Activity inference for Ambient Intelligence through handling artifacts in a healthcare environment.

PubMed

Martínez-Pérez, Francisco E; González-Fraga, Jose Ángel; Cuevas-Tello, Juan C; Rodríguez, Marcela D

2012-01-01

Human activity inference is not a simple process due to distinct ways of performing it. Our proposal presents the SCAN framework for activity inference. SCAN is divided into three modules: (1) artifact recognition, (2) activity inference, and (3) activity representation, integrating three important elements of Ambient Intelligence (AmI) (artifact-behavior modeling, event interpretation and context extraction). The framework extends the roaming beat (RB) concept by obtaining the representation using three kinds of technologies for activity inference. The RB is based on both analysis and recognition from artifact behavior for activity inference. A practical case is shown in a nursing home where a system affording 91.35% effectiveness was implemented in situ. Three examples are shown using RB representation for activity representation. Framework description, RB description and CALog system overcome distinct problems such as the feasibility to implement AmI systems, and to show the feasibility for accomplishing the challenges related to activity recognition based on artifact recognition. We discuss how the use of RBs might positively impact the problems faced by designers and developers for recovering information in an easier manner and thus they can develop tools focused on the user.

Activity Inference for Ambient Intelligence Through Handling Artifacts in a Healthcare Environment

PubMed Central

Martínez-Pérez, Francisco E.; González-Fraga, Jose Ángel; Cuevas-Tello, Juan C.; Rodríguez, Marcela D.

2012-01-01

Human activity inference is not a simple process due to distinct ways of performing it. Our proposal presents the SCAN framework for activity inference. SCAN is divided into three modules: (1) artifact recognition, (2) activity inference, and (3) activity representation, integrating three important elements of Ambient Intelligence (AmI) (artifact-behavior modeling, event interpretation and context extraction). The framework extends the roaming beat (RB) concept by obtaining the representation using three kinds of technologies for activity inference. The RB is based on both analysis and recognition from artifact behavior for activity inference. A practical case is shown in a nursing home where a system affording 91.35% effectiveness was implemented in situ. Three examples are shown using RB representation for activity representation. Framework description, RB description and CALog system overcome distinct problems such as the feasibility to implement AmI systems, and to show the feasibility for accomplishing the challenges related to activity recognition based on artifact recognition. We discuss how the use of RBs might positively impact the problems faced by designers and developers for recovering information in an easier manner and thus they can develop tools focused on the user. PMID:22368512

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, P. Ann; Harrison, Patrick R.

1992-01-01

The NASA VEGetation Workbench (VEG) is a knowledge based system that infers vegetation characteristics from reflectance data. The report describes the extensions that have been made to the first generation version of VEG. An interface to a file of unkown cover type data has been constructed. An interface that allows the results of VEG to be written to a file has been implemented. A learning system that learns class descriptions from a data base of historical cover type data and then uses the learned class descriptions to classify an unknown sample has been built. This system has an interface that integrates it into the rest of VEG. The VEG subgoal PROPORTION.GROUND.COVER has been completed and a number of additional techniques that infer the proportion ground cover of a sample have been implemented.

Method of fuzzy inference for one class of MISO-structure systems with non-singleton inputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinuk, V. G.; Panchenko, M. V.

2018-03-01

In fuzzy modeling, the inputs of the simulated systems can receive both crisp values and non-Singleton. Computational complexity of fuzzy inference with fuzzy non-Singleton inputs corresponds to an exponential. This paper describes a new method of inference, based on the theorem of decomposition of a multidimensional fuzzy implication and a fuzzy truth value. This method is considered for fuzzy inputs and has a polynomial complexity, which makes it possible to use it for modeling large-dimensional MISO-structure systems.

Genie Inference Engine Rule Writer’s Guide.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-08-01

33 APPENDIX D. Animal Bootstrap File.............................................................. 39...APPENDIX E. Sample Run of Animal Identification Expert System.......................... 43 APPENDIX F. Numeric Test Knowledge Base...and other data s.tructures stored in the knowledge base (KB), queries the user for input, and draws conclusions. Genie (GENeric Inference Engine) is

Decision generation tools and Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jannson, Tomasz; Wang, Wenjian; Forrester, Thomas; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Veeris, Christian; Nielsen, Thomas

2014-05-01

Digital Decision Generation (DDG) tools are important software sub-systems of Command and Control (C2) systems and technologies. In this paper, we present a special type of DDGs based on Bayesian Inference, related to adverse (hostile) networks, including such important applications as terrorism-related networks and organized crime ones.

On Inference Rules of Logic-Based Information Retrieval Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Patrick Shicheng

1994-01-01

Discussion of relevance and the needs of the users in information retrieval focuses on a deductive object-oriented approach and suggests eight inference rules for the deduction. Highlights include characteristics of a deductive object-oriented system, database and data modeling language, implementation, and user interface. (Contains 24…

Poisson-Based Inference for Perturbation Models in Adaptive Spelling Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baschera, Gian-Marco; Gross, Markus

2010-01-01

We present an inference algorithm for perturbation models based on Poisson regression. The algorithm is designed to handle unclassified input with multiple errors described by independent mal-rules. This knowledge representation provides an intelligent tutoring system with local and global information about a student, such as error classification…

Bayesian inference of interaction properties of noisy dynamical systems with time-varying coupling: capabilities and limitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilting, Jens; Lehnertz, Klaus

2015-08-01

We investigate a recently published analysis framework based on Bayesian inference for the time-resolved characterization of interaction properties of noisy, coupled dynamical systems. It promises wide applicability and a better time resolution than well-established methods. At the example of representative model systems, we show that the analysis framework has the same weaknesses as previous methods, particularly when investigating interacting, structurally different non-linear oscillators. We also inspect the tracking of time-varying interaction properties and propose a further modification of the algorithm, which improves the reliability of obtained results. We exemplarily investigate the suitability of this algorithm to infer strength and direction of interactions between various regions of the human brain during an epileptic seizure. Within the limitations of the applicability of this analysis tool, we show that the modified algorithm indeed allows a better time resolution through Bayesian inference when compared to previous methods based on least square fits.

Data-driven sensitivity inference for Thomson scattering electron density measurement systems.

PubMed

Fujii, Keisuke; Yamada, Ichihiro; Hasuo, Masahiro

2017-01-01

We developed a method to infer the calibration parameters of multichannel measurement systems, such as channel variations of sensitivity and noise amplitude, from experimental data. We regard such uncertainties of the calibration parameters as dependent noise. The statistical properties of the dependent noise and that of the latent functions were modeled and implemented in the Gaussian process kernel. Based on their statistical difference, both parameters were inferred from the data. We applied this method to the electron density measurement system by Thomson scattering for the Large Helical Device plasma, which is equipped with 141 spatial channels. Based on the 210 sets of experimental data, we evaluated the correction factor of the sensitivity and noise amplitude for each channel. The correction factor varies by ≈10%, and the random noise amplitude is ≈2%, i.e., the measurement accuracy increases by a factor of 5 after this sensitivity correction. The certainty improvement in the spatial derivative inference was demonstrated.

Cardiovascular oscillations: in search of a nonlinear parametric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandrivskyy, Andriy; Luchinsky, Dmitry; McClintock, Peter V.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Stefanovska, Aneta; Timucin, Dogan

2003-05-01

We suggest a fresh approach to the modeling of the human cardiovascular system. Taking advantage of a new Bayesian inference technique, able to deal with stochastic nonlinear systems, we show that one can estimate parameters for models of the cardiovascular system directly from measured time series. We present preliminary results of inference of parameters of a model of coupled oscillators from measured cardiovascular data addressing cardiorespiratory interaction. We argue that the inference technique offers a very promising tool for the modeling, able to contribute significantly towards the solution of a long standing challenge -- development of new diagnostic techniques based on noninvasive measurements.

Representations of the language recognition problem for a theorem prover

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minker, J.; Vanderbrug, G. J.

1972-01-01

Two representations of the language recognition problem for a theorem prover in first order logic are presented and contrasted. One of the representations is based on the familiar method of generating sentential forms of the language, and the other is based on the Cocke parsing algorithm. An augmented theorem prover is described which permits recognition of recursive languages. The state-transformation method developed by Cordell Green to construct problem solutions in resolution-based systems can be used to obtain the parse tree. In particular, the end-order traversal of the parse tree is derived in one of the representations. An inference system, termed the cycle inference system, is defined which makes it possible for the theorem prover to model the method on which the representation is based. The general applicability of the cycle inference system to state space problems is discussed. Given an unsatisfiable set S, where each clause has at most one positive literal, it is shown that there exists an input proof. The clauses for the two representations satisfy these conditions, as do many state space problems.

Bayesian parameter inference for stochastic biochemical network models using particle Markov chain Monte Carlo

PubMed Central

Golightly, Andrew; Wilkinson, Darren J.

2011-01-01

Computational systems biology is concerned with the development of detailed mechanistic models of biological processes. Such models are often stochastic and analytically intractable, containing uncertain parameters that must be estimated from time course data. In this article, we consider the task of inferring the parameters of a stochastic kinetic model defined as a Markov (jump) process. Inference for the parameters of complex nonlinear multivariate stochastic process models is a challenging problem, but we find here that algorithms based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo turn out to be a very effective computationally intensive approach to the problem. Approximations to the inferential model based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are considered, as well as improvements to the inference scheme that exploit the SDE structure. We apply the methodology to a Lotka–Volterra system and a prokaryotic auto-regulatory network. PMID:23226583

Explorations of electric current system in solar active regions. I - Empirical inferences of the current flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ding, Y. J.; Hong, Q. F.; Hagyard, M. J.; Deloach, A. C.; Liu, X. P.

1987-01-01

Techniques to identify sources of electric current systems and their channels of flow in solar active regions are explored. Measured photospheric vector magnetic fields together with high-resolution white-light and H-alpha filtergrams provide the data base to derive the current systems in the photosphere and chromosphere. As an example, the techniques are then applied to infer current systems in AR 2372 in early April 1980.

Application of AI techniques to infer vegetation characteristics from directional reflectance(s)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kimes, D. S.; Smith, J. A.; Harrison, P. A.; Harrison, P. R.

1994-01-01

Traditionally, the remote sensing community has relied totally on spectral knowledge to extract vegetation characteristics. However, there are other knowledge bases (KB's) that can be used to significantly improve the accuracy and robustness of inference techniques. Using AI (artificial intelligence) techniques a KB system (VEG) was developed that integrates input spectral measurements with diverse KB's. These KB's consist of data sets of directional reflectance measurements, knowledge from literature, and knowledge from experts which are combined into an intelligent and efficient system for making vegetation inferences. VEG accepts spectral data of an unknown target as input, determines the best techniques for inferring the desired vegetation characteristic(s), applies the techniques to the target data, and provides a rigorous estimate of the accuracy of the inference. VEG was developed to: infer spectral hemispherical reflectance from any combination of nadir and/or off-nadir view angles; infer percent ground cover from any combination of nadir and/or off-nadir view angles; infer unknown view angle(s) from known view angle(s) (known as view angle extension); and discriminate between user defined vegetation classes using spectral and directional reflectance relationships developed from an automated learning algorithm. The errors for these techniques were generally very good ranging between 2 to 15% (proportional root mean square). The system is designed to aid scientists in developing, testing, and applying new inference techniques using directional reflectance data.

Single board system for fuzzy inference

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Symon, James R.; Watanabe, Hiroyuki

1991-01-01

The very large scale integration (VLSI) implementation of a fuzzy logic inference mechanism allows the use of rule-based control and decision making in demanding real-time applications. Researchers designed a full custom VLSI inference engine. The chip was fabricated using CMOS technology. The chip consists of 688,000 transistors of which 476,000 are used for RAM memory. The fuzzy logic inference engine board system incorporates the custom designed integrated circuit into a standard VMEbus environment. The Fuzzy Logic system uses Transistor-Transistor Logic (TTL) parts to provide the interface between the Fuzzy chip and a standard, double height VMEbus backplane, allowing the chip to perform application process control through the VMEbus host. High level C language functions hide details of the hardware system interface from the applications level programmer. The first version of the board was installed on a robot at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in January of 1990.

Discrimination of Human Forearm Motions on the Basis of Myoelectric Signals by Using Adaptive Fuzzy Inference System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiso, Atsushi; Seki, Hirokazu

This paper describes a method for discriminating of the human forearm motions based on the myoelectric signals using an adaptive fuzzy inference system. In conventional studies, the neural network is often used to estimate motion intention by the myoelectric signals and realizes the high discrimination precision. On the other hand, this study uses the fuzzy inference for a human forearm motion discrimination based on the myoelectric signals. This study designs the membership function and the fuzzy rules using the average value and the standard deviation of the root mean square of the myoelectric potential for every channel of each motion. In addition, the characteristics of the myoelectric potential gradually change as a result of the muscle fatigue. Therefore, the motion discrimination should be performed by taking muscle fatigue into consideration. This study proposes a method to redesign the fuzzy inference system such that dynamic change of the myoelectric potential because of the muscle fatigue will be taken into account. Some experiments carried out using a myoelectric hand simulator show the effectiveness of the proposed motion discrimination method.

An Ada inference engine for expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lavallee, David B.

1986-01-01

The purpose is to investigate the feasibility of using Ada for rule-based expert systems with real-time performance requirements. This includes exploring the Ada features which give improved performance to expert systems as well as optimizing the tradeoffs or workarounds that the use of Ada may require. A prototype inference engine was built using Ada, and rule firing rates in excess of 500 per second were demonstrated on a single MC68000 processor. The knowledge base uses a directed acyclic graph to represent production lines. The graph allows the use of AND, OR, and NOT logical operators. The inference engine uses a combination of both forward and backward chaining in order to reach goals as quickly as possible. Future efforts will include additional investigation of multiprocessing to improve performance and creating a user interface allowing rule input in an Ada-like syntax. Investigation of multitasking and alternate knowledge base representations will help to analyze some of the performance issues as they relate to larger problems.

Inference of Gene Regulatory Networks Incorporating Multi-Source Biological Knowledge via a State Space Model with L1 Regularization

PubMed Central

Hasegawa, Takanori; Yamaguchi, Rui; Nagasaki, Masao; Miyano, Satoru; Imoto, Seiya

2014-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) is a major challenge in the field of systems biology. Currently, there are two main approaches in GRN analysis using time-course observation data, namely an ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based approach and a statistical model-based approach. The ODE-based approach can generate complex dynamics of GRNs according to biologically validated nonlinear models. However, it cannot be applied to ten or more genes to simultaneously estimate system dynamics and regulatory relationships due to the computational difficulties. The statistical model-based approach uses highly abstract models to simply describe biological systems and to infer relationships among several hundreds of genes from the data. However, the high abstraction generates false regulations that are not permitted biologically. Thus, when dealing with several tens of genes of which the relationships are partially known, a method that can infer regulatory relationships based on a model with low abstraction and that can emulate the dynamics of ODE-based models while incorporating prior knowledge is urgently required. To accomplish this, we propose a method for inference of GRNs using a state space representation of a vector auto-regressive (VAR) model with L1 regularization. This method can estimate the dynamic behavior of genes based on linear time-series modeling constructed from an ODE-based model and can infer the regulatory structure among several tens of genes maximizing prediction ability for the observational data. Furthermore, the method is capable of incorporating various types of existing biological knowledge, e.g., drug kinetics and literature-recorded pathways. The effectiveness of the proposed method is shown through a comparison of simulation studies with several previous methods. For an application example, we evaluated mRNA expression profiles over time upon corticosteroid stimulation in rats, thus incorporating corticosteroid kinetics/dynamics, literature-recorded pathways and transcription factor (TF) information. PMID:25162401

Classification of complex information: inference of co-occurring affective states from their expressions in speech.

PubMed

Sobol-Shikler, Tal; Robinson, Peter

2010-07-01

We present a classification algorithm for inferring affective states (emotions, mental states, attitudes, and the like) from their nonverbal expressions in speech. It is based on the observations that affective states can occur simultaneously and different sets of vocal features, such as intonation and speech rate, distinguish between nonverbal expressions of different affective states. The input to the inference system was a large set of vocal features and metrics that were extracted from each utterance. The classification algorithm conducted independent pairwise comparisons between nine affective-state groups. The classifier used various subsets of metrics of the vocal features and various classification algorithms for different pairs of affective-state groups. Average classification accuracy of the 36 pairwise machines was 75 percent, using 10-fold cross validation. The comparison results were consolidated into a single ranked list of the nine affective-state groups. This list was the output of the system and represented the inferred combination of co-occurring affective states for the analyzed utterance. The inference accuracy of the combined machine was 83 percent. The system automatically characterized over 500 affective state concepts from the Mind Reading database. The inference of co-occurring affective states was validated by comparing the inferred combinations to the lexical definitions of the labels of the analyzed sentences. The distinguishing capabilities of the system were comparable to human performance.

Sensitivity to the Sampling Process Emerges From the Principle of Efficiency.

PubMed

Jara-Ettinger, Julian; Sun, Felix; Schulz, Laura; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2018-05-01

Humans can seamlessly infer other people's preferences, based on what they do. Broadly, two types of accounts have been proposed to explain different aspects of this ability. The first account focuses on spatial information: Agents' efficient navigation in space reveals what they like. The second account focuses on statistical information: Uncommon choices reveal stronger preferences. Together, these two lines of research suggest that we have two distinct capacities for inferring preferences. Here we propose that this is not the case, and that spatial-based and statistical-based preference inferences can be explained by the assumption that agents are efficient alone. We show that people's sensitivity to spatial and statistical information when they infer preferences is best predicted by a computational model of the principle of efficiency, and that this model outperforms dual-system models, even when the latter are fit to participant judgments. Our results suggest that, as adults, a unified understanding of agency under the principle of efficiency underlies our ability to infer preferences. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Root architecture simulation improves the inference from seedling root phenotyping towards mature root systems

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jiangsan; Rewald, Boris; Leitner, Daniel; Nagel, Kerstin A.; Nakhforoosh, Alireza

2017-01-01

Abstract Root phenotyping provides trait information for plant breeding. A shortcoming of high-throughput root phenotyping is the limitation to seedling plants and failure to make inferences on mature root systems. We suggest root system architecture (RSA) models to predict mature root traits and overcome the inference problem. Sixteen pea genotypes were phenotyped in (i) seedling (Petri dishes) and (ii) mature (sand-filled columns) root phenotyping platforms. The RSA model RootBox was parameterized with seedling traits to simulate the fully developed root systems. Measured and modelled root length, first-order lateral number, and root distribution were compared to determine key traits for model-based prediction. No direct relationship in root traits (tap, lateral length, interbranch distance) was evident between phenotyping systems. RootBox significantly improved the inference over phenotyping platforms. Seedling plant tap and lateral root elongation rates and interbranch distance were sufficient model parameters to predict genotype ranking in total root length with an RSpearman of 0.83. Parameterization including uneven lateral spacing via a scaling function substantially improved the prediction of architectures underlying the differently sized root systems. We conclude that RSA models can solve the inference problem of seedling root phenotyping. RSA models should be included in the phenotyping pipeline to provide reliable information on mature root systems to breeding research. PMID:28168270

COMPUTERIZED RISK AND BIOACCUMULATION SYSTEM (VERSION 1.0)

EPA Science Inventory

CRABS is a combination of a rule-based expert system and more traditional procedural programming techniques. ule-based expert systems attempt to emulate the decision making process of human experts within a clearly defined subject area. xpert systems consist of an "inference engi...

Design and implementation of the tree-based fuzzy logic controller.

PubMed

Liu, B D; Huang, C Y

1997-01-01

In this paper, a tree-based approach is proposed to design the fuzzy logic controller. Based on the proposed methodology, the fuzzy logic controller has the following merits: the fuzzy control rule can be extracted automatically from the input-output data of the system and the extraction process can be done in one-pass; owing to the fuzzy tree inference structure, the search spaces of the fuzzy inference process are largely reduced; the operation of the inference process can be simplified as a one-dimensional matrix operation because of the fuzzy tree approach; and the controller has regular and modular properties, so it is easy to be implemented by hardware. Furthermore, the proposed fuzzy tree approach has been applied to design the color reproduction system for verifying the proposed methodology. The color reproduction system is mainly used to obtain a color image through the printer that is identical to the original one. In addition to the software simulation, an FPGA is used to implement the prototype hardware system for real-time application. Experimental results show that the effect of color correction is quite good and that the prototype hardware system can operate correctly under the condition of 30 MHz clock rate.

Common-Sense Rule Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardi, Ilaria; Console, Luca

In the paper we show how rule-based inference can be made more flexible by exploiting semantic information associated with the concepts involved in the rules. We introduce flexible forms of common sense reasoning in which whenever no rule applies to a given situation, the inference engine can fire rules that apply to more general or to similar situations. This can be obtained by defining new forms of match between rules and the facts in the working memory and new forms of conflict resolution. We claim that in this way we can overcome some of the brittleness problems that are common in rule-based systems.

Ozone levels in the Empty Quarter of Saudi Arabia--application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy model.

PubMed

Rahman, Syed Masiur; Khondaker, A N; Khan, Rouf Ahmad

2013-05-01

In arid regions, primary pollutants may contribute to the increase of ozone levels and cause negative effects on biotic health. This study investigates the use of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for ozone prediction. The initial fuzzy inference system is developed by using fuzzy C-means (FCM) and subtractive clustering (SC) algorithms, which determines the important rules, increases generalization capability of the fuzzy inference system, reduces computational needs, and ensures speedy model development. The study area is located in the Empty Quarter of Saudi Arabia, which is considered as a source of huge potential for oil and gas field development. The developed clustering algorithm-based ANFIS model used meteorological data and derived meteorological data, along with NO and NO₂ concentrations and their transformations, as inputs. The root mean square error and Willmott's index of agreement of the FCM- and SC-based ANFIS models are 3.5 ppbv and 0.99, and 8.9 ppbv and 0.95, respectively. Based on the analysis of the performance measures and regression error characteristic curves, it is concluded that the FCM-based ANFIS model outperforms the SC-based ANFIS model.

A comparative study of artificial intelligent-based maximum power point tracking for photovoltaic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain Mutlag, Ammar; Mohamed, Azah; Shareef, Hussain

2016-03-01

Maximum power point tracking (MPPT) is normally required to improve the performance of photovoltaic (PV) systems. This paper presents artificial intelligent-based maximum power point tracking (AI-MPPT) by considering three artificial intelligent techniques, namely, artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system with seven triangular fuzzy sets (7-tri), and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system with seven gbell fuzzy sets. The AI-MPPT is designed for the 25 SolarTIFSTF-120P6 PV panels, with the capacity of 3 kW peak. A complete PV system is modelled using 300,000 data samples and simulated in the MATLAB/SIMULINK. The AI-MPPT has been tested under real environmental conditions for two days from 8 am to 18 pm. The results showed that the ANN based MPPT gives the most accurate performance and then followed by the 7-tri-based MPPT.

Agent autonomy approach to probabilistic physics-of-failure modeling of complex dynamic systems with interacting failure mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromek, Katherine Emily

A novel computational and inference framework of the physics-of-failure (PoF) reliability modeling for complex dynamic systems has been established in this research. The PoF-based reliability models are used to perform a real time simulation of system failure processes, so that the system level reliability modeling would constitute inferences from checking the status of component level reliability at any given time. The "agent autonomy" concept is applied as a solution method for the system-level probabilistic PoF-based (i.e. PPoF-based) modeling. This concept originated from artificial intelligence (AI) as a leading intelligent computational inference in modeling of multi agents systems (MAS). The concept of agent autonomy in the context of reliability modeling was first proposed by M. Azarkhail [1], where a fundamentally new idea of system representation by autonomous intelligent agents for the purpose of reliability modeling was introduced. Contribution of the current work lies in the further development of the agent anatomy concept, particularly the refined agent classification within the scope of the PoF-based system reliability modeling, new approaches to the learning and the autonomy properties of the intelligent agents, and modeling interacting failure mechanisms within the dynamic engineering system. The autonomous property of intelligent agents is defined as agent's ability to self-activate, deactivate or completely redefine their role in the analysis. This property of agents and the ability to model interacting failure mechanisms of the system elements makes the agent autonomy fundamentally different from all existing methods of probabilistic PoF-based reliability modeling. 1. Azarkhail, M., "Agent Autonomy Approach to Physics-Based Reliability Modeling of Structures and Mechanical Systems", PhD thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, 2007.

Knowledge Engineering Aspects of Affective Bi-Modal Educational Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alepis, Efthymios; Virvou, Maria; Kabassi, Katerina

This paper analyses the knowledge and software engineering aspects of educational applications that provide affective bi-modal human-computer interaction. For this purpose, a system that provides affective interaction based on evidence from two different modes has been developed. More specifically, the system's inferences about students' emotions are based on user input evidence from the keyboard and the microphone. Evidence from these two modes is combined by a user modelling component that incorporates user stereotypes as well as a multi criteria decision making theory. The mechanism that integrates the inferences from the two modes has been based on the results of two empirical studies that were conducted in the context of knowledge engineering of the system. The evaluation of the developed system showed significant improvements in the recognition of the emotional states of users.

Modeling of a 5-cell direct methanol fuel cell using adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rongrong; Qi, Liang; Xie, Xiaofeng; Ding, Qingqing; Li, Chunwen; Ma, ChenChi M.

The methanol concentrations, temperature and current were considered as inputs, the cell voltage was taken as output, and the performance of a direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC) was modeled by adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS). The artificial neural network (ANN) and polynomial-based models were selected to be compared with the ANFIS in respect of quality and accuracy. Based on the ANFIS model obtained, the characteristics of the DMFC were studied. The results show that temperature and methanol concentration greatly affect the performance of the DMFC. Within a restricted current range, the methanol concentration does not greatly affect the stack voltage. In order to obtain higher fuel utilization efficiency, the methanol concentrations and temperatures should be adjusted according to the load on the system.

Dynamic Querying of Mass-Storage RDF Data with Rule-Based Entailment Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ianni, Giovambattista; Krennwallner, Thomas; Martello, Alessandra; Polleres, Axel

RDF Schema (RDFS) as a lightweight ontology language is gaining popularity and, consequently, tools for scalable RDFS inference and querying are needed. SPARQL has become recently a W3C standard for querying RDF data, but it mostly provides means for querying simple RDF graphs only, whereas querying with respect to RDFS or other entailment regimes is left outside the current specification. In this paper, we show that SPARQL faces certain unwanted ramifications when querying ontologies in conjunction with RDF datasets that comprise multiple named graphs, and we provide an extension for SPARQL that remedies these effects. Moreover, since RDFS inference has a close relationship with logic rules, we generalize our approach to select a custom ruleset for specifying inferences to be taken into account in a SPARQL query. We show that our extensions are technically feasible by providing benchmark results for RDFS querying in our prototype system GiaBATA, which uses Datalog coupled with a persistent Relational Database as a back-end for implementing SPARQL with dynamic rule-based inference. By employing different optimization techniques like magic set rewriting our system remains competitive with state-of-the-art RDFS querying systems.

Implementing and analyzing the multi-threaded LP-inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolotova, S. Yu; Trofimenko, E. V.; Leschinskaya, M. V.

2018-03-01

The logical production equations provide new possibilities for the backward inference optimization in intelligent production-type systems. The strategy of a relevant backward inference is aimed at minimization of a number of queries to external information source (either to a database or an interactive user). The idea of the method is based on the computing of initial preimages set and searching for the true preimage. The execution of each stage can be organized independently and in parallel and the actual work at a given stage can also be distributed between parallel computers. This paper is devoted to the parallel algorithms of the relevant inference based on the advanced scheme of the parallel computations “pipeline” which allows to increase the degree of parallelism. The author also provides some details of the LP-structures implementation.

Mobile Context Provider for Social Networking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, André C.; Cardoso, João M. P.; Ferreira, Diogo R.; Diniz, Pedro C.

The ability to infer user context based on a mobile device together with a set of external sensors opens up the way to new context-aware services and applications. In this paper, we describe a mobile context provider that makes use of sensors available in a smartphone as well as sensors externally connected via bluetooth. We describe the system architecture from sensor data acquisition to feature extraction, context inference and the publication of context information to well-known social networking services such as Twitter and Hi5. In the current prototype, context inference is based on decision trees, but the middleware allows the integration of other inference engines. Experimental results suggest that the proposed solution is a promising approach to provide user context to both local and network-level services.

Recommendation System Based On Association Rules For Distributed E-Learning Management Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihai, Gabroveanu

2015-09-01

Traditional Learning Management Systems are installed on a single server where learning materials and user data are kept. To increase its performance, the Learning Management System can be installed on multiple servers; learning materials and user data could be distributed across these servers obtaining a Distributed Learning Management System. In this paper is proposed the prototype of a recommendation system based on association rules for Distributed Learning Management System. Information from LMS databases is analyzed using distributed data mining algorithms in order to extract the association rules. Then the extracted rules are used as inference rules to provide personalized recommendations. The quality of provided recommendations is improved because the rules used to make the inferences are more accurate, since these rules aggregate knowledge from all e-Learning systems included in Distributed Learning Management System.

Inferring nonlinear gene regulatory networks from gene expression data based on distance correlation.

PubMed

Guo, Xiaobo; Zhang, Ye; Hu, Wenhao; Tan, Haizhu; Wang, Xueqin

2014-01-01

Nonlinear dependence is general in regulation mechanism of gene regulatory networks (GRNs). It is vital to properly measure or test nonlinear dependence from real data for reconstructing GRNs and understanding the complex regulatory mechanisms within the cellular system. A recently developed measurement called the distance correlation (DC) has been shown powerful and computationally effective in nonlinear dependence for many situations. In this work, we incorporate the DC into inferring GRNs from the gene expression data without any underling distribution assumptions. We propose three DC-based GRNs inference algorithms: CLR-DC, MRNET-DC and REL-DC, and then compare them with the mutual information (MI)-based algorithms by analyzing two simulated data: benchmark GRNs from the DREAM challenge and GRNs generated by SynTReN network generator, and an experimentally determined SOS DNA repair network in Escherichia coli. According to both the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and the precision-recall (PR) curve, our proposed algorithms significantly outperform the MI-based algorithms in GRNs inference.

Inferring Nonlinear Gene Regulatory Networks from Gene Expression Data Based on Distance Correlation

PubMed Central

Guo, Xiaobo; Zhang, Ye; Hu, Wenhao; Tan, Haizhu; Wang, Xueqin

2014-01-01

Nonlinear dependence is general in regulation mechanism of gene regulatory networks (GRNs). It is vital to properly measure or test nonlinear dependence from real data for reconstructing GRNs and understanding the complex regulatory mechanisms within the cellular system. A recently developed measurement called the distance correlation (DC) has been shown powerful and computationally effective in nonlinear dependence for many situations. In this work, we incorporate the DC into inferring GRNs from the gene expression data without any underling distribution assumptions. We propose three DC-based GRNs inference algorithms: CLR-DC, MRNET-DC and REL-DC, and then compare them with the mutual information (MI)-based algorithms by analyzing two simulated data: benchmark GRNs from the DREAM challenge and GRNs generated by SynTReN network generator, and an experimentally determined SOS DNA repair network in Escherichia coli. According to both the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and the precision-recall (PR) curve, our proposed algorithms significantly outperform the MI-based algorithms in GRNs inference. PMID:24551058

Root architecture simulation improves the inference from seedling root phenotyping towards mature root systems.

PubMed

Zhao, Jiangsan; Bodner, Gernot; Rewald, Boris; Leitner, Daniel; Nagel, Kerstin A; Nakhforoosh, Alireza

2017-02-01

Root phenotyping provides trait information for plant breeding. A shortcoming of high-throughput root phenotyping is the limitation to seedling plants and failure to make inferences on mature root systems. We suggest root system architecture (RSA) models to predict mature root traits and overcome the inference problem. Sixteen pea genotypes were phenotyped in (i) seedling (Petri dishes) and (ii) mature (sand-filled columns) root phenotyping platforms. The RSA model RootBox was parameterized with seedling traits to simulate the fully developed root systems. Measured and modelled root length, first-order lateral number, and root distribution were compared to determine key traits for model-based prediction. No direct relationship in root traits (tap, lateral length, interbranch distance) was evident between phenotyping systems. RootBox significantly improved the inference over phenotyping platforms. Seedling plant tap and lateral root elongation rates and interbranch distance were sufficient model parameters to predict genotype ranking in total root length with an RSpearman of 0.83. Parameterization including uneven lateral spacing via a scaling function substantially improved the prediction of architectures underlying the differently sized root systems. We conclude that RSA models can solve the inference problem of seedling root phenotyping. RSA models should be included in the phenotyping pipeline to provide reliable information on mature root systems to breeding research. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

DEFINING THE PLAYERS IN HIGHER-ORDER NETWORKS: PREDICTIVE MODELING FOR REVERSE ENGINEERING FUNCTIONAL INFLUENCE NETWORKS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDermott, Jason E.; Costa, Michelle N.; Stevens, S.L.

A difficult problem that is currently growing rapidly due to the sharp increase in the amount of high-throughput data available for many systems is that of determining useful and informative causative influence networks. These networks can be used to predict behavior given observation of a small number of components, predict behavior at a future time point, or identify components that are critical to the functioning of the system under particular conditions. In these endeavors incorporating observations of systems from a wide variety of viewpoints can be particularly beneficial, but has often been undertaken with the objective of inferring networks thatmore » are generally applicable. The focus of the current work is to integrate both general observations and measurements taken for a particular pathology, that of ischemic stroke, to provide improved ability to produce useful predictions of systems behavior. A number of hybrid approaches have recently been proposed for network generation in which the Gene Ontology is used to filter or enrich network links inferred from gene expression data through reverse engineering methods. These approaches have been shown to improve the biological plausibility of the inferred relationships determined, but still treat knowledge-based and machine-learning inferences as incommensurable inputs. In this paper, we explore how further improvements may be achieved through a full integration of network inference insights achieved through application of the Gene Ontology and reverse engineering methods with specific reference to the construction of dynamic models of transcriptional regulatory networks. We show that integrating two approaches to network construction, one based on reverse-engineering from conditional transcriptional data, one based on reverse-engineering from in situ hybridization data, and another based on functional associations derived from Gene Ontology, using probabilities can improve results of clustering as evaluated by a predictive model of transcriptional expression levels.« less

Inferring Network Controls from Topology Using the Chomp Database

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-03

AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0033 INFERRING NETWORK CONTROLS FROM TOPOLOGY USING THE CHOMP DATABASE John Harer DUKE UNIVERSITY Final Report 12/03/2015...INFERRING NETWORK CONTROLS FROM TOPOLOGY USING THE CHOMP DATABASE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER FA9550-10-1-0436 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6...area of Topological Data Analysis (TDA) and it’s application to dynamical systems. The role of this work in the Complex Networks program is based on

Inferring Higher Functional Information for RIKEN Mouse Full-Length cDNA Clones With FACTS

PubMed Central

Nagashima, Takeshi; Silva, Diego G.; Petrovsky, Nikolai; Socha, Luis A.; Suzuki, Harukazu; Saito, Rintaro; Kasukawa, Takeya; Kurochkin, Igor V.; Konagaya, Akihiko; Schönbach, Christian

2003-01-01

FACTS (Functional Association/Annotation of cDNA Clones from Text/Sequence Sources) is a semiautomated knowledge discovery and annotation system that integrates molecular function information derived from sequence analysis results (sequence inferred) with functional information extracted from text. Text-inferred information was extracted from keyword-based retrievals of MEDLINE abstracts and by matching of gene or protein names to OMIM, BIND, and DIP database entries. Using FACTS, we found that 47.5% of the 60,770 RIKEN mouse cDNA FANTOM2 clone annotations were informative for text searches. MEDLINE queries yielded molecular interaction-containing sentences for 23.1% of the clones. When disease MeSH and GO terms were matched with retrieved abstracts, 22.7% of clones were associated with potential diseases, and 32.5% with GO identifiers. A significant number (23.5%) of disease MeSH-associated clones were also found to have a hereditary disease association (OMIM Morbidmap). Inferred neoplastic and nervous system disease represented 49.6% and 36.0% of disease MeSH-associated clones, respectively. A comparison of sequence-based GO assignments with informative text-based GO assignments revealed that for 78.2% of clones, identical GO assignments were provided for that clone by either method, whereas for 21.8% of clones, the assignments differed. In contrast, for OMIM assignments, only 28.5% of clones had identical sequence-based and text-based OMIM assignments. Sequence, sentence, and term-based functional associations are included in the FACTS database (http://facts.gsc.riken.go.jp/), which permits results to be annotated and explored through web-accessible keyword and sequence search interfaces. The FACTS database will be a critical tool for investigating the functional complexity of the mouse transcriptome, cDNA-inferred interactome (molecular interactions), and pathome (pathologies). PMID:12819151

Determination of Indonesian palm-oil-based bioenergy sustainability indicators using fuzzy inference system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkeman, Y.; Rizkyanti, R. A.; Hambali, E.

2017-05-01

Development of Indonesian palm-oil-based bioenergy faces an international challenge regarding to sustainability issue, indicated by the establishment of standards on sustainable bioenergy. Currently, Indonesia has sustainability standards limited to palm-oil cultivation, while other standards are lacking appropriateness for Indonesian palm-oil-based bioenergy sustainability regarding to real condition in Indonesia. Thus, Indonesia requires sustainability indicators for Indonesian palm-oil-based bioenergy to gain recognition and easiness in marketing it. Determination of sustainability indicators was accomplished through three stages, which were preliminary analysis, indicator assessment (using fuzzy inference system), and system validation. Global Bioenergy partnership (GBEP) was used as the standard for the assessment because of its general for use, internationally accepted, and it contained balanced proportion between environment, economic, and social aspects. Result showed that the number of sustainability indicators using FIS method are 21 indicators. The system developed has an accuracy of 85%.

In silico model-based inference: a contemporary approach for hypothesis testing in network biology

PubMed Central

Klinke, David J.

2014-01-01

Inductive inference plays a central role in the study of biological systems where one aims to increase their understanding of the system by reasoning backwards from uncertain observations to identify causal relationships among components of the system. These causal relationships are postulated from prior knowledge as a hypothesis or simply a model. Experiments are designed to test the model. Inferential statistics are used to establish a level of confidence in how well our postulated model explains the acquired data. This iterative process, commonly referred to as the scientific method, either improves our confidence in a model or suggests that we revisit our prior knowledge to develop a new model. Advances in technology impact how we use prior knowledge and data to formulate models of biological networks and how we observe cellular behavior. However, the approach for model-based inference has remained largely unchanged since Fisher, Neyman and Pearson developed the ideas in the early 1900’s that gave rise to what is now known as classical statistical hypothesis (model) testing. Here, I will summarize conventional methods for model-based inference and suggest a contemporary approach to aid in our quest to discover how cells dynamically interpret and transmit information for therapeutic aims that integrates ideas drawn from high performance computing, Bayesian statistics, and chemical kinetics. PMID:25139179

In silico model-based inference: a contemporary approach for hypothesis testing in network biology.

PubMed

Klinke, David J

2014-01-01

Inductive inference plays a central role in the study of biological systems where one aims to increase their understanding of the system by reasoning backwards from uncertain observations to identify causal relationships among components of the system. These causal relationships are postulated from prior knowledge as a hypothesis or simply a model. Experiments are designed to test the model. Inferential statistics are used to establish a level of confidence in how well our postulated model explains the acquired data. This iterative process, commonly referred to as the scientific method, either improves our confidence in a model or suggests that we revisit our prior knowledge to develop a new model. Advances in technology impact how we use prior knowledge and data to formulate models of biological networks and how we observe cellular behavior. However, the approach for model-based inference has remained largely unchanged since Fisher, Neyman and Pearson developed the ideas in the early 1900s that gave rise to what is now known as classical statistical hypothesis (model) testing. Here, I will summarize conventional methods for model-based inference and suggest a contemporary approach to aid in our quest to discover how cells dynamically interpret and transmit information for therapeutic aims that integrates ideas drawn from high performance computing, Bayesian statistics, and chemical kinetics. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics: Implementation of additional techniques (task E)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, P. Ann

1992-01-01

The NASA VEGetation Workbench (VEG) is a knowledge based system that infers vegetation characteristics from reflectance data. The VEG subgoal PROPORTION.GROUND.COVER has been completed and a number of additional techniques that infer the proportion ground cover of a sample have been implemented. Some techniques operate on sample data at a single wavelength. The techniques previously incorporated in VEG for other subgoals operated on data at a single wavelength so implementing the additional single wavelength techniques required no changes to the structure of VEG. Two techniques which use data at multiple wavelengths to infer proportion ground cover were also implemented. This work involved modifying the structure of VEG so that multiple wavelength techniques could be incorporated. All the new techniques were tested using both the VEG 'Research Mode' and the 'Automatic Mode.'

Toward Webscale, Rule-Based Inference on the Semantic Web Via Data Parallelism

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-01

Another work distinct from its peers is the work on approximate reasoning by Rudolph et al. [34] in which multiple inference sys- tems were combined not...Workshop Scalable Semantic Web Knowledge Base Systems, 2010, pp. 17–31. [34] S. Rudolph , T. Tserendorj, and P. Hitzler, “What is approximate reasoning...2013] [55] M. Duerst and M. Suignard. (2005, Jan .). RFC 3987 – internationalized resource identifiers (IRIs). IETF. [Online]. Available: http

Drug target inference through pathway analysis of genomics data

PubMed Central

Ma, Haisu; Zhao, Hongyu

2013-01-01

Statistical modeling coupled with bioinformatics is commonly used for drug discovery. Although there exist many approaches for single target based drug design and target inference, recent years have seen a paradigm shift to system-level pharmacological research. Pathway analysis of genomics data represents one promising direction for computational inference of drug targets. This article aims at providing a comprehensive review on the evolving issues is this field, covering methodological developments, their pros and cons, as well as future research directions. PMID:23369829

[Concepts of rational taxonomy].

PubMed

Pavlinov, I Ia

2011-01-01

The problems are discussed related to development of concepts of rational taxonomy and rational classifications (taxonomic systems) in biology. Rational taxonomy is based on the assumption that the key characteristic of rationality is deductive inference of certain partial judgments about reality under study from other judgments taken as more general and a priory true. Respectively, two forms of rationality are discriminated--ontological and epistemological ones. The former implies inference of classifications properties from general (essential) properties of the reality being investigated. The latter implies inference of the partial rules of judgments about classifications from more general (formal) rules. The following principal concepts of ontologically rational biological taxonomy are considered: "crystallographic" approach, inference of the orderliness of organismal diversity from general laws of Nature, inference of the above orderliness from the orderliness of ontogenetic development programs, based on the concept of natural kind and Cassirer's series theory, based on the systemic concept, based on the idea of periodic systems. Various concepts of ontologically rational taxonomy can be generalized by an idea of the causal taxonomy, according to which any biologically sound classification is founded on a contentwise model of biological diversity that includes explicit indication of general causes responsible for that diversity. It is asserted that each category of general causation and respective background model may serve as a basis for a particular ontologically rational taxonomy as a distinctive research program. Concepts of epistemologically rational taxonomy and classifications (taxonomic systems) can be interpreted in terms of application of certain epistemological criteria of substantiation of scientific status of taxonomy in general and of taxonomic systems in particular. These concepts include: consideration of taxonomy consistency from the standpoint of inductive and hypothetico-deductive argumentation schemes and such fundamental criteria of classifications naturalness as their prognostic capabilities; foundation of a theory of "general taxonomy" as a "general logic", including elements of the axiomatic method. The latter concept constitutes a core of the program of general classiology; it is inconsistent due to absence of anything like "general logic". It is asserted that elaboration of a theory of taxonomy as a biological discipline based on the formal principles of epistemological rationality is not feasible. Instead, it is to be elaborated as ontologically rational one based on biologically sound metatheories about biological diversity causes.

Inferring Time-Varying Network Topologies from Gene Expression Data

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

Most current methods for gene regulatory network identification lead to the inference of steady-state networks, that is, networks prevalent over all times, a hypothesis which has been challenged. There has been a need to infer and represent networks in a dynamic, that is, time-varying fashion, in order to account for different cellular states affecting the interactions amongst genes. In this work, we present an approach, regime-SSM, to understand gene regulatory networks within such a dynamic setting. The approach uses a clustering method based on these underlying dynamics, followed by system identification using a state-space model for each learnt cluster—to infer a network adjacency matrix. We finally indicate our results on the mouse embryonic kidney dataset as well as the T-cell activation-based expression dataset and demonstrate conformity with reported experimental evidence. PMID:18309363

Inferring time-varying network topologies from gene expression data.

PubMed

Rao, Arvind; Hero, Alfred O; States, David J; Engel, James Douglas

2007-01-01

Most current methods for gene regulatory network identification lead to the inference of steady-state networks, that is, networks prevalent over all times, a hypothesis which has been challenged. There has been a need to infer and represent networks in a dynamic, that is, time-varying fashion, in order to account for different cellular states affecting the interactions amongst genes. In this work, we present an approach, regime-SSM, to understand gene regulatory networks within such a dynamic setting. The approach uses a clustering method based on these underlying dynamics, followed by system identification using a state-space model for each learnt cluster--to infer a network adjacency matrix. We finally indicate our results on the mouse embryonic kidney dataset as well as the T-cell activation-based expression dataset and demonstrate conformity with reported experimental evidence.

On implementing clinical decision support: achieving scalability and maintainability by combining business rules and ontologies.

PubMed

Kashyap, Vipul; Morales, Alfredo; Hongsermeier, Tonya

2006-01-01

We present an approach and architecture for implementing scalable and maintainable clinical decision support at the Partners HealthCare System. The architecture integrates a business rules engine that executes declarative if-then rules stored in a rule-base referencing objects and methods in a business object model. The rules engine executes object methods by invoking services implemented on the clinical data repository. Specialized inferences that support classification of data and instances into classes are identified and an approach to implement these inferences using an OWL based ontology engine is presented. Alternative representations of these specialized inferences as if-then rules or OWL axioms are explored and their impact on the scalability and maintenance of the system is presented. Architectural alternatives for integration of clinical decision support functionality with the invoking application and the underlying clinical data repository; and their associated trade-offs are discussed and presented.

Predictive regulatory models in Drosophila melanogaster by integrative inference of transcriptional networks

PubMed Central

Marbach, Daniel; Roy, Sushmita; Ay, Ferhat; Meyer, Patrick E.; Candeias, Rogerio; Kahveci, Tamer; Bristow, Christopher A.; Kellis, Manolis

2012-01-01

Gaining insights on gene regulation from large-scale functional data sets is a grand challenge in systems biology. In this article, we develop and apply methods for transcriptional regulatory network inference from diverse functional genomics data sets and demonstrate their value for gene function and gene expression prediction. We formulate the network inference problem in a machine-learning framework and use both supervised and unsupervised methods to predict regulatory edges by integrating transcription factor (TF) binding, evolutionarily conserved sequence motifs, gene expression, and chromatin modification data sets as input features. Applying these methods to Drosophila melanogaster, we predict ∼300,000 regulatory edges in a network of ∼600 TFs and 12,000 target genes. We validate our predictions using known regulatory interactions, gene functional annotations, tissue-specific expression, protein–protein interactions, and three-dimensional maps of chromosome conformation. We use the inferred network to identify putative functions for hundreds of previously uncharacterized genes, including many in nervous system development, which are independently confirmed based on their tissue-specific expression patterns. Last, we use the regulatory network to predict target gene expression levels as a function of TF expression, and find significantly higher predictive power for integrative networks than for motif or ChIP-based networks. Our work reveals the complementarity between physical evidence of regulatory interactions (TF binding, motif conservation) and functional evidence (coordinated expression or chromatin patterns) and demonstrates the power of data integration for network inference and studies of gene regulation at the systems level. PMID:22456606

Memory-Based Simple Heuristics as Attribute Substitution: Competitive Tests of Binary Choice Inference Models.

PubMed

Honda, Hidehito; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Ueda, Kazuhiro

2017-05-01

Some researchers on binary choice inference have argued that people make inferences based on simple heuristics, such as recognition, fluency, or familiarity. Others have argued that people make inferences based on available knowledge. To examine the boundary between heuristic and knowledge usage, we examine binary choice inference processes in terms of attribute substitution in heuristic use (Kahneman & Frederick, 2005). In this framework, it is predicted that people will rely on heuristic or knowledge-based inference depending on the subjective difficulty of the inference task. We conducted competitive tests of binary choice inference models representing simple heuristics (fluency and familiarity heuristics) and knowledge-based inference models. We found that a simple heuristic model (especially a familiarity heuristic model) explained inference patterns for subjectively difficult inference tasks, and that a knowledge-based inference model explained subjectively easy inference tasks. These results were consistent with the predictions of the attribute substitution framework. Issues on usage of simple heuristics and psychological processes are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Portable inference engine: An extended CLIPS for real-time production systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Le, Thach; Homeier, Peter

1988-01-01

The present C-Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) architecture has not been optimized to deal with the constraints of real-time production systems. Matching in CLIPS is based on the Rete Net algorithm, whose assumption of working memory stability might fail to be satisfied in a system subject to real-time dataflow. Further, the CLIPS forward-chaining control mechanism with a predefined conflict resultion strategy may not effectively focus the system's attention on situation-dependent current priorties, or appropriately address different kinds of knowledge which might appear in a given application. Portable Inference Engine (PIE) is a production system architecture based on CLIPS which attempts to create a more general tool while addressing the problems of real-time expert systems. Features of the PIE design include a modular knowledge base, a modified Rete Net algorithm, a bi-directional control strategy, and multiple user-defined conflict resolution strategies. Problems associated with real-time applications are analyzed and an explanation is given for how the PIE architecture addresses these problems.

A Hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Model For Integrating Large Earth-Science Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porwal, A.; Carranza, J.; Hale, M.

2004-12-01

A GIS-based hybrid neuro-fuzzy approach to integration of large earth-science datasets for mineral prospectivity mapping is described. It implements a Takagi-Sugeno type fuzzy inference system in the framework of a four-layered feed-forward adaptive neural network. Each unique combination of the datasets is considered a feature vector whose components are derived by knowledge-based ordinal encoding of the constituent datasets. A subset of feature vectors with a known output target vector (i.e., unique conditions known to be associated with either a mineralized or a barren location) is used for the training of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. Training involves iterative adjustment of parameters of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system using a hybrid learning procedure for mapping each training vector to its output target vector with minimum sum of squared error. The trained adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system is used to process all feature vectors. The output for each feature vector is a value that indicates the extent to which a feature vector belongs to the mineralized class or the barren class. These values are used to generate a prospectivity map. The procedure is demonstrated by an application to regional-scale base metal prospectivity mapping in a study area located in the Aravalli metallogenic province (western India). A comparison of the hybrid neuro-fuzzy approach with pure knowledge-driven fuzzy and pure data-driven neural network approaches indicates that the former offers a superior method for integrating large earth-science datasets for predictive spatial mathematical modelling.

A comparison of gantry-mounted x-ray-based real-time target tracking methods.

PubMed

Montanaro, Tim; Nguyen, Doan Trang; Keall, Paul J; Booth, Jeremy; Caillet, Vincent; Eade, Thomas; Haddad, Carol; Shieh, Chun-Chien

2018-03-01

Most modern radiotherapy machines are built with a 2D kV imaging system. Combining this imaging system with a 2D-3D inference method would allow for a ready-made option for real-time 3D tumor tracking. This work investigates and compares the accuracy of four existing 2D-3D inference methods using both motion traces inferred from external surrogates and measured internally from implanted beacons. Tumor motion data from 160 fractions (46 thoracic/abdominal patients) of Synchrony traces (inferred traces), and 28 fractions (7 lung patients) of Calypso traces (internal traces) from the LIGHT SABR trial (NCT02514512) were used in this study. The motion traces were used as the ground truth. The ground truth trajectories were used in silico to generate 2D positions projected on the kV detector. These 2D traces were then passed to the 2D-3D inference methods: interdimensional correlation, Gaussian probability density function (PDF), arbitrary-shape PDF, and the Kalman filter. The inferred 3D positions were compared with the ground truth to determine tracking errors. The relationships between tracking error and motion magnitude, interdimensional correlation, and breathing periodicity index (BPI) were also investigated. Larger tracking errors were observed from the Calypso traces, with RMS and 95th percentile 3D errors of 0.84-1.25 mm and 1.72-2.64 mm, compared to 0.45-0.68 mm and 0.74-1.13 mm from the Synchrony traces. The Gaussian PDF method was found to be the most accurate, followed by the Kalman filter, the interdimensional correlation method, and the arbitrary-shape PDF method. Tracking error was found to strongly and positively correlate with motion magnitude for both the Synchrony and Calypso traces and for all four methods. Interdimensional correlation and BPI were found to negatively correlate with tracking error only for the Synchrony traces. The Synchrony traces exhibited higher interdimensional correlation than the Calypso traces especially in the anterior-posterior direction. Inferred traces often exhibit higher interdimensional correlation, which are not true representation of thoracic/abdominal motion and may underestimate kV-based tracking errors. The use of internal traces acquired from systems such as Calypso is advised for future kV-based tracking studies. The Gaussian PDF method is the most accurate 2D-3D inference method for tracking thoracic/abdominal targets. Motion magnitude has significant impact on 2D-3D inference error, and should be considered when estimating kV-based tracking error. © 2018 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Intelligent control for modeling of real-time reservoir operation, part II: artificial neural network with operating rule curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Ya-Ting; Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John

2005-04-01

To bridge the gap between academic research and actual operation, we propose an intelligent control system for reservoir operation. The methodology includes two major processes, the knowledge acquired and implemented, and the inference system. In this study, a genetic algorithm (GA) and a fuzzy rule base (FRB) are used to extract knowledge based on the historical inflow data with a design objective function and on the operating rule curves respectively. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is then used to implement the knowledge, to create the fuzzy inference system, and then to estimate the optimal reservoir operation. To investigate its applicability and practicability, the Shihmen reservoir, Taiwan, is used as a case study. For the purpose of comparison, a simulation of the currently used M-5 operating rule curve is also performed. The results demonstrate that (1) the GA is an efficient way to search the optimal input-output patterns, (2) the FRB can extract the knowledge from the operating rule curves, and (3) the ANFIS models built on different types of knowledge can produce much better performance than the traditional M-5 curves in real-time reservoir operation. Moreover, we show that the model can be more intelligent for reservoir operation if more information (or knowledge) is involved.

EMR-based medical knowledge representation and inference via Markov random fields and distributed representation learning.

PubMed

Zhao, Chao; Jiang, Jingchi; Guan, Yi; Guo, Xitong; He, Bin

2018-05-01

Electronic medical records (EMRs) contain medical knowledge that can be used for clinical decision support (CDS). Our objective is to develop a general system that can extract and represent knowledge contained in EMRs to support three CDS tasks-test recommendation, initial diagnosis, and treatment plan recommendation-given the condition of a patient. We extracted four kinds of medical entities from records and constructed an EMR-based medical knowledge network (EMKN), in which nodes are entities and edges reflect their co-occurrence in a record. Three bipartite subgraphs (bigraphs) were extracted from the EMKN, one to support each task. One part of the bigraph was the given condition (e.g., symptoms), and the other was the condition to be inferred (e.g., diseases). Each bigraph was regarded as a Markov random field (MRF) to support the inference. We proposed three graph-based energy functions and three likelihood-based energy functions. Two of these functions are based on knowledge representation learning and can provide distributed representations of medical entities. Two EMR datasets and three metrics were utilized to evaluate the performance. As a whole, the evaluation results indicate that the proposed system outperformed the baseline methods. The distributed representation of medical entities does reflect similarity relationships with respect to knowledge level. Combining EMKN and MRF is an effective approach for general medical knowledge representation and inference. Different tasks, however, require individually designed energy functions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Functional networks inference from rule-based machine learning models.

PubMed

Lazzarini, Nicola; Widera, Paweł; Williamson, Stuart; Heer, Rakesh; Krasnogor, Natalio; Bacardit, Jaume

2016-01-01

Functional networks play an important role in the analysis of biological processes and systems. The inference of these networks from high-throughput (-omics) data is an area of intense research. So far, the similarity-based inference paradigm (e.g. gene co-expression) has been the most popular approach. It assumes a functional relationship between genes which are expressed at similar levels across different samples. An alternative to this paradigm is the inference of relationships from the structure of machine learning models. These models are able to capture complex relationships between variables, that often are different/complementary to the similarity-based methods. We propose a protocol to infer functional networks from machine learning models, called FuNeL. It assumes, that genes used together within a rule-based machine learning model to classify the samples, might also be functionally related at a biological level. The protocol is first tested on synthetic datasets and then evaluated on a test suite of 8 real-world datasets related to human cancer. The networks inferred from the real-world data are compared against gene co-expression networks of equal size, generated with 3 different methods. The comparison is performed from two different points of view. We analyse the enriched biological terms in the set of network nodes and the relationships between known disease-associated genes in a context of the network topology. The comparison confirms both the biological relevance and the complementary character of the knowledge captured by the FuNeL networks in relation to similarity-based methods and demonstrates its potential to identify known disease associations as core elements of the network. Finally, using a prostate cancer dataset as a case study, we confirm that the biological knowledge captured by our method is relevant to the disease and consistent with the specialised literature and with an independent dataset not used in the inference process. The implementation of our network inference protocol is available at: http://ico2s.org/software/funel.html.

Integrative approach for inference of gene regulatory networks using lasso-based random featuring and application to psychiatric disorders.

PubMed

Kim, Dongchul; Kang, Mingon; Biswas, Ashis; Liu, Chunyu; Gao, Jean

2016-08-10

Inferring gene regulatory networks is one of the most interesting research areas in the systems biology. Many inference methods have been developed by using a variety of computational models and approaches. However, there are two issues to solve. First, depending on the structural or computational model of inference method, the results tend to be inconsistent due to innately different advantages and limitations of the methods. Therefore the combination of dissimilar approaches is demanded as an alternative way in order to overcome the limitations of standalone methods through complementary integration. Second, sparse linear regression that is penalized by the regularization parameter (lasso) and bootstrapping-based sparse linear regression methods were suggested in state of the art methods for network inference but they are not effective for a small sample size data and also a true regulator could be missed if the target gene is strongly affected by an indirect regulator with high correlation or another true regulator. We present two novel network inference methods based on the integration of three different criteria, (i) z-score to measure the variation of gene expression from knockout data, (ii) mutual information for the dependency between two genes, and (iii) linear regression-based feature selection. Based on these criterion, we propose a lasso-based random feature selection algorithm (LARF) to achieve better performance overcoming the limitations of bootstrapping as mentioned above. In this work, there are three main contributions. First, our z score-based method to measure gene expression variations from knockout data is more effective than similar criteria of related works. Second, we confirmed that the true regulator selection can be effectively improved by LARF. Lastly, we verified that an integrative approach can clearly outperform a single method when two different methods are effectively jointed. In the experiments, our methods were validated by outperforming the state of the art methods on DREAM challenge data, and then LARF was applied to inferences of gene regulatory network associated with psychiatric disorders.

Evaluation of artificial time series microarray data for dynamic gene regulatory network inference.

