Reproductive performance of Rio Grande wild turkeys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.; Braun, Clait E.

1989-01-01

Frequency, magnitude, and timing of reproduction in Rio Grande Wild Turkey (Meleagris gallopavo intermedia) hens were studied in northeastern Colorado in 1986 and 1987. All adults (n = 12) and 95% (n = 20) of yearlings were known to attempt nesting. Adults initiated first nest attempts earlier than yearlings in 1987 but not 1986. Adults and yearlings did not differ in clutch size or nesting success. There was an inverse relationship between clutch size and initiation date of first nests by adults. Clutch and egg size, however, were not related. Among yearlings, body mass at capture in February was positively correlated with subsequent nest-initiation date. Environmental and social stimuli, but not winter severity, are hypothesized proximate conditions regulating reproduction in this Wild Turkey population.

Potential demographic and genetic effects of a sterilant applied to wild horse mares

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roelle, James E.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.

2015-01-01

Wild horse populations on western ranges can increase rapidly, resulting in the need for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to remove animals in order to protect the habitat that horses share with numerous other species. As an alternative to removals, BLM has sought to develop a long-term, perhaps even permanent, contraceptive to aid in reducing population growth rates. With long-term (perhaps even permanent) efficacy of contraception, however, comes increased concern about the genetic health of populations and about the potential for local extirpation. We used simulation modeling to examine the potential demographic and genetic consequences of applying a mare sterilant to wild horse populations. Using the VORTEX software package, we modeled the potential effects of a sterilant on 70 simulated populations having different initial sizes (7 values), growth rates (5 values), and genetic diversity (2 values). For each population, we varied the treatment rate of mares from 0 to 100 percent in increments of 10 percent. For each combination of these treatment levels, we ran 100 stochastic simulations, and we present the results in the form of tables and graphs showing mean population size after 20 years, mean number of removals after 20 years, mean probability of extirpation after 50 years, and mean heterozygosity after 50 years. By choosing one or two combinations of initial population size, population growth rate, and genetic diversity that best represent a herd of interest, a manager can assess the likely effects of a contraceptive program by examining the output tables and graphs representing the selected conditions.

The relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and population size: an assessment of regional and temporal variation, 1960-2005.

PubMed

Jorgenson, Andrew K; Clark, Brett

2013-01-01

This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region.

Phenotypic characterization and genealogical tracing in an Afrikaner schizophrenia database.

PubMed

Karayiorgou, Maria; Torrington, Marie; Abecasis, Gonçalo R; Pretorius, Herman; Robertson, Brian; Kaliski, Sean; Lay, Stephen; Sobin, Christina; Möller, Natalie; Lundy, S Laura; Blundell, Maude L; Gogos, Joseph A; Roos, J Louw

2004-01-01

Founder populations hold tremendous promise for mapping genes for complex traits, as they offer less genetic and environmental heterogeneity and greater potential for genealogical research. Not all founder populations are equally valuable, however. The Afrikaner population meets several criteria that make it an ideal population for mapping complex traits, including founding by a small number of initial founders that likely allowed for a relatively restricted set of mutations and a large current population size that allows identification of a sufficient number of cases. Here, we examine the potential to conduct genealogical research in this population and present initial results indicating that accurate genealogical tracing for up to 17 generations is feasible. We also examine the clinical similarities of schizophrenia cases diagnosed in South Africa and those diagnosed in other, heterogeneous populations, specifically the US. We find that, with regard to basic sample descriptors and cardinal symptoms of disease, the two populations are equivalent. It is, therefore, likely that results from our genetic study of schizophrenia will be applicable to other populations. Based on the results presented here, the history and current size of the population, as well as our previous analysis addressing the extent of background linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the Afrikaners, we conclude that the Afrikaner population is likely an appropriate founder population to map genes for schizophrenia using both linkage and LD approaches. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A new mechanistic approach for the further development of a population with established size bimodality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heerman, Lisa; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Borcherding, Jost

2017-01-01

Usually, the origin of a within-cohort bimodal size distribution is assumed to be caused by initial size differences or by one discrete period of accelerated growth for one part of the population. The aim of this study was to determine if more continuous pathways exist allowing shifts from the small to the large fraction within a bimodal age-cohort. Therefore, a Eurasian perch population, which had already developed a bimodal size-distribution and had differential resource use of the two size-cohorts, was examined. Results revealed that formation of a bimodal size-distribution can be a continuous process. Perch from the small size-cohort were able to grow into the large size-cohort by feeding on macroinvertebrates not used by their conspecifics. The diet shifts were accompanied by morphological shape changes. Intra-specific competition seemed to trigger the development towards an increasing number of large individuals. A stage-structured matrix model confirmed these assumptions. The fact that bimodality can be a continuous process is important to consider for the understanding of ecological processes and links within ecosystems.

A new mechanistic approach for the further development of a population with established size bimodality

PubMed Central

DeAngelis, Donald L.; Borcherding, Jost

2017-01-01

Usually, the origin of a within-cohort bimodal size distribution is assumed to be caused by initial size differences or by one discrete period of accelerated growth for one part of the population. The aim of this study was to determine if more continuous pathways exist allowing shifts from the small to the large fraction within a bimodal age-cohort. Therefore, a Eurasian perch population, which had already developed a bimodal size-distribution and had differential resource use of the two size-cohorts, was examined. Results revealed that formation of a bimodal size-distribution can be a continuous process. Perch from the small size-cohort were able to grow into the large size-cohort by feeding on macroinvertebrates not used by their conspecifics. The diet shifts were accompanied by morphological shape changes. Intra-specific competition seemed to trigger the development towards an increasing number of large individuals. A stage-structured matrix model confirmed these assumptions. The fact that bimodality can be a continuous process is important to consider for the understanding of ecological processes and links within ecosystems. PMID:28650963

Contributions of long-distance dispersal to population growth in colonising Pinus ponderosa populations.

PubMed

Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

2013-03-01

Long-distance dispersal is an integral part of plant species migration and population development. We aged and genotyped 1125 individuals in four disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa that were initially established by long-distance dispersal in the 16th and 17th centuries. Parentage analysis was used to determine if individuals were the product of local reproductive events (two parents present), long-distance pollen dispersal (one parent present) or long-distance seed dispersal (no parents present). All individuals established in the first century at each site were the result of long-distance dispersal. Individuals reproduced at younger ages with increasing age of the overall population. These results suggest Allee effects, where populations were initially unable to expand on their own, and were dependent on long-distance dispersal to overcome a minimum-size threshold. Our results demonstrate that long-distance dispersal was not only necessary for initial colonisation but also to sustain subsequent population growth during early phases of expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Continuous and Discrete Structured Population Models with Applications to Epidemiology and Marine Mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Tingting

In this dissertation, we develop structured population models to examine how changes in the environmental affect population processes. In Chapter 2, we develop a general continuous time size structured model describing a susceptible-infected (SI) population coupled with the environment. This model applies to problems arising in ecology, epidemiology, and cell biology. The model consists of a system of quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations coupled with a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations that represent the environment. We develop a second-order high resolution finite difference scheme to numerically solve the model. Convergence of this scheme to a weak solution with bounded total variation is proved. We numerically compare the second order high resolution scheme with a first order finite difference scheme. Higher order of convergence and high resolution property are observed in the second order finite difference scheme. In addition, we apply our model to a multi-host wildlife disease problem, questions regarding the impact of the initial population structure and transition rate within each host are numerically explored. In Chapter 3, we use a stage structured matrix model for wildlife population to study the recovery process of the population given an environmental disturbance. We focus on the time it takes for the population to recover to its pre-event level and develop general formulas to calculate the sensitivity or elasticity of the recovery time to changes in the initial population distribution, vital rates and event severity. Our results suggest that the recovery time is independent of the initial population size, but is sensitive to the initial population structure. Moreover, it is more sensitive to the reduction proportion to the vital rates of the population caused by the catastrophe event relative to the duration of impact of the event. We present the potential application of our model to the amphibian population dynamic and the recovery of a certain plant population. In addition, we explore, in details, the application of the model to the sperm whale population in Gulf of Mexico after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. In Chapter 4, we summarize the results from Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 and explore some further avenues of our research.

Establishing a beachhead: A stochastic population model with an Allee effect applied to species invasion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackleh, A.S.; Allen, L.J.S.; Carter, J.

2007-01-01

We formulated a spatially explicit stochastic population model with an Allee effect in order to explore how invasive species may become established. In our model, we varied the degree of migration between local populations and used an Allee effect with variable birth and death rates. Because of the stochastic component, population sizes below the Allee effect threshold may still have a positive probability for successful invasion. The larger the network of populations, the greater the probability of an invasion occurring when initial population sizes are close to or above the Allee threshold. Furthermore, if migration rates are low, one or more than one patch may be successfully invaded, while if migration rates are high all patches are invaded. ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Impact of Accelerating Faster than Exponential Population Growth on Genetic Variation

PubMed Central

Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models’ effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times. PMID:24381333

The impact of accelerating faster than exponential population growth on genetic variation.

PubMed

Reppell, Mark; Boehnke, Michael; Zöllner, Sebastian

2014-03-01

Current human sequencing projects observe an abundance of extremely rare genetic variation, suggesting recent acceleration of population growth. To better understand the impact of such accelerating growth on the quantity and nature of genetic variation, we present a new class of models capable of incorporating faster than exponential growth in a coalescent framework. Our work shows that such accelerated growth affects only the population size in the recent past and thus large samples are required to detect the models' effects on patterns of variation. When we compare models with fixed initial growth rate, models with accelerating growth achieve very large current population sizes and large samples from these populations contain more variation than samples from populations with constant growth. This increase is driven almost entirely by an increase in singleton variation. Moreover, linkage disequilibrium decays faster in populations with accelerating growth. When we instead condition on current population size, models with accelerating growth result in less overall variation and slower linkage disequilibrium decay compared to models with exponential growth. We also find that pairwise linkage disequilibrium of very rare variants contains information about growth rates in the recent past. Finally, we demonstrate that models of accelerating growth may substantially change estimates of present-day effective population sizes and growth times.

Dynamics of a black-capped chickadee population, 1958-1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loery, G.; Nichols, J.D.

1985-01-01

The dynamics of a wintering population of Black-capped Chickadees (Parus atricapillus) were studied from 1958-1983 using capture-recapture methods. The Jolly-Seber model was used to obtain annual estimates of population size, survival rate, and recruitment. The average estimated population size over this period was ?160 birds. The average estimated number of new birds entering the population each year and alive at the time of sampling was ?57. The arithmetic mean annual survival rate estimate was ?0.59. We tested hypothesis about possible relationships between these population parameters and (1) the natural introduction of Tufted Titmice (Parus bicolor) to the area, (2) the clear-cutting of portions of nearby red pine (Pinus resinosa) plantations, and (3) natural variations in winter temperatures. The chickadee population exhibited a substantial short-term decline following titmouse establishment, produced by decreases in both survival rate and number of new recruits. Survival rate decline somewhat after the initiation of the pine clear-cutting, but population size was very similar before and after clear-cutting. Weighted least squares analyses provided no evidence of a relationship between survival rate and either of two winter temperature variables.

Stochastic Switching Induced Adaptation in a Starved Escherichia coli Population

PubMed Central

Ito, Yoichiro; Ying, Bei-Wen; Yomo, Tetsuya

2011-01-01

Population adaptation can be determined by stochastic switching in living cells. To examine how stochastic switching contributes to the fate decision for a population under severe stress, we constructed an Escherichia coli strain crucially dependent on the expression of a rewired gene. The gene essential for tryptophan biosynthesis, trpC, was removed from the native regulatory unit, the Trp operon, and placed under the extraneous control of the lactose utilisation network. Bistability of the network provided the cells two discrete phenotypes: the induced and suppressed level of trpC. The two phenotypes permitted the cells to grow or not, respectively, under conditions of tryptophan depletion. We found that stochastic switching between the two states allowed the initially suppressed cells to form a new population with induced trpC in response to tryptophan starvation. However, the frequency of the transition from suppressed to induced state dropped off dramatically in the starved population, in comparison to that in the nourished population. This reduced switching rate was compensated by increasing the initial population size, which probably provided the cell population more chances to wait for the rarely appearing fit cells from the unfit cells. Taken together, adaptation of a starved bacterial population because of stochasticity in the gene rewired from the ancient regulon was experimentally confirmed, and the nutritional status and the population size played a great role in stochastic adaptation. PMID:21931628

Multilevel selection in a resource-based model.

PubMed

Ferreira, Fernando Fagundes; Campos, Paulo R A

2013-07-01

In the present work we investigate the emergence of cooperation in a multilevel selection model that assumes limiting resources. Following the work by R. J. Requejo and J. Camacho [Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 038701 (2012)], the interaction among individuals is initially ruled by a prisoner's dilemma (PD) game. The payoff matrix may change, influenced by the resource availability, and hence may also evolve to a non-PD game. Furthermore, one assumes that the population is divided into groups, whose local dynamics is driven by the payoff matrix, whereas an intergroup competition results from the nonuniformity of the growth rate of groups. We study the probability that a single cooperator can invade and establish in a population initially dominated by defectors. Cooperation is strongly favored when group sizes are small. We observe the existence of a critical group size beyond which cooperation becomes counterselected. Although the critical size depends on the parameters of the model, it is seen that a saturation value for the critical group size is achieved. The results conform to the thought that the evolutionary history of life repeatedly involved transitions from smaller selective units to larger selective units.

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2005-01-01

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Emergence of Persistent Infection due to Heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agrawal, Vidit; Moitra, Promit; Sinha, Sudeshna

2017-02-01

We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a closed region where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model, with an individual becoming infected on contact with another infected individual. We investigate the persistence of contagion qualitatively and quantitatively, under increasing heterogeneity in the partitioning of the population into different disease compartments, as well as increasing heterogeneity in the phases of the disease among individuals within a compartment. We observe that when the initial population is uniform, consisting of individuals at the same stage of disease progression, infection arising from a contagious seed does not persist. However when the initial population consists of randomly distributed refractory and susceptible individuals, a single source of infection can lead to sustained infection in the population, as heterogeneity facilitates the de-synchronization of the phases in the disease cycle of the individuals. We also show how the average size of the window of persistence of infection depends on the degree of heterogeneity in the initial composition of the population. In particular, we show that the infection eventually dies out when the entire initial population is susceptible, while even a few susceptibles among an heterogeneous refractory population gives rise to a large persistent infected set.

The Effects of Soil Type, Particle Size, Temperature, and Moisture on Reproduction of Belonolaimus longicaudatus.

PubMed

Robbins, R T; Barker, K R

1974-01-01

Effects of soil type, particle size, temperature, and moisture on the reproduction of Belonolaimus longicaudatus were investigated under greenhouse conditions. Nematode increases occurred only in soils with a minimum of 80% sand and a maximum of 10% clay. Optimum soil particle size for reproduction of the Tarboro, N.C. and Tifton, Ga. populations of the nematode was near that of 120-370 mum (65-mesh) silica sand. Reproduction was greatest at 25-30 C. Some reproduction by the Tifton, Ga. population occurred at 35 C, whereas the Tarboro, N.C. population declined, as compared to the initial inoculum. Both populations reproduced slightly at 20 C. Nematode reproduction was greater at a moisture level of 7% than at a high of 30% or a low of 2%. Reproduction occurred at the high moisture level only when the nutrient solution was aerated.

Monitoring the shorebirds of North America: Towards a unified approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, S.K.; Bart, J.; Andres, B.; Brown, S.; Donaldson, G.; Harrington, B.; Johnston, V.; Jones, S.L.; Morrison, R.I.G.

2003-01-01

The Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM) has recently developed a single blueprint for monitoring shorebirds in Canada and the United States in response to needs identified by recent shorebird conservation plans. The goals of PRISM are to: (1) estimate the size of breeding populations of 74 shorebird taxa in North America; (2) describe the distribution, abundance, and habitat relationships for these taxa; (3) monitor trends in shorebird population size; (4) monitor shorebird numbers at stopover locations, and; (5) assist local managers in meeting their shorebird conservation goals. The initial focus has been on developing methods to estimate trends in population size. A three-part approach for estimating trends includes: (1) breeding surveys in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions, (2) migration surveys, and (3) wintering surveys.

Disease invasion risk in a growing population.

PubMed

Yuan, Sanling; van den Driessche, P; Willeboordse, Frederick H; Shuai, Zhisheng; Ma, Junling

2016-09-01

The spread of an infectious disease may depend on the population size. For simplicity, classic epidemic models assume homogeneous mixing, usually standard incidence or mass action. For standard incidence, the contact rate between any pair of individuals is inversely proportional to the population size, and so the basic reproduction number (and thus the initial exponential growth rate of the disease) is independent of the population size. For mass action, this contact rate remains constant, predicting that the basic reproduction number increases linearly with the population size, meaning that disease invasion is easiest when the population is largest. In this paper, we show that neither of these may be true on a slowly evolving contact network: the basic reproduction number of a short epidemic can reach its maximum while the population is still growing. The basic reproduction number is proportional to the spectral radius of a contact matrix, which is shown numerically to be well approximated by the average excess degree of the contact network. We base our analysis on modeling the dynamics of the average excess degree of a random contact network with constant population input, proportional deaths, and preferential attachment for contacts brought in by incoming individuals (i.e., individuals with more contacts attract more incoming contacts). In addition, we show that our result also holds for uniform attachment of incoming contacts (i.e., every individual has the same chance of attracting incoming contacts), and much more general population dynamics. Our results show that a disease spreading in a growing population may evade control if disease control planning is based on the basic reproduction number at maximum population size.

Evolution of Cell Size Homeostasis and Growth Rate Diversity during Initial Surface Colonization of Shewanella oneidensis.

PubMed

Lee, Calvin K; Kim, Alexander J; Santos, Giancarlo S; Lai, Peter Y; Lee, Stella Y; Qiao, David F; Anda, Jaime De; Young, Thomas D; Chen, Yujie; Rowe, Annette R; Nealson, Kenneth H; Weiss, Paul S; Wong, Gerard C L

2016-09-06

Cell size control and homeostasis are fundamental features of bacterial metabolism. Recent work suggests that cells add a constant size between birth and division ("adder" model). However, it is not known how cell size homeostasis is influenced by the existence of heterogeneous microenvironments, such as those during biofilm formation. Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 can use diverse energy sources on a range of surfaces via extracellular electron transport (EET), which can impact growth, metabolism, and size diversity. Here, we track bacterial surface communities at single-cell resolution to show that not only do bacterial motility appendages influence the transition from two- to three-dimensional biofilm growth and control postdivisional cell fates, they strongly impact cell size homeostasis. For every generation, we find that the average growth rate for cells that stay on the surface and continue to divide (nondetaching population) and that for cells that detach before their next division (detaching population) are roughly constant. However, the growth rate distribution is narrow for the nondetaching population, but broad for the detaching population in each generation. Interestingly, the appendage deletion mutants (ΔpilA, ΔmshA-D, Δflg) have significantly broader growth rate distributions than that of the wild type for both detaching and nondetaching populations, which suggests that Shewanella appendages are important for sensing and integrating environmental inputs that contribute to size homeostasis. Moreover, our results suggest multiplexing of appendages for sensing and motility functions contributes to cell size dysregulation. These results can potentially provide a framework for generating metabolic diversity in S. oneidensis populations to optimize EET in heterogeneous environments.

Risk of population extinction from fixation of deleterious and reverse mutations.

PubMed

Lande, R

1998-01-01

A model is developed for alternate fixations of mildly deleterious and wild-type alleles arising by forward and reverse mutation in a finite population. For almost all parameter values, this gives an equilibrium load that agrees closely with the general expression derived from diffusion theory. Nearly neutral mutations with selection coefficient a few times larger than 1/(2N(e)) do the most damage by increasing the equilibrium load. The model of alternate fixations facilitates dynamical analysis of the expected load and the mean time to extinction in a population that has been suddenly reduced from a very large size to a small size. Reverse mutation can substantially improve population viability, increasing the mean time to extinction by an order of magnitude or more, but because many mutations are irreversible the effects may not be large. Populations with initially high mean fitness and small effective size, N(e) below a few hundred individuals, may be at serious risk of extinction from fixation of deleterious mutations within 10(3) to 10(4) generations.

Size-assortative mating and effect of maternal body size on the reproductive output of the nassariid Buccinanops globulosus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avaca, María Soledad; Narvarte, Maite; Martín, Pablo

2012-04-01

Size- assortative mating is usually present in populations where there is a positive relationship between female size and reproductive output. In this study, we tested for the presence of sexual size dimorphism, size-assortative mating and the effects of female size on reproductive output in a wild population of Buccinanops globulosus, an endemic nassariid of the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean with direct development. The results showed that: 1) females were larger than males, indicating sexual size dimorphism; 2) mate sizes were significantly correlated, indicating a component of size-assortative mating; 3) males of medium and large size classes were paired with larger females than small-sized males; 4) larger females were paired with large males; 5) maternal body size was positively related to some proxies of reproductive success (number of nurse eggs per egg capsule, egg capsular area and total length at hatching). Our results suggest that larger females may be favored as mates over smaller ones owing to their higher investment per offspring and consequently a larger initial juvenile size as juvenile.

Numerical simulation of advection fog formation on multi-disperse aerosols due to combustion-related pollutants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, R. J.; Liaw, G. S.

1980-01-01

The effects of multi-disperse distribution of the aerosol population are presented. Single component and multi-component aerosol species on the condensation/nucleation processes which affect the reduction in visibility are described. The aerosol population with a high particle concentration provided more favorable conditions for the formation of a denser fog than the aerosol population with a greater particle size distribution when the value of the mass concentration of the aerosols was kept constant. The results were used as numerical predictions of fog formation. Two dimensional observations in horizontal and vertical coordinates, together with time-dependent measurements were needed as initial values for the following physical parameters: (1)wind profiles; (2) temperature profiles; (3) humidity profiles; (4) mass concentration of aerosol particles; (5) particle size distribution of aerosols; and (6) chemical composition of aerosols. Formation and dissipation of advection fog, thus, can be forecasted numerically by introducing initial values obtained from the observations.

The Relationship between National-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Population Size: An Assessment of Regional and Temporal Variation, 1960–2005

PubMed Central

Jorgenson, Andrew K.; Clark, Brett

2013-01-01

This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region. PMID:23437323

Reintroduction of the highly endangered mollusk Patella ferruginea Gmelin, 1791 in an MPA: A novel approach to achieve high survival rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarrouk, Anis; Romdhane, Mohamed Salah; Espinosa, Free

2018-03-01

Patella ferruginea is the most endangered marine invertebrate of western Mediterranean rocky shores. After a study of one of its most important populations in the Zembra Archipelago National Park (Tunisia), a new protocol for the translocation of the species (size: 4-8 cm) was adopted. The first translocation was made in June 2014 in the same archipelago, where 94 specimens were moved from Zembretta to Zembra Island and marked (62 protected by cages, 20 with no cages and 60 as controls). The second translocation was performed in August 2014 (110 specimens) from Zembra to La Galite Island (185 km away). High mortality was registered during transport. The remaining individuals (39) were marked and placed in cages on the rocky shores of Galite Island, then monitored until November 2015. Growth and survival rates were measured in both translocated and control populations. The highest mortality rates were observed during the initial three days after translocation, especially for individuals with no cage protection. After a 697-day survey on Zembra Island, survival rates of 58%, 25% and 85% were observed for cage, no-cage and control populations, respectively. After a 457-day survey on La Galite Island, the survival rate was 18%. Limpets>6 cm in size had the highest survival rate among Zembra-translocated populations, whereas translocated limpets of 4-6 cm in size showed the highest survival rate in La Galite. The growth rates for both translocated populations were higher than the rate observed for controls. Our translocation experiment shows the importance of cage protection and initial limpet size for survival.

Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

PubMed

Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

2013-05-01

An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

Epidemiological modeling in a branching population. Particular case of a general SIS model with two age classes.

PubMed

Jacob, C; Viet, A F

2003-03-01

This paper covers the elaboration of a general class of multitype branching processes for modeling in a branching population, the evolution of a disease with horizontal and vertical transmissions. When the size of the population may tend to infinity, normalization must be carried out. As the initial size tends to infinity, the normalized model converges a.s. to a dynamical system the solution of which is the probability law of the state of health for an individual ancestors line. The focal point of this study concerns the transient and asymptotical behaviors of a SIS model with two age classes in a branching population. We will compare the asymptotical probability of extinction on the scale of a finite population and on the scale of an individual in an infinite population: when the rates of transmission are small compared to the rate of renewing the population of susceptibles, the two models lead to a.s. extinction, giving consistent results, which no longer applies to the opposite situation of important transmissions. In that case the size of the population plays a crucial role in the spreading of the disease.

Population ecology of breeding Pacific common eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Heather M.; Flint, Paul L.; Powell, Abby N.; Grand, J. Barry; Moral, Christine L.

2012-01-01

Populations of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska declined by 50–90% from 1957 to 1992 and then stabilized at reduced numbers from the early 1990s to the present. We investigated the underlying processes affecting their population dynamics by collection and analysis of demographic data from Pacific common eiders at 3 sites on the YKD (1991–2004) for 29 site-years. We examined variation in components of reproduction, tested hypotheses about the influence of specific ecological factors on life-history variables, and investigated their relative contributions to local population dynamics. Reproductive output was low and variable, both within and among individuals, whereas apparent survival of adult females was high and relatively invariant (0.89 ± 0.005). All reproductive parameters varied across study sites and years. Clutch initiation dates ranged from 4 May to 28 June, with peak (modal) initiation occurring on 26 May. Females at an island study site consistently initiated clutches 3–5 days earlier in each year than those on 2 mainland sites. Population variance in nest initiation date was negatively related to the peak, suggesting increased synchrony in years of delayed initiation. On average, total clutch size (laid) ranged from 4.8 to 6.6 eggs, and declined with date of nest initiation. After accounting for partial predation and non-viability of eggs, average clutch size at hatch ranged from 2.0 to 5.8 eggs. Within seasons, daily survival probability (DSP) of nests was lowest during egg-laying and late-initiation dates. Estimated nest survival varied considerably across sites and years (mean = 0.55, range: 0.06–0.92), but process variance in nest survival was relatively low (0.02, CI: 0.01–0.05), indicating that most variance was likely attributed to sampling error. We found evidence that observer effects may have reduced overall nest survival by 0.0–0.36 across site-years. Study sites with lower sample sizes and more frequent visitations appeared to experience greater observer effects. In general, Pacific common eiders exhibited high spatio-temporal variance in reproductive components. Larger clutch sizes and high nest survival at early initiation dates suggested directional selection favoring early nesting. However, stochastic environmental effects may have precluded response to this apparent selection pressure. Our results suggest that females breeding early in the season have the greatest reproductive value, as these birds lay the largest clutches and have the highest probability of successfully hatching. We developed stochastic, stage-based, matrix population models that incorporated observed spatio-temporal (process) variance and co-variation in vital rates, and projected the stable stage distribution () and population growth rate (λ). We used perturbation analyses to examine the relative influence of changes in vital rates on λ and variance decomposition to assess the proportion of variation in λ explained by process variation in each vital rate. In addition to matrix-based λ, we estimated λ using capture–recapture approaches, and log-linear regression. We found the stable age distribution for Pacific common eiders was weighted heavily towards experienced adult females (≥4 yr of age), and all calculations of λ indicated that the YKD population was stable to slightly increasing (λmatrix = 1.02, CI: 1.00–1.04); λreverse-capture–recapture = 1.05, CI: 0.99–1.11; λlog-linear = 1.04, CI: 0.98–1.10). Perturbation analyses suggested the population would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival (relative influence of adult survival was 1.5 times that of fecundity), whereas retrospective variation in λ was primarily explained by fecundity parameters (60%), particularly duckling survival (42%). Among components of fecundity, sensitivities were highest for duckling survival, suggesti

Spectral Study of Measles Epidemics: The Dependence of Spectral Gradient on the Population Size of the Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, Ayako; Olsen, Lars Folke; Ohtomo, Norio; Tanaka, Yukio; Sawamura, Sadashi

2003-02-01

We have carried out spectral analysis of measles notifications in several communities in Denmark, UK and USA. The results confirm that each power spectral density (PSD) shows exponential characteristics, which are universally observed in the PSD for time series generated from nonlinear dynamical system. The exponential gradient increases with the population size. For almost all communities, many spectral lines observed in each PSD can be fully assigned to linear combinations of several fundamental periods, suggesting that the measles data are substantially noise-free. The optimum least squares fitting curve calculated using these fundamental periods essentially reproduces an underlying variation of the measles data, and an extension of the curve can be used to predict measles epidemics. For the communities with large population sizes, some PSD patterns obtained from segment time series analysis show a close resemblance to the PSD patterns at the initial stages of a period-doubling bifurcation process for the so-called susceptible/exposed/infectious/recovered (SEIR) model with seasonal forcing. The meaning of the relationship between the exponential gradient and the population size is discussed.

Population momentum: A wider definition.

PubMed

Potter, R G; Wolowyna, O; Kulkarni, P M

1977-11-01

Summary Keyfitz has derived an elegant formula for estimating the ultimate size of an initially stable, growing population that abruptly reduces its fertility to replacement level. Reduction of fertility is achieved by the rather unrealistic device of dividing the original age schedule nffertility rates by the net reproduction rate. Only the inertia of the age distribution is thus accounted for, but not that of the fertility schedule. The key idea of an abrupt imposition of a fixed regimen capable in the long run of generating zero population growth may be retained, but the regimen made more realistic. By elaborating the population setting, such disparate ZPG regimens as reduction of marital fertility by contraception, delayed and/or less universal marriage, raised mortality risks, or permanent net out-migration may be formulated. Convergence of the populaton to stationarity becomes a two-phase process: a primary adjustment period of changing fertility rates followed by a period of age adjustment. The present paper treats what happens when a fixed ZPG sterilization regimen, defined by a minimum age of sterilization γ and constant continuous risk φ of sterilization among unsterilized wives aged γ to β, is imposed abruptly (or else progressively over an interval T) upon an initially stable, growing population. Additional sources of residual growth are: (1) the nine-month lag in sterilization effect owing to pregnancy: (2) the more youthful pattern of child-bearing under sterilization: (3) the extra adjustment period (of length β-γ-0.75) of changing fertility rates; and (4) any delays in exposing elements of the population to the sterilization regimen. Two questions are pursued. First, how important are the additional sources of residual growth? Secondly, how do their relative sizes vary as a function of the characteristics of the initial population?

Balancing selection and genetic drift create unusual patterns of MHCIIβ variation in Galápagos mockingbirds.

PubMed

Vlček, Jakub; Hoeck, Paquita E A; Keller, Lukas F; Wayhart, Jessica P; Dolinová, Iva; Štefka, Jan

2016-10-01

The extracellular subunit of the major histocompatibility complex MHCIIβ plays an important role in the recognition of pathogens and the initiation of the adaptive immune response of vertebrates. It is widely accepted that pathogen-mediated selection in combination with neutral micro-evolutionary forces (e.g. genetic drift) shape the diversity of MHCIIβ, but it has proved difficult to determine the relative effects of these forces. We evaluated the effect of genetic drift and balancing selection on MHCIIβ diversity in 12 small populations of Galápagos mockingbirds belonging to four different species, and one larger population of the Northern mockingbird from the continental USA. After genotyping MHCIIβ loci by high-throughput sequencing, we applied a correlational approach to explore the relationships between MHCIIβ diversity and population size by proxy of island size. As expected when drift predominates, we found a positive effect of population size on the number of MHCIIβ alleles present in a population. However, the number of MHCIIβ alleles per individual and number of supertypes were not correlated with population size. This discrepancy points to an interesting feature of MHCIIβ diversity dynamics: some levels of diversity might be shaped by genetic drift while others are independent and possibly maintained by balancing selection. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multilevel selection in a resource-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Fernando Fagundes; Campos, Paulo R. A.

2013-07-01

In the present work we investigate the emergence of cooperation in a multilevel selection model that assumes limiting resources. Following the work by R. J. Requejo and J. Camacho [Phys. Rev. Lett.0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.108.038701 108, 038701 (2012)], the interaction among individuals is initially ruled by a prisoner's dilemma (PD) game. The payoff matrix may change, influenced by the resource availability, and hence may also evolve to a non-PD game. Furthermore, one assumes that the population is divided into groups, whose local dynamics is driven by the payoff matrix, whereas an intergroup competition results from the nonuniformity of the growth rate of groups. We study the probability that a single cooperator can invade and establish in a population initially dominated by defectors. Cooperation is strongly favored when group sizes are small. We observe the existence of a critical group size beyond which cooperation becomes counterselected. Although the critical size depends on the parameters of the model, it is seen that a saturation value for the critical group size is achieved. The results conform to the thought that the evolutionary history of life repeatedly involved transitions from smaller selective units to larger selective units.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish.

PubMed

Sakaris, Peter C; Irwin, Elise R

2010-03-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotic fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes.

Mutant number distribution in an exponentially growing population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Peter; Antal, Tibor

2015-01-01

We present an explicit solution to a classic model of cell-population growth introduced by Luria and Delbrück (1943 Genetics 28 491-511) 70 years ago to study the emergence of mutations in bacterial populations. In this model a wild-type population is assumed to grow exponentially in a deterministic fashion. Proportional to the wild-type population size, mutants arrive randomly and initiate new sub-populations of mutants that grow stochastically according to a supercritical birth and death process. We give an exact expression for the generating function of the total number of mutants at a given wild-type population size. We present a simple expression for the probability of finding no mutants, and a recursion formula for the probability of finding a given number of mutants. In the ‘large population-small mutation’ limit we recover recent results of Kessler and Levine (2014 J. Stat. Phys. doi:10.1007/s10955-014-1143-3) for a fully stochastic version of the process.

The time-evolution of DCIS size distributions with applications to breast cancer growth and progression.

PubMed

Dowty, James G; Byrnes, Graham B; Gertig, Dorota M

2014-12-01

Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) lesions are non-invasive tumours of the breast that are thought to precede most invasive breast cancers (IBCs). As individual DCIS lesions are initiated, grow and invade (i.e. become IBC), the size distribution of the DCIS lesions present in a given human population will evolve. We derive a differential equation governing this evolution and show, for given assumptions about growth and invasion, that there is a unique distribution which does not vary with time. Further, we show that any initial distribution converges to this stationary distribution exponentially quickly. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the stationary distribution governs the size of DCIS lesions in human populations which are relatively stable with respect to the determinants of breast cancer. Based on this assumption and the size data of 110 DCIS lesions detected in a mammographic screening programme between 1993 and 2000, we produce maximum likelihood estimates for certain growth and invasion parameters. Assuming that DCIS size is proportional to a positive power p of the time since tumour initiation, we estimate p to be 0.50 with a 95% confidence interval of (0.35, 0.71). Therefore, we estimate that DCIS lesions follow a square-root growth law and hence that they grow rapidly when small and relatively slowly when large. Our approach and results should be useful for other mathematical studies of cancer, especially those investigating biological mechanisms of invasion. © The Authors 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

Application of real-time PCR to study effects of ammonium on population size of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria in soil.

PubMed

Okano, Yutaka; Hristova, Krassimira R; Leutenegger, Christian M; Jackson, Louise E; Denison, R Ford; Gebreyesus, Binyam; Lebauer, David; Scow, Kate M

2004-02-01

Ammonium oxidation by autotrophic ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) is a key process in agricultural and natural ecosystems and has a large global impact. In the past, the ecology and physiology of AOB were not well understood because these organisms are notoriously difficult to culture. Recent applications of molecular techniques have advanced our knowledge of AOB, but the necessity of using PCR-based techniques has made quantitative measurements difficult. A quantitative real-time PCR assay targeting part of the ammonia-monooxygenase gene (amoA) was developed to estimate AOB population size in soil. This assay has a detection limit of 1.3 x 10(5) cells/g of dry soil. The effect of the ammonium concentration on AOB population density was measured in soil microcosms by applying 0, 1.5, or 7.5 mM ammonium sulfate. AOB population size and ammonium and nitrate concentrations were monitored for 28 days after (NH4)2SO4 application. AOB populations in amended treatments increased from an initial density of approximately 4 x 10(6) cells/g of dry soil to peak values (day 7) of 35 x 10(6) and 66 x 10(6) cells/g of dry soil in the 1.5 and 7.5 mM treatments, respectively. The population size of total bacteria (quantified by real-time PCR with a universal bacterial probe) remained between 0.7 x 10(9) and 2.2 x 10(9) cells/g of soil, regardless of the ammonia concentration. A fertilization experiment was conducted in a tomato field plot to test whether the changes in AOB density observed in microcosms could also be detected in the field. AOB population size increased from 8.9 x 10(6) to 38.0 x 10(6) cells/g of soil by day 39. Generation times were 28 and 52 h in the 1.5 and 7.5 mM treatments, respectively, in the microcosm experiment and 373 h in the ammonium treatment in the field study. Estimated oxidation rates per cell ranged initially from 0.5 to 25.0 fmol of NH4+ h(-1) cell(-1) and decreased with time in both microcosms and the field. Growth yields were 5.6 x 10(6), 17.5 x 10(6), and 1.7 x 10(6) cells/mol of NH4+ in the 1.5 and 7.5 mM microcosm treatments and the field study, respectively. In a second field experiment, AOB population size was significantly greater in annually fertilized versus unfertilized soil, even though the last ammonium application occurred 8 months prior to measurement, suggesting a long-term effect of ammonium fertilization on AOB population size.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo.

PubMed

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82% of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28%) and subadult males (29%). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Selection of G1 Phase Yeast Cells for Synchronous Meiosis and Sporulation.

PubMed

Stuart, David T

2017-01-01

Centrifugal elutriation is a procedure that allows the fractionation of cell populations based upon their size and shape. This allows cells in distinct cell cycle stages can be captured from an asynchronous population. The technique is particularly helpful when performing an experiment to monitor the progression of cells through the cell cycle or meiosis. Yeast sporulation like gametogenesis in other eukaryotes initiates from the G1 phase of the cell cycle. Conveniently, S. cerevisiae arrest in G1 phase when starved for nutrients and so withdrawal of nitrogen and glucose allows cells to abandon vegetative growth in G1 phase before initiating the sporulation program. This simple starvation protocol yields a partial synchronization that has been used extensively in studies of progression through meiosis and sporulation. By using centrifugal elutriation it is possible to isolate a homogeneous population of G1 phase cells and induce them to sporulate synchronously, which is beneficial for investigating progression through meiosis and sporulation. An additionally benefit of this protocol is that cell populations can be isolated based upon size and both large and small cell populations can be tested for progression through meiosis and sporulation. Here we present a protocol for purification of G1 phase diploid cells for examining synchronous progression through meiosis and sporulation.

An Emerging Allee Effect Is Critical for Tumor Initiation and Persistence

PubMed Central

Böttger, Katrin; Hatzikirou, Haralambos; Voss-Böhme, Anja; Cavalcanti-Adam, Elisabetta Ada; Herrero, Miguel A.; Deutsch, Andreas

2015-01-01

Tumor cells develop different strategies to cope with changing microenvironmental conditions. A prominent example is the adaptive phenotypic switching between cell migration and proliferation. While it has been shown that the migration-proliferation plasticity influences tumor spread, it remains unclear how this particular phenotypic plasticity affects overall tumor growth, in particular initiation and persistence. To address this problem, we formulate and study a mathematical model of spatio-temporal tumor dynamics which incorporates the microenvironmental influence through a local cell density dependence. Our analysis reveals that two dynamic regimes can be distinguished. If cell motility is allowed to increase with local cell density, any tumor cell population will persist in time, irrespective of its initial size. On the contrary, if cell motility is assumed to decrease with respect to local cell density, any tumor population below a certain size threshold will eventually extinguish, a fact usually termed as Allee effect in ecology. These results suggest that strategies aimed at modulating migration are worth to be explored as alternatives to those mainly focused at keeping tumor proliferation under control. PMID:26335202

Scalable Entity-Based Modeling of Population-Based Systems, Final LDRD Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cleary, A J; Smith, S G; Vassilevska, T K

2005-01-27

The goal of this project has been to develop tools, capabilities and expertise in the modeling of complex population-based systems via scalable entity-based modeling (EBM). Our initial focal application domain has been the dynamics of large populations exposed to disease-causing agents, a topic of interest to the Department of Homeland Security in the context of bioterrorism. In the academic community, discrete simulation technology based on individual entities has shown initial success, but the technology has not been scaled to the problem sizes or computational resources of LLNL. Our developmental emphasis has been on the extension of this technology to parallelmore » computers and maturation of the technology from an academic to a lab setting.« less

Microfiltration of raw whole milk to select fractions with different fat globule size distributions: process optimization and analysis.

PubMed

Michalski, M C; Leconte, N; Briard-Bion, V; Fauquant, J; Maubois, J L; Goudédranche, H

2006-10-01

We present an extensive description and analysis of a microfiltration process patented in our laboratory to separate different fractions of the initial milk fat globule population according to the size of the native milk fat globules (MFG). We used nominal membrane pore sizes of 2 to 12 microm and a specially designed pilot rig. Using this process with whole milk [whose MFG have a volume mean diameter (d43) = 4.2 +/- 0.2 microm] and appropriate membrane pore size and hydrodynamic conditions, we collected 2 extremes of the initial milk fat globule distribution consisting of 1) a retentate containing large MFG of d43 = 5 to 7.5 microm (with up to 250 g/kg of fat, up to 35% of initial milk fat, and up to 10% of initial milk volume), and 2) a permeate containing small MFG of d43 = 0.9 to 3.3 microm (with up to 16 g/kg of fat, up to 30% of initial milk fat, and up to 83% of initial milk volume and devoid of somatic cells). We checked that the process did not mechanically damage the MFG by measuring their zeta-potential. This new microfiltration process, avoiding milk aging, appears to be more efficient than gravity separation in selecting native MFG of different sizes. As we summarize from previous and new results showing that the physico-chemical and technological properties of native milk fat globules vary according to their size, the use of different fat globule fractions appears to be advantageous regarding the quality of cheeses and can lead to new dairy products with adapted properties (sensory, functional, and perhaps nutritional).

76 FR 37327 - Magnuson-Stevens Act Provisions; General Provisions for Domestic Fisheries; Application for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-27

... survey designed to estimate the population size of Pacific sardine. NMFS requests public comment on the... 4,200 mt initially set aside. The applicants proposed using 2,700 mt to replicate the summer survey...

Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: An example in asynchronously breeding birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, K.A.; Frederick, P.C.; Nichols, J.D.

2011-01-01

Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

2010-01-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Estimating avian population size using Bowden's estimator

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diefenbach, D.R.

2009-01-01

Avian researchers often uniquely mark birds, and multiple estimators could be used to estimate population size using individually identified birds. However, most estimators of population size require that all sightings of marked birds be uniquely identified, and many assume homogeneous detection probabilities. Bowden's estimator can incorporate sightings of marked birds that are not uniquely identified and relax assumptions required of other estimators. I used computer simulation to evaluate the performance of Bowden's estimator for situations likely to be encountered in bird studies. When the assumptions of the estimator were met, abundance and variance estimates and confidence-interval coverage were accurate. However, precision was poor for small population sizes (N < 50) unless a large percentage of the population was marked (>75%) and multiple (≥8) sighting surveys were conducted. If additional birds are marked after sighting surveys begin, it is important to initially mark a large proportion of the population (pm ≥ 0.5 if N ≤ 100 or pm > 0.1 if N ≥ 250) and minimize sightings in which birds are not uniquely identified; otherwise, most population estimates will be overestimated by >10%. Bowden's estimator can be useful for avian studies because birds can be resighted multiple times during a single survey, not all sightings of marked birds have to uniquely identify individuals, detection probabilities among birds can vary, and the complete study area does not have to be surveyed. I provide computer code for use with pilot data to design mark-resight surveys to meet desired precision for abundance estimates.

Long-term growth of Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medica, P.A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

2012-01-01

Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1-4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23-25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39-47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes.

PubMed

Cullingham, Catherine I; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2013-12-01

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Can Foraging Ecology Drive the Evolution of Body Size in a Diving Endotherm?

PubMed Central

Cook, Timothée R.; Lescroël, Amélie; Cherel, Yves; Kato, Akiko; Bost, Charles-André

2013-01-01

Within a single animal species, different morphs can allow for differential exploitation of foraging niches between populations, while sexual size dimorphism can provide each sex with access to different resources. Despite being potentially important agents of evolution, resource polymorphisms, and the way they operate in wild populations, remain poorly understood. In this study, we examine how trophic factors can select for different body sizes between populations and sexes in a diving endotherm. Dive depth and duration are positively related to body size in diving birds and mammals, a relationship explained by a lower mass-specific metabolic rate and greater oxygen stores in larger individuals. Based on this allometry, we predict that selection for exploiting resources situated at different depths can drive the evolution of body size in species of diving endotherms at the population and sexual level. To test this prediction, we studied the foraging ecology of Blue-eyed Shags, a group of cormorants with male-biased sexual size dimorphism from across the Southern Ocean. We found that mean body mass and relative difference in body mass between sexes varied by up to 77% and 107% between neighbouring colonies, respectively. Birds from colonies with larger individuals dived deeper than birds from colonies with smaller individuals, when accounting for sex. In parallel, males dived further offshore and deeper than females and the sexual difference in dive depth reflected the level of sexual size dimorphism at each colony. We argue that body size in this group of birds is under intense selection for diving to depths of profitable benthic prey patches and that, locally, sexual niche divergence selection can exaggerate the sexual size dimorphism of Blue-eyed Shags initially set up by sexual selection. Our findings suggest that trophic resources can select for important geographic micro-variability in body size between populations and sexes. PMID:23409169

Can foraging ecology drive the evolution of body size in a diving endotherm?

PubMed

Cook, Timothée R; Lescroël, Amélie; Cherel, Yves; Kato, Akiko; Bost, Charles-André

2013-01-01

Within a single animal species, different morphs can allow for differential exploitation of foraging niches between populations, while sexual size dimorphism can provide each sex with access to different resources. Despite being potentially important agents of evolution, resource polymorphisms, and the way they operate in wild populations, remain poorly understood. In this study, we examine how trophic factors can select for different body sizes between populations and sexes in a diving endotherm. Dive depth and duration are positively related to body size in diving birds and mammals, a relationship explained by a lower mass-specific metabolic rate and greater oxygen stores in larger individuals. Based on this allometry, we predict that selection for exploiting resources situated at different depths can drive the evolution of body size in species of diving endotherms at the population and sexual level. To test this prediction, we studied the foraging ecology of Blue-eyed Shags, a group of cormorants with male-biased sexual size dimorphism from across the Southern Ocean. We found that mean body mass and relative difference in body mass between sexes varied by up to 77% and 107% between neighbouring colonies, respectively. Birds from colonies with larger individuals dived deeper than birds from colonies with smaller individuals, when accounting for sex. In parallel, males dived further offshore and deeper than females and the sexual difference in dive depth reflected the level of sexual size dimorphism at each colony. We argue that body size in this group of birds is under intense selection for diving to depths of profitable benthic prey patches and that, locally, sexual niche divergence selection can exaggerate the sexual size dimorphism of Blue-eyed Shags initially set up by sexual selection. Our findings suggest that trophic resources can select for important geographic micro-variability in body size between populations and sexes.

A HYPOTHESIS FOR THE COLOR BIMODALITY OF JUPITER TROJANS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wong, Ian; Brown, Michael E., E-mail: iwong@caltech.edu

One of the most enigmatic and hitherto unexplained properties of Jupiter Trojans is their bimodal color distribution. This bimodality is indicative of two sub-populations within the Trojans, which have distinct size distributions. In this paper, we present a simple, plausible hypothesis for the origin and evolution of the two Trojan color sub-populations. In the framework of dynamical instability models of early solar system evolution, which suggest a common primordial progenitor population for both Trojans and Kuiper Belt objects, we use observational constraints to assert that the color bimodalities evident in both minor body populations developed within the primordial population priormore » to the onset of instability. We show that, beginning with an initial composition of rock and ices, location-dependent volatile loss through sublimation in this primordial population could have led to sharp changes in the surface composition with heliocentric distance. We propose that the depletion or retention of H{sub 2}S ice on the surface of these objects was the key factor in creating an initial color bimodality. Objects that retained H{sub 2}S on their surfaces developed characteristically redder colors upon irradiation than those that did not. After the bodies from the primordial population were scattered and emplaced into their current positions, they preserved this primordial color bimodality to the present day. We explore predictions of the volatile loss model—in particular, the effect of collisions within the Trojan population on the size distributions of the two sub-populations—and propose further experimental and observational tests of our hypothesis.« less

Allometric shape change and heterochrony in the freeliving coral Trachyphyllia bilobata (Duncan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Ann Budd; Johnson, Kenneth G.; Schultz, Lori L.

1988-05-01

Regression analysis has been used to study the relationship between age, size, shape, and surface area in two ancestral-descendant populations of the Neogene Caribbean coral Trachyphyllia bilobata. Analyses of the relationship between size and age show that the relationship is isometric and that little difference occurs between populations in mean corallite length or height and in their rates of growth. Onset of columella growth is significantly earlier, however, in the descendant population. Studies of the relationship between size and shape show that growth is allometric, with shape change occurring in both corallum elongation and pinching of the corallite wall during ontogeny. In the descendant population, pinching and elongation initiate earlier in the ontogeny of the coral. These results suggest that the evolutionary development of the meandroid form in freeliving corals has been accomplished by heterochrony, involving a complex set of disassociated peramorphic changes in ontogeny accompanied by paedomorphic changes in astogeny. Further analyses show that the observed heterochronic changes serve to decrease corallum surface area which may in turn enhance sediment removal and nutrition in unstable habitats.

The double stigma of obesity and serious mental illnesses: promoting health and recovery.

PubMed

Mizock, Lauren

2012-12-01

This article contrasts the traditional medical approach and size acceptance perspectives on obesity among people with serious mental illnesses. Higher incidences of obesity among populations with serious mental illnesses have been identified. In response, a recent initiative in mental health has urged providers to address the obesity rates among populations with mental illnesses by monitoring weight, prescribing weight loss medication, and recommending bariatric surgery. However, literature is emerging with regards to the double stigma experienced by individuals with obesity and a mental illness. Therefore, the traditional focus on weight loss can benefit from a size acceptance approach to focus on health promotion and avoid stigmatizing size. Citations of theoretical and behavioral health literature on the experiences of individuals with mental illnesses and obesity are presented. Recommendations for interventions, training, and future research related to obesity and mental illnesses are provided. Implications are suggested for a size acceptance approach to interventions for individuals in recovery from mental illnesses to promote health at every size within mental health and medical settings.

Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

PubMed

Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

1998-11-01

We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

Population Density Modulates Drug Inhibition and Gives Rise to Potential Bistability of Treatment Outcomes for Bacterial Infections.

PubMed

Karslake, Jason; Maltas, Jeff; Brumm, Peter; Wood, Kevin B

2016-10-01

The inoculum effect (IE) is an increase in the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of an antibiotic as a function of the initial size of a microbial population. The IE has been observed in a wide range of bacteria, implying that antibiotic efficacy may depend on population density. Such density dependence could have dramatic effects on bacterial population dynamics and potential treatment strategies, but explicit measures of per capita growth as a function of density are generally not available. Instead, the IE measures MIC as a function of initial population size, and population density changes by many orders of magnitude on the timescale of the experiment. Therefore, the functional relationship between population density and antibiotic inhibition is generally not known, leaving many questions about the impact of the IE on different treatment strategies unanswered. To address these questions, here we directly measured real-time per capita growth of Enterococcus faecalis populations exposed to antibiotic at fixed population densities using multiplexed computer-automated culture devices. We show that density-dependent growth inhibition is pervasive for commonly used antibiotics, with some drugs showing increased inhibition and others decreased inhibition at high densities. For several drugs, the density dependence is mediated by changes in extracellular pH, a community-level phenomenon not previously linked with the IE. Using a simple mathematical model, we demonstrate how this density dependence can modulate population dynamics in constant drug environments. Then, we illustrate how time-dependent dosing strategies can mitigate the negative effects of density-dependence. Finally, we show that these density effects lead to bistable treatment outcomes for a wide range of antibiotic concentrations in a pharmacological model of antibiotic treatment. As a result, infections exceeding a critical density often survive otherwise effective treatments.

Population Density Modulates Drug Inhibition and Gives Rise to Potential Bistability of Treatment Outcomes for Bacterial Infections

PubMed Central

Maltas, Jeff; Brumm, Peter; Wood, Kevin B.

2016-01-01

The inoculum effect (IE) is an increase in the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of an antibiotic as a function of the initial size of a microbial population. The IE has been observed in a wide range of bacteria, implying that antibiotic efficacy may depend on population density. Such density dependence could have dramatic effects on bacterial population dynamics and potential treatment strategies, but explicit measures of per capita growth as a function of density are generally not available. Instead, the IE measures MIC as a function of initial population size, and population density changes by many orders of magnitude on the timescale of the experiment. Therefore, the functional relationship between population density and antibiotic inhibition is generally not known, leaving many questions about the impact of the IE on different treatment strategies unanswered. To address these questions, here we directly measured real-time per capita growth of Enterococcus faecalis populations exposed to antibiotic at fixed population densities using multiplexed computer-automated culture devices. We show that density-dependent growth inhibition is pervasive for commonly used antibiotics, with some drugs showing increased inhibition and others decreased inhibition at high densities. For several drugs, the density dependence is mediated by changes in extracellular pH, a community-level phenomenon not previously linked with the IE. Using a simple mathematical model, we demonstrate how this density dependence can modulate population dynamics in constant drug environments. Then, we illustrate how time-dependent dosing strategies can mitigate the negative effects of density-dependence. Finally, we show that these density effects lead to bistable treatment outcomes for a wide range of antibiotic concentrations in a pharmacological model of antibiotic treatment. As a result, infections exceeding a critical density often survive otherwise effective treatments. PMID:27764095

Effect of pectin methylesterase on carrot (Daucus carota) juice cloud stability.

PubMed

Schultz, Alison K; Anthon, Gordon E; Dungan, Stephanie R; Barrett, Diane M

2014-02-05

To determine the effect of residual enzyme activity on carrot juice cloud, 0 to 1 U/g pectin methylesterase (PME) was added to pasteurized carrot juice. Cloud stability and particle diameters were measured to quantify juice cloud stability and clarification for 56 days of storage. All levels of PME addition resulted in clarification; higher amounts had a modest effect in causing more rapid clarification, due to a faster increase in particle size. The cloud initially exhibited a trimodal distribution of particle sizes. For enzyme-containing samples, particles in the smallest-sized mode initially aggregated to merge with the second peak over 5-10 days. This larger population then continued to aggregate more slowly over longer times. This observation of a more rapid destabilization process initially, followed by slower subsequent changes in the cloud, was also manifested in measurements of sedimentation extent and in turbidity tests. Optical microscopy showed that aggregation created elongated, fractal particle structures over time.

A three-stage colonization model for the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M; Mulligan, Connie J

2008-02-13

We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth approximately 40,000 and approximately 15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting approximately 15,000 years ago. These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas approximately 15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of approximately 1,000-5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods.

Estimating the Size and Components of the U.S. Child Care Workforce and Caregiving Population. Key Findings from the Child Care Workforce Estimate. Preliminary Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burton, Alice; Whitebook, Marcy; Young, Marci; Bellm, Dan; Wayne, Claudia; Brandon, Richard N.; Maher, Erin

In response to rising demand for information on the child care workforce, the Center for the Child Care Workforce (CCW) and the Human Services Policy Center (HSPC) have initiated a 2-year project to develop a framework and methodology for quantifying the size and characteristics of the U.S. child care workforce, focusing on the workforce serving…

Sintering of polydisperse viscous droplets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Vasseur, Jérémie; Llewellin, Edward W.; Dingwell, Donald B.

2017-03-01

Sintering—or coalescence—of compacts of viscous droplets is driven by the interfacial tension between the droplets and the interstitial gas phase. The process, which occurs in a range of industrial and natural settings, such as the manufacture of ceramics and the welding of volcanic ash, causes the compact to densify, to become stronger, and to become less permeable. We investigate the role of droplet polydispersivity in sintering dynamics by conducting experiments in which populations of glass spheres with different size distributions are heated to temperatures above the glass transition interval. We quantify the progress of sintering by tracking changes in porosity with time. The sintering dynamics is modeled by treating the system as a random distribution of interstitial gas bubbles shrinking under the action of interfacial tension only. We identify the scaling between the polydispersivity of the initial droplets and the dynamics of bulk densification. The framework that we develop allows the sintering dynamics of arbitrary polydisperse populations of droplets to be predicted if the initial droplet (or particle) size distribution is known.

Experimental Estimation of Mutation Rates in a Wheat Population With a Gene Genealogy Approach

PubMed Central

Raquin, Anne-Laure; Depaulis, Frantz; Lambert, Amaury; Galic, Nathalie; Brabant, Philippe; Goldringer, Isabelle

2008-01-01

Microsatellite markers are extensively used to evaluate genetic diversity in natural or experimental evolving populations. Their high degree of polymorphism reflects their high mutation rates. Estimates of the mutation rates are therefore necessary when characterizing diversity in populations. As a complement to the classical experimental designs, we propose to use experimental populations, where the initial state is entirely known and some intermediate states have been thoroughly surveyed, thus providing a short timescale estimation together with a large number of cumulated meioses. In this article, we derived four original gene genealogy-based methods to assess mutation rates with limited bias due to relevant model assumptions incorporating the initial state, the number of new alleles, and the genetic effective population size. We studied the evolution of genetic diversity at 21 microsatellite markers, after 15 generations in an experimental wheat population. Compared to the parents, 23 new alleles were found in generation 15 at 9 of the 21 loci studied. We provide evidence that they arose by mutation. Corresponding estimates of the mutation rates ranged from 0 to 4.97 × 10−3 per generation (i.e., year). Sequences of several alleles revealed that length polymorphism was only due to variation in the core of the microsatellite. Among different microsatellite characteristics, both the motif repeat number and an independent estimation of the Nei diversity were correlated with the novel diversity. Despite a reduced genetic effective size, global diversity at microsatellite markers increased in this population, suggesting that microsatellite diversity should be used with caution as an indicator in biodiversity conservation issues. PMID:18689900

Experimental estimation of mutation rates in a wheat population with a gene genealogy approach.

PubMed

Raquin, Anne-Laure; Depaulis, Frantz; Lambert, Amaury; Galic, Nathalie; Brabant, Philippe; Goldringer, Isabelle

2008-08-01

Microsatellite markers are extensively used to evaluate genetic diversity in natural or experimental evolving populations. Their high degree of polymorphism reflects their high mutation rates. Estimates of the mutation rates are therefore necessary when characterizing diversity in populations. As a complement to the classical experimental designs, we propose to use experimental populations, where the initial state is entirely known and some intermediate states have been thoroughly surveyed, thus providing a short timescale estimation together with a large number of cumulated meioses. In this article, we derived four original gene genealogy-based methods to assess mutation rates with limited bias due to relevant model assumptions incorporating the initial state, the number of new alleles, and the genetic effective population size. We studied the evolution of genetic diversity at 21 microsatellite markers, after 15 generations in an experimental wheat population. Compared to the parents, 23 new alleles were found in generation 15 at 9 of the 21 loci studied. We provide evidence that they arose by mutation. Corresponding estimates of the mutation rates ranged from 0 to 4.97 x 10(-3) per generation (i.e., year). Sequences of several alleles revealed that length polymorphism was only due to variation in the core of the microsatellite. Among different microsatellite characteristics, both the motif repeat number and an independent estimation of the Nei diversity were correlated with the novel diversity. Despite a reduced genetic effective size, global diversity at microsatellite markers increased in this population, suggesting that microsatellite diversity should be used with caution as an indicator in biodiversity conservation issues.

When bigger is not better: intraspecific competition for pollination increases with population size in invasive milkweeds.

PubMed

Ward, Megan; Johnson, Steven D; Zalucki, Myron P

2013-04-01

One of the essential requirements for an introduced plant species to become invasive is an ability to reproduce outside the native range, particularly when initial populations are small. If a reproductive Allee effect is operating, plants in small populations will have reduced reproductive success relative to plants in larger populations. Alternatively, if plants in small populations experience less competition for pollination than those in large populations, they may actually have higher levels of reproductive success than plants in large populations. To resolve this uncertainty, we investigated how the per capita fecundity of plants was affected by population size in three invasive milkweed species. Field surveys of seed production in natural populations of different sizes but similar densities were conducted for three pollinator-dependent invasive species, namely Asclepias curassavica, Gomphocarpus fruticosus and G. physocarpus. Additionally, supplemental hand-pollinations were performed in small and large populations in order to determine whether reproductive output was limited by pollinator activity in these populations. Reproductive Allee effects were not detected in any of the study species. Instead, plants in small populations exhibited remarkably high levels of reproductive output compared to those in large populations. Increased fruit production following supplemental hand-pollinations suggested that the lower reproductive output of naturally pollinated plants in large populations is a consequence of pollen limitation rather than limitation due to abiotic resources. This is consistent with increased intraspecific competition for pollination amongst plants in large populations. It is likely that the invasion of these milkweed species in Australia has been enhanced because plants in small founding populations experience less intraspecific competition for pollinators than those in large populations, and thus have the ability to produce copious amounts of seeds.

Cross-generational environmental effects and the evolution of offspring size in the Trinidadian guppy Poecilia reticulata.

PubMed

Bashey, Farrah

2006-02-01

The existence of adaptive phenotypic plasticity demands that we study the evolution of reaction norms, rather than just the evolution of fixed traits. This approach requires the examination of functional relationships among traits not only in a single environment but across environments and between traits and plasticity itself. In this study, I examined the interplay of plasticity and local adaptation of offspring size in the Trinidadian guppy, Poecilia reticulata. Guppies respond to food restriction by growing and reproducing less but also by producing larger offspring. This plastic difference in offspring size is of the same order of magnitude as evolved genetic differences among populations. Larger offspring sizes are thought to have evolved as an adaptation to the competitive environment faced by newborn guppies in some environments. If plastic responses to maternal food limitation can achieve the same fitness benefit, then why has guppy offspring size evolved at all? To explore this question, I examined the plastic response to food level of females from two natural populations that experience different selective environments. My goals were to examine whether the plastic responses to food level varied between populations, test the consequences of maternal manipulation of offspring size for offspring fitness, and assess whether costs of plasticity exist that could account for the evolution of mean offspring size across populations. In each population, full-sib sisters were exposed to either a low- or high-food treatment. Females from both populations produced larger, leaner offspring in response to food limitation. However, the population that was thought to have a history of selection for larger offspring was less plastic in its investment per offspring in response to maternal mass, maternal food level, and fecundity than the population under selection for small offspring size. To test the consequences of maternal manipulation of offspring size for offspring fitness, I raised the offspring of low- and high-food mothers in either low- or high-food environments. No maternal effects were detected at high food levels, supporting the prediction that mothers should increase fecundity rather than offspring size in noncompetitive environments. For offspring raised under low food levels, maternal effects on juvenile size and male size at maturity varied significantly between populations, reflecting their initial differences in maternal manipulation of offspring size; nevertheless, in both populations, increased investment per offspring increased offspring fitness. Several correlates of plasticity in investment per offspring that could affect the evolution of offspring size in guppies were identified. Under low-food conditions, mothers from more plastic families invested more in future reproduction and less in their own soma. Similarly, offspring from more plastic families were smaller as juveniles and female offspring reproduced earlier. These correlations suggest that a fixed, high level of investment per offspring might be favored over a plastic response in a chronically low-resource environment or in an environment that selects for lower reproductive effort.

Stock enhancement or sea ranching? Insights from monitoring the genetic diversity, relatedness and effective population size in a seeded great scallop population (Pecten maximus).

PubMed

Morvezen, R; Boudry, P; Laroche, J; Charrier, G

2016-09-01

The mass release of hatchery-propagated stocks raises numerous questions concerning its efficiency in terms of local recruitment and effect on the genetic diversity of wild populations. A seeding program, consisting of mass release of hatchery-produced juveniles in the local naturally occurring population of great scallops (Pecten maximus L.), was initiated in the early 1980s in the Bay of Brest (France). The present study aims at evaluating whether this seeding program leads to actual population enhancement, with detectable effects on genetic diversity and effective population size, or consists of sea ranching with limited genetic consequences on the wild stock. To address this question, microsatellite-based genetic monitoring of three hatchery-born and naturally recruited populations was conducted over a 5-year period. Results showed a limited reduction in allelic richness but a strong alteration of allelic frequencies in hatchery populations, while genetic diversity appeared very stable over time in the wild populations. A temporal increase in relatedness was observed in both cultured stock and wild populations. Effective population size (Ne) estimates were low and variable in the wild population. Moreover, the application of the Ryman-Laikre model suggested a high contribution of hatchery-born scallops to the reproductive output of the wild population. Overall, the data suggest that the main objective of the seeding program, which is stock enhancement, is fulfilled. Moreover, gene flow from surrounding populations and/or the reproductive input of undetected sub-populations within the bay may buffer the Ryman-Laikre effect and ensure the retention of the local genetic variability.

