A comparison of direct and indirect analytical approaches to measuring total nicotine equivalents in urine.

PubMed

Taghavi, Taraneh; Novalen, Maria; Lerman, Caryn; George, Tony P; Tyndale, Rachel F

2018-05-31

Total nicotine equivalents (TNE), the sum of nicotine and metabolites in urine, is a valuable tool for evaluating nicotine exposure. Most methods for measuring TNE involve two-step enzymatic hydrolysis for indirect quantification of glucuronide metabolites. Here, we describe a rapid, low-cost direct liquid chromatography - tandem mass spectrometry (LCMS) assay. In 139 smokers' urine samples, Bland-Altman, correlation, and regression analyses were used to investigate differences in quantification of nicotine and metabolites, TNE, and nicotine metabolite ratio (NMR) between direct and indirect LCMS methods. DNA from a subset (n=97 smokers) was genotyped for UGT2B10*2 and UGT2B17*2 and the known impact of these variants was evaluated using urinary ratios determined by the direct versus indirect method. The direct method showed high accuracy (0-9% bias) and precision (3-14% coefficient of variation) with similar distribution of nicotine metabolites to literary estimates and good agreement between the direct and indirect methods for nicotine, cotinine, and 3-hydroxycotinine (ratios 0.99-1.07), but less agreement for their respective glucuronides (ratios 1.16-4.17). The direct method identified urinary 3HC+3HC-GLUC/COT as having the highest concordance with plasma NMR and provided substantially better estimations of the established genetic impact of glucuronidation variants compared to the indirect method. Direct quantification of nicotine and metabolites is less time-consuming and less costly, and provides accurate estimates of nicotine intake, metabolism rate and the impact of genetic variation in smokers. Lower cost and maintenance combined with high accuracy and reproducibility make the direct method ideal for smoking biomarker, NMR and pharmacogenomics studies. Copyright ©2018, American Association for Cancer Research.

Estimation of leaf area index and foliage clumping in deciduous forests using digital photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chianucci, Francesco; Cutini, Andrea

2013-04-01

Rapid, reliable and meaningful estimates of leaf area index (LAI) are essential to the characterization of forest ecosystems. In this contribution the accuracy of both fisheye and non-fisheye digital photography for the estimation of forest leaf area in deciduous stands was evaluated. We compared digital hemispherical photography (DHP), the most widely used technique that measures the gap fraction at multiple zenith angles, with methods that measure the gap fraction at a single zenith angle, namely 57.5 degree photography and cover photography (DCP). Comparison with other different gap fraction methods used to calculate LAI such as canopy transmittance measurements from AccuPAR ceptometer and LAI- 2000 Plant Canopy Analyzer (PCA) were also performed. LAI estimated from all these indirect methods were compared with direct measurements obtained by litter traps (LAILT). We applied these methods in 10 deciduous stands of Quercus cerris, Castanea sativa and Fagus sylvatica, the most common deciduous species in Italy, where LAILT ranged from 3.9 to 7.3. DHP and DCP provided good indirect estimates of LAILT, and outperformed the other indirect methods. The DCP method provided estimates of crown porosity, crown cover, foliage cover and the clumping index at the zenith, but required assumptions about the light extinction coefficient at the zenith (k), to accurately estimate LAI. Cover photography provided good indirect estimates of LAI assuming a spherical leaf angle distribution, even though k appeared to decrease as LAI increased, thus affecting the accuracy of LAI estimates in DCP. In contrast, the accuracy of LAI estimates in DHP appeared insensitive to LAILT values, but the method was sensitive to photographic exposure, gamma-correction and was more time-consuming than DCP. Foliage clumping was estimated from all the photographic methods by analyzing either gap size distribution (DCP) or gap fraction distribution (DHP). Foliage clumping was also calculated from PCA and compared with DHP. The studied stands were characterized by fairly homogeneous canopies with higher within-crown clumping than between-crowns clumping; only the segmented analysis of gap fraction for each ring of the fisheye images was found to provide useful clumping index in such homogeneous canopies. By contrast, the 1-azimuth segment method employed in PCA poorly detected clumping in dense canopies. We conclude both fisheye and non-fisheye photographic methods are suitable for dense deciduous forests. Cover photography holds great promise as a means to quickly obtain inexpensive estimates of LAI over large areas. However, in situations where no direct reference measurements of k are available, we recommend using both DHP and DCP, in order to cross-calibrate the two methods; DCP could then be used for more routinely indirect measurement and monitoring of LAI. Keywords: digital hemispherical photography, cover photography, litter trap, AccuPAR ceptometer, LAI-2000.

Evaluating Cardiovascular Health Disparities Using Estimated Race/Ethnicity: A Validation Study.

PubMed

Bykov, Katsiaryna; Franklin, Jessica M; Toscano, Michele; Rawlins, Wayne; Spettell, Claire M; McMahill-Walraven, Cheryl N; Shrank, William H; Choudhry, Niteesh K

2015-12-01

Methods of estimating race/ethnicity using administrative data are increasingly used to examine and target disparities; however, there has been no validation of these methods using clinically relevant outcomes. To evaluate the validity of the indirect method of race/ethnicity identification based on place of residence and surname for assessing clinically relevant outcomes. A total of 2387 participants in the Post-MI Free Rx Event and Economic Evaluation (MI FREEE) trial who had both self-reported and Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding method (BISG)-estimated race/ethnicity information available. We used tests of interaction to compare differences in the effect of providing full drug coverage for post-MI medications on adherence and rates of major vascular events or revascularization for white and nonwhite patients based upon self-reported and indirect racial/ethnic assignment. The impact of full coverage on clinical events differed substantially when based upon self-identified race (HR=0.97 for whites, HR=0.65 for nonwhites; interaction P-value=0.05); however, it did not differ among race/ethnicity groups classified using indirect methods (HR=0.87 for white and nonwhites; interaction P-value=0.83). The impact on adherence was the same for self-reported and BISG-estimated race/ethnicity for 2 of the 3 medication classes studied. Quantitatively and qualitatively different results were obtained when indirectly estimated race/ethnicity was used, suggesting that these techniques may not accurately describe aspects of race/ethnicity related to actual health behaviors.

[Methodologies for estimating the indirect costs of traffic accidents].

PubMed

Carozzi, Soledad; Elorza, María Eugenia; Moscoso, Nebel Silvana; Ripari, Nadia Vanina

2017-01-01

Traffic accidents generate multiple costs to society, including those associated with the loss of productivity. However, there is no consensus about the most appropriate methodology for estimating those costs. The aim of this study was to review methods for estimating indirect costs applied in crash cost studies. A thematic review of the literature was carried out between 1995 and 2012 in PubMed with the terms cost of illness, indirect cost, road traffic injuries, productivity loss. For the assessment of costs we used the the human capital method, on the basis of the wage-income lost during the time of treatment and recovery of patients and caregivers. In the case of premature death or total disability, the discount rate was applied to obtain the present value of lost future earnings. The computed years arose by subtracting to life expectancy at birth the average age of those affected who are not incorporated into the economically active life. The interest in minimizing the problem is reflected in the evolution of the implemented methodologies. We expect that this review is useful to estimate efficiently the real indirect costs of traffic accidents.

The direct and indirect costs of both overweight and obesity: a systematic review.

PubMed

Dee, Anne; Kearns, Karen; O'Neill, Ciaran; Sharp, Linda; Staines, Anthony; O'Dwyer, Victoria; Fitzgerald, Sarah; Perry, Ivan J

2014-04-16

The rising prevalence of overweight and obesity places a financial burden on health services and on the wider economy. Health service and societal costs of overweight and obesity are typically estimated by top-down approaches which derive population attributable fractions for a range of conditions associated with increased body fat or bottom-up methods based on analyses of cross-sectional or longitudinal datasets. The evidence base of cost of obesity studies is continually expanding, however, the scope of these studies varies widely and a lack of standardised methods limits comparisons nationally and internationally. The objective of this review is to contribute to this knowledge pool by examining direct costs and indirect (lost productivity) costs of both overweight and obesity to provide comparable estimates. This review was undertaken as part of the introductory work for the Irish cost of overweight and obesity study and examines inconsistencies in the methodologies of cost of overweight and obesity studies. Studies which evaluated the direct costs and indirect costs of both overweight and obesity were included. A computerised search of English language studies addressing direct and indirect costs of overweight and obesity in adults between 2001 and 2011 was conducted. Reference lists of reports, articles and earlier reviews were scanned to identify additional studies. Five published articles were deemed eligible for inclusion. Despite the limited scope of this review there was considerable heterogeneity in methodological approaches and findings. In the four studies which presented separate estimates for direct and indirect costs of overweight and obesity, the indirect costs were higher, accounting for between 54% and 59% of the estimated total costs. A gradient exists between increasing BMI and direct healthcare costs and indirect costs due to reduced productivity and early premature mortality. Determining precise estimates for the increases is mired by the large presence of heterogeneity among the available cost estimation literature. To improve the availability of quality evidence an international consensus on standardised methods for cost of obesity studies is warranted. Analyses of nationally representative cross-sectional datasets augmented by data from primary care are likely to provide the best data for international comparisons.

Estimating forest canopy bulk density using six indirect methods

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; Joe Scott; Kathy Gray; James Reardon

2005-01-01

Canopy bulk density (CBD) is an important crown characteristic needed to predict crown fire spread, yet it is difficult to measure in the field. Presented here is a comprehensive research effort to evaluate six indirect sampling techniques for estimating CBD. As reference data, detailed crown fuel biomass measurements were taken on each tree within fixed-area plots...

Evaluation of approaches for estimating the accuracy of genomic prediction in plant breeding

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. Results The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. Conclusions The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the fastest and produced the least biased, the most precise, robust and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. These properties argue for routinely using Methods 5 and 7 to assess predictive accuracy in genomic selection studies. PMID:24314298

Evaluation of approaches for estimating the accuracy of genomic prediction in plant breeding.

PubMed

Ould Estaghvirou, Sidi Boubacar; Ogutu, Joseph O; Schulz-Streeck, Torben; Knaak, Carsten; Ouzunova, Milena; Gordillo, Andres; Piepho, Hans-Peter

2013-12-06

In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the fastest and produced the least biased, the most precise, robust and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. These properties argue for routinely using Methods 5 and 7 to assess predictive accuracy in genomic selection studies.

Infant mortality in the Marshall Islands.

PubMed

Levy, S J; Booth, H

1988-12-01

Levy and Booth present previously unpublished infant mortality rates for the Marshall Islands. They use an indirect method to estimate infant mortality from the 1973 and 1980 censuses, then apply indirect and direct methods of estimation to data from the Marshall Islands Women's Health Survey of 1985. Comparing the results with estimates of infant mortality obtained from vital registration data enables them to estimate the extent of underregistration of infant deaths. The authors conclude that 1973 census appears to be the most valid information source. Direct estimates from the Women's Health Survey data suggest that infant mortality has increased since 1970-1974, whereas the indirect estimates indicate a decreasing trend in infant mortality rates, converging with the direct estimates in more recent years. In view of increased efforts to improve maternal and child health in the mid-1970s, the decreasing trend is plausible. It is impossible to estimate accurately infant mortality in the Marshall Islands during 1980-1984 from the available data. Estimates based on registration data for 1975-1979 are at least 40% too low. The authors speculate that the estimate of 33 deaths per 1000 live births obtained from registration data for 1984 is 40-50% too low. In round figures, a value of 60 deaths per 1000 may be taken as the final estimate for 1980-1984.

Indirect Estimates of Jaw Muscle Tension in Children with Suspected Hypertonia, Children with Suspected Hypotonia, and Matched Controls

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Connaghan, Kathryn P.; Moore, Christopher A.

2013-01-01

Purpose: In this study, the authors compared indirect estimates of jaw-muscle tension in children with suspected muscle-tone abnormalities with age- and gender-matched controls. Method: Jaw movement and muscle activation were measured in children (ages 3 years, 11 months, to 10 years) with suspected muscle-tone abnormalities (Down syndrome or…

Comparing methodologies for the allocation of overhead and capital costs to hospital services.

PubMed

Tan, Siok Swan; van Ineveld, Bastianus Martinus; Redekop, William Ken; Hakkaart-van Roijen, Leona

2009-06-01

Typically, little consideration is given to the allocation of indirect costs (overheads and capital) to hospital services, compared to the allocation of direct costs. Weighted service allocation is believed to provide the most accurate indirect cost estimation, but the method is time consuming. To determine whether hourly rate, inpatient day, and marginal mark-up allocation are reliable alternatives for weighted service allocation. The cost approaches were compared independently for appendectomy, hip replacement, cataract, and stroke in representative general hospitals in The Netherlands for 2005. Hourly rate allocation and inpatient day allocation produce estimates that are not significantly different from weighted service allocation. Hourly rate allocation may be a strong alternative to weighted service allocation for hospital services with a relatively short inpatient stay. The use of inpatient day allocation would likely most closely reflect the indirect cost estimates obtained by the weighted service method.

IN-RESIDENCE, MULTIPLE ROUTE EXPOSURES TO CHLORPYRIFOS AND DIAZINON ESTIMATED BY INDIRECT METHOD MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

One of the objectives of the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS) is to estimate exposures to several pollutants in multiple media and determine their distributions for the population of Arizona. This paper presents modeling methods used to estimate exposure dist...

Use of direct versus indirect preparation data for assessing risk associated with airborne exposures at asbestos-contaminated sites.

PubMed

Goldade, Mary Patricia; O'Brien, Wendy Pott

2014-01-01

At asbestos-contaminated sites, exposure assessment requires measurement of airborne asbestos concentrations; however, the choice of preparation steps employed in the analysis has been debated vigorously among members of the asbestos exposure and risk assessment communities for many years. This study finds that the choice of preparation technique used in estimating airborne amphibole asbestos exposures for risk assessment is generally not a significant source of uncertainty. Conventionally, the indirect preparation method has been less preferred by some because it is purported to result in false elevations in airborne asbestos concentrations, when compared to direct analysis of air filters. However, airborne asbestos sampling in non-occupational settings is challenging because non-asbestos particles can interfere with the asbestos measurements, sometimes necessitating analysis via indirect preparation. To evaluate whether exposure concentrations derived from direct versus indirect preparation techniques differed significantly, paired measurements of airborne Libby-type amphibole, prepared using both techniques, were compared. For the evaluation, 31 paired direct and indirect preparations originating from the same air filters were analyzed for Libby-type amphibole using transmission electron microscopy. On average, the total Libby-type amphibole airborne exposure concentration was 3.3 times higher for indirect preparation analysis than for its paired direct preparation analysis (standard deviation = 4.1), a difference which is not statistically significant (p = 0.12, two-tailed, Wilcoxon signed rank test). The results suggest that the magnitude of the difference may be larger for shorter particles. Overall, neither preparation technique (direct or indirect) preferentially generates more precise and unbiased data for airborne Libby-type amphibole concentration estimates. The indirect preparation method is reasonable for estimating Libby-type amphibole exposure and may be necessary given the challenges of sampling in environmental settings. Relative to the larger context of uncertainties inherent in the risk assessment process, uncertainties associated with the use of airborne Libby-type amphibole exposure measurements derived from indirect preparation analysis are low. Use of exposure measurements generated by either direct or indirect preparation analyses is reasonable to estimate Libby-type Amphibole exposures in a risk assessment.

Consumptive use and resulting leach-field water budget of a mountain residence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stannard, David; Paul, William T.; Laws, Roy; Poeter, Eileen P.

2010-01-01

Consumptive use of water in a dispersed rural community has important implications for maximum housing density and its effects on sustainability of groundwater withdrawals. Recent rapid growth in Colorado, USA has stressed groundwater supplies in some areas, thereby increasing scrutiny of approximate methods developed there more than 30 years ago to estimate consumptive use that are still used today. A foothills residence was studied during a 2-year period to estimate direct and indirect water losses. Direct losses are those from evaporation inside the home, plus any outdoor use. Indirect loss is evapotranspiration (ET) from the residential leach-field in excess of ET from the immediately surrounding terrain. Direct losses were 18.7% of water supply to the home, substantially larger than estimated historically in Colorado. A new approach was developed to estimate indirect loss, using chamber methods together with the Penman–Monteith model. Indirect loss was only 0.9% of water supply, but this value probably was anomalously low due to a recurring leach-field malfunction. Resulting drainage beneath the leach-field was 80.4% of water supply. Guidelines are given to apply the same methodology at other sites and combine results with a survey of leach-fields in an area to obtain more realistic average values of ET losses.

Direct parametric reconstruction in dynamic PET myocardial perfusion imaging: in vivo studies.

PubMed

Petibon, Yoann; Rakvongthai, Yothin; El Fakhri, Georges; Ouyang, Jinsong

2017-05-07

Dynamic PET myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) used in conjunction with tracer kinetic modeling enables the quantification of absolute myocardial blood flow (MBF). However, MBF maps computed using the traditional indirect method (i.e. post-reconstruction voxel-wise fitting of kinetic model to PET time-activity-curves-TACs) suffer from poor signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Direct reconstruction of kinetic parameters from raw PET projection data has been shown to offer parametric images with higher SNR compared to the indirect method. The aim of this study was to extend and evaluate the performance of a direct parametric reconstruction method using in vivo dynamic PET MPI data for the purpose of quantifying MBF. Dynamic PET MPI studies were performed on two healthy pigs using a Siemens Biograph mMR scanner. List-mode PET data for each animal were acquired following a bolus injection of ~7-8 mCi of 18 F-flurpiridaz, a myocardial perfusion agent. Fully-3D dynamic PET sinograms were obtained by sorting the coincidence events into 16 temporal frames covering ~5 min after radiotracer administration. Additionally, eight independent noise realizations of both scans-each containing 1/8th of the total number of events-were generated from the original list-mode data. Dynamic sinograms were then used to compute parametric maps using the conventional indirect method and the proposed direct method. For both methods, a one-tissue compartment model accounting for spillover from the left and right ventricle blood-pools was used to describe the kinetics of 18 F-flurpiridaz. An image-derived arterial input function obtained from a TAC taken in the left ventricle cavity was used for tracer kinetic analysis. For the indirect method, frame-by-frame images were estimated using two fully-3D reconstruction techniques: the standard ordered subset expectation maximization (OSEM) reconstruction algorithm on one side, and the one-step late maximum a posteriori (OSL-MAP) algorithm on the other side, which incorporates a quadratic penalty function. The parametric images were then calculated using voxel-wise weighted least-square fitting of the reconstructed myocardial PET TACs. For the direct method, parametric images were estimated directly from the dynamic PET sinograms using a maximum a posteriori (MAP) parametric reconstruction algorithm which optimizes an objective function comprised of the Poisson log-likelihood term, the kinetic model and a quadratic penalty function. Maximization of the objective function with respect to each set of parameters was achieved using a preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm with a specifically developed pre-conditioner. The performance of the direct method was evaluated by comparing voxel- and segment-wise estimates of [Formula: see text], the tracer transport rate (ml · min -1 · ml -1 ), to those obtained using the indirect method applied to both OSEM and OSL-MAP dynamic reconstructions. The proposed direct reconstruction method produced [Formula: see text] maps with visibly lower noise than the indirect method based on OSEM and OSL-MAP reconstructions. At normal count levels, the direct method was shown to outperform the indirect method based on OSL-MAP in the sense that at matched level of bias, reduced regional noise levels were obtained. At lower count levels, the direct method produced [Formula: see text] estimates with significantly lower standard deviation across noise realizations than the indirect method based on OSL-MAP at matched bias level. In all cases, the direct method yielded lower noise and standard deviation than the indirect method based on OSEM. Overall, the proposed direct reconstruction offered a better bias-variance tradeoff than the indirect method applied to either OSEM and OSL-MAP. Direct parametric reconstruction as applied to in vivo dynamic PET MPI data is therefore a promising method for producing MBF maps with lower variance.

Direct parametric reconstruction in dynamic PET myocardial perfusion imaging: in-vivo studies

PubMed Central

Petibon, Yoann; Rakvongthai, Yothin; Fakhri, Georges El; Ouyang, Jinsong

2017-01-01

Dynamic PET myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) used in conjunction with tracer kinetic modeling enables the quantification of absolute myocardial blood flow (MBF). However, MBF maps computed using the traditional indirect method (i.e. post-reconstruction voxel-wise fitting of kinetic model to PET time-activity-curves -TACs) suffer from poor signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Direct reconstruction of kinetic parameters from raw PET projection data has been shown to offer parametric images with higher SNR compared to the indirect method. The aim of this study was to extend and evaluate the performance of a direct parametric reconstruction method using in-vivo dynamic PET MPI data for the purpose of quantifying MBF. Dynamic PET MPI studies were performed on two healthy pigs using a Siemens Biograph mMR scanner. List-mode PET data for each animal were acquired following a bolus injection of ~7-8 mCi of 18F-flurpiridaz, a myocardial perfusion agent. Fully-3D dynamic PET sinograms were obtained by sorting the coincidence events into 16 temporal frames covering ~5 min after radiotracer administration. Additionally, eight independent noise realizations of both scans - each containing 1/8th of the total number of events - were generated from the original list-mode data. Dynamic sinograms were then used to compute parametric maps using the conventional indirect method and the proposed direct method. For both methods, a one-tissue compartment model accounting for spillover from the left and right ventricle blood-pools was used to describe the kinetics of 18F-flurpiridaz. An image-derived arterial input function obtained from a TAC taken in the left ventricle cavity was used for tracer kinetic analysis. For the indirect method, frame-by-frame images were estimated using two fully-3D reconstruction techniques: the standard Ordered Subset Expectation Maximization (OSEM) reconstruction algorithm on one side, and the One-Step Late Maximum a Posteriori (OSL-MAP) algorithm on the other side, which incorporates a quadratic penalty function. The parametric images were then calculated using voxel-wise weighted least-square fitting of the reconstructed myocardial PET TACs. For the direct method, parametric images were estimated directly from the dynamic PET sinograms using a maximum a posteriori (MAP) parametric reconstruction algorithm which optimizes an objective function comprised of the Poisson log-likelihood term, the kinetic model and a quadratic penalty function. Maximization of the objective function with respect to each set of parameters was achieved using a preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm with a specifically developed pre-conditioner. The performance of the direct method was evaluated by comparing voxel- and segment-wise estimates of K1, the tracer transport rate (mL.min−1.mL−1), to those obtained using the indirect method applied to both OSEM and OSL-MAP dynamic reconstructions. The proposed direct reconstruction method produced K1 maps with visibly lower noise than the indirect method based on OSEM and OSL-MAP reconstructions. At normal count levels, the direct method was shown to outperform the indirect method based on OSL-MAP in the sense that at matched level of bias, reduced regional noise levels were obtained. At lower count levels, the direct method produced K1 estimates with significantly lower standard deviation across noise realizations than the indirect method based on OSL-MAP at matched bias level. In all cases, the direct method yielded lower noise and standard deviation than the indirect method based on OSEM. Overall, the proposed direct reconstruction offered a better bias-variance tradeoff than the indirect method applied to either OSEM and OSL-MAP. Direct parametric reconstruction as applied to in-vivo dynamic PET MPI data is therefore a promising method for producing MBF maps with lower variance. PMID:28379843

Direct parametric reconstruction in dynamic PET myocardial perfusion imaging: in vivo studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petibon, Yoann; Rakvongthai, Yothin; El Fakhri, Georges; Ouyang, Jinsong

2017-05-01

Dynamic PET myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) used in conjunction with tracer kinetic modeling enables the quantification of absolute myocardial blood flow (MBF). However, MBF maps computed using the traditional indirect method (i.e. post-reconstruction voxel-wise fitting of kinetic model to PET time-activity-curves-TACs) suffer from poor signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Direct reconstruction of kinetic parameters from raw PET projection data has been shown to offer parametric images with higher SNR compared to the indirect method. The aim of this study was to extend and evaluate the performance of a direct parametric reconstruction method using in vivo dynamic PET MPI data for the purpose of quantifying MBF. Dynamic PET MPI studies were performed on two healthy pigs using a Siemens Biograph mMR scanner. List-mode PET data for each animal were acquired following a bolus injection of ~7-8 mCi of 18F-flurpiridaz, a myocardial perfusion agent. Fully-3D dynamic PET sinograms were obtained by sorting the coincidence events into 16 temporal frames covering ~5 min after radiotracer administration. Additionally, eight independent noise realizations of both scans—each containing 1/8th of the total number of events—were generated from the original list-mode data. Dynamic sinograms were then used to compute parametric maps using the conventional indirect method and the proposed direct method. For both methods, a one-tissue compartment model accounting for spillover from the left and right ventricle blood-pools was used to describe the kinetics of 18F-flurpiridaz. An image-derived arterial input function obtained from a TAC taken in the left ventricle cavity was used for tracer kinetic analysis. For the indirect method, frame-by-frame images were estimated using two fully-3D reconstruction techniques: the standard ordered subset expectation maximization (OSEM) reconstruction algorithm on one side, and the one-step late maximum a posteriori (OSL-MAP) algorithm on the other side, which incorporates a quadratic penalty function. The parametric images were then calculated using voxel-wise weighted least-square fitting of the reconstructed myocardial PET TACs. For the direct method, parametric images were estimated directly from the dynamic PET sinograms using a maximum a posteriori (MAP) parametric reconstruction algorithm which optimizes an objective function comprised of the Poisson log-likelihood term, the kinetic model and a quadratic penalty function. Maximization of the objective function with respect to each set of parameters was achieved using a preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm with a specifically developed pre-conditioner. The performance of the direct method was evaluated by comparing voxel- and segment-wise estimates of {{K}1} , the tracer transport rate (ml · min-1 · ml-1), to those obtained using the indirect method applied to both OSEM and OSL-MAP dynamic reconstructions. The proposed direct reconstruction method produced {{K}1} maps with visibly lower noise than the indirect method based on OSEM and OSL-MAP reconstructions. At normal count levels, the direct method was shown to outperform the indirect method based on OSL-MAP in the sense that at matched level of bias, reduced regional noise levels were obtained. At lower count levels, the direct method produced {{K}1} estimates with significantly lower standard deviation across noise realizations than the indirect method based on OSL-MAP at matched bias level. In all cases, the direct method yielded lower noise and standard deviation than the indirect method based on OSEM. Overall, the proposed direct reconstruction offered a better bias-variance tradeoff than the indirect method applied to either OSEM and OSL-MAP. Direct parametric reconstruction as applied to in vivo dynamic PET MPI data is therefore a promising method for producing MBF maps with lower variance.

Effect of Body Position on Energy Expenditure of Preterm Infants as Determined by Simultaneous Direct and Indirect Calorimetry.

PubMed

Bell, Edward F; Johnson, Karen J; Dove, Edwin L

2017-04-01

Background  Indirect calorimetry is the standard method for estimating energy expenditure in clinical research. Few studies have evaluated indirect calorimetry in infants by comparing it with simultaneous direct calorimetry. Our purpose was (1) to compare the energy expenditure of preterm infants determined by these two methods, direct calorimetry and indirect calorimetry; and (2) to examine the effect of body position, supine or prone, on energy expenditure. Study Design  We measured energy expenditure by simultaneous direct (heat loss by gradient-layer calorimeter corrected for heat storage) and indirect calorimetry (whole-body oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production) in 15 growing preterm infants during two consecutive interfeeding intervals, once in the supine position and once in the prone position. Results  The mean energy expenditure for all measurements in both positions did not differ significantly by the method used: 2.82 (standard deviation [SD] 0.42) kcal/kg/h by direct calorimetry and 2.78 (SD 0.48) kcal/kg/h by indirect calorimetry. The energy expenditure was significantly lower, by 10%, in the prone than in the supine position, whether examined by direct calorimetry (2.67 vs. 2.97 kcal/kg/h, p  < 0.001) or indirect calorimetry (2.64 vs. 2.92 kcal/kg/h, p  = 0.017). Conclusion  Direct calorimetry and indirect calorimetry gave similar estimates of energy expenditure. Energy expenditure was 10% lower in the prone position than in the supine position. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Patient-specific lean body mass can be estimated from limited-coverage computed tomography images.

PubMed

Devriese, Joke; Beels, Laurence; Maes, Alex; van de Wiele, Christophe; Pottel, Hans

2018-06-01

In PET/CT, quantitative evaluation of tumour metabolic activity is possible through standardized uptake values, usually normalized for body weight (BW) or lean body mass (LBM). Patient-specific LBM can be estimated from whole-body (WB) CT images. As most clinical indications only warrant PET/CT examinations covering head to midthigh, the aim of this study was to develop a simple and reliable method to estimate LBM from limited-coverage (LC) CT images and test its validity. Head-to-toe PET/CT examinations were retrospectively retrieved and semiautomatically segmented into tissue types based on thresholding of CT Hounsfield units. LC was obtained by omitting image slices. Image segmentation was validated on the WB CT examinations by comparing CT-estimated BW with actual BW, and LBM estimated from LC images were compared with LBM estimated from WB images. A direct method and an indirect method were developed and validated on an independent data set. Comparing LBM estimated from LC examinations with estimates from WB examinations (LBMWB) showed a significant but limited bias of 1.2 kg (direct method) and nonsignificant bias of 0.05 kg (indirect method). This study demonstrates that LBM can be estimated from LC CT images with no significant difference from LBMWB.

SAM 2.1—A computer program for plotting and formatting surveying data for estimating peak discharges by the slope-area method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hortness, J.E.

2004-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measures discharge in streams using several methods. However, measurement of peak discharges is often impossible or impractical due to difficult access, inherent danger of making measurements during flood events, and timing often associated with flood events. Thus, many peak discharge values often are calculated after the fact by use of indirect methods. The most common indirect method for estimating peak dis- charges in streams is the slope-area method. This, like other indirect methods, requires measuring the flood profile through detailed surveys. Processing the survey data for efficient entry into computer streamflow models can be time demanding; SAM 2.1 is a program designed to expedite that process. The SAM 2.1 computer program is designed to be run in the field on a portable computer. The program processes digital surveying data obtained from an electronic surveying instrument during slope- area measurements. After all measurements have been completed, the program generates files to be input into the SAC (Slope-Area Computation program; Fulford, 1994) or HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System; Brunner, 2001) computer streamflow models so that an estimate of the peak discharge can be calculated.

Plumage condition in laying hens: genetic parameters for direct and indirect effects in two purebred layer lines.

PubMed

Brinker, Tessa; Bijma, Piter; Visscher, Jeroen; Rodenburg, T Bas; Ellen, Esther D

2014-05-29

Feather pecking is a major welfare issue in laying hen industry that leads to mortality. Due to a ban on conventional cages in the EU and on beak trimming in some countries of the EU, feather pecking will become an even bigger problem. Its severity depends both on the victim receiving pecking and on its group mates inflicting pecking (indirect effects), which together determine plumage condition of the victim. Plumage condition may depend, therefore, on both the direct genetic effect of an individual itself and on the indirect genetic effects of its group mates. Here, we present estimated genetic parameters for direct and indirect effects on plumage condition of different body regions in two purebred layer lines, and estimates of genetic correlations between body regions. Feather condition scores (FCS) were recorded at 40 weeks of age for neck, back, rump and belly and these four scores were added-up into a total FCS. A classical animal model and a direct-indirect effects model were used to estimate genetic parameters for FCS. In addition, a bivariate model with mortality (0/1) was used to account for mortality before recording FCS. Due to mortality during the first 23 weeks of laying, 5363 (for W1) and 5089 (for WB) FCS records were available. Total heritable variance for FCS ranged from 1.5% to 9.8% and from 9.8% to 53.6% when estimated respectively with the classical animal and the direct-indirect effects model. The direct-indirect effects model had a significantly higher likelihood. In both lines, 70% to 94% of the estimated total heritable variation in FCS was due to indirect effects. Using bivariate analysis of FCS and mortality did not affect estimates of genetic parameters. Genetic correlations were high between adjacent regions for FCS on neck, back, and rump but moderate to low for belly with other regions. Our results show that 70% to 94% of the heritable variation in FCS relates to indirect effects, indicating that methods of genetic selection that include indirect genetic effects offer perspectives to improve plumage condition in laying hens. This, in turn could reduce a major welfare problem.

Comparison of direct and indirect methods of measuring airborne chrysotile fibre concentration.

PubMed

Eypert-Blaison, Celine; Veissiere, Sylvie; Rastoix, Olivier; Kauffer, Edmond

2010-01-01

Transmission electron microscopy observations most frequently form a basis for estimating asbestos fibre concentration in the environment and in buildings with asbestos-containing materials. Sampled fibres can be transferred to microscope grids by applying either a direct [ISO (1995) Draft International ISO/DIS 10312. Ambient air. Determination of asbestos fibres. Direct transfer transmission electron microscopy procedure. Geneva, Switzerland: International Standardization Organization] or an indirect [AFNOR (1996) Détermination de la concentration en fibres d'amiante par microscopie électronique à transmission-Méthode indirecte. Cedex, France: AFNOR, p. 42; ISO (1997) Draft International ISO/DIS 13794. Ambient air. Determination of asbestos fibres. Indirect-transfer transmission electron microscopy procedure. Geneva, Switzerland: International Standardization Organization] method. In the latter case, ISO Standard 13794 recommends filtering calcination residues either on a polycarbonate (PC) filter (PC indirect method) or on a cellulose ester (CE) membrane (CE indirect method). The PC indirect method requires that fibres deposited on a PC filter be covered by a carbon layer, whereas in the CE indirect method, the CE membrane has to be directly processed using a method described in ISO Standard 10312. The purpose of this study was to compare results obtained using, on the one hand, direct preparation methods and, on the other hand, PC indirect or CE indirect methods, for counting asbestos fibres deposited on filters as a result of liquid filtration or air sampling. In direct method-based preparation, we observed that an etching time of 6-14 min does not affect the measured densities, except for fibres <1 microm deposited by liquid filtration. Moreover, in all cases, the direct method gives higher densities than the PC indirect method because of possible fibre disappearance when using the carbon evaporator implemented in the PC indirect method. The CE membrane used for sample preparation in the CE indirect method is collapsed prior to passing it through the carbon evaporator, so the fibres are less likely to disappear at this stage. We then note that the resulting fibre densities for chrysotile-loaded filters prepared using the direct method are close to those obtained with filters prepared using the CE indirect method. Our study therefore shows that, under the implemented experimental conditions, the PC and CE indirect preparation methods described in ISO Standard 13794 are not equivalent.

Harris-Benedict equation estimations of energy needs as compared to measured 24-h energy expenditure by indirect calorimetry in people with early to mid-stage Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Gaba, Ann; Zhang, Kuan; Moskowitz, Carol B; Boozer, Carol N; Marder, Karen

2008-10-01

Weight loss and energy metabolism are important clinical research areas in understanding the disease mechanisms in Huntington's disease. Having an accurate method to estimate expected total energy expenditure would likely facilitate the development of studies about these features of the disease. The Harris-Benedict equation is a formula commonly used to estimate basal energy expenditure of individuals, adjusted for height, weight, age and gender. This estimate is then multiplied by a physical activity factor to estimate total daily energy needs to maintain the given weight. Data from 24-h indirect calorimetry was utilized to derive an adjustment formula for the physical activity factor of the Harris-Benedict equation for 13 early to mid-stage Huntington's disease patients. The adjusted activity factor provided the most accurate estimate of energy needs. This adjusted formula can be used in clinical assessments of Huntington's disease patients, as well as in research studies when indirect calorimetry has not been performed.

A method for estimating both the solubility parameters and molar volumes of liquids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fedors, R. F.

1974-01-01

Development of an indirect method of estimating the solubility parameter of high molecular weight polymers. The proposed method of estimating the solubility parameter, like Small's method, is based on group additive constants, but is believed to be superior to Small's method for two reasons: (1) the contribution of a much larger number of functional groups have been evaluated, and (2) the method requires only a knowledge of structural formula of the compound.

Sport fishing: a comparison of three indirect methods for estimating benefits.

Treesearch

Darrell L. Hueth; Elizabeth J. Strong; Roger D. Fight

1988-01-01

Three market-based methods for estimating values of sport fishing were compared by using a common data base. The three approaches were the travel-cost method, the hedonic travel-cost method, and the household-production method. A theoretical comparison of the resulting values showed that the results were not fully comparable in several ways. The comparison of empirical...

Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

PubMed

Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

2003-06-01

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

Abstract: Inference and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects With Latent Variable Models.

PubMed

Falk, Carl F; Biesanz, Jeremy C

2011-11-30

Models specifying indirect effects (or mediation) and structural equation modeling are both popular in the social sciences. Yet relatively little research has compared methods that test for indirect effects among latent variables and provided precise estimates of the effectiveness of different methods. This simulation study provides an extensive comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals and for making inferences about indirect effects with latent variables. We compared the percentile (PC) bootstrap, bias-corrected (BC) bootstrap, bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrap, likelihood-based confidence intervals (Neale & Miller, 1997), partial posterior predictive (Biesanz, Falk, and Savalei, 2010), and joint significance tests based on Wald tests or likelihood ratio tests. All models included three reflective latent variables representing the independent, dependent, and mediating variables. The design included the following fully crossed conditions: (a) sample size: 100, 200, and 500; (b) number of indicators per latent variable: 3 versus 5; (c) reliability per set of indicators: .7 versus .9; (d) and 16 different path combinations for the indirect effect (α = 0, .14, .39, or .59; and β = 0, .14, .39, or .59). Simulations were performed using a WestGrid cluster of 1680 3.06GHz Intel Xeon processors running R and OpenMx. Results based on 1,000 replications per cell and 2,000 resamples per bootstrap method indicated that the BC and BC a bootstrap methods have inflated Type I error rates. Likelihood-based confidence intervals and the PC bootstrap emerged as methods that adequately control Type I error and have good coverage rates.

Factors associated with adverse clinical outcomes among obstetric trainees

PubMed Central

Aiken PhD, Catherine E.; Aiken, Abigail; Park, Hannah; Brockelsby, Jeremy C.; Prentice, Andrew

2016-01-01

Objective To determine whether UK obstetric trainees transitioning from directly to indirectly-supervised practice have a higher likelihood of adverse patient outcomes from operative deliveries compared to other indirectly supervised trainees and to examine whether performing more procedures under direct supervision is associated with fewer adverse outcomes in initial indirect practice. Methods We examined all deliveries (13,861) conducted by obstetricians at a single centre over 5 years (2008-2013). Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to compare estimated blood loss, maternal trauma, umbilical arterial pH, delayed neonatal respiration, failed instrumental delivery, and critical incidents for trainees in their first indirectly-supervised year with trainees in all other years of indirect practice. Outcomes for trainees in their first indirectly-supervised 3 months were compared to their outcomes for the remainder of the year. Linear regression was used to examine the relationship between number of procedures performed under direct supervision and initial outcomes under indirect supervision. Results Trainees in their first indirectly-supervised year had a higher likelihood of >2 litres estimated blood loss at any delivery (OR 1.32;CI(1.01-1.64) p<0.05) and of failed instrumental delivery (OR 2.33;CI(1.37-3.29) p<0.05) compared with other indirectly-supervised trainees. Other measured outcomes showed no significant differences. Within the first three months of indirect supervision, the likelihood of operative vaginal deliveries with >1litre estimated blood loss (OR 2.54;CI(1.88-3.20) p<0.05) was higher compared to the remainder of the first year. Performing more deliveries under direct supervision prior to beginning indirectly-supervised training was associated with decreased risk of >1litre estimated blood loss (p<0.05). Conclusions Obstetric trainees in their first year of indirectly-supervised practice have a higher likelihood of immediate adverse delivery outcomes, which are primarily maternal rather than neonatal. Undertaking more directly supervised procedures prior to transitioning to indirectly-supervised practice may reduce adverse outcomes, suggesting that experience is a key consideration in obstetric training programme design. PMID:26077215

The Impact of Using Different Methods to Assess Completeness of 24-Hour Urine Collection on Estimating Dietary Sodium.

PubMed

Wielgosz, Andreas; Robinson, Christopher; Mao, Yang; Jiang, Ying; Campbell, Norm R C; Muthuri, Stella; Morrison, Howard

2016-06-01

The standard for population-based surveillance of dietary sodium intake is 24-hour urine testing; however, this may be affected by incomplete urine collection. The impact of different indirect methods of assessing completeness of collection on estimated sodium ingestion has not been established. The authors enlisted 507 participants from an existing community study in 2009 to collect 24-hour urine samples. Several methods of assessing completeness of urine collection were tested. Mean sodium intake varied between 3648 mg/24 h and 7210 mg/24 h depending on the method used. Excluding urine samples collected for longer or shorter than 24 hours increased the estimated urine sodium excretion, even when corrections for the variation in timed collections were applied. Until an accurate method of indirectly assessing completeness of urine collection is identified, the gold standard of administering para-aminobenzoic acid is recommended. Efforts to ensure participants collect complete urine samples are also warranted. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of worksite health interventions involving reduced work hours and physical exercise on sickness absence costs.

PubMed

von Thiele Schwarz, Ulrica; Hasson, Henna

2012-05-01

To investigate the effects of physical exercise during work hours (PE) and reduced work hours (RWH) on direct and indirect costs associated with sickness absence (SA). Sickness absence and related costs at six workplaces, matched and randomized to three conditions (PE, RWH, and referents), were retrieved from company records and/or estimated using salary conversion methods or value-added equations on the basis of interview data. Although SA days decreased in all conditions (PE, 11.4%; RWH, 4.9%; referents, 15.9%), costs were reduced in the PE (22.2%) and RWH (4.9%) conditions but not among referents (10.2% increase). Worksite health interventions may generate savings in SA costs. Costs may not be linear to changes in SA days. Combing the friction method with indirect cost estimates on the basis of value-added productivity may help illuminate both direct and indirect SA costs.

Integrated direct/indirect adaptive robust motion trajectory tracking control of pneumatic cylinders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Deyuan; Tao, Guoliang; Zhu, Xiaocong

2013-09-01

This paper studies the precision motion trajectory tracking control of a pneumatic cylinder driven by a proportional-directional control valve. An integrated direct/indirect adaptive robust controller is proposed. The controller employs a physical model based indirect-type parameter estimation to obtain reliable estimates of unknown model parameters, and utilises a robust control method with dynamic compensation type fast adaptation to attenuate the effects of parameter estimation errors, unmodelled dynamics and disturbances. Due to the use of projection mapping, the robust control law and the parameter adaption algorithm can be designed separately. Since the system model uncertainties are unmatched, the recursive backstepping technology is adopted to design the robust control law. Extensive comparative experimental results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller and its performance robustness to parameter variations and sudden disturbances.

Indirect costs in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A review of the economic burden on employers and individuals in the United States

PubMed Central

Patel, Jeetvan G; Nagar, Saurabh P; Dalal, Anand A

2014-01-01

Objective To review and summarize existing literature on the indirect burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the US. Methods Medline, Scopus, and OvidSP databases were searched using defined search terms to identify relevant studies. Eligible studies were published in English between January 2000 and April 2012 and calculated the indirect burden of COPD in a US population in terms of prevalence, incidence or costs of productivity loss, disability, morbidity, or mortality. Results Of 53 studies identified, eleven met eligibility criteria, with data years spanning 1987–2009. Estimates of workforce participation range from 56% to 69% among individuals with COPD and from 65% to 77% among individuals without COPD. Approximately 13%–18% of those with COPD are limited in the amount or type of work they can do and one-third or more experience general activity limitation. Estimates of restricted activity days range from 27–63 days per year. Estimates of mean annual sick leave and/or disability days among employed individuals with COPD range from 1.3–19.4 days. Estimates of bed confinement range from 13–32 days per year. Estimated mean annual indirect costs were $893–$2,234/person (US dollars) with COPD ($1,521–$3,348 in 2010 [US dollars]) and varied with the population studied, specific cost outcomes, and economic inputs. In studies that assessed total (direct and indirect) costs, indirect costs accounted for 27%–61% of total costs, depending on the population studied. Conclusions COPD is associated with substantial indirect costs. The disease places a burden on employers in terms of lost productivity and associated costs and on individuals in terms of lost income related to absenteeism, activity limitation, and disability. Consideration of indirect as well as direct costs is necessary to gain a more complete view of the societal burden of COPD. PMID:24672234

A new method for indirectly estimating infiltration of paddy fields in situ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Yunqiang; Su, Baolin; Wang, Hongqi; He, Jingyi

2018-06-01

Infiltration is one of the major procedures in water balance research and pollution load estimation in paddy fields. In this study, a new method for indirectly estimating infiltration of paddy fields in situ was proposed and implemented in Taihu Lake basin. Since when there were no rainfall, irrigation and artificial drainage, the water depth variation process of a paddy field is only influenced by evapotranspiration and infiltration (E + F). Firstly, (E + F) was estimated by deciding the steady decreasing rate of water depth; then the evapotranspiration (ET) of the paddy field was calculated by using the crop coefficient method with the recommended FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation; finally, the infiltration of the paddy field was obtained by subtracting ET from (E + F). Results show that the mean infiltration of the studied paddy field during rice jointing-booting period was 7.41 mm day-1, and the mean vertical infiltration and lateral seepage of the paddy field were 5.46 and 1.95 mm day-1 respectively.

Measuring zebrafish turning rate.

PubMed

Mwaffo, Violet; Butail, Sachit; di Bernardo, Mario; Porfiri, Maurizio

2015-06-01

Zebrafish is becoming a popular animal model in preclinical research, and zebrafish turning rate has been proposed for the analysis of activity in several domains. The turning rate is often estimated from the trajectory of the fish centroid that is output by commercial or custom-made target tracking software run on overhead videos of fish swimming. However, the accuracy of such indirect methods with respect to the turning rate associated with changes in heading during zebrafish locomotion is largely untested. Here, we compare two indirect methods for the turning rate estimation using the centroid velocity or position data, with full shape tracking for three different video sampling rates. We use tracking data from the overhead video recorded at 60, 30, and 15 frames per second of zebrafish swimming in a shallow water tank. Statistical comparisons of absolute turning rate across methods and sampling rates indicate that, while indirect methods are indistinguishable from full shape tracking, the video sampling rate significantly influences the turning rate measurement. The results of this study can aid in the selection of the video capture frame rate, an experimental design parameter in zebrafish behavioral experiments where activity is an important measure.

Global Search Capabilities of Indirect Methods for Impulsive Transfers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Hong-Xin; Casalino, Lorenzo; Luo, Ya-Zhong

2015-09-01

An optimization method which combines an indirect method with homotopic approach is proposed and applied to impulsive trajectories. Minimum-fuel, multiple-impulse solutions, with either fixed or open time are obtained. The homotopic approach at hand is relatively straightforward to implement and does not require an initial guess of adjoints, unlike previous adjoints estimation methods. A multiple-revolution Lambert solver is used to find multiple starting solutions for the homotopic procedure; this approach can guarantee to obtain multiple local solutions without relying on the user's intuition, thus efficiently exploring the solution space to find the global optimum. The indirect/homotopic approach proves to be quite effective and efficient in finding optimal solutions, and outperforms the joint use of evolutionary algorithms and deterministic methods in the test cases.

Characterizing source-sink dynamics with genetic parentage assignments

Treesearch

M. Zachariah Peery; Steven R. Beissinger; Roger F. House; Martine Berube; Laurie A. Hall; Anna Sellas; Per J. Palsboll

2008-01-01

Source-sink dynamics have been suggested to characterize the population structure of many species, but the prevalence of source-sink systems in nature is uncertain because of inherent challenges in estimating migration rates among populations. Migration rates are often difficult to estimate directly with demographic methods, and indirect genetic methods are subject to...

Accuracy and precision of two indirect methods for estimating canopy fuels

Treesearch

Abran Steele-Feldman; Elizabeth Reinhardt; Russell A. Parsons

2006-01-01

We compared the accuracy and precision of digital hemispherical photography and the LI-COR LAI-2000 plant canopy analyzer as predictors of canopy fuels. We collected data on 12 plots in western Montana under a variety of lighting and sky conditions, and used a variety of processing methods to compute estimates. Repeated measurements from each method displayed...

Indirect genetic estimates of breeding population size in the polyploid green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris).

PubMed

Israel, J A; May, B

2010-03-01

The utility of genetic measures for kinship reconstruction in polysomic species is not well evaluated. We developed a framework to test hypotheses about estimating breeding population size indirectly from collections of outmigrating green sturgeon juveniles. We evaluated a polysomic dataset, in allelic frequency and phenotypic formats, from green sturgeon to describe the relationship among known progeny from experimental families. The distributions of relatedness values for kin classes were used for reconstructing green sturgeon pedigrees from juveniles of unknown relationship. We compared three rarefaction functions that described the relationship between the number of kin groups and number of samples in a pedigree to estimate the annual abundance of spawners contributing to the threatened green sturgeon Southern Distinct Population Segment in the upper Sacramento River. Results suggested the estimated abundance of breeding green sturgeon remained roughly constant in the upper Sacramento River over a 5-year period, ranging from 10 to 28 individuals depending on the year and rarefaction method. These results demonstrate an empirical understanding for the distribution of relatedness values among individuals is a benefit for assessing pedigree reconstruction methods and identifying misclassification rates. Monitoring of rare species using these indirect methods is feasible and can provide insight into breeding and ontogenetic behaviour. While this framework was developed for specific application to studying fish populations in a riverscape, the framework could be advanced to improve genetic estimation of breeding population size and to identify important breeding habitats of rare species when combined with finer-scaled sampling of offspring.

Indirect scaling methods for testing quantitative emotion theories.

PubMed

Junge, Martin; Reisenzein, Rainer

2013-01-01

Two studies investigated the utility of indirect scaling methods, based on graded pair comparisons, for the testing of quantitative emotion theories. In Study 1, we measured the intensity of relief and disappointment caused by lottery outcomes, and in Study 2, the intensity of disgust evoked by pictures, using both direct intensity ratings and graded pair comparisons. The stimuli were systematically constructed to reflect variables expected to influence the intensity of the emotions according to theoretical models of relief/disappointment and disgust, respectively. Two probabilistic scaling methods were used to estimate scale values from the pair comparison judgements: Additive functional measurement (AFM) and maximum likelihood difference scaling (MLDS). The emotion models were fitted to the direct and indirect intensity measurements using nonlinear regression (Study 1) and analysis of variance (Study 2). Both studies found substantially improved fits of the emotion models for the indirectly determined emotion intensities, with their advantage being evident particularly at the level of individual participants. The results suggest that indirect scaling methods yield more precise measurements of emotion intensity than rating scales and thereby provide stronger tests of emotion theories in general and quantitative emotion theories in particular.

Monitoring the size and protagonists of the drug market: combining supply and demand data sources and estimates.

PubMed

Rossi, Carla

2013-06-01

The size of the illicit drug market is an important indicator to assess the impact on society of an important part of the illegal economy and to evaluate drug policy and law enforcement interventions. The extent of illicit drug use and of the drug market can essentially only be estimated by indirect methods based on indirect measures and on data from various sources, as administrative data sets and surveys. The combined use of several methodologies and data sets allows to reduce biases and inaccuracies of estimates obtained on the basis of each of them separately. This approach has been applied to Italian data. The estimation methods applied are capture-recapture methods with latent heterogeneity and multiplier methods. Several data sets have been used, both administrative and survey data sets. First, the retail dealer prevalence has been estimated on the basis of administrative data, then the user prevalence by multiplier methods. Using information about behaviour of dealers and consumers from survey data, the average amount of a substance used or sold and the average unit cost have been estimated and allow estimating the size of the drug market. The estimates have been obtained using a supply-side approach and a demand-side approach and have been compared. These results are in turn used for estimating the interception rate for the different substances in term of the value of the substance seized with respect to the total value of the substance to be sold at retail prices.

Evaluation of a reproductive index to estimate grasshopper sparrow and eastern meadowlark reproductive success

USGS Publications Warehouse

Althoff, Donald P.; Gipson, P.S.; Pontius, J.S.; Japuntich, R.D.

2009-01-01

We compared an index of reproductive success based on breeding behavior to actual nest fates of grasshopper sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum) and eastern meadowlarks (Sturnella magna) on 12 plots (4-ha). Concordance of results between the two methods was 58% for grasshopper sparrows and 42% for eastern meadowlarks on a plot-by-plot basis. The indirect method yielded higher estimates of reproductive activity than nest monitoring for the balance of the plots,. There was little evidence that brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater) parasitism influenced the estimates of reproductive success using the indirect method. We concluded that nests and about-to-fledge nestlings were missed during searches on some plots. It may be appropriate to use an indirect method to more efficiently survey territories and/or plots for species with hard-to-find nests or when monitoring large areas. Use of a reproductive index may be appropriate and more time-efficient than nest searching and monitoring for comparing management effects such as burning, grazing, haying, military training, and other localized disturbances that are likely to affect reproductive success of grasshopper sparrows and eastern meadowlarks. However, nest monitoring may be necessary for more precise estimates of productivity necessary for long-term monitoring. Nest monitoring results are also likely to allow for direct comparisons to results from other studies because the index method requires intimate knowledge of the species being evaluated - a factor that could lead to reduced precision because the experience level of technicians relying only on behavioral cues from study-to-study is likely to vary considerably.

Inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons of competing interventions: meta-epidemiological study.

PubMed

Song, Fujian; Xiong, Tengbin; Parekh-Bhurke, Sheetal; Loke, Yoon K; Sutton, Alex J; Eastwood, Alison J; Holland, Richard; Chen, Yen-Fu; Glenny, Anne-Marie; Deeks, Jonathan J; Altman, Doug G

2011-08-16

To investigate the agreement between direct and indirect comparisons of competing healthcare interventions. Meta-epidemiological study based on sample of meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. Data sources Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and PubMed. Inclusion criteria Systematic reviews that provided sufficient data for both direct comparison and independent indirect comparisons of two interventions on the basis of a common comparator and in which the odds ratio could be used as the outcome statistic. Inconsistency measured by the difference in the log odds ratio between the direct and indirect methods. The study included 112 independent trial networks (including 1552 trials with 478,775 patients in total) that allowed both direct and indirect comparison of two interventions. Indirect comparison had already been explicitly done in only 13 of the 85 Cochrane reviews included. The inconsistency between the direct and indirect comparison was statistically significant in 16 cases (14%, 95% confidence interval 9% to 22%). The statistically significant inconsistency was associated with fewer trials, subjectively assessed outcomes, and statistically significant effects of treatment in either direct or indirect comparisons. Owing to considerable inconsistency, many (14/39) of the statistically significant effects by direct comparison became non-significant when the direct and indirect estimates were combined. Significant inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons may be more prevalent than previously observed. Direct and indirect estimates should be combined in mixed treatment comparisons only after adequate assessment of the consistency of the evidence.

Inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons of competing interventions: meta-epidemiological study

PubMed Central

Xiong, Tengbin; Parekh-Bhurke, Sheetal; Loke, Yoon K; Sutton, Alex J; Eastwood, Alison J; Holland, Richard; Chen, Yen-Fu; Glenny, Anne-Marie; Deeks, Jonathan J; Altman, Doug G

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate the agreement between direct and indirect comparisons of competing healthcare interventions. Design Meta-epidemiological study based on sample of meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. Data sources Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and PubMed. Inclusion criteria Systematic reviews that provided sufficient data for both direct comparison and independent indirect comparisons of two interventions on the basis of a common comparator and in which the odds ratio could be used as the outcome statistic. Main outcome measure Inconsistency measured by the difference in the log odds ratio between the direct and indirect methods. Results The study included 112 independent trial networks (including 1552 trials with 478 775 patients in total) that allowed both direct and indirect comparison of two interventions. Indirect comparison had already been explicitly done in only 13 of the 85 Cochrane reviews included. The inconsistency between the direct and indirect comparison was statistically significant in 16 cases (14%, 95% confidence interval 9% to 22%). The statistically significant inconsistency was associated with fewer trials, subjectively assessed outcomes, and statistically significant effects of treatment in either direct or indirect comparisons. Owing to considerable inconsistency, many (14/39) of the statistically significant effects by direct comparison became non-significant when the direct and indirect estimates were combined. Conclusions Significant inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons may be more prevalent than previously observed. Direct and indirect estimates should be combined in mixed treatment comparisons only after adequate assessment of the consistency of the evidence. PMID:21846695

Sizes of the Largest Possible Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States - Summary of a Workshop, September 8-9, 2008, Golden, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, Russell L.

2009-01-01

Most probabilistic seismic-hazard assessments require an estimate of Mmax, the magnitude (M) of the largest earthquake that is thought possible within a specified area. In seismically active areas such as some plate boundaries, large earthquakes occur frequently enough that Mmax might have been observed directly during the historical period. In less active regions like most of the Central and Eastern United States and adjacent Canada, large earthquakes are much less frequent and generally Mmax must be estimated indirectly. The indirect-estimation methods are many, their results vary widely, and opinions differ as to which methods are valid. This lack of consensus about Mmax estimation increases the uncertainty of hazard assessments for planned nuclear power reactors and increases design and construction costs. Accordingly, the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission held an open workshop on Mmax estimation in the Central and Eastern United States and adjacent Canada. The workshop was held on Monday and Tuesday, September 8 and 9, 2008, at the U.S. Geological Survey offices in Golden, Colorado. Thirty-five people attended. The workshop goals were to reach consensus on one or more of: (1) the relative merits of the various methods of Mmax estimation, (2) which methods are invalid, (3) which methods are promising but not yet ready for use, and (4) what research is needed to reach consensus on the values and relative importance of the individual estimation methods.

Estimating Subglottal Pressure from Neck-Surface Acceleration during Normal Voice Production

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fryd, Amanda S.; Van Stan, Jarrad H.; Hillman, Robert E.; Mehta, Daryush D.

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential for estimating subglottal air pressure using a neck-surface accelerometer and to compare the accuracy of predicting subglottal air pressure relative to predicting acoustic sound pressure level (SPL). Method: Indirect estimates of subglottal pressure (P[subscript sg]') were obtained…

Shear-wave velocity and site-amplification factors for 50 Australian sites determined by the spectral analysis of surface waves method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kayen, Robert E.; Carkin, Bradley A.; Allen, Trevor; Collins, Clive; McPherson, Andrew; Minasian, Diane L.

2015-01-01

One-dimensional shear-wave velocity (VS ) profiles are presented at 50 strong motion sites in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia. The VS profiles are estimated with the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) method. The SASW method is a noninvasive method that indirectly estimates the VS at depth from variations in the Rayleigh wave phase velocity at the surface.

The Minicommunity Design to Assess Indirect Effects of Vaccination.

PubMed

Halloran, M Elizabeth

2012-08-01

We propose the minicommunity design to estimate indirect effects of vaccination. Establishing indirect effects of vaccination in unvaccinated subpopulations could have important implications for global vaccine policies. In the minicommunity design, the household or other small transmission unit serves as the cluster in which to estimate indirect effects of vaccination, similar to studies in larger communities to estimate indirect, total, and overall effects. Examples from the literature include studies in small transmission units to estimate indirect effects of pertussis, pneumococcal, influenza, and cholera vaccines. We characterize the minicommunity design by several methodologic considerations, including the assignment mechanism, ascertainment, the role of transmission outside the transmission unit, and the relation of the size of the transmission unit to number of people vaccinated. The minicommunity study for indirect effects is contrasted with studies to estimate vaccine effects on infectiousness and protective effects under conditions of household exposure within small transmission units. The minicommunity design can be easily implemented in individually randomized studies by enrolling and following-up members of households of the randomized individuals. The methodology for the minicommunity design for estimating indirect effects of vaccination deserves much future research.

A comparison of consumptive-use estimates derived from the simplified surface energy balance approach and indirect reporting methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maupin, Molly A.; Senay, Gabriel B.; Kenny, Joan F.; Savoca, Mark E.

2012-01-01

Recent advances in remote-sensing technology and Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEB) methods can provide accurate and repeatable estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) when used with satellite observations of irrigated lands. Estimates of ET are generally considered equivalent to consumptive use (CU) because they represent the part of applied irrigation water that is evaporated, transpired, or otherwise not available for immediate reuse. The U.S. Geological Survey compared ET estimates from SSEB methods to CU data collected for 1995 using indirect methods as part of the National Water Use Information Program (NWUIP). Ten-year (2000-2009) average ET estimates from SSEB methods were derived using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 1-kilometer satellite land surface temperature and gridded weather datasets from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). County-level CU estimates for 1995 were assembled and referenced to 1-kilometer grid cells to synchronize with the SSEB ET estimates. Both datasets were seasonally and spatially weighted to represent the irrigation season (June-September) and those lands that were identified in the county as irrigated. A strong relation (R2 greater than 0.7) was determined between NWUIP CU and SSEB ET data. Regionally, the relation is stronger in arid western states than in humid eastern states, and positive and negative biases are both present at state-level comparisons. SSEB ET estimates can play a major role in monitoring and updating county-based CU estimates by providing a quick and cost-effective method to detect major year-to-year changes at county levels, as well as providing a means to disaggregate county-based ET estimates to sub-county levels. More research is needed to identify the causes for differences in state-based relations.

Allometric method to estimate leaf area index for row crops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Leaf area index (LAI) is critical for predicting plant metabolism, biomass production, evapotranspiration, and greenhouse gas sequestration, but direct LAI measurements are difficult and labor intensive. Several methods are available to measure LAI indirectly or calculate LAI using allometric method...

Synthetic Estimation of the Distribution of Mentally Disabled Adults for Allocations to Ohio's Mental Health Board Areas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarjoura, David; And Others

1993-01-01

A synthetic method of estimating relative annual prevalence of severely mentally disabled (SMD) adults across Ohio's mental health board areas was evaluated. Indirect evidence of accuracy for the method, which relies on local catchment area data and local census data, is provided by comparison with actual SMD adult counts in federal programs. (SLD)

Causal mediation analysis with a latent mediator.

PubMed

Albert, Jeffrey M; Geng, Cuiyu; Nelson, Suchitra

2016-05-01

Health researchers are often interested in assessing the direct effect of a treatment or exposure on an outcome variable, as well as its indirect (or mediation) effect through an intermediate variable (or mediator). For an outcome following a nonlinear model, the mediation formula may be used to estimate causally interpretable mediation effects. This method, like others, assumes that the mediator is observed. However, as is common in structural equations modeling, we may wish to consider a latent (unobserved) mediator. We follow a potential outcomes framework and assume a generalized structural equations model (GSEM). We provide maximum-likelihood estimation of GSEM parameters using an approximate Monte Carlo EM algorithm, coupled with a mediation formula approach to estimate natural direct and indirect effects. The method relies on an untestable sequential ignorability assumption; we assess robustness to this assumption by adapting a recently proposed method for sensitivity analysis. Simulation studies show good properties of the proposed estimators in plausible scenarios. Our method is applied to a study of the effect of mother education on occurrence of adolescent dental caries, in which we examine possible mediation through latent oral health behavior. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Hand-held indirect calorimeter offers advantages compared with prediction equations, in a group of overweight women, to determine resting energy expenditures and estimated total energy expenditures during research screening.

PubMed

Spears, Karen E; Kim, Hyunsook; Behall, Kay M; Conway, Joan M

2009-05-01

To compare standardized prediction equations to a hand-held indirect calorimeter in estimating resting energy and total energy requirements in overweight women. Resting energy expenditure (REE) was measured by hand-held indirect calorimeter and calculated by prediction equations Harris-Benedict, Mifflin-St Jeor, World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization/United Nations University (WHO), and Dietary Reference Intakes (DRI). Physical activity level, assessed by questionnaire, was used to estimate total energy expenditure (TEE). Subjects (n=39) were female nonsmokers older than 25 years of age with body mass index more than 25. Repeated measures analysis of variance, Bland-Altman plot, and fitted regression line of difference. A difference within +/-10% of two methods indicated agreement. Significant proportional bias was present between hand-held indirect calorimeter and prediction equations for REE and TEE (P<0.01); prediction equations overestimated at lower values and underestimated at higher values. Mean differences (+/-standard error) for REE and TEE between hand-held indirect calorimeter and Harris-Benedict were -5.98+/-46.7 kcal/day (P=0.90) and 21.40+/-75.7 kcal/day (P=0.78); between hand-held indirect calorimeter and Mifflin-St Jeor were 69.93+/-46.7 kcal/day (P=0.14) and 116.44+/-75.9 kcal/day (P=0.13); between hand-held indirect calorimeter and WHO were -22.03+/-48.4 kcal/day (P=0.65) and -15.8+/-77.9 kcal/day (P=0.84); and between hand-held indirect calorimeter and DRI were 39.65+/-47.4 kcal/day (P=0.41) and 56.36+/-85.5 kcal/day (P=0.51). Less than 50% of predictive equation values were within +/-10% of hand-held indirect calorimeter values, indicating poor agreement. A significant discrepancy between predicted and measured energy expenditure was observed. Further evaluation of hand-held indirect calorimeter research screening is needed.

Theoretical Analysis of Penalized Maximum-Likelihood Patlak Parametric Image Reconstruction in Dynamic PET for Lesion Detection.

PubMed

Yang, Li; Wang, Guobao; Qi, Jinyi

2016-04-01

Detecting cancerous lesions is a major clinical application of emission tomography. In a previous work, we studied penalized maximum-likelihood (PML) image reconstruction for lesion detection in static PET. Here we extend our theoretical analysis of static PET reconstruction to dynamic PET. We study both the conventional indirect reconstruction and direct reconstruction for Patlak parametric image estimation. In indirect reconstruction, Patlak parametric images are generated by first reconstructing a sequence of dynamic PET images, and then performing Patlak analysis on the time activity curves (TACs) pixel-by-pixel. In direct reconstruction, Patlak parametric images are estimated directly from raw sinogram data by incorporating the Patlak model into the image reconstruction procedure. PML reconstruction is used in both the indirect and direct reconstruction methods. We use a channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) to assess lesion detectability in Patlak parametric images. Simplified expressions for evaluating the lesion detectability have been derived and applied to the selection of the regularization parameter value to maximize detection performance. The proposed method is validated using computer-based Monte Carlo simulations. Good agreements between the theoretical predictions and the Monte Carlo results are observed. Both theoretical predictions and Monte Carlo simulation results show the benefit of the indirect and direct methods under optimized regularization parameters in dynamic PET reconstruction for lesion detection, when compared with the conventional static PET reconstruction.

Two-condition within-participant statistical mediation analysis: A path-analytic framework.

PubMed

Montoya, Amanda K; Hayes, Andrew F

2017-03-01

Researchers interested in testing mediation often use designs where participants are measured on a dependent variable Y and a mediator M in both of 2 different circumstances. The dominant approach to assessing mediation in such a design, proposed by Judd, Kenny, and McClelland (2001), relies on a series of hypothesis tests about components of the mediation model and is not based on an estimate of or formal inference about the indirect effect. In this article we recast Judd et al.'s approach in the path-analytic framework that is now commonly used in between-participant mediation analysis. By so doing, it is apparent how to estimate the indirect effect of a within-participant manipulation on some outcome through a mediator as the product of paths of influence. This path-analytic approach eliminates the need for discrete hypothesis tests about components of the model to support a claim of mediation, as Judd et al.'s method requires, because it relies only on an inference about the product of paths-the indirect effect. We generalize methods of inference for the indirect effect widely used in between-participant designs to this within-participant version of mediation analysis, including bootstrap confidence intervals and Monte Carlo confidence intervals. Using this path-analytic approach, we extend the method to models with multiple mediators operating in parallel and serially and discuss the comparison of indirect effects in these more complex models. We offer macros and code for SPSS, SAS, and Mplus that conduct these analyses. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Estimating soil solution nitrate concentration from dielectric spectra using PLS analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Fast and reliable methods for in situ monitoring of soil nitrate-nitrogen concentration are vital for reducing nitrate-nitrogen losses to ground and surface waters from agricultural systems. While several studies have been done to indirectly estimate nitrate-nitrogen concentration from time domain s...

Method for evaluating multiple mediators: mediating effects of smoking and COPD on the association between the CHRNA5-A3 variant and lung cancer risk.

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Spitz, Margaret R; Amos, Christopher I; Wu, Xifeng; Wetter, David W; Cinciripini, Paul M; Shete, Sanjay

2012-01-01

A mediation model explores the direct and indirect effects between an independent variable and a dependent variable by including other variables (or mediators). Mediation analysis has recently been used to dissect the direct and indirect effects of genetic variants on complex diseases using case-control studies. However, bias could arise in the estimations of the genetic variant-mediator association because the presence or absence of the mediator in the study samples is not sampled following the principles of case-control study design. In this case, the mediation analysis using data from case-control studies might lead to biased estimates of coefficients and indirect effects. In this article, we investigated a multiple-mediation model involving a three-path mediating effect through two mediators using case-control study data. We propose an approach to correct bias in coefficients and provide accurate estimates of the specific indirect effects. Our approach can also be used when the original case-control study is frequency matched on one of the mediators. We employed bootstrapping to assess the significance of indirect effects. We conducted simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed approach, and showed that it provides more accurate estimates of the indirect effects as well as the percent mediated than standard regressions. We then applied this approach to study the mediating effects of both smoking and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on the association between the CHRNA5-A3 gene locus and lung cancer risk using data from a lung cancer case-control study. The results showed that the genetic variant influences lung cancer risk indirectly through all three different pathways. The percent of genetic association mediated was 18.3% through smoking alone, 30.2% through COPD alone, and 20.6% through the path including both smoking and COPD, and the total genetic variant-lung cancer association explained by the two mediators was 69.1%.

[Cost of lost productivity in pharmacoeconomics analysis. Part II. Survey in the expert group].

PubMed

Wrona, Witold; Hermanowski, Tomasz; Jakubczyk, Michał; Golicki, Dominik; Czech, Marcin; Niewada, Maciej; Kolasa, Katarzyna

2011-01-01

The aim of the survey was to collect data on practice and preferences of decision-makers and experts in health economics concerning the role of indirect costs in Poland. The questionnaire contained 18 questions covering the need for indirect costs calculation in economic evaluations and measures used to calculate indirect cost. Fifty four respondents related to health economics returned completed questionnaires. Mean age of respondents was 33,3 years; mean experience in health economics 4.7 years; 43% (23/54) of responders had non-economic background; 30% each were users and doers of health technology assessment reports. All (excluding one) responders indicated that indirect costs should be calculated in pharmacoeconomic studies. Twenty three (i.e., 43%) responders indicated human capital approach as the best method to estimate costs from societal perspective; friction cost method came second best 11%; 42% respondents had no opinion. The doers of economics evaluations pointed to GDP per capita (61%, 11/18), average salary (61%, 11/18), and costs of sick pay or injury benefit (61%, 11/18) as measures which could be used to value production losses. Indirect costs are considered important component of economic evaluations of healthcare interventions in Poland. The lack of widely accepted methods for indirect cost evaluation support further research.

Electric Power Consumption Coefficients for U.S. Industries: Regional Estimation and Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boero, Riccardo

Economic activity relies on electric power provided by electrical generation, transmission, and distribution systems. This paper presents a method developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory to estimate electric power consumption by different industries in the United States. Results are validated through comparisons with existing literature and benchmarking data sources. We also discuss the limitations and applications of the presented method, such as estimating indirect electric power consumption and assessing the economic impact of power outages based on input-output economic models.

[Development of an Excel spreadsheet for meta-analysis of indirect and mixed treatment comparisons].

PubMed

Tobías, Aurelio; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Roqué, Marta

2014-01-01

Meta-analyses in clinical research usually aimed to evaluate treatment efficacy and safety in direct comparison with a unique comparator. Indirect comparisons, using the Bucher's method, can summarize primary data when information from direct comparisons is limited or nonexistent. Mixed comparisons allow combining estimates from direct and indirect comparisons, increasing statistical power. There is a need for simple applications for meta-analysis of indirect and mixed comparisons. These can easily be conducted using a Microsoft Office Excel spreadsheet. We developed a spreadsheet for indirect and mixed effects comparisons of friendly use for clinical researchers interested in systematic reviews, but non-familiarized with the use of more advanced statistical packages. The use of the proposed Excel spreadsheet for indirect and mixed comparisons can be of great use in clinical epidemiology to extend the knowledge provided by traditional meta-analysis when evidence from direct comparisons is limited or nonexistent.

Estimating site occupancy and abundance using indirect detection indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, T.R.; Royle, J. Andrew

2005-01-01

Knowledge of factors influencing animal distribution and abundance is essential in many areas of ecological research, management, and policy-making. Because common methods for modeling and estimating abundance (e.g., capture-recapture, distance sampling) are sometimes not practical for large areas or elusive species, indices are sometimes used as surrogate measures of abundance. We present an extension of the Royle and Nichols (2003) generalization of the MacKenzie et al. (2002) site-occupancy model that incorporates length of the sampling interval into the, model for detection probability. As a result, we obtain a modeling framework that shows how useful information can be extracted from a class of index methods we call indirect detection indices (IDIs). Examples of IDIs include scent station, tracking tube, snow track, tracking plate, and hair snare surveys. Our model is maximum likelihood, and it can be used to estimate site occupancy and model factors influencing patterns of occupancy and abundance in space. Under certain circumstances, it can also be used to estimate abundance. We evaluated model properties using Monte Carlo simulations and illustrate the method with tracking tube and scent station data. We believe this model will be a useful tool for determining factors that influence animal distribution and abundance.

Estimate of the direct and indirect annual cost of bacterial conjunctivitis in the United States

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to estimate both the direct and indirect annual costs of treating bacterial conjunctivitis (BC) in the United States. This was a cost of illness study performed from a U.S. healthcare payer perspective. Methods A comprehensive review of the medical literature was supplemented by data on the annual incidence of BC which was obtained from an analysis of the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) database for the year 2005. Cost estimates for medical visits and laboratory or diagnostic tests were derived from published Medicare CPT fee codes. The cost of prescription drugs was obtained from standard reference sources. Indirect costs were calculated as those due to lost productivity. Due to the acute nature of BC, no cost discounting was performed. All costs are expressed in 2007 U.S. dollars. Results The number of BC cases in the U.S. for 2005 was estimated at approximately 4 million yielding an estimated annual incidence rate of 135 per 10,000. Base-case analysis estimated the total direct and indirect cost of treating patients with BC in the United States at $ 589 million. One- way sensitivity analysis, assuming either a 20% variation in the annual incidence of BC or treatment costs, generated a cost range of $ 469 million to $ 705 million. Two-way sensitivity analysis, assuming a 20% variation in both the annual incidence of BC and treatment costs occurring simultaneously, resulted in an estimated cost range of $ 377 million to $ 857 million. Conclusion The economic burden posed by BC is significant. The findings may prove useful to decision makers regarding the allocation of healthcare resources necessary to address the economic burden of BC in the United States. PMID:19939250

SEASONAL AND REGIONAL VARIATIONS OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOLS OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES: OBSERVATION-BASED ESTIMATES AND MODEL EVALUATION

EPA Science Inventory

Due to the lack of an analytical technique for directly quantifying the atmospheric concentrations of primary (OC_pri) and secondary (OC_sec) organic carbon aerosols, different indirect methods have been developed to estimate their concentrations. In this stu...

An Indirect System Identification Technique for Stable Estimation of Continuous-Time Parameters of the Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex (VOR)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kukreja, Sunil L.; Wallin, Ragnar; Boyle, Richard D.

2013-01-01

The vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) is a well-known dual mode bifurcating system that consists of slow and fast modes associated with nystagmus and saccade, respectively. Estimation of continuous-time parameters of nystagmus and saccade models are known to be sensitive to estimation methodology, noise and sampling rate. The stable and accurate estimation of these parameters are critical for accurate disease modelling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, mission planning for space exploration and pilot safety, etc. This paper presents a novel indirect system identification method for the estimation of continuous-time parameters of VOR employing standardised least-squares with dual sampling rates in a sparse structure. This approach permits the stable and simultaneous estimation of both nystagmus and saccade data. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated via simulation of a continuous-time model of VOR with typical parameters found in clinical studies and in the presence of output additive noise.

