Toward inflation models compatible with the no-boundary proposal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hwang, Dong-il; Yeom, Dong-han, E-mail: dongil.j.hwang@gmail.com, E-mail: innocent.yeom@gmail.com

2014-06-01

In this paper, we investigate various inflation models in the context of the no-boundary proposal. We propose that a good inflation model should satisfy three conditions: observational constraints, plausible initial conditions, and naturalness of the model. For various inflation models, we assign the probability to each initial condition using the no-boundary proposal and define a quantitative standard, typicality, to check whether the model satisfies the observational constraints with probable initial conditions. There are three possible ways to satisfy the typicality criterion: there was pre-inflation near the high energy scale, the potential is finely tuned or the inflationary field space ismore » unbounded, or there are sufficient number of fields that contribute to inflation. The no-boundary proposal rejects some of naive inflation models, explains some of traditional doubts on inflation, and possibly, can have observational consequences.« less

Assessment of PDF Micromixing Models Using DNS Data for a Two-Step Reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Kuochen; Chakrabarti, Mitali; Fox, Rodney O.; Hill, James C.

1996-11-01

Although the probability density function (PDF) method is known to treat the chemical reaction terms exactly, its application to turbulent reacting flows have been overshadowed by the ability to model the molecular mixing terms satisfactorily. In this study, two PDF molecular mixing models, the linear-mean-square-estimation (LMSE or IEM) model and the generalized interaction-by-exchange-with-the-mean (GIEM) model, are compared with the DNS data in decaying turbulence with a two-step parallel-consecutive reaction and two segregated initial conditions: ``slabs" and ``blobs". Since the molecular mixing model is expected to have a strong effect on the mean values of chemical species under such initial conditions, the model evaluation is intended to answer the following questions: Can the PDF models predict the mean values of chemical species correctly with completely segregated initial conditions? (2) Is a single molecular mixing timescale sufficient for the PDF models to predict the mean values with different initial conditions? (3) Will the chemical reactions change the molecular mixing timescales of the reacting species enough to affect the accuracy of the model's prediction for the mean values of chemical species?

Spin-up simulation behaviors in a climate model to build a basement of long-time simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Xue, Y.; De Sales, F.

2015-12-01

It is essential to develop start-up information when conducting long-time climate simulation. In case that the initial condition is already available from the previous simulation of same type model this does not necessary; however, if not, model needs spin-up simulation to have adjusted and balanced initial condition with the model climatology. Otherwise, a severe spin may take several years. Some of model variables such as deep soil temperature fields and temperature in ocean deep layers in initial fields would affect model's further long-time simulation due to their long residual memories. To investigate the important factor for spin-up simulation in producing an atmospheric initial condition, we had conducted two different spin-up simulations when no atmospheric condition is available from exist datasets. One simulation employed atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM), namely Global Forecast System (GFS) of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), while the other employed atmosphere-ocean coupled global circulation model (CGCM), namely Climate Forecast System (CFS) of NCEP. Both models share the atmospheric modeling part and only difference is in applying of ocean model coupling, which is conducted by Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4) of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in CFS. During a decade of spin-up simulation, prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) fields of target year is forced to the GFS daily basis, while CFS digested only first time step ocean condition and freely iterated for the rest of the period. Both models were forced by CO2 condition and solar constant given from the target year. Our analyses of spin-up simulation results indicate that freely conducted interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere is more helpful to produce the initial condition for the target year rather than produced by fixed SST forcing. Since the GFS used prescribed forcing exactly given from the target year, this result is unexpected. The detail analysis will be discussed in this presentation.

A simple analytical infiltration model for short-duration rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaiwen; Yang, Xiaohua; Liu, Xiaomang; Liu, Changming

2017-12-01

Many infiltration models have been proposed to simulate infiltration process. Different initial soil conditions and non-uniform initial water content can lead to infiltration simulation errors, especially for short-duration rainfall (SHR). Few infiltration models are specifically derived to eliminate the errors caused by the complex initial soil conditions. We present a simple analytical infiltration model for SHR infiltration simulation, i.e., Short-duration Infiltration Process model (SHIP model). The infiltration simulated by 5 models (i.e., SHIP (high) model, SHIP (middle) model, SHIP (low) model, Philip model and Parlange model) were compared based on numerical experiments and soil column experiments. In numerical experiments, SHIP (middle) and Parlange models had robust solutions for SHR infiltration simulation of 12 typical soils under different initial soil conditions. The absolute values of percent bias were less than 12% and the values of Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency were greater than 0.83. Additionally, in soil column experiments, infiltration rate fluctuated in a range because of non-uniform initial water content. SHIP (high) and SHIP (low) models can simulate an infiltration range, which successfully covered the fluctuation range of the observed infiltration rate. According to the robustness of solutions and the coverage of fluctuation range of infiltration rate, SHIP model can be integrated into hydrologic models to simulate SHR infiltration process and benefit the flood forecast.

A probabilistic drought forecasting framework: A combined dynamical and statistical approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Hongxiang; Moradkhani, Hamid; Zarekarizi, Mahkameh

In order to improve drought forecasting skill, this study develops a probabilistic drought forecasting framework comprised of dynamical and statistical modeling components. The novelty of this study is to seek the use of data assimilation to quantify initial condition uncertainty with the Monte Carlo ensemble members, rather than relying entirely on the hydrologic model or land surface model to generate a single deterministic initial condition, as currently implemented in the operational drought forecasting systems. Next, the initial condition uncertainty is quantified through data assimilation and coupled with a newly developed probabilistic drought forecasting model using a copula function. The initialmore » condition at each forecast start date are sampled from the data assimilation ensembles for forecast initialization. Finally, seasonal drought forecasting products are generated with the updated initial conditions. This study introduces the theory behind the proposed drought forecasting system, with an application in Columbia River Basin, Pacific Northwest, United States. Results from both synthetic and real case studies suggest that the proposed drought forecasting system significantly improves the seasonal drought forecasting skills and can facilitate the state drought preparation and declaration, at least three months before the official state drought declaration.« less

Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larow, T. E.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

1998-01-01

A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The initialization scheme is used to initialize the coupled model for seasonal forecasting the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution T-42. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version of the Hamburg's climate group model described in Latif (1987) and Latif et al. (1993). The coupling is synchronous with information exchanged every two model hours. Using ECMWF atmospheric daily analysis and observed monthly mean SSTs, two, 1-year, time-dependent, Newtonian relaxation were performed using the coupled model prior to conducting the seasonal forecasts. The coupled initializations were conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988. Newtonian relaxation was applied to the prognostic atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature and dew point depression equations. In the ocean model the relaxation was applied to the surface temperature. Two, 10-member ensemble integrations were conducted to examine the impact of the coupled initialization on the seasonal forecasts. The initial conditions used for the ensembles are the ocean's final state after the initialization and the atmospheric initial conditions are ECMWF analysis. Examination of the SST root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Niño-3 and Niño-4 regions for the 2 seasonal forecasts, show closer agreement between the initialized forecast than two, 10-member non-initialized ensemble forecasts. The main conclusion here is that a single forecast with the coupled initialization outperforms, in SST anomaly prediction, against each of the control forecasts (members of the ensemble) which do not include such an initialization, indicating possible importance for the inclusion of the atmosphere during the coupled initialization.

Definition of boundary and initial conditions in the analysis of saturated ground-water flow systems - An introduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franke, O. Lehn; Reilly, Thomas E.; Bennett, Gordon D.

1987-01-01

Accurate definition of boundary and initial conditions is an essential part of conceptualizing and modeling ground-water flow systems. This report describes the properties of the seven most common boundary conditions encountered in ground-water systems and discusses major aspects of their application. It also discusses the significance and specification of initial conditions and evaluates some common errors in applying this concept to ground-water-system models. An appendix is included that discusses what the solution of a differential equation represents and how the solution relates to the boundary conditions defining the specific problem. This report considers only boundary conditions that apply to saturated ground-water systems.

CFD Modeling of Superheated Fuel Sprays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, M. S.

2008-01-01

An understanding of fuel atomization and vaporization behavior at superheat conditions is identified to be a topic of importance in the design of modern supersonic engines. As a part of the NASA aeronautics initiative, we have undertaken an assessment study to establish baseline accuracy of existing CFD models used in the evaluation of a ashing jet. In a first attempt towards attaining this goal, we have incorporated an existing superheat vaporization model into our spray solution procedure but made some improvements to combine the existing models valid at superheated conditions with the models valid at stable (non-superheat) evaporating conditions. Also, the paper reports some validation results based on the experimental data obtained from the literature for a superheated spray generated by the sudden release of pressurized R134A from a cylindrical nozzle. The predicted profiles for both gas and droplet velocities show a reasonable agreement with the measured data and exhibit a self-similar pattern similar to the correlation reported in the literature. Because of the uncertainty involved in the specification of the initial conditions, we have investigated the effect of initial droplet size distribution on the validation results. The predicted results were found to be sensitive to the initial conditions used for the droplet size specification. However, it was shown that decent droplet size comparisons could be achieved with properly selected initial conditions, For the case considered, it is reasonable to assume that the present vaporization models are capable of providing a reasonable qualitative description for the two-phase jet characteristics generated by a ashing jet. However, there remains some uncertainty with regard to the specification of certain initial spray conditions and there is a need for experimental data on separate gas and liquid temperatures in order to validate the vaporization models based on the Adachi correlation for a liquid involving R134A.

Towards adjoint-based inversion of time-dependent mantle convection with nonlinear viscosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dunzhu; Gurnis, Michael; Stadler, Georg

2017-04-01

We develop and study an adjoint-based inversion method for the simultaneous recovery of initial temperature conditions and viscosity parameters in time-dependent mantle convection from the current mantle temperature and historic plate motion. Based on a realistic rheological model with temperature-dependent and strain-rate-dependent viscosity, we formulate the inversion as a PDE-constrained optimization problem. The objective functional includes the misfit of surface velocity (plate motion) history, the misfit of the current mantle temperature, and a regularization for the uncertain initial condition. The gradient of this functional with respect to the initial temperature and the uncertain viscosity parameters is computed by solving the adjoint of the mantle convection equations. This gradient is used in a pre-conditioned quasi-Newton minimization algorithm. We study the prospects and limitations of the inversion, as well as the computational performance of the method using two synthetic problems, a sinking cylinder and a realistic subduction model. The subduction model is characterized by the migration of a ridge toward a trench whereby both plate motions and subduction evolve. The results demonstrate: (1) for known viscosity parameters, the initial temperature can be well recovered, as in previous initial condition-only inversions where the effective viscosity was given; (2) for known initial temperature, viscosity parameters can be recovered accurately, despite the existence of trade-offs due to ill-conditioning; (3) for the joint inversion of initial condition and viscosity parameters, initial condition and effective viscosity can be reasonably recovered, but the high dimension of the parameter space and the resulting ill-posedness may limit recovery of viscosity parameters.

A two-phase flow model for submarine granular flows: With an application to collapse of deeply-submerged granular columns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Cheng-Hsien; Huang, Zhenhua

2018-05-01

The collapse process of a submerged granular column is strongly affected by its initial packing. Previous models for particle response time, which is used to quantify the drag force between the solid and liquid phases in rheology-based two-phase flow models, have difficulty in simulating the collapse process of granular columns with different initial concentrations (initial packing conditions). This study introduces a new model for particle response time, which enables us to satisfactorily model the drag force between the two phases for a wide range of volume concentration. The present model can give satisfactory results for both loose and dense packing conditions. The numerical results have shown that (i) the initial packing affects the occurrence of contractancy/diltancy behavior during the collapse process, (ii) the general buoyancy and drag force are strongly affected by the initial packing through contractancy and diltancy, and (iii) the general buoyancy and drag force can destabilize the granular material in loose packing condition but stabilize the granular material in dense packing condition. The results have shown that the collapse process of a densely-packed granular column is more sensitive to particle response time than that of a loosely-packed granular column.

Impact of high resolution land surface initialization in Indian summer monsoon simulation using a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Unnikrishnan, C. K.; Rajeevan, M.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara

2016-06-01

The direct impact of high resolution land surface initialization on the forecast bias in a regional climate model in recent years over Indian summer monsoon region is investigated. Two sets of regional climate model simulations are performed, one with a coarse resolution land surface initial conditions and second one used a high resolution land surface data for initial condition. The results show that all monsoon years respond differently to the high resolution land surface initialization. The drought monsoon year 2009 and extended break periods were more sensitive to the high resolution land surface initialization. These results suggest that the drought monsoon year predictions can be improved with high resolution land surface initialization. Result also shows that there are differences in the response to the land surface initialization within the monsoon season. Case studies of heat wave and a monsoon depression simulation show that, the model biases were also improved with high resolution land surface initialization. These results show the need for a better land surface initialization strategy in high resolution regional models for monsoon forecasting.

MAGI: many-component galaxy initializer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miki, Yohei; Umemura, Masayuki

2018-04-01

Providing initial conditions is an essential procedure for numerical simulations of galaxies. The initial conditions for idealized individual galaxies in N-body simulations should resemble observed galaxies and be dynamically stable for time-scales much longer than their characteristic dynamical times. However, generating a galaxy model ab initio as a system in dynamical equilibrium is a difficult task, since a galaxy contains several components, including a bulge, disc, and halo. Moreover, it is desirable that the initial-condition generator be fast and easy to use. We have now developed an initial-condition generator for galactic N-body simulations that satisfies these requirements. The developed generator adopts a distribution-function-based method, and it supports various kinds of density models, including custom-tabulated inputs and the presence of more than one disc. We tested the dynamical stability of systems generated by our code, representing early- and late-type galaxies, with N = 2097 152 and 8388 608 particles, respectively, and we found that the model galaxies maintain their initial distributions for at least 1 Gyr. The execution times required to generate the two models were 8.5 and 221.7 seconds, respectively, which is negligible compared to typical execution times for N-body simulations. The code is provided as open-source software and is publicly and freely available at https://bitbucket.org/ymiki/magi.

Improving Air Quality Forecasts with AURA Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newchurch, M. J.; Biazer, A.; Khan, M.; Koshak, W. J.; Nair, U.; Fuller, K.; Wang, L.; Parker, Y.; Williams, R.; Liu, X.

2008-01-01

Past studies have identified model initial and boundary conditions as sources of reducible errors in air-quality simulations. In particular, improving the initial condition improves the accuracy of short-term forecasts as it allows for the impact of local emissions to be realized by the model and improving boundary conditions improves long range transport through the model domain, especially in recirculating anticyclones. During the August 2006 period, we use AURA/OMI ozone measurements along with MODIS and CALIPSO aerosol observations to improve the initial and boundary conditions of ozone and Particulate Matter. Assessment of the model by comparison of the control run and satellite assimilation run to the IONS06 network of ozonesonde observations, which comprise the densest ozone sounding campaign ever conducted in North America, to AURA/TES ozone profile measurements, and to the EPA ground network of ozone and PM measurements will show significant improvement in the CMAQ calculations that use AURA initial and boundary conditions. Further analyses of lightning occurrences from ground and satellite observations and AURA/OMI NO2 column abundances will identify the lightning NOx signal evident in OMI measurements and suggest pathways for incorporating the lightning and NO2 data into the CMAQ simulations.

Effects of random initial conditions on the dynamical scaling behaviors of a fixed-energy Manna sandpile model in one dimension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Sungchul; Kim, Jin Min

2015-01-01

For a fixed-energy (FE) Manna sandpile model in one dimension, we investigate the effects of random initial conditions on the dynamical scaling behavior of an order parameter. In the FE Manna model, the density ρ of total particles is conserved, and an absorbing phase transition occurs at ρc as ρ varies. In this work, we show that, for a given ρ , random initial distributions of particles lead to the domain structure in which domains with particle densities higher and lower than ρc alternate with each other. In the domain structure, the dominant length scale is the average domain length, which increases via the coalescence of adjacent domains. At ρc, the domain structure slows down the decay of an order parameter and also causes anomalous finite-size effects, i.e., power-law decay followed by an exponential one before the quasisteady state. As a result, the interplay of particle conservation and random initial conditions causes the domain structure, which is the origin of the anomalous dynamical scaling behaviors for random initial conditions.

Should tsunami simulations include a nonzero initial horizontal velocity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lotto, Gabriel C.; Nava, Gabriel; Dunham, Eric M.

2017-08-01

Tsunami propagation in the open ocean is most commonly modeled by solving the shallow water wave equations. These equations require initial conditions on sea surface height and depth-averaged horizontal particle velocity or, equivalently, horizontal momentum. While most modelers assume that initial velocity is zero, Y.T. Song and collaborators have argued for nonzero initial velocity, claiming that horizontal displacement of a sloping seafloor imparts significant horizontal momentum to the ocean. They show examples in which this effect increases the resulting tsunami height by a factor of two or more relative to models in which initial velocity is zero. We test this claim with a "full-physics" integrated dynamic rupture and tsunami model that couples the elastic response of the Earth to the linearized acoustic-gravitational response of a compressible ocean with gravity; the model self-consistently accounts for seismic waves in the solid Earth, acoustic waves in the ocean, and tsunamis (with dispersion at short wavelengths). Full-physics simulations of subduction zone megathrust ruptures and tsunamis in geometries with a sloping seafloor confirm that substantial horizontal momentum is imparted to the ocean. However, almost all of that initial momentum is carried away by ocean acoustic waves, with negligible momentum imparted to the tsunami. We also compare tsunami propagation in each simulation to that predicted by an equivalent shallow water wave simulation with varying assumptions regarding initial velocity. We find that the initial horizontal velocity conditions proposed by Song and collaborators consistently overestimate the tsunami amplitude and predict an inconsistent wave profile. Finally, we determine tsunami initial conditions that are rigorously consistent with our full-physics simulations by isolating the tsunami waves from ocean acoustic and seismic waves at some final time, and backpropagating the tsunami waves to their initial state by solving the adjoint problem. The resulting initial conditions have negligible horizontal velocity.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Cluster-cluster clustering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, J.; Dekel, A.; Efstathiou, G.; Frenk, C. S.

1985-01-01

The cluster correlation function xi sub c(r) is compared with the particle correlation function, xi(r) in cosmological N-body simulations with a wide range of initial conditions. The experiments include scale-free initial conditions, pancake models with a coherence length in the initial density field, and hybrid models. Three N-body techniques and two cluster-finding algorithms are used. In scale-free models with white noise initial conditions, xi sub c and xi are essentially identical. In scale-free models with more power on large scales, it is found that the amplitude of xi sub c increases with cluster richness; in this case the clusters give a biased estimate of the particle correlations. In the pancake and hybrid models (with n = 0 or 1), xi sub c is steeper than xi, but the cluster correlation length exceeds that of the points by less than a factor of 2, independent of cluster richness. Thus the high amplitude of xi sub c found in studies of rich clusters of galaxies is inconsistent with white noise and pancake models and may indicate a primordial fluctuation spectrum with substantial power on large scales.

Forecasting of dissolved oxygen in the Guanting reservoir using an optimized NGBM (1,1) model.

PubMed

An, Yan; Zou, Zhihong; Zhao, Yanfei

2015-03-01

An optimized nonlinear grey Bernoulli model was proposed by using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the parameter optimization problem. In addition, each item in the first-order accumulated generating sequence was set in turn as an initial condition to determine which alternative would yield the highest forecasting accuracy. To test the forecasting performance, the optimized models with different initial conditions were then used to simulate dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Guanting reservoir inlet and outlet (China). The empirical results show that the optimized model can remarkably improve forecasting accuracy, and the particle swarm optimization technique is a good tool to solve parameter optimization problems. What's more, the optimized model with an initial condition that performs well in in-sample simulation may not do as well as in out-of-sample forecasting. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Assessment of initial soil moisture conditions for event-based rainfall-runoff modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramblay, Yves; Bouvier, Christophe; Martin, Claude; Didon-Lescot, Jean-François; Todorovik, Dragana; Domergue, Jean-Marc

2010-06-01

Flash floods are the most destructive natural hazards that occur in the Mediterranean region. Rainfall-runoff models can be very useful for flash flood forecasting and prediction. Event-based models are very popular for operational purposes, but there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the initial moisture conditions estimation prior to a flood event. This paper aims to compare several soil moisture indicators: local Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements of soil moisture, modelled soil moisture through the Interaction-Sol-Biosphère-Atmosphère (ISBA) component of the SIM model (Météo-France), antecedent precipitation and base flow. A modelling approach based on the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number method (SCS-CN) is used to simulate the flood events in a small headwater catchment in the Cevennes region (France). The model involves two parameters: one for the runoff production, S, and one for the routing component, K. The S parameter can be interpreted as the maximal water retention capacity, and acts as the initial condition of the model, depending on the antecedent moisture conditions. The model was calibrated from a 20-flood sample, and led to a median Nash value of 0.9. The local TDR measurements in the deepest layers of soil (80-140 cm) were found to be the best predictors for the S parameter. TDR measurements averaged over the whole soil profile, outputs of the SIM model, and the logarithm of base flow also proved to be good predictors, whereas antecedent precipitations were found to be less efficient. The good correlations observed between the TDR predictors and the S calibrated values indicate that monitoring soil moisture could help setting the initial conditions for simplified event-based models in small basins.

Persistence of initial conditions in continental scale air quality simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogrefe, Christian; Roselle, Shawn J.; Bash, Jesse O.

2017-07-01

This study investigates the effect of initial conditions (IC) for pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere and soil on simulated air quality for two continental-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applications. One of these applications was performed for springtime and the second for summertime. Results show that a spin-up period of ten days commonly used in regional-scale applications may not be sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged surface ozone concentrations everywhere while 20 days were found to be sufficient for the entire domain for the spring case and almost the entire domain for the summer case. For the summer case, differences were found to persist longer aloft due to circulation of air masses and even a spin-up period of 30 days was not sufficient to reduce the effects of ICs to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged layer 34 ozone concentrations over the southwestern portion of the modeling domain. Analysis of the effect of soil initial conditions for the CMAQ bidirectional NH3 exchange model shows that during springtime they can have an important effect on simulated inorganic aerosols concentrations for time periods of one month or longer. The effects are less pronounced during other seasons. The results, while specific to the modeling domain and time periods simulated here, suggest that modeling protocols need to be scrutinized for a given application and that it cannot be assumed that commonly-used spin-up periods are necessarily sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions on model results to an acceptable level. What constitutes an acceptable level of difference cannot be generalized and will depend on the particular application, time period and species of interest. Moreover, as the application of air quality models is being expanded to cover larger geographical domains and as these models are increasingly being coupled with other modeling systems to better represent air-surface-water exchanges, the effects of model initialization in such applications needs to be studied in future work.

Hysteresis in simulations of malaria transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, Teresa K.; Qiu, Xin; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2017-10-01

Malaria transmission is a complex system and in many parts of the world is closely related to climate conditions. However, studies on environmental determinants of malaria generally consider only concurrent climate conditions and ignore the historical or initial conditions of the system. Here, we demonstrate the concept of hysteresis in malaria transmission, defined as non-uniqueness of the relationship between malaria prevalence and concurrent climate conditions. We show the dependence of simulated malaria transmission on initial prevalence and the initial level of human immunity in the population. Using realistic time series of environmental variables, we quantify the effect of hysteresis in a modeled population. In a set of numerical experiments using HYDREMATS, a field-tested mechanistic model of malaria transmission, the simulated maximum malaria prevalence depends on both the initial prevalence and the initial level of human immunity in the population. We found the effects of initial conditions to be of comparable magnitude to the effects of interannual variability in environmental conditions in determining malaria prevalence. The memory associated with this hysteresis effect is longer in high transmission settings than in low transmission settings. Our results show that efforts to simulate and forecast malaria transmission must consider the exposure history of a location as well as the concurrent environmental drivers.

Stability issues of nonlocal gravity during primordial inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belgacem, Enis; Cusin, Giulia; Foffa, Stefano; Maggiore, Michele; Mancarella, Michele

2018-01-01

We study the cosmological evolution of some nonlocal gravity models, when the initial conditions are set during a phase of primordial inflation. We examine in particular three models, the so-called RT, RR and Δ4 models, previously introduced by our group. We find that, during inflation, the RT model has a viable background evolution, but at the level of cosmological perturbations develops instabilities that make it nonviable. In contrast, the RR and Δ4 models have a viable evolution even when their initial conditions are set during a phase of primordial inflation.

Biases in Global Reanalysis Datasets Undermine Intraseasonal Prediction Skill Xiouhua Fu1, Bin Wang, June-Yi Lee, Wanqiu Wang, and Li Gao 1International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), SOEST, University of Hawaii at Manoa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, J. X.

2010-12-01

Predictability of Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) relies on both initial conditions and lower boundary conditions (or atmosphere-ocean interaction). The atmospheric reanalysis datasets are commonly used as initial conditions. Here, the biases of three reanalysis datasets (NCEP_R1, _R2, and ERA_Interim) in describing ISO were revealed and the impacts of these biases as initial conditions on ISO prediction skills were assessed. A signal recovery method is proposed to improve ISO prediction. All three reanalysis datasets underestimate the intensity of the equatorial eastward-propagating ISO. When these reanalyses are used as initial conditions in the ECHAM4-UH hybrid coupled model (UH_HCM hereinafter), skillful ISO prediction reaches only about one week for both the 850-hPa zonal winds (U850) and rainfall over Southeast Asia and the global tropics. An enhanced nudging of divergence field is shown to significantly improve the initial conditions, resulting in an extension of the skillful rainfall prediction by 2-3 days and U850 prediction by 5-10 days. After recovering the ISO signals in the original reanalyses, the resultant initial conditions contain ISO strength much closer to the observed. Use of these signal-recovered reanalyses as initial conditions extends the skillful prediction of U850 and rainfall, respectively, to 23 and 18 days over Southeast Asia, and to 20 and 10 days over the global tropics. This finding underlines the urgent need to improve data assimilation systems and observations in advancement of ISO prediction by offering better initial conditions. It is also found that small-scale synoptic weather disturbances in initial conditions generally increase ISO prediction skill. The UH_HCM has better rainfall prediction than the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) over Southeast Asia and both models suffer the prediction barrier over the Maritime Continent.

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir.

PubMed

Ford, Kevin R; Harrington, Constance A; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Peter J; St Clair, J Bradley

2016-11-01

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures ('forcing') typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures ('chilling') while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ford, Kevin R.; Harrington, Constance A.; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Petter J.; St. Clair, Bradley

2016-01-01

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (“forcing”) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (“chilling”) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, towards lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution.

Perturbations in the initial soil moisture conditions: Impacts on hydrologic simulation in a large river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niroula, Sundar; Halder, Subhadeep; Ghosh, Subimal

2018-06-01

Real time hydrologic forecasting requires near accurate initial condition of soil moisture; however, continuous monitoring of soil moisture is not operational in many regions, such as, in Ganga basin, extended in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. Here, we examine the impacts of perturbation/error in the initial soil moisture conditions on simulated soil moisture and streamflow in Ganga basin and its propagation, during the summer monsoon season (June to September). This provides information regarding the required minimum duration of model simulation for attaining the model stability. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity model for hydrological simulations after validation. Multiple hydrologic simulations are performed, each of 21 days, initialized on every 5th day of the monsoon season for deficit, surplus and normal monsoon years. Each of these simulations is performed with the initial soil moisture condition obtained from long term runs along with positive and negative perturbations. The time required for the convergence of initial errors is obtained for all the cases. We find a quick convergence for the year with high rainfall as well as for the wet spells within a season. We further find high spatial variations in the time required for convergence; the region with high precipitation such as Lower Ganga basin attains convergence at a faster rate. Furthermore, deeper soil layers need more time for convergence. Our analysis is the first attempt on understanding the sensitivity of hydrological simulations of Ganga basin on initial soil moisture conditions. The results obtained here may be useful in understanding the spin-up requirements for operational hydrologic forecasts.

Initialization of hydrodynamics in relativistic heavy ion collisions with an energy-momentum transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naboka, V. Yu.; Akkelin, S. V.; Karpenko, Iu. A.; Sinyukov, Yu. M.

2015-01-01

A key ingredient of hydrodynamical modeling of relativistic heavy ion collisions is thermal initial conditions, an input that is the consequence of a prethermal dynamics which is not completely understood yet. In the paper we employ a recently developed energy-momentum transport model of the prethermal stage to study influence of the alternative initial states in nucleus-nucleus collisions on flow and energy density distributions of the matter at the starting time of hydrodynamics. In particular, the dependence of the results on isotropic and anisotropic initial states is analyzed. It is found that at the thermalization time the transverse flow is larger and the maximal energy density is higher for the longitudinally squeezed initial momentum distributions. The results are also sensitive to the relaxation time parameter, equation of state at the thermalization time, and transverse profile of initial energy density distribution: Gaussian approximation, Glauber Monte Carlo profiles, etc. Also, test results ensure that the numerical code based on the energy-momentum transport model is capable of providing both averaged and fluctuating initial conditions for the hydrodynamic simulations of relativistic nuclear collisions.

Greenland Regional and Ice Sheet-wide Geometry Sensitivity to Boundary and Initial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, L. C.; Narayanan, S. H. K.; Greve, R.; Heimbach, P.

2017-12-01

Ice sheet and glacier model outputs require inputs from uncertainly known initial and boundary conditions, and other parameters. Conservation and constitutive equations formalize the relationship between model inputs and outputs, and the sensitivity of model-derived quantities of interest (e.g., ice sheet volume above floatation) to model variables can be obtained via the adjoint model of an ice sheet. We show how one particular ice sheet model, SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets), depends on these inputs through comprehensive adjoint-based sensitivity analyses. SICOPOLIS discretizes the shallow-ice and shallow-shelf approximations for ice flow, and is well-suited for paleo-studies of Greenland and Antarctica, among other computational domains. The adjoint model of SICOPOLIS was developed via algorithmic differentiation, facilitated by the source transformation tool OpenAD (developed at Argonne National Lab). While model sensitivity to various inputs can be computed by costly methods involving input perturbation simulations, the time-dependent adjoint model of SICOPOLIS delivers model sensitivities to initial and boundary conditions throughout time at lower cost. Here, we explore both the sensitivities of the Greenland Ice Sheet's entire and regional volumes to: initial ice thickness, precipitation, basal sliding, and geothermal flux over the Holocene epoch. Sensitivity studies such as described here are now accessible to the modeling community, based on the latest version of SICOPOLIS that has been adapted for OpenAD to generate correct and efficient adjoint code.

Effect of Initial Conditions on Reproducibility of Scientific Research

PubMed Central

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok

2014-01-01

Background: It is estimated that about half of currently published research cannot be reproduced. Many reasons have been offered as explanations for failure to reproduce scientific research findings- from fraud to the issues related to design, conduct, analysis, or publishing scientific research. We also postulate a sensitive dependency on initial conditions by which small changes can result in the large differences in the research findings when attempted to be reproduced at later times. Methods: We employed a simple logistic regression equation to model the effect of covariates on the initial study findings. We then fed the input from the logistic equation into a logistic map function to model stability of the results in repeated experiments over time. We illustrate the approach by modeling effects of different factors on the choice of correct treatment. Results: We found that reproducibility of the study findings depended both on the initial values of all independent variables and the rate of change in the baseline conditions, the latter being more important. When the changes in the baseline conditions vary by about 3.5 to about 4 in between experiments, no research findings could be reproduced. However, when the rate of change between the experiments is ≤2.5 the results become highly predictable between the experiments. Conclusions: Many results cannot be reproduced because of the changes in the initial conditions between the experiments. Better control of the baseline conditions in-between the experiments may help improve reproducibility of scientific findings. PMID:25132705

Effect of initial conditions on reproducibility of scientific research.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok

2014-06-01

It is estimated that about half of currently published research cannot be reproduced. Many reasons have been offered as explanations for failure to reproduce scientific research findings- from fraud to the issues related to design, conduct, analysis, or publishing scientific research. We also postulate a sensitive dependency on initial conditions by which small changes can result in the large differences in the research findings when attempted to be reproduced at later times. We employed a simple logistic regression equation to model the effect of covariates on the initial study findings. We then fed the input from the logistic equation into a logistic map function to model stability of the results in repeated experiments over time. We illustrate the approach by modeling effects of different factors on the choice of correct treatment. We found that reproducibility of the study findings depended both on the initial values of all independent variables and the rate of change in the baseline conditions, the latter being more important. When the changes in the baseline conditions vary by about 3.5 to about 4 in between experiments, no research findings could be reproduced. However, when the rate of change between the experiments is ≤2.5 the results become highly predictable between the experiments. Many results cannot be reproduced because of the changes in the initial conditions between the experiments. Better control of the baseline conditions in-between the experiments may help improve reproducibility of scientific findings.

A new Method for the Estimation of Initial Condition Uncertainty Structures in Mesoscale Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, J. D.; Bach, L.; Hense, A.

2012-12-01

The estimation of fast growing error modes of a system is a key interest of ensemble data assimilation when assessing uncertainty in initial conditions. Over the last two decades three methods (and variations of these methods) have evolved for global numerical weather prediction models: ensemble Kalman filter, singular vectors and breeding of growing modes (or now ensemble transform). While the former incorporates a priori model error information and observation error estimates to determine ensemble initial conditions, the latter two techniques directly address the error structures associated with Lyapunov vectors. However, in global models these structures are mainly associated with transient global wave patterns. When assessing initial condition uncertainty in mesoscale limited area models, several problems regarding the aforementioned techniques arise: (a) additional sources of uncertainty on the smaller scales contribute to the error and (b) error structures from the global scale may quickly move through the model domain (depending on the size of the domain). To address the latter problem, perturbation structures from global models are often included in the mesoscale predictions as perturbed boundary conditions. However, the initial perturbations (when used) are often generated with a variant of an ensemble Kalman filter which does not necessarily focus on the large scale error patterns. In the framework of the European regional reanalysis project of the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research we use a mesoscale model with an implemented nudging data assimilation scheme which does not support ensemble data assimilation at all. In preparation of an ensemble-based regional reanalysis and for the estimation of three-dimensional atmospheric covariance structures, we implemented a new method for the assessment of fast growing error modes for mesoscale limited area models. The so-called self-breeding is development based on the breeding of growing modes technique. Initial perturbations are integrated forward for a short time period and then rescaled and added to the initial state again. Iterating this rapid breeding cycle provides estimates for the initial uncertainty structure (or local Lyapunov vectors) given a specific norm. To avoid that all ensemble perturbations converge towards the leading local Lyapunov vector we apply an ensemble transform variant to orthogonalize the perturbations in the sub-space spanned by the ensemble. By choosing different kind of norms to measure perturbation growth, this technique allows for estimating uncertainty patterns targeted at specific sources of errors (e.g. convection, turbulence). With case study experiments we show applications of the self-breeding method for different sources of uncertainty and different horizontal scales.

Influence of initial seed distribution on the pattern formation of the phase field crystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starodumov, Ilya; Galenko, Peter; Kropotin, Nikolai; Alexandrov, Dmitri V.

2017-11-01

The process of crystal growth can be expressed as a transition of atomic structure to a finally stable state or to a metastable state. In the Phase Field Crystal Model (PFC-model) these states are described by regular distributions of the atomic density. Getting the system into any metastable condition may be caused by the peculiarities of the computational domain, initial and boundary conditions. However, an important factor in the formation of the crystal structure can be the initial disturbance. In the report we show how different types of initial disturbance can change the finally stable state of crystal structure in equilibrium.

Utilization of VAS satellite data in the initialization of an oceanic cyclogenesis simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Sharon G.; Warner, Thomas T.

1987-01-01

A series of experiments was performed to test various methods of incorporating Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS)-sounding data into the initial conditions of the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric mesoscale model. The VAS data for this ocean-cyclogenesis case consist of 110 irregularly distributed temperature and humidity soundings located over the North Pacific Ocean and apply at approximately 1200 GMT November 10, 1981. Various methods of utilizing VAS data in the initial condition of a mesoscale model were evaluated.

Utilization of VAS satellite data in the initialization of an oceanic-cyclogenesis simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Sharon G.; Warner, Thomas T.

1986-01-01

A series of experiments was performed to test various method of incorporating Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS)-sounding data into the initial conditions of the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric mesoscale model. The VAS data for this ocean-cyclogenesis case consist of 110 irregularly distributed temperature and humidity soundings located over the North Pacific Ocean and apply at approximately 1200 GMT 10 November 1981. Various methods of utilizing VAS data in the initial condition of a mesoscale model were evaluated.

Ultrametric distribution of culture vectors in an extended Axelrod model of cultural dissemination.

PubMed

Stivala, Alex; Robins, Garry; Kashima, Yoshihisa; Kirley, Michael

2014-05-02

The Axelrod model of cultural diffusion is an apparently simple model that is capable of complex behaviour. A recent work used a real-world dataset of opinions as initial conditions, demonstrating the effects of the ultrametric distribution of empirical opinion vectors in promoting cultural diversity in the model. Here we quantify the degree of ultrametricity of the initial culture vectors and investigate the effect of varying degrees of ultrametricity on the absorbing state of both a simple and extended model. Unlike the simple model, ultrametricity alone is not sufficient to sustain long-term diversity in the extended Axelrod model; rather, the initial conditions must also have sufficiently large variance in intervector distances. Further, we find that a scheme for evolving synthetic opinion vectors from cultural "prototypes" shows the same behaviour as real opinion data in maintaining cultural diversity in the extended model; whereas neutral evolution of cultural vectors does not.

Ultrametric distribution of culture vectors in an extended Axelrod model of cultural dissemination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stivala, Alex; Robins, Garry; Kashima, Yoshihisa; Kirley, Michael

2014-05-01

The Axelrod model of cultural diffusion is an apparently simple model that is capable of complex behaviour. A recent work used a real-world dataset of opinions as initial conditions, demonstrating the effects of the ultrametric distribution of empirical opinion vectors in promoting cultural diversity in the model. Here we quantify the degree of ultrametricity of the initial culture vectors and investigate the effect of varying degrees of ultrametricity on the absorbing state of both a simple and extended model. Unlike the simple model, ultrametricity alone is not sufficient to sustain long-term diversity in the extended Axelrod model; rather, the initial conditions must also have sufficiently large variance in intervector distances. Further, we find that a scheme for evolving synthetic opinion vectors from cultural ``prototypes'' shows the same behaviour as real opinion data in maintaining cultural diversity in the extended model; whereas neutral evolution of cultural vectors does not.

[Network of plastic neurons capable of forming conditioned reflexes ("membrane" model of learning)].

PubMed

Litvinov, E G; Frolov, A A

1978-01-01

Simple net neuronal model was suggested which was able to form the conditioning due to changes of the neuron excitability. The model was based on the following main concepts: (a) the conditioning formation should result in reduction of the firing threshold in the same neurons where the conditioning and reinforcement stimuli were converged, (b) neuron threshold may have only two possible states: initial and final ones, these were identical for all cells, the threshold may be changed only once from the initial value to the final one, (c) isomorphous relation may be introduced between some pair of arbitrary stimuli and some subset of the net neurons; any two pairs differing at least in one stimulus have unlike subsets of the convergent neurons. Stochastically organized neuronal net was used for analysis of the model. Considerable information capacity of the net gives the opportunity to consider that the conditioning formation is possible on the basis of the nervous cells. The efficienty of the model turn out to be comparable with the well known models where the conditioning formation was due to the modification of the synapses.

Persistence of initial conditions in continental scale air quality simulations

EPA Science Inventory

This study investigates the effect of initial conditions (IC) for pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere and soil on simulated air quality for two continental-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applications. One of these applications was performed for springt...

Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Eunkyo; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kim, Daehyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Kim, Hyun-Kyung; MacLachlan, Craig; Scaife, Adam A.

2018-05-01

This study uses a global land-atmosphere coupled model, the land-atmosphere component of the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5, to quantify the degree to which soil moisture initialization could potentially enhance boreal summer surface air temperature forecast skill. Two sets of hindcast experiments are performed by prescribing the observed sea surface temperature as the boundary condition for a 15-year period (1996-2010). In one set of the hindcast experiments (noINIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are randomly taken from a long-term simulation. In the other set (INIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are taken from an observation-driven offline Land Surface Model (LSM) simulation. The soil moisture conditions from the offline LSM simulation are calibrated using the forecast model statistics to minimize the inconsistency between the LSM and the land-atmosphere coupled model in their mean and variability. Results show a higher boreal summer surface air temperature prediction skill in INIT than in noINIT, demonstrating the potential benefit from an accurate soil moisture initialization. The forecast skill enhancement appears especially in the areas in which the evaporative fraction—the ratio of surface latent heat flux to net surface incoming radiation—is sensitive to soil moisture amount. These areas lie in the transitional regime between humid and arid climates. Examination of the extreme 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat wave events reveal that the regionally anomalous soil moisture conditions during the events played an important role in maintaining the stationary circulation anomalies, especially those near the surface.

Initial conditions for cosmological N-body simulations of the scalar sector of theories of Newtonian, Relativistic and Modified Gravity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Valkenburg, Wessel; Hu, Bin, E-mail: valkenburg@lorentz.leidenuniv.nl, E-mail: hu@lorentz.leidenuniv.nl

2015-09-01

We present a description for setting initial particle displacements and field values for simulations of arbitrary metric theories of gravity, for perfect and imperfect fluids with arbitrary characteristics. We extend the Zel'dovich Approximation to nontrivial theories of gravity, and show how scale dependence implies curved particle paths, even in the entirely linear regime of perturbations. For a viable choice of Effective Field Theory of Modified Gravity, initial conditions set at high redshifts are affected at the level of up to 5% at Mpc scales, which exemplifies the importance of going beyond Λ-Cold Dark Matter initial conditions for modifications of gravitymore » outside of the quasi-static approximation. In addition, we show initial conditions for a simulation where a scalar modification of gravity is modelled in a Lagrangian particle-like description. Our description paves the way for simulations and mock galaxy catalogs under theories of gravity beyond the standard model, crucial for progress towards precision tests of gravity and cosmology.« less

Modeling the effect of initial and free-stream conditions on circular wakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewalle, Jacques

A cascade-transport model is applied to study the effect of initial and free-stream conditions on circular waves. The role of the very-large-eddies (VLEs) is shown and used to derive a new understanding of wakes and their lack of universality. Computational results are reported which show that the VLEs are a determining factor in the development of self-preserving solutions for the axisymmetric wake.

Ocean Data Impacts in Global HYCOM

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-01

The purpose of assimilation is to reduce the model initial condition error. Improved initial con- ditions should lead to an improved forecast...the determination of locations where forecast errors are sensitive to the initial conditions are essential for improving the data assimilation system...longwave radiation, total (large scale plus convective) precipitation, ground/sea temperature, zonal and me- ridional wind velocities at 10m, mean sea

Profiling the robustness, efficiency and limits of the forward-adjoint method for 3-D mantle convection modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, M. G.; Davies, J. H.

2018-02-01

Knowledge of Earth's past mantle structure is inherently unknown. This lack of knowledge presents problems in many areas of Earth science, including in mantle circulation modelling (MCM). As a mathematical model of mantle convection, MCMs require boundary and initial conditions. While boundary conditions are readily available from sources such as plate reconstructions for the upper surface, and as free slip at the core-mantle boundary, the initial condition is not known. MCMs have historically `created' an initial condition using long `spin up' processes using the oldest available plate reconstruction period available. While these do yield good results when models are run to present day, it is difficult to infer with confidence results from early in a model's history. Techniques to overcome this problem are now being studied in geodynamics, such as by assimilating the known internal structure (e.g. from seismic tomography) of Earth at present day backwards in time. One such method is to use an iterative process known as the forward-adjoint method. While this is an efficient means of solving this inverse problem, it still strains all but the most cutting edge computational systems. In this study we endeavour to profile the effectiveness of this method using synthetic test cases as our known data source. We conclude that savings in terms of computational expense for forward-adjoint models can be achieved by streamlining the time-stepping of the calculation, as well as determining the most efficient method of updating initial conditions in the iterative scheme. Furthermore, we observe that in the models presented, there exists an upper limit on the time interval over which solutions will practically converge, although this limit is likely to be linked to Rayleigh number.

On the long-term memory of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogozhina, I.; Martinec, Z.; Hagedoorn, J. M.; Thomas, M.; Fleming, K.

2011-03-01

In this study, the memory of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with respect to its past states is analyzed. According to ice core reconstructions, the present-day GIS reflects former climatic conditions dating back to at least 250 thousand years before the present (kyr BP). This fact must be considered when initializing an ice sheet model. The common initialization techniques are paleoclimatic simulations driven by atmospheric forcing inferred from ice core records and steady state simulations driven by the present-day or past climatic conditions. When paleoclimatic simulations are used, the information about the past climatic conditions is partly reflected in the resulting present-day state of the GIS. However, there are several important questions that need to be clarified. First, for how long does the model remember its initial state? Second, it is generally acknowledged that, prior to 100 kyr BP, the longest Greenland ice core record (GRIP) is distorted by ice-flow irregularities. The question arises as to what extent do the uncertainties inherent in the GRIP-based forcing influence the resulting GIS? Finally, how is the modeled thermodynamic state affected by the choice of initialization technique (paleo or steady state)? To answer these questions, a series of paleoclimatic and steady state simulations is carried out. We conclude that (1) the choice of an ice-covered initial configuration shortens the initialization simulation time to 100 kyr, (2) the uncertainties in the GRIP-based forcing affect present-day modeled ice-surface topographies and temperatures only slightly, and (3) the GIS forced by present-day climatic conditions is overall warmer than that resulting from a paleoclimatic simulation.

An Operational Configuration of the ARPS Data Analysis System to Initialize WRF in the NM'S Environmental Modeling System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan; Blottman, Pete; Hoeth, Brian; Oram, Timothy

2006-01-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the next generation community mesoscale model designed to enhance collaboration between the research and operational sectors. The NM'S as a whole has begun a transition toward WRF as the mesoscale model of choice to use as a tool in making local forecasts. Currently, both the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are running the Advanced Regional Prediction System (AIRPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS) every 15 minutes over the Florida peninsula to produce high-resolution diagnostics supporting their daily operations. In addition, the NWS MLB and SMG have used ADAS to provide initial conditions for short-range forecasts from the ARPS numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Both NM'S MLB and SMG have derived great benefit from the maturity of ADAS, and would like to use ADAS for providing initial conditions to WRF. In order to assist in this WRF transition effort, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to configure and implement an operational version of WRF that uses output from ADAS for the model initial conditions. Both agencies asked the AMU to develop a framework that allows the ADAS initial conditions to be incorporated into the WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) software. Developed by the NM'S Science Operations Officer (S00) Science and Training Resource Center (STRC), the EMS is a complete, full physics, NWP package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) into a single end-to-end forecasting system. The EMS performs nearly all pre- and postprocessing and can be run automatically to obtain external grid data for WRF boundary conditions, run the model, and convert the data into a format that can be readily viewed within the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. The EMS has also incorporated the WRF Standard Initialization (SI) graphical user interface (GUT), which allows the user to set up the domain, dynamical core, resolution, etc., with ease. In addition to the SI GUT, the EMS contains a number of configuration files with extensive documentation to help the user select the appropriate input parameters for model physics schemes, integration timesteps, etc. Therefore, because of its streamlined capability, it is quite advantageous to configure ADAS to provide initial condition data to the EMS software. One of the biggest potential benefits of configuring ADAS for ingest into the EMS is that the analyses could be used to initialize either the ARW or NMM. Currently, the ARPS/ADAS software has a conversion routine only for the ARW dynamical core. However, since the NIvIM runs about 2.5 times faster than the ARW, it is quite advantageous to be able to run an ADAS/NMM configuration operationally due to the increased efficiency.

A Historical Forcing Ice Sheet Model Validation Framework for Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, S. F.; Hoffman, M. J.; Howat, I. M.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Kalashnikova, I.; Neumann, T.; Nowicki, S.; Perego, M.; Salinger, A.

2014-12-01

We propose an ice sheet model testing and validation framework for Greenland for the years 2000 to the present. Following Perego et al. (2014), we start with a realistic ice sheet initial condition that is in quasi-equilibrium with climate forcing from the late 1990's. This initial condition is integrated forward in time while simultaneously applying (1) surface mass balance forcing (van Angelen et al., 2013) and (2) outlet glacier flux anomalies, defined using a new dataset of Greenland outlet glacier flux for the past decade (Enderlin et al., 2014). Modeled rates of mass and elevation change are compared directly to remote sensing observations obtained from GRACE and ICESat. Here, we present a detailed description of the proposed validation framework including the ice sheet model and model forcing approach, the model-to-observation comparison process, and initial results comparing model output and observations for the time period 2000-2013.

Uncertainty Estimation in Tsunami Initial Condition From Rapid Bayesian Finite Fault Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, R. F.; Dettmer, J.; Cummins, P. R.; Urrutia, A.; Cienfuegos, R.

2017-12-01

It is well known that kinematic rupture models for a given earthquake can present discrepancies even when similar datasets are employed in the inversion process. While quantifying this variability can be critical when making early estimates of the earthquake and triggered tsunami impact, "most likely models" are normally used for this purpose. In this work, we quantify the uncertainty of the tsunami initial condition for the great Illapel earthquake (Mw = 8.3, 2015, Chile). We focus on utilizing data and inversion methods that are suitable to rapid source characterization yet provide meaningful and robust results. Rupture models from teleseismic body and surface waves as well as W-phase are derived and accompanied by Bayesian uncertainty estimates from linearized inversion under positivity constraints. We show that robust and consistent features about the rupture kinematics appear when working within this probabilistic framework. Moreover, by using static dislocation theory, we translate the probabilistic slip distributions into seafloor deformation which we interpret as a tsunami initial condition. After considering uncertainty, our probabilistic seafloor deformation models obtained from different data types appear consistent with each other providing meaningful results. We also show that selecting just a single "representative" solution from the ensemble of initial conditions for tsunami propagation may lead to overestimating information content in the data. Our results suggest that rapid, probabilistic rupture models can play a significant role during emergency response by providing robust information about the extent of the disaster.

Numerical Model of the Hoosic River Flood-Control Channel, Adams, MA

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-01

The model was then used to evaluate the flow conditions associated with the as-built channel configuration. The existing channel conditions were then...end as part of a channel restoration project. The model was to determine if restoration alterations would change water- surface elevations associated ...water-surface elevations associated with the initial design and construction. After as-built flow conditions were established, flow conditions

Controlled experiments in cosmological gravitational clustering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melott, Adrian L.; Shandarin, Sergei F.

1993-01-01

A systematic study is conducted of gravitational instability in 3D on the basis of power-law initial spectra with and without spectral cutoff, emphasizing nonlinear effects and measures of nonlinearity; effects due to short and long waves in the initial conditions are separated. The existence of second-general pancakes is confirmed, and it is noted that while these are inhomogeneous, they generate a visually strong signal of filamentarity. An explicit comparison of smoothed initial conditions with smoothed envelope models also reconfirms the need to smooth over a scale larger than any nonlinearity, in order to extrapolate directly by linear theory from Gaussian initial conditions.

A Comparison of Perturbed Initial Conditions and Multiphysics Ensembles in a Severe Weather Episode in Spain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tapiador, Francisco; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Angelis, Carlos F.; Martinez, Miguel A.; Cecilia Marcos; Antonio Rodriguez; Hou, Arthur; Jong Shi, Jain

2012-01-01

Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations.

Validation of an ocean shelf model for the prediction of mixed-layer properties in the Mediterranean Sea west of Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onken, Reiner

2017-04-01

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) has been employed to explore the sensitivity of the forecast skill of mixed-layer properties to initial conditions, boundary conditions, and vertical mixing parameterisations. The initial and lateral boundary conditions were provided by the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) or by the MERCATOR global ocean circulation model via one-way nesting; the initial conditions were additionally updated through the assimilation of observations. Nowcasts and forecasts from the weather forecast models COSMO-ME and COSMO-IT, partly melded with observations, served as surface boundary conditions. The vertical mixing was parameterised by the GLS (generic length scale) scheme Umlauf and Burchard (2003) in four different set-ups. All ROMS forecasts were validated against the observations which were taken during the REP14-MED survey to the west of Sardinia. Nesting ROMS in MERCATOR and updating the initial conditions through data assimilation provided the best agreement of the predicted mixed-layer properties with the time series from a moored thermistor chain. Further improvement was obtained by the usage of COSMO-ME atmospheric forcing, which was melded with real observations, and by the application of the k-ω vertical mixing scheme with increased vertical eddy diffusivity. The predicted temporal variability of the mixed-layer temperature was reasonably well correlated with the observed variability, while the modelled variability of the mixed-layer depth exhibited only agreement with the observations near the diurnal frequency peak. For the forecasted horizontal variability, reasonable agreement was found with observations from a ScanFish section, but only for the mesoscale wave number band; the observed sub-mesoscale variability was not reproduced by ROMS.

The Effect of Lateral Boundary Values on Atmospheric Mercury Simulations with the CMAQ Model

EPA Science Inventory

Simulation results from three global-scale models of atmospheric mercury have been used to define three sets of initial condition and boundary condition (IC/BC) data for regional-scale model simulations over North America using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. ...

Seasonal simulations using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model with data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larow, Timothy Edward

1997-10-01

A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The coupled model is used for seasonal predictions of the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution triangular truncation 42 waves. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version developed by Latif (1987). Coupling is synchronous with exchange of information every two model hours. Using daily analysis from ECMWF and observed monthly mean SSTs from NCEP, two - one year, time dependent, Newtonian relaxation were conducted using the coupled model prior to the seasonal forecasts. Relaxation was selectively applied to the atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature, and dew point depression equations, and to the ocean's surface temperature equation. The ocean's initial conditions are from a six year ocean-only simulation which used observed wind stresses and a relaxation towards observed SSTs for forcings. Coupled initialization was conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 for the 1987 boreal forecast and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988 for the 1988 boreal forecast. Examination of annual means of net heat flux, freshwater flux and wind stress obtained by from the initialization show close agreement with Oberhuber (1988) climatology and the Florida State University pseudo wind stress analysis. Sensitivity of the initialization/assimilation scheme was tested by conducting two - ten member ensemble integrations. Each member was integrated for 90 days (June-August) of the respective year. Initial conditions for the ensembles consisted of the same ocean state as used by the initialize forecasts, while the atmospheric initial conditions were from ECMWF analysis centered on 1 June of the respective year. Root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Nino 3 and Nino 4 regions show greater skill between the initialized forecasts than the ensemble forecasts. It is hypothesized that differences in the specific humidity within the planetary boundary layer are responsible for the large SST errors noted with the ensembles.

The Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization On Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R. D.; Suarez, M. J.; Tyahla, L.; Houser, Paul (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Some studies suggest that the proper initialization of soil moisture in a forecasting model may contribute significantly to the accurate prediction of seasonal precipitation, especially over mid-latitude continents. In order for the initialization to have any impact at all, however, two conditions must be satisfied: (1) the initial soil moisture anomaly must be "remembered" into the forecasted season, and (2) the atmosphere must respond in a predictable way to the soil moisture anomaly. In our previous studies, we identified the key land surface and atmospheric properties needed to satisfy each condition. Here, we tie these studies together with an analysis of an ensemble of seasonal forecasts. Initial soil moisture conditions for the forecasts are established by forcing the land surface model with realistic precipitation prior to the start of the forecast period. As expected, the impacts on forecasted precipitation (relative to an ensemble of runs that do not utilize soil moisture information) tend to be localized over the small fraction of the earth with all of the required land and atmosphere properties.

Parsec-Scale Obscuring Accretion Disk with Large-Scale Magnetic Field in AGNs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dorodnitsyn, A.; Kallman, T.

2017-01-01

A magnetic field dragged from the galactic disk, along with inflowing gas, can provide vertical support to the geometrically and optically thick pc (parsec) -scale torus in AGNs (Active Galactic Nuclei). Using the Soloviev solution initially developed for Tokamaks, we derive an analytical model for a rotating torus that is supported and confined by a magnetic field. We further perform three-dimensional magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of X-ray irradiated, pc-scale, magnetized tori. We follow the time evolution and compare models that adopt initial conditions derived from our analytic model with simulations in which the initial magnetic flux is entirely contained within the gas torus. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the initial conditions based on the analytic solution produce a longer-lived torus that produces obscuration that is generally consistent with observed constraints.

Parsec-scale Obscuring Accretion Disk with Large-scale Magnetic Field in AGNs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dorodnitsyn, A.; Kallman, T.

A magnetic field dragged from the galactic disk, along with inflowing gas, can provide vertical support to the geometrically and optically thick pc-scale torus in AGNs. Using the Soloviev solution initially developed for Tokamaks, we derive an analytical model for a rotating torus that is supported and confined by a magnetic field. We further perform three-dimensional magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of X-ray irradiated, pc-scale, magnetized tori. We follow the time evolution and compare models that adopt initial conditions derived from our analytic model with simulations in which the initial magnetic flux is entirely contained within the gas torus. Numerical simulations demonstrate thatmore » the initial conditions based on the analytic solution produce a longer-lived torus that produces obscuration that is generally consistent with observed constraints.« less

A comparison of GLAS SAT and NMC high resolution NOSAT forecasts from 19 and 11 February 1976

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R.

1979-01-01

A subjective comparison of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) and the National Meteorological Center (NMC) high resolution model forecasts is presented. Two cases where NMC's operational model in 1976 had serious difficulties in forecasting for the United States were examined. For each of the cases, the GLAS model forecasts from initial conditions which included satellite sounding data were compared directly to the NMC higher resolution model forecasts, from initial conditions which excluded the satellite data. The comparison showed that the GLAS satellite forecasts significantly improved upon the current NMC operational model's predictions in both cases.

Directed current in the Holstein system.

PubMed

Hennig, D; Burbanks, A D; Osbaldestin, A H

2011-03-01

We propose a mechanism to rectify charge transport in the semiclassical Holstein model. It is shown that localized initial conditions associated with a polaron solution, in conjunction with static electron on-site potential not having inversion symmetry, constitute minimal prerequisites for the emergence of a directed current in the underlying periodic lattice system. In particular, we demonstrate that for unbiased spatially localized initial conditions (constituted by kicked static polaron states), violation of parity prevents the existence of pairs of counterpropagating trajectories, thus allowing for a directed current despite the time reversibility of the equations of motion. Nevertheless, propagating polaron solutions associated with sets of unbiased localized initial conditions which eventually leave the region of localized initial conditions do not exhibit time reversibility. Since the initial conditions belonging to the corresponding counterpropagating, current-compensating polaron solutions are not contained in the set, this gives rise to the emergence of a current. Occurrence of long-range coherent charge transport is demonstrated.

Multipoint propagators for non-Gaussian initial conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernardeau, Francis; Sefusatti, Emiliano; Crocce, Martin

2010-10-15

We show here how renormalized perturbation theory calculations applied to the quasilinear growth of the large-scale structure can be carried on in presence of primordial non-Gaussian (PNG) initial conditions. It is explicitly demonstrated that the series reordering scheme proposed in Bernardeau, Crocce, and Scoccimarro [Phys. Rev. D 78, 103521 (2008)] is preserved for non-Gaussian initial conditions. This scheme applies to the power spectrum and higher-order spectra and is based on a reorganization of the contributing terms into the sum of products of multipoint propagators. In case of PNG, new contributing terms appear, the importance of which is discussed in themore » context of current PNG models. The properties of the building blocks of such resummation schemes, the multipoint propagators, are then investigated. It is first remarked that their expressions are left unchanged at one-loop order irrespective of statistical properties of the initial field. We furthermore show that the high-momentum limit of each of these propagators can be explicitly computed even for arbitrary initial conditions. They are found to be damped by an exponential cutoff whose expression is directly related to the moment generating function of the one-dimensional displacement field. This extends what had been established for multipoint propagators for Gaussian initial conditions. Numerical forms of the cutoff are shown for the so-called local model of PNG.« less

Mathematical modeling on obligate mutualism: Interactions between leaf-cutter ants and their fungus garden.

PubMed

Kang, Yun; Clark, Rebecca; Makiyama, Michael; Fewell, Jennifer

2011-11-21

We propose a simple mathematical model by applying Michaelis-Menton equations of enzyme kinetics to study the mutualistic interaction between the leaf cutter ant and its fungus garden at the early stage of colony expansion. We derive sufficient conditions on the extinction and coexistence of these two species. In addition, we give a region of initial condition that leads to the extinction of two species when the model has an interior attractor. Our global analysis indicates that the division of labor by worker ants and initial conditions are two important factors that determine whether leaf cutter ants' colonies and their fungus garden can survive and grow or not. We validate the model by comparing model simulations and data on fungal and ant colony growth rates under laboratory conditions. We perform sensitive analysis of the model based on the experimental data to gain more biological insights on ecological interactions between leaf-cutter ants and their fungus garden. Finally, we give conclusions and discuss potential future work. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Constraints on rapidity-dependent initial conditions from charged-particle pseudorapidity densities and two-particle correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, Weiyao; Moreland, J. Scott; Bernhard, Jonah E.; Bass, Steffen A.

2017-10-01

We study the initial three-dimensional spatial configuration of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) produced in relativistic heavy-ion collisions using centrality and pseudorapidity-dependent measurements of the medium's charged particle density and two-particle correlations. A cumulant-generating function is first used to parametrize the rapidity dependence of local entropy deposition and extend arbitrary boost-invariant initial conditions to nonzero beam rapidities. The model is then compared to p +Pb and Pb + Pb charged-particle pseudorapidity densities and two-particle pseudorapidity correlations and systematically optimized using Bayesian parameter estimation to extract high-probability initial condition parameters. The optimized initial conditions are then compared to a number of experimental observables including the pseudorapidity-dependent anisotropic flows, event-plane decorrelations, and flow correlations. We find that the form of the initial local longitudinal entropy profile is well constrained by these experimental measurements.

Stormwater quality modelling in combined sewers: calibration and uncertainty analysis.

PubMed

Kanso, A; Chebbo, G; Tassin, B

2005-01-01

Estimating the level of uncertainty in urban stormwater quality models is vital for their utilization. This paper presents the results of application of a Monte Carlo Markov Chain method based on the Bayesian theory for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of a storm water quality model commonly used in available software. The tested model uses a hydrologic/hydrodynamic scheme to estimate the accumulation, the erosion and the transport of pollutants on surfaces and in sewers. It was calibrated for four different initial conditions of in-sewer deposits. Calibration results showed large variability in the model's responses in function of the initial conditions. They demonstrated that the model's predictive capacity is very low.

Helicobacter pylori colonization critically depends on postprandial gastric conditions

PubMed Central

Bücker, Roland; Azevedo-Vethacke, Marina; Groll, Claudia; Garten, Désirée; Josenhans, Christine; Suerbaum, Sebastian; Schreiber, Sören

2012-01-01

The risk of Helicobacter pylori infection is highest in childhood, but the colonization process of the stomach mucosa is poorly understood. We used anesthetized Mongolian gerbils to study the initial stages of H. pylori colonization. Prandial and postprandial gastric conditions characteristic of humans of different ages were simulated. The fraction of bacteria that reached the deep mucus layer varied strongly with the modelled postprandial conditions. Colonization success was weak with fast gastric reacidification typical of adults. The efficiency of deep mucus entry was also low with a slow pH decrease as seen in pH profiles simulating the situation in babies. Initial colonization was most efficient under conditions simulating the postprandial reacidification and pepsin activation profiles in young children. In conclusion, initial H. pylori colonization depends on age-related gastric physiology, providing evidence from an in vivo infection model that suggests an explanation why the bacterium is predominantly acquired in early childhood. PMID:23251780

Persistence of initial conditions in continental scale air quality ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This study investigates the effect of initial conditions (IC) for pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere and soil on simulated air quality for two continental-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applications. One of these applications was performed for springtime and the second for summertime. Results show that a spin-up period of ten days commonly used in regional-scale applications may not be sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged surface ozone concentrations everywhere while 20 days were found to be sufficient for the entire domain for the spring case and almost the entire domain for the summer case. For the summer case, differences were found to persist longer aloft due to circulation of air masses and even a spin-up period of 30 days was not sufficient to reduce the effects of ICs to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged layer 34 ozone concentrations over the southwestern portion of the modeling domain. Analysis of the effect of soil initial conditions for the CMAQ bidirectional NH3 exchange model shows that during springtime they can have an important effect on simulated inorganic aerosols concentrations for time periods of one month or longer. The effects are less pronounced during other seasons. The results, while specific to the modeling domain and time periods simulated here, suggest that modeling protocols need to be scrutinized for a given application and that it cannot be assum

Specification and Prediction of the Radiation Environment Using Data Assimilative VERB code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shprits, Yuri; Kellerman, Adam

2016-07-01

We discuss how data assimilation can be used for the reconstruction of long-term evolution, bench-marking of the physics based codes and used to improve the now-casting and focusing of the radiation belts and ring current. We also discuss advanced data assimilation methods such as parameter estimation and smoothing. We present a number of data assimilation applications using the VERB 3D code. The 3D data assimilative VERB allows us to blend together data from GOES, RBSP A and RBSP B. 1) Model with data assimilation allows us to propagate data to different pitch angles, energies, and L-shells and blends them together with the physics-based VERB code in an optimal way. We illustrate how to use this capability for the analysis of the previous events and for obtaining a global and statistical view of the system. 2) The model predictions strongly depend on initial conditions that are set up for the model. Therefore, the model is as good as the initial conditions that it uses. To produce the best possible initial conditions, data from different sources (GOES, RBSP A, B, our empirical model predictions based on ACE) are all blended together in an optimal way by means of data assimilation, as described above. The resulting initial conditions do not have gaps. This allows us to make more accurate predictions. Real-time prediction framework operating on our website, based on GOES, RBSP A, B and ACE data, and 3D VERB, is presented and discussed.

The WS transform for the Kuramoto model with distributed amplitudes, phase lag and time delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohe, M. A.

2017-12-01

We apply the Watanabe-Strogatz (WS) transform to a generalized Kuramoto model with distributed parameters describing the amplitude of oscillation, phase lag, and time delay at each node of the system. The model has global coupling and identical frequencies, but allows for repulsive interactions at arbitrary nodes leading to conformist-contrarian phenomena together with variable amplitude and time-delay effects. We show how to determine the initial values of the WS system for any initial conditions for the Kuramoto system, and investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the WS variables. For the case of zero time delay the possible asymptotic configurations are determined by the sign of a single parameter μ which measures whether or not the attractive nodes dominate the repulsive nodes. If μ>0 the system completely synchronizes from general initial conditions, whereas if μ<0 one of two types of phase-locked synchronization occurs, depending on the initial values, while for μ=0 periodic solutions can occur. For the case of arbitrary non-uniform time delays we derive a stability condition for completely synchronized solutions.

Sensitivity to initial conditions in the Bak-Sneppen model of biological evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamarit, F. A.; Cannas, S. A.; Tsallis, C.

1998-03-01

We consider biological evolution as described within the Bak and Sneppen 1993 model. We exhibit, at the self-organized critical state, a power-law sensitivity to the initial conditions, calculate the associated exponent, and relate it to the recently introduced nonextensive thermostatistics. The scenario which here emerges without tuning strongly reminds of that of the tuned onset of chaos in say logistic-like one-dimensional maps. We also calculate the dynamical exponent z.

Data assimialation for real-time prediction and reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shprits, Y.; Kellerman, A. C.; Podladchikova, T.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Ghil, M.

2015-12-01

We discuss the how data assimilation can be used for the analysis of individual satellite anomalies, development of long-term evolution reconstruction that can be used for the specification models, and use of data assimilation to improve the now-casting and focusing of the radiation belts. We also discuss advanced data assimilation methods such as parameter estimation and smoothing.The 3D data assimilative VERB allows us to blend together data from GOES, RBSP A and RBSP B. Real-time prediction framework operating on our web site based on GOES, RBSP A, B and ACE data and 3D VERB is presented and discussed. In this paper we present a number of application of the data assimilation with the VERB 3D code. 1) Model with data assimilation allows to propagate data to different pitch angles, energies, and L-shells and blends them together with the physics based VERB code in an optimal way. We illustrate how we use this capability for the analysis of the previous events and for obtaining a global and statistical view of the system. 2) The model predictions strongly depend on initial conditions that are set up for the model. Therefore the model is as good as the initial conditions that it uses. To produce the best possible initial condition data from different sources ( GOES, RBSP A, B, our empirical model predictions based on ACE) are all blended together in an optimal way by means of data assimilation as described above. The resulting initial condition does not have gaps. That allows us to make a more accurate predictions.

On the breakup of viscous liquid threads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Papageorgiou, Demetrios T.

1995-01-01

A one-dimensional model evolution equation is used to describe the nonlinear dynamics that can lead to the breakup of a cylindrical thread of Newtonian fluid when capillary forces drive the motion. The model is derived from the Stokes equations by use of rational asymptotic expansions and under a slender jet approximation. The equations are solved numerically and the jet radius is found to vanish after a finite time yielding breakup. The slender jet approximation is valid throughout the evolution leading to pinching. The model admits self-similar pinching solutions which yield symmetric shapes at breakup. These solutions are shown to be the ones selected by the initial boundary value problem, for general initial conditions. Further more, the terminal state of the model equation is shown to be identical to that predicted by a theory which looks for singular pinching solutions directly from the Stokes equations without invoking the slender jet approximation throughout the evolution. It is shown quantitatively, therefore, that the one-dimensional model gives a consistent terminal state with the jet shape being locally symmetric at breakup. The asymptotic expansion scheme is also extended to include unsteady and inerticial forces in the momentum equations to derive an evolution system modelling the breakup of Navier-Stokes jets. The model is employed in extensive simulations to compute breakup times for different initial conditions; satellite drop formation is also supported by the model and the dependence of satellite drop volumes on initial conditions is studied.

Ergodic model for the expansion of spherical nanoplasmas.

PubMed

Peano, F; Coppa, G; Peinetti, F; Mulas, R; Silva, L O

2007-06-01

Recently, the collisionless expansion of spherical nanoplasmas has been analyzed with a new ergodic model, clarifying the transition from hydrodynamiclike to Coulomb-explosion regimes, and providing accurate laws for the relevant features of the phenomenon. A complete derivation of the model is presented here. The important issue of the self-consistent initial conditions is addressed by analyzing the initial charging transient due to the electron expansion, in the approximation of immobile ions. A comparison among different kinetic models for the expansion is presented, showing that the ergodic model provides a simplified description, which retains the essential information on the electron distribution, in particular, the energy spectrum. Results are presented for a wide range of initial conditions (determined from a single dimensionless parameter), in excellent agreement with calculations from the exact Vlasov-Poisson theory, thus providing a complete and detailed characterization of all the stages of the expansion.

Validation of the Integrated Medical Model Using Historical Space Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerstman, Eric L.; Minard, Charles G.; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary H.; Walton, Marlei E.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.; Saile, Lynn G.; Lopez, Vilma; Butler, Douglas J.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

2010-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes Monte Carlo methodologies to predict the occurrence of medical events, utilization of resources, and clinical outcomes during space flight. Real-world data may be used to demonstrate the accuracy of the model. For this analysis, IMM predictions were compared to data from historical shuttle missions, not yet included as model source input. Initial goodness of fit test-ing on International Space Station data suggests that the IMM may overestimate the number of occurrences for three of the 83 medical conditions in the model. The IMM did not underestimate the occurrence of any medical condition. Initial comparisons with shuttle data demonstrate the importance of understanding crew preference (i.e., preferred analgesic) for accurately predicting the utilization of re-sources. The initial analysis demonstrates the validity of the IMM for its intended use and highlights areas for improvement.

Episodic thermal perturbations associated with groundwater flow: An example from Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hurwitz, S.; Ingebritsen, S.E.; Sorey, M.L.

2002-01-01

Temperature measurements in deep drill holes on volcano summits or upper flanks allow a quantitative analysis of groundwater induced heat transport within the edifice. We present a new temperature-depth profile from a deep well on the summit of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, and analyze it in conjunction with a temperature profile measured 26 years earlier. We propose two groundwater flow models to interpret the complex temperature profiles. The first is a modified confined lateral flow model (CLFM) with a continuous flux of hydrothermal fluid. In the second, transient flow model (TFM), slow conductive cooling follows a brief, advective heating event. We carry out numerical simulations to examine the timescales associated with each of the models. Results for both models are sensitive to the initial conditions, and with realistic initial conditions it takes between 750 and 1000 simulation years for either model to match the measured temperature profiles. With somewhat hotter initial conditions, results are consistent with onset of a hydrothermal plume ???550 years ago, coincident with initiation of caldera subsidence. We show that the TFM is consistent with other data from hydrothermal systems and laboratory experiments and perhaps is more appropriate for this highly dynamic environment. The TFM implies that volcano-hydrothermal systems may be dominated by episodic events and that thermal perturbations may persist for several thousand years after hydrothermal flow has ceased.

Reduction of initial shock in decadal predictions using a new initialization strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yujun; Wang, Bin; Liu, Mimi; Liu, Li; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Juanjuan; Li, Ruizhe; Zhang, Cheng; Xu, Shiming; Huang, Wenyu; Liu, Qun; Wang, Yong; Li, Feifei

2017-08-01

A novel full-field initialization strategy based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) is proposed to alleviate the well-known initial shock occurring in the early years of decadal predictions. It generates consistent initial conditions, which best fit the monthly mean oceanic analysis data along the coupled model trajectory in 1 month windows. Three indices to measure the initial shock intensity are also proposed. Results indicate that this method does reduce the initial shock in decadal predictions by Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point version 2 (FGOALS-g2) compared with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation-based nudging full-field initialization for the same model and is comparable to or even better than the different initialization strategies for other fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Better hindcasts of global mean surface air temperature anomalies can be obtained than in other FGOALS-g2 experiments. Due to the good model response to external forcing and the reduction of initial shock, higher decadal prediction skill is achieved than in other CMIP5 models.

Thermodynamic models for bounding pressurant mass requirements of cryogenic tanks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vandresar, Neil T.; Haberbusch, Mark S.

1994-01-01

Thermodynamic models have been formulated to predict lower and upper bounds for the mass of pressurant gas required to pressurize a cryogenic tank and then expel liquid from the tank. Limiting conditions are based on either thermal equilibrium or zero energy exchange between the pressurant gas and initial tank contents. The models are independent of gravity level and allow specification of autogenous or non-condensible pressurants. Partial liquid fill levels may be specified for initial and final conditions. Model predictions are shown to successfully bound results from limited normal-gravity tests with condensable and non-condensable pressurant gases. Representative maximum collapse factor maps are presented for liquid hydrogen to show the effects of initial and final fill level on the range of pressurant gas requirements. Maximum collapse factors occur for partial expulsions with large final liquid fill fractions.

Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to initial specification of relative humidity, liquid water and vertical motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalb, M. W.; Perkey, D. J.

1985-01-01

The influence of synoptic scale initial conditions on the accuracy of mesoscale precipitation modeling is investigated. Attention is focused on the relative importance of the water vapor, cloud water, rain water, and vertical motion, with the analysis carried out using the Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS). The fully moist primitive equation model has 15 levels and a terrain-following sigma coordinate system. A K-theory approach was implemented to model the planetary boundary layer. A total of 15 sensitivity simulations were run to investigate the effects of the synoptic initial conditions of the four atmospheric variables. The absence of synoptic cloud and rain water amounts in the initialization caused a 2 hr delay in the onset of precipitation. The delay was increased if synoptic-scale vertical motion was used instead of mesoscale values. Both the delays and a choice of a smoothed moisture field resulted in underestimations of the total rainfall.

Updated global soil map for the Weather Research and Forecasting model and soil moisture initialization for the Noah land surface model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DY, C. Y.; Fung, J. C. H.

2016-08-01

A meteorological model requires accurate initial conditions and boundary conditions to obtain realistic numerical weather predictions. The land surface controls the surface heat and moisture exchanges, which can be determined by the physical properties of the soil and soil state variables, subsequently exerting an effect on the boundary layer meteorology. The initial and boundary conditions of soil moisture are currently obtained via National Centers for Environmental Prediction FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis data, which are collected operationally in 1° by 1° resolutions every 6 h. Another input to the model is the soil map generated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (FAO-UNESCO) soil database, which combines several soil surveys from around the world. Both soil moisture from the FNL analysis data and the default soil map lack accuracy and feature coarse resolutions, particularly for certain areas of China. In this study, we update the global soil map with data from Beijing Normal University in 1 km by 1 km grids and propose an alternative method of soil moisture initialization. Simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that spinning-up the soil moisture improves near-surface temperature and relative humidity prediction using different types of soil moisture initialization. Explanations of that improvement and improvement of the planetary boundary layer height in performing process analysis are provided.

Extension of Liouville Formalism to Postinstability Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zak, Michail

2003-01-01

A mathematical formalism has been developed for predicting the postinstability motions of a dynamic system governed by a system of nonlinear equations and subject to initial conditions. Previously, there was no general method for prediction and mathematical modeling of postinstability behaviors (e.g., chaos and turbulence) in such a system. The formalism of nonlinear dynamics does not afford means to discriminate between stable and unstable motions: an additional stability analysis is necessary for such discrimination. However, an additional stability analysis does not suggest any modifications of a mathematical model that would enable the model to describe postinstability motions efficiently. The most important type of instability that necessitates a postinstability description is associated with positive Lyapunov exponents. Such an instability leads to exponential growth of small errors in initial conditions or, equivalently, exponential divergence of neighboring trajectories. The development of the present formalism was undertaken in an effort to remove positive Lyapunov exponents. The means chosen to accomplish this is coupling of the governing dynamical equations with the corresponding Liouville equation that describes the evolution of the flow of error probability. The underlying idea is to suppress the divergences of different trajectories that correspond to different initial conditions, without affecting a target trajectory, which is one that starts with prescribed initial conditions.

Enhanced stability of steep channel beds to mass failure and debris flow initiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prancevic, J.; Lamb, M. P.; Ayoub, F.; Venditti, J. G.

2015-12-01

Debris flows dominate bedrock erosion and sediment transport in very steep mountain channels, and are often initiated from failure of channel-bed alluvium during storms. While several theoretical models exist to predict mass failures, few have been tested because observations of in-channel bed failures are extremely limited. To fill this gap in our understanding, we performed laboratory flume experiments to identify the conditions necessary to initiate bed failures in non-cohesive sediment of different sizes (D = 0.7 mm to 15 mm) on steep channel-bed slopes (S = 0.45 to 0.93) and in the presence of water flow. In beds composed of sand, failures occurred under sub-saturated conditions on steep bed slopes (S > 0.5) and under super-saturated conditions at lower slopes. In beds of gravel, however, failures occurred only under super-saturated conditions at all tested slopes, even those approaching the dry angle of repose. Consistent with theoretical models, mass failures under super-saturated conditions initiated along a failure plane approximately one grain-diameter below the bed surface, whereas the failure plane was located near the base of the bed under sub-saturated conditions. However, all experimental beds were more stable than predicted by 1-D infinite-slope stability models. In partially saturated sand, enhanced stability appears to result from suction stress. Enhanced stability in gravel may result from turbulent energy losses in pores or increased granular friction for failures that are shallow with respect to grain size. These grain-size dependent effects are not currently included in stability models for non-cohesive sediment, and they may help to explain better the timing and location of debris flow occurrence.

Comment on ;Evaluation of a physically based quasi-linear and a conceptually based nonlinear Muskingum methods; [J. Hydrol., 546, 437-449, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.025

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barati, Reza

2017-07-01

Perumal et al. (2017) compared the performances of the variable parameter McCarthy-Muskingum (VPMM) model of Perumal and Price (2013) and the nonlinear Muskingum (NLM) model of Gill (1978) using hypothetical inflow hydrographs in an artificial channel. As input parameters, first model needs the initial condition, upstream boundary condition, Manning's roughness coefficient, length of the routing reach, cross-sections of the river reach and the bed slope, while the latter one requires the initial condition, upstream boundary condition and the hydrologic parameters (three parameters which can be calibrated using flood hydrographs of the upstream and downstream sections). The VPMM model was examined by available Manning's roughness values, whereas the NLM model was tested in both calibration and validation steps. As final conclusion, Perumal et al. (2017) claimed that the NLM model should be retired from the literature of the Muskingum model. While the author's intention is laudable, this comment examines some important issues in the subject matter of the original study.

Sensitivities of Modeled Tropical Cyclones to Surface Friction and the Coriolis Parameter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

In this investigation the sensitivities of a 2-D tropical cyclone (TC) model to surface frictional coefficient and the Coriolis parameter are studied and their implication is discussed. The model used is an axisymmetric version of the latest version of the Goddard cloud ensemble model. The model has stretched vertical grids with 33 levels varying from 30 m near the bottom to 1140 m near the top. The vertical domain is about 21 km. The horizontal domain covers a radius of 962 km (770 grids) with a grid size of 1.25 km. The time step is 10 seconds. An open lateral boundary condition is used. The sea surface temperature is specified at 29C. Unless specified otherwise, the Coriolis parameter is set at its value at 15 deg N. The Newtonian cooling is used with a time scale of 12 hours. The reference vertical temperature profile used in the Newtonian cooling is that of Jordan. The Newtonian cooling models not only the effect of radiative processes but also the effect of processes with scale larger than that of TC. Our experiments showed that if the Newtonian cooling is replaced by a radiation package, the simulated TC is much weaker. The initial condition has a temperature uniform in the radial direction and its vertical profile is that of Jordan. The initial winds are a weak Rankin vortex in the tangential winds superimposed on a resting atmosphere. The initial sea level pressure is set at 1015 hPa everywhere. Since there is no surface pressure perturbation, the initial condition is not in gradient balance. This initial condition is enough to lead to cyclogenesis, but the initial stage (say, the first 24 hrs) is not considered to resemble anything observed. The control experiment reaches quasi-equilibration after about 10 days with an eye wall extending from 15 to 25 km radius, reasonable comparing with the observations. The maximum surface wind of more than 70 m/s is located at about 18 km radius. The minimum sea level pressure on day 10 is about 886 hPa. Thus the overall simulation is considered successful and the model is considered adequate for our investigation.

Physical modeling in geomorphology: are boundary conditions necessary?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantelli, A.

2012-12-01

Referring to the physical experimental design in geomorphology, boundary conditions are key elements that determine the quality of the results and therefore the study development. For years engineers have modeled structures, such as dams and bridges, with high precision and excellent results. Until the last decade, a great part of the physical experimental work in geomorphology has been developed with an engineer-like approach, requiring an accurate scaling analysis to determine inflow parameters and initial geometrical conditions. However, during the last decade, the way we have been approaching physical experiments has significantly changed. In particular, boundary conditions and initial conditions are considered unknown factors that need to be discovered during the experiment. This new philosophy leads to a more demanding data acquisition process but relaxes the obligation to a priori know the appropriate input and initial conditions and provides the flexibility to discover those data. Here I am going to present some practical examples of this experimental approach in deepwater geomorphology; some questions about scaling of turbidity currents and a new large experimental facility built at the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil.

Significance of the model considering mixed grain-size for inverse analysis of turbidites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakao, K.; Naruse, H.; Tokuhashi, S., Sr.

2016-12-01

A method for inverse analysis of turbidity currents is proposed for application to field observations. Estimation of initial condition of the catastrophic events from field observations has been important for sedimentological researches. For instance, there are various inverse analyses to estimate hydraulic conditions from topography observations of pyroclastic flows (Rossano et al., 1996), real-time monitored debris-flow events (Fraccarollo and Papa, 2000), tsunami deposits (Jaffe and Gelfenbaum, 2007) and ancient turbidites (Falcini et al., 2009). These inverse analyses need forward models and the most turbidity current models employ uniform grain-size particles. The turbidity currents, however, are the best characterized by variation of grain-size distribution. Though there are numerical models of mixed grain-sized particles, the models have difficulty in feasibility of application to natural examples because of calculating costs (Lesshaft et al., 2011). Here we expand the turbidity current model based on the non-steady 1D shallow-water equation at low calculation costs for mixed grain-size particles and applied the model to the inverse analysis. In this study, we compared two forward models considering uniform and mixed grain-size particles respectively. We adopted inverse analysis based on the Simplex method that optimizes the initial conditions (thickness, depth-averaged velocity and depth-averaged volumetric concentration of a turbidity current) with multi-point start and employed the result of the forward model [h: 2.0 m, U: 5.0 m/s, C: 0.01%] as reference data. The result shows that inverse analysis using the mixed grain-size model found the known initial condition of reference data even if the condition where the optimization started is deviated from the true solution, whereas the inverse analysis using the uniform grain-size model requires the condition in which the starting parameters for optimization must be in quite narrow range near the solution. The uniform grain-size model often reaches to local optimum condition that is significantly different from true solution. In conclusion, we propose a method of optimization based on the model considering mixed grain-size particles, and show its application to examples of turbidites in the Kiyosumi Formation, Boso Peninsula, Japan.

Comparison of Two Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods for Hydrologic Modeling over the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hameed, M.; Demirel, M. C.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) approach helps identify the effectiveness of model parameters or inputs and thus provides essential information about the model performance. In this study, the effects of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model parameters, forcing data, and initial conditions are analysed by using two GSA methods: Sobol' and Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST). The simulations are carried out over five sub-basins within the Columbia River Basin (CRB) for three different periods: one-year, four-year, and seven-year. Four factors are considered and evaluated by using the two sensitivity analysis methods: the simulation length, parameter range, model initial conditions, and the reliability of the global sensitivity analysis methods. The reliability of the sensitivity analysis results is compared based on 1) the agreement between the two sensitivity analysis methods (Sobol' and FAST) in terms of highlighting the same parameters or input as the most influential parameters or input and 2) how the methods are cohered in ranking these sensitive parameters under the same conditions (sub-basins and simulation length). The results show the coherence between the Sobol' and FAST sensitivity analysis methods. Additionally, it is found that FAST method is sufficient to evaluate the main effects of the model parameters and inputs. Another conclusion of this study is that the smaller parameter or initial condition ranges, the more consistency and coherence between the sensitivity analysis methods results.

The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM): A multi-scale, variable-complexity hydrological model for cold regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

2016-12-01

There is a need for hydrological land surface schemes that can link to atmospheric models, provide hydrological prediction at multiple scales and guide the development of multiple objective water predictive systems. Distributed raster-based models suffer from an overrepresentation of topography, leading to wasted computational effort that increases uncertainty due to greater numbers of parameters and initial conditions. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) is a modular, multiphysics, spatially distributed modelling framework designed for representing hydrological processes, including those that operate in cold-regions. Unstructured meshes permit variable spatial resolution, allowing coarse resolutions at low spatial variability and fine resolutions as required. Model uncertainty is reduced by lessening the necessary computational elements relative to high-resolution rasters. CHM uses a novel multi-objective approach for unstructured triangular mesh generation that fulfills hydrologically important constraints (e.g., basin boundaries, water bodies, soil classification, land cover, elevation, and slope/aspect). This provides an efficient spatial representation of parameters and initial conditions, as well as well-formed and well-graded triangles that are suitable for numerical discretization. CHM uses high-quality open source libraries and high performance computing paradigms to provide a framework that allows for integrating current state-of-the-art process algorithms. The impact of changes to model structure, including individual algorithms, parameters, initial conditions, driving meteorology, and spatial/temporal discretization can be easily tested. Initial testing of CHM compared spatial scales and model complexity for a spring melt period at a sub-arctic mountain basin. The meshing algorithm reduced the total number of computational elements and preserved the spatial heterogeneity of predictions.

Biogenic isoprene emissions driven by regional weather predictions using different initialization methods: case studies during the SEAC4RS and DISCOVER-AQ airborne campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Min; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Crawford, James H.; Wisthaler, Armin; Zhan, Xiwu; Hain, Christopher R.; Lee, Pius; Guenther, Alex B.

2017-08-01

Land and atmospheric initial conditions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are often interpolated from a different model output. We perform case studies during NASA's SEAC4RS and DISCOVER-AQ Houston airborne campaigns, demonstrating that using land initial conditions directly downscaled from a coarser resolution dataset led to significant positive biases in the coupled NASA-Unified WRF (NUWRF, version 7) surface and near-surface air temperature and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) around the Missouri Ozarks and Houston, Texas, as well as poorly partitioned latent and sensible heat fluxes. Replacing land initial conditions with the output from a long-term offline Land Information System (LIS) simulation can effectively reduce the positive biases in NUWRF surface air temperature by ˜ 2 °C. We also show that the LIS land initialization can modify surface air temperature errors almost 10 times as effectively as applying a different atmospheric initialization method. The LIS-NUWRF-based isoprene emission calculations by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN, version 2.1) are at least 20 % lower than those computed using the coarser resolution data-initialized NUWRF run, and are closer to aircraft-observation-derived emissions. Higher resolution MEGAN calculations are prone to amplified discrepancies with aircraft-observation-derived emissions on small scales. This is possibly a result of some limitations of MEGAN's parameterization and uncertainty in its inputs on small scales, as well as the representation error and the neglect of horizontal transport in deriving emissions from aircraft data. This study emphasizes the importance of proper land initialization to the coupled atmospheric weather modeling and the follow-on emission modeling. We anticipate it to also be critical to accurately representing other processes included in air quality modeling and chemical data assimilation. Having more confidence in the weather inputs is also beneficial for determining and quantifying the other sources of uncertainties (e.g., parameterization, other input data) of the models that they drive.

A nutrient dependant switch explains mutually exclusive existence of meiosis and mitosis initiation in budding yeast.

PubMed

Wannige, C T; Kulasiri, D; Samarasinghe, S

2014-01-21

Nutrients from living environment are vital for the survival and growth of any organism. Budding yeast diploid cells decide to grow by mitosis type cell division or decide to create unique, stress resistant spores by meiosis type cell division depending on the available nutrient conditions. To gain a molecular systems level understanding of the nutrient dependant switching between meiosis and mitosis initiation in diploid cells of budding yeast, we develop a theoretical model based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) including the mitosis initiator and its relations to budding yeast meiosis initiation network. Our model accurately and qualitatively predicts the experimentally revealed temporal variations of related proteins under different nutrient conditions as well as the diverse mutant studies related to meiosis and mitosis initiation. Using this model, we show how the meiosis and mitosis initiators form an all-or-none type bistable switch in response to available nutrient level (mainly nitrogen). The transitions to and from meiosis or mitosis initiation states occur via saddle node bifurcation. This bidirectional switch helps the optimal usage of available nutrients and explains the mutually exclusive existence of meiosis and mitosis pathways. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of initial conditions of a catchment on seasonal streamflow prediction using ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) technique for the Rangitata and Waitaki River basins on the South Island of New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Shailesh Kumar; Zammit, Christian; Hreinsson, Einar; Woods, Ross; Clark, Martyn; Hamlet, Alan

2013-04-01

Increased access to water is a key pillar of the New Zealand government plan for economic growths. Variable climatic conditions coupled with market drivers and increased demand on water resource result in critical decision made by water managers based on climate and streamflow forecast. Because many of these decisions have serious economic implications, accurate forecast of climate and streamflow are of paramount importance (eg irrigated agriculture and electricity generation). New Zealand currently does not have a centralized, comprehensive, and state-of-the-art system in place for providing operational seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts to guide water resources management decisions. As a pilot effort, we implement and evaluate an experimental ensemble streamflow forecasting system for the Waitaki and Rangitata River basins on New Zealand's South Island using a hydrologic simulation model (TopNet) and the familiar ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) paradigm for estimating forecast uncertainty. To provide a comprehensive database for evaluation of the forecasting system, first a set of retrospective model states simulated by the hydrologic model on the first day of each month were archived from 1972-2009. Then, using the hydrologic simulation model, each of these historical model states was paired with the retrospective temperature and precipitation time series from each historical water year to create a database of retrospective hindcasts. Using the resulting database, the relative importance of initial state variables (such as soil moisture and snowpack) as fundamental drivers of uncertainties in forecasts were evaluated for different seasons and lead times. The analysis indicate that the sensitivity of flow forecast to initial condition uncertainty is depend on the hydrological regime and season of forecast. However initial conditions do not have a large impact on seasonal flow uncertainties for snow dominated catchments. Further analysis indicates that this result is valid when the hindcast database is conditioned by ENSO classification. As a result hydrological forecasts based on ESP technique, where present initial conditions with histological forcing data are used may be plausible for New Zealand catchments.

Cosmological perturbation theory and the spherical collapse model - II. Non-Gaussian initial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaztanaga, Enrique; Fosalba, Pablo

1998-12-01

In Paper I of this series, we introduced the spherical collapse (SC) approximation in Lagrangian space as a way of estimating the cumulants xi_J of density fluctuations in cosmological perturbation theory (PT). Within this approximation, the dynamics is decoupled from the statistics of the initial conditions, so we are able to present here the cumulants for generic non-Gaussian initial conditions, which can be estimated to arbitrary order including the smoothing effects. The SC model turns out to recover the exact leading-order non-linear contributions up to terms involving non-local integrals of the J-point functions. We argue that for the hierarchical ratios S_J, these non-local terms are subdominant and tend to compensate each other. The resulting predictions show a non-trivial time evolution that can be used to discriminate between models of structure formation. We compare these analytic results with non-Gaussian N-body simulations, which turn out to be in very good agreement up to scales where sigma<~1.

Hydrodynamic collectivity in proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wenbin; Zhou, You; Xu, Hao-jie; Deng, Weitian; Song, Huichao

2018-05-01

In this paper, we investigate the hydrodynamic collectivity in proton-proton (p-p) collisions at 13 TeV, using iEBE-VISHNU hybrid model with HIJING initial conditions. With properly tuned parameters, our model simulations can remarkably describe all the measured 2-particle correlations, including integrated and differential elliptic flow coefficients for all charged and identified hadrons (KS0 , Λ). However, our model calculations show positive 4-particle cumulant c2 { 4 } in high multiplicity pp collisions, and can not reproduce the negative c2 { 4 } measured in experiment. Further investigations on the HIJING initial conditions show that the fluctuations of the second order anisotropy coefficient ε2 increases with the increase of its mean value, which leads to a similar trend of the flow fluctuations. For a simultaneous description of the 2- and 4- particle cumulants within the hydrodynamic framework, it is required to have significant improvements on initial condition for pp collisions, which is still lacking of knowledge at the moment.

ENSO Predictions in an Intermediate Coupled Model Influenced by Removing Initial Condition Errors in Sensitive Areas: A Target Observation Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Ling-Jiang; Gao, Chuan; Zhang, Rong-Hua

2018-07-01

Previous studies indicate that ENSO predictions are particularly sensitive to the initial conditions in some key areas (socalled "sensitive areas"). And yet, few studies have quantified improvements in prediction skill in the context of an optimal observing system. In this study, the impact on prediction skill is explored using an intermediate coupled model in which errors in initial conditions formed to make ENSO predictions are removed in certain areas. Based on ideal observing system simulation experiments, the importance of various observational networks on improvement of El Niño prediction skill is examined. The results indicate that the initial states in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are important to improve El Ni˜no prediction skill effectively. When removing the initial condition errors in the central equatorial Pacific, ENSO prediction errors can be reduced by 25%. Furthermore, combinations of various subregions are considered to demonstrate the efficiency on ENSO prediction skill. Particularly, seasonally varying observational networks are suggested to improve the prediction skill more effectively. For example, in addition to observing in the central equatorial Pacific and its north throughout the year, increasing observations in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April to October is crucially important, which can improve the prediction accuracy by 62%. These results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach on detecting sensitive areas for target observations.

Global strong solutions to the one-dimensional heat-conductive model for planar non-resistive magnetohydrodynamics with large data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yang

2018-06-01

In this paper, we consider the initial-boundary value problem to the one-dimensional compressible heat-conductive model for planar non-resistive magnetohydrodynamics. By making full use of the effective viscous flux and an analogue, together with the structure of the equations, global existence and uniqueness of strong solutions are obtained on condition that the initial density is bounded below away from vacuum and the heat conductivity coefficient κ satisfies the growth condition κ _1(1+θ^{α })≤ κ (θ)≤ κ _2(1+θ^{α }),\\quad { for some }0< α < ∞, with κ _1,κ _2 being positive constants. Moreover, global solvability of strong solutions is shown with the initial vacuum. The results are obtained without any smallness restriction to the initial data.

Continuous-time model of structural balance

PubMed Central

Marvel, Seth A.; Kleinberg, Jon; Kleinberg, Robert D.; Strogatz, Steven H.

2011-01-01

It is not uncommon for certain social networks to divide into two opposing camps in response to stress. This happens, for example, in networks of political parties during winner-takes-all elections, in networks of companies competing to establish technical standards, and in networks of nations faced with mounting threats of war. A simple model for these two-sided separations is the dynamical system dX/dt = X2, where X is a matrix of the friendliness or unfriendliness between pairs of nodes in the network. Previous simulations suggested that only two types of behavior were possible for this system: Either all relationships become friendly or two hostile factions emerge. Here we prove that for generic initial conditions, these are indeed the only possible outcomes. Our analysis yields a closed-form expression for faction membership as a function of the initial conditions and implies that the initial amount of friendliness in large social networks (started from random initial conditions) determines whether they will end up in intractable conflict or global harmony. PMID:21199953

Continuous-time model of structural balance.

PubMed

Marvel, Seth A; Kleinberg, Jon; Kleinberg, Robert D; Strogatz, Steven H

2011-02-01

It is not uncommon for certain social networks to divide into two opposing camps in response to stress. This happens, for example, in networks of political parties during winner-takes-all elections, in networks of companies competing to establish technical standards, and in networks of nations faced with mounting threats of war. A simple model for these two-sided separations is the dynamical system dX/dt = X(2), where X is a matrix of the friendliness or unfriendliness between pairs of nodes in the network. Previous simulations suggested that only two types of behavior were possible for this system: Either all relationships become friendly or two hostile factions emerge. Here we prove that for generic initial conditions, these are indeed the only possible outcomes. Our analysis yields a closed-form expression for faction membership as a function of the initial conditions and implies that the initial amount of friendliness in large social networks (started from random initial conditions) determines whether they will end up in intractable conflict or global harmony.

Assessing predictability of a hydrological stochastic-dynamical system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelfan, Alexander

2014-05-01

The water cycle includes the processes with different memory that creates potential for predictability of hydrological system based on separating its long and short memory components and conditioning long-term prediction on slower evolving components (similar to approaches in climate prediction). In the face of the Panta Rhei IAHS Decade questions, it is important to find a conceptual approach to classify hydrological system components with respect to their predictability, define predictable/unpredictable patterns, extend lead-time and improve reliability of hydrological predictions based on the predictable patterns. Representation of hydrological systems as the dynamical systems subjected to the effect of noise (stochastic-dynamical systems) provides possible tool for such conceptualization. A method has been proposed for assessing predictability of hydrological system caused by its sensitivity to both initial and boundary conditions. The predictability is defined through a procedure of convergence of pre-assigned probabilistic measure (e.g. variance) of the system state to stable value. The time interval of the convergence, that is the time interval during which the system losses memory about its initial state, defines limit of the system predictability. The proposed method was applied to assess predictability of soil moisture dynamics in the Nizhnedevitskaya experimental station (51.516N; 38.383E) located in the agricultural zone of the central European Russia. A stochastic-dynamical model combining a deterministic one-dimensional model of hydrothermal regime of soil with a stochastic model of meteorological inputs was developed. The deterministic model describes processes of coupled heat and moisture transfer through unfrozen/frozen soil and accounts for the influence of phase changes on water flow. The stochastic model produces time series of daily meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature and humidity), whose statistical properties are similar to those of the corresponding series of the actual data measured at the station. Beginning from the initial conditions and being forced by Monte-Carlo generated synthetic meteorological series, the model simulated diverging trajectories of soil moisture characteristics (water content of soil column, moisture of different soil layers, etc.). Limit of predictability of the specific characteristic was determined through time of stabilization of variance of the characteristic between the trajectories, as they move away from the initial state. Numerical experiments were carried out with the stochastic-dynamical model to analyze sensitivity of the soil moisture predictability assessments to uncertainty in the initial conditions, to determine effects of the soil hydraulic properties and processes of soil freezing on the predictability. It was found, particularly, that soil water content predictability is sensitive to errors in the initial conditions and strongly depends on the hydraulic properties of soil under both unfrozen and frozen conditions. Even if the initial conditions are "well-established", the assessed predictability of water content of unfrozen soil does not exceed 30-40 days, while for frozen conditions it may be as long as 3-4 months. The latter creates opportunity for utilizing the autumn water content of soil as the predictor for spring snowmelt runoff in the region under consideration.

Model Error Estimation for the CPTEC Eta Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tippett, Michael K.; daSilva, Arlindo

1999-01-01

Statistical data assimilation systems require the specification of forecast and observation error statistics. Forecast error is due to model imperfections and differences between the initial condition and the actual state of the atmosphere. Practical four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) methods try to fit the forecast state to the observations and assume that the model error is negligible. Here with a number of simplifying assumption, a framework is developed for isolating the model error given the forecast error at two lead-times. Two definitions are proposed for the Talagrand ratio tau, the fraction of the forecast error due to model error rather than initial condition error. Data from the CPTEC Eta Model running operationally over South America are used to calculate forecast error statistics and lower bounds for tau.

Star formation in a hierarchical model for Cloud Complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, N.; Parravano, A.

The effects of the external and initial conditions on the star formation processes in Molecular Cloud Complexes are examined in the context of a schematic model. The model considers a hierarchical system with five predefined phases: warm gas, neutral gas, low density molecular gas, high density molecular gas and protostars. The model follows the mass evolution of each substructure by computing its mass exchange with their parent and children. The parent-child mass exchange depends on the radiation density at the interphase, which is produced by the radiation coming from the stars that form at the end of the hierarchical structure, and by the external radiation field. The system is chaotic in the sense that its temporal evolution is very sensitive to small changes in the initial or external conditions. However, global features such as the star formation efficience and the Initial Mass Function are less affected by those variations.

Metamorphic sole genesis at the base of ophiolite nappes: Insights from numerical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamato, Philippe; Agard, Philippe; Duretz, Thibault

2015-04-01

Obduction emplaces oceanic lithosphere on top of continental lithosphere. Although a number of studies have focused on this enigmatic process, the initial stages of obduction remain poorly understood. Field, petrological, and geochronological data reveal that during the first stages of the obduction (i.e., during the first 1-2 Myrs) a HT-LP metamorphic sole (~700-800 ° C and ~1 GPa) is systematically welded at the base of ophiolite nappes. However, the reason why such welding of the ophiolite soles occurs at these particular P-T conditions, and only at the onset of obduction, is still an open issue. The aim of this study is to explore the conditions required to explain the genesis of metamorphic soles. For this, we employ two-dimensional numerical modelling, constrained by the wealth of available data from the Oman ophiolite. We first present a thermo-kinematic model in which the velocity field is prescribed in order to simulate obduction initiation. The heat advection-diffusion equation is solved at each time step. The model is intentionally kept simple in order to control each parameter (e.g., convergence rate, dip angle, thermal age) and to test its influence on the resulting P-T conditions obtained through time along the obduction interface. Results show that the key factor allowing the formation of metamorphic soles is the age of the oceanic lithosphere involved. Moreover, we speculate that the reason why metamorphic soles are always welded at the same P-T conditions is due to the fact that, at these particular conditions, strength jumps occur within the oceanic lithosphere. These jumps lead to changes in strain localisation and allow the spalling of oceanic crust and its juxtaposition to the ophiolite nappe. This hypothesis is further tested using thermo-mechanical models in which the obduction initiates dynamically (only initial and boundary conditions are prescribed). The interplay between the temperature evolution and the mechanical behaviour is then discussed.

Evaluation of Straight and Swept Ramp Obstacles on Enhancing Deflagration-to-Detonation Transition in Pulse Detonation Engines

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

models attempted to bracket the extremes of the conditions of interest. These conditions were Mach 2 and Mach 3 shocks , with initial medium...later, but all traces have been expanded to the area of interest. Pressure readings were primarily used to measure shock speeds, and initially used...results for the clean tube configuration. The characteristics of the initial shock are similar, and are comparable for all configurations tested

The Initiation of Solar Eruptions by Flux Emergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leake, J. E.; Linton, M.; Antiochos, S. K.

2013-12-01

Understanding the mechanism for the initiation of solar eruptions, or coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is a vital step in the prediction of space weather. There are a number of different theoretical and numerical magnetic models for the initiation of CMEs, and to some extent they all rely on idealized initial conditions or boundary conditions. These idealizations typically involve the presence of pre-formed sheared magnetic fields in the corona, which contain enough free energy to drive an eruption, or the generation of sheared magnetic fields by velocity/electric field boundary flows. The roots of coronal magnetic fields lie in the convection zone, and to understand the CME initiation mechanism, we must understand how these convection zone fields emerge from the high beta convection zone into the low beta corona. Using visco-resistive MHD numerical simulations, we show how simple convection zone magnetic fields that are consistent with our understanding of the solar dynamo can dynamically emerge through the photosphere/chromosphere and into the corona and form sheared magnetic structures which are capable of erupting and creating CMEs. These results extend current CME models by introducing increased realism and removing the idealized initial coronal field conditions and kinematic boundary conditions, which is an important step in relating space weather and the Sun's dynamo generation of magnetic field. This work was funded by NASA's 'Living With a Star' program.

Impact of atmosphere and land surface initial conditions on seasonal forecast of global surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Materia, Stefano; Borrelli, Andrea; Bellucci, Alessio; Alessandri, Andrea; Di Pietro, Pierluigi; Athanasiadis, Panagiotis; Navarra, Antonio; Gualdi, Silvio

2014-05-01

The impact of land surface and atmosphere initialization on the forecast skill of a seasonal prediction system is investigated, and an effort to disentangle the role played by the individual components to the global predictability is done, via a hierarchy of seasonal forecast experiments performed under different initialization strategies. A realistic atmospheric initial state allows an improved equilibrium between the ocean and overlying atmosphere, mitigating the coupling shock and possibly increasing the model predictive skill in the ocean. In fact, in a few regions characterized by strong air-sea coupling, the atmosphere initial condition affects the forecast skill for several months. In particular, the ENSO region, the eastern tropical Atlantic and the North Pacific benefit significantly from the atmosphere initialization. On mainland, the impact of atmospheric initial conditions is detected in the early phase of the forecast, while the quality of land surface initialization affects the forecast skill in the following lead seasons. The winter forecast in the high latitude plains of Siberia and Canada benefit from the snow initialization, while the impact of soil moisture initial state is particularly effective in the Mediterranean region, in central Asia and Australia. However, initialization through land surface reanalysis does not systematically guarantee an enhancement of the predictive skill: the quality of the forecast is sometimes higher for the non-constrained model. Overall, the introduction of a realistic initialization of land surface and atmosphere substantially increases skill and accuracy. However, further developments in the operating procedure for land surface initialization are required for more accurate seasonal forecasts.

Monthly mean simulation experiments with a course-mesh global atmospheric model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Klugman, R.; Lutz, R. J.; Notario, J. J.

1978-01-01

Substitution of observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as lower boundary conditions, in place of climatological SSTs, failed to improve the model simulations. While the impact of SST anomalies on the model output is greater at sea level than at upper levels the impact on the monthly mean simulations is not beneficial at any level. Shifts of one and two days in initialization time produced small, but non-trivial, changes in the model-generated monthly mean synoptic fields. No improvements in the mean simulations resulted from the use of either time-averaged initial data or re-initialization with time-averaged early model output. The noise level of the model, as determined from a multiple initial state perturbation experiment, was found to be generally low, but with a noisier response to initial state errors in high latitudes than the tropics.

Boiling water jet outflow from a thin nozzle: spatial modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolotnova, R. Kh.; Korobchinskaya, V. A.

2017-09-01

This study presents dual-temperature two-phase model for liquid-vapor mixture with account for evaporation and inter-phase heat transfer (taken in single-velocity single-pressure approximation). Simulation was performed using the shock-capturing method and moving Lagrangian grids. Analysis was performed for simulated and experimental values of nucleation frequency (for refining the initial number and radius of microbubbles) which affect the evaporation rate. Validity of 2D and 1D simulation was examined through comparison with experimental data. The peculiarities of the water-steam formation at the initial stage of outflow through a thin nozzle were studied for different initial equilibrium states of water for the conditions close to chosen experimental conditions.

Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

2017-12-01

Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

On the generation of climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy; Phipps, Steven J.

2014-10-01

Climate model ensembles are used to estimate uncertainty in future projections, typically by interpreting the ensemble distribution for a particular variable probabilistically. There are, however, different ways to produce climate model ensembles that yield different results, and therefore different probabilities for a future change in a variable. Perhaps equally importantly, there are different approaches to interpreting the ensemble distribution that lead to different conclusions. Here we use a reduced-resolution climate system model to compare three common ways to generate ensembles: initial conditions perturbation, physical parameter perturbation, and structural changes. Despite these three approaches conceptually representing very different categories of uncertainty within a modelling system, when comparing simulations to observations of surface air temperature they can be very difficult to separate. Using the twentieth century CMIP5 ensemble for comparison, we show that initial conditions ensembles, in theory representing internal variability, significantly underestimate observed variance. Structural ensembles, perhaps less surprisingly, exhibit over-dispersion in simulated variance. We argue that future climate model ensembles may need to include parameter or structural perturbation members in addition to perturbed initial conditions members to ensure that they sample uncertainty due to internal variability more completely. We note that where ensembles are over- or under-dispersive, such as for the CMIP5 ensemble, estimates of uncertainty need to be treated with care.

Modeling the turbulent kinetic energy equation for compressible, homogeneous turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aupoix, B.; Blaisdell, G. A.; Reynolds, William C.; Zeman, Otto

1990-01-01

The turbulent kinetic energy transport equation, which is the basis of turbulence models, is investigated for homogeneous, compressible turbulence using direct numerical simulations performed at CTR. It is shown that the partition between dilatational and solenoidal modes is very sensitive to initial conditions for isotropic decaying turbulence but not for sheared flows. The importance of the dilatational dissipation and of the pressure-dilatation term is evidenced from simulations and a transport equation is proposed to evaluate the pressure-dilatation term evolution. This transport equation seems to work well for sheared flows but does not account for initial condition sensitivity in isotropic decay. An improved model is proposed.

Preliminary Work for Modeling the Propellers of an Aircraft as a Noise Source in an Acoustic Boundary Element Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vlahopoulos, Nickolas; Lyle, Karen H.; Burley, Casey L.

1998-01-01

An algorithm for generating appropriate velocity boundary conditions for an acoustic boundary element analysis from the kinematics of an operating propeller is presented. It constitutes the initial phase of Integrating sophisticated rotorcraft models into a conventional boundary element analysis. Currently, the pressure field is computed by a linear approximation. An initial validation of the developed process was performed by comparing numerical results to test data for the external acoustic pressure on the surface of a tilt-rotor aircraft for one flight condition.

Posttest REALP4 analysis of LOFT experiment L1-3A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, J.R.; Holmstrom, H.L.O.

This report presents selected results of posttest RELAP4 modeling of LOFT loss-of-coolant experiment L1-3A, a double-ended isothermal cold leg break with lower plenum emergency core coolant injection. Comparisons are presented between the pretest prediction, the posttest analysis, and the experimental data. It is concluded that pressurizer modeling is important for accurately predicting system behavior during the initial portion of saturated blowdown. Using measured initial conditions rather than nominal specified initial conditions did not influence the system model results significantly. Using finer nodalization in the reactor vessel improved the prediction of the system pressure history by minimizing steam condensation effects. Unequalmore » steam condensation between the downcomer and core volumes appear to cause the manometer oscillations observed in both the pretest and posttest RELAP4 analysis.« less

Controlled Release Drug Delivery via Polymeric Microspheres: A Neat Application of the Spherical Diffusion Equation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ormerod, C. S.; Nelson, M.

2017-01-01

Various applied mathematics undergraduate skills are demonstrated via an adaptation of Crank's axisymmetric spherical diffusion model. By the introduction of a one-parameter Heaviside initial condition, the pharmaceutically problematic initial mass flux is attenuated. Quantities germane to the pharmaceutical industry are examined and the model is…

Data assimilation method based on the constraints of confidence region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yong; Li, Siming; Sheng, Yao; Wang, Luheng

2018-03-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a distinguished data assimilation method that is widely used and studied in various fields including methodology and oceanography. However, due to the limited sample size or imprecise dynamics model, it is usually easy for the forecast error variance to be underestimated, which further leads to the phenomenon of filter divergence. Additionally, the assimilation results of the initial stage are poor if the initial condition settings differ greatly from the true initial state. To address these problems, the variance inflation procedure is usually adopted. In this paper, we propose a new method based on the constraints of a confidence region constructed by the observations, called EnCR, to estimate the inflation parameter of the forecast error variance of the EnKF method. In the new method, the state estimate is more robust to both the inaccurate forecast models and initial condition settings. The new method is compared with other adaptive data assimilation methods in the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 models under various model parameter settings. The simulation results show that the new method performs better than the competing methods.

Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

2011-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.

Empirical membrane lifetime model for heavy duty fuel cell systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macauley, Natalia; Watson, Mark; Lauritzen, Michael; Knights, Shanna; Wang, G. Gary; Kjeang, Erik

2016-12-01

Heavy duty fuel cells used in transportation system applications such as transit buses expose the fuel cell membranes to conditions that can lead to lifetime-limiting membrane failure via combined chemical and mechanical degradation. Highly durable membranes and reliable predictive models are therefore needed in order to achieve the ultimate heavy duty fuel cell lifetime target of 25,000 h. In the present work, an empirical membrane lifetime model was developed based on laboratory data from a suite of accelerated membrane durability tests. The model considers the effects of cell voltage, temperature, oxygen concentration, humidity cycling, humidity level, and platinum in the membrane using inverse power law and exponential relationships within the framework of a general log-linear Weibull life-stress statistical distribution. The obtained model is capable of extrapolating the membrane lifetime from accelerated test conditions to use level conditions during field operation. Based on typical conditions for the Whistler, British Columbia fuel cell transit bus fleet, the model predicts a stack lifetime of 17,500 h and a membrane leak initiation time of 9200 h. Validation performed with the aid of a field operated stack confirmed the initial goal of the model to predict membrane lifetime within 20% of the actual operating time.

Anomalous transport in cellular flows: The role of initial conditions and aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pöschke, Patrick; Sokolov, Igor M.; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A.; Zaks, Michael A.

2016-09-01

We consider the diffusion-advection problem in two simple cellular flow models (often invoked as examples of subdiffusive tracer motion) and concentrate on the intermediate time range, in which the tracer motion indeed may show subdiffusion. We perform extensive numerical simulations of the systems under different initial conditions and show that the pure intermediate-time subdiffusion regime is only evident when the particles start at the border between different cells, i.e., at the separatrix, and is less pronounced or absent for other initial conditions. The motion moreover shows quite peculiar aging properties, which are also mirrored in the behavior of the time-averaged mean squared displacement for single trajectories. This kind of behavior is due to the complex motion of tracers trapped inside the cell and is absent in classical models based on continuous-time random walks with no dynamics in the trapped state.

Sensitivity of physical parameterizations on prediction of tropical cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal using WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raju, P. V. S.; Potty, Jayaraman; Mohanty, U. C.

2011-09-01

Comprehensive sensitivity analyses on physical parameterization schemes of Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW core) model have been carried out for the prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones by taking the example of cyclone Nargis, which formed over the Bay of Bengal and hit Myanmar on 02 May 2008, causing widespread damages in terms of human and economic losses. The model performances are also evaluated with different initial conditions of 12 h intervals starting from the cyclogenesis to the near landfall time. The initial and boundary conditions for all the model simulations are drawn from the global operational analysis and forecast products of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-GFS) available for the public at 1° lon/lat resolution. The results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that a combination of non-local parabolic type exchange coefficient PBL scheme of Yonsei University (YSU), deep and shallow convection scheme with mass flux approach for cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch), and NCEP operational cloud microphysics scheme with diagnostic mixed phase processes (Ferrier), predicts better track and intensity as compared against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates. Further, the final choice of the physical parameterization schemes selected from the above sensitivity experiments is used for model integration with different initial conditions. The results reveal that the cyclone track, intensity and time of landfall are well simulated by the model with an average intensity error of about 8 hPa, maximum wind error of 12 m s-1and track error of 77 km. The simulations also show that the landfall time error and intensity error are decreasing with delayed initial condition, suggesting that the model forecast is more dependable when the cyclone approaches the coast. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are also well simulated by the model and comparable with the TRMM estimates.

Ensemble Analysis of Variational Assimilation of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Data into Distributed Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.; Seo, D.; Koren, V.

2008-12-01

A prototype 4DVAR (four-dimensional variational) data assimilator for gridded Sacramento soil-moisture accounting and kinematic-wave routing models in the Hydrology Laboratory's Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) has been developed. The prototype assimilates streamflow and in-situ soil moisture data and adjusts gridded precipitation and climatological potential evaporation data to reduce uncertainty in the model initial conditions for improved monitoring and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture at the outlet and interior locations within the catchment. Due to large degrees of freedom involved, data assimilation (DA) into distributed hydrologic models is complex. To understand and assess sensitivity of the performance of DA to uncertainties in the model initial conditions and in the data, two synthetic experiments have been carried out in an ensemble framework. Results from the synthetic experiments shed much light on the potential and limitations with DA into distributed models. For initial real-world assessment, the prototype DA has also been applied to the headwater basin at Eldon near the Oklahoma-Arkansas border. We present these results and describe the next steps.

Calculation of the Initial Magnetic Field for Mercury's Magnetosphere Hybrid Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, Igor; Parunakian, David; Dyadechkin, Sergey; Belenkaya, Elena; Khodachenko, Maxim; Kallio, Esa; Alho, Markku

2018-03-01

Several types of numerical models are used to analyze the interactions of the solar wind flow with Mercury's magnetosphere, including kinetic models that determine magnetic and electric fields based on the spatial distribution of charges and currents, magnetohydrodynamic models that describe plasma as a conductive liquid, and hybrid models that describe ions kinetically in collisionless mode and represent electrons as a massless neutralizing liquid. The structure of resulting solutions is determined not only by the chosen set of equations that govern the behavior of plasma, but also by the initial and boundary conditions; i.e., their effects are not limited to the amount of computational work required to achieve a quasi-stationary solution. In this work, we have proposed using the magnetic field computed by the paraboloid model of Mercury's magnetosphere as the initial condition for subsequent hybrid modeling. The results of the model have been compared to measurements performed by the Messenger spacecraft during a single crossing of the magnetosheath and the magnetosphere. The selected orbit lies in the terminator plane, which allows us to observe two crossings of the bow shock and the magnetopause. In our calculations, we have defined the initial parameters of the global magnetospheric current systems in a way that allows us to minimize paraboloid magnetic field deviation along the trajectory of the Messenger from the experimental data. We have shown that the optimal initial field parameters include setting the penetration of a partial interplanetary magnetic field into the magnetosphere with a penetration coefficient of 0.2.

UXO Burial Prediction Fidelity

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

been developed to predict the initial penetration depth of underwater mines . SERDP would like to know if and how these existing mine models could be...designed for near-cylindrical mines —for munitions, however, projectile-specific drag, lift, and moment coefficients are needed for estimating...as inputs.  Other models have been built to estimate these initial conditions for mines dropped into water.  Can these mine models be useful for

Parametrisation of initial conditions for seasonal stream flow forecasting in the Swiss Rhine basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schick, Simon; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf

2016-04-01

Current climate forecast models show - to the best of our knowledge - low skill in forecasting climate variability in Central Europe at seasonal lead times. When it comes to seasonal stream flow forecasting, initial conditions thus play an important role. Here, initial conditions refer to the catchments moisture at the date of forecast, i.e. snow depth, stream flow and lake level, soil moisture content, and groundwater level. The parametrisation of these initial conditions can take place at various spatial and temporal scales. Examples are the grid size of a distributed model or the time aggregation of predictors in statistical models. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the extent to which the parametrisation of initial conditions at different spatial scales leads to differences in forecast errors. To do so, we conduct a forecast experiment for the Swiss Rhine at Basel, which covers parts of Germany, Austria, and Switzerland and is southerly bounded by the Alps. Seasonal mean stream flow is defined for the time aggregation of 30, 60, and 90 days and forecasted at 24 dates within the calendar year, i.e. at the 1st and 16th day of each month. A regression model is employed due to the various anthropogenic effects on the basins hydrology, which often are not quantifiable but might be grasped by a simple black box model. Furthermore, the pool of candidate predictors consists of antecedent temperature, precipitation, and stream flow only. This pragmatic approach follows the fact that observations of variables relevant for hydrological storages are either scarce in space or time (soil moisture, groundwater level), restricted to certain seasons (snow depth), or regions (lake levels, snow depth). For a systematic evaluation, we therefore focus on the comprehensive archives of meteorological observations and reanalyses to estimate the initial conditions via climate variability prior to the date of forecast. The experiment itself is based on four different approaches, whose differences in model skill were estimated within a rigorous cross-validation framework for the period 1982-2013: The predictands are regressed on antecedent temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. Here, temperature and precipitation constitute basin averages out of the E-OBS gridded data set. As in 1., but temperature and precipitation are used at the E-OBS grid scale (0.25 degree in longitude and latitude) without spatial averaging. As in 1., but the regression model is applied to 66 gauged subcatchments of the Rhine basin. Forecasts for these subcatchments are then simply summed and upscaled to the area of the Rhine basin. As in 3., but the forecasts at the subcatchment scale are additionally weighted in terms of hydrological representativeness of the corresponding subcatchment.

NASA AVOSS Fast-Time Wake Prediction Models: User's Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, Nash'at N.; VanValkenburg, Randal L.; Pruis, Matthew

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing and testing fast-time wake transport and decay models to safely enhance the capacity of the National Airspace System (NAS). The fast-time wake models are empirical algorithms used for real-time predictions of wake transport and decay based on aircraft parameters and ambient weather conditions. The aircraft dependent parameters include the initial vortex descent velocity and the vortex pair separation distance. The atmospheric initial conditions include vertical profiles of temperature or potential temperature, eddy dissipation rate, and crosswind. The current distribution includes the latest versions of the APA (3.4) and the TDP (2.1) models. This User's Guide provides detailed information on the model inputs, file formats, and the model output. An example of a model run and a brief description of the Memphis 1995 Wake Vortex Dataset is also provided.

Thermo-mechanical models of obduction applied to the Oman ophiolite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, Duretz; Philippe, Agard; Philippe, Yamato; Céline, Ducassou; Taras, Gerya; Evguenii, Burov

2015-04-01

During obduction regional-scale fragments of oceanic lithosphere (ophiolites) are emplaced somewhat enigmatically on top of lighter continental lithosphere. We herein use two-dimensional thermo-mechanical models to investigate the feasibility and controlling parameters of obduction. The models are designed using available geological data from the Oman (Semail) ophiolite. Initial and boundary conditions are constrained by plate kinematic and geochronological data and modeling results are validated against petrological and structural observations. The reference model consists of three distinct stages: (1) initiation of oceanic subduction initiation away from Arabian margin, (2) emplacement of the Oman Ophiolite atop the Arabian margin, (2) dome-like exhumation of the subducted Arabian margin beneath the overlying ophiolite. A parametric study suggests that 350-400 km of shortening allows to best fit both the peak P-T conditions of the subducted margin (1.5-2.5 GPa / 450-600°C) and the dimensions of the ophiolite (~170 km width), in agreement with previous estimations. Our results further confirm that the locus of obduction initiation is close to the eastern edge of the Arabian margin (~100 km) and indicate that obduction is facilitated by a strong continental basement rheology.

Alternative Approaches to Land Initialization for Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max; Liu, Ping; Jambor, Urszula

2004-01-01

The seasonal prediction system of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office is used to generate ensembles of summer forecasts utilizing realistic soil moisture initialization. To derive the realistic land states, we drive offline the system's land model with realistic meteorological forcing over the period 1979-1993 (in cooperation with the Global Land Data Assimilation System project at GSFC) and then extract the state variables' values on the chosen forecast start dates. A parallel series of forecast ensembles is performed with a random (though climatologically consistent) set of land initial conditions; by comparing the two sets of ensembles, we can isolate the impact of land initialization on forecast skill from that of the imposed SSTs. The base initialization experiment is supplemented with several forecast ensembles that use alternative initialization techniques. One ensemble addresses the impact of minimizing climate drift in the system through the scaling of the initial conditions, and another is designed to isolate the importance of the precipitation signal from that of all other signals in the antecedent offline forcing. A third ensemble includes a more realistic initialization of the atmosphere along with the land initialization. The impact of each variation on forecast skill is quantified.

Assimilation of water temperature and discharge data for ensemble water temperature forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouellet-Proulx, Sébastien; Chimi Chiadjeu, Olivier; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; St-Hilaire, André

2017-11-01

Recent work demonstrated the value of water temperature forecasts to improve water resources allocation and highlighted the importance of quantifying their uncertainty adequately. In this study, we perform a multisite cascading ensemble assimilation of discharge and water temperature on the Nechako River (Canada) using particle filters. Hydrological and thermal initial conditions were provided to a rainfall-runoff model, coupled to a thermal module, using ensemble meteorological forecasts as inputs to produce 5 day ensemble thermal forecasts. Results show good performances of the particle filters with improvements of the accuracy of initial conditions by more than 65% compared to simulations without data assimilation for both the hydrological and the thermal component. All thermal forecasts returned continuous ranked probability scores under 0.8 °C when using a set of 40 initial conditions and meteorological forecasts comprising 20 members. A greater contribution of the initial conditions to the total uncertainty of the system for 1-dayforecasts is observed (mean ensemble spread = 1.1 °C) compared to meteorological forcings (mean ensemble spread = 0.6 °C). The inclusion of meteorological uncertainty is critical to maintain reliable forecasts and proper ensemble spread for lead times of 2 days and more. This work demonstrates the ability of the particle filters to properly update the initial conditions of a coupled hydrological and thermal model and offers insights regarding the contribution of two major sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in thermal forecasts.

The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, Nikki C.; Errico, Ronald M.

2013-01-01

A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

Influence of Boundary Conditions on Regional Air Quality Simulations—Analysis of AQMEII Phase 3 Results

EPA Science Inventory

Chemical boundary conditions are a key input to regional-scale photochemical models. In this study, performed during the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3), we perform annual simulations over North America with chemical boundary con...

Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation. 1. Comparison over uniform surface conditions

DOE PAGES

Daleu, C. L.; Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.; ...

2015-10-24

Here, as part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak-temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistentmore » implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.« less

Human immune cells' behavior and survival under bioenergetically restricted conditions in an in vitro fracture hematoma model

PubMed Central

Hoff, Paula; Maschmeyer, Patrick; Gaber, Timo; Schütze, Tabea; Raue, Tobias; Schmidt-Bleek, Katharina; Dziurla, René; Schellmann, Saskia; Lohanatha, Ferenz Leonard; Röhner, Eric; Ode, Andrea; Burmester, Gerd-Rüdiger; Duda, Georg N; Perka, Carsten; Buttgereit, Frank

2013-01-01

The initial inflammatory phase of bone fracture healing represents a critical step for the outcome of the healing process. However, both the mechanisms initiating this inflammatory phase and the function of immune cells present at the fracture site are poorly understood. In order to study the early events within a fracture hematoma, we established an in vitro fracture hematoma model: we cultured hematomas forming during an osteotomy (artificial bone fracture) of the femur during total hip arthroplasty (THA) in vitro under bioenergetically controlled conditions. This model allowed us to monitor immune cell populations, cell survival and cytokine expression during the early phase following a fracture. Moreover, this model enabled us to change the bioenergetical conditions in order to mimic the in vivo situation, which is assumed to be characterized by hypoxia and restricted amounts of nutrients. Using this model, we found that immune cells adapt to hypoxia via the expression of angiogenic factors, chemoattractants and pro-inflammatory molecules. In addition, combined restriction of oxygen and nutrient supply enhanced the selective survival of lymphocytes in comparison with that of myeloid derived cells (i.e., neutrophils). Of note, non-restricted bioenergetical conditions did not show any similar effects regarding cytokine expression and/or different survival rates of immune cell subsets. In conclusion, we found that the bioenergetical conditions are among the crucial factors inducing the initial inflammatory phase of fracture healing and are thus a critical step for influencing survival and function of immune cells in the early fracture hematoma. PMID:23396474

Impact of microwave derived soil moisture on hydrologic simulations using a spatially distributed water balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, D. S.; Wood, E. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Mancini, M.

1994-01-01

Spatial distributions of soil moisture over an agricultural watershed with a drainage area of 60 ha were derived from two NASA microwave remote sensors, and then used as a feedback to determine the initial condition for a distributed water balance model. Simulated hydrologic fluxes over a period of twelve days were compared with field observations and with model predictions based on a streamflow derived initial condition. The results indicated that even the low resolution remotely sensed data can improve the hydrologic model's performance in simulating the dynamics of unsaturated zone soil moisture. For the particular watershed under study, the simulated water budget was not sensitive to the resolutions of the microwave sensors.

Frozen into stripes: fate of the critical Ising model after a quench.

PubMed

Blanchard, T; Picco, M

2013-09-01

In this article we study numerically the final state of the two-dimensional ferromagnetic critical Ising model after a quench to zero temperature. Beginning from equilibrium at T_{c}, the system can be blocked in a variety of infinitely long lived stripe states in addition to the ground state. Similar results have already been obtained for an infinite temperature initial condition and an interesting connection to exact percolation crossing probabilities has emerged. Here we complete this picture by providing an example of stripe states precisely related to initial crossing probabilities for various boundary conditions. We thus show that this is not specific to percolation but rather that it depends on the properties of spanning clusters in the initial state.

CMS Nonpayment Policy, Quality Improvement, and Hospital-Acquired Conditions: An Integrative Review.

PubMed

Bae, Sung-Heui

This integrative review synthesized evidence on the consequences of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) nonpayment policy on quality improvement initiatives and hospital-acquired conditions. Fourteen articles were included. This review presents strong evidence that the CMS policy has spurred quality improvement initiatives; however, the relationships between the CMS policy and hospital-acquired conditions are inconclusive. In future research, a comprehensive model of implementation of the CMS nonpayment policy would help us understand the effectiveness of this policy.

Aspect of ECMWF downscaled Regional Climate Modeling in simulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall and dependencies on lateral boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Soumik; Bhatla, R.; Mall, R. K.; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Sahai, A. K.

2018-03-01

Climate model faces considerable difficulties in simulating the rainfall characteristics of southwest summer monsoon. In this study, the dynamical downscaling of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's (ECMWF's) ERA-Interim (EIN15) has been utilized for the simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) through the Regional Climate Model version 4.3 (RegCM-4.3) over the South Asia Co-Ordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) domain. The complexities of model simulation over a particular terrain are generally influenced by factors such as complex topography, coastal boundary, and lack of unbiased initial and lateral boundary conditions. In order to overcome some of these limitations, the RegCM-4.3 is employed for simulating the rainfall characteristics over the complex topographical conditions. For reliable rainfall simulation, implementations of numerous lower boundary conditions are forced in the RegCM-4.3 with specific horizontal grid resolution of 50 km over South Asia CORDEX domain. The analysis is considered for 30 years of climatological simulation of rainfall, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and wind with different vertical levels over the specified region. The dependency of model simulation with the forcing of EIN15 initial and lateral boundary conditions is used to understand the impact of simulated rainfall characteristics during different phases of summer monsoon. The results obtained from this study are used to evaluate the activity of initial conditions of zonal wind circulation speed, which causes an increase in the uncertainty of regional model output over the region under investigation. Further, the results showed that the EIN15 zonal wind circulation lacks sufficient speed over the specified region in a particular time, which was carried forward by the RegCM output and leads to a disrupted regional simulation in the climate model.

Geostatistical applications in ground-water modeling in south-central Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ma, T.-S.; Sophocleous, M.; Yu, Y.-S.

1999-01-01

This paper emphasizes the supportive role of geostatistics in applying ground-water models. Field data of 1994 ground-water level, bedrock, and saltwater-freshwater interface elevations in south-central Kansas were collected and analyzed using the geostatistical approach. Ordinary kriging was adopted to estimate initial conditions for ground-water levels and topography of the Permian bedrock at the nodes of a finite difference grid used in a three-dimensional numerical model. Cokriging was used to estimate initial conditions for the saltwater-freshwater interface. An assessment of uncertainties in the estimated data is presented. The kriged and cokriged estimation variances were analyzed to evaluate the adequacy of data employed in the modeling. Although water levels and bedrock elevations are well described by spherical semivariogram models, additional data are required for better cokriging estimation of the interface data. The geostatistically analyzed data were employed in a numerical model of the Siefkes site in the project area. Results indicate that the computed chloride concentrations and ground-water drawdowns reproduced the observed data satisfactorily.This paper emphasizes the supportive role of geostatistics in applying ground-water models. Field data of 1994 ground-water level, bedrock, and saltwater-freshwater interface elevations in south-central Kansas were collected and analyzed using the geostatistical approach. Ordinary kriging was adopted to estimate initial conditions for ground-water levels and topography of the Permian bedrock at the nodes of a finite difference grid used in a three-dimensional numerical model. Cokriging was used to estimate initial conditions for the saltwater-freshwater interface. An assessment of uncertainties in the estimated data is presented. The kriged and cokriged estimation variances were analyzed to evaluate the adequacy of data employed in the modeling. Although water levels and bedrock elevations are well described by spherical semivariogram models, additional data are required for better cokriging estimation of the interface data. The geostatistically analyzed data were employed in a numerical model of the Siefkes site in the project area. Results indicate that the computed chloride concentrations and ground-water drawdowns reproduced the observed data satisfactorily.

Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Binienda, Wieslaw K.

1995-01-01

Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.

A Comparison between 2010 and 2006 Air Quality and Meteorological Conditions, andEmissions and Boundary Conditions used in Simulations of the AQMEII-2 North American Domain

EPA Science Inventory

Several participants in Phase 2 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII-2) who are applying coupled models to the North American domain are comparing model results for two years: 2006 and 2010. While a key difference of interest between these two yea...

Initializing a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model with Radiosonde Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berri, Guillermo J.; Bertossa, Germán

2018-01-01

A mesoscale boundary-layer model is used to simulate low-level regional wind fields over the La Plata River of South America, a region characterized by a strong daily cycle of land-river surface-temperature contrast and low-level circulations of sea-land breeze type. The initial and boundary conditions are defined from a limited number of local observations and the upper boundary condition is taken from the only radiosonde observations available in the region. The study considers 14 different upper boundary conditions defined from the radiosonde data at standard levels, significant levels, level of the inversion base and interpolated levels at fixed heights, all of them within the first 1500 m. The period of analysis is 1994-2008 during which eight daily observations from 13 weather stations of the region are used to validate the 24-h surface-wind forecast. The model errors are defined as the root-mean-square of relative error in wind-direction frequency distribution and mean wind speed per wind sector. Wind-direction errors are greater than wind-speed errors and show significant dispersion among the different upper boundary conditions, not present in wind speed, revealing a sensitivity to the initialization method. The wind-direction errors show a well-defined daily cycle, not evident in wind speed, with the minimum at noon and the maximum at dusk, but no systematic deterioration with time. The errors grow with the height of the upper boundary condition level, in particular wind direction, and double the errors obtained when the upper boundary condition is defined from the lower levels. The conclusion is that defining the model upper boundary condition from radiosonde data closer to the ground minimizes the low-level wind-field errors throughout the region.

Initial Conditions in the Averaging Cognitive Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noventa, S.; Massidda, D.; Vidotto, G.

2010-01-01

The initial state parameters s[subscript 0] and w[subscript 0] are intricate issues of the averaging cognitive models in Information Integration Theory. Usually they are defined as a measure of prior information (Anderson, 1981; 1982) but there are no general rules to deal with them. In fact, there is no agreement as to their treatment except in…

Estimation of Ecosystem Parameters of the Community Land Model with DREAM: Evaluation of the Potential for Upscaling Net Ecosystem Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendricks Franssen, H. J.; Post, H.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fox, A. M.; Baatz, R.; Kumbhar, P.; Vereecken, H.

2015-12-01

Estimation of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) by land surface models is strongly affected by uncertain ecosystem parameters and initial conditions. A possible approach is the estimation of plant functional type (PFT) specific parameters for sites with measurement data like NEE and application of the parameters at other sites with the same PFT and no measurements. This upscaling strategy was evaluated in this work for sites in Germany and France. Ecosystem parameters and initial conditions were estimated with NEE-time series of one year length, or a time series of only one season. The DREAM(zs) algorithm was used for the estimation of parameters and initial conditions. DREAM(zs) is not limited to Gaussian distributions and can condition to large time series of measurement data simultaneously. DREAM(zs) was used in combination with the Community Land Model (CLM) v4.5. Parameter estimates were evaluated by model predictions at the same site for an independent verification period. In addition, the parameter estimates were evaluated at other, independent sites situated >500km away with the same PFT. The main conclusions are: i) simulations with estimated parameters reproduced better the NEE measurement data in the verification periods, including the annual NEE-sum (23% improvement), annual NEE-cycle and average diurnal NEE course (error reduction by factor 1,6); ii) estimated parameters based on seasonal NEE-data outperformed estimated parameters based on yearly data; iii) in addition, those seasonal parameters were often also significantly different from their yearly equivalents; iv) estimated parameters were significantly different if initial conditions were estimated together with the parameters. We conclude that estimated PFT-specific parameters improve land surface model predictions significantly at independent verification sites and for independent verification periods so that their potential for upscaling is demonstrated. However, simulation results also indicate that possibly the estimated parameters mask other model errors. This would imply that their application at climatic time scales would not improve model predictions. A central question is whether the integration of many different data streams (e.g., biomass, remotely sensed LAI) could solve the problems indicated here.

Emergence of Alpha and Gamma Like Rhythms in a Large Scale Simulation of Interacting Neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaebler, Philipp; Miller, Bruce

2007-10-01

In the normal brain, at first glance the electrical activity appears very random. However, certain frequencies emerge during specific stages of sleep or between quiet wake states. This raises the question of whether current mathematical and computational models of interacting neurons can display similar behavior. A recent model developed by Eugene Izhikevich appears to succeed. However, early dynamical simulations used to detect these patterns were possibly compromised by an over-simplified initial condition and evolution algorithm. Utilizing the same model, but a more robust algorithm, here we present our initial results, showing that these patterns persist under a wide range of initial conditions. We employ spectral analysis of the firing patterns of a system of interacting excitatory and inhibitory neurons to demonstrate a bimodal spectrum centered on two frequencies in the range characteristic of alpha and gamma rhythms in the human brain.

Can the baryon asymmetry arise from initial conditions?

DOE PAGES

Krnjaic, Gordan

2017-08-01

In this letter, we quantify the challenge of explaining the baryon asymmetry using initial conditions in a universe that undergoes inflation. Contrary to lore, we find that such an explanation is possible if netmore » $B-L$ number is stored in a light bosonic field with hyper-Planckian initial displacement and a delicately chosen field velocity prior to inflation. However, such a construction may require extremely tuned coupling constants to ensure that this asymmetry is viably communicated to the Standard Model after reheating; the large field displacement required to overcome inflationary dilution must not induce masses for Standard Model particles or generate dangerous washout processes. While these features are inelegant, this counterexample nonetheless shows that there is no theorem against such an explanation. We also comment on potential observables in the double $$\\beta$$-decay spectrum and on model variations that may allow for more natural realizations.« less

Intake flow modeling in a four stroke diesel using KIVA3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hessel, R. P.; Rutland, C. J.

1993-01-01

Intake flow for a dual intake valved diesel engine is modeled using moving valves and realistic geometries. The objectives are to obtain accurate initial conditions for combustion calculations and to provide a tool for studying intake processes. Global simulation parameters are compared with experimental results and show good agreement. The intake process shows a 30 percent difference in mass flows and average swirl in opposite directions across the two intake valves. The effect of the intake process on the flow field at the end of compression is examined. Modeling the intake flow results in swirl and turbulence characteristics that are quite different from those obtained by conventional methods in which compression stroke initial conditions are assumed.

OEDGE modeling of plasma contamination efficiency of Ar puffing from different divertor locations in EAST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pengfei, ZHANG; Ling, ZHANG; Zhenwei, WU; Zong, XU; Wei, GAO; Liang, WANG; Qingquan, YANG; Jichan, XU; Jianbin, LIU; Hao, QU; Yong, LIU; Juan, HUANG; Chengrui, WU; Yumei, HOU; Zhao, JIN; J, D. ELDER; Houyang, GUO

2018-04-01

Modeling with OEDGE was carried out to assess the initial and long-term plasma contamination efficiency of Ar puffing from different divertor locations, i.e. the inner divertor, the outer divertor and the dome, in the EAST superconducting tokamak for typical ohmic plasma conditions. It was found that the initial Ar contamination efficiency is dependent on the local plasma conditions at the different gas puff locations. However, it quickly approaches a similar steady state value for Ar recycling efficiency >0.9. OEDGE modeling shows that the final equilibrium Ar contamination efficiency is significantly lower for the more closed lower divertor than that for the upper divertor.

Reduction of uncertainty for estimating runoff with the NRCS CN model by the adaptation to local climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durán-Barroso, Pablo; González, Javier; Valdés, Juan B.

2016-04-01

Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. For that purpose, the Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number method (NRCS CN) is the conceptual lumped model more recognized in the field of rainfall-runoff estimation. Furthermore, there is still an ongoing discussion about the procedure to determine the portion of rainfall retained in the watershed before runoff is generated, called as initial abstractions. This concept is computed as a ratio (λ) of the soil potential maximum retention S of the watershed. Initially, this ratio was assumed to be 0.2, but later it has been proposed to be modified to 0.05. However, the actual procedures to convert NRCS CN model parameters obtained under a different hypothesis about λ do not incorporate any adaptation of climatic conditions of each watershed. By this reason, we propose a new simple method for computing model parameters which is adapted to local conditions taking into account regional patterns of climate conditions. After checking the goodness of this procedure against the actual ones in 34 different watersheds located in Ohio and Texas (United States), we concluded that this novel methodology represents the most accurate and efficient alternative to refit the initial abstraction ratio.

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Kabuchanga, Eric; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Limaye, Ashutosh S.

2014-01-01

SPoRT/SERVIR/RCMRD/KMS Collaboration: Builds off strengths of each organization. SPoRT: Transition of satellite, modeling and verification capabilities; SERVIR-Africa/RCMRD: International capacity-building expertise; KMS: Operational organization with regional weather forecasting expertise in East Africa. Hypothesis: Improved land-surface initialization over Eastern Africa can lead to better temperature, moisture, and ultimately precipitation forecasts in NWP models. KMS currently initializes Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with NCEP/Global Forecast System (GFS) model 0.5-deg initial / boundary condition data. LIS will provide much higher-resolution land-surface data at a scale more representative to regional WRF configuration. Future implementation of real-time NESDIS/VIIRS vegetation fraction to further improve land surface representativeness.

The healthy learner model for student chronic condition management--part II: the asthma initiative.

PubMed

Erickson, Cecelia DuPlessis; Splett, Patricia L; Mullett, Sara Stoltzfus; Jensen, Charlotte; Belseth, Stephanie Bisson

2006-12-01

The Healthy Learner Asthma Initiative (HLAI) was designed as a comprehensive, school-community initiative to improve asthma management and produce healthy learners. National asthma guidelines were translated into components of asthma management in the school setting that defined performance expectations and lead to greater quality and consistency of asthma care. The HLAI incorporated evidence-based practice and introduced the role of the asthma resource nurse. Leadership, capacity building, and strong partnerships among school nurses, students, families, and health care providers were essential to the implementation and sustainability of the HLAI. Professional school nursing and evaluation were defined as key requisites to a successful initiative. Evaluation results indicated positive effects on nursing practice, fewer asthma visits to the health office, and better attendance among students who received asthma care in the school health office. The HLAI provided the basis for development of the Healthy Learner Model for Student Chronic Condition Management.

Effect of initial conditions and of intra-event rainfall intensity variability on shallow landslide triggering return period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino

2016-04-01

Assessment of shallow landslide hazard is important for appropriate planning of mitigation measures. Generally, return period of slope instability is assumed as a quantitative metric to map landslide triggering hazard on a catchment. The most commonly applied approach to estimate such return period consists in coupling a physically-based landslide triggering model (hydrological and slope stability) with rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Among the drawbacks of such an approach, the following assumptions may be mentioned: (1) prefixed initial conditions, with no regard to their probability of occurrence, and (2) constant intensity-hyetographs. In our work we propose the use of a Monte Carlo simulation approach in order to investigate the effects of the two above mentioned assumptions. The approach is based on coupling a physically based hydrological and slope stability model with a stochastic rainfall time series generator. By this methodology a long series of synthetic rainfall data can be generated and given as input to a landslide triggering physically based model, in order to compute the return period of landslide triggering as the mean inter-arrival time of a factor of safety less than one. In particular, we couple the Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses model for hourly rainfall generation and the TRIGRS v.2 unsaturated model for the computation of transient response to individual rainfall events. Initial conditions are computed by a water table recession model that links initial conditions at a given event to the final response at the preceding event, thus taking into account variable inter-arrival time between storms. One-thousand years of synthetic hourly rainfall are generated to estimate return periods up to 100 years. Applications are first carried out to map landslide triggering hazard in the Loco catchment, located in highly landslide-prone area of the Peloritani Mountains, Sicily, Italy. Then a set of additional simulations are performed in order to compare the results obtained by the traditional IDF-based method with the Monte Carlo ones. Results indicate that both variability of initial conditions and of intra-event rainfall intensity significantly affect return period estimation. In particular, the common assumption of an initial water table depth at the base of the pervious strata may lead in practice to an overestimation of return period up to one order of magnitude, while the assumption of constant-intensity hyetographs may yield an overestimation by a factor of two or three. Hence, it may be concluded that the analysed simplifications involved in the traditional IDF-based approach generally imply a non-conservative assessment of landslide triggering hazard.

Mars approach for global sensitivity analysis of differential equation models with applications to dynamics of influenza infection.

PubMed

Lee, Yeonok; Wu, Hulin

2012-01-01

Differential equation models are widely used for the study of natural phenomena in many fields. The study usually involves unknown factors such as initial conditions and/or parameters. It is important to investigate the impact of unknown factors (parameters and initial conditions) on model outputs in order to better understand the system the model represents. Apportioning the uncertainty (variation) of output variables of a model according to the input factors is referred to as sensitivity analysis. In this paper, we focus on the global sensitivity analysis of ordinary differential equation (ODE) models over a time period using the multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) as a meta model based on the concept of the variance of conditional expectation (VCE). We suggest to evaluate the VCE analytically using the MARS model structure of univariate tensor-product functions which is more computationally efficient. Our simulation studies show that the MARS model approach performs very well and helps to significantly reduce the computational cost. We present an application example of sensitivity analysis of ODE models for influenza infection to further illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method.

Non-equilibrium dynamics from RPMD and CMD.

PubMed

Welsch, Ralph; Song, Kai; Shi, Qiang; Althorpe, Stuart C; Miller, Thomas F

2016-11-28

We investigate the calculation of approximate non-equilibrium quantum time correlation functions (TCFs) using two popular path-integral-based molecular dynamics methods, ring-polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD) and centroid molecular dynamics (CMD). It is shown that for the cases of a sudden vertical excitation and an initial momentum impulse, both RPMD and CMD yield non-equilibrium TCFs for linear operators that are exact for high temperatures, in the t = 0 limit, and for harmonic potentials; the subset of these conditions that are preserved for non-equilibrium TCFs of non-linear operators is also discussed. Furthermore, it is shown that for these non-equilibrium initial conditions, both methods retain the connection to Matsubara dynamics that has previously been established for equilibrium initial conditions. Comparison of non-equilibrium TCFs from RPMD and CMD to Matsubara dynamics at short times reveals the orders in time to which the methods agree. Specifically, for the position-autocorrelation function associated with sudden vertical excitation, RPMD and CMD agree with Matsubara dynamics up to O(t 4 ) and O(t 1 ), respectively; for the position-autocorrelation function associated with an initial momentum impulse, RPMD and CMD agree with Matsubara dynamics up to O(t 5 ) and O(t 2 ), respectively. Numerical tests using model potentials for a wide range of non-equilibrium initial conditions show that RPMD and CMD yield non-equilibrium TCFs with an accuracy that is comparable to that for equilibrium TCFs. RPMD is also used to investigate excited-state proton transfer in a system-bath model, and it is compared to numerically exact calculations performed using a recently developed version of the Liouville space hierarchical equation of motion approach; again, similar accuracy is observed for non-equilibrium and equilibrium initial conditions.

ANALYTICAL APPROXIMATION OF THE BIODEGRADATION RATE FOR IN SITU BIOREMEDIATION OF GROUNDWATER UNDER IDEAL RADIAL FLOW CONDITIONS. (R824785)

EPA Science Inventory

We derive the long-term biodegradation rate of an organic contaminant (substrate) for an in situ bioremediation model with axisymmetric flow conditions. The model presumes that a nonsorbing electron acceptor is injected into a saturated homogeneous porous medium which initially c...

Investigation of models for large-scale meteorological prediction experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.

1981-01-01

An attempt is made to compute the contributions of various surface boundary conditions to the monthly mean states generated by the 7 layer, 8 x 10 GISS climate model (Hansen et al., 1980), and also to examine the influence of initial conditions on the model climate simulations. Obvious climatic controls as the shape and rotation of the Earth, the solar radiation, and the dry composition of the atmosphere are fixed, and only the surface boundary conditions are altered in the various climate simulations.

Reduction of initial shock in decadal predictions using a new initialization strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yujun; Wang, Bin

2017-04-01

Initial shock is a well-known problem occurring in the early years of a decadal prediction when assimilating full-field observations into a coupled model, which directly affects the prediction skill. For the purpose to alleviate this problem, we propose a novel full-field initialization method based on dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar). Different from the available solution strategies including anomaly assimilation and bias correction, it substantially reduces the initial shock through generating more consistent initial conditions for the coupled model, which, along with the model trajectory in one-month windows, best fit the monthly mean analysis data of oceanic temperature and salinity. We evaluate the performance of initialized hindcast experiments according to three proposed indices to measure the intensity of the initial shock. The results indicate that this strategy can obviously reduce the initial shock in decadal predictions by FGOALS-g2 (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2) compared with the commonly-used nudging full-field initialization for the same model as well as the different full-field initialization strategies for other CMIP5 (the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models whose decadal prediction results are available. It is also comparable to or even better than the anomaly initialization methods. Better hindcasts of global mean surface air temperature anomaly are obtained due to the reduction of initial shock by the new initialization scheme.

Improved Modeling of Land-Atmosphere Interactions using a Coupled Version of WRF with the Land Information System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; LaCasse, Katherine M.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Lapenta, William M.; Petars-Lidard, Christa D.

2007-01-01

The exchange of energy and moisture between the Earth's surface and the atmospheric boundary layer plays a critical role in many hydrometeorological processes. Accurate and high-resolution representations of surface properties such as sea-surface temperature (SST), vegetation, soil temperature and moisture content, and ground fluxes are necessary to better understand the Earth-atmosphere interactions and improve numerical predictions of weather and climate phenomena. The NASA/NWS Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center is currently investigating the potential benefits of assimilating high-resolution datasets derived from the NASA moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Goddard Space Flight Center Land Information System (LIS). The LIS is a software framework that integrates satellite and ground-based observational and modeled data along with multiple land surface models (LSMs) and advanced computing tools to accurately characterize land surface states and fluxes. The LIS can be run uncoupled to provide a high-resolution land surface initial condition, and can also be run in a coupled mode with WRF to integrate surface and soil quantities using any of the LSMs available in LIS. The LIS also includes the ability to optimize the initialization of surface and soil variables by tuning the spin-up time period and atmospheric forcing parameters, which cannot be done in the standard WRF. Among the datasets available from MODIS, a leaf-area index field and composite SST analysis are used to improve the lower boundary and initial conditions to the LIS/WRF coupled model over both land and water. Experiments will be conducted to measure the potential benefits from using the coupled LIS/WRF model over the Florida peninsula during May 2004. This month experienced relatively benign weather conditions, which will allow the experiments to focus on the local and mesoscale impacts of the high-resolution MODIS datasets and optimized soil and surface initial conditions. Follow-on experiments will examine the utility of such an optimized WRF configuration for more complex weather scenarios such as convective initiation. This paper will provide an overview of the experiment design and present preliminary results from selected cases in May 2004.

The Healthy Learner Model for Student Chronic Condition Management--Part II: The Asthma Initiative

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erickson, Cecelia DuPlessis; Splett, Patricia L.; Mullett, Sara Stoltzfus; Jensen, Charlotte; Belseth, Stephanie Bisson

2006-01-01

The Healthy Learner Asthma Initiative (HLAI) was designed as a comprehensive, school-community initiative to improve asthma management and produce healthy learners. National asthma guidelines were translated into components of asthma management in the school setting that defined performance expectations and lead to greater quality and consistency…

Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heimbach, Patrick

2016-02-06

A main research objectives of PISCEES is the development of formal methods for quantifying uncertainties in ice sheet modeling. Uncertainties in simulating and projecting mass loss from the polar ice sheets arise primarily from initial conditions, surface and basal boundary conditions, and model parameters. In general terms, two main chains of uncertainty propagation may be identified: 1. inverse propagation of observation and/or prior onto posterior control variable uncertainties; 2. forward propagation of prior or posterior control variable uncertainties onto those of target output quantities of interest (e.g., climate indices or ice sheet mass loss). A related goal is the developmentmore » of computationally efficient methods for producing initial conditions for an ice sheet that are close to available present-day observations and essentially free of artificial model drift, which is required in order to be useful for model projections (“initialization problem”). To be of maximum value, such optimal initial states should be accompanied by “useful” uncertainty estimates that account for the different sources of uncerainties, as well as the degree to which the optimum state is constrained by available observations. The PISCEES proposal outlined two approaches for quantifying uncertainties. The first targets the full exploration of the uncertainty in model projections with sampling-based methods and a workflow managed by DAKOTA (the main delivery vehicle for software developed under QUEST). This is feasible for low-dimensional problems, e.g., those with a handful of global parameters to be inferred. This approach can benefit from derivative/adjoint information, but it is not necessary, which is why it often referred to as “non-intrusive”. The second approach makes heavy use of derivative information from model adjoints to address quantifying uncertainty in high-dimensions (e.g., basal boundary conditions in ice sheet models). The use of local gradient, or Hessian information (i.e., second derivatives of the cost function), requires additional code development and implementation, and is thus often referred to as an “intrusive” approach. Within PISCEES, MIT has been tasked to develop methods for derivative-based UQ, the ”intrusive” approach discussed above. These methods rely on the availability of first (adjoint) and second (Hessian) derivative code, developed through intrusive methods such as algorithmic differentiation (AD). While representing a significant burden in terms of code development, derivative-baesd UQ is able to cope with very high-dimensional uncertainty spaces. That is, unlike sampling methods (all variations of Monte Carlo), calculational burden is independent of the dimension of the uncertainty space. This is a significant advantage for spatially distributed uncertainty fields, such as threedimensional initial conditions, three-dimensional parameter fields, or two-dimensional surface and basal boundary conditions. Importantly, uncertainty fields for ice sheet models generally fall into this category.« less

Solute partitioning under continuous cooling conditions as a cooling rate indicator. [in lunar rocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Onorato, P. I. K.; Hopper, R. W.; Yinnon, H.; Uhlmann, D. R.; Taylor, L. A.; Garrison, J. R.; Hunter, R.

1981-01-01

A model of solute partitioning in a finite body under conditions of continuous cooling is developed for the determination of cooling rates from concentration profile data, and applied to the partitioning of zirconium between ilmenite and ulvospinel in the Apollo 15 Elbow Crater rocks. Partitioning in a layered composite solid is described numerically in terms of concentration profiles and diffusion coefficients which are functions of time and temperature, respectively; a program based on the model can be used to calculate concentration profiles for various assumed cooling rates given the diffusion coefficients in the two phases and the equilibrium partitioning ratio over a range of temperatures. In the case of the Elbow Rock gabbros, the cooling rates are calculated from measured concentration ratios 10 microns from the interphase boundaries under the assumptions of uniform and equilibrium initial conditions at various starting temperatures. It is shown that the specimens could not have had uniform concentrations profiles at the previously suggested initial temperature of 1350 K. It is concluded that even under conditions where the initial temperature, grain sizes and solute diffusion coefficients are not well characterized, the model can be used to estimate the cooling rate of a grain assemblage to within an order of magnitude.

Health safety nets can break cycles of poverty and disease: a stochastic ecological model.

PubMed

Plucinski, Mateusz M; Ngonghala, Calistus N; Bonds, Matthew H

2011-12-07

The persistence of extreme poverty is increasingly attributed to dynamic interactions between biophysical processes and economics, though there remains a dearth of integrated theoretical frameworks that can inform policy. Here, we present a stochastic model of disease-driven poverty traps. Whereas deterministic models can result in poverty traps that can only be broken by substantial external changes to the initial conditions, in the stochastic model there is always some probability that a population will leave or enter a poverty trap. We show that a 'safety net', defined as an externally enforced minimum level of health or economic conditions, can guarantee ultimate escape from a poverty trap, even if the safety net is set within the basin of attraction of the poverty trap, and even if the safety net is only in the form of a public health measure. Whereas the deterministic model implies that small improvements in initial conditions near the poverty-trap equilibrium are futile, the stochastic model suggests that the impact of changes in the location of the safety net on the rate of development may be strongest near the poverty-trap equilibrium.

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; Beckley, Matthew; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Calov, Reinhard; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Greve, Ralf; Humbert, Angelika; Huybrechts, Philippe; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Larour, Eric; Lipscomb, William H.; Le clec'h, Sébastien; Lee, Victoria; Morlighem, Mathieu; Pattyn, Frank; Payne, Antony J.; Rodehacke, Christian; Rückamp, Martin; Saito, Fuyuki; Schlegel, Nicole; Seroussi, Helene; Shepherd, Andrew; Sun, Sainan; van de Wal, Roderik; Ziemen, Florian A.

2018-04-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

DOE PAGES

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; ...

2018-04-19

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. Here, the goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within themore » Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.« less

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. Here, the goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within themore » Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.« less

Evaluating MJO Event Initiation and Decay in the Skeleton Model using an RMM-like Index

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-25

climatology and document 35 the occurrence of primary, continuing, and terminating MJO events in the skeleton model. The 36 overall amount of MJO...solutions in a framework consistent with observations including MJO event 104 climatology and the precursor conditions associated with the initiation and...the 112 7 model along with several applications that include a comparison to the observed MJO event 113 climatology and identification of

Fitting Nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation Models with Random Effects and Unknown Initial Conditions Using the Stochastic Approximation Expectation-Maximization (SAEM) Algorithm.

PubMed

Chow, Sy-Miin; Lu, Zhaohua; Sherwood, Andrew; Zhu, Hongtu

2016-03-01

The past decade has evidenced the increased prevalence of irregularly spaced longitudinal data in social sciences. Clearly lacking, however, are modeling tools that allow researchers to fit dynamic models to irregularly spaced data, particularly data that show nonlinearity and heterogeneity in dynamical structures. We consider the issue of fitting multivariate nonlinear differential equation models with random effects and unknown initial conditions to irregularly spaced data. A stochastic approximation expectation-maximization algorithm is proposed and its performance is evaluated using a benchmark nonlinear dynamical systems model, namely, the Van der Pol oscillator equations. The empirical utility of the proposed technique is illustrated using a set of 24-h ambulatory cardiovascular data from 168 men and women. Pertinent methodological challenges and unresolved issues are discussed.

FITTING NONLINEAR ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODELS WITH RANDOM EFFECTS AND UNKNOWN INITIAL CONDITIONS USING THE STOCHASTIC APPROXIMATION EXPECTATION–MAXIMIZATION (SAEM) ALGORITHM

PubMed Central

Chow, Sy- Miin; Lu, Zhaohua; Zhu, Hongtu; Sherwood, Andrew

2014-01-01

The past decade has evidenced the increased prevalence of irregularly spaced longitudinal data in social sciences. Clearly lacking, however, are modeling tools that allow researchers to fit dynamic models to irregularly spaced data, particularly data that show nonlinearity and heterogeneity in dynamical structures. We consider the issue of fitting multivariate nonlinear differential equation models with random effects and unknown initial conditions to irregularly spaced data. A stochastic approximation expectation–maximization algorithm is proposed and its performance is evaluated using a benchmark nonlinear dynamical systems model, namely, the Van der Pol oscillator equations. The empirical utility of the proposed technique is illustrated using a set of 24-h ambulatory cardiovascular data from 168 men and women. Pertinent methodological challenges and unresolved issues are discussed. PMID:25416456

A computer model for the recombination zone of a microwave-plasma electrothermal rocket

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Filpus, John W.; Hawley, Martin C.

1987-01-01

As part of a study of the microwave-plasma electrothermal rocket, a computer model of the flow regime below the plasma has been developed. A second-order model, including axial dispersion of energy and material and boundary conditions at infinite length, was developed to partially reproduce the absence of mass-flow rate dependence that was seen in experimental temperature profiles. To solve the equations of the model, a search technique was developed to find the initial derivatives. On integrating with a trial set of initial derivatives, the values and their derivatives were checked to judge whether the values were likely to attain values outside the practical regime, and hence, the boundary conditions at infinity were likely to be violated. Results are presented and directions for further development are suggested.

The dynamic failure behavior of tungsten heavy alloys subjected to transverse loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarcza, Kenneth Robert

Tungsten heavy alloys (WHA), a category of particulate composites used in defense applications as kinetic energy penetrators, have been studied for many years. Even so, their dynamic failure behavior is not fully understood and cannot be predicted by numerical models presently in use. In this experimental investigation, a comprehensive understanding of the high-rate transverse-loading fracture behavior of WHA has been developed. Dynamic fracture events spanning a range of strain rates and loading conditions were created via mechanical testing and used to determine the influence of surface condition and microstructure on damage initiation, accumulation, and sample failure under different loading conditions. Using standard scanning electron microscopy metallographic and fractographic techniques, sample surface condition is shown to be extremely influential to the manner in which WHA fails, causing a fundamental change from externally to internally nucleated failures as surface condition is improved. Surface condition is characterized using electron microscopy and surface profilometry. Fracture surface analysis is conducted using electron microscopy, and linear elastic fracture mechanics is used to understand the influence of surface condition, specifically initial flaw size, on sample failure behavior. Loading conditions leading to failure are deduced from numerical modeling and experimental observation. The results highlight parameters and considerations critical to the understanding of dynamic WHA fracture and the development of dynamic WHA failure models.

Estimation of the potential leakage of the chemical munitions based on two hydrodynamical models implemented for the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakacki, Jaromir; Golenko, Mariya

2014-05-01

Two hydrodynamical models (Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP)) have been implemented for the Baltic Sea area that consists of locations of the dumped chemical munitions during II War World. The models have been configured based on similar data source - bathymetry, initial conditions and external forces were implemented based on identical data. The horizontal resolutions of the models are also very similar. Several simulations with different initial conditions have been done. Comparison and analysis of the bottom currents from both models have been performed. Based on it estimating of the dangerous area and critical time have been done. Also lagrangian particle tracking and passive tracer were implemented and based on these results probability of the appearing dangerous doses and its time evolution have been presented. This work has been performed in the frame of the MODUM project financially supported by NATO.

On the importance of variable soil depth and process representation in the modeling of shallow landslide initiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, S.; Burlando, P.; Anagnostopoulos, G.

2014-12-01

Sub-surface hydrology has a dominant role on the initiation of rainfall-induced landslides, since changes in the soil water potential affect soil shear strength and thus apparent cohesion. Especially on steep slopes and shallow soils, loss of shear strength can lead to failure even in unsaturated conditions. A process based model, HYDROlisthisis, characterized by high resolution in space and, time is developed to investigate the interactions between surface and subsurface hydrology and shallow landslide initiation. Specifically, 3D variably saturated flow conditions, including soil hydraulic hysteresis and preferential flow, are simulated for the subsurface flow, coupled with a surface runoff routine. Evapotranspiration and specific root water uptake are taken into account for continuous simulations of soil water content during storm and inter-storm periods. The geotechnical component of the model is based on a multidimensional limit equilibrium analysis, which takes into account the basic principles of unsaturated soil mechanics. The model is applied to a small catchment in Switzerland historically prone to rainfall-triggered landslides. A series of numerical simulations were carried out with various boundary conditions (soil depths) and using hydrological and geotechnical components of different complexity. Specifically, the sensitivity to the inclusion of preferential flow and soil hydraulic hysteresis was tested together with the replacement of the infinite slope assumption with a multi-dimensional limit equilibrium analysis. The effect of the different model components on model performance was assessed using accuracy statistics and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The results show that boundary conditions play a crucial role in the model performance and that the introduced hydrological (preferential flow and soil hydraulic hysteresis) and geotechnical components (multidimensional limit equilibrium analysis) considerably improve predictive capabilities in the presented case study.

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, V.

1983-01-01

The Hot Section Technology (HOST) program, creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic), is reviewed. The program is aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results include: (1) cast B1900 and wrought IN 718 selected as the base and alternative materials respectively; (2) fatigue test specimens indicated that measurable surface cracks appear early in the specimen lives, i.e., 15% of total life at 871 C and 50% of life at 538 c; (3) observed crack initiation sites are all surface initiated and are associated with either grain boundary carbides or local porosity, transgrannular cracking is observed at the initiation site for all conditions tested; and (4) an initial evaluation of two life prediction models, representative of macroscopic (Coffin-Mason) and more microscopic (damage rate) approaches, was conducted using limited data generated at 871 C and 538 C. It is found that the microscopic approach provides a more accurate regression of the data used to determine crack initiation model constants, but overpredicts the effect of strain rate on crack initiation life for the conditions tested.

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Influence of initial stress on the vibration of double-piezoelectric-nanoplate systems with various boundary conditions using DQM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asemi, S. R.; Farajpour, A.; Asemi, H. R.; Mohammadi, M.

2014-09-01

In this paper, a nonlocal continuum plate model is developed for the transverse vibration of double-piezoelectric-nanoplate systems (DPNPSs) with initial stress under an external electric voltage. The Pasternak foundation model is employed to take into account the effect of shearing between the two piezoelectric nanoplates in combination with normal behavior of coupling elastic medium. Size effects are taken into consideration using nonlocal continuum mechanics. Hamilton's principle is used to derive the differential equations of motion. The governing equations are solved for various boundary conditions by using the differential quadrature method (DQM). In addition, exact solutions are presented for the natural frequencies and critical electric voltages of DPNPS under biaxial prestressed conditions in in-phase and out-of-phase vibrational modes. It is shown that the natural frequencies of the DPNPS are quite sensitive to both nonlocal parameter and initial stress. The effects of in-plane preload and small scale are very important in the resonance mode of smart nanostructures using piezoelectric nanoplates.

Anticipatory Postural Control of Stability during Gait Initiation Over Obstacles of Different Height and Distance Made Under Reaction-Time and Self-Initiated Instructions.

PubMed

Yiou, Eric; Artico, Romain; Teyssedre, Claudine A; Labaune, Ombeline; Fourcade, Paul

2016-01-01

Despite the abundant literature on obstacle crossing in humans, the question of how the central nervous system (CNS) controls postural stability during gait initiation with the goal to clear an obstacle remains unclear. Stabilizing features of gait initiation include anticipatory postural adjustments (APAs) and lateral swing foot placement. To answer the above question, 14 participants initiated gait as fast as possible in three conditions of obstacle height, three conditions of obstacle distance and one obstacle-free (control) condition. Each of these conditions was performed with two levels of temporal pressure: reaction-time (high-pressure) and self-initiated (low-pressure) movements. A mechanical model of the body falling laterally under the influence of gravity and submitted to an elastic restoring force is proposed to assess the effect of initial (foot-off) center-of-mass position and velocity (or "initial center-of-mass set") on the stability at foot-contact. Results showed that the anticipatory peak of mediolateral (ML) center-of-pressure shift, the initial ML center-of-mass velocity and the duration of the swing phase, of gait initiation increased with obstacle height, but not with obstacle distance. These results suggest that ML APAs are scaled with swing duration in order to maintain an equivalent stability across experimental conditions. This statement is strengthened by the results obtained with the mechanical model, which showed how stability would be degraded if there was no adaptation of the initial center-of-mass set to swing duration. The anteroposterior (AP) component of APAs varied also according to obstacle height and distance, but in an opposite way to the ML component. Indeed, results showed that the anticipatory peak of backward center-of-pressure shift and the initial forward center-of-mass set decreased with obstacle height, probably in order to limit the risk to trip over the obstacle, while the forward center-of-mass velocity at foot-off increased with obstacle distance, allowing a further step to be taken. These effects of obstacle height and distance were globally similar under low and high-temporal pressure. Collectively, these findings imply that the CNS is able to predict the potential instability elicited by the obstacle clearance and that it scales the spatiotemporal parameters of APAs accordingly.

Anticipatory Postural Control of Stability during Gait Initiation Over Obstacles of Different Height and Distance Made Under Reaction-Time and Self-Initiated Instructions

PubMed Central

Yiou, Eric; Artico, Romain; Teyssedre, Claudine A.; Labaune, Ombeline; Fourcade, Paul

2016-01-01

Despite the abundant literature on obstacle crossing in humans, the question of how the central nervous system (CNS) controls postural stability during gait initiation with the goal to clear an obstacle remains unclear. Stabilizing features of gait initiation include anticipatory postural adjustments (APAs) and lateral swing foot placement. To answer the above question, 14 participants initiated gait as fast as possible in three conditions of obstacle height, three conditions of obstacle distance and one obstacle-free (control) condition. Each of these conditions was performed with two levels of temporal pressure: reaction-time (high-pressure) and self-initiated (low-pressure) movements. A mechanical model of the body falling laterally under the influence of gravity and submitted to an elastic restoring force is proposed to assess the effect of initial (foot-off) center-of-mass position and velocity (or “initial center-of-mass set”) on the stability at foot-contact. Results showed that the anticipatory peak of mediolateral (ML) center-of-pressure shift, the initial ML center-of-mass velocity and the duration of the swing phase, of gait initiation increased with obstacle height, but not with obstacle distance. These results suggest that ML APAs are scaled with swing duration in order to maintain an equivalent stability across experimental conditions. This statement is strengthened by the results obtained with the mechanical model, which showed how stability would be degraded if there was no adaptation of the initial center-of-mass set to swing duration. The anteroposterior (AP) component of APAs varied also according to obstacle height and distance, but in an opposite way to the ML component. Indeed, results showed that the anticipatory peak of backward center-of-pressure shift and the initial forward center-of-mass set decreased with obstacle height, probably in order to limit the risk to trip over the obstacle, while the forward center-of-mass velocity at foot-off increased with obstacle distance, allowing a further step to be taken. These effects of obstacle height and distance were globally similar under low and high-temporal pressure. Collectively, these findings imply that the CNS is able to predict the potential instability elicited by the obstacle clearance and that it scales the spatiotemporal parameters of APAs accordingly. PMID:27656138

Determination of remodeling parameters for a strain-adaptive finite element model of the distal ulna.

PubMed

Neuert, Mark A C; Dunning, Cynthia E

2013-09-01

Strain energy-based adaptive material models are used to predict bone resorption resulting from stress shielding induced by prosthetic joint implants. Generally, such models are governed by two key parameters: a homeostatic strain-energy state (K) and a threshold deviation from this state required to initiate bone reformation (s). A refinement procedure has been performed to estimate these parameters in the femur and glenoid; this study investigates the specific influences of these parameters on resulting density distributions in the distal ulna. A finite element model of a human ulna was created using micro-computed tomography (µCT) data, initialized to a homogeneous density distribution, and subjected to approximate in vivo loading. Values for K and s were tested, and the resulting steady-state density distribution compared with values derived from µCT images. The sensitivity of these parameters to initial conditions was examined by altering the initial homogeneous density value. The refined model parameters selected were then applied to six additional human ulnae to determine their performance across individuals. Model accuracy using the refined parameters was found to be comparable with that found in previous studies of the glenoid and femur, and gross bone structures, such as the cortical shell and medullary canal, were reproduced. The model was found to be insensitive to initial conditions; however, a fair degree of variation was observed between the six specimens. This work represents an important contribution to the study of changes in load transfer in the distal ulna following the implementation of commercial orthopedic implants.

Traps and transformations influencing the financial viability of tourism on private-land conservation areas.

PubMed

Clements, Hayley S; Cumming, Graeme S

2018-04-01

The ability of private conservation organizations to remain financially viable is a key factor influencing their effectiveness. One-third of financially motivated private-land conservation areas (PLCAs) surveyed in South Africa are unprofitable, raising questions about landowners' abilities to effectively adapt their business models to the socioeconomic environment. In any complex system, options for later adaptation can be constrained by starting conditions (path dependence). We tested 3 hypothesized drivers of path dependence in PLCA ecotourism and hunting business models: (H1) the initial size of a PLCA limits the number of mammalian game and thereby predators that can be sustained; (H2) initial investments in infrastructure limit the ability to introduce predators; and (H3) rainfall limits game and predator abundance. We further assessed how managing for financial stability (optimized game stocking) or ecological sustainability (allowing game to fluctuate with environmental conditions) influenced the ability to overcome path dependence. A mechanistic PLCA model based on simple ecological and financial rules was run for different initial conditions and management strategies, simulating landowner options for adapting their business model annually. Despite attempts by simulated landowners to increase profits, adopted business models after 13 years were differentiated by initial land and infrastructural assets, supporting H1 and H2. A conservation organization's initial assets can cause it to become locked into a financially vulnerable business model. In our 50-year simulation, path dependence was overcome by fewer of the landowners who facilitated natural ecological variability than those who maintained constant hunting rates and predator numbers, but the latter experienced unsustainably high game densities in low rainfall years. Management for natural variability supported long-term ecological sustainability but not shorter term socioeconomic sustainability for PLCAs. Our findings highlight trade-offs between ecological and economic sustainability and suggest a role for governmental support of the private conservation industry. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Oceanic ensemble forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico: An application to the case of the Deep Water Horizon oil spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khade, Vikram; Kurian, Jaison; Chang, Ping; Szunyogh, Istvan; Thyng, Kristen; Montuoro, Raffaele

2017-05-01

This paper demonstrates the potential of ocean ensemble forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). The Bred Vector (BV) technique with one week rescaling frequency is implemented on a 9 km resolution version of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). Numerical experiments are carried out by using the HYCOM analysis products to define the initial conditions and the lateral boundary conditions. The growth rates of the forecast uncertainty are estimated to be about 10% of initial amplitude per week. By carrying out ensemble forecast experiments with and without perturbed surface forcing, it is demonstrated that in the coastal regions accounting for uncertainties in the atmospheric forcing is more important than accounting for uncertainties in the ocean initial conditions. In the Loop Current region, the initial condition uncertainties, are the dominant source of the forecast uncertainty. The root-mean-square error of the Lagrangian track forecasts at the 15-day forecast lead time can be reduced by about 10 - 50 km using the ensemble mean Eulerian forecast of the oceanic flow for the computation of the tracks, instead of the single-initial-condition Eulerian forecast.

An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2016-05-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

Assimilation and High Resolution Forecasts of Surface and Near Surface Conditions for the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernier, Natacha B.; Bélair, Stéphane; Bilodeau, Bernard; Tong, Linying

2014-01-01

A dynamical model was experimentally implemented to provide high resolution forecasts at points of interests in the 2010 Vancouver Olympics and Paralympics Region. In a first experiment, GEM-Surf, the near surface and land surface modeling system, is driven by operational atmospheric forecasts and used to refine the surface forecasts according to local surface conditions such as elevation and vegetation type. In this simple form, temperature and snow depth forecasts are improved mainly as a result of the better representation of real elevation. In a second experiment, screen level observations and operational atmospheric forecasts are blended to drive a continuous cycle of near surface and land surface hindcasts. Hindcasts of the previous day conditions are then regarded as today's optimized initial conditions. Hence, in this experiment, given observations are available, observation driven hindcasts continuously ensure that daily forecasts are issued from improved initial conditions. GEM-Surf forecasts obtained from improved short-range hindcasts produced using these better conditions result in improved snow depth forecasts. In a third experiment, assimilation of snow depth data is applied to further optimize GEM-Surf's initial conditions, in addition to the use of blended observations and forecasts for forcing. Results show that snow depth and summer temperature forecasts are further improved by the addition of snow depth data assimilation.

Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1997-01-01

The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

PEM-West trajectory climatology and photochemical model sensitivity study prepared using retrospective meteorological data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merrill, John T.; Rodriguez, Jose M.

1991-01-01

Trajectory and photochemical model calculations based on retrospective meteorological data for the operations areas of the NASA Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM)-West mission are summarized. The trajectory climatology discussed here is intended to provide guidance for flight planning and initial data interpretation during the field phase of the expedition by indicating the most probable path air parcels are likely to take to reach various points in the area. The photochemical model calculations which are discussed indicate the sensitivity of the chemical environment to various initial chemical concentrations and to conditions along the trajectory. In the post-expedition analysis these calculations will be used to provide a climatological context for the meteorological conditions which are encountered in the field.

On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface-hydrology models in cold regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Gamazo, Pablo; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard S.

2018-06-01

Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs) that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme), as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology) modelling system, to (1) characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2) assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3) develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to adequately represent the temperature dynamics. We further show that our proposed initialization procedure is effective and robust to uncertainty in paleo-climate reconstructions and that more than 300 years of reconstructed climate time series are needed for proper model initialization.

A theory of stationarity and asymptotic approach in dissipative systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubel, Michael Thomas

2007-05-01

The approximate dynamics of many physical phenomena, including turbulence, can be represented by dissipative systems of ordinary differential equations. One often turns to numerical integration to solve them. There is an incompatibility, however, between the answers it can produce (i.e., specific solution trajectories) and the questions one might wish to ask (e.g., what behavior would be typical in the laboratory?) To determine its outcome, numerical integration requires more detailed initial conditions than a laboratory could normally provide. In place of initial conditions, experiments stipulate how tests should be carried out: only under statistically stationary conditions, for example, or only during asymptotic approach to a final state. Stipulations such as these, rather than initial conditions, are what determine outcomes in the laboratory.This theoretical study examines whether the points of view can be reconciled: What is the relationship between one's statistical stipulations for how an experiment should be carried out--stationarity or asymptotic approach--and the expected results? How might those results be determined without invoking initial conditions explicitly?To answer these questions, stationarity and asymptotic approach conditions are analyzed in detail. Each condition is treated as a statistical constraint on the system--a restriction on the probability density of states that might be occupied when measurements take place. For stationarity, this reasoning leads to a singular, invariant probability density which is already familiar from dynamical systems theory. For asymptotic approach, it leads to a new, more regular probability density field. A conjecture regarding what appears to be a limit relationship between the two densities is presented.By making use of the new probability densities, one can derive output statistics directly, avoiding the need to create or manipulate initial data, and thereby avoiding the conceptual incompatibility mentioned above. This approach also provides a clean way to derive reduced-order models, complete with local and global error estimates, as well as a way to compare existing reduced-order models objectively.The new approach is explored in the context of five separate test problems: a trivial one-dimensional linear system, a damped unforced linear oscillator in two dimensions, the isothermal Rayleigh-Plesset equation, Lorenz's equations, and the Stokes limit of Burgers' equation in one space dimension. In each case, various output statistics are deduced without recourse to initial conditions. Further, reduced-order models are constructed for asymptotic approach of the damped unforced linear oscillator, the isothermal Rayleigh-Plesset system, and Lorenz's equations, and for stationarity of Lorenz's equations.

Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Abumeri, Galib H.

2008-01-01

The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the launch external tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points, the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation the data used was obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated.

Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Abumeri, Galib H.

2008-01-01

The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the launch external tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation, the data used was obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated.

Comparisons of stuttering frequency during and after speech initiation in unaltered feedback, altered auditory feedback and choral speech conditions.

PubMed

Saltuklaroglu, Tim; Kalinowski, Joseph; Robbins, Mary; Crawcour, Stephen; Bowers, Andrew

2009-01-01

Stuttering is prone to strike during speech initiation more so than at any other point in an utterance. The use of auditory feedback (AAF) has been found to produce robust decreases in the stuttering frequency by creating an electronic rendition of choral speech (i.e., speaking in unison). However, AAF requires users to self-initiate speech before it can go into effect and, therefore, it might not be as helpful as true choral speech during speech initiation. To examine how AAF and choral speech differentially enhance fluency during speech initiation and in subsequent portions of utterances. Ten participants who stuttered read passages without altered feedback (NAF), under four AAF conditions and under a true choral speech condition. Each condition was blocked into ten 10 s trials separated by 5 s intervals so each trial required 'cold' speech initiation. In the first analysis, comparisons of stuttering frequencies were made across conditions. A second, finer grain analysis involved examining stuttering frequencies on the initial syllable, the subsequent four syllables produced and the five syllables produced immediately after the midpoint of each trial. On average, AAF reduced stuttering by approximately 68% relative to the NAF condition. Stuttering frequencies on the initial syllables were considerably higher than on the other syllables analysed (0.45 and 0.34 for NAF and AAF conditions, respectively). After the first syllable was produced, stuttering frequencies dropped precipitously and remained stable. However, this drop in stuttering frequency was significantly greater (approximately 84%) in the AAF conditions than in the NAF condition (approximately 66%) with frequencies on the last nine syllables analysed averaging 0.15 and 0.05 for NAF and AAF conditions, respectively. In the true choral speech condition, stuttering was virtually (approximately 98%) eliminated across all utterances and all syllable positions. Altered auditory feedback effectively inhibits stuttering immediately after speech has been initiated. However, unlike a true choral signal, which is exogenously initiated and offers the most complete fluency enhancement, AAF requires speech to be initiated by the user and 'fed back' before it can directly inhibit stuttering. It is suggested that AAF can be a viable clinical option for those who stutter and should often be used in combination with therapeutic techniques, particularly those that aid speech initiation. The substantially higher rate of stuttering occurring on initiation supports a hypothesis that overt stuttering events help 'release' and 'inhibit' central stuttering blocks. This perspective is examined in the context of internal models and mirror neurons.

--No Title--

Science.gov Websites

will be useful, for example, in providing initial and/or lateral boundary conditions for regional reforecasts with various limited-area models. To access a subset of model output, for example a small number

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and its Impact on Northern Hemisphere Weather Predictability during Wintertime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Charles; Waliser, Duane E.; Lau, K. M.; Stern, W.

2003-01-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known as the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability and has an important role in the coupled-atmosphere system. This study used twin numerical model experiments to investigate the influence of the MJO activity on weather predictability in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard laboratory for the Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model was first used in a 10-yr simulation with fixed climatological SSTs to generate a validation data set as well as to select initial conditions for active MJO periods and Null cases. Two perturbation numerical experiments were performed for the 75 cases selected [(4 MJO phases + Null phase) _ 15 initial conditions in each]. For each alternative initial condition, the model was integrated for 90 days. Mean anomaly correlations in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (2O deg N_60 deg.N) and standardized root-mean-square errors were computed to validate forecasts and control run. The analyses of 500-hPa geopotential height, 200-hPa Streamfunction and 850-hPa zonal wind component systematically show larger predictability during periods of active MJO as opposed to quiescent episodes of the oscillation.

Flow processes on the catchment scale - modeling of initial structural states and hydrological behavior in an artificial exemplary catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, Thomas; Caviedes-Voullième, Daniel; Hinz, Christoph; Gerke, Horst H.

2017-04-01

Landscapes that are heavily disturbed or newly formed by either natural processes or human activity are in a state of disequilibrium. Their initial development is thus characterized by highly dynamic processes under all climatic conditions. The primary distribution and structure of the solid phase (i.e. mineral particles forming the pore space) is one of the decisive factors for the development of hydrological behavior of the eco-hydrological system and therefore (co-) determining for its - more or less - stable final state. The artificially constructed ‚Hühnerwasser' catchment (a 6 ha area located in the open-cast lignite mine Welzow-Süd, southern Brandenburg, Germany) is a landscape laboratory where the initial eco-hydrological development is observed since 2005. The specific formation (or construction) processes generated characteristic sediment structures and distributions, resulting in a spatially heterogeneous initial state of the catchment. We developed a structure generator that simulates the characteristic distribution of the solid phase for such constructed landscapes. The program is able to generate quasi-realistic structures and sediment compositions on multiple spatial levels (1 cm up to 100 m scale). The generated structures can be i) conditioned to actual measurement values (e.g., soil texture and bulk distribution); ii) stochastically generated, and iii) calculated deterministically according to the geology and technical processes at the excavation site. Results are visualized using the GOCAD software package and the free software Paraview. Based on the 3D-spatial sediment distributions, effective hydraulic van-Genuchten parameters are calculated using pedotransfer functions. The hydraulic behavior of different sediment distribution (i.e. versions or variations of the catchment's porous body) is calculated using a numerical model developed by one of us (Caviedes-Voullième). Observation data are available from catchment monitoring are available for i) determining the boundary conditions (e.g., precipitation), and ii) the calibration / validation of the model (catchment discharge, ground water). The analysis of multiple sediment distribution scenarios should allow to approximately determine the influx of starting conditions on initial development of hydrological behavior. We present first flow modeling results for a reference (conditioned) catchment model and variations thereof. We will also give an outlook on further methodical development of our approach.

Used Nuclear Fuel Loading and Structural Performance Under Normal Conditions of Transport- Demonstration of Approach and Results on Used Fuel Performance Characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adkins, Harold; Geelhood, Ken; Koeppel, Brian

2013-09-30

This document addresses Oak Ridge National Laboratory milestone M2FT-13OR0822015 Demonstration of Approach and Results on Used Nuclear Fuel Performance Characterization. This report provides results of the initial demonstration of the modeling capability developed to perform preliminary deterministic evaluations of moderate-to-high burnup used nuclear fuel (UNF) mechanical performance under normal conditions of storage (NCS) and normal conditions of transport (NCT) conditions. This report also provides results from the sensitivity studies that have been performed. Finally, discussion on the long-term goals and objectives of this initiative are provided.

Seasonal Predictions with the GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Chang, Yehui; Suarez, Max

1999-01-01

A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed Surface Sea Temperature (SST) anomalies during boreal winter. The prediction experiments consist of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions for each year of the 15 year period 1981-95, employing version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric Global Circulation Models (GCM). The initial conditions are obtained from the NASA GEOS-1 reanalysis data. Comparisons with a companion set of six long-term simulations with observed SST (starting in 1978, so they have no memory of the initial conditions for the periods of interest) are used to assess the relative contributions of the initial conditions and SST anomalies to forecast skill ranging from daily to seasonal time scales. The ensembles are used to isolate the signal, and to assess the nature of the inherent variability (noise) of the forecasts.

Trends and uncertainties in budburst projections of Norway spruce in Northern Europe.

PubMed

Olsson, Cecilia; Olin, Stefan; Lindström, Johan; Jönsson, Anna Maria

2017-12-01

Budburst is regulated by temperature conditions, and a warming climate is associated with earlier budburst. A range of phenology models has been developed to assess climate change effects, and they tend to produce different results. This is mainly caused by different model representations of tree physiology processes, selection of observational data for model parameterization, and selection of climate model data to generate future projections. In this study, we applied (i) Bayesian inference to estimate model parameter values to address uncertainties associated with selection of observational data, (ii) selection of climate model data representative of a larger dataset, and (iii) ensembles modeling over multiple initial conditions, model classes, model parameterizations, and boundary conditions to generate future projections and uncertainty estimates. The ensemble projection indicated that the budburst of Norway spruce in northern Europe will on average take place 10.2 ± 3.7 days earlier in 2051-2080 than in 1971-2000, given climate conditions corresponding to RCP 8.5. Three provenances were assessed separately (one early and two late), and the projections indicated that the relationship among provenance will remain also in a warmer climate. Structurally complex models were more likely to fail predicting budburst for some combinations of site and year than simple models. However, they contributed to the overall picture of current understanding of climate impacts on tree phenology by capturing additional aspects of temperature response, for example, chilling. Model parameterizations based on single sites were more likely to result in model failure than parameterizations based on multiple sites, highlighting that the model parameterization is sensitive to initial conditions and may not perform well under other climate conditions, whether the change is due to a shift in space or over time. By addressing a range of uncertainties, this study showed that ensemble modeling provides a more robust impact assessment than would a single phenology model run.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daleu, C. L.; Plant, R. S.; Woolnough, S. J.

Here, as part of an international intercomparison project, a set of single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are run under the weak-temperature gradient (WTG) method and the damped gravity wave (DGW) method. For each model, the implementation of the WTG or DGW method involves a simulated column which is coupled to a reference state defined with profiles obtained from the same model in radiative-convective equilibrium. The simulated column has the same surface conditions as the reference state and is initialized with profiles from the reference state. We performed systematic comparison of the behavior of different models under a consistentmore » implementation of the WTG method and the DGW method and systematic comparison of the WTG and DGW methods in models with different physics and numerics. CRMs and SCMs produce a variety of behaviors under both WTG and DGW methods. Some of the models reproduce the reference state while others sustain a large-scale circulation which results in either substantially lower or higher precipitation compared to the value of the reference state. CRMs show a fairly linear relationship between precipitation and circulation strength. SCMs display a wider range of behaviors than CRMs. Some SCMs under the WTG method produce zero precipitation. Within an individual SCM, a DGW simulation and a corresponding WTG simulation can produce different signed circulation. When initialized with a dry troposphere, DGW simulations always result in a precipitating equilibrium state. The greatest sensitivities to the initial moisture conditions occur for multiple stable equilibria in some WTG simulations, corresponding to either a dry equilibrium state when initialized as dry or a precipitating equilibrium state when initialized as moist. Multiple equilibria are seen in more WTG simulations for higher SST. In some models, the existence of multiple equilibria is sensitive to some parameters in the WTG calculations.« less

Universal block diagram based modeling and simulation schemes for fractional-order control systems.

PubMed

Bai, Lu; Xue, Dingyü

2017-05-08

Universal block diagram based schemes are proposed for modeling and simulating the fractional-order control systems in this paper. A fractional operator block in Simulink is designed to evaluate the fractional-order derivative and integral. Based on the block, the fractional-order control systems with zero initial conditions can be modeled conveniently. For modeling the system with nonzero initial conditions, the auxiliary signal is constructed in the compensation scheme. Since the compensation scheme is very complicated, therefore the integrator chain scheme is further proposed to simplify the modeling procedures. The accuracy and effectiveness of the schemes are assessed in the examples, the computation results testify the block diagram scheme is efficient for all Caputo fractional-order ordinary differential equations (FODEs) of any complexity, including the implicit Caputo FODEs. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global analysis of seasonal streamflow predictability using an ensemble prediction system and observations from 6192 small catchments worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Peña-Arancibia, Jorge L.; Wood, Eric F.; Sheffield, Justin; Beck, Hylke E.

2013-05-01

Ideally, a seasonal streamflow forecasting system would ingest skilful climate forecasts and propagate these through calibrated hydrological models initialized with observed catchment conditions. At global scale, practical problems exist in each of these aspects. For the first time, we analyzed theoretical and actual skill in bimonthly streamflow forecasts from a global ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) system. Forecasts were generated six times per year for 1979-2008 by an initialized hydrological model and an ensemble of 1° resolution daily climate estimates for the preceding 30 years. A post-ESP conditional sampling method was applied to 2.6% of forecasts, based on predictive relationships between precipitation and 1 of 21 climate indices prior to the forecast date. Theoretical skill was assessed against a reference run with historic forcing. Actual skill was assessed against streamflow records for 6192 small (<10,000 km2) catchments worldwide. The results show that initial catchment conditions provide the main source of skill. Post-ESP sampling enhanced skill in equatorial South America and Southeast Asia, particularly in terms of tercile probability skill, due to the persistence and influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Actual skill was on average 54% of theoretical skill but considerably more for selected regions and times of year. The realized fraction of the theoretical skill probably depended primarily on the quality of precipitation estimates. Forecast skill could be predicted as the product of theoretical skill and historic model performance. Increases in seasonal forecast skill are likely to require improvement in the observation of precipitation and initial hydrological conditions.

Conditional flood frequency and catchment state: a simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brettschneider, Marco; Bourgin, François; Merz, Bruno; Andreassian, Vazken; Blaquiere, Simon

2017-04-01

Catchments have memory and the conditional flood frequency distribution for a time period ahead can be seen as non-stationary: it varies with the catchment state and climatic factors. From a risk management perspective, understanding the link of conditional flood frequency to catchment state is a key to anticipate potential periods of higher flood risk. Here, we adopt a simulation approach to explore the link between flood frequency obtained by continuous rainfall-runoff simulation and the initial state of the catchment. The simulation chain is based on i) a three state rainfall generator applied at the catchment scale, whose parameters are estimated for each month, and ii) the GR4J lumped rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters are calibrated with all available data. For each month, a large number of stochastic realizations of the continuous rainfall generator for the next 12 months are used as inputs for the GR4J model in order to obtain a large number of stochastic realizations for the next 12 months. This process is then repeated for 50 different initial states of the soil moisture reservoir of the GR4J model and for all the catchments. Thus, 50 different conditional flood frequency curves are obtained for the 50 different initial catchment states. We will present an analysis of the link between the catchment states, the period of the year and the strength of the conditioning of the flood frequency compared to the unconditional flood frequency. A large sample of diverse catchments in France will be used.

Theory of the decision/problem state

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dieterly, D. L.

1980-01-01

A theory of the decision-problem state was introduced and elaborated. Starting with the basic model of a decision-problem condition, an attempt was made to explain how a major decision-problem may consist of subsets of decision-problem conditions composing different condition sequences. In addition, the basic classical decision-tree model was modified to allow for the introduction of a series of characteristics that may be encountered in an analysis of a decision-problem state. The resulting hierarchical model reflects the unique attributes of the decision-problem state. The basic model of a decision-problem condition was used as a base to evolve a more complex model that is more representative of the decision-problem state and may be used to initiate research on decision-problem states.

Tests and applications of nonlinear force-free field extrapolations in spherical geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Y.; Ding, M. D.

2013-07-01

We test a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) optimization code in spherical geometry with an analytical solution from Low and Lou. The potential field source surface (PFSS) model is served as the initial and boundary conditions where observed data are not available. The analytical solution can be well recovered if the boundary and initial conditions are properly handled. Next, we discuss the preprocessing procedure for the noisy bottom boundary data, and find that preprocessing is necessary for NLFFF extrapolations when we use the observed photospheric magnetic field as bottom boundaries. Finally, we apply the NLFFF model to a solar area where four active regions interacting with each other. An M8.7 flare occurred in one active region. NLFFF modeling in spherical geometry simultaneously constructs the small and large scale magnetic field configurations better than the PFSS model does.

Contribution of highway capital to industry and national productivity growth

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1973-10-01

The report contains the authors initial efforts aimed at extending the steady state freeway model for optimizing freeway traffic flow to a non-steady state model. The steady-state model does not allow reaction to continuously changing conditions whic...

Space shuttle SRM plume expansion sensitivity analysis. [flow characteristics of exhaust gases from solid propellant rocket engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, S. D.; Tevepaugh, J. A.; Penny, M. M.

1975-01-01

The exhaust plumes of the space shuttle solid rocket motors can have a significant effect on the base pressure and base drag of the shuttle vehicle. A parametric analysis was conducted to assess the sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle of analytical solid rocket motor flow fields to various analytical input parameters and operating conditions. The results of the analysis are presented and conclusions reached regarding the sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle to each parameter investigated. Operating conditions parametrically varied were chamber pressure, nozzle inlet angle, nozzle throat radius of curvature ratio and propellant particle loading. Empirical particle parameters investigated were mean size, local drag coefficient and local heat transfer coefficient. Sensitivity of the initial plume expansion angle to gas thermochemistry model and local drag coefficient model assumptions were determined.

What is needed to make low-density lipoprotein transport in human aorta computational models suitable to explore links to atherosclerosis? Impact of initial and inflow boundary conditions.

PubMed

De Nisco, Giuseppe; Zhang, Peng; Calò, Karol; Liu, Xiao; Ponzini, Raffaele; Bignardi, Cristina; Rizzo, Giovanna; Deng, Xiaoyan; Gallo, Diego; Morbiducci, Umberto

2018-02-08

Personalized computational hemodynamics (CH) is a promising tool to clarify/predict the link between low density lipoproteins (LDL) transport in aorta, disturbed shear and atherogenesis. However, CH uses simplifying assumptions that represent sources of uncertainty. In particular, modelling blood-side to wall LDL transfer is challenged by the cumbersomeness of protocols needed to obtain reliable LDL concentration profile estimations. This paucity of data is limiting the establishment of rigorous CH protocols able to balance the trade-offs among the variety of in vivo data to be acquired, and the accuracy required by biological/clinical applications. In this study, we analyze the impact of LDL concentration initialization (initial conditions, ICs) and inflow boundary conditions (BCs) on CH models of LDL blood-to-wall transfer in aorta. Technically, in an image-based model of human aorta, two different inflow BCs are generated imposing subject-specific inflow 3D PC-MRI measured or idealized (flat) velocity profiles. For each simulated BC, four different ICs for LDL concentration are applied, imposing as IC the LDL distribution resulting from steady-state simulations with average conditions, or constant LDL concentration values. Based on CH results, we conclude that: (1) the imposition of realistic 3D velocity profiles as inflow BC reduces the uncertainty affecting the representation of LDL transfer; (2) different LDL concentration ICs lead to markedly different patterns of LDL transfer. Given that it is not possible to verify in vivo the proper LDL concentration initialization to be applied, we suggest to carefully set and unambiguously declare the imposed BCs and LDL concentration IC when modelling LDL transfer in aorta, in order to obtain reproducible and ultimately comparable results among different laboratories. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamical initial-state model for relativistic heavy-ion collisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Chun; Schenke, Bjorn

We present a fully three-dimensional model providing initial conditions for energy and net-baryon density distributions in heavy ion collisions at arbitrary collision energy. The model includes the dynamical deceleration of participating nucleons or valence quarks, depending on the implementation. The duration of the deceleration continues until the string spanned between colliding participants is assumed to thermalize, which is either after a fixed proper time, or a uctuating time depending on sampled final rapidities. Energy is deposited in space-time along the string, which in general will span a range of space-time rapidities and proper times. We study various observables obtained directlymore » from the initial state model, including net-baryon rapidity distributions, 2-particle rapidity correlations, as well as the rapidity decorrelation of the transverse geometry. Their dependence on the model implementation and parameter values is investigated. Here, we also present the implementation of the model with 3+1 dimensional hydrodynamics, which involves the addition of source terms that deposit energy and net-baryon densities produced by the initial state model at proper times greater than the initial time for the hydrodynamic simulation.« less

Dynamical initial-state model for relativistic heavy-ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Chun; Schenke, Björn

2018-02-01

We present a fully three-dimensional model providing initial conditions for energy and net-baryon density distributions in heavy-ion collisions at arbitrary collision energy. The model includes the dynamical deceleration of participating nucleons or valence quarks, depending on the implementation. The duration of the deceleration continues until the string spanned between colliding participants is assumed to thermalize, which is either after a fixed proper time, or a fluctuating time depending on sampled final rapidities. Energy is deposited in space time along the string, which in general will span a range of space-time rapidities and proper times. We study various observables obtained directly from the initial-state model, including net-baryon rapidity distributions, two-particle rapidity correlations, as well as the rapidity decorrelation of the transverse geometry. Their dependence on the model implementation and parameter values is investigated. We also present the implementation of the model with 3+1-dimensional hydrodynamics, which involves the addition of source terms that deposit energy and net-baryon densities produced by the initial-state model at proper times greater than the initial time for the hydrodynamic simulation.

Dynamical initial-state model for relativistic heavy-ion collisions

DOE PAGES

Shen, Chun; Schenke, Bjorn

2018-02-15

We present a fully three-dimensional model providing initial conditions for energy and net-baryon density distributions in heavy ion collisions at arbitrary collision energy. The model includes the dynamical deceleration of participating nucleons or valence quarks, depending on the implementation. The duration of the deceleration continues until the string spanned between colliding participants is assumed to thermalize, which is either after a fixed proper time, or a uctuating time depending on sampled final rapidities. Energy is deposited in space-time along the string, which in general will span a range of space-time rapidities and proper times. We study various observables obtained directlymore » from the initial state model, including net-baryon rapidity distributions, 2-particle rapidity correlations, as well as the rapidity decorrelation of the transverse geometry. Their dependence on the model implementation and parameter values is investigated. Here, we also present the implementation of the model with 3+1 dimensional hydrodynamics, which involves the addition of source terms that deposit energy and net-baryon densities produced by the initial state model at proper times greater than the initial time for the hydrodynamic simulation.« less

Integrated hydrologic modeling: Effects of spatial scale, discretization and initialization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seck, A.; Welty, C.; Maxwell, R. M.

2011-12-01

Groundwater discharge contributes significantly to the annual flows of Chesapeake Bay tributaries and is presumed to contribute to the observed lag time between the implementation of management actions and the environmental response in the Chesapeake Bay. To investigate groundwater fluxes and flow paths and interaction with surface flow, we have developed a fully distributed integrated hydrologic model of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using ParFlow. Here we present a comparison of model spatial resolution and initialization methods. We have studied the effect of horizontal discretization on overland flow processes at a range of scales. Three nested model domains have been considered: the Monocacy watershed (5600 sq. km), the Potomac watershed (92000 sq. km) and the Chesapeake Bay watershed (400,000 sq. km). Models with homogeneous subsurface and topographically-derived slopes were evaluated at 500-m, 1000-m, 2000-m, and 4000-m grid resolutions. Land surface slopes were derived from resampled DEMs and corrected using stream networks. Simulation results show that the overland flow processes are reasonably well represented with a resolution up to 2000 m. We observe that the effects of horizontal resolution dissipate with larger scale models. Using a homogeneous model that includes subsurface and surface terrain characteristics, we have evaluated various initialization methods for the integrated Monocacy watershed model. This model used several options for water table depths and two rainfall forcing methods including (1) a synthetic rainfall-recession cycle corresponding to the region's average annual rainfall rate, and (2) an initial shut-off of rainfall forcing followed by a rainfall-recession cycling. Results show the dominance of groundwater generated runoff during a first phase of the simulation followed by a convergence towards more balanced runoff generation mechanisms. We observe that the influence of groundwater runoff increases in dissected relief areas characterized by high slope magnitudes. This is due to the increase in initial water table gradients in these regions. As a result, in the domain conditions for this study, an initial shut-off of rainfall forcing proved to be the more efficient initialization method. The initialized model is then coupled with a Land Surface Model (CLM). Ongoing work includes coupling a heterogeneous subsurface field with spatially variable meteorological forcing using the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data products. Seasonal trends of groundwater levels for current and pre-development conditions of the basin will be compared.

A numerical strategy for modelling rotating stall in core compressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahdati, M.

2007-03-01

The paper will focus on one specific core-compressor instability, rotating stall, because of the pressing industrial need to improve current design methods. The determination of the blade response during rotating stall is a difficult problem for which there is no reliable procedure. During rotating stall, the blades encounter the stall cells and the excitation depends on the number, size, exact shape and rotational speed of these cells. The long-term aim is to minimize the forced response due to rotating stall excitation by avoiding potential matches between the vibration modes and the rotating stall pattern characteristics. Accurate numerical simulations of core-compressor rotating stall phenomena require the modelling of a large number of bladerows using grids containing several tens of millions of points. The time-accurate unsteady-flow computations may need to be run for several engine revolutions for rotating stall to get initiated and many more before it is fully developed. The difficulty in rotating stall initiation arises from a lack of representation of the triggering disturbances which are inherently present in aeroengines. Since the numerical model represents a symmetric assembly, the only random mechanism for rotating stall initiation is provided by numerical round-off errors. In this work, rotating stall is initiated by introducing a small amount of geometric mistuning to the rotor blades. Another major obstacle in modelling flows near stall is the specification of appropriate upstream and downstream boundary conditions. Obtaining reliable boundary conditions for such flows can be very difficult. In the present study, the low-pressure compression (LPC) domain is placed upstream of the core compressor. With such an approach, only far field atmospheric boundary conditions are specified which are obtained from aircraft speed and altitude. A chocked variable-area nozzle, placed after the last compressor bladerow in the model, is used to impose boundary conditions downstream. Such an approach is representative of modelling an engine.Using a 3D viscous time-accurate flow representation, the front bladerows of a core compressor were modelled in a whole-annulus fashion whereas the rest of bladerows are modelled in a single-passage fashion. The rotating stall behaviour at two different compressor operating points was studied by considering two different variable-vane scheduling conditions for which experimental data were available. Using a model with nine whole-assembly models, the unsteady-flow calculations were conducted on 32-CPUs of a parallel cluster, typical run times being around 3-4 weeks for a grid with about 60 million points. The simulations were conducted over several engine rotations. As observed on the actual development engine, there was no rotating stall for the first scheduling condition while mal-scheduling of the stator vanes created a 12-band rotating stall which excited the 1st flap mode.

Evolutionary cost analysis of valsartan initiation among patients with hypertension: a time series approach.

PubMed

Sun, Peter; Chang, Joanne; Zhang, Jie; Kahler, Kristijan H

2012-01-01

This study examines the evolutionary impact of valsartan initiation on medical costs. A retrospective time series study design was used with a large, US national commercial claims database for the period of 2004-2008. Hypertensive patients who initiated valsartan between the ages of 18 and 63, and had continuous enrollment for 24-month pre-initiation period and 24-month post-initiation period were selected. Patients' monthly medical costs were calculated based on individual claims. A novel time series model was devised with monthly medical costs as its dependent variables, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) as its stochastic components, and four indicative variables as its decomposed interventional components. The number of post-initiation months before a cost-offset point was also assessed. Patients (n = 18,269) had mean age of 53 at the initiation date, and 53% of them were female. The most common co-morbid conditions were dyslipidemia (52%), diabetes (24%), and hypertensive complications (17%). The time series model suggests that medical costs were increasing by approximately $10 per month (p < 0.01) before the initiation, and decreasing by approximately $6 per month (p < 0.01) after the initiation. After the 4th post-initiation month, medical costs for patients with the initiation were statistically significantly lower (p < 0.01) than forecasted medical costs for the same patients without the initiation. The study has its limitations in data representativeness, ability to collect unrecorded clinical conditions, treatments, and costs, as well as its generalizability to patients with different characteristics. Commercially insured hypertensive patients experienced monthly medical cost increase before valsartan initiation. Based on our model, the evolutionary impact of the initiation on medical costs included a temporary cost surge, a gradual, consistent, and statistically significant cost decrease, and a cost-offset point around the 4th post-initiation month.

Dynamics of a macroscopic model characterizing mutualism of search engines and web sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuanshi; Wu, Hong

2006-05-01

We present a model to describe the mutualism relationship between search engines and web sites. In the model, search engines and web sites benefit from each other while the search engines are derived products of the web sites and cannot survive independently. Our goal is to show strategies for the search engines to survive in the internet market. From mathematical analysis of the model, we show that mutualism does not always result in survival. We show various conditions under which the search engines would tend to extinction, persist or grow explosively. Then by the conditions, we deduce a series of strategies for the search engines to survive in the internet market. We present conditions under which the initial number of consumers of the search engines has little contribution to their persistence, which is in agreement with the results in previous works. Furthermore, we show novel conditions under which the initial value plays an important role in the persistence of the search engines and deduce new strategies. We also give suggestions for the web sites to cooperate with the search engines in order to form a win-win situation.

A boundary condition to the Khokhlov-Zabolotskaya equation for modeling strongly focused nonlinear ultrasound fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosnitskiy, P., E-mail: pavrosni@yandex.ru; Yuldashev, P., E-mail: petr@acs366.phys.msu.ru; Khokhlova, V., E-mail: vera@acs366.phys.msu.ru

2015-10-28

An equivalent source model was proposed as a boundary condition to the nonlinear parabolic Khokhlov-Zabolotskaya (KZ) equation to simulate high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) fields generated by medical ultrasound transducers with the shape of a spherical shell. The boundary condition was set in the initial plane; the aperture, the focal distance, and the initial pressure of the source were chosen based on the best match of the axial pressure amplitude and phase distributions in the Rayleigh integral analytic solution for a spherical transducer and the linear parabolic approximation solution for the equivalent source. Analytic expressions for the equivalent source parametersmore » were derived. It was shown that the proposed approach allowed us to transfer the boundary condition from the spherical surface to the plane and to achieve a very good match between the linear field solutions of the parabolic and full diffraction models even for highly focused sources with F-number less than unity. The proposed method can be further used to expand the capabilities of the KZ nonlinear parabolic equation for efficient modeling of HIFU fields generated by strongly focused sources.« less

Modifying mixing and instability growth through the adjustment of initial conditions in a high-energy-density counter-propagating shear experiment on OMEGA

DOE PAGES

Merritt, E. C.; Doss, F. W.; Loomis, E. N.; ...

2015-06-24

Counter-propagating shear experiments conducted at the OMEGA Laser Facility have been evaluating the effect of target initial conditions, specifically the characteristics of a tracer foil located at the shear boundary, on Kelvin-Helmholtz instability evolution and experiment transition toward nonlinearity and turbulence in the high-energy-density (HED) regime. Experiments are focused on both identifying and uncoupling the dependence of the model initial turbulent length scale in variable-density turbulence models of k-ϵ type on competing physical instability seed lengths as well as developing a path toward fully developed turbulent HED experiments. We present results from a series of experiments controllably and independently varyingmore » two initial types of scale lengths in the experiment: the thickness and surface roughness (surface perturbation scale spectrum) of a tracer layer at the shear interface. We show that decreasing the layer thickness and increasing the surface roughness both have the ability to increase the relative mixing in the system, and thus theoretically decrease the time required to begin transitioning to turbulence in the system. In addition, we also show that we can connect a change in observed mix width growth due to increased foil surface roughness to an analytically predicted change in model initial turbulent scale lengths.« less

Controlled release drug delivery via polymeric microspheres: a neat application of the spherical diffusion equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ormerod, C. S.; Nelson, M.

2017-11-01

Various applied mathematics undergraduate skills are demonstrated via an adaptation of Crank's axisymmetric spherical diffusion model. By the introduction of a one-parameter Heaviside initial condition, the pharmaceutically problematic initial mass flux is attenuated. Quantities germane to the pharmaceutical industry are examined and the model is tested with data derived from industry journals. A binomial algorithm for the acceleration of alternating sequences is demonstrated. The model is accompanied by a MAPLE worksheet for further student exploration.

Dynamics of atom-field entanglement for Tavis-Cummings models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashkirov, Eugene K.

2018-04-01

An exact solution of the problem of two-atom one- and two-mode Jaynes-Cummings model with intensity- dependent coupling is presented. Asymptotic solutions for system state vectors are obtained in the approximation of large initial coherent fields. The atom-field entanglement is investigated on the basis of the reduced atomic entropy dynamics. The possibility of the system being initially in a pure disentangled state to revive into this state during the evolution process for both models is shown. Conditions and times of disentanglement are derived.

Structure resonances due to space charge in periodic focusing channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chao; Jameson, R. A.

2018-02-01

The Vlasov-Poisson model is one of the most effective methods to study the space charge dominated beam evolution self-consistently in a periodic focusing channel. Since the approach to get the solution with this model is not trivial, previous studies are limited in degenerated conditions, either in smoothed channel (constant focusing) [I. Hofmann, Phys. Rev. E 57, 4713 (1998)] or in alternating gradient focusing channel with equal initial beam emittance condition in the degrees of freedom [I. Hofmann et al., Part. Accel. 13, 145 (1983); Chao Li et al., THOBA02, IPAC2016]. To establish a basis, we intentionally limit this article to the study of the pure transverse periodic focusing lattice with arbitrary initial beam condition, and the same lattice structure in both degrees of freedom, but with possibility of different focusing strengths. This will show the extension of the existing work. The full Hamiltonian is invoked for a pure transverse focusing lattice in various initial beam conditions, revealing different mode structure and additional modes beyond those of the degenerated cases. Application of the extended method to realistic lattices (including longitudinal accelerating elements) and further details will then reveal many new insights, and will be presented in later work.

An empirical model for parameters affecting energy consumption in boron removal from boron-containing wastewaters by electrocoagulation.

PubMed

Yilmaz, A Erdem; Boncukcuoğlu, Recep; Kocakerim, M Muhtar

2007-06-01

In this study, it was investigated parameters affecting energy consumption in boron removal from boron containing wastewaters prepared synthetically, via electrocoagulation method. The solution pH, initial boron concentration, dose of supporting electrolyte, current density and temperature of solution were selected as experimental parameters affecting energy consumption. The obtained experimental results showed that boron removal efficiency reached up to 99% under optimum conditions, in which solution pH was 8.0, current density 6.0 mA/cm(2), initial boron concentration 100mg/L and solution temperature 293 K. The current density was an important parameter affecting energy consumption too. High current density applied to electrocoagulation cell increased energy consumption. Increasing solution temperature caused to decrease energy consumption that high temperature decreased potential applied under constant current density. That increasing initial boron concentration and dose of supporting electrolyte caused to increase specific conductivity of solution decreased energy consumption. As a result, it was seen that energy consumption for boron removal via electrocoagulation method could be minimized at optimum conditions. An empirical model was predicted by statistically. Experimentally obtained values were fitted with values predicted from empirical model being as following; [formula in text]. Unfortunately, the conditions obtained for optimum boron removal were not the conditions obtained for minimum energy consumption. It was determined that support electrolyte must be used for increase boron removal and decrease electrical energy consumption.

Parameter estimation for a cohesive sediment transport model by assimilating satellite observations in the Hangzhou Bay: Temporal variations and spatial distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Daosheng; Zhang, Jicai; He, Xianqiang; Chu, Dongdong; Lv, Xianqing; Wang, Ya Ping; Yang, Yang; Fan, Daidu; Gao, Shu

2018-01-01

Model parameters in the suspended cohesive sediment transport models are critical for the accurate simulation of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). Difficulties in estimating the model parameters still prevent numerical modeling of the sediment transport from achieving a high level of predictability. Based on a three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model and its adjoint model, the satellite remote sensing data of SSCs during both spring tide and neap tide, retrieved from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), are assimilated to synchronously estimate four spatially and temporally varying parameters in the Hangzhou Bay in China, including settling velocity, resuspension rate, inflow open boundary conditions and initial conditions. After data assimilation, the model performance is significantly improved. Through several sensitivity experiments, the spatial and temporal variation tendencies of the estimated model parameters are verified to be robust and not affected by model settings. The pattern for the variations of the estimated parameters is analyzed and summarized. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated settling velocity are negatively correlated with current speed, which can be explained using the combination of flocculation process and Stokes' law. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated resuspension rate are also negatively correlated with current speed, which are related to the grain size of the seabed sediments under different current velocities. Besides, the estimated inflow open boundary conditions reach the local maximum values near the low water slack conditions and the estimated initial conditions are negatively correlated with water depth, which is consistent with the general understanding. The relationships between the estimated parameters and the hydrodynamic fields can be suggestive for improving the parameterization in cohesive sediment transport models.

Initial singularity and pure geometric field theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanas, M. I.; Kamal, Mona M.; Dabash, Tahia F.

2018-01-01

In the present article we use a modified version of the geodesic equation, together with a modified version of the Raychaudhuri equation, to study initial singularities. These modified equations are used to account for the effect of the spin-torsion interaction on the existence of initial singularities in cosmological models. Such models are the results of solutions of the field equations of a class of field theories termed pure geometric. The geometric structure used in this study is an absolute parallelism structure satisfying the cosmological principle. It is shown that the existence of initial singularities is subject to some mathematical (geometric) conditions. The scheme suggested for this study can be easily generalized.

Constraining the inferred paleohydrologic evolution of a deep unsaturated zone in the Amargosa Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walvoord, Michelle Ann; Stonestrom, David A.; Andraski, Brian J.; Striegl, Robert G.

2004-01-01

Natural flow regimes in deep unsaturated zones of arid interfluvial environments are rarely in hydraulic equilibrium with near-surface boundary conditions imposed by present-day plant–soil–atmosphere dynamics. Nevertheless, assessments of water resources and contaminant transport require realistic estimates of gas, water, and solute fluxes under past, present, and projected conditions. Multimillennial transients that are captured in current hydraulic, chemical, and isotopic profiles can be interpreted to constrain alternative scenarios of paleohydrologic evolution following climatic and vegetational shifts from pluvial to arid conditions. However, interpreting profile data with numerical models presents formidable challenges in that boundary conditions must be prescribed throughout the entire Holocene, when we have at most a few decades of actual records. Models of profile development at the Amargosa Desert Research Site include substantial uncertainties from imperfectly known initial and boundary conditions when simulating flow and solute transport over millennial timescales. We show how multiple types of profile data, including matric potentials and porewater concentrations of Cl−, δD, δ18O, can be used in multiphase heat, flow, and transport models to expose and reduce uncertainty in paleohydrologic reconstructions. Results indicate that a dramatic shift in the near-surface water balance occurred approximately 16000 yr ago, but that transitions in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation were not necessarily synchronous. The timing of the hydraulic transition imparts the largest uncertainty to model-predicted contemporary fluxes. In contrast, the uncertainties associated with initial (late Pleistocene) conditions and boundary conditions during the Holocene impart only small uncertainties to model-predicted contemporaneous fluxes.

Health safety nets can break cycles of poverty and disease: a stochastic ecological model

PubMed Central

Pluciński, Mateusz M.; Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Bonds, Matthew H.

2011-01-01

The persistence of extreme poverty is increasingly attributed to dynamic interactions between biophysical processes and economics, though there remains a dearth of integrated theoretical frameworks that can inform policy. Here, we present a stochastic model of disease-driven poverty traps. Whereas deterministic models can result in poverty traps that can only be broken by substantial external changes to the initial conditions, in the stochastic model there is always some probability that a population will leave or enter a poverty trap. We show that a ‘safety net’, defined as an externally enforced minimum level of health or economic conditions, can guarantee ultimate escape from a poverty trap, even if the safety net is set within the basin of attraction of the poverty trap, and even if the safety net is only in the form of a public health measure. Whereas the deterministic model implies that small improvements in initial conditions near the poverty-trap equilibrium are futile, the stochastic model suggests that the impact of changes in the location of the safety net on the rate of development may be strongest near the poverty-trap equilibrium. PMID:21593026

Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) Model

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The program models rainfall, runoff, infiltration, and other water pathways to estimate how much water builds up above each landfill liner. It can incorporate data on vegetation, soil types, geosynthetic materials, initial moisture conditions, slopes, etc.

Influence of Initial Geometry and Boundary Conditions on Flat Subduction Models and Resulting Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, P.; Moucha, R.

2014-12-01

Numerical investigations of surface deformation in response to flat slab subduction began with seminal papers by Bird (1988) and Mitrovica et al. (1989). Recently, a number of numerical studies have begun to explore the complexity in the dynamics of flat-slab subduction initiation and continuation, but did not address the corresponding surface deformation (English et al., 2003; Pérez-Campos et al., 2008; Liu et al., 2010; Jones et al., 2011; Arrial and Billen, 2013; Vogt and Gerya, 2014). Herein, we explore the conditions that lead to flat-slab subduction and characterize the resulting surface deformation using a 2D finite-difference marker-in-cell method. We specifically explore how initial model geometry and boundary conditions affect the evolution of the angle at which a slab subducts in the presence/absence of a buoyant oceanic plateau and the resulting surface topography. In our simulations, the surface is tracked through time as an internal erosion/sedimentation surface. The top boundary of the crust is overlaid by a "sticky" (viscous 10^17 Pa.s) water/air layer with correspondingly stratified densities. We apply a coupled surface processes model that solves the sediment transport/diffusion erosion equation at each time step to account for the corresponding crustal mass flux and its effect on crustal deformation. Model results show the initial angle of subduction has a substantial impact on the subduction angle of the slab and hence the evolution of topography. The results also indicate plate velocity and the presence of an oceanic plateau in a forced subduction only have a moderate effect on the angle of subduction.

Evaluation of the Operational Multi-scale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) for use in Wind Energy Applications in the Great Basin of Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Kristien C.

In order to further assess the wind energy potential for Nevada, the accuracy of a computational meteorological model, the Operational Multi-scale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA), was evaluated by comparing simulation results with data collected from a wind monitoring tower near Tonopah, NV. The state of Nevada is characterized by high mountains and low-lying valleys, therefore, in order to determine the wind potential for the state, meteorological models that predict the wind must be able to accurately represent and account for terrain features and simulate topographic forcing with accuracy. Topographic forcing has a dominant role in the development and modification of mesoscale flows in regions of complex terrain, like Tonopah, especially at the level of wind turbine blade heights (~80 m). Additionally, model factors such as horizontal resolution, terrain database resolution, model physics, time of model initialization, stability regime, and source of initial conditions may each affect the ability of a mesoscale model to forecast winds correctly. The observational tower used for comparison was located at Stone Cabin, Nevada. The tower had both sonic anemometers and cup anemometers installed at heights of 40 m, 60 m, and 80 m above the surface. During a previous experiment, tower data were collected for the period February 9 through March 10, 2007 and compared to model simulations using the MM5 and WRF models at a number of varying horizontal resolutions. In this previous research, neither the MM5 nor the WRF showed a significant improvement in ability to forecast wind speed with increasing horizontal grid resolution. The present research evaluated the ability of OMEGA to reproduce point winds as compared to the observational data from the Stone Cabin Tower at heights of 40 m, 60 m, and 80 m. Unlike other mesoscale atmospheric models, OMEGA incorporates an unstructured triangular adaptive grid which allows for increased flexibility and accuracy in characterizing areas of complex terrain. Model sensitivity to horizontal grid resolution, initial conditions, and time of initialization were tested. OMEGA was run over three different horizontal grid resolutions with minimum horizontal edge lengths of: 18 km, 6 km, and 2 km. For each resolution, the model was initialized using both the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to determine model sensitivity to initial conditions. For both the NARR and GFS initializations, the model was started at both 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC to determine the effect of start time and stability regime on the performance of the model. An additional intensive study into the model's performance was also conducted by a detailed evaluation of model results during two separate 24-hour periods, the first a period where the model performed well and the second a period where the model performed poorly, to determine which atmospheric factors most affect the predictive ability of the OMEGA model. The statistical results were then compared with the results from the MM5 and WRF simulations to determine the most appropriate model for wind energy potential studies in complex terrain.

Targeting the right input data to improve crop modeling at global level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, M.; Robertson, R.; Gbegbelegbe, S.; Jones, J. W.; Boote, K. J.; Asseng, S.

2012-12-01

Designed for location-specific simulations, the use of crop models at a global level raises important questions. Crop models are originally premised on small unit areas where environmental conditions and management practices are considered homogeneous. Specific information describing soils, climate, management, and crop characteristics are used in the calibration process. However, when scaling up for global application, we rely on information derived from geographical information systems and weather generators. To run crop models at broad, we use a modeling platform that assumes a uniformly generated grid cell as a unit area. Specific weather, specific soil and specific management practices for each crop are represented for each of the cell grids. Studies on the impacts of the uncertainties of weather information and climate change on crop yield at a global level have been carried out (Osborne et al, 2007, Nelson et al., 2010, van Bussel et al, 2011). Detailed information on soils and management practices at global level are very scarce but recognized to be of critical importance (Reidsma et al., 2009). Few attempts to assess the impact of their uncertainties on cropping systems performances can be found. The objectives of this study are (i) to determine sensitivities of a crop model to soil and management practices, inputs most relevant to low input rainfed cropping systems, and (ii) to define hotspots of sensitivity according to the input data. We ran DSSAT v4.5 globally (CERES-CROPSIM) to simulate wheat yields at 45arc-minute resolution. Cultivar parameters were calibrated and validated for different mega-environments (results not shown). The model was run for nitrogen-limited production systems. This setting was chosen as the most representative to simulate actual yield (especially for low-input rainfed agricultural systems) and assumes crop growth to be free of any pest and diseases damages. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on contrasting management practices, initial soil conditions, and soil characteristics information. Management practices were represented by planting date and the amount of fertilizer, initial conditions estimates for initial nitrogen, soil water, and stable soil carbon, and soil information is based on a simplified version of the WISE database, characterized by soil organic matter, texture and soil depth. We considered these factors as the most important determinants of nutrient supply to crops during their growing season. Our first global results demonstrate that the model is most sensitive to the initial conditions in terms of soil carbon and nitrogen (CN): wheat yields decreased by 45% when soil CN is null and increase by 15% when twice the soil CN content of the reference run is used. The yields did not appear to be very sensitive to initial soil water conditions, varying from 0% yield increase when initial soil water is set to wilting point to 6% yield increase when it was set to field capacity. They are slightly sensitive to nitrogen application: 8% yield decrease when no N is applied to 9% yield increase when 150 kg.ha-1 is applied. However, with closer examination of results, the model is more sensitive to nitrogen application than to initial soil CN content in Vietnam, Thailand and Japan compared to the rest of the world. More analyses per region and results on the planting dates and soil properties will be presented.

About the Atlantic RTOFS

Science.gov Websites

Quadratic bottom friction coefficient: 0.003 Bottom boundary layer thickness: 10 m EMC/MMAB Information . Provide seamless boundary and initial conditions to regional ocean physical and biogeochemical models RTOFS. Their report is available here (pdf). Model Configuration The dynamical model is HYCOM. The model

Relative Influence of Initial Surface and Atmospheric Conditions on Seasonal Water and Energy Balances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Robertson, Franklin R.; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We constructed and analyzed wet and dry soil moisture composites for the mid-latitude GCIP region of the central US using long climate model simulations made with the NCAR CCM3 and reanalysis products from NCEP. Using the diagnostic composites as a guide, we have completed a series of predictability experiments in which we imposed soil water initial conditions in CCM3 for the GCIP region for June 1 from anomalously wet and dry years, with atmospheric initial conditions taken from June 1 of a year with 'near-normal' soil water, and initial soil water from the near-normal year and atmospheric initial conditions from the wet and dry years. Preliminary results indicate that the initial state of the atmosphere is more important than the initial state of soil water determining the subsequent late spring and summer evolution of sod water over the GCIP region. Surprisingly, neither the composites or the predictability experiments yielded a strong influence of soil moisture on the atmosphere. To explore this further, we have made runs with extreme dry soil moisture initial anomalies imposed over the GCIP region (the soil close to being completely dry). These runs did yield a very strong effect on the atmosphere that persisted for at least three months. We conclude that the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly is crucial, at least in CCM3, and are currently investigating whether a threshold exists, below which little impact is seen. In a complementary study, we compared the impact of the initial condition of snow cover versus the initial atmospheric state over the western US (corresponding to the westward extension of the GAPP program follow-on to GCIP). In this case, the initial prescription of snow cover is far more important than the initial atmospheric state in determining the subsequent evolution of snow cover. We are currently working to understand the very different soil water and snow cover results.

A Unique Computational Algorithm to Simulate Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model Complex Material Point Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Abumeri, Galib H.

2010-01-01

The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the launch external tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points--the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation, the data used was obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated.

Water movement in glass bead porous media: 1. Experiments of capillary rise and hysteresis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, T. X.; Biggar, J. W.; Nielsen, D. R.

1994-12-01

Experimental observations of capillary rise and hysteresis of water or ethanol in glass beads are presented to improve our understanding of those physical processes in porous media. The results provide evidence that capillary rise into porous media cannot be fully explained by a model of cylinders. They further demonstrate that the "Ink bottle" model does not provide an adequate explanation of hysteresis. Glass beads serving as a model for ideal soil are enclosed in a rectangular glass chamber model. A TV camera associated with a microscope was used to record the processes of capillary rise and drainage. It is clearly shown during capillary rise that the fluid exhibits a "jump" behavior at the neck of the pores in an initially dry profile or at the bottom of the water film in an initially wet profile. Under an initially dry condition, the jump initiates at the particle with smallest diameter. The jump process continues to higher elevations until at equilibrium the surface tensile force is balanced by the hydrostatic force. The wetting front at that time is readily observed as flat and saturated. Under an initially wet condition, capillary rise occurs as a water film thickening process associated with the jump process. Trapped air behind the wetting front renders the wetting front irregular and unsaturated. The capillary rise into an initially wet porous medium can be higher than that into an initially dry profile. During the drying process, large surface areas associated with the gas-liquid interface develop, allowing the porous medium to retain more water than during the wetting process at the same pressure. That mechanism explains better the hysteresis phenomenon in porous media in contrast to other mechanisms that now prevail.

Sensitivity of Land Surface Parameters on Thunderstorm Simulation through HRLDAS-WRF Coupling Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Dinesh; Kumar, Krishan; Mohanty, U. C.; Kisore Osuri, Krishna

2016-07-01

Land surface characteristics play an important role in large scale, regional and mesoscale atmospheric process. Representation of land surface characteristics can be improved through coupling of mesoscale atmospheric models with land surface models. Mesoscale atmospheric models depend on Land Surface Models (LSM) to provide land surface variables such as fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum for lower boundary layer evolution. Studies have shown that land surface properties such as soil moisture, soil temperature, soil roughness, vegetation cover, have considerable effect on lower boundary layer. Although, the necessity to initialize soil moisture accurately in NWP models is widely acknowledged, monitoring soil moisture at regional and global scale is a very tough task due to high spatial and temporal variability. As a result, the available observation network is unable to provide the required spatial and temporal data for the most part of the globe. Therefore, model for land surface initializations rely on updated land surface properties from LSM. The solution for NWP land-state initialization can be found by combining data assimilation techniques, satellite-derived soil data, and land surface models. Further, it requires an intermediate step to use observed rainfall, satellite derived surface insolation, and meteorological analyses to run an uncoupled (offline) integration of LSM, so that the evolution of modeled soil moisture can be forced by observed forcing conditions. Therefore, for accurate land-state initialization, high resolution land data assimilation system (HRLDAS) is used to provide the essential land surface parameters. Offline-coupling of HRLDAS-WRF has shown much improved results over Delhi, India for four thunder storm events. The evolution of land surface variables particularly soil moisture, soil temperature and surface fluxes have provided more realistic condition. Results have shown that most of domain part became wetter and warmer after assimilation of soil moisture and soil temperature at the initial condition which helped to improve the exchange fluxes at lower atmospheric level. Mixing ratio were increased along with elevated theta-e at lower level giving a signature of improvement in LDAS experiment leading to a suitable condition for convection. In the analysis, moisture convergence, mixing ratio and vertical velocities have improved significantly in terms of intensity and time lag. Surface variables like soil moisture, soil temperature, sensible heat flux and latent heat flux have progressed in a possible realistic pattern. Above discussion suggests that assimilation of soil moisture and soil temperature improves the overall simulations significantly.

Analytic model to estimate thermonuclear neutron yield in z-pinches using the magnetic Noh problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Robert C.

The objective was to build a model which could be used to estimate neutron yield in pulsed z-pinch experiments, benchmark future z-pinch simulation tools and to assist scaling for breakeven systems. To accomplish this, a recent solution to the magnetic Noh problem was utilized which incorporates a self-similar solution with cylindrical symmetry and azimuthal magnetic field (Velikovich, 2012). The self-similar solution provides the conditions needed to calculate the time dependent implosion dynamics from which batch burn is assumed and used to calculate neutron yield. The solution to the model is presented. The ion densities and time scales fix the initial mass and implosion velocity, providing estimates of the experimental results given specific initial conditions. Agreement is shown with experimental data (Coverdale, 2007). A parameter sweep was done to find the neutron yield, implosion velocity and gain for a range of densities and time scales for DD reactions and a curve fit was done to predict the scaling as a function of preshock conditions.

Chemometric study on the electrochemical incineration of diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid using boron-doped diamond anode.

PubMed

Xian, Jiahui; Liu, Min; Chen, Wei; Zhang, Chunyong; Fu, Degang

2018-05-01

The electrochemical incineration of diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) with boron-doped diamond (BDD) anode had been initially performed under galvanostatic conditions. The main and interaction effects of four operating parameters (flow rate, applied current density, sulfate concentration and initial DTPA concentration) on mineralization performance were investigated. Under similar experimental conditions, Doehlert matrix (DM) and central composite rotatable design (CCRD) were used as statistical multivariate methods in the optimization of the anodic oxidation processes. A comparison between DM model and CCRD model revealed that the former was more accurate, possibly due to its higher operating level numbers employed (7 levels for two variables). Despite this, these two models resulted in quite similar optimum operating conditions. The maximum TOC removal percentages at 180 min were 76.2% and 73.8% for case of DM and CCRD, respectively. In addition, with the aid of quantum chemistry calculation and LC/MS analysis, a plausible degradation sequence of DTPA on BDD anode was also proposed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Approach to Identifying Structural Nonlinearity using Free-Decay Response: Application to Damage Detection in Composites

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-03

obtainable while for the free-decay problem we simply have to include the initial conditions as random variables to be predicted. A different approach that...important and useful properties of MLEs is that, under regularity conditions , they are asymptotically unbiased and possess the minimum possible...becomes pLðzjh;s2G;MiÞ (i.e. the likelihood is conditional on the specified model). However, in this work we will only consider a single model and drop the

Constraining biosphere CO2 flux at regional scale with WRF-CO2 4DVar assimilation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, T.

2017-12-01

The WRF-CO2 4DVar assimilation system is updated to include (1) operators for tower based observations (2) chemistry initial and boundary condition in the state vector (3) mechanism for aggregation from simulation model grid to state vector space. The update system is first tested with synthetic data to ensure its accuracy. The system is then used to test regional scale CO2 inversion at MCI (Midcontinental intensive) sites where CO2 mole fraction data were collected at multiple high towers during 2007-2008. The model domain is set to center on Iowa and include 8 towers within its boundary, and it is of 12x12km horizontal grid spacing. First, the relative impacts of the initial and boundary condition are assessed by the system's adjoint model. This is done with 24, 48, 72 hour time span. Second, we assessed the impacts of the transport error, including the misrepresentation of the boundary layer and cumulus activities. Third, we evaluated the different aggregation approach from the native model grid to the control variables (including scaling factors for flux, initial and boundary conditions). Four, we assessed the inversion performance using CO2 observation with different time-interval, and from different tower levels. We also examined the appropriate treatment of the background and observation error covariance in relation with these varying observation data sets.

Tests of oceanic stochastic parameterisation in a seasonal forecast system.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Fenwick; Andrejczuk, Miroslaw; Juricke, Stephan; Zanna, Laure; Palmer, Tim

2015-04-01

Over seasonal time scales, our aim is to compare the relative impact of ocean initial condition and model uncertainty, upon the ocean forecast skill and reliability. Over seasonal timescales we compare four oceanic stochastic parameterisation schemes applied in a 1x1 degree ocean model (NEMO) with a fully coupled T159 atmosphere (ECMWF IFS). The relative impacts upon the ocean of the resulting eddy induced activity, wind forcing and typical initial condition perturbations are quantified. Following the historical success of stochastic parameterisation in the atmosphere, two of the parameterisations tested were multiplicitave in nature: A stochastic variation of the Gent-McWilliams scheme and a stochastic diffusion scheme. We also consider a surface flux parameterisation (similar to that introduced by Williams, 2012), and stochastic perturbation of the equation of state (similar to that introduced by Brankart, 2013). The amplitude of the stochastic term in the Williams (2012) scheme was set to the physically reasonable amplitude considered in that paper. The amplitude of the stochastic term in each of the other schemes was increased to the limits of model stability. As expected, variability was increased. Up to 1 month after initialisation, ensemble spread induced by stochastic parameterisation is greater than that induced by the atmosphere, whilst being smaller than the initial condition perturbations currently used at ECMWF. After 1 month, the wind forcing becomes the dominant source of model ocean variability, even at depth.

Topology in two dimensions. IV - CDM models with non-Gaussian initial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coles, Peter; Moscardini, Lauro; Plionis, Manolis; Lucchin, Francesco; Matarrese, Sabino; Messina, Antonio

1993-02-01

The results of N-body simulations with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian initial conditions are used here to generate projected galaxy catalogs with the same selection criteria as the Shane-Wirtanen counts of galaxies. The Euler-Poincare characteristic is used to compare the statistical nature of the projected galaxy clustering in these simulated data sets with that of the observed galaxy catalog. All the models produce a topology dominated by a meatball shift when normalized to the known small-scale clustering properties of galaxies. Models characterized by a positive skewness of the distribution of primordial density perturbations are inconsistent with the Lick data, suggesting problems in reconciling models based on cosmic textures with observations. Gaussian CDM models fit the distribution of cell counts only if they have a rather high normalization but possess too low a coherence length compared with the Lick counts. This suggests that a CDM model with extra large scale power would probably fit the available data.

Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological response to Hurricane Katrina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindemer, C.A.; Plant, N.G.; Puleo, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Wamsley, T.V.

2010-01-01

Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines along the Gulf Coast. The Chandeleur Islands, located 161. km east of New Orleans, Louisiana, have endured numerous hurricanes that have passed nearby. Hurricane Katrina (landfall near Waveland MS, 29 Aug 2005) caused dramatic changes to the island elevation and shape. In this paper the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion is evaluated using a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model known as XBeach. Pre- and post-storm island topography was surveyed with an airborne lidar system. Numerical simulations utilized realistic surge and wave conditions determined from larger-scale hydrodynamic models. Simulations included model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions. Model-predicted bathymetry/topography and post-storm survey data both showed similar patterns of island erosion, such as increased dissection by channels. However, the model under predicted the magnitude of erosion. Potential causes for under prediction include (1) errors in the initial conditions (the initial bathymetry/topography was measured three years prior to Katrina), (2) errors in the forcing conditions (a result of our omission of storms prior to Katrina and/or errors in Katrina storm conditions), and/or (3) physical processes that were omitted from the model (e.g., inclusion of sediment variations and bio-physical processes). ?? 2010.

Effect of initial densities in the lattice Boltzmann model for non-ideal fluid with curved interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Jiaming; Oshima, Nobuyuki

2017-06-01

The effect of initial densities in a free energy based two-phase-flow lattice Boltzmann method for non-ideal fluids with a curved interface was investigated in the present work. To investigate this effect, the initial densities in the liquid and gas phases coming from the saturation points and the equilibrium state were adopted in the simulation of a static droplet in an open and a closed system. For the purpose of simplicity and easier comparison, the closed system is fabricated by the implementation of the periodic boundary condition at the inlet and outlet of a gas channel, and the open system is fabricated by the implementation of a constant flux boundary condition at the inlet and a free-out boundary condition at the outlet of the same gas channel. By comparing the simulation results from the two types of initial densities in the open and closed systems, it is proven that the commonly used saturation initial densities setting is the reason for droplet mass and volume variation which occurred in the simulation, particularly in the open system with a constant flux boundary condition. Such problems are believed to come from the curvature effect of the surface tension and can be greatly reduced by adopting the initial densities in the two phases from equilibrium state.

Some Aspects of Advanced Tokamak Modeling in DIII-D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St John, H. E.; Petty, C. C.; Murakami, M.; Kinsey, J. E.

2000-10-01

We extend previous work(M. Murakami, et al., General Atomics Report GA-A23310 (1999).) done on time dependent DIII-D advanced tokamak simulations by introducing theoretical confinement models rather than relying on power balance derived transport coefficients. We explore using NBCD and off axis ECCD together with a self-consistent aligned bootstrap current, driven by the internal transport barrier dynamics generated with the GLF23 confinement model, to shape the hollow current profile and to maintain MHD stable conditions. Our theoretical modeling approach uses measured DIII-D initial conditions to start off the simulations in a smooth consistent manner. This mitigates the troublesome long lived perturbations in the ohmic current profile that is normally caused by inconsistent initial data. To achieve this goal our simulation uses a sequence of time dependent eqdsks generated autonomously by the EFIT MHD equilibrium code in analyzing experimental data to supply the history for the simulation.

Tropical forecasting - Predictability perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shukla, J.

1989-01-01

Results are presented of classical predictability studies and forecast experiments with observed initial conditions to show the nature of initial error growth and final error equilibration for the tropics and midlatitudes, separately. It is found that the theoretical upper limit of tropical circulation predictability is far less than for midlatitudes. The error growth for a complete general circulation model is compared to a dry version of the same model in which there is no prognostic equation for moisture, and diabatic heat sources are prescribed. It is found that the growth rate of synoptic-scale errors for the dry model is significantly smaller than for the moist model, suggesting that the interactions between dynamics and moist processes are among the important causes of atmospheric flow predictability degradation. Results are then presented of numerical experiments showing that correct specification of the slowly varying boundary condition of SST produces significant improvement in the prediction of time-averaged circulation and rainfall over the tropics.

Nonlinear system controller design based on domain of attaction: An application to CELSS analysis and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Babcock, P. S., IV

1986-01-01

Nonlinear system controller design based on the domain of attraction is presented. This is particularly suited to investigating Closed Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) models. In particular, the dynamic consequences of changes in the waste storage capacity and system mass, and how information is used for control in CELSS models are examined. The models' high dimensionality and nonlinear state equations make them difficult to analyze by any other technique. The domain of attraction is the region in initial conditions that tend toward an attractor and it is delineated by randomly selecting initial conditions from the region of state space being investigated. Error analysis is done by repeating the domain simulations with independent samples. A refinement of this region is the domain of performance which is the region of initial conditions meeting a performance criteria. In nonlinear systems, local stability does not insure stability over a larger region. The domain of attraction marks out this stability region; hence, it can be considered a measure of a nonlinear system's ability to recovery from state perturbations. Considering random perturbations, the minimum radius of the domain is a measure of the magnitude of perturbations for which recovery is guaranteed. Design of both linear and nonlinear controllers are shown. Three CELSS models, with 9 to 30 state variable, are presented. Measures of the domain of attraction are used to show the global behavior of these models under a variety of design and controller scenarios.

ANALYSIS OF TERRESTRIAL PLANET FORMATION BY THE GRAND TACK MODEL: SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE AND TACK LOCATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brasser, R.; Ida, S.; Matsumura, S.

2016-04-20

The Grand Tack model of terrestrial planet formation has emerged in recent years as the premier scenario used to account for several observed features of the inner solar system. It relies on the early migration of the giant planets to gravitationally sculpt and mix the planetesimal disk down to ∼1 au, after which the terrestrial planets accrete from material remaining in a narrow circumsolar annulus. Here, we investigate how the model fares under a range of initial conditions and migration course-change (“tack”) locations. We run a large number of N-body simulations with tack locations of 1.5 and 2 au andmore » test initial conditions using equal-mass planetary embryos and a semi-analytical approach to oligarchic growth. We make use of a recent model of the protosolar disk that takes into account viscous heating, includes the full effect of type 1 migration, and employs a realistic mass–radius relation for the growing terrestrial planets. Our results show that the canonical tack location of Jupiter at 1.5 au is inconsistent with the most massive planet residing at 1 au at greater than 95% confidence. This favors a tack farther out at 2 au for the disk model and parameters employed. Of the different initial conditions, we find that the oligarchic case is capable of statistically reproducing the orbital architecture and mass distribution of the terrestrial planets, while the equal-mass embryo case is not.« less

Observables for longitudinal flow correlations in heavy-ion collisions

DOE PAGES

Jia, Jiangyong; Huo, Peng; Ma, Guoliang; ...

2017-06-06

In this paper, we propose several new observables/correlators, based on correlations between two or more subevents separated in pseudorapidity η, to study the longitudinal flow fluctuations. We show that these observables are sensitive to the event-by-event fluctuations, as a function of η, of the initial condition as well as the nonlinear mode-mixing effects. Finally, experimental measurement of these observables shall provide important new constraints on the boost-variant event-by-event initial conditions required by all 3+1-dimensional viscous hydrodynamics models.

Setting initial conditions for inflation with reaction-diffusion equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagchi, Partha; Das, Arpan; Dave, Shreyansh S.; Sengupta, Srikumar; Srivastava, Ajit M.

2018-03-01

We discuss the issue of setting appropriate initial conditions for inflation. Specifically, we consider natural inflation model and discuss the fine tuning required for setting almost homogeneous initial conditions over a region of order several times the Hubble size which is orders of magnitude larger than any relevant correlation length for field fluctuations. We then propose to use the special propagating front solutions of reaction-diffusion equations for localized field domains of smaller sizes. Due to very small velocities of these propagating fronts we find that the inflaton field in such a field domain changes very slowly, contrary to naive expectation of rapid roll down to the true vacuum. Continued expansion leads to the energy density in the Hubble region being dominated by the vacuum energy, thereby beginning the inflationary phase. Our results show that inflation can occur even with a single localized field domain of size smaller than the Hubble size. We discuss possible extensions of our results for different inflationary models, as well as various limitations of our analysis (e.g. neglecting self gravity of the localized field domain).

A graphical modeling tool for evaluating nitrogen loading to and nitrate transport in ground water in the mid-Snake region, south-central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, David W.; Skinner, Kenneth D.; Pollock, David W.

2006-01-01

A flow and transport model was created with a graphical user interface to simplify the evaluation of nitrogen loading and nitrate transport in the mid-Snake region in south-central Idaho. This model and interface package, the Snake River Nitrate Scenario Simulator, uses the U.S. Geological Survey's MODFLOW 2000 and MOC3D models. The interface, which is enabled for use with geographic information systems (GIS), was created using ESRI's royalty-free MapObjects LT software. The interface lets users view initial nitrogen-loading conditions (representing conditions as of 1998), alter the nitrogen loading within selected zones by specifying a multiplication factor and applying it to the initial condition, run the flow and transport model, and view a graphical representation of the modeling results. The flow and transport model of the Snake River Nitrate Scenario Simulator was created by rediscretizing and recalibrating a clipped portion of an existing regional flow model. The new subregional model was recalibrated with newly available water-level data and spring and ground-water nitrate concentration data for the study area. An updated nitrogen input GIS layer controls the application of nitrogen to the flow and transport model. Users can alter the nitrogen application to the flow and transport model by altering the nitrogen load in predefined spatial zones contained within similar political, hydrologic, and size-constrained boundaries.

Decoherence and surface hopping: When can averaging over initial conditions help capture the effects of wave packet separation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subotnik, Joseph E.; Shenvi, Neil

2011-06-01

Fewest-switches surface hopping (FSSH) is a popular nonadiabatic dynamics method which treats nuclei with classical mechanics and electrons with quantum mechanics. In order to simulate the motion of a wave packet as accurately as possible, standard FSSH requires a stochastic sampling of the trajectories over a distribution of initial conditions corresponding, e.g., to the Wigner distribution of the initial quantum wave packet. Although it is well-known that FSSH does not properly account for decoherence effects, there is some confusion in the literature about whether or not this averaging over a distribution of initial conditions can approximate some of the effects of decoherence. In this paper, we not only show that averaging over initial conditions does not generally account for decoherence, but also why it fails to do so. We also show how an apparent improvement in accuracy can be obtained for a fortuitous choice of model problems, even though this improvement is not possible, in general. For a basic set of one-dimensional and two-dimensional examples, we find significantly improved results using our recently introduced augmented FSSH algorithm.

Detecting dark energy in orbit: The cosmological chameleon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brax, Philippe; Bruck, Carsten van de; Davis, Anne-Christine

2004-12-15

We show that the chameleon scalar field can drive the current phase of cosmic acceleration for a large class of scalar potentials that are also consistent with local tests of gravity. These provide explicit realizations of a quintessence model where the quintessence scalar field couples directly to baryons and dark matter with gravitational strength. We analyze the cosmological evolution of the chameleon field and show the existence of an attractor solution with the chameleon following the minimum of its effective potential. For a wide range of initial conditions, spanning many orders of magnitude in initial chameleon energy density, the attractormore » is reached before nucleosynthesis. Surprisingly, the range of allowed initial conditions leading to a successful cosmology is wider than in normal quintessence. We discuss applications to the cyclic model of the universe and show how the chameleon mechanism weakens some of the constraints on cyclic potentials.« less

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Druyan, Leonard M.; Fulakeza, Matthew; Lonergan, Patrick; Saloum, Mahaman; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

(Re)evaluating the Implications of the Autoregressive Latent Trajectory Model Through Likelihood Ratio Tests of Its Initial Conditions.

PubMed

Ou, Lu; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ji, Linying; Molenaar, Peter C M

2017-01-01

The autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model synthesizes the autoregressive model and the latent growth curve model. The ALT model is flexible enough to produce a variety of discrepant model-implied change trajectories. While some researchers consider this a virtue, others have cautioned that this may confound interpretations of the model's parameters. In this article, we show that some-but not all-of these interpretational difficulties may be clarified mathematically and tested explicitly via likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) imposed on the initial conditions of the model. We show analytically the nested relations among three variants of the ALT model and the constraints needed to establish equivalences. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicated that LRTs, particularly when used in combination with information criterion measures, can allow researchers to test targeted hypotheses about the functional forms of the change process under study. We further demonstrate when and how such tests may justifiably be used to facilitate our understanding of the underlying process of change using a subsample (N = 3,995) of longitudinal family income data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.

Development of plant condition measurement - The Jimah Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Roy F.; Syuhaimi, Mohd; Mazli, Mohammad; Kamarudin, Nurliyana; Maniza Othman, Faiz

2012-05-01

The Jimah Model is an information management model. The model has been designed to facilitate analysis of machine condition by integrating diagnostic data with quantitative and qualitative information. The model treats data as a single strand of information - metaphorically a 'genome' of data. The 'Genome' is structured to be representative of plant function and identifies the condition of selected components (or genes) in each machine. To date in industry, computer aided work processes used with traditional industrial practices, have been unable to consistently deliver a standard of information suitable for holistic evaluation of machine condition and change. Significantly the reengineered site strategies necessary for implementation of this "data genome concept" have resulted in enhanced knowledge and management of plant condition. In large plant with high initial equipment cost and subsequent high maintenance costs, accurate measurement of major component condition becomes central to whole of life management and replacement decisions. A case study following implementation of the model at a major power station site in Malaysia (Jimah) shows that modeling of plant condition and wear (in real time) can be made a practical reality.

Combustor liner durability analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moreno, V.

1981-01-01

An 18 month combustor liner durability analysis program was conducted to evaluate the use of advanced three dimensional transient heat transfer and nonlinear stress-strain analyses for modeling the cyclic thermomechanical response of a simulated combustor liner specimen. Cyclic life prediction technology for creep/fatigue interaction is evaluated for a variety of state-of-the-art tools for crack initiation and propagation. The sensitivity of the initiation models to a change in the operating conditions is also assessed.

Systematic studies of correlations between different order flow harmonics in Pb-Pb collisions at √{sNN}=2.76 TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, S.; Adam, J.; Adamová, D.; Adolfsson, J.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Aglieri Rinella, G.; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahmad, N.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Al-Turany, M.; Alam, S. N.; Alba, J. L. B.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altenkamper, L.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andreou, D.; Andrews, H. A.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anson, C.; Antičić, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Anwar, R.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshäuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badalà, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Baldisseri, A.; Ball, M.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barioglio, L.; Barnaföldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Basu, S.; Batigne, G.; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Beltran, L. G. E.; Belyaev, V.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, A.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielčík, J.; Bielčíková, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Boca, G.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boldizsár, L.; Bombara, M.; Bonomi, G.; Bonora, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Bratrud, L.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Broker, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buhler, P.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Caines, H.; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Capon, A. A.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castillo Castellanos, J.; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Ceballos Sanchez, C.; Cerello, P.; Chandra, S.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Chibante Barroso, V.; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Chowdhury, T.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Chung, S. U.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Concas, M.; Conesa Balbastre, G.; Conesa Del Valle, Z.; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Corrales Morales, Y.; Cortés Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Costanza, S.; Crkovská, J.; Crochet, P.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, D.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; de, S.; de Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; de Falco, A.; de Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; de Pasquale, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Degenhardt, H. F.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; di Bari, D.; di Mauro, A.; di Nezza, P.; di Ruzza, B.; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divià, R.; Djuvsland, Ø.; Dobrin, A.; Domenicis Gimenez, D.; Dönigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Doremalen, L. V. R.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Duggal, A. K.; Dukhishyam, M.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Esumi, S.; Eulisse, G.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Fabbietti, L.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Fernández Téllez, A.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Francisco, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Fusco Girard, M.; Gaardhøje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gajdosova, K.; Gallio, M.; Galvan, C. D.; Ganoti, P.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Garg, K.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Gay Ducati, M. B.; Germain, M.; Ghosh, J.; Ghosh, P.; Ghosh, S. K.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glässel, P.; Goméz Coral, D. M.; Gomez Ramirez, A.; Gonzalez, A. S.; González-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Görlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Greiner, L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosa, F.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Gruber, L.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, R.; Guzman, I. B.; Haake, R.; Hadjidakis, C.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Haque, M. R.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hassan, H.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbär, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Hernandez, E. G.; Herrera Corral, G.; Herrmann, F.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hills, C.; Hippolyte, B.; Hladky, J.; Hohlweger, B.; Horak, D.; Hornung, S.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Hughes, C.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Iga Buitron, S. A.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Islam, M. S.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacak, B.; Jacazio, N.; Jacobs, P. M.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jaelani, S.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Jercic, M.; Jimenez Bustamante, R. T.; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kang, J. H.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Karasu Uysal, A.; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karczmarczyk, P.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Ketzer, B.; Khabanova, Z.; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Khatun, A.; Khuntia, A.; Kielbowicz, M. M.; Kileng, B.; Kim, B.; Kim, D.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, H.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Kim, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein, J.; Klein-Bösing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Köhler, M. K.; Kollegger, T.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Konyushikhin, M.; Kopcik, M.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, G.; Králik, I.; Kravčáková, A.; Kreis, L.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kučera, V.; Kuhn, C.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kundu, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kushpil, S.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lai, Y. S.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lapidus, K.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lavicka, R.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lehner, S.; Lehrbach, J.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; León Monzón, I.; Lévai, P.; Li, X.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lim, B.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lindsay, S. W.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Litichevskyi, V.; Llope, W. J.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Loncar, P.; Lopez, X.; López Torres, E.; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Luhder, J. R.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lupi, M.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Mao, Y.; Marchisone, M.; Mareš, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marín, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, J. A. L.; Martínez, M. I.; Martínez García, G.; Martinez Pedreira, M.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Masson, E.; Mastroserio, A.; Mathis, A. M.; Matuoka, P. F. T.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzilli, M.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Mercado Pérez, J.; Meres, M.; Mhlanga, S.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mihaylov, D. L.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miśkowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Mohisin Khan, M.; Moreira de Godoy, D. A.; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Mühlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Münning, K.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Myers, C. J.; Myrcha, J. W.; Nag, D.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Narayan, A.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Negrao de Oliveira, R. A.; Nellen, L.; Nesbo, S. V.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Ohlson, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pacik, V.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paić, G.; Palni, P.; Pan, J.; Pandey, A. K.; Panebianco, S.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Pathak, S. P.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Peng, X.; Pereira, L. G.; Pereira da Costa, H.; Peresunko, D.; Perez Lezama, E.; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petráček, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Pezzi, R. P.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Płoskoń, M.; Planinic, M.; Pliquett, F.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Poppenborg, H.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Pozdniakov, V.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Rana, D. B.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Räsänen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Ratza, V.; Ravasenga, I.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Rehman, A.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rodríguez Cahuantzi, M.; Røed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Röhrich, D.; Rokita, P. S.; Ronchetti, F.; Rosas, E. D.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Rotondi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Rueda, O. V.; Rui, R.; Rumyantsev, B.; Rustamov, A.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Šafařík, K.; Saha, S. K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandoval, A.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Sas, M. H. P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schaefer, B.; Scharenberg, R. P.; Scheid, H. S.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schmidt, M. O.; Schmidt, M.; Schmidt, N. V.; Schukraft, J.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Šefčík, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sett, P.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shahoyan, R.; Shaikh, W.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, A.; Sharma, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silaeva, S.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; Sozzi, F.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Srivastava, B. K.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Stocco, D.; Storetvedt, M. M.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Šumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Suzuki, K.; Swain, S.; Szabo, A.; Szarka, I.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Muñoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thakur, D.; Thakur, S.; Thomas, D.; Thoresen, F.; Tieulent, R.; Tikhonov, A.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Torres, S. R.; Tripathy, S.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Tropp, L.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Trzeciak, B. A.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Umaka, E. N.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; van der Maarel, J.; van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vande Vyvre, P.; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vázquez Doce, O.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limón, S.; Vernet, R.; Vértesi, R.; Vickovic, L.; Vigolo, S.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Villalobos Baillie, O.; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Vodopyanov, A.; Völkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Voscek, D.; Vranic, D.; Vrláková, J.; Wagner, B.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weber, M.; Weber, S. G.; Weiser, D. F.; Wenzel, S. C.; Wessels, J. P.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Willems, G. A.; Williams, M. C. S.; Willsher, E.; Windelband, B.; Witt, W. E.; Yalcin, S.; Yamakawa, K.; Yang, P.; Yano, S.; Yin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I.-K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Závada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, C.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, D.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, J.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zmeskal, J.; Zou, S.; Alice Collaboration

2018-02-01

The correlations between event-by-event fluctuations of anisotropic flow harmonic amplitudes have been measured in Pb-Pb collisions at √{sNN}=2.76 TeV with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The results are reported in terms of multiparticle correlation observables dubbed symmetric cumulants. These observables are robust against biases originating from nonflow effects. The centrality dependence of correlations between the higher order harmonics (the quadrangular v4 and pentagonal v5 flow) and the lower order harmonics (the elliptic v2 and triangular v3 flow) is presented. The transverse momentum dependences of correlations between v3 and v2 and between v4 and v2 are also reported. The results are compared to calculations from viscous hydrodynamics and a multiphase transport (AMPT) model calculations. The comparisons to viscous hydrodynamic models demonstrate that the different order harmonic correlations respond differently to the initial conditions and the temperature dependence of the ratio of shear viscosity to entropy density (η /s ) . A small average value of η /s is favored independent of the specific choice of initial conditions in the models. The calculations with the AMPT initial conditions yield results closest to the measurements. Correlations among the magnitudes of v2, v3, and v4 show moderate pT dependence in midcentral collisions. This might be an indication of possible viscous corrections to the equilibrium distribution at hadronic freeze-out, which might help to understand the possible contribution of bulk viscosity in the hadronic phase of the system. Together with existing measurements of individual flow harmonics, the presented results provide further constraints on the initial conditions and the transport properties of the system produced in heavy-ion collisions.

Systematic studies of correlations between different order flow harmonics in Pb-Pb collisions at s NN = 2.76 TeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Acharya, S.; Adam, J.; Adamová, D.

The correlations between event-by-event fluctuations of anisotropic flow harmonic amplitudes have been measured in Pb-Pb collisions atmore » $$\\sqrt{s}$$$_ {NN}$$=2.76 TeV with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The results are reported in terms of multiparticle correlation observables dubbed symmetric cumulants. These observables are robust against biases originating from nonflow effects. The centrality dependence of correlations between the higher order harmonics (the quadrangular v 4 and pentagonal v 5 flow) and the lower order harmonics (the elliptic v 2 and triangular v 3 flow) is presented. The transverse momentum dependences of correlations between v 3 and v 2 and between v 4 and v 2 are also reported. The results are compared to calculations from viscous hydrodynamics and a multiphase transport (AMPT) model calculations. The comparisons to viscous hydrodynamic models demonstrate that the different order harmonic correlations respond differently to the initial conditions and the temperature dependence of the ratio of shear viscosity to entropy density (η/s). A small average value of η/s is favored independent of the specific choice of initial conditions in the models. The calculations with the AMPT initial conditions yield results closest to the measurements. Correlations among the magnitudes of v 2, v 3, and v 4 show moderate p T dependence in midcentral collisions. This might be an indication of possible viscous corrections to the equilibrium distribution at hadronic freeze-out, which might help to understand the possible contribution of bulk viscosity in the hadronic phase of the system. Lastly, together with existing measurements of individual flow harmonics, the presented results provide further constraints on the initial conditions and the transport properties of the system produced in heavy-ion collisions.« less

Systematic studies of correlations between different order flow harmonics in Pb-Pb collisions at s NN = 2.76 TeV

DOE PAGES

Acharya, S.; Adam, J.; Adamová, D.; ...

2018-02-12

The correlations between event-by-event fluctuations of anisotropic flow harmonic amplitudes have been measured in Pb-Pb collisions atmore » $$\\sqrt{s}$$$_ {NN}$$=2.76 TeV with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The results are reported in terms of multiparticle correlation observables dubbed symmetric cumulants. These observables are robust against biases originating from nonflow effects. The centrality dependence of correlations between the higher order harmonics (the quadrangular v 4 and pentagonal v 5 flow) and the lower order harmonics (the elliptic v 2 and triangular v 3 flow) is presented. The transverse momentum dependences of correlations between v 3 and v 2 and between v 4 and v 2 are also reported. The results are compared to calculations from viscous hydrodynamics and a multiphase transport (AMPT) model calculations. The comparisons to viscous hydrodynamic models demonstrate that the different order harmonic correlations respond differently to the initial conditions and the temperature dependence of the ratio of shear viscosity to entropy density (η/s). A small average value of η/s is favored independent of the specific choice of initial conditions in the models. The calculations with the AMPT initial conditions yield results closest to the measurements. Correlations among the magnitudes of v 2, v 3, and v 4 show moderate p T dependence in midcentral collisions. This might be an indication of possible viscous corrections to the equilibrium distribution at hadronic freeze-out, which might help to understand the possible contribution of bulk viscosity in the hadronic phase of the system. Lastly, together with existing measurements of individual flow harmonics, the presented results provide further constraints on the initial conditions and the transport properties of the system produced in heavy-ion collisions.« less

Evidence for deterministic chaos in aperiodic oscillations of acute lymphoblastic leukemia cells in long-term culture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambrou, George I.; Chatziioannou, Aristotelis; Vlahopoulos, Spiros; Moschovi, Maria; Chrousos, George P.

Biological systems are dynamic and possess properties that depend on two key elements: initial conditions and the response of the system over time. Conceptualizing this on tumor models will influence conclusions drawn with regard to disease initiation and progression. Alterations in initial conditions dynamically reshape the properties of proliferating tumor cells. The present work aims to test the hypothesis of Wolfrom et al., that proliferation shows evidence for deterministic chaos in a manner such that subtle differences in the initial conditions give rise to non-linear response behavior of the system. Their hypothesis, tested on adherent Fao rat hepatoma cells, provides evidence that these cells manifest aperiodic oscillations in their proliferation rate. We have tested this hypothesis with some modifications to the proposed experimental setup. We have used the acute lymphoblastic leukemia cell line CCRF-CEM, as it provides an excellent substrate for modeling proliferation dynamics. Measurements were taken at time points varying from 24h to 48h, extending the assayed populations beyond that of previous published reports that dealt with the complex dynamic behavior of animal cell populations. We conducted flow cytometry studies to examine the apoptotic and necrotic rate of the system, as well as DNA content changes of the cells over time. The cells exhibited a proliferation rate of nonlinear nature, as this rate presented oscillatory behavior. The obtained data have been fit in known models of growth, such as logistic and Gompertzian growth.

Quantifying the role of ocean initial conditions in decadal prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matei, D.; Pohlmann, H.; Müller, W.; Haak, H.; Jungclaus, J.; Marotzke, J.

2009-04-01

The forecast skill of decadal climate predictions is investigated using two different initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The results show promising skill up to decadal time scales particularly over the North Atlantic (see also Pohlmann et al. 2009). However, mismatches between the ocean climates of GECCO and the MPI-OM model may lead to inconsistencies in the representation of water masses. Therefore, we pursue an alternative approach to the representation of the observed North Atlantic climate for the period 1948-2007. Using the same MPI-OM ocean model as in the coupled system, we perform an ensemble of four NCEP integrations. The ensemble mean temperature and salinity anomalies are then nudged into the coupled model, followed by hindcast/forecast experiments. The model gives dynamically consistent three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields, thereby avoiding the problems of model drift that were encountered when the assimilation experiment was only driven by reconstructed SSTs (Keenlyside et al. 2008, Pohlmann et al. 2009). Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes, such as North Atlantic and Tropical Pacific climate, MOC variability, Subpolar Gyre variability.

Inverse analysis of turbidites by machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naruse, H.; Nakao, K.

2017-12-01

This study aims to propose a method to estimate paleo-hydraulic conditions of turbidity currents from ancient turbidites by using machine-learning technique. In this method, numerical simulation was repeated under various initial conditions, which produces a data set of characteristic features of turbidites. Then, this data set of turbidites is used for supervised training of a deep-learning neural network (NN). Quantities of characteristic features of turbidites in the training data set are given to input nodes of NN, and output nodes are expected to provide the estimates of initial condition of the turbidity current. The optimization of weight coefficients of NN is then conducted to reduce root-mean-square of the difference between the true conditions and the output values of NN. The empirical relationship with numerical results and the initial conditions is explored in this method, and the discovered relationship is used for inversion of turbidity currents. This machine learning can potentially produce NN that estimates paleo-hydraulic conditions from data of ancient turbidites. We produced a preliminary implementation of this methodology. A forward model based on 1D shallow-water equations with a correction of density-stratification effect was employed. This model calculates a behavior of a surge-like turbidity current transporting mixed-size sediment, and outputs spatial distribution of volume per unit area of each grain-size class on the uniform slope. Grain-size distribution was discretized 3 classes. Numerical simulation was repeated 1000 times, and thus 1000 beds of turbidites were used as the training data for NN that has 21000 input nodes and 5 output nodes with two hidden-layers. After the machine learning finished, independent simulations were conducted 200 times in order to evaluate the performance of NN. As a result of this test, the initial conditions of validation data were successfully reconstructed by NN. The estimated values show very small deviation from the true parameters. Comparing to previous inverse modeling of turbidity currents, our methodology is superior especially in the efficiency of computation. Also, our methodology has advantage in extensibility and applicability to various sediment transport processes such as pyroclastic flows or debris flows.

Evaluating the effect of smoking cessation treatment on a complex dynamical system.

PubMed

Bekiroglu, Korkut; Russell, Michael A; Lagoa, Constantino M; Lanza, Stephanie T; Piper, Megan E

2017-11-01

To understand the dynamic relations among tobacco withdrawal symptoms to inform the development of effective smoking cessation treatments. Dynamical system models from control engineering are introduced and utilized to evaluate complex treatment effects. We demonstrate how dynamical models can be used to examine how distinct withdrawal-related processes are related over time and how treatment influences these relations. Intensive longitudinal data from a randomized placebo-controlled smoking cessation trial (N=1504) are used to estimate a dynamical model of withdrawal-related processes including momentary craving, negative affect, quitting self-efficacy, and cessation fatigue for each of six treatment conditions (nicotine patch, nicotine lozenge, bupropion, patch + lozenge, bupropion + lozenge, and placebo). Estimation and simulation results show that (1) withdrawal measurements are interrelated over time, (2) nicotine patch + nicotine lozenge showed reduced cessation fatigue and enhanced self-efficacy in the long-term while bupropion + nicotine lozenge was more effective at reducing negative affect and craving, and (3) although nicotine patch + nicotine lozenge had a better initial effect on cessation fatigue and self-efficacy, nicotine lozenge had a stronger effect on negative affect and nicotine patch had a stronger impact on craving. This approach can be used to provide new evidence illustrating (a) the total impact of treatment conditions (via steady state values) and (b) the total initial impact (via rate of initial change values) on smoking-related outcomes for separate treatment conditions, noting that the conditions that produce the largest change may be different than the conditions that produce the fastest change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exponents of non-linear clustering in scale-free one-dimensional cosmological simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benhaiem, David; Joyce, Michael; Sicard, François

2013-03-01

One-dimensional versions of dissipationless cosmological N-body simulations have been shown to share many qualitative behaviours of the three-dimensional problem. Their interest lies in the fact that they can resolve a much greater range of time and length scales, and admit exact numerical integration. We use such models here to study how non-linear clustering depends on initial conditions and cosmology. More specifically, we consider a family of models which, like the three-dimensional Einstein-de Sitter (EdS) model, lead for power-law initial conditions to self-similar clustering characterized in the strongly non-linear regime by power-law behaviour of the two-point correlation function. We study how the corresponding exponent γ depends on the initial conditions, characterized by the exponent n of the power spectrum of initial fluctuations, and on a single parameter κ controlling the rate of expansion. The space of initial conditions/cosmology divides very clearly into two parts: (1) a region in which γ depends strongly on both n and κ and where it agrees very well with a simple generalization of the so-called stable clustering hypothesis in three dimensions; and (2) a region in which γ is more or less independent of both the spectrum and the expansion of the universe. The boundary in (n, κ) space dividing the `stable clustering' region from the `universal' region is very well approximated by a `critical' value of the predicted stable clustering exponent itself. We explain how this division of the (n, κ) space can be understood as a simple physical criterion which might indeed be expected to control the validity of the stable clustering hypothesis. We compare and contrast our findings to results in three dimensions, and discuss in particular the light they may throw on the question of `universality' of non-linear clustering in this context.

Technical note: Coordination and harmonization of the multi-scale, multi-model activities HTAP2, AQMEII3, and MICS-Asia3: simulations, emission inventories, boundary conditions, and model output formats.

PubMed

Galmarini, Stefano; Koffi, Brigitte; Solazzo, Efisio; Keating, Terry; Hogrefe, Christian; Schulz, Michael; Benedictow, Anna; Griesfeller, Jan Jurgen; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Carmichael, Greg; Fu, Joshua; Dentener, Frank

2017-01-31

We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012-2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). To improve model estimates of the impacts of intercontinental transport of air pollution on climate, ecosystems, and human health and to answer a set of policy-relevant questions, these three initiatives performed emission perturbation modelling experiments consistent across the global, hemispheric, and continental/regional scales. In all three initiatives, model results are extensively compared against monitoring data for a range of variables (meteorological, trace gas concentrations, and aerosol mass and composition) from different measurement platforms (ground measurements, vertical profiles, airborne measurements) collected from a number of sources. Approximately 10 to 25 modelling groups have contributed to each initiative, and model results have been managed centrally through three data hubs maintained by each initiative. Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives to address a common set of policy-relevant questions, this publication provides the motivation for the modelling activity, the rationale for specific choices made in the model experiments, and an overview of the organizational structures for both the modelling and the measurements used and analysed in a number of modelling studies in this special issue.

Technical note: Coordination and harmonization of the multi-scale, multi-model activities HTAP2, AQMEII3, and MICS-Asia3: simulations, emission inventories, boundary conditions, and model output formats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galmarini, Stefano; Koffi, Brigitte; Solazzo, Efisio; Keating, Terry; Hogrefe, Christian; Schulz, Michael; Benedictow, Anna; Griesfeller, Jan Jurgen; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Carmichael, Greg; Fu, Joshua; Dentener, Frank

2017-01-01

We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012-2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). To improve model estimates of the impacts of intercontinental transport of air pollution on climate, ecosystems, and human health and to answer a set of policy-relevant questions, these three initiatives performed emission perturbation modelling experiments consistent across the global, hemispheric, and continental/regional scales. In all three initiatives, model results are extensively compared against monitoring data for a range of variables (meteorological, trace gas concentrations, and aerosol mass and composition) from different measurement platforms (ground measurements, vertical profiles, airborne measurements) collected from a number of sources. Approximately 10 to 25 modelling groups have contributed to each initiative, and model results have been managed centrally through three data hubs maintained by each initiative. Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives to address a common set of policy-relevant questions, this publication provides the motivation for the modelling activity, the rationale for specific choices made in the model experiments, and an overview of the organizational structures for both the modelling and the measurements used and analysed in a number of modelling studies in this special issue.

Technical note: Coordination and harmonization of the multi-scale, multi-model activities HTAP2, AQMEII3, and MICS-Asia3: simulations, emission inventories, boundary conditions, and model output formats

PubMed Central

Galmarini, Stefano; Koffi, Brigitte; Solazzo, Efisio; Keating, Terry; Hogrefe, Christian; Schulz, Michael; Benedictow, Anna; Griesfeller, Jan Jurgen; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Carmichael, Greg; Fu, Joshua; Dentener, Frank

2018-01-01

We present an overview of the coordinated global numerical modelling experiments performed during 2012–2016 by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP), the regional experiments by the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) over Europe and North America, and the Model Intercomparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia). To improve model estimates of the impacts of intercontinental transport of air pollution on climate, ecosystems, and human health and to answer a set of policy-relevant questions, these three initiatives performed emission perturbation modelling experiments consistent across the global, hemispheric, and continental/regional scales. In all three initiatives, model results are extensively compared against monitoring data for a range of variables (meteorological, trace gas concentrations, and aerosol mass and composition) from different measurement platforms (ground measurements, vertical profiles, airborne measurements) collected from a number of sources. Approximately 10 to 25 modelling groups have contributed to each initiative, and model results have been managed centrally through three data hubs maintained by each initiative. Given the organizational complexity of bringing together these three initiatives to address a common set of policy-relevant questions, this publication provides the motivation for the modelling activity, the rationale for specific choices made in the model experiments, and an overview of the organizational structures for both the modelling and the measurements used and analysed in a number of modelling studies in this special issue. PMID:29541091

DISFRAC Version 2.0 Users Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Kristine B; Erickson, Marjorie A; Williams, Paul T

2013-01-01

DISFRAC is the implementation of a theoretical, multi-scale model for the prediction of fracture toughness in the ductile-to-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) region of ferritic steels. Empirically-derived models of the DBTT region cannot legitimately be extrapolated beyond the range of existing fracture toughness data. DISFRAC requires only tensile properties and microstructural information as input, and thus allows for a wider range of application than empirical, toughness data dependent models. DISFRAC is also a framework for investigating the roles of various microstructural and macroscopic effects on fracture behavior, including carbide particle sizes, grain sizes, strain rates, and material condition. DISFRAC s novelmore » approach is to assess the interaction effects of macroscopic conditions (geometry, loading conditions) with variable microstructural features on cleavage crack initiation and propagation. The model addresses all stages of the fracture process, from microcrack initiation within a carbide particle, to propagation of that crack through grains and across grain boundaries, finally to catastrophic failure of the material. The DISFRAC procedure repeatedly performs a deterministic analysis of microcrack initiation and propagation within a macroscopic crack plastic zone to calculate a critical fracture toughness value for each microstructural geometry set. The current version of DISFRAC, version 2.0, is a research code for developing and testing models related to cleavage fracture and transition toughness. The various models and computations have evolved significantly over the course of development and are expected to continue to evolve as testing and data collection continue. This document serves as a guide to the usage and theoretical foundations of DISFRAC v2.0. Feedback is welcomed and encouraged.« less

Feynman path integral application on deriving black-scholes diffusion equation for european option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, Briandhika; Purqon, Acep

2016-08-01

Path Integral is a method to transform a function from its initial condition to final condition through multiplying its initial condition with the transition probability function, known as propagator. At the early development, several studies focused to apply this method for solving problems only in Quantum Mechanics. Nevertheless, Path Integral could also apply to other subjects with some modifications in the propagator function. In this study, we investigate the application of Path Integral method in financial derivatives, stock options. Black-Scholes Model (Nobel 1997) was a beginning anchor in Option Pricing study. Though this model did not successfully predict option price perfectly, especially because its sensitivity for the major changing on market, Black-Scholes Model still is a legitimate equation in pricing an option. The derivation of Black-Scholes has a high difficulty level because it is a stochastic partial differential equation. Black-Scholes equation has a similar principle with Path Integral, where in Black-Scholes the share's initial price is transformed to its final price. The Black-Scholes propagator function then derived by introducing a modified Lagrange based on Black-Scholes equation. Furthermore, we study the correlation between path integral analytical solution and Monte-Carlo numeric solution to find the similarity between this two methods.

Further comments on sensitivities, parameter estimation, and sampling design in one-dimensional analysis of solute transport in porous media

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopman, Debra S.; Voss, Clifford I.

1988-01-01

Sensitivities of solute concentration to parameters associated with first-order chemical decay, boundary conditions, initial conditions, and multilayer transport are examined in one-dimensional analytical models of transient solute transport in porous media. A sensitivity is a change in solute concentration resulting from a change in a model parameter. Sensitivity analysis is important because minimum information required in regression on chemical data for the estimation of model parameters by regression is expressed in terms of sensitivities. Nonlinear regression models of solute transport were tested on sets of noiseless observations from known models that exceeded the minimum sensitivity information requirements. Results demonstrate that the regression models consistently converged to the correct parameters when the initial sets of parameter values substantially deviated from the correct parameters. On the basis of the sensitivity analysis, several statements may be made about design of sampling for parameter estimation for the models examined: (1) estimation of parameters associated with solute transport in the individual layers of a multilayer system is possible even when solute concentrations in the individual layers are mixed in an observation well; (2) when estimating parameters in a decaying upstream boundary condition, observations are best made late in the passage of the front near a time chosen by adding the inverse of an hypothesized value of the source decay parameter to the estimated mean travel time at a given downstream location; (3) estimation of a first-order chemical decay parameter requires observations to be made late in the passage of the front, preferably near a location corresponding to a travel time of √2 times the half-life of the solute; and (4) estimation of a parameter relating to spatial variability in an initial condition requires observations to be made early in time relative to passage of the solute front.

A grid of one-dimensional low-mass star formation collapse models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaytet, N.; Haugbølle, T.

2017-02-01

Context. Numerical simulations of star formation are becoming ever more sophisticated, incorporating new physical processes in increasingly realistic set-ups. These models are being compared to the latest observations through state-of-the-art synthetic renderings that trace the different chemical species present in the protostellar systems. The chemical evolution of the interstellar and protostellar matter is very topical, with more and more chemical databases and reaction solvers available online to the community. Aims: The current study was developed to provide a database of relatively simple numerical simulations of protostellar collapse as a template library for observations of cores and very young protostars, and for researchers who wish to test their chemical modelling under dynamic astrophysical conditions. It was also designed to identify statistical trends that may appear when running many models of the formation of low-mass stars by varying the initial conditions. Methods: A large set of 143 calculations of the gravitational collapse of an isolated sphere of gas with uniform temperature and a Bonnor-Ebert-like density profile was undertaken using a 1D fully implicit Lagrangian radiation hydrodynamics code. The parameter space covered initial masses from 0.2 to 8 M⊙, temperatures of 5-30 K, and radii 3000 ≤ R0 ≤ 30 000 AU. Results: A spread due to differing initial conditions and optical depths, was found in the thermal evolutionary tracks of the runs. Within less than an order of magnitude, all first and second Larson cores had masses and radii essentially independent of the initial conditions. Radial profiles of the gas density, velocity, and temperature were found to vary much more outside of the first core than inside. The time elapsed between the formation of the first and second cores was found to strongly depend on the first core mass accretion rate, and no first core in our grid of models lived for longer than 2000 years before the onset of the second collapse. Conclusions: The end product of a protostellar cloud collapse, the second Larson core, is at birth a canonical object with a mass and radius of about 3 MJ and 8 RJ, independent of its initial conditions. The evolution sequence which brings the gas to stellar densities can, however, proceed in a variety of scenarios, on different timescales or along different isentropes, but each story line can largely be predicted by the initial conditions. All the data from the simulations are publicly available. The figures and raw data for every simulation output can be found at this address: http://starformation.hpc.ku.dk/grid-of-protostars. Copies of the outputs, as well as Table C.1, are also available in the form of static electronic tables at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/598/A116

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Case, Jonathan L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Medlin, Jeffrey; Wood, Lance

2014-01-01

Convection-allowing numerical weather simula- tions have often been shown to produce convective storms that have significant sensitivity to choices of model physical parameterizations. Among the most important of these sensitivities are those related to cloud microphysics, but planetary boundary layer parameterizations also have a significant impact on the evolution of the convection. Aspects of the simulated convection that display sensitivity to these physics schemes include updraft size and intensity, simulated radar reflectivity, timing and placement of storm initi- ation and decay, total storm rainfall, and other storm features derived from storm structure and hydrometeor fields, such as predicted lightning flash rates. In addition to the basic parameters listed above, the simulated storms may also exhibit sensitivity to im- posed initial conditions, such as the fields of soil temper- ature and moisture, vegetation cover and health, and sea and lake water surface temperatures. Some of these sensitivities may rival those of the basic physics sensi- tivities mentioned earlier. These sensitivities have the potential to disrupt the accuracy of short-term forecast simulations of convective storms, and thereby pose sig- nificant difficulties for weather forecasters. To make a systematic study of the quantitative impacts of each of these sensitivities, a matrix of simulations has been performed using all combinations of eight separate microphysics schemes, three boundary layer schemes, and two sets of initial conditions. The first version of initial conditions consists of the default data from large-scale operational model fields, while the second features specialized higher- resolution soil conditions, vegetation conditions and water surface temperatures derived from datasets created at NASA's Short-term Prediction and Operational Research Tran- sition (SPoRT) Center at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, AL. Simulations as outlined above, each 48 in number, were conducted for five midsummer weakly sheared coastal convective events each at two sites, Mobile, AL (MOB) and Houston, TX (HGX). Of special interest to operational forecasters at MOB and HGX were accuracy of timing and placement of convective storm initiation, reflectivity magnitudes and coverage, rainfall and inferred lightning threat.

Electronic delay ignition module for single bridgewire Apollo standard initiator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ward, R. D.

1975-01-01

An engineering model and a qualification model of the EDIM were constructed and tested to Scout flight qualification criteria. The qualification model incorporated design improvements resulting from the engineering model tests. Compatibility with single bridgewire Apollo standard initiator (SBASI) was proven by test firing forty-five (45) SBASI's with worst case voltage and temperature conditions. The EDIM was successfully qualified for Scout flight application with no failures during testing of the qualification unit. Included is a method of implementing the EDIM into Scout vehicle hardware and the ground support equipment necessary to check out the system.

AQUATOX Frequently Asked Questions

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Capabilities, Installation, Source Code, Example Study Files, Biotic State Variables, Initial Conditions, Loadings, Volume, Sediments, Parameters, Libraries, Ecotoxicology, Waterbodies, Link to Watershed Models, Output, Metals, Troubleshooting

Assessment of the MACC reanalysis and its influence as chemical boundary conditions for regional air quality modeling in AQMEII-2

EPA Science Inventory

The Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) has now reached its second phase which is dedicated to the evaluation of online coupled chemistry-meteorology models. Sixteen modeling groups from Europe and five from North America have run regional air quality m...

Improved prediction of severe thunderstorms over the Indian Monsoon region using high-resolution soil moisture and temperature initialization

PubMed Central

Osuri, K. K.; Nadimpalli, R.; Mohanty, U. C.; Chen, F.; Rajeevan, M.; Niyogi, D.

2017-01-01

The hypothesis that realistic land conditions such as soil moisture/soil temperature (SM/ST) can significantly improve the modeling of mesoscale deep convection is tested over the Indian monsoon region (IMR). A high resolution (3 km foot print) SM/ST dataset prepared from a land data assimilation system, as part of a national monsoon mission project, showed close agreement with observations. Experiments are conducted with (LDAS) and without (CNTL) initialization of SM/ST dataset. Results highlight the significance of realistic land surface conditions on numerical prediction of initiation, movement and timing of severe thunderstorms as compared to that currently being initialized by climatological fields in CNTL run. Realistic land conditions improved mass flux, convective updrafts and diabatic heating in the boundary layer that contributed to low level positive potential vorticity. The LDAS run reproduced reflectivity echoes and associated rainfall bands more efficiently. Improper representation of surface conditions in CNTL run limit the evolution boundary layer processes and thereby failed to simulate convection at right time and place. These findings thus provide strong support to the role land conditions play in impacting the deep convection over the IMR. These findings also have direct implications for improving heavy rain forecasting over the IMR, by developing realistic land conditions. PMID:28128293

Modeling Type IIn Supernovae: Understanding How Shock Development Effects Light Curves Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De La Rosa, Janie

2016-06-01

Type IIn supernovae are produced when massive stars experience dramatic mass loss phases caused by opacity edges or violent explosions. Violent mass ejections occur quite often just prior to the collapse of the star. If the final episode happens just before collapse, the outward ejecta is sufficiently dense to alter the supernova light-curve, both by absorbing the initial supernova light and producing emission when the supernova shock hits the ejecta. Initially, the ejecta is driven by shock progating through the interior of the star, and eventually expands through the circumstellar medium, forming a cold dense shell. As the shock wave approaches the shell, there is an increase in UV and optical radiation at the location of the shock breakout. We have developed a suite of simple semi-analytical models in order to understand the relationship between our observations and the properties of the expanding SN ejecta. When we compare Type IIn observations to a set of modeled SNe, we begin to see the influence of initial explosion conditions on early UV light curve properties such as peak luminosities and decay rate.The fast rise and decay corresponds to the models representing a photosphere moving through the envelope, while the modeled light curves with a slower rise and decay rate are powered by 56Ni decay. However, in both of these cases, models that matched the luminosity were unable to match the low radii from the blackbody models. The effect of shock heating as the supernova material blasts through the circumstellar material can drastically alter the temperature and position of the photosphere. The new set of models redefine the initial modeling conditions to incorporate an outer shell-like structure, and include late-time shock heating from shocks produced as the supernova ejecta travels through the inhomogeneous circumstellar medium.

An Initial Study of the Sensitivity of Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) Spacing Sensitivity to Weather and Configuration Input Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riddick, Stephen E.; Hinton, David A.

2000-01-01

A study has been performed on a computer code modeling an aircraft wake vortex spacing system during final approach. This code represents an initial engineering model of a system to calculate reduced approach separation criteria needed to increase airport productivity. This report evaluates model sensitivity toward various weather conditions (crosswind, crosswind variance, turbulent kinetic energy, and thermal gradient), code configurations (approach corridor option, and wake demise definition), and post-processing techniques (rounding of provided spacing values, and controller time variance).

An asymptotically exact reduced PDE model for the magnetorotational instability: derivation and numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamroz, Ben; Julien, Keith; Knobloch, Edgar

2008-12-01

Taking advantage of disparate spatio-temporal scales relevant to astrophysics and laboratory experiments, we derive asymptotically exact reduced partial differential equation models for the magnetorotational instability. These models extend recent single-mode formulations leading to saturation in the presence of weak dissipation, and are characterized by a back-reaction on the imposed shear. Numerical simulations performed for a broad class of initial conditions indicate an initial phase of growth dominated by the optimal (fastest growing) magnetorotational instability fingering mode, followed by a vertical coarsening to a box-filling mode.

Intensive MHD-structures penetration in the middle atmosphere initiated in the ionospheric cusp under quiet geomagnetic conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mateev, L. N.; Nenovski, P. I.; Vellinov, P. I.

1989-01-01

In connection with the recently detected quasiperiodical magnetic disturbances in the ionospheric cusp, the penetration of compressional surface magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves through the middle atmosphere is modelled numerically. For the COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA) 72 model the respective energy density flux of the disturbances in the middle atmosphere is determined. On the basis of the developed model certain conclusions are reached about the height distribution of the structures (energy losses, currents, etc.) initiated by intensive magnetic cusp disturbances.

Influence of mobile air-conditioning on vehicle emissions and fuel consumption: a model approach for modern gasoline cars used in Europe.

PubMed

Weilenmann, Martin F; Vasic, Ana-Marija; Stettler, Peter; Novak, Philippe

2005-12-15

The influence of air-conditioning activity on the emissions and fuel consumption of passenger cars is an important issue, since fleet penetration and use of these systems have reached a high level. Apart from the MOBILE6 study in the United States, little data is available on the impact of air-conditioning devices (A/Cs). Since weather conditions and A/C technologies both differ from those in the U. S., a test series was designed for the European setting. A fleet of six modern gasoline passenger cars was tested in different weather conditions. Separate test series were carried out for the initial cooldown and for the stationary situation of keeping the interior of the vehicle cool. As assumed, CO2 emissions and fuel consumption rise with the thermal load. This also causes a notable rise in CO and hydrocarbons (HCs). Moreover, A/Cs do not stop automatically at low ambient temperatures; if necessary, they produce dry air to demist the windscreen. A model is proposed that shows a constant load for lower temperatures and a linear trend for higher temperatures. The initial cooldown tests highlight significant differences among cars but show that A/C operation for the initial cooling of an overheated passenger compartment does not result in any extra emissions for the fleet as a whole.

3-D bone models to improve treatment initiation among patients with osteoporosis: A randomised controlled pilot trial.

PubMed

Stephens, Melika H; Grey, Andrew; Fernandez, Justin; Kalluru, Ramanamma; Faasse, Kate; Horne, Anne; Petrie, Keith J

2016-01-01

To investigate the efficacy of 3-D printed bone models as a tool to facilitate initiation of bisphosphonate treatment among individuals who were newly diagnosed with osteoporosis. Fifty eight participants with estimated fracture risk above that at which guidelines recommend pharmacological intervention were randomised to receive either a standard physician interview or an interview augmented by the presentation of 3-D bone models. Participants' beliefs about osteoporosis and bisphosphonate treatment, initiation of bisphosphonate therapy assessed at two months using self-report and pharmacy dispensing data. Individuals in the 3-D bone model intervention condition were more emotionally affected by osteoporosis immediately after the interview (p = .04) and reported a greater understanding of osteoporosis at follow-up (p = .04), than the control group. While a greater proportion of the intervention group initiated an oral bisphosphonate regimen (alendronate) (52%) in comparison with the control group (21%), the overall initiation of medication for osteoporosis, including infusion (zoledronate), did not differ significantly (intervention group 62%, control group 45%, p = .19). The presentation of 3-D bone models during a medical consultation can modify cognitive and emotional representations relevant to treatment initiation among people with osteoporosis and might facilitate commencement of bisphosphonate treatment.

Quantifying Information Gain from Dynamic Downscaling Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Y.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2015-12-01

Dynamic climate downscaling experiments are designed to produce information at higher spatial and temporal resolutions. Such additional information is generated from the low-resolution initial and boundary conditions via the predictive power of the physical laws. However, errors and uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions can be propagated and even amplified to the downscaled simulations. Additionally, the limit of predictability in nonlinear dynamical systems will also damper the information gain, even if the initial and boundary conditions were error-free. Thus it is critical to quantitatively define and measure the amount of information increase from dynamic downscaling experiments, to better understand and appreciate their potentials and limitations. We present a scheme to objectively measure the information gain from such experiments. The scheme is based on information theory, and we argue that if a downscaling experiment is to exhibit value, it has to produce more information than what can be simply inferred from information sources already available. These information sources include the initial and boundary conditions, the coarse resolution model in which the higher-resolution models are embedded, and the same set of physical laws. These existing information sources define an "information threshold" as a function of the spatial and temporal resolution, and this threshold serves as a benchmark to quantify the information gain from the downscaling experiments, or any other approaches. For a downscaling experiment to shown any value, the information has to be above this threshold. A recent NASA-supported downscaling experiment is used as an example to illustrate the application of this scheme.

Uncertainty quantification methodologies development for stress corrosion cracking of canister welds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dingreville, Remi Philippe Michel; Bryan, Charles R.

2016-09-30

This letter report presents a probabilistic performance assessment model to evaluate the probability of canister failure (through-wall penetration) by SCC. The model first assesses whether environmental conditions for SCC – the presence of an aqueous film – are present at canister weld locations (where tensile stresses are likely to occur) on the canister surface. Geometry-specific storage system thermal models and weather data sets representative of U.S. spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage sites are implemented to evaluate location-specific canister surface temperature and relative humidity (RH). As the canister cools and aqueous conditions become possible, the occurrence of corrosion is evaluated. Corrosionmore » is modeled as a two-step process: first, pitting is initiated, and the extent and depth of pitting is a function of the chloride surface load and the environmental conditions (temperature and RH). Second, as corrosion penetration increases, the pit eventually transitions to a SCC crack, with crack initiation becoming more likely with increasing pit depth. Once pits convert to cracks, a crack growth model is implemented. The SCC growth model includes rate dependencies on both temperature and crack tip stress intensity factor, and crack growth only occurs in time steps when aqueous conditions are predicted. The model suggests that SCC is likely to occur over potential SNF interim storage intervals; however, this result is based on many modeling assumptions. Sensitivity analyses provide information on the model assumptions and parameter values that have the greatest impact on predicted storage canister performance, and provide guidance for further research to reduce uncertainties.« less

Simulated forecast error and climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere in numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boville, Byron A.; Baumhefner, David P.

1990-01-01

Using an NCAR community climate model, Version I, the forecast error growth and the climate drift resulting from the omission of the upper stratosphere are investigated. In the experiment, the control simulation is a seasonal integration of a medium horizontal general circulation model with 30 levels extending from the surface to the upper mesosphere, while the main experiment uses an identical model, except that only the bottom 15 levels (below 10 mb) are retained. It is shown that both random and systematic errors develop rapidly in the lower stratosphere with some local propagation into the troposphere in the 10-30-day time range. The random growth rate in the troposphere in the case of the altered upper boundary was found to be slightly faster than that for the initial-condition uncertainty alone. However, this is not likely to make a significant impact in operational forecast models, because the initial-condition uncertainty is very large.

Poloidal flux profile reconstruction from pointwise measurements via extended Kalman filtering in the DIII-D Tokamak

DOE PAGES

Wang, Hexiang; Barton, Justin E.; Schuster, Eugenio

2015-09-01

The accuracy of the internal states of a tokamak, which usually cannot be measured directly, is of crucial importance for feedback control of the plasma dynamics. A first-principles-driven plasma response model could provide an estimation of the internal states given the boundary conditions on the magnetic axis and at plasma boundary. However, the estimation would highly depend on initial conditions, which may not always be known, disturbances, and non-modeled dynamics. Here in this work, a closed-loop state observer for the poloidal magnetic flux is proposed based on a very limited set of real-time measurements by following an Extended Kalman Filteringmore » (EKF) approach. Comparisons between estimated and measured magnetic flux profiles are carried out for several discharges in the DIII-D tokamak. The experimental results illustrate the capability of the proposed observer in dealing with incorrect initial conditions and measurement noise.« less

Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data

EPA Science Inventory

Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions) as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism). Multi-model ensembles can improve the f...

Application of monotone integrated large eddy simulation to Rayleigh-Taylor mixing.

PubMed

Youngs, David L

2009-07-28

Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) instability occurs when a dense fluid rests on top of a light fluid in a gravitational field. It also occurs in an equivalent situation (in the absence of gravity) when an interface between fluids of different density is accelerated by a pressure gradient, e.g. in inertial confinement fusion implosions. Engineering models (Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes models) are needed to represent the effect of mixing in complex applications. However, large eddy simulation (LES) currently makes an essential contribution to understanding the mixing process and calibration or validation of the engineering models. In this paper, three cases are used to illustrate the current role of LES: (i) mixing at a plane boundary, (ii) break-up of a layer of dense fluid due to RT instability, and (iii) mixing in a simple spherical implosion. A monotone integrated LES approach is preferred because of the need to treat discontinuities in the flow, i.e. the initial density discontinuities or shock waves. Of particular interest is the influence of initial conditions and how this needs to be allowed for in engineering modelling. It is argued that loss of memory of the initial conditions is unlikely to occur in practical applications.

Crack initiation modeling of a directionally-solidified nickel-base superalloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, Ali Page

Combustion gas turbine components designed for application in electric power generation equipment are subject to periodic replacement as a result of cracking, damage, and mechanical property degeneration that render them unsafe for continued operation. In view of the significant costs associated with inspecting, servicing, and replacing damaged components, there has been much interest in developing models that not only predict service life, but also estimate the evolved microstructural state of the material. This thesis explains manifestations of microstructural damage mechanisms that facilitate fatigue crack nucleation in a newly-developed directionally-solidified (DS) Ni-base superalloy components exposed to elevated temperatures and high stresses. In this study, models were developed and validated for damage and life prediction using DS GTD-111 as the subject material. This material, proprietary to General Electric Energy, has a chemical composition and grain structure designed to withstand creep damage occurring in the first and second stage blades of gas-powered turbines. The service conditions in these components, which generally exceed 600°C, facilitate the onset of one or more damage mechanisms related to fatigue, creep, or environment. The study was divided into an empirical phase, which consisted of experimentally simulating service conditions in fatigue specimens, and a modeling phase, which entailed numerically simulating the stress-strain response of the material. Experiments have been carried out to simulate a variety of thermal, mechanical, and environmental operating conditions endured by longitudinally (L) and transversely (T) oriented DS GTD-111. Both in-phase and out-of-phase thermo-mechanical fatigue tests were conducted. In some cases, tests in extreme environments/temperatures were needed to isolate one or at most two of the mechanisms causing damage. Microstructural examinations were carried out via SEM and optical microscopy. A continuum crystal plasticity model was used to simulate the material behavior in the L and T orientations. The constitutive model was implemented in ABAQUS and a parameter estimation scheme was developed to obtain the material constants. A physically-based model was developed for correlating crack initiation life based on the experimental life data and predictions are made using the crack initiation model. Assuming a unique relationship between the damage fraction and cycle fraction with respect to cycles to crack initiation for each damage mode, the total crack initiation life has been represented in terms of the individual damage components (fatigue, creep-fatigue, creep, and oxidation-fatigue) observed at the end state of crack initiation.

Numerical Investigation of the Middle Atlantic Bight Shelfbreak Frontal Circulation Using a High-Resolution Ocean Hindcast Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-01

circulation from December 2003 to June 2008 . The model is driven by tidal harmonics, realistic atmospheric forcing, and dynamically consistent initial and open...important element of the regional circulation (He and Wilkin 2006). We applied the method of Mellor and Yamada (1982) to compute vertical turbulent...shelfbreak ROMS hindcast ran continuously from December 2003 through January 2008 . Initial conditions were taken from the MABGOM ROMS simulation on 1

Numerical Simulations and Observations of Surface Wave Fields Under an Extreme Tropical Cyclone

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

the initial condition is first generated using the Gener- alized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ) monthly ocean temperature and salinity climatology...soscale eddies in the Gulf of Mexico, but no real-time data assimilation is done in the Caribbean Sea. Instead, the GDEM monthly climatology data are used... GDEM monthly climatology to initialize the 3D tem- perature and current fields in our ocean model. Since the climatology data smooth out most of the

Evaluating Cloud Initialization in a Convection-permit NWP Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jia; Chen, Baode

2015-04-01

In general, to avoid "double counting precipitation" problem, in convection permit NWP models, it was a common practice to turn off convective parameterization. However, if there were not any cloud information in the initial conditions, the occurrence of precipitation could be delayed due to spin-up of cloud field or microphysical variables. In this study, we utilized the complex cloud analysis package from the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) to adjust the initial states of the model on water substance, such as cloud water, cloud ice, rain water, et al., that is, to initialize the microphysical variables (i.e., hydrometers), mainly based on radar reflectivity observations. Using the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model, numerical experiments with/without cloud initialization and convective parameterization were carried out at grey-zone resolutions (i.e. 1, 3, and 9 km). The results from the experiments without convective parameterization indicate that model ignition with radar reflectivity can significantly reduce spin-up time and accurately simulate precipitation at the initial time. In addition, it helps to improve location and intensity of predicted precipitation. With grey-zone resolutions (i.e. 1, 3, and 9 km), using the cumulus convective parameterization scheme (without radar data) cannot produce realistic precipitation at the early time. The issues related to microphysical parametrization associated with cloud initialization were also discussed.

Travelers' use of the WSDOT traffic conditions web site : customer satisfaction evaluation -- Metropolitan Model Deployment Initiative : Seattle, Washington

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-28

This report presents the results of an evaluation of public use of the Washington State Department of Transportation's (WSDOT) traffic conditions web site. This research was sponsored by the US Department of Transportation to assess customer satisfac...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deng, Yueying; Kruger, Albert A.

The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Statement of Work (Department of Energy Contract DE-AC27-01RV14136, Section C) requires the contractor to develop and use process models for flowsheet analyses and pre-operational planning assessments. The Dynamic (G2) Flowsheet is a discrete-time process model that enables the project to evaluate impacts to throughput from eventdriven activities such as pumping, sampling, storage, recycle, separation, and chemical reactions. The model is developed by the Process Engineering (PE) department, and is based on the Flowsheet Bases, Assumptions, and Requirements Document (24590-WTP-RPT-PT-02-005), commonly called the BARD. The terminologies of Dynamic (G2) Flowsheet and Dynamicmore » (G2) Model are interchangeable in this document. The foundation of this model is a dynamic material balance governed by prescribed initial conditions, boundary conditions, and operating logic. The dynamic material balance is achieved by tracking the storage and material flows within the plant as time increments. The initial conditions include a feed vector that represents the waste compositions and delivery sequence of the Tank Farm batches, and volumes and concentrations of solutions in process equipment before startup. The boundary conditions are the physical limits of the flowsheet design, such as piping, volumes, flowrates, operation efficiencies, and physical and chemical environments that impact separations, phase equilibriums, and reaction extents. The operating logic represents the rules and strategies of running the plant.« less

Comments on "Drill-string horizontal dynamics with uncertainty on the frictional force" by T.G. Ritto, M.R. Escalante, Rubens Sampaio, M.B. Rosales [J. Sound Vib. 332 (2013) 145-153

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zifeng

2016-12-01

This paper analyzes the mechanical and mathematical models in "Ritto et al. (2013) [1]". The results are that: (1) the mechanical model is obviously incorrect; (2) the mathematical model is not complete; (3) the differential equation is obviously incorrect; (4) the finite element equation is obviously not discretized from the corresponding mathematical model above, and is obviously incorrect. A mathematical model of dynamics should include the differential equations, the boundary conditions and the initial conditions.

Evolution of the Orszag-Tang vortex system in a compressible medium. II - Supersonic flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Picone, J. Michael; Dahlburg, Russell B.

1991-01-01

A study is presented on the effect of embedded supersonic flows and the resulting emerging shock waves on phenomena associated with MHD turbulence, including reconnection, the formation of current sheets and vortex structures, and the evolution of spatial and temporal correlations among physical variables. A two-dimensional model problem, the Orszag-Tang (1979) vortex system, is chosen, which involves decay from nonrandom initial conditions. The system is doubly periodic, and the initial conditions consist of single-mode solenoidal velocity and magnetic fields, each containing X points and O points. The initial mass density is flat, and the initial pressure fluctuations are incompressible, balancing the local forces for a magnetofluid of unit mass density. Results on the evolution of the local structure of the flow field, the global properties of the system, and spectral correlations are presented. The important dynamical properties and observational consequences of embedded supersonic regions and emerging shocks in the Orszag-Tang model of an MHD system undergoing reconnection are discussed. Conclusions are drawn regarding the effects of local supersonic regions on MHD turbulence.

Studying the effect of material initial conditions on drying induced stresses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heydari, M.; Khalili, K.; Ahmadi-Brooghani, S. Y.

2018-02-01

Cracking as a result of non-uniform deformation during drying is one of defects that may occur during drying and has to be dealt with by proper drying treatment. In the current study the effect of initial condition has been investigated on stress-strain induced by drying. The convective drying of a porous clay-like material has been simulated by using a mathematical model. Mass and heat transfer along with the mechanical behavior of the object being dried make the phenomenon a highly coupled problem. The coupling variables are the solid displacement, moisture content and temperature of the porous medium. A numerical solution is sought and employed to predict the influence of initial conditions of material on the drying induced stresses, the moisture content, and the temperature variations. Simulation results showed that increasing the initial temperature is an effective way to reduce the stresses induced by drying and to obtain products with good quality without significant change in drying curve and in comparison this is more effective than intermittent drying.

MAGMIX: a basic program to calculate viscosities of interacting magmas of differing composition, temperature, and water content

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frost, T.P.; Lindsay, J.R.

1988-01-01

MAGMIX is a BASIC program designed to predict viscosities at thermal equilibrium of interacting magmas of differing compositions, initial temperatures, crystallinities, crystal sizes, and water content for any mixing proportion between end members. From the viscosities of the end members at thermal equilibrium, it is possible to predict the styles of magma interaction expected for different initial conditions. The program is designed for modeling the type of magma interaction between hypersthenenormative magmas at upper crustal conditions. Utilization of the program to model magma interaction at pressures higher than 200 MPa would require modification of the program to account for the effects of pressure on heat of fusion and magma density. ?? 1988.

Some Results Relevant to Statistical Closures for Compressible Turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ristorcelli, J. R.

1998-01-01

For weakly compressible turbulent fluctuations there exists a small parameter, the square of the fluctuating Mach number, that allows an investigation using a perturbative treatment. The consequences of such a perturbative analysis in three different subject areas are described: 1) initial conditions in direct numerical simulations, 2) an explanation for the oscillations seen in the compressible pressure in the direct numerical simulations of homogeneous shear, and 3) for turbulence closures accounting for the compressibility of velocity fluctuations. Initial conditions consistent with small turbulent Mach number asymptotics are constructed. The importance of consistent initial conditions in the direct numerical simulation of compressible turbulence is dramatically illustrated: spurious oscillations associated with inconsistent initial conditions are avoided, and the fluctuating dilatational field is some two orders of magnitude smaller for a compressible isotropic turbulence. For the isotropic decay it is shown that the choice of initial conditions can change the scaling law for the compressible dissipation. A two-time expansion of the Navier-Stokes equations is used to distinguish compressible acoustic and compressible advective modes. A simple conceptual model for weakly compressible turbulence - a forced linear oscillator is described. It is shown that the evolution equations for the compressible portions of turbulence can be understood as a forced wave equation with refraction. Acoustic modes of the flow can be amplified by refraction and are able to manifest themselves in large fluctuations of the compressible pressure.

When and where does preferential flow matter - from observation to large scale modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiler, Markus; Leistert, Hannes; Steinbrich, Andreas

2017-04-01

Preferential flow can be of relevance in a wide range of soils and the interaction of different processes and factors are still difficult to assess. As most studies (including our own studies) focusing on the effect of preferential flow are based on relatively high precipitation rates, there is always the question how relevant preferential flow is under natural conditions, considering the site specific precipitation characteristics, the effect of the drying and wetting cycle on the initial soil water condition and shrinkage cracks, the site specific soil properties, soil structure and rock fragments, and the effect of plant roots and soil fauna (e.g. earthworm channels). In order to assess this question, we developed the distributed, process-based model RoGeR (Runoff Generation Research) to include a large number relevant features and processes of preferential flow in soils. The model was developed from a large number of process based research and experiments and includes preferential flow in roots, earthworm channels, along rock fragments and shrinkage cracks. We parameterized the uncalibrated model at a high spatial resolution of 5x5m for the whole state of Baden-Württemberg in Germany using LiDAR data, degree of sealing, landuse, soil properties and geology. As the model is an event based model, we derived typical event based precipitation characteristics based on rainfall duration, mean intensity and amount. Using the site-specific variability of initial soil moisture derived from a water balance model based on the same dataset, we simulated the infiltration and recharge amounts of all event classes derived from the event precipitation characteristics and initial soil moisture conditions. The analysis of the simulation results allowed us to extracts the relevance of preferential flow for infiltration and recharge considering all factors above. We could clearly see a strong effect of the soil properties and land-use, but also, particular for clay rich soils a strong effect of the initial conditions due to the development of soil cracks. Not too surprisingly, the relevance of preferential flow was much lower when considering the whole range of precipitation events as only considering events with a high rainfall intensity. Also, the influence on infiltration and recharge were different. Despite the model can still be improved in particular considering more realistic information about the spatial and temporal variability of preferential flow by soil fauna and plants, the model already shows under what situation we need to be very careful when predicting infiltration and recharge with models considering only longer time steps (daily) or only matrix flow.

Data Assimilation using Artificial Neural Networks for the global FSU atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cintra, Rosangela; Cocke, Steven; Campos Velho, Haroldo

2015-04-01

Data assimilation is the process by which measurements and model predictions are combined to obtain an accurate representation of the state of the modeled system. Uncertainty is the characteristic of the atmosphere, coupled with inevitable inadequacies in observations and computer models and increase errors in weather forecasts. Data assimilation is a technique to generate an initial condition to a weather or climate forecasts. This paper shows the results of a data assimilation technique using artificial neural networks (ANN) to obtain the initial condition to the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for the Florida State University in USA. The Local Ensemble Transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is implemented with Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The ANN data assimilation is made to emulate the initial condition from LETKF to run the FSUGSM. LETKF is a version of Kalman filter with Monte-Carlo ensembles of short-term forecasts to solve the data assimilation problem. The model FSUGSM is a multilevel (27 vertical levels) spectral primitive equation model with a vertical sigma coordinate. All variables are expanded horizontally in a truncated series of spherical harmonic functions (at resolution T63) and a transform technique is applied to calculate the physical processes in real space. The LETKF data assimilation experiments are based in synthetic observations data (surface pressure, absolute temperature, zonal component wind, meridional component wind and humidity). For the ANN data assimilation scheme, we use Multilayer Perceptron (MLP-DA) with supervised training algorithm where ANN receives input vectors with their corresponding response or target output from LETKF scheme. An automatic tool that finds the optimal representation to these ANNs configures the MLP-DA in this experiment. After the training process, the scheme MLP-DA is seen as a function of data assimilation where the inputs are observations and a short-range forecast to each model grid point. The ANNs were trained with data from each month of 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004. A hind-casting experiment for data assimilation cycle using MLP-DA was performed with synthetic observations for January 2005. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ANN technique for atmospheric data assimilation, since the analyses (initial conditions) have similar quality to LETKF analyses. The major advantage of using MLP-DA is the computational performance, which is faster than LETKF. The reduced computational cost allows the inclusion of greater number of observations and new data sources and the use of high resolution of models, which ensures the accuracy of analysis and of its weather prediction

Numerical optimization of composite hip endoprostheses under different loading conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blake, T. A.; Davy, D. T.; Saravanos, D. A.; Hopkins, D. A.

1992-01-01

The optimization of composite hip implants was investigated. Emphasis was placed on the effect of shape and material tailoring of the implant to improve the implant-bone interaction. A variety of loading conditions were investigated to better understand the relationship between loading and optimization outcome. Comparisons of the initial and optimal models with more complex 3D finite element models were performed. The results indicate that design improvements made using this method result in similar improvements in the 3D models. Although the optimization outcomes were significantly affected by the choice of loading conditions, certain trends were observed that were independent of the applied loading.

A new equilibrium torus solution and GRMHD initial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penna, Robert F.; Kulkarni, Akshay; Narayan, Ramesh

2013-11-01

Context. General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations are providing influential models for black hole spin measurements, gamma ray bursts, and supermassive black hole feedback. Many of these simulations use the same initial condition: a rotating torus of fluid in hydrostatic equilibrium. A persistent concern is that simulation results sometimes depend on arbitrary features of the initial torus. For example, the Bernoulli parameter (which is related to outflows), appears to be controlled by the Bernoulli parameter of the initial torus. Aims: In this paper, we give a new equilibrium torus solution and describe two applications for the future. First, it can be used as a more physical initial condition for GRMHD simulations than earlier torus solutions. Second, it can be used in conjunction with earlier torus solutions to isolate the simulation results that depend on initial conditions. Methods: We assume axisymmetry, an ideal gas equation of state, constant entropy, and ignore self-gravity. We fix an angular momentum distribution and solve the relativistic Euler equations in the Kerr metric. Results: The Bernoulli parameter, rotation rate, and geometrical thickness of the torus can be adjusted independently. Our torus tends to be more bound and have a larger radial extent than earlier torus solutions. Conclusions: While this paper was in preparation, several GRMHD simulations appeared based on our equilibrium torus. We believe it will continue to provide a more realistic starting point for future simulations.

Experimental design data for the biosynthesis of citric acid using Central Composite Design method.

PubMed

Kola, Anand Kishore; Mekala, Mallaiah; Goli, Venkat Reddy

2017-06-01

In the present investigation, we report that statistical design and optimization of significant variables for the microbial production of citric acid from sucrose in presence of filamentous fungi A. niger NCIM 705. Various combinations of experiments were designed with Central Composite Design (CCD) of Response Surface Methodology (RSM) for the production of citric acid as a function of six variables. The variables are; initial sucrose concentration, initial pH of medium, fermentation temperature, incubation time, stirrer rotational speed, and oxygen flow rate. From experimental data, a statistical model for this process has been developed. The optimum conditions reported in the present article are initial concentration of sucrose of 163.6 g/L, initial pH of medium 5.26, stirrer rotational speed of 247.78 rpm, incubation time of 8.18 days, fermentation temperature of 30.06 °C and flow rate of oxygen of 1.35 lpm. Under optimum conditions the predicted maximum citric acid is 86.42 g/L. The experimental validation carried out under the optimal values and reported citric acid to be 82.0 g/L. The model is able to represent the experimental data and the agreement between the model and experimental data is good.

Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayar, S.; Sehlinger, A.; Feldmann, H.; Kottmeier, C.

2015-12-01

The impact of soil initialization is investigated through perturbation simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The focus of the investigation is to assess the sensitivity of simulated extreme periods, dry and wet, to soil moisture initialization in different climatic regions over Europe and to establish the necessary spin up time within the framework of decadal predictions for these regions. Sensitivity experiments consisted of a reference simulation from 1968 to 1999 and 5 simulations from 1972 to 1983. The Effective Drought Index (EDI) is used to select and quantify drought status in the reference run to establish the simulation time period for the sensitivity experiments. Different soil initialization procedures are investigated. The sensitivity of the decadal predictions to soil moisture initial conditions is investigated through the analysis of water cycle components' (WCC) variability. In an episodic time scale the local effects of soil moisture on the boundary-layer and the propagated effects on the large-scale dynamics are analysed. The results show: (a) COSMO-CLM reproduces the observed features of the drought index. (b) Soil moisture initialization exerts a relevant impact on WCC, e.g., precipitation distribution and intensity. (c) Regional characteristics strongly impact the response of the WCC. Precipitation and evapotranspiration deviations are larger for humid regions. (d) The initial soil conditions (wet/dry), the regional characteristics (humid/dry) and the annual period (wet/dry) play a key role in the time that soil needs to restore quasi-equilibrium and the impact on the atmospheric conditions. Humid areas, and for all regions, a humid initialization, exhibit shorter spin up times, also soil reacts more sensitive when initialised during dry periods. (e) The initial soil perturbation may markedly modify atmospheric pressure field, wind circulation systems and atmospheric water vapour distribution affecting atmospheric stability conditions, thus modifying precipitation intensity and distribution even several years after the initialization.

Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trzeciak, Tomasz M.; Knippertz, Peter; Owen, Jennifer S. R.

2014-05-01

Despite the enormous advances made in climate change research, robust projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic stormtrack are not yet possible. In particular with respect to damaging windstorms, this incertitude bears enormous risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies have addressed the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data and found that there is large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such statistical evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms. Compensating effects between the two might conceal errors and suggest higher reliability than there really is. A possible way to separate influences of fast and slow processes in climate projections is through a "seamless" approach of hindcasting historical, severe storms with climate models started from predefined initial conditions and run in a numerical weather prediction mode on the time scale of several days. Such a cost-effective case-study approach, which draws from and expands on the concepts from the Transpose-AMIP initiative, has recently been undertaken in the SEAMSEW project at the University of Leeds funded by the AXA Research Fund. Key results from this work focusing on 20 historical storms and using different lead times and horizontal and vertical resolutions include: (a) Tracks are represented reasonably well by most hindcasts. (b) Sensitivity to vertical resolution is low. (c) There is a systematic underprediction of cyclone depth for a coarse resolution of T63, but surprisingly no systematic bias is found for higher-resolution runs using T127, showing that climate models are in fact able to represent the storm dynamics well, if given the correct initial conditions. Combined with a too low number of deep cyclones in many climate models, this points too an insufficient number of storm-prone initial conditions in free-running climate runs. This question will be addressed in future work.

Calibration strategies for a groundwater model in a highly dynamic alpine floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foglia, L.; Burlando, P.; Hill, Mary C.; Mehl, S.

2004-01-01

Most surface flows to the 20-km-long Maggia Valley in Southern Switzerland are impounded and the valley is being investigated to determine environmental flow requirements. The aim of the investigation is the devel-opment of a modelling framework that simulates the dynamics of the ground-water, hydrologic, and ecologic systems. Because of the multi-scale nature of the modelling framework, large-scale models are first developed to provide the boundary conditions for more detailed models of reaches that are of eco-logical importance. We describe here the initial (large-scale) groundwa-ter/surface water model and its calibration in relation to initial and boundary conditions. A MODFLOW-2000 model was constructed to simulate the inter-action of groundwater and surface water and was developed parsimoniously to avoid modelling artefacts and parameter inconsistencies. Model calibration includes two steady-state conditions, with and without recharge to the aquifer from the adjoining hillslopes. Parameters are defined to represent areal re-charge, hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer (up to 5 classes), and streambed hydraulic conductivity. Model performance was investigated following two system representation. The first representation assumed unknown flow input at the northern end of the groundwater domain and unknown lateral inflow. The second representation used simulations of the lateral flow obtained by means of a raster-based, physically oriented and continuous in time rainfall-runoff (R-R) model. Results based on these two representations are compared and discussed.

A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme U.S. Weather Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2016-01-01

This study examines the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 U.S. extreme weather using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5, (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The focus is on assessing the impact on precipitation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land conditions, and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. A key result is that the April record-breaking precipitation in the Ohio River valley was primarily the result of the unforced development of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mode of variability with unusually large amplitude, limiting the predictability of the precipitation in that region at 1-month leads. SST forcing (La Nia conditions) contributed to the broader continental-scale pattern of precipitation anomalies, producing drying in the southern plains and weak wet anomalies in the northeast, while the impact of realistic initial North American land conditions was to enhance precipitation in the upper Midwest and produce deficits in the Southeast. It was further found that 1) the 1 March atmospheric initial condition was the primary source of the ensemble mean precipitation response over the eastern United States in April (well beyond the limit of weather predictability), suggesting an influence on the initial state of the previous SST forcing and/or tropospheric/stratospheric coupling linked to an unusually persistent and cold polar vortex; and 2) stationary wave model experiments suggest that the SST-forced base state for April enhanced the amplitude of the NAO response compared to that of the climatological state, though the impact is modest and can be of either sign.

A candidate secular variation model for IGRF-12 based on Swarm data and inverse geodynamo modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fournier, Alexandre; Aubert, Julien; Thébault, Erwan

2015-05-01

In the context of the 12th release of the international geomagnetic reference field (IGRF), we present the methodology we followed to design a candidate secular variation model for years 2015-2020. An initial geomagnetic field model centered around 2014.3 is first constructed, based on Swarm magnetic measurements, for both the main field and its instantaneous secular variation. This initial model is next fed to an inverse geodynamo modelling framework in order to specify, for epoch 2014.3, the initial condition for the integration of a three-dimensional numerical dynamo model. The initialization phase combines the information contained in the initial model with that coming from the numerical dynamo model, in the form of three-dimensional multivariate statistics built from a numerical dynamo run unconstrained by data. We study the performance of this novel approach over two recent 5-year long intervals, 2005-2010 and 2009-2014. For a forecast horizon of 5 years, shorter than the large-scale secular acceleration time scale (˜10 years), we find that it is safer to neglect the flow acceleration and to assume that the flow determined by the initialization is steady. This steady flow is used to advance the three-dimensional induction equation forward in time, with the benefit of estimating the effects of magnetic diffusion. The result of this deterministic integration between 2015.0 and 2020.0 yields our candidate average secular variation model for that time frame, which is thus centered on 2017.5.

Local Sensitivity of Predicted CO 2 Injectivity and Plume Extent to Model Inputs for the FutureGen 2.0 site

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Z. Fred; White, Signe K.; Bonneville, Alain; ...

2014-12-31

Numerical simulations have been used for estimating CO2 injectivity, CO2 plume extent, pressure distribution, and Area of Review (AoR), and for the design of CO2 injection operations and monitoring network for the FutureGen project. The simulation results are affected by uncertainties associated with numerous input parameters, the conceptual model, initial and boundary conditions, and factors related to injection operations. Furthermore, the uncertainties in the simulation results also vary in space and time. The key need is to identify those uncertainties that critically impact the simulation results and quantify their impacts. We introduce an approach to determine the local sensitivity coefficientmore » (LSC), defined as the response of the output in percent, to rank the importance of model inputs on outputs. The uncertainty of an input with higher sensitivity has larger impacts on the output. The LSC is scalable by the error of an input parameter. The composite sensitivity of an output to a subset of inputs can be calculated by summing the individual LSC values. We propose a local sensitivity coefficient method and applied it to the FutureGen 2.0 Site in Morgan County, Illinois, USA, to investigate the sensitivity of input parameters and initial conditions. The conceptual model for the site consists of 31 layers, each of which has a unique set of input parameters. The sensitivity of 11 parameters for each layer and 7 inputs as initial conditions is then investigated. For CO2 injectivity and plume size, about half of the uncertainty is due to only 4 or 5 of the 348 inputs and 3/4 of the uncertainty is due to about 15 of the inputs. The initial conditions and the properties of the injection layer and its neighbour layers contribute to most of the sensitivity. Overall, the simulation outputs are very sensitive to only a small fraction of the inputs. However, the parameters that are important for controlling CO2 injectivity are not the same as those controlling the plume size. The three most sensitive inputs for injectivity were the horizontal permeability of Mt Simon 11 (the injection layer), the initial fracture-pressure gradient, and the residual aqueous saturation of Mt Simon 11, while those for the plume area were the initial salt concentration, the initial pressure, and the initial fracture-pressure gradient. The advantages of requiring only a single set of simulation results, scalability to the proper parameter errors, and easy calculation of the composite sensitivities make this approach very cost-effective for estimating AoR uncertainty and guiding cost-effective site characterization, injection well design, and monitoring network design for CO2 storage projects.« less

A convective forecast experiment of global tectonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coltice, Nicolas; Giering, Ralf

2016-04-01

Modeling jointly the deep convective motions in the mantle and the deformation of the lithosphere in a self-consistent way is a long-standing quest, for which significant advances have been made in the late 1990's. The complexities used in lithospheric models are making their way into the models of mantle convection (density variations, pseudo-plasticity, elasticity, free surface), hence global models of mantle motions can now display tectonics at their surface, evolving self-consistantly and showing some of the most important properties of plate tectonics on Earth (boundaries, types of boundaries, plate sizes, seafloor spreading properties, continental drift). The goal of this work is to experiment the forecasting power of such convection models with plate-like behavior, being here StagYY (Tackley, 2008). We generate initial conditions for a 3D spherical model in the past (50Ma and younger), using models with imposed plate velocities from 200Ma. By doing this, we introduce errors in the initial conditions that propagate afterwards. From these initial conditions, we run the convection models free, without imposing any sort of motion, letting the self-organization take place. We compare the forecast to the present-day plate velocities and plate boundaries. To investigate the optimal parameterization, and also have a flavor of the sensitivity of the results to rheological parameters, we compute the derivatives of the misfit of the surface velocities relative to the yield stress, the magnitude of the viscosity jump at 660km and the properties of a weak crust. These derivates are computed thanks to the tangent linear model of StagYY, that is built through the automatic differentiation software TAF (Giering and Kaminski, 2003). References Tackley, P. J., Modeling compressible mantle convection with large viscosity contrasts in a three-dimensional spherical shell using the yin-yang grid, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 171, 7-18 (2008). Giering, R., Kaminski, T., Applying TAF to generate efficient derivative code of Fortran 77-95 programs, PAMM 2, 54-57 (2003).

Minimum required capture radius in a coplanar model of the aerial combat problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breakwell, J. V.; Merz, A. W.

1977-01-01

Coplanar aerial combat is modeled with constant speeds and specified turn rates. The minimum capture radius which will always permit capture, regardless of the initial conditions, is calculated. This 'critical' capture radius is also the maximum range which the evader can guarantee indefinitely if the initial range, for example, is large. A composite barrier is constructed which gives the boundary, at any heading, of relative positions for which the capture radius is less than critical.

Global existence of strong solutions to the three- dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with special boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Douglas A.

We study the three-dimensional incompressible Navier- Stokes equations in a domain of the form W'×(0,e) . First, we assume W' is a C3 bounded domain and impose no-slip boundary conditions on 6W'×(0,e ) , and periodic conditions on W'×0,e . Physically, this models fluid flow through a pipe with cross-section W' where the inlet and outlet conditions are assumed periodic. Secondly, we assume W'=(0,l4) ×(0,l5) and impose periodic boundary conditions. This problem is of interest mathematically, and has been more widely considered than the pipe flow problem. For both sets of boundary conditions, we show that a strong solution exists for all time with conditions on the initial data and forcing. We start by recalling that if the forcing function and initial condition do not depend on x3, then a global strong solution exists which also does not depend on x3. Here (x1,x2,x3) ∈W≡W'×( 0,e) . With this observation as motivation, and using an additive decomposition introduced by Raugel and Sell, we split the initial data and forcing into a portion independent of x3 and a remainder. In our first result, we impose a smallness condition on the remainder and assume the forcing function is square- integrable in time as a function into L2(W) . With these assumptions, we prove a global existence theorem that does not require a smallness condition on e or on the portion of the initial condition and forcing independent of x3. However, these quantities do affect the allowable size of the remainder. For our second result, we assume the forcing is only bounded in time as a function into L2(W) . In this case, we need a smallness condition on the initial data, the forcing, and e to obtain global existence. The interesting observation is that the allowable sizes for the initial data and forcing grow as e-->0 . Thus, we obtain a `thin-domain' result as originally obtained by Raugel and Sell. In fact, our results allow the portion of the initial data and forcing independent of x3 to grow at a faster rate as e-->0 than previously obtained.

Model predictions of realgar precipitation by reaction of As(III) with synthetic mackinawite under anoxic conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallegos, T.J.; Han, Y.-S.; Hayes, K.F.

2008-01-01

This study investigates the removal of As(III) from solution using mackinawite, a nanoparticulate reduced iron sulfide. Mackinawite suspensions (0.1-40 g/L) effectively lower initial concentrations of 1.3 ?? 10 -5 M As(III) from pH 5-10, with maximum removal occurring under acidic conditions. Based on Eh measurements, it was found that the redox state of the system depended on the mackinawite solids concentration and pH. Higher initial mackinawite concentrations and alkaline pH resulted in a more reducing redox condition. Given this, the pH edge data were modeled thermodynamically using pe (-log[e-]) as a fitting parameter and linear pe-pH relationships within the range of measured Eh values as a function of pH and mackinawite concentration. The model predicts removal of As(III) from solution by precipitation of realgar with the formation of secondary oxidation products, greigite or a mixed-valence iron oxide phase, depending on pH. This study demonstrates that mackinawite is an effective sequestration agent for As(III) and highlights the importance of incorporating redox into models describing the As-Fe-S-H2O system. ?? 2008 American Chemical Society.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, Jesse D.; Chang, Grace; Jones, Craig

The numerical model, SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) , was used to simulate wave conditions in Kaneohe Bay, HI in order to determine the effects of wave energy converter ( WEC ) devices on the propagation of waves into shore. A nested SWAN model was validated then used to evaluate a range of initial wave conditions: significant wave heights (H s ) , peak periods (T p ) , and mean wave directions ( MWD) . Differences between wave height s in the presence and absence of WEC device s were assessed at locations in shore of the WEC array. Themore » maximum decrease in wave height due to the WEC s was predicted to be approximately 6% at 5 m and 10 m water depths. Th is occurred for model initiation parameters of H s = 3 m (for 5 m water depth) or 4 m (10 m water depth) , T p = 10 s, and MWD = 330deg . Subsequently, bottom orbital velocities were found to decrease by about 6%.« less

Modeling nearshore morphological evolution at seasonal scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walstra, D.-J.R.; Ruggiero, P.; Lesser, G.; Gelfenbaum, G.

2006-01-01

A process-based model is compared with field measurements to test and improve our ability to predict nearshore morphological change at seasonal time scales. The field experiment, along the dissipative beaches adjacent to Grays Harbor, Washington USA, successfully captured the transition between the high-energy erosive conditions of winter and the low-energy beach-building conditions typical of summer. The experiment documented shoreline progradation on the order of 20 m and as much as 175 m of onshore bar migration. Significant alongshore variability was observed in the morphological response of the sandbars over a 4 km reach of coast. A detailed sensitivity analysis suggests that the model results are more sensitive to adjusting the sediment transport associated with asymmetric oscillatory wave motions than to adjusting the transport due to mean currents. Initial results suggest that alongshore variations in the initial bathymetry are partially responsible for the observed alongshore variable morphological response during the experiment. Copyright ASCE 2006.

Improving High-resolution Weather Forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with Upgraded Kain-Fritsch Cumulus Scheme

EPA Science Inventory

High-resolution weather forecasting is affected by many aspects, i.e. model initial conditions, subgrid-scale cumulus convection and cloud microphysics schemes. Recent 12km grid studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have identified the importance of inco...

Initialization of soil-water content in regional-scale atmospheric prediction models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Christopher B.; Lakhtakia, Mercedes; Capehart, William J.; Carlson, Toby N.

1994-01-01

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the feasibility of determining the soil-water content fields required as initial conditions for land surface components within atmospheric prediction models. This is done using a model of the hydrologic balance and conventional meteorological observations, land cover, and soils information. A discussion is presented of the subgrid-scale effects, the integration time, and the choice of vegetation type on the soil-water content patterns. Finally, comparisons are made between two The Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model simulations, one using climatological fields and the other one using the soil-moisture fields produced by this new method.

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE PAGES

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2017-06-05

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Comparison of maximum runup through analytical and numerical approaches for different fault parameters estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanoglu, U.; Wronna, M.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M. A.

2017-12-01

The one-dimensional analytical runup theory in combination with near shore synthetic waveforms is a promising tool for tsunami rapid early warning systems. Its application in realistic cases with complex bathymetry and initial wave condition from inverse modelling have shown that maximum runup values can be estimated reasonably well. In this study we generate a simplistic bathymetry domains which resemble realistic near-shore features. We investigate the accuracy of the analytical runup formulae to the variation of fault source parameters and near-shore bathymetric features. To do this we systematically vary the fault plane parameters to compute the initial tsunami wave condition. Subsequently, we use the initial conditions to run the numerical tsunami model using coupled system of four nested grids and compare the results to the analytical estimates. Variation of the dip angle of the fault plane showed that analytical estimates have less than 10% difference for angles 5-45 degrees in a simple bathymetric domain. These results shows that the use of analytical formulae for fast run up estimates constitutes a very promising approach in a simple bathymetric domain and might be implemented in Hazard Mapping and Early Warning.

Shared Processing of Language and Music.

PubMed

Atherton, Ryan P; Chrobak, Quin M; Rauscher, Frances H; Karst, Aaron T; Hanson, Matt D; Steinert, Steven W; Bowe, Kyra L

2018-01-01

The present study sought to explore whether musical information is processed by the phonological loop component of the working memory model of immediate memory. Original instantiations of this model primarily focused on the processing of linguistic information. However, the model was less clear about how acoustic information lacking phonological qualities is actively processed. Although previous research has generally supported shared processing of phonological and musical information, these studies were limited as a result of a number of methodological concerns (e.g., the use of simple tones as musical stimuli). In order to further investigate this issue, an auditory interference task was employed. Specifically, participants heard an initial stimulus (musical or linguistic) followed by an intervening stimulus (musical, linguistic, or silence) and were then asked to indicate whether a final test stimulus was the same as or different from the initial stimulus. Results indicated that mismatched interference conditions (i.e., musical - linguistic; linguistic - musical) resulted in greater interference than silence conditions, with matched interference conditions producing the greatest interference. Overall, these results suggest that processing of linguistic and musical information draws on at least some of the same cognitive resources.

Application of Viscoelastic Fracture Model and Non-uniform Crack Initiation at Clinically Relevant Notches in Crosslinked UHMWPE

PubMed Central

Sirimamilla, P. Abhiram; Furmanski, Jevan; Rimnac, Clare M.

2012-01-01

The mechanism of crack initiation from a clinically relevant notch is not well-understood for crosslinked ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) used in total joint replacement components. Static mode driving forces, rather than the cyclic mode conditions typically associated with fatigue processes, have been shown to drive crack propagation in this material. Thus, in this study, crack initiation in a notched specimen under a static load was investigated. A video microscope was used to monitor the notch surface of the specimen and crack initiation time was measured from the video by identifying the onset of crack initiation at the notch. Crack initiation was considered using a viscoelastic fracture theory. It was found that the mechanism of crack initiation involved both single layer and a distributed multi-layer phenomenon and that multi-layer crack initiation delayed the crack initiation time for all loading conditions examined. The findings of this study support that the viscoelastic fracture theory governs fracture mechanics in crosslinked UHMWPE. The findings also support that crack initiation from a notch in UHMWPE is a more complex phenomenon than treated by traditional fracture theories for polymers. PMID:23127638

One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

2013-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of future climate mitigation strategies. We find substantial effects on key integrated assessment projections including the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology.

No Future in the Past? The role of initial topography on landform evolution model predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancock, G. R.; Coulthard, T. J.; Lowry, J.

2014-12-01

Our understanding of earth surface processes is based on long-term empirical understandings, short-term field measurements as well as numerical models. In particular, numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs) have been developed which have the capability to capture a range of both surface (erosion and deposition), tectonics, as well as near surface or critical zone processes (i.e. pedogenesis). These models have a range of applications for understanding both surface and whole of landscape dynamics through to more applied situations such as degraded site rehabilitation. LEMs are now at the stage of development where if calibrated, can provide some level of reliability. However, these models are largely calibrated based on parameters determined from present surface conditions which are the product of much longer-term geology-soil-climate-vegetation interactions. Here, we assess the effect of the initial landscape dimensions and associated error as well as parameterisation for a potential post-mining landform design. The results demonstrate that subtle surface changes in the initial DEM as well as parameterisation can have a large impact on landscape behaviour, erosion depth and sediment discharge. For example, the predicted sediment output from LEM's is shown to be highly variable even with very subtle changes in initial surface conditions. This has two important implications in that decadal time scale field data is needed to (a) better parameterise models and (b) evaluate their predictions. We question how a LEM using parameters derived from field plots can firstly be employed to examine long-term landscape evolution. Secondly, the potential range of outcomes is examined based on estimated temporal parameter change and thirdly, the need for more detailed and rigorous field data for calibration and validation of these models is discussed.

Effects of eddy initial conditions on nonlinear forcing of planetary scale waves by amplifying baroclinic eddies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Richard E.

1986-01-01

The previous study of Young and Villere concerning growth of planetary scale waves forced by wave-wave interactions of amplifying intermediate scale baroclinic eddies is extended to investigate effects of different eddy initial conditions. A global, spectral, primitive equation model is used for the calculations. For every set of eddy initial conditions considered, growth rates of planetary modes are considerably greater than growth rates computed from linear instability theory for a fixed zonally independent basic state. However, values of growth rates ranged over a factor of 3 depending on the particular set of eddy initial conditions used. Nonlinear forcing of planetary modes via wave-wave coupling becomes more important than baroclinic growth on the basic state at small values of the intermediate-scale modal amplitudes. The relative importance of direct transfer of kinetic energy from intermediate scales of motion to a planetary mode, compared to baroclinic conversion of available potential energy to kinetic energy within that planetary mode, depends on the individual case. In all cases, however, the transfer of either kinetic or available potential energy to the planetary modes was accomplished principally by wave-wave transfer from intermediate scale eddies, rather than from the zonally averaged state. The zonal wavenumber 2 planetary mode was prominent in all solutions, even in those for which eddy initial conditions were such that a different planetary mode was selectively forced at the start. General characteristics of the structural evolution of the planetary wave components of total heat and momentum flux, and modal structures themselves, were relatively insensitive to variations in eddy initial conditions, even though quantitative details varied from case to case.

Option volatility and the acceleration Lagrangian

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Cao, Yang

2014-01-01

This paper develops a volatility formula for option on an asset from an acceleration Lagrangian model and the formula is calibrated with market data. The Black-Scholes model is a simpler case that has a velocity dependent Lagrangian. The acceleration Lagrangian is defined, and the classical solution of the system in Euclidean time is solved by choosing proper boundary conditions. The conditional probability distribution of final position given the initial position is obtained from the transition amplitude. The volatility is the standard deviation of the conditional probability distribution. Using the conditional probability and the path integral method, the martingale condition is applied, and one of the parameters in the Lagrangian is fixed. The call option price is obtained using the conditional probability and the path integral method.

An imputed forest composition map for New England screened by species range boundaries

Treesearch

Matthew J. Duveneck; Jonathan R. Thompson; B. Tyler Wilson

2015-01-01

Initializing forest landscape models (FLMs) to simulate changes in tree species composition requires accurate fine-scale forest attribute information mapped continuously over large areas. Nearest-neighbor imputation maps, maps developed from multivariate imputation of field plots, have high potential for use as the initial condition within FLMs, but the tendency for...

Quantifying Wrinkle Features of Thin Membrane Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, Mindy B.; Iwasa, Takashi; Naton, M. C.

2004-01-01

For future micro-systems utilizing membrane based structures, quantified predictions of wrinkling behavior in terms of amplitude, angle and wavelength are needed to optimize the efficiency and integrity of such structures, as well as their associated control systems. For numerical analyses performed in the past, limitations on the accuracy of membrane distortion simulations have often been related to the assumptions made. This work demonstrates that critical assumptions include: effects of gravity, supposed initial or boundary conditions, and the type of element used to model the membrane. In this work, a 0.2 m x 02 m membrane is treated as a structural material with non-negligible bending stiffness. Finite element modeling is used to simulate wrinkling behavior due to a constant applied in-plane shear load. Membrane thickness, gravity effects, and initial imperfections with respect to flatness were varied in numerous nonlinear analysis cases. Significant findings include notable variations in wrinkle modes for thickness in the range of 50 microns to 1000 microns, which also depend on the presence of an applied gravity field. However, it is revealed that relationships between overall strain energy density and thickness for cases with differing initial conditions are independent of assumed initial conditions. In addition, analysis results indicate that the relationship between wrinkle amplitude scale (W/t) and structural scale (L/t) is independent of the nonlinear relationship between thickness and stiffness.

Nuclear modification factor in an anisotropic quark-gluon plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Mahatsab; Bhattacharya, Lusaka; Roy, Pradip

2011-10-01

We calculate the nuclear modification factor (RAA) of light hadrons by taking into account the initial state momentum anisotropy of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) expected to be formed in relativistic heavy ion collisions. Such an anisotropy can result from the initial rapid longitudinal expansion of the matter. A phenomenological model for the space-time evolution of the anisotropic QGP is used to obtain the time dependence of the anisotropy parameter ξ and the hard momentum scale, phard. The result is then compared with the PHENIX experimental data to constrain the isotropization time scale, τiso for fixed initial conditions (FIC). It is shown that the extracted value of τiso lies in the range 0.5⩽τiso⩽1.5. However, using a fixed final multiplicity (FFM) condition does not lead to any firm conclusion about the extraction of the isotropization time. The present calculation is also extended to contrast with the recent measurement of nuclear modification factor by the ALICE collaboration at s=2.76 TeV. It is argued that in the present approach, the extraction of τiso at this energy is uncertain and, therefore, refinement of the model is necessary. The sensitivity of the results on the initial conditions has been discussed. We also present the nuclear modification factor at Large Hadron Collider (LHC) energies with s=5.5 TeV.

Mathematical modelling of bone adaptation of the metacarpal subchondral bone in racehorses.

PubMed

Hitchens, Peta L; Pivonka, Peter; Malekipour, Fatemeh; Whitton, R Chris

2018-06-01

In Thoroughbred racehorses, fractures of the distal limb are commonly catastrophic. Most of these fractures occur due to the accumulation of fatigue damage from repetitive loading, as evidenced by microdamage at the predilection sites for fracture. Adaptation of the bone in response to training loads is important for fatigue resistance. In order to better understand the mechanism of subchondral bone adaptation to its loading environment, we utilised a square root function defining the relationship between bone volume fraction [Formula: see text] and specific surface [Formula: see text] of the subchondral bone of the lateral condyles of the third metacarpal bone (MCIII) of the racehorse, and using this equation, developed a mathematical model of subchondral bone that adapts to loading conditions observed in vivo. The model is expressed as an ordinary differential equation incorporating a formation rate that is dependent on strain energy density. The loading conditions applied to a selected subchondral region, i.e. volume of interest, were estimated based on joint contact forces sustained by racehorses in training. For each of the initial conditions of [Formula: see text] we found no difference between subsequent homoeostatic [Formula: see text] at any given loading condition, but the time to reach equilibrium differed by initial [Formula: see text] and loading condition. We found that the observed values for [Formula: see text] from the mathematical model output were a good approximation to the existing data for racehorses in training or at rest. This model provides the basis for understanding the effect of changes to training strategies that may reduce the risk of racehorse injury.

Do initial conditions matter? A comparison of model climatologies generated from different initial states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Cohen, C.; Wu, P.

1981-01-01

A coarse mesh (8 by 10) 7 layer global climate model was used to compute 15 months of meteorological history in two perpetual January experiments on a water planet (without continents) with a zonally symmetric climatological January sea surface temperature field. In the first of the two water planet experiments the initial atmospheric state was a set of zonal mean values of specific humidity, temperature, and wind at each latitude. In the second experiment the model was initialized with globally uniform mean values of specific humidity and temperature on each sigma level surface, constant surface pressure (1010 mb), and zero wind everywhere. A comparison was made of the mean January climatic states generated by the two water planet experiments. The first two months of each 15 January run were discarded, and 13 month averages were computed from months 3 through 15.

A Transient Initialization Routine of the Community Ice Sheet Model for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Laan, Larissa; van den Broeke, Michiel; Noël, Brice; van de Wal, Roderik

2017-04-01

The Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is to be applied in future simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet under a range of climate change scenarios, determining the sensitivity of the ice sheet to individual climatic forcings. In order to achieve reliable results regarding ice sheet stability and assess the probability of future occurrence of tipping points, a realistic initial ice sheet geometry is essential. The current work describes and evaluates the development of a transient initialization routine, using NGRIP 18O isotope data to create a temperature anomaly field. Based on the latter, surface mass balance components runoff and precipitation are perturbed for the past 125k years. The precipitation and runoff fields originate from a downscaled 1 km resolution version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 for the period 1961-1990. The result of the initialization routine is a present-day ice sheet with a transient memory of the last glacial-interglacial cycle, which will serve as the future runs' initial condition.

Initial subjective reward to alcohol in Sprague-Dawley rats.

PubMed

Nentwig, Todd B; Myers, Kevin P; Grisel, Judith E

2017-02-01

Initial subjective response to the rewarding properties of alcohol predicts voluntary consumption and the risk for alcohol use disorders. We assessed the initial subjective reward to alcohol in rats using a single exposure conditioned place preference (SE-CPP) paradigm. Sprague-Dawley rats demonstrate preference for a context paired with a single systemic injection of ethanol (1.0 g/kg, delivered intraperitoneally). However, expression of SE-CPP in males depended on pairing ethanol with the first exposure of two (ethanol; saline) to the conditioning apparatus and procedures, while conditioning day did not appreciably affect SE-CPP in females, consistent with the view that females experience heightened addiction vulnerability. This model offers researchers a high throughput assay for investigating factors that influence alcohol reward and may point the way toward more effective prevention and treatment efforts. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influences of operational practices on municipal solid waste landfill storage capacity.

PubMed

Li, Yu-Chao; Liu, Hai-Long; Cleall, Peter John; Ke, Han; Bian, Xue-Cheng

2013-03-01

The quantitative effects of three operational factors, that is initial compaction, decomposition condition and leachate level, on municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill settlement and storage capacity are investigated in this article via consideration of a hypothetical case. The implemented model for calculating landfill compression displacement is able to consider decreases in compressibility induced by biological decomposition and load dependence of decomposition compression for the MSW. According to the investigation, a significant increase in storage capacity can be achieved by intensive initial compaction, adjustment of decomposition condition and lowering of leachate levels. The quantitative investigation presented aims to encourage landfill operators to improve management to enhance storage capacity. Furthermore, improving initial compaction and creating a preferential decomposition condition can also significantly reduce operational and post-closure settlements, respectively, which helps protect leachate and gas management infrastructure and monitoring equipment in modern landfills.

A two-dimensional air-to-air combat game - Toward an air-combat advisory system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neuman, Frank

1987-01-01

Air-to-air combat is modeled as a discrete differential game, and by constraining the game to searching for the best guidance laws from the sets of those considered for each opponent, feedback and outcome charts are obtained which can be used to turn one of the automatic opponents into an intelligent opponent against a human pilot. A one-on-one two-dimensional fully automatic, or manned versus automatic, air-to-air combat game has been designed which includes both attack and evasion alternatives for both aircraft. Guidance law selection occurs by flooding the initial-condition space with four simulated fights for each initial condition, depicting the various attack/evasion strategies for the two opponents, and recording the outcomes. For each initial condition, the minimax method from differential games is employed to determine the best choice from the available strategies.

Next generation dynamic global vegetation models: learning from community ecology (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheiter, S.; Higgins, S.; Langan, L.

2013-12-01

Dynamic global vegetation models are a powerful tool to project past, current and future vegetation patterns and the associated biogeochemical cycles. However, most models are limited by their representation of vegetation by using static and pre-defined plant functional types and by their simplistic representation of competition. We discuss how concepts from community assembly theory and coexistence theory can help to improve dynamic vegetation models. We present a trait- and individual-based dynamic vegetation model, the aDGVM2, that allows individual plants to adopt a unique combination of trait values. These traits define how individual plants grow, compete and reproduce under the given biotic and abiotic conditions. A genetic optimization algorithm is used to simulate trait inheritance and reproductive isolation between individuals. These model properties allow the assembly of plant communities that are adapted to biotic and abiotic conditions. We show (1) that the aDGVM2 can simulate coarse vegetation patterns in Africa, (2) that changes in the environmental conditions and disturbances strongly influence trait diversity and the assembled plant communities by influencing traits such as leaf phenology and carbon allocation patterns of individual plants and (3) that communities do not necessarily return to the initial state when environmental conditions return to the initial state. The aDGVM2 deals with functional diversity and competition fundamentally differently from current models and allows novel insights as to how vegetation may respond to climate change. We believe that the aDGVM2 approach could foster collaborations between research communities that focus on functional plant ecology, plant competition, plant physiology and Earth system science.

Economic Theory and Management Games II.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zernik, Wolfgang

1988-01-01

Description of management games continues a previous article's discussion of how mathematical modeling and microeconomic concepts can be used by players. Highlights include an initial condition simulating a profit-maximizing monopoly; simulating the transition from monopoly to oligopoly; and how mathematical properties of the model affect final…

A Comparison of the Forecast Skills among Three Numerical Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, D.; Reddy, S. R.; White, L. J.

2003-12-01

Three numerical weather forecast models, MM5, COAMPS and WRF, operating with a joint effort of NOAA HU-NCAS and Jackson State University (JSU) during summer 2003 have been chosen to study their forecast skills against observations. The models forecast over the same region with the same initialization, boundary condition, forecast length and spatial resolution. AVN global dataset have been ingested as initial conditions. Grib resolution of 27 km is chosen to represent the current mesoscale model. The forecasts with the length of 36h are performed to output the result with 12h interval. The key parameters used to evaluate the forecast skill include 12h accumulated precipitation, sea level pressure, wind, surface temperature and dew point. Precipitation is evaluated statistically using conventional skill scores, Threat Score (TS) and Bias Score (BS), for different threshold values based on 12h rainfall observations whereas other statistical methods such as Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error(MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are applied to other forecast parameters.

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

2018-03-01

Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

Active influence in dynamical models of structural balance in social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summers, Tyler H.; Shames, Iman

2013-07-01

We consider a nonlinear dynamical system on a signed graph, which can be interpreted as a mathematical model of social networks in which the links can have both positive and negative connotations. In accordance with a concept from social psychology called structural balance, the negative links play a key role in both the structure and dynamics of the network. Recent research has shown that in a nonlinear dynamical system modeling the time evolution of “friendliness levels” in the network, two opposing factions emerge from almost any initial condition. Here we study active external influence in this dynamical model and show that any agent in the network can achieve any desired structurally balanced state from any initial condition by perturbing its own local friendliness levels. Based on this result, we also introduce a new network centrality measure for signed networks. The results are illustrated in an international-relations network using United Nations voting record data from 1946 to 2008 to estimate friendliness levels amongst various countries.

Modeling of the Bosphorus exchange flow dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sözer, Adil; Özsoy, Emin

2017-04-01

The fundamental hydrodynamic behavior of the Bosphorus Strait is investigated through a numerical modeling study using alternative configurations of idealized or realistic geometry. Strait geometry and basin stratification conditions allow for hydraulic controls and are ideally suited to support the maximal-exchange regime, which determines the rate of exchange of waters originating from the adjacent Black and Mediterranean Seas for a given net transport. Steady-state hydraulic controls are demonstrated by densimetric Froude number calculations under layered flow approximations when corrections are applied to account for high velocity shears typically observed in the Bosphorus. Analyses of the model results reveal many observed features of the strait, including critical transitions at hydraulic controls and dissipation by turbulence and hydraulic jumps. It is found that the solution depends on initialization, especially with respect to the basin initial conditions. Significant differences between the controlled maximal-exchange and drowned solutions suggest that a detailed modeling implementation involving coupling with adjacent basins needs to take full account of the Bosphorus Strait in terms of the physical processes to be resolved.

Source-sector contributions to European ozone and fine PM in 2010 using AQMEII modeling data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamchandani, Prakash; Long, Yoann; Pirovano, Guido; Balzarini, Alessandra; Yarwood, Greg

2017-05-01

Source apportionment modeling provides valuable information on the contributions of different source sectors and/or source regions to ozone (O3) or fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. This information can be useful in designing air quality management strategies and in understanding the potential benefits of reducing emissions from a particular source category. The Comprehensive Air quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) offers unique source attribution tools, called the Ozone and Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (OSAT/PSAT), which track source contributions. We present results from a CAMx source attribution modeling study for a summer month and a winter month using a recently evaluated European CAMx modeling database developed for Phase 3 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The contributions of several source sectors (including model boundary conditions of chemical species representing transport of emissions from outside the modeling domain as well as initial conditions of these species) to O3 or PM2.5 concentrations in Europe were calculated using OSAT and PSAT, respectively. A 1-week spin-up period was used to reduce the influence of initial conditions. Evaluation focused on 16 major cities and on identifying source sectors that contributed above 5 %. Boundary conditions have a large impact on summer and winter ozone in Europe and on summer PM2.5, but they are only a minor contributor to winter PM2.5. Biogenic emissions are important for summer ozone and PM2.5. The important anthropogenic sectors for summer ozone are transportation (both on-road and non-road), energy production and conversion, and industry. In two of the 16 cities, solvent and product also contributed above 5 % to summertime ozone. For summertime PM2.5, the important anthropogenic source sectors are energy, transportation, industry, and agriculture. Residential wood combustion is an important anthropogenic sector in winter for PM2.5 over most of Europe, with larger contributions in central and eastern Europe and the Nordic cities. Other anthropogenic sectors with large contributions to wintertime PM2.5 include energy, transportation, and agriculture.

Water, heat, and vapor flow in a deep vadose zone under arid and hyper-arid conditions: a numerical study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madi, Raneem; de Rooij, Gerrit H.

2017-04-01

Groundwater recharge in arid regions is notoriously difficult to quantify. One reason is data scarcity: reliable weather records (rainfall, potential evapotranspiration rate, temperature) are typically lacking, the soil properties over the entire extent of the often very deep vadose zone are usually unknown, and the effect of sparse vegetation, wadis, (biological) soil crusts, and hard pans on infiltration and evaporation is difficult to quantify. Another reason is the difficulty of modeling the intricately coupled relevant processes over extended periods of time: coupled flow of liquid water, water vapor, and heat in a very deep soil in view of considerable uncertainty at the soil surface as indicated above, and over large spatial extents. In view of this myriad of problems, we limited ourselves to the simulation of 1-dimensional coupled flow of water, heat, and vapor in an unvegetated deep vadose zone. The conventional parameterizations of the soil hydraulic properties perform poorly under very dry conditions. We therefore selected an alternative that was developed specifically for dry circumstances and modified another to eliminate the physically implausible residual water content that rendered it of limited use for desert environments. The issue of data scarcity was resolved by using numerically generated rainfall records combined with a simple model for annual and daily temperature fluctuations. The soil was uniform, and the groundwater depth was constant at 100 m depth, which provided the lower boundary condition. The geothermal gradient determined the temperature at the groundwater level. We generated two scenarios with 120 years of weather in an arid and a hyper-arid climate. The initial condition was established by first starting with a somewhat arbitrary unit gradient initial condition corresponding to a small fraction of the annual average rainfall and let the model run through the 120-year atmospheric forcing. The resulting profile of matric potential and temperature was used as the initial condition for the warm-up period of the model (240 years) during which the weather record was repeated, which was then followed by the 120-year cycle we used for analysis. We will present the initial results of our analysis: - the dynamics (or lack thereof) of groundwater recharge and the role of wet years (or clusters of years) and droughts on the amount of recharge - the speed with which the atmospheric input signal travels downward, and the damping of the signal on its way down - the role of vapor flow under geothermal conditions

Middle atmosphere project. A semi-spectral numerical model for the large-scale stratospheric circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holton, J. R.; Wehrbein, W.

1979-01-01

The complete model is a semispectral model in which the longitudinal dependence is represented by expansion in zonal harmonics while the latitude and height dependencies are represented by a finite difference grid. The model is based on the primitive equations in the log pressure coordinate system. The lower boundary of the model domain is set at the 100 mb level (i.e., near the tropopause) and the effects of tropospheric forcing are included in the lower boundary condition. The upper boundary is at approximately 96 km, and the latitudinal extent is either global or hemispheric. The basic differential equations and boundary conditions are outlined. The finite difference equations are described. The initial conditions are discussed and a sample calculation is presented. The FORTRAN code is given in the appendix.

Finite Element Modeling of In-Situ Stresses near Salt Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanz, P.; Gray, G.; Albertz, M.

2011-12-01

The in-situ stress field is modified around salt bodies because salt rock has no ability to sustain shear stresses. A reliable prediction of stresses near salt is important for planning safe and economic drilling programs. A better understanding of in-situ stresses before drilling can be achieved using finite element models that account for the creeping salt behavior and the elastoplastic response of the surrounding sediments. Two different geomechanical modeling techniques can be distinguished: "dynamic" modeling and "static" modeling. "Dynamic" models, also known as forward models, simulate the development of structural processes in geologic time. This technique provides the evolution of stresses and so it is used to simulate the initiation and development of structural features, such as, faults, folds, fractures, and salt diapers. The original or initial configuration and the unknown final configuration of forward models are usually significantly different therefore geometric non-linearities need to be considered. These models may be difficult to constrain when different tectonic, deposition, and erosion events, and the timing among them, needs to be accounted for. While dynamic models provide insight into the stress evolution, in many cases is very challenging, if not impossible, to forward model a configuration to its known present-day geometry; particularly in the case of salt layers that evolve into highly irregular and complex geometries. Alternatively, "static" models use the present-day geometry and present-day far-field stresses to estimate the present-day in-situ stress field inside a domain. In this case, it is appropriate to use a small deformation approach because initial and final configurations should be very similar, and more important, because the equilibrium of stresses should be stated in the present-day initial configuration. The initial stresses and the applied boundary conditions are constrained by the geologic setting and available data. This modeling technique does not predict the evolution of structural elements or stresses with time; therefore it does not provide any insight into the formation of fractures that were previously developed under a different stress condition or the development of overpressure generated by a high sedimentation rate. This work provides a validation for predicting in-situ stresses near salt using "static" models. We compare synthetic examples using both modeling techniques and show that stresses near salt predicted with "static" models are comparable to the ones generated by "dynamic" models.

Nonideal Rayleigh–Taylor mixing

PubMed Central

Lim, Hyunkyung; Iwerks, Justin; Glimm, James; Sharp, David H.

2010-01-01

Rayleigh–Taylor mixing is a classical hydrodynamic instability that occurs when a light fluid pushes against a heavy fluid. The two main sources of nonideal behavior in Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) mixing are regularizations (physical and numerical), which produce deviations from a pure Euler equation, scale invariant formulation, and nonideal (i.e., experimental) initial conditions. The Kolmogorov theory of turbulence predicts stirring at all length scales for the Euler fluid equations without regularization. We interpret mathematical theories of existence and nonuniqueness in this context, and we provide numerical evidence for dependence of the RT mixing rate on nonideal regularizations; in other words, indeterminacy when modeled by Euler equations. Operationally, indeterminacy shows up as nonunique solutions for RT mixing, parametrized by Schmidt and Prandtl numbers, in the large Reynolds number (Euler equation) limit. Verification and validation evidence is presented for the large eddy simulation algorithm used here. Mesh convergence depends on breaking the nonuniqueness with explicit use of the laminar Schmidt and Prandtl numbers and their turbulent counterparts, defined in terms of subgrid scale models. The dependence of the mixing rate on the Schmidt and Prandtl numbers and other physical parameters will be illustrated. We demonstrate numerically the influence of initial conditions on the mixing rate. Both the dominant short wavelength initial conditions and long wavelength perturbations are observed to play a role. By examination of two classes of experiments, we observe the absence of a single universal explanation, with long and short wavelength initial conditions, and the various physical and numerical regularizations contributing in different proportions in these two different contexts. PMID:20615983

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions (Experiment 2)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Robinson, M. M.; Stoll, D. K.; Dolan, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.

2011-01-01

The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): experimental design and boundary conditions (Experiment 2)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Robinson, M.M.; Stoll, D.K.; Dolan, A.M.; Lunt, D.J.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M.A.

2011-01-01

The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere-only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilises fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

Using Global Plate Velocity Boundary Conditions for Embedded Regional Geodynamic Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taramon Gomez, Jorge; Morgan, Jason; Perez-Gussinye, Marta

2015-04-01

The treatment of far-field boundary conditions is one of the most poorly resolved issues for regional modeling of geodynamic processes. In viscous flow, the choice of far-field boundary conditions often strongly shapes the large-scale structure of a geosimulation. The mantle velocity field along the sidewalls and base of a modeling region is typically much more poorly known than the geometry of past global motions of the surface plates as constrained by global plate motion reconstructions. For regional rifting models it has become routine to apply highly simplified 'plate spreading' or 'uniform rifting' boundary conditions to a 3-D model that limits its ability to simulate the geodynamic evolution of a specific rifted margin. One way researchers are exploring the sensitivity of regional models to uncertain boundary conditions is to use a nested modeling approach in which a global model is used to determine a large-scale flow pattern that is imposed as a constraint along the boundaries of the region to be modeled. Here we explore the utility of a different approach that takes advantage of the ability of finite element models to use unstructured meshes than can embed much higher resolution sub-regions within a spherical global mesh. In our initial project to validate this approach, we create a global spherical mesh in which a higher resolution sub-region is created around the nascent South Atlantic Rifting Margin. Global Plate motion BCs and plate boundaries are applied for the time of the onset of rifting, continuing through several 10s of Ma of rifting. Thermal, compositional, and melt-related buoyancy forces are only non-zero within the high-resolution subregion, elsewhere, motions are constrained by surface plate-motion constraints. The total number of unknowns needed to solve an embedded regional model with this approach is less than 1/3 larger than that needed for a structured-mesh solution on a Cartesian or spherical cap sub-regional mesh. Here we illustrate the initial steps within this workflow for creating time-varying surface boundary conditions (using GPlates), and a time-variable unstructured 3-D spherical mesh.

Kinetics of zero-valent iron reductive transformation of the anthraquinone dye Reactive Blue 4.

PubMed

Epolito, William J; Yang, Hanbae; Bottomley, Lawrence A; Pavlostathis, Spyros G

2008-12-30

The effect of operational conditions and initial dye concentration on the reductive transformation (decolorization) of the textile dye Reactive Blue 4 (RB4) using zero-valent iron (ZVI) filings was evaluated in batch assays. The decolorization rate increased with decreasing pH and increasing temperature, mixing intensity, and addition of salt (100gL(-1) NaCl) and base (3gL(-1) Na2CO3 and 1gL(-1) NaOH), conditions typical of textile reactive dyebaths. ZVI RB4 decolorization kinetics at a single initial dye concentration were evaluated using a pseudo first-order model. Under dyebath conditions and at an initial RB4 concentration of 1000mgL(-1), the pseudo first-order rate constant (kobs) was 0.029+/-0.006h(-1), corresponding to a half-life of 24.2h and a ZVI surface area-normalized rate constant (kSA) of 2.9x10(-4)Lm(-2)h(-1). However, as the initial dye concentration increased, the kobs decreased, suggesting saturation of ZVI surface reactive sites. Non-linear regression of initial decolorization rate values as a function of initial dye concentration, based on a reactive sites saturation model, resulted in a maximum decolorization rate (Vm) of 720+/-88mgL(-1)h(-1) and a half-saturation constant (K) of 1299+/-273mgL(-1). Decolorization of RB4 via a reductive transformation, which was essentially irreversible (2-5% re-oxidation), is believed to be the dominant decolorization mechanism. However, some degree of RB4 irreversible sorption cannot be completely discounted. The results of this study show that ZVI treatment is a promising technology for the decolorization of commercial, anthraquinone-bearing, spent reactive dyebaths.

Using Large-Eddy Simulation to Explore Microphysical Precursor Conditions for Precipitation Initiation in Marine Stratocumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandler, H.; Mechem, D. B.; Fridlind, A. M.; Ackerman, A. S.

2016-12-01

Although the classical model of how a population of cloud droplets grows to precipitation-sized drops through the condensation and coalescence processes is well accepted, it does not fully address the history of how nascent precipitation drops come about in warm clouds. Precipitation initiation is influenced by the properties of the cloud drop distribution and in bulk large-eddy simulation (LES) models is parameterized by autoconversion. Double-moment formulations of autoconversion rate generally weight cloud water content qc more than cloud drop concentration Nc (e.g., qc2.47Nc-1.79, Khairoutdinov and Kogan 2000) and precipitation rate scalings derived from field campaigns suggest a dominance of thermodynamic over aerosol factors. However, the mechanisms that drive precipitation initiation in any given cloud are still uncertain. From the perspective of autoconversion, do the regions where precipitation onset occurs experience large liquid water content values (large qc), or are they anomalously clean (small Nc)? Recent laboratory measurements suggest that fluctuations in the supersaturation field may also play a role in precipitation initiation. This study explores the nature of precursor conditions to precipitation onset within marine stratocumulus clouds. We apply an LES model with size-resolving microphysics to a case of marine stratocumulus over the eastern north Atlantic. Backward trajectories originating from regions of precipitation initiation are calculated from the time-evolving LES flow fields to examine the history of fluid parcels that ultimately contain embryonic precipitation.

Modeling surface-water flow and sediment mobility with the Multi-Dimensional Surface-Water Modeling System (MD_SWMS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, Richard; Nelson, Jonathan; Kinzel, Paul; Conaway, Jeffrey S.

2006-01-01

The Multi-Dimensional Surface-Water Modeling System (MD_SWMS) is a Graphical User Interface for surface-water flow and sediment-transport models. The capabilities of MD_SWMS for developing models include: importing raw topography and other ancillary data; building the numerical grid and defining initial and boundary conditions; running simulations; visualizing results; and comparing results with measured data.

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CMCT as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.« less

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

DOE PAGES

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; ...

2017-01-17

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CMCT as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.« less

Initial conditions and modeling for simulations of shock driven turbulent material mixing

DOE PAGES

Grinstein, Fernando F.

2016-11-17

Here, we focus on the simulation of shock-driven material mixing driven by flow instabilities and initial conditions (IC). Beyond complex multi-scale resolution issues of shocks and variable density turbulence, me must address the equally difficult problem of predicting flow transition promoted by energy deposited at the material interfacial layer during the shock interface interactions. Transition involves unsteady large-scale coherent-structure dynamics capturable by a large eddy simulation (LES) strategy, but not by an unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) approach based on developed equilibrium turbulence assumptions and single-point-closure modeling. On the engineering end of computations, such URANS with reduced 1D/2D dimensionality and coarsermore » grids, tend to be preferred for faster turnaround in full-scale configurations.« less

Behavioral health and health care reform models: patient-centered medical home, health home, and accountable care organization.

PubMed

Bao, Yuhua; Casalino, Lawrence P; Pincus, Harold Alan

2013-01-01

Discussions of health care delivery and payment reforms have largely been silent about how behavioral health could be incorporated into reform initiatives. This paper draws attention to four patient populations defined by the severity of their behavioral health conditions and insurance status. It discusses the potentials and limitations of three prominent models promoted by the Affordable Care Act to serve populations with behavioral health conditions: the Patient-Centered Medical Home, the Health Home initiative within Medicaid, and the Accountable Care Organization. To incorporate behavioral health into health reform, policymakers and practitioners may consider embedding in the reform efforts explicit tools-accountability measures and payment designs-to improve access to and quality of care for patients with behavioral health needs.

Behavioral Health and Health Care Reform Models: Patient-Centered Medical Home, Health Home, and Accountable Care Organization

PubMed Central

Bao, Yuhua; Casalino, Lawrence P.; Pincus, Harold Alan

2012-01-01

Discussions of health care delivery and payment reforms have largely been silent about how behavioral health could be incorporated into reform initiatives. This paper draws attention to four patient populations defined by the severity of their behavioral health conditions and insurance status. It discusses the potentials and limitations of three prominent models promoted by the Affordable Care Act to serve populations with behavioral health conditions: the Patient Centered Medical Home, the Health Home initiative within Medicaid, and the Accountable Care Organization. To incorporate behavioral health into health reform, policymakers and practitioners may consider embedding in the reform efforts explicit tools – accountability measures and payment designs – to improve access to and quality of care for patients with behavioral health needs. PMID:23188486

Behavior of a stochastic SIR epidemic model with saturated incidence and vaccination rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yue; Li, Yang; Zhang, Qingling; Li, Aihua

2018-07-01

In this paper, the threshold behavior of a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with stochastic perturbation is investigated. Firstly, it is obtained that the system has a unique global positive solution with any positive initial value. Random effect may lead to disease extinction under a simple condition. Subsequently, sufficient condition for persistence has been established in the mean of the disease. Finally, some numerical simulations are carried out to confirm the analytical results.

The application of MINIQUASI to thermal program boundary and initial value problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

The feasibility of applying the solution techniques of Miniquasi to the set of equations which govern a thermoregulatory model is investigated. For solving nonlinear equations and/or boundary conditions, a Taylor Series expansion is required for linearization of both equations and boundary conditions. The solutions are iterative and in each iteration, a problem like the linear case is solved. It is shown that Miniquasi cannot be applied to the thermoregulatory model as originally planned.

[Research and application of computer-aided technology in restoration of maxillary defect].

PubMed

Cheng, Xiaosheng; Liao, Wenhe; Hu, Qingang; Wang, Qian; Dai, Ning

2008-08-01

This paper presents a new method of designing restoration model of maxillectomy defect through Computer aided technology. Firstly, 3D maxillectomy triangle mesh model is constructed from Helical CT data. Secondly, the triangle mesh model is transformed into initial computer-aided design (CAD) model of maxillectomy through reverse engineering software. Thirdly, the 3D virtual restoration model of maxillary defect is obtained after designing and adjusting the initial CAD model through CAD software according to the patient's practical condition. Therefore, the 3D virtual restoration can be fitted very well with the broken part of maxilla. The exported design data can be manufactured using rapid prototyping technology and foundry technology. Finally, the result proved that this method is effective and feasible.

A conditional approach to determining the effect of anthropogenic climate change on very rare events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Pall, Pardeep; Zarzycki, Colin; Stone, Daithi

2016-04-01

Probabilistic extreme event attribution is especially difficult for weather events that are caused by extremely rare large-scale meteorological patterns. Traditional modeling techniques have involved using ensembles of climate models, either fully coupled or with prescribed ocean and sea ice. Ensemble sizes for the latter case ranges from several 100 to tens of thousand. However, even if the simulations are constrained by the observed ocean state, the requisite large-scale meteorological pattern may not occur frequently enough or even at all in free running climate model simulations. We present a method to ensure that simulated events similar to the observed event are modeled with enough fidelity that robust statistics can be determined given the large scale meteorological conditions. By initializing suitably constrained short term ensemble hindcasts of both the actual weather system and a counterfactual weather system where the human interference in the climate system is removed, the human contribution to the magnitude of the event can be determined. However, the change (if any) in the probability of an event of the observed magnitude is conditional not only on the state of the ocean/sea ice system but also on the prescribed initial conditions determined by the causal large scale meteorological pattern. We will discuss the implications of this technique through two examples; the 2013 Colorado flood and the 2014 Typhoon Haiyan.

Model of Early Support of Child Development in Poland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Czyz, Anna Katarzyna

2018-01-01

The development of a child, especially a child with a disability, is conditional upon the initiation of rehabilitation measures immediately after the problem has been identified. The quality of the reaction is conditioned by the functioning of the therapeutic team. The main purpose of the research was the diagnosis of early support system for…

Application of response surface methodology for optimization of biosorption of fluoride from groundwater using Shorea robusta flower petal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, G.; Kumari, M.; Adhikari, K.; Dutta, S.

2017-12-01

Fluoride pollution in groundwater is a major concern in rural areas. The flower petal of Shorea robusta, commonly known as sal tree, is used in the present study both in its native form and Ca-impregnated activated form to eradicate excess fluoride from simulated wastewater. Response surface methodology (RSM) was used for experimental designing and analyzing optimum condition for carbonization vis-à-vis calcium impregnation for preparation of adsorbent. During carbonization, temperature, time and weight ratio of calcium chloride to sal flower petal (SFP) have been considered as input factors and percentage removal of fluoride as response. Optimum condition for carbonization has been obtained as temperature, 500 °C; time, 1 h and weight ratio, 2.5 and the sample prepared has been termed as calcium-impregnated carbonized sal flower petal (CCSFP). Optimum condition as analyzed by one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) method is initial fluoride concentration, 2.91 mg/L; pH 3 and adsorbent dose, 4 g/L. CCSFP shows maximum removal of 98.5% at this condition. RSM has also been used for finding out optimum condition for defluoridation considering initial concentration, pH and adsorbent dose as input parameters. The optimum condition as analyzed by RSM is: initial concentration, 5 mg/L; pH 3.5 and adsorbent dose, 2 g/L. Kinetic and equilibrium data follow Ho pseudo-second-order kinetic model and Freundlich isotherm model, respectively. Adsorption capacity of CCSFP has been found to be 5.465 mg/g. At optimized condition, CCSFP has been found to remove fluoride (80.4%) efficiently from groundwater collected from Bankura district in West Bengal, a fluoride-contaminated province in India.

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) Code: Description and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrow, Charles W.; Bartel, Timothy James

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) computer code was developed at Sandia National Laboratories as part of their nuclear launch accident consequences analysis suite of computer codes. The purpose of IAT is to predict the initial puff/plume rise resulting from either a solid rocket propellant or liquid rocket fuel fire. The code generates initial conditions for subsequent atmospheric transport calculations. The Initial Atmospheric Transfer (IAT) code has been compared to two data sets which are appropriate to the design space of space launch accident analyses. The primary model uncertainties are the entrainment coefficients for the extended Taylor model. The Titan 34Dmore » accident (1986) was used to calibrate these entrainment settings for a prototypic liquid propellant accident while the recent Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL, or simply APL) large propellant block tests (2012) were used to calibrate the entrainment settings for prototypic solid propellant accidents. North American Meteorology (NAM )formatted weather data profiles are used by IAT to determine the local buoyancy force balance. The IAT comparisons for the APL solid propellant tests illustrate the sensitivity of the plume elevation to the weather profiles; that is, the weather profile is a dominant factor in determining the plume elevation. The IAT code performed remarkably well and is considered validated for neutral weather conditions.« less

Relation Between Firing Statistics of Spiking Neuron with Delayed Fast Inhibitory Feedback and Without Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidybida, Alexander; Shchur, Olha

We consider a class of spiking neuronal models, defined by a set of conditions typical for basic threshold-type models, such as the leaky integrate-and-fire or the binding neuron model and also for some artificial neurons. A neuron is fed with a Poisson process. Each output impulse is applied to the neuron itself after a finite delay Δ. This impulse acts as being delivered through a fast Cl-type inhibitory synapse. We derive a general relation which allows calculating exactly the probability density function (pdf) p(t) of output interspike intervals of a neuron with feedback based on known pdf p0(t) for the same neuron without feedback and on the properties of the feedback line (the Δ value). Similar relations between corresponding moments are derived. Furthermore, we prove that the initial segment of pdf p0(t) for a neuron with a fixed threshold level is the same for any neuron satisfying the imposed conditions and is completely determined by the input stream. For the Poisson input stream, we calculate that initial segment exactly and, based on it, obtain exactly the initial segment of pdf p(t) for a neuron with feedback. That is the initial segment of p(t) is model-independent as well. The obtained expressions are checked by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The course of p(t) has a pronounced peculiarity, which makes it impossible to approximate p(t) by Poisson or another simple stochastic process.

Artificial neural network (ANN) approach for modeling of Pb(II) adsorption from aqueous solution by Antep pistachio (Pistacia Vera L.) shells.

PubMed

Yetilmezsoy, Kaan; Demirel, Sevgi

2008-05-30

A three-layer artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict the efficiency of Pb(II) ions removal from aqueous solution by Antep pistachio (Pistacia Vera L.) shells based on 66 experimental sets obtained in a laboratory batch study. The effect of operational parameters such as adsorbent dosage, initial concentration of Pb(II) ions, initial pH, operating temperature, and contact time were studied to optimise the conditions for maximum removal of Pb(II) ions. On the basis of batch test results, optimal operating conditions were determined to be an initial pH of 5.5, an adsorbent dosage of 1.0 g, an initial Pb(II) concentration of 30 ppm, and a temperature of 30 degrees C. Experimental results showed that a contact time of 45 min was generally sufficient to achieve equilibrium. After backpropagation (BP) training combined with principal component analysis (PCA), the ANN model was able to predict adsorption efficiency with a tangent sigmoid transfer function (tansig) at hidden layer with 11 neurons and a linear transfer function (purelin) at output layer. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA) was found as the best of 11 BP algorithms with a minimum mean squared error (MSE) of 0.000227875. The linear regression between the network outputs and the corresponding targets were proven to be satisfactory with a correlation coefficient of about 0.936 for five model variables used in this study.

Artificial neural network modelling for organic and total nitrogen removal of aerobic granulation under steady-state condition.

PubMed

Gong, H; Pishgar, R; Tay, J H

2018-04-27

Aerobic granulation is a recent technology with high level of complexity and sensitivity to environmental and operational conditions. Artificial neural networks (ANNs), computational tools capable of describing complex non-linear systems, are the best fit to simulate aerobic granular bioreactors. In this study, two feedforward backpropagation ANN models were developed to predict chemical oxygen demand (Model I) and total nitrogen removal efficiencies (Model II) of aerobic granulation technology under steady-state condition. Fundamentals of ANN models and the steps to create them were briefly reviewed. The models were respectively fed with 205 and 136 data points collected from laboratory-, pilot-, and full-scale studies on aerobic granulation technology reported in the literature. Initially, 60%, 20%, and 20%, and 80%, 10%, and 10% of the points in the corresponding datasets were randomly chosen and used for training, testing, and validation of Model I, and Model II, respectively. Overall coefficient of determination (R 2 ) value and mean squared error (MSE) of the two models were initially 0.49 and 15.5, and 0.37 and 408, respectively. To improve the model performance, two data division methods were used. While one method is generic and potentially applicable to other fields, the other can only be applied to modelling the performance of aerobic granular reactors. R 2 value and MSE were improved to 0.90 and 2.54, and 0.81 and 121.56, respectively, after applying the new data division methods. The results demonstrated that ANN-based models were capable simulation approach to predict a complicated process like aerobic granulation.

Stochastic Modeling of Laminar-Turbulent Transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubinstein, Robert; Choudhari, Meelan

2002-01-01

Stochastic versions of stability equations are developed in order to develop integrated models of transition and turbulence and to understand the effects of uncertain initial conditions on disturbance growth. Stochastic forms of the resonant triad equations, a high Reynolds number asymptotic theory, and the parabolized stability equations are developed.

Use of Data to Improve Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts Simulated by Intermediate Coupled Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perigaud, C.; Cassou, C.; Dewitte, B.; Fu, L-L.; Neelin, J.

1999-01-01

This paper provides a detailed illustration that it can be much more beneficial for ENSO forecasting to use data to improve the model parameterizations rather than to modify the initial conditions to gain in consistency with the simulated coupled system.

ICE CONTROL - Towards optimizing wind energy production during icing events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorninger, Manfred; Strauss, Lukas; Serafin, Stefano; Beck, Alexander; Wittmann, Christoph; Weidle, Florian; Meier, Florian; Bourgeois, Saskia; Cattin, René; Burchhart, Thomas; Fink, Martin

2017-04-01

Forecasts of wind power production loss caused by icing weather conditions are produced by a chain of physical models. The model chain consists of a numerical weather prediction model, an icing model and a production loss model. Each element of the model chain is affected by significant uncertainty, which can be quantified using targeted observations and a probabilistic forecasting approach. In this contribution, we present preliminary results from the recently launched project ICE CONTROL, an Austrian research initiative on measurements, probabilistic forecasting, and verification of icing on wind turbine blades. ICE CONTROL includes an experimental field phase, consisting of measurement campaigns in a wind park in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, in the winters 2016/17 and 2017/18. Instruments deployed during the campaigns consist of a conventional icing detector on the turbine hub and newly devised ice sensors (eologix Sensor System) on the turbine blades, as well as meteorological sensors for wind, temperature, humidity, visibility, and precipitation type and spectra. Liquid water content and spectral characteristics of super-cooled water droplets are measured using a Fog Monitor FM-120. Three cameras document the icing conditions on the instruments and on the blades. Different modelling approaches are used to quantify the components of the model-chain uncertainties. The uncertainty related to the initial conditions of the weather prediction is evaluated using the existing global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Furthermore, observation system experiments are conducted with the AROME model and its 3D-Var data assimilation to investigate the impact of additional observations (such as Mode-S aircraft data, SCADA data and MSG cloud mask initialization) on the numerical icing forecast. The uncertainty related to model formulation is estimated from multi-physics ensembles based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) by perturbing parameters in the physical parameterization schemes. In addition, uncertainties of the icing model and of its adaptations to the rotating turbine blade are addressed. The model forecasts combined with the suite of instruments and their measurements make it possible to conduct a step-wise verification of all the components of the model chain - a novel aspect compared to similar ongoing and completed forecasting projects.

Physical Modeling of Shear Behavior of Infilled Rock Joints Under CNL and CNS Boundary Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrivastava, Amit Kumar; Rao, K. Seshagiri

2018-01-01

Despite their frequent natural occurrence, filled discontinuities under constant normal stiffness (CNS) boundary conditions have been studied much less systematically, perhaps because of the difficulties arising from the increased number of variable parameters. Because of the lack of reliable and realistic theoretical or empirical relations and the difficulties in obtaining and testing representative samples, engineers rely on judgment and often consider the shear strength of the infilled material itself as shear strength of rock joints. This assumption leads to uneconomical and also sometimes the unsafe design of underground structures, slopes, rock-socketed piles and foundations. To study the effect of infill on the shear behavior of rock joints, tests were performed on the modeled infilled rock joint having different joint roughness under constant normal load (CNL) and CNS boundary conditions at various initial normal stress and varying thickness of the infilled material. The test results indicate that shear strength decreases with an increase in t/ a ratio for both CNL and CNS conditions, but the reduction in shear strength is more for CNL than for CNS condition for a given initial normal stress. The detailed account of the effect of thickness of infilled material on shear and deformation behavior of infilled rock joint is discussed in this paper, and a model is proposed to predict shear strength of infilled rock joint.

Decomposition of fluctuating initial conditions and flow harmonics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Wei-Liang; Mota, Philipe; Andrade, Rone; Gardim, Fernando; Grassi, Frédérique; Hama, Yogiro; Kodama, Takeshi

2014-01-01

Collective flow observed in heavy-ion collisions is largely attributed to initial geometrical fluctuations, and it is the hydrodynamic evolution of the system that transforms those initial spatial irregularities into final state momentum anisotropies. Cumulant analysis provides a mathematical tool to decompose those initial fluctuations in terms of radial and azimuthal components. It is usually thought that a specified order of azimuthal cumulant, for the most part, linearly produces flow harmonics of the same order. In this work, by considering the most central collisions (0%-5%), we carry out a systematic study on the connection between cumulants and flow harmonics using a hydrodynamic code called NeXSPheRIO. We conduct three types of calculation, by explicitly decomposing the initial conditions into components corresponding to a given eccentricity and studying the out-coming flow through hydrodynamic evolution. It is found that for initial conditions deviating significantly from Gaussian, such as those from NeXuS, the linearity between eccentricities and flow harmonics partially breaks down. Combined with the effect of coupling between cumulants of different orders, it causes the production of extra flow harmonics of higher orders. We argue that these results can be seen as a natural consequence of the non-linear nature of hydrodynamics, and they can be understood intuitively in terms of the peripheral-tube model.

Tris(trimethylsilyl)silane as a co-initiator for dental adhesive: Photo-polymerization kinetics and dynamic mechanical property

PubMed Central

Song, Linyong; Ye, Qiang; Ge, Xueping; Misra, Anil; Spencer, Paulette

2017-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study was to evaluate the polymerization behavior of a model dentin adhesive with tris(trimethylsilyl)silane (TTMSS) as a co-initiator, and to investigate the polymerization kinetics and mechanical properties of copolymers in dry and wet conditions. Methods A co-monomer mixture based on HEMA/BisGMA (45/55, w/w) was used as a model dentin adhesive. The photoinitiator system included camphorquinone (CQ) as the photosensitizer and the co-initiator was ethyl-4-(dimethylamino) benzoate (EDMAB) or TTMSS. Iodonium salt, diphenyliodonium hexafluorophosphate (DPIHP) serving as a catalyst, was selectively added into the adhesive formulations. The control and the experimental formulations were characterized with regard to the degree of conversion (DC) and dynamic mechanical properties under dry and wet conditions. Results In two-component photoinitiator system (CQ/TTMSS), with an increase of TTMSS concentration, the polymerization rate and DC of C═C double bond increased, and showed a dependence on the irradiation time and curing light intensity. The copolymers that contained the three-component photoinitiator system (CQ/TTMSS/DPIHP) showed similar dynamic mechanical properties, under both dry and wet conditions, to the EDMAB-containing system. Significance The DC of formulations using TTMSS as co-initiator showed a strong dependence on irradiation time. With the addition of TTMSS, the maximum polymerization rate can be adjusted and the network structure became more homogenous. The results indicated that the TTMSS could be used as a substitute for amine-type co-initiator in visible-light induced free radical polymerization of methacrylate-based dentin adhesives. PMID:26616688

A Model based Examination of Conditions for Ignition of Turbidity Currents on Slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, A. J.; Krishna, G.

2009-12-01

Turbidity currents form a major mechanism for the movement of sediment in the natural environment. Self-accelerating turbidity currents over continental slopes are of considerable scientific and engineering interest due to their role as agents for submarine sediment transportation from the shelf to the seabed. Such currents are called ignitive provided they eventually reach a catastrophic state as acceleration results in high sediment loads due to erosion of the sloping bed. A numerical model, which treats the fluid and the particles as two separate phases, is applied to investigate the effects of particle size, initial flow friction velocity and mild bed slope on the ignitive condition. Laboratory experimental data have been included as part of the analysis for qualitative comparison purposes. Ignition for the smallest of the three selected sizes (0.21mm) of medium sand typical of Florida beaches was found to depend on the initial conditions at the head of the slope as determined by the pressure gradient. Bed slope seemed to be of secondary importance. For the two sands with larger grain sizes (0.28mm and 0.35mm) the slope was found to play a more important role when compared to the initial pressure gradient. For a given pressure gradient, increasing the slope increased the likelihood of self-acceleration. It is concluded that in general ignition cannot be defined merely in terms of positive values of the velocity gradient and the sediment flux gradient along the slope. Depending on particle size the initial pressure gradient can also play a role. For the selected initial conditions (grain size, pressure gradient and bed slope), out of the 54 combinations tested, all except three satisfied the Knapp-Bagnold criterion for auto-suspension irrespective of whether the turbid current was ignitive or non-ignitive. In all 54 cases the current was found to erode the bed. Further use of the model will require accommodation of wider ranges of sediment size and bed density, and a thorough verification against experimental data.

Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions) as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism). Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM10). Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. Verification statistics show that the deterministic models simulate better O3 than NO2 and PM10, linked to different levels of complexity in the represented processes. The unconditional ensemble mean achieves higher skill compared to each stati

Using weather prediction data for simulation of mesoscale atmospheric processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, Andrey A.; Starchenko, Alexander V.

2015-11-01

The paper presents an approach to specify initial and boundary conditions from the output data of global model SLAV for mesoscale modelling of atmospheric processes in areas not covered by meteorological observations. From the data and the model equations for a homogeneous atmospheric boundary layer the meteorological and turbulent characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer are calculated.

On Discontinuous Piecewise Linear Models for Memristor Oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amador, Andrés; Freire, Emilio; Ponce, Enrique; Ros, Javier

2017-06-01

In this paper, we provide for the first time rigorous mathematical results regarding the rich dynamics of piecewise linear memristor oscillators. In particular, for each nonlinear oscillator given in [Itoh & Chua, 2008], we show the existence of an infinite family of invariant manifolds and that the dynamics on such manifolds can be modeled without resorting to discontinuous models. Our approach provides topologically equivalent continuous models with one dimension less but with one extra parameter associated to the initial conditions. It is possible to justify the periodic behavior exhibited by three-dimensional memristor oscillators, by taking advantage of known results for planar continuous piecewise linear systems. The analysis developed not only confirms the numerical results contained in previous works [Messias et al., 2010; Scarabello & Messias, 2014] but also goes much further by showing the existence of closed surfaces in the state space which are foliated by periodic orbits. The important role of initial conditions that justify the infinite number of periodic orbits exhibited by these models, is stressed. The possibility of unsuspected bistable regimes under specific configurations of parameters is also emphasized.

Kinetics of Eucalyptus globulus delignification in a methanol-water medium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilarranz, M.A.; Rodriguez, F.; Santos, A.

1999-09-01

The kinetics of Eucalyptus Globulus delignification in methanol-water pulping has been studied. A total of 17 isothermal runs at a liquor-to-wood ratio of 50 L/kg were carried out to develop the kinetic model describing the system. In a first series of experiments, eight models were considered to study the influence of temperature on the delignification rate. The most suitable model, which was discriminated according to statistical criteria, describes delignification as the consecutive dissolution of three lignin species: initial, bulk, and residual lignin, their content in wood being 10, 69, and 21%, respectively. Initial and residual delignification were considered as irreversiblemore » reactions and bulk delignification as reversible. The influence of hydrogen ion concentration was taken into account by means of a general power-law expression. The model proposed was taken into account by means of a general power-law expression. The model proposed was validated by reproducing the experimental data from four runs carried out under nonisothermal conditions and a liquor-to-wood ratio of 7 L/kg, which are closer to industrial operating conditions.« less

Advanced oxidation of commercial herbicides mixture: experimental design and phytotoxicity evaluation.

PubMed

López, Alejandro; Coll, Andrea; Lescano, Maia; Zalazar, Cristina

2017-05-05

In this work, the suitability of the UV/H 2 O 2 process for commercial herbicides mixture degradation was studied. Glyphosate, the herbicide most widely used in the world, was mixed with other herbicides that have residual activity as 2,4-D and atrazine. Modeling of the process response related to specific operating conditions like initial pH and initial H 2 O 2 to total organic carbon molar ratio was assessed by the response surface methodology (RSM). Results have shown that second-order polynomial regression model could well describe and predict the system behavior within the tested experimental region. It also correctly explained the variability in the experimental data. Experimental values were in good agreement with the modeled ones confirming the significance of the model and highlighting the success of RSM for UV/H 2 O 2 process modeling. Phytotoxicity evolution throughout the photolytic degradation process was checked through germination tests indicating that the phytotoxicity of the herbicides mixture was significantly reduced after the treatment. The end point for the treatment at the operating conditions for maximum TOC conversion was also identified.

WRF/CMAQ AQMEII3 Simulations of US Regional-Scale ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Chemical boundary conditions are a key input to regional-scale photochemical models. In this study, performed during the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3), we perform annual simulations over North America with chemical boundary conditions prepared from four different global models. Results indicate that the impacts of different boundary conditions are significant for ozone throughout the year and most pronounced outside the summer season. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

Combining remote sensing and watershed modeling for regional-scale carbon cycling studies in disturbance-prone systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanan, E. J.; Tague, C.; Choate, J.; Liu, M.; Adam, J. C.

2016-12-01

Disturbance is a major force regulating C dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems. Evaluating future C balance in disturbance-prone systems requires understanding the underlying mechanisms that drive ecosystem processes over multiple scales of space and time. Simulation modeling is a powerful tool for bridging these scales, however, model projections are limited by large uncertainties in the initial state of vegetation C and N stores. Watershed models typically use one of two methods to initialize these stores. Spin up involves running a model until vegetation reaches steady state based on climate. This "potential" state however assumes the vegetation across the entire watershed has reached maturity and has a homogeneous age distribution. Yet to reliably represent C and N dynamics in disturbance-prone systems, models should be initialized to reflect their non-equilibrium conditions. Alternatively, remote sensing of a single vegetation parameter (typically leaf area index; LAI) can be combined with allometric relationships to allocate C and N to model stores and can reflect non-steady-state conditions. However, allometric relationships are species and region specific and do not account for environmental variation, thus resulting in C and N stores that may be unstable. To address this problem, we developed a new approach for initializing C and N pools using the watershed-scale ecohydrologic model RHESSys. The new approach merges the mechanistic stability of spinup with the spatial fidelity of remote sensing. Unlike traditional spin up, this approach supports non-homogeneous stand ages. We tested our approach in a pine-dominated watershed in central Idaho, which partially burned in July of 2000. We used LANDSAT and MODIS data to calculate LAI across the watershed following the 2000 fire. We then ran three sets of simulations using spin up, direct measurements, and the combined approach to initialize vegetation C and N stores, and compared our results to remotely sensed LAI following the simulation period. Model estimates of C, N, and water fluxes varied depending on which approach was used. The combined approach provided the best LAI estimates after 10 years of simulation. This method shows promise for improving projections of C, N, and water fluxes in disturbance-prone watersheds.

Dynamical evolution of stars and gas of young embedded stellar sub-clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sills, Alison; Rieder, Steven; Scora, Jennifer; McCloskey, Jessica; Jaffa, Sarah

2018-06-01

We present simulations of the dynamical evolution of young embedded star clusters. Our initial conditions are directly derived from X-ray, infrared, and radio observations of local systems, and our models evolve both gas and stars simultaneously. Our regions begin with both clustered and extended distributions of stars, and a gas distribution that can include a filamentary structure in addition to gas surrounding the stellar sub-clusters. We find that the regions become spherical, monolithic, and smooth quite quickly, and that the dynamical evolution is dominated by the gravitational interactions between the stars. In the absence of stellar feedback, the gas moves gently out of the centre of our regions but does not have a significant impact on the motions of the stars at the earliest stages of cluster formation. Our models at later times are consistent with observations of similar regions in the local neighbourhood. We conclude that the evolution of young protostar clusters is relatively insensitive to reasonable choices of initial conditions. Models with more realism, such as an initial population of binary and multiple stars and ongoing star formation, are the next step needed to confirm these findings.

Predicatbility of windstorm Klaus; sensitivity to PV perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbogast, P.; Maynard, K.

2010-09-01

It appears that some short-range weather forecast failures may be attributed to initial conditions errors. In some cases it is possible to anticipate the behavior of the model by comparison between observations and model analyses. In the case of extratropical cyclone development one may qualify the representation of the upper-level precursors described in terms of PV in the initial conditions by comparison with either satellite ozone or water-vapor. A step forward has been made in developing a tool based upon manual modifications of dynamical tropopause (i.e. height of 1.5 PV units) and PV inversion. After five years of experimentations it turns out that the forecasters eventually succeed in improving the forecast of some strong cyclone development. However the present approach is subjective per se. To measure the subjectivity of the procedure a set of 15 experiments has been performed provided by 7 different people (senior forecasters and scientists involved in dynamical meteorology) in order to improve an initial state of the global model ARPEGE leading to a poor forecast of the wind storm Klaus (24 January 2009). This experiment reveals that the manually defined corrections present common features but also a large spread.

Fixed-bed adsorption study of methylene blue onto pyrolytic tire char

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makrigianni, Vassiliki; Giannakas, Aris; Papadaki, Maria; Albanis, Triantafyllos; Konstantinou, Ioannis

2016-04-01

In this work, the adsorption efficiency of acid treated pyrolytic tire char to cationic methylene blue (MB) dye adsorption from aqueous solutions was investigated by fixed-bed adsorption column experiments. The effects of the initial dye concentration (10 - 40 mg L-1) and feed flow rate (50 - 150 mL min -1) with a fixed bed height (15 cm) were studied in order to determine the breakthrough characteristics of the adsorption system. The Adams-Bohart, Yoon-Nelson and Thomas model were applied to the adsorption of MB onto char at different operational conditions to predict the breakthrough curves and to determine the characteristic parameters of the column. The results showed that the maximum adsorbed quantities decreased with increasing flow rate and increased with increasing initial MB concentration. Breakthrough time and exhaustion time increased with decreasing inlet dye concentration and flow rate. In contrast with Adams-Bohart model, Yoon-Nelson model followed by Thomas model were found more suitable to describe the fixed-bed adsorption of methylene blue by char. The correlation coefficient values R2 for both models at different operating conditions are higher than 0.9 and the low average relative error values provided very good fittings of experimental data at different operating conditions. Higher adsorption capacity of 3.85 mg g -1 was obtained at 15 cm of adsorbent bed height, flow rate of 100 mL min -1and initial MB concentration of 40 mg L-1. Although that activated carbons exhibited higher adsorption capacities in the literature, acid-treated pyrolytic tire char was found to be considerably efficient adsorbent for the removal of MB dye column taking into account the advantages of the simpler production process compared to activated carbons, as well as, the availability of waste tire feedstock and concurrent waste tire management.

A socio-technical model to explore urban water systems scenarios.

PubMed

de Haan, Fjalar J; Ferguson, Briony C; Deletic, Ana; Brown, Rebekah R

2013-01-01

This article reports on the ongoing work and research involved in the development of a socio-technical model of urban water systems. Socio-technical means the model is not so much concerned with the technical or biophysical aspects of urban water systems, but rather with the social and institutional implications of the urban water infrastructure and vice versa. A socio-technical model, in the view purported in this article, produces scenarios of different urban water servicing solutions gaining or losing influence in meeting water-related societal needs, like potable water, drainage, environmental health and amenity. The urban water system is parameterised with vectors of the relative influence of each servicing solution. The model is a software implementation of the Multi-Pattern Approach, a theory on societal systems, like urban water systems, and how these develop and go through transitions under various internal and external conditions. Acknowledging that social dynamics comes with severe and non-reducible uncertainties, the model is set up to be exploratory, meaning that for any initial condition several possible future scenarios are produced. This article gives a concise overview of the necessary theoretical background, the model architecture and some initial test results using a drainage example.

On the Use of Biaxial Properties in Modeling Annulus as a Holzapfel–Gasser–Ogden Material

PubMed Central

Momeni Shahraki, Narjes; Fatemi, Ali; Goel, Vijay K.; Agarwal, Anand

2015-01-01

Besides the biology, stresses and strains within the tissue greatly influence the location of damage initiation and mode of failure in an intervertebral disk. Finite element models of a functional spinal unit (FSU) that incorporate reasonably accurate geometry and appropriate material properties are suitable to investigate such issues. Different material models and techniques have been used to model the anisotropic annulus fibrosus, but the abilities of these models to predict damage initiation in the annulus and to explain clinically observed phenomena are unclear. In this study, a hyperelastic anisotropic material model for the annulus with two different sets of material constants, experimentally determined using uniaxial and biaxial loading conditions, were incorporated in a 3D finite element model of a ligamentous FSU. The purpose of the study was to highlight the biomechanical differences (e.g., intradiscal pressure, motion, forces, stresses, strains, etc.) due to the dissimilarity between the two sets of material properties (uniaxial and biaxial). Based on the analyses, the biaxial constants simulations resulted in better agreements with the in vitro and in vivo data, and thus are more suitable for future damage analysis and failure prediction of the annulus under complex multiaxial loading conditions. PMID:26090359

SHM-Based Probabilistic Fatigue Life Prediction for Bridges Based on FE Model Updating

PubMed Central

Lee, Young-Joo; Cho, Soojin

2016-01-01

Fatigue life prediction for a bridge should be based on the current condition of the bridge, and various sources of uncertainty, such as material properties, anticipated vehicle loads and environmental conditions, make the prediction very challenging. This paper presents a new approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction for bridges using finite element (FE) model updating based on structural health monitoring (SHM) data. Recently, various types of SHM systems have been used to monitor and evaluate the long-term structural performance of bridges. For example, SHM data can be used to estimate the degradation of an in-service bridge, which makes it possible to update the initial FE model. The proposed method consists of three steps: (1) identifying the modal properties of a bridge, such as mode shapes and natural frequencies, based on the ambient vibration under passing vehicles; (2) updating the structural parameters of an initial FE model using the identified modal properties; and (3) predicting the probabilistic fatigue life using the updated FE model. The proposed method is demonstrated by application to a numerical model of a bridge, and the impact of FE model updating on the bridge fatigue life is discussed. PMID:26950125

Optimization of fermentation conditions for alcohol production.

PubMed

Bowman, L; Geiger, E

1984-12-01

The quantitative effects of carbohydrate levels, degree of initial saccharification, glucoamylase dosage, temperature, and fermentation time were investigated using a Box-Wilson central composite design protocol. With Saccharomyces cerevisiae ATCC 4126, it was found that the use of a partially saccharified starch substrate markedly increased yields and attainable alcohol levels. Balancing the degree of initial saccharification with the level of glucoamylase used to complete hydrolysis was found necessary to obtain optimum yields. The temperature optimum was found to be 36 degrees C. The regression equations obtained were used to model the fermentation in order to determine optimum fermentation conditions.

The use of thermovision camera to observe physiological and pathological conditions of oral cavity mucous membrane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dąbrowski, M.; Dulski, R.; Żmuda, S.; Zaborowski, P.; Pogorzelski, C.

2002-06-01

This article presents initial results of investigations of the temperature distribution changes in oral cavity mucous membrane. The investigations aimed to prepare a model of temperature changes existing within mucosal membrane in physiological conditions and to compare those changes with those under pathological conditions. Our investigations were carried out using an infrared imaging system. A representative group of patients was tested.

A First Look at Decadal Hydrological Predictability by Land Surface Ensemble Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xing; Zhu, Enda

2018-03-01

The prediction of terrestrial hydrology at the decadal scale is critical for managing water resources in the face of climate change. Here we conducted an assessment by global land model simulations following the design of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) decadal hindcast experiments, specifically testing for the sensitivity to perfect initial or boundary conditions. The memory for terrestrial water storage (TWS) is longer than 6 years over 11% of global land areas where the deep soil moisture and aquifer water have a long memory and a nonnegligible variability. Ensemble decadal predictions based on realistic initial conditions are skillful over 31%, 43%, and 59% of global land areas for TWS, deep soil moisture, and aquifer water, respectively. The fraction of skillful predictions for TWS increases by 10%-16% when conditioned on Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices. This study provides a first look at decadal hydrological predictability, with an improved skill when incorporating low-frequency climate information.

Model study of St. Stephen powerhouse fish passage facilities, Cooper River rediversion project, South Carolina. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hite, J.E.; Murphy, T.E.

1998-09-01

This report documents a model study of the St. Stephen Power Plant, located in Berkely County, South Carolina. A previous model study revealed that the fish lift at the powerhouse could be improved by providing auxiliary attraction flows to the fish entrances. An auxiliary attraction flow (AAF) system was proposed that uses a siphon to obtain the auxiliary attraction water from the reservoir. The model investigations reported herein address the flow conditions at the discharge end of the siphon; the hydraulic aspects of the siphon are not addressed. Three different models were used to evaluate flow conditions at the dischargemore » end of the AAF system. A 1:25-scale model of the St. Stephen powerhouse was used to improve the fish entrance conditions and to evaluate the outlet conditions for the initial AAF system. As the investigations progressed, the design of the siphon discharge system was modified to include downstream fish migration and debris passage.« less

Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall: Implications for modeling slope stability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Montgomery, D.R.; Schmidt, K.M.; Dietrich, W.E.; McKean, J.

2009-01-01

The middle of a hillslope hollow in the Oregon Coast Range failed and mobilized as a debris flow during heavy rainfall in November 1996. Automated pressure transducers recorded high spatial variability of pore water pressure within the area that mobilized as a debris flow, which initiated where local upward flow from bedrock developed into overlying colluvium. Postfailure observations of the bedrock surface exposed in the debris flow scar reveal a strong spatial correspondence between elevated piezometric response and water discharging from bedrock fractures. Measurements of apparent root cohesion on the basal (Cb) and lateral (Cl) scarp demonstrate substantial local variability, with areally weighted values of Cb = 0.1 and Cl = 4.6 kPa. Using measured soil properties and basal root strength, the widely used infinite slope model, employed assuming slope parallel groundwater flow, provides a poor prediction of hydrologie conditions at failure. In contrast, a model including lateral root strength (but neglecting lateral frictional strength) gave a predicted critical value of relative soil saturation that fell within the range defined by the arithmetic and geometric mean values at the time of failure. The 3-D slope stability model CLARA-W, used with locally observed pore water pressure, predicted small areas with lower factors of safety within the overall slide mass at sites consistent with field observations of where the failure initiated. This highly variable and localized nature of small areas of high pore pressure that can trigger slope failure means, however, that substantial uncertainty appears inevitable for estimating hydrologie conditions within incipient debris flows under natural conditions. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Escape time, relaxation, and sticky states of a softened Henon-Heiles model: Low-frequency vibrational mode effects and glass relaxation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toledo-Marín, J. Quetzalcóatl; Naumis, Gerardo G.

2018-04-01

Here we study the relaxation of a chain consisting of three masses joined by nonlinear springs and periodic conditions when the stiffness is weakened. This system, when expressed in their normal coordinates, yields a softened Henon-Heiles system. By reducing the stiffness of one low-frequency vibrational mode, a faster relaxation is enabled. This is due to a reduction of the energy barrier heights along the softened normal mode as well as for a widening of the opening channels of the energy landscape in configurational space. The relaxation is for the most part exponential, and can be explained by a simple flux equation. Yet, for some initial conditions the relaxation follows as a power law, and in many cases there is a regime change from exponential to power-law decay. We pinpoint the initial conditions for the power-law decay, finding two regions of sticky states. For such states, quasiperiodic orbits are found since almost for all components of the initial momentum orientation, the system is trapped inside two pockets of configurational space. The softened Henon-Heiles model presented here is intended as the simplest model in order to understand the interplay of rigidity, nonlinear interactions and relaxation for nonequilibrium systems such as glass-forming melts or soft matter. Our softened system can be applied to model β relaxation in glasses and suggest that local reorientational jumps can have an exponential and a nonexponential contribution for relaxation, the latter due to asymmetric molecules sticking in cages for certain orientations.

H I versus H α - comparing the kinematic tracers in modelling the initial conditions of the Mice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortazavi, S. Alireza; Lotz, Jennifer M.; Barnes, Joshua E.; Privon, George C.; Snyder, Gregory F.

2018-03-01

We explore the effect of using different kinematic tracers (H I and H α) on reconstructing the encounter parameters of the Mice major galaxy merger (NGC 4676A/B). We observed the Mice using the SparsePak Integral Field Unit (IFU) on the WIYN telescope, and compared the H α velocity map with VLA H I observations. The relatively high spectral resolution of our data (R ≈ 5000) allows us to resolve more than one kinematic component in the emission lines of some fibres. We separate the H α-[N II] emission of the star-forming regions from shocks using their [N II]/H α line ratio and velocity dispersion. We show that the velocity of star-forming regions agree with that of the cold gas (H I), particularly, in the tidal tails of the system. We reconstruct the morphology and kinematics of these tidal tails utilizing an automated modelling method based on the IDENTIKIT software package. We quantify the goodness of fit and the uncertainties of the derived encounter parameters. Most of the initial conditions reconstructed using H α and H I are consistent with each other, and qualitatively agree with the results of previous works. For example, we find 210± ^{50}_{40} Myr, and 180± ^{50}_{40} Myr for the time since pericentre, when modelling H α and H I kinematics, respectively. This confirms that in some cases, H α kinematics can be used instead of H I kinematics for reconstructing the initial conditions of galaxy mergers, and our automated modelling method is applicable to some merging systems.

Current Fluctuations in One Dimensional Diffusive Systems with a Step Initial Density Profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derrida, Bernard; Gerschenfeld, Antoine

2009-12-01

We show how to apply the macroscopic fluctuation theory (MFT) of Bertini, De Sole, Gabrielli, Jona-Lasinio, and Landim to study the current fluctuations of diffusive systems with a step initial condition. We argue that one has to distinguish between two ways of averaging (the annealed and the quenched cases) depending on whether we let the initial condition fluctuate or not. Although the initial condition is not a steady state, the distribution of the current satisfies a symmetry very reminiscent of the fluctuation theorem. We show how the equations of the MFT can be solved in the case of non-interacting particles. The symmetry of these equations can be used to deduce the distribution of the current for several other models, from its knowledge (Derrida and Gerschenfeld in J. Stat. Phys. 136, 1-15, 2009) for the symmetric simple exclusion process. In the range where the integrated current Qt˜sqrt{t} , we show that the non-Gaussian decay exp [- Q {/t 3}/ t] of the distribution of Q t is generic.

Use of Genetic Algorithms to solve Inverse Problems in Relativistic Hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzmán, F. S.; González, J. A.

2018-04-01

We present the use of Genetic Algorithms (GAs) as a strategy to solve inverse problems associated with models of relativistic hydrodynamics. The signal we consider to emulate an observation is the density of a relativistic gas, measured at a point where a shock is traveling. This shock is generated numerically out of a Riemann problem with mildly relativistic conditions. The inverse problem we propose is the prediction of the initial conditions of density, velocity and pressure of the Riemann problem that gave origin to that signal. For this we use the density, velocity and pressure of the gas at both sides of the discontinuity, as the six genes of an organism, initially with random values within a tolerance. We then prepare an initial population of N of these organisms and evolve them using methods based on GAs. In the end, the organism with the best fitness of each generation is compared to the signal and the process ends when the set of initial conditions of the organisms of a later generation fit the Signal within a tolerance.

Tectonic predictions with mantle convection models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coltice, Nicolas; Shephard, Grace E.

2018-04-01

Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth's mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough for an accurate prediction of instantaneous flow, but not for a prediction after 10 My of evolution. Therefore, inverse methods (sequential or data assimilation methods) using short-term fully dynamic evolution that predict surface kinematics are promising tools for a better understanding of the state of the Earth's mantle.

WRF/CMAQ AQMEII3 Simulations of U.S. Regional-Scale Ozone: Sensitivity to Processes and Inputs

EPA Science Inventory

Chemical boundary conditions are a key input to regional-scale photochemical models. In this study, performed during the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3), we perform annual simulations over North America with chemical boundary con...

The isentropic quantum drift-diffusion model in two or three space dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiuqing

2009-05-01

We investigate the isentropic quantum drift-diffusion model, a fourth order parabolic system, in space dimensions d = 2, 3. First, we establish the global weak solutions with large initial value and periodic boundary conditions. Then we show the semiclassical limit by delicate interpolation estimates and compactness argument.

Tree mortality risk of oak due to gypsy moth

Treesearch

K.W. Gottschalk; J.J. Colbert; D.L. Feicht

1998-01-01

We present prediction models for estimating tree mortality resulting from gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, defoliation in mixed oak, Quercus sp., forests. These models differ from previous work by including defoliation as a factor in the analysis. Defoliation intensity, initial tree crown condition (crown vigour), crown position, and...

Design Mining Interacting Wind Turbines.

PubMed

Preen, Richard J; Bull, Larry

2016-01-01

An initial study has recently been presented of surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms used to design vertical-axis wind turbines wherein candidate prototypes are evaluated under fan-generated wind conditions after being physically instantiated by a 3D printer. Unlike other approaches, such as computational fluid dynamics simulations, no mathematical formulations were used and no model assumptions were made. This paper extends that work by exploring alternative surrogate modelling and evolutionary techniques. The accuracy of various modelling algorithms used to estimate the fitness of evaluated individuals from the initial experiments is compared. The effect of temporally windowing surrogate model training samples is explored. A surrogate-assisted approach based on an enhanced local search is introduced; and alternative coevolution collaboration schemes are examined.

Effects of prompting and reinforcement of one response pattern upon imitation of a different modeled pattern

PubMed Central

Bondy, Andrew S.

1982-01-01

Twelve preschool children participated in a study of the effects of explicit training on the imitation of modeled behavior. The responses trained involved a marble-dropping pattern that differed from the modeled pattern. Training consisted of physical prompts and verbal praise during a single session. No prompts or praise were used during test periods. After operant levels of the experimental responses were measured, training either preceded or was interposed within a series of exposures to modeled behavior that differed from the trained behavior. Children who were initially exposed to a modeling session immediately imitated, whereas those children who were initially trained immediately performed the appropriate response. Children initially trained on one pattern generally continued to exhibit that pattern even after many modeling sessions. Children who first viewed the modeled response and then were exposed to explicit training of a different response reversed their response pattern from the trained response to the modeled response within a few sessions. The results suggest that under certain conditions explicit training will exert greater control over responding than immediate modeling stimuli. PMID:16812260

Effects of Grain Size and Twin Layer Thickness on Crack Initiation at Twin Boundaries.

PubMed

Zhou, Piao; Zhou, Jianqiu; Zhu, Yongwei; Jiang, E; Wang, Zikun

2018-04-01

A theoretical model to explore the effect on crack initiation of nanotwinned materials was proposed based on the accumulation of dislocations at twin boundaries. First, a critical cracking initiation condition was established considering the number of dislocations pill-up at TBs, grain size and twin layer thickness, and a semi-quantitative relationship between the crystallographic orientation and the stacking fault energy was built. In addition, the number of dislocations pill-up was described by introducing the theory of strain gradient. Based on this model, the effects of grain size and twin lamellae thickness on dislocation density and crack initiation at twin boundaries were also discussed. The simulation results demonstrated that the crack initiation resistance can be improved by decreasing the grain size and increasing the twin lamellae, which keeps in agreement with recent experimental findings reported in the literature.

Study of laser heated propulsion devices. Part 1: Evaluation of laser devices, fuels and energy coupling mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hofer, O. C.

1982-01-01

Closed cycle, CW waveform and short wavelength laser devices are desirable characteristics for laser propulsion. The choice of specific wavelengths for hydrogen fuel affects the operational conditions under which a laser supported absorption (LSA) wave is initiated and maintained. The mechanisms of initiating and maintaining LSA waves depend on the wavelength of the laser. Consequently, the shape and size of the hot core plasma is also dependent on wavelength and pressure. Detailed modeling of these mechanisms must be performed before their actual significance can be ascertained. Inverse bremsstrahlung absorption mechanism is the dominant mechanism for coupling energy into the plasma, but other mechanisms which are wavelength dependent can dictate the LSA wave plasma initiation and maintenance conditions. Multiphoton mechanisms become important at visible or shorter wavelengths. These are important mechanisms in creating the initial H2 gas breakdown and supplying the precursor electrons required to sustain the plasma.

FracFit: A Robust Parameter Estimation Tool for Anomalous Transport Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, J. F.; Bolster, D.; Meerschaert, M. M.; Drummond, J. D.; Packman, A. I.

2016-12-01

Anomalous transport cannot be adequately described with classical Fickian advection-dispersion equations (ADE). Rather, fractional calculus models may be used, which capture non-Fickian behavior (e.g. skewness and power-law tails). FracFit is a robust parameter estimation tool based on space- and time-fractional models used to model anomalous transport. Currently, four fractional models are supported: 1) space fractional advection-dispersion equation (sFADE), 2) time-fractional dispersion equation with drift (TFDE), 3) fractional mobile-immobile equation (FMIE), and 4) tempered fractional mobile-immobile equation (TFMIE); additional models may be added in the future. Model solutions using pulse initial conditions and continuous injections are evaluated using stable distribution PDFs and CDFs or subordination integrals. Parameter estimates are extracted from measured breakthrough curves (BTCs) using a weighted nonlinear least squares (WNLS) algorithm. Optimal weights for BTCs for pulse initial conditions and continuous injections are presented, facilitating the estimation of power-law tails. Two sample applications are analyzed: 1) continuous injection laboratory experiments using natural organic matter and 2) pulse injection BTCs in the Selke river. Model parameters are compared across models and goodness-of-fit metrics are presented, assisting model evaluation. The sFADE and time-fractional models are compared using space-time duality (Baeumer et. al., 2009), which links the two paradigms.

On the modeling of epidemics under the influence of risk perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lillo, S.; Fioriti, G.; Prioriello, M. L.

An epidemic spreading model is presented in the framework of the kinetic theory of active particles. The model is characterized by the influence of risk perception which can reduce the diffusion of infection. The evolution of the system is modeled through nonlinear interactions, whose output is described by stochastic games. The results of numerical simulations are discussed for different initial conditions.

Modeling a beaver population on the Prescott Peninsula, Massachusetts: Feasibility of LANDSAT as an input

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Finn, J. T.; Howard, R.

1981-01-01

A preliminary dynamic model of beaver spatial distribution and population growth was developed. The feasibility of locating beaver ponds on LANDSAT digital tapes, and of using this information to provide initial conditions of beaver spatial distribution for the model, and to validate model predictions is discussed. The techniques used to identify beaver ponds on LANDSAT are described.

Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of a Streamer Beside a Realistic Coronal Hole

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suess, S. T.; Wu, S. T.; Wang, A. H.; Poletto, G.

1994-01-01

Existing models of coronal streamers establish their credibility and act as the initial state for transients. The models have produced satisfactory streamer simulations, but unsatisfactory coronal hole simulations. This is a consequence of the character of the models and the boundary conditions. The models all have higher densities in the magnetically open regions than occur in coronal holes (Noci, et al., 1993).

Qualitative simulation for process modeling and control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dalle Molle, D. T.; Edgar, T. F.

1989-01-01

A qualitative model is developed for a first-order system with a proportional-integral controller without precise knowledge of the process or controller parameters. Simulation of the qualitative model yields all of the solutions to the system equations. In developing the qualitative model, a necessary condition for the occurrence of oscillatory behavior is identified. Initializations that cannot exhibit oscillatory behavior produce a finite set of behaviors. When the phase-space behavior of the oscillatory behavior is properly constrained, these initializations produce an infinite but comprehensible set of asymptotically stable behaviors. While the predictions include all possible behaviors of the real system, a class of spurious behaviors has been identified. When limited numerical information is included in the model, the number of predictions is significantly reduced.

The Interplay between Proto--Neutron Star Convection and Neutrino Transport in Core-Collapse Supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mezzacappa, A.; Calder, A. C.; Bruenn, S. W.; Blondin, J. M.; Guidry, M. W.; Strayer, M. R.; Umar, A. S.

1998-01-01

We couple two-dimensional hydrodynamics to realistic one-dimensional multigroup flux-limited diffusion neutrino transport to investigate proto-neutron star convection in core-collapse supernovae, and more specifically, the interplay between its development and neutrino transport. Our initial conditions, time-dependent boundary conditions, and neutrino distributions for computing neutrino heating, cooling, and deleptonization rates are obtained from one-dimensional simulations that implement multigroup flux-limited diffusion and one-dimensional hydrodynamics. The development and evolution of proto-neutron star convection are investigated for both 15 and 25 M⊙ models, representative of the two classes of stars with compact and extended iron cores, respectively. For both models, in the absence of neutrino transport, the angle-averaged radial and angular convection velocities in the initial Ledoux unstable region below the shock after bounce achieve their peak values in ~20 ms, after which they decrease as the convection in this region dissipates. The dissipation occurs as the gradients are smoothed out by convection. This initial proto-neutron star convection episode seeds additional convectively unstable regions farther out beneath the shock. The additional proto-neutron star convection is driven by successive negative entropy gradients that develop as the shock, in propagating out after core bounce, is successively strengthened and weakened by the oscillating inner core. The convection beneath the shock distorts its sphericity, but on the average the shock radius is not boosted significantly relative to its radius in our corresponding one-dimensional models. In the presence of neutrino transport, proto-neutron star convection velocities are too small relative to bulk inflow velocities to result in any significant convective transport of entropy and leptons. This is evident in our two-dimensional entropy snapshots, which in this case appear spherically symmetric. The peak angle-averaged radial and angular convection velocities are orders of magnitude smaller than they are in the corresponding ``hydrodynamics-only'' models. A simple analytical model supports our numerical results, indicating that the inclusion of neutrino transport reduces the entropy-driven (lepton-driven) convection growth rates and asymptotic velocities by a factor ~3 (50) at the neutrinosphere and a factor ~250 (1000) at ρ = 1012 g cm-3, for both our 15 and 25 M⊙ models. Moreover, when transport is included, the initial postbounce entropy gradient is smoothed out by neutrino diffusion, whereas the initial lepton gradient is maintained by electron capture and neutrino escape near the neutrinosphere. Despite the maintenance of the lepton gradient, proto-neutron star convection does not develop over the 100 ms duration typical of all our simulations, except in the instance where ``low-test'' intial conditions are used, which are generated by core-collapse and bounce simulations that neglect neutrino-electron scattering and ion-ion screening corrections to neutrino-nucleus elastic scattering. Models favoring the development of proto-neutron star convection either by starting with more favorable, albeit artificial (low-test), initial conditions or by including transport corrections that were ignored in our ``fiducial'' models were considered. Our conclusions nonetheless remained the same. Evidence of proto-neutron star convection in our two-dimensional entropy snapshots was minimal, and, as in our fiducial models, the angle-averaged convective velocities when neutrino transport was included remained orders of magnitude smaller than their counterparts in the corresponding hydrodynamics-only models.

Nonlinear modelling of cancer: bridging the gap between cells and tumours

PubMed Central

Lowengrub, J S; Frieboes, H B; Jin, F; Chuang, Y-L; Li, X; Macklin, P; Wise, S M; Cristini, V

2010-01-01

Despite major scientific, medical and technological advances over the last few decades, a cure for cancer remains elusive. The disease initiation is complex, and including initiation and avascular growth, onset of hypoxia and acidosis due to accumulation of cells beyond normal physiological conditions, inducement of angiogenesis from the surrounding vasculature, tumour vascularization and further growth, and invasion of surrounding tissue and metastasis. Although the focus historically has been to study these events through experimental and clinical observations, mathematical modelling and simulation that enable analysis at multiple time and spatial scales have also complemented these efforts. Here, we provide an overview of this multiscale modelling focusing on the growth phase of tumours and bypassing the initial stage of tumourigenesis. While we briefly review discrete modelling, our focus is on the continuum approach. We limit the scope further by considering models of tumour progression that do not distinguish tumour cells by their age. We also do not consider immune system interactions nor do we describe models of therapy. We do discuss hybrid-modelling frameworks, where the tumour tissue is modelled using both discrete (cell-scale) and continuum (tumour-scale) elements, thus connecting the micrometre to the centimetre tumour scale. We review recent examples that incorporate experimental data into model parameters. We show that recent mathematical modelling predicts that transport limitations of cell nutrients, oxygen and growth factors may result in cell death that leads to morphological instability, providing a mechanism for invasion via tumour fingering and fragmentation. These conditions induce selection pressure for cell survivability, and may lead to additional genetic mutations. Mathematical modelling further shows that parameters that control the tumour mass shape also control its ability to invade. Thus, tumour morphology may serve as a predictor of invasiveness and treatment prognosis. PMID:20808719

Nonlinear modelling of cancer: bridging the gap between cells and tumours

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowengrub, J. S.; Frieboes, H. B.; Jin, F.; Chuang, Y.-L.; Li, X.; Macklin, P.; Wise, S. M.; Cristini, V.

2010-01-01

Despite major scientific, medical and technological advances over the last few decades, a cure for cancer remains elusive. The disease initiation is complex, and including initiation and avascular growth, onset of hypoxia and acidosis due to accumulation of cells beyond normal physiological conditions, inducement of angiogenesis from the surrounding vasculature, tumour vascularization and further growth, and invasion of surrounding tissue and metastasis. Although the focus historically has been to study these events through experimental and clinical observations, mathematical modelling and simulation that enable analysis at multiple time and spatial scales have also complemented these efforts. Here, we provide an overview of this multiscale modelling focusing on the growth phase of tumours and bypassing the initial stage of tumourigenesis. While we briefly review discrete modelling, our focus is on the continuum approach. We limit the scope further by considering models of tumour progression that do not distinguish tumour cells by their age. We also do not consider immune system interactions nor do we describe models of therapy. We do discuss hybrid-modelling frameworks, where the tumour tissue is modelled using both discrete (cell-scale) and continuum (tumour-scale) elements, thus connecting the micrometre to the centimetre tumour scale. We review recent examples that incorporate experimental data into model parameters. We show that recent mathematical modelling predicts that transport limitations of cell nutrients, oxygen and growth factors may result in cell death that leads to morphological instability, providing a mechanism for invasion via tumour fingering and fragmentation. These conditions induce selection pressure for cell survivability, and may lead to additional genetic mutations. Mathematical modelling further shows that parameters that control the tumour mass shape also control its ability to invade. Thus, tumour morphology may serve as a predictor of invasiveness and treatment prognosis.

An assessment of RELAP5-3D using the Edwards-O'Brien Blowdown problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tomlinson, E.T.; Aumiller, D.L.

1999-07-01

The RELAP5-3D (version bt) computer code was used to assess the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Standard Problem 1 (Edwards-O'Brien Blowdown Test). The RELAP5-3D standard installation problem based on the Edwards-O'Brien Blowdown Test was modified to model the appropriate initial conditions and to represent the proper location of the instruments present in the experiment. The results obtained using the modified model are significantly different from the original calculation indicating the need to model accurately the experimental conditions if an accurate assessment of the calculational model is to be obtained.

Data book for 12.5-inch diameter SRB thermal model water flotation test: 14.7 psia, series P020

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allums, S. L.

1974-01-01

Data acquired from the initial series of tests conducted to determine how thermal conditions affect SRB (Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster) flotation are presented. Acceleration, pressure, and temperature data recorded from initial water impact to final flotation position using a 12.5-inch diameter thermal model of the SRB at ambient pressure are included. The model was 136.9 inches long and weighed 117.3 lbm. The tests indicated the following differences from ambient temperature tests: (1) significant negative static pressures can occur during penetration; (2) maximum penetration is increased; and (3) final flotation is in the spar buoy mode.

Towards a coastal ocean forecasting system in Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian seas based on unstructured-grid model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Federico, Ivan; Oddo, Paolo; Pinardi, Nadia; Coppini, Giovanni

2014-05-01

The Southern Adriatic Northern Ionian Forecasting System (SANIFS) operational chain is based on a nesting approach. The large scale model for the entire Mediterranean basin (MFS, Mediterranean Forecasting system, operated by INGV, e.g. Tonani et al. 2008, Oddo et al. 2009) provides lateral open boundary conditions to the regional model for Adriatic and Ionian seas (AIFS, Adriatic Ionian Forecasting System) which provides the open-sea fields (initial conditions and lateral open boundary conditions) to SANIFS. The latter, here presented, is a coastal ocean model based on SHYFEM (Shallow HYdrodynamics Finite Element Model) code, which is an unstructured grid, finite element three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (e.g. Umgiesser et al., 2004, Ferrarin et al., 2013). The SANIFS hydrodynamic model component has been designed to provide accurate information of hydrodynamics and active tracer fields in the coastal waters of Southern Eastern Italy (Apulia, Basilicata and Calabria regions), where the model is characterized by a resolution of about of 200-500 m. The horizontal resolution is also accurate in open-sea areas, where the elements size is approximately 3 km. During the development phase the model has been initialized and forced at the lateral open boundaries through a full nesting strategy directly with the MFS fields. The heat fluxes has been computed by bulk formulae using as input data the operational analyses of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Short range pre-operational forecast tests have been performed in different seasons to evaluate the robustness of the implemented model in different oceanographic conditions. Model results are validated by means of comparison with MFS operational results and observations. The model is able to reproduce the large-scale oceanographic structures of the area (keeping similar structures of MFS in open sea), while in the coastal area significant improvements in terms of reproduced structures and dynamics are evident.

The impact of nudging coefficient for the initialization on the atmospheric flow field and the photochemical ozone concentration of Seoul, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Hyun-Jung; Lee, Hwa Woon; Sung, Kyoung-Hee; Kim, Min-Jung; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Jung, Woo-Sik

In order to incorporate correctly the large or local scale circulation in the model, a nudging term is introduced into the equation of motion. Nudging effects should be included properly in the model to reduce the uncertainties and improve the air flow field. To improve the meteorological components, the nudging coefficient should perform the adequate influence on complex area for the model initialization technique which related to data reliability and error suppression. Several numerical experiments have been undertaken in order to evaluate the effects on air quality modeling by comparing the performance of the meteorological result with variable nudging coefficient experiment. All experiments are calculated by the upper wind conditions (synoptic or asynoptic condition), respectively. Consequently, it is important to examine the model response to nudging effect of wind and mass information. The MM5-CMAQ model was used to assess the ozone differences in each case, during the episode day in Seoul, Korea and we revealed that there were large differences in the ozone concentration for each run. These results suggest that for the appropriate simulation of large or small-scale circulations, nudging considering the synoptic and asynoptic nudging coefficient does have a clear advantage over dynamic initialization, so appropriate limitation of these nudging coefficient values on its upper wind conditions is necessary before making an assessment. The statistical verifications showed that adequate nudging coefficient for both wind and temperature data throughout the model had a consistently positive impact on the atmospheric and air quality field. On the case dominated by large-scale circulation, a large nudging coefficient shows a minor improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field. However, when small-scale convection is present, the large nudging coefficient produces consistent improvement in the atmospheric and air quality field.

Monitoring Air Quality over China: Evaluation of the modeling system of the PANDA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouarar, Idir; Katinka Petersen, Anna; Brasseur, Guy; Granier, Claire; Xie, Ying; Wang, Xuemei; Fan, Qi; Wang, Lili

2015-04-01

Air pollution has become a pressing problem in Asia and specifically in China due to rapid increase in anthropogenic emissions related to growth of China's economic activity and increasing demand for energy in the past decade. Observed levels of particulate matter and ozone regularly exceed World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines in many parts of the country leading to increased risk of respiratory illnesses and other health problems. The EU-funded project PANDA aims to establish a team of European and Chinese scientists to monitor air pollution over China and elaborate air quality indicators in support of European and Chinese policies. PANDA combines state-of-the-art air pollution modeling with space and surface observations of chemical species to improve methods for monitoring air quality. The modeling system of the PANDA project follows a downscaling approach: global models such as MOZART and MACC system provide initial and boundary conditions to regional WRF-Chem and EMEP simulations over East Asia. WRF-Chem simulations at higher resolution (e.g. 20km) are then performed over a smaller domain covering East China and initial and boundary conditions from this run are used to perform simulations at a finer resolution (e.g. 5km) over specific megacities like Shanghai. Here we present results of model simulations for January and July 2010 performed during the first year of the project. We show an intercomparison of the global (MACC, EMEP) and regional (WRF-Chem) simulations and a comprehensive evaluation with satellite measurements (NO2, CO) and in-situ data (O3, CO, NOx, PM10 and PM2.5) at several surface stations. Using the WRF-Chem model, we demonstrate that model performance is influenced not only by the resolution (e.g. 60km, 20km) but also the emission inventories used (MACCity, HTAPv2), their resolution and diurnal variation, and the choice of initial and boundary conditions (e.g. MOZART, MACC analysis).

Basin deconstruction-construction: Seeking thermal-tectonic consistency through the integration of geochemical thermal indicators and seismic fault mechanical stratigraphy ​- Example from Faras Field, North Western Desert, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pigott, John D.; Abouelresh, Mohamed O.

2016-02-01

To construct a model of a sedimentary basin's thermal tectonic history is first to deconstruct it: taking apart its geological elements, searching for its initial conditions, and then to reassemble the elements in the temporal order that the basin is assumed to have evolved. Two inherent difficulties implicit to the analysis are that most organic thermal indicators are cumulative, irreversible and a function of both temperature and time and the non-uniqueness of crustal strain histories which complicates tectonic interpretations. If the initial conditions (e.g. starting maturity of the reactants and initial crustal temperature) can be specified and the boundary conditions incrementally designated from changes in the lithospheric heat engine owing to stratigraphic structural constraints, then the number of pathways for the temporal evolution of a basin is greatly reduced. For this investigation, model input uncertainties are reduced through seeking a solution that iteratively integrates the geologically constrained tectonic subsidence, geochemically constrained thermal indicators, and geophysically constrained fault mechanical stratigraphy. The Faras oilfield in the Abu Gharadig Basin, North Western Desert, Egypt, provides an investigative example of such a basin's deconstructive procedure. Multiple episodes of crustal extension and shortening are apparent in the tectonic subsidence analyses which are constrained from the fault mechanical stratigraphy interpreted from reflection seismic profiles. The model was iterated with different thermal boundary conditions until outputs best fit the geochemical observations. In so doing, the thermal iterations demonstrate that general relationship that basin heat flow increases decrease vertical model maturity gradients, increases in surface temperatures shift vertical maturity gradients linearly to higher values, increases in sediment conductivities lower vertical maturities with depth, and the addition of ;ghost; layers (those layers removed) prior to the erosional event increase maturities beneath, and conversely. These integrated constraints upon the basin evolution model indicate that the principal source rocks, Khatatba and the lowest part of the Alam El Bueib formations, entered the oil window at approximately 95 Ma and the gas window at approximately 25 Ma. The upper part of the Alam El Bueib Formation is within the oil window at the present day. Establishing initial and boundary value conditions for a basin's thermal evolution when geovalidated by the integration of seismic fault mechanical stratigraphy, tectonic subsidence analysis, and organic geochemical maturity indicators provides a powerful tool for optimizing petroleum exploration in both mature and frontier basins.

Maximum spreading of liquid drop on various substrates with different wettabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, Raihan; Choi, Junho; Yang, Sangsun; Kim, Yong-Jin; Lee, Donggeun

2017-09-01

This paper describes a novel model developed for a priori prediction of the maximal spread of a liquid drop on a surface. As a first step, a series of experiments were conducted under precise control of the initial drop diameter, its falling height, roughness, and wettability of dry surfaces. The transient liquid spreading was recorded by a high-speed camera to obtain its maximum spreading under various conditions. Eight preexisting models were tested for accurate prediction of the maximum spread; however, most of the model predictions were not satisfactory except one, in comparison with our experimental data. A comparative scaling analysis of the literature models was conducted to elucidate the condition-dependent prediction characteristics of the models. The conditioned bias in the predictions was mainly attributed to the inappropriate formulations of viscous dissipation or interfacial energy of liquid on the surface. Hence, a novel model based on energy balance during liquid impact was developed to overcome the limitations of the previous models. As a result, the present model was quite successful in predicting the liquid spread in all the conditions.

Hygroscopic aerosol deposition in the human upper respiratory tract under various thermo-humidity conditions.

PubMed

Xi, Jinxiang; Kim, Jongwon; Si, Xiuhua A; Zhou, Yue

2013-01-01

The deposition of hygroscopic aerosols is highly complex in nature, which results from a cumulative effect of dynamic particle growth and the real-time size-specific deposition mechanisms. The objective of this study is to evaluate hygroscopic effects on the particle growth, transport, and deposition of nasally inhaled aerosols across a range of 0.2-2.5 μm in an adult image-based nose-throat model. Temperature and relative humidity fields were simulated using the LRN k-ω turbulence model and species transport model under a spectrum of thermo-humidity conditions. Particle growth and transport were simulated using a well validated Lagrangian tracking model coupled with a user-defined hygroscopic growth module. Results of this study indicate that the saturation level and initial particle size are the two major factors that determine the particle growth rate (d/d0), while the effect of inhalation flow rate is found to be not significant. An empirical correlation of condensation growth of nasally inhaled hygroscopic aerosols in adults has been developed based on a variety of thermo-humidity inhalation conditions. Significant elevated nasal depositions of hygroscopic aerosols could be induced by condensation growth for both sub-micrometer and small micrometer particulates. In particular, the deposition of initially 2.5 μm hygroscopic aerosols was observed to be 5-8 times that of inert particles under warm to hot saturated conditions. Results of this study have important implications in exposure assessment in hot humid environments, where much higher risks may be expected compared to normal conditions.

Initial condition of stochastic self-assembly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Jason K.; Sindi, Suzanne S.

2016-02-01

The formation of a stable protein aggregate is regarded as the rate limiting step in the establishment of prion diseases. In these systems, once aggregates reach a critical size the growth process accelerates and thus the waiting time until the appearance of the first critically sized aggregate is a key determinant of disease onset. In addition to prion diseases, aggregation and nucleation is a central step of many physical, chemical, and biological process. Previous studies have examined the first-arrival time at a critical nucleus size during homogeneous self-assembly under the assumption that at time t =0 the system was in the all-monomer state. However, in order to compare to in vivo biological experiments where protein constituents inherited by a newly born cell likely contain intermediate aggregates, other possibilities must be considered. We consider one such possibility by conditioning the unique ergodic size distribution on subcritical aggregate sizes; this least-informed distribution is then used as an initial condition. We make the claim that this initial condition carries fewer assumptions than an all-monomer one and verify that it can yield significantly different averaged waiting times relative to the all-monomer condition under various models of assembly.

Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) Model Development: Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metcalf, Kenneth J.

2011-01-01

Power management and distribution (PMAD) models were developed in the early 1990's to model candidate architectures for various Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) missions. They were used to generate "ballpark" component mass estimates to support conceptual PMAD system design studies. The initial set of models was provided to NASA Lewis Research Center (since renamed Glenn Research Center) in 1992. They were developed to estimate the characteristics of power conditioning components predicted to be available in the 2005 timeframe. Early 90's component and device designs and material technologies were projected forward to the 2005 timeframe, and algorithms reflecting those design and material improvements were incorporated into the models to generate mass, volume, and efficiency estimates for circa 2005 components. The models are about ten years old now and NASA GRC requested a review of them to determine if they should be updated to bring them into agreement with current performance projections or to incorporate unforeseen design or technology advances. This report documents the results of this review and the updated power conditioning models and new transmission line models generated to estimate post 2005 PMAD system masses and sizes. This effort continues the expansion and enhancement of a library of PMAD models developed to allow system designers to assess future power system architectures and distribution techniques quickly and consistently.

Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models

PubMed Central

Knight, Christopher G.; Knight, Sylvia H. E.; Massey, Neil; Aina, Tolu; Christensen, Carl; Frame, Dave J.; Kettleborough, Jamie A.; Martin, Andrew; Pascoe, Stephen; Sanderson, Ben; Stainforth, David A.; Allen, Myles R.

2007-01-01

In complex spatial models, as used to predict the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions, parameter variation within plausible bounds has major effects on model behavior of interest. Here, we present an unprecedentedly large ensemble of >57,000 climate model runs in which 10 parameters, initial conditions, hardware, and software used to run the model all have been varied. We relate information about the model runs to large-scale model behavior (equilibrium sensitivity of global mean temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide). We demonstrate that effects of parameter, hardware, and software variation are detectable, complex, and interacting. However, we find most of the effects of parameter variation are caused by a small subset of parameters. Notably, the entrainment coefficient in clouds is associated with 30% of the variation seen in climate sensitivity, although both low and high values can give high climate sensitivity. We demonstrate that the effect of hardware and software is small relative to the effect of parameter variation and, over the wide range of systems tested, may be treated as equivalent to that caused by changes in initial conditions. We discuss the significance of these results in relation to the design and interpretation of climate modeling experiments and large-scale modeling more generally. PMID:17640921

Initial Probabilistic Evaluation of Reactor Pressure Vessel Fracture with Grizzly and Raven

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spencer, Benjamin; Hoffman, William; Sen, Sonat

2015-10-01

The Grizzly code is being developed with the goal of creating a general tool that can be applied to study a variety of degradation mechanisms in nuclear power plant components. The first application of Grizzly has been to study fracture in embrittled reactor pressure vessels (RPVs). Grizzly can be used to model the thermal/mechanical response of an RPV under transient conditions that would be observed in a pressurized thermal shock (PTS) scenario. The global response of the vessel provides boundary conditions for local models of the material in the vicinity of a flaw. Fracture domain integrals are computed to obtainmore » stress intensity factors, which can in turn be used to assess whether a fracture would initiate at a pre-existing flaw. These capabilities have been demonstrated previously. A typical RPV is likely to contain a large population of pre-existing flaws introduced during the manufacturing process. This flaw population is characterized stastistically through probability density functions of the flaw distributions. The use of probabilistic techniques is necessary to assess the likelihood of crack initiation during a transient event. This report documents initial work to perform probabilistic analysis of RPV fracture during a PTS event using a combination of the RAVEN risk analysis code and Grizzly. This work is limited in scope, considering only a single flaw with deterministic geometry, but with uncertainty introduced in the parameters that influence fracture toughness. These results are benchmarked against equivalent models run in the FAVOR code. When fully developed, the RAVEN/Grizzly methodology for modeling probabilistic fracture in RPVs will provide a general capability that can be used to consider a wider variety of vessel and flaw conditions that are difficult to consider with current tools. In addition, this will provide access to advanced probabilistic techniques provided by RAVEN, including adaptive sampling and parallelism, which can dramatically decrease run times.« less

Initial results of the Global Thermospheric Mapping Study (GTMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliver, W. L.; Salah, J. E.; Musgrove, R. G.; Holt, J. M.; Wickwar, V. B.; Hernandez, G. J.; Roble, R. G.

1986-01-01

The Global Thermospheric Mapping Study (GTMS) is a multi-technique experimental study of the thermosphere designed to map simultaneously its spatial and temporal morphology with a thoroughness and diversity of measurement techniques heretofore unachieved. The GTMS is designed around the Incoherent Scatter Radar Chain in the western hemisphere. The European incoherent scatter radars and the worldwide communities of Fabry-Perot interferometers, meteor wind radars, partial reflection drifts radars, MST radars, and satellite probes are included to extend the spatial coverage and types of measurements available. Theoretical and modeling support in the areas of thermospheric and ionospheric structure, tides, and electric fields are included to aid in program planning and data interpretation. Solar activity was low on the three observation days (F10.7 = 97, 98, 96) and magnetic conditions were unsettled to active (A = 10, 12, 20). All six incoherent scatter radar facilities collected data. Each collected F region data day and night while Saint Santin and Millstone Hill additionally collected E region data during daylight hours. Initial results from Sondrestrom and Millstone Hill are presented. Good quality Fabry Perot data were collected at Fritz Peak and San Jose dos Campos. Weather conditions produced poor results at Arequipa and Arecibo. Initial results from Fritz Peak are presented. Mesosphere/lower-thermosphere observations were conducted under the ATMAP organization. The magnetometer chains also were operational during this campaign. Initial thermospheric general circulation model predictions were made for assumed solar-geophysical conditions, and selected results are presented.

MOSAIC : Model of Sustainability and Integrated Corridors : [research summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-02-01

In order to improve transportation, environmental, and livability : conditions for Maryland residents and visitors, the Maryland : State Highway Administration (SHA) initiated planning efforts to : improve critical highway corridors and promote susta...

Two-actor conflict with time delay: A dynamical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qubbaj, Murad R.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata

2012-11-01

Recent mathematical dynamical models of the conflict between two different actors, be they nations, groups, or individuals, have been developed that are capable of predicting various outcomes depending on the chosen feedback strategies, initial conditions, and the previous states of the actors. In addition to these factors, this paper examines the effect of time delayed feedback on the conflict dynamics. Our analysis shows that under certain initial and feedback conditions, a stable neutral equilibrium of conflict may destabilize for some critical values of time delay, and the two actors may evolve to new emotional states. We investigate the results by constructing critical delay surfaces for different sets of parameters and analyzing results from numerical simulations. These results provide new insights regarding conflict and conflict resolution and may help planners in adjusting and assessing their strategic decisions.

Modelling of streamer ignition and propagation in the system of two approaching hydrometeors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jansky, J.; Pasko, V. P.

2017-12-01

The lightning initiation in low thundercloud fields represents an unsolved problem in lightning discharge physics. One of the initial conditions required for formation of a hot leader channel is initiation of non-thermal streamer discharges. Streamers can be initiated from electron avalanches, however, the problem of existence of an electric field strong enough for streamer initiation in thunderclouds is still open. The maximum electric field in thunderstorms measured by balloons is typically 3-4 kV cm-1 atm-1, that is significantly smaller than the breakdown electric field needed for avalanche multiplication of electrons Ek≃28.7 kV cm-1 atm-1. One of the possible explanations for the streamer corona initiation is that hydrometeors greatly intensify the local electric field by at least an order of magnitude to initiate an electron avalanche. It was suggested that a particle pair or chain create more favorable conditions for initiation of lightning discharge than a single precipitation particle in low electric fields. Recently Cai et al. [GRL, 44, 5758-5765, 2017] analyzed the ignition conditions for two hydrometeors of same radii. In the present work we use streamer fluid model to study streamer initiation scenarios in a system of two hydrometeors with different radii. When the hydrometeors are approaching the Townsend discharge may develop first between them. Then the Townsend discharge transforms to streamer and two hydrometeors connect electrically, which leads to increase of the electric field on the outside hemispheres of hydrometeors. This increase of field for two particles of same radii was analyzed by Cooray et al. [Proceedings of 24th International Conference on Lightning Protection, Birmingham, United Kingdom, 1998]. The combination of small and large hydrometeors leads to higher enhancement on the outside of small hydrometeor. Simulation results show that streamer ignites there and propagates away from two hydrometeors. The streamer ignites at fields below Meek criterion due to the effects of photoionization feedback [Naidis, JPD, 38, 2211-2214, 2005; Liu et al., JASTP, 80, 179-186, 2012].

Logarithmic speed-up of relaxation in A -B annihilation with exclusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dandekar, Rahul

2018-04-01

We show that the decay of the density of active particles in the reaction A +B →0 in one dimension, with exclusion interaction, results in logarithmic corrections to the expected power law decay, when the starting initial condition (i.c.) is periodic. It is well known that the late-time density of surviving particles goes as t-1 /4 with random initial conditions, and as t-1 /2 with alternating initial conditions (A B A B A B ⋯ ). We show that the decay for periodic i.c.'s made of longer blocks (AnBnAnBn⋯ ) do not show a pure power-law decay when n is even. By means of first-passage Monte Carlo simulations, and a mapping to a q -state coarsening model which can be solved in the independent interval approximation (IIA), we show that the late-time decay of the density of surviving particles goes as t-1 /2[ln(t ) ] -1 for n even, but as t-1 /2 when n is odd. We relate this kinetic symmetry breaking in the Glauber Ising model. We also see a very slow crossover from a t-1 /2[ln(t ) ] -1 regime to eventual t-1 /2 behavior for i.c.'s made of mixtures of odd- and even-length blocks.

Optimization of the photoelectrocatalytic oxidation of landfill leachate using copper and nitrate co-doped TiO2 (Ti) by response surface methodology

PubMed Central

Zhou, Shaoqi; Feng, Xinbin

2017-01-01

In this paper, a statistically-based experimental design with response surface methodology (RSM) was employed to examine the effects of functional conditions on the photoelectrocatalytic oxidation of landfill leachate using a Cu/N co-doped TiO2 (Ti) electrode. The experimental design method was applied to response surface modeling and the optimization of the operational parameters of the photoelectro-catalytic degradation of landfill leachate using TiO2 as a photo-anode. The variables considered were the initial chemical oxygen demand (COD) concentration, pH and the potential bias. Two dependent parameters were either directly measured or calculated as responses: chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal and total organic carbon (TOC) removal. The results of this investigation reveal that the optimum conditions are an initial pH of 10.0, 4377.98mgL-1 initial COD concentration and 25.0 V of potential bias. The model predictions and the test data were in satisfactory agreement. COD and TOC removals of 67% and 82.5%, respectively, were demonstrated. Under the optimal conditions, GC/MS showed 73 organic micro-pollutants in the raw landfill leachate which included hydrocarbons, aromatic compounds and esters. After the landfill leachate treatment processes, 38 organic micro-pollutants disappeared completely in the photoelectrocatalytic process. PMID:28671943

The role of the antecedent soil moisture condition on the distributed hydrologic modelling of the Toce alpine basin floods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravazzani, G.; Montaldo, N.; Mancini, M.; Rosso, R.

2003-04-01

Event-based hydrologic models need the antecedent soil moisture condition, as critical boundary initial condition for flood simulation. Land-surface models (LSMs) have been developed to simulate mass and energy transfers, and to update the soil moisture condition through time from the solution of water and energy balance equations. They are recently used in distributed hydrologic modeling for flood prediction systems. Recent developments have made LSMs more complex by inclusion of more processes and controlling variables, increasing parameter number and uncertainty of their estimates. This also led to increasing of computational burden and parameterization of the distributed hydrologic models. In this study we investigate: 1) the role of soil moisture initial conditions in the modeling of Alpine basin floods; 2) the adequate complexity level of LSMs for the distributed hydrologic modeling of Alpine basin floods. The Toce basin is the case study; it is located in the North Piedmont (Italian Alps), and it has a total drainage area of 1534 km2 at Candoglia section. Three distributed hydrologic models of different level of complexity are developed and compared: two (TDLSM and SDLSM) are continuous models, one (FEST02) is an event model based on the simplified SCS-CN method for rainfall abstractions. In the TDLSM model a two-layer LSM computes both saturation and infiltration excess runoff, and simulates the evolution of the water table spatial distribution using the topographic index; in the SDLSM model a simplified one-layer distributed LSM only computes hortonian runoff, and doesn’t simulate the water table dynamic. All the three hydrologic models simulate the surface runoff propagation through the Muskingum-Cunge method. TDLSM and SDLSM models have been applied for the two-year (1996 and 1997) simulation period, during which two major floods occurred in the November 1996 and in the June 1997. The models have been calibrated and tested comparing simulated and observed hydrographs at Candoglia. Sensitivity analysis of the models to significant LSM parameters were also performed. The performances of the three models in the simulation of the two major floods are compared. Interestingly, the results indicate that the SDLSM model is able to sufficiently well predict the major floods of this Alpine basin; indeed, this model is a good compromise between the over-parameterized and too complex TDLSM model and the over-simplified FEST02 model.

The role of hydrological initial conditions on Atmospheric River floods in the Russian River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Q.; Mehran, A.; Ralph, M.; Cannon, F.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

A body of work over the last decade or so has demonstrated that most major floods along the U.S. West Coast are attributable to Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Antecedent hydrological conditions play an important part in the natural links between precipitation and floods, and this is especially the case in the Pacific Coastal region where precipitation is strongly winter-dominant, and many potentially flood-inducing events occur relatively early in the wet season. The Russian River Basin has these characteristics, the result of which is mostly dry soils at the onset of the fall precipitation season. There is therefore a tradeoff in terms of flood potential between the strength of AR events, and the time history of previous precipitation that has begun to wet soils and raise local water tables. In order to examine flood responses associated with varying precursor hydrological conditions, we first constructed a data set of AR events that were coincident with Peaks Over Threshold (POT) extreme discharge events at selected USGS stream gauges throughout the Russian River basin. We investigated the role of antecedent soil moisture and water table conditions on historical AR flooding, initially using an exploratory data analysis approach. We then implemented the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) over the entire basin and conducted modeling experiments for each of the POT events under climatological and extreme antecedent conditions. We reconstructed climatological soil moisture by assimilating in situ observations into long-term soil moisture simulations from the UCLA Western U.S. Drought Monitoring System. We explore an envelope of frequency distributions of floods given a range of AR-related extreme precipitation and various initial hydrologic conditions, which eventually should have implications for flood management decision-making.

Measurement-based perturbation theory and differential equation parameter estimation with applications to satellite gravimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Peiliang

2018-06-01

The numerical integration method has been routinely used by major institutions worldwide, for example, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), to produce global gravitational models from satellite tracking measurements of CHAMP and/or GRACE types. Such Earth's gravitational products have found widest possible multidisciplinary applications in Earth Sciences. The method is essentially implemented by solving the differential equations of the partial derivatives of the orbit of a satellite with respect to the unknown harmonic coefficients under the conditions of zero initial values. From the mathematical and statistical point of view, satellite gravimetry from satellite tracking is essentially the problem of estimating unknown parameters in the Newton's nonlinear differential equations from satellite tracking measurements. We prove that zero initial values for the partial derivatives are incorrect mathematically and not permitted physically. The numerical integration method, as currently implemented and used in mathematics and statistics, chemistry and physics, and satellite gravimetry, is groundless, mathematically and physically. Given the Newton's nonlinear governing differential equations of satellite motion with unknown equation parameters and unknown initial conditions, we develop three methods to derive new local solutions around a nominal reference orbit, which are linked to measurements to estimate the unknown corrections to approximate values of the unknown parameters and the unknown initial conditions. Bearing in mind that satellite orbits can now be tracked almost continuously at unprecedented accuracy, we propose the measurement-based perturbation theory and derive global uniformly convergent solutions to the Newton's nonlinear governing differential equations of satellite motion for the next generation of global gravitational models. Since the solutions are global uniformly convergent, theoretically speaking, they are able to extract smallest possible gravitational signals from modern and future satellite tracking measurements, leading to the production of global high-precision, high-resolution gravitational models. By directly turning the nonlinear differential equations of satellite motion into the nonlinear integral equations, and recognizing the fact that satellite orbits are measured with random errors, we further reformulate the links between satellite tracking measurements and the global uniformly convergent solutions to the Newton's governing differential equations as a condition adjustment model with unknown parameters, or equivalently, the weighted least squares estimation of unknown differential equation parameters with equality constraints, for the reconstruction of global high-precision, high-resolution gravitational models from modern (and future) satellite tracking measurements.

Simulation of fluid flow and energy transport processes associated with high-level radioactive waste disposal in unsaturated alluvium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollock, David W.

1986-01-01

Many parts of the Great Basin have thick zones of unsaturated alluvium which might be suitable for disposing of high-level radioactive wastes. A mathematical model accounting for the coupled transport of energy, water (vapor and liquid), and dry air was used to analyze one-dimensional, vertical transport above and below an areally extensive repository. Numerical simulations were conducted for a hypothetical repository containing spent nuclear fuel and located 100 m below land surface. Initial steady state downward water fluxes of zero (hydrostatic) and 0.0003 m yr−1were considered in an attempt to bracket the likely range in natural water flux. Predicted temperatures within the repository peaked after approximately 50 years and declined slowly thereafter in response to the decreasing intensity of the radioactive heat source. The alluvium near the repository experienced a cycle of drying and rewetting in both cases. The extent of the dry zone was strongly controlled by the mobility of liquid water near the repository under natural conditions. In the case of initial hydrostatic conditions, the dry zone extended approximately 10 m above and 15 m below the repository. For the case of a natural flux of 0.0003 m yr−1 the relative permeability of water near the repository was initially more than 30 times the value under hydrostatic conditions, consequently the dry zone extended only about 2 m above and 5 m below the repository. In both cases a significant perturbation in liquid saturation levels persisted for several hundred years. This analysis illustrates the extreme sensitivity of model predictions to initial conditions and parameters, such as relative permeability and moisture characteristic curves, that are often poorly known.

Hysteresis compensation of the Prandtl-Ishlinskii model for piezoelectric actuators using modified particle swarm optimization with chaotic map.

PubMed

Long, Zhili; Wang, Rui; Fang, Jiwen; Dai, Xufei; Li, Zuohua

2017-07-01

Piezoelectric actuators invariably exhibit hysteresis nonlinearities that tend to become significant under the open-loop condition and could cause oscillations and errors in nanometer-positioning tasks. Chaotic map modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO) is proposed and implemented to identify the Prandtl-Ishlinskii model for piezoelectric actuators. Hysteresis compensation is attained through application of an inverse Prandtl-Ishlinskii model, in which the parameters are formulated based on the original model with chaotic map MPSO. To strengthen the diversity and improve the searching ergodicity of the swarm, an initial method of adaptive inertia weight based on a chaotic map is proposed. To compare and prove that the swarm's convergence occurs before stochastic initialization and to attain an optimal particle swarm optimization algorithm, the parameters of a proportional-integral-derivative controller are searched using self-tuning, and the simulated results are used to verify the search effectiveness of chaotic map MPSO. The results show that chaotic map MPSO is superior to its competitors for identifying the Prandtl-Ishlinskii model and that the inverse Prandtl-Ishlinskii model can provide hysteresis compensation under different conditions in a simple and effective manner.

Verification and transfer of thermal pollution model. Volume 4: User's manual for three-dimensional rigid-lid model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. S.; Nwadike, E. V.; Sinha, S. E.

1982-01-01

The theory of a three dimensional (3-D) mathematical thermal discharge model and a related one dimensional (1-D) model are described. Model verification at two sites, a separate user's manual for each model are included. The 3-D model has two forms: free surface and rigid lid. The former allows a free air/water interface and is suited for significant surface wave heights compared to mean water depth, estuaries and coastal regions. The latter is suited for small surface wave heights compared to depth because surface elevation was removed as a parameter. These models allow computation of time dependent velocity and temperature fields for given initial conditions and time-varying boundary conditions. The free surface model also provides surface height variations with time.

Numerical Determination of Critical Conditions for Thermal Ignition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luo, W.; Wake, G. C.; Hawk, C. W.; Litchford, R. J.

2008-01-01

The determination of ignition or thermal explosion in an oxidizing porous body of material, as described by a dimensionless reaction-diffusion equation of the form .tu = .2u + .e-1/u over the bounded region O, is critically reexamined from a modern perspective using numerical methodologies. First, the classic stationary model is revisited to establish the proper reference frame for the steady-state solution space, and it is demonstrated how the resulting nonlinear two-point boundary value problem can be reexpressed as an initial value problem for a system of first-order differential equations, which may be readily solved using standard algorithms. Then, the numerical procedure is implemented and thoroughly validated against previous computational results based on sophisticated path-following techniques. Next, the transient nonstationary model is attacked, and the full nonlinear form of the reaction-diffusion equation, including a generalized convective boundary condition, is discretized and expressed as a system of linear algebraic equations. The numerical methodology is implemented as a computer algorithm, and validation computations are carried out as a prelude to a broad-ranging evaluation of the assembly problem and identification of the watershed critical initial temperature conditions for thermal ignition. This numerical methodology is then used as the basis for studying the relationship between the shape of the critical initial temperature distribution and the corresponding spatial moments of its energy content integral and an attempt to forge a fundamental conjecture governing this relation. Finally, the effects of dynamic boundary conditions on the classic storage problem are investigated and the groundwork is laid for the development of an approximate solution methodology based on adaptation of the standard stationary model.

a Generic Probabilistic Model and a Hierarchical Solution for Sensor Localization in Noisy and Restricted Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, S.; Yuan, X.

2016-06-01

A generic probabilistic model, under fundamental Bayes' rule and Markov assumption, is introduced to integrate the process of mobile platform localization with optical sensors. And based on it, three relative independent solutions, bundle adjustment, Kalman filtering and particle filtering are deduced under different and additional restrictions. We want to prove that first, Kalman filtering, may be a better initial-value supplier for bundle adjustment than traditional relative orientation in irregular strips and networks or failed tie-point extraction. Second, in high noisy conditions, particle filtering can act as a bridge for gap binding when a large number of gross errors fail a Kalman filtering or a bundle adjustment. Third, both filtering methods, which help reduce the error propagation and eliminate gross errors, guarantee a global and static bundle adjustment, who requires the strictest initial values and control conditions. The main innovation is about the integrated processing of stochastic errors and gross errors in sensor observations, and the integration of the three most used solutions, bundle adjustment, Kalman filtering and particle filtering into a generic probabilistic localization model. The tests in noisy and restricted situations are designed and examined to prove them.

A Study into the Impact of Physical Structures on the Runway Velocity Field at the Atlantic City International Airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, David, Jr.; Manson, Russell; Trout, Joseph; Decicco, Nicholas; Rios, Manny

2015-04-01

Wake vortices are generated by airplanes in flight. These vortices decay slowly and may persist for several minutes after their creation. These vortices and associated smaller scale turbulent structures present a hazard to incoming flights. It is for this reason that incoming flights are timed to arrive after these vortices have dissipated. Local weather conditions, mainly prevailing winds, can affect the transport and evolution of these vortices; therefore, there is a need to fully understand localized wind patterns at the airport-sized mircoscale. Here we have undertaken a computational investigation into the impacts of localized wind flows and physical structures on the velocity field at Atlantic City International Airport. The simulations are undertaken in OpenFOAM, an open source computational fluid dynamics software package, using an optimized geometric mesh of the airport. Initial conditions for the simulations are based on historical data with the option to run simulations based on projected weather conditions imported from the Weather Research & Forcasting (WRF) Model. Sub-grid scale turbulence is modeled using a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) approach. The initial results gathered from the WRF Model simulations and historical weather data analysis are presented elsewhere.

A Self-Consistent Model of the Interacting Ring Current Ions and Electromagnetic ICWs. Initial Results: Waves and Precipitation Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Jordanova, V. K.; Krivorutsky, E. N.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Initial results from the new developed model of the interacting ring current ions and ion cyclotron waves are presented. The model described by the system of two bound kinetic equations: one equation describes the ring current ion dynamics, and another one gives wave evolution. Such system gives a self-consistent description of the ring current ions and ion cyclotron waves in a quasilinear approach. Calculating ion-wave relationships, on a global scale under non steady-state conditions during May 2-5, 1998 storm, we presented the data at three time cuts around initial, main, and late recovery phases of May 4, 1998 storm phase. The structure and dynamics of the ring current proton precipitating flux regions and the wave active ones are discussed in detail.

The topology of large-scale structure. I - Topology and the random phase hypothesis. [galactic formation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinberg, David H.; Gott, J. Richard, III; Melott, Adrian L.

1987-01-01

Many models for the formation of galaxies and large-scale structure assume a spectrum of random phase (Gaussian), small-amplitude density fluctuations as initial conditions. In such scenarios, the topology of the galaxy distribution on large scales relates directly to the topology of the initial density fluctuations. Here a quantitative measure of topology - the genus of contours in a smoothed density distribution - is described and applied to numerical simulations of galaxy clustering, to a variety of three-dimensional toy models, and to a volume-limited sample of the CfA redshift survey. For random phase distributions the genus of density contours exhibits a universal dependence on threshold density. The clustering simulations show that a smoothing length of 2-3 times the mass correlation length is sufficient to recover the topology of the initial fluctuations from the evolved galaxy distribution. Cold dark matter and white noise models retain a random phase topology at shorter smoothing lengths, but massive neutrino models develop a cellular topology.

Design and landing dynamic analysis of reusable landing leg for a near-space manned capsule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Shuai; Nie, Hong; Zhang, Ming; Wei, Xiaohui; Gan, Shengyong

2018-06-01

To improve the landing performance of a near-space manned capsule under various landing conditions, a novel landing system is designed that employs double chamber and single chamber dampers in the primary and auxiliary struts, respectively. A dynamic model of the landing system is established, and the damper parameters are determined by employing the design method. A single-leg drop test with different initial pitch angles is then conducted to compare and validate the simulation model. Based on the validated simulation model, seven critical landing conditions regarding nine crucial landing responses are found by combining the radial basis function (RBF) surrogate model and adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) optimization method. Subsequently, the adaptability of the landing system under critical landing conditions is analyzed. The results show that the simulation effectively results match the test results, which validates the accuracy of the dynamic model. In addition, all of the crucial responses under their corresponding critical landing conditions satisfy the design specifications, demonstrating the feasibility of the landing system.

Roll Damping Derivatives from Generalized Lifting-Surface Theory and Wind Tunnel Forced-Oscillation Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pototzky, Anthony S; Murphy, Patrick C.

2014-01-01

Improving aerodynamic models for adverse loss-of-control conditions in flight is an area being researched under the NASA Aviation Safety Program. Aerodynamic models appropriate for loss of control conditions require a more general mathematical representation to predict nonlinear unsteady behaviors. As more general aerodynamic models are studied that include nonlinear higher order effects, the possibility of measurements that confound aerodynamic and structural responses are probable. In this study an initial step is taken to look at including structural flexibility in analysis of rigid-body forced-oscillation testing that accounts for dynamic rig, sting and balance flexibility. Because of the significant testing required and associated costs in a general study, it makes sense to capitalize on low cost analytical methods where possible, especially where structural flexibility can be accounted for by a low cost method. This paper provides an initial look at using linear lifting surface theory applied to rigid-body aircraft roll forced-oscillation tests.

Children With Medical Complexity: An Emerging Population for Clinical and Research Initiatives

PubMed Central

Kuo, Dennis Z.; Agrawal, Rishi; Berry, Jay G.; Bhagat, Santi K. M.; Simon, Tamara D.; Srivastava, Rajendu

2011-01-01

Children with medical complexity (CMC) have medical fragility and intensive care needs that are not easily met by existing health care models. CMC may have a congenital or acquired multisystem disease, a severe neurologic condition with marked functional impairment, and/or technology dependence for activities of daily living. Although these children are at risk of poor health and family outcomes, there are few well-characterized clinical initiatives and research efforts devoted to improving their care. In this article, we present a definitional framework of CMC that consists of substantial family-identified service needs, characteristic chronic and severe conditions, functional limitations, and high health care use. We explore the diversity of existing care models and apply the principles of the chronic care model to address the clinical needs of CMC. Finally, we suggest a research agenda that uses a uniform definition to accurately describe the population and to evaluate outcomes from the perspectives of the child, the family, and the broader health care system. PMID:21339266

A selfsimilar behavior of the urban structure in the spatially inhomogeneous model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echkina, E. Y.; Inovenkov, O. I.; Kostomarov, D. P.

2006-03-01

At present there is a strong tendency to use new methods for the description of the regional and spatial economy. In increasing frequency we consider that any economic activity is spatially dependent. The problem of the evolution of internal urban formation can be described with the exact supposition. So that is why we use partial derivative equations set with the appropriate boundary and initial conditions for the solving the problem of the urban evolution. Here we describe the model of urban population's density modification taking into account a modification of the housing quality. A program has been created which realizes difference method of mixed problem solution for population's density. For the wide class of coefficients it has been shown that the problem's solution “quickly forgets” the parts of the initial conditions and comes out to the intermediate asymptotic form, which nature depends only on the problem's operator. Actually it means that the urban structure does not depend on external circumstances and is formed by the internal structure of the model.

Simulations of the formation, evolution and clustering of galaxies and quasars.

PubMed

Springel, Volker; White, Simon D M; Jenkins, Adrian; Frenk, Carlos S; Yoshida, Naoki; Gao, Liang; Navarro, Julio; Thacker, Robert; Croton, Darren; Helly, John; Peacock, John A; Cole, Shaun; Thomas, Peter; Couchman, Hugh; Evrard, August; Colberg, Jörg; Pearce, Frazer

2005-06-02

The cold dark matter model has become the leading theoretical picture for the formation of structure in the Universe. This model, together with the theory of cosmic inflation, makes a clear prediction for the initial conditions for structure formation and predicts that structures grow hierarchically through gravitational instability. Testing this model requires that the precise measurements delivered by galaxy surveys can be compared to robust and equally precise theoretical calculations. Here we present a simulation of the growth of dark matter structure using 2,160(3) particles, following them from redshift z = 127 to the present in a cube-shaped region 2.230 billion lightyears on a side. In postprocessing, we also follow the formation and evolution of the galaxies and quasars. We show that baryon-induced features in the initial conditions of the Universe are reflected in distorted form in the low-redshift galaxy distribution, an effect that can be used to constrain the nature of dark energy with future generations of observational surveys of galaxies.

The Incorporation and Initialization of Cloud Water/ice in AN Operational Forecast Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Qingyun

Quantitative precipitation forecasts have been one of the weakest aspects of numerical weather prediction models. Theoretical studies show that the errors in precipitation calculation can arise from three sources: errors in the large-scale forecasts of primary variables, errors in the crude treatment of condensation/evaporation and precipitation processes, and errors in the model initial conditions. A new precipitation parameterization scheme has been developed to investigate the forecast value of improved precipitation physics via the introduction of cloud water and cloud ice into a numerical prediction model. The main feature of this scheme is the explicit calculation of cloud water and cloud ice in both the convective and stratiform precipitation parameterization. This scheme has been applied to the eta model at the National Meteorological Center. Four extensive tests have been performed. The statistical results showed a significant improvement in the model precipitation forecasts. Diagnostic studies suggest that the inclusion of cloud ice is important in transferring water vapor to precipitation and in the enhancement of latent heat release; the latter subsequently affects the vertical motion field significantly. Since three-dimensional cloud data is absent from the analysis/assimilation system for most numerical models, a method has been proposed to incorporate observed precipitation and nephanalysis data into the data assimilation system to obtain the initial cloud field for the eta model. In this scheme, the initial moisture and vertical motion fields are also improved at the same time as cloud initialization. The physical initialization is performed in a dynamical initialization framework that uses the Newtonian dynamical relaxation method to nudge the model's wind and mass fields toward analyses during a 12-hour data assimilation period. Results from a case study showed that a realistic cloud field was produced by this method at the end of the data assimilation period. Precipitation forecasts have been significantly improved as a result of the improved initial cloud, moisture and vertical motion fields.

Atmospheric radiance interpolation for the modeling of hyperspectral data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuehrer, Perry; Healey, Glenn; Rauch, Brian; Slater, David; Ratkowski, Anthony

2008-04-01

The calibration of data from hyperspectral sensors to spectral radiance enables the use of physical models to predict measured spectra. Since environmental conditions are often unknown, material detection algorithms have emerged that utilize predicted spectra over ranges of environmental conditions. The predicted spectra are typically generated by a radiative transfer (RT) code such as MODTRAN TM. Such techniques require the specification of a set of environmental conditions. This is particularly challenging in the LWIR for which temperature and atmospheric constituent profiles are required as inputs for the RT codes. We have developed an automated method for generating environmental conditions to obtain a desired sampling of spectra in the sensor radiance domain. Our method provides a way of eliminating the usual problems encountered, because sensor radiance spectra depend nonlinearly on the environmental parameters, when model conditions are specified by a uniform sampling of environmental parameters. It uses an initial set of radiance vectors concatenated over a set of conditions to define the mapping from environmental conditions to sensor spectral radiance. This approach enables a given number of model conditions to span the space of desired radiance spectra and improves both the accuracy and efficiency of detection algorithms that rely upon use of predicted spectra.

Acid rain: Mesoscale model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsu, H. M.

1980-01-01

A mesoscale numerical model of the Florida peninsula was formulated and applied to a dry, neutral atmosphere. The prospective use of the STAR-100 computer for the submesoscale model is discussed. The numerical model presented is tested under synoptically undisturbed conditions. Two cases, differing only in the direction of the prevailing geostrophic wind, are examined: a prevailing southwest wind and a prevailing southeast wind, both 6 m/sec at all levels initially.

A Nested Nearshore Nutrient Model (N&Sup3;M) for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Nearshore conditions drive phenomena like harmful algal blooms (HABs), and the nearshore and coastal margin are the parts of the Great Lakes most used by humans. To assess conditions, optimize monitoring, and evaluate management options, a model of nearshore nutrient transport and algal dynamics is being developed. The model targets a “regional” spatial scale, similar to the Great Lakes Aquatic Habitat Framework's sub-basins, which divide the nearshore into 30 regions. Model runs are 365 days, a whole season temporal scale, reporting at 3 hour intervals. N³M uses output from existing hydrodynamic models and simple transport kinetics. The nutrient transport component of this model is largely complete, and is being tested with various hydrodynamic data sets. The first test case covers a 200 km² area between two major tributaries to Lake Michigan, the Grand and Muskegon. N³M currently simulates phosphorous and chloride, selected for their distinct in-lake transport dynamics; nitrogen will be added. Initial results for 2003, 2010, and 2015 show encouraging correlations with field measurements. Initially implemented in MatLab, the model is currently implemented in Python and leverages multi-processor computation. The 4D in-browser visualizer Cesium is used to view model output, time varying satellite imagery, and field observations. not applicable

Statistical Properties of Differences between Low and High Resolution CMAQ Runs with Matched Initial and Boundary Conditions

EPA Science Inventory

The difficulty in assessing errors in numerical models of air quality is a major obstacle to improving their ability to predict and retrospectively map air quality. In this paper, using simulation outputs from the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), the statistic...

Stochasticity and predictability in terrestrial planet formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Volker; Grimm, Simon L.; Moore, Ben; Stadel, Joachim

2017-02-01

Terrestrial planets are thought to be the result of a vast number of gravitational interactions and collisions between smaller bodies. We use numerical simulations to show that practically identical initial conditions result in a wide array of final planetary configurations. This is a result of the chaotic evolution of trajectories which are highly sensitive to minuscule displacements. We determine that differences between systems evolved from virtually identical initial conditions can be larger than the differences between systems evolved from very different initial conditions. This implies that individual simulations lack predictive power. For example, there is not a reproducible mapping between the initial and final surface density profiles. However, some key global properties can still be extracted if the statistical spread across many simulations is considered. Based on these spreads, we explore the collisional growth and orbital properties of terrestrial planets, which assemble from different initial conditions (we vary the initial planetesimal distribution, planetesimal masses, and giant planet orbits.). Confirming past work, we find that the resulting planetary systems are sculpted by sweeping secular resonances. Configurations with giant planets on eccentric orbits produce fewer and more massive terrestrial planets on tighter orbits than those with giants on circular orbits. This is further enhanced if the initial mass distribution is biased to the inner regions. In all cases, the outer edge of the system is set by the final location of the ν6 resonance and we find that the mass distribution peaks at the ν5 resonance. Using existing observations, we find that extrasolar systems follow similar trends. Although differences between our numerical modelling and exoplanetary systems remain, we suggest that CoRoT-7, HD 20003 and HD 20781 may host undetected giant planets.

A preliminary study of the application of HCMM satellite data to define initial and boundary conditions for numerical models: A case study in St. Louis, Missouri

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vukovich, F. M. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

Infrared and visible HCMM data were used to examine the potential application of these data to define initial and boundary conditions for mesoscale numerical models. Various boundary layer models were used to calculate the distribution of the surface heat flux, specific humidity depression (the difference between the specific humidity in the air at approxmately the 10 m level and the specific humidity at the ground), and the eddy vicosity in a 72 km by 72 km area centered about St. Louis, Missouri. Various aspects of the implications of the results on the meteorology of St. Louis are discussed. Overall, the results indicated that a reasonable estimate of the surface heat flux, urban albedo, ground temperature, and specific humidity depression can be obtained using HCMM satellite data. Values of the ground-specific humidity can be obtained if the distribution of the air-specific humidity is available. More research is required in estimating the absolute magnitude of the specific humidity depression because calculations may be sensitive to model parameters.

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soltanzadeh, I.; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G. A.

2011-07-01

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.

Verification and transfer of thermal pollution model. Volume 2: User's manual for 3-dimensional free-surface model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.; Tuann, S. Y.; Lee, C. R.

1982-01-01

The six-volume report: describes the theory of a three-dimensional (3-D) mathematical thermal discharge model and a related one-dimensional (1-D) model, includes model verification at two sites, and provides a separate user's manual for each model. The 3-D model has two forms: free surface and rigid lid. The former, verified at Anclote Anchorage (FL), allows a free air/water interface and is suited for significant surface wave heights compared to mean water depth; e.g., estuaries and coastal regions. The latter, verified at Lake Keowee (SC), is suited for small surface wave heights compared to depth. These models allow computation of time-dependent velocity and temperature fields for given initial conditions and time-varying boundary conditions.

The use of NASA GEOS Global Analysis in MM5/WRF Initialization: Current Studies and Future Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pu, Zhao-Xia; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2004-01-01

An effort has been made at NASA/GSFC to use the Goddard Earth Observing system (GEOS) global analysis in generating the initial and boundary conditions for MM5/WRF simulation. This linkage between GEOS global analysis and MM5/WRF models has made possible for a few useful applications. As one of the sample studies, a series of MM5 simulations were conducted to test the sensitivity of initial and boundary conditions to MM5 simulated precipitation over the eastern; USA. Global analyses horn different operational centers (e.g., NCEP, ECMWF, I U ASA/GSFCj were used to provide first guess field and boundary conditions for MM5. Numerical simulations were performed for one- week period over the eastern coast areas of USA. the distribution and quantities of MM5 simulated precipitation were compared. Results will be presented in the workshop. In addition,other applications from recent and future studies will also be addressed.

Nonadiabatic effect on the quantum heat flux control.

PubMed

Uchiyama, Chikako

2014-05-01

We provide a general formula of quantum transfer that includes the nonadiabatic effect under periodic environmental modulation by using full counting statistics in Hilbert-Schmidt space. Applying the formula to an anharmonic junction model that interacts with two bosonic environments within the Markovian approximation, we find that the quantum transfer is divided into the adiabatic (dynamical and geometrical phases) and nonadiabatic contributions. This extension shows the dependence of quantum transfer on the initial condition of the anharmonic junction just before the modulation, as well as the characteristic environmental parameters such as interaction strength and cut-off frequency of spectral density. We show that the nonadiabatic contribution represents the reminiscent effect of past modulation including the transition from the initial condition of the anharmonic junction to a steady state determined by the very beginning of the modulation. This enables us to tune the frequency range of modulation, whereby we can obtain the quantum flux corresponding to the geometrical phase by setting the initial condition of the anharmonic junction.

Prediction of high frequency combustion instability in liquid propellant rocket engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Y. M.; Chen, C. P.; Ziebarth, J. P.; Chen, Y. S.

1992-01-01

The present use of a numerical model developed for the prediction of high-frequency combustion stabilities in liquid propellant rocket engines focuses on (1) the overall behavior of nonlinear combustion instabilities (2) the effects of acoustic oscillations on the fuel-droplet vaporization and combustion process in stable and unstable engine operating conditions, oscillating flowfields, and liquid-fuel trajectories during combustion instability, and (3) the effects of such design parameters as inlet boundary conditions, initial spray conditions, and baffle length. The numerical model has yielded predictions of the tangential-mode combustion instability; baffle length and droplet size variations are noted to have significant effects on engine stability.

Results of the Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments: ISMIP6 - initMIP-Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; Beckley, Matthew

2017-04-01

Ice sheet model initialisation has a large effect on projected future sea-level contributions and gives rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this intercomparison exercise for the continental-scale Greenland ice sheet is therefore to compare, evaluate and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community. The initMIP-Greenland project is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experimental set-up has been designed to allow comparison of the initial present-day state of the Greenland ice sheet between participating models and against observations. Furthermore, the initial states are tested with two schematic forward experiments to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss results that highlight the wide diversity of data sets, boundary conditions and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet.

Seasonal streamflow prediction using ensemble streamflow prediction technique for the Rangitata and Waitaki River basins on the South Island of New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Shailesh Kumar

2014-05-01

Streamflow forecasts are essential for making critical decision for optimal allocation of water supplies for various demands that include irrigation for agriculture, habitat for fisheries, hydropower production and flood warning. The major objective of this study is to explore the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) based forecast in New Zealand catchments and to highlights the present capability of seasonal flow forecasting of National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). In this study a probabilistic forecast framework for ESP is presented. The basic assumption in ESP is that future weather pattern were experienced historically. Hence, past forcing data can be used with current initial condition to generate an ensemble of prediction. Small differences in initial conditions can result in large difference in the forecast. The initial state of catchment can be obtained by continuously running the model till current time and use this initial state with past forcing data to generate ensemble of flow for future. The approach taken here is to run TopNet hydrological models with a range of past forcing data (precipitation, temperature etc.) with current initial conditions. The collection of runs is called the ensemble. ESP give probabilistic forecasts for flow. From ensemble members the probability distributions can be derived. The probability distributions capture part of the intrinsic uncertainty in weather or climate. An ensemble stream flow prediction which provide probabilistic hydrological forecast with lead time up to 3 months is presented for Rangitata, Ahuriri, and Hooker and Jollie rivers in South Island of New Zealand. ESP based seasonal forecast have better skill than climatology. This system can provide better over all information for holistic water resource management.

The necessity of feedback physics in setting the peak of the initial mass function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guszejnov, Dávid; Krumholz, Mark R.; Hopkins, Philip F.

2016-05-01

A popular theory of star formation is gravito-turbulent fragmentation, in which self-gravitating structures are created by turbulence-driven density fluctuations. Simple theories of isothermal fragmentation successfully reproduce the core mass function (CMF) which has a very similar shape to the initial mass function (IMF) of stars. However, numerical simulations of isothermal turbulent fragmentation thus far have not succeeded in identifying a fragment mass scale that is independent of the simulation resolution. Moreover, the fluid equations for magnetized, self-gravitating, isothermal turbulence are scale-free, and do not predict any characteristic mass. In this paper we show that, although an isothermal self-gravitating flow does produce a CMF with a mass scale imposed by the initial conditions, this scale changes as the parent cloud evolves. In addition, the cores that form undergo further fragmentation and after sufficient time forget about their initial conditions, yielding a scale-free pure power-law distribution dN/dM ∝ M-2 for the stellar IMF. We show that this problem can be alleviated by introducing additional physics that provides a termination scale for the cascade. Our candidate for such physics is a simple model for stellar radiation feedback. Radiative heating, powered by accretion on to forming stars, arrests the fragmentation cascade and imposes a characteristic mass scale that is nearly independent of the time-evolution or initial conditions in the star-forming cloud, and that agrees well with the peak of the observed IMF. In contrast, models that introduce a stiff equation of state for denser clouds but that do not explicitly include the effects of feedback do not yield an invariant IMF.

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).

PubMed

Haines, Keith; Hermanson, Leon; Liu, Chunlei; Putt, Debbie; Sutton, Rowan; Iwi, Alan; Smith, Doug

2009-03-13

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

Initial conditions for accurate N-body simulations of massive neutrino cosmologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zennaro, M.; Bel, J.; Villaescusa-Navarro, F.; Carbone, C.; Sefusatti, E.; Guzzo, L.

2017-04-01

The set-up of the initial conditions in cosmological N-body simulations is usually implemented by rescaling the desired low-redshift linear power spectrum to the required starting redshift consistently with the Newtonian evolution of the simulation. The implementation of this practical solution requires more care in the context of massive neutrino cosmologies, mainly because of the non-trivial scale-dependence of the linear growth that characterizes these models. In this work, we consider a simple two-fluid, Newtonian approximation for cold dark matter and massive neutrinos perturbations that can reproduce the cold matter linear evolution predicted by Boltzmann codes such as CAMB or CLASS with a 0.1 per cent accuracy or below for all redshift relevant to non-linear structure formation. We use this description, in the first place, to quantify the systematic errors induced by several approximations often assumed in numerical simulations, including the typical set-up of the initial conditions for massive neutrino cosmologies adopted in previous works. We then take advantage of the flexibility of this approach to rescale the late-time linear power spectra to the simulation initial redshift, in order to be as consistent as possible with the dynamics of the N-body code and the approximations it assumes. We implement our method in a public code (REPS rescaled power spectra for initial conditions with massive neutrinos https://github.com/matteozennaro/reps) providing the initial displacements and velocities for cold dark matter and neutrino particles that will allow accurate, I.e. 1 per cent level, numerical simulations for this cosmological scenario.

Characterization of Ice Roughness From Simulated Icing Encounters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, David N.; Shin, Jaiwon

1997-01-01

Detailed measurements of the size of roughness elements on ice accreted on models in the NASA Lewis Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) were made in a previous study. Only limited data from that study have been published, but included were the roughness element height, diameter and spacing. In the present study, the height and spacing data were found to correlate with the element diameter, and the diameter was found to be a function primarily of the non-dimensional parameters freezing fraction and accumulation parameter. The width of the smooth zone which forms at the leading edge of the model was found to decrease with increasing accumulation parameter. Although preliminary, the success of these correlations suggests that it may be possible to develop simple relationships between ice roughness and icing conditions for use in ice-accretion-prediction codes. These codes now require an ice-roughness estimate to determine convective heat transfer. Studies using a 7.6-cm-diameter cylinder and a 53.3-cm-chord NACA 0012 airfoil were also performed in which a 1/2-min icing spray at an initial set of conditions was followed by a 9-1/2-min spray at a second set of conditions. The resulting ice shape was compared with that from a full 10-min spray at the second set of conditions. The initial ice accumulation appeared to have no effect on the final ice shape. From this result, it would appear the accreting ice is affected very little by the initial roughness or shape features.

Development of a geotechnical GIS for subsurface characterization with three dimensional modeling capabilities.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-06-01

The New Hampshire Department of Transportation initiated this research to develop a geographical information system (GIS) that : visualizes subsurface conditions three dimensionally by pulling together geotechnical data containing spatial references....

A 3-D wellbore simulator (WELLTHER-SIM) to determine the thermal diffusivity of rock-formations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Loya, J. A.; Santoyo, E.; Andaverde, J.

2017-06-01

Acquiring thermophysical properties of rock-formations in geothermal systems is an essential task required for the well drilling and completion. Wellbore thermal simulators require such properties for predicting the thermal behavior of a wellbore and the formation under drilling and shut-in conditions. The estimation of static formation temperatures also needs the use of these properties for the wellbore and formation materials (drilling fluids and pipes, cements, casings, and rocks). A numerical simulator (WELLTHER-SIM) has been developed for modeling the drilling fluid circulation and shut-in processes of geothermal wellbores, and for the in-situ determination of thermal diffusivities of rocks. Bottomhole temperatures logged under shut-in conditions (BHTm), and thermophysical and transport properties of drilling fluids were used as main input data. To model the thermal disturbance and recovery processes in the wellbore and rock-formation, initial drilling fluid and static formation temperatures were used as initial and boundary conditions. WELLTHER-SIM uses these temperatures together with an initial thermal diffusivity for the rock-formation to solve the governing equations of the heat transfer model. WELLTHER-SIM was programmed using the finite volume technique to solve the heat conduction equations under 3-D and transient conditions. Thermal diffusivities of rock-formations were inversely computed by using an iterative and efficient numerical simulation, where simulated thermal recovery data sets (BHTs) were statistically compared with those temperature measurements (BHTm) logged in some geothermal wellbores. The simulator was validated using a well-documented case reported in the literature, where the thermophysical properties of the rock-formation are known with accuracy. The new numerical simulator has been successfully applied to two wellbores drilled in geothermal fields of Japan and Mexico. Details of the physical conceptual model, the numerical algorithm, and the validation and application results are outlined in this work.

Toward Improving Predictability of Extreme Hydrometeorological Events: the Use of Multi-scale Climate Modeling in the Northern High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Arriola, F.; Torres-Alavez, J.; Mohamad Abadi, A.; Walko, R. L.

2014-12-01

Our goal is to investigate possible sources of predictability of hydrometeorological extreme events in the Northern High Plains. Hydrometeorological extreme events are considered the most costly natural phenomena. Water deficits and surpluses highlight how the water-climate interdependence becomes crucial in areas where single activities drive economies such as Agriculture in the NHP. Nonetheless we recognize the Water-Climate interdependence and the regulatory role that human activities play, we still grapple to identify what sources of predictability could be added to flood and drought forecasts. To identify the benefit of multi-scale climate modeling and the role of initial conditions on flood and drought predictability on the NHP, we use the Ocean Land Atmospheric Model (OLAM). OLAM is characterized by a dynamic core with a global geodesic grid with hexagonal (and variably refined) mesh cells and a finite volume discretization of the full compressible Navier Stokes equations, a cut-grid cell method for topography (that reduces error in computational gradient computation and anomalous vertical dispersion). Our hypothesis is that wet conditions will drive OLAM's simulations of precipitation to wetter conditions affecting both flood forecast and drought forecast. To test this hypothesis we simulate precipitation during identified historical flood events followed by drought events in the NHP (i.e. 2011-2012 years). We initialized OLAM with CFS-data 1-10 days previous to a flooding event (as initial conditions) to explore (1) short-term and high-resolution and (2) long-term and coarse-resolution simulations of flood and drought events, respectively. While floods are assessed during a maximum of 15-days refined-mesh simulations, drought is evaluated during the following 15 months. Simulated precipitation will be compared with the Sub-continental Observation Dataset, a gridded 1/16th degree resolution data obtained from climatological stations in Canada, US, and Mexico. This in-progress research will ultimately contribute to integrate OLAM and VIC models and improve predictability of extreme hydrometeorological events.

Sea-level response to abrupt ocean warming of Antarctic ice shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattyn, Frank

2016-04-01

Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise increases steadily. A fundamental question remains whether the ice discharge will lead to marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and collapse of certain sectors of the ice sheet or whether ice loss will increase linearly with the warming trends. Therefore, we employ a newly developed ice sheet model of the Antarctic ice sheet, called f.ETISh (fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model) to simulate ice sheet response to abrupt perturbations in ocean and atmospheric temperature. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid (SSA/SIA) ice sheet model including ice shelves. Although vertically integrated, thermomechanical coupling is ensured through a simplified representation of ice sheet thermodynamics based on an analytical solution of the vertical temperature profile, including strain heating and horizontal advection. The marine boundary is represented by a flux condition either coherent with power-law basal sliding (Pollard & Deconto (2012) based on Schoof (2007)) or according to Coulomb basal friction (Tsai et al., 2015), both taking into account ice-shelf buttressing. Model initialization is based on optimization of the basal friction field. Besides the traditional MISMIP tests, new tests with respect to MISI in plan-view models have been devised. The model is forced with stepwise ocean and atmosphere temperature perturbations. The former is based on a parametrised sub-shelf melt (limited to ice shelves), while the latter is based on present-day mass balance/surface temperature and corrected for elevation changes. Surface melting is introduced using a PDD model. Results show a general linear response in mass loss to ocean warming. Nonlinear response due to MISI occurs under specific conditions and is highly sensitive to the basal conditions near the grounding line, governed by both the initial conditions and the basal sliding/deformation model. The Coulomb friction model leads to significantly higher sensitivity compared to power-law sliding. On longer time scales, West-antarctic inter-basin connections favor nonlinear response.

Improving Numerical Weather Predictions of Summertime Precipitation Over the Southeastern U.S. Through a High-Resolution Initialization of the Surface State

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Case, Jonathan L.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Krikishen, Jayanthi; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2011-01-01

It is hypothesized that high-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and sea surface temperature are necessary to improve simulations of summertime pulse-type convective precipitation in high resolution models. This paper presents model verification results of a case study period from June-August 2008 over the Southeastern U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical weather prediction model. Experimental simulations initialized with high-resolution land surface fields from the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and sea surface temperature (SST) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are compared to a set of control simulations initialized with interpolated fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 12-km North American Mesoscale model. The LIS land surface and MODIS SSTs provide a more detailed surface initialization at a resolution comparable to the 4-km model grid spacing. Soil moisture from the LIS spin-up run is shown to respond better to the extreme rainfall of Tropical Storm Fay in August 2008 over the Florida peninsula. The LIS has slightly lower errors and higher anomaly correlations in the top soil layer, but exhibits a stronger dry bias in the root zone. The model sensitivity to the alternative surface initial conditions is examined for a sample case, showing that the LIS/MODIS data substantially impact surface and boundary layer properties.

A model of the productivity of the northern pintail

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carlson, J.D.; Clark, W.R.; Klaas, E.E.

1993-01-01

We adapted a stochastic computer model to simulate productivity of the northern pintail (Anas acuta). Researchers at the Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service originally developed the model to simulate productivity of the mallard (A. platyrhynchos). We obtained data and descriptive information on the breeding biology of pintails from a literature review and from discussions with waterfowl biologists. All biological parameters in the productivity component of the mallard model (e.g, initial body weights, weight loss during laying and incubation, incubation time, clutch size, nest site selection characteristics) were compared with data on pintails and adjusted accordingly. The function in the mallard model that predicts nest initiation in response to pond conditions adequately mimicked pintail behavior and did not require adjustment.Recruitment rate was most sensitive to variations in parameters that control nest success, seasonal duckling survival rate, and yearling and adult body weight. We simulated upland and wetland habitat conditions in central North Dakota and compared simulation results with observed data. Simulated numbers were not significantly different from observed numbers of successful nests during wet, average, and dry wetland conditions. The simulated effect of predator barrier fencing in a study area in central North Dakota increased recruitment rate by an average of 18.4%. This modeling synthesized existing knowledge on the breeding biology of the northern pintail, identified necessary research, and furnished a useful tool for the examination and comparison of various management options.

Cerebellar contribution to the prediction of self-initiated sounds.

PubMed

Knolle, Franziska; Schröger, Erich; Kotz, Sonja A

2013-10-01

In everyday life we frequently make the fundamental distinction between sensory input resulting from our own actions and sensory input that is externally-produced. It has been speculated that making this distinction involves the use of an internal forward-model, which enables the brain to adjust its response to self-produced sensory input. In the auditory domain, this idea has been supported by event-related potential and evoked-magnetic field studies revealing that self-initiated sounds elicit a suppressed N100/M100 brain response compared to externally-produced sounds. Moreover, a recent study reveals that patients with cerebellar lesions do not show a significant N100-suppression effect. This result supports the theory that the cerebellum is essential for generating internal forward predictions. However, all except one study compared self-initiated and externally-produced auditory stimuli in separate conditions. Such a setup prevents an unambiguous interpretation of the N100-suppression effect when distinguishing self- and externally-produced sensory stimuli: the N100-suppression can also be explained by differences in the allocation of attention in different conditions. In the current electroencephalography (EEG)-study we investigated the N100-suppression effect in an altered design comparing (i) self-initiated sounds to externally-produced sounds that occurred intermixed with these self-initiated sounds (i.e., both sound types occurred in the same condition) or (ii) self-initiated sounds to externally-produced sounds that occurred in separate conditions. Results reveal that the cerebellum generates selective predictions in response to self-initiated sounds independent of condition type: cerebellar patients, in contrast to healthy controls, do not display an N100-suppression effect in response to self-initiated sounds when intermixed with externally-produced sounds. Furthermore, the effect is not influenced by the temporal proximity of externally-produced sounds to self-produced sounds. Controls and patients showed a P200-reduction in response to self-initiated sounds. This suggests the existence of an additional and probably more conscious mechanism for identifying self-generated sounds that does not functionally depend on the cerebellum. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Srl. All rights reserved.

Domain walls in the extensions of the Standard Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krajewski, Tomasz; Lalak, Zygmunt; Lewicki, Marek; Olszewski, Paweł

2018-05-01

Our main interest is the evolution of domain walls of the Higgs field in the early Universe. The aim of this paper is to understand how dynamics of Higgs domain walls could be influenced by yet unknown interactions from beyond the Standard Model. We assume that the Standard Model is valid up to certain, high, energy scale Λ and use the framework of the effective field theory to describe physics below that scale. Performing numerical simulations with different values of the scale Λ we are able to extend our previous analysis [1]. Our recent numerical simulations show that evolution of Higgs domain walls is rather insensitive to interactions beyond the Standard Model as long as masses of new particles are grater than 1012 GeV. For lower values of Λ the RG improved effective potential is strongly modified at field strengths crucial to the evolution of domain walls. However, we find that even for low values of Λ, Higgs domain walls decayed shortly after their formation for generic initial conditions. On the other hand, in simulations with specifically chosen initial conditions Higgs domain walls can live longer and enter the scaling regime. We also determine the energy spectrum of gravitational waves produced by decaying domain walls of the Higgs field. For generic initial field configurations the amplitude of the signal is too small to be observed in planned detectors.

Mesenchymal stem cells ameliorate impaired wound healing through enhancing keratinocyte functions in diabetic foot ulcerations on the plantar skin of rats.

PubMed

Kato, Jiro; Kamiya, Hideki; Himeno, Tatsuhito; Shibata, Taiga; Kondo, Masaki; Okawa, Tetsuji; Fujiya, Atsushi; Fukami, Ayako; Uenishi, Eita; Seino, Yusuke; Tsunekawa, Shin; Hamada, Yoji; Naruse, Keiko; Oiso, Yutaka; Nakamura, Jiro

2014-01-01

Although the initial healing stage involves a re-epithelialization in humans, diabetic foot ulceration (DFU) has been investigated using rodent models with wounds on the thigh skin, in which a wound contraction is initiated. In this study, we established a rodent model of DFU on the plantar skin and evaluated the therapeutic efficacy of bone-marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (BM-MSCs) in this model. The wounds made on the hind paws or thighs of streptozotocin induced diabetic or control rats were treated with BM-MSCs. Expression levels of phosphorylated focal adhesion kinase (pFAK), matrix metaroprotease (MMP)-2, EGF, and IGF-1, were evaluated in human keratinocytes, which were cultured in conditioned media of BM-MSCs (MSC-CM) with high glucose levels. Re-epithelialization initiated the healing process on the plantar, but not on the thigh, skin. The therapy utilizing BM-MSCs ameliorated the delayed healing in diabetic rats. In the keratinocytes cultured with MSC-CM, the decreased pFAK levels in the high glucose condition were restored, and the MMP2, EGF, and IGF-1 levels increased. Our study established a novel rat DFU model. The impaired healing process in diabetic rats was ameliorated by transplantation of BM-MSCs. This amelioration might be accounted for by the modification of keratinocyte functions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigation of Wave Energy Converter Effects on the Nearshore Environment: A Month-Long Study in Monterey Bay CA.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, Jesse D.; Chang, Grace; Magalen, Jason

2014-09-01

A modified version of an indust ry standard wave modeling tool, SNL - SWAN, was used to perform model simulations for hourly initial wave conditio ns measured during the month of October 2009. The model was run with an array of 50 wave energy converters (WECs) and compared with model runs without WECs. Maximum changes in H s were found in the lee of the WEC array along the angles of incident wave dire ction and minimal changes were found along the western side of the model domain due to wave shadowing by land. The largest wave height reductions occurredmore » during observed typhoon conditions and resulted in 14% decreases in H s along the Santa Cruz shoreline . Shoreline reductions in H s were 5% during s outh swell wave conditions and negligible during average monthly wave conditions.« less

Seasonal Prediction with the GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max; Schubert, S.; Chang, Y.

1999-01-01

A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed SST anomalies during boreal winter. Each prediction consists of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions. Forecasts are done for every winter from 1981 to 1995 using Version 2 of the GEOS GCM. Comparisons with six long-term integrations (1978-1995) using the same model are used to separate the contributions of initial and boundary conditions to forecast skill. The forecasts also allow us to isolate the SSt forced response (the signal) from the atmosphere's natural variability (the noise).

Eccentricity fluctuation effects on elliptic flow in relativistic heavy ion collisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hirano, Tetsufumi; Nara, Yasushi

2009-06-15

We study effects of eccentricity fluctuations on the elliptic flow coefficient v{sub 2} at midrapidity in both Au+Au and Cu+Cu collisions at {radical}(s{sub NN})=200 GeV by using a hybrid model that combines ideal hydrodynamics for space-time evolution of the quark gluon plasma phase and a hadronic transport model for the hadronic matter. For initial conditions in hydrodynamic simulations, both the Glauber model and the color glass condensate model are employed to demonstrate the effect of initial eccentricity fluctuations originating from the nucleon position inside a colliding nucleus. The effect of eccentricity fluctuations is modest in semicentral Au+Au collisions, but significantlymore » enhances v{sub 2} in Cu+Cu collisions.« less

Processes of aggression described by kinetic method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aristov, V. V.; Ilyin, O.

2014-12-01

In the last decades many investigations have been devoted to theoretical models in new areas concerning description of different biological, sociological and historical processes. In the present paper we suggest a model of the Nazi Germany invasion of Poland, France and USSR based on the kinetic theory. We model this process with the Cauchy boundary problem for the two-element kinetic equations with spatial initial conditions. The solution of the problem is given in the form of traveling wave. The propagation velocity of a frontline depends on the quotient between initial forces concentrations. Moreover it is obtained that the general solution of the model can be expressed in terms of quadratures and elementary functions. Finally it is shown that the frontline velocities are complied with the historical data.

Modeling ultrashort electromagnetic pulses with a generalized Kadomtsev-Petviashvili equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofstrand, A.; Moloney, J. V.

2018-03-01

In this paper we derive a properly scaled model for the nonlinear propagation of intense, ultrashort, mid-infrared electromagnetic pulses (10-100 femtoseconds) through an arbitrary dispersive medium. The derivation results in a generalized Kadomtsev-Petviashvili (gKP) equation. In contrast to envelope-based models such as the Nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equation, the gKP equation describes the dynamics of the field's actual carrier wave. It is important to resolve these dynamics when modeling ultrashort pulses. We proceed by giving an original proof of sufficient conditions on the initial pulse for a singularity to form in the field after a finite propagation distance. The model is then numerically simulated in 2D using a spectral-solver with initial data and physical parameters highlighting our theoretical results.

Modeling when and where a secondary accident occurs.

PubMed

Wang, Junhua; Liu, Boya; Fu, Ting; Liu, Shuo; Stipancic, Joshua

2018-01-31

The occurrence of secondary accidents leads to traffic congestion and road safety issues. Secondary accident prevention has become a major consideration in traffic incident management. This paper investigates the location and time of a potential secondary accident after the occurrence of an initial traffic accident. With accident data and traffic loop data collected over three years from California interstate freeways, a shock wave-based method was introduced to identify secondary accidents. A linear regression model and two machine learning algorithms, including a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), were implemented to explore the distance and time gap between the initial and secondary accidents using inputs of crash severity, violation category, weather condition, tow away, road surface condition, lighting, parties involved, traffic volume, duration, and shock wave speed generated by the primary accident. From the results, the linear regression model was inadequate in describing the effect of most variables and its goodness-of-fit and accuracy in prediction was relatively poor. In the training programs, the BPNN and LSSVM demonstrated adequate goodness-of-fit, though the BPNN was superior with a higher CORR and lower MSE. The BPNN model also outperformed the LSSVM in time prediction, while both failed to provide adequate distance prediction. Therefore, the BPNN model could be used to forecast the time gap between initial and secondary accidents, which could be used by decision makers and incident management agencies to prevent or reduce secondary collisions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope: computational fluid dynamic analyses and evaluation of the air knife model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McQuillen, Isaac; Phelps, LeEllen; Warner, Mark; Hubbard, Robert

2016-08-01

Implementation of an air curtain at the thermal boundary between conditioned and ambient spaces allows for observation over wavelength ranges not practical when using optical glass as a window. The air knife model of the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) project, a 4-meter solar observatory that will be built on Haleakalā, Hawai'i, deploys such an air curtain while also supplying ventilation through the ceiling of the coudé laboratory. The findings of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and subsequent changes to the air knife model are presented. Major design constraints include adherence to the Interface Control Document (ICD), separation of ambient and conditioned air, unidirectional outflow into the coudé laboratory, integration of a deployable glass window, and maintenance and accessibility requirements. Optimized design of the air knife successfully holds full 12 Pa backpressure under temperature gradients of up to 20°C while maintaining unidirectional outflow. This is a significant improvement upon the .25 Pa pressure differential that the initial configuration, tested by Linden and Phelps, indicated the curtain could hold. CFD post- processing, developed by Vogiatzis, is validated against interferometry results of initial air knife seeing evaluation, performed by Hubbard and Schoening. This is done by developing a CFD simulation of the initial experiment and using Vogiatzis' method to calculate error introduced along the optical path. Seeing error, for both temperature differentials tested in the initial experiment, match well with seeing results obtained from the CFD analysis and thus validate the post-processing model. Application of this model to the realizable air knife assembly yields seeing errors that are well within the error budget under which the air knife interface falls, even with a temperature differential of 20°C between laboratory and ambient spaces. With ambient temperature set to 0°C and conditioned temperature set to 20°C, representing the worst-case temperature gradient, the spatial rms wavefront error in units of wavelength is 0.178 (88.69 nm at λ = 500 nm).

An advanced process-based distributed model for the investigation of rainfall-induced landslides: The effect of process representation and boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anagnostopoulos, Grigorios G.; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2015-09-01

Extreme rainfall events are the major driver of shallow landslide occurrences in mountainous and steep terrain regions around the world. Subsurface hydrology has a dominant role on the initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides, since changes in the soil water content affect significantly the soil shear strength. Rainfall infiltration produces an increase of soil water potential, which is followed by a rapid drop in apparent cohesion. Especially on steep slopes of shallow soils, this loss of shear strength can lead to failure even in unsaturated conditions before positive water pressures are developed. We present HYDROlisthisis, a process-based model, fully distributed in space with fine time resolution, in order to investigate the interactions between surface and subsurface hydrology and shallow landslides initiation. Fundamental elements of the approach are the dependence of shear strength on the three-dimensional (3-D) field of soil water potential, as well as the temporal evolution of soil water potential during the wetting and drying phases. Specifically, 3-D variably saturated flow conditions, including soil hydraulic hysteresis and preferential flow phenomena, are simulated for the subsurface flow, coupled with a surface runoff routine based on the kinematic wave approximation. The geotechnical component of the model is based on a multidimensional limit equilibrium analysis, which takes into account the basic principles of unsaturated soil mechanics. A series of numerical simulations were carried out with various boundary conditions and using different hydrological and geotechnical components. Boundary conditions in terms of distributed soil depth were generated using both empirical and process-based models. The effect of including preferential flow and soil hydraulic hysteresis was tested together with the replacement of the infinite slope assumption with the multidimensional limit equilibrium analysis. The results show that boundary conditions play a crucial role in the model performance and that the introduced hydrological (preferential flow and soil hydraulic hysteresis) and geotechnical components (multidimensional limit equilibrium analysis) significantly improve predictive capabilities in the presented case study.

Comparison of Damage Models for Predicting the Non-Linear Response of Laminates Under Matrix Dominated Loading Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuecker, Clara; Davila, Carlos G.; Rose, Cheryl A.

2010-01-01

Five models for matrix damage in fiber reinforced laminates are evaluated for matrix-dominated loading conditions under plane stress and are compared both qualitatively and quantitatively. The emphasis of this study is on a comparison of the response of embedded plies subjected to a homogeneous stress state. Three of the models are specifically designed for modeling the non-linear response due to distributed matrix cracking under homogeneous loading, and also account for non-linear (shear) behavior prior to the onset of cracking. The remaining two models are localized damage models intended for predicting local failure at stress concentrations. The modeling approaches of distributed vs. localized cracking as well as the different formulations of damage initiation and damage progression are compared and discussed.

Foraminiferal Stable Isotope Record at Millville, NJ: Implications for the onset of the PETM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, J. D.; Miller, K. G.

2016-12-01

Traditional paleoceanographic tools (magneto-biostratigraphy, orbital cycles) are insufficient to assign rates to the initial release of carbon during the rapid onset of the PETM (<10 kyr). The ODP Leg 174AX Millville, NJ PETM section (70 m paleodepth) is >10 times more expanded relative to the thickest open ocean sites (e.g., Site 690). The onset interval at Millville is defined by a bulk carbonate δ13C of 3.5‰ across 25 cm interval. Two groups used the geochemical changes to constrain the timing for the initial pulse of carbon. Wright and Schaller (2013) focused on the differential responses in δ13C and %CaCO3 arguing that the release was fast (<1 year). Conversely, Zeebe et al. (2016) assumed the initial covariance in δ18O and δ13C represented equilibrium conditions, modeling a 4 kyr duration for the release. We generated planktonic and benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records across the onset of the PETM CIE at Millville. Most of the δ13C change recorded by foraminifera occurred over the 25 cm onset interval. However, foraminiferal δ18O values continue to decrease for another 1.5 m above the initial δ13C decrease contradicting Zeebe et al.'s assumption of equilibrium conditions. The foraminiferal stable isotope pattern is similar to the modeled response following a large, instantaneous release of light carbon to the atmosphere, that produces a rapid (decadal) scale warming in the surface air masses followed by continued warming but at a slower rate. Differential responses in δ13C, δ18O, and %CaCO3 at the onset of the PETM are consistent with an instantaneous initial release of carbon with centennial-scale warming that continued well after the initial carbon pulse similar to that predicted by climate models. Fitting the Millville isotope records to these models suggests that peak warmth followed the initial release by 100 to 200 years. The mid-shelf location of Millville a made it responsive to atmospheric changes unlike open ocean sites where thermal inertia dampens the larger atmosphere changes.

High Resolution Land Surface Modeling with the next generation Land Data Assimilation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S. V.; Eylander, J.; Peters-Lidard, C.

2005-12-01

Knowledge of land surface processes is important to many real-world applications such as agricultural production, water resources management, and flood predication. The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) has provided the USDA and other customers global soil moisture and temperature data for the past 30 years using the agrometeorological data assimilation model (now called AGRMET), merging atmospheric data. Further, accurate initialization of land surface conditions has been shown to greatly influence and improve weather forecast model and seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. The AFWA AGRMET model exploits real time precipitation observations and analyses, global forecast model and satellite data to generate global estimates of soil moisture, soil temperature and other land surface states at 48km spatial resolution. However, to truly address the land surface initialization and climate prediction problem, and to mitigate the errors introduced by the differences in spatial scales of models, representations of land surface conditions need to be developed at the same fine scales such as that of cloud resolving models. NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center has developed an offline land data assimilation system known as the Land Information System (LIS) capable of modeling land atmosphere interactions at spatial resolutions as fine as 1km. LIS provides a software architecture that integrates the use of the state of the art land surface models, data assimilation techniques, and high performance computing and data management tools. LIS also employs many high resolution surface parameters such as the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS)-era products. In this study we describe the development of a next generation high resolution land surface modeling and data assimilation system, combining the capabilities of LIS and AGRMET. We investigate the influence of high resolution land surface data and observations on the land surface conditions by comparing with the operational AGRMET outputs.

Assimilation of satellite altimeter data into an open ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogeler, Armin; SchröTer, Jens

1995-08-01

Geosat sea surface height data are assimilated into an eddy-resolving quasi-geostrophic open ocean model using the adjoint technique. The method adjusts the initial conditions for all layers and is successful on the timescale of a few weeks. Time-varying values for the open boundaries are prescribed by a much larger quasi-geostrophic model of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Both models have the same resolution of approximately 20×20 km (1/3°×1/6°), have three layers, and include realistic bottom topography and coastlines. The open model box is embedded in the African sector of the ACC. For continuous assimilation of satellite data into the larger model the nudging technique is applied. These results are used for the adjoint optimization procedure as boundary conditions and as a first guess for the initial condition. For the open model box the difference between model and satellite sea surface height that remains after the nudging experiment amounts to a 19-cm root-mean-square error (rmse). By assimilation into the regional model this value can be reduced to a 6-cm rmse for an assimilation period of 20 days. Several experiments which attempt to improve the convergence of the iterative optimization method are reported. Scaling and regularization by smoothing have to be applied carefully. Especially during the first 10 iterations, the convergence can be improved considerably by low-pass filtering of the cost function gradient. The result of a perturbation experiment shows that for longer assimilation periods the influence of the boundary values becomes dominant and they should be determined inversely by data assimilation into the open ocean model.

Seasonal Distributions of Global Ocean Chlorophyll and Nutrients: Analysis with a Coupled Ocean General Circulation Biogeochemical, and Radiative Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregg, Watson W.

1999-01-01

A coupled general ocean circulation, biogeochemical, and radiative model was constructed to evaluate and understand the nature of seasonal variability of chlorophyll and nutrients in the global oceans. The model is driven by climatological meteorological conditions, cloud cover, and sea surface temperature. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the influences of circulation and turbulence dynamics, irradiance availability, and the interactions among three functional phytoplankton groups (diatoms, chorophytes, and picoplankton) and three nutrient groups (nitrate, ammonium, and silicate). Phytoplankton groups are initialized as homogeneous fields horizontally and vertically, and allowed to distribute themselves according to the prevailing conditions. Basin-scale model chlorophyll results are in very good agreement with CZCS pigments in virtually every global region. Seasonal variability observed in the CZCS is also well represented in the model. Synoptic scale (100-1000 km) comparisons of imagery are also in good conformance, although occasional departures are apparent. Agreement of nitrate distributions with in situ data is even better, including seasonal dynamics, except for the equatorial Atlantic. The good agreement of the model with satellite and in situ data sources indicates that the model dynamics realistically simulate phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics on synoptic scales. This is especially true given that initial conditions are homogenous chlorophyll fields. The success of the model in producing a reasonable representation of chlorophyll and nutrient distributions and seasonal variability in the global oceans is attributed to the application of a generalized, processes-driven approach as opposed to regional parameterization, and the existence of multiple phytoplankton groups with different physiological and physical properties. These factors enable the model to simultaneously represent the great diversity of physical, biological, chemical, and radiative environments encountered in the global oceans.

An Empirically Calibrated Model of Cell Fate Decision Following Viral Infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coleman, Seth; Igoshin, Oleg; Golding, Ido

The life cycle of the virus (phage) lambda is an established paradigm for the way genetic networks drive cell fate decisions. But despite decades of interrogation, we are still unable to theoretically predict whether the infection of a given cell will result in cell death or viral dormancy. The poor predictive power of current models reflects the absence of quantitative experimental data describing the regulatory interactions between different lambda genes. To address this gap, we are constructing a theoretical model that captures the known interactions in the lambda network. Model assumptions and parameters are calibrated using new single-cell data from our lab, describing the activity of lambda genes at single-molecule resolution. We began with a mean-field model, aimed at exploring the population averaged gene-expression trajectories under different initial conditions. Next, we will develop a stochastic formulation, to capture the differences between individual cells within the population. The eventual goal is to identify how the post-infection decision is driven by the interplay between network topology, initial conditions, and stochastic effects. The insights gained here will inform our understanding of cell fate choices in more complex cellular systems.

A numerical method for the solution of internal pipe/channel flows in laminar or turbulent motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lourenco, L.; Essers, J. A.

1981-11-01

A computer program which is useful in the solution of problems of internal turbulent or laminar flow without recirculation is described. The flow is treated in terms of parabolic boundary layer differential equations. The eddy diffusivity concept is used to model turbulent stresses. Two turbulent models are available: the Prandtl mixing length model and the Nee-Kovasznay model for the effective viscosity. Fluid is considered incompressible, but little program modification is needed to treat compressible flows. Initial conditions are prescribed as well as the boundary conditions. The differencing scheme employed is fully implicit for the dependent variables. This allows the use of relatively large forward steps without stability problems.

Prediction of the containment of HIV infection by antiretroviral therapy - a variable structure control approach.

PubMed

Anelone, Anet J N; Spurgeon, Sarah K

2017-02-01

It is demonstrated that the reachability paradigm from variable structure control theory is a suitable framework to monitor and predict the progression of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection following initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). A manifold is selected which characterises the infection-free steady-state. A model of HIV infection together with an associated reachability analysis is used to formulate a dynamical condition for the containment of HIV infection on the manifold. This condition is tested using data from two different HIV clinical trials which contain measurements of the CD4+ T cell count and HIV load in the peripheral blood collected from HIV infected individuals for the six month period following initiation of ART. The biological rates of the model are estimated using the multi-point identification method and data points collected in the initial period of the trial. Using the parameter estimates and the numerical solutions of the model, the predictions of the reachability analysis are shown to be consistent with the clinical diagnosis at the conclusion of the trial. The methodology captures the dynamical characteristics of eventual successful, failed and marginal outcomes. The findings evidence that the reachability analysis is an appropriate tool to monitor and develop personalised antiretroviral treatment.

Adsorption of sunset yellow FCF from aqueous solution by chitosan-modified diatomite.

PubMed

Zhang, Y Z; Li, J; Li, W J; Li, Y

2015-01-01

Sunset yellow (SY) FCF is a hazardous azo dye pollutant found in food processing effluent. This study investigates the use of diatomaceous earth with chitosan (DE@C) as a modified adsorbent for the removal of SY from wastewater. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy results indicate the importance of functional groups during the adsorption of SY. The obtained N2 adsorption-desorption isotherm values accord well with IUPAC type II. Our calculations determined a surface area of 69.68 m2 g(-1) for DE@C and an average pore diameter of 4.85 nm. Using response surface methodology, optimized conditions of process variables for dye adsorption were achieved. For the adsorption of SY onto DE@C, this study establishes mathematical models for the optimization of pH, contact time and initial dye concentration. Contact time plays a greater role in the adsorption process than either pH or initial dye concentration. According to the adjusted correlation coefficient (adj-R2>0.97), the models used here are suitable for illustration of the adsorption process. Theoretical experimental conditions included a pH of 2.40, initial dye concentration of 113 mg L(-1) and 30.37 minutes of contact time. Experimental values for the adsorption rate (92.54%) were close to the values predicted by the models (95.29%).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coble, Jamie; Orton, Christopher; Schwantes, Jon

Abstract—The Multi-Isotope Process (MIP) Monitor provides an efficient approach to monitoring the process conditions in used nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities to support process verification and validation. The MIP Monitor applies multivariate analysis to gamma spectroscopy of reprocessing streams in order to detect small changes in the gamma spectrum, which may indicate changes in process conditions. This research extends the MIP Monitor by characterizing a used fuel sample after initial dissolution according to the type of reactor of origin (pressurized or boiling water reactor), initial enrichment, burn up, and cooling time. Simulated gamma spectra were used to develop and test threemore » fuel characterization algorithms. The classification and estimation models employed are based on the partial least squares regression (PLS) algorithm. A PLS discriminate analysis model was developed which perfectly classified reactor type. Locally weighted PLS models were fitted on-the-fly to estimate continuous fuel characteristics. Burn up was predicted within 0.1% root mean squared percent error (RMSPE) and both cooling time and initial enrichment within approximately 2% RMSPE. This automated fuel characterization can be used to independently verify operator declarations of used fuel characteristics and inform the MIP Monitor anomaly detection routines at later stages of the fuel reprocessing stream to improve sensitivity to changes in operational parameters and material diversions.« less

Swept-Ramp Detonation Initiation Performance in a High-Pressure Pulse Detonation Combustor

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-01

conditions at sea level, but at elevated temperatures of 300–500°F in the combustor. The current work was motivated by a need to experimentally...The current work was motivated by a need to experimentally evaluate the detonation initiation performance of a PDC at elevated combustor pressures...High-Speed Propulsion Technologies (After [3]) .....................2 Figure 2. Stationary One-Dimensional Combustion Wave Model (From [7

High temperature measurement of water vapor absorption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keefer, Dennis; Lewis, J. W. L.; Eskridge, Richard

1985-01-01

An investigation was undertaken to measure the absorption coefficient, at a wavelength of 10.6 microns, for mixtures of water vapor and a diluent gas at high temperature and pressure. The experimental concept was to create the desired conditions of temperature and pressure in a laser absorption wave, similar to that which would be created in a laser propulsion system. A simplified numerical model was developed to predict the characteristics of the absorption wave and to estimate the laser intensity threshold for initiation. A non-intrusive method for temperature measurement utilizing optical laser-beam deflection (OLD) and optical spark breakdown produced by an excimer laser, was thoroughly investigated and found suitable for the non-equilibrium conditions expected in the wave. Experiments were performed to verify the temperature measurement technique, to screen possible materials for surface initiation of the laser absorption wave and to attempt to initiate an absorption wave using the 1.5 kW carbon dioxide laser. The OLD technique was proven for air and for argon, but spark breakdown could not be produced in helium. It was not possible to initiate a laser absorption wave in mixtures of water and helium or water and argon using the 1.5 kW laser, a result which was consistent with the model prediction.

Optimization and modeling of laccase production by Trametes versicolor in a bioreactor using statistical experimental design.

PubMed

Tavares, A P M; Coelho, M A Z; Agapito, M S M; Coutinho, J A P; Xavier, A M R B

2006-09-01

Experimental design and response surface methodologies were applied to optimize laccase production by Trametes versicolor in a bioreactor. The effects of three factors, initial glucose concentration (0 and 9 g/L), agitation (100 and 180 rpm), and pH (3.0 and 5.0), were evaluated to identify the significant effects and its interactions in the laccase production. The pH of the medium was found to be the most important factor, followed by initial glucose concentration and the interaction of both factors. Agitation did not seem to play an important role in laccase production, nor did the interaction agitation x medium pH and agitation x initial glucose concentration. Response surface analysis showed that an initial glucose concentration of 11 g/L and pH controlled at 5.2 were the optimal conditions for laccase production by T. versicolor. Under these conditions, the predicted value for laccase activity was >10,000 U/L, which is in good agreement with the laccase activity obtained experimentally (11,403 U/L). In addition, a mathematical model for the bioprocess was developed. It is shown that it provides a good description of the experimental profile observed, and that it is capable of predicting biomass growth based on secondary process variables.