Estimates of effective population size and inbreeding in South African indigenous chicken populations: implications for the conservation of unique genetic resources.

PubMed

Mtileni, Bohani; Dzama, Kennedy; Nephawe, Khathutshelo; Rhode, Clint

2016-06-01

Conservation of locally adapted indigenous livestock breeds has become an important objective in sustainable animal breeding, as these breeds represent a unique genetic resource. Therefore, the Agricultural Research Council of South Africa initiated a conservation programme for four South African indigenous chicken breeds. The evaluation and monitoring of the genetic constitution of these conservation flocks is important for proper management of the conservation programme. Using molecular genetic analyses, the effective population sizes and relatedness of these conservation flocks were compared to village (field) chicken populations from which they were derived. Genetic diversity within and between these populations are further discussed within the context of population size. The conservation flocks for the respective breeds had relatively small effective population sizes (point estimate range 38.6-78.6) in comparison to the field populations (point estimate range 118.9-580.0). Furthermore, evidence supports a transient heterozygous excess, generally associated with the occurrence of a recent population bottleneck. Genetic diversity, as measured by the number of alleles, heterozygosity and information index, was also significantly reduced in the conservation flocks. The average relatedness amongst the conservation flocks was high, whilst it remained low for the field populations. There was also significant evidence for population differentiation between field and conservation populations. F st estimates for conservation flocks were moderate to high with a maximum reached between VD_C and VD_F (0.285). However, F st estimates for field population were excessively low between the NN_C and EC_F (0.007) and between EC_F and OV_F (0.009). The significant population differentiation of the conservation flocks from their geographically correlated field populations of origin is further supported by the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), with 10.51 % of genetic diversity ascribed to population differences within groups (F SC = 0.106). The results suggest that significant genetic erosion has occurred within the conservation flocks due to inbreeding, pronounced effects of random drift and selection. It might be necessary to introduce new breeding individuals from the respective field populations in order to increase the effective population sizes of the conservation flocks and counter the effects of genetic erosion.

Adaptive harvest management for the Svalbard population of pink-footed geese: 2015 progress summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Madsen, Jesper

2015-01-01

This document describes progress to date on the development of an adaptive harvest management strategy for maintaining the Svalbard population of pink‐footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) near their agreed target level (60,000) by providing for sustainable harvests in Norway and Denmark. This report provides an assessment of the most recent monitoring information (1991-2014) and its implications for the harvest management strategy, and it is an update of an initial assessment for 2013-2015 (see http://pinkfootedgoose.aewa.info/). By combining varying hypotheses about survival and reproduction, a suite of nine models have been developed that represent a wide range of possibilities concerning the extent to which demographic rates are density dependent or independent. Current updated model weights suggest little evidence for density-dependent survival and reproduction, suggesting that the population may have recently experienced a release from density-dependent mechanisms, corresponding to the period of most rapid growth in population size. The optimal harvest strategy for the 2013–2015 hunting seasons prescribed a harvest quota of 15,000 per year. The harvest in the 2014 hunting season was 14,991, compared to 11,081 in 2013, mostly due to an increase in harvest in Denmark during January 2015. The percentage of young in the fall of 2014 was 10.3%, which is lower than average. The observed population size of 59,000 in May 2015 was much lower than expected. For the 2015 hunting season, observed population size and temperature days suggest that an emergency closure should be considered. In the event a harvest of 15,000 is maintained, predicted population size in May 2016 is 51,700 (95% CL: 41,600-64,300), based on observed TempDays = 9 in May 2015 and the most recent model weights. On the other hand, if the season were closed this year, we would expect a population size of 66,700 (95% CL: 53,600-82,900) in May 2016. A total harvest of 6,700 would be expected to result in a 2016 population size at goal (i.e., 60,000).

The Cultural Evolution of Human Communication Systems in Different Sized Populations: Usability Trumps Learnability

PubMed Central

Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T. Mark

2013-01-01

This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability. PMID:23967243

The cultural evolution of human communication systems in different sized populations: usability trumps learnability.

PubMed

Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T Mark

2013-01-01

This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability.

A Three-Stage Colonization Model for the Peopling of the Americas

PubMed Central

Kitchen, Andrew; Miyamoto, Michael M.; Mulligan, Connie J.

2008-01-01

Background We evaluate the process by which the Americas were originally colonized and propose a three-stage model that integrates current genetic, archaeological, geological, and paleoecological data. Specifically, we analyze mitochondrial and nuclear genetic data by using complementary coalescent models of demographic history and incorporating non-genetic data to enhance the anthropological relevance of the analysis. Methodology/Findings Bayesian skyline plots, which provide dynamic representations of population size changes over time, indicate that Amerinds went through two stages of growth ≈40,000 and ≈15,000 years ago separated by a long period of population stability. Isolation-with-migration coalescent analyses, which utilize data from sister populations to estimate a divergence date and founder population sizes, suggest an Amerind population expansion starting ≈15,000 years ago. Conclusions/Significance These results support a model for the peopling of the New World in which Amerind ancestors diverged from the Asian gene pool prior to 40,000 years ago and experienced a gradual population expansion as they moved into Beringia. After a long period of little change in population size in greater Beringia, Amerinds rapidly expanded into the Americas ≈15,000 years ago either through an interior ice-free corridor or along the coast. This rapid colonization of the New World was achieved by a founder group with an effective population size of ≈1,000–5,400 individuals. Our model presents a detailed scenario for the timing and scale of the initial migration to the Americas, substantially refines the estimate of New World founders, and provides a unified theory for testing with future datasets and analytic methods. PMID:18270583

Oncogenic Kras initiates leukemia in hematopoietic stem cells.

PubMed

Sabnis, Amit J; Cheung, Laurene S; Dail, Monique; Kang, Hio Chung; Santaguida, Marianne; Hermiston, Michelle L; Passegué, Emmanuelle; Shannon, Kevin; Braun, Benjamin S

2009-03-17

How oncogenes modulate the self-renewal properties of cancer-initiating cells is incompletely understood. Activating KRAS and NRAS mutations are among the most common oncogenic lesions detected in human cancer, and occur in myeloproliferative disorders (MPDs) and leukemias. We investigated the effects of expressing oncogenic Kras(G12D) from its endogenous locus on the proliferation and tumor-initiating properties of murine hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells. MPD could be initiated by Kras(G12D) expression in a highly restricted population enriched for hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), but not in common myeloid progenitors. Kras(G12D) HSCs demonstrated a marked in vivo competitive advantage over wild-type cells. Kras(G12D) expression also increased the fraction of proliferating HSCs and reduced the overall size of this compartment. Transplanted Kras(G12D) HSCs efficiently initiated acute T-lineage leukemia/lymphoma, which was associated with secondary Notch1 mutations in thymocytes. We conclude that MPD-initiating activity is restricted to the HSC compartment in Kras(G12D) mice, and that distinct self-renewing populations with cooperating mutations emerge during cancer progression.

Emergence of social cooperation in threshold public goods games with collective risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jing; Fu, Feng; Wu, Te; Wang, Long

2009-07-01

In real situations, people are often faced with the option of voluntary contribution to achieve a collective goal, for example, building a dam or a fence, in order to avoid an unfavorable loss. Those who do not donate, however, can free ride on others’ sacrifices. As a result, cooperation is difficult to maintain, leading to an enduring collective-risk social dilemma. To address this issue, here we propose a simple yet effective theoretical model of threshold public goods game with collective risk and focus on the effect of risk on the emergence of social cooperation. To do this, we consider the population dynamics represented by replicator equation for two simplifying scenarios, respectively: one with fair sharers, who contribute the minimum average amount versus defectors and the other with altruists contributing more than average versus defectors. For both cases, we find that the dilemma is relieved in high-risk situations where cooperation is likely to persist and dominate defection in the population. Large initial endowment to individuals also encourages the risk-averse action, which means that, as compared to poor players (with small initial endowment), wealthy individuals (with large initial endowment) are more likely to cooperate in order to protect their private accounts. In addition, we show that small donation amount and small threshold (collective target) can encourage and sustain cooperation. Furthermore, for other parameters fixed, the impacts of group size act differently on the two scenarios because of distinct mechanisms: in the former case where the cost of cooperation depends on the group size, large size of group readily results in defection, while easily maintains cooperation in the latter case where the cost of cooperation is fixed irrespective of the group size. Our theoretical results of the replicator dynamics are in excellent agreement with the individual based simulation results.

FITPOP, a heuristic simulation model of population dynamics and genetics with special reference to fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.

2000-01-01

Although, perceiving genetic differences and their effects on fish population dynamics is difficult, simulation models offer a means to explore and illustrate these effects. I partitioned the intrinsic rate of increase parameter of a simple logistic-competition model into three components, allowing specification of effects of relative differences in fitness and mortality, as well as finite rate of increase. This model was placed into an interactive, stochastic environment to allow easy manipulation of model parameters (FITPOP). Simulation results illustrated the effects of subtle differences in genetic and population parameters on total population size, overall fitness, and sensitivity of the system to variability. Several consequences of mixing genetically distinct populations were illustrated. For example, behaviors such as depression of population size after initial introgression and extirpation of native stocks due to continuous stocking of genetically inferior fish were reproduced. It also was shown that carrying capacity relative to the amount of stocking had an important influence on population dynamics. Uncertainty associated with parameter estimates reduced confidence in model projections. The FITPOP model provided a simple tool to explore population dynamics, which may assist in formulating management strategies and identifying research needs.

Population survey and management strategies of free-roaming dogs (Canis familiaris) on Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.

PubMed

Nimer, Adrianna; Meneses, Nashelly; Watson, Zachary D; Shuster, Stephen M; Benford, Russell

2018-01-01

The island of Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, is populated by free-roaming dogs who were introduced during World War II. The local nonhuman animal control agency manages this population; however, the demographic information and public perception of this population remain unknown. To characterize the free-roaming dog population, an island-wide survey on Saipan was conducted. Photographic, mark-recapture data were used to estimate the population size per land type. Age, sex, sociality, and behavior per land type were documented and associations between these variables were tested using G tests. The effects of land type and urbanization on dog abundance were also analyzed. Lastly, in-person surveys provided data on the public perception of free-roaming dogs. Four main findings are reported: (a) The population size of free-roaming dogs on Saipan is estimated at 21,316. (b) Most dogs encountered were sentry adults. (c) Dog abundance increased with urbanization level and was highest in urban areas. (d) The public perceived free-roaming dogs as a health concern and suggested the implementation of leash laws and sheltering initiatives. This article discusses potential and existing population management strategies for free-roaming dogs on Saipan.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pauly, Tyler; Garrod, Robin T., E-mail: tap74@cornell.edu

Computational models of interstellar gas-grain chemistry have historically adopted a single dust-grain size of 0.1 micron, assumed to be representative of the size distribution present in the interstellar medium. Here, we investigate the effects of a broad grain-size distribution on the chemistry of dust-grain surfaces and the subsequent build-up of molecular ices on the grains, using a three-phase gas-grain chemical model of a quiescent dark cloud. We include an explicit treatment of the grain temperatures, governed both by the visual extinction of the cloud and the size of each individual grain-size population. We find that the temperature difference plays amore » significant role in determining the total bulk ice composition across the grain-size distribution, while the effects of geometrical differences between size populations appear marginal. We also consider collapse from a diffuse to a dark cloud, allowing dust temperatures to fall. Under the initial diffuse conditions, small grains are too warm to promote grain-mantle build-up, with most ices forming on the mid-sized grains. As collapse proceeds, the more abundant, smallest grains cool and become the dominant ice carriers; the large population of small grains means that this ice is distributed across many grains, with perhaps no more than 40 monolayers of ice each (versus several hundred assuming a single grain size). This effect may be important for the subsequent processing and desorption of the ice during the hot-core phase of star formation, exposing a significant proportion of the ice to the gas phase, increasing the importance of ice-surface chemistry and surface–gas interactions.« less

American Exceptionalism: Population Trends and Flight Initiation Distances in Birds from Three Continents

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders Pape; Samia, Diogo S. M.; Weston, Mike A.; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Blumstein, Daniel T.

2014-01-01

Background All organisms may be affected by humans' increasing impact on Earth, but there are many potential drivers of population trends and the relative importance of each remains largely unknown. The causes of spatial patterns in population trends and their relationship with animal responses to human proximity are even less known. Methodology/Principal Finding We investigated the relationship between population trends of 193 species of bird in North America, Australia and Europe and flight initiation distance (FID); the distance at which birds take flight when approached by a human. While there is an expected negative relationship between population trend and FID in Australia and Europe, we found the inverse relationship for North American birds; thus FID cannot be used as a universal predictor of vulnerability of birds. However, the analysis of the joint explanatory ability of multiple drivers (farmland breeding habitat, pole-most breeding latitude, migratory habit, FID) effects on population status replicated previously reported strong effects of farmland breeding habitat (an effect apparently driven mostly by European birds), as well as strong effects of FID, body size, migratory habit and continent. Farmland birds are generally declining. Conclusions/Significance Flight initiation distance is related to population trends in a way that differs among continents opening new research possibilities concerning the causes of geographic differences in patterns of anti-predator behavior. PMID:25226165

Persistence of butterfly populations in fragmented habitats along urban density gradients: motility helps

PubMed Central

Rochat, E; Manel, S; Deschamps-Cottin, M; Widmer, I; Joost, S

2017-01-01

In a simulation study of genotypes conducted over 100 generations for more than 1600 butterfly’s individuals, we evaluate how the increase of anthropogenic fragmentation and reduction of habitat size along urbanisation gradients (from 7 to 59% of impervious land cover) influences genetic diversity and population persistence in butterfly species. We show that in areas characterised by a high urbanisation rate (>56% impervious land cover), a large decrease of both genetic diversity (loss of 60–80% of initial observed heterozygosity) and population size (loss of 70–90% of individuals) is observed over time. This is confirmed by empirical data available for the mobile butterfly species Pieris rapae in a subpart of the study area. Comparing simulated data for P. rapae with its normal dispersal ability and with a reduced dispersal ability, we also show that a higher dispersal ability can be an advantage to survive in an urban or highly fragmented environment. The results obtained here suggest that it is of high importance to account for population persistence, and confirm that it is crucial to maintain habitat size and connectivity in the context of land-use planning. PMID:28792492

The estimation of growth dynamics for Pomacea maculata from hatchling to adult

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, Karyn L.; Zhao, Lihong; Carter, Jacoby

2017-01-01

Pomacea maculata is a relatively new invasive species to the Gulf Coast region and potentially threatens local agriculture (rice) and ecosystems (aquatic vegetation). The population dynamics of P. maculata have largely been unquantified, and therefore, scientists and field-workers are ill-equipped to accurately project population sizes and the resulting impact of this species. We studied the growth of P. maculata ranging in weights from 6 to 105 g, identifying the sex of the animals when possible. Our studied population had a 4:9 male:female sex ratio. We present the findings from initial analysis of the individual growth data of males and females, from which it was apparent that females were generally larger than males and that small snails grew faster than larger snails. Since efforts to characterize the male and female growth rates from individual data do not yield statistically supported estimates, we present the estimation of several parameterized growth rate functions within a population-level mathematical model. We provide a comparison of the results using these various growth functions and discuss which best characterizes the dynamics of our observed population. We conclude that both males and females exhibit biphasic growth rates, and thus, their growth is size-dependent. Further, our results suggest that there are notable differences between males and females that are important to take into consideration in order to accurately model this species' population dynamics. Lastly, we include preliminary analyses of ongoing experiments to provide initial estimates of growth in the earliest life stages (hatchling to ≈6 g).

Formation of solar system analogues - I. Looking for initial conditions through a population synthesis analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, M. P.; Guilera, O. M.; de Elía, G. C.

2017-11-01

Population synthesis models of planetary systems developed during the last ˜15 yr could reproduce several of the observables of the exoplanet population, and also allowed us to constrain planetary formation models. We present our planet formation model, which calculates the evolution of a planetary system during the gaseous phase. The code incorporates relevant physical phenomena for the formation of a planetary system, like photoevaporation, planet migration, gas accretion, water delivery in embryos and planetesimals, a detailed study of the orbital evolution of the planetesimal population, and the treatment of the fusion between embryos, considering their atmospheres. The main goal of this work, unlike other works of planetary population synthesis, is to find suitable scenarios and physical parameters of the disc to form Solar system analogues. We are specially interested in the final planet distributions, and in the final surface density, eccentricity and inclination profiles for the planetesimal population. These final distributions will be used as initial conditions for N-body simulations to study the post-oligarchic formation in a second work. We then consider different formation scenarios, with different planetesimal sizes and different type I migration rates. We find that Solar system analogues are favoured in massive discs, with low type I migration rates, and small planetesimal sizes. Besides, those rocky planets within their habitables zones are dry when discs dissipate. At last, the final configurations of Solar system analogues include information about the mass and semimajor axis of the planets, water contents, and the properties of the planetesimal remnants.

A multi-populations multi-strategies differential evolution algorithm for structural optimization of metal nanoclusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Tian-E.; Shao, Gui-Fang; Ji, Qing-Shuang; Zheng, Ji-Wen; Liu, Tun-dong; Wen, Yu-Hua

2016-11-01

Theoretically, the determination of the structure of a cluster is to search the global minimum on its potential energy surface. The global minimization problem is often nondeterministic-polynomial-time (NP) hard and the number of local minima grows exponentially with the cluster size. In this article, a multi-populations multi-strategies differential evolution algorithm has been proposed to search the globally stable structure of Fe and Cr nanoclusters. The algorithm combines a multi-populations differential evolution with an elite pool scheme to keep the diversity of the solutions and avoid prematurely trapping into local optima. Moreover, multi-strategies such as growing method in initialization and three differential strategies in mutation are introduced to improve the convergence speed and lower the computational cost. The accuracy and effectiveness of our algorithm have been verified by comparing the results of Fe clusters with Cambridge Cluster Database. Meanwhile, the performance of our algorithm has been analyzed by comparing the convergence rate and energy evaluations with the classical DE algorithm. The multi-populations, multi-strategies mutation and growing method in initialization in our algorithm have been considered respectively. Furthermore, the structural growth pattern of Cr clusters has been predicted by this algorithm. The results show that the lowest-energy structure of Cr clusters contains many icosahedra, and the number of the icosahedral rings rises with increasing size.

Trojan Binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noll, K. S.

2017-12-01

The Jupiter Trojans, in the context of giant planet migration models, can be thought of as an extension of the small body populations found beyond Neptune in the Kuiper Belt. Binaries are a distinctive feature of small body populations in the Kuiper Belt with an especially high fraction apparent among the brightest Cold Classicals. The binary fraction, relative sizes, and separations in the dynamically excited populations (Scattered, Resonant) reflects processes that may have eroded a more abundant initial population. This trend continues in the Centaurs and Trojans where few binaries have been found. We review new evidence including a third resolved Trojan binary and lightcurve studies to understand how the Trojans are related to the small body populations that originated in the outer protoplanetary disk.

Numerical solution of a logistic growth model for a population with Allee effect considering fuzzy initial values and fuzzy parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Z.; Nurkholipah, N. S.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

2018-03-01

Predicting the future of population number is among the important factors that affect the consideration in preparing a good management for the population. This has been done by various known method, one among them is by developing a mathematical model describing the growth of the population. The model usually takes form in a differential equation or a system of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. The most widely used growth models currently are those having a sigmoid solution of time series, including the Verhulst logistic equation and the Gompertz equation. In this paper we consider the Allee effect of the Verhulst’s logistic population model. The Allee effect is a phenomenon in biology showing a high correlation between population size or density and the mean individual fitness of the population. The method used to derive the solution is the Runge-Kutta numerical scheme, since it is in general regarded as one among the good numerical scheme which is relatively easy to implement. Further exploration is done via the fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate the impreciseness of the initial values and parameters in the model.

Atypical reproductive cycles in a population of Sceloporus grammicus (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae) from the Mexican Plateau

PubMed Central

Ramírez-Bautista, Aurelio; Stephenson, Barry P; Lozano, Abraham; Uribe-Rodríguez, Héctor; Leyte Manrique, Adrian

2012-01-01

The spiny lizard Sceloporus grammicus (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae) is a small reptile from central México and the southern United States, occurring in a wide geographic area characterized by extensive variation in topographic and climatic regimes. Genetic variation among lineages from central México is substantial, though the extent to which this variation corresponds with life-history traits remains obscure. To address part of this puzzle, we studied a population of S. grammicus from Tepeapulco, Hidalgo, México. Male-biased sexual dimorphism was extensive in this population; males were larger than females overall, and expressed proportionately larger heads and longer limbs. Minimum size at sexual maturity was similar in the sexes (males: 43 mm; females: 42 mm). In contrast to other populations from the Central Plateau, reproductive activity of males and females was synchronous. Testicular recrudescence of adult males was initiated in October–November, and maximum testis size maintained from December to July. Female reproductive activity showed no clear seasonal pattern: females had vitellogenic follicles from October to July, and pregnant females were found throughout the year. Female body size was not related to litter size. Neither male nor female gonadal mass was correlated with any abiotic environmental variable examined. Differences in reproductive characteristics among populations of S. grammicus might be indicative of plasticity in response to local environmental conditions, local adaptation, or complex gene × environment interactions. We consider these results in the context of previously studied populations of S. grammicus from the Central Plateau and elsewhere, and propose directions for future research. PMID:22957191

Planetary population synthesis coupled with atmospheric escape: a statistical view of evaporation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Sheng; Ji, Jianghui; Mordasini, Christoph

2014-11-01

We apply hydrodynamic evaporation models to different synthetic planet populations that were obtained from a planet formation code based on the core-accretion paradigm. We investigated the evolution of the planet populations using several evaporation models, which are distinguished by the driving force of the escape flow (X-ray or EUV), the heating efficiency in energy-limited evaporation regimes, or both. Although the mass distribution of the planet populations is barely affected by evaporation, the radius distribution clearly shows a break at approximately 2 R {sub ⊕}. We find that evaporation can lead to a bimodal distribution of planetary sizes and to anmore » 'evaporation valley' running diagonally downward in the orbital distance—planetary radius plane, separating bare cores from low-mass planets that have kept some primordial H/He. Furthermore, this bimodal distribution is related to the initial characteristics of the planetary populations because low-mass planetary cores can only accrete small primordial H/He envelopes and their envelope masses are proportional to their core masses. We also find that the population-wide effect of evaporation is not sensitive to the heating efficiency of energy-limited description. However, in two extreme cases, namely without evaporation or with a 100% heating efficiency in an evaporation model, the final size distributions show significant differences; these two scenarios can be ruled out from the size distribution of Kepler candidates.« less

Demographic Divergence History of Pied Flycatcher and Collared Flycatcher Inferred from Whole-Genome Re-sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Olason, Pall I.; Kawakami, Takeshi; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2013-01-01

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000–80,000) and census sizes (5–50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species. PMID:24244198

Demographic divergence history of pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher inferred from whole-genome re-sequencing data.

PubMed

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Olason, Pall I; Kawakami, Takeshi; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2013-11-01

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000-80,000) and census sizes (5-50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species.

Effect of Bimodal Grain Size Distribution on Scatter in Toughness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakrabarti, Debalay; Strangwood, Martin; Davis, Claire

2009-04-01

Blunt-notch tests were performed at -160 °C to investigate the effect of a bimodal ferrite grain size distribution in steel on cleavage fracture toughness, by comparing local fracture stress values for heat-treated microstructures with uniformly fine, uniformly coarse, and bimodal grain structures. An analysis of fracture stress values indicates that bimodality can have a significant effect on toughness by generating high scatter in the fracture test results. Local cleavage fracture values were related to grain size distributions and it was shown that the largest grains in the microstructure, with an area percent greater than approximately 4 pct, gave rise to cleavage initiation. In the case of the bimodal grain size distribution, the large grains from both the “fine grain” and “coarse grain” population initiate cleavage; this spread in grain size values resulted in higher scatter in the fracture stress than in the unimodal distributions. The notch-bend test results have been used to explain the difference in scatter in the Charpy energies for the unimodal and bimodal ferrite grain size distributions of thermomechanically controlled rolled (TMCR) steel, in which the bimodal distribution showed higher scatter in the Charpy impact transition (IT) region.

Fossil and genetic history of a pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) isolate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Betancourt, J.L.; Schuster, W.S.; Mitton, J.B.; Anderson, R. Scott

1991-01-01

The most isolated northern stand of Colorado pinyon pine at Owl Canyon, Colorado, has a broad and flat size class distribution common to population expansions, with the largest and oldest trees near the center of the grove. Analyses of fossil packrat Neotoma middens within the grove indicate that the stand originated by long-distance dispersal rather than by vicariance. The 5000-yr pollen and macrofossil record suggests that pinyon pine colonized the site sometime between 1290-420 yr BP, the latter age corresponding to the oldest tree in the stand. Electrophoretic data show that this colonization was not attended by typical founder effects predicted by theory or observed for other known founder events. The Owl Canyon stand has not suffered significant losses in genetic variation relative to likely source populations. Large initial population size, multiple founding events, rapid population growth, or selection favoring heterozygous genotypes could all explain the high heterozygosity and only slightly reduced polymorphism and number of alleles per locus. -from Authors

The Effects of Grain Size and Temperature Distributions on the Formation of Interstellar Ice Mantles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pauly, Tyler; Garrod, Robin T.

2016-02-01

Computational models of interstellar gas-grain chemistry have historically adopted a single dust-grain size of 0.1 micron, assumed to be representative of the size distribution present in the interstellar medium. Here, we investigate the effects of a broad grain-size distribution on the chemistry of dust-grain surfaces and the subsequent build-up of molecular ices on the grains, using a three-phase gas-grain chemical model of a quiescent dark cloud. We include an explicit treatment of the grain temperatures, governed both by the visual extinction of the cloud and the size of each individual grain-size population. We find that the temperature difference plays a significant role in determining the total bulk ice composition across the grain-size distribution, while the effects of geometrical differences between size populations appear marginal. We also consider collapse from a diffuse to a dark cloud, allowing dust temperatures to fall. Under the initial diffuse conditions, small grains are too warm to promote grain-mantle build-up, with most ices forming on the mid-sized grains. As collapse proceeds, the more abundant, smallest grains cool and become the dominant ice carriers; the large population of small grains means that this ice is distributed across many grains, with perhaps no more than 40 monolayers of ice each (versus several hundred assuming a single grain size). This effect may be important for the subsequent processing and desorption of the ice during the hot-core phase of star formation, exposing a significant proportion of the ice to the gas phase, increasing the importance of ice-surface chemistry and surface-gas interactions.

Commercial coral-reef fisheries across Micronesia: A need for improving management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houk, P.; Rhodes, K.; Cuetos-Bueno, J.; Lindfield, S.; Fread, V.; McIlwain, J. L.

2012-03-01

A dearth of scientific data surrounding Micronesia's coral-reef fisheries has limited their formal assessment and continues to hinder local and regional management efforts. We approach this problem by comparing catch-based datasets from market landings across Micronesia to evaluate fishery status in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), Guam, Yap, and Pohnpei. Initial examinations found that calm weather and low lunar illumination predicted between 6% (Yap) and 30% (CNMI) of the variances in daily commercial landings. Both environmentally driven catch success and daily catch variability increased in accordance with reef-fish demand indices. Subsequent insight from species composition and size-at-capture data supported these findings, highlighting reduced trophic levels and capture sizes where higher human-population-per-reef-area existed. Among the 12-15 target species and/or species complexes that accounted for 70% of the harvest biomass, capture sizes were consistently smallest for CNMI and Guam, often below the reported mean reproductive sizes. Comparatively, Pohnpei has the greatest potential for reef fisheries, with a large reef area (303 km2) and a moderate human population (34,000 people). However, the estimated harvest volume of 476 mt year-1 was 8-9 times higher than other jurisdictions. Even on Yap where the reef-fish demand index was lowest (67.7 people km-2 reef habitat), many target fish were harvested below their mean reproductive sizes, including the iconic green bumphead parrotfish and humphead wrasse, as well as several other herbivores. We discuss our results with respect to the contemporary doctrine surrounding size-spectra, catch composition, and catch frequencies that afford insight into fishery pressure and status. We posit that regional catch-based policies (initially) instituted at the market level, combined with area and gear-based restrictions, represent plausible vectors for improving Micronesian fisheries.

Effect size calculation in meta-analyses of psychotherapy outcome research.

PubMed

Hoyt, William T; Del Re, A C

2018-05-01

Meta-analysis of psychotherapy intervention research normally examines differences between treatment groups and some form of comparison group (e.g., wait list control; alternative treatment group). The effect of treatment is normally quantified as a standardized mean difference (SMD). We describe procedures for computing unbiased estimates of the population SMD from sample data (e.g., group Ms and SDs), and provide guidance about a number of complications that may arise related to effect size computation. These complications include (a) incomplete data in research reports; (b) use of baseline data in computing SMDs and estimating the population standard deviation (σ); (c) combining effect size data from studies using different research designs; and (d) appropriate techniques for analysis of data from studies providing multiple estimates of the effect of interest (i.e., dependent effect sizes). Clinical or Methodological Significance of this article: Meta-analysis is a set of techniques for producing valid summaries of existing research. The initial computational step for meta-analyses of research on intervention outcomes involves computing an effect size quantifying the change attributable to the intervention. We discuss common issues in the computation of effect sizes and provide recommended procedures to address them.

Two-strain competition in quasineutral stochastic disease dynamics.

PubMed

Kogan, Oleg; Khasin, Michael; Meerson, Baruch; Schneider, David; Myers, Christopher R

2014-10-01

We develop a perturbation method for studying quasineutral competition in a broad class of stochastic competition models and apply it to the analysis of fixation of competing strains in two epidemic models. The first model is a two-strain generalization of the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model. Here we extend previous results due to Parsons and Quince [Theor. Popul. Biol. 72, 468 (2007)], Parsons et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 74, 302 (2008)], and Lin, Kim, and Doering [J. Stat. Phys. 148, 646 (2012)]. The second model, a two-strain generalization of the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with population turnover, has not been studied previously. In each of the two models, when the basic reproduction numbers of the two strains are identical, a system with an infinite population size approaches a point on the deterministic coexistence line (CL): a straight line of fixed points in the phase space of subpopulation sizes. Shot noise drives one of the strain populations to fixation, and the other to extinction, on a time scale proportional to the total population size. Our perturbation method explicitly tracks the dynamics of the probability distribution of the subpopulations in the vicinity of the CL. We argue that, whereas the slow strain has a competitive advantage for mathematically "typical" initial conditions, it is the fast strain that is more likely to win in the important situation when a few infectives of both strains are introduced into a susceptible population.

Identification of a new stem cell population that generates Drosophila flight muscles.

PubMed

Gunage, Rajesh D; Reichert, Heinrich; VijayRaghavan, K

2014-08-18

How myoblast populations are regulated for the formation of muscles of different sizes is an essentially unanswered question. The large flight muscles of Drosophila develop from adult muscle progenitor (AMP) cells set-aside embryonically. The thoracic segments are all allotted the same small AMP number, while those associated with the wing-disc proliferate extensively to give rise to over 2500 myoblasts. An initial amplification occurs through symmetric divisions and is followed by a switch to asymmetric divisions in which the AMPs self-renew and generate post-mitotic myoblasts. Notch signaling controls the initial amplification of AMPs, while the switch to asymmetric division additionally requires Wingless, which regulates Numb expression in the AMP lineage. In both cases, the epidermal tissue of the wing imaginal disc acts as a niche expressing the ligands Serrate and Wingless. The disc-associated AMPs are a novel muscle stem cell population that orchestrates the early phases of adult flight muscle development.

Correlates of Sexual Abuse and Smoking among French Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Gary; Guilbert, Philippe; Ward, D. Gant; Arwidson, Pierre; Noubary, Farzad

2006-01-01

Objective: The goal of this study was to examine the association between sexual abuse (SA) and initiation, cessation, and current cigarette smoking among a large representative adult population in France. Method: A random sample size of 12,256 adults (18-75 years of age) was interviewed by telephone concerning demographic variables, health…

The Asian Longhorned Beetle: National and International Research Efforts

Treesearch

Robert A. Haack; Therese M. Poland; Toby Patrice; Matt Gennrich

2000-01-01

Established populations of the Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabeipennis, were first discovered in New York City in 1996 and then in Chicago in 1998. Because of the limited number and size of infestations discovered in 1996, the US Department of Agriculmre (USDA) initiated an eradication program that requires cutting and chipping of all...

Predicting Receptive-Expressive Vocabulary Discrepancies in Preschool Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder.

PubMed

McDaniel, Jena; Yoder, Paul; Woynaroski, Tiffany; Watson, Linda R

2018-05-15

Correlates of receptive-expressive vocabulary size discrepancies may provide insights into why language development in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) deviates from typical language development and ultimately improve intervention outcomes. We indexed receptive-expressive vocabulary size discrepancies of 65 initially preverbal children with ASD (20-48 months) to a comparison sample from the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventories Wordbank (Frank, Braginsky, Yurovsky, & Marchman, 2017) to quantify typicality. We then tested whether attention toward a speaker and oral motor performance predict typicality of the discrepancy 8 months later. Attention toward a speaker correlated positively with receptive-expressive vocabulary size discrepancy typicality. Imitative and nonimitative oral motor performance were not significant predictors of vocabulary size discrepancy typicality. Secondary analyses indicated that midpoint receptive vocabulary size mediated the association between initial attention toward a speaker and end point receptive-expressive vocabulary size discrepancy typicality. Findings support the hypothesis that variation in attention toward a speaker might partially explain receptive-expressive vocabulary size discrepancy magnitude in children with ASD. Results are consistent with an input-processing deficit explanation of language impairment in this clinical population. Future studies should test whether attention toward a speaker is malleable and causally related to receptive-expressive discrepancies in children with ASD.

Managing the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population: The role of density.

PubMed

Hernandez-Pacheco, Raisa; Delgado, Diana L; Rawlins, Richard G; Kessler, Matthew J; Ruiz-Lambides, Angelina V; Maldonado, Elizabeth; Sabat, Alberto M

2016-01-01

Cayo Santiago is the oldest continuously operating free-ranging rhesus monkey colony in the world. Population control of this colony has historically been carried out by periodic live capture and removal of animals. However, the effect of such a strategy on the size, growth rate, age structure, and sex ratio of the population has not been analyzed. This study reviews past removal data and uses a population projection model to simulate the effects of different removal schemes based on Cayo Santiago demographic data from 2000-2012. The model incorporates negative density-dependence in female fertility, as well as male and female survival rates, to determine the population-level effects of selective removal by age and sex. Modeling revealed that removal of sexually immature individuals has negligible effects on the population dynamics explaining why with an initial population of 1309 in 2000 and annual removals of immature monkeys a mean annual population growth rate of 12% and a final population size of ∼1,435 individuals by 2012 (∼0.009 animal/m(2) ) was observed. With no removals, the population is expected to exhibit dampened oscillations until reaching equilibrium at ∼1,690 individuals (∼0.0111 animal/m(2) ) in 2,100. In contrast, removal of adult females (≥4 yrs) would significantly reduce the population size, but would also promote an increase in population growth rate due to density feedback. A maximum annual production of 275 births is expected when 550 adult females are present in the population. Sensitivity analyses showed that removing females, in contrast to controlling their fertility through invasive treatments would contribute the most to changes in population growth rate. Given the density compensation on fertility, stabilizing the population would require removing ∼80% of the current population of adult females. This study highlights the importance of addressing the population-level density effects, as well as sensitivity analyses, to optimize management strategies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

PubMed

Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

2015-12-01

Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in < 1% of model runs and for only 2 of the 4 species, because landscape-scale populations were able to persist via dispersal even despite frequent local extinctions. Yet for all species, population sizes were reduced to -50% in all clear-cut scenarios, regardless of the size of harvested patches. These findings suggest that debate over timber harvesting on pool-breeding amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

The role of colonization in the dynamics of patchy populations of a cyclic vole species.

PubMed

Glorvigen, Petter; Gundersen, Gry; Andreassen, Harry P; Ims, Rolf A

2013-09-01

The crash phase of vole populations with cyclic dynamics regularly leads to vast areas of uninhabited habitats. Yet although the capacity for cyclic voles to re-colonize such empty space is likely to be large and predicted to have become evolved as a distinct life history trait, the processes of colonization and its effect on the spatio-temporal dynamics have been little studied. Here we report from an experiment with root voles (Microtus oeconomus) specifically targeted at quantifying the process of colonization of empty patches from distant source patches and its resultant effect on local vole deme size variation in a patchy landscape. Three experimental factors: habitat quality, predation risk and inter-patch distance were employed among 24 habitat patches in a 100 × 300-m experimental area. The first-born cohort in the spring efficiently colonized almost all empty patches irrespective of the degree of patch isolation and predation risk, but this was dependent on habitat quality. Just after the initial colonization wave the deme sizes in patches of the same quality were underdispersed relative to Poisson variance, indicating regulated (density-dependent) settlement. Towards the end of the breeding season local demographic processes acted to smooth out the initial post-colonization differences among source and colonization patches, and among patches of initially different quality. However, at this time demographic stochasticity had also given rise to a large (overdispersed) variation in deme sizes that may have contributed to an overshadowing of the effect of other factors. The results of this experiment confirmed our expectation that the space-filling capacity of voles is large. The costs associated with transience appeared to be so low, at least at the spatial scale considered in this experiment, that such costs are not likely to substantially constrain habitat selection and colonization in the increase phase of cyclic patchy populations.

The basic reproduction number R0 and effectiveness of reactive interventions during dengue epidemics: the 2002 dengue outbreak in Easter Island, Chile.

PubMed

Chowell, Gerardo; Fuentes, R; Olea, A; Aguilera, X; Nesse, H; Hyman, J M

2013-01-01

We use a stochastic simulation model to explore the effect of reactive intervention strategies during the 2002 dengue outbreak in the small population of Easter Island, Chile. We quantified the effect of interventions on the transmission dynamics and epidemic size as a function of the simulated control intensity levels and the timing of initiation of control interventions. Because no dengue outbreaks had been reported prior to 2002 in Easter Island, the 2002 epidemic provided a unique opportunity to estimate the basic reproduction number R0 during the initial epidemic phase, prior to the start of control interventions. We estimated R0 at 27.2 (95%CI: 14.8, 49.3). We found that the final epidemic size is highly sensitive to the timing of start of interventions. However, even when the control interventions start several weeks after the epidemic onset, reactive intervention efforts can have a significant impact on the final epidemic size. Our results indicate that the rapid implementation of control interventions can have a significant effect in reducing the epidemic size of dengue epidemics.

An example of phenotypic adherence to the island rule? – Anticosti gray jays are heavier but not structurally larger than mainland conspecifics

PubMed Central

Strickland, Dan; Norris, D Ryan

2015-01-01

The island rule refers to the tendency of small vertebrates to become larger when isolated on islands and the frequent dwarfing of large forms. It implies genetic control, and a necessary linkage, of size and body-mass differences between insular and mainland populations. To examine the island rule, we compared body size and mass of gray jays (Perisoreus canadensis) on Anticosti Island, Québec, located in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, with three mainland populations (2 in Québec and 1 in Ontario). Although gray jays on Anticosti Island were ca 10% heavier, they were not structurally larger, than the three mainland populations. This suggests that Anticosti jays are not necessarily genetically distinct from mainland gray jays and that they may have achieved their greater body masses solely through packing more mass onto mainland-sized body frames. As such, they may be the first-known example of a proposed, purely phenotypic initial step in the adherence to the island rule by an insular population. Greater jay body mass is probably advantageous in Anticosti's high-density, intensely competitive social environment that may have resulted from the island's lack of mammalian nest predators. PMID:26380697

First passage properties of a generalized Pólya urn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearney, Michael J.; Martin, Richard J.

2016-12-01

A generalized two-component Pólya urn process, parameterized by a variable α , is studied in terms of the likelihood that due to fluctuations the initially smaller population in a scenario of competing population growth eventually becomes the larger, or is the larger after a certain passage of time. By casting the problem as an inhomogeneous directed random walk we quantify this role-reversal phenomenon through the first passage probability that equality in size is first reached at a given time, and the related exit probability that equality in size is reached no later than a given time. Using an embedding technique, exact results are obtained which complement existing results and provide new insights into behavioural changes (akin to phase transitions) which occur at defined values of α .

Performance indicators evaluation of the population-based breast cancer screening programme in Northern Portugal using the European Guidelines.

PubMed

Bento, Maria José; Gonçalves, Guilherme; Aguiar, Ana; Castro, Clara; Veloso, Vitor; Rodrigues, Vítor

2015-10-01

To evaluate the first 10 years of operation of the population-based breast cancer screening programme implemented in the Northern Region of Portugal, using selected recommended standard performance indicators. Data from women aged 50-69 screened with two-view mammography, biennially, in the period 2000-2009, were included. Main performance indicators were compared with the recommended levels of the European Guidelines. A total of 202,039 screening examinations were performed, 71,731 (35.5%) in the initial screening and 130,308 (64.5%) in the subsequent screening. Coverage rate by examination reached 74.3% of the target population, in the last period evaluated. Recall rates were 8.1% and 2.4% and cancer detection rates were 4.4/1000 and 2.9/1000 respectively, for initial and subsequent screenings. The breast cancer detection rate, expressed as a multiple of the background expected incidence was 3.1 in initial screen and 2.2 in subsequent screen. The incidence of invasive interval cancers met the desirable recommended levels both the first and second years since last screening examination, in the initial and subsequent screenings. Invasive tumours <15mm were 50.4% and 53.8% of the invasive cancers detected in initial and subsequent screenings. Less favourable size, grading and biomarkers expression were found in interval cancers compared to screen-detected cancers. Breast cancer screening programme in the Northern Region of Portugal was well accepted by the population. Most of the performance indicators were consistent with the desirable levels of the European Guidelines, which indicate an effective screening programme. Future research should verify the consistency of some of these results by using updated information from a larger population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crash and rebound of indigenous populations in lowland South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, Marcus J.; Walker, Robert S.; Kesler, Dylan C.

2014-04-01

Lowland South America has long been a battle-ground between European colonization and indigenous survival. Initial waves of European colonization brought disease epidemics, slavery, and violence that had catastrophic impacts on indigenous cultures. In this paper we focus on the demography of 238 surviving populations in Brazil. We use longitudinal censuses from all known indigenous Brazilian societies to quantify three demographic metrics: 1) effects of European contact on indigenous populations; 2) empirical estimates of minimum viable population sizes; and 3) estimates of post-contact population growth rates. We use this information to conduct population viability analysis (PVA). Our results show that all surviving populations suffered extensive mortality during, and shortly after, contact. However, most surviving populations exhibit positive growth rates within the first decade post-contact. Our findings paint a positive demographic outlook for these indigenous populations, though long-term survival remains subject to powerful externalities, including politics, economics, and the pervasive illegal exploitation of indigenous lands.

House Wrens adjust laying dates and clutch size in relation to annual flooding

Treesearch

Deborah M. Finch

1991-01-01

I examined timing of reproduction and productivity in box-nesting House Wrens (Troglodytes aedon) inhabiting three riverbank woodlands subjected to different levels of flooding. In years when the North Platte River flooded its banks submerging ground foraging substrates, dates of nest initiation and egg laying in two wren populations were delayed and nonsynchronized....

Height and seasonal growth pattern of jack pine full-sib families

Treesearch

Don E. Riemenschneider

1981-01-01

Total tree height, seasonal shoot elongation, dates of growth initiation and cessation, and mean daily growth rate were measured and analyzed for a population of jack pine full-sib families derived from inter-provenance crosses. Parental provenance had no effect on these variables although this may have been due to small sample size. Progenies differed significantly...

Demographic monitoring of Wright fishhook cactus

Treesearch

Ronald J. Kass

2001-01-01

Wright fishhook cactus (Sclerocactus wrightiae Benson) is a small barrel cactus endemic to the San Rafael Swell in south-central Utah. It was listed as an endangered species in 1979 due to its small population size, threats of over-collecting, and development associated with oil and gas. Demographic monitoring was initiated in 1993 with the following objectives: to...

Smoking initiation among young adults in the United States and Canada, 1998-2010: a systematic review.

PubMed

Freedman, Kit S; Nelson, Nanette M; Feldman, Laura L

2012-01-01

Young adults have the highest smoking rate of any age group in the United States and Canada, and recent data indicate that they often initiate smoking as young adults. The objective of this study was to systematically review peer-reviewed articles on cigarette smoking initiation and effective prevention efforts among young adults. We searched 5 databases for research articles published in English between 1998 and 2010 on smoking initiation among young adults (aged 18-25) living in the United States or Canada. We extracted the following data from each study selected: the measure of initiation used, age range of initiation, age range of study population, data source, target population, sampling method, and sample size. We summarized the primary findings of each study according to 3 research questions and categories of data (eg, sociodemographic) that emerged during the data extraction process. Of 1,072 identified studies, we found 27 articles that met our search criteria, but several included a larger age range of initiation (eg, 18-30, 18-36) than we initially intended to include. Disparities in young adult smoking initiation existed according to sex, race, and educational attainment. The use of alcohol and illegal drugs was associated with smoking initiation. The risk of smoking initiation among young adults increased under the following circumstances: exposure to smoking, boredom or stress while serving in the military, attending tobacco-sponsored social events while in college, and exposure to social norms and perceptions that encourage smoking. Effective prevention efforts include exposure to counter-marketing, denormalization campaigns, taxation, and the presence of smoke-free policies. Much remains to be learned about young adult smoking initiation, particularly among young adults in the straight-to-work population. Dissimilar measures of smoking initiation limit our knowledge about smoking initiation among young adults. We recommend developing a standardized measure of initiation that indicates progression to regular established smoking.

Phase Transition for the Maki-Thompson Rumour Model on a Small-World Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agliari, Elena; Pachon, Angelica; Rodriguez, Pablo M.; Tavani, Flavia

2017-11-01

We consider the Maki-Thompson model for the stochastic propagation of a rumour within a population. In this model the population is made up of "spreaders", "ignorants" and "stiflers"; any spreader attempts to pass the rumour to the other individuals via pair-wise interactions and in case the other individual is an ignorant, it becomes a spreader, while in the other two cases the initiating spreader turns into a stifler. In a finite population the process will eventually reach an equilibrium situation where individuals are either stiflers or ignorants. We extend the original hypothesis of homogenously mixed population by allowing for a small-world network embedding the model, in such a way that interactions occur only between nearest-neighbours. This structure is realized starting from a k-regular ring and by inserting, in the average, c additional links in such a way that k and c are tuneable parameters for the population architecture. We prove that this system exhibits a transition between regimes of localization (where the final number of stiflers is at most logarithmic in the population size) and propagation (where the final number of stiflers grows algebraically with the population size) at a finite value of the network parameter c. A quantitative estimate for the critical value of c is obtained via extensive numerical simulations.

GROUP INEQUALITY

PubMed Central

Bowles, Samuel; Loury, Glenn C.; Sethi, Rajiv

2014-01-01

We explore the combined effect of segregation in social networks, peer effects, and the relative size of a historically disadvantaged group on the incentives to invest in market-rewarded skills and the dynamics of inequality between social groups. We identify conditions under which group inequality will persist in the absence of differences in ability, credit constraints, or labor market discrimination. Under these conditions, group inequality may be amplified even if initial group differences are negligible. Increases in social integration may destabilize an unequal state and make group equality possible, but the distributional and human capital effects of this depend on the demographic composition of the population. When the size of the initially disadvantaged group is sufficiently small, integration can lower the long-run costs of human capital investment in both groups and result in an increase the aggregate skill share. In contrast, when the initially disadvantaged group is large, integration can induce a fall in the aggregate skill share as the costs of human capital investment rise in both groups. We consider applications to concrete cases and policy implications. PMID:25554727

GROUP INEQUALITY.

PubMed

Bowles, Samuel; Loury, Glenn C; Sethi, Rajiv

2014-02-01

We explore the combined effect of segregation in social networks, peer effects, and the relative size of a historically disadvantaged group on the incentives to invest in market-rewarded skills and the dynamics of inequality between social groups. We identify conditions under which group inequality will persist in the absence of differences in ability, credit constraints, or labor market discrimination. Under these conditions, group inequality may be amplified even if initial group differences are negligible. Increases in social integration may destabilize an unequal state and make group equality possible, but the distributional and human capital effects of this depend on the demographic composition of the population. When the size of the initially disadvantaged group is sufficiently small, integration can lower the long-run costs of human capital investment in both groups and result in an increase the aggregate skill share. In contrast, when the initially disadvantaged group is large, integration can induce a fall in the aggregate skill share as the costs of human capital investment rise in both groups. We consider applications to concrete cases and policy implications.

Towards an initial mass function for giant planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrera, Daniel; Davies, Melvyn B.; Johansen, Anders

2018-07-01

The distribution of exoplanet masses is not primordial. After the initial stage of planet formation, gravitational interactions between planets can lead to the physical collision of two planets, or the ejection of one or more planets from the system. When this occurs, the remaining planets are typically left in more eccentric orbits. In this report we demonstrate how the present-day eccentricities of the observed exoplanet population can be used to reconstruct the initial mass function of exoplanets before the onset of dynamical instability. We developed a Bayesian framework that combines data from N-body simulations with present-day observations to compute a probability distribution for the mass of the planets that were ejected or collided in the past. Integrating across the exoplanet population, one can estimate the initial mass function of exoplanets. We find that the ejected planets are primarily sub-Saturn-type planets. While the present-day distribution appears to be bimodal, with peaks around ˜1MJ and ˜20M⊕, this bimodality does not seem to be primordial. Instead, planets around ˜60M⊕ appear to be preferentially removed by dynamical instabilities. Attempts to reproduce exoplanet populations using population synthesis codes should be mindful of the fact that the present population may have been depleted of sub-Saturn-mass planets. Future observations may reveal that young giant planets have a more continuous size distribution with lower eccentricities and more sub-Saturn-type planets. Lastly, there is a need for additional data and for more research on how the system architecture and multiplicity might alter our results.

Toward an initial mass function for giant planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrera, Daniel; Davies, Melvyn B.; Johansen, Anders

2018-05-01

The distribution of exoplanet masses is not primordial. After the initial stage of planet formation, gravitational interactions between planets can lead to the physical collision of two planets, or the ejection of one or more planets from the system. When this occurs, the remaining planets are typically left in more eccentric orbits. In this report we demonstrate how the present-day eccentricities of the observed exoplanet population can be used to reconstruct the initial mass function of exoplanets before the onset of dynamical instability. We developed a Bayesian framework that combines data from N-body simulations with present-day observations to compute a probability distribution for the mass of the planets that were ejected or collided in the past. Integrating across the exoplanet population, one can estimate the initial mass function of exoplanets. We find that the ejected planets are primarily sub-Saturn type planets. While the present-day distribution appears to be bimodal, with peaks around ˜1MJ and ˜20M⊕, this bimodality does not seem to be primordial. Instead, planets around ˜60M⊕ appear to be preferentially removed by dynamical instabilities. Attempts to reproduce exoplanet populations using population synthesis codes should be mindful of the fact that the present population may have been been depleted of sub-Saturn-mass planets. Future observations may reveal that young giant planets have a more continuous size distribution with lower eccentricities and more sub-Saturn type planets. Lastly, there is a need for additional data and for more research on how the system architecture and multiplicity might alter our results.

The rDNA Internal Transcribed Spacer Region as a Taxonomic Marker for Nematodes

PubMed Central

Powers, T. O.; Todd, T. C.; Burnell, A. M.; Murray, P. C. B.; Fleming, C. C.; Szalanski, A. L.; Adams, B. A.; Harris, T. S.

1997-01-01

The ITS region from a wide taxonomic range of nematodes, including secernentean and adenophorean taxa, and free-living, entomopathogenic, and plant-parasitic species, was evaluated as a taxonomic marker. Size of the amplified product aided in the initial determination of group membership, and also suggested groups that may require taxonomic reevaluation. Congeneric species often displayed identically sized ITS regions, but genera such as Pratylenchus and Tylenchorhynchus had species with large differences in size. ITS heterogeneity in individuals and populations was identified in several nematode taxa. PCR-RFLP of ITS1 is advocated as a method of taxonomic analysis in genera such as Helicotylenchus that contain numerous species with few diagnostic morphological characteristics. PMID:19274180

AIDS vaccines that allow HIV-1 to infect and escape immunologic control: a mathematic analysis of mass vaccination.

PubMed

van Ballegooijen, Marijn; Bogaards, Johannes A; Weverling, Gerrit-Jan; Boerlijst, Maarten C; Goudsmit, Jaap

2003-10-01

Cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL)-based HIV vaccine concepts shown to reduce viremia and postpone disease but not to prevent infection in monkeys are currently in human phase 1 trials. To evaluate the potential efficacy of vaccines that cannot prevent HIV-1 to infect and escape immunologic control, we designed a mathematic model that correlates the level of viremia to both infectiousness and disease progression. We speculate that vaccinees will have a virologic set point and disease progression rates comparable to untreated HIV-1-infected individuals with the best prognosis. Our model (illustrated with R0 = 3) shows that a sexually active population can ultimately be reduced to 26% of its initial size as a result of AIDS-related mortality in the absence of treatment or vaccination. Start of vaccination when HIV-1 prevalence is still low might postpone the peak incidence of infection and the dramatic decline in population size by up to 22 years. In conclusion, CTL-based vaccines that do not prevent HIV-1 infection but do postpone the time to onset of AIDS have considerable potential to curb the spread of HIV-1 and to postpone high AIDS-related mortality on a population level. The number of long-term survivors is substantially increased only when vaccination is initiated early in an AIDS epidemic, however.

[Approximation to the dynamics of meningococcal meningitis through dynamic systems and time series].

PubMed

Canals, M

1996-02-01

Meningococcal meningitis is subjected to epidemiological surveillance due to its severity and the occasional presentation of epidemic outbreaks. This work analyses previous disease models, generate new ones and analyses monthly cases using ARIMA time series models. The results show that disease dynamics for closed populations is epidemic and the epidemic size is related to the proportion of carriers and the transmissiveness of the agent. In open populations, disease dynamics depends on the admission rate of susceptible and the relative admission of infected individuals. Our model considers a logistic populational growth and carrier admission proportional to populational size, generating an endemic dynamics. Considering a non-instantaneous system response, a greater realism is obtained establishing that the endemic situation may present a dynamics highly sensitive to initial conditions, depending on the transmissiveness and proportion of susceptible individuals in the population. Time series model showed an adequate predictive capacity in terms no longer than 10 months. The lack of long term predictability was attributed to local changes in the proportion of carriers or on transmissiveness that lead to chaotic dynamics over a seasonal pattern. Predictions for 1995 and 1996 were obtained.

Dermal papilla cell number specifies hair size, shape and cycling and its reduction causes follicular decline

PubMed Central

Chi, Woo; Wu, Eleanor; Morgan, Bruce A.

2013-01-01

Although the hair shaft is derived from the progeny of keratinocyte stem cells in the follicular epithelium, the growth and differentiation of follicular keratinocytes is guided by a specialized mesenchymal population, the dermal papilla (DP), that is embedded in the hair bulb. Here we show that the number of DP cells in the follicle correlates with the size and shape of the hair produced in the mouse pelage. The same stem cell pool gives rise to hairs of different sizes or types in successive hair cycles, and this shift is accompanied by a corresponding change in DP cell number. Using a mouse model that allows selective ablation of DP cells in vivo, we show that DP cell number dictates the size and shape of the hair. Furthermore, we confirm the hypothesis that the DP plays a crucial role in activating stem cells to initiate the formation of a new hair shaft. When DP cell number falls below a critical threshold, hair follicles with a normal keratinocyte compartment fail to generate new hairs. However, neighbouring follicles with a few more DP cells can re-enter the growth phase, and those that do exploit an intrinsic mechanism to restore both DP cell number and normal hair growth. These results demonstrate that the mesenchymal niche directs stem and progenitor cell behaviour to initiate regeneration and specify hair morphology. Degeneration of the DP population in mice leads to the types of hair thinning and loss observed during human aging, and the results reported here suggest novel approaches to reversing hair loss. PMID:23487317

An advection-diffusion-reaction size-structured fish population dynamics model combined with a statistical parameter estimation procedure: application to the Indian ocean skipjack tuna fishery.

PubMed

Faugeras, Blaise; Maury, Olivier

2005-10-01

We develop an advection-diffusion size-structured fish population dynamics model and apply it to simulate the skipjack tuna population in the Indian Ocean. The model is fully spatialized, and movements are parameterized with oceanographical and biological data; thus it naturally reacts to environment changes. We first formulate an initial-boundary value problem and prove existence of a unique positive solution. We then discuss the numerical scheme chosen for the integration of the simulation model. In a second step we address the parameter estimation problem for such a model. With the help of automatic differentiation, we derive the adjoint code which is used to compute the exact gradient of a Bayesian cost function measuring the distance between the outputs of the model and catch and length frequency data. A sensitivity analysis shows that not all parameters can be estimated from the data. Finally twin experiments in which pertubated parameters are recovered from simulated data are successfully conducted.

Debiasing the Distant Solar System Populations Using Pan-STARRS1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lilly Schunova, Eva; Weryk, Robert J.; Chastel, Serge; Denneau, Larry; Jedicke, Robert; Wainscoat, Richard J.; Chambers, Kenneth C.

2017-10-01

We discuss our on-going effort to identify Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) in the Pan-STARRS1 dataset, and to debias the size-frequency distributions (SFD) of detected TNO sub-populations in order to estimate their true population sizes. To measure our detection efficiency we used the model of Grav et al. (2011)[1], which includes Kuiper belt Objects (KBOs), Scattered Disc Objects (SDOs), and Centaurs. Our debiasing method accounts for the per-chip CCD sensitivity as well as CCD cell gaps. The search method for finding distant Solar System objects, which was developed for our initial work (Weryk et al., 2016)[2], led to discovery of 29 Centaurs, 243 KBOs and 61 SDOs from Pan-STARRS data spanning years 2010-2015. Our work is extended using more recent PS1 data.[1] Grav, T., et al. (2011), Publications of the Astronomical Society of Pacific, Volume 123, Issue 902, pp. 423.[2] Weryk, R.J., et al. (2016), eprint arXiv:1607.04895.

Extensive variation, but not local adaptation in an Australian alpine daisy.

PubMed

Hirst, Megan J; Sexton, Jason P; Hoffmann, Ary A

2016-08-01

Alpine plants often occupy diverse habitats within a similar elevation range, but most research on local adaptation in these plants has focused on elevation gradients. In testing for habitat-related local adaptation, local effects on seed quality and initial plant growth should be considered in designs that encompass multiple populations and habitats. We tested for local adaptation across alpine habitats in a morphologically variable daisy species, Brachyscome decipiens, in the Bogong High Plains in Victoria, Australia. We collected seed from different habitats, controlled for maternal effects through initial seed size estimates, and characterized seedling survival and growth in a field transplant experiment. We found little evidence for local adaptation for survival or plant size, based on three adaptation measures: Home versus Away, Local versus Foreign, and Sympatric versus Allopatric (SA). The SA measure controlled for planting site and population (site-of-origin) effects. There were significant differences due to site-of-origin and planting site effects. An important confounding factor was the size of plants directly after transplantation of seedlings, which had a large impact on subsequent seedling survival and growth. Initial differences in plant width and height influenced subsequent survival across the growing season but in opposing directions: wide plants had higher survival, but tall plants had lower survival. In an additional controlled garden experiment at Cranbourne Royal Botanic Gardens, site-of-origin effects detected in the field experiments disappeared under more benign homogeneous conditions. Although B. decipiens from different source areas varied significantly when grown across a range of alpine habitats, these differences did not translate into a local or habitat-related fitness advantage. This lack of local advantage may signal weak past selection, and/or weak adaptive transgeneration (plasticity) effects.

A diffusion approach to approximating preservation probabilities for gene duplicates.

PubMed

O'Hely, Martin

2006-08-01

Consider a haploid population and, within its genome, a gene whose presence is vital for the survival of any individual. Each copy of this gene is subject to mutations which destroy its function. Suppose one member of the population somehow acquires a duplicate copy of the gene, where the duplicate is fully linked to the original gene's locus. Preservation is said to occur if eventually the entire population consists of individuals descended from this one which initially carried the duplicate. The system is modelled by a finite state-space Markov process which in turn is approximated by a diffusion process, whence an explicit expression for the probability of preservation is derived. The event of preservation can be compared to the fixation of a selectively neutral gene variant initially present in a single individual, the probability of which is the reciprocal of the population size. For very weak mutation, this and the probability of preservation are equal, while as mutation becomes stronger, the preservation probability tends to double this reciprocal. This is in excellent agreement with simulation studies.

Partitioning of pyroclasts between ballistic transport and a convective plume: Kīlauea volcano, 19 March 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houghton, B. F.; Swanson, D. A.; Biass, S.; Fagents, S. A.; Orr, T. R.

2017-05-01

We describe the discrete ballistic and wind-advected products of a small, but exceptionally well-characterized, explosive eruption of wall-rock-derived pyroclasts from Kīlauea volcano on 19 March 2008 and, for the first time, integrate the size distribution of the two subpopulations to reconstruct the true size distribution of a population of pyroclasts as it exited from the vent. Based on thinning and fining relationships, the wind-advected fraction had a mass of 6.1 × 105 kg and a thickness half distance of 110 m, placing it at the bottom end of the magnitude and intensity spectra of pyroclastic falls. The ballistic population was mapped, in the field and by using structure-from-motion techniques, to a diameter of > 10-20 cm over an area of 0.1 km2, with an estimated mass of 1 × 105 kg. Initial ejection velocities of 50-80 m/s were estimated from inversion of isopleths. The total grain size distribution was estimated by using a mass partitioning of 98% of wind-advected material and 2% of ballistics, resulting in median and sorting values of -1.7ϕ and 3.1ϕ. It is markedly broader than those calculated for the products of magmatic explosive eruptions, because the grain size of 19 March 2008 clast population is unrelated to a volcanic fragmentation event and instead was "inherited" from a population of talus clasts that temporary blocked the vent prior to the eruption. Despite a conspicuous near-field presence, the ballistic subpopulation has only a minor influence on the grain size distribution because of its rapid thinning and fining away from source.

Holocene population history of the Sabana de Bogotá region, Northern South America: An assessment of the craniofacial shape variation.

PubMed

Delgado, Miguel

2017-02-01

Several authors using multiple and independent lines of evidence investigating the biocultural continuity versus discontinuity in the Sabana de Bogotá region, in the eastern highlands of Colombia, have arrived at contradictory conclusions supporting either scenarios. This study analyzes the craniofacial size and shape variation of diachronic samples from the study region to test distinct population history scenarios that support continuity or, alternatively, divergence. A total of 92 adult skulls belonging to five chronological groups, ranging from c. 10,100 to 350 14 C YBP, were analyzed through Procrustean geometric morphometric techniques. Matrix correlation analysis, multivariate exploratory (PCA, FDA), and evolutionary quantitative genetic methods (R-matrix analysis and β-test) were used to study the diachronic craniofacial shape variation. A model that supports strong evolutionary diversification over the Holocene better explains the patterns of morphological variation observed. At least two periods of significant craniofacial size and shape change were detected: one during the middle to initial late Holocene transition (c. 4,000-3,200 14 C YBP) and other toward the final late Holocene (post-2,000 14 C YBP), which exhibit differences in the pattern and magnitude of cranial divergence. In addition, the differentiation viewed between early and mid-Holocene foragers could mark the initial entry of non-local populations into the region toward the beginnings of the middle Holocene. Distinct to previous investigations the present study supports a more complex regional population history where multiple population contractions/extinctions, dispersals and assimilations along with dietary adaptations took place during the last 10,000 years. These results are in agreement with the archaeological and paleoecological record which suggests marked periods of change rather than temporal stability. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

And the Last Shall Be First: Heterochrony and Compensatory Marine Growth in Sea Trout (Salmo trutta)

PubMed Central

Marco-Rius, Francisco; Caballero, Pablo; Morán, Paloma; Garcia de Leaniz, Carlos

2012-01-01

Early juvenile growth is a good indicator of growth later in life in many species because larger than average juveniles tend to have a competitive advantage. However, for migratory species the relationship between juvenile and adult growth remains obscure. We used scale analysis to reconstruct growth trajectories of migratory sea trout (Salmo trutta) from six neighbouring populations, and compared the size individuals attained in freshwater (before migration) with their subsequent growth at sea (after migration). We also calculated the coefficient of variation (CV) to examine how much body size varied across populations and life stages. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that the CV on body size would differ between freshwater and marine environment, perhaps reflecting different trade-offs during ontogeny. Neighbouring sea trout populations differed significantly in time spent at sea and in age-adjusted size of returning adults, but not on size of seaward migration, which was surprisingly uniform and may be indicative of strong selection pressures. The CV on body size decreased significantly over time and was highest during the first 8 months of life (when juvenile mortality is highest) and lowest during the marine phase. Size attained in freshwater was negatively related to growth during the first marine growing season, suggesting the existence of compensatory growth, whereby individuals that grow poorly in freshwater are able to catch up later at sea. Analysis of 61 datasets indicates that negative or no associations between pre- and post-migratory growth are common amongst migratory salmonids. We suggest that despite a widespread selective advantage of large body size in freshwater, freshwater growth is a poor predictor of final body size amongst migratory fish because selection may favour growth heterochrony during transitions to a novel environment, and marine compensatory growth may negate any initial size advantage acquired in freshwater. PMID:23049680

In search of genetic constraints limiting the evolution of egg size: direct and correlated responses to artificial selection on a prenatal maternal effector.