Inferring the temperature dependence of population parameters: the effects of experimental design and inference algorithm

PubMed Central

Palamara, Gian Marco; Childs, Dylan Z; Clements, Christopher F; Petchey, Owen L; Plebani, Marco; Smith, Matthew J

2014-01-01

Understanding and quantifying the temperature dependence of population parameters, such as intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity, is critical for predicting the ecological responses to environmental change. Many studies provide empirical estimates of such temperature dependencies, but a thorough investigation of the methods used to infer them has not been performed yet. We created artificial population time series using a stochastic logistic model parameterized with the Arrhenius equation, so that activation energy drives the temperature dependence of population parameters. We simulated different experimental designs and used different inference methods, varying the likelihood functions and other aspects of the parameter estimation methods. Finally, we applied the best performing inference methods to real data for the species Paramecium caudatum. The relative error of the estimates of activation energy varied between 5% and 30%. The fraction of habitat sampled played the most important role in determining the relative error; sampling at least 1% of the habitat kept it below 50%. We found that methods that simultaneously use all time series data (direct methods) and methods that estimate population parameters separately for each temperature (indirect methods) are complementary. Indirect methods provide a clearer insight into the shape of the functional form describing the temperature dependence of population parameters; direct methods enable a more accurate estimation of the parameters of such functional forms. Using both methods, we found that growth rate and carrying capacity of Paramecium caudatum scale with temperature according to different activation energies. Our study shows how careful choice of experimental design and inference methods can increase the accuracy of the inferred relationships between temperature and population parameters. The comparison of estimation methods provided here can increase the accuracy of model predictions, with important implications in understanding and predicting the effects of temperature on the dynamics of populations. PMID:25558365

A MULTI-RESIDUE METHOD FOR THE ANALYSIS OF INSECTICIDES COLLECTED ON COTTON SURFACE WIPES

EPA Science Inventory

A method was developed for the extraction, clean-up, and analysis of multiple pesticides from cotton wipe media used in human exposure studies to collect residues from residential hard surfaces. Measurements of pesticides are critical for estimating dermal and indirect ingestion ...

Evaluation of Four Methods for Predicting Carbon Stocks of Korean Pine Plantations in Heilongjiang Province, China

PubMed Central

Gao, Huilin; Dong, Lihu; Li, Fengri; Zhang, Lianjun

2015-01-01

A total of 89 trees of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) were destructively sampled from the plantations in Heilongjiang Province, P.R. China. The sample trees were measured and calculated for the biomass and carbon stocks of tree components (i.e., stem, branch, foliage and root). Both compatible biomass and carbon stock models were developed with the total biomass and total carbon stocks as the constraints, respectively. Four methods were used to evaluate the carbon stocks of tree components. The first method predicted carbon stocks directly by the compatible carbon stocks models (Method 1). The other three methods indirectly predicted the carbon stocks in two steps: (1) estimating the biomass by the compatible biomass models, and (2) multiplying the estimated biomass by three different carbon conversion factors (i.e., carbon conversion factor 0.5 (Method 2), average carbon concentration of the sample trees (Method 3), and average carbon concentration of each tree component (Method 4)). The prediction errors of estimating the carbon stocks were compared and tested for the differences between the four methods. The results showed that the compatible biomass and carbon models with tree diameter (D) as the sole independent variable performed well so that Method 1 was the best method for predicting the carbon stocks of tree components and total. There were significant differences among the four methods for the carbon stock of stem. Method 2 produced the largest error, especially for stem and total. Methods 3 and Method 4 were slightly worse than Method 1, but the differences were not statistically significant. In practice, the indirect method using the mean carbon concentration of individual trees was sufficient to obtain accurate carbon stocks estimation if carbon stocks models are not available. PMID:26659257

Direct estimation of tracer-kinetic parameter maps from highly undersampled brain dynamic contrast enhanced MRI.

PubMed

Guo, Yi; Lingala, Sajan Goud; Zhu, Yinghua; Lebel, R Marc; Nayak, Krishna S

2017-10-01

The purpose of this work was to develop and evaluate a T 1 -weighted dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) MRI methodology where tracer-kinetic (TK) parameter maps are directly estimated from undersampled (k,t)-space data. The proposed reconstruction involves solving a nonlinear least squares optimization problem that includes explicit use of a full forward model to convert parameter maps to (k,t)-space, utilizing the Patlak TK model. The proposed scheme is compared against an indirect method that creates intermediate images by parallel imaging and compressed sensing before to TK modeling. Thirteen fully sampled brain tumor DCE-MRI scans with 5-second temporal resolution are retrospectively undersampled at rates R = 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 for each dynamic frame. TK maps are quantitatively compared based on root mean-squared-error (rMSE) and Bland-Altman analysis. The approach is also applied to four prospectively R = 30 undersampled whole-brain DCE-MRI data sets. In the retrospective study, the proposed method performed statistically better than indirect method at R ≥ 80 for all 13 cases. This approach provided restoration of TK parameter values with less errors in tumor regions of interest, an improvement compared to a state-of-the-art indirect method. Applied prospectively, the proposed method provided whole-brain, high-resolution TK maps with good image quality. Model-based direct estimation of TK maps from k,t-space DCE-MRI data is feasible and is compatible up to 100-fold undersampling. Magn Reson Med 78:1566-1578, 2017. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Multisite stochastic simulation of daily precipitation from copula modeling with a gamma marginal distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Taesam

2018-05-01

Multisite stochastic simulations of daily precipitation have been widely employed in hydrologic analyses for climate change assessment and agricultural model inputs. Recently, a copula model with a gamma marginal distribution has become one of the common approaches for simulating precipitation at multiple sites. Here, we tested the correlation structure of the copula modeling. The results indicate that there is a significant underestimation of the correlation in the simulated data compared to the observed data. Therefore, we proposed an indirect method for estimating the cross-correlations when simulating precipitation at multiple stations. We used the full relationship between the correlation of the observed data and the normally transformed data. Although this indirect method offers certain improvements in preserving the cross-correlations between sites in the original domain, the method was not reliable in application. Therefore, we further improved a simulation-based method (SBM) that was developed to model the multisite precipitation occurrence. The SBM preserved well the cross-correlations of the original domain. The SBM method provides around 0.2 better cross-correlation than the direct method and around 0.1 degree better than the indirect method. The three models were applied to the stations in the Nakdong River basin, and the SBM was the best alternative for reproducing the historical cross-correlation. The direct method significantly underestimates the correlations among the observed data, and the indirect method appeared to be unreliable.

Evaluation of Direct and Indirect Methods of Sub-Neoglottic Pressure Measurement in Tracheoesophageal Speakers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Sheela, Shekaraiah; Aithal, Venkataraja U; Rajashekhar, Bellur; Lewis, Melissa Glenda

2016-01-01

Tracheoesophageal (TE) prosthetic voice is one of the voice restoration options for individuals who have undergone a total laryngectomy. Aerodynamic analysis of the TE voice provides insight into the physiological changes that occur at the level of the neoglottis with voice prosthesis in situ. The present study is a systematic review and meta-analysis of sub-neoglottic pressure (SNP) measurement in TE speakers by direct and indirect methods. The screening of abstracts and titles was carried out for inclusion of articles using 10 electronic databases spanning the period from 1979 to 2016. Ten articles which met the inclusion criteria were considered for meta-analysis with a pooled age range of 40-83 years. The pooled mean SNP obtained from the direct measurement method was 53.80 cm H2O with a 95% confidence interval of 21.14-86.46 cm H2O, while for the indirect measurement method, the mean SNP was 23.55 cm H2O with a 95% confidence interval of 19.23-27.87 cm H2O. Based on the literature review, the various procedures followed for direct and indirect measurements of SNP contributed to a range of differences in outcome measures. The meta-analysis revealed that the "interpolation method" for indirect estimation of SNP was the most acceptable and valid method in TE speakers. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Indirect and direct recharges in a tropical forested watershed: Mule Hole, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maréchal, Jean-Christophe; Varma, Murari R. R.; Riotte, Jean; Vouillamoz, Jean-Michel; Kumar, M. S. Mohan; Ruiz, Laurent; Sekhar, M.; Braun, Jean-Jacques

2009-01-01

SummaryIt is commonly accepted that forest plays role to modify the water cycle at the watershed scale. However, the impact of forest on aquifer recharge is still discussed: some studies indicate that infiltration is facilitated under forest while other studies suggest a decrease of recharge. This paper presents an estimate of recharge rates to groundwater in a humid forested watershed of India. Recharge estimates are based on the joint use of several methods: chloride mass balance, water table fluctuation, geophysics, groundwater chemistry and flow analysis. Two components of the recharge (direct and indirect) are estimated over 3 years of monitoring (2003-2006). The direct and localized recharges resulting from rainfall over the entire watershed surface area is estimated to 45 mm/yr while the indirect recharge occurring from the stream during flood events is estimated to 30 mm/yr for a 2 km-long stream. Calculated recharge rates, rainfall and runoff measurements are then combined in a water budget to estimate yearly evapotranspiration which ranges from 80% to 90% of the rainfall, i.e. 1050 mm/y as an average. This unexpected high value for a deciduous forest is nevertheless in agreement with the forest worldwide relationship between rainfall and evapotranspiration. The large evapotranspiration from the forest cover contributes to decrease the recharge rate which leads to a lowering of the water table. This is the reason why the stream is highly ephemeral.

Estimating regional long-term economic consequences of natural hazards - a case study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol (Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfurtscheller, C.; Lochner, B.; Brucker, A.

2012-04-01

The interaction of relief-driven alpine natural processes with the anthropogenic sphere often leads to natural disasters which significantly impact on remote alpine economies. When evaluating the effects of such events for future risk prevention strategies, it is essential to assess indirect losses. While the economic measurement of direct effects - the physical impact on structures and infrastructure - seems fairly manageable, less is known about the dimensions of indirect effects, especially on a local and regional scale within the Alps. The lack of standardized terminology, empirical data and methods to estimate indirect economic effects currently hampers profound decision support. In our study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol, we surveyed companies from all sectors of the economy to identify the main drivers of indirect effects and interrupted economic flows. In collaboration with the Federal State administration, we extrapolate the total regional economic effects of this catastrophic event. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we established and analysed a data pool of questionnaire and interview results as well as direct loss data. We mainly focus on the decrease in value creation and the negative impacts on tourism. We observed that disrupted traffic networks can have a highly negative impact, especially for the tourism sector in lateral alpine valleys. Within a month, turnover fell by approximately EUR 3.3 million in the investigated area. In the short run (until August 2006), the shortfall in touristic revenues in the Paznaun valley aggregated to approx. EUR 5.3 million. We observed that overnight stays rebound very quickly so that long-term effects are marginal. In addition, we tried to identify possible economical losers as well as winners of severe hazard impacts. In response to such flood events, high investments are made to improve disaster and risk management. Nearly 70% of the respondents specified the (re)construction sector and similar businesses as main beneficiaries and about 40% mentioned infrastructural improvements, as in streets or protective measures, as the most positive effect. We present an empirical approach to assess the economic consequences of fatal events and provide rules of thumb to quickly estimate indirect economic losses from natural disasters, at least for the Alpine Space, at the local and regional level. The methods and results of this study can help to improve ex-post loss estimations, and with it, ex-ante methods for the cost efficiency of risk reduction measures, e.g. cost-benefit-analysis.

Effect decomposition in the presence of an exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounder

PubMed Central

VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Robins, James M.

2014-01-01

Methods from causal mediation analysis have generalized the traditional approach to direct and indirect effects in the epidemiologic and social science literature by allowing for interaction and non-linearities. However, the methods from the causal inference literature have themselves been subject to a major limitation in that the so-called natural direct and indirect effects that are employed are not identified from data whenever there is a variable that is affected by the exposure, which also confounds the relationship between the mediator and the outcome. In this paper we describe three alternative approaches to effect decomposition that give quantities that can be interpreted as direct and indirect effects, and that can be identified from data even in the presence of an exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounder. We describe a simple weighting-based estimation method for each of these three approaches, illustrated with data from perinatal epidemiology. The methods described here can shed insight into pathways and questions of mediation even when an exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounder is present. PMID:24487213

Energy-based adaptive focusing of waves: application to noninvasive aberration correction of ultrasonic wavefields

PubMed Central

Herbert, Eric; Pernot, Mathieu; Montaldo, Gabriel; Fink, Mathias; Tanter, Mickael

2009-01-01

An aberration correction method based on the maximization of the wave intensity at the focus of an emitting array is presented. The potential of this new adaptive focusing technique is investigated for ultrasonic focusing in biological tissues. The acoustic intensity is maximized non invasively through the direct measurement or indirect estimation of the beam energy at the focus for a series of spatially coded emissions. For ultrasonic waves, the acoustic energy at the desired focus can be indirectly estimated from the local displacements induced in tissues by the ultrasonic radiation force of the beam. Based on the measurement of these displacements, this method allows the precise estimation of the phase and amplitude aberrations and consequently the correction of aberrations along the beam travel path. The proof of concept is first performed experimentally using a large therapeutic array with strong electronic phase aberrations (up to 2π). Displacements induced by the ultrasonic radiation force at the desired focus are indirectly estimated using the time shift of backscattered echoes recorded on the array. The phase estimation is deduced accurately using a direct inversion algorithm which reduces the standard deviation of the phase distribution from σ = 1.89 before correction to σ = 0.53 following correction. The corrected beam focusing quality is verified using a needle hydrophone. The peak intensity obtained through the aberrator is found to be −7.69 dB below the reference intensity obtained without any aberration. Using the phase correction, a sharp focus is restored through the aberrator with a relative peak intensity of −0.89 dB. The technique is tested experimentally using a linear transmit/receive array through a real aberrating layer. The array is used to automatically correct its beam quality, as it both generates the radiation force with coded excitations and indirectly estimates the acoustic intensity at the focus with speckle tracking. This technique could have important implications in the field of High Intensity Focused Ultrasound even in complex configurations such as transcranial, transcostal or deep seated organs. PMID:19942526

Racial residential segregation and preterm birth: built environment as a mediator.

PubMed

Anthopolos, Rebecca; Kaufman, Jay S; Messer, Lynne C; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2014-05-01

Racial residential segregation has been associated with preterm birth. Few studies have examined mediating pathways, in part because, with binary outcomes, indirect effects estimated from multiplicative models generally lack causal interpretation. We develop a method to estimate additive-scale natural direct and indirect effects from logistic regression. We then evaluate whether segregation operates through poor-quality built environment to affect preterm birth. To estimate natural direct and indirect effects, we derive risk differences from logistic regression coefficients. Birth records (2000-2008) for Durham, North Carolina, were linked to neighborhood-level measures of racial isolation and a composite construct of poor-quality built environment. We decomposed the total effect of racial isolation on preterm birth into direct and indirect effects. The adjusted total effect of an interquartile increase in racial isolation on preterm birth was an extra 27 preterm events per 1000 births (risk difference = 0.027 [95% confidence interval = 0.007 to 0.047]). With poor-quality built environment held at the level it would take under isolation at the 25th percentile, the direct effect of an interquartile increase in isolation was 0.022 (-0.001 to 0.042). Poor-quality built environment accounted for 35% (11% to 65%) of the total effect. Our methodology facilitates the estimation of additive-scale natural effects with binary outcomes. In this study, the total effect of racial segregation on preterm birth was partially mediated by poor-quality built environment.

Imaging tropical peatlands in Indonesia using ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and electrical resistivity imaging (ERI): implications for carbon stock estimates and peat soil characterization

Treesearch

X. Comas; N. Terry; M. Warren; R. Kolka; A. Kristiyono; N. Sudiana; D. Nurjaman; T. Darusman

2015-01-01

Current estimates of carbon (C) storage in peatland systems worldwide indicate that tropical peatlands comprise about 15% of the global peat carbon pool. Such estimates are uncertain due to data gaps regarding organic peat soil thickness, volume and C content. We combined a set of indirect geophysical methods (ground-penetrating radar, GPR, and electrical resistivity...

Indirect viscosimetric method is less accurate than ektacytometry for the measurement of red blood cell deformability.

PubMed

Vent-Schmidt, Jens; Waltz, Xavier; Pichon, Aurélien; Hardy-Dessources, Marie-Dominique; Romana, Marc; Connes, Philippe

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to test the accuracy of viscosimetric method to estimate the red blood cell (RBC) deformability properties. Thirty-three subjects were enrolled in this study: 6 healthy subjects (AA), 11 patients with sickle cell-hemoglobin C disease (SC) and 16 patients with sickle cell anemia (SS). Two methods were used to assess RBC deformability: 1) indirect viscosimetric method and 2) ektacytometry. The indirect viscosimetric method was based on the Dintenfass equation where blood viscosity, plasma viscosity and hematocrit are measured and used to calculate an index of RBC rigidity (Tk index). The RBC deformability/rigidity of the three groups was compared using the two methods. Tk index was not different between SS and SC patients and the two groups had higher values than AA group. When ektacytometry was used, RBC deformability was lower in SS and SC groups compared to the AA group and SS and SC patients were different. Although the two measures of RBC deformability were correlated, the association was not very high. Bland and Altman analysis demonstrated a 3.25 bias suggesting a slight difference between the two methods. In addition, the limit of agreement represented 28% (>15%) of the mean values of RBC deformability, showing no interchangeability between the two methods. In conclusion, measuring RBC deformability by indirect viscosimetry is less accurate than by ektacytometry, which is considered the gold standard.

Soil-site relationships of the upland oaks

Treesearch

Willard H. Carmean

1971-01-01

Site quality for upland oaks can be estimated directly by using site-index curves, or indirect estimations can be made by using soil-site prediction methods. Presently available harmonized site-index curves may not be suitable for all upland oak species, or may not be suitable throughout their range. New stem-analysis data show that different species of oak have...

Mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect milk losses due to clinical mastitis in dairy cattle.

PubMed

Detilleux, J; Kastelic, J P; Barkema, H W

2015-03-01

Milk losses associated with mastitis can be attributed to either effects of pathogens per se (i.e., direct losses) or effects of the immune response triggered by intramammary infection (indirect losses). The distinction is important in terms of mastitis prevention and treatment. Regardless, the number of pathogens is often unknown (particularly in field studies), making it difficult to estimate direct losses, whereas indirect losses can be approximated by measuring the association between increased somatic cell count (SCC) and milk production. An alternative is to perform a mediation analysis in which changes in milk yield are allocated into their direct and indirect components. We applied this method on data for clinical mastitis, milk and SCC test-day recordings, results of bacteriological cultures (Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus uberis, coagulase-negative staphylococci, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, and streptococci other than Strep. dysgalactiae and Strep. uberis), and cow characteristics. Following a diagnosis of clinical mastitis, the cow was treated and changes (increase or decrease) in milk production before and after a diagnosis were interpreted counterfactually. On a daily basis, indirect changes, mediated by SCC increase, were significantly different from zero for all bacterial species, with a milk yield decrease (ranging among species from 4 to 33g and mediated by an increase of 1000 SCC/mL/day) before and a daily milk increase (ranging among species from 2 to 12g and mediated by a decrease of 1000 SCC/mL/day) after detection. Direct changes, not mediated by SCC, were only different from zero for coagulase-negative staphylococci before diagnosis (72g per day). We concluded that mixed structural equation models were useful to estimate direct and indirect effects of the presence of clinical mastitis on milk yield. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Simple Estimation Method for Aggregate Government Outsourcing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minicucci, Stephen; Donahue, John D.

2004-01-01

The scholarly and popular debate on the delegation to the private sector of governmental tasks rests on an inadequate empirical foundation, as no systematic data are collected on direct versus indirect service delivery. We offer a simple method for approximating levels of service outsourcing, based on relatively straightforward combinations of and…

Direct Contra Naïve-Indirect Comparison of Clinical Failure Rates between High-Viscosity GIC and Conventional Amalgam Restorations: An Empirical Study

PubMed Central

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2013-01-01

Background Naïve-indirect comparisons are comparisons between competing clinical interventions’ evidence from separate (uncontrolled) trials. Direct comparisons are comparisons within randomised control trials (RCTs). The objective of this empirical study is to test the null-hypothesis that trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparisons and from direct comparisons/RCTs regarding the failure rates of amalgam and direct high-viscosity glass-ionomer cement (HVGIC) restorations in permanent posterior teeth have similar direction and magnitude. Methods A total of 896 citations were identified through systematic literature search. From these, ten and two uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies for HVGIC and amalgam, respectively, were included for naïve-indirect comparison and could be matched with three out twenty RCTs. Summary effects sizes were computed as Odds ratios (OR; 95% Confidence intervals) and compared with those from RCTs. Trend directions were inferred from 95% Confidence interval overlaps and direction of point estimates; magnitudes of performance differences were inferred from the median point estimates (OR) with 25% and 75% percentile range, for both types of comparison. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to test for statistically significant differences between point estimates of both comparison types. Results Trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparison based on evidence from uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies and from direct comparisons based on RCT evidence are not the same. The distributions of the point estimates differed significantly for both comparison types (Mann–Whitney U  =  25, nindirect  =  26; ndirect  =  8; p  =  0.0013, two-tailed). Conclusion The null-hypothesis was rejected. Trends and performance differences inferred from either comparison between HVGIC and amalgam restorations failure rates in permanent posterior teeth are not the same. It is recommended that clinical practice guidance regarding HVGICs should rest on direct comparisons via RCTs and not on naïve-indirect comparisons based on uncontrolled longitudinal studies in order to avoid inflation of effect estimates. PMID:24205220

[Estimation with the capture-recapture method of the number of economic immigrants in Mallorca].

PubMed

Ramos Monserrat, M; March Cerdá, J C

2002-05-15

estimate the number of irregular economic immigrants in Mallorca. We used the capture-recapture method, an indirect method based on contrasts of data from two or more sources. Data were obtained from the Delegación de Gobierno (police and immigration authority), Comisiones Obreras (labor union), and institutions that provide health-related services to immigrants. Individuals were identified by birth date and country of origin. The total number of economic immigrants estimated with this method was 39 392. According to the Delegación de Gobierno data, the number of regular immigrants on the date of our inquiry was 9000. With the capture-recapture method, the number of irregular immigrants in Mallorca was therefore estimated at 30 000. The capture-recapture method can be useful to estimate the population of irregular immigrants in a given area at a given time, if sufficiently precise information on the identity of each individual can be obtained.

Regional economic activity and absenteeism: a new approach to estimating the indirect costs of employee productivity loss.

PubMed

Bankert, Brian; Coberley, Carter; Pope, James E; Wells, Aaron

2015-02-01

This paper presents a new approach to estimating the indirect costs of health-related absenteeism. Productivity losses related to employee absenteeism have negative business implications for employers and these losses effectively deprive the business of an expected level of employee labor. The approach herein quantifies absenteeism cost using an output per labor hour-based method and extends employer-level results to the region. This new approach was applied to the employed population of 3 health insurance carriers. The economic cost of absenteeism was estimated to be $6.8 million, $0.8 million, and $0.7 million on average for the 3 employers; regional losses were roughly twice the magnitude of employer-specific losses. The new approach suggests that costs related to absenteeism for high output per labor hour industries exceed similar estimates derived from application of the human capital approach. The materially higher costs under the new approach emphasize the importance of accurately estimating productivity losses.

Annual national direct and indirect cost estimates of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil

PubMed Central

Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh; Itria, Alexander; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Sartori, Ana Marli Christovam; Rama, Cristina Helena; de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil. METHODS: This cost description study used a "gross-costing" methodology and adopted the health system and societal perspectives. The estimates were grouped into sets of procedures performed in phases of cervical cancer care: the screening, diagnosis and treatment of precancerous lesions and the treatment of cervical cancer. The costs were estimated for the public and private health systems, using data from national health information systems, population surveys, and literature reviews. The cost estimates are presented in 2006 USD. RESULTS: From the societal perspective, the estimated total costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer amounted to USD $1,321,683,034, which was categorized as follows: procedures (USD $213,199,490), visits (USD $325,509,842), transportation (USD $106,521,537) and productivity losses (USD $676,452,166). Indirect costs represented 51% of the total costs, followed by direct medical costs (visits and procedures) at 41% and direct non-medical costs (transportation) at 8%. The public system represented 46% of the total costs, and the private system represented 54%. CONCLUSION: Our national cost estimates of cervical cancer prevention and treatment, indicating the economic importance of cervical cancer screening and care, will be useful in monitoring the effect of the HPV vaccine introduction and are of interest in research and health care management. PMID:26017797

Non-invasive genetic censusing and monitoring of primate populations.

PubMed

Arandjelovic, Mimi; Vigilant, Linda

2018-03-01

Knowing the density or abundance of primate populations is essential for their conservation management and contextualizing socio-demographic and behavioral observations. When direct counts of animals are not possible, genetic analysis of non-invasive samples collected from wildlife populations allows estimates of population size with higher accuracy and precision than is possible using indirect signs. Furthermore, in contrast to traditional indirect survey methods, prolonged or periodic genetic sampling across months or years enables inference of group membership, movement, dynamics, and some kin relationships. Data may also be used to estimate sex ratios, sex differences in dispersal distances, and detect gene flow among locations. Recent advances in capture-recapture models have further improved the precision of population estimates derived from non-invasive samples. Simulations using these methods have shown that the confidence interval of point estimates includes the true population size when assumptions of the models are met, and therefore this range of population size minima and maxima should be emphasized in population monitoring studies. Innovations such as the use of sniffer dogs or anti-poaching patrols for sample collection are important to ensure adequate sampling, and the expected development of efficient and cost-effective genotyping by sequencing methods for DNAs derived from non-invasive samples will automate and speed analyses. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation of four methods for estimating leaf area of isolated trees

Treesearch

P.J. Peper; E.G. McPherson

2003-01-01

The accurate modeling of the physiological and functional processes of urban forests requires information on the leaf area of urban tree species. Several non-destructive, indirect leaf area sampling methods have shown good performance for homogenous canopies. These methods have not been evaluated for use in urban settings where trees are typically isolated and...

Network Mendelian randomization: using genetic variants as instrumental variables to investigate mediation in causal pathways

PubMed Central

Burgess, Stephen; Daniel, Rhian M; Butterworth, Adam S; Thompson, Simon G

2015-01-01

Background: Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants, assumed to be instrumental variables for a particular exposure, to estimate the causal effect of that exposure on an outcome. If the instrumental variable criteria are satisfied, the resulting estimator is consistent even in the presence of unmeasured confounding and reverse causation. Methods: We extend the Mendelian randomization paradigm to investigate more complex networks of relationships between variables, in particular where some of the effect of an exposure on the outcome may operate through an intermediate variable (a mediator). If instrumental variables for the exposure and mediator are available, direct and indirect effects of the exposure on the outcome can be estimated, for example using either a regression-based method or structural equation models. The direction of effect between the exposure and a possible mediator can also be assessed. Methods are illustrated in an applied example considering causal relationships between body mass index, C-reactive protein and uric acid. Results: These estimators are consistent in the presence of unmeasured confounding if, in addition to the instrumental variable assumptions, the effects of both the exposure on the mediator and the mediator on the outcome are homogeneous across individuals and linear without interactions. Nevertheless, a simulation study demonstrates that even considerable heterogeneity in these effects does not lead to bias in the estimates. Conclusions: These methods can be used to estimate direct and indirect causal effects in a mediation setting, and have potential for the investigation of more complex networks between multiple interrelated exposures and disease outcomes. PMID:25150977

Population growth rates of reef sharks with and without fishing on the great barrier reef: robust estimation with multiple models.

PubMed

Hisano, Mizue; Connolly, Sean R; Robbins, William D

2011-01-01

Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and applying multiple assessment methods, to obtain robust estimates of population trends in species threatened by overfishing.

Population Growth Rates of Reef Sharks with and without Fishing on the Great Barrier Reef: Robust Estimation with Multiple Models

PubMed Central

Hisano, Mizue; Connolly, Sean R.; Robbins, William D.

2011-01-01

Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and applying multiple assessment methods, to obtain robust estimates of population trends in species threatened by overfishing. PMID:21966402

Investigation on circular asymmetry of geographical distribution in cancer mortality of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors based on risk maps: analysis of spatial survival data.

PubMed

Tonda, Tetsuji; Satoh, Kenichi; Otani, Keiko; Sato, Yuya; Maruyama, Hirofumi; Kawakami, Hideshi; Tashiro, Satoshi; Hoshi, Masaharu; Ohtaki, Megu

2012-05-01

While there is a considerable number of studies on the relationship between the risk of disease or death and direct exposure from the atomic bomb in Hiroshima, the risk for indirect exposure caused by residual radioactivity has not yet been fully evaluated. One of the reasons is that risk assessments have utilized estimated radiation doses, but that it is difficult to estimate indirect exposure. To evaluate risks for other causes, including indirect radiation exposure, as well as direct exposure, a statistical method is described here that evaluates risk with respect to individual location at the time of atomic bomb exposure instead of radiation dose. In addition, it is also considered to split the risks into separate risks due to direct exposure and other causes using radiation dose. The proposed method is applied to a cohort study of Hiroshima atomic bomb survivors. The resultant contour map suggests that the region west to the hypocenter has a higher risk compared to other areas. This in turn suggests that there exists an impact on risk that cannot be explained by direct exposure.

Indirect effects of radiation induce apoptosis and neuroinflammation in neuronal SH-SY5Y cells.

PubMed

Saeed, Yasmeen; Xie, Bingjie; Xu, Jin; Wang, Hailong; Hassan, Murtaza; Wang, Rui; Hong, Ma; Hong, Qing; Deng, Yulin

2014-12-01

Recent studies have evaluated the role of direct radiation exposure in neurodegenerative disorders; however, association among indirect effects of radiation and neurodegenerative diseases remains rarely discussed. The objective of this study was to estimate the relative risk of neurodegeneration due to direct and indirect effects of radiation. (60)Co gamma ray was used as source of direct radiation whereas irradiated cell conditioned medium (ICCM) was used to mimic the indirect effect of radiation. To determine the potency of ICCM to inhibit neuronal cells survival colony forming assay was performed. The role of ICCM to induce apoptosis in neuronal SH-SY5Y cells was estimated by TUNEL assay and Annexin V/PI assay. Level of oxidative stress and the concentration of inflammatory cytokines after exposing to direct radiation and ICCM were evaluated by ELISA method. Expression of key apoptotic protein following direct and indirect radiation exposure was investigated by western blot technique. Experimental data manifest that ICCM account loss of cell survival and increase apoptotic induction in neuronal SH-SY5Y cells that was dependent on time and dose. Moreover, ICCM stimulate significant release of inflammatory cytokines i.e., tumor necrosis factor TNF-alpha (P < 0.01), Interleukin-1 (IL-1, P < 0.001), and Interleukin-6 (IL-6, P < 0.001) in neuronal SH-SY5Y cells and elevate the level of oxidative stress (MDA, P < 0.01). Up-regulation of key apoptotic protein expression i.e., Bax, Bid, cytochrome C, caspase-8 and caspase-3 confirms the toxicity of ICCM to neuronal cells. This study provides the evidence that indirect effect of radiation can be as much damaging to neuronal cells as direct radiation exposure can be. Hence, more focused research on estimation risks of indirect effect of radiation to CNS at molecular level may help to reduce the uncertainty about cure and cause of several neurodegenerative disorders.

TU-D-209-04: How Useful Are Indirect Dose Metrics for Estimating Peak Skin Dose in Interventional Cardiology?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, A; Pasciak, A

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine if a relationship between indirect dose metrics and PSD could be established for fluoroscopically-guided interventional cardiology procedures. Methods: PSD were measured directly using XR-RV3 radiochromic film for 94 consecutive fluoroscopically guided interventional cardiology procedures performed at two sites. Procedures were both diagnostic and therapeutic in nature. Radiation dose structured reports (RDSR) were collected for each procedure and used to calculate indirect estimates of PSD which were compared to the measured PSD. Reference air kerma (Ka,r) was also compared to the measured PSD. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was calculated for each metric andmore » metrics were compared to measured PSD using a two-tailed t-test. Data were log transformed prior to statistical analysis. Results: Both Ka,r and the calculated PSD were closely correlated with measured PSD at each sites (Ka,r: 0.92 and 0.86, indirect PSD: 0.91 and 0.88). At one site, neither Ka,r nor indirect PSD was significantly different from the measured PSD (p = 0.22 and p=0.054, respectively), while at the second site both Ka,r and indirect PSD were significantly higher than measured PSD (p<0.0001 and p<0.0001, respectively). In almost all cases, both Ka,r and indirect PSD overestimated the true PSD. Conclusions: The use of a range of gantry angles and table positions, along with variation in procedural imaging requirements, limits the utility of indirect dose metrics for predicting PSD for interventional cardiology procedures. A. Kyle Jones and Alexander S. Pasciak are owners of Fluoroscopic Safety, LLC.« less

Estimation of position and velocity for a low dynamic vehicle in near space using nonresolved photometric and astrometric data.

PubMed

Jing, Nan; Li, Chuang; Chong, Yaqin

2017-01-20

An estimation method for indirectly observable parameters for a typical low dynamic vehicle (LDV) is presented. The estimation method utilizes apparent magnitude, azimuth angle, and elevation angle to estimate the position and velocity of a typical LDV, such as a high altitude balloon (HAB). In order to validate the accuracy of the estimated parameters gained from an unscented Kalman filter, two sets of experiments are carried out to obtain the nonresolved photometric and astrometric data. In the experiments, a HAB launch is planned; models of the HAB dynamics and kinematics and observation models are built to use as time update and measurement update functions, respectively. When the HAB is launched, a ground-based optoelectronic detector is used to capture the object images, which are processed using aperture photometry technology to obtain the time-varying apparent magnitude of the HAB. Two sets of actual and estimated parameters are given to clearly indicate the parameter differences. Two sets of errors between the actual and estimated parameters are also given to show how the estimated position and velocity differ with respect to the observation time. The similar distribution curve results from the two scenarios, which agree within 3σ, verify that nonresolved photometric and astrometric data can be used to estimate the indirectly observable state parameters (position and velocity) for a typical LDV. This technique can be applied to small and dim space objects in the future.

Effect of adalimumab on work productivity and indirect costs in moderate to severe Crohn’s disease: A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Binion, David G; Louis, Edouard; Oldenburg, Bas; Mulani, Parvez; Bensimon, Arielle G; Yang, Mei; Chao, Jingdong

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of adalimumab on work productivity and indirect costs in patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) using a meta-analysis of clinical trials. METHODS: Study-level results were pooled from all clinical trials of adalimumab for moderate to severe CD in which work productivity outcomes were evaluated. Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire outcomes (absenteeism, presenteeism and total work productivity impairment [TWPI]) were extracted from adalimumab trials. Meta-analyses were used to estimate pooled averages and 95% CIs of one-year accumulated reductions in work productivity impairment with adalimumab. Pooled averages were multiplied by the 2008 United States national average annual salary ($44,101) to estimate per-patient indirect cost savings during the year following adalimumab initiation. RESULTS: The four included trials (ACCESS, CARE, CHOICE and EXTEND) represented a total of 1202 employed adalimumab-treated patients at baseline. Each study followed patients for a minimum of 20 weeks. Pooled estimates (95% CIs) of one-year accumulated work productivity improvements were as follows: −9% (−10% to −7%) for absenteeism; −22% (−26% to −18%) for presenteeism; and −25% (−30% to −20%) for TWPI. Reductions in absenteeism and TWPI translated into per-patient indirect cost savings (95% CI) of $3,856 ($3,183 to $4,529) and $10,964 ($8,833 to $13,096), respectively. CONCLUSION: Adalimumab provided clinically meaningful improvements in work productivity among patients with moderate to severe CD, which may translate into substantial indirect cost savings from an employer’s perspective. PMID:21912760

Separating Direct and Indirect Turbofan Engine Combustion Noise While Estimating Post-Combustion (Post-Flame) Residence Time Using the Correlation Function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton

2011-01-01

A previous investigation on the presence of direct and indirect combustion noise for a full-scale turbofan engine using a far-field microphone at 130 is extended by also examining signals obtained at two additional downstream directions using far-field microphones at 110 deg and 160 deg. A generalized cross-correlation function technique is used to study the change in propagation time to the far field of the combined direct and indirect combustion noise signal as a sequence of low-pass filters are applied. The filtering procedure used produces no phase distortion. As the low-pass filter frequency is decreased, the travel time increases because the relative amount of direct combustion noise is reduced. The indirect combustion noise signal travels more slowly because in the combustor entropy fluctuations move with the flow velocity, which is slow compared to the local speed of sound. The indirect combustion noise signal travels at acoustic velocities after reaching the turbine and being converted into an acoustic signal. The direct combustion noise is always propagating at acoustic velocities. The results show that the estimated indirect combustion noise time delay values (post-combustion residence times) measured at each angle are fairly consistent with one another for a relevant range of operating conditions and demonstrate source separation of a mixture of direct and indirect combustion noise. The results may lead to a better idea about the acoustics in the combustor and may help develop and validate improved reduced-order physics-based methods for predicting turbofan engine core noise.

The influence of the microbial quality of wastewater, lettuce cultivars and enumeration technique when estimating the microbial contamination of wastewater-irrigated lettuce.

PubMed

Makkaew, P; Miller, M; Cromar, N J; Fallowfield, H J

2017-04-01

This study investigated the volume of wastewater retained on the surface of three different varieties of lettuce, Iceberg, Cos, and Oak leaf, following submersion in wastewater of different microbial qualities (10, 10 2 , 10 3 , and 10 4 E. coli MPN/100 mL) as a surrogate method for estimation of contamination of spray-irrigated lettuce. Uniquely, Escherichia coli was enumerated, after submersion, on both the outer and inner leaves and in a composite sample of lettuce. E. coli were enumerated using two techniques. Firstly, from samples of leaves - the direct method. Secondly, using an indirect method, where the E. coli concentrations were estimated from the volume of wastewater retained by the lettuce and the E. coli concentration of the wastewater. The results showed that different varieties of lettuce retained significantly different volumes of wastewater (p < 0.01). No statistical differences (p > 0.01) were detected between E. coli counts obtained from different parts of lettuce, nor between the direct and indirect enumeration methods. Statistically significant linear relationships were derived relating the E. coli concentration of the wastewater in which the lettuces were submerged to the subsequent E. coli count on each variety the lettuce.

Benefit Analysis Using Indirect or Imputed Market Methods. Volumes I-III, (1985-1994)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A series of reports were prepared under a grant awarded to the University of Maryland-College Park for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency focusing on estimating the benefits of water pollution control.

CHARACTERIZATION OF RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE TO CHLORPYRIFOS AND DIAZINON

EPA Science Inventory

Exposures to chlorpyrifos and diazinon in residential microenvironment in AZ were estimated using the indirect method of exposure calculation by combining measured concentrations in multiple media with time subjects spent indoors, dietary and non-dietary items they consumed, an...

Estimating the probability of spontaneous abortion in the presence of induced abortion and vice versa.

PubMed Central

Hammerslough, C R

1992-01-01

An integrated approach to estimate the total number of pregnancies that begin in a population during one calendar year and the probability of spontaneous abortion is described. This includes an indirect estimate of the number of pregnancies that result in spontaneous abortions. The method simultaneously takes into account the proportion of induced abortions that are censored by spontaneous abortions and vice versa in order to estimate the true annual number of spontaneous and induced abortions for a population. It also estimates the proportion of pregnancies that women intended to allow to continue to a live birth. The proposed indirect approach derives adjustment factors to make indirect estimates by combining vital statistics information on gestational age at induced abortion (from the 12 States that report to the National Center for Health Statistics) with a life table of spontaneous abortion probabilities. The adjustment factors are applied to data on induced abortions from the Alan Guttmacher Institute Abortion Provider Survey and data on births from U.S. vital statistics. For the United States in 1980 the probability of a spontaneous abortion is 19 percent, given the presence of induced abortion. Once the effects of spontaneous abortion are discounted, women in 1980 intended to allow 73 percent of their pregnancies to proceed to a live birth. One medical benefit to a population practicing induced abortion is that induced abortions avert some spontaneous abortions, leading to a lower mean gestational duration at the time of spontaneous abortion. PMID:1594736

Sex workers in Vietnam: how many, how risky?

PubMed

Minh, Truong Tan; Nhan, Do Thi; West, Gary R; Durant, Tonji M; Jenkins, Richard A; Huong, Pham Thi; Valdiserri, Ronald O

2004-10-01

Because of concerns for HIV risks and need to plan effective programs, we assessed the number and risks of sex workers in Nha Trang City, Vietnam. Sex workers were contacted in streets, beaches, bars, and restaurants, and a capture-recapture method was used to estimate their number. An estimated 444 women worked on the streets and beach ("direct" sex workers) and 486 worked in bars and restaurants or other facilities ("indirect" sex workers). Direct and indirect sex workers engaged in sex work primarily to support their families. Direct sex workers were older and were more at risk for HIV risk than were indirect sex workers. Direct sex workers had more clients, were less likely to report always using condoms (67% vs. 81%), more likely to report a prior sexually transmitted infection (19% vs. 16%), and more likely to have clients who inject drugs (16% vs. 13%). This assessment has implications for planning programs to reduce sex work and its risks in Vietnam and potentially other countries.

[Historia magistra vitae: on the methods of historical demography].

PubMed

Botev, N

1992-01-01

Indirect estimation techniques are applied to data for Bulgaria from 1891 to 1958 to assess trends in population dynamics. An interdisciplinary approach is suggested for the study of countries where data are often incomplete. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Use of the continuous slope-area method to estimate runoff in a network of ephemeral channels, southeast Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Anne M.; Callegary, James B.; Smith, Christopher F.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Leenhouts, James M.; Fritzinger, Robert A.

2012-01-01

The continuous slope-area (CSA) method is an innovative gaging method for indirect computation of complete-event discharge hydrographs that can be applied when direct measurement methods are unsafe, impractical, or impossible to apply. This paper reports on use of the method to produce event-specific discharge hydrographs in a network of sand-bedded ephemeral stream channels in southeast Arizona, USA, for water year 2008. The method provided satisfactory discharge estimates for flows that span channel banks, and for moderate to large flows, with about 10–16% uncertainty, respectively for total flow volume and peak flow, as compared to results obtained with an alternate method. Our results also suggest that the CSA method may be useful for estimating runoff of small flows, and during recessions, but with increased uncertainty.

Lipid-anthropometric index optimization for insulin sensitivity estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velásquez, J.; Wong, S.; Encalada, L.; Herrera, H.; Severeyn, E.

2015-12-01

Insulin sensitivity (IS) is the ability of cells to react due to insulińs presence; when this ability is diminished, low insulin sensitivity or insulin resistance (IR) is considered. IR had been related to other metabolic disorders as metabolic syndrome (MS), obesity, dyslipidemia and diabetes. IS can be determined using direct or indirect methods. The indirect methods are less accurate and invasive than direct and they use glucose and insulin values from oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). The accuracy is established by comparison using spearman rank correlation coefficient between direct and indirect method. This paper aims to propose a lipid-anthropometric index which offers acceptable correlation to insulin sensitivity index for different populations (DB1=MS subjects, DB2=sedentary without MS subjects and DB3=marathoners subjects) without to use OGTT glucose and insulin values. The proposed method is parametrically optimized through a random cross-validation, using the spearman rank correlation as comparator with CAUMO method. CAUMO is an indirect method designed from a simplification of the minimal model intravenous glucose tolerance test direct method (MINMOD-IGTT) and with acceptable correlation (0.89). The results show that the proposed optimized method got a better correlation with CAUMO in all populations compared to non-optimized. On the other hand, it was observed that the optimized method has better correlation with CAUMO in DB2 and DB3 groups than HOMA-IR method, which is the most widely used for diagnosing insulin resistance. The optimized propose method could detect incipient insulin resistance, when classify as insulin resistant subjects that present impaired postprandial insulin and glucose values.

Estimating soil labile organic carbon and potential turnover rates using a sequential fumigation–incubation procedure.

Treesearch

X.M. Zoua; H.H. Ruanc; Y. Fua; X.D. Yanga; L.Q. Sha

2005-01-01

Labile carbon is the fraction of soil organic carbon with most rapid turnover times and its oxidation drives the flux of CO2 between soils and atmosphere. Available chemical and physical fractionation methods for estimating soil labile organic carbon are indirect and lack a clear biological definition. We have modified the well-established Jenkinson and Powlson’s...

The total lifetime costs of smoking.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Susanne R; Prescott, Eva; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Søgaard, Jes

2004-03-01

Net costs of smoking in a lifetime perspective and, hence, the economic interests in antismoking policies have been questioned. It has been proposed that the health-related costs of smoking are balanced by smaller expenditure due to shorter life expectancy. A dynamic (life cycle) method taking differences in life expectancy into account. Main outcome measures were direct and indirect lifetime health costs for ever-smokers and never-smokers, and cost ratios (ever-smokers to never-smokers). The estimations were based on annual disease rates of use of the healthcare services, smoking relative risks, smoking prevalences, and costs. Annual direct and indirect costs of ever-smokers were higher than for never-smokers in all age groups of both genders. The direct and indirect cost ratios were highest at age 45 for women, and at age 35 and 40 for men, respectively. Taking life expectancy differences into account, direct and indirect lifetime health costs for men aged 35, discounted by 5% per year were 66% and 83% higher in ever-smokers than in never-smokers. Corresponding results for women were 74% and 79%, respectively. The results are insensitive to a broad range of relative risk-estimates and discount rates including no discounting. Excess costs of ever-smokers disappear if the inclusion of smoking-related diseases is narrowed to that of previous studies. Smoking imposes costs to society even when taking life expectancy into consideration--both in direct and indirect costs.

Indirect estimates of natal dispersal distance from genetic data in a stream-dwelling fish (Mogurnda adspersa).

PubMed

Shipham, Ashlee; Schmidt, Daniel J; Hughes, Jane M

2013-01-01

Recent work has highlighted the need to account for hierarchical patterns of genetic structure when estimating evolutionary and ecological parameters of interest. This caution is particularly relevant to studies of riverine organisms, where hierarchical structure appears to be commonplace. Here, we indirectly estimate dispersal distance in a hierarchically structured freshwater fish, Mogurnda adspersa. Microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) data were obtained for 443 individuals across 27 sites separated by an average of 1.3 km within creeks of southeastern Queensland, Australia. Significant genetic structure was found among sites (mtDNA Φ(ST) = 0.508; microsatellite F(ST) = 0.225, F'(ST) = 0.340). Various clustering methods produced congruent patterns of hierarchical structure reflecting stream architecture. Partial mantel tests identified contiguous sets of sample sites where isolation by distance (IBD) explained F(ST) variation without significant contribution of hierarchical structure. Analysis of mean natal dispersal distance (σ) within sets of IBD-linked sample sites suggested most dispersal occurs over less than 1 km, and the average effective density (D(e)) was estimated at 11.5 individuals km(-1); indicating sedentary behavior and small effective population size are responsible for the remarkable patterns of genetic structure observed. Our results demonstrate that Rousset's regression-based method is applicable to estimating the scale of dispersal in riverine organisms and that identifying contiguous populations that satisfy the assumptions of this model is achievable with genetic clustering methods and partial correlations.

Sequential Monte Carlo Instant Radiosity.

PubMed

Hedman, Peter; Karras, Tero; Lehtinen, Jaakko

2017-05-01

Instant Radiosity and its derivatives are interactive methods for efficiently estimating global (indirect) illumination. They represent the last indirect bounce of illumination before the camera as the composite radiance field emitted by a set of virtual point light sources (VPLs). In complex scenes, current algorithms suffer from a difficult combination of two issues: it remains a challenge to distribute VPLs in a manner that simultaneously gives a high-quality indirect illumination solution for each frame, and to do so in a temporally coherent manner. We address both issues by building, and maintaining over time, an adaptive and temporally coherent distribution of VPLs in locations where they bring indirect light to the image. We introduce a novel heuristic sampling method that strives to only move as few of the VPLs between frames as possible. The result is, to the best of our knowledge, the first interactive global illumination algorithm that works in complex, highly-occluded scenes, suffers little from temporal flickering, supports moving cameras and light sources, and is output-sensitive in the sense that it places VPLs in locations that matter most to the final result.

Sample size and power considerations in network meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Network meta-analysis is becoming increasingly popular for establishing comparative effectiveness among multiple interventions for the same disease. Network meta-analysis inherits all methodological challenges of standard pairwise meta-analysis, but with increased complexity due to the multitude of intervention comparisons. One issue that is now widely recognized in pairwise meta-analysis is the issue of sample size and statistical power. This issue, however, has so far only received little attention in network meta-analysis. To date, no approaches have been proposed for evaluating the adequacy of the sample size, and thus power, in a treatment network. Findings In this article, we develop easy-to-use flexible methods for estimating the ‘effective sample size’ in indirect comparison meta-analysis and network meta-analysis. The effective sample size for a particular treatment comparison can be interpreted as the number of patients in a pairwise meta-analysis that would provide the same degree and strength of evidence as that which is provided in the indirect comparison or network meta-analysis. We further develop methods for retrospectively estimating the statistical power for each comparison in a network meta-analysis. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methods for estimating effective sample size and statistical power using data from a network meta-analysis on interventions for smoking cessation including over 100 trials. Conclusion The proposed methods are easy to use and will be of high value to regulatory agencies and decision makers who must assess the strength of the evidence supporting comparative effectiveness estimates. PMID:22992327

Indirect costs of inflammatory bowel diseases: Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. A systematic review

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Introduction Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis are lifelong illnesses which have a significant impact on quality of life and personal burden through a reduction in the ability to work, sick leave and restrictions of leisure time. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the indirect costs of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Material and methods The search was carried out in Medline, EMBASE, the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, and reference lists of identified articles and reference lists of identified articles were also handsearched. All costs were adjusted to 2013 USD values by using the consumer price index and purchasing power parity. Identified studies were then analysed in order to assess their heterogeneity and possibility of inclusion in the meta-analysis. Results Eleven of the identified publications presented indirect costs of Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis. The range of estimated yearly indirect costs per patient was large, from $1 159.09 for loss of earnings to $14 135.64 for lost productivity and sick leave for Crohn's disease. The values for ulcerative colitis ranged from $926.49 to $6 583.17. Because of the imprecise definition of methods of indirect cost calculations as well as heterogeneity of indirect cost components, a meta-analysis was not performed. Conclusions The indirect costs of ulcerative colitis seem to be slightly lower than in the case of Crohn's disease. A small number of studies referring to indirect costs of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis were identified, which indicates the need to conduct further investigations on this problem. PMID:27186172

Occupational injury and illness in the United States. Estimates of costs, morbidity, and mortality.

PubMed

Leigh, J P; Markowitz, S B; Fahs, M; Shin, C; Landrigan, P J

1997-07-28

To estimate the annual incidence, the mortality and the direct and indirect costs associated with occupational injuries and illnesses in the United States in 1992. Aggregation and analysis of national and large regional data sets collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the National Council on Compensation Insurance, the National Center for Health Statistics, the Health Care Financing Administration, and other governmental bureaus and private firms. To assess incidence of and mortality from occupational injuries and illnesses, we reviewed data from national surveys and applied an attributable risk proportion method. To assess costs, we used the human capital method that decomposes costs into direct categories such as medical and insurance administration expenses as well as indirect categories such as lost earnings, lost home production, and lost fringe benefits. Some cost estimates were drawn from the literature while others were generated within this study. Total costs were calculated by multiplying average costs by the number of injuries and illnesses in each diagnostic category. Approximately 6500 job-related deaths from injury, 13.2 million nonfatal injuries, 60,300 deaths from disease, and 862,200 illnesses are estimated to occur annually in the civilian American workforce. The total direct ($65 billion) plus indirect ($106 billion) costs were estimated to be $171 billion. Injuries cost $145 billion and illnesses $26 billion. These estimates are likely to be low, because they ignore costs associated with pain and suffering as well as those of within-home care provided by family members, and because the numbers of occupational injuries and illnesses are likely to be undercounted. The costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are high, in sharp contrast to the limited public attention and societal resources devoted to their prevention and amelioration. Occupational injuries and illnesses are an insufficiently appreciated contributor to the total burden of health care costs in the United States.

Measurement of bedload transport in sand-bed rivers: a look at two indirect sampling methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Gray, John R.; Laronne, Jonathan B.; Marr, Jeffrey D.G.

2010-01-01

Sand-bed rivers present unique challenges to accurate measurement of the bedload transport rate using the traditional direct sampling methods of direct traps (for example the Helley-Smith bedload sampler). The two major issues are: 1) over sampling of sand transport caused by “mining” of sand due to the flow disturbance induced by the presence of the sampler and 2) clogging of the mesh bag with sand particles reducing the hydraulic efficiency of the sampler. Indirect measurement methods hold promise in that unlike direct methods, no transport-altering flow disturbance near the bed occurs. The bedform velocimetry method utilizes a measure of the bedform geometry and the speed of bedform translation to estimate the bedload transport through mass balance. The bedform velocimetry method is readily applied for the estimation of bedload transport in large sand-bed rivers so long as prominent bedforms are present and the streamflow discharge is steady for long enough to provide sufficient bedform translation between the successive bathymetric data sets. Bedform velocimetry in small sandbed rivers is often problematic due to rapid variation within the hydrograph. The bottom-track bias feature of the acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) has been utilized to accurately estimate the virtual velocities of sand-bed rivers. Coupling measurement of the virtual velocity with an accurate determination of the active depth of the streambed sediment movement is another method to measure bedload transport, which will be termed the “virtual velocity” method. Much research remains to develop methods and determine accuracy of the virtual velocity method in small sand-bed rivers.

Incorporating indirect costs into a cost-benefit analysis of laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Eric A; Allaire, Benjamin T; Dibonaventura, Marco Dacosta; Burgess, Somali M

2012-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate the time to breakeven and 5-year net costs of laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) taking both direct and indirect costs and cost savings into account. Estimates of direct cost savings from LAGB were available from the literature. Although longitudinal data on indirect cost savings were not available, these estimates were generated by quantifying the relationship between medical expenditures and absenteeism and between medical expenditures and presenteeism (reduced on-the-job productivity) and combining these elasticity estimates with estimates of the direct cost savings to generate total savings. These savings were then combined with the direct and indirect costs of the procedure to quantify net savings. By including indirect costs, the time to breakeven was reduced by half a year, from 16 to 14 quarters. After 5 years, net savings in medical expenditures from a gastric banding procedure were estimated to be $4970 (±$3090). Including absenteeism increased savings to $6180 (±$3550). Savings were further increased to $10,960 (±$5864) when both absenteeism and presenteeism estimates were included. This study presented a novel approach for including absenteeism and presenteeism estimates in cost-benefit analyses. Application of the approach to gastric banding among surgery-eligible obese employees revealed that the inclusion of indirect costs and cost savings improves the business case for the procedure. This approach can easily be extended to other populations and treatments. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Indirect rotor position sensing in real time for brushless permanent magnet motor drives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ertugrul, N.; Acarnley, P.P.

1998-07-01

This paper describes a modern solution to real-time rotor position estimation of brushless permanent magnet (PM) motor drives. The position estimation scheme, based on flux linkage and line-current estimation, is implemented in real time by using the abc reference frame, and it is tested dynamically. The position estimation model of the test motor, development of hardware, and basic operation of the digital signal processor (DSP) are discussed. The overall position estimation strategy is accomplished with a fast DSP (TMS320C30). The method is a shaft position sensorless method that is applicable to a wide range of excitation types in brushless PMmore » motors without any restriction on the motor model and the current excitation. Both rectangular and sinewave-excited brushless PM motor drives are examined, and the results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method with dynamic loads in closed estimated position loop.« less

Comparison of the accuracy of direct and indirect three-dimensional digitizing processes for CAD/CAM systems - An in vitro study.

PubMed

Vecsei, Bálint; Joós-Kovács, Gellért; Borbély, Judit; Hermann, Péter

2017-04-01

To compare the accuracy (trueness, precision) of direct and indirect scanning CAD/CAM methods. A master cast with prepared abutments and edentulous parts was created from polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA). A high-resolution industrial scanner was used to create a reference model. Polyvinyl-siloxane (PVS) impressions and digital impressions with three intraoral scanners (iTero, Cerec, Trios) were made (n=10 for each) from the PMMA model. A laboratory scanner (Scan CS2) was used to digitize the sectioned cast made from the PVS impressions. The stereolithographic (STL) files of the impressions (n=40) were exported. Each file was compared to the reference using Geomagic Verify software. Six points were assigned to enable virtual calliper measurement of three distances of varying size within the arch. Methods were compared using interquartile range regression and equality-of-variance tests for precision, and mixed-effects linear regression for trueness. The mean (SD) deviation of short distance measurements from the reference value was -40.3 (79.7) μm using the indirect, and 22.3 (40.0) μm using the direct method. For the medium distance, indirect measurements deviated by 5.2 (SD: 111.3) μm, and direct measurements by 115.8 (SD: 50.7) μm, on average; for the long distance, the corresponding estimates were -325.8 (SD: 134.1) μm with the indirect, and -163.5 (SD: 145.5) μm with the direct method. Significant differences were found between the two methods (p<0.05). With both methods, the shorter the distance, the more accurate results were achieved. Virtual models obtained by digital impressions can be more accurate than their conventional counterparts. Copyright © 2016 Japan Prosthodontic Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A scoping review of indirect comparison methods and applications using individual patient data.

PubMed

Veroniki, Areti Angeliki; Straus, Sharon E; Soobiah, Charlene; Elliott, Meghan J; Tricco, Andrea C

2016-04-27

Several indirect comparison methods, including network meta-analyses (NMAs), using individual patient data (IPD) have been developed to synthesize evidence from a network of trials. Although IPD indirect comparisons are published with increasing frequency in health care literature, there is no guidance on selecting the appropriate methodology and on reporting the methods and results. In this paper we examine the methods and reporting of indirect comparison methods using IPD. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and CINAHL from inception until October 2014. We included published and unpublished studies reporting a method, application, or review of indirect comparisons using IPD and at least three interventions. We identified 37 papers, including a total of 33 empirical networks. Of these, only 9 (27 %) IPD-NMAs reported the existence of a study protocol, whereas 3 (9 %) studies mentioned that protocols existed without providing a reference. The 33 empirical networks included 24 (73 %) IPD-NMAs and 9 (27 %) matching adjusted indirect comparisons (MAICs). Of the 21 (64 %) networks with at least one closed loop, 19 (90 %) were IPD-NMAs, 13 (68 %) of which evaluated the prerequisite consistency assumption, and only 5 (38 %) of the 13 IPD-NMAs used statistical approaches. The median number of trials included per network was 10 (IQR 4-19) (IPD-NMA: 15 [IQR 8-20]; MAIC: 2 [IQR 3-5]), and the median number of IPD trials included in a network was 3 (IQR 1-9) (IPD-NMA: 6 [IQR 2-11]; MAIC: 2 [IQR 1-2]). Half of the networks (17; 52 %) applied Bayesian hierarchical models (14 one-stage, 1 two-stage, 1 used IPD as an informative prior, 1 unclear-stage), including either IPD alone or with aggregated data (AD). Models for dichotomous and continuous outcomes were available (IPD alone or combined with AD), as were models for time-to-event data (IPD combined with AD). One in three indirect comparison methods modeling IPD adjusted results from different trials to estimate effects as if they had come from the same, randomized, population. Key methodological and reporting elements (e.g., evaluation of consistency, existence of study protocol) were often missing from an indirect comparison paper.

Comparison of spatial association approaches for landscape mapping of soil organic carbon stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, B. A.; Koszinski, S.; Wehrhan, M.; Sommer, M.

2015-03-01

The distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) can be variable at small analysis scales, but consideration of its role in regional and global issues demands the mapping of large extents. There are many different strategies for mapping SOC, among which is to model the variables needed to calculate the SOC stock indirectly or to model the SOC stock directly. The purpose of this research is to compare direct and indirect approaches to mapping SOC stocks from rule-based, multiple linear regression models applied at the landscape scale via spatial association. The final products for both strategies are high-resolution maps of SOC stocks (kg m-2), covering an area of 122 km2, with accompanying maps of estimated error. For the direct modelling approach, the estimated error map was based on the internal error estimations from the model rules. For the indirect approach, the estimated error map was produced by spatially combining the error estimates of component models via standard error propagation equations. We compared these two strategies for mapping SOC stocks on the basis of the qualities of the resulting maps as well as the magnitude and distribution of the estimated error. The direct approach produced a map with less spatial variation than the map produced by the indirect approach. The increased spatial variation represented by the indirect approach improved R2 values for the topsoil and subsoil stocks. Although the indirect approach had a lower mean estimated error for the topsoil stock, the mean estimated error for the total SOC stock (topsoil + subsoil) was lower for the direct approach. For these reasons, we recommend the direct approach to modelling SOC stocks be considered a more conservative estimate of the SOC stocks' spatial distribution.

Comparison of spatial association approaches for landscape mapping of soil organic carbon stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, B. A.; Koszinski, S.; Wehrhan, M.; Sommer, M.

2014-11-01

The distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) can be variable at small analysis scales, but consideration of its role in regional and global issues demands the mapping of large extents. There are many different strategies for mapping SOC, among which are to model the variables needed to calculate the SOC stock indirectly or to model the SOC stock directly. The purpose of this research is to compare direct and indirect approaches to mapping SOC stocks from rule-based, multiple linear regression models applied at the landscape scale via spatial association. The final products for both strategies are high-resolution maps of SOC stocks (kg m-2), covering an area of 122 km2, with accompanying maps of estimated error. For the direct modelling approach, the estimated error map was based on the internal error estimations from the model rules. For the indirect approach, the estimated error map was produced by spatially combining the error estimates of component models via standard error propagation equations. We compared these two strategies for mapping SOC stocks on the basis of the qualities of the resulting maps as well as the magnitude and distribution of the estimated error. The direct approach produced a map with less spatial variation than the map produced by the indirect approach. The increased spatial variation represented by the indirect approach improved R2 values for the topsoil and subsoil stocks. Although the indirect approach had a lower mean estimated error for the topsoil stock, the mean estimated error for the total SOC stock (topsoil + subsoil) was lower for the direct approach. For these reasons, we recommend the direct approach to modelling SOC stocks be considered a more conservative estimate of the SOC stocks' spatial distribution.

Female genital mutilation/cutting in Italy: an enhanced estimation for first generation migrant women based on 2016 survey data.

PubMed

Ortensi, Livia Elisa; Farina, Patrizia; Leye, Els

2018-01-12

Migration flows of women from Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting practicing countries have generated a need for data on women potentially affected by Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting. This paper presents enhanced estimates for foreign-born women and asylum seekers in Italy in 2016, with the aim of supporting resource planning and policy making, and advancing the methodological debate on estimation methods. The estimates build on the most recent methodological development in Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting direct and indirect estimation for Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting non-practicing countries. Direct estimation of prevalence was performed for 9 communities using the results of the survey FGM-Prev, held in Italy in 2016. Prevalence for communities not involved in the FGM-Prev survey was estimated using to the 'extrapolation-of-FGM/C countries prevalence data method' with corrections according to the selection hypothesis. It is estimated that 60 to 80 thousand foreign-born women aged 15 and over with Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting are present in Italy in 2016. We also estimated the presence of around 11 to 13 thousand cut women aged 15 and over among asylum seekers to Italy in 2014-2016. Due to the long established presence of female migrants from some practicing communities Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting is emerging as an issue also among women aged 60 and over from selected communities. Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting is an additional source of concern for slightly more than 60% of women seeking asylum. Reliable estimates on Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting at country level are important for evidence-based policy making and service planning. This study suggests that indirect estimations cannot fully replace direct estimations, even if corrections for migrant socioeconomic selection can be implemented to reduce the bias.

Direct versus indirect many-body methods for calculating vertical electron affinities: applications to F -, OH - , NH 2-, CN -, Cl -, SH - and PH 2-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz, J. V.

1987-05-01

Electron propagator theory (EPT) is applied to calculating vertical ionization energies of the anions F -, Cl -, OH -,SH -, NH 2-, PH 2- and CN -. Third-order and outer valence approximation (OVA) quasiparticle calculations are compared with ΔMBPT(4) (MBPT, many-body perturbation theory) results using the same basis sets. Agreement with experiment is satisfactory for EPT calculations except for F - and OH -, while the ΔMBPT treatments fail for CN -. EPT(OVA) estimates are reliable when the discrepancy between second- and third-order results is small. Computational aspects are discussed, showing relative merits of direct and indirect methods for evaluating electron binding energies.

A method for direct measurement of the first-order mass moments of human body segments.

PubMed

Fujii, Yusaku; Shimada, Kazuhito; Maru, Koichi; Ozawa, Junichi; Lu, Rong-Sheng

2010-01-01

We propose a simple and direct method for measuring the first-order mass moment of a human body segment. With the proposed method, the first-order mass moment of the body segment can be directly measured by using only one precision scale and one digital camera. In the dummy mass experiment, the relative standard uncertainty of a single set of measurements of the first-order mass moment is estimated to be 1.7%. The measured value will be useful as a reference for evaluating the uncertainty of the body segment inertial parameters (BSPs) estimated using an indirect method.

An attempt to bridge muscle architecture dynamics and its instantaneous rate of force development using ultrasonography.

PubMed

Li, Jizhou; Zhou, Yongjin; Zheng, Yong-Ping; Li, Guanglin

2015-08-01

Muscle force output is an essential index in rehabilitation assessment or physical exams, and could provide considerable insights for various applications such as load monitoring and muscle assessment in sports science or rehabilitation therapy. Besides direct measurement of force output using a dynamometer, electromyography has earlier been used in several studies to quantify muscle force as an indirect means. However, its spatial resolution is easily compromised as a summation of the action potentials from neighboring motor units of electrode site. To explore an alternative method to indirectly estimate the muscle force output, and with better muscle specificity, we started with an investigation on the relationship between architecture dynamics and force output of triceps surae. The muscular architecture dynamics is captured in ultrasonography sequences and estimated using a previously reported motion estimation method. Then an indicator named as the dorsoventrally averaged motion profile (DAMP) is employed. The performance of force output is represented by an instantaneous version of the rate of force development (RFD), namely I-RFD. From experimental results on ten normal subjects, there were significant correlations between the I-RFD and DAMP for triceps surae, both normalized between 0 and 1, with the sum of squares error at 0.0516±0.0224, R-square at 0.7929±0.0931 and root mean squared error at 0.0159±0.0033. The statistical significance results were less than 0.01. The present study suggested that muscle architecture dynamics extracted from ultrasonography during contraction is well correlated to the I-RFD and it can be a promising option for indirect estimation of muscle force output. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Acceleration of the direct reconstruction of linear parametric images using nested algorithms.

PubMed

Wang, Guobao; Qi, Jinyi

2010-03-07

Parametric imaging using dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) provides important information for biological research and clinical diagnosis. Indirect and direct methods have been developed for reconstructing linear parametric images from dynamic PET data. Indirect methods are relatively simple and easy to implement because the image reconstruction and kinetic modeling are performed in two separate steps. Direct methods estimate parametric images directly from raw PET data and are statistically more efficient. However, the convergence rate of direct algorithms can be slow due to the coupling between the reconstruction and kinetic modeling. Here we present two fast gradient-type algorithms for direct reconstruction of linear parametric images. The new algorithms decouple the reconstruction and linear parametric modeling at each iteration by employing the principle of optimization transfer. Convergence speed is accelerated by running more sub-iterations of linear parametric estimation because the computation cost of the linear parametric modeling is much less than that of the image reconstruction. Computer simulation studies demonstrated that the new algorithms converge much faster than the traditional expectation maximization (EM) and the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithms for dynamic PET.

Hotspot Identification for Shanghai Expressways Using the Quantitative Risk Assessment Method

PubMed Central

Chen, Can; Li, Tienan; Sun, Jian; Chen, Feng

2016-01-01

Hotspot identification (HSID) is the first and key step of the expressway safety management process. This study presents a new HSID method using the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) technique. Crashes that are likely to happen for a specific site are treated as the risk. The aggregation of the crash occurrence probability for all exposure vehicles is estimated based on the empirical Bayesian method. As for the consequences of crashes, crashes may not only cause direct losses (e.g., occupant injuries and property damages) but also result in indirect losses. The indirect losses are expressed by the extra delays calculated using the deterministic queuing diagram method. The direct losses and indirect losses are uniformly monetized to be considered as the consequences of this risk. The potential costs of crashes, as a criterion to rank high-risk sites, can be explicitly expressed as the sum of the crash probability for all passing vehicles and the corresponding consequences of crashes. A case study on the urban expressways of Shanghai is presented. The results show that the new QRA method for HSID enables the identification of a set of high-risk sites that truly reveal the potential crash costs to society. PMID:28036009

On the representation and estimation of spatial uncertainty. [for mobile robot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Randall C.; Cheeseman, Peter

1987-01-01

This paper describes a general method for estimating the nominal relationship and expected error (covariance) between coordinate frames representing the relative locations of objects. The frames may be known only indirectly through a series of spatial relationships, each with its associated error, arising from diverse causes, including positioning errors, measurement errors, or tolerances in part dimensions. This estimation method can be used to answer such questions as whether a camera attached to a robot is likely to have a particular reference object in its field of view. The calculated estimates agree well with those from an independent Monte Carlo simulation. The method makes it possible to decide in advance whether an uncertain relationship is known accurately enough for some task and, if not, how much of an improvement in locational knowledge a proposed sensor will provide. The method presented can be generalized to six degrees of freedom and provides a practical means of estimating the relationships (position and orientation) among objects, as well as estimating the uncertainty associated with the relationships.

PIV-based estimation of unsteady loads on a flat plate at high angle of attack using momentum equation approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guissart, A.; Bernal, L. P.; Dimitriadis, G.; Terrapon, V. E.

2017-05-01

This work presents, compares and discusses results obtained with two indirect methods for the calculation of aerodynamic forces and pitching moment from 2D Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements. Both methodologies are based on the formulations of the momentum balance: the integral Navier-Stokes equations and the "flux equation" proposed by Noca et al. (J Fluids Struct 13(5):551-578, 1999), which has been extended to the computation of moments. The indirect methods are applied to spatio-temporal data for different separated flows around a plate with a 16:1 chord-to-thickness ratio. Experimental data are obtained in a water channel for both a plate undergoing a large amplitude imposed pitching motion and a static plate at high angle of attack. In addition to PIV data, direct measurements of aerodynamic loads are carried out to assess the quality of the indirect calculations. It is found that indirect methods are able to compute the mean and the temporal evolution of the loads for two-dimensional flows with a reasonable accuracy. Nonetheless, both methodologies are noise sensitive, and the parameters impacting the computation should thus be chosen carefully. It is also shown that results can be improved through the use of dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) as a pre-processing step.

A Comparison of Single Sample and Bootstrap Methods to Assess Mediation in Cluster Randomized Trials

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pituch, Keenan A.; Stapleton, Laura M.; Kang, Joo Youn

2006-01-01

A Monte Carlo study examined the statistical performance of single sample and bootstrap methods that can be used to test and form confidence interval estimates of indirect effects in two cluster randomized experimental designs. The designs were similar in that they featured random assignment of clusters to one of two treatment conditions and…

New methods for estimating parameters of weibull functions to characterize future diameter distributions in forest stands

Treesearch

Quang V. Cao; Shanna M. McCarty

2006-01-01

Diameter distributions in a forest stand have been successfully characterized by use of the Weibull function. Of special interest are cases where parameters of a Weibull distribution that models a future stand are predicted, either directly or indirectly, from current stand density and dominant height. This study evaluated four methods of predicting the Weibull...

Comparison of measured versus predicted energy requirements in critically ill cancer patients.

PubMed

Pirat, Arash; Tucker, Anne M; Taylor, Kim A; Jinnah, Rashida; Finch, Clarence G; Canada, Todd D; Nates, Joseph L

2009-04-01

Accurate determination of caloric requirements is essential to avoid feeding-associated complications in critically ill patients. In critically ill cancer patients we compared the measured and estimated resting energy expenditures. All patients admitted to the oncology intensive care unit between March 2004 and July 2005 were considered for inclusion. For those patients enrolled (n = 34) we measured resting energy expenditure via indirect calorimetry, and estimated resting energy expenditure in 2 ways: clinically estimated resting energy expenditure; and the Harris-Benedict basal energy expenditure equation. Clinically estimated resting energy expenditure was associated with underfeeding, appropriate feeding, and overfeeding in approximately 15%, 15%, and 71% of the patients, respectively. The Harris-Benedict basal energy expenditure was associated with underfeeding, appropriate feeding, and overfeeding in approximately 29%, 41%, and 29% of the patients, respectively. The mean measured resting energy expenditure (1,623 +/- 384 kcal/d) was similar to the mean Harris-Benedict basal energy expenditure without the addition of stress or activity factors (1,613 +/- 382 kcal/d, P = .87), and both were significantly lower than the mean clinically estimated resting energy expenditure (1,862 +/- 330 kcal/d, P < or = .003 for both). There was a significant correlation only between mean measured resting energy expenditure and mean Harris-Benedict basal energy expenditure (P < .001), but the correlation coefficient between those values was low (r = 0.587). Underfeeding and overfeeding were common in our critically ill cancer patients when resting energy expenditure was estimated rather than measured. Indirect calorimetry is the method of choice for determining caloric need in critically ill cancer patients, but if indirect calorimetry is not available or feasible, the Harris-Benedict equation without added stress and activity factors is more accurate than the clinically estimated resting energy expenditure.

Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as “practically impossible”, and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Methods Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Results Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Conclusions Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons. PMID:24168424

Direct reconstruction of parametric images for brain PET with event-by-event motion correction: evaluation in two tracers across count levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germino, Mary; Gallezot, Jean-Dominque; Yan, Jianhua; Carson, Richard E.

2017-07-01

Parametric images for dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) are typically generated by an indirect method, i.e. reconstructing a time series of emission images, then fitting a kinetic model to each voxel time activity curve. Alternatively, ‘direct reconstruction’, incorporates the kinetic model into the reconstruction algorithm itself, directly producing parametric images from projection data. Direct reconstruction has been shown to achieve parametric images with lower standard error than the indirect method. Here, we present direct reconstruction for brain PET using event-by-event motion correction of list-mode data, applied to two tracers. Event-by-event motion correction was implemented for direct reconstruction in the Parametric Motion-compensation OSEM List-mode Algorithm for Resolution-recovery reconstruction. The direct implementation was tested on simulated and human datasets with tracers [11C]AFM (serotonin transporter) and [11C]UCB-J (synaptic density), which follow the 1-tissue compartment model. Rigid head motion was tracked with the Vicra system. Parametric images of K 1 and distribution volume (V T  =  K 1/k 2) were compared to those generated by the indirect method by regional coefficient of variation (CoV). Performance across count levels was assessed using sub-sampled datasets. For simulated and real datasets at high counts, the two methods estimated K 1 and V T with comparable accuracy. At lower count levels, the direct method was substantially more robust to outliers than the indirect method. Compared to the indirect method, direct reconstruction reduced regional K 1 CoV by 35-48% (simulated dataset), 39-43% ([11C]AFM dataset) and 30-36% ([11C]UCB-J dataset) across count levels (averaged over regions at matched iteration); V T CoV was reduced by 51-58%, 54-60% and 30-46%, respectively. Motion correction played an important role in the dataset with larger motion: correction increased regional V T by 51% on average in the [11C]UCB-J dataset. Direct reconstruction of dynamic brain PET with event-by-event motion correction is achievable and dramatically more robust to noise in V T images than the indirect method.

Estimating the social cost of respiratory cancer cases attributable to occupational exposures in France.

PubMed

Serrier, Hassan; Sultan-Taieb, Hélène; Luce, Danièle; Bejean, Sophie

2014-07-01

The objective of this article was to estimate the social cost of respiratory cancer cases attributable to occupational risk factors in France in 2010. According to the attributable fraction method and based on available epidemiological data from the literature, we estimated the number of respiratory cancer cases due to each identified risk factor. We used the cost-of-illness method with a prevalence-based approach. We took into account the direct and indirect costs. We estimated the cost of production losses due to morbidity (absenteeism and presenteeism) and mortality costs (years of production losses) in the market and nonmarket spheres. The social cost of lung, larynx, sinonasal and mesothelioma cancer caused by exposure to asbestos, chromium, diesel engine exhaust, paint, crystalline silica, wood and leather dust in France in 2010 were estimated at between 917 and 2,181 million euros. Between 795 and 2,011 million euros (87-92%) of total costs were due to lung cancer alone. Asbestos was by far the risk factor representing the greatest cost to French society in 2010 at between 531 and 1,538 million euros (58-71%), ahead of diesel engine exhaust, representing an estimated social cost of between 233 and 336 million euros, and crystalline silica (119-229 million euros). Indirect costs represented about 66% of total costs. Our assessment shows the magnitude of the economic impact of occupational respiratory cancers. It allows comparisons between countries and provides valuable information for policy-makers responsible for defining public health priorities.

