capturing the interannual variations of the ratio of O3 and nitrogen dioxide (O3/NO2) and PM chemical regime indicators, due to uncertainties in the emissions of precursors for O3 and secondary PM, the model assumption for ammonium bisulfate (NH4HSO4) as well as lack of gas/particle partitioning of total ammonia and total nitrate. While the variation trends in multi-year periods in aerosol optical depth and column concentrations of carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and NO2 are mainly caused by anthropogenic emissions, those of major meteorological and cloud variables partly reflect feedbacks of chemistry to meteorological variables. The impacts of anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects either dominate or play an important role in the aerosol total effects for most cloud and chemical predictions, whereas anthropogenic aerosol direct effects influence most meteorological and radiation variables. The direct, indirect, and total effects of anthropogenic aerosols exhibit a strong interannual variability in 2001, 2006, and 2011.

Sarcoptes scabiei: The Mange Mite with Mighty Effects on the Common Wombat (Vombatus ursinus)

PubMed Central

Simpson, Kellie; Johnson, Christopher N.; Carver, Scott

2016-01-01

Parasitism has both direct and indirect effects on hosts. Indirect effects (such as behavioural changes) may be common, although are often poorly described. This study examined sarcoptic mange (caused by the mite Sarcoptes scabiei) in the common wombat (Vombatus ursinus), a species that shows severe symptoms of infection and often causes mortality. Wombats showed alterations to above ground behaviours associated with mange. Infected wombats were shown to be active outside of the burrow for longer than healthy individuals. Additionally, they spent more time scratching and drinking, and less time walking as a proportion of time spent above ground when compared with healthy individuals. They did not spend a higher proportion of time feeding, but did have a slower feeding rate and were in poorer body condition. Thermal images showed that wombats with mange lost considerably more heat to the environment due to a diminished insulation layer. Infection status did not have an effect on burrow emergence time, although this was strongly dependent on maximum daily temperature. This study, through the most detailed behavioural observations of wombats to date, contributes to a broader understanding of how mange affects wombat health and abundance, and also to our understanding of the evolution of host responses to this parasite. Despite being globally dispersed and impacting over 100 species with diverse intrinsic host traits, the effects of mange on hosts are relatively poorly understood, and it is possible that similar effects of this disease are conserved in other host species. The indirect effects that we observed may extend to other pathogen types. PMID:26943790

Indirect costs related to caregivers' absence from work after paediatric tonsil surgery.

PubMed

Gudnadottir, Gunnhildur; Tennvall, G Ragnarson; Stalfors, J; Hellgren, J

2017-06-01

Tonsillotomy has gradually replaced tonsillectomy as the surgical method of choice in children with upper airway obstruction during sleep, because of less postoperative pain and a shorter recovery time. The aim of this study was to examine the costs related to caregivers' absenteeism from work after tonsillectomy (TE) and tonsillotomy (TT). All tonsillectomies and tonsillotomies in Sweden due to upper airway obstruction during 1 year, reported to the National Tonsil Surgery Register in children aged 1-11 were included, n = 4534. The number of days the child needed analgesics after surgery was used as a proxy to estimate the number of work days lost for the caregiver. Data from the Social Insurance Agency (Försäkringskassan) regarding the days the parents received temporary parental benefits in the month following surgery were also analysed. The indirect costs due to the caregivers' absenteeism after tonsillectomy vs tonsillotomy were calculated, using the human capital method. The patient-reported use of postoperative analgesic use was 77% (n = 3510). Data from the Social Insurance Agency were gathered for all 4534 children. The mean duration of analgesic treatment was 4.6 days (indirect cost of EUR 747). The mean number of days with parental benefits was 2.9 (EUR 667). The indirect cost of tonsillectomy was 61% higher than that of tonsillotomy (EUR 1010 vs EUR 629). The results show that the choice of surgical method affects the indirect costs, favouring the use of tonsillotomy over tonsillectomy for the treatment of children with SDB, due to less postoperative pain.

Speculations on the consequences to biology of space shuttle-associated increases in global UV-B radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Averner, M. M.; Macelroy, R. D.

1977-01-01

Various aspects of the impact of ozone depletion on the biosphere are assessed and discussed. Speculations on the factors which determine the extent and nature of biological damage due to an increased flux of ultra violet light are presented. It is concluded that a complete assessment must consider both direct effects (organisms) as well as indirect effects (ecosystems). The role of computer simulation of ecosystem models as a predictive tool is examined.

From hitting to tattling to gossip: an evolutionary rationale for the development of indirect aggression.

PubMed

Ingram, Gordon P D

2014-04-29

Adult humans are characterized by low rates of intra-group physical aggression. Since children tend to be more physically aggressive, an evolutionary developmental account shows promise for explaining how physical aggression is suppressed in adults. I argue that this is achieved partly through extended dominance hierarchies, based on indirect reciprocity and linguistic transmission of reputational information, mediated by indirectly aggressive competition. Reviewing the literature on indirect and related forms of aggression provides three pieces of evidence for the claim that evolutionarily old impulses towards physical aggression are socialized into indirect aggression in humans: (i) physical aggression falls in early childhood over the same age range at which indirect aggression increases; (ii) the same individuals engage in both direct and indirect aggression; and (iii) socially dominant individuals practice indirect aggression more frequently. Consideration of the developmental course of indirect aggression is complemented by analysis of similar developments in verbal behaviors that are not always thought of as aggressive, namely tattling and gossip. An important puzzle concerns why indirect aggression becomes more covert, and tattling more derogated, in preadolescence and adolescence. This may be due to the development of new strategies aimed at renegotiating social identity and friendship alliances in the peer group.

Consumptive use and resulting leach-field water budget of a mountain residence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stannard, David; Paul, William T.; Laws, Roy; Poeter, Eileen P.

2010-01-01

Consumptive use of water in a dispersed rural community has important implications for maximum housing density and its effects on sustainability of groundwater withdrawals. Recent rapid growth in Colorado, USA has stressed groundwater supplies in some areas, thereby increasing scrutiny of approximate methods developed there more than 30 years ago to estimate consumptive use that are still used today. A foothills residence was studied during a 2-year period to estimate direct and indirect water losses. Direct losses are those from evaporation inside the home, plus any outdoor use. Indirect loss is evapotranspiration (ET) from the residential leach-field in excess of ET from the immediately surrounding terrain. Direct losses were 18.7% of water supply to the home, substantially larger than estimated historically in Colorado. A new approach was developed to estimate indirect loss, using chamber methods together with the Penman–Monteith model. Indirect loss was only 0.9% of water supply, but this value probably was anomalously low due to a recurring leach-field malfunction. Resulting drainage beneath the leach-field was 80.4% of water supply. Guidelines are given to apply the same methodology at other sites and combine results with a survey of leach-fields in an area to obtain more realistic average values of ET losses.

Assessment of the ripple effects and spatial heterogeneity of total losses in the capital of China after a great catastrophic shock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhengtao; Li, Ning; Xie, Wei; Liu, Yu; Feng, Jieling; Chen, Xi; Liu, Li

2017-03-01

The total losses caused by natural disasters have spatial heterogeneity due to the different economic development levels inside the disaster-hit areas. This paper uses scenarios of direct economic loss to introduce the sectors' losses caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (2008 WCE) in Beijing, utilizing the Adaptive Regional Input-Output (ARIO) model and the Inter-regional ripple effect (IRRE) model. The purpose is to assess the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and spatial heterogeneity of both direct and indirect economic loss at the scale of the smallest administrative divisions of China (streets, villages, and towns). The results indicate that the district of Beijing with the most severe indirect economic loss is the Chaoyang District; the finance and insurance industry (15, see Table 1) of Chaowai Street suffers the most in the Chaoyang District, which is 1.46 times that of its direct economic loss. During 2008-2014, the average annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of Beijing was decreased 3.63 % by the catastrophe. Compared with the 8 % of GDP growth rate target, the decreasing GDP growth rate is a significant and noticeable economic impact, and it can be efficiently mitigated by increasing rescue effort and by supporting the industries which are located in the seriously damaged regions.

Biomass burning aerosol transport and vertical distribution over the South African-Atlantic region: Aerosol Transport Over SE Atlantic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Das, Sampa; Harshvardhan, H.; Bian, Huisheng

Aerosols from wild-land fires could significantly perturb the global radiation balance and induce the climate change. In this study, the Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5) with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate the spatial and seasonal characteristics of radiative forcings of wildfire aerosols including black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM). The global annual mean direct radiative forcing (DRF) of all fire aerosols is 0.15 W m-2, mainly due to the absorption of fire BC (0.25 W m-2), while fire POM induces a weak negative forcing (-0.05 W m-2). Strong positive DRF is found inmore » the Arctic and in the oceanic regions west of South Africa and South America as a result of amplified absorption of fire BC above low-level clouds, in general agreement with satellite observations. The global annual mean cloud radiative forcing due to all fire aerosols is -0.70 W m-2, resulting mainly from the fire POM indirect forcing (-0.59 W m-2). The large cloud liquid water path over land areas of the Arctic favors the strong fire aerosol indirect forcing (up to -15 W m-2) during the Arctic summer. Significant surface cooling, precipitation reduction and low-level cloud amount increase are also found in the Arctic summer as a result of the fire aerosol indirect effect. The global annual mean surface albedo forcing over land areas (0.03 W m-2) is mainly due to the fire BC-on-snow forcing (0.02 W m-2) with the maximum albedo forcing occurring in spring (0.12 W m-2) when snow starts to melt.« less

Consumers mediate the effects of experimental ocean acidification and warming on primary producers.

PubMed

Alsterberg, Christian; Eklöf, Johan S; Gamfeldt, Lars; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Sundbäck, Kristina

2013-05-21

It is well known that ocean acidification can have profound impacts on marine organisms. However, we know little about the direct and indirect effects of ocean acidification and also how these effects interact with other features of environmental change such as warming and declining consumer pressure. In this study, we tested whether the presence of consumers (invertebrate mesograzers) influenced the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming on benthic microalgae in a seagrass community mesocosm experiment. Net effects of acidification and warming on benthic microalgal biomass and production, as assessed by analysis of variance, were relatively weak regardless of grazer presence. However, partitioning these net effects into direct and indirect effects using structural equation modeling revealed several strong relationships. In the absence of grazers, benthic microalgae were negatively and indirectly affected by sediment-associated microalgal grazers and macroalgal shading, but directly and positively affected by acidification and warming. Combining indirect and direct effects yielded no or weak net effects. In the presence of grazers, almost all direct and indirect climate effects were nonsignificant. Our analyses highlight that (i) indirect effects of climate change may be at least as strong as direct effects, (ii) grazers are crucial in mediating these effects, and (iii) effects of ocean acidification may be apparent only through indirect effects and in combination with other variables (e.g., warming). These findings highlight the importance of experimental designs and statistical analyses that allow us to separate and quantify the direct and indirect effects of multiple climate variables on natural communities.

Global assessment of limitation to symbiotic nitrogen fixation by phosphorus availability in terrestrial ecosystems using a meta-analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augusto, Laurent; Delerue, Florian; Gallet-Budynek, Anne; Achat, David L.

2013-09-01

nitrogen fixation (SNF) is the main natural source of nitrogen (N) in terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Previous studies have shown that fixation of N by plants can be limited by the availability of phosphorus (P) in soils. We used global meta-analysis to investigate how P availability controls SNF. In experiments in which plants were grown in an artificial medium, severe P deficiencies in the nutritive solution ([PO4] < 5-42 μM) depressed SNF flux through both a direct decrease in the plant fixation rate (i.e., decreased N fixed per unit of plant biomass) and an indirect effect (i.e., through plant biomass). In most experiments with plants grown in soils, SNF was proportional to plant biomass and was consequently only indirectly limited by P. Some cases using unfertilized and weathered soils (ultisols or oxisols), where plants were particularly P stressed, were an exception with both direct and indirect P limitations. Our global analysis of the P-SNF relationship indicated that P bioavailability commonly limited SNF flux. We conclude that the main driver of in situ P limitation is indirect via limitation of plant growth, except in certain cases where both indirect and direct constraints may play a role. These cases of severe P deficiency may be mainly found in weathered tropical soils of Africa and South America, probably in unfertilized croplands which are depleted in P due to repeated biomass harvests.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE PAGES

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-10-27

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-11-01

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparison between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between -12% and +15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

Performance and Mix Measurements of Indirect Drive Cu-Doped Be Implosions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casey, D.  T.; Woods, D. T.; Smalyuk, V. A.

2015-05-19

The ablator couples energy between the driver and fusion fuel in inertial confinement fusion (ICF). Because of its low opacity, high solid density, and material properties, beryllium has long been considered an ideal ablator for ICF ignition experiments at the National Ignition Facility. We report here the first indirect drive Be implosions driven with shaped laser pulses and diagnosed with fusion yield at the OMEGA laser. The results show good performance with an average DD neutron yield of ~2 × 10⁹ at a convergence ratio of R₀/R ~ 10 and little impact due to the growth of hydrodynamic instabilities andmore » mix. In addition, the effect of adding an inner liner of W between the Be and DD is demonstrated.« less

Cruel intentions on television and in real life: can viewing indirect aggression increase viewers' subsequent indirect aggression?

PubMed

Coyne, Sarah M; Archer, John; Eslea, Mike

2004-07-01

Numerous studies have shown that viewing violence in the media can influence an individual's subsequent aggression, but none have examined the effect of viewing indirect aggression. This study examines the immediate effect of viewing indirect and direct aggression on subsequent indirect aggression among 199 children ages 11 to 14 years. They were shown an indirect, direct, or no-aggression video and their subsequent indirect aggression was measured by negative evaluation of a confederate and responses to a vignette. Participants viewing indirect or direct aggression gave a more negative evaluation of and less money to a confederate than participants viewing no-aggression. Participants viewing indirect aggression gave less money to the confederate than those viewing direct aggression. Participants viewing indirect aggression gave more indirectly aggressive responses to an ambiguous situation and participants viewing direct aggression gave more directly aggressive responses. This study provides the first evidence that viewing indirect aggression in the media can have an immediate impact on subsequent aggression.

Do competitors modulate rare plant response to precipitation change?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levine, J.M.; Kathryn, Mceachern A.; Cowan, C.

2010-01-01

Ecologists increasingly suspect that climate change will directly impact species physiology, demography, and phenology, but also indirectly affect these measures via changes to the surrounding community. Unfortunately, few studies examine both the direct and indirect pathways of impact. Doing so is important because altered competitive pressures can reduce or magnify the direct responses of a focal species to climate change. Here, we examine the effects of changing rainfall on three rare annual plant species in the presence and absence of competition on the California Channel Islands. We used rain-out shelters and hand watering to exclude and augment early, late, and season-long rainfall, spanning the wide range of precipitation change forecast for the region. In the absence of competition, droughts reduced the population growth rates of two of three focal annuals, while increased rainfall was only sometimes beneficial, As compared to the focal species, the dominant competitors were more sensitive to the precipitation treatments, benefiting from increased season-long precipitation and harmed by droughts. Importantly, the response of two of three competitors to the precipitation treatments tended to be positively correlated with those of the focal annuals. Although this leads to the expectation that increased competition will counter the direct benefits of favorable conditions, such indirect effects of precipitation change proved weak to nonexistent in our experiment. Competitors had little influence on the precipitation response of two focal species, due to their low sensitivity to competition and highly variable precipitation responses. Competition did affect how our third focal species responded to precipitation change, but this effect only approached significance, and whether it truly resulted from competitor response to precipitation change was unclear. Our work suggests that even when competitors respond to climate change, these responses may have little effect on the focal species. Ultimately, the strength of the indirect effect depends on how strongly climate change alters competition, and how sensitive focal species are to changes in competition. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Lost productivity due to premature mortality in developed and emerging countries: an application to smoking cessation.

PubMed

Menzin, Joseph; Marton, Jeno P; Menzin, Jordan A; Willke, Richard J; Woodward, Rebecca M; Federico, Victoria

2012-06-25

Researchers and policy makers have determined that accounting for productivity costs, or "indirect costs," may be as important as including direct medical expenditures when evaluating the societal value of health interventions. These costs are also important when estimating the global burden of disease. The estimation of indirect costs is commonly done on a country-specific basis. However, there are few studies that evaluate indirect costs across countries using a consistent methodology. Using the human capital approach, we developed a model that estimates productivity costs as the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE) lost due to premature mortality. Applying this methodology, the model estimates productivity costs for 29 selected countries, both developed and emerging. We also provide an illustration of how the inclusion of productivity costs contributes to an analysis of the societal burden of smoking. A sensitivity analysis is undertaken to assess productivity costs on the basis of the friction cost approach. PVLE estimates were higher for certain subpopulations, such as men, younger people, and people in developed countries. In the case study, productivity cost estimates from our model showed that productivity loss was a substantial share of the total cost burden of premature mortality due to smoking, accounting for over 75 % of total lifetime costs in the United States and 67 % of total lifetime costs in Brazil. Productivity costs were much lower using the friction cost approach among those of working age. Our PVLE model is a novel tool allowing researchers to incorporate the value of lost productivity due to premature mortality into economic analyses of treatments for diseases or health interventions. We provide PVLE estimates for a number of emerging and developed countries. Including productivity costs in a health economics study allows for a more comprehensive analysis, and, as demonstrated by our illustration, can have important effects on the results and conclusions.

Lost productivity due to premature mortality in developed and emerging countries: an application to smoking cessation

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Researchers and policy makers have determined that accounting for productivity costs, or “indirect costs,” may be as important as including direct medical expenditures when evaluating the societal value of health interventions. These costs are also important when estimating the global burden of disease. The estimation of indirect costs is commonly done on a country-specific basis. However, there are few studies that evaluate indirect costs across countries using a consistent methodology. Methods Using the human capital approach, we developed a model that estimates productivity costs as the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE) lost due to premature mortality. Applying this methodology, the model estimates productivity costs for 29 selected countries, both developed and emerging. We also provide an illustration of how the inclusion of productivity costs contributes to an analysis of the societal burden of smoking. A sensitivity analysis is undertaken to assess productivity costs on the basis of the friction cost approach. Results PVLE estimates were higher for certain subpopulations, such as men, younger people, and people in developed countries. In the case study, productivity cost estimates from our model showed that productivity loss was a substantial share of the total cost burden of premature mortality due to smoking, accounting for over 75 % of total lifetime costs in the United States and 67 % of total lifetime costs in Brazil. Productivity costs were much lower using the friction cost approach among those of working age. Conclusions Our PVLE model is a novel tool allowing researchers to incorporate the value of lost productivity due to premature mortality into economic analyses of treatments for diseases or health interventions. We provide PVLE estimates for a number of emerging and developed countries. Including productivity costs in a health economics study allows for a more comprehensive analysis, and, as demonstrated by our illustration, can have important effects on the results and conclusions. PMID:22731620

Linking dominant Hawaiian tree species to understory development in recovering pastures via impacts on soils and litter

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yelenik, Stephanie G.

2017-01-01

Large areas of tropical forest have been cleared and planted with exotic grass species for use as cattle pasture. These often remain persistent grasslands after grazer removal, which is problematic for restoring native forest communities. It is often hoped that remnant and/or planted trees can jump-start forest succession; however, there is little mechanistic information on how different canopy species affect community trajectories. To investigate this, I surveyed understory communities, exotic grass biomass, standing litter pools, and soil properties under two dominant canopy trees—Metrosideros polymorpha (‘ōhi‘a) and Acacia koa (koa)—in recovering Hawaiian forests. I then used structural equation models (SEMs) to elucidate direct and indirect effects of trees on native understory. Native understory communities developed under ‘ōhi‘a, which had larger standing litter pools, lower soil nitrogen, and lower exotic grass biomass than koa. This pattern was variable, potentially due to historical site differences and/or distance to intact forest. Koa, in contrast, showed little understory development. Instead, data suggest that increased soil nitrogen under koa leads to high grass biomass that stalls native recruitment. SEMs suggested that indirect effects of trees via litter and soils were as or more important than direct effects for determining native cover. It is suggested that diverse plantings which incorporate species that have high carbon to nitrogen ratios may help ameliorate the negative indirect effects of koa on natural understory regeneration.

A Global Modeling Study on Carbonaceous Aerosol Microphysical Characteristics and Radiative Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.; Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Tsigaridis, K.

2010-01-01

Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.

A global modeling study on carbonaceous aerosol microphysical characteristics and radiative effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, S. E.; Menon, S.; Koch, D.; Bond, T. C.; Tsigaridis, K.

2010-08-01

Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.

Incremental direct and indirect cost burden attributed to endometriosis surgeries in the United States.

PubMed

Soliman, Ahmed M; Taylor, Hugh S; Bonafede, Machaon; Nelson, James K; Castelli-Haley, Jane

2017-05-01

To compare direct and indirect costs between endometriosis patients who underwent endometriosis-related surgery (surgery cohort) and those who have not received surgery (no-surgery cohort). Retrospective cohort study. Not applicable. Endometriosis patients (aged 18-49 years) with (n = 124,530) or without (n = 37,106) a claim for endometriosis-related surgery were identified from the Truven Health MarketScan Commercial and Health and Productivity Management databases for 2006-2014. Not applicable. Primary outcomes were healthcare utilization during 12-month pre- and post-index periods, annual direct (healthcare) and indirect (absenteeism and short- and long-term disability) costs during the 12-month post-index period (in 2014 US dollars). Indirect costs were assessed for patients with available productivity data. Patients in the surgery cohort had significantly higher healthcare resource utilization during the post-index period and had mean annual total adjusted post-index direct costs approximately three times the costs among patients in the no-surgery cohort ($19,203 [SD $7,133] vs. $6,365 [SD $2,364]; average incremental annual direct cost = $12,838). The mean cost of surgery ($7,268 [SD $7,975]) was the single largest contributor to incremental annual direct cost. Mean estimated annual total indirect costs were $8,843 (surgery cohort) vs. $5,603 (no-surgery cohort); average incremental annual indirect cost = $3,240. Endometriosis patients who underwent surgery, compared with endometriosis patients who did not, incurred significantly higher direct costs due to healthcare utilization and indirect costs due to absenteeism or short-term disability. Regardless of the surgery type, the cost of index surgery contributed substantially to the total healthcare expenditure. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Re-Examination of Welfare States and Inequality in Rich Nations: How In-Kind Transfers and Indirect Taxes Change the Story

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garfinkel, Irwin; Rainwater, Lee; Smeeding, Timothy M.

2006-01-01

Previous studies find large cross-national differences in inequality amongst rich Western nations, due in large part to differences in the generosity of welfare state transfers. The United States is the least generous nation and the one having the most after-tax and transfer inequality. But these analyses are limited to the effects of cash and…

Tidal Modulation of Ice-shelf Flow: a Viscous Model of the Ross Ice Shelf

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brunt, Kelly M.; MacAyeal, Douglas R.

2014-01-01

Three stations near the calving front of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, recorded GPS data through a full spring-neap tidal cycle in November 2005. The data revealed a diurnal horizontal motion that varied both along and transverse to the long-term average velocity direction, similar to tidal signals observed in other ice shelves and ice streams. Based on its periodicity, it was hypothesized that the signal represents a flow response of the Ross Ice Shelf to the diurnal tides of the Ross Sea. To assess the influence of the tide on the ice-shelf motion, two hypotheses were developed. The first addressed the direct response of the ice shelf to tidal forcing, such as forces due to sea-surface slopes or forces due to sub-ice-shelf currents. The second involved the indirect response of ice-shelf flow to the tidal signals observed in the ice streams that source the ice shelf. A finite-element model, based on viscous creep flow, was developed to test these hypotheses, but succeeded only in falsifying both hypotheses, i.e. showing that direct tidal effects produce too small a response, and indirect tidal effects produce a response that is not smooth in time. This nullification suggests that a combination of viscous and elastic deformation is required to explain the observations.

Direct effects of tadalafil on lower urinary tract symptoms versus indirect effects mediated through erectile dysfunction symptom improvement: integrated data analyses from 4 placebo controlled clinical studies.

PubMed

Brock, Gerald B; McVary, Kevin T; Roehrborn, Claus G; Watts, Steven; Ni, Xiao; Viktrup, Lars; Wong, David G; Donatucci, Craig

2014-02-01

Tadalafil has regulatory approval for the treatment of men with signs/symptoms of benign prostatic hyperplasia with and without erectile dysfunction. We assessed whether the effects of treatment with tadalafil for lower urinary tract symptoms/benign prostatic hyperplasia are independent of improvements in erectile dysfunction. Four separate analyses used integrated data from 4 randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled studies in men with lower urinary tract symptoms/benign prostatic hyperplasia with and without erectile dysfunction to test whether total I-PSS (International Prostate Symptom Score) improvement was due to improvement in IIEF-EF (International Index of Erectile Function-Erectile Function domain score). Unidirectional and bidirectional path analysis models determined direct and indirect treatment effects mediated by improvements in lower urinary tract symptoms/benign prostatic hyperplasia and erectile dysfunction symptoms. A total of 1,496 men, of whom 77% had erectile dysfunction, received at least 1 dose of tadalafil 5 mg once daily or placebo. The placebo adjusted treatment effect for men with erectile dysfunction was represented by a mean decrease of -2.3 (p <0.0001) in total I-PSS vs -2.2 (p = 0.0007) for men without erectile dysfunction. The correlation between change from baseline in total I-PSS and IIEF-EF was weak (r(2) = 0.08, p <0.0001). The unidirectional path analysis model suggested that the total treatment effect on total I-PSS score improvement (2.25) was derived from a direct treatment effect of 1.57 (70%, p <0.001) and an indirect treatment effect of 0.67 (30% via IIEF-EF improvement, p <0.001). Bidirectional path analysis showed that total I-PSS improvement was largely attributed to direct (92.5%, p <0.001) vs indirect (7.5%, p = 0.32) treatment effects via IIEF-EF improvement. Regardless of the analytical approach, self-reported erectile dysfunction status did not appreciably influence tadalafil treatment response in men with lower urinary tract symptoms/benign prostatic hyperplasia, supporting the dual action of tadalafil on lower urinary tract symptoms/benign prostatic hyperplasia and erectile dysfunction. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Dynamic imperfections and optimized feedback design in the Compact Linear Collider main linac

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliasson, Peder

2008-05-01

The Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) main linac is sensitive to dynamic imperfections such as element jitter, injected beam jitter, and ground motion. These effects cause emittance growth that, in case of ground motion, has to be counteracted by a trajectory feedback system. The feedback system itself will, due to jitter effects and imperfect beam position monitors (BPMs), indirectly cause emittance growth. Fast and accurate simulations of both the direct and indirect effects are desirable, but due to the many elements of the CLIC main linac, simulations may become very time consuming. In this paper, an efficient way of simulating linear (or nearly linear) dynamic effects is described. The method is also shown to facilitate the analytic determination of emittance growth caused by the different dynamic imperfections while using a trajectory feedback system. Emittance growth expressions are derived for quadrupole, accelerating structure, and beam jitter, for ground motion, and for noise in the feedback BPMs. Finally, it is shown how the method can be used to design a feedback system that is optimized for the optics of the machine and the ground motion spectrum of the particular site. This feedback system gives an emittance growth rate that is approximately 10 times lower than that of traditional trajectory feedbacks. The robustness of the optimized feedback system is studied for a number of additional imperfections, e.g., dipole corrector imperfections and faulty knowledge about the machine optics, with promising results.

Assessment of aerosol indirect effects over Indian subcontinent using long term MODIS aerosol and cloud data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Saurabh; Maitra, Animesh; Saha, Upal; De, Arijit

Aerosols have direct consequences on climate research and in climate change study due to its role in radiative forcing. The modulation of cloud properties due to the presence of aerosol is another important factor in understanding of the climate change scenario. However, the relationship between these two is mostly indirect as the meteorological conditions have a strong impact on the relationship. Cloud effective radius and decreases in precipitation efficiency are interlinked with the increase of aerosols. The net effect is that the cloud liquid water path and cloud lifetime increase with AOD. Though these facts are included in the global climate models (GCM), the quantitative estimation of aerosol indirect efficiency (AIE) varied widely. Some recent studies indicate an increasing trend of the aerosol optical depth over the Indian landmass. The anthropogenic activities are linked with this increase in aerosols. In general, aerosol increase can affect the cloud radius and leads to formation of non-precipitating cloud. However, the chemical composition of aerosols may also be an important factor. It is therefore necessary to have better understanding of the relationship for predicting the future climate which may be affected by such human activities. In this paper, the relation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with cloud effective radius (CER) has been investigated over the Indian subcontinent using the long term MODIS observations. MODIS can able to provide reliable AOD information over the land surface. It also able to provide information of the cloud effective radius of the same observation point. A grid-wise correlation analysis can thus be performed to estimate the relation between AOD and CER. Result indicates both positive and negative AIE of AOD on CER. To identify the possible reason for such variability in the AIE, the role of anthropogenic aerosols and water vapor is investigated. The study on the efficiency of aerosol indirect effect indicates that a large number of grids with positive efficiency correspond to the water vapor amount of less than 2 mm whereas most of the grids have negative efficiency for water vapor amounts greater than 2 mm. Consequently, humidification of aerosols has also been examined for Indian region, which indicates that the variability in this relation may not be fully explained only by the contribution of water vapor. The role of aerosol sizes on this relation is also estimated by differentiating between fine mode and coarse mode aerosol. The presence of fine mode aerosols as estimated by model simulation and satellite observations show that the combined effect of water vapor and aerosol size can explain the observed positive and negative AIE more effectively. The results have important consequences on the GCM by incorporating the AIE more precisely.

The Potential Neural Mechanisms of Acute Indirect Vibration

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

There is strong evidence to suggest that acute indirect vibration acts on muscle to enhance force, power, flexibility, balance and proprioception suggesting neural enhancement. Nevertheless, the neural mechanism(s) of vibration and its potentiating effect have received little attention. One proposal suggests that spinal reflexes enhance muscle contraction through a reflex activity known as tonic vibration stretch reflex (TVR), which increases muscle activation. However, TVR is based on direct, brief, and high frequency vibration (>100 Hz) which differs to indirect vibration, which is applied to the whole body or body parts at lower vibration frequency (5-45 Hz). Likewise, muscle tuning and neuromuscular aspects are other candidate mechanisms used to explain the vibration phenomenon. But there is much debate in terms of identifying which neural mechanism(s) are responsible for acute vibration; due to a number of studies using various vibration testing protocols. These protocols include: different methods of application, vibration variables, training duration, exercise types and a range of population groups. Therefore, the neural mechanism of acute vibration remain equivocal, but spinal reflexes, muscle tuning and neuromuscular aspects are all viable factors that may contribute in different ways to increasing muscular performance. Additional research is encouraged to determine which neural mechanism(s) and their contributions are responsible for acute vibration. Testing variables and vibration applications need to be standardised before reaching a consensus on which neural mechanism(s) occur during and post-vibration. Key points There is strong evidence to suggest that acute indirect vibration acts on muscle to enhance force, power, flexibility, balance and proprioception, but little attention has been given to the neural mechanism(s) of acute indirect vibration. Current findings suggest that acute vibration exposure may cause a neural response, but there is little consensus on identifying which neural mechanism(s) are specifically responsible. This is due to a number of studies using various vibration testing protocols (i.e.varying frequencies, amplitudes, durations, and methods of application). Spinal reflexes, muscle tuning and neuromuscular aspects and central motor command are all viable neuromechanical factors that may contribute at different stages to transiently increasing muscular performance. Additional research is encouraged to determine when (pre, during and post) the different neural mechanism(s) respond to direct and indirect vibration stimuli. PMID:24149291

Simulation of the Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate Due to Aerosols by the Two-Way Coupled WRF-CMAQ over the Eastern United States

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, the shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) and longwave cloud forcing (LWCF) are estimated with the newly developed two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ over the eastern United States. Preliminary indirect aerosol forcing has been successfully implemented in WRF-CMAQ. The comparisons...

77 FR 24709 - Information Collections Being Reviewed by the Federal Communications Commission Under Delegated...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-25

... direct method of power determination due to technical reasons, the indirect method of determining antenna... antenna input power by the indirect method must determine the value F (efficiency factor) applicable to... antenna system field monitoring point, when the point itself is not changed. (2) A change in the type of...

Nitrous oxide and nitrate concentration in under-drainage from arable fields subject to diffuse pollution mitigation measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hama-Aziz, Zanist; Hiscock, Kevin; Adams, Christopher; Reid, Brian

2016-04-01

Atmospheric nitrous oxide concentrations are increasing by 0.3% annually and a major source of this greenhouse gas is agriculture. Indirect emissions of nitrous oxide (e.g. from groundwater and surface water) account for about quarter of total nitrous oxide emissions. However, these indirect emissions are subject to uncertainty, mainly due to the range in reported emission factors. It's hypothesised in this study that cover cropping and implementing reduced (direct drill) cultivation in intensive arable systems will reduce dissolved nitrate concentration and subsequently indirect nitrous oxide emissions. To test the hypothesis, seven fields with a total area of 102 ha in the Wensum catchment in eastern England have been chosen for experimentation together with two fields (41 ha) under conventional cultivation (deep inversion ploughing) for comparison. Water samples from field under-drainage have been collected for nitrate and nitrous oxide measurement on a weekly basis from April 2013 for two years from both cultivation areas. A purge and trap preparation line connected to a Shimadzu GC-8A gas chromatograph fitted with an electron capture detector was used for dissolved nitrous oxide analysis. Results revealed that with an oilseed radish cover crop present, the mean concentration of nitrate, which is the predominant form of N, was significantly depleted from 13.9 mg N L-1 to 2.5 mg N L-1. However, slightly higher mean nitrous oxide concentrations under the cover crop of 2.61 μg N L-1 compared to bare fields of 2.23 μg N L-1 were observed. Different inversion intensity of soil tended to have no effect on nitrous oxide and nitrate concentrations. The predominant production mechanism for nitrous oxide was nitrification process and the significant reduction of nitrate was due to plant uptake rather than denitrification. It is concluded that although cover cropping might cause a slight increase of indirect nitrous oxide emission, it can be a highly effective mitigation measure in an agricultural area where high nitrate losses from fields into groundwater or surface water is excessively occurring.

Complexity in African savannas: Direct, indirect, and cascading effects of animal densities, rainfall and vegetation availability

PubMed Central

Leeuwis, Tim; Peel, Mike

2018-01-01

Savanna ecosystems are popular subjects for interaction studies. Multiple studies have been done on the impact of elephants on vegetation, the impact of grass and browse availability on animal densities or on competition between herbivore species. Previous studies showed that elephant densities are frequently negatively correlated with densities of tall trees, and that browse and grass availability are correlated with browser and grazer density respectively. Additionally, a competition effect between browse and grass availability has been reported. These relationships are usually analysed by testing direct relationships between e.g., herbivore densities and food availability, without addressing competition effects or other indirect effects. In this study, multiple interactions in a savanna system have been analysed simultaneously using Partial Least Square-Path Modelling (PLS-PM) using mammal and vegetation data from three different wildlife reserves in southern KwaZulu-Natal. The results showed that the processes that three separate models for the three areas provided the best understanding of the importance of the different interactions. These models suggest that elephants had a negative impact on trees, but also on grass availability. The impact is stronger when elephants are not able to migrate during the dry season. Browsers and grazers were correlated with browse and grass availability, but competition between browse and grass was not detected. This study shows that due to the complexity of the interactions in an ecosystem and differences in environmental factors, these interactions are best studied per area. PLS-PM can be a useful tool for estimating direct, indirect, and cascading effects of changing animal densities in conservation areas. PMID:29768481

Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global numerical weather prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulcahy, J. P.; Walters, D. N.; Bellouin, N.; Milton, S. F.

2014-05-01

The inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high-resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three-dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing long-wave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propagate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high-latitude clean-air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short-range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low-level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a more realistic treatment of aerosol-cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global NWP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulcahy, J. P.; Walters, D. N.; Bellouin, N.; Milton, S. F.

2013-11-01

Inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing longwave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propogate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high latitude clean air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a~more realistic treatment of aerosol-cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

Perceptions of physical and social environment variables and self-efficacy as correlates of self-reported physical activity among adolescent girls.

PubMed

Motl, Robert W; Dishman, Rod K; Saunders, Ruth P; Dowda, Marsha; Pate, Russell R

2007-01-01

This cross-sectional study examined the direct and indirect effects of perceived equipment accessibility, neighborhood safety, and social support on self-reported physical activity among older adolescent girls. Adolescent girls (n = 1,655) who were in the 12th grade completed a battery of questionnaires that included self-report measures of the perceived physical environment, social support, barriers self-efficacy, and physical activity. Perceived neighborhood safety did not exhibit direct or indirect effects on self-reported physical activity. Perceived equipment accessibility exhibited an indirect effect on self-reported physical activity that was accounted for by barriers self-efficacy. Perceived social support exhibited direct and indirect effects on self-reported physical activity; the indirect effect was accounted for by barriers self-efficacy. The relationships were independent of parental education and body mass index (BMI). Perceived physical environmental factors indirectly influenced self-reported physical activity, and perceived social environmental factors both directly and indirectly influenced self-reported physical activity in this sample of older adolescent girls.

[Euthanasia and the doctrine of double effect].

PubMed

Klein, Martin

2005-01-01

Direct active euthanasia is prohibited in most countries while passive and indirect is not. However, many arguments against the legalization of voluntary active euthanasia are flawed. Ethical differences between active and passive or indirect euthanasia are difficult to maintain especially when the passivity of the actor causes death. The crucial point is not activity or passivity but respect for the autonomy of individual human beings. In particular there appears to be little ethical difference between active and indirect euthanasia. Indirect euthanasia has often been justified by the principle of double effect, which traces back to Thomas Aquinas. But resorting to this rule contains a logical fallacy. The principle of double effect does not allow foreseen and unwanted adverse effects of an action to occur when they are avoidable. In terminal sedation, an example for indirect euthanasia, hypoxemia and dehydration can easily be prevented by respirator therapy and fluid administration. Therefore the rule of double effect is not applicable. Indirect and direct active euthanasia cannot be ethically distinguished by resorting to the principle of double effect.

Cost effectiveness of adding 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate (PCV-7) vaccine to the Norwegian childhood vaccination program.

PubMed

Wisløff, Torbjørn; Abrahamsen, Tore G; Bergsaker, Marianne A Riise; Løvoll, Øistein; Møller, Per; Pedersen, Maren Kristine; Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø

2006-07-17

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a frequent bacterial cause of serious infections that may cause permanent sequelae and death. A 7-valent conjugate vaccine may reduce the incidence of pneumococcal disease, but some previous studies have questioned the cost-effectiveness of the vaccine. The aim of this study was to estimate costs and health consequences of adding this pneumococcal vaccine to the Norwegian childhood vaccination programme, taking the possibility of herd immunity into account. We developed a simulation model (Markov-model) using data on the risk of pneumococcal disease in Norway, the efficacy of the vaccine as observed in clinical trials from other countries and adjusted for serotype differences, the cost of the vaccine and quality of life for patients with sequelae from pneumococcal disease. The results were expressed as incremental (additional) costs (in euros; euro1.00 approximately NOK8.37), incremental life years and incremental quality adjusted life years. Four different sets of main results are presented: costs and (quality adjusted) life years, with and without indirect costs (the value of lost production due to work absenteeism) and with and without potential herd immunity (i.e. childhood vaccination protects adults against pneumococcal disease). When indirect costs were disregarded, and four vaccine doses used, the incremental cost per life year gained was euro153,000 when herd immunity was included, and euro311,000 when it was not. When accounting for indirect costs as well, the cost per life year gained was euro58,000 and euro124,000, respectively. Assuming that three vaccine doses provide the same protection as four, the cost per life year gained with this regimen was euro90,000 with herd immunity and euro184,000 without (when indirect costs are disregarded). If indirect costs are also included, vaccination both saves costs and gains life years. In Norway, governmental guidelines indicate that only interventions with cost per life year of less than euro54,000 should be implemented. This implies that four dose vaccination is not cost-effective even if decision makers includes both herd immunity and indirect costs in their decisions. If three doses offer the same protection as four doses, however, vaccination would be cost-saving when indirect costs are included, but not with only herd immunity. In the autumn of 2005, the Norwegian Government decided to include PCV-7 in the vaccination program. This analysis was used by the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Finance during the decision process.

Effect of joint spacing and joint dip on the stress distribution around tunnels using different numerical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikadat, Nooraddin; Fatehi Marji, Mohammad; Rahmannejad, Reza; Yarahmadi Bafghi, Alireza

2016-11-01

Different conditions may affect the stability of tunnels by the geometry (spacing and orientation) of joints in the surrounded rock mass. In this study, by comparing the results obtained by the three novel numerical methods i.e. finite element method (Phase2), discrete element method (UDEC) and indirect boundary element method (TFSDDM), the effects of joint spacing and joint dips on the stress distribution around rock tunnels are numerically studied. These comparisons indicate the validity of the stress analyses around circular rock tunnels. These analyses also reveal that for a semi-continuous environment, boundary element method gives more accurate results compared to the results of finite element and distinct element methods. In the indirect boundary element method, the displacements due to joints of different spacing and dips are estimated by using displacement discontinuity (DD) formulations and the total stress distribution around the tunnel are obtained by using fictitious stress (FS) formulations.

Direct and indirect effects of metal contamination on soil biota in a Zn-Pb post-mining and smelting area (S Poland).

PubMed

Kapusta, Paweł; Szarek-Łukaszewska, Grażyna; Stefanowicz, Anna M

2011-06-01

Effects of metal contamination on soil biota activity were investigated at 43 sites in 5 different habitats (defined by substratum and vegetation type) in a post-mining area. Sites were characterised in terms of soil pH and texture, nutrient status, total and exchangeable metal concentrations, as well as plant species richness and cover, abundances of enchytraeids, nematodes and tardigrades, and microbial respiration and biomass. The concentrations of total trace metals were highest in soils developed on mining waste (metal-rich dolomite), but these habitats were more attractive than sandy sites for plants and soil biota because of their higher content of organic matter, clay and nutrients. Soil mesofauna and microbes were strongly dependent on natural habitat properties. Pollution (exchangeable Zn and Cd) negatively affected only enchytraeid density; due to a positive relationship between enchytraeids and microbes it indirectly reduced microbial activity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indirect chemical effects of methane on climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelieveld, Jos; Crutzen, Paul J.

1992-01-01

METHANE concentrations in the atmosphere have increased from about 0.75 to 1.7 p.p.m.v. since pre-industrial times1,2. The current annual rate of increase of about 0.8% yr-1 (ref. 2) is due to increases in industrial and agricultural emissions. This increase in atmospheric methane concentrations not only influences the climate directly, but also indirectly through chemical reactions. Here we show that the climate effects of methane's atmospheric chemistry have previously been overestimated, notably by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)3, largely owing to neglect of the height dependence of certain atmospheric radiative processes. Using available estimates of fossil-fuel-related leaks of methane, our results show that switching from coal and oil to natural gas as an energy source would reduce climate warming. A significant fraction of methane emissions cannot, however, be accounted for by known sources; should leakages from gas production and distribution be underestimated for some countries, then it might be unwise to switch to using natural gas.