PubMed

Xenitidis, P; Seimenis, I; Kakolyris, S; Adamopoulos, A

2017-08-07

High-throughput technology like microarrays is widely used in the inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs). We focused on time series data since we are interested in the dynamics of GRNs and the identification of dynamic networks. We evaluated the amount of information that exists in artificial time series microarray data and the ability of an inference process to produce accurate models based on them. We used dynamic artificial gene regulatory networks in order to create artificial microarray data. Key features that characterize microarray data such as the time separation of directly triggered genes, the percentage of directly triggered genes and the triggering function type were altered in order to reveal the limits that are imposed by the nature of microarray data on the inference process. We examined the effect of various factors on the inference performance such as the network size, the presence of noise in microarray data, and the network sparseness. We used a system theory approach and examined the relationship between the pole placement of the inferred system and the inference performance. We examined the relationship between the inference performance in the time domain and the true system parameter identification. Simulation results indicated that time separation and the percentage of directly triggered genes are crucial factors. Also, network sparseness, the triggering function type and noise in input data affect the inference performance. When two factors were simultaneously varied, it was found that variation of one parameter significantly affects the dynamic response of the other. Crucial factors were also examined using a real GRN and acquired results confirmed simulation findings with artificial data. Different initial conditions were also used as an alternative triggering approach. Relevant results confirmed that the number of datasets constitutes the most significant parameter with regard to the inference performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A HO-IRT Based Diagnostic Assessment System with Constructed Response Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Chih-Wei; Kuo, Bor-Chen; Liao, Chen-Huei

2011-01-01

The aim of the present study was to develop an on-line assessment system with constructed response items in the context of elementary mathematics curriculum. The system recorded the problem solving process of constructed response items and transfered the process to response codes for further analyses. An inference mechanism based on artificial…

Approximate Degrees of Similarity between a User's Knowledge and the Tutorial Systems' Knowledge Base

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mogharreban, Namdar

2004-01-01

A typical tutorial system functions by means of interaction between four components: the expert knowledge base component, the inference engine component, the learner's knowledge component and the user interface component. In typical tutorial systems the interaction and the sequence of presentation as well as the mode of evaluation are…

Bayesian multimodel inference for dose-response studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Albers, P.H.

2007-01-01

Statistical inference in dose?response studies is model-based: The analyst posits a mathematical model of the relation between exposure and response, estimates parameters of the model, and reports conclusions conditional on the model. Such analyses rarely include any accounting for the uncertainties associated with model selection. The Bayesian inferential system provides a convenient framework for model selection and multimodel inference. In this paper we briefly describe the Bayesian paradigm and Bayesian multimodel inference. We then present a family of models for multinomial dose?response data and apply Bayesian multimodel inferential methods to the analysis of data on the reproductive success of American kestrels (Falco sparveriuss) exposed to various sublethal dietary concentrations of methylmercury.

Perception as Evidence Accumulation and Bayesian Inference: Insights from Masked Priming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norris, Dennis; Kinoshita, Sachiko

2008-01-01

The authors argue that perception is Bayesian inference based on accumulation of noisy evidence and that, in masked priming, the perceptual system is tricked into treating the prime and the target as a single object. Of the 2 algorithms considered for formalizing how the evidence sampled from a prime and target is combined, only 1 was shown to be…

A reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model as a software sensor for rapid estimation of five-day biochemical oxygen demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noori, Roohollah; Safavi, Salman; Nateghi Shahrokni, Seyyed Afshin

2013-07-01

The five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) is one of the key parameters in water quality management. In this study, a novel approach, i.e., reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ROANFIS) model was developed for rapid estimation of BOD5. In addition, an uncertainty analysis of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ROANFIS models was carried out based on Monte-Carlo simulation. Accuracy analysis of ANFIS and ROANFIS models based on both developed discrepancy ratio and threshold statistics revealed that the selected ROANFIS model was superior. Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and root mean square error for the best fitted ROANFIS model were 0.96 and 7.12, respectively. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis of the developed models indicated that the selected ROANFIS had less uncertainty than the ANFIS model and accurately forecasted BOD5 in the Sefidrood River Basin. Besides, the uncertainty analysis also showed that bracketed predictions by 95% confidence bound and d-factor in the testing steps for the selected ROANFIS model were 94% and 0.83, respectively.

Land cover classification of Landsat 8 satellite data based on Fuzzy Logic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taufik, Afirah; Sakinah Syed Ahmad, Sharifah

2016-06-01

The aim of this paper is to propose a method to classify the land covers of a satellite image based on fuzzy rule-based system approach. The study uses bands in Landsat 8 and other indices, such as Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as input for the fuzzy inference system. The selected three indices represent our main three classes called water, built- up land, and vegetation. The combination of the original multispectral bands and selected indices provide more information about the image. The parameter selection of fuzzy membership is performed by using a supervised method known as ANFIS (Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) training. The fuzzy system is tested for the classification on the land cover image that covers Klang Valley area. The results showed that the fuzzy system approach is effective and can be explored and implemented for other areas of Landsat data.

Inference Engine in an Intelligent Ship Course-Keeping System

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The article presents an original design of an expert system, whose function is to automatically stabilize ship's course. The focus is put on the inference engine, a mechanism that consists of two functional components. One is responsible for the construction of state space regions, implemented on the basis of properly processed signals recorded by sensors from the input and output of an object. The other component is responsible for generating a control decision based on the knowledge obtained in the first module. The computing experiments described herein prove the effective and correct operation of the proposed system. PMID:29317859

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics: Prototype help system (Task 1)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

The NASA Vegetation Workbench (VEG) is a knowledge based system that infers vegetation characteristics from reflectance data. A prototype of the VEG subgoal HELP.SYSTEM has been completed and the Help System has been added to the VEG system. It is loaded when the user first clicks on the HELP.SYSTEM option in the Tool Box Menu. The Help System provides a user tool to support needed user information. It also provides interactive tools the scientist may use to develop new help messages and to modify existing help messages that are attached to VEG screens. The system automatically manages system and file operations needed to preserve new or modified help messages. The Help System was tested both as a help system development and a help system user tool.

Finding user personal interests by tweet-mining using advanced machine learning algorithm in R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krithika, L. B.; Roy, P.; Asha Jerlin, M.

2017-11-01

The social-media plays a key role in every individual’s life by anyone’s personal views about their liking-ness/disliking-ness. This methodology is a sharp departure from the traditional techniques of inferring interests of a user from the tweets that he/she posts or receives. It is showed that the topics of interest inferred by the proposed methodology are far superior than the topics extracted by state-of-the-art techniques such as using topic models (Labelled LDA) on tweets. Based upon the proposed methodology, a system has been built, “Who is interested in what”, which can infer the interests of millions of Twitter users. A novel mechanism is proposed to infer topics of interest of individual users in the twitter social network. It has been observed that in twitter, a user generally follows experts on various topics of his/her interest in order to acquire information on those topics. A methodology based on social annotations is used to first deduce the topical expertise of popular twitter users and then transitively infer the interests of the users who follow them.

Issues on the use of meta-knowledge in expert systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Facemire, Jon; Chen, Imao

1988-01-01

Meta knowledge is knowledge about knowledge; knowledge that is not domain specific but is concerned instead with its own internal structure. Several past systems have used meta-knowledge to improve the nature of the user interface, to maintain the knowledge base, and to control the inference engine. More extensive use of meta-knowledge is probable for the future as larger scale problems are considered. A proposed system architecture is presented and discussed in terms of meta-knowledge applications. The principle components of this system: the user support subsystem, the control structure, the knowledge base, the inference engine, and a learning facility are all outlined and discussed in light of the use of meta-knowledge. Problems with meta-constructs are also mentioned but it is concluded that the use of meta-knowledge is crucial for increasingly autonomous operations.

SIG-VISA: Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, D.; Mayeda, K. M.; Myers, S. C.; Russell, S.

2013-12-01

Traditional seismic monitoring systems rely on discrete detections produced by station processing software; however, while such detections may constitute a useful summary of station activity, they discard large amounts of information present in the original recorded signal. We present SIG-VISA (Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis), a system for seismic monitoring through Bayesian inference on seismic signals. By directly modeling the recorded signal, our approach incorporates additional information unavailable to detection-based methods, enabling higher sensitivity and more accurate localization using techniques such as waveform matching. SIG-VISA's Bayesian forward model of seismic signal envelopes includes physically-derived models of travel times and source characteristics as well as Gaussian process (kriging) statistical models of signal properties that combine interpolation of historical data with extrapolation of learned physical trends. Applying Bayesian inference, we evaluate the model on earthquakes as well as the 2009 DPRK test event, demonstrating a waveform matching effect as part of the probabilistic inference, along with results on event localization and sensitivity. In particular, we demonstrate increased sensitivity from signal-based modeling, in which the SIGVISA signal model finds statistical evidence for arrivals even at stations for which the IMS station processing failed to register any detection.

Faults Discovery By Using Mined Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Charles

2005-01-01

Fault discovery in the complex systems consist of model based reasoning, fault tree analysis, rule based inference methods, and other approaches. Model based reasoning builds models for the systems either by mathematic formulations or by experiment model. Fault Tree Analysis shows the possible causes of a system malfunction by enumerating the suspect components and their respective failure modes that may have induced the problem. The rule based inference build the model based on the expert knowledge. Those models and methods have one thing in common; they have presumed some prior-conditions. Complex systems often use fault trees to analyze the faults. Fault diagnosis, when error occurs, is performed by engineers and analysts performing extensive examination of all data gathered during the mission. International Space Station (ISS) control center operates on the data feedback from the system and decisions are made based on threshold values by using fault trees. Since those decision-making tasks are safety critical and must be done promptly, the engineers who manually analyze the data are facing time challenge. To automate this process, this paper present an approach that uses decision trees to discover fault from data in real-time and capture the contents of fault trees as the initial state of the trees.

Models of morality

PubMed Central

Crockett, Molly J.

2013-01-01

Moral dilemmas engender conflicts between two traditions: consequentialism, which evaluates actions based on their outcomes, and deontology, which evaluates actions themselves. These strikingly resemble two distinct decision-making architectures: a model-based system that selects actions based on inferences about their consequences; and a model-free system that selects actions based on their reinforcement history. Here, I consider how these systems, along with a Pavlovian system that responds reflexively to rewards and punishments, can illuminate puzzles in moral psychology. PMID:23845564

An algebra-based method for inferring gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Vera-Licona, Paola; Jarrah, Abdul; Garcia-Puente, Luis David; McGee, John; Laubenbacher, Reinhard

2014-03-26

The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental observations is at the heart of systems biology. This includes the inference of both the network topology and its dynamics. While there are many algorithms available to infer the network topology from experimental data, less emphasis has been placed on methods that infer network dynamics. Furthermore, since the network inference problem is typically underdetermined, it is essential to have the option of incorporating into the inference process, prior knowledge about the network, along with an effective description of the search space of dynamic models. Finally, it is also important to have an understanding of how a given inference method is affected by experimental and other noise in the data used. This paper contains a novel inference algorithm using the algebraic framework of Boolean polynomial dynamical systems (BPDS), meeting all these requirements. The algorithm takes as input time series data, including those from network perturbations, such as knock-out mutant strains and RNAi experiments. It allows for the incorporation of prior biological knowledge while being robust to significant levels of noise in the data used for inference. It uses an evolutionary algorithm for local optimization with an encoding of the mathematical models as BPDS. The BPDS framework allows an effective representation of the search space for algebraic dynamic models that improves computational performance. The algorithm is validated with both simulated and experimental microarray expression profile data. Robustness to noise is tested using a published mathematical model of the segment polarity gene network in Drosophila melanogaster. Benchmarking of the algorithm is done by comparison with a spectrum of state-of-the-art network inference methods on data from the synthetic IRMA network to demonstrate that our method has good precision and recall for the network reconstruction task, while also predicting several of the dynamic patterns present in the network. Boolean polynomial dynamical systems provide a powerful modeling framework for the reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks, that enables a rich mathematical structure on the model search space. A C++ implementation of the method, distributed under LPGL license, is available, together with the source code, at http://www.paola-vera-licona.net/Software/EARevEng/REACT.html.

Gene network analysis: from heart development to cardiac therapy.

PubMed

Ferrazzi, Fulvia; Bellazzi, Riccardo; Engel, Felix B

2015-03-01

Networks offer a flexible framework to represent and analyse the complex interactions between components of cellular systems. In particular gene networks inferred from expression data can support the identification of novel hypotheses on regulatory processes. In this review we focus on the use of gene network analysis in the study of heart development. Understanding heart development will promote the elucidation of the aetiology of congenital heart disease and thus possibly improve diagnostics. Moreover, it will help to establish cardiac therapies. For example, understanding cardiac differentiation during development will help to guide stem cell differentiation required for cardiac tissue engineering or to enhance endogenous repair mechanisms. We introduce different methodological frameworks to infer networks from expression data such as Boolean and Bayesian networks. Then we present currently available temporal expression data in heart development and discuss the use of network-based approaches in published studies. Collectively, our literature-based analysis indicates that gene network analysis constitutes a promising opportunity to infer therapy-relevant regulatory processes in heart development. However, the use of network-based approaches has so far been limited by the small amount of samples in available datasets. Thus, we propose to acquire high-resolution temporal expression data to improve the mathematical descriptions of regulatory processes obtained with gene network inference methodologies. Especially probabilistic methods that accommodate the intrinsic variability of biological systems have the potential to contribute to a deeper understanding of heart development.

Using Ontologies to Formalize Services Specifications in Multi-Agent Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breitman, Karin Koogan; Filho, Aluizio Haendchen; Haeusler, Edward Hermann

2004-01-01

One key issue in multi-agent systems (MAS) is their ability to interact and exchange information autonomously across applications. To secure agent interoperability, designers must rely on a communication protocol that allows software agents to exchange meaningful information. In this paper we propose using ontologies as such communication protocol. Ontologies capture the semantics of the operations and services provided by agents, allowing interoperability and information exchange in a MAS. Ontologies are a formal, machine processable, representation that allows to capture the semantics of a domain and, to derive meaningful information by way of logical inference. In our proposal we use a formal knowledge representation language (OWL) that translates into Description Logics (a subset of first order logic), thus eliminating ambiguities and providing a solid base for machine based inference. The main contribution of this approach is to make the requirements explicit, centralize the specification in a single document (the ontology itself), at the same that it provides a formal, unambiguous representation that can be processed by automated inference machines.

A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Gene Regulatory Networks in Seed Development in Arabidopsis

PubMed Central

Ni, Ying; Aghamirzaie, Delasa; Elmarakeby, Haitham; Collakova, Eva; Li, Song; Grene, Ruth; Heath, Lenwood S.

2016-01-01

Gene regulatory networks (GRNs) provide a representation of relationships between regulators and their target genes. Several methods for GRN inference, both unsupervised and supervised, have been developed to date. Because regulatory relationships consistently reprogram in diverse tissues or under different conditions, GRNs inferred without specific biological contexts are of limited applicability. In this report, a machine learning approach is presented to predict GRNs specific to developing Arabidopsis thaliana embryos. We developed the Beacon GRN inference tool to predict GRNs occurring during seed development in Arabidopsis based on a support vector machine (SVM) model. We developed both global and local inference models and compared their performance, demonstrating that local models are generally superior for our application. Using both the expression levels of the genes expressed in developing embryos and prior known regulatory relationships, GRNs were predicted for specific embryonic developmental stages. The targets that are strongly positively correlated with their regulators are mostly expressed at the beginning of seed development. Potential direct targets were identified based on a match between the promoter regions of these inferred targets and the cis elements recognized by specific regulators. Our analysis also provides evidence for previously unknown inhibitory effects of three positive regulators of gene expression. The Beacon GRN inference tool provides a valuable model system for context-specific GRN inference and is freely available at https://github.com/BeaconProjectAtVirginiaTech/beacon_network_inference.git. PMID:28066488

Another expert system rule inference based on DNA molecule logic gates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WÄ siewicz, Piotr

2013-10-01

With the help of silicon industry microfluidic processors were invented utilizing nano membrane valves, pumps and microreactors. These so called lab-on-a-chips combined together with molecular computing create molecular-systems-ona- chips. This work presents a new approach to implementation of molecular inference systems. It requires the unique representation of signals by DNA molecules. The main part of this work includes the concept of logic gates based on typical genetic engineering reactions. The presented method allows for constructing logic gates with many inputs and for executing them at the same quantity of elementary operations, regardless of a number of input signals. Every microreactor of the lab-on-a-chip performs one unique operation on input molecules and can be connected by dataflow output-input connections to other ones.

Shear wave prediction using committee fuzzy model constrained by lithofacies, Zagros basin, SW Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiroodi, Sadjad Kazem; Ghafoori, Mohammad; Ansari, Hamid Reza; Lashkaripour, Golamreza; Ghanadian, Mostafa

2017-02-01

The main purpose of this study is to introduce the geological controlling factors in improving an intelligence-based model to estimate shear wave velocity from seismic attributes. The proposed method includes three main steps in the framework of geological events in a complex sedimentary succession located in the Persian Gulf. First, the best attributes were selected from extracted seismic data. Second, these attributes were transformed into shear wave velocity using fuzzy inference systems (FIS) such as Sugeno's fuzzy inference (SFIS), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference (ANFIS) and optimized fuzzy inference (OFIS). Finally, a committee fuzzy machine (CFM) based on bat-inspired algorithm (BA) optimization was applied to combine previous predictions into an enhanced solution. In order to show the geological effect on improving the prediction, the main classes of predominate lithofacies in the reservoir of interest including shale, sand, and carbonate were selected and then the proposed algorithm was performed with and without lithofacies constraint. The results showed a good agreement between real and predicted shear wave velocity in the lithofacies-based model compared to the model without lithofacies especially in sand and carbonate.

Evaluation of fuzzy inference systems using fuzzy least squares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barone, Joseph M.

1992-01-01

Efforts to develop evaluation methods for fuzzy inference systems which are not based on crisp, quantitative data or processes (i.e., where the phenomenon the system is built to describe or control is inherently fuzzy) are just beginning. This paper suggests that the method of fuzzy least squares can be used to perform such evaluations. Regressing the desired outputs onto the inferred outputs can provide both global and local measures of success. The global measures have some value in an absolute sense, but they are particularly useful when competing solutions (e.g., different numbers of rules, different fuzzy input partitions) are being compared. The local measure described here can be used to identify specific areas of poor fit where special measures (e.g., the use of emphatic or suppressive rules) can be applied. Several examples are discussed which illustrate the applicability of the method as an evaluation tool.

ANFIS-based modelling for coagulant dosage in drinking water treatment plant: a case study.

PubMed

Heddam, Salim; Bermad, Abdelmalek; Dechemi, Noureddine

2012-04-01

Coagulation is the most important stage in drinking water treatment processes for the maintenance of acceptable treated water quality and economic plant operation, which involves many complex physical and chemical phenomena. Moreover, coagulant dosing rate is non-linearly correlated to raw water characteristics such as turbidity, conductivity, pH, temperature, etc. As such, coagulation reaction is hard or even impossible to control satisfactorily by conventional methods. Traditionally, jar tests are used to determine the optimum coagulant dosage. However, this is expensive and time-consuming and does not enable responses to changes in raw water quality in real time. Modelling can be used to overcome these limitations. In this study, an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) was used for modelling of coagulant dosage in drinking water treatment plant of Boudouaou, Algeria. Six on-line variables of raw water quality including turbidity, conductivity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, ultraviolet absorbance, and the pH of water, and alum dosage were used to build the coagulant dosage model. Two ANFIS-based Neuro-fuzzy systems are presented. The two Neuro-fuzzy systems are: (1) grid partition-based fuzzy inference system (FIS), named ANFIS-GRID, and (2) subtractive clustering based (FIS), named ANFIS-SUB. The low root mean square error and high correlation coefficient values were obtained with ANFIS-SUB method of a first-order Sugeno type inference. This study demonstrates that ANFIS-SUB outperforms ANFIS-GRID due to its simplicity in parameter selection and its fitness in the target problem.

The role of familiarity in binary choice inferences.

PubMed

Honda, Hidehito; Abe, Keiga; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Yamagishi, Kimihiko

2011-07-01

In research on the recognition heuristic (Goldstein & Gigerenzer, Psychological Review, 109, 75-90, 2002), knowledge of recognized objects has been categorized as "recognized" or "unrecognized" without regard to the degree of familiarity of the recognized object. In the present article, we propose a new inference model--familiarity-based inference. We hypothesize that when subjective knowledge levels (familiarity) of recognized objects differ, the degree of familiarity of recognized objects will influence inferences. Specifically, people are predicted to infer that the more familiar object in a pair of two objects has a higher criterion value on the to-be-judged dimension. In two experiments, using a binary choice task, we examined inferences about populations in a pair of two cities. Results support predictions of familiarity-based inference. Participants inferred that the more familiar city in a pair was more populous. Statistical modeling showed that individual differences in familiarity-based inference lie in the sensitivity to differences in familiarity. In addition, we found that familiarity-based inference can be generally regarded as an ecologically rational inference. Furthermore, when cue knowledge about the inference criterion was available, participants made inferences based on the cue knowledge about population instead of familiarity. Implications of the role of familiarity in psychological processes are discussed.

Analysis, Simulation, and Verification of Knowledge-Based, Rule-Based, and Expert Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinchey, Mike; Rash, James; Erickson, John; Gracanin, Denis; Rouff, Chris

2010-01-01

Mathematically sound techniques are used to view a knowledge-based system (KBS) as a set of processes executing in parallel and being enabled in response to specific rules being fired. The set of processes can be manipulated, examined, analyzed, and used in a simulation. The tool that embodies this technology may warn developers of errors in their rules, but may also highlight rules (or sets of rules) in the system that are underspecified (or overspecified) and need to be corrected for the KBS to operate as intended. The rules embodied in a KBS specify the allowed situations, events, and/or results of the system they describe. In that sense, they provide a very abstract specification of a system. The system is implemented through the combination of the system specification together with an appropriate inference engine, independent of the algorithm used in that inference engine. Viewing the rule base as a major component of the specification, and choosing an appropriate specification notation to represent it, reveals how additional power can be derived from an approach to the knowledge-base system that involves analysis, simulation, and verification. This innovative approach requires no special knowledge of the rules, and allows a general approach where standardized analysis, verification, simulation, and model checking techniques can be applied to the KBS.

``Carbon Credits'' for Resource-Bounded Computations Using Amortised Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jost, Steffen; Loidl, Hans-Wolfgang; Hammond, Kevin; Scaife, Norman; Hofmann, Martin

Bounding resource usage is important for a number of areas, notably real-time embedded systems and safety-critical systems. In this paper, we present a fully automatic static type-based analysis for inferring upper bounds on resource usage for programs involving general algebraic datatypes and full recursion. Our method can easily be used to bound any countable resource, without needing to revisit proofs. We apply the analysis to the important metrics of worst-case execution time, stack- and heap-space usage. Our results from several realistic embedded control applications demonstrate good matches between our inferred bounds and measured worst-case costs for heap and stack usage. For time usage we infer good bounds for one application. Where we obtain less tight bounds, this is due to the use of software floating-point libraries.

Historical Text Comprehension Reflective Tutorial Dialogue System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grigoriadou, Maria; Tsaganou, Grammatiki; Cavoura, Theodora

2005-01-01

The Reflective Tutorial Dialogue System (ReTuDiS) is a system for learner modelling historical text comprehension through reflective dialogue. The system infers learners' cognitive profiles and constructs their learner models. Based on the learner model the system plans the appropriate--personalized for learners--reflective tutorial dialogue in…

Fuzzy logic inference-based Pavement Friction Management and real-time slippery warning systems: A proof of concept study.

PubMed

Najafi, Shahriar; Flintsch, Gerardo W; Khaleghian, Seyedmeysam

2016-05-01

Minimizing roadway crashes and fatalities is one of the primary objectives of highway engineers, and can be achieved in part through appropriate maintenance practices. Maintaining an appropriate level of friction is a crucial maintenance practice, due to the effect it has on roadway safety. This paper presents a fuzzy logic inference system that predicts the rate of vehicle crashes based on traffic level, speed limit, and surface friction. Mamdani and Sugeno fuzzy controllers were used to develop the model. The application of the proposed fuzzy control system in a real-time slippery road warning system is demonstrated as a proof of concept. The results of this study provide a decision support model for highway agencies to monitor their network's friction and make appropriate judgments to correct deficiencies based on crash risk. Furthermore, this model can be implemented in the connected vehicle environment to warn drivers of potentially slippery locations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Inference of Time-Evolving Coupled Dynamical Systems in the Presence of Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stankovski, Tomislav; Duggento, Andrea; McClintock, Peter V. E.; Stefanovska, Aneta

2012-07-01

A new method is introduced for analysis of interactions between time-dependent coupled oscillators, based on the signals they generate. It distinguishes unsynchronized dynamics from noise-induced phase slips and enables the evolution of the coupling functions and other parameters to be followed. It is based on phase dynamics, with Bayesian inference of the time-evolving parameters achieved by shaping the prior densities to incorporate knowledge of previous samples. The method is tested numerically and applied to reveal and quantify the time-varying nature of cardiorespiratory interactions.

Memory-Based Simple Heuristics as Attribute Substitution: Competitive Tests of Binary Choice Inference Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Honda, Hidehito; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Ueda, Kazuhiro

2017-01-01

Some researchers on binary choice inference have argued that people make inferences based on simple heuristics, such as recognition, fluency, or familiarity. Others have argued that people make inferences based on available knowledge. To examine the boundary between heuristic and knowledge usage, we examine binary choice inference processes in…

Multiplex genotyping system for efficient inference of matrilineal genetic ancestry with continental resolution

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background In recent years, phylogeographic studies have produced detailed knowledge on the worldwide distribution of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variants, linking specific clades of the mtDNA phylogeny with certain geographic areas. However, a multiplex genotyping system for the detection of the mtDNA haplogroups of major continental distribution that would be desirable for efficient DNA-based bio-geographic ancestry testing in various applications is still missing. Results Three multiplex genotyping assays, based on single-base primer extension technology, were developed targeting a total of 36 coding-region mtDNA variants that together differentiate 43 matrilineal haplo-/paragroups. These include the major diagnostic haplogroups for Africa, Western Eurasia, Eastern Eurasia and Native America. The assays show high sensitivity with respect to the amount of template DNA: successful amplification could still be obtained when using as little as 4 pg of genomic DNA and the technology is suitable for medium-throughput analyses. Conclusions We introduce an efficient and sensitive multiplex genotyping system for bio-geographic ancestry inference from mtDNA that provides resolution on the continental level. The method can be applied in forensics, to aid tracing unknown suspects, as well as in population studies, genealogy and personal ancestry testing. For more complete inferences of overall bio-geographic ancestry from DNA, the mtDNA system provided here can be combined with multiplex systems for suitable autosomal and, in the case of males, Y-chromosomal ancestry-sensitive DNA markers. PMID:21429198

Design of a modified adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system classifier for medical diagnosis of Pima Indians Diabetes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sagir, Abdu Masanawa; Sathasivam, Saratha

2017-08-01

Medical diagnosis is the process of determining which disease or medical condition explains a person's determinable signs and symptoms. Diagnosis of most of the diseases is very expensive as many tests are required for predictions. This paper aims to introduce an improved hybrid approach for training the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system with Modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm using analytical derivation scheme for computation of Jacobian matrix. The goal is to investigate how certain diseases are affected by patient's characteristics and measurement such as abnormalities or a decision about presence or absence of a disease. To achieve an accurate diagnosis at this complex stage of symptom analysis, the physician may need efficient diagnosis system to classify and predict patient condition by using an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) pre-processed by grid partitioning. The proposed hybridised intelligent system was tested with Pima Indian Diabetes dataset obtained from the University of California at Irvine's (UCI) machine learning repository. The proposed method's performance was evaluated based on training and test datasets. In addition, an attempt was done to specify the effectiveness of the performance measuring total accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. In comparison, the proposed method achieves superior performance when compared to conventional ANFIS based gradient descent algorithm and some related existing methods. The software used for the implementation is MATLAB R2014a (version 8.3) and executed in PC Intel Pentium IV E7400 processor with 2.80 GHz speed and 2.0 GB of RAM.

Using Fuzzy Gaussian Inference and Genetic Programming to Classify 3D Human Motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khoury, Mehdi; Liu, Honghai

This research introduces and builds on the concept of Fuzzy Gaussian Inference (FGI) (Khoury and Liu in Proceedings of UKCI, 2008 and IEEE Workshop on Robotic Intelligence in Informationally Structured Space (RiiSS 2009), 2009) as a novel way to build Fuzzy Membership Functions that map to hidden Probability Distributions underlying human motions. This method is now combined with a Genetic Programming Fuzzy rule-based system in order to classify boxing moves from natural human Motion Capture data. In this experiment, FGI alone is able to recognise seven different boxing stances simultaneously with an accuracy superior to a GMM-based classifier. Results seem to indicate that adding an evolutionary Fuzzy Inference Engine on top of FGI improves the accuracy of the classifier in a consistent way.

Machine health prognostics using the Bayesian-inference-based probabilistic indication and high-order particle filtering framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jianbo

2015-12-01

Prognostics is much efficient to achieve zero-downtime performance, maximum productivity and proactive maintenance of machines. Prognostics intends to assess and predict the time evolution of machine health degradation so that machine failures can be predicted and prevented. A novel prognostics system is developed based on the data-model-fusion scheme using the Bayesian inference-based self-organizing map (SOM) and an integration of logistic regression (LR) and high-order particle filtering (HOPF). In this prognostics system, a baseline SOM is constructed to model the data distribution space of healthy machine under an assumption that predictable fault patterns are not available. Bayesian inference-based probability (BIP) derived from the baseline SOM is developed as a quantification indication of machine health degradation. BIP is capable of offering failure probability for the monitored machine, which has intuitionist explanation related to health degradation state. Based on those historic BIPs, the constructed LR and its modeling noise constitute a high-order Markov process (HOMP) to describe machine health propagation. HOPF is used to solve the HOMP estimation to predict the evolution of the machine health in the form of a probability density function (PDF). An on-line model update scheme is developed to adapt the Markov process changes to machine health dynamics quickly. The experimental results on a bearing test-bed illustrate the potential applications of the proposed system as an effective and simple tool for machine health prognostics.

Northeast Artificial Intelligence Consortium (NAIC). Volume 14. Knowledge Base Retrieval Using Plausible Inference

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

Improvements to Research Environment ............... 6 14.3 Overview of Research ....... .......................... 7 14.3.1 An Experimental Study of...efficient inference methods. The critical issue we have studied is the effectiveness of retrieval. By this, we mean how well the system does at...locating objects that are judged relevant by the user . Designing effective retrieval strategies is difficult because in real environments the query

Final Report, DOE Early Career Award: Predictive modeling of complex physical systems: new tools for statistical inference, uncertainty quantification, and experimental design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marzouk, Youssef

Predictive simulation of complex physical systems increasingly rests on the interplay of experimental observations with computational models. Key inputs, parameters, or structural aspects of models may be incomplete or unknown, and must be developed from indirect and limited observations. At the same time, quantified uncertainties are needed to qualify computational predictions in the support of design and decision-making. In this context, Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and limited data, but at prohibitive computional expense. This project intends to make rigorous predictive modeling *feasible* in complex physical systems, via accelerated and scalable tools for uncertainty quantification, Bayesianmore » inference, and experimental design. Specific objectives are as follows: 1. Develop adaptive posterior approximations and dimensionality reduction approaches for Bayesian inference in high-dimensional nonlinear systems. 2. Extend accelerated Bayesian methodologies to large-scale {\\em sequential} data assimilation, fully treating nonlinear models and non-Gaussian state and parameter distributions. 3. Devise efficient surrogate-based methods for Bayesian model selection and the learning of model structure. 4. Develop scalable simulation/optimization approaches to nonlinear Bayesian experimental design, for both parameter inference and model selection. 5. Demonstrate these inferential tools on chemical kinetic models in reacting flow, constructing and refining thermochemical and electrochemical models from limited data. Demonstrate Bayesian filtering on canonical stochastic PDEs and in the dynamic estimation of inhomogeneous subsurface properties and flow fields.« less

Shared neural circuits for mentalizing about the self and others.

PubMed

Lombardo, Michael V; Chakrabarti, Bhismadev; Bullmore, Edward T; Wheelwright, Sally J; Sadek, Susan A; Suckling, John; Baron-Cohen, Simon

2010-07-01

Although many examples exist for shared neural representations of self and other, it is unknown how such shared representations interact with the rest of the brain. Furthermore, do high-level inference-based shared mentalizing representations interact with lower level embodied/simulation-based shared representations? We used functional neuroimaging (fMRI) and a functional connectivity approach to assess these questions during high-level inference-based mentalizing. Shared mentalizing representations in ventromedial prefrontal cortex, posterior cingulate/precuneus, and temporo-parietal junction (TPJ) all exhibited identical functional connectivity patterns during mentalizing of both self and other. Connectivity patterns were distributed across low-level embodied neural systems such as the frontal operculum/ventral premotor cortex, the anterior insula, the primary sensorimotor cortex, and the presupplementary motor area. These results demonstrate that identical neural circuits are implementing processes involved in mentalizing of both self and other and that the nature of such processes may be the integration of low-level embodied processes within higher level inference-based mentalizing.

Bayesian Inference of High-Dimensional Dynamical Ocean Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.; Lolla, S. V. T.; Gupta, A.; Haley, P. J., Jr.

2015-12-01

This presentation addresses a holistic set of challenges in high-dimension ocean Bayesian nonlinear estimation: i) predict the probability distribution functions (pdfs) of large nonlinear dynamical systems using stochastic partial differential equations (PDEs); ii) assimilate data using Bayes' law with these pdfs; iii) predict the future data that optimally reduce uncertainties; and (iv) rank the known and learn the new model formulations themselves. Overall, we allow the joint inference of the state, equations, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions of dynamical models. Examples are provided for time-dependent fluid and ocean flows, including cavity, double-gyre and Strait flows with jets and eddies. The Bayesian model inference, based on limited observations, is illustrated first by the estimation of obstacle shapes and positions in fluid flows. Next, the Bayesian inference of biogeochemical reaction equations and of their states and parameters is presented, illustrating how PDE-based machine learning can rigorously guide the selection and discovery of complex ecosystem models. Finally, the inference of multiscale bottom gravity current dynamics is illustrated, motivated in part by classic overflows and dense water formation sites and their relevance to climate monitoring and dynamics. This is joint work with our MSEAS group at MIT.

A Machine Learning System for Analyzing Human Tactics in a Game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Hirotaka; Tanaka, Toshimitsu; Sugie, Noboru

In order to realize advanced man-machine interfaces, it is desired to develop a system that can infer the mental state of human users and then return appropriate responses. As the first step toward the above goal, we developed a system capable of inferring human tactics in a simple game played between the system and a human. We present a machine learning system that plays a color expectation game. The system infers the tactics of the opponent, and then decides the action based on the result. We employed a modified version of classifier system like XCS in order to design the system. In addition, three methods are proposed in order to accelerate the learning rate. They are a masking method, an iterative method, and tactics templates. The results of computer experiments confirmed that the proposed methods effectively accelerate the machine learning. The masking method and the iterative method are effective to a simple strategy that considers only a part of past information. However, study speed of these methods is not enough for the tactics that refers to a lot of past information. For the case, the tactics template was able to settle the study rapidly when the tactics is identified.

Data mining in forecasting PVT correlations of crude oil systems based on Type1 fuzzy logic inference systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Sebakhy, Emad A.

2009-09-01

Pressure-volume-temperature properties are very important in the reservoir engineering computations. There are many empirical approaches for predicting various PVT properties based on empirical correlations and statistical regression models. Last decade, researchers utilized neural networks to develop more accurate PVT correlations. These achievements of neural networks open the door to data mining techniques to play a major role in oil and gas industry. Unfortunately, the developed neural networks correlations are often limited, and global correlations are usually less accurate compared to local correlations. Recently, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems have been proposed as a new intelligence framework for both prediction and classification based on fuzzy clustering optimization criterion and ranking. This paper proposes neuro-fuzzy inference systems for estimating PVT properties of crude oil systems. This new framework is an efficient hybrid intelligence machine learning scheme for modeling the kind of uncertainty associated with vagueness and imprecision. We briefly describe the learning steps and the use of the Takagi Sugeno and Kang model and Gustafson-Kessel clustering algorithm with K-detected clusters from the given database. It has featured in a wide range of medical, power control system, and business journals, often with promising results. A comparative study will be carried out to compare their performance of this new framework with the most popular modeling techniques, such as neural networks, nonlinear regression, and the empirical correlations algorithms. The results show that the performance of neuro-fuzzy systems is accurate, reliable, and outperform most of the existing forecasting techniques. Future work can be achieved by using neuro-fuzzy systems for clustering the 3D seismic data, identification of lithofacies types, and other reservoir characterization.

Inferential modeling and predictive feedback control in real-time motion compensation using the treatment couch during radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Peng; D'Souza, Warren D.; McAvoy, Thomas J.; Liu, K. J. Ray

2007-09-01

Tumor motion induced by respiration presents a challenge to the reliable delivery of conformal radiation treatments. Real-time motion compensation represents the technologically most challenging clinical solution but has the potential to overcome the limitations of existing methods. The performance of a real-time couch-based motion compensation system is mainly dependent on two aspects: the ability to infer the internal anatomical position and the performance of the feedback control system. In this paper, we propose two novel methods for the two aspects respectively, and then combine the proposed methods into one system. To accurately estimate the internal tumor position, we present partial-least squares (PLS) regression to predict the position of the diaphragm using skin-based motion surrogates. Four radio-opaque markers were placed on the abdomen of patients who underwent fluoroscopic imaging of the diaphragm. The coordinates of the markers served as input variables and the position of the diaphragm served as the output variable. PLS resulted in lower prediction errors compared with standard multiple linear regression (MLR). The performance of the feedback control system depends on the system dynamics and dead time (delay between the initiation and execution of the control action). While the dynamics of the system can be inverted in a feedback control system, the dead time cannot be inverted. To overcome the dead time of the system, we propose a predictive feedback control system by incorporating forward prediction using least-mean-square (LMS) and recursive least square (RLS) filtering into the couch-based control system. Motion data were obtained using a skin-based marker. The proposed predictive feedback control system was benchmarked against pure feedback control (no forward prediction) and resulted in a significant performance gain. Finally, we combined the PLS inference model and the predictive feedback control to evaluate the overall performance of the feedback control system. Our results show that, with the tumor motion unknown but inferred by skin-based markers through the PLS model, the predictive feedback control system was able to effectively compensate intra-fraction motion.

Inference of gene regulatory networks from time series by Tsallis entropy

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from large-scale expression profiles is one of the most challenging problems of Systems Biology nowadays. Many techniques and models have been proposed for this task. However, it is not generally possible to recover the original topology with great accuracy, mainly due to the short time series data in face of the high complexity of the networks and the intrinsic noise of the expression measurements. In order to improve the accuracy of GRNs inference methods based on entropy (mutual information), a new criterion function is here proposed. Results In this paper we introduce the use of generalized entropy proposed by Tsallis, for the inference of GRNs from time series expression profiles. The inference process is based on a feature selection approach and the conditional entropy is applied as criterion function. In order to assess the proposed methodology, the algorithm is applied to recover the network topology from temporal expressions generated by an artificial gene network (AGN) model as well as from the DREAM challenge. The adopted AGN is based on theoretical models of complex networks and its gene transference function is obtained from random drawing on the set of possible Boolean functions, thus creating its dynamics. On the other hand, DREAM time series data presents variation of network size and its topologies are based on real networks. The dynamics are generated by continuous differential equations with noise and perturbation. By adopting both data sources, it is possible to estimate the average quality of the inference with respect to different network topologies, transfer functions and network sizes. Conclusions A remarkable improvement of accuracy was observed in the experimental results by reducing the number of false connections in the inferred topology by the non-Shannon entropy. The obtained best free parameter of the Tsallis entropy was on average in the range 2.5 ≤ q ≤ 3.5 (hence, subextensive entropy), which opens new perspectives for GRNs inference methods based on information theory and for investigation of the nonextensivity of such networks. The inference algorithm and criterion function proposed here were implemented and included in the DimReduction software, which is freely available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/dimreduction and http://code.google.com/p/dimreduction/. PMID:21545720

Ionospheric and Birkeland current distributions inferred from the MAGSAT magnetometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zanetti, L. J.; Potemra, T. A.; Baumjohann, W.

1983-01-01

Ionospheric and field-aligned sheet current density distributions are presently inferred by means of MAGSAT vector magnetometer data, together with an accurate magnetic field model. By comparing Hall current densities inferred from the MAGSAT data and those inferred from simultaneously recorded ground based data acquired by the Scandinavian magnetometer array, it is determined that the former have previously been underestimated due to high damping of magnetic variations with high spatial wave numbers between the ionosphere and the MAGSAT orbit. Among important results of this study is noted the fact that the Birkeland and electrojet current systems are colocated. The analyses have shown a tendency for triangular rather than constant electrojet current distributions as a function of latitude, consistent with the statistical, uniform regions 1 and 2 Birkeland current patterns.

Claimed Versus Calculated Cue-Weighting Systems for Screening Employee Applicants

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blevins, David E.

1975-01-01

This research compares the cue-weighting system which assessors claimed they used with the cue-weighting system one would infer they used based on multiple observations of their assessing behavior. The claimed cue-weighting systems agreed poorly with the empirically calculated cue-weighting systems for all assessors except one who utilized only…

Path-space variational inference for non-equilibrium coarse-grained systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harmandaris, Vagelis, E-mail: harman@uoc.gr; Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics; Kalligiannaki, Evangelia, E-mail: ekalligian@tem.uoc.gr

In this paper we discuss information-theoretic tools for obtaining optimized coarse-grained molecular models for both equilibrium and non-equilibrium molecular simulations. The latter are ubiquitous in physicochemical and biological applications, where they are typically associated with coupling mechanisms, multi-physics and/or boundary conditions. In general the non-equilibrium steady states are not known explicitly as they do not necessarily have a Gibbs structure. The presented approach can compare microscopic behavior of molecular systems to parametric and non-parametric coarse-grained models using the relative entropy between distributions on the path space and setting up a corresponding path-space variational inference problem. The methods can become entirelymore » data-driven when the microscopic dynamics are replaced with corresponding correlated data in the form of time series. Furthermore, we present connections and generalizations of force matching methods in coarse-graining with path-space information methods. We demonstrate the enhanced transferability of information-based parameterizations to different observables, at a specific thermodynamic point, due to information inequalities. We discuss methodological connections between information-based coarse-graining of molecular systems and variational inference methods primarily developed in the machine learning community. However, we note that the work presented here addresses variational inference for correlated time series due to the focus on dynamics. The applicability of the proposed methods is demonstrated on high-dimensional stochastic processes given by overdamped and driven Langevin dynamics of interacting particles.« less

Design-based and model-based inference in surveys of freshwater mollusks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.

1999-01-01

Well-known concepts in statistical inference and sampling theory are used to develop recommendations for planning and analyzing the results of quantitative surveys of freshwater mollusks. Two methods of inference commonly used in survey sampling (design-based and model-based) are described and illustrated using examples relevant in surveys of freshwater mollusks. The particular objectives of a survey and the type of information observed in each unit of sampling can be used to help select the sampling design and the method of inference. For example, the mean density of a sparsely distributed population of mollusks can be estimated with higher precision by using model-based inference or by using design-based inference with adaptive cluster sampling than by using design-based inference with conventional sampling. More experience with quantitative surveys of natural assemblages of freshwater mollusks is needed to determine the actual benefits of different sampling designs and inferential procedures.

Functional mechanisms of probabilistic inference in feature- and space-based attentional systems.

PubMed

Dombert, Pascasie L; Kuhns, Anna; Mengotti, Paola; Fink, Gereon R; Vossel, Simone

2016-11-15

Humans flexibly attend to features or locations and these processes are influenced by the probability of sensory events. We combined computational modeling of response times with fMRI to compare the functional correlates of (re-)orienting, and the modulation by probabilistic inference in spatial and feature-based attention systems. Twenty-four volunteers performed two task versions with spatial or color cues. Percentage of cue validity changed unpredictably. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used to derive trial-wise estimates of probability-dependent attention, entering the fMRI analysis as parametric regressors. Attentional orienting activated a dorsal frontoparietal network in both tasks, without significant parametric modulation. Spatially invalid trials activated a bilateral frontoparietal network and the precuneus, while invalid feature trials activated the left intraparietal sulcus (IPS). Probability-dependent attention modulated activity in the precuneus, left posterior IPS, middle occipital gyrus, and right temporoparietal junction for spatial attention, and in the left anterior IPS for feature-based and spatial attention. These findings provide novel insights into the generality and specificity of the functional basis of attentional control. They suggest that probabilistic inference can distinctively affect each attentional subsystem, but that there is an overlap in the left IPS, which responds to both spatial and feature-based expectancy violations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accident/Mishap Investigation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, Richard; Wolfe, Shawn; Gawdiak, Yuri; Carvalho, Robert; Panontin, Tina; Williams, James; Sturken, Ian

2007-01-01

InvestigationOrganizer (IO) is a Web-based collaborative information system that integrates the generic functionality of a database, a document repository, a semantic hypermedia browser, and a rule-based inference system with specialized modeling and visualization functionality to support accident/mishap investigation teams. This accessible, online structure is designed to support investigators by allowing them to make explicit, shared, and meaningful links among evidence, causal models, findings, and recommendations.

Children's Category-Based Inferences Affect Classification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ross, Brian H.; Gelman, Susan A.; Rosengren, Karl S.

2005-01-01

Children learn many new categories and make inferences about these categories. Much work has examined how children make inferences on the basis of category knowledge. However, inferences may also affect what is learned about a category. Four experiments examine whether category-based inferences during category learning influence category knowledge…

An algebra-based method for inferring gene regulatory networks

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The inference of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental observations is at the heart of systems biology. This includes the inference of both the network topology and its dynamics. While there are many algorithms available to infer the network topology from experimental data, less emphasis has been placed on methods that infer network dynamics. Furthermore, since the network inference problem is typically underdetermined, it is essential to have the option of incorporating into the inference process, prior knowledge about the network, along with an effective description of the search space of dynamic models. Finally, it is also important to have an understanding of how a given inference method is affected by experimental and other noise in the data used. Results This paper contains a novel inference algorithm using the algebraic framework of Boolean polynomial dynamical systems (BPDS), meeting all these requirements. The algorithm takes as input time series data, including those from network perturbations, such as knock-out mutant strains and RNAi experiments. It allows for the incorporation of prior biological knowledge while being robust to significant levels of noise in the data used for inference. It uses an evolutionary algorithm for local optimization with an encoding of the mathematical models as BPDS. The BPDS framework allows an effective representation of the search space for algebraic dynamic models that improves computational performance. The algorithm is validated with both simulated and experimental microarray expression profile data. Robustness to noise is tested using a published mathematical model of the segment polarity gene network in Drosophila melanogaster. Benchmarking of the algorithm is done by comparison with a spectrum of state-of-the-art network inference methods on data from the synthetic IRMA network to demonstrate that our method has good precision and recall for the network reconstruction task, while also predicting several of the dynamic patterns present in the network. Conclusions Boolean polynomial dynamical systems provide a powerful modeling framework for the reverse engineering of gene regulatory networks, that enables a rich mathematical structure on the model search space. A C++ implementation of the method, distributed under LPGL license, is available, together with the source code, at http://www.paola-vera-licona.net/Software/EARevEng/REACT.html. PMID:24669835

A Simple and Effective Remedial Learning System with a Fuzzy Expert System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, C.-C.; Guo, K.-H.; Lin, Y.-C.

2016-01-01

This study aims at implementing a simple and effective remedial learning system. Based on fuzzy inference, a remedial learning material selection system is proposed for a digital logic course. Two learning concepts of the course have been used in the proposed system: number systems and combinational logic. We conducted an experiment to validate…

Learning Quantitative Sequence-Function Relationships from Massively Parallel Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atwal, Gurinder S.; Kinney, Justin B.

2016-03-01

A fundamental aspect of biological information processing is the ubiquity of sequence-function relationships—functions that map the sequence of DNA, RNA, or protein to a biochemically relevant activity. Most sequence-function relationships in biology are quantitative, but only recently have experimental techniques for effectively measuring these relationships been developed. The advent of such "massively parallel" experiments presents an exciting opportunity for the concepts and methods of statistical physics to inform the study of biological systems. After reviewing these recent experimental advances, we focus on the problem of how to infer parametric models of sequence-function relationships from the data produced by these experiments. Specifically, we retrace and extend recent theoretical work showing that inference based on mutual information, not the standard likelihood-based approach, is often necessary for accurately learning the parameters of these models. Closely connected with this result is the emergence of "diffeomorphic modes"—directions in parameter space that are far less constrained by data than likelihood-based inference would suggest. Analogous to Goldstone modes in physics, diffeomorphic modes arise from an arbitrarily broken symmetry of the inference problem. An analytically tractable model of a massively parallel experiment is then described, providing an explicit demonstration of these fundamental aspects of statistical inference. This paper concludes with an outlook on the theoretical and computational challenges currently facing studies of quantitative sequence-function relationships.

A novel prosodic-information synthesizer based on recurrent fuzzy neural network for the Chinese TTS system.

PubMed

Lin, Chin-Teng; Wu, Rui-Cheng; Chang, Jyh-Yeong; Liang, Sheng-Fu

2004-02-01

In this paper, a new technique for the Chinese text-to-speech (TTS) system is proposed. Our major effort focuses on the prosodic information generation. New methodologies for constructing fuzzy rules in a prosodic model simulating human's pronouncing rules are developed. The proposed Recurrent Fuzzy Neural Network (RFNN) is a multilayer recurrent neural network (RNN) which integrates a Self-cOnstructing Neural Fuzzy Inference Network (SONFIN) into a recurrent connectionist structure. The RFNN can be functionally divided into two parts. The first part adopts the SONFIN as a prosodic model to explore the relationship between high-level linguistic features and prosodic information based on fuzzy inference rules. As compared to conventional neural networks, the SONFIN can always construct itself with an economic network size in high learning speed. The second part employs a five-layer network to generate all prosodic parameters by directly using the prosodic fuzzy rules inferred from the first part as well as other important features of syllables. The TTS system combined with the proposed method can behave not only sandhi rules but also the other prosodic phenomena existing in the traditional TTS systems. Moreover, the proposed scheme can even find out some new rules about prosodic phrase structure. The performance of the proposed RFNN-based prosodic model is verified by imbedding it into a Chinese TTS system with a Chinese monosyllable database based on the time-domain pitch synchronous overlap add (TD-PSOLA) method. Our experimental results show that the proposed RFNN can generate proper prosodic parameters including pitch means, pitch shapes, maximum energy levels, syllable duration, and pause duration. Some synthetic sounds are online available for demonstration.

Bayesian Inference for Signal-Based Seismic Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, D.

2015-12-01

Traditional seismic monitoring systems rely on discrete detections produced by station processing software, discarding significant information present in the original recorded signal. SIG-VISA (Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis) is a system for global seismic monitoring through Bayesian inference on seismic signals. By modeling signals directly, our forward model is able to incorporate a rich representation of the physics underlying the signal generation process, including source mechanisms, wave propagation, and station response. This allows inference in the model to recover the qualitative behavior of recent geophysical methods including waveform matching and double-differencing, all as part of a unified Bayesian monitoring system that simultaneously detects and locates events from a global network of stations. We demonstrate recent progress in scaling up SIG-VISA to efficiently process the data stream of global signals recorded by the International Monitoring System (IMS), including comparisons against existing processing methods that show increased sensitivity from our signal-based model and in particular the ability to locate events (including aftershock sequences that can tax analyst processing) precisely from waveform correlation effects. We also provide a Bayesian analysis of an alleged low-magnitude event near the DPRK test site in May 2010 [1] [2], investigating whether such an event could plausibly be detected through automated processing in a signal-based monitoring system. [1] Zhang, Miao and Wen, Lianxing. "Seismological Evidence for a Low-Yield Nuclear Test on 12 May 2010 in North Korea". Seismological Research Letters, January/February 2015. [2] Richards, Paul. "A Seismic Event in North Korea on 12 May 2010". CTBTO SnT 2015 oral presentation, video at https://video-archive.ctbto.org/index.php/kmc/preview/partner_id/103/uiconf_id/4421629/entry_id/0_ymmtpps0/delivery/http

Dynamical Bayesian inference of time-evolving interactions: from a pair of coupled oscillators to networks of oscillators.

PubMed

Duggento, Andrea; Stankovski, Tomislav; McClintock, Peter V E; Stefanovska, Aneta

2012-12-01

Living systems have time-evolving interactions that, until recently, could not be identified accurately from recorded time series in the presence of noise. Stankovski et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 109, 024101 (2012)] introduced a method based on dynamical Bayesian inference that facilitates the simultaneous detection of time-varying synchronization, directionality of influence, and coupling functions. It can distinguish unsynchronized dynamics from noise-induced phase slips. The method is based on phase dynamics, with Bayesian inference of the time-evolving parameters being achieved by shaping the prior densities to incorporate knowledge of previous samples. We now present the method in detail using numerically generated data, data from an analog electronic circuit, and cardiorespiratory data. We also generalize the method to encompass networks of interacting oscillators and thus demonstrate its applicability to small-scale networks.

An ANFIS-based on B2C electronic commerce transaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Juan, E-mail: linjuanliucaihong@qq.com; Liu, Chenlian, E-mail: chenglian.liu@gmail.com; Guo, Yongning, E-mail: guoyn@163.com

2014-10-06

The purpose of this study is to use an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system to model a fuzzy logic-based system (FIS) for supporting decision-making process in B2C electronic commerce transaction. Firstly we introduce FIS in B2C electronic commerce transaction and ANFIS. Then we use ANFIS to model FIS with different membership functions(MF). Lastly we give a conclusion.

An ANFIS-based on B2C electronic commerce transaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Juan; Liu, Chenlian; Guo, Yongning

2014-10-01

The purpose of this study is to use an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system to model a fuzzy logic-based system (FIS) for supporting decision-making process in B2C electronic commerce transaction. Firstly we introduce FIS in B2C electronic commerce transaction and ANFIS. Then we use ANFIS to model FIS with different membership functions(MF). Lastly we give a conclusion.

An Architecture for Performance Optimization in a Collaborative Knowledge-Based Approach for Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Gadeo-Martos, Manuel Angel; Fernandez-Prieto, Jose Angel; Canada-Bago, Joaquin; Velasco, Juan Ramon

2011-01-01

Over the past few years, Intelligent Spaces (ISs) have received the attention of many Wireless Sensor Network researchers. Recently, several studies have been devoted to identify their common capacities and to set up ISs over these networks. However, little attention has been paid to integrating Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems into collaborative Wireless Sensor Networks for the purpose of implementing ISs. This work presents a distributed architecture proposal for collaborative Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems embedded in Wireless Sensor Networks, which has been designed to optimize the implementation of ISs. This architecture includes the following: (a) an optimized design for the inference engine; (b) a visual interface; (c) a module to reduce the redundancy and complexity of the knowledge bases; (d) a module to evaluate the accuracy of the new knowledge base; (e) a module to adapt the format of the rules to the structure used by the inference engine; and (f) a communications protocol. As a real-world application of this architecture and the proposed methodologies, we show an application to the problem of modeling two plagues of the olive tree: prays (olive moth, Prays oleae Bern.) and repilo (caused by the fungus Spilocaea oleagina). The results show that the architecture presented in this paper significantly decreases the consumption of resources (memory, CPU and battery) without a substantial decrease in the accuracy of the inferred values. PMID:22163687

An architecture for performance optimization in a collaborative knowledge-based approach for wireless sensor networks.

PubMed

Gadeo-Martos, Manuel Angel; Fernandez-Prieto, Jose Angel; Canada-Bago, Joaquin; Velasco, Juan Ramon

2011-01-01

Over the past few years, Intelligent Spaces (ISs) have received the attention of many Wireless Sensor Network researchers. Recently, several studies have been devoted to identify their common capacities and to set up ISs over these networks. However, little attention has been paid to integrating Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems into collaborative Wireless Sensor Networks for the purpose of implementing ISs. This work presents a distributed architecture proposal for collaborative Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems embedded in Wireless Sensor Networks, which has been designed to optimize the implementation of ISs. This architecture includes the following: (a) an optimized design for the inference engine; (b) a visual interface; (c) a module to reduce the redundancy and complexity of the knowledge bases; (d) a module to evaluate the accuracy of the new knowledge base; (e) a module to adapt the format of the rules to the structure used by the inference engine; and (f) a communications protocol. As a real-world application of this architecture and the proposed methodologies, we show an application to the problem of modeling two plagues of the olive tree: prays (olive moth, Prays oleae Bern.) and repilo (caused by the fungus Spilocaea oleagina). The results show that the architecture presented in this paper significantly decreases the consumption of resources (memory, CPU and battery) without a substantial decrease in the accuracy of the inferred values.

Representing System Behaviors and Expert Behaviors for Intelligent Tutoring. Technical Report No. 108.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Towne, Douglas M.; And Others

Simulation-based software tools that can infer system behaviors from a deep model of the system have the potential for automatically building the semantic representations required to support intelligent tutoring in fault diagnosis. The Intelligent Maintenance Training System (IMTS) is such a resource, designed for use in training troubleshooting…

High-dimensional inference with the generalized Hopfield model: principal component analysis and corrections.

PubMed

Cocco, S; Monasson, R; Sessak, V

2011-05-01

We consider the problem of inferring the interactions between a set of N binary variables from the knowledge of their frequencies and pairwise correlations. The inference framework is based on the Hopfield model, a special case of the Ising model where the interaction matrix is defined through a set of patterns in the variable space, and is of rank much smaller than N. We show that maximum likelihood inference is deeply related to principal component analysis when the amplitude of the pattern components ξ is negligible compared to √N. Using techniques from statistical mechanics, we calculate the corrections to the patterns to the first order in ξ/√N. We stress the need to generalize the Hopfield model and include both attractive and repulsive patterns in order to correctly infer networks with sparse and strong interactions. We present a simple geometrical criterion to decide how many attractive and repulsive patterns should be considered as a function of the sampling noise. We moreover discuss how many sampled configurations are required for a good inference, as a function of the system size N and of the amplitude ξ. The inference approach is illustrated on synthetic and biological data.

Developing a Dynamic Inference Expert System to Support Individual Learning at Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hung, Yu Hsin; Lin, Chun Fu; Chang, Ray I.

2015-01-01

In response to the rapid growth of information in recent decades, knowledge-based systems have become an essential tool for organizational learning. The application of electronic performance-support systems in learning activities has attracted considerable attention from researchers. Nevertheless, the vast, ever-increasing amount of information is…

Personalized recommendation via unbalance full-connectivity inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Wenping; Ren, Chen; Wu, Yue; Wang, Shanfeng; Feng, Xiang

2017-10-01

Recommender systems play an important role to help us to find useful information. They are widely used by most e-commerce web sites to push the potential items to individual user according to purchase history. Network-based recommendation algorithms are popular and effective in recommendation, which use two types of elements to represent users and items respectively. In this paper, based on consistence-based inference (CBI) algorithm, we propose a novel network-based algorithm, in which users and items are recognized with no difference. The proposed algorithm also uses information diffusion to find the relationship between users and items. Different from traditional network-based recommendation algorithms, information diffusion initializes from users and items, respectively. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm is effective compared with traditional network-based recommendation algorithms.

A Hierarchical Poisson Log-Normal Model for Network Inference from RNA Sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Gallopin, Mélina; Rau, Andrea; Jaffrézic, Florence

2013-01-01

Gene network inference from transcriptomic data is an important methodological challenge and a key aspect of systems biology. Although several methods have been proposed to infer networks from microarray data, there is a need for inference methods able to model RNA-seq data, which are count-based and highly variable. In this work we propose a hierarchical Poisson log-normal model with a Lasso penalty to infer gene networks from RNA-seq data; this model has the advantage of directly modelling discrete data and accounting for inter-sample variance larger than the sample mean. Using real microRNA-seq data from breast cancer tumors and simulations, we compare this method to a regularized Gaussian graphical model on log-transformed data, and a Poisson log-linear graphical model with a Lasso penalty on power-transformed data. For data simulated with large inter-sample dispersion, the proposed model performs better than the other methods in terms of sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve. These results show the necessity of methods specifically designed for gene network inference from RNA-seq data. PMID:24147011

Context Inference for Mobile Applications in the UPCASE Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, André C.; Tarrataca, Luís; Cardoso, João M. P.; Ferreira, Diogo R.; Diniz, Pedro C.; Chainho, Paulo

The growing processing capabilities of mobile devices coupled with portable and wearable sensors have enabled the development of context-aware services tailored to the user environment and its daily activities. The problem of determining the user context at each particular point in time is one of the main challenges in this area. In this paper, we describe the approach pursued in the UPCASE project, which makes use of sensors available in the mobile device as well as sensors externally connected via Bluetooth. We describe the system architecture from raw data acquisition to feature extraction and context inference. As a proof of concept, the inference of contexts is based on a decision tree to learn and identify contexts automatically and dynamically at runtime. Preliminary results suggest that this is a promising approach for context inference in several application scenarios.