A review of life expectancy and infant mortality estimations for Australian Aboriginal people

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Significant variation exists in published Aboriginal mortality and life expectancy (LE) estimates due to differing and evolving methodologies required to correct for inadequate recording of Aboriginality in death data, under-counting of Aboriginal people in population censuses, and unexplained growth in the Aboriginal population attributed to changes in the propensity of individuals to identify as Aboriginal at population censuses. The objective of this paper is to analyse variation in reported Australian Aboriginal mortality in terms of LE and infant mortality rates (IMR), compared with all Australians. Methods Published data for Aboriginal LE and IMR were obtained and analysed for data quality and method of estimation. Trends in reported LE and IMR estimates were assessed and compared with those in the entire Australian population. Results LE estimates derived from different methodologies vary by as much as 7.2 years for the same comparison period. Indirect methods for estimating Aboriginal LE have produced LE estimates sensitive to small changes in underlying assumptions, some of which are subject to circular reasoning. Most indirect methods appear to under-estimate Aboriginal LE. Estimated LE gaps between Aboriginal people and the overall Australian population have varied between 11 and 20 years. Latest mortality estimates, based on linking census and death data, are likely to over-estimate Aboriginal LE. Temporal LE changes by each methodology indicate that Aboriginal LE has improved at rates similar to the Australian population overall. Consequently the gap in LE between Aboriginal people and the total Australian population appears to be unchanged since the early 1980s, and at the end of the first decade of the 21st century remains at least 11–12 years. In contrast, focussing on the 1990–2010 period Aboriginal IMR declined steeply over 2001–08, from more than 12 to around 8 deaths per 1,000 live births, the same level as Australia overall in 1993–95. The IMR gap between Aboriginal people and the total Australian population, while still unacceptable, has declined considerably, from over 8 before 2000 to around 4 per 1,000 live births by 2008. Conclusions Regardless of estimation method used, mortality and LE gaps between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people are substantial, but remain difficult to estimate accurately. PMID:24383435

Consistency between direct and indirect trial evidence: is direct evidence always more reliable?

PubMed

Madan, Jason; Stevenson, Matt D; Cooper, Katy L; Ades, A E; Whyte, Sophie; Akehurst, Ron

2011-01-01

To present a case study involving the reduction in incidence of febrile neutropenia (FN) after chemotherapy with granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs), illustrating difficulties that may arise when following the common preference for direct evidence over indirect evidence. Evidence of the efficacy of treatments was identified from two previous systematic reviews. We used Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate relative treatment effects based on direct evidence, indirect evidence, and both pooled together. We checked for inconsistency between direct and indirect evidence and explored the role of one specific trial using cross-validation. A subsequent review identified further studies not available at the time of the original analysis. We repeated the analyses on the enlarged evidence base. We found substantial inconsistency in the original evidence base. The median odds ratio of FN for primary pegfilgrastim versus no primary G-CSF was 0.06 (95% credible interval: 0.02-0.19) based on direct evidence, but 0.27 (95% credible interval: 0.13-0.53) based on indirect evidence (P value for consistency hypothesis 0.027). The additional trials were consistent with the earlier indirect, rather than the direct, evidence, and there was no inconsistency between direct and indirect estimates in the updated evidence. The earlier inconsistency was due to one trial comparing primary pegfilgrastim with no primary G-CSF. Predictive cross-validation showed that this study was inconsistent with the evidence as a whole and with other trials making this comparison. Both the Cochrane Handbook and the NICE Methods Guide express a preference for direct evidence. A more robust strategy, which is in line with the accepted principles of evidence synthesis, would be to combine all relevant and appropriate information, whether direct or indirect. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of joint spacing and joint dip on the stress distribution around tunnels using different numerical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikadat, Nooraddin; Fatehi Marji, Mohammad; Rahmannejad, Reza; Yarahmadi Bafghi, Alireza

2016-11-01

Different conditions may affect the stability of tunnels by the geometry (spacing and orientation) of joints in the surrounded rock mass. In this study, by comparing the results obtained by the three novel numerical methods i.e. finite element method (Phase2), discrete element method (UDEC) and indirect boundary element method (TFSDDM), the effects of joint spacing and joint dips on the stress distribution around rock tunnels are numerically studied. These comparisons indicate the validity of the stress analyses around circular rock tunnels. These analyses also reveal that for a semi-continuous environment, boundary element method gives more accurate results compared to the results of finite element and distinct element methods. In the indirect boundary element method, the displacements due to joints of different spacing and dips are estimated by using displacement discontinuity (DD) formulations and the total stress distribution around the tunnel are obtained by using fictitious stress (FS) formulations.

Validity of the Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test Level 1 for direct measurement or indirect estimation of maximal oxygen uptake in female soccer players.

PubMed

Martínez-Lagunas, Vanessa; Hartmann, Ulrich

2014-09-01

To evaluate the validity of the Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test Level 1 (YYIR1) for the direct assessment and the indirect estimation of maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) in female soccer players compared with a maximal laboratory treadmill test (LTT). Eighteen female soccer players (21.5 ± 3.4 y, 165.6 ± 7.5 cm, 63.3 ± 7.4 kg; mean ± SD) completed an LTT and a YYIR1 in random order (1 wk apart). Their VO2max was directly measured via portable spirometry during both tests and indirectly estimated from a published non-gender-specific formula (YYIR1-F1). The measured VO2max values in LTT and YYIR1 were 55.0 ± 5.3 and 49.9 ± 4.9 mL · kg-1 · min-1, respectively, while the estimated VO2max values from YYIR1-F1 corresponded to 45.2 ± 3.4 mL · kg-1 · min-1. Large positive correlations between the VO2max values from YYIR1 and LTT (r = .83, P < .001, 90% confidence interval = .64-.92) and YYIR1-F1 and LTT (r = .67, P = .002, .37-.84) were found. However, the YYIR1 significantly underestimated players' VO2max by 9.4% compared with LTT (P < .001) with Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement ranging from -20.0% to 1.4%. A significant underestimation from the YYIR1-F1 (P < .001) was also identified (17.8% with Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement ranging from -31.8% to -3.8%). The YYIR1 and YYIR1-F1 are not accurate methods for the direct assessment or indirect estimation of VO2max in female soccer players. The YYIR1-F1 lacks gender specificity, which might have been the reason for its larger error.

VitiCanopy: A Free Computer App to Estimate Canopy Vigor and Porosity for Grapevine

PubMed Central

De Bei, Roberta; Fuentes, Sigfredo; Gilliham, Matthew; Tyerman, Steve; Edwards, Everard; Bianchini, Nicolò; Smith, Jason; Collins, Cassandra

2016-01-01

Leaf area index (LAI) and plant area index (PAI) are common and important biophysical parameters used to estimate agronomical variables such as canopy growth, light interception and water requirements of plants and trees. LAI can be either measured directly using destructive methods or indirectly using dedicated and expensive instrumentation, both of which require a high level of know-how to operate equipment, handle data and interpret results. Recently, a novel smartphone and tablet PC application, VitiCanopy, has been developed by a group of researchers from the University of Adelaide and the University of Melbourne, to estimate grapevine canopy size (LAI and PAI), canopy porosity, canopy cover and clumping index. VitiCanopy uses the front in-built camera and GPS capabilities of smartphones and tablet PCs to automatically implement image analysis algorithms on upward-looking digital images of canopies and calculates relevant canopy architecture parameters. Results from the use of VitiCanopy on grapevines correlated well with traditional methods to measure/estimate LAI and PAI. Like other indirect methods, VitiCanopy does not distinguish between leaf and non-leaf material but it was demonstrated that the non-leaf material could be extracted from the results, if needed, to increase accuracy. VitiCanopy is an accurate, user-friendly and free alternative to current techniques used by scientists and viticultural practitioners to assess the dynamics of LAI, PAI and canopy architecture in vineyards, and has the potential to be adapted for use on other plants. PMID:27120600

In-residence, multiple route exposures to chlorpyrifos and diazinon estimated by indirect method models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moschandreas, D. J.; Kim, Y.; Karuchit, S.; Ari, H.; Lebowitz, M. D.; O'Rourke, M. K.; Gordon, S.; Robertson, G.

One of the objectives of the National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS) is to estimate exposures to several pollutants in multiple media and determine their distributions for the population of Arizona. This paper presents modeling methods used to estimate exposure distributions of chlorpyrifos and diazinon in the residential microenvironment using the database generated in Arizona (NHEXAS-AZ). A four-stage probability sampling design was used for sample selection. Exposures to pesticides were estimated using the indirect method of exposure calculation by combining measured concentrations of the two pesticides in multiple media with questionnaire information such as time subjects spent indoors, dietary and non-dietary items they consumed, and areas they touched. Most distributions of in-residence exposure to chlorpyrifos and diazinon were log-normal or nearly log-normal. Exposures to chlorpyrifos and diazinon vary by pesticide and route as well as by various demographic characteristics of the subjects. Comparisons of exposure to pesticides were investigated among subgroups of demographic categories, including gender, age, minority status, education, family income, household dwelling type, year the dwelling was built, pesticide use, and carpeted areas within dwellings. Residents with large carpeted areas within their dwellings have higher exposures to both pesticides for all routes than those in less carpet-covered areas. Depending on the route, several other determinants of exposure to pesticides were identified, but a clear pattern could not be established regarding the exposure differences between several subpopulation groups.

VitiCanopy: A Free Computer App to Estimate Canopy Vigor and Porosity for Grapevine.

PubMed

De Bei, Roberta; Fuentes, Sigfredo; Gilliham, Matthew; Tyerman, Steve; Edwards, Everard; Bianchini, Nicolò; Smith, Jason; Collins, Cassandra

2016-04-23

Leaf area index (LAI) and plant area index (PAI) are common and important biophysical parameters used to estimate agronomical variables such as canopy growth, light interception and water requirements of plants and trees. LAI can be either measured directly using destructive methods or indirectly using dedicated and expensive instrumentation, both of which require a high level of know-how to operate equipment, handle data and interpret results. Recently, a novel smartphone and tablet PC application, VitiCanopy, has been developed by a group of researchers from the University of Adelaide and the University of Melbourne, to estimate grapevine canopy size (LAI and PAI), canopy porosity, canopy cover and clumping index. VitiCanopy uses the front in-built camera and GPS capabilities of smartphones and tablet PCs to automatically implement image analysis algorithms on upward-looking digital images of canopies and calculates relevant canopy architecture parameters. Results from the use of VitiCanopy on grapevines correlated well with traditional methods to measure/estimate LAI and PAI. Like other indirect methods, VitiCanopy does not distinguish between leaf and non-leaf material but it was demonstrated that the non-leaf material could be extracted from the results, if needed, to increase accuracy. VitiCanopy is an accurate, user-friendly and free alternative to current techniques used by scientists and viticultural practitioners to assess the dynamics of LAI, PAI and canopy architecture in vineyards, and has the potential to be adapted for use on other plants.

Extraction and estimation of the quantity of calcium oxalate crystals in the foliage of conifer and hardwood trees

Treesearch

Rakesh Minocha; Bradley Chamberlain; Stephanie Long; Swathi A. Turlapati; Gloria Quigley

2015-01-01

The main goal of this study was to develop a method for the extraction and indirect estimation of the quantity of calcium oxalate (CaOx) in the foliage of trees. Foliar tissue was collected from a single tree of each species (five conifers and five hardwoods) for comparison of extractions in different solvents using 10 replicates per species from the same pool of...

Error Analysis of Indirect Broadband Monitoring of Multilayer Optical Coatings using Computer Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, Z. V.; Labusov, V. A.

2017-11-01

Results of studying the errors of indirect monitoring by means of computer simulations are reported. The monitoring method is based on measuring spectra of reflection from additional monitoring substrates in a wide spectral range. Special software (Deposition Control Simulator) is developed, which allows one to estimate the influence of the monitoring system parameters (noise of the photodetector array, operating spectral range of the spectrometer and errors of its calibration in terms of wavelengths, drift of the radiation source intensity, and errors in the refractive index of deposited materials) on the random and systematic errors of deposited layer thickness measurements. The direct and inverse problems of multilayer coatings are solved using the OptiReOpt library. Curves of the random and systematic errors of measurements of the deposited layer thickness as functions of the layer thickness are presented for various values of the system parameters. Recommendations are given on using the indirect monitoring method for the purpose of reducing the layer thickness measurement error.

Development of an indirect enzyme linked immunoassay for abscisic acid. [Pisum sativum

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ross, G.S.; Elder, P.A.; McWha, J.A.

1987-09-01

AN INDIRECT METHOD OF ENZYME-LINKED-IMMUNOSORBENT-ASSAY (ELISA) IS REPORTED FOR ABSCISIC ACID (ABA), UTILIZING A THYROGLOBULIN-ABA CONJUGATE FOR COATING WELLS. THE ASSAY CAN USE COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE MONOCLONAL ANTIBODIES, IS SENSITIVE TO AS LITTLE AS 20 PICOGRAMS ABA PER WELL, AND IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE OF ANTIBODY THAN DIRECT METHODS. THE MOST DILUTE ABA STANDARDS DID NOT RETAIN THEIR ANTIGENICITY DURING STORAGE, SO ABA STANDARD SETS WERE DILUTED IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO USE. THE INDIRECT ELISA WAS USED SUCCESSFULLY TO ESTIMATE ABA CONCENTRATIONS IN DEVELOPING COTYLEDONS OF PISUM SATIVUM L., AFTER ONLY LITTLE PRELIMINARY PURIFICATION. IT WAS VALIDATED FOR THIS TISSUE THROUGH THEmore » USE OF GAS CHROMATOGRAPHY-ELECTRON CAPTURE DETECTION (GC-EC), AND CAPILLARY GC-SELECTED ION MONITORING (GC-MS-SIM) USING LABELLED ABA AS AN INTERNAL STANDARD. FULL SPECTRUM GC-MASS SPECTROMETRY WAS ALSO USED TO VERIFY THAT ABA WAS PRESENT IN A SAMPLE ASSAYED QUANTITATIVELY BY BOTH ELISA AND GC-MS-SIM.« less

Monitoring inter-group encounters in wilderness

Treesearch

Alan E. Watson; Rich Cronn; Neal A. Christensen

1998-01-01

Many managers face the challenge of monitoring rates of visitor encounters in wilderness. This study (1) provides estimates of encounter rates through use of several monitoring methods, (2) determines the relationship between the various measures of encounter rates, and (3) determines the relationship between various indirect predictors of encounter rates and actual...

An Index and Test of Linear Moderated Mediation.

PubMed

Hayes, Andrew F

2015-01-01

I describe a test of linear moderated mediation in path analysis based on an interval estimate of the parameter of a function linking the indirect effect to values of a moderator-a parameter that I call the index of moderated mediation. This test can be used for models that integrate moderation and mediation in which the relationship between the indirect effect and the moderator is estimated as linear, including many of the models described by Edwards and Lambert ( 2007 ) and Preacher, Rucker, and Hayes ( 2007 ) as well as extensions of these models to processes involving multiple mediators operating in parallel or in serial. Generalization of the method to latent variable models is straightforward. Three empirical examples describe the computation of the index and the test, and its implementation is illustrated using Mplus and the PROCESS macro for SPSS and SAS.

Parametric mediational g-formula approach to mediation analysis with time-varying exposures, mediators, and confounders

PubMed Central

Lin, Sheng-Hsuan; Young, Jessica; Logan, Roger; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J.; VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2016-01-01

The assessment of direct and indirect effects with time-varying mediators and confounders is a common but challenging problem, and standard mediation analysis approaches are generally not applicable in this context. The mediational g-formula was recently proposed to address this problem, paired with a semi-parametric estimation approach to evaluate longitudinal mediation effects empirically. In this paper, we develop a parametric estimation approach to the mediational g-formula, including a feasible algorithm implemented in a freely available SAS macro. In the Framingham Heart Study data, we apply this method to estimate the interventional analogues of natural direct and indirect effects of smoking behaviors sustained over a 10-year period on blood pressure when considering weight change as a time-varying mediator. Compared with not smoking, smoking 20 cigarettes per day for 10 years was estimated to increase blood pressure by 1.2 (95 % CI: −0.7, 2.7) mm-Hg. The direct effect was estimated to increase blood pressure by 1.5 (95 % CI: −0.3, 2.9) mm-Hg, and the indirect effect was −0.3 (95% CI: −0.5, −0.1) mm-Hg, which is negative because smoking which is associated with lower weight is associated in turn with lower blood pressure. These results provide evidence that weight change in fact partially conceals the detrimental effects of cigarette smoking on blood pressure. Our work represents, to our knowledge, the first application of the parametric mediational g-formula in an epidemiologic cohort study. PMID:27984420

Direct and indirect costs and potential cost savings of laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding among obese patients with diabetes.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Eric A; Allaire, Benjamin T; DiBonaventura, Marco DaCosta; Burgess, Somali M

2011-09-01

To estimate the time to breakeven and 5-year net costs for laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding among obese patients with diabetes taking direct and indirect costs into account. Indirect cost savings were generated by quantifying the cross-sectional relationship between medical expenditures and absenteeism and between medical expenditures and presenteeism (reduced on-the-job productivity) and simulating indirect cost savings based on these multipliers and reductions in direct medical costs available in the literature. Time to breakeven was estimated to be nine quarters with and without the inclusion of indirect costs. After 5 years, net savings increase from $26570 (±$9000) to $34160 (±$10 380) when indirect costs are included. This study presented a novel approach for incorporating indirect costs into cost-benefit analyses. Application to gastric banding revealed that inclusion of indirect costs improves the financial outlook for the procedure. (C)2011The American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine

Uncertainty estimation of water levels for the Mitch flood event in Tegucigalpa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes Andino, D. C.; Halldin, S.; Lundin, L.; Xu, C.

2012-12-01

Hurricane Mitch in 1998 left a devastating flood in Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras. Simulation of elevated water surfaces provides a good way to understand the hydraulic mechanism of large flood events. In this study the one-dimensional HEC-RAS model for steady flow conditions together with the two-dimensional Lisflood-fp model were used to estimate the water level for the Mitch event in the river reaches at Tegucigalpa. Parameters uncertainty of the model was investigated using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework. Because of the extremely large magnitude of the Mitch flood, no hydrometric measurements were taken during the event. However, post-event indirect measurements of discharge and observed water levels were obtained in previous works by JICA and USGS. To overcome the problem of lacking direct hydrometric measurement data, uncertainty in the discharge was estimated. Both models could well define the value for channel roughness, though more dispersion resulted from the floodplain value. Analysis of the data interaction showed that there was a tradeoff between discharge at the outlet and floodplain roughness for the 1D model. The estimated discharge range at the outlet of the study area encompassed the value indirectly estimated by JICA, however the indirect method used by the USGS overestimated the value. If behavioral parameter sets can well reproduce water surface levels for past events such as Mitch, more reliable predictions for future events can be expected. The results acquired in this research will provide guidelines to deal with the problem of modeling past floods when no direct data was measured during the event, and to predict future large events taking uncertainty into account. The obtained range of the uncertain flood extension will be an outcome useful for decision makers.

Comparing Alternative Effect Decomposition Methods: The Role of Literacy in Mediating Educational Effects on Mortality.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thu T; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Kawachi, Ichiro; Gilman, Stephen E; Walter, Stefan; Glymour, M Maria

2016-09-01

Inverse odds ratio weighting, a newly proposed tool to evaluate mediation in exposure-disease associations, may be valuable for a host of research questions, but little is known about its performance in real data. We compare this approach to a more conventional Baron and Kenny type of decomposition on an additive hazards scale to estimate total, direct, and indirect effects using the example of the role of literacy in mediating the effects of education on mortality. Health and Retirement Study participants born in the United States between 1900 and 1947 were interviewed biennially for up to 12 years (N = 17,054). Literacy was measured with a brief vocabulary assessment. Decomposition estimates were derived based on Aalen additive hazards models. A 1 standard deviation difference in educational attainment (3 years) was associated with 6.7 fewer deaths per 1000 person-years (β = -6.7, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -7.9, -5.4). Of this decrease, 1.3 fewer deaths (β = -1.3, 95% CI: -4.0, 1.2) were attributed to the literacy pathway (natural indirect), representing 19% of the total effect. Baron and Kenny estimates were consistent with inverse odds ratio weighting estimates but were less variable (natural indirect effect: -1.2 [95% CI: -1.7, -0.69], representing 18% of total effect). In a cohort of older Americans, literacy partially mediated the effect of education on mortality. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/EDE/B78.

The costs of hepatitis A infections in South Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, Kyohyun; Jeong, Baek-Geun; Ki, Moran; Park, Mira; Park, Jin Kyung; Choi, Bo Youl; Yoo, Weon-Seob

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The incidence of hepatitis A infections among young adults has recently increased in South Korea. Although universal vaccination has often been suggested to mitigate the problem, its rationale has not been well-understood. Estimating the societal costs of hepatitis A infections might support the development of intervention strategies. METHODS: We classified hepatitis A infections into eight clinical pathways and estimated the number of occurrences and cost per case for each clinical pathway using claim data from National Health Insurance and several national surveys as well as assumptions based on previous studies. To determine the total costs of a hepatitis A infection, both direct and indirect costs were estimated. Indirect costs were estimated using the human-capital approach. All costs are adjusted to the year 2008. RESULTS: There were 30,240 identified cases of hepatitis A infections in 2008 for a total cost of 80,873 million won (2.7 million won per case). Direct and indirect costs constituted 56.2% and 43.8% of the total costs, respectively. People aged 20-39 accounted for 71.3% of total cases and 74.6% of total costs. Medical costs per capita were the lowest in the 0-4 age group and highest in the 20-29 age group. CONCLUSIONS: This study could provide evidence for development of cost-effective interventions to control hepatitis A infections. But the true costs including uncaptured and intangible costs of hepatitis A infections might be higher than our results indicate. PMID:25139060

Large CO 2 effluxes at night and during synoptic weather events significantly contribute to CO 2 emissions from a reservoir

DOE PAGES

Liu, Heping; Zhang, Qianyu; Katul, Gabriel G.; ...

2016-05-24

CO 2 emissions from inland waters are commonly determined by indirect methods that are based on the product of a gas transfer coefficient and the concentration gradient at the air water interface (e.g., wind-based gas transfer models). The measurements of concentration gradient are typically collected during the day in fair weather throughout the course of a year. Direct measurements of eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes from a large inland water body (Ross Barnett reservoir, Mississippi, USA) show that CO 2 effluxes at night are approximately 70% greater than those during the day. At longer time scales, frequent synoptic weather eventsmore » associated with extratropical cyclones induce CO 2 flux pulses, resulting in further increase in annual CO 2 effluxes by 16%. Therefore, CO 2 emission rates from this reservoir, if these diel and synoptic processes are under-sampled, are likely to be underestimated by approximately 40%. Our results also indicate that the CO 2 emission rates from global inland waters reported in the literature, when based on indirect methods, are likely underestimated. Field samplings and indirect modeling frameworks that estimate CO 2 emissions should account for both daytime-nighttime efflux difference and enhanced emissions during synoptic weather events. Furthermore, the analysis here can guide carbon emission sampling to improve regional carbon estimates.« less

Large CO 2 effluxes at night and during synoptic weather events significantly contribute to CO 2 emissions from a reservoir

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Heping; Zhang, Qianyu; Katul, Gabriel G.

CO 2 emissions from inland waters are commonly determined by indirect methods that are based on the product of a gas transfer coefficient and the concentration gradient at the air water interface (e.g., wind-based gas transfer models). The measurements of concentration gradient are typically collected during the day in fair weather throughout the course of a year. Direct measurements of eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes from a large inland water body (Ross Barnett reservoir, Mississippi, USA) show that CO 2 effluxes at night are approximately 70% greater than those during the day. At longer time scales, frequent synoptic weather eventsmore » associated with extratropical cyclones induce CO 2 flux pulses, resulting in further increase in annual CO 2 effluxes by 16%. Therefore, CO 2 emission rates from this reservoir, if these diel and synoptic processes are under-sampled, are likely to be underestimated by approximately 40%. Our results also indicate that the CO 2 emission rates from global inland waters reported in the literature, when based on indirect methods, are likely underestimated. Field samplings and indirect modeling frameworks that estimate CO 2 emissions should account for both daytime-nighttime efflux difference and enhanced emissions during synoptic weather events. Furthermore, the analysis here can guide carbon emission sampling to improve regional carbon estimates.« less

Indirect monitoring shot-to-shot shock waves strength reproducibility during pump-probe experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pikuz, T. A.; Faenov, A. Ya.; Ozaki, N.; Hartley, N. J.; Albertazzi, B.; Matsuoka, T.; Takahashi, K.; Habara, H.; Tange, Y.; Matsuyama, S.; Yamauchi, K.; Ochante, R.; Sueda, K.; Sakata, O.; Sekine, T.; Sato, T.; Umeda, Y.; Inubushi, Y.; Yabuuchi, T.; Togashi, T.; Katayama, T.; Yabashi, M.; Harmand, M.; Morard, G.; Koenig, M.; Zhakhovsky, V.; Inogamov, N.; Safronova, A. S.; Stafford, A.; Skobelev, I. Yu.; Pikuz, S. A.; Okuchi, T.; Seto, Y.; Tanaka, K. A.; Ishikawa, T.; Kodama, R.

2016-07-01

We present an indirect method of estimating the strength of a shock wave, allowing on line monitoring of its reproducibility in each laser shot. This method is based on a shot-to-shot measurement of the X-ray emission from the ablated plasma by a high resolution, spatially resolved focusing spectrometer. An optical pump laser with energy of 1.0 J and pulse duration of ˜660 ps was used to irradiate solid targets or foils with various thicknesses containing Oxygen, Aluminum, Iron, and Tantalum. The high sensitivity and resolving power of the X-ray spectrometer allowed spectra to be obtained on each laser shot and to control fluctuations of the spectral intensity emitted by different plasmas with an accuracy of ˜2%, implying an accuracy in the derived electron plasma temperature of 5%-10% in pump-probe high energy density science experiments. At nano- and sub-nanosecond duration of laser pulse with relatively low laser intensities and ratio Z/A ˜ 0.5, the electron temperature follows Te ˜ Ilas2/3. Thus, measurements of the electron plasma temperature allow indirect estimation of the laser flux on the target and control its shot-to-shot fluctuation. Knowing the laser flux intensity and its fluctuation gives us the possibility of monitoring shot-to-shot reproducibility of shock wave strength generation with high accuracy.

Walking Distance Estimation Using Walking Canes with Inertial Sensors

PubMed Central

Suh, Young Soo

2018-01-01

A walking distance estimation algorithm for cane users is proposed using an inertial sensor unit attached to various positions on the cane. A standard inertial navigation algorithm using an indirect Kalman filter was applied to update the velocity and position of the cane during movement. For quadripod canes, a standard zero-velocity measurement-updating method is proposed. For standard canes, a velocity-updating method based on an inverted pendulum model is proposed. The proposed algorithms were verified by three walking experiments with two different types of canes and different positions of the sensor module. PMID:29342971

Accuracy of Noninvasive Estimation Techniques for the State of the Cochlear Amplifier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalhoff, Ernst; Gummer, Anthony W.

2011-11-01

Estimation of the function of the cochlea in human is possible only by deduction from indirect measurements, which may be subjective or objective. Therefore, for basic research as well as diagnostic purposes, it is important to develop methods to deduce and analyse error sources of cochlear-state estimation techniques. Here, we present a model of technical and physiologic error sources contributing to the estimation accuracy of hearing threshold and the state of the cochlear amplifier and deduce from measurements of human that the estimated standard deviation can be considerably below 6 dB. Experimental evidence is drawn from two partly independent objective estimation techniques for the auditory signal chain based on measurements of otoacoustic emissions.

Notification: Preliminary Research: Review of Independent Government Cost Estimates and Indirect Costs for EPA’s Interagency Agreements

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Project #OA-FY14-0130, February 11, 2014. The EPA OIG plans to begin preliminary research of the independent government cost estimates and indirect costs for the EPA's funds-in interagency agreements.

Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

PubMed

Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

2013-10-29

Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

Estimating chronic hepatitis C prognosis using transient elastography-based liver stiffness: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Erman, A; Sathya, A; Nam, A; Bielecki, J M; Feld, J J; Thein, H-H; Wong, W W L; Grootendorst, P; Krahn, M D

2018-05-01

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a leading cause of hepatic fibrosis and cirrhosis. The level of fibrosis is traditionally established by histology, and prognosis is estimated using fibrosis progression rates (FPRs; annual probability of progressing across histological stages). However, newer noninvasive alternatives are quickly replacing biopsy. One alternative, transient elastography (TE), quantifies fibrosis by measuring liver stiffness (LSM). Given these developments, the purpose of this study was (i) to estimate prognosis in treatment-naïve CHC patients using TE-based liver stiffness progression rates (LSPR) as an alternative to FPRs and (ii) to compare consistency between LSPRs and FPRs. A systematic literature search was performed using multiple databases (January 1990 to February 2016). LSPRs were calculated using either a direct method (given the difference in serial LSMs and time elapsed) or an indirect method given a single LSM and the estimated duration of infection and pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. For validation purposes, FPRs were also estimated. Heterogeneity was explored by random-effects meta-regression. Twenty-seven studies reporting on 39 groups of patients (N = 5874) were identified with 35 groups allowing for indirect and 8 for direct estimation of LSPR. The majority (~58%) of patients were HIV/HCV-coinfected. The estimated time-to-cirrhosis based on TE vs biopsy was 39 and 38 years, respectively. In univariate meta-regressions, male sex and HIV were positively and age at assessment, negatively associated with LSPRs. Noninvasive prognosis of HCV is consistent with FPRs in predicting time-to-cirrhosis, but more longitudinal studies of liver stiffness are needed to obtain refined estimates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mediation analysis when a continuous mediator is measured with error and the outcome follows a generalized linear model

PubMed Central

Valeri, Linda; Lin, Xihong; VanderWeele, Tyler J.

2014-01-01

Mediation analysis is a popular approach to examine the extent to which the effect of an exposure on an outcome is through an intermediate variable (mediator) and the extent to which the effect is direct. When the mediator is mis-measured the validity of mediation analysis can be severely undermined. In this paper we first study the bias of classical, non-differential measurement error on a continuous mediator in the estimation of direct and indirect causal effects in generalized linear models when the outcome is either continuous or discrete and exposure-mediator interaction may be present. Our theoretical results as well as a numerical study demonstrate that in the presence of non-linearities the bias of naive estimators for direct and indirect effects that ignore measurement error can take unintuitive directions. We then develop methods to correct for measurement error. Three correction approaches using method of moments, regression calibration and SIMEX are compared. We apply the proposed method to the Massachusetts General Hospital lung cancer study to evaluate the effect of genetic variants mediated through smoking on lung cancer risk. PMID:25220625

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bonneville, Alain H.; Kouzes, Richard T.

Imaging subsurface geological formations, oil and gas reservoirs, mineral deposits, cavities or magma chambers under active volcanoes has been for many years a major quest of geophysicists and geologists. Since these objects cannot be observed directly, different indirect geophysical methods have been developed. They are all based on variations of certain physical properties of the subsurface that can be detected from the ground surface or from boreholes. Electrical resistivity, seismic wave’s velocities and density are certainly the most used properties. If we look at density, indirect estimates of density distributions are performed currently by seismic reflection methods - since themore » velocity of seismic waves depend also on density - but they are expensive and discontinuous in time. Direct estimates of density are performed using gravimetric data looking at variations of the gravity field induced by the density variations at depth but this is not sufficiently accurate. A new imaging technique using cosmic-ray muon detectors has emerged during the last decade and muon tomography - or muography - promises to provide, for the first time, a complete and precise image of the density distribution in the subsurface. Further, this novel approach has the potential to become a direct, real-time, and low-cost method for monitoring fluid displacement in subsurface reservoirs.« less

Indirect costs in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a review of the economic burden on employers and individuals in the United States.

PubMed

Patel, Jeetvan G; Nagar, Saurabh P; Dalal, Anand A

2014-01-01

To review and summarize existing literature on the indirect burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the US. Medline, Scopus, and OvidSP databases were searched using defined search terms to identify relevant studies. Eligible studies were published in English between January 2000 and April 2012 and calculated the indirect burden of COPD in a US population in terms of prevalence, incidence or costs of productivity loss, disability, morbidity, or mortality. Of 53 studies identified, eleven met eligibility criteria, with data years spanning 1987-2009. Estimates of workforce participation range from 56% to 69% among individuals with COPD and from 65% to 77% among individuals without COPD. Approximately 13%-18% of those with COPD are limited in the amount or type of work they can do and one-third or more experience general activity limitation. Estimates of restricted activity days range from 27-63 days per year. Estimates of mean annual sick leave and/or disability days among employed individuals with COPD range from 1.3-19.4 days. Estimates of bed confinement range from 13-32 days per year. Estimated mean annual indirect costs were $893-$2,234/person (US dollars) with COPD ($1,521-$3,348 in 2010 [US dollars]) and varied with the population studied, specific cost outcomes, and economic inputs. In studies that assessed total (direct and indirect) costs, indirect costs accounted for 27%-61% of total costs, depending on the population studied. COPD is associated with substantial indirect costs. The disease places a burden on employers in terms of lost productivity and associated costs and on individuals in terms of lost income related to absenteeism, activity limitation, and disability. Consideration of indirect as well as direct costs is necessary to gain a more complete view of the societal burden of COPD.

A Cyber Security Self-Assessment Method for Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glantz, Clifford S.; Coles, Garill A.; Bass, Robert B.

2004-11-01

A cyber security self-assessment method (the Method) has been developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The development of the Method was sponsored and directed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Members of the Nuclear Energy Institute Cyber Security Task Force also played a substantial role in developing the Method. The Method's structured approach guides nuclear power plants in scrutinizing their digital systems, assessing the potential consequences to the plant of a cyber exploitation, identifying vulnerabilities, estimating cyber security risks, and adopting cost-effective protective measures. The focus of the Method is on critical digital assets. A critical digital asset is amore » digital device or system that plays a role in the operation, maintenance, or proper functioning of a critical system (i.e., a plant system that can impact safety, security, or emergency preparedness). A critical digital asset may have a direct or indirect connection to a critical system. Direct connections include both wired and wireless communication pathways. Indirect connections include sneaker-net pathways by which software or data are manually transferred from one digital device to another. An indirect connection also may involve the use of instructions or data stored on a critical digital asset to make adjustments to a critical system. The cyber security self-assessment begins with the formation of an assessment team, and is followed by a six-stage process.« less

Indirect costs related to caregivers' absence from work after paediatric tonsil surgery.

PubMed

Gudnadottir, Gunnhildur; Tennvall, G Ragnarson; Stalfors, J; Hellgren, J

2017-06-01

Tonsillotomy has gradually replaced tonsillectomy as the surgical method of choice in children with upper airway obstruction during sleep, because of less postoperative pain and a shorter recovery time. The aim of this study was to examine the costs related to caregivers' absenteeism from work after tonsillectomy (TE) and tonsillotomy (TT). All tonsillectomies and tonsillotomies in Sweden due to upper airway obstruction during 1 year, reported to the National Tonsil Surgery Register in children aged 1-11 were included, n = 4534. The number of days the child needed analgesics after surgery was used as a proxy to estimate the number of work days lost for the caregiver. Data from the Social Insurance Agency (Försäkringskassan) regarding the days the parents received temporary parental benefits in the month following surgery were also analysed. The indirect costs due to the caregivers' absenteeism after tonsillectomy vs tonsillotomy were calculated, using the human capital method. The patient-reported use of postoperative analgesic use was 77% (n = 3510). Data from the Social Insurance Agency were gathered for all 4534 children. The mean duration of analgesic treatment was 4.6 days (indirect cost of EUR 747). The mean number of days with parental benefits was 2.9 (EUR 667). The indirect cost of tonsillectomy was 61% higher than that of tonsillotomy (EUR 1010 vs EUR 629). The results show that the choice of surgical method affects the indirect costs, favouring the use of tonsillotomy over tonsillectomy for the treatment of children with SDB, due to less postoperative pain.

Assessing Mediational Models: Testing and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects.

PubMed

Biesanz, Jeremy C; Falk, Carl F; Savalei, Victoria

2010-08-06

Theoretical models specifying indirect or mediated effects are common in the social sciences. An indirect effect exists when an independent variable's influence on the dependent variable is mediated through an intervening variable. Classic approaches to assessing such mediational hypotheses ( Baron & Kenny, 1986 ; Sobel, 1982 ) have in recent years been supplemented by computationally intensive methods such as bootstrapping, the distribution of the product methods, and hierarchical Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. These different approaches for assessing mediation are illustrated using data from Dunn, Biesanz, Human, and Finn (2007). However, little is known about how these methods perform relative to each other, particularly in more challenging situations, such as with data that are incomplete and/or nonnormal. This article presents an extensive Monte Carlo simulation evaluating a host of approaches for assessing mediation. We examine Type I error rates, power, and coverage. We study normal and nonnormal data as well as complete and incomplete data. In addition, we adapt a method, recently proposed in statistical literature, that does not rely on confidence intervals (CIs) to test the null hypothesis of no indirect effect. The results suggest that the new inferential method-the partial posterior p value-slightly outperforms existing ones in terms of maintaining Type I error rates while maximizing power, especially with incomplete data. Among confidence interval approaches, the bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrapping approach often has inflated Type I error rates and inconsistent coverage and is not recommended; In contrast, the bootstrapped percentile confidence interval and the hierarchical Bayesian MCMC method perform best overall, maintaining Type I error rates, exhibiting reasonable power, and producing stable and accurate coverage rates.

Comparison of Glucose Lowering Effect of Metformin and Acarbose in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Gu, Shuyan; Shi, Jihao; Tang, Zhiliu; Sawhney, Monika; Hu, Huimei; Shi, Lizheng; Fonseca, Vivian; Dong, Hengjin

2015-01-01

Background Metformin is the first-line oral hypoglycemic agent for type 2 diabetes mellitus recommended by international guidelines. However, little information exists comparing it with acarbose which is also commonly used in China. This study expanded knowledge by combining direct and indirect evidence to ascertain the glucose lowering effects of both drugs. Methods PubMed (1980- December 2013) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases (1994-January 2014) were systematically searched for eligible randomized controlled trials from Chinese and English literatures. Meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the glucose lowering effects of metformin vs. acarbose, or either of them vs. common comparators (placebo or sulphonylureas), using random- and fixed-effect models. Bucher method with indirect treatment comparison calculator was applied to convert the summary estimates from the meta-analyses into weighted-mean-difference (WMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to represent the comparative efficacy between metformin and acarbose. Results A total of 75 studies were included in the analysis. In direct comparison (8 trials), metformin reduced glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) by 0.06% more than acarbose, with no significant difference (WMD,-0.06%; 95% CI, -0.32% to 0.20%). In indirect comparisons (67 trials), by using placebo and sulphonylureas as common comparators, metformin achieved significant HbA1c reduction than acarbose, by -0.38% (WMD,-0.38%, 95% CI, -0.736% to -0.024%) and -0.34% (WMD, -0.34%, 95% CI, -0.651% to -0.029%) respectively. Conclusion The glucose lowering effects of metformin monotherapy and acarbose monotherapy are the same by direct comparison, while metformin is a little better by indirect comparison. This implies that the effect of metformin is at least as good as acarbose's. PMID:25961824

Indirect Dietary Residential Exposure Assessment Model (IDREAM) Implementation

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Indirect Dietary Residential Exposure Assessment Model (IDREAM) estimates indirect ingestion exposure to disinfectants used in residential settings on hard surfaces where there may be inadvertent transfer to edible items prepared on those surfaces.

A systematic review of the social and economic burden of influenza in low- and middle-income countries.

PubMed

de Francisco Shapovalova, Natasha; Donadel, Morgane; Jit, Mark; Hutubessy, Raymond

2015-11-27

The economic burden of seasonal influenza outbreaks as well as influenza pandemics in lower- and middle-income countries (LMIC) has yet to be specifically systematically reviewed. The aim of this systematic review is to assess the evidence of influenza economic burden assessment methods in LMIC and to quantify the economic consequences of influenza disease in these countries, including broader opportunity costs in terms of impaired social progress and economic development. We conducted an all language literature search across 5 key databases using an extensive list of key words for the time period 1950-2013. We included studies which explored direct costs (medical and non-medical), indirect costs (productivity losses), and broader economic impact in LMIC associated with different influenza outcomes such as confirmed seasonal influenza infection, influenza-like illnesses, and pandemic influenza. We included 62 full-text studies in English, Spanish, Russian, Chinese languages, mostly from the countries of Latin American and the Caribbean and East Asia and Pacific with pertinent cost data found in 39 papers. Estimates for direct and indirect costs were the highest in Latin American and the Caribbean. Compared to high-income economies, direct costs in LMIC were lower and productivity losses higher. Evidence on broader impact of influenza included impact on the wider national economy, security dimension, medical insurance policy, legal frameworks, distributional impact, and investment flows. The economic burden of influenza in LMIC encompasses multiple dimensions such as direct costs to the health service and households, indirect costs due to productivity losses as well as broader detriments to the wider economy. Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa and in pregnant women remains very limited. Heterogeneity of methods used to estimate cost components makes data synthesis challenging. There is a strong need for standardizing research, data collection and evaluation methods for both direct and indirect cost components. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective Radius of Ice Cloud Particle Populations Derived from Aircraft Probes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Schmitt, Carl; Bansemer, Aaron; vanZadelhoff, Gerd-Jan; McGill, Matthew J.; Twohy, Cynthia

2005-01-01

The effective radius(r(sub e)) is a crucial variable in representing the radiative properties of cloud layers in general circulation models. This parameter is proportional to the condensed water content (CWC) divided by the extinction (sigma). For ice cloud layers, parameterizations for r(sub e), have been developed from aircraft in-situ measurements 1) indirectly, using data obtained from particle spectrometer probes and assumptions or observations about particle shape and mass to get the ice water content (IWC) and area to get sigma, and recently 2) from probes that measure IWC and sigma directly. This study compares [IWC/sigma] derived from the two methods using data sets acquired from comparable instruments on two aircraft, one sampling clouds at mid-levels and the other at upper-levels during the CRYSTAL-FACE field program in Florida in 2002. The sigma and IWC derived by each method are compared and evaluated in different ways for each aircraft data set. Direct measurements of sigma exceed those derived indirectly by a factor of two to two and a half. The IWC probes, relying on ice sublimation, appear to measure accurately except when the IWC is high or the particles too large to sublimate completely during the short transit time through the probe. The IWC estimated from the particle probes are accurate when direct measurements are available to provide constraints and useful information in high IWC/large particle situations. Because of the discrepancy in sigma estimates between the direct and indirect approaches, there is a factor of 2 to 3 difference in [IWC/sigma] between them. Although there are significant uncertainties involved in its use, comparisons with several independent data sources suggest that the indirect method is the more accurate of the two approaches. However, experiments are needed to resolve the source of the discrepancy in sigma.

Modelling Geomechanical Heterogeneity of Rock Masses Using Direct and Indirect Geostatistical Conditional Simulation Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eivazy, Hesameddin; Esmaieli, Kamran; Jean, Raynald

2017-12-01

An accurate characterization and modelling of rock mass geomechanical heterogeneity can lead to more efficient mine planning and design. Using deterministic approaches and random field methods for modelling rock mass heterogeneity is known to be limited in simulating the spatial variation and spatial pattern of the geomechanical properties. Although the applications of geostatistical techniques have demonstrated improvements in modelling the heterogeneity of geomechanical properties, geostatistical estimation methods such as Kriging result in estimates of geomechanical variables that are not fully representative of field observations. This paper reports on the development of 3D models for spatial variability of rock mass geomechanical properties using geostatistical conditional simulation method based on sequential Gaussian simulation. A methodology to simulate the heterogeneity of rock mass quality based on the rock mass rating is proposed and applied to a large open-pit mine in Canada. Using geomechanical core logging data collected from the mine site, a direct and an indirect approach were used to model the spatial variability of rock mass quality. The results of the two modelling approaches were validated against collected field data. The study aims to quantify the risks of pit slope failure and provides a measure of uncertainties in spatial variability of rock mass properties in different areas of the pit.

Mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect milk losses associated with bacterial load in bovine subclinical mammary infections.

PubMed

Detilleux, J; Theron, L; Duprez, J-N; Reding, E; Moula, N; Detilleux, M; Bertozzi, C; Hanzen, C; Mainil, J

2016-08-01

Milk losses associated with mastitis can be attributed to either effects of pathogens per se (i.e. direct losses) or to effects of the immune response triggered by the presence of mammary pathogens (i.e. indirect losses). Test-day milk somatic cell counts (SCC) and number of bacterial colony forming units (CFU) found in milk samples are putative measures of the level of immune response and of the bacterial load, respectively. Mediation models, in which one independent variable affects a second variable which, in turn, affects a third one, are conceivable models to estimate direct and indirect losses. Here, we evaluated the feasibility of a mediation model in which test-day SCC and milk were regressed toward bacterial CFU measured at three selected sampling dates, 1 week apart. We applied this method on cows free of clinical signs and with records on up to 3 test-days before and after the date of the first bacteriological samples. Most bacteriological cultures were negative (52.38%), others contained either staphylococci (23.08%), streptococci (9.16%), mixed bacteria (8.79%) or were contaminated (6.59%). Only losses mediated by an increase in SCC were significantly different from null. In cows with three consecutive bacteriological positive results, we estimated a decreased milk yield of 0.28 kg per day for each unit increase in log2-transformed CFU that elicited one unit increase in log2-transformed SCC. In cows with one or two bacteriological positive results, indirect milk loss was not significantly different from null although test-day milk decreased by 0.74 kg per day for each unit increase of log2-transformed SCC. These results highlight the importance of milk losses that are mediated by an increase in SCC during mammary infection and the feasibility of decomposing total milk loss into its direct and indirect components.

Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound Angiogenesis Imaging by Mutual Information Analysis for Prostate Cancer Localization.

PubMed

Schalk, Stefan G; Demi, Libertario; Bouhouch, Nabil; Kuenen, Maarten P J; Postema, Arnoud W; de la Rosette, Jean J M C H; Wijkstra, Hessel; Tjalkens, Tjalling J; Mischi, Massimo

2017-03-01

The role of angiogenesis in cancer growth has stimulated research aimed at noninvasive cancer detection by blood perfusion imaging. Recently, contrast ultrasound dispersion imaging was proposed as an alternative method for angiogenesis imaging. After the intravenous injection of an ultrasound-contrast-agent bolus, dispersion can be indirectly estimated from the local similarity between neighboring time-intensity curves (TICs) measured by ultrasound imaging. Up until now, only linear similarity measures have been investigated. Motivated by the promising results of this approach in prostate cancer (PCa), we developed a novel dispersion estimation method based on mutual information, thus including nonlinear similarity, to further improve its ability to localize PCa. First, a simulation study was performed to establish the theoretical link between dispersion and mutual information. Next, the method's ability to localize PCa was validated in vivo in 23 patients (58 datasets) referred for radical prostatectomy by comparison with histology. A monotonic relationship between dispersion and mutual information was demonstrated. The in vivo study resulted in a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area equal to 0.77, which was superior (p = 0.21-0.24) to that obtained by linear similarity measures (0.74-0.75) and (p <; 0.05) to that by conventional perfusion parameters (≤0.70). Mutual information between neighboring time-intensity curves can be used to indirectly estimate contrast dispersion and can lead to more accurate PCa localization. An improved PCa localization method can possibly lead to better grading and staging of tumors, and support focal-treatment guidance. Moreover, future employment of the method in other types of angiogenic cancer can be considered.

Methodologies on estimating the energy requirements for maintenance and determining the net energy contents of feed ingredients in swine: a review of recent work.

PubMed

Li, Zhongchao; Liu, Hu; Li, Yakui; Lv, Zhiqian; Liu, Ling; Lai, Changhua; Wang, Junjun; Wang, Fenglai; Li, Defa; Zhang, Shuai

2018-01-01

In the past two decades, a considerable amount of research has focused on the determination of the digestible (DE) and metabolizable energy (ME) contents of feed ingredients fed to swine. Compared with the DE and ME systems, the net energy (NE) system is assumed to be the most accurate estimate of the energy actually available to the animal. However, published data pertaining to the measured NE content of ingredients fed to growing pigs are limited. Therefore, the Feed Data Group at the Ministry of Agricultural Feed Industry Centre (MAFIC) located at China Agricultural University has evaluated the NE content of many ingredients using indirect calorimetry. The present review summarizes the NE research works conducted at MAFIC and compares these results with those from other research groups on methodological aspect. These research projects mainly focus on estimating the energy requirements for maintenance and its impact on the determination, prediction, and validation of the NE content of several ingredients fed to swine. The estimation of maintenance energy is affected by methodology, growth stage, and previous feeding level. The fasting heat production method and the curvilinear regression method were used in MAFIC to estimate the NE requirement for maintenance. The NE contents of different feedstuffs were determined using indirect calorimetry through standard experimental procedure in MAFIC. Previously generated NE equations can also be used to predict NE in situations where calorimeters are not available. Although popular, the caloric efficiency is not a generally accepted method to validate the energy content of individual feedstuffs. In the future, more accurate and dynamic NE prediction equations aiming at specific ingredients should be established, and more practical validation approaches need to be developed.

Wood decay fungi of subalpine conifer forests

Treesearch

Jessie A. Glaeser; Kevin T. Smith

2016-01-01

One of the fundamental skills needed for hazard tree assessment is the evaluation of decay. This may be a difficult task as we usually only use external symptoms (wounds, basal swellings, decayed branch stubs), signs (mushrooms, fungal crusts or brackets) or mechanical/indirect sampling methods (drilling, electrical or sonic resistance) to estimate the amount of sound...

A General Multilevel SEM Framework for Assessing Multilevel Mediation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Preacher, Kristopher J.; Zyphur, Michael J.; Zhang, Zhen

2010-01-01

Several methods for testing mediation hypotheses with 2-level nested data have been proposed by researchers using a multilevel modeling (MLM) paradigm. However, these MLM approaches do not accommodate mediation pathways with Level-2 outcomes and may produce conflated estimates of between- and within-level components of indirect effects. Moreover,…

Is CO2 emission a side effect of financial development? An empirical analysis for China.

PubMed

Hao, Yu; Zhang, Zong-Yong; Liao, Hua; Wei, Yi-Ming; Wang, Shuo

2016-10-01

Based on panel data for 29 Chinese provinces from 1995 to 2012, this paper explores the relationship between financial development and environmental quality in China. A comprehensive framework is utilized to estimate both the direct and indirect effects of financial development on CO 2 emissions in China using a carefully designed two-stage regression model. The first-difference and orthogonal-deviation Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methods are used to control for potential endogeneity and introduce dynamics. To ensure the robustness of the estimations, two indicators measuring financial development-financial depth and financial efficiency-are used. The empirical results indicate that the direct effects of financial depth and financial efficiency on environmental quality are positive and negative, respectively. The indirect effects of both indicators are U shaped and dominate the shape of the total effects. These findings suggest that the influences of the financial development on environment depend on the level of economic development. At the early stage of economic growth, financial development is environmentally friendly. When the economy is highly developed, a higher level of financial development is harmful to the environmental quality.

A Real-Time Method for Estimating Viscous Forebody Drag Coefficients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Stephen A.; Hurtado, Marco; Rivera, Jose; Naughton, Jonathan W.

2000-01-01

This paper develops a real-time method based on the law of the wake for estimating forebody skin-friction coefficients. The incompressible law-of-the-wake equations are numerically integrated across the boundary layer depth to develop an engineering model that relates longitudinally averaged skin-friction coefficients to local boundary layer thickness. Solutions applicable to smooth surfaces with pressure gradients and rough surfaces with negligible pressure gradients are presented. Model accuracy is evaluated by comparing model predictions with previously measured flight data. This integral law procedure is beneficial in that skin-friction coefficients can be indirectly evaluated in real-time using a single boundary layer height measurement. In this concept a reference pitot probe is inserted into the flow, well above the anticipated maximum thickness of the local boundary layer. Another probe is servomechanism-driven and floats within the boundary layer. A controller regulates the position of the floating probe. The measured servomechanism position of this second probe provides an indirect measurement of both local and longitudinally averaged skin friction. Simulation results showing the performance of the control law for a noisy boundary layer are then presented.

The effects of temporal perspective on college students' energy drink consumption.

PubMed

Kim, Jarim; Anagondahalli, Deepa

2017-09-01

Consideration of future consequences (CFC) describes the extent to which individuals consider potential future outcomes of their present behaviors. This personality trait has been found to predict repetitive health behaviors. Research is yet to explore the role of health beliefs, which may mediate the relationship between CFC and self-directed health behaviors. Thus, this study examined how CFC affects energy drink-related health beliefs and consumption behavior. A cross-sectional correlational online survey with 1,050 college students was conducted. Key measures include the CFC Scale, health belief measures, and current energy drink consumption pattern. CFC was associated with energy drink consumption as well as several health beliefs. CFC had indirect effects on energy drink consumption through health beliefs, including perceived severity of consuming energy drinks (indirect effect estimate = -.191, 95% confidence interval [CI] [-.271, -.122]), perceived benefits of avoiding energy drinks (indirect effect estimate = -.108, 95% CI [-.174, -.050]), and perceived barriers in abstaining from energy drinks (energy level-related barriers, indirect effect estimate = -.274, 95% CI [-.387, -.181]; and socialization-related barriers, indirect effect estimate = .152, 95% CI [.078, .249]). As the first study to examine CFC's indirect effects on a self-directed health behavior through health beliefs, this study extended CFC's applicability by examining its role in the context of college students' energy drink consumption. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

National and regional comparisons between Strahler order and stream size

EPA Science Inventory

Water body size is one of the most important factors affecting the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. The categorical variable, Strahler stream order, is frequently used as an indirect estimate of stream size. Other indirect estimates of stream size, such as catchmen...

The Cost of Joint Replacement: Comparing Two Approaches to Evaluating Costs of Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Palsis, John A; Brehmer, Thomas S; Pellegrini, Vincent D; Drew, Jacob M; Sachs, Barton L

2018-02-21

In an era of mandatory bundled payments for total joint replacement, accurate analysis of the cost of procedures is essential for orthopaedic surgeons and their institutions to maintain viable practices. The purpose of this study was to compare traditional accounting and time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) methods for estimating the total costs of total hip and knee arthroplasty care cycles. We calculated the overall costs of elective primary total hip and total knee replacement care cycles at our academic medical center using traditional and TDABC accounting methods. We compared the methods with respect to the overall costs of hip and knee replacement and the costs for each major cost category. The traditional accounting method resulted in higher cost estimates. The total cost per hip replacement was $22,076 (2014 USD) using traditional accounting and was $12,957 using TDABC. The total cost per knee replacement was $29,488 using traditional accounting and was $16,981 using TDABC. With respect to cost categories, estimates using traditional accounting were greater for hip and knee replacement, respectively, by $3,432 and $5,486 for personnel, by $3,398 and $3,664 for space and equipment, and by $2,289 and $3,357 for indirect costs. Implants and consumables were derived from the actual hospital purchase price; accordingly, both methods produced equivalent results. Substantial cost differences exist between accounting methods. The focus of TDABC only on resources used directly by the patient contrasts with the allocation of all operating costs, including all indirect costs and unused capacity, with traditional accounting. We expect that the true costs of hip and knee replacement care cycles are likely somewhere between estimates derived from traditional accounting methods and TDABC. TDABC offers patient-level granular cost information that better serves in the redesign of care pathways and may lead to more strategic resource-allocation decisions to optimize actual operating margins.

Comparison of serum levels of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin with indirect estimates of Agent Orange exposure among Vietnam veterans. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1989-09-01

The report tests the validity of several indirect methods for estimating the exposure of ground troops to Agent Orange in Vietnam during 1966-69. The study identified a sample of U.S. Army Vietnam veterans of that era and asked them to have blood drawn so that the level of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p- dioxin (TCDD) in serum could be measured. These veterans were selected from among those who served in 65 combat battalions in III Corps, a heavily sprayed part of Vietnam around Saigon. The men selected had all served only one tour in Vietnam and had been discharged with a pay grade ofmore » E1-E5, after having spent, on the average, over 300 days in Vietnam. The sample was chosen after the veterans had been stratified on likelihood of exposure (time and space proximity to recorded sprays) according to military records. For comparison, a sample of non-Vietnam U.S. Army veterans of the same era was also examined. The results show no meaningful association between TCDD levels and indirect estimate of Agent Orange exposure in Vietnam, with or without adjustment for other characteristics of the veterans, including age, race, body mass index, and self-reported civilian occupational and home herbicide exposure.« less

Sources of international migration statistics in Africa.

PubMed

1984-01-01

The sources of international migration data for Africa may be classified into 2 main categories: administrative records and 2) censuses and survey data. Both categories are sources for the direct measurement of migration, but the 2nd category can be used for the indirect estimation of net international migration. The administrative records from which data on international migration may be derived include 1) entry/departure cards or forms completed at international borders, 2) residence/work permits issued to aliens, and 3) general population registers and registers of aliens. The statistics derived from the entry/departure cards may be described as 1) land frontier control statistics and 2) port control statistics. The former refer to data derived from movements across land borders and the latter refer to information collected at international airports and seaports. Other administrative records which are potential sources of statistics on international migration in some African countries include some limited population registers, records of the registration of aliens, and particulars of residence/work permits issued to aliens. Although frontier control data are considered the most important source of international migration statistics, in many African countries these data are too deficient to provide a satisfactory indication of the level of international migration. Thus decennial population censuses and/or sample surveys are the major sources of the available statistics on the stock and characteristics of international migration. Indirect methods can be used to supplement census data with intercensal estimates of net migration using census data on the total population. This indirect method of obtaining information on migration can be used to evaluate estimates derived from frontier control records, and it also offers the means of obtaining alternative information on international migration in African countries which have not directly investigated migration topics in their censuses or surveys.

It's positive to be negative: Achilles tendon work loops during human locomotion.

PubMed

Zelik, Karl E; Franz, Jason R

2017-01-01

Ultrasound imaging is increasingly used with motion and force data to quantify tendon dynamics during human movement. Frequently, tendon dynamics are estimated indirectly from muscle fascicle kinematics (by subtracting muscle from muscle-tendon unit length), but there is mounting evidence that this Indirect approach yields implausible tendon work loops. Since tendons are passive viscoelastic structures, when they undergo a loading-unloading cycle they must exhibit a negative work loop (i.e., perform net negative work). However, prior studies using this Indirect approach report large positive work loops, often estimating that tendons return 2-5 J of elastic energy for every 1 J of energy stored. More direct ultrasound estimates of tendon kinematics have emerged that quantify tendon elongations by tracking either the muscle-tendon junction or localized tendon tissue. However, it is unclear if these yield more plausible estimates of tendon dynamics. Our objective was to compute tendon work loops and hysteresis losses using these two Direct tendon kinematics estimates during human walking. We found that Direct estimates generally resulted in negative work loops, with average tendon hysteresis losses of 2-11% at 1.25 m/s and 33-49% at 0.75 m/s (N = 8), alluding to 0.51-0.98 J of tendon energy returned for every 1 J stored. We interpret this finding to suggest that Direct approaches provide more plausible estimates than the Indirect approach, and may be preferable for understanding tendon energy storage and return. However, the Direct approaches did exhibit speed-dependent trends that are not consistent with isolated, in vitro tendon hysteresis losses of about 5-10%. These trends suggest that Direct estimates also contain some level of error, albeit much smaller than Indirect estimates. Overall, this study serves to highlight the complexity and difficulty of estimating tendon dynamics non-invasively, and the care that must be taken to interpret biological function from current ultrasound-based estimates.

Using average cost methods to estimate encounter-level costs for medical-surgical stays in the VA.

PubMed

Wagner, Todd H; Chen, Shuo; Barnett, Paul G

2003-09-01

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) maintains discharge abstracts, but these do not include cost information. This article describes the methods the authors used to estimate the costs of VA medical-surgical hospitalizations in fiscal years 1998 to 2000. They estimated a cost regression with 1996 Medicare data restricted to veterans receiving VA care in an earlier year. The regression accounted for approximately 74 percent of the variance in cost-adjusted charges, and it proved to be robust to outliers and the year of input data. The beta coefficients from the cost regression were used to impute costs of VA medical-surgical hospital discharges. The estimated aggregate costs were reconciled with VA budget allocations. In addition to the direct medical costs, their cost estimates include indirect costs and physician services; both of these were allocated in proportion to direct costs. They discuss the method's limitations and application in other health care systems.

Associations between lifestyle and air pollution exposure: Potential for confounding in large administrative data cohorts.

PubMed

Strak, Maciej; Janssen, Nicole; Beelen, Rob; Schmitz, Oliver; Karssenberg, Derek; Houthuijs, Danny; van den Brink, Carolien; Dijst, Martin; Brunekreef, Bert; Hoek, Gerard

2017-07-01

Cohorts based on administrative data have size advantages over individual cohorts in investigating air pollution risks, but often lack in-depth information on individual risk factors related to lifestyle. If there is a correlation between lifestyle and air pollution, omitted lifestyle variables may result in biased air pollution risk estimates. Correlations between lifestyle and air pollution can be induced by socio-economic status affecting both lifestyle and air pollution exposure. Our overall aim was to assess potential confounding by missing lifestyle factors on air pollution mortality risk estimates. The first aim was to assess associations between long-term exposure to several air pollutants and lifestyle factors. The second aim was to assess whether these associations were sensitive to adjustment for individual and area-level socioeconomic status (SES), and whether they differed between subgroups of the population. Using the obtained air pollution-lifestyle associations and indirect adjustment methods, our third aim was to investigate the potential bias due to missing lifestyle information on air pollution mortality risk estimates in administrative cohorts. We used a recent Dutch national health survey of 387,195 adults to investigate the associations of PM 10 , PM 2.5 , PM 2.5-10 , PM 2.5 absorbance, OP DTT, OP ESR and NO 2 annual average concentrations at the residential address from land use regression models with individual smoking habits, alcohol consumption, physical activity and body mass index. We assessed the associations with and without adjustment for neighborhood and individual SES characteristics typically available in administrative data cohorts. We illustrated the effect of including lifestyle information on the air pollution mortality risk estimates in administrative cohort studies using a published indirect adjustment method. Current smoking and alcohol consumption were generally positively associated with air pollution. Physical activity and overweight were negatively associated with air pollution. The effect estimates were small (mostly <5% of the air pollutant standard deviations). Direction and magnitude of the associations depended on the pollutant, use of continuous vs. categorical scale of the lifestyle variable, and level of adjustment for individual and area-level SES. Associations further differed between subgroups (age, sex) in the population. Despite the small associations between air pollution and smoking intensity, indirect adjustment resulted in considerable changes of air pollution risk estimates for cardiovascular and especially lung cancer mortality. Individual lifestyle-related risk factors were weakly associated with long-term exposure to air pollution in the Netherlands. Indirect adjustment for missing lifestyle factors in administrative data cohort studies may substantially affect air pollution mortality risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Role of Interfacial Water in Protein-Ligand Binding: Insights from the Indirect Solvent Mediated Potential of Mean Force.

PubMed

Cui, Di; Zhang, Bin W; Matubayasi, Nobuyuki; Levy, Ronald M

2018-02-13

Classical density functional theory (DFT) can be used to relate the thermodynamic properties of solutions to the indirect solvent mediated part of the solute-solvent potential of mean force (PMF). Standard, but powerful numerical methods can be used to estimate the solute-solvent PMF from which the indirect part can be extracted. In this work we show how knowledge of the direct and indirect parts of the solute-solvent PMF for water at the interface of a protein receptor can be used to gain insights about how to design tighter binding ligands. As we show, the indirect part of the solute-solvent PMF is equal to the sum of the 1-body (energy + entropy) terms in the inhomogeneous solvation theory (IST) expansion of the solvation free energy. To illustrate the effect of displacing interfacial water molecules with particular direct/indirect PMF signatures on the binding of ligands, we carry out simulations of protein binding with several pairs of congeneric ligands. We show that interfacial water locations that contribute favorably or unfavorably at the 1-body level (energy + entropy) to the solvation free energy of the solute can be targeted as part of the ligand design process. Water locations where the indirect PMF is larger in magnitude provide better targets for displacement when adding a functional group to a ligand core.

Certainty Equivalence M-MRAC for Systems with Unmatched Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje

2012-01-01

The paper presents a certainty equivalence state feedback indirect adaptive control design method for the systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties. The approach is based on the parameter identification (estimation) model, which is completely separated from the control design and is capable of producing parameter estimates as fast as the computing power allows without generating high frequency oscillations. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters.

Human joint motion estimation for electromyography (EMG)-based dynamic motion control.

PubMed

Zhang, Qin; Hosoda, Ryo; Venture, Gentiane

2013-01-01

This study aims to investigate a joint motion estimation method from Electromyography (EMG) signals during dynamic movement. In most EMG-based humanoid or prosthetics control systems, EMG features were directly or indirectly used to trigger intended motions. However, both physiological and nonphysiological factors can influence EMG characteristics during dynamic movements, resulting in subject-specific, non-stationary and crosstalk problems. Particularly, when motion velocity and/or joint torque are not constrained, joint motion estimation from EMG signals are more challenging. In this paper, we propose a joint motion estimation method based on muscle activation recorded from a pair of agonist and antagonist muscles of the joint. A linear state-space model with multi input single output is proposed to map the muscle activity to joint motion. An adaptive estimation method is proposed to train the model. The estimation performance is evaluated in performing a single elbow flexion-extension movement in two subjects. All the results in two subjects at two load levels indicate the feasibility and suitability of the proposed method in joint motion estimation. The estimation root-mean-square error is within 8.3% ∼ 10.6%, which is lower than that being reported in several previous studies. Moreover, this method is able to overcome subject-specific problem and compensate non-stationary EMG properties.

Productivity loss due to overweight and obesity: a systematic review of indirect costs

PubMed Central

Goettler, Andrea; Grosse, Anna

2017-01-01

Objective The increasingly high levels of overweight and obesity among the workforce are accompanied by a hidden cost burden due to losses in productivity. This study reviews the extent of indirect cost of overweight and obesity. Methods A systematic search was conducted in eight electronic databases (PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science Core Collection, PsychInfo, Cinahl, EconLit and ClinicalTrial.gov). Additional studies were added from reference lists of original studies and reviews. Studies were eligible if they were published between January 2000 and June 2017 and included monetary estimates of indirect costs of overweight and obesity. The authors reviewed studies independently and assessed their quality. Results Of the 3626 search results, 50 studies met the inclusion criteria. A narrative synthesis of the reviewed studies revealed substantial costs due to lost productivity among workers with obesity. Especially absenteeism and presenteeism contribute to high indirect costs. However, the methodologies and results vary greatly, especially regarding the cost of overweight, which was even associated with lower indirect costs than normal weight in three studies. Conclusion The evidence predominantly confirms substantial short-term and long-term indirect costs of overweight and obesity in the absence of effective customised prevention programmes and thus demonstrates the extent of the burden of obesity beyond the healthcare sector. PMID:28982806

Fusion of electromagnetic trackers to improve needle deflection estimation: simulation study.

PubMed

Sadjadi, Hossein; Hashtrudi-Zaad, Keyvan; Fichtinger, Gabor

2013-10-01

We present a needle deflection estimation method to anticipate needle bending during insertion into deformable tissue. Using limited additional sensory information, our approach reduces the estimation error caused by uncertainties inherent in the conventional needle deflection estimation methods. We use Kalman filters to combine a kinematic needle deflection model with the position measurements of the base and the tip of the needle taken by electromagnetic (EM) trackers. One EM tracker is installed on the needle base and estimates the needle tip position indirectly using the kinematic needle deflection model. Another EM tracker is installed on the needle tip and estimates the needle tip position through direct, but noisy measurements. Kalman filters are then employed to fuse these two estimates in real time and provide a reliable estimate of the needle tip position, with reduced variance in the estimation error. We implemented this method to compensate for needle deflection during simulated needle insertions and performed sensitivity analysis for various conditions. At an insertion depth of 150 mm, we observed needle tip estimation error reductions in the range of 28% (from 1.8 to 1.3 mm) to 74% (from 4.8 to 1.2 mm), which demonstrates the effectiveness of our method, offering a clinically practical solution.

Estimated cost of overactive bladder in Thailand.

PubMed

Prasopsanti, Kriangsak; Santi-Ngamkun, Apirak; Pornprasit, Kanokwan

2007-11-01

To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of overactive bladder (OAB) in indigenous Thai people aged 18 years and over in the year 2005. Economically based models using diagnostic and treatment algorithms from clinical practice guidelines and current disease prevalence data were used to estimate direct and indirect costs of OAB. Prevalence and event probability estimates were obtained from the literature, national data sets, and expert opinion. Costs were estimated from a small survey using a cost questionnaire and from unit costs of King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital. The annual cost of OAB in Thailand is estimated as 1.9 billion USD. It is estimated to consume 1.14% of national GDP The cost includes 0.33 billion USD for direct medical costs, 1.3 billion USD for direct, nonmedical costs and 0.29 billion USD for indirect costs of lost productivity. The largest costs category was direct treatment costs of comorbidities associated with OAB. Costs of OAB medication accountedfor 14% of the total costs ofOAB.

Projection of Diabetes Population Size and Associated Economic Burden through 2030 in Iran: Evidence from Micro-Simulation Markov Model and Bayesian Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Javanbakht, Mehdi; Mashayekhi, Atefeh; Baradaran, Hamid R.; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Afshin, Ashkan

2015-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Iran from 2009 to 2030. Methods A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was developed to predict the DM population size and associated economic burden. Age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of diagnosed and undiagnosed DM were derived from national health surveys. A systematic review was performed to identify the cost of diabetes in Iran and the mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM were estimated using a random-effect Bayesian meta-analysis. Face, internal, cross and predictive validity of the MM model were assessed by consulting an expert group, performing sensitivity analysis (SA) and comparing model results with published literature and national survey reports. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to explore the effect of uncertainty in the model. Results We estimated 3.78 million cases of DM (2.74 million diagnosed and 1.04 million undiagnosed) in Iran in 2009. This number is expected to rise to 9.24 million cases (6.73 million diagnosed and 2.50 million undiagnosed) by 2030. The mean annual direct and indirect costs of patients with DM in 2009 were US$ 556 (posterior standard deviation, 221) and US$ 689 (619), respectively. Total estimated annual cost of DM was $3.64 (2009 US$) billion (including US$1.71 billion direct and US$1.93 billion indirect costs) in 2009 and is predicted to increase to $9.0 (in 2009 US$) billion (including US$4.2 billion direct and US$4.8 billion indirect costs) by 2030. Conclusions The economic burden of DM in Iran is predicted to increase markedly in the coming decades. Identification and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and manage DM should be considered as a public health priority. PMID:26200913

FY 2011 4th Quarter Metric: Estimate of Future Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koch, D

2011-09-21

The global and annual mean aerosol direct and indirect effects, relative to 1850 conditions, estimated from CESM simulations are 0.02 W m-2 and -0.39 W m-2, respectively, for emissions in year 2100 under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. The indirect effect is much smaller than that for 2000 emissions because of much smaller SO2 emissions in 2100; the direct effects are small due to compensation between warming by black carbon and cooling by sulfate.

Lost productivity due to premature mortality in developed and emerging countries: an application to smoking cessation

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Researchers and policy makers have determined that accounting for productivity costs, or “indirect costs,” may be as important as including direct medical expenditures when evaluating the societal value of health interventions. These costs are also important when estimating the global burden of disease. The estimation of indirect costs is commonly done on a country-specific basis. However, there are few studies that evaluate indirect costs across countries using a consistent methodology. Methods Using the human capital approach, we developed a model that estimates productivity costs as the present value of lifetime earnings (PVLE) lost due to premature mortality. Applying this methodology, the model estimates productivity costs for 29 selected countries, both developed and emerging. We also provide an illustration of how the inclusion of productivity costs contributes to an analysis of the societal burden of smoking. A sensitivity analysis is undertaken to assess productivity costs on the basis of the friction cost approach. Results PVLE estimates were higher for certain subpopulations, such as men, younger people, and people in developed countries. In the case study, productivity cost estimates from our model showed that productivity loss was a substantial share of the total cost burden of premature mortality due to smoking, accounting for over 75 % of total lifetime costs in the United States and 67 % of total lifetime costs in Brazil. Productivity costs were much lower using the friction cost approach among those of working age. Conclusions Our PVLE model is a novel tool allowing researchers to incorporate the value of lost productivity due to premature mortality into economic analyses of treatments for diseases or health interventions. We provide PVLE estimates for a number of emerging and developed countries. Including productivity costs in a health economics study allows for a more comprehensive analysis, and, as demonstrated by our illustration, can have important effects on the results and conclusions. PMID:22731620

The evaluation of cost-of-illness due to use of cost-of-illness-based chemicals.

PubMed

Hong, Jiyeon; Lee, Yongjin; Lee, Geonwoo; Lee, Hanseul; Yang, Jiyeon

2015-01-01

This study is conducted to estimate the cost paid by the public suffering from disease possibly caused by chemical and to examine the effect on public health. Cost-benefit analysis is an important factor in analysis and decision-making and is an important policy decision tool in many countries. Cost-of-illness (COI), a kind of scale-based analysis method, estimates the potential value lost as a result of illness as a monetary unit and calculates the cost in terms of direct, indirect and psychological costs. This study estimates direct medical costs, transportation fees for hospitalization and outpatient treatment, and nursing fees through a number of patients suffering from disease caused by chemicals in order to analyze COI, taking into account the cost of productivity loss as an indirect cost. The total yearly cost of the diseases studied in 2012 is calculated as 77 million Korean won (KRW) per person. The direct and indirect costs being 52 million KRW and 23 million KRW, respectively. Within the total cost of illness, mental and behavioral disability costs amounted to 16 million KRW, relevant blood immunological parameters costs were 7.4 million KRW, and disease of the nervous system costs were 6.7 million KRW. This study reports on a survey conducted by experts regarding diseases possibly caused by chemicals and estimates the cost for the general public. The results can be used to formulate a basic report for a social-economic evaluation of the permitted use of chemicals and limits of usage.

An indirect estimation of the population size of students with high-risk behaviors in select universities of medical sciences: A network scale-up study.

PubMed

Sajjadi, Homeira; Jorjoran Shushtari, Zahra; Shati, Mohsen; Salimi, Yahya; Dejman, Masoomeh; Vameghi, Meroe; Karimi, Salahedin; Mahmoodi, Zohreh

2018-01-01

Network scale-up is one of the most important indirect methods of estimating the size of clandestine populations and people with high-risk behaviors. The present study is an indirect estimation of the population size of students with high-risk behaviors in select universities of medical sciences. A total of 801 students from two University of Medical Sciences at Tehran and Alborz University of Medical Sciences were selected through convenience sampling. Six subgroups of high-risk behaviors were examined in the study, including Tramadol use, cannabis use, opium use, alcohol consumption, extramarital heterosexual intercourse, and heterosexual intercourse in return for money. To estimate the social network size in the study population, each participant was asked to name their close student friends from the two select universities. Data were collected using a checklist designed for this purpose. The participants' mean number of close friends from the selected medical universities was C = 8.14 (CI: 7.54-8.75). Within these social networks, friends with extramarital heterosexual intercourse (5.53%) and friends who consumed alcohol (4.92%) had the highest frequency, and friends who used opium (0.33%) had the lowest frequency. The variables of age, gender, marital status, type of residence and academic degree were significantly related to the likelihood of having close friends with certain high-risk behaviors (P<0.001). According to the results obtained, alcohol consumption and extramarital heterosexual intercourse are very common among students. Special HIV prevention programs are therefore necessary for this age group.

