Rotary-Wing Decelerators for Probe Descent Through the Atmosphere of Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Larry A.; Briggs, Geoffrey; Aiken, Edwin; Pisanich, Greg

2005-01-01

An innovative concept is proposed for atmospheric entry probe deceleration, wherein one or more deployed rotors (in autorotation or wind-turbine flow states) on the aft end of the probe effect controlled descent. This concept is particularly oriented toward probes intended to land safely on the surface of Venus. Initial work on design trade studies is discussed.

Chemical evolution of atmospheric organic carbon over multiple generations of oxidation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaacman-VanWertz, Gabriel; Massoli, Paola; O'Brien, Rachel; Lim, Christopher; Franklin, Jonathan P.; Moss, Joshua A.; Hunter, James F.; Nowak, John B.; Canagaratna, Manjula R.; Misztal, Pawel K.; Arata, Caleb; Roscioli, Joseph R.; Herndon, Scott T.; Onasch, Timothy B.; Lambe, Andrew T.; Jayne, John T.; Su, Luping; Knopf, Daniel A.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Worsnop, Douglas R.; Kroll, Jesse H.

2018-02-01

The evolution of atmospheric organic carbon as it undergoes oxidation has a controlling influence on concentrations of key atmospheric species, including particulate matter, ozone and oxidants. However, full characterization of organic carbon over hours to days of atmospheric processing has been stymied by its extreme chemical complexity. Here we study the multigenerational oxidation of α-pinene in the laboratory, characterizing products with several state-of-the-art analytical techniques. Although quantification of some early generation products remains elusive, full carbon closure is achieved (within measurement uncertainty) by the end of the experiments. These results provide new insights into the effects of oxidation on organic carbon properties (volatility, oxidation state and reactivity) and the atmospheric lifecycle of organic carbon. Following an initial period characterized by functionalization reactions and particle growth, fragmentation reactions dominate, forming smaller species. After approximately one day of atmospheric aging, most carbon is sequestered in two long-lived reservoirs—volatile oxidized gases and low-volatility particulate matter.

Chemical evolution of atmospheric organic carbon over multiple generations of oxidation.

PubMed

Isaacman-VanWertz, Gabriel; Massoli, Paola; O'Brien, Rachel; Lim, Christopher; Franklin, Jonathan P; Moss, Joshua A; Hunter, James F; Nowak, John B; Canagaratna, Manjula R; Misztal, Pawel K; Arata, Caleb; Roscioli, Joseph R; Herndon, Scott T; Onasch, Timothy B; Lambe, Andrew T; Jayne, John T; Su, Luping; Knopf, Daniel A; Goldstein, Allen H; Worsnop, Douglas R; Kroll, Jesse H

2018-04-01

The evolution of atmospheric organic carbon as it undergoes oxidation has a controlling influence on concentrations of key atmospheric species, including particulate matter, ozone and oxidants. However, full characterization of organic carbon over hours to days of atmospheric processing has been stymied by its extreme chemical complexity. Here we study the multigenerational oxidation of α-pinene in the laboratory, characterizing products with several state-of-the-art analytical techniques. Although quantification of some early generation products remains elusive, full carbon closure is achieved (within measurement uncertainty) by the end of the experiments. These results provide new insights into the effects of oxidation on organic carbon properties (volatility, oxidation state and reactivity) and the atmospheric lifecycle of organic carbon. Following an initial period characterized by functionalization reactions and particle growth, fragmentation reactions dominate, forming smaller species. After approximately one day of atmospheric aging, most carbon is sequestered in two long-lived reservoirs-volatile oxidized gases and low-volatility particulate matter.

Data Assimilation of AIRS Water Vapor Profiles: Impact on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western of the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Clay; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Wick, Gary; Neiman, Paul

2013-01-01

Atmospheric rivers are transient, narrow regions in the atmosphere responsible for the transport of large amounts of water vapor. These phenomena can have a large impact on precipitation. In particular, they can be responsible for intense rain events on the western coast of North America during the winter season. This paper focuses on attempts to improve forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Western US due to atmospheric rivers. Profiles of water vapor derived from from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations are combined with GFS forecasts by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forecasts initialized from the combined field are compared to forecasts initialized from the GFS forecast only for 3 test cases in the winter of 2011. Results will be presented showing the impact of the AIRS profile data on water vapor and temperature fields, and on the resultant precipitation forecasts.

Carbon accounting rules and guidelines for the United States Forest Sector

Treesearch

Richard A. Birdsey

2006-01-01

The United States Climate Change initiative includes improvements to the U.S. Department of Energy's Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. The program includes specific accounting rules and guidelines for reporting and registering forestry activities that reduce atmospheric CO2 by increasing carbon sequestration or reducing emissions....

The Use of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed for Initializing and Evaluating IPCC Decadal Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raeder, K.; Anderson, J. L.; Lauritzen, P. H.; Hoar, T. J.; Collins, N.

2010-12-01

DART (www.image.ucar.edu/DAReS/DART) is a general purpose, freely available, ensemble Kalman filter, data assimilation system, which is being used to generate state-of-the-art, partially coupled, ocean-atmosphere re-analyses in support of the decadal predictions planned for the next IPCC report. The resulting gridded product is directly comparable to the state variables output by POP and CAM (oceanic and atmospheric components of NCAR's Community Earth System Model climate model) because those are the assimilating models. Other models could also benefit from comparison against these reanalyses, since the ocean analyses are at the leading edge of ocean state estimation, and the atmospheric analyses are competitive with operational centers'. Such comparisons can reveal model biases and predictability characteristics, and do so in a quantitative way, since the ensemble nature of the analyses provides an objective estimate of the analysis error. The analyses will also be used as initial conditions for the decadal forecasts because they are the most realistic available. The generation of such analyses has revealed errors in model formulation for several versions of the finite volume core CAM, which has led to model improvements in each case. New models can be incorporated into DART in a matter of weeks, allowing them to be compared directly against available observations. The observations currently used in the assimilations include, for the ocean; temperature and salinity from the World Ocean Database (floats, drifters, moorings, autonomous pinipeds, and others), and for the atmosphere; temperature and winds from radiosondes, satellite drift winds, ACARS and aircraft. Observations of ocean currents and atmospheric moisture and pressure are also available. Global Positioning System profiles of atmospheric temperature and moisture are available for recent years. All that is required to add new observations to the suite is the forward operator, which generates an estimate of the observation from the model state. In summary, DART provides a flexible, convenient, rigorous environment for evaluating models in the context of real observations.

Importance of convective parameterization in ENSO predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Huang, Bohua; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.

2017-06-01

This letter explored the influence of atmospheric convection scheme on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions using a set of hindcast experiments. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the Climate Forecast System version 2 is used for 12 month hindcasts starting from each April during 1982-2011. The hindcast experiments are repeated with three atmospheric convection schemes. All three hindcasts apply the identical initialization with ocean initial conditions taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and atmosphere/land initial states from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessments indicate a substantial sensitivity of the sea surface temperature prediction skill to the different convection schemes, particularly over the eastern tropical Pacific. For the Niño 3.4 index, the anomaly correlation skill can differ by 0.1-0.2 at lead times longer than 2 months. Long-term simulations are further conducted with the three convection schemes to understand the differences in prediction skill. By conducting heat budget analyses for the mixed-layer temperature anomalies, it is suggested that the convection scheme having the highest skill simulates stronger and more realistic coupled feedbacks related to ENSO. Particularly, the strength of the Ekman pumping feedback is better represented, which is traced to more realistic simulation of surface wind stress. Our results imply that improving the mean state simulations in coupled (ocean-atmosphere) general circulation model (e.g., ameliorating the Intertropical Convergence Zone simulation) might further improve our ENSO prediction capability.

Creating Weather System Ensembles Through Synergistic Process Modeling and Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B.; Posselt, D. J.; Nguyen, H.; Wu, L.; Su, H.; Braverman, A. J.

2017-12-01

Earth's weather and climate are sensitive to a variety of control factors (e.g., initial state, forcing functions, etc). Characterizing the response of the atmosphere to a change in initial conditions or model forcing is critical for weather forecasting (ensemble prediction) and climate change assessment. Input - response relationships can be quantified by generating an ensemble of multiple (100s to 1000s) realistic realizations of weather and climate states. Atmospheric numerical models generate simulated data through discretized numerical approximation of the partial differential equations (PDEs) governing the underlying physics. However, the computational expense of running high resolution atmospheric state models makes generation of more than a few simulations infeasible. Here, we discuss an experiment wherein we approximate the numerical PDE solver within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model using neural networks trained on a subset of model run outputs. Once trained, these neural nets can produce large number of realization of weather states from a small number of deterministic simulations with speeds that are orders of magnitude faster than the underlying PDE solver. Our neural network architecture is inspired by the governing partial differential equations. These equations are location-invariant, and consist of first and second derivations. As such, we use a 3x3 lon-lat grid of atmospheric profiles as the predictor in the neural net to provide the network the information necessary to compute the first and second moments. Results indicate that the neural network algorithm can approximate the PDE outputs with high degree of accuracy (less than 1% error), and that this error increases as a function of the prediction time lag.

Can we detect national-scale under-reporting of CO2 emissions using OCO-2 XCO2 observations in a carbon-weather data assimilation system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuerth, S. M.; Fung, I. Y.; Anderson, J. L.; Raeder, K.

2016-12-01

A long-standing challenge in carbon cycle science is the inference of surface fluxes from atmospheric CO2 observations. Here we present initial results from our carbon-weather data assimilation system coupled to a mass-balance inversion . Our system combines the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5FV) with state-of-the-art ensemble data assimilation techniques from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), and assimilates OCO-2 XCO2 observations together with raw meteorological observations. The system uses a mass balance of the optimized atmospheric state to calculate CO2 sources and sinks throughout the globe. We present results from observing system simulation experiments (OSSE) aimed at comparing two different mass-balance approaches' abilities to detect under-reporting of national-scale CO2 emissions. In both experiments, we define a true state as the atmospheric state resulting from running CAM with a prognostic carbon cycle and CO2 emissions from CarbonTracker CT2015. Meteorological and OCO-2-like observations are harvested from this true state for assimilation. We create a hypothetical scenario in which fossil fuel CO2 emissions of a large emitter are scaled to half of their true values. Surface fluxes are then estimated using one of two approaches. The first approach computes, at every 6-hourly assimilation window, surface fluxes as the residual in the mass balance equation after divergence has been accounted for. The updated surface fluxes are then used as forcing in the ensuing CAM forecast. The second approach uses the initial false emissions for two weeks of model integration, then computes improved emissions by adding the time-averaged analysis increment in near-surface CO2 mixing ratio to the initial false emissions. The two weeks are re-run with these updated fluxes, and the process is then repeated for further refinement of fluxes. The advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches are discussed, and the system's ability to recover the true fluxes is assessed.

Space science curriculum design and research at NC A&T state university

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kebede, Abebe; Nair, Jyoti; Smith, Galen

2007-12-01

Recently, North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University (NCAT) won one of the largest awards from NASA to develop curriculum and research capability in space science in partnership with NASA centres, National Institute of Aerospace, the North Carolina Space Grant, the American Astronomical Society and a number of institutions affiliated with NASA. The plan is to develop curricula and research platforms that prepare science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) students to be employed by NASA. The research programme initially focuses on the study of space and atmospheric physics, and the development of a general capability in atmospheric/space science.

A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme U.S. Weather Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2016-01-01

This study examines the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 U.S. extreme weather using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5, (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The focus is on assessing the impact on precipitation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land conditions, and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. A key result is that the April record-breaking precipitation in the Ohio River valley was primarily the result of the unforced development of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mode of variability with unusually large amplitude, limiting the predictability of the precipitation in that region at 1-month leads. SST forcing (La Nia conditions) contributed to the broader continental-scale pattern of precipitation anomalies, producing drying in the southern plains and weak wet anomalies in the northeast, while the impact of realistic initial North American land conditions was to enhance precipitation in the upper Midwest and produce deficits in the Southeast. It was further found that 1) the 1 March atmospheric initial condition was the primary source of the ensemble mean precipitation response over the eastern United States in April (well beyond the limit of weather predictability), suggesting an influence on the initial state of the previous SST forcing and/or tropospheric/stratospheric coupling linked to an unusually persistent and cold polar vortex; and 2) stationary wave model experiments suggest that the SST-forced base state for April enhanced the amplitude of the NAO response compared to that of the climatological state, though the impact is modest and can be of either sign.

Modulation of Soil Initial State on WRF Model Performance Over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Haile; Jin, Qinjian; Yi, Bingqi; Mullendore, Gretchen L.; Zheng, Xiaohui; Jin, Hongchun

2017-11-01

The soil state (e.g., temperature and moisture) in a mesoscale numerical prediction model is typically initialized by reanalysis or analysis data that may be subject to large bias. Such bias may lead to unrealistic land-atmosphere interactions. This study shows that the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dramatically underestimates soil temperature and overestimates soil moisture over most parts of China in the first (0-10 cm) and second (10-25 cm) soil layers compared to in situ observations in July 2013. A correction based on the global optimal dual kriging is employed to correct CFSR bias in soil temperature and moisture using in situ observations. To investigate the impacts of the corrected soil state on model forecasts, two numerical model simulations—a control run with CFSR soil state and a disturbed run with the corrected soil state—were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. All the simulations are initiated 4 times per day and run 48 h. Model results show that the corrected soil state, for example, warmer and drier surface over the most parts of China, can enhance evaporation over wet regions, which changes the overlying atmospheric temperature and moisture. The changes of the lifting condensation level, level of free convection, and water transport due to corrected soil state favor precipitation over wet regions, while prohibiting precipitation over dry regions. Moreover, diagnoses indicate that the remote moisture flux convergence plays a dominant role in the precipitation changes over the wet regions.

Multiple Climate States of Habitable Exoplanets: The Role of Obliquity and Irradiance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilic, C.; Raible, C. C.; Stocker, T. F., E-mail: stocker@climate.unibe.ch

Stable, steady climate states on an Earth-size planet with no continents are determined as a function of the tilt of the planet’s rotation axis (obliquity) and stellar irradiance. Using a general circulation model of the atmosphere coupled to a slab ocean and a thermodynamic sea ice model, two states, the Aquaplanet and the Cryoplanet, are found for high and low stellar irradiance, respectively. In addition, four stable states with seasonally and perennially open water are discovered if comprehensively exploring a parameter space of obliquity from 0° to 90° and stellar irradiance from 70% to 135% of the present-day solar constant.more » Within 11% of today’s solar irradiance, we find a rich structure of stable states that extends the area of habitability considerably. For the same set of parameters, different stable states result if simulations are initialized from an aquaplanet or a cryoplanet state. This demonstrates the possibility of multiple equilibria, hysteresis, and potentially rapid climate change in response to small changes in the orbital parameters. The dynamics of the atmosphere of an aquaplanet or a cryoplanet state is investigated for similar values of obliquity and stellar irradiance. The atmospheric circulation substantially differs in the two states owing to the relative strength of the primary drivers of the meridional transport of heat and momentum. At 90° obliquity and present-day solar constant, the atmospheric dynamics of an Aquaplanet state and one with an equatorial ice cover is analyzed.« less

Multiple Climate States of Habitable Exoplanets: The Role of Obliquity and Irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilic, C.; Raible, C. C.; Stocker, T. F.

2017-08-01

Stable, steady climate states on an Earth-size planet with no continents are determined as a function of the tilt of the planet’s rotation axis (obliquity) and stellar irradiance. Using a general circulation model of the atmosphere coupled to a slab ocean and a thermodynamic sea ice model, two states, the Aquaplanet and the Cryoplanet, are found for high and low stellar irradiance, respectively. In addition, four stable states with seasonally and perennially open water are discovered if comprehensively exploring a parameter space of obliquity from 0° to 90° and stellar irradiance from 70% to 135% of the present-day solar constant. Within 11% of today’s solar irradiance, we find a rich structure of stable states that extends the area of habitability considerably. For the same set of parameters, different stable states result if simulations are initialized from an aquaplanet or a cryoplanet state. This demonstrates the possibility of multiple equilibria, hysteresis, and potentially rapid climate change in response to small changes in the orbital parameters. The dynamics of the atmosphere of an aquaplanet or a cryoplanet state is investigated for similar values of obliquity and stellar irradiance. The atmospheric circulation substantially differs in the two states owing to the relative strength of the primary drivers of the meridional transport of heat and momentum. At 90° obliquity and present-day solar constant, the atmospheric dynamics of an Aquaplanet state and one with an equatorial ice cover is analyzed.

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE PAGES

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2017-06-05

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Predictability Experiments With the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, C. A.; Gelaro, R.; Rosmond, T. E.

2003-12-01

There are several areas of research in numerical weather prediction and atmospheric predictability, such as targeted observations and ensemble perturbation generation, where it is desirable to combine information about the uncertainty of the initial state with information about potential rapid perturbation growth. Singular vectors (SVs) provide a framework to accomplish this task in a mathematically rigorous and computationally feasible manner. In this study, SVs are calculated using the tangent and adjoint models of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). The analysis error variance information produced by the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System is used as the initial-time SV norm. These VAR SVs are compared to SVs for which total energy is both the initial and final time norms (TE SVs). The incorporation of analysis error variance information has a significant impact on the structure and location of the SVs. This in turn has a significant impact on targeted observing applications. The utility and implications of such experiments in assessing the analysis error variance estimates will be explored. Computing support has been provided by the Department of Defense High Performance Computing Center at the Naval Oceanographic Office Major Shared Resource Center at Stennis, Mississippi.

Disturbance observer based model predictive control for accurate atmospheric entry of spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chao; Yang, Jun; Li, Shihua; Li, Qi; Guo, Lei

2018-05-01

Facing the complex aerodynamic environment of Mars atmosphere, a composite atmospheric entry trajectory tracking strategy is investigated in this paper. External disturbances, initial states uncertainties and aerodynamic parameters uncertainties are the main problems. The composite strategy is designed to solve these problems and improve the accuracy of Mars atmospheric entry. This strategy includes a model predictive control for optimized trajectory tracking performance, as well as a disturbance observer based feedforward compensation for external disturbances and uncertainties attenuation. 500-run Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed composite control scheme achieves more precise Mars atmospheric entry (3.8 km parachute deployment point distribution error) than the baseline control scheme (8.4 km) and integral control scheme (5.8 km).

Simulation's Ensemble is Better Than Ensemble Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, X.

2017-12-01

Simulation's ensemble is better than ensemble simulation Yan Xiaodong State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE) Beijing Normal University,19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian District, Beijing 100875, China Email: yxd@bnu.edu.cnDynamical system is simulated from initial state. However initial state data is of great uncertainty, which leads to uncertainty of simulation. Therefore, multiple possible initial states based simulation has been used widely in atmospheric science, which has indeed been proved to be able to lower the uncertainty, that was named simulation's ensemble because multiple simulation results would be fused . In ecological field, individual based model simulation (forest gap models for example) can be regarded as simulation's ensemble compared with community based simulation (most ecosystem models). In this talk, we will address the advantage of individual based simulation and even their ensembles.

Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Climate Model Representation of Land-Atmosphere Coupling on the U.S. Southern Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. J.; Klein, S. A.; Ma, H. Y.; Tang, Q.

2016-12-01

Statistically significant coupling between summertime soil moisture and various atmospheric variables has been observed at the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) facilities maintained by the U.S. DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program (Phillips and Klein, 2014 JGR). In the current study, we employ several independent measurements of shallow-depth soil moisture (SM) and of the surface evaporative fraction (EF) over multiple summers in order to estimate the range of SM-EF coupling strength at seven sites, and to approximate the SGP regional-scale coupling strength (and its uncertainty). We will use this estimate of regional-scale SM-EF coupling strength to evaluate its representation in version 5.1 of the global Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5.1) coupled to the CLM4 Land Model. Two experimental cases are considered for the 2003-2011 study period: 1) an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) run with historically observed sea surface temperatures specified, and 2) a more constrained hindcast run in which the CAM5.1 atmospheric state is initialized each day from the ERA Interim reanalysis, while the CLM4 initial conditions are obtained from an offline run of the land model using observed surface net radiation, precipitation, and wind as forcings. These twin experimental cases allow a distinction to be drawn between the land-atmosphere coupling in the free-running CAM5.1/CLM4 model and that in which the land and atmospheric states are constrained to remain closer to "reality". The constrained hindcast case, for example, should allow model errors in coupling strength to be related more closely to potential deficiencies in land-surface or atmospheric boundary-layer parameterizations. AcknowledgmentsThis work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and was performed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Quantitative modeling of the rise in atmospheric oxygen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claire, Mark W.

The abrupt rise of molecular oxygen in Earth's atmosphere approximately 2.4 billion years ago was perhaps the most profound event in Earth's history after the evolution of life itself. Biogeochemical cycles in Earth's atmosphere, ocean, and crust were completely reorganized and it also likely marked the first moment when our planet could be deemed "inhabited" across interstellar space via identification of biogenically produced O 2 and O 3 in a spectrum of Earth's atmosphere. This dissertation explores the "Great Oxidation Event" via numerical modeling of evolving ancient atmospheres. In creating a self-consistent description of evolving redox fluxes in the Earth system, we reach the following conclusions. After the evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis, the atmosphere has two primary stable states--one is methane- rich and produces mass-independent fractionation of sulfur isotopes (MIF-S), and one is oxygen-rich and does not produce MIF-S. These two stable states are separated by only a few percent in the fluxes of O 2 and CH 4 needed to sustain them. The atmosphere evolves rapidly from one state to the other when the net flux of reductants drops below the net flux of oxidants into the atmosphere. The transition between the two states - "the rise of oxygen" - is only feasible once methane levels drop below ~50 ppm. We show numerically that hydrogen escape can drive irreversible oxidation of Earth's crust, leading to decreasing CH 4 concentrations over long timescales. We argue that the disappearance of the MIF-S signal is better described as recording a collapse of atmospheric CH 4 , rather than the appearance of O 2 . As CH 4 levels decrease, a positive feedback between oxidative weathering, oceanic sulfate concentrations, and the anaerobic oxidation of methane further drives atmospheric instability. Once a critical threshold in CH 4 concentration is overcome, the atmosphere transitions from an anoxic to oxic state on the timescale of 10 3 years. The post-transition levels of O 2 and CH 4 and the global climate are strongly driven by biological forcing. Considering the events of 2.4 Ga as a "Great Collapse of Methane" helps explain the initiation of Snowball Earth, the disappearance of MIF-S, and the rise of oxygen.

Do initial conditions matter? A comparison of model climatologies generated from different initial states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Cohen, C.; Wu, P.

1981-01-01

A coarse mesh (8 by 10) 7 layer global climate model was used to compute 15 months of meteorological history in two perpetual January experiments on a water planet (without continents) with a zonally symmetric climatological January sea surface temperature field. In the first of the two water planet experiments the initial atmospheric state was a set of zonal mean values of specific humidity, temperature, and wind at each latitude. In the second experiment the model was initialized with globally uniform mean values of specific humidity and temperature on each sigma level surface, constant surface pressure (1010 mb), and zero wind everywhere. A comparison was made of the mean January climatic states generated by the two water planet experiments. The first two months of each 15 January run were discarded, and 13 month averages were computed from months 3 through 15.

50 CFR 648.237 - Framework provisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., Sept. 29, 2011. (a) Within season management action. The Councils may, at any time, initiate action to....237 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE FISHERIES OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES Management Measures for the...

An improved hindcast approach for evaluation and diagnosis of physical processes in global climate models

DOE PAGES

Ma, H. -Y.; Chuang, C. C.; Klein, S. A.; ...

2015-11-06

Here, we present an improved procedure of generating initial conditions (ICs) for climate model hindcast experiments with specified sea surface temperature and sea ice. The motivation is to minimize errors in the ICs and lead to a better evaluation of atmospheric parameterizations' performance in the hindcast mode. We apply state variables (horizontal velocities, temperature and specific humidity) from the operational analysis/reanalysis for the atmospheric initial states. Without a data assimilation system, we apply a two-step process to obtain other necessary variables to initialize both the atmospheric (e.g., aerosols and clouds) and land models (e.g., soil moisture). First, we nudge onlymore » the model horizontal velocities towards operational analysis/reanalysis values, given a 6-hour relaxation time scale, to obtain all necessary variables. Compared to the original strategy in which horizontal velocities, temperature and specific humidity are nudged, the revised approach produces a better representation of initial aerosols and cloud fields which are more consistent and closer to observations and model's preferred climatology. Second, we obtain land ICs from an offline land model simulation forced with observed precipitation, winds, and surface fluxes. This approach produces more realistic soil moisture in the land ICs. With this refined procedure, the simulated precipitation, clouds, radiation, and surface air temperature over land are improved in the Day 2 mean hindcasts. Following this procedure, we propose a “Core” integration suite which provides an easily repeatable test allowing model developers to rapidly assess the impacts of various parameterization changes on the fidelity of modelled cloud-associated processes relative to observations.« less

An improved hindcast approach for evaluation and diagnosis of physical processes in global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, H.-Y.; Chuang, C. C.; Klein, S. A.; Lo, M.-H.; Zhang, Y.; Xie, S.; Zheng, X.; Ma, P.-L.; Zhang, Y.; Phillips, T. J.

2015-12-01

We present an improved procedure of generating initial conditions (ICs) for climate model hindcast experiments with specified sea surface temperature and sea ice. The motivation is to minimize errors in the ICs and lead to a better evaluation of atmospheric parameterizations' performance in the hindcast mode. We apply state variables (horizontal velocities, temperature, and specific humidity) from the operational analysis/reanalysis for the atmospheric initial states. Without a data assimilation system, we apply a two-step process to obtain other necessary variables to initialize both the atmospheric (e.g., aerosols and clouds) and land models (e.g., soil moisture). First, we nudge only the model horizontal velocities toward operational analysis/reanalysis values, given a 6 h relaxation time scale, to obtain all necessary variables. Compared to the original strategy in which horizontal velocities, temperature, and specific humidity are nudged, the revised approach produces a better representation of initial aerosols and cloud fields which are more consistent and closer to observations and model's preferred climatology. Second, we obtain land ICs from an off-line land model simulation forced with observed precipitation, winds, and surface fluxes. This approach produces more realistic soil moisture in the land ICs. With this refined procedure, the simulated precipitation, clouds, radiation, and surface air temperature over land are improved in the Day 2 mean hindcasts. Following this procedure, we propose a "Core" integration suite which provides an easily repeatable test allowing model developers to rapidly assess the impacts of various parameterization changes on the fidelity of modeled cloud-associated processes relative to observations.

Microcomputer system for receiving and processing of satellite TOVS/TIP data for vertical sounding of the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranski, L. A.; Rozemski, K.

TOVS/TIP digital data transmitted at the VHF-BEACON range from NOAA satellites are receiving and processing at the SDRPC. Receiving station is connected with the microcomputer IBM-PC/AT which process TOVS/TIP data via two states: initial data processing and retrieval of vertical profiles of the temperature, water vapour and ozone mixing ratio in the atmosphere. Receiving and processing equipment, retrieval methods, results and error discussion are presented.

The Use of Indirect Estimates of Soil Moisture to Initialize Coupled Models and its Impact on Short-Term and Seasonal Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapenta, William M.; Crosson, William; Dembek, Scott; Lakhtakia, Mercedes

1998-01-01

It is well known that soil moisture is a characteristic of the land surface that strongly affects the partitioning of outgoing radiation into sensible and latent heat which significantly impacts both weather and climate. Detailed land surface schemes are now being coupled to mesoscale atmospheric models in order to represent the effect of soil moisture upon atmospheric simulations. However, there is little direct soil moisture data available to initialize these models on regional to continental scales. As a result, a Soil Hydrology Model (SHM) is currently being used to generate an indirect estimate of the soil moisture conditions over the continental United States at a grid resolution of 36 Km on a daily basis since 8 May 1995. The SHM is forced by analyses of atmospheric observations including precipitation and contains detailed information on slope soil and landcover characteristics.The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the utility of initializing a detailed coupled model with the soil moisture data produced by SHM.

Monthly mean simulation experiments with a course-mesh global atmospheric model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Klugman, R.; Lutz, R. J.; Notario, J. J.

1978-01-01

Substitution of observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as lower boundary conditions, in place of climatological SSTs, failed to improve the model simulations. While the impact of SST anomalies on the model output is greater at sea level than at upper levels the impact on the monthly mean simulations is not beneficial at any level. Shifts of one and two days in initialization time produced small, but non-trivial, changes in the model-generated monthly mean synoptic fields. No improvements in the mean simulations resulted from the use of either time-averaged initial data or re-initialization with time-averaged early model output. The noise level of the model, as determined from a multiple initial state perturbation experiment, was found to be generally low, but with a noisier response to initial state errors in high latitudes than the tropics.

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis; Case, Jonathan L.; Papadopoulos, Anastasios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Mecikalski, John R.; Haines, Stephanie L.

2008-01-01

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

50 CFR 648.165 - Framework specifications.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., Sept. 29, 2011. (a) Within season management action. The Council may, at any time, initiate action to... 648.165 Wildlife and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE FISHERIES OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES Management Measures for the...

Optimal impulsive manoeuvres and aerodynamic braking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jezewski, D. J.

1985-01-01

A method developed for obtaining solutions to the aerodynamic braking problem, using impulses in the exoatmospheric phases is discussed. The solution combines primer vector theory and the results of a suboptimal atmospheric guidance program. For a specified initial and final orbit, the solution determines: (1) the minimum impulsive cost using a maximum of four impulses, (2) the optimal atmospheric entry and exit-state vectors subject to equality and inequality constraints, and (3) the optimal coast times. Numerical solutions which illustrate the characteristics of the solution are presented.

An investigation of the role of current and future remote sensing data systems in numerical meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diak, George R.; Smith, William L.

1992-01-01

A flexible system for performing observing system simulation experiments which made contributions to meteorology across all elements of the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) components was developed. Future work will seek better understanding of the links between satellite-measured radiation and radiative transfer in the clear, cloudy and precipitating atmosphere and investigate how that understanding might be applied to improve the depiction of the initial state and the treatment of physical processes in forecast models of the atmosphere.

Numerical simulation of small-scale thermal convection in the atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Somerville, R. C. J.

1973-01-01

A Boussinesq system is integrated numerically in three dimensions and time in a study of nonhydrostatic convection in the atmosphere. Simulation of cloud convection is achieved by the inclusion of parametrized effects of latent heat and small-scale turbulence. The results are compared with the cell structure observed in Rayleigh-Benard laboratory conversion experiments in air. At a Rayleigh number of 4000, the numerical model adequately simulates the experimentally observed evolution, including some prominent transients of a flow from a randomly perturbed initial conductive state into the final state of steady large-amplitude two-dimensional rolls. At Rayleigh number 9000, the model reproduces the experimentally observed unsteady equilibrium of vertically coherent oscillatory waves superimposed on rolls.

Chamber measurement of surface-atmosphere trace gas exchange: Numerical evaluation of dependence on soil, interfacial layer, and source/sink properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchinson, G. L.; Livingston, G. P.; Healy, R. W.; Striegl, R. G.

2000-04-01

We employed a three-dimensional finite difference gas diffusion model to simulate the performance of chambers used to measure surface-atmosphere trace gas exchange. We found that systematic errors often result from conventional chamber design and deployment protocols, as well as key assumptions behind the estimation of trace gas exchange rates from observed concentration data. Specifically, our simulations showed that (1) when a chamber significantly alters atmospheric mixing processes operating near the soil surface, it also nearly instantaneously enhances or suppresses the postdeployment gas exchange rate, (2) any change resulting in greater soil gas diffusivity, or greater partitioning of the diffusing gas to solid or liquid soil fractions, increases the potential for chamber-induced measurement error, and (3) all such errors are independent of the magnitude, kinetics, and/or distribution of trace gas sources, but greater for trace gas sinks with the same initial absolute flux. Finally, and most importantly, we found that our results apply to steady state as well as non-steady-state chambers, because the slow rate of gas diffusion in soil inhibits recovery of the former from their initial non-steady-state condition. Over a range of representative conditions, the error in steady state chamber estimates of the trace gas flux varied from -30 to +32%, while estimates computed by linear regression from non-steady-state chamber concentrations were 2 to 31% too small. Although such errors are relatively small in comparison to the temporal and spatial variability characteristic of trace gas exchange, they bias the summary statistics for each experiment as well as larger scale trace gas flux estimates based on them.

On the habitability of a stagnant-lid Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosi, Nicola; Stracke, Barbara; Godolt, Mareike; Ruedas, Thomas; Grenfell, John Lee; Höning, Dennis; Nikolaou, Athanasia; Plesa, Ana-Catalina; Breuer, Doris; Spohn, Tilman

2016-04-01

Whether plate tectonics is a recurrent feature of terrestrial bodies orbiting other stars or is unique to the Earth is unknown. The stagnant-lid may rather be the most common tectonic mode through which terrestrial bodies operate. Here we model the thermal history of the mantle, the outgassing evolution of H2O and CO2, and the resulting climate of a hypothetical planet with the same mass, radius, and composition as the Earth, but lacking plate tectonics. We employ a 1-D model of parameterized stagnant-lid convection to simulate the evolution of melt generation, crust production, and volatile extraction over a timespan of 4.5 Gyr, focusing on the effects of three key mantle parameters: the initial temperature, which controls the overall volume of partial melt produced; the initial water content, which affects the mantle rheology and solidus temperature; and the oxygen fugacity, which is employed in a model of redox melting to determine the amount of carbon stored in partial melts. We assume that the planet lost its primordial atmosphere and use the H2O and CO2 outgassed from the interior to build up a secondary atmosphere over time. Furthermore, we assume that the planet may possess an Earth-like ocean. We calculate the atmospheric pressure based on the solubility of H2O and CO2 in basaltic magmas at the evolving surface pressure conditions. We then employ a 1-D radiative-convective, cloud-free stationary atmospheric model to calculate the resulting atmospheric temperature, pressure and water content, and the corresponding boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ) accounting for the evolution of the Sun's luminosity with time but neglecting escape processes. The interior evolution is characterized by a large initial production of partial melt accompanied by the formation of crust that rapidly grows until its thickness matches that of the stagnant lid so that the convecting sublithospheric mantle prevents further crustal growth. Even for initial water concentrations in excess of thousands of ppm, the high solubility of water in surface magmas limits the maximal partial pressure of atmospheric H2O to a few tens of bars, which places de facto an upper bound on the amount of water that can be delivered to the surface and atmosphere from the interior. The relatively low solubility of CO2 causes instead most of the carbon contained in surface melts to be outgassed. As a consequence, the partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by the redox state of the mantle, with values that range from a few up to tens of bars for oxygen fugacities between the iron-wüstite buffer and one log-unit above it. At 1 AU and for most cases, liquid water on the surface is possible, hence the planets considered would be regarded as habitable although the atmospheric temperature may be well above the temperature limits for terrestrial life. The inner edge of the HZ depends on the amount of outgassed H2O and is located further away from the star if no initial water ocean is assumed. The outer edge of the HZ is controlled by the amount of outgassed CO2, hence by the assumed redox state of the mantle and its initial temperature.

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability

PubMed Central

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-01-01

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996

Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.

PubMed

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei

2015-04-21

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.

Wet and Dry Atmospheric Mercury Deposition Accumulates in Watersheds of the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyer, E. W.; Grant, C.; Grimm, J.; Drohan, P. J.; Bennett, J.; Lawler, D.

2013-12-01

Mercury emissions to the atmosphere from coal-fired power plants and other sources such as waste incineration can be deposited to landscapes in precipitation and in dry fallout. Some mercury reaches watersheds and streams, where it can accumulate in sediments and biota. Human exposure to mercury occurs primarily through fish consumption, and currently mercury fish eating advisories are in place for many of the streams and lakes in the state. Here, we explored mercury in air, soils, water, and biota. To quantify atmospheric mercury deposition, we measured both wet and dry mercury deposition at over 10 locations in Pennsylvania, from which we present variation in mercury deposition and initial assessments of factors affecting the patterns. Further, we simulated mercury deposition at unmonitored locations in Pennsylvania and the northeastern United States over space and time with a high-resolution modeling technique that reflects storm tracks and air flow patterns. To consider mercury accumulation in watersheds, we collected data on soil mercury concentrations in a set of soil samples, and collected baseline data on mercury in streams draining 35 forested watersheds across Pennsylvania, spanning gradients of atmospheric deposition, climate and geology. Mercury concentrations were measured in stream water under base-flow conditions, in streambed sediments, aquatic mosses, and in fish tissues from brook trout. Results indicate that wet and dry atmospheric deposition is a primary source of mercury that is accumulating in watersheds of Pennsylvania and the northeastern United States.

A PILOT STUDY FOR NEAR REAL-TIME AEROSOL MODELING AND AIR QUALITY CHARACTERIZATION

EPA Science Inventory

The poster will present the objectives and initial results of a pilot study conducted as a partnership between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservat...

Pluto's atmosphere in 2015 from high-resolution spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roe, Henry G.; Cook, Jason C.; Mace, Gregory N.; Holler, Bryan J.; Young, Leslie A.; McLane, Jacob N.; Jaffe, Daniel T.

2015-11-01

Pluto's thin N2/CH4 atmosphere is in vapor-pressure equilibrium with ices on its surface. The atmosphere evolves seasonally with the varying insolation pattern on Pluto's heterogenous surface, perhaps even largely freezing out to the surface during the coldest portion of Pluto's year. We use high-resolution (R≈25,000-50,000) near-infrared spectroscopy to resolve atmospheric methane absorption lines from Pluto's continuum spectra, as well as separate Pluto's atmospheric lines from the telluric spectrum. In addition to measuring the abundance and temperature of Pluto's atmospheric CH4, with broad wavelength coverage we are able to search for the inevitable products of N2/CH4 photochemistry. In 2015 we are undertaking an intensive campaign using NIRSPEC at Keck Observatory and IGRINS (Immersion Grating INfrared Spectrometer) at McDonald Observatory to coincide with the New Horizons Pluto encounter. We will report initial results from this 2015 campaign and compare the state of Pluto's atmosphere at the time of the New Horizons encounter with earlier years.

A Sequential Ensemble Prediction System at Convection Permitting Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milan, M.; Simmer, C.

2012-04-01

A Sequential Assimilation Method (SAM) following some aspects of particle filtering with resampling, also called SIR (Sequential Importance Resampling), is introduced and applied in the framework of an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for weather forecasting on convection permitting scales, with focus to precipitation forecast. At this scale and beyond, the atmosphere increasingly exhibits chaotic behaviour and non linear state space evolution due to convectively driven processes. One way to take full account of non linear state developments are particle filter methods, their basic idea is the representation of the model probability density function by a number of ensemble members weighted by their likelihood with the observations. In particular particle filter with resampling abandons ensemble members (particles) with low weights restoring the original number of particles adding multiple copies of the members with high weights. In our SIR-like implementation we substitute the likelihood way to define weights and introduce a metric which quantifies the "distance" between the observed atmospheric state and the states simulated by the ensemble members. We also introduce a methodology to counteract filter degeneracy, i.e. the collapse of the simulated state space. To this goal we propose a combination of resampling taking account of simulated state space clustering and nudging. By keeping cluster representatives during resampling and filtering, the method maintains the potential for non linear system state development. We assume that a particle cluster with initially low likelihood may evolve in a state space with higher likelihood in a subsequent filter time thus mimicking non linear system state developments (e.g. sudden convection initiation) and remedies timing errors for convection due to model errors and/or imperfect initial condition. We apply a simplified version of the resampling, the particles with highest weights in each cluster are duplicated; for the model evolution for each particle pair one particle evolves using the forward model; the second particle, however, is nudged to the radar and satellite observation during its evolution based on the forward model.

Vertical Propagation and Temporal Growth of Perturbations in the Winter Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christiansen, B.

2001-12-01

We present a general circulation model study of the temporal growth and vertically propagation of perturbations following vertical confined forcings. Both transient and sustained forcings are considered. The motivation for the study is the recent recognition of downward propagation of anomalies from the stratosphere to the troposphere and its implications both for medium range forecasts and for a possible physical mechanism for stratospheric impacts on weather and climate. The dynamical link might also offer a mechanism for changes in the upper atmosphere to affect the tropospheric climate. Here we are thinking of changes in trace gases such as ozone, but also of modulations of the upper atmospheric structure related to the 11-year solar cycle. The model atmosphere is chaotic and shows growth of perturbations no matter which level is forced. The perturbations grow to a size comparable to the variability of the unperturbed atmosphere on a time-scale of 20 - 25 days in the troposphere and 30 - 40 days in the stratosphere. After the initial period of growth the perturbations have the same structure as the unperturbed atmosphere. Although the forcing is restricted to the northern hemisphere the perturbations encompass the whole atmosphere and develop on the same time scale on both hemispheres. Perturbations grow with time squared both when zonal mean and single cell values are considered. Such a power law growth suggest the existence of a finite predictability time which is independent of the initial perturbation as long as it is small. In the unperturbed atmosphere the stratospheric variability has the form of downward propagating stratospheric vacillations. However, in the initial period of growth the perturbations do not propagate downward and seem in general uncoupled to the background vacillations. This suggests that the downward propagation is a robust feature determined more by the processes in the troposphere than the state of the stratosphere. We note that downward propagation may still be a source for enhanced predictability of near-surface weather.

Overview of the United States Department of Energy's ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stokes, G.M.; Tichler, J.L.

The Department of Energy (DOE) is initiating a major atmospheric research effort, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM). The program is a key component of DOE's research strategy to address global climate change and is a direct continuation of DOE's decade-long effort to improve the ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to provide reliable simulations of regional, and long-term climate change in response to increasing greenhouse gases. The effort is multi-disciplinary and multi-agency, involving universities, private research organizations and more than a dozen government laboratories. The objective of the ARM Research is to provide an experimental testbed for the studymore » of important atmospheric effects, particularly cloud and radiative processes, and to test parameterizations of these processes for use in atmospheric models. This effort will support the continued and rapid improvement of GCM predictive capability. 2 refs.« less

Retrieving the polarization information for satellite-to-ground light communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Qiangqiang; Guo, Zhongyi; Xu, Qiang; Jiao, Weiyan; Wang, Xinshun; Qu, Shiliang; Gao, Jun

2015-08-01

In this paper, we have investigated the reconstruction of the polarization states (degree of polarization (DoP) and angle of polarization (AoP)) of the incident light which passed through a 10 km atmospheric medium between the satellite and the Earth. Here, we proposed a more practical atmospheric model in which the 10 km atmospheric medium is divided into ten layers to be appropriate for the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm. Based on this model, the polarization retrieve (PR) method can be used for reconstructing the initial polarization information effectively, and the simulated results demonstrate that the mean errors of the retrieved DoP and AoP are very close to zero. Moreover, the results also show that although the atmospheric medium system is fixed, the Mueller matrices for the downlink and uplink are completely different, which shows that the light transmissions in the two links are irreversible in the layered atmospheric medium system.

NASA's upper atmosphere research satellite: A program to study global ozone change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luther, Michael R.

1992-01-01

The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is a major initiative in the NASA Office of Space Science and Applications, and is the prototype for NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) planned for launch in the 1990s. The UARS combines a balanced program of experimental and theoretical investigations to perform diagnostic studies, qualitative model analysis, and quantitative measurements and comparative studies of the upper atmosphere. UARS provides theoretical and experimental investigations which pursue four specific research topics: atmospheric energy budget, chemistry, dynamics, and coupling processes. An international cadre of investigators was assembled by NASA to accomplish those scientific objectives. The observatory, its complement of ten state of the art instruments, and the ground system are nearing flight readiness. The timely UARS program will play a major role in providing data to understand the complex physical and chemical processes occurring in the upper atmosphere and answering many questions regarding the health of the ozone layer.

Coupled land surface/hydrologic/atmospheric models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pielke, Roger; Steyaert, Lou; Arritt, Ray; Lahtakia, Mercedes; Smith, Chris; Ziegler, Conrad; Soong, Su Tzai; Avissar, Roni; Wetzel, Peter; Sellers, Piers

1993-01-01

The topics covered include the following: prototype land cover characteristics data base for the conterminous United States; surface evapotranspiration effects on cumulus convection and implications for mesoscale models; the use of complex treatment of surface hydrology and thermodynamics within a mesoscale model and some related issues; initialization of soil-water content for regional-scale atmospheric prediction models; impact of surface properties on dryline and MCS evolution; a numerical simulation of heavy precipitation over the complex topography of California; representing mesoscale fluxes induced by landscape discontinuities in global climate models; emphasizing the role of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in surface-air interaction; and problems with modeling and measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon on large scales.

Towards the use of HYCOM in Coupled ENSO Prediction: Assessment of ENSO Skill in Forced Global HYCOM

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-10

CICE spun-up state forced with climatological surface atmospheric fluxes. This run was initialized from Generalized Digital Environmental Model4...GDEM4) climatological temperature and salinity. It was configured with 41layers. 2. Global 0.72° HYCOM/CICE forced with NOGAPS for 2003-2012. The same...surface temperature, sea-ice concentration, and precipitation products. It was initialized from Levitus-PHC2 climatology . It was configured with 32 layers

Observations in the 1.3 and 1.5 THz atmospheric windows with the Receiver Lab Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marrone, Daniel P.; Blundell, Raymond; Tong, Edward; Paine, Scott N.; Loudkov, Denis; Kawamura, Jonathan H.; Luhr, Daniel; Barrientos, Claudio

2005-01-01

The Receiver Lab Telescope (RLT) is a groundbased terahertz telescope; it is currently the only instrument producing astronomical data between 1 and 2 THz. The capabilities of the RLT have been expanding since observations began in late 2002. Initial observations were limited to the 850 GHz and 1.03 THz windows due to the availability of solid state local oscillators. In the last year we have begun observations with new local oscillators for the 1.3 and 1.5 THz atmospheric windows.

The influence of the ocean circulation state on ocean carbon storage and CO2 drawdown potential in an Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ödalen, Malin; Nycander, Jonas; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Brodeau, Laurent; Ridgwell, Andy

2018-03-01

During the four most recent glacial cycles, atmospheric CO2 during glacial maxima has been lowered by about 90-100 ppm with respect to interglacials. There is widespread consensus that most of this carbon was partitioned in the ocean. It is, however, still debated which processes were dominant in achieving this increased carbon storage. In this paper, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to explore the sensitivity of ocean carbon storage to ocean circulation state. We carry out a set of simulations in which we run the model to pre-industrial equilibrium, but in which we achieve different states of ocean circulation by changing forcing parameters such as wind stress, ocean diffusivity and atmospheric heat diffusivity. As a consequence, the ensemble members also have different ocean carbon reservoirs, global ocean average temperatures, biological pump efficiencies and conditions for air-sea CO2 disequilibrium. We analyse changes in total ocean carbon storage and separate it into contributions by the solubility pump, the biological pump and the CO2 disequilibrium component. We also relate these contributions to differences in the strength of the ocean overturning circulation. Depending on which ocean forcing parameter is tuned, the origin of the change in carbon storage is different. When wind stress or ocean diapycnal diffusivity is changed, the response of the biological pump gives the most important effect on ocean carbon storage, whereas when atmospheric heat diffusivity or ocean isopycnal diffusivity is changed, the solubility pump and the disequilibrium component are also important and sometimes dominant. Despite this complexity, we obtain a negative linear relationship between total ocean carbon and the combined strength of the northern and southern overturning cells. This relationship is robust to different reservoirs dominating the response to different forcing mechanisms. Finally, we conduct a drawdown experiment in which we investigate the capacity for increased carbon storage by artificially maximising the efficiency of the biological pump in our ensemble members. We conclude that different initial states for an ocean model result in different capacities for ocean carbon storage due to differences in the ocean circulation state and the origin of the carbon in the initial ocean carbon reservoir. This could explain why it is difficult to achieve comparable responses of the ocean carbon pumps in model inter-comparison studies in which the initial states vary between models. We show that this effect of the initial state is quantifiable. The drawdown experiment highlights the importance of the strength of the biological pump in the control state for model studies of increased biological efficiency.

Chamber measurement of surface-atmosphere trace gas exchange--Numerical evaluation of dependence on soil interfacial layer, and source/sink products

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hutchinson, G.L.; Livingston, G.P.; Healy, R.W.; Striegl, Robert G.

2000-01-01

We employed a three-dimensional finite difference gas diffusion model to simulate the performance of chambers used to measure surface-atmosphere tace gas exchange. We found that systematic errors often result from conventional chamber design and deployment protocols, as well as key assumptions behind the estimation of trace gas exchange rates from observed concentration data. Specifically, our simulationshowed that (1) when a chamber significantly alters atmospheric mixing processes operating near the soil surface, it also nearly instantaneously enhances or suppresses the postdeployment gas exchange rate, (2) any change resulting in greater soil gas diffusivity, or greater partitioning of the diffusing gas to solid or liquid soil fractions, increases the potential for chamber-induced measurement error, and (3) all such errors are independent of the magnitude, kinetics, and/or distribution of trace gas sources, but greater for trace gas sinks with the same initial absolute flux. Finally, and most importantly, we found that our results apply to steady state as well as non-steady-state chambers, because the slow rate of gas diffusion in soil inhibits recovery of the former from their initial non-steady-state condition. Over a range of representative conditions, the error in steady state chamber estimates of the trace gas flux varied from -30 to +32%, while estimates computed by linear regression from non-steadystate chamber concentrations were 2 to 31% too small. Although such errors are relatively small in comparison to the temporal and spatial variability characteristic of trace gas exchange, they bias the summary statistics for each experiment as well as larger scale trace gas flux estimates based on them.

Forced synchronization of large-scale circulation to increase predictability of surface states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory

2016-04-01

Numerical models are key tools in the projection of the future climate change. The lack of perfect initial condition and perfect knowledge of the laws of physics, as well as inherent chaotic behavior limit predictions. Conceptually, the atmospheric variables can be decomposed into a predictable component (signal) and an unpredictable component (noise). In ensemble prediction the anomaly of ensemble mean is regarded as the signal and the ensemble spread the noise. Naturally the prediction skill will be higher if the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is larger in the initial conditions. We run two ensemble experiments in order to explore a way to reduce the SNR of surface winds and temperature. One ensemble experiment is AGCM with prescribing sea surface temperature (SST); the other is AGCM with both prescribing SST and nudging the high-level temperature and winds to ERA-Interim. Each ensemble has 30 members. Larger SNR is expected and found over the tropical ocean in the first experiment because the tropical circulation is associated with the convection and the associated surface wind convergence as these are to a large extent driven by the SST. However, small SNR is found over high latitude ocean and land surface due to the chaotic and non-synchronized atmosphere states. In the second experiment the higher level temperature and winds are forced to be synchronized (nudged to reanalysis) and hence a larger SNR of surface winds and temperature is expected. Furthermore, different nudging coefficients are also tested in order to understand the limitation of both synchronization of large-scale circulation and the surface states. These experiments will be useful for the developing strategies to synchronize the 3-D states of atmospheric models that can be later used to build a super model.

Transient Atmospheric Circulation Changes in a Grand ensemble of Idealized CO2 Increase Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.; Kornblueh, L.

2017-12-01

The yearly evolution with increasing forcing of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is examined in a 68-member ensemble of 1pctCO2 scenario experiments performed with the MPI-ESM model. Each member of the experiment ensemble is integrated for 155 years, from initial conditions taken from a 2000-yr long pre-industrial control climate experiment. The 1pctCO2 scenario experiments are conducted following the protocol of including as external forcing only a CO2 concentration increase at 1%/year, till quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. MPI-ESM is the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (including coupling between the atmosphere, ocean and seaice). By averaging over the 68 members (ensemble mean), atmospheric variability is greatly reduced. Thus, it is possible to investigate the sensitivity to the climate state of the atmospheric response to CO2 doubling. Indicators of global change show the expected monotonic evolution with increasing CO2 and a weak dependence of the thermodynamical response to CO2 doubling on the climate state. The surface climate response of the atmospheric circulation, diagnosed for instance by the pressure at sea level, and the eddy-driven jet response show instead a marked dependence to the climate state, for the Northern winter season. We find that as the CO2 concentration increases above doubling, Northern winter trends in some indicators of atmospheric circulation changes decrease or even reverse, posing the question on what are the causes of this nonlinear behavior. The investigation of the role of stationary waves, the meridional overturning circulation, the decrease in Arctic sea ice and the stratospheric vortex points to the latter as a plausible cause of such nonlinear response.

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Marshall, Susan; Erickson, David J., III; Robertson, Franklin R.; Roads, John O.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A key question in the study of the hydrologic cycle is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. We have also made sensitivity studies with exaggerated soil moisture and snow cover anomalies in order to determine the physical processes that may be important. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. The initial state of soil moisture does not appear important, a result that held whether simulations were started in late winter or late spring. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and hence climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectively of snow is the most important process by which snow cover cart impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. In early winter, the amount of solar radiation is very small and so this albedo effect is inconsequential while in late winter, with the sun higher in the sky and period of daylight longer, the effect is much stronger.

A steady-state continuous flow chamber for the study of daytime and nighttime chemistry under atmospherically relevant NO levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xuan; Ortega, John; Huang, Yuanlong; Shertz, Stephen; Tyndall, Geoffrey S.; Orlando, John J.

2018-05-01

Experiments performed in laboratory chambers have contributed significantly to the understanding of the fundamental kinetics and mechanisms of the chemical reactions occurring in the atmosphere. Two chemical regimes, classified as high-NO vs. zero-NO conditions, have been extensively studied in previous chamber experiments. Results derived from these two chemical scenarios are widely parameterized in chemical transport models to represent key atmospheric processes in urban and pristine environments. As the anthropogenic NOx emissions in the United States have decreased remarkably in the past few decades, the classic high-NO and zero-NO conditions are no longer applicable to many regions that are constantly impacted by both polluted and background air masses. We present here the development and characterization of the NCAR Atmospheric Simulation Chamber, which is operated in steady-state continuous flow mode for the study of atmospheric chemistry under intermediate NO conditions. This particular chemical regime is characterized by constant sub-ppb levels of NO and can be created in the chamber by precise control of the inflow NO concentration and the ratio of chamber mixing to residence timescales. Over the range of conditions achievable in the chamber, the lifetime of peroxy radicals (RO2), a key intermediate from the atmospheric degradation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), can be extended to several minutes, and a diverse array of reaction pathways, including unimolecular pathways and bimolecular reactions with NO and HO2, can thus be explored. Characterization experiments under photolytic and dark conditions were performed and, in conjunction with model predictions, provide a basis for interpretation of prevailing atmospheric processes in environments with intertwined biogenic and anthropogenic activities. We demonstrate the proof of concept of the steady-state continuous flow chamber operation through measurements of major first-generation products, methacrolein (MACR) and methyl vinyl ketone (MVK), from OH- and NO3-initiated oxidation of isoprene.

Response of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone to global cooling and initiation of Antarctic glaciation across the Eocene Oligocene Transition

PubMed Central

Hyeong, Kiseong; Kuroda, Junichiro; Seo, Inah; Wilson, Paul A.

2016-01-01

Approximately 34 million years ago across the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT), Earth’s climate tipped from a largely unglaciated state into one that sustained large ice sheets on Antarctica. Antarctic glaciation is attributed to a threshold response to slow decline in atmospheric CO2 but our understanding of the feedback processes triggered and of climate change on the other contents is limited. Here we present new geochemical records of terrigenous dust accumulating on the sea floor across the EOT from a site in the central equatorial Pacific. We report a change in dust chemistry from an Asian affinity to a Central-South American provenance that occurs geologically synchronously with the initiation of stepwise global cooling, glaciation of Antarctica and aridification on the northern continents. We infer that the inter-tropical convergence zone of intense precipitation extended to our site during late Eocene, at least four degrees latitude further south than today, but that it migrated northwards in step with global cooling and initiation of Antarctic glaciation. Our findings point to an atmospheric teleconnection between extratropical cooling and rainfall climate in the tropics and the mid-latitude belt of the westerlies operating across the most pivotal transition in climate state of the Cenozoic Era. PMID:27507793

Response of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone to global cooling and initiation of Antarctic glaciation across the Eocene Oligocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyeong, Kiseong; Kuroda, Junichiro; Seo, Inah; Wilson, Paul A.

2016-08-01

Approximately 34 million years ago across the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT), Earth’s climate tipped from a largely unglaciated state into one that sustained large ice sheets on Antarctica. Antarctic glaciation is attributed to a threshold response to slow decline in atmospheric CO2 but our understanding of the feedback processes triggered and of climate change on the other contents is limited. Here we present new geochemical records of terrigenous dust accumulating on the sea floor across the EOT from a site in the central equatorial Pacific. We report a change in dust chemistry from an Asian affinity to a Central-South American provenance that occurs geologically synchronously with the initiation of stepwise global cooling, glaciation of Antarctica and aridification on the northern continents. We infer that the inter-tropical convergence zone of intense precipitation extended to our site during late Eocene, at least four degrees latitude further south than today, but that it migrated northwards in step with global cooling and initiation of Antarctic glaciation. Our findings point to an atmospheric teleconnection between extratropical cooling and rainfall climate in the tropics and the mid-latitude belt of the westerlies operating across the most pivotal transition in climate state of the Cenozoic Era.

Atmospheric breakup of a small comet in the Earth's atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teterev, A. V.; Misychenko, N. I.; Rudak, L. V.; Romanov, G. S.; Smetannikov, A. S.; Nemchinov, I. V.

1993-01-01

The aerodynamic stresses can lead to the deformation and even to destruction of the meteoroids during their flight through the atmosphere. The pressure at the blunt nose of the cosmic body moving at very high speed through the dense layers of the atmosphere may be much larger than the tensile or the compressive strength of the body. So the usage of the hydrodynamics theory is validated. The estimates show that the transverse velocity of the substance of the body U is of the order of (rho(sub a)/rho(sub o))(sup 1/2)V where V is the velocity of the body and rho(sub o) is its density, rho(sub a) is the density of the atmosphere. The separation of the fragments is larger than the diameter of the body D if D is less than D(sub c) = 2H(square root of rho(sub a)/rho(sub o)), where H is the characteristic scale of the atmosphere. For an icy body one obtains U = 1/30(V) and critical diameter D(sub C) = 500 m. The process of the disintegration of the body is still not fully understood and so one can use the numerical simulation to investigate it. Such simulations where conducted for the Venusian atmosphere and the gaseous equation of state of the body was used. For the Earth atmosphere for the velocity V = 50 km/s the pressure at the blunt nose of the body is 25 kbar, and is of the order of bulk modulus of compressibility of the water or ice. The realistic EOS of water in tabular form was used. It was assumed that the initial shape of the body was spherical and the initial diameter D(sub o) of the body is 200 m and so it is smaller than the critical diameter D(sub C). The initial kinetic energy of the icy body is equivalent to the energy of the explosion 1200 Mt of TNT. The results of the simulation of the deformation of the body during its vertical flight through the atmosphere and during its impact into the ocean are presented.

A Modeling and Verification Study of Summer Precipitation Systems Using NASA Surface Initialization Datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jonathan L. Case; Kumar, Sujay V.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2010-01-01

One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse-type convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within parameterization schemes, model resolution limitations, and uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture, soil temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of summertime pulse convection. This paper describes a sensitivity experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Interpolated land and ocean surface fields from a large-scale model are replaced with high-resolution datasets provided by unique NASA assets in an experimental simulation: the Land Information System (LIS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) SSTs. The LIS is run in an offline mode for several years at the same grid resolution as the WRF model to provide compatible land surface initial conditions in an equilibrium state. The MODIS SSTs provide detailed analyses of SSTs over the oceans and large lakes compared to current operational products. The WRF model runs initialized with the LIS+MODIS datasets result in a reduction in the overprediction of rainfall areas; however, the skill is almost equally as low in both experiments using traditional verification methodologies. Output from object-based verification within NCAR s Meteorological Evaluation Tools reveals that the WRF runs initialized with LIS+MODIS data consistently generated precipitation objects that better matched observed precipitation objects, especially at higher precipitation intensities. The LIS+MODIS runs produced on average a 4% increase in matched precipitation areas and a simultaneous 4% decrease in unmatched areas during three months of daily simulations.

On the long-term memory of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogozhina, I.; Martinec, Z.; Hagedoorn, J. M.; Thomas, M.; Fleming, K.

2011-03-01

In this study, the memory of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with respect to its past states is analyzed. According to ice core reconstructions, the present-day GIS reflects former climatic conditions dating back to at least 250 thousand years before the present (kyr BP). This fact must be considered when initializing an ice sheet model. The common initialization techniques are paleoclimatic simulations driven by atmospheric forcing inferred from ice core records and steady state simulations driven by the present-day or past climatic conditions. When paleoclimatic simulations are used, the information about the past climatic conditions is partly reflected in the resulting present-day state of the GIS. However, there are several important questions that need to be clarified. First, for how long does the model remember its initial state? Second, it is generally acknowledged that, prior to 100 kyr BP, the longest Greenland ice core record (GRIP) is distorted by ice-flow irregularities. The question arises as to what extent do the uncertainties inherent in the GRIP-based forcing influence the resulting GIS? Finally, how is the modeled thermodynamic state affected by the choice of initialization technique (paleo or steady state)? To answer these questions, a series of paleoclimatic and steady state simulations is carried out. We conclude that (1) the choice of an ice-covered initial configuration shortens the initialization simulation time to 100 kyr, (2) the uncertainties in the GRIP-based forcing affect present-day modeled ice-surface topographies and temperatures only slightly, and (3) the GIS forced by present-day climatic conditions is overall warmer than that resulting from a paleoclimatic simulation.

Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Precipitation into the Regional Atmospheric Model System (RAMS): Its Impacts on the Weather and Hydrology in the Southwest United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, H.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

2002-05-01

As one aspect of the study of interactions between the atmosphere, vegetation, soil, and hydrology, there has been on going efforts to assimilate soil moisture data using coupled and uncoupled land surface-atmosphere hydrology models. The assimilation of soil moisture is expected to have influence due to its vital function in regulating runoff, partitioning latent and sensible heat, and through determining groundwater recharge. Soil moisture can provides long-term memory or persistence of the surface boundary condition, influencing large-scale atmospheric circulation over subsequent intervals. Now that the application of satellite remote sensing has become obvious to provide input parameters associated with land surface processes to the numerical models, this study utilizes remotely sensed precipitation data, PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) to assimilate soil moisture and other soil surface characteristics. Compared to the other earlier modeling experiments of seasonal or interannual temporal scale in continental or global spatial scale, this study investigates short term predictability in regional scale with the southwest United States as a study area, which has unique metrological and geographical features that provide special difficulties for mesoscale modeling. Research objectives are to assimilate the PERSIANN precipitation data into the mesoscale model for model initialization, examine the influence and memory of model precipitation errors on the land surface and atmospheric processes, and thereby study the short term predictability of meteorology and hydrology in the Southwest United States.

Boreal Summer ISO hindcast experiment: preliminary results from SNU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heo, S.; Kang, I.; Kim, D.; Ham, Y.

2010-12-01

As a part of internationally coordinated research program, hindcast experiments with focus on boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) have been done in Seoul National University (SNU). This study aims to show preliminary results from SNU’s efforts. The ISO prediction system used in the hindcast experiment consists of SNU coupled model and SNU initialization method. The SNU coupled model is an ocean-atmosphere coupled model which couples the SNU Atmospheric GCM (SNU AGCM) to the Modular Ocean Model ver.2.2 (MOM2.2) Ocean GCM developed at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). In the SNU initialization method, both atmospheric and oceanic states are nudged toward reanalysis data (ERAinterim and GODAS) before prediction starting date. For the results here, 2 ensemble members are generated by using different nudging period, 8 and 9 days, respectively. The initial dates of 45-day predictions are the 1st, 11th, 21st of months during boreal summer season (May to October). Prediction skills and its dependency on the initial amplitude, the initial phase, and the number of ensemble members are investigated using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index suggested by Wheeler and Hendon (2004). It is shown in our hindcast experiment that, after 13 forecast lead days (the forecast skill is about 0.7), the prediction skill does not depend on the strength of the initial state. Also, we found that the prediction skill has a phase dependency. The prediction skill is particularly low when the convective center related to the MJO is over the Indian Ocean (phase 2). The ensemble prediction has more improved correlation skill than each member. To better understand the phase dependency, we compared the observed and predicted behavior of the MJO that propagates from different starting phases. The phase speed of the prediction is slower than the observation. The MJO in the hindcast experiment propagates with weaker amplitudes than observed except for initial phase 3. Also investigated is the climatology and anomalies of precipitable water to understand the difference of the propagation. The difference between observed and predicted climatology shows strong dry bias over the eastern Indian Ocean, in where convective anomalies are not properly developed in hindcast data, especially those from initial phase 2. Our results suggest possible impacts of mean bias on prediction skills of the MJO.

SPH modelling of energy partitioning during impacts on Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takata, T.; Ahrens, T. J.

1993-01-01

Impact cratering of the Venusian planetary surface by meteorites was investigated numerically using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method. Venus presently has a dense atmosphere. Vigorous transfer of energy between impacting meteorites, the planetary surface, and the atmosphere is expected during impact events. The investigation concentrated on the effects of the atmosphere on energy partitioning and the flow of ejecta and gas. The SPH method is particularly suitable for studying complex motion, especially because of its ability to be extended to three dimensions. In our simulations, particles representing impactors and targets are initially set to a uniform density, and those of atmosphere are set to be in hydrostatic equilibrium. Target, impactor, and atmosphere are represented by 9800, 80, and 4200 particles, respectively. A Tillotson equation of state for granite is assumed for the target and impactor, and an ideal gas with constant specific heat ratio is used for the atmosphere. Two dimensional axisymmetric geometry was assumed and normal impacts of 10km diameter projectiles with velocities of 5, 10, 20, and 40 km/s, both with and without an atmosphere present were modeled.

SOA formation from photooxidation of naphthalene and methylnaphthalenes with m-xylene and surrogate mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chia-Li; Li, Lijie; Tang, Ping; Cocker, David R.

2018-05-01

SOA formation is not well predicted in current models in urban area. The interaction among multiple anthropogenic volatile organic compounds is essential for the SOA formation in the complex urban atmosphere. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from the photooxidation of naphthalene, 1-methylnaphthalene, and 2-methylnaphthalene as well as individual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) mixed with m-xylene or an atmospheric surrogate mixture was explored in the UCR CE-CERT environmental chamber under urban relevant low NOx and extremely low NOx (H2O2) conditions. Addition of m-xylene suppressed SOA formation from the individual PAH precursor. A similar suppression effect on SOA formation was observed during the surrogate mixture photooxidation suggesting the importance of gas-phase chemical reactivity to SOA formation. The SOA growth rate for different PAH-m-xylene mixtures was strongly correlated with initial [HO2]/[RO2] ratio but negatively correlated with initial m-xylene/NO ratio. Decreasing SOA formation was observed for increasing m-xylene/PAHs ratios and increasing initial m-xylene/NO ratio. The SOA chemical composition characteristics such as f44 versus f43, H/C ratio, O/C ratio, and the oxidation state of the carbon OSbarc were consistent with a continuously aging with the SOA exhibiting characteristics of both individual precursors. SOA formation from PAHs was also suppressed within an atmospheric surrogate mixture compared to the SOA formed from individual PAHs, indicating that atmospheric reactivity directly influences SOA formation from PAHs.

Dissociative recombination of O2(+), NO(+) and N2(+)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guberman, S. L.

1983-01-01

A new L(2) approach for the calculation of the threshold molecular capture width needed for the determination of DR cross sections was developed. The widths are calculated with Fermi's golden rule by substituting Rydberg orbitals for the free electron continuum coulomb orbital. It is shown that the calculated width converges exponentially as the effective principal quantum number of the Rydberg orbital increases. The threshold capture width is then easily obtained. Since atmospheric recombination involves very low energy electrons, the threshold capture widths are essential to the calculation of DR cross sections for the atmospheric species studied here. The approach described makes use of bound state computer codes already in use. A program that collects width matrix elements over CI wavefunctions for the initial and final states is described.

Alternative Approaches to Land Initialization for Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max; Liu, Ping; Jambor, Urszula

2004-01-01

The seasonal prediction system of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to generate ensembles of summer forecasts utilizing realistic soil moisture initialization. To derive the realistic land states, we drive offline the system's land model with realistic meteorological forcing over the period 1979-1993 (in cooperation with the Global Land Data Assimilation System project at GSFC) and then extract the state variables' values on the chosen forecast start dates. A parallel series of forecast ensembles is performed with a random (though climatologically consistent) set of land initial conditions; by comparing the two sets of ensembles, we can isolate the impact of land initialization on forecast skill from that of the imposed SSTs. The base initialization experiment is supplemented with several forecast ensembles that use alternative initialization techniques. One ensemble addresses the impact of minimizing climate drift in the system through the scaling of the initial conditions, and another is designed to isolate the importance of the precipitation signal from that of all other signals in the antecedent offline forcing. A third ensemble includes a more realistic initialization of the atmosphere along with the land initialization. The impact of each variation on forecast skill is quantified.

The Thermal States of Accreting Planets: From Mars-like Embryos to a MAD Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, S. T.; Lock, S. J.

2015-12-01

The thermal states of rocky planets can vary widely during the process of accretion. The thermal structure affects several major processes on the growing planet, including the mechanics of core formation, pressure-temperature conditions for metal-silicate equilibration, mixing, and atmospheric erosion. Because impact energy is distributed heterogeneously, accretional energy is preferentially deposited in the gravitationally re-equilibrated outer layers of the planet for both small and giant impacts. The resulting stably stratified structure inhibits complete mixing within the mantle. Initially, the specific energy of giant impacts between Mars-mass embryos leads to melting of the mantle. However, as planet formation progresses, the specific energies of giant impacts increase and can drive the mantle into a transient supercritical state. In the hottest regions of the planet, metal and silicates are miscible, and metal exsolution occurs as the structure cools. The cooling time of the supercritical structure is typically longer than the timescale for metal segregation to the core. Thus, these high temperature excursions during planet formation are significant for understanding metal-silicate equilibration. Furthermore, when a supercritical planet is also rapidly rotating, the mantle, atmosphere and disk (MAD) form a continuous dynamic and thermodynamic structure. Lunar origin by condensation from a MAD Earth can explain the major characteristics of the Moon (Lock et al., this meeting). One of the greatest uncertainties in understanding the thermal states of planets during accretion is the changing composition and mass of the atmosphere. After the dispersal of the solar nebula, the thermal boundary condition imposed by the atmosphere can vary between silicate vapor and condensed ices. The coupled problem of atmospheric origin and planetary accretion can be used to constrain the many uncertainties in the growth and divergence of the terrestrial planets in our solar system.

Nanosecond repetitively pulsed discharges in air at atmospheric pressure—the spark regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pai, David Z.; Lacoste, Deanna A.; Laux, Christophe O.

2010-12-01

Nanosecond repetitively pulsed (NRP) spark discharges have been studied in atmospheric pressure air preheated to 1000 K. Measurements of spark initiation and stability, plasma dynamics, gas temperature and current-voltage characteristics of the spark regime are presented. Using 10 ns pulses applied repetitively at 30 kHz, we find that 2-400 pulses are required to initiate the spark, depending on the applied voltage. Furthermore, about 30-50 pulses are required for the spark discharge to reach steady state, following initiation. Based on space- and time-resolved optical emission spectroscopy, the spark discharge in steady state is found to ignite homogeneously in the discharge gap, without evidence of an initial streamer. Using measured emission from the N2 (C-B) 0-0 band, it is found that the gas temperature rises by several thousand Kelvin in the span of about 30 ns following the application of the high-voltage pulse. Current-voltage measurements show that up to 20-40 A of conduction current is generated, which corresponds to an electron number density of up to 1015 cm-3 towards the end of the high-voltage pulse. The discharge dynamics, gas temperature and electron number density are consistent with a streamer-less spark that develops homogeneously through avalanche ionization in volume. This occurs because the pre-ionization electron number density of about 1011 cm-3 produced by the high frequency train of pulses is above the critical density for streamer-less discharge development, which is shown to be about 108 cm-3.

Data Assimilation using Artificial Neural Networks for the global FSU atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cintra, Rosangela; Cocke, Steven; Campos Velho, Haroldo

2015-04-01

Data assimilation is the process by which measurements and model predictions are combined to obtain an accurate representation of the state of the modeled system. Uncertainty is the characteristic of the atmosphere, coupled with inevitable inadequacies in observations and computer models and increase errors in weather forecasts. Data assimilation is a technique to generate an initial condition to a weather or climate forecasts. This paper shows the results of a data assimilation technique using artificial neural networks (ANN) to obtain the initial condition to the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for the Florida State University in USA. The Local Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is implemented with Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The ANN data assimilation is made to emulate the initial condition from LETKF to run the FSUGSM. LETKF is a version of Kalman filter with Monte-Carlo ensembles of short-term forecasts to solve the data assimilation problem. The model FSUGSM is a multilevel (27 vertical levels) spectral primitive equation model with a vertical sigma coordinate. All variables are expanded horizontally in a truncated series of spherical harmonic functions (at resolution T63) and a transform technique is applied to calculate the physical processes in real space. The LETKF data assimilation experiments are based in synthetic observations data (surface pressure, absolute temperature, zonal component wind, meridional component wind and humidity). For the ANN data assimilation scheme, we use Multilayer Perceptron (MLP-DA) with supervised training algorithm where ANN receives input vectors with their corresponding response or target output from LETKF scheme. An automatic tool that finds the optimal representation to these ANNs configures the MLP-DA in this experiment. After the training process, the scheme MLP-DA is seen as a function of data assimilation where the inputs are observations and a short-range forecast to each model grid point. The ANNs were trained with data from each month of 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004. A hind-casting experiment for data assimilation cycle using MLP-DA was performed with synthetic observations for January 2005. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANN technique for atmospheric data assimilation, since the analyses (initial conditions) have similar quality to LETKF analyses. The major advantage of using MLP-DA is the computational performance, which is faster than LETKF. The reduced computational cost allows the inclusion of greater number of observations and new data sources and the use of high resolution of models, which ensures the accuracy of analysis and of its weather prediction

The Penn State ``Cyber Wind Facility''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasseur, James; Vijayakumar, Ganesh; Lavely, Adam; Nandi, Tarak; Jayaraman, Balaji; Jha, Pankaj; Dunbar, Alex; Motta-Mena, Javier; Haupt, Sue; Craven, Brent; Campbell, Robert; Schmitz, Sven; Paterson, Eric

2012-11-01

We describe development and results from a first generation Penn State ``Cyber Wind Facility'' (CWF). The aim of the CWF program is to develop and validate a computational ``facility'' that, in the most powerful HPC environments, will be basis for the design and implementation of cyber ``experiments'' at a level of complexity, fidelity and resolution to be treated similarly to field experiments on wind turbines operating in true atmospheric environments. We see cyber experiments as complimentary to field experiments in the sense that, whereas field data can record over ranges of events not representable in the cyber environment, with sufficient resolution, numerical accuracy, and HPC power, it is theoretically possible to collect cyber data from more true, albeit canonical, atmospheric environments can produce data from extraordinary numbers of sensors impossible to obtain in the field. I will describe our first generation CWF, from which we have quantified and analyzed useful details of the interactions between atmospheric turbulence and wind turbine loadings for an infinitely stiff commercial-scale turbine rotor in a canonical convective daytime atmospheric boundary layer over horizontally homogeneous rough flat terrain. Supported by the DOE Offshore Initiative and the National Science Foundation.

Could Flaring Stars Change Our Views of Their Planets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2016-12-01

As the exoplanet count continues to increase, we are making progressively more measurements of exoplanets outer atmospheres through spectroscopy. A new study, however, reveals that these measurements may be influenced by the planets hosts.Spectra From TransitsExoplanet spectra taken as they transit their hosts can tell us about the chemical compositions of their atmospheres. Detailed spectroscopic measurements of planet atmospheres should become even more common with the next generation of missions, such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), or Planetary Transits and Oscillations of Stars (PLATO).But is the spectrum that we measure in the brief moment of a planets transit necessarily representative of its spectrum all of the time? A team of scientists led by Olivia Venot (University of Leuven in Belgium) argue that it might not be, due to the influence of the planets stellar host.Atmospheric composition of a planet before flare impacts (dotted lines), during the steady state reached after a flare impact (dashed lines), and during the steady state reached after a second flare impact (solid lines). [Venot et al. 2016]The team suggests that when a hosts flares impact upon a planets atmosphere (especially likely in the case of active M-dwarfs that commonly harbor planetary systems), this activity may modify the chemical composition of the planets atmosphere. This would in turn alter the spectrum that we measure from the exoplanet.Modeling AtmospheresVenot and collaborators set out to test the effect of stellar flares on exoplanet atmospheres by modeling the atmospheres of two hypothetical planets orbiting the star AD Leo an active and flaring M dwarf located roughly 16 light-years away at two different distances. The team then examined what happened to the atmospheres, and to the resulting spectra that we would observe, when they were hit with a stellar flare typical of AD Leo.The difference in relative absorption between the initial steady-state and the instantaneous transmission spectra, obtained during the different phases of the flare. The left plot examines the impulsive and gradual phases, when the flare first impacts and then starts to pass. The peak photon flux occurs at 912 seconds. The right plot examines the return to a steady state over 1012 seconds, or roughly 30,000 years. [Adapted from Venot et al. 2016]The authors found that the planets atmospheric compositions were significantly affected by the incoming stellar flare. The sudden increase in incoming photon flux changed the chemical abundances of several important molecular species, like hydrogen and ammonia which resulted in changes to the spectrum that would be observed during the planets transit.Permanent ImpactIn addition to demonstrating that a planets atmospheric composition changes during and immediately after a flare impact, Venot and collaborators show that the chemical alteration isnt temporary: the planets atmosphere doesnt fully return to its original state after the flare passes. Instead, the authors find that it settles to a new steady-state composition that can be significantly different from the pre-flare composition.For a planet that is repeatedly hit by stellar flares, therefore, its atmospheric composition never actually settles to a steady state. Instead it is continually and permanently modified by its hosts activity.Venot and collaborators demonstrate that the variations of planetary spectra due to stellar flares should be easily detectable by future missions like JWST. We must therefore be careful about the conclusions we draw about planetary atmospheres from measurements of their spectra.CitationOlivia Venot et al 2016 ApJ 830 77. doi:10.3847/0004-637X/830/2/77

Acceleration of Cooling of Ice Giants by Condensation in Early Atmospheres

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurosaki, Kenji; Ikoma, Masahiro, E-mail: kurosaki.k@nagoya-u.jp, E-mail: ikoma@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp

The present infrared brightness of a planet originates partly from the accretion energy that the planet gained during its formation and hence provides important constraints to the planet formation process. A planet cools down from a hot initial state to the present state by losing energy through radiative emission from its atmosphere. Thus, the atmospheric properties affect the planetary cooling rate. Previous theories of giant planet cooling assume that the atmospheric composition is unchanged throughout the evolution. Planet formation theories, however, suggest that the atmospheres especially of ice giants are rich in heavy elements in the early stages. These heavy elementsmore » include condensable species such as H{sub 2}O, NH{sub 3}, and CH{sub 4}, which are expected to have a great impact on atmospheric temperature and thus on radiative emission through latent heat release. In this study we investigate the effect of such condensation on the planetary emission flux and quantify the impact on the cooling timescale. We then demonstrate that the latent heat of these species keeps the atmosphere hot and thus the emission flux high for billions of years, resulting in an acceleration of the cooling of ice giants. This sheds light on the long-standing problem that Uranus is much less bright than theoretically predicted and is different in brightness from Neptune in spite of the similarity in mass and radius. We also find that young ice giants with highly enriched atmospheres are much brighter in the mid-infrared than ice giants with non-enriched atmospheres. This provides important implications for future direct imaging of extrasolar ice giants.« less

Global Atmosphere Watch Workshop on Measurement-Model ...

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The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme coordinates high-quality observations of atmospheric composition from global to local scales with the aim to drive high-quality and high-impact science while co-producing a new generation of products and services. In line with this vision, GAW’s Scientific Advisory Group for Total Atmospheric Deposition (SAG-TAD) has a mandate to produce global maps of wet, dry and total atmospheric deposition for important atmospheric chemicals to enable research into biogeochemical cycles and assessments of ecosystem and human health effects. The most suitable scientific approach for this activity is the emerging technique of measurement-model fusion for total atmospheric deposition. This technique requires global-scale measurements of atmospheric trace gases, particles, precipitation composition and precipitation depth, as well as predictions of the same from global/regional chemical transport models. The fusion of measurement and model results requires data assimilation and mapping techniques. The objective of the GAW Workshop on Measurement-Model Fusion for Global Total Atmospheric Deposition (MMF-GTAD), an initiative of the SAG-TAD, was to review the state-of-the-science and explore the feasibility and methodology of producing, on a routine retrospective basis, global maps of atmospheric gas and aerosol concentrations as well as wet, dry and total deposition via measurement-model

Soil Moisture Controls on Rainfall and Temperature Variability: A Modeler Searches Through Observational Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

2010-01-01

The degree to which atmospheric processes respond to variations in soil moisture - a potentially important but largely untapped element of subseasonal to seasonal prediction - can be determined easily and directly for an atmospheric model but cannot be determined directly for nature through an analysis of observations. In atmospheric models) directions of causality can be artificially manipulated; we can avoid difficulties associated with the fact that atmospheric variations have a much larger impact on land state variations than vice-versa. In nature) on the other hand) the dominant direction of causality (the atmosphere forcing the ground) cannot be artificially "turned off") and the statistics associated with this dominant direction overwhelm those of the feedback signal. Observational data) however) do allow a number of indirect measures of landatmosphere feedback. This seminar reports on a series of joint analyses of observational and model data designed to illuminate the degree of land-atmosphere feedback present in the real world. The indirect measures do in fact suggest that feedback in nature, though small) is significant - enough to warrant the development of realistic land initialization strategies for subseasonal and seasonal forecasts.

Unstable behaviour of an upper ocean-atmosphere coupled model: role of atmospheric radiative processes and oceanic heat transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen-Solal, E.; Le Treut, H.

We describe the initial bias of the climate simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The atmospheric component is a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model, whereas the ocean component is limited to the upper ocean and includes a mixed layer whose depth is computed by the model. As the full ocean general circulation is not computed by the model, the heat transport within the ocean is prescribed. When modifying the prescribed heat transport we also affect the initial drift of the model. We analyze here one of the experiments where this drift is very strong, in order to study the key processes relating the changes in the ocean transport and the evolution of the model's climate. In this simulation, the ocean surface temperature cools by 1.5°C in 20 y. We can distinguish two different phases. During the first period of 5 y, the sea surface temperatures become cooler, particularly in the intertropical area, but the outgoing longwave radiation at the top-of-the-atmosphere increases very quickly, in particular at the end of the period. An off-line version of the model radiative code enables us to decompose this behaviour into different contributions (cloudiness, specific humidity, air and surface temperatures, surface albedo). This partitioning shows that the longwave radiation evolution is due to a decrease of high level cirrus clouds in the intertropical troposphere. The decrease of the cloud cover also leads to a decrease of the planetary albedo and therefore an increase of the net short wave radiation absorbed by the system. But the dominant factor is the strong destabilization by the longwave cooling, which is able to throw the system out of equilibrium. During the remaining of the simulation (second phase), the cooling induced by the destabilization at the top-of-the-atmosphere is transmitted to the surface by various processes of the climate system. Hence, we show that small variations of ocean heat transport can force the model from a stable to an unstable state via atmospheric processes which arise wen the tropics are cooling. Even if possibly overestimated by our GCM, this mechanism may be pertinent to the maintenance of present climatic conditions in the tropics. The simplifications inherent in our model's design allow us to investigate the mechanism in some detail.

Time-dependent Calculations of an Impact-triggered Runaway Greenhouse Atmosphere on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Segura, T. L.; Toon, O. B.; Colaprete, A.

2003-01-01

Large asteroid and comet impacts result in the production of thick (greater than tens of meters) global debris layers of 1500+ K and the release through precipitation of impact-injected steam and melting ground ice) of large amounts (greater than tens of meters global equivalent thickness) of water on the surface of Mars. Modeling shows that the surface of Mars is still above the freezing point of water after the rainout of the impact-injected steam and melting of subsurface ice. The energy remaining in the hot debris layer will allow evaporation of this water back into the atmosphere where it may rain out at a later time. Given a sufficiently rapid supply of this water to the atmosphere it will initiate a temporary "runaway" greenhouse state.

The Jormungand Global Climate State and Implications for the Neoproterozoic Snowball Paradox (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbot, D. S.; Voigt, A.; Koll, D.; Pierrehumbert, R. T.

2010-12-01

We present a previously undescribed global climate state, the Jormungand state, that is nearly ice-covered with a narrow (~10-15 degrees of latitude) strip of open ocean near the equator. This state is sustained by internal dynamics of the hydrological cycle and the cryosphere. There is a new bifurcation in global climate climate associated with the Jormungand state that leads to significant hysteresis. We investigate the Jormungand state in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, in multiple atmospheric GCMs coupled to a mixed layer ocean run in an idealized configuration, and we make a simple modification to the Budyko-Sellers model so that it produces Jormungand states. We suggest that the Jormungand state may be a better model for the Neoproterozoic glaciations (~635 Ma and ~715 Ma) than either the hard Snowball or the Slushball models. A Jormungand state would have a large enough region of open ocean near the equator to explain the micropaleontological and molecular clock evidence that photosynthetic eukaryotes thrived both before and immediately after the Neoproterozoic episodes. Additionally, since there is significant hysteresis associated with the Jormungand state, it can explain the cap carbonate sequences, the oxygen isotopic evidence that suggests high CO2 values, and the various evidence that suggests lifetimes for the glaciations of 1 Myrs or more. Since there is not significant hysteresis associated with the Slushball model, the Slushball model cannot explain these observations. Finally, we note that although the Slushball and Jormungand models share the characteristic of open ocean in the tropics, the Jormungand state is produced by entirely different physics, is entered through a new bifurcation in global climate, and is associated with significant hysteresis. Bifurcation diagram of global climate in the CAM global climate model, run with no continents, a 50 m mixed layer with no ocean heat transport, an eccentricity of zero, and annually and diurnally-varying insolation with a solar constant of 94% of present value. Red diamonds denote simulations initiated from ice-free conditions, blue circles denote simulations initiated from the Jormungand state, and green squares denote simulations initiated from the Snowball state. The black curve shows model equilibria, with dotted unstable solution branches (separatrices) and bifurcations drawn schematically.

Precipitation Phase Partitioning during Inland Penetrating Atmospheric River events: Role of Initial Land Surface Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudisill, W. J.; Flores, A. N.; FitzGerald, K.; Masarik, M. T.

2017-12-01

In the Western US, the occurrence (or lack thereof) of a handful of cool-season Atmospheric River (AR) events exerts significant controls on the seasonal water budget in many watersheds. The occurrence of these ARs can serve to alleviate drought and can also lead to significant flooding. In winter seasons, ARs typically bring warmer than average conditions and both rain and snow. To date, there has been little effort to understand how the land surface hydrological states prior to and during the arrival of ARs, acting on the surface water and energy balance, impact the onset, extent, and evolution of precipitation intensity and phase during AR events. While precipitation arriving as snow can contribute to seasonal snowpacks that lead to runoff later in hot/dry seasons, liquid precipitation can contribute to more rapid runoff or deplete existing snowpacks. The latter case, in which latent and advected heat from fallen rain causes snowmelt, is a key mechanism of flood and landslide-producing runoff in the Western United States. Motivated by an extensive, flood producing AR in 2010, we examine the sensitivity of hydrometeor phase to land surface forcings (sensible/latent heating, short/longwave radiation) using the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model in Central Idaho. Specifically, we evaluate whether pre-existing snow covered area extent, snow water equivalent (SWE), and cold-content influence the partitioning of precipitation into solid and liquid phases during inland AR events. Our experimental design leverages a long-term coupled land-atmosphere simulation with WRF over the study domain in order to evaluate how a set of particular AR events evolve when exposed to initial land surface states capturing a broad range of climatological conditions during the past 30 years.

Hydrodynamical Modeling of Hydrogen Escape from Rocky Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barringer, Daniel; Zugger, M.; Kasting, J.

2013-01-01

Hydrogen escape affects both the composition of primitive atmospheres of terrestrial planets and the planet’s state of oxidation. On Mars, hydrogen escape played a critical role in how long the planet remained in a warm wet state amenable to life. For both solar and extrasolar planets, hydrogen-rich atmospheres are better candidates for originating life by way of Miller-Urey-type prebiotic synthesis. However, calculating the rate of atmospheric hydrogen escape is difficult, for a number of reasons. First, the escape can be controlled either by diffusion through the homopause or by conditions in the upper atmosphere, whichever is slower. Second, both thermal and non-thermal escape mechanisms are typically important. Third, thermal escape itself can be subdivided into Jeans escape (thin upper atmosphere), and hydrodynamic escape, and hydrodynamic escape can be further subdivided into transonic escape and slower subsonic escape, depending on whether the exobase occurs above or below the sonic point. Additionally, the rate of escape for real terrestrial planet atmospheres, which are not 100% hydrogen, depends upon the concentration of infrared coolants, and upon heating and photochemistry driven largely by extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation. We have modified an existing 1-D model of hydrodynamic escape (F. Tian et al., JGR, 2008) to work in the high- hydrogen regime. Calculations are underway to determine hydrogen escape rates as a function of atmospheric H2 mixing ratio and the solar EUV flux. We will compare these rates with the estimated upper limit on the escape rate based on diffusion. Initial results for early Earth and Mars will later be extended to rocky exoplanets.

Problem-Solving in Las Vegas: Students Are Building Skills and a Global Network.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Budd, Gregory; Curry, Don

1995-01-01

Describes a project initiated at Silverado High School in Las Vegas, where students from Las Vegas and schools across the United States monitor the levels of radon in the atmosphere. Enables students to learn first hand about the collection, analysis, and interpretation of scientific data and to network with other students from the United States…

Analysis of Summertime Convective Initiation in Central Alabama Using the Land Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Robert S.; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2011-01-01

During the summer months in the southeastern United States, convective initiation presents a frequent challenge to operational forecasters. Thunderstorm development has traditionally been referred to as random due to their disorganized, sporadic appearance and lack of atmospheric forcing. Horizontal variations in land surface characteristics such as soil moisture, soil type, land and vegetation cover could possibly be a focus mechanism for afternoon convection during the summer months. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) provides a stand-alone land surface modeling framework that incorporates these varying soil and vegetation properties, antecedent precipitation, and atmospheric forcing to represent the soil state at high resolution. The use of LIS as a diagnostic tool may help forecasters to identify boundaries in land surface characteristics that could correlate to favored regions of convection initiation. The NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) team has been collaborating with the National Weather Service Office in Birmingham, AL to help incorporate LIS products into their operational forecasting methods. This paper highlights selected convective case dates from summer 2009 when synoptic forcing was weak, and identifies any boundaries in land surface characteristics that may have contributed to convective initiation. The LIS output depicts the effects of increased sensible heat flux from urban areas on the development of convection, as well as convection along gradients in land surface characteristics and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These features may promote mesoscale circulations and/or feedback processes that can either enhance or inhibit convection. With this output previously unavailable to operational forecasters, LIS provides a new tool to forecasters in order to help eliminate the randomness of summertime convective initiation.

Energy considerations in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)

DOE PAGES

Williamson, David L.; Olson, Jerry G.; Hannay, Cécile; ...

2015-06-30

An error in the energy formulation in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is identified and corrected. Ten year AMIP simulations are compared using the correct and incorrect energy formulations. Statistics of selected primary variables all indicate physically insignificant differences between the simulations, comparable to differences with simulations initialized with rounding sized perturbations. The two simulations are so similar mainly because of an inconsistency in the application of the incorrect energy formulation in the original CAM. CAM used the erroneous energy form to determine the states passed between the parameterizations, but used a form related to the correct formulation for themore » state passed from the parameterizations to the dynamical core. If the incorrect form is also used to determine the state passed to the dynamical core the simulations are significantly different. In addition, CAM uses the incorrect form for the global energy fixer, but that seems to be less important. The difference of the magnitude of the fixers using the correct and incorrect energy definitions is very small.« less

A Design Study of Onboard Navigation and Guidance During Aerocapture at Mars. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuhry, Douglas Paul

1988-01-01

The navigation and guidance of a high lift-to-drag ratio sample return vehicle during aerocapture at Mars are investigated. Emphasis is placed on integrated systems design, with guidance algorithm synthesis and analysis based on vehicle state and atmospheric density uncertainty estimates provided by the navigation system. The latter utilizes a Kalman filter for state vector estimation, with useful update information obtained through radar altimeter measurements and density altitude measurements based on IMU-measured drag acceleration. A three-phase guidance algorithm, featuring constant bank numeric predictor/corrector atmospheric capture and exit phases and an extended constant altitude cruise phase, is developed to provide controlled capture and depletion of orbital energy, orbital plane control, and exit apoapsis control. Integrated navigation and guidance systems performance are analyzed using a four degree-of-freedom computer simulation. The simulation environment includes an atmospheric density model with spatially correlated perturbations to provide realistic variations over the vehicle trajectory. Navigation filter initial conditions for the analysis are based on planetary approach optical navigation results. Results from a selection of test cases are presented to give insight into systems performance.

A new instrument for measuring atmospheric turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, Danny C.; Edwards, Brett; Stelly, Zak; Gorgievska, Ivana; Westpfahl, David J.; Klinglesmith, Daniel A., III; Creech-Eakman, Michelle J.

2004-10-01

The Magdalena Ridge Observatory is a congressionally funded project to deliver a state-of-the-art observatory on the Magdalena Ridge in New Mexico to provide astronomical research, educational and outreach programs to the state. In this paper we report results from one of our undergraduate projects being run at New Mexico Tech. This project focuses on the design and characterization of a novel instrument for sensing the atmospheric flow instabilities related to seeing at the observatory site. The instrument attempts to find the power of turbulence on millisecond time scales by measuring a voltage difference between two active microphones. The principles behind the instrument are explored here and a description of the limitations of the current experimental implementation is given. Initial results from the experiment are presented and compared with simultaneous measurements from a co-located Differential Image Motion Monitor. The instrument is shown to be a valuable and robust tool for monitoring the atmospheric conditions during site testing campaigns, but further data will be needed to confirm the precise nature of the correlation between measurements made with this system and more conventional seeing metrics.

Effects of Density Stratification in Compressible Polytropic Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manduca, Cathryn M.; Anders, Evan H.; Bordwell, Baylee; Brown, Benjamin P.; Burns, Keaton J.; Lecoanet, Daniel; Oishi, Jeffrey S.; Vasil, Geoffrey M.

2017-11-01

We study compressible convection in polytropically-stratified atmospheres, exploring the effect of varying the total density stratification. Using the Dedalus pseudospectral framework, we perform 2D and 3D simulations. In these experiments we vary the number of density scale heights, studying atmospheres with little stratification (1 density scale height) and significant stratification (5 density scale heights). We vary the level of convective driving (quantified by the Rayleigh number), and study flows at similar Mach numbers by fixing the initial superadiabaticity. We explore the differences between 2D and 3D simulations, and in particular study the equilibration between different reservoirs of energy (kinetic, potential and internal) in the evolved states.

Sensitivity of Land Surface Parameters on Thunderstorm Simulation through HRLDAS-WRF Coupling Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Dinesh; Kumar, Krishan; Mohanty, U. C.; Kisore Osuri, Krishna

2016-07-01

Land surface characteristics play an important role in large scale, regional and mesoscale atmospheric process. Representation of land surface characteristics can be improved through coupling of mesoscale atmospheric models with land surface models. Mesoscale atmospheric models depend on Land Surface Models (LSM) to provide land surface variables such as fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum for lower boundary layer evolution. Studies have shown that land surface properties such as soil moisture, soil temperature, soil roughness, vegetation cover, have considerable effect on lower boundary layer. Although, the necessity to initialize soil moisture accurately in NWP models is widely acknowledged, monitoring soil moisture at regional and global scale is a very tough task due to high spatial and temporal variability. As a result, the available observation network is unable to provide the required spatial and temporal data for the most part of the globe. Therefore, model for land surface initializations rely on updated land surface properties from LSM. The solution for NWP land-state initialization can be found by combining data assimilation techniques, satellite-derived soil data, and land surface models. Further, it requires an intermediate step to use observed rainfall, satellite derived surface insolation, and meteorological analyses to run an uncoupled (offline) integration of LSM, so that the evolution of modeled soil moisture can be forced by observed forcing conditions. Therefore, for accurate land-state initialization, high resolution land data assimilation system (HRLDAS) is used to provide the essential land surface parameters. Offline-coupling of HRLDAS-WRF has shown much improved results over Delhi, India for four thunder storm events. The evolution of land surface variables particularly soil moisture, soil temperature and surface fluxes have provided more realistic condition. Results have shown that most of domain part became wetter and warmer after assimilation of soil moisture and soil temperature at the initial condition which helped to improve the exchange fluxes at lower atmospheric level. Mixing ratio were increased along with elevated theta-e at lower level giving a signature of improvement in LDAS experiment leading to a suitable condition for convection. In the analysis, moisture convergence, mixing ratio and vertical velocities have improved significantly in terms of intensity and time lag. Surface variables like soil moisture, soil temperature, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux have progressed in a possible realistic pattern. Above discussion suggests that assimilation of soil moisture and soil temperature improves the overall simulations significantly.

Interactive Vegetation Phenology, Soil Moisture, and Monthly Temperature Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R. D.; Walker, G. K.

2015-01-01

The time scales that characterize the variations of vegetation phenology are generally much longer than those that characterize atmospheric processes. The explicit modeling of phenological processes in an atmospheric forecast system thus has the potential to provide skill to subseasonal or seasonal forecasts. We examine this possibility here using a forecast system fitted with a dynamic vegetation phenology model. We perform three experiments, each consisting of 128 independent warm-season monthly forecasts: 1) an experiment in which both soil moisture states and carbon states (e.g., those determining leaf area index) are initialized realistically, 2) an experiment in which the carbon states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts, and 3) an experiment in which both the carbon and soil moisture states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts. Evaluating the monthly forecasts of air temperature in each ensemble against observations, as well as quantifying the inherent predictability of temperature within each ensemble, shows that dynamic phenology can indeed contribute positively to subseasonal forecasts, though only to a small extent, with an impact dwarfed by that of soil moisture.

Tests of oceanic stochastic parameterisation in a seasonal forecast system.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Fenwick; Andrejczuk, Miroslaw; Juricke, Stephan; Zanna, Laure; Palmer, Tim

2015-04-01

Over seasonal time scales, our aim is to compare the relative impact of ocean initial condition and model uncertainty, upon the ocean forecast skill and reliability. Over seasonal timescales we compare four oceanic stochastic parameterisation schemes applied in a 1x1 degree ocean model (NEMO) with a fully coupled T159 atmosphere (ECMWF IFS). The relative impacts upon the ocean of the resulting eddy induced activity, wind forcing and typical initial condition perturbations are quantified. Following the historical success of stochastic parameterisation in the atmosphere, two of the parameterisations tested were multiplicitave in nature: A stochastic variation of the Gent-McWilliams scheme and a stochastic diffusion scheme. We also consider a surface flux parameterisation (similar to that introduced by Williams, 2012), and stochastic perturbation of the equation of state (similar to that introduced by Brankart, 2013). The amplitude of the stochastic term in the Williams (2012) scheme was set to the physically reasonable amplitude considered in that paper. The amplitude of the stochastic term in each of the other schemes was increased to the limits of model stability. As expected, variability was increased. Up to 1 month after initialisation, ensemble spread induced by stochastic parameterisation is greater than that induced by the atmosphere, whilst being smaller than the initial condition perturbations currently used at ECMWF. After 1 month, the wind forcing becomes the dominant source of model ocean variability, even at depth.

Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

2017-06-01

Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.