Drought-induced starvation of aardvarks in the Kalahari: an indirect effect of climate change.

PubMed

Rey, Benjamin; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan; Meyer, Leith C R; Hetem, Robyn S

2017-07-01

Aardvarks ( Orycteropus afer ) are elusive burrowing mammals, predominantly nocturnal and distributed widely throughout Africa except for arid deserts. Their survival may be threatened by climate change via direct and indirect effects of increasing heat and aridity. To measure their current physiological plasticity, we implanted biologgers into six adult aardvarks resident in the semi-arid Kalahari. Following a particularly dry and hot summer, five of the study aardvarks and 11 other aardvarks at the study site died. Body temperature records revealed homeothermy (35.4-37.2°C) initially, but heterothermy increased progressively through the summer, with declining troughs in the nychthemeral rhythm of body temperature reaching as low as 25°C before death, likely due to starvation. Activity patterns shifted from the normal nocturnal to a diurnal mode. Our results do not bode well for the future of aardvarks facing climate change. Extirpation of aardvarks, which play a key role as ecosystem engineers, may disrupt stability of African ecosystems. © 2017 The Author(s).

TiO2 nanoparticles in the marine environment: impact on the toxicity of tributyltin to abalone (Haliotis diversicolor supertexta) embryos.

PubMed

Zhu, Xiaoshan; Zhou, Jin; Cai, Zhonghua

2011-04-15

Little information is available on the potential ecotoxicity of manufactured nanomaterials (MNMs) in the marine environment. To carefully address this issue, the toxicity of nanosized titanium dioxide (nTiO(2)) aggregates in the marine environment was evaluated using abalone (Haliotis diversicolor supertexta) embryonic development as a model. The effect of nTiO(2) aggregates on the toxicity of the highly toxic marine antifouling compound tributyltin (TBT) to abalone embryos was also investigated. No developmental effects of nTiO(2) were observed at 2 mg/L but concentrations ≥10 mg/L caused hatching inhibition and malformations. The presence of 2 mg/L nTiO(2) increased the toxicity of TBT up to 20-fold compared with TBT alone. This enhancement of TBT may be due to the combined effects of TBT adsorption onto nTiO(2) aggregates and the internalization of nTiO(2) aggregates by abalone embryos. These observations indicate that MNMs may have important indirect impacts on aquatic organisms by varying the toxicity of coexisting pollutants. Thus, risk assessments for MNMs should consider both their direct effects and possible indirect effects of interactions with other environmental contaminants.

Interaction effects between sender and receiver processes in indirect transmission of Campylobacter jejuni between broilers

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Infectious diseases in plants, animals and humans are often transmitted indirectly between hosts (or between groups of hosts), i.e. via some route through the environment instead of via direct contacts between these hosts. Here we study indirect transmission experimentally, using transmission of Campylobacter jejuni (C. jejuni) between spatially separated broilers as a model system. We distinguish three stages in the process of indirect transmission; (1) an infectious “sender” excretes the agent, after which (2) the agent is transported via some route to a susceptible “receiver”, and subsequently (3) the receiver becomes colonised by the agent. The role of the sender and receiver side (stage 1 and stage 3) was studied here by using acidification of the drinking water as a modulation mechanism. Results In the experiment one control group and three treatment groups were monitored for the presence of C. jejuni by taking daily cloacal swabs. The three treatments consisted of acidification of the drinking water of the inoculated animals (the senders), acidification of the drinking water of the susceptible animals (the receivers) or acidification of the drinking water of both inoculated and susceptible animals. In the control group 12 animals got colonised out of a possible 40, in each treatment groups 3 animals out of a possible 40 were found colonised with C. jejuni. Conclusions The results of the experiments show a significant decrease in transmission rate (β) between the control groups and treatment groups (p < 0.01 for all groups) but not between different treatments; there is a significant negative interaction effect when both the sender and the receiver group receive acidified drinking water (p = 0.01). This negative interaction effect could be due to selection of bacteria already at the sender side thereby diminishing the effect of acidification at the receiver side. PMID:22831274

A meta-analysis of the response of soil respiration, net nitrogen mineralization, and aboveground plant growth to experimental ecosystem warming

Treesearch

L.E. Rustad; J.L. Campbell; G.M. Marion; R.J. Norby; M.J. Mitchell; A.E. Hartley; J.H.C. Cornelissen; J. Gurevitch

2001-01-01

Climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions is predicted to raise the mean global temperature by 1.0-3.5°C in the next 50-100 years. The direct and indirect effects of this potential increase in temperature on terrestrial ecosystems and ecosystem processes are likely to be complex and highly varied in time and space. The Global Change and Terrestrial...

Carbon dioxide emission implications if hydrofluorocarbons are regulated: a refrigeration case study.

PubMed

Blowers, Paul; Lownsbury, James M

2010-03-01

The U.S. is strongly considering regulating hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) due to their global climate change forcing effects. A drop-in replacement hydrofluoroether has been evaluated using a gate-to-grave life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions for the trade-offs between direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent emissions compared to a current HFC and a historically used refrigerant. The results indicate current regulations being considered may increase global climate change.

Unpacking Direct and Indirect Relationships of Short-Term Memory to Word Reading: Evidence From Korean-Speaking Children.

PubMed

Kim, Young-Suk Grace; Cho, Jeung-Ryeul; Park, Soon-Gil

2017-08-01

We examined the relations of short-term memory (STM), metalinguistic awareness (phonological, morphological, and orthographic awareness), and rapid automatized naming (RAN) to word reading in Korean, a language with a relatively transparent orthography. STM, metalinguistic awareness, and RAN have been shown to be important to word reading, but the nature of the relations of STM, metalinguistic awareness, and RAN to word reading has rarely been investigated. Two alternative models were fitted. In the indirect relation model, STM was hypothesized to be indirectly related to word reading via metalinguistic awareness and RAN. In the direct and indirect relations model, STM was hypothesized to be directly and indirectly related to word reading. Results from 207 beginning readers in South Korea showed that STM was directly related to word reading as well as indirectly via metalinguistic awareness and RAN. Although the direct effect of STM was relatively small (.16), the total effect incorporating the indirect effect was substantial (.42). These results suggest that STM is an important, foundational cognitive capacity that underpins metalinguistic awareness and RAN as well as word reading, and further indicate the importance of considering both direct and indirect effects of language and cognitive skills on word reading.

Assessing Mediational Models: Testing and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biesanz, Jeremy C.; Falk, Carl F.; Savalei, Victoria

2010-01-01

Theoretical models specifying indirect or mediated effects are common in the social sciences. An indirect effect exists when an independent variable's influence on the dependent variable is mediated through an intervening variable. Classic approaches to assessing such mediational hypotheses (Baron & Kenny, 1986; Sobel, 1982) have in recent years…

Acousto-exciton interaction in a gas of 2D indirect dipolar excitons in the presence of disorder

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kovalev, V. M.; Chaplik, A. V., E-mail: chaplik@isp.nsc.ru

2016-03-15

A theory for the linear and quadratic responses of a 2D gas of indirect dipolar excitons to an external surface acoustic wave perturbation in the presence of a static random potential is considered. The theory is constructed both for high temperatures, definitely greater than the exciton gas condensation temperature, and at zero temperature by taking into account the Bose–Einstein condensation effects. The particle Green functions, the density–density correlation function, and the quadratic response function are calculated by the “cross” diagram technique. The results obtained are used to calculate the absorption of Rayleigh surface waves and the acoustic exciton gas dragmore » by a Rayleigh wave. The damping of Bogoliubov excitations in an exciton condensate due to theirs scattering by a random potential has also been determined.« less

Comparing Indirect Effects in SEM: A Sequential Model Fitting Method Using Covariance-Equivalent Specifications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chan, Wai

2007-01-01

In social science research, an indirect effect occurs when the influence of an antecedent variable on the effect variable is mediated by an intervening variable. To compare indirect effects within a sample or across different samples, structural equation modeling (SEM) can be used if the computer program supports model fitting with nonlinear…

Treatment costs and indirect costs of cluster headache: A health economics analysis.

PubMed

Gaul, Charly; Finken, Julia; Biermann, Janine; Mostardt, Sarah; Diener, Hans-Christoph; Müller, Oliver; Wasem, Jürgen; Neumann, Anja

2011-12-01

Cluster headache (CH) is the most frequent trigemino-autonomic cephalgia. CH can manifest as episodic (eCH) or chronic cluster headache (cCH) causing significant burden of disease and requiring attack therapy and prophylactic treatment. Treatment costs (direct costs) due to healthcare utilisation, as well as costs caused by disability and reduction in earning capacity (indirect costs), were obtained using a questionnaire in CH patients treated in a tertiary headache centre based at the University Duisburg-Essen over a 6-month period. A total 179 patients (72 cCH, 107 eCH) were included. Mean attack frequency was 3.5 ± 2.5 per day. Mean direct and indirect costs for one person were €5963 in the 6-month period. Direct costs were positively correlated with attack frequency (r = 0.467, p < 0.001). Burden of disease measured with HIT-6 showed a significant correlation with attack frequency (r = 0.467, p < 0.001). Twenty-four (13.4%) of the participants were disabled and not able to work. CH leads to major socioeconomic impact on patients as well as society due to direct healthcare costs and indirect costs caused by loss of working capacity.

Ecological restructuring in experimental aquatic mesocosms due to the application of diflubenzuron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyle, Terence P.; Fairchild, James F.; Haverland, Pamela S.; Lebo, Jon A.; Robinson-Wilson, Everett

1996-01-01

Diflubenzuron is a chitin-inhibiting insecticide that is registered for use in controlling a multitude of invertebrate pests. The selective mode of action of diflubenzuron provided us with a unique tool for examining the indirect responses of an experimental aquatic ecosystem following direct impacts at the primary consumer (invertebrate) trophic level. Twelve outdoor aquatic mesocosms (0.1 ha each) were randomly assigned to three treatments of diflubenzuron (four mesocosms/treatment): control, monthly (five total 10-μg/L applications), or biweekly (twice monthly; nine total 10-μg/L applications). Direct impacts on invertebrates (numbers and species composition of insects and zooplankton) and indirect impacts on fish (mortality, growth, and reproduction of bluegill sunfish and largemouth bass), phytoplankton (biomass and productivity), and water quality were measured over 16 weeks posttreatment. Both monthly and biweekly treatments of diflubenzuron decreased total numbers (fivefold reduction) and species richness (twofold reduction) and increased dominance (twofold increase) of zooplankton within 4 weeks posttreatment; Cladocerans, Copepods, and Rotifers were all sensitive. Diflubenzuron reduced species richness of emergent insects, which resulted in increased dominance by a few species; however, impacts on emergent insects were confounded by a treatment × time interaction. Direct reductions in invertebrate grazers caused indirect increases in algal biomass. Indirect effects on biomass (50% reduction) and individual weight (50% reduction) of juvenile bluegill occurred because of apparent decreases in invertebrate food resources. No statistically significant impacts were observed on adult bluegill or largemouth bass for the duration of the experiment. Results indicated that diflubenzuron had both direct and indirect impacts on the experimental aquatic ecosystems under the conditions tested.

Long-term prosthetic aftercare of direct vs. indirect attachment incorporation techniques to mandibular implant-supported overdenture.

PubMed

Nissan, Joseph; Oz-Ari, Beni; Gross, Ora; Ghelfan, Oded; Chaushu, Gavriel

2011-06-01

The aim of this long-term study was to compare the need for prosthetic aftercare of direct vs. indirect attachment incorporation techniques to mandibular implant-supported overdenture. Forty-five consecutive patients were included (130 implants were placed). Treatment was randomly allocated, resulting in 22 patients (group A) to be treated with direct ball attachment incorporation and 23 patients (group B) to be treated with indirect ball attachment incorporation. All patients were treated by experienced oral-maxillofacial surgeons/periodontists and experienced prosthodontists/residents. From the first day that the patients visited the clinic up to 20 years after the first treatment session, all surgical or prosthetic therapeutic interventions were recorded. The recorded data for the present study included the number of aftercare visits and dental treatment received (pressure sores relieve, liner changes due to loss of retention and attachment replacement due to wear). The mean follow-up was 93±57 months. No implants were lost. Statistical analysis revealed a statistically significantly (P<0.001) greater need for prosthetic interventions in group B vs. group A. The mean number of visits dedicated to - pressure sores relieve (7.04±1.4 vs. 3.63±0.84); liner exchange due to loss of retention (3.6±1.3 vs. 1.09±1.06) was significantly higher in group B. Attachment replacement due to wear occurred only in group B (11/23 - 47.8%). The direct technique for attachment incorporation in mandibular implant-supported overdentures using ball attachments is superior to the indirect technique from the aftercare perspective during a long-term evaluation period. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Suicidal Behavior: Indirect Effects of Impaired Social Functioning.

PubMed

Dutton, Courtney E; Rojas, Sasha M; Badour, Christal L; Wanklyn, Sonya G; Feldner, Matthew T

2016-01-01

Social functioning is negatively impacted by the presence of PTSD, while increasing risk of suicidal behavior among individuals with PTSD. However, little research has examined the specific role of social functioning in the association between PTSD and suicidal behavior. Parallel multiple indirect effects analyses were performed to understand the unique indirect effects of four aspects of social functioning. Indirect effects of PTSD on suicidal ideation were significant through three pathways: interpersonal conflict, perceived family support, and interpersonal apprehension. Perceived family support was the only indirect pathway significantly associated with suicide attempt. Findings suggest that social functioning should be assessed and potentially targeted during treatment to help modify the risk for suicidal behavior among individuals with PTSD.

Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation.

PubMed

Scott, C E; Monks, S A; Spracklen, D V; Arnold, S R; Forster, P M; Rap, A; Äijälä, M; Artaxo, P; Carslaw, K S; Chipperfield, M P; Ehn, M; Gilardoni, S; Heikkinen, L; Kulmala, M; Petäjä, T; Reddington, C L S; Rizzo, L V; Swietlicki, E; Vignati, E; Wilson, C

2018-01-11

The climate impact of deforestation depends on the relative strength of several biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. In addition to affecting the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and moisture with the atmosphere and surface albedo, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) that alter the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol, ozone and methane. Here we show that a scenario of complete global deforestation results in a net positive radiative forcing (RF; 0.12 W m -2 ) from SLCFs, with the negative RF from decreases in ozone and methane concentrations partially offsetting the positive aerosol RF. Combining RFs due to CO 2 , surface albedo and SLCFs suggests that global deforestation could cause 0.8 K warming after 100 years, with SLCFs contributing 8% of the effect. However, deforestation as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario leads to zero net RF from SLCF, primarily due to nonlinearities in the aerosol indirect effect.

Interlayer excitons in MoSe2/WSe2 heterostructures from first principles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillen, Roland; Maultzsch, Janina

2018-04-01

Based on ab initio theoretical calculations of the optical spectra of vertical heterostructures of MoSe2 (or MoS2) and WSe2 sheets, we reveal two spin-orbit-split Rydberg series of excitonic states below the A excitons of MoSe2 and WSe2 with a significant binding energy on the order of 250 meV for the first excitons in the series. At the same time, we predict from accurate many-body G0W0 calculations that crystallographically aligned MoSe2/WSe2 heterostructures exhibit an indirect fundamental band gap. Due to the type-II nature of the MoSe2/WSe2 heterostructure, the indirect transition and the exciton Rydberg series corresponding to a direct transition exhibit a distinct interlayer nature with spatial charge separation of the coupled electrons and holes. Our calculations confirm the recent experimental observation of a doublet nature of the long-lived states in photoluminescence spectra of Mo X2/W Y2 heterostructures, and we attribute these two contributions to momentum-direct interlayer excitons at the K point of the hexagonal Brillouin zone and to momentum-indirect excitons at the indirect fundamental band gap. Our calculations further suggest a noticeable effect of stacking order on the electronic band gaps and on the peak energies of the interlayer excitons and their oscillation strengths.

Aging Enhances Indirect Flight Muscle Fiber Performance yet Decreases Flight Ability in Drosophila

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Mark S.; Lekkas, Panagiotis; Braddock, Joan M.

2008-10-02

We investigated the effects of aging on Drosophila melanogaster indirect flight muscle from the whole organism to the actomyosin cross-bridge. Median-aged (49-day-old) flies were flight impaired, had normal myofilament number and packing, barely longer sarcomeres, and slight mitochondrial deterioration compared with young (3-day-old) flies. Old (56-day-old) flies were unable to beat their wings, had deteriorated ultrastructure with severe mitochondrial damage, and their skinned fibers failed to activate with calcium. Small-amplitude sinusoidal length perturbation analysis showed median-aged indirect flight muscle fibers developed greater than twice the isometric force and power output of young fibers, yet cross-bridge kinetics were similar. Large increasesmore » in elastic and viscous moduli amplitude under active, passive, and rigor conditions suggest that median-aged fibers become stiffer longitudinally. Small-angle x-ray diffraction indicates that myosin heads move increasingly toward the thin filament with age, accounting for the increased transverse stiffness via cross-bridge formation. We propose that the observed protein composition changes in the connecting filaments, which anchor the thick filaments to the Z-disk, produce compensatory increases in longitudinal stiffness, isometric tension, power and actomyosin interaction in aging indirect flight muscle. We also speculate that a lack of MgATP due to damaged mitochondria accounts for the decreased flight performance.« less

Intercellular Communication of Tumor Cells and Immune Cells after Exposure to Different Ionizing Radiation Qualities.

PubMed

Diegeler, Sebastian; Hellweg, Christine E

2017-01-01

Ionizing radiation can affect the immune system in many ways. Depending on the situation, the whole body or parts of the body can be acutely or chronically exposed to different radiation qualities. In tumor radiotherapy, a fractionated exposure of the tumor (and surrounding tissues) is applied to kill the tumor cells. Currently, mostly photons, and also electrons, neutrons, protons, and heavier particles such as carbon ions, are used in radiotherapy. Tumor elimination can be supported by an effective immune response. In recent years, much progress has been achieved in the understanding of basic interactions between the irradiated tumor and the immune system. Here, direct and indirect effects of radiation on immune cells have to be considered. Lymphocytes for example are known to be highly radiosensitive. One important factor in indirect interactions is the radiation-induced bystander effect which can be initiated in unexposed cells by expression of cytokines of the irradiated cells and by direct exchange of molecules via gap junctions. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge about the indirect effects observed after exposure to different radiation qualities. The different immune cell populations important for the tumor immune response are natural killer cells, dendritic cells, and CD8+ cytotoxic T-cells. In vitro and in vivo studies have revealed the modulation of their functions due to ionizing radiation exposure of tumor cells. After radiation exposure, cytokines are produced by exposed tumor and immune cells and a modulated expression profile has also been observed in bystander immune cells. Release of damage-associated molecular patterns by irradiated tumor cells is another factor in immune activation. In conclusion, both immune-activating and -suppressing effects can occur. Enhancing or inhibiting these effects, respectively, could contribute to modified tumor cell killing after radiotherapy.

Assessing simulated summer 10-m wind speed over China: influencing processes and sensitivities to land surface schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Xin-Min; Wang, Ming; Wang, Ning; Yi, Xiang; Chen, Chaohui; Zhou, Zugang; Wang, Guiling; Zheng, Yiqun

2018-06-01

We assessed the sensitivity of 10-m wind speed to land surface schemes (LSSs) and the processes affecting wind speed in China during the summer of 2003 using the ARWv3 mesoscale model. The derived hydrodynamic equation, which directly reflects the effects of the processes that drive changes in the full wind speed, shows that the convection term CON (the advection effect) plays the smallest role; thus, the summer 10-m wind speed is largely dominated by the pressure gradient (PRE) and the diffusion (DFN) terms, and the equation shows that both terms are highly sensitive to the choice of LSS within the studied subareas (i.e., Northwest China, East China, and the Tibetan Plateau). For example, Northwest China had the largest DFN, with a PRE four times that of CON and the highest sensitivity of PRE to the choice of LSS, as indicated by a difference index value of 63%. Moreover, we suggest that two types of mechanisms, direct and indirect effects, affect the 10-m wind speed. Through their simulated surface fluxes (mainly the sensible heat flux), the different LSSs directly provide different amounts of heat to the surface air at local scales, which influences atmospheric stratification and the characteristics of downward momentum transport. Meanwhile, through the indirect effect, the LSS-induced changes in surface fluxes can significantly modify the distributions of the temperature and pressure fields in the lower atmosphere over larger scales. These changes alter the thermal and geostrophic winds, respectively, as well as the 10-m wind speed. Due to the differences in land properties and climates, the indirect effect (e.g., PRE) can be greater than the direct effect (e.g., DFN).

Global Economic Impact of Dental Diseases.

PubMed

Listl, S; Galloway, J; Mossey, P A; Marcenes, W

2015-10-01

Reporting the economic burden of oral diseases is important to evaluate the societal relevance of preventing and addressing oral diseases. In addition to treatment costs, there are indirect costs to consider, mainly in terms of productivity losses due to absenteeism from work. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the direct and indirect costs of dental diseases worldwide to approximate the global economic impact. Estimation of direct treatment costs was based on a systematic approach. For estimation of indirect costs, an approach suggested by the World Health Organization's Commission on Macroeconomics and Health was employed, which factored in 2010 values of gross domestic product per capita as provided by the International Monetary Fund and oral burden of disease estimates from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study. Direct treatment costs due to dental diseases worldwide were estimated at US$298 billion yearly, corresponding to an average of 4.6% of global health expenditure. Indirect costs due to dental diseases worldwide amounted to US$144 billion yearly, corresponding to economic losses within the range of the 10 most frequent global causes of death. Within the limitations of currently available data sources and methodologies, these findings suggest that the global economic impact of dental diseases amounted to US$442 billion in 2010. Improvements in population oral health may imply substantial economic benefits not only in terms of reduced treatment costs but also because of fewer productivity losses in the labor market. © International & American Associations for Dental Research 2015.

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, Surabi; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Koch, Dorothy; Tselioudis, George; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W m(exp -2) in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, Surabi; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Koch, Dorothy; Tselioudis, George; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W/sq m in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

DNA double strand breaks induced by the indirect effect of radiation are more efficiently repaired by non-homologous end joining compared to homologous recombination repair.

PubMed

Bajinskis, Ainars; Natarajan, Adayapalam T; Erixon, Klaus; Harms-Ringdahl, Mats

2013-08-30

The aim of this study was to investigate the relative involvement of three major DNA repair pathways, i.e., non-homologous end joining (NHEJ), homologous recombination (HRR) and base excision (BER) in repair of DNA lesions of different complexity induced by low- or high-LET radiation with emphasis on the contribution of the indirect effect of radiation for these radiation qualities. A panel of DNA repair-deficient CHO cell lines was irradiated by (137)Cs γ-rays or radon progeny α-particles. Irradiation was also performed in the presence of 2M DMSO to reduce the indirect effect of radiation and the complexity of the DNA damage formed. Clonogenic survival and micronucleus assays were used to estimate efficiencies of the different repair pathways for DNA damages produced by direct and indirect effects. Removal of the indirect effect of low-LET radiation by DMSO increased clonogenic survival and decreased MN formation for all cell lines investigated. A direct contribution of the indirect effect of radiation to DNA base damage was suggested by the significant protection by DMSO seen for the BER deficient cell line. Lesions formed by the indirect effect are more readily repaired by the NHEJ pathway than by HRR after irradiation with γ-rays or α-particles as evaluated by cell survival and the yields of MN. The results obtained with BER- and NHEJ-deficient cells suggest that the indirect effect of radiation contributes significantly to the formation of repair substrates for these pathways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long shadow of fear in an epidemic: fearonomic effects of Ebola on the private sector in Nigeria

PubMed Central

Bali, Sulzhan; Stewart, Kearsley A

2016-01-01

Background The already significant impact of the Ebola epidemic on Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, was worsened by a fear of contagion that aggravated the health crisis. However, in contrast to other Ebola-affected countries, Nigeria fared significantly better due to its swift containment of the disease. The objective of our study was to describe the impact of Ebola on the Nigerian private sector. This paper introduces and defines the term fearonomic effect as the direct and indirect economic effects of both misinformation as well as fear-induced aversion behaviour, exhibited by individuals, organisations or countries during an outbreak or an epidemic. Methods This study was designed as a cross-sectional mixed-methods study that used semistructured in-depth interviews and a supporting survey to capture the impact of Ebola on the Nigerian private sector after the outbreak. Themes were generated from the interviews on the direct and indirect impact of Ebola on the private sector; the impact of misinformation and fear-based aversion behaviour in the private sector. Results Our findings reveal that the fearonomic effects of Ebola included health service outages and reduced healthcare usage as a result of misinformation and aversion behaviour by both patients and providers. Although certain sectors (eg, health sector, aviation sector, hospitality sector) in Nigeria were affected more than others, no business was immune to Ebola's fearonomic effects. We describe how sectors expected to prosper during the outbreak (eg, pharmaceuticals), actually suffered due to the changes in consumption patterns and demand shocks. Conclusion In a high-stressor epidemic-like setting, altered consumption behaviour due to distorted disease perception, misinformation and fear can trigger short-term economic cascades that can disproportionately affect businesses and lead to financial insecurity of the poorest and the most vulnerable in a society. PMID:28588965

Cost assessment of natural hazards in Europe - state-of-the-art, knowledge gaps and recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, V.; Becker, N.; Markantonis, V.; Schwarze, R.; van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.; Bouwer, L. M.; Bubeck, P.; Ciavola, P.; Thieken, A. H.; Genovese, E.; Green, C.; Hallegatte, S.; Kreibich, H.; Lequeux, Q.; Viavattenne, C.; Logar, I.; Papyrakis, E.; Pfurtscheller, C.; Poussin, J.; Przyluski, V.

2012-04-01

Effective and efficient reduction of natural hazard risks requires a thorough understanding of the costs of natural hazards in order to develop sustainable risk management strategies. The current methods that assess the costs of different natural hazards employ a diversity of terminologies and approaches for different hazards and impacted sectors. This makes it difficult to arrive at robust, comprehensive and comparable cost figures. The CONHAZ (Costs of Natural Hazards) project aimed to compile and synthesise current knowledge on cost assessment methods in order to strengthen the role of cost assessments in the development of integrated natural hazard management and adaptation planning. In order to achieve this, CONHAZ has adopted a comprehensive approach, considering natural hazards ranging from droughts, floods and coastal hazards to Alpine hazards, as well as different impacted sectors and cost types. Its specific objectives have been 1) to compile the state-of-the-art methods for cost assessment; 2) to analyse and assess these methods in terms of technical aspects, as well as terminology, data quality and availability, and research gaps; and 3) to synthesise resulting knowledge into recommendations and to identify further research needs. This presentation summarises the main results of CONHAZ. CONHAZ differentiates between direct tangible damages, losses due to business interruption, indirect damages, intangible effects, and costs of risk mitigation. It is shown that the main focus of cost assessment methods and their application in practice is on direct costs, while existing methods for assessing intangible and indirect effects are rather rarely applied and methods for assessing indirect effects often cannot be used on the scale of interest (e.g. the regional scale). Furthermore, methods often focus on single sectors and/or hazards, and only very few are able to reflect several sectors or multiple hazards. Process understanding and its use in cost assessment is poor, leading to highly uncertain results. However, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses as well as validations are hardly undertaken. Important recommendations are that cost assessment can be made more comprehensive by including indirect and intangible effects. Furthermore, the importance is highlighted of identifying sources of uncertainties, of reducing them effectively and of documenting remaining ones. One source of uncertainty concerns data sources. A framework for supporting data collection on the European level ensuring minimum data quality standards would facilitate the development and consistency of European and national databases. Furthermore, an improvement of methods is needed with regard to a better understanding and modelling of the damaging processes. In particular, there is a need for a better understanding of the economic response to external shocks and to improve models for indirect cost assessment based on this. Also models to estimate direct economic damage need to be based on more knowledge about the complex processes leading to damages. Moreover, the dynamics of risk due to climate and socio-economic change have to be better considered in the models in order to unveil uncertainties about future developments in the costs of natural hazards. Finally, there is a need for appropriate and transparent tools and guidance to support decision makers in the integration of uncertain cost assessment figures into decision making.

SPSS and SAS procedures for estimating indirect effects in simple mediation models.

PubMed

Preacher, Kristopher J; Hayes, Andrew F

2004-11-01

Researchers often conduct mediation analysis in order to indirectly assess the effect of a proposed cause on some outcome through a proposed mediator. The utility of mediation analysis stems from its ability to go beyond the merely descriptive to a more functional understanding of the relationships among variables. A necessary component of mediation is a statistically and practically significant indirect effect. Although mediation hypotheses are frequently explored in psychological research, formal significance tests of indirect effects are rarely conducted. After a brief overview of mediation, we argue the importance of directly testing the significance of indirect effects and provide SPSS and SAS macros that facilitate estimation of the indirect effect with a normal theory approach and a bootstrap approach to obtaining confidence intervals, as well as the traditional approach advocated by Baron and Kenny (1986). We hope that this discussion and the macros will enhance the frequency of formal mediation tests in the psychology literature. Electronic copies of these macros may be downloaded from the Psychonomic Society's Web archive at www.psychonomic.org/archive/.

The indirect effects of cheatgrass invasion: Grasshopper herbivory on native grasses determined by neighboring cheatgrass abundance

Treesearch

Julie Beckstead; Susan E. Meyer; Carol K. Augsperger

2008-01-01

Invasion biology has focused on the direct effects of plant invasion and has generally overlooked indirect interactions. Here we link theories of invasion biology and herbivory to explore an indirect effect of one invading species on associational herbivory (the effect of neighboring plants on herbivory) of native species. We studied a Great Basin shadscale (...

The rotation of Io

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henrard, Jacques

2005-11-01

The paper develops, in the framework of Hamiltonian mechanics, a theory of the rotation of Io, considered as a rigid body. The theory includes the perturbation due to Jupiter (considered as an oblate body) and the indirect perturbations due to the other Galilean satellites. In order to describe the orbit of Io around Jupiter, we use the synthetic theory of Lainey [2002, PhD dissertation, Observatoire de Paris], the result of a frequency analysis of a numerically integrated jovian system. The direct effects of the other Galilean satellites are found to be negligible, but their indirect effects are important. Our theory is consistent with the rigid body model and with Lainey's description of the orbit of Io, at least down to 10 rad (0.2 arc-second). Of course the effects of the nonrigidity of Io and of a probable liquid core should be considered. We find a mean obliquity of 7.619×10 rad (157 arc-second) and the period of the three free librations to be 13.25 days (free libration in longitude), 159.39 days (free libration in latitude), and 229.85 days (free wobble). Fourier series are produced describing, in the body frame, the motion of the polar axis of Jupiter, the motion of the unit vector pointing toward Jupiter, and the "motion of the pole" (the motion of the angular momentum with respect to the axis of largest inertia). Free librations (depending on three arbitrary parameters) are also computed.

Migratory herds of wildebeests and zebras indirectly affect calf survival of giraffes.

PubMed

Lee, Derek E; Kissui, Bernard M; Kiwango, Yustina A; Bond, Monica L

2016-12-01

In long-distance migratory systems, local fluctuations in the predator-prey ratio can exhibit extreme variability within a single year depending upon the seasonal location of migratory species. Such systems offer an opportunity to empirically investigate cyclic population density effects on short-term food web interactions by taking advantage of the large seasonal shifts in migratory prey biomass.We utilized a large-mammal predator-prey savanna food web to evaluate support for hypotheses relating to the indirect effects of "apparent competition" and "apparent mutualism" from migratory ungulate herds on survival of resident megaherbivore calves, mediated by their shared predator. African lions ( Panthera leo ) are generalist predators whose primary, preferred prey are wildebeests ( Connochaetes taurinus ) and zebras ( Equus quagga ), while lion predation on secondary prey such as giraffes ( Giraffa camelopardalis ) may change according to the relative abundance of the primary prey species.We used demographic data from five subpopulations of giraffes in the Tarangire Ecosystem of Tanzania, East Africa, to test hypotheses relating to direct predation and indirect effects of large migratory herds on calf survival of a resident megaherbivore. We examined neonatal survival via apparent reproduction of 860 adult females, and calf survival of 449 giraffe calves, during three precipitation seasons over 3 years, seeking evidence of some effect on neonate and calf survival as a consequence of the movements of large herds of migratory ungulates.We found that local lion predation pressure (lion density divided by primary prey density) was significantly negatively correlated with giraffe neonatal and calf survival probabilities. This supports the apparent mutualism hypothesis that the presence of migratory ungulates reduces lion predation on giraffe calves.Natural predation had a significant effect on giraffe calf and neonate survival, and could significantly affect giraffe population dynamics. If wildebeest and zebra populations in this ecosystem continue to decline as a result of increasingly disrupted migrations and poaching, then giraffe calves will face increased predation pressure as the predator-prey ratio increases. Our results suggest that the widespread population declines observed in many migratory systems are likely to trigger demographic impacts in other species due to indirect effects like those shown here.

Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global NWP model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulcahy, Jane; Walters, David; Bellouin, Nicolas; Milton, Sean

2014-05-01

Inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing longwave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects has significant impacts on the SW radiation particularly at high latitudes due to lower cloud amounts in high latitude clean air regions. This leads to improved surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site. Verification of temperature and height forecasts is also improved in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. This study highlights the importance of including a more realistic treatment of aerosol-cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License together with an author copyright. This license does not conflict with the regulations of the Crown Copyright.

Direct effects dominate responses to climate perturbations in grassland plant communities.

PubMed

Chu, Chengjin; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Havstad, Kris M; McClaran, Mitchel P; Peters, Debra P; Vermeire, Lance T; Wei, Haiyan; Adler, Peter B

2016-06-08

Theory predicts that strong indirect effects of environmental change will impact communities when niche differences between competitors are small and variation in the direct effects experienced by competitors is large, but empirical tests are lacking. Here we estimate negative frequency dependence, a proxy for niche differences, and quantify the direct and indirect effects of climate change on each species. Consistent with theory, in four of five communities indirect effects are strongest for species showing weak negative frequency dependence. Indirect effects are also stronger in communities where there is greater variation in direct effects. Overall responses to climate perturbations are driven primarily by direct effects, suggesting that single species models may be adequate for forecasting the impacts of climate change in these communities.

Temperature Effects Explain Continental Scale Distribution of Cyanobacterial Toxins

PubMed Central

Mantzouki, Evanthia; Fastner, Jutta; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette; Wilk-Woźniak, Elżbieta; Koreivienė, Judita; Verstijnen, Yvon; Krztoń, Wojciech; Walusiak, Edward; Karosienė, Jūratė; Kasperovičienė, Jūratė; Savadova, Ksenija; Vitonytė, Irma; Budzyńska, Agnieszka; Szeląg-Wasielewska, Elżbieta; Domek, Piotr; Messyasz, Beata; Pełechata, Aleksandra; Pełechaty, Mariusz; Kokocinski, Mikolaj; García-Murcia, Ana; Real, Monserrat; Romans, Elvira; Noguero-Ribes, Jordi; Duque, David Parreño; Karakaya, Nusret; Häggqvist, Kerstin; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Filiz, Nur; Iskin, Uğur; Bezirci, Gizem; Tavşanoğlu, Ülkü Nihan; Panou, Manthos; Fakioglu, Özden; Avagianos, Christos; Çelik, Kemal; Yilmaz, Mete; Marcé, Rafael; Buck, Moritz; Colom-Montero, William; Mustonen, Kristiina; Pierson, Don; Yang, Yang; Raposeiro, Pedro M.; Antoniou, Maria G.; Tsiarta, Nikoletta; McCarthy, Valerie; Perello, Victor C.; Feldmann, Tõnu; Panksep, Kristel; Tuvikene, Lea; Gagala, Ilona; Çınar, Şakir; Çapkın, Kadir; Yağcı, Abdulkadir; Cesur, Mehmet; Bilgin, Fuat; Bulut, Cafer; Uysal, Rahmi; Boscaini, Adriano; Cerasino, Leonardo; Richardson, Jessica; Visser, Petra M.; Verspagen, Jolanda M. H.; Karan, Tünay; Ochocka, Agnieszka; Pasztaleniec, Agnieszka; Köker, Latife; Albay, Meriç; Maronić, Dubravka Špoljarić; Stević, Filip; Pfeiffer, Tanja Žuna; Fonvielle, Jeremy; Rothhaupt, Karl-Otto; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Bláha, Luděk; Geriš, Rodan; Fránková, Markéta; Koçer, Mehmet Ali Turan; Alp, Mehmet Tahir; Remec-Rekar, Spela; Elersek, Tina; Hiskia, Anastasia; Haande, Sigrid; Skjelbred, Birger; Madrecka, Beata; Nemova, Hana; Drastichova, Iveta; Chomova, Lucia; Edwards, Christine; Sevindik, Tuğba Ongun; Tunca, Hatice; Önem, Burçin; Aleksovski, Boris; Krstić, Svetislav; Vucelić, Itana Bokan; Nawrocka, Lidia; Salmi, Pauliina; Machado-Vieira, Danielle; de Oliveira, Alinne Gurjão; Delgado-Martín, Jordi; García, David; Cereijo, Jose Luís; Trapote, Mari Carmen; Obrador, Biel; Grabowska, Magdalena; Chmura, Damian; Úbeda, Bárbara; Warming, Trine Perlt; Kobos, Justyna; Mazur-Marzec, Hanna; Arvola, Lauri; Alcaraz-Párraga, Pablo; Toporowska, Magdalena; Pawlik-Skowronska, Barbara; Niedźwiecki, Michał; Pęczuła, Wojciech; Moreno-Ostos, Enrique; Blanco, José María; Rodríguez, Valeriano; Montes-Pérez, Jorge Juan; Palomino, Roberto L.; Rodríguez-Pérez, Estela; Carballeira, Rafael; Picazo, Antonio; Santamans, Anna C.; Ferriol, Carmen; Romo, Susana; Dunalska, Julita; Sieńska, Justyna; Szymański, Daniel; Kostrzewska-Szlakowska, Iwona; Jasser, Iwona; Žutinić, Petar; Udovič, Marija Gligora; Plenković-Moraj, Anđelka; Frąk, Magdalena; Bańkowska-Sobczak, Agnieszka; Wasilewicz, Michał; Özkan, Korhan; Kangro, Kersti; Ibelings, Bas W.

2018-01-01

Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains. PMID:29652856

Temperature Effects Explain Continental Scale Distribution of Cyanobacterial Toxins.

PubMed

Mantzouki, Evanthia; Lürling, Miquel; Fastner, Jutta; de Senerpont Domis, Lisette; Wilk-Woźniak, Elżbieta; Koreivienė, Judita; Seelen, Laura; Teurlincx, Sven; Verstijnen, Yvon; Krztoń, Wojciech; Walusiak, Edward; Karosienė, Jūratė; Kasperovičienė, Jūratė; Savadova, Ksenija; Vitonytė, Irma; Cillero-Castro, Carmen; Budzyńska, Agnieszka; Goldyn, Ryszard; Kozak, Anna; Rosińska, Joanna; Szeląg-Wasielewska, Elżbieta; Domek, Piotr; Jakubowska-Krepska, Natalia; Kwasizur, Kinga; Messyasz, Beata; Pełechaty, Aleksandra; Pełechaty, Mariusz; Kokocinski, Mikolaj; García-Murcia, Ana; Real, Monserrat; Romans, Elvira; Noguero-Ribes, Jordi; Duque, David Parreño; Fernández-Morán, Elísabeth; Karakaya, Nusret; Häggqvist, Kerstin; Demir, Nilsun; Beklioğlu, Meryem; Filiz, Nur; Levi, Eti E.; Iskin, Uğur; Bezirci, Gizem; Tavşanoğlu, Ülkü Nihan; Özhan, Koray; Gkelis, Spyros; Panou, Manthos; Fakioglu, Özden; Avagianos, Christos; Kaloudis, Triantafyllos; Çelik, Kemal; Yilmaz, Mete; Marcé, Rafael; Catalán, Nuria; Bravo, Andrea G.; Buck, Moritz; Colom-Montero, William; Mustonen, Kristiina; Pierson, Don; Yang, Yang; Raposeiro, Pedro M.; Gonçalves, Vítor; Antoniou, Maria G.; Tsiarta, Nikoletta; McCarthy, Valerie; Perello, Victor C.; Feldmann, Tõnu; Laas, Alo; Panksep, Kristel; Tuvikene, Lea; Gagala, Ilona; Mankiewicz-Boczek, Joana; Yağcı, Meral Apaydın; Çınar, Şakir; Çapkın, Kadir; Yağcı, Abdulkadir; Cesur, Mehmet; Bilgin, Fuat; Bulut, Cafer; Uysal, Rahmi; Obertegger, Ulrike; Boscaini, Adriano; Flaim, Giovanna; Salmaso, Nico; Cerasino, Leonardo; Richardson, Jessica; Visser, Petra M.; Verspagen, Jolanda M. H.; Karan, Tünay; Soylu, Elif Neyran; Maraşlıoğlu, Faruk; Napiórkowska-Krzebietke, Agnieszka; Ochocka, Agnieszka; Pasztaleniec, Agnieszka; Antão-Geraldes, Ana M.; Vasconcelos, Vitor; Morais, João; Vale, Micaela; Köker, Latife; Akçaalan, Reyhan; Albay, Meriç; Špoljarić Maronić, Dubravka; Stević, Filip; Žuna Pfeiffer, Tanja; Fonvielle, Jeremy; Straile, Dietmar; Rothhaupt, Karl-Otto; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo; Bláha, Luděk; Geriš, Rodan; Fránková, Markéta; Koçer, Mehmet Ali Turan; Alp, Mehmet Tahir; Remec-Rekar, Spela; Elersek, Tina; Triantis, Theodoros; Zervou, Sevasti-Kiriaki; Hiskia, Anastasia; Haande, Sigrid; Skjelbred, Birger; Madrecka, Beata; Nemova, Hana; Drastichova, Iveta; Chomova, Lucia; Edwards, Christine; Sevindik, Tuğba Ongun; Tunca, Hatice; Önem, Burçin; Aleksovski, Boris; Krstić, Svetislav; Vucelić, Itana Bokan; Nawrocka, Lidia; Salmi, Pauliina; Machado-Vieira, Danielle; de Oliveira, Alinne Gurjão; Delgado-Martín, Jordi; García, David; Cereijo, Jose Luís; Gomà, Joan; Trapote, Mari Carmen; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa; Obrador, Biel; Grabowska, Magdalena; Karpowicz, Maciej; Chmura, Damian; Úbeda, Bárbara; Gálvez, José Ángel; Özen, Arda; Christoffersen, Kirsten Seestern; Warming, Trine Perlt; Kobos, Justyna; Mazur-Marzec, Hanna; Pérez-Martínez, Carmen; Ramos-Rodríguez, Eloísa; Arvola, Lauri; Alcaraz-Párraga, Pablo; Toporowska, Magdalena; Pawlik-Skowronska, Barbara; Niedźwiecki, Michał; Pęczuła, Wojciech; Leira, Manel; Hernández, Armand; Moreno-Ostos, Enrique; Blanco, José María; Rodríguez, Valeriano; Montes-Pérez, Jorge Juan; Palomino, Roberto L.; Rodríguez-Pérez, Estela; Carballeira, Rafael; Camacho, Antonio; Picazo, Antonio; Rochera, Carlos; Santamans, Anna C.; Ferriol, Carmen; Romo, Susana; Soria, Juan Miguel; Dunalska, Julita; Sieńska, Justyna; Szymański, Daniel; Kruk, Marek; Kostrzewska-Szlakowska, Iwona; Jasser, Iwona; Žutinić, Petar; Gligora Udovič, Marija; Plenković-Moraj, Anđelka; Frąk, Magdalena; Bańkowska-Sobczak, Agnieszka; Wasilewicz, Michał; Özkan, Korhan; Maliaka, Valentini; Kangro, Kersti; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Paerl, Hans W.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Ibelings, Bas W.