Indirectly estimated absolute lung cancer mortality rates by smoking status and histological type based on a systematic review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background National smoking-specific lung cancer mortality rates are unavailable, and studies presenting estimates are limited, particularly by histology. This hinders interpretation. We attempted to rectify this by deriving estimates indirectly, combining data from national rates and epidemiological studies. Methods We estimated study-specific absolute mortality rates and variances by histology and smoking habit (never/ever/current/former) based on relative risk estimates derived from studies published in the 20th century, coupled with WHO mortality data for age 70–74 for the relevant country and period. Studies with populations grossly unrepresentative nationally were excluded. 70–74 was chosen based on analyses of large cohort studies presenting rates by smoking and age. Variations by sex, period and region were assessed by meta-analysis and meta-regression. Results 148 studies provided estimates (Europe 59, America 54, China 22, other Asia 13), 54 providing estimates by histology (squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma). For all smoking habits and lung cancer types, mortality rates were higher in males, the excess less evident for never smokers. Never smoker rates were clearly highest in China, and showed some increasing time trend, particularly for adenocarcinoma. Ever smoker rates were higher in parts of Europe and America than in China, with the time trend very clear, especially for adenocarcinoma. Variations by time trend and continent were clear for current smokers (rates being higher in Europe and America than Asia), but less clear for former smokers. Models involving continent and trend explained much variability, but non-linearity was sometimes seen (with rates lower in 1991–99 than 1981–90), and there was regional variation within continent (with rates in Europe often high in UK and low in Scandinavia, and higher in North than South America). Conclusions The indirect method may be questioned, because of variations in definition of smoking and lung cancer type in the epidemiological database, changes over time in diagnosis of lung cancer types, lack of national representativeness of some studies, and regional variation in smoking misclassification. However, the results seem consistent with the literature, and provide additional information on variability by time and region, including evidence of a rise in never smoker adenocarcinoma rates relative to squamous cell carcinoma rates. PMID:23570286

The Cost of Blindness in the Republic of Ireland 2010-2020.

PubMed

Green, D; Ducorroy, G; McElnea, E; Naughton, A; Skelly, A; O'Neill, C; Kenny, D; Keegan, D

2016-01-01

Aims. To estimate the prevalence of blindness in the Republic of Ireland and the associated financial and total economic cost between 2010 and 2020. Methods. Estimates for the prevalence of blindness in the Republic of Ireland were based on blindness registration data from the National Council for the Blind of Ireland. Estimates for the financial and total economic cost of blindness were based on the sum of direct and indirect healthcare and nonhealthcare costs. Results. We estimate that there were 12,995 blind individuals in Ireland in 2010 and in 2020 there will be 17,997. We estimate that the financial and total economic costs of blindness in the Republic of Ireland in 2010 were €276.6 million and €809 million, respectively, and will increase in 2020 to €367 million and €1.1 billion, respectively. Conclusions. Here, ninety-eight percent of the cost of blindness is borne by the Departments of Social Protection and Finance and not by the Department of Health as might initially be expected. Cost of illness studies should play a role in public policy making as they help to quantify the indirect or "hidden" costs of disability and so help to reveal the true cost of illness.

The Cost of Blindness in the Republic of Ireland 2010–2020

PubMed Central

Green, D.; Ducorroy, G.; McElnea, E.; Naughton, A.; Skelly, A.; O'Neill, C.; Kenny, D.; Keegan, D.

2016-01-01

Aims. To estimate the prevalence of blindness in the Republic of Ireland and the associated financial and total economic cost between 2010 and 2020. Methods. Estimates for the prevalence of blindness in the Republic of Ireland were based on blindness registration data from the National Council for the Blind of Ireland. Estimates for the financial and total economic cost of blindness were based on the sum of direct and indirect healthcare and nonhealthcare costs. Results. We estimate that there were 12,995 blind individuals in Ireland in 2010 and in 2020 there will be 17,997. We estimate that the financial and total economic costs of blindness in the Republic of Ireland in 2010 were €276.6 million and €809 million, respectively, and will increase in 2020 to €367 million and €1.1 billion, respectively. Conclusions. Here, ninety-eight percent of the cost of blindness is borne by the Departments of Social Protection and Finance and not by the Department of Health as might initially be expected. Cost of illness studies should play a role in public policy making as they help to quantify the indirect or “hidden” costs of disability and so help to reveal the true cost of illness. PMID:26981276

Indirect monitoring shot-to-shot shock waves strength reproducibility during pump–probe experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pikuz, T. A., E-mail: tatiana.pikuz@eie.eng.osaka-u.ac.jp; Photon Pioneers Center, Osaka University, Suita, Osaka 565-0871 Japan; Joint Institute for High Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow 125412

We present an indirect method of estimating the strength of a shock wave, allowing on line monitoring of its reproducibility in each laser shot. This method is based on a shot-to-shot measurement of the X-ray emission from the ablated plasma by a high resolution, spatially resolved focusing spectrometer. An optical pump laser with energy of 1.0 J and pulse duration of ∼660 ps was used to irradiate solid targets or foils with various thicknesses containing Oxygen, Aluminum, Iron, and Tantalum. The high sensitivity and resolving power of the X-ray spectrometer allowed spectra to be obtained on each laser shot and tomore » control fluctuations of the spectral intensity emitted by different plasmas with an accuracy of ∼2%, implying an accuracy in the derived electron plasma temperature of 5%–10% in pump–probe high energy density science experiments. At nano- and sub-nanosecond duration of laser pulse with relatively low laser intensities and ratio Z/A ∼ 0.5, the electron temperature follows T{sub e} ∼ I{sub las}{sup 2/3}. Thus, measurements of the electron plasma temperature allow indirect estimation of the laser flux on the target and control its shot-to-shot fluctuation. Knowing the laser flux intensity and its fluctuation gives us the possibility of monitoring shot-to-shot reproducibility of shock wave strength generation with high accuracy.« less

A comparison of moment-based methods of estimation for the log Pearson type 3 distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koutrouvelis, I. A.; Canavos, G. C.

2000-06-01

The log Pearson type 3 distribution is a very important model in statistical hydrology, especially for modeling annual flood series. In this paper we compare the various methods based on moments for estimating quantiles of this distribution. Besides the methods of direct and mixed moments which were found most successful in previous studies and the well-known indirect method of moments, we develop generalized direct moments and generalized mixed moments methods and a new method of adaptive mixed moments. The last method chooses the orders of two moments for the original observations by utilizing information contained in the sample itself. The results of Monte Carlo experiments demonstrated the superiority of this method in estimating flood events of high return periods when a large sample is available and in estimating flood events of low return periods regardless of the sample size. In addition, a comparison of simulation and asymptotic results shows that the adaptive method may be used for the construction of meaningful confidence intervals for design events based on the asymptotic theory even with small samples. The simulation results also point to the specific members of the class of generalized moments estimates which maintain small values for bias and/or mean square error.

Paule‐Mandel estimators for network meta‐analysis with random inconsistency effects

PubMed Central

Veroniki, Areti Angeliki; Law, Martin; Tricco, Andrea C.; Baker, Rose

2017-01-01

Network meta‐analysis is used to simultaneously compare multiple treatments in a single analysis. However, network meta‐analyses may exhibit inconsistency, where direct and different forms of indirect evidence are not in agreement with each other, even after allowing for between‐study heterogeneity. Models for network meta‐analysis with random inconsistency effects have the dual aim of allowing for inconsistencies and estimating average treatment effects across the whole network. To date, two classical estimation methods for fitting this type of model have been developed: a method of moments that extends DerSimonian and Laird's univariate method and maximum likelihood estimation. However, the Paule and Mandel estimator is another recommended classical estimation method for univariate meta‐analysis. In this paper, we extend the Paule and Mandel method so that it can be used to fit models for network meta‐analysis with random inconsistency effects. We apply all three estimation methods to a variety of examples that have been used previously and we also examine a challenging new dataset that is highly heterogenous. We perform a simulation study based on this new example. We find that the proposed Paule and Mandel method performs satisfactorily and generally better than the previously proposed method of moments because it provides more accurate inferences. Furthermore, the Paule and Mandel method possesses some advantages over likelihood‐based methods because it is both semiparametric and requires no convergence diagnostics. Although restricted maximum likelihood estimation remains the gold standard, the proposed methodology is a fully viable alternative to this and other estimation methods. PMID:28585257

Effect Size Measures for Mediation Models: Quantitative Strategies for Communicating Indirect Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Preacher, Kristopher J.; Kelley, Ken

2011-01-01

The statistical analysis of mediation effects has become an indispensable tool for helping scientists investigate processes thought to be causal. Yet, in spite of many recent advances in the estimation and testing of mediation effects, little attention has been given to methods for communicating effect size and the practical importance of those…

Aerosol Indirect Effects on Cirrus Clouds in Global Aerosol-Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Zhang, K.; Wang, Y.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.; Ferrachat, S.; Zhou, C.; Penner, J.; Barahona, D.; Shi, X.

2015-12-01

Cirrus clouds play an important role in regulating the Earth's radiative budget and water vapor distribution in the upper troposphere. Aerosols can act as solution droplets or ice nuclei that promote ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. Anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel and biomass burning activities have substantially perturbed and enhanced concentrations of aerosol particles in the atmosphere. Global aerosol-climate models (GCMs) have now been used to quantify the radiative forcing and effects of aerosols on cirrus clouds (IPCC AR5). However, the estimate uncertainty is very large due to the different representation of ice cloud formation and evolution processes in GCMs. In addition, large discrepancies have been found between model simulations in terms of the spatial distribution of ice-nucleating aerosols, relative humidity, and temperature fluctuations, which contribute to different estimates of the aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds. In this presentation, four GCMs with the start-of-the art representations of cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interactions are used to estimate the aerosol indirect effects on cirrus clouds and to identify the causes of the discrepancies. The estimated global and annual mean anthropogenic aerosol indirect effect through cirrus clouds ranges from 0.1 W m-2 to 0.3 W m-2 in terms of the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiation flux, and 0.5-0.6 W m-2 for the TOA longwave flux. Despite the good agreement on global mean, large discrepancies are found at the regional scale. The physics behind the aerosol indirect effect is dramatically different. Our analysis suggests that burden of ice-nucleating aerosols in the upper troposphere, ice nucleation frequency, and relative role of ice formation processes (i.e., homogeneous versus heterogeneous nucleation) play key roles in determining the characteristics of the simulated aerosol indirect effects. In addition to the indirect effect estimate, we also use field campaign measurements and satellite retrievals to evaluate the simulated micro- and macro- physical properties of ice clouds in the four GCMs.

Assessment of indirect losses and costs of emergency for project planning of alpine hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amenda, Lisa; Pfurtscheller, Clemens

2013-04-01

By virtue of augmented settling in hazardous areas and increased asset values, natural disasters such as floods, landslides and rockfalls cause high economic losses in Alpine lateral valleys. Especially in small municipalities, indirect losses, mainly stemming from a breakdown of transport networks, and costs of emergency can reach critical levels. A quantification of these losses is necessary to estimate the worthiness of mitigation measures, to determine the appropriate level of disaster assistance and to improve risk management strategies. There are comprehensive approaches available for assessing direct losses. However, indirect losses and costs of emergency are widely not assessed and the empirical basis for estimating these costs is weak. To address the resulting uncertainties of project appraisals, a standardized methodology has been developed dealing with issues of local economic effects and emergency efforts needed. In our approach, the cost-benefit-analysis for technical mitigation of the Austrian Torrent and Avalanche Control (TAC) will be optimized and extended using the 2005-debris flow as a design event, which struggled a small town in the upper Inn valley in southwest Tyrol (Austria). Thereby, 84 buildings were affected, 430 people were evacuated and due to this, the TAC implemented protection measures for 3.75 million Euros. Upgrading the method of the TAC and analyzing to what extent the cost-benefit-ratio is about to change, is one of the main objectives of this study. For estimating short-run indirect effects and costs of emergency on the local level, data was collected via questionnaires, field mapping, guided interviews, as well as intense literature research. According to this, up-to-date calculation methods were evolved and the cost-benefit-analysis of TAC was recalculated with these new-implemented results. The cost-benefit-ratio will be more precise and specific and hence, the decision, which mitigation alternative will be carried out. Based on this, the worthiness of the mitigation measures can be determined in more detail and the proper level of emergency assistance can be calculated more adequately. By dint of this study, a better data basis will be created evaluating technical and non-technical mitigation measures, which is useful for government agencies, insurance companies and research.

Documentation of methods and inventory of irrigation data collected for the 2000 and 2005 U.S. Geological Survey Estimated use of water in the United States, comparison of USGS-compiled irrigation data to other sources, and recommendations for future compilations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dickens, Jade M.; Forbes, Brandon T.; Cobean, Dylan S.; Tadayon, Saeid

2011-01-01

An indirect method for estimating irrigation withdrawals is presented and results are compared to the 2005 USGS-reported irrigation withdrawals for selected States. This method is meant to demonstrate a way to check data reported or received from a third party, if metered data are unavailable. Of the 11 States where this method was applied, 8 States had estimated irrigation withdrawals that were within 15 percent of what was reported in the 2005 water-use compilation, and 3 States had estimated irrigation withdrawals that were more than 20 percent of what was reported in 2005. Recommendations for improving estimates of irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals also are presented in this report. Conveyance losses and irrigation-system efficiencies should be considered in order to achieve a more accurate representation of irrigation withdrawals. Better documentation of data sources and methods used can help lead to more consistent information in future irrigation water-use compilations. Finally, a summary of data sources and methods used to estimate irrigated acreage and irrigation withdrawals for the 2000 and 2005 compilations for each WSC is presented in appendix 1.

Dynamic Time Warping compared to established methods for validation of musculoskeletal models.

PubMed

Gaspar, Martin; Welke, Bastian; Seehaus, Frank; Hurschler, Christof; Schwarze, Michael

2017-04-11

By means of Multi-Body musculoskeletal simulation, important variables such as internal joint forces and moments can be estimated which cannot be measured directly. Validation can ensued by qualitative or by quantitative methods. Especially when comparing time-dependent signals, many methods do not perform well and validation is often limited to qualitative approaches. The aim of the present study was to investigate the capabilities of the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm for comparing time series, which can quantify phase as well as amplitude errors. We contrast the sensitivity of DTW with other established metrics: the Pearson correlation coefficient, cross-correlation, the metric according to Geers, RMSE and normalized RMSE. This study is based on two data sets, where one data set represents direct validation and the other represents indirect validation. Direct validation was performed in the context of clinical gait-analysis on trans-femoral amputees fitted with a 6 component force-moment sensor. Measured forces and moments from amputees' socket-prosthesis are compared to simulated forces and moments. Indirect validation was performed in the context of surface EMG measurements on a cohort of healthy subjects with measurements taken of seven muscles of the leg, which were compared to simulated muscle activations. Regarding direct validation, a positive linear relation between results of RMSE and nRMSE to DTW can be seen. For indirect validation, a negative linear relation exists between Pearson correlation and cross-correlation. We propose the DTW algorithm for use in both direct and indirect quantitative validation as it correlates well with methods that are most suitable for one of the tasks. However, in DV it should be used together with methods resulting in a dimensional error value, in order to be able to interpret results more comprehensible. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age adjustment in ecological studies: using a study on arsenic ingestion and bladder cancer as an example.

PubMed

Guo, How-Ran

2011-10-20

Despite its limitations, ecological study design is widely applied in epidemiology. In most cases, adjustment for age is necessary, but different methods may lead to different conclusions. To compare three methods of age adjustment, a study on the associations between arsenic in drinking water and incidence of bladder cancer in 243 townships in Taiwan was used as an example. A total of 3068 cases of bladder cancer, including 2276 men and 792 women, were identified during a ten-year study period in the study townships. Three methods were applied to analyze the same data set on the ten-year study period. The first (Direct Method) applied direct standardization to obtain standardized incidence rate and then used it as the dependent variable in the regression analysis. The second (Indirect Method) applied indirect standardization to obtain standardized incidence ratio and then used it as the dependent variable in the regression analysis instead. The third (Variable Method) used proportions of residents in different age groups as a part of the independent variables in the multiple regression models. All three methods showed a statistically significant positive association between arsenic exposure above 0.64 mg/L and incidence of bladder cancer in men and women, but different results were observed for the other exposure categories. In addition, the risk estimates obtained by different methods for the same exposure category were all different. Using an empirical example, the current study confirmed the argument made by other researchers previously that whereas the three different methods of age adjustment may lead to different conclusions, only the third approach can obtain unbiased estimates of the risks. The third method can also generate estimates of the risk associated with each age group, but the other two are unable to evaluate the effects of age directly.

Rumination and depression in Chinese university students: The mediating role of overgeneral autobiographical memory

PubMed Central

Kong, Tianzhu; He, Yini; Auerbach, Randy P.; McWhinnie, Chad M.; Xiao, Jing

2015-01-01

Objective In this study, we examined the mediator effects of overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) on the relationship between rumination and depression in 323 Chinese university students. Method 323 undergraduates completed the questionnaires measuring OGM (Autobiographical Memory Test), rumination (Ruminative Response Scale) and depression (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale). Results Results using structural equation modeling showed that OGM partially-mediated the relationship between rumination and depression (χ2 = 88.61, p < .01; RMSEA = .051; SRMR = .040; and CFI = .91). Bootstrap methods were used to assess the magnitude of the indirect effects. The results of the bootstrap estimation procedure and subsequent analyses indicated that the indirect effects of OGM on the relationship between rumination and depressive symptoms were significant. Conclusion The results indicated that rumination and depression were partially mediated by OGM. PMID:25977594

An Assessment of Common Approaches to Estimating Peak Skin Dose Resulting From Fluoroscopically Guided Interventions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Caleb Martin

Fluoroscopy guided procedures are increasing in complexity, and with that, Peak Skin Doses (PSD) that produce cutaneous radiation injury are a growing concern. Direct measurement of PSD is possible, but the decision to do so must be made in advance. PSD estimates and correctly monitoring their possible deterministic skin injuries are important to patient care. Three methods of indirect PSD estimation are examined for nine cases at MedStar Georgetown University Hospital. The aim of the study is to determine the magnitude of variation between these three methods for estimating the PSD. Method 1 (Fluoroscopy Time and Maximum Entrance Skin Exposure) was used at MedStar Georgetown University Hospital up until 2016. Methods 2 and 3 incorporate procedure information (Reference Point Air Kerma, Source-to-Patent distance, and Backscatter Factor) from DICOM (Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine) tags into PSD estimates. Method 1 PSD estimates are vastly different, by as much as 136%, than those from Methods 2 and 3. Method 2 and 3 PSD estimates differ very little, 7.3% or less. Governing bodies have discounted Method 1 as a reliable dose metric because of its poor correlation with PSD. The accuracy of Method 2 is suitable to determine PSD and which dose band a patient fits so their injuries can be accurately monitored. Method 3, the most time intensive approach, should only be used in the case of a sentinel event where a full investigation is warranted.

Determining the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine coverage required for indirect protection against vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in low and middle-income countries: a protocol for a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Chan, Jocelyn; Nguyen, Cattram D; Lai, Jana Y R; Dunne, Eileen M; Andrews, Ross; Blyth, Christopher C; Datta, Siddhartha; Fox, Kim; Ford, Rebecca; Hinds, Jason; La Vincente, Sophie; Lehmann, Deborah; Lim, Ruth; Mungun, Tuya; Newton, Paul N; Phetsouvanh, Rattanaphone; Pomat, Willam S; Xeuatvongsa, Anonh; von Mollendorf, Claire; Dance, David A B; Satzke, Catherine; Muholland, Kim; Russell, Fiona M

2018-05-18

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) prevent disease through both direct protection of vaccinated individuals and indirect protection of unvaccinated individuals by reducing nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage and transmission of vaccine-type (VT) pneumococci. While the indirect effects of PCV vaccination are well described, the PCV coverage required to achieve the indirect effects is unknown. We will investigate the relationship between PCV coverage and VT carriage among undervaccinated children using hospital-based NP pneumococcal carriage surveillance at three sites in Asia and the Pacific. We are recruiting cases, defined as children aged 2-59 months admitted to participating hospitals with acute respiratory infection in Lao People's Democratic Republic, Mongolia and Papua New Guinea. Thirteen-valent PCV status is obtained from written records. NP swabs are collected according to standard methods, screened using lytA qPCR and serotyped by microarray. Village-level vaccination coverage, for the resident communities of the recruited cases, is determined using administrative data or community survey. Our analysis will investigate the relationship between VT carriage among undervaccinated cases (indirect effects) and vaccine coverage using generalised estimating equations. Ethical approval has been obtained from the relevant ethics committees at participating sites. The results are intended for publication in open-access peer-reviewed journals and will demonstrate methods suitable for low- and middle-income countries to monitor vaccine impact and inform vaccine policy makers about the PCV coverage required to achieve indirect protection. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A Comprehensive Estimation of the Economic Effects of Meteorological Services Based on the Input-Output Method

PubMed Central

Wu, Xianhua; Yang, Lingjuan; Guo, Ji; Lu, Huaguo; Chen, Yunfeng; Sun, Jian

2014-01-01

Concentrating on consuming coefficient, partition coefficient, and Leontief inverse matrix, relevant concepts and algorithms are developed for estimating the impact of meteorological services including the associated (indirect, complete) economic effect. Subsequently, quantitative estimations are particularly obtained for the meteorological services in Jiangxi province by utilizing the input-output method. It is found that the economic effects are noticeably rescued by the preventive strategies developed from both the meteorological information and internal relevance (interdependency) in the industrial economic system. Another finding is that the ratio range of input in the complete economic effect on meteorological services is about 1 : 108.27–1 : 183.06, remarkably different from a previous estimation based on the Delphi method (1 : 30–1 : 51). Particularly, economic effects of meteorological services are higher for nontraditional users of manufacturing, wholesale and retail trades, services sector, tourism and culture, and art and lower for traditional users of agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery, and construction industries. PMID:24578666

A comprehensive estimation of the economic effects of meteorological services based on the input-output method.

PubMed

Wu, Xianhua; Wei, Guo; Yang, Lingjuan; Guo, Ji; Lu, Huaguo; Chen, Yunfeng; Sun, Jian

2014-01-01

Concentrating on consuming coefficient, partition coefficient, and Leontief inverse matrix, relevant concepts and algorithms are developed for estimating the impact of meteorological services including the associated (indirect, complete) economic effect. Subsequently, quantitative estimations are particularly obtained for the meteorological services in Jiangxi province by utilizing the input-output method. It is found that the economic effects are noticeably rescued by the preventive strategies developed from both the meteorological information and internal relevance (interdependency) in the industrial economic system. Another finding is that the ratio range of input in the complete economic effect on meteorological services is about 1 : 108.27-1 : 183.06, remarkably different from a previous estimation based on the Delphi method (1 : 30-1 : 51). Particularly, economic effects of meteorological services are higher for nontraditional users of manufacturing, wholesale and retail trades, services sector, tourism and culture, and art and lower for traditional users of agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery, and construction industries.

Indirect costs of inflammatory bowel diseases: Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. A systematic review.

PubMed

Kawalec, Paweł

2016-04-01

Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis are lifelong illnesses which have a significant impact on quality of life and personal burden through a reduction in the ability to work, sick leave and restrictions of leisure time. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the indirect costs of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. The search was carried out in Medline, EMBASE, the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, and reference lists of identified articles and reference lists of identified articles were also handsearched. All costs were adjusted to 2013 USD values by using the consumer price index and purchasing power parity. Identified studies were then analysed in order to assess their heterogeneity and possibility of inclusion in the meta-analysis. Eleven of the identified publications presented indirect costs of Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis. The range of estimated yearly indirect costs per patient was large, from $1 159.09 for loss of earnings to $14 135.64 for lost productivity and sick leave for Crohn's disease. The values for ulcerative colitis ranged from $926.49 to $6 583.17. Because of the imprecise definition of methods of indirect cost calculations as well as heterogeneity of indirect cost components, a meta-analysis was not performed. The indirect costs of ulcerative colitis seem to be slightly lower than in the case of Crohn's disease. A small number of studies referring to indirect costs of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis were identified, which indicates the need to conduct further investigations on this problem.

Estimation of indirect effect when the mediator is a censored variable.

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Shete, Sanjay

2017-01-01

A mediation model explores the direct and indirect effects of an initial variable ( X) on an outcome variable ( Y) by including a mediator ( M). In many realistic scenarios, investigators observe censored data instead of the complete data. Current research in mediation analysis for censored data focuses mainly on censored outcomes, but not censored mediators. In this study, we proposed a strategy based on the accelerated failure time model and a multiple imputation approach. We adapted a measure of the indirect effect for the mediation model with a censored mediator, which can assess the indirect effect at both the group and individual levels. Based on simulation, we established the bias in the estimations of different paths (i.e. the effects of X on M [ a], of M on Y [ b] and of X on Y given mediator M [ c']) and indirect effects when analyzing the data using the existing approaches, including a naïve approach implemented in software such as Mplus, complete-case analysis, and the Tobit mediation model. We conducted simulation studies to investigate the performance of the proposed strategy compared to that of the existing approaches. The proposed strategy accurately estimates the coefficients of different paths, indirect effects and percentages of the total effects mediated. We applied these mediation approaches to the study of SNPs, age at menopause and fasting glucose levels. Our results indicate that there is no indirect effect of association between SNPs and fasting glucose level that is mediated through the age at menopause.

Self-tuning control of attitude and momentum management for the Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shieh, L. S.; Sunkel, J. W.; Yuan, Z. Z.; Zhao, X. M.

1992-01-01

This paper presents a hybrid state-space self-tuning design methodology using dual-rate sampling for suboptimal digital adaptive control of attitude and momentum management for the Space Station. This new hybrid adaptive control scheme combines an on-line recursive estimation algorithm for indirectly identifying the parameters of a continuous-time system from the available fast-rate sampled data of the inputs and states and a controller synthesis algorithm for indirectly finding the slow-rate suboptimal digital controller from the designed optimal analog controller. The proposed method enables the development of digitally implementable control algorithms for the robust control of Space Station Freedom with unknown environmental disturbances and slowly time-varying dynamics.

Estimates of leaf area index from spectral reflectance of wheat under different cultural practices and solar angle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asrar, G.; Kanemasu, E. T.; Yoshida, M.

1985-01-01

The influence of management practices and solar illumination angle on the leaf area index (LAI) was estimated from measurements of wheat canopy reflectance evaluated by two methods, a regression formula and an indirect technique. The date of planting and the time of irrigation in relation to the stage of plant growth were found to have significant effects on the development of leaves in spring wheat. A reduction in soil moisture adversely affected both the duration and magnitude of the maximum LAI for late planting dates. In general, water stress during vegetative stages resulted in a reduction in maximum LAI, while water stress during the reproductive period shortened the duration of green LAI in spring wheat. Canopy geometry and solar angle also affected the spectral properties of the canopies, and hence the estimated LAI. Increase in solar zenith angles resulted in a general increase in estimated LAI obtained from both methods.

Costs of hospitalization with respiratory syncytial virus illness among children aged <5 years and the financial impact on households in Bangladesh, 2010

PubMed Central

Bhuiyan, Mejbah Uddin; Luby, Stephen P; Alamgir, Nadia Ishrat; Homaira, Nusrat; Sturm–Ramirez, Katharine; Gurley, Emily S.; Abedin, Jaynal; Zaman, Rashid Uz; Alamgir, ASM; Rahman, Mahmudur; Ortega–Sanchez, Ismael R.; Azziz–Baumgartner, Eduardo

2017-01-01

Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute respiratory illness in young children and results in significant economic burden. There is no vaccine to prevent RSV illness but a number of vaccines are in development. We conducted this study to estimate the costs of severe RSV illness requiring hospitalization among children <5 years and associated financial impact on households in Bangladesh. Data of this study could be useful for RSV vaccine development and also the value of various preventive strategies, including use of an RSV vaccine in children if one becomes available. Methods From May through October 2010, children aged <5 years with laboratory–confirmed RSV were identified from a sentinel influenza program database at four tertiary hospitals. Research assistants visited case–patients’ homes after hospital discharge and administered a structured questionnaire to record direct medical costs (physician consultation fee, costs for hospital bed, medicines and diagnostic tests); non–medical costs (costs for food, lodging and transportation); indirect costs (caregivers’ productivity loss), and coping strategies used by families to pay for treatment. We used WHO–Choice estimates for routine health care service costs. We added direct, indirect and health care service costs to calculate cost–per–episode of severe RSV illness. We used Monte Carlo simulation to estimate annual economic burden for severe RSV illness. Findings We interviewed caregivers of 39 persons hospitalized for RSV illness. The median direct cost for hospitalization was US$ 62 (interquartile range [IQR] = 43–101), indirect cost was US$ 19 (IQR = 11–29) and total cost was US$ 94 (IQR = 67–127). The median out–of–pocket cost was 24% of monthly household income of affected families (US$ 143), and >50% families borrowed money to meet treatment cost. We estimated that the median direct cost of RSV–associated hospitalization in children aged <5 years in Bangladesh was US$ 10 million (IQR: US$ 7–16 million), the median indirect cost was US$ 3.0 million (IQR: 2–5 million) in 2010. Conclusion RSV–associated hospitalization among children aged <5 years represents a substantial economic burden in Bangladesh. Affected families frequently incurred considerable out of pocket and indirect costs for treatment that resulted in financial hardship. PMID:28702175

Quantitative assessment of direct and indirect landslide risk along transportation lines in southern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.

2010-06-01

A quantitative approach for landslide risk assessment along transportation lines is presented and applied to a road and a railway alignment in the Nilgiri hills in southern India. The method allows estimating direct risk affecting the alignments, vehicles and people, and indirect risk resulting from the disruption of economic activities. The data required for the risk estimation were obtained from historical records. A total of 901 landslides were catalogued initiating from cut slopes along the railway and road alignment. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, run-out distance, etc and their probability of occurrence was obtained using frequency-volume distribution. Hazard, for a given return period, expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometre of cut slopes, was obtained using Gumbel distribution and probability of landslide magnitude. In total 18 specific hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The assessment of the vulnerability of the road and railway line was based on damage records whereas the vulnerability of different types of vehicles and people was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific loss for the alignments (railway line and road), vehicles (train, bus, lorry, car and motorbike) was expressed in monetary value (US), and direct specific loss of life of commuters was expressed in annual probability of death. Indirect specific loss (US) derived from the traffic interruption was evaluated considering alternative driving routes, and includes losses resulting from additional fuel consumption, additional travel cost, loss of income to the local business, and loss of revenue to the railway department. The results indicate that the total loss, including both direct and indirect loss, from 1 to 50 years return period, varies from US 90 840 to US 779 500 and the average annual total loss was estimated as US 35 000. The annual probability of a person most at risk travelling in a bus, lorry, car, motorbike and train is less than 10-4/annum in all the time periods considered. The detailed estimation of direct and indirect risk will facilitate developing landslide risk mitigation and management strategies for transportation lines in the study area.

Testing survey-based methods for rapid monitoring of child mortality, with implications for summary birth history data.

PubMed

Brady, Eoghan; Hill, Kenneth

2017-01-01

Under-five mortality estimates are increasingly used in low and middle income countries to target interventions and measure performance against global development goals. Two new methods to rapidly estimate under-5 mortality based on Summary Birth Histories (SBH) were described in a previous paper and tested with data available. This analysis tests the methods using data appropriate to each method from 5 countries that lack vital registration systems. SBH data are collected across many countries through censuses and surveys, and indirect methods often rely upon their quality to estimate mortality rates. The Birth History Imputation method imputes data from a recent Full Birth History (FBH) onto the birth, death and age distribution of the SBH to produce estimates based on the resulting distribution of child mortality. DHS FBHs and MICS SBHs are used for all five countries. In the implementation, 43 of 70 estimates are within 20% of validation estimates (61%). Mean Absolute Relative Error is 17.7.%. 1 of 7 countries produces acceptable estimates. The Cohort Change method considers the differences in births and deaths between repeated Summary Birth Histories at 1 or 2-year intervals to estimate the mortality rate in that period. SBHs are taken from Brazil's PNAD Surveys 2004-2011 and validated against IGME estimates. 2 of 10 estimates are within 10% of validation estimates. Mean absolute relative error is greater than 100%. Appropriate testing of these new methods demonstrates that they do not produce sufficiently good estimates based on the data available. We conclude this is due to the poor quality of most SBH data included in the study. This has wider implications for the next round of censuses and future household surveys across many low- and middle- income countries.

Choosing to encourage or discourage: Perceived effectiveness of prescriptive and proscriptive messages

Treesearch

P.L. Winter; B.J. Sagarin; K. Rhoads; D.W. Barrett; R.B. Cialdini

2000-01-01

The estimated cost of repairing damage caused to recreational sites annually is in the hundreds of millions of dollars. These depreciative activities also reduce the quality of visitors’ experiences in the damaged areas. Indirect methods, such as visitor education through brochures and signs, continue to be the least controversial management approaches to depreciative...

Direct estimation of mass flow and diffusion of nitrogen compounds in solution and soil.

PubMed

Oyewole, Olusegun Ayodeji; Inselsbacher, Erich; Näsholm, Torgny

2014-02-01

Plant nutrient uptake from soil is mainly governed by diffusion and transpirationally induced mass flow, but the current methods for assessing the relative importance of these processes are indirect. We developed a microdialysis method using solutions of different osmotic potentials as perfusates to simulate diffusion and mass flow processes, and assessed how induced mass flow affected fluxes of nitrogen (N) compounds in solution and in boreal forest soil. Varying the osmotic potential of perfusates induced vertical fluxes in the direction of the dialysis membranes at rates of between 1 × 10(-8) and 3 × 10(-7)  m s(-1) , thus covering the estimated range of water velocities perpendicular to root surfaces and induced by transpiration. Mass flow increased N fluxes in solution but even more so in soil. This effect was explained by an indirect effect of mass flow on rates of diffusive fluxes, possibly caused by the formation of steeper gradients in concentrations of N compounds from membrane surfaces out in the soil. Our results suggest that transpiration may be an essential driver of plant N acquisition. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

Spatial Interpolation of Reference Evapotranspiration in India: Comparison of IDW and Kriging Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodam, Sanayanbi; Sarkar, Sajal; Marak, Areor G. R.; Bandyopadhyay, A.; Bhadra, A.

2017-12-01

In the present study, to understand the spatial distribution characteristics of the ETo over India, spatial interpolation was performed on the means of 32 years (1971-2002) monthly data of 131 India Meteorological Department stations uniformly distributed over the country by two methods, namely, inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation and kriging. Kriging was found to be better while developing the monthly surfaces during cross-validation. However, in station-wise validation, IDW performed better than kriging in almost all the cases, hence is recommended for spatial interpolation of ETo and its governing meteorological parameters. This study also checked if direct kriging of FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (PM) (Allen et al. in Crop evapotranspiration—guidelines for computing crop water requirements, Irrigation and drainage paper 56, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, 1998) point ETo produced comparable results against ETo estimated with individually kriged weather parameters (indirect kriging). Indirect kriging performed marginally well compared to direct kriging. Point ETo values were extended to areal ETo values by IDW and FAO-56 PM mean ETo maps for India were developed to obtain sufficiently accurate ETo estimates at unknown locations.

Assessing Mediational Models: Testing and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biesanz, Jeremy C.; Falk, Carl F.; Savalei, Victoria

2010-01-01

Theoretical models specifying indirect or mediated effects are common in the social sciences. An indirect effect exists when an independent variable's influence on the dependent variable is mediated through an intervening variable. Classic approaches to assessing such mediational hypotheses (Baron & Kenny, 1986; Sobel, 1982) have in recent years…

A computer-based matrix for rapid calculation of pulmonary hemodynamic parameters in congenital heart disease

PubMed Central

Lopes, Antonio Augusto; dos Anjos Miranda, Rogério; Gonçalves, Rilvani Cavalcante; Thomaz, Ana Maria

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: In patients with congenital heart disease undergoing cardiac catheterization for hemodynamic purposes, parameter estimation by the indirect Fick method using a single predicted value of oxygen consumption has been a matter of criticism. OBJECTIVE: We developed a computer-based routine for rapid estimation of replicate hemodynamic parameters using multiple predicted values of oxygen consumption. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using Microsoft® Excel facilities, we constructed a matrix containing 5 models (equations) for prediction of oxygen consumption, and all additional formulas needed to obtain replicate estimates of hemodynamic parameters. RESULTS: By entering data from 65 patients with ventricular septal defects, aged 1 month to 8 years, it was possible to obtain multiple predictions for oxygen consumption, with clear between-age groups (P <.001) and between-methods (P <.001) differences. Using these predictions in the individual patient, it was possible to obtain the upper and lower limits of a likely range for any given parameter, which made estimation more realistic. CONCLUSION: The organized matrix allows for rapid obtainment of replicate parameter estimates, without error due to exhaustive calculations. PMID:19641642

The economic burden of occupational non-melanoma skin cancer due to solar radiation.

PubMed

Mofidi, Amirabbas; Tompa, Emile; Spencer, James; Kalcevich, Christina; Peters, Cheryl E; Kim, Joanne; Song, Chaojie; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Demers, Paul A

2018-06-01

Solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation is the second most prevalent carcinogenic exposure in Canada and is similarly important in other countries with large Caucasian populations. The objective of this article was to estimate the economic burden associated with newly diagnosed non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) attributable to occupational solar radiation exposure. Key cost categories considered were direct costs (healthcare costs, out-of-pocket costs (OOPCs), and informal caregiver costs); indirect costs (productivity/output costs and home production costs); and intangible costs (monetary value of the loss of health-related quality of life (HRQoL)). To generate the burden estimates, we used secondary data from multiple sources applied to computational methods developed from an extensive review of the literature. An estimated 2,846 (5.3%) of the 53,696 newly diagnosed cases of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and 1,710 (9.2%) of the 18,549 newly diagnosed cases of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in 2011 in Canada were attributable to occupational solar radiation exposure. The combined total for direct and indirect costs of occupational NMSC cases is $28.9 million ($15.9 million for BCC and $13.0 million for SCC), and for intangible costs is $5.7 million ($0.6 million for BCC and $5.1 million for SCC). On a per-case basis, the total costs are $5,670 for BCC and $10,555 for SCC. The higher per-case cost for SCC is largely a result of a lower survival rate, and hence higher indirect and intangible costs. Our estimates can be used to raise awareness of occupational solar UV exposure as an important causal factor in NMSCs and can highlight the importance of occupational BCC and SCC among other occupational cancers.

The cost of diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean.

PubMed Central

Barceló, Alberto; Aedo, Cristian; Rajpathak, Swapnil; Robles, Sylvia

2003-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To measure the economic burden associated with diabetes mellitus in Latin America and the Caribbean. METHODS: Prevalence estimates of diabetes for the year 2000 were used to calculated direct and indirect costs of diabetes mellitus. Direct costs included costs due to drugs, hospitalizations, consultations and management of complications. The human capital approach was used to calculate indirect costs and included calculations of forgone earnings due to premature mortality and disability attributed to diabetes mellitus. Mortality and disability attributed to causes other than diabetes were subtracted from estimates to consider only the excess burden due to diabetes. A 3% discount rate was used to convert future earnings to current value. FINDINGS: The annual number of deaths in 2000 caused by diabetes mellitus was estimated at 339,035. This represented a loss of 757,096 discounted years of productive life among persons younger than 65 years (> billion US dollars). Permanent disability caused a loss of 12,699,087 years and over 50 billion US dollars, and temporary disability caused a loss of 136,701 years in the working population and over 763 million US dollars. Costs associated with insulin and oral medications were 4720 million US dollars, hospitalizations 1012 million US dollars, consultations 2508 million US dollars and care for complications 2,480 million US dollars. The total annual cost associated with diabetes was estimated as 65,216 million US dollars (direct 10,721 US dollars; indirect 54,496 US dollars). CONCLUSION: Despite limitations of the data, diabetes imposes a high economic burden to individuals and society in all countries and to Latin American and the Caribbean as whole. PMID:12640472

Estimating the indirect costs associated with the expected number of cancer cases in Mexico by 2020.

PubMed

Gutiérrez-Delgado, Cristina; Armas-Texta, Daniel; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Meneses-García, Abelardo; Mohar-Betancourt, Alejandro

2016-04-01

To estimate the indirect costs generated by adults with cancer in Mexico from 2002-2020. Using information from national sources and the national cancer incidence from GLOBOCAN, we estimated income lost due to premature death (ILPD), short-term benefits (STBs), disability pensions (DPs), and opportunity costs for the carer (OCCs) generated by patients with cancer. Amounts were reported in Mexican pesos. We estimated 23 359 deaths and 216 679 new cases of cancer by 2020, which would be associated with a total indirect cost of 20.15 billion Mexican pesos. Men are expected to generate 54.9% of these costs. ILPD is expected to comprise the highest percentage of the cost (60%), followed by OCCs (22%), STBs (17%) and DPs (1%). From an economic perspective, the results emphasize the need to strengthen preventive interventions and early detection of cancer among adults to reduce its effect on the productivity of Mexico.

Comparison of methods for the analysis of relatively simple mediation models.

PubMed

Rijnhart, Judith J M; Twisk, Jos W R; Chinapaw, Mai J M; de Boer, Michiel R; Heymans, Martijn W

2017-09-01

Statistical mediation analysis is an often used method in trials, to unravel the pathways underlying the effect of an intervention on a particular outcome variable. Throughout the years, several methods have been proposed, such as ordinary least square (OLS) regression, structural equation modeling (SEM), and the potential outcomes framework. Most applied researchers do not know that these methods are mathematically equivalent when applied to mediation models with a continuous mediator and outcome variable. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to demonstrate the similarities between OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework in three mediation models: 1) a crude model, 2) a confounder-adjusted model, and 3) a model with an interaction term for exposure-mediator interaction. Secondary data analysis of a randomized controlled trial that included 546 schoolchildren. In our data example, the mediator and outcome variable were both continuous. We compared the estimates of the total, direct and indirect effects, proportion mediated, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the indirect effect across OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework. OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework yielded the same effect estimates in the crude mediation model, the confounder-adjusted mediation model, and the mediation model with an interaction term for exposure-mediator interaction. Since OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework yield the same results in three mediation models with a continuous mediator and outcome variable, researchers can continue using the method that is most convenient to them.

Estimating selection through male fitness: three complementary methods illuminate the nature and causes of selection on flowering time

PubMed Central

Austen, Emily J.; Weis, Arthur E.

2016-01-01

Our understanding of selection through male fitness is limited by the resource demands and indirect nature of the best available genetic techniques. Applying complementary, independent approaches to this problem can help clarify evolution through male function. We applied three methods to estimate selection on flowering time through male fitness in experimental populations of the annual plant Brassica rapa: (i) an analysis of mating opportunity based on flower production schedules, (ii) genetic paternity analysis, and (iii) a novel approach based on principles of experimental evolution. Selection differentials estimated by the first method disagreed with those estimated by the other two, indicating that mating opportunity was not the principal driver of selection on flowering time. The genetic and experimental evolution methods exhibited striking agreement overall, but a slight discrepancy between the two suggested that negative environmental covariance between age at flowering and male fitness may have contributed to phenotypic selection. Together, the three methods enriched our understanding of selection on flowering time, from mating opportunity to phenotypic selection to evolutionary response. The novel experimental evolution method may provide a means of examining selection through male fitness when genetic paternity analysis is not possible. PMID:26911957

[Direct and indirect costs associated with respiratory allergic diseases in Italy. A probabilistic cost of illness study].

PubMed

Marcellusi, Andrea; Viti, Raffaella; Incorvaia, Cristoforo; Mennini, Francesco Saverio

2015-10-01

The respiratory allergies, including allergic rhinitis and allergic asthma, represent a substantial medical and economic burden worldwide. Despite their dimension and huge economic-social burden, no data are available on the costs associated with the management of respiratory allergic diseases in Italy. The objective of this study was to estimate the average annual cost incurred by the National Health Service (NHS), as well as society, due to respiratory allergies and their main co-morbidities in Italy. A probabilistic prevalence-based cost of illness model was developed to estimate an aggregate measure of the economic burden associated with respiratory allergies and their main co-morbidities in terms of direct and indirect costs. A systematic literature review was performed in order to identify both the cost per case (expressed in present value) and the number of affected patients, by applying an incidence-based estimation method. Direct costs were estimated multiplying the hospitalization, drugs and management costs derived by the literature with the Italian epidemiological data. Indirect costs were calculated based on lost productivity according to the human capital approach. Furthermore, a one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations were performed, in order to test the robustness of the results and define the proper 95% Confidence Interval (CI). Overall, the total economic burden associated with respiratory allergies and their main co-morbidities was € 7.33 billion (95% CI: € 5.99-€ 8.82). A percentage of 27.5% was associated with indirect costs (€ 2.02; 95% CI: € 1.72-€ 2.34 billion) and 72.5% with direct costs (€ 5.32; 95% CI: € 4.04-€ 6.77 billion). In allergic asthma, allergic rhinitis, combined allergic rhinitis and asthma, turbinate hypertrophy and allergic conjunctivitis, the model estimate an average annual economic burden of € 1,35 (95% CI: € 1,14-€ 1,58) billion, € 1,72 (95% CI: € 1,14-€ 2,43) billion, € 1,62 billion (€ 0,91-€ 2,53) billion, € 0,12 (€ 0,07-€ 0,17) billion, € 0,46 (€ 0,16-€ 0,92) billion respectively. To our knowledge, this is the first study in which direct costs (incurred by NHS) and indirect ones (incurred by the society) were taken into account to estimate the overall burden associated with respiratory allergies and their main co-morbidities in our Country. In conclusion, this work may be considered an efficient tool for public decision-makers to correctly understand the economic aspects involved by the management and treatment of respiratory allergies-induced diseases in Italy.

The spatial impact of neighbouring on the exports activities of COMESA countries by using spatial panel models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamzalouh, L.; Ismail, M. T.; Rahman, R. A.

2017-09-01

In this paper, spatial panel models were used and the method for selecting the best model amongst the spatial fixed effects model and the spatial random effects model to estimate the fitting model by using the robust Hausman test for analysis of the exports pattern of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern African (COMESA) countries. And examine the effects of the interactions of the economic statistic of explanatory variables on the exports of the COMESA. Results indicated that the spatial Durbin model with fixed effects specification should be tested and considered in most cases of this study. After that, the direct and indirect effects among COMESA regions were assessed, and the role of indirect spatial effects in estimating exports was empirically demonstrated. Regarding originality and research value, and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine exports between COMESA and its member countries through spatial panel models using XSMLE, which is a new command for spatial analysis using STATA.

Inverse odds ratio-weighted estimation for causal mediation analysis.

PubMed

Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J

2013-11-20

An important scientific goal of studies in the health and social sciences is increasingly to determine to what extent the total effect of a point exposure is mediated by an intermediate variable on the causal pathway between the exposure and the outcome. A causal framework has recently been proposed for mediation analysis, which gives rise to new definitions, formal identification results and novel estimators of direct and indirect effects. In the present paper, the author describes a new inverse odds ratio-weighted approach to estimate so-called natural direct and indirect effects. The approach, which uses as a weight the inverse of an estimate of the odds ratio function relating the exposure and the mediator, is universal in that it can be used to decompose total effects in a number of regression models commonly used in practice. Specifically, the approach may be used for effect decomposition in generalized linear models with a nonlinear link function, and in a number of other commonly used models such as the Cox proportional hazards regression for a survival outcome. The approach is simple and can be implemented in standard software provided a weight can be specified for each observation. An additional advantage of the method is that it easily incorporates multiple mediators of a categorical, discrete or continuous nature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

2016-03-01

From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states.

Higher-order Multivariable Polynomial Regression to Estimate Human Affective States

PubMed Central

Wei, Jie; Chen, Tong; Liu, Guangyuan; Yang, Jiemin

2016-01-01

From direct observations, facial, vocal, gestural, physiological, and central nervous signals, estimating human affective states through computational models such as multivariate linear-regression analysis, support vector regression, and artificial neural network, have been proposed in the past decade. In these models, linear models are generally lack of precision because of ignoring intrinsic nonlinearities of complex psychophysiological processes; and nonlinear models commonly adopt complicated algorithms. To improve accuracy and simplify model, we introduce a new computational modeling method named as higher-order multivariable polynomial regression to estimate human affective states. The study employs standardized pictures in the International Affective Picture System to induce thirty subjects’ affective states, and obtains pure affective patterns of skin conductance as input variables to the higher-order multivariable polynomial model for predicting affective valence and arousal. Experimental results show that our method is able to obtain efficient correlation coefficients of 0.98 and 0.96 for estimation of affective valence and arousal, respectively. Moreover, the method may provide certain indirect evidences that valence and arousal have their brain’s motivational circuit origins. Thus, the proposed method can serve as a novel one for efficiently estimating human affective states. PMID:26996254

Partial report and other sampling procedures overestimate the duration of iconic memory.

PubMed

Appelman, I B

1980-03-01

In three experiments, subjects estimated the duration of a brief visual image (iconic memory) either directly by adjusting onset of a click to offset of the visual image, or indirectly with a Sperling partial report (sampling) procedure. The results indicated that partial report and other sampling procedures may reflect other brief phenomena along with iconic memory. First, the partial report procedure yields a greater estimate of the duration of iconic memory than the more direct click method. Second, the partial report estimate of the duration of iconic memory is affected if the subject is required to simultaneously retain a list of distractor items (memory load), while the click method estimate of the duration of iconic memory is not affected by a memory load. Finally, another sampling procedure based on visual cuing yields different estimates of the duration of iconic memory depending on how many items are cued. It was concluded that partial report and other sampling procedures overestimate the duration of iconic memory.

Causal mediation analysis with a binary outcome and multiple continuous or ordinal mediators: Simulations and application to an alcohol intervention.

PubMed

Nguyen, Trang Quynh; Webb-Vargas, Yenny; Koning, Ina M; Stuart, Elizabeth A

We investigate a method to estimate the combined effect of multiple continuous/ordinal mediators on a binary outcome: 1) fit a structural equation model with probit link for the outcome and identity/probit link for continuous/ordinal mediators, 2) predict potential outcome probabilities, and 3) compute natural direct and indirect effects. Step 2 involves rescaling the latent continuous variable underlying the outcome to address residual mediator variance/covariance. We evaluate the estimation of risk-difference- and risk-ratio-based effects (RDs, RRs) using the ML, WLSMV and Bayes estimators in Mplus. Across most variations in path-coefficient and mediator-residual-correlation signs and strengths, and confounding situations investigated, the method performs well with all estimators, but favors ML/WLSMV for RDs with continuous mediators, and Bayes for RRs with ordinal mediators. Bayes outperforms WLSMV/ML regardless of mediator type when estimating RRs with small potential outcome probabilities and in two other special cases. An adolescent alcohol prevention study is used for illustration.

Using the simple sample count to estimate the frequency of prescription drug neuroenhancement in a sample of Jordan employees.

PubMed

Wolff, Wanja; Sandouqa, Yaser; Brand, Ralf

2016-05-01

Epidemiological research indicates that the use of prescription drugs to enhance cognitive functioning is prevalent in Western countries, however, research on this phenomenon in Arab countries is lacking. Our study aimed to investigate the frequency of neuroenhancement (NE) using prescription drugs in a sample of employees in Jordan. A sample of 1186 employees (37.11±8.37 years old, 495 female), of whom 723 (35.65±7.53 years old, 396 female) served as teachers, completed a paper-pencil questionnaire. The single sample count technique (SSC) was used in order to secure confidential, self-reporting of prescription drug NE. The 12-month prevalence of NE, estimated with the SSC was 15.43%. At 26.16%, the prevalence estimate was markedly higher in the subsample of teachers compared to non-teachers, 0.29%. Surprisingly, 336 participants did not use the SSC and directly affirmed or denied prescription drug NE. These direct responses yielded a prevalence of 11.57% for the full sample, 9.73% for the teachers and 15.60% for the non-teachers. This is the first study of the frequency of NE in an Arab sample. Results indicate that the use of prescription drug NE is not limited to Western countries and that teachers in Jordan might constitute a high-risk population. Further, participants seem to differ in their use of indirect estimation methods for reporting prescription drug NE. For future research, it might be useful to triangulate standard self-reports and indirect estimation methods to assess NE. Possible cultural differences and specific high-risk populations for NE should be investigated further. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Costs of occupational injuries in agriculture.

PubMed Central

Leigh, J. P.; McCurdy, S. A.; Schenker, M. B.

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to estimate the costs of job-related injuries in agriculture in the United States for 1992. METHODS: The authors reviewed data from national surveys to assess the incidence of fatal and non-fatal farm injuries. Numerical adjustments were made for weaknesses in the most reliable data sets. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Annual Survey estimate of non-fatal injuries is adjusted upward by a factor of 4.7 to reflect the BLS undercount of farm injuries. To assess costs, the authors used the human capital method that allocates costs to direct categories such as medical expenses, as well as indirect categories such as lost earnings, lost home production, and lost fringe benefits. Cost data were drawn from the Health Care Financing Administration and the National Council on Compensation Insurance. RESULTS: Eight hundred forty-one (841) deaths and 512,539 non-fatal injuries are estimated for 1992. The non-fatal injuries include 281,896 that led to at least one full day of work loss. Agricultural occupational injuries cost an estimated $4.57 billion (range $3.14 billion to $13.99 billion) in 1992. On a per person basis, farming contributes roughly 30% more than the national average to occupational injury costs. Direct costs are estimated to be $1.66 billion and indirect costs, $2.93 billion. CONCLUSIONS: The costs of farm injuries are on a par with the costs of hepatitis C. This high cost is in sharp contrast to the limited public attention and economic resources devoted to prevention and amelioration of farm injuries. Agricultural occupational injuries are an underappreciated contributor to the overall national burden of health and medical costs. PMID:12034913

Space structures insulating material's thermophysical and radiation properties estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nenarokomov, A. V.; Alifanov, O. M.; Titov, D. M.

2007-11-01

In many practical situations in aerospace technology it is impossible to measure directly such properties of analyzed materials (for example, composites) as thermal and radiation characteristics. The only way that can often be used to overcome these difficulties is indirect measurements. This type of measurement is usually formulated as the solution of inverse heat transfer problems. Such problems are ill-posed in mathematical sense and their main feature shows itself in the solution instabilities. That is why special regularizing methods are needed to solve them. The experimental methods of identification of the mathematical models of heat transfer based on solving the inverse problems are one of the modern effective solving manners. The objective of this paper is to estimate thermal and radiation properties of advanced materials using the approach based on inverse methods.

Direct contra naïve-indirect comparison of clinical failure rates between high-viscosity GIC and conventional amalgam restorations: an empirical study.

PubMed

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2013-01-01

Naïve-indirect comparisons are comparisons between competing clinical interventions' evidence from separate (uncontrolled) trials. Direct comparisons are comparisons within randomised control trials (RCTs). The objective of this empirical study is to test the null-hypothesis that trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparisons and from direct comparisons/RCTs regarding the failure rates of amalgam and direct high-viscosity glass-ionomer cement (HVGIC) restorations in permanent posterior teeth have similar direction and magnitude. A total of 896 citations were identified through systematic literature search. From these, ten and two uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies for HVGIC and amalgam, respectively, were included for naïve-indirect comparison and could be matched with three out twenty RCTs. Summary effects sizes were computed as Odds ratios (OR; 95% Confidence intervals) and compared with those from RCTs. Trend directions were inferred from 95% Confidence interval overlaps and direction of point estimates; magnitudes of performance differences were inferred from the median point estimates (OR) with 25% and 75% percentile range, for both types of comparison. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to test for statistically significant differences between point estimates of both comparison types. Trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparison based on evidence from uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies and from direct comparisons based on RCT evidence are not the same. The distributions of the point estimates differed significantly for both comparison types (Mann-Whitney U  =  25, n(indirect)  =  26; n(direct)  =  8; p  =  0.0013, two-tailed). The null-hypothesis was rejected. Trends and performance differences inferred from either comparison between HVGIC and amalgam restorations failure rates in permanent posterior teeth are not the same. It is recommended that clinical practice guidance regarding HVGICs should rest on direct comparisons via RCTs and not on naïve-indirect comparisons based on uncontrolled longitudinal studies in order to avoid inflation of effect estimates.

SPSS and SAS procedures for estimating indirect effects in simple mediation models.

PubMed

Preacher, Kristopher J; Hayes, Andrew F

2004-11-01

Researchers often conduct mediation analysis in order to indirectly assess the effect of a proposed cause on some outcome through a proposed mediator. The utility of mediation analysis stems from its ability to go beyond the merely descriptive to a more functional understanding of the relationships among variables. A necessary component of mediation is a statistically and practically significant indirect effect. Although mediation hypotheses are frequently explored in psychological research, formal significance tests of indirect effects are rarely conducted. After a brief overview of mediation, we argue the importance of directly testing the significance of indirect effects and provide SPSS and SAS macros that facilitate estimation of the indirect effect with a normal theory approach and a bootstrap approach to obtaining confidence intervals, as well as the traditional approach advocated by Baron and Kenny (1986). We hope that this discussion and the macros will enhance the frequency of formal mediation tests in the psychology literature. Electronic copies of these macros may be downloaded from the Psychonomic Society's Web archive at www.psychonomic.org/archive/.

Reproducibility of the exponential rise technique of CO(2) rebreathing for measuring P(v)CO(2) and C(v)CO(2 )to non-invasively estimate cardiac output during incremental, maximal treadmill exercise.

PubMed

Cade, W Todd; Nabar, Sharmila R; Keyser, Randall E

2004-05-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the reproducibility of the indirect Fick method for the measurement of mixed venous carbon dioxide partial pressure (P(v)CO(2)) and venous carbon dioxide content (C(v)CO(2)) for estimation of cardiac output (Q(c)), using the exponential rise method of carbon dioxide rebreathing, during non-steady-state treadmill exercise. Ten healthy participants (eight female and two male) performed three incremental, maximal exercise treadmill tests to exhaustion within 1 week. Non-invasive Q(c) measurements were evaluated at rest, during each 3-min stage, and at peak exercise, across three identical treadmill tests, using the exponential rise technique for measuring mixed venous PCO(2) and CCO(2) and estimating venous-arterio carbon dioxide content difference (C(v-a)CO(2)). Measurements were divided into measured or estimated variables [heart rate (HR), oxygen consumption (VO(2)), volume of expired carbon dioxide (VCO(2)), end-tidal carbon dioxide (P(ET)CO(2)), arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure (P(a)CO(2)), venous carbon dioxide partial pressure ( P(v)CO(2)), and C(v-a)CO(2)] and cardiorespiratory variables derived from the measured variables [Q(c), stroke volume (V(s)), and arteriovenous oxygen difference ( C(a-v)O(2))]. In general, the derived cardiorespiratory variables demonstrated acceptable (R=0.61) to high (R>0.80) reproducibility, especially at higher intensities and peak exercise. Measured variables, excluding P(a)CO(2) and C(v-a)CO(2), also demonstrated acceptable (R=0.6 to 0.79) to high reliability. The current study demonstrated acceptable to high reproducibility of the exponential rise indirect Fick method in measurement of mixed venous PCO(2) and CCO(2) for estimation of Q(c) during incremental treadmill exercise testing, especially at high-intensity and peak exercise.

Problems in estimating self-supplied industrial water use by indirect methods, the California example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burt, R.J.

1983-01-01

Consumptive fresh-water use by industry in California is estimated at about 230 million gallons per day, or about one-half of one percent of agricultural withdrawals in the State , and only about 1 percent of agricultural consumptive use. Therefore, a significant State-wide realignment of the total water resources could not be made by industrial conservation measures. Nevertheless, considerable latitude for water conservation exists in industry -- fresh water consumed by self-supplied industry amounts to about 40 percent of its withdrawals in California, and only about 10 to 15 percent nationally (not including power-plant use). Furthermore, where firms withdraw and consume less water there is more for others nearby to use. The main question in attempting to estimate self-supplied industrial water use in California by indirect methods was whether accurate estimates of industrial water use could be made from data on surrogates such as production and employment. The answer is apparently not. A fundamental problem was that different data bases produced variable coefficients of water use for similar industries. Much of the potential for error appeared to lie in the water data bases rather than the production or employment data. The apparent reasons are that water-use data are based on responses to questionnaires, which are prone to errors in reporting, and because the data may be aggregated inappropriately for this kind of correlation. Industries within an apparently similar category commonly use different amounts of water, both because of differences in the product and because of differences in production processes even where the end-product is similar. (USGS)

A Bayesian latent class model to estimate the accuracy of pregnancy diagnosis by transrectal ultrasonography and laboratory detection of pregnancy-associated glycoproteins in dairy cows.

PubMed

Fosgate, G T; Motimele, B; Ganswindt, A; Irons, P C

2017-09-15

Accurate diagnosis of pregnancy is an essential component of an effective reproductive management plan for dairy cattle. Indirect methods of pregnancy detection can be performed soon after breeding and offer an advantage over traditional direct methods in not requiring an experienced veterinarian and having potential for automation. The objective of this study was to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of pregnancy-associated glycoprotein (PAG) detection ELISA and transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) in dairy cows of South Africa using a Bayesian latent class approach. Commercial dairy cattle from the five important dairy regions in South Africa were enrolled in a short-term prospective cohort study. Cattle were examined at 28-35days after artificial insemination (AI) and then followed up 14days later. At both sampling times, TRUS was performed to detect pregnancy and commercially available PAG detection ELISAs were performed on collected serum and milk. A total of 1236 cows were sampled and 1006 had complete test information for use in the Bayesian latent class model. The estimated sensitivity (95% probability interval) and specificity for PAG detection serum ELISA were 99.4% (98.5, 99.9) and 97.4% (94.7, 99.2), respectively. The estimated sensitivity and specificity for PAG detection milk ELISA were 99.2% (98.2, 99.8) and 93.4% (89.7, 96.1), respectively. Sensitivity of veterinarian performed TRUS at 28-35days post-AI varied between 77.8% and 90.5% and specificity varied between 94.7% and 99.8%. In summary, indirect detection of pregnancy using PAG ELISA is an accurate method for use in dairy cattle. The method is descriptively more sensitive than veterinarian-performed TRUS and therefore could be an economically viable addition to a reproductive management plan. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Importance and challenges of measuring intrinsic foot muscle strength

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Intrinsic foot muscle weakness has been implicated in a range of foot deformities and disorders. However, to establish a relationship between intrinsic muscle weakness and foot pathology, an objective measure of intrinsic muscle strength is needed. The aim of this review was to provide an overview of the anatomy and role of intrinsic foot muscles, implications of intrinsic weakness and evaluate the different methods used to measure intrinsic foot muscle strength. Method Literature was sourced from database searches of MEDLINE, PubMed, SCOPUS, Cochrane Library, PEDro and CINAHL up to June 2012. Results There is no widely accepted method of measuring intrinsic foot muscle strength. Methods to estimate toe flexor muscle strength include the paper grip test, plantar pressure, toe dynamometry, and the intrinsic positive test. Hand-held dynamometry has excellent interrater and intrarater reliability and limits toe curling, which is an action hypothesised to activate extrinsic toe flexor muscles. However, it is unclear whether any method can actually isolate intrinsic muscle strength. Also most methods measure only toe flexor strength and other actions such as toe extension and abduction have not been adequately assessed. Indirect methods to investigate intrinsic muscle structure and performance include CT, ultrasonography, MRI, EMG, and muscle biopsy. Indirect methods often discriminate between intrinsic and extrinsic muscles, but lack the ability to measure muscle force. Conclusions There are many challenges to accurately measure intrinsic muscle strength in isolation. Most studies have measured toe flexor strength as a surrogate measure of intrinsic muscle strength. Hand-held dynamometry appears to be a promising method of estimating intrinsic muscle strength. However, the contribution of extrinsic muscles cannot be excluded from toe flexor strength measurement. Future research should clarify the relative contribution of intrinsic and extrinsic muscles during intrinsic foot muscle strength testing. PMID:23181771

Estimating the Economic Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis in Taiwan Using the National Health Insurance Database.

PubMed

Wang, Bruce C M; Hsu, Ping-Ning; Furnback, Wesley; Ney, John; Yang, Ya-Wen; Fang, Chi-Hui; Tang, Chao-Hsiun

2016-03-01

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune disease characterized by inflammation and destruction of the joints. This research aims to estimate the economic burden of RA in Taiwan. The National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), a claims-based dataset encompassing 99 % of Taiwan's population, was applied. We used a micro-costing approach for direct healthcare costs and indirect social costs by estimating the quantities and prices of cost categories. Direct costs included surgeries, hospitalizations, medical devices and materials, laboratory tests, and drugs. The costs and quantities of the direct economic burden were calculated based on 2011 data of NHIRD. We identified RA patients and a control cohort matched 1:4 on demographic and clinical covariates to calculate the incremental cost related to RA. Indirect costs were evaluated by missed work (absenteeism) and worker productivity (presenteeism). For the indirect burden, we estimated the rate of absenteeism and presenteeism from a patient survey. Costs were presented in US dollars (US$1 = 30 TWD). A total of 41,269 RA patients were included in the database with incremental total direct cost of US$86,413,971 and indirect cost of US$138,492,987. This resulted in an average incremental direct cost of US$2050 per RA patient. Within direct costs, the largest burdens were associated with drugs (US$73,028,944), laboratory tests (US$6,132,395), and hospitalizations (US$3,208,559). For indirect costs, absenteeism costs and presenteeism costs were US$16,059,681 and US$114,291,687, respectively. The economic burden of RA in Taiwan is driven by indirect healthcare costs, most notably presenteeism.

Estimating the Economic Burden of Rheumatoid Arthritis in Taiwan Using the National Health Insurance Database.

PubMed

Wang, Bruce C M; Hsu, Ping-Ning; Furnback, Wesley; Ney, John; Yang, Ya-Wen; Fang, Chi-Hui; Tang, Chao-Hsiun

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune disease characterized by inflammation and destruction of the joints. This research aims to estimate the economic burden of RA in Taiwan. The National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), a claims-based dataset encompassing 99 % of Taiwan's population, was applied. We used a micro-costing approach for direct healthcare costs and indirect social costs by estimating the quantities and prices of cost categories. Direct costs included surgeries, hospitalizations, medical devices and materials, laboratory tests, and drugs. The costs and quantities of the direct economic burden were calculated based on 2011 data of NHIRD. We identified RA patients and a control cohort matched 1:4 on demographic and clinical covariates to calculate the incremental cost related to RA. Indirect costs were evaluated by missed work (absenteeism) and worker productivity (presenteeism). For the indirect burden, we estimated the rate of absenteeism and presenteeism from a patient survey. Costs were presented in US dollars (US$1 = 30 TWD). A total of 41,269 RA patients were included in the database with incremental total direct cost of US$86,413,971 and indirect cost of US$138,492,987. This resulted in an average incremental direct cost of US$2050 per RA patient. Within direct costs, the largest burdens were associated with drugs (US$73,028,944), laboratory tests (US$6,132,395), and hospitalizations (US$3,208,559). For indirect costs, absenteeism costs and presenteeism costs were US$16,059,681 and US$114,291,687, respectively. The economic burden of RA in Taiwan is driven by indirect healthcare costs, most notably presenteeism.

Impact of density information on Rayleigh surface wave inversion results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Julian; Tsoflias, Georgios; Miller, Richard D.; Peterie, Shelby; Morton, Sarah; Xia, Jianghai

2016-12-01

We assessed the impact of density on the estimation of inverted shear-wave velocity (Vs) using the multi-channel analysis of surface waves (MASW) method. We considered the forward modeling theory, evaluated model sensitivity, and tested the effect of density information on the inversion of seismic data acquired in the Arctic. Theoretical review, numerical modeling and inversion of modeled and real data indicated that the density ratios between layers, not the actual density values, impact the determination of surface-wave phase velocities. Application on real data compared surface-wave inversion results using: a) constant density, the most common approach in practice, b) indirect density estimates derived from refraction compressional-wave velocity observations, and c) from direct density measurements in a borehole. The use of indirect density estimates reduced the final shear-wave velocity (Vs) results typically by 6-7% and the use of densities from a borehole reduced the final Vs estimates by 10-11% compared to those from assumed constant density. In addition to the improved absolute Vs accuracy, the resulting overall Vs changes were unevenly distributed laterally when viewed on a 2-D section leading to an overall Vs model structure that was more representative of the subsurface environment. It was observed that the use of constant density instead of increasing density with depth not only can lead to Vs overestimation but it can also create inaccurate model structures, such as a low-velocity layer. Thus, optimal Vs estimations can be best achieved using field estimates of subsurface density ratios.

Accelerated DNA Methylation Age: Associations with PTSD and Neural Integrity

PubMed Central

Wolf, Erika J.; Logue, Mark W.; Hayes, Jasmeet P.; Sadeh, Naomi; Schichman, Steven A.; Stone, Annjanette; Salat, David H.; Milberg, William; McGlinchey, Regina; Miller, Mark W.

2015-01-01

Background Accumulating evidence suggests that post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) may accelerate cellular aging and lead to premature morbidity and neurocognitive decline. Methods This study evaluated associations between PTSD and DNA methylation (DNAm) age using recently developed algorithms of cellular age by Horvath (2013) and Hannum et al. (2013). These estimates reflect accelerated aging when they exceed chronological age. We also examined if accelerated cellular age manifested in degraded neural integrity, indexed via diffusion tensor imaging. Results Among 281 male and female veterans of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, DNAm age was strongly related to chronological age (rs ~.88). Lifetime PTSD severity was associated with Hannum DNAm age estimates residualized for chronological age (β = .13, p= .032). Advanced DNAm age was associated with reduced integrity in the genu of the corpus callosum (β = −.17, p= .009) and indirectly linked to poorer working memory performance via this region (indirect β = − .05, p= .029). Horvath DNAm age estimates were not associated with PTSD or neural integrity. Conclusions Results provide novel support for PTSD-related accelerated aging in DNAm and extend the evidence base of known DNAm age correlates to the domains of neural integrity and cognition. PMID:26447678

[Analysis of energy expenditure in adults with cystic fibrosis: comparison of indirect calorimetry and prediction equations].

PubMed

Fuster, Casilda Olveira; Fuster, Gabriel Olveira; Galindo, Antonio Dorado; Galo, Alicia Padilla; Verdugo, Julio Merino; Lozano, Francisco Miralles

2007-07-01

Undernutrition, which implies an imbalance between energy intake and energy requirements, is common in patients with cystic fibrosis. The aim of this study was to compare resting energy expenditure determined by indirect calorimetry with that obtained with commonly used predictive equations in adults with cystic fibrosis and to assess the influence of clinical variables on the values obtained. We studied 21 patients with clinically stable cystic fibrosis, obtaining data on anthropometric variables, hand grip dynamometry, electrical bioimpedance, and resting energy expenditure by indirect calorimetry. We used the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Bland-Altman method to assess agreement between the values obtained for resting energy expenditure measured by indirect calorimetry and those obtained with the World Health Organization (WHO) and Harris-Benedict prediction equations. The prediction equations underestimated resting energy expenditure in more than 90% of cases. The agreement between the value obtained by indirect calorimetry and that calculated with the prediction equations was poor (ICC for comparisons with the WHO and Harris-Benedict equations, 0.47 and 0.41, respectively). Bland-Altman analysis revealed a variable bias between the results of indirect calorimetry and those obtained with prediction equations, irrespective of the resting energy expenditure. The difference between the values measured by indirect calorimetry and those obtained with the WHO equation was significantly larger in patients homozygous for the DeltaF508 mutation and in those with exocrine pancreatic insufficiency. The WHO and Harris-Benedict prediction equations underestimate resting energy expenditure in adults with cystic fibrosis. There is poor agreement between the values for resting energy expenditure determined by indirect calorimetry and those estimated with prediction equations. Underestimation was greater in patients with exocrine pancreatic insufficiency and patients who were homozygous for DeltaF508.

Monitoring baseline suspended sediment in forested basins: the effects of sampling on suspended sediment rating curves

Treesearch

Robert B. Thomas

1988-01-01

Abstract - Rating curves are widely used for directly assessing changes in the suspended sediment delivery process and indirectly for estimating total yields. Four sampling methods were simulated-over a 31-day record of suspended sediment from the North Fork of the Mad River near Korbel, California. The position and size of the four groups of plotted slope/intercept...

[A method of measuring presampled modulation transfer function using a rationalized approximation of geometrical edge slope].

PubMed

Honda, Michitaka

2014-04-01

Several improvements were implemented in the edge method of presampled modulation transfer function measurements (MTFs). The estimation technique for edge angle was newly developed by applying an algorithm for principal components analysis. The error in the estimation was statistically confirmed to be less than 0.01 even in the presence of quantum noise. Secondly, the geometrical edge slope was approximated using a rationalized number, making it possible to obtain an oversampled edge response function (ESF) with equal intervals. Thirdly, the final MTFs were estimated using the average of multiple MTFs calculated for local areas. This averaging operation eliminates the errors caused by the rationalized approximation. Computer-simulated images were used to evaluate the accuracy of our method. The relative error between the estimated MTF and the theoretical MTF at the Nyquist frequency was less than 0.5% when the MTF was expressed as a sinc function. For MTFs representing an indirect detector and phase-contrast detector, good agreement was also observed for the estimated MTFs for each. The high accuracy of the MTF estimation was also confirmed, even for edge angles of around 10 degrees, which suggests the potential for simplification of the measurement conditions. The proposed method could be incorporated into an automated measurement technique using a software application.

Performance of Predictive Equations Specifically Developed to Estimate Resting Energy Expenditure in Ventilated Critically Ill Children.

PubMed

Jotterand Chaparro, Corinne; Taffé, Patrick; Moullet, Clémence; Laure Depeyre, Jocelyne; Longchamp, David; Perez, Marie-Hélène; Cotting, Jacques

2017-05-01

To determine, based on indirect calorimetry measurements, the biases of predictive equations specifically developed recently for estimating resting energy expenditure (REE) in ventilated critically ill children, or developed for healthy populations but used in critically ill children. A secondary analysis study was performed using our data on REE measured in a previous prospective study on protein and energy needs in pediatric intensive care unit. We included 75 ventilated critically ill children (median age, 21 months) in whom 407 indirect calorimetry measurements were performed. Fifteen predictive equations were used to estimate REE: the equations of White, Meyer, Mehta, Schofield, Henry, the World Health Organization, Fleisch, and Harris-Benedict and the tables of Talbot. Their differential and proportional biases (with 95% CIs) were computed and the bias plotted in graphs. The Bland-Altman method was also used. Most equations underestimated and overestimated REE between 200 and 1000 kcal/day. The equations of Mehta, Schofield, and Henry and the tables of Talbot had a bias ≤10%, but the 95% CI was large and contained values by far beyond ±10% for low REE values. Other specific equations for critically ill children had even wider biases. In ventilated critically ill children, none of the predictive equations tested met the performance criteria for the entire range of REE between 200 and 1000 kcal/day. Even the equations with the smallest bias may entail a risk of underfeeding or overfeeding, especially in the youngest children. Indirect calorimetry measurement must be preferred. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Indirect cost of maternal deaths in the WHO African Region in 2010.

PubMed

Kirigia, Joses Muthuri; Mwabu, Germano Mwige; Orem, Juliet Nabyonga; Muthuri, Rosenabi Deborah Karimi

2014-08-31

An estimated 147,741 maternal deaths occurred in 2010 in 45 of the 47 countries in the African Region of the World Health Organization (WHO). The objective of this study was to estimate the indirect cost of maternal deaths in the Region to provide data for use in advocacy for increased domestic and external investment in multisectoral policy interventions to curb maternal mortality. This study used the cost-of-illness method to estimate the indirect cost of maternal mortality, i.e. the loss in non-health gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to maternal deaths. Estimates on maternal mortality for 2010 from Trends in maternal mortality: 1990 to 2010 published by WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA and the World Bank were used in these calculations. Values for future non-health GDP lost were converted into their present values by applying a 3% discount rate. One-way sensitivity analysis at 5% and 10% discount rates assessed the impact on non-health GDP loss. Indirect cost analysis was undertaken for the countries, categorized under three income groups. Group 1 consisted of nine high and upper middle income countries, Group 2 of 12 lower middle income countries, and Group 3 of 26 low income countries. Estimates for Seychelles in Group 1 and South Sudan in Group 3 were not provided in the source used. The 147,741 maternal deaths that occurred in 45 countries in the African Region in 2010 resulted in a total non-health GDP loss of Int$ 4.5 billion (PPP). About 24.5% of the loss was in Group 1 countries, 44.9% in Group 2 countries and 30.6% in Group 3 countries. This translated into losses in non-health GDP of Int$ 139,219, Int$ 35,440 and Int$ 16,397 per maternal death, respectively, for the three groups. Using discount rates of 5% and 10% reduced the total non-health GDP loss by 19.1% and 47.7%, respectively. Maternal mortality is responsible for a noteworthy level of non-health GDP loss among the countries in the African Region. There is urgent need, therefore, to increase domestic and external investment to scale up coverage of existing cost-effective, multisectoral women's health interventions to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality.