Bayesian Inference of Natural Rankings in Incomplete Competition Networks

PubMed Central

Park, Juyong; Yook, Soon-Hyung

2014-01-01

Competition between a complex system's constituents and a corresponding reward mechanism based on it have profound influence on the functioning, stability, and evolution of the system. But determining the dominance hierarchy or ranking among the constituent parts from the strongest to the weakest – essential in determining reward and penalty – is frequently an ambiguous task due to the incomplete (partially filled) nature of competition networks. Here we introduce the “Natural Ranking,” an unambiguous ranking method applicable to a round robin tournament, and formulate an analytical model based on the Bayesian formula for inferring the expected mean and error of the natural ranking of nodes from an incomplete network. We investigate its potential and uses in resolving important issues of ranking by applying it to real-world competition networks. PMID:25163528

Bayesian Inference of Natural Rankings in Incomplete Competition Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Juyong; Yook, Soon-Hyung

2014-08-01

Competition between a complex system's constituents and a corresponding reward mechanism based on it have profound influence on the functioning, stability, and evolution of the system. But determining the dominance hierarchy or ranking among the constituent parts from the strongest to the weakest - essential in determining reward and penalty - is frequently an ambiguous task due to the incomplete (partially filled) nature of competition networks. Here we introduce the ``Natural Ranking,'' an unambiguous ranking method applicable to a round robin tournament, and formulate an analytical model based on the Bayesian formula for inferring the expected mean and error of the natural ranking of nodes from an incomplete network. We investigate its potential and uses in resolving important issues of ranking by applying it to real-world competition networks.

Algebraic Approaches for Scalable End-to-End Monitoring and Diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Yao; Chen, Yan

The rigidity of the Internet architecture led to flourish in the research of end-to-end based systems. In this chapter, we describe a linear algebra-based end-to-end monitoring and diagnosis system. We first propose a tomography-based overlay monitoring system (TOM). Given n end hosts, TOM selectively monitors a basis set of O(nlogn) paths out of all n(n - 1) end-to-end paths. Any end-to-end path can be written as a unique linear combination of paths in the basis set. Consequently, by monitoring loss rates for the paths in the basis set, TOM infers loss rates for all end-to-end paths. Furthermore, leveraging on the scalable measurements from the TOM system, we propose the Least-biased End-to-End Network Diagnosis (in short, LEND) system. We define a minimal identifiable link sequence (MILS) as a link sequence of minimal length whose properties can be uniquely identified from end-to-end measurements. LEND applies an algebraic approach to find out the MILSes and infers the properties of the MILSes efficiently. This also means LEND system achieves the finest diagnosis granularity under the least biased statistical assumptions.

An adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system controlled space cector pulse width modulation based HVDC light transmission system under AC fault conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajay Kumar, M.; Srikanth, N. V.

2014-03-01

In HVDC Light transmission systems, converter control is one of the major fields of present day research works. In this paper, fuzzy logic controller is utilized for controlling both the converters of the space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM) based HVDC Light transmission systems. Due to its complexity in the rule base formation, an intelligent controller known as adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) controller is also introduced in this paper. The proposed ANFIS controller changes the PI gains automatically for different operating conditions. A hybrid learning method which combines and exploits the best features of both the back propagation algorithm and least square estimation method is used to train the 5-layer ANFIS controller. The performance of the proposed ANFIS controller is compared and validated with the fuzzy logic controller and also with the fixed gain conventional PI controller. The simulations are carried out in the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. The results reveal that the proposed ANFIS controller is reducing power fluctuations at both the converters. It also improves the dynamic performance of the test power system effectively when tested for various ac fault conditions.

An architecture for rule based system explanation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fennel, T. R.; Johannes, James D.

1990-01-01

A system architecture is presented which incorporate both graphics and text into explanations provided by rule based expert systems. This architecture facilitates explanation of the knowledge base content, the control strategies employed by the system, and the conclusions made by the system. The suggested approach combines hypermedia and inference engine capabilities. Advantages include: closer integration of user interface, explanation system, and knowledge base; the ability to embed links to deeper knowledge underlying the compiled knowledge used in the knowledge base; and allowing for more direct control of explanation depth and duration by the user. User models are suggested to control the type, amount, and order of information presented.

Accurate HLA type inference using a weighted similarity graph.

PubMed

Xie, Minzhu; Li, Jing; Jiang, Tao

2010-12-14

The human leukocyte antigen system (HLA) contains many highly variable genes. HLA genes play an important role in the human immune system, and HLA gene matching is crucial for the success of human organ transplantations. Numerous studies have demonstrated that variation in HLA genes is associated with many autoimmune, inflammatory and infectious diseases. However, typing HLA genes by serology or PCR is time consuming and expensive, which limits large-scale studies involving HLA genes. Since it is much easier and cheaper to obtain single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype data, accurate computational algorithms to infer HLA gene types from SNP genotype data are in need. To infer HLA types from SNP genotypes, the first step is to infer SNP haplotypes from genotypes. However, for the same SNP genotype data set, the haplotype configurations inferred by different methods are usually inconsistent, and it is often difficult to decide which one is true. In this paper, we design an accurate HLA gene type inference algorithm by utilizing SNP genotype data from pedigrees, known HLA gene types of some individuals and the relationship between inferred SNP haplotypes and HLA gene types. Given a set of haplotypes inferred from the genotypes of a population consisting of many pedigrees, the algorithm first constructs a weighted similarity graph based on a new haplotype similarity measure and derives constraint edges from known HLA gene types. Based on the principle that different HLA gene alleles should have different background haplotypes, the algorithm searches for an optimal labeling of all the haplotypes with unknown HLA gene types such that the total weight among the same HLA gene types is maximized. To deal with ambiguous haplotype solutions, we use a genetic algorithm to select haplotype configurations that tend to maximize the same optimization criterion. Our experiments on a previously typed subset of the HapMap data show that the algorithm is highly accurate, achieving an accuracy of 96% for gene HLA-A, 95% for HLA-B, 97% for HLA-C, 84% for HLA-DRB1, 98% for HLA-DQA1 and 97% for HLA-DQB1 in a leave-one-out test. Our algorithm can infer HLA gene types from neighboring SNP genotype data accurately. Compared with a recent approach on the same input data, our algorithm achieved a higher accuracy. The code of our algorithm is available to the public for free upon request to the corresponding authors.

Effects of phase vector and history extension on prediction power of adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for a real scale anaerobic wastewater treatment plant operating under unsteady state.

PubMed

Perendeci, Altinay; Arslan, Sever; Tanyolaç, Abdurrahman; Celebi, Serdar S

2009-10-01

A conceptual neural fuzzy model based on adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS, was proposed using available input on-line and off-line operational variables for a sugar factory anaerobic wastewater treatment plant operating under unsteady state to estimate the effluent chemical oxygen demand, COD. The predictive power of the developed model was improved as a new approach by adding the phase vector and the recent values of COD up to 5-10 days, longer than overall retention time of wastewater in the system. History of last 10 days for COD effluent with two-valued phase vector in the input variable matrix including all parameters had more predictive power. History of 7 days with two-valued phase vector in the matrix comprised of only on-line variables yielded fairly well estimations. The developed ANFIS model with phase vector and history extension has been able to adequately represent the behavior of the treatment system.

System and method for deriving a process-based specification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinchey, Michael Gerard (Inventor); Rouff, Christopher A. (Inventor); Rash, James Larry (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A system and method for deriving a process-based specification for a system is disclosed. The process-based specification is mathematically inferred from a trace-based specification. The trace-based specification is derived from a non-empty set of traces or natural language scenarios. The process-based specification is mathematically equivalent to the trace-based specification. Code is generated, if applicable, from the process-based specification. A process, or phases of a process, using the features disclosed can be reversed and repeated to allow for an interactive development and modification of legacy systems. The process is applicable to any class of system, including, but not limited to, biological and physical systems, electrical and electro-mechanical systems in addition to software, hardware and hybrid hardware-software systems.

Inferences about landbird abundance from count data: recent advances and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Thomas, L.; Conn, P.B.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

We summarize results of a November 2006 workshop dealing with recent research on the estimation of landbird abundance from count data. Our conceptual framework includes a decomposition of the probability of detecting a bird potentially exposed to sampling efforts into four separate probabilities. Primary inference methods are described and include distance sampling, multiple observers, time of detection, and repeated counts. The detection parameters estimated by these different approaches differ, leading to different interpretations of resulting estimates of density and abundance. Simultaneous use of combinations of these different inference approaches can not only lead to increased precision but also provides the ability to decompose components of the detection process. Recent efforts to test the efficacy of these different approaches using natural systems and a new bird radio test system provide sobering conclusions about the ability of observers to detect and localize birds in auditory surveys. Recent research is reported on efforts to deal with such potential sources of error as bird misclassification, measurement error, and density gradients. Methods for inference about spatial and temporal variation in avian abundance are outlined. Discussion topics include opinions about the need to estimate detection probability when drawing inference about avian abundance, methodological recommendations based on the current state of knowledge and suggestions for future research.

An infrastructure for ontology-based information systems in biomedicine: RICORDO case study.

PubMed

Wimalaratne, Sarala M; Grenon, Pierre; Hoehndorf, Robert; Gkoutos, Georgios V; de Bono, Bernard

2012-02-01

The article presents an infrastructure for supporting the semantic interoperability of biomedical resources based on the management (storing and inference-based querying) of their ontology-based annotations. This infrastructure consists of: (i) a repository to store and query ontology-based annotations; (ii) a knowledge base server with an inference engine to support the storage of and reasoning over ontologies used in the annotation of resources; (iii) a set of applications and services allowing interaction with the integrated repository and knowledge base. The infrastructure is being prototyped and developed and evaluated by the RICORDO project in support of the knowledge management of biomedical resources, including physiology and pharmacology models and associated clinical data. The RICORDO toolkit and its source code are freely available from http://ricordo.eu/relevant-resources. sarala@ebi.ac.uk.

Goal-Directed Decision Making as Probabilistic Inference: A Computational Framework and Potential Neural Correlates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Solway, Alec; Botvinick, Matthew M.

2012-01-01

Recent work has given rise to the view that reward-based decision making is governed by two key controllers: a habit system, which stores stimulus-response associations shaped by past reward, and a goal-oriented system that selects actions based on their anticipated outcomes. The current literature provides a rich body of computational theory…

An Intelligent Information System for forest management: NED/FVS integration

Treesearch

J. Wang; W.D. Potter; D. Nute; F. Maier; H. Michael Rauscher; M.J. Twery; S. Thomasma; P. Knopp

2002-01-01

An Intelligent Information System (IIS) is viewed as composed of a unified knowledge base, database, and model base. This allows an IIS to provide responses to user queries regardless of whether the query process involves a data retrieval, an inference, a computational method, a problem solving module, or some combination of these. NED-2 is a full-featured intelligent...

A Fuzzy Logic Based Controller for the Automated Alignment of a Laser-beam-smoothing Spatial Filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krasowski, M. J.; Dickens, D. E.

1992-01-01

A fuzzy logic based controller for a laser-beam-smoothing spatial filter is described. It is demonstrated that a human operator's alignment actions can easily be described by a system of fuzzy rules of inference. The final configuration uses inexpensive, off-the-shelf hardware and allows for a compact, readily implemented embedded control system.

C Language Integrated Production System, Ada Version

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Culbert, Chris; Riley, Gary; Savely, Robert T.; Melebeck, Clovis J.; White, Wesley A.; Mcgregor, Terry L.; Ferguson, Melisa; Razavipour, Reza

1992-01-01

CLIPS/Ada provides capabilities of CLIPS v4.3 but uses Ada as source language for CLIPS executable code. Implements forward-chaining rule-based language. Program contains inference engine and language syntax providing framework for construction of expert-system program. Also includes features for debugging application program. Based on Rete algorithm which provides efficient method for performing repeated matching of patterns. Written in Ada.

Inference of the sparse kinetic Ising model using the decimation method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decelle, Aurélien; Zhang, Pan

2015-05-01

In this paper we study the inference of the kinetic Ising model on sparse graphs by the decimation method. The decimation method, which was first proposed in Decelle and Ricci-Tersenghi [Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 070603 (2014), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.112.070603] for the static inverse Ising problem, tries to recover the topology of the inferred system by setting the weakest couplings to zero iteratively. During the decimation process the likelihood function is maximized over the remaining couplings. Unlike the ℓ1-optimization-based methods, the decimation method does not use the Laplace distribution as a heuristic choice of prior to select a sparse solution. In our case, the whole process can be done auto-matically without fixing any parameters by hand. We show that in the dynamical inference problem, where the task is to reconstruct the couplings of an Ising model given the data, the decimation process can be applied naturally into a maximum-likelihood optimization algorithm, as opposed to the static case where pseudolikelihood method needs to be adopted. We also use extensive numerical studies to validate the accuracy of our methods in dynamical inference problems. Our results illustrate that, on various topologies and with different distribution of couplings, the decimation method outperforms the widely used ℓ1-optimization-based methods.

Localization of the lumbar discs using machine learning and exact probabilistic inference.

PubMed

Oktay, Ayse Betul; Akgul, Yusuf Sinan

2011-01-01

We propose a novel fully automatic approach to localize the lumbar intervertebral discs in MR images with PHOG based SVM and a probabilistic graphical model. At the local level, our method assigns a score to each pixel in target image that indicates whether it is a disc center or not. At the global level, we define a chain-like graphical model that represents the lumbar intervertebral discs and we use an exact inference algorithm to localize the discs. Our main contributions are the employment of the SVM with the PHOG based descriptor which is robust against variations of the discs and a graphical model that reflects the linear nature of the vertebral column. Our inference algorithm runs in polynomial time and produces globally optimal results. The developed system is validated on a real spine MRI dataset and the final localization results are favorable compared to the results reported in the literature.

Dynamical Bayesian inference of time-evolving interactions: From a pair of coupled oscillators to networks of oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duggento, Andrea; Stankovski, Tomislav; McClintock, Peter V. E.; Stefanovska, Aneta

2012-12-01

Living systems have time-evolving interactions that, until recently, could not be identified accurately from recorded time series in the presence of noise. Stankovski [Phys. Rev. Lett.PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.109.024101 109, 024101 (2012)] introduced a method based on dynamical Bayesian inference that facilitates the simultaneous detection of time-varying synchronization, directionality of influence, and coupling functions. It can distinguish unsynchronized dynamics from noise-induced phase slips. The method is based on phase dynamics, with Bayesian inference of the time-evolving parameters being achieved by shaping the prior densities to incorporate knowledge of previous samples. We now present the method in detail using numerically generated data, data from an analog electronic circuit, and cardiorespiratory data. We also generalize the method to encompass networks of interacting oscillators and thus demonstrate its applicability to small-scale networks.

Application of Artificial Neuro-Fuzzy Logic Inference System for Predicting the Microbiological Pollution in Fresh Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouharati, S.; Benmahammed, K.; Harzallah, D.; El-Assaf, Y. M.

The classical methods for detecting the micro biological pollution in water are based on the detection of the coliform bacteria which indicators of contamination. But to check each water supply for these contaminants would be a time-consuming job and a qualify operators. In this study, we propose a novel intelligent system which provides a detection of microbiological pollution in fresh water. The proposed system is a hierarchical integration of an Artificial Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). This method is based on the variations of the physical and chemical parameters occurred during bacteria growth. The instantaneous result obtained by the measurements of the variations of the physical and chemical parameters occurred during bacteria growth-temperature, pH, electrical potential and electrical conductivity of many varieties of water (surface water, well water, drinking water and used water) on the number Escherichia coli in water. The instantaneous result obtained by measurements of the inputs parameters of water from sensors.

A Methodology for Evaluating the Fidelity of Ground-Based Flight Simulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeyada, Y.; Hess, R. A.

1999-01-01

An analytical and experimental investigation was undertaken to model the manner in which pilots perceive and utilize visual, proprioceptive, and vestibular cues in a ground-based flight simulator. The study was part of a larger research effort which has the creation of a methodology for determining flight simulator fidelity requirements as its ultimate goal. The study utilized a closed-loop feedback structure of the pilot/simulator system which included the pilot, the cockpit inceptor, the dynamics of the simulated vehicle and the motion system. With the exception of time delays which accrued in visual scene production in the simulator, visual scene effects were not included in this study. The NASA Ames Vertical Motion Simulator was used in a simple, single-degree of freedom rotorcraft bob-up/down maneuver. Pilot/vehicle analysis and fuzzy-inference identification were employed to study the changes in fidelity which occurred as the characteristics of the motion system were varied over five configurations. The data from three of the five pilots that participated in the experimental study were analyzed in the fuzzy-inference identification. Results indicate that both the analytical pilot/vehicle analysis and the fuzzy-inference identification can be used to reflect changes in simulator fidelity for the task examined.

Analyzing spacecraft configurations through specialization and default reasoning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, Matthew R.; Lowe, Carlyle M.

1990-01-01

For an intelligent system to describe a real-world situation using as few statements as possible, it is necessary to make inferences based on observed data and to incorporate general knowledge of the reasoning domain into the description. These reasoning processes must reduce several levels of specific descriptions into only those few that most precisely describe the situation. Moreover, the system must be able to generate descriptions in the absence of data, as instructed by certain rules of inference. The deductions applied by the system, then, generate a high-level description from the low-level evidence provided by the real and default data sources. An implementation of these ideas in a real-world situation is described. The application concerns evaluation of Space Shuttle electromechanical system configurations by console operators in the Mission Control Center. A production system provides the reasoning mechanism through which the default assignments and specializations occur. Examples are provided within this domain for each type of inference, and the suitability is discussed of each toward achieving the goal of describing a situation in the fewest statements possible. Finally, several enhancements are suggested that will further increase the intelligence of similar spacecraft monitoring applications.

Multi-agent based control of large-scale complex systems employing distributed dynamic inference engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Daili

Increasing societal demand for automation has led to considerable efforts to control large-scale complex systems, especially in the area of autonomous intelligent control methods. The control system of a large-scale complex system needs to satisfy four system level requirements: robustness, flexibility, reusability, and scalability. Corresponding to the four system level requirements, there arise four major challenges. First, it is difficult to get accurate and complete information. Second, the system may be physically highly distributed. Third, the system evolves very quickly. Fourth, emergent global behaviors of the system can be caused by small disturbances at the component level. The Multi-Agent Based Control (MABC) method as an implementation of distributed intelligent control has been the focus of research since the 1970s, in an effort to solve the above-mentioned problems in controlling large-scale complex systems. However, to the author's best knowledge, all MABC systems for large-scale complex systems with significant uncertainties are problem-specific and thus difficult to extend to other domains or larger systems. This situation is partly due to the control architecture of multiple agents being determined by agent to agent coupling and interaction mechanisms. Therefore, the research objective of this dissertation is to develop a comprehensive, generalized framework for the control system design of general large-scale complex systems with significant uncertainties, with the focus on distributed control architecture design and distributed inference engine design. A Hybrid Multi-Agent Based Control (HyMABC) architecture is proposed by combining hierarchical control architecture and module control architecture with logical replication rings. First, it decomposes a complex system hierarchically; second, it combines the components in the same level as a module, and then designs common interfaces for all of the components in the same module; third, replications are made for critical agents and are organized into logical rings. This architecture maintains clear guidelines for complexity decomposition and also increases the robustness of the whole system. Multiple Sectioned Dynamic Bayesian Networks (MSDBNs) as a distributed dynamic probabilistic inference engine, can be embedded into the control architecture to handle uncertainties of general large-scale complex systems. MSDBNs decomposes a large knowledge-based system into many agents. Each agent holds its partial perspective of a large problem domain by representing its knowledge as a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). Each agent accesses local evidence from its corresponding local sensors and communicates with other agents through finite message passing. If the distributed agents can be organized into a tree structure, satisfying the running intersection property and d-sep set requirements, globally consistent inferences are achievable in a distributed way. By using different frequencies for local DBN agent belief updating and global system belief updating, it balances the communication cost with the global consistency of inferences. In this dissertation, a fully factorized Boyen-Koller (BK) approximation algorithm is used for local DBN agent belief updating, and the static Junction Forest Linkage Tree (JFLT) algorithm is used for global system belief updating. MSDBNs assume a static structure and a stable communication network for the whole system. However, for a real system, sub-Bayesian networks as nodes could be lost, and the communication network could be shut down due to partial damage in the system. Therefore, on-line and automatic MSDBNs structure formation is necessary for making robust state estimations and increasing survivability of the whole system. A Distributed Spanning Tree Optimization (DSTO) algorithm, a Distributed D-Sep Set Satisfaction (DDSSS) algorithm, and a Distributed Running Intersection Satisfaction (DRIS) algorithm are proposed in this dissertation. Combining these three distributed algorithms and a Distributed Belief Propagation (DBP) algorithm in MSDBNs makes state estimations robust to partial damage in the whole system. Combining the distributed control architecture design and the distributed inference engine design leads to a process of control system design for a general large-scale complex system. As applications of the proposed methodology, the control system design of a simplified ship chilled water system and a notional ship chilled water system have been demonstrated step by step. Simulation results not only show that the proposed methodology gives a clear guideline for control system design for general large-scale complex systems with dynamic and uncertain environment, but also indicate that the combination of MSDBNs and HyMABC can provide excellent performance for controlling general large-scale complex systems.

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, P. Ann; Harrison, Patrick R.

1993-01-01

The NASA VEGetation Workbench (VEG) is a knowledge based system that infers vegetation characteristics from reflectance data. VEG is described in detail in several references. The first generation version of VEG was extended. In the first year of this contract, an interface to a file of unknown cover type data was constructed. An interface that allowed the results of VEG to be written to a file was also implemented. A learning system that learned class descriptions from a data base of historical cover type data and then used the learned class descriptions to classify an unknown sample was built. This system had an interface that integrated it into the rest of VEG. The VEG subgoal PROPORTION.GROUND.COVER was completed and a number of additional techniques that inferred the proportion ground cover of a sample were implemented. This work was previously described. The work carried out in the second year of the contract is described. The historical cover type database was removed from VEG and stored as a series of flat files that are external to VEG. An interface to the files was provided. The framework and interface for two new VEG subgoals that estimate the atmospheric effect on reflectance data were built. A new interface that allows the scientist to add techniques to VEG without assistance from the developer was designed and implemented. A prototype Help System that allows the user to get more information about each screen in the VEG interface was also added to VEG.

Unraveling multiple changes in complex climate time series using Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berner, Nadine; Trauth, Martin H.; Holschneider, Matthias

2016-04-01

Change points in time series are perceived as heterogeneities in the statistical or dynamical characteristics of observations. Unraveling such transitions yields essential information for the understanding of the observed system. The precise detection and basic characterization of underlying changes is therefore of particular importance in environmental sciences. We present a kernel-based Bayesian inference approach to investigate direct as well as indirect climate observations for multiple generic transition events. In order to develop a diagnostic approach designed to capture a variety of natural processes, the basic statistical features of central tendency and dispersion are used to locally approximate a complex time series by a generic transition model. A Bayesian inversion approach is developed to robustly infer on the location and the generic patterns of such a transition. To systematically investigate time series for multiple changes occurring at different temporal scales, the Bayesian inversion is extended to a kernel-based inference approach. By introducing basic kernel measures, the kernel inference results are composed into a proxy probability to a posterior distribution of multiple transitions. Thus, based on a generic transition model a probability expression is derived that is capable to indicate multiple changes within a complex time series. We discuss the method's performance by investigating direct and indirect climate observations. The approach is applied to environmental time series (about 100 a), from the weather station in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and confirms documented instrumentation changes. Moreover, the approach is used to investigate a set of complex terrigenous dust records from the ODP sites 659, 721/722 and 967 interpreted as climate indicators of the African region of the Plio-Pleistocene period (about 5 Ma). The detailed inference unravels multiple transitions underlying the indirect climate observations coinciding with established global climate events.

Transcriptome inference and systems approaches to polypharmacology and drug discovery in herbal medicine.

PubMed

Li, Peng; Chen, Jianxin; Zhang, Wuxia; Fu, Bangze; Wang, Wei

2017-01-04

Herbal medicine is a concoction of numerous chemical ingredients, and it exhibits polypharmacological effects to act on multiple pharmacological targets, regulating different biological mechanisms and treating a variety of diseases. Thus, this complexity is impossible to deconvolute by the reductionist method of extracting one active ingredient acting on one biological target. To dissect the polypharmacological effects of herbal medicines and their underling pharmacological targets as well as their corresponding active ingredients. We propose a system-biology strategy that combines omics and bioinformatical methodologies for exploring the polypharmacology of herbal mixtures. The myocardial ischemia model was induced by Ameroid constriction of the left anterior descending coronary in Ba-Ma miniature pigs. RNA-seq analysis was utilized to find the differential genes induced by myocardial ischemia in pigs treated with formula QSKL. A transcriptome-based inference method was used to find the landmark drugs with similar mechanisms to QSKL. Gene-level analysis of RNA-seq data in QSKL-treated cases versus control animals yields 279 differential genes. Transcriptome-based inference methods identified 80 landmark drugs that covered nearly all drug classes. Then, based on the landmark drugs, 155 potential pharmacological targets and 57 indications were identified for QSKL. Our results demonstrate the power of a combined approach for exploring the pharmacological target and chemical space of herbal medicines. We hope that our method could enhance our understanding of the molecular mechanisms of herbal systems and further accelerate the exploration of the value of traditional herbal medicine systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Hybrid Stochastic-Neuro-Fuzzy Model-Based System for In-Flight Gas Turbine Engine Diagnostics

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-04-05

Margin (ADM) and (ii) Fault Detection Margin (FDM). Key Words: ANFIS, Engine Health Monitoring , Gas Path Analysis, and Stochastic Analysis Adaptive Network...The paper illustrates the application of a hybrid Stochastic- Fuzzy -Inference Model-Based System (StoFIS) to fault diagnostics and prognostics for both...operational history monitored on-line by the engine health management (EHM) system. To capture the complex functional relationships between different

Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinberg, Martin D.

2013-09-01

This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general parallel, optimized software package for parameter inference and model selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern astronomical surveys and the need to organize and reuse expensive derived data. The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasizes hybrid tempered Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes that robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE implements a full persistence or serialization system that stores the full byte-level image of the running inference and previously characterized posterior distributions for later use. Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation. Additional technical details and download details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU General Public License.

A Foreign Object Damage Event Detector Data Fusion System for Turbofan Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turso, James A.; Litt, Jonathan S.

2004-01-01

A Data Fusion System designed to provide a reliable assessment of the occurrence of Foreign Object Damage (FOD) in a turbofan engine is presented. The FOD-event feature level fusion scheme combines knowledge of shifts in engine gas path performance obtained using a Kalman filter, with bearing accelerometer signal features extracted via wavelet analysis, to positively identify a FOD event. A fuzzy inference system provides basic probability assignments (bpa) based on features extracted from the gas path analysis and bearing accelerometers to a fusion algorithm based on the Dempster-Shafer-Yager Theory of Evidence. Details are provided on the wavelet transforms used to extract the foreign object strike features from the noisy data and on the Kalman filter-based gas path analysis. The system is demonstrated using a turbofan engine combined-effects model (CEM), providing both gas path and rotor dynamic structural response, and is suitable for rapid-prototyping of control and diagnostic systems. The fusion of the disparate data can provide significantly more reliable detection of a FOD event than the use of either method alone. The use of fuzzy inference techniques combined with Dempster-Shafer-Yager Theory of Evidence provides a theoretical justification for drawing conclusions based on imprecise or incomplete data.

GRN2SBML: automated encoding and annotation of inferred gene regulatory networks complying with SBML.

PubMed

Vlaic, Sebastian; Hoffmann, Bianca; Kupfer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Dräger, Andreas

2013-09-01

GRN2SBML automatically encodes gene regulatory networks derived from several inference tools in systems biology markup language. Providing a graphical user interface, the networks can be annotated via the simple object access protocol (SOAP)-based application programming interface of BioMart Central Portal and minimum information required in the annotation of models registry. Additionally, we provide an R-package, which processes the output of supported inference algorithms and automatically passes all required parameters to GRN2SBML. Therefore, GRN2SBML closes a gap in the processing pipeline between the inference of gene regulatory networks and their subsequent analysis, visualization and storage. GRN2SBML is freely available under the GNU Public License version 3 and can be downloaded from http://www.hki-jena.de/index.php/0/2/490. General information on GRN2SBML, examples and tutorials are available at the tool's web page.

Comparative evaluation of reverse engineering gene regulatory networks with relevance networks, graphical gaussian models and bayesian networks.

PubMed

Werhli, Adriano V; Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

2006-10-15

An important problem in systems biology is the inference of biochemical pathways and regulatory networks from postgenomic data. Various reverse engineering methods have been proposed in the literature, and it is important to understand their relative merits and shortcomings. In the present paper, we compare the accuracy of reconstructing gene regulatory networks with three different modelling and inference paradigms: (1) Relevance networks (RNs): pairwise association scores independent of the remaining network; (2) graphical Gaussian models (GGMs): undirected graphical models with constraint-based inference, and (3) Bayesian networks (BNs): directed graphical models with score-based inference. The evaluation is carried out on the Raf pathway, a cellular signalling network describing the interaction of 11 phosphorylated proteins and phospholipids in human immune system cells. We use both laboratory data from cytometry experiments as well as data simulated from the gold-standard network. We also compare passive observations with active interventions. On Gaussian observational data, BNs and GGMs were found to outperform RNs. The difference in performance was not significant for the non-linear simulated data and the cytoflow data, though. Also, we did not observe a significant difference between BNs and GGMs on observational data in general. However, for interventional data, BNs outperform GGMs and RNs, especially when taking the edge directions rather than just the skeletons of the graphs into account. This suggests that the higher computational costs of inference with BNs over GGMs and RNs are not justified when using only passive observations, but that active interventions in the form of gene knockouts and over-expressions are required to exploit the full potential of BNs. Data, software and supplementary material are available from http://www.bioss.sari.ac.uk/staff/adriano/research.html

Prediction on carbon dioxide emissions based on fuzzy rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauzi, Herrini; Abdullah, Lazim

2014-06-01

There are several ways to predict air quality, varying from simple regression to models based on artificial intelligence. Most of the conventional methods are not sufficiently able to provide good forecasting performances due to the problems with non-linearity uncertainty and complexity of the data. Artificial intelligence techniques are successfully used in modeling air quality in order to cope with the problems. This paper describes fuzzy inference system (FIS) to predict CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Furthermore, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to compare the prediction performance. Data of five variables: energy use, gross domestic product per capita, population density, combustible renewable and waste and CO2 intensity are employed in this comparative study. The results from the two model proposed are compared and it is clearly shown that the ANFIS outperforms FIS in CO2 prediction.

Expert Systems Based Clinical Assessment and Tutorial Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Papa, Frank; Shores, Jay

This project at the Texas College of Osteopathic Medicine (Fort Worth) evaluated the use of an artificial-intelligence-derived measure, "Knowledge-Based Inference Tool" (KBIT), as the basis for assessing medical students' diagnostic capabilities and designing instruction to improve diagnostic skills. The instrument was designed to…

An historically consistent and broadly applicable MRV system based on LiDAR sampling and Landsat time-series

Treesearch

W. Cohen; H. Andersen; S. Healey; G. Moisen; T. Schroeder; C. Woodall; G. Domke; Z. Yang; S. Stehman; R. Kennedy; C. Woodcock; Z. Zhu; J. Vogelmann; D. Steinwand; C. Huang

2014-01-01

The authors are developing a REDD+ MRV system that tests different biomass estimation frameworks and components. Design-based inference from a costly fi eld plot network was compared to sampling with LiDAR strips and a smaller set of plots in combination with Landsat for disturbance monitoring. Biomass estimation uncertainties associated with these different data sets...

Fuzzy Integration of Support Vector Regression Models for Anticipatory Control of Complex Energy Systems

DOE PAGES

Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Agarwal, Vivek

2014-04-01

Anticipatory control systems are a class of systems whose decisions are based on predictions for the future state of the system under monitoring. Anticipation denotes intelligence and is an inherent property of humans that make decisions by projecting in future. Likewise, artificially intelligent systems equipped with predictive functions may be utilized for anticipating future states of complex systems, and therefore facilitate automated control decisions. Anticipatory control of complex energy systems is paramount to their normal and safe operation. In this paper a new intelligent methodology integrating fuzzy inference with support vector regression is introduced. Our proposed methodology implements an anticipatorymore » system aiming at controlling energy systems in a robust way. Initially a set of support vector regressors is adopted for making predictions over critical system parameters. Furthermore, the predicted values are fed into a two stage fuzzy inference system that makes decisions regarding the state of the energy system. The inference system integrates the individual predictions into a single one at its first stage, and outputs a decision together with a certainty factor computed at its second stage. The certainty factor is an index of the significance of the decision. The proposed anticipatory control system is tested on a real world set of data obtained from a complex energy system, describing the degradation of a turbine. Results exhibit the robustness of the proposed system in controlling complex energy systems.« less

Inference-Based Similarity Search in Randomized Montgomery Domains for Privacy-Preserving Biometric Identification.

PubMed

Wang, Yi; Wan, Jianwu; Guo, Jun; Cheung, Yiu-Ming; Yuen, Pong C; Yi Wang; Jianwu Wan; Jun Guo; Yiu-Ming Cheung; Yuen, Pong C; Cheung, Yiu-Ming; Guo, Jun; Yuen, Pong C; Wan, Jianwu; Wang, Yi

2018-07-01

Similarity search is essential to many important applications and often involves searching at scale on high-dimensional data based on their similarity to a query. In biometric applications, recent vulnerability studies have shown that adversarial machine learning can compromise biometric recognition systems by exploiting the biometric similarity information. Existing methods for biometric privacy protection are in general based on pairwise matching of secured biometric templates and have inherent limitations in search efficiency and scalability. In this paper, we propose an inference-based framework for privacy-preserving similarity search in Hamming space. Our approach builds on an obfuscated distance measure that can conceal Hamming distance in a dynamic interval. Such a mechanism enables us to systematically design statistically reliable methods for retrieving most likely candidates without knowing the exact distance values. We further propose to apply Montgomery multiplication for generating search indexes that can withstand adversarial similarity analysis, and show that information leakage in randomized Montgomery domains can be made negligibly small. Our experiments on public biometric datasets demonstrate that the inference-based approach can achieve a search accuracy close to the best performance possible with secure computation methods, but the associated cost is reduced by orders of magnitude compared to cryptographic primitives.

Using directed information for influence discovery in interconnected dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Arvind; Hero, Alfred O.; States, David J.; Engel, James Douglas

2008-08-01

Structure discovery in non-linear dynamical systems is an important and challenging problem that arises in various applications such as computational neuroscience, econometrics, and biological network discovery. Each of these systems have multiple interacting variables and the key problem is the inference of the underlying structure of the systems (which variables are connected to which others) based on the output observations (such as multiple time trajectories of the variables). Since such applications demand the inference of directed relationships among variables in these non-linear systems, current methods that have a linear assumption on structure or yield undirected variable dependencies are insufficient. Hence, in this work, we present a methodology for structure discovery using an information-theoretic metric called directed time information (DTI). Using both synthetic dynamical systems as well as true biological datasets (kidney development and T-cell data), we demonstrate the utility of DTI in such problems.

Inference of Vohradský's Models of Genetic Networks by Solving Two-Dimensional Function Optimization Problems

PubMed Central

Kimura, Shuhei; Sato, Masanao; Okada-Hatakeyama, Mariko

2013-01-01

The inference of a genetic network is a problem in which mutual interactions among genes are inferred from time-series of gene expression levels. While a number of models have been proposed to describe genetic networks, this study focuses on a mathematical model proposed by Vohradský. Because of its advantageous features, several researchers have proposed the inference methods based on Vohradský's model. When trying to analyze large-scale networks consisting of dozens of genes, however, these methods must solve high-dimensional non-linear function optimization problems. In order to resolve the difficulty of estimating the parameters of the Vohradský's model, this study proposes a new method that defines the problem as several two-dimensional function optimization problems. Through numerical experiments on artificial genetic network inference problems, we showed that, although the computation time of the proposed method is not the shortest, the method has the ability to estimate parameters of Vohradský's models more effectively with sufficiently short computation times. This study then applied the proposed method to an actual inference problem of the bacterial SOS DNA repair system, and succeeded in finding several reasonable regulations. PMID:24386175

Role of Utility and Inference in the Evolution of Functional Information

PubMed Central

Sharov, Alexei A.

2009-01-01

Functional information means an encoded network of functions in living organisms from molecular signaling pathways to an organism’s behavior. It is represented by two components: code and an interpretation system, which together form a self-sustaining semantic closure. Semantic closure allows some freedom between components because small variations of the code are still interpretable. The interpretation system consists of inference rules that control the correspondence between the code and the function (phenotype) and determines the shape of the fitness landscape. The utility factor operates at multiple time scales: short-term selection drives evolution towards higher survival and reproduction rate within a given fitness landscape, and long-term selection favors those fitness landscapes that support adaptability and lead to evolutionary expansion of certain lineages. Inference rules make short-term selection possible by shaping the fitness landscape and defining possible directions of evolution, but they are under control of the long-term selection of lineages. Communication normally occurs within a set of agents with compatible interpretation systems, which I call communication system. Functional information cannot be directly transferred between communication systems with incompatible inference rules. Each biological species is a genetic communication system that carries unique functional information together with inference rules that determine evolutionary directions and constraints. This view of the relation between utility and inference can resolve the conflict between realism/positivism and pragmatism. Realism overemphasizes the role of inference in evolution of human knowledge because it assumes that logic is embedded in reality. Pragmatism substitutes usefulness for truth and therefore ignores the advantage of inference. The proposed concept of evolutionary pragmatism rejects the idea that logic is embedded in reality; instead, inference rules are constructed within each communication system to represent reality and they evolve towards higher adaptability on a long time scale. PMID:20160960

Modelling hourly dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) using dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS)-based approach: case study of Klamath River at Miller Island Boat Ramp, OR, USA.

PubMed

Heddam, Salim

2014-01-01

In this study, we present application of an artificial intelligence (AI) technique model called dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system (DENFIS) based on an evolving clustering method (ECM), for modelling dissolved oxygen concentration in a river. To demonstrate the forecasting capability of DENFIS, a one year period from 1 January 2009 to 30 December 2009, of hourly experimental water quality data collected by the United States Geological Survey (USGS Station No: 420853121505500) station at Klamath River at Miller Island Boat Ramp, OR, USA, were used for model development. Two DENFIS-based models are presented and compared. The two DENFIS systems are: (1) offline-based system named DENFIS-OF, and (2) online-based system, named DENFIS-ON. The input variables used for the two models are water pH, temperature, specific conductance, and sensor depth. The performances of the models are evaluated using root mean square errors (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Willmott index of agreement (d) and correlation coefficient (CC) statistics. The lowest root mean square error and highest correlation coefficient values were obtained with the DENFIS-ON method. The results obtained with DENFIS models are compared with linear (multiple linear regression, MLR) and nonlinear (multi-layer perceptron neural networks, MLPNN) methods. This study demonstrates that DENFIS-ON investigated herein outperforms all the proposed techniques for DO modelling.

A prior-based integrative framework for functional transcriptional regulatory network inference

PubMed Central

Siahpirani, Alireza F.

2017-01-01

Abstract Transcriptional regulatory networks specify regulatory proteins controlling the context-specific expression levels of genes. Inference of genome-wide regulatory networks is central to understanding gene regulation, but remains an open challenge. Expression-based network inference is among the most popular methods to infer regulatory networks, however, networks inferred from such methods have low overlap with experimentally derived (e.g. ChIP-chip and transcription factor (TF) knockouts) networks. Currently we have a limited understanding of this discrepancy. To address this gap, we first develop a regulatory network inference algorithm, based on probabilistic graphical models, to integrate expression with auxiliary datasets supporting a regulatory edge. Second, we comprehensively analyze our and other state-of-the-art methods on different expression perturbation datasets. Networks inferred by integrating sequence-specific motifs with expression have substantially greater agreement with experimentally derived networks, while remaining more predictive of expression than motif-based networks. Our analysis suggests natural genetic variation as the most informative perturbation for network inference, and, identifies core TFs whose targets are predictable from expression. Multiple reasons make the identification of targets of other TFs difficult, including network architecture and insufficient variation of TF mRNA level. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our inference algorithm to infer stress-specific regulatory networks and for regulator prioritization. PMID:27794550

Multinomial Bayesian learning for modeling classical and nonclassical receptive field properties.

PubMed

Hosoya, Haruo

2012-08-01

We study the interplay of Bayesian inference and natural image learning in a hierarchical vision system, in relation to the response properties of early visual cortex. We particularly focus on a Bayesian network with multinomial variables that can represent discrete feature spaces similar to hypercolumns combining minicolumns, enforce sparsity of activation to learn efficient representations, and explain divisive normalization. We demonstrate that maximal-likelihood learning using sampling-based Bayesian inference gives rise to classical receptive field properties similar to V1 simple cells and V2 cells, while inference performed on the trained network yields nonclassical context-dependent response properties such as cross-orientation suppression and filling in. Comparison with known physiological properties reveals some qualitative and quantitative similarities.

Integrated Module and Gene-Specific Regulatory Inference Implicates Upstream Signaling Networks

PubMed Central

Roy, Sushmita; Lagree, Stephen; Hou, Zhonggang; Thomson, James A.; Stewart, Ron; Gasch, Audrey P.

2013-01-01

Regulatory networks that control gene expression are important in diverse biological contexts including stress response and development. Each gene's regulatory program is determined by module-level regulation (e.g. co-regulation via the same signaling system), as well as gene-specific determinants that can fine-tune expression. We present a novel approach, Modular regulatory network learning with per gene information (MERLIN), that infers regulatory programs for individual genes while probabilistically constraining these programs to reveal module-level organization of regulatory networks. Using edge-, regulator- and module-based comparisons of simulated networks of known ground truth, we find MERLIN reconstructs regulatory programs of individual genes as well or better than existing approaches of network reconstruction, while additionally identifying modular organization of the regulatory networks. We use MERLIN to dissect global transcriptional behavior in two biological contexts: yeast stress response and human embryonic stem cell differentiation. Regulatory modules inferred by MERLIN capture co-regulatory relationships between signaling proteins and downstream transcription factors thereby revealing the upstream signaling systems controlling transcriptional responses. The inferred networks are enriched for regulators with genetic or physical interactions, supporting the inference, and identify modules of functionally related genes bound by the same transcriptional regulators. Our method combines the strengths of per-gene and per-module methods to reveal new insights into transcriptional regulation in stress and development. PMID:24146602

Simulations inform design of regional occupancy-based monitoring for a sparsely distributed, territorial species

Treesearch

Quresh S. Latif; Martha M. Ellis; Victoria A. Saab; Kim Mellen-McLean

2017-01-01

Sparsely distributed species attract conservation concern, but insufficient information on population trends challenges conservation and funding prioritization. Occupancy-based monitoring is attractive for these species, but appropriate sampling design and inference depend on particulars of the study system. We employed spatially explicit simulations to identify...

Gas Phase Probe Molecules for Assessing In vitro Metabolism to Infer an In vivo Response

EPA Science Inventory

Efficient and accurate in vitro high-throughput screening (HTS) methods use cellular and molecular based adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) as central elements for exposure assessment and chemical prioritization. However, not all AOPs are based on human or animal systems biology, bu...

Inferring topologies via driving-based generalized synchronization of two-layer networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingfei; Wu, Xiaoqun; Feng, Hui; Lu, Jun-an; Xu, Yuhua

2016-05-01

The interaction topology among the constituents of a complex network plays a crucial role in the network’s evolutionary mechanisms and functional behaviors. However, some network topologies are usually unknown or uncertain. Meanwhile, coupling delays are ubiquitous in various man-made and natural networks. Hence, it is necessary to gain knowledge of the whole or partial topology of a complex dynamical network by taking into consideration communication delay. In this paper, topology identification of complex dynamical networks is investigated via generalized synchronization of a two-layer network. Particularly, based on the LaSalle-type invariance principle of stochastic differential delay equations, an adaptive control technique is proposed by constructing an auxiliary layer and designing proper control input and updating laws so that the unknown topology can be recovered upon successful generalized synchronization. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The technique provides a certain theoretical basis for topology inference of complex networks. In particular, when the considered network is composed of systems with high-dimension or complicated dynamics, a simpler response layer can be constructed, which is conducive to circuit design. Moreover, it is practical to take into consideration perturbations caused by control input. Finally, the method is applicable to infer topology of a subnetwork embedded within a complex system and locate hidden sources. We hope the results can provide basic insight into further research endeavors on understanding practical and economical topology inference of networks.

Higher-level fusion for military operations based on abductive inference: proof of principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantaleev, Aleksandar V.; Josephson, John

2006-04-01

The ability of contemporary military commanders to estimate and understand complicated situations already suffers from information overload, and the situation can only grow worse. We describe a prototype application that uses abductive inferencing to fuse information from multiple sensors to evaluate the evidence for higher-level hypotheses that are close to the levels of abstraction needed for decision making (approximately JDL levels 2 and 3). Abductive inference (abduction, inference to the best explanation) is a pattern of reasoning that occurs naturally in diverse settings such as medical diagnosis, criminal investigations, scientific theory formation, and military intelligence analysis. Because abduction is part of common-sense reasoning, implementations of it can produce reasoning traces that are very human understandable. Automated abductive inferencing can be deployed to augment human reasoning, taking advantage of computation to process large amounts of information, and to bypass limits to human attention and short-term memory. We illustrate the workings of the prototype system by describing an example of its use for small-unit military operations in an urban setting. Knowledge was encoded as it might be captured prior to engagement from a standard military decision making process (MDMP) and analysis of commander's priority intelligence requirements (PIR). The system is able to reasonably estimate the evidence for higher-level hypotheses based on information from multiple sensors. Its inference processes can be examined closely to verify correctness. Decision makers can override conclusions at any level and changes will propagate appropriately.

Statistical inference for noisy nonlinear ecological dynamic systems.

PubMed

Wood, Simon N

2010-08-26

Chaotic ecological dynamic systems defy conventional statistical analysis. Systems with near-chaotic dynamics are little better. Such systems are almost invariably driven by endogenous dynamic processes plus demographic and environmental process noise, and are only observable with error. Their sensitivity to history means that minute changes in the driving noise realization, or the system parameters, will cause drastic changes in the system trajectory. This sensitivity is inherited and amplified by the joint probability density of the observable data and the process noise, rendering it useless as the basis for obtaining measures of statistical fit. Because the joint density is the basis for the fit measures used by all conventional statistical methods, this is a major theoretical shortcoming. The inability to make well-founded statistical inferences about biological dynamic models in the chaotic and near-chaotic regimes, other than on an ad hoc basis, leaves dynamic theory without the methods of quantitative validation that are essential tools in the rest of biological science. Here I show that this impasse can be resolved in a simple and general manner, using a method that requires only the ability to simulate the observed data on a system from the dynamic model about which inferences are required. The raw data series are reduced to phase-insensitive summary statistics, quantifying local dynamic structure and the distribution of observations. Simulation is used to obtain the mean and the covariance matrix of the statistics, given model parameters, allowing the construction of a 'synthetic likelihood' that assesses model fit. This likelihood can be explored using a straightforward Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, but one further post-processing step returns pure likelihood-based inference. I apply the method to establish the dynamic nature of the fluctuations in Nicholson's classic blowfly experiments.

Hybrid artificial intelligence approach based on neural fuzzy inference model and metaheuristic optimization for flood susceptibilitgy modeling in a high-frequency tropical cyclone area using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tien Bui, Dieu; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Nampak, Haleh; Bui, Quang-Thanh; Tran, Quynh-An; Nguyen, Quoc-Phi

2016-09-01

This paper proposes a new artificial intelligence approach based on neural fuzzy inference system and metaheuristic optimization for flood susceptibility modeling, namely MONF. In the new approach, the neural fuzzy inference system was used to create an initial flood susceptibility model and then the model was optimized using two metaheuristic algorithms, Evolutionary Genetic and Particle Swarm Optimization. A high-frequency tropical cyclone area of the Tuong Duong district in Central Vietnam was used as a case study. First, a GIS database for the study area was constructed. The database that includes 76 historical flood inundated areas and ten flood influencing factors was used to develop and validate the proposed model. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the model performance and its prediction capability. Experimental results showed that the proposed model has high performance on both the training (RMSE = 0.306, MAE = 0.094, AUC = 0.962) and validation dataset (RMSE = 0.362, MAE = 0.130, AUC = 0.911). The usability of the proposed model was evaluated by comparing with those obtained from state-of-the art benchmark soft computing techniques such as J48 Decision Tree, Random Forest, Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System. The results show that the proposed MONF model outperforms the above benchmark models; we conclude that the MONF model is a new alternative tool that should be used in flood susceptibility mapping. The result in this study is useful for planners and decision makers for sustainable management of flood-prone areas.

A Framework for Learning Analytics Using Commodity Wearable Devices

PubMed Central

Lu, Yu; Zhang, Sen; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Xiao, Wendong; Yu, Shengquan

2017-01-01

We advocate for and introduce LEARNSense, a framework for learning analytics using commodity wearable devices to capture learner’s physical actions and accordingly infer learner context (e.g., student activities and engagement status in class). Our work is motivated by the observations that: (a) the fine-grained individual-specific learner actions are crucial to understand learners and their context information; (b) sensor data available on the latest wearable devices (e.g., wrist-worn and eye wear devices) can effectively recognize learner actions and help to infer learner context information; (c) the commodity wearable devices that are widely available on the market can provide a hassle-free and non-intrusive solution. Following the above observations and under the proposed framework, we design and implement a sensor-based learner context collector running on the wearable devices. The latest data mining and sensor data processing techniques are employed to detect different types of learner actions and context information. Furthermore, we detail all of the above efforts by offering a novel and exemplary use case: it successfully provides the accurate detection of student actions and infers the student engagement states in class. The specifically designed learner context collector has been implemented on the commodity wrist-worn device. Based on the collected and inferred learner information, the novel intervention and incentivizing feedback are introduced into the system service. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation with the real-world experiments, surveys and interviews demonstrates the effectiveness and impact of the proposed framework and this use case. The F1 score for the student action classification tasks achieve 0.9, and the system can effectively differentiate the defined three learner states. Finally, the survey results show that the learners are satisfied with the use of our system (mean score of 3.7 with a standard deviation of 0.55). PMID:28613236

A Framework for Learning Analytics Using Commodity Wearable Devices.

PubMed

Lu, Yu; Zhang, Sen; Zhang, Zhiqiang; Xiao, Wendong; Yu, Shengquan

2017-06-14

We advocate for and introduce LEARNSense, a framework for learning analytics using commodity wearable devices to capture learner's physical actions and accordingly infer learner context (e.g., student activities and engagement status in class). Our work is motivated by the observations that: (a) the fine-grained individual-specific learner actions are crucial to understand learners and their context information; (b) sensor data available on the latest wearable devices (e.g., wrist-worn and eye wear devices) can effectively recognize learner actions and help to infer learner context information; (c) the commodity wearable devices that are widely available on the market can provide a hassle-free and non-intrusive solution. Following the above observations and under the proposed framework, we design and implement a sensor-based learner context collector running on the wearable devices. The latest data mining and sensor data processing techniques are employed to detect different types of learner actions and context information. Furthermore, we detail all of the above efforts by offering a novel and exemplary use case: it successfully provides the accurate detection of student actions and infers the student engagement states in class. The specifically designed learner context collector has been implemented on the commodity wrist-worn device. Based on the collected and inferred learner information, the novel intervention and incentivizing feedback are introduced into the system service. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation with the real-world experiments, surveys and interviews demonstrates the effectiveness and impact of the proposed framework and this use case. The F1 score for the student action classification tasks achieve 0.9, and the system can effectively differentiate the defined three learner states. Finally, the survey results show that the learners are satisfied with the use of our system (mean score of 3.7 with a standard deviation of 0.55).

Software Analyzes Complex Systems in Real Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

Expert system software programs, also known as knowledge-based systems, are computer programs that emulate the knowledge and analytical skills of one or more human experts, related to a specific subject. SHINE (Spacecraft Health Inference Engine) is one such program, a software inference engine (expert system) designed by NASA for the purpose of monitoring, analyzing, and diagnosing both real-time and non-real-time systems. It was developed to meet many of the Agency s demanding and rigorous artificial intelligence goals for current and future needs. NASA developed the sophisticated and reusable software based on the experience and requirements of its Jet Propulsion Laboratory s (JPL) Artificial Intelligence Research Group in developing expert systems for space flight operations specifically, the diagnosis of spacecraft health. It was designed to be efficient enough to operate in demanding real time and in limited hardware environments, and to be utilized by non-expert systems applications written in conventional programming languages. The technology is currently used in several ongoing NASA applications, including the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Spacecraft Health Automatic Reasoning Pilot (SHARP) program for the diagnosis of telecommunication anomalies during the Neptune Voyager Encounter. It is also finding applications outside of the Space Agency.

Hierarchy-associated semantic-rule inference framework for classifying indoor scenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Dan; Liu, Peng; Ye, Zhipeng; Tang, Xianglong; Zhao, Wei

2016-03-01

Typically, the initial task of classifying indoor scenes is challenging, because the spatial layout and decoration of a scene can vary considerably. Recent efforts at classifying object relationships commonly depend on the results of scene annotation and predefined rules, making classification inflexible. Furthermore, annotation results are easily affected by external factors. Inspired by human cognition, a scene-classification framework was proposed using the empirically based annotation (EBA) and a match-over rule-based (MRB) inference system. The semantic hierarchy of images is exploited by EBA to construct rules empirically for MRB classification. The problem of scene classification is divided into low-level annotation and high-level inference from a macro perspective. Low-level annotation involves detecting the semantic hierarchy and annotating the scene with a deformable-parts model and a bag-of-visual-words model. In high-level inference, hierarchical rules are extracted to train the decision tree for classification. The categories of testing samples are generated from the parts to the whole. Compared with traditional classification strategies, the proposed semantic hierarchy and corresponding rules reduce the effect of a variable background and improve the classification performance. The proposed framework was evaluated on a popular indoor scene dataset, and the experimental results demonstrate its effectiveness.

Biological motion perception links diverse facets of theory of mind during middle childhood.

PubMed

Rice, Katherine; Anderson, Laura C; Velnoskey, Kayla; Thompson, James C; Redcay, Elizabeth

2016-06-01

Two cornerstones of social development--social perception and theory of mind--undergo brain and behavioral changes during middle childhood, but the link between these developing domains is unclear. One theoretical perspective argues that these skills represent domain-specific areas of social development, whereas other perspectives suggest that both skills may reflect a more integrated social system. Given recent evidence from adults that these superficially different domains may be related, the current study examined the developmental relation between these social processes in 52 children aged 7 to 12 years. Controlling for age and IQ, social perception (perception of biological motion in noise) was significantly correlated with two measures of theory of mind: one in which children made mental state inferences based on photographs of the eye region of the face and another in which children made mental state inferences based on stories. Social perception, however, was not correlated with children's ability to make physical inferences from stories about people. Furthermore, the mental state inference tasks were not correlated with each other, suggesting a role for social perception in linking various facets of theory of mind. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reprint of "Biological motion perception links diverse facets of theory of mind during middle childhood".

PubMed

Rice, Katherine; Anderson, Laura C; Velnoskey, Kayla; Thompson, James C; Redcay, Elizabeth

2016-09-01

Two cornerstones of social development-social perception and theory of mind-undergo brain and behavioral changes during middle childhood, but the link between these developing domains is unclear. One theoretical perspective argues that these skills represent domain-specific areas of social development, whereas other perspectives suggest that both skills may reflect a more integrated social system. Given recent evidence from adults that these superficially different domains may be related, the current study examined the developmental relation between these social processes in 52 children aged 7 to 12years. Controlling for age and IQ, social perception (perception of biological motion in noise) was significantly correlated with two measures of theory of mind: one in which children made mental state inferences based on photographs of the eye region of the face and another in which children made mental state inferences based on stories. Social perception, however, was not correlated with children's ability to make physical inferences from stories about people. Furthermore, the mental state inference tasks were not correlated with each other, suggesting a role for social perception in linking various facets of theory of mind. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mixed-initiative control of intelligent systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borchardt, G. C.

1987-01-01

Mixed-initiative user interfaces provide a means by which a human operator and an intelligent system may collectively share the task of deciding what to do next. Such interfaces are important to the effective utilization of real-time expert systems as assistants in the execution of critical tasks. Presented here is the Incremental Inference algorithm, a symbolic reasoning mechanism based on propositional logic and suited to the construction of mixed-initiative interfaces. The algorithm is similar in some respects to the Truth Maintenance System, but replaces the notion of 'justifications' with a notion of recency, allowing newer values to override older values yet permitting various interested parties to refresh these values as they become older and thus more vulnerable to change. A simple example is given of the use of the Incremental Inference algorithm plus an overview of the integration of this mechanism within the SPECTRUM expert system for geological interpretation of imaging spectrometer data.

Fusing Symbolic and Numerical Diagnostic Computations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Mark

2007-01-01

X-2000 Anomaly Detection Language denotes a developmental computing language, and the software that establishes and utilizes the language, for fusing two diagnostic computer programs, one implementing a numerical analysis method, the other implementing a symbolic analysis method into a unified event-based decision analysis software system for realtime detection of events (e.g., failures) in a spacecraft, aircraft, or other complex engineering system. The numerical analysis method is performed by beacon-based exception analysis for multi-missions (BEAMs), which has been discussed in several previous NASA Tech Briefs articles. The symbolic analysis method is, more specifically, an artificial-intelligence method of the knowledge-based, inference engine type, and its implementation is exemplified by the Spacecraft Health Inference Engine (SHINE) software. The goal in developing the capability to fuse numerical and symbolic diagnostic components is to increase the depth of analysis beyond that previously attainable, thereby increasing the degree of confidence in the computed results. In practical terms, the sought improvement is to enable detection of all or most events, with no or few false alarms.

Analogical and Category-Based Inference: A Theoretical Integration with Bayesian Causal Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holyoak, Keith J.; Lee, Hee Seung; Lu, Hongjing

2010-01-01

A fundamental issue for theories of human induction is to specify constraints on potential inferences. For inferences based on shared category membership, an analogy, and/or a relational schema, it appears that the basic goal of induction is to make accurate and goal-relevant inferences that are sensitive to uncertainty. People can use source…

Performance Optimization Control of ECH using Fuzzy Inference Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubey, Abhay Kumar

Electro-chemical honing (ECH) is a hybrid electrolytic precision micro-finishing technology that, by combining physico-chemical actions of electro-chemical machining and conventional honing processes, provides the controlled functional surfaces-generation and fast material removal capabilities in a single operation. Process multi-performance optimization has become vital for utilizing full potential of manufacturing processes to meet the challenging requirements being placed on the surface quality, size, tolerances and production rate of engineering components in this globally competitive scenario. This paper presents an strategy that integrates the Taguchi matrix experimental design, analysis of variances and fuzzy inference system (FIS) to formulate a robust practical multi-performance optimization methodology for complex manufacturing processes like ECH, which involve several control variables. Two methodologies one using a genetic algorithm tuning of FIS (GA-tuned FIS) and another using an adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) have been evaluated for a multi-performance optimization case study of ECH. The actual experimental results confirm their potential for a wide range of machining conditions employed in ECH.

An argument for mechanism-based statistical inference in cancer

PubMed Central

Ochs, Michael; Price, Nathan D.; Tomasetti, Cristian; Younes, Laurent

2015-01-01

Cancer is perhaps the prototypical systems disease, and as such has been the focus of extensive study in quantitative systems biology. However, translating these programs into personalized clinical care remains elusive and incomplete. In this perspective, we argue that realizing this agenda—in particular, predicting disease phenotypes, progression and treatment response for individuals—requires going well beyond standard computational and bioinformatics tools and algorithms. It entails designing global mathematical models over network-scale configurations of genomic states and molecular concentrations, and learning the model parameters from limited available samples of high-dimensional and integrative omics data. As such, any plausible design should accommodate: biological mechanism, necessary for both feasible learning and interpretable decision making; stochasticity, to deal with uncertainty and observed variation at many scales; and a capacity for statistical inference at the patient level. This program, which requires a close, sustained collaboration between mathematicians and biologists, is illustrated in several contexts, including learning bio-markers, metabolism, cell signaling, network inference and tumorigenesis. PMID:25381197

BiomeNet: A Bayesian Model for Inference of Metabolic Divergence among Microbial Communities

PubMed Central

Chipman, Hugh; Gu, Hong; Bielawski, Joseph P.

2014-01-01

Metagenomics yields enormous numbers of microbial sequences that can be assigned a metabolic function. Using such data to infer community-level metabolic divergence is hindered by the lack of a suitable statistical framework. Here, we describe a novel hierarchical Bayesian model, called BiomeNet (Bayesian inference of metabolic networks), for inferring differential prevalence of metabolic subnetworks among microbial communities. To infer the structure of community-level metabolic interactions, BiomeNet applies a mixed-membership modelling framework to enzyme abundance information. The basic idea is that the mixture components of the model (metabolic reactions, subnetworks, and networks) are shared across all groups (microbiome samples), but the mixture proportions vary from group to group. Through this framework, the model can capture nested structures within the data. BiomeNet is unique in modeling each metagenome sample as a mixture of complex metabolic systems (metabosystems). The metabosystems are composed of mixtures of tightly connected metabolic subnetworks. BiomeNet differs from other unsupervised methods by allowing researchers to discriminate groups of samples through the metabolic patterns it discovers in the data, and by providing a framework for interpreting them. We describe a collapsed Gibbs sampler for inference of the mixture weights under BiomeNet, and we use simulation to validate the inference algorithm. Application of BiomeNet to human gut metagenomes revealed a metabosystem with greater prevalence among inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Based on the discriminatory subnetworks for this metabosystem, we inferred that the community is likely to be closely associated with the human gut epithelium, resistant to dietary interventions, and interfere with human uptake of an antioxidant connected to IBD. Because this metabosystem has a greater capacity to exploit host-associated glycans, we speculate that IBD-associated communities might arise from opportunist growth of bacteria that can circumvent the host's nutrient-based mechanism for bacterial partner selection. PMID:25412107

Knowledge representation for fuzzy inference aided medical image interpretation.

PubMed

Gal, Norbert; Stoicu-Tivadar, Vasile

2012-01-01

Knowledge defines how an automated system transforms data into information. This paper suggests a representation method of medical imaging knowledge using fuzzy inference systems coded in XML files. The imaging knowledge incorporates features of the investigated objects in linguistic form and inference rules that can transform the linguistic data into information about a possible diagnosis. A fuzzy inference system is used to model the vagueness of the linguistic medical imaging terms. XML files are used to facilitate easy manipulation and deployment of the knowledge into the imaging software. Preliminary results are presented.

Method and system for improved resolution of a compensated calorimeter detector

DOEpatents

Dawson, John W.

1991-01-01

An improved method and system for a depleted uranium calorimeter detector used in high energy physics experiments. In a depleted uranium calorimeter detector, the energy of a particle entering the calorimeter detector is determined and the output response of the calorimeter detector is compensated so that the ratio of the integrated response of the calorimeter detector from a lepton to the integrated response of the calorimeter detector from a hadron of the same energy as the lepton is approximately equal to 1. In the present invention, the energy of a particle entering the calorimeter detector is determined as a function of time and the hadron content of the response of the calorimeter detector is inferred based upon the time structure of the energy pulse measured by the calorimeter detector. The energy measurement can be corrected based on the inference of the hadron content whereby the resolution of the calorimeter can be improved.

Training Inference Making Skills Using a Situation Model Approach Improves Reading Comprehension

PubMed Central

Bos, Lisanne T.; De Koning, Bjorn B.; Wassenburg, Stephanie I.; van der Schoot, Menno

2016-01-01

This study aimed to enhance third and fourth graders’ text comprehension at the situation model level. Therefore, we tested a reading strategy training developed to target inference making skills, which are widely considered to be pivotal to situation model construction. The training was grounded in contemporary literature on situation model-based inference making and addressed the source (text-based versus knowledge-based), type (necessary versus unnecessary for (re-)establishing coherence), and depth of an inference (making single lexical inferences versus combining multiple lexical inferences), as well as the type of searching strategy (forward versus backward). Results indicated that, compared to a control group (n = 51), children who followed the experimental training (n = 67) improved their inference making skills supportive to situation model construction. Importantly, our training also resulted in increased levels of general reading comprehension and motivation. In sum, this study showed that a ‘level of text representation’-approach can provide a useful framework to teach inference making skills to third and fourth graders. PMID:26913014

Network inference using informative priors.

PubMed

Mukherjee, Sach; Speed, Terence P

2008-09-23

Recent years have seen much interest in the study of systems characterized by multiple interacting components. A class of statistical models called graphical models, in which graphs are used to represent probabilistic relationships between variables, provides a framework for formal inference regarding such systems. In many settings, the object of inference is the network structure itself. This problem of "network inference" is well known to be a challenging one. However, in scientific settings there is very often existing information regarding network connectivity. A natural idea then is to take account of such information during inference. This article addresses the question of incorporating prior information into network inference. We focus on directed models called Bayesian networks, and use Markov chain Monte Carlo to draw samples from posterior distributions over network structures. We introduce prior distributions on graphs capable of capturing information regarding network features including edges, classes of edges, degree distributions, and sparsity. We illustrate our approach in the context of systems biology, applying our methods to network inference in cancer signaling.

Design of a Low-Cost Adaptive Question Answering System for Closed Domain Factoid Queries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Toh, Huey Ling

2010-01-01

Closed domain question answering (QA) systems achieve precision and recall at the cost of complex language processing techniques to parse the answer corpus. We propose a "query-based" model for indexing answers in a closed domain factoid QA system. Further, we use a phrase term inference method for improving the ranking order of related questions.…

Automated Discovery of Speech Act Categories in Educational Games

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rus, Vasile; Moldovan, Cristian; Niraula, Nobal; Graesser, Arthur C.

2012-01-01

In this paper we address the important task of automated discovery of speech act categories in dialogue-based, multi-party educational games. Speech acts are important in dialogue-based educational systems because they help infer the student speaker's intentions (the task of speech act classification) which in turn is crucial to providing adequate…

Towards A Self Adaptive System for Social Wellness.

PubMed

Khattak, Asad Masood; Khan, Wajahat Ali; Pervez, Zeeshan; Iqbal, Farkhund; Lee, Sungyoung

2016-04-13

Advancements in science and technology have highlighted the importance of robust healthcare services, lifestyle services and personalized recommendations. For this purpose patient daily life activity recognition, profile information, and patient personal experience are required. In this research work we focus on the improvement in general health and life status of the elderly through the use of an innovative services to align dietary intake with daily life and health activity information. Dynamic provisioning of personalized healthcare and life-care services are based on the patient daily life activities recognized using smart phone. To achieve this, an ontology-based approach is proposed, where all the daily life activities and patient profile information are modeled in ontology. Then the semantic context is exploited with an inference mechanism that enables fine-grained situation analysis for personalized service recommendations. A generic system architecture is proposed that facilitates context information storage and exchange, profile information, and the newly recognized activities. The system exploits the patient's situation using semantic inference and provides recommendations for appropriate nutrition and activity related services. The proposed system is extensively evaluated for the claims and for its dynamic nature. The experimental results are very encouraging and have shown better accuracy than the existing system. The proposed system has also performed better in terms of the system support for a dynamic knowledge-base and the personalized recommendations.

The visual system’s internal model of the world

PubMed Central

Lee, Tai Sing

2015-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm has provided a useful conceptual theory for understanding perceptual computation in the brain. While the detailed neural mechanisms of Bayesian inference are not fully understood, recent computational and neurophysiological works have illuminated the underlying computational principles and representational architecture. The fundamental insights are that the visual system is organized as a modular hierarchy to encode an internal model of the world, and that perception is realized by statistical inference based on such internal model. In this paper, I will discuss and analyze the varieties of representational schemes of these internal models and how they might be used to perform learning and inference. I will argue for a unified theoretical framework for relating the internal models to the observed neural phenomena and mechanisms in the visual cortex. PMID:26566294

Neuronal integration of dynamic sources: Bayesian learning and Bayesian inference.

PubMed

Siegelmann, Hava T; Holzman, Lars E

2010-09-01

One of the brain's most basic functions is integrating sensory data from diverse sources. This ability causes us to question whether the neural system is computationally capable of intelligently integrating data, not only when sources have known, fixed relative dependencies but also when it must determine such relative weightings based on dynamic conditions, and then use these learned weightings to accurately infer information about the world. We suggest that the brain is, in fact, fully capable of computing this parallel task in a single network and describe a neural inspired circuit with this property. Our implementation suggests the possibility that evidence learning requires a more complex organization of the network than was previously assumed, where neurons have different specialties, whose emergence brings the desired adaptivity seen in human online inference.

Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks by Singular Value Decomposition and Gravitation Field Algorithm

PubMed Central

Zheng, Ming; Wu, Jia-nan; Huang, Yan-xin; Liu, Gui-xia; Zhou, You; Zhou, Chun-guang

2012-01-01

Reconstruction of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) is of utmost interest and has become a challenge computational problem in system biology. However, every existing inference algorithm from gene expression profiles has its own advantages and disadvantages. In particular, the effectiveness and efficiency of every previous algorithm is not high enough. In this work, we proposed a novel inference algorithm from gene expression data based on differential equation model. In this algorithm, two methods were included for inferring GRNs. Before reconstructing GRNs, singular value decomposition method was used to decompose gene expression data, determine the algorithm solution space, and get all candidate solutions of GRNs. In these generated family of candidate solutions, gravitation field algorithm was modified to infer GRNs, used to optimize the criteria of differential equation model, and search the best network structure result. The proposed algorithm is validated on both the simulated scale-free network and real benchmark gene regulatory network in networks database. Both the Bayesian method and the traditional differential equation model were also used to infer GRNs, and the results were used to compare with the proposed algorithm in our work. And genetic algorithm and simulated annealing were also used to evaluate gravitation field algorithm. The cross-validation results confirmed the effectiveness of our algorithm, which outperforms significantly other previous algorithms. PMID:23226565

Inference of cancer-specific gene regulatory networks using soft computing rules.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaosheng; Gotoh, Osamu

2010-03-24

Perturbations of gene regulatory networks are essentially responsible for oncogenesis. Therefore, inferring the gene regulatory networks is a key step to overcoming cancer. In this work, we propose a method for inferring directed gene regulatory networks based on soft computing rules, which can identify important cause-effect regulatory relations of gene expression. First, we identify important genes associated with a specific cancer (colon cancer) using a supervised learning approach. Next, we reconstruct the gene regulatory networks by inferring the regulatory relations among the identified genes, and their regulated relations by other genes within the genome. We obtain two meaningful findings. One is that upregulated genes are regulated by more genes than downregulated ones, while downregulated genes regulate more genes than upregulated ones. The other one is that tumor suppressors suppress tumor activators and activate other tumor suppressors strongly, while tumor activators activate other tumor activators and suppress tumor suppressors weakly, indicating the robustness of biological systems. These findings provide valuable insights into the pathogenesis of cancer.

Evidence Accumulation and Change Rate Inference in Dynamic Environments.

PubMed

Radillo, Adrian E; Veliz-Cuba, Alan; Josić, Krešimir; Kilpatrick, Zachary P

2017-06-01

In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an ideal observer model capable of inferring the present state of the environment along with its rate of change. Key to this computation is an update of the posterior probability of all possible change point counts. This computation can be challenging, as the number of possibilities grows rapidly with time. However, we show how the computations can be simplified in the continuum limit by a moment closure approximation. The resulting low-dimensional system can be used to infer the environmental state and change rate with accuracy comparable to the ideal observer. The approximate computations can be performed by a neural network model via a rate-correlation-based plasticity rule. We thus show how optimal observers accumulate evidence in changing environments and map this computation to reduced models that perform inference using plausible neural mechanisms.

Generating Models of Infinite-State Communication Protocols Using Regular Inference with Abstraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarts, Fides; Jonsson, Bengt; Uijen, Johan

In order to facilitate model-based verification and validation, effort is underway to develop techniques for generating models of communication system components from observations of their external behavior. Most previous such work has employed regular inference techniques which generate modest-size finite-state models. They typically suppress parameters of messages, although these have a significant impact on control flow in many communication protocols. We present a framework, which adapts regular inference to include data parameters in messages and states for generating components with large or infinite message alphabets. A main idea is to adapt the framework of predicate abstraction, successfully used in formal verification. Since we are in a black-box setting, the abstraction must be supplied externally, using information about how the component manages data parameters. We have implemented our techniques by connecting the LearnLib tool for regular inference with the protocol simulator ns-2, and generated a model of the SIP component as implemented in ns-2.

Comparing Families of Dynamic Causal Models

PubMed Central

Penny, Will D.; Stephan, Klaas E.; Daunizeau, Jean; Rosa, Maria J.; Friston, Karl J.; Schofield, Thomas M.; Leff, Alex P.

2010-01-01

Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This “best model” approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data. PMID:20300649

Development and Application of a Category System to Describe Pre-Service Science Teachers' Activities in the Process of Scientific Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krell, Moritz; Walzer, Christine; Hergert, Susann; Krüger, Dirk

2017-09-01

As part of their professional competencies, science teachers need an elaborate meta-modelling knowledge as well as modelling skills in order to guide and monitor modelling practices of their students. However, qualitative studies about (pre-service) science teachers' modelling practices are rare. This study provides a category system which is suitable to analyse and to describe pre-service science teachers' modelling activities and to infer modelling strategies. The category system was developed based on theoretical considerations and was inductively refined within the methodological frame of qualitative content analysis. For the inductive refinement, modelling practices of pre-service teachers (n = 4) have been video-taped and analysed. In this study, one case was selected to demonstrate the application of the category system to infer modelling strategies. The contribution of this study for science education research and science teacher education is discussed.

Interactive information retrieval systems with minimalist representation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Domeshek, E.; Kedar, S.; Gordon, A.

Almost any information you might want is becoming available on-line. The problem is how to find what you need. One strategy to improve access to existing information sources, is intelligent information agents - an approach based on extensive representation and inference. Another alternative is to simply concentrate on better information organization and indexing. Our systems use a form of conceptual indexing sensitive to users` task-specific information needs. We aim for minimalist representation, coding only select aspects of stored items. Rather than supporting reliable automated inference, the primary purpose of our representations is to provide sufficient discrimination and guidance to amore » user for a given domain and task. This paper argues, using case studies, that minimal representations can make strong contributions to the usefulness and usability of interactive information systems, while minimizing knowledge engineering effort. We demonstrate this approach in several broad spectrum applications including video retrieval and advisory systems.« less

A Proposal to Develop Interactive Classification Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

deBessonet, Cary

1998-01-01

Research for the first year was oriented towards: 1) the design of an interactive classification tool (ICT); and 2) the development of an appropriate theory of inference for use in ICT technology. The general objective was to develop a theory of classification that could accommodate a diverse array of objects, including events and their constituent objects. Throughout this report, the term "object" is to be interpreted in a broad sense to cover any kind of object, including living beings, non-living physical things, events, even ideas and concepts. The idea was to produce a theory that could serve as the uniting fabric of a base technology capable of being implemented in a variety of automated systems. The decision was made to employ two technologies under development by the principal investigator, namely, SMS (Symbolic Manipulation System) and SL (Symbolic Language) [see debessonet, 1991, for detailed descriptions of SMS and SL]. The plan was to enhance and modify these technologies for use in an ICT environment. As a means of giving focus and direction to the proposed research, the investigators decided to design an interactive, classificatory tool for use in building accessible knowledge bases for selected domains. Accordingly, the proposed research was divisible into tasks that included: 1) the design of technology for classifying domain objects and for building knowledge bases from the results automatically; 2) the development of a scheme of inference capable of drawing upon previously processed classificatory schemes and knowledge bases; and 3) the design of a query/ search module for accessing the knowledge bases built by the inclusive system. The interactive tool for classifying domain objects was to be designed initially for textual corpora with a view to having the technology eventually be used in robots to build sentential knowledge bases that would be supported by inference engines specially designed for the natural or man-made environments in which the robots would be called upon to operate.

Prediction system of hydroponic plant growth and development using algorithm Fuzzy Mamdani method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudana, I. Made; Purnawirawan, Okta; Arief, Ulfa Mediaty

2017-03-01

Hydroponics is a method of farming without soil. One of the Hydroponic plants is Watercress (Nasturtium Officinale). The development and growth process of hydroponic Watercress was influenced by levels of nutrients, acidity and temperature. The independent variables can be used as input variable system to predict the value level of plants growth and development. The prediction system is using Fuzzy Algorithm Mamdani method. This system was built to implement the function of Fuzzy Inference System (Fuzzy Inference System/FIS) as a part of the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox (FLT) by using MATLAB R2007b. FIS is a computing system that works on the principle of fuzzy reasoning which is similar to humans' reasoning. Basically FIS consists of four units which are fuzzification unit, fuzzy logic reasoning unit, base knowledge unit and defuzzification unit. In addition to know the effect of independent variables on the plants growth and development that can be visualized with the function diagram of FIS output surface that is shaped three-dimensional, and statistical tests based on the data from the prediction system using multiple linear regression method, which includes multiple linear regression analysis, T test, F test, the coefficient of determination and donations predictor that are calculated using SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions) software applications.

Inferring unknow boundary conditions of the Greenland Ice Sheet by assimilating ICESat-1 and IceBridge altimetry intothe Ice Sheet System Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larour, E. Y.; Khazendar, A.; Seroussi, H. L.; Schlegel, N.; Csatho, B. M.; Schenk, A. F.; Rignot, E. J.; Morlighem, M.

2014-12-01

Altimetry signals from missions such as ICESat-1, CryoSat, EnviSat, as well as altimeters onboard Operation IceBridge provide vital insights into processes such as surface mass balance, mass transport and ice-flow dynamics. Historically however, ice-flow models have been focused on assimilating surface velocities from satellite-based radar observations, to infer properties such as basal friction or the position of the bedrock. Here, we leverage a new methodology based on automatic differentation of the Ice Sheet System Model to assimilate surface altimetry data into a reconstruction of the past decade of ice flow on the North Greenland area. We infer corrections to boundary conditions such as basal friction and surface mass balance, as well as corrections to the ice hardness, to best-match the observed altimetry record. We compare these corrections between glaciers such as Petermann Glacier, 79 North and Zacchariae Isstrom. The altimetry signals exhibit very different patterns between East and West, which translate into very different signatures for the inverted boundary conditions. This study gives us greater insights into what differentiates different basins, both in terms of mass transport and ice-flow dynamics, and what could bethe controlling mechanisms behind the very different evolutions of these basins.

An inference engine for embedded diagnostic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox, Barry R.; Brewster, Larry T.

1987-01-01

The implementation of an inference engine for embedded diagnostic systems is described. The system consists of two distinct parts. The first is an off-line compiler which accepts a propositional logical statement of the relationship between facts and conclusions and produces data structures required by the on-line inference engine. The second part consists of the inference engine and interface routines which accept assertions of fact and return the conclusions which necessarily follow. Given a set of assertions, it will generate exactly the conclusions which logically follow. At the same time, it will detect any inconsistencies which may propagate from an inconsistent set of assertions or a poorly formulated set of rules. The memory requirements are fixed and the worst case execution times are bounded at compile time. The data structures and inference algorithms are very simple and well understood. The data structures and algorithms are described in detail. The system has been implemented on Lisp, Pascal, and Modula-2.

Development of a coupled expert system for the spacecraft attitude control problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawamura, K.; Beale, G.; Schaffer, J.; Hsieh, B.-J.; Padalkar, S.; Rodriguezmoscoso, J.; Vinz, F.; Fernandez, K.

1987-01-01

A majority of the current expert systems focus on the symbolic-oriented logic and inference mechanisms of artificial intelligence (AI). Common rule-based systems employ empirical associations and are not well suited to deal with problems often arising in engineering. Described is a prototype expert system which combines both symbolic and numeric computing. The expert system's configuration is presented and its application to a spacecraft attitude control problem is discussed.

Phylogenic inference using alignment-free methods for applications in microbial community surveys using 16s rRNA gene

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The diversity of microbiota is best explored by understanding the phylogenetic structure of the microbial communities. Traditionally, sequence alignment has been used for phylogenetic inference. However, alignment-based approaches come with significant challenges and limitations when massive amounts of data are analyzed. In the recent decade, alignment-free approaches have enabled genome-scale phylogenetic inference. Here we evaluate three alignment-free methods: ACS, CVTree, and Kr for phylogenetic inference with 16s rRNA gene data. We use a taxonomic gold standard to compare the accuracy of alignment-free phylogenetic inference with that of common microbiome-wide phylogenetic inference pipelines based on PyNAST and MUSCLE alignments with FastTree and RAxML. We re-simulate fecal communities from Human Microbiome Project data to evaluate the performance of the methods on datasets with properties of real data. Our comparisons show that alignment-free methods are not inferior to alignment-based methods in giving accurate and robust phylogenic trees. Moreover, consensus ensembles of alignment-free phylogenies are superior to those built from alignment-based methods in their ability to highlight community differences in low power settings. In addition, the overall running times of alignment-based and alignment-free phylogenetic inference are comparable. Taken together our empirical results suggest that alignment-free methods provide a viable approach for microbiome-wide phylogenetic inference. PMID:29136663

BALANCE: Towards a Usable Pervasive Wellness Application with Accurate Activity Inference

PubMed Central

Denning, Tamara; Andrew, Adrienne; Chaudhri, Rohit; Hartung, Carl; Lester, Jonathan; Borriello, Gaetano; Duncan, Glen

2010-01-01

Technology offers the potential to objectively monitor people’s eating and activity behaviors and encourage healthier lifestyles. BALANCE is a mobile phone-based system for long term wellness management. The BALANCE system automatically detects the user’s caloric expenditure via sensor data from a Mobile Sensing Platform unit worn on the hip. Users manually enter information on foods eaten via an interface on an N95 mobile phone. Initial validation experiments measuring oxygen consumption during treadmill walking and jogging show that the system’s estimate of caloric output is within 87% of the actual value. Future work will refine and continue to evaluate the system’s efficacy and develop more robust data input and activity inference methods. PMID:20445819

ART-Ada design project, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. Daniel; Allen, Bradley P.

1990-01-01

Interest in deploying expert systems in Ada has increased. An Ada based expert system tool is described called ART-Ada, which was built to support research into the language and methodological issues of expert systems in Ada. ART-Ada allows applications of an existing expert system tool called ART-IM (Automated Reasoning Tool for Information Management) to be deployed in various Ada environments. ART-IM, a C-based expert system tool, is used to generate Ada source code which is compiled and linked with an Ada based inference engine to produce an Ada executable image. ART-Ada is being used to implement several expert systems for NASA's Space Station Freedom Program and the U.S. Air Force.

Approximate reasoning using terminological models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yen, John; Vaidya, Nitin

1992-01-01

Term Subsumption Systems (TSS) form a knowledge-representation scheme in AI that can express the defining characteristics of concepts through a formal language that has a well-defined semantics and incorporates a reasoning mechanism that can deduce whether one concept subsumes another. However, TSS's have very limited ability to deal with the issue of uncertainty in knowledge bases. The objective of this research is to address issues in combining approximate reasoning with term subsumption systems. To do this, we have extended an existing AI architecture (CLASP) that is built on the top of a term subsumption system (LOOM). First, the assertional component of LOOM has been extended for asserting and representing uncertain propositions. Second, we have extended the pattern matcher of CLASP for plausible rule-based inferences. Third, an approximate reasoning model has been added to facilitate various kinds of approximate reasoning. And finally, the issue of inconsistency in truth values due to inheritance is addressed using justification of those values. This architecture enhances the reasoning capabilities of expert systems by providing support for reasoning under uncertainty using knowledge captured in TSS. Also, as definitional knowledge is explicit and separate from heuristic knowledge for plausible inferences, the maintainability of expert systems could be improved.

Anchoring quartet-based phylogenetic distances and applications to species tree reconstruction.

PubMed

Sayyari, Erfan; Mirarab, Siavash

2016-11-11

Inferring species trees from gene trees using the coalescent-based summary methods has been the subject of much attention, yet new scalable and accurate methods are needed. We introduce DISTIQUE, a new statistically consistent summary method for inferring species trees from gene trees under the coalescent model. We generalize our results to arbitrary phylogenetic inference problems; we show that two arbitrarily chosen leaves, called anchors, can be used to estimate relative distances between all other pairs of leaves by inferring relevant quartet trees. This results in a family of distance-based tree inference methods, with running times ranging between quadratic to quartic in the number of leaves. We show in simulated studies that DISTIQUE has comparable accuracy to leading coalescent-based summary methods and reduced running times.

Testing telehealth using technology-enhanced nurse monitoring.

PubMed

Grant, Leslie A; Rockwood, Todd; Stennes, Leif

2014-10-01

Technology-enhanced nurse monitoring is a telehealth solution that helps nurses with assessment, diagnosis, and triage of older adults living in community-based settings. This technology links biometric and nonbiometric sensors to a data management system that is monitored remotely by RNs and unlicensed support staff. Nurses faced a number of challenges related to data interpretation, including making clinical inferences from nonbiometric data, integrating data generated by three different telehealth applications into a clinically meaningful cognitive framework, and figuring out how best to use nursing judgment to make valid inferences from online reporting systems. Nurses developed expertise over the course of the current study. The sponsoring organization achieved a high degree of organizational knowledge about how to use these systems more effectively. Nurses saw tremendous value in the telehealth applications. The challenges, learning curve, and organizational improvements are described. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

Multilevel Model Prediction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frees, Edward W.; Kim, Jee-Seon

2006-01-01

Multilevel models are proven tools in social research for modeling complex, hierarchical systems. In multilevel modeling, statistical inference is based largely on quantification of random variables. This paper distinguishes among three types of random variables in multilevel modeling--model disturbances, random coefficients, and future response…

Predicting Adverse Drug Effects from Literature- and Database-Mined Assertions.

PubMed

La, Mary K; Sedykh, Alexander; Fourches, Denis; Muratov, Eugene; Tropsha, Alexander

2018-06-06

Given that adverse drug effects (ADEs) have led to post-market patient harm and subsequent drug withdrawal, failure of candidate agents in the drug development process, and other negative outcomes, it is essential to attempt to forecast ADEs and other relevant drug-target-effect relationships as early as possible. Current pharmacologic data sources, providing multiple complementary perspectives on the drug-target-effect paradigm, can be integrated to facilitate the inference of relationships between these entities. This study aims to identify both existing and unknown relationships between chemicals (C), protein targets (T), and ADEs (E) based on evidence in the literature. Cheminformatics and data mining approaches were employed to integrate and analyze publicly available clinical pharmacology data and literature assertions interrelating drugs, targets, and ADEs. Based on these assertions, a C-T-E relationship knowledge base was developed. Known pairwise relationships between chemicals, targets, and ADEs were collected from several pharmacological and biomedical data sources. These relationships were curated and integrated according to Swanson's paradigm to form C-T-E triangles. Missing C-E edges were then inferred as C-E relationships. Unreported associations between drugs, targets, and ADEs were inferred, and inferences were prioritized as testable hypotheses. Several C-E inferences, including testosterone → myocardial infarction, were identified using inferences based on the literature sources published prior to confirmatory case reports. Timestamping approaches confirmed the predictive ability of this inference strategy on a larger scale. The presented workflow, based on free-access databases and an association-based inference scheme, provided novel C-E relationships that have been validated post hoc in case reports. With refinement of prioritization schemes for the generated C-E inferences, this workflow may provide an effective computational method for the early detection of potential drug candidate ADEs that can be followed by targeted experimental investigations.

[Cognitive Functions in the Prefrontal Association Cortex; Transitive Inference and the Lateral Prefrontal Cortex].

PubMed

Tanaka, Shingo; Oguchi, Mineki; Sakagami, Masamichi

2016-11-01

To behave appropriately in a complex and uncertain world, the brain makes use of several distinct learning systems. One such system is called the "model-free process", via which conditioning allows the association between a stimulus or response and a given reward to be learned. Another system is called the "model-based process". Via this process, the state transition between a stimulus and a response is learned so that the brain is able to plan actions prior to their execution. Several studies have tried to relate the difference between model-based and model-free processes to the difference in functions of the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) and the striatum. Here, we describe a series of studies that demonstrate the ability of LPFC neurons to categorize visual stimuli by their associated behavioral responses and to generate abstract information. If LPFC neurons utilize abstract code to associate a stimulus with a reward, they should be able to infer similar relationships between other stimuli of the same category and their rewards without direct experience of these stimulus-reward contingencies. We propose that this ability of LPFC neurons to utilize abstract information can contribute to the model-based learning process.

Saul: Towards Declarative Learning Based Programming

PubMed Central

Kordjamshidi, Parisa; Roth, Dan; Wu, Hao

2015-01-01

We present Saul, a new probabilistic programming language designed to address some of the shortcomings of programming languages that aim at advancing and simplifying the development of AI systems. Such languages need to interact with messy, naturally occurring data, to allow a programmer to specify what needs to be done at an appropriate level of abstraction rather than at the data level, to be developed on a solid theory that supports moving to and reasoning at this level of abstraction and, finally, to support flexible integration of these learning and inference models within an application program. Saul is an object-functional programming language written in Scala that facilitates these by (1) allowing a programmer to learn, name and manipulate named abstractions over relational data; (2) supporting seamless incorporation of trainable (probabilistic or discriminative) components into the program, and (3) providing a level of inference over trainable models to support composition and make decisions that respect domain and application constraints. Saul is developed over a declaratively defined relational data model, can use piecewise learned factor graphs with declaratively specified learning and inference objectives, and it supports inference over probabilistic models augmented with declarative knowledge-based constraints. We describe the key constructs of Saul and exemplify its use in developing applications that require relational feature engineering and structured output prediction. PMID:26635465

Saul: Towards Declarative Learning Based Programming.

PubMed

Kordjamshidi, Parisa; Roth, Dan; Wu, Hao

2015-07-01

We present Saul , a new probabilistic programming language designed to address some of the shortcomings of programming languages that aim at advancing and simplifying the development of AI systems. Such languages need to interact with messy, naturally occurring data, to allow a programmer to specify what needs to be done at an appropriate level of abstraction rather than at the data level, to be developed on a solid theory that supports moving to and reasoning at this level of abstraction and, finally, to support flexible integration of these learning and inference models within an application program. Saul is an object-functional programming language written in Scala that facilitates these by (1) allowing a programmer to learn, name and manipulate named abstractions over relational data; (2) supporting seamless incorporation of trainable (probabilistic or discriminative) components into the program, and (3) providing a level of inference over trainable models to support composition and make decisions that respect domain and application constraints. Saul is developed over a declaratively defined relational data model, can use piecewise learned factor graphs with declaratively specified learning and inference objectives, and it supports inference over probabilistic models augmented with declarative knowledge-based constraints. We describe the key constructs of Saul and exemplify its use in developing applications that require relational feature engineering and structured output prediction.

LASSIM-A network inference toolbox for genome-wide mechanistic modeling.

PubMed

Magnusson, Rasmus; Mariotti, Guido Pio; Köpsén, Mattias; Lövfors, William; Gawel, Danuta R; Jörnsten, Rebecka; Linde, Jörg; Nordling, Torbjörn E M; Nyman, Elin; Schulze, Sylvie; Nestor, Colm E; Zhang, Huan; Cedersund, Gunnar; Benson, Mikael; Tjärnberg, Andreas; Gustafsson, Mika

2017-06-01

Recent technological advancements have made time-resolved, quantitative, multi-omics data available for many model systems, which could be integrated for systems pharmacokinetic use. Here, we present large-scale simulation modeling (LASSIM), which is a novel mathematical tool for performing large-scale inference using mechanistically defined ordinary differential equations (ODE) for gene regulatory networks (GRNs). LASSIM integrates structural knowledge about regulatory interactions and non-linear equations with multiple steady state and dynamic response expression datasets. The rationale behind LASSIM is that biological GRNs can be simplified using a limited subset of core genes that are assumed to regulate all other gene transcription events in the network. The LASSIM method is implemented as a general-purpose toolbox using the PyGMO Python package to make the most of multicore computers and high performance clusters, and is available at https://gitlab.com/Gustafsson-lab/lassim. As a method, LASSIM works in two steps, where it first infers a non-linear ODE system of the pre-specified core gene expression. Second, LASSIM in parallel optimizes the parameters that model the regulation of peripheral genes by core system genes. We showed the usefulness of this method by applying LASSIM to infer a large-scale non-linear model of naïve Th2 cell differentiation, made possible by integrating Th2 specific bindings, time-series together with six public and six novel siRNA-mediated knock-down experiments. ChIP-seq showed significant overlap for all tested transcription factors. Next, we performed novel time-series measurements of total T-cells during differentiation towards Th2 and verified that our LASSIM model could monitor those data significantly better than comparable models that used the same Th2 bindings. In summary, the LASSIM toolbox opens the door to a new type of model-based data analysis that combines the strengths of reliable mechanistic models with truly systems-level data. We demonstrate the power of this approach by inferring a mechanistically motivated, genome-wide model of the Th2 transcription regulatory system, which plays an important role in several immune related diseases.

Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model

PubMed Central

Nené, Nuno R.; Dunham, Alistair S.; Illingworth, Christopher J. R.

2018-01-01

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model. PMID:29500183

Meeting the Curricular Challenges of Inclusive Assessment: The Role of Alignment, Opportunity to Learn, and Student Engagement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kurz, Alexander; Talapatra, Devadrita; Roach, Andrew T.

2012-01-01

Inclusive test-based accountability systems are intended to focus attention on the teaching and learning of important knowledge and skills for students with disabilities. Test score inferences to this end are often based on unverified assumptions of curricular alignment, access, and engagement. Focusing on students with disabilities, we discuss…

Uncertainty Reduction using Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis: A Sequential Approach to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar

2016-01-01

This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty characterization and propagation, and sensitivity analysis under the presence of aleatory and epistemic un- certainty, and develops a rigorous methodology for efficient refinement of epistemic un- certainty by identifying important epistemic variables that significantly affect the overall performance of an engineering system. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (NASA-LUQC) problem that deals with uncertainty analysis of a generic transport model (GTM). First, Bayesian inference is used to infer subsystem-level epistemic quantities using the subsystem-level model and corresponding data. Second, tools of variance-based global sensitivity analysis are used to identify four important epistemic variables (this limitation specified in the NASA-LUQC is reflective of practical engineering situations where not all epistemic variables can be refined due to time/budget constraints) that significantly affect system-level performance. The most significant contribution of this paper is the development of the sequential refine- ment methodology, where epistemic variables for refinement are not identified all-at-once. Instead, only one variable is first identified, and then, Bayesian inference and global sensi- tivity calculations are repeated to identify the next important variable. This procedure is continued until all 4 variables are identified and the refinement in the system-level perfor- mance is computed. The advantages of the proposed sequential refinement methodology over the all-at-once uncertainty refinement approach are explained, and then applied to the NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge problem.

Consumer psychology: categorization, inferences, affect, and persuasion.

PubMed

Loken, Barbara

2006-01-01

This chapter reviews research on consumer psychology with emphasis on the topics of categorization, inferences, affect, and persuasion. The chapter reviews theory-based empirical research during the period 1994-2004. Research on categorization includes empirical research on brand categories, goals as organizing frameworks and motivational bases for judgments, and self-based processing. Research on inferences includes numerous types of inferences that are cognitively and/or experienced based. Research on affect includes the effects of mood on processing and cognitive and noncognitive bases for attitudes and intentions. Research on persuasion focuses heavily on the moderating role of elaboration and dual-process models, and includes research on attitude strength responses, advertising responses, and negative versus positive evaluative dimensions.

Recent Experiments with INQUERY

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-11-01

were conducted with version of the INQUERY information retrieval system INQUERY is based on the Bayesian inference network retrieval model It is...corpus based query expansion For TREC a subset of of the adhoc document set was used to build the InFinder database None of the...experiments that showed signi cant improvements in retrieval eectiveness when document rankings based on the entire document text are combined with

Risk Mapping of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis via a Fuzzy C Means-based Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhavan, P.; Karimi, M.; Pahlavani, P.

2014-10-01

Finding pathogenic factors and how they are spread in the environment has become a global demand, recently. Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) created by Leishmania is a special parasitic disease which can be passed on to human through phlebotomus of vector-born. Studies show that economic situation, cultural issues, as well as environmental and ecological conditions can affect the prevalence of this disease. In this study, Data Mining is utilized in order to predict CL prevalence rate and obtain a risk map. This case is based on effective environmental parameters on CL and a Neuro-Fuzzy system was also used. Learning capacity of Neuro-Fuzzy systems in neural network on one hand and reasoning power of fuzzy systems on the other, make it very efficient to use. In this research, in order to predict CL prevalence rate, an adaptive Neuro-fuzzy inference system with fuzzy inference structure of fuzzy C Means clustering was applied to determine the initial membership functions. Regarding to high incidence of CL in Ilam province, counties of Ilam, Mehran, and Dehloran have been examined and evaluated. The CL prevalence rate was predicted in 2012 by providing effective environmental map and topography properties including temperature, moisture, annual, rainfall, vegetation and elevation. Results indicate that the model precision with fuzzy C Means clustering structure rises acceptable RMSE values of both training and checking data and support our analyses. Using the proposed data mining technology, the pattern of disease spatial distribution and vulnerable areas become identifiable and the map can be used by experts and decision makers of public health as a useful tool in management and optimal decision-making.

An Adaptive Handover Prediction Scheme for Seamless Mobility Based Wireless Networks

PubMed Central

Safa Sadiq, Ali; Fisal, Norsheila Binti; Ghafoor, Kayhan Zrar; Lloret, Jaime

2014-01-01

We propose an adaptive handover prediction (AHP) scheme for seamless mobility based wireless networks. That is, the AHP scheme incorporates fuzzy logic with AP prediction process in order to lend cognitive capability to handover decision making. Selection metrics, including received signal strength, mobile node relative direction towards the access points in the vicinity, and access point load, are collected and considered inputs of the fuzzy decision making system in order to select the best preferable AP around WLANs. The obtained handover decision which is based on the calculated quality cost using fuzzy inference system is also based on adaptable coefficients instead of fixed coefficients. In other words, the mean and the standard deviation of the normalized network prediction metrics of fuzzy inference system, which are collected from available WLANs are obtained adaptively. Accordingly, they are applied as statistical information to adjust or adapt the coefficients of membership functions. In addition, we propose an adjustable weight vector concept for input metrics in order to cope with the continuous, unpredictable variation in their membership degrees. Furthermore, handover decisions are performed in each MN independently after knowing RSS, direction toward APs, and AP load. Finally, performance evaluation of the proposed scheme shows its superiority compared with representatives of the prediction approaches. PMID:25574490

An adaptive handover prediction scheme for seamless mobility based wireless networks.

PubMed

Sadiq, Ali Safa; Fisal, Norsheila Binti; Ghafoor, Kayhan Zrar; Lloret, Jaime

2014-01-01

We propose an adaptive handover prediction (AHP) scheme for seamless mobility based wireless networks. That is, the AHP scheme incorporates fuzzy logic with AP prediction process in order to lend cognitive capability to handover decision making. Selection metrics, including received signal strength, mobile node relative direction towards the access points in the vicinity, and access point load, are collected and considered inputs of the fuzzy decision making system in order to select the best preferable AP around WLANs. The obtained handover decision which is based on the calculated quality cost using fuzzy inference system is also based on adaptable coefficients instead of fixed coefficients. In other words, the mean and the standard deviation of the normalized network prediction metrics of fuzzy inference system, which are collected from available WLANs are obtained adaptively. Accordingly, they are applied as statistical information to adjust or adapt the coefficients of membership functions. In addition, we propose an adjustable weight vector concept for input metrics in order to cope with the continuous, unpredictable variation in their membership degrees. Furthermore, handover decisions are performed in each MN independently after knowing RSS, direction toward APs, and AP load. Finally, performance evaluation of the proposed scheme shows its superiority compared with representatives of the prediction approaches.

Social cognitive conflict resolution: Contributions of domain general and domain specific neural systems

PubMed Central

Zaki, Jamil; Hennigan, Kelly; Weber, Jochen; Ochsner, Kevin N.

2010-01-01

Cognitive control mechanisms allow individuals to behave adaptively in the face of complex and sometimes conflicting information. While the neural bases of these control mechanisms have been examined in many contexts, almost no attention has been paid to their role in resolving conflicts between competing social cues, which is surprising, given that cognitive conflicts are part of many social interactions. Evidence about the neural processing of social information suggests that two systems—the mirror neuron system (MNS) and mental state attribution system (MSAS)—are specialized for processing nonverbal and contextual social cues, respectively. This could support a model of social cognitive conflict resolution in which competition between social cues would recruit domain-general cognitive control mechanisms, which in turn would bias processing towards the MNS or MSAS. Such biasing could also alter social behaviors, such as inferences made about the internal states of others. We tested this model by scanning participants using fMRI while they drew inferences about social targets' emotional states based on congruent or incongruent nonverbal and contextual social cues. Conflicts between social cues recruited the anterior cingulate and lateral prefrontal cortex, brain areas associated with domain-general control processes. This activation was accompanied by biasing of neural activity towards areas in the MNS or MSAS, which tracked, respectively, with perceivers' behavioral reliance on nonverbal or contextual cues when drawing inferences about targets' emotions. Together, these data provide evidence about both domain general and domain specific mechanisms involved in resolving social cognitive conflicts. PMID:20573895

Abnormal agency experiences in schizophrenia patients: Examining the role of psychotic symptoms and familial risk.

PubMed

Prikken, Merel; van der Weiden, Anouk; Renes, Robert A; Koevoets, Martijn G J C; Heering, Henriette D; Kahn, René S; Aarts, Henk; van Haren, Neeltje E M

2017-04-01

Experiencing self-agency over one's own action outcomes is essential for social functioning. Recent research revealed that patients with schizophrenia do not use implicitly available information about their action-outcomes (i.e., prime-based agency inference) to arrive at self-agency experiences. Here, we examined whether this is related to symptoms and/or familial risk to develop the disease. Fifty-four patients, 54 controls, and 19 unaffected (and unrelated) siblings performed an agency inference task, in which experienced agency was measured over action-outcomes that matched or mismatched outcome-primes that were presented before action performance. The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) and Comprehensive Assessment of Symptoms and History (CASH) were administered to assess psychopathology. Impairments in prime-based inferences did not differ between patients with symptoms of over- and underattribution. However, patients with agency underattribution symptoms reported significantly lower overall self-agency experiences. Siblings displayed stronger prime-based agency inferences than patients, but weaker prime-based inferences than healthy controls. However, these differences were not statistically significant. Findings suggest that impairments in prime-based agency inferences may be a trait characteristic of schizophrenia. Moreover, this study may stimulate further research on the familial basis and the clinical relevance of impairments in implicit agency inferences. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient probabilistic inference in generic neural networks trained with non-probabilistic feedback.

PubMed

Orhan, A Emin; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-07-26

Animals perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in a wide range of psychophysical tasks. Probabilistic inference requires trial-to-trial representation of the uncertainties associated with task variables and subsequent use of this representation. Previous work has implemented such computations using neural networks with hand-crafted and task-dependent operations. We show that generic neural networks trained with a simple error-based learning rule perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in nine common psychophysical tasks. In a probabilistic categorization task, error-based learning in a generic network simultaneously explains a monkey's learning curve and the evolution of qualitative aspects of its choice behavior. In all tasks, the number of neurons required for a given level of performance grows sublinearly with the input population size, a substantial improvement on previous implementations of probabilistic inference. The trained networks develop a novel sparsity-based probabilistic population code. Our results suggest that probabilistic inference emerges naturally in generic neural networks trained with error-based learning rules.Behavioural tasks often require probability distributions to be inferred about task specific variables. Here, the authors demonstrate that generic neural networks can be trained using a simple error-based learning rule to perform such probabilistic computations efficiently without any need for task specific operations.

"Magnitude-based inference": a statistical review.

PubMed

Welsh, Alan H; Knight, Emma J

2015-04-01

We consider "magnitude-based inference" and its interpretation by examining in detail its use in the problem of comparing two means. We extract from the spreadsheets, which are provided to users of the analysis (http://www.sportsci.org/), a precise description of how "magnitude-based inference" is implemented. We compare the implemented version of the method with general descriptions of it and interpret the method in familiar statistical terms. We show that "magnitude-based inference" is not a progressive improvement on modern statistics. The additional probabilities introduced are not directly related to the confidence interval but, rather, are interpretable either as P values for two different nonstandard tests (for different null hypotheses) or as approximate Bayesian calculations, which also lead to a type of test. We also discuss sample size calculations associated with "magnitude-based inference" and show that the substantial reduction in sample sizes claimed for the method (30% of the sample size obtained from standard frequentist calculations) is not justifiable so the sample size calculations should not be used. Rather than using "magnitude-based inference," a better solution is to be realistic about the limitations of the data and use either confidence intervals or a fully Bayesian analysis.

An engineering approach to the use of expert systems technology in avionics applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duke, E. L.; Regenie, V. A.; Brazee, M.; Brumbaugh, R. W.

1986-01-01

The concept of using a knowledge compiler to transform the knowledge base and inference mechanism of an expert system into a conventional program is presented. The need to accommodate real-time systems requirements in applications such as embedded avionics is outlined. Expert systems and a brief comparison of expert systems and conventional programs are reviewed. Avionics applications of expert systems are discussed before the discussions of applying the proposed concept to example systems using forward and backward chaining.

Network inference using informative priors

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, Sach; Speed, Terence P.

2008-01-01

Recent years have seen much interest in the study of systems characterized by multiple interacting components. A class of statistical models called graphical models, in which graphs are used to represent probabilistic relationships between variables, provides a framework for formal inference regarding such systems. In many settings, the object of inference is the network structure itself. This problem of “network inference” is well known to be a challenging one. However, in scientific settings there is very often existing information regarding network connectivity. A natural idea then is to take account of such information during inference. This article addresses the question of incorporating prior information into network inference. We focus on directed models called Bayesian networks, and use Markov chain Monte Carlo to draw samples from posterior distributions over network structures. We introduce prior distributions on graphs capable of capturing information regarding network features including edges, classes of edges, degree distributions, and sparsity. We illustrate our approach in the context of systems biology, applying our methods to network inference in cancer signaling. PMID:18799736

A new method based on fuzzy logic to evaluate the contract service provider performance.

PubMed

Miguel, C A; Barr, C; Moreno, M J L

2008-01-01

This paper puts forward a fuzzy inference system for evaluating the service quality performance of service contract providers. An application service provider (ASP) model for computerized maintenance management was used in establishing common performance indicators of the quality of service. This model was implemented in 10 separate hospitals. As a result, inference produced a service cost/acquisition cost (SC/AC) ratio reduction from 16.14% to 6.09%, an increase of 20.9% in availability, with a maintained repair quality (NRR) in the period of December 2001 to January 2003.

Neuronal couplings between retinal ganglion cells inferred by efficient inverse statistical physics methods

PubMed Central

Cocco, Simona; Leibler, Stanislas; Monasson, Rémi

2009-01-01

Complexity of neural systems often makes impracticable explicit measurements of all interactions between their constituents. Inverse statistical physics approaches, which infer effective couplings between neurons from their spiking activity, have been so far hindered by their computational complexity. Here, we present 2 complementary, computationally efficient inverse algorithms based on the Ising and “leaky integrate-and-fire” models. We apply those algorithms to reanalyze multielectrode recordings in the salamander retina in darkness and under random visual stimulus. We find strong positive couplings between nearby ganglion cells common to both stimuli, whereas long-range couplings appear under random stimulus only. The uncertainty on the inferred couplings due to limitations in the recordings (duration, small area covered on the retina) is discussed. Our methods will allow real-time evaluation of couplings for large assemblies of neurons. PMID:19666487

Impaired self-agency inferences in schizophrenia: The role of cognitive capacity and causal reasoning style.

PubMed

Prikken, M; van der Weiden, A; Kahn, R S; Aarts, H; van Haren, N E M

2018-01-01

The sense of self-agency, i.e., experiencing oneself as the cause of one's own actions, is impaired in patients with schizophrenia. Normally, inferences of self-agency are enhanced when actual outcomes match with pre-activated outcome information, where this pre-activation can result from explicitly set goals (i.e., goal-based route) or implicitly primed outcome information (i.e., prime-based route). Previous research suggests that patients show specific impairments in the prime-based route, implicating that they do not rely on matches between implicitly available outcome information and actual action-outcomes when inferring self-agency. The question remains: Why? Here, we examine whether neurocognitive functioning and self-serving bias (SSB) may explain abnormalities in patients' agency inferences. Thirty-six patients and 36 healthy controls performed a commonly used agency inference task to measure goal- and prime-based self-agency inferences. Neurocognitive functioning was assessed with the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia (BACS) and the SSB was assessed with the Internal Personal and Situational Attributions Questionnaire. Results showed a substantial smaller effect of primed outcome information on agency experiences in patients compared with healthy controls. Whereas patients and controls differed on BACS and marginally on SSB scores, these differences were not related to patients' impairments in prime-based agency inferences. Patients showed impairments in prime-based agency inferences, thereby replicating previous studies. This finding could not be explained by cognitive dysfunction or SSB. Results are discussed in the context of the recent surge to understand and examine deficits in agency experiences in schizophrenia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Before They Can Speak, They Must Know.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cromie, William J.; Edson, Lee

1984-01-01

Intelligent relationships with people are among the goals for tomorrow's computers. Knowledge-based systems used and being developed to achieve these goals are discussed. Automatic learning, producing inferences, parallelism, program languages, friendly machines, computer vision, and biomodels are among the topics considered. (JN)

Psychology of developing and designing expert systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.; MacGregor, D.

This paper discusses psychological problems relevant to developing and designing expert systems. With respect to the former, the psychological literature suggests that several cognitive biases may affect the elicitation of a valid knowledge base from the expert. The literature also suggests that common expert system inference engines may be quite inconsistent with reasoning heuristics employed by experts. With respect to expert system user interfaces, care should be taken when eliciting uncertainty estimates from users, presenting system conclusions, and ordering questions.

An Expert-System Engine With Operative Probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orlando, N. E.; Palmer, M. T.; Wallace, R. S.

1986-01-01

Program enables proof-of-concepts tests of expert systems under development. AESOP is rule-based inference engine for expert system, which makes decisions about particular situation given user-supplied hypotheses, rules, and answers to questions drawn from rules. If knowledge base containing hypotheses and rules governing environment is available to AESOP, almost any situation within that environment resolved by answering questions asked by AESOP. Questions answered with YES, NO, MAYBE, DON'T KNOW, DON'T CARE, or with probability factor ranging from 0 to 10. AESOP written in Franz LISP for interactive execution.

Statistical inference approach to structural reconstruction of complex networks from binary time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Chuang; Chen, Han-Shuang; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Zhang, Hai-Feng

2018-02-01

Complex networks hosting binary-state dynamics arise in a variety of contexts. In spite of previous works, to fully reconstruct the network structure from observed binary data remains challenging. We articulate a statistical inference based approach to this problem. In particular, exploiting the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, we develop a method to ascertain the neighbors of any node in the network based solely on binary data, thereby recovering the full topology of the network. A key ingredient of our method is the maximum-likelihood estimation of the probabilities associated with actual or nonexistent links, and we show that the EM algorithm can distinguish the two kinds of probability values without any ambiguity, insofar as the length of the available binary time series is reasonably long. Our method does not require any a priori knowledge of the detailed dynamical processes, is parameter-free, and is capable of accurate reconstruction even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the method using combinations of distinct types of binary dynamical processes and network topologies, and provide a physical understanding of the underlying reconstruction mechanism. Our statistical inference based reconstruction method contributes an additional piece to the rapidly expanding "toolbox" of data based reverse engineering of complex networked systems.

Statistical inference approach to structural reconstruction of complex networks from binary time series.

PubMed

Ma, Chuang; Chen, Han-Shuang; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Zhang, Hai-Feng

2018-02-01

Complex networks hosting binary-state dynamics arise in a variety of contexts. In spite of previous works, to fully reconstruct the network structure from observed binary data remains challenging. We articulate a statistical inference based approach to this problem. In particular, exploiting the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, we develop a method to ascertain the neighbors of any node in the network based solely on binary data, thereby recovering the full topology of the network. A key ingredient of our method is the maximum-likelihood estimation of the probabilities associated with actual or nonexistent links, and we show that the EM algorithm can distinguish the two kinds of probability values without any ambiguity, insofar as the length of the available binary time series is reasonably long. Our method does not require any a priori knowledge of the detailed dynamical processes, is parameter-free, and is capable of accurate reconstruction even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the method using combinations of distinct types of binary dynamical processes and network topologies, and provide a physical understanding of the underlying reconstruction mechanism. Our statistical inference based reconstruction method contributes an additional piece to the rapidly expanding "toolbox" of data based reverse engineering of complex networked systems.

Ensemble stacking mitigates biases in inference of synaptic connectivity.

PubMed

Chambers, Brendan; Levy, Maayan; Dechery, Joseph B; MacLean, Jason N

2018-01-01

A promising alternative to directly measuring the anatomical connections in a neuronal population is inferring the connections from the activity. We employ simulated spiking neuronal networks to compare and contrast commonly used inference methods that identify likely excitatory synaptic connections using statistical regularities in spike timing. We find that simple adjustments to standard algorithms improve inference accuracy: A signing procedure improves the power of unsigned mutual-information-based approaches and a correction that accounts for differences in mean and variance of background timing relationships, such as those expected to be induced by heterogeneous firing rates, increases the sensitivity of frequency-based methods. We also find that different inference methods reveal distinct subsets of the synaptic network and each method exhibits different biases in the accurate detection of reciprocity and local clustering. To correct for errors and biases specific to single inference algorithms, we combine methods into an ensemble. Ensemble predictions, generated as a linear combination of multiple inference algorithms, are more sensitive than the best individual measures alone, and are more faithful to ground-truth statistics of connectivity, mitigating biases specific to single inference methods. These weightings generalize across simulated datasets, emphasizing the potential for the broad utility of ensemble-based approaches.

Inferring the parameters of a Markov process from snapshots of the steady state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettmer, Simon L.; Berg, Johannes

2018-02-01

We seek to infer the parameters of an ergodic Markov process from samples taken independently from the steady state. Our focus is on non-equilibrium processes, where the steady state is not described by the Boltzmann measure, but is generally unknown and hard to compute, which prevents the application of established equilibrium inference methods. We propose a quantity we call propagator likelihood, which takes on the role of the likelihood in equilibrium processes. This propagator likelihood is based on fictitious transitions between those configurations of the system which occur in the samples. The propagator likelihood can be derived by minimising the relative entropy between the empirical distribution and a distribution generated by propagating the empirical distribution forward in time. Maximising the propagator likelihood leads to an efficient reconstruction of the parameters of the underlying model in different systems, both with discrete configurations and with continuous configurations. We apply the method to non-equilibrium models from statistical physics and theoretical biology, including the asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP), the kinetic Ising model, and replicator dynamics.

Fuzzy/Neural Software Estimates Costs of Rocket-Engine Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Freddie; Bourgeois, Edit Kaminsky

2005-01-01

The Highly Accurate Cost Estimating Model (HACEM) is a software system for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center. HACEM is built on a foundation of adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) a hybrid software concept that combines the adaptive capabilities of neural networks with the ease of development and additional benefits of fuzzy-logic-based systems. In ANFIS, fuzzy inference systems are trained by use of neural networks. HACEM includes selectable subsystems that utilize various numbers and types of inputs, various numbers of fuzzy membership functions, and various input-preprocessing techniques. The inputs to HACEM are parameters of specific tests or series of tests. These parameters include test type (component or engine test), number and duration of tests, and thrust level(s) (in the case of engine tests). The ANFIS in HACEM are trained by use of sets of these parameters, along with costs of past tests. Thereafter, the user feeds HACEM a simple input text file that contains the parameters of a planned test or series of tests, the user selects the desired HACEM subsystem, and the subsystem processes the parameters into an estimate of cost(s).

Inferring Meal Eating Activities in Real World Settings from Ambient Sounds: A Feasibility Study

PubMed Central

Thomaz, Edison; Zhang, Cheng; Essa, Irfan; Abowd, Gregory D.

2015-01-01

Dietary self-monitoring has been shown to be an effective method for weight-loss, but it remains an onerous task despite recent advances in food journaling systems. Semi-automated food journaling can reduce the effort of logging, but often requires that eating activities be detected automatically. In this work we describe results from a feasibility study conducted in-the-wild where eating activities were inferred from ambient sounds captured with a wrist-mounted device; twenty participants wore the device during one day for an average of 5 hours while performing normal everyday activities. Our system was able to identify meal eating with an F-score of 79.8% in a person-dependent evaluation, and with 86.6% accuracy in a person-independent evaluation. Our approach is intended to be practical, leveraging off-the-shelf devices with audio sensing capabilities in contrast to systems for automated dietary assessment based on specialized sensors. PMID:25859566

Analysis of Bioactive Amino Acids from Fish Hydrolysates with a New Bioinformatic Intelligent System Approach.

PubMed

Elaziz, Mohamed Abd; Hemdan, Ahmed Monem; Hassanien, AboulElla; Oliva, Diego; Xiong, Shengwu

2017-09-07

The current economics of the fish protein industry demand rapid, accurate and expressive prediction algorithms at every step of protein production especially with the challenge of global climate change. This help to predict and analyze functional and nutritional quality then consequently control food allergies in hyper allergic patients. As, it is quite expensive and time-consuming to know these concentrations by the lab experimental tests, especially to conduct large-scale projects. Therefore, this paper introduced a new intelligent algorithm using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system based on whale optimization algorithm. This algorithm is used to predict the concentration levels of bioactive amino acids in fish protein hydrolysates at different times during the year. The whale optimization algorithm is used to determine the optimal parameters in adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. The results of proposed algorithm are compared with others and it is indicated the higher performance of the proposed algorithm.

Hybrid methods for witnessing entanglement in a microscopic-macroscopic system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spagnolo, Nicolo; Consorzio Nazionale Interuniversitario per le Scienze Fisiche della Materia, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, I-00185 Roma; Vitelli, Chiara

2011-09-15

We propose a hybrid approach to the experimental assessment of the genuine quantum features of a general system consisting of microscopic and macroscopic parts. We infer entanglement by combining dichotomic measurements on a bidimensional system and phase-space inference through the Wigner distribution associated with the macroscopic component of the state. As a benchmark, we investigate the feasibility of our proposal in a bipartite-entangled state composed of a single-photon and a multiphoton field. Our analysis shows that, under ideal conditions, maximal violation of a Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt-based inequality is achievable regardless of the number of photons in the macroscopic part of the state.more » The difficulty in observing entanglement when losses and detection inefficiency are included can be overcome by using a hybrid entanglement witness that allows efficient correction for losses in the few-photon regime.« less

Integrated Approach to Reconstruction of Microbial Regulatory Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodionov, Dmitry A; Novichkov, Pavel S

2013-11-04

This project had the goal(s) of development of integrated bioinformatics platform for genome-scale inference and visualization of transcriptional regulatory networks (TRNs) in bacterial genomes. The work was done in Sanford-Burnham Medical Research Institute (SBMRI, P.I. D.A. Rodionov) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL, co-P.I. P.S. Novichkov). The developed computational resources include: (1) RegPredict web-platform for TRN inference and regulon reconstruction in microbial genomes, and (2) RegPrecise database for collection, visualization and comparative analysis of transcriptional regulons reconstructed by comparative genomics. These analytical resources were selected as key components in the DOE Systems Biology KnowledgeBase (SBKB). The high-quality data accumulated inmore » RegPrecise will provide essential datasets of reference regulons in diverse microbes to enable automatic reconstruction of draft TRNs in newly sequenced genomes. We outline our progress toward the three aims of this grant proposal, which were: Develop integrated platform for genome-scale regulon reconstruction; Infer regulatory annotations in several groups of bacteria and building of reference collections of microbial regulons; and Develop KnowledgeBase on microbial transcriptional regulation.« less

Model-based redesign of global transcription regulation

PubMed Central

Carrera, Javier; Rodrigo, Guillermo; Jaramillo, Alfonso

2009-01-01

Synthetic biology aims to the design or redesign of biological systems. In particular, one possible goal could be the rewiring of the transcription regulation network by exchanging the endogenous promoters. To achieve this objective, we have adapted current methods to the inference of a model based on ordinary differential equations that is able to predict the network response after a major change in its topology. Our procedure utilizes microarray data for training. We have experimentally validated our inferred global regulatory model in Escherichia coli by predicting transcriptomic profiles under new perturbations. We have also tested our methodology in silico by providing accurate predictions of the underlying networks from expression data generated with artificial genomes. In addition, we have shown the predictive power of our methodology by obtaining the gene profile in experimental redesigns of the E. coli genome, where rewiring the transcriptional network by means of knockouts of master regulators or by upregulating transcription factors controlled by different promoters. Our approach is compatible with most network inference methods, allowing to explore computationally future genome-wide redesign experiments in synthetic biology. PMID:19188257

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data.

PubMed

Guo, Xuan; Liu, Bing; Chen, Le; Chen, Guantao; Pan, Yi; Zhang, Jing

2016-01-01

This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM), Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM), and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM), and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Deriving Animal Behaviour from High-Frequency GPS: Tracking Cows in Open and Forested Habitat

PubMed Central

de Weerd, Nelleke; van Langevelde, Frank; van Oeveren, Herman; Nolet, Bart A.; Kölzsch, Andrea; Prins, Herbert H. T.; de Boer, W. Fred

2015-01-01

The increasing spatiotemporal accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) tracking systems opens the possibility to infer animal behaviour from tracking data. We studied the relationship between high-frequency GNSS data and behaviour, aimed at developing an easily interpretable classification method to infer behaviour from location data. Behavioural observations were carried out during tracking of cows (Bos Taurus) fitted with high-frequency GPS (Global Positioning System) receivers. Data were obtained in an open field and forested area, and movement metrics were calculated for 1 min, 12 s and 2 s intervals. We observed four behaviour types (Foraging, Lying, Standing and Walking). We subsequently used Classification and Regression Trees to classify the simultaneously obtained GPS data as these behaviour types, based on distances and turning angles between fixes. GPS data with a 1 min interval from the open field was classified correctly for more than 70% of the samples. Data from the 12 s and 2 s interval could not be classified successfully, emphasizing that the interval should be long enough for the behaviour to be defined by its characteristic movement metrics. Data obtained in the forested area were classified with a lower accuracy (57%) than the data from the open field, due to a larger positional error of GPS locations and differences in behavioural performance influenced by the habitat type. This demonstrates the importance of understanding the relationship between behaviour and movement metrics, derived from GNSS fixes at different frequencies and in different habitats, in order to successfully infer behaviour. When spatially accurate location data can be obtained, behaviour can be inferred from high-frequency GNSS fixes by calculating simple movement metrics and using easily interpretable decision trees. This allows for the combined study of animal behaviour and habitat use based on location data, and might make it possible to detect deviations in behaviour at the individual level. PMID:26107643

Deriving Animal Behaviour from High-Frequency GPS: Tracking Cows in Open and Forested Habitat.

PubMed

de Weerd, Nelleke; van Langevelde, Frank; van Oeveren, Herman; Nolet, Bart A; Kölzsch, Andrea; Prins, Herbert H T; de Boer, W Fred

2015-01-01

The increasing spatiotemporal accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) tracking systems opens the possibility to infer animal behaviour from tracking data. We studied the relationship between high-frequency GNSS data and behaviour, aimed at developing an easily interpretable classification method to infer behaviour from location data. Behavioural observations were carried out during tracking of cows (Bos Taurus) fitted with high-frequency GPS (Global Positioning System) receivers. Data were obtained in an open field and forested area, and movement metrics were calculated for 1 min, 12 s and 2 s intervals. We observed four behaviour types (Foraging, Lying, Standing and Walking). We subsequently used Classification and Regression Trees to classify the simultaneously obtained GPS data as these behaviour types, based on distances and turning angles between fixes. GPS data with a 1 min interval from the open field was classified correctly for more than 70% of the samples. Data from the 12 s and 2 s interval could not be classified successfully, emphasizing that the interval should be long enough for the behaviour to be defined by its characteristic movement metrics. Data obtained in the forested area were classified with a lower accuracy (57%) than the data from the open field, due to a larger positional error of GPS locations and differences in behavioural performance influenced by the habitat type. This demonstrates the importance of understanding the relationship between behaviour and movement metrics, derived from GNSS fixes at different frequencies and in different habitats, in order to successfully infer behaviour. When spatially accurate location data can be obtained, behaviour can be inferred from high-frequency GNSS fixes by calculating simple movement metrics and using easily interpretable decision trees. This allows for the combined study of animal behaviour and habitat use based on location data, and might make it possible to detect deviations in behaviour at the individual level.

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics: Atmospheric techniques (Task G)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, P. Ann; Harrison, Patrick R.

1993-01-01

The NASA VEGetation Workbench (VEG) is a knowledge based system that infers vegetation characteristics from reflectance data. The VEG Subgoals have been reorganized into categories. A new subgoal category 'Atmospheric Techniques' containing two new subgoals has been implemented. The subgoal Atmospheric Passes allows the scientist to take reflectance data measured at ground level and predict what the reflectance values would be if the data were measured at a different atmospheric height. The subgoal Atmospheric Corrections allows atmospheric corrections to be made to data collected from an aircraft or by a satellite to determine what the equivalent reflectance values would be if the data were measured at ground level. The report describes the implementation and testing of the basic framework and interface for the Atmospheric Techniques Subgoals.

A Novel Technique for Maximum Power Point Tracking of a Photovoltaic Based on Sensing of Array Current Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Zoghby, Helmy M.; Bendary, Ahmed F.

2016-10-01

Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) is now widely used method in increasing the photovoltaic (PV) efficiency. The conventional MPPT methods have many problems concerning the accuracy, flexibility and efficiency. The MPP depends on the PV temperature and solar irradiation that randomly varied. In this paper an artificial intelligence based controller is presented through implementing of an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to obtain maximum power from PV. The ANFIS inputs are the temperature and cell current, and the output is optimal voltage at maximum power. During operation the trained ANFIS senses the PV current using suitable sensor and also senses the temperature to determine the optimal operating voltage that corresponds to the current at MPP. This voltage is used to control the boost converter duty cycle. The MATLAB simulation results shows the effectiveness of the ANFIS with sensing the PV current in obtaining the MPPT from the PV.

STRUTEX: A prototype knowledge-based system for initially configuring a structure to support point loads in two dimensions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, James L.; Feyock, Stefan; Sobieszczanski-Sobieski, Jaroslaw

1988-01-01

The purpose of this research effort is to investigate the benefits that might be derived from applying artificial intelligence tools in the area of conceptual design. Therefore, the emphasis is on the artificial intelligence aspects of conceptual design rather than structural and optimization aspects. A prototype knowledge-based system, called STRUTEX, was developed to initially configure a structure to support point loads in two dimensions. This system combines numerical and symbolic processing by the computer with interactive problem solving aided by the vision of the user by integrating a knowledge base interface and inference engine, a data base interface, and graphics while keeping the knowledge base and data base files separate. The system writes a file which can be input into a structural synthesis system, which combines structural analysis and optimization.

An intelligent knowledge-based and customizable home care system framework with ubiquitous patient monitoring and alerting techniques.

PubMed

Chen, Yen-Lin; Chiang, Hsin-Han; Yu, Chao-Wei; Chiang, Chuan-Yen; Liu, Chuan-Ming; Wang, Jenq-Haur

2012-01-01

This study develops and integrates an efficient knowledge-based system and a component-based framework to design an intelligent and flexible home health care system. The proposed knowledge-based system integrates an efficient rule-based reasoning model and flexible knowledge rules for determining efficiently and rapidly the necessary physiological and medication treatment procedures based on software modules, video camera sensors, communication devices, and physiological sensor information. This knowledge-based system offers high flexibility for improving and extending the system further to meet the monitoring demands of new patient and caregiver health care by updating the knowledge rules in the inference mechanism. All of the proposed functional components in this study are reusable, configurable, and extensible for system developers. Based on the experimental results, the proposed intelligent homecare system demonstrates that it can accomplish the extensible, customizable, and configurable demands of the ubiquitous healthcare systems to meet the different demands of patients and caregivers under various rehabilitation and nursing conditions.

An Intelligent Knowledge-Based and Customizable Home Care System Framework with Ubiquitous Patient Monitoring and Alerting Techniques

PubMed Central

Chen, Yen-Lin; Chiang, Hsin-Han; Yu, Chao-Wei; Chiang, Chuan-Yen; Liu, Chuan-Ming; Wang, Jenq-Haur

2012-01-01

This study develops and integrates an efficient knowledge-based system and a component-based framework to design an intelligent and flexible home health care system. The proposed knowledge-based system integrates an efficient rule-based reasoning model and flexible knowledge rules for determining efficiently and rapidly the necessary physiological and medication treatment procedures based on software modules, video camera sensors, communication devices, and physiological sensor information. This knowledge-based system offers high flexibility for improving and extending the system further to meet the monitoring demands of new patient and caregiver health care by updating the knowledge rules in the inference mechanism. All of the proposed functional components in this study are reusable, configurable, and extensible for system developers. Based on the experimental results, the proposed intelligent homecare system demonstrates that it can accomplish the extensible, customizable, and configurable demands of the ubiquitous healthcare systems to meet the different demands of patients and caregivers under various rehabilitation and nursing conditions. PMID:23112650

Inferring Fitness Effects from Time-Resolved Sequence Data with a Delay-Deterministic Model.

PubMed

Nené, Nuno R; Dunham, Alistair S; Illingworth, Christopher J R

2018-05-01

A common challenge arising from the observation of an evolutionary system over time is to infer the magnitude of selection acting upon a specific genetic variant, or variants, within the population. The inference of selection may be confounded by the effects of genetic drift in a system, leading to the development of inference procedures to account for these effects. However, recent work has suggested that deterministic models of evolution may be effective in capturing the effects of selection even under complex models of demography, suggesting the more general application of deterministic approaches to inference. Responding to this literature, we here note a case in which a deterministic model of evolution may give highly misleading inferences, resulting from the nondeterministic properties of mutation in a finite population. We propose an alternative approach that acts to correct for this error, and which we denote the delay-deterministic model. Applying our model to a simple evolutionary system, we demonstrate its performance in quantifying the extent of selection acting within that system. We further consider the application of our model to sequence data from an evolutionary experiment. We outline scenarios in which our model may produce improved results for the inference of selection, noting that such situations can be easily identified via the use of a regular deterministic model. Copyright © 2018 Nené et al.

New agrophysics divisions: application of ANFIS, fuzzy indicator modeling, physic-technical bases of plant breeding, and materials based on humic acids (review)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This work is devoted to review the new scientific divisions that emerged in agrophysics in the last 10-15 years. Among them are the following: 1) application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), 2) development and application of fuzzy indicator modeling, 3) agrophysical and physic-tech...

Evaluation of a new neutron energy spectrum unfolding code based on an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS).

PubMed

Hosseini, Seyed Abolfazl; Esmaili Paeen Afrakoti, Iman

2018-01-17

The purpose of the present study was to reconstruct the energy spectrum of a poly-energetic neutron source using an algorithm developed based on an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). ANFIS is a kind of artificial neural network based on the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy inference system. The ANFIS algorithm uses the advantages of both fuzzy inference systems and artificial neural networks to improve the effectiveness of algorithms in various applications such as modeling, control and classification. The neutron pulse height distributions used as input data in the training procedure for the ANFIS algorithm were obtained from the simulations performed by MCNPX-ESUT computational code (MCNPX-Energy engineering of Sharif University of Technology). Taking into account the normalization condition of each energy spectrum, 4300 neutron energy spectra were generated randomly. (The value in each bin was generated randomly, and finally a normalization of each generated energy spectrum was performed). The randomly generated neutron energy spectra were considered as output data of the developed ANFIS computational code in the training step. To calculate the neutron energy spectrum using conventional methods, an inverse problem with an approximately singular response matrix (with the determinant of the matrix close to zero) should be solved. The solution of the inverse problem using the conventional methods unfold neutron energy spectrum with low accuracy. Application of the iterative algorithms in the solution of such a problem, or utilizing the intelligent algorithms (in which there is no need to solve the problem), is usually preferred for unfolding of the energy spectrum. Therefore, the main reason for development of intelligent algorithms like ANFIS for unfolding of neutron energy spectra is to avoid solving the inverse problem. In the present study, the unfolded neutron energy spectra of 252Cf and 241Am-9Be neutron sources using the developed computational code were found to have excellent agreement with the reference data. Also, the unfolded energy spectra of the neutron sources as obtained using ANFIS were more accurate than the results reported from calculations performed using artificial neural networks in previously published papers. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

Action understanding as inverse planning.

PubMed

Baker, Chris L; Saxe, Rebecca; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2009-12-01

Humans are adept at inferring the mental states underlying other agents' actions, such as goals, beliefs, desires, emotions and other thoughts. We propose a computational framework based on Bayesian inverse planning for modeling human action understanding. The framework represents an intuitive theory of intentional agents' behavior based on the principle of rationality: the expectation that agents will plan approximately rationally to achieve their goals, given their beliefs about the world. The mental states that caused an agent's behavior are inferred by inverting this model of rational planning using Bayesian inference, integrating the likelihood of the observed actions with the prior over mental states. This approach formalizes in precise probabilistic terms the essence of previous qualitative approaches to action understanding based on an "intentional stance" [Dennett, D. C. (1987). The intentional stance. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press] or a "teleological stance" [Gergely, G., Nádasdy, Z., Csibra, G., & Biró, S. (1995). Taking the intentional stance at 12 months of age. Cognition, 56, 165-193]. In three psychophysical experiments using animated stimuli of agents moving in simple mazes, we assess how well different inverse planning models based on different goal priors can predict human goal inferences. The results provide quantitative evidence for an approximately rational inference mechanism in human goal inference within our simplified stimulus paradigm, and for the flexible nature of goal representations that human observers can adopt. We discuss the implications of our experimental results for human action understanding in real-world contexts, and suggest how our framework might be extended to capture other kinds of mental state inferences, such as inferences about beliefs, or inferring whether an entity is an intentional agent.

Information verification and encryption based on phase retrieval with sparsity constraints and optical inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Shenlu; Li, Mengjiao; Tang, Xiajie; He, Weiqing; Wang, Xiaogang

2017-01-01

A novel optical information verification and encryption method is proposed based on inference principle and phase retrieval with sparsity constraints. In this method, a target image is encrypted into two phase-only masks (POMs), which comprise sparse phase data used for verification. Both of the two POMs need to be authenticated before being applied for decrypting. The target image can be optically reconstructed when the two authenticated POMs are Fourier transformed and convolved by the correct decryption key, which is also generated in encryption process. No holographic scheme is involved in the proposed optical verification and encryption system and there is also no problem of information disclosure in the two authenticable POMs. Numerical simulation results demonstrate the validity and good performance of this new proposed method.

A Modular Artificial Intelligence Inference Engine System (MAIS) for support of on orbit experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hancock, Thomas M., III

1994-01-01

This paper describes a Modular Artificial Intelligence Inference Engine System (MAIS) support tool that would provide health and status monitoring, cognitive replanning, analysis and support of on-orbit Space Station, Spacelab experiments and systems.

Robust Strategy for Rocket Engine Health Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santi, L. Michael

2001-01-01

Monitoring the health of rocket engine systems is essentially a two-phase process. The acquisition phase involves sensing physical conditions at selected locations, converting physical inputs to electrical signals, conditioning the signals as appropriate to establish scale or filter interference, and recording results in a form that is easy to interpret. The inference phase involves analysis of results from the acquisition phase, comparison of analysis results to established health measures, and assessment of health indications. A variety of analytical tools may be employed in the inference phase of health monitoring. These tools can be separated into three broad categories: statistical, rule based, and model based. Statistical methods can provide excellent comparative measures of engine operating health. They require well-characterized data from an ensemble of "typical" engines, or "golden" data from a specific test assumed to define the operating norm in order to establish reliable comparative measures. Statistical methods are generally suitable for real-time health monitoring because they do not deal with the physical complexities of engine operation. The utility of statistical methods in rocket engine health monitoring is hindered by practical limits on the quantity and quality of available data. This is due to the difficulty and high cost of data acquisition, the limited number of available test engines, and the problem of simulating flight conditions in ground test facilities. In addition, statistical methods incur a penalty for disregarding flow complexity and are therefore limited in their ability to define performance shift causality. Rule based methods infer the health state of the engine system based on comparison of individual measurements or combinations of measurements with defined health norms or rules. This does not mean that rule based methods are necessarily simple. Although binary yes-no health assessment can sometimes be established by relatively simple rules, the causality assignment needed for refined health monitoring often requires an exceptionally complex rule base involving complicated logical maps. Structuring the rule system to be clear and unambiguous can be difficult, and the expert input required to maintain a large logic network and associated rule base can be prohibitive.

Differentiable cortical networks for inferences concerning people’s intentions versus physical causality

PubMed Central

Mason, Robert A.; Just, Marcel Adam

2010-01-01

Cortical activity associated with generating an inference was measured using fMRI. Participants read three-sentence passages that differed in whether or not an inference needed to be drawn to understand them. The inference was based on either a protagonist’s intention or a physical consequence of a character’s action. Activation was expected in Theory of Mind brain regions for the passages based on protagonists’ intentions but not for the physical consequence passages. The activation measured in the right temporo-parietal junction was greater in the intentional passages than in the consequence passages, consistent with predictions from a Theory of Mind perspective. In contrast, there was increased occipital activation in the physical inference passages. For both types of passage, the cortical activity related to the reading of the critical inference sentence demonstrated a recruitment of a common inference cortical network. This general inference-related activation appeared bilaterally in the language processing areas (the inferior frontal gyrus, the temporal gyrus, and the angular gyrus), as well as in the medial to superior frontal gyrus, which has been found to be active in Theory of Mind tasks. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that component areas of the discourse processing network are recruited as needed based on the nature of the inference. A Protagonist monitoring and synthesis network is proposed as a more accurate account for Theory of Mind activation during narrative comprehension. PMID:21229617

ANUBIS: artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system.

PubMed

Smith, Benjamin J H; Saaj, Chakravarthini M; Allouis, Elie

2013-01-01

Gain tuning is a crucial part of controller design and depends not only on an accurate understanding of the system in question, but also on the designer's ability to predict what disturbances and other perturbations the system will encounter throughout its operation. This letter presents ANUBIS (artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system), a novel biologically inspired technique for automatically tuning controller parameters in real time. ANUBIS is based on the Bayesian brain concept and modifies it by incorporating a model of the neuromodulatory system comprising four artificial neuromodulators. It has been applied to the controller of EchinoBot, a prototype walking rover for Martian exploration. ANUBIS has been implemented at three levels of the controller; gait generation, foot trajectory planning using Bézier curves, and foot trajectory tracking using a terminal sliding mode controller. We compare the results to a similar system that has been tuned using a multilayer perceptron. The use of Bayesian inference means that the system retains mathematical interpretability, unlike other intelligent tuning techniques, which use neural networks, fuzzy logic, or evolutionary algorithms. The simulation results show that ANUBIS provides significant improvements in efficiency and adaptability of the three controller components; it allows the robot to react to obstacles and uncertainties faster than the system tuned with the MLP, while maintaining stability and accuracy. As well as advancing rover autonomy, ANUBIS could also be applied to other situations where operating conditions are likely to change or cannot be accurately modeled in advance, such as process control. In addition, it demonstrates one way in which neuromodulation could fit into the Bayesian brain framework.

Knowledge-based reasoning in the Paladin tactical decision generation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Alan R.

1993-01-01

A real-time tactical decision generation system for air combat engagements, Paladin, has been developed. A pilot's job in air combat includes tasks that are largely symbolic. These symbolic tasks are generally performed through the application of experience and training (i.e. knowledge) gathered over years of flying a fighter aircraft. Two such tasks, situation assessment and throttle control, are identified and broken out in Paladin to be handled by specialized knowledge based systems. Knowledge pertaining to these tasks is encoded into rule-bases to provide the foundation for decisions. Paladin uses a custom built inference engine and a partitioned rule-base structure to give these symbolic results in real-time. This paper provides an overview of knowledge-based reasoning systems as a subset of rule-based systems. The knowledge used by Paladin in generating results as well as the system design for real-time execution is discussed.

Neural system prediction and identification challenge.

PubMed

Vlachos, Ioannis; Zaytsev, Yury V; Spreizer, Sebastian; Aertsen, Ad; Kumar, Arvind

2013-01-01

Can we infer the function of a biological neural network (BNN) if we know the connectivity and activity of all its constituent neurons?This question is at the core of neuroscience and, accordingly, various methods have been developed to record the activity and connectivity of as many neurons as possible. Surprisingly, there is no theoretical or computational demonstration that neuronal activity and connectivity are indeed sufficient to infer the function of a BNN. Therefore, we pose the Neural Systems Identification and Prediction Challenge (nuSPIC). We provide the connectivity and activity of all neurons and invite participants (1) to infer the functions implemented (hard-wired) in spiking neural networks (SNNs) by stimulating and recording the activity of neurons and, (2) to implement predefined mathematical/biological functions using SNNs. The nuSPICs can be accessed via a web-interface to the NEST simulator and the user is not required to know any specific programming language. Furthermore, the nuSPICs can be used as a teaching tool. Finally, nuSPICs use the crowd-sourcing model to address scientific issues. With this computational approach we aim to identify which functions can be inferred by systematic recordings of neuronal activity and connectivity. In addition, nuSPICs will help the design and application of new experimental paradigms based on the structure of the SNN and the presumed function which is to be discovered.

Neural system prediction and identification challenge

PubMed Central

Vlachos, Ioannis; Zaytsev, Yury V.; Spreizer, Sebastian; Aertsen, Ad; Kumar, Arvind

2013-01-01

Can we infer the function of a biological neural network (BNN) if we know the connectivity and activity of all its constituent neurons?This question is at the core of neuroscience and, accordingly, various methods have been developed to record the activity and connectivity of as many neurons as possible. Surprisingly, there is no theoretical or computational demonstration that neuronal activity and connectivity are indeed sufficient to infer the function of a BNN. Therefore, we pose the Neural Systems Identification and Prediction Challenge (nuSPIC). We provide the connectivity and activity of all neurons and invite participants (1) to infer the functions implemented (hard-wired) in spiking neural networks (SNNs) by stimulating and recording the activity of neurons and, (2) to implement predefined mathematical/biological functions using SNNs. The nuSPICs can be accessed via a web-interface to the NEST simulator and the user is not required to know any specific programming language. Furthermore, the nuSPICs can be used as a teaching tool. Finally, nuSPICs use the crowd-sourcing model to address scientific issues. With this computational approach we aim to identify which functions can be inferred by systematic recordings of neuronal activity and connectivity. In addition, nuSPICs will help the design and application of new experimental paradigms based on the structure of the SNN and the presumed function which is to be discovered. PMID:24399966

An expert system shell for inferring vegetation characteristics: The learning system (tasks C and D)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, P. Ann; Harrison, Patrick R.

1992-01-01

This report describes the implementation of a learning system that uses a data base of historical cover type reflectance data taken at different solar zenith angles and wavelengths to learn class descriptions of classes of cover types. It has been integrated with the VEG system and requires that the VEG system be loaded to operate. VEG is the NASA VEGetation workbench - an expert system for inferring vegetation characteristics from reflectance data. The learning system provides three basic options. Using option one, the system learns class descriptions of one or more classes. Using option two, the system learns class descriptions of one or more classes and then uses the learned classes to classify an unknown sample. Using option three, the user can test the system's classification performance. The learning system can also be run in an automatic mode. In this mode, options two and three are executed on each sample from an input file. The system was developed using KEE. It is menu driven and contains a sophisticated window and mouse driven interface which guides the user through various computations. Input and output file management and data formatting facilities are also provided.

Conceptual influences on category-based induction

PubMed Central

Gelman, Susan A.; Davidson, Natalie S.

2013-01-01

One important function of categories is to permit rich inductive inferences. Prior work shows that children use category labels to guide their inductive inferences. However, there are competing theories to explain this phenomenon, differing in the roles attributed to conceptual information versus perceptual similarity. Seven experiments with 4- to 5-year-old children and adults (N = 344) test these theories by teaching categories for which category membership and perceptual similarity are in conflict, and varying the conceptual basis of the novel categories. Results indicate that for non-natural kind categories that have little conceptual coherence, children make inferences based on perceptual similarity, whereas adults make inferences based on category membership. In contrast, for basic- and ontological-level categories that have a principled conceptual basis, children and adults alike make use of category membership more than perceptual similarity as the basis of their inferences. These findings provide evidence in favor of the role of conceptual information in preschoolers’ inferences, and further demonstrate that labeled categories are not all equivalent; they differ in their inductive potential. PMID:23517863

Connectivity inference from neural recording data: Challenges, mathematical bases and research directions.

PubMed

Magrans de Abril, Ildefons; Yoshimoto, Junichiro; Doya, Kenji

2018-06-01

This article presents a review of computational methods for connectivity inference from neural activity data derived from multi-electrode recordings or fluorescence imaging. We first identify biophysical and technical challenges in connectivity inference along the data processing pipeline. We then review connectivity inference methods based on two major mathematical foundations, namely, descriptive model-free approaches and generative model-based approaches. We investigate representative studies in both categories and clarify which challenges have been addressed by which method. We further identify critical open issues and possible research directions. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Eliminative Argumentation: A Basis for Arguing Confidence in System Properties

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-01

errors to acceptable system reliability is unsound . But this is not an acceptable undercutting defeater; it does not put the conclusion about system...first to note sources of unsoundness in arguments, namely, questionable inference rules and weaknesses in proffered evidence. However, the notions of...This material is based upon work funded and supported by the Department of Defense under Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0003 with Carnegie Mellon University

Adult Age Differences in Categorization and Multiple-Cue Judgment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mata, Rui; von Helversen, Bettina; Karlsson, Linnea; Cupper, Lutz

2012-01-01

We often need to infer unknown properties of objects from observable ones, just like detectives must infer guilt from observable clues and behavior. But how do inferential processes change with age? We examined young and older adults' reliance on rule-based and similarity-based processes in an inference task that can be considered either a…

Statistical inference and Aristotle's Rhetoric.

PubMed

Macdonald, Ranald R

2004-11-01

Formal logic operates in a closed system where all the information relevant to any conclusion is present, whereas this is not the case when one reasons about events and states of the world. Pollard and Richardson drew attention to the fact that the reasoning behind statistical tests does not lead to logically justifiable conclusions. In this paper statistical inferences are defended not by logic but by the standards of everyday reasoning. Aristotle invented formal logic, but argued that people mostly get at the truth with the aid of enthymemes--incomplete syllogisms which include arguing from examples, analogies and signs. It is proposed that statistical tests work in the same way--in that they are based on examples, invoke the analogy of a model and use the size of the effect under test as a sign that the chance hypothesis is unlikely. Of existing theories of statistical inference only a weak version of Fisher's takes this into account. Aristotle anticipated Fisher by producing an argument of the form that there were too many cases in which an outcome went in a particular direction for that direction to be plausibly attributed to chance. We can therefore conclude that Aristotle would have approved of statistical inference and there is a good reason for calling this form of statistical inference classical.

Visual shape perception as Bayesian inference of 3D object-centered shape representations.

PubMed

Erdogan, Goker; Jacobs, Robert A

2017-11-01

Despite decades of research, little is known about how people visually perceive object shape. We hypothesize that a promising approach to shape perception is provided by a "visual perception as Bayesian inference" framework which augments an emphasis on visual representation with an emphasis on the idea that shape perception is a form of statistical inference. Our hypothesis claims that shape perception of unfamiliar objects can be characterized as statistical inference of 3D shape in an object-centered coordinate system. We describe a computational model based on our theoretical framework, and provide evidence for the model along two lines. First, we show that, counterintuitively, the model accounts for viewpoint-dependency of object recognition, traditionally regarded as evidence against people's use of 3D object-centered shape representations. Second, we report the results of an experiment using a shape similarity task, and present an extensive evaluation of existing models' abilities to account for the experimental data. We find that our shape inference model captures subjects' behaviors better than competing models. Taken as a whole, our experimental and computational results illustrate the promise of our approach and suggest that people's shape representations of unfamiliar objects are probabilistic, 3D, and object-centered. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A New Fuzzy-Evidential Controller for Stabilization of the Planar Inverted Pendulum System

PubMed Central

Tang, Yongchuan; Zhou, Deyun

2016-01-01

In order to realize the stability control of the planar inverted pendulum system, which is a typical multi-variable and strong coupling system, a new fuzzy-evidential controller based on fuzzy inference and evidential reasoning is proposed. Firstly, for each axis, a fuzzy nine-point controller for the rod and a fuzzy nine-point controller for the cart are designed. Then, in order to coordinate these two controllers of each axis, a fuzzy-evidential coordinator is proposed. In this new fuzzy-evidential controller, the empirical knowledge for stabilization of the planar inverted pendulum system is expressed by fuzzy rules, while the coordinator of different control variables in each axis is built incorporated with the dynamic basic probability assignment (BPA) in the frame of fuzzy inference. The fuzzy-evidential coordinator makes the output of the control variable smoother, and the control effect of the new controller is better compared with some other work. The experiment in MATLAB shows the effectiveness and merit of the proposed method. PMID:27482707

A New Fuzzy-Evidential Controller for Stabilization of the Planar Inverted Pendulum System.

PubMed

Tang, Yongchuan; Zhou, Deyun; Jiang, Wen

2016-01-01

In order to realize the stability control of the planar inverted pendulum system, which is a typical multi-variable and strong coupling system, a new fuzzy-evidential controller based on fuzzy inference and evidential reasoning is proposed. Firstly, for each axis, a fuzzy nine-point controller for the rod and a fuzzy nine-point controller for the cart are designed. Then, in order to coordinate these two controllers of each axis, a fuzzy-evidential coordinator is proposed. In this new fuzzy-evidential controller, the empirical knowledge for stabilization of the planar inverted pendulum system is expressed by fuzzy rules, while the coordinator of different control variables in each axis is built incorporated with the dynamic basic probability assignment (BPA) in the frame of fuzzy inference. The fuzzy-evidential coordinator makes the output of the control variable smoother, and the control effect of the new controller is better compared with some other work. The experiment in MATLAB shows the effectiveness and merit of the proposed method.

Inferred flows of electric currents in solar active regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ding, Y. J.; Hong, Q. F.; Hagyard, M. J.; Deloach, A. C.

1985-01-01

Techniques to identify sources of major current systems in active regions and their channels of flow are explored. Measured photospheric vector magnetic fields together with high resolution white light and H-alpha photographs provide the data base to derive the current systems in the photosphere and chromosphere of a solar active region. Simple mathematical constructions of active region fields and currents are used to interpret these data under the assumptions that the fields in the lower atmosphere (below 200 km) may not be force free but those in the chromosphere and higher are. The results obtained for the complex active region AR 2372 are: (1) Spots exhibiting significant spiral structure in the penumbral filaments were the source of vertical currents at the photospheric surface; (2) Magnetic neutral lines where the transverse magnetic field was strongly sheared were channels along which a strong current system flowed; (3) The inferred current systems produced a neutral sheet and oppositely-flowing currents in the area of the magnetic delta configuration that was the site of flaring.

Extended specificity studies of mRNA assays used to infer human organ tissues and body fluids.

PubMed

van den Berge, Margreet; Sijen, Titia

2017-12-01

Messenger RNA (mRNA) profiling is a technique increasingly applied for the forensic identification of body fluids and skin. More recently, an mRNA-based organ typing assay was developed which allows for the inference of brain, lung, liver, skeletal muscle, heart, kidney, and skin tissue. When applying this organ typing system in forensic casework for the presence of animal, rather than human, tissue is an alternative scenario to be proposed, for instance that bullets carry cell material from a hunting event. Even though mRNA profiling systems are commonly in silico designed to be primate specific, physical testing against other animal species is generally limited. In this study, human specificity of the organ tissue inferring system was assessed against organ tissue RNAs of various animals. Results confirm human specificity of the system, especially when utilizing interpretation rules considering multiple markers per cell type. Besides, we cross-tested our organ and body fluid mRNA assays against the target types covered by the other assay. Marker expression in the nontarget organ tissues and body fluids was observed to a limited extent, which emphasizes the importance of involving the case-specific context of the forensic samples in deciding which mRNA profiling assay to use and when for interpreting results. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A multiprocessing architecture for real-time monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, James L.; Kao, Simon M.; Read, Jackson Y.; Weitzenkamp, Scott M.; Laffey, Thomas J.

1988-01-01

A multitasking architecture for performing real-time monitoring and analysis using knowledge-based problem solving techniques is described. To handle asynchronous inputs and perform in real time, the system consists of three or more distributed processes which run concurrently and communicate via a message passing scheme. The Data Management Process acquires, compresses, and routes the incoming sensor data to other processes. The Inference Process consists of a high performance inference engine that performs a real-time analysis on the state and health of the physical system. The I/O Process receives sensor data from the Data Management Process and status messages and recommendations from the Inference Process, updates its graphical displays in real time, and acts as the interface to the console operator. The distributed architecture has been interfaced to an actual spacecraft (NASA's Hubble Space Telescope) and is able to process the incoming telemetry in real-time (i.e., several hundred data changes per second). The system is being used in two locations for different purposes: (1) in Sunnyville, California at the Space Telescope Test Control Center it is used in the preflight testing of the vehicle; and (2) in Greenbelt, Maryland at NASA/Goddard it is being used on an experimental basis in flight operations for health and safety monitoring.

Modeling human pilot cue utilization with applications to simulator fidelity assessment.

PubMed

Zeyada, Y; Hess, R A

2000-01-01

An analytical investigation to model the manner in which pilots perceive and utilize visual, proprioceptive, and vestibular cues in a ground-based flight simulator was undertaken. Data from a NASA Ames Research Center vertical motion simulator study of a simple, single-degree-of-freedom rotorcraft bob-up/down maneuver were employed in the investigation. The study was part of a larger research effort that has the creation of a methodology for determining flight simulator fidelity requirements as its ultimate goal. The study utilized a closed-loop feedback structure of the pilot/simulator system that included the pilot, the cockpit inceptor, the dynamics of the simulated vehicle, and the motion system. With the exception of time delays that accrued in visual scene production in the simulator, visual scene effects were not included in this study. Pilot/vehicle analysis and fuzzy-inference identification were employed to study the changes in fidelity that occurred as the characteristics of the motion system were varied over five configurations. The data from three of the five pilots who participated in the experimental study were analyzed in the fuzzy-inference identification. Results indicate that both the analytical pilot/vehicle analysis and the fuzzy-inference identification can be used to identify changes in simulator fidelity for the task examined.

An expert system for diagnosing environmentally induced spacecraft anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rolincik, Mark; Lauriente, Michael; Koons, Harry C.; Gorney, David

1992-01-01

A new rule-based, machine independent analytical tool was designed for diagnosing spacecraft anomalies using an expert system. Expert systems provide an effective method for saving knowledge, allow computers to sift through large amounts of data pinpointing significant parts, and most importantly, use heuristics in addition to algorithms, which allow approximate reasoning and inference and the ability to attack problems not rigidly defined. The knowledge base consists of over two-hundred (200) rules and provides links to historical and environmental databases. The environmental causes considered are bulk charging, single event upsets (SEU), surface charging, and total radiation dose. The system's driver translates forward chaining rules into a backward chaining sequence, prompting the user for information pertinent to the causes considered. The use of heuristics frees the user from searching through large amounts of irrelevant information and allows the user to input partial information (varying degrees of confidence in an answer) or 'unknown' to any question. The modularity of the expert system allows for easy updates and modifications. It not only provides scientists with needed risk analysis and confidence not found in algorithmic programs, but is also an effective learning tool, and the window implementation makes it very easy to use. The system currently runs on a Micro VAX II at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The inference engine used is NASA's C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS).

Erratum: Erratum to Central European Journal of Engineering, Volume 4, Issue 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, M. Ajay; Srikanth, N. V.

2014-06-01

Paper by M. Ajay Kumar, N. V. Srikanth, et al. "An adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system controlled space cector pulse width modulation based HVDC light transmission system under AC fault conditions" in Volume 4, Issue 1, 27-38/March 2014 doi: 10.2478/s13531-013-0143-4 contains an error in the title. The correct title is presented below

Metainference: A Bayesian inference method for heterogeneous systems.

PubMed

Bonomi, Massimiliano; Camilloni, Carlo; Cavalli, Andrea; Vendruscolo, Michele

2016-01-01

Modeling a complex system is almost invariably a challenging task. The incorporation of experimental observations can be used to improve the quality of a model and thus to obtain better predictions about the behavior of the corresponding system. This approach, however, is affected by a variety of different errors, especially when a system simultaneously populates an ensemble of different states and experimental data are measured as averages over such states. To address this problem, we present a Bayesian inference method, called "metainference," that is able to deal with errors in experimental measurements and with experimental measurements averaged over multiple states. To achieve this goal, metainference models a finite sample of the distribution of models using a replica approach, in the spirit of the replica-averaging modeling based on the maximum entropy principle. To illustrate the method, we present its application to a heterogeneous model system and to the determination of an ensemble of structures corresponding to the thermal fluctuations of a protein molecule. Metainference thus provides an approach to modeling complex systems with heterogeneous components and interconverting between different states by taking into account all possible sources of errors.

Travel Time Estimation Using Freeway Point Detector Data Based on Evolving Fuzzy Neural Inference System.

PubMed

Tang, Jinjun; Zou, Yajie; Ash, John; Zhang, Shen; Liu, Fang; Wang, Yinhai

2016-01-01

Travel time is an important measurement used to evaluate the extent of congestion within road networks. This paper presents a new method to estimate the travel time based on an evolving fuzzy neural inference system. The input variables in the system are traffic flow data (volume, occupancy, and speed) collected from loop detectors located at points both upstream and downstream of a given link, and the output variable is the link travel time. A first order Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy rule set is used to complete the inference. For training the evolving fuzzy neural network (EFNN), two learning processes are proposed: (1) a K-means method is employed to partition input samples into different clusters, and a Gaussian fuzzy membership function is designed for each cluster to measure the membership degree of samples to the cluster centers. As the number of input samples increases, the cluster centers are modified and membership functions are also updated; (2) a weighted recursive least squares estimator is used to optimize the parameters of the linear functions in the Takagi-Sugeno type fuzzy rules. Testing datasets consisting of actual and simulated data are used to test the proposed method. Three common criteria including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute relative error (MARE) are utilized to evaluate the estimation performance. Estimation results demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the EFNN method through comparison with existing methods including: multiple linear regression (MLR), instantaneous model (IM), linear model (LM), neural network (NN), and cumulative plots (CP).

Travel Time Estimation Using Freeway Point Detector Data Based on Evolving Fuzzy Neural Inference System

PubMed Central

Tang, Jinjun; Zou, Yajie; Ash, John; Zhang, Shen; Liu, Fang; Wang, Yinhai

2016-01-01

Travel time is an important measurement used to evaluate the extent of congestion within road networks. This paper presents a new method to estimate the travel time based on an evolving fuzzy neural inference system. The input variables in the system are traffic flow data (volume, occupancy, and speed) collected from loop detectors located at points both upstream and downstream of a given link, and the output variable is the link travel time. A first order Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy rule set is used to complete the inference. For training the evolving fuzzy neural network (EFNN), two learning processes are proposed: (1) a K-means method is employed to partition input samples into different clusters, and a Gaussian fuzzy membership function is designed for each cluster to measure the membership degree of samples to the cluster centers. As the number of input samples increases, the cluster centers are modified and membership functions are also updated; (2) a weighted recursive least squares estimator is used to optimize the parameters of the linear functions in the Takagi-Sugeno type fuzzy rules. Testing datasets consisting of actual and simulated data are used to test the proposed method. Three common criteria including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute relative error (MARE) are utilized to evaluate the estimation performance. Estimation results demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the EFNN method through comparison with existing methods including: multiple linear regression (MLR), instantaneous model (IM), linear model (LM), neural network (NN), and cumulative plots (CP). PMID:26829639

Understanding pictorial information in biology: students' cognitive activities and visual reading strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandstetter, Miriam; Sandmann, Angela; Florian, Christine

2017-06-01

In classroom, scientific contents are increasingly communicated through visual forms of representations. Students' learning outcomes rely on their ability to read and understand pictorial information. Understanding pictorial information in biology requires cognitive effort and can be challenging to students. Yet evidence-based knowledge about students' visual reading strategies during the process of understanding pictorial information is pending. Therefore, 42 students at the age of 14-15 were asked to think aloud while trying to understand visual representations of the blood circulatory system and the patellar reflex. A category system was developed differentiating 16 categories of cognitive activities. A Principal Component Analysis revealed two underlying patterns of activities that can be interpreted as visual reading strategies: 1. Inferences predominated by using a problem-solving schema; 2. Inferences predominated by recall of prior content knowledge. Each pattern consists of a specific set of cognitive activities that reflect selection, organisation and integration of pictorial information as well as different levels of expertise. The results give detailed insights into cognitive activities of students who were required to understand the pictorial information of complex organ systems. They provide an evidence-based foundation to derive instructional aids that can promote students pictorial-information-based learning on different levels of expertise.

Inference of a Nonlinear Stochastic Model of the Cardiorespiratory Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smelyanskiy, V. N.; Luchinsky, D. G.; Stefanovska, A.; McClintock, P. V.

2005-03-01

We reconstruct a nonlinear stochastic model of the cardiorespiratory interaction in terms of a set of polynomial basis functions representing the nonlinear force governing system oscillations. The strength and direction of coupling and noise intensity are simultaneously inferred from a univariate blood pressure signal. Our new inference technique does not require extensive global optimization, and it is applicable to a wide range of complex dynamical systems subject to noise.

Dioecy in Amborella trichopoda: evidence for genetically based sex determination and its consequences for inferences of the breeding system in early angiosperms.

PubMed

Anger, Nicolas; Fogliani, Bruno; Scutt, Charles P; Gâteblé, Gildas

2017-03-01

This work aimed to gain insight into the breeding system at the base of living angiosperms through both character state reconstructions and the study of sex ratios and phenotypes in the likely sister to all other living angiosperms, Amborella trichopoda . Sex phenotypes were mapped onto a phylogeny of basally diverging angiosperms using maximum parsimony. In parallel, sex ratios and phenotypes were studied over two consecutive flowering seasons in an ex situ population of A. trichopoda , while the sex ratio of an in situ population was also assessed. Parsimony analyses failed to resolve the breeding system present at the base of living angiosperms, but indicated the importance of A. trichopoda for the future elucidation of this question. The ex situ A. trichopoda population studied showed a primary sex ratio close to 1:1, though sex ratio bias was found in the in situ population studied. Instances of sexual instability were quantified in both populations. Sex ratio data support the presence of genetic sex determination in A. trichopoda , whose further elucidation may guide inferences on the breeding system at the base of living angiosperms. Sexual instability in A. trichopoda suggests the operation of epigenetic mechanisms, and the evolution of dioecy via a gynodioecious intermediate. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Performance enhancement of low-cost, high-accuracy, state estimation for vehicle collision prevention system using ANFIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saadeddin, Kamal; Abdel-Hafez, Mamoun F.; Jaradat, Mohammad A.; Jarrah, Mohammad Amin

2013-12-01

In this paper, a low-cost navigation system that fuses the measurements of the inertial navigation system (INS) and the global positioning system (GPS) receiver is developed. First, the system's dynamics are obtained based on a vehicle's kinematic model. Second, the INS and GPS measurements are fused using an extended Kalman filter (EKF) approach. Subsequently, an artificial intelligence based approach for the fusion of INS/GPS measurements is developed based on an Input-Delayed Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (IDANFIS). Experimental tests are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the two sensor fusion approaches. It is found that the use of the proposed IDANFIS approach achieves a reduction in the integration development time and an improvement in the estimation accuracy of the vehicle's position and velocity compared to the EKF based approach.

Causal inference in nonlinear systems: Granger causality versus time-delayed mutual information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Songting; Xiao, Yanyang; Zhou, Douglas; Cai, David

2018-05-01

The Granger causality (GC) analysis has been extensively applied to infer causal interactions in dynamical systems arising from economy and finance, physics, bioinformatics, neuroscience, social science, and many other fields. In the presence of potential nonlinearity in these systems, the validity of the GC analysis in general is questionable. To illustrate this, here we first construct minimal nonlinear systems and show that the GC analysis fails to infer causal relations in these systems—it gives rise to all types of incorrect causal directions. In contrast, we show that the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI) analysis is able to successfully identify the direction of interactions underlying these nonlinear systems. We then apply both methods to neuroscience data collected from experiments and demonstrate that the TDMI analysis but not the GC analysis can identify the direction of interactions among neuronal signals. Our work exemplifies inference hazards in the GC analysis in nonlinear systems and suggests that the TDMI analysis can be an appropriate tool in such a case.

The implementation of two stages clustering (k-means clustering and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) for prediction of medicine need based on medical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husein, A. M.; Harahap, M.; Aisyah, S.; Purba, W.; Muhazir, A.

2018-03-01

Medication planning aim to get types, amount of medicine according to needs, and avoid the emptiness medicine based on patterns of disease. In making the medicine planning is still rely on ability and leadership experience, this is due to take a long time, skill, difficult to obtain a definite disease data, need a good record keeping and reporting, and the dependence of the budget resulted in planning is not going well, and lead to frequent lack and excess of medicines. In this research, we propose Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method to predict medication needs in 2016 and 2017 based on medical data in 2015 and 2016 from two source of hospital. The framework of analysis using two approaches. The first phase is implementing ANFIS to a data source, while the second approach we keep using ANFIS, but after the process of clustering from K-Means algorithm, both approaches are calculated values of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for training and testing. From the testing result, the proposed method with better prediction rates based on the evaluation analysis of quantitative and qualitative compared with existing systems, however the implementation of K-Means Algorithm against ANFIS have an effect on the timing of the training process and provide a classification accuracy significantly better without clustering.

Fundamentals and Recent Developments in Approximate Bayesian Computation

PubMed Central

Lintusaari, Jarno; Gutmann, Michael U.; Dutta, Ritabrata; Kaski, Samuel; Corander, Jukka

2017-01-01

Abstract Bayesian inference plays an important role in phylogenetics, evolutionary biology, and in many other branches of science. It provides a principled framework for dealing with uncertainty and quantifying how it changes in the light of new evidence. For many complex models and inference problems, however, only approximate quantitative answers are obtainable. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) refers to a family of algorithms for approximate inference that makes a minimal set of assumptions by only requiring that sampling from a model is possible. We explain here the fundamentals of ABC, review the classical algorithms, and highlight recent developments. [ABC; approximate Bayesian computation; Bayesian inference; likelihood-free inference; phylogenetics; simulator-based models; stochastic simulation models; tree-based models.] PMID:28175922

Knowledge acquisition in the fuzzy knowledge representation framework of a medical consultation system.

PubMed

Boegl, Karl; Adlassnig, Klaus-Peter; Hayashi, Yoichi; Rothenfluh, Thomas E; Leitich, Harald

2004-01-01

This paper describes the fuzzy knowledge representation framework of the medical computer consultation system MedFrame/CADIAG-IV as well as the specific knowledge acquisition techniques that have been developed to support the definition of knowledge concepts and inference rules. As in its predecessor system CADIAG-II, fuzzy medical knowledge bases are used to model the uncertainty and the vagueness of medical concepts and fuzzy logic reasoning mechanisms provide the basic inference processes. The elicitation and acquisition of medical knowledge from domain experts has often been described as the most difficult and time-consuming task in knowledge-based system development in medicine. It comes as no surprise that this is even more so when unfamiliar representations like fuzzy membership functions are to be acquired. From previous projects we have learned that a user-centered approach is mandatory in complex and ill-defined knowledge domains such as internal medicine. This paper describes the knowledge acquisition framework that has been developed in order to make easier and more accessible the three main tasks of: (a) defining medical concepts; (b) providing appropriate interpretations for patient data; and (c) constructing inferential knowledge in a fuzzy knowledge representation framework. Special emphasis is laid on the motivations for some system design and data modeling decisions. The theoretical framework has been implemented in a software package, the Knowledge Base Builder Toolkit. The conception and the design of this system reflect the need for a user-centered, intuitive, and easy-to-handle tool. First results gained from pilot studies have shown that our approach can be successfully implemented in the context of a complex fuzzy theoretical framework. As a result, this critical aspect of knowledge-based system development can be accomplished more easily.

Evaluation of Second-Level Inference in fMRI Analysis

PubMed Central

Roels, Sanne P.; Loeys, Tom; Moerkerke, Beatrijs

2016-01-01

We investigate the impact of decisions in the second-level (i.e., over subjects) inferential process in functional magnetic resonance imaging on (1) the balance between false positives and false negatives and on (2) the data-analytical stability, both proxies for the reproducibility of results. Second-level analysis based on a mass univariate approach typically consists of 3 phases. First, one proceeds via a general linear model for a test image that consists of pooled information from different subjects. We evaluate models that take into account first-level (within-subjects) variability and models that do not take into account this variability. Second, one proceeds via inference based on parametrical assumptions or via permutation-based inference. Third, we evaluate 3 commonly used procedures to address the multiple testing problem: familywise error rate correction, False Discovery Rate (FDR) correction, and a two-step procedure with minimal cluster size. Based on a simulation study and real data we find that the two-step procedure with minimal cluster size results in most stable results, followed by the familywise error rate correction. The FDR results in most variable results, for both permutation-based inference and parametrical inference. Modeling the subject-specific variability yields a better balance between false positives and false negatives when using parametric inference. PMID:26819578

GPS-based system for satellite tracking and geodesy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bertiger, Willy I.; Thornton, Catherine L.

1989-01-01

High-performance receivers and data processing systems developed for GPS are reviewed. The GPS Inferred Positioning System (GIPSY) and the Orbiter Analysis and Simulation Software (OASIS) are described. The OASIS software is used to assess GPS system performance using GIPSY for data processing. Consideration is given to parameter estimation for multiday arcs, orbit repeatability, orbit prediction, daily baseline repeatability, agreement with VLBI, and ambiguity resolution. Also, the dual-frequency Rogue receiver, which can track up to eight GPS satellites simultaneously, is discussed.

Three-dimensional modeling of the neutron spectrum to infer plasma conditions in cryogenic inertial confinement fusion implosions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weilacher, F.; Radha, P. B.; Forrest, C.

2018-04-01

Neutron-based diagnostics are typically used to infer compressed core conditions such as areal density and ion temperature in deuterium-tritium (D-T) inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions. Asymmetries in the observed neutron-related quantities are important to understanding failure modes in these implosions. Neutrons from fusion reactions and their subsequent interactions including elastic scattering and neutron-induced deuteron breakup reactions are tracked to create spectra. It is shown that background subtraction is important for inferring areal density from backscattered neutrons and is less important for the forward-scattered neutrons. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation of a cryogenic implosion on the OMEGA Laser System [Boehly et al., Opt. Commun. 133, 495 (1997)] using the hydrodynamic code HYDRA [Marinak et al., Phys. Plasmas 8, 2275 (2001)] is post-processed using the tracking code IRIS3D. It is shown that different parts of the neutron spectrum from the view can be mapped into different regions of the implosion, enabling an inference of an areal-density map. It is also shown that the average areal-density and an areal-density map of the compressed target can be reconstructed with a finite number of detectors placed around the target chamber. Ion temperatures are inferred from the width of the D-D and D-T fusion neutron spectra. Backgrounds can significantly alter the inferred ion temperatures from the D-D reaction, whereas they insignificantly influence the inferred D-T ion temperatures for the areal densities typical of OMEGA implosions. Asymmetries resulting in fluid flow in the core are shown to influence the absolute inferred ion temperatures from both reactions, although relative inferred values continue to reflect the underlying asymmetry pattern. The work presented here is part of the wide range of the first set of studies performed with IRIS3D. This code will continue to be used for post-processing detailed hydrodynamic simulations and interpreting observed neutron spectra in ICF implosions.

Kenneth Burke's "Missing" Ethic.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tompkins, Phillip K.

In examining Kenneth Burke's maxim "ad bellum purificandum" (translated as "the purification of war"), it seems plausible to infer that Burke's entire system of thought was based on his outrage toward war and the misuse of symbols that makes war possible. Burke saw his criticisms of war not as mere passiveness but rather as…

Causal learning with local computations.

PubMed

Fernbach, Philip M; Sloman, Steven A

2009-05-01

The authors proposed and tested a psychological theory of causal structure learning based on local computations. Local computations simplify complex learning problems via cues available on individual trials to update a single causal structure hypothesis. Structural inferences from local computations make minimal demands on memory, require relatively small amounts of data, and need not respect normative prescriptions as inferences that are principled locally may violate those principles when combined. Over a series of 3 experiments, the authors found (a) systematic inferences from small amounts of data; (b) systematic inference of extraneous causal links; (c) influence of data presentation order on inferences; and (d) error reduction through pretraining. Without pretraining, a model based on local computations fitted data better than a Bayesian structural inference model. The data suggest that local computations serve as a heuristic for learning causal structure. Copyright 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Statistical inference for extended or shortened phase II studies based on Simon's two-stage designs.

PubMed

Zhao, Junjun; Yu, Menggang; Feng, Xi-Ping

2015-06-07

Simon's two-stage designs are popular choices for conducting phase II clinical trials, especially in the oncology trials to reduce the number of patients placed on ineffective experimental therapies. Recently Koyama and Chen (2008) discussed how to conduct proper inference for such studies because they found that inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan used. In particular, they proposed an inference method for studies when the actual second stage sample sizes differ from planned ones. We consider an alternative inference method based on likelihood ratio. In particular, we order permissible sample paths under Simon's two-stage designs using their corresponding conditional likelihood. In this way, we can calculate p-values using the common definition: the probability of obtaining a test statistic value at least as extreme as that observed under the null hypothesis. In addition to providing inference for a couple of scenarios where Koyama and Chen's method can be difficult to apply, the resulting estimate based on our method appears to have certain advantage in terms of inference properties in many numerical simulations. It generally led to smaller biases and narrower confidence intervals while maintaining similar coverages. We also illustrated the two methods in a real data setting. Inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan. Reported P-values, point estimates and confidence intervals for the response rate are not usually adjusted for the design's adaptiveness. Proper statistical inference procedures should be used.

Differentiable cortical networks for inferences concerning people's intentions versus physical causality.

PubMed

Mason, Robert A; Just, Marcel Adam

2011-02-01

Cortical activity associated with generating an inference was measured using fMRI. Participants read three-sentence passages that differed in whether or not an inference needed to be drawn to understand them. The inference was based on either a protagonist's intention or a physical consequence of a character's action. Activation was expected in Theory of Mind brain regions for the passages based on protagonists' intentions but not for the physical consequence passages. The activation measured in the right temporo-parietal junction was greater in the intentional passages than in the consequence passages, consistent with predictions from a Theory of Mind perspective. In contrast, there was increased occipital activation in the physical inference passages. For both types of passage, the cortical activity related to the reading of the critical inference sentence demonstrated a recruitment of a common inference cortical network. This general inference-related activation appeared bilaterally in the language processing areas (the inferior frontal gyrus, the temporal gyrus, and the angular gyrus), as well as in the medial to superior frontal gyrus, which has been found to be active in Theory of Mind tasks. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that component areas of the discourse processing network are recruited as needed based on the nature of the inference. A Protagonist monitoring and synthesis network is proposed as a more accurate account for Theory of Mind activation during narrative comprehension. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Gene Regulatory Network Inferences Using a Maximum-Relevance and Maximum-Significance Strategy

PubMed Central

Liu, Wei; Zhu, Wen; Liao, Bo; Chen, Xiangtao

2016-01-01

Recovering gene regulatory networks from expression data is a challenging problem in systems biology that provides valuable information on the regulatory mechanisms of cells. A number of algorithms based on computational models are currently used to recover network topology. However, most of these algorithms have limitations. For example, many models tend to be complicated because of the “large p, small n” problem. In this paper, we propose a novel regulatory network inference method called the maximum-relevance and maximum-significance network (MRMSn) method, which converts the problem of recovering networks into a problem of how to select the regulator genes for each gene. To solve the latter problem, we present an algorithm that is based on information theory and selects the regulator genes for a specific gene by maximizing the relevance and significance. A first-order incremental search algorithm is used to search for regulator genes. Eventually, a strict constraint is adopted to adjust all of the regulatory relationships according to the obtained regulator genes and thus obtain the complete network structure. We performed our method on five different datasets and compared our method to five state-of-the-art methods for network inference based on information theory. The results confirm the effectiveness of our method. PMID:27829000

Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

PubMed

Campbell, John O

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference

PubMed Central

Campbell, John O.

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an “experiment” in the external world environment, and the results of that “experiment” or the “surprise” entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the “experiment.” Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of “surprise” experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature. PMID:27375438

Analogical and category-based inference: a theoretical integration with Bayesian causal models.

PubMed

Holyoak, Keith J; Lee, Hee Seung; Lu, Hongjing

2010-11-01

A fundamental issue for theories of human induction is to specify constraints on potential inferences. For inferences based on shared category membership, an analogy, and/or a relational schema, it appears that the basic goal of induction is to make accurate and goal-relevant inferences that are sensitive to uncertainty. People can use source information at various levels of abstraction (including both specific instances and more general categories), coupled with prior causal knowledge, to build a causal model for a target situation, which in turn constrains inferences about the target. We propose a computational theory in the framework of Bayesian inference and test its predictions (parameter-free for the cases we consider) in a series of experiments in which people were asked to assess the probabilities of various causal predictions and attributions about a target on the basis of source knowledge about generative and preventive causes. The theory proved successful in accounting for systematic patterns of judgments about interrelated types of causal inferences, including evidence that analogical inferences are partially dissociable from overall mapping quality.

Inferring Phylogenetic Relationships of Indian Citron (Citrus medica L.) based on rbcL and matK Sequences of Chloroplast DNA.

PubMed

Uchoi, Ajit; Malik, Surendra Kumar; Choudhary, Ravish; Kumar, Susheel; Rohini, M R; Pal, Digvender; Ercisli, Sezai; Chaudhury, Rekha

2016-06-01

Phylogenetic relationships of Indian Citron (Citrus medica L.) with other important Citrus species have been inferred through sequence analyses of rbcL and matK gene region of chloroplast DNA. The study was based on 23 accessions of Citrus genotypes representing 15 taxa of Indian Citrus, collected from wild, semi-wild, and domesticated stocks. The phylogeny was inferred using the maximum parsimony (MP) and neighbor-joining (NJ) methods. Both MP and NJ trees separated all the 23 accessions of Citrus into five distinct clusters. The chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) analysis based on rbcL and matK sequence data carried out in Indian taxa of Citrus was useful in differentiating all the true species and species/varieties of probable hybrid origin in distinct clusters or groups. Sequence analysis based on rbcL and matK gene provided unambiguous identification and disposition of true species like C. maxima, C. medica, C. reticulata, and related hybrids/cultivars. The separation of C. maxima, C. medica, and C. reticulata in distinct clusters or sub-clusters supports their distinctiveness as the basic species of edible Citrus. However, the cpDNA sequence analysis of rbcL and matK gene could not find any clear cut differentiation between subgenera Citrus and Papeda as proposed in Swingle's system of classification.

About recent star formation rates inferences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerviño, M.; Bongiovanni, A.; Hidalgo, S.

2017-03-01

Star Formation Rate (SFR) inferences are based in the so-called constant SFR approximation, where synthesis models are require to provide a calibration; we aims to study the key points of such approximation to produce accurate SFR inferences. We use the intrinsic algebra used in synthesis models, and we explore how SFR can be inferred from the integrated light without any assumption about the underling Star Formation history (SFH). We show that the constant SFR approximation is actually a simplified expression of more deeper characteristics of synthesis models: It is a characterization of the evolution of single stellar populations (SSPs), acting the SSPs as sensitivity curve over different measures of the SFH can be obtained. As results, we find that (1) the best age to calibrate SFR indices is the age of the observed system (i.e. about 13 Gyr for z = 0 systems); (2) constant SFR and steady-state luminosities are not requirements to calibrate the SFR ; (3) it is not possible to define a SFR single time scale over which the recent SFH is averaged, and we suggest to use typical SFR indices (ionizing flux, UV fluxes) together with no typical ones (optical/IR fluxes) to correct the SFR from the contribution of the old component of the SFH, we show how to use galaxy colors to quote age ranges where the recent component of the SFH is stronger/softer than the older component. Particular values of SFR calibrations are (almost) not affect by this work, but the meaning of what is obtained by SFR inferences does. In our framework, results as the correlation of SFR time scales with galaxy colors, or the sensitivity of different SFR indices to sort and long scale variations in the SFH, fit naturally. In addition, the present framework provides a theoretical guideline to optimize the available information from data/numerical experiments to improve the accuracy of SFR inferences. More info en Cerviño, Bongiovanni & Hidalgo A&A 588, 108C (2016)

Identifying Seizure Onset Zone From the Causal Connectivity Inferred Using Directed Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malladi, Rakesh; Kalamangalam, Giridhar; Tandon, Nitin; Aazhang, Behnaam

2016-10-01

In this paper, we developed a model-based and a data-driven estimator for directed information (DI) to infer the causal connectivity graph between electrocorticographic (ECoG) signals recorded from brain and to identify the seizure onset zone (SOZ) in epileptic patients. Directed information, an information theoretic quantity, is a general metric to infer causal connectivity between time-series and is not restricted to a particular class of models unlike the popular metrics based on Granger causality or transfer entropy. The proposed estimators are shown to be almost surely convergent. Causal connectivity between ECoG electrodes in five epileptic patients is inferred using the proposed DI estimators, after validating their performance on simulated data. We then proposed a model-based and a data-driven SOZ identification algorithm to identify SOZ from the causal connectivity inferred using model-based and data-driven DI estimators respectively. The data-driven SOZ identification outperforms the model-based SOZ identification algorithm when benchmarked against visual analysis by neurologist, the current clinical gold standard. The causal connectivity analysis presented here is the first step towards developing novel non-surgical treatments for epilepsy.

In defence of model-based inference in phylogeography

PubMed Central

Beaumont, Mark A.; Nielsen, Rasmus; Robert, Christian; Hey, Jody; Gaggiotti, Oscar; Knowles, Lacey; Estoup, Arnaud; Panchal, Mahesh; Corander, Jukka; Hickerson, Mike; Sisson, Scott A.; Fagundes, Nelson; Chikhi, Lounès; Beerli, Peter; Vitalis, Renaud; Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Huelsenbeck, John; Foll, Matthieu; Yang, Ziheng; Rousset, Francois; Balding, David; Excoffier, Laurent

2017-01-01

Recent papers have promoted the view that model-based methods in general, and those based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in particular, are flawed in a number of ways, and are therefore inappropriate for the analysis of phylogeographic data. These papers further argue that Nested Clade Phylogeographic Analysis (NCPA) offers the best approach in statistical phylogeography. In order to remove the confusion and misconceptions introduced by these papers, we justify and explain the reasoning behind model-based inference. We argue that ABC is a statistically valid approach, alongside other computational statistical techniques that have been successfully used to infer parameters and compare models in population genetics. We also examine the NCPA method and highlight numerous deficiencies, either when used with single or multiple loci. We further show that the ages of clades are carelessly used to infer ages of demographic events, that these ages are estimated under a simple model of panmixia and population stationarity but are then used under different and unspecified models to test hypotheses, a usage the invalidates these testing procedures. We conclude by encouraging researchers to study and use model-based inference in population genetics. PMID:29284924

Knowledge representation in fuzzy logic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zadeh, Lotfi A.

1989-01-01

The author presents a summary of the basic concepts and techniques underlying the application of fuzzy logic to knowledge representation. He then describes a number of examples relating to its use as a computational system for dealing with uncertainty and imprecision in the context of knowledge, meaning, and inference. It is noted that one of the basic aims of fuzzy logic is to provide a computational framework for knowledge representation and inference in an environment of uncertainty and imprecision. In such environments, fuzzy logic is effective when the solutions need not be precise and/or it is acceptable for a conclusion to have a dispositional rather than categorical validity. The importance of fuzzy logic derives from the fact that there are many real-world applications which fit these conditions, especially in the realm of knowledge-based systems for decision-making and control.

[Development of expert diagnostic system for common respiratory diseases].

PubMed

Xu, Wei-hua; Chen, You-ling; Yan, Zheng

2014-03-01

To develop an internet-based expert diagnostic system for common respiratory diseases. SaaS system was used to build architecture; pattern of forward reasoning was applied for inference engine design; ASP.NET with C# from the tool pack of Microsoft Visual Studio 2005 was used for website-interview medical expert system.The database of the system was constructed with Microsoft SQL Server 2005. The developed expert system contained large data memory and high efficient function of data interview and data analysis for diagnosis of various diseases.The users were able to perform this system to obtain diagnosis for common respiratory diseases via internet. The developed expert system may be used for internet-based diagnosis of various respiratory diseases,particularly in telemedicine setting.

Design Of An Intelligent Robotic System Organizer Via Expert System Tecniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Peter H.; Valavanis, Kimon P.

1989-02-01

Intelligent Robotic Systems are a special type of Intelligent Machines. When modeled based on Vle theory of Intelligent Controls, they are composed of three interactive levels, namely: organization, coordination, and execution, ordered according, to the ,Principle of Increasing, Intelligence with Decreasing Precl.sion. Expert System techniques, are used to design an Intelligent Robotic System Organizer with a dynamic Knowledge Base and an interactive Inference Engine. Task plans are formulated using, either or both of a Probabilistic Approach and Forward Chapling Methodology, depending on pertinent information associated with a spec;fic requested job. The Intelligent Robotic System, Organizer is implemented and tested on a prototype system operating in an uncertain environment. An evaluation of-the performance, of the prototype system is conducted based upon the probability of generating a successful task sequence versus the number of trials taken by the organizer.

Semantically Enhanced Online Configuration of Feedback Control Schemes.

PubMed

Milis, Georgios M; Panayiotou, Christos G; Polycarpou, Marios M

2018-03-01

Recent progress toward the realization of the "Internet of Things" has improved the ability of physical and soft/cyber entities to operate effectively within large-scale, heterogeneous systems. It is important that such capacity be accompanied by feedback control capabilities sufficient to ensure that the overall systems behave according to their specifications and meet their functional objectives. To achieve this, such systems require new architectures that facilitate the online deployment, composition, interoperability, and scalability of control system components. Most current control systems lack scalability and interoperability because their design is based on a fixed configuration of specific components, with knowledge of their individual characteristics only implicitly passed through the design. This paper addresses the need for flexibility when replacing components or installing new components, which might occur when an existing component is upgraded or when a new application requires a new component, without the need to readjust or redesign the overall system. A semantically enhanced feedback control architecture is introduced for a class of systems, aimed at accommodating new components into a closed-loop control framework by exploiting the semantic inference capabilities of an ontology-based knowledge model. This architecture supports continuous operation of the control system, a crucial property for large-scale systems for which interruptions have negative impact on key performance metrics that may include human comfort and welfare or economy costs. A case-study example from the smart buildings domain is used to illustrate the proposed architecture and semantic inference mechanisms.

Linear-time reconstruction of zero-recombinant Mendelian inheritance on pedigrees without mating loops.

PubMed

Liu, Lan; Jiang, Tao

2007-01-01

With the launch of the international HapMap project, the haplotype inference problem has attracted a great deal of attention in the computational biology community recently. In this paper, we study the question of how to efficiently infer haplotypes from genotypes of individuals related by a pedigree without mating loops, assuming that the hereditary process was free of mutations (i.e. the Mendelian law of inheritance) and recombinants. We model the haplotype inference problem as a system of linear equations as in [10] and present an (optimal) linear-time (i.e. O(mn) time) algorithm to generate a particular solution (A particular solution of any linear system is an assignment of numerical values to the variables in the system which satisfies the equations in the system.) to the haplotype inference problem, where m is the number of loci (or markers) in a genotype and n is the number of individuals in the pedigree. Moreover, the algorithm also provides a general solution (A general solution of any linear system is denoted by the span of a basis in the solution space to its associated homogeneous system, offset from the origin by a vector, namely by any particular solution. A general solution for ZRHC is very useful in practice because it allows the end user to efficiently enumerate all solutions for ZRHC and performs tasks such as random sampling.) in O(mn2) time, which is optimal because the size of a general solution could be as large as Theta(mn2). The key ingredients of our construction are (i) a fast consistency checking procedure for the system of linear equations introduced in [10] based on a careful investigation of the relationship between the equations (ii) a novel linear-time method for solving linear equations without invoking the Gaussian elimination method. Although such a fast method for solving equations is not known for general systems of linear equations, we take advantage of the underlying loop-free pedigree graph and some special properties of the linear equations.

Pedestrian Detection Based on Adaptive Selection of Visible Light or Far-Infrared Light Camera Image by Fuzzy Inference System and Convolutional Neural Network-Based Verification.

PubMed

Kang, Jin Kyu; Hong, Hyung Gil; Park, Kang Ryoung

2017-07-08

A number of studies have been conducted to enhance the pedestrian detection accuracy of intelligent surveillance systems. However, detecting pedestrians under outdoor conditions is a challenging problem due to the varying lighting, shadows, and occlusions. In recent times, a growing number of studies have been performed on visible light camera-based pedestrian detection systems using a convolutional neural network (CNN) in order to make the pedestrian detection process more resilient to such conditions. However, visible light cameras still cannot detect pedestrians during nighttime, and are easily affected by shadows and lighting. There are many studies on CNN-based pedestrian detection through the use of far-infrared (FIR) light cameras (i.e., thermal cameras) to address such difficulties. However, when the solar radiation increases and the background temperature reaches the same level as the body temperature, it remains difficult for the FIR light camera to detect pedestrians due to the insignificant difference between the pedestrian and non-pedestrian features within the images. Researchers have been trying to solve this issue by inputting both the visible light and the FIR camera images into the CNN as the input. This, however, takes a longer time to process, and makes the system structure more complex as the CNN needs to process both camera images. This research adaptively selects a more appropriate candidate between two pedestrian images from visible light and FIR cameras based on a fuzzy inference system (FIS), and the selected candidate is verified with a CNN. Three types of databases were tested, taking into account various environmental factors using visible light and FIR cameras. The results showed that the proposed method performs better than the previously reported methods.

The application of fuzzy Delphi and fuzzy inference system in supplier ranking and selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahriri, Farzad; Mousavi, Maryam; Hozhabri Haghighi, Siamak; Zawiah Md Dawal, Siti

2014-06-01

In today's highly rival market, an effective supplier selection process is vital to the success of any manufacturing system. Selecting the appropriate supplier is always a difficult task because suppliers posses varied strengths and weaknesses that necessitate careful evaluations prior to suppliers' ranking. This is a complex process with many subjective and objective factors to consider before the benefits of supplier selection are achieved. This paper identifies six extremely critical criteria and thirteen sub-criteria based on the literature. A new methodology employing those criteria and sub-criteria is proposed for the assessment and ranking of a given set of suppliers. To handle the subjectivity of the decision maker's assessment, an integration of fuzzy Delphi with fuzzy inference system has been applied and a new ranking method is proposed for supplier selection problem. This supplier selection model enables decision makers to rank the suppliers based on three classifications including "extremely preferred", "moderately preferred", and "weakly preferred". In addition, in each classification, suppliers are put in order from highest final score to the lowest. Finally, the methodology is verified and validated through an example of a numerical test bed.

[Physiology in Relation to Anesthesia Practice: Preface and Comments].

PubMed

Yamada, Yoshitsugu

2016-05-01

It has been long recognized that anesthesia practice is profoundly based in physiology. With the advance of the technology of imaging, measurement and information, a serious gap has emerged between anesthesia mainly handling gross systemic parameters and molecular physiology. One of the main reasons is the lack of establishment of integration approach. This special series of reviews deals with systems physiology covering respiratory, cardiovascular, and nervous systems. It also includes metabolism, and fluid, acid-base, and electrolyte balance. Each review focuses on several physiological concepts in each area, explaining current understanding and limits of the concepts based on the new findings. They reaffirm the importance of applying physiological inference in anesthesia practice and underscore the needs of advancement of systems physiology.

Prediction of Drug-Target Interactions and Drug Repositioning via Network-Based Inference

PubMed Central

Jiang, Jing; Lu, Weiqiang; Li, Weihua; Liu, Guixia; Zhou, Weixing; Huang, Jin; Tang, Yun

2012-01-01

Drug-target interaction (DTI) is the basis of drug discovery and design. It is time consuming and costly to determine DTI experimentally. Hence, it is necessary to develop computational methods for the prediction of potential DTI. Based on complex network theory, three supervised inference methods were developed here to predict DTI and used for drug repositioning, namely drug-based similarity inference (DBSI), target-based similarity inference (TBSI) and network-based inference (NBI). Among them, NBI performed best on four benchmark data sets. Then a drug-target network was created with NBI based on 12,483 FDA-approved and experimental drug-target binary links, and some new DTIs were further predicted. In vitro assays confirmed that five old drugs, namely montelukast, diclofenac, simvastatin, ketoconazole, and itraconazole, showed polypharmacological features on estrogen receptors or dipeptidyl peptidase-IV with half maximal inhibitory or effective concentration ranged from 0.2 to 10 µM. Moreover, simvastatin and ketoconazole showed potent antiproliferative activities on human MDA-MB-231 breast cancer cell line in MTT assays. The results indicated that these methods could be powerful tools in prediction of DTIs and drug repositioning. PMID:22589709

An Ambulatory System for Gait Monitoring Based on Wireless Sensorized Insoles.

PubMed

González, Iván; Fontecha, Jesús; Hervás, Ramón; Bravo, José

2015-07-09

A new gait phase detection system for continuous monitoring based on wireless sensorized insoles is presented. The system can be used in gait analysis mobile applications, and it is designed for real-time demarcation of gait phases. The system employs pressure sensors to assess the force exerted by each foot during walking. A fuzzy rule-based inference algorithm is implemented on a smartphone and used to detect each of the gait phases based on the sensor signals. Additionally, to provide a solution that is insensitive to perturbations caused by non-walking activities, a probabilistic classifier is employed to discriminate walking forward from other low-level activities, such as turning, walking backwards, lateral walking, etc. The combination of these two algorithms constitutes the first approach towards a continuous gait assessment system, by means of the avoidance of non-walking influences.

Reasoning in explanation-based decision making.

PubMed

Pennington, N; Hastie, R

1993-01-01

A general theory of explanation-based decision making is outlined and the multiple roles of inference processes in the theory are indicated. A typology of formal and informal inference forms, originally proposed by Collins (1978a, 1978b), is introduced as an appropriate framework to represent inferences that occur in the overarching explanation-based process. Results from the analysis of verbal reports of decision processes are presented to demonstrate the centrality and systematic character of reasoning in a representative legal decision-making task.

Non-linear Interactions between Niño region 3 and the Southern Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M. D. T.; Builes-Jaramillo, L. A.; Poveda, G.; Goswami, B.; Macau, E. E. N.; Kurths, J.; Marwan, N.

2016-12-01

Identifying causal relations from the observational dataset has posed great challenges in data-driven inference study. However, complex system framework offers promising approaches to tackle such problems. Here we propose a new data-driven causality inference method using the framework of recurrence plots. We present the Recurrence Measure of Conditional Dependence (RMCD) and its applications. The RMCD incorporates the recurrence behavior into the transfer entropy theory. Therefore, it quantifies the causal dependence between two processes based on joint recurrence patterns between the past of the potential driver and present on the potential driven, except for any contribution that has already been in the past of the driven. We apply this methodology to some paradigmatic models and to investigate the possible influence of the Pacific Ocean temperatures on the South West Amazon for the 2010 and 2005 droughts. The results reveal that for the 2005 drought there is not a significant signal of dependence from the Pacific Ocean and that for 2010 there is a signal of dependence of around 200 days. These outcomes are confirmed by the traditional climatological analysis of these episodes available in the literature and show the accuracy of RMCD inferring causal relations in climate systems.

Action understanding and active inference

PubMed Central

Mattout, Jérémie; Kilner, James

2012-01-01

We have suggested that the mirror-neuron system might be usefully understood as implementing Bayes-optimal perception of actions emitted by oneself or others. To substantiate this claim, we present neuronal simulations that show the same representations can prescribe motor behavior and encode motor intentions during action–observation. These simulations are based on the free-energy formulation of active inference, which is formally related to predictive coding. In this scheme, (generalised) states of the world are represented as trajectories. When these states include motor trajectories they implicitly entail intentions (future motor states). Optimizing the representation of these intentions enables predictive coding in a prospective sense. Crucially, the same generative models used to make predictions can be deployed to predict the actions of self or others by simply changing the bias or precision (i.e. attention) afforded to proprioceptive signals. We illustrate these points using simulations of handwriting to illustrate neuronally plausible generation and recognition of itinerant (wandering) motor trajectories. We then use the same simulations to produce synthetic electrophysiological responses to violations of intentional expectations. Our results affirm that a Bayes-optimal approach provides a principled framework, which accommodates current thinking about the mirror-neuron system. Furthermore, it endorses the general formulation of action as active inference. PMID:21327826

The expert surgical assistant. An intelligent virtual environment with multimodal input.

PubMed

Billinghurst, M; Savage, J; Oppenheimer, P; Edmond, C

1996-01-01

Virtual Reality has made computer interfaces more intuitive but not more intelligent. This paper shows how an expert system can be coupled with multimodal input in a virtual environment to provide an intelligent simulation tool or surgical assistant. This is accomplished in three steps. First, voice and gestural input is interpreted and represented in a common semantic form. Second, a rule-based expert system is used to infer context and user actions from this semantic representation. Finally, the inferred user actions are matched against steps in a surgical procedure to monitor the user's progress and provide automatic feedback. In addition, the system can respond immediately to multimodal commands for navigational assistance and/or identification of critical anatomical structures. To show how these methods are used we present a prototype sinus surgery interface. The approach described here may easily be extended to a wide variety of medical and non-medical training applications by making simple changes to the expert system database and virtual environment models. Successful implementation of an expert system in both simulated and real surgery has enormous potential for the surgeon both in training and clinical practice.

System identification of smart structures using a wavelet neuro-fuzzy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Ryan; Kim, Yeesock; El-Korchi, Tahar

2012-11-01

This paper proposes a complex model of smart structures equipped with magnetorheological (MR) dampers. Nonlinear behavior of the structure-MR damper systems is represented by the use of a wavelet-based adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (WANFIS). The WANFIS is developed through the integration of wavelet transforms, artificial neural networks, and fuzzy logic theory. To evaluate the effectiveness of the WANFIS model, a three-story building employing an MR damper under a variety of natural hazards is investigated. An artificial earthquake is used for training the input-output mapping of the WANFIS model. The artificial earthquake is generated such that the characteristics of a variety of real recorded earthquakes are included. It is demonstrated that this new WANFIS approach is effective in modeling nonlinear behavior of the structure-MR damper system subjected to a variety of disturbances while resulting in shorter training times in comparison with an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model. Comparison with high fidelity data proves the viability of the proposed approach in a structural health monitoring setting, and it is validated using known earthquake signals such as El-Centro, Kobe, Northridge, and Hachinohe.

Development of the Spacecraft Materials Selector Expert System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pippin, H. G.

2000-01-01

A specific knowledge base to evaluate the on-orbit performance of selected materials on spacecraft is being developed under contract to the NASA SEE program. An artificial intelligence software package, the Boeing Expert System Tool (BEST), contains an inference engine used to operate knowledge bases constructed to selectively recall and distribute information about materials performance in space applications. This same system is used to make estimates of the environmental exposures expected for a given space flight. The performance capabilities of the Spacecraft Materials Selector (SMS) knowledge base are described in this paper. A case history for a planned flight experiment on ISS is shown as an example of the use of the SMS, and capabilities and limitations of the knowledge base are discussed.

Machine Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chikkagoudar, Satish; Chatterjee, Samrat; Thomas, Dennis G.

The absence of a robust and unified theory of cyber dynamics presents challenges and opportunities for using machine learning based data-driven approaches to further the understanding of the behavior of such complex systems. Analysts can also use machine learning approaches to gain operational insights. In order to be operationally beneficial, cybersecurity machine learning based models need to have the ability to: (1) represent a real-world system, (2) infer system properties, and (3) learn and adapt based on expert knowledge and observations. Probabilistic models and Probabilistic graphical models provide these necessary properties and are further explored in this chapter. Bayesian Networksmore » and Hidden Markov Models are introduced as an example of a widely used data driven classification/modeling strategy.« less

Approximation of epidemic models by diffusion processes and their statistical inference.

PubMed

Guy, Romain; Larédo, Catherine; Vergu, Elisabeta

2015-02-01

Multidimensional continuous-time Markov jump processes [Formula: see text] on [Formula: see text] form a usual set-up for modeling [Formula: see text]-like epidemics. However, when facing incomplete epidemic data, inference based on [Formula: see text] is not easy to be achieved. Here, we start building a new framework for the estimation of key parameters of epidemic models based on statistics of diffusion processes approximating [Formula: see text]. First, previous results on the approximation of density-dependent [Formula: see text]-like models by diffusion processes with small diffusion coefficient [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] is the population size, are generalized to non-autonomous systems. Second, our previous inference results on discretely observed diffusion processes with small diffusion coefficient are extended to time-dependent diffusions. Consistent and asymptotically Gaussian estimates are obtained for a fixed number [Formula: see text] of observations, which corresponds to the epidemic context, and for [Formula: see text]. A correction term, which yields better estimates non asymptotically, is also included. Finally, performances and robustness of our estimators with respect to various parameters such as [Formula: see text] (the basic reproduction number), [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] are investigated on simulations. Two models, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], corresponding to single and recurrent outbreaks, respectively, are used to simulate data. The findings indicate that our estimators have good asymptotic properties and behave noticeably well for realistic numbers of observations and population sizes. This study lays the foundations of a generic inference method currently under extension to incompletely observed epidemic data. Indeed, contrary to the majority of current inference techniques for partially observed processes, which necessitates computer intensive simulations, our method being mostly an analytical approach requires only the classical optimization steps.

Network geometry inference using common neighbors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadopoulos, Fragkiskos; Aldecoa, Rodrigo; Krioukov, Dmitri

2015-08-01

We introduce and explore a method for inferring hidden geometric coordinates of nodes in complex networks based on the number of common neighbors between the nodes. We compare this approach to the HyperMap method, which is based only on the connections (and disconnections) between the nodes, i.e., on the links that the nodes have (or do not have). We find that for high degree nodes, the common-neighbors approach yields a more accurate inference than the link-based method, unless heuristic periodic adjustments (or "correction steps") are used in the latter. The common-neighbors approach is computationally intensive, requiring O (t4) running time to map a network of t nodes, versus O (t3) in the link-based method. But we also develop a hybrid method with O (t3) running time, which combines the common-neighbors and link-based approaches, and we explore a heuristic that reduces its running time further to O (t2) , without significant reduction in the mapping accuracy. We apply this method to the autonomous systems (ASs) Internet, and we reveal how soft communities of ASs evolve over time in the similarity space. We further demonstrate the method's predictive power by forecasting future links between ASs. Taken altogether, our results advance our understanding of how to efficiently and accurately map real networks to their latent geometric spaces, which is an important necessary step toward understanding the laws that govern the dynamics of nodes in these spaces, and the fine-grained dynamics of network connections.

Safety Network to Detect Performance Degradation and Pilot Incapacitation (Reseau de securite pour detecter la degradation des performances et la defaillance du pilote)

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-09-01

military pilot acceptance of a safety network system would be based , as always, on the following: a. Do I really need such a system and will it be a...inferring pilot state based on computer analysis of pilot control inputs (or lack of)l. Having decided that the pilot is incapacitated, PMAS would alert...the advances being made in neural network computing machinery have necessitated a complete re-thinking of the conventional serial von Neuman machine

Feasibility study of direct spectra measurements for Thomson scattered signals for KSTAR fusion-grade plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, K.-R.; Kim, K.-h.; Kwak, S.; Svensson, J.; Lee, J.; Ghim, Y.-c.

2017-11-01

Feasibility study of direct spectra measurements of Thomson scattered photons for fusion-grade plasmas is performed based on a forward model of the KSTAR Thomson scattering system. Expected spectra in the forward model are calculated based on Selden function including the relativistic polarization correction. Noise in the signal is modeled with photon noise and Gaussian electrical noise. Electron temperature and density are inferred using Bayesian probability theory. Based on bias error, full width at half maximum and entropy of posterior distributions, spectral measurements are found to be feasible. Comparisons between spectrometer-based and polychromator-based Thomson scattering systems are performed with varying quantum efficiency and electrical noise levels.

Cerebellarlike corrective model inference engine for manipulation tasks.

PubMed

Luque, Niceto Rafael; Garrido, Jesús Alberto; Carrillo, Richard Rafael; Coenen, Olivier J-M D; Ros, Eduardo

2011-10-01

This paper presents how a simple cerebellumlike architecture can infer corrective models in the framework of a control task when manipulating objects that significantly affect the dynamics model of the system. The main motivation of this paper is to evaluate a simplified bio-mimetic approach in the framework of a manipulation task. More concretely, the paper focuses on how the model inference process takes place within a feedforward control loop based on the cerebellar structure and on how these internal models are built up by means of biologically plausible synaptic adaptation mechanisms. This kind of investigation may provide clues on how biology achieves accurate control of non-stiff-joint robot with low-power actuators which involve controlling systems with high inertial components. This paper studies how a basic temporal-correlation kernel including long-term depression (LTD) and a constant long-term potentiation (LTP) at parallel fiber-Purkinje cell synapses can effectively infer corrective models. We evaluate how this spike-timing-dependent plasticity correlates sensorimotor activity arriving through the parallel fibers with teaching signals (dependent on error estimates) arriving through the climbing fibers from the inferior olive. This paper addresses the study of how these LTD and LTP components need to be well balanced with each other to achieve accurate learning. This is of interest to evaluate the relevant role of homeostatic mechanisms in biological systems where adaptation occurs in a distributed manner. Furthermore, we illustrate how the temporal-correlation kernel can also work in the presence of transmission delays in sensorimotor pathways. We use a cerebellumlike spiking neural network which stores the corrective models as well-structured weight patterns distributed among the parallel fibers to Purkinje cell connections.

Application of Bayesian inference to the study of hierarchical organization in self-organized complex adaptive systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knuth, K. H.

2001-05-01

We consider the application of Bayesian inference to the study of self-organized structures in complex adaptive systems. In particular, we examine the distribution of elements, agents, or processes in systems dominated by hierarchical structure. We demonstrate that results obtained by Caianiello [1] on Hierarchical Modular Systems (HMS) can be found by applying Jaynes' Principle of Group Invariance [2] to a few key assumptions about our knowledge of hierarchical organization. Subsequent application of the Principle of Maximum Entropy allows inferences to be made about specific systems. The utility of the Bayesian method is considered by examining both successes and failures of the hierarchical model. We discuss how Caianiello's original statements suffer from the Mind Projection Fallacy [3] and we restate his assumptions thus widening the applicability of the HMS model. The relationship between inference and statistical physics, described by Jaynes [4], is reiterated with the expectation that this realization will aid the field of complex systems research by moving away from often inappropriate direct application of statistical mechanics to a more encompassing inferential methodology.

Usefulness of Neuro-Fuzzy Models' Application for Tobacco Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrovic-Lazarevic, Sonja; Zhang, Jian Ying

2007-12-01

The paper presents neuro-fuzzy models' application appropriate for tobacco control: the fuzzy control model, Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System, Evolving Fuzzy Neural Network models, and EVOlving POLicies. We propose further the use of Fuzzy Casual Networks to help tobacco control decision makers develop policies and measure their impact on social regulation.

Topic Models in Information Retrieval

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-08-01

Information Processing Systems, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, 2004. Brown, P.F., Della Pietra, V.J., deSouza, P.V., Lai, J.C. and Mercer, R.L., Class-based...2003. http://www.wkap.nl/prod/b/1-4020-1216-0. Croft, W.B., Lucia , T.J., Cringean, J., and Willett, P., Retrieving Documents By Plausible Inference

Confidence-Based Assessments within an Adult Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Novacek, Paul

2013-01-01

Traditional knowledge assessments rely on multiple-choice type questions that only report a right or wrong answer. The reliance within the education system on this technique infers that a student who provides a correct answer purely through guesswork possesses knowledge equivalent to a student who actually knows the correct answer. A more complete…

Active inference and robot control: a case study

PubMed Central

Nizard, Ange; Friston, Karl; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2016-01-01

Active inference is a general framework for perception and action that is gaining prominence in computational and systems neuroscience but is less known outside these fields. Here, we discuss a proof-of-principle implementation of the active inference scheme for the control or the 7-DoF arm of a (simulated) PR2 robot. By manipulating visual and proprioceptive noise levels, we show under which conditions robot control under the active inference scheme is accurate. Besides accurate control, our analysis of the internal system dynamics (e.g. the dynamics of the hidden states that are inferred during the inference) sheds light on key aspects of the framework such as the quintessentially multimodal nature of control and the differential roles of proprioception and vision. In the discussion, we consider the potential importance of being able to implement active inference in robots. In particular, we briefly review the opportunities for modelling psychophysiological phenomena such as sensory attenuation and related failures of gain control, of the sort seen in Parkinson's disease. We also consider the fundamental difference between active inference and optimal control formulations, showing that in the former the heavy lifting shifts from solving a dynamical inverse problem to creating deep forward or generative models with dynamics, whose attracting sets prescribe desired behaviours. PMID:27683002

Inferring Facts From Fiction: Reading Correct and Incorrect Information Affects Memory for Related Information

PubMed Central

Butler, Andrew C.; Dennis, Nancy A.; Marsh, Elizabeth J.

2012-01-01

People can acquire both true and false knowledge about the world from fictional stories (Marsh & Fazio, 2007). The present study explored whether the benefits and costs of learning about the world from fictional stories extend beyond memory for directly stated pieces of information. Of interest was whether readers would use correct and incorrect story references to make deductive inferences about related information in the story, and then integrate those inferences into their knowledge bases. Subjects read stories containing correct, neutral, and misleading references to facts about the world; each reference could be combined with another reference that occurred in a later sentence to make a deductive inference. Later, they answered general knowledge questions that tested for these deductive inferences. The results showed that subjects generated and retained the deductive inferences regardless of whether the inferences were consistent or inconsistent with world knowledge, and irrespective of whether the references were placed consecutively in the text or separated by many sentences. Readers learn more than what is directly stated in stories; they use references to the real world to make both correct and incorrect inferences that are integrated into their knowledge bases. PMID:22640369

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.; Luchinsky, Dmitry Georgievich; Hafiychuk, Vasyl Nmn; Osipov, Viatcheslav V.; Patterson-Hine, F. Ann

2010-01-01

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

cosmoabc: Likelihood-free inference for cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishida, Emille E. O.; Vitenti, Sandro D. P.; Penna-Lima, Mariana; Trindade, Arlindo M.; Cisewski, Jessi; M.; de Souza, Rafael; Cameron, Ewan; Busti, Vinicius C.

2015-05-01

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables parameter inference for complex physical systems in cases where the true likelihood function is unknown, unavailable, or computationally too expensive. It relies on the forward simulation of mock data and comparison between observed and synthetic catalogs. cosmoabc is a Python Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) sampler featuring a Population Monte Carlo variation of the original ABC algorithm, which uses an adaptive importance sampling scheme. The code can be coupled to an external simulator to allow incorporation of arbitrary distance and prior functions. When coupled with the numcosmo library, it has been used to estimate posterior probability distributions over cosmological parameters based on measurements of galaxy clusters number counts without computing the likelihood function.

An Advanced Computational Approach to System of Systems Analysis & Architecting Using Agent-Based Behavioral Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

System N Agent « datatype » SoS Architecture -Receives Capabilities1 -Provides Capabilities1 1 -Provides Capabilities1 1 -Provides Capabilities1 -Updates 1...fitness, or objective function. The structure of the SoS Agent is depicted in Figure 10. SoS Agent Architecture « datatype » Initial SoS...Architecture «subsystem» Fuzzy Inference Engine FAM « datatype » Affordability « datatype » Flexibility « datatype » Performance « datatype » Robustness Input Input

Neurally and ocularly informed graph-based models for searching 3D environments.

PubMed

Jangraw, David C; Wang, Jun; Lance, Brent J; Chang, Shih-Fu; Sajda, Paul

2014-08-01

As we move through an environment, we are constantly making assessments, judgments and decisions about the things we encounter. Some are acted upon immediately, but many more become mental notes or fleeting impressions-our implicit 'labeling' of the world. In this paper, we use physiological correlates of this labeling to construct a hybrid brain-computer interface (hBCI) system for efficient navigation of a 3D environment. First, we record electroencephalographic (EEG), saccadic and pupillary data from subjects as they move through a small part of a 3D virtual city under free-viewing conditions. Using machine learning, we integrate the neural and ocular signals evoked by the objects they encounter to infer which ones are of subjective interest to them. These inferred labels are propagated through a large computer vision graph of objects in the city, using semi-supervised learning to identify other, unseen objects that are visually similar to the labeled ones. Finally, the system plots an efficient route to help the subjects visit the 'similar' objects it identifies. We show that by exploiting the subjects' implicit labeling to find objects of interest instead of exploring naively, the median search precision is increased from 25% to 97%, and the median subject need only travel 40% of the distance to see 84% of the objects of interest. We also find that the neural and ocular signals contribute in a complementary fashion to the classifiers' inference of subjects' implicit labeling. In summary, we show that neural and ocular signals reflecting subjective assessment of objects in a 3D environment can be used to inform a graph-based learning model of that environment, resulting in an hBCI system that improves navigation and information delivery specific to the user's interests.

Fuzzy inference system for identification of geological stratigraphy off Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Upendra K.

2011-12-01

The analysis of well logging data plays key role in the exploration and development of hydrocarbon reservoirs. Various well log parameters such as porosity, gamma ray, density, transit time and resistivity, help in classification of strata and estimation of the physical, electrical and acoustical properties of the subsurface lithology. Strong and conspicuous changes in some of the log parameters associated with any particular geological stratigraphy formation are function of its composition, physical properties that help in classification. However some substrata show moderate values in respective log parameters and make difficult to identify the kind of strata, if we go by the standard variability ranges of any log parameters and visual inspection. The complexity increases further with more number of sensors involved. An attempt is made to identify the kinds of stratigraphy from well logs over Prydz bay basin, East Antarctica using fuzzy inference system. A model is built based on few data sets of known stratigraphy and further the network model is used as test model to infer the lithology of a borehole from their geophysical logs, not used in simulation. Initially the fuzzy based algorithm is trained, validated and tested on well log data and finally identifies the formation lithology of a hydrocarbon reservoir system of study area. The effectiveness of this technique is demonstrated by the analysis of the results for actual lithologs and coring data of ODP Leg 188. The fuzzy results show that the training performance equals to 82.95% while the prediction ability is 87.69%. The fuzzy results are very encouraging and the model is able to decipher even thin layer seams and other strata from geophysical logs. The result provides the significant sand formation of depth range 316.0- 341.0 m, where core recovery is incomplete.

Neurally and ocularly informed graph-based models for searching 3D environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jangraw, David C.; Wang, Jun; Lance, Brent J.; Chang, Shih-Fu; Sajda, Paul

2014-08-01

Objective. As we move through an environment, we are constantly making assessments, judgments and decisions about the things we encounter. Some are acted upon immediately, but many more become mental notes or fleeting impressions—our implicit ‘labeling’ of the world. In this paper, we use physiological correlates of this labeling to construct a hybrid brain-computer interface (hBCI) system for efficient navigation of a 3D environment. Approach. First, we record electroencephalographic (EEG), saccadic and pupillary data from subjects as they move through a small part of a 3D virtual city under free-viewing conditions. Using machine learning, we integrate the neural and ocular signals evoked by the objects they encounter to infer which ones are of subjective interest to them. These inferred labels are propagated through a large computer vision graph of objects in the city, using semi-supervised learning to identify other, unseen objects that are visually similar to the labeled ones. Finally, the system plots an efficient route to help the subjects visit the ‘similar’ objects it identifies. Main results. We show that by exploiting the subjects’ implicit labeling to find objects of interest instead of exploring naively, the median search precision is increased from 25% to 97%, and the median subject need only travel 40% of the distance to see 84% of the objects of interest. We also find that the neural and ocular signals contribute in a complementary fashion to the classifiers’ inference of subjects’ implicit labeling. Significance. In summary, we show that neural and ocular signals reflecting subjective assessment of objects in a 3D environment can be used to inform a graph-based learning model of that environment, resulting in an hBCI system that improves navigation and information delivery specific to the user’s interests.

System Support for Forensic Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehani, Ashish; Kirchner, Florent; Shankar, Natarajan

Digital evidence is playing an increasingly important role in prosecuting crimes. The reasons are manifold: financially lucrative targets are now connected online, systems are so complex that vulnerabilities abound and strong digital identities are being adopted, making audit trails more useful. If the discoveries of forensic analysts are to hold up to scrutiny in court, they must meet the standard for scientific evidence. Software systems are currently developed without consideration of this fact. This paper argues for the development of a formal framework for constructing “digital artifacts” that can serve as proxies for physical evidence; a system so imbued would facilitate sound digital forensic inference. A case study involving a filesystem augmentation that provides transparent support for forensic inference is described.

Maximum profile likelihood estimation of differential equation parameters through model based smoothing state estimates.

PubMed

Campbell, D A; Chkrebtii, O

2013-12-01

Statistical inference for biochemical models often faces a variety of characteristic challenges. In this paper we examine state and parameter estimation for the JAK-STAT intracellular signalling mechanism, which exemplifies the implementation intricacies common in many biochemical inference problems. We introduce an extension to the Generalized Smoothing approach for estimating delay differential equation models, addressing selection of complexity parameters, choice of the basis system, and appropriate optimization strategies. Motivated by the JAK-STAT system, we further extend the generalized smoothing approach to consider a nonlinear observation process with additional unknown parameters, and highlight how the approach handles unobserved states and unevenly spaced observations. The methodology developed is generally applicable to problems of estimation for differential equation models with delays, unobserved states, nonlinear observation processes, and partially observed histories. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Automatic inference of indexing rules for MEDLINE

PubMed Central

Névéol, Aurélie; Shooshan, Sonya E; Claveau, Vincent

2008-01-01

Background: Indexing is a crucial step in any information retrieval system. In MEDLINE, a widely used database of the biomedical literature, the indexing process involves the selection of Medical Subject Headings in order to describe the subject matter of articles. The need for automatic tools to assist MEDLINE indexers in this task is growing with the increasing number of publications being added to MEDLINE. Methods: In this paper, we describe the use and the customization of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) to infer indexing rules that may be used to produce automatic indexing recommendations for MEDLINE indexers. Results: Our results show that this original ILP-based approach outperforms manual rules when they exist. In addition, the use of ILP rules also improves the overall performance of the Medical Text Indexer (MTI), a system producing automatic indexing recommendations for MEDLINE. Conclusion: We expect the sets of ILP rules obtained in this experiment to be integrated into MTI. PMID:19025687

Automatic inference of indexing rules for MEDLINE.

PubMed

Névéol, Aurélie; Shooshan, Sonya E; Claveau, Vincent

2008-11-19

Indexing is a crucial step in any information retrieval system. In MEDLINE, a widely used database of the biomedical literature, the indexing process involves the selection of Medical Subject Headings in order to describe the subject matter of articles. The need for automatic tools to assist MEDLINE indexers in this task is growing with the increasing number of publications being added to MEDLINE. In this paper, we describe the use and the customization of Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) to infer indexing rules that may be used to produce automatic indexing recommendations for MEDLINE indexers. Our results show that this original ILP-based approach outperforms manual rules when they exist. In addition, the use of ILP rules also improves the overall performance of the Medical Text Indexer (MTI), a system producing automatic indexing recommendations for MEDLINE. We expect the sets of ILP rules obtained in this experiment to be integrated into MTI.

Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Prediction of Neutron Yield of IR-IECF Facility in High Voltages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adineh-Vand, A.; Torabi, M.; Roshani, G. H.; Taghipour, M.; Feghhi, S. A. H.; Rezaei, M.; Sadati, S. M.

2013-09-01

This paper presents a soft computing based artificial intelligent technique, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to predict the neutron production rate (NPR) of IR-IECF device in wide discharge current and voltage ranges. A hybrid learning algorithm consists of back-propagation and least-squares estimation is used for training the ANFIS model. The performance of the proposed ANFIS model is tested using the experimental data using four performance measures: correlation coefficient, mean absolute error, mean relative error percentage (MRE%) and root mean square error. The obtained results show that the proposed ANFIS model has achieved good agreement with the experimental results. In comparison to the experimental data the proposed ANFIS model has MRE% <1.53 and 2.85 % for training and testing data respectively. Therefore, this model can be used as an efficient tool to predict the NPR in the IR-IECF device.

Application of Transformations in Parametric Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brownstein, Naomi; Pensky, Marianna

2008-01-01

The objective of the present paper is to provide a simple approach to statistical inference using the method of transformations of variables. We demonstrate performance of this powerful tool on examples of constructions of various estimation procedures, hypothesis testing, Bayes analysis and statistical inference for the stress-strength systems.…

Model authoring system for fail safe analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sikora, Scott E.

1990-01-01

The Model Authoring System is a prototype software application for generating fault tree analyses and failure mode and effects analyses for circuit designs. Utilizing established artificial intelligence and expert system techniques, the circuits are modeled as a frame-based knowledge base in an expert system shell, which allows the use of object oriented programming and an inference engine. The behavior of the circuit is then captured through IF-THEN rules, which then are searched to generate either a graphical fault tree analysis or failure modes and effects analysis. Sophisticated authoring techniques allow the circuit to be easily modeled, permit its behavior to be quickly defined, and provide abstraction features to deal with complexity.

A machine independent expert system for diagnosing environmentally induced spacecraft anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rolincik, Mark J.

1991-01-01

A new rule-based, machine independent analytical tool for diagnosing spacecraft anomalies, the EnviroNET expert system, was developed. Expert systems provide an effective method for storing knowledge, allow computers to sift through large amounts of data pinpointing significant parts, and most importantly, use heuristics in addition to algorithms which allow approximate reasoning and inference, and the ability to attack problems not rigidly defines. The EviroNET expert system knowledge base currently contains over two hundred rules, and links to databases which include past environmental data, satellite data, and previous known anomalies. The environmental causes considered are bulk charging, single event upsets (SEU), surface charging, and total radiation dose.

Using Answer Set Programming to Integrate RNA Expression with Signalling Pathway Information to Infer How Mutations Affect Ageing

PubMed Central

Papatheodorou, Irene; Ziehm, Matthias; Wieser, Daniela; Alic, Nazif; Partridge, Linda; Thornton, Janet M.

2012-01-01

A challenge of systems biology is to integrate incomplete knowledge on pathways with existing experimental data sets and relate these to measured phenotypes. Research on ageing often generates such incomplete data, creating difficulties in integrating RNA expression with information about biological processes and the phenotypes of ageing, including longevity. Here, we develop a logic-based method that employs Answer Set Programming, and use it to infer signalling effects of genetic perturbations, based on a model of the insulin signalling pathway. We apply our method to RNA expression data from Drosophila mutants in the insulin pathway that alter lifespan, in a foxo dependent fashion. We use this information to deduce how the pathway influences lifespan in the mutant animals. We also develop a method for inferring the largest common sub-paths within each of our signalling predictions. Our comparisons reveal consistent homeostatic mechanisms across both long- and short-lived mutants. The transcriptional changes observed in each mutation usually provide negative feedback to signalling predicted for that mutation. We also identify an S6K-mediated feedback in two long-lived mutants that suggests a crosstalk between these pathways in mutants of the insulin pathway, in vivo. By formulating the problem as a logic-based theory in a qualitative fashion, we are able to use the efficient search facilities of Answer Set Programming, allowing us to explore larger pathways, combine molecular changes with pathways and phenotype and infer effects on signalling in in vivo, whole-organism, mutants, where direct signalling stimulation assays are difficult to perform. Our methods are available in the web-service NetEffects: http://www.ebi.ac.uk/thornton-srv/software/NetEffects. PMID:23251396

Using answer set programming to integrate RNA expression with signalling pathway information to infer how mutations affect ageing.

PubMed

Papatheodorou, Irene; Ziehm, Matthias; Wieser, Daniela; Alic, Nazif; Partridge, Linda; Thornton, Janet M

2012-01-01

A challenge of systems biology is to integrate incomplete knowledge on pathways with existing experimental data sets and relate these to measured phenotypes. Research on ageing often generates such incomplete data, creating difficulties in integrating RNA expression with information about biological processes and the phenotypes of ageing, including longevity. Here, we develop a logic-based method that employs Answer Set Programming, and use it to infer signalling effects of genetic perturbations, based on a model of the insulin signalling pathway. We apply our method to RNA expression data from Drosophila mutants in the insulin pathway that alter lifespan, in a foxo dependent fashion. We use this information to deduce how the pathway influences lifespan in the mutant animals. We also develop a method for inferring the largest common sub-paths within each of our signalling predictions. Our comparisons reveal consistent homeostatic mechanisms across both long- and short-lived mutants. The transcriptional changes observed in each mutation usually provide negative feedback to signalling predicted for that mutation. We also identify an S6K-mediated feedback in two long-lived mutants that suggests a crosstalk between these pathways in mutants of the insulin pathway, in vivo. By formulating the problem as a logic-based theory in a qualitative fashion, we are able to use the efficient search facilities of Answer Set Programming, allowing us to explore larger pathways, combine molecular changes with pathways and phenotype and infer effects on signalling in in vivo, whole-organism, mutants, where direct signalling stimulation assays are difficult to perform. Our methods are available in the web-service NetEffects: http://www.ebi.ac.uk/thornton-srv/software/NetEffects.

Features analysis of five-element theory and its basal effects on construction of visceral manifestation theory.

PubMed

Ma, Zimi; Jia, Chunhua; Guo, Jin; Gu, Haorong; Miao, Yanhuan

2014-02-01

To study the Chinese ancient five-element theory, one of the philosophical foundations of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) theory construction, from the perspective of comtemporary cognitive science, and to reveal the important functions of five-element theory in the construction of TCM theory. The basic effects of five-element theory in the construction of TCM theory are intensively expounded and proved from the following aspects: embodiment of five-element theory in cognizing the world, quasi axiom of five-element theory in essence, classification thery of family resemblance and deductive inference pattern of five-element theory, and the openness and expansibility of five-element theory. If five-element theory is considered a cognitive pattern or cognitive system related to culture, then there should be features of cognitive embodiment in the cognitive system. If five-element theory is regarded as a symbolic system, however, then there should be a quasi-axiom for the system, and inferential deduction. If, however, five-element theory is taken as a theoretical constructive metaphor, then there should be features of opening and expansibility for the metaphor. Based on five-element theory, this study provides a cognitive frame for the construction of TCM (a medicine that originated in China, and is characterized by holism and treatment based on pattern identification differentiation) theory with the function of constructing a concept base, thereby implying further research strategies. Useful information may be produced from the creative inferences obtained from the incorporation of five-element theory.

SIRE: A Simple Interactive Rule Editor for NICBES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bykat, Alex

1988-01-01

To support evolution of domain expertise, and its representation in an expert system knowledge base, a user-friendly rule base editor is mandatory. The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System (NICBES), a prototype of an expert system for the Hubble Space Telescope power storage management system, does not provide such an editor. In the following, a description of a Simple Interactive Rule Base Editor (SIRE) for NICBES is described. The SIRE provides a consistent internal representation of the NICBES knowledge base. It supports knowledge presentation and provides a user-friendly and code language independent medium for rule addition and modification. The SIRE is integrated with NICBES via an interface module. This module provides translation of the internal representation to Prolog-type rules (Horn clauses), latter rule assertion, and a simple mechanism for rule selection for its Prolog inference engine.

Rethinking fast and slow based on a critique of reaction-time reverse inference

PubMed Central

Krajbich, Ian; Bartling, Björn; Hare, Todd; Fehr, Ernst

2015-01-01

Do people intuitively favour certain actions over others? In some dual-process research, reaction-time (RT) data have been used to infer that certain choices are intuitive. However, the use of behavioural or biological measures to infer mental function, popularly known as ‘reverse inference', is problematic because it does not take into account other sources of variability in the data, such as discriminability of the choice options. Here we use two example data sets obtained from value-based choice experiments to demonstrate that, after controlling for discriminability (that is, strength-of-preference), there is no evidence that one type of choice is systematically faster than the other. Moreover, using specific variations of a prominent value-based choice experiment, we are able to predictably replicate, eliminate or reverse previously reported correlations between RT and selfishness. Thus, our findings shed crucial light on the use of RT in inferring mental processes and strongly caution against using RT differences as evidence favouring dual-process accounts. PMID:26135809

Rethinking fast and slow based on a critique of reaction-time reverse inference.

PubMed

Krajbich, Ian; Bartling, Björn; Hare, Todd; Fehr, Ernst

2015-07-02

Do people intuitively favour certain actions over others? In some dual-process research, reaction-time (RT) data have been used to infer that certain choices are intuitive. However, the use of behavioural or biological measures to infer mental function, popularly known as 'reverse inference', is problematic because it does not take into account other sources of variability in the data, such as discriminability of the choice options. Here we use two example data sets obtained from value-based choice experiments to demonstrate that, after controlling for discriminability (that is, strength-of-preference), there is no evidence that one type of choice is systematically faster than the other. Moreover, using specific variations of a prominent value-based choice experiment, we are able to predictably replicate, eliminate or reverse previously reported correlations between RT and selfishness. Thus, our findings shed crucial light on the use of RT in inferring mental processes and strongly caution against using RT differences as evidence favouring dual-process accounts.

An ontology for Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) to infer ASD phenotypes from Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised data.

PubMed

Mugzach, Omri; Peleg, Mor; Bagley, Steven C; Guter, Stephen J; Cook, Edwin H; Altman, Russ B

2015-08-01

Our goal is to create an ontology that will allow data integration and reasoning with subject data to classify subjects, and based on this classification, to infer new knowledge on Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and related neurodevelopmental disorders (NDD). We take a first step toward this goal by extending an existing autism ontology to allow automatic inference of ASD phenotypes and Diagnostic & Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) criteria based on subjects' Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADI-R) assessment data. Knowledge regarding diagnostic instruments, ASD phenotypes and risk factors was added to augment an existing autism ontology via Ontology Web Language class definitions and semantic web rules. We developed a custom Protégé plugin for enumerating combinatorial OWL axioms to support the many-to-many relations of ADI-R items to diagnostic categories in the DSM. We utilized a reasoner to infer whether 2642 subjects, whose data was obtained from the Simons Foundation Autism Research Initiative, meet DSM-IV-TR (DSM-IV) and DSM-5 diagnostic criteria based on their ADI-R data. We extended the ontology by adding 443 classes and 632 rules that represent phenotypes, along with their synonyms, environmental risk factors, and frequency of comorbidities. Applying the rules on the data set showed that the method produced accurate results: the true positive and true negative rates for inferring autistic disorder diagnosis according to DSM-IV criteria were 1 and 0.065, respectively; the true positive rate for inferring ASD based on DSM-5 criteria was 0.94. The ontology allows automatic inference of subjects' disease phenotypes and diagnosis with high accuracy. The ontology may benefit future studies by serving as a knowledge base for ASD. In addition, by adding knowledge of related NDDs, commonalities and differences in manifestations and risk factors could be automatically inferred, contributing to the understanding of ASD pathophysiology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using GIS to generate spatially balanced random survey designs for natural resource applications.

PubMed

Theobald, David M; Stevens, Don L; White, Denis; Urquhart, N Scott; Olsen, Anthony R; Norman, John B

2007-07-01

Sampling of a population is frequently required to understand trends and patterns in natural resource management because financial and time constraints preclude a complete census. A rigorous probability-based survey design specifies where to sample so that inferences from the sample apply to the entire population. Probability survey designs should be used in natural resource and environmental management situations because they provide the mathematical foundation for statistical inference. Development of long-term monitoring designs demand survey designs that achieve statistical rigor and are efficient but remain flexible to inevitable logistical or practical constraints during field data collection. Here we describe an approach to probability-based survey design, called the Reversed Randomized Quadrant-Recursive Raster, based on the concept of spatially balanced sampling and implemented in a geographic information system. This provides environmental managers a practical tool to generate flexible and efficient survey designs for natural resource applications. Factors commonly used to modify sampling intensity, such as categories, gradients, or accessibility, can be readily incorporated into the spatially balanced sample design.

A knowledge based software engineering environment testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gill, C.; Reedy, A.; Baker, L.

1985-01-01

The Carnegie Group Incorporated and Boeing Computer Services Company are developing a testbed which will provide a framework for integrating conventional software engineering tools with Artifical Intelligence (AI) tools to promote automation and productivity. The emphasis is on the transfer of AI technology to the software development process. Experiments relate to AI issues such as scaling up, inference, and knowledge representation. In its first year, the project has created a model of software development by representing software activities; developed a module representation formalism to specify the behavior and structure of software objects; integrated the model with the formalism to identify shared representation and inheritance mechanisms; demonstrated object programming by writing procedures and applying them to software objects; used data-directed and goal-directed reasoning to, respectively, infer the cause of bugs and evaluate the appropriateness of a configuration; and demonstrated knowledge-based graphics. Future plans include introduction of knowledge-based systems for rapid prototyping or rescheduling; natural language interfaces; blackboard architecture; and distributed processing

Logic Programming as an Inference Engine for Non-Monotonic Reasoning

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-11-11

Mathematical Sciences . ... University of Texas at El Paso AdI!ar, El Pazo , TX 79968-0514 [ A , (teodor math.ep.utexas.edu) Dist November 11, 1991 Title...Przymusinska, L. Pereira and D.S. Warren. Significant progress has been made towards both theoretical and algorithmic foundations of a non-monotonic...reasoning system based on logic programming. An implementation of such a system, limited to circumscrip- tive thoories, has been also completed. 14

The development of variable MLM editor and TSQL translator based on Arden Syntax in Taiwan.

PubMed

Liang, Yan Ching; Chang, Polun

2003-01-01

The Arden Syntax standard has been utilized in the medical informatics community in several countries during the past decade. It is never used in nursing in Taiwan. We try to develop a system that acquire medical expert knowledge in Chinese and translates data and logic slot into TSQL Language. The system implements TSQL translator interpreting database queries referred to in the knowledge modules. The decision-support systems in medicine are data driven system where TSQL triggers as inference engine can be used to facilitate linking to a database.

Semantics-based plausible reasoning to extend the knowledge coverage of medical knowledge bases for improved clinical decision support.

PubMed

Mohammadhassanzadeh, Hossein; Van Woensel, William; Abidi, Samina Raza; Abidi, Syed Sibte Raza

2017-01-01

Capturing complete medical knowledge is challenging-often due to incomplete patient Electronic Health Records (EHR), but also because of valuable, tacit medical knowledge hidden away in physicians' experiences. To extend the coverage of incomplete medical knowledge-based systems beyond their deductive closure, and thus enhance their decision-support capabilities, we argue that innovative, multi-strategy reasoning approaches should be applied. In particular, plausible reasoning mechanisms apply patterns from human thought processes, such as generalization, similarity and interpolation, based on attributional, hierarchical, and relational knowledge. Plausible reasoning mechanisms include inductive reasoning , which generalizes the commonalities among the data to induce new rules, and analogical reasoning , which is guided by data similarities to infer new facts. By further leveraging rich, biomedical Semantic Web ontologies to represent medical knowledge, both known and tentative, we increase the accuracy and expressivity of plausible reasoning, and cope with issues such as data heterogeneity, inconsistency and interoperability. In this paper, we present a Semantic Web-based, multi-strategy reasoning approach, which integrates deductive and plausible reasoning and exploits Semantic Web technology to solve complex clinical decision support queries. We evaluated our system using a real-world medical dataset of patients with hepatitis, from which we randomly removed different percentages of data (5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%) to reflect scenarios with increasing amounts of incomplete medical knowledge. To increase the reliability of the results, we generated 5 independent datasets for each percentage of missing values, which resulted in 20 experimental datasets (in addition to the original dataset). The results show that plausibly inferred knowledge extends the coverage of the knowledge base by, on average, 2%, 7%, 12%, and 16% for datasets with, respectively, 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% of missing values. This expansion in the KB coverage allowed solving complex disease diagnostic queries that were previously unresolvable, without losing the correctness of the answers. However, compared to deductive reasoning, data-intensive plausible reasoning mechanisms yield a significant performance overhead. We observed that plausible reasoning approaches, by generating tentative inferences and leveraging domain knowledge of experts, allow us to extend the coverage of medical knowledge bases, resulting in improved clinical decision support. Second, by leveraging OWL ontological knowledge, we are able to increase the expressivity and accuracy of plausible reasoning methods. Third, our approach is applicable to clinical decision support systems for a range of chronic diseases.

Initial Evaluation of Signal-Based Bayesian Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, D.; Russell, S.

2016-12-01

We present SIGVISA (Signal-based Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis), a next-generation system for global seismic monitoring through Bayesian inference on seismic signals. Traditional seismic monitoring systems rely on discrete detections produced by station processing software, discarding significant information present in the original recorded signal. By modeling signals directly, our forward model is able to incorporate a rich representation of the physics underlying the signal generation process, including source mechanisms, wave propagation, and station response. This allows inference in the model to recover the qualitative behavior of geophysical methods including waveform matching and double-differencing, all as part of a unified Bayesian monitoring system that simultaneously detects and locates events from a network of stations. We report results from an evaluation of SIGVISA monitoring the western United States for a two-week period following the magnitude 6.0 event in Wells, NV in February 2008. During this period, SIGVISA detects more than twice as many events as NETVISA, and three times as many as SEL3, while operating at the same precision; at lower precisions it detects up to five times as many events as SEL3. At the same time, signal-based monitoring reduces mean location errors by a factor of four relative to detection-based systems. We provide evidence that, given only IMS data, SIGVISA detects events that are missed by regional monitoring networks, indicating that our evaluations may even underestimate its performance. Finally, SIGVISA matches or exceeds the detection rates of existing systems for de novo events - events with no nearby historical seismicity - and detects through automated processing a number of such events missed even by the human analysts generating the LEB.

Segmentation method of eye region based on fuzzy logic system for classifying open and closed eyes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ki Wan; Lee, Won Oh; Kim, Yeong Gon; Hong, Hyung Gil; Lee, Eui Chul; Park, Kang Ryoung

2015-03-01

The classification of eye openness and closure has been researched in various fields, e.g., driver drowsiness detection, physiological status analysis, and eye fatigue measurement. For a classification with high accuracy, accurate segmentation of the eye region is required. Most previous research used the segmentation method by image binarization on the basis that the eyeball is darker than skin, but the performance of this approach is frequently affected by thick eyelashes or shadows around the eye. Thus, we propose a fuzzy-based method for classifying eye openness and closure. First, the proposed method uses I and K color information from the HSI and CMYK color spaces, respectively, for eye segmentation. Second, the eye region is binarized using the fuzzy logic system based on I and K inputs, which is less affected by eyelashes and shadows around the eye. The combined image of I and K pixels is obtained through the fuzzy logic system. Third, in order to reflect the effect by all the inference values on calculating the output score of the fuzzy system, we use the revised weighted average method, where all the rectangular regions by all the inference values are considered for calculating the output score. Fourth, the classification of eye openness or closure is successfully made by the proposed fuzzy-based method with eye images of low resolution which are captured in the environment of people watching TV at a distance. By using the fuzzy logic system, our method does not require the additional procedure of training irrespective of the chosen database. Experimental results with two databases of eye images show that our method is superior to previous approaches.

An Ambulatory System for Gait Monitoring Based on Wireless Sensorized Insoles

PubMed Central

González, Iván; Fontecha, Jesús; Hervás, Ramón; Bravo, José

2015-01-01

A new gait phase detection system for continuous monitoring based on wireless sensorized insoles is presented. The system can be used in gait analysis mobile applications, and it is designed for real-time demarcation of gait phases. The system employs pressure sensors to assess the force exerted by each foot during walking. A fuzzy rule-based inference algorithm is implemented on a smartphone and used to detect each of the gait phases based on the sensor signals. Additionally, to provide a solution that is insensitive to perturbations caused by non-walking activities, a probabilistic classifier is employed to discriminate walking forward from other low-level activities, such as turning, walking backwards, lateral walking, etc. The combination of these two algorithms constitutes the first approach towards a continuous gait assessment system, by means of the avoidance of non-walking influences. PMID:26184199

Qualitative reasoning for biological network inference from systematic perturbation experiments.

PubMed

Badaloni, Silvana; Di Camillo, Barbara; Sambo, Francesco

2012-01-01

The systematic perturbation of the components of a biological system has been proven among the most informative experimental setups for the identification of causal relations between the components. In this paper, we present Systematic Perturbation-Qualitative Reasoning (SPQR), a novel Qualitative Reasoning approach to automate the interpretation of the results of systematic perturbation experiments. Our method is based on a qualitative abstraction of the experimental data: for each perturbation experiment, measured values of the observed variables are modeled as lower, equal or higher than the measurements in the wild type condition, when no perturbation is applied. The algorithm exploits a set of IF-THEN rules to infer causal relations between the variables, analyzing the patterns of propagation of the perturbation signals through the biological network, and is specifically designed to minimize the rate of false positives among the inferred relations. Tested on both simulated and real perturbation data, SPQR indeed exhibits a significantly higher precision than the state of the art.

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Interoceptive inference: From computational neuroscience to clinic.

PubMed

Owens, Andrew P; Allen, Micah; Ondobaka, Sasha; Friston, Karl J

2018-04-22

The central and autonomic nervous systems can be defined by their anatomical, functional and neurochemical characteristics, but neither functions in isolation. For example, fundamental components of autonomically mediated homeostatic processes are afferent interoceptive signals reporting the internal state of the body and efferent signals acting on interoceptive feedback assimilated by the brain. Recent predictive coding (interoceptive inference) models formulate interoception in terms of embodied predictive processes that support emotion and selfhood. We propose interoception may serve as a way to investigate holistic nervous system function and dysfunction in disorders of brain, body and behaviour. We appeal to predictive coding and (active) interoceptive inference, to describe the homeostatic functions of the central and autonomic nervous systems. We do so by (i) reviewing the active inference formulation of interoceptive and autonomic function, (ii) survey clinical applications of this formulation and (iii) describe how it offers an integrative approach to human physiology; particularly, interactions between the central and peripheral nervous systems in health and disease. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Econophysical visualization of Adam Smith’s invisible hand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Morrel H.; Eliazar, Iddo I.

2013-02-01

Consider a complex system whose macrostate is statistically observable, but yet whose operating mechanism is an unknown black-box. In this paper we address the problem of inferring, from the system’s macrostate statistics, the system’s intrinsic force yielding the observed statistics. The inference is established via two diametrically opposite approaches which result in the very same intrinsic force: a top-down approach based on the notion of entropy, and a bottom-up approach based on the notion of Langevin dynamics. The general results established are applied to the problem of visualizing the intrinsic socioeconomic force-Adam Smith’s invisible hand-shaping the distribution of wealth in human societies. Our analysis yields quantitative econophysical representations of figurative socioeconomic forces, quantitative definitions of “poor” and “rich”, and a quantitative characterization of the “poor-get-poorer” and the “rich-get-richer” phenomena.

Metainference: A Bayesian inference method for heterogeneous systems

PubMed Central

Bonomi, Massimiliano; Camilloni, Carlo; Cavalli, Andrea; Vendruscolo, Michele

2016-01-01

Modeling a complex system is almost invariably a challenging task. The incorporation of experimental observations can be used to improve the quality of a model and thus to obtain better predictions about the behavior of the corresponding system. This approach, however, is affected by a variety of different errors, especially when a system simultaneously populates an ensemble of different states and experimental data are measured as averages over such states. To address this problem, we present a Bayesian inference method, called “metainference,” that is able to deal with errors in experimental measurements and with experimental measurements averaged over multiple states. To achieve this goal, metainference models a finite sample of the distribution of models using a replica approach, in the spirit of the replica-averaging modeling based on the maximum entropy principle. To illustrate the method, we present its application to a heterogeneous model system and to the determination of an ensemble of structures corresponding to the thermal fluctuations of a protein molecule. Metainference thus provides an approach to modeling complex systems with heterogeneous components and interconverting between different states by taking into account all possible sources of errors. PMID:26844300

Fetal ECG extraction via Type-2 adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems.

PubMed

Ahmadieh, Hajar; Asl, Babak Mohammadzadeh

2017-04-01

We proposed a noninvasive method for separating the fetal ECG (FECG) from maternal ECG (MECG) by using Type-2 adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems. The method can extract FECG components from abdominal signal by using one abdominal channel, including maternal and fetal cardiac signals and other environmental noise signals, and one chest channel. The proposed algorithm detects the nonlinear dynamics of the mother's body. So, the components of the MECG are estimated from the abdominal signal. By subtracting estimated mother cardiac signal from abdominal signal, fetal cardiac signal can be extracted. This algorithm was applied on synthetic ECG signals generated based on the models developed by McSharry et al. and Behar et al. and also on DaISy real database. In environments with high uncertainty, our method performs better than the Type-1 fuzzy method. Specifically, in evaluation of the algorithm with the synthetic data based on McSharry model, for input signals with SNR of -5dB, the SNR of the extracted FECG was improved by 38.38% in comparison with the Type-1 fuzzy method. Also, the results show that increasing the uncertainty or decreasing the input SNR leads to increasing the percentage of the improvement in SNR of the extracted FECG. For instance, when the SNR of the input signal decreases to -30dB, our proposed algorithm improves the SNR of the extracted FECG by 71.06% with respect to the Type-1 fuzzy method. The same results were obtained on synthetic data based on Behar model. Our results on real database reflect the success of the proposed method to separate the maternal and fetal heart signals even if their waves overlap in time. Moreover, the proposed algorithm was applied to the simulated fetal ECG with ectopic beats and achieved good results in separating FECG from MECG. The results show the superiority of the proposed Type-2 neuro-fuzzy inference method over the Type-1 neuro-fuzzy inference and the polynomial networks methods, which is due to its capability to capture the nonlinearities of the model better. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advances in the continuous monitoring of erosion and deposition dynamics: Developments and applications of the new PEEP-3T system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawler, D. M.

2008-01-01

In most episodic erosion and deposition systems, knowledge of the timing of geomorphological change, in relation to fluctuations in the driving forces, is crucial to strong erosion process inference, and model building, validation and development. A challenge for geomorphology, however, is that few studies have focused on geomorphological event structure (timing, magnitude, frequency and duration of individual erosion and deposition events), in relation to applied stresses, because of the absence of key monitoring methodologies. This paper therefore (a) presents full details of a new erosion and deposition measurement system — PEEP-3T — developed from the Photo-Electronic Erosion Pin sensor in five key areas, including the addition of nocturnal monitoring through the integration of the Thermal Consonance Timing (TCT) concept, to produce a continuous sensing system; (b) presents novel high-resolution datasets from the redesigned PEEP-3T system for river bank system of the Rivers Nidd and Wharfe, northern England, UK; and (c) comments on their potential for wider application throughout geomorphology to address these key measurement challenges. Relative to manual methods of erosion and deposition quantification, continuous PEEP-3T methodologies increase the temporal resolution of erosion/deposition event detection by more than three orders of magnitude (better than 1-second resolution if required), and this facility can significantly enhance process inference. Results show that river banks are highly dynamic thermally and respond quickly to radiation inputs. Data on bank retreat timing, fixed with PEEP-3T TCT evidence, confirmed that they were significantly delayed up to 55 h after flood peaks. One event occurred 13 h after emergence from the flow. This suggests that mass failure processes rather than fluid entrainment dominated the system. It is also shown how, by integrating turbidity instrumentation with TCT ideas, linkages between sediment supply and sediment flux can be forged at event timescales, and a lack of sediment exhaustion was evident here. Five challenges for wider geomorphological process investigation are discussed. This event-based dynamics approach, based on continuous monitoring methodologies, appears to have considerable wider potential for stronger process inference and model testing and validation in many areas of geomorphology.

Integrating Transcriptomic and Proteomic Data Using Predictive Regulatory Network Models of Host Response to Pathogens

PubMed Central

Chasman, Deborah; Walters, Kevin B.; Lopes, Tiago J. S.; Eisfeld, Amie J.; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro; Roy, Sushmita

2016-01-01

Mammalian host response to pathogenic infections is controlled by a complex regulatory network connecting regulatory proteins such as transcription factors and signaling proteins to target genes. An important challenge in infectious disease research is to understand molecular similarities and differences in mammalian host response to diverse sets of pathogens. Recently, systems biology studies have produced rich collections of omic profiles measuring host response to infectious agents such as influenza viruses at multiple levels. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the regulatory network driving host response to multiple infectious agents, we integrated host transcriptomes and proteomes using a network-based approach. Our approach combines expression-based regulatory network inference, structured-sparsity based regression, and network information flow to infer putative physical regulatory programs for expression modules. We applied our approach to identify regulatory networks, modules and subnetworks that drive host response to multiple influenza infections. The inferred regulatory network and modules are significantly enriched for known pathways of immune response and implicate apoptosis, splicing, and interferon signaling processes in the differential response of viral infections of different pathogenicities. We used the learned network to prioritize regulators and study virus and time-point specific networks. RNAi-based knockdown of predicted regulators had significant impact on viral replication and include several previously unknown regulators. Taken together, our integrated analysis identified novel module level patterns that capture strain and pathogenicity-specific patterns of expression and helped identify important regulators of host response to influenza infection. PMID:27403523

A knowledge-base generating hierarchical fuzzy-neural controller.

PubMed

Kandadai, R M; Tien, J M

1997-01-01

We present an innovative fuzzy-neural architecture that is able to automatically generate a knowledge base, in an extractable form, for use in hierarchical knowledge-based controllers. The knowledge base is in the form of a linguistic rule base appropriate for a fuzzy inference system. First, we modify Berenji and Khedkar's (1992) GARIC architecture to enable it to automatically generate a knowledge base; a pseudosupervised learning scheme using reinforcement learning and error backpropagation is employed. Next, we further extend this architecture to a hierarchical controller that is able to generate its own knowledge base. Example applications are provided to underscore its viability.

An inference method from multi-layered structure of biomedical data.

PubMed

Kim, Myungjun; Nam, Yonghyun; Shin, Hyunjung

2017-05-18

Biological system is a multi-layered structure of omics with genome, epigenome, transcriptome, metabolome, proteome, etc., and can be further stretched to clinical/medical layers such as diseasome, drugs, and symptoms. One advantage of omics is that we can figure out an unknown component or its trait by inferring from known omics components. The component can be inferred by the ones in the same level of omics or the ones in different levels. To implement the inference process, an algorithm that can be applied to the multi-layered complex system is required. In this study, we develop a semi-supervised learning algorithm that can be applied to the multi-layered complex system. In order to verify the validity of the inference, it was applied to the prediction problem of disease co-occurrence with a two-layered network composed of symptom-layer and disease-layer. The symptom-disease layered network obtained a fairly high value of AUC, 0.74, which is regarded as noticeable improvement when comparing 0.59 AUC of single-layered disease network. If further stretched to whole layered structure of omics, the proposed method is expected to produce more promising results. This research has novelty in that it is a new integrative algorithm that incorporates the vertical structure of omics data, on contrary to other existing methods that integrate the data in parallel fashion. The results can provide enhanced guideline for disease co-occurrence prediction, thereby serve as a valuable tool for inference process of multi-layered biological system.

An Adaptive Coordinated Control for an Offshore Wind Farm Connected VSC Based Multi-Terminal DC Transmission System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, M. Ajay; Srikanth, N. V.

2015-01-01

The voltage source converter (VSC) based multiterminal high voltage direct current (MTDC) transmission system is an interesting technical option to integrate offshore wind farms with the onshore grid due to its unique performance characteristics and reduced power loss via extruded DC cables. In order to enhance the reliability and stability of the MTDC system, an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based coordinated control design has been addressed in this paper. A four terminal VSC-MTDC system which consists of an offshore wind farm and oil platform is implemented in MATLAB/ SimPowerSystems software. The proposed model is tested under different fault scenarios along with the converter outage and simulation results show that the novel coordinated control design has great dynamic stabilities and also the VSC-MTDC system can supply AC voltage of good quality to offshore loads during the disturbances.

Is awareness necessary for true inference?

PubMed

Leo, Peter D; Greene, Anthony J

2008-09-01

In transitive inference, participants learn a set of context-dependent discriminations that can be organized into a hierarchy that supports inference. Several studies show that inference occurs with or without task awareness. However, some studies assert that without awareness, performance is attributable to pseudoinference. By this account, inference-like performance is achieved by differential stimulus weighting according to the stimuli's proximity to the end items of the hierarchy. We implement an inference task that cannot be based on differential stimulus weighting. The design itself rules out pseudoinference strategies. Success on the task without evidence of deliberative strategies would therefore suggest that true inference can be achieved implicitly. We found that accurate performance on the inference task was not dependent on explicit awareness. The finding is consistent with a growing body of evidence that indicates that forms of learning and memory supporting inference and flexibility do not necessarily depend on task awareness.

A review on computational systems biology of pathogen–host interactions

PubMed Central

Durmuş, Saliha; Çakır, Tunahan; Özgür, Arzucan; Guthke, Reinhard

2015-01-01

Pathogens manipulate the cellular mechanisms of host organisms via pathogen–host interactions (PHIs) in order to take advantage of the capabilities of host cells, leading to infections. The crucial role of these interspecies molecular interactions in initiating and sustaining infections necessitates a thorough understanding of the corresponding mechanisms. Unlike the traditional approach of considering the host or pathogen separately, a systems-level approach, considering the PHI system as a whole is indispensable to elucidate the mechanisms of infection. Following the technological advances in the post-genomic era, PHI data have been produced in large-scale within the last decade. Systems biology-based methods for the inference and analysis of PHI regulatory, metabolic, and protein–protein networks to shed light on infection mechanisms are gaining increasing demand thanks to the availability of omics data. The knowledge derived from the PHIs may largely contribute to the identification of new and more efficient therapeutics to prevent or cure infections. There are recent efforts for the detailed documentation of these experimentally verified PHI data through Web-based databases. Despite these advances in data archiving, there are still large amounts of PHI data in the biomedical literature yet to be discovered, and novel text mining methods are in development to unearth such hidden data. Here, we review a collection of recent studies on computational systems biology of PHIs with a special focus on the methods for the inference and analysis of PHI networks, covering also the Web-based databases and text-mining efforts to unravel the data hidden in the literature. PMID:25914674

Causal learning and inference as a rational process: the new synthesis.

PubMed

Holyoak, Keith J; Cheng, Patricia W

2011-01-01

Over the past decade, an active line of research within the field of human causal learning and inference has converged on a general representational framework: causal models integrated with bayesian probabilistic inference. We describe this new synthesis, which views causal learning and inference as a fundamentally rational process, and review a sample of the empirical findings that support the causal framework over associative alternatives. Causal events, like all events in the distal world as opposed to our proximal perceptual input, are inherently unobservable. A central assumption of the causal approach is that humans (and potentially nonhuman animals) have been designed in such a way as to infer the most invariant causal relations for achieving their goals based on observed events. In contrast, the associative approach assumes that learners only acquire associations among important observed events, omitting the representation of the distal relations. By incorporating bayesian inference over distributions of causal strength and causal structures, along with noisy-logical (i.e., causal) functions for integrating the influences of multiple causes on a single effect, human judgments about causal strength and structure can be predicted accurately for relatively simple causal structures. Dynamic models of learning based on the causal framework can explain patterns of acquisition observed with serial presentation of contingency data and are consistent with available neuroimaging data. The approach has been extended to a diverse range of inductive tasks, including category-based and analogical inferences.

Generative Inferences Based on Learned Relations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Dawn; Lu, Hongjing; Holyoak, Keith J.

2017-01-01

A key property of relational representations is their "generativity": From partial descriptions of relations between entities, additional inferences can be drawn about other entities. A major theoretical challenge is to demonstrate how the capacity to make generative inferences could arise as a result of learning relations from…

Limited utility of residue masking for positive-selection inference.

PubMed

Spielman, Stephanie J; Dawson, Eric T; Wilke, Claus O

2014-09-01

Errors in multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) can reduce accuracy in positive-selection inference. Therefore, it has been suggested to filter MSAs before conducting further analyses. One widely used filter, Guidance, allows users to remove MSA positions aligned with low confidence. However, Guidance's utility in positive-selection inference has been disputed in the literature. We have conducted an extensive simulation-based study to characterize fully how Guidance impacts positive-selection inference, specifically for protein-coding sequences of realistic divergence levels. We also investigated whether novel scoring algorithms, which phylogenetically corrected confidence scores, and a new gap-penalization score-normalization scheme improved Guidance's performance. We found that no filter, including original Guidance, consistently benefitted positive-selection inferences. Moreover, all improvements detected were exceedingly minimal, and in certain circumstances, Guidance-based filters worsened inferences. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Three-dimensional modeling of the neutron spectrum to infer plasma conditions in cryogenic inertial confinement fusion implosions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weilacher, F.; Radha, P. B.; Forrest, C.

Neutron-based diagnostics are typically used to infer compressed core conditions such as areal density and ion temperature in deuterium–tritium (D–T) inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions. Asymmetries in the observed neutron-related quantities are important to understanding failure modes in these implosions. Neutrons from fusion reactions and their subsequent interactions including elastic scattering and neutron-induced deuteron breakup reactions are tracked to create spectra. Here, it is shown that background subtraction is important for inferring areal density from backscattered neutrons and is less important for the forward-scattered neutrons. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation of a cryogenic implosion on the OMEGA Laser System [T. R.more » Boehly et al., Opt. Commun. 133, 495 (1997)] using the hydrodynamic code HYDRA [M. M. Marinak et al., Phys. Plasmas 8, 2275 (2001)] is post-processed using the tracking code IRIS3D. It is shown that different parts of the neutron spectrum from the view can be mapped into different regions of the implosion, enabling an inference of an areal-density map. It is also shown that the average areal-density and an areal-density map of the compressed target can be reconstructed with a finite number of detectors placed around the target chamber. Ion temperatures are inferred from the width of the D–D and D–T fusion neutron spectra. Backgrounds can significantly alter the inferred ion temperatures from the D–D reaction, whereas they insignificantly influence the inferred D–T ion temperatures for the areal densities typical of OMEGA implosions. Asymmetries resulting in fluid flow in the core are shown to influence the absolute inferred ion temperatures from both reactions, although relative inferred values continue to reflect the underlying asymmetry pattern. The work presented here is part of the wide range of the first set of studies performed with IRIS3D. Finally, this code will continue to be used for post-processing detailed hydrodynamic simulations and interpreting observed neutron spectra in ICF implosions.« less

Three-dimensional modeling of the neutron spectrum to infer plasma conditions in cryogenic inertial confinement fusion implosions

DOE PAGES

Weilacher, F.; Radha, P. B.; Forrest, C.

2018-04-26

Neutron-based diagnostics are typically used to infer compressed core conditions such as areal density and ion temperature in deuterium–tritium (D–T) inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions. Asymmetries in the observed neutron-related quantities are important to understanding failure modes in these implosions. Neutrons from fusion reactions and their subsequent interactions including elastic scattering and neutron-induced deuteron breakup reactions are tracked to create spectra. Here, it is shown that background subtraction is important for inferring areal density from backscattered neutrons and is less important for the forward-scattered neutrons. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation of a cryogenic implosion on the OMEGA Laser System [T. R.more » Boehly et al., Opt. Commun. 133, 495 (1997)] using the hydrodynamic code HYDRA [M. M. Marinak et al., Phys. Plasmas 8, 2275 (2001)] is post-processed using the tracking code IRIS3D. It is shown that different parts of the neutron spectrum from the view can be mapped into different regions of the implosion, enabling an inference of an areal-density map. It is also shown that the average areal-density and an areal-density map of the compressed target can be reconstructed with a finite number of detectors placed around the target chamber. Ion temperatures are inferred from the width of the D–D and D–T fusion neutron spectra. Backgrounds can significantly alter the inferred ion temperatures from the D–D reaction, whereas they insignificantly influence the inferred D–T ion temperatures for the areal densities typical of OMEGA implosions. Asymmetries resulting in fluid flow in the core are shown to influence the absolute inferred ion temperatures from both reactions, although relative inferred values continue to reflect the underlying asymmetry pattern. The work presented here is part of the wide range of the first set of studies performed with IRIS3D. Finally, this code will continue to be used for post-processing detailed hydrodynamic simulations and interpreting observed neutron spectra in ICF implosions.« less

Feasibility of Using Expert Systems in Aquatic Plant Control

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-01

weather scenario. When Gossvm is finished , the inference engine examines the results of the run and places new facts into the facts base. One of the...the crop is mature that is its most valuable feature. I R I Kohei and C F Lesis. Eds.. Coton (American Societ. of Agronoms, In the previous vear (1984

Working Memory and Processing Efficiency in Children's Reasoning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halford, Graeme S.; And Others

A series of studies was conducted to determine whether children's reasoning is capacity-limited and whether any such capacity, if it exists, is based on the working memory system. An N-term series (transitive inference) was used as the primary task in an interference paradigm. A concurrent short-term memory load was employed as the secondary task.…

Inference on the Strength of Balancing Selection for Epistatically Interacting Loci

PubMed Central

Buzbas, Erkan Ozge; Joyce, Paul; Rosenberg, Noah A.

2011-01-01

Existing inference methods for estimating the strength of balancing selection in multi-locus genotypes rely on the assumption that there are no epistatic interactions between loci. Complex systems in which balancing selection is prevalent, such as sets of human immune system genes, are known to contain components that interact epistatically. Therefore, current methods may not produce reliable inference on the strength of selection at these loci. In this paper, we address this problem by presenting statistical methods that can account for epistatic interactions in making inference about balancing selection. A theoretical result due to Fearnhead (2006) is used to build a multi-locus Wright-Fisher model of balancing selection, allowing for epistatic interactions among loci. Antagonistic and synergistic types of interactions are examined. The joint posterior distribution of the selection and mutation parameters is sampled by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and the plausibility of models is assessed via Bayes factors. As a component of the inference process, an algorithm to generate multi-locus allele frequencies under balancing selection models with epistasis is also presented. Recent evidence on interactions among a set of human immune system genes is introduced as a motivating biological system for the epistatic model, and data on these genes are used to demonstrate the methods. PMID:21277883

Intelligent machines in the twenty-first century: foundations of inference and inquiry.

PubMed

Knuth, Kevin H

2003-12-15

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra to the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines, in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. Recent advances in our understanding of the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we recently identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which will now allow us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper, we examine the foundations of inference and inquiry. We begin with a history of inferential reasoning, highlighting key concepts that have led to the automation of inference in modern machine-learning systems. We then discuss the foundations of inference in more detail using a modern viewpoint that relies on the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory. This new viewpoint allows us to develop the logic of inquiry and introduce a measure describing the relevance of a proposed question to an unresolved issue. Last, we will demonstrate the automation of inference, and discuss how this new logic of inquiry will enable intelligent machines to ask questions. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them not only to make inferences from data, but also to decide which question to ask, which experiment to perform, or which measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

Intelligent machines in the twenty-first century: foundations of inference and inquiry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knuth, Kevin H.

2003-01-01

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra to the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines, in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. Recent advances in our understanding of the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we recently identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which will now allow us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper, we examine the foundations of inference and inquiry. We begin with a history of inferential reasoning, highlighting key concepts that have led to the automation of inference in modern machine-learning systems. We then discuss the foundations of inference in more detail using a modern viewpoint that relies on the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory. This new viewpoint allows us to develop the logic of inquiry and introduce a measure describing the relevance of a proposed question to an unresolved issue. Last, we will demonstrate the automation of inference, and discuss how this new logic of inquiry will enable intelligent machines to ask questions. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them not only to make inferences from data, but also to decide which question to ask, which experiment to perform, or which measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

An overview of expert systems. [artificial intelligence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, W. B.

1982-01-01

An expert system is defined and its basic structure is discussed. The knowledge base, the inference engine, and uses of expert systems are discussed. Architecture is considered, including choice of solution direction, reasoning in the presence of uncertainty, searching small and large search spaces, handling large search spaces by transforming them and by developing alternative or additional spaces, and dealing with time. Existing expert systems are reviewed. Tools for building such systems, construction, and knowledge acquisition and learning are discussed. Centers of research and funding sources are listed. The state-of-the-art, current problems, required research, and future trends are summarized.

Structure identification in fuzzy inference using reinforcement learning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berenji, Hamid R.; Khedkar, Pratap

1993-01-01

In our previous work on the GARIC architecture, we have shown that the system can start with surface structure of the knowledge base (i.e., the linguistic expression of the rules) and learn the deep structure (i.e., the fuzzy membership functions of the labels used in the rules) by using reinforcement learning. Assuming the surface structure, GARIC refines the fuzzy membership functions used in the consequents of the rules using a gradient descent procedure. This hybrid fuzzy logic and reinforcement learning approach can learn to balance a cart-pole system and to backup a truck to its docking location after a few trials. In this paper, we discuss how to do structure identification using reinforcement learning in fuzzy inference systems. This involves identifying both surface as well as deep structure of the knowledge base. The term set of fuzzy linguistic labels used in describing the values of each control variable must be derived. In this process, splitting a label refers to creating new labels which are more granular than the original label and merging two labels creates a more general label. Splitting and merging of labels directly transform the structure of the action selection network used in GARIC by increasing or decreasing the number of hidden layer nodes.

Identification of water quality management policy of watershed system with multiple uncertain interactions using a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming approach.

PubMed

Liu, Jing; Li, Yongping; Huang, Guohe; Fu, Haiyan; Zhang, Junlong; Cheng, Guanhui

2017-06-01

In this study, a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming (MRPP) method is proposed for supporting water quality management under multiple uncertainties. The MRPP method can handle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-random-boundary intervals, probability distributions, and interval numbers, and analyze the effects of uncertainties as well as their interactions on modeling outputs. It is applied to plan water quality management in the Xiangxihe watershed. Results reveal that a lower probability of satisfying the objective function (θ) as well as a higher probability of violating environmental constraints (q i ) would correspond to a higher system benefit with an increased risk of violating system feasibility. Chemical plants are the major contributors to biological oxygen demand (BOD) and total phosphorus (TP) discharges; total nitrogen (TN) would be mainly discharged by crop farming. It is also discovered that optimistic decision makers should pay more attention to the interactions between chemical plant and water supply, while decision makers who possess a risk-averse attitude would focus on the interactive effect of q i and benefit of water supply. The findings can help enhance the model's applicability and identify a suitable water quality management policy for environmental sustainability according to the practical situations.

Annual Rainfall Forecasting by Using Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fallah-Ghalhary, G.-A.; Habibi Nokhandan, M.; Mousavi Baygi, M.

2009-04-01

Long-term rainfall prediction is very important to countries thriving on agro-based economy. In general, climate and rainfall are highly non-linear phenomena in nature giving rise to what is known as "butterfly effect". The parameters that are required to predict the rainfall are enormous even for a short period. Soft computing is an innovative approach to construct computationally intelligent systems that are supposed to possess humanlike expertise within a specific domain, adapt themselves and learn to do better in changing environments, and explain how they make decisions. Unlike conventional artificial intelligence techniques the guiding principle of soft computing is to exploit tolerance for imprecision, uncertainty, robustness, partial truth to achieve tractability, and better rapport with reality. In this paper, 33 years of rainfall data analyzed in khorasan state, the northeastern part of Iran situated at latitude-longitude pairs (31°-38°N, 74°- 80°E). this research attempted to train Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) based prediction models with 33 years of rainfall data. For performance evaluation, the model predicted outputs were compared with the actual rainfall data. Simulation results reveal that soft computing techniques are promising and efficient. The test results using by FIS model showed that the RMSE was obtained 52 millimeter.

Assessment and prediction of air quality using fuzzy logic and autoregressive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carbajal-Hernández, José Juan; Sánchez-Fernández, Luis P.; Carrasco-Ochoa, Jesús A.; Martínez-Trinidad, José Fco.

2012-12-01

In recent years, artificial intelligence methods have been used for the treatment of environmental problems. This work, presents two models for assessment and prediction of air quality. First, we develop a new computational model for air quality assessment in order to evaluate toxic compounds that can harm sensitive people in urban areas, affecting their normal activities. In this model we propose to use a Sigma operator to statistically asses air quality parameters using their historical data information and determining their negative impact in air quality based on toxicity limits, frequency average and deviations of toxicological tests. We also introduce a fuzzy inference system to perform parameter classification using a reasoning process and integrating them in an air quality index describing the pollution levels in five stages: excellent, good, regular, bad and danger, respectively. The second model proposed in this work predicts air quality concentrations using an autoregressive model, providing a predicted air quality index based on the fuzzy inference system previously developed. Using data from Mexico City Atmospheric Monitoring System, we perform a comparison among air quality indices developed for environmental agencies and similar models. Our results show that our models are an appropriate tool for assessing site pollution and for providing guidance to improve contingency actions in urban areas.

A Methodology for Evaluating the Fidelity of Ground-Based Flight Simulators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeyada, Y.; Hess, R. A.

1999-01-01

An analytical and experimental investigation was undertaken to model the manner in which pilots perceive and utilize visual, proprioceptive, and vestibular cues in a ground-based flight simulator. The study was part of a larger research effort which has the creation of a methodology for determining flight simulator fidelity requirements as its ultimate goal. The study utilized a closed-loop feedback structure of the pilot/simulator system which included the pilot, the cockpit inceptor, the dynamics of the simulated vehicle and the motion system. With the exception of time delays which accrued in visual scene production in the simulator, visual scene effects were not included in this study. The NASA Ames Vertical Motion Simulator was used in a simple, single-degree of freedom rotorcraft bob-up/down maneuver. Pilot/vehicle analysis and fuzzy-inference identification were employed to study the changes in fidelity which occurred as the characteristics of the motion system were varied over five configurations i The data from three of the five pilots that participated in the experimental study were analyzed in the fuzzy inference identification. Results indicate that both the analytical pilot/vehicle analysis and the fuzzyinference identification can be used to reflect changes in simulator fidelity for the task examined.

Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system-based power estimation method for CMOS VLSI circuits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vellingiri, Govindaraj; Jayabalan, Ramesh

2018-03-01

Recent advancements in very large scale integration (VLSI) technologies have made it feasible to integrate millions of transistors on a single chip. This greatly increases the circuit complexity and hence there is a growing need for less-tedious and low-cost power estimation techniques. The proposed work employs Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), which are capable of estimating the power precisely for the complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) VLSI circuits, without requiring any knowledge on circuit structure and interconnections. The ANFIS to power estimation application is relatively new. Power estimation using ANFIS is carried out by creating initial FIS modes using hybrid optimisation and back-propagation (BP) techniques employing constant and linear methods. It is inferred that ANFIS with the hybrid optimisation technique employing the linear method produces better results in terms of testing error that varies from 0% to 0.86% when compared to BPNN as it takes the initial fuzzy model and tunes it by means of a hybrid technique combining gradient descent BP and mean least-squares optimisation algorithms. ANFIS is the best suited for power estimation application with a low RMSE of 0.0002075 and a high coefficient of determination (R) of 0.99961.

Prediction of drug synergy in cancer using ensemble-based machine learning techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Harpreet; Rana, Prashant Singh; Singh, Urvinder

2018-04-01

Drug synergy prediction plays a significant role in the medical field for inhibiting specific cancer agents. It can be developed as a pre-processing tool for therapeutic successes. Examination of different drug-drug interaction can be done by drug synergy score. It needs efficient regression-based machine learning approaches to minimize the prediction errors. Numerous machine learning techniques such as neural networks, support vector machines, random forests, LASSO, Elastic Nets, etc., have been used in the past to realize requirement as mentioned above. However, these techniques individually do not provide significant accuracy in drug synergy score. Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to design a neuro-fuzzy-based ensembling approach. To achieve this, nine well-known machine learning techniques have been implemented by considering the drug synergy data. Based on the accuracy of each model, four techniques with high accuracy are selected to develop ensemble-based machine learning model. These models are Random forest, Fuzzy Rules Using Genetic Cooperative-Competitive Learning method (GFS.GCCL), Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Dynamic Evolving Neural-Fuzzy Inference System method (DENFIS). Ensembling is achieved by evaluating the biased weighted aggregation (i.e. adding more weights to the model with a higher prediction score) of predicted data by selected models. The proposed and existing machine learning techniques have been evaluated on drug synergy score data. The comparative analysis reveals that the proposed method outperforms others in terms of accuracy, root mean square error and coefficient of correlation.

Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications.

PubMed

Ho, Lam Si Tung; Xu, Jason; Crawford, Forrest W; Minin, Vladimir N; Suchard, Marc A

2018-03-01

Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of efficient methods for evaluating finite-time transition probabilities of bivariate processes, however, has restricted statistical inference in these models. Researchers rely on computationally expensive methods such as matrix exponentiation or Monte Carlo approximation, restricting likelihood-based inference to small systems, or indirect methods such as approximate Bayesian computation. In this paper, we introduce the birth/birth-death process, a tractable bivariate extension of the birth-death process, where rates are allowed to be nonlinear. We develop an efficient algorithm to calculate its transition probabilities using a continued fraction representation of their Laplace transforms. Next, we identify several exemplary models arising in molecular epidemiology, macro-parasite evolution, and infectious disease modeling that fall within this class, and demonstrate advantages of our proposed method over existing approaches to inference in these models. Notably, the ubiquitous stochastic susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model falls within this class, and we emphasize that computable transition probabilities newly enable direct inference of parameters in the SIR model. We also propose a very fast method for approximating the transition probabilities under the SIR model via a novel branching process simplification, and compare it to the continued fraction representation method with application to the 17th century plague in Eyam. Although the two methods produce similar maximum a posteriori estimates, the branching process approximation fails to capture the correlation structure in the joint posterior distribution.

Principle-Based Inferences in Young Children's Categorization: Revisiting the Impact of Function on the Naming of Artifacts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Deborah G. Kemler

1995-01-01

Three studies investigated the influence of principle-based inferences and unprincipled similarity relations on new category learning by three- to six-year-old children. Results indicated that categorization into newly learned categories may activate self-initiated, principle-based reasoning in young children, suggesting that spontaneous…

Statistical inference for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation

Treesearch

Ronald E. McRoberts; Brian F. Walters

2012-01-01

Statistical inference requires expression of an estimate in probabilistic terms, usually in the form of a confidence interval. An approach to constructing confidence intervals for remote sensing-based estimates of net deforestation is illustrated. The approach is based on post-classification methods using two independent forest/non-forest classifications because...

An approach to combining heuristic and qualitative reasoning in an expert system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jiang, Wei-Si; Han, Chia Yung; Tsai, Lian Cheng; Wee, William G.

1988-01-01

An approach to combining the heuristic reasoning from shallow knowledge and the qualitative reasoning from deep knowledge is described. The shallow knowledge is represented in production rules and under the direct control of the inference engine. The deep knowledge is represented in frames, which may be put in a relational DataBase Management System. This approach takes advantage of both reasoning schemes and results in improved efficiency as well as expanded problem solving ability.

Contextual Information and Verifying Inferences from Conversations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dubitsky, Tony

Research was conducted to investigate the effects of contextual information on the speed and accuracy with which two general classes of inferences were verified by readers. These types of inferences were based on information in conversations that were or were not topically ambiguous, depending upon the amount of available contextual information.…

Optimal inference with suboptimal models: Addiction and active Bayesian inference

PubMed Central

Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H.B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Wurst, Friedrich; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl

2015-01-01

When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent’s beliefs – based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment – as opposed to the agent’s beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less ‘optimally’ than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject’s generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described ‘limited offer’ task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work. PMID:25561321

Deterministic physical systems under uncertain initial conditions: the case of maximum entropy applied to projectile motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montecinos, Alejandra; Davis, Sergio; Peralta, Joaquín

2018-07-01

The kinematics and dynamics of deterministic physical systems have been a foundation of our understanding of the world since Galileo and Newton. For real systems, however, uncertainty is largely present via external forces such as friction or lack of precise knowledge about the initial conditions of the system. In this work we focus on the latter case and describe the use of inference methodologies in solving the statistical properties of classical systems subject to uncertain initial conditions. In particular we describe the application of the formalism of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) inference to the problem of projectile motion, given information about the average horizontal range over many realizations. By using MaxEnt we can invert the problem and use the provided information on the average range to reduce the original uncertainty in the initial conditions. Also, additional insight into the initial condition's probabilities, and the projectile path distribution itself, can be achieved based on the value of the average horizontal range. The wide applicability of this procedure, as well as its ease of use, reveals a useful tool with which to revisit a large number of physics problems, from classrooms to frontier research.

Research of Planetary Gear Fault Diagnosis Based on Permutation Entropy of CEEMDAN and ANFIS

PubMed Central

Kuai, Moshen; Cheng, Gang; Li, Yong

2018-01-01

For planetary gear has the characteristics of small volume, light weight and large transmission ratio, it is widely used in high speed and high power mechanical system. Poor working conditions result in frequent failures of planetary gear. A method is proposed for diagnosing faults in planetary gear based on permutation entropy of Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in this paper. The original signal is decomposed into 6 intrinsic mode functions (IMF) and residual components by CEEMDAN. Since the IMF contains the main characteristic information of planetary gear faults, time complexity of IMFs are reflected by permutation entropies to quantify the fault features. The permutation entropies of each IMF component are defined as the input of ANFIS, and its parameters and membership functions are adaptively adjusted according to training samples. Finally, the fuzzy inference rules are determined, and the optimal ANFIS is obtained. The overall recognition rate of the test sample used for ANFIS is 90%, and the recognition rate of gear with one missing tooth is relatively high. The recognition rates of different fault gears based on the method can also achieve better results. Therefore, the proposed method can be applied to planetary gear fault diagnosis effectively. PMID:29510569

Research of Planetary Gear Fault Diagnosis Based on Permutation Entropy of CEEMDAN and ANFIS.

PubMed

Kuai, Moshen; Cheng, Gang; Pang, Yusong; Li, Yong

2018-03-05

For planetary gear has the characteristics of small volume, light weight and large transmission ratio, it is widely used in high speed and high power mechanical system. Poor working conditions result in frequent failures of planetary gear. A method is proposed for diagnosing faults in planetary gear based on permutation entropy of Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) in this paper. The original signal is decomposed into 6 intrinsic mode functions (IMF) and residual components by CEEMDAN. Since the IMF contains the main characteristic information of planetary gear faults, time complexity of IMFs are reflected by permutation entropies to quantify the fault features. The permutation entropies of each IMF component are defined as the input of ANFIS, and its parameters and membership functions are adaptively adjusted according to training samples. Finally, the fuzzy inference rules are determined, and the optimal ANFIS is obtained. The overall recognition rate of the test sample used for ANFIS is 90%, and the recognition rate of gear with one missing tooth is relatively high. The recognition rates of different fault gears based on the method can also achieve better results. Therefore, the proposed method can be applied to planetary gear fault diagnosis effectively.

Rule-based expert system for maritime anomaly detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Jean

2010-04-01

Maritime domain operators/analysts have a mandate to be aware of all that is happening within their areas of responsibility. This mandate derives from the needs to defend sovereignty, protect infrastructures, counter terrorism, detect illegal activities, etc., and it has become more challenging in the past decade, as commercial shipping turned into a potential threat. In particular, a huge portion of the data and information made available to the operators/analysts is mundane, from maritime platforms going about normal, legitimate activities, and it is very challenging for them to detect and identify the non-mundane. To achieve such anomaly detection, they must establish numerous relevant situational facts from a variety of sensor data streams. Unfortunately, many of the facts of interest just cannot be observed; the operators/analysts thus use their knowledge of the maritime domain and their reasoning faculties to infer these facts. As they are often overwhelmed by the large amount of data and information, automated reasoning tools could be used to support them by inferring the necessary facts, ultimately providing indications and warning on a small number of anomalous events worthy of their attention. Along this line of thought, this paper describes a proof-of-concept prototype of a rule-based expert system implementing automated rule-based reasoning in support of maritime anomaly detection.

Nonparametric Inference of Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process Data via the Kernel Method

PubMed Central

Zhang, Tingting; Kou, S. C.

2010-01-01

Doubly stochastic Poisson processes, also known as the Cox processes, frequently occur in various scientific fields. In this article, motivated primarily by analyzing Cox process data in biophysics, we propose a nonparametric kernel-based inference method. We conduct a detailed study, including an asymptotic analysis, of the proposed method, and provide guidelines for its practical use, introducing a fast and stable regression method for bandwidth selection. We apply our method to real photon arrival data from recent single-molecule biophysical experiments, investigating proteins' conformational dynamics. Our result shows that conformational fluctuation is widely present in protein systems, and that the fluctuation covers a broad range of time scales, highlighting the dynamic and complex nature of proteins' structure. PMID:21258615

Nonparametric Inference of Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process Data via the Kernel Method.

PubMed

Zhang, Tingting; Kou, S C

2010-01-01

Doubly stochastic Poisson processes, also known as the Cox processes, frequently occur in various scientific fields. In this article, motivated primarily by analyzing Cox process data in biophysics, we propose a nonparametric kernel-based inference method. We conduct a detailed study, including an asymptotic analysis, of the proposed method, and provide guidelines for its practical use, introducing a fast and stable regression method for bandwidth selection. We apply our method to real photon arrival data from recent single-molecule biophysical experiments, investigating proteins' conformational dynamics. Our result shows that conformational fluctuation is widely present in protein systems, and that the fluctuation covers a broad range of time scales, highlighting the dynamic and complex nature of proteins' structure.

Geoscience in the Big Data Era: Are models obsolete?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuen, D. A.; Zheng, L.; Stark, P. B.; Morra, G.; Knepley, M.; Wang, X.

2016-12-01

In last few decades, the velocity, volume, and variety of geophysical data have increased, while the development of the Internet and distributed computing has led to the emergence of "data science." Fitting and running numerical models, especially based on PDEs, is the main consumer of flops in geoscience. Can large amounts of diverse data supplant modeling? Without the ability to conduct randomized, controlled experiments, causal inference requires understanding the physics. It is sometimes possible to predict well without understanding the system—if (1) the system is predictable, (2) data on "important" variables are available, and (3) the system changes slowly enough. And sometimes even a crude model can help the data "speak for themselves" much more clearly. For example, Shearer (1991) used a 1-dimensional velocity model to stack long-period seismograms, revealing upper mantle discontinuities. This was a "big data" approach: the main use of computing was in the data processing, rather than in modeling, yet the "signal" became clear. In contrast, modelers tend to use all available computing power to fit even more complex models, resulting in a cycle where uncertainty quantification (UQ) is never possible: even if realistic UQ required only 1,000 model evaluations, it is never in reach. To make more reliable inferences requires better data analysis and statistics, not more complex models. Geoscientists need to learn new skills and tools: sound software engineering practices; open programming languages suitable for big data; parallel and distributed computing; data visualization; and basic nonparametric, computationally based statistical inference, such as permutation tests. They should work reproducibly, scripting all analyses and avoiding point-and-click tools.

Rule groupings in expert systems using nearest neighbour decision rules, and convex hulls

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anastasiadis, Stergios

1991-01-01

Expert System shells are lacking in many areas of software engineering. Large rule based systems are not semantically comprehensible, difficult to debug, and impossible to modify or validate. Partitioning a set of rules found in CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) into groups of rules which reflect the underlying semantic subdomains of the problem, will address adequately the concerns stated above. Techniques are introduced to structure a CLIPS rule base into groups of rules that inherently have common semantic information. The concepts involved are imported from the field of A.I., Pattern Recognition, and Statistical Inference. Techniques focus on the areas of feature selection, classification, and a criteria of how 'good' the classification technique is, based on Bayesian Decision Theory. A variety of distance metrics are discussed for measuring the 'closeness' of CLIPS rules and various Nearest Neighbor classification algorithms are described based on the above metric.

Where the wild things are: informal experience and ecological reasoning.

PubMed

Coley, John D

2012-01-01

Category-based induction requires selective use of different relations to guide inferences; this article examines the development of inferences based on ecological relations among living things. Three hundred and forty-six 6-, 8-, and 10-year-old children from rural, suburban, and urban communities projected novel diseases or insides from one species to an ecologically or taxonomically related species; they were also surveyed about hobbies and activities. Frequency of ecological inferences increased with age and with reports of informal exploration of nature, and decreased with population density. By age 10, children preferred taxonomic inferences for insides and ecological inferences for disease, but this pattern emerged earlier among rural children. These results underscore the importance of context by demonstrating effects of both domain-relevant experience and environment on biological reasoning. © 2012 The Authors. Child Development © 2012 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

PREFACE: ELC International Meeting on Inference, Computation, and Spin Glasses (ICSG2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabashima, Yoshiyuki; Hukushima, Koji; Inoue, Jun-ichi; Tanaka, Toshiyuki; Watanabe, Osamu

2013-12-01

The close relationship between probability-based inference and statistical mechanics of disordered systems has been noted for some time. This relationship has provided researchers with a theoretical foundation in various fields of information processing for analytical performance evaluation and construction of efficient algorithms based on message-passing or Monte Carlo sampling schemes. The ELC International Meeting on 'Inference, Computation, and Spin Glasses (ICSG2013)', was held in Sapporo 28-30 July 2013. The meeting was organized as a satellite meeting of STATPHYS25 in order to offer a forum where concerned researchers can assemble and exchange information on the latest results and newly established methodologies, and discuss future directions of the interdisciplinary studies between statistical mechanics and information sciences. Financial support from Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas, MEXT, Japan 'Exploring the Limits of Computation (ELC)' is gratefully acknowledged. We are pleased to publish 23 papers contributed by invited speakers of ICSG2013 in this volume of Journal of Physics: Conference Series. We hope that this volume will promote further development of this highly vigorous interdisciplinary field between statistical mechanics and information/computer science. Editors and ICSG2013 Organizing Committee: Koji Hukushima Jun-ichi Inoue (Local Chair of ICSG2013) Yoshiyuki Kabashima (Editor-in-Chief) Toshiyuki Tanaka Osamu Watanabe (General Chair of ICSG2013)

Inferring the Limit Behavior of Some Elementary Cellular Automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruivo, Eurico L. P.; de Oliveira, Pedro P. B.

Cellular automata locally define dynamical systems, discrete in space, time and in the state variables, capable of displaying arbitrarily complex global emergent behavior. One core question in the study of cellular automata refers to their limit behavior, that is, to the global dynamical features in an infinite time evolution. Previous works have shown that for finite time evolutions, the dynamics of one-dimensional cellular automata can be described by regular languages and, therefore, by finite automata. Such studies have shown the existence of growth patterns in the evolution of such finite automata for some elementary cellular automata rules and also inferred the limit behavior of such rules based upon the growth patterns; however, the results on the limit behavior were obtained manually, by direct inspection of the structures that arise during the time evolution. Here we present the formalization of an automatic method to compute such structures. Based on this, the rules of the elementary cellular automata space were classified according to the existence of a growth pattern in their finite automata. Also, we present a method to infer the limit graph of some elementary cellular automata rules, derived from the analysis of the regular expressions that describe their behavior in finite time. Finally, we analyze some attractors of two rules for which we could not compute the whole limit set.

The Dopaminergic Midbrain Encodes the Expected Certainty about Desired Outcomes.

PubMed

Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H B; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Friston, Karl

2015-10-01

Dopamine plays a key role in learning; however, its exact function in decision making and choice remains unclear. Recently, we proposed a generic model based on active (Bayesian) inference wherein dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about optimal policies. Put simply, dopamine discharges reflect the confidence that a chosen policy will lead to desired outcomes. We designed a novel task to test this hypothesis, where subjects played a "limited offer" game in a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment. Subjects had to decide how long to wait for a high offer before accepting a low offer, with the risk of losing everything if they waited too long. Bayesian model comparison showed that behavior strongly supported active inference, based on surprise minimization, over classical utility maximization schemes. Furthermore, midbrain activity, encompassing dopamine projection neurons, was accurately predicted by trial-by-trial variations in model-based estimates of precision. Our findings demonstrate that human subjects infer both optimal policies and the precision of those inferences, and thus support the notion that humans perform hierarchical probabilistic Bayesian inference. In other words, subjects have to infer both what they should do as well as how confident they are in their choices, where confidence may be encoded by dopaminergic firing. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press.

The Dopaminergic Midbrain Encodes the Expected Certainty about Desired Outcomes

PubMed Central

Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Friston, Karl

2015-01-01

Dopamine plays a key role in learning; however, its exact function in decision making and choice remains unclear. Recently, we proposed a generic model based on active (Bayesian) inference wherein dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about optimal policies. Put simply, dopamine discharges reflect the confidence that a chosen policy will lead to desired outcomes. We designed a novel task to test this hypothesis, where subjects played a “limited offer” game in a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment. Subjects had to decide how long to wait for a high offer before accepting a low offer, with the risk of losing everything if they waited too long. Bayesian model comparison showed that behavior strongly supported active inference, based on surprise minimization, over classical utility maximization schemes. Furthermore, midbrain activity, encompassing dopamine projection neurons, was accurately predicted by trial-by-trial variations in model-based estimates of precision. Our findings demonstrate that human subjects infer both optimal policies and the precision of those inferences, and thus support the notion that humans perform hierarchical probabilistic Bayesian inference. In other words, subjects have to infer both what they should do as well as how confident they are in their choices, where confidence may be encoded by dopaminergic firing. PMID:25056572

Using Historical Data to Automatically Identify Air-Traffic Control Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauderdale, Todd A.; Wu, Yuefeng; Tretto, Celeste

2014-01-01

This project seeks to develop statistical-based machine learning models to characterize the types of errors present when using current systems to predict future aircraft states. These models will be data-driven - based on large quantities of historical data. Once these models are developed, they will be used to infer situations in the historical data where an air-traffic controller intervened on an aircraft's route, even when there is no direct recording of this action.

Comprehensive heat transfer correlation for water/ethylene glycol-based graphene (nitrogen-doped graphene) nanofluids derived by artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savari, Maryam; Moghaddam, Amin Hedayati; Amiri, Ahmad; Shanbedi, Mehdi; Ayub, Mohamad Nizam Bin

2017-10-01

Herein, artificial neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system are employed for modeling the effects of important parameters on heat transfer and fluid flow characteristics of a car radiator and followed by comparing with those of the experimental results for testing data. To this end, two novel nanofluids (water/ethylene glycol-based graphene and nitrogen-doped graphene nanofluids) were experimentally synthesized. Then, Nusselt number was modeled with respect to the variation of inlet temperature, Reynolds number, Prandtl number and concentration, which were defined as the input (design) variables. To reach reliable results, we divided these data into train and test sections to accomplish modeling. Artificial networks were instructed by a major part of experimental data. The other part of primary data which had been considered for testing the appropriateness of the models was entered into artificial network models. Finally, predictad results were compared to the experimental data to evaluate validity. Confronted with high-level of validity confirmed that the proposed modeling procedure by BPNN with one hidden layer and five neurons is efficient and it can be expanded for all water/ethylene glycol-based carbon nanostructures nanofluids. Finally, we expanded our data collection from model and could present a fundamental correlation for calculating Nusselt number of the water/ethylene glycol-based nanofluids including graphene or nitrogen-doped graphene.

A surrogate-based sensitivity quantification and Bayesian inversion of a regional groundwater flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Mingjie; Izady, Azizallah; Abdalla, Osman A.; Amerjeed, Mansoor

2018-02-01

Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides an explicit framework for stochastic calibration of hydrogeologic models accounting for uncertainties; however, the MCMC sampling entails a large number of model calls, and could easily become computationally unwieldy if the high-fidelity hydrogeologic model simulation is time consuming. This study proposes a surrogate-based Bayesian framework to address this notorious issue, and illustrates the methodology by inverse modeling a regional MODFLOW model. The high-fidelity groundwater model is approximated by a fast statistical model using Bagging Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (BMARS) algorithm, and hence the MCMC sampling can be efficiently performed. In this study, the MODFLOW model is developed to simulate the groundwater flow in an arid region of Oman consisting of mountain-coast aquifers, and used to run representative simulations to generate training dataset for BMARS model construction. A BMARS-based Sobol' method is also employed to efficiently calculate input parameter sensitivities, which are used to evaluate and rank their importance for the groundwater flow model system. According to sensitivity analysis, insensitive parameters are screened out of Bayesian inversion of the MODFLOW model, further saving computing efforts. The posterior probability distribution of input parameters is efficiently inferred from the prescribed prior distribution using observed head data, demonstrating that the presented BMARS-based Bayesian framework is an efficient tool to reduce parameter uncertainties of a groundwater system.

Sowing the seeds of stereotypes: Spontaneous inferences about groups.

PubMed

Hamilton, David L; Chen, Jacqueline M; Ko, Deborah M; Winczewski, Lauren; Banerji, Ishani; Thurston, Joel A

2015-10-01

Although dispositional inferences may be consciously drawn from the trait implications of observed behavior, abundant research has shown that people also spontaneously infer trait dispositions simply in the process of comprehending behavior. These spontaneous trait inferences (STIs) can occur without intention or awareness. All research on STIs has studied STIs based on behaviors of individual persons. Yet important aspects of social life occur in groups, and people regularly perceive groups engaging in coordinated action. We propose that perceivers make spontaneous trait inferences about groups (STIGs), parallel to the STIs formed about individuals. In 5 experiments we showed that (a) perceivers made STIGs comparable with STIs about individuals (based on the same behaviors), (b) a cognitive load manipulation did not affect the occurrence of STIGs, (c) STIGs occurred for groups varying in entitativity, (d) STIGs influenced perceivers' impression ratings of those groups, and (e) STIG-based group impressions generalized to new group members. These experiments provide the first evidence for STIGs, a process that may contribute to the formation of spontaneous group impressions. Implications for stereotype formation are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Optimization of analytical parameters for inferring relationships among Escherichia coli isolates from repetitive-element PCR by maximizing correspondence with multilocus sequence typing data.

PubMed

Goldberg, Tony L; Gillespie, Thomas R; Singer, Randall S

2006-09-01

Repetitive-element PCR (rep-PCR) is a method for genotyping bacteria based on the selective amplification of repetitive genetic elements dispersed throughout bacterial chromosomes. The method has great potential for large-scale epidemiological studies because of its speed and simplicity; however, objective guidelines for inferring relationships among bacterial isolates from rep-PCR data are lacking. We used multilocus sequence typing (MLST) as a "gold standard" to optimize the analytical parameters for inferring relationships among Escherichia coli isolates from rep-PCR data. We chose 12 isolates from a large database to represent a wide range of pairwise genetic distances, based on the initial evaluation of their rep-PCR fingerprints. We conducted MLST with these same isolates and systematically varied the analytical parameters to maximize the correspondence between the relationships inferred from rep-PCR and those inferred from MLST. Methods that compared the shapes of densitometric profiles ("curve-based" methods) yielded consistently higher correspondence values between data types than did methods that calculated indices of similarity based on shared and different bands (maximum correspondences of 84.5% and 80.3%, respectively). Curve-based methods were also markedly more robust in accommodating variations in user-specified analytical parameter values than were "band-sharing coefficient" methods, and they enhanced the reproducibility of rep-PCR. Phylogenetic analyses of rep-PCR data yielded trees with high topological correspondence to trees based on MLST and high statistical support for major clades. These results indicate that rep-PCR yields accurate information for inferring relationships among E. coli isolates and that accuracy can be enhanced with the use of analytical methods that consider the shapes of densitometric profiles.

Inferring the distribution and demography of an invasive species from sighting data: the red fox incursion into Tasmania.

PubMed

Caley, Peter; Ramsey, David S L; Barry, Simon C

2015-01-01

A recent study has inferred that the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is now widespread in Tasmania as of 2010, based on the extraction of fox DNA from predator scats. Heuristically, this inference appears at first glance to be at odds with the lack of recent confirmed discoveries of either road-killed foxes--the last of which occurred in 2006, or hunter killed foxes--the most recent in 2001. This paper demonstrates a method to codify this heuristic analysis and produce inferences consistent with assumptions and data. It does this by formalising the analysis in a transparent and repeatable manner to make inference on the past, present and future distribution of an invasive species. It utilizes Approximate Bayesian Computation to make inferences. Importantly, the method is able to inform management of invasive species within realistic time frames, and can be applied widely. We illustrate the technique using the Tasmanian fox data. Based on the pattern of carcass discoveries of foxes in Tasmania, we infer that the population of foxes in Tasmania is most likely extinct, or restricted in distribution and demographically weak as of 2013. It is possible, though unlikely, that that population is widespread and/or demographically robust. This inference is largely at odds with the inference from the predator scat survey data. Our results suggest the chances of successfully eradicating the introduced red fox population in Tasmania may be significantly higher than previously thought.

Inferring the Distribution and Demography of an Invasive Species from Sighting Data: The Red Fox Incursion into Tasmania

PubMed Central

Caley, Peter; Ramsey, David S. L.; Barry, Simon C.

2015-01-01

A recent study has inferred that the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is now widespread in Tasmania as of 2010, based on the extraction of fox DNA from predator scats. Heuristically, this inference appears at first glance to be at odds with the lack of recent confirmed discoveries of either road-killed foxes—the last of which occurred in 2006, or hunter killed foxes—the most recent in 2001. This paper demonstrates a method to codify this heuristic analysis and produce inferences consistent with assumptions and data. It does this by formalising the analysis in a transparent and repeatable manner to make inference on the past, present and future distribution of an invasive species. It utilizes Approximate Bayesian Computation to make inferences. Importantly, the method is able to inform management of invasive species within realistic time frames, and can be applied widely. We illustrate the technique using the Tasmanian fox data. Based on the pattern of carcass discoveries of foxes in Tasmania, we infer that the population of foxes in Tasmania is most likely extinct, or restricted in distribution and demographically weak as of 2013. It is possible, though unlikely, that that population is widespread and/or demographically robust. This inference is largely at odds with the inference from the predator scat survey data. Our results suggest the chances of successfully eradicating the introduced red fox population in Tasmania may be significantly higher than previously thought. PMID:25602618

Social networks help to infer causality in the tumor microenvironment.

PubMed

Crespo, Isaac; Doucey, Marie-Agnès; Xenarios, Ioannis

2016-03-15

Networks have become a popular way to conceptualize a system of interacting elements, such as electronic circuits, social communication, metabolism or gene regulation. Network inference, analysis, and modeling techniques have been developed in different areas of science and technology, such as computer science, mathematics, physics, and biology, with an active interdisciplinary exchange of concepts and approaches. However, some concepts seem to belong to a specific field without a clear transferability to other domains. At the same time, it is increasingly recognized that within some biological systems--such as the tumor microenvironment--where different types of resident and infiltrating cells interact to carry out their functions, the complexity of the system demands a theoretical framework, such as statistical inference, graph analysis and dynamical models, in order to asses and study the information derived from high-throughput experimental technologies. In this article we propose to adopt and adapt the concepts of influence and investment from the world of social network analysis to biological problems, and in particular to apply this approach to infer causality in the tumor microenvironment. We showed that constructing a bidirectional network of influence between cell and cell communication molecules allowed us to determine the direction of inferred regulations at the expression level and correctly recapitulate cause-effect relationships described in literature. This work constitutes an example of a transfer of knowledge and concepts from the world of social network analysis to biomedical research, in particular to infer network causality in biological networks. This causality elucidation is essential to model the homeostatic response of biological systems to internal and external factors, such as environmental conditions, pathogens or treatments.