2018-04-13

Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

Estimation of indirect effect when the mediator is a censored variable.

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Shete, Sanjay

2017-01-01

A mediation model explores the direct and indirect effects of an initial variable ( X) on an outcome variable ( Y) by including a mediator ( M). In many realistic scenarios, investigators observe censored data instead of the complete data. Current research in mediation analysis for censored data focuses mainly on censored outcomes, but not censored mediators. In this study, we proposed a strategy based on the accelerated failure time model and a multiple imputation approach. We adapted a measure of the indirect effect for the mediation model with a censored mediator, which can assess the indirect effect at both the group and individual levels. Based on simulation, we established the bias in the estimations of different paths (i.e. the effects of X on M [ a], of M on Y [ b] and of X on Y given mediator M [ c']) and indirect effects when analyzing the data using the existing approaches, including a naïve approach implemented in software such as Mplus, complete-case analysis, and the Tobit mediation model. We conducted simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed strategy compared to that of the existing approaches. The proposed strategy accurately estimates the coefficients of different paths, indirect effects and percentages of the total effects mediated. We applied these mediation approaches to the study of SNPs, age at menopause and fasting glucose levels. Our results indicate that there is no indirect effect of association between SNPs and fasting glucose level that is mediated through the age at menopause.

The consequences of human actions on risks for infectious diseases: a review

PubMed Central

Lindahl, Johanna F.; Grace, Delia

2015-01-01

The human population is growing, requiring more space for food production, and needing more animals to feed it. Emerging infectious diseases are increasing, causing losses in both human and animal lives, as well as large costs to society. Many factors are contributing to disease emergence, including climate change, globalization and urbanization, and most of these factors are to some extent caused by humans. Pathogens may be more or less prone to emergence in themselves, and rapidly mutating viruses are more common among the emerging pathogens. The climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases are likely to be emerging due to climate changes and environmental changes, such as increased irrigation. This review lists the factors within pathogens that make them prone to emergence, and the modes of transmission that are affected. The anthropogenic changes contributing to disease emergence are described, as well as how they directly and indirectly cause either increased numbers of susceptible or exposed individuals, or cause increased infectivity. Many actions may have multiple direct or indirect effects, and it may be difficult to assess what the consequences may be. In addition, most anthropogenic drivers are related to desired activities, such as logging, irrigation, trade, and travelling, which the society is requiring. It is important to research more about the indirect and direct effects of the different actions to understand both the benefits and the risks. PMID:26615822

Adaptive evolution of body size subject to indirect effect in trophic cascade system.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Fan, Meng; Hao, Lina

2017-09-01

Trophic cascades represent a classic example of indirect effect and are wide-spread in nature. Their ecological impact are well established, but the evolutionary consequences have received even less theoretical attention. We theoretically and numerically investigate the trait (i.e., body size of consumer) evolution in response to indirect effect in a trophic cascade system. By applying the quantitative trait evolutionary theory and the adaptive dynamic theory, we formulate and explore two different types of eco-evolutionary resource-consumer-predator trophic cascade model. First, an eco-evolutionary model incorporating the rapid evolution is formulated to investigate the effect of rapid evolution of the consumer's body size, and to explore the impact of density-mediate indirect effect on the population dynamics and trait dynamics. Next, by employing the adaptive dynamic theory, a long-term evolutionary model of consumer body size is formulated to evaluate the effect of long-term evolution on the population dynamics and the effect of trait-mediate indirect effect. Those models admit rich dynamics that has not been observed yet in empirical studies. It is found that, both in the trait-mediated and density-mediated system, the body size of consumer in predator-consumer-resource interaction (indirect effect) evolves smaller than that in consumer-resource and predator-consumer interaction (direct effect). Moreover, in the density-mediated system, we found that the evolution of consumer body size contributes to avoiding consumer extinction (i.e., evolutionary rescue). The trait-mediate and density-mediate effects may produce opposite evolutionary response. This study suggests that the trophic cascade indirect effect affects consumer evolution, highlights a more comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the intricate interplay between ecological and evolutionary force. The modeling approaches provide avenue for study on indirect effects from an evolutionary perspective. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying and Testing Indirect Effects in Simple Mediation Models when the Constituent Paths Are Nonlinear

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayes, Andrew F.; Preacher, Kristopher J.

2010-01-01

Most treatments of indirect effects and mediation in the statistical methods literature and the corresponding methods used by behavioral scientists have assumed linear relationships between variables in the causal system. Here we describe and extend a method first introduced by Stolzenberg (1980) for estimating indirect effects in models of…

The relationship between physical and mental health: A mediation analysis.

PubMed

Ohrnberger, Julius; Fichera, Eleonora; Sutton, Matt

2017-12-01

There is a strong link between mental health and physical health, but little is known about the pathways from one to the other. We analyse the direct and indirect effects of past mental health on present physical health and past physical health on present mental health using lifestyle choices and social capital in a mediation framework. We use data on 10,693 individuals aged 50 years and over from six waves (2002-2012) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Mental health is measured by the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES) and physical health by the Activities of Daily Living (ADL). We find significant direct and indirect effects for both forms of health, with indirect effects explaining 10% of the effect of past mental health on physical health and 8% of the effect of past physical health on mental health. Physical activity is the largest contributor to the indirect effects. There are stronger indirect effects for males in mental health (9.9%) and for older age groups in mental health (13.6%) and in physical health (12.6%). Health policies aiming at changing physical and mental health need to consider not only the direct cross-effects but also the indirect cross-effects between mental health and physical health. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Method for Forecasting the Commercial Air Traffic Schedule in the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, Dou; Lee, David; Gaier, Eric; Johnson, Jesse; Kostiuk, Peter

1999-01-01

This report presents an integrated set of models that forecasts air carriers' future operations when delays due to limited terminal-area capacity are considered. This report models the industry as a whole, avoiding unnecessary details of competition among the carriers. To develop the schedule outputs, we first present a model to forecast the unconstrained flight schedules in the future, based on the assumption of rational behavior of the carriers. Then we develop a method to modify the unconstrained schedules, accounting for effects of congestion due to limited NAS capacities. Our underlying assumption is that carriers will modify their operations to keep mean delays within certain limits. We estimate values for those limits from changes in planned block times reflected in the OAG. Our method for modifying schedules takes many means of reducing the delays into considerations, albeit some of them indirectly. The direct actions include depeaking, operating in off-hours, and reducing hub airports'operations. Indirect actions include using secondary airports, using larger aircraft, and selecting new hub airports, which, we assume, have already been modeled in the FAA's TAF. Users of our suite of models can substitute an alternative forecast for the TAF.

The Association Between Obesity and Cognitive Function in Older Persons: How Much Is Mediated by Inflammation, Fasting Plasma Glucose, and Hypertriglyceridemia?

PubMed

Gunathilake, Roshan; Oldmeadow, Christopher; McEvoy, Mark; Inder, Kerry J; Schofield, Peter W; Nair, Balakrishnan R; Attia, John

2016-12-01

The aim of the study was to determine how much of the association between obesity, measured by body mass index (BMI), and cognition in older persons is mediated through inflammation, fasting plasma glucose, and hypertriglyceridemia. Anthropometrics, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP), fasting plasma glucose, and serum triglycerides were measured in 3,256 community-dwelling individuals aged 55-85 years residing in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia. Audio recorded cognitive screen (ARCS) was used to assess multiple cognitive domains. Mediation analyses showed very modest but significant direct mediation effects, whereby obesity was associated with better cognitive function after adjusting for potential confounders (controlled direct effect ≈ 1/500 point increase in the total ARCS score per 1.0-kg/m 2 increase in BMI). There were significant indirect negative mediation effects from BMI to cognition mediated through CRP, that is, increased BMI was associated with increased CRP which was associated with decreased cognition (natural indirect effect -0.20 unit; 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.39, -0.02), and through fasting plasma glucose, that is, increased BMI was associated with increased fasting plasma glucose which was associated with decreased cognition (natural indirect effect -0.12 unit; 95% CI -0.24, -0.01], but not through serum triglycerides. There is a weak positive association between obesity and cognitive performance in older persons, which is partially antagonized by inflammation and elevated fasting plasma glucose, but not hypertriglyceridemia. Further studies are needed to elucidate whether this is due to selection bias, or truly reflects biologically complex and counter balancing pathways involved in obesity. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the risk of infection by water-transmitted pathogens.

PubMed

Sterk, Ankie; Schijven, Jack; de Nijs, Ton; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

2013-11-19

Climate change is likely to affect the infectious disease burden from exposure to pathogens in water used for drinking and recreation. Effective intervention measures require quantification of impacts of climate change on the distribution of pathogens in the environment and their potential effects on human health. Objectives of this systematic review were to summarize current knowledge available to estimate how climate change may directly and indirectly affect infection risks due to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Vibrio. Secondary objectives were to prioritize natural processes and interactions that are susceptible to climate change and to identify knowledge gaps. Search strategies were determined based on a conceptual model and scenarios with the main emphasis on The Netherlands. The literature search resulted in a large quantity of publications on climate variables affecting pathogen input and behavior in aquatic environments. However, not all processes and pathogens are evenly covered by the literature, and in many cases, the direction of change is still unclear. To make useful predictions of climate change, it is necessary to combine both negative and positive effects. This review provides an overview of the most important effects of climate change on human health and shows the importance of QMRA to quantify the net effects.

Indirect evolutionary rescue: prey adapts, predator avoids extinction

PubMed Central

Yamamichi, Masato; Miner, Brooks E

2015-01-01

Recent studies have increasingly recognized evolutionary rescue (adaptive evolution that prevents extinction following environmental change) as an important process in evolutionary biology and conservation science. Researchers have concentrated on single species living in isolation, but populations in nature exist within communities of interacting species, so evolutionary rescue should also be investigated in a multispecies context. We argue that the persistence or extinction of a focal species can be determined solely by evolutionary change in an interacting species. We demonstrate that prey adaptive evolution can prevent predator extinction in two-species predator–prey models, and we derive the conditions under which this indirect evolutionary interaction is essential to prevent extinction following environmental change. A nonevolving predator can be rescued from extinction by adaptive evolution of its prey due to a trade-off for the prey between defense against predation and population growth rate. As prey typically have larger populations and shorter generations than their predators, prey evolution can be rapid and have profound effects on predator population dynamics. We suggest that this process, which we term ‘indirect evolutionary rescue’, has the potential to be critically important to the ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and communities to dramatic environmental change. PMID:26366196

Controlling Laser-Plasma Instabilities and CBET Using STUD Pulses in the Strong Coupling Regime for Direct and Indirect Drive ICF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afeyan, Bedros; Meezan, N.; MacLaren, S.; Hammer, J.; Montgomery, D.; Heebner, J.

2015-11-01

We will show theoretical results on the behavior of SBS in the strong damping regime and CBET in mid-Z plasmas (around 20) where ion Landau damping and collisional damping are both higher order effects and strong coupling is dominant in laser hot spots and near Mach -1 surfaces in appropriately tuned pairs of crossing beams. The spatially dependent frequency shits that ensue and the reductions in growth rate allow the control of LPI even downstream beyond the crossing volumes. Multiple successive crossings between O(100) beams can be used to change the space-time intensity distributions of lasers used entirely differently in direct and indirect drive geometries. In the former case, due to the existence of many angles, a statistical Sqrt(N) gain is expected. with randomly phased beams via STUD pulses. On the other hand, for indirect drive, with 2-4 cone angles to contend with, turning off interactions by staggering crossing beam spikes, achieved with STUD pulses, is a key deterministic element for the success of the plan. Changing the speckle statistics at will and with fine control is a grand challenge of this set of techniques.

Autism, Context/Noncontext Information Processing, and Atypical Development

PubMed Central

Skoyles, John R.

2011-01-01

Autism has been attributed to a deficit in contextual information processing. Attempts to understand autism in terms of such a defect, however, do not include more recent computational work upon context. This work has identified that context information processing depends upon the extraction and use of the information hidden in higher-order (or indirect) associations. Higher-order associations underlie the cognition of context rather than that of situations. This paper starts by examining the differences between higher-order and first-order (or direct) associations. Higher-order associations link entities not directly (as with first-order ones) but indirectly through all the connections they have via other entities. Extracting this information requires the processing of past episodes as a totality. As a result, this extraction depends upon specialised extraction processes separate from cognition. This information is then consolidated. Due to this difference, the extraction/consolidation of higher-order information can be impaired whilst cognition remains intact. Although not directly impaired, cognition will be indirectly impaired by knock on effects such as cognition compensating for absent higher-order information with information extracted from first-order associations. This paper discusses the implications of this for the inflexible, literal/immediate, and inappropriate information processing of autistic individuals. PMID:22937255

Identification of Indirect Effects in a Cognitive Patient Education (COPE) Intervention for Low Back Pain.

PubMed

Mansell, Gemma; Storheim, Kjersti; Løchting, Ida; Werner, Erik L; Grotle, Margreth

2017-12-01

Many interventions for the treatment of low back pain exist, but the mechanisms through which such treatments work are not always clear. This situation is especially true for biopsychosocial interventions that incorporate several different components and methods of delivery. The study objective was to examine the indirect effects of the Cognitive Patient Education (COPE) intervention via illness perceptions, back pain myths, and pain catastrophizing on disability outcome. This study was a secondary analysis of the COPE randomized controlled trial. Mediation analysis techniques were employed to examine the indirect effects of the COPE intervention via residualized change (baseline - posttreatment) in the 3 variables hypothesized to be targeted by the COPE intervention on posttreatment disability outcome. Pain intensity at baseline, pain duration, clinician type, and a treatment-mediator interaction term were controlled for in the analysis. Preliminary analyses confirmed that changes in pain catastrophizing and illness perceptions (not back pain myths) were related to both allocation to the intervention arm and posttreatment disability score. The treatment exerted statistically significant indirect effects via changes in illness perceptions and pain catastrophizing on posttreatment disability score (illness perceptions standardized indirect effect = 0.09 [95% CI = 0.03 to 0.16]; pain catastrophizing standardized indirect effect = 0.05 [95% CI = 0.01 to 0.12]). However, the inclusion of an interaction term led to the indirect effects being significantly reduced, with the effects no longer being statistically significant. This study presents a secondary analysis of variables not identified a priori as being potentially important treatment targets; other, unmeasured factors could also be important in explaining treatment effects. The finding that small indirect effects of the COPE intervention via changes in illness perceptions and pain catastrophizing on posttreatment disability could be estimated indicates that these variables may be viable treatment targets for biopsychosocial interventions; however, this finding must be viewed in light of the adjusted analyses, which showed that the indirect effects were significantly reduced through the inclusion of a treatment-mediator interaction term. © Crown copyright 2015

An analysis of indirect genetic effects on adult body weight of the Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei at low rearing density.

PubMed

Luan, Sheng; Luo, Kun; Chai, Zhan; Cao, Baoxiang; Meng, Xianhong; Lu, Xia; Liu, Ning; Xu, Shengyu; Kong, Jie

2015-12-14

Our aim was to estimate the genetic parameters for the direct genetic effect (DGE) and indirect genetic effects (IGE) on adult body weight in the Pacific white shrimp. IGE is the heritable effect of an individual on the trait values of its group mates. To examine IGE on body weight, 4725 shrimp from 105 tagged families were tested in multiple small test groups (MSTG). Each family was separated into three groups (15 shrimp per group) that were randomly assigned to 105 concrete tanks with shrimp from two other families. To estimate breeding values, one large test group (OLTG) in a 300 m(2) circular concrete tank was used for the communal rearing of 8398 individuals from 105 families. Body weight was measured after a growth-test period of more than 200 days. Variance components for body weight in the MSTG programs were estimated using an animal model excluding or including IGE whereas variance components in the OLTG programs were estimated using a conventional animal model that included only DGE. The correlation of DGE between MSTG and OLTG programs was estimated by a two-trait animal model that included or excluded IGE. Heritability estimates for body weight from the conventional animal model in MSTG and OLTG programs were 0.26 ± 0.13 and 0.40 ± 0.06, respectively. The log likelihood ratio test revealed significant IGE on body weight. Total heritable variance was the sum of direct genetic variance (43.5%), direct-indirect genetic covariance (2.1%), and indirect genetic variance (54.4%). It represented 73% of the phenotypic variance and was more than two-fold greater than that (32%) obtained by using a classical heritability model for body weight. Correlations of DGE on body weight between MSTG and OLTG programs were intermediate regardless of whether IGE were included or not in the model. Our results suggest that social interactions contributed to a large part of the heritable variation in body weight. Small and non-significant direct-indirect genetic correlations implied that neutral or slightly cooperative heritable interactions, rather than competition, were dominant in this population but this may be due to the low rearing density.

Trait- and density-mediated indirect interactions initiated by an exotic invasive plant autogenic ecosystem engineer

Treesearch

Dean E. Pearson

2010-01-01

Indirect interactions are important for structuring ecological systems. However, research on indirect effects has been heavily biased toward top-down trophic interactions, and less is known about other indirect-interaction pathways. As autogenic ecosystem engineers, plants can serve as initiators of nontrophic indirect interactions that, like top-down pathways, can...

Quantifying Direct and Indirect Effects of Elevated CO2 on Ecosystem Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, S.; Leuzinger, S.; Paschalis, A.; Donnellan-Barraclough, A.; Hovenden, M. J.; Langley, J. A.

2015-12-01

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide are expected to affect carbon assimilation, evapotranspiration (ET) and ultimately plant growth. Direct leaf biochemical effects have been widely investigated, while indirect effects, although documented, are very difficult to quantify in experiments. We hypothesize that the interaction of direct and indirect effects is a possible reason for conflicting results concerning the magnitude of CO2 fertilization effects across different climates and ecosystems. A mechanistic ecohydrological model (Tethys-Chloris) is used to investigate the relative contribution of direct (through plant physiology) and indirect (via stomatal closure and thus soil moisture, and changes in Leaf Area Index, LAI) effects of elevated CO2 across a number of ecosystems. We specifically ask in which ecosystems and climate indirect effects are expected to be largest. Data and boundary conditions from flux-towers and free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments are used to force the model and evaluate its performance. Numerical results suggest that indirect effects of elevated CO2, through water savings and increased LAI, are very significant and sometimes larger than direct effects. Indirect effects tend to be considerably larger in water-limited ecosystems, while direct effects correlate positively with mean air temperature. Increasing CO2 from 375 to 550 ppm causes a total effect on Net Primary Production in the order of 15 to 40% and on ET from 0 to -8%, depending on climate and ecosystem type. The total CO2 effect has a significant negative correlation with the wetness index and positive correlation with vapor pressure deficit. These results provide a more general mechanistic understanding of relatively short-term (less than 20 years) implications of elevated CO2 on ecosystem response and suggest plausible magnitudes for the expected changes.

Development of indirect EFBEM for radiating noise analysis including underwater problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Hyun-Wung; Hong, Suk-Yoon; Song, Jee-Hun

2013-09-01

For the analysis of radiating noise problems in medium-to-high frequency ranges, the Energy Flow Boundary Element Method (EFBEM) was developed. EFBEM is the analysis technique that applies the Boundary Element Method (BEM) to Energy Flow Analysis (EFA). The fundamental solutions representing spherical wave property for radiating noise problems in open field and considering the free surface effect in underwater are developed. Also the directivity factor is developed to express wave's directivity patterns in medium-to-high frequency ranges. Indirect EFBEM by using fundamental solutions and fictitious source was applied to open field and underwater noise problems successfully. Through numerical applications, the acoustic energy density distributions due to vibration of a simple plate model and a sphere model were compared with those of commercial code, and the comparison showed good agreement in the level and pattern of the energy density distributions.

Mapping Gnss Restricted Environments with a Drone Tandem and Indirect Position Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cledat, E.; Cucci, D. A.

2017-08-01

The problem of autonomously mapping highly cluttered environments, such as urban and natural canyons, is intractable with the current UAV technology. The reason lies in the absence or unreliability of GNSS signals due to partial sky occlusion or multi-path effects. High quality carrier-phase observations are also required in efficient mapping paradigms, such as Assisted Aerial Triangulation, to achieve high ground accuracy without the need of dense networks of ground control points. In this work we consider a drone tandem in which the first drone flies outside the canyon, where GNSS constellation is ideal, visually tracks the second drone and provides an indirect position control for it. This enables both autonomous guidance and accurate mapping of GNSS restricted environments without the need of ground control points. We address the technical feasibility of this concept considering preliminary real-world experiments in comparable conditions and we perform a mapping accuracy prediction based on a simulation scenario.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Michelle

Capillary electrophoresis (CE) is an effective method for separating ionic species according to differences in their electrophoretic mobilities. CE separations of amino acids by direct detection are difficult due to their similar electrophoretic mobilities and low absorbances. However, native amino acids can be separated by CE as cations at a low pH by adding an alkanesulfonic acid to the electrolyte carrier which imparts selectivity to the system. Derivatization is unnecessary when direct UV detection is used at 185 nm. Simultaneous speciation of metal cations such as vanadium (IV) and vanadium (V) can easily be performed without complexation prior to analysis.more » An indirect UV detection scheme for acidic conditions was also developed using guanidine as the background carrier electrolyte (BCE) for the indirect detection of metal cations. Three chapters have been removed for separate processing. This report contains introductory material, references, and general conclusions. 80 refs.« less

Indirect effects of an invasive annual grass on seed fates of two native perennial grass species

Treesearch

Susan E. Meyer; Katherine T. Merrill; Phil S. Allen; Julie Beckstead; Anna S. Norte

2014-01-01

Invasive plants exhibit both direct and indirect negative effects on recruitment of natives following invasion. We examined indirect effects of the invader Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) on seed fates of two native grass species, Elymus elymoides and Pseudoroegneria spicata, by removing B. tectorum and by adding inoculum of the shared seed pathogen Pyrenophora...

Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Vogelsang, Timothy J.; Klett, James D.; ...

2016-02-20

Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosolmore » effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.« less

Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chylek, Petr; Vogelsang, Timothy J.; Klett, James D.

Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosolmore » effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.« less

Aerosol Indirect Effect on Warm Clouds over Eastern China Using Combined CALIOP and MODIS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jianping; Wang, Fu; Huang, Jingfeng; Li, Xiaowen

2015-04-01

Aerosol, one of key components of the climate system, is highly variable, both temporally and spatially. It often exerts great influences on the cloud-precipitation chain processes by serving as CCN/IN, altering cloud microphysics and its life cycle. Yet, the aerosol indirect effect on clouds remains largely unknown, because the initial changes in clouds due to aerosols may be enhanced or dampened by such feedback processes as modified cloud dynamics, or evaporation of the smaller droplets due to the competition for water vapor. In this study, we attempted to quantify the aerosol effects on warm cloud over eastern China, based on near-simultaneous retrievals from MODIS/AQUA, CALIOP/CALIPSO and CPR/CLOUDSAT during the period 2006 to 2010. The seasonality of aerosol from ground-based PM10 is quite different from that estimated from MODIS AOD. This result is corroborated by lower level profile of aerosol occurrence frequency from CALIOP, indicating the significant role CALIOP could play in aerosol-cloud interaction. The combined use of CALIOP and CPR facilitate the process to exactly determine the (vertical) position of warm cloud relative to aerosol, out of six scenarios in terms of aerosol-cloud mixing status in terms of aerosol-cloud mixing status, which shows as follows: AO (Aerosol only), CO (Cloud only), SASC (Single aerosol-single cloud), SADC (single aerosol-double cloud), DASC (double aerosol-single cloud), and others. Results shows that about 54% of all the cases belong to mixed status, among all the collocated aerosol-cloud cases. Under mixed condition, a boomerang shape is observed, i.e., reduced cloud droplet radius (CDR) is associated with increasing aerosol at moderate aerosol pollution (AOD<0.4), becoming saturated at AOD of 0.5, followed by an increase in CDR with aerosol. In contrast, there is no such boomerang shape found for (aerosol-cloud) separated cases. We categorize dataset into warm-season and cold-season subsets to figure out how the boomerang shape varies with season. For moderate aerosol loading (AOD<0.4), the effect on the droplet size for the "Mixed" cases is greater during cold season (denoted by a large slope), as compared with that during warm season. It is likely associated with an increase in the emission of light absorbing aerosol like smoke (black carbon), mainly caused by coal-fired heating during the cold season in China. As expected, the sensitivity of CDR to AOD is much weaker for "Separated" cases, irrespective of warm or cold seasons, indicating no real aerosol indirect effect occurring in this case. In contrast, for heavy aerosol loading (AOD>0.4), an increasing CDR with AOD can be seen in "Mixed" scenario during the warm season. Conversely, a closer look at the responses of CDR during the cold season shows that CDR decreases with AOD, although the strength is not much large. Therefore, we argue that cloud droplet size decreases with aerosol loading during cold season, irrespective of moderate or heavy atmospheric pollution. Finally, we discuss the possible factors that may influence the aerosol indirect effects on warm clouds investigated here. For instance, aerosol-cloud interaction conundrum might be affected by aerosol humidification, which is the case for MODIS AOD during warm seasons. But this issue can be partly overcome by categorizing dataset into warm-season and cold-season subsets, representing different ambient humidity condition in the atmosphere. The different boomerang shapes observed during various seasons, particularly after transition zone due to droplet saturation effect, have great implications for climate forcing by aerosol in eastern China.

Household illness, poverty and physical and emotional child abuse victimisation: findings from South Africa's first prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Meinck, Franziska; Cluver, Lucie D; Boyes, Mark E

2015-05-01

Physical and emotional abuse of children is a large scale problem in South Africa, with severe negative outcomes for survivors. Although chronic household illness has shown to be a predictor for physical and emotional abuse, no research has thus far investigated the different pathways from household chronic illness to child abuse victimisation in South Africa. Confidential self-report questionnaires using internationally utilised measures were completed by children aged 10-17 (n = 3515, 56.7% female) using door-to-door sampling in randomly selected areas in rural and urban locations of South Africa. Follow-up surveys were conducted a year later (96.7% retention rate). Using multiple mediation analyses, this study investigated direct and indirect effects of chronic household illness (AIDS or other illness) on frequent (monthly) physical and emotional abuse victimisation with poverty and extent of the ill person's disability as hypothesised mediators. For children in AIDS-ill families, a positive direct effect on physical abuse was obtained. In addition, positive indirect effects through poverty and disability were established. For boys, a positive direct and indirect effect of AIDS-illness on emotional abuse through poverty were detected. For girls, a positive indirect effect through poverty was observed. For children in households with other chronic illness, a negative indirect effect on physical abuse was obtained. In addition, a negative indirect effect through poverty and positive indirect effect through disability was established. For boys, positive and negative indirect effects through poverty and disability were found respectively. For girls, a negative indirect effect through poverty was observed. These results indicate that children in families affected by AIDS-illness are at higher risk of child abuse victimisation, and this risk is mediated by higher levels of poverty and disability. Children affected by other chronic illness are at lower risk for abuse victimisation unless they are subject to higher levels of household disability. Interventions aiming to reduce poverty and increase family support may help prevent child abuse in families experiencing illness in South Africa.

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

2012-01-01

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

Trends in resource utilization and prescription of anticonvulsants for patients with active epilepsy in Germany from 2003 to 2013 - A ten-year overview.

PubMed

Willems, Laurent M; Richter, Saskia; Watermann, Nina; Bauer, Sebastian; Klein, Karl Martin; Reese, Jens-Peter; Schöffski, Oliver; Hamer, Hajo M; Knake, Susanne; Rosenow, Felix; Strzelczyk, Adam

2018-06-01

This study evaluated trends in resource use and prescription patterns in patients with active epilepsy over a 10-year period at the same outpatient clinic of a German epilepsy center. We analyzed a cross-sectional patient sample of consecutive adults with active epilepsy over a 3-month period in 2013 and compared them with equally acquired data from the years 2003 and 2008. Using validated patient questionnaires, data on socioeconomic status, course of epilepsy, as well as direct and indirect costs were recorded. A total of 198 patients (mean age: 39.6±15.0years, 49.5% male) were enrolled and compared with our previous assessments in 2003 (n=101) and 2008 (n=151). In the 2013 cohort, 75.8% of the patients had focal epilepsy, and the majority were taking antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) (39.9% monotherapy, 59.1% polytherapy). We calculated epilepsy-specific costs of €3674 per three months per patient. Direct medical costs were mainly due to anticonvulsants (20.9% of total direct costs) and to hospitalization (20.8% of total direct costs). The proportion of enzyme-inducing anticonvulsants and 'old' AEDs decreased between 2003 and 2013. Indirect costs of €1795 in 2013 were mainly due to early retirement (55.0% of total indirect costs), unemployment (26.5%), and days off due to seizures (18.2%). In contrast to our previous findings from 2003 and 2008, our data show a stagnating cost increase with slightly reduced total costs and balanced direct and indirect costs in patients with active epilepsy. These findings are accompanied by an ongoing cost-neutral increase in the prescription of 'newer' and non-enzyme-inducing AEDs. However, the number and distribution of indirect cost components remained unchanged. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Maternal deaths due to infectious cause, results from the French confidential enquiry into maternal deaths, 2010-2012].

PubMed

Rigouzzo, A; Tessier, V; Zieleskiewicz, L

2017-12-01

Over the period 2010-2012, maternal mortality from infectious causes accounted for 5% of maternal deaths by direct causes and 16% of maternal deaths by indirect causes. Among the 22 deaths caused by infection occurred during this period, 6 deaths were attributed to direct causes from genital tract origin, confirming thus the decrease in direct maternal deaths by infection during the last ten years. On the contrary, indirect maternal deaths by infection, from extragenital origin, doubled during the same period, with 16 deaths in the last triennium, dominated by winter respiratory infections, particularly influenza: the 2009-2010 influenza A (H1N1) virus pandemic was the leading cause of indirect maternal mortality by infection during the studied period. The main infectious agents involved in maternal deaths from direct causes were Streptococcus A, Escherichia Coli and Clostridium perfringens: these bacterias were responsible for toxic shock syndrome, severe sepsis, secondary in some cases to cellulitis or necrotizing fasciitis. Of the 6 deaths due to direct infection, 4 were considered avoidable because of inadequate management: delayed or missed diagnosis, delayed or inadequate initiation of a specific medical and/or surgical treatment. Of the 16 indirect maternal deaths due to infection causes, the most often involved infectious agents were influenza A (H1N1) virus and Streptococcus pneumonia with induced purpura fulminans: the absence of influenza vaccination during pregnancy, delayed diagnosis and emergency initiation of a specific treatment, were the main contributory factors to these deaths and their avoidability in 70% of the cases analyzed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Trends in resource utilization and prescription of anticonvulsants for patients with active epilepsy in Germany.

PubMed

Strzelczyk, Adam; Haag, Anja; Reese, Jens P; Nickolay, Tanja; Oertel, Wolfgang H; Dodel, Richard; Knake, Susanne; Rosenow, Felix; Hamer, Hajo M

2013-06-01

This study evaluated trends in the resource use of patients with active epilepsy over a 5-year period at an outpatient clinic of a German epilepsy center. Two cross-sectional cohorts of consecutive adults with active epilepsy were evaluated over a 3-month period in 2003 and 2008. Data on socioeconomic status, course of epilepsy, as well as direct and indirect costs were recorded using validated patient questionnaires. We enrolled 101 patients in 2003 and 151 patients in 2008. In both cohorts, 76% of the patients suffered from focal epilepsy, and the majority was on antiepileptic drug (AED) polytherapy (mean AED number: 1.7 (2003), 1.8 (2008)). We calculated epilepsy-specific costs of € 2955 in 2003 and € 3532 in 2008 per 3 months per patient. Direct medical costs were mainly due to anticonvulsants in 2003 (59.4% of total direct costs, 34.0% in 2008) and to hospitalization in 2008 (46.9% of total direct costs, 27.7% in 2003). The proportion of enzyme-inducing anticonvulsants and 'old' AEDs decreased between 2003 and 2008. Indirect costs of € 1689 and € 1847 were mainly due to early retirement (48.4%; 46.0% of total indirect costs in 2003; 2008), unemployment (26.1%; 24.2%), and days off due to seizures (25.5%; 29.8%). This study showed a shift in distribution of direct cost components with increased hospital costs as well as a cost-neutral increase in the prescription of 'newer' AEDs. The amount and distribution of indirect cost components remained unchanged. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health services costs and their determinants in women with fibromyalgia.

PubMed

Penrod, John R; Bernatsky, Sasha; Adam, Viviane; Baron, Murray; Dayan, Natalie; Dobkin, Patricia L

2004-07-01

Patients with fibromyalgia (FM) use health services extensively. Knowledge about costs of FM is limited because of non-inclusiveness in assessing direct costs, because attempts to assess indirect costs are largely absent, and because determinants of costs have yet to be identified. We investigated the 6-month costs (direct and indirect) in women with primary FM, and we identified determinants of direct costs. Subjects (n = 180 women) completed a health resource questionnaire as well as measures of pain, psychological distress, comorbidity, and disability. Unit costs for resources were obtained from government, hospital, laboratory, and professional association sources. Regression modeling for 6-month direct cost included age, disability, comorbidity, pain intensity, psychological distress, education, and work status. The average 6-month direct cost was $CDN 2298 (SD 2303). The largest components were medications ($CDN 758; SD 654), complementary and alternative medicine (CAM; $CDN 398; SD 776), and diagnostic tests ($CDN 356; SD 580). Our most conservative estimate of average 6-month indirect cost was $CDN 5035 (SD 7439). Comorbidity and FM disability were statistically significant contributors to direct costs in the multivariate analysis. Costs increased by approximately 20% with each additional comorbid condition. Women with FM are high consumers of both conventional and CAM services. Our estimates of costs exceed those from most other studies; this may be due to our inclusion of a broader set of health services, medications, and indirect costs. Although in univariate analyses the number of comorbidities and indices of the effect of FM, psychological distress, and pain intensity were associated with higher direct cost, in a multiple regression analysis, only the measure of FM disability and the number of comorbidities were significant direct-cost determinants. FM also imposes important indirect costs, which were nearly 70% of the economic burden.

Direct and indirect medical costs incurred by Canadian patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a 12 year study.

PubMed

Clarke, A E; Zowall, H; Levinton, C; Assimakopoulos, H; Sibley, J T; Haga, M; Shiroky, J; Neville, C; Lubeck, D P; Grover, S A; Esdaile, J M

1997-06-01

To perform the first prospective longitudinal study of direct (health services utilized) and indirect costs (diminished productivity represented by income loss) incurred by patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Saskatoon and Montreal, followed for up to 12 and 4 years, respectively. 1063 patients reported on health status, health services utilization, and diminished productivity every 6 months. Annual direct costs were $3788 (1994 Canadian dollars) in the late 1980s and $4656 in the early 1990s. Given that the average age exceeded 60 years, few participated in labor force activities or considered themselves disabled from the labor force and their indirect costs were substantially less, $2165 in the late 1980s and $1597 in the early 1990s. Institutional stays and medications made up at least 80% of total direct costs. Lengths of stay in acute care facilities remained constant, but the rate of hospitalization increased in the early 1990s, increasing average hospital costs per patient from $1563 in the late 1980s to $2023 in the early 1990s. For nonacute care facilities, rate of admission as well as length of stay increased over time, increasing costs per patient in Saskatoon 5-fold, from $291 to $1605. Those with greater functional disability incurred substantially higher direct and those under 65 years incurred higher indirect costs. Direct costs are higher than indirect costs. The major component is due to institutional stays that, in contrast to other direct cost components, is increased in the older and more disabled. Measures to reduce longterm disability by earlier, more aggressive intervention have the potential to produce considerable cost savings. However, it is unknown which strategies will have the greatest effect on outcome and accordingly, how resources can be optimally allocated.

The Effects of Direct and Indirect Speech Acts on Native English and ESL Speakers' Perception of Teacher Written Feedback

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Wendy; Hansen Bricker, Rachel

2010-01-01

This study explores how second language (L2) learners perceive indirect (hedging or indirect speech acts) and direct written teacher feedback. Though research suggests that indirect speech acts may be more difficult to interpret than direct speech acts ([Champagne, 2001] and [Holtgraves, 1999]), using indirect speech acts is often encouraged in…

Direct and indirect band gaps in Ge under biaxial tensile strain investigated by photoluminescence and photoreflectance studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saladukha, D.; Clavel, M. B.; Murphy-Armando, F.; Greene-Diniz, G.; Grüning, M.; Hudait, M. K.; Ochalski, T. J.

2018-05-01

Germanium is an indirect semiconductor which attracts particular interest as an electronics and photonics material due to low indirect-to-direct band separation. In this work we bend the bands of Ge by means of biaxial tensile strain in order to achieve a direct band gap. Strain is applied by growth of Ge on a lattice mismatched InGaAs buffer layer with variable In content. Band structure is studied by photoluminescence and photoreflectance, giving the indirect and direct bands of the material. Obtained experimental energy band values are compared with a k .p simulation. Photoreflectance spectra are also simulated and compared with the experiment. The obtained results indicate direct band structure obtained for a Ge sample with 1.94 % strain applied, with preferable Γ valley to heavy hole transition.

Effects of fuel-capsule shimming and drive asymmetry on inertial-confinement-fusion symmetry and yield

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Séguin, F. H.; Li, C. K.; DeCiantis, J. L.

Three orthogonal proton emission imaging cameras were used to study the 3D effects of low-mode drive asymmetries and target asymmetries on nuclear burn symmetry and yield in direct-drive, inertial-confinement-fusion experiments. The fusion yield decreased quickly as the burn region became asymmetric due to either drive or capsule asymmetry. Measurements and analytic scaling are used to predict how intentionally asymmetric capsule shells could improve performance by compensating for drive asymmetry when it cannot be avoided (such as with indirect drive or with polar direct drive).

Effects of fuel-capsule shimming and drive asymmetry on inertial-confinement-fusion symmetry and yield

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seguin, F. H.; Li, C. K.; DeCiantis, J. L.

Three orthogonal proton emission imaging cameras were used to study the 3D effects of low-mode drive asymmetries and target asymmetries on nuclear burn symmetry and yield in direct-drive, inertial-confinement-fusion experiments. The fusion yield decreased quickly as the burn region became asymmetric due to either drive or capsule asymmetry. Furthermore, measurements and analytic scaling are used to predict how intentionally asymmetric capsule shells could improve performance by compensating for drive asymmetry when it cannot be avoided (such as with indirect drive or with polar direct drive).

Effects of fuel-capsule shimming and drive asymmetry on inertial-confinement-fusion symmetry and yield

DOE PAGES

Seguin, F. H.; Li, C. K.; DeCiantis, J. L.; ...

2016-03-22

Three orthogonal proton emission imaging cameras were used to study the 3D effects of low-mode drive asymmetries and target asymmetries on nuclear burn symmetry and yield in direct-drive, inertial-confinement-fusion experiments. The fusion yield decreased quickly as the burn region became asymmetric due to either drive or capsule asymmetry. Furthermore, measurements and analytic scaling are used to predict how intentionally asymmetric capsule shells could improve performance by compensating for drive asymmetry when it cannot be avoided (such as with indirect drive or with polar direct drive).

Why CMV is a candidate for elimination and then eradication.

PubMed

Griffiths, Paul D; Mahungu, Tabitha

2016-07-01

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is well-known for the end organ diseases (EODs) it causes following viraemic dissemination in immunocompromised hosts. These are termed the direct effects of CMV, where a diagnosis can be made in an individual patient. In addition, CMV is associated with indirect effects where populations can be seen to be disadvantaged compared to those without CMV. These indirect effects have been described in solid organ transplants, bone marrow transplants, advanced HIV, people admitted to intensive care units, the elderly and the general population. We summarise the evidence that associates CMV with its direct effects following congenital infection, solid organ transplantation, bone marrow transplantation and advanced HIV as well as its indirect effects in all patient populations. We propose that the greatest worldwide burden of CMV comes from its indirect effects. Control of this infection at the population level is being sought through the development of vaccines to control EODs where cost effectiveness is expected. We propose that the financial case for universal immunisation will be enhanced even further by the potential benefits vaccines may produce against the indirect effects of CMV.

Bacterial adaptation to sublethal antibiotic gradients can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities

PubMed Central

Friman, Ville-Petri; Guzman, Laura Melissa; Reuman, Daniel C.; Bell, Thomas

2015-01-01

Antibiotics leak constantly into environments due to widespread use in agriculture and human therapy. Although sublethal concentrations are well known to select for antibiotic-resistant bacteria, little is known about how bacterial evolution cascades through food webs, having indirect effect on species not directly affected by antibiotics (e.g. via population dynamics or pleiotropic effects). Here, we used an experimental evolution approach to test how temporal patterns of antibiotic stress, as well as migration within metapopulations, affect the evolution and ecology of microcosms containing one prey bacterium, one phage and two protist predators. We found that environmental variability, autocorrelation and migration had only subtle effects for population and evolutionary dynamics. However, unexpectedly, bacteria evolved greatest fitness increases to both antibiotics and enemies when the sublethal levels of antibiotics were highest, indicating positive pleiotropy. Crucially, bacterial adaptation cascaded through the food web leading to reduced predator-to-prey abundance ratio, lowered predator community diversity and increased instability of populations. Our results show that the presence of natural enemies can modify and even reverse the effects of antibiotics on bacteria, and that antibiotic selection can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities by having indirect effects on species not directly affected by antibiotics. PMID:25833854

Bacterial adaptation to sublethal antibiotic gradients can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities.

PubMed

Friman, Ville-Petri; Guzman, Laura Melissa; Reuman, Daniel C; Bell, Thomas

2015-05-07

Antibiotics leak constantly into environments due to widespread use in agriculture and human therapy. Although sublethal concentrations are well known to select for antibiotic-resistant bacteria, little is known about how bacterial evolution cascades through food webs, having indirect effect on species not directly affected by antibiotics (e.g. via population dynamics or pleiotropic effects). Here, we used an experimental evolution approach to test how temporal patterns of antibiotic stress, as well as migration within metapopulations, affect the evolution and ecology of microcosms containing one prey bacterium, one phage and two protist predators. We found that environmental variability, autocorrelation and migration had only subtle effects for population and evolutionary dynamics. However, unexpectedly, bacteria evolved greatest fitness increases to both antibiotics and enemies when the sublethal levels of antibiotics were highest, indicating positive pleiotropy. Crucially, bacterial adaptation cascaded through the food web leading to reduced predator-to-prey abundance ratio, lowered predator community diversity and increased instability of populations. Our results show that the presence of natural enemies can modify and even reverse the effects of antibiotics on bacteria, and that antibiotic selection can change the ecological properties of multitrophic microbial communities by having indirect effects on species not directly affected by antibiotics. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Effects of herbicides on Behr's metalmark butterfly, a surrogate species for the endangered butterfly, Lange's metalmark.

PubMed

Stark, John D; Chen, Xue Dong; Johnson, Catherine S

2012-05-01

Lange's metalmark butterfly, Apodemia mormo langei Comstock, is in danger of extinction due to loss of habitat caused by invasive exotic plants which are eliminating its food, naked stem buckwheat. Herbicides are being used to remove invasive weeds from the dunes; however, little is known about the potential effects of herbicides on butterflies. To address this concern we evaluated potential toxic effects of three herbicides on Behr's metalmark, a close relative of Lange's metalmark. First instars were exposed to recommended field rates of triclopyr, sethoxydim, and imazapyr. Life history parameters were recorded after exposure. These herbicides reduced the number of adults that emerged from pupation (24-36%). Each herbicide has a different mode of action. Therefore, we speculate that effects are due to inert ingredients or indirect effects on food plant quality. If these herbicides act the same in A. mormo langei, they may contribute to the decline of this species. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Meditation and Yoga can Modulate Brain Mechanisms that affect Behavior and Anxiety-A Modern Scientific Perspective

PubMed Central

Krishnakumar, Divya; Hamblin, Michael R; Lakshmanan, Shanmugamurthy

2015-01-01

Meditation and Yoga techniques are receiving increased attention throughout the world, due to the accumulation of evidence based research that proves the direct and indirect benefits of such practices. Based on studies conducted so far, it has been found that the practice of meditation triggers neurotransmitters that modulate psychological disorders such as anxiety. This paper will review the psychological effects of the practice of meditation, the role of neurotransmitters, and studies using EEG and fMRI. PMID:26929928

The Role of Mediators in the Indirect Effects of Religiosity on Therapeutic Compliance in African Migrant HIV-Positive Patients.

PubMed

Mambet Doue, Constance; Roussiau, Nicolas

2016-12-01

This research investigates the indirect effects of religiosity (practice and belief) on therapeutic compliance in 81 HIV-positive patients who are migrants from sub-Saharan Africa (23 men and 58 women). Using analyses of mediation and standard multiple regression, including a resampling procedure by bootstrapping, the role of these mediators (magical-religious beliefs and nonuse of toxic substances) was tested. The results show that, through magical-religious beliefs, religiosity has a negative indirect effect, while with the nonuse of toxic substances, religious practice has a positive indirect effect. Beyond religiosity, the role of mediators is highlighted in the interaction with therapeutic compliance.

Food web modeling of a river ecosystem for risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals: a case study with AQUATOX.

PubMed

Lombardo, Andrea; Franco, Antonio; Pivato, Alberto; Barausse, Alberto

2015-03-01

Conventional approaches to estimating protective ecotoxicological thresholds of chemicals, i.e. predicted no-effect concentrations (PNEC), for an entire ecosystem are based on the use of assessment factors to extrapolate from single-species toxicity data derived in the laboratory to community-level effects on ecosystems. Aquatic food web models may be a useful tool to improve the ecological realism of chemical risk assessment because they enable a more insightful evaluation of the fate and effects of chemicals in dynamic trophic networks. A case study was developed in AQUATOX to simulate the effects of the anionic surfactant linear alkylbenzene sulfonate and the antimicrobial triclosan on a lowland riverine ecosystem. The model was built for a section of the River Thames (UK), for which detailed ecological surveys were available, allowing for a quantification of energy flows through the whole ecosystem. A control scenario was successfully calibrated for a simulation period of one year, and tested for stability over six years. Then, the model ecosystem was perturbed with varying inputs of the two chemicals. Simulations showed that both chemicals rapidly approach steady-state, with internal concentrations in line with the input bioconcentration factors throughout the year. At realistic environmental concentrations, both chemicals have insignificant effects on biomass trends. At hypothetical higher concentrations, direct and indirect effects of chemicals on the ecosystem dynamics emerged from the simulations. Indirect effects due to competition for food sources and predation can lead to responses in biomass density of the same magnitude as those caused by direct toxicity. Indirect effects can both exacerbate or compensate for direct toxicity. Uncertainties in key model assumptions are high as the validation of perturbed simulations remains extremely challenging. Nevertheless, the study is a step towards the development of realistic ecological scenarios and their potential use in prospective risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Greenhouse gas emissions for refrigerant choices in room air conditioner units.

PubMed

Galka, Michael D; Lownsbury, James M; Blowers, Paul

2012-12-04

In this work, potential replacement refrigerants for window-mounted room air conditioners (RACs) in the U.S. have been evaluated using a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis. CO(2)-equivalent emissions for several hydrofluoroethers (HFEs) and other potential replacements were compared to the most widely used refrigerants today. Included in this comparison are pure refrigerants that make up a number of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) mixtures, pure hydrocarbons, and historically used refrigerants such as propane and ammonia. GHG emissions from direct and indirect sources were considered in this thermodynamic analysis. Propylene, dimethyl ether, ammonia, R-152a, propane, and HFE-152a all performed effectively in a 1 ton window unit and produced slightly lower emissions than the currently used R-22 and R-134a. The results suggest that regulation of HFCs in this application would have some effect on reducing emissions since end-of-life emissions remain at 55% of total refrigerant charge despite EPA regulations that mandate 80% recovery. Even so, offsite emissions due to energy generation dominate over direct GHG emissions and all the refrigerants perform similarly in totals of indirect GHG emissions.

How to minimize ischemic complication related to swollen temporalis muscle following indirect revascularization surgery in moyamoya disease: a technical report.

PubMed

Joo, Sung Pil; Kim, Tae Sun; Moon, Hyung Sik

2014-05-01

There are several reports in the literature of postoperative ischemic events due to swelling of the temporalis muscle after indirect revascularization surgery. Here, we report our surgical technique for preventing ischemic events during the acute postoperative recovery period in moyamoya patients. We used various types of titanium mesh to cover the bony defect area in 8 patients (10 operations) with moyamoya disease. The mesh was cut and manipulated according to the shape of the bony defect. Surgical results were favorable, with no newly developed ischemic event or infarction in the acute recovery period. The mesh formed an outer table of skull, so there was no compressive effect on the temporalis muscle and no cosmetic defects. The titanium mesh appears to be effective and useful for prevention of ischemic insult in the treatment of moyamoya disease. The choice of this procedure depends on both the operative findings of temporalis muscle thickness and the status of ischemic vulnerability of moyamoya brain. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Work overload, burnout, and psychological ill-health symptoms: a three-wave mediation model of the employee health impairment process.

PubMed

de Beer, Leon T; Pienaar, Jaco; Rothmann, Sebastiaan

2016-07-01

The study reported here investigated the causal relationships in the health impairment process of employee well-being, and the mediating role of burnout in the relationship between work overload and psychological ill-health symptoms, over time. The research is deemed important due to the need for longitudinal evidence of the health impairment process of employee well-being over three waves of data. A quantitative survey design was followed. Participants constituted a longitudinal sample of 370 participants, at three time points, after attrition. Descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling methods were implemented. Work overload at time one predicted burnout at time two, and burnout at time two predicted psychological ill-health symptoms at time three. Indirect effects were found between work overload time one and psychological ill-health symptoms time three via burnout time two, and also between burnout time one and psychological ill-health symptoms time three, via burnout time two. The results provided supportive evidence for an "indirect-only" mediation effect, for burnout's causal mediation mechanism in the health impairment process between work overload and psychological ill-health symptoms.

Zoonotic ectopic fascioliasis: review and discussion.

PubMed

Rashed, Amr A; Khalil, Hazem H M; Morsy, Ayman T A

2010-12-01

Ectopic fascioliasis (EF) has direct and indirect effects on both humans and animals. The phenomenon of EF was individual cases in the period from 1950 up to the end of last century. From the period of 2000 up to 2006, plenty of researches were on EF in the developed and undeveloped countries. Nineteen EF cases infected with the immature and few with the mature worms were 13 females and 6 males. Three cases of lymphatic, pleural and breast fascioliasis reached the adults and laid their eggs in a lymph node in the cervical region pleural cavity and breast tissues. Until recent, knowledge about the ectopic fascioliasis pathway is little. Fasciola hepatica was the commonest species in most cases. The effect of fascioliasis might be direct to liver as ectopic foci or indirect on other organs due to the metabolites and secretory excretory products. All ages and both sexes were EF infected. Watercress topped the list of water plants born encysted metacercariae followed by lettuce, mint, and alfalfa. Nearly 24 million Egyptians at risk and about 800,000 were infected. On the global scale, about 180 million are at risk of infection.

Temporary Blinding Limits versus Maximum Permissible Exposure - A Paradigm Change in Risk Assessment for Visible Optical Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reidenbach, Hans-Dieter

Safety considerations in the field of laser radiation have traditionally been restricted to maximum permissible exposure levels defined as a function of wavelength and exposure duration. But in Europe according to the European Directive 2006/25/EC on artificial optical radiation the employer has to include in his risk assessment indirect effects from temporary blinding. Whereas sufficient knowledge on various deterministic risks exists, only sparse quantitative data is available for the impairment of visual functions due to temporary blinding from visible optical radiation. The consideration of indirect effects corresponds to a paradigm change in risk assessment when situations have to be treated, where intrabeam viewing of low-power laser radiation is likely or other non-coherent visible radiation might influence certain visual tasks. In order to obtain a sufficient basis for the assessment of certain situations, investigations of the functional relationships between wavelength, exposure time and optical power and the resulting interference on visual functions have been performed and the results are reported. The duration of a visual disturbance is thus predictable. In addition, preliminary information on protective measures is given.

Magnitude of finite-nucleus-size effects in relativistic density functional computations of indirect NMR nuclear spin-spin coupling constants.

PubMed

Autschbach, Jochen

2009-09-14

A spherical Gaussian nuclear charge distribution model has been implemented for spin-free (scalar) and two-component (spin-orbit) relativistic density functional calculations of indirect NMR nuclear spin-spin coupling (J-coupling) constants. The finite nuclear volume effects on the hyperfine integrals are quite pronounced and as a consequence they noticeably alter coupling constants involving heavy NMR nuclei such as W, Pt, Hg, Tl, and Pb. Typically, the isotropic J-couplings are reduced in magnitude by about 10 to 15 % for couplings between one of the heaviest NMR nuclei and a light atomic ligand, and even more so for couplings between two heavy atoms. For a subset of the systems studied, viz. the Hg atom, Hg(2) (2+), and Tl--X where X=Br, I, the basis set convergence of the hyperfine integrals and the coupling constants was monitored. For the Hg atom, numerical and basis set calculations of the electron density and the 1s and 6s orbital hyperfine integrals are directly compared. The coupling anisotropies of TlBr and TlI increase by about 2 % due to finite-nucleus effects.

Musical Agency during Physical Exercise Decreases Pain.

PubMed

Fritz, Thomas H; Bowling, Daniel L; Contier, Oliver; Grant, Joshua; Schneider, Lydia; Lederer, Annette; Höer, Felicia; Busch, Eric; Villringer, Arno

2017-01-01

Objectives: When physical exercise is systematically coupled to music production, exercisers experience improvements in mood, reductions in perceived effort, and enhanced muscular efficiency. The physiology underlying these positive effects remains unknown. Here we approached the investigation of how such musical agency may stimulate the release of endogenous opioids indirectly with a pain threshold paradigm. Design: In a cross-over design we tested the opioid-hypothesis with an indirect measure, comparing the pain tolerance of 22 participants following exercise with or without musical agency. Method: Physical exercise was coupled to music by integrating weight-training machines with sensors that control music-synthesis in real time. Pain tolerance was measured as withdrawal time in a cold pressor test. Results: On average, participants tolerated cold pain for ~5 s longer following exercise sessions with musical agency. Musical agency explained 25% of the variance in cold pressor test withdrawal times after factoring out individual differences in general pain sensitivity. Conclusions: This result demonstrates a substantial pain reducing effect of musical agency in combination with physical exercise, probably due to stimulation of endogenous opioid mechanisms. This has implications for exercise endurance, both in sports and a multitude of rehabilitative therapies in which physical exercise is effective but painful.

Musical Agency during Physical Exercise Decreases Pain

PubMed Central

Fritz, Thomas H.; Bowling, Daniel L.; Contier, Oliver; Grant, Joshua; Schneider, Lydia; Lederer, Annette; Höer, Felicia; Busch, Eric; Villringer, Arno

2018-01-01

Objectives: When physical exercise is systematically coupled to music production, exercisers experience improvements in mood, reductions in perceived effort, and enhanced muscular efficiency. The physiology underlying these positive effects remains unknown. Here we approached the investigation of how such musical agency may stimulate the release of endogenous opioids indirectly with a pain threshold paradigm. Design: In a cross-over design we tested the opioid-hypothesis with an indirect measure, comparing the pain tolerance of 22 participants following exercise with or without musical agency. Method: Physical exercise was coupled to music by integrating weight-training machines with sensors that control music-synthesis in real time. Pain tolerance was measured as withdrawal time in a cold pressor test. Results: On average, participants tolerated cold pain for ~5 s longer following exercise sessions with musical agency. Musical agency explained 25% of the variance in cold pressor test withdrawal times after factoring out individual differences in general pain sensitivity. Conclusions: This result demonstrates a substantial pain reducing effect of musical agency in combination with physical exercise, probably due to stimulation of endogenous opioid mechanisms. This has implications for exercise endurance, both in sports and a multitude of rehabilitative therapies in which physical exercise is effective but painful. PMID:29387030

The economic costs of alcohol consumption in Thailand, 2006

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background There is evidence that the adverse consequences of alcohol impose a substantial economic burden on societies worldwide. Given the lack of generalizability of study results across different settings, many attempts have been made to estimate the economic costs of alcohol for various settings; however, these have mostly been confined to industrialized countries. To our knowledge, there are a very limited number of well-designed studies which estimate the economic costs of alcohol consumption in developing countries, including Thailand. Therefore, this study aims to estimate these economic costs, in Thailand, 2006. Methods This is a prevalence-based, cost-of-illness study. The estimated costs in this study included both direct and indirect costs. Direct costs included health care costs, costs of law enforcement, and costs of property damage due to road-traffic accidents. Indirect costs included costs of productivity loss due to premature mortality, and costs of reduced productivity due to absenteeism and presenteeism (reduced on-the-job productivity). Results The total economic cost of alcohol consumption in Thailand in 2006 was estimated at 156,105.4 million baht (9,627 million US$ PPP) or about 1.99% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Indirect costs outweigh direct costs, representing 96% of the total cost. The largest cost attributable to alcohol consumption is that of productivity loss due to premature mortality (104,128 million baht/6,422 million US$ PPP), followed by cost of productivity loss due to reduced productivity (45,464.6 million baht/2,804 million US$ PPP), health care cost (5,491.2 million baht/339 million US$ PPP), cost of property damage as a result of road traffic accidents (779.4 million baht/48 million US$ PPP), and cost of law enforcement (242.4 million baht/15 million US$ PPP), respectively. The results from the sensitivity analysis revealed that the cost ranges from 115,160.4 million baht to 214,053.0 million baht (7,102.1 - 13,201 million US$ PPP) depending on the methods and assumptions employed. Conclusions Alcohol imposes a substantial economic burden on Thai society, and according to these findings, the Thai government needs to pay significantly more attention to implementing more effective alcohol policies/interventions in order to reduce the negative consequences associated with alcohol. PMID:20534112

The economic costs of alcohol consumption in Thailand, 2006.

PubMed

Thavorncharoensap, Montarat; Teerawattananon, Yot; Yothasamut, Jomkwan; Lertpitakpong, Chanida; Thitiboonsuwan, Khannika; Neramitpitagkul, Prapag; Chaikledkaew, Usa

2010-06-09

There is evidence that the adverse consequences of alcohol impose a substantial economic burden on societies worldwide. Given the lack of generalizability of study results across different settings, many attempts have been made to estimate the economic costs of alcohol for various settings; however, these have mostly been confined to industrialized countries. To our knowledge, there are a very limited number of well-designed studies which estimate the economic costs of alcohol consumption in developing countries, including Thailand. Therefore, this study aims to estimate these economic costs, in Thailand, 2006. This is a prevalence-based, cost-of-illness study. The estimated costs in this study included both direct and indirect costs. Direct costs included health care costs, costs of law enforcement, and costs of property damage due to road-traffic accidents. Indirect costs included costs of productivity loss due to premature mortality, and costs of reduced productivity due to absenteeism and presenteeism (reduced on-the-job productivity). The total economic cost of alcohol consumption in Thailand in 2006 was estimated at 156,105.4 million baht (9,627 million US$ PPP) or about 1.99% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Indirect costs outweigh direct costs, representing 96% of the total cost. The largest cost attributable to alcohol consumption is that of productivity loss due to premature mortality (104,128 million baht/6,422 million US$ PPP), followed by cost of productivity loss due to reduced productivity (45,464.6 million baht/2,804 million US$ PPP), health care cost (5,491.2 million baht/339 million US$ PPP), cost of property damage as a result of road traffic accidents (779.4 million baht/48 million US$ PPP), and cost of law enforcement (242.4 million baht/15 million US$ PPP), respectively. The results from the sensitivity analysis revealed that the cost ranges from 115,160.4 million baht to 214,053.0 million baht (7,102.1 - 13,201 million US$ PPP) depending on the methods and assumptions employed. Alcohol imposes a substantial economic burden on Thai society, and according to these findings, the Thai government needs to pay significantly more attention to implementing more effective alcohol policies/interventions in order to reduce the negative consequences associated with alcohol.

Direct and indirect effects of wastewater use and herd environment on the occurrence of animal diseases and animal health in Pakistan.

PubMed

Elahi, Ehsan; Zhang, Liqin; Abid, Muhammad; Javed, Muhammad Tariq; Xinru, Han

2017-03-01

The use of wastewater for rearing domestic animals is a common phenomenon in most of the developing countries like Pakistan that face a serious shortage of freshwater resources. However, most of the literature has only focused on the indirect effects of wastewater use on animal health or productivity, and literature on the direct effects of wastewater use is rare. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the direct and indirect effects of wastewater usage on the prevalence of animal diseases and animal health in Pakistan. The study is based on a household-level survey of 360 domestic water buffalo herds collected from 12 districts of Punjab Province, Pakistan. We tested the prevalence of the animal's diseases, animal's health, and wastewater-use preference with various econometric tools, such as the Poisson, negative binomial, and logistic regressions. The findings of the study show that the majority of the farmers use wastewater for buffalo bathing due to the shortage of freshwater resources. Results explore the prevalence of diseases such as clinical mastitis, tick infestation, and foot and mouth disease at the farm level significantly associated with buffalo bathing in the wastewater. Moreover, bathing in wastewater pre- and post-milking also plays a role in the occurrence of diseases. Particularly, if the buffalo's access to wastewater for bathing is within 60 min after milking, the probability of the animals being exposed to mastitis is higher. Furthermore, on investigation, a number of factors are found, such as the distance to the water source, power shortage, groundwater availability, and the education of farmers that influence farmers' behavior of letting their animals take a bath in wastewater. Moreover, the use of different preventive measures improves the animal's health.

Assessment of the first indirect radiative effect of ammonium-sulfate-nitrate aerosols in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xiao; Zhang, Meigen; Skorokhod, Andrei

2017-11-01

A physically based cloud nucleation parameterization was introduced into an optical properties/radiative transfer module incorporated with the off-line air quality modeling system Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)-Models-3 Community Multi Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) to investigate the distribution features of the first indirect radiative effects of sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium-sulfate-nitrate (ASN) over East Asia for the years of 2005, 2010, and 2013. The relationship between aerosol particles and cloud droplet number concentration could be properly described by this parameterization because the simulated cloud fraction and cloud liquid water path were generally reliable compared with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieved data. Simulation results showed that the strong effect of indirect forcing was mainly concentrated in Southeast China, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Sea of Japan. The highest indirect radiative forcing of ASN reached -3.47 W m-2 over Southeast China and was obviously larger than the global mean of the indirect forcing of all anthropogenic aerosols. In addition, sulfate provided about half of the contribution to the ASN indirect forcing effect. However, the effect caused by nitrate was weak because the mass burden of nitrate was very low during summer, whereas the cloud fraction was the highest. The analysis indicated that even though the interannual variation of indirect forcing magnitude generally followed the trend of aerosol mass burden from 2005 to 2013, the cloud fraction was an important factor that determined the distribution pattern of indirect forcing. The heaviest aerosol loading in North China did not cause a strong radiative effect because of the low cloud fraction over this region.

Non-Rigid Earth Contributions to the Precession in Longitude and Indirect Effects on Nutations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrandiz, J. M.; Escapa, A.; Baenas, T.; Getino, J.

2016-12-01

Precession in longitude is affected by the internal structure of the Earth. Although this effect is small, typically described as of second-order, it must be considered in current precession theories due to the stringent accuracy and consistency requirements. The current IAU2006 precession theory is based on Capitaine at al. (2003, 2005). The influence of the Earth's geophysical model is taken into account in IAU2006 only through a sole contribution, the so-called "non-linear effect" computed by Mathews (2004). In elastic Earth models the contributions are twofold. A main part comes from 2nd order terms of the mathematical solution stemming from crossed influences of certain nutation-rising terms. Only the Hamiltonian theory of the non-rigid Earth has succeeded in deriving a solution for those terms so far, and they were not considered in IAU2006 precession theory. Another contributions are caused by geopotential variations resulting from the tidal deformations of the Earth, or redistribution tidal potential. IAU2006 non-linear effect belongs to this category, although it just represents a partial, simplified approach to the total effect (Lambert & Mathews 2006, 2008). The mass redistribution is induced by the gravitational action of Moon and Sun, but also by the tidal variations of the Earth's angular velocity and the resultant changes of the centrifugal potential. We present a comprehensive study of the contributions to the precession in longitude due to the non-rigidity of the Earth, based on the Hamiltonian formalism developed by Getino and Ferrándiz for a two-layer Earth elastic model. To this end, we recall the achievements made by our group recently (Ferrándiz et al 2016, Baenas et al 2016) and complete them by incorporating the contributions due to the tidal variations of the Earth's angular velocity, as well as anelasticity effects consistent with the IERS Conventions. After that, we compute the total final correction to the precession in longitude due to non-rigid Earth contributions, and the associated change of its dynamical ellipticity. This change entails further corrections of the nutation series, known as indirect (Escapa et al. 2016). Both modifications should be taken into account to improve the accuracy and mutual consistency of the IAU2000 and IAU2006 nutation/precession theories.

Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences.

PubMed

Gunderson, Alex R; Tsukimura, Brian; Stillman, Jonathon H

2017-07-01

A major focus of current ecological research is to understand how global change makes species vulnerable to extirpation. To date, mechanistic ecophysiological analyses of global change vulnerability have focused primarily on the direct effects of changing abiotic conditions on whole-organism physiological traits, such as metabolic rate, locomotor performance, cardiac function, and critical thermal limits. However, species do not live in isolation within their physical environments, and direct effects of climate change are likely to be compounded by indirect effects that result from altered interactions with other species, such as competitors and predators. The Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology 2017 Symposium "Indirect Effects of Global Change: From Physiological and Behavioral Mechanisms to Ecological Consequences" was designed to synthesize multiple approaches to investigating the indirect effects of global change by bringing together researchers that study the indirect effects of global change from multiple perspectives across habitat, type of anthropogenic change, and level of biological organization. Our goal in bringing together researchers from different backgrounds was to foster cross-disciplinary insights into the mechanistic bases and higher-order ecological consequences of indirect effects of global change, and to promote collaboration among fields. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Interannual bumble bee abundance is driven by indirect climate effects on floral resource phenology.

PubMed

Ogilvie, Jane E; Griffin, Sean R; Gezon, Zachariah J; Inouye, Brian D; Underwood, Nora; Inouye, David W; Irwin, Rebecca E

2017-12-01

Climate change can influence consumer populations both directly, by affecting survival and reproduction, and indirectly, by altering resources. However, little is known about the relative importance of direct and indirect effects, particularly for species important to ecosystem functioning, like pollinators. We used structural equation modelling to test the importance of direct and indirect (via floral resources) climate effects on the interannual abundance of three subalpine bumble bee species. In addition, we used long-term data to examine how climate and floral resources have changed over time. Over 8 years, bee abundances were driven primarily by the indirect effects of climate on the temporal distribution of floral resources. Over 43 years, aspects of floral phenology changed in ways that indicate species-specific effects on bees. Our study suggests that climate-driven alterations in floral resource phenology can play a critical role in governing bee population responses to global change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Mediating effects of nocturnal blood pressure and morning surge on the contributions of arterial stiffness and sodium intake to morning blood pressure: A path analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Hyung Tak; Park, Jin-Kyu; Choi, Sung Yong; Choi, Bo Youl; Kim, Mi Kyung; Mori, Mari; Yamori, Yukio; Lim, Young Hyo; Shin, Jinho

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the mediating effects of nocturnal blood pressure (BP) and morning surge on the contribution of arterial stiffness and sodium intake to morning BP in a middle-aged general population. The study included 124 subjects aged 30-59 years, from rural Yeoju County, Gyeonggi Province, South Korea. Ambulatory BP monitoring, 24 h urinary sodium excretion (24 h UNa) and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) measurements were performed in all subjects. The mean ± SD age was 48.1 ± 8.2 years and the proportion of male subjects was 41.1%. After adjusting for covariates, morning systolic blood pressure (SBP) was significantly correlated with morning surge [coefficient = 0.761, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.651-0.872, p < 0.001], nocturnal SBP (coefficient = 0.576, 95% CI 0.454-0.698, p < 0.001) and baPWV (coefficient = 3.550, 95% CI 1.447-5.653, p = 0.001). Path analysis modeling revealed that baPWV had significant direct (0.035, p = 0.013) and indirect effects (0.042, p = 0.012) on morning SBP. The indirect effect mediated by nocturnal SBP was statistically significant (0.054, p = 0.005), but the indirect effect mediated by the morning surge was not significant. The 24 h UNa had no significant direct or indirect effects on morning SBP. baPWV had significant direct and indirect effects on morning SBP. The indirect effect was mediated by nocturnal SBP, but not by morning surge. The 24 h UNa had neither significant direct nor indirect effects on morning SBP.

Matrix Determination of Reflectance of Hidden Object via Indirect Photography

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

the hidden object. This thesis provides an alternative method of processing the camera images by modeling the system as a set of transport and...Distribution Function ( BRDF ). Figure 1. Indirect photography with camera field of view dictated by point of illumination. 3 1.3 Research Focus In an...would need to be modeled using radiometric principles. A large amount of the improvement in this process was due to the use of a blind

Videolaryngoscopy versus direct laryngoscopy for tracheal intubation in children (excluding neonates).

PubMed

Abdelgadir, Ibtihal S; Phillips, Robert S; Singh, Davinder; Moncreiff, Michael P; Lumsden, Joanne L

2017-05-24

Direct laryngoscopy is the method currently used for tracheal intubation in children. It occasionally offers unexpectedly poor laryngeal views. Indirect laryngoscopy involves visualizing the vocal cords by means other than obtaining a direct sight, with the potential to improve outcomes. We reviewed the current available literature and performed a meta-analysis to compare direct versus indirect laryngoscopy, or videolaryngoscopy, with regards to efficacy and adverse effects. To assess the efficacy of indirect laryngoscopy, or videolaryngoscopy, versus direct laryngoscopy for intubation of children with regards to intubation time, number of attempts at intubation, and adverse haemodynamic responses to endotracheal intubation. We also assessed other adverse responses to intubation, such as trauma to oral, pharyngeal, and laryngeal structures, and we assessed vocal cord view scores. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and trial registers (www.clinicaltrials.gov and www.controlledtrials) in November 2015. We reran the search in January 2017. We added new studies of potential interest to a list of 'Studies awaiting classification' and will incorporate them into formal review findings during the review update. We performed reference checking and citation searching and contacted the authors of unpublished data to ask for more information. We applied no language restrictions. We included only randomized controlled trials. Participants were children aged 28 days to 18 years. Investigators performed intubations using any type of indirect laryngoscopes, or videolaryngoscopes, versus direct laryngoscopes. We used Cochrane standard methodological procedures. Two review authors independently reviewed titles, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. We included 12 studies (803 children) in this review and meta-analysis. We identified three studies that are awaiting classification and two ongoing studies.Trial results show that a longer intubation time was required when indirect laryngoscopy, or videolaryngoscopy, was used instead of direct laryngoscopy (12 trials; n = 798; mean difference (MD) 5.49 seconds, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37 to 9.60; I 2 = 90%; very low-quality evidence). Researchers found no significant differences between direct and indirect laryngoscopy on assessment of success of the first attempt at intubation (11 trials; n = 749; risk ratio (RR) 0.96, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.02; I 2 = 67%; low-quality evidence) and observed that unsuccessful intubation (five trials; n = 263) was significantly increased in the indirect laryngoscopy, or videolaryngoscopy, group (RR 4.93, 95% CI 1.33 to 18.31; I 2 = 0%; low-quality evidence). Five studies reported the effect of intubation on oxygen saturation (n = 272; very low-quality evidence). Five children had desaturation during intubation: one from the direct laryngoscopy group and four from the indirect laryngoscopy, or videolaryngoscopy, group.Two studies (n = 100) reported other haemodynamic responses to intubation (very low-quality evidence). One study reported a significant increase in heart rate five minutes after intubation in the indirect laryngoscopy group (P = 0.007); the other study found that the heart rate change in the direct laryngoscopy group was significantly less than the heart rate change in the indirect laryngoscopy, or videolaryngoscopy, group (P < 0.001). A total of five studies (n = 244; very low-quality evidence) looked at evidence of trauma resulting from intubation. Investigators reported that only two children from the direct laryngoscopy group had trauma compared with no children in the indirect laryngoscopy, or videolaryngoscopy, group.Use of indirect laryngoscopy, or videolaryngoscopy, improved the percentage of glottic opening (five trials; n = 256). Studies noted no significant difference in Cormack and Lehane score (C&L) grade 1 (three trials; n = 190; RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.21; I 2 = 59%). Evidence suggests that indirect laryngoscopy, or videolaryngoscopy, leads to prolonged intubation time with an increased rate of intubation failure when compared with direct laryngoscopy (very low-quality evidence due to imprecision, inconsistency, and study limitations). Review authors had difficulty reaching conclusions on adverse haemodynamic responses and other adverse effects of intubation, as only a few children were reported to have these outcomes. Use of indirect laryngoscopy, or videolaryngoscopy, might lead to improved vocal cord view, but marked heterogeneity between studies made it difficult for review authors to reach conclusions on this outcome.

Climate impact of idealized winter polar mesospheric and stratospheric ozone losses as caused by energetic particle precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meraner, Katharina; Schmidt, Hauke

2018-01-01

Energetic particles enter the polar atmosphere and enhance the production of nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides in the winter stratosphere and mesosphere. Both components are powerful ozone destroyers. Recently, it has been inferred from observations that the direct effect of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) causes significant long-term mesospheric ozone variability. Satellites observe a decrease in mesospheric ozone up to 34 % between EPP maximum and EPP minimum. Stratospheric ozone decreases due to the indirect effect of EPP by about 10-15 % observed by satellite instruments. Here, we analyze the climate impact of winter boreal idealized polar mesospheric and polar stratospheric ozone losses as caused by EPP in the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Using radiative transfer modeling, we find that the radiative forcing of mesospheric ozone loss during polar night is small. Hence, climate effects of mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles seem unlikely. Stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particles warms the winter polar stratosphere and subsequently weakens the polar vortex. However, those changes are small, and few statistically significant changes in surface climate are found.

The Economics of Direct versus Indirect Cost Recovery in Sponsored Research. AIR Annual 1984 Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kutina, Kenneth L.; And Others

The effect of reduced reimbursements by the federal government for indirect research costs was analyzed for the typical academic medical center. The effects of simply cutting indirect cost reimbursement were contrasted with the impact of securing compensating levels of increased direct project support. To determine if the consequences differed as…

[Disability Pension and Productivity Loss in Schizophrenia - An Empirical Analysis of the Financial Burden in Germany].

PubMed

Kortmann, Lisa-Maria; Müller, Dirk; Simic, Dusan; Civello, Daniele; Stock, Stephanie

2017-03-01

Objective Quantification of the economic burden for society and the German Statutory Pension Insurance due to early retirement in schizophrenia. Methods Based on empirical data of the German Statutory Pension Insurance, productivity losses were calculated using the human capital approach. Results The total expenditures of the German Statutory Pension Insurance due to pension payments for schizophrenic insurants amounted to € 450 million. Total indirect costs due to morbidity and mortality were estimated at € 2,3 million. Average indirect costs per patient ranged between € 17 000 - 28 000, depending on rates for discounting and inflation. Conclusion Regarding substantial economic consequences, preventive measures and therapeutic procedures should aim to prevent reduction in earning capacity and to promote occupational reintegration of schizophrenic patients. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

The effects of temporal perspective on college students' energy drink consumption.

PubMed

Kim, Jarim; Anagondahalli, Deepa

2017-09-01

Consideration of future consequences (CFC) describes the extent to which individuals consider potential future outcomes of their present behaviors. This personality trait has been found to predict repetitive health behaviors. Research is yet to explore the role of health beliefs, which may mediate the relationship between CFC and self-directed health behaviors. Thus, this study examined how CFC affects energy drink-related health beliefs and consumption behavior. A cross-sectional correlational online survey with 1,050 college students was conducted. Key measures include the CFC Scale, health belief measures, and current energy drink consumption pattern. CFC was associated with energy drink consumption as well as several health beliefs. CFC had indirect effects on energy drink consumption through health beliefs, including perceived severity of consuming energy drinks (indirect effect estimate = -.191, 95% confidence interval [CI] [-.271, -.122]), perceived benefits of avoiding energy drinks (indirect effect estimate = -.108, 95% CI [-.174, -.050]), and perceived barriers in abstaining from energy drinks (energy level-related barriers, indirect effect estimate = -.274, 95% CI [-.387, -.181]; and socialization-related barriers, indirect effect estimate = .152, 95% CI [.078, .249]). As the first study to examine CFC's indirect effects on a self-directed health behavior through health beliefs, this study extended CFC's applicability by examining its role in the context of college students' energy drink consumption. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling Stream Temperatures with the Inclusion of Irradiance Change due to Forest Biomass Shifts.

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in stream temperature are directly and indirectly due to solar energy loading levels. Solar radiation is a significant environmental driver that impacts the quality and resilience of terrestrial and aquatic habitats, yet its spatiotemporal variations are complicated to mo...

Direct and indirect effects of episodic frost on plant growth and reproduction in subalpine wildflowers.

PubMed

Pardee, Gabriella L; Inouye, David W; Irwin, Rebecca E

2018-02-01

Frost is an important episodic event that damages plant tissues through the formation of ice crystals at or below freezing temperatures. In montane regions, where climate change is expected to cause earlier snow melt but may not change the last frost-free day of the year, plants that bud earlier might be directly impacted by frost through damage to flower buds and reproductive structures. However, the indirect effects of frost mediated through changes in plant-pollinator interactions have rarely been explored. We examined the direct and pollinator-mediated indirect effects of frost on three wildflower species in southwestern Colorado, USA, Delphinium barbeyi (Ranunculaceae), Erigeron speciosus (Asteraceae), and Polemonium foliosissimum (Polemoniaceae), by simulating moderate (-1 to -5°C) frost events in early spring in plants in situ. Subsequently, we measured plant growth, and upon flowering measured flower morphology and phenology. Throughout the flowering season, we monitored pollinator visitation and collected seeds to measure plant reproduction. We found that frost had species-specific direct and indirect effects. Frost had direct effects on two of the three species. Frost significantly reduced flower size, total flowers produced, and seed production of Erigeron. Furthermore, frost reduced aboveground plant survival and seed production for Polemonium. However, we found no direct effects of frost on Delphinium. When we considered the indirect impacts of frost mediated through changes in pollinator visitation, one species, Erigeron, incurred indirect, negative effects of frost on plant reproduction through changes in floral traits and pollinator visitation, along with direct effects. Overall, we found that flowering plants exhibited species-specific direct and pollinator-mediated indirect responses to frost, thus suggesting that frost may play an important role in affecting plant communities under climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cost-effectiveness of an Evidence-Based Childhood Asthma Intervention in Real-World Primary Care Settings.

PubMed

Dor, Avi; Luo, Qian; Gerstein, Maya Tuchman; Malveaux, Floyd; Mitchell, Herman; Markus, Anne Rossier

We present an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis of an evidence-based childhood asthma intervention (Community Healthcare for Asthma Management and Prevention of Symptoms [CHAMPS]) to usual management of childhood asthma in community health centers. Data used in the analysis include household surveys, Medicaid insurance claims, and community health center expenditure reports. We combined our incremental cost-effectiveness analysis with a difference-in-differences multivariate regression framework. We found that CHAMPS reduced symptom days by 29.75 days per child-year and was cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $28.76 per symptom-free days). Most of the benefits were due to reductions in direct medical costs. Indirect benefits from increased household productivity were relatively small.

Indirect associations of combat exposure with post-deployment physical symptoms in U.S. soldiers: roles of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and insomnia.

PubMed

Quartana, Phillip J; Wilk, Joshua E; Balkin, Thomas J; Hoge, Charles W

2015-05-01

To characterize the indirect associations of combat exposure with post-deployment physical symptoms through shared associations with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and insomnia symptoms. Surveys were administered to a sample of U.S. soldiers (N = 587) three months after a 15-month deployment to Iraq. A multiple indirect effects model was used to characterize direct and indirect associations between combat exposure and physical symptoms. Despite a zero-order correlation between combat exposure and physical symptoms, the multiple indirect effects analysis did not provide evidence of a direct association between these variables. Evidence for a significant indirect association of combat exposure and physical symptoms was observed through PTSD, depression, and insomnia symptoms. In fact, 92% of the total effect of combat exposure on physical symptoms scores was indirect. These findings were evident even after adjusting for the physical injury and relevant demographics. This is the first empirical study to suggest that PTSD, depression and insomnia collectively and independently contribute to the association between combat exposure and post-deployment physical symptoms. Limitations, future research directions, and potential policy implications are discussed. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Probing the Importance of Charge Flux in Force Field Modeling.

PubMed

Sedghamiz, Elaheh; Nagy, Balazs; Jensen, Frank

2017-08-08

We analyze the conformational dependence of atomic charges and molecular dipole moments for a selection of ∼900 conformations of peptide models of the 20 neutral amino acids. Based on a set of reference density functional theory calculations, we partition the changes into effects due to changes in bond distances, bond angles, and torsional angles and into geometry and charge flux contributions. This allows an assessment of the limitations of fixed charge force fields and indications for how to design improved force fields. The torsional degrees of freedom are the main contribution to conformational changes of atomic charges and molecular dipole moments, but indirect effects due to change in bond distances and angles account for ∼25% of the variation. Charge flux effects dominate for changes in bond distances and are also the main component of the variation in bond angles, while they are ∼25% compared to the geometry variations for torsional degrees of freedom. The geometry and charge flux contributions to some extent produce compensating effects.

Direct and indirect effects of different types of microplastics on freshwater prey (Corbicula fluminea) and their predator (Acipenser transmontanus)

PubMed Central

Parnis, J. Mark; Browne, Mark A.; Serrato, Sebastian; Reiner, Eric J.; Robson, Matthew; Young, Thomas; Diamond, Miriam L.; Teh, Swee J.

2017-01-01

We examined whether environmentally relevant concentrations of different types of microplastics, with or without PCBs, directly affect freshwater prey and indirectly affect their predators. Asian clams (Corbicula fluminea) were exposed to environmentally relevant concentrations of polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyethylene, polyvinylchloride (PVC) or polystyrene with and without polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) for 28 days. Their predators, white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus), were exposed to clams from each treatment for 28 days. In both species, we examined bioaccumulation of PCBs and effects (i.e., immunohistochemistry, histology, behavior, condition, mortality) across several levels of biological organization. PCBs were not detected in prey or predator, and thus differences in bioaccumulation of PCBs among polymers and biomagnification in predators could not be measured. One of the main objectives of this study was to test the hypothesis that bioaccumulation of PCBs would differ among polymer types. Because we could not answer this question experimentally, a bioaccumulation model was run and predicted that concentrations of PCBs in clams exposed to polyethylene and polystyrene would be greater than PET and PVC. Observed effects, although subtle, seemed to be due to microplastics rather than PCBs alone. For example, histopathology showed tubular dilation in clams exposed to microplastics with PCBs, with only mild effects in clams exposed to PCBs alone. PMID:29108004

Simultaneous Retrieval of Multiple Aerosol Parameters Using a Multi-Angular Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuo, K.-S.; Weger, R. C.; Welch, R. M.

1997-01-01

Atmospheric aerosol particles, both natural and anthropogenic, are important to the earth's radiative balance through their direct and indirect effects. They scatter the incoming solar radiation (direct effect) and modify the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (indirect effect). Although it has been suggested that aerosols exert a net cooling influence on climate, this effect has received less attention than the radiative forcing due to clouds and greenhouse gases. In order to understand the role that aerosols play in a changing climate, detailed and accurate observations are a prerequisite. The retrieval of aerosol optical properties by satellite remote sensing has proven to be a difficult task. The difficulty results mainly from the tenuous nature and variable composition of aerosols. To date, with single-angle satellite observations, we can only retrieve reliably against dark backgrounds, such as over oceans and dense vegetation. Even then, assumptions must be made concerning the chemical composition of aerosols. In this investigation we examine the feasibility of simultaneous retrieval of multiple aerosol optical parameters using reflectances from a typical set of twelve angles observed by the French POLDER instrument. The retrieved aerosol optical parameters consist of asymmetry factor, single scattering albedo, surface albedo, and optical thickness.

Restricted access Giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, increases faunal diversity through physical engineering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Robert J.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Lamy, Thomas; Kui, Li; Rassweiler, Andrew; Reed, Daniel C.

2018-01-01

Foundation species define the ecosystems they live in, but ecologists have often characterized dominant plants as foundational without supporting evidence. Giant kelp has long been considered a marine foundation species due to its complex structure and high productivity; however, there is little quantitative evidence to evaluate this. Here, we apply structural equation modelling to a 15-year time series of reef community data to evaluate how giant kelp affects the reef community. Although species richness was positively associated with giant kelp biomass, most direct paths did not involve giant kelp. Instead, the foundational qualities of giant kelp were driven mostly by indirect effects attributed to its dominant physical structure and associated engineering influence on the ecosystem, rather than by its use as food by invertebrates and fishes. Giant kelp structure has indirect effects because it shades out understorey algae that compete with sessile invertebrates. When released from competition, sessile species in turn increase the diversity of mobile predators. Sea urchin grazing effects could have been misinterpreted as kelp effects, because sea urchins can overgraze giant kelp, understorey algae and sessile invertebrates alike. Our results confirm the high diversity and biomass associated with kelp forests, but highlight how species interactions and habitat attributes can be misconstrued as direct consequences of a foundation species like giant kelp.

Transpiration directly regulates the emissions of water-soluble short-chained OVOCs.

PubMed

Rissanen, K; Hölttä, T; Bäck, J

2018-04-20

Most plant-based emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are considered mainly temperature dependent. However, certain oxygenated VOCs (OVOCs) have high water solubility; thus, also stomatal conductance could regulate their emissions from shoots. Due to their water solubility and sources in stem and roots, it has also been suggested that their emissions could be affected by transport in xylem sap. Yet, further understanding on the role of transport has been lacking until present. We used shoot-scale long-term dynamic flux data from Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) to analyse the effects of transpiration and transport in xylem sap flow on emissions of three water soluble OVOC: methanol, acetone and acetaldehyde. We found a direct effect of transpiration on the shoot emissions of the three OVOCs. The emissions were best explained by a regression model that combined linear transpiration and exponential temperature effects. In addition, a structural equation model indicated that stomatal conductance affects emissions mainly indirectly, by regulating transpiration. A part of temperature's effect is also indirect. The tight coupling of shoot emissions to transpiration clearly evidences that these OVOCs are transported in xylem sap from their sources in roots and stem to leaves and to ambient air. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Challenges to Stakeholder Participation in Water Reuse for Irrigation in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, Gemma; Potter, Rob; Nortcliff, Stephen

2010-05-01

Developing new water resources continues to be a challenge in water scarce regions and water reuse offers a sustainable means by which water availability can be maximised. In Jordan, treated domestic wastewater (reclaimed water) already provides a valuable contribution to the annual water budget. This resource is used for irrigation either directly around wastewater treatment plants, or indirectly after reclaimed water released from treatment plants has been transferred though natural waterways and blended with surface runoff. Direct reuse is employed for the irrigation of fodder crops such as barley or alfalfa, while indirect reuse is employed for the irrigation of high-value fruit and vegetable crops grown in the Jordan Valley, a major commercial agricultural area. In order to ensure water reuse is conducted successfully, it is essential that the benefits of reclaimed water (water availability, high nutrient content) are maximised while the potential risks (to human health, soil sustainability and agricultural yields) are minimised. Stakeholder participation in water reuse management decisions could raise the capacity of the water user (such as the farmer) to manage the risks without compromising the benefits of this resource. To investigate the extent to which stakeholders are participating in water reuse management, semi-structured interviews with farmers and institutional representatives were conducted in Jordan. A particular aim of the interviews was to explore the variation in participation between those stakeholders using reclaimed water directly and indirectly. The data collected during 56 interviews with Jordanian farmers showed that the farmers' perception and management of reclaimed water varied considerably between the indirect and direct users. The direct users had a greater level of satisfaction with the water (55 per cent of those asked described the water as "good water") and recognised that they were able to produce larger yields and raise their incomes through this resource. Direct users also felt that communication with the managers of the wastewater treatment plant was more effective and this enabled them to influence the final quality of the water they received (for example, through requesting a reduction in the chlorine concentration in the wastewater effluent due to the negative effect that chlorine has on crop quality). The indirect reuse farmers had a lower level of satisfaction with the reclaimed water (69 per cent of those asked described the water quality as bad). The interviews revealed that few farmers felt included in water resource management decisions and felt unable to discuss water quality concerns with government officials responsible for water distribution. The indirect reuse farmers seemed to be more concerned with water quality management at the individual farm level, through the installation of water filters to reduce the organic load of the water rather than through processes of lobbying or participatory involvement in decision-making to raise the quality of the water through top-down measures such as the enforcement of water quality legislation. The interviews with 29 organisational representatives drew attention to the sensitivity surrounding indirect water reuse which seems to inhibit open discussion of the topic. This is likely to be due to the nature of agriculture at the sites of indirect reuse. Institutional representatives appeared to be concerned with the risk of consumer rejection of produce grown with reclaimed water and the associated negative effects of rejection on agricultural income and employment. A strategy of reduced discussion seemed to be adopted in the attempt to minimise the potential for consumer rejection. The present research proposes that this strategy (adopted with the aim of protecting agriculture) could have the reverse effect though inhibiting the participation of farmers in water reuse planning and management (they are unable to take part in a process in which they are not recognised as being involved). Open discussion of reuse is necessary to accurately identify water quality requirements, drive appropriate legislation and subsequently lead to the enforcement of such legislation. This work shows that a major barrier to participation in water reuse management is the stakeholders' fear that consumer concerns over the use of "waste" resources in food production will reduce marketability. The extent of consumer concerns, in conjunction with stakeholders' perceptions of these concerns, is therefore an important area to be addressed in future research.

Excess costs of social anxiety disorder in Germany.

PubMed

Dams, Judith; König, Hans-Helmut; Bleibler, Florian; Hoyer, Jürgen; Wiltink, Jörg; Beutel, Manfred E; Salzer, Simone; Herpertz, Stephan; Willutzki, Ulrike; Strauß, Bernhard; Leibing, Eric; Leichsenring, Falk; Konnopka, Alexander

2017-04-15

Social anxiety disorder is one of the most frequent mental disorders. It is often associated with mental comorbidities and causes a high economic burden. The aim of our analysis was to estimate the excess costs of patients with social anxiety disorder compared to persons without anxiety disorder in Germany. Excess costs of social anxiety disorder were determined by comparing two data sets. Patient data came from the SOPHO-NET study A1 (n=495), whereas data of persons without anxiety disorder originated from a representative phone survey (n=3213) of the general German population. Missing data were handled by "Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations". Both data sets were matched using "Entropy Balancing". Excess costs were calculated from a societal perspective for the year 2014 using general linear regression with a gamma distribution and log-link function. Analyses considered direct costs (in- and outpatient treatment, rehabilitation, and professional and informal care) and indirect costs due to absenteeism from work. Total six-month excess costs amounted to 451€ (95% CI: 199€-703€). Excess costs were mainly caused by indirect excess costs due to absenteeism from work of 317€ (95% CI: 172€-461€), whereas direct excess costs amounted to 134€ (95% CI: 110€-159€). Costs for medication, unemployment and disability pension was not evaluated. Social anxiety disorder was associated with statistically significant excess costs, in particular due to indirect costs. As patients in general are often unaware of their disorder or its severity, awareness should be strengthened. Prevention and early treatment might reduce long-term indirect costs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aerosol indirect effect from turbulence-induced broadening of cloud-droplet size distributions.

PubMed

Chandrakar, Kamal Kant; Cantrell, Will; Chang, Kelken; Ciochetto, David; Niedermeier, Dennis; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Shaw, Raymond A; Yang, Fan

2016-12-13

The influence of aerosol concentration on the cloud-droplet size distribution is investigated in a laboratory chamber that enables turbulent cloud formation through moist convection. The experiments allow steady-state microphysics to be achieved, with aerosol input balanced by cloud-droplet growth and fallout. As aerosol concentration is increased, the cloud-droplet mean diameter decreases, as expected, but the width of the size distribution also decreases sharply. The aerosol input allows for cloud generation in the limiting regimes of fast microphysics ([Formula: see text]) for high aerosol concentration, and slow microphysics ([Formula: see text]) for low aerosol concentration; here, [Formula: see text] is the phase-relaxation time and [Formula: see text] is the turbulence-correlation time. The increase in the width of the droplet size distribution for the low aerosol limit is consistent with larger variability of supersaturation due to the slow microphysical response. A stochastic differential equation for supersaturation predicts that the standard deviation of the squared droplet radius should increase linearly with a system time scale defined as [Formula: see text], and the measurements are in excellent agreement with this finding. The result underscores the importance of droplet size dispersion for aerosol indirect effects: increasing aerosol concentration changes the albedo and suppresses precipitation formation not only through reduction of the mean droplet diameter but also by narrowing of the droplet size distribution due to reduced supersaturation fluctuations. Supersaturation fluctuations in the low aerosol/slow microphysics limit are likely of leading importance for precipitation formation.

The Effect of Direct and Indirect Corrective Feedback on Iranian EFL Learners' Spelling Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ghandi, Maryam; Maghsoudi, Mojtaba

2014-01-01

The aim of the current study was to investigate the impact of indirect corrective feedback on promoting Iranian high school students' spelling accuracy in English (as a foreign language). It compared the effect of direct feedback with indirect feedback on students' written work dictated by their teacher from Chicken Soup for the Mother and…

Direct and indirect effects of glomalin, mycorrhizal hyphae, and roots on aggregate stability in rhizosphere of trifoliate orange.

PubMed

Wu, Qiang-Sheng; Cao, Ming-Qin; Zou, Ying-Ning; He, Xin-hua

2014-07-25

To test direct and indirect effects of glomalin, mycorrhizal hyphae, and roots on aggregate stability, perspex pots separated by 37-μm nylon mesh in the middle were used to form root-free hyphae and root/hyphae chambers, where trifoliate orange (Poncirus trifoliata) seedlings were colonized by Funneliformis mosseae or Paraglomus occultum in the root/hyphae chamber. Both fungal species induced significantly higher plant growth, root total length, easily-extractable glomalin-related soil protein (EE-GRSP) and total GRSP (T-GRSP), and mean weight diameter (an aggregate stability indicator). The Pearson correlation showed that root colonization or soil hyphal length significantly positively correlated with EE-GRSP, difficultly-extractable GRSP (DE-GRSP), T-GRSP, and water-stable aggregates in 2.00-4.00, 0.50-1.00, and 0.25-0.50 mm size fractions. The path analysis indicated that in the root/hyphae chamber, aggregate stability derived from a direct effect of root colonization, EE-GRSP or DE-GRSP. Meanwhile, the direct effect was stronger by EE-GRSP or DE-GRSP than by mycorrhizal colonization. In the root-free hyphae chamber, mycorrhizal-mediated aggregate stability was due to total effect but not direct effect of soil hyphal length, EE-GRSP and T-GRSP. Our results suggest that GRSP among these tested factors may be the primary contributor to aggregate stability in the citrus rhizosphere.

Direct and indirect effects of body weight on adult wages.

PubMed

Han, Euna; Norton, Edward C; Powell, Lisa M

2011-12-01

Previous estimates of the association between body weight and wages in the literature have been conditional on education and occupation. In addition to the effect of current body weight status (body mass index (BMI) or obesity) on wages, this paper examines the indirect effect of body weight status in the late-teenage years on wages operating through education and occupation choice. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 data, for women, we find that a one-unit increase in BMI is directly associated with 1.83% lower hourly wages whereas the indirect BMI wage penalty is not statistically significant. Neither a direct nor an indirect BMI wage penalty is found for men. However, results based on clinical weight classification reveal that the indirect wage penalty occurs to a larger extent at the upper tail of the BMI distribution for both men and women via the pathways of education and occupation outcomes. Late-teen obesity is indirectly associated with 3.5% lower hourly wages for both women and men. These results are important because they imply that the total effect of obesity on wages is significantly larger than has been estimated in previous cross-sectional studies. 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Indirect gonioscopy system for imaging iridocorneal angle of eye

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perinchery, Sandeep M.; Fu, Chan Yiu; Baskaran, Mani; Aung, Tin; Murukeshan, V. M.

2017-08-01

Current clinical optical imaging systems do not provide sufficient structural information of trabecular meshwork (TM) in the iridocorneal angle (ICA) of the eye due to their low resolution. Increase in the intraocular pressure (IOP) can occur due to the abnormalities in TM, which could subsequently lead to glaucoma. Here, we present an indirect gonioscopy based imaging probe with significantly improved visualization of structures in the ICA including TM region, compared to the currently available tools. Imaging quality of the developed system was tested in porcine samples. Improved direct high quality visualization of the TM region through this system can be used for Laser trabeculoplasty, which is a primary treatment of glaucoma. This system is expected to be used complementary to angle photography and gonioscopy.

Indirect costs of absenteeism due to rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, multiple sclerosis, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, and ulcerative colitis in 2012: a study based on real-life data from the Social Insurance Institution in Poland.

PubMed

Malinowski, Krzysztof Piotr; Kawalec, Paweł Piotr; Moćko, Paweł

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to assess the indirect costs of six major autoimmune diseases including seropositive rheumatoid arthritis, other types of rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, multiple sclerosis, Type 1 diabetes, and ulcerative colitis. Relevant data for 2012 on sick leave and short- and long-term work disabilities were obtained from the Social Insurance Institution in Poland. Indirect costs were estimated using the human capital approach based on gross domestic product per capita, gross value added per worker, and gross income per worker in Poland in 2012 and expressed in euro. We recorded data on the total number of 45,500 patients. The total indirect costs were EUR 146,862,569; 353,683,508; and 108,154,271, calculated using gross domestic product, gross value added, and gross income, respectively. Considering only data on absenteeism collected by the Social Insurance Institution in Poland, we can conclude that the selected autoimmune diseases are associated with great indirect costs.

Yes, health is important, but as much for its importance via social life: The direct and indirect effects of health on subjective well-being in chronically ill individuals.

PubMed

Lamu, Admassu N; Olsen, Jan Abel

2018-01-01

There is an increasing evidence that health-related quality of life, income, and social relationships are important to our subjective well-being (SWB). Little is known, however, about the specific indirect pathways that link health to SWB via social relationships and income. On the basis of a unique data set of 7 disease groups from 6 OECD-countries (N = 6,173), we investigate the direct and indirect effects of health on SWB by using structural equation modeling. Three alternative measures of health are used: For generic instruments (EQ-5D-5L; SF-6D), the total indirect effect was stronger (0.226; 0.249) than its direct effect (0.157; 0.205). For the visual analogue scale, the direct effect was stronger (0.322) than its total indirect effect (0.179). Most of the indirect effect of improved health on SWB transmitted through social relationships. The effect via income was small. Nevertheless, the presence of unmeasured confounders may bias the estimates. An important lesson for researchers is to include meaningful items on social relationships when measuring the benefits from improved health. An important lesson for policy makers is that social isolation appears to be more detrimental to overall well-being than ill health. Hence, the Health and Care Services should facilitate social arenas for people with chronic conditions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using indirect covariance spectra to identify artifact responses in unsymmetrical indirect covariance calculated spectra.

PubMed

Martin, Gary E; Hilton, Bruce D; Blinov, Kirill A; Williams, Antony J

2008-02-01

Several groups of authors have reported studies in the areas of indirect and unsymmetrical indirect covariance NMR processing methods. Efforts have recently focused on the use of unsymmetrical indirect covariance processing methods to combine various discrete two-dimensional NMR spectra to afford the equivalent of the much less sensitive hyphenated 2D NMR experiments, for example indirect covariance (icv)-heteronuclear single quantum coherence (HSQC)-COSY and icv-HSQC-nuclear Overhauser effect spectroscopy (NOESY). Alternatively, unsymmetrical indirect covariance processing methods can be used to combine multiple heteronuclear 2D spectra to afford icv-13C-15N HSQC-HMBC correlation spectra. We now report the use of responses contained in indirect covariance processed HSQC spectra as a means for the identification of artifacts in both indirect covariance and unsymmetrical indirect covariance processed 2D NMR spectra. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Structural Equation Modeling Approach to Examining Factors Influencing Outcomes with Cochlear Implant in Mandarin-Speaking Children

PubMed Central

Chen, Yuan; Wong, Lena L. N.; Zhu, Shufeng; Xi, Xin

2015-01-01

Objective To examine the direct and indirect effects of demographical factors on speech perception and vocabulary outcomes of Mandarin-speaking children with cochlear implants (CIs). Methods 115 participants implanted before the age of 5 and who had used CI before 1 to 3 years were evaluated using a battery of speech perception and vocabulary tests. Structural equation modeling was used to test the hypotheses proposed. Results Early implantation significantly contributed to speech perception outcomes while having undergone a hearing aid trial (HAT) before implantation, maternal educational level (MEL), and having undergone universal newborn hearing screening (UNHS) before implantation had indirect effects on speech perception outcomes via their effects on age at implantation. In addition, both age at implantation and MEL had direct and indirect effects on vocabulary skills, while UNHS and HAT had indirect effects on vocabulary outcomes via their effects on age at implantation. Conclusion A number of factors had indirect and direct effects on speech perception and vocabulary outcomes in Mandarin-speaking children with CIs and these factors were not necessarily identical to those reported among their English-speaking counterparts. PMID:26348360

Indirect genetic effects from competition in the clonal herb Sedum album (Crassulaceae).

PubMed

Andersson, Stefan

2014-01-01

Recent years have seen increasing interest in indirect genetic effects, i.e. influences on the phenotype that depend on the genotype of other conspecific individuals; however, the empirical evidence for such effects is still limited, especially in wild plant species. The present study of the clonal herb Sedum album assessed direct and indirect genetic effects on performance-related traits in a 4-year experiment with clonally replicated genotypes, grown in pairs and differing in anthocyanin pigmentation to allow separation of individuals during data collection. In agreement with the existence of indirect genetic effects, the experimentally-paired plants not only expressed their own genotype but were also affected by the genotype of their pair mate. The effect of neighbour genotype explained up to one-fourth of the variation in performance and most likely resulted from competition, imposed by the close physical contact between paired individuals and the limiting conditions used in the garden environment. Indirect genetic effects from competition have the potential to enhance the efficacy of group-level selection relative to individual selection, given the nutrient-poor and spatially-confined substrate available to plants of S. album in the natural habitat.

Sensitive detection of surface- and size-dependent direct and indirect band gap transitions in ferritin.

PubMed

Colton, J S; Erickson, S D; Smith, T J; Watt, R K

2014-04-04

Ferritin is a protein nano-cage that encapsulates minerals inside an 8 nm cavity. Previous band gap measurements on the native mineral, ferrihydrite, have reported gaps as low as 1.0 eV and as high as 2.5-3.5 eV. To resolve this discrepancy we have used optical absorption spectroscopy, a well-established technique for measuring both direct and indirect band gaps. Our studies included controls on the protein nano-cage, ferritin with the native ferrihydrite mineral, and ferritin with reconstituted ferrihydrite cores of different sizes. We report measurements of an indirect band gap for native ferritin of 2.140 ± 0.015 eV (579.7 nm), with a direct transition appearing at 3.053 ± 0.005 eV (406.1 nm). We also see evidence of a defect-related state having a binding energy of 0.220 ± 0.010 eV . Reconstituted ferrihydrite minerals of different sizes were also studied and showed band gap energies which increased with decreasing size due to quantum confinement effects. Molecules that interact with the surface of the mineral core also demonstrated a small influence following trends in ligand field theory, altering the native mineral's band gap up to 0.035 eV.

The genotoxic contribution of wood smoke to indoor respirable suspended particles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boone, P.M.; Rossman, T.G.; Daisey, J.M.

1989-01-01

The effect of wood burning stoves on the genotoxicity of indoor respirable organic matter was investigated for four homes during the winter and spring of 1986. Paired samples, one collected when the stove was not used and one when wood was burned, were extracted with dichloromethane and acetone. Aliquots of the dichloromethane extracts were analyzed with and without metabolic activation using the Microscreen bioassay. The Microscreen is a rapid, sensitive bioassay which measures a broad genotoxic endpoint, {lambda}-prophage induction. Per nanogram of organic material, wood smoke proved to be a major source of indirect (observed with metabolic activation) but notmore » direct genotoxins in homes. The increase in indirect genotoxicity for extracts from aerosol containing wood smoke is probably due to higher concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the wood smoke aerosol as well as other unidentified classes. The direct genotoxicity observed for extracts of aerosol not containing wood smoke decreased with metabolic activation. This direct genotoxicity may be related to cooking activities in the homes. The trends in genotoxicity observed per nanogram of organic material are more pronounced when expressed per m{sup 3} of air due to the higher percentage of extractable material in aerosol containing wood smoke.« less

Cost of nosocomial pneumonia: the example of vancomycin versus linezolid-shorter stay or fewer complications?

PubMed

Rello, Jordi; Bin, Cao

2016-10-01

Hospital and national committees often focus on drug acquisition costs when taking decisions on the use of new drugs, but antimicrobial agent costs represent a minor part of the bill compared with the indirect costs of hospitalization or loss in days of productivity in working people. Although reducing the length of stay should be a main priority in the USA due to the indirect costs associated with hospitalization, adverse events, such as renal failure, have a major impact on healthcare resource use and costs. However, where hospital reimbursement is based on closed budgets, the paradox is that treating more patients due to reductions in length of stay may not be attractive to administrators, because the cost of discharging patients earlier is not compensated by the increase in severity in replacing stays of newer patient admissions. Furthermore, neuropsychological, physical, and immune impairment caused by sepsis has an extreme impact on long-term quality of patient life and health care resource consumption. Future research is warranted to further explore the potential impact of newer therapies for infections and sepsis, taking into account the costs of complications, effects on long-term quality of life, and particularly an international perspective, which requires customization for each national payer's system. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The effect of different spectral shape parameterizations of cloud droplet size distribution on first and second aerosol indirect effects in NACR CAM5 and evaluation with satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Peng, Y.; Xie, X.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

Aerosol cloud interaction continues to constitute one of the most significant uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. The parameterization of cloud droplet size distribution and autoconversion process from large scale cloud to rain can influence the estimation of first and second aerosol indirect effects in global climate models. We design a series of experiments focusing on the microphysical cloud scheme of NCAR CAM5 (Community Atmospheric Model Version 5) in transient historical run with realistic sea surface temperature and sea ice. We investigate the effect of three empirical, two semi-empirical and one analytical expressions for droplet size distribution on cloud properties and explore the statistical relationships between aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and simulated cloud variables, including cloud top droplet effective radius (CDER), cloud optical depth (COD), cloud water path (CWP). We also introduce the droplet spectral shape parameter into the autoconversion process to incorporate the effect of droplet size distribution on second aerosol indirect effect. Three satellite datasets (MODIS Terra/ MODIS Aqua/ AVHRR) are used to evaluate the simulated aerosol indirect effect from the model. Evident CDER decreasing with significant AOT increasing is found in the east coast of China to the North Pacific Ocean and the east coast of USA to the North Atlantic Ocean. Analytical and semi-empirical expressions for spectral shape parameterization show stronger first aerosol indirect effect but weaker second aerosol indirect effect than empirical expressions because of the narrower droplet size distribution.

Inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons of competing interventions: meta-epidemiological study.

PubMed

Song, Fujian; Xiong, Tengbin; Parekh-Bhurke, Sheetal; Loke, Yoon K; Sutton, Alex J; Eastwood, Alison J; Holland, Richard; Chen, Yen-Fu; Glenny, Anne-Marie; Deeks, Jonathan J; Altman, Doug G

2011-08-16

To investigate the agreement between direct and indirect comparisons of competing healthcare interventions. Meta-epidemiological study based on sample of meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. Data sources Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and PubMed. Inclusion criteria Systematic reviews that provided sufficient data for both direct comparison and independent indirect comparisons of two interventions on the basis of a common comparator and in which the odds ratio could be used as the outcome statistic. Inconsistency measured by the difference in the log odds ratio between the direct and indirect methods. The study included 112 independent trial networks (including 1552 trials with 478,775 patients in total) that allowed both direct and indirect comparison of two interventions. Indirect comparison had already been explicitly done in only 13 of the 85 Cochrane reviews included. The inconsistency between the direct and indirect comparison was statistically significant in 16 cases (14%, 95% confidence interval 9% to 22%). The statistically significant inconsistency was associated with fewer trials, subjectively assessed outcomes, and statistically significant effects of treatment in either direct or indirect comparisons. Owing to considerable inconsistency, many (14/39) of the statistically significant effects by direct comparison became non-significant when the direct and indirect estimates were combined. Significant inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons may be more prevalent than previously observed. Direct and indirect estimates should be combined in mixed treatment comparisons only after adequate assessment of the consistency of the evidence.

Inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons of competing interventions: meta-epidemiological study

PubMed Central

Xiong, Tengbin; Parekh-Bhurke, Sheetal; Loke, Yoon K; Sutton, Alex J; Eastwood, Alison J; Holland, Richard; Chen, Yen-Fu; Glenny, Anne-Marie; Deeks, Jonathan J; Altman, Doug G

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate the agreement between direct and indirect comparisons of competing healthcare interventions. Design Meta-epidemiological study based on sample of meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. Data sources Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and PubMed. Inclusion criteria Systematic reviews that provided sufficient data for both direct comparison and independent indirect comparisons of two interventions on the basis of a common comparator and in which the odds ratio could be used as the outcome statistic. Main outcome measure Inconsistency measured by the difference in the log odds ratio between the direct and indirect methods. Results The study included 112 independent trial networks (including 1552 trials with 478 775 patients in total) that allowed both direct and indirect comparison of two interventions. Indirect comparison had already been explicitly done in only 13 of the 85 Cochrane reviews included. The inconsistency between the direct and indirect comparison was statistically significant in 16 cases (14%, 95% confidence interval 9% to 22%). The statistically significant inconsistency was associated with fewer trials, subjectively assessed outcomes, and statistically significant effects of treatment in either direct or indirect comparisons. Owing to considerable inconsistency, many (14/39) of the statistically significant effects by direct comparison became non-significant when the direct and indirect estimates were combined. Conclusions Significant inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons may be more prevalent than previously observed. Direct and indirect estimates should be combined in mixed treatment comparisons only after adequate assessment of the consistency of the evidence. PMID:21846695

Developmental cascade models linking peer victimization, depression, and academic achievement in Chinese children.

PubMed

Liu, Junsheng; Bullock, Amanda; Coplan, Robert J; Chen, Xinyin; Li, Dan; Zhou, Ying

2018-03-01

This study explored the longitudinal relations among peer victimization, depression, and academic achievement in Chinese primary school students. Participants were N = 945 fourth-grade students (485 boys, 460 girls; M age  = 10.16 years, SD = 2 months) attending elementary schools in Shanghai, People's Republic of China. Three waves of data on peer victimization, depression, and academic achievement were collected from peer nominations, self-reports, and school records, respectively. The results indicated that peer victimization had both direct and indirect effects on later depression and academic achievement. Depression also had both direct and indirect negative effects on later academic achievement, but demonstrated only an indirect effect on later peer victimization. Finally, academic achievement had both direct and indirect negative effects on later peer victimization and depression. The findings show that there are cross-cultural similarities and differences in the various transactions that exist among peer victimization, depression, and academic achievement. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Peer victimization directly and indirectly relates to depression and academic achievement. Depression directly and indirectly relates to academic achievement. Academic achievement directly and indirectly relates to depression. What the present study adds? A developmental cascade approach was used to assess the interrelations among peer victimization, depression, and academic achievement. Academic achievement mediates the relation between peer victimization and depression. Depression is related to peer victimization through academic achievement. Academic achievement directly and indirectly relates to peer victimization. Academic achievement is related to depression through peer victimization. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

An invasive herbivore structures plant competitive dynamics.

PubMed

Wong, Lydia; Grainger, Tess Nahanni; Start, Denon; Gilbert, Benjamin

2017-11-01

Species interactions are central to our understanding of ecological communities, but may change rapidly with the introduction of invasive species. Invasive species can alter species interactions and community dynamics directly by having larger detrimental effects on some species than others, or indirectly by changing the ways in which native species compete among themselves. We tested the direct and indirect effects of an invasive aphid herbivore on a native aphid species and two host milkweed species. The invasive aphid caused a 10-fold decrease in native aphid populations, and a 30% increase in plant mortality (direct effects). The invasive aphid also increased the strength of interspecific competition between the two native plant hosts (indirect effects). By investigating the role that indirect effects play in shaping species interactions in native communities, our study highlights an understudied component of species invasions. © 2017 The Author(s).

Economic costs of outbreaks of acute viral gastroenteritis due to norovirus in Catalonia (Spain), 2010-2011.

PubMed

Navas, Encarna; Torner, Nuria; Broner, Sonia; Godoy, Pere; Martínez, Ana; Bartolomé, Rosa; Domínguez, Angela

2015-10-01

To determine the direct and indirect costs of outbreaks of acute viral gastroenteritis (AVG) due to norovirus in closed institutions (hospitals, social health centers or nursing homes) and the community in Catalonia in 2010-11. Information on outbreaks were gathered from the reports made by epidemiological surveillance units. Direct costs (medical visits, hospital stays, drug treatment, sample processing, transport, diagnostic tests, monitoring and control of the outbreaks investigated) and indirect costs (lost productivity due to work absenteeism, caregivers time and working hours lost due to medical visits) were calculated. Twenty-seven outbreaks affecting 816 people in closed institutions and 74 outbreaks affecting 1,940 people in the community were detected. The direct and indirect costs of outbreaks were € 131,997.36 (€ 4,888.79 per outbreak) in closed institutions and € 260,557.16 (€ 3,521.04 per outbreak) in community outbreaks. The cost per case was € 161.76 in outbreaks in closed institutions and € 134.31 in community outbreaks. The main costs were surveillance unit monitoring (€ 116,652.93), laboratory diagnoses (€ 119,950.95), transport of samples (€ 69,970.90), medical visits (€ 25,250.50) and hospitalization (€ 13,400.00). The cost of outbreaks of acute viral gastroenteritis due to norovirus obtained in this study was influenced by the number of people affected and the severity of the outbreak, which determined hospitalizations and work absenteeism. Urgent reporting of outbreaks would allow the implementation of control measures that could reduce the numbers affected and the duration of the illness and thus the costs derived from them.

The Effects of Medicare on Medical Expenditure Risk and Financial Strain†

PubMed Central

Barcellos, Silvia Helena; Jacobson, Mireille

2016-01-01

Medicare offers substantial protection from medical expenditure risk, protection that has increased in recent years. At age 65, out-of-pocket expenditures drop by 33 percent at the mean and 53 percent at the ninety-fifth percentile. Medical-related financial strain, such as difficulty paying bills and collections agency contact, is dramatically reduced. Nonetheless, using a stylized expected utility framework, the gain from reducing out-of-pocket expenditures accounts for only 18 percent of the social costs of financing Medicare. This calculation ignores any direct health benefits from Medicare or any indirect health effects due to reductions in financial stress. PMID:27928462

Using indirect comparisons to compare interventions within a Cochrane review: a tool for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily B; Nguyen, Hiep; Wolf, Fredric M; Inoue, Lurdes Y T

2014-07-01

Assessing relative performance among competing interventions is an important part of comparative effectiveness research. Bayesian indirect comparisons add information to existing Cochrane reviews, such as which intervention is likely to perform best. However, heterogeneity variance priors may influence results and, potentially, clinical guidance. We highlight the features of Bayesian indirect comparisons using a case study of a Cochrane review update in asthma care. The probability that one self-management educational intervention outperforms others is estimated. Simulation studies investigate the effect of heterogeneity variance prior distributions. Results suggest a 55% probability that individual education is best, followed by combination (39%) and group (6%). The intervention with few trials was sensitive to prior distributions. Bayesian indirect comparisons updates of Cochrane reviews are valuable comparative effectiveness research tools.

Syphilis may be a confounding factor, not a causative agent, in syphilitic ALS.

PubMed

Tuk, Bert

2016-01-01

Based upon a review of published clinical observations regarding syphilitic amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), I hypothesize that syphilis is actually a confounding factor, not a causative factor, in syphilitic ALS. Moreover, I propose that the successful treatment of ALS symptoms in patients with syphilitic ALS using penicillin G and hydrocortisone is an indirect consequence of the treatment regimen and is not due to the treatment of syphilis. Specifically, I propose that the observed effect is due to the various pharmacological activities of penicillin G ( e.g ., a GABA receptor antagonist) and/or the multifaceted pharmacological activity of hydrocortisone. The notion that syphilis may be a confounding factor in syphilitic ALS is highly relevant, as it suggests that treating ALS patients with penicillin G and hydrocortisone-regardless of whether they present with syphilitic ALS or non-syphilitic ALS-may be effective at treating this rapidly progressive, highly devastating disease.

Mere exposure effect: A consequence of direct and indirect fluency-preference links.

PubMed

Willems, Sylvie; Van der Linden, Martial

2006-06-01

In three experiments, picture quality between test items was manipulated to examine whether subjects' expectations about the fluency normally associated with these different stimuli might influence the effects of fluency on preference or familiarity-based recognition responses. The results showed that fluency due to pre-exposure influenced responses less when objects were presented with high picture quality, suggesting that attributions of fluency to preference and familiarity are adjusted according to expectations about the different test pictures. However, this expectations influence depended on subjects' awareness of these different quality levels. Indeed, imperceptible differences seemed not to induce expectations about the test item fluency. In this context, fluency due to both picture quality and pre-exposure influenced direct responses. Conversely, obvious, and noticed, differences in test picture quality did no affect responses, suggesting that expectations moderated attributions of fluency only when fluency normally associated with these different stimuli was perceptible but difficult to assess.

Systematic Review of the Indirect Effect of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Dosing Schedules on Pneumococcal Disease and Colonization

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background: To aid decision making for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) use in infant national immunization programs, we summarized the indirect effects of PCV on clinical outcomes among nontargeted age groups. Methods: We systematically reviewed the English literature on infant PCV dosing schedules published from 1994 to 2010 (with ad hoc addition of 2011 articles) for outcomes on children >5 years of age and adults including vaccine-type nasopharyngeal carriage (VT-NP), vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease (VT-IPD) and syndromic pneumonia. Results: Of 12,980 citations reviewed, we identified 21 VT-IPD, 6 VT-NP and 9 pneumonia studies. Of these 36, 21 (58%) included 3 primary doses plus PCV or pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) booster schedule (3+1 or 3+PPV23), 5 (14%) 3+0, 9 (25%) 2+1 and 1 (3%) 2+0. Most (95%) were PCV7 studies. Among observational VT-IPD studies, all schedules (2+1, 3+0 and 3+1) demonstrated reductions in incidence among young adult groups. Among syndromic pneumonia observational studies (2+1, 3+0 and 3+1), only 3+1 schedules showed significant indirect impact. Of 2 VT-NP controlled trials (3+0 and 3+1) and 3 VT-NP observational studies (2+1, 3+1 and 3+PPV23), 3+1 and 3+PPV23 schedules showed significant indirect effect. The 1 study to directly compare between schedules was a VT-NP study (2+0 vs. 2+1), which found no indirect effect on older siblings and parents of vaccinated children with either schedule. Conclusions: Indirect benefit of a 3+1 infant PCV dosing schedule has been demonstrated for VT-IPD, VT-NP and syndromic pneumonia; 2+1 and 3+0 schedules have demonstrated indirect effect only for VT-IPD. The choice of optimal infant PCV schedule is limited by data paucity on indirect effects, especially a lack of head-to-head studies and studies of PCV10 and PCV13. PMID:24336058

Powering up with indirect reciprocity in a large-scale field experiment.

PubMed

Yoeli, Erez; Hoffman, Moshe; Rand, David G; Nowak, Martin A

2013-06-18

A defining aspect of human cooperation is the use of sophisticated indirect reciprocity. We observe others, talk about others, and act accordingly. We help those who help others, and we cooperate expecting that others will cooperate in return. Indirect reciprocity is based on reputation, which spreads by communication. A crucial aspect of indirect reciprocity is observability: reputation effects can support cooperation as long as peoples' actions can be observed by others. In evolutionary models of indirect reciprocity, natural selection favors cooperation when observability is sufficiently high. Complimenting this theoretical work are experiments where observability promotes cooperation among small groups playing games in the laboratory. Until now, however, there has been little evidence of observability's power to promote large-scale cooperation in real world settings. Here we provide such evidence using a field study involving 2413 subjects. We collaborated with a utility company to study participation in a program designed to prevent blackouts. We show that observability triples participation in this public goods game. The effect is over four times larger than offering a $25 monetary incentive, the company's previous policy. Furthermore, as predicted by indirect reciprocity, we provide evidence that reputational concerns are driving our observability effect. In sum, we show how indirect reciprocity can be harnessed to increase cooperation in a relevant, real-world public goods game.

A Climatologically Significant Aerosol Longwave Indirect Effect in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubin, D.; Vogelmann, A.

2006-12-01

Analysis of Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) data from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site confirms a pervasive first indirect effect of aerosols in low-level stratiform clouds, which are the prevailing meteorological condition throughout the Arctic. The AERI longwave emission spectra under clouds of low to moderate optical depth (<8) are sensitive to both the effective droplet radius and the liquid water path, and can be used to retrieve both quantities. When supplemented by additional NSA sensor data, these AERI retrievals reveal a longwave surface flux enhancement of 8.2 Watts per square meter under liquid water clouds subject to aerosol entrainment versus similar clouds in clean air. Of this total enhancement revealed by co-located pyrgeometer data, 3.4 Watts per square meter can be readily attributed to the first indirect effect. This observed indirect effect occurs frequently during spring, but rarely during summer. The indirect effect's manifestation in the longwave is climatologically significant given that this part of the spectrum dominates the radiation budget at high latitudes throughout most of the year. Lubin, D., and A. M. Voglemann, Nature, 439, 453-456 (2006).

Population density of North American elk: effects on plant diversity.

PubMed

Stewart, Kelley M; Bowyer, R Terry; Kie, John G; Dick, Brian L; Ruess, Roger W

2009-08-01

Large, herbivorous mammals have profound effects on ecosystem structure and function and often act as keystone species in ecosystems they inhabit. Density-dependent processes associated with population structure of large mammals may interact with ecosystem functioning to increase or decrease biodiversity, depending on the relationship of herbivore populations relative to the carrying capacity (K) of the ecosystem. We tested for indirect effects of population density of large herbivores on plant species richness and diversity in a montane ecosystem, where increased net aboveground primary productivity (NAPP) in response to low levels of herbivory has been reported. We documented a positive, linear relationship between plant-species diversity and richness with NAPP. Structural equation modeling revealed significant indirect relationships between population density of herbivores, NAPP, and species diversity. We observed an indirect effect of density-dependent processes in large, herbivorous mammals and species diversity of plants through changes in NAPP in this montane ecosystem. Changes in species diversity of plants in response to herbivory may be more indirect in ecosystems with long histories of herbivory. Those subtle or indirect effects of herbivory may have strong effects on ecosystem functioning, but may be overlooked in plant communities that are relatively resilient to herbivory.

Final Report for “Simulating the Arctic Winter Longwave Indirect Effects. A New Parameterization for Frost Flower Aerosol Salt Emissions” (DESC0006679) for 9/15/2011 through 9/14/2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russell, Lynn M.; Somerville, Richard C.J.; Burrows, Susannah

Description of the Project: This project has improved the aerosol formulation in a global climate model by using innovative new field and laboratory observations to develop and implement a novel wind-driven sea ice aerosol flux parameterization. This work fills a critical gap in the understanding of clouds, aerosol, and radiation in polar regions by addressing one of the largest missing particle sources in aerosol-climate modeling. Recent measurements of Arctic organic and inorganic aerosol indicate that the largest source of natural aerosol during the Arctic winter is emitted from crystal structures, known as frost flowers, formed on a newly frozen seamore » ice surface [Shaw et al., 2010]. We have implemented the new parameterization in an updated climate model making it the first capable of investigating how polar natural aerosol-cloud indirect effects relate to this important and previously unrecognized sea ice source. The parameterization is constrained by Arctic ARM in situ cloud and radiation data. The modified climate model has been used to quantify the potential pan-Arctic radiative forcing and aerosol indirect effects due to this missing source. This research supported the work of one postdoc (Li Xu) for two years and contributed to the training and research of an undergraduate student. This research allowed us to establish a collaboration between SIO and PNNL in order to contribute the frost flower parameterization to the new ACME model. One peer-reviewed publications has already resulted from this work, and a manuscript for a second publication has been completed. Additional publications from the PNNL collaboration are expected to follow.« less

Indirect effects of phorid fly parasitoids on the mechanisms of interspecific competition among ants.

PubMed

Morrison, Lloyd W

1999-10-01

Indirect effects, which occur when the impact of one species upon another requires the existence of an intermediary species, are apparently very common and may be of greater magnitude than direct effects. Behaviorally mediated indirect effects occur when one species affects the behavior of a second, which in turn affects how that species interacts with a third. I studied behaviorally mediated indirect effects on the mechanisms of competition in two congeneric fire ant species in the presence and absence of parasitoid phorid flies, which parasitized only one ant species. In observational and experimental field studies, the presence of native Texas phorid flies in the genus Pseudacteon decreased food retrieval by their host, Solenopsis geminata (F.), by as much as 50%. In the presence of phorid flies, many S. geminata workers assumed a stationary, curled defensive posture and did not forage. Although the phorid parasitoids had a relatively large effect on exploitative competition, there was no measurable effect on interference competition. Fierce interspecific aggression was observed between S. geminata and S. invicta Buren, and the presence of phorids had no effect on the outcome of these contests. The indirect effects of Pseudacteon parasitoids on Solenopsis fire ant resource retrieval appear to be larger than the direct effect of mortality. Some aspects of the foraging behavior of these Solenopsis species may be, in part, evolutionary adaptations to phorid parasitoid pressure. Because of the relatively large indirect effects, South American Pseudacteon phorids may be promising biocontrol agents of imported fire ants, S. invicta, in the USA. In a laboratory study, a single South American Pseudacteon female was able to significantly decrease food retrieval rates of a North American population of the imported fire ant, S. invicta.

Individual variation in behavioural plasticity: direct and indirect effects of boldness, exploration and sociability on habituation to predators in lizards.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Prieto, Iñaki; Martín, José; Fernández-Juricic, Esteban

2011-01-22

Little is known about the factors causing variation in behavioural plasticity and the interplay between personality and plasticity. Habituation to predators is a special case of behavioural plasticity. We investigated the direct and indirect effects of boldness, exploration and sociability traits on the habituation ability of Iberian wall lizards, considering exposure and sex effects. Individual boldness was consistent across several non-habituation contexts, but it did not significantly affect habituation. Exploration had a strong direct effect on habituation, with more exploratory individuals being able to habituate faster than less exploratory ones, probably because of their ability to assess risk better. Individual variation in habituation was also affected by sociability, but this was an indirect effect mediated by exposure to the predator. Less social individuals avoided refuges with conspecific cues, increasing exposure to the predator and eventually habituation. Finally, the direct effects of sex (females habituated faster than males) were opposite to its indirect effects through exposure. We conclude that risk assessment, instead of the proactivity-reactivity gradient usually considered in the literature, can affect behavioural plasticity through complex interactions between direct and indirect effects, including exploratory behaviour, degree of exposure to the predator and sex, which represent novel mechanisms generating inter-individual variation in plasticity.

Direct and indirect responses of a freshwater food web to a potent synthetic oestrogen

PubMed Central

Kidd, Karen A.; Paterson, Michael J.; Rennie, Michael D.; Podemski, Cheryl L.; Findlay, Dave L.; Blanchfield, Paul J.; Liber, Karsten

2014-01-01

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in municipal effluents directly affect the sexual development and reproductive success of fishes, but indirect effects on invertebrate prey or fish predators through reduced predation or prey availability, respectively, are unknown. At the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, Canada, a long-term, whole-lake experiment was conducted using a before-after-control-impact design to determine both direct and indirect effects of the synthetic oestrogen used in the birth control pill, 17α-ethynyloestradiol (EE2). Algal, microbial, zooplankton and benthic invertebrate communities showed no declines in abundance during three summers of EE2 additions (5–6 ng l−1), indicating no direct toxic effects. Recruitment of fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) failed, leading to a near-extirpation of this species both 2 years during (young-of-year, YOY) and 2 years following (adults and YOY) EE2 additions. Body condition of male lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and male and female white sucker (Catostomus commersonii) declined before changes in prey abundance, suggesting direct effects of EE2 on this endpoint. Evidence of indirect effects of EE2 was also observed. Increases in zooplankton, Chaoborus, and emerging insects were observed after 2 or 3 years of EE2 additions, strongly suggesting indirect effects mediated through the reduced abundance of several small-bodied fishes. Biomass of top predator lake trout declined by 23–42% during and after EE2 additions, most probably an indirect effect from the loss of its prey species, the fathead minnow and slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus). Our results demonstrate that small-scale studies focusing solely on direct effects are likely to underestimate the true environmental impacts of oestrogens in municipal wastewaters and provide further evidence of the value of whole-ecosystem experiments for understanding indirect effects of EDCs and other aquatic stressors. PMID:25405967

Method for evaluating multiple mediators: mediating effects of smoking and COPD on the association between the CHRNA5-A3 variant and lung cancer risk.

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Spitz, Margaret R; Amos, Christopher I; Wu, Xifeng; Wetter, David W; Cinciripini, Paul M; Shete, Sanjay

2012-01-01

A mediation model explores the direct and indirect effects between an independent variable and a dependent variable by including other variables (or mediators). Mediation analysis has recently been used to dissect the direct and indirect effects of genetic variants on complex diseases using case-control studies. However, bias could arise in the estimations of the genetic variant-mediator association because the presence or absence of the mediator in the study samples is not sampled following the principles of case-control study design. In this case, the mediation analysis using data from case-control studies might lead to biased estimates of coefficients and indirect effects. In this article, we investigated a multiple-mediation model involving a three-path mediating effect through two mediators using case-control study data. We propose an approach to correct bias in coefficients and provide accurate estimates of the specific indirect effects. Our approach can also be used when the original case-control study is frequency matched on one of the mediators. We employed bootstrapping to assess the significance of indirect effects. We conducted simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed approach, and showed that it provides more accurate estimates of the indirect effects as well as the percent mediated than standard regressions. We then applied this approach to study the mediating effects of both smoking and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on the association between the CHRNA5-A3 gene locus and lung cancer risk using data from a lung cancer case-control study. The results showed that the genetic variant influences lung cancer risk indirectly through all three different pathways. The percent of genetic association mediated was 18.3% through smoking alone, 30.2% through COPD alone, and 20.6% through the path including both smoking and COPD, and the total genetic variant-lung cancer association explained by the two mediators was 69.1%.

Food web changes under ocean acidification promote herring larvae survival.

PubMed

Sswat, Michael; Stiasny, Martina H; Taucher, Jan; Algueró-Muñiz, Maria; Bach, Lennart T; Jutfelt, Fredrik; Riebesell, Ulf; Clemmesen, Catriona

2018-05-01

Ocean acidification-the decrease in seawater pH due to rising CO 2 concentrations-has been shown to lower survival in early life stages of fish and, as a consequence, the recruitment of populations including commercially important species. To date, ocean-acidification studies with fish larvae have focused on the direct physiological impacts of elevated CO 2 , but largely ignored the potential effects of ocean acidification on food web interactions. In an in situ mesocosm study on Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) larvae as top predators in a pelagic food web, we account for indirect CO 2 effects on larval survival mediated by changes in food availability. The community was exposed to projected end-of-the-century CO 2 conditions (~760 µatm pCO 2 ) over a period of 113 days. In contrast with laboratory studies that reported a decrease in fish survival, the survival of the herring larvae in situ was significantly enhanced by 19 ± 2%. Analysis of the plankton community dynamics suggested that the herring larvae benefitted from a CO 2 -stimulated increase in primary production. Such indirect effects may counteract the possible direct negative effects of ocean acidification on the survival of fish early life stages. These findings emphasize the need to assess the food web effects of ocean acidification on fish larvae before we can predict even the sign of change in fish recruitment in a high-CO 2 ocean.

Evaluating indirect and direct effects of eco-restoration policy on soil conservation service in Yangtze River Basin.

PubMed

Kong, Lingqiao; Zheng, Hua; Rao, Enming; Xiao, Yi; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Li, Cong

2018-08-01

The conservation impacts of policies that promote large-scale ecological restoration of ecosystem services and socio-economic development are well documented around the world. However, the effect of socio-economic development resulting from such policies on ecosystem services is rarely analysed, although it is important to do so if these policies are to be sustainable. We analysed the socio-economic impacts of soil conservation services from 2000 to 2015 in the Yangtze River Basin under the Grain to Green Programme (GTGP). Also we assessed the driving forces behind the programme: conservation policies, urbanization, agricultural development, and population growth. Our results show that during 2000-2015, cultivated area decreased by 7.5%, urban area increased by 67.5%, forest area increased by 2.1%, and soil erosion was reduced by 19.5%. The programme not only contributed significantly to an improvement in soil conservation services but also enhanced them significantly through faster urbanization. Furthermore, vegetation cover and crop yields increased synergistically, mainly due to high-efficiency agriculture that reduced the negative effect of the GTGP on agricultural production. Overall determining the indirect and direct effects of the GTGP on soil conservation and agricultural production are important for furthering our understanding of the long-term effects of ecological restoration policies, and the present study offers practical insights for ecological restoration of other watersheds. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Costs of epilepsy and cost-driving factors in children, adolescents, and their caregivers in Germany.

PubMed

Riechmann, Janna; Strzelczyk, Adam; Reese, Jens P; Boor, Rainer; Stephani, Ulrich; Langner, Cornelia; Neubauer, Bernd A; Oberman, Bettina; Philippi, Heike; Rochel, Michael; Seeger, Jürgen; Seipelt, Peter; Oertel, Wolfgang H; Dodel, Richard; Rosenow, Felix; Hamer, Hajo M

2015-09-01

To provide first data on the cost of epilepsy and cost-driving factors in children, adolescents, and their caregivers in Germany. A population-based, cross-sectional sample of consecutive children and adolescents with epilepsy was evaluated in the states of Hessen and Schleswig-Holstein (total of 8.796 million inhabitants) in all health care sectors in 2011. Data on socioeconomic status, course of epilepsy, and direct and indirect costs were recorded using patient questionnaires. We collected data from 489 children and adolescents (mean age ± SD 10.4 ± 4.2 years, range 0.5-17.8 years; 264 [54.0%] male) who were treated by neuropediatricians (n = 253; 51.7%), at centers for social pediatrics ("Sozialpaediatrische Zentren," n = 110, 22.5%) and epilepsy centers (n = 126; 25.8%). Total direct costs summed up to €1,619 ± €4,375 per participant and 3-month period. Direct medical costs were due mainly to hospitalization (47.8%, €774 ± €3,595 per 3 months), anticonvulsants (13.2%, €213 ± €363), and ancillary treatment (9.1%, €147 ± €344). The total indirect costs amounted to €1,231 ± €2,830 in mothers and to €83 ± €593 in fathers; 17.4% (n = 85) of mothers and 0.6% (n = 3) of fathers reduced their working hours or quit work because of their child's epilepsy. Independent cost-driving factors were younger age, symptomatic cause, and polytherapy with anticonvulsants. Older age, active epilepsy, symptomatic cause, and polytherapy were independent predictors of higher antiepileptic drug (AED) costs, whereas younger age, longer epilepsy duration, symptomatic cause, disability, and parental depression were independent predictors for higher indirect costs. Treatment of children and adolescents with epilepsy is associated with high direct costs due to frequent inpatient admissions and high indirect costs due to productivity losses in mothers. Direct costs are age-dependent and higher in patients with symptomatic epilepsy and polytherapy. Indirect costs are higher in the presence of a child's disability and parental depression. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 International League Against Epilepsy.

First fossil representatives of Pharaxonothinae Crowson (Coleoptera: Erotylidae): indirect evidence for cycads existence in Baltic amber forest.

PubMed

Alekseev, Vitalii I; Bukejs, Andris

2017-10-19

A new species of Erotylidae, Cycadophila (s. str.) mumia sp. nov., the first fossil representative of the subfamily Pharaxo-nothinae, is described and illustrated from Eocene Baltic amber. A second closely related specimen is reported but not described as new due to poor preservation in amber. The occurrence of representatives of the Recent cycad-specialized genus in Baltic amber can indirectly indicate the presence of their host plants (Cycadales: Cycadophyta: Cycadopsida) in the Eocene amber forest.

Landslide risk analysis: a multi-disciplinary methodological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterlacchini, S.; Frigerio, S.; Giacomelli, P.; Brambilla, M.

2007-11-01

This study describes an analysis carried out within the European community project "ALARM" (Assessment of Landslide Risk and Mitigation in Mountain Areas, 2004) on landslide risk assessment in the municipality of Corvara in Badia, Italy. This mountainous area, located in the central Dolomites (Italian Alps), poses a significant landslide hazard to several man-made and natural objects. Three parameters for determining risk were analysed as an aid to preparedness and mitigation planning: event occurrence probability, elements at risk, and the vulnerability of these elements. Initially, a landslide hazard scenario was defined; this step was followed by the identification of the potential vulnerable elements, by the estimation of the expected physical effects, due to the occurrence of a damaging phenomenon, and by the analysis of social and economic features of the area. Finally, a potential risk scenario was defined, where the relationships between the event, its physical effects, and its economic consequences were investigated. People and public administrators with training and experience in local landsliding and slope processes were involved in each step of the analysis. A "cause-effect" correlation was applied, derived from the "dose-response" equation initially used in the biological sciences and then adapted by economists for the assessment of environmental risks. The relationship was analysed from a physical point of view and the cause (the natural event) was correlated to the physical effects, i.e. the aesthetic, functional, and structural damage. An economic evaluation of direct and indirect damage was carried out considering the assets in the affected area (i.e., tourist flows, goods, transport and the effect on other social and economic activities). This study shows the importance of indirect damage, which is as significant as direct damage. The total amount of direct damage was estimated in 8 913 000 €; on the contrary, indirect damage ranged considerably from 2 840 000 to 9 350 000 €, depending on the selected temporal scenario and the expected closing time of the potentially affected structures. The multi-disciplinary approach discussed in this study may assist local decision makers in determining the nature and magnitude of the expected losses due to a dangerous event, which can be anticipated in a given study area, during a specified time period. Besides, a preventive knowledge of the prospective physical effects and economic consequences may help local decision makers to choose the best prevention and mitigation options and to decide how to allocate resources properly, so that potential benefits are maximised at an acceptable cost.

Direct and indirect effects of ionizing radiation on grazer-phytoplankton interactions.

PubMed

Nascimento, Francisco J A; Bradshaw, Clare

2016-05-01

Risk assessment of exposure to radionuclides and radiation does not usually take into account the role of species interactions. We investigated how the transfer of carbon between a primary producer, Raphidocelis subcapitata, and a consumer, Daphnia magna, was affected by acute exposure to gamma radiation. In addition to unexposed controls, different treatments were used where: a) only D. magna (Z treatment); b) only R. subcapitata (P treatment) and c) both D. magna and R. subcapitata (ZP treatment) were exposed to one of three acute doses of gamma radiation (5, 50 and 100 Gy). We then compared differences among treatments for three endpoints: incorporation of carbon by D. magna, D. magna growth and R. subcapitata densities. Carbon incorporation was affected by which combination of species was irradiated and by the radiation dose. Densities of R. subcapitata at the end of the experiment were also affected by which species had been exposed to radiation. Carbon incorporation by D. magna was significantly lower in the Z treatment, indicating reduced grazing, an effect stronger with higher radiation doses, possibly due to direct effects of gamma radiation. Top-down indirect effects of this reduced grazing were also seen as R. subcapitata densities increased in the Z treatment due to decreased herbivory. The opposite pattern was observed in the P treatment where only R. subcapitata was exposed to gamma radiation, while the ZP treatment showed intermediate results for both endpoints. In the P treatments, carbon incorporation by D. magna was significantly higher than in the other treatments, suggesting a higher grazing pressure. This, together with direct effects of gamma radiation on R. subcapitata, probably significantly decreased phytoplankton densities in the P treatment. Our results highlight the importance of taking into account the role of species interactions when assessing the effects of exposure to gamma radiation in aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A strategy for promoting astaxanthin accumulation in Haematococcus pluvialis by 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid application.

PubMed

Lee, Changsu; Choi, Yoon-E; Yun, Yeoung-Sang

2016-10-20

The green algae Haematococcus pluvialis is a freshwater unicellular microalga belonging to Chlorophyceae. It is one of the best natural sources of astaxanthin, a secondary metabolite commonly used as an antioxidant and anti-inflammatory agent. Due to the importance of astaxanthin, various efforts have been made to increase its production. In this study, we attempted to develop a strategy for promoting astaxanthin accumulation in H. pluvialis using 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid (ACC), a precursor of ethylene (normally known as an aging hormone in plants). Our results demonstrated that ACC could enhance the growth of H. pluvialis, thereby promoting astaxanthin accumulation. Therefore, ACC has an indirect influence on astaxanthin production. We further verified the effect of ACC with a direct treatment of ethylene originated from banana peels. These results indicate that ethylene could be applied as an indirect method for enhancing growth and astaxanthin biosynthesis in H. pluvialis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The social inefficiency of regulating indirect land use change due to biofuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanna, Madhu; Wang, Weiwei; Hudiburg, Tara W.; Delucia, Evan H.

2017-06-01

Efforts to reduce the indirect land use change (ILUC) -related carbon emissions caused by biofuels has led to inclusion of an ILUC factor as a part of the carbon intensity of biofuels in a Low Carbon Fuel Standard. While previous research has provided varying estimates of this ILUC factor, there has been no research examining the economic effects and additional carbon savings from including this factor in implementing a Low Carbon Fuel Standard. Here we show that inclusion of an ILUC factor in a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard led to additional abatement of cumulative emissions over 2007-2027 by 1.3 to 2.6% (0.6-1.1 billion mega-grams carbon-dioxide-equivalent (Mg CO2e-1) compared to those without an ILUC factor, depending on the ILUC factors utilized. The welfare cost to the US of this additional abatement ranged from $61 to $187 Mg CO2e-1 and was substantially greater than the social cost of carbon of $50 Mg CO2e-1.

Indirect interactions among tropical tree species through shared rodent seed predators: a novel mechanism of tree species coexistence.

PubMed

Garzon-Lopez, Carol X; Ballesteros-Mejia, Liliana; Ordoñez, Alejandro; Bohlman, Stephanie A; Olff, Han; Jansen, Patrick A

2015-08-01

The coexistence of numerous tree species in tropical forests is commonly explained by negative dependence of recruitment on the conspecific seed and tree density due to specialist natural enemies that attack seeds and seedlings ('Janzen-Connell' effects). Less known is whether guilds of shared seed predators can induce a negative dependence of recruitment on the density of different species of the same plant functional group. We studied 54 plots in tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, with contrasting mature tree densities of three coexisting large seeded tree species with shared seed predators. Levels of seed predation were far better explained by incorporating seed densities of all three focal species than by conspecific seed density alone. Both positive and negative density dependencies were observed for different species combinations. Thus, indirect interactions via shared seed predators can either promote or reduce the coexistence of different plant functional groups in tropical forest. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Facilitation of creative performance by using blue and red accent lighting in work and learning areas.

PubMed

Kombeiz, Olga; Steidle, Anna

2018-03-01

Research has shown that colours influence motivation and cognitive performance. In achievement contexts, red evokes avoidance motivation that hinders creativity, while blue elicits an approach motivation that facilitates creativity. However, due to their position and mode of presentation, colours may convey a different message. Red accent lighting creates a cosy, friendly room atmosphere that may, even in an achievement context, elicit an approach rather than an avoidance motivation. Results (N = 146) showed that both blue and red accent light increased strategic approach motivation compared to white accent light. Moreover, through the heightened approach motivation, colourful accent light indirectly improved creative performance. Implications for future research on colour and practical implications for colour usage are discussed. Practitioner Summary: Designing work environments for creativity is a new topic in ergonomics research and practice. The present study demonstrates indirect effects of coloured accent light on creativity providing interesting possibilities for the design of workplaces for knowledge workers, classrooms and all other rooms in which people work on new ideas.

Rosiglitazone and Fenofibrate Additive Effects on Lipids

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

Metabolic effects of trogiltazone on fructose-induced insulin resistance in the rat,” Diabetes, vol. 43, pp. 1435–1439, 1995. [3] T. P. Ciaraldi...re- mains unclear. It is possible that these agents indirectly alter plasma lipid and lipoprotein levels indirectly by improving insulin sensitivity...induced by TZDs remains unclear. It is possible that these agents indi- rectly alter plasma lipid and lipoprotein levels indirectly by improving insulin

A highway's road-effect zone for desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boarman, W.I.; Sazaki, M.

2006-01-01

Roads and highways can affect populations of animals directly (e.g. due to road mortality) and indirectly (e.g. due to fragmentation of habitat and proliferation of non-native or predatory species). We investigated the effect of roads on threatened desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) populations in the Mojave Desert, California, and attempted to determine the width of the road-effect zone by counting tortoise signs along transects at 0, 400, 800, and 1600 m from the edge of a highway. Mean sign count was 0.2/km at 0 m, 4.2/km at 400 m, 5.7/km at 800 m, and 5.4/km at 1600 m from the highway edge. The differences between all pairs of distances, except 800 and 1600 m, were statistically significant, suggesting that tortoise populations in our study area are depressed in a zone extending at least 400 m from roadways. We speculate that the major cause for this depression zone is road mortality.

Reciprocal Regulation of ERα and ERβ Stability and Activity by Diptoindonesin G.

PubMed

Zhao, Zibo; Wang, Lu; James, Taryn; Jung, Youngeun; Kim, Ikyon; Tan, Renxiang; Hoffmann, F Michael; Xu, Wei

2015-12-17

ERβ is regarded as a "tumor suppressor" in breast cancer due to its anti-proliferative effects. However, unlike ERα, ERβ has not been developed as a therapeutic target in breast cancer due to loss of ERβ in aggressive cancers. In a small-molecule library screen for ERβ stabilizers, we identified Diptoindonesin G (Dip G), which significantly increases ERβ protein stability while decreasing ERα protein levels. Dip G enhances the transcription and anti-proliferative activities of ERβ, while attenuating the transcription and proliferative effects of ERα. Further investigation revealed that instead of targeting ER, Dip G targets the CHIP E3 ubiquitin ligase shared by ERα and ERβ. Thus, Dip G is a dual-functional moiety that reciprocally controls ERα and ERβ protein stability and activities via an indirect mechanism. The ERβ stabilization effects of Dip G may enable the development of ERβ-targeted therapies for human breast cancers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Modeled Comparison of Direct and Food Web-Mediated Impacts of Common Pesticides on Pacific Salmon

PubMed Central

Macneale, Kate H.; Spromberg, Julann A.; Baldwin, David H.; Scholz, Nathaniel L.

2014-01-01

In the western United States, pesticides used in agricultural and urban areas are often detected in streams and rivers that support threatened and endangered Pacific salmon. Although concentrations are rarely high enough to cause direct salmon mortality, they can reach levels sufficient to impair juvenile feeding behavior and limit macroinvertebrate prey abundance. This raises the possibility of direct adverse effects on juvenile salmon health in tandem with indirect effects on salmon growth as a consequence of reduced prey abundance. We modeled the growth of ocean-type Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) at the individual and population scales, investigating insecticides that differ in how long they impair salmon feeding behavior and in how toxic they are to salmon compared to macroinvertebrates. The relative importance of these direct vs. indirect effects depends both on how quickly salmon can recover and on the relative toxicity of an insecticide to salmon and their prey. Model simulations indicate that when exposed to a long-acting organophosphate insecticide that is highly toxic to salmon and invertebrates (e.g., chlorpyrifos), the long-lasting effect on salmon feeding behavior drives the reduction in salmon population growth with reductions in prey abundance having little additional impact. When exposed to short-acting carbamate insecticides at concentrations that salmon recover from quickly but are lethal to invertebrates (e.g., carbaryl), the impacts on salmon populations are due primarily to reductions in their prey. For pesticides like carbaryl, prey sensitivity and how quickly the prey community can recover are particularly important in determining the magnitude of impact on their predators. In considering both indirect and direct effects, we develop a better understanding of potential impacts of a chemical stressor on an endangered species and identify data gaps (e.g., prey recovery rates) that contribute uncertainty to these assessments. PMID:24686837

Direct and indirect effects of exercise on posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms: A longitudinal study.

PubMed

Whitworth, James W; Craft, Lynette L; Dunsiger, Shira I; Ciccolo, Joseph T

2017-11-01

Emerging evidence suggests that exercise may have beneficial effects on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and that this relationship may be indirectly affected by sleep, pain, and alcohol/substance use. The present study examined the longitudinal direct and indirect effects of exercise on PTSD symptoms. A national sample of 182 individuals, screening positive for PTSD, completed online assessments of PTSD symptoms, exercise behavior, psychological distress, sleep quality, and alcohol/substance use at baseline and three-month follow-up. There were direct effects of strenuous intensity exercise on avoidance/numbing (b=-2.18, SE=1.12, p=0.05) and hyperarousal symptoms (b=-1.87, SE=0.82, p=0.03); and direct effects of total exercise on avoidance/numbing symptoms (b=-1.76, SE=0.94, p=0.05). Strenuous intensity exercise was indirectly associated with total PTSD symptoms (ab=-2.53, 95% CI: -5.72 to -0.38), avoidance/numbing (ab=-0.99, 95% CI: -2.43 to -0.05), and hyperarousal symptoms (ab=-0.78, 95% CI: -1.88 to -0.07) through sleep, while total exercise was indirectly associated with total PTSD symptoms through alcohol use (ab=0.32, 95% CI: 0.18-1.42). Findings suggest that exercise has a complex, longitudinal, and beneficial association with PTSD symptoms. Future studies should continue to examine this relationship and any direct and indirect effects exercise may have on PTSD and its related conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Critical analysis of economic tools and economic measurement applied to rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Her, Minyoung; Kavanaugh, Arthur

2012-01-01

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is chronic, progressive systemic inflammatory disease that if uncontrolled may lead to significant joint damage, dysfunction, work disability and other sequelae that result in large economic losses. A rich literature estimating the economic burden of RA, has been intensified recently, driven by costly biologic agents that have had a notable effect improving the outcomes of patients with RA. In order to optimally assess the value of therapies, it is best to take a comprehensive approach, considering all related costs of illness. This includes direct costs (e.g. the costs of the medications themselves and the monitoring required), indirect costs (e.g. loss of productivity, such as employment due to uncontrolled disease) and intangible cost (e.g. effects on pain and quality of life). Indirect costs constitute a substantial part of total cost in the patient with RA. In order to help assess the impact of RA on productivity, various tools for measuring productive loss like absenteeism and presenteeism have been introduced. No single tool reflects the entire spectrum of the productive loss clearly, as other factors such as use of a human capital approach or friction cost approach affect the valuation of productive loss monetarily. Although favourable outcomes are achieved with the use of biologic agents, their higher acquisition costs, as compared to traditional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) remain a barrier to their use. Assessments of the cost effectiveness of novel therapies are critically important, but published results have been contradictory, in some measure due to the heterogeneity of instruments utilised. While the various instruments appear to be valid and reliable, correlations between instruments has been modest, driven by factors such as differences in recall times, attribution and other confounders.

Gene expression allelic imbalance in ovine brown adipose tissue impacts energy homeostasis

PubMed Central

Ghazanfar, Shila; Vuocolo, Tony; Morrison, Janna L.; Nicholas, Lisa M.; McMillen, Isabella C.; Yang, Jean Y. H.; Buckley, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Heritable trait variation within a population of organisms is largely governed by DNA variations that impact gene transcription and protein function. Identifying genetic variants that affect complex functional traits is a primary aim of population genetics studies, especially in the context of human disease and agricultural production traits. The identification of alleles directly altering mRNA expression and thereby biological function is challenging due to difficulty in isolating direct effects of cis-acting genetic variations from indirect trans-acting genetic effects. Allele specific gene expression or allelic imbalance in gene expression (AI) occurring at heterozygous loci provides an opportunity to identify genes directly impacted by cis-acting genetic variants as indirect trans-acting effects equally impact the expression of both alleles. However, the identification of genes showing AI in the context of the expression of all genes remains a challenge due to a variety of technical and statistical issues. The current study focuses on the discovery of genes showing AI using single nucleotide polymorphisms as allelic reporters. By developing a computational and statistical process that addressed multiple analytical challenges, we ranked 5,809 genes for evidence of AI using RNA-Seq data derived from brown adipose tissue samples from a cohort of late gestation fetal lambs and then identified a conservative subgroup of 1,293 genes. Thus, AI was extensive, representing approximately 25% of the tested genes. Genes associated with AI were enriched for multiple Gene Ontology (GO) terms relating to lipid metabolism, mitochondrial function and the extracellular matrix. These functions suggest that cis-acting genetic variations causing AI in the population are preferentially impacting genes involved in energy homeostasis and tissue remodelling. These functions may contribute to production traits likely to be under genetic selection in the population. PMID:28665992

A Structural Model of Depression Based on Interpersonal Relationships: The Mediating Role of Coping Strategies and Loneliness.

PubMed

Majd Ara, Elahe; Talepasand, Siavash; Rezaei, Ali Mohammad

2017-06-01

The present study was conducted with the aim of examining the structural model of interpersonal relationships and depression using coping strategies and loneliness as mediators. Using multistage random sampling, 301 high-school students were selected from Minudasht city, Iran. The participants were aksed to complete the Network of Relationships Inventory (NRI); the Ways of Coping Questionnaire (Lazarus and Folkman); the Children's Loneliness Scale (CLS); and the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (DASS-21). Structural equation modeling was used to examine the pattern of direct and indirect effects. Findings of the present study show that the data are well fitted to the model. The indirect effect of the positive quality of relationships was significant on depression through loneliness. Moreover, the indirect effects of the negative quality of relationships on depression through loneliness and through emotion-focused coping strategies were statistically significant. Although the effect of loneliness and emotion-focused coping strategies on depression was significant, problem-focused coping strategies did not have a significant effect on depression. Additionally, the findings suggested that the indirect effect through loneliness on depression was stronger compared with the indirect effect through emotion-focused coping strategies. The positive or negative quality of interpersonal relationships, loneliness, and emotion-focused coping strategy can significantly predict depression.

The Effect of Flemish Eco-Schools on Student Environmental Knowledge, Attitudes, and Affect

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boeve-de Pauw, Jelle; Van Petegem, Peter

2011-01-01

Eco-schools aim to improve the environment through direct and indirect effects. Direct effects are those that result from the implementation of an environmental management system. Indirect effects are educational gains. The current study examines the effectiveness of eco-schools concerning three student outcomes: (1) environmental knowledge, (2)…

Indirection and computer security.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berg, Michael J.

2011-09-01

The discipline of computer science is built on indirection. David Wheeler famously said, 'All problems in computer science can be solved by another layer of indirection. But that usually will create another problem'. We propose that every computer security vulnerability is yet another problem created by the indirections in system designs and that focusing on the indirections involved is a better way to design, evaluate, and compare security solutions. We are not proposing that indirection be avoided when solving problems, but that understanding the relationships between indirections and vulnerabilities is key to securing computer systems. Using this perspective, we analyzemore » common vulnerabilities that plague our computer systems, consider the effectiveness of currently available security solutions, and propose several new security solutions.« less

Fate of products of degradation processes: consequences for climatic change.

PubMed

Slanina, J; ten Brink, H M; Khlystov, A

1999-03-01

The end products of atmospheric degradation are not only CO2 and H2O but also sulfate and nitrate depending on the chemical composition of the substances which are subject to degradation processes. Atmospheric degradation has thus a direct influence on the radiative balance of the earth not only due to formation of greenhouse gases but also of aerosols. Aerosols of a diameter of 0.1 to 2 micrometer, reflect short wave sunlight very efficiently leading to a radiative forcing which is estimated to be about -0.8 watt per m2 by IPCC. Aerosols also influence the radiative balance by way of cloud formation. If more aerosols are present, clouds are formed with more and smaller droplets and these clouds have a higher albedo and are more stable compared to clouds with larger droplets. Not only sulfate, but also nitrate and polar organic compounds, formed as intermediates in degradation processes, contribute to this direct and indirect aerosol effect. Estimates for the Netherlands indicate a direct effect of -4 watt m-2 and an indirect effect of as large as -5 watt m-2. About one third is caused by sulfates, one third by nitrates and last third by polar organic compounds. This large radiative forcing is obviously non-uniform and depends on local conditions.

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape.

PubMed

Helbig, Manuel; Chasmer, Laura E; Desai, Ankur R; Kljun, Natascha; Quinton, William L; Sonnentag, Oliver

2017-08-01

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw-induced collapse-scar bog ('wetland') expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape-scale net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE LAND ), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEE LAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature- and light-limited NEE LAND of a boreal forest-wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEE LAND (-20 g C m -2 ) and wetland NEE (-24 g C m -2 ) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEE LAND . In contrast, we find non-negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEE LAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light-limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year-round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO 2 uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO 2 uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m -2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m -2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO 2 uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO 2 uptake of boreal forest-wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO 2 sources under continued anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. We conclude that NEE LAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of Poly-Victimization on Adolescent Social Support, Self-Concept, and Psychological Distress.

PubMed

Turner, Heather A; Shattuck, Anne; Finkelhor, David; Hamby, Sherry

2015-06-01

Past research has demonstrated the particularly damaging effects of exposure to multiple forms of victimization, or "poly-victimization," on youth mental health. The primary objective of the present study is to begin to identify the mechanisms that help explain its powerful impact. Analyses are based on two waves of longitudinal data from the National Survey of Children's Exposure to Violence (NatSCEV), conducted in 2008 and 2010, that comprised a telephone sample of 1,186 youth ages 10 to 17. Using structural equation modeling, we examine direct and indirect effects on distress symptoms of increased, decreased, and stable high poly-victimization between Waves 1 and 2 compared to no or low victimization in both waves. Specifically, we consider the extent to which reductions in core psychosocial resources, including family support, peer support, self-esteem, and mastery, mediate the relationship between these poly-victimization conditions and distress. Relative to stable low victimization, both increased poly-victimization and stable high poly-victimization were associated with declines in all four resources. However, only self-esteem and mastery significantly mediated the association between poly-victimization and distress, with mastery showing the strongest effect. Although significant indirect effects were evident, poly-victimization still had a strong direct effect on distress with resource factors controlled. Findings support the hypothesis that the potent effect of poly-victimization on youth mental health is, in part, due to its damaging influence on core psychosocial resources. © The Author(s) 2015.

The relationships among Muslim Uyghur and Kazakh disabled elders' life satisfaction, activity of daily living, and informal family caregiver's burden, depression, and life satisfaction in far western China: A structural equation model.

PubMed

Wang, Wen Ting; He, Bin; Wang, Yu Huan; Wang, Mei Yan; Chen, Xue Feng; Wu, Fu Chen; Yang, Xue

2017-04-01

1 Hypothesis Disabled elders' activities of daily living, caregiver burden, caregiver depression, and caregivers' life satisfaction are significantly related to the life satisfaction of elderly people with disability. 2 Hypothesis There are direct and indirect effects between the life satisfaction of elders, disabled elders' activities of daily living, and family caregivers' factors. This study explored the interrelationships of disabled elders' life satisfaction and activities of daily living, caregivers' factors (burden, depression, and life satisfaction) through a structural equation model. In total, 621 dyads of disabled elders and informal family caregivers completed questionnaires during face-to-face interviews in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region from September 2013 to January 2014. Activity of daily living exerted a direct effect on life satisfaction of disabled elders and 30.4% indirect effect through caregivers' factors. Caregiver burden had a 60.0% direct effect on life satisfaction of disabled elders and a 40.0% indirect effect through the caregiver depression. Caregiver depression showed 76% direct effect on life satisfaction of disabled elders and 24% indirect effect through caregivers' life satisfaction. Direct relationships between activity of daily living and caregiver burden, caregiver burden and caregiver depression, and caregiver depression and caregivers' life satisfaction were observed. Activity of daily living had a 91.3% indirect effect on caregiver depression mediated by caregiver burden; caregiver burden had a 40.0% indirect effect on caregivers' life satisfaction mediated by caregiver depression. Results provide useful information for nurses and policymakers and shed light on the need to consider caregivers' factors in improving care recipients' life satisfaction. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Entrainment, Drizzle, and the Indirect Effect in Stratiform Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Andrew

2005-01-01

Activation of some fraction of increased concentrations of sub-micron soluble aerosol particles lead to enhanced cloud droplet concentrations and hence smaller droplets, increasing their total cross sectional area and thus reflecting solar radiation more efficiently (the Twomey, or first indirect, effect). However, because of competition during condensational growth, droplet distributions tend to broaden as numbers increase, reducing the sensitivity of cloud albedo to droplet concentration on the order of 10%. Also, smaller droplets less effectively produce drizzle through collisions and coalescence, and it is widely expected (and found in large-scale models) that decreased precipitation leads to clouds with more cloud water on average (the so-called cloud lifetime, or second indirect, effect). Much of the uncertainty regarding the overall indirect aerosol effect stems from inadequate understanding of such changes in cloud water. Detailed simulations based on FIRE-I, ASTEX, and DYCOMS-II conditions show that suppression of precipitation from increased droplet concentrations leads to increased cloud water only when sufficient precipitation reaches the surface, a condition favored when the overlying air is-humid or droplet concentrations are very low. Otherwise, aerosol induced suppression of precipitation enhances entrainment of overlying dry air, thereby reducing cloud water and diminishing the indirect climate forcing.

Areas of Potential Impact of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act on EMS: A Synthesis of the Literature.

PubMed

Ostermayer, Daniel G; Brown, Charles A; Fernandez, William G; Couvillon, Emily

2017-04-01

This comprehensive review synthesizes the existing literature on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) as it relates to emergency medical services (EMS) in order to provide guidance for navigating current and future healthcare changes. We conducted a comprehensive review to identify all existing literature related to the ACA and EMS and all sections within the federal law pertaining to EMS. Many changes enacted by the ACA directly affect emergency care with potential indirect effects on EMS systems. New Medicaid enrollees and changes to existing coverage plans may alter EMS transport volumes. Reimbursement changes such as adjustments to the ambulance inflation factor (AIF) alter the yearly increases in EMS reimbursement by incorporating the multifactor productivity value into yearly reimbursement adjustments. New initiatives, funded by the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation are exploring novel and cost-effective prehospital care delivery opportunities while EMS agencies individually explore partnerships with healthcare systems. EMS systems should be aware of the direct and indirect impact of ACA on prehospital care due to the potential for changes in financial reimbursement, acuity and volume changes, and ongoing new care delivery initiatives.

Areas of Potential Impact of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act on EMS: A Synthesis of the Literature

PubMed Central

Ostermayer, Daniel G.; Brown, Charles A.; Fernandez, William G.; Couvillon, Emily

2017-01-01

Introduction This comprehensive review synthesizes the existing literature on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) as it relates to emergency medical services (EMS) in order to provide guidance for navigating current and future healthcare changes. Methods We conducted a comprehensive review to identify all existing literature related to the ACA and EMS and all sections within the federal law pertaining to EMS. Results Many changes enacted by the ACA directly affect emergency care with potential indirect effects on EMS systems. New Medicaid enrollees and changes to existing coverage plans may alter EMS transport volumes. Reimbursement changes such as adjustments to the ambulance inflation factor (AIF) alter the yearly increases in EMS reimbursement by incorporating the multifactor productivity value into yearly reimbursement adjustments. New initiatives, funded by the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation are exploring novel and cost-effective prehospital care delivery opportunities while EMS agencies individually explore partnerships with healthcare systems. Conclusion EMS systems should be aware of the direct and indirect impact of ACA on prehospital care due to the potential for changes in financial reimbursement, acuity and volume changes, and ongoing new care delivery initiatives. PMID:28435495

The Trojan Horse method for nuclear astrophysics: Recent results on resonance reactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cognata, M. La; Pizzone, R. G.; Spitaleri, C.

Nuclear astrophysics aims to measure nuclear-reaction cross sections of astrophysical interest to be included into models to study stellar evolution and nucleosynthesis. Low energies, < 1 MeV or even < 10 keV, are requested for this is the window where these processes are more effective. Two effects have prevented to achieve a satisfactory knowledge of the relevant nuclear processes, namely, the Coulomb barrier exponentially suppressing the cross section and the presence of atomic electrons. These difficulties have triggered theoretical and experimental investigations to extend our knowledge down to astrophysical energies. For instance, indirect techniques such as the Trojan Horse Methodmore » have been devised yielding new cutting-edge results. In particular, I will focus on the application of this indirect method to resonance reactions. Resonances might dramatically enhance the astrophysical S(E)-factor so, when they occur right at astrophysical energies, their measurement is crucial to pin down the astrophysical scenario. Unknown or unpredicted resonances might introduce large systematic errors in nucleosynthesis models. These considerations apply to low-energy resonances and to sub-threshold resonances as well, as they may produce sizable modifications of the S-factor due to, for instance, destructive interference with another resonance.« less

The influence of family-supportive supervisor training on employee job performance and attitudes: An organizational work-family intervention.

PubMed

Odle-Dusseau, Heather N; Hammer, Leslie B; Crain, Tori L; Bodner, Todd E

2016-07-01

Training supervisors to increase their family-supportive supervisor behaviors (FSSB) has demonstrated significant benefits for employee physical health, job satisfaction, and turnover intentions among employees with high levels of family-to-work conflict in prior research in a grocery store context. We replicate and extend these results in a health care setting with additional important employee outcomes (i.e., employee engagement, organizational commitment, and supervisor ratings of job performance), and consider the role of the 4 dimensions underlying the FSSB. Using a quasi-experimental, pretest-posttest design, 143 health care employees completed surveys at 2 time periods approximately 10 months apart, along with their supervisors who provided ratings of employees' job performance. Between these surveys, we offered their supervisors FSSB training; 86 (71%) of these supervisors participated. Results demonstrated significant and beneficial indirect effects of FSSB training on changes in employee job performance, organizational commitment, engagement, job satisfaction, and turnover intentions through changes in employee perceptions of their supervisor's overall FSSBs. Further analyses suggest that these indirect effects are due primarily to changes in the creative work-family management dimension of FSSB. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Strain-induced enhancement of thermoelectric performance of TiS2 monolayer based on first-principles phonon and electron band structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Guanpeng; Yao, Kailun; Gao, Guoying

2018-01-01

Using first-principle calculations combined with Boltzmann transport theory, we investigate the biaxial strain effect on the electronic and phonon thermal transport properties of a 1 T (CdI2-type) structural TiS2 monolayer, a recent experimental two-dimensional (2D) material. It is found that the electronic band structure can be effectively modulated and that the band gap experiences an indirect-direct-indirect transition with increasing tensile strain. The band convergence induced by the tensile strain increases the Seebeck coefficient and the power factor, while the lattice thermal conductivity is decreased under the tensile strain due to the decreasing group velocity and the increasing scattering chances between the acoustic phonon modes and the optical phonon modes, which together greatly increase the thermoelectric performance. The figure of merit can reach 0.95 (0.82) at an 8 percent tensile strain for the p-type (n-type) doping, which is much larger than that without strain. The present work suggests that the TiS2 monolayer is a good candidate for 2D thermoelectric materials, and that biaxial strain is a powerful tool with which to enhance thermoelectric performance.

Strain-induced enhancement of thermoelectric performance of TiS2 monolayer based on first-principles phonon and electron band structures.

PubMed

Li, Guanpeng; Yao, Kailun; Gao, Guoying

2018-01-05

Using first-principle calculations combined with Boltzmann transport theory, we investigate the biaxial strain effect on the electronic and phonon thermal transport properties of a 1 T (CdI 2 -type) structural TiS 2 monolayer, a recent experimental two-dimensional (2D) material. It is found that the electronic band structure can be effectively modulated and that the band gap experiences an indirect-direct-indirect transition with increasing tensile strain. The band convergence induced by the tensile strain increases the Seebeck coefficient and the power factor, while the lattice thermal conductivity is decreased under the tensile strain due to the decreasing group velocity and the increasing scattering chances between the acoustic phonon modes and the optical phonon modes, which together greatly increase the thermoelectric performance. The figure of merit can reach 0.95 (0.82) at an 8 percent tensile strain for the p-type (n-type) doping, which is much larger than that without strain. The present work suggests that the TiS 2 monolayer is a good candidate for 2D thermoelectric materials, and that biaxial strain is a powerful tool with which to enhance thermoelectric performance.

Nonlinear oscillations and waves in multi-species cold plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Prabal Singh

2016-12-01

The spatio-temporal evolution of nonlinear oscillations in multi-species plasma is revisited to provide more insight into the physics of phase mixing by constructing two sets of nonlinear solutions up to the second order. The first solution exhibits perfect oscillations in the linear regime and phase mixing appears only nonlinearly in the second order as a response to the ponderomotive forces. This response can be both direct and indirect. The indirect contribution of the ponderomotive forces appears through self-consistently generated low frequency fields. Furthermore, the direct and indirect contributions of the ponderomotive forces on the phase mixing process is explored and it is found that the indirect contribution is negligible in an electron-ion plasma and it disappears in the case of electron-positron plasma, yet represents an equal contribution in the electron-positron-ion plasma. However, the second solution does not exhibit any phase mixing due to the absence of ponderomotive forces but results in an undistorted nonlinear traveling wave. These investigations have relevance for laboratory/astrophysical multi-species plasma.

Spatial Visualization ability improves with and without studying Technical Drawing.

PubMed

Contreras, María José; Escrig, Rebeca; Prieto, Gerardo; Elosúa, M Rosa

2018-03-27

The results of several studies suggest that spatial ability can be improved through direct training with tasks similar to those integrated in the tests used to measure the ability. However, there is a greater interest in analyzing the effectiveness of indirect training such as games or of learning subjects that involve spatial processes to a certain extent. Thus, the objective of the present study was to analyze whether the indirect training in Technical Drawing improved the Spatial Visualization ability of Architecture students. For this purpose, a group of students enrolled in Fundamentals of Architecture were administered two tests, a Spatial Visualization task and an Abstract Reasoning task, at the beginning and the end of a semester, after having received training through the subjects "Technical Drawing I: Geometry and Perception" and "Projects I." The results of this group were compared with those of a control group of students enrolled in a Mathematics degree, who were also pre-post evaluated but had not received the training in Technical Drawing. The study showed a significant pre-post improvement in both, Visualization and reasoning. However, this improvement occurred in both groups, thereby concluding that this improvement was not due to indirect training. Furthermore, no significant differences were found between men and women in any of the groups or conditions. These results clarify those of an earlier study where improvement in Visualization after training in Technical Drawing was found but did not include a comparison with a control condition. The control condition has proved to be important in order to consider the limitations of the effect of Technical Drawing on said improvement.

High-strain rate tensile characterization of graphite platelet reinforced vinyl ester based nanocomposites using split-Hopkinson pressure bar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pramanik, Brahmananda

The dynamic response of exfoliated graphite nanoplatelet (xGnP) reinforced and carboxyl terminated butadiene nitrile (CTBN) toughened vinyl ester based nanocomposites are characterized under both dynamic tensile and compressive loading. Dynamic direct tensile tests are performed applying the reverse impact Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB) technique. The specimen geometry for tensile test is parametrically optimized by Finite Element Analysis (FEA) using ANSYS Mechanical APDLRTM. Uniform stress distribution within the specimen gage length has been verified using high-speed digital photography. The on-specimen strain gage installation is substituted by a non-contact Laser Occlusion Expansion Gage (LOEG) technique for infinitesimal dynamic tensile strain measurements. Due to very low transmitted pulse signal, an alternative approach based on incident pulse is applied for obtaining the stress-time history. Indirect tensile tests are also performed combining the conventional SHPB technique with Brazilian disk test method for evaluating cylindrical disk specimens. The cylindrical disk specimen is held snugly in between two concave end fixtures attached to the incident and transmission bars. Indirect tensile stress is estimated from the SHPB pulses, and diametrical transverse tensile strain is measured using LOEG. Failure diagnosis using high-speed digital photography validates the viability of utilizing this indirect test method for characterizing the tensile properties of the candidate vinyl ester based nanocomposite system. Also, quasi-static indirect tensile response agrees with previous investigations conducted using the traditional dog-bone specimen in quasi-static direct tensile tests. Investigation of both quasi-static and dynamic indirect tensile test responses show the strain rate effect on the tensile strength and energy absorbing capacity of the candidate materials. Finally, the conventional compressive SHPB tests are performed. It is observed that both strength and energy absorbing capacity of these candidate material systems are distinctively less under dynamic tension than under compressive loading. Nano-reinforcement appears to marginally improve these properties for pure vinyl ester under dynamic tension, although it is found to be detrimental under dynamic compression.

Models for electromagnetic coupling of lightning onto multiconductor cables in underground cavities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, Matthew Benjamin

This dissertation documents the measurements, analytical modeling, and numerical modeling of electromagnetic transfer functions to quantify the ability of cloud-to-ground lightning strokes (including horizontal arc-channel components) to couple electromagnetic energy onto multiconductor cables in an underground cavity. Measurements were performed at the Sago coal mine located near Buckhannon, WV. These transfer functions, coupled with mathematical representations of lightning strokes, are then used to predict electric fields within the mine and induced voltages on a cable that was left abandoned in the sealed area of the Sago mine. If voltages reached high enough levels, electrical arcing could have occurred from the abandoned cable. Electrical arcing is known to be an effective ignition source for explosive gas mixtures. Two coupling mechanisms were measured: direct and indirect drive. Direct coupling results from the injection or induction of lightning current onto metallic conductors such as the conveyors, rails, trolley communications cable, and AC power shields that connect from the outside of the mine to locations deep within the mine. Indirect coupling results from electromagnetic field propagation through the earth as a result of a cloud-to-ground lightning stroke or a long, low-altitude horizontal current channel from a cloud-to-ground stroke. Unlike direct coupling, indirect coupling does not require metallic conductors in a continuous path from the surface to areas internal to the mine. Results from the indirect coupling measurements and analysis are of great concern. The field measurements, modeling, and analysis indicate that significant energy can be coupled directly into the sealed area of the mine. Due to the relatively low frequency content of lightning (< 100 kHz), electromagnetic energy can readily propagate through hundreds of feet of earth. Indirect transfer function measurements compare extremely well with analytical and computational models developed for the Sago site which take into account measured soil properties.

Mean-field modeling of the basal ganglia-thalamocortical system. II Dynamics of parkinsonian oscillations.

PubMed

van Albada, S J; Gray, R T; Drysdale, P M; Robinson, P A

2009-04-21

Neuronal correlates of Parkinson's disease (PD) include a shift to lower frequencies in the electroencephalogram (EEG) and enhanced synchronized oscillations at 3-7 and 7-30 Hz in the basal ganglia, thalamus, and cortex. This study describes the dynamics of a recent physiologically based mean-field model of the basal ganglia-thalamocortical system, and shows how it accounts for many key electrophysiological correlates of PD. Its detailed functional connectivity comprises partially segregated direct and indirect pathways through two populations of striatal neurons, a hyperdirect pathway involving a corticosubthalamic projection, thalamostriatal feedback, and local inhibition in striatum and external pallidum (GPe). In a companion paper, realistic steady-state firing rates were obtained for the healthy state, and after dopamine loss modeled by weaker direct and stronger indirect pathways, reduced intrapallidal inhibition, lower firing thresholds of the GPe and subthalamic nucleus (STN), a stronger projection from striatum to GPe, and weaker cortical interactions. Here it is shown that oscillations around 5 and 20 Hz can arise with a strong indirect pathway, which also causes increased synchronization throughout the basal ganglia. Furthermore, increased theta power with progressive nigrostriatal degeneration is correlated with reduced alpha power and peak frequency, in agreement with empirical results. Unlike the hyperdirect pathway, the indirect pathway sustains oscillations with phase relationships that coincide with those found experimentally. Alterations in the responses of basal ganglia to transient stimuli accord with experimental observations. Reduced cortical gains due to both nigrostriatal and mesocortical dopamine loss lead to slower changes in cortical activity and may be related to bradykinesia. Finally, increased EEG power found in some studies may be partly explained by a lower effective GPe firing threshold, reduced GPe-GPe inhibition, and/or weaker intracortical connections in parkinsonian patients. Strict separation of the direct and indirect pathways is not necessary to obtain these results.

Network meta-analysis combining individual patient and aggregate data from a mixture of study designs with an application to pulmonary arterial hypertension.

PubMed

Thom, Howard H Z; Capkun, Gorana; Cerulli, Annamaria; Nixon, Richard M; Howard, Luke S

2015-04-12

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is a methodology for indirectly comparing, and strengthening direct comparisons of two or more treatments for the management of disease by combining evidence from multiple studies. It is sometimes not possible to perform treatment comparisons as evidence networks restricted to randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be disconnected. We propose a Bayesian NMA model that allows to include single-arm, before-and-after, observational studies to complete these disconnected networks. We illustrate the method with an indirect comparison of treatments for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Our method uses a random effects model for placebo improvements to include single-arm observational studies into a general NMA. Building on recent research for binary outcomes, we develop a covariate-adjusted continuous-outcome NMA model that combines individual patient data (IPD) and aggregate data from two-arm RCTs with the single-arm observational studies. We apply this model to a complex comparison of therapies for PAH combining IPD from a phase-III RCT of imatinib as add-on therapy for PAH and aggregate data from RCTs and single-arm observational studies, both identified by a systematic review. Through the inclusion of observational studies, our method allowed the comparison of imatinib as add-on therapy for PAH with other treatments. This comparison had not been previously possible due to the limited RCT evidence available. However, the credible intervals of our posterior estimates were wide so the overall results were inconclusive. The comparison should be treated as exploratory and should not be used to guide clinical practice. Our method for the inclusion of single-arm observational studies allows the performance of indirect comparisons that had previously not been possible due to incomplete networks composed solely of available RCTs. We also built on many recent innovations to enable researchers to use both aggregate data and IPD. This method could be used in similar situations where treatment comparisons have not been possible due to restrictions to RCT evidence and where a mixture of aggregate data and IPD are available.

Indirect Comparisons: A Review of Reporting and Methodological Quality

PubMed Central

Donegan, Sarah; Williamson, Paula; Gamble, Carrol; Tudur-Smith, Catrin

2010-01-01

Background The indirect comparison of two interventions can be valuable in many situations. However, the quality of an indirect comparison will depend on several factors including the chosen methodology and validity of underlying assumptions. Published indirect comparisons are increasingly more common in the medical literature, but as yet, there are no published recommendations of how they should be reported. Our aim is to systematically review the quality of published indirect comparisons to add to existing empirical data suggesting that improvements can be made when reporting and applying indirect comparisons. Methodology/Findings Reviews applying statistical methods to indirectly compare the clinical effectiveness of two interventions using randomised controlled trials were eligible. We searched (1966–2008) Database of Abstracts and Reviews of Effects, The Cochrane library, and Medline. Full review publications were assessed for eligibility. Specific criteria to assess quality were developed and applied. Forty-three reviews were included. Adequate methodology was used to calculate the indirect comparison in 41 reviews. Nineteen reviews assessed the similarity assumption using sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis, or meta-regression. Eleven reviews compared trial-level characteristics. Twenty-four reviews assessed statistical homogeneity. Twelve reviews investigated causes of heterogeneity. Seventeen reviews included direct and indirect evidence for the same comparison; six reviews assessed consistency. One review combined both evidence types. Twenty-five reviews urged caution in interpretation of results, and 24 reviews indicated when results were from indirect evidence by stating this term with the result. Conclusions This review shows that the underlying assumptions are not routinely explored or reported when undertaking indirect comparisons. We recommend, therefore, that the quality of indirect comparisons should be improved, in particular, by assessing assumptions and reporting the assessment methods applied. We propose that the quality criteria applied in this article may provide a basis to help review authors carry out indirect comparisons and to aid appropriate interpretation. PMID:21085712

Powering up with indirect reciprocity in a large-scale field experiment

PubMed Central

Yoeli, Erez; Hoffman, Moshe; Rand, David G.; Nowak, Martin A.

2013-01-01

A defining aspect of human cooperation is the use of sophisticated indirect reciprocity. We observe others, talk about others, and act accordingly. We help those who help others, and we cooperate expecting that others will cooperate in return. Indirect reciprocity is based on reputation, which spreads by communication. A crucial aspect of indirect reciprocity is observability: reputation effects can support cooperation as long as peoples’ actions can be observed by others. In evolutionary models of indirect reciprocity, natural selection favors cooperation when observability is sufficiently high. Complimenting this theoretical work are experiments where observability promotes cooperation among small groups playing games in the laboratory. Until now, however, there has been little evidence of observability’s power to promote large-scale cooperation in real world settings. Here we provide such evidence using a field study involving 2413 subjects. We collaborated with a utility company to study participation in a program designed to prevent blackouts. We show that observability triples participation in this public goods game. The effect is over four times larger than offering a $25 monetary incentive, the company’s previous policy. Furthermore, as predicted by indirect reciprocity, we provide evidence that reputational concerns are driving our observability effect. In sum, we show how indirect reciprocity can be harnessed to increase cooperation in a relevant, real-world public goods game. PMID:23754399

Spatially complex land change: The Indirect effect of Brazil's agricultural sector on land use in Amazonia

PubMed Central

Richards, Peter D.; Walker, Robert T.; Arima, Eugenio Y.

2014-01-01

Soybean farming has brought economic development to parts of South America, as well as environmental hopes and concerns. A substantial hope resides in the decoupling of Brazil's agricultural sector from deforestation in the Amazon region, in which case expansive agriculture need not imply forest degradation. However, concerns have also been voiced about the potential indirect effects of agriculture. This article addresses these indirect effects forthe case of the Brazilian Amazon since 2002. Our work finds that as much as thirty-two percent of deforestation, or the loss of more than 30,000 km2 of Amazon forest, is attributable, indirectly, to Brazil's soybean sector. However, we also observe that the magnitude of the indirect impact of the agriculture sector on forest loss in the Amazon has declined markedly since 2006. We also find a shift in the underlying causes of indirect land use change in the Amazon, and suggest that land appreciation in agricultural regions has supplanted farm expansions as a source of indirect land use change. Our results are broadly congruent with recent work recognizing the success of policy changes in mitigating the impact of soybean expansion on forest loss in the Amazon. However, they also caution that the soybean sector may continue to incentivize land clearings through its impact on regional land markets. PMID:25492993

Electrocatalytic Hydrogenation of Phenol over Platinum and Rhodium: Unexpected Temperature Effects Resolved

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Nirala; Song, Yang; Gutiérrez, Oliver Y.

2016-11-04

Both electrocatalytic hydrogenation (ECH) and thermal hydrogenation (TH) of phenol by Pt and Rh show a roll-over in rate with increasing temperature without changing the principal reaction pathways. The negative effect of temperature for aqueous-phase phenol H2 and electrocatalytic hydrogenation on Pt and Rh is deduced to be due to the unexpected buildup of dehydrogenated phenol adsorbates, which block active sites. Rates of ECH and TH increase similarly with increasing hydrogen chemical potential whether induced by applied potential or H2 pressure, both via increasing H coverage, and indirectly by removing site blockers, a very strong effect at high temperature. Thismore » enables unprecedented rates in the TH of phenol at these temperatures.« less

OH radicals from the indirect actions of X-rays induce cell lethality and mediate the majority of the oxygen enhancement effect.

PubMed

Hirayama, Ryoichi; Ito, Atsushi; Noguchi, Miho; Matsumoto, Yoshitaka; Uzawa, Akiko; Kobashi, Gen; Okayasu, Ryuichi; Furusawa, Yoshiya

2013-11-01

We examined OH radical-mediated indirect actions from X irradiation on cell killing in wild-type Chinese hamster ovary cell lines (CHO and AA8) under oxic and hypoxic conditions, and compared the contribution of direct and indirect actions under both conditions. The contribution of indirect action on cell killing can be estimated from the maximum degree of protection by dimethylsulfoxide, which suppresses indirect action by quenching OH radicals without affecting the direct action of X rays on cell killing. The contributions of indirect action on cell killing of CHO cells were 76% and 50% under oxic and hypoxic conditions, respectively, and those for AA8 cells were 85% and 47%, respectively. Therefore, the indirect action on cell killing was enhanced by oxygen during X irradiation in both cell lines tested. Oxygen enhancement ratios (OERs) at the 10% survival level (D10 or LD90) for CHO and AA8 cells were 2.68 ± 0.15 and 2.76 ± 0.08, respectively. OERs were evaluated separately for indirect and direct actions, which gave the values of 3.75 and 2.01 for CHO, and 4.11 and 1.32 for AA8 cells, respectively. Thus the generally accepted OER value of ∼3 is best understood as the average of the OER values for both indirect and direct actions. These results imply that both indirect and direct actions on cell killing require oxygen for the majority of lethal DNA damage, however, oxygen plays a larger role in indirect than for direct effects. Conversely, the lethal damage induced by the direct action of X rays are less affected by oxygen concentration.

The Effects of Psychotherapy Treatment on Outcome in Bulimia Nervosa: Examining Indirect Effects through Emotion Regulation, Self-Directed Behavior, and Self-Discrepancy within the Mediation Model

PubMed Central

Peterson, Carol B.; Berg, Kelly C.; Crosby, Ross D.; Lavender, Jason M.; Accurso, Erin C.; Ciao, Anna C.; Smith, Tracey L.; Klein, Marjorie; Mitchell, James E.; Crow, Scott J.; Wonderlich, Stephen A.

2017-01-01

Objective The purpose of this investigation was to examine the indirect effects of Integrative Cognitive-Affective Therapy (ICAT-BN) and Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy-Enhanced (CBT-E) on bulimia nervosa (BN) treatment outcome through three hypothesized maintenance variables: emotion regulation, self-directed behavior, and self-discrepancy. Method Eighty adults with BN were randomized to 21 sessions of ICAT-BN or CBT-E. A regression-based bootstrapping approach was used to test the indirect effects of treatment on outcome at end of treatment through emotion regulation and self-directed behavior measured at mid-treatment, as well as the indirect effects of treatment at follow-up through emotion regulation, self-directed behavior, and self-discrepancy measured at end of treatment. Results No significant differences in outcome between treatment conditions were observed, and no significant direct or indirect effects were found. Examination of the individual paths within the indirect effects models revealed comparable treatment effects. Across treatments, improvements in emotion regulation and self-directed behavior between baseline and mid-treatment predicted improvements in global eating disorder scores but not binge eating and purging frequency at end of treatment. Baseline to end of treatment improvements in emotion regulation and self-directed behavior also predicted improvements in global eating disorder scores at follow-up. Baseline to end of treatment improvements in emotion regulation predicted improvements in binge eating and baseline to end of treatment increases in positive self-directed behavior predicted improvements in purging at follow-up. Discussion These findings suggest that emotion regulation and self-directed behavior are important treatment targets and that ICAT-BN and CBT-E are comparable in modifying these psychological processes among individuals with BN. PMID:28117906

The effects of psychotherapy treatment on outcome in bulimia nervosa: Examining indirect effects through emotion regulation, self-directed behavior, and self-discrepancy within the mediation model.

PubMed

Peterson, Carol B; Berg, Kelly C; Crosby, Ross D; Lavender, Jason M; Accurso, Erin C; Ciao, Anna C; Smith, Tracey L; Klein, Marjorie; Mitchell, James E; Crow, Scott J; Wonderlich, Stephen A

2017-06-01

The purpose of this investigation was to examine the indirect effects of Integrative Cognitive-Affective Therapy (ICAT-BN) and Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy-Enhanced (CBT-E) on bulimia nervosa (BN) treatment outcome through three hypothesized maintenance variables: emotion regulation, self-directed behavior, and self-discrepancy. Eighty adults with BN were randomized to 21 sessions of ICAT-BN or CBT-E. A regression-based bootstrapping approach was used to test the indirect effects of treatment on outcome at end of treatment through emotion regulation and self-directed behavior measured at mid-treatment, as well as the indirect effects of treatment at follow-up through emotion regulation, self-directed behavior, and self-discrepancy measured at end of treatment. No significant differences in outcome between treatment conditions were observed, and no significant direct or indirect effects were found. Examination of the individual paths within the indirect effects models revealed comparable treatment effects. Across treatments, improvements in emotion regulation and self-directed behavior between baseline and mid-treatment predicted improvements in global eating disorder scores but not binge eating and purging frequency at end of treatment. Baseline to end of treatment improvements in emotion regulation and self-directed behavior also predicted improvements in global eating disorder scores at follow-up. Baseline to end of treatment improvements in emotion regulation predicted improvements in binge eating and baseline to end of treatment increases in positive self-directed behavior predicted improvements in purging at follow-up. These findings suggest that emotion regulation and self-directed behavior are important treatment targets and that ICAT-BN and CBT-E are comparable in modifying these psychological processes among individuals with BN. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluating the (cost-)effectiveness of guided and unguided Internet-based self-help for problematic alcohol use in employees--a three arm randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Boß, Leif; Lehr, Dirk; Berking, Matthias; Riper, Heleen; Schaub, Michael Patrick; Ebert, David Daniel

2015-10-12

Problematic alcohol consumption is associated with a high disease burden for affected individuals and has a detrimental impact on companies and society due to direct and indirect health costs. This protocol describes a study design to evaluate the (cost)-effectiveness of a guided and unguided Internet-based self-help intervention for employees called "GET.ON Clever weniger trinken" (be smart - drink less) compared to a waiting list control group. In a three-arm randomized controlled trial, 528 German adults who are currently members of the workforce will be recruited by occupational health departments of major health insurance companies. Employees aged 18 and older displaying problematic drinking patterns (>21/14 drinks per week and an AUDIT score > 8/6 for men/women) will be randomly assigned to one of three following study conditions: 1. unguided web-based self-help for problematic drinking, 2. adherence-focused guided self-help, and 3. waiting list control. Self-report data will be collected at baseline (T1), 6 weeks (T2), and 6 months (T3) after randomization. The primary outcome will be the reduction of alcohol standard units during the 7 days prior to T2, using the Timeline Followback method. Cost-effectiveness analyses to determine direct and indirect costs will be conducted from the perspectives of employers and the society. Data will be analyzed on an intention-to-treat basis and per protocol. There is a need to identify effective low-threshold solutions to improve ill-health and reduce the negative economic consequences due to problematic alcohol drinking in workforces. If the proposed web-based intervention proves both to be efficacious and cost-effective, it may be a useful tool to increase utilization rates of interventions for problematic drinking in occupational settings. German Register of Clinical Studies (DRKS): DRKS00006105 , date of registration: 2014-07-07.

Comparing Indirect Effects in Different Groups in Single-Group and Multi-Group Structural Equation Models

PubMed Central

Ryu, Ehri; Cheong, Jeewon

2017-01-01

In this article, we evaluated the performance of statistical methods in single-group and multi-group analysis approaches for testing group difference in indirect effects and for testing simple indirect effects in each group. We also investigated whether the performance of the methods in the single-group approach was affected when the assumption of equal variance was not satisfied. The assumption was critical for the performance of the two methods in the single-group analysis: the method using a product term for testing the group difference in a single path coefficient, and the Wald test for testing the group difference in the indirect effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals in the single-group approach and all methods in the multi-group approach were not affected by the violation of the assumption. We compared the performance of the methods and provided recommendations. PMID:28553248

Peer Victimization and Adolescent Adjustment: Does School Belonging Matter?

PubMed Central

WORMINGTON, STEPHANIE V.; ANDERSON, KRISTEN G.; SCHNEIDER, ASHLEY; TOMLINSON, KRISTIN L.; BROWN, SANDRA A.

2016-01-01

Recent research highlights the role of peer victimization in students’ adjustment across a variety of domains (e.g., academic, social), but less often identifies potential mediating variables. In the current study, we tested for direct effects from peer victimization to adolescents’ academic behavior and alcohol use, as well as indirect effects through school belonging. Adolescents from two large samples (middle school: N = 2,808; high school: N = 6,821) self-reported on peer victimization, school belonging, academic outcomes (GPA, school truancy), and alcohol use (lifetime, past 30 days). Two-group structural equation models revealed (a) direct and indirect paths from peer victimization to academic functioning; (b) indirect, but not direct, effects through school belonging for lifetime drinking; and (c) direct and indirect effects from peer victimization to current drinking. Findings implicate school belonging as a mediator between peer victimization and important outcomes in adolescence. PMID:27087793

Adiposity has no direct effect on carotid intima-media thickness in adolescents and young adults: Use of structural equation modeling to elucidate indirect & direct pathways.

PubMed

Gao, Zhiqian; Khoury, Philip R; McCoy, Connie E; Shah, Amy S; Kimball, Thomas R; Dolan, Lawrence M; Urbina, Elaine M

2016-03-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is associated with CV events in adults. Thicker cIMT is found in youth with CV risk factors including obesity. Which risk factors have the most effect upon cIMT in youth and whether obesity has direct or indirect effects is not known. We used structural equation modeling to elucidate direct and indirect pathways through which obesity and other risk factors were associated with cIMT. We collected demographics, anthropometrics and laboratory data on 784 subjects age 10-24 years (mean 18.0 ± 3.3 years). Common, bulb and internal carotid cIMT were measured by ultrasound. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to assess independent determinants of cIMT. Analyses were repeated with structural equation modeling to determine direct and indirect effects. Multivariable regression models explained 11%-22% of variation of cIMT. Age, sex and systolic blood pressure (BP) z-score were significant determinants of all cIMT segments. Body mass index (BMI) z-score, race, presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and non-HDL were significant for some segments (all p = 0.05). The largest direct effect on cIMT was age (0.312) followed by BP (0.228), Blood glucose control (0.108) and non-HDL (0.134). BMI only had a significant indirect effect through blood glucose control, BP & non-HDL. High sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP) had a small indirect effect through blood glucose control (all p = 0.05). Age and BP are the major factors with direct effect on cIMT. Glucose and non-HDL were also important in this cohort with a high prevalence of T2DM. BMI only has indirect effects, through other risk factors. Traditional CV risk factors have important direct effects on cIMT in the young, but adiposity exerts its influence only through other CV risk factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aerosol indirect effect from turbulence-induced broadening of cloud-droplet size distributions

PubMed Central

Chandrakar, Kamal Kant; Cantrell, Will; Chang, Kelken; Ciochetto, David; Niedermeier, Dennis; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Shaw, Raymond A.; Yang, Fan

2016-01-01

The influence of aerosol concentration on the cloud-droplet size distribution is investigated in a laboratory chamber that enables turbulent cloud formation through moist convection. The experiments allow steady-state microphysics to be achieved, with aerosol input balanced by cloud-droplet growth and fallout. As aerosol concentration is increased, the cloud-droplet mean diameter decreases, as expected, but the width of the size distribution also decreases sharply. The aerosol input allows for cloud generation in the limiting regimes of fast microphysics (τc<τt) for high aerosol concentration, and slow microphysics (τc>τt) for low aerosol concentration; here, τc is the phase-relaxation time and τt is the turbulence-correlation time. The increase in the width of the droplet size distribution for the low aerosol limit is consistent with larger variability of supersaturation due to the slow microphysical response. A stochastic differential equation for supersaturation predicts that the standard deviation of the squared droplet radius should increase linearly with a system time scale defined as τs−1=τc−1+τt−1, and the measurements are in excellent agreement with this finding. The result underscores the importance of droplet size dispersion for aerosol indirect effects: increasing aerosol concentration changes the albedo and suppresses precipitation formation not only through reduction of the mean droplet diameter but also by narrowing of the droplet size distribution due to reduced supersaturation fluctuations. Supersaturation fluctuations in the low aerosol/slow microphysics limit are likely of leading importance for precipitation formation. PMID:27911802

Aerosol indirect effect from turbulence-induced broadening of cloud-droplet size distributions

DOE PAGES

Chandrakar, Kamal Kant; Cantrell, Will; Chang, Kelken; ...

2016-11-28

Here, the influence of aerosol concentration on cloud droplet size distribution is investigated in a laboratory chamber that enables turbulent cloud formation through moist convection. The experiments allow steady-state microphysics to be achieved, with aerosol input balanced by cloud droplet growth and fallout. As aerosol concentration is increased the cloud droplet mean diameter decreases as expected, but the width of the size distribution also decreases sharply. The aerosol input allows for cloud generation in the limiting regimes of fast microphysics (τ c < τ t) for high aerosol concentration, and slow microphysics (τ c > τ t) for low aerosolmore » concentration; here, τ c is the phase relaxation time and τ t is the turbulence correlation time. The increase in the width of the droplet size distribution for the low aerosol limit is consistent with larger variability of supersaturation due to the slow microphysical response. A stochastic differential equation for supersaturation predicts that the standard deviation of the squared droplet radius should increase linearly with a system time scale defined as τ s -1 =τ c -1 + τ t -1, and the measurements are in excellent agreement with this finding. This finding underscores the importance of droplet size dispersion for the aerosol indirect effect: increasing aerosol concentration not only suppresses precipitation formation through reduction of the mean droplet diameter, but perhaps more importantly, through narrowing of the droplet size distribution due to reduced supersaturation fluctuations. Supersaturation fluctuations in the low aerosol / slow microphysics limit are likely of leading importance for precipitation formation.« less

Aerosol indirect effect from turbulence-induced broadening of cloud-droplet size distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chandrakar, Kamal Kant; Cantrell, Will; Chang, Kelken

Here, the influence of aerosol concentration on cloud droplet size distribution is investigated in a laboratory chamber that enables turbulent cloud formation through moist convection. The experiments allow steady-state microphysics to be achieved, with aerosol input balanced by cloud droplet growth and fallout. As aerosol concentration is increased the cloud droplet mean diameter decreases as expected, but the width of the size distribution also decreases sharply. The aerosol input allows for cloud generation in the limiting regimes of fast microphysics (τ c < τ t) for high aerosol concentration, and slow microphysics (τ c > τ t) for low aerosolmore » concentration; here, τ c is the phase relaxation time and τ t is the turbulence correlation time. The increase in the width of the droplet size distribution for the low aerosol limit is consistent with larger variability of supersaturation due to the slow microphysical response. A stochastic differential equation for supersaturation predicts that the standard deviation of the squared droplet radius should increase linearly with a system time scale defined as τ s -1 =τ c -1 + τ t -1, and the measurements are in excellent agreement with this finding. This finding underscores the importance of droplet size dispersion for the aerosol indirect effect: increasing aerosol concentration not only suppresses precipitation formation through reduction of the mean droplet diameter, but perhaps more importantly, through narrowing of the droplet size distribution due to reduced supersaturation fluctuations. Supersaturation fluctuations in the low aerosol / slow microphysics limit are likely of leading importance for precipitation formation.« less

Aerosol indirect effect from turbulence-induced broadening of cloud-droplet size distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chandrakar, Kamal Kant; Cantrell, Will; Chang, Kelken

2016-11-28

The influence of aerosol concentration on cloud droplet size distribution is investigated in a laboratory chamber that enables turbulent cloud formation through moist convection. The experiments allow steady-state microphysics to be achieved, with aerosol input balanced by cloud droplet growth and fallout. As aerosol concentration is increased the cloud droplet mean diameter decreases as expected, but the width of the size distribution also decreases sharply. The aerosol input allows for cloud generation in the limiting regimes of fast microphysics (τ c < τ t) for high aerosol concentration, and slow microphysics (τ c > τ t) for low aerosol concentration;more » here, τ c is the phase relaxation time and τ t is the turbulence correlation time. The increase in the width of the droplet size distribution for the low aerosol limit is consistent with larger variability of supersaturation due to the slow microphysical response. A stochastic differential equation for supersaturation predicts that the standard deviation of the squared droplet radius should increase linearly with a system time scale defined as τ s -1 =τ c -1 + τ t -1, and the measurements are in excellent agreement with this finding. This finding underscores the importance of droplet size dispersion for the aerosol indirect effect: increasing aerosol concentration not only suppresses precipitation formation through reduction of the mean droplet diameter, but perhaps more importantly, through narrowing of the droplet size distribution due to reduced supersaturation fluctuations. Supersaturation fluctuations in the low aerosol / slow microphysics limit are likely of leading importance for precipitation formation.« less

Simultaneous Retrieval of Multiple Aerosol Parameters Using a Multi-Angular Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuo, K. S.; Weger, R. C.; Welch, R. M.

1997-01-01

Atmospheric aerosol particles, both natural and anthropogenic, are important to the earth's radiative balance through their direct and indirect effects. They scatter the incoming solar radiation (direct effect) and modify the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (indirect effect). Although it has been suggested that aerosols exert a net cooling influence on climate, this effect has received less attention than the radiative forcing due to clouds and greenhouse gases. In order to understand the role that aerosols play in a changing climate, detailed and accurate observations are a prerequisite. The retrieval of aerosol optical properties by satellite remote sensing has proven to be a difficult task. The difficulty results mainly from the tenuous nature and variable composition of aerosols. To date, with single-angle satellite observations, we can only retrieve reliably against dark backgrounds, such as over oceans and dense vegetation. Even then, assumptions must be made concerning the chemical composition of aerosols. The best hope we have for aerosol retrievals over bright backgrounds are observations from multiple angles, such as those provided by the MISR and POLDER instruments. In this investigation we examine the feasibility of simultaneous retrieval of multiple aerosol optical parameters using reflectances from a typical set of twelve angles observed by the French POLDER instrument. The retrieved aerosol optical parameters consist of asymmetry factor, single scattering albedo, surface albedo, and optical thickness.

Initial Comparison of Direct and Legacy Modeling Approaches for Radial Core Expansion Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shemon, Emily R.

2016-10-10

Radial core expansion in sodium-cooled fast reactors provides an important reactivity feedback effect. As the reactor power increases due to normal start up conditions or accident scenarios, the core and surrounding materials heat up, causing both grid plate expansion and bowing of the assembly ducts. When the core restraint system is designed correctly, the resulting structural deformations introduce negative reactivity which decreases the reactor power. Historically, an indirect procedure has been used to estimate the reactivity feedback due to structural deformation which relies upon perturbation theory and coupling legacy physics codes with limited geometry capabilities. With advancements in modeling andmore » simulation, radial core expansion phenomena can now be modeled directly, providing an assessment of the accuracy of the reactivity feedback coefficients generated by indirect legacy methods. Recently a new capability was added to the PROTEUS-SN unstructured geometry neutron transport solver to analyze deformed meshes quickly and directly. By supplying the deformed mesh in addition to the base configuration input files, PROTEUS-SN automatically processes material adjustments including calculation of region densities to conserve mass, calculation of isotopic densities according to material models (for example, sodium density as a function of temperature), and subsequent re-homogenization of materials. To verify the new capability of directly simulating deformed meshes, PROTEUS-SN was used to compute reactivity feedback for a series of contrived yet representative deformed configurations for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor design. The indirect legacy procedure was also performed to generate reactivity feedback coefficients for the same deformed configurations. Interestingly, the legacy procedure consistently overestimated reactivity feedbacks by 35% compared to direct simulations by PROTEUS-SN. This overestimation indicates that the legacy procedures are in fact not conservative and could be overestimating reactivity feedback effects that are closely tied to reactor safety. We conclude that there is indeed value in performing direct simulation of deformed meshes despite the increased computational expense. PROTEUS-SN is already part of the SHARP multi-physics toolkit where both thermal hydraulics and structural mechanical feedback modeling can be applied but this is the first comparison of direct simulation to legacy techniques for radial core expansion.« less

Electromagnetic fields and Green's functions in elliptical vacuum chambers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persichelli, S.; Biancacci, N.; Migliorati, M.; Palumbo, L.; Vaccaro, V. G.

2017-10-01

In this paper, we discuss the electromagnetic interaction between a point charge travelling inside a waveguide of elliptical cross section, and the waveguide itself. By using a convenient expansion of the Mathieu functions, useful in particular for treating a variety of problems in applied mathematics and physics with elliptic geometry, we first obtain the longitudinal electromagnetic field of a point charge (Green's function) in free space in terms of elliptical coordinates. This expression allows, then, to calculate the scattered field due to the boundary conditions in our geometry. By summing the contribution of the direct or primary field and the indirect field scattered by the boundary, after a careful choice of some expansion expressions, we derive a novel formula of the longitudinal electric field, in any transverse position of the elliptical cross section, generated by the charge moving along the longitudinal axis of the waveguide. The obtained expression is represented in a closed form, it can be differentiated and integrated, it can be used to fully describe the radiation process of a particle beam travelling inside a waveguide of elliptical cross section, and it is valid for any elliptic geometry. The equations are used to evaluate the coupling impedance due to indirect space charge in case of elliptical geometry. In addition, they are useful as preliminary studies for the determination of the coupling impedance in different cases involving elliptic vacuum chambers, as, for example, the effect of the finite conductivity of the beam pipe wall or the geometrical variation of the vacuum chamber due to elliptic step transitions existing in some accelerators.

Electromagnetic fields and Green’s functions in elliptical vacuum chambers

DOE PAGES

Persichelli, S.; Biancacci, N.; Migliorati, M.; ...

2017-10-23

In this paper, we discuss the electromagnetic interaction between a point charge travelling inside a waveguide of elliptical cross section, and the waveguide itself. By using a convenient expansion of the Mathieu functions, useful in particular for treating a variety of problems in applied mathematics and physics with elliptic geometry, we first obtain the longitudinal electromagnetic field of a point charge (Green's function) in free space in terms of elliptical coordinates. This expression allows, then, to calculate the scattered field due to the boundary conditions in our geometry. By summing the contribution of the direct or primary field and themore » indirect field scattered by the boundary, after a careful choice of some expansion expressions, we derive a novel formula of the longitudinal electric field, in any transverse position of the elliptical cross section, generated by the charge moving along the longitudinal axis of the waveguide. The obtained expression is represented in a closed form, it can be differentiated and integrated, it can be used to fully describe the radiation process of a particle beam travelling inside a waveguide of elliptical cross section, and it is valid for any elliptic geometry. The equations are used to evaluate the coupling impedance due to indirect space charge in case of elliptical geometry. In addition, they are useful as preliminary studies for the determination of the coupling impedance in different cases involving elliptic vacuum chambers, as, for example, the effect of the finite conductivity of the beam pipe wall or the geometrical variation of the vacuum chamber due to elliptic step transitions existing in some accelerators.« less

Electromagnetic fields and Green’s functions in elliptical vacuum chambers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Persichelli, S.; Biancacci, N.; Migliorati, M.

In this paper, we discuss the electromagnetic interaction between a point charge travelling inside a waveguide of elliptical cross section, and the waveguide itself. By using a convenient expansion of the Mathieu functions, useful in particular for treating a variety of problems in applied mathematics and physics with elliptic geometry, we first obtain the longitudinal electromagnetic field of a point charge (Green's function) in free space in terms of elliptical coordinates. This expression allows, then, to calculate the scattered field due to the boundary conditions in our geometry. By summing the contribution of the direct or primary field and themore » indirect field scattered by the boundary, after a careful choice of some expansion expressions, we derive a novel formula of the longitudinal electric field, in any transverse position of the elliptical cross section, generated by the charge moving along the longitudinal axis of the waveguide. The obtained expression is represented in a closed form, it can be differentiated and integrated, it can be used to fully describe the radiation process of a particle beam travelling inside a waveguide of elliptical cross section, and it is valid for any elliptic geometry. The equations are used to evaluate the coupling impedance due to indirect space charge in case of elliptical geometry. In addition, they are useful as preliminary studies for the determination of the coupling impedance in different cases involving elliptic vacuum chambers, as, for example, the effect of the finite conductivity of the beam pipe wall or the geometrical variation of the vacuum chamber due to elliptic step transitions existing in some accelerators.« less

Seasonal fecundity and costs to λ are more strongly affected by direct than indirect predation effects across species

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaManna, Joseph A.; Martin, Thomas E.

2017-01-01

Increased perceived predation risk can cause behavioral and physiological responses to reduce direct predation mortality, but these responses can also cause demographic costs through reduced reproductive output. Such indirect costs of predation risk have received increased attention in recent years, but the relative importance of direct vs. indirect predation costs to population growth (λ) across species remains unclear. We measured direct nest predation rates as well as indirect benefits (i.e., reduced predation rates) and costs (i.e., decreased reproductive output) arising from parental responses to perceived offspring predation risk for 10 songbird species breeding along natural gradients in nest predation risk. We show that reductions in seasonal fecundity from behavioral responses to perceived predation risk represent significant demographic costs for six of the 10 species. However, demographic costs from these indirect predation effects on seasonal fecundity comprised only 12% of cumulative predation costs averaged across species. In contrast, costs from direct predation mortality comprised 88% of cumulative predation costs averaged across species. Demographic costs from direct offspring predation were relatively more important for species with higher within-season residual-reproductive value (i.e., multiple-brooded species) than for species with lower residual-reproductive value (i.e., single-brooded species). Costs from indirect predation effects were significant across single- but not multiple-brooded species. Ultimately, demographic costs from behavioral responses to offspring predation risk differed among species as a function of their life-history strategies. Yet direct predation mortality generally wielded a stronger influence than indirect effects on seasonal fecundity and projected λ across species.

Indirect competition for pollinators is weak compared to direct resource competition: pollination and performance in the face of an invader.

PubMed

Palladini, Jennifer D; Maron, John L

2013-08-01

Invasive plants have the potential to reduce native plant abundance through both direct and indirect interactions. Direct interactions, such as competition for soil resources, and indirect interactions, such as competition for shared pollinators, have been shown to influence native plant performance; however, we know much less about how these interactions influence native plant abundance in the field. While direct competitive interactions are often assumed to drive declines in native abundance, an evaluation of their influence relative to indirect mechanisms is needed to more fully understand invasive plant impacts. We quantified the direct effects of resource competition by the invasive perennial forb, Euphorbia esula (Euphorbiaceae), on the recruitment, subsequent performance, and ultimate adult abundance of the native annual, Clarkia pulchella (Onagraceae). We contrast these direct effects with those that indirectly resulted from competition for shared pollinators. Although E. esula dramatically reduced pollinator visitation to C. pulchella, plants were only weakly pollen-limited. Pollen supplementation increased the number of seeds per fruit from 41.28 to 46.38. Seed addition experiments revealed that the impacts of ameliorating pollen limitation only increased potential recruitment by 12.3 %. In contrast, seed addition experiments that ameliorated direct competition with E. esula resulted in an increase in potential future recruitment of 574 %. Our results show that, while the indirect effects of competition for pollinators can influence plant abundance, its effects are dwarfed by the magnitude of direct effects of competition for resources.

Direct and indirect effects of glomalin, mycorrhizal hyphae, and roots on aggregate stability in rhizosphere of trifoliate orange

PubMed Central

Wu, Qiang-Sheng; Cao, Ming-Qin; Zou, Ying-Ning; He, Xin-hua

2014-01-01

To test direct and indirect effects of glomalin, mycorrhizal hyphae, and roots on aggregate stability, perspex pots separated by 37-μm nylon mesh in the middle were used to form root-free hyphae and root/hyphae chambers, where trifoliate orange (Poncirus trifoliata) seedlings were colonized by Funneliformis mosseae or Paraglomus occultum in the root/hyphae chamber. Both fungal species induced significantly higher plant growth, root total length, easily-extractable glomalin-related soil protein (EE-GRSP) and total GRSP (T-GRSP), and mean weight diameter (an aggregate stability indicator). The Pearson correlation showed that root colonization or soil hyphal length significantly positively correlated with EE-GRSP, difficultly-extractable GRSP (DE-GRSP), T-GRSP, and water-stable aggregates in 2.00–4.00, 0.50–1.00, and 0.25–0.50 mm size fractions. The path analysis indicated that in the root/hyphae chamber, aggregate stability derived from a direct effect of root colonization, EE-GRSP or DE-GRSP. Meanwhile, the direct effect was stronger by EE-GRSP or DE-GRSP than by mycorrhizal colonization. In the root-free hyphae chamber, mycorrhizal-mediated aggregate stability was due to total effect but not direct effect of soil hyphal length, EE-GRSP and T-GRSP. Our results suggest that GRSP among these tested factors may be the primary contributor to aggregate stability in the citrus rhizosphere. PMID:25059396

Indirect presentation in the thymus limits naive and regulatory T-cell differentiation by promoting deletion of self-reactive thymocytes.

PubMed

Yap, Jin Yan; Wirasinha, Rushika C; Chan, Anna; Howard, Debbie R; Goodnow, Christopher C; Daley, Stephen R

2018-02-07

Acquisition of T-cell central tolerance involves distinct pathways of self-antigen presentation to thymocytes. One pathway termed indirect presentation requires a self-antigen transfer step from thymic epithelial cells (TECs) to bone marrow-derived cells before the self-antigen is presented to thymocytes. The role of indirect presentation in central tolerance is context-dependent, potentially due to variation in self-antigen expression, processing and presentation in the thymus. Here, we report experiments in mice in which TECs expressed a membrane-bound transgenic self-antigen, hen egg lysozyme (HEL), from either the insulin (insHEL) or thyroglobulin (thyroHEL) promoter. Intrathymic HEL expression was less abundant and more confined to the medulla in insHEL mice compared with thyroHEL mice. When indirect presentation was impaired by generating mice lacking MHC class II expression in bone marrow-derived antigen-presenting cells, insHEL-mediated thymocyte deletion was abolished, whereas thyroHEL-mediated deletion occurred at a later stage of thymocyte development and Foxp3 + regulatory T-cell differentiation increased. Indirect presentation increased the strength of T-cell receptor signalling that both self-antigens induced in thymocytes, as assessed by Helios expression. Hence, indirect presentation limits the differentiation of naive and regulatory T cells by promoting deletion of self-reactive thymocytes. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Effect of Direct and Indirect Corrective Feedback on Students' Spelling Errors (El efecto de la retroalimentación directa e indirecta sobre los errores de ortografía de los estudiantes)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baleghizadeh, Sasan; Dadashi, Mehdi

2011-01-01

The study presented here is an attempt to examine the role of indirect feedback in promoting junior high school students' spelling accuracy in English. It compares the effect of direct feedback with indirect feedback on students' written work dictated by their teacher from their textbooks. Two classes were selected from the Zanjanrood District in…

Expanding the developmental models of writing: A direct and indirect effects model of developmental writing (DIEW)

PubMed Central

Kim, Young-Suk Grace; Schatschneider, Christopher

2016-01-01

We investigated direct and indirect effects of component skills on writing (DIEW) using data from 193 children in Grade 1. In this model, working memory was hypothesized to be a foundational cognitive ability for language and cognitive skills as well as transcription skills, which, in turn, contribute to writing. Foundational oral language skills (vocabulary and grammatical knowledge) and higher-order cognitive skills (inference and theory of mind) were hypothesized to be component skills of text generation (i.e., discourse-level oral language). Results from structural equation modeling largely supported a complete mediation model among four variations of the DIEW model. Discourse-level oral language, spelling, and handwriting fluency completely mediated the relations of higher-order cognitive skills, foundational oral language, and working memory to writing. Moreover, language and cognitive skills had both direct and indirect relations to discourse-level oral language. Total effects, including direct and indirect effects, were substantial for discourse-level oral language (.46), working memory (.43), and spelling (.37), followed by vocabulary (.19), handwriting (.17), theory of mind (.12), inference (.10), and grammatical knowledge (.10). The model explained approximately 67% of variance in writing quality. These results indicate that multiple language and cognitive skills make direct and indirect contributions, and it is important to consider both direct and indirect pathways of influences when considering skills that are important to writing. PMID:28260812

Loss of work productivity due to illness and medical treatment.

PubMed

Cockburn, I M; Bailit, H L; Berndt, E R; Finkelstein, S N

1999-11-01

We examined the effects on work productivity of treatment with antihistamines in a retrospective study using linked health claims data and daily work output records for a sample of nearly 6000 claims processors at a large insurance company, between 1993 and 1995. We explained the variation in work output depending on the subjects' demographic characteristics, their jobs, and whether they were treated with "sedating" versus "nonsedating" antihistamines for nasal allergies. Differences of up to 13% in productivity were found after the subjects took sedating or nonsedating antihistamines. The observed effect suggests substantial indirect economic costs, which up to now have been largely overlooked because work productivity has proved difficult to measure objectively.

Effects of climate change on forest vegetation [Chapter 6

Treesearch

Patrick N. Behrens; Robert E. Keane; David L. Peterson; Joanne J. Ho

2018-01-01

Projected rapid changes in climate will affect vegetation assemblages in the Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) region directly and indirectly. Direct effects include altered vegetation growth, mortality, and regeneration, and indirect effects include changes in disturbance regimes (Chapter 8) and interactions with altered ecosystem processes (e.g., hydrology,...

Longitudinal mediation of processing speed on age-related change in memory and fluid intelligence.

PubMed

Robitaille, Annie; Piccinin, Andrea M; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Hoffman, Lesa; Johansson, Boo; Deeg, Dorly J H; Aartsen, Marja J; Comijs, Hannie C; Hofer, Scott M

2013-12-01

Age-related decline in processing speed has long been considered a key driver of cognitive aging. While the majority of empirical evidence for the processing speed hypothesis has been obtained from analyses of between-person age differences, longitudinal studies provide a direct test of within-person change. Using recent developments in longitudinal mediation analysis, we examine the speed-mediation hypothesis at both the within-and between-person levels in two longitudinal studies, Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) and Origins of Variance in the Oldest-Old (OCTO-Twin). We found significant within-person indirect effects of change in age, such that increasing age was related to lower speed, which in turn relates to lower performance across repeated measures on other cognitive outcomes. Although between-person indirect effects were also significant in LASA, they were not in OCTO-Twin which is not unexpected given the age homogeneous nature of the OCTO-Twin data. A more in-depth examination through measures of effect size suggests that, for the LASA study, the within-person indirect effects were small and between-person indirect effects were consistently larger. These differing magnitudes of direct and indirect effects across levels demonstrate the importance of separating between- and within-person effects in evaluating theoretical models of age-related change. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Landslides in Colorado, USA--Impacts and loss estimation for 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Highland, Lynn M.

2012-01-01

The focus of this study is to investigate landslides and consequent losses which affected Colorado in the year 2010. By obtaining landslide reports from a variety of sources, this report will demonstrate the feasibility of creating a profile of landslides and their effects on communities. A short overview of the current status of landslide-loss studies for the United States is introduced, followed by a compilation of landslide occurrence and associated losses and impacts which affected Colorado for the year 2010. Direct costs are summarized in descriptive and tabular form, and where possible, indirect costs are also noted or estimated. Total direct costs of landslides in Colorado for the year 2010 were approximately $9,149,335.00 (2010 U.S. dollars). (Since not all data for damages and costs were obtained, this figure realistically could be considerably higher.) Indirect costs were noted where available but are not totaled due to the fact that most indirect costs were not obtainable for various reasons outlined later in this report. Casualty data are considered as being within the scope of loss evaluation, and are reported in Appendix 1, but are not assigned dollar losses. More details on the source material for loss data not found in the reference section are reported in Appendix 2, and Appendix 3 summarizes notes on landslide-loss investigations in general and lessons learned during the process of loss-data collection.

Genetic conflict between sexual signalling and juvenile survival in the three-spined stickleback.

PubMed

Kim, Sin-Yeon; Velando, Alberto

2016-02-29

Secondary sexual traits and mating preferences may evolve in part because the offspring of attractive males inherit attractiveness and other genetically correlated traits such as fecundity and viability. A problem regarding these indirect genetic mechanisms is how sufficient genetic variation in the traits subject to sexual selection is maintained within a population. Here we explored the additive genetic correlations between carotenoid-based male ornament colouration, female fecundity and juvenile survival rate in the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) to test the possibility that attractiveness genes reduce important fitness components in the bearers not expressing the sexual trait. Male sexual attractiveness (i.e., red nuptial colouration) as well as female fecundity and juvenile viability showed heritable variations in the three-spined stickleback. Thus, females can gain indirect benefits by mating with an attractive male. There was a strong positive genetic correlation between female fecundity and juvenile viability. However, red sexual signal of male sticklebacks was negatively genetically correlated with juvenile survival, suggesting genetic conflict between attractiveness and viability. There was no significant correlation between attractiveness of brothers and fecundity of sisters, suggesting no intra-locus sexual conflict. The negative effects of mating with a colourful male on offspring viability may contribute to maintaining the heritable variation under strong directional sexual selection. The strength of indirect sexual selection may be weaker than previously thought due to the hidden genetic conflicts.

Testing of an advanced thermochemical conversion reactor system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1990-01-01

This report presents the results of work conducted by MTCI to verify and confirm experimentally the ability of the MTCI gasification process to effectively generate a high-quality, medium-Btu gas from a wider variety of feedstock and waste than that attainable in air-blown, direct gasification systems. The system's overall simplicity, due to the compact nature of the pulse combustor, and the high heat transfer rates attainable within the pulsating flow resonance tubes, provide a decided and near-term potential economic advantage for the MTCI indirect gasification system. The primary objective was the design, construction, and testing of a Process Design Verification System for an indirectly heated, thermochemical fluid-bed reactor and a pulse combustor an an integrated system that can process alternative renewable sources of energy such as biomass, black liquor, municipal solid waste and waste hydrocarbons, including heavy oils into a useful product gas. The test objectives for the biomass portion of this program were to establish definitive performance data on biomass feedstocks covering a wide range of feedstock qualities and characteristics. The test objectives for the black liquor portion of this program were to verify the operation of the indirect gasifier on commercial black liquor containing 65 percent solids at several temperature levels and to characterize the bed carbon content, bed solids particle size and sulfur distribution as a function of gasification conditions.

Cognitive decline impairs financial and health literacy among community-based older persons without dementia

PubMed Central

Boyle, Patricia A.; Yu, Lei; Wilson, Robert S.; Segawa, Eisuke; Buchman, Aron S.; Bennett, David A.

2013-01-01

Literacy is an important determinant of health and well-being across the lifespan but is critical in aging, when many influential health and financial decisions are made. Prior studies suggest that older persons exhibit lower literacy than younger persons, particularly in the domains of financial and health literacy, but the reasons why remain unknown. The objectives of this study were to: a) examine pathways linking diverse resources (i.e., education, word knowledge, cognitive function, and decision making style) to health and financial literacy among older persons and determine the extent to which the relation of age with literacy represents a direct effect versus an indirect effect due to decrements in specific cognitive functions (i.e., executive functions and episodic memory), and b) test the hypothesis that declines in executive function and episodic memory are associated with lower literacy among older persons without dementia. 645 community-based older persons without dementia underwent detailed assessments of diverse resources, including education, word knowledge, cognitive function (i.e., executive function, episodic memory) and decision making style (i.e., risk aversion), and completed a measure of literacy that included items similar to those assessed in the Health and Retirement Study, such as numeracy, financial concepts such as compound inflation and knowledge of stocks and bonds, and important health concepts such as understanding of drug risk and Medicare Part D. Path analysis revealed a strong effect of age on literacy, with about half of the effect of age on literacy due to decrements in executive functions and episodic memory. In addition, executive function had an indirect effect on literacy via decision making style (i.e., risk aversion), and education and word knowledge had independent effects on literacy. Finally, among (n=447) persons with repeated cognitive assessments available for up to 14 years, regression analysis supported the association of multiple resources with literacy; moreover, more rapid declines in executive function and episodic memory over an average of 6.4 years prior to the literacy assessment predicted lower literacy scores (p’s<0.02), but rate of decline in word knowledge did not. These findings suggest that diverse individual resources contribute to financial and health literacy and lower literacy in old age is partially due to declines in executive function and episodic memory. PMID:23957225

Cognitive decline impairs financial and health literacy among community-based older persons without dementia.

PubMed

Boyle, Patricia A; Yu, Lei; Wilson, Robert S; Segawa, Eisuke; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

2013-09-01

Literacy is an important determinant of health and well-being across the life span but is critical in aging, when many influential health and financial decisions are made. Prior studies suggest that older persons exhibit lower literacy than younger persons, particularly in the domains of financial and health literacy, but the reasons why remain unknown. The objectives of this study were to: (a) examine pathways linking diverse resources (i.e., education, word knowledge, cognitive function, and decision making style) to health and financial literacy among older persons and determine the extent to which the relation of age with literacy represents a direct effect versus an indirect effect due to decrements in specific cognitive functions (i.e., executive functions and episodic memory); and (b) test the hypothesis that declines in executive function and episodic memory are associated with lower literacy among older persons without dementia. Six-hundred and forty-five community-based older persons without dementia underwent detailed assessments of diverse resources, including education, word knowledge, cognitive function (i.e., executive function, episodic memory) and decision making style (i.e., risk aversion), and completed a measure of literacy that included items similar to those used in the Health and Retirement Study, such as numeracy, financial concepts such as compound inflation and knowledge of stocks and bonds, and important health concepts such as understanding of drug risk and Medicare Part D. Path analysis revealed a strong effect of age on literacy, with about half of the effect of age on literacy due to decrements in executive functions and episodic memory. In addition, executive function had an indirect effect on literacy via decision making style (i.e., risk aversion), and education and word knowledge had independent effects on literacy. Finally, among (n = 447) persons with repeated cognitive assessments available for up to 14 years, regression analysis supported the association of multiple resources with literacy; moreover, more rapid declines in executive function and episodic memory over an average of 6.4 years prior to the literacy assessment predicted lower literacy scores (ps < 0.02), but rate of decline in word knowledge did not. These findings suggest that diverse individual resources contribute to financial and health literacy and lower literacy in old age is partially due to declines in executive function and episodic memory.

Depression among Transgender Older adults: General and Minority Stress

PubMed Central

Hoy-Ellis, Charles P.; Fredriksen-Goldsen, Karen I.

2017-01-01

Objectives This study aims to (1) examine the direct and indirect effects internalized heterosexism, concealment of gender identity, and perceived general stress in association with depression among transgender older adults; and (2) to assess the relative contribution of each relationship. Methods Secondary analyses of data from a large community-based study of older sexual and gender minorities were conducted utilizing structural equation modeling with a subsample (n = 174) of transgender adults aged 50 to 86-years old. Results Disclosure of gender identity had no significant direct or indirect effects on either perceived general stress or depression. Internalized heterosexism did not have a direct effect on depression, but did have a significant indirect effect through perceived general stress. Finally, perceived general stress had an additional significant direct effect on depression, over and above internalized heterosexism. Total effect sizes appear to be considerable with standardized betas greater than 5.0. Conclusion Perceived general stress and internalized heterosexism independently and cumulatively have significant direct and indirect effects on depression among transgender older adults. Implications for depression among transgender older adults and the role of community psychology are discussed. PMID:28369987

Effects of urban sprawl and vehicle miles traveled on traffic fatalities.

PubMed

Yeo, Jiho; Park, Sungjin; Jang, Kitae

2015-01-01

Previous research suggests that urban sprawl increases auto-dependency and that excessive auto use increases the risk of traffic fatalities. This indirect effect of urban sprawl on traffic fatalities is compared to non-vehicle miles traveled (VMT)-related direct effect of sprawl on fatalities. We conducted a path analysis to examine the causal linkages among urban sprawl, VMT, traffic fatalities, income, and fuel cost. The path diagram includes 2 major linkages: the direct relationship between urban sprawl and traffic fatalities and the indirect effect on fatalities through increased VMT in sprawling urban areas. To measure the relative strength of these causal linkages, path coefficients are estimated using data collected nationally from 147 urbanized areas in the United States. Through both direct and indirect paths, urban sprawl is associated with greater numbers of traffic fatalities, but the direct effect of sprawl on fatalities is more influential than the indirect effect. Enhancing traffic safety can be achieved by impeding urban sprawl and encouraging compact development. On the other hand, policy tools reducing VMT may be less effective than anticipated for traffic safety.

Defining and estimating causal direct and indirect effects when setting the mediator to specific values is not feasible

PubMed Central

Lok, Judith J.

2016-01-01

Natural direct and indirect effects decompose the effect of a treatment into the part that is mediated by a covariate (the mediator) and the part that is not. Their definitions rely on the concept of outcomes under treatment with the mediator “set” to its value without treatment. Typically, the mechanism through which the mediator is set to this value is left unspecified, and in many applications it may be challenging to fix the mediator to particular values for each unit or patient. Moreover, how one sets the mediator may affect the distribution of the outcome. This article introduces “organic” direct and indirect effects, which can be defined and estimated without relying on setting the mediator to specific values. Organic direct and indirect effects can be applied for example to estimate how much of the effect of some treatments for HIV/AIDS on mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection is mediated by the effect of the treatment on the HIV viral load in the blood of the mother. PMID:27229743

Direct and Indirect Effects of PM on the Cardiovascular System

PubMed Central

Nelin, Timothy D.; Joseph, Allan M.; Gorr, Matthew W.; Wold, Loren E.

2011-01-01

Human exposure to particulate matter (PM) elicits a variety of responses on the cardiovascular system through both direct and indirect pathways. Indirect effects of PM on the cardiovascular system are mediated through the autonomic nervous system, which controls heart rate variability, and inflammatory responses, which augment acute cardiovascular events and atherosclerosis. Recent research demonstrates that PM also affects the cardiovascular system directly by entry into the systemic circulation. This process causes myocardial dysfunction through mechanisms of reactive oxygen species production, calcium ion interference, and vascular dysfunction. In this review, we will present key evidence in both the direct and indirect pathways, suggest clinical applications of the current literature, and recommend directions for future research. PMID:22119171

Cost-of-Illness Analysis of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Iran

PubMed Central

Javanbakht, Mehdi; Baradaran, Hamid R.; Mashayekhi, Atefeh; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Khamseh, Mohammad E.; Kharazmi, Erfan; Sadeghi, Aboozar

2011-01-01

Introduction Diabetes is a worldwide high prevalence chronic progressive disease that poses a significant challenge to healthcare systems. The aim of this study is to provide a detailed economic burden of diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and its complications in Iran in 2009 year. Methods This is a prevalence-based cost-of-illness study focusing on quantifying direct health care costs by bottom-up approach. Data on inpatient hospital services, outpatient clinic visits, physician services, drugs, laboratory test, education and non-medical cost were collected from two national registries. The human capital approach was used to calculate indirect costs separately in male and female and also among different age groups. Results The total national cost of diagnosed T2DM in 2009 is estimated at 3.78 billion USA dollars (USD) including 2.04±0.28 billion direct (medical and non-medical) costs and indirect costs of 1.73 million. Average direct and indirect cost per capita was 842.6±102 and 864.8 USD respectively. Complications (48.9%) and drugs (23.8%) were main components of direct cost. The largest components of medical expenditures attributed to diabetes's complications are cardiovascular disease (42.3% of total Complications cost), nephropathy (23%) and ophthalmic complications (14%). Indirect costs include temporarily disability (335.7 million), permanent disability (452.4 million) and reduced productivity due to premature mortality (950.3 million). Conclusions T2DM is a costly disease in the Iran healthcare system and consume more than 8.69% of total health expenditure. In addition to these quantified costs, T2DM imposes high intangible costs on society in terms of reduced quality of life. Identification of effective new strategies for the control of diabetes and its complications is a public health priority. PMID:22066013

Testing a Model of the Relationship of Demographic, Affective, and Fitness Variables to Academic Achievement among Non-Science Majors at an Independent University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutra, Andrew Martin

The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship of specific attributes of college students to their academic achievement at an independent university in central Florida. Academic achievement was measured as the numeric score on the final exam in a survey-of-science course (EDS 1032) required for non-science majors. Attribute sets included personological, affective, and fitness variables. A hypothesized diagram of the direct and indirect effects among these attributes relative to academic achievement was developed and tested using data collected Spring 2014 from 168 students in four sections of EDS 1032 at Florida Institute of Technology. Multiple regression results revealed that 19% of the variance in a students' academic achievement was due to the influence of these three sets of research factors; this was found to be statistically significant. The results of mediation analyses also indicated that three variables had significant direct effects on academic achievement, namely gender, number of academic credits, and sports motivation. In addition, gender had a significant indirect effect on academic achievement via stress, and the number of academic credits had a significant indirect effect on academic achievement via sports motivation. These findings indicated that female students scored roughly six points higher than male students on this final exam. Also, gender's influence on academic achievement was partially attributable to the student's level of stress (e.g., male students with high levels of stress had lower grades on this final exam than female students with the same level of stress). In addition, it was found that students taking more academic credits were likely to score higher on this final exam than those students taking fewer credits. Further, as students' level of sports amotivation increased, the strength of the relationship between the number of student academic credits and academic achievement decreased. These results support Self-Determination Theory and strengthen the standpoint of athletics and academics in regards to self-regulation.

Water relations in grassland and desert ecosystems exposed to elevated atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Morgan, J A; Pataki, D E; Körner, C; Clark, H; Del Grosso, S J; Grünzweig, J M; Knapp, A K; Mosier, A R; Newton, P C D; Niklaus, P A; Nippert, J B; Nowak, R S; Parton, W J; Polley, H W; Shaw, M R

2004-06-01

Atmospheric CO2 enrichment may stimulate plant growth directly through (1) enhanced photosynthesis or indirectly, through (2) reduced plant water consumption and hence slower soil moisture depletion, or the combination of both. Herein we describe gas exchange, plant biomass and species responses of five native or semi-native temperate and Mediterranean grasslands and three semi-arid systems to CO2 enrichment, with an emphasis on water relations. Increasing CO2 led to decreased leaf conductance for water vapor, improved plant water status, altered seasonal evapotranspiration dynamics, and in most cases, periodic increases in soil water content. The extent, timing and duration of these responses varied among ecosystems, species and years. Across the grasslands of the Kansas tallgrass prairie, Colorado shortgrass steppe and Swiss calcareous grassland, increases in aboveground biomass from CO2 enrichment were relatively greater in dry years. In contrast, CO2-induced aboveground biomass increases in the Texas C3/C4 grassland and the New Zealand pasture seemed little or only marginally influenced by yearly variation in soil water, while plant growth in the Mojave Desert was stimulated by CO2 in a relatively wet year. Mediterranean grasslands sometimes failed to respond to CO2-related increased late-season water, whereas semiarid Negev grassland assemblages profited. Vegetative and reproductive responses to CO2 were highly varied among species and ecosystems, and did not generally follow any predictable pattern in regard to functional groups. Results suggest that the indirect effects of CO2 on plant and soil water relations may contribute substantially to experimentally induced CO2-effects, and also reflect local humidity conditions. For landscape scale predictions, this analysis calls for a clear distinction between biomass responses due to direct CO2 effects on photosynthesis and those indirect CO2 effects via soil moisture as documented here.

Lateral cascade of indirect effects in food webs with different types of adaptive behavior.

PubMed

Kamran-Disfani, Ahmad R; Golubski, Antonio J

2013-12-21

It is widely recognized that indirect effects due to adaptive behaviors can have important effects on food webs. One consequence may be to change how readily perturbations propagate through the web, because species' behaviors as well as densities may respond to perturbations. It is not well understood which types of behavior are more likely to facilitate versus inhibit propagation of disturbances through a food web, or how this might be affected by the shape of a food web or the patterns of interaction strengths within it. We model two simple, laterally expanded food webs (one with three trophic levels and one with four), and compare how various adaptive behaviors affect the potential for a newly introduced predator to change the equilibrium densities of distant species. Patterns of changes in response to the introduction were qualitatively similar across most models, as were the ways in which patterns of direct interaction strengths affected those responses. Depending on both the web structure and the specific adaptive behavior, the potential for density changes to propagate through the web could be either increased or diminished relative to the no-behavior model. Two behaviors allowed density changes to propagate through a four-level web that precluded such propagation in the no-behavior model, and each of these two behaviors led to qualitatively different patterns of density changes. In the one model (diet choice) in which density changes were able to propagate in both web structures, patterns of density changes differed qualitatively between webs. Some of our results flowed from the fact that behaviors did not interact directly in the systems we considered, so that indirect effects on distant species had to be at least partly density-mediated. Our models highlight this as an inherent limitation of considering in isolation behaviors that are strictly foraging-related or strictly defense-related, making a case for the value of simultaneously considering multiple interacting types of behavior in the same model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Direct and Indirect Effects of UV-B Exposure on Litter Decomposition: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Song, Xinzhang; Peng, Changhui; Jiang, Hong; Zhu, Qiuan; Wang, Weifeng

2013-01-01

Ultraviolet-B (UV-B) exposure in the course of litter decomposition may have a direct effect on decomposition rates via changing states of photodegradation or decomposer constitution in litter while UV-B exposure during growth periods may alter chemical compositions and physical properties of plants. Consequently, these changes will indirectly affect subsequent litter decomposition processes in soil. Although studies are available on both the positive and negative effects (including no observable effects) of UV-B exposure on litter decomposition, a comprehensive analysis leading to an adequate understanding remains unresolved. Using data from 93 studies across six biomes, this introductory meta-analysis found that elevated UV-B directly increased litter decomposition rates by 7% and indirectly by 12% while attenuated UV-B directly decreased litter decomposition rates by 23% and indirectly increased litter decomposition rates by 7%. However, neither positive nor negative effects were statistically significant. Woody plant litter decomposition seemed more sensitive to UV-B than herbaceous plant litter except under conditions of indirect effects of elevated UV-B. Furthermore, levels of UV-B intensity significantly affected litter decomposition response to UV-B (P<0.05). UV-B effects on litter decomposition were to a large degree compounded by climatic factors (e.g., MAP and MAT) (P<0.05) and litter chemistry (e.g., lignin content) (P<0.01). Results suggest these factors likely have a bearing on masking the important role of UV-B on litter decomposition. No significant differences in UV-B effects on litter decomposition were found between study types (field experiment vs. laboratory incubation), litter forms (leaf vs. needle), and decay duration. Indirect effects of elevated UV-B on litter decomposition significantly increased with decay duration (P<0.001). Additionally, relatively small changes in UV-B exposure intensity (30%) had significant direct effects on litter decomposition (P<0.05). The intent of this meta-analysis was to improve our understanding of the overall effects of UV-B on litter decomposition. PMID:23818993

[Colorectal cancer in Spain: Temporary disability and preventive occupational strategies].

PubMed

Vicente-Herrero, M T; Terradillos-García, M J; Ramírez-Iñiguez-de la Torre, M V; Capdevila-García, L M; López-González, A A

2013-01-01

Colorectal cancer is one of the most frequent cancers in both sexes and the most frequent in the developed countries, if men and women are considered together as a group. It has an important associated morbidity and mortality in all countries and constitutes a public health problem with a high direct and indirect economic cost. The number of workdays lost due to temporary disability (TD) is one of the quantifiable references of these indirect costs. To determine the indirect cost associated with TD due to colorectal cancer in Spain during the year 2011, a cost that aids in the prevention cost/benefit estimation. The number of TD processes, the number of workdays lost due to TD, and the mean duration of those processes, based on the CIE 9-MC codes related to this pathology, as well as the calculated cost, using the Spanish minimum wage as a reference, during the period of January to December 2011, were all reviewed. Colorectal cancer in Spain during 2011 represented 1,046 TD processes, 202,784 workdays lost, and a mean process duration of 194 days/year. The resulting cost of the pathology due to TD was 4,335,521.92 euros. These results are beneficial for evaluating the usefulness of implementing public health support strategies for a greater reduction in colorectal cancer prevalence and mortality, and an improvement in quality of life of the affected individuals and their families, together with an economic savings resulting from a reduction in TD as a consequence of this disease. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Mexicana de Gastroenterología. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

An improved recommendation algorithm via weakening indirect linkage effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Guang; Qiu, Tian; Shen, Xiao-Quan

2015-07-01

We propose an indirect-link-weakened mass diffusion method (IMD), by considering the indirect linkage and the source object heterogeneity effect in the mass diffusion (MD) recommendation method. Experimental results on the MovieLens, Netflix, and RYM datasets show that, the IMD method greatly improves both the recommendation accuracy and diversity, compared with a heterogeneity-weakened MD method (HMD), which only considers the source object heterogeneity. Moreover, the recommendation accuracy of the cold objects is also better elevated in the IMD than the HMD method. It suggests that eliminating the redundancy induced by the indirect linkages could have a prominent effect on the recommendation efficiency in the MD method. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11175079) and the Young Scientist Training Project of Jiangxi Province, China (Grant No. 20133BCB23017).

Aerosol indirect effects - general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quaas, J.; Ming, Y.; Menon, S.; Takemura, T.; Wang, M.; Penner, J. E.; Gettelman, A.; Lohmann, U.; Bellouin, N.; Boucher, O.; Sayer, A. M.; Thomas, G. E.; McComiskey, A.; Feingold, G.; Hoose, C.; Kristjánsson, J. E.; Liu, X.; Balkanski, Y.; Donner, L. J.; Ginoux, P. A.; Stier, P.; Grandey, B.; Feichter, J.; Sednev, I.; Bauer, S. E.; Koch, D.; Grainger, R. G.; Kirkevåg, A.; Iversen, T.; Seland, Ø.; Easter, R.; Ghan, S. J.; Rasch, P. J.; Morrison, H.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Iacono, M. J.; Kinne, S.; Schulz, M.

2009-11-01

Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth (τa) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is found that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between τa and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (fcld) and τa as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong fcld-τa relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between τa and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR-τa relationship show a strong positive correlation between τa and fcld. The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of τa, and parameterisation assumptions such as a lower bound on Nd. Nevertheless, the strengths of the statistical relationships are good predictors for the aerosol forcings in the models. An estimate of the total short-wave aerosol forcing inferred from the combination of these predictors for the modelled forcings with the satellite-derived statistical relationships yields a global annual mean value of -1.5±0.5 Wm-2. In an alternative approach, the radiative flux perturbation due to anthropogenic aerosols can be broken down into a component over the cloud-free portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol direct effect) and a component over the cloudy portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol indirect effect). An estimate obtained by scaling these simulated clear- and cloudy-sky forcings with estimates of anthropogenic τa and satellite-retrieved Nd-τa regression slopes, respectively, yields a global, annual-mean aerosol direct effect estimate of -0.4±0.2 Wm-2 and a cloudy-sky (aerosol indirect effect) estimate of -0.7±0.5 Wm-2, with a total estimate of -1.2±0.4 Wm-2.

Aerosol indirect effects ? general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quaas, Johannes; Ming, Yi; Menon, Surabi

2010-03-12

Aerosol indirect effects continue to constitute one of the most important uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. Within the international AEROCOM initiative, the representation of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions in ten different general circulation models (GCMs) is evaluated using three satellite datasets. The focus is on stratiform liquid water clouds since most GCMs do not include ice nucleation effects, and none of the model explicitly parameterises aerosol effects on convective clouds. We compute statistical relationships between aerosol optical depth ({tau}{sub a}) and various cloud and radiation quantities in a manner that is consistent between the models and the satellite data. It is foundmore » that the model-simulated influence of aerosols on cloud droplet number concentration (N{sub d}) compares relatively well to the satellite data at least over the ocean. The relationship between {tau}{sub a} and liquid water path is simulated much too strongly by the models. This suggests that the implementation of the second aerosol indirect effect mainly in terms of an autoconversion parameterisation has to be revisited in the GCMs. A positive relationship between total cloud fraction (f{sub cld}) and {tau}{sub a} as found in the satellite data is simulated by the majority of the models, albeit less strongly than that in the satellite data in most of them. In a discussion of the hypotheses proposed in the literature to explain the satellite-derived strong f{sub cld} - {tau}{sub a} relationship, our results indicate that none can be identified as a unique explanation. Relationships similar to the ones found in satellite data between {tau}{sub a} and cloud top temperature or outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) are simulated by only a few GCMs. The GCMs that simulate a negative OLR - {tau}{sub a} relationship show a strong positive correlation between {tau}{sub a} and f{sub cld} The short-wave total aerosol radiative forcing as simulated by the GCMs is strongly influenced by the simulated anthropogenic fraction of {tau}{sub a}, and parameterization assumptions such as a lower bound on N{sub d}. Nevertheless, the strengths of the statistical relationships are good predictors for the aerosol forcings in the models. An estimate of the total short-wave aerosol forcing inferred from the combination of these predictors for the modelled forcings with the satellite-derived statistical relationships yields a global annual mean value of -1.5 {+-} 0.5 Wm{sup -2}. In an alternative approach, the radiative flux perturbation due to anthropogenic aerosols can be broken down into a component over the cloud-free portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol direct effect) and a component over the cloudy portion of the globe (approximately the aerosol indirect effect). An estimate obtained by scaling these simulated clear- and cloudy-sky forcings with estimates of anthropogenic {tau}{sub a} and satellite-retrieved Nd - {tau}{sub a} regression slopes, respectively, yields a global, annual-mean aerosol direct effect estimate of -0.4 {+-} 0.2 Wm{sup -2} and a cloudy-sky (aerosol indirect effect) estimate of -0.7 {+-} 0.5 Wm{sup -2}, with a total estimate of -1.2 {+-} 0.4 Wm{sup -2}.« less

Personality Traits and Combat Exposure as Predictors of Psychopathology Over Time

PubMed Central

Koffel, Erin; Kramer, Mark D.; Arbisi, Paul A.; Erbes, Christopher R.; Kaler, Matthew; Polusny, Melissa A.

2016-01-01

Background Research suggests that personality traits have both direct and indirect effects on the development of psychological symptoms, with indirect effects mediated by stressful or traumatic events. This study models the direct influence of personality traits on residualized changes in internalizing and externalizing symptoms following a stressful and potentially traumatic deployment, as well as the indirect influence of personality on symptom levels mediated by combat exposure. Method We utilized structural equation modeling with a longitudinal prospective study of 522 US National Guard soldiers deployed to Iraq. Analyses were based on self-report measures of personality, combat exposure, and internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Results Both pre-deployment Disconstraint and externalizing symptoms predicted combat exposure, which in turn predicted internalizing and externalizing symptoms. There was a significant indirect effect for pre-deployment externalizing symptoms on post-deployment externalizing via combat exposure (p < .01). Negative Emotionality and pre-deployment internalizing symptoms directly predicted post-deployment internalizing symptoms, but both were unrelated to combat exposure. No direct effects of personality on residualized changes in externalizing symptoms were found. Conclusions Baseline symptom dimensions had significant direct and indirect effects on post-deployment symptoms. Controlling for both pre-exposure personality and symptoms, combat experiences remained positively related to both internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Implications for diagnostic classification are discussed. PMID:26347314

Direct and indirect measurement of physical activity in older adults: a systematic review of the literature.

PubMed

Kowalski, Kristina; Rhodes, Ryan; Naylor, Patti-Jean; Tuokko, Holly; MacDonald, Stuart

2012-12-18

Due to physiological and cognitive changes that occur with aging, accurate physical activity (PA) measurement in older adults represents a unique challenge. The primary purpose of this study was to systematically review measures of PA and their use and appropriateness with older adults. A secondary aim was to determine the level of agreement between PA measures in older adults. Literature was identified through electronic databases. Studies were eligible if they examined the correlation and/or agreement between at least 2 measures, either indirect and/or direct, of PA in older adults (> 65 years of age). Thirty-six studies met eligibility criteria. The indirect and direct measures of PA across the studies differed widely in their ability to address the key dimensions (i.e., frequency, intensity, time, type) of PA in older adults. The average correlation between indirect and direct measures was moderate (r=0.38). The correlation between indirect and other indirect measures (r=0.29) was weak, while correlations between direct measures with other direct measures were high (real world: r= 0.84; controlled settings: r=0.92). Agreement was strongest between direct PA measures with other direct measures in both real world and laboratory settings. While a clear trend regarding the agreement for mean differences between other PA measures (i.e., direct with indirect, indirect with indirect) did not emerge, there were only a limited number of studies that reported comparable units. Despite the lack of a clear trend regarding the agreement between PA measures in older adults, the findings underscore the importance of valid, accurate and reliable measurement. To advance this field, researchers will need to approach the assessment of PA in older adults in a more standardized way (i.e., consistent reporting of results, consensus over cut-points and epoch lengths, using appropriate validation tools). Until then researchers should be cautious when choosing measures for PA that are appropriate for their research questions and when comparing PA levels across various studies.

Indirect miniscrew anchorage: biomechanical loading of the dental anchorage during mandibular molar protraction-an FEM analysis.

PubMed

Holberg, Christof; Winterhalder, Philipp; Holberg, Nikola; Wichelhaus, Andrea; Rudzki-Janson, Ingrid

2014-01-01

While there are many studies in the literature addressing direct miniscrew anchorage, the biomechanical effects of indirect miniscrew anchorage remain unknown. The aim of the present study was to biomechanically analyze the load on the anchor teeth during mandibular molar protraction using different types of anchorage. Four finite element method (FEM) models of the right mandible were created using the morphological CT data of a 21-year-old male. All models were morphologically identical, but they differed in anchorage type (dental anchorage, direct miniscrew anchorage, indirect miniscrew anchorage with one anchor tooth, indirect miniscrew anchorage with two anchor teeth). To analyze the load on the dental anchorage during mandibular molar protraction, we measured the induced effective strain (µstrain) at specific control points on the alveolar bone. With indirect miniscrew anchorage, we observed that the effective strain at an average of 7.21 μstrain (one anchor tooth) or 6.57 μstrain (two anchor teeth) was almost as high as in pure dental anchorage where no miniscrew was used (mean 8.38 µstrain). In contrast, we noted significantly lower strain values in conjunction with direct miniscrew anchorage. We observed highly significant differences between direct and indirect simulated miniscrew anchorage (p=0.008). Our FEM results reveal relatively high loads on the dental anchorage when using indirect miniscrew anchorage. This may carry an increased risk of anchorage loss during mandibular molar protraction; however, further studies are necessary to confirm this.

Urbanism and life satisfaction among the aged.

PubMed

Liang, J; Warfel, B L

1983-01-01

This study examines the impact of urbanism on the causal mechanisms by which life satisfaction is determined. Although the links between the type of community and life satisfaction have been the foci of many studies, the findings are by no means conclusive. Some have found that the rural elderly express greater satisfaction, others have not. Such a discrepancy may be due to (a) the neglect of other variables, (b) a lack of explicit causal specifications, and (c) the failure to distinguish main effects from interaction effects. In this study a causal model that incorporates urbanism as a polytomous variable and its interaction effects has been proposed. The model was evaluated by using four data sets with sample sizes ranging from 961 to 3,996. Urbanism was found to have indirect main effects as well as interaction effects on life satisfaction.

The use of cell phone and insight into its potential human health impacts.

PubMed

Kim, Ki-Hyun; Kabir, Ehsanul; Jahan, Shamin Ara

2016-04-01

The rapid evolution of mobile phone technology has raised public concern about its possible association with adverse health effects. Given the huge number of mobile phone users at present days, even simple adverse health effects could have major implications. This article reviews the present knowledge concerning the health effects stemming from the use of cellular phones by emphasizing adverse biological effects, epidemiological issues, and indirect health effects. A line of epidemiological evidence suggests that there is no concrete association between mobile phone radiation and cancer. The evidence regarding the occurrence of cancer due to exposure to the radio frequency energy of mobile phones is nonetheless conflicting. Consequently, long-term research in this field is necessary to account for the vital issue of this scientific research to the public in a meaningful way.

[Comparison of boys' and girls' families for actor and partner effect of stress, depression and parent-adolescent communication on middle school students' suicidal ideation: triadic data analysis].

PubMed

Shin, Sung Hee; Ko, Suk Jeong; Yang, Yu Jeong; Oh, Hyun Su; Jang, Mi Young; Choi, Joong Myung

2014-06-01

This study was done to compare families of boys or of girls for actor and partner effect of stress, depression and parent-adolescent communication as perceived by mother, father and adolescent on adolescents' suicidal ideation. Participants were 183 families (104 boys' families, 79 girls' families) who met eligibility criteria. All measures were self-administered. Data were analyzed using SPSS 18.0 and AMOS 18.0 program. In boys' families, boys' depression and communication with father showed actor effect on boys' suicidal ideation. Boys' stress showed indirect effect on boys' suicidal ideation through communication with father and boys' depression. Mothers' depression showed indirect partner effect on boys' suicidal ideation through boys' depression. In families of girls, girls' depression and stress showed actor effects on girls' suicidal ideation. Girls' communication with mother showed indirect effects through girls' depression. Also girls' stress showed indirect effect through girls' depression. Stress in mothers and/or fathers showed partner effect on girls' suicidal ideation. To intervene in adolescents' suicidal ideation and promote adolescents' mental health, programs should be developed differently according to gender and based on parent's psychological states.

Predator-driven elemental cycling: the impact of predation and risk effects on ecosystem stoichiometry.

PubMed

Leroux, Shawn J; Schmitz, Oswald J

2015-11-01

Empirical evidence is beginning to show that predators can be important drivers of elemental cycling within ecosystems by propagating indirect effects that determine the distribution of elements among trophic levels as well as determine the chemical content of organic matter that becomes decomposed by microbes. These indirect effects can be propagated by predator consumptive effects on prey, nonconsumptive (risk) effects, or a combination of both. Currently, there is insufficient theory to predict how such predator effects should propagate throughout ecosystems. We present here a theoretical framework for exploring predator effects on ecosystem elemental cycling to encourage further empirical quantification. We use a classic ecosystem trophic compartment model as a basis for our analyses but infuse principles from ecological stoichiometry into the analyses of elemental cycling. Using a combined analytical-numerical approach, we compare how predators affect cycling through consumptive effects in which they control the flux of nutrients up trophic chains; through risk effects in which they change the homeostatic elemental balance of herbivore prey which accordingly changes the element ratio herbivores select from plants; and through a combination of both effects. Our analysis reveals that predators can have quantitatively important effects on elemental cycling, relative to a model formalism that excludes predator effects. Furthermore, the feedbacks due to predator nonconsumptive effects often have the quantitatively strongest impact on whole ecosystem elemental stocks, production and efficiency rates, and recycling fluxes by changing the stoichiometric balance of all trophic levels. Our modeling framework predictably shows how bottom-up control by microbes and top-down control by predators on ecosystems become interdependent when top predator effects permeate ecosystems.

Cost of biologics in the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a factor not to be overlooked.

PubMed

Prince, Femke H M; van Suijlekom-Smit, Lisette W A

2013-08-01

Biologics are a promising treatment option for juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) but drug costs are very high compared to conventional treatment. From a socioeconomic view the additional costs of new interventions should be weighed against their incremental health benefits compared to standard care. Therefore we evaluated data on cost-effectiveness of biologics in JIA. We searched Medline, Embase, and The York Centre for Reviews and Dissemination database for relevant literature. Current data show that biologics are reducing direct and indirect healthcare costs if one excludes the costs of the drug itself. The costs of biologics are more than ten times as high as conventional drug treatment. As a result of limited data, no comparison on cost-effectiveness between biologics could be performed. Although data on long-term cost-effectiveness of biologics are lacking, the expectation is that they will be cost-effective in the long-term. The idea behind this is that biologic treatment should be administered to patients that without these drugs would incur high direct and indirect costs due to continuous severe disease resulting in irreversible disabilities. In our opinion the best cost benefit could be gained if these patients receive biologic treatment introduced early in the disease. This is in order to minimize irreversible damage to the joints and minimize need for long-term biologic therapy by early suppression of the disease. To support these hypotheses future research is needed on long-term cost-effectiveness of all biologics used in JIA.

Sample size and power considerations in network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Network meta-analysis is becoming increasingly popular for establishing comparative effectiveness among multiple interventions for the same disease. Network meta-analysis inherits all methodological challenges of standard pairwise meta-analysis, but with increased complexity due to the multitude of intervention comparisons. One issue that is now widely recognized in pairwise meta-analysis is the issue of sample size and statistical power. This issue, however, has so far only received little attention in network meta-analysis. To date, no approaches have been proposed for evaluating the adequacy of the sample size, and thus power, in a treatment network. Findings In this article, we develop easy-to-use flexible methods for estimating the ‘effective sample size’ in indirect comparison meta-analysis and network meta-analysis. The effective sample size for a particular treatment comparison can be interpreted as the number of patients in a pairwise meta-analysis that would provide the same degree and strength of evidence as that which is provided in the indirect comparison or network meta-analysis. We further develop methods for retrospectively estimating the statistical power for each comparison in a network meta-analysis. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methods for estimating effective sample size and statistical power using data from a network meta-analysis on interventions for smoking cessation including over 100 trials. Conclusion The proposed methods are easy to use and will be of high value to regulatory agencies and decision makers who must assess the strength of the evidence supporting comparative effectiveness estimates. PMID:22992327

Testing the sensitivity of past climates to the indirect effects of dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagoo, Navjit; Storelvmo, Trude

2017-06-01

Mineral dust particles are important ice nuclei (IN) and as such indirectly impact Earth's radiative balance via the properties of cold clouds. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0.6, and Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1, and a new empirical parameterization for ice nucleation on dust particles, we investigate the radiative forcing induced by dust IN for different dust loadings. Dust emissions are representative of global conditions for the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period. Increased dust leads to smaller and more numerous ice crystals in mixed phase clouds, impacting cloud opacity, lifetime, and precipitation. This increases the shortwave cloud radiative forcing, resulting in significant surface temperature cooling and polar amplification—which is underestimated in existing studies relative to paleoclimate archives. Large hydrological changes occur and are linked to an enhanced dynamical response. We conclude that dust indirect effects could potentially have a significant impact on the model-data mismatch that exists for paleoclimates.