Evaluation of indirect impedance for measuring microbial growth in complex food matrices.

PubMed

Johnson, N; Chang, Z; Bravo Almeida, C; Michel, M; Iversen, C; Callanan, M

2014-09-01

The suitability of indirect impedance to accurately measure microbial growth in real food matrices was investigated. A variety of semi-solid and liquid food products were inoculated with Bacillus cereus, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, Lactobacillus plantarum, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli, Salmonella enteriditis, Candida tropicalis or Zygosaccharomyces rouxii and CO2 production was monitored using a conductimetric (Don Whitely R.A.B.I.T.) system. The majority (80%) of food and microbe combinations produced a detectable growth signal. The linearity of conductance responses in selected food products was investigated and a good correlation (R(2) ≥ 0.84) was observed between inoculum levels and times to detection. Specific growth rate estimations from the data were sufficiently accurate for predictive modeling in some cases. This initial evaluation of the suitability of indirect impedance to generate microbial growth data in complex food matrices indicates significant potential for the technology as an alternative to plating methods. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lifetime indirect cost of childhood overweight and obesity: A decision analytic model.

PubMed

Sonntag, Diana; Ali, Shehzad; De Bock, Freia

2016-01-01

To estimate the indirect lifetime cost of childhood overweight and obesity for Germany. The lifetime cohort model consisted of two parts: (a) Model I used data from the German Interview and Examination Survey for Children on prevalence of BMI categories during childhood to evaluate BMI trajectories before the age of 18; and (b) Model II estimated lifetime excess indirect cost based on the history of childhood BMI. Indirect costs were defined as the opportunity cost of lost productivity due to mortality and morbidity and were identified through a systematic literature review. Our analysis showed that the majority of children with overweight and obesity remained in the same BMI category during their adult life, resulting in significant indirect lifetime costs. We estimated that overweight and obesity during childhood resulted in an excess lifetime cost per person of €4,209 (men) and €2,445 (women). For the current prevalent German population, the excess lifetime cost was €145 billion. Our study showed that childhood obesity results in significant economic burden on the society. Therefore, cost-effective strategies targeted at reducing the prevalence of obesity during the early years of life can significantly reduce both healthcare and nonhealthcare costs over the lifetime. © 2015 The Obesity Society.

The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

PubMed

Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

2014-05-01

The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

Using indirect covariance spectra to identify artifact responses in unsymmetrical indirect covariance calculated spectra.

PubMed

Martin, Gary E; Hilton, Bruce D; Blinov, Kirill A; Williams, Antony J

2008-02-01

Several groups of authors have reported studies in the areas of indirect and unsymmetrical indirect covariance NMR processing methods. Efforts have recently focused on the use of unsymmetrical indirect covariance processing methods to combine various discrete two-dimensional NMR spectra to afford the equivalent of the much less sensitive hyphenated 2D NMR experiments, for example indirect covariance (icv)-heteronuclear single quantum coherence (HSQC)-COSY and icv-HSQC-nuclear Overhauser effect spectroscopy (NOESY). Alternatively, unsymmetrical indirect covariance processing methods can be used to combine multiple heteronuclear 2D spectra to afford icv-13C-15N HSQC-HMBC correlation spectra. We now report the use of responses contained in indirect covariance processed HSQC spectra as a means for the identification of artifacts in both indirect covariance and unsymmetrical indirect covariance processed 2D NMR spectra. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Expanding Local Cancer Clinical Trial Options: Analysis of the Economic Impact of the Midwest Cancer Alliance in Kansas

PubMed Central

Gafford, J. Atlee; Krebill, Hope; Lai, Sue Min; Christiadi; Doolittle, Gary C.

2017-01-01

Purpose Patients benefit from receiving cancer treatment closer to home when possible and at high-volume regional centers when specialized care is required. The purpose of this analysis was to estimate the economic impact of retaining more patients in-state for cancer clinical trials and care, which might offset some of the costs of establishing broader cancer trial and treatment networks. Method Kansas Cancer Registry data were used to estimate the number of patients retained in-state for cancer care following the expansion of local cancer clinical trial options through the Midwest Cancer Alliance based at the University of Kansas Medical Center. The 2014 economic impact of this enhanced local clinical trial network was estimated in four parts: Medical spending was estimated on the basis of National Cancer Institute cost-of-care estimates. Household travel cost savings were estimated as the difference between in-state and out-of-state travel costs. Trial-related grant income was calculated from administrative records. Indirect and induced economic benefits to the state were estimated using an economic impact model. Results The authors estimated that the enhanced local cancer clinical trial network resulted in approximately $6.9 million in additional economic activity in the state in 2014, or $362,000 per patient retained in-state. This estimate includes $3.6 million in direct spending and $3.3 million in indirect economic activity. The enhanced trial network also resulted in 45 additional jobs. Conclusions Retaining patients in-state for cancer care and clinical trial participation allows patients to remain closer to home for care and enhances the state economy. PMID:28253204

The economic costs of alcohol consumption in Thailand, 2006

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background There is evidence that the adverse consequences of alcohol impose a substantial economic burden on societies worldwide. Given the lack of generalizability of study results across different settings, many attempts have been made to estimate the economic costs of alcohol for various settings; however, these have mostly been confined to industrialized countries. To our knowledge, there are a very limited number of well-designed studies which estimate the economic costs of alcohol consumption in developing countries, including Thailand. Therefore, this study aims to estimate these economic costs, in Thailand, 2006. Methods This is a prevalence-based, cost-of-illness study. The estimated costs in this study included both direct and indirect costs. Direct costs included health care costs, costs of law enforcement, and costs of property damage due to road-traffic accidents. Indirect costs included costs of productivity loss due to premature mortality, and costs of reduced productivity due to absenteeism and presenteeism (reduced on-the-job productivity). Results The total economic cost of alcohol consumption in Thailand in 2006 was estimated at 156,105.4 million baht (9,627 million US$ PPP) or about 1.99% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Indirect costs outweigh direct costs, representing 96% of the total cost. The largest cost attributable to alcohol consumption is that of productivity loss due to premature mortality (104,128 million baht/6,422 million US$ PPP), followed by cost of productivity loss due to reduced productivity (45,464.6 million baht/2,804 million US$ PPP), health care cost (5,491.2 million baht/339 million US$ PPP), cost of property damage as a result of road traffic accidents (779.4 million baht/48 million US$ PPP), and cost of law enforcement (242.4 million baht/15 million US$ PPP), respectively. The results from the sensitivity analysis revealed that the cost ranges from 115,160.4 million baht to 214,053.0 million baht (7,102.1 - 13,201 million US$ PPP) depending on the methods and assumptions employed. Conclusions Alcohol imposes a substantial economic burden on Thai society, and according to these findings, the Thai government needs to pay significantly more attention to implementing more effective alcohol policies/interventions in order to reduce the negative consequences associated with alcohol. PMID:20534112

Defining and estimating causal direct and indirect effects when setting the mediator to specific values is not feasible

PubMed Central

Lok, Judith J.

2016-01-01

Natural direct and indirect effects decompose the effect of a treatment into the part that is mediated by a covariate (the mediator) and the part that is not. Their definitions rely on the concept of outcomes under treatment with the mediator “set” to its value without treatment. Typically, the mechanism through which the mediator is set to this value is left unspecified, and in many applications it may be challenging to fix the mediator to particular values for each unit or patient. Moreover, how one sets the mediator may affect the distribution of the outcome. This article introduces “organic” direct and indirect effects, which can be defined and estimated without relying on setting the mediator to specific values. Organic direct and indirect effects can be applied for example to estimate how much of the effect of some treatments for HIV/AIDS on mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection is mediated by the effect of the treatment on the HIV viral load in the blood of the mother. PMID:27229743

Regression and direct methods do not give different estimates of digestible and metabolizable energy values of barley, sorghum, and wheat for pigs.

PubMed

Bolarinwa, O A; Adeola, O

2016-02-01

Direct or indirect methods can be used to determine the DE and ME of feed ingredients for pigs. In situations when only the indirect approach is suitable, the regression method presents a robust indirect approach. Three experiments were conducted to compare the direct and regression methods for determining the DE and ME values of barley, sorghum, and wheat for pigs. In each experiment, 24 barrows with an average initial BW of 31, 32, and 33 kg were assigned to 4 diets in a randomized complete block design. The 4 diets consisted of 969 g barley, sorghum, or wheat/kg plus minerals and vitamins for the direct method; a corn-soybean meal reference diet (RD); the RD + 300 g barley, sorghum, or wheat/kg; and the RD + 600 g barley, sorghum, or wheat/kg. The 3 corn-soybean meal diets were used for the regression method. Each diet was fed to 6 barrows in individual metabolism crates for a 5-d acclimation followed by a 5-d period of total but separate collection of feces and urine in each experiment. Graded substitution of barley or wheat, but not sorghum, into the RD linearly reduced ( < 0.05) dietary DE and ME. The direct method-derived DE and ME for barley were 3,669 and 3,593 kcal/kg DM, respectively. The regressions of barley contribution to DE and ME in kilocalories against the quantity of barley DMI in kilograms generated 3,746 kcal DE/kg DM and 3,647 kcal ME/kg DM. The DE and ME for sorghum by the direct method were 4,097 and 4,042 kcal/kg DM, respectively; the corresponding regression-derived estimates were 4,145 and 4,066 kcal/kg DM. Using the direct method, energy values for wheat were 3,953 kcal DE/kg DM and 3,889 kcal ME/kg DM. The regressions of wheat contribution to DE and ME in kilocalories against the quantity of wheat DMI in kilograms generated 3,960 kcal DE/kg DM and 3,874 kcal ME/kg DM. The DE and ME of barley using the direct method were not different (0.3 < < 0.4) from those obtained using the regression method (3,669 vs. 3,746 and 3,593 vs. 3,647 kcal/kg DM, respectively). The direct method-derived DE and ME of sorghum were not different (0.5 < < 0.7) from those obtained using the regression method (4,097 vs. 4,145 and 4,042 vs. 4,066 kcal/kg DM, respectively). The direct method- and regression method-derived DE (3,953 and 3,960 kcal/kg DM, respectively) and ME (3,889 and 3,874 kcal/kg DM, respectively) of wheat were not different (0.8 < < 0.9). Results of these 3 experiments suggest that regression and direct methods do not give different estimates of DE and ME in barley, sorghum, and wheat for pigs.

Estimating adult sex ratios in nature.

PubMed

Ancona, Sergio; Dénes, Francisco V; Krüger, Oliver; Székely, Tamás; Beissinger, Steven R

2017-09-19

Adult sex ratio (ASR, the proportion of males in the adult population) is a central concept in population and evolutionary biology, and is also emerging as a major factor influencing mate choice, pair bonding and parental cooperation in both human and non-human societies. However, estimating ASR is fraught with difficulties stemming from the effects of spatial and temporal variation in the numbers of males and females, and detection/capture probabilities that differ between the sexes. Here, we critically evaluate methods for estimating ASR in wild animal populations, reviewing how recent statistical advances can be applied to handle some of these challenges. We review methods that directly account for detection differences between the sexes using counts of unmarked individuals (observed, trapped or killed) and counts of marked individuals using mark-recapture models. We review a third class of methods that do not directly sample the number of males and females, but instead estimate the sex ratio indirectly using relationships that emerge from demographic measures, such as survival, age structure, reproduction and assumed dynamics. We recommend that detection-based methods be used for estimating ASR in most situations, and point out that studies are needed that compare different ASR estimation methods and control for sex differences in dispersal.This article is part of the themed issue 'Adult sex ratios and reproductive decisions: a critical re-examination of sex differences in human and animal societies'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Energy expenditure estimation during daily military routine with body-fixed sensors.

PubMed

Wyss, Thomas; Mäder, Urs

2011-05-01

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate an algorithm for estimating energy expenditure during the daily military routine on the basis of data collected using body-fixed sensors. First, 8 volunteers completed isolated physical activities according to an established protocol, and the resulting data were used to develop activity-class-specific multiple linear regressions for physical activity energy expenditure on the basis of hip acceleration, heart rate, and body mass as independent variables. Second, the validity of these linear regressions was tested during the daily military routine using indirect calorimetry (n = 12). Volunteers' mean estimated energy expenditure did not significantly differ from the energy expenditure measured with indirect calorimetry (p = 0.898, 95% confidence interval = -1.97 to 1.75 kJ/min). We conclude that the developed activity-class-specific multiple linear regressions applied to the acceleration and heart rate data allow estimation of energy expenditure in 1-minute intervals during daily military routine, with accuracy equal to indirect calorimetry.

Cinnamon gulch revisited: Another look at separating natural and mining-impacted contributions to instream metal load

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runkel, Robert L.; Verplanck, Philip; Kimball, Briant; Walton-Day, Katie

2018-01-01

Baseline, premining data for streams draining abandoned mine lands is virtually non existent, and indirect methods for estimating premining conditions are needed to establish realistic, cost effective cleanup goals. One such indirect method is the proximal analog approach, in which premining conditions are estimated using data from nearby mineralized areas that are unaffected by mining. In this paper, we combine the proximal analog approach with a quantitative mass balance framework using data from a spatially-detailed synoptic sampling campaign. The combined approach is applied to Cinnamon Gulch, a headwater stream with numerous draining adits. Synoptic sampling results indicate that three of the top five metal sources are affected by mining activities, and stream segments draining these sources account for a large percentage of overall metal loading within the study reach. These initial calculations overestimate the effects of mining, as the affected stream segments were likely acidic and metal rich prior to mining. Premining loads and concentrations were therefore determined through a replacement approach in which the chemistry of each mining-affected stream segment is revised based on proximal analog concentrations. The revised loading profiles indicate that 15–17% of the Al, Cd, Cu, Mn, Ni, and Zn loads are attributable to mining, whereas the mining contribution for Pb is 40%. Premining concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Mn, and Zn are estimated to be in excess of aquatic life standards over the length of the study reach.

Costs of illness of multiple sclerosis in Sweden: a population-based register study of people of working age.

PubMed

Gyllensten, Hanna; Wiberg, Michael; Alexanderson, Kristina; Norlund, Anders; Friberg, Emilie; Hillert, Jan; Ernstsson, Olivia; Tinghög, Petter

2018-04-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) causes work disability and healthcare resource use, but little is known about the distribution of the associated costs to society. We estimated the cost of illness (COI) of working-aged individuals with MS, from the societal perspective, overall and in different groups. A population-based study was conducted, using data linked from several nationwide registers, on 14,077 individuals with MS, aged 20-64 years and living in Sweden. Prevalence-based direct and indirect costs in 2010 were calculated, including costs for prescription drug use, specialized healthcare, sick leave, and disability pension. The estimated COI of all the MS patients were SEK 3950 million, of which 75% were indirect costs. MS was the main diagnosis for resource use, causing 38% of healthcare costs and 67% of indirect costs. The distribution of costs was skewed, in which less than 25% of the patients accounted for half the total COI. Indirect costs contributed to approximately 75% of the estimated overall COI of MS patients of working age in Sweden. MS was the main diagnosis for more than half of the estimated COI in this patient group. Further studies are needed to gain knowledge on development of costs over time during the MS disease course.

The health-related social costs of alcohol in Belgium.

PubMed

Verhaeghe, Nick; Lievens, Delfine; Annemans, Lieven; Vander Laenen, Freya; Putman, Koen

2017-12-16

Alcohol is associated with adverse health effects causing a considerable economic impact to society. A reliable estimate of this economic impact for Belgium is lacking. This is the aim of the study. A prevalence-based approach estimating the direct, indirect and intangible costs for the year 2012 was used. Attributional fractions for a series of health effects were derived from literature. The human capital approach was used to estimate indirect costs, while the concept of disability-adjusted life years was used to estimate intangible costs. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty around cost estimates and to evaluate the impact of alternative modelling assumptions. In 2012, total alcohol-attributable direct costs were estimated at €906.1 million, of which the majority were due to hospitalization (€743.7 million, 82%). The indirect costs amounted to €642.6 million, of which 62% was caused by premature mortality. Alcohol was responsible for 157,500 disability-adjusted life years representing €6.3 billion intangible costs. Despite a number of limitations intrinsic to this kind of research, the study can be considered as the most comprehensive analysis thus far of the health-related social costs of alcohol in Belgium.

A Spatio-Temporally Explicit Random Encounter Model for Large-Scale Population Surveys

PubMed Central

Jousimo, Jussi; Ovaskainen, Otso

2016-01-01

Random encounter models can be used to estimate population abundance from indirect data collected by non-invasive sampling methods, such as track counts or camera-trap data. The classical Formozov–Malyshev–Pereleshin (FMP) estimator converts track counts into an estimate of mean population density, assuming that data on the daily movement distances of the animals are available. We utilize generalized linear models with spatio-temporal error structures to extend the FMP estimator into a flexible Bayesian modelling approach that estimates not only total population size, but also spatio-temporal variation in population density. We also introduce a weighting scheme to estimate density on habitats that are not covered by survey transects, assuming that movement data on a subset of individuals is available. We test the performance of spatio-temporal and temporal approaches by a simulation study mimicking the Finnish winter track count survey. The results illustrate how the spatio-temporal modelling approach is able to borrow information from observations made on neighboring locations and times when estimating population density, and that spatio-temporal and temporal smoothing models can provide improved estimates of total population size compared to the FMP method. PMID:27611683

Stability basin estimates fall risk from observed kinematics, demonstrated on the Sit-to-Stand task.

PubMed

Shia, Victor; Moore, Talia Yuki; Holmes, Patrick; Bajcsy, Ruzena; Vasudevan, Ram

2018-04-27

The ability to quantitatively measure stability is essential to ensuring the safety of locomoting systems. While the response to perturbation directly reflects the stability of a motion, this experimental method puts human subjects at risk. Unfortunately, existing indirect methods for estimating stability from unperturbed motion have been shown to have limited predictive power. This paper leverages recent advances in dynamical systems theory to accurately estimate the stability of human motion without requiring perturbation. This approach relies on kinematic observations of a nominal Sit-to-Stand motion to construct an individual-specific dynamic model, input bounds, and feedback control that are then used to compute the set of perturbations from which the model can recover. This set, referred to as the stability basin, was computed for 14 individuals, and was able to successfully differentiate between less and more stable Sit-to-Stand strategies for each individual with greater accuracy than existing methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tolerance to bovine clinical mastitis: Total, direct, and indirect milk losses.

PubMed

Detilleux, J

2018-04-01

The objectives of this paper were to estimate direct and indirect milk losses associated with mastitis. Indirect losses, linked to indirect tolerance, are mediated by the increase in milk somatic cell count (SCC) in response to bacterial infection. Direct losses, linked to weak direct tolerance, are not mediated by the increase in SCC. So far, studies have evaluated milk loss associated with clinical mastitis without considering both components, which may lead to biased estimates of their sum; that is, the total loss in milk. A total of 43,903 test-day records on milk and SCC from 3,716 cows and 5,858 lactations were analyzed with mediation mixed models and health trajectories to estimate the amount of direct, indirect, and total milk losses after adjustment for known and potentially unmeasured (sensitivity analyses) confounding factors. Estimates were formalized under the counterfactual causal theory of causation. In this study, milk losses were mostly mediated by an increase in SCC. They were highest in the first month of lactation, when SCC were highest. Milk losses were estimated at 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1 kg/d in first, second, and third and greater parity, respectively. Two phases described how changes in milk were associated with changes in SCC: on average, one occurred before and one after the day preceding the clinical diagnosis. In both phases, changes in milk were estimated at 1 mg/d per 10 3 cells/mL. After adjusting for known confounders, cow effect accounted for 20.7 and 64.2% of the variation in milk in the first and second phases, respectively. This suggests that deviations from the resilient path were highest during the second phase of inflammation and that selection for cows more tolerant to mastitis is feasible. As discussed herein, epigenetic regulation of macrophage polarization may contribute to the variation in milk observed in the second phase. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence and Clinical Trials.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, Steven N.

1989-11-01

This dissertation explores the use of a mathematical measure of statistical evidence, the log likelihood ratio, in clinical trials. The methods and thinking behind the use of an evidential measure are contrasted with traditional methods of analyzing data, which depend primarily on a p-value as an estimate of the statistical strength of an observed data pattern. It is contended that neither the behavioral dictates of Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing methods, nor the coherency dictates of Bayesian methods are realistic models on which to base inference. The use of the likelihood alone is applied to four aspects of trial design or conduct: the calculation of sample size, the monitoring of data, testing for the equivalence of two treatments, and meta-analysis--the combining of results from different trials. Finally, a more general model of statistical inference, using belief functions, is used to see if it is possible to separate the assessment of evidence from our background knowledge. It is shown that traditional and Bayesian methods can be modeled as two ends of a continuum of structured background knowledge, methods which summarize evidence at the point of maximum likelihood assuming no structure, and Bayesian methods assuming complete knowledge. Both schools are seen to be missing a concept of ignorance- -uncommitted belief. This concept provides the key to understanding the problem of sampling to a foregone conclusion and the role of frequency properties in statistical inference. The conclusion is that statistical evidence cannot be defined independently of background knowledge, and that frequency properties of an estimator are an indirect measure of uncommitted belief. Several likelihood summaries need to be used in clinical trials, with the quantitative disparity between summaries being an indirect measure of our ignorance. This conclusion is linked with parallel ideas in the philosophy of science and cognitive psychology.

Economic Costs Attributable to Smoking in China: Update and an 8-year Comparison, 2000–2008

PubMed Central

Yang, Lian; Sung, Hai-Yen; Mao, Zhengzhong; Hu, Teh-wei; Rao, Keqin

2013-01-01

Objective To estimate the health-related economic costs attributable to smoking in China for persons aged 35 and older in 2003 and in 2008 and to compare these costs with the respective results from 2000. Methods A prevalence-based, disease-specific approach was used to estimate smoking-attributable direct and indirect economic costs. The primary data source was the 2003 and 2008 China National Health Services Survey, which contains individual participant’s smoking status, healthcare utilization, and expenditures. Results The total economic cost of smoking in China amounted to $17.1 billion in 2003 and $28.9 billion in 2008 (both measured in 2008 constant US dollars). Direct smoking-attributable healthcare costs in 2003 and 2008 were $4.2 billion and $6.2 billion, respectively. Indirect economic costs in 2003 and 2008 were $12.9 billion and $22.7 billion, respectively. Compared to 2000, the direct costs of smoking rose by 72% in 2003 and 154% in 2008, while the indirect costs of smoking rose by 170% in 2003 and 376% in 2008. Conclusion The economic burden of cigarette smoking has increased substantially in China during the past decade and is expected to continue to increase as the national economy and the price of healthcare services grow. Stronger intervention measures against smoking should be taken without delay to reduce the health and financial losses caused by smoking. PMID:21339491

Burns, metabolism and nutritional requirements.

PubMed

Mendonça Machado, N; Gragnani, A; Masako Ferreira, L

2011-01-01

To review the nutritional evaluation in burned patient, considering the literature descriptions of nutritional evaluation and energy requirements of these patients. Thermal injury is the traumatic event with the highest metabolic response in critically ill patients. Various mathematical formulas have been developed to estimate nutritional requirements in burned patient. Indirect Calorimetry is the only method considered gold standard for measuring caloric expenditure. A survey of the literature and data was collected based on official data bases, LILACS, EMBASE and PubMed. The metabolic changes involved in hypermetabolism are designed to supply energy to support immune function, brain activity, wound healing, and preservation of body tissues. Body weight is considered the easiest indicator and perhaps the best to assess the nutritional status. The most common formulas utilized in these patients are the Curreri, Pennisi, Schofield, Ireton-Jones, Harris-Benedict and the ASPEN recommendations. For children is the Mayes and World Health Organization formula. The majority of mathematical formulas overestimate the nutritional needs. The regular use of Indirect Calorimetry supplies adequate nutritional support to the burn patient. The traditional nutritional evaluation considers anthropometry, biochemical markers and estimation of nutritional requirements. The weight provides a basis for decisions that are established in the clinical context. Classic parameters can be adapted to intensive care environment. The use of Indirect Calorimetry is crucial to ensure the safety of the nutritional support of burn patients and this should be widely encouraged.

Indirect boundary force measurements in beam-like structures using a derivative estimator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chesne, Simon

2014-12-01

This paper proposes a new method for the identification of boundary forces (shear force or bending moment) in a beam, based on displacement measurements. The problem is considered in terms of the determination of the boundary spatial derivatives of transverse displacements. By assuming the displacement fields to be approximated by Taylor expansions in a domain close to the boundaries, the spatial derivatives can be estimated using specific point-wise derivative estimators. This approach makes it possible to extract the derivatives using a weighted spatial integration of the displacement field. Following the theoretical description, numerical simulations made with exact and noisy data are used to determine the relationship between the size of the integration domain and the wavelength of the vibrations. The simulations also highlight the self-regularization of the technique. Experimental measurements demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed method.

Automobile Industry Retail Price Equivalent and Indirect Cost ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This report develops a modified multiplier, referred to as an indirect cost (IC) multiplier, which specifically evaluates the components of indirect costs that are likely to be affected by vehicle modifications associated with environmental regulation. A range of IC multipliers are developed that 1) account for differences in the technical complexity of required vehicle modifications and 2) adjust over time as new technologies become assimilated into the automotive production process. To develop an improved methodology for estimating indirect costs of new environmental regulations on automobile manufacturers.

Direct and indirect effects of body weight on adult wages.

PubMed

Han, Euna; Norton, Edward C; Powell, Lisa M

2011-12-01

Previous estimates of the association between body weight and wages in the literature have been conditional on education and occupation. In addition to the effect of current body weight status (body mass index (BMI) or obesity) on wages, this paper examines the indirect effect of body weight status in the late-teenage years on wages operating through education and occupation choice. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 data, for women, we find that a one-unit increase in BMI is directly associated with 1.83% lower hourly wages whereas the indirect BMI wage penalty is not statistically significant. Neither a direct nor an indirect BMI wage penalty is found for men. However, results based on clinical weight classification reveal that the indirect wage penalty occurs to a larger extent at the upper tail of the BMI distribution for both men and women via the pathways of education and occupation outcomes. Late-teen obesity is indirectly associated with 3.5% lower hourly wages for both women and men. These results are important because they imply that the total effect of obesity on wages is significantly larger than has been estimated in previous cross-sectional studies. 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of a questionnaire method for estimating extent of menstrual blood loss in young adult women.

PubMed

Heath, A L; Skeaff, C M; Gibson, R S

1999-04-01

The objective of this study was to validate two indirect methods for estimating the extent of menstrual blood loss against a reference method to determine which method would be most appropriate for use in a population of young adult women. Thirty-two women aged 18 to 29 years (mean +/- SD; 22.4 +/- 2.8) were recruited by poster in Dunedin (New Zealand). Data are presented for 29 women. A recall method and a record method for estimating extent of menstrual loss were validated against a weighed reference method. Spearman rank correlation coefficients between blood loss assessed by Weighed Menstrual Loss and Menstrual Record was rs = 0.47 (p = 0.012), and between Weighed Menstrual Loss and Menstrual Recall, was rs = 0.61 (p = 0.001). The Record method correctly classified 66% of participants into the same tertile, grossly misclassifying 14%. The Recall method correctly classified 59% of participants, grossly misclassifying 7%. Reference method menstrual loss calculated for surrogate categories demonstrated a significant difference between the second and third tertiles for the Record method, and between the first and third tertiles for the Recall method. The Menstrual Recall method can differentiate between low and high levels of menstrual blood loss in young adult women, is quick to complete and analyse, and has a low participant burden.

On the estimation of dispersal and movement of birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.

2004-01-01

The estimation of dispersal and movement is important to evolutionary and population ecologists, as well as to wildlife managers. We review statistical methodology available to estimate movement probabilities. We begin with cases where individual birds can be marked and their movements estimated with the use of multisite capture-recapture methods. Movements can be monitored either directly, using telemetry, or by accounting for detection probability when conventional marks are used. When one or more sites are unobservable, telemetry, band recoveries, incidental observations, a closed- or open-population robust design, or partial determinism in movements can be used to estimate movement. When individuals cannot be marked, presence-absence data can be used to model changes in occupancy over time, providing indirect inferences about movement. Where abundance estimates over time are available for multiple sites, potential coupling of their dynamics can be investigated using linear cross-correlation or nonlinear dynamic tools.

Structural Equation Models in a Redundancy Analysis Framework With Covariates.

PubMed

Lovaglio, Pietro Giorgio; Vittadini, Giorgio

2014-01-01

A recent method to specify and fit structural equation modeling in the Redundancy Analysis framework based on so-called Extended Redundancy Analysis (ERA) has been proposed in the literature. In this approach, the relationships between the observed exogenous variables and the observed endogenous variables are moderated by the presence of unobservable composites, estimated as linear combinations of exogenous variables. However, in the presence of direct effects linking exogenous and endogenous variables, or concomitant indicators, the composite scores are estimated by ignoring the presence of the specified direct effects. To fit structural equation models, we propose a new specification and estimation method, called Generalized Redundancy Analysis (GRA), allowing us to specify and fit a variety of relationships among composites, endogenous variables, and external covariates. The proposed methodology extends the ERA method, using a more suitable specification and estimation algorithm, by allowing for covariates that affect endogenous indicators indirectly through the composites and/or directly. To illustrate the advantages of GRA over ERA we propose a simulation study of small samples. Moreover, we propose an application aimed at estimating the impact of formal human capital on the initial earnings of graduates of an Italian university, utilizing a structural model consistent with well-established economic theory.

Fuel-Optimal Altitude Maintenance of Low-Earth-Orbit Spacecrafts by Combined Direct/Indirect Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyung-Ha; Park, Chandeok; Park, Sang-Young

2015-12-01

This work presents fuel-optimal altitude maintenance of Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) spacecrafts experiencing non-negligible air drag and J2 perturbation. A pseudospectral (direct) method is first applied to roughly estimate an optimal fuel consumption strategy, which is employed as an initial guess to precisely determine itself. Based on the physical specifications of KOrea Multi-Purpose SATellite-2 (KOMPSAT-2), a Korean artificial satellite, numerical simulations show that a satellite ascends with full thrust at the early stage of the maneuver period and then descends with null thrust. While the thrust profile is presumably bang-off, it is difficult to precisely determine the switching time by using a pseudospectral method only. This is expected, since the optimal switching epoch does not coincide with one of the collocation points prescribed by the pseudospectral method, in general. As an attempt to precisely determine the switching time and the associated optimal thrust history, a shooting (indirect) method is then employed with the initial guess being obtained through the pseudospectral method. This hybrid process allows the determination of the optimal fuel consumption for LEO spacecrafts and their thrust profiles efficiently and precisely.

Co-state initialization for the minimum-time low-thrust trajectory optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taheri, Ehsan; Li, Nan I.; Kolmanovsky, Ilya

2017-05-01

This paper presents an approach for co-state initialization which is a critical step in solving minimum-time low-thrust trajectory optimization problems using indirect optimal control numerical methods. Indirect methods used in determining the optimal space trajectories typically result in two-point boundary-value problems and are solved by single- or multiple-shooting numerical methods. Accurate initialization of the co-state variables facilitates the numerical convergence of iterative boundary value problem solvers. In this paper, we propose a method which exploits the trajectory generated by the so-called pseudo-equinoctial and three-dimensional finite Fourier series shape-based methods to estimate the initial values of the co-states. The performance of the approach for two interplanetary rendezvous missions from Earth to Mars and from Earth to asteroid Dionysus is compared against three other approaches which, respectively, exploit random initialization of co-states, adjoint-control transformation and a standard genetic algorithm. The results indicate that by using our proposed approach the percent of the converged cases is higher for trajectories with higher number of revolutions while the computation time is lower. These features are advantageous for broad trajectory search in the preliminary phase of mission designs.

Indirect potentiometric titration of ascorbic acid in pharmaceutical preparations using copper based mercury film electrode.

PubMed

Abdul Kamal Nazer, Meeran Mohideen; Hameed, Abdul Rahman Shahul; Riyazuddin, Patel

2004-01-01

A simple and rapid potentiometric method for the estimation of ascorbic acid in pharmaceutical dosage forms has been developed. The method is based on treating ascorbic acid with iodine and titration of the iodide produced equivalent to ascorbic acid with silver nitrate using Copper Based Mercury Film Electrode (CBMFE) as an indicator electrode. Interference study was carried to check possible interference of usual excipients and other vitamins. The precision and accuracy of the method was assessed by the application of lack-of-fit test and other statistical methods. The results of the proposed method and British Pharmacopoeia method were compared using F and t-statistical tests of significance.

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Gruber, N.; Iida, Y.; Jacobson, A. R.; Jones, S.; Landschützer, P.; Metzl, N.; Nakaoka, S.; Olsen, A.; Park, G.-H.; Peylin, P.; Rodgers, K. B.; Sasse, T. P.; Schuster, U.; Shutler, J. D.; Valsala, V.; Wanninkhof, R.; Zeng, J.

2015-08-01

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air CO2 fluxes have been investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the Eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spead in the detailed variations, mapping methods with closer match to the data also tend to be more consistent with each other. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr-1 (standard deviation over 1992-2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. On a decadal perspective, the global CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to 2000. The weighted mean total ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

Regional models of the gravity field from terrestrial gravity data of heterogeneous quality and density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talvik, Silja; Oja, Tõnis; Ellmann, Artu; Jürgenson, Harli

2014-05-01

Gravity field models in a regional scale are needed for a number of applications, for example national geoid computation, processing of precise levelling data and geological modelling. Thus the methods applied for modelling the gravity field from surveyed gravimetric information need to be considered carefully. The influence of using different gridding methods, the inclusion of unit or realistic weights and indirect gridding of free air anomalies (FAA) are investigated in the study. Known gridding methods such as kriging (KRIG), least squares collocation (LSCO), continuous curvature (CCUR) and optimal Delaunay triangulation (ODET) are used for production of gridded gravity field surfaces. As the quality of data collected varies considerably depending on the methods and instruments available or used in surveying it is important to somehow weigh the input data. This puts additional demands on data maintenance as accuracy information needs to be available for each data point participating in the modelling which is complicated by older gravity datasets where the uncertainties of not only gravity values but also supplementary information such as survey point position are not always known very accurately. A number of gravity field applications (e.g. geoid computation) demand foran FAA model, the acquisition of which is also investigated. Instead of direct gridding it could be more appropriate to proceed with indirect FAA modelling using a Bouguer anomaly grid to reduce the effect of topography on the resulting FAA model (e.g. near terraced landforms). The inclusion of different gridding methods, weights and indirect FAA modelling helps to improve gravity field modelling methods. It becomes possible to estimate the impact of varying methodical approaches on the gravity field modelling as statistical output is compared. Such knowledge helps assess the accuracy of gravity field models and their effect on the aforementioned applications.

Low validity of the Sensewear Pro3 activity monitor compared to indirect calorimetry during simulated free living in patients with osteoarthritis of the hip

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background To validate physical activity estimates by the Sensewear Pro3 activity monitor compared with indirect calorimetry during simulated free living in patients diagnosed with osteoarthritis of the hip pre or post total hip arthroplasty. Methods Twenty patients diagnosed with hip osteoarthritis (10 pre- and 10 post total hip arthroplasty; 40% female; age: 63.3 ± 9.0; BMI: 23.7 ± 3.7). All patients completed a 2 hour protocol of simulated free living with 8 different typical physical activity types. Energy consumption (kcal/min) was estimated by the Sense Wear pro3 Armband activity monitor and validated against indirect calorimetry (criterion method) by means of a portable unit (Cosmed K4b2). Bias and variance was analyzed using functional ANOVA. Results Mean bias during all activities was 1.5 Kcal/min 95%CI [1.3; 1.8] corresponding to 72% (overestimation). Normal gait speed showed an overestimation of 2.8 Kcal/min, 95%CI [2.3; 3.3] (93%) while an underestimation of -1.1 Kcal/min, 95%CI [-1.8; -0.3] (-25%) was recorded during stair climb. Activities dominated by upper body movements showed large overestimation with 4.37 Kcal/min, 95%CI [3.8; 5.1] (170%) being recorded during gardening. Both bias and variance appeared to be dependent on activity type. Conclusion The activity monitor generally overestimated the energy consumption during common activities of low to medium intensity in the patient group. The size and direction of the bias was highly dependent on the activity type which indicates the activity monitor is of limited value in patients with hip osteoarthritis and that the results do not express the real energy expenditure. PMID:24552503

Calculation versus measurement of total energy expenditure.

PubMed

van Lanschot, J J; Feenstra, B W; Vermeij, C G; Bruining, H A

1986-11-01

In acutely ill patients both hypo- and hyperalimentation must be avoided by adjusting caloric intake to total energy expenditure (TEE). We determined the discrepancy between basal energy expenditure (BEE) calculated from the basic Harris-Benedict formula and TEE measured by continuous indirect calorimetry in a heterogeneous group of mechanically ventilated surgical patients. We also compared the accuracy of TEE calculated from the corrected Harris-Benedict formula or estimated by intermittent indirect calorimetry to that of TEE measured by continuous indirect calorimetry. The poor correlation between calculated BEE and measured TEE was significantly (p less than .05) improved by a correction factor based on each patient's clinical condition. The mean absolute difference between calculated TEE and measured TEE was 8.9 +/- 9.6 (SD) %. Calculations were significantly (p less than .05) improved by estimating TEE from two 5-min recording periods, which suggests that continuous indirect calorimetry may not always be necessary to guide caloric replacement.

Issues to Be Considered in Counting Burrows as a Measure of Atlantic Ghost Crab Populations, an Important Bioindicator of Sandy Beaches

PubMed Central

Pombo, Maíra; Turra, Alexander

2013-01-01

The use of indirect estimates of ghost-crab populations to assess beach disturbance has several advantages, including non-destructiveness, ease and low cost, although this strategy may add some degree of noise to estimates of population parameters. Resolution of these shortcomings may allow wider use of these populations as an indicator of differences in quality among beaches. This study analyzed to what extent the number of crab burrows may diverge from the number of animals, considering beach morphology, burrow depth and signs of occupation as contributing factors or indicators of a higher or lower occupation rate. We estimated the occupation rate of crabs in burrows on nine low-use beaches, which were previously categorized as dissipative, intermediate or reflexive. Three random 2-m-wide transects were laid perpendicular to the shoreline, where burrows were counted and excavated to search for crabs. The depth and signs of recent activity around the burrows were also recorded. The occupation rate differed on the different beaches, but morphodynamics was not identified as a grouping factor. A considerable number of burrows that lacked signs of recent activity proved to be occupied, and the proportions of these burrows also differed among beaches. Virtually all burrows less than 10 cm deep were unoccupied; the occupation rate tended to increase gradually to a burrow depth of 20–35 cm. Other methods (water, smoke, and traps) were applied to measure the effectiveness of excavating as a method for burrow counts. Traps and excavation proved to be the best methods. These observations illustrate the possible degree of unreliability of comparisons of beaches based on indirect measures. Combining burrow depth assessment with surrounding signs of occupation proved to be a useful tool to minimize biases. PMID:24376748

Estimating Power Outage Cost based on a Survey for Industrial Customers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Yoshikuni; Matsuhashi, Ryuji

A survey was conducted on power outage cost for industrial customers. 5139 factories, which are designated energy management factories in Japan, answered their power consumption and the loss of production value due to the power outage in an hour in summer weekday. The median of unit cost of power outage of whole sectors is estimated as 672 yen/kWh. The sector of services for amusement and hobbies and the sector of manufacture of information and communication electronics equipment relatively have higher unit cost of power outage. Direct damage cost from power outage in whole sectors reaches 77 billion yen. Then utilizing input-output analysis, we estimated indirect damage cost that is caused by the repercussion of production halt. Indirect damage cost in whole sectors reaches 91 billion yen. The sector of wholesale and retail trade has the largest direct damage cost. The sector of manufacture of transportation equipment has the largest indirect damage cost.

Global Economic Impact of Dental Diseases.

PubMed

Listl, S; Galloway, J; Mossey, P A; Marcenes, W

2015-10-01

Reporting the economic burden of oral diseases is important to evaluate the societal relevance of preventing and addressing oral diseases. In addition to treatment costs, there are indirect costs to consider, mainly in terms of productivity losses due to absenteeism from work. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the direct and indirect costs of dental diseases worldwide to approximate the global economic impact. Estimation of direct treatment costs was based on a systematic approach. For estimation of indirect costs, an approach suggested by the World Health Organization's Commission on Macroeconomics and Health was employed, which factored in 2010 values of gross domestic product per capita as provided by the International Monetary Fund and oral burden of disease estimates from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study. Direct treatment costs due to dental diseases worldwide were estimated at US$298 billion yearly, corresponding to an average of 4.6% of global health expenditure. Indirect costs due to dental diseases worldwide amounted to US$144 billion yearly, corresponding to economic losses within the range of the 10 most frequent global causes of death. Within the limitations of currently available data sources and methodologies, these findings suggest that the global economic impact of dental diseases amounted to US$442 billion in 2010. Improvements in population oral health may imply substantial economic benefits not only in terms of reduced treatment costs but also because of fewer productivity losses in the labor market. © International & American Associations for Dental Research 2015.

Comparison of glucose lowering effect of metformin and acarbose in type 2 diabetes mellitus: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Gu, Shuyan; Shi, Jihao; Tang, Zhiliu; Sawhney, Monika; Hu, Huimei; Shi, Lizheng; Fonseca, Vivian; Dong, Hengjin

2015-01-01

Metformin is the first-line oral hypoglycemic agent for type 2 diabetes mellitus recommended by international guidelines. However, little information exists comparing it with acarbose which is also commonly used in China. This study expanded knowledge by combining direct and indirect evidence to ascertain the glucose lowering effects of both drugs. PubMed (1980- December 2013) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases (1994-January 2014) were systematically searched for eligible randomized controlled trials from Chinese and English literatures. Meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the glucose lowering effects of metformin vs. acarbose, or either of them vs. common comparators (placebo or sulphonylureas), using random- and fixed-effect models. Bucher method with indirect treatment comparison calculator was applied to convert the summary estimates from the meta-analyses into weighted-mean-difference (WMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to represent the comparative efficacy between metformin and acarbose. A total of 75 studies were included in the analysis. In direct comparison (8 trials), metformin reduced glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) by 0.06% more than acarbose, with no significant difference (WMD,-0.06%; 95% CI, -0.32% to 0.20%). In indirect comparisons (67 trials), by using placebo and sulphonylureas as common comparators, metformin achieved significant HbA1c reduction than acarbose, by -0.38% (WMD,-0.38%, 95% CI, -0.736% to -0.024%) and -0.34% (WMD, -0.34%, 95% CI, -0.651% to -0.029%) respectively. The glucose lowering effects of metformin monotherapy and acarbose monotherapy are the same by direct comparison, while metformin is a little better by indirect comparison. This implies that the effect of metformin is at least as good as acarbose's.

Evaluation of a serological test (indirect ELISA) for the diagnosis of sarcoptic mange in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes).

PubMed

Bornstein, Set; Frössling, Jenny; Näslund, Katarina; Zakrisson, Göran; Mörner, Torsten

2006-12-01

Sarcoptic mange occurs in many parts of the world and is common in populations of domestic and wild canids, including red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). In recent years, an indirect antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), with higher sensitivity and specificity than traditional diagnostic methods, has been successfully applied in the diagnosis of sarcoptic mange in dogs. The same ELISA has also demonstrated specific antibodies to Sarcoptes scabiei in experimentally infected red foxes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the indirect ELISA when used to detect antibodies to S. scabiei in field sera from Swedish red foxes. One cohort of both infected and non-infected red foxes (cohort 1; n = 88), and one cohort of apparently non-infected foxes (cohort 2; n = 67) were examined for skin lesions and presence of S. scabiei by thorough visual examination at autopsy and skin scrapings. Samples of blood-tinted body liquid from the abdomen or thorax cavity were collected and analysed by the indirect ELISA. The relative sensitivity and specificity of the ELISA at different cut-offs (OD values) were estimated by comparing the test results to the infection status as determined by examination and skin scrapings. The highest combination of relative sensitivity and specificity, calculated based on cohort 1, was 95.4 and 100.0%, respectively. These estimates were constant for cut-offs 0.150-0.225, which included the cut-off based on the mean plus three standard deviations of test results from cohort 2 (0.165). It is concluded that this test can be useful in diagnosis and epidemiological studies of S. scabiei infection in red foxes.

Comparison of Estimated Energy Requirements in Severely Burned Patients With Measurements by Using Indirect Calorimetry

PubMed Central

Tancheva, D.; Arabadziev, J.; Gergov, G.; Lachev, N.; Todorova, S.; Hristova, A.

2005-01-01

Summary Severe burn injuries give rise to an extreme state of physiological stress. No other trauma results in such an accelerated rate of tissue catabolism, loss of lean body mass, and depletion of energy and protein reserves. A heightened attention to energy needs is essential, and the significance of adequate nutritional support in the complex management of patients with major burns is very important. The purpose of this study is to compare the results obtained by three of the most popular methods of estimating energy requirements in severely burned adult patients with the measurements of resting energy (REE) expenditure by indirect calorimetry (IC). A prospective study was carried out of 20 patients (male/female ratio, 17/3; mean age, 37.83 ± 10.86 yr), without accompanying morbidities, with burn injuries covering a mean body surface area of 34.27 ± 11.55% and a mean abbreviated burn severity index of 7.44 ± 1.58. During the first 30 days after trauma, the energy requirements were estimated using the Curreri, Long, and Toronto formulas. Twice weekly measurements of REE by IC were obtained. It was found that the Curreri and Long formulas overestimated the energy requirements in severely burned patients, as found by other investigators. However, no significant difference was found between the daily energy requirements calculated by the Toronto formula and the measured REE values by IC. It is concluded that the Toronto formula can be used as an alternative method for estimating the energy requirements of patients with major burns in cases where IC is not available or not applicable. PMID:21990973

Structural equation models to estimate risk of infection and tolerance to bovine mastitis.

PubMed

Detilleux, Johann; Theron, Léonard; Duprez, Jean-Noël; Reding, Edouard; Humblet, Marie-France; Planchon, Viviane; Delfosse, Camille; Bertozzi, Carlo; Mainil, Jacques; Hanzen, Christian

2013-03-06

One method to improve durably animal welfare is to select, as reproducers, animals with the highest ability to resist or tolerate infection. To do so, it is necessary to distinguish direct and indirect mechanisms of resistance and tolerance because selection on these traits is believed to have different epidemiological and evolutionary consequences. We propose structural equation models with latent variables (1) to quantify the latent risk of infection and to identify, among the many potential mediators of infection, the few ones that influence it significantly and (2) to estimate direct and indirect levels of tolerance of animals infected naturally with pathogens. We applied the method to two surveys of bovine mastitis in the Walloon region of Belgium, in which we recorded herd management practices, mastitis frequency, and results of bacteriological analyses of milk samples. Structural equation models suggested that, among more than 35 surveyed herd characteristics, only nine (age, addition of urea in the rations, treatment of subclinical mastitis, presence of dirty liner, cows with hyperkeratotic teats, machine stripping, pre- and post-milking teat disinfection, and housing of milking cows in cubicles) were directly and significantly related to a latent measure of bovine mastitis, and that treatment of subclinical mastitis was involved in the pathway between post-milking teat disinfection and latent mastitis. These models also allowed the separation of direct and indirect effects of bacterial infection on milk productivity. Results suggested that infected cows were tolerant but not resistant to mastitis pathogens. We revealed the advantages of structural equation models, compared to classical models, for dissecting measurements of resistance and tolerance to infectious diseases, here bovine mastitis. Using our method, we identified nine major risk factors that were directly associated with an increased risk of mastitis and suggested that cows were tolerant but not resistant to mastitis. Selection should aim at improved resistance to infection by mastitis pathogens, although further investigations are needed due to the limitations of the data used in this study.

Graph-based impact analysis as a framework for incorporating practitioner knowledge in dairy herd health management.

PubMed

Krieger, M; Schwabenbauer, E-M; Hoischen-Taubner, S; Emanuelson, U; Sundrum, A

2018-03-01

Production diseases in dairy cows are multifactorial, which means they emerge from complex interactions between many different farm variables. Variables with a large impact on production diseases can be identified for groups of farms using statistical models, but these methods cannot be used to identify highly influential variables in individual farms. This, however, is necessary for herd health planning, because farm conditions and associated health problems vary largely between farms. The aim of this study was to rank variables according to their anticipated effect on production diseases on the farm level by applying a graph-based impact analysis on 192 European organic dairy farms. Direct impacts between 13 pre-defined variables were estimated for each farm during a round-table discussion attended by practitioners, that is farmer, veterinarian and herd advisor. Indirect impacts were elaborated through graph analysis taking into account impact strengths. Across farms, factors supposedly exerting the most influence on production diseases were 'feeding', 'hygiene' and 'treatment' (direct impacts), as well as 'knowledge and skills' and 'herd health monitoring' (indirect impacts). Factors strongly influenced by production diseases were 'milk performance', 'financial resources' and 'labour capacity' (directly and indirectly). Ranking of variables on the farm level revealed considerable differences between farms in terms of their most influential and most influenced farm factors. Consequently, very different strategies may be required to reduce production diseases in these farms. The method is based on perceptions and estimations and thus prone to errors. From our point of view, however, this weakness is clearly outweighed by the ability to assess and to analyse farm-specific relationships and thus to complement general knowledge with contextual knowledge. Therefore, we conclude that graph-based impact analysis represents a promising decision support tool for herd health planning. The next steps include testing the method using more specific and problem-oriented variables as well as evaluating its effectiveness.

How Big Is It Really? Assessing the Efficacy of Indirect Estimates of Body Size in Asian Elephants.

PubMed

Chapman, Simon N; Mumby, Hannah S; Crawley, Jennie A H; Mar, Khyne U; Htut, Win; Thura Soe, Aung; Aung, Htoo Htoo; Lummaa, Virpi

2016-01-01

Information on an organism's body size is pivotal in understanding its life history and fitness, as well as helping inform conservation measures. However, for many species, particularly large-bodied wild animals, taking accurate body size measurements can be a challenge. Various means to estimate body size have been employed, from more direct methods such as using photogrammetry to obtain height or length measurements, to indirect prediction of weight using other body morphometrics or even the size of dung boli. It is often unclear how accurate these measures are because they cannot be compared to objective measures. Here, we investigate how well existing estimation equations predict the actual body weight of Asian elephants Elephas maximus, using body measurements (height, chest girth, length, foot circumference and neck circumference) taken directly from a large population of semi-captive animals in Myanmar (n = 404). We then define new and better fitting formulas to predict body weight in Myanmar elephants from these readily available measures. We also investigate whether the important parameters height and chest girth can be estimated from photographs (n = 151). Our results show considerable variation in the ability of existing estimation equations to predict weight, and that the equations proposed in this paper predict weight better in almost all circumstances. We also find that measurements from standardised photographs reflect body height and chest girth after applying minor adjustments. Our results have implications for size estimation of large wild animals in the field, as well as for management in captive settings.

How Big Is It Really? Assessing the Efficacy of Indirect Estimates of Body Size in Asian Elephants

PubMed Central

Chapman, Simon N.; Mumby, Hannah S.; Crawley, Jennie A. H.; Mar, Khyne U.; Htut, Win; Thura Soe, Aung; Aung, Htoo Htoo; Lummaa, Virpi

2016-01-01

Information on an organism’s body size is pivotal in understanding its life history and fitness, as well as helping inform conservation measures. However, for many species, particularly large-bodied wild animals, taking accurate body size measurements can be a challenge. Various means to estimate body size have been employed, from more direct methods such as using photogrammetry to obtain height or length measurements, to indirect prediction of weight using other body morphometrics or even the size of dung boli. It is often unclear how accurate these measures are because they cannot be compared to objective measures. Here, we investigate how well existing estimation equations predict the actual body weight of Asian elephants Elephas maximus, using body measurements (height, chest girth, length, foot circumference and neck circumference) taken directly from a large population of semi-captive animals in Myanmar (n = 404). We then define new and better fitting formulas to predict body weight in Myanmar elephants from these readily available measures. We also investigate whether the important parameters height and chest girth can be estimated from photographs (n = 151). Our results show considerable variation in the ability of existing estimation equations to predict weight, and that the equations proposed in this paper predict weight better in almost all circumstances. We also find that measurements from standardised photographs reflect body height and chest girth after applying minor adjustments. Our results have implications for size estimation of large wild animals in the field, as well as for management in captive settings. PMID:26938085

Slope-Area Computation Program Graphical User Interface 1.0—A Preprocessing and Postprocessing Tool for Estimating Peak Flood Discharge Using the Slope-Area Method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradley, D. Nathan

2012-01-01

The slope-area method is a technique for estimating the peak discharge of a flood after the water has receded (Dalrymple and Benson, 1967). This type of discharge estimate is called an “indirect measurement” because it relies on evidence left behind by the flood, such as high-water marks (HWMs) on trees or buildings. These indicators of flood stage are combined with measurements of the cross-sectional geometry of the stream, estimates of channel roughness, and a mathematical model that balances the total energy of the flow between cross sections. This is in contrast to a “direct” measurement of discharge during the flood where cross-sectional area is measured and a current meter or acoustic equipment is used to measure the water velocity. When a direct discharge measurement cannot be made at a gage during high flows because of logistics or safety reasons, an indirect measurement of a peak discharge is useful for defining the high-flow section of the stage-discharge relation (rating curve) at the stream gage, resulting in more accurate computation of high flows. The Slope-Area Computation program (SAC; Fulford, 1994) is an implementation of the slope-area method that computes a peak-discharge estimate from inputs of water-surface slope (from surveyed HWMs), channel geometry, and estimated channel roughness. SAC is a command line program written in Fortran that reads input data from a formatted text file and prints results to another formatted text file. Preparing the input file can be time-consuming and prone to errors. This document describes the SAC graphical user interface (GUI), a crossplatform “wrapper” application that prepares the SAC input file, executes the program, and helps the user interpret the output. The SAC GUI is an update and enhancement of the slope-area method (SAM; Hortness, 2004; Berenbrock, 1996), an earlier spreadsheet tool used to aid field personnel in the completion of a slope-area measurement. The SAC GUI reads survey data, develops a plan-view plot, water-surface profile, cross-section plots, and develops the SAC input file. The SAC GUI also develops HEC-2 files that can be imported into HEC–RAS.

Rumination and depression in Chinese university students: The mediating role of overgeneral autobiographical memory.

PubMed

Kong, Tianzhu; He, Yini; Auerbach, Randy P; McWhinnie, Chad M; Xiao, Jing

2015-04-01

In this study, we examined the mediator effects of overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM) on the relationship between rumination and depression in 323 Chinese university students. 323 undergraduates completed the questionnaires measuring OGM (Autobiographical Memory Test), rumination (Ruminative Response Scale) and depression (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale). Results using structural equation modeling showed that OGM partially-mediated the relationship between rumination and depression (χ 2 = 88.61, p < .01; RMSEA = .051; SRMR = .040; and CFI = .91). Bootstrap methods were used to assess the magnitude of the indirect effects. The results of the bootstrap estimation procedure and subsequent analyses indicated that the indirect effects of OGM on the relationship between rumination and depressive symptoms were significant. The results indicated that rumination and depression were partially mediated by OGM.

Capture of near-Earth objects with low-thrust propulsion and invariant manifolds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Gao; Jiang, Fanghua

2016-01-01

In this paper, a mission incorporating low-thrust propulsion and invariant manifolds to capture near-Earth objects (NEOs) is investigated. The initial condition has the spacecraft rendezvousing with the NEO. The mission terminates once it is inserted into a libration point orbit (LPO). The spacecraft takes advantage of stable invariant manifolds for low-energy ballistic capture. Low-thrust propulsion is employed to retrieve the joint spacecraft-asteroid system. Global optimization methods are proposed for the preliminary design. Local direct and indirect methods are applied to optimize the two-impulse transfers. Indirect methods are implemented to optimize the low-thrust trajectory and estimate the largest retrievable mass. To overcome the difficulty that arises from bang-bang control, a homotopic approach is applied to find an approximate solution. By detecting the switching moments of the bang-bang control the efficiency and accuracy of numerical integration are guaranteed. By using the homotopic approach as the initial guess the shooting function is easy to solve. The relationship between the maximum thrust and the retrieval mass is investigated. We find that both numerically and theoretically a larger thrust is preferred.

Causal mediation analysis with a binary outcome and multiple continuous or ordinal mediators: Simulations and application to an alcohol intervention

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Trang Quynh; Webb-Vargas, Yenny; Koning, Ina M.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

2016-01-01

We investigate a method to estimate the combined effect of multiple continuous/ordinal mediators on a binary outcome: 1) fit a structural equation model with probit link for the outcome and identity/probit link for continuous/ordinal mediators, 2) predict potential outcome probabilities, and 3) compute natural direct and indirect effects. Step 2 involves rescaling the latent continuous variable underlying the outcome to address residual mediator variance/covariance. We evaluate the estimation of risk-difference- and risk-ratio-based effects (RDs, RRs) using the ML, WLSMV and Bayes estimators in Mplus. Across most variations in path-coefficient and mediator-residual-correlation signs and strengths, and confounding situations investigated, the method performs well with all estimators, but favors ML/WLSMV for RDs with continuous mediators, and Bayes for RRs with ordinal mediators. Bayes outperforms WLSMV/ML regardless of mediator type when estimating RRs with small potential outcome probabilities and in two other special cases. An adolescent alcohol prevention study is used for illustration. PMID:27158217

Issues connected with indirect cost quantification: a focus on the transportation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Křivánková, Zuzana; Bíl, Michal; Kubeček, Jan; Vodák, Rostislav

2017-04-01

Transportation and communication networks in general are vital parts of modern society. The economy relies heavily on transportation system performance. A number of people commutes to work regularly. Stockpiles in many companies are being reduced as the just-in-time production process is able to supply resources via the transportation network on time. Natural hazards have the potential to disturb transportation systems. Earthquakes, flooding or landsliding are examples of high-energetic processes which are capable of causing direct losses (i.e. physical damage to the infrastructure). We have focused on quantification of the indirect cost of natural hazards which are not easy to estimate. Indirect losses can also emerge as a result of meteorological hazards with low energy which only seldom cause direct losses, e.g. glaze, snowfall. Whereas evidence of repair work and general direct costs usually exist or can be estimated, indirect costs are much more difficult to identify particularly when they are not covered by insurance agencies. Delimitations of alternative routes (detours) are the most frequent responses to blocked road links. Indirect costs can then be related to increased fuel consumption and additional operating costs. Detours usually result in prolonged travel times. Indirect costs quantification has to therefore cover the value of the time. The costs from the delay are a nonlinear function of travel time, however. The existence of an alternative transportation pattern may also result in an increased number of traffic crashes. This topic has not been studied in depth but an increase in traffic crashes has been reported when people suddenly changed their traffic modes, e.g. when air traffic was not possible. The lost user benefit from those trips that were cancelled or suppressed is also difficult to quantify. Several approaches, based on post-event questioner surveys, have been applied to communities and companies affected by transportation accessibility cut-off. No widely accepted methodology is available, however. In this presentation we will discuss current approaches, and their limitations related to indirect cost estimation which can be applied to estimation of natural hazard impacts.

Longevity of clonal plants: why it matters and how to measure it

PubMed Central

de Witte, Lucienne C.; Stöcklin, Jürg

2010-01-01

Background Species' life-history and population dynamics are strongly shaped by the longevity of individuals, but life span is one of the least accessible demographic traits, particularly in clonal plants. Continuous vegetative reproduction of genets enables persistence despite low or no sexual reproduction, affecting genet turnover rates and population stability. Therefore, the longevity of clonal plants is of considerable biological interest, but remains relatively poorly known. Scope Here, we critically review the present knowledge on the longevity of clonal plants and discuss its importance for population persistence. Direct life-span measurements such as growth-ring analysis in woody plants are relatively easy to take, although, for many clonal plants, these methods are not adequate due to the variable growth pattern of ramets and difficult genet identification. Recently, indirect methods have been introduced in which genet size and annual shoot increments are used to estimate genet age. These methods, often based on molecular techniques, allow the investigation of genet size and age structure of whole populations, a crucial issue for understanding their viability and persistence. However, indirect estimates of clonal longevity are impeded because the process of ageing in clonal plants is still poorly understood and because their size and age are not always well correlated. Alternative estimators for genet life span such as somatic mutations have recently been suggested. Conclusions Empirical knowledge on the longevity of clonal species has increased considerably in the last few years. Maximum age estimates are an indicator of population persistence, but are not sufficient to evaluate turnover rates and the ability of long-lived clonal plants to enhance community stability and ecosystem resilience. In order to understand the dynamics of populations it will be necessary to measure genet size and age structure, not only life spans of single individuals, and to use such data for modelling of genet dynamics. PMID:20880935

The net energy values of corn, dried distillers grains with solubles and wheat bran for laying hens using indirect calorimetry method.

PubMed

Ning, D; Yuan, J M; Wang, Y W; Peng, Y Z; Guo, Y M

2014-02-01

The present study was conducted to estimate the NE values of corn, dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) and wheat bran (WB) for laying hens based on an indirect calorimetry method and nitrogen balance measurements. A total of 576 twenty-eight-wk-old Dwarf Pink-shell laying hens were randomly assigned to four groups fed a basal diet (BD) or a combination of BD with 50% corn or 20% DDGS or 20% WB, with four replicates each. After a 7-d adaptation period, each replicate with 36 hens were kept in one of the two respiration chambers to measure the heat production (HP) for 6 days during the feeding period and subsequent 3-d fasting. The equilibrium fasting HP (FHP) provided an estimate of NE requirements for maintenance (NEm). The NE values of test feedstuffs was estimated using the difference method. Results showed that the heat increment that contributed 35.34 to 37.85% of ME intake was not influenced by experimental diets (p>0.05) when expressed as Mcal/kg of DM feed intake. Lighting increased the HP in hens in an fed-state. The FHP decreased over time (p<0.05) with the lowest value determined on the third day of starvation. No significant difference between treatments was found on FHP of d 3 (p>0.05). The estimated AME, AMEn, and NE values were 3.46, 3.44 and 2.25 Mcal/kg DM for corn, 3.11, 2.79, and 1.80 Mcal/kg DM for DDGS, 2.14, 2.10, and 1.14 Mcal/kg DM for WB, respectively. The net availability of AME of corn tended to be numerically higher than DDGS and WB (p = 0.096). In conclusion, compared with corn, the energy values of DDGS and WB were overestimated when expressed on an AME basis.

MRAS state estimator for speed sensorless ISFOC induction motor drives with Luenberger load torque estimation.

PubMed

Zorgani, Youssef Agrebi; Koubaa, Yassine; Boussak, Mohamed

2016-03-01

This paper presents a novel method for estimating the load torque of a sensorless indirect stator flux oriented controlled (ISFOC) induction motor drive based on the model reference adaptive system (MRAS) scheme. As a matter of fact, this method is meant to inter-connect a speed estimator with the load torque observer. For this purpose, a MRAS has been applied to estimate the rotor speed with tuned load torque in order to obtain a high performance ISFOC induction motor drive. The reference and adjustable models, developed in the stationary stator reference frame, are used in the MRAS scheme in an attempt to estimate the speed of the measured terminal voltages and currents. The load torque is estimated by means of a Luenberger observer defined throughout the mechanical equation. Every observer state matrix depends on the mechanical characteristics of the machine taking into account the vicious friction coefficient and inertia moment. Accordingly, some simulation results are presented to validate the proposed method and to highlight the influence of the variation of the inertia moment and the friction coefficient on the speed and the estimated load torque. The experimental results, concerning to the sensorless speed with a load torque estimation, are elaborated in order to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The complete sensorless ISFOC with load torque estimation is successfully implemented in real time using a digital signal processor board DSpace DS1104 for a laboratory 3 kW induction motor. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient data assimilation algorithm for bathymetry application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghorbanidehno, H.; Lee, J. H.; Farthing, M.; Hesser, T.; Kitanidis, P. K.; Darve, E. F.

2017-12-01

Information on the evolving state of the nearshore zone bathymetry is crucial to shoreline management, recreational safety, and naval operations. The high cost and complex logistics of using ship-based surveys for bathymetry estimation have encouraged the use of remote sensing techniques. Data assimilation methods combine the remote sensing data and nearshore hydrodynamic models to estimate the unknown bathymetry and the corresponding uncertainties. In particular, several recent efforts have combined Kalman Filter-based techniques such as ensembled-based Kalman filters with indirect video-based observations to address the bathymetry inversion problem. However, these methods often suffer from ensemble collapse and uncertainty underestimation. Here, the Compressed State Kalman Filter (CSKF) method is used to estimate the bathymetry based on observed wave celerity. In order to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the CSKF method, we consider twin tests with synthetic observations of wave celerity, while the bathymetry profiles are chosen based on surveys taken by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC. The first test case is a bathymetry estimation problem for a spatially smooth and temporally constant bathymetry profile. The second test case is a bathymetry estimation problem for a temporally evolving bathymetry from a smooth to a non-smooth profile. For both problems, we compare the results of CSKF with those obtained by the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), which is a popular ensemble-based Kalman filter method.

Costs and Effects of Abdominal versus Laparoscopic Hysterectomy: Systematic Review of Controlled Trials

PubMed Central

Bijen, Claudia B. M.; Vermeulen, Karin M.; Mourits, Marian J. E.; de Bock, Geertruida H.

2009-01-01

Objective Comparative evaluation of costs and effects of laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH) and abdominal hysterectomy (AH). Data sources Controlled trials from Cochrane Central register of controlled trials, Medline, Embase and prospective trial registers. Selection of studies Twelve (randomized) controlled studies including the search terms costs, laparoscopy, laparotomy and hysterectomy were identified. Methods The type of cost analysis, perspective of cost analyses and separate cost components were assessed. The direct and indirect costs were extracted from the original studies. For the cost estimation, hospital stay and procedure costs were selected as most important cost drivers. As main outcome the major complication rate was taken. Findings Analysis was performed on 2226 patients, of which 1013 (45.5%) in the LH group and 1213 (54.5%) in the AH group. Five studies scored ≥10 points (out of 19) for methodological quality. The reported total direct costs in the LH group ($63,997) were 6.1% higher than the AH group ($60,114). The reported total indirect costs of the LH group ($1,609) were half of the total indirect in the AH group ($3,139). The estimated mean major complication rate in the LH group (14.3%) was lower than in the AH group (15.9%). The estimated total costs in the LH group were $3,884 versus $3,312 in the AH group. The incremental costs for reducing one patient with major complication(s) in the LH group compared to the AH group was $35,750. Conclusions The shorter hospital stay in the LH group compensates for the increased procedure costs, with less morbidity. LH points in the direction of cost effectiveness, however further research is warranted with a broader costs perspective including long term effects as societal benefit, quality of life and survival. PMID:19806210

Defining and estimating causal direct and indirect effects when setting the mediator to specific values is not feasible.

PubMed

Lok, Judith J

2016-09-30

Natural direct and indirect effects decompose the effect of a treatment into the part that is mediated by a covariate (the mediator) and the part that is not. Their definitions rely on the concept of outcomes under treatment with the mediator 'set' to its value without treatment. Typically, the mechanism through which the mediator is set to this value is left unspecified, and in many applications, it may be challenging to fix the mediator to particular values for each unit or patient. Moreover, how one sets the mediator may affect the distribution of the outcome. This article introduces 'organic' direct and indirect effects, which can be defined and estimated without relying on setting the mediator to specific values. Organic direct and indirect effects can be applied, for example, to estimate how much of the effect of some treatments for HIV/AIDS on mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection is mediated by the effect of the treatment on the HIV viral load in the blood of the mother. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Energy and Protein in Critically Ill Patients with AKI: A Prospective, Multicenter Observational Study Using Indirect Calorimetry and Protein Catabolic Rate.

PubMed

Sabatino, Alice; Theilla, Miriam; Hellerman, Moran; Singer, Pierre; Maggiore, Umberto; Barbagallo, Maria; Regolisti, Giuseppe; Fiaccadori, Enrico

2017-07-26

The optimal nutritional support in Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) still remains an open issue. The present study was aimed at evaluating the validity of conventional predictive formulas for the calculation of both energy expenditure and protein needs in critically ill patients with AKI. A prospective, multicenter, observational study was conducted on adult patients hospitalized with AKI in three different intensive care units (ICU). Nutrient needs were estimated by different methods: the Guidelines of the European Society of Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition (ESPEN) for both calories and proteins, the Harris-Benedict equation, the Penn-State and Faisy-Fagon equations for energy. Actual energy and protein needs were repeatedly measured by indirect calorimetry (IC) and protein catabolic rate (PCR) until oral nutrition start, hospital discharge or renal function recovery. Forty-two patients with AKI were enrolled, with 130 IC and 123 PCR measurements obtained over 654 days of artificial nutrition. No predictive formula was precise enough, and Bland-Altman plots wide limits of agreement for all equations highlight the potential to under- or overfeed individual patients. Conventional predictive formulas may frequently lead to incorrect energy and protein need estimation. In critically ill patients with AKI an increased risk for under- or overfeeding is likely when nutrient needs are estimated instead of measured.

Estimates of the seasonal mean vertical velocity fields of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, G. H.

1983-01-01

Indirect methods are employed to estimate the wintertime and summertime mean vertical velocity fields of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and intercomparisons are made, together with comparisons with mean seasonal patterns of cloudiness and precipitation. Twice-daily NMC operational analyses produced general circulation statistics for 11 winters and 12 summers, permitting calculation of the seasonal NMC averages for 6 hr forecasts, solution of the omega equation, integration of continuity equation downward from 100 mb, and solution of the thermodynamic energy equation in the absence of diabatic heating. The methods all yielded similar vertical velocity patterns; however, the magnitude of the vertical velocities could not be calculated with great accuracy. Orography was concluded to have less of an effect in summer than in winter, when winds are stronger.

Consistently estimating absolute risk difference when translating evidence to jurisdictions of interest.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon; Coory, Michael; Willan, Andrew R

2011-02-01

Economic analysis and assessment of net clinical benefit often requires estimation of absolute risk difference (ARD) for binary outcomes (e.g. survival, response, disease progression) given baseline epidemiological risk in a jurisdiction of interest and trial evidence of treatment effects. Typically, the assumption is made that relative treatment effects are constant across baseline risk, in which case relative risk (RR) or odds ratios (OR) could be applied to estimate ARD. The objective of this article is to establish whether such use of RR or OR allows consistent estimates of ARD. ARD is calculated from alternative framing of effects (e.g. mortality vs survival) applying standard methods for translating evidence with RR and OR. For RR, the RR is applied to baseline risk in the jurisdiction to estimate treatment risk; for OR, the baseline risk is converted to odds, the OR applied and the resulting treatment odds converted back to risk. ARD is shown to be consistently estimated with OR but changes with framing of effects using RR wherever there is a treatment effect and epidemiological risk differs from trial risk. Additionally, in indirect comparisons, ARD is shown to be consistently estimated with OR, while calculation with RR allows inconsistency, with alternative framing of effects in the direction, let alone the extent, of ARD. OR ensures consistent calculation of ARD in translating evidence from trial settings and across trials in direct and indirect comparisons, avoiding inconsistencies from RR with alternative outcome framing and associated biases. These findings are critical for consistently translating evidence to inform economic analysis and assessment of net clinical benefit, as translation of evidence is proposed precisely where the advantages of OR over RR arise.

NEW APPROACHES TO ESTIMATING INDIRECT PHOTOLYSIS RATES IN AQUATIC ENVIRONMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Indirect photoreactions in aquatic environments are driven by reactive species, most of which are oxygen centered. Humic substances play an important role in photosensitizing the production of these reactive species, which include singlet molecular oxygen, superoxide ions, hydrog...

Innovations in energy expenditure assessment.

PubMed

Achamrah, Najate; Oshima, Taku; Genton, Laurence

2018-06-15

Optimal nutritional therapy has been associated with better clinical outcomes and requires providing energy as closed as possible to measured energy expenditure. We reviewed the current innovations in energy expenditure assessment in humans, focusing on indirect calorimetry and other new alternative methods. Although considered the reference method to measure energy expenditure, the use of indirect calorimetry is currently limited by the lack of an adequate device. However, recent technical developments may allow a broader use of indirect calorimetry for in-patients and out-patients. An ongoing international academic initiative to develop a new indirect calorimeter aimed to provide innovative and affordable technical solutions for many of the current limitations of indirect calorimetry. New alternative methods to indirect calorimetry, including CO2 measurements in mechanically ventilated patients, isotopic approaches and accelerometry-based fitness equipments, show promises but have been either poorly studied and/or are not accurate compared to indirect calorimetry. Therefore, to date, energy expenditure measured by indirect calorimetry remains the gold standard to guide nutritional therapy. Some new innovative methods are demonstrating promises in energy expenditure assessment, but still need to be validated. There is an ongoing need for easy-to-use, accurate and affordable indirect calorimeter for daily use in in-patients and out-patients.

The cost of diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2015: Evidence for decision and policy makers

PubMed Central

Barcelo, Alberto; Arredondo, Armando; Gordillo–Tobar, Amparo; Segovia, Johanna; Qiang, Anthony

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND The financial implications of the increase in the prevalence of diabetes in middle–income countries represents one of the main challenges to health system financing and to the society as a whole. The objective of this study was to estimate the economic cost of diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in 2015. METHODS The study used a prevalence–based approach to estimate the direct and indirect costs related to diabetes in 29 LAC countries in 2015. Direct costs included health care expenditures such as medications (insulin and oral hypoglycemic agents), tests, consultations, hospitalizations, emergency visits and treating complications. Two different scenarios (S1 and S2) were used to analyze direct cost. S1 assumed conservative estimates while S2 assumed broader coverage of medication and services. Indirect costs included lost resources due to premature mortality, temporary and permanent disabilities. RESULTS In 2015 over 41 million adults (20 years of age and more) were estimated to have Diabetes Mellitus in LAC. The total indirect cost attributed to Diabetes was US$ 57.1 billion, of which US$ 27.5 billion was due to premature mortality, US$16.2 billion to permanent disability, and US$ 13.3 billion to temporary disability. The total direct cost was estimated between US$ 45 and US$ 66 billion, of which the highest estimated cost was due to treatment of complications (US$ 1 616 to US$ 26 billion). Other estimates indicated the cost of insulin between US$ 6 and US$ 11 billion; oral medication US$ 4 to US$ 6 billion; consultations between US$ 5 and US$ 6 billion; hospitalization US$ 10 billion; emergency visits US$ 1 billion; test and laboratory exams between US$ 1 and US$ 3 million. The total cost of diabetes in 2015 in LAC was estimated to be between US$ 102 and US$ 123 billion. On average, the annual cost of treating one case of diabetes mellitus (DM) in LAC was estimated between US$ 1088 and US$ 1818. Per capita National Health Expenditures averaged US$ 1061 in LAC. CONCLUSIONS Diabetes represented a major economic burden to the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2015. The estimates presented here are key information for decision–making that can be used in the formulation of policies and programs to achieve greater efficiency and effectiveness in the use of resources for diabetes prevention in the 29 countries of LAC. PMID:29163935

Direct Estimation of Kinetic Parametric Images for Dynamic PET

PubMed Central

Wang, Guobao; Qi, Jinyi

2013-01-01

Dynamic positron emission tomography (PET) can monitor spatiotemporal distribution of radiotracer in vivo. The spatiotemporal information can be used to estimate parametric images of radiotracer kinetics that are of physiological and biochemical interests. Direct estimation of parametric images from raw projection data allows accurate noise modeling and has been shown to offer better image quality than conventional indirect methods, which reconstruct a sequence of PET images first and then perform tracer kinetic modeling pixel-by-pixel. Direct reconstruction of parametric images has gained increasing interests with the advances in computing hardware. Many direct reconstruction algorithms have been developed for different kinetic models. In this paper we review the recent progress in the development of direct reconstruction algorithms for parametric image estimation. Algorithms for linear and nonlinear kinetic models are described and their properties are discussed. PMID:24396500

Frequency Domain Analysis of Sensor Data for Event Classification in Real-Time Robot Assisted Deburring

PubMed Central

Pappachan, Bobby K; Caesarendra, Wahyu; Tjahjowidodo, Tegoeh; Wijaya, Tomi

2017-01-01

Process monitoring using indirect methods relies on the usage of sensors. Using sensors to acquire vital process related information also presents itself with the problem of big data management and analysis. Due to uncertainty in the frequency of events occurring, a higher sampling rate is often used in real-time monitoring applications to increase the chances of capturing and understanding all possible events related to the process. Advanced signal processing methods are used to further decipher meaningful information from the acquired data. In this research work, power spectrum density (PSD) of sensor data acquired at sampling rates between 40–51.2 kHz was calculated and the corelation between PSD and completed number of cycles/passes is presented. Here, the progress in number of cycles/passes is the event this research work intends to classify and the algorithm used to compute PSD is Welch’s estimate method. A comparison between Welch’s estimate method and statistical methods is also discussed. A clear co-relation was observed using Welch’s estimate to classify the number of cycles/passes. The paper also succeeds in classifying vibration signal generated by the spindle from the vibration signal acquired during finishing process. PMID:28556809

Inter-Sectoral Bisphenol A (BPA) Flows in the 2012 Chinese Economy.