NIMEFI: gene regulatory network inference using multiple ensemble feature importance algorithms.

PubMed

Ruyssinck, Joeri; Huynh-Thu, Vân Anh; Geurts, Pierre; Dhaene, Tom; Demeester, Piet; Saeys, Yvan

2014-01-01

One of the long-standing open challenges in computational systems biology is the topology inference of gene regulatory networks from high-throughput omics data. Recently, two community-wide efforts, DREAM4 and DREAM5, have been established to benchmark network inference techniques using gene expression measurements. In these challenges the overall top performer was the GENIE3 algorithm. This method decomposes the network inference task into separate regression problems for each gene in the network in which the expression values of a particular target gene are predicted using all other genes as possible predictors. Next, using tree-based ensemble methods, an importance measure for each predictor gene is calculated with respect to the target gene and a high feature importance is considered as putative evidence of a regulatory link existing between both genes. The contribution of this work is twofold. First, we generalize the regression decomposition strategy of GENIE3 to other feature importance methods. We compare the performance of support vector regression, the elastic net, random forest regression, symbolic regression and their ensemble variants in this setting to the original GENIE3 algorithm. To create the ensemble variants, we propose a subsampling approach which allows us to cast any feature selection algorithm that produces a feature ranking into an ensemble feature importance algorithm. We demonstrate that the ensemble setting is key to the network inference task, as only ensemble variants achieve top performance. As second contribution, we explore the effect of using rankwise averaged predictions of multiple ensemble algorithms as opposed to only one. We name this approach NIMEFI (Network Inference using Multiple Ensemble Feature Importance algorithms) and show that this approach outperforms all individual methods in general, although on a specific network a single method can perform better. An implementation of NIMEFI has been made publicly available.

A Legal Negotiatiton Support System Based on A Diagram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitta, Katsumi; Shibasaki, Masato; Yasumura, Yoshiaki; Hasegawa, Ryuzo; Fujita, Hiroshi; Koshimura, Miyuki; Inoue, Katsumi; Shirai, Yasuyuki; Komatsu, Hiroshi

We present an overview of a legal negotiation support system, ANS (Argumentation based Negotiation support System). ANS consists of a user interface, three inference engines, a database of old cases, and two decision support modules. The ANS users negotiates or disputes with others via a computer network. The negotiation status is managed in the form of the negotiation diagram. The negotiation diagram is an extension of Toulmin’s argument diagram, and it contains all arguments insisted by participants. The negotiation protocols are defined as operations to the negotiation diagram. By exchanging counter arguments each other, the negotiation diagram grows up. Nonmonotonic reasoning using rule priorities are applied to the negotiation diagram.

(U) An Analytic Examination of Piezoelectric Ejecta Mass Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tregillis, Ian Lee

2017-02-02

Ongoing efforts to validate a Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI) based ejecta source model [1, 2, 3] in LANL ASC codes use ejecta areal masses derived from piezoelectric sensor data [4, 5, 6]. However, the standard technique for inferring masses from sensor voltages implicitly assumes instantaneous ejecta creation [7], which is not a feature of the RMI source model. To investigate the impact of this discrepancy, we define separate “areal mass functions” (AMFs) at the source and sensor in terms of typically unknown distribution functions for the ejecta particles, and derive an analytic relationship between them. Then, for the case of single-shockmore » ejection into vacuum, we use the AMFs to compare the analytic (or “true”) accumulated mass at the sensor with the value that would be inferred from piezoelectric voltage measurements. We confirm the inferred mass is correct when creation is instantaneous, and furthermore prove that when creation is not instantaneous, the inferred values will always overestimate the true mass. Finally, we derive an upper bound for the error imposed on a perfect system by the assumption of instantaneous ejecta creation. When applied to shots in the published literature, this bound is frequently less than several percent. Errors exceeding 15% may require velocities or timescales at odds with experimental observations.« less

Feature inference with uncertain categorization: Re-assessing Anderson's rational model.

PubMed

Konovalova, Elizaveta; Le Mens, Gaël

2017-09-18

A key function of categories is to help predictions about unobserved features of objects. At the same time, humans are often in situations where the categories of the objects they perceive are uncertain. In an influential paper, Anderson (Psychological Review, 98(3), 409-429, 1991) proposed a rational model for feature inferences with uncertain categorization. A crucial feature of this model is the conditional independence assumption-it assumes that the within category feature correlation is zero. In prior research, this model has been found to provide a poor fit to participants' inferences. This evidence is restricted to task environments inconsistent with the conditional independence assumption. Currently available evidence thus provides little information about how this model would fit participants' inferences in a setting with conditional independence. In four experiments based on a novel paradigm and one experiment based on an existing paradigm, we assess the performance of Anderson's model under conditional independence. We find that this model predicts participants' inferences better than competing models. One model assumes that inferences are based on just the most likely category. The second model is insensitive to categories but sensitive to overall feature correlation. The performance of Anderson's model is evidence that inferences were influenced not only by the more likely category but also by the other candidate category. Our findings suggest that a version of Anderson's model which relaxes the conditional independence assumption will likely perform well in environments characterized by within-category feature correlation.

Inferring biogeochemistry past: a millennial-scale multimodel assimilation of multiple paleoecological proxies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietze, M.; Raiho, A.; Fer, I.; Dawson, A.; Heilman, K.; Hooten, M.; McLachlan, J. S.; Moore, D. J.; Paciorek, C. J.; Pederson, N.; Rollinson, C.; Tipton, J.

2017-12-01

The pre-industrial period serves as an essential baseline against which we judge anthropogenic impacts on the earth's systems. However, direct measurements of key biogeochemical processes, such as carbon, water, and nutrient cycling, are absent for this period and there is no direct way to link paleoecological proxies, such as pollen and tree rings, to these processes. Process-based terrestrial ecosystem models provide a way to make inferences about the past, but have large uncertainties and by themselves often fail to capture much of the observed variability. Here we investigate the ability to improve inferences about pre-industrial biogeochemical cycles through the formal assimilation of proxy data into multiple process-based models. A Tobit ensemble filter with explicit estimation of process error was run at five sites across the eastern US for three models (LINKAGES, ED2, LPJ-GUESS). In addition to process error, the ensemble accounted for parameter uncertainty, estimated through the assimilation of the TRY and BETY trait databases, and driver uncertainty, accommodated by probabilistically downscaling and debiasing CMIP5 GCM output then filtering based on paleoclimate reconstructions. The assimilation was informed by four PalEON data products, each of which includes an explicit Bayesian error estimate: (1) STEPPS forest composition estimated from fossil pollen; (2) REFAB aboveground biomass (AGB) estimated from fossil pollen; (3) tree ring AGB and woody net primary productivity (wNPP); and (4) public land survey composition, stem density, and AGB. By comparing ensemble runs with and without data assimilation we are able to assess the information contribution of the proxy data to constraining biogeochemical fluxes, which is driven by the combination of model uncertainty, data uncertainty, and the strength of correlation between observed and unobserved quantities in the model ensemble. To our knowledge this is the first attempt at multi-model data assimilation with terrestrial ecosystem models. Results from the data-model assimilation allow us to assess the consistency across models in post-assimilation inferences about indirectly inferred quantities, such as GPP, soil carbon, and the water budget.

A new intuitionistic fuzzy rule-based decision-making system for an operating system process scheduler.

PubMed

Butt, Muhammad Arif; Akram, Muhammad

2016-01-01

We present a new intuitionistic fuzzy rule-based decision-making system based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets for a process scheduler of a batch operating system. Our proposed intuitionistic fuzzy scheduling algorithm, inputs the nice value and burst time of all available processes in the ready queue, intuitionistically fuzzify the input values, triggers appropriate rules of our intuitionistic fuzzy inference engine and finally calculates the dynamic priority (dp) of all the processes in the ready queue. Once the dp of every process is calculated the ready queue is sorted in decreasing order of dp of every process. The process with maximum dp value is sent to the central processing unit for execution. Finally, we show complete working of our algorithm on two different data sets and give comparisons with some standard non-preemptive process schedulers.

The design and application of a Transportable Inference Engine (TIE1)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mclean, David R.

1986-01-01

A Transportable Inference Engine (TIE1) system has been developed by the author as part of the Interactive Experimenter Planning System (IEPS) task which is involved with developing expert systems in support of the Spacecraft Control Programs Branch at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. Unlike traditional inference engines, TIE1 is written in the C programming language. In the TIE1 system, knowledge is represented by a hierarchical network of objects which have rule frames. The TIE1 search algorithm uses a set of strategies, including backward chaining, to obtain the values of goals. The application of TIE1 to a spacecraft scheduling problem is described. This application involves the development of a strategies interpreter which uses TIE1 to do constraint checking.

Semantic message oriented middleware for publish/subscribe networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Han; Jiang, Guofei

2004-09-01

The publish/subscribe paradigm of Message Oriented Middleware provides a loosely coupled communication model between distributed applications. Traditional publish/subscribe middleware uses keywords to match advertisements and subscriptions and does not support deep semantic matching. To this end, we designed and implemented a Semantic Message Oriented Middleware system to provide such capabilities for semantic description and matching. We adopted the DARPA Agent Markup Language and Ontology Inference Layer, a formal knowledge representation language for expressing sophisticated classifications and enabling automated inference, as the topic description language in our middleware system. A simple description logic inference system was implemented to handle the matching process between the subscriptions of subscribers and the advertisements of publishers. Moreover our middleware system also has a security architecture to support secure communication and user privilege control.

Gene network inference and visualization tools for biologists: application to new human transcriptome datasets

PubMed Central

Hurley, Daniel; Araki, Hiromitsu; Tamada, Yoshinori; Dunmore, Ben; Sanders, Deborah; Humphreys, Sally; Affara, Muna; Imoto, Seiya; Yasuda, Kaori; Tomiyasu, Yuki; Tashiro, Kosuke; Savoie, Christopher; Cho, Vicky; Smith, Stephen; Kuhara, Satoru; Miyano, Satoru; Charnock-Jones, D. Stephen; Crampin, Edmund J.; Print, Cristin G.

2012-01-01

Gene regulatory networks inferred from RNA abundance data have generated significant interest, but despite this, gene network approaches are used infrequently and often require input from bioinformaticians. We have assembled a suite of tools for analysing regulatory networks, and we illustrate their use with microarray datasets generated in human endothelial cells. We infer a range of regulatory networks, and based on this analysis discuss the strengths and limitations of network inference from RNA abundance data. We welcome contact from researchers interested in using our inference and visualization tools to answer biological questions. PMID:22121215

Modeling urban air pollution with optimized hierarchical fuzzy inference system.

PubMed

Tashayo, Behnam; Alimohammadi, Abbas

2016-10-01

Environmental exposure assessments (EEA) and epidemiological studies require urban air pollution models with appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. Uncertain available data and inflexible models can limit air pollution modeling techniques, particularly in under developing countries. This paper develops a hierarchical fuzzy inference system (HFIS) to model air pollution under different land use, transportation, and meteorological conditions. To improve performance, the system treats the issue as a large-scale and high-dimensional problem and develops the proposed model using a three-step approach. In the first step, a geospatial information system (GIS) and probabilistic methods are used to preprocess the data. In the second step, a hierarchical structure is generated based on the problem. In the third step, the accuracy and complexity of the model are simultaneously optimized with a multiple objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm. We examine the capabilities of the proposed model for predicting daily and annual mean PM2.5 and NO2 and compare the accuracy of the results with representative models from existing literature. The benefits provided by the model features, including probabilistic preprocessing, multi-objective optimization, and hierarchical structure, are precisely evaluated by comparing five different consecutive models in terms of accuracy and complexity criteria. Fivefold cross validation is used to assess the performance of the generated models. The respective average RMSEs and coefficients of determination (R (2)) for the test datasets using proposed model are as follows: daily PM2.5 = (8.13, 0.78), annual mean PM2.5 = (4.96, 0.80), daily NO2 = (5.63, 0.79), and annual mean NO2 = (2.89, 0.83). The obtained results demonstrate that the developed hierarchical fuzzy inference system can be utilized for modeling air pollution in EEA and epidemiological studies.

Knowledge bases built on web languages from the point of view of predicate logics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vajgl, Marek; Lukasová, Alena; Žáček, Martin

2017-06-01

The article undergoes evaluation of formal systems created on the base of web (ontology/concept) languages by simplifying the usual approach of knowledge representation within the FOPL, but sharing its expressiveness, semantic correct-ness, completeness and decidability. Evaluation of two of them - that one based on description logic and that one built on RDF model principles - identifies some of the lacks of those formal systems and presents, if possible, corrections of them. Possibilities to build an inference system capable to obtain new further knowledge over given knowledge bases including those describing domains by giant linked domain databases has been taken into account. Moreover, the directions towards simplifying FOPL language discussed here has been evaluated from the point of view of a possibility to become a web language for fulfilling an idea of semantic web.

Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu; Li, Zhen; Karniadakis, George Em

2017-02-01

We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are "sparse". The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

Order restricted inference for oscillatory systems for detecting rhythmic signals

PubMed Central

Larriba, Yolanda; Rueda, Cristina; Fernández, Miguel A.; Peddada, Shyamal D.

2016-01-01

Motivation: Many biological processes, such as cell cycle, circadian clock, menstrual cycles, are governed by oscillatory systems consisting of numerous components that exhibit rhythmic patterns over time. It is not always easy to identify such rhythmic components. For example, it is a challenging problem to identify circadian genes in a given tissue using time-course gene expression data. There is a great potential for misclassifying non-rhythmic as rhythmic genes and vice versa. This has been a problem of considerable interest in recent years. In this article we develop a constrained inference based methodology called Order Restricted Inference for Oscillatory Systems (ORIOS) to detect rhythmic signals. Instead of using mathematical functions (e.g. sinusoidal) to describe shape of rhythmic signals, ORIOS uses mathematical inequalities. Consequently, it is robust and not limited by the biologist's choice of the mathematical model. We studied the performance of ORIOS using simulated as well as real data obtained from mouse liver, pituitary gland and data from NIH3T3, U2OS cell lines. Our results suggest that, for a broad collection of patterns of gene expression, ORIOS has substantially higher power to detect true rhythmic genes in comparison to some popular methods, while also declaring substantially fewer non-rhythmic genes as rhythmic. Availability and Implementation: A user friendly code implemented in R language can be downloaded from http://www.niehs.nih.gov/research/atniehs/labs/bb/staff/peddada/index.cfm. Contact: peddada@niehs.nih.gov PMID:27596593

Safe Upper-Bounds Inference of Energy Consumption for Java Bytecode Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Navas, Jorge; Mendez-Lojo, Mario; Hermenegildo, Manuel V.

2008-01-01

Many space applications such as sensor networks, on-board satellite-based platforms, on-board vehicle monitoring systems, etc. handle large amounts of data and analysis of such data is often critical for the scientific mission. Transmitting such large amounts of data to the remote control station for analysis is usually too expensive for time-critical applications. Instead, modern space applications are increasingly relying on autonomous on-board data analysis. All these applications face many resource constraints. A key requirement is to minimize energy consumption. Several approaches have been developed for estimating the energy consumption of such applications (e.g. [3, 1]) based on measuring actual consumption at run-time for large sets of random inputs. However, this approach has the limitation that it is in general not possible to cover all possible inputs. Using formal techniques offers the potential for inferring safe energy consumption bounds, thus being specially interesting for space exploration and safety-critical systems. We have proposed and implemented a general frame- work for resource usage analysis of Java bytecode [2]. The user defines a set of resource(s) of interest to be tracked and some annotations that describe the cost of some elementary elements of the program for those resources. These values can be constants or, more generally, functions of the input data sizes. The analysis then statically derives an upper bound on the amount of those resources that the program as a whole will consume or provide, also as functions of the input data sizes. This article develops a novel application of the analysis of [2] to inferring safe upper bounds on the energy consumption of Java bytecode applications. We first use a resource model that describes the cost of each bytecode instruction in terms of the joules it consumes. With this resource model, we then generate energy consumption cost relations, which are then used to infer safe upper bounds. How energy consumption for each bytecode instruction is measured is beyond the scope of this paper. Instead, this paper is about how to infer safe energy consumption estimations assuming that those energy consumption costs are provided. For concreteness, we use a simplified version of an existing resource model [1] in which an energy consumption cost for individual Java opcodes is defined.

Ancestral sequence reconstruction in primate mitochondrial DNA: compositional bias and effect on functional inference.

PubMed

Krishnan, Neeraja M; Seligmann, Hervé; Stewart, Caro-Beth; De Koning, A P Jason; Pollock, David D

2004-10-01

Reconstruction of ancestral DNA and amino acid sequences is an important means of inferring information about past evolutionary events. Such reconstructions suggest changes in molecular function and evolutionary processes over the course of evolution and are used to infer adaptation and convergence. Maximum likelihood (ML) is generally thought to provide relatively accurate reconstructed sequences compared to parsimony, but both methods lead to the inference of multiple directional changes in nucleotide frequencies in primate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). To better understand this surprising result, as well as to better understand how parsimony and ML differ, we constructed a series of computationally simple "conditional pathway" methods that differed in the number of substitutions allowed per site along each branch, and we also evaluated the entire Bayesian posterior frequency distribution of reconstructed ancestral states. We analyzed primate mitochondrial cytochrome b (Cyt-b) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) genes and found that ML reconstructs ancestral frequencies that are often more different from tip sequences than are parsimony reconstructions. In contrast, frequency reconstructions based on the posterior ensemble more closely resemble extant nucleotide frequencies. Simulations indicate that these differences in ancestral sequence inference are probably due to deterministic bias caused by high uncertainty in the optimization-based ancestral reconstruction methods (parsimony, ML, Bayesian maximum a posteriori). In contrast, ancestral nucleotide frequencies based on an average of the Bayesian set of credible ancestral sequences are much less biased. The methods involving simpler conditional pathway calculations have slightly reduced likelihood values compared to full likelihood calculations, but they can provide fairly unbiased nucleotide reconstructions and may be useful in more complex phylogenetic analyses than considered here due to their speed and flexibility. To determine whether biased reconstructions using optimization methods might affect inferences of functional properties, ancestral primate mitochondrial tRNA sequences were inferred and helix-forming propensities for conserved pairs were evaluated in silico. For ambiguously reconstructed nucleotides at sites with high base composition variability, ancestral tRNA sequences from Bayesian analyses were more compatible with canonical base pairing than were those inferred by other methods. Thus, nucleotide bias in reconstructed sequences apparently can lead to serious bias and inaccuracies in functional predictions.

Propensity Score-Based Methods versus MTE-Based Methods in Causal Inference: Identification, Estimation, and Application

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhou, Xiang; Xie, Yu

2016-01-01

Since the seminal introduction of the propensity score (PS) by Rosenbaum and Rubin, PS-based methods have been widely used for drawing causal inferences in the behavioral and social sciences. However, the PS approach depends on the ignorability assumption: there are no unobserved confounders once observed covariates are taken into account. For…

Design-based Sample and Probability Law-Assumed Sample: Their Role in Scientific Investigation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ojeda, Mario Miguel; Sahai, Hardeo

2002-01-01

Discusses some key statistical concepts in probabilistic and non-probabilistic sampling to provide an overview for understanding the inference process. Suggests a statistical model constituting the basis of statistical inference and provides a brief review of the finite population descriptive inference and a quota sampling inferential theory.…

Image-Data Compression Using Edge-Optimizing Algorithm for WFA Inference.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culik, Karel II; Kari, Jarkko

1994-01-01

Presents an inference algorithm that produces a weighted finite automata (WFA), in particular, the grayness functions of graytone images. Image-data compression results based on the new inference algorithm produces a WFA with a relatively small number of edges. Image-data compression results alone and in combination with wavelets are discussed.…

The Importance of Statistical Modeling in Data Analysis and Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rollins, Derrick, Sr.

2017-01-01

Statistical inference simply means to draw a conclusion based on information that comes from data. Error bars are the most commonly used tool for data analysis and inference in chemical engineering data studies. This work demonstrates, using common types of data collection studies, the importance of specifying the statistical model for sound…

Children's Understanding of Others' Emotional States: Inferences from Extralinguistic or Paralinguistic Cues?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gil, Sandrine; Aguert, Marc; Bigot, Ludovic Le; Lacroix, Agnès; Laval, Virginie

2014-01-01

The ability to infer the emotional states of others is central to our everyday interactions. These inferences can be drawn from several different sources of information occurring simultaneously in the communication situation. Based on previous studies revealing that children pay more heed to situational context than to emotional prosody when…

Inference Instruction to Support Reading Comprehension for Elementary Students with Learning Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hall, Colby; Barnes, Marcia A.

2017-01-01

Making inferences during reading is a critical standards-based skill and is important for reading comprehension. This article supports the improvement of reading comprehension for students with learning disabilities (LD) in upper elementary grades by reviewing what is currently known about inference instruction for students with LD and providing…

Spontaneous evaluative inferences and their relationship to spontaneous trait inferences.

PubMed

Schneid, Erica D; Carlston, Donal E; Skowronski, John J

2015-05-01

Three experiments are reported that explore affectively based spontaneous evaluative impressions (SEIs) of stimulus persons. Experiments 1 and 2 used modified versions of the savings in relearning paradigm (Carlston & Skowronski, 1994) to confirm the occurrence of SEIs, indicating that they are equivalent whether participants are instructed to form trait impressions, evaluative impressions, or neither. These experiments also show that SEIs occur independently of explicit recall for the trait implications of the stimuli. Experiment 3 provides a single dissociation test to distinguish SEIs from spontaneous trait inferences (STIs), showing that disrupting cognitive processing interferes with a trait-based prediction task that presumably reflects STIs, but not with an affectively based social approach task that presumably reflects SEIs. Implications of these findings for the potential independence of spontaneous trait and evaluative inferences, as well as limitations and important steps for future study are discussed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

The Development of Variable MLM Editor and TSQL Translator Based on Arden Syntax in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Liang, Yan-Ching; Chang, Polun

2003-01-01

The Arden Syntax standard has been utilized in the medical informatics community in several countries during the past decade. It is never used in nursing in Taiwan. We try to develop a system that acquire medical expert knowledge in Chinese and translates data and logic slot into TSQL Language. The system implements TSQL translator interpreting database queries referred to in the knowledge modules. The decision-support systems in medicine are data driven system where TSQL triggers as inference engine can be used to facilitate linking to a database. PMID:14728414

A GIS System for Inferring Subsurface Geology and Material Properties: Proof of Concept

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-01

geologic structure. For example, interbedded sedimentary rocks comprise significant proportions of the Appalachian Mountains as well as various mountain ...Pitted surfaces a. Shallow, rounded, non-uniform b. More or less circular Hills and Mountains … Drainage...pear-shaped ap - pendages; talus common at bases of slopes along boundaries; strongly verti- cally jointed; vertical escarpments; co- lumnar jointing

Human Benchmarking of Expert Systems. Literature Review

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

effetiveness of the development procedures used in order to predict whether the aplication of similar approaches will likely have effective and...they used in their learning and problem solving. We will describe these approaches later. Reasoning. Reasoning usually includes inference. Because to ... in the software engineering process. For example, existing approaches to software evaluation in the military are based on a model of conventional

Consensus Theory in Expert Systems: An Adaptive Inference Framework and Application to Image Understanding

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-12-01

argument schema based on the one devel- oped by Toulmin et al. (1984). In Toulmin’s schema (Figure 4-2), a claim, or 3 conclusion whose merits we are seeking...probability judgment. Cognitive Science, 1985, 9, 309-339. Toulmin , S., Rieke, R., and Janik, A. An introduction to reasoning (2nd Edition). NY

Development of neural network techniques for finger-vein pattern classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jian-Da; Liu, Chiung-Tsiung; Tsai, Yi-Jang; Liu, Jun-Ching; Chang, Ya-Wen

2010-02-01

A personal identification system using finger-vein patterns and neural network techniques is proposed in the present study. In the proposed system, the finger-vein patterns are captured by a device that can transmit near infrared through the finger and record the patterns for signal analysis and classification. The biometric system for verification consists of a combination of feature extraction using principal component analysis and pattern classification using both back-propagation network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems. Finger-vein features are first extracted by principal component analysis method to reduce the computational burden and removes noise residing in the discarded dimensions. The features are then used in pattern classification and identification. To verify the effect of the proposed adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system in the pattern classification, the back-propagation network is compared with the proposed system. The experimental results indicated the proposed system using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system demonstrated a better performance than the back-propagation network for personal identification using the finger-vein patterns.

A Mixed Kijima Model Using the Weibull-Based Generalized Renewal Processes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Generalized Renewal Processes are useful for approaching the rejuvenation of dynamical systems resulting from planned or unplanned interventions. We present new perspectives for the Generalized Renewal Processes in general and for the Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes in particular. Disregarding from literature, we present a mixed Generalized Renewal Processes approach involving Kijima Type I and II models, allowing one to infer the impact of distinct interventions on the performance of the system under study. The first and second theoretical moments of this model are introduced as well as its maximum likelihood estimation and random sampling approaches. In order to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed Weibull-based Generalized Renewal Processes model, some real data sets involving improving, stable, and deteriorating systems are used. PMID:26197222

Excavation of attractor modules for nasopharyngeal carcinoma via integrating systemic module inference with attract method.

PubMed

Jiang, T; Jiang, C-Y; Shu, J-H; Xu, Y-J

2017-07-10

The molecular mechanism of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is poorly understood and effective therapeutic approaches are needed. This research aimed to excavate the attractor modules involved in the progression of NPC and provide further understanding of the underlying mechanism of NPC. Based on the gene expression data of NPC, two specific protein-protein interaction networks for NPC and control conditions were re-weighted using Pearson correlation coefficient. Then, a systematic tracking of candidate modules was conducted on the re-weighted networks via cliques algorithm, and a total of 19 and 38 modules were separately identified from NPC and control networks, respectively. Among them, 8 pairs of modules with similar gene composition were selected, and 2 attractor modules were identified via the attract method. Functional analysis indicated that these two attractor modules participate in one common bioprocess of cell division. Based on the strategy of integrating systemic module inference with the attract method, we successfully identified 2 attractor modules. These attractor modules might play important roles in the molecular pathogenesis of NPC via affecting the bioprocess of cell division in a conjunct way. Further research is needed to explore the correlations between cell division and NPC.

JCell--a Java-based framework for inferring regulatory networks from time series data.

PubMed

Spieth, C; Supper, J; Streichert, F; Speer, N; Zell, A

2006-08-15

JCell is a Java-based application for reconstructing gene regulatory networks from experimental data. The framework provides several algorithms to identify genetic and metabolic dependencies based on experimental data conjoint with mathematical models to describe and simulate regulatory systems. Owing to the modular structure, researchers can easily implement new methods. JCell is a pure Java application with additional scripting capabilities and thus widely usable, e.g. on parallel or cluster computers. The software is freely available for download at http://www-ra.informatik.uni-tuebingen.de/software/JCell.

Using Approximate Bayesian Computation to infer sex ratios from acoustic data.

PubMed

Lehnen, Lisa; Schorcht, Wigbert; Karst, Inken; Biedermann, Martin; Kerth, Gerald; Puechmaille, Sebastien J

2018-01-01

Population sex ratios are of high ecological relevance, but are challenging to determine in species lacking conspicuous external cues indicating their sex. Acoustic sexing is an option if vocalizations differ between sexes, but is precluded by overlapping distributions of the values of male and female vocalizations in many species. A method allowing the inference of sex ratios despite such an overlap will therefore greatly increase the information extractable from acoustic data. To meet this demand, we developed a novel approach using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to infer the sex ratio of populations from acoustic data. Additionally, parameters characterizing the male and female distribution of acoustic values (mean and standard deviation) are inferred. This information is then used to probabilistically assign a sex to a single acoustic signal. We furthermore develop a simpler means of sex ratio estimation based on the exclusion of calls from the overlap zone. Applying our methods to simulated data demonstrates that sex ratio and acoustic parameter characteristics of males and females are reliably inferred by the ABC approach. Applying both the ABC and the exclusion method to empirical datasets (echolocation calls recorded in colonies of lesser horseshoe bats, Rhinolophus hipposideros) provides similar sex ratios as molecular sexing. Our methods aim to facilitate evidence-based conservation, and to benefit scientists investigating ecological or conservation questions related to sex- or group specific behaviour across a wide range of organisms emitting acoustic signals. The developed methodology is non-invasive, low-cost and time-efficient, thus allowing the study of many sites and individuals. We provide an R-script for the easy application of the method and discuss potential future extensions and fields of applications. The script can be easily adapted to account for numerous biological systems by adjusting the type and number of groups to be distinguished (e.g. age, social rank, cryptic species) and the acoustic parameters investigated.

Convergent Evolution at the Gametophytic Self-Incompatibility System in Malus and Prunus

PubMed Central

Cunha, Ana E.; Fonseca, Nuno A.; Iezzoni, Amy; van Nocker, Steve; Vieira, Cristina P.

2015-01-01

S-RNase-based gametophytic self-incompatibility (GSI) has evolved once before the split of the Asteridae and Rosidae. This conclusion is based on the phylogenetic history of the S-RNase that determines pistil specificity. In Rosaceae, molecular characterizations of Prunus species, and species from the tribe Pyreae (i.e., Malus, Pyrus, Sorbus) revealed different numbers of genes determining S-pollen specificity. In Prunus only one pistil and pollen gene determine GSI, while in Pyreae there is one pistil but multiple pollen genes, implying different specificity recognition mechanisms. It is thus conceivable that within Rosaceae the genes involved in GSI in the two lineages are not orthologous but possibly paralogous. To address this hypothesis we characterised the S-RNase lineage and S-pollen lineage genes present in the genomes of five Rosaceae species from three genera: M. × domestica (apple, self-incompatible (SI); tribe Pyreae), P. persica (peach, self-compatible (SC); Amygdaleae), P. mume (mei, SI; Amygdaleae), Fragaria vesca (strawberry, SC; Potentilleae), and F. nipponica (mori-ichigo, SI; Potentilleae). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the Malus and Prunus S-RNase and S-pollen genes belong to distinct gene lineages, and that only Prunus S-RNase and SFB-lineage genes are present in Fragaria. Thus, S-RNase based GSI system of Malus evolved independently from the ancestral system of Rosaceae. Using expression patterns based on RNA-seq data, the ancestral S-RNase lineage gene is inferred to be expressed in pistils only, while the ancestral S-pollen lineage gene is inferred to be expressed in tissues other than pollen. PMID:25993016

Convergent evolution at the gametophytic self-incompatibility system in Malus and Prunus.

PubMed

Aguiar, Bruno; Vieira, Jorge; Cunha, Ana E; Fonseca, Nuno A; Iezzoni, Amy; van Nocker, Steve; Vieira, Cristina P

2015-01-01

S-RNase-based gametophytic self-incompatibility (GSI) has evolved once before the split of the Asteridae and Rosidae. This conclusion is based on the phylogenetic history of the S-RNase that determines pistil specificity. In Rosaceae, molecular characterizations of Prunus species, and species from the tribe Pyreae (i.e., Malus, Pyrus, Sorbus) revealed different numbers of genes determining S-pollen specificity. In Prunus only one pistil and pollen gene determine GSI, while in Pyreae there is one pistil but multiple pollen genes, implying different specificity recognition mechanisms. It is thus conceivable that within Rosaceae the genes involved in GSI in the two lineages are not orthologous but possibly paralogous. To address this hypothesis we characterised the S-RNase lineage and S-pollen lineage genes present in the genomes of five Rosaceae species from three genera: M. × domestica (apple, self-incompatible (SI); tribe Pyreae), P. persica (peach, self-compatible (SC); Amygdaleae), P. mume (mei, SI; Amygdaleae), Fragaria vesca (strawberry, SC; Potentilleae), and F. nipponica (mori-ichigo, SI; Potentilleae). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the Malus and Prunus S-RNase and S-pollen genes belong to distinct gene lineages, and that only Prunus S-RNase and SFB-lineage genes are present in Fragaria. Thus, S-RNase based GSI system of Malus evolved independently from the ancestral system of Rosaceae. Using expression patterns based on RNA-seq data, the ancestral S-RNase lineage gene is inferred to be expressed in pistils only, while the ancestral S-pollen lineage gene is inferred to be expressed in tissues other than pollen.

Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

2013-01-01

This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

SWPhylo - A Novel Tool for Phylogenomic Inferences by Comparison of Oligonucleotide Patterns and Integration of Genome-Based and Gene-Based Phylogenetic Trees.

PubMed

Yu, Xiaoyu; Reva, Oleg N

2018-01-01

Modern phylogenetic studies may benefit from the analysis of complete genome sequences of various microorganisms. Evolutionary inferences based on genome-scale analysis are believed to be more accurate than the gene-based alternative. However, the computational complexity of current phylogenomic procedures, inappropriateness of standard phylogenetic tools to process genome-wide data, and lack of reliable substitution models which correlates with alignment-free phylogenomic approaches deter microbiologists from using these opportunities. For example, the super-matrix and super-tree approaches of phylogenomics use multiple integrated genomic loci or individual gene-based trees to infer an overall consensus tree. However, these approaches potentially multiply errors of gene annotation and sequence alignment not mentioning the computational complexity and laboriousness of the methods. In this article, we demonstrate that the annotation- and alignment-free comparison of genome-wide tetranucleotide frequencies, termed oligonucleotide usage patterns (OUPs), allowed a fast and reliable inference of phylogenetic trees. These were congruent to the corresponding whole genome super-matrix trees in terms of tree topology when compared with other known approaches including 16S ribosomal RNA and GyrA protein sequence comparison, complete genome-based MAUVE, and CVTree methods. A Web-based program to perform the alignment-free OUP-based phylogenomic inferences was implemented at http://swphylo.bi.up.ac.za/. Applicability of the tool was tested on different taxa from subspecies to intergeneric levels. Distinguishing between closely related taxonomic units may be enforced by providing the program with alignments of marker protein sequences, eg, GyrA.

SWPhylo – A Novel Tool for Phylogenomic Inferences by Comparison of Oligonucleotide Patterns and Integration of Genome-Based and Gene-Based Phylogenetic Trees

PubMed Central

Yu, Xiaoyu; Reva, Oleg N

2018-01-01

Modern phylogenetic studies may benefit from the analysis of complete genome sequences of various microorganisms. Evolutionary inferences based on genome-scale analysis are believed to be more accurate than the gene-based alternative. However, the computational complexity of current phylogenomic procedures, inappropriateness of standard phylogenetic tools to process genome-wide data, and lack of reliable substitution models which correlates with alignment-free phylogenomic approaches deter microbiologists from using these opportunities. For example, the super-matrix and super-tree approaches of phylogenomics use multiple integrated genomic loci or individual gene-based trees to infer an overall consensus tree. However, these approaches potentially multiply errors of gene annotation and sequence alignment not mentioning the computational complexity and laboriousness of the methods. In this article, we demonstrate that the annotation- and alignment-free comparison of genome-wide tetranucleotide frequencies, termed oligonucleotide usage patterns (OUPs), allowed a fast and reliable inference of phylogenetic trees. These were congruent to the corresponding whole genome super-matrix trees in terms of tree topology when compared with other known approaches including 16S ribosomal RNA and GyrA protein sequence comparison, complete genome-based MAUVE, and CVTree methods. A Web-based program to perform the alignment-free OUP-based phylogenomic inferences was implemented at http://swphylo.bi.up.ac.za/. Applicability of the tool was tested on different taxa from subspecies to intergeneric levels. Distinguishing between closely related taxonomic units may be enforced by providing the program with alignments of marker protein sequences, eg, GyrA. PMID:29511354

CLIPS: A tool for corn disease diagnostic system and an aid to neural network for automated knowledge acquisition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Cathy; Taylor, Pam; Whitson, George; Smith, Cathy

1990-01-01

This paper describes the building of a corn disease diagnostic expert system using CLIPS, and the development of a neural expert system using the fact representation method of CLIPS for automated knowledge acquisition. The CLIPS corn expert system diagnoses 21 diseases from 52 symptoms and signs with certainty factors. CLIPS has several unique features. It allows the facts in rules to be broken down to object-attribute-value (OAV) triples, allows rule-grouping, and fires rules based on pattern-matching. These features combined with the chained inference engine result to a natural user query system and speedy execution. In order to develop a method for automated knowledge acquisition, an Artificial Neural Expert System (ANES) is developed by a direct mapping from the CLIPS system. The ANES corn expert system uses the same OAV triples in the CLIPS system for its facts. The LHS and RHS facts of the CLIPS rules are mapped into the input and output layers of the ANES, respectively; and the inference engine of the rules is imbedded in the hidden layer. The fact representation by OAC triples gives a natural grouping of the rules. These features allow the ANES system to automate rule-generation, and make it efficient to execute and easy to expand for a large and complex domain.

Cultural effects on the association between election outcomes and face-based trait inferences

PubMed Central

Adolphs, Ralph; Alvarez, R. Michael

2017-01-01

How competent a politician looks, as assessed in the laboratory, is correlated with whether the politician wins in real elections. This finding has led many to investigate whether the association between candidate appearances and election outcomes transcends cultures. However, these studies have largely focused on European countries and Caucasian candidates. To the best of our knowledge, there are only four cross-cultural studies that have directly investigated how face-based trait inferences correlate with election outcomes across Caucasian and Asian cultures. These prior studies have provided some initial evidence regarding cultural differences, but methodological problems and inconsistent findings have complicated our understanding of how culture mediates the effects of candidate appearances on election outcomes. Additionally, these four past studies have focused on positive traits, with a relative neglect of negative traits, resulting in an incomplete picture of how culture may impact a broader range of trait inferences. To study Caucasian-Asian cultural effects with a more balanced experimental design, and to explore a more complete profile of traits, here we compared how Caucasian and Korean participants’ inferences of positive and negative traits correlated with U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Contrary to previous reports, we found that inferences of competence (made by participants from both cultures) correlated with both U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Inferences of open-mindedness and threat, two traits neglected in previous cross-cultural studies, were correlated with Korean but not U.S. election outcomes. This differential effect was found in trait judgments made by both Caucasian and Korean participants. Interestingly, the faster the participants made face-based trait inferences, the more strongly those inferences were correlated with real election outcomes. These findings provide new insights into cultural effects and the difficult question of causality underlying the association between facial inferences and election outcomes. We also discuss the implications for political science and cognitive psychology. PMID:28700647

Cultural effects on the association between election outcomes and face-based trait inferences.

PubMed

Lin, Chujun; Adolphs, Ralph; Alvarez, R Michael

2017-01-01

How competent a politician looks, as assessed in the laboratory, is correlated with whether the politician wins in real elections. This finding has led many to investigate whether the association between candidate appearances and election outcomes transcends cultures. However, these studies have largely focused on European countries and Caucasian candidates. To the best of our knowledge, there are only four cross-cultural studies that have directly investigated how face-based trait inferences correlate with election outcomes across Caucasian and Asian cultures. These prior studies have provided some initial evidence regarding cultural differences, but methodological problems and inconsistent findings have complicated our understanding of how culture mediates the effects of candidate appearances on election outcomes. Additionally, these four past studies have focused on positive traits, with a relative neglect of negative traits, resulting in an incomplete picture of how culture may impact a broader range of trait inferences. To study Caucasian-Asian cultural effects with a more balanced experimental design, and to explore a more complete profile of traits, here we compared how Caucasian and Korean participants' inferences of positive and negative traits correlated with U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Contrary to previous reports, we found that inferences of competence (made by participants from both cultures) correlated with both U.S. and Korean election outcomes. Inferences of open-mindedness and threat, two traits neglected in previous cross-cultural studies, were correlated with Korean but not U.S. election outcomes. This differential effect was found in trait judgments made by both Caucasian and Korean participants. Interestingly, the faster the participants made face-based trait inferences, the more strongly those inferences were correlated with real election outcomes. These findings provide new insights into cultural effects and the difficult question of causality underlying the association between facial inferences and election outcomes. We also discuss the implications for political science and cognitive psychology.

Optimality and inference in hydrology from entropy production considerations: synthetic hillslope numerical experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kollet, S. J.

2015-05-01

In this study, entropy production optimization and inference principles are applied to a synthetic semi-arid hillslope in high-resolution, physics-based simulations. The results suggest that entropy or power is indeed maximized, because of the strong nonlinearity of variably saturated flow and competing processes related to soil moisture fluxes, the depletion of gradients, and the movement of a free water table. Thus, it appears that the maximum entropy production (MEP) principle may indeed be applicable to hydrologic systems. In the application to hydrologic system, the free water table constitutes an important degree of freedom in the optimization of entropy production and may also relate the theory to actual observations. In an ensuing analysis, an attempt is made to transfer the complex, "microscopic" hillslope model into a macroscopic model of reduced complexity using the MEP principle as an interference tool to obtain effective conductance coefficients and forces/gradients. The results demonstrate a new approach for the application of MEP to hydrologic systems and may form the basis for fruitful discussions and research in future.

Constraining planetary migration and tidal dissipation with coeval hot Jupiters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connor, Christopher E.; Hansen, Bradley M. S.

2018-06-01

We investigate the constraints on the formation of, and tidal dissipation processes in, hot Jupiters (HJs) that can be inferred based on reliable knowledge of the age of a system or population. Particular attention is paid to the role of young systems (such as those in open clusters or star-forming regions) in such studies. For an ensemble of coeval HJ (or proto-HJ) systems, we quantify the effect of age on the distribution of orbital eccentricities with respect to orbital periods as well as the location of the observed `pile-up' feature. We expect the effects of pre-main-sequence stellar evolution to be important only if a substantial fraction of HJs approach their current orbits early in protostellar contraction (ages ≲ 10 Myr). Application to the HJs presently known in the cluster M 67 yields constraints on the dissipation roughly consistent with those gleaned from planets in the field; for those in the Hyades and Praesepe, our results suggest a higher degree of dissipation at early times than that inferred from other populations.

Artificial intelligent techniques for optimizing water allocation in a reservoir watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Wang, Yu-Chung

2014-05-01

This study proposes a systematical water allocation scheme that integrates system analysis with artificial intelligence techniques for reservoir operation in consideration of the great uncertainty upon hydrometeorology for mitigating droughts impacts on public and irrigation sectors. The AI techniques mainly include a genetic algorithm and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). We first derive evaluation diagrams through systematic interactive evaluations on long-term hydrological data to provide a clear simulation perspective of all possible drought conditions tagged with their corresponding water shortages; then search the optimal reservoir operating histogram using genetic algorithm (GA) based on given demands and hydrological conditions that can be recognized as the optimal base of input-output training patterns for modelling; and finally build a suitable water allocation scheme through constructing an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with a learning of the mechanism between designed inputs (water discount rates and hydrological conditions) and outputs (two scenarios: simulated and optimized water deficiency levels). The effectiveness of the proposed approach is tested on the operation of the Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan for the first paddy crop in the study area to assess the water allocation mechanism during drought periods. We demonstrate that the proposed water allocation scheme significantly and substantially avails water managers of reliably determining a suitable discount rate on water supply for both irrigation and public sectors, and thus can reduce the drought risk and the compensation amount induced by making restrictions on agricultural use water.

The nature and evaluation of commercial expert system building tools, revision 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, William B.

1987-01-01

This memorandum reviews the factors that constitute an Expert System Building Tool (ESBT) and evaluates current tools in terms of these factors. Evaluation of these tools is based on their structure and their alternative forms of knowledge representation, inference mechanisms and developer end-user interfaces. Next, functional capabilities, such as diagnosis and design, are related to alternative forms of mechanization. The characteristics and capabilities of existing commercial tools are then reviewed in terms of these criteria.

System for Thermal Imaging of Hot Moving Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinstein, Leonard; Hundley, Jason

2007-01-01

The High Altitude/Re-Entry Vehicle Infrared Imaging (HARVII) system is a portable instrumentation system for tracking and thermal imaging of a possibly distant and moving object. The HARVII is designed specifically for measuring the changing temperature distribution on a space shuttle as it reenters the atmosphere. The HARVII system or other systems based on the design of the HARVII system could also be used for such purposes as determining temperature distributions in fires, on volcanoes, and on surfaces of hot models in wind tunnels. In yet another potential application, the HARVII or a similar system would be used to infer atmospheric pollution levels from images of the Sun acquired at multiple wavelengths over regions of interest. The HARVII system includes the Ratio Intensity Thermography System (RITS) and a tracking subsystem that keeps the RITS aimed at the moving object of interest. The subsystem of primary interest here is the RITS (see figure), which acquires and digitizes images of the same scene at different wavelengths in rapid succession. Assuming that the time interval between successive measurements is short enough that temperatures do not change appreciably, the digitized image data at the different wavelengths are processed to extract temperatures according to the principle of ratio-intensity thermography: The temperature at a given location in a scene is inferred from the ratios between or among intensities of infrared radiation from that location at two or more wavelengths. This principle, based on the Stefan-Boltzmann equation for the intensity of electromagnetic radiation as a function of wavelength and temperature, is valid as long as the observed body is a gray or black body and there is minimal atmospheric absorption of radiation.

Detection of Anomalous Insiders in Collaborative Environments via Relational Analysis of Access Logs

PubMed Central

Chen, You; Malin, Bradley

2014-01-01

Collaborative information systems (CIS) are deployed within a diverse array of environments, ranging from the Internet to intelligence agencies to healthcare. It is increasingly the case that such systems are applied to manage sensitive information, making them targets for malicious insiders. While sophisticated security mechanisms have been developed to detect insider threats in various file systems, they are neither designed to model nor to monitor collaborative environments in which users function in dynamic teams with complex behavior. In this paper, we introduce a community-based anomaly detection system (CADS), an unsupervised learning framework to detect insider threats based on information recorded in the access logs of collaborative environments. CADS is based on the observation that typical users tend to form community structures, such that users with low a nity to such communities are indicative of anomalous and potentially illicit behavior. The model consists of two primary components: relational pattern extraction and anomaly detection. For relational pattern extraction, CADS infers community structures from CIS access logs, and subsequently derives communities, which serve as the CADS pattern core. CADS then uses a formal statistical model to measure the deviation of users from the inferred communities to predict which users are anomalies. To empirically evaluate the threat detection model, we perform an analysis with six months of access logs from a real electronic health record system in a large medical center, as well as a publicly-available dataset for replication purposes. The results illustrate that CADS can distinguish simulated anomalous users in the context of real user behavior with a high degree of certainty and with significant performance gains in comparison to several competing anomaly detection models. PMID:25485309

Oscillating red giants in eclipsing binary systems: empirical reference value for asteroseismic scaling relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Themeßl, N.; Hekker, S.; Southworth, J.; Beck, P. G.; Pavlovski, K.; Tkachenko, A.; Angelou, G. C.; Ball, W. H.; Barban, C.; Corsaro, E.; Elsworth, Y.; Handberg, R.; Kallinger, T.

2018-05-01

The internal structures and properties of oscillating red-giant stars can be accurately inferred through their global oscillation modes (asteroseismology). Based on 1460 days of Kepler observations we perform a thorough asteroseismic study to probe the stellar parameters and evolutionary stages of three red giants in eclipsing binary systems. We present the first detailed analysis of individual oscillation modes of the red-giant components of KIC 8410637, KIC 5640750 and KIC 9540226. We obtain estimates of their asteroseismic masses, radii, mean densities and logarithmic surface gravities by using the asteroseismic scaling relations as well as grid-based modelling. As these red giants are in double-lined eclipsing binaries, it is possible to derive their independent dynamical masses and radii from the orbital solution and compare it with the seismically inferred values. For KIC 5640750 we compute the first spectroscopic orbit based on both components of this system. We use high-resolution spectroscopic data and light curves of the three systems to determine up-to-date values of the dynamical stellar parameters. With our comprehensive set of stellar parameters we explore consistencies between binary analysis and asteroseismic methods, and test the reliability of the well-known scaling relations. For the three red giants under study, we find agreement between dynamical and asteroseismic stellar parameters in cases where the asteroseismic methods account for metallicity, temperature and mass dependence as well as surface effects. We are able to attain agreement from the scaling laws in all three systems if we use Δνref, emp = 130.8 ± 0.9 μHz instead of the usual solar reference value.

Building bridges across electronic health record systems through inferred phenotypic topics.

PubMed

Chen, You; Ghosh, Joydeep; Bejan, Cosmin Adrian; Gunter, Carl A; Gupta, Siddharth; Kho, Abel; Liebovitz, David; Sun, Jimeng; Denny, Joshua; Malin, Bradley

2015-06-01

Data in electronic health records (EHRs) is being increasingly leveraged for secondary uses, ranging from biomedical association studies to comparative effectiveness. To perform studies at scale and transfer knowledge from one institution to another in a meaningful way, we need to harmonize the phenotypes in such systems. Traditionally, this has been accomplished through expert specification of phenotypes via standardized terminologies, such as billing codes. However, this approach may be biased by the experience and expectations of the experts, as well as the vocabulary used to describe such patients. The goal of this work is to develop a data-driven strategy to (1) infer phenotypic topics within patient populations and (2) assess the degree to which such topics facilitate a mapping across populations in disparate healthcare systems. We adapt a generative topic modeling strategy, based on latent Dirichlet allocation, to infer phenotypic topics. We utilize a variance analysis to assess the projection of a patient population from one healthcare system onto the topics learned from another system. The consistency of learned phenotypic topics was evaluated using (1) the similarity of topics, (2) the stability of a patient population across topics, and (3) the transferability of a topic across sites. We evaluated our approaches using four months of inpatient data from two geographically distinct healthcare systems: (1) Northwestern Memorial Hospital (NMH) and (2) Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC). The method learned 25 phenotypic topics from each healthcare system. The average cosine similarity between matched topics across the two sites was 0.39, a remarkably high value given the very high dimensionality of the feature space. The average stability of VUMC and NMH patients across the topics of two sites was 0.988 and 0.812, respectively, as measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient. Also the VUMC and NMH topics have smaller variance of characterizing patient population of two sites than standard clinical terminologies (e.g., ICD9), suggesting they may be more reliably transferred across hospital systems. Phenotypic topics learned from EHR data can be more stable and transferable than billing codes for characterizing the general status of a patient population. This suggests that EHR-based research may be able to leverage such phenotypic topics as variables when pooling patient populations in predictive models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Commercial Off-the-Shelf Software Tools for Space Shuttle Scientific Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groleau, Nicolas; Friedland, Peter (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

In October 1993, the Astronaut Science Advisor (ASA) was on board the STS-58 flight of the space shuttle. ASA is an interactive system providing data acquisition and analysis, experiment step re-scheduling, and various other forms of reasoning. As fielded, the system runs on a single Macintosh PowerBook 170, which hosts the six ASA modules. There is one other piece of hardware, an external (GW Instruments, Sommerville, Massachusetts) analog-to-digital converter connected to the PowerBook's SCSI port. Three main software tools were used: LabVIEW, CLIPS, and HyperCard: First, a module written in LabVIEW (National Instruments, Austin, Texas) controls the A/D conversion and stores the resulting data in appropriate arrays. This module also analyzes the numerical data to produce a small set of characteristic numbers or symbols describing the results of an experiment trial. Second, a forward-chaining inference system written in CLIPS (NASA) uses the symbolic information provided by the first stage with a static rule base to infer decisions about the experiment. This expert system shell is used by the system for diagnosis. The third component of the system is the user interface, written in HyperCard (Claris Inc. and Apple Inc., both in Cupertino, California).

Inferring heuristic classification hierarchies from natural language input

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hull, Richard; Gomez, Fernando

1993-01-01

A methodology for inferring hierarchies representing heuristic knowledge about the check out, control, and monitoring sub-system (CCMS) of the space shuttle launch processing system from natural language input is explained. Our method identifies failures explicitly and implicitly described in natural language by domain experts and uses those descriptions to recommend classifications for inclusion in the experts' heuristic hierarchies.

Optical Inference Machines

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-06-27

de olf nessse end Id e ;-tl Sb ieeI smleo) ,Optical Artificial Intellegence ; Optical inference engines; Optical logic; Optical informationprocessing...common. They arise in areas such as expert systems and other artificial intelligence systems. In recent years, the computer science language PROLOG has...cal processors should in principle be well suited for : I artificial intelligence applications. In recent years, symbolic logic processing. , the

On System Engineering a Barter-Based Re-allocation of Space System Key Development Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosmann, William J.

NASA has had a decades-long problem with cost growth during the development of space science missions. Numerous agency-sponsored studies have produced average mission level development cost growths ranging from 23 to 77%. A new study of 26 historical NASA science instrument set developments using expert judgment to re-allocate key development resources has an average cost growth of 73.77%. Twice in history, during the Cassini and EOS-Terra science instrument developments, a barter-based mechanism has been used to re-allocate key development resources. The mean instrument set development cost growth was -1.55%. Performing a bivariate inference on the means of these two distributions, there is statistical evidence to support the claim that using a barter-based mechanism to re-allocate key instrument development resources will result in a lower expected cost growth than using the expert judgment approach. Agent-based discrete event simulation is the natural way to model a trade environment. A NetLogo agent-based barter-based simulation of science instrument development was created. The agent-based model was validated against the Cassini historical example, as the starting and ending instrument development conditions are available. The resulting validated agent-based barter-based science instrument resource re-allocation simulation was used to perform 300 instrument development simulations, using barter to re-allocate development resources. The mean cost growth was -3.365%. A bivariate inference on the means was performed to determine that additional significant statistical evidence exists to support a claim that using barter-based resource re-allocation will result in lower expected cost growth, with respect to the historical expert judgment approach. Barter-based key development resource re-allocation should work on science spacecraft development as well as it has worked on science instrument development. A new study of 28 historical NASA science spacecraft developments has an average cost growth of 46.04%. As barter-based key development resource re-allocation has never been tried in a spacecraft development, no historical results exist, and an inference on the means test is not possible. A simulation of using barter-based resource re-allocation should be developed. The NetLogo instrument development simulation should be modified to account for spacecraft development market participant differences. The resulting agent-based barter-based spacecraft resource re-allocation simulation would then be used to determine if significant statistical evidence exists to prove a claim that using barter-based resource re-allocation will result in lower expected cost growth.

Fuzzy variable impedance control based on stiffness identification for human-robot cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Dachao; Yang, Wenlong; Du, Zhijiang

2017-06-01

This paper presents a dynamic fuzzy variable impedance control algorithm for human-robot cooperation. In order to estimate the intention of human for co-manipulation, a fuzzy inference system is set up to adjust the impedance parameter. Aiming at regulating the output fuzzy universe based on the human arm’s stiffness, an online stiffness identification method is developed. A drag interaction task is conducted on a 5-DOF robot with variable impedance control. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is superior.

Pseudocontingencies and Choice Behavior in Probabilistic Environments with Context-Dependent Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meiser, Thorsten; Rummel, Jan; Fleig, Hanna

2018-01-01

Pseudocontingencies are inferences about correlations in the environment that are formed on the basis of statistical regularities like skewed base rates or varying base rates across environmental contexts. Previous research has demonstrated that pseudocontingencies provide a pervasive mechanism of inductive inference in numerous social judgment…

Preverbal Infants Infer Third-Party Social Relationships Based on Language

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liberman, Zoe; Woodward, Amanda L.; Kinzler, Katherine D.

2017-01-01

Language provides rich social information about its speakers. For instance, adults and children make inferences about a speaker's social identity, geographic origins, and group membership based on her language and accent. Although infants prefer speakers of familiar languages (Kinzler, Dupoux, & Spelke, 2007), little is known about the…

Cognitive Integrity Predicts Transitive Inference Performance Bias and Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moses, Sandra N.; Villate, Christina; Binns, Malcolm A.; Davidson, Patrick S. R.; Ryan, Jennifer D.

2008-01-01

Transitive inference has traditionally been regarded as a relational proposition-based reasoning task, however, recent investigations question the validity of this assumption. Although some results support the use of a relational proposition-based approach, other studies find evidence for the use of associative learning. We examined whether…

Inference and the Introductory Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pfannkuch, Maxine; Regan, Matt; Wild, Chris; Budgett, Stephanie; Forbes, Sharleen; Harraway, John; Parsonage, Ross

2011-01-01

This article sets out some of the rationale and arguments for making major changes to the teaching and learning of statistical inference in introductory courses at our universities by changing from a norm-based, mathematical approach to more conceptually accessible computer-based approaches. The core problem of the inferential argument with its…

Theory of mind broad and narrow: reasoning about social exchange engages ToM areas, precautionary reasoning does not.

PubMed

Ermer, Elsa; Guerin, Scott A; Cosmides, Leda; Tooby, John; Miller, Michael B

2006-01-01

Baron-Cohen (1995) proposed that the theory of mind (ToM) inference system evolved to promote strategic social interaction. Social exchange--a form of co-operation for mutual benefit--involves strategic social interaction and requires ToM inferences about the contents of other individuals' mental states, especially their desires, goals, and intentions. There are behavioral and neuropsychological dissociations between reasoning about social exchange and reasoning about equivalent problems tapping other, more general content domains. It has therefore been proposed that social exchange behavior is regulated by social contract algorithms: a domain-specific inference system that is functionally specialized for reasoning about social exchange. We report an fMRI study using the Wason selection task that provides further support for this hypothesis. Precautionary rules share so many properties with social exchange rules--they are conditional, deontic, and involve subjective utilities--that most reasoning theories claim they are processed by the same neurocomputational machinery. Nevertheless, neuroimaging shows that reasoning about social exchange activates brain areas not activated by reasoning about precautionary rules, and vice versa. As predicted, neural correlates of ToM (anterior and posterior temporal cortex) were activated when subjects interpreted social exchange rules, but not precautionary rules (where ToM inferences are unnecessary). We argue that the interaction between ToM and social contract algorithms can be reciprocal: social contract algorithms requires ToM inferences, but their functional logic also allows ToM inferences to be made. By considering interactions between ToM in the narrower sense (belief-desire reasoning) and all the social inference systems that create the logic of human social interaction--ones that enable as well as use inferences about the content of mental states--a broader conception of ToM may emerge: a computational model embodying a Theory of Human Nature (ToHN).

Development of the Diagnostic Expert System for Tea Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshitomi, Hitoshi; Yamaguchi, Yuichi

A diagnostic expert system for tea processing which can presume the cause of the defect of the processed tea was developed to contribute to the improvement of tea processing. This system that consists of some programs can be used through the Internet. The inference engine, the core of the system adopts production system which is well used on artificial intelligence, and is coded by Prolog as the artificial intelligence oriented language. At present, 176 rules for inference have been registered on this system. The system will be able to presume better if more rules are added to the system.

Semantic Likelihood Models for Bayesian Inference in Human-Robot Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweet, Nicholas

Autonomous systems, particularly unmanned aerial systems (UAS), remain limited in au- tonomous capabilities largely due to a poor understanding of their environment. Current sensors simply do not match human perceptive capabilities, impeding progress towards full autonomy. Recent work has shown the value of humans as sources of information within a human-robot team; in target applications, communicating human-generated 'soft data' to autonomous systems enables higher levels of autonomy through large, efficient information gains. This requires development of a 'human sensor model' that allows soft data fusion through Bayesian inference to update the probabilistic belief representations maintained by autonomous systems. Current human sensor models that capture linguistic inputs as semantic information are limited in their ability to generalize likelihood functions for semantic statements: they may be learned from dense data; they do not exploit the contextual information embedded within groundings; and they often limit human input to restrictive and simplistic interfaces. This work provides mechanisms to synthesize human sensor models from constraints based on easily attainable a priori knowledge, develops compression techniques to capture information-dense semantics, and investigates the problem of capturing and fusing semantic information contained within unstructured natural language. A robotic experimental testbed is also developed to validate the above contributions.