PubMed

Pick, J L; Hutter, P; Tschirren, B

2016-06-01

Maternal effects are an important force in nature, but the evolutionary dynamics of the traits that cause them are not well understood. Egg size is known to be a key mediator of prenatal maternal effects with an established genetic basis. In contrast to theoretical expectations for fitness-related traits, there is a large amount of additive genetic variation in egg size observed in natural populations. One possible mechanism for the maintenance of this variation is through genetic constraints caused by a shared genetic basis among traits. Here we created replicated, divergent selection lines for maternal egg investment in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) to quantify the role of genetic constraints in the evolution of egg size. We found that egg size responds rapidly to selection, accompanied by a strong response in all egg components. Initially, we observed a correlated response in body size, but this response declined over time, showing that egg size and body size can evolve independently. Furthermore, no correlated response in fecundity (measured as the proportion of days on which a female laid an egg) was observed. However, the response to selection was asymmetrical, with egg size plateauing after one generation of selection in the high but not the low investment lines. We attribute this pattern to the presence of genetic asymmetries, caused by directional dominance or unequal allele frequencies. Such asymmetries may contribute to the evolutionary stasis in egg size observed in natural populations, despite a positive association between egg size and fitness.

In search of genetic constraints limiting the evolution of egg size: direct and correlated responses to artificial selection on a prenatal maternal effector

PubMed Central

Pick, J L; Hutter, P; Tschirren, B

2016-01-01

Maternal effects are an important force in nature, but the evolutionary dynamics of the traits that cause them are not well understood. Egg size is known to be a key mediator of prenatal maternal effects with an established genetic basis. In contrast to theoretical expectations for fitness-related traits, there is a large amount of additive genetic variation in egg size observed in natural populations. One possible mechanism for the maintenance of this variation is through genetic constraints caused by a shared genetic basis among traits. Here we created replicated, divergent selection lines for maternal egg investment in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) to quantify the role of genetic constraints in the evolution of egg size. We found that egg size responds rapidly to selection, accompanied by a strong response in all egg components. Initially, we observed a correlated response in body size, but this response declined over time, showing that egg size and body size can evolve independently. Furthermore, no correlated response in fecundity (measured as the proportion of days on which a female laid an egg) was observed. However, the response to selection was asymmetrical, with egg size plateauing after one generation of selection in the high but not the low investment lines. We attribute this pattern to the presence of genetic asymmetries, caused by directional dominance or unequal allele frequencies. Such asymmetries may contribute to the evolutionary stasis in egg size observed in natural populations, despite a positive association between egg size and fitness. PMID:26956564

Valuing the chances of survival of two distinct Eurasian lynx populations in Poland - do people want to keep the doors open?

PubMed

Bartczak, Anna; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

2013-11-15

This study investigates individuals' preferences toward protection programs aimed at increasing the chances of survival of the two distinct Eurasian lynx populations in Poland. Those two groups, the Lowland and the Carpathian population, are exposed to different risks of extinction as they have different numbers, different-sized areas of occupation and different migration possibilities. Using a discrete choice experiment we examine the influence of the initial degree of endangerment on the allocation of respondents' funds. The results show that people prefer to invest in the conservation of the lynx population, which has initially lower chances of survival. The main driver of respondents' choices seems to be loss aversion rather than the urge to invest in an option with an expected higher outcome. This observation can be interpreted as people trying to keep all the options - doors - open by devoting more funds to the more vulnerable population than to the more stable one. Employing a scale-extended latent class model allowed us to detect segments among individuals showing different types of response behavior, including a form of serial non-participation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations.

PubMed

Peel, A J; Pulliam, J R C; Luis, A D; Plowright, R K; O'Shea, T J; Hayman, D T S; Wood, J L N; Webb, C T; Restif, O

2014-07-07

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations

PubMed Central

Peel, A. J.; Pulliam, J. R. C.; Luis, A. D.; Plowright, R. K.; O'Shea, T. J.; Hayman, D. T. S.; Wood, J. L. N.; Webb, C. T.; Restif, O.

2014-01-01

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction. PMID:24827436

The eco-evolutionary responses of a generalist consumer to resource competition.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2012-10-01

This article explores the combined evolutionary and ecological responses of resource uptake abilities in a generalist consumer to exploitative competition for one resource using a simple 2-resource model. It compares the sizes of ecologically and evolutionarily caused changes in population densities in cases where the original consumer has a strong or a weak trade-off in its abilities to consume the two resources. The analysis also compares the responses of the original species to competition when the competitor's population size is or is not limited by the shared resource. Although divergence in resource use traits in the resident generalist consumer is expected under all scenarios when resources are substitutable, the changes in population densities of the resources and resident consumer frequently differ between scenarios. The population of the original consumer often decreases as a result of its own adaptive divergence, and this decrease is often much greater than the initial ecological decrease. If the evolving consumer has a strong trade-off, the overlapped resource increases in equilibrium population density in response to being consumed by a generalist competitor. Some of these predictions differ qualitatively in alternative scenarios involving sustained variation in population densities or nutritionally essential resources. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Modelling size-dependent cannibalism in barramundi Lates calcarifer: cannibalistic polyphenism and its implication to aquaculture.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Flavio F; Qin, Jian G

2013-01-01

This study quantified size-dependent cannibalism in barramundi Lates calcarifer through coupling a range of prey-predator pairs in a different range of fish sizes. Predictive models were developed using morphological traits with the alterative assumption of cannibalistic polyphenism. Predictive models were validated with the data from trials where cannibals were challenged with progressing increments of prey sizes. The experimental observations showed that cannibals of 25-131 mm total length could ingest the conspecific prey of 78-72% cannibal length. In the validation test, all predictive models underestimate the maximum ingestible prey size for cannibals of a similar size range. However, the model based on the maximal mouth width at opening closely matched the empirical observations, suggesting a certain degree of phenotypic plasticity of mouth size among cannibalistic individuals. Mouth size showed allometric growth comparing with body depth, resulting in a decreasing trend on the maximum size of ingestible prey as cannibals grow larger, which in parts explains why cannibalism in barramundi is frequently observed in the early developmental stage. Any barramundi has the potential to become a cannibal when the initial prey size was <50% of the cannibal body length, but fish could never become a cannibal when prey were >58% of their size, suggesting that 50% of size difference can be the threshold to initiate intracohort cannibalism in a barramundi population. Cannibalistic polyphenism was likely to occur in barramundi that had a cannibalistic history. An experienced cannibal would have a greater ability to stretch its mouth size to capture a much larger prey than the models predict. The awareness of cannibalistic polyphenism has important application in fish farming management to reduce cannibalism.

Modelling Size-Dependent Cannibalism in Barramundi Lates calcarifer: Cannibalistic Polyphenism and Its Implication to Aquaculture

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Flavio F.; Qin, Jian G.

2013-01-01

This study quantified size-dependent cannibalism in barramundi Lates calcarifer through coupling a range of prey-predator pairs in a different range of fish sizes. Predictive models were developed using morphological traits with the alterative assumption of cannibalistic polyphenism. Predictive models were validated with the data from trials where cannibals were challenged with progressing increments of prey sizes. The experimental observations showed that cannibals of 25–131 mm total length could ingest the conspecific prey of 78–72% cannibal length. In the validation test, all predictive models underestimate the maximum ingestible prey size for cannibals of a similar size range. However, the model based on the maximal mouth width at opening closely matched the empirical observations, suggesting a certain degree of phenotypic plasticity of mouth size among cannibalistic individuals. Mouth size showed allometric growth comparing with body depth, resulting in a decreasing trend on the maximum size of ingestible prey as cannibals grow larger, which in parts explains why cannibalism in barramundi is frequently observed in the early developmental stage. Any barramundi has the potential to become a cannibal when the initial prey size was <50% of the cannibal body length, but fish could never become a cannibal when prey were >58% of their size, suggesting that 50% of size difference can be the threshold to initiate intracohort cannibalism in a barramundi population. Cannibalistic polyphenism was likely to occur in barramundi that had a cannibalistic history. An experienced cannibal would have a greater ability to stretch its mouth size to capture a much larger prey than the models predict. The awareness of cannibalistic polyphenism has important application in fish farming management to reduce cannibalism. PMID:24349295

Genetic Divergence Disclosing a Rapid Prehistorical Dispersion of Native Americans in Central and South America

PubMed Central

He, Yungang; Wang, Wei R.; Li, Ran; Wang, Sijia; Jin, Li

2012-01-01

An accurate estimate of the divergence time between Native Americans is important for understanding the initial entry and early dispersion of human beings in the New World. Current methods for estimating the genetic divergence time of populations could seriously depart from a linear relationship with the true divergence for multiple populations of a different population size and significant population expansion. Here, to address this problem, we propose a novel measure to estimate the genetic divergence time of populations. Computer simulation revealed that the new measure maintained an excellent linear correlation with the population divergence time in complicated multi-population scenarios with population expansion. Utilizing the new measure and microsatellite data of 21 Native American populations, we investigated the genetic divergences of the Native American populations. The results indicated that genetic divergences between North American populations are greater than that between Central and South American populations. None of the divergences, however, were large enough to constitute convincing evidence supporting the two-wave or multi-wave migration model for the initial entry of human beings into America. The genetic affinity of the Native American populations was further explored using Neighbor-Net and the genetic divergences suggested that these populations could be categorized into four genetic groups living in four different ecologic zones. The divergence of the population groups suggests that the early dispersion of human beings in America was a multi-step procedure. Further, the divergences suggest the rapid dispersion of Native Americans in Central and South Americas after a long standstill period in North America. PMID:22970308

Spatial distribution of limited resources and local density regulation in juvenile Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Finstad, Anders G; Einum, Sigurd; Ugedal, Ola; Forseth, Torbjørn

2009-01-01

1. Spatial heterogeneity of resources may influence competition among individuals and thus have a fundamental role in shaping population dynamics and carrying capacity. In the present study, we identify shelter opportunities as a limiting resource for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). Experimental and field studies are combined in order to demonstrate how the spatial distribution of shelters may influence population dynamics on both within and among population scales. 2. In closed experimental streams, fish performance scaled negatively with decreasing shelter availability and increasing densities. In contrast, the fish in open stream channels dispersed according to shelter availability and performance of fish remaining in the streams did not depend on initial density or shelters. 3. The field study confirmed that spatial variation in densities of 1-year-old juveniles was governed both by initial recruit density and shelter availability. Strength of density-dependent population regulation, measured as carrying capacity, increased with decreasing number of shelters. 4. Nine rivers were surveyed for spatial variation in shelter availability and increased shelter heterogeneity tended to decrease maximum observed population size (measured using catch statistics of adult salmon as a proxy). 5. Our studies highlight the importance of small-scale within-population spatial structure in population dynamics and demonstrate that not only the absolute amount of limiting resources but also their spatial arrangement can be an important factor influencing population carrying capacity.

Simulation modeling of population viability for the leopard darter (Percidae: Percina pantherina)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, L.R.; Echelle, A.A.; Toepfer, C.S.; Williams, M.G.; Fisher, W.L.

1999-01-01

We used the computer program RAMAS to perform a population viability analysis for the leopard darter, Percina pantherina. This percid fish is a threatened species confined to five isolated rivers in the Ouachita Mountains of Oklahoma and Arkansas. A base model created from life history data indicated a 6% probability that the leopard darter would go extinct in 50 years. We performed sensitivity analyses to determine the effects of initial population size, variation in age structure, variation in severity and probability of catastrophe, and migration rate. Catastrophe (modeled as the probability and severity of drought) and migration had the greatest effects on persistence. Results of these simulations have implications for management of this species.

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

PubMed

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

PubMed Central

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

Both size-frequency distribution and sub-populations of the main-belt asteroid population are consistent with YORP-induced rotational fission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, S.; Scheeres, D.; Rossi, A.; Marzari, F.; Davis, D.

2014-07-01

From the results of a comprehensive asteroid-population-evolution model, we conclude that the YORP-induced rotational-fission hypothesis has strong repercussions for the small size end of the main-belt asteroid size-frequency distribution and is consistent with observed asteroid-population statistics and with the observed sub-populations of binary asteroids, asteroid pairs and contact binaries. The foundation of this model is the asteroid-rotation model of Marzari et al. (2011) and Rossi et al. (2009), which incorporates both the YORP effect and collisional evolution. This work adds to that model the rotational fission hypothesis (i.e. when the rotation rate exceeds a critical value, erosion and binary formation occur; Scheeres 2007) and binary-asteroid evolution (Jacobson & Scheeres, 2011). The YORP-effect timescale for large asteroids with diameters D > ˜ 6 km is longer than the collision timescale in the main belt, thus the frequency of large asteroids is determined by a collisional equilibrium (e.g. Bottke 2005), but for small asteroids with diameters D < ˜ 6 km, the asteroid-population evolution model confirms that YORP-induced rotational fission destroys small asteroids more frequently than collisions. Therefore, the frequency of these small asteroids is determined by an equilibrium between the creation of new asteroids out of the impact debris of larger asteroids and the destruction of these asteroids by YORP-induced rotational fission. By introducing a new source of destruction that varies strongly with size, YORP-induced rotational fission alters the slope of the size-frequency distribution. Using the outputs of the asteroid-population evolution model and a 1-D collision evolution model, we can generate this new size-frequency distribution and it matches the change in slope observed by the SKADS survey (Gladman 2009). This agreement is achieved with both an accretional power-law or a truncated ''Asteroids were Born Big'' size-frequency distribution (Weidenschilling 2010, Morbidelli 2009). The binary-asteroid evolution model is highly constrained by the modeling done in Jacobson & Scheeres, and therefore the asteroid-population evolution model has only two significant free parameters: the ratio of low-to-high-mass-ratio binaries formed after rotational fission events and the mean strength of the binary YORP (BYORP) effect. Using this model, we successfully reproduce the observed small-asteroid sub-populations, which orthogonally constrain the two free parameters. We find the outcome of rotational fission most likely produces an initial mass-ratio fraction that is four to eight times as likely to produce high-mass-ratio systems as low-mass-ratio systems, which is consistent with rotational fission creating binary systems in a flat distribution with respect to mass ratio. We also find that the mean of the log-normal BYORP coefficient distribution B ≈ 10^{-2}.

Decline in top predator body size and changing climate alter trophic structure in an oceanic ecosystem.

PubMed

Shackell, Nancy L; Frank, Kenneth T; Fisher, Jonathan A D; Petrie, Brian; Leggett, William C

2010-05-07

Globally, overfishing large-bodied groundfish populations has resulted in substantial increases in their prey populations. Where it has been examined, the effects of overfishing have cascaded down the food chain. In an intensively fished area on the western Scotian Shelf, Northwest Atlantic, the biomass of prey species increased exponentially (doubling time of 11 years) even though the aggregate biomass of their predators remained stable over 38 years. Concomitant reductions in herbivorous zooplankton and increases in phytoplankton were also evident. This anomalous trophic pattern led us to examine how declines in predator body size (approx. 60% in body mass since the early 1970s) and climatic regime influenced lower trophic levels. The increase in prey biomass was associated primarily with declines in predator body size and secondarily to an increase in stratification. Sea surface temperature and predator biomass had no influence. A regression model explained 65 per cent of prey biomass variability. Trait-mediated effects, namely a reduction in predator size, resulted in a weakening of top predation pressure. Increased stratification may have enhanced growing conditions for prey fish. Size-selective harvesting under changing climatic conditions initiated a trophic restructuring of the food chain, the effects of which may have influenced three trophic levels.

Probability of fixation under weak selection: a branching process unifying approach.

PubMed

Lambert, Amaury

2006-06-01

We link two-allele population models by Haldane and Fisher with Kimura's diffusion approximations of the Wright-Fisher model, by considering continuous-state branching (CB) processes which are either independent (model I) or conditioned to have constant sum (model II). Recent works by the author allow us to further include logistic density-dependence (model III), which is ubiquitous in ecology. In all models, each allele (mutant or resident) is then characterized by a triple demographic trait: intrinsic growth rate r, reproduction variance sigma and competition sensitivity c. Generally, the fixation probability u of the mutant depends on its initial proportion p, the total initial population size z, and the six demographic traits. Under weak selection, we can linearize u in all models thanks to the same master formula u = p + p(1 - p)[g(r)s(r) + g(sigma)s(sigma) + g(c)s(c)] + o(s(r),s(sigma),s(c), where s(r) = r' - r, s(sigma) = sigma-sigma' and s(c) = c - c' are selection coefficients, and g(r), g(sigma), g(c) are invasibility coefficients (' refers to the mutant traits), which are positive and do not depend on p. In particular, increased reproduction variance is always deleterious. We prove that in all three models g(sigma) = 1/sigma and g(r) = z/sigma for small initial population sizes z. In model II, g(r) = z/sigma for all z, and we display invasion isoclines of the 'mean vs variance' type. A slight departure from the isocline is shown to be more beneficial to alleles with low sigma than with high r. In model III, g(c) increases with z like ln(z)/c, and g(r)(z) converges to a finite limit L > K/sigma, where K = r/c is the carrying capacity. For r > 0 the growth invasibility is above z/sigma when z < K, and below z/sigma when z > K, showing that classical models I and II underestimate the fixation probabilities in growing populations, and overestimate them in declining populations.

Patterns of Genetic Coding Variation in a Native American Population before and after European Contact.

PubMed

Lindo, John; Rogers, Mary; Mallott, Elizabeth K; Petzelt, Barbara; Mitchell, Joycelynn; Archer, David; Cybulski, Jerome S; Malhi, Ripan S; DeGiorgio, Michael

2018-05-03

The effects of European colonization on the genomes of Native Americans may have produced excesses of potentially deleterious features, mainly due to the severe reductions in population size and corresponding losses of genetic diversity. This assumption, however, neither considers actual genomic patterns that existed before colonization nor does it adequately capture the effects of admixture. In this study, we analyze the whole-exome sequences of modern and ancient individuals from a Northwest Coast First Nation, with a demographic history similar to other indigenous populations from the Americas. We show that in approximately ten generations from initial European contact, the modern individuals exhibit reduced levels of novel and low-frequency variants, a lower proportion of potentially deleterious alleles, and decreased heterozygosity when compared to their ancestors. This pattern can be explained by a dramatic population decline, resulting in the loss of potentially damaging low-frequency variants, and subsequent admixture. We also find evidence that the indigenous population was on a steady decline in effective population size for several thousand years before contact, which emphasizes regional demography over the common conception of a uniform expansion after entry into the Americas. This study examines the genomic consequences of colonialism on an indigenous group and describes the continuing role of gene flow among modern populations. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mutation load and the extinction of large populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, A. T.

1996-02-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population that, after sufficient time, would reduce population size and so lead to extinction. This joint action of mutation load and population reduction is called Mutational Meltdown and is usually considered only to occur in small asexual or very small sexual populations. However, the problem of extinction cannot be discussed in a proper way if one previously assumes the existence of an equilibrium state, as initially discussed in this paper. By performing simulations in a genetically inspired model for time-changing populations, we show that mutational meltdown also occurs in large asexual populations and that the mean time to extinction is a nonmonotonic function of the selection coefficient. The stochasticity of the extinction process is also discussed. The extinction of small sexual N ∼ 700 populations is shown and our results confirm the assumption that the existence of recombination might be a powerful mechanism to avoid extinction.

Modeling the impact of the indigenous microbial population on the maximum population density of Salmonella on alfalfa.

PubMed

Rijgersberg, Hajo; Franz, Eelco; Nierop Groot, Masja; Tromp, Seth-Oscar

2013-07-01

Within a microbial risk assessment framework, modeling the maximum population density (MPD) of a pathogenic microorganism is important but often not considered. This paper describes a model predicting the MPD of Salmonella on alfalfa as a function of the initial contamination level, the total count of the indigenous microbial population, the maximum pathogen growth rate and the maximum population density of the indigenous microbial population. The model is parameterized by experimental data describing growth of Salmonella on sprouting alfalfa seeds at inoculum size, native microbial load and Pseudomonas fluorescens 2-79. The obtained model fits well to the experimental data, with standard errors less than ten percent of the fitted average values. The results show that the MPD of Salmonella is not only dictated by performance characteristics of Salmonella but depends on the characteristics of the indigenous microbial population like total number of cells and its growth rate. The model can improve the predictions of microbiological growth in quantitative microbial risk assessments. Using this model, the effects of preventive measures to reduce pathogenic load and a concurrent effect on the background population can be better evaluated. If competing microorganisms are more sensitive to a particular decontamination method, a pathogenic microorganism may grow faster and reach a higher level. More knowledge regarding the effect of the indigenous microbial population (size, diversity, composition) of food products on pathogen dynamics is needed in order to make adequate predictions of pathogen dynamics on various food products.

Temperature-dependent elimination efficiency on Phaeocystis globosa by different initial population sizes of rotifer Brachionus plicatilis.

PubMed

Sun, Yunfei; Wang, Yuanyuan; Lei, Jin; Qian, Chenchen; Zhu, Xuexia; Akbar, Siddiq; Huang, Yuan; Yang, Zhou

2018-07-01

Due to sea water eutrophication and global warming, the harmful Phaeocystis blooms outbreak frequently in coastal waters, which cause a serious threat to marine ecosystem. The application of rotifer to control the harmful alga is a promising way. To investigate the influence of initial rotifer density and temperature on the ability of rotifer Brachionus plicatilis to eliminate Phaeocystis globosa population, we cultured P. globosa with different initial rotifer densities (1, 3, 5 inds mL -1 ) at 19, 22, 25, 28, and 31 °C for 9-16 d. Results showed that the population of rotifer feeding on Phaeocystis increased rapidly and higher temperatures favored the growth of P. globosa and B. plicatilis. With increased initial rotifer density and temperature, both the clearance rate of rotifer and the reduction rate of P. globosa increased, and thus P. globosa were eliminated earlier. Both temperature and initial rotifer density had significant effects on clearance rate of rotifer and the time to Phaeocystis extinction, and there was a significant interaction between the two factors on the two parameters, i.e., the effect of initial rotifer density on eliminating Phaeocystis decreased with increasing temperature. The rotifer in 5 inds mL -1 at 28 °C eliminated P. globosa in 4 d, whereas the rotifer in 1 ind mL -1 at 19 °C spent about 16 d on eliminating P. globosa. In conclusion, higher temperature and bigger initial rotifer density promote rotifer to eliminate the harmful P. globosa, and the optimal temperature for rotifer to clear P. globosa is 28 °C. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wisconsin street tree assessment, 2002-2003

Treesearch

Anne Buckelew Cumming; Daniel B. Twardus; Robert Hoehn; David J. Nowak; Manfred Mielke; Richard Rideout; Helen Butalla; Patricia Lebow

2008-01-01

A pilot study to assess the structure, function, and health of Wisconsin’s street trees was initiated in 2002. Almost 900 plots were established in Wisconsin’s urban areas. Table 1 provides an overview of plot-level data, population estimates, and a calculated monetary value for Wisconsin’s street trees. Wisconsin has mid-sized street trees, dominated by Norway maple (...

Caution regarding the choice of standard deviations to guide sample size calculations in clinical trials.

PubMed

Chen, Henian; Zhang, Nanhua; Lu, Xiaosun; Chen, Sophie

2013-08-01

The method used to determine choice of standard deviation (SD) is inadequately reported in clinical trials. Underestimations of the population SD may result in underpowered clinical trials. This study demonstrates how using the wrong method to determine population SD can lead to inaccurate sample sizes and underpowered studies, and offers recommendations to maximize the likelihood of achieving adequate statistical power. We review the practice of reporting sample size and its effect on the power of trials published in major journals. Simulated clinical trials were used to compare the effects of different methods of determining SD on power and sample size calculations. Prior to 1996, sample size calculations were reported in just 1%-42% of clinical trials. This proportion increased from 38% to 54% after the initial Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) was published in 1996, and from 64% to 95% after the revised CONSORT was published in 2001. Nevertheless, underpowered clinical trials are still common. Our simulated data showed that all minimal and 25th-percentile SDs fell below 44 (the population SD), regardless of sample size (from 5 to 50). For sample sizes 5 and 50, the minimum sample SDs underestimated the population SD by 90.7% and 29.3%, respectively. If only one sample was available, there was less than 50% chance that the actual power equaled or exceeded the planned power of 80% for detecting a median effect size (Cohen's d = 0.5) when using the sample SD to calculate the sample size. The proportions of studies with actual power of at least 80% were about 95%, 90%, 85%, and 80% when we used the larger SD, 80% upper confidence limit (UCL) of SD, 70% UCL of SD, and 60% UCL of SD to calculate the sample size, respectively. When more than one sample was available, the weighted average SD resulted in about 50% of trials being underpowered; the proportion of trials with power of 80% increased from 90% to 100% when the 75th percentile and the maximum SD from 10 samples were used. Greater sample size is needed to achieve a higher proportion of studies having actual power of 80%. This study only addressed sample size calculation for continuous outcome variables. We recommend using the 60% UCL of SD, maximum SD, 80th-percentile SD, and 75th-percentile SD to calculate sample size when 1 or 2 samples, 3 samples, 4-5 samples, and more than 5 samples of data are available, respectively. Using the sample SD or average SD to calculate sample size should be avoided.

Numerical Investigation of Vertical Plunging Jet Using a Hybrid Multifluid–VOF Multiphase CFD Solver

DOE PAGES

Shonibare, Olabanji Y.; Wardle, Kent E.

2015-06-28

A novel hybrid multiphase flow solver has been used to conduct simulations of a vertical plunging liquid jet. This solver combines a multifluid methodology with selective interface sharpening to enable simulation of both the initial jet impingement and the long-time entrained bubble plume phenomena. Models are implemented for variable bubble size capturing and dynamic switching of interface sharpened regions to capture transitions between the initially fully segregated flow types into the dispersed bubbly flow regime. It was found that the solver was able to capture the salient features of the flow phenomena under study and areas for quantitative improvement havemore » been explored and identified. In particular, a population balance approach is employed and detailed calibration of the underlying models with experimental data is required to enable quantitative prediction of bubble size and distribution to capture the transition between segregated and dispersed flow types with greater fidelity.« less

Match or mismatch: the influence of phenology on size-dependent life history and divergence in population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherding, Jost; Beeck, Peter; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Scharf, Werner R.

2010-01-01

Summary 1. In gape-limited predators, body size asymmetries determine the outcome of predator-prey interactions. Due to ontogenetic changes in body size, the intensity of intra- and interspecific interactions may change rapidly between the match situation of a predator-prey system and the mismatch situation in which competition, including competition with the prey, dominates. 2. Based on a physiologically structured population model using the European perch (Perca fluviatilis), analysis was performed on how prey density (bream, Abramis brama), initial size differences in the young-of-the-year (YOY) age cohort of the predator, and phenology (time-gap in hatching of predator and prey) influence the size structure of the predator cohort. 3. In relation to the seasonality of reproduction, the match situation of the predator-prey system occurred when perch hatched earlier than bream and when no gape-size limitations existed, leading to decreased size divergence in the predator age cohort. Decreased size divergence was also found when bream hatched much earlier than perch, preventing perch predation on bream occurring, which, in turn, increased the competitive interaction of the perch with bream for the common prey, zooplankton; i.e. the mismatch situation in which also the mean size of the age cohort of the predator decreased. 4. In between the total match and the mismatch, however, only the largest individuals of the perch age cohort were able to prey on the bream, while smaller conspecifics got trapped in competition with each other and with bream for zooplankton, leading to enlarged differences in growth that increased size divergence. 5. The modelling results were combined with 7 years of field data in a lake, where large differences in the length-frequency distribution of YOY perch were observed after their first summer. These field data corroborate that phenology and prey density per predator are important mechanisms in determining size differences within the YOY age cohort of the predator. 6. The results demonstrate that the switch between competitive interactions and a predator-prey relationship depended on phenology. This resulted in pronounced size differences in the YOY age cohort, which had far-reaching consequences for the entire predator population.

Estimating sample size for landscape-scale mark-recapture studies of North American migratory tree bats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellison, Laura E.; Lukacs, Paul M.

2014-01-01

Concern for migratory tree-roosting bats in North America has grown because of possible population declines from wind energy development. This concern has driven interest in estimating population-level changes. Mark-recapture methodology is one possible analytical framework for assessing bat population changes, but sample size requirements to produce reliable estimates have not been estimated. To illustrate the sample sizes necessary for a mark-recapture-based monitoring program we conducted power analyses using a statistical model that allows reencounters of live and dead marked individuals. We ran 1,000 simulations for each of five broad sample size categories in a Burnham joint model, and then compared the proportion of simulations in which 95% confidence intervals overlapped between and among years for a 4-year study. Additionally, we conducted sensitivity analyses of sample size to various capture probabilities and recovery probabilities. More than 50,000 individuals per year would need to be captured and released to accurately determine 10% and 15% declines in annual survival. To detect more dramatic declines of 33% or 50% survival over four years, then sample sizes of 25,000 or 10,000 per year, respectively, would be sufficient. Sensitivity analyses reveal that increasing recovery of dead marked individuals may be more valuable than increasing capture probability of marked individuals. Because of the extraordinary effort that would be required, we advise caution should such a mark-recapture effort be initiated because of the difficulty in attaining reliable estimates. We make recommendations for what techniques show the most promise for mark-recapture studies of bats because some techniques violate the assumptions of mark-recapture methodology when used to mark bats.

Analyzing hidden populations online: topic, emotion, and social network of HIV-related users in the largest Chinese online community.

PubMed

Liu, Chuchu; Lu, Xin

2018-01-05

Traditional survey methods are limited in the study of hidden populations due to the hard to access properties, including lack of a sampling frame, sensitivity issue, reporting error, small sample size, etc. The rapid increase of online communities, of which members interact with others via the Internet, have generated large amounts of data, offering new opportunities for understanding hidden populations with unprecedented sample sizes and richness of information. In this study, we try to understand the multidimensional characteristics of a hidden population by analyzing the massive data generated in the online community. By elaborately designing crawlers, we retrieved a complete dataset from the "HIV bar," the largest bar related to HIV on the Baidu Tieba platform, for all records from January 2005 to August 2016. Through natural language processing and social network analysis, we explored the psychology, behavior and demand of online HIV population and examined the network community structure. In HIV communities, the average topic similarity among members is positively correlated to network efficiency (r = 0.70, p < 0.001), indicating that the closer the social distance between members of the community, the more similar their topics. The proportion of negative users in each community is around 60%, weakly correlated with community size (r = 0.25, p = 0.002). It is found that users suspecting initial HIV infection or first in contact with high-risk behaviors tend to seek help and advice on the social networking platform, rather than immediately going to a hospital for blood tests. Online communities have generated copious amounts of data offering new opportunities for understanding hidden populations with unprecedented sample sizes and richness of information. It is recommended that support through online services for HIV/AIDS consultation and diagnosis be improved to avoid privacy concerns and social discrimination in China.

T-cell stimuli independently sum to regulate an inherited clonal division fate

PubMed Central

Marchingo, J. M.; Prevedello, G.; Kan, A.; Heinzel, S.; Hodgkin, P. D.; Duffy, K. R.

2016-01-01

In the presence of antigen and costimulation, T cells undergo a characteristic response of expansion, cessation and contraction. Previous studies have revealed that population-level reproducibility is a consequence of multiple clones exhibiting considerable disparity in burst size, highlighting the requirement for single-cell information in understanding T-cell fate regulation. Here we show that individual T-cell clones resulting from controlled stimulation in vitro are strongly lineage imprinted with highly correlated expansion fates. Progeny from clonal families cease dividing in the same or adjacent generations, with inter-clonal variation producing burst-size diversity. The effects of costimulatory signals on individual clones sum together with stochastic independence; therefore, the net effect across multiple clones produces consistent, but heterogeneous population responses. These data demonstrate that substantial clonal heterogeneity arises through differences in experience of clonal progenitors, either through stochastic antigen interaction or by differences in initial receptor sensitivities. PMID:27869196

Post-treatment control of HIV infection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conway, Jessica M.; Perelson, Alan S.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV is not a cure. However, recent studies suggest that ART, initiated early during primary infection, may induce post-treatment control (PTC) of HIV infection with HIV RNA maintained at <50 copies per mL. We investigate the hypothesis that ART initiated early during primary infection permits PTC by limiting the size of the latent reservoir, which, if small enough at treatment termination, may allow the adaptive immune response to prevent viral rebound (VR) and control infection. We use a mathematical model of within host HIV dynamics to capture interactions among target cells, productively infected cells, latently infectedmore » cells, virus, and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). Analysis of our model reveals a range in CTL response strengths where a patient may show either VR or PTC, depending on the size of the latent reservoir at treatment termination. Below this range, patients will always rebound, whereas above this range, patients are predicted to behave like elite controllers. As a result, using data on latent reservoir sizes in patients treated during primary infection, we also predict population-level VR times for non-controllers consistent with observations.« less

Post-treatment control of HIV infection

DOE PAGES

Conway, Jessica M.; Perelson, Alan S.

2015-04-13

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV is not a cure. However, recent studies suggest that ART, initiated early during primary infection, may induce post-treatment control (PTC) of HIV infection with HIV RNA maintained at <50 copies per mL. We investigate the hypothesis that ART initiated early during primary infection permits PTC by limiting the size of the latent reservoir, which, if small enough at treatment termination, may allow the adaptive immune response to prevent viral rebound (VR) and control infection. We use a mathematical model of within host HIV dynamics to capture interactions among target cells, productively infected cells, latently infectedmore » cells, virus, and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). Analysis of our model reveals a range in CTL response strengths where a patient may show either VR or PTC, depending on the size of the latent reservoir at treatment termination. Below this range, patients will always rebound, whereas above this range, patients are predicted to behave like elite controllers. As a result, using data on latent reservoir sizes in patients treated during primary infection, we also predict population-level VR times for non-controllers consistent with observations.« less

Population dynamics of aberrant chromosome 1 in mice.

PubMed

Sabantsev, I; Spitsin, O; Agulnik, S; Ruvinsky, A

1993-05-01

Natural populations of two semispecies of house mouse, Mus musculus domesticus and M.m. musculus, were found to be polymorphic for an aberrant chromosome 1 bearing a large inserted block of homogeneously staining heterochromatin. Strong meiotic drive for the aberrant chromosome from M.m. musculus was previously observed in heterozygous female mice. There are at least three meiotic drive levels determined by different allelic variants of distorter. Homozygotes had low viability and females showed low fertility. Both homo- and heterozygous males had normal fertility and their segregation patterns did not deviate from normal. Computer simulations were performed of the dynamics of aberrant chromosome 1 in demes and populations. The data demonstrate that a spontaneous mutation (inversion) of an aberrant chromosome 1, once arisen, has a high probability of spreading in a population at high coefficients of meiotic drive and migration. In the long-term, the population attains a stationary state which is determined by the drive level and migration intensity. The state of stable genotypic equilibrium is independent of deme and population size, as well as of the initial concentration of the aberrant chromosome. As populations initially polymorphic for the distorters approach the stationary state, the stronger distorter is eliminated. The frequencies of the aberrant chromosome determined by computer analysis agree well with those obtained for the studied Asian M.m. musculus populations. The evolutionary pathways for the origin and fixation of the aberrant chromosome in natural populations are considered.

Predicting Hybrid Performances for Quality Traits through Genomic-Assisted Approaches in Central European Wheat

PubMed Central

Liu, Guozheng; Zhao, Yusheng; Gowda, Manje; Longin, C. Friedrich H.; Reif, Jochen C.; Mette, Michael F.

2016-01-01

Bread-making quality traits are central targets for wheat breeding. The objectives of our study were to (1) examine the presence of major effect QTLs for quality traits in a Central European elite wheat population, (2) explore the optimal strategy for predicting the hybrid performance for wheat quality traits, and (3) investigate the effects of marker density and the composition and size of the training population on the accuracy of prediction of hybrid performance. In total 135 inbred lines of Central European bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and 1,604 hybrids derived from them were evaluated for seven quality traits in up to six environments. The 135 parental lines were genotyped using a 90k single-nucleotide polymorphism array. Genome-wide association mapping initially suggested presence of several quantitative trait loci (QTLs), but cross-validation rather indicated the absence of major effect QTLs for all quality traits except of 1000-kernel weight. Genomic selection substantially outperformed marker-assisted selection in predicting hybrid performance. A resampling study revealed that increasing the effective population size in the estimation set of hybrids is relevant to boost the accuracy of prediction for an unrelated test population. PMID:27383841

Density-associated recruitment mediates coral population dynamics on a coral reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramanti, Lorenzo; Edmunds, Peter J.

2016-06-01

Theory suggests that density-associated processes can modulate community resilience following declines in population size. Here, we demonstrate density-associated processes in two scleractinian populations on the outer reef of Moorea, French Polynesia, that are rapidly increasing in size following the effects of two catastrophic disturbances. Between 2006 and 2010, predation by the corallivorous crown-of-thorns sea star reduced coral cover by 93 %; in 2010, the dead coral skeletons were removed by a cyclone, and in 2011 and 2012, high coral recruitment initiated population recovery. Coral recruitment was associated with coral cover, but the relationship differed between two coral genera that are almost exclusively broadcast spawners in Moorea. Acroporids recruited at low densities, and the density of recruits was positively associated with cover of Acropora, whereas pocilloporids recruited at high densities, and densities of their recruits were negatively associated with cover of Pocillopora. Together, our results suggest that associations between adult cover and density of both juveniles and recruits can mediate rapid coral community recovery after large disturbances. The difference between taxa in sign of the relationships between recruit density and coral cover indicate that they reflect contrasting mechanisms with the potential to mediate temporal shifts in taxonomic composition of coral communities.

Strong fluctuations in aboveground population size do not limit genetic diversity in populations of an endangered biennial species.

PubMed

Münzbergová, Zuzana; Šurinová, Maria; Husáková, Iveta; Brabec, Jiří

2018-04-26

Assessing genetic diversity within populations of rare species and understanding its determinants are crucial for effective species protection. While a lot is known about the relationships between genetic diversity, fitness, and current population size, very few studies explored the effects of past population size. Knowledge of past population size may, however, improve our ability to predict future population fates. We studied Gentianella praecox subsp. bohemica, a biennial species with extensive seed bank. We tested the effect of current, past minimal and maximal population size, and harmonic mean of population sizes within the last 15 years on genetic diversity and fitness. Maximum population size over the last 15 years was the best predictor of expected heterozygosity of the populations and was significantly related to current population size and management. Plant fitness was significantly related to current as well as maximum population size and expected heterozygosity. The results suggested that information on past population size may improve our understanding of contemporary genetic diversity across populations. They demonstrated that despite the strong fluctuations in population size, large reductions in population size do not result in immediate loss of genetic diversity and reduction of fitness within the populations. This is likely due to the seed bank of the species serving as reservoir of the genetic diversity of the populations. From a conservation point of view, this suggests that the restoration of small populations of short-lived species with permanent seed bank is possible as these populations may still be genetically diverse.

Climate-driven genetic divergence of limpets with different life histories across a southeast African marine biogeographic disjunction: different processes, same outcome.

PubMed

Teske, Peter R; Papadopoulos, Isabelle; Mmonwa, K Lucas; Matumba, T Given; McQuaid, Christopher D; Barker, Nigel P; Beheregaray, Luciano B

2011-12-01

Genetic divergence among populations of marine broadcast spawners in the absence of past geological barriers presents an intriguing challenge to understanding speciation in the sea. To determine how differences in life history affect genetic divergence and demographic histories across incomplete dispersal barriers, we conducted a comparative phylogeographic study of three intertidal limpets (Siphonaria spp.) represented on either side of a biogeographic disjunction separating tropical and subtropical marine provinces in southeastern Africa. Using a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data, we identified two distinct evolutionary lineages each in both Siphonaria concinna (a planktonic disperser) and S. nigerrima (a direct developer), and panmixia in a second planktonic disperser, S. capensis. Although phylogeographic breaks were present in two species, how these became established differed depending on their life histories. In the direct developer, lack of gene flow following divergence, and demographic expansion from a small initial size in the species' subtropical population, point to a single colonisation event. In contrast, the evolutionary lineages of the planktonic disperser split into two genetic lineages with much larger initial population sizes and southward gene flow continued at least periodically, indicating that divergence in this species may have been driven by a combination of reduced larval dispersal and divergent selection. These findings help explain why the presence or absence of phylogeographic breaks often appears to be independent of species' dispersal potential. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Effect of mean diameter and polydispersity of PLG microspheres on drug release: experiment and theory.

PubMed

Berchane, N S; Carson, K H; Rice-Ficht, A C; Andrews, M J

2007-06-07

The need to tailor release rate profiles from polymeric microspheres is a significant problem. Microsphere size, which has a significant effect on drug release rate, can potentially be varied to design a controlled drug delivery system with desired release profile. In this work the effects of microspheres mean diameter, polydispersity, and polymer degradation on drug release rate from poly(lactide-co-glycolide) (PLG) microspheres are described. Piroxicam containing PLG microspheres were fabricated at 20% loading, and at three different impeller speeds. A portion of the microspheres was then sieved giving five different size distributions. In vitro release kinetics were determined for each preparation. Based on these experimental results, a suitable mathematical theory has been developed that incorporates the effect of microsphere size distribution and polymer degradation on drug release. We show from in vitro release experiments that microsphere size has a significant effect on drug release rate. The initial release rate decreased with an increase in microsphere size. In addition, the release profile changed from first order to concave-upward (sigmoidal) as the microsphere size was increased. The mathematical model gave a good fit to the experimental release data. For highly polydisperse populations (polydispersity parameter b<3), incorporating the microsphere size distribution into the mathematical model gave a better fit to the experimental results than using the representative mean diameter. The validated mathematical model can be used to predict small-molecule drug release from PLG microsphere populations.

[Modelling of selection acting upon the pleioptropic locus in an asynchronous population].

PubMed

Zhdanov, O L; Frisman, E Ia

2014-08-01

We created and examined a mathematical model describing the size and genetic composition dynamics in a population with two age classes, where the survival of both zygotes and adult individuals is determined by one pleioptropic locus. Even under present limitations, as the outside effects of a complex multigenic system are reduced to the case of single locus, our model demonstrates a wide range of different evolutionary scenarios for possible changes in the population dynamics. An increase in the reproductive potential and survival is accompanied by a transition from stable to oscillating population numbers. However, the evolutionary growth of these parameters may be nonmonotonic and may fluctuate significantly. In the case of antagonistic pleioptropy, an increase in one of these parameters usually leads to a predictable decrease in the other. This, in turn, may even stabilize the numbers and genetic compositions of the age groups. We demonstrated that selection acting on later stages of the life cycle is accompanied by destabilization of the Hardy-Weinberg equilibriums that link allele and genotype frequencies. We obtained a balance ratio, which allowed us to compare the combined fitness of the genotypes and to demonstrate that selection leads to the exclusion of the least adapted genotypes. Initial conditionsmay in some cases determine the genetic composition and pattern of population size dynamics.

Growing the terrestrial planets from the gradual accumulation of submeter-sized objects

PubMed Central

Levison, Harold F.; Kretke, Katherine A.; Walsh, Kevin J.; Bottke, William F.

2015-01-01

Building the terrestrial planets has been a challenge for planet formation models. In particular, classical theories have been unable to reproduce the small mass of Mars and instead predict that a planet near 1.5 astronomical units (AU) should roughly be the same mass as Earth. Recently, a new model called Viscously Stirred Pebble Accretion (VSPA) has been developed that can explain the formation of the gas giants. This model envisions that the cores of the giant planets formed from 100- to 1,000-km bodies that directly accreted a population of pebbles—submeter-sized objects that slowly grew in the protoplanetary disk. Here we apply this model to the terrestrial planet region and find that it can reproduce the basic structure of the inner solar system, including a small Mars and a low-mass asteroid belt. Our models show that for an initial population of planetesimals with sizes similar to those of the main belt asteroids, VSPA becomes inefficient beyond ∼ 1.5 AU. As a result, Mars’s growth is stunted, and nothing large in the asteroid belt can accumulate. PMID:26512109

Growing the terrestrial planets from the gradual accumulation of submeter-sized objects.

PubMed

Levison, Harold F; Kretke, Katherine A; Walsh, Kevin J; Bottke, William F

2015-11-17

Building the terrestrial planets has been a challenge for planet formation models. In particular, classical theories have been unable to reproduce the small mass of Mars and instead predict that a planet near 1.5 astronomical units (AU) should roughly be the same mass as Earth. Recently, a new model called Viscously Stirred Pebble Accretion (VSPA) has been developed that can explain the formation of the gas giants. This model envisions that the cores of the giant planets formed from 100- to 1,000-km bodies that directly accreted a population of pebbles-submeter-sized objects that slowly grew in the protoplanetary disk. Here we apply this model to the terrestrial planet region and find that it can reproduce the basic structure of the inner solar system, including a small Mars and a low-mass asteroid belt. Our models show that for an initial population of planetesimals with sizes similar to those of the main belt asteroids, VSPA becomes inefficient beyond ∼ 1.5 AU. As a result, Mars's growth is stunted, and nothing large in the asteroid belt can accumulate.

Translocation and early post-release demography of endangered Laysan teal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, M.H.; Seavy, N.E.; Vekasy, M.S.; Klavitter, J.L.; Laniawe, L.P.

2008-01-01

In an attempt to reduce the high extinction risk inherent to small island populations, we translocated wild Laysan teal Anas laysanensis to a portion of its presumed prehistoric range. Most avian translocations lack the strategic post-release monitoring needed to assess early population establishment or failure. Therefore, we monitored the survival and reproduction of all founders, and their first-generation offspring using radio telemetry for 2 years after the first release. Forty-two Laysan teal were sourced directly from the only extant population on Laysan Island and transported 2 days by ship to Midway Atoll. All birds survived the translocation with nutritional and veterinary support, and spent between 4 and 14 days in captivity. Post-release survival of 42 founders was 0.857 (95% CI 0.86-0.99) during 2004-2006 or annualized 0.92 (95% CI 0.83-0.98). Seventeen of 18 founding hens attempted nesting in the first two breeding seasons. Fledgling success was 0.57 (95% CI 0.55-0.60) in 2005 and 0.63 (95% CI 0.62-0.64) in 2006. The effective founding female population (Ne) was 13. We applied these initial demographic rates to model population growth. The nascent population size increased to >100 after only 2 years post-release (?? = 1.73). If this growth rate continues, the size of the Midway population could surpass the source population before 2010. ?? 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2008 The Zoological Society of London.

Dissection of complex adult traits in a mouse synthetic population.

PubMed

Burke, David T; Kozloff, Kenneth M; Chen, Shu; West, Joshua L; Wilkowski, Jodi M; Goldstein, Steven A; Miller, Richard A; Galecki, Andrzej T

2012-08-01

Finding the causative genetic variations that underlie complex adult traits is a significant experimental challenge. The unbiased search strategy of genome-wide association (GWAS) has been used extensively in recent human population studies. These efforts, however, typically find only a minor fraction of the genetic loci that are predicted to affect variation. As an experimental model for the analysis of adult polygenic traits, we measured a mouse population for multiple phenotypes and conducted a genome-wide search for effector loci. Complex adult phenotypes, related to body size and bone structure, were measured as component phenotypes, and each subphenotype was associated with a genomic spectrum of candidate effector loci. The strategy successfully detected several loci for the phenotypes, at genome-wide significance, using a single, modest-sized population (N = 505). The effector loci each explain 2%-10% of the measured trait variation and, taken together, the loci can account for over 25% of a trait's total population variation. A replicate population (N = 378) was used to confirm initially observed loci for one trait (femur length), and, when the two groups were merged, the combined population demonstrated increased power to detect loci. In contrast to human population studies, our mouse genome-wide searches find loci that individually explain a larger fraction of the observed variation. Also, the additive effects of our detected mouse loci more closely match the predicted genetic component of variation. The genetic loci discovered are logical candidates for components of the genetic networks having evolutionary conservation with human biology.

CO2 Urban Synthesis and Analysis ("CO2-USA") Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J. C.; Hutyra, L.; Loughner, C.; Stein, A. F.; Lusk, K.; Mitchell, L.; Gately, C.; Wofsy, S. C.

2017-12-01

Emissions of carbon associated with cities comprise a large component of the anthropogenic source. A number of cities have announced plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but the scientific knowledge to quantitatively track emissions and assess the efficacy of mitigation is lacking. As the global population increasingly resides in urban regions, scientific knowledge about how much, where, and why a particular city emits carbon becomes increasingly important. To address this gap, researchers have initiated studies of carbon emissions and cycling in several U.S. cities, making it timely to develop a collaborative network to exchange information on community standards and common measurements, facilitate data sharing, and create analysis frameworks and cross-city syntheses to catalyze a new generation of researchers and enable new collaborations tackling important objectives that are difficult to address in isolation. We describe initial results from an incipient network focusing initially on cities in the U.S. with low barriers of entry that entrains a cross-section of U.S. urban centers with varying characteristics: size, population density, vegetation, urban form, infrastructure, development rates, climate, and meteorological patterns. Results will be reported that emerge from an initial workshop covering data harmonization & integration, inventory comparison, stakeholder outreach, network design, inverse modeling, and collaboration.

DUST COAGULATION IN THE VICINITY OF A GAP-OPENING JUPITER-MASS PLANET

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carballido, Augusto; Matthews, Lorin S.; Hyde, Truell W., E-mail: Augusto_Carballido@baylor.edu

We analyze the coagulation of dust in and around a gap opened by a Jupiter-mass planet. To this end, we carry out a high-resolution magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the gap environment, which is turbulent due to the magnetorotational instability. From the MHD simulation, we obtain values of the gas velocities, densities, and turbulent stresses (a) close to the gap edge, (b) in one of the two gas streams that accrete onto the planet, (c) inside the low-density gap, and (d) outside the gap. The MHD values are then input into a Monte Carlo dust-coagulation algorithm which models grain sticking andmore » compaction. We also introduce a simple implementation for bouncing, for comparison purposes. We consider two dust populations for each region: one whose initial size distribution is monodisperse, with monomer radius equal to 1 μ m, and another one whose initial size distribution follows the Mathis–Rumpl–Nordsieck distribution for interstellar dust grains, with an initial range of monomer radii between 0.5 and 10 μ m. Without bouncing, our Monte Carlo calculations show steady growth of dust aggregates in all regions, and the mass-weighted (m-w) average porosity of the initially monodisperse population reaches extremely high final values of 98%. The final m-w porosities in all other cases without bouncing range between 30% and 82%. The efficiency of compaction is due to high turbulent relative speeds between dust particles. When bouncing is introduced, growth is slowed down in the planetary wake and inside the gap. Future studies will need to explore the effect of different planet masses and electric charge on grains.« less

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

2013-01-01

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

Revisions of rump fat and body scoring indices for deer, elk, and moose

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cook, Rachel C.; Cook, John G.; Stephenson, Thomas R.; Myers, Woodrow L.; Mccorquodale, Scott M.; Vales, David J.; Irwin, Larry L.; Hall, P. Briggs; Spencer, Rocky D.; Murphie, Shannon L.; Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Miller, Patrick J.

2010-01-01

Because they do not require sacrificing animals, body condition scores (BCS), thickness of rump fat (MAXFAT), and other similar predictors of body fat have advanced estimating nutritional condition of ungulates and their use has proliferated in North America in the last decade. However, initial testing of these predictors was too limited to assess their reliability among diverse habitats, ecotypes, subspecies, and populations across the continent. With data collected from mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), elk (Cervus elaphus), and moose (Alces alces) during initial model development and data collected subsequently from free-ranging mule deer and elk herds across much of the western United States, we evaluated reliability across a broader range of conditions than were initially available. First, to more rigorously test reliability of the MAXFAT index, we evaluated its robustness across the 3 species, using an allometric scaling function to adjust for differences in animal size. We then evaluated MAXFAT, rump body condition score (rBCS), rLIVINDEX (an arithmetic combination of MAXFAT and rBCS), and our new allometrically scaled rump-fat thickness index using data from 815 free-ranging female Roosevelt and Rocky Mountain elk (C. e. roosevelti and C. e. nelsoni) from 19 populations encompassing 4 geographic regions and 250 free-ranging female mule deer from 7 populations and 2 regions. We tested for effects of subspecies, geographic region, and captive versus free-ranging existence. Rump-fat thickness, when scaled allometrically with body mass, was related to ingesta-free body fat over a 38–522-kg range of body mass (r2 = 0.87; P < 0.001), indicating the technique is remarkably robust among at least the 3 cervid species of our analysis. However, we found an underscoring bias with the rBCS for elk that had >12% body fat. This bias translated into a difference between subspecies, because Rocky Mountain elk tended to be fatter than Roosevelt elk in our sample. Effects of observer error with the rBCS also existed for mule deer with moderate to high levels of body fat, and deer body size significantly affected accuracy of the MAXFAT predictor. Our analyses confirm robustness of the rump-fat index for these 3 species but highlight the potential for bias due to differences in body size and to observer error with BCS scoring. We present alternative LIVINDEX equations where potential bias from rBCS and bias due to body size are eliminated or reduced. These modifications improve the accuracy of estimating body fat for projects intended to monitor nutritional status of herds or to evaluate nutrition's influence on population demographics.

Within-site variability in surveys of wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.; Sauer, John R.; Droege, Sam

1994-01-01

Most large-scale surveys of animal populations are based on counts of individuals observed during a sampling period, which are used as indexes to the population. The variability in these indexes not only reflects variability in population sizes among sites but also variability due to the inexactness of the counts. Repeated counts at survey sites can be used to document this additional source of variability and, in some applications, to mitigate its effects. We present models for evaluating the proportion of total variability in counts that is attributable to this within-site variability and apply them in the analysis of data from repeated counts on routes from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We analyzed data on 98 species, obtaining estimates of these percentages, which ranged from 3.5 to 100% with a mean of 36.25%. For at least 14 of the species, more than half of the variation in counts was attributable to within-site sources. Counts for species with lower average counts had a higher percentage of within-site variability. We discuss the relative cost efficiency of replicating sites or initiating new sites for several objectives, concluding that it is frequently better to initiate new sites than to attempt to replicate existing sites.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoth, Gregory W., E-mail: gregory.hoth@nist.gov; Pelle, Bruno; Riedl, Stefan

We demonstrate a two axis gyroscope by the use of light pulse atom interferometry with an expanding cloud of atoms in the regime where the cloud has expanded by 1.1–5 times its initial size during the interrogation. Rotations are measured by analyzing spatial fringe patterns in the atom population obtained by imaging the final cloud. The fringes arise from a correlation between an atom's initial velocity and its final position. This correlation is naturally created by the expansion of the cloud, but it also depends on the initial atomic distribution. We show that the frequency and contrast of these spatialmore » fringes depend on the details of the initial distribution and develop an analytical model to explain this dependence. We also discuss several challenges that must be overcome to realize a high-performance gyroscope with this technique.« less

Estimated hepatitis C prevalence and key population sizes in San Francisco: A foundation for elimination.

PubMed

Facente, Shelley N; Grebe, Eduard; Burk, Katie; Morris, Meghan D; Murphy, Edward L; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Smith, Aaron A; Sanchez, Melissa A; Evans, Jennifer L; Nishimura, Amy; Raymond, Henry F

2018-01-01

Initiated in 2016, End Hep C SF is a comprehensive initiative to eliminate hepatitis C (HCV) infection in San Francisco. The introduction of direct-acting antivirals to treat and cure HCV provides an opportunity for elimination. To properly measure progress, an estimate of baseline HCV prevalence, and of the number of people in various subpopulations with active HCV infection, is required to target and measure the impact of interventions. Our analysis was designed to incorporate multiple relevant data sources and estimate HCV burden for the San Francisco population as a whole, including specific key populations at higher risk of infection. Our estimates are based on triangulation of data found in case registries, medical records, observational studies, and published literature from 2010 through 2017. We examined subpopulations based on sex, age and/or HCV risk group. When multiple sources of data were available for subpopulation estimates, we calculated a weighted average using inverse variance weighting. Credible ranges (CRs) were derived from 95% confidence intervals of population size and prevalence estimates. We estimate that 21,758 residents of San Francisco are HCV seropositive (CR: 10,274-42,067), representing an overall seroprevalence of 2.5% (CR: 1.2%- 4.9%). Of these, 16,408 are estimated to be viremic (CR: 6,505-37,407), though this estimate includes treated cases; up to 12,257 of these (CR: 2,354-33,256) are people who are untreated and infectious. People who injected drugs in the last year represent 67.9% of viremic HCV infections. We estimated approximately 7,400 (51%) more HCV seropositive cases than are included in San Francisco's HCV surveillance case registry. Our estimate provides a useful baseline against which the impact of End Hep C SF can be measured.

Genetic structure and conservation of Mountain Lions in the South-Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest.

PubMed

Castilho, Camila S; Marins-Sá, Luiz G; Benedet, Rodrigo C; Freitas, Thales R O

2012-01-01

The Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest, one of the most endangered ecosystems worldwide, is also among the most important hotspots as regards biodiversity. Through intensive logging, the initial area has been reduced to around 12% of its original size. In this study we investigated the genetic variability and structure of the mountain lion, Puma concolor. Using 18 microsatellite loci we analyzed evidence of allele dropout, null alleles and stuttering, calculated the number of allele/locus, PIC, observed and expected heterozygosity, linkage disequilibrium, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, F(IS), effective population size and genetic structure (MICROCHECKER, CERVUS, GENEPOP, FSTAT, ARLEQUIN, ONESAMP, LDNe, PCAGEN, GENECLASS software), we also determine whether there was evidence of a bottleneck (HYBRIDLAB, BOTTLENECK software) that might influence the future viability of the population in south Brazil. 106 alleles were identified, with the number of alleles/locus ranging from 2 to 11. Mean observed heterozygosity, mean number of alleles and polymorphism information content were 0.609, 5.89, and 0.6255, respectively. This population presented evidence of a recent bottleneck and loss of genetic variation. Persistent regional poaching constitutes an increasing in the extinction risk.

Optimizing the availability of a buffered industrial process

DOEpatents

Martz, Jr., Harry F.; Hamada, Michael S.; Koehler, Arthur J.; Berg, Eric C.

2004-08-24

A computer-implemented process determines optimum configuration parameters for a buffered industrial process. A population size is initialized by randomly selecting a first set of design and operation values associated with subsystems and buffers of the buffered industrial process to form a set of operating parameters for each member of the population. An availability discrete event simulation (ADES) is performed on each member of the population to determine the product-based availability of each member. A new population is formed having members with a second set of design and operation values related to the first set of design and operation values through a genetic algorithm and the product-based availability determined by the ADES. Subsequent population members are then determined by iterating the genetic algorithm with product-based availability determined by ADES to form improved design and operation values from which the configuration parameters are selected for the buffered industrial process.

Using delimiting surveys to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics facilitates the management of an invasive non-native insect

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin; Laura M. Blackburn; Rebecca H. Gray; Christopher T. Lettau; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kenneth F. Raffa

2013-01-01

The ability to ascertain abundance and spatial extent of a nascent population of a non-native species can inform management decisions. Following initial detection, delimiting surveys, which involve the use of a finer network of samples around the focal point of a newly detected colony, are often used to quantify colony size, spatial extent, and the location of the...

Introduction to Biological Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-11

grows by consuming phytoplankton (P ) and phytoplank- ton grows due to source of nutrients (N) assumed to be fixed; both have natural death rates dP...probability can be modeled as PT =    ndnδt δn = −1 1− ngnδt− ndnδt δn = 0 ngnδt δn = 1 where gn and dn are the growth and death rates per capita...size with growth and death rates independent of population size lim t→∞ σ < n > = √ √ √ √ σ20+ < n >0 g+d g−d < n >20 where σ0 and < n >0 are the initial

A Bayesian model for estimating population means using a link-tracing sampling design.

PubMed

St Clair, Katherine; O'Connell, Daniel

2012-03-01

Link-tracing sampling designs can be used to study human populations that contain "hidden" groups who tend to be linked together by a common social trait. These links can be used to increase the sampling intensity of a hidden domain by tracing links from individuals selected in an initial wave of sampling to additional domain members. Chow and Thompson (2003, Survey Methodology 29, 197-205) derived a Bayesian model to estimate the size or proportion of individuals in the hidden population for certain link-tracing designs. We propose an addition to their model that will allow for the modeling of a quantitative response. We assess properties of our model using a constructed population and a real population of at-risk individuals, both of which contain two domains of hidden and nonhidden individuals. Our results show that our model can produce good point and interval estimates of the population mean and domain means when our population assumptions are satisfied. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

PubMed Central

Haines, Aaron M.; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J. Michael; Goble, Dale D.; Rachlow, Janet L.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary The objective of our study was to evaluate the mention of uncertainty (i.e., variance) associated with population size estimates within U.S. recovery plans for endangered animals. To do this we reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species. We found that more recent recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. We recommend that updated recovery plans combine uncertainty of population size estimates with a minimum detectable difference to aid in successful recovery. Abstract United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data. PMID:26479531

Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) for monitoring a leprosy elimination program.

PubMed

Gupte, M D; Narasimhamurthy, B

1999-06-01

In a statistical sense, prevalences of leprosy in different geographical areas can be called very low or rare. Conventional survey methods to monitor leprosy control programs, therefore, need large sample sizes, are expensive, and are time-consuming. Further, with the lowering of prevalence to the near-desired target level, 1 case per 10,000 population at national or subnational levels, the program administrator's concern will be shifted to smaller areas, e.g., districts, for assessment and, if needed, for necessary interventions. In this paper, Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS), a quality control tool in industry, is proposed to identify districts/regions having a prevalence of leprosy at or above a certain target level, e.g., 1 in 10,000. This technique can also be considered for identifying districts/regions at or below the target level of 1 per 10,000, i.e., areas where the elimination level is attained. For simulating various situations and strategies, a hypothetical computerized population of 10 million persons was created. This population mimics the actual population in terms of the empirical information on rural/urban distributions and the distribution of households by size for the state of Tamil Nadu, India. Various levels with respect to leprosy prevalence are created using this population. The distribution of the number of cases in the population was expected to follow the Poisson process, and this was also confirmed by examination. Sample sizes and corresponding critical values were computed using Poisson approximation. Initially, villages/towns are selected from the population and from each selected village/town households are selected using systematic sampling. Households instead of individuals are used as sampling units. This sampling procedure was simulated 1000 times in the computer from the base population. The results in four different prevalence situations meet the required limits of Type I error of 5% and 90% Power. It is concluded that after validation under field conditions, this method can be considered for a rapid assessment of the leprosy situation.

White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; McKann, Patrick C.; Pruitt, Lori; King, R. Andrew; Runge, Michael C.; Russell, Robin E.

2013-01-01

White-nose syndrome, a novel fungal pathogen spreading quickly through cave-hibernating bat species in east and central North America, is responsible for killing millions of bats. We developed a stochastic, stage-based population model to forecast the population dynamics of the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) subject to white-nose syndrome. Our population model explicitly incorporated environmentally imposed annual variability in survival and reproductive rates and demographic stochasticity in predictions of extinction. With observed rates of disease spread, >90% of wintering populations were predicted to experience white-nose syndrome within 20 years, causing the proportion of populations at the quasi-extinction threshold of less than 250 females to increase by 33.9% over 50 years. At the species’ lowest median population level, ca. year 2022, we predicted 13.7% of the initial population to remain, totaling 28,958 females (95% CI = 13,330; 92,335). By 2022, only 12 of the initial 52 wintering populations were expected to possess wintering populations of >250 females. If the species can acquire immunity to the disease, we predict 3.7% of wintering populations to be above 250 females after 50 years (year 2057) after a 69% decline in abundance (from 210,741 to 64,768 [95% CI = 49,386; 85,360] females). At the nadir of projections, we predicted regional quasi-extirpation of wintering populations in 2 of 4 Recovery Units while in a third region, where the species is currently most abundant, >95% of the wintering populations were predicted to be below 250 females. Our modeling suggests white-nose syndrome is capable of bringing about severe numerical reduction in population size and local and regional extirpation of the Indiana bat.

Population cage experiments with a vertebrate: The temporal demography and cytonuclear genetics of hybridization on Gambusia fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.; Avise, John C.

1994-01-01

The dynamics of mitochondrial and multilocus nuclear genotypic frequencies were monitored for 2 yr in experimental populations established with equal numbers of two poeciliid fishes (Gambusia affinis and Gambusia holbrooki) that hybridize naturally in the southeastern United States. In replicated "small-pool" populations (experiment I), 1018 sampled individuals at six time periods revealed an initial flush of hybridization, followed by a rapid decline in frequencies of G. affinis nuclear and mitochondrial alleles over 64 wk. Decay of gametic and cytonuclear disequilibria differed from expectations under random mating as well as under a model of assortative mating involving empirically estimated mating propensities. In two replicate "large-pond" populations (experiment II), 841 sampled individuals across four reproductive cohorts revealed lower initial frequencies of F1 hybrids than in experiment I, but again G. holbrooki alleles achieved high frequencies over four generations (72 wk). Thus, evolution within experimental Gambusia hybrid populations can be extremely rapid, resulting in consistent loss of G. affinis nuclear and cytoplasmic alleles. Concordance in results between experiments and across genetic markers suggests strong directional selection favoring G. holbrooki genotypes. Results are interpreted in light of previous reports of genotype-specific differences in life-history traits, reproductive ecology, patterns of recruitment, and size-specific mortality, and in the context of patterns of introgression previously studied indirectly from spatial observations on cytonuclear genotypes in natural Gambusia populations.

Bivalves: From individual to population modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saraiva, S.; van der Meer, J.; Kooijman, S. A. L. M.; Ruardij, P.

2014-11-01

An individual based population model for bivalves was designed, built and tested in a 0D approach, to simulate the population dynamics of a mussel bed located in an intertidal area. The processes at the individual level were simulated following the dynamic energy budget theory, whereas initial egg mortality, background mortality, food competition, and predation (including cannibalism) were additional population processes. Model properties were studied through the analysis of theoretical scenarios and by simulation of different mortality parameter combinations in a realistic setup, imposing environmental measurements. Realistic criteria were applied to narrow down the possible combination of parameter values. Field observations obtained in the long-term and multi-station monitoring program were compared with the model scenarios. The realistically selected modeling scenarios were able to reproduce reasonably the timing of some peaks in the individual abundances in the mussel bed and its size distribution but the number of individuals was not well predicted. The results suggest that the mortality in the early life stages (egg and larvae) plays an important role in population dynamics, either by initial egg mortality, larvae dispersion, settlement failure or shrimp predation. Future steps include the coupling of the population model with a hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model to improve the simulation of egg/larvae dispersion, settlement probability, food transport and also to simulate the feedback of the organisms' activity on the water column properties, which will result in an improvement of the food quantity and quality characterization.

Probability Sampling Method for a Hidden Population Using Respondent-Driven Sampling: Simulation for Cancer Survivors.

PubMed

Jung, Minsoo

2015-01-01

When there is no sampling frame within a certain group or the group is concerned that making its population public would bring social stigma, we say the population is hidden. It is difficult to approach this kind of population survey-methodologically because the response rate is low and its members are not quite honest with their responses when probability sampling is used. The only alternative known to address the problems caused by previous methods such as snowball sampling is respondent-driven sampling (RDS), which was developed by Heckathorn and his colleagues. RDS is based on a Markov chain, and uses the social network information of the respondent. This characteristic allows for probability sampling when we survey a hidden population. We verified through computer simulation whether RDS can be used on a hidden population of cancer survivors. According to the simulation results of this thesis, the chain-referral sampling of RDS tends to minimize as the sample gets bigger, and it becomes stabilized as the wave progresses. Therefore, it shows that the final sample information can be completely independent from the initial seeds if a certain level of sample size is secured even if the initial seeds were selected through convenient sampling. Thus, RDS can be considered as an alternative which can improve upon both key informant sampling and ethnographic surveys, and it needs to be utilized for various cases domestically as well.

Effectiveness of a Psychoeducational Parenting Group on Child, Parent and Family Behavior: A Pilot Study in a Family Practice Clinic with an Underserved Population

PubMed Central

Berge, Jerica M.; Law, David D.; Johnson, Jennifer; Wells, M. Gawain

2013-01-01

Background Although integrated care for adults in primary care has steadily increased over the last several decades, there remains a paucity of research regarding integrated care for children in primary care. Purpose To report results of a pilot study testing initial feasibility of a parenting psychoeducational group targeting child behavioral problems within a primary care clinic. Method The participants (n = 35) were parents representing an underserved population from an inner-city primary care clinic. Participants attended a 12-week psychoeducational parenting group and reported pre- and post-measures of family functioning, child misbehavior and dyadic functioning. Paired t-tests and effects sizes are reported. Results Participants reported statistically significant improvement in family functioning, child misbehavior and couple functioning after participating in the parenting psychoeducational group. Conclusions Results suggest initial feasibility of a parenting psychoeducational group within a primary care clinic with an underserved population. This intervention may be useful for other primary care clinics seeking to offer more integrative care options for children and their families. PMID:20939627

Implications of Atmospheric Test Fallout Data for Nuclear Winter.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, George Harold, III

1987-09-01

Atmospheric test fallout data have been used to determine admissable dust particle size distributions for nuclear winter studies. The research was originally motivated by extreme differences noted in the magnitude and longevity of dust effects predicted by particle size distributions routinely used in fallout predictions versus those used for nuclear winter studies. Three different sets of historical data have been analyzed: (1) Stratospheric burden of Strontium -90 and Tungsten-185, 1954-1967 (92 contributing events); (2) Continental U.S. Strontium-90 fallout through 1958 (75 contributing events); (3) Local Fallout from selected Nevada tests (16 events). The contribution of dust to possible long term climate effects following a nuclear exchange depends strongly on the particle size distribution. The distribution affects both the atmospheric residence time and optical depth. One dimensional models of stratospheric/tropospheric fallout removal were developed and used to identify optimum particle distributions. Results indicate that particle distributions which properly predict bulk stratospheric activity transfer tend to be somewhat smaller than number size distributions used in initial nuclear winter studies. In addition, both ^{90}Sr and ^ {185}W fallout behavior is better predicted by the lognormal distribution function than the prevalent power law hybrid function. It is shown that the power law behavior of particle samples may well be an aberration of gravitational cloud stratification. Results support the possible existence of two independent particle size distributions in clouds generated by surface or near surface bursts. One distribution governs late time stratospheric fallout, the other governs early time fallout. A bimodal lognormal distribution is proposed to describe the cloud particle population. The distribution predicts higher initial sunlight attenuation and lower late time attenuation than the power law hybrid function used in initial nuclear winter studies.

Role of patch size, disease, and movement in rapid extinction of bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, F.J.; Zeigenfuss, L.C.; Spicer, L.

2001-01-01

The controversy (Berger 1990, 1999; Wehausen 1999) over rapid extinction in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) has focused on population size alone as a correlate to persistence time. We report on the persistence and population performance of 24 translocated populations of bighorn sheep. Persistence in these sheep was strongly correlated with larger patch sizes, greater distance to domestic sheep, higher population growth rates, and migratory movements, as well as to larger population sizes. Persistence was also positively correlated with larger average home-range size (p = 0.058, n = 10 translocated populations) and home-range size of rams (p = 0.087, n = 8 translocated populations). Greater home-range size and dispersal rates of bighorn sheep were positively correlated to larger patches. We conclude that patch size and thus habitat carrying capacity, not population size per se, is the primary correlate to both population performance and persistence. Because habitat carrying capacity defines the upper limit to population size, clearly the amount of suitable habitat in a patch is ultimately linked to population size. Larger populations (250+ animals) were more likely to recover rapidly to their pre-epizootic survey number following an epizootic (p = 0.019), although the proportion of the population dying in the epizootic also influenced the probability of recovery (p = 0.001). Expensive management efforts to restore or increase bighorn sheep populations should focus on large habitat patches located ≥23 km from domestic sheep, and less effort should be expended on populations in isolated, small patches of habitat.

Role of the Axon Initial Segment in the Control of Spontaneous Frequency of Nigral Dopaminergic Neurons In Vivo.

PubMed

Meza, Rodrigo C; López-Jury, Luciana; Canavier, Carmen C; Henny, Pablo

2018-01-17

The spontaneous tonic discharge activity of nigral dopamine neurons plays a fundamental role in dopaminergic signaling. To investigate the role of neuronal morphology and architecture with respect to spontaneous activity in this population, we visualized the 3D structure of the axon initial segment (AIS) along with the entire somatodendritic domain of adult male mouse dopaminergic neurons, previously recorded in vivo We observed a positive correlation of the firing rate with both proximity and size of the AIS. Computational modeling showed that the size of the AIS, but not its position within the somatodendritic domain, is the major causal determinant of the tonic firing rate in the intact model, by virtue of the higher intrinsic frequency of the isolated AIS. Further mechanistic analysis of the relationship between neuronal morphology and firing rate showed that dopaminergic neurons function as a coupled oscillator whose frequency of discharge results from a compromise between AIS and somatodendritic oscillators. Thus, morphology plays a critical role in setting the basal tonic firing rate, which in turn could control striatal dopaminergic signaling that mediates motivation and movement. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The frequency at which nigral dopamine neurons discharge action potentials sets baseline dopamine levels in the brain, which enables activity in motor, cognitive, and motivational systems. Here, we demonstrate that the size of the axon initial segment, a subcellular compartment responsible for initiating action potentials, is a key determinant of the firing rate in these neurons. The axon initial segment and all the molecular components that underlie its critical function may provide a novel target for the regulation of dopamine levels in the brain. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/380733-12$15.00/0.

Intraspecific variation in nutrient reserve use during clutch formation by Lesser Scaup

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esler, Daniel N.; Grand, James B.; Afton, Alan D.

2001-01-01

We studied nutrient reserve dynamics of female Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) to identify sources of intraspecific variation in strategies of nutrient acquisition for meeting the high nutritional and energetic costs of egg formation. We collected data from interior Alaska and combined these with data for Lesser Scaup from midcontinent breeding areas (Afton and Ankney 1991), allowing a rangewide analysis for the species. We found little evidence that nutrient reserve use differed between Alaskan and midcontinent Lesser Scaup, except that subarctic birds used a small amount of protein reserves when forming eggs, whereas midcontinent birds did not. Mineral reserves contributed relatively little to the clutch, but endogenous lipid accounted for approximately two-thirds of the lipid in the clutch. Levels of endogenous lipid and protein at initiation of clutch formation declined with date of initiation. Also, absolute amounts of lipid and protein reserves used declined through the season, corresponding to smaller clutch sizes. Our data are consistent with a seasonally variable threshold of lipid reserves for initiation of clutch formation and considerable reliance on lipid reserves, suggestive of lipid control of productivity via effects on clutch size and initiation dates. However, our data cannot refute the hypothesis that clutch size or initiation dates are set by other factors that in turn dictate the amount of lipid reserves that are stored and used. Despite uncertainty regarding the role of nutrient limitations on productivity, maintenance of adequate food resources on winter, migration, and breeding areas should be a management concern, given the high costs of clutch formation by Lesser Scaup, evidence of recent population declines, and potential links between nutrition and productivity.

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process.

PubMed

Haines, Aaron M; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J Michael; Goble, Dale D; Rachlow, Janet L

2013-08-13

United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Small body size in an insect shifts development, prior to adult eclosion, towards early reproduction

PubMed Central

Thorne, Ashley D; Pexton, John J; Dytham, Calvin; Mayhew, Peter J

2006-01-01

Life-history theory has suggested that individual body size can strongly affect the allocation of resources to reproduction and away from other traits such as survival. In many insects, adults eclose with a proportion of their potential lifetime egg production that is already mature (the ovigeny index). We establish for the solitary parasitoid wasp Aphaereta genevensis that the ovigeny index decreases with adult body size, despite both initial egg load and potential lifetime fecundity increasing with body size. This outcome is predicted by adaptive models and is the first unequivocal intraspecific demonstration. Evidence suggests that a high ovigeny index carries a cost of reduced longevity in insects. Our results therefore contribute to the emerging evidence that small body size can favour a developmental shift in juveniles that favours early reproduction, but which has adverse late-life consequences. These findings are likely to have important implications for developmental biologists and population biologists. PMID:16600887

Synchronous termination of replication of the two chromosomes is an evolutionary selected feature in Vibrionaceae

PubMed Central

Kemter, Franziska S.; Messerschmidt, Sonja J.; Schallopp, Nadine; Sobetzko, Patrick; Bunk, Boyke; Spröer, Cathrin; Teschler, Jennifer K.; Yildiz, Fitnat H.

2018-01-01

Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of the cholera disease, is commonly used as a model organism for the study of bacteria with multipartite genomes. Its two chromosomes of different sizes initiate their DNA replication at distinct time points in the cell cycle and terminate in synchrony. In this study, the time-delayed start of Chr2 was verified in a synchronized cell population. This replication pattern suggests two possible regulation mechanisms for other Vibrio species with different sized secondary chromosomes: Either all Chr2 start DNA replication with a fixed delay after Chr1 initiation, or the timepoint at which Chr2 initiates varies such that termination of chromosomal replication occurs in synchrony. We investigated these two models and revealed that the two chromosomes of various Vibrionaceae species terminate in synchrony while Chr2-initiation timing relative to Chr1 is variable. Moreover, the sequence and function of the Chr2-triggering crtS site recently discovered in V. cholerae were found to be conserved, explaining the observed timing mechanism. Our results suggest that it is beneficial for bacterial cells with multiple chromosomes to synchronize their replication termination, potentially to optimize chromosome related processes as dimer resolution or segregation. PMID:29505558

Community-based efforts to prevent obesity: Australia-wide survey of projects.

PubMed

Nichols, Melanie S; Reynolds, Rebecca C; Waters, Elizabeth; Gill, Timothy; King, Lesley; Swinburn, Boyd A; Allender, Steven

2013-08-01

Community-based programs that affect healthy environments and policies have emerged as an effective response to high obesity levels in populations. Apart from limited individual reports, little is currently known about these programs, limiting the potential to provide effective support, to promote effective practice, prevent adverse outcomes and disseminate intervention results and experience. The aim of the present study was to identify the size and reach of current community-based obesity prevention projects in Australia and to examine their characteristics, program features (e.g. intervention setting), capacity and approach to obesity prevention. Detailed survey completed by representatives from community-based obesity prevention initiatives in Australia. There was wide variation in funding, capacity and approach to obesity prevention among the 78 participating projects. Median annual funding was Au$94900 (range Au$2500-$4.46 million). The most common intervention settings were schools (39%). Forty per cent of programs focused on a population group of ≥50000 people. A large proportion of respondents felt that they did not have sufficient resources or staff training to achieve project objectives. Community-based projects currently represent a very large investment by both government and non-government sectors for the prevention of obesity. Existing projects are diverse in size and scope, and reach large segments of the population. Further work is needed to identify the full extent of existing community actions and to monitor their reach and future 'scale up' to ensure that future activities aim for effective integration into systems, policies and environments. SO WHAT? Community-based programs make a substantial contribution to the prevention of obesity and promotion of healthy lifestyles in Australia. A risk of the current intervention landscape is that effective approaches may go unrecognised due to lack of effective evaluations or limitations in program design, duration or size. Policy makers and researchers must recognise the potential contribution of these initiatives, to both public health and knowledge generation, and provide support for strong evaluation and sustainable intervention designs.

The "Exercise Is Medicine on Campus" Initiative's Impact on Active Commuting: A Pilot Study of A Rural Southeastern University.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Melton, Bridget F.; Jackson, Brandon; Whilhoitte, Sydni; Riggs, Amy Jo; Ryan, Greg A.

2018-01-01

The purpose of the study was to investigate the impact of an Exercise is Medicine-On Campus (EIM-OC) campaign on university transit use. Implementation of the EIM-OC was conducted during a 3 week period, in a southeast, mid-sized university that embodies a population of just over 20,000 undergraduate and graduate students. The EIM-OC campaign…

Enhancing Psychosis-Spectrum Nosology Through an International Data Sharing Initiative.

PubMed

Docherty, Anna R; Fonseca-Pedrero, Eduardo; Debbané, Martin; Chan, Raymond C K; Linscott, Richard J; Jonas, Katherine G; Cicero, David C; Green, Melissa J; Simms, Leonard J; Mason, Oliver; Watson, David; Ettinger, Ulrich; Waszczuk, Monika; Rapp, Alexander; Grant, Phillip; Kotov, Roman; DeYoung, Colin G; Ruggero, Camilo J; Eaton, Nicolas R; Krueger, Robert F; Patrick, Christopher; Hopwood, Christopher; O'Neill, F Anthony; Zald, David H; Conway, Christopher C; Adkins, Daniel E; Waldman, Irwin D; van Os, Jim; Sullivan, Patrick F; Anderson, John S; Shabalin, Andrey A; Sponheim, Scott R; Taylor, Stephan F; Grazioplene, Rachel G; Bacanu, Silviu A; Bigdeli, Tim B; Haenschel, Corinna; Malaspina, Dolores; Gooding, Diane C; Nicodemus, Kristin; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Barrantes-Vidal, Neus; Mohr, Christine; Carpenter, William T; Cohen, Alex S

2018-05-16

The latent structure of schizotypy and psychosis-spectrum symptoms remains poorly understood. Furthermore, molecular genetic substrates are poorly defined, largely due to the substantial resources required to collect rich phenotypic data across diverse populations. Sample sizes of phenotypic studies are often insufficient for advanced structural equation modeling approaches. In the last 50 years, efforts in both psychiatry and psychological science have moved toward (1) a dimensional model of psychopathology (eg, the current Hierarchical Taxonomy of Psychopathology [HiTOP] initiative), (2) an integration of methods and measures across traits and units of analysis (eg, the RDoC initiative), and (3) powerful, impactful study designs maximizing sample size to detect subtle genomic variation relating to complex traits (the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium [PGC]). These movements are important to the future study of the psychosis spectrum, and to resolving heterogeneity with respect to instrument and population. The International Consortium of Schizotypy Research is composed of over 40 laboratories in 12 countries, and to date, members have compiled a body of schizotypy- and psychosis-related phenotype data from more than 30000 individuals. It has become apparent that compiling data into a protected, relational database and crowdsourcing analytic and data science expertise will result in significant enhancement of current research on the structure and biological substrates of the psychosis spectrum. The authors present a data-sharing infrastructure similar to that of the PGC, and a resource-sharing infrastructure similar to that of HiTOP. This report details the rationale and benefits of the phenotypic data collective and presents an open invitation for participation.

Variation in egg size of the northern pintail

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.

1996-01-01

Egg size is an important determinant of reproductive investment by birds. For many species, total investment in a clutch is limited by the size of stored reserves (Ankney and MacInnes 1978, Esler and Grand 1994a). Egg size determines the unit by which these stored reserves are partitioned. Individual females in most species of waterfowl show a high repeatability for egg size, implying that individual either cannot, or do not, alter their egg size in response to varying environmental conditions (batt and Prince 1979, Duncan 1987, Laurila and Hario 1988, Lessells et al 1989, Flint and Sedinger 1992). Thus differences in egg size appear to represent different reproductive strategies among individuals.Fitness can be measured by the number of offspring an individual contributes to a population. Egg size may be related to fitness in some species fo waterfowl as young from larger eggs are better able to survive extreme conditions (Ankney 1980, Thomas and Brown 1988). Birds laying larger clutches are almost always more fit as they fledge more young (Lessells 1986, Rockwell et al 1987, Flint 1993). These fitness patterns create the potential for a trade-off between clutch size and egg size where females laying large clutches of small eggs have the same fitness as females laying smaller clutches of large eggs. The fact that Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) utilize stored reserves (Mann and Sedinger 1993, esler and Grand 1994a) and have a high repeatability for egg size (i.e. egg size is fixed) (Duncan 1987), makes them candidates to engage in clutch size=egg size trade-offs (Rowher 1988, Rowher and Eisenhauer 1989). An inverse relationship between egg size and clutch size would be indicative of a phenotypic trade-off among these fitness components. Our goal in this study was to describe egg size variation in Northern Pintails (hereafter pintails) with regard to female age, body size, clutch size, year, initiation date, and nesting attempt. We compare our results to those from other populations of nesting pintails and discuss whether phenotypic clutch size-egg size tradeoffs exist for pintails.

Introgression Makes Waves in Inferred Histories of Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Hawks, John

2017-01-01

Human populations have a complex history of introgression and of changing population size. Human genetic variation has been affected by both these processes, so inference of past population size depends upon the pattern of gene flow and introgression among past populations. One remarkable aspect of human population history as inferred from genetics is a consistent "wave" of larger effective population sizes, found in both African and non-African populations, that appears to reflect events prior to the last 100,000 years. I carried out a series of simulations to investigate how introgression and gene flow from genetically divergent ancestral populations affect the inference of ancestral effective population size. Both introgression and gene flow from an extinct, genetically divergent population consistently produce a wave in the history of inferred effective population size. The time and amplitude of the wave reflect the time of origin of the genetically divergent ancestral populations and the strength of introgression or gene flow. These results demonstrate that even small fractions of introgression or gene flow from ancient populations may have visible effects on the inference of effective population size.

Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins.

PubMed

Eller, Elise; Hawks, John; Relethford, John H

2004-10-01

A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.

Population and Individual Elephant Response to a Catastrophic Fire in Pilanesberg National Park

PubMed Central

Woolley, Leigh-Ann; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Woods, Rami J.; Janse van Rensburg, Samantha; Mackey, Robin L.; Page, Bruce; Slotow, Rob

2008-01-01

In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality) and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress) levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability), did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern seen in predator-free large ungulate populations, i.e. mainly involving juveniles. Fire therefore functions in a similar manner to other environmental catastrophes and may be a natural mechanism contributing to population limitation. Welfare concerns of arson fires, burning during “hot-fire” conditions and the conservation implications of fire suppression (i.e. removal of a potential contributing factor to natural population regulation) should be integrated into fire management strategies for conservation areas. PMID:18797503

Particle Size Effects on CL-20 Initiation and Detonation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valancius, Cole; Bainbridge, Joe; Love, Cody; Richardson, Duane

2017-06-01

Particle size or specific surface area effects on explosives has been of interest to the explosives community for both application and modeling of initiation and detonation. Different particles sizes of CL-20 were used in detonator experiments to determine the effects of particle size on initiation, run-up to steady state detonation, and steady state detonation. Historical tests have demonstrated a direct relationship between particle size and initiation. However, historical tests inadvertently employed density gradients, making it difficult to discern the effects of particle size from the effects of density. Density gradients were removed from these tests using a larger diameter, shorter charge column, allowing for similar loading across different particle sizes. Without the density gradient, the effects of particle size on initiation and detonation are easier to determine. The results of which contrast with historical results, showing particle size does not directly affect initiation threshold.

Domestication and human demographic history in South America.

PubMed

Perez, S Ivan; Postillone, María Bárbara; Rindel, Diego

2017-05-01

The early groups of hunter-gatherers who peopled South America faced significant ecological changes in their trophic niche for a relatively short period after the initial peopling. In particular, the incorporation of cultigens during the Holocene led to a wider trophic niche and probably to an increased carrying capacity of the environment. Here, we study the relationship between the incorporation of domestic resources during the Holocene and the demographic dynamics of human populations at a regional scale in South America. We employ mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), radiocarbon data and Bayesian methods to estimate differences in population size, human occupation and explore the demographic changes of human populations in three regions (i.e., South-Central Andes, Northwest, and South Patagonia). We also use archaeological evidence to infer the main diet changes in these regions. The absolute population size during the later Late Holocene was fifteen times larger in the South-Central Andes than in Northwest Patagonia, and two times larger in the latter region than in South Patagonia. The South-Central Andes display the earlier and more abrupt population growth, beginning about 9000 years BP, whereas Northwest Patagonia exhibits a more slow growth, beginning about 7000-7500 years BP. South Patagonia represents a later and slower population increase. In this work we uncovered a well-supported pattern of the demographic change in the populations from South-Central Andes and Patagonia, obtained on the basis of different data and quantitative approaches, which suggests that the incorporation of domestic resources was paramount for the demographic expansion of these populations during the Holocene. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The efficacy of respondent-driven sampling for the health assessment of minority populations.

PubMed

Badowski, Grazyna; Somera, Lilnabeth P; Simsiman, Brayan; Lee, Hye-Ryeon; Cassel, Kevin; Yamanaka, Alisha; Ren, JunHao

2017-10-01

Respondent driven sampling (RDS) is a relatively new network sampling technique typically employed for hard-to-reach populations. Like snowball sampling, initial respondents or "seeds" recruit additional respondents from their network of friends. Under certain assumptions, the method promises to produce a sample independent from the biases that may have been introduced by the non-random choice of "seeds." We conducted a survey on health communication in Guam's general population using the RDS method, the first survey that has utilized this methodology in Guam. It was conducted in hopes of identifying a cost-efficient non-probability sampling strategy that could generate reasonable population estimates for both minority and general populations. RDS data was collected in Guam in 2013 (n=511) and population estimates were compared with 2012 BRFSS data (n=2031) and the 2010 census data. The estimates were calculated using the unweighted RDS sample and the weighted sample using RDS inference methods and compared with known population characteristics. The sample size was reached in 23days, providing evidence that the RDS method is a viable, cost-effective data collection method, which can provide reasonable population estimates. However, the results also suggest that the RDS inference methods used to reduce bias, based on self-reported estimates of network sizes, may not always work. Caution is needed when interpreting RDS study findings. For a more diverse sample, data collection should not be conducted in just one location. Fewer questions about network estimates should be asked, and more careful consideration should be given to the kind of incentives offered to participants. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Comparison of plant families in a greenhouse phytoremediation study on an aged polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon-contaminated soil.

PubMed

Olson, Paul E; Castro, Ana; Joern, Mark; DuTeau, Nancy M; Pilon-Smits, Elizabeth A H; Reardon, Kenneth F

2007-01-01

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous, recalcitrant, and potentially carcinogenic pollutants. Plants and their associated rhizosphere microbes can promote PAH dissipation, offering an economic and ecologically attractive remediation technique. This study focused on the effects of different types of vegetation on PAH removal and on the interaction between the plants and their associated microorganisms. Aged PAH-polluted soil with a total PAH level of 753 mg kg(-1) soil dry weight was planted with 18 plant species representing eight families. The levels of 17 soil PAHs were monitored over 14 mo. The size of soil microbial populations of PAH degraders was also monitored. Planting significantly enhanced the dissipation rates of all PAHs within the first 7 mo, but this effect was not significant after 14 mo. Although the extent of removal of lower-molecular-weight PAHs was similar for planted and unplanted control soils after 14 mo, the total mass of five- and six-ring PAHs removed was significantly greater in planted soils at the 7- and 14-mo sampling points. Poaceae (grasses) were the most effective of the families tested, and perennial ryegrass was the most effective species; after 14 mo, soils planted with perennial ryegrass contained 30% of the initial total PAH concentration (compared with 51% of the initial concentrations in unplanted control soil). Although the presence of some plant species led to higher populations of PAH degraders, there was no correlation across plant species between PAH dissipation and the size of the PAH-degrading population. Research is needed to understand differences among plant families for stimulating PAH dissipation.

Probe measurements and numerical model predictions of evolving size distributions in premixed flames

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Filippo, A.; Sgro, L.A.; Lanzuolo, G.

2009-09-15

Particle size distributions (PSDs), measured with a dilution probe and a Differential Mobility Analyzer (DMA), and numerical predictions of these PSDs, based on a model that includes only coagulation or alternatively inception and coagulation, are compared to investigate particle growth processes and possible sampling artifacts in the post-flame region of a C/O = 0.65 premixed laminar ethylene-air flame. Inputs to the numerical model are the PSD measured early in the flame (the initial condition for the aerosol population) and the temperature profile measured along the flame's axial centerline. The measured PSDs are initially unimodal, with a modal mobility diameter ofmore » 2.2 nm, and become bimodal later in the post-flame region. The smaller mode is best predicted with a size-dependent coagulation model, which allows some fraction of the smallest particles to escape collisions without resulting in coalescence or coagulation through the size-dependent coagulation efficiency ({gamma}{sub SD}). Instead, when {gamma} = 1 and the coagulation rate is equal to the collision rate for all particles regardless of their size, the coagulation model significantly under predicts the number concentration of both modes and over predicts the size of the largest particles in the distribution compared to the measured size distributions at various heights above the burner. The coagulation ({gamma}{sub SD}) model alone is unable to reproduce well the larger particle mode (mode II). Combining persistent nucleation with size-dependent coagulation brings the predicted PSDs to within experimental error of the measurements, which seems to suggest that surface growth processes are relatively insignificant in these flames. Shifting measured PSDs a few mm closer to the burner surface, generally adopted to correct for probe perturbations, does not produce a better matching between the experimental and the numerical results. (author)« less

Local adaptation and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata).

PubMed

Torres-Dowdall, Julián; Handelsman, Corey A; Reznick, David N; Ghalambor, Cameron K

2012-11-01

Divergent selection pressures across environments can result in phenotypic differentiation that is due to local adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, or both. Trinidadian guppies exhibit local adaptation to the presence or absence of predators, but the degree to which predator-induced plasticity contributes to population differentiation is less clear. We conducted common garden experiments on guppies obtained from two drainages containing populations adapted to high- and low-predation environments. We reared full-siblings from all populations in treatments simulating the presumed ancestral (predator cues present) and derived (predator cues absent) conditions and measured water column use, head morphology, and size at maturity. When reared in presence of predator cues, all populations had phenotypes that were typical of a high-predation ecotype. However, when reared in the absence of predator cues, guppies from high- and low-predation regimes differed in head morphology and size at maturity; the qualitative nature of these differences corresponded to those that characterize adaptive phenotypes in high- versus low-predation environments. Thus, divergence in plasticity is due to phenotypic differences between high- and low-predation populations when reared in the absence of predator cues. These results suggest that plasticity might initially play an important role during colonization of novel environments, and then evolve as a by-product of adaptation to the derived environment. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The Strength of Selection against Neanderthal Introgression

PubMed Central

Juric, Ivan

2016-01-01

Hybridization between humans and Neanderthals has resulted in a low level of Neanderthal ancestry scattered across the genomes of many modern-day humans. After hybridization, on average, selection appears to have removed Neanderthal alleles from the human population. Quantifying the strength and causes of this selection against Neanderthal ancestry is key to understanding our relationship to Neanderthals and, more broadly, how populations remain distinct after secondary contact. Here, we develop a novel method for estimating the genome-wide average strength of selection and the density of selected sites using estimates of Neanderthal allele frequency along the genomes of modern-day humans. We confirm that East Asians had somewhat higher initial levels of Neanderthal ancestry than Europeans even after accounting for selection. We find that the bulk of purifying selection against Neanderthal ancestry is best understood as acting on many weakly deleterious alleles. We propose that the majority of these alleles were effectively neutral—and segregating at high frequency—in Neanderthals, but became selected against after entering human populations of much larger effective size. While individually of small effect, these alleles potentially imposed a heavy genetic load on the early-generation human–Neanderthal hybrids. This work suggests that differences in effective population size may play a far more important role in shaping levels of introgression than previously thought. PMID:27824859

Effective population size of korean populations.

PubMed

Park, Leeyoung

2014-12-01

Recently, new methods have been developed for estimating the current and recent changes in effective population sizes. Based on the methods, the effective population sizes of Korean populations were estimated using data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project. The overall changes in the population sizes of the total populations were similar to CHB (Han Chinese in Beijing, China) and JPT (Japanese in Tokyo, Japan) of the HapMap project. There were no differences in past changes in population sizes with a comparison between an urban area and a rural area. Age-dependent current and recent effective population sizes represent the modern history of Korean populations, including the effects of World War II, the Korean War, and urbanization. The oldest age group showed that the population growth of Koreans had already been substantial at least since the end of the 19th century.

Estimating the size of hidden populations using respondent-driven sampling data: Case examples from Morocco

PubMed Central

Johnston, Lisa G; McLaughlin, Katherine R; Rhilani, Houssine El; Latifi, Amina; Toufik, Abdalla; Bennani, Aziza; Alami, Kamal; Elomari, Boutaina; Handcock, Mark S

2015-01-01

Background Respondent-driven sampling is used worldwide to estimate the population prevalence of characteristics such as HIV/AIDS and associated risk factors in hard-to-reach populations. Estimating the total size of these populations is of great interest to national and international organizations, however reliable measures of population size often do not exist. Methods Successive Sampling-Population Size Estimation (SS-PSE) along with network size imputation allows population size estimates to be made without relying on separate studies or additional data (as in network scale-up, multiplier and capture-recapture methods), which may be biased. Results Ten population size estimates were calculated for people who inject drugs, female sex workers, men who have sex with other men, and migrants from sub-Sahara Africa in six different cities in Morocco. SS-PSE estimates fell within or very close to the likely values provided by experts and the estimates from previous studies using other methods. Conclusions SS-PSE is an effective method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations that leverages important information within respondent-driven sampling studies. The addition of a network size imputation method helps to smooth network sizes allowing for more accurate results. However, caution should be used particularly when there is reason to believe that clustered subgroups may exist within the population of interest or when the sample size is small in relation to the population. PMID:26258908

Projecting the success of plant restoration with population viability analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bell, T.J.; Bowles, M.L.; McEachern, A.K.; Brigham, C.A.; Schwartz, M.W.

2003-01-01

Conserving viable populations of plant species requires that they have high probabilities of long-term persistence within natural habitats, such as a chance of extinction in 100 years of less than 5% (Menges 1991, 1998; Brown 1994; Pavlik 1994; Chap. 1, this Vol.). For endangered and threatened species that have been severely reduces in range and whose habitats have been fragmented, important species conservation strategies may include augmenting existing populations or restoring new viable populations (Bowles and Whelan 1994; Chap. 2, this Vol.). Restoration objectives may include increasing population numbers to reduce extinction probability, deterministic manipulations to develop a staged cohort structure, or more complex restoration of a desired genetic structure to allow outcrossing or increase effective population size (DeMauro 1993, 1994; Bowles et al. 1993, 1998; Pavlik 1994; Knapp and Dyer 1998; Chap. 2, this Vol.). These efforts may require translocation of propagules from existing (in situ) populations, or from ex situ botanic gardens or seed storage facilities (Falk et al. 1996; Guerrant and Pavlik 1998; Chap. 2, this Vol.). Population viability analysis (PVA) can provide a critical foundation for plant restoration, as it models demographic projections used to evaluate the probability of population persistence and links plant life history with restoration strategies. It is unknown how well artificially created populations will meet demographic modeling requirements (e.g., due to artificial cohort transitions) and few, if any, PVAs have been applied to restorations. To guide application of PVA to restored populations and to illustrate potential difficulties, we examine effects of planting different life stages, model initial population sizes needed to achieve population viability, and compare demographic characteristics between natural and restored populations. We develop and compare plant population restoration viability analysis (PRVA) case studies of two plant species listed in the USA for which federal recovery planning calls for population restoration: Cirsium pitcheri, a short-lived semelparous herb, and Asclepias meadii, a long-lived iteroparous herb.

Connectivity of Tiger (Panthera tigris) Populations in the Human-Influenced Forest Mosaic of Central India

PubMed Central

Joshi, Aditya; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Mondol, Samrat; Edgaonkar, Advait; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2013-01-01

Today, most wild tigers live in small, isolated Protected Areas within human dominated landscapes in the Indian subcontinent. Future survival of tigers depends on increasing local population size, as well as maintaining connectivity between populations. While significant conservation effort has been invested in increasing tiger population size, few initiatives have focused on landscape-level connectivity and on understanding the effect different landscape elements have on maintaining connectivity. We combined individual-based genetic and landscape ecology approaches to address this issue in six protected areas with varying tiger densities and separation in the Central Indian tiger landscape. We non-invasively sampled 55 tigers from different protected areas within this landscape. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian genetic assignment tests indicate long-range tiger dispersal (on the order of 650 km) between protected areas. Further geo-spatial analyses revealed that tiger connectivity was affected by landscape elements such as human settlements, road density and host-population tiger density, but not by distance between populations. Our results elucidate the importance of landscape and habitat viability outside and between protected areas and provide a quantitative approach to test functionality of tiger corridors. We suggest future management strategies aim to minimize urban expansion between protected areas to maximize tiger connectivity. Achieving this goal in the context of ongoing urbanization and need to sustain current economic growth exerts enormous pressure on the remaining tiger habitats and emerges as a big challenge to conserve wild tigers in the Indian subcontinent. PMID:24223132

Connectivity of tiger (Panthera tigris) populations in the human-influenced forest mosaic of Central India.

PubMed

Joshi, Aditya; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Mondol, Samrat; Edgaonkar, Advait; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2013-01-01

Today, most wild tigers live in small, isolated Protected Areas within human dominated landscapes in the Indian subcontinent. Future survival of tigers depends on increasing local population size, as well as maintaining connectivity between populations. While significant conservation effort has been invested in increasing tiger population size, few initiatives have focused on landscape-level connectivity and on understanding the effect different landscape elements have on maintaining connectivity. We combined individual-based genetic and landscape ecology approaches to address this issue in six protected areas with varying tiger densities and separation in the Central Indian tiger landscape. We non-invasively sampled 55 tigers from different protected areas within this landscape. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian genetic assignment tests indicate long-range tiger dispersal (on the order of 650 km) between protected areas. Further geo-spatial analyses revealed that tiger connectivity was affected by landscape elements such as human settlements, road density and host-population tiger density, but not by distance between populations. Our results elucidate the importance of landscape and habitat viability outside and between protected areas and provide a quantitative approach to test functionality of tiger corridors. We suggest future management strategies aim to minimize urban expansion between protected areas to maximize tiger connectivity. Achieving this goal in the context of ongoing urbanization and need to sustain current economic growth exerts enormous pressure on the remaining tiger habitats and emerges as a big challenge to conserve wild tigers in the Indian subcontinent.

DNA analysis of ancient dogs of the Americas: identifying possible founding haplotypes and reconstructing population histories.

PubMed

Witt, Kelsey E; Judd, Kathleen; Kitchen, Andrew; Grier, Colin; Kohler, Timothy A; Ortman, Scott G; Kemp, Brian M; Malhi, Ripan S

2015-02-01

As dogs have traveled with humans to every continent, they can potentially serve as an excellent proxy when studying human migration history. Past genetic studies into the origins of Native American dogs have used portions of the hypervariable region (HVR) of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) to indicate that prior to European contact the dogs of Native Americans originated in Eurasia. In this study, we summarize past DNA studies of both humans and dogs to discuss their population histories in the Americas. We then sequenced a portion of the mtDNA HVR of 42 pre-Columbian dogs from three sites located in Illinois, coastal British Columbia, and Colorado, and identify four novel dog mtDNA haplotypes. Next, we analyzed a dataset comprised of all available ancient dog sequences from the Americas to infer the pre-Columbian population history of dogs in the Americas. Interestingly, we found low levels of genetic diversity for some populations consistent with the possibility of deliberate breeding practices. Furthermore, we identified multiple putative founding haplotypes in addition to dog haplotypes that closely resemble those of wolves, suggesting admixture with North American wolves or perhaps a second domestication of canids in the Americas. Notably, initial effective population size estimates suggest at least 1000 female dogs likely existed in the Americas at the time of the first known canid burial, and that population size increased gradually over time before stabilizing roughly 1200 years before present. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An ecocultural model predicts Neanderthal extinction through competition with modern humans.

PubMed

Gilpin, William; Feldman, Marcus W; Aoki, Kenichi

2016-02-23

Archaeologists argue that the replacement of Neanderthals by modern humans was driven by interspecific competition due to a difference in culture level. To assess the cogency of this argument, we construct and analyze an interspecific cultural competition model based on the Lotka-Volterra model, which is widely used in ecology, but which incorporates the culture level of a species as a variable interacting with population size. We investigate the conditions under which a difference in culture level between cognitively equivalent species, or alternatively a difference in underlying learning ability, may produce competitive exclusion of a comparatively (although not absolutely) large local Neanderthal population by an initially smaller modern human population. We find, in particular, that this competitive exclusion is more likely to occur when population growth occurs on a shorter timescale than cultural change, or when the competition coefficients of the Lotka-Volterra model depend on the difference in the culture levels of the interacting species.

A study on the trinucleotide repeat associated with Huntington`s disease in the Chinese

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bing-wen Soong; Jih-tsuu Wang

1994-09-01

Analysis of the polymorphic (CAG)n repeat in the hungingtin gene in the chinese confirmed the presence of an expanded repeat on all Huntington`s disease chromosomes. Measurement of the specific CAG repeat sequence in 34 HD chromosomes from 15 unrelated families and 190 control chromosomes from the Chinese population showed a range from 9 to 29 repeats in normal subjects and 40 to 58 in affected subjects. The size distributions of normal and affected alleles did not overlap. A clear correlation bewteen early onset of symptoms and very high repeat number was seen, but the spread of the age-at-onset in themore » major repeat range producing characteristic HD it too wide to be of diagnostic value. There was also variability in the transmitted repeat size for both sexes in the HD size range. Maternal HD alleles showed a moderate instability with a preponderance of size decrease, while paternal HD alleles had a tendency to increase in repeat size on transmission, the degree of which appeared proportional to the initial size.« less

Evolution of Size and Chemical Composition of Copper Concentrate Particles Oxidized Under Simulated Flash Smelting Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Tello, Manuel; Parra-Sánchez, Víctor R.; Sánchez-Corrales, Víctor M.; Gómez-Álvarez, Agustín; Brown-Bojórquez, Francisco; Parra-Figueroa, Roberto A.; Balladares-Varela, Eduardo R.; Araneda-Hernández, Eugenia A.

2018-04-01

An experimental study was conducted to elucidate the evolution of size and chemical composition of La Caridad copper concentrate particles during oxidation under simulated flash smelting conditions. Input variables tested included particle size and oxygen concentration in the process gas. The response variables included the size distributions, chemical composition, and morphology of the reacted particles at seven locations along a laboratory reactor. Particles with initial size < 45 µm contained mostly chalcopyrite, they increased their mean size and decreased the amount of dust in the population during oxidation. This was explained by a reaction path involving rapid melting followed by collision and coalescence of reacting droplets during flight. Particles with sizes > 45 µm contained varying amounts of chalcopyrite and pyrite, and tended to either maintain or decrease their mean size upon oxidation. When size reduction was observed, dust was produced because of fragmentation, and the particles showed no evidence of collisions during flight. The main oxidation products detected in the particles consisted of matte, cuprospinel, and magnetite. A plot of the mean size divided by the mean size in the feed against the fraction of sulfur eliminated generalized the experimental data so far reported in the literature, and helped identify the reaction path followed by the particles.

Determining size and dispersion of minimum viable populations for land management planning and species conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmkuhl, John F.

1984-03-01

The concept of minimum populations of wildlife and plants has only recently been discussed in the literature. Population genetics has emerged as a basic underlying criterion for determining minimum population size. This paper presents a genetic framework and procedure for determining minimum viable population size and dispersion strategies in the context of multiple-use land management planning. A procedure is presented for determining minimum population size based on maintenance of genetic heterozygosity and reduction of inbreeding. A minimum effective population size ( N e ) of 50 breeding animals is taken from the literature as the minimum shortterm size to keep inbreeding below 1% per generation. Steps in the procedure adjust N e to account for variance in progeny number, unequal sex ratios, overlapping generations, population fluctuations, and period of habitat/population constraint. The result is an approximate census number that falls within a range of effective population size of 50 500 individuals. This population range defines the time range of short- to long-term population fitness and evolutionary potential. The length of the term is a relative function of the species generation time. Two population dispersion strategies are proposed: core population and dispersed population.

Reproductive success in varying light environments: direct and indirect effects of light on plants and pollinators.

PubMed

Kilkenny, Francis F; Galloway, Laura F

2008-03-01

Plant populations often exist in spatially heterogeneous environments. Light level can directly affect plant reproductive success through resource availability or by altering pollinator behavior. It can also indirectly influence reproductive success by determining floral display size which may in turn influence pollinator attraction. We evaluated direct and indirect effects of light availability and measured phenotypic selection on phenological traits that may enhance pollen receipt in the insect-pollinated herb Campanulastrum americanum. In a natural population, plants in the sun had larger displays and received 7 times more visits than plants in the shade. Using experimental arrays to separate the direct effects of irradiance on insects from their response to display size, we found more visits to plants in the sun than in the shade, but no association between number of visits each flower received and display size. Plants in the sun were not pollen limited but pollen-augmented shade flowers produced 50% more seeds than open-pollinated flowers. Phenological traits, which may influence pollen receipt, were not under direct selection in the sun. However, earlier initiation and a longer duration of flowering were favored in the shade, which may enhance visitation in this pollen-limited habitat.

Predicting free-space occupancy on novel artificial structures by an invasive intertidal barnacle using a removal experiment.

PubMed

Bracewell, Sally A; Robinson, Leonie A; Firth, Louise B; Knights, Antony M

2013-01-01

Artificial structures can create novel habitat in the marine environment that has been associated with the spread of invasive species. They are often located in areas of high disturbance and can vary significantly in the area of free space provided for settlement of marine organisms. Whilst correlation between the amount of free space available and recruitment success has been shown in populations of several marine benthic organisms, there has been relatively little focus on invasive species, a group with the potential to reproduce in vast numbers and colonise habitats rapidly. Invasion success following different scales of disturbance was examined in the invasive acorn barnacle, Austrominiusmodestus, on a unique art installation located in Liverpool Bay. Population growth and recruitment success were examined by comparing recruitment rates within disturbance clearings of 4 different sizes and by contrasting population development with early recruitment rates over a 10 week period. Disturbed areas were rapidly recolonised and monocultures of A. modestus formed within 6 weeks. The size of patch created during disturbance had no effect on the rate of recruitment, while a linear relationship between recruit density and patch size was observed. Density-dependent processes mediated initial high recruitment resulting in population stability after 8-10 weeks, but densities continued to greatly exceed those reported in natural habitats. Given that artificial structures are likely to continue to proliferate in light of climate change projections, free-space is likely to become more available more frequently in the future supporting the expansion of fast-colonising species.

Plasticity in reproduction and growth among 52 range-wide populations of a Mediterranean conifer: adaptive responses to environmental stress.

PubMed

Santos-Del-Blanco, L; Bonser, S P; Valladares, F; Chambel, M R; Climent, J

2013-09-01

A plastic response towards enhanced reproduction is expected in stressful environments, but it is assumed to trade off against vegetative growth and efficiency in the use of available resources deployed in reproduction [reproductive efficiency (RE)]. Evidence supporting this expectation is scarce for plants, particularly for long-lived species. Forest trees such as Mediterranean pines provide ideal models to study the adaptive value of allocation to reproduction vs. vegetative growth given their among-population differentiation for adaptive traits and their remarkable capacity to cope with dry and low-fertility environments. We studied 52 range-wide Pinus halepensis populations planted into two environmentally contrasting sites during their initial reproductive stage. We investigated the effect of site, population and their interaction on vegetative growth, threshold size for female reproduction, reproductive-vegetative size relationships and RE. We quantified correlations among traits and environmental variables to identify allocation trade-offs and ecotypic trends. Genetic variation for plasticity was high for vegetative growth, whereas it was nonsignificant for reproduction. Size-corrected reproduction was enhanced in the more stressful site supporting the expectation for adverse conditions to elicit plastic responses in reproductive allometry. However, RE was unrelated with early reproductive investment. Our results followed theoretical predictions and support that phenotypic plasticity for reproduction is adaptive under stressful environments. Considering expectations of increased drought in the Mediterranean, we hypothesize that phenotypic plasticity together with natural selection on reproductive traits will play a relevant role in the future adaptation of forest tree species. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Context matters: sexual signaling loss in digital organisms

PubMed Central

Weigel, Emily G; Testa, Nicholas D; Peer, Alex; Garnett, Sara C

2015-01-01

Sexual signals are important in attracting and choosing mates; however, these signals and their associated preferences are often costly and frequently lost. Despite the prevalence of signaling system loss in many taxa, the factors leading to signal loss remain poorly understood. Here, we test the hypothesis that complexity in signal loss scenarios is due to the context-dependent nature of the many factors affecting signal loss itself. Using the Avida digital life platform, we evolved 50 replicates of ∼250 lineages, each with a unique combination of parameters, including whether signaling is obligate or facultative; genetic linkage between signaling and receiving genes; population size; and strength of preference for signals. Each of these factors ostensibly plays a crucial role in signal loss, but was found to do so only under specific conditions. Under obligate signaling, genetic linkage, but not population size, influenced signal loss; under facultative signaling, genetic linkage does not have significant influence. Somewhat surprisingly, only a total loss of preference in the obligate signaling populations led to total signal loss, indicating that even a modest amount of preference is enough to maintain signaling systems. Strength of preference proved to be the strongest single force preventing signal loss, as it consistently overcame the potential effects of drift within our study. Our findings suggest that signaling loss is often dependent on not just preference for signals, population size, and genetic linkage, but also whether signals are required to initiate mating. These data provide an understanding of the factors (and their interactions) that may facilitate the maintenance of sexual signals. PMID:26380700

Particle Size Reduction in Geophysical Granular Flows: The Role of Rock Fragmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchi, G.; Sklar, L. S.

2016-12-01

Particle size reduction in geophysical granular flows is caused by abrasion and fragmentation, and can affect transport dynamics by altering the particle size distribution. While the Sternberg equation is commonly used to predict the mean abrasion rate in the fluvial environment, and can also be applied to geophysical granular flows, predicting the evolution of the particle size distribution requires a better understanding the controls on the rate of fragmentation and the size distribution of resulting particle fragments. To address this knowledge gap we are using single-particle free-fall experiments to test for the influence of particle size, impact velocity, and rock properties on fragmentation and abrasion rates. Rock types tested include granodiorite, basalt, and serpentinite. Initial particle masses and drop heights range from 20 to 1000 grams and 0.1 to 3.0 meters respectively. Preliminary results of free-fall experiments suggest that the probability of fragmentation varies as a power function of kinetic energy on impact. The resulting size distributions of rock fragments can be collapsed by normalizing by initial particle mass, and can be fit with a generalized Pareto distribution. We apply the free-fall results to understand the evolution of granodiorite particle-size distributions in granular flow experiments using rotating drums ranging in diameter from 0.2 to 4.0 meters. In the drums, we find that the rates of silt production by abrasion and gravel production by fragmentation scale with drum size. To compare these rates with free-fall results we estimate the particle impact frequency and velocity. We then use population balance equations to model the evolution of particle size distributions due to the combined effects of abrasion and fragmentation. Finally, we use the free-fall and drum experimental results to model particle size evolution in Inyo Creek, a steep, debris-flow dominated catchment, and compare model results to field measurements.

Population dynamics of the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), in northern China: the effects of migration, cropping patterns and climate.

PubMed

Zhu, Liuhong; Li, Zhenyu; Zhang, Shufa; Xu, Baoyun; Zhang, Youjun; Zalucki, Myron P; Wu, Qingjun; Yin, Xianhui

2018-02-08

The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), is the most widely distributed pest of Brassica vegetables. Control of P. xylostella has relied on insecticides and it has developed resistance to most insecticides. Although research has clarified the resistance status of P. xylostella and the mechanisms of its resistance in northern China, little work has been conducted on long-term population dynamics in the key vegetable-growing areas of the region. We reviewed and summarized the history of P. xylostella field management practices in northern China (Haidian, Changping, Xuanhua and Zhangbei). Moths were caught in pheromone traps throughout the cropping season and P. xylostella phenology and the general trends in abundance were analysed using DYMEX modelling software. The initial input in the spring determined population size in all years. The seasonal phenology and variation in abundance in most years and sites were simulated, suggesting that the suitable climate creates the conditions for population outbreaks, and growers' actual management level (spraying and crop hygiene) influenced population abundance. Based on climate and using the timing of the initial peak in pheromone trap captures as a biofix, the timing of emergence of the next generation can be forecast, and more effective scouting and regional management strategies against this pest can be developed. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.

Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of the Rare and Endangered Plant Species Pulsatilla patens (L.) Mill in East Central Europe.

PubMed

Szczecińska, Monika; Sramko, Gabor; Wołosz, Katarzyna; Sawicki, Jakub

2016-01-01

Pulsatilla patens s.s. is a one of the most endangered plant species in Europe. The present range of this species in Europe is highly fragmented and the size of the populations has been dramatically reduced in the past 50 years. The rapid disappearance of P. patens localities in Europe has prompted the European Commission to initiate active protection of this critically endangered species. The aim of this study was to estimate the degree and distribution of genetic diversity within European populations of this endangered species. We screened 29 populations of P. patens using a set of six microsatellite primers. The results of our study indicate that the analyzed populations are characterized by low levels of genetic diversity (Ho = 0.005) and very high levels of inbreeding (FIS = 0.90). These results suggest that genetic erosion could be partially responsible for the lower fitness in smaller populations of this species. Private allelic richness was very low, being as low as 0.00 for most populations. Average genetic diversity over loci and mean number of alleles in P. patens populations were significantly correlated with population size, suggesting severe genetic drift. The results of AMOVA point to higher levels of variation within populations than between populations.The results of Structure and PCoA analyses suggest that the genetic structure of the studied P. patens populations fall into three clusters corresponding to geographical regions. The most isolated populations (mostly from Romania) formed a separate group with a homogeneous gene pool located at the southern, steppic part of the distribution range. Baltic, mostly Polish, populations fall into two genetic groups which were not fully compatible with their geographic distribution.Our results indicate the serious genetic depauperation of P. patens in the western part of its range, even hinting at an ongoing extinction vortex. Therefore, special conservation attention is required to maintain the populations of this highly endangered species of European Community interest.

Rural print media portrayal of secondhand smoke and smoke-free policy.

PubMed

Helme, Donald W; Rayens, Mary Kay; Kercsmar, Sarah E; Adkins, Sarah M; Amundsen, Shelby J; Lee, Erin; Riker, Carol A; Hahn, Ellen J

2012-11-01

The purpose of this article is to describe how the print media portrays secondhand smoke and smoke-free policy in rural communities. Baseline print media clips from an ongoing 5-year study of smoke-free policy development in 40 rural communities were analyzed. The authors hypothesized that community population size would be positively associated with media favorability toward smoke-free policy. Conversely, pounds of tobacco produced and adult smoking prevalence would be negatively associated with media favorability. There was a positive correlation between population size and percentage of articles favorable toward smoke-free policy. The authors did not find a correlation between adult smoking or tobacco produced and media favorability toward smoke-free policy, but we did find a positive relationship between tobacco produced and percentage of pro-tobacco articles and a negative relationship between adult smoking prevalence and percentage of articles about health/comfort. Implications for targeting pro-health media in rural communities as well as policy-based initiatives for tobacco control are discussed.

Nesting success of Northern Pintails on the coastal Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.

1996-01-01

We studied nesting chronology and success of Northern Pintails (Anas acuta) on the coastal Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska during the summers of 1991-1993. We found a total of 795 nests during three annual searches of a 27.4 km2 area. Minimum nest density averaged 9.67 nests per km2. Nesting success varied among years and ranged from 43.12% in 1991 to 10.74% in 1993 (average 23.95%). Most nest loss was the result of predation and tidal flooding. Daily nest survival probability declined with nest initiation date in all three years and also varied with nest age in 1992. Clutch size averaged 7.63 ± 0.067 (SE) eggs per nest and was larger than reported for other populations of Northern Pintails. Clutch size declined during the 44-47 day nesting interval at a greater rate than reported for other populations of Northern Pintails. We conclude that sub-arctic and prairie nesting Northern Pintails have similar reproductive potentials.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruens, R. C.; Kroupa, P.; Fellhauer, M.

In the lenticular galaxy NGC 1023 a third population of globular clusters (GCs), called faint fuzzies (FFs), was discovered next to the blue and red GC populations by Larsen and Brodie. While these FFs have colors comparable to the red population, the new population is fainter, larger (R{sub eff}>7 pc) and, most importantly, shows clear signs of corotation with the galactic disk of NGC 1023. We present N-body simulations verifying the hypothesis that these disk-associated FFs are related to the young massive cluster complexes (CCs) observed by Bastian et al. in M51, who discovered a mass-radius relation for these CCs.more » Our models have an initial configuration based on the observations from M51 and are placed on various orbits in a galactic potential derived for NGC 1023. All computations end up with a stable object containing 10%-60% of the initial CC mass after an integration time of 5 Gyr. A conversion to visual magnitudes demonstrates that the resulting objects cover exactly the observed range for FFs. Moreover, the simulated objects show projected half-mass radii between 3.6 and 13.4 pc, in good agreement with the observed FF sizes. We conclude that objects like the young massive CCs in M51 are likely progenitors of the FFs observed in NGC 1023.« less

Reduced fecundity in small populations of the rare plant Gentianopsis ciliate (Gentianaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Matthies, D.

2004-01-01

Habitat destruction is the main cause for the biodiversity crisis. Surviving populations are often fragmented, i.e., small and isolated from each other. Reproduction of plants in small populations is often reduced, and this has been attributed to inbreeding depression, reduced attractiveness for pollinators, and reduced habitat quality in small populations. Here we present data on the effects of fragmentation on the rare, self-compatible perennial herb Gentianopsis ciliata (Gentianaceae), a species with very small and presumably well-dispersed seeds. We studied the relationship between population size, plant size, and the number of flowers produced in 63 populations from 1996-1998. In one of the years, leaf and flower size and the number of seeds produced per fruit was studied in a subset of 25 populations. Plant size, flower size, and the number of seeds per fruit and per plant increased with population size, whereas leaf length and the number of flowers per plant did not. The effects of population size on reproduction and on flower size remained significant if the effects were adjusted for differences in plant size, indicating that they could not be explained by differences in habitat quality. The strongly reduced reproduction in small populations may be due to pollination limitation, while the reduced flower size could indicate genetic effects.

Reduced fecundity in small populations of the rare plant Gentianopsis ciliate (Gentianaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.

1983-01-01

Habitat destruction is the main cause for the biodiversity crisis. Surviving populations are often fragmented, i.e., small and isolated from each other. Reproduction of plants in small populations is often reduced, and this has been attributed to inbreeding depression, reduced attractiveness for pollinators, and reduced habitat quality in small populations. Here we present data on the effects of fragmentation on the rare, self-compatible perennial herb Gentianopsis ciliata (Gentianaceae), a species with very small and presumably well-dispersed seeds. We studied the relationship between population size, plant size, and the number of flowers produced in 63 populations from 1996-1998. In one of the years, leaf and flower size and the number of seeds produced per fruit was studied in a subset of 25 populations. Plant size, flower size, and the number of seeds per fruit and per plant increased with population size, whereas leaf length and the number of flowers per plant did not. The effects of population size on reproduction and on flower size remained significant if the effects were adjusted for differences in plant size, indicating that they could not be explained by differences in habitat quality. The strongly reduced reproduction in small populations may be due to pollination limitation, while the reduced flower size could indicate genetic effects.

Does source population size affect performance in new environments?

PubMed Central

Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

2014-01-01

Small populations are predicted to perform poorly relative to large populations when experiencing environmental change. To explore this prediction in nature, data from reciprocal transplant, common garden, and translocation studies were compared meta-analytically. We contrasted changes in performance resulting from transplantation to new environments among individuals originating from different sized source populations from plants and salmonids. We then evaluated the effect of source population size on performance in natural common garden environments and the relationship between population size and habitat quality. In ‘home-away’ contrasts, large populations exhibited reduced performance in new environments. In common gardens, the effect of source population size on performance was inconsistent across life-history stages (LHS) and environments. When transplanted to the same set of new environments, small populations either performed equally well or better than large populations, depending on life stage. Conversely, large populations outperformed small populations within native environments, but only at later life stages. Population size was not associated with habitat quality. Several factors might explain the negative association between source population size and performance in new environments: (i) stronger local adaptation in large populations and antagonistic pleiotropy, (ii) the maintenance of genetic variation in small populations, and (iii) potential environmental differences between large and small populations. PMID:25469166

Population demographics and genetic diversity in remnant and translocated populations of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Cronin, M.A.; Scribner, K.T.

1999-01-01

The effects of small population size on genetic diversity and subsequent population recovery are theoretically predicted, but few empirical data are available to describe those relations. We use data from four remnant and three translocated sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations to examine relations among magnitude and duration of minimum population size, population growth rates, and genetic variation. Metochondrial (mt)DNA haplotype diversity was correlated with the number of years at minimum population size (r = -0.741, p = 0.038) and minimum population size (r = 0.709, p = 0.054). We found no relation between population growth and haplotype diversity, altough growth was significantly greater in translocated than in remnant populations. Haplotype diversity in populations established from two sources was higher than in a population established from a single source and was higher than in the respective source populations. Haplotype frequencies in translocated populations of founding sizes of 4 and 28 differed from expected, indicating genetic drift and differential reproduction between source populations, whereas haplotype frequencies in a translocated population with a founding size of 150 did not. Relations between population demographics and genetic characteristics suggest that genetic sampling of source and translocated populations can provide valuable inferences about translocations.

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Parental investment and the optimization of human family size

PubMed Central

Lawson, David W.; Mace, Ruth

2011-01-01

Human reproductive behaviour is marked by exceptional variation at the population and individual level. Human behavioural ecologists propose adaptive hypotheses to explain this variation as shifting phenotypic optima in relation to local socioecological niches. Here we review evidence that variation in fertility (offspring number), in both traditional and modern industrialized populations, represents optimization of the life-history trade-off between reproductive rate and parental investment. While a reliance on correlational methods suggests the true costs of sibling resource competition are often poorly estimated, a range of anthropological and demographic studies confirm that parents balance family size against offspring success. Evidence of optimization is less forthcoming. Declines in fertility associated with modernization are particularly difficult to reconcile with adaptive models, because fertility limitation fails to enhance offspring reproductive success. Yet, considering alternative measures, we show that modern low fertility confers many advantages on offspring, which are probably transmitted to future generations. Evidence from populations that have undergone or initiated demographic transition indicate that these rewards to fertility limitation fall selectively on relatively wealthy individuals. The adaptive significance of modern reproductive behaviour remains difficult to evaluate, but may be best understood in response to rising investment costs of rearing socially and economically competitive offspring. PMID:21199838

Geriatrics in Brazil: a big country with big opportunities.

PubMed

Garcez-Leme, Luiz E; Leme, Mariana Deckers; Espino, David V

2005-11-01

Brazil has approximately 180 million inhabitants, of whom 15.2 million are aged 60 and older and 1.9 million are aged 80 and older. By 2025, the Brazilian elderly population is expected to grow to more than 32 million. Brazil has many problems related to its geographic and population size. Great distances between major cities, marked cultural and racial heterogeneity between the various geographic regions, high poverty levels, and decreasing family size all combine to put pressure on the medical and social services that can be made available to the elder population. Less than 500 Brazilian physicians are certified as geriatricians, translating into one geriatrician for every 37,000 elderly Brazilians. Beside 15 geriatric medicine residencies a larger number of fellowship programs exist, and these programs are in high demand, with more than 20 candidates per position, indicating new opportunities for growth in elder care. In addition, geriatric initiatives such as the annual elder vaccination program and the elder statute, recently approved by the Brazilian Congress, indicate that geriatric care in Brazil is entering a new era of growth and development. Although the challenges remain great, there are opportunities for Brazilian geriatrics and gerontology.

Genetic structure and conservation of Mountain Lions in the South-Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest

PubMed Central

Castilho, Camila S.; Marins-Sá, Luiz G.; Benedet, Rodrigo C.; Freitas, Thales R.O.

2012-01-01

The Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest, one of the most endangered ecosystems worldwide, is also among the most important hotspots as regards biodiversity. Through intensive logging, the initial area has been reduced to around 12% of its original size. In this study we investigated the genetic variability and structure of the mountain lion, Puma concolor. Using 18 microsatellite loci we analyzed evidence of allele dropout, null alleles and stuttering, calculated the number of allele/locus, PIC, observed and expected heterozygosity, linkage disequilibrium, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, FIS, effective population size and genetic structure (MICROCHECKER, CERVUS, GENEPOP, FSTAT, ARLEQUIN, ONESAMP, LDNe, PCAGEN, GENECLASS software), we also determine whether there was evidence of a bottleneck (HYBRIDLAB, BOTTLENECK software) that might influence the future viability of the population in south Brazil. 106 alleles were identified, with the number of alleles/locus ranging from 2 to 11. Mean observed heterozygosity, mean number of alleles and polymorphism information content were 0.609, 5.89, and 0.6255, respectively. This population presented evidence of a recent bottleneck and loss of genetic variation. Persistent regional poaching constitutes an increasing in the extinction risk. PMID:22481876

A Geographic Cline of Skull and Brain Morphology among Individuals of European Ancestry

PubMed Central

Bakken, Trygve E.; Dale, Anders M.; Schork, Nicholas J.

2011-01-01

Background Human skull and brain morphology are strongly influenced by genetic factors, and skull size and shape vary worldwide. However, the relationship between specific brain morphology and genetically-determined ancestry is largely unknown. Methods We used two independent data sets to characterize variation in skull and brain morphology among individuals of European ancestry. The first data set is a historical sample of 1,170 male skulls with 37 shape measurements drawn from 27 European populations. The second data set includes 626 North American individuals of European ancestry participating in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) with magnetic resonance imaging, height and weight, neurological diagnosis, and genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data. Results We found that both skull and brain morphological variation exhibit a population-genetic fingerprint among individuals of European ancestry. This fingerprint shows a Northwest to Southeast gradient, is independent of body size, and involves frontotemporal cortical regions. Conclusion Our findings are consistent with prior evidence for gene flow in Europe due to historical population movements and indicate that genetic background should be considered in studies seeking to identify genes involved in human cortical development and neuropsychiatric disease. PMID:21849792

A cat's tale: the impact of genetic restoration on Florida panther population dynamics and persistence.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Onorato, David P; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K

2013-05-01

1. Genetic restoration has been suggested as a management tool for mitigating detrimental effects of inbreeding depression in small, inbred populations, but the demographic mechanisms underlying population-level responses to genetic restoration remain poorly understood. 2. We studied the dynamics and persistence of the endangered Florida panther Puma concolor coryi population and evaluated the potential influence of genetic restoration on population growth and persistence parameters. As part of the genetic restoration programme, eight female Texas pumas P. c. stanleyana were released into Florida panther habitat in southern Florida in 1995. 3. The overall asymptotic population growth rate (λ) was 1.04 (5th and 95th percentiles: 0.95-1.14), suggesting an increase in the panther population of approximately 4% per year. Considering the effects of environmental and demographic stochasticities and density-dependence, the probability that the population will fall below 10 panthers within 100 years was 0.072 (0-0.606). 4. Our results suggest that the population would have declined at 5% per year (λ = 0.95; 0.83-1.08) in the absence of genetic restoration. Retrospective life table response experiment analysis revealed that the positive effect of genetic restoration on survival of kittens was primarily responsible for the substantial growth of the panther population that would otherwise have been declining. 5. For comparative purposes, we also estimated probability of quasi-extinction under two scenarios - implementation of genetic restoration and no genetic restoration initiative - using the estimated abundance of panthers in 1995, the year genetic restoration was initiated. Assuming no density-dependence, the probability that the panther population would fall below 10 panthers by 2010 was 0.098 (0.002-0.332) for the restoration scenario and 0.445 (0.032-0.944) for the no restoration scenario, providing further evidence that the panther population would have faced a substantially higher risk of extinction if the genetic restoration initiative had not been implemented. 6. Our results, along with those reporting increases in population size and improvements in biomedical correlates of inbreeding depression, provide strong evidence that genetic restoration substantially contributed to the observed increases in the Florida panther population. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

The human genetic history of the Americas: the final frontier.

PubMed

O'Rourke, Dennis H; Raff, Jennifer A

2010-02-23

The Americas, the last continents to be entered by modern humans, were colonized during the late Pleistocene via a land bridge across what is now the Bering strait. However, the timing and nature of the initial colonization events remain contentious. The Asian origin of the earliest Americans has been amply established by numerous classical marker studies of the mid-twentieth century. More recently, mtDNA sequences, Y-chromosome and autosomal marker studies have provided a higher level of resolution in confirming the Asian origin of indigenous Americans and provided more precise time estimates for the emergence of Native Americans. But these data raise many additional questions regarding source populations, number and size of colonizing groups and the points of entry to the Americas. Rapidly accumulating molecular data from populations throughout the Americas, increased use of demographic models to test alternative colonization scenarios, and evaluation of the concordance of archaeological, paleoenvironmental and genetic data provide optimism for a fuller understanding of the initial colonization of the Americas. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Waiting time disparities in breast cancer diagnosis and treatment: a population-based study in France.

PubMed

Molinié, F; Leux, C; Delafosse, P; Ayrault-Piault, S; Arveux, P; Woronoff, A S; Guizard, A V; Velten, M; Ganry, O; Bara, S; Daubisse-Marliac, L; Tretarre, B

2013-10-01

Waiting times are key indicators of a health's system performance, but are not routinely available in France. We studied waiting times for diagnosis and treatment according to patients' characteristics, tumours' characteristics and medical management options in a sample of 1494 breast cancers recorded in population-based registries. The median waiting time from the first imaging detection to the treatment initiation was 34 days. Older age, co-morbidity, smaller size of tumour, detection by organised screening, biopsy, increasing number of specimens removed, multidisciplinary consulting meetings and surgery as initial treatment were related to increased waiting times in multivariate models. Many of these factors were related to good practices guidelines. However, the strong influence of organised screening programme and the disparity of waiting times according to geographical areas were of concern. Better scheduling of diagnostic tests and treatment propositions should improve waiting times in the management of breast cancer in France. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Demographic response to rural restructuring and counterurbanisation in South Australia, 1981-1991.

PubMed

Smailes, P J

1996-09-01

"Using South Australia as a case study, this paper seeks to trace and demonstrate two processes (counterurbanisation and rural restructuring) whose effects overlap to differentiate and characterise the population geography of...two zones, separated by a transition along the outer fringe of Adelaide's urban field.... In the demographic core zone [rural restructuring] has been partly offset by continued counterurbanisation, resulting in demographic mixing and rural dilution. The 1981-91 population growth in rural communities is shown to be more a function of population density at the outset of the period than of initial population size. Demographic growth...is shown to conform to a simple unidimensional scale, allowing the production of a clear, easily interpretable typology of rural demographic change with few non-conforming statistical areas. At a local level within individual rural communities, demographic decline is shown to be accompanied by increased concentration of the population into small towns, while demographic growth is associated with deconcentration." excerpt

Colorectal Cancer Initial Diagnosis: Screening Colonoscopy, Diagnostic Colonoscopy, or Emergent Surgery, and Tumor Stage and Size at Initial Presentation.

PubMed

Moreno, Courtney C; Mittal, Pardeep K; Sullivan, Patrick S; Rutherford, Robin; Staley, Charles A; Cardona, Kenneth; Hawk, Natalyn N; Dixon, W Thomas; Kitajima, Hiroumi D; Kang, Jian; Small, William C; Oshinski, John; Votaw, John R

2016-03-01

Rates of colorectal cancer screening are improving but remain suboptimal. Limited information is available regarding how patients are diagnosed with colorectal cancer (for example, asymptomatic screened patients or diagnostic workup because of the presence of symptoms). The purpose of this investigation was to determine how patients were diagnosed with colorectal cancer (screening colonoscopy, diagnostic colonoscopy, or emergent surgery) and tumor stage and size at diagnosis. Adults evaluated between 2011 and 2014 with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer were identified. Clinical notes, endoscopy reports, surgical reports, radiology reports, and pathology reports were reviewed. Sex, race, ethnicity, age at the time of initial diagnosis, method of diagnosis, presenting symptom(s), and primary tumor size and stage at diagnosis were recorded. Colorectal cancer screening history was also recorded. The study population was 54% male (265 of 492) with a mean age of 58.9 years (range, 25-93 years). Initial tissue diagnosis was established at the time of screening colonoscopy in 10.7%, diagnostic colonoscopy in 79.2%, and during emergent surgery in 7.1%. Cancers diagnosed at the time of screening colonoscopy were more likely to be stage 1 than cancers diagnosed at the time of diagnostic colonoscopy or emergent surgery (38.5%, 7.2%, and 0%, respectively). Median tumor size was 3.0 cm for the screening colonoscopy group, 4.6 cm for the diagnostic colonoscopy group, and 5.0 cm for the emergent surgery group. At least 31% of patients diagnosed at the time of screening colonoscopy, 19% of patients diagnosed at the time of diagnostic colonoscopy, and 26% of patients diagnosed at the time of emergent surgery had never undergone a screening colonoscopy. Nearly 90% of colorectal cancer patients were diagnosed after development of symptoms and had more advanced disease than asymptomatic screening patients. Colorectal cancer outcomes will be improved by improving rates of colorectal cancer screening. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Large-Eddy Simulation to Explore Microphysical Precursor Conditions for Precipitation Initiation in Marine Stratocumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandler, H.; Mechem, D. B.; Fridlind, A. M.; Ackerman, A. S.

2016-12-01

Although the classical model of how a population of cloud droplets grows to precipitation-sized drops through the condensation and coalescence processes is well accepted, it does not fully address the history of how nascent precipitation drops come about in warm clouds. Precipitation initiation is influenced by the properties of the cloud drop distribution and in bulk large-eddy simulation (LES) models is parameterized by autoconversion. Double-moment formulations of autoconversion rate generally weight cloud water content qc more than cloud drop concentration Nc (e.g., qc2.47Nc-1.79, Khairoutdinov and Kogan 2000) and precipitation rate scalings derived from field campaigns suggest a dominance of thermodynamic over aerosol factors. However, the mechanisms that drive precipitation initiation in any given cloud are still uncertain. From the perspective of autoconversion, do the regions where precipitation onset occurs experience large liquid water content values (large qc), or are they anomalously clean (small Nc)? Recent laboratory measurements suggest that fluctuations in the supersaturation field may also play a role in precipitation initiation. This study explores the nature of precursor conditions to precipitation onset within marine stratocumulus clouds. We apply an LES model with size-resolving microphysics to a case of marine stratocumulus over the eastern north Atlantic. Backward trajectories originating from regions of precipitation initiation are calculated from the time-evolving LES flow fields to examine the history of fluid parcels that ultimately contain embryonic precipitation.

On the absence of a correlation between population size and 'toolkit size' in ethnographic hunter-gatherers.

PubMed

Aoki, Kenichi

2018-04-05

In apparent contradiction to the theoretically predicted effect of population size on the quality/quantity of material culture, statistical analyses on ethnographic hunter-gatherers have shown an absence of correlation between population size and toolkit size. This has sparked a heated, if sometimes tangential, debate as to the usefulness of the theoretical models and as to what modes of cultural transmission humans are capable of and hunter-gatherers rely on. I review the directly relevant theoretical literature and argue that much of the confusion is caused by a mismatch between the theoretical variable and the empirical observable. I then confirm that a model incorporating the appropriate variable does predict a positive association between population size and toolkit size for random oblique, vertical, best-of- K , conformist, anticonformist, success bias and one-to-many cultural transmission, with the caveat that for all populations sampled, the population size has remained constant and toolkit size has reached the equilibrium for this population size. Finally, I suggest three theoretical scenarios, two of them involving variable population size, that would attenuate or eliminate this association and hence help to explain the empirical absence of correlation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Feedback amplification loop drives malignant growth in epithelial tissues.

PubMed

Muzzopappa, Mariana; Murcia, Lada; Milán, Marco

2017-08-29

Interactions between cells bearing oncogenic mutations and the surrounding microenvironment, and cooperation between clonally distinct cell populations, can contribute to the growth and malignancy of epithelial tumors. The genetic techniques available in Drosophila have contributed to identify important roles of the TNF-α ligand Eiger and mitogenic molecules in mediating these interactions during the early steps of tumor formation. Here we unravel the existence of a tumor-intrinsic-and microenvironment-independent-self-reinforcement mechanism that drives tumor initiation and growth in an Eiger-independent manner. This mechanism relies on cell interactions between two functionally distinct cell populations, and we present evidence that these cell populations are not necessarily genetically different. Tumor-specific and cell-autonomous activation of the tumorigenic JNK stress-activated pathway drives the expression of secreted signaling molecules and growth factors to delaminating cells, which nonautonomously promote proliferative growth of the partially transformed epithelial tissue. We present evidence that cross-feeding interactions between delaminating and nondelaminating cells increase each other's sizes and that these interactions can explain the unlimited growth potential of these tumors. Our results will open avenues toward our molecular understanding of those social cell interactions with a relevant function in tumor initiation in humans.

Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

2015-09-01

How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

PubMed

Deutsch, Madeline B

2016-06-01

An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities.

Pediatric ureteroscopic management of intrarenal calculi.

PubMed

Tanaka, Stacy T; Makari, John H; Pope, John C; Adams, Mark C; Brock, John W; Thomas, John C

2008-11-01

Data addressing ureteroscopic management of intrarenal calculi in prepubertal children are limited. We reviewed our experience from January 2002 through December 2007. We retrospectively reviewed ureteroscopic procedures for intrarenal calculi in children younger than 14 years. Stone-free status was determined with postoperative imaging. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to assess the influence of preoperative factors on initial stone-free status and the need for additional procedures. Intrarenal calculi were managed ureteroscopically in 52 kidneys in 50 children with a mean age of 7.9 years (range 1.2 to 13.6). Mean stone size was 8 mm (range 1 to 16). Stone-free rate after a single ureteroscopic procedure was 50% (25 of 50 patients) on initial postoperative imaging and 58% (29 of 50) with extended followup. Initial stone-free status was dependent on preoperative stone size (p = 0.005) but not stone location. Additional stone procedures were required in 18 upper tracts. Younger patient age (p = 0.04) and larger preoperative stone size (p = 0.002) were associated with the need for additional procedures. Additional procedures were required in more than half of the stones 6 mm or larger but in no stone smaller than 6 mm. Ureteroscopy is a safe method for the treatment of intrarenal calculi in the prepubertal population. Our ureteroscopic stone-free rate for intrarenal stones is lower than that reported for ureteral stones. Parents should be informed that additional procedures will likely be required, especially in younger patients and those with stones larger than 6 mm.

Optimal marker-assisted selection to increase the effective size of small populations.

PubMed

Wang, J

2001-02-01

An approach to the optimal utilization of marker and pedigree information in minimizing the rates of inbreeding and genetic drift at the average locus of the genome (not just the marked loci) in a small diploid population is proposed, and its efficiency is investigated by stochastic simulations. The approach is based on estimating the expected pedigree of each chromosome by using marker and individual pedigree information and minimizing the average coancestry of selected chromosomes by quadratic integer programming. It is shown that the approach is much more effective and much less computer demanding in implementation than previous ones. For pigs with 10 offspring per mother genotyped for two markers (each with four alleles at equal initial frequency) per chromosome of 100 cM, the approach can increase the average effective size for the whole genome by approximately 40 and 55% if mating ratios (the number of females mated with a male) are 3 and 12, respectively, compared with the corresponding values obtained by optimizing between-family selection using pedigree information only. The efficiency of the marker-assisted selection method increases with increasing amount of marker information (number of markers per chromosome, heterozygosity per marker) and family size, but decreases with increasing genome size. For less prolific species, the approach is still effective if the mating ratio is large so that a high marker-assisted selection pressure on the rarer sex can be maintained.

Combinatorial optimization problem solution based on improved genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Peng

2017-08-01

Traveling salesman problem (TSP) is a classic combinatorial optimization problem. It is a simplified form of many complex problems. In the process of study and research, it is understood that the parameters that affect the performance of genetic algorithm mainly include the quality of initial population, the population size, and crossover probability and mutation probability values. As a result, an improved genetic algorithm for solving TSP problems is put forward. The population is graded according to individual similarity, and different operations are performed to different levels of individuals. In addition, elitist retention strategy is adopted at each level, and the crossover operator and mutation operator are improved. Several experiments are designed to verify the feasibility of the algorithm. Through the experimental results analysis, it is proved that the improved algorithm can improve the accuracy and efficiency of the solution.

Geostatistical analysis of disease data: accounting for spatial support and population density in the isopleth mapping of cancer mortality risk using area-to-point Poisson kriging

PubMed Central

Goovaerts, Pierre

2006-01-01

Background Geostatistical techniques that account for spatially varying population sizes and spatial patterns in the filtering of choropleth maps of cancer mortality were recently developed. Their implementation was facilitated by the initial assumption that all geographical units are the same size and shape, which allowed the use of geographic centroids in semivariogram estimation and kriging. Another implicit assumption was that the population at risk is uniformly distributed within each unit. This paper presents a generalization of Poisson kriging whereby the size and shape of administrative units, as well as the population density, is incorporated into the filtering of noisy mortality rates and the creation of isopleth risk maps. An innovative procedure to infer the point-support semivariogram of the risk from aggregated rates (i.e. areal data) is also proposed. Results The novel methodology is applied to age-adjusted lung and cervix cancer mortality rates recorded for white females in two contrasted county geographies: 1) state of Indiana that consists of 92 counties of fairly similar size and shape, and 2) four states in the Western US (Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah) forming a set of 118 counties that are vastly different geographical units. Area-to-point (ATP) Poisson kriging produces risk surfaces that are less smooth than the maps created by a naïve point kriging of empirical Bayesian smoothed rates. The coherence constraint of ATP kriging also ensures that the population-weighted average of risk estimates within each geographical unit equals the areal data for this unit. Simulation studies showed that the new approach yields more accurate predictions and confidence intervals than point kriging of areal data where all counties are simply collapsed into their respective polygon centroids. Its benefit over point kriging increases as the county geography becomes more heterogeneous. Conclusion A major limitation of choropleth maps is the common biased visual perception that larger rural and sparsely populated areas are of greater importance. The approach presented in this paper allows the continuous mapping of mortality risk, while accounting locally for population density and areal data through the coherence constraint. This form of Poisson kriging will facilitate the analysis of relationships between health data and putative covariates that are typically measured over different spatial supports. PMID:17137504

Long-term dynamics of adaptive evolution in a globally important phytoplankton species to ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Schlüter, Lothar; Lohbeck, Kai T.; Gröger, Joachim P.; Riebesell, Ulf; Reusch, Thorsten B. H.

2016-01-01

Marine phytoplankton may adapt to ocean change, such as acidification or warming, because of their large population sizes and short generation times. Long-term adaptation to novel environments is a dynamic process, and phenotypic change can take place thousands of generations after exposure to novel conditions. We conducted a long-term evolution experiment (4 years = 2100 generations), starting with a single clone of the abundant and widespread coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi exposed to three different CO2 levels simulating ocean acidification (OA). Growth rates as a proxy for Darwinian fitness increased only moderately under both levels of OA [+3.4% and +4.8%, respectively, at 1100 and 2200 μatm partial pressure of CO2 (Pco2)] relative to control treatments (ambient CO2, 400 μatm). Long-term adaptation to OA was complex, and initial phenotypic responses of ecologically important traits were later reverted. The biogeochemically important trait of calcification, in particular, that had initially been restored within the first year of evolution was later reduced to levels lower than the performance of nonadapted populations under OA. Calcification was not constitutively lost but returned to control treatment levels when high CO2–adapted isolates were transferred back to present-day control CO2 conditions. Selection under elevated CO2 exacerbated a general decrease of cell sizes under long-term laboratory evolution. Our results show that phytoplankton may evolve complex phenotypic plasticity that can affect biogeochemically important traits, such as calcification. Adaptive evolution may play out over longer time scales (>1 year) in an unforeseen way under future ocean conditions that cannot be predicted from initial adaptation responses. PMID:27419227

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Altitudinal variation in age and body size in Yunnan pond frog (Pelophylax pleuraden).

PubMed

Lou, Shang Ling; Jin, Long; Liu, Yan Hong; Mi, Zhi Ping; Tao, Gang; Tang, Yu Mei; Liao, Wen Bo

2012-08-01

Large-scale systematic patterns of body size are a basic concern of evolutionary biology. Identifying body size variation along altitudinal gradients may help us to understand the evolution of life history of animals. In this study, we investigated altitudinal variation in body size, age and growth rate in Chinese endemic frog, Pelophylax pleuraden. Data sampled from five populations covering an altitudinal span of 1413 to 1935 m in Sichuan province revealed that body size from five populations did not co-vary with altitudes, not following Bergmann's rule. Average adult SVL differed significantly among populations in males, but not in females. For both sexes, average adult age differed significantly among populations. Post-metamorphic growth rate did not co-vary with altitude, and females grew faster than males in all populations. When controlling the effect of age, body size did not differ among populations in both sexes, suggesting that age did not affect variation in body size among populations. For females, there may be other factors, such as the allocation of energy between growth and reproduction, that eliminated the effect of age on body size. To our minds, the major reason of body size variation among populations in male frogs may be related to individual longevity. Our findings also suggest that factors other than age and growth rate may contribute to size differences among populations.

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

a Predator-Prey Model Based on the Fully Parallel Cellular Automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Mingfeng; Ruan, Hongbo; Yu, Changliang

We presented a predator-prey lattice model containing moveable wolves and sheep, which are characterized by Penna double bit strings. Sexual reproduction and child-care strategies are considered. To implement this model in an efficient way, we build a fully parallel Cellular Automata based on a new definition of the neighborhood. We show the roles played by the initial densities of the populations, the mutation rate and the linear size of the lattice in the evolution of this model.

Strategic Planning for Irwin Army Community Hospital: The Assessment and Implementation of Services, in Order to Meet Fort Riley’s Increasing Population

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-07-05

surgery. IACH is the only GPRMC hospital of its size to have a LASIK eye-laser. Prior to procurement of the eye-laser, Soldiers were sent to other...Customer satisfaction • Access to care standards Technological • Increased ability to conduct more services o Lap-Band o Lasik o Orthopedics...productivity • Provider levels • Forecasting • Availability of • Flexibility specialties in the • Situational analysis network • Lasik initiative

How Suspicion Grows: Effects of Population Size on Cooperation

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

suspicious tit-for-tat TFT tit-for-tat TF2T tit-for-two-tats xiii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK xiv Executive Summary People in a group typically...theoretic model mathematically tractable, we restrict each individual to four strategies: tit-for-two-tats (TF2T), tit-for-tat ( TFT ), suspicious-tit...stranger, TF2T will begin by cooperation twice, TFT by cooperating once, and STFT by defecting once. After the initial moves, in each encounter, the

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Genome size differentiates co-occurring populations of the planktonic diatom Ditylum brightwellii (Bacillariophyta)

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Diatoms are one of the most species-rich groups of eukaryotic microbes known. Diatoms are also the only group of eukaryotic micro-algae with a diplontic life history, suggesting that the ancestral diatom switched to a life history dominated by a duplicated genome. A key mechanism of speciation among diatoms could be a propensity for additional stable genome duplications. Across eukaryotic taxa, genome size is directly correlated to cell size and inversely correlated to physiological rates. Differences in relative genome size, cell size, and acclimated growth rates were analyzed in isolates of the diatom Ditylum brightwellii. Ditylum brightwellii consists of two main populations with identical 18s rDNA sequences; one population is distributed globally at temperate latitudes and the second appears to be localized to the Pacific Northwest coast of the USA. These two populations co-occur within the Puget Sound estuary of WA, USA, although their peak abundances differ depending on local conditions. Results All isolates from the more regionally-localized population (population 2) possessed 1.94 ± 0.74 times the amount of DNA, grew more slowly, and were generally larger than isolates from the more globally distributed population (population 1). The ITS1 sequences, cell sizes, and genome sizes of isolates from New Zealand were the same as population 1 isolates from Puget Sound, but their growth rates were within the range of the slower-growing population 2 isolates. Importantly, the observed genome size difference between isolates from the two populations was stable regardless of time in culture or the changes in cell size that accompany the diatom life history. Conclusions The observed two-fold difference in genome size between the D. brightwellii populations suggests that whole genome duplication occurred within cells of population 1 ultimately giving rise to population 2 cells. The apparent regional localization of population 2 is consistent with a recent divergence between the populations, which are likely cryptic species. Genome size variation is known to occur in other diatom genera; we hypothesize that genome duplication may be an active and important mechanism of genetic and physiological diversification and speciation in diatoms. PMID:20044934

Coalescence of repelling colloidal droplets: a route to monodisperse populations.

PubMed

Roger, Kevin; Botet, Robert; Cabane, Bernard

2013-05-14

Populations of droplets or particles dispersed in a liquid may evolve through Brownian collisions, aggregation, and coalescence. We have found a set of conditions under which these populations evolve spontaneously toward a narrow size distribution. The experimental system consists of poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) nanodroplets dispersed in a solvent (acetone) + nonsolvent (water) mixture. These droplets carry electrical charges, located on the ionic end groups of the macromolecules. We used time-resolved small angle X-ray scattering to determine their size distribution. We find that the droplets grow through coalescence events: the average radius (R) increases logarithmically with elapsed time while the relative width σR/(R) of the distribution decreases as the inverse square root of (R). We interpret this evolution as resulting from coalescence events that are hindered by ionic repulsions between droplets. We generalize this evolution through a simulation of the Smoluchowski kinetic equation, with a kernel that takes into account the interactions between droplets. In the case of vanishing or attractive interactions, all droplet encounters lead to coalescence. The corresponding kernel leads to the well-known "self-preserving" particle distribution of the coalescence process, where σR/(R) increases to a plateau value. However, for droplets that interact through long-range ionic repulsions, "large + small" droplet encounters are more successful at coalescence than "large + large" encounters. We show that the corresponding kernel leads to a particular scaling of the droplet-size distribution-known as the "second-scaling law" in the theory of critical phenomena, where σR/(R) decreases as 1/√(R) and becomes independent of the initial distribution. We argue that this scaling explains the narrow size distributions of colloidal dispersions that have been synthesized through aggregation processes.

Strategies for success among OPOs: a study of three organ procurement organizations.

PubMed

Shafer, T J; Kappel, D F; Heinrichs, D F

1997-03-01

Productivity among organ procurement organizations varies widely in the US, and the pressure to determine critical success factors increases as the organ pool shrinks and managed care expands. This study compared three successful organ procurement organizations, identified commonalities among them in cost of doing business, and examined direct and indirect expenses, staffing, specialized requestor programs, and professional and public education programs. The three organ procurement organizations were chosen because of their performance in terms of donors per million population, complexity, and size. The following key indicators were compared and analyzed: annual operating budget, size and composition of staff, funds and resources invested in professional education versus public education, tissue recovery operations, results of minority initiatives, and employee compensation programs.

Adaptively resizing populations: Algorithm, analysis, and first results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Robert E.; Smuda, Ellen

1993-01-01

Deciding on an appropriate population size for a given Genetic Algorithm (GA) application can often be critical to the algorithm's success. Too small, and the GA can fall victim to sampling error, affecting the efficacy of its search. Too large, and the GA wastes computational resources. Although advice exists for sizing GA populations, much of this advice involves theoretical aspects that are not accessible to the novice user. An algorithm for adaptively resizing GA populations is suggested. This algorithm is based on recent theoretical developments that relate population size to schema fitness variance. The suggested algorithm is developed theoretically, and simulated with expected value equations. The algorithm is then tested on a problem where population sizing can mislead the GA. The work presented suggests that the population sizing algorithm may be a viable way to eliminate the population sizing decision from the application of GA's.

Population Fluctuation Promotes Cooperation in Networks

PubMed Central

Miller, Steve; Knowles, Joshua

2015-01-01

We consider the problem of explaining the emergence and evolution of cooperation in dynamic network-structured populations. Building on seminal work by Poncela et al., which shows how cooperation (in one-shot prisoner’s dilemma) is supported in growing populations by an evolutionary preferential attachment (EPA) model, we investigate the effect of fluctuations in the population size. We find that a fluctuating model – based on repeated population growth and truncation – is more robust than Poncela et al.’s in that cooperation flourishes for a wider variety of initial conditions. In terms of both the temptation to defect, and the types of strategies present in the founder network, the fluctuating population is found to lead more securely to cooperation. Further, we find that this model will also support the emergence of cooperation from pre-existing non-cooperative random networks. This model, like Poncela et al.’s, does not require agents to have memory, recognition of other agents, or other cognitive abilities, and so may suggest a more general explanation of the emergence of cooperation in early evolutionary transitions, than mechanisms such as kin selection, direct and indirect reciprocity. PMID:26061705

Prospects for Genomic Selection in Cassava Breeding.

PubMed

Wolfe, Marnin D; Del Carpio, Dunia Pino; Alabi, Olumide; Ezenwaka, Lydia C; Ikeogu, Ugochukwu N; Kayondo, Ismail S; Lozano, Roberto; Okeke, Uche G; Ozimati, Alfred A; Williams, Esuma; Egesi, Chiedozie; Kawuki, Robert S; Kulakow, Peter; Rabbi, Ismail Y; Jannink, Jean-Luc

2017-11-01

Cassava ( Crantz) is a clonally propagated staple food crop in the tropics. Genomic selection (GS) has been implemented at three breeding institutions in Africa to reduce cycle times. Initial studies provided promising estimates of predictive abilities. Here, we expand on previous analyses by assessing the accuracy of seven prediction models for seven traits in three prediction scenarios: cross-validation within populations, cross-population prediction and cross-generation prediction. We also evaluated the impact of increasing the training population (TP) size by phenotyping progenies selected either at random or with a genetic algorithm. Cross-validation results were mostly consistent across programs, with nonadditive models predicting of 10% better on average. Cross-population accuracy was generally low (mean = 0.18) but prediction of cassava mosaic disease increased up to 57% in one Nigerian population when data from another related population were combined. Accuracy across generations was poorer than within-generation accuracy, as expected, but accuracy for dry matter content and mosaic disease severity should be sufficient for rapid-cycling GS. Selection of a prediction model made some difference across generations, but increasing TP size was more important. With a genetic algorithm, selection of one-third of progeny could achieve an accuracy equivalent to phenotyping all progeny. We are in the early stages of GS for this crop but the results are promising for some traits. General guidelines that are emerging are that TPs need to continue to grow but phenotyping can be done on a cleverly selected subset of individuals, reducing the overall phenotyping burden. Copyright © 2017 Crop Science Society of America.

What makes a species common? No evidence of density-dependent recruitment or mortality of the sea urchin Diadema antillarum after the 1983-1984 mass mortality.

PubMed

Levitan, Don R; Edmunds, Peter J; Levitan, Keeha E

2014-05-01

A potential consequence of individuals compensating for density-dependent processes is that rare or infrequent events can produce profound and long-term shifts in species abundance. In 1983-1984 a mass mortality event reduced the numbers of the abundant sea urchin Diadema antillarum by 95-99% throughout the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Following this event, the abundance of macroalgae increased and the few surviving D. antillarum responded by increasing in body size and fecundity. These initial observations suggested that populations of D. antillarum could recover rapidly following release from food limitation. In contrast, published studies of field manipulations indicate that this species had traits making it resistant to density-dependent effects on offspring production and adult mortality; this evidence raises the possibility that density-independent processes might keep populations at a diminished level. Decadal-scale (1983-2011) monitoring of recruitment, mortality, population density and size structure of D. antillarum from St John, US Virgin Islands, indicates that population density has remained relatively stable and more than an order of magnitude lower than that before the mortality event of 1983-1984. We detected no evidence of density-dependent mortality or recruitment since this mortality event. In this location, model estimates of equilibrium population density, assuming density-independent processes and based on parameters generated over the first decade following the mortality event, accurately predict the low population density 20 years later (2011). We find no evidence to support the notion that this historically dominant species will rebound from this temporally brief, but spatially widespread, perturbation.

Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2005-01-01

Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

Two Antarctic penguin genomes reveal insights into their evolutionary history and molecular changes related to the Antarctic environment.

PubMed

Li, Cai; Zhang, Yong; Li, Jianwen; Kong, Lesheng; Hu, Haofu; Pan, Hailin; Xu, Luohao; Deng, Yuan; Li, Qiye; Jin, Lijun; Yu, Hao; Chen, Yan; Liu, Binghang; Yang, Linfeng; Liu, Shiping; Zhang, Yan; Lang, Yongshan; Xia, Jinquan; He, Weiming; Shi, Qiong; Subramanian, Sankar; Millar, Craig D; Meader, Stephen; Rands, Chris M; Fujita, Matthew K; Greenwold, Matthew J; Castoe, Todd A; Pollock, David D; Gu, Wanjun; Nam, Kiwoong; Ellegren, Hans; Ho, Simon Yw; Burt, David W; Ponting, Chris P; Jarvis, Erich D; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Yang, Huanming; Wang, Jian; Lambert, David M; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Guojie

2014-01-01

Penguins are flightless aquatic birds widely distributed in the Southern Hemisphere. The distinctive morphological and physiological features of penguins allow them to live an aquatic life, and some of them have successfully adapted to the hostile environments in Antarctica. To study the phylogenetic and population history of penguins and the molecular basis of their adaptations to Antarctica, we sequenced the genomes of the two Antarctic dwelling penguin species, the Adélie penguin [Pygoscelis adeliae] and emperor penguin [Aptenodytes forsteri]. Phylogenetic dating suggests that early penguins arose ~60 million years ago, coinciding with a period of global warming. Analysis of effective population sizes reveals that the two penguin species experienced population expansions from ~1 million years ago to ~100 thousand years ago, but responded differently to the climatic cooling of the last glacial period. Comparative genomic analyses with other available avian genomes identified molecular changes in genes related to epidermal structure, phototransduction, lipid metabolism, and forelimb morphology. Our sequencing and initial analyses of the first two penguin genomes provide insights into the timing of penguin origin, fluctuations in effective population sizes of the two penguin species over the past 10 million years, and the potential associations between these biological patterns and global climate change. The molecular changes compared with other avian genomes reflect both shared and diverse adaptations of the two penguin species to the Antarctic environment.

Assessment of survival rates and reproductive success of captive bred milky stork released at Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary, Perak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faiq, H.; Safie, M. Y.; Shukor, M. N.

2016-11-01

A release programme of captive bred Milky Storks was initiated to increase population size in the wild. Population size depends on the survival rate and breeding success of individuals in the population. Among factors that affect survival rate and breeding success are population age class and sex ratio. The main objective of this study was to estimate the survival rate of Mycteria cinerea that has been released in Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary since 2007. The estimation of the survival rate was done across gender and age class. This study was conducted in 2012 at Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary. The presence of M. cinerea individuals were recorded at the sanctuary and identified to background information, such as date of birth, gender and date of release. Females of M. cinerea were estimated to have a higher survival rate (30.0%) than male (16.7%). Across gender, each individual was assigned into 4 different age classes, namely less than 1 year, between 1 and 2 years, between 2 and 3 years, and more than 3 years. The survival rate of individuals less than 1 year was about 50%, between 1 and 2 years was 25%, between 2 and 3 years was 9.1%, and more than 3 years was 0%. This study was intended to facilitate future release programmeme on which gender and age class to emphasize.

Rapid population divergence in thermal reaction norms for an invading species: breaking the temperature-size rule.

PubMed

Kingsolver, J G; Massie, K R; Ragland, G J; Smith, M H

2007-05-01

The temperature-size rule is a common pattern of phenotypic plasticity in which higher temperature during development results in a smaller adult body size (i.e. a thermal reaction norm with negative slope). Examples and exceptions to the rule are known in multiple groups of organisms, but rapid population differentiation in the temperature-size rule has not been explored. Here we examine the genetic and parental contributions to population differentiation in thermal reaction norms for size, development time and survival in the Cabbage White Butterfly Pieris rapae, for two geographical populations that have likely diverged within the past 150 years. We used split-sibship experiments with two temperature treatments (warm and cool) for P. rapae from Chapel Hill, NC, and from Seattle, WA. Mixed-effect model analyses demonstrate significant genetic differences between NC and WA populations for adult size and for thermal reaction norms for size. Mean adult mass was 12-24% greater in NC than in WA populations for both temperature treatments; mean size was unaffected or decreased with temperature (the temperature-size rule) for the WA population, but size increased with temperature for the NC population. Our study shows that the temperature-size rule and related thermal reaction norms can evolve rapidly within species in natural field conditions. Rapid evolutionary divergence argues against the existence of a simple, general mechanistic constraint as the underlying cause of the temperature-size rule.

Mental Health Consequences of Childhood Physical Abuse in Chinese Populations: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Ip, Patrick; Wong, Rosa S; Li, Sophia L; Chan, Ko Ling; Ho, Frederick K; Chow, Chun-Bong

2016-12-01

Childhood physical abuse (CPA) can lead to adverse mental health outcomes in adulthood, but its potential impact on Chinese populations is still unclear. This meta-analysis is the first to examine the association between CPA and mental health outcomes in Chinese populations. Studies published before December 31, 2014 were identified from Embase, CINAHL, Scopus, PsycINFO, PubMed, and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure databases. Studies with data on the association between CPA and mental health outcomes from Chinese subjects were included. Twenty-four studies were initially identified but two were excluded because of poor quality. Two reviewers independently extracted data to generate summary effect sizes using a random-effects meta-analytic model. A priori subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate heterogeneity and bias in these studies. Our meta-analysis of 22 studies found a significant positive association between CPA and overall mental health outcomes among all Chinese subjects (pooled effect size: odds ratio [OR] = 2.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [1.87, 2.49]) and among community samples (pooled effect size: OR = 2.06, 95% CI [1.71, 2.48]). Based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision, diagnostic criteria, CPA was more strongly associated with Axis II (OR = 2.62, 95% CI [2.13, 3.22]) than Axis I disorders (OR = 1.85, 95% CI [1.58, 2.17]). The detrimental effects of CPA on mental health outcomes in Chinese populations were comparable to, if not more than, the West. Contrary to the Chinese belief that physical punishment is a safe way to discipline children, our findings highlight the potential harm to mental health and the need to change this parenting practice. © The Author(s) 2015.

High population density enhances recruitment and survival of a harvested coral reef fish.

PubMed

Wormald, Clare L; Steele, Mark A; Forrester, Graham E

2013-03-01

A negative relationship between population growth and population density (direct density dependence) is necessary for population regulation and is assumed in most models of harvested populations. Experimental tests for density dependence are lacking for large-bodied, harvested fish because of the difficulty of manipulating population density over large areas. We studied a harvested coral reef fish, Lutjanus apodus (schoolmaster snapper), using eight large, isolated natural reefs (0.4-1.6 ha) in the Bahamas as replicates. An initial observational test for density dependence was followed by a manipulation of population density. The manipulation weakened an association between density and shelter-providing habitat features and revealed a positive effect of population density on recruitment and survival (inverse density dependence), but no effect of density on somatic growth. The snappers on an individual reef were organized into a few shoals, and we hypothesize that large shoals on high-density reefs were less vulnerable to large piscivores (groupers and barracudas) than the small shoals on low-density reefs. Reductions in predation risk for individuals in large social groups are well documented, but because snapper shoals occupied reefs the size of small marine reserves, these ecological interactions may influence the outcome of management actions.

Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

PubMed

Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

2003-06-01

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

Determination of the optimal sample size for a clinical trial accounting for the population size.

PubMed

Stallard, Nigel; Miller, Frank; Day, Simon; Hee, Siew Wan; Madan, Jason; Zohar, Sarah; Posch, Martin

2017-07-01

The problem of choosing a sample size for a clinical trial is a very common one. In some settings, such as rare diseases or other small populations, the large sample sizes usually associated with the standard frequentist approach may be infeasible, suggesting that the sample size chosen should reflect the size of the population under consideration. Incorporation of the population size is possible in a decision-theoretic approach either explicitly by assuming that the population size is fixed and known, or implicitly through geometric discounting of the gain from future patients reflecting the expected population size. This paper develops such approaches. Building on previous work, an asymptotic expression is derived for the sample size for single and two-arm clinical trials in the general case of a clinical trial with a primary endpoint with a distribution of one parameter exponential family form that optimizes a utility function that quantifies the cost and gain per patient as a continuous function of this parameter. It is shown that as the size of the population, N, or expected size, N∗ in the case of geometric discounting, becomes large, the optimal trial size is O(N1/2) or O(N∗1/2). The sample size obtained from the asymptotic expression is also compared with the exact optimal sample size in examples with responses with Bernoulli and Poisson distributions, showing that the asymptotic approximations can also be reasonable in relatively small sample sizes. © 2016 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Phenotypic plasticity in clutch size regulation among populations of a potential invasive fruit fly from environments that vary in host heterogeneity and isolation.

PubMed

Aluja, M; Birke, A; Díaz-Fleischer, F; Rull, J

2018-05-21

Phenotypic plasticity is thought to evolve in response to environmental unpredictability and can shield genotypes from selection. However, selection can also act on plastic traits. Egg-laying behaviour, including clutch size regulation, is a plastic behavioural trait among tephritid fruit flies. We compared plasticity in clutch size regulation among females of Anastrepha ludens populations stemming from environments that differed in the degree of predictability in egg-laying opportunities. Clutch size regulation in response to hosts of different sizes was compared among flies from (a) a wild, highly isolated population, (b) a wild population that switches seasonally from a small wild host fruit that varies greatly in abundance to an abundant large-sized commercial host, and (c) a laboratory population. Flies from all three populations adjusted clutch number and size according to host size. However, flies from the heterogeneous wild environment were more plastic in adjusting clutch size than flies from agricultural settings that also laid fewer eggs; yet both populations were more plastic in adjusting clutch size in line with host size when compared with laboratory females. When wild and orchard females encountered the largest host, clutch size was extremely variable and egg regulation did not follow the same trend. Heterogeneity in host availability in space and time appears to be as important as seasonal variation in host size in maintaining plastic clutch size regulation behaviour. In stable environments, there was a clear reduction in the plasticity of these traits.

Semi-supervised learning for genomic prediction of novel traits with small reference populations: an application to residual feed intake in dairy cattle.

PubMed

Yao, Chen; Zhu, Xiaojin; Weigel, Kent A

2016-11-07

Genomic prediction for novel traits, which can be costly and labor-intensive to measure, is often hampered by low accuracy due to the limited size of the reference population. As an option to improve prediction accuracy, we introduced a semi-supervised learning strategy known as the self-training model, and applied this method to genomic prediction of residual feed intake (RFI) in dairy cattle. We describe a self-training model that is wrapped around a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, which enables it to use data from animals with and without measured phenotypes. Initially, a SVM model was trained using data from 792 animals with measured RFI phenotypes. Then, the resulting SVM was used to generate self-trained phenotypes for 3000 animals for which RFI measurements were not available. Finally, the SVM model was re-trained using data from up to 3792 animals, including those with measured and self-trained RFI phenotypes. Incorporation of additional animals with self-trained phenotypes enhanced the accuracy of genomic predictions compared to that of predictions that were derived from the subset of animals with measured phenotypes. The optimal ratio of animals with self-trained phenotypes to animals with measured phenotypes (2.5, 2.0, and 1.8) and the maximum increase achieved in prediction accuracy measured as the correlation between predicted and actual RFI phenotypes (5.9, 4.1, and 2.4%) decreased as the size of the initial training set (300, 400, and 500 animals with measured phenotypes) increased. The optimal number of animals with self-trained phenotypes may be smaller when prediction accuracy is measured as the mean squared error rather than the correlation between predicted and actual RFI phenotypes. Our results demonstrate that semi-supervised learning models that incorporate self-trained phenotypes can achieve genomic prediction accuracies that are comparable to those obtained with models using larger training sets that include only animals with measured phenotypes. Semi-supervised learning can be helpful for genomic prediction of novel traits, such as RFI, for which the size of reference population is limited, in particular, when the animals to be predicted and the animals in the reference population originate from the same herd-environment.

Homoplasy and mutation model at microsatellite loci and their consequences for population genetics analysis.

PubMed

Estoup, Arnaud; Jarne, Philippe; Cornuet, Jean-Marie

2002-09-01

Homoplasy has recently attracted the attention of population geneticists, as a consequence of the popularity of highly variable stepwise mutating markers such as microsatellites. Microsatellite alleles generally refer to DNA fragments of different size (electromorphs). Electromorphs are identical in state (i.e. have identical size), but are not necessarily identical by descent due to convergent mutation(s). Homoplasy occurring at microsatellites is thus referred to as size homoplasy. Using new analytical developments and computer simulations, we first evaluate the effect of the mutation rate, the mutation model, the effective population size and the time of divergence between populations on size homoplasy at the within and between population levels. We then review the few experimental studies that used various molecular techniques to detect size homoplasious events at some microsatellite loci. The relationship between this molecularly accessible size homoplasy size and the actual amount of size homoplasy is not trivial, the former being considerably influenced by the molecular structure of microsatellite core sequences. In a third section, we show that homoplasy at microsatellite electromorphs does not represent a significant problem for many types of population genetics analyses realized by molecular ecologists, the large amount of variability at microsatellite loci often compensating for their homoplasious evolution. The situations where size homoplasy may be more problematic involve high mutation rates and large population sizes together with strong allele size constraints.

A thought on the integration of poverty relief with family planning.

PubMed

Yang, K

1997-01-01

This article discusses the relationship between population growth and poverty in China, the issue of overpopulation in poor areas, and the need for programs that integrate population control with economic development. The number of Chinese living in poverty declined from about 250 million in 1978 to 80 million in 1993. In March 1994, the government initiated a poverty relief program that aimed to eliminate all poverty by 2001. By 1995, the number of poor declined to 65 million. The causes of poverty are numerous, but include overpopulation. Over the decades, demographic trends in poor areas reveal higher fertility, lower mortality, and higher growth. Poverty appears to be concentrated in 18 provinces and autonomous regions. Poor areas have higher rates of early marriage, early childbirth, and multiple children. Poor areas also have higher rates of disabilities and disease and lower levels of education. Poor areas have double the national percentage of illiterates. Many people living in poor areas are disadvantaged by poor transportation, remote locations, backward production methods, and a lack of a social security system. Scientific knowledge about contraception and quality child care are difficult to diffuse in poor areas. The size of the population denominator directly affects per capita income and per capita grain production. Increases in population put pressure on investment resources for production and development. A larger work force adds to the problem of unemployment. A large population size puts pressure on arable land. Poor areas need a better educated population. Sustainable development requires fertility decline. Integrated family planning programs popularize slogans such as "stabilize grain yield, increase income, and control population growth." Integrated programs have had variable success. Countermeasures must be taken to prevent the association of large families with wealth. Leadership is essential.

Model of unplanned smoking initiation of children and adolescents: an integrated stage model of smoking behavior.

PubMed

Kremers, S P J; Mudde, A N; De Vries, H

2004-05-01

Two lines of psychological research have attempted to spell out the stages of adolescent smoking initiation. The first has focused on behavioral stages of smoking initiation, while the second line emphasized motivational stages. A large international sample of European adolescents (N = 10,170, mean age = 13.3 years) was followed longitudinally. Self-reported motivational and behavioral stages of smoking initiation were integrated, leading to the development of the Model of Unplanned Smoking Initiation of Children and Adolescents (MUSICA). The MUSICA postulates that youngsters experiment with smoking while they are in an unmotivated state as regards their plans for smoking regularly in the future. More than 95% of the total population resided in one of the seven stages distinguished by MUSICA. The probability of starting to smoke regularly during the 12 months follow-up period increased with advanced stage assignment at baseline. Unique social cognitive predictors of stage progression from the various stages were identified, but effect sizes of predictors of transitions were small. The integration of motivational and behavioral dimensions improves our understanding of the process of smoking initiation. In contrast to current theories of smoking initiation, adolescent uptake of smoking behavior was found to be an unplanned action.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data.

PubMed

Jewett, Ethan M; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S

2016-11-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright-Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China.

PubMed

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution.

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China

PubMed Central

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution. PMID:28122050

De novo alloreactive memory CD8+ T cells develop following allogeneic challenge when CNI immunosuppression is delayed.

PubMed

Hart-Matyas, M; Gareau, A J; Hirsch, G M; Lee, T D G

2015-01-01

Allospecific memory T cells are a recognized threat to the maintenance of solid-organ transplants. Limited information exists regarding the development of alloreactive memory T cells when post-transplant immunosuppression is present. The clinical practice of delaying calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) initiation post-transplant may permit the development of a de novo allospecific memory population. We investigated the development of de novo allospecific memory CD8+ T cells following the introduction of CNI immunosuppression in a murine model using allogeneic cell priming. Recipient mice alloprimed with splenocytes from fully mismatched donors received cyclosporine (CyA), initiated at 0, 2, 6, or 10days post-prime. Splenocytes from recipients were analyzed by flow cytometry or enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for evidence of memory cell formation. Memory and effector CD8+ T cell development was prevented when CyA was initiated at 0day or 2days post-prime (p<0.001), but not 6days post-prime. Following a boost challenge, these memory CD8+ T cells were capable of producing a similarly sized population of secondary effectors as recipients not treated with CyA (p>0.05). Delaying CyA up to 6days or later post-prime permits the development of functional de novo allospecific memory CD8+ T cells. The development of this potentially detrimental T cell population in patients could be prevented by starting CNI immunosuppression early post-transplant. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Circumbinary planet formation in the Kepler-16 system. II. A toy model for in situ planet formation within a debris belt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meschiari, Stefano, E-mail: stefano@astro.as.utexas.edu

2014-07-20

Recent simulations have shown that the formation of planets in circumbinary configurations (such as those recently discovered by Kepler) is dramatically hindered at the planetesimal accretion stage. The combined action of the binary and the protoplanetary disk acts to raise impact velocities between kilometer-sized planetesimals beyond their destruction threshold, halting planet formation within at least 10 AU from the binary. It has been proposed that a primordial population of 'large' planetesimals (100 km or more in size), as produced by turbulent concentration mechanisms, would be able to bypass this bottleneck; however, it is not clear whether these processes are viablemore » in the highly perturbed circumbinary environments. We perform two-dimensional hydrodynamical and N-body simulations to show that kilometer-sized planetesimals and collisional debris can drift and be trapped in a belt close to the central binary. Within this belt, planetesimals could initially grow by accreting debris, ultimately becoming 'indestructible' seeds that can accrete other planetesimals in situ despite the large impact speeds. We find that large, indestructible planetesimals can be formed close to the central binary within 10{sup 5} yr, therefore showing that even a primordial population of 'small' planetesimals can feasibly form a planet.« less

Large Eddy Simulation including population dynamics model for polydisperse droplet evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aiyer, Aditya; Yang, Di; Chamecki, Marcelo; Meneveau, Charles

2017-11-01

Previous studies have shown that dispersion patterns of oil droplets in the ocean following a deep sea oil spill depend critically on droplet diameter. Hence predicting the evolution of the droplet size distribution is of critical importance for predicting macroscopic features of dispersion in the ocean. We adopt a population dynamics model of polydisperse droplet distributions for use in LES. We generalize a breakup model from Reynolds averaging approaches to LES in which the breakup is modeled as due to bombardment of droplets by turbulent eddies of various sizes. The breakage rate is expressed as an integral of a collision frequency times a breakage efficiency over all eddy sizes. An empirical fit to the integral is proposed in order to avoid having to recalculate the integral at every LES grid point and time step. The fit is tested by comparison with various stirred tank experiments. As a flow application for LES we consider a jet of bubbles and large droplets injected at the bottom of the tank. The advected velocity and concentration fields of the drops are described using an Eulerian approach. We study the change of the oil droplet distribution due to breakup caused by interaction of turbulence with the oil droplets. This research was made possible by a Grant from the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative.

Second look at the spread of epidemics on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenah, Eben; Robins, James M.

2007-09-01

In an important paper, Newman [Phys. Rev. E66, 016128 (2002)] claimed that a general network-based stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) epidemic model is isomorphic to a bond percolation model, where the bonds are the edges of the contact network and the bond occupation probability is equal to the marginal probability of transmission from an infected node to a susceptible neighbor. In this paper, we show that this isomorphism is incorrect and define a semidirected random network we call the epidemic percolation network that is exactly isomorphic to the SIR epidemic model in any finite population. In the limit of a large population, (i) the distribution of (self-limited) outbreak sizes is identical to the size distribution of (small) out-components, (ii) the epidemic threshold corresponds to the phase transition where a giant strongly connected component appears, (iii) the probability of a large epidemic is equal to the probability that an initial infection occurs in the giant in-component, and (iv) the relative final size of an epidemic is equal to the proportion of the network contained in the giant out-component. For the SIR model considered by Newman, we show that the epidemic percolation network predicts the same mean outbreak size below the epidemic threshold, the same epidemic threshold, and the same final size of an epidemic as the bond percolation model. However, the bond percolation model fails to predict the correct outbreak size distribution and probability of an epidemic when there is a nondegenerate infectious period distribution. We confirm our findings by comparing predictions from percolation networks and bond percolation models to the results of simulations. In the Appendix, we show that an isomorphism to an epidemic percolation network can be defined for any time-homogeneous stochastic SIR model.

Egg size and asymmetric sibling rivalry in red-winged blackbirds.

PubMed

Forbes, Scott; Wiebe, Mark

2010-06-01

How big to make an egg is a life history decision that in birds is made coincident with a series of other similar decisions (how many eggs to have, whether to fortify them with maternally derived hormones or immune system boosters, whether to hatch the eggs synchronously or asynchronously). Though within-population variation in egg size in birds has been well studied, its adaptive significance, if any, is unclear. Here we examine within-population variation in egg size in relation to asymmetric sibling rivalry in a 17-year study of red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus), an altricial songbird. Egg mass showed a twofold range of variation, with roughly 80% of the variation occurring across clutches. By commencing incubation before the clutch is complete, mothers create advantaged core and disadvantaged marginal elements within their brood. Previous work on this system has shown that sibling competition is asymmetric, and that core offspring enjoy priority access to food, and as a consequence show higher growth and lower mortality than marginal offspring. Here we examine the effect of initial egg size on nestling growth and survival in relation to these competitive asymmetries. Egg mass was strongly linked to hatchling mass, and remained significantly related to the mass of both core and marginal nestlings; the effect of egg size was stronger for core offspring early in the nestling period, but the disparity between core and marginal nestlings narrowed as they approached fledging age, and slower growing marginals fell victim to brood reduction. The effect of egg mass on survival differed dramatically between core and marginal nestlings. Egg mass was significantly related to the survival of marginal but not core nestlings: below average egg mass was associated primarily with very early mortality. Asymmetric sibling competition is clearly a strong determinant of the consequences of egg size variation.

New paradigms in type 2 immunity.

PubMed

Pulendran, Bali; Artis, David

2012-07-27

Nearly half of the world's population harbors helminth infections or suffers from allergic disorders. A common feature of this population is the so-called "type 2 immune response," which confers protection against helminths, but also promotes pathologic responses associated with allergic inflammation. However, the mechanisms that initiate and control type 2 responses remain enigmatic. Recent advances have revealed a role for the innate immune system in orchestrating type 2 responses against a bewildering array of stimuli, from nanometer-sized allergens to 20-meter-long helminth parasites. Here, we review these advances and suggest that the human immune system has evolved multiple mechanisms of sensing such stimuli, from recognition of molecular patterns via innate immune receptors to detecting metabolic changes and tissue damage caused by these stimuli.

Population growth enhances the mean fixation time of neutral mutations and the persistence of neutral variation.

PubMed

Waxman, D

2012-06-01

A fundamental result of population genetics states that a new mutation, at an unlinked neutral locus in a randomly mating diploid population, has a mean time of fixation of ∼4N(e) generations, where N(e) is the effective population size. This result is based on an assumption of fixed population size, which does not universally hold in natural populations. Here, we analyze such neutral fixations in populations of changing size within the framework of the diffusion approximation. General expressions are derived for the mean and variance of the fixation time in changing populations. Some explicit results are given for two cases: (i) the effective population size undergoes a sudden change, representing a sudden population expansion or a sudden bottleneck; (ii) the effective population changes linearly for a limited period of time and then remains constant. Additionally, a lower bound for the mean time of fixation is obtained for an effective population size that increases with time, and this is applied to exponentially growing populations. The results obtained in this work show, among other things, that for populations that increase in size, the mean time of fixation can be enhanced, sometimes substantially so, over 4N(e,0) generations, where N(e,0) is the effective population size at the time the mutation arises. Such an enhancement is associated with (i) an increased probability of neutral polymorphism in a population and (ii) an enhanced persistence of high-frequency neutral variation, which is the variation most likely to be observed.

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2001-01-01

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size

PubMed Central

Ragsdale, Alexandria K.; McCoy, Earl D.; Mushinsky, Henry R.

2016-01-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. PMID:26976940

A synbiotic multiparticulate microcapsule for enhancing inulin intestinal release and Bifidobacterium gastro-intestinal survivability.

PubMed

Fayed, Bahgat; Abood, Amira; El-Sayed, Hoda S; Hashem, Amal M; Mehanna, Nayra S H

2018-08-01

A novel synbiotic multiparticulate microparticle was produced in the current study to expand the synbiotic industrial applications. Initially, the inulin was fabricated into PLGA nanoparticles. After the inulin entrapment efficiency was boosted to reach 92.9 ± 8.4% by adjusting the formulation parameters, the developed particles were characterized by different techniques such as particle size analyzer, TEM, and TLC. The obtained data showed that the particle size was 115.8 ± 82.7 nm, the particles had smooth surface and round shape, and the fabrication procedure did not affect the integrity of the inulin. Later, the inulin loaded nanoparticles together with selected Bifidobacterium species were double coated with gum arabic and alginate. The maximum survivability of the encapsulated Bifidobacterium in the simulated gastric solution reached 88.29% of the initial population, which was significantly higher than the survivability of the free bacteria. Finally, the inulin release from the multiparticulate microparticles was studied and found to be sustained over three days. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Irruptive dynamics of introduced caribou on Adak Island, Alaska: an evaluation of Riney-Caughley model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ricca, Mark A.; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Williams, Jeffrey C.; Miles, A. Keith

2014-01-01

Large mammalian herbivores introduced to islands without predators are predicted to undergo irruptive population and spatial dynamics, but only a few well-documented case studies support this paradigm. We used the Riney-Caughley model as a framework to test predictions of irruptive population growth and spatial expansion of caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) introduced to Adak Island in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska in 1958 and 1959. We utilized a time series of spatially explicit counts conducted on this population intermittently over a 54-year period. Population size increased from 23 released animals to approximately 2900 animals in 2012. Population dynamics were characterized by two distinct periods of irruptive growth separated by a long time period of relative stability, and the catalyst for the initial irruption was more likely related to annual variation in hunting pressure than weather conditions. An unexpected pattern resembling logistic population growth occurred between the peak of the second irruption in 2005 and the next survey conducted seven years later in 2012. Model simulations indicated that an increase in reported harvest alone could not explain the deceleration in population growth, yet high levels of unreported harvest combined with increasing density-dependent feedbacks on fecundity and survival were the most plausible explanation for the observed population trend. No studies of introduced island Rangifer have measured a time series of spatial use to the extent described in this study. Spatial use patterns during the post-calving season strongly supported Riney-Caughley model predictions, whereby high-density core areas expanded outwardly as population size increased. During the calving season, caribou displayed marked site fidelity across the full range of population densities despite availability of other suitable habitats for calving. Finally, dispersal and reproduction on neighboring Kagalaska Island represented a new dispersal front for irruptive dynamics and a new challenge for resource managers. The future demography of caribou on both islands is far from certain, yet sustained and significant hunting pressure should be a vital management tool.

Collective effects and dynamics of non-adiabatic flame balls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Angelo, Yves; Joulin, Guy

2001-03-01

The dynamics of a homogeneous, polydisperse collection of non-adiabatic flame balls (FBs) is investigated by analytical/numerical means. A strongly temperature-dependent Arrhenius reaction rate is assumed, along with a light enough reactant characterized by a markedly less than unity Lewis number (Le). Combining activation-energy asymptotics with a mean-field type of treatment, the analysis yields a nonlinear integro-differential evolution equation (EE) for the FB population. The EE accounts for heat losses inside each FB and unsteadiness around it, as well as for its interactions with the entire FB population, namely mutual heating and faster (Le<1) consumption of the reactant pool. The initial FB number density and size distribution enter the EE explicitly. The latter is studied analytically at early times, then for small total FB number densities; it is subsequently solved numerically, yielding the whole population evolution and its lifetime. Generalizations and open questions relating to `spotty' turbulent combustion are finally evoked.

Getting quantitative about consequences of cross-ecosystem resource subsidies on recipient consumers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richardson, John S.; Wipfli, Mark S.

2016-01-01

Most studies of cross-ecosystem resource subsidies have demonstrated positive effects on recipient consumer populations, often with very large effect sizes. However, it is important to move beyond these initial addition–exclusion experiments to consider the quantitative consequences for populations across gradients in the rates and quality of resource inputs. In our introduction to this special issue, we describe at least four potential models that describe functional relationships between subsidy input rates and consumer responses, most of them asymptotic. Here we aim to advance our quantitative understanding of how subsidy inputs influence recipient consumers and their communities. In the papers following, fish were either the recipient consumers or the subsidy as carcasses of anadromous species. Advancing general, predictive models will enable us to further consider what other factors are potentially co-limiting (e.g., nutrients, other population interactions, physical habitat, etc.) and better integrate resource subsidies into consumer–resource, biophysical dynamics models.

Cardiovascular Health Awareness Program (CHAP): a community cluster-randomised trial among elderly Canadians.

PubMed

Kaczorowski, Janusz; Chambers, Larry W; Karwalajtys, Tina; Dolovich, Lisa; Farrell, Barbara; McDonough, Beatrice; Sebaldt, Rolf; Levitt, Cheryl; Hogg, William; Thabane, Lehana; Tu, Karen; Goeree, Ron; Paterson, J Michael; Shubair, Mamdouh; Gierman, Tracy; Sullivan, Shannon; Carter, Megan

2008-06-01

High blood pressure is an important and modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factor that remains under-detected and under-treated. Community-level interventions that address high blood pressure and other modifiable risk factors are a promising strategy to improve cardiovascular health in populations. The present study is a community cluster-randomised trial testing the effectiveness of CHAP (Cardiovascular Health Awareness Program) on the cardiovascular health of older adults. Thirty-nine mid-sized communities in Ontario, Canada were stratified by geographic location and size of the population aged >or=65 years and randomly allocated to receive CHAP or no intervention. In CHAP communities, residents aged >or=65 years were invited to attend cardiovascular risk assessment sessions held in pharmacies over 10 weeks in Fall, 2006. Sessions included blood pressure measurement and feedback to family physicians. Trained volunteers delivered the program with support from pharmacists, community nurses and local organisations. The primary outcome measure is the relative change in the mean annual rate of hospital admission for acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure and stroke (composite end-point) among residents aged >or=65 years in intervention and control communities, using routinely collected, population-based administrative health data. This paper highlights considerations in design, implementation and evaluation of a large-scale, community-wide cardiovascular health promotion initiative.

Evaluation of the distribution and impacts of parasites, pathogens, and pesticides on honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations in East Africa.

PubMed

Muli, Elliud; Patch, Harland; Frazier, Maryann; Frazier, James; Torto, Baldwyn; Baumgarten, Tracey; Kilonzo, Joseph; Kimani, James Ng'ang'a; Mumoki, Fiona; Masiga, Daniel; Tumlinson, James; Grozinger, Christina

2014-01-01

In East Africa, honey bees (Apis mellifera) provide critical pollination services and income for small-holder farmers and rural families. While honey bee populations in North America and Europe are in decline, little is known about the status of honey bee populations in Africa. We initiated a nationwide survey encompassing 24 locations across Kenya in 2010 to evaluate the numbers and sizes of honey bee colonies, assess the presence of parasites (Varroa mites and Nosema microsporidia) and viruses, identify and quantify pesticide contaminants in hives, and assay for levels of hygienic behavior. Varroa mites were present throughout Kenya, except in the remote north. Levels of Varroa were positively correlated with elevation, suggesting that environmental factors may play a role in honey bee host-parasite interactions. Levels of Varroa were negatively correlated with levels of hygienic behavior: however, while Varroa infestation dramatically reduces honey bee colony survival in the US and Europe, in Kenya Varroa presence alone does not appear to impact colony size. Nosema apis was found at three sites along the coast and one interior site. Only a small number of pesticides at low concentrations were found. Of the seven common US/European honey bee viruses, only three were identified but, like Varroa, were absent from northern Kenya. The number of viruses present was positively correlated with Varroa levels, but was not correlated with colony size or hygienic behavior. Our results suggest that Varroa, the three viruses, and Nosema have been relatively recently introduced into Kenya, but these factors do not yet appear to be impacting Kenyan bee populations. Thus chemical control for Varroa and Nosema are not necessary for Kenyan bees at this time. This study provides baseline data for future analyses of the possible mechanisms underlying resistance to and the long-term impacts of these factors on African bee populations.

Assessing allowable take of migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, M.C.; Sauer, J.R.; Avery, M.L.; Blackwell, B.F.; Koneff, M.D.

2009-01-01

Legal removal of migratory birds from the wild occurs for several reasons, including subsistence, sport harvest, damage control, and the pet trade. We argue that harvest theory provides the basis for assessing the impact of authorized take, advance a simplified rendering of harvest theory known as potential biological removal as a useful starting point for assessing take, and demonstrate this approach with a case study of depredation control of black vultures (Coragyps atratus) in Virginia, USA. Based on data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and other sources, we estimated that the black vulture population in Virginia was 91,190 (95% credible interval = 44,520?212,100) in 2006. Using a simple population model and available estimates of life-history parameters, we estimated the intrinsic rate of growth (rmax) to be in the range 7?14%, with 10.6% a plausible point estimate. For a take program to seek an equilibrium population size on the conservative side of the yield curve, the rate of take needs to be less than that which achieves a maximum sustained yield (0.5 x rmax). Based on the point estimate for rmax and using the lower 60% credible interval for population size to account for uncertainty, these conditions would be met if the take of black vultures in Virginia in 2006 was < 3,533 birds. Based on regular monitoring data, allowable harvest should be adjusted annually to reflect changes in population size. To initiate discussion about how this assessment framework could be related to the laws and regulations that govern authorization of such take, we suggest that the Migratory Bird Treaty Act requires only that take of native migratory birds be sustainable in the long-term, that is, sustained harvest rate should be < rmax. Further, the ratio of desired harvest rate to 0.5 x rmax may be a useful metric for ascertaining the applicability of specific requirements of the National Environmental Protection Act.

Evaluation of the Distribution and Impacts of Parasites, Pathogens, and Pesticides on Honey Bee (Apis mellifera) Populations in East Africa

PubMed Central

Frazier, James; Torto, Baldwyn; Baumgarten, Tracey; Kilonzo, Joseph; Kimani, James Ng'ang'a; Mumoki, Fiona; Masiga, Daniel; Tumlinson, James; Grozinger, Christina

2014-01-01

In East Africa, honey bees (Apis mellifera) provide critical pollination services and income for small-holder farmers and rural families. While honey bee populations in North America and Europe are in decline, little is known about the status of honey bee populations in Africa. We initiated a nationwide survey encompassing 24 locations across Kenya in 2010 to evaluate the numbers and sizes of honey bee colonies, assess the presence of parasites (Varroa mites and Nosema microsporidia) and viruses, identify and quantify pesticide contaminants in hives, and assay for levels of hygienic behavior. Varroa mites were present throughout Kenya, except in the remote north. Levels of Varroa were positively correlated with elevation, suggesting that environmental factors may play a role in honey bee host-parasite interactions. Levels of Varroa were negatively correlated with levels of hygienic behavior: however, while Varroa infestation dramatically reduces honey bee colony survival in the US and Europe, in Kenya Varroa presence alone does not appear to impact colony size. Nosema apis was found at three sites along the coast and one interior site. Only a small number of pesticides at low concentrations were found. Of the seven common US/European honey bee viruses, only three were identified but, like Varroa, were absent from northern Kenya. The number of viruses present was positively correlated with Varroa levels, but was not correlated with colony size or hygienic behavior. Our results suggest that Varroa, the three viruses, and Nosema have been relatively recently introduced into Kenya, but these factors do not yet appear to be impacting Kenyan bee populations. Thus chemical control for Varroa and Nosema are not necessary for Kenyan bees at this time. This study provides baseline data for future analyses of the possible mechanisms underlying resistance to and the long-term impacts of these factors on African bee populations. PMID:24740399

Particle size and surface area effects on the thin-pulse shock initiation of Diaminoazoxyfurazan (DAAF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burritt, Rosemary; Francois, Elizabeth; Windler, Gary; Chavez, David

2017-06-01

Diaminoazoxyfurazan (DAAF) has many of the safety characteristics of an insensitive high explosive (IHE): it is extremely insensitive to impact and friction and is comparable to triaminotrinitrobezene (TATB) in this way. Conversely, it demonstrates many performance characteristics of a Conventional High Explosive (CHE). DAAF has a small failure diameter of about 1.25 mm and can be sensitive to shock under the right conditions. Large particle sized DAAF will not initiate in a typical exploding foil initiator (EFI) configuration but smaller particle sizes will. Large particle sized DAAF, of 40 μm, was crash precipitated and ball milled into six distinct samples and pressed into pellets with a density of 1.60 g/cc (91% TMD). To investigate the effect of particle size and surface area on the direct initiation on DAAF multiple threshold tests were preformed on each sample of DAAF in different EFI configurations, which varied in flyer thickness and/or bridge size. Comparative tests were performed examining threshold voltage and correlated to Photon Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) results. The samples with larger particle sizes and surface area required more energy to initiate while the smaller particle sizes required less energy and could be initiated with smaller diameter flyers.

mtDNA variation predicts population size in humans and reveals a major Southern Asian chapter in human prehistory.

PubMed

Atkinson, Quentin D; Gray, Russell D; Drummond, Alexei J

2008-02-01

The relative timing and size of regional human population growth following our expansion from Africa remain unknown. Human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) diversity carries a legacy of our population history. Given a set of sequences, we can use coalescent theory to estimate past population size through time and draw inferences about human population history. However, recent work has challenged the validity of using mtDNA diversity to infer species population sizes. Here we use Bayesian coalescent inference methods, together with a global data set of 357 human mtDNA coding-region sequences, to infer human population sizes through time across 8 major geographic regions. Our estimates of relative population sizes show remarkable concordance with the contemporary regional distribution of humans across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas, indicating that mtDNA diversity is a good predictor of population size in humans. Plots of population size through time show slow growth in sub-Saharan Africa beginning 143-193 kya, followed by a rapid expansion into Eurasia after the emergence of the first non-African mtDNA lineages 50-70 kya. Outside Africa, the earliest and fastest growth is inferred in Southern Asia approximately 52 kya, followed by a succession of growth phases in Northern and Central Asia (approximately 49 kya), Australia (approximately 48 kya), Europe (approximately 42 kya), the Middle East and North Africa (approximately 40 kya), New Guinea (approximately 39 kya), the Americas (approximately 18 kya), and a second expansion in Europe (approximately 10-15 kya). Comparisons of relative regional population sizes through time suggest that between approximately 45 and 20 kya most of humanity lived in Southern Asia. These findings not only support the use of mtDNA data for estimating human population size but also provide a unique picture of human prehistory and demonstrate the importance of Southern Asia to our recent evolutionary past.

An analysis of respondent driven sampling with Injection Drug Users (IDU) in Albania and the Russian Federation.

PubMed

Stormer, Ame; Tun, Waimar; Guli, Lisa; Harxhi, Arjan; Bodanovskaia, Zinaida; Yakovleva, Anna; Rusakova, Maia; Levina, Olga; Bani, Roland; Rjepaj, Klodian; Bino, Silva

2006-11-01

Injection drug users in Tirana, Albania and St. Petersburg, Russia were recruited into a study assessing HIV-related behaviors and HIV serostatus using Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS), a peer-driven recruitment sampling strategy that results in a probability sample. (Salganik M, Heckathorn DD. Sampling and estimation in hidden populations using respondent-driven sampling. Sociol Method. 2004;34:193-239). This paper presents a comparison of RDS implementation, findings on network and recruitment characteristics, and lessons learned. Initiated with 13 to 15 seeds, approximately 200 IDUs were recruited within 8 weeks. Information resulting from RDS indicates that social network patterns from the two studies differ greatly. Female IDUs in Tirana had smaller network sizes than male IDUs, unlike in St. Petersburg where female IDUs had larger network sizes than male IDUs. Recruitment patterns in each country also differed by demographic categories. Recruitment analyses indicate that IDUs form socially distinct groups by sex in Tirana, whereas there was a greater degree of gender mixing patterns in St. Petersburg. RDS proved to be an effective means of surveying these hard-to-reach populations.

Decision-making in honeybee swarms based on quality and distance information of candidate nest sites.

PubMed

Laomettachit, Teeraphan; Termsaithong, Teerasit; Sae-Tang, Anuwat; Duangphakdee, Orawan

2015-01-07

In the nest-site selection process of honeybee swarms, an individual bee performs a waggle dance to communicate information about direction, quality, and distance of a discovered site to other bees at the swarm. Initially, different groups of bees dance to represent different potential sites, but eventually the swarm usually reaches an agreement for only one site. Here, we model the nest-site selection process in honeybee swarms of Apis mellifera and show how the swarms make adaptive decisions based on a trade-off between the quality and distance to candidate nest sites. We use bifurcation analysis and stochastic simulations to reveal that the swarm's site distance preference is moderate>near>far when the swarms choose between low quality sites. However, the distance preference becomes near>moderate>far when the swarms choose between high quality sites. Our simulations also indicate that swarms with large population size prefer nearer sites and, in addition, are more adaptive at making decisions based on available information compared to swarms with smaller population size. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rauter, Claudia M.

2010-01-01

This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

Effects of laser power density and initial grain size in laser shock punching of pure copper foil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Chao; Zhang, Xiu; Zhang, Yiliang; Ji, Zhong; Luan, Yiguo; Song, Libin

2018-06-01

The effects of laser power density and initial grain size on forming quality of holes in laser shock punching process were investigated in the present study. Three different initial grain sizes as well as three levels of laser power densities were provided, and then laser shock punching experiments of T2 copper foil were conducted. Based upon the experimental results, the characteristics of shape accuracy, fracture surface morphology and microstructures of punched holes were examined. It is revealed that the initial grain size has a noticeable effect on forming quality of holes punched by laser shock. The shape accuracy of punched holes degrades with the increase of grain size. As the laser power density is enhanced, the shape accuracy can be improved except for the case in which the ratio of foil thickness to initial grain size is approximately equal to 1. Compared with the fracture surface morphology in the quasistatic loading conditions, the fracture surface after laser shock can be divided into three zones including rollover, shearing and burr. The distribution of the above three zones strongly relates with the initial grain size. When the laser power density is enhanced, the shearing depth is not increased, but even diminishes in some cases. There is no obvious change of microstructures with the enhancement of laser power density. However, while the initial grain size is close to the foil thickness, single-crystal shear deformation may occur, suggesting that the ratio of foil thickness to initial grain size has an important impact on deformation behavior of metal foil in laser shock punching process.

Computational prediction of the refinement of oxide agglomerates in a physical conditioning process for molten aluminium alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, M.; Jagarlapudi, S. C.; Patel, J. B.; Stone, I. C.; Fan, Z.; Browne, D. J.

2015-06-01

Physically conditioning molten scrap aluminium alloys using high shear processing (HSP) was recently found to be a promising technology for purification of contaminated alloys. HSP refines the solid oxide agglomerates in molten alloys, so that they can act as sites for the nucleation of Fe-rich intermetallic phases which can subsequently be removed by the downstream de-drossing process. In this paper, a computational modelling for predicting the evolution of size of oxide clusters during HSP is presented. We used CFD to predict the macroscopic flow features of the melt, and the resultant field predictions of temperature and melt shear rate were transferred to a population balance model (PBM) as its key inputs. The PBM is a macroscopic model that formulates the microscopic agglomeration and breakage of a population of a dispersed phase. Although it has been widely used to study conventional deoxidation of liquid metal, this is the first time that PBM has been used to simulate the melt conditioning process within a rotor/stator HSP device. We employed a method which discretizes the continuous profile of size of the dispersed phase into a collection of discrete bins of size, to solve the governing population balance equation for the size of agglomerates. A finite volume method was used to solve the continuity equation, the energy equation and the momentum equation. The overall computation was implemented mainly using the FLUENT module of ANSYS. The simulations showed that there is a relatively high melt shear rate between the stator and sweeping tips of the rotor blades. This high shear rate leads directly to significant fragmentation of the initially large oxide aggregates. Because the process of agglomeration is significantly slower than the breakage processes at the beginning of HSP, the mean size of oxide clusters decreases very rapidly. As the process of agglomeration gradually balances the process of breakage, the mean size of oxide clusters converges to a steady value. The model enables formulation of the quantitative relationship between the macroscopic flow features of liquid metal and the change of size of dispersed oxide clusters, during HSP. It predicted the variation in size of the dispersed phased with operational parameters (including the geometry and, particularly, the speed of the rotor), which is of direct use to experimentalists optimising the design of the HSP device and its implementation.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

PubMed

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

PubMed Central

Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

2016-01-01

The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

The psychosocial effects of cleft lip and palate in non-Anglo populations: a cross-cultural meta-analysis.

PubMed

Hutchinson, Kathleen; Wellman, Maria A; Noe, Douglas A; Kahn, Alice

2011-09-01

A meta-analytic study was conducted to examine the cross-cultural psychosocial impact of cleft lip and/or palate in non-Anglo populations. A total of 333 citations were initially identified for review using electronic and hand-search strategies. Of the six studies that met inclusion criteria, two were later excluded due to insufficient data. The four remaining studies represented a combined sample size of 2276 adolescents and adults with cleft lip and/or palate from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Norway. Effect size using Cohen's d and confidence intervals were estimated using data from four studies of empirical, controlled study designs. The magnitude of effect sizes indicated that men (d = -0.75) with cleft lip and/or palate in non-Anglo cultures are more prone to psychosocial issues than women (d = -0.33). Adults (d = -0.50) are more impacted than adolescents (d = -0.04). Overall, regardless of age, gender, or culture, individuals with cleft lip and/or palate have lower psychosocial development than individuals without cleft lip and/or palate (d = -0.42). The effects for the cross-cultural comparisons were moderated by the age group and gender of the participants; however, most studies resulted in negative effect sizes. Health care teams for cleft lip and/or palate should recognize the importance of psychological intervention and family support in the treatment of all patients with cleft lip and/or palate throughout the life span.

An automated method to morph finite element whole-body human models with a wide range of stature and body shape for both men and women.

PubMed

Zhang, Kai; Cao, Libo; Fanta, Abeselom; Reed, Matthew P; Neal, Mark; Wang, Jenne-Tai; Lin, Chin-Hsu; Hu, Jingwen

2017-07-26

Field data analyses have shown that small female, obese, and/or older occupants are at increased risks of death and serious injury in motor-vehicle crashes compared with mid-size young men. The current adult finite element (FE) human models represent occupants in the same three body sizes (large male, mid-size male, and small female) as those for the contemporary adult crash dummies. Further, the time needed to develop an FE human model using the traditional method is measured in months or even years. In the current study, an improved regional mesh morphing method based on landmark-based radial basis function (RBF) interpolation was developed to rapidly morph a mid-size male FE human model into different geometry targets. A total of 100 human models with a wide range of human attributes were generated. A pendulum chest impact condition was applied to each model as an initial assessment of the resulting variability in response. The morphed models demonstrated mesh quality similar to the baseline model. The peak impact forces and chest deflections in the chest pendulum impacts varied substantially with different models, supportive of consideration of population variation in evaluating the occupant injury risks. The method developed in this study will enable future safety design optimizations targeting at various vulnerable populations that cannot be considered with the current models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations

PubMed Central

Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

2015-01-01

Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

Spatial variation in egg size of a top predator: Interplay of body size and environmental factors?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louzao, Maite; Igual, José M.; Genovart, Meritxell; Forero, Manuela G.; Hobson, Keith A.; Oro, Daniel

2008-09-01

It is expected that nearby populations are constrained by the same ecological features shaping in turn similarity in their ecological traits. Here, we studied the spatio-temporal variability in egg size among local populations of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, a top marine predator endemic to the western Mediterranean region. Specifically we assessed whether this trait was influenced by maternal body size, as an indicator of a genetic component, and feeding ecology (through stable-carbon and nitrogen-isotope measurements), as an indicator of environmental factors. We found that egg size varied among local populations, an unexpected result at such a small spatial scale. Body size differences at the local population level only partially explained such differences. Blood isotope measurements also differed among local populations. Values of δ 15N suggested inter-population differences in trophic level, showing a similar general pattern with egg size, and suggesting a nutritional link between them whereby egg size was affected by differences in feeding resources and/or behaviour. Values of δ 13C suggested that local populations did not differ in foraging habits with respect to benthic- vs. pelagic-based food-webs. Egg size did not vary among years as did breeding performance, suggesting that a differential temporal window could affect both breeding parameters in relation to food availability. The absence of a relationship between breeding performance and egg size suggested that larger eggs might only confer an advantage during harsh conditions. Alternatively parental quality could greatly affect breeding performance. We showed that inter-population differences in egg size could be influenced by both body size and environmental factors.

A high-resolution genetic signature of demographic and spatial expansion in epizootic rabies virus

PubMed Central

Biek, Roman; Henderson, J. Caroline; Waller, Lance A.; Rupprecht, Charles E.; Real, Leslie A.

2007-01-01

Emerging pathogens potentially undergo rapid evolution while expanding in population size and geographic range during the course of invasion, yet it is generally difficult to demonstrate how these processes interact. Our analysis of a 30-yr data set covering a large-scale rabies virus outbreak among North American raccoons reveals the long lasting effect of the initial infection wave in determining how viral populations are genetically structured in space. We further find that coalescent-based estimates derived from the genetic data yielded an amazingly accurate reconstruction of the known spatial and demographic dynamics of the virus over time. Our study demonstrates the combined evolutionary and population dynamic processes characterizing the spread of pathogen after its introduction into a fully susceptible host population. Furthermore, the results provide important insights regarding the spatial scale of rabies persistence and validate the use of coalescent approaches for uncovering even relatively complex population histories. Such approaches will be of increasing relevance for understanding the epidemiology of emerging zoonotic diseases in a landscape context. PMID:17470818

Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

2016-07-01

Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. © The American Genetic Association. 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Please don't misuse the museum: 'declines' may be statistical

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2015-01-01

Detecting declines in populations at broad spatial scales takes enormous effort, and long-term data are often more sparse than is desired for estimating trends, identifying drivers for population changes, framing conservation decisions or taking management actions. Museum records and historic data can be available at large scales across multiple decades, and are therefore an attractive source of information on the comparative status of populations. However, changes in populations may be real (e.g., in response to environmental covariates) or resulting from variation in our ability to observe the true population response (also possibly related to environmental covariates). This is a (statistical) nuisance in understanding the true status of a population. Evaluating statistical hypotheses alongside more interesting ecological ones is important in the appropriate use of museum data. Two statistical considerations are generally applicable to use of museum records: first without initial random sampling, comparison with contemporary results cannot provide inference to the entire range of a species, and second the availability of only some individuals in a population may respond to environmental changes. Changes in the availability of individuals may reduce the proportion of the population that is present and able to be counted on a given survey event, resulting in an apparent decline even when population size is stable.

Population size dependency of measles epidemic that was scalable from Japanese prefectures to European countries.

PubMed

Yoshikura, Hiroshi

2018-04-27

Relation between number of measles patients (y) and population size (x) was expressed by an equation y = ax s , where a is a constant and s the slope of the plot; s was 2.04-2.17 for prefectures in Japan, i.e., the number of patients was proportional to square of the prefecture population size. For European countries that joined European Union no later than 2009, the slope was 1.43-1.87. The measles' population dependency found among prefectures in Japan was thus scalable up to European countries. It was surprising because, unlike Japan, population density in EU countries was not uniform and not proportional to the population size. The population size dependency was not observed among Western Pacific and South-East Asian countries probably on account of confounding interacting socioeconomic factors. Correlation between measles incidence and birth rate, infant mortality or GDP per capita was almost insignificant.Size distribution of local infection clusters (LICs) of measles and rubella in Japan followed power law. For measles, though the population dependency remained unchanged after "elimination", there was change in the Zipf-type plot of LIC sizes. After the "elimination", LICs linked to importation-related outbreaks in less populated prefectures emerged as the top-ranked LICs.

What Can Crystal Size Distributions and Olivine Compositions Tell Us About Magma Solidification Processes in Kilauea Iki Lava Lake, Hawaii?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinet, N.; Higgins, M. D.

2009-12-01

Lava lakes offer the opportunity to investigate magma solidification and can be considered as a proxy for small magma chambers or layered intrusions. Here we present data from Kilauea Iki Lava Lake, which formed during the near-summit 1959 picritic eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. Microprobe geochemical analyses and crystal size distributions (CSDs) of olivine were determined from three eruption scoria samples, and 34 drill core samples taken from 1967 to 1988. The data provide valuable information on the dynamics and timescales of the intra-lake solidification processes, along with origin of, and temporal constraints on, the distinct olivine populations. Based on their core and rim forsterite (Fo) content, three distinct olivine populations were distinguished: (1) a high-Fo population (Fo85-88); (2) an intermediate-Fo population (Fo77-81); and (3) a low-Fo population (Fo72-76). Groups 1 and 2 both have deformed and undeformed crystals indicating that they formed partly within Kilauea plumbing system before the eruption. The second group seems to be associated with the ‘vertical olivine-rich bodies’ (VORBs) of Helz (1980). These structures raise magma from the lower part of the lake; hence they may have a contrasting composition maintained from the initial filling of the lake. The third population may be the result of rejuvenation within the lake during its cooling. Although the shape of the olivine CSDs is fairly uniform, we note significant variations that allow the recognition and quantification of multiple solidification processes. Our data display evidence of minor accumulation occurring by settling modified by convection currents. The concave-up curvature of at least half of the CSDs is strong evidence for mixing of magmas or crystal populations. The turndown at smallest sizes of the CSD, particularly present for samples at the edge of the lake, is thought to be the result of coarsening. Our CSD and crystal chemistry data suggest that the early populations and their related magmas underwent several solidification processes at depth, such as minor growth, coarsening, aggregation and deformation, plus settling and mixing maybe, no matter the order of appearance. The CSD analysis also yields estimates of the crystal residence time for different olivine populations, which are not necessarily the same as those defined using the olivine composition. For a growth rate of 10-9 mm/s, the range of residence times is 2-30 years. The CSDs can be segmented into three main groups: (a) a minor 2-4 yr-old population of smaller, rejuvenated crystals; (b) a dominant 10-18 yr-old population of intermediate-sized crystals; and (c) a 20-30 yr-old population of larger, coarsened, and often deformed crystals. Although the focus is here on volcanic rocks, our work gives a new perspective on the solidification of basic magma that can gain valuable insights into the overall understanding of mafic layered intrusions. References: Helz (1980), Bull. Volc. 43 (4): 675-701

Testing the 'island rule' for a tenebrionid beetle (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Miquel

2002-05-01

Insular populations and their closest mainland counterparts commonly display body size differences that are considered to fit the island rule, a theoretical framework to explain both dwarfism and gigantism in isolated animal populations. The island rule is used to explain the pattern of change of body size at the inter-specific level. But the model implicitly makes also a prediction for the body size of isolated populations of a single species. It suggests that, for a hypothetical species covering a wide range of island sizes, there exists a specific island size where this species reaches the largest body size. Body size would be small (in relative terms) in the smallest islets of the species range. It would increase with island size, and reach a maximum at some specific island size. However, additional increases from such a specific island size would instead promote body size reduction, and small (in relative terms) body sizes would be found again on the largest islands. The biogeographical patterns predicted by the island rule have been described and analysed for vertebrates only (mainly mammals), but remain largely untested for insects or other invertebrates. I analyse here the pattern of body size variation between seven isolated insular populations of a flightless beetle, Asida planipennis (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae). This is an endemic species of Mallorca, Menorca and a number of islands and islets in the Balearic archipelago (western Mediterranean). The study covers seven of the 15 known populations (i.e., there are only 15 islands or islets inhabited by the species). The populations studied fit the pattern advanced above and we could, therefore, extrapolate the island rule to a very different kind of organism. However, the small sample size of some of the populations invites some caution at this early stage.

A New Method for Estimating the Effective Population Size from Allele Frequency Changes

PubMed Central

Pollak, Edward

1983-01-01

A new procedure is proposed for estimating the effective population size, given that information is available on changes in frequencies of the alleles at one or more independently segregating loci and the population is observed at two or more separate times. Approximate expressions are obtained for the variances of the new statistic, as well as others, also based on allele frequency changes, that have been discussed in the literature. This analysis indicates that the new statistic will generally have a smaller variance than the others. Estimates of effective population sizes and of the standard errors of the estimates are computed for data on two fly populations that have been discussed in earlier papers. In both cases, there is evidence that the effective population size is very much smaller than the minimum census size of the population. PMID:17246147

Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders P.

2017-01-01

Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size. PMID:28253345

Incremental social learning in particle swarms.

PubMed

de Oca, Marco A Montes; Stutzle, Thomas; Van den Enden, Ken; Dorigo, Marco

2011-04-01

Incremental social learning (ISL) was proposed as a way to improve the scalability of systems composed of multiple learning agents. In this paper, we show that ISL can be very useful to improve the performance of population-based optimization algorithms. Our study focuses on two particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms: a) the incremental particle swarm optimizer (IPSO), which is a PSO algorithm with a growing population size in which the initial position of new particles is biased toward the best-so-far solution, and b) the incremental particle swarm optimizer with local search (IPSOLS), in which solutions are further improved through a local search procedure. We first derive analytically the probability density function induced by the proposed initialization rule applied to new particles. Then, we compare the performance of IPSO and IPSOLS on a set of benchmark functions with that of other PSO algorithms (with and without local search) and a random restart local search algorithm. Finally, we measure the benefits of using incremental social learning on PSO algorithms by running IPSO and IPSOLS on problems with different fitness distance correlations.

Sensitivity of Beam Parameters to a Station C Solenoid Scan on Axis II

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schulze, Martin E.

Magnet scans are a standard technique for determining beam parameters in accelerators. Beam parameters are inferred from spot size measurements using a model of the beam optics. The sensitivity of the measured beam spot size to the beam parameters is investigated for typical DARHT Axis II beam energies and currents. In a typical S4 solenoid scan, the downstream transport is tuned to achieve a round beam at Station C with an envelope radius of about 1.5 cm with a very small divergence with S4 off. The typical beam energy and current are 16.0 MeV and 1.625 kA. Figures 1-3 showmore » the sensitivity of the bean size at Station C to the emittance, initial radius and initial angle respectively. To better understand the relative sensitivity of the beam size to the emittance, initial radius and initial angle, linear regressions were performed for each parameter as a function of the S4 setting. The results are shown in Figure 4. The measured slope was scaled to have a maximum value of 1 in order to present the relative sensitivities in a single plot. Figure 4 clearly shows the beam size at the minimum of the S4 scan is most sensitive to emittance and relatively insensitive to initial radius and angle as expected. The beam emittance is also very sensitive to the beam size of the converging beam and becomes insensitive to the beam size of the diverging beam. Measurements of the beam size of the diverging beam provide the greatest sensitivity to the initial beam radius and to a lesser extent the initial beam angle. The converging beam size is initially very sensitive to the emittance and initial angle at low S4 currents. As the S4 current is increased the sensitivity to the emittance remains strong while the sensitivity to the initial angle diminishes.« less

Population estimates of Nearctic shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2000-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fell in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500,000. Population size was inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log (population size) and log (mass). Two outlying groups were evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, included species considered either to be "at risk" or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, included two species that are hunted. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada, and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Estimates of shorebird populations in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, R.I.G.; Gill, Robert E.; Harrington, B.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Page, G.W.; Gratto-Trevor, C. L.; Haig, S.M.

2001-01-01

Estimates are presented for the population sizes of 53 species of Nearctic shorebirds occurring regularly in North America, plus four species that breed occasionally. Population estimates range from a few tens to several millions. Overall, population estimates most commonly fall in the range of hundreds of thousands, particularly the low hundreds of thousands; estimated population sizes for large shorebird species currently all fall below 500 000. Population size is inversely related to size (mass) of the species, with a statistically significant negative regression between log(population size) and log(mass). Two outlying groups are evident on the regression graph: one, with populations lower than predicted, includes species considered to be either “at risk” or particularly hard to count, and a second, with populations higher than predicted, includes two species that are hunted. Shorebird population sizes were derived from data obtained by a variety of methods from breeding, migration, and wintering areas, and formal assessments of accuracy of counts or estimates are rarely available. Accurate estimates exist only for a few species that have been the subject of detailed investigation, and the likely accuracy of most estimates is considered poor or low. Population estimates are an integral part of conservation plans being developed for shorebirds in the United States and Canada and may be used to identify areas of key international and regional importance.

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

PubMed

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

Efficacy of Gaseous Ozone Application during Vacuum Cooling against Escherichia coli O157:H7 on Spinach Leaves as Influenced by Bacterium Population Size.

PubMed

Yesil, Mustafa; Kasler, David R; Huang, En; Yousef, Ahmed E

2017-07-01

Foodborne disease outbreaks associated with the consumption of fresh produce pose a threat to public health, decrease consumer confidence in minimally processed foods, and negatively impact the sales of these commodities. The aim of the study was to determine the influence of population size of inoculated pathogen on its inactivation by gaseous ozone treatment during vacuum cooling. Spinach leaves were spot inoculated with Escherichia coli O157:H7 at approximate initial populations of 10 8 , 10 7 , and 10 5 CFU/g. Inoculated leaves were vacuum cooled (28.5 inHg; 4°C) in a custom-made vessel and then were subjected to a gaseous ozone treatment under the following conditions: 1.5 g of ozone per kg of gas mixture, vessel pressure at 10 lb/in 2 gauge, 94 to 98% relative humidity, and 30 min of holding time at 9°C. Treatment of the leaves, having the aforementioned inocula, decreased E. coli populations by 0.2, 2.1, and 2.8 log CFU/g, respectively, compared with the inoculated untreated controls. Additionally, spinach leaves were inoculated at 1.4 × 10 3 CFU/g, which approximates natural contamination level, and the small populations remaining after ozone treatment were quantified using the most-probable-number (MPN) method. Vacuum and ozone sequential treatment decreased this E. coli O157:H7 population to <3 MPN/g (i.e., greater than 3-log reduction). Resulting log reductions were greater (P < 0.05) at the lower rather than the higher inoculum levels. In conclusion, treatment of spinach leaves with gaseous ozone is effective against pathogen loads comparable to those found in naturally contaminated fresh produce, but efficacy decreases as inoculum level increases.

75 FR 48815 - Medicaid Program and Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP); Revisions to the Medicaid...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-11

... size may be reduced by the finite population correction factor. The finite population correction is a statistical formula utilized to determine sample size where the population is considered finite rather than... program may notify us and the annual sample size will be reduced by the finite population correction...

Estimation of census and effective population sizes: the increasing usefulness of DNA-based approaches

Treesearch

Gordon Luikart; Nils Ryman; David A. Tallmon; Michael K. Schwartz; Fred W. Allendorf

2010-01-01

Population census size (NC) and effective population sizes (Ne) are two crucial parameters that influence population viability, wildlife management decisions, and conservation planning. Genetic estimators of both NC and Ne are increasingly widely used because molecular markers are increasingly available, statistical methods are improving rapidly, and genetic estimators...

Founder representation and effective population size in old versus young breeds-genetic diversity of Finnish and Nordic Spitz.

PubMed

Kumpulainen, M; Anderson, H; Svevar, T; Kangasvuo, I; Donner, J; Pohjoismäki, J

2017-10-01

Finnish Spitz is 130-year-old breed and has been highly popular in Finland throughout its history. Nordic Spitz is very similar to Finnish Spitz by origin and use, but is a relatively recent breed with much smaller population size. To see how breed age and breeding history have influenced the current population, we performed comprehensive population genetic analysis using pedigree data of 28,119 Finnish and 9,009 Nordic Spitzes combined with genomewide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from 135 Finnish and 110 Nordic Spitzes. We found that the Finnish Spitz has undergone repeated male bottlenecks resulting in dramatic loss of genetic diversity, reflected by 20 effective founders (f a ) and mean heterozygosity (Hz) of 0.313. The realized effective population size in the breed based on pedigree analysis (N¯ec) is 168, whereas the genetic effective population size (N eg ) computed the decay of linkage disequilibrium (r 2 ) is only 57 individuals. Nordic Spitz, although once been near extinction, has not been exposed to similar repeated bottlenecks than Finnish Spitz and had f a of 27 individuals. However, due to the smaller total population size, the breed has also smaller effective population size than Finnish Spitz (N¯ec = 98 and N eg  = 49). Interestingly, the r 2 data show that the effective population size has contracted dramatically since the establishment of the breed, emphasizing the role of breed standards as constrains for the breeding population. Despite the small population size, Nordic Spitz still maintains SNP heterozygosity levels similar to mixed breed dogs (mean Hz = 0.409). Our study demonstrates that although pedigree analyses cannot provide estimates of the present diversity within a breed, the effective population sizes inferred from them correlate with the genotyping results. The genetic relationships of the northern Spitz breeds and the benefits of the open breed registry are discussed. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Ecological and evolutionary influences on body size and shape in the Galápagos marine iguana (Amblyrhynchus cristatus).

PubMed

Chiari, Ylenia; Glaberman, Scott; Tarroso, Pedro; Caccone, Adalgisa; Claude, Julien

2016-07-01

Oceanic islands are often inhabited by endemic species that have undergone substantial morphological evolutionary change due to processes of multiple colonizations from various source populations, dispersal, and local adaptation. Galápagos marine iguanas are an example of an island endemic exhibiting high morphological diversity, including substantial body size variation among populations and sexes, but the causes and magnitude of this variation are not well understood. We obtained morphological measurements from marine iguanas throughout their distribution range. These data were combined with genetic and local environmental data from each population to investigate the effects of evolutionary history and environmental conditions on body size and shape variation and sexual dimorphism. Our results indicate that body size and shape are highly variable among populations. Sea surface temperature and island perimeter, but not evolutionary history as depicted by phylogeographic patterns in this species, explain variation in body size among populations. Conversely, evolutionary history, but not environmental parameters or island size, was found to influence variation in body shape among populations. Finally, in all populations except one, we found strong sexual dimorphism in body size and shape in which males are larger, with higher heads than females, while females have longer heads than males. Differences among populations suggest that plasticity and/or genetic adaptation may shape body size and shape variation in marine iguanas. This study will help target future investigations to address the contribution of plasticity versus genetic adaptation on size and shape variation in marine iguanas.

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations.

PubMed

Ohlberger, Jan; Edeline, Eric; Vøllestad, Leif Asbjørn; Stenseth, Nils C; Claessen, David

2011-02-01

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.

Modelling latrine diffusion in Benin: towards a community typology of demand for improved sanitation in developing countries.

PubMed

Jenkins, Marion W; Cairncross, Sandy

2010-03-01

Latrine diffusion patterns across 502 villages in Benin, West Africa, were analysed to explore factors driving initial and increasing levels of household adoption in low-coverage rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa. Variables explaining adoption related to population density, size, infrastructure/services, non-agricultural occupations, road and urban proximity, and the nearby latrine adoption rate, capturing differences in the physical and social environment, lifestyles and latrine exposure involved in stimulating status/prestige and well-being reasons for latrine adoption. Contagion was most important in explaining adoption initiation. Cluster analysis revealed four distinct village typologies of demand for latrines which provide a framework for tailoring promotional interventions to better match the different sanitation demand characteristics of communities in scaling-up sanitation development and promotion programmes.

Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.

On the number of New World founders: a population genetic portrait of the peopling of the Americas.

PubMed

Hey, Jody

2005-06-01

The founding of New World populations by Asian peoples is the focus of considerable archaeological and genetic research, and there persist important questions on when and how these events occurred. Genetic data offer great potential for the study of human population history, but there are significant challenges in discerning distinct demographic processes. A new method for the study of diverging populations was applied to questions on the founding and history of Amerind-speaking Native American populations. The model permits estimation of founding population sizes, changes in population size, time of population formation, and gene flow. Analyses of data from nine loci are consistent with the general portrait that has emerged from archaeological and other kinds of evidence. The estimated effective size of the founding population for the New World is fewer than 80 individuals, approximately 1% of the effective size of the estimated ancestral Asian population. By adding a splitting parameter to population divergence models it becomes possible to develop detailed portraits of human demographic history. Analyses of Asian and New World data support a model of a recent founding of the New World by a population of quite small effective size.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

PubMed

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

2015-08-01

Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

Robust organelle size extractions from elastic scattering measurements of single cells (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaday, Ashley E.; Draham, Robert; Berger, Andrew J.

2016-04-01

The goal of this project is to estimate non-nuclear organelle size distributions in single cells by measuring angular scattering patterns and fitting them with Mie theory. Simulations have indicated that the large relative size distribution of organelles (mean:width≈2) leads to unstable Mie fits unless scattering is collected at polar angles less than 20 degrees. Our optical system has therefore been modified to collect angles down to 10 degrees. Initial validations will be performed on polystyrene bead populations whose size distributions resemble those of cell organelles. Unlike with the narrow bead distributions that are often used for calibration, we expect to see an order-of-magnitude improvement in the stability of the size estimates as the minimum angle decreases from 20 to 10 degrees. Scattering patterns will then be acquired and analyzed from single cells (EMT6 mouse cancer cells), both fixed and live, at multiple time points. Fixed cells, with no changes in organelle sizes over time, will be measured to determine the fluctuation level in estimated size distribution due to measurement imperfections alone. Subsequent measurements on live cells will determine whether there is a higher level of fluctuation that could be attributed to dynamic changes in organelle size. Studies on unperturbed cells are precursors to ones in which the effects of exogenous agents are monitored over time.

Assessing the roles of population density and predation risk in the evolution of offspring size in populations of a placental fish

PubMed Central

Schrader, Matthew; Travis, Joseph

2012-01-01

Population density is an ecological variable that is hypothesized to be a major agent of selection on offspring size. In high-density populations, high levels of intraspecific competition are expected to favor the production of larger offspring. In contrast, lower levels of intraspecific competition and selection for large offspring should be weaker and more easily overridden by direct selection for increased fecundity in low-density populations. Some studies have found associations between population density and offspring size consistent with this hypothesis. However, their interpretations are often clouded by a number of issues. Here, we use data from a 10-year study of nine populations of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa, to describe the associations of offspring size with habitat type, population density, and predation risk. We found that females from spring populations generally produced larger offspring than females from ponds; however, the magnitude of this difference varied among years. Across all populations, larger offspring were associated with higher densities and lower risks of predation. Interestingly, the associations between the two ecological variables (density and predation risk) and offspring size were largely independent of one another. Our results suggest that previously described genetic differences in offspring size are due to density-dependent natural selection. PMID:22957156

CCN production by new particle formation in the free troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Clémence; Sellegri, Karine; Moreno, Isabel; Velarde, Fernando; Ramonet, Michel; Weinhold, Kay; Krejci, Radovan; Andrade, Marcos; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Ginot, Patrick; Laj, Paolo

2017-01-01

Global models predict that new particle formation (NPF) is, in some environments, responsible for a substantial fraction of the total atmospheric particle number concentration and subsequently contributes significantly to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. NPF events were frequently observed at the highest atmospheric observatory in the world, on Chacaltaya (5240 m a.s.l.), Bolivia. The present study focuses on the impact of NPF on CCN population. Neutral cluster and Air Ion Spectrometer and mobility particle size spectrometer measurements were simultaneously used to follow the growth of particles from cluster sizes down to ˜ 2 nm up to CCN threshold sizes set to 50, 80 and 100 nm. Using measurements performed between 1 January and 31 December 2012, we found that 61 % of the 94 analysed events showed a clear particle growth and significant enhancement of the CCN-relevant particle number concentration. We evaluated the contribution of NPF, relative to the transport and growth of pre-existing particles, to CCN size. The averaged production of 50 nm particles during those events was 5072, and 1481 cm-3 for 100 nm particles, with a larger contribution of NPF compared to transport, especially during the wet season. The data set was further segregated into boundary layer (BL) and free troposphere (FT) conditions at the site. The NPF frequency of occurrence was higher in the BL (48 %) compared to the FT (39 %). Particle condensational growth was more frequently observed for events initiated in the FT, but on average faster for those initiated in the BL, when the amount of condensable species was most probably larger. As a result, the potential to form new CCN was higher for events initiated in the BL (67 % against 53 % in the FT). In contrast, higher CCN number concentration increases were found when the NPF process initially occurred in the FT, under less polluted conditions. This work highlights the competition between particle growth and the removal of freshly nucleated particles by coagulation processes. The results support model predictions which suggest that NPF is an effective source of CCN in some environments, and thus may influence regional climate through cloud-related radiative processes.

Breast cancer screening in an era of personalized regimens: a conceptual model and National Cancer Institute initiative for risk-based and preference-based approaches at a population level.

PubMed

Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F; Sprague, Brian L; Barlow, William E; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; D Schnall, Mitchell; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L; Conant, Emily F

2014-10-01

Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women's health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for "overdiagnosis," and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a "1-size-fits-all" guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women's risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Directionality theory and the evolution of body size.

PubMed

Demetrius, L

2000-12-07

Directionality theory, a dynamic theory of evolution that integrates population genetics with demography, is based on the concept of evolutionary entropy, a measure of the variability in the age of reproducing individuals in a population. The main tenets of the theory are three principles relating the response to the ecological constraints a population experiences, with trends in entropy as the population evolves under mutation and natural selection. (i) Stationary size or fluctuations around a stationary size (bounded growth): a unidirectional increase in entropy; (ii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), large population size: a unidirectional decrease in entropy; and (iii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), small population size: random, non-directional change in entropy. We invoke these principles, together with an allometric relationship between entropy, and the morphometric variable body size, to provide evolutionary explanations of three empirical patterns pertaining to trends in body size, namely (i) Cope's rule, the tendency towards size increase within phyletic lineages; (ii) the island rule, which pertains to changes in body size that occur as species migrate from mainland populations to colonize island habitats; and (iii) Bergmann's rule, the tendency towards size increase with increasing latitude. The observation that these ecotypic patterns can be explained in terms of the directionality principles for entropy underscores the significance of evolutionary entropy as a unifying concept in forging a link between micro-evolution, the dynamics of gene frequency change, and macro-evolution, dynamic changes in morphometric variables.

Nationwide Genomic Study in Denmark Reveals Remarkable Population Homogeneity

PubMed Central

Athanasiadis, Georgios; Cheng, Jade Y.; Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J.; Jørgensen, Frank G.; Als, Thomas D.; Le Hellard, Stephanie; Espeseth, Thomas; Sullivan, Patrick F.; Hultman, Christina M.; Kjærgaard, Peter C.; Schierup, Mikkel H.; Mailund, Thomas

2016-01-01

Denmark has played a substantial role in the history of Northern Europe. Through a nationwide scientific outreach initiative, we collected genetic and anthropometrical data from ∼800 high school students and used them to elucidate the genetic makeup of the Danish population, as well as to assess polygenic predictions of phenotypic traits in adolescents. We observed remarkable homogeneity across different geographic regions, although we could still detect weak signals of genetic structure reflecting the history of the country. Denmark presented genomic affinity with primarily neighboring countries with overall resemblance of decreasing weight from Britain, Sweden, Norway, Germany, and France. A Polish admixture signal was detected in Zealand and Funen, and our date estimates coincided with historical evidence of Wend settlements in the south of Denmark. We also observed considerably diverse demographic histories among Scandinavian countries, with Denmark having the smallest current effective population size compared to Norway and Sweden. Finally, we found that polygenic prediction of self-reported adolescent height in the population was remarkably accurate (R2 = 0.639 ± 0.015). The high homogeneity of the Danish population could render population structure a lesser concern for the upcoming large-scale gene-mapping studies in the country. PMID:27535931

Woody climbers show greater population genetic differentiation than trees: Insights into the link between ecological traits and diversification.

PubMed

Gianoli, Ernesto; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Ruiz, Eduardo; Salgado-Luarte, Cristian; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A; Saldaña, Alfredo; Ríos, Rodrigo S

2016-12-01

The climbing habit is a key innovation in plants: climbing taxa have higher species richness than nonclimbing sister groups. We evaluated the hypothesis that climbing plant species show greater among-population genetic differentiation than nonclimber species. We compared the among-population genetic distance in woody climbers (eight species, 30 populations) and trees (seven species, 29 populations) coexisting in nine communities in a temperate rainforest. We also compared within-population genetic diversity in co-occurring woody climbers and trees in two communities. Mean genetic distance between populations of climbers was twice that of trees. Isolation by distance (increase in genetic distance with geographic distance) was greater for climbers. Climbers and trees showed similar within-population genetic diversity. Our longevity estimate suggested that climbers had shorter generation times, while other biological features often associated with diversification (dispersal and pollination syndromes, mating system, size, and metabolic rate) did not show significant differences between groups. We hypothesize that the greater population differentiation in climbers could result from greater evolutionary responses to local selection acting on initially higher within-population genetic diversity, which could be driven by neutral processes associated with shorter generation times. Increased population genetic differentiation could be incorporated as another line of evidence when testing for key innovations. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Weeds, as ancillary hosts, pose disproportionate risk for virulent pathogen transfer to crops.

PubMed

Linde, Celeste C; Smith, Leon M; Peakall, Rod

2016-05-12

The outcome of the arms race between hosts and pathogens depends heavily on the interactions between their genetic diversity, population size and transmission ability. Theory predicts that genetically diverse hosts will select for higher virulence and more diverse pathogens than hosts with low genetic diversity. Cultivated hosts typically have lower genetic diversity and thus small effective population sizes, but can potentially harbour large pathogen population sizes. On the other hand, hosts, such as weeds, which are genetically more diverse and thus have larger effective population sizes, usually harbour smaller pathogen population sizes. Large pathogen population sizes may lead to more opportunities for mutation and hence more diverse pathogens. Here we test the predictions that pathogen neutral genetic diversity will increase with large pathogen population sizes and host diversity, whereas diversity under selection will increase with host diversity. We assessed and compared the diversity of a fungal pathogen, Rhynchosporium commune, on weedy barley grass (which have a large effective population size) and cultivated barley (low genetic diversity) using microsatellites, effector locus nip1 diversity and pathogen aggressiveness in order to assess the importance of weeds in the evolution of the neutral and selected diversity of pathogens. The findings indicated that the large barley acreage and low host diversity maintains higher pathogen neutral genetic diversity and lower linkage disequilibrium, while the weed maintains more pathotypes and higher virulence diversity at nip1. Strong evidence for more pathogen migration from barley grass to barley suggests transmission of virulence from barley grass to barley is common. Pathogen census population size is a better predictor for neutral genetic diversity than host diversity. Despite maintaining a smaller pathogen census population size, barley grass acts as an important ancillary host to R. commune, harbouring highly virulent pathogen types capable of transmission to barley. Management of disease on crops must therefore include management of weedy ancillary hosts, which may harbour disproportionate supplies of virulent pathogen strains.

Computational analysis of complex systems: Applications to population dynamics and networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnar, Ferenc

In most complex evolving systems, we can often find a critical subset of the constituents that can initiate a global change in the entire system. For example, in complex networks, a critical subset of nodes can efficiently spread information, influence, or control dynamical processes over the entire network. Similarly, in nonlinear dynamics, we can locate key variables, or find the necessary parameters, to reach the attraction basin of a desired global state. In both cases, a fundamental goal is finding the ability to efficiently control these systems. We study two distinct complex systems in this dissertation, exploring these topics. First, we analyze a population dynamics model describing interactions of sex-structured population groups. Specifically, we analyze how a sex-linked genetic trait's ecological consequence (population survival or extinction) can be influenced by the presence of sex-specific cultural mortality traits, motivated by the desire to expand the theoretical understanding of the role of biased sex ratios in organisms. We analyze dynamics within a single population group, as well as between competing groups. We find that there is a finite range of sex ratio bias that can be maintained in stable equilibrium by sex-specific mortalities. We also find that the outcome of an invasion and the ensuing between-group competition depends not on larger equilibrium group densities, but on the higher allocation of sex-ratio genes. When we extend the model with diffusive dispersal, we find that a critical patch size for achieving positive growth only exists if the population expands into an empty environment. If a resident population is already present that can be exploited by the invading group, then any small seed of invader can advance from rarity, in the mean-field approximation, as long as the local competition dynamics favors the invader's survival. Most spatial models assume initial populations with a uniform distribution inside a finite patch; a simple, but not a cost-efficient approach. We show, using a novel application of simulated annealing, that a specific, non-trivial shape of spatial distribution can minimize the total cost of successful invasion, i.e., the cost of ecological restoration. Further, our approach can be generalized to essentially any reaction-diffusion model with diffusive spreading. In the second part of the dissertation we conduct an extensive study of minimum dominating sets (MDS) in complex networks; particularly, in scale-free networks. MDS is the smallest subset of nodes in a network that can reach every other node as nearest neighbors, thus it provides a key subset of nodes that play critical role in controllability and observability of social, biological, and technological networks. Continued interest in network control, monitoring and influencing of complex networks motivates our research of understanding the properties and practical application-related issues of the MDS. Our study of the scaling behavior reveals that the size of MDS always scales linearly with network size, as long as the power-law degree exponent gamma of the degree distribution is larger than 2. However, when gamma<2, a domination transition occurs, allowing the MDS size to become O(1), leading to easily dominated networks, under certain structural conditions. Motivated by practical applicability in large networks, we develop a new dominating set selection method, derived from probabilistic node selection techniques, which can select small dominating sets without complete network topology information. We also show that the effectiveness of our method, as well as the effectiveness of other heuristics of dominating set selection, strongly depends on the assortativity of networks. Finally, we conduct a numerical study to analyze the fraction of nodes that remain dominated, after the network is damaged, and some nodes are removed. We find that dominating sets optimized for small size are particularly vulnerable to damage; a significant amount of "domination coverage" may be lost if key dominator nodes are deleted. However, we also find that increasing the redundancy of dominating sets by adding a few well-picked nodes can successfully increase the post-damage dominated fraction of the network. Based on this idea, we develop two algorithms to build dominating sets with flexible balance between size and damage resilience.

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

PubMed

Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Nutritional status as an indicator of impending food stress*.

PubMed

Galvin, K A

1988-06-01

Famine early warning systems benefit from a variety of indicators which together signal the initial stages of food stress for particular population groups. Anthropometry has been used as an indicator in early warning systems, but there are inherent problems in its use which should be understood. Using data from Turkana pastoralists of northwest Kenya, this paper discusses the problems of: time lag between food shortages and changes in body size and composition; use of reference points; accurate age assessment; and establishment of baseline data. Diet composition data are suggested to be an additional nutrition-oriented indicator of impending food stress and one in which problems associated with anthropometry are not inherent. Both measures may be useful in monitoring a population, but their strengths and weaknesses should be appreciated.

Dispersal and population state of an endangered island lizard following a conservation translocation.

PubMed

Angeli, Nicole F; Lundgren, Ian F; Pollock, Clayton G; Hillis-Starr, Zandy M; Fitzgerald, Lee A

2018-03-01

Population size is widely used as a unit of ecological analysis, yet to estimate population size requires accounting for observed and latent heterogeneity influencing dispersion of individuals across landscapes. In newly established populations, such as when animals are translocated for conservation, dispersal and availability of resources influence patterns of abundance. We developed a process to estimate population size using N-mixture models and spatial models for newly established and dispersing populations. We used our approach to estimate the population size of critically endangered St. Croix ground lizards (Ameiva polops) five years after translocation of 57 individuals to Buck Island, an offshore island of St. Croix, United States Virgin Islands. Estimates of population size incorporated abiotic variables, dispersal limits, and operative environmental temperature available to the lizards to account for low species detection. Operative environmental temperature and distance from the translocation site were always important in fitting the N-mixture model indicating effects of dispersal and species biology on estimates of population size. We found that the population is increasing its range across the island by 5-10% every six months. We spatially interpolated site-specific abundance from the N-mixture model to the entire island, and we estimated 1,473 (95% CI, 940-1,802) St. Croix ground lizards on Buck Island in 2013 corresponding to survey results. This represents a 26-fold increase since the translocation. We predicted the future dispersal of the lizards to all habitats on Buck Island, with the potential for the population to increase by another five times in the future. Incorporating biologically relevant covariates as explicit parameters in population models can improve predictions of population size and the future spread of species introduced to new localities. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Hill, . M.; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.

2010-01-01

The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm objects are an empirical extension from larger debris. The extension takes into account the results of micro-debris (from 10 micron to 1 mm) population modeling that is based on shuttle impact data, in the hope of making a smooth transition between micron and millimeter size regimes. This paper also includes a brief discussion on issues and potential future work concerning the analysis and interpretation of Goldstone radar data.

Extinction-effective population index: incorporating life-history variations in population viability analysis.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami

2007-09-01

Viability status of populations is a commonly used measure for decision-making in the management of populations. One of the challenges faced by managers is the need to consistently allocate management effort among populations. This allocation should in part be based on comparison of extinction risks among populations. Unfortunately, common criteria that use minimum viable population size or count-based population viability analysis (PVA) often do not provide results that are comparable among populations, primarily because they lack consistency in determining population size measures and threshold levels of population size (e.g., minimum viable population size and quasi-extinction threshold). Here I introduce a new index called the "extinction-effective population index," which accounts for differential effects of demographic stochasticity among organisms with different life-history strategies and among individuals in different life stages. This index is expected to become a new way of determining minimum viable population size criteria and also complement the count-based PVA. The index accounts for the difference in life-history strategies of organisms, which are modeled using matrix population models. The extinction-effective population index, sensitivity, and elasticity are demonstrated in three species of Pacific salmonids. The interpretation of the index is also provided by comparing them with existing demographic indices. Finally, a measure of life-history-specific effect of demographic stochasticity is derived.

Differences in the effective population sizes of males and females do not require differences in their distribution of offspring number.

PubMed

Mendez, Fernando L

2017-04-01

Difference in male and female effective population sizes has, at times, been attributed to both sexes having unequal variance in their number of offspring. Such difference is paralleled by the relative effective sizes of autosomes, sex chromosomes, and mitochondrial DNA. I develop a simple framework to calculate the inbreeding effective population sizes for loci with different modes of inheritance. In this framework, I separate the effects due to mating strategy and those due to genetic transmission. I then show that, in addition to differences in the variance in offspring number, skew in the male/female effective sizes can also be caused by family composition. This approach can be used to illustrate the effect of induced behaviors on the relative male and female effective population sizes. In particular, I show the impact of the one-child policy formerly implemented in the People's Republic of China on the relative male and female effective population sizes. Furthermore, I argue that, under some strong constraints on family structure, the concepts of male and female effective population sizes are invalid. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Population Dose to Evaluate Community-level Health Initiatives.

PubMed

Harner, Lisa T; Kuo, Elena S; Cheadle, Allen; Rauzon, Suzanne; Schwartz, Pamela M; Parnell, Barbara; Kelly, Cheryl; Solomon, Loel

2018-05-01

Successful community-level health initiatives require implementing an effective portfolio of strategies and understanding their impact on population health. These factors are complicated by the heterogeneity of overlapping multicomponent strategies and availability of population-level data that align with the initiatives. To address these complexities, the population dose methodology was developed for planning and evaluating multicomponent community initiatives. Building on the population dose methodology previously developed, this paper operationalizes dose estimates of one initiative targeting youth physical activity as part of the Kaiser Permanente Community Health Initiative, a multicomponent community-level obesity prevention initiative. The technical details needed to operationalize the population dose method are explained, and the use of population dose as an interim proxy for population-level survey data is introduced. The alignment of the estimated impact from strategy-level data analysis using the dose methodology and the data from the population-level survey suggest that dose is useful for conducting real-time evaluation of multiple heterogeneous strategies, and as a viable proxy for existing population-level surveys when robust strategy-level evaluation data are collected. This article is part of a supplement entitled Building Thriving Communities Through Comprehensive Community Health Initiatives, which is sponsored by Kaiser Permanente, Community Health. Copyright © 2018 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of Photo-Identification and Mark-Recapture Methodology to Assess Basking Shark (Cetorhinus maximus) Populations

PubMed Central

Gore, Mauvis A.; Frey, Peter H.; Ormond, Rupert F.; Allan, Holly; Gilkes, Gabriella

2016-01-01

Following centuries of exploitation, basking sharks (Cetorhinus maximus) are considered by IUCN as Endangered in the Northeast Atlantic, where they have now been substantially protected for over two decades. However, the present size of this population remains unknown. We investigated the use of photo-identification of individuals’ dorsal fins, combined with mark-recapture methodology, to investigate the size of populations of basking shark within the west coast of Scotland. From a total of 921 encounters photographed between 2004 and 2011, 710 sharks were found to be individually identifiable based on dorsal fin damage and natural features. Of these, only 41 individuals were re-sighted, most commonly both within days of, and close to the site of, the initial encounter. A smaller number were re-sighted after longer periods of up to two years. A comparison of the distinguishing features of individuals on first recording and subsequent re-sighting showed that in almost all cases these features remained little changed, suggesting the low re-sighting rate was not due to a loss of distinguishing features. Because of the low number of re-sighting we were not able to produce reliable estimates for the long-term regional population. However, for one 50 km diameter study area between the islands of Mull, Coll and Tiree, we were able to generate closed-population estimates for 6–9 day periods in 2010 of 985 (95% CI = 494–1683), and in 2011 of 201 (95% CI = 143–340). For the same 2011 period an open-population model generated a similar estimate of 213 (95% CI = 111–317). Otherwise the low rate and temporal patterning of re-sightings support the view that such local basking shark populations are temporary, dynamic groupings of individuals drawn from a much larger regional population than previously supposed. The study demonstrated the feasibility and limitations of photo-identification as a non-invasive technique for identifying individual basking sharks. PMID:26930611

Compensatory immigration depends on adjacent population size and habitat quality but not on landscape connectivity.

PubMed

Turgeon, Katrine; Kramer, Donald L

2012-11-01

1. Populations experiencing localized mortality can recover in the short term by net movement of individuals from adjacent areas, a process called compensatory immigration or spillover. Little is known about the factors influencing the magnitude of compensatory immigration or its impact on source populations. Such information is important for understanding metapopulation dynamics, the use of protected areas for conservation, management of exploited populations and pest control. 2. Using two small, territorial damselfish species (Stegastes diencaeus and S. adustus) in their naturally fragmented habitat, we quantified compensatory immigration in response to localized mortality, assessed its impact on adjacent source populations and examined the importance of potential immigrants, habitat quality and landscape connectivity as limiting factors. On seven experimental sites, we repeatedly removed 15% of the initial population size until none remained and immigration ceased. 3. Immigrants replaced 16-72% of original residents in S. diencaeus and 0-69% in S. adustus. The proportion of the source population that immigrated into depleted areas varied from 9% to 61% in S. diencaeus and from 3% to 21% in S. adustus. In S. diencaeus, compensatory immigration was strongly affected by habitat quality, to a lesser extent by the abundance of potential immigrants and not by landscape connectivity. In S. adustus, immigration was strongly affected by the density of potential migrants and not by habitat quality and landscape connectivity. On two control sites, immigration in the absence of creation of vacancies was extremely rare. 4. Immigration occurred in response to localized mortality and was therefore compensatory. It was highly variable, sometimes producing substantial impacts on both depleted and source populations. The magnitude of compensatory immigration was influenced primarily by the availability of immigrants and by the potential improvement in territory quality that they could achieve by immigrating and not by their ability to reach the depleted area. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Sample Size Estimation for Alzheimer's Disease Trials from Japanese ADNI Serial Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

PubMed

Fujishima, Motonobu; Kawaguchi, Atsushi; Maikusa, Norihide; Kuwano, Ryozo; Iwatsubo, Takeshi; Matsuda, Hiroshi

2017-01-01

Little is known about the sample sizes required for clinical trials of Alzheimer's disease (AD)-modifying treatments using atrophy measures from serial brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in the Japanese population. The primary objective of the present study was to estimate how large a sample size would be needed for future clinical trials for AD-modifying treatments in Japan using atrophy measures of the brain as a surrogate biomarker. Sample sizes were estimated from the rates of change of the whole brain and hippocampus by the k-means normalized boundary shift integral (KN-BSI) and cognitive measures using the data of 537 Japanese Alzheimer's Neuroimaging Initiative (J-ADNI) participants with a linear mixed-effects model. We also examined the potential use of ApoE status as a trial enrichment strategy. The hippocampal atrophy rate required smaller sample sizes than cognitive measures of AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Inclusion of ApoE status reduced sample sizes for AD and MCI patients in the atrophy measures. These results show the potential use of longitudinal hippocampal atrophy measurement using automated image analysis as a progression biomarker and ApoE status as a trial enrichment strategy in a clinical trial of AD-modifying treatment in Japanese people.

Cannibalism as an interacting phenotype: precannibalistic aggression is influenced by social partners in the endangered Socorro Isopod (Thermosphaeroma thermophilum).

PubMed

Bleakley, B H; Welter, S M; McCauley-Cole, K; Shuster, S M; Moore, A J

2013-04-01

Models for the evolution of cannibalism highlight the importance of asymmetries between individuals in initiating cannibalistic attacks. Studies may include measures of body size but typically group individuals into size/age classes or compare populations. Such broad comparisons may obscure the details of interactions that ultimately determine how socially contingent characteristics evolve. We propose that understanding cannibalism is facilitated by using an interacting phenotypes perspective that includes the influences of the phenotype of a social partner on the behaviour of a focal individual and focuses on variation in individual pairwise interactions. We investigated how relative body size, a composite trait between a focal individual and its social partner, and the sex of the partners influenced precannibalistic aggression in the endangered Socorro isopod, Thermosphaeroma thermophilum. We also investigated whether differences in mating interest among males and females influenced cannibalism in mixed sex pairs. We studied these questions in three populations that differ markedly in range of body size and opportunities for interactions among individuals. We found that relative body size influences the probability of and latency to attack. We observed differences in the likelihood of and latency to attack based on both an individual's sex and the sex of its partner but found no evidence of sexual conflict. The instigation of precannibalistic aggression in these isopods is therefore a property of both an individual and its social partner. Our results suggest that interacting phenotype models would be improved by incorporating a new conditional ψ, which describes the strength of a social partner's influence on focal behaviour. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Replication Validity of Initial Association Studies: A Comparison between Psychiatry, Neurology and Four Somatic Diseases.

PubMed

Dumas-Mallet, Estelle; Button, Katherine; Boraud, Thomas; Munafo, Marcus; Gonon, François

2016-01-01

There are growing concerns about effect size inflation and replication validity of association studies, but few observational investigations have explored the extent of these problems. Using meta-analyses to measure the reliability of initial studies and explore whether this varies across biomedical domains and study types (cognitive/behavioral, brain imaging, genetic and "others"). We analyzed 663 meta-analyses describing associations between markers or risk factors and 12 pathologies within three biomedical domains (psychiatry, neurology and four somatic diseases). We collected the effect size, sample size, publication year and Impact Factor of initial studies, largest studies (i.e., with the largest sample size) and the corresponding meta-analyses. Initial studies were considered as replicated if they were in nominal agreement with meta-analyses and if their effect size inflation was below 100%. Nominal agreement between initial studies and meta-analyses regarding the presence of a significant effect was not better than chance in psychiatry, whereas it was somewhat better in neurology and somatic diseases. Whereas effect sizes reported by largest studies and meta-analyses were similar, most of those reported by initial studies were inflated. Among the 256 initial studies reporting a significant effect (p<0.05) and paired with significant meta-analyses, 97 effect sizes were inflated by more than 100%. Nominal agreement and effect size inflation varied with the biomedical domain and study type. Indeed, the replication rate of initial studies reporting a significant effect ranged from 6.3% for genetic studies in psychiatry to 86.4% for cognitive/behavioral studies. Comparison between eight subgroups shows that replication rate decreases with sample size and "true" effect size. We observed no evidence of association between replication rate and publication year or Impact Factor. The differences in reliability between biological psychiatry, neurology and somatic diseases suggest that there is room for improvement, at least in some subdomains.

Replication Validity of Initial Association Studies: A Comparison between Psychiatry, Neurology and Four Somatic Diseases

PubMed Central

Dumas-Mallet, Estelle; Button, Katherine; Boraud, Thomas; Munafo, Marcus; Gonon, François

2016-01-01

Context There are growing concerns about effect size inflation and replication validity of association studies, but few observational investigations have explored the extent of these problems. Objective Using meta-analyses to measure the reliability of initial studies and explore whether this varies across biomedical domains and study types (cognitive/behavioral, brain imaging, genetic and “others”). Methods We analyzed 663 meta-analyses describing associations between markers or risk factors and 12 pathologies within three biomedical domains (psychiatry, neurology and four somatic diseases). We collected the effect size, sample size, publication year and Impact Factor of initial studies, largest studies (i.e., with the largest sample size) and the corresponding meta-analyses. Initial studies were considered as replicated if they were in nominal agreement with meta-analyses and if their effect size inflation was below 100%. Results Nominal agreement between initial studies and meta-analyses regarding the presence of a significant effect was not better than chance in psychiatry, whereas it was somewhat better in neurology and somatic diseases. Whereas effect sizes reported by largest studies and meta-analyses were similar, most of those reported by initial studies were inflated. Among the 256 initial studies reporting a significant effect (p<0.05) and paired with significant meta-analyses, 97 effect sizes were inflated by more than 100%. Nominal agreement and effect size inflation varied with the biomedical domain and study type. Indeed, the replication rate of initial studies reporting a significant effect ranged from 6.3% for genetic studies in psychiatry to 86.4% for cognitive/behavioral studies. Comparison between eight subgroups shows that replication rate decreases with sample size and “true” effect size. We observed no evidence of association between replication rate and publication year or Impact Factor. Conclusion The differences in reliability between biological psychiatry, neurology and somatic diseases suggest that there is room for improvement, at least in some subdomains. PMID:27336301

Effective population size and genetic conservation criteria for bull trout

Treesearch

Bruce E. Rieman; F. W. Allendorf

2001-01-01

Effective population size (Ne) is an important concept in the management of threatened species like bull trout Salvelinus confluentus. General guidelines suggest that effective population sizes of 50 or 500 are essential to minimize inbreeding effects or maintain adaptive genetic variation, respectively....

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tbilisi, Georgia; Multiple Methods and Triangulation of Findings.

PubMed

Sulaberidze, Lela; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Chikovani, Ivdity; Shengelia, Natia; Tsereteli, Nino; Gotsadze, George

2016-01-01

An accurate estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) is critical to the success of HIV program planning and to monitoring of the response to epidemic as a whole, but is quite often missing. In this study, our aim was to estimate the population size of MSM in Tbilisi, Georgia and compare it with other estimates in the region. In the absence of a gold standard for estimating the population size of MSM, this study reports a range of methods, including network scale-up, mobile/web apps multiplier, service and unique object multiplier, network-based capture-recapture, Handcock RDS-based and Wisdom of Crowds methods. To apply all these methods, two surveys were conducted: first, a household survey among 1,015 adults from the general population, and second, a respondent driven sample of 210 MSM. We also conducted a literature review of MSM size estimation in Eastern European and Central Asian countries. The median population size of MSM generated from all previously mentioned methods was estimated to be 5,100 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3,243~9,088). This corresponds to 1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi. Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi) fall within ranges reported in other Eastern European and Central Asian countries. These estimates can provide valuable information for country level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe, that our results will narrow the gap in data availability on the estimates of the population size of MSM in the region.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu Qin, E-mail: zhuqin@fudan.edu.cn; Peng Xizhe, E-mail: xzpeng@fudan.edu.cn

This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects onmore » carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.« less

Does population size affect genetic diversity? A test with sympatric lizard species.

PubMed

Hague, M T J; Routman, E J

2016-01-01

Genetic diversity is a fundamental requirement for evolution and adaptation. Nonetheless, the forces that maintain patterns of genetic variation in wild populations are not completely understood. Neutral theory posits that genetic diversity will increase with a larger effective population size and the decreasing effects of drift. However, the lack of compelling evidence for a relationship between genetic diversity and population size in comparative studies has generated some skepticism over the degree that neutral sequence evolution drives overall patterns of diversity. The goal of this study was to measure genetic diversity among sympatric populations of related lizard species that differ in population size and other ecological factors. By sampling related species from a single geographic location, we aimed to reduce nuisance variance in genetic diversity owing to species differences, for example, in mutation rates or historical biogeography. We compared populations of zebra-tailed lizards and western banded geckos, which are abundant and short-lived, to chuckwallas and desert iguanas, which are less common and long-lived. We assessed population genetic diversity at three protein-coding loci for each species. Our results were consistent with the predictions of neutral theory, as the abundant species almost always had higher levels of haplotype diversity than the less common species. Higher population genetic diversity in the abundant species is likely due to a combination of demographic factors, including larger local population sizes (and presumably effective population sizes), faster generation times and high rates of gene flow with other populations.

Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

PubMed

Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

2011-01-01

Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of imperiled species.

Ecological correlates of invasion impact for Burmese pythons in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, R.N.; Willson, J.D.; Rodda, G.H.; Dorcas, M.E.

2012-01-01

An invasive population of Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) is established across several thousand square kilometers of southern Florida and appears to have caused precipitous population declines among several species of native mammals. Why has this giant snake had such great success as an invasive species when many established reptiles have failed to spread? We scored the Burmese python for each of 15 literature-based attributes relative to predefined comparison groups from a diverse range of taxa and provide a review of the natural history and ecology of Burmese pythons relevant to each attribute. We focused on attributes linked to spread and magnitude of impacts rather than establishment success. Our results suggest that attributes related to body size and generalism appeared to be particularly applicable to the Burmese python's success in Florida. The attributes with the highest scores were: high reproductive potential, low vulnerability to predation, large adult body size, large offspring size and high dietary breadth. However, attributes of ectotherms in general and pythons in particular (including predatory mode, energetic efficiency and social interactions) might have also contributed to invasion success. Although establishment risk assessments are an important initial step in prevention of new establishments, evaluating species in terms of their potential for spreading widely and negatively impacting ecosystems might become part of the means by which resource managers prioritize control efforts in environments with large numbers of introduced species.

Methods to estimate effective population size using pedigree data: Examples in dog, sheep, cattle and horse

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Effective population sizes of 140 populations (including 60 dog breeds, 40 sheep breeds, 20 cattle breeds and 20 horse breeds) were computed using pedigree information and six different computation methods. Simple demographical information (number of breeding males and females), variance of progeny size, or evolution of identity by descent probabilities based on coancestry or inbreeding were used as well as identity by descent rate between two successive generations or individual identity by descent rate. Results Depending on breed and method, effective population sizes ranged from 15 to 133 056, computation method and interaction between computation method and species showing a significant effect on effective population size (P < 0.0001). On average, methods based on number of breeding males and females and variance of progeny size produced larger values (4425 and 356, respectively), than those based on identity by descent probabilities (average values between 93 and 203). Since breeding practices and genetic substructure within dog breeds increased inbreeding, methods taking into account the evolution of inbreeding produced lower effective population sizes than those taking into account evolution of coancestry. The correlation level between the simplest method (number of breeding males and females, requiring no genealogical information) and the most sophisticated one ranged from 0.44 to 0.60 according to species. Conclusions When choosing a method to compute effective population size, particular attention should be paid to the species and the specific genetic structure of the population studied. PMID:23281913

Dust coagulation and magnetic field strength in a planet-induced gap subject to MRI turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carballido, Augusto; Matthews, Lorin; Hyde, Truell

2017-01-01

We investigate the coagulation of dust particles in and around a gap opened by a Jupiter-mass planet. To this end, we carry out a high-resolution magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the gap environment, which is turbulent due to the magneto rotational instability. From the MHD simulation, we obtain values of the gas velocities, densities and turbulent stresses close to the gap edge, in one of the two gas streams that accrete onto the planet, and inside the low-density gap. The MHD values are then supplied to a Monte Carlo dust coagulation algorithm, which models grain sticking, compaction and bouncing. We consider two dust populations for each region: one whose initial size distribution is monodisperse, with monomer radius equal to 1 micron, and another one whose initial size distribution follows the Mathis-Rumpl-Nordsieck distribution for interstellar dust grains, with an initial range of monomer radii between 0.5 and 10 microns. Without bouncing, our Monte Carlo calculations show steady growth of dust aggregates in all regions, and the mass-weighted (MW) average porosity of the initially mono disperse population reaches extremely high final values of 98%. The final MW porosities in all other cases without bouncing range from 30% to 82%. The efficiency of compaction is due to high turbulent relative speeds between dust particles. When bouncing is introduced, growth is slowed down in the planetary wake and inside the gap.We also analyze the strength of the magnetic field threading the gaps opened by planets of different sub-Jovian masses. Preliminary results show that, in a gap opened by a large-mass planet (~ 1 MJ), the time-averaged radial profile of the vertical component of the field (Bz) increases sharply inside the gap, and less sharply in the case of less massive planets. In gaps opened by intermediate-mass planets (~ 0.5 — 0.75 MJ), the radial profile of Bz exhibits local maxima in the vicinity of the planet, but not at the gap center.

Density-Dependent Effects on Group Size Are Sex-Specific in a Gregarious Ungulate

PubMed Central

Vander Wal, Eric; van Beest, Floris M.; Brook, Ryan K.

2013-01-01

Density dependence can have marked effects on social behaviors such as group size. We tested whether changes in population density of a large herbivore (elk, Cervus canadensis) affected sex-specific group size and whether the response was density- or frequency-dependent. We quantified the probability and strength of changes in group sizes and dispersion as population density changed for each sex. We used group size data from a population of elk in Manitoba, Canada, that was experimentally reduced from 1.20 to 0.67 elk/km2 between 2002 and 2009. Our results indicated that functional responses of group size to population density are sex-specific. Females showed a positive density-dependent response in group size at population densities ≥0.70 elk/km2 and we found evidence for a minimum group size at population density ≤0.70 elk/km2. Changes in male group size were also density-dependent; however, the strength of the relationship was lower than for females. Density dependence in male group size was predominantly a result of fusion of solitary males into larger groups, rather than fusion among existing groups. Our study revealed that density affects group size of a large herbivore differently between males and females, which has important implications for the benefits e.g., alleviating predation risk, and costs of social behaviors e.g., competition for resources and mates, and intra-specific pathogen transmission. PMID:23326502

Pulmonary Function in Middle-Aged Patients With Idiopathic Scoliosis With Onset Before the Age of 10 Years.

PubMed

Danielsson, Aina J; Ekerljung, Linda; Hallerman, Kerstin Lofdahl

2015-09-01

Consecutive patients with idiopathic scoliosis diagnosed before age 10 attended a clinical follow-up at least 10 years after treatment. To evaluate the pulmonary function in adulthood after treatment with brace or surgery before maturity. Long-term studies of these patients have not been published. One hundred twenty-four patients (69% of the original group) underwent radiography, spirometry, and answered symptom questionnaires. A total of 73 patients had spirometries before treatment enabling longitudinal evaluation. Overall, 68 braced only (BT) and 56 surgically treated (ST) were analyzed in detail. A population-based control group was used. At follow-up, the mean age was 41.5 years and the mean curve size 36 degrees (26% of the curves >45 degrees). The full patient group had a significantly reduced pulmonary function (as measured by the forced vital capacity [FVC], percentage of predicted) compared with the control group, mean 85% versus 102% (p < .0001). Both subgroups of BT and ST patients showed a significant reduction, more in the ST than the BT group (means 79% and 90%, respectively, p = .0003). The most important risk factor for a low lung function at follow-up was a low initial FVC value. Initial curve size correlated with pulmonary function both before treatment and at follow-up. Most surgically treated patients, who had larger curves before treatment, did not improve their pulmonary function after surgery. Both braced and surgically treated patients had reduced pulmonary function at the age of around 40 years. The pulmonary function did not worsen over time in most patients. There was no difference in terms of symptoms between patient groups and controls. Initial curve size was found to be of great importance for pulmonary function. Initial spirometry and follow-up in selected patients is important. III. Copyright © 2015 Scoliosis Research Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative biology of the crab Goniopsis cruentata: geographic variation of body size, sexual maturity, and allometric growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lira, José Jonathas Pereira Rodrigues; Calado, Tereza Cristina dos Santos; Rezende, Carla Ferreira; Silva, José Roberto Feitosa

2015-12-01

Geographic variation of phenotypic traits is common across species and is often associated with variation in environmental conditions. Here, we found larger bodies and larger size at maturity in a northward, lower latitude population of the crab Goniopsis cruentata, which inhabits a hotter, drier environment in comparison with a southward, higher latitude population. Furthermore, the juvenile male gonopods grow more relative to body size in the population characterized by maturation at a smaller size. In contrast, the female abdomen widens at a higher rate among the late maturing population. These results provide further evidence that local environmental conditions play a role in phenotypic variation between populations inhabiting different latitudes. Moreover, they also show that variation in size at maturity and body size can lead to divergent allometric patterns of sexual characteristics that can have a sex-specific response.

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men through the Network Scale-Up Method in Japan

PubMed Central

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. Methods and Findings An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. Conclusions The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods. PMID:22563366

Influence of age and selected environmental factors on reproductive performance of canvasbacks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Serie, Jerome R.; Trauger, David L.; Austin, Jane E.

1992-01-01

Age, productivity, and other factors affecting breeding performance of canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) are poorly understood. Consequently, we tested whether reproductive performance of female canvasbacks varied with age and selected environmental factors in southwestern Manitoba from 1974 to 1980. Neither clutch size, nest parasitism, nest success, nor the number of ducklings/brood varied with age. Return rates, nest initiation dates, renesting, and hen success were age-related. Return rates averaged 21% for second-year (SY) and 69% for after-second-year (ASY) females (58% for third-year and 79% for after-third-year females). Additionally, water conditions and spring temperatures influenced chronology of arrival, timing of nesting, and reproductive success. Nest initiation by birds of all ages was affected by minimum April temperatures. Clutch size was higher in nests initiated earlier. Interspecific nest parasitism did not affect clutch size, nest success, hen success, or hatching success. Nest success was lower in dry years (17%) than in moderately wet (54%) or wet (60%) years. Nests per female were highest during wet years. No nests of SY females were found in dry years. In years of moderate to good wetland conditions, females of all ages nested. Predation was the primary factor influencing nest success. Hen success averaged 58% over all years. The number of ducklings surviving 20 days averaged 4.7/brood. Because SY females have lower return rates and hen success than ASY females, especially during drier years, management to increase canvasback populations might best be directed to increasing first year recruitment (no. of females returning to breed) and to increasing overall breeding success by reducing predation and enhancing local habitat conditions during nesting.

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Non-parametric estimation of population size changes from the site frequency spectrum.

PubMed

Waltoft, Berit Lindum; Hobolth, Asger

2018-06-11

Changes in population size is a useful quantity for understanding the evolutionary history of a species. Genetic variation within a species can be summarized by the site frequency spectrum (SFS). For a sample of size n, the SFS is a vector of length n - 1 where entry i is the number of sites where the mutant base appears i times and the ancestral base appears n - i times. We present a new method, CubSFS, for estimating the changes in population size of a panmictic population from an observed SFS. First, we provide a straightforward proof for the expression of the expected site frequency spectrum depending only on the population size. Our derivation is based on an eigenvalue decomposition of the instantaneous coalescent rate matrix. Second, we solve the inverse problem of determining the changes in population size from an observed SFS. Our solution is based on a cubic spline for the population size. The cubic spline is determined by minimizing the weighted average of two terms, namely (i) the goodness of fit to the observed SFS, and (ii) a penalty term based on the smoothness of the changes. The weight is determined by cross-validation. The new method is validated on simulated demographic histories and applied on unfolded and folded SFS from 26 different human populations from the 1000 Genomes Project.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators.

PubMed

Gupta, Manan; Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T N C

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species.

Effects of social organization, trap arrangement and density, sampling scale, and population density on bias in population size estimation using some common mark-recapture estimators

PubMed Central

Joshi, Amitabh; Vidya, T. N. C.

2017-01-01

Mark-recapture estimators are commonly used for population size estimation, and typically yield unbiased estimates for most solitary species with low to moderate home range sizes. However, these methods assume independence of captures among individuals, an assumption that is clearly violated in social species that show fission-fusion dynamics, such as the Asian elephant. In the specific case of Asian elephants, doubts have been raised about the accuracy of population size estimates. More importantly, the potential problem for the use of mark-recapture methods posed by social organization in general has not been systematically addressed. We developed an individual-based simulation framework to systematically examine the potential effects of type of social organization, as well as other factors such as trap density and arrangement, spatial scale of sampling, and population density, on bias in population sizes estimated by POPAN, Robust Design, and Robust Design with detection heterogeneity. In the present study, we ran simulations with biological, demographic and ecological parameters relevant to Asian elephant populations, but the simulation framework is easily extended to address questions relevant to other social species. We collected capture history data from the simulations, and used those data to test for bias in population size estimation. Social organization significantly affected bias in most analyses, but the effect sizes were variable, depending on other factors. Social organization tended to introduce large bias when trap arrangement was uniform and sampling effort was low. POPAN clearly outperformed the two Robust Design models we tested, yielding close to zero bias if traps were arranged at random in the study area, and when population density and trap density were not too low. Social organization did not have a major effect on bias for these parameter combinations at which POPAN gave more or less unbiased population size estimates. Therefore, the effect of social organization on bias in population estimation could be removed by using POPAN with specific parameter combinations, to obtain population size estimates in a social species. PMID:28306735

The Evolution of Grain Size Distribution in Explosive Rock Fragmentation - Sequential Fragmentation Theory Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheu, B.; Fowler, A. C.

2015-12-01

Fragmentation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in many natural and engineering systems. It is the process by which an initially competent medium, solid or liquid, is broken up into a population of constituents. Examples occur in collisions and impacts of asteroids/meteorites, explosion driven fragmentation of munitions on a battlefield, as well as of magma in a volcanic conduit causing explosive volcanic eruptions and break-up of liquid drops. Besides the mechanism of fragmentation the resulting frequency-size distribution of the generated constituents is of central interest. Initially their distributions were fitted empirically using lognormal, Rosin-Rammler and Weibull distributions (e.g. Brown & Wohletz 1995). The sequential fragmentation theory (Brown 1989, Wohletz at al. 1989, Wohletz & Brown 1995) and the application of fractal theory to fragmentation products (Turcotte 1986, Perfect 1997, Perugini & Kueppers 2012) attempt to overcome this shortcoming by providing a more physical basis for the applied distribution. Both rely on an at least partially scale-invariant and thus self-similar random fragmentation process. Here we provide a stochastic model for the evolution of grain size distribution during the explosion process. Our model is based on laboratory experiments in which volcanic rock samples explode naturally when rapidly depressurized from initial pressures of several MPa to ambient conditions. The physics governing this fragmentation process has been successfully modelled and the observed fragmentation pattern could be numerically reproduced (Fowler et al. 2010). The fragmentation of these natural rocks leads to grain size distributions which vary depending on the experimental starting conditions. Our model provides a theoretical description of these different grain size distributions. Our model combines a sequential model of the type outlined by Turcotte (1986), but generalized to cater for the explosive process appropriate here, in particular by including in the description of the fracturing events in which the rock fragments, with a recipe for the production of fines, as observed in the experiments. To our knowledge, this implementation of a deterministic fracturing process into a stochastic (sequential) model is unique, further it provides the model with some forecasting power.

Renesting by dusky Canada geese on the Copper River Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fondell, Thomas F.; Grand, James B.; Miller, David A.W.; Anthony, R. Michael

2006-01-01

The population of dusky Canada geese (Branta canadensis occidentalis; hereafter duskies) breeding on the Copper River Delta (CRD), Alaska, USA, has been in long-term decline, largely as a result of reduced productivity. Estimates of renesting rates by duskies may be useful for adjusting estimates of the size of the breeding population derived from aerial surveys and for understanding population dynamics. We used a marked population of dusky females to obtain estimates of renesting propensity and renesting interval on the CRD, 1999–2000. Continuation nests, replacement nests initiated without a break in the laying sequence, resulted only after first nests were destroyed in the laying stage with ≤4 eggs laid. Renesting propensity declined with nest age from 72% in mid-laying to 30% in early incubation. Between first nests and renests, mean interval was 11.9 ± 0.6 days, mean distance was 74.5 m (range 0–214 m), and clutch size declined 0.9 ± 0.4 eggs. We incorporated our renesting estimates and available estimates of other nesting parameters into an individual-based model to predict the proportion of first nests, continuation nests, and renests, and to examine female success on the CRD, 1997–2000. Our model predicted that 19–36% of nests each year were continuation nests and renests. Also, through 15 May (the approx. date of breeding ground surveys), 1.1–1.3 nests were initiated per female. Thus, the number of nests per female would have a significant, though relatively consistent, effect on adjusting the relation between numbers of nests found on ground surveys versus numbers of birds seen during aerial surveys. We also suggest a method that managers could use to predict nests per female using nest success of early nests. Our model predicted that relative to observed estimates of nest success, female success was 32–100% greater, due to replacement nests. Thus, although nest success remains low, production for duskies was higher than previously thought. For dusky Canada geese, managers need to consider both continuation nests and renests in designing surveys and in calculating adjustment factors for the expansion of aerial survey data using nest densities.

Improved population estimates through the use of auxiliary information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.; Ralph, C.J.; Scott, J.M.

1981-01-01

When estimating the size of a population of birds, the investigator may have, in addition to an estimator based on a statistical sample, information on one of several auxiliary variables, such as: (1) estimates of the population made on previous occasions, (2) measures of habitat variables associated with the size of the population, and (3) estimates of the population sizes of other species that correlate with the species of interest. Although many studies have described the relationships between each of these kinds of data and the population size to be estimated, very little work has been done to improve the estimator by incorporating such auxiliary information. A statistical methodology termed 'empirical Bayes' seems to be appropriate to these situations. The potential that empirical Bayes methodology has for improved estimation of the population size of the Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is explored. In the example considered, three empirical Bayes estimators were found to reduce the error by one-fourth to one-half of that of the usual estimator.

Relating Linear and Volumetric Variables Through Body Scanning to Improve Human Interfaces in Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Margerum, Sarah E.; Ferrer, Mike A.; Young, Karen S.; Rajulu, Sudhakar

2010-01-01

Designing space suits and vehicles for the diverse human population present unique challenges for the methods of traditional anthropometry. Space suits are bulky and allow the operator to shift position within the suit and inhibit the ability to identify body landmarks. Limited suit sizing options also cause variability in fit and performance between similarly sized individuals. Space vehicles are restrictive in volume in both the fit and the ability to collect data. NASA's Anthropometric and Biomechanics Facility (ABF) has utilized 3D scanning to shift from traditional linear anthropometry to explore and examine volumetric capabilities to provide anthropometric solutions for design. Overall, the key goals are to improve the human-system performance and develop new processes to aid in the design and evaluation of space systems. Four case studies are presented that illustrate the shift from purely linear analyses to an augmented volumetric toolset to predict and analyze the human within the space suit and vehicle. The first case study involves the calculation of maximal head volume to estimate total free volume in the helmet for proper air exchange. Traditional linear measurements resulted in an inaccurate representation of the head shape, yet limited data exists for the determination of a large head volume. Steps were first taken to identify and classify a maximum head volume and the resulting comparisons to the estimate are presented in this paper. This study illustrates the gap between linear components of anthropometry and the need for overall volume metrics in order to provide solutions. A second case study examines the overlay of the space suit scans and components onto scanned individuals to quantify fit and clearance to aid in sizing the suit to the individual. Restrictions in space suit size availability present unique challenges to optimally fit the individual within a limited sizing range while maintaining performance. Quantification of the clearance and fit between similarly sized individuals is critical in providing a greater understanding of the human body's function within the suit. The third case study presented in this paper explores the development of a conformal seat pan using scanning techniques, and details the challenges of volumetric analyses that were overcome in order to develop a universal seat pan that can be utilized across the entire user population. The final case study explores expanding volumetric capabilities through generation of boundary manikins. Boundary manikins are representative individuals from the population of interest that represent the extremes of the population spectrum. The ABF developed a technique to take three-dimensional scans of individuals and manipulate the scans to reflect the boundary manikins' anthropometry. In essence, this process generates a representative three-dimensional scan of an individual from anthropometry, using another individual's scanned image. The results from this process can be used in design process modeling and initial suit sizing work as a three dimensional, realistic example of individuals from the population, maintaining the variability between and correlation to the relevant dimensions of interest.

Size-density scaling in protists and the links between consumer-resource interaction parameters.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Vasseur, David A

2012-11-01

Recent work indicates that the interaction between body-size-dependent demographic processes can generate macroecological patterns such as the scaling of population density with body size. In this study, we evaluate this possibility for grazing protists and also test whether demographic parameters in these models are correlated after controlling for body size. We compiled data on the body-size dependence of consumer-resource interactions and population density for heterotrophic protists grazing algae in laboratory studies. We then used nested dynamic models to predict both the height and slope of the scaling relationship between population density and body size for these protists. We also controlled for consumer size and assessed links between model parameters. Finally, we used the models and the parameter estimates to assess the individual- and population-level dependence of resource use on body-size and prey-size selection. The predicted size-density scaling for all models matched closely to the observed scaling, and the simplest model was sufficient to predict the pattern. Variation around the mean size-density scaling relationship may be generated by variation in prey productivity and area of capture, but residuals are relatively insensitive to variation in prey size selection. After controlling for body size, many consumer-resource interaction parameters were correlated, and a positive correlation between residual prey size selection and conversion efficiency neutralizes the apparent fitness advantage of taking large prey. Our results indicate that widespread community-level patterns can be explained with simple population models that apply consistently across a range of sizes. They also indicate that the parameter space governing the dynamics and the steady states in these systems is structured such that some parts of the parameter space are unlikely to represent real systems. Finally, predator-prey size ratios represent a kind of conundrum, because they are widely observed but apparently have little influence on population size and fitness, at least at this level of organization. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Estimating total population size for Songbirds

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart

2005-01-01

A conviction has developed during the past few years within the avian conservation community that estimates of total population size are needed for many species, especially ones that warrant conservation action. For example, the recently completed monitoring plans for North American shorebirds and landbirds establish estimating population size as a major objective....

Validation of prospective portion size and latency to eat as measures of reactivity to snack foods.

PubMed

van den Akker, Karolien; Bongers, Peggy; Hanssen, Imke; Jansen, Anita

2017-09-01

In experimental studies that investigate reactivity to the sight and smell of highly palatable snack foods, ad libitum food intake is commonly used as a behavioural outcome measure. However, this measure has several drawbacks. The current study investigated two intake-related measures not yet validated for food cue exposure research involving common snack foods: prospective portion size and latency to eat. We aimed to validate these measures by assessing prospective portion size and eating latencies in female undergraduate students who either underwent snack food exposure or a control exposure. Furthermore, we correlated prospective portion size and latency to eat with commonly used measures of food cue reactivity, i.e., self-reported desire to eat, salivation, and ad libitum food intake. Results showed increases in prospective portion size after food cue exposure but not after control exposure. Latency to eat did not differ between the two conditions. Prospective portion size correlated positively with desire to eat and food intake, and negatively with latency to eat. Latency to eat was also negatively correlated with desire to eat and food intake. It is concluded that the current study provides initial evidence for the prospective portion size task as a valid measure of reactivity to snack foods in a Dutch female and mostly healthy weight student population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of growth rate, size, and light availability on tree survival across life stages: a demographic analysis accounting for missing values and small sample sizes.

PubMed

Moustakas, Aristides; Evans, Matthew R

2015-02-28

Plant survival is a key factor in forest dynamics and survival probabilities often vary across life stages. Studies specifically aimed at assessing tree survival are unusual and so data initially designed for other purposes often need to be used; such data are more likely to contain errors than data collected for this specific purpose. We investigate the survival rates of ten tree species in a dataset designed to monitor growth rates. As some individuals were not included in the census at some time points we use capture-mark-recapture methods both to allow us to account for missing individuals, and to estimate relocation probabilities. Growth rates, size, and light availability were included as covariates in the model predicting survival rates. The study demonstrates that tree mortality is best described as constant between years and size-dependent at early life stages and size independent at later life stages for most species of UK hardwood. We have demonstrated that even with a twenty-year dataset it is possible to discern variability both between individuals and between species. Our work illustrates the potential utility of the method applied here for calculating plant population dynamics parameters in time replicated datasets with small sample sizes and missing individuals without any loss of sample size, and including explanatory covariates.

What`s normal?: Body condition in Great Lakes herring gulls

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hebert, C.E.; Shutt, J.L.

1994-12-31

The Canadian Wildlife Service`s herring gull (Larus argentatus) surveillance program has demonstrated the usefulness of this species as a monitor of spatial and temporal trends in contaminant levels. However, the effects of environmental contaminants on gulls are difficult to distinguish from the effects of other anthropogenic stressors such as the introduction of exotic species, overfishing and habitat loss. To understand the relative importance of these factors in regulating the success of individual gulls and, hence, gull populations, the authors must first have a better understanding of what constitutes a ``normal`` bird. Improving the ability to differentiate between normal and abnormalmore » birds is crucial in any health assessment of Great Lakes gulls. Body condition has been shown to be an important measure of a bird`s ability to provide energy for egg production, migration etc. Numerous approaches have been used to assess condition, most of which required that the bird be sacrificed. In this study, the authors describe a nonlethal technique to quantify body condition in herring gulls. Multivariate statistics are used to quantify body size, relate body size to total mass and from that, determine relative body condition. Initially, body condition is assessed in gulls from a reference colony where reproductive success is normal and anthropogenic influences are limited. This reference population is then used as a baseline against which other gull populations are compared.« less

Inbreeding and reproduction in endangered ungulates: preservation of genetic variation through the Organization of Genetic Resource Banks.

PubMed

Roldan, E R S; Gomendio, M; Garde, J J; Espeso, G; Ledda, S; Berlinguer, F; del Olmo, A; Soler, A J; Arregui, L; Crespo, C; González, R

2006-10-01

There is a constant increase in the number of species suffering marked reductions in population size. This reduction in size and the lack of genetic flow may lead to a decrease in genetic variability and to matings between close relatives (i.e. inbreeding) with an ensuing reduction in fitness. It is thus important to understand the mechanism underlying the deleterious effects of inbreeding and to develop reproductive biotechnologies that will allow the reduction of inbreeding depression by facilitating gene exchange between populations. The study of three endangered species of gazelles, Cuvier's gazelle (Gazella cuvieri), Mohor gazelle (Gazella dama mhorr) and dorcas gazelle (Gazella dorcas neglecta) has revealed that inbreeding negatively affects several semen parameters (motility, sperm morphology, acrosome integrity). Semen cryopreservation has been achieved in the three species but success varies depending on the diluent employed and the level of inbreeding. Artificial insemination of Mohor gazelles have led to the birth of the first gazelle born using frozen-thawed semen but improvements are needed before this technology can be applied on a routine basis for the genetic management of the populations. Collection of oocytes after ovarian stimulation, followed by in vitro maturation, fertilization and culture has met with some initial success in the Mohor gazelle. These, together with other reproductive technologies, will offer an invaluable help in preserving the maximum of genetic diversity of these and related endangered ungulate species.

Invasive black spiny-tailed iguanas (Ctenosaura similis) on Gasparilla Island, Florida, USA.

PubMed

Avery, Michael L; Tillman, Eric A; Spurfeld, Conny; Engeman, Richard M; Maciejewski, Kelin P; Brown, Jessica D; Fetzer, Emily A

2014-11-01

The native range of Ctenosaura similis extends from southern Mexico through Panama. From an initial introduction of 3 animals in 1979, the species now numbers in the thousands on Gasparilla Island in southwest Florida. In response to complaints of property damage from residents and threats to native species, local officials and the US Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services began a removal program in 2008. Through 2011, trappers removed 9467 ctenosaurs. The number removed declined from 32 iguanas/day in 2008 to 1.9 iguanas/day in 2011 despite no easing of the control effort. We necropsied 2757 ctenosaurs to document aspects of their natural history. Females outnumbered males overall, although the largest size class (>300 mm snout-vent length) included 32 males and just 2 females. Reproduction was seasonal. We found oviducal eggs in females from early Apr to early Jun, approximately 2 months later than C. similis in its native range. We trapped hatchlings from late Jul to early Oct coincident with the summer rainy season. Clutch size increased with female body size, with 62 being the largest clutch size recorded. In general, the biology of the invasive population on Gasparilla Island resembles native C. similis populations in Central America, except for the lack of large individuals. We suggest that shorter day length and colder temperatures create environmental conditions that are suboptimal for individual growth compared to those in the native range. © 2013 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Interannual variability in the skate assemblage on the South Patagonian shelf and slope.

PubMed

Winter, A; Pompert, J; Arkhipkin, A; Brewin, P E

2015-12-01

Observer data from the commercial fishery on the Patagonian shelf and slope around the Falkland Islands (home to an assemblage of >16 skate species (Rajiformes), for which commercial catches have been recorded since 1987), as well as survey data from an area closed to skate target fishing after exploitation, were summarized by species to examine changes in the population status of individual skate species. Total skate catch per unit effort increased significantly in the target fishery since 1994, and four species have made up >85% of all skate catch. Bathyraja brachyurops and Zearaja chilensis increased significantly in catch proportions and abundance from 1994 to 2013. Bathyraja albomaculata and Bathyraja griseocauda decreased significantly before rebounding with trends of increasing abundance. Concurrently, B. brachyurops and Z. chilensis showed decreasing trends in size at 50% maturity in areas where skates continue to be targeted commercially. The increasing abundances and concomitant reductions in size at maturity of B. brachyurops and Z. chilensis suggest either plasticity in life-history traits or a density-dependent growth response to fishing pressure. Bathyraja griseocauda decreased in size at 50% maturity in the area that was closed to skate target fishing, where it was initially larger, but only decreased to the same average size as in the commercially targeted areas. Bathyraja albomaculata and Z. chilensis are IUCN-listed as vulnerable and B. griseocauda is listed as endangered, but their abundance trends since 1994 indicate that these populations are not declining in Falkland waters. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pleasants, John M.; Zalucki, Myron P.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Brower, Lincoln P.; Taylor, Orley R.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects.

PubMed

Pleasants, John M; Zalucki, Myron P; Oberhauser, Karen S; Brower, Lincoln P; Taylor, Orley R; Thogmartin, Wayne E

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

Group selections among laboratory populations of Tribolium.

PubMed

Wade, M J

1976-12-01

Selection at the population level or group selection is defined as genetic change that is brought about or maintained by the differential extinction and/or proliferation of populations. Group selection for both increased and decreased adult population size was carried out among laboratory populations of Tribolium castaneum at 37-day intervals. The effect of individual selection within populations on adult population size was evaluated in an additional control series of populations. The response in the group selection treatments occurred rapidly, within three or four generations, and was large in magnitude, at times differing from the controls by over 200%. This response to selection at the populational level occurred despite strong individual selection which caused a decline in the mean size of the control populations from over 200 adults to near 50 adults in nine 37-day intervals. "Assay" experiments indicated that selective changes in fecundity, developmental time, body weight, and cannibalism rates were responsible in part for the observed treatment differences in adult population size. These findings have implications in terms of speciation in organisms whose range is composed of many partially isolated local populations.

Evolutionary dynamics of fluctuating populations with strong mutualism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David

2013-03-01

Evolutionary game theory with finite interacting populations is receiving increased attention, including subtle phenomena associated with number fluctuations, i.e., ``genetic drift.'' Models of cooperation and competition often utilize a simplified Moran model, with a strictly fixed total population size. We explore a more general evolutionary model with independent fluctuations in the numbers of two distinct species, in a regime characterized by ``strong mutualism.'' The model has two absorbing states, each corresponding to fixation of one of the two species, and allows exploration of the interplay between growth, competition, and mutualism. When mutualism is favored, number fluctuations eventually drive the system away from a stable fixed point, characterized by cooperation, to one of the absorbing states. Well-mixed populations will thus be taken over by a single species in a finite time, despite the bias towards cooperation. We calculate both the fixation probability and the mean fixation time as a function of the initial conditions and carrying capacities in the strong mutualism regime, using the method of matched asymptotic expansions. Our results are compared to computer simulations.

Demographic and genetic status of an isolated population of bog turtles (Glyptemys muhlenbergii): Implications for managing small populations of long-lived animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pittman, Shannon E.; King, T.L.; Faurby, S.; Dorcas, M.E.

2011-01-01

In this study, we sought to determine the population stability and genetic diversity of one isolated population of the federally-threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) in North Carolina. Using capture-recapture data, we estimated adult survival and population growth rate from 1992 to 2007. We found that the population decreased from an estimated 36 adult turtles in 1994 to approximately 11 adult turtles in 2007. We found a constant adult survival of 0. 893 (SE = 0. 018, 95% confidence interval, 0. 853-0. 924) between 1992 and 2007. Using 18 microsatellite markers, we compared the genetic status of this population with five other bog turtle populations. The target population displayed allelic richness (4. 8 ?? 0. 5) and observed heterozygosity (0. 619 ?? 0. 064) within the range of the other bog turtle populations. Coalescent analysis of population growth rate, effective population size, and timing of population structuring event also indicated the genetics of the target population were comparable to the other populations studied. Estimates of effective population size were a proportion of the census size in all populations except the target population, in which the effective population size was larger than the census size (30 turtles vs. 11 turtles). We attribute the high genetic diversity in the target population to the presence of multiple generations of old turtles. This study illustrates that the demographic status of populations of long-lived species may not be reflected genetically if a decline occurred recently. Consequently, the genetic integrity of populations of long-lived animals experiencing rapid demographic bottlenecks may be preserved through conservation efforts effective in addressing demographic problems. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Please don't misuse the museum: 'declines' may be statistical.

PubMed

Campbell Grant, Evan H

2015-03-01

Detecting declines in populations at broad spatial scales takes enormous effort, and long-term data are often more sparse than is desired for estimating trends, identifying drivers for population changes, framing conservation decisions, or taking management actions. Museum records and historic data can be available at large scales across multiple decades, and are therefore an attractive source of information on the comparative status of populations. However, changes in populations may be real (e.g. in response to environmental covariates) or resulting from variation in our ability to observe the true population response (also possibly related to environmental covariates). This is a (statistical) nuisance in understanding the true status of a population. Evaluating statistical hypotheses alongside more interesting ecological ones is important in the appropriate use of museum data. Two statistical considerations are generally applicable to use of museum records: first without initial random sampling, comparison with contemporary results cannot provide inference to the entire range of a species, and second the availability of only some individuals in a population may respond to environmental changes. Changes in the availability of individuals may reduce the proportion of the population that is present and able to be counted on a given survey event, resulting in an apparent decline even when population size is stable. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Population-Based Resequencing of Experimentally Evolved Populations Reveals the Genetic Basis of Body Size Variation in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Turner, Thomas L.; Stewart, Andrew D.; Fields, Andrew T.; Rice, William R.; Tarone, Aaron M.

2011-01-01

Body size is a classic quantitative trait with evolutionarily significant variation within many species. Locating the alleles responsible for this variation would help understand the maintenance of variation in body size in particular, as well as quantitative traits in general. However, successful genome-wide association of genotype and phenotype may require very large sample sizes if alleles have low population frequencies or modest effects. As a complementary approach, we propose that population-based resequencing of experimentally evolved populations allows for considerable power to map functional variation. Here, we use this technique to investigate the genetic basis of natural variation in body size in Drosophila melanogaster. Significant differentiation of hundreds of loci in replicate selection populations supports the hypothesis that the genetic basis of body size variation is very polygenic in D. melanogaster. Significantly differentiated variants are limited to single genes at some loci, allowing precise hypotheses to be formed regarding causal polymorphisms, while other significant regions are large and contain many genes. By using significantly associated polymorphisms as a priori candidates in follow-up studies, these data are expected to provide considerable power to determine the genetic basis of natural variation in body size. PMID:21437274

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations

PubMed Central

Anufriieva, Elena V.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

2014-01-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, asignificant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuatedbetween 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the paritiesof these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales. PMID:24668656

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations.

PubMed

Anufriieva, Elena V; Shadrin, Nickolai V

2014-03-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, a significant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuated between 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the parities of these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales.

Is alloparenting helpful for Mednyi Island arctic foxes, Alopex lagopus semenovi?

PubMed

Kruchenkova, Elena P; Goltsman, Michael; Sergeev, Sergei; Macdonald, David W

2009-04-01

The Arctic Fox Alopex lagopus semenovi population on Mednyi Island is completely isolated and subsists largely by scavenging on seabird colonies, which have remained abundant and spatio-temporally predictable for many years. We compared population data at the beginning of 1976/1978 and some time after 1994-2005, finding an 85% decline in fox numbers due to disease, to assess the effect of population size on social structure. A total of 81 groups of known size and composition was observed during this 29-year period. Overall, helpers (usually non-lactating yearling females) occurred in 25.7% of groups, and in 32.4% of groups there were two or three lactating females. Female engagement in alloparental behaviour decreased, but not statistically significantly, after the decline in population density. Total food availability was apparently constant throughout the study period, and therefore, the amount available per individual was much higher later in the study. Both communally nursing females and helpers brought food and helped to guard the litter. However, the benefits of communal rearing were unclear. While cubs were left without guards significantly more rarely in the groups with an additional adult, the number of cubs weaned per lactating female was greater in groups with one (3.93 +/- 1.60), as opposed to two or three (3.06 +/- 0.92), lactating females. Survival of cubs to 1 year of age in the groups with two lactating females and/or with helpers was lower than that in the families with one lactating female without helpers (22.2% vs 32.2%). Fewer second-generation litters were born to foxes produced by composite families than to those produced by pairs. Reproductive adults producing by pairs had, on average, 1.23 (+/-1.72) second-generation litters. In groups that initially included additional adults, the average number of second-generation litters per reproductive female was 0.21 (+/-0.49) and 0.46 (+/-0.81) litters per male. Thus, according to three measures, increased group size had no apparent positive impact on reproductive success. The increased parental investment and enhanced guarding of the cubs in the larger families could be beneficial under conditions of high population density and a saturated biotope to which the island fox population was presumably adapted before the population crash in the late 1970s.

Is alloparenting helpful for Mednyi Island arctic foxes, Alopex lagopus semenovi?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruchenkova, Elena P.; Goltsman, Michael; Sergeev, Sergei; MacDonald, David W.

2009-04-01

The Arctic Fox Alopex lagopus semenovi population on Mednyi Island is completely isolated and subsists largely by scavenging on seabird colonies, which have remained abundant and spatio-temporally predictable for many years. We compared population data at the beginning of 1976/1978 and some time after 1994-2005, finding an 85% decline in fox numbers due to disease, to assess the effect of population size on social structure. A total of 81 groups of known size and composition was observed during this 29-year period. Overall, helpers (usually non-lactating yearling females) occurred in 25.7% of groups, and in 32.4% of groups there were two or three lactating females. Female engagement in alloparental behaviour decreased, but not statistically significantly, after the decline in population density. Total food availability was apparently constant throughout the study period, and therefore, the amount available per individual was much higher later in the study. Both communally nursing females and helpers brought food and helped to guard the litter. However, the benefits of communal rearing were unclear. While cubs were left without guards significantly more rarely in the groups with an additional adult, the number of cubs weaned per lactating female was greater in groups with one (3.93 ± 1.60), as opposed to two or three (3.06 ± 0.92), lactating females. Survival of cubs to 1 year of age in the groups with two lactating females and/or with helpers was lower than that in the families with one lactating female without helpers (22.2% vs 32.2%). Fewer second-generation litters were born to foxes produced by composite families than to those produced by pairs. Reproductive adults producing by pairs had, on average, 1.23 (±1.72) second-generation litters. In groups that initially included additional adults, the average number of second-generation litters per reproductive female was 0.21 (±0.49) and 0.46 (±0.81) litters per male. Thus, according to three measures, increased group size had no apparent positive impact on reproductive success. The increased parental investment and enhanced guarding of the cubs in the larger families could be beneficial under conditions of high population density and a saturated biotope to which the island fox population was presumably adapted before the population crash in the late 1970s.

Exploring the effects of temperature and grain size on plumes associated with PDCs through analogue experimentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, S. J.; Eychenne, J.; Rust, A.

2015-12-01

Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) often loft upwards into convective, buoyant co-PDC plumes. Recent analogue experiments using a unimodal grain size of 22 ± 6 μm (Andrews & Manga, 2012) have established that plume generation is aided by PDC interaction with a topographic barrier. Here, we have simulated the onset of co-PDC plumes from the collapse of concentrated particle-gas mixtures comprised of unimodal or bimodal grain size distributions (GSD) of glass beads, using combinations of lognormal populations with modes of 35, 195 and 590 μm. The collapse of a mixture, with constant mass 2950 ± 150 g, induced the propagation of a gravity current channelized down a 13° sloping tank; a barrier in the tank caused the gravity current to produce a plume of particles. Experiments were recorded with high speed visible and thermal-infrared cameras. Initial GSD and temperature of the mixture were varied to assess the effects of the addition of a coarser component on plume generation. Analogue co-PDC plumes were only produced when a proportion of fine grains (35 μm) was present in the initial granular mixture. Sampling of the particles entrained in the co-PDC plumes revealed that fine grains (35 μm) are preferentially lofted, although a few coarser particles (195 or 590 μm) are also entrained in the co-PDC plumes and settle closer to the area of uplift. Increasing the initial temperature of the mixture increases plume height measured at 1 and 2s after onset; this is supported by repeat experiments at specific conditions. Bimodal mixtures containing both fine (35 μm) and coarser (195 or 590 μm) grains result in plume heights and initial flow velocities higher than observed in unimodal fine-grained experiments of the same total mass of particles. Repeat experiments identify the natural variability in plume generation under the same nominal conditions, which is likely due to the combined variations of momentum during flow propagation and heat-driven buoyancy, as well as the homogeneity of the initial particle mixture.

The effects of atomoxetine on emotional control in adults with ADHD: An integrated analysis of multicenter studies.

PubMed

Asherson, P; Stes, S; Nilsson Markhed, M; Berggren, L; Svanborg, P; Kutzelnigg, A; Deberdt, W

2015-06-01

To investigate the effects of atomoxetine on emotional control in adults with ADHD. We performed an integrated analysis using individual patient data pooled from three Eli Lilly-sponsored studies. An integrated analysis can be viewed as a meta-analysis of individual patient-level data, rather than study-level summary data. Two populations were identified: a large sample of patients with pre-treatment baseline data (the "overall population"; n=2846); and a subset of these patients with placebo-controlled efficacy data from baseline to 10 or 12 weeks after initiating treatment (the "placebo-controlled population"; n=829). At baseline, in the overall population, ∼50% of ADHD patients had BRIEF-AS (Behavior Rating Inventory of Executive Function-Adult Version Self-Report) Emotional control subscores between 21 and 30, compared with ∼10% of normative subjects in the BRIEF-A manual. At endpoint, in the placebo-controlled population, atomoxetine led to a small (effect size 0.19) but significant (P=0.013) treatment effect for emotional control. The effect size was 0.32 in patients with BRIEF-AS Emotional control scores>20 at baseline. Improvements in emotional control correlated with improvements in the core ADHD symptoms and quality-of-life. As deficient emotional control is associated with impaired social, educational and occupational functioning over and above that explained by core ADHD symptoms alone, improvements in emotional control may be clinically relevant. At baseline, adults with ADHD were more likely to have impaired emotional control than normative subjects. In the adult ADHD patients, atomoxetine treatment was associated with improvements in emotional control, as well as in core ADHD symptoms and quality-of-life. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

On the probability of cure for heavy-ion radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanin, Leonid; Zaider, Marco

2014-07-01

The probability of a cure in radiation therapy (RT)—viewed as the probability of eventual extinction of all cancer cells—is unobservable, and the only way to compute it is through modeling the dynamics of cancer cell population during and post-treatment. The conundrum at the heart of biophysical models aimed at such prospective calculations is the absence of information on the initial size of the subpopulation of clonogenic cancer cells (also called stem-like cancer cells), that largely determines the outcome of RT, both in an individual and population settings. Other relevant parameters (e.g. potential doubling time, cell loss factor and survival probability as a function of dose) are, at least in principle, amenable to empirical determination. In this article we demonstrate that, for heavy-ion RT, microdosimetric considerations (justifiably ignored in conventional RT) combined with an expression for the clone extinction probability obtained from a mechanistic model of radiation cell survival lead to useful upper bounds on the size of the pre-treatment population of clonogenic cancer cells as well as upper and lower bounds on the cure probability. The main practical impact of these limiting values is the ability to make predictions about the probability of a cure for a given population of patients treated to newer, still unexplored treatment modalities from the empirically determined probability of a cure for the same or similar population resulting from conventional low linear energy transfer (typically photon/electron) RT. We also propose that the current trend to deliver a lower total dose in a smaller number of fractions with larger-than-conventional doses per fraction has physical limits that must be understood before embarking on a particular treatment schedule.

An Appraisal of Female Sex Work in Nigeria - Implications for Designing and Scaling Up HIV Prevention Programmes

PubMed Central

Ikpeazu, Akudo; Momah-Haruna, Amaka; Madu Mari, Baba; Thompson, Laura H.; Ogungbemi, Kayode; Daniel, Uduak; Aboki, Hafsatu; Isac, Shajy; Gorgens, Marelize; Mziray, Elizabeth; Njie, Ndella; Akala, Francisca Ayodeji; Emmanuel, Faran; Odek, Willis Omondi; Blanchard, James F.

2014-01-01

Background The HIV epidemic in Nigeria is complex with diverse factors driving the epidemic. Accordingly, Nigeria's National Agency for the Control of AIDS is coordinating a large-scale initiative to conduct HIV epidemic appraisals across all states. These appraisals will help to better characterize the drivers of the epidemic and ensure that the HIV prevention programmes match the local epidemic context, with resources allocated to interventions that have the greatest impact locally. Currently, the mapping and size estimation of Female Sex Workers (FSWs) - a major component of the appraisal has been completed in seven states. These states are using the data generated to plan, prioritize and scale-up sub-national HIV prevention programmes. Methodology It involved a two-level process of identifying and validating locations where FSWs solicit and/or meet clients (“hotspots”). In the first level, secondary key informants were interviewed to collect information about the geographic location and description of the hotspots. For the second level, FSWs were interviewed at each hotspot and information on population size estimates, typologies and operational dynamics of the FSWs were collected. Results Across the seven states, a total of 17,266 secondary key informants and 5,732 FSWs were interviewed. 10,233 hotspots were identified with an estimated 126,489 FSWs ranging from 5,920 in Anambra to 46,691 in Lagos. The most common hotspots were bars/nightclubs (30%), hotels/lodges (29.6%), streets (16.6%), and brothels (14.6%). Furthermore, the population density of FSWs (per thousand adult men) across the states ranged from 2 in Anambra to 17 in the Federal Capital Territory. Conclusion FSW populations in Nigeria are large and diverse, with substantial differences between and within states. Improved understanding of the location, population size, density, organizational typologies and clients of sex work has informed and is central to Nigeria's planning process for scaling up focused HIV prevention programmes. PMID:25118691

An appraisal of female sex work in Nigeria--implications for designing and scaling up HIV prevention programmes.

PubMed

Ikpeazu, Akudo; Momah-Haruna, Amaka; Madu Mari, Baba; Thompson, Laura H; Ogungbemi, Kayode; Daniel, Uduak; Aboki, Hafsatu; Isac, Shajy; Gorgens, Marelize; Mziray, Elizabeth; Njie, Ndella; Akala, Francisca Ayodeji; Emmanuel, Faran; Odek, Willis Omondi; Blanchard, James F

2014-01-01

The HIV epidemic in Nigeria is complex with diverse factors driving the epidemic. Accordingly, Nigeria's National Agency for the Control of AIDS is coordinating a large-scale initiative to conduct HIV epidemic appraisals across all states. These appraisals will help to better characterize the drivers of the epidemic and ensure that the HIV prevention programmes match the local epidemic context, with resources allocated to interventions that have the greatest impact locally. Currently, the mapping and size estimation of Female Sex Workers (FSWs)--a major component of the appraisal has been completed in seven states. These states are using the data generated to plan, prioritize and scale-up sub-national HIV prevention programmes. It involved a two-level process of identifying and validating locations where FSWs solicit and/or meet clients ("hotspots"). In the first level, secondary key informants were interviewed to collect information about the geographic location and description of the hotspots. For the second level, FSWs were interviewed at each hotspot and information on population size estimates, typologies and operational dynamics of the FSWs were collected. Across the seven states, a total of 17,266 secondary key informants and 5,732 FSWs were interviewed. 10,233 hotspots were identified with an estimated 126,489 FSWs ranging from 5,920 in Anambra to 46,691 in Lagos. The most common hotspots were bars/nightclubs (30%), hotels/lodges (29.6%), streets (16.6%), and brothels (14.6%). Furthermore, the population density of FSWs (per thousand adult men) across the states ranged from 2 in Anambra to 17 in the Federal Capital Territory. FSW populations in Nigeria are large and diverse, with substantial differences between and within states. Improved understanding of the location, population size, density, organizational typologies and clients of sex work has informed and is central to Nigeria's planning process for scaling up focused HIV prevention programmes.

Use of portable antennas to estimate abundance of PIT-tagged fish in small streams: Factors affecting detection probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Horton, Gregg E.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

2010-01-01

Portable passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antenna systems can be valuable in providing reliable estimates of the abundance of tagged Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in small streams under a wide range of conditions. We developed and employed PIT tag antenna wand techniques in two controlled experiments and an additional case study to examine the factors that influenced our ability to estimate population size. We used Pollock's robust-design capture–mark–recapture model to obtain estimates of the probability of first detection (p), the probability of redetection (c), and abundance (N) in the two controlled experiments. First, we conducted an experiment in which tags were hidden in fixed locations. Although p and c varied among the three observers and among the three passes that each observer conducted, the estimates of N were identical to the true values and did not vary among observers. In the second experiment using free-swimming tagged fish, p and c varied among passes and time of day. Additionally, estimates of N varied between day and night and among age-classes but were within 10% of the true population size. In the case study, we used the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model to examine the variation in p, and we compared counts of tagged fish found with the antenna wand with counts collected via electrofishing. In that study, we found that although p varied for age-classes, sample dates, and time of day, antenna and electrofishing estimates of N were similar, indicating that population size can be reliably estimated via PIT tag antenna wands. However, factors such as the observer, time of day, age of fish, and stream discharge can influence the initial and subsequent detection probabilities.

Population demographics of American eels Anguilla rostrata in two Arkansas, U.S.A., catchments that drain into the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Cox, C A; Quinn, J W; Lewis, L C; Adams, S R; Adams, G L

2016-03-01

The goal of this study was to compare American eel Anguilla rostrata life history in two inland river systems in Arkansas, U.S.A., that ultimately discharge into the Gulf of Mexico via the Mississippi River and the Red-Atchafalaya catchments. From 21 June 2011 to 24 April 2014, 238 yellow-phase A. rostrata were captured in the middle Ouachita River and tributaries using boat electrofishing and 39 in the lower White River using multiple sampling gears. Most of them were caught downstream of dams in both basins (61%). Medium-sized A. rostrata ranging from 225 to 350 mm total length (LT ) were the most abundant size group in the Ouachita River basin, but they were absent from the White River. Mean LT at age 4 years (i.e. youngest shared age) was 150 mm greater for the White River than the Ouachita River basin. Anguilla rostrata appeared to have a greater initial LT (i.e. minimum size upon arrival) in the White River that allowed them to reach a gonado-somatic index (IG ) of 1·5 up to 4 years earlier, and downstream migration appeared to occur 5 years earlier at 100 mm greater LT ; these differences may be related to increased river fragmentation by dams in the Ouachita River basin. Growth and maturation of A. rostrata in this study were more similar to southern populations along the Atlantic coast than other inland populations. Adult swimbladder nematodes Anguillicoloides crassus were not present in any of the 214 swimbladders inspected. Gulf of Mexico catchments may be valuable production areas for A. rostrata and data from these systems should be considered as range-wide protection and management plans are being developed. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Estimating total population size for adult female sea turtles: Accounting for non-nesters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Richardson, J.I.; Rees, Alan F.

2008-01-01

Assessment of population size and changes therein is important to sea turtle management and population or life history research. Investigators might be interested in testing hypotheses about the effect of current population size or density (number of animals per unit resource) on future population processes. Decision makers might want to determine a level of allowable take of individual turtles of specified life stage. Nevertheless, monitoring most stages of sea turtle life histories is difficult, because obtaining access to individuals is difficult. Although in-water assessments are becoming more common, nesting females and their hatchlings remain the most accessible life stages. In some cases adult females of a given nesting population are sufficiently philopatric that the population itself can be well defined. If a well designed tagging study is conducted on this population, survival, breeding probability, and the size of the nesting population in a given year can be estimated. However, with published statistical methodology the size of the entire breeding population (including those females skipping nesting in that year) cannot be estimated without assuming that each adult female in this population has the same probability of nesting in a given year (even those that had just nested in the previous year). We present a method for estimating the total size of a breeding population (including nesters those skipping nesting) from a tagging study limited to the nesting population, allowing for the probability of nesting in a given year to depend on an individual's nesting status in the previous year (i.e., a Markov process). From this we further develop estimators for rate of growth from year to year in both nesting population and total breeding population, and the proportion of the breeding population that is breeding in a given year. We also discuss assumptions and apply these methods to a breeding population of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) from the Caribbean. We anticipate that this method could also be useful for in-water studies of well defined populations.

Detecting past changes of effective population size

PubMed Central

Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

2014-01-01

Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff. PMID:25067949

Body size and lean mass of brown bears across and within four diverse ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hilderbrand, Grant V.; Gustine, David; Mangipane, Buck A.; Joly, Kyle; Leacock, William; Mangipane, Lindsey S.; Erlenbach, Joy; Sorum, Mathew; Cameron, Matthew; Belant, Jerrold L.; Cambier, Troy

2018-01-01

Variation in body size across populations of brown bears (Ursus arctos) is largely a function of the availability and quality of nutritional resources while plasticity within populations reflects utilized niche width with implications for population resiliency. We assessed skull size, body length, and lean mass of adult female and male brown bears in four Alaskan study areas that differed in climate, primary food resources, population density, and harvest regime. Full body-frame size, as evidenced by asymptotic skull size and body length, was achieved by 8 to 14 years of age across populations and sexes. Lean body mass of both sexes continued to increase throughout their life. Differences between populations existed for all morphological measures in both sexes, bears in ecosystems with abundant salmon were generally larger. Within all populations, broad variation was seen in body size measures of adults with females displaying roughly a 2-fold difference in lean mass and males showing a 3- to 4-fold difference. The high level of intraspecific variation seen across and within populations suggests the presence of multiple life-history strategies and niche variation relative to resource partitioning, risk tolerance or aversion, and competition. Further, this level of variation indicates broad potential to adapt to changes within a given ecosystem and across the species’ range.

An Analysis of Respondent Driven Sampling with Injection Drug Users (IDU) in Albania and the Russian Federation

PubMed Central

Stormer, Ame; Tun, Waimar; Harxhi, Arjan; Bodanovskaia, Zinaida; Yakovleva, Anna; Rusakova, Maia; Levina, Olga; Bani, Roland; Rjepaj, Klodian; Bino, Silva

2006-01-01

Injection drug users in Tirana, Albania and St. Petersburg, Russia were recruited into a study assessing HIV-related behaviors and HIV serostatus using Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS), a peer-driven recruitment sampling strategy that results in a probability sample. (Salganik M, Heckathorn DD. Sampling and estimation in hidden populations using respondent-driven sampling. Sociol Method. 2004;34:193–239). This paper presents a comparison of RDS implementation, findings on network and recruitment characteristics, and lessons learned. Initiated with 13 to 15 seeds, approximately 200 IDUs were recruited within 8 weeks. Information resulting from RDS indicates that social network patterns from the two studies differ greatly. Female IDUs in Tirana had smaller network sizes than male IDUs, unlike in St. Petersburg where female IDUs had larger network sizes than male IDUs. Recruitment patterns in each country also differed by demographic categories. Recruitment analyses indicate that IDUs form socially distinct groups by sex in Tirana, whereas there was a greater degree of gender mixing patterns in St. Petersburg. RDS proved to be an effective means of surveying these hard-to-reach populations. PMID:17075727

The identity of Aplocheilus andamanicus (Köhler, 1906) (Teleostei: Cyprinodontiformes), an endemic Killifish from the Andaman Islands, with notes on Odontopsis armata van Hasselt.

PubMed

Katwate, Unmesh; Kumkar, Pradeep; Britz, Ralf; Raghavan, Rajeev; Dahanukar, Neelesh

2018-02-20

In his work on the fishes of the Andaman Islands, Francis Day (1870) collected large-sized specimens of Aplocheilus from the south Andamans. Despite differences in the size and dorsal-fin ray counts, Day refrained from recognising the Andaman Aplocheilus as a distinct species and considered it as Aplocheilus panchax, a species distributed in the Ganges delta and across the eastern coast of mainland India. However, Day mentioned the differences in fin-ray counts between these two populations. Subsequently Köhler (1906) described the Andaman population as Haplochilus andamanicus (now in Aplocheilus), referring to the diagnostic characters initially discovered by Day. This species failed to receive recognition from taxonomists, because of the uncertainty regarding the validity of the species and its questionable synonymy with A. panchax. In this study, based on morphological and molecular evidence, we demonstrate that A. andamanicus is indeed a distinct and valid species, which can easily be diagnosed from the widespread A. panchax. While resolving the identity of A. andamanicus, we also demonstrate that the congeners from southeast Asia form a genetically distinct group for which the name Odontopsis armata is available.

Challenges in reproducibility of genetic association studies: lessons learned from the obesity field.

PubMed

Li, A; Meyre, D

2013-04-01

A robust replication of initial genetic association findings has proved to be difficult in human complex diseases and more specifically in the obesity field. An obvious cause of non-replication in genetic association studies is the initial report of a false positive result, which can be explained by a non-heritable phenotype, insufficient sample size, improper correction for multiple testing, population stratification, technical biases, insufficient quality control or inappropriate statistical analyses. Replication may, however, be challenging even when the original study describes a true positive association. The reasons include underpowered replication samples, gene × gene, gene × environment interactions, genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity and subjective interpretation of data. In this review, we address classic pitfalls in genetic association studies and provide guidelines for proper discovery and replication genetic association studies with a specific focus on obesity.

Evolution of Particle Size Distributions in Fragmentation Over Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charalambous, C. A.; Pike, W. T.

2013-12-01

We present a new model of fragmentation based on a probabilistic calculation of the repeated fracture of a particle population. The resulting continuous solution, which is in closed form, gives the evolution of fragmentation products from an initial block, through a scale-invariant power-law relationship to a final comminuted powder. Models for the fragmentation of particles have been developed separately in mainly two different disciplines: the continuous integro-differential equations of batch mineral grinding (Reid, 1965) and the fractal analysis of geophysics (Turcotte, 1986) based on a discrete model with a single probability of fracture. The first gives a time-dependent development of the particle-size distribution, but has resisted a closed-form solution, while the latter leads to the scale-invariant power laws, but with no time dependence. Bird (2009) recently introduced a bridge between these two approaches with a step-wise iterative calculation of the fragmentation products. The development of the particle-size distribution occurs with discrete steps: during each fragmentation event, the particles will repeatedly fracture probabilistically, cascading down the length scales to a final size distribution reached after all particles have failed to further fragment. We have identified this process as the equivalent to a sequence of trials for each particle with a fixed probability of fragmentation. Although the resulting distribution is discrete, it can be reformulated as a continuous distribution in maturity over time and particle size. In our model, Turcotte's power-law distribution emerges at a unique maturation index that defines a regime boundary. Up to this index, the fragmentation is in an erosional regime with the initial particle size setting the scaling. Fragmentation beyond this index is in a regime of comminution with rebreakage of the particles down to the size limit of fracture. The maturation index can increment continuously, for example under grinding conditions, or as discrete steps, such as with impact events. In both cases our model gives the energy associated with the fragmentation in terms of the developing surface area of the population. We show the agreement of our model to the evolution of particle size distributions associated with episodic and continuous fragmentation and how the evolution of some popular fractals may be represented using this approach. C. A. Charalambous and W. T. Pike (2013). Multi-Scale Particle Size Distributions of Mars, Moon and Itokawa based on a time-maturation dependent fragmentation model. Abstract Submitted to the AGU 46th Fall Meeting. Bird, N. R. A., Watts, C. W., Tarquis, A. M., & Whitmore, A. P. (2009). Modeling dynamic fragmentation of soil. Vadose Zone Journal, 8(1), 197-201. Reid, K. J. (1965). A solution to the batch grinding equation. Chemical Engineering Science, 20(11), 953-963. Turcotte, D. L. (1986). Fractals and fragmentation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 91(B2), 1921-1926.

Reliability of Different Mark-Recapture Methods for Population Size Estimation Tested against Reference Population Sizes Constructed from Field Data

PubMed Central

Grimm, Annegret; Gruber, Bernd; Henle, Klaus

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of population size are fundamental in many ecological studies and biodiversity conservation. Selecting appropriate methods to estimate abundance is often very difficult, especially if data are scarce. Most studies concerning the reliability of different estimators used simulation data based on assumptions about capture variability that do not necessarily reflect conditions in natural populations. Here, we used data from an intensively studied closed population of the arboreal gecko Gehyra variegata to construct reference population sizes for assessing twelve different population size estimators in terms of bias, precision, accuracy, and their 95%-confidence intervals. Two of the reference populations reflect natural biological entities, whereas the other reference populations reflect artificial subsets of the population. Since individual heterogeneity was assumed, we tested modifications of the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, a set of models in programs MARK and CARE-2, and a truncated geometric distribution. Ranking of methods was similar across criteria. Models accounting for individual heterogeneity performed best in all assessment criteria. For populations from heterogeneous habitats without obvious covariates explaining individual heterogeneity, we recommend using the moment estimator or the interpolated jackknife estimator (both implemented in CAPTURE/MARK). If data for capture frequencies are substantial, we recommend the sample coverage or the estimating equation (both models implemented in CARE-2). Depending on the distribution of catchabilities, our proposed multiple Lincoln-Petersen and a truncated geometric distribution obtained comparably good results. The former usually resulted in a minimum population size and the latter can be recommended when there is a long tail of low capture probabilities. Models with covariates and mixture models performed poorly. Our approach identified suitable methods and extended options to evaluate the performance of mark-recapture population size estimators under field conditions, which is essential for selecting an appropriate method and obtaining reliable results in ecology and conservation biology, and thus for sound management. PMID:24896260

The empirical case against the ‘demographic turn’ in Palaeolithic archaeology

PubMed Central

Collard, Mark; Vaesen, Krist; Cosgrove, Richard; Roebroeks, Wil

2016-01-01

Recently, it has become commonplace to interpret major transitions and other patterns in the Palaeolithic archaeological record in terms of population size. Increases in cultural complexity are claimed to result from increases in population size; decreases in cultural complexity are suggested to be due to decreases in population size; and periods of no change are attributed to low numbers or frequent extirpation. In this paper, we argue that this approach is not defensible. We show that the available empirical evidence does not support the idea that cultural complexity in hunter–gatherers is governed by population size. Instead, ethnographic and archaeological data suggest that hunter–gatherer cultural complexity is most strongly influenced by environmental factors. Because all hominins were hunter–gatherers until the Holocene, this means using population size to interpret patterns in the Palaeolithic archaeological record is problematic. In future, the population size hypothesis should be viewed as one of several competing hypotheses and its predictions formally tested alongside those of its competitors. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Major transitions in human evolution’. PMID:27298472

The influence of persuasion in opinion formation and polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Rocca, C. E.; Braunstein, L. A.; Vazquez, F.

2014-05-01

We present a model that explores the influence of persuasion in a population of agents with positive and negative opinion orientations. The opinion of each agent is represented by an integer number k that expresses its level of agreement on a given issue, from totally against k=-M to totally in favor k = M. Same-orientation agents persuade each other with probability p, becoming more extreme, while opposite-orientation agents become more moderate as they reach a compromise with probability q. The population initially evolves to (a) a polarized state for r=p/q\\gt 1 , where opinions' distribution is peaked at the extreme values k=+/- M , or (b) a centralized state for r < 1, with most opinions around k=+/- 1 . When r \\gg 1 , polarization lasts for a time that diverges as r^M \\ln N , where N is the population's size. Finally, an extremist consensus (k = M or -M ) is reached in a time that scales as r^{-1} for r \\ll 1 .

Consumer co-evolution as an important component of the eco-evolutionary feedback.

PubMed

Hiltunen, Teppo; Becks, Lutz

2014-10-22

Rapid evolution in ecologically relevant traits has recently been recognized to significantly alter the interaction between consumers and their resources, a key interaction in all ecological communities. While these eco-evolutionary dynamics have been shown to occur when prey populations are evolving, little is known about the role of predator evolution and co-evolution between predator and prey in this context. Here, we investigate the role of consumer co-evolution for eco-evolutionary feedback in bacteria-ciliate microcosm experiments by manipulating the initial trait variation in the predator populations. With co-evolved predators, prey evolve anti-predatory defences faster, trait values are more variable, and predator and prey population sizes are larger at the end of the experiment compared with the non-co-evolved predators. Most importantly, differences in predator traits results in a shift from evolution driving ecology, to ecology driving evolution. Thus we demonstrate that predator co-evolution has important effects on eco-evolutionary dynamics.

The role of reduced oxygen in the developmental physiology of growth and metamorphosis initiation in Drosophila

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rearing oxygen level is known to affect final body size in a variety of insects, but the physiological mechanisms by which oxygen affects size are incompletely understood. In Manduca and Drosophila, the larval size at which metamorphosis is initiated largely determines adult size, and metamorphosis ...

Spread of an Inactive Form of Caspase-12 in Humans Is Due to Recent Positive Selection

PubMed Central

Xue, Yali ; Daly, Allan ; Yngvadottir, Bryndis ; Liu, Mengning ; Coop, Graham ; Kim, Yuseob ; Sabeti, Pardis ; Chen, Yuan ; Stalker, Jim ; Huckle, Elizabeth ; Burton, John ; Leonard, Steven ; Rogers, Jane ; Tyler-Smith, Chris 

2006-01-01

The human caspase-12 gene is polymorphic for the presence or absence of a stop codon, which results in the occurrence of both active (ancestral) and inactive (derived) forms of the gene in the population. It has been shown elsewhere that carriers of the inactive gene are more resistant to severe sepsis. We have now investigated whether the inactive form has spread because of neutral drift or positive selection. We determined its distribution in a worldwide sample of 52 populations and resequenced the gene in 77 individuals from the HapMap Yoruba, Han Chinese, and European populations. There is strong evidence of positive selection from low diversity, skewed allele-frequency spectra, and the predominance of a single haplotype. We suggest that the inactive form of the gene arose in Africa ∼100–500 thousand years ago (KYA) and was initially neutral or almost neutral but that positive selection beginning ∼60–100 KYA drove it to near fixation. We further propose that its selective advantage was sepsis resistance in populations that experienced more infectious diseases as population sizes and densities increased. PMID:16532395

Reexamining the minimum viable population concept for long-lived species.

PubMed

Shoemaker, Kevin T; Breisch, Alvin R; Jaycox, Jesse W; Gibbs, James P

2013-06-01

For decades conservation biologists have proposed general rules of thumb for minimum viable population size (MVP); typically, they range from hundreds to thousands of individuals. These rules have shifted conservation resources away from small and fragmented populations. We examined whether iteroparous, long-lived species might constitute an exception to general MVP guidelines. On the basis of results from a 10-year capture-recapture study in eastern New York (U.S.A.), we developed a comprehensive demographic model for the globally threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii), which is designated as endangered by the IUCN in 2011. We assessed population viability across a wide range of initial abundances and carrying capacities. Not accounting for inbreeding, our results suggest that bog turtle colonies with as few as 15 breeding females have >90% probability of persisting for >100 years, provided vital rates and environmental variance remain at currently estimated levels. On the basis of our results, we suggest that MVP thresholds may be 1-2 orders of magnitude too high for many long-lived organisms. Consequently, protection of small and fragmented populations may constitute a viable conservation option for such species, especially in a regional or metapopulation context. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Genetic conservation in applied tree breeding programs.

Treesearch

R. Johnson; B. St. Clair; S. Lipow

2001-01-01

This paper reviews how population size and structure impacts the maintenance of genetic variation in breeding and gene resource populations. We discuss appropriate population sizes for low frequency alleles and point out some examples of low frequency alleles in the literature. Development of appropriate breeding populations and gene resource populations are discussed...

Genetic health and population monitoring of two small black bear (Ursus americanus) populations in Alabama, with a regional perspective of genetic diversity and exchange

PubMed Central

Waits, Lisette P.; Adams, Jennifer R.; Seals, Christopher L.; Steury, Todd D.

2017-01-01

One of the major concerns in conservation today is the loss of genetic diversity which is a frequent consequence of population isolation and small population sizes. Fragmentation of populations and persecution of carnivores has posed a substantial threat to the persistence of free ranging carnivores in North America since the arrival of European settlers. Black bears have seen significant reductions in range size from their historic extent, which is most pronounced in the southeastern United States and even more starkly in Alabama where until recently bears were reduced to a single geographically isolated population in the Mobile River Basin. Recently a second population has naturally re-established itself in northeastern Alabama. We sought to determine size, genetic diversity and genetic connectivity for these two populations in relation to other regional populations. Both populations of black bears in Alabama had small population sizes and had moderate to low genetic diversity, but showed different levels of connectivity to surrounding populations of bears. The Mobile River Basin population had a small population size at only 86 individuals (76–124, 95% C.I.), the lowest genetic diversity of compared populations (richness = 2.33, Ho and He = 0.33), and showed near complete genetic isolation from surrounding populations across multiple tests. The newly recolonizing population in northeastern Alabama had a small but growing population doubling in 3 years (34 individuals 26–43, 95% C.I.), relatively moderate genetic diversity compared to surrounding populations (richness = 3.32, Ho = 0.53, He = 0.65), and showed a high level of genetic connectivity with surrounding populations. PMID:29117263

Large grain instruction and phonological awareness skill influence rime sensitivity, processing speed, and early decoding skill in adult L2 learners

PubMed Central

Brennan, Christine; Booth, James R.

2016-01-01

Linguistic knowledge, cognitive ability, and instruction influence how adults acquire a second orthography yet it remains unclear how different forms of instruction influence grain size sensitivity and subsequent decoding skill and speed. Thirty-seven monolingual, literate English-speaking adults were trained on a novel artificial orthography given initial instruction that directed attention to either large or small grain size units (i.e., words or letters). We examined how initial instruction influenced processing speed (i.e., reaction time (RT)) and sensitivity to different orthographic grain sizes (i.e., rimes and letters). Directing attention to large grain size units during initial instruction resulted in higher accuracy for rimes, whereas directing attention to smaller grain size units resulted in slower RTs across all measures. Additionally, phonological awareness skill modulated early learning effects, compensating for the limitations of the initial instruction provided. Collectively, these findings suggest that when adults are learning to read a second orthography, consideration should be given to how initial instruction directs attention to different grain sizes and inherent phonological awareness ability. PMID:27829705

Development of genetic diversity, differentiation and structure over 500 years in four ponderosa pine populations.

PubMed

Lesser, M R; Parchman, T L; Jackson, S T

2013-05-01

Population history plays an important role in shaping contemporary levels of genetic variation and geographic structure. This is especially true in small, isolated range-margin populations, where effects of inbreeding, genetic drift and gene flow may be more pronounced than in large continuous populations. Effects of landscape fragmentation and isolation distance may have implications for persistence of range-margin populations if they are demographic sinks. We studied four small, disjunct populations of ponderosa pine over a 500-year period. We coupled demographic data obtained through dendroecological methods with microsatellite data to discern how and when contemporary levels of allelic diversity, among and within-population levels of differentiation, and geographic structure, arose. Alleles accumulated rapidly following initial colonization, demonstrating proportionally high levels of gene flow into the populations. At population sizes of approximately 100 individuals, allele accumulation saturated. Levels of genetic differentiation among populations (F(ST) and Jost's D(est)) and diversity within populations (F(IS)) remained stable through time. There was no evidence of geographic genetic structure at any time in the populations' history. Proportionally, high gene flow in the early stages of population growth resulted in rapid accumulation of alleles and quickly created relatively homogenous genetic patterns among populations. Our study demonstrates that contemporary levels of genetic diversity were formed quickly and early in population development. How contemporary genetic diversity accumulates over time is a key facet of understanding population growth and development. This is especially relevant given the extent and speed at which species ranges are predicted to shift in the coming century. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The role of sexual selection and conflict in mediating among-population variation in mating strategies and sexually dimorphic traits in Sepsis punctum.

PubMed

Dmitriew, Caitlin; Blanckenhorn, Wolf U

2012-01-01

The black scavenger fly Sepsis punctum exhibits striking among-population variation in the direction and magnitude of sexual size dimorphism, modification to the male forelimb and pre-copulatory behaviour. In some populations, male-biased sexual size dimorphism is observed; in other, less dimorphic, populations males court prior to mating. Such variation in reproductive traits is of interest to evolutionary biologists because it has the potential to limit gene flow among populations, contributing to speciation. Here, we investigate whether large male body size and modified forefemur are associated with higher male mating success within populations, whether these traits are associated with higher mating success among populations, and if these traits carry viability costs that could constrain their response to sexual selection. Flies from five distinct populations were reared at high or low food, generating high and low quality males. The expression of body size, forelimb morphology and courtship rate were each greater at high food, but high food males experienced higher mating success or reduced latency to first copulation in only one of the populations. Among populations, overall mating success increased with the degree of male-bias in overall body size and forelimb modification, suggesting that these traits have evolved as a means of increasing male mating rate. The increased mating success observed in large-male populations raises the question of why variation in magnitude of dimorphism persists among populations. One reason may be that costs of producing a large size constrain the evolution of ever-larger males. We found no evidence that juvenile mortality under food stress was greater for large-male populations, but development time was considerably longer and may represent an important constraint in an ephemeral and competitive growth environment.

Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: There goes the neighborhood

Treesearch

M. C. Neel; K. McKelvey; N. Ryman; M. W. Lloyd; R. Short Bull; F. W. Allendorf; M. K. Schwartz; R. S. Waples

2013-01-01

Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (Ne) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating...

Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koons, David N.; Holmes, Randall R.; Grand, James B.

2007-01-01

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Body size and allometric shape variation in the molly Poecilia vivipara along a gradient of salinity and predation.

PubMed

Araújo, Márcio S; Perez, S Ivan; Magazoni, Maria Julia C; Petry, Ana C

2014-12-04

Phenotypic diversity among populations may result from divergent natural selection acting directly on traits or via correlated responses to changes in other traits. One of the most frequent patterns of correlated response is the proportional change in the dimensions of anatomical traits associated with changes in growth or absolute size, known as allometry. Livebearing fishes subject to predation gradients have been shown to repeatedly evolve larger caudal peduncles and smaller cranial regions under high predation regimes. Poecilia vivipara is a livebearing fish commonly found in coastal lagoons in the north of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Similar to what is observed in other predation gradients, lagoons inhabited by P. vivipara vary in the presence of piscivorous fishes; contrary to other poeciliid systems, populations of P. vivipara vary greatly in body size, which opens the possibility of strong allometric effects on shape variation. Here we investigated body shape diversification among six populations of P. vivipara along a predation gradient and its relationship with allometric trajectories within and among populations. We found substantial body size variation and correlated shape changes among populations. Multivariate regression analysis showed that size variation among populations accounted for 66% of shape variation in females and 38% in males, suggesting that size is the most important dimension underlying shape variation among populations of P. vivipara in this system. Changes in the relative sizes of the caudal peduncle and cranial regions were only partly in line with predictions from divergent natural selection associated with predation regime. Our results suggest the possibility that adaptive shape variation among populations has been partly constrained by allometry in P. vivipara. Processes governing body size changes are therefore important in the diversification of this species. We conclude that in species characterized by substantial among-population differences in body size, ignoring allometric effects when investigating divergent natural selection's role in phenotypic diversification might not be warranted.

Diel Variation in Population Size and Ice Nucleation Activity of Pseudomonas syringae on Snap Bean Leaflets.

PubMed

Hirano, S S; Upper, C D

1989-03-01

The extent to which diel changes in the physical environment affect changes in population size and ice nucleation activity of Pseudomonas syringae on snap bean leaflets was determined under field conditions. To estimate bacterial population size and ice nucleation activity, bean leaflets were harvested at 2-h intervals during each of three 26-h periods. A tube nucleation test was used to assay individual leaflets for ice nuclei. Population sizes of P. syringae were determined by dilution plating of leaflet homogenates. The overall diel changes in P. syringae population sizes differed during each of the 26-h periods. In one 26-h period, there was a continuous increase in the logarithm of P. syringae population size despite intense solar radiation, absence of free moisture on leaf surfaces, and low relative humidity during the day. A mean doubling time of approximately 4.9 h was estimated for the 28-fold increase in P. syringae population size that occurred from 0900 to 0900 h during the 26-h period. However, doubling times of 3.3 and 1.9 h occurred briefly during this period from 1700 to 2300 h and from 0100 to 0700 h, respectively. Thus, growth rates of P. syringae in association with leaves in the field were of the same order of magnitude as optimal rates measured in the laboratory. The frequency with which leaflets bore ice nuclei active at -2.0, -2.2, and -2.5 degrees C varied greatly within each 26-h period. These large diel changes were inversely correlated primarily with the diel changes in air temperature and reflected changes in nucleation frequency rather than changes in population size of P. syringae. Thus, the response of bacterial ice nucleation activity to the physical environment was distinct from the changes in population size of ice nucleation-active P. syringae.

Constraining particle size-dependent plume sedimentation from the 17 June 1996 eruption of Ruapehu Volcano, New Zealand, using geophysical inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klawonn, M.; Frazer, L. N.; Wolfe, C. J.; Houghton, B. F.; Rosenberg, M. D.

2014-03-01

Weak subplinian-plinian plumes pose frequent hazards to populations and aviation, yet many key parameters of these particle-laden plumes are, to date, poorly constrained. This study recovers the particle size-dependent mass distribution along the trajectory of a well-constrained weak plume by inverting the dispersion process of tephra fallout. We use the example of the 17 June 1996 Ruapehu eruption in New Zealand and base our computations on mass per unit area tephra measurements and grain size distributions at 118 sample locations. Comparisons of particle fall times and time of sampling collection, as well as observations during the eruption, reveal that particles smaller than 250 μm likely settled as aggregates. For simplicity we assume that all of these fine particles fell as aggregates of constant size and density, whereas we assume that large particles fell as individual particles at their terminal velocity. Mass fallout along the plume trajectory follows distinct trends between larger particles (d≥250 μm) and the fine population (d<250 μm) that are likely due to the two different settling behaviors (aggregate settling versus single-particle settling). In addition, we computed the resulting particle size distribution within the weak plume along its axis and find that the particle mode shifts from an initial 1φ mode to a 2.5φ mode 10 km from the vent and is dominated by a 2.5 to 3φ mode 10-180 km from vent, where the plume reaches the coastline and we do not have further field constraints. The computed particle distributions inside the plume provide new constraints on the mass transport processes within weak plumes and improve previous models. The distinct decay trends between single-particle settling and aggregate settling may serve as a new tool to identify particle sizes that fell as aggregates for other eruptions.

Does Water Hyacinth on East African Lakes Promote Cholera Outbreaks?

PubMed Central

Feikin, Daniel R.; Tabu, Collins W.; Gichuki, John

2010-01-01

Cholera outbreaks continue to occur regularly in Africa. Cholera has been associated with proximity to lakes in East Africa, and Vibrio cholerae has been found experimentally to concentrate on the floating aquatic plant, water hyacinth, which is periodically widespread in East African lakes since the late 1980s. From 1994 to 2008, Nyanza Province, which is the Kenyan province bordering Lake Victoria, accounted for a larger proportion of cholera cases than expected by its population size (38.7% of cholera cases versus 15.3% of national population). Yearly water-hyacinth coverage on the Kenyan section of Lake Victoria was positively associated with the number of cholera cases reported in Nyanza Province (r = 0.83; P = 0.0010). Water hyacinth on freshwater lakes might play a role in initiating cholera outbreaks and causing sporadic disease in East Africa. PMID:20682884

Peculiar Euphrosyne

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carruba, V.; Aljbaae, S.; Souami, D.

2014-07-01

(31) Euphrosyne is the largest body of its namesake family, and contains more the 99.35% of the family mass. Among asteroid families, the Euphosyne group is peculiar because of its quite steep size frequency distribution, significantly depleted in large and medium- sized asteroids (8 < D < 12~km). The current steep size frequency distribution of the Euphrosyne family has been suggested to be the result of a grazing impact in which only the farthest, smallest members failed to accrete. The Euphrosyne family is however also very peculiar because of its dynamics: near its center it is crossed by the ν_6 = g -g_6 linear secular resonance, and it hosts the largest population (140 bodies) of asteroids in ν_6 anti-aligned librating states (or Tina-like asteroids) in the main belt. In this work we investigated the orbital evolution of newly obtained members of the dynamical family, with an emphasis on its interaction with the ν_6 resonance. Because of its unique resonant configuration, large and medium sized asteroids tend to migrate away from the family orbital region faster than small-sized objects, that were ejected further away from the family center. As a consequence, the size-frequency distribution of the Euphrosyne family becomes steeper in time, with a growing depletion in the number of the largest family members. We estimate that the current size-frequency distribution could be attained from a typical, initial size-frequency distribution in time-scales of the order of 1~Byr, consistently with estimates of the family age obtained with other, independent, methods.

Slow-fast stochastic diffusion dynamics and quasi-stationarity for diploid populations with varying size.

PubMed

Coron, Camille

2016-01-01

We are interested in the long-time behavior of a diploid population with sexual reproduction and randomly varying population size, characterized by its genotype composition at one bi-allelic locus. The population is modeled by a 3-dimensional birth-and-death process with competition, weak cooperation and Mendelian reproduction. This stochastic process is indexed by a scaling parameter K that goes to infinity, following a large population assumption. When the individual birth and natural death rates are of order K, the sequence of stochastic processes indexed by K converges toward a new slow-fast dynamics with variable population size. We indeed prove the convergence toward 0 of a fast variable giving the deviation of the population from quasi Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, while the sequence of slow variables giving the respective numbers of occurrences of each allele converges toward a 2-dimensional diffusion process that reaches (0,0) almost surely in finite time. The population size and the proportion of a given allele converge toward a Wright-Fisher diffusion with stochastically varying population size and diploid selection. We insist on differences between haploid and diploid populations due to population size stochastic variability. Using a non trivial change of variables, we study the absorption of this diffusion and its long time behavior conditioned on non-extinction. In particular we prove that this diffusion starting from any non-trivial state and conditioned on not hitting (0,0) admits a unique quasi-stationary distribution. We give numerical approximations of this quasi-stationary behavior in three biologically relevant cases: neutrality, overdominance, and separate niches.

Genetic Gain and Inbreeding from Genomic Selection in a Simulated Commercial Breeding Program for Perennial Ryegrass.

PubMed

Lin, Zibei; Cogan, Noel O I; Pembleton, Luke W; Spangenberg, German C; Forster, John W; Hayes, Ben J; Daetwyler, Hans D

2016-03-01

Genomic selection (GS) provides an attractive option for accelerating genetic gain in perennial ryegrass () improvement given the long cycle times of most current breeding programs. The present study used simulation to investigate the level of genetic gain and inbreeding obtained from GS breeding strategies compared with traditional breeding strategies for key traits (persistency, yield, and flowering time). Base population genomes were simulated through random mating for 60,000 generations at an effective population size of 10,000. The degree of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in the resulting population was compared with that obtained from empirical studies. Initial parental varieties were simulated to match diversity of current commercial cultivars. Genomic selection was designed to fit into a company breeding program at two selection points in the breeding cycle (spaced plants and miniplot). Genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for productivity traits were trained with phenotypes and genotypes from plots. Accuracy of GEBVs was 0.24 for persistency and 0.36 for yield for single plants, while for plots it was lower (0.17 and 0.19, respectively). Higher accuracy of GEBVs was obtained for flowering time (up to 0.7), partially as a result of the larger reference population size that was available from the clonal row stage. The availability of GEBVs permit a 4-yr reduction in cycle time, which led to at least a doubling and trebling genetic gain for persistency and yield, respectively, than the traditional program. However, a higher rate of inbreeding per cycle among varieties was also observed for the GS strategy. Copyright © 2016 Crop Science Society of America.

GalMod: A Galactic Synthesis Population Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasetto, Stefano; Grebel, Eva K.; Chiosi, Cesare; Crnojević, Denija; Zeidler, Peter; Busso, Giorgia; Cassarà, Letizia P.; Piovan, Lorenzo; Tantalo, Rosaria; Brogliato, Claudio

2018-06-01

We present a new Galaxy population synthesis Model, GalMod. GalMod is a star-count model featuring an asymmetric bar/bulge as well as spiral arms and related extinction. The model, initially introduced in Pasetto et al., has been here completed with a central bar, a new bulge description, new disk vertical profiles, and several new bolometric corrections. The model can generate synthetic mock catalogs of visible portions of the Milky Way, external galaxies like M31, or N-body simulation initial conditions. At any given time, e.g., at a chosen age of the Galaxy, the model contains a sum of discrete stellar populations, namely the bulge/bar, disk, and halo. These populations are in turn the sum of different components: the disk is the sum of the spiral arms, thin disks, a thick disk, and various gas components, while the halo is the sum of a stellar component, a hot coronal gas, and a dark-matter component. The Galactic potential is computed from these population density profiles and used to generate detailed kinematics by considering up to the first four moments of the collisionless Boltzmann equation. The same density profiles are then used to define the observed color–magnitude diagrams in a user-defined field of view (FoV) from an arbitrary solar location. Several photometric systems have been included and made available online, and no limits on the size of the FoV are imposed thus allowing full-sky simulations, too. Finally, we model the extinction by adopting a dust model with advanced ray-tracing solutions. The model's Web page (and tutorial) can be accessed at www.GalMod.org and support is provided at Galaxy.Model@yahoo.com.

Improving size estimates of open animal populations by incorporating information on age

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manly, Bryan F.J.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

2003-01-01

Around the world, a great deal of effort is expended each year to estimate the sizes of wild animal populations. Unfortunately, population size has proven to be one of the most intractable parameters to estimate. The capture-recapture estimation models most commonly used (of the Jolly-Seber type) are complicated and require numerous, sometimes questionable, assumptions. The derived estimates usually have large variances and lack consistency over time. In capture–recapture studies of long-lived animals, the ages of captured animals can often be determined with great accuracy and relative ease. We show how to incorporate age information into size estimates for open populations, where the size changes through births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The proposed method allows more precise estimates of population size than the usual models, and it can provide these estimates from two sample occasions rather than the three usually required. Moreover, this method does not require specialized programs for capture-recapture data; researchers can derive their estimates using the logistic regression module in any standard statistical package.

Patterns of ancestry and genetic diversity in reintroduced populations of the slimy sculpin: Implications for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huff, David D.; Miller, Loren M.; Vondracek, Bruce C.

2010-01-01

Reintroductions are a common approach for preserving intraspecific biodiversity in fragmented landscapes. However, they may exacerbate the reduction in genetic diversity initially caused by population fragmentation because the effective population size of reintroduced populations is often smaller and reintroduced populations also tend to be more geographically isolated than native populations. Mixing genetically divergent sources for reintroduction purposes is a practice intended to increase genetic diversity. We documented the outcome of reintroductions from three mixed sources on the ancestral composition and genetic variation of a North American fish, the slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus). We used microsatellite markers to evaluate allelic richness and heterozygosity in the reintroduced populations relative to computer simulated expectations. Sculpins in reintroduced populations exhibited higher levels of heterozygosity and allelic richness than any single source, but only slightly higher than the single most genetically diverse source population. Simulations intended to mimic an ideal scenario for maximizing genetic variation in the reintroduced populations also predicted increases, but they were only moderately greater than the most variable source population. We found that a single source contributed more than the other two sources at most reintroduction sites. We urge caution when choosing whether to mix source populations in reintroduction programs. Genetic characteristics of candidate source populations should be evaluated prior to reintroduction if feasible. When combined with knowledge of the degree of genetic distinction among sources, simulations may allow the genetic diversity benefits of mixing populations to be weighed against the risks of outbreeding depression in reintroduced and nearby populations.

Patterns of ancestry and genetic diversity in reintroduced populations of the slimy sculpin: Implications for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huff, D.D.; Miller, L.M.; Vondracek, B.

2010-01-01

Reintroductions are a common approach for preserving intraspecific biodiversity in fragmented landscapes. However, they may exacerbate the reduction in genetic diversity initially caused by population fragmentation because the effective population size of reintroduced populations is often smaller and reintroduced populations also tend to be more geographically isolated than native populations. Mixing genetically divergent sources for reintroduction purposes is a practice intended to increase genetic diversity. We documented the outcome of reintroductions from three mixed sources on the ancestral composition and genetic variation of a North American fish, the slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus). We used microsatellite markers to evaluate allelic richness and heterozygosity in the reintroduced populations relative to computer simulated expectations. Sculpins in reintroduced populations exhibited higher levels of heterozygosity and allelic richness than any single source, but only slightly higher than the single most genetically diverse source population. Simulations intended to mimic an ideal scenario for maximizing genetic variation in the reintroduced populations also predicted increases, but they were only moderately greater than the most variable source population. We found that a single source contributed more than the other two sources at most reintroduction sites. We urge caution when choosing whether to mix source populations in reintroduction programs. Genetic characteristics of candidate source populations should be evaluated prior to reintroduction if feasible. When combined with knowledge of the degree of genetic distinction among sources, simulations may allow the genetic diversity benefits of mixing populations to be weighed against the risks of outbreeding depression in reintroduced and nearby populations. ?? 2010 US Government.

Integrating Breeding Bird Survey and demographic data to estimate Wood Duck population size in the Atlantic Flyway

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John; Boomer, G. Scott; Devers, Patrick K.; Garrettson, Pamela R.

2017-01-01

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) uses data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to assist in monitoring and management of some migratory birds. However, BBS analyses provide indices of population change rather than estimates of population size, precluding their use in developing abundance-based objectives and limiting applicability to harvest management. Wood Ducks (Aix sponsa) are important harvested birds in the Atlantic Flyway (AF) that are difficult to detect during aerial surveys because they prefer forested habitat. We integrated Wood Duck count data from a ground-plot survey in the northeastern U.S. with AF-wide BBS, banding, parts collection, and harvest data to derive estimates of population size for the AF. Overlapping results between the smaller-scale intensive ground-plot survey and the BBS in the northeastern U.S. provided a means for scaling BBS indices to the breeding population size estimates. We applied these scaling factors to BBS results for portions of the AF lacking intensive surveys. Banding data provided estimates of annual survival and harvest rates; the latter, when combined with parts-collection data, provided estimates of recruitment. We used the harvest data to estimate fall population size. Our estimates of breeding population size and variability from the integrated population model (N̄ = 0.99 million, SD = 0.04) were similar to estimates of breeding population size based solely on data from the AF ground-plot surveys and the BBS (N̄ = 1.01 million, SD = 0.04) from 1998 to 2015. Integrating BBS data with other data provided reliable population size estimates for Wood Ducks at a scale useful for harvest and habitat management in the AF, and allowed us to derive estimates of important demographic parameters (e.g., seasonal survival rates, sex ratio) that were not directly informed by data.

Long-term effective population size dynamics of an intensively monitored vertebrate population

PubMed Central

Mueller, A-K; Chakarov, N; Krüger, O; Hoffman, J I

2016-01-01

Long-term genetic data from intensively monitored natural populations are important for understanding how effective population sizes (Ne) can vary over time. We therefore genotyped 1622 common buzzard (Buteo buteo) chicks sampled over 12 consecutive years (2002–2013 inclusive) at 15 microsatellite loci. This data set allowed us to both compare single-sample with temporal approaches and explore temporal patterns in the effective number of parents that produced each cohort in relation to the observed population dynamics. We found reasonable consistency between linkage disequilibrium-based single-sample and temporal estimators, particularly during the latter half of the study, but no clear relationship between annual Ne estimates () and census sizes. We also documented a 14-fold increase in between 2008 and 2011, a period during which the census size doubled, probably reflecting a combination of higher adult survival and immigration from further afield. Our study thus reveals appreciable temporal heterogeneity in the effective population size of a natural vertebrate population, confirms the need for long-term studies and cautions against drawing conclusions from a single sample. PMID:27553455

Estimating the size of an open population using sparse capture-recapture data.

PubMed

Huggins, Richard; Stoklosa, Jakub; Roach, Cameron; Yip, Paul

2018-03-01

Sparse capture-recapture data from open populations are difficult to analyze using currently available frequentist statistical methods. However, in closed capture-recapture experiments, the Chao sparse estimator (Chao, 1989, Biometrics 45, 427-438) may be used to estimate population sizes when there are few recaptures. Here, we extend the Chao (1989) closed population size estimator to the open population setting by using linear regression and extrapolation techniques. We conduct a small simulation study and apply the models to several sparse capture-recapture data sets. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods

PubMed Central

Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

2014-01-01

HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture–recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture–recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998–3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916–2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture–recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture–recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. PMID:25336306

Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

PubMed

Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

2015-10-01

HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. © The Author(s) 2015.

Skipping Strategy (SS) for Initial Population of Job-Shop Scheduling Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdolrazzagh-Nezhad, M.; Nababan, E. B.; Sarim, H. M.

2018-03-01

Initial population in job-shop scheduling problem (JSSP) is an essential step to obtain near optimal solution. Techniques used to solve JSSP are computationally demanding. Skipping strategy (SS) is employed to acquire initial population after sequence of job on machine and sequence of operations (expressed in Plates-jobs and mPlates-jobs) are determined. The proposed technique is applied to benchmark datasets and the results are compared to that of other initialization techniques. It is shown that the initial population obtained from the SS approach could generate optimal solution.

Extinction hazards in experimental Daphnia magna populations: effects of genotype diversity and environmental variation

PubMed Central

Robinson, John D; Wares, John P; Drake, John M

2013-01-01

Extinction is ubiquitous in natural systems and the ultimate fate of all biological populations. However, the factors that contribute to population extinction are still poorly understood, particularly genetic diversity and composition. A laboratory experiment was conducted to examine the influences of environmental variation and genotype diversity on persistence in experimental Daphnia magna populations. Populations were initiated in two blocks with one, two, three, or six randomly selected and equally represented genotypes, fed and checked for extinction daily, and censused twice weekly over a period of 170 days. Our results show no evidence for an effect of the number of genotypes in a population on extinction hazard. Environmental variation had a strong effect on hazards in both experimental blocks, but the direction of the effect differed between blocks. In the first block, variable environments hastened extinction, while in the second block, hazards were reduced under variable food input. This occurred despite greater fluctuations in population size in variable environments in the second block of our experiment. Our results conflict with previous studies, where environmental variation consistently increased extinction risk. They are also at odds with previous studies in other systems that documented significant effects of genetic diversity on population persistence. We speculate that the lack of sexual reproduction, or the phenotypic similarity among our experimental lines, might underlie the lack of a significant effect of genotype diversity in our study. PMID:23467276

The fabrication of novel nanobubble ultrasound contrast agent for potential tumor imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Zhanwen; Wang, Jinrui; Ke, Hengte; Zhao, Bo; Yue, Xiuli; Dai, Zhifei; Liu, Jibin

2010-04-01

Novel biocompatible nanobubbles were fabricated by ultrasonication of a mixture of Span 60 and polyoxyethylene 40 stearate (PEG40S) followed by differential centrifugation to isolate the relevant subpopulation from the parent suspensions. Particle sizing analysis and optical microscopy inspection indicated that the freshly generated micro/nanobubble suspension was polydisperse and the size distribution was bimodal with large amounts of nanobubbles. To develop a nano-sized contrast agent that is small enough to leak through tumor pores, a fractionation to extract smaller bubbles by variation in the time of centrifugation at 20g (relative centrifuge field, RCF) was suggested. The results showed that the population of nanobubbles with a precisely controlled mean diameter could be sorted from the initial polydisperse suspensions to meet the specified requirements. The isolated bubbles were stable over two weeks under the protection of perfluoropropane gas. The acoustic behavior of the nano-sized contrast agent was evaluated using power Doppler imaging in a normal rabbit model. An excellent power Doppler enhancement was found in vivo renal imaging after intravenous injection of the obtained nanobubbles. Given the broad spectrum of potential clinical applications, the nano-sized contrast agent may provide a versatile adjunct for ultrasonic imaging enhancement and/or treatment of tumors.

Sex ratio rather than population size affects genetic diversity in Antennaria dioica.

PubMed

Rosche, C; Schrieber, K; Lachmuth, S; Durka, W; Hirsch, H; Wagner, V; Schleuning, M; Hensen, I

2018-03-09

Habitat fragmentation and small population size can lead to genetic erosion in threatened plant populations. Classical theory implies that dioecy can counteract genetic erosion as it decreases the magnitude of inbreeding and genetic drift due to obligate outcrossing. However, in small populations, sex ratios may be strongly male- or female-biased, leading to substantial reductions in effective population size. This may theoretically result in a unimodal relationship between sex ratios and genetic diversity; yet, empirical studies on this relationship are scarce. Using AFLP markers, we studied genetic diversity, structure and differentiation in 14 highly fragmented Antennaria dioica populations from the Central European lowlands. Our analyses focused on the relationship between sex ratio, population size and genetic diversity. Although most populations were small (mean: 35.5 patches), genetic diversity was moderately high. We found evidence for isolation-by-distance, but overall differentiation of the populations was rather weak. Females dominated 11 populations, which overall resulted in a slightly female-biased sex ratio (61.5%). There was no significant relationship between population size and genetic diversity. The proportion of females was not unimodally but positively linearly related to genetic diversity. The high genetic diversity and low genetic differentiation suggest that A. dioica has been widely distributed in the Central European lowlands in the past, while fragmentation occurred only in the last decades. Sex ratio has more immediate consequences on genetic diversity than population size. An increasing proportion of females can increase genetic diversity in dioecious plants, probably due to a higher amount of sexual reproduction. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Mutation Bias Favors Protein Folding Stability in the Evolution of Small Populations

PubMed Central

Porto, Markus; Bastolla, Ugo

2010-01-01

Mutation bias in prokaryotes varies from extreme adenine and thymine (AT) in obligatory endosymbiotic or parasitic bacteria to extreme guanine and cytosine (GC), for instance in actinobacteria. GC mutation bias deeply influences the folding stability of proteins, making proteins on the average less hydrophobic and therefore less stable with respect to unfolding but also less susceptible to misfolding and aggregation. We study a model where proteins evolve subject to selection for folding stability under given mutation bias, population size, and neutrality. We find a non-neutral regime where, for any given population size, there is an optimal mutation bias that maximizes fitness. Interestingly, this optimal GC usage is small for small populations, large for intermediate populations and around 50% for large populations. This result is robust with respect to the definition of the fitness function and to the protein structures studied. Our model suggests that small populations evolving with small GC usage eventually accumulate a significant selective advantage over populations evolving without this bias. This provides a possible explanation to the observation that most species adopting obligatory intracellular lifestyles with a consequent reduction of effective population size shifted their mutation spectrum towards AT. The model also predicts that large GC usage is optimal for intermediate population size. To test these predictions we estimated the effective population sizes of bacterial species using the optimal codon usage coefficients computed by dos Reis et al. and the synonymous to non-synonymous substitution ratio computed by Daubin and Moran. We found that the population sizes estimated in these ways are significantly smaller for species with small and large GC usage compared to species with no bias, which supports our prediction. PMID:20463869

Population-level interventions in government jurisdictions for dietary sodium reduction.

PubMed

McLaren, Lindsay; Sumar, Nureen; Barberio, Amanda M; Trieu, Kathy; Lorenzetti, Diane L; Tarasuk, Valerie; Webster, Jacqui; Campbell, Norman Rc

2016-09-16

Excess dietary sodium consumption is a risk factor for high blood pressure, stroke and cardiovascular disease. Currently, dietary sodium consumption in almost every country is too high. Excess sodium intake is associated with high blood pressure, which is common and costly and accounts for significant burden of disease. A large number of jurisdictions worldwide have implemented population-level dietary sodium reduction initiatives. No systematic review has examined the impact of these initiatives. • To assess the impact of population-level interventions for dietary sodium reduction in government jurisdictions worldwide.• To assess the differential impact of those initiatives by social and economic indicators. We searched the following electronic databases from their start date to 5 January 2015: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); Cochrane Public Health Group Specialised Register; MEDLINE; MEDLINE In Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations; EMBASE; Effective Public Health Practice Project Database; Web of Science; Trials Register of Promoting Health Interventions (TRoPHI) databases; and Latin American Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS). We also searched grey literature, other national sources and references of included studies.This review was conducted in parallel with a comprehensive review of national sodium reduction efforts under way worldwide (Trieu 2015), through which we gained additional information directly from country contacts.We imposed no restrictions on language or publication status. We included population-level initiatives (i.e. interventions that target whole populations, in this case, government jurisdictions, worldwide) for dietary sodium reduction, with at least one pre-intervention data point and at least one post-intervention data point of comparable jurisdiction. We included populations of all ages and the following types of study designs: cluster-randomised, controlled pre-post, interrupted time series and uncontrolled pre-post. We contacted study authors at different points in the review to ask for missing information. Two review authors extracted data, and two review authors assessed risk of bias for each included initiative.We analysed the impact of initiatives by using estimates of sodium consumption from dietary surveys or urine samples. All estimates were converted to a common metric: salt intake in grams per day. We analysed impact by computing the mean change in salt intake (grams per day) from pre-intervention to post-intervention. We reviewed a total of 881 full-text documents. From these, we identified 15 national initiatives, including more than 260,000 people, that met the inclusion criteria. None of the initiatives were provided in lower-middle-income or low-income countries. All initiatives except one used an uncontrolled pre-post study design.Because of high levels of study heterogeneity (I 2 > 90%), we focused on individual initiatives rather than on pooled results.Ten initiatives provided sufficient data for quantitative analysis of impact (64,798 participants). As required by the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) method, we graded the evidence as very low due to the risk of bias of the included studies, as well as variation in the direction and size of effect across the studies. Five of these showed mean decreases in average daily salt intake per person from pre-intervention to post-intervention, ranging from 1.15 grams/day less (Finland) to 0.35 grams/day less (Ireland). Two initiatives showed mean increase in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention: Canada (1.66) and Switzerland (0.80 grams/day more per person. The remaining initiatives did not show a statistically significant mean change.Seven of the 10 initiatives were multi-component and incorporated intervention activities of a structural nature (e.g. food product reformulation, food procurement policy in specific settings). Of those seven initiatives, four showed a statistically significant mean decrease in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention, ranging from Finland to Ireland (see above), and one showed a statistically significant mean increase in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention (Switzerland; see above).Nine initiatives permitted quantitative analysis of differential impact by sex (men and women separately). For women, three initiatives (China, Finland, France) showed a statistically significant mean decrease, four (Austria, Netherlands, Switzerland, United Kingdom) showed no significant change and two (Canada, United States) showed a statistically significant mean increase in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention. For men, five initiatives (Austria, China, Finland, France, United Kingdom) showed a statistically significant mean decrease, three (Netherlands, Switzerland, United States) showed no significant change and one (Canada) showed a statistically significant mean increase in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention.Information was insufficient to indicate whether a differential change in mean salt intake occurred from pre-intervention to post-intervention by other axes of equity included in the PROGRESS framework (e.g. education, place of residence).We identified no adverse effects of these initiatives.The number of initiatives was insufficient to permit other subgroup analyses, including stratification by intervention type, economic status of country and duration (or start year) of the initiative.Many studies had methodological strengths, including large, nationally representative samples of the population and rigorous measurement of dietary sodium intake. However, all studies were scored as having high risk of bias, reflecting the observational nature of the research and the use of an uncontrolled study design. The quality of evidence for the main outcome was low. We could perform a sensitivity analysis only for impact. Population-level interventions in government jurisdictions for dietary sodium reduction have the potential to result in population-wide reductions in salt intake from pre-intervention to post-intervention, particularly if they are multi-component (more than one intervention activity) and incorporate intervention activities of a structural nature (e.g. food product reformulation), and particularly amongst men. Heterogeneity across studies was significant, reflecting different contexts (population and setting) and initiative characteristics. Implementation of future initiatives should embed more effective means of evaluation to help us better understand the variation in the effects.

Characteristics of terrestrial basaltic rock populations: Implications for Mars lander and rover science and safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craddock, Robert A.; Golombek, Matthew P.

2016-08-01

We analyzed the morphometry of basaltic rock populations that have been emplaced or affected by a variety of geologic processes, including explosive volcanic eruptions (as a proxy for impact cratering), catastrophic flooding, frost shattering, salt weathering, alluvial deposition, and chemical weathering. Morphometric indices for these rock populations were compared to an unmodified population of rocks that had broken off a solidified lava flow to understand how different geologic processes change rock shape. We found that a majority of rocks have an sphericity described as either a disc or sphere in the Zingg classification system and posit that this is a function of cooling fractures in the basalt (Zingg [1935] Schweiz. Miner. Petrogr. Mitt., 15, 39-140). Angularity (roundness) is the most diagnostic morphometric index, but the Corey Shape Factor (CSF), Oblate-Prolate Index (OPI) and deviation from compactness (D) also sometimes distinguished weathering processes. Comparison of our results to prior analyses of rock populations found at the Mars Pathfinder, Spirit, and Curiosity landing sites support previous conclusions. The observation that the size-frequency distribution of terrestrial rock populations follow exponential functions similar to lander and orbital measurements of rocks on Mars, which is expected from fracture and fragmentation theory, indicates that these distributions are being dominantly controlled by the initial fracture and fragmentation of the basalt.

Density-dependence as a size-independent regulatory mechanism.

PubMed

de Vladar, Harold P

2006-01-21

The growth function of populations is central in biomathematics. The main dogma is the existence of density-dependence mechanisms, which can be modelled with distinct functional forms that depend on the size of the population. One important class of regulatory functions is the theta-logistic, which generalizes the logistic equation. Using this model as a motivation, this paper introduces a simple dynamical reformulation that generalizes many growth functions. The reformulation consists of two equations, one for population size, and one for the growth rate. Furthermore, the model shows that although population is density-dependent, the dynamics of the growth rate does not depend either on population size, nor on the carrying capacity. Actually, the growth equation is uncoupled from the population size equation, and the model has only two parameters, a Malthusian parameter rho and a competition coefficient theta. Distinct sign combinations of these parameters reproduce not only the family of theta-logistics, but also the van Bertalanffy, Gompertz and Potential Growth equations, among other possibilities. It is also shown that, except for two critical points, there is a general size-scaling relation that includes those appearing in the most important allometric theories, including the recently proposed Metabolic Theory of Ecology. With this model, several issues of general interest are discussed such as the growth of animal population, extinctions, cell growth and allometry, and the effect of environment over a population.

Density effect on great tit (Parus major) clutch size intensifies in a polluted environment.

PubMed

Eeva, Tapio; Lehikoinen, Esa

2013-12-01

Long-term data on a great tit (Parus major) population breeding in a metal-polluted zone around a copper-nickel smelter indicate that, against expectations, the clutch size of this species is decreasing even though metal emissions in the area have decreased considerably over the past two decades. Here, we document long-term population-level changes in the clutch size of P. major and explore if changes in population density, population numbers of competing species, timing of breeding, breeding habitat, or female age distribution can explain decreasing clutch sizes. Clutch size of P. major decreased by one egg in the polluted zone during the past 21 years, while there was no significant change in clutch size in the unpolluted reference zone over this time period. Density of P. major nests was similar in both environments but increased threefold during the study period in both areas (from 0.8 to 2.4 nest/ha). In the polluted zone, clutch size has decreased as a response to a considerable increase in population density, while a corresponding density change in the unpolluted zone did not have such an effect. The other factors studied did not explain the clutch size trend. Fledgling numbers in the polluted environment have been relatively low since the beginning of the study period, and they do not show a corresponding decrease to that noted for the clutch size over the same time period. Our study shows that responses of commonly measured life-history parameters to anthropogenic pollution depend on the structure of the breeding population. Interactions between pollution and intrinsic population characters should therefore be taken into account in environmental studies.

Effective size of density-dependent two-sex populations: the effect of mating systems.

PubMed

Myhre, A M; Engen, S; SAEther, B-E

2017-08-01

Density dependence in vital rates is a key feature affecting temporal fluctuations of natural populations. This has important implications for the rate of random genetic drift. Mating systems also greatly affect effective population sizes, but knowledge of how mating system and density regulation interact to affect random genetic drift is poor. Using theoretical models and simulations, we compare N e in short-lived, density-dependent animal populations with different mating systems. We study the impact of a fluctuating, density-dependent sex ratio and consider both a stable and a fluctuating environment. We find a negative relationship between annual N e /N and adult population size N due to density dependence, suggesting that loss of genetic variation is reduced at small densities. The magnitude of this decrease was affected by mating system and life history. A male-biased, density-dependent sex ratio reduces the rate of genetic drift compared to an equal, density-independent sex ratio, but a stochastic change towards male bias reduces the N e /N ratio. Environmental stochasticity amplifies temporal fluctuations in population size and is thus vital to consider in estimation of effective population sizes over longer time periods. Our results on the reduced loss of genetic variation at small densities, particularly in polygamous populations, indicate that density regulation may facilitate adaptive evolution at small population sizes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Effects of high density on spacing behaviour and reproduction in Akodon azarae: A fencing experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ávila, Belén; Bonatto, Florencia; Priotto, José; Steinmann, Andrea R.

2016-01-01

We studied the short term spacing behavioural responses of Pampean grassland mouse (Akodon azarae) with regard to population density in four 0.25 ha enclosures (two control and two experimental) in the 2011 breeding season. Based on the hypothesis that A. azarae breeding females exhibit spacing behaviour, and breeding males show a fusion spatial response, we tested the following predictions: (1) home range size and intrasexual overlap degree of females are independent of population density values; (2) at high population density, home range size of males decreases and the intrasexual home range overlap degree increases. To determine if female reproductive success decreases at high population density, we analyzed pregnancy rate, size and weight of litters, and period until fecundation in both low and high enclosure population density. We found that both males and females varied their home range size in relation to population density. Although male home ranges were always bigger than those of females in populations with high density, home range sizes of both sexes decreased. Females kept exclusive home ranges independent of density values meanwhile males decreased home range overlap in high breeding density populations. Although females produced litters of similar size in both treatments, weight of litter, pregnant rate and period until fecundation varied in relation to population density. Our results did not support the hypothesis that at high density females of A. azarae exhibit spacing behaviour neither that males exhibit a fusion spatial response.

Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Gamelon, Marlène; Grøtan, Vidar; Nilsson, Anna L. K.; Engen, Steinar; Hurrell, James W.; Jerstad, Kurt; Phillips, Adam S.; Røstad, Ole W.; Slagsvold, Tore; Walseng, Bjørn; Stenseth, Nils C.; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-01-01

Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions. PMID:28164157

Effect size and cost-effectiveness estimates of breast and cervical cancer screening reminders by population size through complete enumeration of Japanese local municipalities.

PubMed

Komoto, Shigekazu; Nishiwaki, Yuji; Okamura, Tomonori; Tanaka, Hideo; Takebayashi, Toru

2014-01-16

Client reminders are known to increase cancer screening attendance rates. However, there are significant costs associated with them, and their effect by population size is unknown. In 2007 and 2008, the Japanese Government surveyed breast and cervical cancer screening in every municipality in Japan. From the results, we selected all 1,464 municipalities that carried out both screening types. We examined whether changes in screening attendance rates between 2007 and 2008 were associated with client reminders, number of public health nurses per 100,000 population, financial strength index, and 2007 attendance rates for different population sizes. We then calculated cost-effectiveness estimates of client reminders by population size and screening type. Client reminders were associated with increased attendance rates in populations <100,000. For populations of 50,000-100,000, there was a 2.76% increase in breast cancer screening (95% CI: 0.41, 5.11), and a 2.25% increase in cervical cancer screening (95% CI: 0.89, 3.61). The incremental cost per additional attendance was higher in populations <50,000 than in populations of 50,000-100,000 (breast, $100 versus $54; cervical, $149 versus $67 respectively). Client reminders for breast and cervical cancer screening increased attendance rates in smaller municipalities in Japan.

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Ho Chi Minh City and Nghe An Using Social App Multiplier Method.

PubMed

Safarnejad, Ali; Nga, Nguyen Thien; Son, Vo Hai

2017-06-01

This study aims to estimate the number of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Nghe An province, Viet Nam, using a novel method of population size estimation, and to assess the feasibility of the method in implementation. An innovative approach to population size estimation grounded on the principles of the multiplier method, and using social app technology and internet-based surveys was undertaken among MSM in two regions of Viet Nam in 2015. Enumeration of active users of popular social apps for MSM in Viet Nam was conducted over 4 weeks. Subsequently, an independent online survey was done using respondent driven sampling. We also conducted interviews with key informants in Nghe An and HCMC on their experience and perceptions of this method and other methods of size estimation. The population of MSM in Nghe An province was estimated to be 1765 [90% CI 1251-3150]. The population of MSM in HCMC was estimated to be 37,238 [90% CI 24,146-81,422]. These estimates correspond to 0.17% of the adult male population in Nghe An province [90% CI 0.12-0.30], and 1.35% of the adult male population in HCMC [90% CI 0.87-2.95]. Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.35% [90% CI 0.87%-2.95%] of the adult male population in HCMC) fall within current standard practice of estimating 1-3% of adult male population in big cities. Our size estimates of the MSM population (0.17% [90% CI 0.12-0.30] of the adult male population in Nghe An province) are lower than the current standard practice of estimating 0.5-1.5% of adult male population in rural provinces. These estimates can provide valuable information for sub-national level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe that our results help to improve application of this population size estimation method in other regions of Viet Nam.

In situ monitoring, separation, and characterization of gold nanorod transformation during seed-mediated synthesis.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thao M; Pettibone, John M; Gigault, Julien; Hackley, Vincent A

2016-03-01

The control of gold nanorod (GNR) solution-based syntheses has been hindered in part by the inability to examine and control the conversion of precursor seed populations to anisotropic materials, which have resulted in low yields of desired products and limited their commercial viability. The advantages offered by tandem separation and characterization methods utilizing asymmetric-flow field flow fractionation (A4F) are principally achieved as a result of their non-disruptive nature (minimizing artefacts), fast throughput, and in-situ analysis. With hyphenated A4F methods, resolved populations of seeds and secondary products, up to long aspect ratio rods, have been achieved and exemplify progress towards elucidating mechanistic aspects of formation and thus rational design. While there have been previously reported studies on A4F separation of GNRs, to our knowledge, this is the first published investigation of in situ GNR growth, separation, and characterization based on A4F, where its utilization in this capacity goes beyond traditional separation analysis. By using hydroquinone as the reducing agent, the conversion of the initial seed population to a distribution of products, including the GNRs, could be monitored in real time using A4F hyphenated with a diode array detector. Transmission electron microscopy confirms that the number of peaks observed during fractionation corresponds with size and shape dispersity. This proof-of-principle study introduces A4F as a technique that establishes a foundation for future mechanistic studies on the growth of GNRs from gold seeds, including conversion of the seed population to initial products, a topic highly relevant to advancing progress in nanomanufacturing.

Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population

PubMed Central

Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M.

2015-01-01

The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann’s cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann’s rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution. PMID:26197998

Relationships of maternal body size and morphology with egg and clutch size in the diamondback terrapin, Malaclemys terrapin (Testudines: Emydidae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kern, Maximilian M.; Guzy, Jacquelyn C.; Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Gibbons, J. Whitfield; Dorcas, Michael E.

2016-01-01

Because resources are finite, female animals face trade-offs between the size and number of offspring they are able to produce during a single reproductive event. Optimal egg size (OES) theory predicts that any increase in resources allocated to reproduction should increase clutch size with minimal effects on egg size. Variations of OES predict that egg size should be optimized, although not necessarily constant across a population, because optimality is contingent on maternal phenotypes, such as body size and morphology, and recent environmental conditions. We examined the relationships among body size variables (pelvic aperture width, caudal gap height, and plastron length), clutch size, and egg width of diamondback terrapins from separate but proximate populations at Kiawah Island and Edisto Island, South Carolina. We found that terrapins do not meet some of the predictions of OES theory. Both populations exhibited greater variation in egg size among clutches than within, suggesting an absence of optimization except as it may relate to phenotype/habitat matching. We found that egg size appeared to be constrained by more than just pelvic aperture width in Kiawah terrapins but not in the Edisto population. Terrapins at Edisto appeared to exhibit osteokinesis in the caudal region of their shells, which may aid in the oviposition of large eggs.

The relative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on population genetic variation in the red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis).

PubMed

Bruggeman, Douglas J; Wiegand, Thorsten; Fernández, Néstor

2010-09-01

The relative influence of habitat loss, fragmentation and matrix heterogeneity on the viability of populations is a critical area of conservation research that remains unresolved. Using simulation modelling, we provide an analysis of the influence both patch size and patch isolation have on abundance, effective population size (N(e)) and F(ST). An individual-based, spatially explicit population model based on 15 years of field work on the red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) was applied to different landscape configurations. The variation in landscape patterns was summarized using spatial statistics based on O-ring statistics. By regressing demographic and genetics attributes that emerged across the landscape treatments against proportion of total habitat and O-ring statistics, we show that O-ring statistics provide an explicit link between population processes, habitat area, and critical thresholds of fragmentation that affect those processes. Spatial distances among land cover classes that affect biological processes translated into critical scales at which the measures of landscape structure correlated best with genetic indices. Therefore our study infers pattern from process, which contrasts with past studies of landscape genetics. We found that population genetic structure was more strongly affected by fragmentation than population size, which suggests that examining only population size may limit recognition of fragmentation effects that erode genetic variation. If effective population size is used to set recovery goals for endangered species, then habitat fragmentation effects may be sufficiently strong to prevent evaluation of recovery based on the ratio of census:effective population size alone.

Altitudinally divergent adult phenotypes in Iberian wall lizards are not driven by egg differences or hatchling growth rates.

PubMed

Ortega, Jesús; López, Pilar; Martín, José

2015-02-01

The interplay between ecological conditions and life histories has been widely acknowledged in vertebrates, particularly in lizards. Environmental conditions may exert different selective pressures and produce divergent phenotypes even in geographically and genetically close populations. The Iberian wall lizard constitutes a perfect model organism as it is considered a species complex with a complicated evolutionary history. Here, we focus on two proximate populations in which we examined adult morphology and reproductive investment of wild-caught lizards along a 500-m altitudinal gradient with contrasting environmental conditions, where adults show marked morphological differences in spite of being closely related. Also, we performed a common garden experiment to examine embryonic and hatchling growth. We focused on reproductive investment per clutch, incubation time, egg size, morphology and growth rate of hatchlings. Results showed clutch size differences between populations that were independent of the larger body size of highland females. However, there were no egg morphological differences between populations, except for egg width, and this difference disappeared after controlling for female body size. Hatchling lizards from both populations did not differ in morphology. Moreover, we did not observe differences between populations or sexes in hatchling growth. Overall, we provide evidence that the differences in adult body size and clutch size are not driven by size at hatching which is not contributed to by egg size, nor are intrinsic hatchling growth rates associated with the environmental conditions experienced in our common garden experiment, suggesting that adult phenotypes are not the result of intrinsic differences between populations.

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

PubMed

Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

2008-08-28

Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T.; Matney, Mark

2010-01-01

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Matney, M.; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T. G.

2010-01-01

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-01-01

1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). 2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. 3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. 4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. 5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). PMID:23419215

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-07-01

The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Survival analysis and classification methods for forest fire size

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Factors affecting wildland-fire size distribution include weather, fuels, and fire suppression activities. We present a novel application of survival analysis to quantify the effects of these factors on a sample of sizes of lightning-caused fires from Alberta, Canada. Two events were observed for each fire: the size at initial assessment (by the first fire fighters to arrive at the scene) and the size at “being held” (a state when no further increase in size is expected). We developed a statistical classifier to try to predict cases where there will be a growth in fire size (i.e., the size at “being held” exceeds the size at initial assessment). Logistic regression was preferred over two alternative classifiers, with covariates consistent with similar past analyses. We conducted survival analysis on the group of fires exhibiting a size increase. A screening process selected three covariates: an index of fire weather at the day the fire started, the fuel type burning at initial assessment, and a factor for the type and capabilities of the method of initial attack. The Cox proportional hazards model performed better than three accelerated failure time alternatives. Both fire weather and fuel type were highly significant, with effects consistent with known fire behaviour. The effects of initial attack method were not statistically significant, but did suggest a reverse causality that could arise if fire management agencies were to dispatch resources based on a-priori assessment of fire growth potentials. We discuss how a more sophisticated analysis of larger data sets could produce unbiased estimates of fire suppression effect under such circumstances. PMID:29320497

Survival analysis and classification methods for forest fire size.

PubMed

Tremblay, Pier-Olivier; Duchesne, Thierry; Cumming, Steven G

2018-01-01

Factors affecting wildland-fire size distribution include weather, fuels, and fire suppression activities. We present a novel application of survival analysis to quantify the effects of these factors on a sample of sizes of lightning-caused fires from Alberta, Canada. Two events were observed for each fire: the size at initial assessment (by the first fire fighters to arrive at the scene) and the size at "being held" (a state when no further increase in size is expected). We developed a statistical classifier to try to predict cases where there will be a growth in fire size (i.e., the size at "being held" exceeds the size at initial assessment). Logistic regression was preferred over two alternative classifiers, with covariates consistent with similar past analyses. We conducted survival analysis on the group of fires exhibiting a size increase. A screening process selected three covariates: an index of fire weather at the day the fire started, the fuel type burning at initial assessment, and a factor for the type and capabilities of the method of initial attack. The Cox proportional hazards model performed better than three accelerated failure time alternatives. Both fire weather and fuel type were highly significant, with effects consistent with known fire behaviour. The effects of initial attack method were not statistically significant, but did suggest a reverse causality that could arise if fire management agencies were to dispatch resources based on a-priori assessment of fire growth potentials. We discuss how a more sophisticated analysis of larger data sets could produce unbiased estimates of fire suppression effect under such circumstances.

Cold Ion Demagnetization near the X-line of Magnetic Reconnection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Toledo-Redondo, Serio; Andre, Mats; Khotyaintsev, Yuri V.; Vaivads, Andris; Walsh, Andrew; Li, Wenya; Graham, Daniel B.; Lavraud, Benoit; Masson, Arnaud; Aunai, Nicolas;

Cold ion demagnetization near the X-line of magnetic reconnection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toledo-Redondo, Sergio; André, Mats; Khotyaintsev, Yuri V.; Vaivads, Andris; Walsh, Andrew; Li, Wenya; Graham, Daniel B.; Lavraud, Benoit; Masson, Arnaud; Aunai, Nicolas; Divin, Andrey; Dargent, Jeremy; Fuselier, Stephen; Gershman, Daniel J.; Dorelli, John; Giles, Barbara; Avanov, Levon; Pollock, Craig; Saito, Yoshifumi; Moore, Thomas E.; Coffey, Victoria; Chandler, Michael O.; Lindqvist, Per-Arne; Torbert, Roy; Russell, Christopher T.

2016-07-01

Although the effects of magnetic reconnection in magnetospheres can be observed at planetary scales, reconnection is initiated at electron scales in a plasma. Surrounding the electron diffusion region, there is an Ion-Decoupling Region (IDR) of the size of the ion length scales (inertial length and gyroradius). Reconnection at the Earth's magnetopause often includes cold magnetospheric (few tens of eV), hot magnetospheric (10 keV), and magnetosheath (1 keV) ions, with different gyroradius length scales. We report observations of a subregion inside the IDR of the size of the cold ion population gyroradius (˜15 km) where the cold ions are demagnetized and accelerated parallel to the Hall electric field. Outside the subregion, cold ions follow the E × B motion together with electrons, while hot ions are demagnetized. We observe a sharp cold ion density gradient separating the two regions, which we identify as the cold and hot IDRs.

Integrating citizen-science data with movement models to estimate the size of a migratory golden eagle population

Treesearch

Andrew J. Dennhardt; Adam E. Duerr; David Brandes; Todd E. Katzner

2015-01-01

Estimating population size is fundamental to conservation and management. Population size is typically estimated using survey data, computer models, or both. Some of the most extensive and often least expensive survey data are those collected by citizen-scientists. A challenge to citizen-scientists is that the vagility of many organisms can complicate data collection....

Population size vs. social connectedness - A gene-culture coevolutionary approach to cumulative cultural evolution.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Wakano, Joe Y

2016-10-01

It has long been debated if population size is a crucial determinant of the level of culture. While empirical results are mixed, recent theoretical studies suggest that social connectedness between people may be a more important factor than the size of the entire population. These models, however, do not take into account evolutionary responses of learning strategies determining the mode of transmission and innovation and are hence not suitable for predicting the long-term implications of parameters of interest. In the present paper, to address this issue, we provide a gene-culture coevolution model, in which the microscopic learning process of each individual is explicitly described as a continuous-time stochastic process and time allocation to social and individual learning is allowed to evolve. We have found that social connectedness has a larger impact on the equilibrium level of culture than population size especially when connectedness is weak and population size is large. This result, combined with those of previous culture-only models, points to the importance of studying separate effects of population size and internal social structure to better understand spatiotemporal variation in the level of culture. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina).

PubMed

Clausius, Ella; McMahon, Clive R; Hindell, Mark A

2017-01-01

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach

PubMed Central

Boitard, Simon; Rodríguez, Willy; Jay, Flora; Mona, Stefano; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2016-01-01

Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles. PMID:26943927

Cascades in the Threshold Model for varying system sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karampourniotis, Panagiotis; Sreenivasan, Sameet; Szymanski, Boleslaw; Korniss, Gyorgy

2015-03-01

A classical model in opinion dynamics is the Threshold Model (TM) aiming to model the spread of a new opinion based on the social drive of peer pressure. Under the TM a node adopts a new opinion only when the fraction of its first neighbors possessing that opinion exceeds a pre-assigned threshold. Cascades in the TM depend on multiple parameters, such as the number and selection strategy of the initially active nodes (initiators), and the threshold distribution of the nodes. For a uniform threshold in the network there is a critical fraction of initiators for which a transition from small to large cascades occurs, which for ER graphs is largerly independent of the system size. Here, we study the spread contribution of each newly assigned initiator under the TM for different initiator selection strategies for synthetic graphs of various sizes. We observe that for ER graphs when large cascades occur, the spread contribution of the added initiator on the transition point is independent of the system size, while the contribution of the rest of the initiators converges to zero at infinite system size. This property is used for the identification of large transitions for various threshold distributions. Supported in part by ARL NS-CTA, ARO, ONR, and DARPA.

Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

PubMed Central

Aston, Elizabeth; Channon, Alastair; Day, Charles; Knight, Christopher G.

2013-01-01

Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has significant potential in aiding population management to prevent local (and global) extinction events. PMID:24386200

Monitoring Dolphins in an Urban Marine System: Total and Effective Population Size Estimates of Indo-Pacific Bottlenose Dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia

PubMed Central

Ansmann, Ina C.; Lanyon, Janet M.; Seddon, Jennifer M.; Parra, Guido J.

2013-01-01

Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008–2010. Abundance (N) was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne) was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Nec). A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554±22.2 (SE) (95% CI: 510–598) was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193±6.4 (SE) (95% CI: 181–207), while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446±56 (SE) (95% CI: 336–556) individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Nec = 56, 95% CI: 33–128) raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5%) declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys) at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect abundance trends. PMID:23755197

Effects of cadmium on growth, metamorphosis and gonadal sex differentiation in tadpoles of the African clawed frog, Xenopus laevis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharma, Bibek; Patino, R.

2009-01-01

Xenopus laevis larvae were exposed to cadmium (Cd) at 0, 1, 8, 85 or 860 ??g L-1 in FETAX medium from 0 to 86 d postfertilization. Premetamorphic tadpoles were sampled on day 31; pre and prometamorphic tadpoles on day 49; and frogs (NF stage 66) between days 50 and 86. Survival, snout-vent length (SVL), tail length, total length, hindlimb length (HLL), initiation of metamorphic climax, size at and completion of metamorphosis, and gonadal condition and sex ratio (assessed histologically) were determined. Survival was unaffected by Cd until day 49, but increased mortality was observed after day 49 at 860 ??g Cd L-1. On day 31, when tadpoles were in early premetamorphosis, inhibitory effects on tadpole growth were observed only at 860 ??g Cd L-1. On day 49, when most tadpoles where in late premetamorphosis/early prometamorphosis, reductions in SVL, HLL and total length were observed at 8 and 860 but not 85 ??g L-1, thus creating a U-shaped size distribution at 0-85 ??g Cd L-1. However, this U-shaped size pattern was not evident in postmetamorphic individuals. In fact, frog size at completion of metamorphosis was slightly smaller at 85 ??g Cd L-1relative to control animals. These observations confirmed a recent report of a Cd concentration-dependent bimodal growth pattern in late-premetamorphic Xenopus tadpoles, but also showed that growth responses to varying Cd concentrations change with development. The fraction of animals initiating or completing metamorphosis during days 50-86 was reduced in a Cd concentration-dependent manner. Testicular histology and population sex ratios were unaffected by Cd suggesting that, unlike mammals, Cd is not strongly estrogenic in Xenopus tadpoles. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.