PubMed

Jiang, Daqian; Chen, Wei-Qiang; Liu, Wei; Chertow, Marian

2017-08-01

Bisphenol A (BPA), a widely used petrochemical compound, has become an emerging global environmental management challenge because its leakage is associated with potential environmental and human health impacts. Until now, available BPA statistics have been limited to the products that directly use BPA. In this study, we delineate direct and indirect BPA flows for the 2012 Chinese economy. We find that construction, production of educational and recreational products, and automobile manufacturing are the most BPA-intensive sectors in terms of total BPA flows (300, 157, and 130 Gg total BPA flows, respectively). The public management and health sectors, however, incur significant indirect BPA flows, defined as embedded and inter-sectoral BPA placed into use, even though direct BPA use by these sectors is limited. By revealing the currently overlooked indirect BPA flows, this study reveals data gaps that are highly relevant to improving the accuracy of estimated BPA flows and losses. The method used herein is transferrable to other emerging and environmentally relevant materials, thereby providing the holistic understanding needed for cities, regions, or nations to design effective policy interventions.

Causal mediation analysis with multiple causally non-ordered mediators.

PubMed

Taguri, Masataka; Featherstone, John; Cheng, Jing

2018-01-01

In many health studies, researchers are interested in estimating the treatment effects on the outcome around and through an intermediate variable. Such causal mediation analyses aim to understand the mechanisms that explain the treatment effect. Although multiple mediators are often involved in real studies, most of the literature considered mediation analyses with one mediator at a time. In this article, we consider mediation analyses when there are causally non-ordered multiple mediators. Even if the mediators do not affect each other, the sum of two indirect effects through the two mediators considered separately may diverge from the joint natural indirect effect when there are additive interactions between the effects of the two mediators on the outcome. Therefore, we derive an equation for the joint natural indirect effect based on the individual mediation effects and their interactive effect, which helps us understand how the mediation effect works through the two mediators and relative contributions of the mediators and their interaction. We also discuss an extension for three mediators. The proposed method is illustrated using data from a randomized trial on the prevention of dental caries.

The direct and indirect costs of managing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Greece.

PubMed

Souliotis, Kyriakos; Kousoulakou, Hara; Hillas, Georgios; Tzanakis, Nikos; Toumbis, Michalis; Vassilakopoulos, Theodoros

2017-01-01

COPD is associated with significant economic burden. The objective of this study was to explore the direct and indirect costs associated with COPD and identify the key cost drivers of disease management in Greece. A Delphi panel of Greek pulmonologists was conducted, which aimed at eliciting local COPD treatment patterns and resource use. Resource use was translated into costs using official health insurance tariffs and Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs). In addition, absenteeism and caregiver's costs were recorded in order to quantify indirect COPD costs. The total costs of managing COPD per patient per year were estimated at €4,730, with direct (medical and nonmedical) and indirect costs accounting for 62.5% and 37.5%, respectively. COPD exacerbations were responsible for 32% of total costs (€1,512). Key exacerbation-related cost drivers were hospitalization (€830) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission costs (€454), jointly accounting for 85% of total exacerbation costs. Annual maintenance phase costs were estimated at €835, with pharmaceutical treatment accounting for 77% (€639.9). Patient time costs were estimated at €146 per year. The average number of sick days per year was estimated at 16.9, resulting in productivity losses of €968. Caregiver's costs were estimated at €806 per year. The management of COPD in Greece is associated with intensive resource use and significant economic burden. Exacerbations and productivity losses are the key cost drivers. Cost containment policies should focus on prioritizing treatments that increase patient compliance as these can lead to reduction of exacerbations, longer maintenance phases, and thus lower costs.

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, Christian; Bakker, Dorothee; Gruber, Nicolas; Iida, Yosuke; Jacobson, Andy; Jones, Steve; Landschützer, Peter; Metzl, Nicolas; Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro; Olsen, Are; Park, Geun-Ha; Peylin, Philippe; Rodgers, Keith; Sasse, Tristan; Schuster, Ute; Shutler, James; Valsala, Vinu; Wanninkhof, Rik; Zeng, Jiye

2016-04-01

Using measurements of the surface-ocean COtwo partial pressure (pCOtwo) from the SOCAT and LDEO data bases and 14 different pCOtwo mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCOtwo Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air COtwo fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCOtwo seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the Eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCOtwo data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air COtwo flux of IAVampl (standard deviation over AnalysisPeriod), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. On a decadal perspective, the global ocean COtwo uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean COtwo sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is -1.75 UPgCyr (AnalysisPeriod), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends. Using data-based sea-air COtwo fluxes in atmospheric COtwo inversions also helps to better constrain land-atmosphere COtwo fluxes.

Data-based estimates of the ocean carbon sink variability - first results of the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, C.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Gruber, N.; Iida, Y.; Jacobson, A. R.; Jones, S.; Landschützer, P.; Metzl, N.; Nakaoka, S.; Olsen, A.; Park, G.-H.; Peylin, P.; Rodgers, K. B.; Sasse, T. P.; Schuster, U.; Shutler, J. D.; Valsala, V.; Wanninkhof, R.; Zeng, J.

2015-12-01

Using measurements of the surface-ocean CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and 14 different pCO2 mapping methods recently collated by the Surface Ocean pCO2 Mapping intercomparison (SOCOM) initiative, variations in regional and global sea-air CO2 fluxes are investigated. Though the available mapping methods use widely different approaches, we find relatively consistent estimates of regional pCO2 seasonality, in line with previous estimates. In terms of interannual variability (IAV), all mapping methods estimate the largest variations to occur in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite considerable spread in the detailed variations, mapping methods that fit the data more closely also tend to agree more closely with each other in regional averages. Encouragingly, this includes mapping methods belonging to complementary types - taking variability either directly from the pCO2 data or indirectly from driver data via regression. From a weighted ensemble average, we find an IAV amplitude of the global sea-air CO2 flux of 0.31 PgC yr-1 (standard deviation over 1992-2009), which is larger than simulated by biogeochemical process models. From a decadal perspective, the global ocean CO2 uptake is estimated to have gradually increased since about 2000, with little decadal change prior to that. The weighted mean net global ocean CO2 sink estimated by the SOCOM ensemble is -1.75 PgC yr-1 (1992-2009), consistent within uncertainties with estimates from ocean-interior carbon data or atmospheric oxygen trends.

Infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan: current estimates and limitations

PubMed Central

Becker, Stan; Hansen, Peter M; Kumar, Dhirendra; Kumar, Binay; Niayesh, Haseebullah; Peters, David H; Burnham, Gilbert

2010-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine historical estimates of infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan, provide estimates for rural areas from current population-based data, and discuss the methodological challenges that undermine data quality and hinder retrospective estimations of mortality. Methods Indirect methods of estimation were used to calculate infant and under-five mortality from a household survey conducted in 2006. Sex-specific differences in underreporting of births and deaths were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect of underreporting on infant and under-five mortality. Findings For 2004, rural unadjusted infant and under-five mortality rates were estimated to be 129 and 191 deaths per 1000 live births, respectively, with some evidence indicating underreporting of female deaths. If adjustment for underreporting is made (i.e. by assuming 50% of the unreported girls are dead), mortality estimates go up to 140 and 209, respectively. Conclusion Commonly used estimates of infant and under-five mortality in Afghanistan are outdated; they do not reflect changes that have occurred in the past 15 years or recent intensive investments in health services development, such as the implementation of the Basic Package of Health Services. The sociocultural aspects of mortality and their effect on the reporting of births and deaths in Afghanistan need to be investigated further. PMID:20680122

Dating base flow in streams using dissolved gases and diurnal temperature changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, Ward E.; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Haase, Karl B.

2015-01-01

A method is presented for using dissolved CFCs or SF6 to estimate the apparent age of stream base flow by indirectly estimating the mean concentration of the tracer in the inflowing groundwater. The mean value is estimated simultaneously with the mean residence times of the gas and water in the stream by sampling the stream for one or both age tracers, along with dissolved nitrogen and argon at a single location over a period of approximately 12–14 h. The data are fitted to an equation representing the temporal in-stream gas exchange as it responds to the diurnal temperature fluctuation. The efficacy of the method is demonstrated by collecting and analyzing samples at six different stream locations across parts of northern Virginia, USA. The studied streams drain watersheds with areas of between 2 and 122 km2 during periods when the diurnal stream temperature ranged between 2 and 5°C. The method has the advantage of estimating the mean groundwater residence time of discharge from the watershed to the stream without the need for the collection of groundwater infiltrating to streambeds or local groundwater sampled from shallow observation wells near the stream.

Cost analysis in a clinical microbiology laboratory.

PubMed

Brezmes, M F; Ochoa, C; Eiros, J M

2002-08-01

The use of models for business management and cost control in public hospitals has led to a need for microbiology laboratories to know the real cost of the different products they offer. For this reason, a catalogue of microbiological products was prepared, and the costs (direct and indirect) for each product were analysed, along with estimated profitability. All tests performed in the microbiology laboratory of the "Virgen de la Concha" Hospital in Zamora over a 2-year period (73192 tests) were studied. The microbiological product catalogue was designed using homogeneity criteria with respect to procedures used, workloads and costs. For each product, the direct personnel costs (estimated from workloads following the method of the College of American Pathologists, 1992 version), the indirect personnel costs, the direct and indirect material costs and the portion of costs corresponding to the remaining laboratory costs (capital and structural costs) were calculated. The average product cost was 16.05 euros. The average cost of a urine culture (considered, for purposes of this study, as a relative value unit) reached 13.59 euros, with a significant difference observed between positive and negative cultures (negative urine culture, 10.72 euros; positive culture, 29.65 euros). Significant heterogeneity exists, both in the costs of different products and especially in the cost per positive test. The application of a detailed methodology of cost analysis facilitates the calculation of the real cost of microbiological products. This information provides a basic tool for establishing clinical management strategies.

Economic Burden of Smoking in Iran: A Prevalence-Based Annual Cost Approach

PubMed Central

Rezaei, Satar; Matin, Behzad Karami; Hajizadeh, Mohammad; Bazyar, Mohammad; Sari, Ali Akbari

2017-01-01

Objectives: The burden of smoking on the health system and society is significant. The current study aimed to estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of smoking in Iran for the year 2014. Methods: A prevalence-based disease-specific approach was used to determine costs associated with the three most common smoking-related diseases: lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD). Data on healthcare utilization were obtained from an original survey, hospital records and questionnaires. The number of deaths was extracted from the global burden diseases study (GBD). The human capital approach was applied to estimate the costs of morbidity and mortality due to smoking-related diseases, classified as direct (hospitalization, outpatients and non-medical costs) and indirect (mortality and morbidity). Results: The total economic cost of the three most common smoking-attributable diseases in Iran was US$1.46 billion in 2014, including US$1.05 billion (71.7%) in indirect and US$0.41 billion (28.3%) in direct costs. Direct costs of the three smoking-related diseases accounted for 1.6% of total healthcare expenditures and total costs were about 0.26% of Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014. Conclusions: Our study indicated that smoking places a substantial economic burden on Iranian society. Therefore, sustained smoking cessation interventions and tobacco control policies are required to reduce the magnitude and extent of smoking-attributable costs in Iran. PMID:29072438

Longitudinal analyses of correlated response efficiencies of fillet traits in Nile tilapia.

PubMed

Turra, E M; Fernandes, A F A; de Alvarenga, E R; Teixeira, E A; Alves, G F O; Manduca, L G; Murphy, T W; Silva, M A

2018-03-01

Recent studies with Nile tilapia have shown divergent results regarding the possibility of selecting on morphometric measurements to promote indirect genetic gains in fillet yield (FY). The use of indirect selection for fillet traits is important as these traits are only measurable after harvesting. Random regression models are a powerful tool in association studies to identify the best time point to measure and select animals. Random regression models can also be applied in a multiple trait approach to analyze indirect response to selection, which would avoid the need to sacrifice candidate fish. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the genetic relationships between several body measurements, weight and fillet traits throughout the growth period and to evaluate the possibility of indirect selection for fillet traits in Nile tilapia. Data were collected from 2042 fish and was divided into two subsets. The first subset was used to estimate genetic parameters, including the permanent environmental effect for BW and body measurements (8758 records for each body measurement, as each fish was individually weighed and measured a maximum of six times). The second subset (2042 records for each trait) was used to estimate genetic correlations and heritabilities, which enabled the calculation of correlated response efficiencies between body measurements and the fillet traits. Heritability estimates across ages ranged from 0.05 to 0.5 for height, 0.02 to 0.48 for corrected length (CL), 0.05 to 0.68 for width, 0.08 to 0.57 for fillet weight (FW) and 0.12 to 0.42 for FY. All genetic correlation estimates between body measurements and FW were positive and strong (0.64 to 0.98). The estimates of genetic correlation between body measurements and FY were positive (except for CL at some ages), but weak to moderate (-0.08 to 0.68). These estimates resulted in strong and favorable correlated response efficiencies for FW and positive, but moderate for FY. These results indicate the possibility of achieving indirect genetic gains for FW and by selecting for morphometric traits, but low efficiency for FY when compared with direct selection.

A multiple mediator analysis approach to quantify the effects of the ADH1B and ALDH2 genes on hepatocellular carcinoma risk.

PubMed

Shih, Stephannie; Huang, Yen-Tsung; Yang, Hwai-I

2018-06-01

Previous work suggested a genetic component affecting the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mediation analyses have elucidated potential indirect pathways of these genetic effects. Specifically, the effects of alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH1B) and aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH2) genes on HCC risk vary based on alcohol consumption habits. However, alcohol consumption may not be the only mediator in the identified pathway: factors related to alcohol consumption may contribute to the same indirect pathway. Thus, we developed a multimediator model to quantify the genetic effects on HCC risk through sequential dichotomous mediators under the counterfactual framework. Our method provided a closed form formula for the mediation effects through different indirect paths, which requires no assumption for the rarity of outcome. In simulation studies of a finite sample, we presented the utility of the method with the variance of the effects estimated using the delta method and bootstrapping. We applied our method to data from participants in Taiwan (580 cases and 3,207 controls) and quantified the mediation effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the ADH1B and ALDH2 genes on HCC through alcohol consumption (yes/no) and high alanine transaminase (ALT) levels (greater than or equal to 45 U/L or below 45 U/L). Assuming a dominant risk model, we identified that the SNPs' effects through alcohol consumption is more significant than through ALT levels on HCC risk. This new method provides insight to the magnitude of various casual mechanisms as a closed form solution and can be readily applied in other genomic studies. © 2018 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Direct and indirect predictions of enteric methane daily production, yield, and intensity per unit of milk and cheese, from fatty acids and milk Fourier-transform infrared spectra.

PubMed

Bittante, Giovanni; Cipolat-Gotet, Claudio

2018-05-23

Mitigating the dairy chain's contribution to climate change requires cheap, rapid methods of predicting enteric CH 4 emissions (EME) of dairy cows in the field. Such methods may also be useful for genetically improving cows to reduce EME. Our objective was to evaluate different procedures for predicting EME traits from infrared spectra of milk samples taken at routine milk recording of cows. As a reference method, we used EME traits estimated from published equations developed from a meta-analysis of data from respiration chambers through analysis of various fatty acids in milk fat by gas chromatography (FA GC ). We analyzed individual milk samples of 1,150 Brown Swiss cows from 85 farms operating different dairy systems (from very traditional to modern), and obtained the cheese yields of individual model cheeses from these samples. We also obtained Fourier-transform infrared absorbance spectra on 1,060 wavelengths (5,000 to 930 waves/cm) from the same samples. Five reference enteric CH 4 traits were calculated: CH 4 yield (CH 4 /DMI, g/kg) per unit of dry matter intake (DMI), and CH 4 intensity (CH 4 /CM, g/kg) per unit of corrected milk (CM) from the FA GC profiles; CH 4 intensity per unit of fresh cheese (CH 4 /CY CURD , g/kg) and cheese solids (CH 4 /CY SOLIDS , g/kg) from individual cheese yields (CY); and daily CH 4 production (dCH 4 , g/d). Direct infrared (IR) calibrations were obtained by BayesB modeling; the determination coefficients of cross-validation varied from 0.36 for dCH 4 to 0.57 for CH 4 /CM, and were similar to the coefficient of determination values of the equations based on FA GC used as the reference method (0.47 for CH 4 /DMI and 0.54 for CH 4 /CM). The models allowed us to select the most informative wavelengths for each EME trait and to infer the milk chemical features underlying the predictions. Aside from the 5 direct infrared prediction calibrations, we tested another 8 indirect prediction models. Using IR-predicted informative fatty acids (FA IR ) instead of FA GC , we were able to obtain indirect predictions with about the same precision (correlation with reference values) as direct IR predictions of CH 4 /DMI (0.78 vs. 0.76, respectively) and CH 4 /CM (0.82 vs. 0.83). The indirect EME predictions based on IR-predicted CY were less precise than the direct IR predictions of both CH 4 /CY CURD (0.67 vs. 0.81) and CH 4 /CY SOLIDS (0.62 vs. 0.78). Four indirect dCH 4 predictions were obtained by multiplying the measured or IR-predicted daily CM production by the direct or indirect CH 4 /CM. Combining recorded daily CM and predicted CH 4 /CM greatly increased precision over direct dCH 4 predictions (0.96-0.96 vs. 0.68). The estimates obtained from the majority of direct and indirect IR-based prediction models exhibited herd and individual cow variability and effects of the main sources of variation (dairy system, parity, days in milk) similar to the reference data. Some rapid, cheap, direct and indirect IR prediction models appear to be useful for monitoring EME in the field and possibly for genetic/genomic selection, but future studies directly measuring CH 4 with different breeds and dairy systems are needed to validate our findings. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic inequality in health in the British household panel: Tests of the social causation, health selection and the indirect selection hypothesis using dynamic fixed effects panel models.

PubMed

Foverskov, Else; Holm, Anders

2016-02-01

Despite social inequality in health being well documented, it is still debated which causal mechanism best explains the negative association between socioeconomic position (SEP) and health. This paper is concerned with testing the explanatory power of three widely proposed causal explanations for social inequality in health in adulthood: the social causation hypothesis (SEP determines health), the health selection hypothesis (health determines SEP) and the indirect selection hypothesis (no causal relationship). We employ dynamic data of respondents aged 30 to 60 from the last nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey. Household income and location on the Cambridge Scale is included as measures of different dimensions of SEP and health is measured as a latent factor score. The causal hypotheses are tested using a time-based Granger approach by estimating dynamic fixed effects panel regression models following the method suggested by Anderson and Hsiao. We propose using this method to estimate the associations over time since it allows one to control for all unobserved time-invariant factors and hence lower the chances of biased estimates due to unobserved heterogeneity. The results showed no proof of the social causation hypothesis over a one to five year period and limited support for the health selection hypothesis was seen only for men in relation to HH income. These findings were robust in multiple sensitivity analysis. We conclude that the indirect selection hypothesis may be the most important in explaining social inequality in health in adulthood, indicating that the well-known cross-sectional correlations between health and SEP in adulthood seem not to be driven by a causal relationship, but instead by dynamics and influences in place before the respondents turn 30 years old that affect both their health and SEP onwards. The conclusion is limited in that we do not consider the effect of specific diseases and causal relationships in adulthood may be present over a longer timespan than 5 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Echocardiographic estimation of systemic systolic blood pressure in dogs with mild mitral regurgitation.

PubMed

Tou, Sandra P; Adin, Darcy B; Estrada, Amara H

2006-01-01

Systemic hypertension is likely underdiagnosed in veterinary medicine because systemic blood pressure is rarely measured. Systemic blood pressure can theoretically be estimated by echocardiography. According to the modified Bernoulli equation (PG = 4v(2)), mitral regurgitation (MR) velocity should approximate systolic left ventricular pressure (sLVP), and therefore systolic systemic blood pressure (sSBP) in the presence of a normal left atrial pressure (LAP) and the absence of aortic stenosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of echocardiography to estimate sSBP by means of the Bernoulli equation. Systemic blood pressure can be estimated by echocardiography. Seventeen dogs with mild MR. No dogs had aortic or subaortic stenosis, and all had MR with a clear continuous-wave Doppler signal and a left atrial to aorta ratio of < or = 1.6. Five simultaneous, blinded continuous-wave measurements of maximum MR velocity (Vmax) and indirect sSBP measurements (by Park's Doppler) were obtained for each dog. Pressure gradient was calculated from Vmax by means of the Bernoulli equation, averaged, and added to an assumed LAP of 8 mm Hg to calculate sLVP. Calculated sLVP was significantly correlated with indirectly measured sSBP within a range of 121 to 218 mm Hg (P = .0002, r = .78). Mean +/- SD bias was 0.1 +/- 15.3 mm Hg with limits of agreement of -29.9 to 30.1 mm Hg. Despite the significant correlation, the wide limits of agreement between the methods hinder the clinical utility of echocardiographic estimation of blood pressure.

Mortality in Iraq Associated with the 2003–2011 War and Occupation: Findings from a National Cluster Sample Survey by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study

PubMed Central

Hagopian, Amy; Flaxman, Abraham D.; Takaro, Tim K.; Esa Al Shatari, Sahar A.; Rajaratnam, Julie; Becker, Stan; Levin-Rector, Alison; Galway, Lindsay; Hadi Al-Yasseri, Berq J.; Weiss, William M.; Murray, Christopher J.; Burnham, Gilbert

2013-01-01

Background Previous estimates of mortality in Iraq attributable to the 2003 invasion have been heterogeneous and controversial, and none were produced after 2006. The purpose of this research was to estimate direct and indirect deaths attributable to the war in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. Methods and Findings We conducted a survey of 2,000 randomly selected households throughout Iraq, using a two-stage cluster sampling method to ensure the sample of households was nationally representative. We asked every household head about births and deaths since 2001, and all household adults about mortality among their siblings. We used secondary data sources to correct for out-migration. From March 1, 2003, to June 30, 2011, the crude death rate in Iraq was 4.55 per 1,000 person-years (95% uncertainty interval 3.74–5.27), more than 0.5 times higher than the death rate during the 26-mo period preceding the war, resulting in approximately 405,000 (95% uncertainty interval 48,000–751,000) excess deaths attributable to the conflict. Among adults, the risk of death rose 0.7 times higher for women and 2.9 times higher for men between the pre-war period (January 1, 2001, to February 28, 2003) and the peak of the war (2005–2006). We estimate that more than 60% of excess deaths were directly attributable to violence, with the rest associated with the collapse of infrastructure and other indirect, but war-related, causes. We used secondary sources to estimate rates of death among emigrants. Those estimates suggest we missed at least 55,000 deaths that would have been reported by households had the households remained behind in Iraq, but which instead had migrated away. Only 24 households refused to participate in the study. An additional five households were not interviewed because of hostile or threatening behavior, for a 98.55% response rate. The reliance on outdated census data and the long recall period required of participants are limitations of our study. Conclusions Beyond expected rates, most mortality increases in Iraq can be attributed to direct violence, but about a third are attributable to indirect causes (such as from failures of health, sanitation, transportation, communication, and other systems). Approximately a half million deaths in Iraq could be attributable to the war. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24143140

Comparison of predictive equations for resting metabolic rate in healthy nonobese and obese adults: a systematic review.

PubMed

Frankenfield, David; Roth-Yousey, Lori; Compher, Charlene

2005-05-01

An assessment of energy needs is a necessary component in the development and evaluation of a nutrition care plan. The metabolic rate can be measured or estimated by equations, but estimation is by far the more common method. However, predictive equations might generate errors large enough to impact outcome. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature was undertaken to document the accuracy of predictive equations preliminary to deciding on the imperative to measure metabolic rate. As part of a larger project to determine the role of indirect calorimetry in clinical practice, an evidence team identified published articles that examined the validity of various predictive equations for resting metabolic rate (RMR) in nonobese and obese people and also in individuals of various ethnic and age groups. Articles were accepted based on defined criteria and abstracted using evidence analysis tools developed by the American Dietetic Association. Because these equations are applied by dietetics practitioners to individuals, a key inclusion criterion was research reports of individual data. The evidence was systematically evaluated, and a conclusion statement and grade were developed. Four prediction equations were identified as the most commonly used in clinical practice (Harris-Benedict, Mifflin-St Jeor, Owen, and World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization/United Nations University [WHO/FAO/UNU]). Of these equations, the Mifflin-St Jeor equation was the most reliable, predicting RMR within 10% of measured in more nonobese and obese individuals than any other equation, and it also had the narrowest error range. No validation work concentrating on individual errors was found for the WHO/FAO/UNU equation. Older adults and US-residing ethnic minorities were underrepresented both in the development of predictive equations and in validation studies. The Mifflin-St Jeor equation is more likely than the other equations tested to estimate RMR to within 10% of that measured, but noteworthy errors and limitations exist when it is applied to individuals and possibly when it is generalized to certain age and ethnic groups. RMR estimation errors would be eliminated by valid measurement of RMR with indirect calorimetry, using an evidence-based protocol to minimize measurement error. The Expert Panel advises clinical judgment regarding when to accept estimated RMR using predictive equations in any given individual. Indirect calorimetry may be an important tool when, in the judgment of the clinician, the predictive methods fail an individual in a clinically relevant way. For members of groups that are greatly underrepresented by existing validation studies of predictive equations, a high level of suspicion regarding the accuracy of the equations is warranted.

Detecting Nano-Scale Vibrations in Rotating Devices by Using Advanced Computational Methods

PubMed Central

del Toro, Raúl M.; Haber, Rodolfo E.; Schmittdiel, Michael C.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a computational method for detecting vibrations related to eccentricity in ultra precision rotation devices used for nano-scale manufacturing. The vibration is indirectly measured via a frequency domain analysis of the signal from a piezoelectric sensor attached to the stationary component of the rotating device. The algorithm searches for particular harmonic sequences associated with the eccentricity of the device rotation axis. The detected sequence is quantified and serves as input to a regression model that estimates the eccentricity. A case study presents the application of the computational algorithm during precision manufacturing processes. PMID:22399918

The Effect of Long-Term Therapeutics, Prophylaxis and Screening Techniques on Aircrew Medical Standards.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-03-01

percentage of fat , maximal aerobic power, serum concentrations of triglycerides, total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol. This information is obtained fr-m each...drinkinq and physical activity related to health parameters su-h as wei ,iht , body fat content, maximal aerobic T1ewer and serum concentrations of...subjects, and the body fat is estimated from the body density (4). 3. The maximal aerobic power is assessed indirectly according to the method of Astrand

Multilocus approaches for the measurement of selection on correlated genetic loci.

PubMed

Gompert, Zachariah; Egan, Scott P; Barrett, Rowan D H; Feder, Jeffrey L; Nosil, Patrik

2017-01-01

The study of ecological speciation is inherently linked to the study of selection. Methods for estimating phenotypic selection within a generation based on associations between trait values and fitness (e.g. survival) of individuals are established. These methods attempt to disentangle selection acting directly on a trait from indirect selection caused by correlations with other traits via multivariate statistical approaches (i.e. inference of selection gradients). The estimation of selection on genotypic or genomic variation could also benefit from disentangling direct and indirect selection on genetic loci. However, achieving this goal is difficult with genomic data because the number of potentially correlated genetic loci (p) is very large relative to the number of individuals sampled (n). In other words, the number of model parameters exceeds the number of observations (p ≫ n). We present simulations examining the utility of whole-genome regression approaches (i.e. Bayesian sparse linear mixed models) for quantifying direct selection in cases where p ≫ n. Such models have been used for genome-wide association mapping and are common in artificial breeding. Our results show they hold promise for studies of natural selection in the wild and thus of ecological speciation. But we also demonstrate important limitations to the approach and discuss study designs required for more robust inferences. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A novel fluorescence microscopy approach to estimate quality loss of stored fruit fillings as a result of browning.

PubMed

Cropotova, Janna; Tylewicz, Urszula; Cocci, Emiliano; Romani, Santina; Dalla Rosa, Marco

2016-03-01

The aim of the present study was to estimate the quality deterioration of apple fillings during storage. Moreover, a potentiality of novel time-saving and non-invasive method based on fluorescence microscopy for prompt ascertainment of non-enzymatic browning initiation in fruit fillings was investigated. Apple filling samples were obtained by mixing different quantities of fruit and stabilizing agents (inulin, pectin and gellan gum), thermally processed and stored for 6-month. The preservation of antioxidant capacity (determined by DPPH method) in apple fillings was indirectly correlated with decrease in total polyphenols content that varied from 34±22 to 56±17% and concomitant accumulation of 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF), ranging from 3.4±0.1 to 8±1mg/kg in comparison to initial apple puree values. The mean intensity of the fluorescence emission spectra of apple filling samples and initial apple puree was highly correlated (R(2)>0.95) with the HMF content, showing a good potentiality of fluorescence microscopy method to estimate non-enzymatic browning. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tutorial in Biostatistics: Instrumental Variable Methods for Causal Inference*

PubMed Central

Baiocchi, Michael; Cheng, Jing; Small, Dylan S.

2014-01-01

A goal of many health studies is to determine the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on health outcomes. Often, it is not ethically or practically possible to conduct a perfectly randomized experiment and instead an observational study must be used. A major challenge to the validity of observational studies is the possibility of unmeasured confounding (i.e., unmeasured ways in which the treatment and control groups differ before treatment administration which also affect the outcome). Instrumental variables analysis is a method for controlling for unmeasured confounding. This type of analysis requires the measurement of a valid instrumental variable, which is a variable that (i) is independent of the unmeasured confounding; (ii) affects the treatment; and (iii) affects the outcome only indirectly through its effect on the treatment. This tutorial discusses the types of causal effects that can be estimated by instrumental variables analysis; the assumptions needed for instrumental variables analysis to provide valid estimates of causal effects and sensitivity analysis for those assumptions; methods of estimation of causal effects using instrumental variables; and sources of instrumental variables in health studies. PMID:24599889

Quantifying the Accuracy of Digital Hemispherical Photography for Leaf Area Index Estimates on Broad-Leaved Tree Species.

PubMed

Gilardelli, Carlo; Orlando, Francesca; Movedi, Ermes; Confalonieri, Roberto

2018-03-29

Digital hemispherical photography (DHP) has been widely used to estimate leaf area index (LAI) in forestry. Despite the advancement in the processing of hemispherical images with dedicated tools, several steps are still manual and thus easily affected by user's experience and sensibility. The purpose of this study was to quantify the impact of user's subjectivity on DHP LAI estimates for broad-leaved woody canopies using the software Can-Eye. Following the ISO 5725 protocol, we quantified the repeatability and reproducibility of the method, thus defining its precision for a wide range of broad-leaved canopies markedly differing for their structure. To get a complete evaluation of the method accuracy, we also quantified its trueness using artificial canopy images with known canopy cover. Moreover, the effect of the segmentation method was analysed. The best results for precision (restrained limits of repeatability and reproducibility) were obtained for high LAI values (>5) with limits corresponding to a variation of 22% in the estimated LAI values. Poorer results were obtained for medium and low LAI values, with a variation of the estimated LAI values that exceeded the 40%. Regardless of the LAI range explored, satisfactory results were achieved for trees in row-structured plantations (limits almost equal to the 30% of the estimated LAI). Satisfactory results were achieved for trueness, regardless of the canopy structure. The paired t -test revealed that the effect of the segmentation method on LAI estimates was significant. Despite a non-negligible user effect, the accuracy metrics for DHP are consistent with those determined for other indirect methods for LAI estimates, confirming the overall reliability of DHP in broad-leaved woody canopies.

Quantifying the Accuracy of Digital Hemispherical Photography for Leaf Area Index Estimates on Broad-Leaved Tree Species

PubMed Central

Gilardelli, Carlo; Orlando, Francesca; Movedi, Ermes; Confalonieri, Roberto

2018-01-01

Digital hemispherical photography (DHP) has been widely used to estimate leaf area index (LAI) in forestry. Despite the advancement in the processing of hemispherical images with dedicated tools, several steps are still manual and thus easily affected by user’s experience and sensibility. The purpose of this study was to quantify the impact of user’s subjectivity on DHP LAI estimates for broad-leaved woody canopies using the software Can-Eye. Following the ISO 5725 protocol, we quantified the repeatability and reproducibility of the method, thus defining its precision for a wide range of broad-leaved canopies markedly differing for their structure. To get a complete evaluation of the method accuracy, we also quantified its trueness using artificial canopy images with known canopy cover. Moreover, the effect of the segmentation method was analysed. The best results for precision (restrained limits of repeatability and reproducibility) were obtained for high LAI values (>5) with limits corresponding to a variation of 22% in the estimated LAI values. Poorer results were obtained for medium and low LAI values, with a variation of the estimated LAI values that exceeded the 40%. Regardless of the LAI range explored, satisfactory results were achieved for trees in row-structured plantations (limits almost equal to the 30% of the estimated LAI). Satisfactory results were achieved for trueness, regardless of the canopy structure. The paired t-test revealed that the effect of the segmentation method on LAI estimates was significant. Despite a non-negligible user effect, the accuracy metrics for DHP are consistent with those determined for other indirect methods for LAI estimates, confirming the overall reliability of DHP in broad-leaved woody canopies. PMID:29596376

Direct and Indirect Costs of Asthma Management in Greece: An Expert Panel Approach.

PubMed

Souliotis, Kyriakos; Kousoulakou, Hara; Hillas, Georgios; Bakakos, Petros; Toumbis, Michalis; Loukides, Stelios; Vassilakopoulos, Theodoros

2017-01-01

Asthma is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and is associated with significant economic burden worldwide. The objectives of this study were to map current resource use associated with the disease management and to estimate the annual direct and indirect costs per adult patient with asthma. A Delphi panel with seven leading pulmonologists was conducted. A semistructured questionnaire was developed to elicit data on resource use and treatment patterns. Unit costs from official, published sources were subsequently assigned to resource use to estimate direct medical costs. Indirect costs were estimated as number of work loss days. Cost base year was 2015, and the perspective adopted was that of the National Organization of Health Care Services Provision, as well as the societal. Patients with asthma are mainly managed by pulmonologists (71.4%) and secondarily by general practitioners and internists (28.6%). The annual cost of managing exacerbations was estimated at €273.1, while maintenance costs were estimated at €1,100.2 per year. Total costs of managing asthma per patient per year were estimated at €2,281.8, 64.4% of which represented direct medical costs. Of the direct costs, pharmaceutical treatment was the key driver, accounting for 63.9 and 41.2% of direct and total costs, respectively. Direct non-medical costs (patient travel and waiting time) were estimated at €152.3. Indirect costs accounted for 28.9% of total costs. Asthma is a chronic condition, the management of which constrains the already limited Greek health care resources. The increasing prevalence of the disease raises concerns as it could translate per patient costs into a significant burden for the Greek health care system. Thus, the prevention, self-management, and improved quality of care for asthma should find a place in the health policy agenda in Greece.

Mediation misgivings: ambiguous clinical and public health interpretations of natural direct and indirect effects.

PubMed

Naimi, Ashley I; Kaufman, Jay S; MacLehose, Richard F

2014-10-01

Recent methodological innovation is giving rise to an increasing number of applied papers in medical and epidemiological journals in which natural direct and indirect effects are estimated. However, there is a longstanding debate on whether such effects are relevant targets of inference in population health. In light of the repeated calls for a more pragmatic and consequential epidemiology, we review three issues often raised in this debate: (i) the use of composite cross-world counterfactuals and the need for cross-world independence assumptions; (ii) interventional vs non-interventional identifiability; and (iii) the interpretational ambiguity of natural direct and indirect effect estimates. We use potential outcomes notation and directed acyclic graphs to explain 'cross-world' assumptions, illustrate implications of this assumption via regression models and discuss ensuing issues of interpretation. We argue that the debate on the relevance of natural direct and indirect effects rests on whether one takes as a target of inference the mathematical object per se, or the change in the world that the mathematical object represents. We further note that public health questions may be better served by estimating controlled direct effects. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Fast myopic 2D-SIM super resolution microscopy with joint modulation pattern estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orieux, François; Loriette, Vincent; Olivo-Marin, Jean-Christophe; Sepulveda, Eduardo; Fragola, Alexandra

2017-12-01

Super-resolution in structured illumination microscopy (SIM) is obtained through de-aliasing of modulated raw images, in which high frequencies are measured indirectly inside the optical transfer function. Usual approaches that use 9 or 15 images are often too slow for dynamic studies. Moreover, as experimental conditions change with time, modulation parameters must be estimated within the images. This paper tackles the problem of image reconstruction for fast super resolution in SIM, where the number of available raw images is reduced to four instead of nine or fifteen. Within an optimization framework, the solution is inferred via a joint myopic criterion for image and modulation (or acquisition) parameters, leading to what is frequently called a myopic or semi-blind inversion problem. The estimate is chosen as the minimizer of the nonlinear criterion, numerically calculated by means of a block coordinate optimization algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated for simulated and experimental examples. The results show precise estimation of the modulation parameters jointly with the reconstruction of the super resolution image. The method also shows its effectiveness for thick biological samples.

Cooperative Robot Localization Using Event-Triggered Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias Echevarria, David I.

It is known that multiple robot systems that need to cooperate to perform certain activities or tasks incur in high energy costs that hinder their autonomous functioning and limit the benefits provided to humans by these kinds of platforms. This work presents a communications-based method for cooperative robot localization. Implementing concepts from event-triggered estimation, used with success in the field of wireless sensor networks but rarely to do robot localization, agents are able to only send measurements to their neighbors when the expected novelty in this information is high. Since all agents know the condition that triggers a measurement to be sent or not, the lack of a measurement is therefore informative and fused into state estimates. In the case agents do not receive either direct nor indirect measurements of all others, the agents employ a covariance intersection fusion rule in order to keep the local covariance error metric bounded. A comprehensive analysis of the proposed algorithm and its estimation performance in a variety of scenarios is performed, and the algorithm is compared to similar cooperative localization approaches. Extensive simulations are performed that illustrate the effectiveness of this method.

An engineering method for estimating notch-size effect in fatigue tests on steel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuhn, Paul; Hardrath, Herbert F

1952-01-01

Neuber's proposed method of calculating a practical factor of stress concentration for parts containing notches of arbitrary size depends on the knowledge of a "new material constant" which can be established only indirectly. In this paper, the new constant has been evaluated for a large variety of steels from fatigue tests reported in the literature, attention being confined to stresses near the endurance limit. Reasonably satisfactory results were obtained with the assumption that the constant depends only on the tensile strength of the steel. Even in cases where the notches were cracks of which only the depth was known, reasonably satisfactory agreement was found between calculated and experimental factors. It is also shown that the material constant can be used in an empirical formula to estimate the size effect on unnotched specimens tested in bending fatigue.

Analytic variance estimates of Swank and Fano factors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gutierrez, Benjamin; Badano, Aldo; Samuelson, Frank, E-mail: frank.samuelson@fda.hhs.gov

Purpose: Variance estimates for detector energy resolution metrics can be used as stopping criteria in Monte Carlo simulations for the purpose of ensuring a small uncertainty of those metrics and for the design of variance reduction techniques. Methods: The authors derive an estimate for the variance of two energy resolution metrics, the Swank factor and the Fano factor, in terms of statistical moments that can be accumulated without significant computational overhead. The authors examine the accuracy of these two estimators and demonstrate how the estimates of the coefficient of variation of the Swank and Fano factors behave with data frommore » a Monte Carlo simulation of an indirect x-ray imaging detector. Results: The authors' analyses suggest that the accuracy of their variance estimators is appropriate for estimating the actual variances of the Swank and Fano factors for a variety of distributions of detector outputs. Conclusions: The variance estimators derived in this work provide a computationally convenient way to estimate the error or coefficient of variation of the Swank and Fano factors during Monte Carlo simulations of radiation imaging systems.« less

Direct and indirect genetic and fine-scale location effects on breeding date in song sparrows.

PubMed

Germain, Ryan R; Wolak, Matthew E; Arcese, Peter; Losdat, Sylvain; Reid, Jane M

2016-11-01

Quantifying direct and indirect genetic effects of interacting females and males on variation in jointly expressed life-history traits is central to predicting microevolutionary dynamics. However, accurately estimating sex-specific additive genetic variances in such traits remains difficult in wild populations, especially if related individuals inhabit similar fine-scale environments. Breeding date is a key life-history trait that responds to environmental phenology and mediates individual and population responses to environmental change. However, no studies have estimated female (direct) and male (indirect) additive genetic and inbreeding effects on breeding date, and estimated the cross-sex genetic correlation, while simultaneously accounting for fine-scale environmental effects of breeding locations, impeding prediction of microevolutionary dynamics. We fitted animal models to 38 years of song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) phenology and pedigree data to estimate sex-specific additive genetic variances in breeding date, and the cross-sex genetic correlation, thereby estimating the total additive genetic variance while simultaneously estimating sex-specific inbreeding depression. We further fitted three forms of spatial animal model to explicitly estimate variance in breeding date attributable to breeding location, overlap among breeding locations and spatial autocorrelation. We thereby quantified fine-scale location variances in breeding date and quantified the degree to which estimating such variances affected the estimated additive genetic variances. The non-spatial animal model estimated nonzero female and male additive genetic variances in breeding date (sex-specific heritabilities: 0·07 and 0·02, respectively) and a strong, positive cross-sex genetic correlation (0·99), creating substantial total additive genetic variance (0·18). Breeding date varied with female, but not male inbreeding coefficient, revealing direct, but not indirect, inbreeding depression. All three spatial animal models estimated small location variance in breeding date, but because relatedness and breeding location were virtually uncorrelated, modelling location variance did not alter the estimated additive genetic variances. Our results show that sex-specific additive genetic effects on breeding date can be strongly positively correlated, which would affect any predicted rates of microevolutionary change in response to sexually antagonistic or congruent selection. Further, we show that inbreeding effects on breeding date can also be sex specific and that genetic effects can exceed phenotypic variation stemming from fine-scale location-based variation within a wild population. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Variability in spectrophotometric pyruvate analyses for predicting onion pungency and nutraceutical value.

PubMed

Beretta, Vanesa H; Bannoud, Florencia; Insani, Marina; Galmarini, Claudio R; Cavagnaro, Pablo F

2017-06-01

Onion pyruvate concentration is used as a predictor of flavor intensity and nutraceutical value. The protocol of Schwimmer and Weston (SW) (1961) is the most widespread methodology for estimating onion pyruvate. Anthon and Barret (AB) (2003) proposed modifications to this procedure. Here, we compared these spectrophotometry-based procedures for pyruvate analysis using a diverse collection of onion cultivars. The SW method always led to over-estimation of pyruvate levels in colored, but not in white onions, by up to 65%. Identification of light-absorbance interfering compounds was performed by spectrophotometry and HPLC analysis. Interference by quercetin and anthocyanins, jointly, accounted for more than 90% of the over-estimation of pyruvate. Pyruvate determinations according to AB significantly reduced absorbance interference from compounds other than pyruvate. This study provides evidence about the mechanistic basis underlying differences between the SW and AB methods for indirect assessment of onion flavor and nutraceutical value. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of Indirect Effects in a Cognitive Patient Education (COPE) Intervention for Low Back Pain.

PubMed

Mansell, Gemma; Storheim, Kjersti; Løchting, Ida; Werner, Erik L; Grotle, Margreth

2017-12-01

Many interventions for the treatment of low back pain exist, but the mechanisms through which such treatments work are not always clear. This situation is especially true for biopsychosocial interventions that incorporate several different components and methods of delivery. The study objective was to examine the indirect effects of the Cognitive Patient Education (COPE) intervention via illness perceptions, back pain myths, and pain catastrophizing on disability outcome. This study was a secondary analysis of the COPE randomized controlled trial. Mediation analysis techniques were employed to examine the indirect effects of the COPE intervention via residualized change (baseline - posttreatment) in the 3 variables hypothesized to be targeted by the COPE intervention on posttreatment disability outcome. Pain intensity at baseline, pain duration, clinician type, and a treatment-mediator interaction term were controlled for in the analysis. Preliminary analyses confirmed that changes in pain catastrophizing and illness perceptions (not back pain myths) were related to both allocation to the intervention arm and posttreatment disability score. The treatment exerted statistically significant indirect effects via changes in illness perceptions and pain catastrophizing on posttreatment disability score (illness perceptions standardized indirect effect = 0.09 [95% CI = 0.03 to 0.16]; pain catastrophizing standardized indirect effect = 0.05 [95% CI = 0.01 to 0.12]). However, the inclusion of an interaction term led to the indirect effects being significantly reduced, with the effects no longer being statistically significant. This study presents a secondary analysis of variables not identified a priori as being potentially important treatment targets; other, unmeasured factors could also be important in explaining treatment effects. The finding that small indirect effects of the COPE intervention via changes in illness perceptions and pain catastrophizing on posttreatment disability could be estimated indicates that these variables may be viable treatment targets for biopsychosocial interventions; however, this finding must be viewed in light of the adjusted analyses, which showed that the indirect effects were significantly reduced through the inclusion of a treatment-mediator interaction term. © Crown copyright 2015

Direct, indirect and intangible costs of acute hand and wrist injuries: A systematic review.

PubMed

Robinson, Luke Steven; Sarkies, Mitchell; Brown, Ted; O'Brien, Lisa

2016-12-01

Injuries sustained to the hand and wrist are common, accounting for 20% of all emergency presentations. The economic burden of these injuries, comprised of direct (medical expenses incurred), indirect (value of lost productivity) and intangible costs, can be extensive and rise sharply with the increase of severity. This paper systematically reviews cost-of-illness studies and health economic evaluations of acute hand and wrist injuries with a particular focus on direct, indirect and intangible costs. It aims to provide economic cost estimates of burden and discuss the cost components used in international literature. A search of cost-of-illness studies and health economic evaluations of acute hand and wrist injuries in various databases was conducted. Data extracted for each included study were: design, population, intervention, and estimates and measurement methodologies of direct, indirect and intangible costs. Reported costs were converted into US-dollars using historical exchange rates and then adjusted into 2015 US-dollars using an inflation calculator RESULTS: The search yielded 764 studies, of which 21 met the inclusion criteria. Twelve studies were cost-of-illness studies, and seven were health economic evaluations. The methodology used to derive direct, indirect and intangible costs differed markedly across all studies. Indirect costs represented a large portion of total cost in both cost-of-illness studies [64.5% (IQR 50.75-88.25)] and health economic evaluations [68% (IQR 49.25-73.5)]. The median total cost per case of all injury types was US$6951 (IQR $3357-$22,274) for cost-of-illness studies and US$8297 (IQR $3858-$33,939) for health economic evaluations. Few studies reported intangible cost data associated with acute hand and wrist injuries. Several studies have attempted to estimate the direct, indirect and intangible costs associated with acute hand and wrist injuries in various countries using heterogeneous methodologies. Estimates of the economic costs of different acute hand and wrist injuries varied greatly depending on the study methodology, however, by any standards, these injuries should be considered a substantial burden on the individual and society. Further research using standardised methodologies could provide guidance to relevant policy makers on how to best distribute limited resources by identifying the major disorders and exposures resulting in the largest burden. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaporation estimates from the Dead Sea and their implications on its water balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oroud, Ibrahim M.

2011-12-01

The Dead Sea (DS) is a terminal hypersaline water body situated in the deepest part of the Jordan Valley. There is a growing interest in linking the DS to the open seas due to severe water shortages in the area and the serious geological and environmental hazards to its vicinity caused by the rapid level drop of the DS. A key issue in linking the DS with the open seas would be an accurate determination of evaporation rates. There exist large uncertainties of evaporation estimates from the DS due to the complex feedback mechanisms between meteorological forcings and thermophysical properties of hypersaline solutions. Numerous methods have been used to estimate current and historical (pre-1960) evaporation rates, with estimates differing by ˜100%. Evaporation from the DS is usually deduced indirectly using energy, water balance, or pan methods with uncertainty in many parameters. Accumulated errors resulting from these uncertainties are usually pooled into the estimates of evaporation rates. In this paper, a physically based method with minimum empirical parameters is used to evaluate historical and current evaporation estimates from the DS. The more likely figures for historical and current evaporation rates from the DS were 1,500-1,600 and 1,200-1,250 mm per annum, respectively. Results obtained are congruent with field observations and with more elaborate procedures.

High-strain rate tensile characterization of graphite platelet reinforced vinyl ester based nanocomposites using split-Hopkinson pressure bar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pramanik, Brahmananda

The dynamic response of exfoliated graphite nanoplatelet (xGnP) reinforced and carboxyl terminated butadiene nitrile (CTBN) toughened vinyl ester based nanocomposites are characterized under both dynamic tensile and compressive loading. Dynamic direct tensile tests are performed applying the reverse impact Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB) technique. The specimen geometry for tensile test is parametrically optimized by Finite Element Analysis (FEA) using ANSYS Mechanical APDLRTM. Uniform stress distribution within the specimen gage length has been verified using high-speed digital photography. The on-specimen strain gage installation is substituted by a non-contact Laser Occlusion Expansion Gage (LOEG) technique for infinitesimal dynamic tensile strain measurements. Due to very low transmitted pulse signal, an alternative approach based on incident pulse is applied for obtaining the stress-time history. Indirect tensile tests are also performed combining the conventional SHPB technique with Brazilian disk test method for evaluating cylindrical disk specimens. The cylindrical disk specimen is held snugly in between two concave end fixtures attached to the incident and transmission bars. Indirect tensile stress is estimated from the SHPB pulses, and diametrical transverse tensile strain is measured using LOEG. Failure diagnosis using high-speed digital photography validates the viability of utilizing this indirect test method for characterizing the tensile properties of the candidate vinyl ester based nanocomposite system. Also, quasi-static indirect tensile response agrees with previous investigations conducted using the traditional dog-bone specimen in quasi-static direct tensile tests. Investigation of both quasi-static and dynamic indirect tensile test responses show the strain rate effect on the tensile strength and energy absorbing capacity of the candidate materials. Finally, the conventional compressive SHPB tests are performed. It is observed that both strength and energy absorbing capacity of these candidate material systems are distinctively less under dynamic tension than under compressive loading. Nano-reinforcement appears to marginally improve these properties for pure vinyl ester under dynamic tension, although it is found to be detrimental under dynamic compression.

Estimation of tool wear during CNC milling using neural network-based sensor fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, N.; Ravi, Y. B.; Patra, A.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Paul, S.; Mohanty, A. R.; Chattopadhyay, A. B.

2007-01-01

Cutting tool wear degrades the product quality in manufacturing processes. Monitoring tool wear value online is therefore needed to prevent degradation in machining quality. Unfortunately there is no direct way of measuring the tool wear online. Therefore one has to adopt an indirect method wherein the tool wear is estimated from several sensors measuring related process variables. In this work, a neural network-based sensor fusion model has been developed for tool condition monitoring (TCM). Features extracted from a number of machining zone signals, namely cutting forces, spindle vibration, spindle current, and sound pressure level have been fused to estimate the average flank wear of the main cutting edge. Novel strategies such as, signal level segmentation for temporal registration, feature space filtering, outlier removal, and estimation space filtering have been proposed. The proposed approach has been validated by both laboratory and industrial implementations.

Social Cost of Substance Abuse in Russia.

PubMed

Potapchik, Elena; Popovich, Larisa

2014-09-01

To summarize results of studies that estimate the social costs of alcohol, tobacco, and illicit drug abuse in Russia. The purpose of these studies was to inform policymakers about the real economic burden of risky behaviors and to provide conditions for evidence-based and well-informed decision making in this area. The cost-of-illness method was applied to estimate the social cost of substance abuse. The intangible cost was not included in estimation. A prevalence-based approach was applied to estimate the tangible cost. For the estimation of direct costs, a top-down method was used. Indirect costs were estimated using two methods: the human capital and the friction cost. In 2008, the social cost of substance abuse in Russia comprised 677.2 billion rubles if the friction cost method is applied and 1965.9 billion rubles if the human capital method is used. The social cost of substance abuse is defined to the greatest extent by alcohol consumption, comprising about 45% of the economic burden. Illicit drug use comprises about 30% of the economic burden and tobacco consumption 25%. The results of economic studies demonstrated that psychoactive substances impose a considerable economic burden on society. Analysis of the substance abuse social cost pattern shows that the main losses that society bears because of these behavioral risk factors fall outside the health care system and lay in other sectors of the economy such as social care, law enforcement, and productivity losses. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Sample Size by Bootstrap and by Formulas Based on Normal Distribution Assumption.

PubMed

Wang, Zuozhen

2018-01-01

Bootstrapping technique is distribution-independent, which provides an indirect way to estimate the sample size for a clinical trial based on a relatively smaller sample. In this paper, sample size estimation to compare two parallel-design arms for continuous data by bootstrap procedure are presented for various test types (inequality, non-inferiority, superiority, and equivalence), respectively. Meanwhile, sample size calculation by mathematical formulas (normal distribution assumption) for the identical data are also carried out. Consequently, power difference between the two calculation methods is acceptably small for all the test types. It shows that the bootstrap procedure is a credible technique for sample size estimation. After that, we compared the powers determined using the two methods based on data that violate the normal distribution assumption. To accommodate the feature of the data, the nonparametric statistical method of Wilcoxon test was applied to compare the two groups in the data during the process of bootstrap power estimation. As a result, the power estimated by normal distribution-based formula is far larger than that by bootstrap for each specific sample size per group. Hence, for this type of data, it is preferable that the bootstrap method be applied for sample size calculation at the beginning, and that the same statistical method as used in the subsequent statistical analysis is employed for each bootstrap sample during the course of bootstrap sample size estimation, provided there is historical true data available that can be well representative of the population to which the proposed trial is planning to extrapolate.

Novel blood pressure and pulse pressure estimation based on pulse transit time and stroke volume approximation.

PubMed

Lee, Joonnyong; Sohn, JangJay; Park, Jonghyun; Yang, SeungMan; Lee, Saram; Kim, Hee Chan

2018-06-18

Non-invasive continuous blood pressure monitors are of great interest to the medical community due to their value in hypertension management. Recently, studies have shown the potential of pulse pressure as a therapeutic target for hypertension, but not enough attention has been given to non-invasive continuous monitoring of pulse pressure. Although accurate pulse pressure estimation can be of direct value to hypertension management and indirectly to the estimation of systolic blood pressure, as it is the sum of pulse pressure and diastolic blood pressure, only a few inadequate methods of pulse pressure estimation have been proposed. We present a novel, non-invasive blood pressure and pulse pressure estimation method based on pulse transit time and pre-ejection period. Pre-ejection period and pulse transit time were measured non-invasively using electrocardiogram, seismocardiogram, and photoplethysmogram measured from the torso. The proposed method used the 2-element Windkessel model to model pulse pressure with the ratio of stroke volume, approximated by pre-ejection period, and arterial compliance, estimated by pulse transit time. Diastolic blood pressure was estimated using pulse transit time, and systolic blood pressure was estimated as the sum of the two estimates. The estimation method was verified in 11 subjects in two separate conditions with induced cardiovascular response and the results were compared against a reference measurement and values obtained from a previously proposed method. The proposed method yielded high agreement with the reference (pulse pressure correlation with reference R ≥ 0.927, diastolic blood pressure correlation with reference R ≥ 0.854, systolic blood pressure correlation with reference R ≥ 0.914) and high estimation accuracy in pulse pressure (mean root-mean-squared error ≤ 3.46 mmHg) and blood pressure (mean root-mean-squared error ≤ 6.31 mmHg for diastolic blood pressure and ≤ 8.41 mmHg for systolic blood pressure) over a wide range of hemodynamic changes. The proposed pulse pressure estimation method provides accurate estimates in situations with and without significant changes in stroke volume. The proposed method improves upon the currently available systolic blood pressure estimation methods by providing accurate pulse pressure estimates.

Indirect Genetic Effects and the Spread of Infectious Disease: Are We Capturing the Full Heritable Variation Underlying Disease Prevalence?

PubMed Central

Lipschutz-Powell, Debby; Woolliams, John A.; Bijma, Piter; Doeschl-Wilson, Andrea B.

2012-01-01

Reducing disease prevalence through selection for host resistance offers a desirable alternative to chemical treatment. Selection for host resistance has proven difficult, however, due to low heritability estimates. These low estimates may be caused by a failure to capture all the relevant genetic variance in disease resistance, as genetic analysis currently is not taylored to estimate genetic variation in infectivity. Host infectivity is the propensity of transmitting infection upon contact with a susceptible individual, and can be regarded as an indirect effect to disease status. It may be caused by a combination of physiological and behavioural traits. Though genetic variation in infectivity is difficult to measure directly, Indirect Genetic Effect (IGE) models, also referred to as associative effects or social interaction models, allow the estimation of this variance from more readily available binary disease data (infected/non-infected). We therefore generated binary disease data from simulated populations with known amounts of variation in susceptibility and infectivity to test the adequacy of traditional and IGE models. Our results show that a conventional model fails to capture the genetic variation in infectivity inherent in populations with simulated infectivity. An IGE model, on the other hand, does capture some of the variation in infectivity. Comparison with expected genetic variance suggests that there is scope for further methodological improvement, and that potential responses to selection may be greater than values presented here. Nonetheless, selection using an index of estimated direct and indirect breeding values was shown to have a greater genetic selection differential and reduced future disease risk than traditional selection for resistance only. These findings suggest that if genetic variation in infectivity substantially contributes to disease transmission, then breeding designs which explicitly incorporate IGEs might help reduce disease prevalence. PMID:22768088

Trackline and point detection probabilities for acoustic surveys of Cuvier's and Blainville's beaked whales.

PubMed

Barlow, Jay; Tyack, Peter L; Johnson, Mark P; Baird, Robin W; Schorr, Gregory S; Andrews, Russel D; Aguilar de Soto, Natacha

2013-09-01

Acoustic survey methods can be used to estimate density and abundance using sounds produced by cetaceans and detected using hydrophones if the probability of detection can be estimated. For passive acoustic surveys, probability of detection at zero horizontal distance from a sensor, commonly called g(0), depends on the temporal patterns of vocalizations. Methods to estimate g(0) are developed based on the assumption that a beaked whale will be detected if it is producing regular echolocation clicks directly under or above a hydrophone. Data from acoustic recording tags placed on two species of beaked whales (Cuvier's beaked whale-Ziphius cavirostris and Blainville's beaked whale-Mesoplodon densirostris) are used to directly estimate the percentage of time they produce echolocation clicks. A model of vocal behavior for these species as a function of their diving behavior is applied to other types of dive data (from time-depth recorders and time-depth-transmitting satellite tags) to indirectly determine g(0) in other locations for low ambient noise conditions. Estimates of g(0) for a single instant in time are 0.28 [standard deviation (s.d.) = 0.05] for Cuvier's beaked whale and 0.19 (s.d. = 0.01) for Blainville's beaked whale.

An economic model for evaluating high-speed aircraft designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vandervelden, Alexander J. M.

1989-01-01

A Class 1 method for determining whether further development of a new aircraft design is desirable from all viewpoints is presented. For the manufacturer the model gives an estimate of the total cost of research and development from the preliminary design to the first production aircraft. Using Wright's law of production, one can derive the average cost per aircraft produced for a given break-even number. The model will also provide the airline with a good estimate of the direct and indirect operating costs. From the viewpoint of the passenger, the model proposes a tradeoff between ticket price and cruise speed. Finally all of these viewpoints are combined in a Comparative Aircraft Seat-kilometer Economic Index.

A Method for Forecasting the Commercial Air Traffic Schedule in the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, Dou; Lee, David; Gaier, Eric; Johnson, Jesse; Kostiuk, Peter

1999-01-01

This report presents an integrated set of models that forecasts air carriers' future operations when delays due to limited terminal-area capacity are considered. This report models the industry as a whole, avoiding unnecessary details of competition among the carriers. To develop the schedule outputs, we first present a model to forecast the unconstrained flight schedules in the future, based on the assumption of rational behavior of the carriers. Then we develop a method to modify the unconstrained schedules, accounting for effects of congestion due to limited NAS capacities. Our underlying assumption is that carriers will modify their operations to keep mean delays within certain limits. We estimate values for those limits from changes in planned block times reflected in the OAG. Our method for modifying schedules takes many means of reducing the delays into considerations, albeit some of them indirectly. The direct actions include depeaking, operating in off-hours, and reducing hub airports'operations. Indirect actions include using secondary airports, using larger aircraft, and selecting new hub airports, which, we assume, have already been modeled in the FAA's TAF. Users of our suite of models can substitute an alternative forecast for the TAF.

Marine Dispersal Scales Are Congruent over Evolutionary and Ecological Time.

PubMed

Pinsky, Malin L; Saenz-Agudelo, Pablo; Salles, Océane C; Almany, Glenn R; Bode, Michael; Berumen, Michael L; Andréfouët, Serge; Thorrold, Simon R; Jones, Geoffrey P; Planes, Serge

2017-01-09

The degree to which offspring remain near their parents or disperse widely is critical for understanding population dynamics, evolution, and biogeography, and for designing conservation actions. In the ocean, most estimates suggesting short-distance dispersal are based on direct ecological observations of dispersing individuals, while indirect evolutionary estimates often suggest substantially greater homogeneity among populations. Reconciling these two approaches and their seemingly competing perspectives on dispersal has been a major challenge. Here we show for the first time that evolutionary and ecological measures of larval dispersal can closely agree by using both to estimate the distribution of dispersal distances. In orange clownfish (Amphiprion percula) populations in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, we found that evolutionary dispersal kernels were 17 km (95% confidence interval: 12-24 km) wide, while an exhaustive set of direct larval dispersal observations suggested kernel widths of 27 km (19-36 km) or 19 km (15-27 km) across two years. The similarity between these two approaches suggests that ecological and evolutionary dispersal kernels can be equivalent, and that the apparent disagreement between direct and indirect measurements can be overcome. Our results suggest that carefully applied evolutionary methods, which are often less expensive, can be broadly relevant for understanding ecological dispersal across the tree of life. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic Impact of Atopic Dermatitis in Korean Patients

PubMed Central

Kim, Chulmin; Park, Kui Young; Ahn, Seohee; Kim, Dong Ha; Li, Kapsok; Kim, Do Won; Kim, Moon-Beom; Jo, Sun-Jin; Yim, Hyeon Woo

2015-01-01

Background Atopic dermatitis is a global public health concern owing to its increasing prevalence and socioeconomic burden. However, few studies have assessed the economic impact of atopic dermatitis in Korea. Objective We conducted a cost analysis of atopic dermatitis and evaluated its economic impacts on individual annual disease burden, quality of life, and changes in medical expenses with respect to changes in health related-quality of life. Methods The cost analysis of atopic dermatitis was performed by reviewing the home accounting records of 32 patients. The economic impact of the disease was evaluated by analyzing questionnaires. To handle uncertainties, we compared the results with the data released by the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Board on medical costs claimed by healthcare facilities. Results The direct cost of atopic dermatitis per patient during the 3-month study period was 541,280 Korean won (KRW), and expenditures on other atopic dermatitis-related products were 120,313 KRW. The extrapolated annual direct cost (including expenditures on other atopic dermatitis-related products) per patient was 2,646,372 KRW. The estimated annual indirect cost was 1,507,068 KRW. Thus, the annual cost of illness of atopic dermatitis (i.e., direct+indirect costs) was estimated to be 4,153,440 KRW. Conclusion The annual total social cost of atopic dermatitis on a national level is estimated to be 5.8 trillion KRW. PMID:26082587

A comparison of average wages with age-specific wages for assessing indirect productivity losses: analytic simplicity versus analytic precision.

PubMed

Connolly, Mark P; Tashjian, Cole; Kotsopoulos, Nikolaos; Bhatt, Aomesh; Postma, Maarten J

2017-07-01

Numerous approaches are used to estimate indirect productivity losses using various wage estimates applied to poor health in working aged adults. Considering the different wage estimation approaches observed in the published literature, we sought to assess variation in productivity loss estimates when using average wages compared with age-specific wages. Published estimates for average and age-specific wages for combined male/female wages were obtained from the UK Office of National Statistics. A polynomial interpolation was used to convert 5-year age-banded wage data into annual age-specific wages estimates. To compare indirect cost estimates, average wages and age-specific wages were used to project productivity losses at various stages of life based on the human capital approach. Discount rates of 0, 3, and 6 % were applied to projected age-specific and average wage losses. Using average wages was found to overestimate lifetime wages in conditions afflicting those aged 1-27 and 57-67, while underestimating lifetime wages in those aged 27-57. The difference was most significant for children where average wage overestimated wages by 15 % and for 40-year-olds where it underestimated wages by 14 %. Large differences in projecting productivity losses exist when using the average wage applied over a lifetime. Specifically, use of average wages overestimates productivity losses between 8 and 15 % for childhood illnesses. Furthermore, during prime working years, use of average wages will underestimate productivity losses by 14 %. We suggest that to achieve more precise estimates of productivity losses, age-specific wages should become the standard analytic approach.

The Usability of Noise Level from Rock Cutting for the Prediction of Physico-Mechanical Properties of Rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delibalta, M. S.; Kahraman, S.; Comakli, R.

2015-11-01

Because the indirect tests are easier and cheaper than the direct tests, the prediction of rock properties from the indirect testing methods is important especially for the preliminary investigations. In this study, the predictability of the physico-mechanical rock properties from the noise level measured during cutting rock with diamond saw was investigated. Noise measurement test, uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) test, Brazilian tensile strength (BTS) test, point load strength (Is) test, density test, and porosity test were carried out on 54 different rock types in the laboratory. The results were statistically analyzed to derive estimation equations. Strong correlations between the noise level and the mechanical rock properties were found. The relations follow power functions. Increasing rock strength increases the noise level. Density and porosity also correlated strongly with the noise level. The relations follow linear functions. Increasing density increases the noise level while increasing porosity decreases the noise level. The developed equations are valid for the rocks with a compressive strength below 150 MPa. Concluding remark is that the physico-mechanical rock properties can reliably be estimated from the noise level measured during cutting the rock with diamond saw.

The economic burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from 2004 to 2013.

PubMed

Kim, Jinhyun; Lee, Tae Jin; Kim, Sungjae; Lee, Eunhee

2016-01-01

This study examines the epidemiology and economic impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) at a nationwide level in South Korea. This retrospective analysis used the societal cost-of-illness framework, consisting of direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, and indirect costs. In order to analyze the societal costs of patients with COPD, this study used a data mining and a macro-costing method on data from a South Korean national-level health survey and a national health insurance claims database from 2004-2013. The total societal cost of COPD in 2013 was estimated to be $439.9 million for 1,419,914 patients. The direct medical cost for COPD was $214.3 million, which included a hospitalization cost of $96.3 million, an outpatient cost of $76.4 million, and a pharmaceutical cost of $41.6 million. The direct non-medical cost was estimated at $43.5 million. The indirect overall cost associated with the morbidity and mortality of COPD was $182.2 million in 2013. This study showed that COPD has a major effect on healthcare costs, particularly direct medical costs. Thus, appropriate long-term interventions are recommended to lower the economic burden of COPD in South Korea.

Economic Burden of Colorectal Cancer in Korea

PubMed Central

Byun, Ju-Young; Oh, In-Hwan; Kim, Young Ae; Seo, Hye-Young; Lee, Yo-Han

2014-01-01

Objectives The incidence and survival rate of colorectal cancer in Korea are increasing because of improved screening, treatment technologies, and lifestyle changes. In this aging population, increases in economic cost result. This study was conducted to estimate the economic burden of colorectal cancer utilizing claims data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. Methods Economic burdens of colorectal cancer were estimated using prevalence data and patients were defined as those who received ambulatory treatment from medical institutions or who had been hospitalized due to colorectal cancer under the International Classification of Disease 10th revision codes from C18-C21. The economic burdens of colorectal cancer were calculated as direct costs and indirect costs. Results The prevalence rate (per 100 000 people) of those who were treated for colorectal cancer during 2010 was 165.48. The economic burdens of colorectal cancer in 2010 were 3 trillion and 100 billion Korean won (KRW), respectively. Direct costs included 1 trillion and 960 billion KRW (62.85%), respectively and indirect costs were 1 trillion and 160 billion (37.15%), respectively. Conclusions Colorectal cancer has a large economic burden. Efforts should be made to reduce the economic burden of the disease through primary and secondary prevention. PMID:24744825

Study on Resources Assessment of Coal Seams covered by Long-Distance Oil & Gas Pipelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Bing; Fu, Qiang; Pan, Wei; Hou, Hanfang

2018-01-01

The assessment of mineral resources covered by construction projects plays an important role in reducing the overlaying of important mineral resources and ensuring the smooth implementation of construction projects. To take a planned long-distance gas pipeline as an example, the assessment method and principles for coal resources covered by linear projects are introduced. The areas covered by multiple coal seams are determined according to the linear projection method, and the resources covered by pipelines directly and indirectly are estimated by using area segmentation method on the basis of original blocks. The research results can provide references for route optimization of projects and compensation for mining right..

Evaluating the predictive performance of empirical estimators of natural mortality rate using information on over 200 fish species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Then, Amy Y.; Hoenig, John M; Hall, Norman G.; Hewitt, David A.

2015-01-01

Many methods have been developed in the last 70 years to predict the natural mortality rate, M, of a stock based on empirical evidence from comparative life history studies. These indirect or empirical methods are used in most stock assessments to (i) obtain estimates of M in the absence of direct information, (ii) check on the reasonableness of a direct estimate of M, (iii) examine the range of plausible M estimates for the stock under consideration, and (iv) define prior distributions for Bayesian analyses. The two most cited empirical methods have appeared in the literature over 2500 times to date. Despite the importance of these methods, there is no consensus in the literature on how well these methods work in terms of prediction error or how their performance may be ranked. We evaluate estimators based on various combinations of maximum age (tmax), growth parameters, and water temperature by seeing how well they reproduce >200 independent, direct estimates of M. We use tenfold cross-validation to estimate the prediction error of the estimators and to rank their performance. With updated and carefully reviewed data, we conclude that a tmax-based estimator performs the best among all estimators evaluated. The tmax-based estimators in turn perform better than the Alverson–Carney method based on tmax and the von Bertalanffy K coefficient, Pauly’s method based on growth parameters and water temperature and methods based just on K. It is possible to combine two independent methods by computing a weighted mean but the improvement over the tmax-based methods is slight. Based on cross-validation prediction error, model residual patterns, model parsimony, and biological considerations, we recommend the use of a tmax-based estimator (M=4.899tmax−0.916">M=4.899t−0.916maxM=4.899tmax−0.916, prediction error = 0.32) when possible and a growth-based method (M=4.118K0.73L∞−0.33">M=4.118K0.73L−0.33∞M=4.118K0.73L∞−0.33 , prediction error = 0.6, length in cm) otherwise.

Methodological problems in the use of indirect comparisons for evaluating healthcare interventions: survey of published systematic reviews.

PubMed

Song, Fujian; Loke, Yoon K; Walsh, Tanya; Glenny, Anne-Marie; Eastwood, Alison J; Altman, Douglas G

2009-04-03

To investigate basic assumptions and other methodological problems in the application of indirect comparison in systematic reviews of competing healthcare interventions. Survey of published systematic reviews. Inclusion criteria Systematic reviews published between 2000 and 2007 in which an indirect approach had been explicitly used. Identified reviews were assessed for comprehensiveness of the literature search, method for indirect comparison, and whether assumptions about similarity and consistency were explicitly mentioned. The survey included 88 review reports. In 13 reviews, indirect comparison was informal. Results from different trials were naively compared without using a common control in six reviews. Adjusted indirect comparison was usually done using classic frequentist methods (n=49) or more complex methods (n=18). The key assumption of trial similarity was explicitly mentioned in only 40 of the 88 reviews. The consistency assumption was not explicit in most cases where direct and indirect evidence were compared or combined (18/30). Evidence from head to head comparison trials was not systematically searched for or not included in nine cases. Identified methodological problems were an unclear understanding of underlying assumptions, inappropriate search and selection of relevant trials, use of inappropriate or flawed methods, lack of objective and validated methods to assess or improve trial similarity, and inadequate comparison or inappropriate combination of direct and indirect evidence. Adequate understanding of basic assumptions underlying indirect and mixed treatment comparison is crucial to resolve these methodological problems. APPENDIX 1: PubMed search strategy. APPENDIX 2: Characteristics of identified reports. APPENDIX 3: Identified studies. References of included studies.

Direct reconstruction of cardiac PET kinetic parametric images using a preconditioned conjugate gradient approach

PubMed Central

Rakvongthai, Yothin; Ouyang, Jinsong; Guerin, Bastien; Li, Quanzheng; Alpert, Nathaniel M.; El Fakhri, Georges

2013-01-01

Purpose: Our research goal is to develop an algorithm to reconstruct cardiac positron emission tomography (PET) kinetic parametric images directly from sinograms and compare its performance with the conventional indirect approach. Methods: Time activity curves of a NCAT phantom were computed according to a one-tissue compartmental kinetic model with realistic kinetic parameters. The sinograms at each time frame were simulated using the activity distribution for the time frame. The authors reconstructed the parametric images directly from the sinograms by optimizing a cost function, which included the Poisson log-likelihood and a spatial regularization terms, using the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) algorithm with the proposed preconditioner. The proposed preconditioner is a diagonal matrix whose diagonal entries are the ratio of the parameter and the sensitivity of the radioactivity associated with parameter. The authors compared the reconstructed parametric images using the direct approach with those reconstructed using the conventional indirect approach. Results: At the same bias, the direct approach yielded significant relative reduction in standard deviation by 12%–29% and 32%–70% for 50 × 106 and 10 × 106 detected coincidences counts, respectively. Also, the PCG method effectively reached a constant value after only 10 iterations (with numerical convergence achieved after 40–50 iterations), while more than 500 iterations were needed for CG. Conclusions: The authors have developed a novel approach based on the PCG algorithm to directly reconstruct cardiac PET parametric images from sinograms, and yield better estimation of kinetic parameters than the conventional indirect approach, i.e., curve fitting of reconstructed images. The PCG method increases the convergence rate of reconstruction significantly as compared to the conventional CG method. PMID:24089922

Agreement between arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide and saturation of hemoglobin with oxygen values obtained by direct arterial blood measurements versus noninvasive methods in conscious healthy and ill foals.

PubMed

Wong, David M; Alcott, Cody J; Wang, Chong; Bornkamp, Jennifer L; Young, Jessica L; Sponseller, Brett A

2011-11-15

To determine agreement between indirect measurements of end-tidal partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PetCO(2)) and saturation of hemoglobin with oxygen as measured by pulse oximetry (SpO(2)) with direct measurements of PaCO(2) and calculated saturation of hemoglobin with oxygen in arterial blood (SaO(2)) in conscious healthy and ill foals. Validation study. 10 healthy and 21 ill neonatal foals. Arterial blood gas analysis was performed on healthy and ill foals examined at a veterinary teaching hospital to determine direct measurements of PaCO(2) and PaO(2) along with SaO(2). Concurrently, PetCO(2) was measured with a capnograph inserted into a naris, and SpO(2) was measured with a reflectance probe placed at the base of the tail. Paired values were compared by use of Pearson correlation coefficients, and level of agreement was assessed with the Bland-Altman method. Mean ± SD difference between PaCO(2) and PetCO(2) was 0.1 ± 5.0 mm Hg. There was significant strong correlation (r = 0.779) and good agreement between PaCO(2) and PetCO(2). Mean ± SD difference between SaO(2) and SpO(2) was 2.5 ± 3.5%. There was significant moderate correlation (r = 0.499) and acceptable agreement between SaO(2) and SpO(2). Both PetCO(2) obtained by use of nasal capnography and SpO(2) obtained with a reflectance probe are clinically applicable and accurate indirect methods of estimating and monitoring PaCO(2) and SaO(2) in neonatal foals. Indirect methods should not replace periodic direct measurement of corresponding parameters.

Small area estimation (SAE) model: Case study of poverty in West Java Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhartini, Titin; Sadik, Kusman; Indahwati

2016-02-01

This paper showed the comparative of direct estimation and indirect/Small Area Estimation (SAE) model. Model selection included resolve multicollinearity problem in auxiliary variable, such as choosing only variable non-multicollinearity and implemented principal component (PC). Concern parameters in this paper were the proportion of agricultural venture poor households and agricultural poor households area level in West Java Province. The approach for estimating these parameters could be performed based on direct estimation and SAE. The problem of direct estimation, three area even zero and could not be conducted by directly estimation, because small sample size. The proportion of agricultural venture poor households showed 19.22% and agricultural poor households showed 46.79%. The best model from agricultural venture poor households by choosing only variable non-multicollinearity and the best model from agricultural poor households by implemented PC. The best estimator showed SAE better then direct estimation both of the proportion of agricultural venture poor households and agricultural poor households area level in West Java Province. The solution overcame small sample size and obtained estimation for small area was implemented small area estimation method for evidence higher accuracy and better precision improved direct estimator.

Pharmacoeconomics

PubMed Central

Hughes, Dyfrig A

2012-01-01

Pharmacoeconomics is an essential component of health technology assessment and the appraisal of medicines for use by UK National Health Service (NHS) patients. As a comparatively young discipline, its methods continue to evolve. Priority research areas for development include methods for synthesizing indirect comparisons when head-to-head trials have not been performed, synthesizing qualitative evidence (for example, stakeholder views), addressing the limitations of the EQ-5D tool for assessing quality of life, including benefits not captured in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), ways of assessing valuation methods (for determining utility scores), extrapolation of costs and benefits beyond those observed in trials, early estimation of cost-effectiveness (including mechanism-based economic evaluation), methods for incorporating the impact of non-adherence and the role of behavioural economics in influencing patients and prescribers. PMID:22360714

Motion estimation using point cluster method and Kalman filter.

PubMed

Senesh, M; Wolf, A

2009-05-01

The most frequently used method in a three dimensional human gait analysis involves placing markers on the skin of the analyzed segment. This introduces a significant artifact, which strongly influences the bone position and orientation and joint kinematic estimates. In this study, we tested and evaluated the effect of adding a Kalman filter procedure to the previously reported point cluster technique (PCT) in the estimation of a rigid body motion. We demonstrated the procedures by motion analysis of a compound planar pendulum from indirect opto-electronic measurements of markers attached to an elastic appendage that is restrained to slide along the rigid body long axis. The elastic frequency is close to the pendulum frequency, as in the biomechanical problem, where the soft tissue frequency content is similar to the actual movement of the bones. Comparison of the real pendulum angle to that obtained by several estimation procedures--PCT, Kalman filter followed by PCT, and low pass filter followed by PCT--enables evaluation of the accuracy of the procedures. When comparing the maximal amplitude, no effect was noted by adding the Kalman filter; however, a closer look at the signal revealed that the estimated angle based only on the PCT method was very noisy with fluctuation, while the estimated angle based on the Kalman filter followed by the PCT was a smooth signal. It was also noted that the instantaneous frequencies obtained from the estimated angle based on the PCT method is more dispersed than those obtained from the estimated angle based on Kalman filter followed by the PCT method. Addition of a Kalman filter to the PCT method in the estimation procedure of rigid body motion results in a smoother signal that better represents the real motion, with less signal distortion than when using a digital low pass filter. Furthermore, it can be concluded that adding a Kalman filter to the PCT procedure substantially reduces the dispersion of the maximal and minimal instantaneous frequencies.

Global and regional cause-of-death patterns in 1990.

PubMed Central

Murray, C. J.; Lopez, A. D.

1994-01-01

Demographic estimation techniques suggest that worldwide about 50 million deaths occur each year, of which about 39 million are in the developing countries. In countries with adequate registration of vital statistics, the age at death and the cause can be reliably determined. Only about 30-35% of all deaths are captured by vital registration (excluding sample registration schemes); for the remainder, cause-of-death estimation procedures are required. Indirect methods which model the cause-of-death structure as a function of the level of mortality can provide reasonable estimates for broad cause-of-death groups. Such methods are generally unreliable for more specific causes. In this case, estimates can be constructed from community-level mortality surveillance systems or from epidemiological evidence on specific diseases. Some check on the plausibility of the estimates is possible in view of the hierarchical structure of cause-of-death lists and the well-known age-specific patterns of diseases and injuries. The results of applying these methods to estimate the cause of death for over 120 diseases or injuries, by age, sex and region, are described. The estimates have been derived in order to calculate the years of life lost due to premature death, one of the two components of overall disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) calculated for the 1993 World development report. Previous attempts at cause-of-death estimation have been limited to a few diseases only, with little age-specific detail. The estimates reported in detail here should serve as a useful reference for further public health research to support the determination of health sector priorities. PMID:8062402

SVPWM Technique with Varying DC-Link Voltage for Common Mode Voltage Reduction in a Matrix Converter and Analytical Estimation of its Output Voltage Distortion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padhee, Varsha

Common Mode Voltage (CMV) in any power converter has been the major contributor to premature motor failures, bearing deterioration, shaft voltage build up and electromagnetic interference. Intelligent control methods like Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation (SVPWM) techniques provide immense potential and flexibility to reduce CMV, thereby targeting all the afore mentioned problems. Other solutions like passive filters, shielded cables and EMI filters add to the volume and cost metrics of the entire system. Smart SVPWM techniques therefore, come with a very important advantage of being an economical solution. This thesis discusses a modified space vector technique applied to an Indirect Matrix Converter (IMC) which results in the reduction of common mode voltages and other advanced features. The conventional indirect space vector pulse-width modulation (SVPWM) method of controlling matrix converters involves the usage of two adjacent active vectors and one zero vector for both rectifying and inverting stages of the converter. By suitable selection of space vectors, the rectifying stage of the matrix converter can generate different levels of virtual DC-link voltage. This capability can be exploited for operation of the converter in different ranges of modulation indices for varying machine speeds. This results in lower common mode voltage and improves the harmonic spectrum of the output voltage, without increasing the number of switching transitions as compared to conventional modulation. To summarize it can be said that the responsibility of formulating output voltages with a particular magnitude and frequency has been transferred solely to the rectifying stage of the IMC. Estimation of degree of distortion in the three phase output voltage is another facet discussed in this thesis. An understanding of the SVPWM technique and the switching sequence of the space vectors in detail gives the potential to estimate the RMS value of the switched output voltage of any converter. This conceivably aids the sizing and design of output passive filters. An analytical estimation method has been presented to achieve this purpose for am IMC. Knowledge of the fundamental component in output voltage can be utilized to calculate its Total Harmonic Distortion (THD). The effectiveness of the proposed SVPWM algorithms and the analytical estimation technique is substantiated by simulations in MATLAB / Simulink and experiments on a laboratory prototype of the IMC. Proper comparison plots have been provided to contrast the performance of the proposed methods with the conventional SVPWM method. The behavior of output voltage distortion and CMV with variation in operating parameters like modulation index and output frequency has also been analyzed.

Flood impacts on a water distribution network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

2017-12-01

Floods cause damage to people, buildings and infrastructures. Water distribution systems are particularly exposed, since water treatment plants are often located next to the rivers. Failure of the system leads to both direct losses, for instance damage to equipment and pipework contamination, and indirect impact, since it may lead to service disruption and thus affect populations far from the event through the functional dependencies of the network. In this work, we present an analysis of direct and indirect damages on a drinking water supply system, considering the hazard of riverine flooding as well as the exposure and vulnerability of active system components. The method is based on interweaving, through a semi-automated GIS procedure, a flood model and an EPANET-based pipe network model with a pressure-driven demand approach, which is needed when modelling water distribution networks in highly off-design conditions. Impact measures are defined and estimated so as to quantify service outage and potential pipe contamination. The method is applied to the water supply system of the city of Florence, Italy, serving approximately 380 000 inhabitants. The evaluation of flood impact on the water distribution network is carried out for different events with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to estimate their residual functionality and to simulate failure scenarios. Results show that in the worst failure scenario (no residual functionality of the lifting station and a 500-year flood), 420 km of pipework would require disinfection with an estimated cost of EUR 21 million, which is about 0.5 % of the direct flood losses evaluated for buildings and contents. Moreover, if flood impacts on the water distribution network are considered, the population affected by the flood is up to 3 times the population directly flooded.

Direct reconstruction of pharmacokinetic parameters in dynamic fluorescence molecular tomography by the augmented Lagrangian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Dianwen; Zhang, Wei; Zhao, Yue; Li, Changqing

2016-03-01

Dynamic fluorescence molecular tomography (FMT) has the potential to quantify physiological or biochemical information, known as pharmacokinetic parameters, which are important for cancer detection, drug development and delivery etc. To image those parameters, there are indirect methods, which are easier to implement but tend to provide images with low signal-to-noise ratio, and direct methods, which model all the measurement noises together and are statistically more efficient. The direct reconstruction methods in dynamic FMT have attracted a lot of attention recently. However, the coupling of tomographic image reconstruction and nonlinearity of kinetic parameter estimation due to the compartment modeling has imposed a huge computational burden to the direct reconstruction of the kinetic parameters. In this paper, we propose to take advantage of both the direct and indirect reconstruction ideas through a variable splitting strategy under the augmented Lagrangian framework. Each iteration of the direct reconstruction is split into two steps: the dynamic FMT image reconstruction and the node-wise nonlinear least squares fitting of the pharmacokinetic parameter images. Through numerical simulation studies, we have found that the proposed algorithm can achieve good reconstruction results within a small amount of time. This will be the first step for a combined dynamic PET and FMT imaging in the future.

PIV-based estimation of unsteady loads on a flat plate at high angle of attack using momentum equation approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guissart, Amandine; Bernal, Luis; Dimitriadis, Gregorios; Terrapon, Vincent

2015-11-01

The direct measurement of loads with force balance can become challenging when the forces are small or when the body is moving. An alternative is the use of Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) velocity fields to indirectly obtain the aerodynamic coefficients. This can be done by the use of control volume approaches which lead to the integration of velocities, and other fields deriving from them, on a contour surrounding the studied body and its supporting surface. This work exposes and discusses results obtained with two different methods: the direct use of the integral formulation of the Navier-Stokes equations and the so-called Noca's method. The latter is a reformulation of the integral Navier-Stokes equations in order to get rid of the pressure. Results obtained using the two methods are compared and the influence of different parameters is discussed. The methods are applied to PIV data obtained from water channel testing for the flow around a 16:1 plate. Two cases are considered: a static plate at high angle of attack and a large amplitude imposed pitching motion. Two-dimensional PIV velocity fields are used to compute the aerodynamic forces. Direct measurements of dynamic loads are also carried out in order to assess the quality of the indirectly calculated coefficients.

Quantifying the economic burden of productivity loss in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Filipovic, Ivana; Walker, David; Forster, Fiona; Curry, Alistair S

2011-06-01

In light of the large number of recent studies and systematic reviews investigating the cost of RA, this article examines the methods used to assess the impact of RA on employment and work productivity, and provides an overview of the issues surrounding work productivity loss in the RA population. A review of the published literature was conducted in order to identify relevant articles. These articles were then reviewed and their methodologies compared. The various methods used to calculate economic loss were then explained and discussed. We found that although methods of lost productivity and associated costs varied between studies, all suggest that RA is associated with significant burden of illness. Economic analyses that exclude indirect costs will therefore underestimate the full economic impact of RA. However, the methods used to calculate productivity loss have a significant impact on the results of indirect cost analyses, and should be selected carefully when designing such studies. Several factors relating to the disease, the job and socio-demographics have been found to predict work disability. Consideration of these factors is vital when measuring the extent of both absenteeism and presenteeism, and will allow for more accurate estimation of the impact of RA on work productivity. This information may also guide interventions aiming to prevent or postpone work disability and job loss.

Delineating Facies Spatial Distribution by Integrating Ensemble Data Assimilation and Indicator Geostatistics with Level Set Transformation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammond, Glenn Edward; Song, Xuehang; Ye, Ming

A new approach is developed to delineate the spatial distribution of discrete facies (geological units that have unique distributions of hydraulic, physical, and/or chemical properties) conditioned not only on direct data (measurements directly related to facies properties, e.g., grain size distribution obtained from borehole samples) but also on indirect data (observations indirectly related to facies distribution, e.g., hydraulic head and tracer concentration). Our method integrates for the first time ensemble data assimilation with traditional transition probability-based geostatistics. The concept of level set is introduced to build shape parameterization that allows transformation between discrete facies indicators and continuous random variables. Themore » spatial structure of different facies is simulated by indicator models using conditioning points selected adaptively during the iterative process of data assimilation. To evaluate the new method, a two-dimensional semi-synthetic example is designed to estimate the spatial distribution and permeability of two distinct facies from transient head data induced by pumping tests. The example demonstrates that our new method adequately captures the spatial pattern of facies distribution by imposing spatial continuity through conditioning points. The new method also reproduces the overall response in hydraulic head field with better accuracy compared to data assimilation with no constraints on spatial continuity on facies.« less

Economic Burden of Occupational Injury and Illness in the United States

PubMed Central

Leigh, J Paul

2011-01-01

Context The allocation of scarce health care resources requires a knowledge of disease costs. Whereas many studies of a variety of diseases are available, few focus on job-related injuries and illnesses. This article provides estimates of the national costs of occupational injury and illness among civilians in the United States for 2007. Methods This study provides estimates of both the incidence of fatal and nonfatal injuries and nonfatal illnesses and the prevalence of fatal diseases as well as both medical and indirect (productivity) costs. To generate the estimates, I combined primary and secondary data sources with parameters from the literature and model assumptions. My primary sources were injury, disease, employment, and inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as well as costs data from the National Council on Compensation Insurance and the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. My secondary sources were the National Academy of Social Insurance, literature estimates of Attributable Fractions (AF) of diseases with occupational components, and national estimates for all health care costs. Critical model assumptions were applied to the underreporting of injuries, wage-replacement rates, and AFs. Total costs were calculated by multiplying the number of cases by the average cost per case. A sensitivity analysis tested for the effects of the most consequential assumptions. Numerous improvements over earlier studies included reliance on BLS data for government workers and ten specific cancer sites rather than only one broad cancer category. Findings The number of fatal and nonfatal injuries in 2007 was estimated to be more than 5,600 and almost 8,559,000, respectively, at a cost of $6 billion and $186 billion. The number of fatal and nonfatal illnesses was estimated at more than 53,000 and nearly 427,000, respectively, with cost estimates of $46 billion and $12 billion. For injuries and diseases combined, medical cost estimates were $67 billion (27% of the total), and indirect costs were almost $183 billion (73%). Injuries comprised 77 percent of the total, and diseases accounted for 23 percent. The total estimated costs were approximately $250 billion, compared with the inflation-adjusted cost of $217 billion for 1992. Conclusions The medical and indirect costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are sizable, at least as large as the cost of cancer. Workers’ compensation covers less than 25 percent of these costs, so all members of society share the burden. The contributions of job-related injuries and illnesses to the overall cost of medical care and ill health are greater than generally assumed. PMID:22188353

Variation in costs of cone beam CT examinations among healthcare systems

PubMed Central

Christell, H; Birch, S; Hedesiu, M; Horner, K; Ivanauskaité, D; Nackaerts, O; Rohlin, M; Lindh, C

2012-01-01

Objectives To analyse the costs of cone beam CT (CBCT) in different healthcare systems for patients with different clinical conditions. Methods Costs were calculated for CBCT performed in Cluj (Romania), Leuven (Belgium), Malmö (Sweden) and Vilnius (Lithuania) on patients with (i) a maxillary canine with eruption disturbance, (ii) an area with tooth loss prior to implant treatment or (iii) a lower wisdom tooth planned for removal. The costs were calculated using an approach based on the identification, measurement and valuation of all resources used in the delivery of the service that combined direct costs (capital equipment, accommodation, labour) with indirect costs (patients' and accompanying persons' time, “out of pocket” costs for examination fee and visits). Results The estimates for direct and indirect costs varied among the healthcare systems, being highest in Malmö and lowest in Leuven. Variation in direct costs was mainly owing to different capital costs for the CBCT equipment arising from differences in purchase prices (range €148 000–227 000). Variation in indirect costs were mainly owing to examination fees (range €0–102.02). Conclusions Cost analysis provides an important input for economic evaluations of diagnostic methods in different healthcare systems and for planning of service delivery. Additionally, it enables decision-makers to separate variations in costs between systems into those due to external influences and those due to policy decisions. A cost evaluation of a dental radiographic method cannot be generalized from one healthcare system to another, but must take into account these specific circumstances. PMID:22499131

Do hand-held calorimeters provide reliable and accurate estimates of resting metabolic rate?

PubMed

Van Loan, Marta D

2007-12-01

This paper provides an overview of a new technique for indirect calorimetry and the assessment of resting metabolic rate. Information from the research literature includes findings on the reliability and validity of a new hand-held indirect calorimeter as well as use in clinical and field settings. Research findings to date are of mixed results. The MedGem instrument has provided more consistent results when compared to the Douglas bag method of measuring metabolic rate. The BodyGem instrument has been shown to be less accurate when compared to standard metabolic carts. Furthermore, when the Body Gem has been used with clinical patients or with under nourished individuals the results have not been acceptable. Overall, there is not a large enough body of evidence to definitively support the use of these hand-held devices for assessment of metabolic rate in a wide variety of clinical or research environments.

[Disability Pension and Productivity Loss in Schizophrenia - An Empirical Analysis of the Financial Burden in Germany].

PubMed

Kortmann, Lisa-Maria; Müller, Dirk; Simic, Dusan; Civello, Daniele; Stock, Stephanie

2017-03-01

Objective Quantification of the economic burden for society and the German Statutory Pension Insurance due to early retirement in schizophrenia. Methods Based on empirical data of the German Statutory Pension Insurance, productivity losses were calculated using the human capital approach. Results The total expenditures of the German Statutory Pension Insurance due to pension payments for schizophrenic insurants amounted to € 450 million. Total indirect costs due to morbidity and mortality were estimated at € 2,3 million. Average indirect costs per patient ranged between € 17 000 - 28 000, depending on rates for discounting and inflation. Conclusion Regarding substantial economic consequences, preventive measures and therapeutic procedures should aim to prevent reduction in earning capacity and to promote occupational reintegration of schizophrenic patients. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Lurking systematics in dust-based estimates of galaxy ISM masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janowiecki, Steven; Cortese, Luca; Catinella, Barbara; Goodwin, Adelle

2018-01-01

We use galaxies from the Herschel Reference Survey to evaluate commonly used indirect predictors of cold gas masses. With observations of cold neutral atomic and molecular gas, we calibrate predictive relationships using infrared dust emission and gas depletion time methods. We derive a set of self-consistent predictions of cold gas masses with ~20% scatter, and the greatest accuracy for total cold gas mass. However, significant systematic residuals are found in all calibrations which depend strongly on the molecular-to-atomic hydrogen mass ratio, and they can over/under-predict gas masses by >0.5 dex. Extending these types of indirect predictions to high-z galaxies (e.g., using ALMA observations of dust continuum to determine gas masses) requires implicit assumptions about the conditions in their interstellar medium. Any scaling relations derived using predicted gas masses may be more closely related to the calibrations used than to the actual galaxies observed.

Mediation Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide.

PubMed

VanderWeele, Tyler J

2016-01-01

This article provides an overview of recent developments in mediation analysis, that is, analyses used to assess the relative magnitude of different pathways and mechanisms by which an exposure may affect an outcome. Traditional approaches to mediation in the biomedical and social sciences are described. Attention is given to the confounding assumptions required for a causal interpretation of direct and indirect effect estimates. Methods from the causal inference literature to conduct mediation in the presence of exposure-mediator interactions, binary outcomes, binary mediators, and case-control study designs are presented. Sensitivity analysis techniques for unmeasured confounding and measurement error are introduced. Discussion is given to extensions to time-to-event outcomes and multiple mediators. Further flexible modeling strategies arising from the precise counterfactual definitions of direct and indirect effects are also described. The focus throughout is on methodology that is easily implementable in practice across a broad range of potential applications.

Size Estimation of Groups at High Risk of HIV/AIDS using Network Scale Up in Kerman, Iran

PubMed Central

Shokoohi, Mostafa; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Haghdoost, Ali-Akbar

2012-01-01

Objective: To estimate the size of groups at high risk of HIV, Network Scale UP (NSU), an indirect method, was used. Methods: 500 Kermanian male aged 18 to 45 were recruited. 8 groups at high risk of HIV were defined: Users of opium, unknown drug, ecstasy, and alcohol; intra-venous drug users (IDUs; males who have extra-marital sex with females (MSF); male who have sex with female sex workers (MFSW); and male who have sex with other male (MSMs). We asked respondents whether they know anybody (probability method), and if yes, how many people (frequency method) in our target groups. Results: Estimates derived in the probability method were higher than the frequency method. Based on the probability method, 13.7% (95% CI: 11.3%, 16.1%) of males used alcohol at least once in last year; the corresponding percent for opium was 13.1% (95% CI: 10.9%, 15.3%). In addition, 12% has extra-marital sex in last year (95% CI: 10%, 14%); while 7% (95% CI: 5.8%, 8.2%) had sex with a female sex worker. Conclusion: We showed that drug use is more common among young and mid-age males; although their sexual contacts were also considerable. These percentages show that special preventive program is needed to control an HIV transmission. Estimates derived from probability method were comparable with data from external sources. The underestimation in frequency method might be due to the fact that respondents are not aware of sensitive characteristics of all those in their network and underreporting is likely to occur. PMID:22891148

Using direct calorimetry to test the accuracy of indirect calorimetry in an ectotherm.

PubMed

Walsberg, Glenn E; Hoffman, Ty C M

2006-01-01

We previously demonstrated that the relationship between respiratory gas exchange and metabolic heat production is unexpectedly variable and that conventional approaches to estimating energy expenditure by indirect calorimetry can incorporate large errors. Prior studies, however, comparing direct and indirect calorimetry of animals focused only on endothermic organisms. Given that endothermy and ectothermy represent a fundamental dichotomy of animal energetics, in this analysis we explore how these contrasting physiologies correlate with the relationship between heat production and respiratory gas exchange. Simultaneous indirect and direct calorimetry in an ectotherm, the ball python (Python regius Shaw), revealed that the relationships between gas exchange and heat production were within 1% of those expected when analyses using indirect calorimetry were based on the assumption that the fasting animal catabolized only protein. This accuracy of indirect calorimetry contrasts sharply with our previous conclusions for three species of birds and mammals.

Estimation of In Situ Stresses with Hydro-Fracturing Tests and a Statistical Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hikweon; Ong, See Hong

2018-03-01

At great depths, where borehole-based field stress measurements such as hydraulic fracturing are challenging due to difficult downhole conditions or prohibitive costs, in situ stresses can be indirectly estimated using wellbore failures such as borehole breakouts and/or drilling-induced tensile failures detected by an image log. As part of such efforts, a statistical method has been developed in which borehole breakouts detected on an image log are used for this purpose (Song et al. in Proceedings on the 7th international symposium on in situ rock stress, 2016; Song and Chang in J Geophys Res Solid Earth 122:4033-4052, 2017). The method employs a grid-searching algorithm in which the least and maximum horizontal principal stresses ( S h and S H) are varied, and the corresponding simulated depth-related breakout width distribution as a function of the breakout angle ( θ B = 90° - half of breakout width) is compared to that observed along the borehole to determine a set of S h and S H having the lowest misfit between them. An important advantage of the method is that S h and S H can be estimated simultaneously in vertical wells. To validate the statistical approach, the method is applied to a vertical hole where a set of field hydraulic fracturing tests have been carried out. The stress estimations using the proposed method were found to be in good agreement with the results interpreted from the hydraulic fracturing test measurements.

Platelet Counts in Insoluble Platelet-Rich Fibrin Clots: A Direct Method for Accurate Determination.

PubMed

Kitamura, Yutaka; Watanabe, Taisuke; Nakamura, Masayuki; Isobe, Kazushige; Kawabata, Hideo; Uematsu, Kohya; Okuda, Kazuhiro; Nakata, Koh; Tanaka, Takaaki; Kawase, Tomoyuki

2018-01-01

Platelet-rich fibrin (PRF) clots have been used in regenerative dentistry most often, with the assumption that growth factor levels are concentrated in proportion to the platelet concentration. Platelet counts in PRF are generally determined indirectly by platelet counting in other liquid fractions. This study shows a method for direct estimation of platelet counts in PRF. To validate this method by determination of the recovery rate, whole-blood samples were obtained with an anticoagulant from healthy donors, and platelet-rich plasma (PRP) fractions were clotted with CaCl 2 by centrifugation and digested with tissue-plasminogen activator. Platelet counts were estimated before clotting and after digestion using an automatic hemocytometer. The method was then tested on PRF clots. The quality of platelets was examined by scanning electron microscopy and flow cytometry. In PRP-derived fibrin matrices, the recovery rate of platelets and white blood cells was 91.6 and 74.6%, respectively, after 24 h of digestion. In PRF clots associated with small and large red thrombi, platelet counts were 92.6 and 67.2% of the respective total platelet counts. These findings suggest that our direct method is sufficient for estimating the number of platelets trapped in an insoluble fibrin matrix and for determining that platelets are distributed in PRF clots and red thrombi roughly in proportion to their individual volumes. Therefore, we propose this direct digestion method for more accurate estimation of platelet counts in most types of platelet-enriched fibrin matrix.

Platelet Counts in Insoluble Platelet-Rich Fibrin Clots: A Direct Method for Accurate Determination

PubMed Central

Kitamura, Yutaka; Watanabe, Taisuke; Nakamura, Masayuki; Isobe, Kazushige; Kawabata, Hideo; Uematsu, Kohya; Okuda, Kazuhiro; Nakata, Koh; Tanaka, Takaaki; Kawase, Tomoyuki

2018-01-01

Platelet-rich fibrin (PRF) clots have been used in regenerative dentistry most often, with the assumption that growth factor levels are concentrated in proportion to the platelet concentration. Platelet counts in PRF are generally determined indirectly by platelet counting in other liquid fractions. This study shows a method for direct estimation of platelet counts in PRF. To validate this method by determination of the recovery rate, whole-blood samples were obtained with an anticoagulant from healthy donors, and platelet-rich plasma (PRP) fractions were clotted with CaCl2 by centrifugation and digested with tissue-plasminogen activator. Platelet counts were estimated before clotting and after digestion using an automatic hemocytometer. The method was then tested on PRF clots. The quality of platelets was examined by scanning electron microscopy and flow cytometry. In PRP-derived fibrin matrices, the recovery rate of platelets and white blood cells was 91.6 and 74.6%, respectively, after 24 h of digestion. In PRF clots associated with small and large red thrombi, platelet counts were 92.6 and 67.2% of the respective total platelet counts. These findings suggest that our direct method is sufficient for estimating the number of platelets trapped in an insoluble fibrin matrix and for determining that platelets are distributed in PRF clots and red thrombi roughly in proportion to their individual volumes. Therefore, we propose this direct digestion method for more accurate estimation of platelet counts in most types of platelet-enriched fibrin matrix. PMID:29450197

Invited commentary: boundless science--putting natural direct and indirect effects in a clearer empirical context.

PubMed

Naimi, Ashley I

2015-07-15

Epidemiologists are increasingly using natural effects for applied mediation analyses, yet 1 key identifying assumption is unintuitive and subject to some controversy. In this issue of the Journal, Jiang and VanderWeele (Am J Epidemiol. 2015;182(2):105-108) formalize the conditions under which the difference method can be used to estimate natural indirect effects. In this commentary, I discuss implications of the controversial "cross-worlds" independence assumption needed to identify natural effects. I argue that with a binary mediator, a simple modification of the authors' approach will provide bounds for natural direct and indirect effect estimates that better reflect the capacity of the available data to support empirical statements on the presence of mediated effects. I discuss complications encountered when odds ratios are used to decompose effects, as well as the implications of incorrectly assuming the absence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders. I note that the former problem can be entirely resolved using collapsible measures of effect, such as risk ratios. In the Appendix, I use previous derivations for natural direct effect bounds on the risk difference scale to provide bounds on the odds ratio scale that accommodate 1) uncertainty due to the cross-world independence assumption and 2) uncertainty due to the cross-world independence assumption and the presence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Stress increases the risk of type 2 diabetes onset in women: A 12-year longitudinal study using causal modelling

PubMed Central

Oldmeadow, Christopher; Hure, Alexis; Luu, Judy; Loxton, Deborah

2017-01-01

Background Type 2 diabetes is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Modifiable risk factors have been found to contribute up to 60% of type 2 diabetes risk. However, type 2 diabetes continues to rise despite implementation of interventions based on traditional risk factors. There is a clear need to identify additional risk factors for chronic disease prevention. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between perceived stress and type 2 diabetes onset, and partition the estimates into direct and indirect effects. Methods and findings Women born in 1946–1951 (n = 12,844) completed surveys for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health in 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010. The total causal effect was estimated using logistic regression and marginal structural modelling. Controlled direct effects were estimated through conditioning in the regression model. A graded association was found between perceived stress and all mediators in the multivariate time lag analyses. A significant association was found between hypertension, as well as physical activity and body mass index, and diabetes, but not smoking or diet quality. Moderate/high stress levels were associated with a 2.3-fold increase in the odds of diabetes three years later, for the total estimated effect. Results were only slightly attenuated when the direct and indirect effects of perceived stress on diabetes were partitioned, with the mediators only explaining 10–20% of the excess variation in diabetes. Conclusions Perceived stress is a strong risk factor for type 2 diabetes. The majority of the effect estimate of stress on diabetes risk is not mediated by the traditional risk factors of hypertension, physical activity, smoking, diet quality, and body mass index. This gives a new pathway for diabetes prevention trials and clinical practice. PMID:28222165

Costs of occupational injuries in agriculture.

PubMed

Leigh, J P; McCurdy, S A; Schenker, M B

2001-01-01

This study was conducted to estimate the costs of job-related injuries in agriculture in the United States for 1992. The authors reviewed data from national surveys to assess the incidence of fatal and non-fatal farm injuries. Numerical adjustments were made for weaknesses in the most reliable data sets. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Annual Survey estimate of non-fatal injuries is adjusted upward by a factor of 4.7 to reflect the BLS undercount of farm injuries. To assess costs, the authors used the human capital method that allocates costs to direct categories such as medical expenses, as well as indirect categories such as lost earnings, lost home production, and lost fringe benefits. Cost data were drawn from the Health Care Financing Administration and the National Council on Compensation Insurance. Eight hundred forty-one (841) deaths and 512,539 non-fatal injuries are estimated for 1992. The non-fatal injuries include 281,896 that led to at least one full day of work loss. Agricultural occupational injuries cost an estimated $4.57 billion (range $3.14 billion to $13.99 billion) in 1992. On a per person basis, farming contributes roughly 30% more than the national average to occupational injury costs. Direct costs are estimated to be $1.66 billion and indirect costs, $2.93 billion. The costs of farm injuries are on a par with the costs of hepatitis C. This high cost is in sharp contrast to the limited public attention and economic resources devoted to prevention and amelioration of farm injuries. Agricultural occupational injuries are an underappreciated contributor to the overall national burden of health and medical costs.

A simple tool for estimating city-wide annual electrical energy savings from cooler surfaces

DOE PAGES

Pomerantz, Melvin; Rosado, Pablo J.; Levinson, Ronnen

2015-07-26

We present a simple method to estimate the maximum possible energy saving that might be achieved by increasing the albedo of surfaces in a large city. We restrict this to the "indirect effect", the cooling of outside air that lessens the demand for air conditioning (AC). Given the power demand of the electric utilities and data about the city, we can use a single linear equation to estimate the maximum saving. For example, the result for an albedo change of 0.2 of pavements in a typical warm city in California, such as Sacramento, is that the saving is less thanmore » about 2 kWh per m 2 per year. This may help decision makers choose which heat island mitigation techniques are economical from an energy-saving perspective.« less

Stochastic inversion of cross-borehole radar data from metalliferous vein detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Zhaofa; Huai, Nan; Li, Jing; Zhao, Xueyu; Liu, Cai; Hu, Yingsa; Zhang, Ling; Hu, Zuzhi; Yang, Hui

2017-12-01

In the exploration and evaluation of the metalliferous veins with a cross-borehole radar system, traditional linear inversion methods (least squares inversion, LSQR) only get indirect parameters (permittivity, resistivity, or velocity) to estimate the target structure. They cannot accurately reflect the geological parameters of the metalliferous veins’ media properties. In order to get the intrinsic geological parameters and internal distribution, in this paper, we build a metalliferous veins model based on the stochastic effective medium theory, and carry out stochastic inversion and parameter estimation based on the Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. Compared with conventional LSQR, the stochastic inversion can get higher resolution inversion permittivity and velocity of the target body. We can estimate more accurately the distribution characteristics of abnormality and target internal parameters. It provides a new research idea to evaluate the properties of complex target media.

Global economic burden of schizophrenia: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Chong, Huey Yi; Teoh, Siew Li; Wu, David Bin-Chia; Kotirum, Surachai; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn

2016-01-01

Background Schizophrenia is one of the top 25 leading causes of disability worldwide in 2013. Despite its low prevalence, its health, social, and economic burden has been tremendous, not only for patients but also for families, caregivers, and the wider society. The magnitude of disease burden investigated in an economic burden study is an important source to policymakers in decision making. This study aims to systematically identify studies focusing on the economic burden of schizophrenia, describe the methods and data sources used, and summarize the findings of economic burden of schizophrenia. Methods A systematic review was performed for economic burden studies in schizophrenia using four electronic databases (Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and EconLit) from inception to August 31, 2014. Results A total of 56 articles were included in this review. More than 80% of the studies were conducted in high-income countries. Most studies had undertaken a retrospective- and prevalence-based study design. The bottom-up approach was commonly employed to determine cost, while human capital method was used for indirect cost estimation. Database and literature were the most commonly used data sources in cost estimation in high-income countries, while chart review and interview were the main data sources in low and middle-income countries. Annual costs for the schizophrenia population in the country ranged from US$94 million to US$102 billion. Indirect costs contributed to 50%–85% of the total costs associated with schizophrenia. The economic burden of schizophrenia was estimated to range from 0.02% to 1.65% of the gross domestic product. Conclusion The enormous economic burden in schizophrenia is suggestive of the inadequate provision of health care services to these patients. An informed decision is achievable with the increasing recognition among public and policymakers that schizophrenia is burdensome. This results in better resource allocation and the development of policy-oriented research for this highly disabling yet under-recognized mental health disease. PMID:26937191

An analysis of indirect genetic effects on adult body weight of the Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei at low rearing density.

PubMed

Luan, Sheng; Luo, Kun; Chai, Zhan; Cao, Baoxiang; Meng, Xianhong; Lu, Xia; Liu, Ning; Xu, Shengyu; Kong, Jie

2015-12-14

Our aim was to estimate the genetic parameters for the direct genetic effect (DGE) and indirect genetic effects (IGE) on adult body weight in the Pacific white shrimp. IGE is the heritable effect of an individual on the trait values of its group mates. To examine IGE on body weight, 4725 shrimp from 105 tagged families were tested in multiple small test groups (MSTG). Each family was separated into three groups (15 shrimp per group) that were randomly assigned to 105 concrete tanks with shrimp from two other families. To estimate breeding values, one large test group (OLTG) in a 300 m(2) circular concrete tank was used for the communal rearing of 8398 individuals from 105 families. Body weight was measured after a growth-test period of more than 200 days. Variance components for body weight in the MSTG programs were estimated using an animal model excluding or including IGE whereas variance components in the OLTG programs were estimated using a conventional animal model that included only DGE. The correlation of DGE between MSTG and OLTG programs was estimated by a two-trait animal model that included or excluded IGE. Heritability estimates for body weight from the conventional animal model in MSTG and OLTG programs were 0.26 ± 0.13 and 0.40 ± 0.06, respectively. The log likelihood ratio test revealed significant IGE on body weight. Total heritable variance was the sum of direct genetic variance (43.5%), direct-indirect genetic covariance (2.1%), and indirect genetic variance (54.4%). It represented 73% of the phenotypic variance and was more than two-fold greater than that (32%) obtained by using a classical heritability model for body weight. Correlations of DGE on body weight between MSTG and OLTG programs were intermediate regardless of whether IGE were included or not in the model. Our results suggest that social interactions contributed to a large part of the heritable variation in body weight. Small and non-significant direct-indirect genetic correlations implied that neutral or slightly cooperative heritable interactions, rather than competition, were dominant in this population but this may be due to the low rearing density.

Alternative Statistical Frameworks for Student Growth Percentile Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lockwood, J. R.; Castellano, Katherine E.

2015-01-01

This article suggests two alternative statistical approaches for estimating student growth percentiles (SGP). The first is to estimate percentile ranks of current test scores conditional on past test scores directly, by modeling the conditional cumulative distribution functions, rather than indirectly through quantile regressions. This would…

Healthcare resource use, direct and indirect costs of hypoglycemia in type 1 and type 2 diabetes, and nationwide projections. Results of the HYPOS-1 study.

PubMed

Giorda, C B; Rossi, M C; Ozzello, O; Gentile, S; Aglialoro, A; Chiambretti, A; Baccetti, F; Gentile, F M; Romeo, F; Lucisano, G; Nicolucci, A

2017-03-01

To obtain an accurate picture of the total costs of hypoglycemia, including the indirect costs and comparing the differences between type 1 (T1DM) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). HYPOS-1 was a multicenter, retrospective cohort study which analyzed the data of 2229 consecutive patients seen at 18 diabetes clinics. Data on healthcare resource use and indirect costs by diabetes type were collected via a questionnaire. The domains of inpatient admission and hospital stay, work days lost, and third-party assistance were also explored. Resource utilization was reported as estimated incidence rates (IRs) of hypoglycemic episodes per 100 person-years and estimated costs as IRs per person-years. For every 100 patients with T1DM, 9 emergency room (ER) visits and 6 emergency medical service calls for hypoglycemia were required per year; for every 100 patients with T2DM, 3 ER visits and 1 inpatient admission were required, with over 3 nights spent in hospital. Hypoglycemia led to 58 work days per 100 person-years lost by the patient or a family member in T1DM versus 19 in T2DM. The costs in T1DM totaled €90.99 per person-year and €62.04 in T2DM. Direct and indirect costs making up the total differed by type of diabetes (60% indirect costs in T1DM versus 43% in T2DM). The total cost associated with hypoglycemia in Italy is estimated to be €107 million per year. Indirect costs meaningfully contribute to the total costs associated with hypoglycemia. As compared with T1DM, T2DM requires fewer ER visits and incurs lower indirect costs but more frequent hospital use. Copyright © 2016 The Italian Society of Diabetology, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition, and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

2013-01-01

Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

Effects of cumulative stress and impulsivity on smoking status

PubMed Central

Ansell, Emily B.; Gu, Peihua; Tuit, Keri; Sinha, Rajita

2013-01-01

Objective The stress-vulnerability model of addiction predicts that environmental factors, such as cumulative stress, will result in individual adaptations that decrease self-control, increase impulsivity, and increase risk for addiction. Impulsivity and cumulative stress are risk factors for tobacco smoking that are rarely examined simultaneously in research. Methods We examined the indirect and direct effects of cumulative adversity in a community sample consisting of 291 men and women who participated in an assessment of cumulative stress, self-reported impulsivity, and smoking history. Data were analyzed using bootstrapping techniques to estimate indirect effects of stress on smoking via impulsivity. Results Cumulative adversity is associated with smoking status via direct effects and indirect effects through impulsivity scores. Additional models examining specific types of stress indicate contributions of traumatic stress and recent life events as well as chronic relationship stressors. Conclusions Overall, cumulative stress is associated with increased risk of smoking via increased impulsivity and via pathways independent of impulsivity. These findings support the stress-vulnerability model and highlight the utility of mediation models in assessing how, and for whom, cumulative stress increases risk of current cigarette smoking. Increasing self-control is a target for interventions with individuals who have experienced cumulative adversity. PMID:22389084

Direct and indirect cost of managing alzheimer’s disease and related dementias in the United States

PubMed Central

Deb, Arijita; Thornton, James Douglas; Sambamoorthi, Usha; Innes, Kim

2017-01-01

Introduction Care of individuals with Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Dementias (ADRD) poses special challenges. As the disease progresses, individuals with ADRD require increasing levels of medical care, caregiver support, and long-term care which can lead to substantial economic burden. Areas covered In this expert review, we synthesized findings from studies of costs of ADRD in the United States that were published between January 2006 and February 2017, highlighted major sources of variation in costs, identified knowledge gaps and briefly outlined directions for future research and implications for policy and program planning. Expert commentary A consistent finding of all studies comparing individuals with and without ADRD is that the average medical, non-medical, and indirect costs of individuals with ADRD are higher than those without ADRD, despite the differences in the methods of identifying ADRD, duration of the study, payer type and settings of study population. The economic burden of ADRD may be underestimated because many components such as direct non-medical costs for home safety modifications and adult day care services and indirect costs due to the adverse impact of ADRD on caregivers’ health and productivity are not included in cost estimates. PMID:28351177

Decomposition of the Total Effect in the Presence of Multiple Mediators and Interactions.

PubMed

Bellavia, Andrea; Valeri, Linda

2018-06-01

Mediation analysis allows decomposing a total effect into a direct effect of the exposure on the outcome and an indirect effect operating through a number of possible hypothesized pathways. Recent studies have provided formal definitions of direct and indirect effects when multiple mediators are of interest and have described parametric and semiparametric methods for their estimation. Investigating direct and indirect effects with multiple mediators, however, can be challenging in the presence of multiple exposure-mediator and mediator-mediator interactions. In this paper we derive a decomposition of the total effect that unifies mediation and interaction when multiple mediators are present. We illustrate the properties of the proposed framework in a secondary analysis of a pragmatic trial for the treatment of schizophrenia. The decomposition is employed to investigate the interplay of side effects and psychiatric symptoms in explaining the effect of antipsychotic medication on quality of life in schizophrenia patients. Our result offers a valuable tool to identify the proportions of total effect due to mediation and interaction when more than one mediator is present, providing the finest decomposition of the total effect that unifies multiple mediators and interactions.

Condition monitoring of an electro-magnetic brake using an artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gofran, T.; Neugebauer, P.; Schramm, D.

2017-10-01

This paper presents a data-driven approach to Condition Monitoring of Electromagnetic brakes without use of additional sensors. For safe and efficient operation of electric motor a regular evaluation and replacement of the friction surface of the brake is required. One such evaluation method consists of direct or indirect sensing of the air-gap between pressure plate and magnet. A larger gap is generally indicative of worn surface(s). Traditionally this has been accomplished by the use of additional sensors - making existing systems complex, cost- sensitive and difficult to maintain. In this work a feed-forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is learned with the electrical data of the brake by supervised learning method to estimate the air-gap. The ANN model is optimized on the training set and validated using the test set. The experimental results of estimated air-gap with accuracy of over 95% demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.

Stochastic determination of matrix determinants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorn, Sebastian; Enßlin, Torsten A.

2015-07-01

Matrix determinants play an important role in data analysis, in particular when Gaussian processes are involved. Due to currently exploding data volumes, linear operations—matrices—acting on the data are often not accessible directly but are only represented indirectly in form of a computer routine. Such a routine implements the transformation a data vector undergoes under matrix multiplication. While efficient probing routines to estimate a matrix's diagonal or trace, based solely on such computationally affordable matrix-vector multiplications, are well known and frequently used in signal inference, there is no stochastic estimate for its determinant. We introduce a probing method for the logarithm of a determinant of a linear operator. Our method rests upon a reformulation of the log-determinant by an integral representation and the transformation of the involved terms into stochastic expressions. This stochastic determinant determination enables large-size applications in Bayesian inference, in particular evidence calculations, model comparison, and posterior determination.

AXIALLY ORIENTED SECTIONS OF NUMMULITIDS: A TOOL TO INTERPRET LARGER BENTHIC FORAMINIFERAL DEPOSITS

PubMed Central

Hohenegger, Johann; Briguglio, Antonino

2015-01-01

The “critical shear velocity” and “settling velocity” of foraminiferal shells are important parameters for determining hydrodynamic conditions during deposition of Nummulites banks. These can be estimated by determining the size, shape, and density of nummulitid shells examined in axial sections cut perpendicular to the bedding plane. Shell size and shape can be determined directly from the shell diameter and thickness, but density must be calculated indirectly from the thin section. Calculations using the half-tori method approximate shell densities by equalizing the chamber volume of each half whorl, based on the half whorl’s lumen area and its center of gravity. Results from this method yield the same lumen volumes produced empirically by micro-computed tomography. The derived hydrodynamic parameters help estimate the minimum flow velocities needed to entrain nummulitid tests and provide a potential tool to account for the nature of their accumulations. PMID:26166914

AXIALLY ORIENTED SECTIONS OF NUMMULITIDS: A TOOL TO INTERPRET LARGER BENTHIC FORAMINIFERAL DEPOSITS.

PubMed

Hohenegger, Johann; Briguglio, Antonino

2012-04-01

The "critical shear velocity" and "settling velocity" of foraminiferal shells are important parameters for determining hydrodynamic conditions during deposition of Nummulites banks. These can be estimated by determining the size, shape, and density of nummulitid shells examined in axial sections cut perpendicular to the bedding plane. Shell size and shape can be determined directly from the shell diameter and thickness, but density must be calculated indirectly from the thin section. Calculations using the half-tori method approximate shell densities by equalizing the chamber volume of each half whorl, based on the half whorl's lumen area and its center of gravity. Results from this method yield the same lumen volumes produced empirically by micro-computed tomography. The derived hydrodynamic parameters help estimate the minimum flow velocities needed to entrain nummulitid tests and provide a potential tool to account for the nature of their accumulations.

Stochastic determination of matrix determinants.

PubMed

Dorn, Sebastian; Ensslin, Torsten A

2015-07-01

Matrix determinants play an important role in data analysis, in particular when Gaussian processes are involved. Due to currently exploding data volumes, linear operations-matrices-acting on the data are often not accessible directly but are only represented indirectly in form of a computer routine. Such a routine implements the transformation a data vector undergoes under matrix multiplication. While efficient probing routines to estimate a matrix's diagonal or trace, based solely on such computationally affordable matrix-vector multiplications, are well known and frequently used in signal inference, there is no stochastic estimate for its determinant. We introduce a probing method for the logarithm of a determinant of a linear operator. Our method rests upon a reformulation of the log-determinant by an integral representation and the transformation of the involved terms into stochastic expressions. This stochastic determinant determination enables large-size applications in Bayesian inference, in particular evidence calculations, model comparison, and posterior determination.

Radiative capture reactions via indirect methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhamedzhanov, A. M.; Rogachev, G. V.

2017-10-01

Many radiative capture reactions of astrophysical interest occur at such low energies that their direct measurement is hardly possible. Until now the only indirect method, which was used to determine the astrophysical factor of the astrophysical radiative capture process, was the Coulomb dissociation. In this paper we address another indirect method, which can provide information about resonant radiative capture reactions at astrophysically relevant energies. This method can be considered an extension of the Trojan horse method for resonant radiative capture reactions. The idea of the suggested indirect method is to use the indirect reaction A (a ,s γ )F to obtain information about the radiative capture reaction A (x ,γ )F , where a =(s x ) and F =(x A ) . The main advantage of using the indirect reactions is the absence of the penetrability factor in the channel x +A , which suppresses the low-energy cross sections of the A (x ,γ )F reactions and does not allow one to measure these reactions at astrophysical energies. A general formalism to treat indirect resonant radiative capture reactions is developed when only a few intermediate states contribute and a statistical approach cannot be applied. The indirect method requires coincidence measurements of the triple differential cross section, which is a function of the photon scattering angle, energy, and the scattering angle of the outgoing spectator particle s . Angular dependence of the triple differential cross section at fixed scattering angle of the spectator s is the angular γ -s correlation function. Using indirect resonant radiative capture reactions, one can obtain information about important astrophysical resonant radiative capture reactions such as (p ,γ ) , (α ,γ ) , and (n ,γ ) on stable and unstable isotopes. The indirect technique makes accessible low-lying resonances, which are close to the threshold, and even subthreshold bound states located at negative energies. In this paper, after developing the general formalism, we demonstrate the application of the indirect reaction 12C(6Li,d γ )16O proceeding through 1- and 2+ subthreshold bound states and resonances to obtain the information about the 12C(α ,γ )16O radiative capture at the astrophysically most effective energy 0.3 MeV, which is impossible using standard direct measurements. Feasibility of the suggested approach is discussed.

Noninvasive Fetal Electrocardiography Part II: Segmented-Beat Modulation Method for Signal Denoising

PubMed Central

Agostinelli, Angela; Sbrollini, Agnese; Burattini, Luca; Fioretti, Sandro; Di Nardo, Francesco; Burattini, Laura

2017-01-01

Background: Fetal well-being evaluation may be accomplished by monitoring cardiac activity through fetal electrocardiography. Direct fetal electrocardiography (acquired through scalp electrodes) is the gold standard but its invasiveness limits its clinical applicability. Instead, clinical use of indirect fetal electrocardiography (acquired through abdominal electrodes) is limited by its poor signal quality. Objective: Aim of this study was to evaluate the suitability of the Segmented-Beat Modulation Method to denoise indirect fetal electrocardiograms in order to achieve a signal-quality at least comparable to the direct ones. Method: Direct and indirect recordings, simultaneously acquired from 5 pregnant women during labor, were filtered with the Segmented-Beat Modulation Method and correlated in order to assess their morphological correspondence. Signal-to-noise ratio was used to quantify their quality. Results: Amplitude was higher in direct than indirect fetal electrocardiograms (median:104 µV vs. 22 µV; P=7.66·10-4), whereas noise was comparable (median:70 µV vs. 49 µV, P=0.45). Moreover, fetal electrocardiogram amplitude was significantly higher than affecting noise in direct recording (P=3.17·10-2) and significantly in indirect recording (P=1.90·10-3). Consequently, signal-to-noise ratio was initially higher for direct than indirect recordings (median:3.3 dB vs. -2.3 dB; P=3.90·10-3), but became lower after denoising of indirect ones (median:9.6 dB; P=9.84·10-4). Eventually, direct and indirect recordings were highly correlated (median: ρ=0.78; P<10-208), indicating that the two electrocardiograms were morphologically equivalent. Conclusion: Segmented-Beat Modulation Method is particularly useful for denoising of indirect fetal electrocardiogram and may contribute to the spread of this noninvasive technique in the clinical practice. PMID:28567129

Parameter estimation for stiff deterministic dynamical systems via ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Andrea; Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki

2014-10-01

A commonly encountered problem in numerous areas of applications is to estimate the unknown coefficients of a dynamical system from direct or indirect observations at discrete times of some of the components of the state vector. A related problem is to estimate unobserved components of the state. An egregious example of such a problem is provided by metabolic models, in which the numerous model parameters and the concentrations of the metabolites in tissue are to be estimated from concentration data in the blood. A popular method for addressing similar questions in stochastic and turbulent dynamics is the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a particle-based filtering method that generalizes classical Kalman filtering. In this work, we adapt the EnKF algorithm for deterministic systems in which the numerical approximation error is interpreted as a stochastic drift with variance based on classical error estimates of numerical integrators. This approach, which is particularly suitable for stiff systems where the stiffness may depend on the parameters, allows us to effectively exploit the parallel nature of particle methods. Moreover, we demonstrate how spatial prior information about the state vector, which helps the stability of the computed solution, can be incorporated into the filter. The viability of the approach is shown by computed examples, including a metabolic system modeling an ischemic episode in skeletal muscle, with a high number of unknown parameters.

Estimating the costs of induced abortion in Uganda: A model-based analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The demand for induced abortions in Uganda is high despite legal and moral proscriptions. Abortion seekers usually go to illegal, hidden clinics where procedures are performed in unhygienic environments by under-trained practitioners. These abortions, which are usually unsafe, lead to a high rate of severe complications and use of substantial, scarce healthcare resources. This study was performed to estimate the costs associated with induced abortions in Uganda. Methods A decision tree was developed to represent the consequences of induced abortion and estimate the costs of an average case. Data were obtained from a primary chart abstraction study, an on-going prospective study, and the published literature. Societal costs, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect (productivity) costs, costs to patients, and costs to the government were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty. Results The average societal cost per induced abortion (95% credibility range) was $177 ($140-$223). This is equivalent to $64 million in annual national costs. Of this, the average direct medical cost was $65 ($49-86) and the average direct non-medical cost was $19 ($16-$23). The average indirect cost was $92 ($57-$139). Patients incurred $62 ($46-$83) on average while government incurred $14 ($10-$20) on average. Conclusion Induced abortions are associated with substantial costs in Uganda and patients incur the bulk of the healthcare costs. This reinforces the case made by other researchers--that efforts by the government to reduce unsafe abortions by increasing contraceptive coverage or providing safe, legal abortions are critical. PMID:22145859

The Societal and Economic Value of Rotator Cuff Repair

PubMed Central

Mather, Richard C.; Koenig, Lane; Acevedo, Daniel; Dall, Timothy M.; Gallo, Paul; Romeo, Anthony; Tongue, John; Williams, Gerald

2013-01-01

Background: Although rotator cuff disease is a common musculoskeletal problem in the United States, the impact of this condition on earnings, missed workdays, and disability payments is largely unknown. This study examines the value of surgical treatment for full-thickness rotator cuff tears from a societal perspective. Methods: A Markov decision model was constructed to estimate lifetime direct and indirect costs associated with surgical and continued nonoperative treatment for symptomatic full-thickness rotator cuff tears. All patients were assumed to have been unresponsive to one six-week trial of nonoperative treatment prior to entering the model. Model assumptions were obtained from the literature and data analysis. We obtained estimates of indirect costs using national survey data and patient-reported outcomes. Four indirect costs were modeled: probability of employment, household income, missed workdays, and disability payments. Direct cost estimates were based on average Medicare reimbursements with adjustments to an all-payer population. Effectiveness was expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Results: The age-weighted mean total societal savings from rotator cuff repair compared with nonoperative treatment was $13,771 over a patient’s lifetime. Savings ranged from $77,662 for patients who are thirty to thirty-nine years old to a net cost to society of $11,997 for those who are seventy to seventy-nine years old. In addition, surgical treatment results in an average improvement of 0.62 QALY. Societal savings were highly sensitive to age, with savings being positive at the age of sixty-one years and younger. The estimated lifetime societal savings of the approximately 250,000 rotator cuff repairs performed in the U.S. each year was $3.44 billion. Conclusions: Rotator cuff repair for full-thickness tears produces net societal cost savings for patients under the age of sixty-one years and greater QALYs for all patients. Rotator cuff repair is cost-effective for all populations. The results of this study should not be interpreted as suggesting that all rotator cuff tears require surgery. Rather, the results show that rotator cuff repair has an important role in minimizing the societal burden of rotator cuff disease. PMID:24257656

Coastal Water Quality Modeling in Tidal Lake: Revisited with Groundwater Intrusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, C.

2016-12-01

A new method for predicting the temporal and spatial variation of water quality, with accounting for a groundwater effect, has been proposed and applied to a water body partially connected to macro-tidal coastal waters in Korea. The method consists of direct measurement of environmental parameters, and it indirectly incorporates a nutrients budget analysis to estimate the submarine groundwater fluxes. Three-dimensional numerical modeling of water quality has been used with the directly collected data and the indirectly estimated groundwater fluxes. The applied area is Saemangeum tidal lake that is enclosed by 33km-long sea dyke with tidal openings at two water gates. Many investigations of groundwater impact reveal that 10 50% of nutrient loading in coastal waters comes from submarine groundwater, particularly in the macro-tidal flat, as in the west coast of Korea. Long-term monitoring of coastal water quality signals the possibility of groundwater influence on salinity reversal and on the excess mass outbalancing the normal budget in Saemangeum tidal lake. In the present study, we analyze the observed data to examine the influence of submarine groundwater, and then a box model is demonstrated for quantifying the influx and efflux. A three-dimensional numerical model has been applied to reproduce the process of groundwater dispersal and its effect on the water quality of Saemangeum tidal lake. The results show that groundwater influx during the summer monsoon then contributes significantly, 20% more than during dry season, to water quality in the tidal lake.

Indirect methods for reference interval determination - review and recommendations.

PubMed

Jones, Graham R D; Haeckel, Rainer; Loh, Tze Ping; Sikaris, Ken; Streichert, Thomas; Katayev, Alex; Barth, Julian H; Ozarda, Yesim

2018-04-19

Reference intervals are a vital part of the information supplied by clinical laboratories to support interpretation of numerical pathology results such as are produced in clinical chemistry and hematology laboratories. The traditional method for establishing reference intervals, known as the direct approach, is based on collecting samples from members of a preselected reference population, making the measurements and then determining the intervals. An alternative approach is to perform analysis of results generated as part of routine pathology testing and using appropriate statistical techniques to determine reference intervals. This is known as the indirect approach. This paper from a working group of the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) Committee on Reference Intervals and Decision Limits (C-RIDL) aims to summarize current thinking on indirect approaches to reference intervals. The indirect approach has some major potential advantages compared with direct methods. The processes are faster, cheaper and do not involve patient inconvenience, discomfort or the risks associated with generating new patient health information. Indirect methods also use the same preanalytical and analytical techniques used for patient management and can provide very large numbers for assessment. Limitations to the indirect methods include possible effects of diseased subpopulations on the derived interval. The IFCC C-RIDL aims to encourage the use of indirect methods to establish and verify reference intervals, to promote publication of such intervals with clear explanation of the process used and also to support the development of improved statistical techniques for these studies.

The global economic burden of diabetes in adults aged 20-79 years: a cost-of-illness study.

PubMed

Bommer, Christian; Heesemann, Esther; Sagalova, Vera; Manne-Goehler, Jennifer; Atun, Rifat; Bärnighausen, Till; Vollmer, Sebastian

2017-06-01

Differences in methods and data used in past studies have limited comparisons of the cost of illness of diabetes across countries. We estimate the full global economic burden of diabetes in adults aged 20-79 years in 2015, using a unified framework across all countries. Our objective was to highlight patterns of diabetes-associated costs as well as to identify the need for further research in low-income regions. Epidemiological and economic data for 184 countries were used to estimate the global economic burden of diabetes, regardless of diabetes type. Direct costs were derived using a top-down approach based on WHO general health expenditure figures and prevalence data from the 2015 International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas. Indirect costs were assessed using a human-capital approach, including diabetes-associated morbidity and premature mortality. We estimate the global cost of diabetes for 2015 was US$1·31 trillion (95% CI 1·28-1·36) or 1·8% (95% CI 1·8-1·9) of global gross domestic product (GDP). Notably, indirect costs accounted for 34·7% (95% CI 34·7-35·0) of the total burden, although substantial variations existed both in the share and the composition of indirect costs across countries. North America was the most affected region relative to GDP and also the largest contributor to global absolute costs. However, on average, the economic burden as percentage of GDP was larger in middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Our results suggest a substantial global economic burden of diabetes. Although limited data were available for low-income and middle-income countries, our findings suggest that large diabetes-associated costs are not only a problem in high-income settings but also affect poorer world regions. None. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Debiasing comparative optimism and increasing worry for health outcomes.

PubMed

Rose, Jason P

2012-11-01

Comparative optimism - feeling at less personal risk for negative outcomes than one's peers - has been linked to reduced prevention efforts. This study examined a novel debiasing technique aimed at simultaneously reducing both indirectly and directly measured comparative optimism. Before providing direct comparative estimates, participants provided absolute self and peer estimates in a joint format (same computer screen) or a separate format (different computer screens). Relative to the separate format condition, participants in the joint format condition showed (1) lower comparative optimism in absolute/indirect measures, (2) lower direct comparative optimism, and (3) heightened worry. Implications for risk perception screening are discussed.

An improved recommendation algorithm via weakening indirect linkage effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Guang; Qiu, Tian; Shen, Xiao-Quan

2015-07-01

We propose an indirect-link-weakened mass diffusion method (IMD), by considering the indirect linkage and the source object heterogeneity effect in the mass diffusion (MD) recommendation method. Experimental results on the MovieLens, Netflix, and RYM datasets show that, the IMD method greatly improves both the recommendation accuracy and diversity, compared with a heterogeneity-weakened MD method (HMD), which only considers the source object heterogeneity. Moreover, the recommendation accuracy of the cold objects is also better elevated in the IMD than the HMD method. It suggests that eliminating the redundancy induced by the indirect linkages could have a prominent effect on the recommendation efficiency in the MD method. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11175079) and the Young Scientist Training Project of Jiangxi Province, China (Grant No. 20133BCB23017).

The direct and indirect cost of diabetes in Italy: a prevalence probabilistic approach.

PubMed

Marcellusi, A; Viti, R; Mecozzi, A; Mennini, F S

2016-03-01

Diabetes mellitus is a chronic degenerative disease associated with a high risk of chronic complications and comorbidities. However, very few data are available on the associated cost. The objective of this study is to identify the available information on the epidemiology of the disease and estimate the average annual cost incurred by the National Health Service and Society for the Treatment of Diabetes in Italy. A probabilistic prevalence cost of illness model was developed to calculate an aggregate measure of the economic burden associated with the disease, in terms of direct medical costs (drugs, hospitalizations, monitoring and adverse events) and indirect costs (absenteeism and early retirement). A systematic review of the literature was conducted to determine both the epidemiological and economic data. Furthermore, a one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis with 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations was performed to test the robustness of the results and define a 95% CI. The model estimated a prevalence of 2.6 million patients under drug therapies in Italy. The total economic burden of diabetic patients in Italy amounted to €20.3 billion/year (95% CI €18.61 to €22.29 billion), 54% of which are associated with indirect costs (95% CI €10.10 to €11.62 billion) and 46% with direct costs only (95% CI €8.11 to €11.06 billion). This is the first study conducted in Italy aimed at estimating the direct and indirect cost of diabetes with a probabilistic prevalence approach. As might be expected, the lack of information means that the real burden of diabetes is partly underestimated, especially with regard to indirect costs. However, this is a useful approach for policy makers to understand the economic implications of diabetes treatment in Italy.

The cost of headache disorders in Europe: the Eurolight project.

PubMed

Linde, M; Gustavsson, A; Stovner, L J; Steiner, T J; Barré, J; Katsarava, Z; Lainez, J M; Lampl, C; Lantéri-Minet, M; Rastenyte, D; Ruiz de la Torre, E; Tassorelli, C; Andrée, C

2012-05-01

Headache disorders are very common, but their monetary costs in Europe are unknown. We performed the first comprehensive estimation of how economic resources are lost to headache in Europe.   From November 2008 to August 2009, a cross-sectional survey was conducted in eight countries representing 55% of the adult EU population. Participation rates varied between 11% and 59%. In total, 8412 questionnaires contributed to this analysis. Using bottom-up methodology, we estimated direct (medications, outpatient health care, hospitalization and investigations) and indirect (work absenteeism and reduced productivity at work) annual per-person costs. Prevalence data, simultaneously collected and, for migraine, also derived from a systematic review, were used to impute national costs.   Mean per-person annual costs were €1222 for migraine (95% CI 1055-1389; indirect costs 93%), €303 for tension-type headache (TTH, 95% CI 230-376; indirect costs 92%), €3561 for medication-overuse headache (MOH, 95% CI 2487-4635; indirect costs 92%), and €253 for other headaches (95% CI 99-407; indirect costs 82%). In the EU, the total annual cost of headache amongst adults aged 18-65 years was calculated, according to our prevalence estimates, at €173 billion, apportioned to migraine (€111 billion; 64%), TTH (€21 billion; 12%), MOH (€37 billion; 21%) and other headaches (€3 billion; 2%). Using the 15% systematic review prevalence of migraine, calculated costs were somewhat lower (migraine €50 billion, all headache €112 billion annually).   Headache disorders are prominent health-related drivers of immense economic losses for the EU. This has immediate implications for healthcare policy. Health care for headache can be both improved and cost saving. © 2011 The Author(s). European Journal of Neurology © 2011 EFNS.

Development of a thermal gradient cloud condensation nucleus spectrometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leu, Ming-Taun; Friedl, R.

2004-01-01

Droplet clouds are one of the most important factors controlling the albedo and hence the temperature of out planet. Anthropogenic aerosols, such as black carbon (BC) organic carbon (OC) and sulfate, have a strong influence on cloud albedo. IPCC (2001) has estimated the global mean forcing from aerosols to be potentially as large as that of green house gases but opposite in sign. However, the uncertainties associated with the indirect aerosol forcing preclude a quantitative estimate. An additional impact on the indirect aerosol forcing, not quantified by IPCC, arises from recently identified chemical factors, for examples, interactions of atmospheric soluble gases, slightly soluble solutes, and organic substance with aerosols, which may influence the formation of cloud droplets. Recent studies suggest that inclusion of chemical effects on aerosol droplets. We plan to conduct several critical laboratory experiments that will reduce the uncertainty associated with indirect radiative forcing due to chemical modification of sulfate and BC aerosols by ambient gases.

Near-field electromagnetic holography for high-resolution analysis of network interactions in neuronal tissue

PubMed Central

Kjeldsen, Henrik D.; Kaiser, Marcus; Whittington, Miles A.

2015-01-01

Background Brain function is dependent upon the concerted, dynamical interactions between a great many neurons distributed over many cortical subregions. Current methods of quantifying such interactions are limited by consideration only of single direct or indirect measures of a subsample of all neuronal population activity. New method Here we present a new derivation of the electromagnetic analogy to near-field acoustic holography allowing high-resolution, vectored estimates of interactions between sources of electromagnetic activity that significantly improves this situation. In vitro voltage potential recordings were used to estimate pseudo-electromagnetic energy flow vector fields, current and energy source densities and energy dissipation in reconstruction planes at depth into the neural tissue parallel to the recording plane of the microelectrode array. Results The properties of the reconstructed near-field estimate allowed both the utilization of super-resolution techniques to increase the imaging resolution beyond that of the microelectrode array, and facilitated a novel approach to estimating causal relationships between activity in neocortical subregions. Comparison with existing methods The holographic nature of the reconstruction method allowed significantly better estimation of the fine spatiotemporal detail of neuronal population activity, compared with interpolation alone, beyond the spatial resolution of the electrode arrays used. Pseudo-energy flow vector mapping was possible with high temporal precision, allowing a near-realtime estimate of causal interaction dynamics. Conclusions Basic near-field electromagnetic holography provides a powerful means to increase spatial resolution from electrode array data with careful choice of spatial filters and distance to reconstruction plane. More detailed approaches may provide the ability to volumetrically reconstruct activity patterns on neuronal tissue, but the ability to extract vectored data with the method presented already permits the study of dynamic causal interactions without bias from any prior assumptions on anatomical connectivity. PMID:26026581

Simulation of the Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate Due to Aerosols by the Two-Way Coupled WRF-CMAQ over the Eastern United States

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, the shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) and longwave cloud forcing (LWCF) are estimated with the newly developed two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ over the eastern United States. Preliminary indirect aerosol forcing has been successfully implemented in WRF-CMAQ. The comparisons...

Does Education Affect Happiness? Evidence for Spain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunado, Juncal; de Gracia, Fernando Perez

2012-01-01

In this paper we study the impact of education on happiness in Spain using individual-level data from the European Social Survey, by means of estimating Ordinal Logit Models. We find both direct and indirect effects of education on happiness. First, we find an indirect effect of education on happiness through income and labour status. That is, we…

Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

2017-11-01

Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods, including exceptionally large non-systematic events, were reasonably estimated with the proposed approach. In addition, by accounting for uncertainties in each modeling step, one is able to obtain a better understanding of the influential factors in large flood formation dynamics.

Evidence for Limited Indirect Aerosol Forcing in Stratocumulus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Andrew S.; Toon, O. B.; Stevens, D. E.

2003-01-01

Increases in cloud cover and condensed water contribute more than half of the indirect aerosol effect in an ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations estimating the global radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols. We use detailed simulations of marine stratocumulus clouds and airborne observations of ship tracks to show that increases in cloud cover and condensed water in reality are far less than represented by the GCM ensemble. Our results offer an explanation for recent simplified inverse climate calculations indicating that indirect aerosol effects are greatly exaggerated in GCMs.

Optimal filtering and Bayesian detection for friction-based diagnostics in machines.

PubMed

Ray, L R; Townsend, J R; Ramasubramanian, A

2001-01-01

Non-model-based diagnostic methods typically rely on measured signals that must be empirically related to process behavior or incipient faults. The difficulty in interpreting a signal that is indirectly related to the fundamental process behavior is significant. This paper presents an integrated non-model and model-based approach to detecting when process behavior varies from a proposed model. The method, which is based on nonlinear filtering combined with maximum likelihood hypothesis testing, is applicable to dynamic systems whose constitutive model is well known, and whose process inputs are poorly known. Here, the method is applied to friction estimation and diagnosis during motion control in a rotating machine. A nonlinear observer estimates friction torque in a machine from shaft angular position measurements and the known input voltage to the motor. The resulting friction torque estimate can be analyzed directly for statistical abnormalities, or it can be directly compared to friction torque outputs of an applicable friction process model in order to diagnose faults or model variations. Nonlinear estimation of friction torque provides a variable on which to apply diagnostic methods that is directly related to model variations or faults. The method is evaluated experimentally by its ability to detect normal load variations in a closed-loop controlled motor driven inertia with bearing friction and an artificially-induced external line contact. Results show an ability to detect statistically significant changes in friction characteristics induced by normal load variations over a wide range of underlying friction behaviors.

Estimating direct and indirect costs of premenstrual syndrome.

PubMed

Borenstein, Jeff; Chiou, Chiun-Fang; Dean, Bonnie; Wong, John; Wade, Sally

2005-01-01

To quantify the economic impact of premenstrual syndrome (PMS) on the employer. Data were collected from 374 women aged 18-45 with regular menses. Direct costs were quantified using administrative claims of these patients and the Medicare Fee Schedule. Indirect costs were quantified by both self-reported days of work missed and lost productivity at work. Regression analyses were used to develop a model to project PMS-related direct and indirect costs. A total of 29.6% (n = 111) of the participants were diagnosed with PMS. A PMS diagnosis was associated with an average annual increase of $59 in direct costs (P < 0.026) and $4333 in indirect costs per patient (P < 0.0001) compared with patients without PMS. A PMS diagnosis correlated with a modest increase in direct medical costs and a large increase in indirect costs.

Systemic estimation of the effect of photodynamic therapy of cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kogan, Eugenia A.; Meerovich, Gennadii A.; Torshina, Nadezgda L.; Loschenov, Victor B.; Volkova, Anna I.; Posypanova, Anna M.

1997-12-01

The effects of photodynamic therapy (PDT) of cancer needs objective estimation and its unification in experimental as well as in clinical studies. They must include not only macroscopical changes but also the complex of following morphological criteria: (1) the level of direct tumor damage (direct necrosis and apoptosis); (2) the level of indirect tumor damage (ischemic necrosis); (3) the signs of vascular alterations; (4) the local and systemic antiblastome resistance; (5) the proliferative activity and malignant potential of survival tumor tissue. We have performed different regimes PDT using phthalocyanine derivatives. The complex of morphological methods (Ki-67, p53, c-myc, bcl-2) was used. Obtained results showed the connection of the tilted morphological criteria with tumor regression.

Variation in costs of cone beam CT examinations among healthcare systems.

PubMed

Christell, H; Birch, S; Hedesiu, M; Horner, K; Ivanauskaité, D; Nackaerts, O; Rohlin, M; Lindh, C

2012-10-01

To analyse the costs of cone beam CT (CBCT) in different healthcare systems for patients with different clinical conditions. Costs were calculated for CBCT performed in Cluj (Romania), Leuven (Belgium), Malmö (Sweden) and Vilnius (Lithuania) on patients with (i) a maxillary canine with eruption disturbance, (ii) an area with tooth loss prior to implant treatment or (iii) a lower wisdom tooth planned for removal. The costs were calculated using an approach based on the identification, measurement and valuation of all resources used in the delivery of the service that combined direct costs (capital equipment, accommodation, labour) with indirect costs (patients' and accompanying persons' time, "out of pocket" costs for examination fee and visits). The estimates for direct and indirect costs varied among the healthcare systems, being highest in Malmö and lowest in Leuven. Variation in direct costs was mainly owing to different capital costs for the CBCT equipment arising from differences in purchase prices (range €148 000-227 000). Variation in indirect costs were mainly owing to examination fees (range €0-102.02). Cost analysis provides an important input for economic evaluations of diagnostic methods in different healthcare systems and for planning of service delivery. Additionally, it enables decision-makers to separate variations in costs between systems into those due to external influences and those due to policy decisions. A cost evaluation of a dental radiographic method cannot be generalized from one healthcare system to another, but must take into account these specific circumstances.

The role of a FADS1 polymorphism in the association of fatty acid blood levels, BMI and blood pressure in young children—Analyses based on path models

PubMed Central

Dering, Carmen; Siani, Alfonso; Russo, Paola; Kaprio, Jaakko; Risé, Patrizia; Moreno, Luis A.; De Henauw, Stefaan; Mehlig, Kirsten; Veidebaum, Toomas; Molnár, Denés; Tornaritis, Michael; Iacoviello, Licia; Pitsiladis, Yannis; Foraita, Ronja; Börnhorst, Claudia

2017-01-01

Background The recent obesity epidemic in children also showed an increase in the prevalence of hypertension. As blood pressure (BP) is associated with (long-chain) polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC PUFA), genetic variation in desaturase enzymes being involved in the synthesis of LC PUFA may be associated with BP. This study aimed to investigate the direct effects (independent of mediating variables) and indirect effects (mediated through intermediate variables) of a common variant in the FADS1 gene, rs174546, known to affect delta-5 desaturase (D5D) activity on PUFA level, body mass index (BMI) and BP. Methods A subsample of the IDEFICS (Identification and prevention of dietary- and lifestyle-induced health effects in children and infants) baseline survey including 520 children aged 2 to <10 years from six European countries was included. The association between rs174546 (T

The economic costs of alcohol consumption in Thailand, 2006.

PubMed

Thavorncharoensap, Montarat; Teerawattananon, Yot; Yothasamut, Jomkwan; Lertpitakpong, Chanida; Thitiboonsuwan, Khannika; Neramitpitagkul, Prapag; Chaikledkaew, Usa

2010-06-09

There is evidence that the adverse consequences of alcohol impose a substantial economic burden on societies worldwide. Given the lack of generalizability of study results across different settings, many attempts have been made to estimate the economic costs of alcohol for various settings; however, these have mostly been confined to industrialized countries. To our knowledge, there are a very limited number of well-designed studies which estimate the economic costs of alcohol consumption in developing countries, including Thailand. Therefore, this study aims to estimate these economic costs, in Thailand, 2006. This is a prevalence-based, cost-of-illness study. The estimated costs in this study included both direct and indirect costs. Direct costs included health care costs, costs of law enforcement, and costs of property damage due to road-traffic accidents. Indirect costs included costs of productivity loss due to premature mortality, and costs of reduced productivity due to absenteeism and presenteeism (reduced on-the-job productivity). The total economic cost of alcohol consumption in Thailand in 2006 was estimated at 156,105.4 million baht (9,627 million US$ PPP) or about 1.99% of the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Indirect costs outweigh direct costs, representing 96% of the total cost. The largest cost attributable to alcohol consumption is that of productivity loss due to premature mortality (104,128 million baht/6,422 million US$ PPP), followed by cost of productivity loss due to reduced productivity (45,464.6 million baht/2,804 million US$ PPP), health care cost (5,491.2 million baht/339 million US$ PPP), cost of property damage as a result of road traffic accidents (779.4 million baht/48 million US$ PPP), and cost of law enforcement (242.4 million baht/15 million US$ PPP), respectively. The results from the sensitivity analysis revealed that the cost ranges from 115,160.4 million baht to 214,053.0 million baht (7,102.1 - 13,201 million US$ PPP) depending on the methods and assumptions employed. Alcohol imposes a substantial economic burden on Thai society, and according to these findings, the Thai government needs to pay significantly more attention to implementing more effective alcohol policies/interventions in order to reduce the negative consequences associated with alcohol.

Economic burden of diabetes mellitus in the WHO African region

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background In 2000, the prevalence of diabetes among the 46 countries of the WHO African Region was estimated at 7.02 million people. Evidence from North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean indicates that diabetes exerts a heavy health and economic burden on society. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of such evidence in the WHO African Region. The objective of this study was to estimate the economic burden associated with diabetes mellitus in the countries in the African Region. Methods Drawing information from various secondary sources, this study used standard cost-of-illness methods to estimate: (a) the direct costs, i.e. those borne by the health systems and the families in directly addressing the problem; and (b) the indirect costs, i.e. the losses in productivity attributable to premature mortality, permanent disability and temporary disability caused by the disease. Prevalence estimates of diabetes for the year 2000 were used to calculate direct and indirect costs of diabetes mellitus. A discount rate of 3% was used to convert future earnings lost into their present values. The economic burden analysis was done for three groups of countries, i.e. 6 countries whose gross national income (GNI) per capita was greater than 8000 international dollars (i.e. in purchasing power parity), 6 countries with Int$2000–7999 and 33 countries with less than Int$2000. GNI for Zimbabwe was missing. Results The 7.02 million cases of diabetes recorded by countries of the African Region in 2000 resulted in a total economic loss of Int$25.51 billion (PPP). Approximately 43.65%, 10.03% and 46.32% of that loss was incurred by groups 1, 2 and 3 countries, respectively. This translated into grand total economic loss of Int$11,431.6, Int$4,770.6 and Int$ 2,144.3 per diabetes case per year in the three groups respectively. Conclusion In spite of data limitations, the estimates reported here show that diabetes imposes a substantial economic burden on countries of the WHO African Region. That heavy burden underscores the urgent need for increased investments in the prevention and management of diabetes. PMID:19335903

Reflection imaging of China ink-perfused brain vasculature using confocal laser-scanning microscopy after clarification of brain tissue by the Spalteholz method.

PubMed

Gutierre, R C; Vannucci Campos, D; Mortara, R A; Coppi, A A; Arida, R M

2017-04-01

Confocal laser-scanning microscopy is a useful tool for visualizing neurons and glia in transparent preparations of brain tissue from laboratory animals. Currently, imaging capillaries and venules in transparent brain tissues requires the use of fluorescent proteins. Here, we show that vessels can be imaged by confocal laser-scanning microscopy in transparent cortical, hippocampal and cerebellar preparations after clarification of China ink-injected specimens by the Spalteholz method. This method may be suitable for global, three-dimensional, quantitative analyses of vessels, including stereological estimations of total volume and length and of surface area of vessels, which constitute indirect approaches to investigate angiogenesis. © 2017 Anatomical Society.

Investigation of the SCS-CN initial abstraction ratio using a Monte Carlo simulation for the derived flood frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Chiarello, V.; Galeati, G.

2014-12-01

Peak discharges estimates for a given return period are of primary importance in engineering practice for risk assessment and hydraulic structure design. Different statistical methods are chosen here for the assessment of flood frequency curve: one indirect technique based on the extreme rainfall event analysis, the Peak Over Threshold (POT) model and the Annual Maxima approach as direct techniques using river discharge data. In the framework of the indirect method, a Monte Carlo simulation approach is adopted to determine a derived frequency distribution of peak runoff using a probabilistic formulation of the SCS-CN method as stochastic rainfall-runoff model. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate a sample of different runoff events from different stochastic combination of rainfall depth, storm duration, and initial loss inputs. The distribution of the rainfall storm events is assumed to follow the GP law whose parameters are estimated through GEV's parameters of annual maximum data. The evaluation of the initial abstraction ratio is investigated since it is one of the most questionable assumption in the SCS-CN model and plays a key role in river basin characterized by high-permeability soils, mainly governed by infiltration excess mechanism. In order to take into account the uncertainty of the model parameters, this modified approach, that is able to revise and re-evaluate the original value of the initial abstraction ratio, is implemented. In the POT model the choice of the threshold has been an essential issue, mainly based on a compromise between bias and variance. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution fitted to the annual maxima discharges is therefore compared with the Pareto distributed peaks to check the suitability of the frequency of occurrence representation. The methodology is applied to a large dam in the Serchio river basin, located in the Tuscany Region. The application has shown as Monte Carlo simulation technique can be a useful tool to provide more robust estimation of the results obtained by direct statistical methods.

Direct and indirect costs of nonfatal road traffic injuries in Iran: A population-based study.

PubMed

Karimi, Hasti; Soleyman-Jahi, Saeed; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin; Amin-Esmaeili, Masoumeh; Sharifi, Vandad; Hajebi, Ahmad; Saadat, Soheil; Akbari Sari, Ali; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa

2017-05-19

The objective of this study was to assess the incidence rate as well as direct and indirect costs of nonfatal road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Iran in 2011. Data from the 2011 national household survey were used. In this survey, data on demographics, history, and costs of injury were obtained in 2 steps: first, direct face-to-face interview and second, telephone calls. We estimated the incidence rate of nonfatal RTIs in this year. The direct costs included medical care as well as nonmedical costs paid by the patient or insurance services. The indirect costs were estimated by considering the cost of absence from work or education. We also used logistic regression analyses to investigate risk factors of nonfatal RTIs. We found 76 nonfatal RTI cases (0.96%) out of 7,886 whole reference study cases. These 76 injured patients had a history of RTI in the preceding 3 months. The annual incidence of RTIs was estimated at 3.84%. The mean age of RTI cases was 28.5 ± 10.6 and 88.16% of them were male. Male gender was a major risk factor (odds ratio [OR] = 9.64, 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.79-19.41) and marriage was a protective factor (OR = 0.44, 95% CI, 0.28-0.70) for RTI. The medians of direct, indirect, and total costs were US$214, US$163, and US$387, respectively. The total cost of nonfatal RTIs in Iran was estimated at 1.29% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011. In Iran, nonfatal RTIs imposed a total cost of almost US$7 billion to the country for one year. Extension and more serious implementation of preventive measurements seem necessary to decrease this notable burden of RTIs.

Evaluating the total costs of chemotherapy-induced toxicity: results from a pilot study with ovarian cancer patients.

PubMed

Calhoun, E A; Chang, C H; Welshman, E E; Fishman, D A; Lurain, J R; Bennett, C L

2001-01-01

While chemotherapy-related toxicities affect cancer patients' activities of daily living and result in large expenditures of medical care for treatment, few studies have assessed the out-of-pocket and indirect costs incurred by patients who experience toxicity. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of obtaining detailed and comprehensive cost information from patients who experienced neutropenia, thrombocytopenia, or neurotoxicity during treatment. Ovarian cancer patients who experienced chemotherapy-associated hematologic or neurologic toxicities were asked to record detailed information about hospitalization, laboratories, physician visits, phone calls, home visits, medication, medical devices, lost productivity, and caregivers. Resource estimates were converted into cost units, with direct medical cost estimates based on hospital cost-accounting data and indirect costs (i.e., productivity loss) on modified labor force, employment, and earnings data. Direct medical costs were highest for neutropenia (mean of $7,546/episode), intermediate for thrombocytopenia (mean of $3,268/episode), and lowest for neurotoxicity (mean of $688/episode). Indirect costs relating to patient and caregiver work loss and payments for caregiver support were substantial, accounting for $4,220, $3,834, and $4,282 for patients who developed neurotoxicity, neutropenia, and thrombocytopenia, respectively. The total costs of chemotherapy-related neurotoxicity, neutropenia, and thrombocytopenia were $4,908, $11,830, and $7,550. Our study has shown that, with the assistance of patients who are experiencing toxicity, estimation of the total costs of cancer-related toxicities is feasible. Indirect costs, while not included in prior estimates of the costs of toxicity studies, accounted for 34% to 86% of the total costs of cancer supportive care.

The cost of clinical mastitis in the first 30 days of lactation: An economic modeling tool.

PubMed

Rollin, E; Dhuyvetter, K C; Overton, M W

2015-12-01

Clinical mastitis results in considerable economic losses for dairy producers and is most commonly diagnosed in early lactation. The objective of this research was to estimate the economic impact of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation for a representative US dairy. A deterministic partial budget model was created to estimate direct and indirect costs per case of clinical mastitis occurring during the first 30 days of lactation. Model inputs were selected from the available literature, or when none were available, from herd data. The average case of clinical mastitis resulted in a total economic cost of $444, including $128 in direct costs and $316 in indirect costs. Direct costs included diagnostics ($10), therapeutics ($36), non-saleable milk ($25), veterinary service ($4), labor ($21), and death loss ($32). Indirect costs included future milk production loss ($125), premature culling and replacement loss ($182), and future reproductive loss ($9). Accurate decision making regarding mastitis control relies on understanding the economic impacts of clinical mastitis, especially the longer term indirect costs that represent 71% of the total cost per case of mastitis. Future milk production loss represents 28% of total cost, and future culling and replacement loss represents 41% of the total cost of a case of clinical mastitis. In contrast to older estimates, these values represent the current dairy economic climate, including milk price ($0.461/kg), feed price ($0.279/kg DM (dry matter)), and replacement costs ($2,094/head), along with the latest published estimates on the production and culling effects of clinical mastitis. This economic model is designed to be customized for specific dairy producers and their herd characteristics to better aid them in developing mastitis control strategies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The issues of current rainfall estimation techniques in mountain natural multi-hazard investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuo, Lu; Han, Dawei; Chen, Ningsheng; Wang, Tao

2017-04-01

Mountain hazards (e.g., landslides, debris flows, and floods) induced by rainfall are complex phenomena that require good knowledge of rainfall representation at different spatiotemporal scales. This study reveals rainfall estimation from gauges is rather unrepresentative over a large spatial area in mountain regions. As a result, the conventional practice of adopting the triggering threshold for hazard early warning purposes is insufficient. The main reason is because of the huge orographic influence on rainfall distribution. Modern rainfall estimation methods such as numerical weather prediction modelling and remote sensing utilising radar from the space or on land are able to provide spatially more representative rainfall information in mountain areas. But unlike rain gauges, they only indirectly provide rainfall measurements. Remote sensing suffers from many sources of errors such as weather conditions, attenuation and sampling methods, while numerical weather prediction models suffer from spatiotemporal and amplitude errors depending on the model physics, dynamics, and model configuration. A case study based on Sichuan, China is used to illustrate the significant difference among the three aforementioned rainfall estimation methods. We argue none of those methods can be relied on individually, and the challenge is on how to make the full utilisation of the three methods conjunctively because each of them only provides partial information. We propose that a data fusion approach should be adopted based on the Bayesian inference method. However such an approach requires the uncertainty information from all those estimation techniques which still need extensive research. We hope this study will raise the awareness of this important issue and highlight the knowledge gap that should be filled in so that such a challenging problem could be tackled collectively by the community.

Comparing Indirect Effects in Different Groups in Single-Group and Multi-Group Structural Equation Models

PubMed Central

Ryu, Ehri; Cheong, Jeewon

2017-01-01

In this article, we evaluated the performance of statistical methods in single-group and multi-group analysis approaches for testing group difference in indirect effects and for testing simple indirect effects in each group. We also investigated whether the performance of the methods in the single-group approach was affected when the assumption of equal variance was not satisfied. The assumption was critical for the performance of the two methods in the single-group analysis: the method using a product term for testing the group difference in a single path coefficient, and the Wald test for testing the group difference in the indirect effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals in the single-group approach and all methods in the multi-group approach were not affected by the violation of the assumption. We compared the performance of the methods and provided recommendations. PMID:28553248

Control methods and systems for indirect evaporative coolers

DOEpatents

Woods, Jason; Kozubal, Erik

2015-09-22

A control method for operating an indirect evaporative cooler to control temperature and humidity. The method includes operating an airflow control device to provide supply air at a flow rate to a liquid desiccant dehumidifier. The supply air flows through the dehumidifier and an indirect evaporative cooler prior to exiting an outlet into a space. The method includes operating a pump to provide liquid desiccant to the liquid desiccant dehumidifier and sensing a temperature of an airstream at the outlet of the indirect evaporative cooler. The method includes comparing the temperature of the airstream at the outlet to a setpoint temperature at the outlet and controlling the pump to set the flow rate of the liquid desiccant. The method includes sensing space temperature, comparing the space temperature with a setpoint temperature, and controlling the airflow control device to set the flow rate of the supply air based on the comparison.

ICU-acquired candidemia within selective digestive decontamination studies: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hurley, James C

2015-11-01

To estimate the direct and indirect (contextual) effects of the factorized constituents of selective digestive decontamination and selective oropharyngeal decontamination (SDD/SOD), being topical antibiotic (TA) and protocolized antifungal prophylaxis (PAFP), on ICU-acquired candidemia. A broad range of ICU candidemia incidence studies were sourced to serve as points of reference. The candidemia incidence was extracted from component (control and intervention) groups decanted from studies of various designs (concurrent or non-concurrent) and whether investigating SDD/SOD versus non-TA methods of ICU infection prevention. The candidemia incidences were summarized in regression models using generalized estimating equation (GEE) methods. Groups derived from observational studies (no prevention method under study) provided an overarching external benchmark candidemia incidence for calibration. Within studies investigating SDD/SOD, the mean (and 95% confidence interval) candidemia incidence among concurrent component groups (40 control; 2.4%; 1.7-3.2% and 43 intervention groups; 2.4%; 1.6-3.1%), but not non-concurrent control groups (11 groups; 1.6%; 0.1-2.7%), is higher than that of the benchmark candidemia incidence derived from 54 observational groups (1.5%; 1.2-1.9%). The TA constituent within SDD/SOD has significant direct and indirect (contextual) effects in GEE models even after adjusting for the publication year and the group-wide presence of either candidemia risk factors or PAFP use. The TA constituent of SDD/SOD is associated with a contextual effect on candidemia incidence which is similar in magnitude to that of the conventional candidemia risk factors and against which PAFP partially attenuates. This increase is inapparent within individual SDD/SOD studies examined in isolation.

AB064. Estimation of direct and indirect costs and quality of life of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and their burden on Greek Health System

PubMed Central

Zarogoulidou, Vasiliki; Arbanitidou-Bagiona, Maria; Papakosta, Despoina; Zarogoulidis, Paul; Porpodis, Konstantinos; Panagopoulou, Evaggelia; Chaidits, Athanasios Basileio; Kontakiotis, Theodore; Zarogoulidis, Konstantinos

2016-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to make an attempt to estimate the direct and indirect costs of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease since in Greece very few attempts have been done to measure these costs and data available are insufficient. Our research focused on evaluating these direct and indirect costs according to demographic factors, response to treatment, patient survival, quality of life and patient satisfaction from the health care services provided. Methods This study was performed in Pulmonary Department of Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, General Hospital “G. Papanikolaou” and 110 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were enrolled. The follow-up duration of the patients was two years from the time of diagnosis. First, for study purposes the calculation of direct and indirect costs were performed and their correlations with patients’ demographics (gender, age, profession, place of residence), number of exacerbations, response to treatment and survival. In parallel, every three months from the time of diagnosis patients’ quality of life was recorded, using questionnaires, which was also correlated with the direct and indirect costs of each disease under investigation. The exploration of patient satisfaction from the health services provided was performed once for each patient during the first hospital stay in the Pulmonary Department of Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, General Hospital “G. Papanikolaou”. Results The total mean costs per patient in a one year follow-up was: total mean direct cost: 3.889,08€, total mean indirect cost: 18.01€. In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) higher costs were observed in patients over 70 years old, of secondary education and pensioners, while for bronchial asthma higher costs were observed mainly in women. The disease severity, the frequency of exacerbations and the need for hospitalization significantly increased the economic burden of Greek health care system. The increase of the medication and patients’ monitoring cost resulted in improved control of the disease. Patients with COPD showed stable or deteriorating quality of life during the 12 month period of time. At 24 months of follow-up, patients with COPD reported improved quality of life compared to diagnosis. Improved the quality of life was associated with increased direct and indirect costs. The increased costs that were partly the result of frequent examinations, treatments and visits to the doctor, seemed to have negatively affected the emotional state of patients. Improved quality of life in COPD patients was related with reduced direct and indirect costs. Patient satisfaction from the provided health services could not be assessed as there was no homogeneity among the questions of the questionnaire used for the study. Future research should be made for the development of a reliable tool for recording patient satisfaction from the provided health services in hospitals of our country. Conclusions The higher annual burden of COPD patients is probably due to the infectious exacerbations COPD patients experience, which usually leads them to hospitalization. Patients quality of life is influenced from a variety of factors and was correlated with direct or/and indirect hospitalisation and/or monitoring cost.

An introduction to the indirect exposure assessment approach: modeling human exposure using microenvironmental measurements and the recent National Human Activity Pattern Survey.

PubMed Central

Klepeis, N E

1999-01-01

Indirect exposure approaches offer a feasible and accurate method for estimating population exposures to indoor pollutants, including environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). In an effort to make the indirect exposure assessment approach more accessible to people in the health and risk assessment fields, this paper provides examples using real data from (italic>a(/italic>) a week-long personal carbon monoxide monitoring survey conducted by the author; and (italic>b(/italic>) the 1992 to 1994 National Human Activity Pattern Survey (NHAPS) for the United States. The indirect approach uses measurements of exposures in specific microenvironments (e.g., homes, bars, offices), validated microenvironmental models (based on the mass balance equation), and human activity pattern data obtained from questionnaires to predict frequency distributions of exposure for entire populations. This approach requires fewer resources than the direct approach to exposure assessment, for which the distribution of monitors to a representative sample of a given population is necessary. In the indirect exposure assessment approach, average microenvironmental concentrations are multiplied by the total time spent in each microenvironment to give total integrated exposure. By assuming that the concentrations encountered in each of 10 location categories are the same for different members of the U.S. population (i.e., the NHAPS respondents), the hypothetical contribution that ETS makes to the average 24-hr respirable suspended particle exposure for Americans working their main job is calculated in this paper to be 18 microg/m3. This article is an illustrative review and does not contain an actual exposure assessment or model validation. Images Figure 3 Figure 4 PMID:10350522

Relay discovery and selection for large-scale P2P streaming

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chengwei; Wang, Angela Yunxian

2017-01-01

In peer-to-peer networks, application relays have been commonly used to provide various networking services. The service performance often improves significantly if a relay is selected appropriately based on its network location. In this paper, we studied the location-aware relay discovery and selection problem for large-scale P2P streaming networks. In these large-scale and dynamic overlays, it incurs significant communication and computation cost to discover a sufficiently large relay candidate set and further to select one relay with good performance. The network location can be measured directly or indirectly with the tradeoffs between timeliness, overhead and accuracy. Based on a measurement study and the associated error analysis, we demonstrate that indirect measurements, such as King and Internet Coordinate Systems (ICS), can only achieve a coarse estimation of peers’ network location and those methods based on pure indirect measurements cannot lead to a good relay selection. We also demonstrate that there exists significant error amplification of the commonly used “best-out-of-K” selection methodology using three RTT data sets publicly available. We propose a two-phase approach to achieve efficient relay discovery and accurate relay selection. Indirect measurements are used to narrow down a small number of high-quality relay candidates and the final relay selection is refined based on direct probing. This two-phase approach enjoys an efficient implementation using the Distributed-Hash-Table (DHT). When the DHT is constructed, the node keys carry the location information and they are generated scalably using indirect measurements, such as the ICS coordinates. The relay discovery is achieved efficiently utilizing the DHT-based search. We evaluated various aspects of this DHT-based approach, including the DHT indexing procedure, key generation under peer churn and message costs. PMID:28410384

Relay discovery and selection for large-scale P2P streaming.

PubMed

Zhang, Chengwei; Wang, Angela Yunxian; Hei, Xiaojun

2017-01-01

In peer-to-peer networks, application relays have been commonly used to provide various networking services. The service performance often improves significantly if a relay is selected appropriately based on its network location. In this paper, we studied the location-aware relay discovery and selection problem for large-scale P2P streaming networks. In these large-scale and dynamic overlays, it incurs significant communication and computation cost to discover a sufficiently large relay candidate set and further to select one relay with good performance. The network location can be measured directly or indirectly with the tradeoffs between timeliness, overhead and accuracy. Based on a measurement study and the associated error analysis, we demonstrate that indirect measurements, such as King and Internet Coordinate Systems (ICS), can only achieve a coarse estimation of peers' network location and those methods based on pure indirect measurements cannot lead to a good relay selection. We also demonstrate that there exists significant error amplification of the commonly used "best-out-of-K" selection methodology using three RTT data sets publicly available. We propose a two-phase approach to achieve efficient relay discovery and accurate relay selection. Indirect measurements are used to narrow down a small number of high-quality relay candidates and the final relay selection is refined based on direct probing. This two-phase approach enjoys an efficient implementation using the Distributed-Hash-Table (DHT). When the DHT is constructed, the node keys carry the location information and they are generated scalably using indirect measurements, such as the ICS coordinates. The relay discovery is achieved efficiently utilizing the DHT-based search. We evaluated various aspects of this DHT-based approach, including the DHT indexing procedure, key generation under peer churn and message costs.

Simple method for direct crown base height estimation of individual conifer trees using airborne LiDAR data.

PubMed

Luo, Laiping; Zhai, Qiuping; Su, Yanjun; Ma, Qin; Kelly, Maggi; Guo, Qinghua

2018-05-14

Crown base height (CBH) is an essential tree biophysical parameter for many applications in forest management, forest fuel treatment, wildfire modeling, ecosystem modeling and global climate change studies. Accurate and automatic estimation of CBH for individual trees is still a challenging task. Airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) provides reliable and promising data for estimating CBH. Various methods have been developed to calculate CBH indirectly using regression-based means from airborne LiDAR data and field measurements. However, little attention has been paid to directly calculate CBH at the individual tree scale in mixed-species forests without field measurements. In this study, we propose a new method for directly estimating individual-tree CBH from airborne LiDAR data. Our method involves two main strategies: 1) removing noise and understory vegetation for each tree; and 2) estimating CBH by generating percentile ranking profile for each tree and using a spline curve to identify its inflection points. These two strategies lend our method the advantages of no requirement of field measurements and being efficient and effective in mixed-species forests. The proposed method was applied to a mixed conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada, California and was validated by field measurements. The results showed that our method can directly estimate CBH at individual tree level with a root-mean-squared error of 1.62 m, a coefficient of determination of 0.88 and a relative bias of 3.36%. Furthermore, we systematically analyzed the accuracies among different height groups and tree species by comparing with field measurements. Our results implied that taller trees had relatively higher uncertainties than shorter trees. Our findings also show that the accuracy for CBH estimation was the highest for black oak trees, with an RMSE of 0.52 m. The conifer species results were also good with uniformly high R 2 ranging from 0.82 to 0.93. In general, our method has demonstrated high accuracy for individual tree CBH estimation and strong potential for applications in mixed species over large areas.

The cost of care of rheumatoid arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis patients in tertiary care rheumatology units in Turkey.

PubMed

Malhan, Simten; Pay, Salih; Ataman, Sebnem; Dalkilic, Ediz; Dinc, Ayhan; Erken, Eren; Ertenli, Ihsan; Ertugrul, Esin; Gogus, Feride; Hamuryudan, Vedat; Inanc, Murat; Karaarslan, Yasar; Karadag, Omer; Karakoc, Yuksel; Keskin, Goksal; Kisacik, Bunyamin; Kiraz, Sedat; Oksel, Fahrettin; Oksuz, Ergun; Pirildar, Timur; Sari, Ismail; Soy, Mehmet; Senturk, Taskin; Taylan, Ali

2012-01-01

To determine the direct and indirect costs due to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients in Turkey. An expert panel was convened to estimate the direct and indirect costs of care of patients with RA and AS in Turkey. The panel was composed of 22 experts chosen from all national tertiary care rheumatology units (n=53). To calculate direct costs, the medical management of RA and AS patients was estimated using 'cost-of-illness' methodology. To measure indirect costs, the number of days of sick leave, the extent of disability, and the levels of early retirement and early death were also evaluated. Lost productivity costs were calculated using the 'human capital approach', based on the minimum wage. The total annual direct costs were 2,917.03 Euros per RA patient and 3,565.9 Euros for each AS patient. The direct costs were thus substantial, but the indirect costs were much higher because of extensive morbidity and mortality rates. The total annual indirect costs were 7,058.99 Euros per RA patient and 6,989.81 for each AS patient. Thus, the total cost for each RA patient was 9,976.01 Euros and that for an AS patient 10,555.72 Euros, in Turkey. From the societal perspective, both RA and AS have become burden in Turkey. The cost of lost productivity is higher than the medical cost. Another important conclusion is that indirect costs constitute 70% and 66% of total costs in patients with RA and AS, respectively.

The economic burden of inadequate consumption of vegetables and fruit in Canada.

PubMed

Ekwaru, John Paul; Ohinmaa, Arto; Loehr, Sarah; Setayeshgar, Solmaz; Thanh, Nguyen Xuan; Veugelers, Paul J

2017-02-01

Public health decision makers not only consider health benefits but also economic implications when articulating and issuing lifestyle recommendations. Whereas various estimates exist for the economic burden of physical inactivity, excess body weight and smoking, estimates of the economic burden associated with our diet are rare. In the present study, we estimated the economic burden attributable to the inadequate consumption of vegetables and fruit in Canada. We accessed the Canadian Community Health Survey to assess the inadequacy in the consumption of vegetables and fruit and published meta-analyses to assemble risk estimates for chronic diseases. Based on these inadequacy and risk estimates, we calculated the population-attributable fraction and avoidable direct and indirect costs to society. Direct costs include those for hospital care, physician services and drugs in 2015. About 80 % of women and 89 % of men consume inadequate amounts of vegetables and fruit. We estimated this to result in an economic burden of $CAN 3·3 billion per year, of which 30·5 % is direct health-care costs and 69·5 % is indirect costs due to productivity losses. A modest 1 percentage point annual reduction in the prevalence of inadequate vegetables and fruit consumption over the next 20 years would avoid approximately $CAN 10·8 billion, and an increase of one serving of vegetables and fruit per day would avoid approximately $CAN 9·2 billion. Further investments in the promotion of vegetables and fruit will prevent chronic disease and substantially reduce direct and indirect health-care costs.

Economic burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Bangladesh during 2010

PubMed Central

Bhuiyan, Mejbah U; Luby, Stephen P; Alamgir, Nadia I; Homaira, Nusrat; Mamun, Abdullah A; Khan, Jahangir A M; Abedin, Jaynal; Sturm-Ramirez, Katharine; Gurley, Emily S; Zaman, Rashid U; Alamgir, ASM; Rahman, Mahmudur; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo

2014-01-01

Objective Understanding the costs of influenza-associated illness in Bangladesh may help health authorities assess the cost-effectiveness of influenza prevention programs. We estimated the annual economic burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Bangladesh. Design From May through October 2010, investigators identified both outpatients and inpatients at four tertiary hospitals with laboratory-confirmed influenza infection through rRT-PCR. Research assistants visited case-patients' homes within 30 days of hospital visit/discharge and administered a structured questionnaire to capture direct medical costs (physician consultation, hospital bed, medicines and diagnostic tests), direct non-medical costs (food, lodging and travel) and indirect costs (case-patients' and caregivers' lost income). We used WHO-Choice estimates for routine healthcare service costs. We added direct, indirect and healthcare service costs to calculate cost-per-episode. We used median cost-per-episode, published influenza-associated outpatient and hospitalization rates and Bangladesh census data to estimate the annual economic burden of influenza-associated illnesses in 2010. Results We interviewed 132 outpatients and 41 hospitalized patients. The median cost of an influenza-associated outpatient visit was US$4.80 (IQR = 2.93–8.11) and an influenza-associated hospitalization was US$82.20 (IQR = 59.96–121.56). We estimated that influenza-associated outpatient visits resulted in US$108 million (95% CI: 76–147) in direct costs and US$59 million (95% CI: 37–91) in indirect costs; influenza-associated hospitalizations resulted in US$1.4 million (95% CI: 0.4–2.6) in direct costs and US$0.4 million (95% CI: 0.1–0.8) in indirect costs in 2010. Conclusions In Bangladesh, influenza-associated illnesses caused an estimated US$169 million in economic loss in 2010, largely driven by frequent but low-cost outpatient visits. PMID:24750586

Economic burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Bangladesh during 2010.

PubMed

Bhuiyan, Mejbah U; Luby, Stephen P; Alamgir, Nadia I; Homaira, Nusrat; Mamun, Abdullah A; Khan, Jahangir A M; Abedin, Jaynal; Sturm-Ramirez, Katharine; Gurley, Emily S; Zaman, Rashid U; Alamgir, A S M; Rahman, Mahmudur; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo

2014-07-01

Understanding the costs of influenza-associated illness in Bangladesh may help health authorities assess the cost-effectiveness of influenza prevention programs. We estimated the annual economic burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits in Bangladesh. From May through October 2010, investigators identified both outpatients and inpatients at four tertiary hospitals with laboratory-confirmed influenza infection through rRT-PCR. Research assistants visited case-patients' homes within 30 days of hospital visit/discharge and administered a structured questionnaire to capture direct medical costs (physician consultation, hospital bed, medicines and diagnostic tests), direct non-medical costs (food, lodging and travel) and indirect costs (case-patients' and caregivers' lost income). We used WHO-Choice estimates for routine healthcare service costs. We added direct, indirect and healthcare service costs to calculate cost-per-episode. We used median cost-per-episode, published influenza-associated outpatient and hospitalization rates and Bangladesh census data to estimate the annual economic burden of influenza-associated illnesses in 2010. We interviewed 132 outpatients and 41 hospitalized patients. The median cost of an influenza-associated outpatient visit was US$4.80 (IQR = 2.93-8.11) and an influenza-associated hospitalization was US$82.20 (IQR = 59.96-121.56). We estimated that influenza-associated outpatient visits resulted in US$108 million (95% CI: 76-147) in direct costs and US$59 million (95% CI: 37-91) in indirect costs; influenza-associated hospitalizations resulted in US$1.4 million (95% CI: 0.4-2.6) in direct costs and US$0.4 million (95% CI: 0.1-0.8) in indirect costs in 2010. In Bangladesh, influenza-associated illnesses caused an estimated US$169 million in economic loss in 2010, largely driven by frequent but low-cost outpatient visits. © 2014 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Estimation of mercury emission from different sources to atmosphere in Chongqing, China.

PubMed

Wang, Dingyong; He, Lei; Wei, Shiqiang; Feng, Xinbin

2006-08-01

This investigation presents a first assessment of the contribution to the regional mercury budget from anthropogenic and natural sources in Chongqing, an important industrial region in southwest China. The emissions of mercury to atmosphere from anthropogenic sources in the region were estimated through indirect approaches, i.e. using commonly acceptable emission factors method, which based on annual process throughputs or consumption for these sources. The natural mercury emissions were estimated from selected natural sources by the dynamic flux chamber technique. The results indicated that the anthropogenic mercury emissions totaled approximately 8.85 tons (t), more than 50% of this total originated in coal combustion and 23.7% of this total emission in the industrial process (include cement production, metal smelting and chemical industry). The natural emissions represented approximately 17% of total emissions (1.78 t yr(-1)). The total mercury emission to atmosphere in Chongqing in 2001 was 10.63 t.

Design and experimental validation of linear and nonlinear vehicle steering control strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menhour, Lghani; Lechner, Daniel; Charara, Ali

2012-06-01

This paper proposes the design of three control laws dedicated to vehicle steering control, two based on robust linear control strategies and one based on nonlinear control strategies, and presents a comparison between them. The two robust linear control laws (indirect and direct methods) are built around M linear bicycle models, each of these control laws is composed of two M proportional integral derivative (PID) controllers: one M PID controller to control the lateral deviation and the other M PID controller to control the vehicle yaw angle. The indirect control law method is designed using an oscillation method and a nonlinear optimisation subject to H ∞ constraint. The direct control law method is designed using a linear matrix inequality optimisation in order to achieve H ∞ performances. The nonlinear control method used for the correction of the lateral deviation is based on a continuous first-order sliding-mode controller. The different methods are designed using a linear bicycle vehicle model with variant parameters, but the aim is to simulate the nonlinear vehicle behaviour under high dynamic demands with a four-wheel vehicle model. These steering vehicle controls are validated experimentally using the data acquired using a laboratory vehicle, Peugeot 307, developed by National Institute for Transport and Safety Research - Department of Accident Mechanism Analysis Laboratory's (INRETS-MA) and their performance results are compared. Moreover, an unknown input sliding-mode observer is introduced to estimate the road bank angle.

Assessment of atmospheric trace metal deposition in urban environments using direct and indirect measurement methodology and contributions from wet and dry depositions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omrani, Mehrazin; Ruban, Véronique; Ruban, Gwenaël; Lamprea, Katerine

2017-11-01

Bulk Atmospheric Deposition (BAD), Wet Atmospheric Deposition (WAD) and Dry Atmospheric Deposition (DAD) were all measured within an urban residential area in Nantes (France) over a 9-month period (27 February - 10 December 2014). The objectives of this study were to compare 2 methods for measuring dry and wet atmospheric depositions in the urban environment (DAD and WAD: direct method; BAD and WAD: indirect one), and to characterize as well the variations and relative contributions of these depositions. Trace metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pt and V) were used to carry out these comparison and quantification. BAD was collected with two open polyethylene containers (72 × 54 × 21 cm), while WAD was collected by means of an automated rainwater collector and DAD was determined from both air measurements (recorded by an air sampler) and 7Be deposition velocities. The comparison based on a detailed evaluation of uncertainties showed a significant difference between the direct and indirect methods. Dry and wet depositions varied widely from one month to the next. Zn and Cu were the most abundant elements in both dry and wet depositions. The mean contribution of DAD to the bulk atmospheric deposition during this 9-month study was significant for Zn, Cu and V (about 25%) as well as for Pb (approx. 60%). For this relatively unpolluted urban residential catchment, the contribution of atmospheric deposition to global load at the catchment outlet was low, between 10% and 20% for Zn, Cu, V and Pb, 25% for Cr and about 30% for Ni. For other urban sites exhibiting high atmospheric pollution however, the atmospheric contribution to the global pollution load could be much greater. An accurate and representative estimation of DAD thus proves critical.

Direct reconstruction of cardiac PET kinetic parametric images using a preconditioned conjugate gradient approach.

PubMed

Rakvongthai, Yothin; Ouyang, Jinsong; Guerin, Bastien; Li, Quanzheng; Alpert, Nathaniel M; El Fakhri, Georges

2013-10-01

Our research goal is to develop an algorithm to reconstruct cardiac positron emission tomography (PET) kinetic parametric images directly from sinograms and compare its performance with the conventional indirect approach. Time activity curves of a NCAT phantom were computed according to a one-tissue compartmental kinetic model with realistic kinetic parameters. The sinograms at each time frame were simulated using the activity distribution for the time frame. The authors reconstructed the parametric images directly from the sinograms by optimizing a cost function, which included the Poisson log-likelihood and a spatial regularization terms, using the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) algorithm with the proposed preconditioner. The proposed preconditioner is a diagonal matrix whose diagonal entries are the ratio of the parameter and the sensitivity of the radioactivity associated with parameter. The authors compared the reconstructed parametric images using the direct approach with those reconstructed using the conventional indirect approach. At the same bias, the direct approach yielded significant relative reduction in standard deviation by 12%-29% and 32%-70% for 50 × 10(6) and 10 × 10(6) detected coincidences counts, respectively. Also, the PCG method effectively reached a constant value after only 10 iterations (with numerical convergence achieved after 40-50 iterations), while more than 500 iterations were needed for CG. The authors have developed a novel approach based on the PCG algorithm to directly reconstruct cardiac PET parametric images from sinograms, and yield better estimation of kinetic parameters than the conventional indirect approach, i.e., curve fitting of reconstructed images. The PCG method increases the convergence rate of reconstruction significantly as compared to the conventional CG method.

Antituberculosis nanodelivery system with controlled-release properties based on para-amino salicylate–zinc aluminum-layered double-hydroxide nanocomposites

PubMed Central

Saifullah, Bullo; Hussein, Mohd Zobir; Hussein-Al-Ali, Samer Hasan; Arulselvan, Palanisamy; Fakurazi, Sharida

2013-01-01

We report the intercalation and characterization of para-amino salicylic acid (PASA) into zinc/aluminum-layered double hydroxides (ZLDHs) by two methods, direct and indirect, to form nanocomposites: PASA nanocomposite prepared by a direct method (PASA-D) and PASA nanocomposite prepared by an indirect method (PASA-I). Powder X-ray diffraction, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy, and thermogravimetric analysis revealed that the PASA drugs were accommodated within the ZLDH interlayers. The anions of the drug were accommodated as an alternate monolayer (along the long-axis orientation) between ZLDH interlayers. Drug loading was estimated to be 22.8% and 16.6% for PASA-D and PASA-I, respectively. The in vitro release properties of the drug were investigated in physiological simulated phosphate-buffered saline solution of pH 7.4 and 4.8. The release followed the pseudo-second-order model for both nanocomposites. Cell viability (3-[4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl]-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide [MTT] assays) was assessed against normal human lung fibroblast MRC-5 and 3T3 mouse fibroblast cells at 24, 48, and 72 hours. The results showed that the nanocomposite formulations did not possess any cytotoxicity, at least up to 72 hours. PMID:24255593

Direct and Indirect Effects of Teenage Body Weight on Adult Wages. NBER Working Paper No. 15027

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Han, Euna; Norton, Edward C.; Powell, Lisa M.

2009-01-01

Previous estimates on the association between body weight and wages in the literature have been contingent on education and occupation. This paper examines the direct effect of BMI on wages and the indirect effects operating through education and occupation choice, particularly for late-teen BMI and adult wages. Using the National Longitudinal…

Direct effects dominate responses to climate perturbations in grassland plant communities.

PubMed

Chu, Chengjin; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Havstad, Kris M; McClaran, Mitchel P; Peters, Debra P; Vermeire, Lance T; Wei, Haiyan; Adler, Peter B

2016-06-08

Theory predicts that strong indirect effects of environmental change will impact communities when niche differences between competitors are small and variation in the direct effects experienced by competitors is large, but empirical tests are lacking. Here we estimate negative frequency dependence, a proxy for niche differences, and quantify the direct and indirect effects of climate change on each species. Consistent with theory, in four of five communities indirect effects are strongest for species showing weak negative frequency dependence. Indirect effects are also stronger in communities where there is greater variation in direct effects. Overall responses to climate perturbations are driven primarily by direct effects, suggesting that single species models may be adequate for forecasting the impacts of climate change in these communities.

Joining direct and indirect inverse calibration methods to characterize karst, coastal aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Filippis, Giovanna; Foglia, Laura; Giudici, Mauro; Mehl, Steffen; Margiotta, Stefano; Negri, Sergio

2016-04-01

Parameter estimation is extremely relevant for accurate simulation of groundwater flow. Parameter values for models of large-scale catchments are usually derived from a limited set of field observations, which can rarely be obtained in a straightforward way from field tests or laboratory measurements on samples, due to a number of factors, including measurement errors and inadequate sampling density. Indeed, a wide gap exists between the local scale, at which most of the observations are taken, and the regional or basin scale, at which the planning and management decisions are usually made. For this reason, the use of geologic information and field data is generally made by zoning the parameter fields. However, pure zoning does not perform well in the case of fairly complex aquifers and this is particularly true for karst aquifers. In fact, the support of the hydraulic conductivity measured in the field is normally much smaller than the cell size of the numerical model, so it should be upscaled to a scale consistent with that of the numerical model discretization. Automatic inverse calibration is a valuable procedure to identify model parameter values by conditioning on observed, available data, limiting the subjective evaluations introduced with the trial-and-error technique. Many approaches have been proposed to solve the inverse problem. Generally speaking, inverse methods fall into two groups: direct and indirect methods. Direct methods allow determination of hydraulic conductivities from the groundwater flow equations which relate the conductivity and head fields. Indirect methods, instead, can handle any type of parameters, independently from the mathematical equations that govern the process, and condition parameter values and model construction on measurements of model output quantities, compared with the available observation data, through the minimization of an objective function. Both approaches have pros and cons, depending also on model complexity. For this reason, a joint procedure is proposed by merging both direct and indirect approaches, thus taking advantage of their strengths, first among them the possibility to get a hydraulic head distribution all over the domain, instead of a zonation. Pros and cons of such an integrated methodology, so far unexplored to the authors' knowledge, are derived after application to a highly heterogeneous karst, coastal aquifer located in southern Italy.

Assessing the composition of fragmented agglutinated foraminiferal assemblages in ancient sediments: comparison of counting and area-based methods in Famennian samples (Late Devonian)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Catherine; Dufour, Anne-Béatrice; Charruault, Anne-Lise; Renaud, Sabrina

2018-01-01

Benthic foraminifera have been used as proxies for various paleoenvironmental variables such as food availability, carbon flux from surface waters, microhabitats, and indirectly water depth. Estimating assemblage composition based on morphotypes, as opposed to genus- or species-level identification, potentially loses important ecological information but opens the way to the study of ancient time periods. However, the ability to accurately constrain benthic foraminiferal assemblages has been questioned when the most abundant foraminifera are fragile agglutinated forms, particularly prone to fragmentation. Here we test an alternate method for accurately estimating the composition of fragmented assemblages. The cumulated area per morphotype method is assessed, i.e., the sum of the area of all tests or fragments of a given morphotype in a sample. The percentage of each morphotype is calculated as a portion of the total cumulated area. Percentages of different morphotypes based on counting and cumulated area methods are compared one by one and analyzed using principal component analyses, a co-inertia analysis, and Shannon diversity indices. Morphotype percentages are further compared to an estimate of water depth based on microfacies description. Percentages of the morphotypes are not related to water depth. In all cases, counting and cumulated area methods deliver highly similar results, suggesting that the less time-consuming traditional counting method may provide robust estimates of assemblages. The size of each morphotype may deliver paleobiological information, for instance regarding biomass, but should be considered carefully due to the pervasive issue of fragmentation.

Spatial patterns of mixing in the Solomon Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberty, M. S.; Sprintall, J.; MacKinnon, J.; Ganachaud, A.; Cravatte, S.; Eldin, G.; Germineaud, C.; Melet, A.

2017-05-01

The Solomon Sea is a marginal sea in the southwest Pacific that connects subtropical and equatorial circulation, constricting transport of South Pacific Subtropical Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water through its deep, narrow channels. Marginal sea topography inhibits internal waves from propagating out and into the open ocean, making these regions hot spots for energy dissipation and mixing. Data from two hydrographic cruises and from Argo profiles are employed to indirectly infer mixing from observations for the first time in the Solomon Sea. Thorpe and finescale methods indirectly estimate the rate of dissipation of kinetic energy (ɛ) and indicate that it is maximum in the surface and thermocline layers and decreases by 2-3 orders of magnitude by 2000 m depth. Estimates of diapycnal diffusivity from the observations and a simple diffusive model agree in magnitude but have different depth structures, likely reflecting the combined influence of both diapycnal mixing and isopycnal stirring. Spatial variability of ɛ is large, spanning at least 2 orders of magnitude within isopycnal layers. Seasonal variability of ɛ reflects regional monsoonal changes in large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions with ɛ increased in July and decreased in March. Finally, tide power input and topographic roughness are well correlated with mean spatial patterns of mixing within intermediate and deep isopycnals but are not clearly correlated with thermocline mixing patterns.

Managing Microbial Risks from Indirect Wastewater Reuse for Irrigation in Urbanizing Watersheds.

PubMed

Verbyla, Matthew E; Symonds, Erin M; Kafle, Ram C; Cairns, Maryann R; Iriarte, Mercedes; Mercado Guzmán, Alvaro; Coronado, Olver; Breitbart, Mya; Ledo, Carmen; Mihelcic, James R

2016-07-05

Limited supply of clean water in urbanizing watersheds creates challenges for safely sustaining irrigated agriculture and global food security. On-farm interventions, such as riverbank filtration (RBF), are used in developing countries to treat irrigation water from rivers with extensive fecal contamination. Using a Bayesian approach incorporating ethnographic data and pathogen measurements, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) methods were employed to assess the impact of RBF on consumer health burdens for Giardia, Cryptosporidium, rotavirus, norovirus, and adenovirus infections resulting from indirect wastewater reuse, with lettuce irrigation in Bolivia as a model system. Concentrations of the microbial source tracking markers pepper mild mottle virus and HF183 Bacteroides were respectively 2.9 and 5.5 log10 units lower in RBF-treated water than in the river water. Consumption of lettuce irrigated with river water caused an estimated median health burden that represents 37% of Bolivia's overall diarrheal disease burden, but RBF resulted in an estimated health burden that is only 1.1% of this overall diarrheal disease burden. Variability and uncertainty associated with environmental and cultural factors affecting exposure correlated more with QMRA-predicted health outcomes than factors related to disease vulnerability. Policies governing simple on-farm interventions like RBF can be intermediary solutions for communities in urbanizing watersheds that currently lack wastewater treatment.

Force Limiting Vibration Tests Evaluated from both Ground Acoustic Tests and FEM Simulations of a Flight Like Vehicle System Assembly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Andrew; LaVerde, Bruce; Waldon, James; Hunt, Ron

2014-01-01

Marshall Space Flight Center has conducted a series of ground acoustic tests with the dual goals of informing analytical judgment, and validating analytical methods when estimating vibroacoustic responses of launch vehicle subsystems. The process of repeatedly correlating finite element-simulated responses with test-measured responses has assisted in the development of best practices for modeling and post-processing. In recent work, force transducers were integrated to measure interface forces at the base of avionics box equipment. Other force data was indirectly measured using strain gauges. The combination of these direct and indirect force measurements has been used to support and illustrate the advantages of implementing the Force Limiting approach for equipment qualification tests. The comparison of force response from integrated system level tests to measurements at the same locations during component level vibration tests provides an excellent illustration. A second comparison of the measured response cases from the system level acoustic tests to finite element simulations has also produced some principles for assessing the suitability of Finite Element Models (FEMs) for making vibroacoustics estimates. The results indicate that when FEM models are employed to guide force limiting choices, they should include sufficient detail to represent the apparent mass of the system in the frequency range of interest.

Assessing the indirect effects due to natural hazards on a mesoscale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfurtscheller, C.; Schwarze, R.

2009-04-01

Measuring indirect economic costs and other effects from natural hazards, especially floods in alpine and other mountainous regions, are a necessary part of a comprehensive economic assessment. Their omission seriously affects the relative economic benefits of structural or non structural measures of flood defence. Surpassing controversial, IO-model-based economic estimates, analysing indirect economic effects lead to the key question of identifying and evaluating the drivers of indirect economic effects and resilience to system effects in the regional economy, i.e. at the meso-level. This investigation takes place for the catastrophic floods in summer 2005 in the provinces of Tyrol and Vorarlberg, Austria, which caused an estimated € 670 Mio direct loss on private and public assets and severe interruptions in lifeline services. The paper starts out with differentiating the concept of indirect economic costs from direct costs, examing different temporal (short vs. long-term) and spatial (macro-, meso- vs. microeconomic) system boundaries. It surveys common theories of economic resilience and vulnerability at the regional economy level. Indirect effects at the regional economy level can be defined as interferences of the economic exchange of goods and services triggered by breakdowns of transport lines and critical production inputs. The extent and persistence of indirect effects of natural hazards is not only by parameters of the extreme event, such as duration and amplitude of the flood, but much more by resilience parameters of the regional economy such as size of enterprises, the network structure (linkages) of the regional economy, availability of insurance and relief funds, and the stock of inventory. These effects can only be dissected by means of expert judgement and event studies. This paper presents the results of a survey conducted among business practioneers, members of chamber of commerce, civil protection agencies to identify and scale the drivers of indirect costs triggered by floods on a local and regional scale. We develop a risk point scale and explain how it can be nested into IO-model-based economic tools such as the HAZUS indirect economic loss calculator

A modified indirect mathematical model for evaluation of ethanol production efficiency in industrial-scale continuous fermentation processes.

PubMed

Canseco Grellet, M A; Castagnaro, A; Dantur, K I; De Boeck, G; Ahmed, P M; Cárdenas, G J; Welin, B; Ruiz, R M

2016-10-01

To calculate fermentation efficiency in a continuous ethanol production process, we aimed to develop a robust mathematical method based on the analysis of metabolic by-product formation. This method is in contrast to the traditional way of calculating ethanol fermentation efficiency, where the ratio between the ethanol produced and the sugar consumed is expressed as a percentage of the theoretical conversion yield. Comparison between the two methods, at industrial scale and in sensitivity studies, showed that the indirect method was more robust and gave slightly higher fermentation efficiency values, although fermentation efficiency of the industrial process was found to be low (~75%). The traditional calculation method is simpler than the indirect method as it only requires a few chemical determinations in samples collected. However, a minor error in any measured parameter will have an important impact on the calculated efficiency. In contrast, the indirect method of calculation requires a greater number of determinations but is much more robust since an error in any parameter will only have a minor effect on the fermentation efficiency value. The application of the indirect calculation methodology in order to evaluate the real situation of the process and to reach an optimum fermentation yield for an industrial-scale ethanol production is recommended. Once a high fermentation yield has been reached the traditional method should be used to maintain the control of the process. Upon detection of lower yields in an optimized process the indirect method should be employed as it permits a more accurate diagnosis of causes of yield losses in order to correct the problem rapidly. The low fermentation efficiency obtained in this study shows an urgent need for industrial process optimization where the indirect calculation methodology will be an important tool to determine process losses. © 2016 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Comparison of Direct and Indirect Methods of Measuring Arterial Blood Pressure in Healthy Male Rhesus Macaques (Macaca mulatta).

PubMed

France, Logan K; Vermillion, Meghan S; Garrett, Caroline M

2018-01-01

Blood pressure is a critical parameter for evaluating cardiovascular health, assessing effects of drugs and procedures, monitoring physiologic status during anesthesia, and making clinical decisions. The placement of an arterial catheter is the most direct and accurate method for measuring blood pressure; however, this approach is invasive and of limited use during brief sedated examinations. The objective of this study was to determine which method of indirect blood pressure monitoring was most accurate compared with measurement by direct arterial catheterization. In addition, we sought to determine the relative accuracy of each indirect method (compared with direct arterial measurement) at a given body location and to assess whether the accuracy of each indirect method was dependent on body location. We compared direct blood pressure measurements by means of catheterization of the saphenous artery with oscillometric and ultrasonic Doppler flow detection measurements at 3 body locations (forearm, distal leg, and tail base) in 16 anesthetized, male rhesus macaques. The results indicate that oscillometry at the forearm is the best indirect method and location for accurately and consistently measuring blood pressure in healthy male rhesus macaques.

Measuring direct and indirect costs of land retirement in an irrigated river basin: A budgeting regional multiplier approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, Joel; Whittlesey, Norman K.; Robison, M. Henry; Willis, David

2002-08-01

This analysis addresses three important conceptual problems in the measurement of direct and indirect costs and benefits: (1) the distribution of impacts between a regional economy and the encompassing state economy; (2) the distinction between indirect impacts and indirect costs (IC), focusing on the dynamic time path unemployed resources follow to find alternative employment; and (3) the distinction among the affected firms' microeconomic categories of fixed and variable costs as they are used to compute regional direct and indirect costs. It uses empirical procedures that reconcile the usual measures of economic impact provided by input/output models with the estimates of economic costs and benefits required for analysis of welfare changes. The paper illustrates the relationships and magnitudes involved in the context of water policy issues facing the Pecos River Basin of New Mexico.

Unconventional Aqueous Humor Outflow: A Review

PubMed Central

Johnson, Mark; McLaren, Jay W.; Overby, Darryl R.

2016-01-01

Aqueous humor flows out of the eye primarily through the conventional outflow pathway that includes the trabecular meshwork and Schlemm's canal. However, a fraction of aqueous humor passes through an alternative or ‘unconventional’ route that includes the ciliary muscle, supraciliary and suprachoroidal spaces. From there, unconventional outflow may drain through two pathways: a uveoscleral pathway where aqueous drains across the sclera to be resorbed by orbital vessels, and a uveovortex pathway where aqueous humor enters the choroid to drain through the vortex veins. We review the anatomy, physiology and pharmacology of these pathways. We also discuss methods to determine unconventional outflow rate, including direct techniques that use radioactive or fluorescent tracers recovered from tissues in the unconventional pathway and indirect methods that estimate unconventional outflow based on total outflow over a range of pressures. Indirect methods are subject to a number of assumptions and generally give poor agreement with tracer measurements. We review the variety of animal models that have been used to study conventional and unconventional outflow. The mouse appears to be a promising model because it captures several aspects of conventional and unconventional outflow dynamics common to humans, although questions remain regarding the magnitude of unconventional outflow in mice. Finally, we review future directions. There is a clear need to develop improved methods for measuring unconventional outflow in both animals and humans. PMID:26850315

A comparison between indirect and objective wear-time assessment of removable orthodontic appliances.

PubMed

Schott, Timm C; Meyer-Gutknecht, Hannes; Mayer, Nicolai; Weber, Joachim; Weimer, Katja

2017-04-01

Patients do not always adhere to the wear times prescribed for removable orthodontic appliances. We evaluated the validity and usability of indirect wear-time assessment methods by comparing wear-time estimates with microelectronically measured wear times in patients with removable orthodontic appliances. Wear times of 33 expansion plates, 34 functional appliances, and 42 retention plates of patients aged 6-20 years (12.3±2.9 years, 50.5% female) were indirectly determined by practitioners using a questionnaire assessing five parameters on a 5-point Likert scale: appliance handling, appliance appearance, bite shift, tooth movement, and appliance fit. The perceived difficulty in assessing each parameter was rated. Actual wear times were evaluated with microelectronic sensors in the appliances. Regression analyses revealed that practitioners' decisions about wear times varied depending on the type of appliance and criteria used, with only one standard criterion best predicting estimated wear time for each appliance. Different standard criteria were better predictors of measured wear time: 22.3% of wear-time variability was explained by expansion plate appearance, 31.2% by functional appliance handling, and 18.8% by retainer fitting. However, practitioners rated the difficulty of assessment in most cases as 'easy'. The study was not double blinded for technical reasons, and practitioners may have considered the evaluation criteria more carefully than in normal daily practice. Practitioners' decisions about wear times based on standard criteria strongly vary depending on the type of appliance and criteria used. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Orthodontic Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Association of Aggression and Non-Suicidal Self Injury: A School-Based Sample of Adolescents

PubMed Central

Tang, Jie; Ma, Ying; Guo, Yong; Ahmed, Niman Isse; Yu, Yizhen; Wang, Jiaji

2013-01-01

Purpose Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) in adolescent has drawn increasing attention because it is associated with subsequent depression, drug abuse, anxiety disorders, and suicide. In the present study, we aimed to estimate the prevalence of non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) in a school-based sample of Chinese adolescents and to explore the association between aggression and NSSI. Methods This study was part of a nationwide study on aggression among adolescents in urban areas of China. A sample of 2907 school students including 1436 boys and 1471 girls were randomly selected in Guangdong Province, with their age ranging from 10 to 18 years old. NSSI, aggression, emotional management and other factors were measured by self-administrated questionnaire. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the association between aggression and NSSI, after adjustment for participants’ emotional management, and other potential confounding variables. Results The one year self-reported prevalence of NSSI was 33.6%. Of them, 21.7% engaged in ‘minor NSSI’, 11.9% in ‘moderate/severe NSSI’. 96.9% of self-injuries engaged in one to five different types of NSSI in the past year. Hostility, verbal and indirect aggression was significantly associated with self-reported NSSI after adjusting for other potential factors both in ‘minor NSSI’ and ‘moderate/severe NSSI’. Hostility, verbal and indirect aggression was significantly associated with greater risk of ‘minor NSSI’ and ‘moderate/severe NSSI’ in those who had poor emotional management ability. Conclusion These findings highlight a high prevalence of NSSI and indicate the importance of hostility, verbal and indirect aggression as potentially risk factor for NSSI among Chinese adolescents. PMID:24205132

Influence of Neighborhood-level Factors on Social Support in Early-stage Breast Cancer Patients and Controls

PubMed Central

Thompson, Tess; Rodebaugh, Thomas L.; Pérez, Maria; Struthers, Jim; Sefko, Julianne A.; Lian, Min; Schootman, Mario; Jeffe, Donna B.

2016-01-01

Rationale Low social support has been linked to negative health outcomes in breast cancer patients. Objective We examined associations between perceived social support, neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation, and neighborhood-level social support in early-stage breast cancer patients and controls. Methods This two-year longitudinal study in the United States included information collected from telephone interviews and clinical records of 541 early-stage patients and 542 controls recruited from 2003 to 2007. Social support was assessed using the Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey (MOS-SS). Residential addresses were geocoded and used to develop measures including neighborhood social support (based on MOS-SS scores from nearby controls) and neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation (a composite index of census tract characteristics). Latent trajectory models were used to determine effects of neighborhood conditions on the stable (intercept) and changing (slope) aspects of social support. Results In a model with only neighborhood variables, greater socioeconomic deprivation was associated with patients’ lower stable social support (standardized estimate = −0.12, p = .027); neighborhood-level social support was associated with social support change (standardized estimate = 0.17, p = .046). After adding individual-level covariates, there were no direct neighborhood effects on social support. In patients, neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation was associated with support indirectly through marriage, insurance status, negative affect, and general health. In controls, neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation was associated with support indirectly through marriage (p < .05). Conclusion Indirect effects of neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation on social support differed in patients and controls. Psychosocial and neighborhood interventions may help patients with low social support, particularly patients without partnered relationships in deprived areas. PMID:27017091

Predicted versus measured resting energy expenditure in patients requiring home parenteral nutrition.

PubMed

Ławiński, Michał; Singer, Pierre; Gradowski, Łukasz; Gradowska, Aleksandra; Bzikowska, Agnieszka; Majewska, Krystyna

2015-01-01

Guidelines from the European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism (ESPEN) recommend between 20 and 35 kcal/kg daily for patients requiring home parenteral nutrition (PN). Other guidelines use predictive equations. However, these equations have not been validated. Indirect calorimetry is recommended as the gold standard for determining resting energy expenditure (REE). The aim of this study was to compare the frequently used equations with measured REE. Seventy-six hospitalized patients suffering from intestinal failure (ages 21-85 y) were enrolled between January 2012 and May 2014. They were eligible for implementation of home parenteral nutrition (HPN) due to short bowel syndrome (54%), intestinal fistulae (24%), cancer obstruction (16%), and radiation-induced intestinal injury (6%). REE measurements were compared with predictive equations by Harris and Benedict (HB), Owen, Ireton-Jones, and Mifflin, as well as recommendations from ESPEN. In all, 152 calorimetry measurements (two per patient) were performed in 76 patients, after total PN administrations. An average result of REE measurement by indirect calorimetry was 1181 ± 322 kcal/d. Variability in momentary energy expenditure (MEE) from one measurement to the other was 8% ± 7%. Bland-Altman analysis showed a mean bias of -192 ± 300 kcal/d between MEE and estimated energy expenditure using the HB equation, which means that the equation increased the score on average by 192 ± 300 kcal/d. Limits of agreement (LoA) between the two methods was -780 to +396 kcal/d. Estimation energy expenditure using the Ireton-Jones equation gave a mean bias of -359 ± 335 kcal/d. LoA between the two methods was -1015 to +297 kcal/d. For Owen equation, Bland-Altman analysis showed a mean bias of -208 ± 313 kcal/d and the LoA between the two methods was -822 to +406 kcal/d. Using the Mifflin equation, estimation energy expenditure gave a mean bias of -172 ± 312 kcal/d and the LoA between the two methods was -784 to +439 kcal/d. Using the ESPEN range (20-35 kcal/kg daily) analysis showed mean bias of -13 ± 326 kcal/d and the LoA was -652 to +626 kcal/d for 20 kcal/kg daily and mean bias of -909 ± 436 kcal/d with the LoA between the two methods -1764 to -54 kcal/d for 35 kcal/kg daily. If REE cannot be measured by indirect calorimetry in patients qualified for HPN, the Ireton-Jones equation and the 20 kcal/kg/d ESPEN recommendation seem to be the most appropriate ones as it provides results that constitute the best approximation of calorimetric examination results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of Arthroscopy for Femoroacetabular Impingement Syndrome on Quality of Life and Economic Outcomes.

PubMed

Mather, Richard C; Nho, Shane J; Federer, Andrew; Demiralp, Berna; Nguyen, Jennifer; Saavoss, Asha; Salata, Michael J; Philippon, Marc J; Bedi, Asheesh; Larson, Christopher M; Byrd, J W Thomas; Koenig, Lane

2018-04-01

The diagnosis and treatment of femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) have increased steadily within the past decade, and research indicates clinically significant improvements after treatment of FAI with hip arthroscopy. This study examined the societal and economic impact of hip arthroscopy by high-volume surgeons for patients with FAI syndrome aged <50 years with noncontroversial diagnosis and indications for surgery. Economic and decision analysis; Level of evidence, 2. The cost-effectiveness of hip arthroscopy versus nonoperative treatment was evaluated by calculating direct and indirect treatment costs. Direct cost was calculated with Current Procedural Terminology medical codes associated with FAI treatment. Indirect cost was measured with the patient-reported data of 102 patients who underwent arthroscopy and from the reimbursement records of 32,143 individuals between the ages of 16 and 79 years who had information in a private insurance claims data set contained within the PearlDiver Patient Records Database. The indirect economic benefits of hip arthroscopy were inferred through regression analysis to estimate the statistical relationship between functional status and productivity. A simulation-based approach was then used to estimate the change in productivity associated with the change in functional status observed in the treatment cohort between baseline and follow-up. To analyze cost-effectiveness, 1-, 2-, and 3-way sensitivity analyses were performed on all variables in the model, and Monte Carlo analysis evaluated the impact of uncertainty in the model assumptions. Analysis of indirect costs identified a statistically significant increase of mean aggregate productivity of $8968 after surgery. Cost-effectiveness analysis showed a mean cumulative total 10-year societal savings of $67,418 per patient from hip arthroscopy versus nonoperative treatment. Hip arthroscopy also conferred a gain of 2.03 quality-adjusted life years over this period. The mean cost for hip arthroscopy was estimated at $23,120 ± $10,279, and the mean cost of nonoperative treatment was estimated at $91,602 ± $14,675. In 99% of trials, hip arthroscopy was recognized as the preferred cost-effective strategy. FAI syndrome produces a substantial economic burden on society that may be reduced through the indirect cost savings and economic benefits from hip arthroscopy.

On the accurate estimation of gap fraction during daytime with digital cover photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Y. R.; Ryu, Y.; Kimm, H.; Macfarlane, C.; Lang, M.; Sonnentag, O.

2015-12-01

Digital cover photography (DCP) has emerged as an indirect method to obtain gap fraction accurately. Thus far, however, the intervention of subjectivity, such as determining the camera relative exposure value (REV) and threshold in the histogram, hindered computing accurate gap fraction. Here we propose a novel method that enables us to measure gap fraction accurately during daytime under various sky conditions by DCP. The novel method computes gap fraction using a single DCP unsaturated raw image which is corrected for scattering effects by canopies and a reconstructed sky image from the raw format image. To test the sensitivity of the novel method derived gap fraction to diverse REVs, solar zenith angles and canopy structures, we took photos in one hour interval between sunrise to midday under dense and sparse canopies with REV 0 to -5. The novel method showed little variation of gap fraction across different REVs in both dense and spares canopies across diverse range of solar zenith angles. The perforated panel experiment, which was used to test the accuracy of the estimated gap fraction, confirmed that the novel method resulted in the accurate and consistent gap fractions across different hole sizes, gap fractions and solar zenith angles. These findings highlight that the novel method opens new opportunities to estimate gap fraction accurately during daytime from sparse to dense canopies, which will be useful in monitoring LAI precisely and validating satellite remote sensing LAI products efficiently.

A Social Network Approach to the Estimation of Perceived Quality of Health Care

PubMed Central

Carletti, Giulia; Soriani, Nicola; Mattiazzi, Martina; Gregori, Dario

2017-01-01

Background: Measuring service quality aids health care providers to recognize specific and unmet needs of patients. Nevertheless, perceived quality of health care services (PQC) is often investigated with inadequate techniques which may lead to biased results. Objective: The aim of the present study is to develop a proof-of-concept for estimating the PQC using the scale-up estimator, with reference to a concrete assessment in patients of a major Oncology Hospital in Veneto (IOV). Results have then been compared with those collected by the Customer Relations Office (CRO) after the annual survey conducted with traditional questionnaire based techniques. Material and Methods: Seven hundred and eighty-three sets consisting of two questionnaires were handed out to IOV patients between 26 and 28 November 2012. The first questionnaire was the CRO annual one composed by 15 direct questions about the perception of quality satisfaction rate using a Likert scale. The second questionnaire was the scale-up (NSUM) one, composed by 20 indirect questions, 5 of which were reproducing the main target of CRO for estimating PQC. Results: The comparisons made over 299 sets of questionnaires showed differences between the two techniques. Network Scale-Up Method (NSUM) questionnaire seems to be able to produce lower estimates of PQC with respect to the CRO annual questionnaire. In some cases, the NSUM showed dissatisfaction rates which are 20-fold higher respect to CRO. Conclusion: NSUM could be a promising method for assessing the perceived quality of care. PMID:29238425

Culvert Analysis Program Graphical User Interface 1.0--A preprocessing and postprocessing tool for estimating flow through culvert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradley, D. Nathan

2013-01-01

The peak discharge of a flood can be estimated from the elevation of high-water marks near the inlet and outlet of a culvert after the flood has occurred. This type of discharge estimate is called an “indirect measurement” because it relies on evidence left behind by the flood, such as high-water marks on trees or buildings. When combined with the cross-sectional geometry of the channel upstream from the culvert and the culvert size, shape, roughness, and orientation, the high-water marks define a water-surface profile that can be used to estimate the peak discharge by using the methods described by Bodhaine (1968). This type of measurement is in contrast to a “direct” measurement of discharge made during the flood where cross-sectional area is measured and a current meter or acoustic equipment is used to measure the water velocity. When a direct discharge measurement cannot be made at a streamgage during high flows because of logistics or safety reasons, an indirect measurement of a peak discharge is useful for defining the high-flow section of the stage-discharge relation (rating curve) at the streamgage, resulting in more accurate computation of high flows. The Culvert Analysis Program (CAP) (Fulford, 1998) is a command-line program written in Fortran for computing peak discharges and culvert rating surfaces or curves. CAP reads input data from a formatted text file and prints results to another formatted text file. Preparing and correctly formatting the input file may be time-consuming and prone to errors. This document describes the CAP graphical user interface (GUI)—a modern, cross-platform, menu-driven application that prepares the CAP input file, executes the program, and helps the user interpret the output

Estimating Energy Expenditure Using Heat Flux Measured at Single Body Site

PubMed Central

Lyden, Kate; Swibas, Tracy; Catenacci, Victoria; Guo, Ruixin; Szuminsky, Neil; Melanson, Edward L.

2014-01-01

Introduction The Personal Calorie Monitor (PCM) is a portable direct calorimeter that estimates energy expenditure (EE) from measured heat flux (i.e. the sum of conductive, convective, radiative, and evaporative). Purpose The primary aim of this study was to compare EE estimated from measures of heat flux to indirect calorimetry in a thermoneutral environment (26°C). A secondary aim was to determine if exposure to ambient temperature below thermoneutral (19°C) influences the accuracy of the PCM. Methods 34 Adults (mean±SD, age = 28±5 y, body mass index = 22.9±2.6 kg.m2) were studied for 5 h in a whole-room indirect calorimeter (IC) in thermoneutral and cool conditions. Participants wore the PCM on their upper arm and completed two, 20-minute treadmill-walking bouts (0% grade, 3 mph). The remaining time was spent sedentary (e.g., watching television, using a computer). Results In thermoneutral, EE (mean (95% CI)) measured by IC and PCM was 560.0 (526.5, 593.5) and 623.3 (535.5, 711.1) kcals, respectively. In cool, EE measured by IC and PCM was 572.5 (540.9, 604.0) and 745.5 (668.1, 822.8) kcals, respectively. Under thermoneutral conditions, mean PCM minute-by-minute EE tracked closely with IC, resulting in a small, non-significant bias (63 kcals (−5.8, 132.4)). During cool conditions, mean PCM minute-by-minute EE did not track IC, resulting in a large bias (173.0 (93.9, 252.1)) (p<0.001). Conclusion This study demonstrated the validity of using measured heat flux to estimate EE. However, accuracy may be impaired in cool conditions, possibly due to excess heat loss from the exposed limbs. PMID:24811326

Simplification of a light-based model for estimating final internode length in greenhouse cucumber canopies.

PubMed

Kahlen, Katrin; Stützel, Hartmut

2011-10-01

Light quantity and quality affect internode lengths in cucumber (Cucumis sativus), whereby leaf area and the optical properties of the leaves mainly control light quality within a cucumber plant community. This modelling study aimed at providing a simple, non-destructive method to predict final internode lengths (FILs) using light quantity and leaf area data. Several simplifications of a light quantity and quality sensitive model for estimating FILs in cucumber have been tested. The direct simplifications substitute the term for the red : far-red (R : FR) ratios, by a term for (a) the leaf area index (LAI, m(2) m(-2)) or (b) partial LAI, the cumulative leaf area per m(2) ground, where leaf area per m(2) ground is accumulated from the top of each plant until a number, n, of leaves per plant is reached. The indirect simplifications estimate the input R : FR ratio based on partial leaf area and plant density. In all models, simulated FILs were in line with the measured FILs over various canopy architectures and light conditions, but the prediction quality varied. The indirect simplification based on leaf area of ten leaves revealed the best fit with measured data. Its prediction quality was even higher than of the original model. This study showed that for vertically trained cucumber plants, leaf area data can substitute local light quality data for estimating FIL data. In unstressed canopies, leaf area over the upper ten ranks seems to represent the feedback of the growing architecture on internode elongation with respect to light quality. This highlights the role of this domain of leaves as the primary source for the specific R : FR signal controlling the final length of an internode and could therefore guide future research on up-scaling local processes to the crop level.

Quasicontinuum γ decay of Zr 91 , 92 : Benchmarking indirect ( n , γ ) cross section measurements for the s process

DOE PAGES

Guttormsen, M.; Goriely, S.; Larsen, A. C.; ...

2017-08-21

Here, nuclear level densities (NLDs) and γ-ray strength functions (γSFs) have been extracted from particle-γ coincidences of the 92Zr(p,p´γ) 92Zr and 92Zr (p,dγ) 91Zr reactions using the Oslo method. The new 91,92Zr γSF data, combined with photonuclear cross sections, cover the whole energy range from Eγ ≈ 1.5 MeV up to the giant dipole resonance at Eγ ≈ 17 MeV. The wide-range γSF data display structures at Eγ ≈ 9.5 MeV, compatible with a superposition of the spin-flip M1 resonance and a pygmy E1 resonance. Furthermore, the γSF shows a minimum at Eγ ≈ 2–3 MeV and an increase atmore » lower γ-ray energies. The experimentally constrained NLDs and γSFs are shown to reproduce known (n,γ) and Maxwellian-averaged cross sections for 91,92Zr using the TALYS reaction code, thus serving as a benchmark for this indirect method of estimating (n,γ) cross sections for Zr isotopes.« less

Enhancement Strategies for Frame-To Uas Stereo Visual Odometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kersten, J.; Rodehorst, V.

2016-06-01

Autonomous navigation of indoor unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) requires accurate pose estimations usually obtained from indirect measurements. Navigation based on inertial measurement units (IMU) is known to be affected by high drift rates. The incorporation of cameras provides complementary information due to the different underlying measurement principle. The scale ambiguity problem for monocular cameras is avoided when a light-weight stereo camera setup is used. However, also frame-to-frame stereo visual odometry (VO) approaches are known to accumulate pose estimation errors over time. Several valuable real-time capable techniques for outlier detection and drift reduction in frame-to-frame VO, for example robust relative orientation estimation using random sample consensus (RANSAC) and bundle adjustment, are available. This study addresses the problem of choosing appropriate VO components. We propose a frame-to-frame stereo VO method based on carefully selected components and parameters. This method is evaluated regarding the impact and value of different outlier detection and drift-reduction strategies, for example keyframe selection and sparse bundle adjustment (SBA), using reference benchmark data as well as own real stereo data. The experimental results demonstrate that our VO method is able to estimate quite accurate trajectories. Feature bucketing and keyframe selection are simple but effective strategies which further improve the VO results. Furthermore, introducing the stereo baseline constraint in pose graph optimization (PGO) leads to significant improvements.

Genotyping faecal samples of Bengal tiger Panthera tigris tigris for population estimation: a pilot study.

PubMed

Bhagavatula, Jyotsna; Singh, Lalji

2006-10-17

Bengal tiger Panthera tigris tigris the National Animal of India, is an endangered species. Estimating populations for such species is the main objective for designing conservation measures and for evaluating those that are already in place. Due to the tiger's cryptic and secretive behaviour, it is not possible to enumerate and monitor its populations through direct observations; instead indirect methods have always been used for studying tigers in the wild. DNA methods based on non-invasive sampling have not been attempted so far for tiger population studies in India. We describe here a pilot study using DNA extracted from faecal samples of tigers for the purpose of population estimation. In this study, PCR primers were developed based on tiger-specific variations in the mitochondrial cytochrome b for reliably identifying tiger faecal samples from those of sympatric carnivores. Microsatellite markers were developed for the identification of individual tigers with a sibling Probability of Identity of 0.005 that can distinguish even closely related individuals with 99.9% certainty. The effectiveness of using field-collected tiger faecal samples for DNA analysis was evaluated by sampling, identification and subsequently genotyping samples from two protected areas in southern India. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of using tiger faecal matter as a potential source of DNA for population estimation of tigers in protected areas in India in addition to the methods currently in use.

M-X Environmental Technical Report. Economic Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-22

TABLE PAGE C-4. Estimated off base school facility costs. 147 C-5. Estimated development costs to other public facilities. 148 C-6. Estimated utility... development costs. 149 C-7. Estimated non-residential building development . 151 E-1. Adjustments to baseline population projections to account for...the fringes of the rural deployment areas themselves. These metropolitan areas potentially would experience significant indirect employment growth as a

Is intra-bladder pressure measurement a reliable indicator for raised intra-abdominal pressure? A prospective comparative study.

PubMed

Al-Abassi, Abdulla Ahmed; Al Saadi, Azan Saleh; Ahmed, Faisal

2018-06-19

Intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) can be measured by several indirect methods; however, the urinary bladder is largely preferred. The aim of this study was to compare intra-bladder pressure (IBP) at different levels of IAPs and assess its reliability as an indirect method for IAP measurement. We compared IBP with IAP in twenty-one patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy under general anesthesia. Measurements were recorded at increasing levels of insufflation pressures to approximately 22 mmHg. Pearson's correlation coefficient was calculated to establish the relationship between the two pressure measurements and Bland-Altman analysis was used to assess the limits of agreement between the two methods of measurements. The urinary bladder pressures reflected well the pressures in the abdominal cavity. Pearson correlation coefficient showed a good correlation between the two measurement techniques (r = 0.966, p < 0.0001) and Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the 95% limits of agreement between the two methods ranged from - 2.83 to 2.64. This range is accepted both clinically and according to the recommendations of the World Society of Abdominal Compartment Syndrome (WSACS). Our study showed that IBP measurement is a simple, minimally invasive method that may reliably estimates IAP in patients placed in supine position. Measurements for pressures higher than 12 mmHg may be less reliable. When applied clinically, this should alert the clinician to take safety measures to avoid abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS).