Useful and Usable Climate Science: Frameworks for Bridging the Social and Physical domains.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buja, L.

2016-12-01

Society is transforming the Earth's system in unprecedented ways, often with significant variations across space and time. In turn, the impacts of climate change on the human system vary dramatically due to differences in cultural, socioeconomic, institutional, and physical processes at the local level. The Climate Science and Applications Program (CSAP) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder Colorado addresses societal vulnerability, impacts and adaptation to climate change through the development of frameworks and methods for analyzing current and future vulnerability, and integrated analyses of climate impacts and adaptation at local, regional and global scales. CSAP relies heavily on GIS-based scientific data and knowledge systems to bridge social and physical science approaches in its five focus areas: Governance of inter-linked natural and managed resource systems. The role of urban areas in driving emissions of climate change Weather, climate and global human health, GIS-based science data & knowledge systems. Regional Climate Science and Services for Adaptation Advanced methodologies and frameworks for assessing current and future risks to environmental hazards through the integration of physical and social science models, research results, and remote sensing data are presented in the context of recent national and international projects on climate change and food/water security, urban carbon emissions, metropolitan extreme heat and global health. In addition, innovative CSAP international capacity building programs teaching interdisciplinary approaches for using geospatial technologies to integrate multi-scale spatial information of weather, climate change into important sectors such as disaster reduction, agriculture, tourism and society for decision-making are discussed.

Quantifying Impacts of Land-use and Land Cover Change in a Changing Climate at the Regional Scale using an Integrated Earth System Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.

2016-12-01

Earth System models (ESMs) are effective tools for investigating the water-energy-food system interactions under climate change. In this presentation, I will introduce research efforts at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory towards quantifying impacts of LULCC on the water-energy-food nexus in a changing climate using an integrated regional Earth system modeling framework: the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA). Two studies will be discussed to showcase the capability of PRIMA: (1) quantifying changes in terrestrial hydrology over the Conterminous US (CONUS) from 2005 to 2095 using the Community Land Model (CLM) driven by high-resolution downscaled climate and land cover products from PRIMA, which was designed for assessing the impacts of and potential responses to climate and anthropogenic changes at regional scales; (2) applying CLM over the CONUS to provide the first county-scale model validation in simulating crop yields and assessing associated impacts on the water and energy budgets using CLM. The studies demonstrate the benefits of incorporating and coupling human activities into complex ESMs, and critical needs to account for the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of LULCC in climate impacts studies, and in designing mitigation and adaptation strategies at a scale meaningful for decision-making. Future directions in quantifying LULCC impacts on the water-energy-food nexus under a changing climate, as well as feedbacks among climate, energy production and consumption, and natural/managed ecosystems using an Integrated Multi-scale, Multi-sector Modeling framework will also be discussed.

Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

2012-12-01

As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems. While these initial experiments have relied on offline coupling methodologies, current and future experiments are utilizing a single model code developed to integrate GCAM into CESM as a component of the land model. This unique capability facilitates many new applications to scientific questions arising from human and biogeophysical systems interaction. Future developments will further integrate the energy system decisions and greenhouse gas emissions as simulated in GCAM with the appropriate climate and land system components of CESM.

Carbon-climate-human interactions in an integrated human-Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.

2016-12-01

The C4MIP and CMIP5 results highlighted large uncertainties in climate projections, driven to a large extent by limited understanding of the interactions between terrestrial carbon-cycle and climate feedbacks, and their associated uncertainties. These feedbacks are dominated by uncertainties in soil processes, disturbance dynamics, ecosystem response to climate change, and agricultural productivity, and land-use change. This research addresses three questions: (1) how do terrestrial feedbacks vary across different levels of climate change, (2) what is the relative contribution of CO2 fertilization and climate change, and (3) how robust are the results across different models and methods? We used a coupled modeling framework that integrates an Integrated Assessment Model (modeling economic and energy activity) with an Earth System Model (modeling the natural earth system) to examine how business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) climate change will affect ecosystem productivity, cropland extent, and other aspects of the human-Earth system. We find that higher levels of radiative forcing result in higher productivity growth, that increases in CO2 concentrations are the dominant contributors to that growth, and that our productivity increases fall in the middle of the range when compared to other CMIP5 models and the AgMIP models. These results emphasize the importance of examining both the anthropogenic and natural components of the earth system, and their long-term interactive feedbacks.

Climate change and One Health.

PubMed

Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

2018-06-01

The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.

Climate change and One Health

PubMed Central

Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

2018-01-01

Abstract The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change. PMID:29790983

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Gao, X.

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity, with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also nd that dierent initial conditions lead to dierences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

A Systems Perspective on Responses to Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

The science of climate change integrates many scientific fields to explain and predict the complex effects of greenhouse gas concentrations on the planet’s energy balance, weather patterns, and ecosystems as well as economic and social systems. A changing climate requires respons...

Uncertainties in Integrated Climate Change Impact Assessments by Sub-setting GCMs Based on Annual as well as Crop Growing Period under Rice Based Farming System of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillai, S. N.; Singh, H.; Panwar, A. S.; Meena, M. S.; Singh, S. V.; Singh, B.; Paudel, G. P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Ruane, A. C.; McDermid, S.; Boote, K. J.; Porter, C.; Valdivia, R. O.

2016-12-01

Integrated assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity is a challenge to the scientific community due to uncertainties of input data, particularly the climate, soil, crop calibration and socio-economic dataset. However, the uncertainty due to selection of GCMs is the major source due to complex underlying processes involved in initial as well as the boundary conditions dealt in solving the air-sea interactions. Under Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Indo-Gangetic Plains Regional Research Team investigated the uncertainties caused due to selection of GCMs through sub-setting based on annual as well as crop-growth period of rice-wheat systems in AgMIP Integrated Assessment methodology. The AgMIP Phase II protocols were used to study the linking of climate-crop-economic models for two study sites Meerut and Karnal to analyse the sensitivity of current production systems to climate change. Climate Change Projections were made using 29 CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 during mid-century period (2040-2069). Two crop models (APSIM & DSSAT) were used. TOA-MD economic model was used for integrated assessment. Based on RAPs (Representative Agricultural Pathways), some of the parameters, which are not possible to get through modeling, derived from literature and interactions with stakeholders incorporated into the TOA-MD model for integrated assessment.

Tipping Points and Balancing Acts: Grand Challenges and Synergistic Opportunities of Integrating Research and Education, Science and Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, M. S.; Stroeve, J. C.

2011-12-01

The "Grand Challenges" to address Global Change identified by the International Council for Science (ICSU) and its partners through the Earth System Sustainability Initiative-improving forecasting, enhancing and integrating observation systems, confining and minimizing global environmental change, responding effectively to change, as well as innovating and evaluating these efforts-require an integrative approach that engages and inspires society in general and young people in particular. What are some of the effective strategies-and stumbling blocks-in being able to make Earth System science and related sustainability efforts relevant and practical to non-technical audiences? Recent climate education projects have pioneered new strategies toward linking and infusing research with education, science with solutions. For example, the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN), a National Science Digital Library Pathway funded by NSF, has approached this integral approach by "closing the loop" between climate and energy topics, identifying and annotating high quality online resources relating to the carbon cycle and related topics. The Inspiring Climate Education Excellence (ICEE) project, funded by NASA, offers professional development for teachers that infuses climate science with solutions as an emerging "best practice" while being sensitive to the emotional, psychological and political aspects of avoiding "gloom and doom" on one hand or advocating for particular policy solutions on another. Other examples includes NASA's climate website (http://climate.nasa.gov ), which serves as a robust, engaging portal for climate research and data, especially for educators. The recent PBS series Earth: The Operators' Manual and related book and website are other recent example of how climate science research, education and solutions can be incorporated in a way that is appealing and informative. The Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) has given assemblies in thousands of US high schools that integrate climate science and solutions in a way that inspires and informs youth, and similar programs exist internationally. Other approaches to prepare vulnerable communities, especially young people, for natural hazards and human-induced environmental change include programs such as Plan International's "Child Centered Disaster Risk Reduction- Building Resilience Through Participation," and their "Weathering the Storm" project, focusing on integrating the needs of teenage girls with climate change adaptation and risk reduction. While minimizing global environmental and climate change is crucial, these and related programs that weave research with education, science with solutions offer the potential for addressing the "Grand Challenges" by better preparing for societal and environmental tipping points through a more balanced and integrated approach to addressing change."

Teaching Climate Social Science and Its Practices: A Two-Pronged Approach to Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shwom, R.; Isenhour, C.; McCright, A.; Robinson, J.; Jordan, R.

2014-12-01

The Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy states that a climate-literate individual can: "understand the essential principles of Earth's climate system, assess scientifically credible information about climate change, communicate about climate and climate change in a meaningful way, and make informed and responsible decisions with regard to actions that may affect climate." We argue that further integration of the social science dimensions of climate change will advance the climate literacy goals of communication and responsible actions. The underlying rationale for this argues: 1) teaching the habits of mind and scientific practices that have synergies across the social and natural sciences can strengthen students ability to understand and assess science in general and that 2) understanding the empirical research on the social, political, and economic processes (including climate science itself) that are part of the climate system is an important step for enabling effective action and communication. For example, while climate literacy has often identified the public's faulty mental models of climate processes as a partial explanation of complacency, emerging research suggests that the public's mental models of the social world are equally or more important in leading to informed and responsible climate decisions. Building student's ability to think across the social and natural sciences by understanding "how we know what we know" through the sciences and a scientific understanding of the social world allows us to achieve climate literacy goals more systematically and completely. To enable this integration we first identify the robust social science insights for the climate science literacy principles that involve social systems. We then briefly identify significant social science contributions to climate science literacy that do not clearly fit within the seven climate literacy principles but arguably could advance climate literacy goals. We conclude with suggestions on how the identified social science insights could be integrated into climate literacy efforts.

Challenges in Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into Integrated Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirshen, P. H.; Cardwell, H.; Kartez, J.; Merrill, S.

2011-12-01

Over the last few decades, integrated water resources management (IWRM), under various names, has become the accepted philosophy for water management in the USA. While much is still to be learned about how to actually carry it out, implementation is slowly moving forward - spurred by both legislation and the demands of stakeholders. New challenges to IWRM have arisen because of climate change. Climate change has placed increased demands on the creativities of planners and engineers because they now must design systems that will function over decades of hydrologic uncertainties that dwarf any previous hydrologic or other uncertainties. Climate and socio-economic monitoring systems must also now be established to determine when the future climate has changed sufficiently to warrant undertaking adaptation. The requirements for taking some actions now and preserving options for future actions as well as the increased risk of social inequities in climate change impacts and adaptation are challenging experts in stakeholder participation. To meet these challenges, an integrated methodology is essential that builds upon scenario analysis, risk assessment, statistical decision theory, participatory planning, and consensus building. This integration will create cross-disciplinary boundaries for these disciplines to overcome.

Issues in Integrating Information Technology in Learning and Teaching EFL: The Saudi Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Maini, Yousef Hamad

2013-01-01

The Saudi education system is facing a climate of change characterized by an interest in integrating new technology and educational approaches to improve teaching and learning. In this climate, the present paper explores the issues in integrating information technology in learning and teaching English as a foreign language (EFL) in government…

Modeling U.S. water resources under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elodie; Strzepek, Kenneth; Schlosser, Adam; Jacoby, Henry; Gueneau, Arthur; Fant, Charles; Rausch, Sebastian; Reilly, John

2014-04-01

Water is at the center of a complex and dynamic system involving climatic, biological, hydrological, physical, and human interactions. We demonstrate a new modeling system that integrates climatic and hydrological determinants of water supply with economic and biological drivers of sectoral and regional water requirement while taking into account constraints of engineered water storage and transport systems. This modeling system is an extension of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model framework and is unique in its consistent treatment of factors affecting water resources and water requirements. Irrigation demand, for example, is driven by the same climatic conditions that drive evapotranspiration in natural systems and runoff, and future scenarios of water demand for power plant cooling are consistent with energy scenarios driving climate change. To illustrate the modeling system we select "wet" and "dry" patterns of precipitation for the United States from general circulation models used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Results suggest that population and economic growth alone would increase water stress in the United States through mid-century. Climate change generally increases water stress with the largest increases in the Southwest. By identifying areas of potential stress in the absence of specific adaptation responses, the modeling system can help direct attention to water planning that might then limit use or add storage in potentially stressed regions, while illustrating how avoiding climate change through mitigation could change likely outcomes.

Academic and social integration on campus among sexual minority students: the impacts of psychological and experiential campus climate.

PubMed

Woodford, Michael R; Kulick, Alex

2015-03-01

A heterosexist campus climate can increase risk for mental health problems for sexual minority students; however, the relationship between campus climate for sexual minorities and academic outcomes remains understudied. Using a sample of sexual minority respondents extracted from a campus climate survey conducted at a large university in the Midwest, we examine relationships between multiple dimensions of psychological and experiential campus climate for sexual minorities with academic integration (academic disengagement, grade-point average [GPA]) and social integration (institutional satisfaction, acceptance on campus). We also investigate the protective role of engagement with informal academic and peer-group systems. Findings suggest campus climate affects sexual minority students' integration. In multivariate analyses, perceptions of whether lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) people could be open about their sexual identity was positively associated with acceptance on campus; personal heterosexist harassment was positively associated with academic disengagement and negatively with GPA. Students' informal academic integration (instructor relations) and informal social integration (LGB friends) demonstrated influential main effects but did not moderate any of the climate-outcome relationships. Researchers should further explore the relationships between climate and academic outcomes among sexual minority students, both collectively and among specific sub-groups, and address the role of other protective factors.

The Pacific Northwest's Climate Impacts Group: Climate Science in the Public Interest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantua, N.; Snover, A.

2006-12-01

Since its inception in 1995, the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group (CIG) (funded under NOAA's Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) Program) has become the leader in exploring the impacts of climate variability and climate change on natural and human systems in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW), specifically climate impacts on water, forest, fish and coastal resource systems. The CIG's research provides PNW planners, decision makers, resource managers, local media, and the general public with valuable knowledge of ways in which the region's key natural resources are vulnerable to changes in climate, and how this vulnerability can be reduced. The CIG engages in climate science in the public interest, conducting original research on the causes and consequences of climate variability and change for the PNW and developing forecasts and decision support tools to support the use of this information in federal, state, local, tribal, and private sector resource management decisions. The CIG's focus on the intersection of climate science and public policy has placed the CIG nationally at the forefront of regional climate impacts assessment and integrated analysis.

Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth system and integrated assessment modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Van Vuuren, Detlef

2010-11-15

This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and AQ3 modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysical and biogeochemical interactions of land-cover change with the climate system. Both the Earth System and the Integrated Assessment modeling communities recognize the importance of an accurate representation of land use and land-cover change to understand and quantify the interactions and feedbacks with the climate and socio-economic systems, respectively. To date, cooperation between these communities has been limited. Based on common interests, this work discusses research priorities in representing land use and land-cover change for improvedmore » collaboration across modelling, observing and measurement communities. Major research topics in land use and land-cover change are those that help us better understand (1) the interaction of land use and land cover with the climate system (e.g. carbon cycle feedbacks), (2) the provision of goods and ecosystem services by terrestrial (natural and anthropogenic) land-cover types (e.g. food production), (3) land use and management decisions and (4) opportunities and limitations for managing climate change (for both mitigation and adaptation strategies).« less

Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

ScienceCinema

None

2018-01-16

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2016-07-27

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

2017-04-01

One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European contribution to ESGF and contributes to the ESGF open source effort, notably through the development of search, monitoring, quality control, and metadata services. In its second phase, IS-ENES2 supports the implementation of regional climate model results from the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). These services were extended within the European FP7 Climate Information Portal for Copernicus (CLIPC) project, and some could be later integrated into the European Copernicus platform.

Coupling integrated assessment and earth system models: concepts and an application to land use change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Lawrence, P.; Ren, X.

2016-12-01

Collaboration between the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) and earth system modeling (ESM) communities is increasing, driven by a growing interest in research questions that require analysis integrating both social and natural science components. This collaboration often takes the form of integrating their respective models. There are a number of approaches available to implement this integration, ranging from one-way linkages to full two-way coupling, as well as approaches that retain a single modeling framework but improve the representation of processes from the other framework. We discuss the pros and cons of these different approaches and the conditions under which a two-way coupling of IAMs and ESMs would be favored over a one-way linkage. We propose a criterion that is necessary and sufficient to motivate two-way coupling: A human process must have an effect on an earth system process that is large enough to cause a change in the original human process that is substantial compared to other uncertainties in the problem being investigated. We then illustrate a test of this criterion for land use-climate interactions based on work using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and land use scenarios from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), in which we find that the land use effect on regional climate is unlikely to meet the criterion. We then show an example of implementing a one-way linkage of land use and agriculture between an IAM, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, and CESM that produces fully consistent outcomes between iPETS and the CESM land surface model. We use the linked system to model the influence of climate change on crop yields, agricultural land use, crop prices and food consumption under two alternative future climate scenarios. This application demonstrates the ability to link an IAM to a global land surface and climate model in a computationally efficient manner.

Energetic contribution potential of building-integrated photovoltaics on airports in warm climates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruether, Ricardo; LABSOLAR - Laboratorio de Energia Solar, UFSC - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Caixa Postal 476, Florianopolis, SC 88040-900; Braun, Priscila

2009-10-15

Especially in warm climates, a considerable fraction of the electricity demand in commercial buildings is due to the intensive use of air-conditioning systems. Airport buildings in sunny and warm regions present a perfect match between energy demand and solar resource availability. Airport buildings are also typically large and horizontal, isolated and free of shading, and have a great potential for the integration of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. In this work, we assess the potential impact in energy demand reduction at the Florianopolis International Airport in Brazil (27 S, 48 W) with the use of building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. We analysemore » the building's hourly energy consumption and solar irradiation data, to assess the match between energy demand and potential generation, and we estimate the PV power necessary to supply both the total amount and fractions of the annual energy demand. Our results show that the integration of PV systems on airport buildings in warm climates can supply the entire electric power consumption of an airport complex, in line with the general concept of a zero-energy building (ZEB). (author)« less

A System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) to Climate Change

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch

2011-01-01

Sustained conservation of species requires integration of future climate change effects, but few tools exist to assist managers. The System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) identifies the relative vulnerability or resilience of vertebrate species to climate change. Designed for managers, the SAVS is an easily applied tool that uses a questionnaire of 22...

Data Integration Plans for the NOAA National Climate Model Portal (NCMP) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, G. K.; Williams, D. N.; Deluca, C.; Hankin, S. C.; Compo, G. P.

2010-12-01

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and its collaborators have initiated a five-year development and implementation of an operational access capability for the next generation weather and climate model datasets. The NOAA National Climate Model Portal (NCMP) is being designed using format neutral open web based standards and tools where users at all levels of expertise can gain access and understanding to many of NOAA’s climate and weather model products. NCMP will closely coordinate with and reside under the emerging NOAA Climate Services Portal (NCSP). To carry out its mission, NOAA must be able to successfully integrate model output and other data and information from all of its discipline specific areas to understand and address the complexity of many environmental problems. The NCMP will be an initial access point for the emerging NOAA Climate Services Portal (NCSP), which is the basis for unified access to NOAA climate products and services. NCMP is currently collaborating with the emerging Environmental Projection Center (EPC) expected to be developed at the Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder CO. Specifically, NCMP is being designed to: - Enable policy makers and resource managers to make informed national and global policy decisions using integrated climate and weather model outputs, observations, information, products, and other services for the scientist and the non-scientist; - Identify model to observational interoperability requirements for climate and weather system analysis and diagnostics; - Promote the coordination of an international reanalysis observational clearinghouse (i.e.., Reanalysis.org) spanning the worlds numerical processing Center’s for an “Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System”. NCMP will initially provide access capabilities to 3 of NOAA’s high volume Reanalysis data sets of the weather and climate systems: 1) NCEP’s Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS-R); 2) NOAA’s Climate Diagnostics Center/ Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project data set (20CR, G. Compo, et al.), a historical reanalysis that will provide climate information dating back to 1850 to the present; and 3) the CPC’s Upper Air Reanlaysis. NCMP will advance the highly successful NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS, Rutledge, BAMS 2006), and standards already in use including Unidata’s THREDDS (TDS), PMEL’s Live Access Server (LAS) and the GrADS Data Server (GDS) from COLA; the Department of Energy (DOE) Earth System Grid (ESG) and the associated IPCC Climate model archive located at the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Inter-comparison (PCMDI) through the ESG; and NOAA’s Unified Access Framework (UAF) effort; and core standards developed by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The format neutral OPeNDAP protocol as used in the NOMADS system will also be a key aspect of the design of NCMP.

Assessment of Folsom Lake Watershed response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carpenter, Theresa M.; Georgakakos, Konstantine P.

2000-01-01

An integrated forecast-control system was designed to allow the profitable use of ensemble forecasts for the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs. The system ingests large-scale climate model monthly precipitation through the adjustment of the marginal distribution of reservoir-catchment precipitation to reflect occurrence of monthly climate precipitation amounts in the extreme terciles of their distribution. Generation of ensemble reservoir inflow forecasts is then accomplished with due account for atmospheric- forcing and hydrologic- model uncertainties. These ensemble forecasts are ingested by the decision component of the integrated system, which generates non- inferior trade-off surfaces and, given management preferences, estimates of reservoir- management benefits over given periods. In collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation and the California Nevada River Forecast Center, the integrated system is applied to Folsom Lake in California to evaluate the benefits for flood control, hydroelectric energy production, and low flow augmentation. In addition to retrospective studies involving the historical period 1964-1993, system simulations were performed for the future period 2001-2030, under a control (constant future greenhouse-gas concentrations assumed at the present levels) and a greenhouse-gas- increase (1-% per annum increase assumed) scenario. The present paper presents and validates ensemble 30-day reservoir- inflow forecasts under a variety of situations. Corresponding reservoir management results are presented in Yao and Georgakakos, A., this issue. Principle conclusions of this paper are that the integrated system provides reliable ensemble inflow volume forecasts at the 5-% confidence level for the majority of the deciles of forecast frequency, and that the use of climate model simulations is beneficial mainly during high flow periods. It is also found that, for future periods with potential sharp climatic increases of precipitation amount and to maintain good reliability levels, operational ensemble inflow forecasting should involve atmospheric forcing from appropriate climatic periods.

Implementation of Malaria Dynamic Models in Municipality Level Early Warning Systems in Colombia. Part I: Description of Study Sites

PubMed Central

Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M.; Quiñónes, Martha L.; Jiménez, Mónica M.; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.

2014-01-01

As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. PMID:24891460

The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, Olivier

2016-04-01

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of analysing GCMs with the step-experiments. Acknowledgments: This work is supported by the FP7 HELIX project (www.helixclimate.eu) References: Anandarajah, G., Pye, S., Usher, W., Kesicki, F., & Mcglade, C. (2011). TIAM-UCL Global model documentation. https://www.ucl.ac.uk/energy-models/models/tiam-ucl/tiam-ucl-manual Good, P., Gregory, J. M., Lowe, J. A., & Andrews, T. (2013). Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections. Climate Dynamics, 40(3-4), 1041-1053.

Assessing state efforts to integrate transportation, land use and climate change.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a threat to life on earth. Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further : warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, perv...

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields.

PubMed

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; Monier, Erwan

2017-08-01

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climate change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.

Feedbacks between climate change and biosphere integrity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lade, Steven; Anderies, J. Marty; Donges, Jonathan; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine; Cornell, Sarah; Norberg, Jon; Fetzer, Ingo

2017-04-01

The terrestrial and marine biospheres sink substantial fractions of human fossil fuel emissions. How the biosphere's capacity to sink carbon depends on biodiversity and other measures of biosphere integrity is however poorly understood. Here, we (1): review assumptions from literature regarding the relationships between the carbon cycle and the terrestrial and marine biospheres; and (2) explore the consequences of these different assumptions for climate feedbacks using the stylised carbon cycle model PB-INT. We find that: terrestrial biodiversity loss could significantly dampen climate-carbon cycle feedbacks; direct biodiversity effects, if they exist, could rival temperature increases from low-emission trajectories; and the response of the marine biosphere is critical for longer term climate change. Simple, low-dimensional climate models such as PB-INT can help assess the importance of still unknown or controversial earth system processes such as biodiversity loss for climate feedbacks. This study constitutes the first detailed study of the interactions between climate change and biosphere integrity, two of the 'planetary boundaries'.

The impact of climate change on smallholder and subsistence agriculture.

PubMed

Morton, John F

2007-12-11

Some of the most important impacts of global climate change will be felt among the populations, predominantly in developing countries, referred to as "subsistence" or "smallholder" farmers. Their vulnerability to climate change comes both from being predominantly located in the tropics, and from various socioeconomic, demographic, and policy trends limiting their capacity to adapt to change. However, these impacts will be difficult to model or predict because of (i) the lack of standardised definitions of these sorts of farming system, and therefore of standard data above the national level, (ii) intrinsic characteristics of these systems, particularly their complexity, their location-specificity, and their integration of agricultural and nonagricultural livelihood strategies, and (iii) their vulnerability to a range of climate-related and other stressors. Some recent work relevant to these farming systems is reviewed, a conceptual framework for understanding the diverse forms of impacts in an integrated manner is proposed, and future research needs are identified.

Climate information for public health: the role of the IRI climate data library in an integrated knowledge system.

PubMed

del Corral, John; Blumenthal, M Benno; Mantilla, Gilma; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

2012-09-01

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate. Significant challenges to building the capacity of health professionals to use climate information in research and decision-making include the difficulties experienced by many in accessing relevant and timely quality controlled data and information in formats that can be readily incorporated into specific analysis with other data sources. We present here the capacities of the IRI climate data library and show how we have used it to build an integrated knowledge system in the support of the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive decision-making with respect to health. Initiated as an aid facilitating exploratory data analysis for climate scientists, the IRI climate data library has emerged as a powerful tool for interdisciplinary researchers focused on topics related to climate impacts on society, including health.

The integrated effects of future climate and hydrologic uncertainty on sustainable flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

2013-12-01

Flood risk management performance is investigated within the context of integrated climate and hydrologic modeling uncertainty to explore system robustness. The research question investigated is whether structural and hydrologic parameterization uncertainties are significant relative to other uncertainties such as climate change when considering water resources system performance. Two hydrologic models are considered, a conceptual, lumped parameter model that preserves the water balance and a physically-based model that preserves both water and energy balances. In the conceptual model, parameter and structural uncertainties are quantified and propagated through the analysis using a Bayesian modeling framework with an innovative error model. Mean climate changes and internal climate variability are explored using an ensemble of simulations from a stochastic weather generator. The approach presented can be used to quantify the sensitivity of flood protection adequacy to different sources of uncertainty in the climate and hydrologic system, enabling the identification of robust projects that maintain adequate performance despite the uncertainties. The method is demonstrated in a case study for the Coralville Reservoir on the Iowa River, where increased flooding over the past several decades has raised questions about potential impacts of climate change on flood protection adequacy.

Modeling human-climate interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacoby, Henry D.

If policymakers and the public are to be adequately informed about the climate change threat, climate modeling needs to include components far outside its conventional boundaries. An integration of climate chemistry and meteorology, oceanography, and terrestrial biology has been achieved over the past few decades. More recently the scope of these studies has been expanded to include the human systems that influence the planet, the social and ecological consequences of potential change, and the political processes that lead to attempts at mitigation and adaptation. For example, key issues—like the relative seriousness of climate change risk, the choice of long-term goals for policy, and the analysis of today's decisions when uncertainty may be reduced tomorrow—cannot be correctly understood without joint application of the natural science of the climate system and social and behavioral science aspects of human response. Though integration efforts have made significant contributions to understanding of the climate issue, daunting intellectual and institutional barriers stand in the way of needed progress. Deciding appropriate policies will be a continuing task over the long term, however, so efforts to extend the boundaries of climate modeling and assessment merit long-term attention as well. Components of the effort include development of a variety of approaches to analysis, the maintenance of a clear a division between close-in decision support and science/policy research, and the development of funding institutions that can sustain integrated research over the long haul.

Opportunities and Examples for Integration of Socio-environmental Approaches to Support Climate-informed Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenney, M. A.

2014-12-01

Climate and environmental decisions require science that couples human and natural systems to quantify or articulate the observed physical, natural, and societal changes or likely consequences of different decision options. Despite the need for such policy-relevant research, multidisciplinary collaborations can be wrought with challenges of data integration, model interoperability, and communication across disciplinary divides. In this talk, I will present several examples where I have collaborated with colleagues from the physical, natural, and social sciences to develop novel, actionable science to inform decision-making. Specifically, I will discuss a cost analysis of water and sediment diversions to optimize land building in the Mississippi River delta (winner of American Geophysical Union Water Resources Research Editor's Choice Award 2014) and the development of a National Climate Indicator System that uses knowledge across the physical, natural, and social sciences to establish an end-to-end indicator system of climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. The latter project is in the process of moving from research to operations, an additional challenge and opportunity, as we work with the U.S. Global Change Research Program and their affiliated Federal agencies to establish it beyond the research prototype. Using these examples, I will provide some lessons learned that would have general applicability to socio-environmental research collaborations and integration of data, models, and information systems to support climate and environmental decision-making.

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

PubMed

Monier, Erwan; Paltsev, Sergey; Sokolov, Andrei; Chen, Y-H Henry; Gao, Xiang; Ejaz, Qudsia; Couzo, Evan; Schlosser, C Adam; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Fant, Charles; Scott, Jeffery; Kicklighter, David; Morris, Jennifer; Jacoby, Henry; Prinn, Ronald; Haigh, Martin

2018-02-13

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

Adapting agriculture to climate change.

PubMed

Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

2007-12-11

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

Development, malaria and adaptation to climate change: a case study from India.

PubMed

Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R C; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P R

2009-05-01

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.

Development, Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R. C.; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P. R.

2009-05-01

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.

Tradeoffs in the quest for climate smart agricultural intensification in Mato Grosso, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil, Juliana D. B.; Garrett, Rachael D.; Rotz, Alan; Daioglou, Vassilis; Valentim, Judson; Pires, Gabrielle F.; Costa, Marcos H.; Lopes, Luciano; Reis, Julio C.

2018-06-01

Low productivity cattle ranching, with its linkages to rural poverty, deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, remains one of the largest sustainability challenges in Brazil and has impacts worldwide. There is a nearly universal call to intensify extensive beef cattle production systems to spare land for crop production and nature and to meet Brazil’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution to reducing global climate change. However, different interventions aimed at the intensification of livestock systems in Brazil may involve substantial social and environmental tradeoffs. Here we examine these tradeoffs using a whole-farm model calibrated for the Brazilian agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, one of the largest soybean and beef cattle production regions in the world. Specifically, we compare the costs and benefits of a typical extensive, continuously grazed cattle system relative to a specialized soybean production system and two improved cattle management strategies (rotational grazing and integrated soybean-cattle) under different climate scenarios. We found clear tradeoffs in GHG and nitrogen emissions, climate resilience, and water and energy use across these systems. Relative to continuously grazed or rotationally grazed cattle systems, the integreated soybean-cattle system showed higher food production and lower GHG emissions per unit of human digestible protein, as well as increased resilience under climate change (both in terms of productivity and financial returns). All systems suffered productivity and profitability losses under severe climate change, highlighting the need for climate smart agricultural development strategies in the region. By underscoring the economic feasibility of improving the performance of cattle systems, and by quantifying the tradeoffs of each option, our results are useful for directing agricultural and climate policy.

New tools for linking human and earth system models: The Toolbox for Human-Earth System Interaction & Scaling (THESIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Kauffman, B.; Lawrence, P.

2016-12-01

Integrated analysis of questions regarding land, water, and energy resources often requires integration of models of different types. One type of integration is between human and earth system models, since both societal and physical processes influence these resources. For example, human processes such as changes in population, economic conditions, and policies govern the demand for land, water and energy, while the interactions of these resources with physical systems determine their availability and environmental consequences. We have begun to develop and use a toolkit for linking human and earth system models called the Toolbox for Human-Earth System Integration and Scaling (THESIS). THESIS consists of models and software tools to translate, scale, and synthesize information from and between human system models and earth system models (ESMs), with initial application to linking the NCAR integrated assessment model, iPETS, with the NCAR earth system model, CESM. Initial development is focused on urban areas and agriculture, sectors that are both explicitly represented in both CESM and iPETS. Tools are being made available to the community as they are completed (see https://www2.cgd.ucar.edu/sections/tss/iam/THESIS_tools). We discuss four general types of functions that THESIS tools serve (Spatial Distribution, Spatial Properties, Consistency, and Outcome Evaluation). Tools are designed to be modular and can be combined in order to carry out more complex analyses. We illustrate their application to both the exposure of population to climate extremes and to the evaluation of climate impacts on the agriculture sector. For example, projecting exposure to climate extremes involves use of THESIS tools for spatial population, spatial urban land cover, the characteristics of both, and a tool to bring urban climate information together with spatial population information. Development of THESIS tools is continuing and open to the research community.

Urban Flood Management with Integrated Inland-River System in Seoul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Y. I.; Kim, J. S.; Yuk, J. M.

2015-12-01

Global warming and climate change have caused significant damage and loss of life worldwide. The pattern of natural disasters has gradually diversified and their frequency is increasing. The impact of climate change on flood risk in urban rivers is of particular interest because these areas are typically densely populated. The occurrence of urban river flooding due to climate change not only causes significant loss of life and property but also causes health and social problems. It is therefore necessary to develop a scientific urban flood management system to cope with and reduce the impacts of climate change, including flood damage. In this study, we are going to introduce Integrated Inland-River Flood Analysis System in Seoul to conduct predictions on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and perform prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded areas. In addition, this urban flood management system can be used as a tool for decision making of systematic disaster prevention through real-time monitoring.

The Geographic Climate Information System Project (GEOCLIMA): Overview and preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Melas, D.; Vaitis, M.; Anadranistakis, E.; Symeonidis, P.; Pantelopoulos, S.

2012-04-01

The project GEOCLIMA aims at developing an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) allowing the user to manage, analyze and visualize the information which is directly or indirectly related to climate and its future projections in Greece. The main components of the project are: a) collection and homogenization of climate and environmental related information, b) estimation of future climate change based on existing regional climate model (RCM) simulations as well as a supplementary high resolution (10 km x 10 km) simulation over the period 1961-2100 using RegCM3, c) compilation of an integrated uniform geographic database, and d) mapping of climate data, creation of digital thematic maps, and development of the integrated web GIS application. This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research efforts and preliminary results of the project. First, the trends in the annual and seasonal time series of precipitation and air temperature observations for all available stations in Greece are assessed. Then the set-up of the high resolution RCM simulation (10 km x 10 km) is discussed with respect to the selected convective scheme. Finally, the relationship of climatic variables with geophysical features over Greece such as altitude, location, distance from the sea, slope, aspect, distance from climatic barriers, land cover etc) is investigated, to support climate mapping. The research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009.

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

Yinong Sun | NREL

Science.gov Websites

integration Impacts of climate change on energy system evolution Energy policy analysis Education M.E.M. in . Electric Sector Climate Impacts. International Energy Workshop, Maryland. View all NREL publications for

Are Global In-Situ Ocean Observations Fit-for-purpose? Applying the Framework for Ocean Observing in the Atlantic.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visbeck, M.; Fischer, A. S.; Le Traon, P. Y.; Mowlem, M. C.; Speich, S.; Larkin, K.

2015-12-01

There are an increasing number of global, regional and local processes that are in need of integrated ocean information. In the sciences ocean information is needed to support physical ocean and climate studies for example within the World Climate Research Programme and its CLIVAR project, biogeochemical issues as articulated by the GCP, IMBER and SOLAS projects of ICSU-SCOR and Future Earth. This knowledge gets assessed in the area of climate by the IPCC and biodiversity by the IPBES processes. The recently released first World Ocean Assessment focuses more on ecosystem services and there is an expectation that the Sustainable Development Goals and in particular Goal 14 on the Ocean and Seas will generate new demands for integrated ocean observing from Climate to Fish and from Ocean Resources to Safe Navigation and on a healthy, productive and enjoyable ocean in more general terms. In recognition of those increasing needs for integrated ocean information we have recently launched the Horizon 2020 AtlantOS project to promote the transition from a loosely-coordinated set of existing ocean observing activities to a more integrated, more efficient, more sustainable and fit-for-purpose Atlantic Ocean Observing System. AtlantOS takes advantage of the Framework for Ocean observing that provided strategic guidance for the design of the project and its outcome. AtlantOS will advance the requirements and systems design, improving the readiness of observing networks and data systems, and engaging stakeholders around the Atlantic. AtlantOS will bring Atlantic nations together to strengthen their complementary contributions to and benefits from the internationally coordinated Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the Blue Planet Initiative of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). AtlantOS will fill gaps of the in-situ observing system networks and will ensure that their data are readily accessible and useable. AtlantOS will demonstrate the utility of integrating in-situ and remotely sensed Earth observations to produce information products supporting a wide range of sectors. AtlantOS will support activities to share best practice, integrate data streams and promote the standardization of in-situ observations. AtlantOS will promote network integration, optimization and new technologies.

Evaluating the Contribution of Natural Variability and Climate Model Response to Uncertainty in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Air Quality

EPA Science Inventory

We examine the effects of internal variability and model response in projections of climate impacts on U.S. ground-level ozone across the 21st century using integrated global system modeling and global atmospheric chemistry simulations. The impact of climate change on air polluti...

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

System and Method for Providing a Climate Data Analytic Services Application Programming Interface Distribution Package

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tamkin, Glenn S. (Inventor); Duffy, Daniel Q. (Inventor); Schnase, John L. (Inventor)

2016-01-01

A system, method and computer-readable storage devices for providing a climate data analytic services application programming interface distribution package. The example system can provide various components. The system provides a climate data analytic services application programming interface library that enables software applications running on a client device to invoke the capabilities of a climate data analytic service. The system provides a command-line interface that provides a means of interacting with a climate data analytic service by issuing commands directly to the system's server interface. The system provides sample programs that call on the capabilities of the application programming interface library and can be used as templates for the construction of new client applications. The system can also provide test utilities, build utilities, service integration utilities, and documentation.

AgMIP's Transdisciplinary Agricultural Systems Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antle, John M.; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Janssen, Sander; Jones, James W.; Porter, Cheryl H.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Thorburn, Peter J.

2015-01-01

This chapter describes methods developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to implement a transdisciplinary, systems-based approach for regional-scale (local to national) integrated assessment of agricultural systems under future climate, biophysical, and socio-economic conditions. These methods were used by the AgMIP regional research teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to implement the analyses reported in their respective chapters of this book. Additional technical details are provided in Appendix 1.The principal goal that motivates AgMIP's regional integrated assessment (RIA) methodology is to provide scientifically rigorous information needed to support improved decision-making by various stakeholders, ranging from local to national and international non-governmental and governmental organizations.

Analysis of Radiant Cooling System Configurations Integrated with Cooling Tower for Different Indian Climatic Zones

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mathur, Jyotirmay; Bhandari, Mahabir S; Jain, Robin

Radiant cooling system has proven to be a low energy consumption system for building cooling needs. This study describes the use of cooling tower in radiant cooling system to improve the overall system efficiency. A comprehensive simulation feasibility study of the application of cooling tower in radiant cooling system was performed for the fifteen cities in different climatic zones of India. It was found that in summer, the wet bulb temperature (WBT) of the different climatic zones except warm-humid is suitable for the integration of cooling tower with radiant cooling system. In these climates, cooling tower can provide on averagemore » 24 C to 27 C water In order to achieve the energy saving potential, three different configurations of radiant cooling system have been compared in terms of energy consumption. The different configurations of the radiant cooling system integrated with cooling tower are: (1) provide chilled water to the floor, wall and ceiling mounted tubular installation. (2) provide chilled water to the wall and ceiling mounted tabular installation. In this arrangement a separate chiller has also been used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor mounted tubular installation. (3) provide chilled water to the wall mounted tabular installation and a separate chiller is used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor and ceiling mounted tabular installation. A dedicated outdoor air system is also coupled for dehumidification and ventilation in all three configurations. A conventional all-air system was simulated as a baseline to compare these configurations for assessing the energy saving potential.« less

Assessing the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the river water quality in an integrated urban wastewater system in the UK.

PubMed

Astaraie-Imani, Maryam; Kapelan, Zoran; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David

2012-12-15

Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Air, Climate, and Energy Strategic Research Action Plan, 2016 – 2019

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

ACE research projects are organized into 5 topics: Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation; Emissions and Measurements; Atmospheric and Integrated Modeling Systems; Protecting Environmental Public Health; and Sustainable Energy and Mitigation

Implementation of malaria dynamic models in municipality level early warning systems in Colombia. Part I: description of study sites.

PubMed

Ruiz, Daniel; Cerón, Viviana; Molina, Adriana M; Quiñónes, Martha L; Jiménez, Mónica M; Ahumada, Martha; Gutiérrez, Patricia; Osorio, Salua; Mantilla, Gilma; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

2014-07-01

As part of the Integrated National Adaptation Pilot project and the Integrated Surveillance and Control System, the Colombian National Institute of Health is working on the design and implementation of a Malaria Early Warning System framework, supported by seasonal climate forecasting capabilities, weather and environmental monitoring, and malaria statistical and dynamic models. In this report, we provide an overview of the local ecoepidemiologic settings where four malaria process-based mathematical models are currently being implemented at a municipal level. The description includes general characteristics, malaria situation (predominant type of infection, malaria-positive cases data, malaria incidence, and seasonality), entomologic conditions (primary and secondary vectors, mosquito densities, and feeding frequencies), climatic conditions (climatology and long-term trends), key drivers of epidemic outbreaks, and non-climatic factors (populations at risk, control campaigns, and socioeconomic conditions). Selected pilot sites exhibit different ecoepidemiologic settings that must be taken into account in the development of the integrated surveillance and control system. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Insights from Modeling the Integrated Climate, Biogeochemical Cycles, Human Activities and Their Interactions in the ACME Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Thornton, P. E.; Riley, W. J.; Calvin, K. V.

2017-12-01

Towards the goal of understanding the contributions from natural and managed systems to current and future greenhouse gas fluxes and carbon-climate and carbon-CO2 feedbacks, efforts have been underway to improve representations of the terrestrial, river, and human components of the ACME earth system model. Broadly, our efforts include implementation and comparison of approaches to represent the nutrient cycles and nutrient limitations on ecosystem production, extending the river transport model to represent sediment and riverine biogeochemistry, and coupling of human systems such as irrigation, reservoir operations, and energy and land use with the ACME land and river components. Numerical experiments have been designed to understand how terrestrial carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles regulate climate system feedbacks and the sensitivity of the feedbacks to different model treatments, examine key processes governing sediment and biogeochemistry in the rivers and their role in the carbon cycle, and exploring the impacts of human systems in perturbing the hydrological and carbon cycles and their interactions. This presentation will briefly introduce the ACME modeling approaches and discuss preliminary results and insights from numerical experiments that lay the foundation for improving understanding of the integrated climate-biogeochemistry-human system.

Linking Climate Change Education through the Integration of a Kite-Borne Remote Sensing System: Linking Climate Change Education and Remote Sensing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xie, Yichun; Henry, Andy; Bydlowski, David; Musial, Joseph

2014-01-01

A majority of secondary science teachers are found to include the topic of climate change in their courses. However, teachers informally and sporadically discuss climate change and students rarely understand the underlying scientific concepts. The project team developed an innovative pedagogical approach, in which teachers and students learn…

Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuluri, F.

2013-12-01

The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view to highlighting the need for integrated research and education collaboration at national and global level.

Legacy data center integration into distributed data federations: The World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kindermann, Stephan; Berger, Katharina; Toussaint, Frank

2014-05-01

The integration of well-established legacy data centers into newly developed data federation infrastructures is a key requirement to enhance climate data access based on widely agreed interfaces. We present the approach taken to integrate the ICSU World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) located in Hamburg, Germany into the European ENES climate data Federation which is part of the international ESGF data federation. The ENES / ESGF data federation hosts petabytes of climate model data and provides scalable data search and access services across the worldwide distributed data centers. Parts of the data provided by the ENES / ESGF data federation is also long term archived and curated at the WDCC data archive, allowing e.g. for DOI based data citation. An integration of the WDCC into the ENES / ESGF federation allows end users to search and access WDCC data using consistent interfaces worldwide. We will summarize the integration approach we have taken for WDCC legacy system and ESGF infrastructure integration. On the technical side we describe the provisioning of ESGF consistent metadata and data interfaces as well as the security infrastructure adoption. On the non-technical side we describe our experiences in integrating a long-term archival center with costly quality assurance procedures with an integrated distributed data federation putting emphasis on providing early and consistent data search and access services to scientists. The experiences were gained in the process of curating ESGF hosted CMIP5 data at the WDCC. Approximately one petabyte of CMIP5 data which was used for the IPCC climate report is being replicated and archived at the WDCC.

The pilot climate data system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reph, M. G.; Treinish, L. A.; Smith, P. H.

1984-01-01

The Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) is an interactive scientific information management system for locating, obtaining, manipulating, and displaying climate-research data. The PCDS was developed to manage a large collection of data of interest to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) research community and currently provides such support for approximately twenty data sets. In order to provide the PCDS capabilities, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC) has integrated the capabilities of several general-purpose software packages with specialized software for reading and reformatting the supported data sets. These capabilities were integrated in a manner which allows the PCDS to be easily expanded, either to provide support for additional data sets or to provide additional functional capabilities. This also allows the PCDS to take advantage of new technology as it becomes available, since parts of the system can be replaced with more powerful components without significantly affecting the user interface.

Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean

2012-10-01

Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee

2010-02-01

Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.

Software Engineering Support of the Third Round of Scientific Grand Challenge Investigations: An Earth Modeling System Software Framework Strawman Design that Integrates Cactus and UCLA/UCB Distributed Data Broker

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Talbot, Bryan; Zhou, Shu-Jia; Higgins, Glenn

2002-01-01

One of the most significant challenges in large-scale climate modeling, as well as in high-performance computing in other scientific fields, is that of effectively integrating many software models from multiple contributors. A software framework facilitates the integration task. both in the development and runtime stages of the simulation. Effective software frameworks reduce the programming burden for the investigators, freeing them to focus more on the science and less on the parallel communication implementation, while maintaining high performance across numerous supercomputer and workstation architectures. This document proposes a strawman framework design for the climate community based on the integration of Cactus, from the relativistic physics community, and UCLA/UCB Distributed Data Broker (DDB) from the climate community. This design is the result of an extensive survey of climate models and frameworks in the climate community as well as frameworks from many other scientific communities. The design addresses fundamental development and runtime needs using Cactus, a framework with interfaces for FORTRAN and C-based languages, and high-performance model communication needs using DDB. This document also specifically explores object-oriented design issues in the context of climate modeling as well as climate modeling issues in terms of object-oriented design.

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agriculturalmore » Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.« less

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold; Boote, Kenneth J.; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Martre, Pierre; McDermid, Sonali P.; Müller, Christoph; Snyder, Abigail; Thorburn, Peter J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.

A New Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Jones, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.

2013-12-01

This presentation provides an overview of the new methods developed by researchers in the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for regional climate impact assessment and analysis of adaptation in agricultural systems. This approach represents a departure from approaches in the literature in several dimensions. First, the approach is based on the analysis of agricultural systems (not individual crops) and is inherently trans-disciplinary: it is based on a deep collaboration among a team of climate scientists, agricultural scientists and economists to design and implement regional integrated assessments of agricultural systems. Second, in contrast to previous approaches that have imposed future climate on models based on current socio-economic conditions, this approach combines bio-physical and economic models with a new type of pathway analysis (Representative Agricultural Pathways) to parameterize models consistent with a plausible future world in which climate change would be occurring. Third, adaptation packages for the agricultural systems in a region are designed by the research team with a level of detail that is useful to decision makers, such as research administrators and donors, who are making agricultural R&D investment decisions. The approach is illustrated with examples from AgMIP's projects currently being carried out in Africa and South Asia.

Challenges and Opportunities for Integrating Social Science Perspectives into Climate and Global Change Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larson, E. K.; Li, J.; Zycherman, A.

2017-12-01

Integration of social science into climate and global change assessments is fundamental for improving understanding of the drivers, impacts and vulnerability of climate change, and the social, cultural and behavioral challenges related to climate change responses. This requires disciplinary and interdisciplinary knowledge as well as integrational and translational tools for linking this knowledge with the natural and physical sciences. The USGCRP's Social Science Coordinating Committee (SSCC) is tasked with this challenge and is working to integrate relevant social, economic and behavioral knowledge into processes like sustained assessments. This presentation will discuss outcomes from a recent SSCC workshop, "Social Science Perspectives on Climate Change" and their applications to sustained assessments. The workshop brought academic social scientists from four disciplines - anthropology, sociology, geography and archaeology - together with federal scientists and program managers to discuss three major research areas relevant to the USGCRP and climate assessments: (1) innovative tools, methods, and analyses to clarify the interactions of human and natural systems under climate change, (2) understanding of factors contributing to differences in social vulnerability between and within communities under climate change, and (3) social science perspectives on drivers of global climate change. These disciplines, collectively, emphasize the need to consider socio-cultural, political, economic, geographic, and historic factors, and their dynamic interactions, to understand climate change drivers, social vulnerability, and mitigation and adaptation responses. They also highlight the importance of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to explain impacts, vulnerability, and responses at different time and spatial scales. This presentation will focus on major contributions of the social sciences to climate and global change research. We will discuss future directions for sustained assessments that integrate and reflect the social science understanding of the complex relationships between social and natural worlds in a changing climate, and factors that impact effective mitigation and adaptation strategies that address risks and vulnerabilities of climate change.

Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

DOE PAGES

Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; ...

2012-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kihara, Job; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Bationo, Andre; Koala, Saidou; Hickman, Jonathon; Koo, Jawoo; Vanya, Charles; Adiku, Samuel; Beletse, Yacob; Masikate, Patricia;

75 FR 37405 - Notice of Public Review and Comment Period on NOAA's Next Generation Strategic Plan (NGSP)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-29

... Federal role in responding to the Nation's most urgent challenges, ranging from climate change, severe... changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts, share knowledge and information with others, and conserve... changing climate system and its impacts. Objective: Integrated assessments of current and future states of...

A Life Cycle Assessment of integrated dairy farm-greenhouse systems in British Columbia.

PubMed

Zhang, Siduo; Bi, Xiaotao Tony; Clift, Roland

2013-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the anticipated environmental benefits from integrating a dairy farm and a greenhouse; the integration is based on anaerobic digestion of manures to produce biogas energy, biogenic CO2, and digested slurry. A full Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been conducted on six modeled cases applicable in British Columbia, to evaluate non-renewable energy consumption, climate change, acidification, eutrophication, respiratory effects and human toxicity. Compared to conventional practice, an integrated system has the potential to nearly halve eutrophication and respiratory effects caused by inorganic emissions and to reduce non-renewable energy consumption, climate change, and acidification by 65-90%, while respiratory effects caused by organic emissions become negative as co-products substitute for other materials. Co-digestion of other livestock manures, greenhouse plant waste, or food and food processing waste with dairy manure can further improve the performance of the integrated system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving Decision-Making Activities for Meningitis and Malaria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ceccato, Pietro; Trzaska, Sylwia; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; Kalashnikova, Olga; del Corral, John; Cousin, Remi; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Bell, Michael; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.

2013-01-01

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular meningitis and malaria. In this paper, we present the new and improved products that have been developed for: (i) estimating dust aerosol for forecasting risks of meningitis and (ii) for monitoring temperature and rainfall and integrating them into a vectorial capacity model for forecasting risks of malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map Room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF A NOVEL ARCHITECTURE FOR AN INTEGRATED SOLAR THERMAL-BIOGAS CO-GENERATION SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

The immediate goal is a system based on the integration of the suite of modules developed solar thermal, biogas, ORC, absorption-chiller) that can be assembled together to create systems tailored to the unique demands of individual communities and climates, optimized for effic...

[Confronting the Health-Related Challenges of Climate Change: Nursing Education for the Future].

PubMed

Wu, Pei-Chih; Lee, Chi-Chen

2016-08-01

Climate change is the greatest threat to public health in the 21st century. The increasing health impact of heat waves, the increasing magnitudes and spatial expansions of vector and water-borne diseases epidemics, and the increasing medical burdens of biological allergic illnesses, worsening local air pollution, and other related issues are expected to continue to increase in severity in the near future. All of these issues are global problems that must be faced. Adaptation strategies and action plans related to climate change are needed and emerging. Moreover, integrating the basic concepts, scientific evidences, and new technology into public and professional education systems is already recognized as a priority in the national adaptation program. Nurses stand on the frontlines of medical care and health communication. The integration of climate change and adaptation to climate change into nursing education and training is become increasingly important. This article reviews both the expected health impacts of climate change and the mitigation and adaptation strategies that have been proposed / adopted by medical care facilities around the world. Further, we outline the current, priority needs for action in medical care facilities in Taiwan in order to mitigate and adapt to climate-change-related healthcare issues. Additionally, we present an integrated strategic plan for educating healthcare professionals, including nurse, in the future. We hope that the ideas that are presented in this paper encourage multidisciplinary cooperation and help bridge the gap between technology development and practical application in Taiwan's medical care system.

Integrating net-zero energy and high-performance green building technologies into contemporary housing in a cold climate

Treesearch

Martin Yoklic; Mark Knaebe; Karen Martinson

2010-01-01

The objectives of this research project are (1) to show how the sustainable resources of forest biomass, solar energy, harvested rainwater, and small-diameter logs can be integrated to a system that provides most or all of the energy and water needs of a typical cold climate residential household, and (2) to effectively interpret the results and convey the sustainable...

The future of global water stress: An integrated assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. Adam; Strzepek, Kenneth; Gao, Xiang; Fant, Charles; Blanc, Élodie; Paltsev, Sergey; Jacoby, Henry; Reilly, John; Gueneau, Arthur

2014-08-01

We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 assessment subregions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a water resource system (WRS) component embedded within the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydroclimate changes out to 2050. For many developing nations, water demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living under at least moderate water stress, with 80% of these located in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress. The strongest climate impacts on water stress are observed in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia, and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0-1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living with overly exploited water conditions—where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface water supply. This would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface water shortfalls and include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional interbasin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.

Integrating research tools to support the management of social-ecological systems under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

Developing resource management strategies in the face of climate change is complicated by the considerable uncertainty associated with projections of climate and its impacts and by the complex interactions between social and ecological variables. The broad, interconnected nature of this challenge has resulted in calls for analytical frameworks that integrate research tools and can support natural resource management decision making in the face of uncertainty and complex interactions. We respond to this call by first reviewing three methods that have proven useful for climate change research, but whose application and development have been largely isolated: species distribution modeling, scenario planning, and simulation modeling. Species distribution models provide data-driven estimates of the future distributions of species of interest, but they face several limitations and their output alone is not sufficient to guide complex decisions for how best to manage resources given social and economic considerations along with dynamic and uncertain future conditions. Researchers and managers are increasingly exploring potential futures of social-ecological systems through scenario planning, but this process often lacks quantitative response modeling and validation procedures. Simulation models are well placed to provide added rigor to scenario planning because of their ability to reproduce complex system dynamics, but the scenarios and management options explored in simulations are often not developed by stakeholders, and there is not a clear consensus on how to include climate model outputs. We see these strengths and weaknesses as complementarities and offer an analytical framework for integrating these three tools. We then describe the ways in which this framework can help shift climate change research from useful to usable.

Applications of geographic information systems (GIS) for transportation and climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-31

This report describes the current practice and application of GIS technologies for integrating climate change into the transportation decision-making process. It examines how select state, regional, and local agencies are using GIS to analyze, mitiga...

NASA and the U.S. climate program - A problem in data management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quann, J. J.

1978-01-01

NASA's contribution to the total data base for the National Climate Plan will be to produce climate data sets from its experimental space observing systems and to maximize the value of these data for climate analysis and prediction. Validated data sets will be provided to NOAA for inclusion into their overall diagnostic data base. NASA data management for the Climate Plan will involve: (1) cataloging and retrieval of large integrated and distributed data sets upon user demand, and (2) the storage equivalent of 100,000 digital data tapes. It will be the largest, most complex data system ever developed by NASA

Ecosystem informaties for natural history data - Developing an integrated framework for biological and geographic data

EPA Science Inventory

Threats to the ecological integrity of marine and estuarine systems operate over many spatial scales, from nutrient enrichment at watershed/estuarine linkages to invasive species and climate change at regional/global scales. Decision support tools and information systems needed t...

Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffith, Brad; Scott, J. Michael; Adamcik, Robert S.; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua J.; McGuire, A. David; Pidgorna, Anna

2009-01-01

Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0

DOE PAGES

Hartin, Corinne A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Schwarber, Adria; ...

2015-04-01

Simple climate models play an integral role in the policy and scientific communities. They are used for climate mitigation scenarios within integrated assessment models, complex climate model emulation, and uncertainty analyses. Here we describe Hector v1.0, an open source, object-oriented, simple global climate carbon-cycle model. This model runs essentially instantaneously while still representing the most critical global-scale earth system processes. Hector has a three-part main carbon cycle: a one-pool atmosphere, land, and ocean. The model's terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production and respiration fluxes, accommodating arbitrary geographic divisions into, e.g., ecological biomes or political units. Hector actively solves the inorganicmore » carbon system in the surface ocean, directly calculating air–sea fluxes of carbon and ocean pH. Hector reproduces the global historical trends of atmospheric [CO 2], radiative forcing, and surface temperatures. The model simulates all four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with equivalent rates of change of key variables over time compared to current observations, MAGICC (a well-known simple climate model), and models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Hector's flexibility, open-source nature, and modular design will facilitate a broad range of research in various areas.« less

The aerosol-monsoon climate system of Asia: A new paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, William K. M.

2016-02-01

This commentary is based on a series of recent lectures on aerosol-monsoon interactions I gave at the Beijing Normal University in August 2015. A main theme of the lectures is on a new paradigm of "An Aerosol-Monsoon-Climate-System", which posits that aerosol, like rainfall, cloud, and wind, is an integral component of the monsoon climate system, influencing monsoon weather and climate on all timescales. Here, salient issues discussed in my lectures and my personal perspective regarding interactions between atmospheric dynamics and aerosols from both natural and anthropogenic sources are summarized. My hope is that under this new paradigm, we can break down traditional disciplinary barriers, advance a deeper understanding of weather and climate in monsoon regions, as well as entrain a new generation of geoscientists to strive for a sustainable future for one of the most complex and challenging human-natural climate sub-system of the earth.

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE PAGES

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles; ...

2017-06-27

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Is current irrigation sustainable in the United States? An integrated assessment of climate change impact on water resources and irrigated crop yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blanc, Elodie; Caron, Justin; Fant, Charles

While climate change impacts on crop yields has been extensively studied, estimating the impact of water shortages on irrigated crop yields is challenging because the water resources management system is complex. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling framework, an integrated assessment model linking a global economic model to an Earth system model. We assess the effects of climate and socioeconomic changes on water availability for irrigation in the U.S. as well as subsequent impacts on crop yields by 2050, while accounting for climatemore » change projection uncertainty. We find that climate and socioeconomic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated yields for specific crops (i.e., cotton and forage), or in specific regions (i.e., the Southwest) where irrigation is not sustainable. Crop modeling studies that do not represent changes in irrigation availability can thus be misleading. Yet, since the most water-stressed basins represent a relatively small share of U.S. irrigated areas, the overall reduction in U.S. crop yields is small. The response of crop yields to climate change and water stress also suggests that some level of adaptation will be feasible, like relocating croplands to regions with sustainable irrigation or switching to less irrigation intensive crops. Finally, additional simulations show that greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation can alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields, enough to offset the reduced CO 2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.« less

Building Systems from Scratch: An Exploratory Study of Students Learning about Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puttick, Gillian; Tucker-Raymond, Eli

2018-01-01

Science and computational practices such as modeling and abstraction are critical to understanding the complex systems that are integral to climate science. Given the demonstrated affordances of game design in supporting such practices, we implemented a free 4-day intensive workshop for middle school girls that focused on using the visual…

Resilience of Athabascan subsistence systems to interior Alaska's changing climate

Treesearch

Gary P. Kofinas; F. Stuart Chapin; Shauna BurnSilver; Jennifer I. Schmidt; Nancy L. Fresco; Knut Kielland; Stephanie Martin; Anna Springsteen; T. Scott Rupp

2010-01-01

Subsistence harvesting and wild food production by Athabascan peoples is part of an integrated social-ecological system of interior Alaska. We describe effects of recent trends and future climate change projections on the boreal ecosystem of interior Alaska and relate changes in ecosystem services to Athabascan subsistence. We focus primarily on moose, a keystone...

Assessment of Projected Temperature Impacts from Climate Change on the U.S. Electric Power Sector Using the Integrated Planning Model

EPA Science Inventory

The energy sector is considered to be one of the most vulnerable to climate change. This study is a first-order analysis of the potential climate change impacts on the U.S. electric power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes du...

An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change on Timber Markets of the Southern United States

Treesearch

Joseph E. de Steiguer; Steven G. McNulty

1998-01-01

There is growing public concern that continued emissions of greenhouse gases could cause the global climate to change (Gore, 1992). Altered global climate could, in turn, have impacts on the earth's natural systems and, ultimately, on human welfare (Office of Technology Assessment, 1991). Economic assessments of these potential welfare impacts are useful to...

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Treesearch

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

ClimateSpark: An in-memory distributed computing framework for big climate data analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Fei; Yang, Chaowei; Schnase, John L.; Duffy, Daniel Q.; Xu, Mengchao; Bowen, Michael K.; Lee, Tsengdar; Song, Weiwei

2018-06-01

The unprecedented growth of climate data creates new opportunities for climate studies, and yet big climate data pose a grand challenge to climatologists to efficiently manage and analyze big data. The complexity of climate data content and analytical algorithms increases the difficulty of implementing algorithms on high performance computing systems. This paper proposes an in-memory, distributed computing framework, ClimateSpark, to facilitate complex big data analytics and time-consuming computational tasks. Chunking data structure improves parallel I/O efficiency, while a spatiotemporal index is built for the chunks to avoid unnecessary data reading and preprocessing. An integrated, multi-dimensional, array-based data model (ClimateRDD) and ETL operations are developed to address big climate data variety by integrating the processing components of the climate data lifecycle. ClimateSpark utilizes Spark SQL and Apache Zeppelin to develop a web portal to facilitate the interaction among climatologists, climate data, analytic operations and computing resources (e.g., using SQL query and Scala/Python notebook). Experimental results show that ClimateSpark conducts different spatiotemporal data queries/analytics with high efficiency and data locality. ClimateSpark is easily adaptable to other big multiple-dimensional, array-based datasets in various geoscience domains.

Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

2016-09-28

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.« less

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.« less

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-09-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017-2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018-2020 period.

Integrated web system of geospatial data services for climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander

2016-04-01

Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used for modeling, interpretation and forecasting of climatic and ecosystem changes on different spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size (up to tens terabytes for a single dataset) a special software supporting studies in the climate and environmental change areas is required. An approach for integrated analysis of georefernced climatological data sets based on combination of web and GIS technologies in the framework of spatial data infrastructure paradigm is presented. According to this approach a dedicated data-processing web system for integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced climatological and meteorological data is being developed. It is based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. This work is supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Agreement #14.613.21.0037.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE PAGES

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.; ...

2017-10-30

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Newmark, Robin; Fekete, Balazs

2017-11-01

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptation strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. Climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.

Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miara, Ariel; Macknick, Jordan E.; Vorosmarty, Charles J.

Power plants that require cooling currently (2015) provide 85% of electricity generation in the United States. These facilities need large volumes of water and sufficiently cool temperatures for optimal operations, and projected climate conditions may lower their potential power output and affect reliability. We evaluate the performance of 1,080 thermoelectric plants across the contiguous US under future climates (2035-2064) and their collective performance at 19 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sub-regions. Joint consideration of engineering interactions with climate, hydrology and environmental regulations reveals the region-specific performance of energy systems and the need for regional energy security and climate-water adaptationmore » strategies. Despite climate-water constraints on individual plants, the current power supply infrastructure shows potential for adaptation to future climates by capitalizing on the size of regional power systems, grid configuration and improvements in thermal efficiencies. Without placing climate-water impacts on individual plants in a broader power systems context, vulnerability assessments that aim to support adaptation and resilience strategies misgauge the extent to which regional energy systems are vulnerable. As a result, climate-water impacts can lower thermoelectric reserve margins, a measure of systems-level reliability, highlighting the need to integrate climate-water constraints on thermoelectric power supply into energy planning, risk assessments, and system reliability management.« less

Hydromentor: An integrated water resources monitoring and management system at modified semi-arid watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiliades, Lampros; Sidiropoulos, Pantelis; Tzabiras, John; Kokkinos, Konstantinos; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Papaioannou, George; Fafoutis, Chrysostomos; Michailidou, Kalliopi; Tziatzios, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

2015-04-01

Natural and engineered water systems interact throughout watersheds and while there is clearly a link between watershed activities and the quantity and quality of water entering the engineered environment, these systems are considered distinct operational systems. As a result, the strategic approach to data management and modeling within the two systems is very different, leading to significant difficulties in integrating the two systems in order to make comprehensive watershed decisions. In this paper, we describe the "HYDROMENTOR" research project, a highly-structured data storage and exchange system that integrates multiple tools and models describing both natural and modified environments, to provide an integrated tool for management of water resources. Our underlying objective in presenting our conceptual design for this water information system is to develop an integrated and automated system that will achieve monitoring and management of the water quantity and quality at watershed level for both surface water (rivers and lakes) and ground water resources (aquifers). The uniqueness of the system is the integrated treatment of the water resources management issue in terms of water quantity and quality in current climate conditions and in future conditions of climatic change. On an operational level, the system provides automated warnings when the availability, use and pollution levels exceed allowable limits pre-set by the management authorities. Decision making with respect to the apportionment of water use by surface and ground water resources are aided through this system, while the relationship between the polluting activity of a source to total incoming pollution by sources are determined; this way, the best management practices for dealing with a crisis are proposed. The computational system allows the development and application of actions, interventions and policies (alternative management scenarios) so that the impacts of climate change in quantity, quality and use of water resources could be evaluated and managed. Acknowledgements: This study has been supported by the research project "Hydromentor" funded by the Greek General Secretariat of Research and Technology in the framework of the E.U. co-funded National Action "Cooperation".

Evaluation of additional biogeochemical impacts on mitigation pathways in an energy sytem integrated assessment model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, O.

2017-12-01

Within the last IPCC AR5 a large and systematic sensitivity study around available technologies and timing of policies applied in IAMs to achieve the 2°C target has been conducted. However the simple climate representations included in IAMs are generally tuned to the results of ensemble means. This may result in hiding within the ensemble mean results possible challenging mitigation pathways for the economy or the technology future scenarios. This work provides new insights on the sensitivity of the socio-economic response to different climate factors under a 2°C climate change target in order to help guide future efforts to reduce uncertainty in the climate mitigation decisions. The main objective is to understand and bring new insights on how future global warming will affect the natural biochemical feedbacks on the climate system and what could be the consequences of these feedbacks on the anthropogenic emission pathways with a specific focus on the energy-economy system. It specifically focuses on three issues of the climate representation affecting the energy system transformation and GHG emissions pathways: 1- Impacts of the climate sensitivity (or TCR); 2- Impacts of warming on the radiative forcing (cloudiness,...); 3- Impacts of warming on the carbon cycle (carbon cycle feedback). We use the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL to examine the mitigation pathways compatible with the 2C target depending on assumptions regarding the 3 issues of the climate representation introduced above. The following key conclusions drawn from this study are that mitigation to 2°C is still possible under strong climate sensitivity (TCR), strong carbon cycle amplification or positive radiative forcing feedback. However, this level of climate mitigation will require a significant transformation in the way we produce and consume energy. Carbon capture and sequestration on electricity generation, industry and biomass is part of the technology pool needed to achieve this level of decarbonisation. In extreme condition (positive correlation between the 3 issues discussed) the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL creates pathways requiring additional negative emission technologies at the end of this century to keep temperature change well below 2°C.

Sustained Satellite Missions for Climate Data Records

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halpern, David

2012-01-01

Satellite CDRs possess the accuracy, longevity, and stability for sustained moni toring of critical variables to enhance understanding of the global integrated Earth system and predict future conditions. center dot Satellite CDRs are a critical element of a global climate observing system. center dot Satellite CDRs are a difficult challenge and require high - level managerial commitment, extensive intellectual capital, and adequate funding.

Educational process in modern climatology within the web-GIS platform "Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Gorbatenko, Valentina; Gordov, Evgeny; Martynova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

2013-04-01

These days, common to all scientific fields the problem of training of scientists in the environmental sciences is exacerbated by the need to develop new computational and information technology skills in distributed multi-disciplinary teams. To address this and other pressing problems of Earth system sciences, software infrastructure for information support of integrated research in the geosciences was created based on modern information and computational technologies and a software and hardware platform "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) was developed. In addition to the direct analysis of geophysical data archives, the platform is aimed at teaching the basics of the study of changes in regional climate. The educational component of the platform includes a series of lectures on climate, environmental and meteorological modeling and laboratory work cycles on the basics of analysis of current and potential future regional climate change using Siberia territory as an example. The educational process within the Platform is implemented using the distance learning system Moodle (www.moodle.org). This work is partially supported by the Ministry of education and science of the Russian Federation (contract #8345), SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant #11-05-01190a, and integrated project SB RAS #131.

Full Life Cycle of Data Analysis with Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.; Zhai, C.; Pan, L.; Tang, B.; Zhang, J.; Bao, Q.; Malarout, N.

2017-12-01

We have developed a system that supports the full life cycle of a data analysis process, from data discovery, to data customization, to analysis, to reanalysis, to publication, and to reproduction. The system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA) is designed to demonstrate that the full life cycle of data analysis can be supported within one integrated system for climate model diagnostic evaluation with global observational and reanalysis datasets. CMDA has four subsystems that are highly integrated to support the analysis life cycle. Data System manages datasets used by CMDA analysis tools, Analysis System manages CMDA analysis tools which are all web services, Provenance System manages the meta data of CMDA datasets and the provenance of CMDA analysis history, and Recommendation System extracts knowledge from CMDA usage history and recommends datasets/analysis tools to users. These four subsystems are not only highly integrated but also easily expandable. New datasets can be easily added to Data System and scanned to be visible to the other subsystems. New analysis tools can be easily registered to be available in the Analysis System and Provenance System. With CMDA, a user can start a data analysis process by discovering datasets of relevance to their research topic using the Recommendation System. Next, the user can customize the discovered datasets for their scientific use (e.g. anomaly calculation, regridding, etc) with tools in the Analysis System. Next, the user can do their analysis with the tools (e.g. conditional sampling, time averaging, spatial averaging) in the Analysis System. Next, the user can reanalyze the datasets based on the previously stored analysis provenance in the Provenance System. Further, they can publish their analysis process and result to the Provenance System to share with other users. Finally, any user can reproduce the published analysis process and results. By supporting the full life cycle of climate data analysis, CMDA improves the research productivity and collaboration level of its user.

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

NASA climate data catalog

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reph, M. G.

1984-01-01

This document provides a summary of information available in the NASA Climate Data Catalog. The catalog provides scientific users with technical information about selected climate parameter data sets and the associated sensor measurements from which they are derived. It is an integral part of the Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS), an interactive, scientific management system for locating, obtaining, manipulating, and displaying climate research data. The catalog is maintained in a machine readable representation which can easily be accessed via the PCDS. The purposes, format and content of the catalog are discussed. Summarized information is provided about each of the data sets currently described in the catalog. Sample detailed descriptions are included for individual data sets or families of related data sets.

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity

PubMed Central

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-01-01

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors’ experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public health There is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change. PMID:27190980

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.

PubMed

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-04-26

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change.

Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

2014-12-01

China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national agriculture adaptation strategy decisions.

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other Arctic regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinzman, L.D.; Bettez, N.D.; Bolton, W.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Dyurgerov, M.B.; Fastie, C.L.; Griffith, B.; Hollister, R.D.; Hope, Allen; Huntington, H.P.; Jensen, A.M.; Jia, G.J.; Jorgenson, T.; Kane, D.L.; Klein, D.R.; Kofinas, G.; Lynch, A.H.; Lloyd, A.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Nelson, Frederick E.; Oechel, W.C.; Osterkamp, T.E.; Racine, C.H.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Stone, R.S.; Stow, D.A.; Sturm, M.; Tweedie, C.E.; Vourlitis, G.L.; Walker, M.D.; Walker, D.A.; Webber, P.J.; Welker, J.M.; Winker, K.S.; Yoshikawa, K.

2005-01-01

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling. ?? Springer 2005.

Exploratory Climate Data Visualization and Analysis Using DV3D and UVCDAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maxwell, Thomas

2012-01-01

Earth system scientists are being inundated by an explosion of data generated by ever-increasing resolution in both global models and remote sensors. Advanced tools for accessing, analyzing, and visualizing very large and complex climate data are required to maintain rapid progress in Earth system research. To meet this need, NASA, in collaboration with the Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UVCOAT) consortium, is developing exploratory climate data analysis and visualization tools which provide data analysis capabilities for the Earth System Grid (ESG). This paper describes DV3D, a UV-COAT package that enables exploratory analysis of climate simulation and observation datasets. OV3D provides user-friendly interfaces for visualization and analysis of climate data at a level appropriate for scientists. It features workflow inte rfaces, interactive 40 data exploration, hyperwall and stereo visualization, automated provenance generation, and parallel task execution. DV30's integration with CDAT's climate data management system (COMS) and other climate data analysis tools provides a wide range of high performance climate data analysis operations. DV3D expands the scientists' toolbox by incorporating a suite of rich new exploratory visualization and analysis methods for addressing the complexity of climate datasets.

Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

2016-12-01

Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

Reassessing emotion in climate change communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Daniel A.; Lickel, Brian; Markowitz, Ezra M.

2017-12-01

Debate over effective climate change communication must be grounded in rigorous affective science. Rather than treating emotions as simple levers to be pulled to promote desired outcomes, emotions should be viewed as one integral component of a cognitive feedback system guiding responses to challenging decision-making problems.

Investigating the Nexus of Climate, Energy, Water, and Land at Decision-Relevant Scales: The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kraucunas, Ian P.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dirks, James A.

2015-04-01

The Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA) is an innovative modeling system developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to simulate interactions among natural and human systems at scales relevant to regional decision making. PRIMA brings together state-of-the-art models of regional climate, hydrology, agriculture, socioeconomics, and energy systems using a flexible coupling approach. The platform can be customized to inform a variety of complex questions and decisions, such as the integrated evaluation of mitigation and adaptation options across a range of sectors. Research into stakeholder decision support needs underpins the platform's application to regional issues, including uncertainty characterization.more » Ongoing numerical experiments are yielding new insights into the interactions among human and natural systems on regional scales with an initial focus on the energy-land-water nexus in the upper U.S. Midwest. This paper focuses on PRIMA’s functional capabilities and describes some lessons learned to date about integrated regional modeling.« less

Land Use, climate change and BIOdiversity in cultural landscapes (LUBIO): Assessing feedbacks and promoting land-use strategies towards a viable future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander

2016-04-01

Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series of transdisciplinary participatory modelling workshops, and a questionnaire-based survey targeted at regional farmers. Beside the integrated socioecological model a catalogue of recommended actions will be developed in order to distribute the insights of the research to the most relevant regional stakeholder groups.

Integrating a Detailed Agricultural Model in a Global Economic Framework: New methods for assessment of climate mitigation and adaptation opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Calvin, K.; Zhang, X.; Wise, M.; West, T. O.

2010-12-01

Climate change and food security are global issues increasingly linked through human decision making that takes place across all scales from on-farm management actions to international climate negotiations. Understanding how agricultural systems can respond to climate change, through mitigation or adaptation, while still supplying sufficient food to feed a growing global population, thus requires a multi-sector tool in a global economic framework. Integrated assessment models are one such tool, however they are typically driven by historical aggregate statistics of production in combination with exogenous assumptions of future trends in agricultural productivity; they are not yet capable of exploring agricultural management practices as climate adaptation or mitigation strategies. Yet there are agricultural models capable of detailed biophysical modeling of farm management and climate impacts on crop yield, soil erosion and C and greenhouse gas emissions, although these are typically applied at point scales that are incompatible with coarse resolution integrated assessment modeling. To combine the relative strengths of these modeling systems, we are using the agricultural model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), applied in a geographic data framework for regional analyses, to provide input to the global economic model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). The initial phase of our approach focuses on a pilot region of the Midwest United States, a highly productive agricultural area. We apply EPIC, a point based biophysical process model, at 60 m spatial resolution within this domain and aggregate the results to GCAM agriculture and land use subregions for the United States. GCAM is then initialized with multiple management options for key food and bioenergy crops. Using EPIC to distinguish these management options based on grain yield, residue yield, soil C change and cost differences, GCAM then simulates the optimum distribution of the available management options to meet demands for food and energy over the next century. The coupled models provide a new platform for evaluating future changes in agricultural management based on food demand, bioenergy demand, and changes in crop yield and soil C under a changing climate. This framework can be applied to evaluate the economically and biophysically optimal distribution of management under future climates.

Mountain hydrology of the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bales, Roger C.; Molotch, Noah P.; Painter, Thomas H; Dettinger, Michael D.; Rice, Robert; Dozier, Jeff

2006-01-01

Climate change and climate variability, population growth, and land use change drive the need for new hydrologic knowledge and understanding. In the mountainous West and other similar areas worldwide, three pressing hydrologic needs stand out: first, to better understand the processes controlling the partitioning of energy and water fluxes within and out from these systems; second, to better understand feedbacks between hydrological fluxes and biogeochemical and ecological processes; and, third, to enhance our physical and empirical understanding with integrated measurement strategies and information systems. We envision an integrative approach to monitoring, modeling, and sensing the mountain environment that will improve understanding and prediction of hydrologic fluxes and processes. Here extensive monitoring of energy fluxes and hydrologic states are needed to supplement existing measurements, which are largely limited to streamflow and snow water equivalent. Ground‐based observing systems must be explicitly designed for integration with remotely sensed data and for scaling up to basins and whole ranges.

Insights on the energy-water nexus through modeling of the integrated water cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Voisin, N.; Leng, G.

2016-12-01

For sustainable energy planning, understanding the impacts of climate change, land use change, and water management is essential as they all exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production. An integrated water model representing river processes, irrigation water use and water management has been developed and coupled to a land surface model to investigate the energy-water nexus. Simulations driven by two climate change projections with the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on both floods and droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the climate mitigation (RCP 4.5) and business as usual (RCP 8.5) scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to energy production. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) to enable investigation of the energy-water nexus in the fully coupled Earth system.

Integrated modeling of land-use change: the role of coupling, interactions and feedbacks between the human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ejaz, Q.; Winchester, N.; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

2016-12-01

Land-use change integrates a large number of components of the human and Earth systems, including climate, energy, water, and land. These complex coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks take place on a variety of space and time scales, thus increasing the complexity of land-use change modeling frameworks. In this study, we aim to identify which coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks are important for modeling land-use change, both at the global and regional level. First, we review the existing land-use change modeling framework used to develop land-use change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In such framework, land-use change is simulated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and mainly influenced by economic, energy, demographic and policy drivers. IAMs focus on representing the demand for agriculture and forestry goods (crops for food and bioenergy, forest products for construction and bioenergy), the interactions with other sectors of the economy and trade between various regions of the world. Then, we investigate how important various coupling elements and feedbacks with the Earth system are for projections of land-use change at the global and regional level. We focus on the following: i) the climate impacts on land productivity and greenhouse gas emissions, which requires climate change information and coupling to a terrestrial ecosystem model/crop model; ii) the climate and economic impacts on irrigation availability, which requires coupling the LUC modeling framework to a water resources management model and disaggregating rainfed and irrigated croplands; iii) the feedback of land-use change on the global and regional climate system through land-use change emissions and changes in the surface albedo and hydrology, which requires coupling to an Earth system model. Finally, we conclude our study by highlighting the current lack of clarity in how various components of the human and Earth systems are coupled in IAMs , and the need for a lexicon that is agreed upon by the IAM community.

The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS) as a Learning System for Extreme Heat: Evolving Future Resilience from Present Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, H.; Trtanj, J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.

2016-12-01

There is presently no consensus indicator for the effect of extreme heat on human health. At the early warning timescale, a variety of approaches to setting temperature thresholds (minimum, maximum, time-lagged) or more complex approaches (Heat Index, Thermal Comfort, etc...) for issuing alerts and warnings have been recommended by literature and implemented, leading to much heterogeneity. At longer timescales, efforts have been made to quantify potential future health outcomes using climate projections, but nonstationarity of the climate system, economy, and demography may invalidate many of the assumptions which were necessarily made in these studies. Furthermore, in our pursuit of developing the best models and indicators to represent the impacts of climate extremes, perhaps we have not paid enough attention to what makes them policy-relevant, responsive to changing assumptions, and targeted at elements that can actually be predicted. In response to this concern, a comprehensive approach to improving the impactfulness of these indicators is underway as part of the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS), which was initiated by NOAA and CDC, but has grown to include many other federal agency and non-governmental partners. NIHHIS is a framework that integrates what we know about extreme heat and health outcomes within a learning system - simultaneously informing early warning and long-term risk reduction prior to, during, and while recovering from extreme heat events. NIHHIS develops impactful evolutionary responses to climate extremes. Through ongoing regional engagements, we are applying the lessons of impact modeling studies to create learning systems in the Southwest, Northeast, Midwest, and soon other regions of the U.S. This session will provide a view of this process as it has been carried out in the Southwest region - focused on the transboundary (US-Mexico) region around El Paso, Texas, and the NIHHIS approach to indicators overall.

Satellite Remote Sensing is Key to Water Cycle Integrator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koike, T.

2016-12-01

To promote effective multi-sectoral, interdisciplinary collaboration based on coordinated and integrated efforts, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) is now developing a "GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator (WCI)", which integrates "Earth observations", "modeling", "data and information", "management systems" and "education systems". GEOSS/WCI sets up "work benches" by which partners can share data, information and applications in an interoperable way, exchange knowledge and experiences, deepen mutual understanding and work together effectively to ultimately respond to issues of both mitigation and adaptation. (A work bench is a virtual geographical or phenomenological space where experts and managers collaborate to use information to address a problem within that space). GEOSS/WCI enhances the coordination of efforts to strengthen individual, institutional and infrastructure capacities, especially for effective interdisciplinary coordination and integration. GEOSS/WCI archives various satellite data to provide various hydrological information such as cloud, rainfall, soil moisture, or land-surface snow. These satellite products were validated using land observation in-situ data. Water cycle models can be developed by coupling in-situ and satellite data. River flows and other hydrological parameters can be simulated and validated by in-situ data. Model outputs from weather-prediction, seasonal-prediction, and climate-prediction models are archived. Some of these model outputs are archived on an online basis, but other models, e.g., climate-prediction models are archived on an offline basis. After models are evaluated and biases corrected, the outputs can be used as inputs into the hydrological models for predicting the hydrological parameters. Additionally, we have already developed a data-assimilation system by combining satellite data and the models. This system can improve our capability to predict hydrological phenomena. The WCI can provide better predictions of the hydrological parameters for integrated water resources management (IWRM) and also assess the impact of climate change and calculate adaptation needs.

Climate Observing Systems: Where are we and where do we need to be in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, B.; Diamond, H. J.

2017-12-01

Climate research and monitoring requires an observational strategy that blends long-term, carefully calibrated measurements as well as short-term, focused process studies. The operation and implementation of operational climate observing networks and the provision of related climate services, both have a significant role to play in assisting the development of national climate adaptation policies and in facilitating national economic development. Climate observing systems will require a strong research element for a long time to come. This requires improved observations of the state variables and the ability to set them in a coherent physical (as well as a chemical and biological) framework with models. Climate research and monitoring requires an integrated strategy of land/ocean/atmosphere observations, including both in situ and remote sensing platforms, and modeling and analysis. It is clear that we still need more research and analysis on climate processes, sampling strategies, and processing algorithms.

Integrating Scientific Content with Context to Connect Educators with the Complexities and Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, R.; Gosselin, D. C.; Oglesby, R. J.; Larson-Miller, C.; Thomas, J.; Mawalagedara, R.

2011-12-01

Over the past three years the Nebraska Earth Systems Education Network has designed professional development opportunities for K-12 and extension educators that integrates scientific content into the context of helping educators connect society with the complexities and consequences of climate change. Our professional development approach uses learner-, knowledge-, assessment-, and community-centered strategies to achieve our long-term goal: collaboration of scientists, educators and learners to foster civic literacy about climate change. Two NASA-funded projects, Global Climate Change Literacy for Educators (GCCE, 2009-2012), and the Educators Climatologists Learning Community (ECLC, 2011-2013), have provided the mechanism to provide teachers with scientifically sound and pedagogically relevant educational materials to improve climate and Earth systems literacy among educators. The primary product of the GCCE program is a 16-week, online, distance-delivered, asynchronous course entitled, Laboratory Earth: Human Dimensions of Climate Change. This course consists of four, four-week modules that integrate climate literacy, Earth Systems concepts, and pedagogy focused on active learning processes, building community, action research, and students' sense of place to promote action at the local level to address the challenges of climate change. Overall, the Community of Inquiry Survey (COI) indicated the course was effective in teaching content, developing a community of learners, and engaging students in experiences designed to develop content knowledge. A pre- and post- course Wilcoxan Signed Ranks Test indicated there was a statistically significant increase in participant's beliefs about their personal science teaching efficacy. Qualitative data from concept maps and content mastery assignments support a positive impact on teachers' content knowledge and classroom practice. Service Learning units seemed tohelp teachers connect course learning to their classroom teaching. In addition, qualitative data indicate that teachers' students found service learning to be highly motivational components to learning. The ECLC project, to be initiated in the fall 2011, will build on our GCCE experiences to create a sustainable virtual learning community of educators and scientists. Climate-change issues will serve as a context in which collaborative scientist-educator-teams will develop discrete, locally oriented research projects to facilitate development of confident, knowledgeable citizen-scientists within their classrooms.

The BGC Feedbacks Scientific Focus Area 2016 Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M.; Riley, William J.; Randerson, James T.

2016-06-01

The BGC Feedbacks Project will identify and quantify the feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system, and quantify and reduce the uncertainties in Earth System Models (ESMs) associated with those feedbacks. The BGC Feedbacks Project will contribute to the integration of the experimental and modeling science communities, providing researchers with new tools to compare measurements and models, thereby enabling DOE to contribute more effectively to future climate assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Sensitivity of an Integrated Mesoscale Atmosphere and Agriculture Land Modeling System (WRF/CMAQ-EPIC) to MODIS Vegetation and Lightning Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ran, L.; Cooter, E. J.; Gilliam, R. C.; Foroutan, H.; Kang, D.; Appel, W.; Wong, D. C.; Pleim, J. E.; Benson, V.; Pouliot, G.

2017-12-01

The combined meteorology and air quality modeling system composed of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is an important decision support tool that is used in research and regulatory decisions related to emissions, meteorology, climate, and chemical transport. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) is a cropping model which has long been used in a range of applications related to soil erosion, crop productivity, climate change, and water quality around the world. We have integrated WRF/CMAQ with EPIC using the Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) to estimate daily soil N information with fertilization for CMAQ bi-directional ammonia flux modeling. Driven by the weather and N deposition from WRF/CMAQ, FEST-C EPIC simulations are conducted on 22 different agricultural production systems ranging from managed grass lands (e.g. hay and alfalfa) to crop lands (e.g. corn grain and soybean) with rainfed and irrigated information across any defined conterminous United States (U.S.) CMAQ domain and grid resolution. In recent years, this integrated system has been enhanced and applied in many different air quality and ecosystem assessment projects related to land-water-atmosphere interactions. These enhancements have advanced this system to become a valuable tool for integrated assessments of air, land and water quality in light of social drivers and human and ecological outcomes. This presentation will focus on evaluating the sensitivity of precipitation and N deposition in the integrated system to MODIS vegetation input and lightning assimilation and their impacts on agricultural production and fertilization. We will describe the integrated modeling system and evaluate simulated precipitation and N deposition along with other weather information (e.g. temperature, humidity) for 2011 over the conterminous U.S. at 12 km grids from a coupled WRF/CMAQ with MODIS and lightning assimilation. Simulated agricultural production and fertilization from FEST-C EPIC driven by the changed meteorology and N deposition from MODIS and lightning assimilations will be evaluated and analyzed.

A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, R.T.; Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Faunt, C.C.; Cayan, D.; Schmid, W.

2012-01-01

Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater-surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supply-constrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

Regionally heterogeneous paleoenvironmental responses in the West African and South American monsoon systems on glacial to millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; van Mooy, B.; Overpeck, J. T.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S.; Peck, J. A.; Scholz, C. A.; King, J. W.

2008-12-01

Although millennial-scale paleoenvironmental changes have been well characterized for high latitude sites, short-term climate variability in the tropics is less well understood. While the Intertropical Convergence Zone may act as an integrator of tropical climate changes, regional factors also play an important role in controlling the tropical response to climate forcing. Understanding these influences, and how they modulate the response to global climate forcing under different mean climate states is thus important for assessing how the tropics may respond to future climate change. Here, we examine new centennial-resolution records of paleoenvironmental change from isotopic and relative abundance data from molecular biomarkers in sediment cores from Lake Bosumtwi and Lake Titicaca. We assess the relative response of the West African and South American monsoon systems to millennial and suborbital-scale climate variability over the last ca. 30,000 years. While there is evidence for synchronous climate variability in the two systems, the dominant paleoenvironmental changes appear largely decoupled, highlighting the importance of regional climatology in controlling the response to climate forcing in tropical regions.

Towards the Goal of Modular Climate Data Services: An Overview of NCPP Applications and Software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koziol, B. W.; Cinquini, L.; Treshansky, A.; Murphy, S.; DeLuca, C.

2013-12-01

In August 2013, the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform (NCPP) organized a workshop focusing on the quantitative evaluation of downscaled climate data products (QED-2013). The QED-2013 workshop focused on real-world application problems drawn from several sectors (e.g. hydrology, ecology, environmental health, agriculture), and required that downscaled downscaled data products be dynamically accessed, generated, manipulated, annotated, and evaluated. The cyberinfrastructure elements that were integrated to support the workshop included (1) a wiki-based project hosting environment (Earth System CoG) with an interface to data services provided by an Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data node; (2) metadata tools provided by the Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) collaboration; and (3) a Python-based library OpenClimateGIS (OCGIS) for subsetting and converting NetCDF-based climate data to GIS and tabular formats. Collectively, this toolset represents a first deployment of a 'ClimateTranslator' that enables users to access, interpret, and apply climate information at local and regional scales. This presentation will provide an overview of these components above, how they were used in the workshop, and discussion of current and potential integration. The long-term strategy for this software stack is to offer the suite of services described on a customizable, per-project basis. Additional detail on the three components is below. (1) Earth System CoG is a web-based collaboration environment that integrates data discovery and access services with tools for supporting governance and the organization of information. QED-2013 utilized these capabilities to share with workshop participants a suite of downscaled datasets, associated images derived from those datasets, and metadata files describing the downscaling techniques involved. The collaboration side of CoG was used for workshop organization, discussion, and results. (2) The ES-DOC Questionnaire, Viewer, and Comparator are web-based tools for the creation and use of model and experiment documentation. Workshop participants used the Questionnaire to generate metadata on regional downscaling models and statistical downscaling methods, and the Viewer to display the results. A prototype Comparator was available to compare properties across dynamically downscaled models. (3) OCGIS is a Python (v2.7) package designed for geospatial manipulation, subsetting, computation, and translation of Climate and Forecasting (CF)-compliant climate datasets - either stored in local NetCDF files, or files served through THREDDS data servers.

A Power Efficient Exaflop Computer Design for Global Cloud System Resolving Climate Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, M. F.; Oliker, L.; Shalf, J.

2008-12-01

Exascale computers would allow routine ensemble modeling of the global climate system at the cloud system resolving scale. Power and cost requirements of traditional architecture systems are likely to delay such capability for many years. We present an alternative route to the exascale using embedded processor technology to design a system optimized for ultra high resolution climate modeling. These power efficient processors, used in consumer electronic devices such as mobile phones, portable music players, cameras, etc., can be tailored to the specific needs of scientific computing. We project that a system capable of integrating a kilometer scale climate model a thousand times faster than real time could be designed and built in a five year time scale for US$75M with a power consumption of 3MW. This is cheaper, more power efficient and sooner than any other existing technology.

Water governance: learning by developing adaptive capacity to incorporate climate variability and change.

PubMed

Kashyap, A

2004-01-01

There is increasing evidence that global climate variability and change is affecting the quality and availability of water supplies. Integrated water resources development, use, and management strategies, represent an effective approach to achieve sustainable development of water resources in a changing environment with competing demands. It is also a key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that integrated water management strategies must incorporate the impacts of climate variability and change to reduce vulnerability of the poor, strengthen sustainable livelihoods and support national sustainable development. UNDP's strategy focuses on developing adaptation in the water governance sector as an entry point within the framework of poverty reduction and national sustainable development. This strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of governments and civil society organizations to have access to early warning systems, ability to assess the impact of climate variability and change on integrated water resources management, and developing adaptation intervention through hands-on learning by undertaking pilot activities.

Climate Change: Modeling the Human Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.

2012-12-01

Integrated assessment models have historically relied on forward modeling including, where possible, process-based representations to project climate change impacts. Some recent impact studies incorporate the effects of human responses to initial physical impacts, such as adaptation in agricultural systems, migration in response to drought, and climate-related changes in worker productivity. Sometimes the human response ameliorates the initial physical impacts, sometimes it aggravates it, and sometimes it displaces it onto others. In these arenas, understanding of underlying socioeconomic mechanisms is extremely limited. Consequently, for some sectors where sufficient data has accumulated, empirically based statistical models of human responses to past climate variability and change have been used to infer response sensitivities which may apply under certain conditions to future impacts, allowing a broad extension of integrated assessment into the realm of human adaptation. We discuss the insights gained from and limitations of such modeling for benefit-cost analysis of climate change.

Linking climate projections to performance: A yield-based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Marlow, David; Ekström, Marie; Rhodes, Bruce G.; Kularathna, Udaya; Jeffrey, Paul J.

2014-04-01

Despite a decade of research into climate change impacts on water resources, the scientific community has delivered relatively few practical methodological developments for integrating uncertainty into water resources system design. This paper presents an application of the "decision scaling" methodology for assessing climate change impacts on water resources system performance and asks how such an approach might inform planning decisions. The decision scaling method reverses the conventional ethos of climate impact assessment by first establishing the climate conditions that would compel planners to intervene. Climate model projections are introduced at the end of the process to characterize climate risk in such a way that avoids the process of propagating those projections through hydrological models. Here we simulated 1000 multisite synthetic monthly streamflow traces in a model of the Melbourne bulk supply system to test the sensitivity of system performance to variations in streamflow statistics. An empirical relation was derived to convert decision-critical flow statistics to climatic units, against which 138 alternative climate projections were plotted and compared. We defined the decision threshold in terms of a system yield metric constrained by multiple performance criteria. Our approach allows for fast and simple incorporation of demand forecast uncertainty and demonstrates the reach of the decision scaling method through successful execution in a large and complex water resources system. Scope for wider application in urban water resources planning is discussed.

Enhancing the usability of seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate information - an evidence-based framework for the identification and assessment of sector-specific vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, Daniel

2016-04-01

The successful provision of from seasonal to decadal (S2D) climate service products to sector-specific users is dependent on specific problem characteristics and individual user needs and decision-making processes. Climate information requires an impact on decision making to have any value (Rodwell and Doblas-Reyes, 2006). For that reason the knowledge of sector-specific vulnerabilities to S2D climate variability is very valuable information for both, climate service producers and users. In this context a concept for a vulnerability assessment framework was developed to (i) identify climate events (and especially their temporal scales) critical for sector-specific problems to assess the basic requirements for an appropriate climate-service product development; and to (ii) assess the potential impact or value of related climate information for decision-makers. The concept was developed within the EUPORIAS project (European Provision of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales) based on ten project-related case-studies from different sectors all over Europe. In the prevalent stage the framework may be useful as preliminary assessment or 'quick-scan' of the vulnerability of specific systems to climate variability in the context of S2D climate service provision. The assessment strategy of the framework is user-focused, using predominantly a bottom-up approach (vulnerability as state) but also a top-down approach (vulnerability as outcome) generally based on qualitative data (surveys, interviews, etc.) and literature research for system understanding. The starting point of analysis is a climate-sensitive 'critical situation' of the considered system which requires a decision and is defined by the user. From this basis the related 'critical climate conditions' are assessed and 'climate information needs' are derived. This mainly refers to the critical period of time of the climate event or sequence of events. The relevant period of time of problem-specific critical climate conditions may be assessed by the resilience of the system of concern, the response time of an interconnected system (i.e. top-down approach using a bottom-up methodology) or alternatively, by the critical time-frame of decision-making processes (bottom-up approach). This approach counters the challenges for a vulnerability assessment of economic sectors to S2D climate events which originate from the inherent role of climate for economic sectors: climate may affect economic sectors as hazard, resource, production- or regulation factor. This implies, that climate dependencies are often indirect and nonlinear. Consequently, climate events which are critical for affected systems do not necessarily correlate with common climatological extremes. One important output of the framework is a classification system of 'climate-impact types' which classifies sector-specific problems in a systemic way. This system proves to be promising because (i) it reflects and thus differentiates the cause for the climate relevance of a specific problem (compositions of buffer factors); (ii) it integrates decision-making processes which proved to be a significant factor; (iii) it indicates a potential usability of S2D climate service products and thus integrates coping options, and (vi) it is a systemic approach which goes beyond the established 'snap-shot' of vulnerability assessments.

Climate change impact assessments on the water resources of India under extensive human interventions.

PubMed

Madhusoodhanan, C G; Sreeja, K G; Eldho, T I

2016-10-01

Climate change is a major concern in the twenty-first century and its assessments are associated with multiple uncertainties, exacerbated and confounded in the regions where human interventions are prevalent. The present study explores the challenges for climate change impact assessment on the water resources of India, one of the world's largest human-modified systems. The extensive human interventions in the Energy-Land-Water-Climate (ELWC) nexus significantly impact the water resources of the country. The direct human interventions in the landscape may surpass/amplify/mask the impacts of climate change and in the process also affect climate change itself. Uncertainties in climate and resource assessments add to the challenge. Formulating coherent resource and climate change policies in India would therefore require an integrated approach that would assess the multiple interlinkages in the ELWC nexus and distinguish the impacts of global climate change from that of regional human interventions. Concerted research efforts are also needed to incorporate the prominent linkages in the ELWC nexus in climate/earth system modelling.

Multi-Objective Control Optimization for Greenhouse Environment Using Evolutionary Algorithms

PubMed Central

Hu, Haigen; Xu, Lihong; Wei, Ruihua; Zhu, Bingkun

2011-01-01

This paper investigates the issue of tuning the Proportional Integral and Derivative (PID) controller parameters for a greenhouse climate control system using an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) based on multiple performance measures such as good static-dynamic performance specifications and the smooth process of control. A model of nonlinear thermodynamic laws between numerous system variables affecting the greenhouse climate is formulated. The proposed tuning scheme is tested for greenhouse climate control by minimizing the integrated time square error (ITSE) and the control increment or rate in a simulation experiment. The results show that by tuning the gain parameters the controllers can achieve good control performance through step responses such as small overshoot, fast settling time, and less rise time and steady state error. Besides, it can be applied to tuning the system with different properties, such as strong interactions among variables, nonlinearities and conflicting performance criteria. The results implicate that it is a quite effective and promising tuning method using multi-objective optimization algorithms in the complex greenhouse production. PMID:22163927

High-resolution integration of water, energy, and climate models to assess electricity grid vulnerabilities to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, M.; Macknick, J.; Tidwell, V. C.; Zagona, E. A.; Magee, T. M.; Bennett, K.; Middleton, R. S.

2017-12-01

The U.S. electricity sector depends on large amounts of water for hydropower generation and cooling thermoelectric power plants. Variability in water quantity and temperature due to climate change could reduce the performance and reliability of individual power plants and of the electric grid as a system. While studies have modeled water usage in power systems planning, few have linked grid operations with physical water constraints or with climate-induced changes in water resources to capture the role of the energy-water nexus in power systems flexibility and adequacy. In addition, many hydrologic and hydropower models have a limited representation of power sector water demands and grid interaction opportunities of demand response and ancillary services. A multi-model framework was developed to integrate and harmonize electricity, water, and climate models, allowing for high-resolution simulation of the spatial, temporal, and physical dynamics of these interacting systems. The San Juan River basin in the Southwestern U.S., which contains thermoelectric power plants, hydropower facilities, and multiple non-energy water demands, was chosen as a case study. Downscaled data from three global climate models and predicted regional water demand changes were implemented in the simulations. The Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model was used to project inflows, ambient air temperature, and humidity in the San Juan River Basin. Resulting river operations, water deliveries, water shortage sharing agreements, new water demands, and hydroelectricity generation at the basin-scale were estimated with RiverWare. The impacts of water availability and temperature on electric grid dispatch, curtailment, cooling water usage, and electricity generation cost were modeled in PLEXOS. Lack of water availability resulting from climate, new water demands, and shortage sharing agreements will require thermoelectric generators to drastically decrease power production, as much as 50% during intensifying drought scenarios, which can have broader electricity sector system implications. Results relevant to stakeholder and power provider interests highlight the vulnerabilities in grid operations driven by water shortage agreements and changes in the climate.

Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Demand and Supply in the United States: A Multi-Model Comparison

EPA Science Inventory

This paper compares the climate change impacts on U.S. electricity demand and supply from three models: the Integrated Planning Model (IPM), the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, and GCAM. Rising temperatures cause an appreciable net increase in electricity demand....

An integrated approach to climate adaptation at the Chicago Transit Authority.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

CTA was selected as one of seven pilots funded by FTA to advance the state of practice for adapting transit systems to the impacts of : climate change. This effort is in keeping with broader long-term goals to address state-of-good-repair needs and t...

Working Group on Virtual Data Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2016-03-07

This report is the outcome of a workshop commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) to examine current and future data infrastructure requirements foundational for achieving CESD scientific mission goals in advancing a robust, predictive understanding of Earth’s climate and environmental systems.

A platform to integrate climate information and rural telemedicine in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, R.; Chadza, T.; Chirombo, J.; Fonda, C.; Muyepa, A.; Nkoloma, M.; Pietrosemoli, E.; Radicella, S. M.; Tompkins, A. M.; Zennaro, M.

2012-04-01

It is commonly accepted that climate plays a role in the transmission of many infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by mosquitoes such as malaria, which is one of the most important causes of mortality and morbidity in developing countries. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, lagged observed climate variables could provide some predictive lead for forecasting disease epidemics. This lead time could be extended by using forecasts of the climate in disease prediction models. This project aims to implement a platform for the dissemination of climate-driven disease risk forecasts, using a telemedicine approach. A pilot project has been established in Malawi, where a 162 km wireless link has been installed, spanning from Blantyre City to remote health facilities in the district of Mangochi in the Southern region, bordering Lake Malawi. This long Wi-Fi technology allows rural health facilities to upload real-time disease cases as they occur to an online health information system (DHIS2); a national medical database repository administered by the Ministry of Health. This technology provides a real-time data logging system for disease incidence monitoring and facilitates the flow of information between local and national levels. This platform allows statistical and dynamical disease prediction models to be rapidly updated with real-time climate and epidemiological information. This permits health authorities to target timely interventions ahead of an imminent increase in malaria incidence. By integrating meteorological and health information systems in a statistical-dynamical prediction model, we show that a long-distance Wi-Fi link is a practical and inexpensive means to enable the rapid analysis of real-time information in order to target disease prevention and control measures and mobilise resources at the local level.

Using Copernicus earth observation services to monitor climate change impacts and adaptations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Daniel; Zebisch, Marc; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Schönthaler, Konstanze; von Andrian-Werburg, Stefan

2016-04-01

In the last years, earth observation made a big leap towards an operational monitoring of the state of environment. Remote sensing provides for instance information on the dynamics, trends and anomalies of snow and glaciers, vegetation, soil moisture or water temperature. In particular, the European Copernicus initiative offers new opportunities through new satellites with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, operational services for environmental monitoring and an open data access policy. With the Copernicus climate change service and the ESA climate change initiative, specific earth observation programs are in place to address the impacts of climate change. However, such products and services are until now rarely picked up in the field of policy or decision making oriented climate impact or climate risk assessments. In this talk, we will present results of a study, which focus on the question, if and how remote sensing approaches could be integrated into operational monitoring activities of climate impacts and response measures on a national and subnational scale. We assessed all existing and planned Copernicus services regarding their relevance for climate impact monitoring by comparing them against the indication fields from an indicator system for climate impact and response monitoring in Germany, which has lately been developed in the framework of the German national adaptation strategy. For several climate impact or response indicators, an immediate integration of remote sensing data could be identified and been recommended. For these cases, we will show practical examples on the benefit of remote sensing data. For other indication fields, promising approaches were found, which need further development. We argue that remote sensing is a very valuable complement to the existing indicator schemes by contributing with spatial explicit, timely information but not always easy to integrate with classical approaches, which are oriented towards consistent long term monitoring. Furthermore, we provide specific recommendations for the Copernicus services to ensure a consistent climate change monitoring in future and we indicate options and limitations for integrating service products into practical assessment and monitoring activities.

Development and application of earth system models.

PubMed

Prinn, Ronald G

2013-02-26

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important "systems" problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether "climate engineering" is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better.

Distributed data discovery, access and visualization services to Improve Data Interoperability across different data holdings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palanisamy, G.; Krassovski, M.; Devarakonda, R.; Santhana Vannan, S.

2012-12-01

The current climate debate is highlighting the importance of free, open, and authoritative sources of high quality climate data that are available for peer review and for collaborative purposes. It is increasingly important to allow various organizations around the world to share climate data in an open manner, and to enable them to perform dynamic processing of climate data. This advanced access to data can be enabled via Web-based services, using common "community agreed" standards without having to change their internal structure used to describe the data. The modern scientific community has become diverse and increasingly complex in nature. To meet the demands of such diverse user community, the modern data supplier has to provide data and other related information through searchable, data and process oriented tool. This can be accomplished by setting up on-line, Web-based system with a relational database as a back end. The following common features of the web data access/search systems will be outlined in the proposed presentation: - A flexible data discovery - Data in commonly used format (e.g., CSV, NetCDF) - Preparing metadata in standard formats (FGDC, ISO19115, EML, DIF etc.) - Data subseting capabilities and ability to narrow down to individual data elements - Standards based data access protocols and mechanisms (SOAP, REST, OpenDAP, OGC etc.) - Integration of services across different data systems (discovery to access, visualizations and subseting) This presentation will also include specific examples of integration of various data systems that are developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory's - Climate Change Science Institute, their ability to communicate between each other to enable better data interoperability and data integration. References: [1] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, and Harold Shanafield. "Drupal: Collaborative framework for science research." Collaboration Technologies and Systems (CTS), 2011 International Conference on. IEEE, 2011. [2]Devarakonda, R., Shrestha, B., Palanisamy, G., Hook, L. A., Killeffer, T. S., Boden, T. A., ... & Lazer, K. (2014). THE NEW ONLINE METADATA EDITOR FOR GENERATING STRUCTURED METADATA. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL).

Tracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, Francina; Dall'erba, Sandy; Huang, Shuyi; Avelino, Andre; Mehran, Ali; Hu, Huancui; Schmidt, Arthur; Schick, Lawrence; Lettenmaier, Dennis

2018-03-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for more than 75 % of heavy precipitation events and nearly all of the extreme flooding events along the Olympic Mountains and western Cascade Mountains of western Washington state. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense, primarily due to increases in atmospheric water vapor. However, it is unclear how the changes in water vapor transport will affect regional flooding and associated economic impacts. In this work we present an integrated modeling system to quantify the atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic and economic impacts of the December 2007 AR event that impacted the Chehalis River basin in western Washington. We use the modeling system to project impacts under a hypothetical scenario in which the same December 2007 event occurs in a warmer climate. This method allows us to incorporate different types of uncertainty, including (a) alternative future radiative forcings, (b) different responses of the climate system to future radiative forcings and (c) different responses of the surface hydrologic system. In the warming scenario, AR integrated vapor transport increases; however, these changes do not translate into generalized increases in precipitation throughout the basin. The changes in precipitation translate into spatially heterogeneous changes in sub-basin runoff and increased streamflow along the entire Chehalis main stem. Economic losses due to stock damages increase moderately, but losses in terms of business interruption are significant. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the Chehalis region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.

The role of country-to-region assignments in global integrated modeling of energy, agriculture, land use, and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyle, P.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K. V.

2014-12-01

Global integrated assessment models used for understanding the linkages between the future energy, agriculture, and climate systems typically represent between 8 and 30 geopolitical macro-regions, balancing the benefits of geographic resolution with the costs of additional data collection, processing, analysis, and computing resources. As these models are continually being improved and updated in order to address new questions for the research and policy communities, it is worth examining the consequences of the country-to-region mapping schemes used for model results. This study presents an application of a data processing system built for the GCAM integrated assessment model that allows any country-to-region assignments, with a minimum of four geopolitical regions and a maximum of 185. We test ten different mapping schemes, including the specific mappings used in existing major integrated assessment models. We also explore the impacts of clustering nations into regions according to the similarity of the structure of each nation's energy and agricultural sectors, as indicated by multivariate analysis. Scenarios examined include a reference scenario, a low-emissions scenario, and scenarios with agricultural and buildings sector climate change impacts. We find that at the global level, the major output variables (primary energy, agricultural land use) are surprisingly similar regardless of regional assignments, but at finer geographic scales, differences are pronounced. We suggest that enhancing geographic resolution is advantageous for analysis of climate impacts on the buildings and agricultural sectors, due to the spatial heterogeneity of these drivers.

Harmonizing human-hydrological system under climate change: A scenario-based approach for the case of the headwaters of the Tagus River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobanova, Anastasia; Liersch, Stefan; Tàbara, J. David; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

2017-05-01

Conventional water management strategies, that serve solely socio-economic demands and neglect changing natural conditions of the river basins, face significant challenges in governing complex human-hydrological systems, especially in the areas with constrained water availability. In this study we assess the possibility to harmonize the inter-sectoral water allocation scheme within a highly altered human-hydrological system under reduction in water availability, triggered by projected climate change applying scenario-based approach. The Tagus River Basin headwaters, with significant disproportion in the water resources allocation between the environmental and socio-economic targets were taken as a perfect example of such system out of balance. We propose three different water allocation strategies for this region, including two conventional schemes and one imposing shift to sustainable water management and environmental restoration of the river. We combine in one integrated modelling framework the eco-hydrological process-based Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), coupled with the conceptual reservoir and water allocation modules driven by the latest bias-corrected climate projections for the region and investigate possible water allocation scenarios in the region under constrained water availability in the future. Our results show that the socio-economic demands have to be re-considered and lowered under any water allocation strategy, as the climate impacts may significantly reduce water availability in the future. Further, we show that a shift to sustainable water management strategy and river restoration is possible even under reduced water availability. Finally, our results suggest that the adaptation of complex human-hydrological systems to climate change and a shift to a more sustainable water management are likely to be parts of one joint strategy to cope with climate change impacts.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Talbert, Marian; Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

2017-07-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

A review of integration strategies for solid oxide fuel cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiongwen; Chan, S. H.; Li, Guojun; Ho, H. K.; Li, Jun; Feng, Zhenping

Due to increasing oil and gas demand, the depletion of fossil resources, serious global warming, efficient energy systems and new energy conversion processes are urgently needed. Fuel cells and hybrid systems have emerged as advanced thermodynamic systems with great promise in achieving high energy/power efficiency with reduced environmental loads. In particular, due to the synergistic effect of using integrated solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and classical thermodynamic cycle technologies, the efficiency of the integrated system can be significantly improved. This paper reviews different concepts/strategies for SOFC-based integration systems, which are timely transformational energy-related technologies available to overcome the threats posed by climate change and energy security.

Helena Chum | NREL

Science.gov Websites

systems, and international renewable energy activities including agriculture, forestry, bioenergy : Lead author of the Energy Systems Chapter and contributing author of the Agriculture, Forestry and , addressing climate change, sustainability certification of bioenergy and biomass, and integrated systems

Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas.

PubMed

McJeon, Haewon; Edmonds, Jae; Bauer, Nico; Clarke, Leon; Fisher, Brian; Flannery, Brian P; Hilaire, Jérôme; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Mi, Raymond; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Holger; Tavoni, Massimo

2014-10-23

The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from -2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.

Elucidating Critical Zone Process Interactions with an Integrated Hydrology Model in a Headwaters Research Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, C.; Maxwell, R. M.

2017-12-01

Providence Creek (P300) watershed is an alpine headwaters catchment located at the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO). Evidence of groundwater-dependent vegetation and drought-induced tree mortality at P300 along with the effect of subsurface characterization on mountain ecohydrology motivates this study. A hyper resolution integrated hydrology model of this site, along with extensive instrumentation, provides an opportunity to study the effects of lateral groundwater flow on vegetation's tolerance to drought. ParFlow-CLM is a fully integrated surface-subsurface model that is driven with reconstructed meteorology, such as the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset. However, large-scale data products mute orographic effects on climate at smaller scales. Climate variables often do not behave uniformly in highly heterogeneous mountain regions. Therefore, forcing physically-based integrated hydrologic models—especially of mountain headwaters catchments—with a large-scale data product is a major challenge. Obtaining reliable observations in complex terrain is challenging and while climate data products introduce uncertainties likewise, documented discrepancies between several data products and P300 observations suggest these data products may suffice. To tackle these issues, a suite of simulations was run to parse out (1) the effects of climate data source (data products versus observations) and (2) the effects of climate data spatial variability. One tool for evaluating the effect of climate data on model outputs is the relationship between latent head flux (LH) and evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning with water table depth (WTD). This zone of LH sensitivity to WTD is referred to as the "critical zone." Preliminary results suggest that these critical zone relationships are preserved despite forcing albeit significant shifts in magnitude. These results demonstrate that integrated hydrology models are sensitive to climate data thereby impacting the accuracy of hydrologic modeling of headwaters catchments used for water management and planning purposes and exploring the effects of climate change perturbations.

A Systems Approach to Climate, Water and Diarrhea in Hubli-Dharward, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mellor, J. E.; Zimmerman, J.

2014-12-01

Although evidence suggests that climate change will negatively impact water resources and hence diarrheal disease rates in the developing world, there is uncertainty surrounding prior studies. This is due to the complexity of the pathways by which climate impacts diarrhea rates making it difficult to develop interventions. Therefore, our goal was to develop a mechanistic systems approach that incorporates the complex climate, human, engineered and water systems to relate climate change to diarrhea rates under future climate scenarios.To do this, we developed an agent-based model (ABM). Our agents are households and children living in Hubli-Dharward, India. The model was informed with 15 months of weather, water quality, ethnographic and diarrhea incidence data. The model's front end is a stochastic weather simulator incorporating 15 global climate models to simulate rainfall and temperature. The water quality available to agents (residents) on a model "day" is a function of the simulated day's weather and is fully validated with field data. As with the field data, as the ambient temperature increases or it rains, the quality of water available to residents in the model deteriorates. The propensity for an resident to get diarrhea is calculated with an integrated Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment model with uncertainty simulated with a bootstrap method. Other factors include hand-washing, improved water sources, household water treatment and improved sanitation.The benefits of our approach are as follows: Our mechanistic method allows us to develop scientifically derived adaptation strategies. We can quantitatively link climate scenarios with diarrhea incidence over long time periods. We can explore the complex climate and water system dynamics, rank risk factor importance, examine a broad range of scenarios and identify tipping points. Our approach is modular and expandable such that new datasets can be integrated to study climate impacts on a larger scale. Our results indicate that climate change will have a serious effect on diarrhea incidence in the region. However, adaptation strategies including more reliable water supplies and household water treatment can mitigate these impacts.

Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Easterling, W. E.

2014-12-01

The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Emerging Climate Change and Development Topics for Energy Sector Transformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cox, Sarah L; Hotchkiss, Elizabeth L; Bilello, Daniel E

Reliable, safe, and secure electricity is essential for economic and social development and a necessary input for many sectors of the economy. However, electricity generation and associated processes make up a significant portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to climate change. Furthermore, electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts - both short-term events and changes over the longer term. This vulnerability presents both near-term and chronic challenges in providing reliable, affordable, equitable, and sustainable energy services. Within this context, developing countries face a number of challenges in the energy sector, including the need to reliably meet growingmore » electricity demand, lessen dependence on imported fuels, expand energy access, and improve stressed infrastructure for fuel supply and electricity transmission. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technical solutions described in this paper can bridge action across climate change mitigation and resilience through reducing GHG emissions and supporting electric power sector adaptation to increasing climate risk. Integrated planning approaches, also highlighted in this paper, play an integral role in bringing together mitigation and resilience action under broader frameworks. Through supporting EE and RE deployment and integrated planning approaches, unique to specific national and local circumstances, countries can design and implement policies, strategies, and sectoral plans that unite development priorities, climate change mitigation, and resilience.« less

Simulating forage crop production in a northern climate with the Integrated Farm System Model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Whole-farm simulation models are useful tools for evaluating the effect of management practices and climate variability on the agro-environmental and economic performance of farms. A few process-based farm-scale models have been developed, but none have been evaluated in a northern region with a sho...

Crop improvement in the era of climate change: an integrated, multi-disciplinary approach for common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Two forces are converging that will jointly challenge researchers to design programs that ensure our crop production systems meet the world’s food demand. Climate change will potentially reduce productivity while a global population increase will require more food. If productivity is not increased...

Benchmark Comparison of Dual- and Quad-Core Processor Linux Clusters with Two Global Climate Modeling Workloads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGalliard, James

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation details the science and systems environments that NASA High End computing program serves. Included is a discussion of the workload that is involved in the processing for the Global Climate Modeling. The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) is a system of models integrated using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The GEOS-5 system was used for the Benchmark tests, and the results of the tests are shown and discussed. Tests were also run for the Cubed Sphere system, results for these test are also shown.

Design and Implementation of Integrated Surveillance and Modeling Systems for Climate-Sensitive Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wimberly, M. C.; Merkord, C. L.; Davis, J. K.; Liu, Y.; Henebry, G. M.; Hildreth, M. B.

2016-12-01

Climatic variations have a multitude of effects on human health, ranging from the direct impacts of extreme heat events to indirect effects on the vectors and hosts that transmit infectious diseases. Disease surveillance has traditionally focused on monitoring human cases, and in some instances tracking populations sizes and infection rates of arthropod vectors and zoonotic hosts. For climate-sensitive diseases, there is a potential to strengthen surveillance and obtain early indicators of future outbreaks by monitoring environmental risk factors using broad-scale sensor networks that include earth-observing satellites as well as ground stations. We highlight the opportunities and challenges of this integration by presenting modeling results and discussing lessons learned from two projects focused on surveillance and forecasting of mosquito-borne diseases. The Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessement (EPIDEMIA) project integrates malaria case surveillance with remotely-sensed environmental data for early detection of malaria epidemics in the Amhara region of Ethiopia and has been producing weekly forecast reports since 2015. The South Dakota Mosquito Information System (SDMIS) project similarly combines entomological surveillance with environmental monitoring to generate weekly maps for West Nile virus (WNV) in the north-central United States. We are currently implementing a new disease forecasting and risk reporting framework for the state of South Dakota during the 2016 WNV transmission season. Despite important differences in disease ecology and geographic setting, our experiences with these projects highlight several important lessons learned that can inform future efforts at disease early warning based on climatic predictors. These include the need to engage end users in system design from the outset, the critical role of automated workflows to facilitate the timely integration of multiple data streams, the importance of focused visualizations that synthesize modeling results, and the challenge of linking risk indicators and forecasts to specific public health responses.

Soil and Land Resources Information System (SLISYS-Tarim) for Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Othmanli, Hussein; Zhao, Chengyi; Stahr, Karl

2017-04-01

The Tarim River Basin is the largest continental basin in China. The region has extremely continental desert climate characterized by little rainfall <50 mm/a and high potential evaporation >3000 mm/a. The climate change is affecting severely the basin causing soil salinization, water shortage, and regression in crop production. Therefore, a Soil and Land Resources Information System (SLISYS-Tarim) for the regional simulation of crop yield production in the basin was developed. The SLISYS-Tarim consists of a database and an agro-ecological simulation model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). The database comprises relational tables including information about soils, terrain conditions, land use, and climate. The soil data implicate information of 50 soil profiles which were dug, analyzed, described and classified in order to characterize the soils in the region. DEM data were integrated with geological maps to build a digital terrain structure. Remote sensing data of Landsat images were applied for soil mapping, and for land use and land cover classification. An additional database for climate data, land management and crop information were linked to the system, too. Construction of the SLISYS-Tarim database was accomplished by integrating and overlaying the recommended thematic maps within environment of the geographic information system (GIS) to meet the data standard of the global and national SOTER digital database. This database forms appropriate input- and output data for the crop modelling with the EPIC model at various scales in the Tarim Basin. The EPIC model was run for simulating cotton production under a constructed scenario characterizing the current management practices, soil properties and climate conditions. For the EPIC model calibration, some parameters were adjusted so that the modeled cotton yield fits to the measured yield on the filed scale. The validation of the modeling results was achieved in a later step based on remote sensing data. The simulated cotton yield varied according to field management, soil type and salinity level, where soil salinity was the main limiting factor. Furthermore, the calibrated and validated EPIC model was run under several scenarios of climate conditions and land management practices to estimate the effect of climate change on cotton production and sustainability of agriculture systems in the basin. The application of SLISYS-Tarim showed that this database can be a suitable framework for storage and retrieval of soil and terrain data at various scales. The simulation with the EPIC model can assess the impact of climate change and management strategies. Therefore, SLISYS-Tarim can be a good tool for regional planning and serve the decision support system on regional and national scale.

Building the Capacity for Climate Services: Thoughts on Training Next Generation Climate Science Integrators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, G. M.; Brugger, J.; Gordon, E. S.; Barsugli, J. J.; Rangwala, I.; Travis, W.

2015-12-01

For more than a decade, stakeholder needs assessments and reports, including the recent National Climate Assessment, have pointed out the need for climate "science translators" or "science integrators" who can help bridge the gap between the cultures and contexts of researchers and decision-makers. Integration is important for exchanging and enhancing knowledge, building capacity to use climate information in decision making, and fostering more robust planning for decision-making in the context of climate change. This talk will report on the characteristics of successful climate science integrators, and a variety of models for training the upcoming generation of climate science integrators. Science integration characteristics identified by an experienced vanguard in the U.S. include maintaining credibility in both the scientific and stakeholder communities, a basic respect for stakeholders demonstrated through active listening, and a deep understanding of the decision-making context. Drawing upon the lessons of training programs for Cooperative Extension, public health professionals, and natural resource managers, we offer ideas about training next generation climate science integrators. Our model combines training and development of skills in interpersonal relations, communication of science, project implementation, education techniques and practices - integrated with a strong foundation in disciplinary knowledge.

A Hybrid Evaluation System Framework (Shell & Web) with Standardized Access to Climate Model Data and Verification Tools for a Clear Climate Science Infrastructure on Big Data High Performance Computers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kunst, O.; Cubasch, U.

2014-12-01

The project 'Integrated Data and Evaluation System for Decadal Scale Prediction' (INTEGRATION) as part of the German decadal prediction project MiKlip develops a central evaluation system. The fully operational hybrid features a HPC shell access and an user friendly web-interface. It employs one common system with a variety of verification tools and validation data from different projects in- and outside of MiKlip. The evaluation system is located at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ) and has direct access to the bulk of its ESGF node including millions of climate model data sets, e.g. from CMIP5 and CORDEX. The database is organized by the international CMOR standard using the meta information of the self-describing model, reanalysis and observational data sets. Apache Solr is used for indexing the different data projects into one common search environment. This implemented meta data system with its advanced but easy to handle search tool supports users, developers and their tools to retrieve the required information. A generic application programming interface (API) allows scientific developers to connect their analysis tools with the evaluation system independently of the programming language used. Users of the evaluation techniques benefit from the common interface of the evaluation system without any need to understand the different scripting languages. Facilitating the provision and usage of tools and climate data increases automatically the number of scientists working with the data sets and identify discrepancies. Additionally, the history and configuration sub-system stores every analysis performed with the evaluation system in a MySQL database. Configurations and results of the tools can be shared among scientists via shell or web-system. Therefore, plugged-in tools gain automatically from transparency and reproducibility. Furthermore, when configurations match while starting a evaluation tool, the system suggests to use results already produced by other users-saving CPU time, I/O and disk space. This study presents the different techniques and advantages of such a hybrid evaluation system making use of a Big Data HPC in climate science. website: www-miklip.dkrz.de visitor-login: guest password: miklip

A Hybrid Evaluation System Framework (Shell & Web) with Standardized Access to Climate Model Data and Verification Tools for a Clear Climate Science Infrastructure on Big Data High Performance Computers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, Christopher; Illing, Sebastian; Kunst, Oliver; Ulbrich, Uwe; Cubasch, Ulrich

2015-04-01

The project 'Integrated Data and Evaluation System for Decadal Scale Prediction' (INTEGRATION) as part of the German decadal prediction project MiKlip develops a central evaluation system. The fully operational hybrid features a HPC shell access and an user friendly web-interface. It employs one common system with a variety of verification tools and validation data from different projects in- and outside of MiKlip. The evaluation system is located at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ) and has direct access to the bulk of its ESGF node including millions of climate model data sets, e.g. from CMIP5 and CORDEX. The database is organized by the international CMOR standard using the meta information of the self-describing model, reanalysis and observational data sets. Apache Solr is used for indexing the different data projects into one common search environment. This implemented meta data system with its advanced but easy to handle search tool supports users, developers and their tools to retrieve the required information. A generic application programming interface (API) allows scientific developers to connect their analysis tools with the evaluation system independently of the programming language used. Users of the evaluation techniques benefit from the common interface of the evaluation system without any need to understand the different scripting languages. Facilitating the provision and usage of tools and climate data increases automatically the number of scientists working with the data sets and identify discrepancies. Additionally, the history and configuration sub-system stores every analysis performed with the evaluation system in a MySQL database. Configurations and results of the tools can be shared among scientists via shell or web-system. Therefore, plugged-in tools gain automatically from transparency and reproducibility. Furthermore, when configurations match while starting a evaluation tool, the system suggests to use results already produced by other users-saving CPU time, I/O and disk space. This study presents the different techniques and advantages of such a hybrid evaluation system making use of a Big Data HPC in climate science. website: www-miklip.dkrz.de visitor-login: click on "Guest"

Development and application of earth system models

PubMed Central

Prinn, Ronald G.

2013-01-01

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important “systems” problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981–2000 to 2091–2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether “climate engineering” is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better. PMID:22706645

An approach to designing a national climate service

PubMed Central

Miles, E. L.; Snover, A. K.; Whitely Binder, L. C.; Sarachik, E. S.; Mote, P. W.; Mantua, N.

2006-01-01

Climate variability and change are considerably important for a wide range of human activities and natural ecosystems. Climate science has made major advances during the last two decades, yet climate information is neither routinely useful for nor used in planning. What is needed is a mechanism, a national climate service (NCS), to connect climate science to decision-relevant questions and support building capacity to anticipate, plan for, and adapt to climate fluctuations. This article contributes to the national debate for an NCS by describing the rationale for building an NCS, the functions and services it would provide, and how it should be designed and evaluated. The NCS is most effectively achieved as a federal interagency partnership with critically important participation by regional climate centers, state climatologists, the emerging National Integrated Drought Information System, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences Assessment (RISA) teams in a sustained relationship with a wide variety of stakeholders. Because the NCS is a service, and because evidence indicates that the regional spatial scale is most important for delivering climate services, given subnational geographical/geophysical complexity, attention is focused on lessons learned from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group's 10 years of experience, the first of the NOAA RISA teams. PMID:17158218

An approach to designing a national climate service.

PubMed

Miles, E L; Snover, A K; Whitely Binder, L C; Sarachik, E S; Mote, P W; Mantua, N

2006-12-26

Climate variability and change are considerably important for a wide range of human activities and natural ecosystems. Climate science has made major advances during the last two decades, yet climate information is neither routinely useful for nor used in planning. What is needed is a mechanism, a national climate service (NCS), to connect climate science to decision-relevant questions and support building capacity to anticipate, plan for, and adapt to climate fluctuations. This article contributes to the national debate for an NCS by describing the rationale for building an NCS, the functions and services it would provide, and how it should be designed and evaluated. The NCS is most effectively achieved as a federal interagency partnership with critically important participation by regional climate centers, state climatologists, the emerging National Integrated Drought Information System, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences Assessment (RISA) teams in a sustained relationship with a wide variety of stakeholders. Because the NCS is a service, and because evidence indicates that the regional spatial scale is most important for delivering climate services, given subnational geographical/geophysical complexity, attention is focused on lessons learned from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group's 10 years of experience, the first of the NOAA RISA teams.

Earth System Modeling and Field Experiments in the Arctic-Boreal Zone - Report from a NASA Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, Piers; Rienecker Michele; Randall, David; Frolking, Steve

2012-01-01

Early climate modeling studies predicted that the Arctic Ocean and surrounding circumpolar land masses would heat up earlier and faster than other parts of the planet as a result of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, augmented by the sea-ice albedo feedback effect. These predictions have been largely borne out by observations over the last thirty years. However, despite constant improvement, global climate models have greater difficulty in reproducing the current climate in the Arctic than elsewhere and the scatter between projections from different climate models is much larger in the Arctic than for other regions. Biogeochemical cycle (BGC) models indicate that the warming in the Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) could lead to widespread thawing of the permafrost, along with massive releases of CO2 and CH4, and large-scale changes in the vegetation cover in the ABZ. However, the uncertainties associated with these BGC model predictions are even larger than those associated with the physical climate system models used to describe climate change. These deficiencies in climate and BGC models reflect, at least in part, an incomplete understanding of the Arctic climate system and can be related to inadequate observational data or analyses of existing data. A workshop was held at NASA/GSFC, May 22-24 2012, to assess the predictive capability of the models, prioritize the critical science questions; and make recommendations regarding new field experiments needed to improve model subcomponents. This presentation will summarize the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including the need for aircraft and flux tower measurements and extension of existing in-situ measurements to improve process modeling of both the physical climate and biogeochemical cycle systems. Studies should be directly linked to remote sensing investigations with a view to scaling up the improved process models to the Earth System Model scale. Data assimilation and observing system simulation studies should be used to guide the deployment pattern and schedule for inversion studies as well. Synthesis and integration of previously funded Arctic-Boreal projects (e.g., ABLE, BOREAS, ICESCAPE, ICEBRIDGE, ARCTAS) should also be undertaken. Such an effort would include the integration of multiple remotely sensed products from the EOS satellites and other resources.

Guide for Regional Integrated Assessments: Handbook of Methods and Procedures, Version 5.1. Appendix 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Jones, James W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Antle, John; Ruane, Alex; Boote, Ken; Thorburn, Peter; Valdivia, Roberto; Porter, Cheryl; Janssen, Sander;

Interdisciplinary MSc and Doctoral Education in Climate System Science at the University of Hamburg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilly, Oliver; Stammer, Detlef; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

2010-05-01

Modern education in climate system sciences is based on a number of disciplines such as meteorology, geophysics, oceanography, geosciences and also economics and social sciences. Facts across these disciplines are required to address the faced key issues related to climate change effectively. Climate experts need to have profound knowledge that can only be achieved in interdisciplinary MSc and PhD programs. In Europe, graduate students who completed a BSc degree are typically proceeding with MSc programs to increase knowledge and qualification. Afterwards, the participation in a doctoral program may follow. Many doctoral programs include courses supporting disciplinary methodological and scientific background in particular. Those courses derive either from advanced MSc programs or specific trainings. Typically, interdisciplinary exchange is difficult to achieve at any stage of disciplinary graduate programs. Recent developments showed the need to educate climate experts in interdisciplinary MSc programs in climate system sciences for both researchers and professionals outside the university. The University of Hamburg offers an interdisciplinary 2-yr MSc program in Integrated System Sciences with 120 ECTS (30 compulsory, 90 eligible) in English language. If the MSc student decides to proceed with a PhD thesis, he/she may not necessarily complete the MSc program but may start to work on a specific and disciplinary doctoral thesis for 3 years. Each doctoral student is guided by an advisory panel (AP) which meets at least bi-annually. The AP consists of a Principal Advisor, a Co-Advisor and a Chair of the panel who come from neighboring disciplines. The structured doctoral program with only 12 CPs includes interdisciplinary compulsory courses and tailor-made eligible expert courses. Summer schools and soft skill courses add to both MSc and doctoral programs. Accordingly, the new graduate school concepts in climate system sciences at the University of Hamburg supports starting with the interdisciplinary MSc program Integrated Climate System Sciences and then get in-depth disciplinary expertise during PhD studies. The completion of the total MSc curriculum may not be essential. Advantages and limitations of this concept will be discussed.

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

a System Dynamics Approach for Looking at the Human and Environmental Interactions of Community-Based Irrigation Systems in New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa, C. G.; Tidwell, V. C.

2012-12-01

In the arid southwestern United States community water management systems have adapted to cope with climate variability and with socio-cultural and economic changes that have occurred since the establishment of these systems more than 300 years ago. In New Mexico, the community-based irrigation systems were established by Spanish settlers and have endured climate variability in the form of low levels of precipitation and have prevailed over important socio-political changes including the transfer of territory between Spain and Mexico, and between Mexico and the United States. Because of their inherent nature of integrating land and water use with society involvement these community-based systems have multiple and complex economic, ecological, and cultural interactions. Current urban population growth and more variable climate conditions are adding pressure to the survival of these systems. We are conducting a multi-disciplinary research project that focuses on characterizing these intrinsically complex human and natural interactions in three community-based irrigation systems in northern New Mexico. We are using a system dynamics approach to integrate different hydrological, ecological, socio-cultural and economic aspects of these three irrigation systems. Coupled with intensive field data collection, we are building a system dynamics model that will enable us to simulate important linkages and interactions between environmental and human elements occurring in each of these water management systems. We will test different climate variability and population growth scenarios and the expectation is that we will be able to identify critical tipping points of these systems. Results from this model can be used to inform policy recommendations relevant to the environment and to urban and agricultural land use planning in the arid southwestern United States.

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Southwestern DoD Facilities

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-03

integrating climate change risks into decision priorities. 15. SUBJECT TERMS adaptation, baseline sensitivity, climate change, climate exposure...four bases we found that integrating climate change risks into the current decision matrix, by linking projected risks to current or past impacts...data and decision tools and methods. Bases have some capacity to integrate climate-related information, but they have limited resources to undertake

University of Rhode Island Regional Earth Systems Center

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rothstein, Lewis; Cornillon, P.

The primary objective of this program was to establish the URI Regional Earth System Center (“Center”) that would enhance overall societal wellbeing (health, financial, environmental) by utilizing the best scientific information and technology to achieve optimal policy decisions with maximum stakeholder commitment for energy development, coastal environmental management, water resources protection and human health protection, while accelerating regional economic growth. The Center was to serve to integrate existing URI institutional strengths in energy, coastal environmental management, water resources, and human wellbeing. This integrated research, educational and public/private sector outreach Center was to focus on local, state and regional resources. Themore » centerpiece activity of the Center was in the development and implementation of integrated assessment models (IAMs) that both ‘downscaled’ global observations and interpolated/extrapolated regional observations for analyzing the complexity of interactions among humans and the natural climate system to further our understanding and, ultimately, to predict the future state of our regional earth system. The Center was to begin by first ‘downscaling’ existing global earth systems management tools for studying the causes of local, state and regional climate change and potential social and environmental consequences, with a focus on the regional resources identified above. The Center would ultimately need to address the full feedbacks inherent in the nonlinear earth systems by quantifying the “upscaled” impacts of those regional changes on the global earth system. Through an interacting suite of computer simulations that are informed by observations from the nation’s evolving climate observatories, the Center activities integrates climate science, technology, economics, and social policy into forecasts that will inform solutions to pressing issues in regional climate change science, ‘green economy’ investment and climate policy. These project objectives were designed as part of a 5-year program, which would have constituted the initial phase for the establishment of the Center. Almost immediately (i.e. before receiving even the first year of funding) we were informed that we would not be receiving any funding beyond the initial phase; one year. This seriously impacted our ability to deliver on our objectives and, with that, a re-scoping of the Center priorities was designed to fit the 1-year constraints on funding. It was decided that, given the Center’s emphasis on building IAMs, the best way to proceed was to first focus on one particularly important component of the IAM – a natural sciences model that would be useful for research and forecasting of the circualation/ecology/biogeochemistry of RI’s coastal waters. We have succeeded on that necessarily more limited objective, as we will describe below.« less

Advanced Extended Plate and Beam Wall System in a Cold-Climate House

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mallay, Dave; Wiehagen, Joseph; Kochkin, Vladimir

This report presents the design and evaluation of an innovative wall system. This highly insulated (high-R) light-frame wall system for use above grade in residential buildings is referred to as Extended Plate & Beam (EP&B). The EP&B design is the first of its kind to be featured in a new construction test house (NCTH) for the DOE Building America program. The EP&B wall design integrates standard building methods and common building products to construct a high-R wall that minimizes transition risks and costs to builders. The EP&B design combines optimized framing with integrated rigid foam sheathing to increase the wallmore » system's R-value and reduce thermal bridging. The foam sheathing is installed between the wall studs and structural wood sheathing. The exterior wood sheathing is attached directly to a framing extension formed by extended top and bottom plates. The exterior wood sheathing can dry to the exterior and provides bracing, a clear drainage plane and flashing surface for window and door openings, and a nailing surface for siding attachment. With support of the DOE Building America program, Home Innovation Research Labs partnered with Lancaster County Career and Technology Center (LCCTC) to build a NCTH in Lancaster, PA to demonstrate the EP&B wall design in a cold climate (IECC climate zone 5A). The results of the study confirmed the benefits of the systems and the viability of its integration into the house construction process.« less

Assessment of Urbanization on the Integrated Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Environment in Coastal Metropolis in Preparation for HyspIRI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sequera, Pedro; McDonald, Kyle C.; Gonzalez, Jorge; Arend, Mark; Krakauer, Nir; Bornstein, Robert; Luvll, Jeffrey

2012-01-01

The need for comprehensive studies of the relationships between past and projected changes of regional climate and human activity in comple x urban environments has been well established. The HyspIRI preparato ry airborne activities in California, associated science and applicat ions research, and eventually HyspIRI itself provide an unprecedented opportunity for development and implementation of an integrated data and modeling analysis system focused on coastal urban environments. We will utilize HyspIRI preparatory data collections in developing ne w remote sensing-based tools for investigating the integrated urban e nvironment, emphasizing weather, climate, and energy demands in compl ex coastal cities.

Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

2015-12-01

Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

Climate change studies and the human sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, Poul; Winiwarter, Verena

2017-09-01

Policy makers have made repeated calls for integration of human and natural sciences in the field of climate change. Serious multidisciplinary attempts began already in the 1950s. Progress has certainly been made in understanding the role of humans in the planetary system. New perspectives have clarified policy advice, and three insights are singled out in the paper: the critique of historicism, the distinction between benign and wicked problems, and the cultural critique of the 'myths of nature'. Nevertheless, analysis of the IPCC Assessment Reports indicates that integration is skewed towards a particular dimension of human sciences (economics) and major insights from cultural theory and historical analysis have not made it into climate science. A number of relevant disciplines are almost absent in the composition of authorship. Nevertheless, selective assumptions and arguments are made about e.g. historical findings in key documents. In conclusion, we suggest to seek remedies for the lack of historical scholarship in the IPCC reports. More effort at science-policy exchange is needed, and an Integrated Platform to channel humanities and social science expertise for climate change research might be one promising way.

A Practical Review of Integrated Urban Water Models: Applications as Decision Support Tools and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosleh, L.; Negahban-Azar, M.

2017-12-01

The integrated urban water management has become a necessity due to the high rate of urbanization, water scarcity, and climate variability. Climate and demographic changes, shifting the social attitude toward the water usage, and insufficiencies in system resilience increase the pressure on the water resources. Alongside with the water management, modeling urban water systems have progressed from traditional view to comprise alternatives such as decentralized water and wastewater systems, fit-for-purpose practice, graywater/rainwater reuse, and green infrastructure. While there are review papers available focusing on the technical part of the models, they seem to be more beneficial for model developers. Some of the models analyze a number of scenarios considering factors such as climate change and demography and their future impacts. However, others only focus on quality and quantity of water in a supply/demand approach. For example, optimizing the size of water or waste water store, characterizing the supply and quantity of urban stormwater and waste water, and link source of water to demand. A detailed and practical comparison of such models has become a necessity for the practitioner and policy makers. This research compares more than 7 most commonly used integrated urban water cycle models and critically reviews their capabilities, input requirements, output and their applications. The output of such detailed comparison will help the policy makers for the decision process in the built environment to compare and choose the best models that meet their goals. The results of this research show that we need a transition from developing/using integrated water cycle models to integrated system models which incorporate urban water infrastructures and ecological and economic factors. Such models can help decision makers to reflect other important criteria but with the focus on urban water management. The research also showed that there is a need in exploring sustainability, comprising water energy-nexus, and considering ecosystem services in the models. In addition, socio-economic factors such as public acceptance can be added to such models. Finally, the reliability and resilience of urban water management scenarios should be addressed under different uncertainties such as climate variability.

Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Brooke, Cassandra

2008-12-01

The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

Design techniques for modular integrated utility systems. [energy production and conversion efficiency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolfer, B. M.

1977-01-01

Features basic to the integrated utility system, such as solid waste incineration, heat recovery and usage, and water recycling/treatment, are compared in terms of cost, fuel conservation, and efficiency to conventional utility systems in the same mean-climatic area of Washington, D. C. The larger of the two apartment complexes selected for the test showed the more favorable results in the three areas of comparison. Restrictions concerning the sole use of currently available technology are hypothetically removed to consider the introduction and possible advantages of certain advanced techniques in an integrated utility system; recommendations are made and costs are estimated for each type of system.

Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances

2017-11-01

Understanding the value of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions matters for policy decisions and climate risk management, but quantification is challenging because of the complex interactions and uncertainties in the Earth and human systems, as well as normative ethical considerations. Current modelling approaches use damage functions to parameterize a simplified relationship between climate variables, such as temperature change, and economic losses. Here we review and synthesize the limitations of these damage functions and describe how incorporating impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research advances and empirical findings could substantially improve damage modelling and the robustness of social cost of carbon values produced. We discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these research advances into cost-benefit integrated assessment models, with guidance for future work.

Dynamic Agroecological Zones for the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggins, D. R.; Rupp, R.; Gessler, P.; Pan, W.; Brown, D. J.; Machado, S.; Walden, V. P.; Eigenbrode, S.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2011-12-01

Agroecological zones (AEZ's) have traditionally been defined by integrating multiple layers of biophysical (e.g. climate, soil, terrain) and occasionally socioeconomic data to create unique zones with specific ranges of land use constraints and potentials. Our approach to defining AEZ's assumes that current agricultural land uses have emerged as a consequence of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers. Therefore, we explore the concept that AEZ's can be derived from classifying the geographic distribution of current agricultural systems (e.g. the wheat-fallow cropping system zone) based on spatially geo-referenced annual cropland use data that is currently available through the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS). By defining AEZ's in this way, we expect to: (1) provide baseline information that geographically delineates the boundaries of current AEZ's and subzones and therefore the capacity to evaluate shifts in AEZ boundaries over time; (2) assess the biophysical (e.g. climate, soils, terrain) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. commodity prices) that are most useful for predicting and correctly classifying current AEZ's, subzones or future shifts in AEZ boundaries; (3) identify and develop AEZ-relevant climate mitigation and adaptation strategies; and (4) integrate biophysical and socioeconomic data sources to pursue a transdisciplinary examination of climate-driven AEZ futures. Achieving these goals will aid in realizing major objectives for a USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, Cooperative Agricultural Project entitled "Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) for Pacific Northwest Agriculture". REACCH is a research, education and extension project under the leadership of the University of Idaho with significant collaboration from Washington State University, Oregon State University and the USDA Agricultural Research Service that is working towards increasing the capacity of Inland Pacific Northwest cereal production systems to adapt to and mitigate climate change. The AEZ concept is central to project-wide integration that will enable researchers, stakeholders, students, the public, and policymakers to acquire a more holistic understanding of the interrelationships of agriculture, climate change and the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Therefore AEZ's are part of a prescription for land management, given climate change that will enable the incorporation of information from climate models, economic models, crop models, pest disease and weed vulnerabilities, and other data sources. Specific to this presentation, we address the AEZ-related objective of developing methodology for defining major AEZ's within the Inland Pacific Northwest REACCH study area based on annual NASS cropland data.

An integrated assessment modeling framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change: the MIT IGSM-CAM (version 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

2013-12-01

This paper describes a computationally efficient framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change. In this framework, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to a human activity model, is linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Since the MIT IGSM-CAM framework (version 1.0) incorporates a human activity model, it is possible to analyze uncertainties in emissions resulting from both uncertainties in the underlying socio-economic characteristics of the economic model and in the choice of climate-related policies. Another major feature is the flexibility to vary key climate parameters controlling the climate system response to changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols concentrations, e.g., climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake rate, and strength of the aerosol forcing. The IGSM-CAM is not only able to realistically simulate the present-day mean climate and the observed trends at the global and continental scale, but it also simulates ENSO variability with realistic time scales, seasonality and patterns of SST anomalies, albeit with stronger magnitudes than observed. The IGSM-CAM shares the same general strengths and limitations as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in simulating present-day annual mean surface temperature and precipitation. Over land, the IGSM-CAM shows similar biases to the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3, which shares the same atmospheric model. This study also presents 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (unconstrained scenario and stabilization scenario at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent) similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and three sets of climate parameters. Results of the simulations with the chosen climate parameters provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century changes in global mean surface air temperature from previous work with the IGSM. Because the IGSM-CAM framework only considers one particular climate model, it cannot be used to assess the structural modeling uncertainty arising from differences in the parameterization suites of climate models. However, comparison of the IGSM-CAM projections with simulations of 31 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show that the range of warming at the continental scale shows very good agreement between the two ensemble simulations, except over Antarctica, where the IGSM-CAM overestimates the warming. This demonstrates that by sampling the climate system response, the IGSM-CAM, even though it relies on one single climate model, can essentially reproduce the range of future continental warming simulated by more than 30 different models. Precipitation changes projected in the IGSM-CAM simulations and the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble both display a large uncertainty at the continental scale. The two ensemble simulations show good agreement over Asia and Europe. However, the ranges of precipitation changes do not overlap - but display similar size - over Africa and South America, two continents where models generally show little agreement in the sign of precipitation changes and where CCSM3 tends to be an outlier. Overall, the IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and consistent framework to explore the large uncertainty in future projections of global and regional climate change associated with uncertainty in the climate response and projected emissions.

Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

2016-09-01

Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

A Methadology for Near-Real-Time Access to Environmental Data through Federation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orcutt, J. A.; Rajasekar, A.; Moore, R. W.; Vernon, F.

2015-12-01

The availability of near-real-time data can be critical for response to rapid changes including violent storms, tsunamis and earthquakes. While climate changes relatively slowly, compared to a tsunami, the increasing variance in weather over time and warming must also be considered in terms of civil impacts. A simple example is the decreasing resilience of coastal communities to severe weather as sea level increases. The integration of these data for modeling and response activities in near-real-time must be pursued to make data collection practical. We present an approach to data and metadata integration that has occurred over the past 10-20 years in Earth and Ocean sciences that provide a model for the future. The NSF Data Federation Consortium (DFC) is working to integrate data and metadata from a number of fields using iRODS (Integrated Rule-Oriented Data System). iRODS is open source software for building distributed data collections. In particular, the SCION (SCIence Observatory Network) funded by the NSF provides Python-based software for data and metadata access from a variety of near-real-time data sets relevant to climate studies including weather and hazards from other observational systems. As an example, we are working on the integration of data on shore and offshore in southern California using resources from the High Performance Wireless Research and Education Network (HPWREN) and the Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS). National and International integration of near-real-time earthquake data through the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and the International Federation of Digital Seismic Networks (FDSN) provide a well-integrated data and metadata system for both research and civil uses. ObsPy, written in Python, has proved to be a highly successful methodology for accessing global data from thousands of stations with well-developed metadata. The persistence of the data and metadata, in turn, provides long-term provenance particularly important for climate data. We discuss these various tools and the current state of efforts in broader integration of Earth data.

Improving the cost-effectiveness of IRS with climate informed health surveillance systems

PubMed Central

Worrall, Eve; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

2008-01-01

Background This paper examines how the cost-effectiveness of IRS varies depending on the severity of transmission and level of programme coverage and how efficiency could be improved by incorporating climate information into decision making for malaria control programmes as part of an integrated Malaria Early Warning and Response System (MEWS). Methods A climate driven model of malaria transmission was used to simulate cost-effectiveness of alternative IRS coverage levels over six epidemic and non-epidemic years. Decision rules for a potential MEWS system that triggers different IRS coverage are described. The average and marginal cost per case averted with baseline IRS coverage (24%) and under varying IRS coverage levels (50%, 75% and 100%) were calculated. Results Average cost-effectiveness of 24% coverage varies dramatically between years, from US$108 per case prevented in low transmission to US$0.42 in epidemic years. Similarly for higher coverage (24–100%) cost per case prevented is far higher in low than high transmission years ($108–$267 to $0.88–$2.26). Discussion Efficiency and health benefit gains could be achieved by implementing MEWS that provides timely, accurate information. Evidence from southern Africa, (especially Botswana) supports this. Conclusion Advance knowledge of transmission severity can help managers make coverage decisions which optimise resource use and exploit efficiency gains if a fully integrated MEWS is in place alongside a health system with sufficient flexibility to modify control plans in response to information. More countries and programmes should be supported to use the best available evidence and science to integrate climate informed MEWS into decision making within malaria control programmes. PMID:19108723

Design of a photovoltaic system for a temperate climate all-electric residence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehalick, E. M.; Tully, G. F.; Johnson, J.; Truncellito, N.; Schaeffer, R.

1982-01-01

A photovoltaic system was developed and integrated into a single story residence having low space conditioning loads typical of a temperate climate similar to Santa Maria, CA. The design addresses the residential market segment of low energy consuming houses with limited roof area availability; in fact the garage roof is used for the array. The array size to meet the requirements of this type of house covers 40 square m with a rated power output of 4.3 kW at NOCT conditions. A flexible array installation is presented which can be implemented as an integral mount or a stand-off mount depending on the homeowner preference. A 4 kW utility-tied inverter is used in the power conversion subsystem, representative of currently available hardware. The system provides feedback of excess energy to the utility which is the most promising approach for grid-connected residential systems in the mid 1980's.

Building Systems from Scratch: an Exploratory Study of Students Learning About Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puttick, Gillian; Tucker-Raymond, Eli

2018-01-01

Science and computational practices such as modeling and abstraction are critical to understanding the complex systems that are integral to climate science. Given the demonstrated affordances of game design in supporting such practices, we implemented a free 4-day intensive workshop for middle school girls that focused on using the visual programming environment, Scratch, to design games to teach others about climate change. The experience was carefully constructed so that girls of widely differing levels of experience were able to engage in a cycle of game design. This qualitative study aimed to explore the representational choices the girls made as they took up aspects of climate change systems and modeled them in their games. Evidence points to the ways in which designing games about climate science fostered emergent systems thinking and engagement in modeling practices as learners chose what to represent in their games, grappled with the realism of their respective representations, and modeled interactions among systems components. Given the girls' levels of programming skill, parts of systems were more tractable to create than others. The educational purpose of the games was important to the girls' overall design experience, since it influenced their choice of topic, and challenged their emergent understanding of climate change as a systems problem.

Integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology: Model formulation and proof-of-concept simulations

DOE PAGES

Painter, Scott L.; Coon, Ethan T.; Atchley, Adam L.; ...

2016-08-11

The need to understand potential climate impacts and feedbacks in Arctic regions has prompted recent interest in modeling of permafrost dynamics in a warming climate. A new fine-scale integrated surface/subsurface thermal hydrology modeling capability is described and demonstrated in proof-of-concept simulations. The new modeling capability combines a surface energy balance model with recently developed three-dimensional subsurface thermal hydrology models and new models for nonisothermal surface water flows and snow distribution in the microtopography. Surface water flows are modeled using the diffusion wave equation extended to include energy transport and phase change of ponded water. Variation of snow depth in themore » microtopography, physically the result of wind scour, is also modeled heuristically with a diffusion wave equation. The multiple surface and subsurface processes are implemented by leveraging highly parallel community software. Fully integrated thermal hydrology simulations on the tilted open book catchment, an important test case for integrated surface/subsurface flow modeling, are presented. Fine-scale 100-year projections of the integrated permafrost thermal hydrological system on an ice wedge polygon at Barrow Alaska in a warming climate are also presented. Finally, these simulations demonstrate the feasibility of microtopography-resolving, process-rich simulations as a tool to help understand possible future evolution of the carbon-rich Arctic tundra in a warming climate.« less

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Public Health Practice: Using Adaptive Management to Increase Adaptive Capacity and Build Resilience

PubMed Central

McDowell, Julia Z.; Luber, George

2011-01-01

Background: Climate change is expected to have a range of health impacts, some of which are already apparent. Public health adaptation is imperative, but there has been little discussion of how to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in public health systems. Objectives: We explored possible explanations for the lack of work on adaptive capacity, outline climate–health challenges that may lie outside public health’s coping range, and consider changes in practice that could increase public health’s adaptive capacity. Methods: We conducted a substantive, interdisciplinary literature review focused on climate change adaptation in public health, social learning, and management of socioeconomic systems exhibiting dynamic complexity. Discussion: There are two competing views of how public health should engage climate change adaptation. Perspectives differ on whether climate change will primarily amplify existing hazards, requiring enhancement of existing public health functions, or present categorically distinct threats requiring innovative management strategies. In some contexts, distinctly climate-sensitive health threats may overwhelm public health’s adaptive capacity. Addressing these threats will require increased emphasis on institutional learning, innovative management strategies, and new and improved tools. Adaptive management, an iterative framework that embraces uncertainty, uses modeling, and integrates learning, may be a useful approach. We illustrate its application to extreme heat in an urban setting. Conclusions: Increasing public health capacity will be necessary for certain climate–health threats. Focusing efforts to increase adaptive capacity in specific areas, promoting institutional learning, embracing adaptive management, and developing tools to facilitate these processes are important priorities and can improve the resilience of local public health systems to climate change. PMID:21997387

Farm simulation: a tool for evaluating the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation of dairy production to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Process-level modeling at the farm scale provides a tool for evaluating both strategies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for adapting to climate change. The Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) simulates representative crop, beef or dairy farms over many years of weather to pred...

Projecting carbon footprint of Canadian dairy farms under future climate conditions with the integrated farm system model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dairy farms are an important sector of Canadian agriculture, and there is an on-going effort to assess their environmental impact. In Canada, like many northern areas of the world, climate change is expected to increase agricultural productivity. This will likely come along with changes in environme...

Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scallion, M.

2017-12-01

Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to include climate change education as part of a larger ecological exploration, giving students and teachers local context to this global issue and memorable outdoor hands-on experiences and student driven adaptation projects.

OBERON: OBliquity and Energy balance Run on N-body systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forgan, Duncan H.

2016-08-01

OBERON (OBliquity and Energy balance Run on N-body systems) models the climate of Earthlike planets under the effects of an arbitrary number and arrangement of other bodies, such as stars, planets and moons. The code, written in C++, simultaneously computes N body motions using a 4th order Hermite integrator, simulates climates using a 1D latitudinal energy balance model, and evolves the orbital spin of bodies using the equations of Laskar (1986a,b).

Multi-Resolution Climate Ensemble Parameter Analysis with Nested Parallel Coordinates Plots.

PubMed

Wang, Junpeng; Liu, Xiaotong; Shen, Han-Wei; Lin, Guang

2017-01-01

Due to the uncertain nature of weather prediction, climate simulations are usually performed multiple times with different spatial resolutions. The outputs of simulations are multi-resolution spatial temporal ensembles. Each simulation run uses a unique set of values for multiple convective parameters. Distinct parameter settings from different simulation runs in different resolutions constitute a multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space. Understanding the correlation between the different convective parameters, and establishing a connection between the parameter settings and the ensemble outputs are crucial to domain scientists. The multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space, however, presents a unique challenge to the existing correlation visualization techniques. We present Nested Parallel Coordinates Plot (NPCP), a new type of parallel coordinates plots that enables visualization of intra-resolution and inter-resolution parameter correlations. With flexible user control, NPCP integrates superimposition, juxtaposition and explicit encodings in a single view for comparative data visualization and analysis. We develop an integrated visual analytics system to help domain scientists understand the connection between multi-resolution convective parameters and the large spatial temporal ensembles. Our system presents intricate climate ensembles with a comprehensive overview and on-demand geographic details. We demonstrate NPCP, along with the climate ensemble visualization system, based on real-world use-cases from our collaborators in computational and predictive science.

Regional Approach for Linking Ecosystem Services and Livelihood Strategies Under Climate Change of Pastoral Communities in the Mongolian Steppe Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojima, D. S.; Galvin, K.; Togtohyn, C.

2012-12-01

Dramatic changes due to climate and land use dynamics in the Mongolian Plateau affecting ecosystem services and agro-pastoral systems in Mongolia. Recently, market forces and development strategies are affecting land and water resources of the pastoral communities which are being further stressed due to climatic changes. Evaluation of pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock and grassland ecosystem services, have demonstrated the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to climate change. Current social-ecological changes in ecosystem services are affecting land productivity and carrying capacity, land-atmosphere interactions, water resources, and livelihood strategies. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the social-economic forces. The analysis incorporates information about the social-economic transitions taking place in the region which affect land-use, food security, and ecosystem dynamics. The region of study extends from the Mongolian plateau in Mongolia. Our research indicate that sustainability of pastoral systems in the region needs to integrate the impact of climate change on ecosystem services with socio-economic changes shaping the livelihood strategies of pastoral systems in the region. Adaptation strategies which incorporate integrated analysis of landscape management and livelihood strategies provides a framework which links ecosystem services to critical resource assets. Analysis of the available livelihood assets provides insights to the adaptive capacity of various agents in a region or in a community. Sustainable development pathways which enable the development of these adaptive capacity elements will lead to more effective adaptive management strategies for pastoral land use and herder's living standards. Pastoralists will have the opportunity to utilize seasonal resources and enhance their ability to process and manufacture products from the available ecosystem services in these dynamic social-ecological systems.

Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker

2015-01-01

Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnosticmore » indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.« less

Strengthening Resiliency in Coastal Watersheds: An Ecosystem Services and Ecological Integrity Decision Support System.

EPA Science Inventory

To promote and strengthen the resiliency of coastal watersheds in the face of climate change and development, ecological outcomes as well as economic, social, and environmental justice issues need to be considered. An integrated assessment framework is being developed to help wat...

Late Noachian Climate Of Mars: Constraints From Valley Network System Formation Times And The Intermittencies (Episodic/Periodic And Punctuated).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James

2017-04-01

Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian (LN-EH) valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. To constrain options for the ambient Noachian climate, we examine estimates for time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Formation Times for VN, OBL, Deltas, Fans: A synthesis of required timescales show that even with the longest estimated continuous duration of VN formation/intermittencies, total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, <˜0.25% of the total Noachian. Intermittency/episodicity assumptions are climate-model dependent (e.g., most workers use Earth-like fluvial activity and intermittency). Noachian-Early Hesperian Climate Models: 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. Two subtypes: a) "Rainfall/Fluvial Erosion-Dominated Warm and Wet Model": "Rainfall and surface runoff" persist throughout Noachian to explain crater degradation, and a LN-EH short rapidly ending terminal epoch. b) "Recharge Evaporation/Evaporite Dominated Warm and Wet Model": Sustained period of equatorial/mid-latitude precipitation and a vertically integrated hydrological system driven by evaporative upwelling and fluctuating shallow water table playa environments account for sulfate evaporate environments at Meridiani Planum. Sustained temperatures >273 K are required for extended periods (107-108 years). 2) Cold and icy climate: Sustained background temperatures extremely low (MAT ˜225 K), cryosphere is globally continuous, hydrological system is horizontally stratified, separating groundwater system from surface; no combination of spin-axis/orbital perturbations can raise MAT to 273 K. Adiabatic cooling effects transfer water to high altitudes, leading to "Late Noachian Icy Highlands Model". VNS cannot form in this nominal climate environment without special circumstances (e.g., impacts or volcanic eruptions elevate of temperatures by >˜50 K to induce melting and fluvial/lacustrine activity). 3) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases: The climate is sustained cold/icy model, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins (say 25 K, to MAT 250 K), bringing annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K). Fluvial systems driven by episodic/periodic intermittency typically involve short intermittency time-scales (10-106 years) but require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) to be sustained for >0.4 x 109 years. Fluvial systems driven by punctuated intermittency typically involve short duration time-scales (10-105 years) but only require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) for the very short duration of the climatic impact of the punctuated event (102-105 years). We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with punctuated intermittency of warming and melting events is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

Integrating Climate Science, Marine Ecology, and Fisheries Economics to Predict the Effects of Climate Change on New England lobster Fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bris, A.; Pershing, A. J.; Holland, D. S.; Mills, K.; Sun, C. H. J.

2016-02-01

The Gulf of Maine and the northwest Atlantic shelf have experienced one of the fastest warming rates of the global ocean over the past decade, and concerns are growing about the long-term sustainability of the fishing industries in the region. The lucrative American lobster fishery occurs over a steep temperature gradient, providing a unique opportunity to evaluate the consequences of climate change and variability on marine socio-ecological systems. This study aims at developing an integrated climate, population dynamics, and fishery economics model to predict consequences of climate change on the American lobster fishery. In this talk, we first describe a mechanistic model that combines life-history theory and a size-spectrum approach to simulate the dynamics of the population. Results show that as temperature increases, early growth rate and predation on small individuals increases, while size-at-maturity, maximum length and predation on large individuals decreases, resulting in a lower recruitment in the southern New-England and higher recruitment in the northern Gulf of Maine. Second, we present an integrated fishery and economic module that links temperature to landings and price through its influence on catchability and abundance. Preliminary results show that temperature is positively correlated with landings and negatively correlated with price in the Gulf of Maine. Finally, we discuss how model simulations under various fishing effort, market and climate scenarios can be used to identify adaptation opportunities to improve the resilience of the fishery to climate change.

One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

2013-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of future climate mitigation strategies. We find substantial effects on key integrated assessment projections including the magnitude of emissions to mitigate, the economic value of ecosystem carbon storage, future land-use patterns, food prices and energy technology.

Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

2017-01-01

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

Integrated numerical modeling of a landslide early warning system in a context of adaptation to future climatic pressures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabarov, Nikolay; Huggel, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Ramírez, Juan Manuel

2010-05-01

Mountain regions are typically characterized by rugged terrain which is susceptible to different types of landslides during high-intensity precipitation. Landslides account for billions of dollars of damage and many casualties, and are expected to increase in frequency in the future due to a projected increase of precipitation intensity. Early warning systems (EWS) are thought to be a primary tool for related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation to extreme climatic events and hydro-meteorological hazards, including landslides. An EWS for hazards such as landslides consist of different components, including environmental monitoring instruments (e.g. rainfall or flow sensors), physical or empirical process models to support decision-making (warnings, evacuation), data and voice communication, organization and logistics-related procedures, and population response. Considering this broad range, EWS are highly complex systems, and it is therefore difficult to understand the effect of the different components and changing conditions on the overall performance, ultimately being expressed as human lives saved or structural damage reduced. In this contribution we present a further development of our approach to assess a landslide EWS in an integral way, both at the system and component level. We utilize a numerical model using 6 hour rainfall data as basic input. A threshold function based on a rainfall-intensity/duration relation was applied as a decision criterion for evacuation. Damage to infrastructure and human lives was defined as a linear function of landslide magnitude, with the magnitude modelled using a power function of landslide frequency. Correct evacuation was assessed with a ‘true' reference rainfall dataset versus a dataset of artificially reduced quality imitating the observation system component. Performance of the EWS using these rainfall datasets was expressed in monetary terms (i.e. damage related to false and correct evacuation). We applied this model to a landslide EWS in Colombia that is currently being implemented within a disaster prevention project. We evaluated the EWS against rainfall data with artificially introduced error and computed with multiple model runs the probabilistic damage functions depending on rainfall error. Then we modified the original precipitation pattern to reflect possible climatic changes e.g. change in annual precipitation as well as change in precipitation intensity with annual values remaining constant. We let the EWS model adapt for changed conditions to function optimally. Our results show that for the same errors in rainfall measurements the system's performance degrades with expected changing climatic conditions. The obtained results suggest that EWS cannot internally adapt to climate change and require exogenous adaptive measures to avoid increase in overall damage. The model represents a first attempt to integrally simulate and evaluate EWS under future possible climatic pressures. Future work will concentrate on refining model components and spatially explicit climate scenarios.

Improved Analysis of Earth System Models and Observations using Simple Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nadiga, B. T.; Urban, N. M.

2016-12-01

Earth system models (ESM) are the most comprehensive tools we have to study climate change and develop climate projections. However, the computational infrastructure required and the cost incurred in running such ESMs precludes direct use of such models in conjunction with a wide variety of tools that can further our understanding of climate. Here we are referring to tools that range from dynamical systems tools that give insight into underlying flow structure and topology to tools that come from various applied mathematical and statistical techniques and are central to quantifying stability, sensitivity, uncertainty and predictability to machine learning tools that are now being rapidly developed or improved. Our approach to facilitate the use of such models is to analyze output of ESM experiments (cf. CMIP) using a range of simpler models that consider integral balances of important quantities such as mass and/or energy in a Bayesian framework.We highlight the use of this approach in the context of the uptake of heat by the world oceans in the ongoing global warming. Indeed, since in excess of 90% of the anomalous radiative forcing due greenhouse gas emissions is sequestered in the world oceans, the nature of ocean heat uptake crucially determines the surface warming that is realized (cf. climate sensitivity). Nevertheless, ESMs themselves are never run long enough to directly assess climate sensitivity. So, we consider a range of models based on integral balances--balances that have to be realized in all first-principles based models of the climate system including the most detailed state-of-the art climate simulations. The models range from simple models of energy balance to those that consider dynamically important ocean processes such as the conveyor-belt circulation (Meridional Overturning Circulation, MOC), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and eddy mixing. Results from Bayesian analysis of such models using both ESM experiments and actual observations are presented. One such result points to the importance of direct sequestration of heat below 700 m, a process that is not allowed for in the simple models that have been traditionally used to deduce climate sensitivity.

Building integration of photovoltaic systems in cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athienitis, Andreas K.; Candanedo, José A.

2010-06-01

This paper presents some of the research activities on building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems developed by the Solar and Daylighting Laboratory at Concordia University. BIPV systems offer considerable advantages as compared to stand-alone PV installations. For example, BIPV systems can play a role as essential components of the building envelope. BIPV systems operate as distributed power generators using the most widely available renewable source. Since BIPV systems do not require additional space, they are especially appropriate for urban environments. BIPV/Thermal (BIPV/T) systems may use exterior air to extract useful heat from the PV panels, cooling them and thereby improving their electric performance. The recovered thermal energy can then be used for space heating and domestic hot water (DHW) heating, supporting the utilization of BIVP/T as an appropriate technology for cold climates. BIPV and BIPV/T systems are the subject of several ongoing research and demonstration projects (in both residential and commercial buildings) led by Concordia University. The concept of integrated building design and operation is at the centre of these efforts: BIPV and BIPV/T systems must be treated as part of a comprehensive strategy taking into account energy conservation measures, passive solar design, efficient lighting and HVAC systems, and integration of other renewable energy systems (solar thermal, heat pumps, etc.). Concordia Solar Laboratory performs fundamental research on heat transfer and modeling of BIPV/T systems, numerical and experimental investigations on BIPV and BIPV/T in building energy systems and non-conventional applications (building-attached greenhouses), and the design and optimization of buildings and communities.

Post-processing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts via Integrating Climate Indices and the Analog Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Wood, A.; Lee, H. S.; Wu, L.; Schaake, J. C.

2016-12-01

Seasonal precipitation forecasts are a primary driver for seasonal streamflow prediction that is critical for a range of water resources applications, such as reservoir operations and drought management. However, it is well known that seasonal precipitation forecasts from climate models are often biased and also too coarse in spatial resolution for hydrologic applications. Therefore, post-processing procedures such as downscaling and bias correction are often needed. In this presentation, we discuss results from a recent study that applies a two-step methodology to downscale and correct the ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS). First, CFS forecasts are downscaled and bias corrected using monthly reforecast analogs: we identify past precipitation forecasts that are similar to the current forecast, and then use the finer-scale observational analysis fields from the corresponding dates to represent the post-processed ensemble forecasts. Second, we construct the posterior distribution of forecast precipitation from the post-processed ensemble by integrating climate indices: a correlation analysis is performed to identify dominant climate indices for the study region, which are then used to weight the analysis analogs selected in the first step using a Bayesian approach. The methodology is applied to the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) and the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) regions for 1982-2015, using the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) precipitation as the analysis. The results from cross validation show that the post-processed CFS precipitation forecast are considerably more skillful than the raw CFS with the analog approach only. Integrating climate indices can further improve the skill if the number of ensemble members considered is large enough; however, the improvement is generally limited to the first couple of months when compared against climatology. Impacts of various factors such as ensemble size, lead time, and choice of climate indices will also be discussed.

Development of a Cloud Resolving Model for Heterogeneous Supercomputers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreepathi, S.; Norman, M. R.; Pal, A.; Hannah, W.; Ponder, C.

2017-12-01

A cloud resolving climate model is needed to reduce major systematic errors in climate simulations due to structural uncertainty in numerical treatments of convection - such as convective storm systems. This research describes the porting effort to enable SAM (System for Atmosphere Modeling) cloud resolving model on heterogeneous supercomputers using GPUs (Graphical Processing Units). We have isolated a standalone configuration of SAM that is targeted to be integrated into the DOE ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy) Earth System model. We have identified key computational kernels from the model and offloaded them to a GPU using the OpenACC programming model. Furthermore, we are investigating various optimization strategies intended to enhance GPU utilization including loop fusion/fission, coalesced data access and loop refactoring to a higher abstraction level. We will present early performance results, lessons learned as well as optimization strategies. The computational platform used in this study is the Summitdev system, an early testbed that is one generation removed from Summit, the next leadership class supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The system contains 54 nodes wherein each node has 2 IBM POWER8 CPUs and 4 NVIDIA Tesla P100 GPUs. This work is part of a larger project, ACME-MMF component of the U.S. Department of Energy(DOE) Exascale Computing Project. The ACME-MMF approach addresses structural uncertainty in cloud processes by replacing traditional parameterizations with cloud resolving "superparameterization" within each grid cell of global climate model. Super-parameterization dramatically increases arithmetic intensity, making the MMF approach an ideal strategy to achieve good performance on emerging exascale computing architectures. The goal of the project is to integrate superparameterization into ACME, and explore its full potential to scientifically and computationally advance climate simulation and prediction.

A Data Driven Framework for Integrating Regional Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lansing, C.; Kleese van Dam, K.; Liu, Y.; Elsethagen, T.; Guillen, Z.; Stephan, E.; Critchlow, T.; Gorton, I.

2012-12-01

There are increasing needs for research addressing complex climate sensitive issues of concern to decision-makers and policy planners at a regional level. Decisions about allocating scarce water across competing municipal, agricultural, and ecosystem demands is just one of the challenges ahead, along with decisions regarding competing land use priorities such as biofuels, food, and species habitat. Being able to predict the extent of future climate change in the context of introducing alternative energy production strategies requires a new generation of modeling capabilities. We will also need more complete representations of human systems at regional scales, incorporating the influences of population centers, land use, agriculture and existing and planned electrical demand and generation infrastructure. At PNNL we are working towards creating a first-of-a-kind capability known as the Integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM). The fundamental goal of the iRESM initiative is the critical analyses of the tradeoffs and consequences of decision and policy making for integrated human and environmental systems. This necessarily combines different scientific processes, bridging different temporal and geographic scales and resolving the semantic differences between them. To achieve this goal, iRESM is developing a modeling framework and supporting infrastructure that enable the scientific team to evaluate different scenarios in light of specific stakeholder questions such as "How do regional changes in mean climate states and climate extremes affect water storage and energy consumption and how do such decisions influence possible mitigation and carbon management schemes?" The resulting capability will give analysts a toolset to gain insights into how regional economies can respond to climate change mitigation policies and accelerated deployment of alternative energy technologies. The iRESM framework consists of a collection of coupled models working with high resolution data that can represent the climate, geography, economy, energy supply, and demand of a region under study; an integrated data management framework that captures information about models, model couplings (workflows), observational and derived data sets, numerical experiments, and the provenance metadata connecting them; and a collaborative environment that enables scientific users to explore the datasets, register models and codes, launch workflows, retrieve provenance, and analyze results. In this presentation we address the challenges of coupling heterogeneous codes and handling large data sets. We describe our integration approach, which is based on a loosely coupled software architecture that supports experimentation and evolution of models on different datasets. We present our software prototype and show the scalability of our approach to handle a large number ( > 17,000) of model runs and a significant quantity of data in the order of terabytes. The resulting environment is now used by domain scientists and has proven useful to improve productivity in the evolving development of iRESM model coupling.

Urbanism, climate change and health: systems approaches to governance.

PubMed

Capon, Anthony G; Synnott, Emma S; Holliday, Sue

2009-01-01

Effective action on climate change health impacts and vulnerability will require systems approaches and integrated policy and planning responses from a range of government agencies. Similar responses are needed to address other complex problems, such as the obesity epidemic. Local government, with its focus on the governance of place, will have a key role in responding to these convergent agendas. Industry can also be part of the solution - indeed it must be, because it has a lead role in relevant sectors. Understanding the co-benefits for health of climate mitigation actions will strengthen the case for early action. There is a need for improved decision support tools to inform urban governance. These tools should be based on a systems approach and should incorporate a spatial perspective.

Data and Model Integration Promoting Interdisciplinarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koike, T.

2014-12-01

It is very difficult to reflect accumulated subsystem knowledge into holistic knowledge. Knowledge about a whole system can rarely be introduced into a targeted subsystem. In many cases, knowledge in one discipline is inapplicable to other disciplines. We are far from resolving cross-disciplinary issues. It is critically important to establish interdisciplinarity so that scientific knowledge can transcend disciplines. We need to share information and develop knowledge interlinkages by building models and exchanging tools. We need to tackle a large increase in the volume and diversity of data from observing the Earth. The volume of data stored has exponentially increased. Previously, almost all of the large-volume data came from satellites, but model outputs occupy the largest volume in general. To address the large diversity of data, we should develop an ontology system for technical and geographical terms in coupling with a metadata design according to international standards. In collaboration between Earth environment scientists and IT group, we should accelerate data archiving by including data loading, quality checking and metadata registration, and enrich data-searching capability. DIAS also enables us to perform integrated research and realize interdisciplinarity. For example, climate change should be addressed in collaboration between the climate models, integrated assessment models including energy, economy, agriculture, health, and the models of adaptation, vulnerability, and human settlement and infrastructure. These models identify water as central to these systems. If a water expert can develop an interrelated system including each component, the integrated crisis can be addressed by collaboration with various disciplines. To realize this purpose, we are developing a water-related data- and model-integration system called a water cycle integrator (WCI).

Synthesizing late Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions: Lessons learned, common challenges, and implications for future research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodysill, J. R.

2017-12-01

Proxy-based reconstructions provide vital information for developing histories of environmental and climate changes. Networks of spatiotemporal paleoclimate information are powerful tools for understanding dynamical processes within the global climate system and improving model-based predictions of the patterns and magnitudes of climate changes at local- to global-scales. Compiling individual paleoclimate records and integrating reconstructed climate information in the context of an ensemble of multi-proxy records, which are fundamental for developing a spatiotemporal climate data network, are hindered by challenges related to data and information accessibility, chronological uncertainty, sampling resolution, climate proxy type, and differences between depositional environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group has been compiling and integrating multi-proxy paleoclimate data as part of an ongoing effort to synthesize Holocene climate records from North America. The USGS North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group recently completed a late Holocene hydroclimate synthesis for the North American continent using several proxy types from a range of depositional environments, including lakes, wetlands, coastal marine, and cave speleothems. Using new age-depth relationships derived from the Bacon software package, we identified century-scale patterns of wetness and dryness for the past 2000 years with an age uncertainty-based confidence rating for each proxy record. Additionally, for highly-resolved North American lake sediment records, we computed average late Holocene sediment deposition rates and identified temporal trends in age uncertainty that are common to multiple lakes. This presentation addresses strengths and challenges of compiling and integrating data from different paleoclimate archives, with a particular focus on lake sediments, which may inform and guide future paleolimnological studies.

Climate: Into the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burroughs, William

2003-08-01

Toward the end of the twentieth century, it became evident to professionals working within the meterological arena that the world's climate system was showing signs of change that could not be adequately explained in terms of natural variation. Since that time there has been an increasing recognition that the climate system is changing as a result of human industries and lifestyles, and that the outcomes may prove catastrophic to the world's escalating population. Compiled by an international team formed under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Climate: Into the 21st Century features an unrivalled collection of essays by the world's leading meteorological experts. These fully integrated contributions provide a perspective of the global climate system across the twentieth century, and describe some of the most arresting and extreme climatic events and their effects that have occurred during that time. In addition, the book traces the development of our capabilities to observe and monitor the climate system, and outlines our understanding of the predictability of climate on time-scales of months and longer. It concludes with a summary of the prospects for applying the twentieth century climate experience in order to benefit society in the twenty-first century. Lavishly illustrated in color, Climate is an accessible acccount of the challenges that climate poses at the start of the twenty-first century. Filled with fascinating facts and diagrams, it is written for a wide audience and will captivate the general reader interested in climate issues, and will be a valuable teaching resource. William Burroughs is a successful science author of books on climate, including Weather (Time Life, 2000), and Climate Change: A Multidisciplinary Approach (2001), Does the Weather Really Matter? (1997) and The Climate Revealed (1999), all published by Cambridge University Press.

Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.

2013-12-01

The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have formed the basis for much of the current scientific understanding of future climate change impacts and mitigation. However, the emissions scenarios underlying the RCPs were produced by integrated assessment models that did not include impacts of future climate change on the modeled evolution of the agricultural and energy systems. Given the prominent role of bioenergy in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, and given the importance of land-use-related emissions in determining future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is possible that agricultural climate impacts may cause significant changes to the means and costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This study builds on several international modeling exercises aimed at improving understanding of climate change impacts--CMIP-5 and ISI-MIP--that have generated global gridded climate impacts on yields of major agricultural crops in each of the four RCPs. We use the climate outcomes from the HadGEM2-ES climate model, and the agricultural yield outcomes from the LPJmL crop growth model to inform inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model, allowing analysis of how agricultural climate impacts may affect the long-term global and regional strategies for achieving the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of the RCPs. Our results indicate that for this combination of models and emissions scenarios, strongly negative climate impacts on several major commodity classes--prominently cereals and oil seeds, and particularly in the high-radiative-forcing RCPs--lead to a long-term increase in cropland and therefore land-use-related CO2 emissions. All else equal, this increases the emissions mitigation burden on the rest of the system, and therefore increases total net costs of emissions mitigation. However, the future climate change impacts on C4 bioenergy crops tend to be positive, limiting the shock of agricultural climate impacts on the modeled energy supply and demand systems. As well, endogenous adaptation in the agricultural sector--mostly through inter-regional shifting in production and changes in trade patterns--limits the shock of climate impacts to consumers. Global average climate impacts on wheat yields for the four emissions scenarios, using base-year weights (asterisks) and using the endogenous land allocations in GCAM (filled diamonds)

OpenClimateGIS - A Web Service Providing Climate Model Data in Commonly Used Geospatial Formats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, T. A.; Koziol, B. W.; Rood, R. B.

2011-12-01

The goal of the OpenClimateGIS project is to make climate model datasets readily available in commonly used, modern geospatial formats used by GIS software, browser-based mapping tools, and virtual globes.The climate modeling community typically stores climate data in multidimensional gridded formats capable of efficiently storing large volumes of data (such as netCDF, grib) while the geospatial community typically uses flexible vector and raster formats that are capable of storing small volumes of data (relative to the multidimensional gridded formats). OpenClimateGIS seeks to address this difference in data formats by clipping climate data to user-specified vector geometries (i.e. areas of interest) and translating the gridded data on-the-fly into multiple vector formats. The OpenClimateGIS system does not store climate data archives locally, but rather works in conjunction with external climate archives that expose climate data via the OPeNDAP protocol. OpenClimateGIS provides a RESTful API web service for accessing climate data resources via HTTP, allowing a wide range of applications to access the climate data.The OpenClimateGIS system has been developed using open source development practices and the source code is publicly available. The project integrates libraries from several other open source projects (including Django, PostGIS, numpy, Shapely, and netcdf4-python).OpenClimateGIS development is supported by a grant from NOAA's Climate Program Office.

Cross-scale phenological data integration to benefit resource management and monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richardson, Andrew D.; Weltzin, Jake F.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Climate change is presenting new challenges for natural resource managers charged with maintaining sustainable ecosystems and landscapes. Phenology, a branch of science dealing with seasonal natural phenomena (bird migration or plant flowering in response to weather changes, for example), bridges the gap between the biosphere and the climate system. Phenological processes operate across scales that span orders of magnitude—from leaf to globe and from days to seasons—making phenology ideally suited to multiscale, multiplatform data integration and delivery of information at spatial and temporal scales suitable to inform resource management decisions.A workshop report: Workshop held June 2016 to investigate opportunities and challenges facing multi-scale, multi-platform integration of phenological data to support natural resource management decision-making.

Watershed scale response to climate change--Yampa River Basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; Battaglin, William A.; Markstrom, Steven L.

2012-01-01

General Circulation Model simulations of future climate through 2099 project a wide range of possible scenarios. To determine the sensitivity and potential effect of long-term climate change on the freshwater resources of the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey Global Change study, "An integrated watershed scale response to global change in selected basins across the United States" was started in 2008. The long-term goal of this national study is to provide the foundation for hydrologically based climate change studies across the nation. Fourteen basins for which the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been calibrated and evaluated were selected as study sites. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land use on streamflow and general basin hydrology. Output from five General Circulation Model simulations and four emission scenarios were used to develop an ensemble of climate-change scenarios for each basin. These ensembles were simulated with the corresponding Precipitation Runoff Modeling System model. This fact sheet summarizes the hydrologic effect and sensitivity of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System simulations to climate change for the Yampa River Basin at Steamboat Springs, Colorado.

Forest Health Monitoring and Forest Inventory Analysis programs monitor climate change effects in forest ecosystems

Treesearch

Kenneth W. Stolte

2001-01-01

The Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) and Forest Inventory and Analyses (FIA) programs are integrated bilogical monitoring systems that use nationally standardized methods to evaluate and report on the health and sustainability of forest ecosystems in the United States. Many of the anticipated changes in forest ecosystems from climate change were also issues addressed in...

From transient to steady-state response of ecosystems to atmospheric CO2-enrichment and global climate change: conceptual challenges and need for an integrated approach

Treesearch

Lindsey E. Rustad

2006-01-01

Evidence continues to accumulate that humans are significantly increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, resulting in unprecedented changes in the global climate system. Experimental manipulations of terrestrial ecosystems and their components have greatly increased our understanding of short-term responses to these global perturbations and have...

Modeling physical and chemical climate of the northeastern United States for a geographic information system

Treesearch

Scott V. Ollinger; John D. Aber; Anthony C. Federer; Gary M. Lovett; Jennifer M. Ellis

1995-01-01

A model of physical and chemical climate was developed for New York and New England that can be used in a GIs for integration with ecosystem models. The variables included are monthly average maximum and minimum daily temperatures, precipitation, humidity, and solar radiation, as well as annual atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen. Equations generated from...

PRMS-IV, the precipitation-runoff modeling system, version 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, Steven L.; Regan, R. Steve; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Webb, Richard M.; Payn, Robert A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

2015-01-01

Computer models that simulate the hydrologic cycle at a watershed scale facilitate assessment of variability in climate, biota, geology, and human activities on water availability and flow. This report describes an updated version of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of various combinations of climate and land use on streamflow and general watershed hydrology. Several new model components were developed, and all existing components were updated, to enhance performance and supportability. This report describes the history, application, concepts, organization, and mathematical formulation of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System and its model components. This updated version provides improvements in (1) system flexibility for integrated science, (2) verification of conservation of water during simulation, (3) methods for spatial distribution of climate boundary conditions, and (4) methods for simulation of soil-water flow and storage.

Integrating observation and statistical forecasts over sub-Saharan Africa to support Famine Early Warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Chris; Verdin, James P.; Husak, Gregory

2007-01-01

Famine early warning in Africa presents unique challenges and rewards. Hydrologic extremes must be tracked and anticipated over complex and changing climate regimes. The successful anticipation and interpretation of hydrologic shocks can initiate effective government response, saving lives and softening the impacts of droughts and floods. While both monitoring and forecast technologies continue to advance, discontinuities between monitoring and forecast systems inhibit effective decision making. Monitoring systems typically rely on high resolution satellite remote-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and rainfall imagery. Forecast systems provide information on a variety of scales and formats. Non-meteorologists are often unable or unwilling to connect the dots between these disparate sources of information. To mitigate these problem researchers at UCSB's Climate Hazard Group, NASA GIMMS and USGS/EROS are implementing a NASA-funded integrated decision support system that combines the monitoring of precipitation and NDVI with statistical one-to-three month forecasts. We present the monitoring/forecast system, assess its accuracy, and demonstrate its application in food insecure sub-Saharan Africa.

Variance decomposition shows the importance of human-climate feedbacks in the Earth system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.

2017-12-01

The human and Earth systems are intricately linked: climate influences agricultural production, renewable energy potential, and water availability, for example, while anthropogenic emissions from industry and land use change alter temperature and precipitation. Such feedbacks have the potential to significantly alter future climate change. Current climate change projections contain significant uncertainties, however, and because Earth System Models do not generally include dynamic human (demography, economy, energy, water, land use) components, little is known about how climate feedbacks contribute to that uncertainty. Here we use variance decomposition of a novel coupled human-earth system model to show that the influence of human-climate feedbacks can be as large as 17% of the total variance in the near term for global mean temperature rise, and 11% in the long term for cropland area. The near-term contribution of energy and land use feedbacks to the climate on global mean temperature rise is as large as that from model internal variability, a factor typically considered in modeling studies. Conversely, the contribution of climate feedbacks to cropland extent, while non-negligible, is less than that from socioeconomics, policy, or model. Previous assessments have largely excluded these feedbacks, with the climate community focusing on uncertainty due to internal variability, scenario, and model and the integrated assessment community focusing on uncertainty due to socioeconomics, technology, policy, and model. Our results set the stage for a new generation of models and hypothesis testing to determine when and how bidirectional feedbacks between human and Earth systems should be considered in future assessments of climate change.

Seasonal Prediction of Taiwan's Streamflow Using Teleconnection Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chia-Jeng; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2017-04-01

Seasonal streamflow as an integrated response to complex hydro-climatic processes can be subject to activity of prevailing weather systems potentially modulated by large-scale climate oscillations (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO). To develop a seamless seasonal forecasting system in Taiwan, this study assesses how significant Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow in different seasons correlate with selected teleconnection patterns. Long-term precipitation and streamflow data in three major precipitation seasons, namely the spring rains (February to April), Mei-Yu (May and June), and typhoon (July to September) seasons, are derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream catchments in Taiwan. The three seasons depict a complete wet period of Taiwan as well as many regions bearing similar climatic conditions in East Asia. Lagged correlation analysis is then performed to investigate how the precipitation and streamflow data correlate with predominant teleconnection indices at varied lead times. Teleconnection indices are selected only if they show certain linkage with weather systems and activity in the three seasons based on previous literature. For instance, the ENSO and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, proven to influence East Asian climate across seasons and summer typhoon activity, respectively, are included in the list of climate indices for correlation analysis. Significant correlations found between Taiwan's precipitation and streamflow and teleconnection indices are further examined by a climate regime shift (CRS) test to identify any abrupt changes in the correlations. The understanding of existing CRS is useful for informing the forecasting system of the changes in the predictor-predictand relationship. To evaluate prediction skill in the three seasons and skill differences between precipitation and streamflow, hindcasting experiments of precipitation and streamflow are conducted using stepwise linear regression models. Discussion and suggestions for coping with extreme events in empirical seasonal predictions are also carried out. Findings from this work will contribute to the development of an integrated water resources planning and management system.

Climate Discovery: Integrating Research With Exhibit, Public Tours, K-12, and Web-based EPO Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, S. Q.; Carbone, L.; Gardiner, L.; Johnson, R.; Russell, R.; Advisory Committee, S.; Ammann, C.; Lu, G.; Richmond, A.; Maute, A.; Haller, D.; Conery, C.; Bintner, G.

2005-12-01

The Climate Discovery Exhibit at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesa Lab provides an exciting conceptual outline for the integration of several EPO activities with other well-established NCAR educational resources and programs. The exhibit is organized into four topic areas intended to build understanding among NCAR's 80,000 annual visitors, including 10,000 school children, about Earth system processes and scientific methods contributing to a growing body of knowledge about climate and global change. These topics include: 'Sun-Earth Connections,' 'Climate Now,' 'Climate Past,' and 'Climate Future.' Exhibit text, graphics, film and electronic media, and interactives are developed and updated through collaborations between NCAR's climate research scientists and staff in the Office of Education and Outreach (EO) at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). With funding from NCAR, paleoclimatologists have contributed data and ideas for a new exhibit Teachers' Guide unit about 'Climate Past.' This collection of middle-school level, standards-aligned lessons are intended to help students gain understanding about how scientists use proxy data and direct observations to describe past climates. Two NASA EPO's have funded the development of 'Sun-Earth Connection' lessons, visual media, and tips for scientists and teachers. Integrated with related content and activities from the NASA-funded Windows to the Universe web site, these products have been adapted to form a second unit in the Climate Discovery Teachers' Guide about the Sun's influence on Earth's climate. Other lesson plans, previously developed by on-going efforts of EO staff and NSF's previously-funded Project Learn program are providing content for a third Teachers' Guide unit on 'Climate Now' - the dynamic atmospheric and geological processes that regulate Earth's climate. EO has plans to collaborate with NCAR climatologists and computer modelers in the next year to develop lessons and ancillary exhibit interactives and visualizations for the final Teachers' Guide unit about 'Climate Future.' Units developed so far are available in downloadable format on the NCAR EO and Windows to the Universe web sites for dissemination to educators and the general public public. Those web sites are, respectively, (http://eo.ucar.edu/educators/ClimateDiscovery) and (http://www.windows.ucar.edu). Encouragement from funding agencies to integrate and relate resources and growing pressure to implement efficiencies in educational programs have created excellent opportunities which will be described from the viewpoints of EO staff and scientists'. Challenges related to public and student perceptions about climate and global change, the scientific endeavor, and how to establish successful dialogues between educators and scientists will also be discussed.

Building America Case Study: Advanced Extended Plate and Beam Wall System in a Cold-Climate House, Mount Joy, Pennsylvania

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

This report presents the design and evaluation of a innovative wall system. This highly insulated (high-R) light-frame wall system for use above grade in residential buildings is referred to as Extended Plate & Beam (EP&B). The EP&B design is the first of its kind to be featured in a new construction test house (NCTH) for the DOE Building America program. The EP&B wall design integrates standard building methods and common building products to construct a high-R wall that minimizes transition risks and costs to builders. The EP&B design combines optimized framing with integrated rigid foam sheathing to increase the wallmore » system's R-value and reduce thermal bridging. The foam sheathing is installed between the wall studs and structural wood sheathing. The exterior wood sheathing is attached directly to a framing extension formed by extended top and bottom plates. The exterior wood sheathing can dry to the exterior and provides bracing, a clear drainage plane and flashing surface for window and door openings, and a nailing surface for siding attachment. With support of the DOE Building America program, Home Innovation Research Labs partnered with Lancaster County Career and Technology Center (LCCTC) to build a NCTH in Lancaster, PA to demonstrate the EP&B wall design in a cold climate (IECC climate zone 5A). The results of the study confirmed the benefits of the systems and the viability of its integration into the house construction process.« less

Heinrich Events as an integral part of glacial-interglacial climate dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barker, S.; Knorr, G.; Zhang, X.; Gong, X.; Lohmann, G.; Bazin, L.

2017-12-01

Since their discovery in the 1980s Heinrich Events have provided a playground for climate scientists trying to understand the interactions between ice sheets and the ocean. Subsequently it has become clear that these interactions extend to almost all parts of the global climate system, from temperature, winds and rainfall to deep ocean currents and atmospheric CO2. Furthermore it remains unclear as to whether these dramatic events are a cause or consequence (or both) of regional to global perturbations in a range of parameters, including meridional overturning circulation within the Atlantic. Here we will discuss some of these aspects to highlight ongoing and future research related to Heinrich events and abrupt change more generally. We will discuss some of the possible triggers for H-events, including abrupt versus more gradual forcing mechanisms and conversely the potential influence of such events on the wider climate system, including deglacial climate change.

Climate Narratives: Combing multiple sources of information to develop risk management strategies for a municipal water utility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D. N.; Basdekas, L.; Rajagopalan, B.; Stewart, N.

2013-12-01

Municipal water utilities often develop Integrated Water Resource Plans (IWRP), with the goal of providing a reliable, sustainable water supply to customers in a cost-effective manner. Colorado Springs Utilities, a 5-service provider (potable and waste water, solid waste, natural gas and electricity) in Colorado USA, recently undertook an IWRP. where they incorporated water supply, water demand, water quality, infrastructure reliability, environmental protection, and other measures within the context of complex water rights, such as their critically important 'exchange potential'. The IWRP noted that an uncertain climate was one of the greatest sources of uncertainty to achieving a sustainable water supply to a growing community of users. We describe how historic drought, paleo-climate, and climate change projections were blended together into climate narratives that informed a suite of water resource systems models used by the utility to explore the vulnerabilities of their water systems.

NOAA Climate Program Office Contributions to National ESPC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, W.; Huang, J.; Mariotti, A.; Archambault, H. M.; Barrie, D.; Lucas, S. E.; Mathis, J. T.; Legler, D. M.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Nierenberg, C.; Jones, H.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Carman, J.

2016-12-01

NOAA is one of five federal agencies (DOD, DOE, NASA, NOAA, and NSF) which signed an updated charter in 2016 to partner on the National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). Situated within NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) programs contribute significantly to the National ESPC goals and activities. This presentation will provide an overview of CPO contributions to National ESPC. First, we will discuss selected CPO research and transition activities that directly benefit the ESPC coupled model prediction capability, including The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal prediction system The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) project to test real-time subseasonal ensemble prediction systems. Improvements to the NOAA operational Climate Forecast System (CFS), including software infrastructure and data assimilation. Next, we will show how CPO's foundational research activities are advancing future ESPC capabilities. Highlights will include: The Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) to provide the basis for predicting climate on subseasonal to decadal timescales. Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) processes and predictability studies to improve understanding, modeling and prediction of the MJO. An Arctic Research Program to address urgent needs for advancing monitoring and prediction capabilities in this major area of concern. Advances towards building an experimental multi-decadal prediction system through studies on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Finally, CPO has embraced Integrated Information Systems (IIS's) that build on the innovation of programs such as the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) to develop and deliver end to end environmental information for key societal challenges (e.g. extreme heat; coastal flooding). These contributions will help the National ESPC better understand and address societal needs and decision support requirements.

Informing climate-related decisions in complex river basins: A comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Bark, R. H.; Maia, R.; Udall, B.

2010-12-01

Integrated water resources management provides an important governance framework to achieve climate-related adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. Adaptation includes technical changes that improve water use efficiency, early warning, demand management (e.g. through metering and pricing), and institutional changes that improve the tradability of water rights. Supply-side strategies generally involve increases in storage capacity, abstraction from watercourses, and water transfers. Incentives for improving water-use efficiency, hold considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses. However, conflicts exist between processes and goals of water management and governance. These militate against the effectiveness of using scientific information to meet short-term needs in the context of reducing longer-term vulnerabilities such as for “increasing water supply while meeting environmental needs.” A complete analysis of the effects of climate change on human water uses would consider cross-sector interactions, including the impacts of transfers of the use of water from one sector to another. In this presentation we will review the challenges and lessons provided in water resources management in the context of a changing climate. Lessons are drawn from watersheds around the world including the Colorado, Columbia, Murray-Darling, Guadiana and others. We explore how watershed managers and researchers are attempting to address the risks associated with climatic change and potential surprises. In spite of numerous climate impacts studies the management of the cumulative impacts of extremes (droughts, floods etc.) remains reactive and crisis-driven. Most recommendations stay within the applied sciences realm of technological interventions and supply driven approaches. Clearly more is needed to inform an integrated watershed management approaches in which adaptive management functions as an operational tool for learning. The barriers to implementing adaptation measures include the inability of some natural systems to adapt at the rate of combined demographic pressures and climate, incomplete understanding and quantifying of water demands, and impediments to the flow of timely and reliable knowledge and information relevant for decision makers. Mechanisms to expand this range of choice include: Anticipatory coordination within development plans (e.g. adaptive management within integrated watershed and coastal zone plans). Developing usable climate risk management triggers for early warning of potential conflicts in agriculture, water, energy, health, environment , and coastal zones, including a mixed portfolio of past data and scenario-based approaches Developing and employing water efficient technologies. Actively engaging communities and states in mainstreaming climate information such as in the development of scenarios that link climate and development goals Future needs include exploration of alternate integration models and overlying policy structures that could, together, facilitate and sustain shared learning as climate varies and change

Climate change, water security and the need for integrated policy development: the case of on-farm infrastructure investment in the Australian irrigation sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraseni, T. N.; Mushtaq, S.; Reardon-Smith, K.

2012-09-01

The Australian Government is currently addressing the challenge of increasing water scarcity through significant on-farm infrastructure investment to facilitate the adoption of new water-efficient pressurized irrigation systems. However, it is highly likely that conversion to these systems will increase on-farm energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, suggesting potential conflicts in terms of mitigation and adaptation policies. This study explored the trade-offs associated with the adoption of more water efficient but energy-intensive irrigation technologies by developing an integrated assessment framework. Integrated analysis of five case studies revealed trade-offs between water security and environmental security when conversion to pressurized irrigation systems was evaluated in terms of fuel and energy-related emissions, except in cases where older hand-shift sprinkler irrigation systems were replaced. These results suggest that priority should be given, in implementing on-farm infrastructure investment policy, to replacing inefficient and energy-intensive sprinkler irrigation systems such as hand-shift and roll-line. The results indicated that associated changes in the use of agricultural machinery and agrochemicals may also be important. The findings of this study support the use of an integrated approach to avoid possible conflicts in designing national climate change mitigation and adaptation policies, both of which are being developed in Australia.

Utilizing Climate Forecasts for Improving Water and Power Systems Coordination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Queiroz, A.; Patskoski, J.; Mahinthakumar, K.; DeCarolis, J.

2016-12-01

Climate forecasts, typically monthly-to-seasonal precipitation forecasts, are commonly used to develop streamflow forecasts for improving reservoir management. Irrespective of their high skill in forecasting, temperature forecasts in developing power demand forecasts are not often considered along with streamflow forecasts for improving water and power systems coordination. In this study, we consider a prototype system to analyze the utility of climate forecasts, both precipitation and temperature, for improving water and power systems coordination. The prototype system, a unit-commitment model that schedules power generation from various sources, is considered and its performance is compared with an energy system model having an equivalent reservoir representation. Different skill sets of streamflow forecasts and power demand forecasts are forced on both water and power systems representations for understanding the level of model complexity required for utilizing monthly-to-seasonal climate forecasts to improve coordination between these two systems. The analyses also identify various decision-making strategies - forward purchasing of fuel stocks, scheduled maintenance of various power systems and tradeoff on water appropriation between hydropower and other uses - in the context of various water and power systems configurations. Potential application of such analyses for integrating large power systems with multiple river basins is also discussed.

[Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

PubMed

Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

2012-11-01

Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

A Water Resources Management Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts in North-Patagonia, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucciarelli, L. F.; Losano, F. T.; Marizza, M.; Cello, P.; Forni, L.; Young, C. A.; Girardin, L. O.; Nadal, G.; Lallana, F.; Godoy, S.; Vallejos, R.

2014-12-01

Most recently developed climate scenarios indicate a potential future increase in water stress in the region of Comahue, located in the North-Patagonia, Argentina. This region covers about 140,000 km2 where the Limay River and the Neuquén River converge into the Negro River, constituting the largest integrated basins in Argentina providing various uses of water resources: a) hydropower generation, contributing 15% of the national electricity market; b) fruit-horticultural products for local markets and export; c) human and industrial water supply; d) mining and oil exploitation, including Vaca Muerta, second world largest reserves of shale gas and fourth world largest reserves of shale-oil. The span of multiple jurisdictions and the convergence of various uses of water resources are a challenge for integrated understanding of economically and politically driven resource use activities on the natural system. The impacts of climate change on the system could lead to water resource conflicts between the different political actors and stakeholders. This paper presents the results of a hydrological simulation of the Limay river and Neuquén river basins using WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) considering the operation of artificial reservoirs located downstream at a monthly time step. This study aims to support policy makers via integrated tools for water-energy planning under climate uncertainties, and to facilitate the formulation of water policy-related actions for future water stress adaptation. The value of the integrated resource use model is that it can support local policy makers understand the implications of resource use trade-offs under a changing climate: 1) water availability to meet future growing demand for irrigated areas; 2) water supply for hydropower production; 3) increasing demand of water for mining and extraction of unconventional oil; 4) potential resource use conflicts and impacts on vulnerable populations.

Improving Decision-Making Activities for Meningitis and Malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceccato, P.; Trzaska, S.; Perez, C.; Kalashnikova, O. V.; del Corral, J.; Cousin, R.; Blumenthal, M. B.; Connor, S.; Thomson, M. C.

2012-12-01

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use, and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular Meningitis and Malaria. In this paper we present the new and improved products that have been developed for monitoring dust, temperature, rainfall and vectorial capacity model for monitoring and forecasting risks of Meningitis and Malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

Thermal Environments. Educational Facilities Review Series Number 17.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baas, Alan M.

This review surveys documents and journal articles previously announced in RIE and CIJE that deal with climate control, integrated thermal and luminous systems, total energy systems, and current trends in school air conditioning. The literature cited indicates that selection of thermal systems must take into account longterm operating costs in…

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders.

PubMed

Challinor, Andy J; Adger, W Neil; Benton, Tim G; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

2018-06-13

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment. © 2018 The Author(s).

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Challinor, Andy J.; Adger, W. Neil; Benton, Tim G.; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

2018-06-01

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.

Building climate adaptation capabilities through technology and community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, D.; McWhirter, J.; Intsiful, J. D.; Cozzini, S.

2011-12-01

To effectively plan for adaptation to changes in climate, decision makers require infrastructure and tools that will provide them with timely access to current and future climate information. For example, climate scientists and operational forecasters need to access global and regional model projections and current climate information that they can use to prepare monitoring products and reports and then publish these for the decision makers. Through the UNDP African Adaption Programme, an infrastructure is being built across Africa that will provide multi-tiered access to such information. Web accessible servers running RAMADDA, an open source content management system for geoscience information, will provide access to the information at many levels: from the raw and processed climate model output to real-time climate conditions and predictions to documents and presentation for government officials. Output from regional climate models (e.g. RegCM4) and downscaled global climate models will be accessible through RAMADDA. The Integrated Data Viewer (IDV) is being used by scientists to create visualizations that assist the understanding of climate processes and projections, using the data on these as well as external servers. Since RAMADDA is more than a data server, it is also being used as a publishing platform for the generated material that will be available and searchable by the decision makers. Users can wade through the enormous volumes of information and extract subsets for their region or project of interest. Participants from 20 countries attended workshops at ICTP during 2011. They received training on setting up and installing the servers and necessary software and are now working on deploying the systems in their respective countries. This is the first time an integrated and comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation has been widely applied in Africa. It is expected that this infrastructure will enhance North-South collaboration and improve the delivery of technical support and services. This improved infrastructure will enhance the capacity of countries to provide a wide range of robust products and services in a timely manner.

Back to the roots: the integration of a constructed wetland into a recirculating hatchery - a case study.

PubMed

Buřič, Miloš; Bláhovec, Josef; Kouřil, Jan

2015-01-01

Aquaculture is currently one of the fastest growing food-producing sectors, accounting for around 50% of the world's food fish. Limited resources, together with climatic change, have stimulated the search for solutions to support and sustain the production of fish as a nutritious food. The integration of a constructed wetland (CW) into a recirculating hatchery (RHS) was evaluated with respect to its economic feasibility and environmental impact. The outcome of eight production cycles showed the potential of CW integration for expanded production without increased operation costs or environmental load. Concretely, the use of constructed wetland allows the rearing about 40% more fish biomass, resulting in higher production and profitability. The low requirements for space, fresh water, and energy enable the establishment of such systems almost anywhere. Constructed wetlands could enhance the productivity of existing small scale facilities, as well as larger systems, to address economic and environmental issues in aquaculture. Such systems have potential to be sustainable in the context of possible future climate change and resource limitations.

Back to the Roots: The Integration of a Constructed Wetland into a Recirculating Hatchery - A Case Study

PubMed Central

Buřič, Miloš; Bláhovec, Josef; Kouřil, Jan

2015-01-01

Aquaculture is currently one of the fastest growing food-producing sectors, accounting for around 50% of the world's food fish. Limited resources, together with climatic change, have stimulated the search for solutions to support and sustain the production of fish as a nutritious food. The integration of a constructed wetland (CW) into a recirculating hatchery (RHS) was evaluated with respect to its economic feasibility and environmental impact. The outcome of eight production cycles showed the potential of CW integration for expanded production without increased operation costs or environmental load. Concretely, the use of constructed wetland allows the rearing about 40% more fish biomass, resulting in higher production and profitability. The low requirements for space, fresh water, and energy enable the establishment of such systems almost anywhere. Constructed wetlands could enhance the productivity of existing small scale facilities, as well as larger systems, to address economic and environmental issues in aquaculture. Such systems have potential to be sustainable in the context of possible future climate change and resource limitations. PMID:25853416

From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

2014-11-27

Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessmentmore » Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.« less

Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lontzek, Thomas S.; Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2015-05-01

Perhaps the most `dangerous’ aspect of future climate change is the possibility that human activities will push parts of the climate system past tipping points, leading to irreversible impacts. The likelihood of such large-scale singular events is expected to increase with global warming, but is fundamentally uncertain. A key question is how should the uncertainty surrounding tipping events affect climate policy? We address this using a stochastic integrated assessment model, based on the widely used deterministic DICE model. The temperature-dependent likelihood of tipping is calibrated using expert opinions, which we find to be internally consistent. The irreversible impacts of tipping events are assumed to accumulate steadily over time (rather than instantaneously), consistent with scientific understanding. Even with conservative assumptions about the rate and impacts of a stochastic tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by ~50%. For a plausibly rapid, high-impact tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by >200%. The additional carbon tax to delay climate tipping grows at only about half the rate of the baseline carbon tax. This implies that the effective discount rate for the costs of stochastic climate tipping is much lower than the discount rate for deterministic climate damages. Our results support recent suggestions that the costs of carbon emission used to inform policy are being underestimated, and that uncertain future climate damages should be discounted at a low rate.

The Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM) v1.0: an extensible and fully documented open-source re-implementation of the Bern reduced-form model for global carbon cycle-climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strassmann, Kuno M.; Joos, Fortunat

2018-05-01

The Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM) is a free open-source re-implementation of a reduced-form carbon cycle-climate model which has been used widely in previous scientific work and IPCC assessments. BernSCM represents the carbon cycle and climate system with a small set of equations for the heat and carbon budget, the parametrization of major nonlinearities, and the substitution of complex component systems with impulse response functions (IRFs). The IRF approach allows cost-efficient yet accurate substitution of detailed parent models of climate system components with near-linear behavior. Illustrative simulations of scenarios from previous multimodel studies show that BernSCM is broadly representative of the range of the climate-carbon cycle response simulated by more complex and detailed models. Model code (in Fortran) was written from scratch with transparency and extensibility in mind, and is provided open source. BernSCM makes scientifically sound carbon cycle-climate modeling available for many applications. Supporting up to decadal time steps with high accuracy, it is suitable for studies with high computational load and for coupling with integrated assessment models (IAMs), for example. Further applications include climate risk assessment in a business, public, or educational context and the estimation of CO2 and climate benefits of emission mitigation options.

Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-04-01

The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical, future energy demand, and mitigation technology uncertainties. This information provides central information for policy making, since it helps to understand the relationship between mitigation costs and their potential to reduce the risk of exceeding 2°C, or other temperature limits like 3°C or 1.5°C, under a wide range of scenarios.

Urban drainage system planning and design--challenges with climate change and urbanization: a review.

PubMed

Yazdanfar, Zeinab; Sharma, Ashok

2015-01-01

Urban drainage systems are in general failing in their functions mainly due to non-stationary climate and rapid urbanization. As these systems are becoming less efficient, issues such as sewer overflows and increase in urban flooding leading to surge in pollutant loads to receiving water bodies are becoming pervasive rapidly. A comprehensive investigation is required to understand these factors impacting the functioning of urban drainage, which vary spatially and temporally and are more complex when weaving together. It is necessary to establish a cost-effective, integrated planning and design framework for every local area by incorporating fit for purpose alternatives. Carefully selected adaptive measures are required for the provision of sustainable drainage systems to meet combined challenges of climate change and urbanization. This paper reviews challenges associated with urban drainage systems and explores limitations and potentials of different adaptation alternatives. It is hoped that the paper would provide drainage engineers, water planners, and decision makers with the state of the art information and technologies regarding adaptation options to increase drainage systems efficiency under changing climate and urbanization.

Ecosystems and Human Health: Meeting Challenges through Integrated Research and Policy

EPA Science Inventory

Human activity is transforming the structure and function of Earth’s natural systems including its land cover, rivers, oceans, biogeochemical cycles, and climate system.  As this transformation accelerates, there is growing evidence that changes in the state of natural...

Biomass and fire dynamics in a temperate forest-grassland mosaic: Integrating multi-species herbivory, climate, and fire with the FireBGCv2/GrazeBGC system

Treesearch

Robert A. Riggs; Robert E. Keane; Norm Cimon; Rachel Cook; Lisa Holsinger; John Cook; Timothy DelCurto; L.Scott Baggett; Donald Justice; David Powell; Martin Vavra; Bridgett Naylor

2015-01-01

Landscape fire succession models (LFSMs) predict spatially-explicit interactions between vegetation succession and disturbance, but these models have yet to fully integrate ungulate herbivory as a driver of their processes. We modified a complex LFSM, FireBGCv2, to include a multi-species herbivory module, GrazeBGC. The system is novel in that it explicitly...

NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) Presentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webster, William P.

2012-01-01

The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) offers integrated supercomputing, visualization, and data interaction technologies to enhance NASA's weather and climate prediction capabilities. It serves hundreds of users at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as other NASA centers, laboratories, and universities across the US. Over the past year, NCCS has continued expanding its data-centric computing environment to meet the increasingly data-intensive challenges of climate science. We doubled our Discover supercomputer's peak performance to more than 800 teraflops by adding 7,680 Intel Xeon Sandy Bridge processor-cores and most recently 240 Intel Xeon Phi Many Integrated Core (MIG) co-processors. A supercomputing-class analysis system named Dali gives users rapid access to their data on Discover and high-performance software including the Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT), with interfaces from user desktops and a 17- by 6-foot visualization wall. NCCS also is exploring highly efficient climate data services and management with a new MapReduce/Hadoop cluster while augmenting its data distribution to the science community. Using NCCS resources, NASA completed its modeling contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCG) Fifth Assessment Report this summer as part of the ongoing Coupled Modellntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Ensembles of simulations run on Discover reached back to the year 1000 to test model accuracy and projected climate change through the year 2300 based on four different scenarios of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land use. The data resulting from several thousand IPCC/CMIP5 simulations, as well as a variety of other simulation, reanalysis, and observationdatasets, are available to scientists and decision makers through an enhanced NCCS Earth System Grid Federation Gateway. Worldwide downloads have totaled over 110 terabytes of data.

Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, Jakob; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Schwaerz, Marc

2018-05-01

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) observations are highly accurate, long-term stable data sets and are globally available as a continuous record from 2001. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere - such as pressure, temperature, and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information) - can be derived from these records, which therefore have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. However, to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain from raw observations to essential climate variables. The new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS) at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented in the rOPS for uncertainty propagation from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles, for estimated systematic and random uncertainties, including vertical error correlations and resolution estimates. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic state profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty is traced through covariance propagation and validated using Monte Carlo ensemble methods. The algorithm performance is demonstrated using test day ensembles of simulated data as well as real RO event data from the satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP); Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC); and Meteorological Operational Satellite A (MetOp). The results of the Monte Carlo validation show that our covariance propagation delivers correct uncertainty quantification from excess phase to bending angle profiles. The results from the real RO event ensembles demonstrate that the new uncertainty estimation chain performs robustly. Together with the other parts of the rOPS processing chain this part is thus ready to provide integrated uncertainty propagation through the whole RO retrieval chain for the benefit of climate monitoring and other applications.

Exploring Challenges and Opportunities of Coproduction: USDA Climate Hub Efforts to Integrate Coproduction with Applied Research and Decision Support Tool Development in the Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roesch-McNally, G.; Prendeville, H. R.

2017-12-01

A lack of coproduction, the joint production of new technologies or knowledge among technical experts and other groups, is arguably one of the reasons why much scientific information and resulting decision support systems are not very usable. Increasingly, public agencies and academic institutions are emphasizing the importance of coproduction of scientific knowledge and decision support systems in order to facilitate greater engagement between the scientific community and key stakeholder groups. Coproduction has been embraced as a way for the scientific community to develop actionable scientific information that will assist end users in solving real-world problems. Increasing the level of engagement and stakeholder buy-in to the scientific process is increasingly necessary, particularly in the context of growing politicization of science and the scientific process. Coproduction can be an effective way to build trust and can build-on and integrate local and traditional knowledge. Employing coproduction strategies may enable the development of more relevant and useful information and decision support tools that address stakeholder challenges at relevant scales. The USDA Northwest Climate Hub has increasingly sought ways to integrate coproduction in the development of both applied research projects and the development of decision support systems. Integrating coproduction, however, within existing institutions is not always simple, given that coproduction is often more focused on process than products and products are, for better or worse, often the primary focus of applied research and tool development projects. The USDA Northwest Climate Hub sought to integrate coproduction into our FY2017 call for proposal process. As a result we have a set of proposals and fledgling projects that fall along the engagement continuum (see Figure 1- attached). We will share the challenges and opportunities that emerged from this purposeful integration of coproduction into the work that we prioritized for funding. This effort highlights strategies for how federal agencies might consider how and whether to codify coproduction tenets into their collaborations and agenda setting.

Health risk in the context of climate change and adaptation - Concept and mapping as an integrated approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kienberger, S.; Notenbaert, A.; Zeil, P.; Bett, B.; Hagenlocher, M.; Omolo, A.

2012-04-01

Climate change has been stated as being one of the greatest challenges to global health in the current century. Climate change impacts on human health and the socio-economic and related poverty consequences are however still poorly understood. While epidemiological issues are strongly coupled with environmental and climatic parameters, the social and economic circumstances of populations might be of equal or even greater importance when trying to identify vulnerable populations and design appropriate and well-targeted adaptation measures. The inter-linkage between climate change, human health risk and socio-economic impacts remains an important - but largely outstanding - research field. We present an overview on how risk is traditionally being conceptualised in the human health domain and reflect critically on integrated approaches as being currently used in the climate change context. The presentation will also review existing approaches, and how they can be integrated towards adaptation tools. Following this review, an integrated risk concept is being presented, which has been currently adapted under the EC FP7 research project (HEALTHY FUTURES; http://www.healthyfutures.eu/). In this approach, health risk is not only defined through the disease itself (as hazard) but also by the inherent vulnerability of the system, population or region under study. It is in fact the interaction of environment and society that leads to the development of diseases and the subsequent risk of being negatively affected by it. In this conceptual framework vulnerability is being attributed to domains of lack of resilience as well as underlying preconditions determining susceptibilities. To fulfil a holistic picture vulnerability can be associated to social, economic, environmental, institutional, cultural and physical dimensions. The proposed framework also establishes the important nexus to adaptation and how different measures can be related to avoid disease outbreaks, reduce vulnerability in order to lower health risks and disease impacts. The proposed framework explains the generic concepts of disease hazard, vulnerability, risk and its connections. It can be applied to many different diseases and implemented in different ways. Statistical or dynamic disease models integrating future climate projections can - for example - be combined with forecast models. These can be evaluated against different socio-economic development pathways and feed into decisions support systems with an ultimate aim of designing the most appropriate risk reduction strategies. The paper will present first preliminary results on the mapping of vulnerability for the Eastern African region, including diseases such as Malaria, Schistosomiasis and Rift Valley Fever and conclude with current research challenges and how they will be addressed within the HEALTHY FUTURES project.

Agent-based Model for the Coupled Human-Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zvoleff, A.; Werner, B.

2006-12-01

Integrated assessment models have been used to predict the outcome of coupled economic growth, resource use, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, both for scientific and policy purposes. These models generally have employed significant simplifications that suppress nonlinearities and the possibility of multiple equilibria in both their economic (DeCanio, 2005) and climate (Schneider and Kuntz-Duriseti, 2002) components. As one step toward exploring general features of the nonlinear dynamics of the coupled system, we have developed a series of variations on the well studied RICE and DICE models, which employ different forms of agent-based market dynamics and "climate surprises." Markets are introduced through the replacement of the production function of the DICE/RICE models with an agent-based market modeling the interactions of producers, policymakers, and consumer agents. Technological change and population growth are treated endogenously. Climate surprises are representations of positive (for example, ice sheet collapse) or negative (for example, increased aerosols from desertification) feedbacks that are turned on with probability depending on warming. Initial results point toward the possibility of large amplitude instabilities in the coupled human-climate system owing to the mismatch between short outlook market dynamics and long term climate responses. Implications for predictability of future climate will be discussed. Supported by the Andrew W Mellon Foundation and the UC Academic Senate.

Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests.

PubMed

Bonan, Gordon B

2008-06-13

The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.

Adjustment of the thermal component of two tourism climatological assessment tools using thermal perception and preference surveys from Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovács, Attila; Unger, János; Gál, Csilla V.; Kántor, Noémi

2016-07-01

This study introduces new methodological concepts for integrating seasonal subjective thermal assessment patterns of people into the thermal components of two tourism climatological evaluation tools: the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) and the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-Information-Scheme (CTIS). In the case of the TCI, we replaced the air temperature and relative humidity as the basis of the initial rating system with the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET)—a complex human biometeorological index. This modification improves the TCI's potential to evaluate the thermal aspects of climate. The major accomplishments of this study are (a) the development of a new, PET-based rating system and its integration into the thermal sub-indices of the TCI and (b) the regionalization of the thermal components of CTIS to reflect both the thermal sensation and preference patterns of people. A 2-year-long (2011-2012) thermal comfort survey conducted in Szeged, Hungary, from spring to autumn was utilized to demonstrate the implementation of the introduced concepts. We found considerable differences between the thermal perception and preference patterns of Hungarians, with additional variations across the evaluated seasons. This paper describes the proposed methodology for the integration of the new seasonal, perception-based, and preference-based PET rating systems into the TCI, and presents the incorporation of new PET thresholds into the CTIS. In order to demonstrate the utility of the modified evaluation tools, we performed case study climate analyses for three Hungarian tourist destinations. The additional adjustments introduced during the course of those analyses include the reduction of TCI's temporal resolution to 10-day intervals and the exclusion of nocturnal and winter periods from the investigation.

European drought under climate change and an assessment of the uncertainties in projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Osborn, T.; Conway, D.; Warren, R.; Hankin, R.

2012-04-01

Extreme weather/climate events have significant environmental and societal impacts, and anthropogenic climate change has and will continue to alter their characteristics (IPCC, 2011). Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards through its effects on agricultural, hydrological, ecological and socio-economic systems. Climate change is stimulating demand, from public and private sector decision-makers and also other stakeholders, for better understanding of potential future drought patterns which could facilitate disaster risk management. There remain considerable levels of uncertainty in climate change projections, particularly in relation to extreme events. Our incomplete understanding of the behaviour of the climate system has led to the development of various emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and global climate models (GCMs). Uncertainties arise also from the different types and definitions of drought. This study examines climate change-induced changes in European drought characteristics, and illustrates the robustness of these projections by quantifying the effects of using different emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and GCMs. This is achieved by using the multi-institutional modular "Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS)" (Warren et al., 2008), a flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Simulations generated by the simple climate model MAGICC6.0 are assessed. These include ten C4MIP carbon cycle models and eighteen CMIP3 GCMs under five IPCC SRES emission scenarios, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and three mitigation scenarios with CO2-equivalent levels stabilising at 550 ppm, 500 ppm and 450 ppm. Using an ensemble of 2160 future precipitation scenarios, we present an analysis on both short (3-month) and long (12-month) meteorological droughts based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for the baseline period (1951-2000) and two future periods of 2001-2050 and 2051-2100. Results indicate, with the exception of high latitude regions, a marked increase in drought condition across Europe especially in the second half of 21st century. Patterns, however, vary substantially depending on the model, emission scenario, region and season. While the variance introduced by choice of carbon cycle model is of minor importance, contribution of emission scenario becomes more important in the second half of the century; nevertheless, GCM uncertainty remains the dominant source throughout the 21st century and across all regions.

Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture - an initiative of the University of West Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyas, Cs.; Berki, I.; Drüszler, A.; Eredics, A.; Galos, B.; Moricz, N.; Rasztovits, E.

2012-04-01

In whole Central Europe agricultural production is highly vulnerable and sensitive to impacts of projected climatic changes. The low-elevation regions of the Carpathian Basin (most of the territory of Hungary), where precipitation is the minimum factor of production, are especially exposed to climatic extremes, especially to droughts. Rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry on nature-close pastures and nature-close forestry are the most sensitive sectors due to limited possibilities to counterbalance moisture supply constraints. These sectors have to be best prepared to frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses. So far, there is a lack of information about the middle and long term consequences on regional and local level. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimation is increasing. The aim of the initiative is to set up a fine-scale, GIS-based, complex, integrated system for the definition of the most important regional and local challenges and tasks of climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and also nature protection. The Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture is planned to provide the following services: § Complex, GIS-supported database, which integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions; § Evaluation of existing satellite-based and earth-based monitoring systems; § GIS-supported information about the future trends of climate change impacts on the agroecological potential and sensitivity status on regional and local level (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.) in fine-scale horizontal resolution, based first of all on natural produce, including also social and economic consequences; § Complex decision supporting system on regional and local scale for middle- and long term adaptation and mitigation strategies, providing information on optimum technologies and energy balances. Cooperation with already existing Climate Service Centres and national and international collaboration in monitoring and research are important elements of the activity of the Centre. In the future, the Centre is planned to form part of a national information system on climate change adaptation and mitigation, supported by the Ministry of Development. Keywords: climate change impacts, forestry, rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry

Integrated Water Resources Planning and Management in Arid/Semi-arid Regions: Data, Modeling, and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, H.; Liu, Y.; Wagener, T.; Durcik, M.; Duffy, C.; Springer, E.

2005-12-01

Water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. As the demand for water continues to increase due to economic and population growth, planning and management of available water resources under climate uncertainties becomes increasingly critical in order to achieve basin-scale water sustainability (i.e., to ensure a long-term balance between supply and demand of water).The tremendous complexity of the interactions between the natural hydrologic system and the human environment means that modeling is the only available mechanism for properly integrating new knowledge into the decision-making process. Basin-scale integrated models have the potential to allow us to study the feedback processes between the physical and human systems (including institutional, engineering, and behavioral components); and an integrated assessment of the potential second- and higher-order effects of political and management decisions can aid in the selection of a rational water-resources policy. Data and information, especially hydrological and water-use data, are critical to the integrated modeling and assessment for water resources management of any region. To this end we are in the process of developing a multi-resolution integrated modeling and assessment framework for the south-western USA, which can be used to generate simulations of the probable effects of human actions while taking into account the uncertainties brought about by future climatic variability and change. Data are being collected (including the development of a hydro-geospatial database) and used in support of the modeling and assessment activities. This paper will present a blueprint of the modeling framework, describe achievements so far and discuss the science questions which still require answers with a particular emphasis on issues related to dry regions.

A global validation of ERA-Interim integrated water vapor estimates using ground-based GNSS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, F.; Dousa, J.; Hunegnaw, A.; Teferle, F. N.; Bingley, R.

2017-12-01

Integrated water vapor (IWV) derived from climate reanalysis models, such as the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ReAnalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim), is widely used in many atmospheric applications. Therefore, it is of interest to assess the quality of this reanalysis product using available observations. Observations from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are, as of now, available for a period of over 2 decades and their global availability makes it possible to validate the IWV obtained from climate reanalysis models in different geographical and climatic regions. In this study, primarily, three 5-year long homogeneously reprocessed GNSS-derived IWV datasets containing over 400 globally distributed ground-based GNSS stations have been used to validate the IWV estimates obtained from the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis model in 25 different climate zones. The IWV from ERA-Interim has been obtained by vertically integrating the specific humidity at all model levels above the locations of GNSS stations. It has been studied how the difference between the ERA-Interim IWV and the GNSS-derived IWV varies with respect to the different climate zones as well as with respect to the difference in the model orography and latitude. The results show a dependence of the ability of ERA-Interim to model the IWV on difference in climate types and latitude. This dependence, however, is dictated by the concentration of water vapor in different climate zones and at different latitudes. Furthermore, as a secondary focus of this study, the weighted mean atmospheric temperature (Tm) obtained from ERA-Interim has been compared to its equivalent obtained using two widely used approximations globally.

Uncertainty and the Social Cost of Methane Using Bayesian Constrained Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Errickson, F. C.; Anthoff, D.; Keller, K.

2016-12-01

Social cost estimates of greenhouse gases are important for the design of sound climate policies and are also plagued by uncertainty. One major source of uncertainty stems from the simplified representation of the climate system used in the integrated assessment models that provide these social cost estimates. We explore how uncertainty over the social cost of methane varies with the way physical processes and feedbacks in the methane cycle are modeled by (i) coupling three different methane models to a simple climate model, (ii) using MCMC to perform a Bayesian calibration of the three coupled climate models that simulates direct sampling from the joint posterior probability density function (pdf) of model parameters, and (iii) producing probabilistic climate projections that are then used to calculate the Social Cost of Methane (SCM) with the DICE and FUND integrated assessment models. We find that including a temperature feedback in the methane cycle acts as an additional constraint during the calibration process and results in a correlation between the tropospheric lifetime of methane and several climate model parameters. This correlation is not seen in the models lacking this feedback. Several of the estimated marginal pdfs of the model parameters also exhibit different distributional shapes and expected values depending on the methane model used. As a result, probabilistic projections of the climate system out to the year 2300 exhibit different levels of uncertainty and magnitudes of warming for each of the three models under an RCP8.5 scenario. We find these differences in climate projections result in differences in the distributions and expected values for our estimates of the SCM. We also examine uncertainty about the SCM by performing a Monte Carlo analysis using a distribution for the climate sensitivity while holding all other climate model parameters constant. Our SCM estimates using the Bayesian calibration are lower and exhibit less uncertainty about extremely high values in the right tail of the distribution compared to the Monte Carlo approach. This finding has important climate policy implications and suggests previous work that accounts for climate model uncertainty by only varying the climate sensitivity parameter may overestimate the SCM.

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

Treesearch

Mercedes M. C. Bustamante; Iris Roitman; T. Mitchell Aide; Ane Alencar; Liana O. Anderson; Luiz Aragao; Gregory P. Asner; Jos Barlow; Erika Berenguer; Jeffrey Chambers; Marcos H. Costa; Thierry Fanin; Laerte G. Ferreira; Joice Ferreira; Michael Keller; William E. Magnusson; Lucia Morales-Barquero; Douglas Morton; Jean P. H. B. Ometto; Michael Palace; Carlos A. Peres; Divino Silverio; Susan Trumbore; Ima C. G. Vieira

2015-01-01

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks...

Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Data Products for Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kato, Seiji; Loeb, Norman G.; Rutan, David A.; Rose, Fred G.

2015-01-01

NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project integrates CERES, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and geostationary satellite observations to provide top-of-atmosphere (TOA) irradiances derived from broadband radiance observations by CERES instruments. It also uses snow cover and sea ice extent retrieved from microwave instruments as well as thermodynamic variables from reanalysis. In addition, these variables are used for surface and atmospheric irradiance computations. The CERES project provides TOA, surface, and atmospheric irradiances in various spatial and temporal resolutions. These data sets are for climate research and evaluation of climate models. Long-term observations are required to understand how the Earth system responds to radiative forcing. A simple model is used to estimate the time to detect trends in TOA reflected shortwave and emitted longwave irradiances.

Integrated Drought Monitoring and Forecasts for Decision Making in Water and Agricultural Sectors over the Southeastern US under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arumugam, S.; Mazrooei, A.; Ward, R.

2017-12-01

Changing climate arising from structured oscillations such as ENSO and rising temperature poses challenging issues in meeting the increasing water demand (due to population growth) for public supply and agriculture over the Southeast US. This together with infrastructural (e.g., most reservoirs being within-year systems) and operational (e.g., static rule curves) constraints requires an integrated approach that seamlessly monitors and forecasts water and soil moisture conditions to support adaptive decision making in water and agricultural sectors. In this talk, we discuss the utility of an integrated drought management portal that both monitors and forecasts streamflow and soil moisture over the southeast US. The forecasts are continuously developed and updated by forcing monthly-to-seasonal climate forecasts with a land surface model for various target basins. The portal also houses a reservoir allocation model that allows water managers to explore different release policies in meeting the system constraints and target storages conditioned on the forecasts. The talk will also demonstrate how past events (e.g., 2007-2008 drought) could be proactively monitored and managed to improve decision making in water and agricultural sectors over the Southeast US. Challenges in utilizing the portal information from institutional and operational perspectives will also be presented.

2015 ESGF Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, D. N.

2015-06-22

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is a multi-agency, international collaboration whose purpose is to develop the software infrastructure needed to facilitate and empower the study of climate change on a global scale. ESGF’s architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered yet united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces. The cornerstones of its interoperability are the peer-to-peer messaging, which is continuously exchanged among all nodes in the federation; a shared architecture for search and discovery; and a security infrastructure based on industry standards. ESGF integrates popular application engines available from the open-sourcemore » community with custom components (for data publishing, searching, user interface, security, and messaging) that were developed collaboratively by the team. The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)—output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports. ESGF is a successful example of integration of disparate open-source technologies into a cohesive functional system that serves the needs of the global climate science community.« less

Online coupled regional meteorology-chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, A.; Schluenzen, K. H.; Suppan, P.; Baldasano, J.; Brunner, D.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Carmichael, G.; Douros, J.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R.; Galmarini, S.; Gauss, M.; Grell, G.; Hirtl, M.; Joffre, S.; Jorba, O.; Kaas, E.; Kaasik, M.; Kallos, G.; Kong, X.; Korsholm, U.; Kurganskiy, A.; Kushta, J.; Lohmann, U.; Mahura, A.; Manders-Groot, A.; Maurizi, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Rao, S. T.; Savage, N.; Seigneur, C.; Sokhi, R.; Solazzo, E.; Solomos, S.; Sørensen, B.; Tsegas, G.; Vignati, E.; Vogel, B.; Zhang, Y.

2013-05-01

The simulation of the coupled evolution of atmospheric dynamics, pollutant transport, chemical reactions and atmospheric composition is one of the most challenging tasks in environmental modelling, climate change studies, and weather forecasting for the next decades as they all involve strongly integrated processes. Weather strongly influences air quality (AQ) and atmospheric transport of hazardous materials, while atmospheric composition can influence both weather and climate by directly modifying the atmospheric radiation budget or indirectly affecting cloud formation. Until recently, however, due to the scientific complexities and lack of computational power, atmospheric chemistry and weather forecasting have developed as separate disciplines, leading to the development of separate modelling systems that are only loosely coupled. The continuous increase in computer power has now reached a stage that enables us to perform online coupling of regional meteorological models with atmospheric chemical transport models. The focus on integrated systems is timely, since recent research has shown that meteorology and chemistry feedbacks are important in the context of many research areas and applications, including numerical weather prediction (NWP), AQ forecasting as well as climate and Earth system modelling. However, the relative importance of online integration and its priorities, requirements and levels of detail necessary for representing different processes and feedbacks can greatly vary for these related communities: (i) NWP, (ii) AQ forecasting and assessments, (iii) climate and earth system modelling. Additional applications are likely to benefit from online modelling, e.g.: simulation of volcanic ash or forest fire plumes, pollen warnings, dust storms, oil/gas fires, geo-engineering tests involving changes in the radiation balance. The COST Action ES1004 - European framework for online integrated air quality and meteorology modelling (EuMetChem) - aims at paving the way towards a new generation of online integrated atmospheric chemical transport and meteorology modelling with two-way interactions between different atmospheric processes including dynamics, chemistry, clouds, radiation, boundary layer and emissions. As its first task, we summarise the current status of European modelling practices and experience with online coupled modelling of meteorology with atmospheric chemistry including feedback mechanisms and attempt reviewing the various issues connected to the different modules of such online coupled models but also providing recommendations for coping with them for the benefit of the modelling community at large.

Mandate for the Nursing Profession to Address Climate Change Through Nursing Education.

PubMed

Leffers, Jeanne; Levy, Ruth McDermott; Nicholas, Patrice K; Sweeney, Casey F

2017-11-01

The adverse health effects from climate change demand action from the nursing profession. This article examines the calls to action, the status of climate change in nursing education, and challenges and recommendations for nursing education related to climate change and human health. Discussion paper. The integration of climate change into nursing education is essential so that knowledge, skills, and insights critical for clinical practice in our climate-changing world are incorporated in curricula, practice, research, and policy. Our Ecological Planetary Health Model offers a framework for nursing to integrate relevant climate change education into nursing curricula and professional nursing education. Nursing education can offer a leadership role to address the mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies for climate change. An ecological framework is valuable for nursing education regarding climate change through its consideration of political, cultural, economic, and environmental interrelationships on human health and the health of the planet. Knowledge of climate change is important for integration into basic and advanced nursing education, as well as professional education for nurses to address adverse health impacts, climate change responses policy, and advocacy roles. For current and future nurses to provide care within a climate-changing environment, nursing education has a mandate to integrate knowledge about climate change issues across all levels of nursing education. Competence in nursing practice follows from knowledge and skill acquisition gained from integration of climate change content into nursing education. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-12-01

We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Enhancements to an Agriculture-land Modeling System - FEST-C and Its Applications

EPA Science Inventory

The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) system was originally developed to simulate daily fertilizer application information using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model across any defined CMAQ conterminous United States (U.S.) CMAQ domain and gr...

Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

2017-12-01

Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017. Techniques of the database system for near-future climate change projections might be quite useful for simulation and observational data in other research fields. We report current status of development and some case studies of the database system for near-future climate change projections.

Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO₂ during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

PubMed

Royer, D L; Pagani, M; Beerling, D J

2012-07-01

Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long-term (>10³ year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO₂ that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 10³ year, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero. We report provisional ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for some of the Cretaceous and Cenozoic based on paleo-reconstructions of CO₂ and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (approximately 3 °C). Climate models probably do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks that amplify global temperatures during some globally warm periods, as well as other characteristic features of warm climates such as low meridional temperature gradients. These absent feedbacks may be related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases (GHGs), seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Better characterization and quantification of these feedbacks is a priority given the current accumulation of atmospheric GHGs. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

NOAA's Scientific Data Stewardship Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, J. J.

2004-12-01

The NOAA mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet the Nation's economic, social and environmental needs. NOAA has responsibility for long-term archiving of the United States environmental data and has recently integrated several data management functions into a concept called Scientific Data Stewardship. Scientific Data Stewardship a new paradigm in data management consisting of an integrated suite of functions to preserve and exploit the full scientific value of NOAA's, and the world's, environmental data These functions include careful monitoring of observing system performance for long-term applications, the generation of authoritative long-term climate records from multiple observing platforms, and the proper archival of and timely access to data and metadata. NOAA has developed a conceptual framework to implement the functions of scientific data stewardship. This framework has five objectives: 1) develop real-time monitoring of all satellite observing systems for climate applications, 2) process large volumes of satellite data extending up to decades in length to account for systematic errors and to eliminate artifacts in the raw data (referred to as fundamental climate data records, FCDRs), 3) generate retrieved geophysical parameters from the FCDRs (referred to as thematic climate data records TCDRs) including combining observations from all sources, 4) conduct monitoring and research by analyzing data sets to uncover climate trends and to provide evaluation and feedback for steps 2) and 3), and 5) provide archives of metadata, FCDRs, and TCDRs, and facilitate distribution of these data to the user community. The term `climate data record' and related terms, such as climate data set, have been used for some time, but the climate community has yet to settle on a concensus definition. A recent United States National Academy of Sciences report recommends using the following definition: a climate data record (CDR) is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change.

NASA's Climate Data Services Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McInerney, M.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Webster, W. P.

2013-12-01

Our understanding of the Earth's processes is based on a combination of observational data records and mathematical models. The size of NASA's space-based observational data sets is growing dramatically as new missions come online. However a potentially bigger data challenge is posed by the work of climate scientists, whose models are regularly producing data sets of hundreds of terabytes or more. It is important to understand that the 'Big Data' challenge of climate science cannot be solved with a single technological approach or an ad hoc assemblage of technologies. It will require a multi-faceted, well-integrated suite of capabilities that include cloud computing, large-scale compute-storage systems, high-performance analytics, scalable data management, and advanced deployment mechanisms in addition to the existing, well-established array of mature information technologies. It will also require a coherent organizational effort that is able to focus on the specific and sometimes unique requirements of climate science. Given that it is the knowledge that is gained from data that is of ultimate benefit to society, data publication and data analytics will play a particularly important role. In an effort to accelerate scientific discovery and innovation through broader use of climate data, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Office of Computational and Information Sciences and Technology has embarked on a determined effort to build a comprehensive, integrated data publication and analysis capability for climate science. The Climate Data Services (CDS) Initiative integrates people, expertise, and technology into a highly-focused, next-generation, one-stop climate science information service. The CDS Initiative is providing the organizational framework, processes, and protocols needed to deploy existing information technologies quickly using a combination of enterprise-level services and an expanding array of cloud services. Crucial to its effectiveness, the CDS Initiative is developing the technical expertise to move new information technologies from R&D into operational use. This combination enables full, end-to-end support for climate data publishing and data analytics, and affords the flexibility required to meet future and unanticipated needs. Current science efforts being supported by the CDS Initiative include IPPC, OBS4MIP, ANA4MIPS, MERRA II, National Climate Assessment, the Ocean Data Assimilation project, NASA Earth Exchange (NEX), and the RECOVER Burned Area Emergency Response decision support system. Service offerings include an integrated suite of classic technologies (FTP, LAS, THREDDS, ESGF, GRaD-DODS, OPeNDAP, WMS, ArcGIS Server), emerging technologies (iRODS, UVCDAT), and advanced technologies (MERRA Analytic Services, MapReduce, Ontology Services, and the CDS API). This poster will describe the CDS Initiative, provide details about the Initiative's advanced offerings, and layout the CDS Initiative's deployment roadmap.

Grid-scale Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate due to aerosols over the northern hemisphere simulated by the integrated WRF-CMAQ model: Preliminary results

EPA Science Inventory

In this study, indirect aerosol effects on grid-scale clouds were implemented in the integrated WRF3.3-CMAQ5.0 modeling system by including parameterizations for both cloud droplet and ice number concentrations calculated from the CMAQ-predicted aerosol particles. The resulting c...

Landscape pattern and ecological process in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Dean L. Urban

2004-01-01

The Sierran Global Change Program in Sequoia-Kings Canyon and Yosemite National Parks includes a nearly decade-long integrated study of the interactions between climate, forest processes, and fire. This study is characterized by three recurring themes: (1) the use of systems-level models as a framework for integration and synthesis, (2) an effort to extrapolate an...

Climate change adaptation and Integrated Water Resource Management in the water sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Fulco; van Slobbe, Erik; Cofino, Wim

2014-10-01

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) was introduced in 1980s to better optimise water uses between different water demanding sectors. However, since it was introduced water systems have become more complicated due to changes in the global water cycle as a result of climate change. The realization that climate change will have a significant impact on water availability and flood risks has driven research and policy making on adaptation. This paper discusses the main similarities and differences between climate change adaptation and IWRM. The main difference between the two is the focus on current and historic issues of IWRM compared to the (long-term) future focus of adaptation. One of the main problems of implementing climate change adaptation is the large uncertainties in future projections. Two completely different approaches to adaptation have been developed in response to these large uncertainties. A top-down approach based on large scale biophysical impacts analyses focussing on quantifying and minimizing uncertainty by using a large range of scenarios and different climate and impact models. The main problem with this approach is the propagation of uncertainties within the modelling chain. The opposite is the bottom up approach which basically ignores uncertainty. It focusses on reducing vulnerabilities, often at local scale, by developing resilient water systems. Both these approaches however are unsuitable for integrating into water management. The bottom up approach focuses too much on socio-economic vulnerability and too little on developing (technical) solutions. The top-down approach often results in an “explosion” of uncertainty and therefore complicates decision making. A more promising direction of adaptation would be a risk based approach. Future research should further develop and test an approach which starts with developing adaptation strategies based on current and future risks. These strategies should then be evaluated using a range of future scenarios in order to develop robust adaptation measures and strategies.

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is hypothesized that: 1) long-term future hydrology and water quality in surface and subsurface drainage areas will be influenced by LULC and climate change, and 2) this approach will be useful to identify specific areas contributing the most pollutants to aquifers due to LULC and climate change.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program

PubMed Central

Shin, Yong Seung

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities. PMID:23256088

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

PubMed

Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

Data-Driven Synthesis for Investigating Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.

2014-12-01

The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the particular challenges of supporting an integrated, repeatable workflow for socio-environmental data synthesis, and the advantages and limitations to using data as a launching point for interdisciplinary research projects.

Mitigation of Disasters Due to Severe Climate Events: from Policy to Practice,the West African Coastal Region Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ediang, Okuku

2016-07-01

The distributive pattern of disaster due to severe climate events over the coast of West Africa especially Nigeria was examined using yearly mean disaster due to severe climatic events for the period of 30 years (1981-2010) from the marine stations in the coastal region of Nigeria. Graphical and isohyetal analyses were used to look into the patter of severe weather events over the area considered and to see if the severe weather events is increasing or not in the coast of West Africa especially the Nigerian coast and how to mitigate ,were policy relating to severe weather events are discussed. The paper conclude that due to the nature of coast of West Africa and Nigeria in particular, it enjoys longer severe weather events season than dry during the wet season, it is common to observe periods of enhanced or suppressed convective activity to persist over the wide areas for somedays. This paper also contributes to the wealth of knowledge already existing on Indigenous people play major roles in preserving the ecosystem especially during severe weather events . This has resulted in the recent calls for the integration of indigenous knowledge systems into global knowledge system strategies. Until now, integrating local knowledge systems into severe weather events and climate change concerns is not a completely new idea. A comprehensive review of literature using electronic and non-electronic databases formed the methodology. The paper conclude also by drawing the attention that by targeting Promoting indigenous people's participation in severe weather events and climate change issues is an important initiative towards adaptation and sustainable development in Africa and around the world. It is increasingly realized that the global knowledge system has dominated research, policies and programmes that address current severe weather events and climate change's challenges,mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Cities and “budget-based” management of the energy-water-climate nexus: Case studies in transportation policy, infrastructure systems, and urban utility risk management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperling, Joshua B.; Ramaswami, Anu

This article reviews city case studies to inform a framework for developing urban infrastructure design standards and policy instruments that together aim to pursue energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation through city carbon budgets and water use efficiency and climate risk adaptation through city water budgets. Here, this article also proposes combining carbon and water budgeting at the city-scale for achieving successful coupled city carbon and water budget (CCCWB) programs. Under a CCCWB program, key actors including local governments, infrastructure designers/operators, and households would be assigned a GHG emissions and water 'budget' and be required by state or federal levelsmore » to keep within this budget through the use of flexibility mechanisms, incentive programs, and sanctions. Multiple incentives and cross-scale governance arrangements would be tied to energy-water systems integration, resource-efficient transportation and infrastructure development, and effective monitoring and management of energy use, emissions, climate risks to, and security of energy-water-transport-food and other critical systems. As a first step to promote strategies for CCCWB development, we systematically review approaches of and shortcomings to existing budget-based programs in the UK and US, and suggest improvements in three areas: measurement, modeling effectiveness of interventions for staying within a budget, and governance. To date, the majority of climate action or sustainability plans by cities, while mentioning climate impacts as a premise for the plan, do not address these impacts in the plan. They focus primarily on GHG mitigation while ignoring resource depletion challenges and energy-climate-water linkages, whereby water supplies can begin to limit energy production and energy shifts to mitigate climate change can limit water availability. Coupled carbon-water budget plans, programs, and policies - described in this study- may address these concerns as well as the emerging trends that will exacerbate these problems - e.g., including population growth, climatic changes, and emerging policy choices that are not coordinated. Cities and 'Budget-Based' Management of the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus: Case Studies to Inform Strategy for Integrated Performance- and Incentive-Based Design and Policy Instruments.« less

Cities and “budget-based” management of the energy-water-climate nexus: Case studies in transportation policy, infrastructure systems, and urban utility risk management

DOE PAGES

Sperling, Joshua B.; Ramaswami, Anu

2017-11-03

This article reviews city case studies to inform a framework for developing urban infrastructure design standards and policy instruments that together aim to pursue energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation through city carbon budgets and water use efficiency and climate risk adaptation through city water budgets. Here, this article also proposes combining carbon and water budgeting at the city-scale for achieving successful coupled city carbon and water budget (CCCWB) programs. Under a CCCWB program, key actors including local governments, infrastructure designers/operators, and households would be assigned a GHG emissions and water 'budget' and be required by state or federal levelsmore » to keep within this budget through the use of flexibility mechanisms, incentive programs, and sanctions. Multiple incentives and cross-scale governance arrangements would be tied to energy-water systems integration, resource-efficient transportation and infrastructure development, and effective monitoring and management of energy use, emissions, climate risks to, and security of energy-water-transport-food and other critical systems. As a first step to promote strategies for CCCWB development, we systematically review approaches of and shortcomings to existing budget-based programs in the UK and US, and suggest improvements in three areas: measurement, modeling effectiveness of interventions for staying within a budget, and governance. To date, the majority of climate action or sustainability plans by cities, while mentioning climate impacts as a premise for the plan, do not address these impacts in the plan. They focus primarily on GHG mitigation while ignoring resource depletion challenges and energy-climate-water linkages, whereby water supplies can begin to limit energy production and energy shifts to mitigate climate change can limit water availability. Coupled carbon-water budget plans, programs, and policies - described in this study- may address these concerns as well as the emerging trends that will exacerbate these problems - e.g., including population growth, climatic changes, and emerging policy choices that are not coordinated. Cities and 'Budget-Based' Management of the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus: Case Studies to Inform Strategy for Integrated Performance- and Incentive-Based Design and Policy Instruments.« less

Development of virtual research environment for regional climatic and ecological studies and continuous education support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, Evgeny; Lykosov, Vasily; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir; Bogomolov, Vasily; Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

2014-05-01

Volumes of environmental data archives are growing immensely due to recent models, high performance computers and sensors development. It makes impossible their comprehensive analysis in conventional manner on workplace using in house computing facilities, data storage and processing software at hands. One of possible answers to this challenge is creation of virtual research environment (VRE), which should provide a researcher with an integrated access to huge data resources, tools and services across disciplines and user communities and enable researchers to process structured and qualitative data in virtual workspaces. VRE should integrate data, network and computing resources providing interdisciplinary climatic research community with opportunity to get profound understanding of ongoing and possible future climatic changes and their consequences. Presented are first steps and plans for development of VRE prototype element aimed at regional climatic and ecological monitoring and modeling as well as at continuous education and training support. Recently developed experimental software and hardware platform aimed at integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced data "Climate" (http://climate.scert.ru/, Gordov et al., 2013; Shulgina et al., 2013; Okladnikov et al., 2013) is used as a VRE element prototype and approach test bench. VRE under development will integrate on the base of geoportal distributed thematic data storage, processing and analysis systems and set of models of complex climatic and environmental processes run on supercomputers. VRE specific tools are aimed at high resolution rendering on-going climatic processes occurring in Northern Eurasia and reliable and found prognoses of their dynamics for selected sets of future mankind activity scenaria. Currently the VRE element is accessible via developed geoportal at the same link (http://climate.scert.ru/) and integrates the WRF and «Planet Simulator» models, basic reanalysis and instrumental measurements data and support profound statistical analysis of storaged and modeled on demand data. In particular, one can run the integrated models, preprocess modeling results data, using dedicated modules for numerical processing perform analysys and visualize obtained results. New functionality recently has been added to the statistical analysis tools set aimed at detailed studies of climatic extremes occurring in Northern Asia. The VRE element is also supporting thematic educational courses for students and post-graduate students of the Tomsk State University. In particular, it allow students to perform on-line thematic laboratory work cycles on the basics of analysis of current and potential future regional climate change using Siberia territory as an example (Gordova et al, 2013). We plan to expand the integrated models set and add comprehensive surface and Arctic Ocean description. Developed VRE element "Climate" provides specialists involved into multidisciplinary research projects with reliable and practical instruments for integrated research of climate and ecosystems changes on global and regional scales. With its help even a user without programming skills can process and visualize multidimensional observational and model data through unified web-interface using a common graphical web-browser. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant 13-05-12034, grant 14-05-00502, and integrated project SB RAS 131. References 1. Gordov E.P., Lykosov V.N., Krupchatnikov V.N., Okladnikov I.G., Titov A.G., Shulgina T.M. Computationaland information technologies for monitoring and modeling of climate changes and their consequences. Novosibirsk: Nauka, Siberian branch, 2013. - 195 p. (in Russian) 2. T.M. Shulgina, E.P. Gordov, I.G. Okladnikov, A.G., Titov, E.Yu. Genina, N.P. Gorbatenko, I.V. Kuzhevskaya,A.S. Akhmetshina. Software complex for a regional climate change analysis. // Vestnik NGU. Series: Information technologies. 2013. Vol. 11. Issue 1. P. 124-131. (in Russian) 3. I.G. Okladnikov, A.G. Titov, T.M. Shulgina, E.P. Gordov, V.Yu. Bogomolov, Yu.V. Martynova, S.P. Suschenko,A.V. Skvortsov. Software for analysis and visualization of climate change monitoring and forecasting data //Numerical methods and programming, 2013. Vol. 14. P. 123-131.(in Russian) 4. Yu.E. Gordova, E.Yu. Genina, V.P. Gorbatenko, E.P. Gordov, I.V. Kuzhevskaya, Yu.V. Martynova , I.G. Okladnikov, A.G. Titov, T.M. Shulgina, N.K. Barashkova Support of the educational process in modern climatology within the web-gis platform «Climate». Open and Distant Education. 2013, No 1(49)., P. 14-19.(in Russian)

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lynch, Peter

2008-03-20

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. Amore » fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.« less

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Peter

2008-03-01

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

Applications of geographic information systems (GIS) for livability.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

Livability is the idea that transportation, land use, housing, energy, and environmental considerations can be integrated to protect the environment, promote equitable development, and help to address the challenges of climate change. Geographi...

Managing urban water systems with significant adaptation deficits - a unified framework for secondary cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathirana, A.; Radhakrishnan, M.; Zevenbergen, C.; Quan, N. H.

2016-12-01

The need to address the shortcomings of urban systems - adaptation deficit - and shortcomings in response to climate change - `adaptation gap' - are both major challenges in maintaining the livability and sustainability of cities. However, the adaptation actions defined in terms of type I (addressing adaptation deficits) and type II (addressing adaptation gaps), often compete and conflict each other in the secondary cities of the global south. Extending the concept of the environmental Kuznets curve, this paper argues that a unified framework that calls for synergistic action on type I and type II adaptation is essential in order for these cities to maintain their livability, sustainability and resilience facing extreme rates of urbanization and rapid onset of climate change. The proposed framework has been demonstrated in Can Tho, Vietnam, where there are significant adaptation deficits due to rapid urbanisation and adaptation gaps due to climate change and socio-economic changes. The analysis in Can Tho reveals the lack of integration between type I and type II measures that could be overcome by closer integration between various stakeholders in terms of planning, prioritising and implementing the adaptation measures.

Analysis of Vegetation Index Variations and the Asian Monsoon Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Sunhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Gerasimov, Irina

2012-01-01

Vegetation growth depends on local climate. Significant anthropogenic land cover and land use change activities over Asia have changed vegetation distribution as well. On the other hand, vegetation is one of the important land surface variables that influence the Asian Monsoon variability through controlling atmospheric energy and water vapor conditions. In this presentation, the mean and variations of vegetation index of last decade at regional scale resolution (5km and higher) from MODIS have been analyzed. Results indicate that the vegetation index has been reduced significantly during last decade over fast urbanization areas in east China, such as Yangtze River Delta, where local surface temperatures were increased significantly in term of urban heat Island. The relationship between vegetation Index and climate (surface temperature, precipitation) over a grassland in northern Asia and over a woody savannas in southeast Asia are studied. In supporting Monsoon Asian Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS) program, the data in this study have been integrated into Giovanni, the online visualization and analysis system at NASA GES DISC. Most images in this presentation are generated from Giovanni system.

Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Nie, S.; Fan, Y. R.; Huang, G. H.

2018-01-01

An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.

Utilization of sunn hemp for cover crops and weed control in temperate climates

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The need to develop increasingly integrated pest management and sustainable food production systems has encouraged a greater interest to thoroughly evaluate effective utilization of cover crops in agricultural systems. Sunn hemp, a tropical legume that originated most likely from the Indo-Pakistani ...

Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jöckel, Patrick; Tost, Holger; Pozzer, Andrea; Kunze, Markus; Kirner, Oliver; Brenninkmeijer, Carl A. M.; Brinkop, Sabine; Cai, Duy S.; Dyroff, Christoph; Eckstein, Johannes; Frank, Franziska; Garny, Hella; Gottschaldt, Klaus-Dirk; Graf, Phoebe; Grewe, Volker; Kerkweg, Astrid; Kern, Bastian; Matthes, Sigrun; Mertens, Mariano; Meul, Stefanie; Neumaier, Marco; Nützel, Matthias; Oberländer-Hayn, Sophie; Ruhnke, Roland; Runde, Theresa; Sander, Rolf; Scharffe, Dieter; Zahn, Andreas

2016-03-01

Three types of reference simulations, as recommended by the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), have been performed with version 2.51 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model: hindcast simulations (1950-2011), hindcast simulations with specified dynamics (1979-2013), i.e. nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and combined hindcast and projection simulations (1950-2100). The manuscript summarizes the updates of the model system and details the different model set-ups used, including the on-line calculated diagnostics. Simulations have been performed with two different nudging set-ups, with and without interactive tropospheric aerosol, and with and without a coupled ocean model. Two different vertical resolutions have been applied. The on-line calculated sources and sinks of reactive species are quantified and a first evaluation of the simulation results from a global perspective is provided as a quality check of the data. The focus is on the intercomparison of the different model set-ups. The simulation data will become publicly available via CCMI and the Climate and Environmental Retrieval and Archive (CERA) database of the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). This manuscript is intended to serve as an extensive reference for further analyses of the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) simulations.

Analysis of hydrological processes across the Northern Eurasia with recently re-developed online informational system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiklomanov, A. I.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Gordov, E. P.; Okladnikov, I.; Titov, A. G.

2016-12-01

The volume of georeferenced datasets used for hydrology and climate research is growing immensely due to recent advances in modeling, high performance computers, and sensor networks, as well as initiation of a set of large scale complex global and regional monitoring experiments. To facilitate the management and analysis of these extensive data pools we developed Web-based data management, visualization, and analysis system - RIMS - http://earthatlas.sr.unh.edu/ (Rapid Integrated Mapping and Analysis System) with a focus on hydrological applications. Recently, under collaboration with Russian colleagues from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS, Russia, we significantly re-designed the RIMS to include the latest Web and GIS technologies in compliance with the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards. An upgraded RIMS can be successfully applied to address multiple research problems using an extensive data archive and embedded tools for data computations, visualizations and distributions. We will demonstrate current possibility of the system providing several results of applied data analysis fulfilled for territory of the Northern Eurasia. These results will include the analysis of historical, contemporary and future changes in climate and hydrology based on station and gridded data, investigations of recent extreme hydrological events, their anomalies, causes and potential impacts, and creation and analysis of new data sets through integration of social and geophysical data.

Web-GIS approach for integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

2014-05-01

Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used for modeling, interpretation and forecasting of climatic and ecosystem changes on different spatial and temporal scales [1]. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size (up to tens terabytes for a single dataset) a special software supporting studies in the climate and environmental change areas is required [2]. Dedicated information-computational system for integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced climatological and meteorological data is presented. It is based on combination of Web and GIS technologies according to Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards, and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library (http://www.geoext.org), ExtJS Framework (http://www.sencha.com/products/extjs) and OpenLayers software (http://openlayers.org). The main advantage of the system lies in it's capability to perform integrated analysis of time series of georeferenced data obtained from different sources (in-situ observations, model results, remote sensing data) and to combine the results in a single map [3, 4] as WMS and WFS layers in a web-GIS application. Also analysis results are available for downloading as binary files from the graphical user interface or can be directly accessed through web mapping (WMS) and web feature (WFS) services for a further processing by the user. Data processing is performed on geographically distributed computational cluster comprising data storage systems and corresponding computational nodes. Several geophysical datasets represented by NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis II, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA Interim Reanalysis, MRI/JMA APHRODITE's Water Resources Project Reanalysis, DWD Global Precipitation Climatology Centre's data, GMAO Modern Era-Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, reanalysis of Monitoring atmospheric composition and climate (MACC) Collaborated Project, NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Global Reanalysis Version II, NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), meteorological observational data for the territory of the former USSR for the 20th century, results of modeling by global and regional climatological models, and others are available for processing by the system. The Web-GIS information-computational system for heterogeneous geophysical data analysis provides specialists involved into multidisciplinary research projects with reliable and practical instruments for integrated research of climate and ecosystems changes on global and regional scales. With its help even an unskilled in programming user is able to process and visualize multidimensional observational and model data through unified web-interface using a common graphical web-browser. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant #13-05-12034, grant #14-05-00502, and integrated project SB RAS #131. References 1. Gordov E.P., Lykosov V.N., Krupchatnikov V.N., Okladnikov I.G., Titov A.G., Shulgina T.M. Computational and information technologies for monitoring and modeling of climate changes and their consequences. - Novosibirsk: Nauka, Siberian branch, 2013. - 195 p. (in Russian) 2. Felice Frankel, Rosalind Reid. Big data: Distilling meaning from data // Nature. Vol. 455. N. 7209. P. 30. 3. T.M. Shulgina, E.P. Gordov, I.G. Okladnikov, A.G., Titov, E.Yu. Genina, N.P. Gorbatenko, I.V. Kuzhevskaya, A.S. Akhmetshina. Software complex for a regional climate change analysis. // Vestnik NGU. Series: Information technologies. 2013. Vol. 11. Issue 1. P. 124-131 (in Russian). 4. I.G. Okladnikov, A.G. Titov, T.M. Shulgina, E.P. Gordov, V.Yu. Bogomolov, Yu.V. Martynova, S.P. Suschenko, A.V. Skvortsov. Software for analysis and visualization of climate change monitoring and forecasting data // Numerical methods and programming, 2013. Vol. 14. P. 123-131 (in Russian).

A Multi-Scale, Integrated Approach to Representing Watershed Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Valeriy; Kim, Jongho; Fatichi, Simone; Katopodes, Nikolaos

2014-05-01

Understanding and predicting process dynamics across a range of scales are fundamental challenges for basic hydrologic research and practical applications. This is particularly true when larger-spatial-scale processes, such as surface-subsurface flow and precipitation, need to be translated to fine space-time scale dynamics of processes, such as channel hydraulics and sediment transport, that are often of primary interest. Inferring characteristics of fine-scale processes from uncertain coarse-scale climate projection information poses additional challenges. We have developed an integrated model simulating hydrological processes, flow dynamics, erosion, and sediment transport, tRIBS+VEGGIE-FEaST. The model targets to take the advantage of the current generation of wealth of data representing watershed topography, vegetation, soil, and landuse, as well as to explore the hydrological effects of physical factors and their feedback mechanisms over a range of scales. We illustrate how the modeling system connects precipitation-hydrologic runoff partition process to the dynamics of flow, erosion, and sedimentation, and how the soil's substrate condition can impact the latter processes, resulting in a non-unique response. We further illustrate an approach to using downscaled climate change information with a process-based model to infer the moments of hydrologic variables in future climate conditions and explore the impact of climate information uncertainty.

Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Management of the San Juan Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rich, P. M.; Weintraub, L. H.; Chen, L.; Herr, J.

2005-12-01

Recent climatic events, including regional drought and increased storm severity, have accentuated concerns that climatic extremes may be increasing in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. As part of the ZeroNet Water-Energy Initiative, the San Juan Decision Support System includes a basin-scale modeling tool to evaluate effects of climate change on water budgets under different climate and management scenarios. The existing Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF) was enhanced with iterative modeling capabilities to enable construction of climate scenarios based on historical and projected data. We applied WARMF to 42,000 km2 (16,000 mi2) of the San Juan Basin (CO, NM) to assess impacts of extended drought and increased temperature on surface water balance. Simulations showed that drought and increased temperature impact water availability for all sectors (agriculture, energy, municipal, industry), and lead to increased frequency of critical shortages. Implementation of potential management alternatives such as "shortage sharing" or degraded water usage during critical years helps improve available water supply. In the face of growing concern over climate change, limited water resources, and competing demands, integrative modeling tools can enable better understanding of complex interconnected systems, and enable better decisions.

A megaregion-scale approach for assessing the impacts of climate change and strategic management decisions in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Stewart, R. J.; Miara, A.; Lu, X.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ehsani, N.; Wollheim, W. M.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Dilekli, N.; Duchin, F.; Gross, B.; Bhatt, V.

2014-12-01

'Megaregions' have been identified as an important new scale of geography for policy decision-making in the United States. These regions extend beyond local boundaries (ie. cities, states) to incorporate areas with linked economies, infrastructure and land-use patterns and shared climate and environmental systems, such as watersheds. The corridor of densely connected metropolitan areas and surrounding hinterlands along the U.S. east coast from Maine to Virginia is the archetype of this type of unit: The Northeast Megaregion. The Northeast faces a unique set of policy challenges including: projections of a wetter, more extreme climate, aging and underfunded infrastructure and economically distressed rural areas. Megaregion-scale policy efforts such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and support for a regional food system have been recognized as strategic tools for climate change mitigation and adaptation, but decision-makers have limited information on the potential consequences of these strategies on the complex natural-human system of the Northeast, under various scenarios of global climate change. We have developed a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) as a framework to provide this type of information. We integrate terrestrial ecosystem, hydrologic, energy system and economic models to investigate scenarios of paired regional socioeconomic pathways and global climate projections. Our initial results suggest that megaregion-scale strategic decisions in the Northeast may have important consequences for both local water management and global climate change mitigation.

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Richard M.; Lall, Upmanu; Cai, Ximing; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Weiskel, Peter K.; Hooper, Richard P.; Matalas, Nicholas C.

2015-06-01

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth's hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vogel, Richard M.; Lall, Upmanu; Cai, Ximing; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Weiskel, Peter K.; Hooper, Richard P.; Matalas, Nicholas C.

2015-01-01

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

CIM-EARTH: Community Integrated Model of Economic and Resource Trajectories for Humankind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, I.; Elliott, J.; Munson, T.; Judd, K.; Moyer, E. J.; Sanstad, A. H.

2010-12-01

We report here on the development of an open source software framework termed CIM-EARTH that is intended to aid decision-making in climate and energy policy. Numerical modeling in support of evaluating policies to address climate change is difficult not only because of inherent uncertainties but because of the differences in scale and modeling approach required for various subcomponents of the system. Economic and climate models are structured quite differently, and while climate forcing can be assumed to be roughly global, climate impacts and the human response to them occur on small spatial scales. Mitigation policies likewise can be applied on scales ranging from the better part of a continent (e.g. a carbon cap-and-trade program for the entire U.S.) to a few hundred km (e.g. statewide renewable portfolio standards and local gasoline taxes). Both spatial and time resolution requirements can be challenging for global economic models. CIM-EARTH is a modular framework based around dynamic general equilibrium models. It is designed as a community tool that will enable study of the environmental benefits, transition costs, capitalization effects, and other consequences of both mitigation policies and unchecked climate change. Modularity enables both integration of highly resolved component sub-models for energy and other key systems and also user-directed choice of tradeoffs between e.g. spatial, sectoral, and time resolution. This poster describes the framework architecture, the current realized version, and plans for future releases. As with other open-source models familiar to the climate community (e.g. CCSM), deliverables will be made publicly available on a regular schedule, and community input is solicited for development of new features and modules.

Climate change: what competencies and which medical education and training approaches?

PubMed

Bell, Erica J

2010-04-30

Much research has been devoted to identifying healthcare needs in a climate-changing world. However, while there are now global and national policy statements about the importance of health workforce development for climate change, little has been published about what competencies might be demanded of practitioners in a climate-changing world. In such a context, this debate and discussion paper aims to explore the nature of key competencies and related opportunities for teaching climate change in medical education and training. Particular emphasis is made on preparation for practice in rural and remote regions likely to be greatly affected by climate change. The paper describes what kinds of competencies for climate change might be included in medical education and training. It explores which curricula, teaching, learning and assessment approaches might be involved. Rather than arguing for major changes to medical education and training, this paper explores well established precedents to offer practical suggestions for where a particular kind of literacy--eco-medical literacy--and related competencies could be naturally integrated into existing elements of medical education and training. The health effects of climate change have, generally, not yet been integrated into medical education and training systems. However, the necessary competencies could be taught by building on existing models, best practice and innovative traditions in medicine. Even in crowded curricula, climate change offers an opportunity to reinforce and extend understandings of how interactions between people and place affect health.

Simulation of Anomalous Regional Climate Events with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.

1999-01-01

The stretched-grid approach provides an efficient down-scaling and consistent interactions between global and regional scales due to using one variable-resolution model for integrations. It is a workable alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. A variable-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) employing a stretched grid, with enhanced resolution over the US as the area of interest, is used for simulating two anomalous regional climate events, the US summer drought of 1988 and flood of 1993. The special mode of integration using a stretched-grid GCM and data assimilation system is developed that allows for imitating the nested-grid framework. The mode is useful for inter-comparison purposes and for underlining the differences between these two approaches. The 1988 and 1993 integrations are performed for the two month period starting from mid May. Regional resolutions used in most of the experiments is 60 km. The major goal and the result of the study is obtaining the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest. The monthly mean prognostic regional fields for the stretched-grid integrations are remarkably close to those of the verifying analyses. Simulated precipitation patterns are successfully verified against gauge precipitation observations. The impact of finer 40 km regional resolution is investigated for the 1993 integration and an example of recovering subregional precipitation is presented. The obtained results show that the global variable-resolution stretched-grid approach is a viable candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Big Data Challenges in Climate Science: Improving the Next-Generation Cyberinfrastructure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John L.; Lee, Tsengdar J.; Mattmann, Chris A.; Lynnes, Christopher S.; Cinquini, Luca; Ramirez, Paul M.; Hart, Andre F.; Williams, Dean N.; Waliser, Duane; Rinsland, Pamela;

Fuel cell on-site integrated energy system parametric analysis of a residential complex

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simons, S. N.

1977-01-01

A parametric energy-use analysis was performed for a large apartment complex served by a fuel cell on-site integrated energy system (OS/IES). The variables parameterized include operating characteristics for four phosphoric acid fuel cells, eight OS/IES energy recovery systems, and four climatic locations. The annual fuel consumption for selected parametric combinations are presented and a breakeven economic analysis is presented for one parametric combination. The results show fuel cell electrical efficiency and system component choice have the greatest effect on annual fuel consumption; fuel cell thermal efficiency and geographic location have less of an effect.

Beyond climate-smart agriculture: toward safe operating spaces for global food systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gulledge, Jay; Neufeldt, Heinrich; Jahn, Margaret M

Agriculture is considered to be climate-smart when it contributes to increasing food security, adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way. This new concept now dominates current discussions in agricultural development because of its capacity to unite the agendas of the agriculture, development and climate change communities under one brand. In this opinion piece authored by scientists from a variety of international agricultural and climate research communities, we argue that the concept needs to be evaluated critically because the relationship between the three dimensions is poorly understood, such that practically any improved agricultural practice can be considered climate-smart. This lack ofmore » clarity may have contributed to the broad appeal of the concept. From the understanding that we must hold ourselves accountable to demonstrably better meet human needs in the short and long term within foreseeable local and planetary limits, we develop a conceptualization of climate-smart agriculture as agriculture that can be shown to bring us closer to safe operating spaces for agricultural and food systems across spatial and temporal scales. Improvements in the management of agricultural systems that bring us significantly closer to safe operating spaces will require transformations in governance and use of our natural resources, underpinned by enabling political, social and economic conditions beyond incremental changes. Establishing scientifically credible indicators and metrics of long-term safe operating spaces in the context of a changing climate and growing social-ecological challenges is critical to creating the societal demand and political will required to motivate deep transformations. Answering questions on how the needed transformational change can be achieved will require actively setting and testing hypotheses to refine and characterize our concepts of safer spaces for social-ecological systems across scales. This effort will demand prioritizing key areas of innovation, such as (1) improved adaptive management and governance of social-ecological systems; (2) development of meaningful and relevant integrated indicators of social-ecological systems; (3) gathering of quality integrated data, information, knowledge and analytical tools for improved models and scenarios in time frames and at scales relevant for decision-making; and (4) establishment of legitimate and empowered science policy dialogues on local to international scales to facilitate decision making informed by metrics and indicators of safe operating spaces.« less

A vicious circle of fire, deforestation and climate change: an integrative study for the Amazon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Rammig, A.; Gumpenberger, M.; Vohland, K.; Poulter, B.; Cramer, W.

2009-04-01

The Amazon rainforest is threatened by deforestation due to wood extraction and agricultural production leading to increasing forest fragmentation and forest degradation. These changes in land surface characteristics and water fluxes are expected to further reduce convective precipitation. Under future climate change the stability of the Amazon rainforest is likely to decrease thus leading to forest dieback (savannization) or forest degradation (secondarization). This puts the Amazon rainforest at risk to reduce the generation of precipitation, to act as a carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot. Fires increased in the past during drought years and in open vegetation thereby further accelerating forest degradation. Deforestation as a result of socioeconomic development in the Amazon basin is projected to further increase in the 21st century and brings climate-induced changes forward. Combined effects of deforestation vs. climate change on the stability of the Amazon rainforest and the role of fire in this system need to be quantified in an integrated study. We present simulation results from future climate (AR4) and deforestation (SimAmazon) experiments using the LPJmL-SPITFIRE vegetation model. Land use change is the main driving factor of forest degradation before 2050, whereas extreme climate change scenarios lead to forest degradation by the end of 2100. Forest fires increase with increasing drought conditions during the 21st century. The resulting effects on vegetation secondarization and savannization and their feedbacks on fire spread and emissions will be presented. The effect of wildfires and intentional burning on forest degradation under future climate and socioeconomic change will be discussed, and recommendations for an integrated land use and fire management are given.

An Integrated Modeling System for Water Resource Management Under Climate Change, Socio-Economic Development and Irrigation Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

SU, Q.; Karthikeyan, R.; Lin, Y.

2017-12-01

Water resources across the world have been increasingly stressed in the past few decades due to the population and economic growth and climate change. Consequently, the competing use of water among agricultural, domestic and industrial sectors is expected to be increasing. In this study, the water stresses under various climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management scenarios are predicted over the period of 2015-2050 using an integrated model, in which the changes in water supply and demand induced by climate change, socio-economic development and irrigation management are dynamically parameterized. Simulations on the case of Texas, Southwest U.S. were performed using the newly developed integrated model, showing that the water stress is projected to be elevated in 2050 over most areas of Texas, particularly at Northern and Southern Plain and metropolitan areas. Climate change represents the most pronounce factor affecting the water supply and irrigation water demand in Texas. The water supply over East Texas is largely reduced in future because of the less precipitation and higher temperature under the climate change scenario, resulting in an elevated irrigation water demand and thus a higher water stress in this region. In contrast, the severity of water shortage in West Texas would be alleviated in future because of climate change. The water shortage index over metropolitan areas would increase by 50-90% under 1.0% migration scenario, suggesting that the population growth in future could also greatly stress the water supply, especially megacities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. The projected increase in manufacturing water demand shows little effects on the water stress. Increasing irrigation rate exacerbates the water stress over irrigated agricultural areas of Texas.

Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

PubMed

Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

2018-06-01

Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

2015-01-01

The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

Modeling Urban Energy Savings Scenarios Using Earth System Microclimate and Urban Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Rose, A.; New, J. R.; Yuan, J.; Omitaomu, O.; Sylvester, L.; Branstetter, M. L.; Carvalhaes, T. M.; Seals, M.; Berres, A.

2017-12-01

We analyze and quantify the relationships among climatic conditions, urban morphology, population, land cover, and energy use so that these relationships can be used to inform energy-efficient urban development and planning. We integrate different approaches across three research areas: earth system modeling; impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and urban planning in order to address three major gaps in the existing capability in these areas: i) neighborhood resolution modeling and simulation of urban micrometeorological processes and their effect on and from regional climate; ii) projections for future energy use under urbanization and climate change scenarios identifying best strategies for urban morphological development and energy savings; iii) analysis and visualization tools to help planners optimally use these projections.

Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty has been a major theme in research regarding climate change from virtually the very beginning. And appropriately characterizing and quantifying uncertainty has been an important aspect of this work. Initially, uncertainties were explored regarding the climate system and how it would react to future forcing. A concomitant area of concern was viewed in the future emissions and concentrations of important forcing agents such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. But, of course we know there are important uncertainties in all aspects of climate change research, not just that of the climate system and emissions. And as climate change research has become more important and of pragmatic concern as possible solutions to the climate change problem are addressed, exploring all the relevant uncertainties has become more relevant and urgent. More recently, over the past five years or so, uncertainties in impacts models, such as agricultural and hydrological models, have received much more attention, through programs such as AgMIP, and some research in this arena has indicated that the uncertainty in the impacts models can be as great or greater than that in the climate system. Still there remains other areas of uncertainty that remain underexplored and/or undervalued. This includes uncertainty in vulnerability and governance. Without more thoroughly exploring these last uncertainties, we likely will underestimate important uncertainties particularly regarding how different systems can successfully adapt to climate change . In this talk I will discuss these different uncertainties and how to combine them to give a complete picture of the total uncertainty individual systems are facing. And as part of this, I will discuss how the uncertainty can be successfully managed even if it is fairly large and deep. Part of my argument will be that large uncertainty is not the enemy, but rather false certainty is the true danger.

Mini-UAV based sensory system for measuring environmental variables in greenhouses.

PubMed

Roldán, Juan Jesús; Joossen, Guillaume; Sanz, David; del Cerro, Jaime; Barrientos, Antonio

2015-02-02

This paper describes the design, construction and validation of a mobile sensory platform for greenhouse monitoring. The complete system consists of a sensory system on board a small quadrotor (i.e., a four rotor mini-UAV). The goals of this system include taking measures of temperature, humidity, luminosity and CO2 concentration and plotting maps of these variables. These features could potentially allow for climate control, crop monitoring or failure detection (e.g., a break in a plastic cover). The sensors have been selected by considering the climate and plant growth models and the requirements for their integration onboard the quadrotor. The sensors layout and placement have been determined through a study of quadrotor aerodynamics and the influence of the airflows from its rotors. All components of the system have been developed, integrated and tested through a set of field experiments in a real greenhouse. The primary contributions of this paper are the validation of the quadrotor as a platform for measuring environmental variables and the determination of the optimal location of sensors on a quadrotor.

Mini-UAV Based Sensory System for Measuring Environmental Variables in Greenhouses

PubMed Central

Roldán, Juan Jesús; Joossen, Guillaume; Sanz, David; del Cerro, Jaime; Barrientos, Antonio

2015-01-01

This paper describes the design, construction and validation of a mobile sensory platform for greenhouse monitoring. The complete system consists of a sensory system on board a small quadrotor (i.e., a four rotor mini-UAV). The goals of this system include taking measures of temperature, humidity, luminosity and CO2 concentration and plotting maps of these variables. These features could potentially allow for climate control, crop monitoring or failure detection (e.g., a break in a plastic cover). The sensors have been selected by considering the climate and plant growth models and the requirements for their integration onboard the quadrotor. The sensors layout and placement have been determined through a study of quadrotor aerodynamics and the influence of the airflows from its rotors. All components of the system have been developed, integrated and tested through a set of field experiments in a real greenhouse. The primary contributions of this paper are the validation of the quadrotor as a platform for measuring environmental variables and the determination of the optimal location of sensors on a quadrotor. PMID:25648713

Using Geographic Information Systems to Evaluate Energy Initiatives in Austere Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

conducting economic analysis of energy reduction initiatives. This research examined the energy savings potential of improving the thermal properties...shelter improvements in any climate and location in the world. Specifically, solar flies developed through Solar Integrated Power Shelter System...94 Improvements to the Existing Model

Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Zonal Asymmetries on the Tropospheric Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tweedy, Olga; Waugh, Darryn; Li, Feng; Oman, Luke

2015-01-01

The depletion and recovery of Antarctic ozone plays a major role in changes of Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropospheric climate. Recent studies indicate that the lack of polar ozone asymmetries in chemistry climate models (CCM) leads to a weaker and warmer Antarctic vortex, and smaller trends in the tropospheric mid-latitude jet and the surface pressure. However, the tropospheric response to ozone asymmetries is not well understood. In this study we report on a series of integrations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to further examine the effect of zonal asymmetries on the state of the stratosphere and troposphere. Integrations with the full, interactive stratospheric chemistry are compared against identical simulations using the same CCM except that (1) the monthly mean zonal mean stratospheric ozone from first simulation is prescribed and (2) ozone is relaxed to the monthly mean zonal mean ozone on a three day time scale. To analyze the tropospheric response to ozone asymmetries, we examine trends and quantify the differences in temperatures, zonal wind and surface pressure among the integrations.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptionsmore » about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.« less

Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance.

PubMed

Stone, Roger C; Meinke, Holger

2005-11-29

Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production.

Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance

PubMed Central

Stone, Roger C; Meinke, Holger

2005-01-01

Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production. PMID:16433097

Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

2017-12-01

Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

Social cost considerations and legal constraints in implementing modular integrated utility systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lede, N. W.; Dixon, H. W.; King, O.; Hill, D. K.

1974-01-01

Social costs associated with the design, demonstration, and implementation of the Modular Integrated Utility System are considered including the social climate of communities, leadership patterns, conflicts and cleavages, specific developmental values, MIUS utility goal assessment, and the suitability of certian alternative options for use in a program of implementation. General considerations are discussed in the field of socio-technological planning. These include guidelines for understanding the conflict and diversity; some relevant goal choices and ideas useful to planners of the MIUS facility.

Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Chini, L.; Hurtt, G.; Collins, W. D.

2018-01-01

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. Here we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalent to 80% of the net effects of CO2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850-2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. We conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.

Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

DOE PAGES

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; ...

2018-01-03

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. In this paper, we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO 2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalentmore » to 80% of the net effects of CO 2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850–2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. Finally, we conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.« less

Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.

Previous studies have examined land use change as a driver of global change, but the translation of land use change into land cover conversion has been largely unconstrained. In this paper, we quantify the effects of land cover conversion uncertainty on the global carbon and climate system using the integrated Earth System Model. Our experiments use identical land use change data and vary land cover conversions to quantify associated uncertainty in carbon and climate estimates. Land cover conversion uncertainty is large, constitutes a 5 ppmv range in estimated atmospheric CO 2 in 2004, and generates carbon uncertainty that is equivalentmore » to 80% of the net effects of CO 2 and climate and 124% of the effects of nitrogen deposition during 1850–2004. Additionally, land cover uncertainty generates differences in local surface temperature of over 1°C. Finally, we conclude that future studies addressing land use, carbon, and climate need to constrain and reduce land cover conversion uncertainties.« less

Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

DOE PAGES

Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong; Marten, Elke Hodson; ...

2018-01-06

Our paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. WE conducted an analysis using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expendituresmore » decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.« less

Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong; Marten, Elke Hodson

Our paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. WE conducted an analysis using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expendituresmore » decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.« less

Effect of Integrated Feedback on Classroom Climate of Secondary School Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patel, Nilesh Kumar

2018-01-01

This study aimed at finding out the effect of Integrated feedback on Classroom climate of secondary school teachers. This research is experimental in nature. Non-equivalent control group design suggested by Stanley and Campbell (1963) was used for the experiment. Integrated feedback was treatment and independent variable, Classroom climate was…

Photoacoustic CO2 sensor system: design and potential for miniaturization and integration in silicon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, J.; Wöllenstein, J.

2015-05-01

The detection of CO2 indoors has a large impact on today's sensor market. The ambient room climate is important for human health and wellbeing. The CO2 concentration is a main indicator for indoor climate and correlates with the number of persons inside a room. People in Europe spend more than 90% of their time indoors. This leads to a high demand for miniaturized and energy efficient CO2 sensors. To realize small and energy-efficient mass-market sensors, we develop novel miniaturized photoacoustic sensor systems with optimized design for real-time and selective CO2 detection. The sensor system consists of two chambers, a measurement and a detection chamber. The detection chamber consists of an integrated pressure sensor under special gas atmosphere. As pressure sensor we use a commercially available cell phone microphone. We describe a possible miniaturization process of the developed system by regarding the possibility of integration of all sensor parts. The system is manufactured in precision mechanics with IR-optical sapphire windows as optical connections. During the miniaturization process the sapphire windows are replaced by Si chips with a special IR anti-reflection coating. The developed system is characterized in detail with gas measurements and optical transmission investigations. The results of the characterization process offer a high potential for further miniaturization with high capability for mass market applications.

Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations - the EALCO model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Trishchenko, A.

2004-05-01

Ecosystems are intrinsically dynamic and interact with climate at a highly integrated level. Climate variables are the main driving factors in controlling the ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes including energy balance, water balance, photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient cycling. On the other hand, ecosystems function as an integrity and feedback on the climate system through their control on surface radiation balance, energy partitioning, and greenhouse gases exchange. To improve our capability in climate change impact assessment, a comprehensive ecosystem model is required to address the many interactions between climate change and ecosystems. In addition, different ecosystems can have very different responses to the climate change and its variation. To provide more scientific support for ecosystem impact assessment at national scale, it is imperative that ecosystem models have the capability of assimilating the large scale geospatial information including satellite observations, GIS datasets, and climate model outputs or reanalysis. The EALCO model (Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations) is developed for such purposes. EALCO includes the comprehensive interactions among ecosystem processes and climate, and assimilates a variety of remote sensing products and GIS database. It provides both national and local scale model outputs for ecosystem responses to climate change including radiation and energy balances, water conditions and hydrological cycles, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas exchange, and nutrient (N) cycling. These results form the foundation for the assessment of climate change impact on ecosystems, their services, and adaptation options. In this poster, the main algorithms for the radiation, energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen simulations were diagrammed. Sample input data layers at Canada national scale were illustrated. Model outputs including the Canada wide spatial distributions of net radiation, evapotranspiration, gross primary production, net primary production, and net ecosystem production were discussed.

Major threats of pollution and climate change to global coastal ecosystems and enhanced management for sustainability.

PubMed

Lu, Yonglong; Yuan, Jingjing; Lu, Xiaotian; Su, Chao; Zhang, Yueqing; Wang, Chenchen; Cao, Xianghui; Li, Qifeng; Su, Jilan; Ittekkot, Venugopalan; Garbutt, Richard Angus; Bush, Simon; Fletcher, Stephen; Wagey, Tonny; Kachur, Anatolii; Sweijd, Neville

2018-08-01

Coastal zone is of great importance in the provision of various valuable ecosystem services. However, it is also sensitive and vulnerable to environmental changes due to high human populations and interactions between the land and ocean. Major threats of pollution from over enrichment of nutrients, increasing metals and persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and climate change have led to severe ecological degradation in the coastal zone, while few studies have focused on the combined impacts of pollution and climate change on the coastal ecosystems at the global level. A global overview of nutrients, metals, POPs, and major environmental changes due to climate change and their impacts on coastal ecosystems was carried out in this study. Coasts of the Eastern Atlantic and Western Pacific were hotspots of concentrations of several pollutants, and mostly affected by warming climate. These hotspots shared the same features of large populations, heavy industry and (semi-) closed sea. Estimation of coastal ocean capital, integrated management of land-ocean interaction in the coastal zone, enhancement of integrated global observation system, and coastal ecosystem-based management can play effective roles in promoting sustainable management of coastal marine ecosystems. Enhanced management from the perspective of mitigating pollution and climate change was proposed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The engineering options for mitigating the climate impacts of aviation.

PubMed

Williams, Victoria

2007-12-15

Aviation is a growing contributor to climate change, with unique impacts due to the altitude of emissions. If existing traffic growth rates continue, radical engineering solutions will be required to prevent aviation becoming one of the dominant contributors to climate change. This paper reviews the engineering options for mitigating the climate impacts of aviation using aircraft and airspace technologies. These options include not only improvements in fuel efficiency, which would reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but also measures to reduce non-CO2 impacts including the formation of persistent contrails. Integrated solutions to optimize environmental performance will require changes to airframes, engines, avionics, air traffic control systems and airspace design. While market-based measures, such as offset schemes and emissions trading, receive growing attention, this paper sets out the crucial role of engineering in the challenge to develop a 'green air traffic system'.

Earth System Grid II, Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Middleton, Don

2006-08-01

The Earth System Grid (ESG) II project, funded by the Department of Energy’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program, has transformed climate data into community resources. ESG II has accomplished this goal by creating a virtual collaborative environment that links climate centers and users around the world to models and data via a computing Grid, which is based on the Department of Energy’s supercomputing resources and the Internet. Our project’s success stems from partnerships between climate researchers and computer scientists to advance basic and applied research in the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences. By interfacing with other climate science projects,more » we have learned that commonly used methods to manage and remotely distribute data among related groups lack infrastructure and under-utilize existing technologies. Knowledge and expertise gained from ESG II have helped the climate community plan strategies to manage a rapidly growing data environment more effectively. Moreover, approaches and technologies developed under the ESG project have impacted datasimulation integration in other disciplines, such as astrophysics, molecular biology and materials science.« less

The mediating role of integration of safety by activity versus operator between organizational culture and safety climate.

PubMed

Auzoult, Laurent; Gangloff, Bernard

2018-04-20

In this study, we analyse the impact of the organizational culture and introduce a new variable, the integration of safety, which relates to the modalities for the implementation and adoption of safety in the work process, either through the activity or by the operator. One hundred and eighty employees replied to a questionnaire measuring the organizational climate, the safety climate and the integration of safety. We expected that implementation centred on the activity or on the operator would mediate the relationship between the organizational culture and the safety climate. The results support our assumptions. A regression analysis highlights the positive impact on the safety climate of organizational values of the 'rule' and 'support' type, as well as of integration by the operator and activity. Moreover, integration mediates the relation between these variables. The results suggest to take into account organizational culture and to introduce different implementation modalities to improve the safety climate.

Solving the Global Climate Monitoring Problem in the Atmosphere: Towards SI-tied Climate Records with Integrated Uncertainty Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchengast, G.; Schwaerz, M.; Fritzer, J.; Schwarz, J.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Steiner, A. K.

2013-12-01

Monitoring the atmosphere to gain accurate and long-term stable records of essential climate variables (ECVs) such as temperature and greenhouse gases is the backbone of contemporary atmospheric and climate science. Earth observation from space is the key to obtain such data globally in the atmosphere. Currently, however, not any existing satellite-based atmospheric ECV record can serve as authoritative benchmark over months to decades so that climate variability and change in the atmosphere are not yet reliably monitored. Radio occultation (RO) using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals provides a unique opportunity to solve this problem in the free atmosphere (from ~1-2 km altitude upwards) for core ECVs: the thermodynamic variables temperature and pressure, and to some degree water vapor, which are key parameters for tracking climate change. On top of RO we have recently conceived next-generation methods, microwave and infrared-laser occultation and nadir-looking infrared-laser reflectometry. These can monitor a full set of thermo-dynamic ECVs (incl. wind) as well as the greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane as main drivers of climate change; for the latter we also target the boundary layer for tracking carbon sources and sinks. We briefly introduce to why the atmospheric climate monitoring challenge is unsolved so far and why just the above methods have the capabilities to break through. We then focus on RO, which already provided more than a decade of observations. RO accurately measures time delays from refraction of GNSS signals during atmospheric occultation events. This enables to tie RO-derived ECVs and their uncertainty to fundamental time standards, effectively the SI second, and to their unique long-term stability and narrow uncertainty. However, despite impressive advances since the pioneering RO mission GPS/Met in the mid-1990ties no rigorous trace from fundamental time to the ECVs (duly accounting also for relevant side influences) exists so far. Establishing such a trace first-time in form of the Reference Occultation Processing System rOPS, providing reference RO data for climate science and applications, is therefore a current cornerstone endeavor at the Wegener Center over 2011 to 2015, supported also by colleagues from other key groups at EUMETSAT Darmstadt, UCAR Boulder, DMI Copenhagen, ECMWF Reading, IAP Moscow, AIUB Berne, and RMIT Melbourne. With the rOPS we undertake to process the full chain from the SI-tied raw data to the atmospheric ECVs with integrated uncertainty propagation. We summarize where we currently stand in quantifying RO accuracy and long-term stability and then discuss the concept, development status and initial results from the rOPS, with emphasis on its novel capability to provide SI-tied reference data with integrated uncertainty estimation. We comment how these data can provide ground-breaking support to challenges such as climate model evaluation, anthropogenic change detection and attribution, and calibration of complementary climate observing systems.

Applying a Comprehensive Contextual Climate Change Vulnerability Framework to New Zealand's Tourism Industry.

PubMed

Hopkins, Debbie

2015-03-01

Conceptualisations of 'vulnerability' vary amongst scholarly communities, contributing to a wide variety of applications. Research investigating vulnerability to climate change has often excluded non-climatic changes which may contribute to degrees of vulnerability perceived or experienced. This paper introduces a comprehensive contextual vulnerability framework which incorporates physical, social, economic and political factors which could amplify or reduce vulnerability. The framework is applied to New Zealand's tourism industry to explore its value in interpreting a complex, human-natural environment system with multiple competing vulnerabilities. The comprehensive contextual framework can inform government policy and industry decision making, integrating understandings of climate change within the broader context of internal and external social, physical, economic, and institutional stressors.

A reduced-form approach for representing the impacts of wind and solar PV deployment on the structure and operation of the electricity system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Nils; Strubegger, Manfred; McPherson, Madeleine

In many climate change mitigation scenarios, integrated assessment models of the energy and climate systems rely heavily on renewable energy technologies with variable and uncertain generation, such as wind and solar PV, to achieve substantial decarbonization of the electricity sector. However, these models often include very little temporal resolution and thus have difficulty in representing the integration costs that arise from mismatches between electricity supply and demand. The global integrated assessment model, MESSAGE, has been updated to explicitly model the trade-offs between variable renewable energy (VRE) deployment and its impacts on the electricity system, including the implications for electricity curtailment,more » backup capacity, and system flexibility. These impacts have been parameterized using a reduced-form approach, which allows VRE integration impacts to be quantified on a regional basis. In addition, thermoelectric technologies were updated to include two modes of operation, baseload and flexible, to better account for the cost, efficiency, and availability penalties associated with flexible operation. In this paper, the modeling approach used in MESSAGE is explained and the implications for VRE deployment in mitigation scenarios are assessed. Three important stylized facts associated with integrating high VRE shares are successfully reproduced by our modeling approach: (1) the significant reduction in the utilization of non-VRE power plants; (2) the diminishing role for traditional baseload generators, such as nuclear and coal, and the transition to more flexible technologies; and (3) the importance of electricity storage and hydrogen electrolysis in facilitating the deployment of VRE.« less

Climate Education at the University of Hamburg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilly, Oliver; Stammer, Detlef; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

2010-05-01

The new graduate School of Integrated Climate Sciences (www.sicss.de) at the KlimaCampus of the University of Hamburg was opened at October 20, 2009 and includes a 2-yr MSc (120 ECTS, 30 compulsory, 90 eligible) and 3-yr doctoral program (12 ECTS). About 40 students were enrolled in early 2010. The interdisciplinary MSc program is based on a number of disciplines such as meteorology, geophysics, oceanography, geosciences and also economics and social sciences. These disciplines are required to address the faced key issues related to climate change effectively. The graduate school is guiding pupils and BSc students with competence in maths and physics on how to become a climate expert. Acquisition is done internationally at fairs, uni days and dircectly at schools and intuitions for higher education. BSc degree in the disciplines listed above is set for positive application. Climate experts are needed for both research and the professional world outside the university and research institutions. In accordance, connection within and outside the university are continuously explored and soft skills for the communication to politics and the public's are included in the MSc and PhD curricula. Since the graduate school was established within the cluster of excellence ‘Integrated Climate Analysis and Predication' (www.clisap.de), this school represents a prototype for graduate programs at the University of Hamburg. Advantages and limitations of this Climate System School concept will be discussed.

Developing a Carbon Observing System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, B., III

2015-12-01

There is a clear need to better understand and predict future climate change, so that science can more confidently inform climate policy, including adaptation planning and future mitigation strategies. Understanding carbon cycle feedbacks, and the relationship between emissions (fossil and land use) and the resulting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations in a changing climate has been recognized as an important goal by the IPCC. The existing surface greenhouse gas observing networks provide accurate and precise measurements of background values, but they are not configured to target the extended, complex and dynamic regions of the carbon budget. Space Agencies around the globe are committed to CO2 and CH4 observations: GOSAT-1/2, OCO-2/3, MERLin, TanSat, and CarbonSat. In addition to these Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions, a new mission in Geostationary Orbit (GEO), geoCARB, which would provide mapping-like measurements of carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide concentrations over major land areas, has been recently proposed to the NASA Venture Program. These pioneering missions do not provide the spatial/temporal coverage to answer the key carbon-climate questions at process relevant scales nor do they address the distribution and quantification of anthropogenic sources at urban scales. They do demonstrate, however, that a well-planned future system of system integrating space-based LEO and GEO missions with extensive in situ observations could provide the accuracy, spatial resolution, and coverage needed to address critical open issues in the carbon-climate system. Dr. Diana Wickland devoted enormous energy in developing a comprehensive apprioach to understand the global carbon cycle; she understood well that an integrated, coordinated, international approach is needed. This shines through in her recent contribution in co-chairing the team that produced the "CEOS Strategy for Carbon Observations from Space." A NASA-funded community workshop in March 2015 addressed issues and prioritzed a set of research and observational needs in the study of the Carbon-Climate System. This paper will refect upon the past 30 plus years of carbon research supported by NASA and Dr. Wickland's role, and it will conclude with the findings of the March 2015 Workshop.

Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.

2011-12-01

The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed and used in collaboration with regional stakeholders. Possible adaptation and mitigation strategies were be identified. The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean area, to be published in September 2011 and will make a powerful contribution to the definition and evaluation of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Quantifying changes in water use and groundwater availability in a megacity using novel integrated systems modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyndman, D. W.; Xu, T.; Deines, J. M.; Cao, G.; Nagelkirk, R.; Viña, A.; McConnell, W.; Basso, B.; Kendall, A. D.; Li, S.; Luo, L.; Lupi, F.; Ma, D.; Winkler, J. A.; Yang, W.; Zheng, C.; Liu, J.

2017-08-01

Water sustainability in megacities is a growing challenge with far-reaching effects. Addressing sustainability requires an integrated, multidisciplinary approach able to capture interactions among hydrology, population growth, and socioeconomic factors and to reflect changes due to climate variability and land use. We developed a new systems modeling framework to quantify the influence of changes in land use, crop growth, and urbanization on groundwater storage for Beijing, China. This framework was then used to understand and quantify causes of observed decreases in groundwater storage from 1993 to 2006, revealing that the expansion of Beijing's urban areas at the expense of croplands has enhanced recharge while reducing water lost to evapotranspiration, partially ameliorating groundwater declines. The results demonstrate the efficacy of such a systems approach to quantify the impacts of changes in climate and land use on water sustainability for megacities, while providing a quantitative framework to improve mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help address future water challenges.

A computer network with scada and case tools for on-line process control in greenhouses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gieling, Th. H.; van Meurs, W. Th. M.; Janssen, H. J. J.

Climate control computers in greenhouses are used to control heating and ventilation, supply water and dilute and dispense nutrients. They integrate models into optimally controlled systems. This paper describes how information technology, as in use in other sectors of industry, is applied to greenhouse control. The introduction of modern software and hardware concepts in horticulture adds power and extra opportunities to climate control in greenhouses.

A computer network with SCADA and case tools for on-line process control in greenhouses.

PubMed

Gieling ThH; van Meurs WTh; Janssen, H J

1996-01-01

Climate control computers in greenhouses are used to control heating and ventilation, supply water and dilute and dispense nutrients. They integrate models into optimally controlled systems. This paper describes how information technology, as in use in other sectors of industry, is applied to greenhouse control. The introduction of modern software and hardware concepts in horticulture adds power and extra oppurtunities to climate contol in greenhouses.

The Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT)

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar

2004-01-01

I represent a nascent effort in western North America that is committed to improving integration of climate-related research and its societal implications. We go under the name of CIRMOUNT, that is, Consortium for Integrated Climate-Related Research in Western North American Mountains. In a sense, CIRMOUNT is a North American answer (in the affirmative) to Thomas...

Mainstreaming of Climate Change into the Ghanaian Tertiary Educational System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyarko, B. K.

2013-12-01

The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognise that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Various Ministries should be challenged to develop and integrate climate change into education policies. In the design of curriculum, there is a need to integrate Climate Change Education into curricula without compromising already overstretched programmes of study. There is a need to encourage and enhance innovative teaching approaches such as Problem-based learning (PBL) is an approach that challenges students to learn through engagement in a real problem. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to practicalize Climate Change education.

MoGIRE: A Model for Integrated Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynaud, A.; Leenhardt, D.

2008-12-01

Climate change and growing water needs have resulted in many parts of the world in water scarcity problems that must by managed by public authorities. Hence, policy-makers are more and more often asked to define and to implement water allocation rules between competitive users. This requires to develop new tools aiming at designing those rules for various scenarios of context (climatic, agronomic, economic). If models have been developed for each type of water use however, very few integrated frameworks link these different uses, while such an integrated approach is a relevant stake for designing regional water and land policies. The lack of such integrated models can be explained by the difficulty of integrating models developed by very different disciplines and by the problem of scale change (collecting data on large area, arbitrate between the computational tractability of models and their level of aggregation). However, modelers are more and more asked to deal with large basin scales while analyzing some policy impacts at very high detailed levels. These contradicting objectives require to develop new modeling tools. The CALVIN economically-driven optimization model developed for managing water in California is a good example of this type of framework, Draper et al. (2003). Recent reviews of the literature on integrated water management at the basin level include Letcher et al. (2007) or Cai (2008). We present here an original framework for integrated water management at the river basin scale called MoGIRE ("Modèle pour la Gestion Intégrée de la Ressource en Eau"). It is intended to optimize water use at the river basin level and to evaluate scenarios (agronomic, climatic or economic) for a better planning of agricultural and non-agricultural water use. MoGIRE includes a nodal representation of the water network. Agricultural, urban and environmental water uses are also represented using mathematical programming and econometric approaches. The model then optimizes at each date (10 days step) the allocation of water across agricultural and urban water demands in order to maximize the social surplus derived from water consumption given the constraints imposed by the water network. An application of the model is proposed for the Neste system located in South-West of France. 67 regions competing for water allocation have been identified in the Neste system. Those regions are characterized by specific cropping systems, specific climate and soil characteristics and by their connections to the water network. The model, including the nodal representation of the water network, has been coded using the algebraic modeling language GAMS. We are currently analyzing the robustness of the approach through scenario testing. Keywords : Integrated water management, optimization-simulation model, agronomic-economic modeling, river basin.

Operation of hydropower generation systems in the Alps under future climate and socio-economic drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2015-04-01

Alpine hydropower systems are an important source of renewable energy for many countries in Europe. In Switzerland, for instance, they represent the most important domestic source of renewable energy (around 55%). However, future hydropower production may be threatened by unprecedented challenges, such as a decreasing water availability, due to climate change (CC) and associated glacier retreat, and uncertain operating conditions, such as future power needs and highly fluctuating demand on the energy market. This second aspect has gained increasingly relevance since the massive introduction of solar and wind generating systems in the portfolios of many European countries. Because hydropower systems have the potential to provide backup storage of energy to compensate for fluctuations that are typical, for instance, of solar and wind generation systems, it is important to investigate how the increased demand for flexible operation, together with climate change challenge and fluctuating markets, can impact their operating policies. The Swiss Competence Center on Supply of Electricity (www.sccer-soe.ch) has been recently established to explore new potential paths for the development of future power generation systems. In this context, we develop modelling and optimization tools to design and assess new operation strategies for hydropower systems to increase their reliability, flexibility, and robustness to future operation conditions. In particular, we develop an advanced modelling framework for the integrated simulation of the operation of hydropower plants, which accounts for CC-altered streamflow regimes, new demand and market conditions, as well as new boundary conditions for operation (e.g., aquatic ecosystem conservation). The model construction consists of two primary components: a physically based and spatially distributed hydrological model, which describes the relevant hydrological processes at the basin scale, and an agent based decision model, which describes the behavior of hydropower operators. This integrated model allows to quantitatively explore possible trajectories of future evolution of the hydropower systems under the combined effect of climate and socio-economic drivers. In a multi-objective perspective, the model can test how different hydropower operation strategies perform in terms of power production, reliability and flexibility of supply, profitability of operation, and ecosystem conservation. This contribution presents the methodological framework designed to formulate the integrated model, its expected outcomes, and some preliminary results on a pilot study.

Integrated impacts of future electricity mix scenarios on select southeastern US water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D.; Meldrum, J.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Davis, Michelle

2013-09-01

Recent studies on the relationship between thermoelectric cooling and water resources have been made at coarse geographic resolution and do not adequately evaluate the localized water impacts on specific rivers and water bodies. We present the application of an integrated electricity generation-water resources planning model of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) rivers based on the regional energy deployment system (ReEDS) and the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) system. A future scenario that includes a growing population and warmer, drier regional climate shows that benefits from a low-carbon, electricity fuel-mix could help maintain river temperatures below once-through coal-plants. These impacts are shown to be localized, as the cumulative impacts of different electric fuel-mix scenarios are muted in this relatively water-rich region, even in a warmer and drier future climate.

What it takes to get proactive: An integrative multilevel model of the antecedents of personal initiative.

PubMed

Hong, Ying; Liao, Hui; Raub, Steffen; Han, Joo Hun

2016-05-01

Building upon and extending Parker, Bindl, and Strauss's (2010) theory of proactive motivation, we develop an integrated, multilevel model to examine how contextual factors shape employees' proactive motivational states and, through these proactive motivational states, influence their personal initiative behavior. Using data from a sample of hotels collected from 3 sources and over 2 time periods, we show that establishment-level initiative-enhancing human resource management (HRM) systems were positively related to departmental initiative climate, which was positively related to employee personal initiative through employee role-breadth self-efficacy. Further, department-level empowering leadership was positively related to initiative climate only when initiative-enhancing HRM systems were low. These findings offer interesting implications for research on personal initiative and for the management of employee proactivity in organizations. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

WRF Test on IBM BG/L:Toward High Performance Application to Regional Climate Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, H S

The effects of climate change will mostly be felt on local to regional scales (Solomon et al., 2007). To develop better forecast skill in regional climate change, an integrated multi-scale modeling capability (i.e., a pair of global and regional climate models) becomes crucially important in understanding and preparing for the impacts of climate change on the temporal and spatial scales that are critical to California's and nation's future environmental quality and economical prosperity. Accurate knowledge of detailed local impact on the water management system from climate change requires a resolution of 1km or so. To this end, a high performancemore » computing platform at the petascale appears to be an essential tool in providing such local scale information to formulate high quality adaptation strategies for local and regional climate change. As a key component of this modeling system at LLNL, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is implemented and tested on the IBM BG/L machine. The objective of this study is to examine the scaling feature of WRF on BG/L for the optimal performance, and to assess the numerical accuracy of WRF solution on BG/L.« less

Integrated assessment in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodess, C. M.; Agnew, M. D.; Hemming, D.; Giannakopoulos, C.

2012-04-01

The heterogeneous nature of the Mediterranean environment, combined with a wide diversity of economic, social and cultural identities, make this region particularly amenable to integrated research on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptive response. Within the framework of the EU FP7 CIRCE project, eleven case-study locations were selected to reflect three generic environments (urban, rural and coastal), to quantify current and future climate change and to assess the potential consequences to human communities and ecosystems at the regional to local scale. The case studies (Athens, Beirut, Alexandria, Tuscany, Apulia, Tel Hadya, Judean Foothills, Gulf of Valencia, Gulf of Oran, Gulf of Gabes, West Nile Delta) were chosen to reflect the east-west and north-south contrasts across the Mediterranean, using common selection criteria. A rigorous common framework, referred to as the CIRCE Case studies Integrating Framework was developed to facilitate a structured and systematic basis for identifying and selecting indicators. Within this framework, climate dynamics is viewed as a key driver of changes in social and biogeophysical systems and is modulated by the inherent dynamics of these systems. The top-down, indicator-based approach was complemented by a bottom-up approach involving local and regional stakeholders. A participatory level of involvement was aimed for, with stakeholder dialogue on an informal basis throughout the project, culminating in a series of more formal regional stakeholder workshops. Identification and construction of physical and socio-economic indicators was the most challenging and time-consuming aspect of the case-study work. A detailed set of selection criteria was defined and the process of reviewing and refining indicators was iterative. Nonetheless, a number of data and methodological challenges were encountered. Despite these issues, indicator linkages diagrams provided a useful preparatory stage for structuring the integrated assessment for each case study. In the first and major assessment stage, impacts and vulnerability due to exposure to hazards associated with current and recent climate variability and change were explored using observed data. This then provided the context for considering future changes. The latter work was based on climate projections derived from the CIRCE global and regional climate model simulations which have the main novel characteristic of incorporating coupling between the Mediterranean Sea and atmosphere. Natural and human systems in all eleven case studies were found to be vulnerable to current climate variability and change as well as to social dynamics or drivers. The climate projections of increases in mean and extreme high temperature and decreases in precipitation are considered to be robust, although there is uncertainty with regards to the magnitude of change. They indicate that all case studies will experience continuing and increasing vulnerability to climate change in the absence of mitigation or adaptation. Projections for other extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation and flooding, are highly uncertain, but any increase in such events would further increase vulnerability. At the same time, social dynamics and drivers such as population growth (at least in the short term and in the southern Mediterranean) are likely to further increase vulnerability.

Coupled Crop/Hydrology Model to Estimate Expanded Irrigation Impact on Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handyside, C. T.; Cruise, J.

2017-12-01

A coupled agricultural and hydrologic systems model is used to examine the environmental impact of irrigation in the Southeast. A gridded crop model for the Southeast is used to determine regional irrigation demand. This irrigation demand is used in a regional hydrologic model to determine the hydrologic impact of irrigation. For the Southeast to maintain/expand irrigated agricultural production and provide adaptation to climate change and climate variability it will require integrated agricultural and hydrologic system models that can calculate irrigation demand and the impact of the this demand on the river hydrology. These integrated models can be used as (1) historical tools to examine vulnerability of expanded irrigation to past climate extremes (2) future tools to examine the sustainability of expanded irrigation under future climate scenarios and (3) a real-time tool to allow dynamic water resource management. Such tools are necessary to assure stakeholders and the public that irrigation can be carried out in a sustainable manner. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version of the crop modeling system (DSSAT). The gridded model is referred to as GriDSSAT. The irrigation demand from GriDSSAT is coupled to a regional hydrologic model developed by the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center of the USDA Forest Service) (WaSSI). The crop model provides the dynamic irrigation demand which is a function of the weather. The hydrologic model includes all other competing uses of water. Examples of use the crop model coupled with the hydrologic model include historical analyses which show the change in hydrology as additional acres of irrigated land are added to water sheds. The first order change in hydrology is computed in terms of changes in the Water Availability Stress Index (WASSI) which is the ratio of water demand (irrigation, public water supply, industrial use, etc.) and water availability from the hydrologic model. Also, statistics such as the number of times certain WASSI thresholds are exceeded are calculated to show the impact of expanded irrigation during times of hydrologic drought and the coincident use of water by other sectors. Also, integrated downstream impacts of irrigation are also calculated through changes in flows through the whole river systems.

An integrated water-energy-food-livelihoods approach for assessing environmental livelihood security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biggs, E. M.; Duncan, J.; Boruff, B.; Bruce, E.; Neef, A.; McNeill, K.; van Ogtrop, F. F.; Haworth, B.; Duce, S.; Horsley, J.; Pauli, N.; Curnow, J.; Imanari, Y.

2015-12-01

Environmental livelihood security refers to the challenges of maintaining global food security and universal access to freshwater and energy to sustain livelihoods and promote inclusive economic growth, whilst sustaining key environmental systems' functionality, particularly under variable climatic regimes. Environmental security is a concept complementary to sustainable development, and considers the increased vulnerability people have to certain environmental stresses, such as climatic change. Bridging links between the core component concepts of environmental security is integral to future human security, and in an attempt to create this bridge, the nexus approach to human protection has been created, where water resource availability underpins food, water and energy security. The water-energy-food nexus has an influential role in attaining human security, yet little research has made the link between the nexus and livelihoods. In this research we provide a critical appraisal of the synergies between water-energy-food nexus framings and sustainable livelihoods approaches, both of which aim to promote sustainable development. In regions where livelihoods are dependent on environmental conditions, the concept of sustainable development is critical for ensuring future environmental and human security. Given our appraisal we go on to develop an integrated framework for assessing environmental livelihood security of multiscale and multi-level systems. This framework provides a tangible approach for assessing changes in the water-energy-food-livelihood indicators of a system. Examples of where system applications may occur are discussed for the Southeast Asia and Oceania region. Our approach will be particularly useful for policy-makers to inform evidence-based decision-making, especially in localities where climate change increases the vulnerability of impoverished communities and extenuates environmental livelihood insecurity.

Climatic response variability and machine learning: development of a modular technology framework for predicting bio-climatic change in pacific northwest ecosystems"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seamon, E.; Gessler, P. E.; Flathers, E.

2015-12-01

The creation and use of large amounts of data in scientific investigations has become common practice. Data collection and analysis for large scientific computing efforts are not only increasing in volume as well as number, the methods and analysis procedures are evolving toward greater complexity (Bell, 2009, Clarke, 2009, Maimon, 2010). In addition, the growth of diverse data-intensive scientific computing efforts (Soni, 2011, Turner, 2014, Wu, 2008) has demonstrated the value of supporting scientific data integration. Efforts to bridge this gap between the above perspectives have been attempted, in varying degrees, with modular scientific computing analysis regimes implemented with a modest amount of success (Perez, 2009). This constellation of effects - 1) an increasing growth in the volume and amount of data, 2) a growing data-intensive science base that has challenging needs, and 3) disparate data organization and integration efforts - has created a critical gap. Namely, systems of scientific data organization and management typically do not effectively enable integrated data collaboration or data-intensive science-based communications. Our research efforts attempt to address this gap by developing a modular technology framework for data science integration efforts - with climate variation as the focus. The intention is that this model, if successful, could be generalized to other application areas. Our research aim focused on the design and implementation of a modular, deployable technology architecture for data integration. Developed using aspects of R, interactive python, SciDB, THREDDS, Javascript, and varied data mining and machine learning techniques, the Modular Data Response Framework (MDRF) was implemented to explore case scenarios for bio-climatic variation as they relate to pacific northwest ecosystem regions. Our preliminary results, using historical NETCDF climate data for calibration purposes across the inland pacific northwest region (Abatzoglou, Brown, 2011), show clear ecosystems shifting over a ten-year period (2001-2011), based on multiple supervised classifier methods for bioclimatic indicators.

A Web Geographic Information System to share data and explorative analysis tools: The application to West Nile disease in the Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Savini, Lara; Tora, Susanna; Di Lorenzo, Alessio; Cioci, Daniela; Monaco, Federica; Polci, Andrea; Orsini, Massimiliano; Calistri, Paolo; Conte, Annamaria

2018-01-01

In the last decades an increasing number of West Nile Disease cases was observed in equines and humans in the Mediterranean basin and surveillance systems are set up in numerous countries to manage and control the disease. The collection, storage and distribution of information on the spread of the disease becomes important for a shared intervention and control strategy. To this end, a Web Geographic Information System has been developed and disease data, climatic and environmental remote sensed data, full genome sequences of selected isolated strains are made available. This paper describes the Disease Monitoring Dashboard (DMD) web system application, the tools available for the preliminary analysis on climatic and environmental factors and the other interactive tools for epidemiological analysis. WNV occurrence data are collected from multiple official and unofficial sources. Whole genome sequences and metadata of WNV strains are retrieved from public databases or generated in the framework of the Italian surveillance activities. Climatic and environmental data are provided by NASA website. The Geographical Information System is composed by Oracle 10g Database and ESRI ArcGIS Server 10.03; the web mapping client application is developed with the ArcGIS API for Javascript and Phylocanvas library to facilitate and optimize the mash-up approach. ESRI ArcSDE 10.1 has been used to store spatial data. The DMD application is accessible through a generic web browser at https://netmed.izs.it/networkMediterraneo/. The system collects data through on-line forms and automated procedures and visualizes data as interactive graphs, maps and tables. The spatial and temporal dynamic visualization of disease events is managed by a time slider that returns results on both map and epidemiological curve. Climatic and environmental data can be associated to cases through python procedures and downloaded as Excel files. The system compiles multiple datasets through user-friendly web tools; it integrates entomological, veterinary and human surveillance, molecular information on pathogens and environmental and climatic data. The principal result of the DMD development is the transfer and dissemination of knowledge and technologies to develop strategies for integrated prevention and control measures of animal and human diseases.

Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Ana

2015-04-01

Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme events also helps the development of a system for decision-making, regarding natural and social disasters, and reducing impacts. Numerical experiments using this regional modeling system successfully modeled severe weather events in Brazil. Comparisons with the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis outputs were made at resolutions of about 40- and 25-km of the regional climate model.

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.

Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland: A Coupled Natural-Human System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lant, C.; Misgna, G.; Secchi, S.; Schoof, J. T.

2012-12-01

This paper will present a methodological overview of an NSF-funded project under the Coupled Natural and Human System program. Climate change, coupled with variations and changes in economic and policy environments and agricultural techniques, will alter the landscape of the U.S. Midwest. Assessing the effects of these changes on watersheds, and thus on water quantity, water quality, and agricultural production, entails modeling a coupled natural-human system capable of answering research questions such as: (1) How will the climate of the U.S. Midwest change through the remainder of the 21st Century? (2) How will climate change, together with changing markets and policies, affect land use patterns at various scales, from the U.S. Midwest, to agricultural regions, to watersheds, to farms and fields? (3) Under what policies and prices does landscape change induced by climate change generate a positive or a negative feedback through changes in carbon storage, evapotranspiration, and albedo? (4) Will climate change expand or diminish the agricultural production and ecosystem service generation capacities of specific watersheds? Such research can facilitate early adaptation and make a timely contribution to the successful integration of agricultural, environmental, and trade policy. Rural landscapes behave as a system through a number of feedback mechanisms: climatic, agro-technology, market, and policy. Methods, including agent-based modeling, SWAT modeling, map algebra using logistic regression, and genetic algorithms for analyzing each of these feedback mechanisms will be described. Selected early results that link sub-system models and incorporate critical feedbacks will also be presented.igure 1. Overall Modeling framework for Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland.

Links between the built environment, climate and population health: interdisciplinary environmental change research in New York City.

PubMed

Rosenthal, Joyce Klein; Sclar, Elliott D; Kinney, Patrick L; Knowlton, Kim; Crauderueff, Robert; Brandt-Rauf, Paul W

2007-10-01

Global climate change is expected to pose increasing challenges for cities in the following decades, placing greater stress and impacts on multiple social and biophysical systems, including population health, coastal development, urban infrastructure, energy demand, and water supplies. Simultaneously, a strong global trend towards urbanisation of poverty exists, with increased challenges for urban populations and local governance to protect and sustain the wellbeing of growing cities. In the context of these 2 overarching trends, interdisciplinary research at the city scale is prioritised for understanding the social impacts of climate change and variability and for the evaluation of strategies in the built environment that might serve as adaptive responses to climate change. This article discusses 2 recent initiatives of The Earth Institute at Columbia University (EI) as examples of research that integrates the methods and objectives of several disciplines, including environmental health science and urban planning, to understand the potential public health impacts of global climate change and mitigative measures for the more localised effects of the urban heat island in the New York City metropolitan region. These efforts embody 2 distinct research approaches. The New York Climate & Health Project created a new integrated modeling system to assess the public health impacts of climate and land use change in the metropolitan region. The Cool City Project aims for more applied policy-oriented research that incorporates the local knowledge of community residents to understand the costs and benefits of interventions in the built environment that might serve to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change and variability, and protect urban populations from health stressors associated with summertime heat. Both types of research are potentially useful for understanding the impacts of environmental change at the urban scale, the policies needed to address these challenges, and to train scholars capable of collaborative approaches across the social and biophysical sciences.

Prediction of daily spring hydrographs for future climatic scenarios based on an integrated numerical modelling approach: Application on a snow-governed semi- arid karst catchment area.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doummar, J.; Kassem, A.; Gurdak, J. J.

2017-12-01

In the framework of a three-year USAID/NSF- funded PEER Science project, flow in a karst system in Lebanon (Assal Spring; discharge 0.2-2.5 m3/s yearly volume of 22-30 Mm3) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated using an integrated numerical model (Mike She 2016). The calibrated model (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.77) is based on high resolution input data (2014-2017) and detailed catchment characterization. The approach is to assess the influence of various model parameters on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone) based on an integrated numerical model. These parameters include precipitation intensity and magnitude, temperature, snow-melt parameters, in addition to karst specific spatially distributed features such as fast infiltration points, soil properties and thickness, topographical slopes, Epikarst and thickness of unsaturated zone, and hydraulic conductivity among others. Moreover, the model is currently simulated forward using various scenarios for future climate (Global Climate Models GCM; daily downscaled temperature and precipitation time series for Lebanon 2020-2045) in order to depict the flow rates expected in the future and the effect of climate change on hydrographs recession coefficients, discharge maxima and minima, and total spring discharge volume . Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge or indirectly on the vulnerability of the system (soil thickness, soil and rock hydraulic conductivity appear to be amongst the highly sensitive parameters). This study particularly unravels the normalized single effect of rain magnitude and intensity, snow, and temperature change on the flow rate (e.g., a change of temperature of 3° on the catchment yields a Residual Mean Square Error RMSE of 0.15 m3/s in the spring discharge and a 16% error in the total annual volume with respect to the calibrated model). Finally, such a study can allow decision makers to implement best informed management practices, especially in complex karst systems, to overcome impacts of climate change on water resources.

RZWQM2 Simulations of Alternative Cropping Systems With and Without Summer Crops in the Central Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Integration and synthesis of data accruing from complex alternative crop rotation experiments across locations and climates is a challenge to agriculturists. System simulation models are potential tools to address this challenge. In this study, we simulated three long-term (1991 to 2008) dryland c...

Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne L.; Hart, Neil C. G.; Clark, Peter A.; Hodges, Kevin; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2018-04-01

Extra-tropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact on landfall due to strong surface winds and coastal storm surges. Climate model integrations have predicted a future increase in the frequency of, and potential damage from, European windstorms and yet these integrations cannot properly represent localised jets, such as sting jets, that may significantly enhance damage. Here we present the first prediction of how the climatology of sting-jet-containing cyclones will change in a future warmer climate, considering the North Atlantic and Europe. A proven sting-jet precursor diagnostic is applied to 13 year present-day and future (~2100) climate integrations from the Met Office Unified Model in its Global Atmosphere 3.0 configuration. The present-day climate results are consistent with previously-published results from a reanalysis dataset (with around 32% of cyclones exhibiting the sing-jet precursor), lending credibility to the analysis of the future-climate integration. The proportion of cyclones exhibiting the sting-jet precursor in the future-climate integration increases to 45%. Furthermore, while the proportion of explosively-deepening storms increases only slightly in the future climate, the proportion of those storms with the sting-jet precursor increases by 60%. The European resolved-wind risk associated with explosively-deepening storms containing a sting-jet precursor increases substantially in the future climate; in reality this wind risk is likely to be further enhanced by the release of localised moist instability, unresolved by typical climate models.

Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

2011-12-01

Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this system of systems approach could help the local governments and concerned institutions worldwide to adapt to gradually changing environmental conditions as well as manage impacts of extreme events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes, and storm surges.

The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creutzig, Felix; Agoston, Peter; Goldschmidt, Jan Christoph; Luderer, Gunnar; Nemet, Gregory; Pietzcker, Robert C.

2017-09-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report emphasizes the importance of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage for achieving climate goals, but it does not identify solar energy as a strategically important technology option. That is surprising given the strong growth, large resource, and low environmental footprint of photovoltaics (PV). Here we explore how models have consistently underestimated PV deployment and identify the reasons for underlying bias in models. Our analysis reveals that rapid technological learning and technology-specific policy support were crucial to PV deployment in the past, but that future success will depend on adequate financing instruments and the management of system integration. We propose that with coordinated advances in multiple components of the energy system, PV could supply 30-50% of electricity in competitive markets.

Ocean Hydrodynamics Numerical Model in Curvilinear Coordinates for Simulating Circulation of the Global Ocean and its Separate Basins.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Anatoly; Diansky, Nikolay; Zalesny, Vladimir

2010-05-01

The original program complex is proposed for the ocean circulation sigma-model, developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). The complex can be used in various curvilinear orthogonal coordinate systems. In addition to ocean circulation model, the complex contains a sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics model, as well as the original system of the atmospheric forcing implementation on the basis of both prescribed meteodata and atmospheric model results. This complex can be used as the oceanic block of Earth climate model as well as for solving the scientific and practical problems concerning the World ocean and its separate oceans and seas. The developed program complex can be effectively used on parallel shared memory computational systems and on contemporary personal computers. On the base of the complex proposed the ocean general circulation model (OGCM) was developed. The model is realized in the curvilinear orthogonal coordinate system obtained by the conformal transformation of the standard geographical grid that allowed us to locate the system singularities outside the integration domain. The horizontal resolution of the OGCM is 1 degree on longitude, 0.5 degree on latitude, and it has 40 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model was integrated for 100 years starting from the Levitus January climatology using the realistic atmospheric annual cycle calculated on the base of CORE datasets. The experimental results showed us that the model adequately reproduces the basic characteristics of large-scale World Ocean dynamics, that is in good agreement with both observational data and results of the best climatic OGCMs. This OGCM is used as the oceanic component of the new version of climatic system model (CSM) developed in INM RAS. The latter is now ready for carrying out the new numerical experiments on climate and its change modelling according to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios in the scope of the CMIP-5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). On the base of the complex proposed the Pacific Ocean circulation eddy-resolving model was realized. The integration domain covers the Pacific from Equator to Bering Strait. The model horizontal resolution is 0.125 degree and it has 20 non-uniform sigma-levels in depth. The model adequately reproduces circulation large-scale structure and its variability: Kuroshio meandering, ocean synoptic eddies, frontal zones, etc. Kuroshio high variability is shown. The distribution of contaminant was simulated that is admittedly wasted near Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. The results demonstrate contaminant distribution structure and provide us understanding of hydrological fields formation processes in the North-West Pacific.

Data management and analysis for the Earth System Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, D. N.; Ananthakrishnan, R.; Bernholdt, D. E.; Bharathi, S.; Brown, D.; Chen, M.; Chervenak, A. L.; Cinquini, L.; Drach, R.; Foster, I. T.; Fox, P.; Hankin, S.; Henson, V. E.; Jones, P.; Middleton, D. E.; Schwidder, J.; Schweitzer, R.; Schuler, R.; Shoshani, A.; Siebenlist, F.; Sim, A.; Strand, W. G.; Wilhelmi, N.; Su, M.

2008-07-01

The international climate community is expected to generate hundreds of petabytes of simulation data within the next five to seven years. This data must be accessed and analyzed by thousands of analysts worldwide in order to provide accurate and timely estimates of the likely impact of climate change on physical, biological, and human systems. Climate change is thus not only a scientific challenge of the first order but also a major technological challenge. In order to address this technological challenge, the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) has been established within the U.S. Department of Energy's Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC)-2 program, with support from the offices of Advanced Scientific Computing Research and Biological and Environmental Research. ESG-CET's mission is to provide climate researchers worldwide with access to the data, information, models, analysis tools, and computational capabilities required to make sense of enormous climate simulation datasets. Its specific goals are to (1) make data more useful to climate researchers by developing Grid technology that enhances data usability; (2) meet specific distributed database, data access, and data movement needs of national and international climate projects; (3) provide a universal and secure web-based data access portal for broad multi-model data collections; and (4) provide a wide-range of Grid-enabled climate data analysis tools and diagnostic methods to international climate centers and U.S. government agencies. Building on the successes of the previous Earth System Grid (ESG) project, which has enabled thousands of researchers to access tens of terabytes of data from a small number of ESG sites, ESG-CET is working to integrate a far larger number of distributed data providers, high-bandwidth wide-area networks, and remote computers in a highly collaborative problem-solving environment.

Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

PubMed

Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

2014-01-01

Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.

Application of geographic information systems (GIS) for livability : case studies of select transportation agencies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

Livability is the idea that transportation, land use, housing, energy, and environmental considerations can be integrated to protect the environment, promote equitable development, and help to address the challenges of climate change. Geographi...

An integrated crop model and GIS decision support system for assisting agronomic decision making under climate change.

PubMed

Kadiyala, M D M; Nedumaran, S; Singh, Piara; S, Chukka; Irshad, Mohammad A; Bantilan, M C S

2015-07-15

The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980-2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040-69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4°C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60days after sowing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the Value of the Federal Climate-Relevant Data Through the Climate Data Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, D. J.; Pinheiro Privette, A. C.; Bugbee, K.

2016-12-01

The Climate Data Initiative (CDI), launched by the Obama Administration in March of 2014, is an effort to leverage the extensive open Federal data to spur innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship around climate resilience. As part of this initiative the federal agencies identified key climate-relevant datasets and made them discoverable through an online catalog at data.gov/climate. Although this was a critical and foundational step to improve the discoverability to these federal data, enhancements to its accessibility and usability require a deeper understanding of the data needs of the different user communities. More recently, the focus of the CDI project has evolved toward extended engagement with communities of resilience trough the identification of use-cases. This effort aims to guide the next steps of the CDI project to make the CDI resources more easily integrated into decision support systems

Integrating Climate Change Science and Sustainability in Environmental Science, Sociology, Philosophy and Business Courses.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudrias, M. A.; Cantzler, J.; Croom, S.; Huston, C.; Woods, M.

2015-12-01

Courses on sustainability can be taught from multiple perspectives with some focused on specific areas (environmental, socio-cultural, economic, ethics) and others taking a more integrated approach across areas of sustainability and academic disciplines. In conjunction with the Climate Change Education Program efforts to enhance climate change literacy with innovative approaches, resources and communication strategies developed by Climate Education Partners were used in two distinct ways to integrate climate change science and impacts into undergraduate and graduate level courses. At the graduate level, the first lecture in the MBA program in Sustainable Supply Chain Management is entirely dedicated to climate change science, local and global impacts and discussions about key messages to communicate to the business community. Basic science concepts are integrated with discussions about mitigation and adaptation focused on business leaders. The concepts learned are then applied to the semester-long business plan project for the students. At the undergraduate level, a new model of comprehensive integration across disciplines was implemented in Spring 2015 across three courses on Sustainability each with a specific lens: Natural Science, Sociology and Philosophy. All three courses used climate change as the 'big picture' framing concept and had similar learning objectives creating a framework where lens-specific topics, focusing on depth in a discipline, were balanced with integrated exercises across disciplines providing breadth and possibilities for integration. The comprehensive integration project was the creation of the climate action plan for the university with each team focused on key areas of action (water, energy, transportation, etc.) and each team built with at least one member from each class ensuring a natural science, sociological and philosophical perspective. The final project was presented orally to all three classes and an integrated paper included all three perspectives. The best projects are being compiled so they can be shared with the University of San Diego's planning committee.

Computational Environments and Analysis methods available on the NCI High Performance Computing (HPC) and High Performance Data (HPD) Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, B. J. K.; Foster, C.; Minchin, S. A.; Pugh, T.; Lewis, A.; Wyborn, L. A.; Evans, B. J.; Uhlherr, A.

2014-12-01

The National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) has established a powerful in-situ computational environment to enable both high performance computing and data-intensive science across a wide spectrum of national environmental data collections - in particular climate, observational data and geoscientific assets. This paper examines 1) the computational environments that supports the modelling and data processing pipelines, 2) the analysis environments and methods to support data analysis, and 3) the progress in addressing harmonisation of the underlying data collections for future transdisciplinary research that enable accurate climate projections. NCI makes available 10+ PB major data collections from both the government and research sectors based on six themes: 1) weather, climate, and earth system science model simulations, 2) marine and earth observations, 3) geosciences, 4) terrestrial ecosystems, 5) water and hydrology, and 6) astronomy, social and biosciences. Collectively they span the lithosphere, crust, biosphere, hydrosphere, troposphere, and stratosphere. The data is largely sourced from NCI's partners (which include the custodians of many of the national scientific records), major research communities, and collaborating overseas organisations. The data is accessible within an integrated HPC-HPD environment - a 1.2 PFlop supercomputer (Raijin), a HPC class 3000 core OpenStack cloud system and several highly connected large scale and high-bandwidth Lustre filesystems. This computational environment supports a catalogue of integrated reusable software and workflows from earth system and ecosystem modelling, weather research, satellite and other observed data processing and analysis. To enable transdisciplinary research on this scale, data needs to be harmonised so that researchers can readily apply techniques and software across the corpus of data available and not be constrained to work within artificial disciplinary boundaries. Future challenges will involve the further integration and analysis of this data across the social sciences to facilitate the impacts across the societal domain, including timely analysis to more accurately predict and forecast future climate and environmental state.

Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

PubMed

Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2015-12-15

Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center presents Enhancing Standards Based Science Curriculum through NASA Content Relevancy: A Model for Sustainable Teaching-Research Integration Dr. Robert Gabrys, Raquel Marshall, Dr. Evelina Felicite-Maurice, Erin McKinley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, R. H.; Gabrys, R.

2016-12-01

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has developed a systemic educator professional development model for the integration of NASA climate change resources into the K-12 classroom. The desired outcome of this model is to prepare teachers in STEM disciplines to be globally engaged and knowledgeable of current climate change research and its potential for content relevancy alignment to standard-based curriculum. The application and mapping of the model is based on the state education needs assessment, alignment to the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), and implementation framework developed by the consortium of district superintendents and their science supervisors. In this presentation, we will demonstrate best practices for extending the concept of inquiry-based and project-based learning through the integration of current NASA climate change research into curriculum unit lessons. This model includes a significant teacher development component focused on capacity development for teacher instruction and pedagogy aimed at aligning NASA climate change research to related NGSS student performance expectations and subsequent Crosscutting Concepts, Science and Engineering Practices, and Disciplinary Core Ideas, a need that was presented by the district steering committee as critical for ensuring sustainability and high-impact in the classroom. This model offers a collaborative and inclusive learning community that connects classroom teachers to NASA climate change researchers via an ongoing consultant/mentoring approach. As a result of the first year of implementation of this model, Maryland teachers are implementing NGSS unit lessons that guide students in open-ended research based on current NASA climate change research.

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.

2017-03-01

Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.

Integrating U.S. climate, energy, and transportation policies : RAND workshops address challenges and potential solutions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

There is growing consensus among policymakers that bold government action is needed : to mitigate climate change, particularly through integrated climate, energy, and transportation : policy initiatives. In an effort to share different perspectives o...

Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080

PubMed Central

Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; N. Tubiello, Francesco; van Velhuizen, Harrij

2005-01-01

A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological–economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5′×5′ latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

Teams as innovative systems: multilevel motivational antecedents of innovation in R&D teams.

PubMed

Chen, Gilad; Farh, Jiing-Lih; Campbell-Bush, Elizabeth M; Wu, Zhiming; Wu, Xin

2013-11-01

Integrating theories of proactive motivation, team innovation climate, and motivation in teams, we developed and tested a multilevel model of motivators of innovative performance in teams. Analyses of multisource data from 428 members of 95 research and development (R&D) teams across 33 Chinese firms indicated that team-level support for innovation climate captured motivational mechanisms that mediated between transformational leadership and team innovative performance, whereas members' motivational states (role-breadth self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation) mediated between proactive personality and individual innovative performance. Furthermore, individual motivational states and team support for innovation climate uniquely promoted individual innovative performance, and, in turn, individual innovative performance linked team support for innovation climate to team innovative performance. (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Improving the Nation's Climate Literacy through the Next Generation Science Standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grogan, M.; Niepold, F.; Ledley, T. S.; Gold, A. U.; Breslyn, W. G.; Carley, S.

2013-12-01

Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science (2009) presented the information that is deemed important for individuals and communities to know and understand about Earth's climate, impacts of climate change, and approaches to adaptation or mitigation by a group of federal agencies, science and educational partners. These principles guided the development of the NRC Framework for K-12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas (2012) and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS, 2013). National Science Foundation recently funded two partnership projects which support the implementation of the climate component of the NGSS using the Climate Literacy framework. The first project, the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN), was launched in 2010 as a National Science Digital Library (NSDL) Pathways project. CLEAN's primary effort is to steward a collection of educational resources around energy and climate topics and foster a community that supports learning about climate and energy topics. CLEAN's focus has been to integrate the effective use of the educational resources across all grade levels - with a particular focus on the middle-school through undergraduate levels (grades 6-16) and align the resources with educational standards. The second project, the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) program is supported by a Phase II Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) grant awarded to the University System of Maryland (USM) by the National Science Foundation. The MADE-CLEAR project's related goals are to support innovations in interdisciplinary P-20 (preschool through graduate school) climate change education, and develop new pathways for teacher education and professional development leading to expertise in climate change content and pedagogy. Work in Maryland, Delaware (MADE-CLEAR) and other states on the implementation of the NGSS, that will utilize the years of work, the efforts of hundreds of community members and tens of millions of dollars of investment and to increase the nations climate literacy, will be highlighted. We will particularly focus on the partnerships among MADE-CLEAR, NOAA and CLEAN. Climate science and energy are complex topics, with rapidly developing science and technology and the potential for controversy. The NGSS offer educators an opportunity to effectively bring these important subjects into their classrooms across a learning progression spanning K-12 and well beyond. Yet regardless of the pedagogic setting, using a literacy-based approach can provide a sound foundation for building learners' understanding of these topics. In this presentation, we will describe contributions by a group of collaborative projects and organizations to support the NGSS implementation through an integrated Earth system science approach in K-12 education.

An Integrated Approach to Economic and Environmental Aspects of Air Pollution and Climate Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarofim, M. C.

2007-12-01

Emissions of greenhouses gases and conventional pollutants are closely linked through shared generation processes and thus policies directed toward long-lived greenhouse gases affect emissions of conventional pollutants and, similarly, policies directed toward conventional pollutants affect emissions of greenhouse gases. Some conventional pollutants such as aerosols also have direct radiative effects. NOx and VOCs are ozone precursors, another substance with both radiative and health impacts, and these ozone precursors also interact with the chemistry of the hydroxyl radical which is the major methane sink. Realistic scenarios of future emissions and concentrations must therefore account for both air pollution and greenhouse gas policies and how they interact economically as well as atmospherically, including the regional pattern of emissions and regulation. We have modified a 16 region computable general equilibrium economic model (the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model) by including elasticities of substitution for ozone precursors and aerosols in order to examine these interactions between climate policy and air pollution policy on a global scale. Urban emissions are distributed based on population density, and aged using a reduced form urban model before release into an atmospheric chemistry/climate model (the earth systems component of the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model). This integrated approach enables examination of the direct impacts of air pollution on climate, the ancillary and complementary interactions between air pollution and climate policies, and the impact of different population distribution algorithms or urban emission aging schemes on global scale properties. This modeling exercise shows that while ozone levels are reduced due to NOx and VOC reductions, these reductions lead to an increase in methane concentrations that eliminates the temperature effects of the ozone reductions. However, black carbon reductions do have significant direct effects on global mean temperatures, as do ancillary reductions of greenhouse gases due to the pollution constraints imposed in the economic model. Finally, we show that the economic benefits of coordinating air pollution and climate policies rather than separate implementation are on the order of 20% of the total policy cost.

A High Resolution, Integrated Approach to Modeling Climate Change Impacts to a Mountain Headwaters Catchment using ParFlow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pribulick, C. E.; Maxwell, R. M.; Williams, K. H.; Carroll, R. W. H.

2014-12-01

Prediction of environmental response to global climate change is paramount for regions that rely upon snowpack for their dominant water supply. Temperature increases are anticipated to be greater at higher elevations perturbing hydrologic systems that provide water to millions of downstream users. In this study, the relationships between large-scale climatic change and the corresponding small-scale hydrologic processes of mountainous terrain are investigated in the East River headwaters catchment near Gothic, CO. This catchment is emblematic of many others within the upper Colorado River Basin and covers an area of 250 square kilometers, has a topographic relief of 1420 meters, an average elevation of 3266 meters and has varying stream characteristics. This site allows for the examination of the varying effect of climate-induced changes on the hydrologic response of three different characteristic components of the catchment: a steep high-energy mountain system, a medium-grade lower-energy system and a low-grade low-energy meandering floodplain. To capture the surface and subsurface heterogeneity of this headwaters system the basin has been modeled at a 10-meter resolution using ParFlow, a parallel, integrated hydrologic model. Driven by meteorological forcing, ParFlow is able to capture land surface processes and represents surface and subsurface interactions through saturated and variably saturated heterogeneous flow. Data from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), land cover, permeability, geologic and soil maps, and on-site meteorological stations, were prepared, analyzed and input into ParFlow as layers with a grid size comprised of 1403 by 1685 cells to best represent the small-scale, high resolution model domain. Water table depth, soil moisture, soil temperature, snowpack, runoff and local energy budget values provide useful insight into the catchments response to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) temperature projections. In the near term, coupling this watershed model with one describing a diverse suite of subsurface elemental cycling pathways, including carbon and nitrogen, will provide an improved understanding of the response of the subsurface ecosystems to hydrologic transitions induced as a result of global climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kyle, G. Page; Mueller, C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to themore » GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.« less

Exploring Air-Climate-Energy Impacts with GCAM-USA

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used for exploring future scenarios and examining strategies that address air pollution, climate change and energy (ACE) goals. My research focuseson integration of impact factors in GCAM-USA and a...

Undergraduate Students as Climate Communicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.; Mullendore, G. L.

2012-12-01

The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) are partnering with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students will have the opportunity to participate in guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. An integral part of the learning process will include training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of a webcast about investigating aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Several departments are involved in the educational program.

Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater reserves - Application to a chalk aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Wildemeersch, Samuel; Therrien, René; Dassargues, Alain

2015-09-01

Recent studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for different geographical and climatic contexts. However, most studies have either not estimated the uncertainty around projected impacts or have limited the analysis to the uncertainty related to climate models. In this study, the uncertainties around impact projections from several sources (climate models, natural variability of the weather, hydrological model calibration) are calculated and compared for the Geer catchment (465 km2) in Belgium. We use a surface-subsurface integrated model implemented using the finite element code HydroGeoSphere, coupled with climate change scenarios (2010-2085) and the UCODE_2005 inverse model, to assess the uncertainty related to the calibration of the hydrological model. This integrated model provides a more realistic representation of the water exchanges between surface and subsurface domains and constrains more the calibration with the use of both surface and subsurface observed data. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed on predictions. The linear uncertainty analysis is approximate for this nonlinear system, but it provides some measure of uncertainty for computationally demanding models. Results show that, for the Geer catchment, the most important uncertainty is related to calibration of the hydrological model. The total uncertainty associated with the prediction of groundwater levels remains large. By the end of the century, however, the uncertainty becomes smaller than the predicted decline in groundwater levels.

Adapting Agricultural Water Use to Climate Change in a Post-Soviet Context: Challenges and Opportunities in Southeast Kazakhstan.

PubMed

Barrett, Tristam; Feola, Giuseppe; Khusnitdinova, Marina; Krylova, Viktoria

2017-01-01

The convergence of climate change and post-Soviet socio-economic and institutional transformations has been underexplored so far, as have the consequences of such convergence on crop agriculture in Central Asia. This paper provides a place-based analysis of constraints and opportunities for adaptation to climate change, with a specific focus on water use, in two districts in southeast Kazakhstan. Data were collected by 2 multi-stakeholder participatory workshops, 21 semi-structured in-depth interviews, and secondary statistical data. The present-day agricultural system is characterised by enduring Soviet-era management structures, but without state inputs that previously sustained agricultural productivity. Low margins of profitability on many privatised farms mean that attempts to implement integrated water management have produced water users associations unable to maintain and upgrade a deteriorating irrigation infrastructure. Although actors engage in tactical adaptation measures, necessary structural adaptation of the irrigation system remains difficult without significant public or private investments. Market-based water management models have been translated ambiguously to this region, which fails to encourage efficient water use and hinders adaptation to water stress. In addition, a mutual interdependence of informal networks and formal institutions characterises both state governance and everyday life in Kazakhstan. Such interdependence simultaneously facilitates operational and tactical adaptation, but hinders structural adaptation, as informal networks exist as a parallel system that achieves substantive outcomes while perpetuating the inertia and incapacity of the state bureaucracy. This article has relevance for critical understanding of integrated water management in practice and adaptation to climate change in post-Soviet institutional settings more broadly.

Qualitative assessment of climate-driven ecological shifts in the Caspian Sea

PubMed Central

Beyraghdar Kashkooli, Omid; Gröger, Joachim; Núñez-Riboni, Ismael

2017-01-01

The worldwide occurrence of complex climate-induced ecological shifts in marine systems is one of the major challenges in sustainable bio-resources management. The occurrence of ecological environment-driven shifts was studied in the Southern Caspian Sea using the “shiftogram” method on available fisheries-related (i.e. commercially important bentho-pelagic fish stocks) ecological and climatic variables. As indicators of potential environmentally driven shift patterns we used indices for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Oscillation, the Siberian High, the East Atlantic-West Russia pattern, as well as Sea Surface Temperature and surface chlorophyll-a concentration. Given the explorative findings from the serial shift analyses, the cascading and serial order of multiple shift events in climatic-ecologic conditions of the southern Caspian Sea suggested a linkage between external forces and dynamics of ecosystem components and structures in the following order: global-scale climate forces lead to local environmental processes, which in turn lead to biological components dynamics. For the first time, this study indicates that ecological shifts are an integral component of bentho-pelagic subsystem regulatory processes and dynamics. Qualitative correspondence of biological responses of bentho-pelagic stocks to climatic events is one of the supporting evidences that overall Caspian ecosystem structures and functioning might have–at least partially–been impacted by global-scale climatic or local environmental shifts. These findings may help to foster a regional Ecosystem-based Approach to Management (EAM) as an integral part of bentho-pelagic fisheries management plans. PMID:28475609

Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa Under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Habib, S.; Funk, C. C.; Senay, G. B.; Dinku, T.; Policelli, F. S.; Block, P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Beyene, S.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.

2014-12-01

The development of effective strategies to adapt to changes in the character of droughts and floods in Africa will rely on improved seasonal prediction systems that are robust to an evolving climate baseline and can be integrated into disaster preparedness and response. Many efforts have been made to build models to improve seasonal forecasts in the Greater Horn of Africa region (GHA) using satellite and climate data, but these efforts and models must be improved and translated into future conditions under evolving climate conditions. This has considerable social significance, but is challenged by the nature of climate predictability and the adaptability of coupled natural and human systems facing exposure to climate extremes. To address these issues, work is in progress under a project funded by NASA. The objectives of the project include: 1) Characterize and explain large-scale drivers in the ocean-atmosphere-land system associated with years of extreme flood or drought in the GHA. 2) Evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes. 3) Apply seasonal forecast systems to prediction of socially relevant impacts on crops, flood risk, and economic outcomes, and assess the value of these predictions to decision makers. 4) Evaluate the robustness of seasonal prediction systems to evolving climate conditions. The National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA) is leading this project in collaboration with the USGS, Johns Hopkins University, University of Wisconsin-Madison, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, NASA, and GHA local experts. The project is also designed to have active engagement of end users in various sectors, university researchers, and extension agents in GHA through workshops and/or webinars. This project is expected improve and implement new and existing climate- and remote sensing-based agricultural, meteorological, and hydrologic drought and flood monitoring products (or indicators) that can enhance the preparedness for extreme climate events and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the GHA. Even though this project is in its first year, the preliminary results and future plans to carry out the objectives will be presented.

Identifying Decision Support Tools to Bridge Climate and Agricultural Needs in the Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, B. L.; Kluck, D. R.; Hatfield, J.; Black, C.; Kellner, O.; Woloszyn, M.; Timlin, M. S.

2015-12-01

Climate monitoring tools designed to help stakeholders reduce climate impacts have been developed for the primary Midwest field crops of corn and soybean. However, the region also produces vital livestock and specialty crops that currently lack similar climate monitoring and projection tools. In autumn 2015, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) partnered with the US Department of Agriculture's Midwest Climate Hub to convene agriculture stakeholders, climate scientists, and climate service specialists to discuss climate impacts and needs for these two, often under-represented, sectors. The goals of this workshop were to (1) identify climate impacts that specialty crops and livestock producers face within the Midwest, (2) develop an understanding of the types of climate and weather information and tools currently available in the Midwest that could be applied to decision making, and (3) discover the types of climate and weather information and tools needed to address concerns of specialty crop and livestock commodities across the Midwest. This presentation will discuss the workshop and provide highlights of the outcomes that developed into strategic plans for the future to better serve these sectors of agriculture in the Midwest.

A conceptual design for an integrated data base management system for remote sensing data. [user requirements and data processing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maresca, P. A.; Lefler, R. M.

1978-01-01

The requirements of potential users were considered in the design of an integrated data base management system, developed to be independent of any specific computer or operating system, and to be used to support investigations in weather and climate. Ultimately, the system would expand to include data from the agriculture, hydrology, and related Earth resources disciplines. An overview of the system and its capabilities is presented. Aspects discussed cover the proposed interactive command language; the application program command language; storage and tabular data maintained by the regional data base management system; the handling of data files and the use of system standard formats; various control structures required to support the internal architecture of the system; and the actual system architecture with the various modules needed to implement the system. The concepts on which the relational data model is based; data integrity, consistency, and quality; and provisions for supporting concurrent access to data within the system are covered in the appendices.

Identifying legal, ecological and governance obstacles and opportunities for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cosens, Barbara; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.

2014-01-01

Current governance of regional scale water management systems in the United States has not placed them on a path toward sustainability, as conflict and gridlock characterize the social arena and ecosystem services continue to erode. Changing climate may continue this trajectory, but it also provides a catalyst for renewal of ecosystems and a window of opportunity for change in institutions. Resilience provides a bridging concept that predicts that change in ecological and social systems is often dramatic, abrupt, and surprising. Adapting to the uncertainty of climate driven change must be done in a manner perceived as legitimate by the participants in a democratic society. Adaptation must begin with the current hierarchical and fragmented social-ecological system as a baseline from which new approaches must be applied. Achieving a level of integration between ecological concepts and governance requires a dialogue across multiple disciplines, including ecologists with expertise in ecological resilience, hydrologists and climate experts, with social scientists and legal scholars. Criteria and models that link ecological dynamics with policies in complex, multi-jurisdictional water basins with adaptive management and governance frameworks may move these social-ecological systems toward greater sustainability.

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; Garcia-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

2014-09-01

Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate and land uses will alter the hydrologic cycles and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting the behavior of recharge and discharge conditions under future climatic and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system in Spain, in the last decades the transformation from dry to irrigated lands has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table in one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Streamflow depletion is compromising the related ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. The intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is also leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. In this paper we analyze the potential impact of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modelling framework consisting of the sequentially coupling of a watershed agriculturally-based hydrological model (SWAT) with the ground-water model MODFLOW and mass-transport model MT3D. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing ET and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream-aquifer interaction. SWAT and MODFLOW outputs (nitrate loads from SWAT, groundwater velocity field from MODFLOW) are used as MT3D inputs for assessing the fate and transport of nitrate leached from the topsoil. Results on river discharge, crop yields, groundwater levels and groundwater nitrate concentrations obtained from simulation fit well to the observed values. Three climate change scenarios have been considered, corresponding to 3 different GCMs for emission scenario A1B, covering the control period, and short, medium and long-term future periods. A multi-temporal analysis of LULC change was carried out, helped by the study of historical trends by remote sensing images and key driving forces to explain LULC transitions. Markov chains and European scenarios and projections have been used to quantify trends in the future. The cellular automata technique was applied for stochastic modeling future LULC maps. The results show the sensitivity of groundwater quantity and quality (nitrate pollution) to climate and land use changes, and the need to implement adaptation measures in order to prevent further groundwater level declines and increasing nitrate concentrations. The sequential modelling chain has been proved to be a valuable assessment and management tool for supporting the development of sustainable management strategies.

Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review.

PubMed

Runting, Rebecca K; Bryan, Brett A; Dee, Laura E; Maseyk, Fleur J F; Mandle, Lisa; Hamel, Perrine; Wilson, Kerrie A; Yetka, Kathleen; Possingham, Hugh P; Rhodes, Jonathan R

2017-01-01

Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Downscaling Global Emissions and Its Implications Derived from Climate Model Experiments

PubMed Central

Abe, Manabu; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kawase, Hiroaki; Kushida, Kazuhide; Masui, Toshihiko; Oka, Kazutaka; Shiogama, Hideo; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Yoshikawa, Minoru

2017-01-01

In climate change research, future scenarios of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used in climate models (CMs) and earth system models to analyze future interactions and feedback between human activities and climate. However, the spatial resolutions of IAMs and CMs differ. IAMs usually disaggregate the world into 10–30 aggregated regions, whereas CMs require a grid-based spatial resolution. Therefore, downscaling emissions data from IAMs into a finer scale is necessary to input the emissions into CMs. In this study, we examined whether differences in downscaling methods significantly affect climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. We tested two downscaling methods using the same regionally aggregated sulfur emissions scenario obtained from the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model. The downscaled emissions were fed into the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). One of the methods assumed a strong convergence of national emissions intensity (e.g., emissions per gross domestic product), while the other was based on inertia (i.e., the base-year remained unchanged). The emissions intensities in the downscaled spatial emissions generated from the two methods markedly differed, whereas the emissions densities (emissions per area) were similar. We investigated whether the climate change projections of temperature and precipitation would significantly differ between the two methods by applying a field significance test, and found little evidence of a significant difference between the two methods. Moreover, there was no clear evidence of a difference between the climate simulations based on these two downscaling methods. PMID:28076446

Groundwater vulnerability to climate change: A review of the assessment methodology.

PubMed

Aslam, Rana Ammar; Shrestha, Sangam; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad

2018-01-15

Impacts of climate change on water resources, especially groundwater, can no longer be hidden. These impacts are further exacerbated under the integrated influence of climate variability, climate change and anthropogenic activities. The degree of impact varies according to geographical location and other factors leading systems and regions towards different levels of vulnerability. In the recent past, several attempts have been made in various regions across the globe to quantify the impacts and consequences of climate and non-climate factors in terms of vulnerability to groundwater resources. Firstly, this paper provides a structured review of the available literature, aiming to critically analyse and highlight the limitations and knowledge gaps involved in vulnerability (of groundwater to climate change) assessment methodologies. The effects of indicator choice and the importance of including composite indicators are then emphasised. A new integrated approach for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability to climate change is proposed to successfully address those limitations. This review concludes that the choice of indicator has a significant role in defining the reliability of computed results. The effect of an individual indicator is also apparent but the consideration of a combination (variety) of indicators may give more realistic results. Therefore, in future, depending upon the local conditions and scale of the study, indicators from various groups should be chosen. Furthermore, there are various assumptions involved in previous methodologies, which limit their scope by introducing uncertainty in the calculated results. These limitations can be overcome by implementing the proposed approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices

PubMed Central

Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B.; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H.

2015-01-01

Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)—a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)—in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model’s regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon—as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting. PMID:26644560

Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices.

PubMed

Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H

2015-12-29

Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)-a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)-in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model's regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon-as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.

A 12-year (1987-1998) Ensemble Simulation of the US Climate with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

2002-01-01

The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.

Rising CO2, Climate Change, and Public Health: Exploring the Links to Plant Biology

PubMed Central

Ziska, Lewis H.; Epstein, Paul R.; Schlesinger, William H.

2009-01-01

Background Although the issue of anthropogenic climate forcing and public health is widely recognized, one fundamental aspect has remained underappreciated: the impact of climatic change on plant biology and the well-being of human systems. Objectives We aimed to critically evaluate the extant and probable links between plant function and human health, drawing on the pertinent literature. Discussion Here we provide a number of critical examples that range over various health concerns related to plant biology and climate change, including aerobiology, contact dermatitis, pharmacology, toxicology, and pesticide use. Conclusions There are a number of clear links among climate change, plant biology, and public health that remain underappreciated by both plant scientists and health care providers. We demonstrate the importance of such links in our understanding of climate change impacts and provide a list of key questions that will help to integrate plant biology into the current paradigm regarding climate change and human health. PMID:19270781

Extracting climate memory using Fractional Integrated Statistical Model: A new perspective on climate prediction

PubMed Central

Yuan, Naiming; Fu, Zuntao; Liu, Shida

2014-01-01

Long term memory (LTM) in climate variability is studied by means of fractional integral techniques. By using a recently developed model, Fractional Integral Statistical Model (FISM), we in this report proposed a new method, with which one can estimate the long-lasting influences of historical climate states on the present time quantitatively, and further extract the influence as climate memory signals. To show the usability of this method, two examples, the Northern Hemisphere monthly Temperature Anomalies (NHTA) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO), are analyzed in this study. We find the climate memory signals indeed can be extracted and the whole variations can be further decomposed into two parts: the cumulative climate memory (CCM) and the weather-scale excitation (WSE). The stronger LTM is, the larger proportion the climate memory signals will account for in the whole variations. With the climate memory signals extracted, one can at least determine on what basis the considered time series will continue to change. Therefore, this report provides a new perspective on climate prediction. PMID:25300777

Probabilistic Estimates of Climate Impacts of the Paris Agreement and Contributions from Different Countries.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Chen, Y. H. H.; Monier, E.; Libardoni, A. G.; Forest, C. E.

2017-12-01

In December of 2015 during COP21 meeting in Paris almost 200 countries signed an agreement pledging to reduce their anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recently USA announced plans to withdraw from the agreement. In this study, we estimate an impact of this decision on future climate using the MIT Integrated Global System Model, which consists of the human activity model, Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and a climate model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Earth System Model (MESM). For comparison, we also estimated impacts of possible withdrawals of China, Europe or India. In addition to the "no climate policy" scenario, we consider five emissions scenarios: Paris, Paris_no_USA, Paris_no_EUR and so on. Climate simulations were carried out from 1861 to 2005 driven by prescribed changes in GHGs and natural forcings and them continued to 2100 driven by GHG emissions produced by EPPA model. Because Paris agreement only cover the period up to 2030, last five scenarios were created assuming that emissions or carbon intensity will continue to decrease after 2030 at the same rate as in the 2020-2030 period. To account for uncertainty in climate system response to external forcing, we carry out 400 member ensembles on climate simulations for each scenario. Probability distributions for climate parameters are obtained by comparing simulated climate for 1861 to 2010 with observations. Our analysis shows that, full implementation of Paris agreement (under above-descried assumptions) will increase probability of surface air temperature in the last decade of this century increasing by less than 3oC relative to pre-industrial form about 20% for "no climate policy" to about 86%. Withdrawal of USA, China, Europe or India will decrease this probability to about 63, 67, 75 and 82%, respectively.

How can a climate change perspective be integrated into public health surveillance?

PubMed

Pascal, M; Viso, A C; Medina, S; Delmas, M C; Beaudeau, P

2012-08-01

Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Efficient health surveillance systems are required to support adaptation to climate change. However, despite a growing awareness, the public health surveillance sector has had very little involvement in the drafting of adaptation plans. This paper proposes a method to raise awareness about climate change in the public health community, to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for reinforced health surveillance systems. A working group was set up comprising surveillance experts in the following fields: environmental health; chronic diseases and; infectious diseases. Their goal was to define common objectives, to propose a framework for risk analysis, and to apply it to relevant health risks in France. The framework created helped to organize available information on climate-sensitive health risks, making a distinction between three main determinants as follows: (1) environment; (2) individual and social behaviours; and (3) demography and health status. The process is illustrated using two examples: heatwaves and airborne allergens. Health surveillance systems can be used to trigger early warning systems, to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and to evaluate these measures. Adaptation requires public health professionals to consider climate change as a concrete input parameter in their studies and to create partnerships with professionals from other disciplines. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated model-experimental framework to assess carbon cycle components in disturbed mountainous terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenzel, J.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Berardi, D.; McNellis, B.; Walsh, E.

2017-12-01

In forests vulnerable to drought and fire, there is critical need for in situ carbon and water balance measurements that can be integrated with earth system modeling to predict climate feedbacks. Model development can be improved by measurements that inform a mechanistic understanding of the component fluxes of net carbon uptake (i.e., NPP, autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration) and water use, with specific focus on responses to climate and disturbance. By integrating novel field-based instrumental technology, existing datasets, and state-of-the-art earth system modeling, we are attempting to 1) quantify the spatial and temporal impacts of forest thinning on regional biogeochemical cycling and climate 2) evaluate the impact of forest thinning on forest resilience to drought and disturbance in the Northern Rockies ecoregion. The combined model-experimental framework enables hypothesis testing that would otherwise be impossible because the use of new in situ high temporal resolution field technology allows for research in remote and mountainous terrains that have been excluded from eddy-covariance techniques. Our preliminary work has revealed some underlying difficulties with the new instrumentation that has led to new ideas and modified methods to correctly measure the component fluxes. Our observations of C balance following the thinning operations indicate that the recovery period (source to sink) is longer than hypothesized. Finally, we have incorporated a new plant functional type parameterization for Northern Rocky mixed-conifer into our simulation modeling using regional and site observations.

Key challenges and priorities for modelling European grasslands under climate change.

PubMed

Kipling, Richard P; Virkajärvi, Perttu; Breitsameter, Laura; Curnel, Yannick; De Swaef, Tom; Gustavsson, Anne-Maj; Hennart, Sylvain; Höglind, Mats; Järvenranta, Kirsi; Minet, Julien; Nendel, Claas; Persson, Tomas; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Rolinski, Susanne; Sandars, Daniel L; Scollan, Nigel D; Sebek, Leon; Seddaiu, Giovanna; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Twardy, Stanislaw; Van Middelkoop, Jantine; Wu, Lianhai; Bellocchi, Gianni

2016-10-01

Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A GUI Based Software for Sizing Stand Alone AC Coupled Hybrid PV-Diesel Power System under Malaysia Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafiqah Syahirah Mohamed, Nor; Amalina Banu Mohamat Adek, Noor; Hamid, Nurul Farhana Abd

2018-03-01

This paper presents the development of Graphical User Interface (GUI) software for sizing main component in AC coupled photovoltaic (PV) hybrid power system based on Malaysia climate. This software provides guideline for PV system integrator to design effectively the size of components and system configuration to match the system and load requirement with geographical condition. The concept of the proposed software is balancing the annual average renewable energy generation and load demand. In this study, the PV to diesel generator (DG) ratio is introduced by considering the hybrid system energy contribution. The GUI software is able to size the main components in the PV hybrid system to meet with the set target of energy contribution ratio. The rated powers of the components to be defined are PV array, grid-tie inverter, bi-directional inverter, battery storage and DG. GUI is used to perform all the system sizing procedures to make it user friendly interface as a sizing tool for AC coupled PV hybrid system. The GUI will be done by using Visual Studio 2015 based on the real data under Malaysia Climate.

Plant-Soil Feedback: Bridging Natural and Agricultural Sciences.

PubMed

Mariotte, Pierre; Mehrabi, Zia; Bezemer, T Martijn; De Deyn, Gerlinde B; Kulmatiski, Andrew; Drigo, Barbara; Veen, G F Ciska; van der Heijden, Marcel G A; Kardol, Paul

2018-02-01

In agricultural and natural systems researchers have demonstrated large effects of plant-soil feedback (PSF) on plant growth. However, the concepts and approaches used in these two types of systems have developed, for the most part, independently. Here, we present a conceptual framework that integrates knowledge and approaches from these two contrasting systems. We use this integrated framework to demonstrate (i) how knowledge from complex natural systems can be used to increase agricultural resource-use efficiency and productivity and (ii) how research in agricultural systems can be used to test hypotheses and approaches developed in natural systems. Using this framework, we discuss avenues for new research toward an ecologically sustainable and climate-smart future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Cold Environments (LATICE): The role of Atmosphere - Biosphere - Cryosphere - Hydrosphere interactions in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkhart, J. F.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Stordal, F.; Berntsen, T.; Westermann, S.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Etzelmuller, B.; Hagen, J. O.; Schuler, T.; Hamran, S. E.; Lande, T. S.; Bryn, A.

2015-12-01

Climate change is impacting the high latitudes more rapidly and significantly than any other region of the Earth because of feedback processes between the atmosphere and the underlying surface. A warmer climate has already led to thawing of permafrost, reducing snow cover and a longer growing season; changes, which in turn influence the atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Still, many studies rely on one-way coupling between the atmosphere and the land surface, thereby neglecting important interactions and feedbacks. The observation, understanding and prediction of such processes from local to regional and global scales, represent a major scientific challenge that requires multidisciplinary scientific effort. The successful integration of earth observations (remote and in-situ data) and model development requires a harmonized research effort between earth system scientists, modelers and the developers of technologies and sensors. LATICE, which is recognized as a priority research area by the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences at the University of Oslo, aims to advance the knowledge base concerning land atmosphere interactions and their role in controlling climate variability and climate change at high northern latitudes. The consortium consists of an interdisciplinary team of experts from the atmospheric and terrestrial (hydrosphere, cryosphere and biosphere) research groups, together with key expertise on earth observations and novel sensor technologies. LATICE addresses critical knowledge gaps in the current climate assessment capacity through: Improving parameterizations of processes in earth system models controlling the interactions and feedbacks between the land (snow, ice, permafrost, soil and vegetation) and the atmosphere at high latitudes, including the boreal, alpine and artic zone. Assessing the influence of climate and land cover changes on water and energy fluxes. Integrating remote earth observations with in-situ data and suitable models to allow studies of finer-scale processes governing land-atmosphere interactions. Addressing observational challenges through the development of novel observational products and networks.

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Thorburn, Peter

2017-01-01

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

GRACE storage-runoff hystereses reveal the dynamics of regional watersheds

EPA Science Inventory

Watersheds function as integrated systems where climate and geology govern the movement of water. In situ instrumentation can provide local-scale insights into the non-linear relationship between streamflow and water stored in a watershed as snow, soil moisture, and groundwater. ...

Novel GIS approaches to watershed science and management: Description, prediction, and integration

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial data and geographic information systems (GIS) are playing an increasingly important role in watershed science and management, particularly in the face of increasing climate uncertainty and demand for water resources. Concomitantly, scientists and managers are presented wi...

An Overview of the Future Development of Climate and Earth System Models for Scientific and Policy Use (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Washington, W. M.

2010-12-01

The development of climate and earth system models has been regarded primarily as the making of scientific tools to study the complex nature of the Earth’s climate. These models have a long history starting with very simple physical models based on fundamental physics in the 1960s and over time they have become much more complex with atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land/vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological components. The policy use aspects of these models did not start in the 1960s and 1970s as decision making tools but were used to answer fundamental scientific questions such as what happens when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases or is doubled. They gave insights into the various interactions and were extensively compared with observations. It was realized that models of the earlier time periods could only give first order answers to many of the fundamental policy questions. As societal concerns about climate change rose, the policy questions of anthropogenic climate change became better defined; they were mostly concerned with the climate impacts of increasing greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land cover change. In the late 1980s, the United Nations set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to perform assessments of the published literature. Thus, the development of climate and Earth system models became intimately linked to the need to not only improve our scientific understanding but also answering fundamental policy questions. In order to meet this challenge, the models became more complex and realistic so that they could address these policy oriented science questions such as rising sea level. The presentation will discuss the past and future development of global climate and earth system models for science and policy purposes. Also to be discussed is their interactions with economic integrated assessment models, regional and specialized models such as river transport or ecological components. As an example of one development pathway, the NSF/Department of Energy supported Community Climate System and Earth System Models will be featured in the presentation. Computational challenges will also part of the discussion.

Evaluation and Verification of Decadal Predictions using the MiKlip Central Evaluation System - a Case Study using the MiKlip Prototype Model Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illing, Sebastian; Schuster, Mareike; Kadow, Christopher; Kröner, Igor; Richling, Andy; Grieger, Jens; Kruschke, Tim; Lang, Benjamin; Redl, Robert; Schartner, Thomas; Cubasch, Ulrich

2016-04-01

MiKlip is project for medium-term climate prediction funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany (BMBF) and aims to create a model system that is able provide reliable decadal climate forecasts. During the first project phase of MiKlip the sub-project INTEGRATION located at Freie Universität Berlin developed a framework for scientific infrastructures (FREVA). More information about FREVA can be found in EGU2016-13060. An instance of this framework is used as Central Evaluation System (CES) during the MiKlip project. Throughout the first project phase various sub-projects developed over 25 analysis tools - so called plugins - for the CES. The main focus of these plugins is on the evaluation and verification of decadal climate prediction data, but most plugins are not limited to this scope. They target a wide range of scientific questions. Starting from preprocessing tools like the "LeadtimeSelector", which creates lead-time dependent time-series from decadal hindcast sets, over tracking tools like the "Zykpak" plugin, which can objectively locate and track mid-latitude cyclones, to plugins like "MurCSS" or "SPECS", which calculate deterministic and probabilistic skill metrics. We also integrated some analyses from Model Evaluation Tools (MET), which was developed at NCAR. We will show the theoretical background, technical implementation strategies, and some interesting results of the evaluation of the MiKlip Prototype decadal prediction system for a selected set of these tools.

The ARM Climate Research Facility - New Capabilities and the Expected Impacts on Climate Science and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voyles, J.; Mather, J. H.

2010-12-01

The ARM Climate Research Facility is a Department of Energy national scientific user facility. Research sites include fixed and mobile facilities, which collect research quality data for climate research. Through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science allocated $60 million to the ARM Climate Research Facility for the purchase of instruments and improvement of research sites. With these funds, ARM is in the process of deploying a broad variety of new instruments that will greatly enhance the measurement capabilities of the facility. New instruments being purchased include dual-frequency scanning cloud radars, scanning precipitation radars, Doppler lidars, a mobile Aerosol Observing System and many others. A list of instruments being purchased is available at http://www.arm.gov/about/recovery-act. Orders for all instruments have now been placed and activities are underway to integrate these new systems with our research sites. The overarching goal is to provide instantaneous and statistical measurements of the climate that can be used to advance the physical understanding and predictive performance of climate models. The Recovery Act investments enable the ARM Climate Research Facility to enhance existing and add new measurements, which enable a more complete understanding of the 3-dimensional evolution of cloud processes and related atmospheric properties. Understanding cloud processes are important globally, to reduce climate-modeling uncertainties and help improve our nation’s ability to manage climate impacts. Domer Plot of W-Band Reflectivity

How can monthly to seasonal forecasts help to better manage power systems? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubus, L.; Troccoli, A.

2013-12-01

The energy industry increasingly depends on weather and climate, at all space and time scales. This is especially true in countries with volunteer renewable energies development policies. There is no doubt that Energy and Meteorology is a burgeoning inter-sectoral discipline. It is also clear that the catalyst for the stronger interaction between these two sectors is the renewed and fervent interest in renewable energies, especially wind and solar power. Recent progress in meteorology has led to a marked increase in the knowledge of the climate system and in the ability to forecast climate on monthly to seasonal time scales. Several studies have already demonstrated the effectiveness of using these forecasts for energy operations, for instance for hydro-power applications. However, it is also obvious that scientific progress on its own is not sufficient to increase the value of weather forecasts. The process of integration of new meteorological products into operational tools and decision making processes is not straightforward but it is at least as important as the scientific discovery. In turn, such integration requires effective communication between users and providers of these products. We will present some important aspects of energy systems in which monthly to seasonal forecasts can bring useful, if not vital, information, and we will give some examples of encouraging energy/meteorology collaborations. We will also provide some suggestions for a strengthened collaboration into the future.

[Study on eco-climatic applicability of Angelica sinensis].

PubMed

Deng, Zhen-Yong; Yin, Xian-Zhi; Yin, Dong; Yang, Qi-Guo; Zhu, Guo-Qing; Liu, Ming-Chun

2005-06-01

In the interest of establish planting base of Angelica sinensis on a large scale, enhance economic benefit, and improve decision-making reasons, the eco-climatic applicability of A. sinensis was studied. Using integral regression, eco-climatic applicability and the effect of meteorological conditions for the yield of A. sinensis' were analysed by field experimental data. Selected > or =0 degrees C accumulated temperature and annual precipitation as leading index, altitude as assistant index, yield and rate of finished products as reference index, the integrated eco-climatic division index and the planting division applicability of A. sinensis was confirmed. Accordancing to theory of climate similitude and leading index summarisation, combining with assistant index and reference index, the integrated division index of eco-climate was confirmed. The planting division of co-climate applicability was divided into 5 grades as best suitable, suitable hypo-suitable, just suitable and no suitable regions. At the same time,the way to enhanced utilizing efficiency of eco-climate resources was brought forward.

Initial comparisons of modular-sized, integrated utility systems and conventional systems for several building types

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benson, H. E.; Monford, L. G., Jr.

1976-01-01

The results of a study of the application of a modular integrated utility system to six typical building types are compared with the application of a conventional utility system to the same facilities. The effects of varying the size and climatic location of the buildings and the size of the powerplants are presented. Construction details of the six building types (garden apartments, a high rise office building, high rise apartments, a shopping center, a high school, and a hospital) and typical site and floor plans are provided. The environmental effects, the unit size determination, and the market potential are discussed. The cost effectiveness of the various design options is not considered.

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; García-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

2015-04-01

Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream-aquifer interaction. SWAT and MODFLOW outputs (nitrate loads from SWAT, groundwater velocity field from MODFLOW) are used as MT3DMS inputs for assessing the fate and transport of nitrate leached from the topsoil. Three climate change scenarios have been considered, corresponding to three different general circulation models (GCMs) for emission scenario A1B that covers the control period, and short-, medium- and long-term future periods. A multi-temporal analysis of LULC change was carried out, helped by the study of historical trends (from remote-sensing images) and key driving forces to explain LULC transitions. Markov chains and European scenarios and projections were used to quantify trends in the future. The cellular automata technique was applied for stochastic modeling future LULC maps. Simulated values of river discharge, crop yields, groundwater levels and nitrate concentrations fit well to the observed ones. The results show the response of groundwater quantity and quality (nitrate pollution) to climate and land use changes, with decreasing groundwater recharge and an increase in nitrate concentrations. The sequential modeling chain has been proven to be a valuable assessment tool for supporting the development of sustainable management strategies.

DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torresan, S.; Gallina, V.; Giannini, V.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2012-04-01

At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users. Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) and high resolution impact models (e.g. hydrodynamic, hydrological and biogeochemical simulations) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs and will be applied to the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) in order to provide climate services for local authorities involved in coastal zone management. Accordingly, a first workshop was held in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities, climate experts and climate change risk experts, in order to start an iterative exchange of information about the knowledge related to climate change, climate models and projections, impact and risk parameters and to know what are stakeholder needs related to climate change in a climate service perspective. The preliminary results gained from the workshop showed that DESYCO is an helpful tool for the impact and risk assessment related to climate change that could be improved in order to fulfill stakeholder needs.

Climate and Tectonics Need Not Apply: Transient Erosion Driven by Drainage Integration, Aravaipa Creek, AZ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungers, M.; Heimsath, A. M.

2013-12-01

Periods of transient erosion during landscape evolution are most commonly attributed to fluvial systems' responses to changes in tectonic or climatic forcing. Dramatic changes in base level and sudden increases in drainage area associated with drainage reorganization can, however, drive punctuated events of incision and erosion equal in magnitude to those driven by tectonics or climate. In southeastern Arizona's Basin and Range, a mature portion of the North American physiographic province, the modern Gila River system integrates a network of previously internally drained structural basins. One basin in particular, Aravaipa Creek, is the most recent to join the broader Gila River fluvial network. Following drainage integration, Aravaipa Creek rapidly incised to equilibrate with its new, much lower, base level. In doing so, it carved Aravaipa Canyon, excavated a large volume of sedimentary basin fill, and captured drainage area from the still internally drained Sulphur Springs basin. Importantly, this dramatic episode of transient incision and erosion was the result of drainage integration alone. We hypothesize that the adjustment time for Aravaipa Creek was shorter than the timescale of any climate forcing, and regional extensional tectonics were quiescent at the time of integration. We can, therefore, explicitly quantify the magnitude of transient incision and erosion driven by drainage reorganization. We use remnants of the paleo-basin surface and modern landscape elevations to reconstruct the pre-drainage integration topography of Aravaipa Creek basin. Doing so enables us to quantify the magnitude of incision driven by drainage reorganization as well as the volume of material eroded from the basin subsequent to integration. Key control points for our landscape reconstruction are: (1) the inferred elevation of the spillover point between Aravaipa Creek and the San Pedro River; (2) Quaternary pediment-capping gravels above Aravaipa Canyon (3) perched remnants of late stage sedimentary basin fill that preserve the slope of the pre-incision piedmonts of the Galiuro Mountains and Santa Teresa Mountains; and (4) the paleo-drainage divide between Aravaipa Creek and Sulphur Springs Valley, approximately 6 km northwest of the modern divide. The pre-incision basin surface sloped from the Sulphur Springs divide (1370 m) to its intersection with the point of integration (1100 m) between Aravaipa Creek and the San Pedro River, 50 km to the northwest. Maximum incision of 450 m occurred in the vicinity of Aravaipa Canyon, and more than 50 cubic kilometers of material have been eroded from Aravaipa Creek basin. Finally, cosmogenic nuclide burial dates for latest stage sedimentary basin fill enable us to constrain the timing of drainage integration and place first-order constraints on paleo-erosion rates.

Cryosphere Science Outreach using the NASA/JPL Virtual Earth System Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larour, E. Y.; Cheng, D. L. C.; Quinn, J.; Halkides, D. J.; Perez, G. L.

2016-12-01

Understanding the role of Cryosphere Science within the larger context of Sea Level Rise is both a technical and educational challenge that needs to be addressed if the public at large is to truly understand the implications and consequences of Climate Change. Within this context, we propose a new approach in which scientific tools are used directly inside a mobile/website platform geared towards Education/Outreach. Here, we apply this approach by using the Ice Sheet System Model, a state of the art Cryosphere model developed at NASA, and integrated within a Virtual Earth System Laboratory, with the goal to outreach Cryosphere science to K-12 and College level students. The approach mixes laboratory experiments, interactive classes/lessons on a website, and a simplified interface to a full-fledged instance of ISSM to validate the classes/lessons. This novel approach leverages new insights from the Outreach/Educational community and the interest of new generations in web based technologies and simulation tools, all of it delivered in a seamlessly integrated web platform, relying on a state of the art climate model and live simulations.

National Climate Assessment - Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) Data at NASA GES DISC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Teng, Bill; Vollmer, Bruce; Jasinski, Michael; Mocko, David; Kempler, Steven

2016-01-01

As part of NASA's active participation in the Interagency National Climate Assessment (NCA) program, the Goddard Space Flight Center's Hydrological Sciences Laboratory (HSL) is supporting an Integrated Terrestrial Water Analysis, by using NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) capabilities. To maximize the benefit of the NCA-LDAS, on completion of planned model runs and uncertainty analysis, NASA will provide open access to all NCA-LDAS components, including input data, output fields, and indicator data, to other NCA-teams and the general public. The NCA-LDAS data will be archived at the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center) and can be accessed via direct ftp, THREDDS, Mirador search and download, and Giovanni visualization and analysis system.

Sustaining Engagements for Integrated Heat-Health Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trtanj, J.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events are on the rise, evidenced by the record breaking heat in the summer of 2016 in the US, increased heat-related death toll in south Asia, and projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The impacts, responses and adaptation to extreme heat are inherently local or region in nature and require multisector engagement to manage current and future heat risks. Understanding the character of the information demand, who needs it, when and how it is needed, how it is used, and the remaining research questions, requires sustained engagement of multiple science and decision making communities. The construct of Integrated Information Systems provides the framework that sustains this dialogue, supports the production of useful information, and the translation of knowledge to action. The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS), a multi-agency collaboration, working at state, local and international levels, designed to facilitate an integrated approach to providing a suite of decision support services that reduce heat-related illness and death. NIHHIS sustains engagement across the public health, emergency management, disaster risk reduction, planning, housing, communication, climate, weather and other science communities. This presentation will highlight NIHHS sustained engagements in the Rio Grande Bravo region, other NIHHIS pilots, and international efforts building on the NIHHIS framework. NIHHIS, launched by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2015, now has over eight Federal partners and a burgeoning mix of pilots, projects and partners at state, local and international levels.

Application of an Integrated Assessment Model with state-level resolution for examining strategies for addressing air, climate and energy goals

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used for exploring future scenarios and examining strategies that address air pollution, climate change, and energy goals. GCAM includes technology-rich representations of the energy, transportati...

The key role of the meat industry in transformation to a low-carbon, climate resilient, sustainable economy.

PubMed

Rijsberman, Frank

2017-10-01

Climate change, air pollution and refugees have become key global challenges threatening sustainability of lifestyles, economies and ecosystems. Agri-food systems are the number one driver of environmental change. Livestock production is the world's largest land user, responsible for half of greenhouse gas emissions from agri-food systems, and the source of repeated health crises. Poor diets have become the number one cause of ill health. Recommendations for a healthy diet emphasize plant-based food. Rapidly falling costs in information technology, biotechnology, renewable energy and battery technology will disrupt current energy and transportation systems and offer opportunities for responsible meat production. Growing consumer interest in healthy food, combined with innovative information systems, offer opportunities to create value through quality control and consumer information in integrated value chains. Meat scientists have a major role to play in the necessary transformation of global agri-food systems towards a new model of green economic growth that is climate resilient, sustainable and provides green jobs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

HOW THE LEED VENTILATION CREDIT IMPACTS ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF GSHP SYSTEMS A CASE STUDY FOR PRIMARY SCHOOLS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Xiaobing

2011-01-01

This paper presents a study on the impacts of increased outdoor air (OA) ventilation on the performance of ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems that heat and cool typical primary schools. Four locations Phoenix, Miami, Seattle, and Chicago are selected in this study to represent different climate zones in the United States. eQUEST, an integrated building and HVAC system energy analysis program, is used to simulate a typical primary school and the GSHP system at the four locations with minimum and 30% more than minimum OA ventilation. The simulation results show that, without an energy recovery ventilator, the 30% more OAmore » ventilation results in an 8.0 13.3% increase in total GSHP system energy consumption at the four locations. The peak heating and cooling loads increase by 20.2 30% and 14.9 18.4%, respectively, at the four locations. The load imbalance of the ground heat exchanger is increased in hot climates but reduced in mild and cold climates.« less

Projecting Future Water Levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennington, V.; Notaro, M.; Holman, K.

2013-12-01

The Laurentian Great Lakes are the largest freshwater system on Earth, containing 84% of North America's freshwater. The lakes are a valuable economic and recreational resource, valued at over 62 billion in annual wages and supporting a 7 billion fishery. Shipping, recreation, and coastal property values are significantly impacted by water level variability, with large economic consequences. Great Lakes water levels fluctuate both seasonally and long-term, responding to natural and anthropogenic climate changes. Due to the integrated nature of water levels, a prolonged small change in any one of the net basin supply components: over-lake precipitation, watershed runoff, or evaporation from the lake surface, may result in important trends in water levels. We utilize the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics's Regional Climate Model Version 4.5.6 to dynamically downscale three global global climate models that represent a spread of potential future climate change for the region to determine whether the climate models suggest a robust response of the Laurentian Great Lakes to anthropogenic climate change. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version 5 (MIROC5), the National Centre for Meteorological Research Earth system model (CNRM-CM5), and the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) project different regional temperature increases and precipitation change over the next century and are used as lateral boundary conditions. We simulate the historical (1980-2000) and late-century periods (2080-2100). Upon model evaluation we will present dynamically downscaled projections of net basin supply changes for each of the Laurentian Great Lakes.

On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Naiming; Huang, Yan; Duan, Jianping; Zhu, Congwen; Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Jürg

2018-03-01

Slowing variability in climate system is an important source of climate predictability. However, it is still challenging for current dynamical models to fully capture the variability as well as its impacts on future climate. In this study, instead of simulating the internal multi-scale oscillations in dynamical models, we discussed the effects of internal variability in terms of climate memory. By decomposing climate state x(t) at a certain time point t into memory part M(t) and non-memory part ɛ (t) , climate memory effects from the past 30 years on climate prediction are quantified. For variables with strong climate memory, high variance (over 20% ) in x(t) is explained by the memory part M(t), and the effects of climate memory are non-negligible for most climate variables, but the precipitation. Regarding of multi-steps climate prediction, a power law decay of the explained variance was found, indicating long-lasting climate memory effects. The explained variances by climate memory can remain to be higher than 10% for more than 10 time steps. Accordingly, past climate conditions can affect both short (monthly) and long-term (interannual, decadal, or even multidecadal) climate predictions. With the memory part M(t) precisely calculated from Fractional Integral Statistical Model, one only needs to focus on the non-memory part ɛ (t) , which is an important quantity that determines climate predictive skills.

Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model - Part 1: Abatement share and investment in low-carbon technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogutu, K. B. Z.; D'Andrea, F.; Ghil, M.; Nyandwi, C.; Manene, M. M.; Muthama, J. N.

2015-04-01

The Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model described herein takes an integrated assessment approach to simulating global change. By using an endogenous economic growth module with physical and human capital accumulation, this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth, as economic activity intensifies greenhouse gas emissions that in turn cause economic damage due to climate change. Different types of fossil fuels and different technologies produce different volumes of carbon dioxide in combustion. The shares of different fuels and their future evolution are not known. We assume that the dynamics of hydrocarbon-based energy share and their replacement with renewable energy sources in the global energy balance can be modeled into the 21st century by use of logistic functions. Various climate change mitigation policy measures are considered. While many integrated assessment models treat abatement costs merely as an unproductive loss of income, we consider abatement activities also as an investment in overall energy efficiency of the economy and decrease of overall carbon intensity of the energy system. The paper shows that these efforts help to reduce the volume of industrial carbon dioxide emissions, lower temperature deviations, and lead to positive effects in economic growth.

Can We Consume Our Way Out of Climate Change? A Call for Analysis

PubMed Central

Grant, Lyle K

2011-01-01

The problem of climate change is analyzed as a manifestation of economic growth, and the steady-state economy of ecological economics is proposed as a system-wide solution. Four classes of more specific solutions are described. In the absence of analysis, cultural inertia will bias solutions in favor of green consumption as a generalized solution strategy. By itself, green consumption is a flawed solution to climate change because it perpetuates or even accelerates economic growth that is incompatible with a sustainable culture. Addressing climate change requires an integration of regulatory, energy efficiency, skill-based, and dissemination solutions. Behavioral scientists are encouraged to work with others in ecological economics and other social sciences who recognize cultural reinvention as a means of achieving sustainability. PMID:22532747

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Using landscape typologies to model socioecological systems: Application to agriculture of the United States Gulf Coast

DOE PAGES

Preston, Benjamin L.; King, Anthony Wayne; Mei, Rui; ...

2016-02-11

Agricultural enterprises are vulnerable to the effects of climate variability and change. Improved understanding of the determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in agricultural systems is important for projecting and managing future climate risk. At present, three analytical tools dominate methodological approaches to understanding agroecological vulnerability to climate: process-based crop models, empirical crop models, and integrated assessment models. A common weakness of these approaches is their limited treatment of socio-economic conditions and human agency in modeling agroecological processes and outcomes. This study proposes a framework that uses spatial cluster analysis to generate regional socioecological typologies that capture geographic variance inmore » regional agricultural production and enable attribution of that variance to climatic, topographic, edaphic, and socioeconomic components. This framework was applied to historical corn production (1986-2010) in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region as a testbed. The results demonstrate that regional socioeconomic heterogeneity is an important driving force in human dominated ecosystems, which we hypothesize, is a function of the link between socioeconomic conditions and the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems. Meaningful representation of future agricultural responses to climate variability and change is contingent upon understanding interactions among biophysical conditions, socioeconomic conditions, and human agency their incorporation in predictive models.« less

El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming

PubMed Central

Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S.

2009-01-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO2, accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

Using landscape typologies to model socioecological systems: Application to agriculture of the United States Gulf Coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Benjamin L.; King, Anthony Wayne; Mei, Rui

Agricultural enterprises are vulnerable to the effects of climate variability and change. Improved understanding of the determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in agricultural systems is important for projecting and managing future climate risk. At present, three analytical tools dominate methodological approaches to understanding agroecological vulnerability to climate: process-based crop models, empirical crop models, and integrated assessment models. A common weakness of these approaches is their limited treatment of socio-economic conditions and human agency in modeling agroecological processes and outcomes. This study proposes a framework that uses spatial cluster analysis to generate regional socioecological typologies that capture geographic variance inmore » regional agricultural production and enable attribution of that variance to climatic, topographic, edaphic, and socioeconomic components. This framework was applied to historical corn production (1986-2010) in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region as a testbed. The results demonstrate that regional socioeconomic heterogeneity is an important driving force in human dominated ecosystems, which we hypothesize, is a function of the link between socioeconomic conditions and the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems. Meaningful representation of future agricultural responses to climate variability and change is contingent upon understanding interactions among biophysical conditions, socioeconomic conditions, and human agency their incorporation in predictive models.« less

El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

PubMed

Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

2009-12-08

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-01-01

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (−) and one month ago (−)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (−)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future. PMID:26848675

Impacts of Climatic Variability on Vibrio parahaemolyticus Outbreaks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Hsiao, Hsin-I; Jan, Man-Ser; Chi, Hui-Ju

2016-02-03

This study aimed to investigate and quantify the relationship between climate variation and incidence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. Specifically, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models (including autoregression, seasonality, and a lag-time effect) were employed to predict the role of climatic factors (including temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, ocean temperature and ocean salinity) on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan between 2000 and 2011. The results indicated that average temperature (+), ocean temperature (+), ocean salinity of 6 months ago (+), maximum daily rainfall (current (-) and one month ago (-)), and average relative humidity (current and 9 months ago (-)) had significant impacts on the incidence of V. parahaemolyticus. Our findings offer a novel view of the quantitative relationship between climate change and food poisoning by V. parahaemolyticus in Taiwan. An early warning system based on climate change information for the disease control management is required in future.

pyhector: A Python interface for the simple climate model Hector

DOE PAGES

Willner, Sven N.; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

2017-04-01

Here, pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary productionmore » and respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system. The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2.« less

A coupled human-natural systems analysis of irrigated agriculture under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

2016-09-01

Exponentially growing water demands and increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes due to changes in climate and land use are challenging the sustainability of agricultural water systems. Farmers must adapt their management strategies in order to secure food production and avoid crop failures. Investigating the potential for adaptation policies in agricultural systems requires accounting for their natural and human components, along with their reciprocal interactions. Yet this feedback is generally overlooked in the water resources systems literature. In this work, we contribute a novel modeling approach to study the coevolution of irrigated agriculture under changing climate, advancing the representation of the human component within agricultural systems by using normative meta-models to describe the behaviors of groups of farmers or institutional decisions. These behavioral models, validated against observational data, are then integrated into a coupled human-natural system simulation model to better represent both systems and their coevolution under future changing climate conditions, assuming the adoption of different policy adaptation options, such as cultivating less water demanding crops. The application to the pilot study of the Adda River basin in northern Italy shows that the dynamic coadaptation of water supply and demand allows farmers to avoid estimated potential losses of more than 10 M€/yr under projected climate changes, while unilateral adaptation of either the water supply or the demand are both demonstrated to be less effective. Results also show that the impact of the different policy options varies as function of drought intensity, with water demand adaptation outperforming water supply adaptation when drought conditions become more severe.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

PubMed

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

PubMed

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

PubMed Central

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

The MedCLIVAR Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, Piero; Medclivar sg, The

2013-04-01

The MedCLIVAR initiative was first proposed at the 2003 European Geosciences Union assembly in Nice, France. In 2005, it was endorsed by the International Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) office. Subsequently, the MedCLIVAR Research Network Project was formally approved by the European Science Foundation and launched in May 2006 with the support of funding agencies from 12 countries. Since then, MedCLIVAR has served as a scientific network to promote interaction among different scientific disciplines and to develop a multidisciplinary vision of the evolution of the Mediterranean climate through studies that integrate atmospheric, marine, and terrestrial climate components at time scales ranging from paleoreconstructions to future climate scenarios. Presently, the network continues dealing with scientific issues including past climate variability; connections between the Mediterranean and global climate; the Mediterranean Sea circulation and sea level; feedbacks on the global climate system; and regional responses to greenhouse gas, air pollution, and aerosols. Its present activities include the publication of a newsletter, the organization of the next MedCLIVAR conference in 2014 and the publication of a special issue of Regional Environmental Change devoted to the climate of the Mediterranean region.

School Leadership: A Blueprint for Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomson, Scott D., Ed.

The new age of education shows an increasing focus on human development through family involvement, community learning resources, community social service, staff development, involvement, technology, learning climate, and motivation/reward systems. Integration of these areas calls for skills that are not traditionally taught to school leaders.…

ICLUS Tools and Datasets (Version 1.3.2)

EPA Science Inventory

As a part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project, this Geographic Information System (GIS) tool can be used to generate scenarios of housing-density changes and calculate impervious surface cover for the conterminous United States. The ICLUS User’s Guid...

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Kelly, David; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Glotter, Michael; Jhunjhnuwala, Kanika; Best, Neil; Wilde, Michael; Foster, Ian

2014-01-01

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

Exploring Remote Sensing Products Online with Giovanni for Studying Urbanization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory G.; Gerasimov, Irina; Kempler, Steve

2012-01-01

Recently, a Large amount of MODIS land products at multi-spatial resolutions have been integrated into the online system, Giovanni, to support studies on land cover and land use changes focused on Northern Eurasia and Monsoon Asia regions. Giovanni (Goddard Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) is a Web-based application developed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES-DISC) providing a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access Earth science remotely-sensed and modeled data. The customized Giovanni Web portals (Giovanni-NEESPI and Giovanni-MAIRS) are created to integrate land, atmospheric, cryospheric, and social products, that enable researchers to do quick exploration and basic analyses of land surface changes and their relationships to climate at global and regional scales. This presentation documents MODIS land surface products in Giovanni system. As examples, images and statistical analysis results on land surface and local climate changes associated with urbanization over Yangtze River Delta region, China, using data in Giovanni are shown.

Integrating climatic and fuels information into National Fire Risk Decision Support Tools

Treesearch

W. Cooke; V. Anantharaj; C. Wax; J. Choi; K. Grala; M. Jolly; G.P. Dixon; J. Dyer; D.L. Evans; G.B. Goodrich

2007-01-01

The Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) is a component of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Decision Support Systems (DSS) that support fire potential modeling. Fire potential models for Mississippi and for Eastern fire environments have been developed as part of a National Aeronautic and Space Agency-funded study aimed at demonstrating the utility...

City-integrated renewable energy for urban sustainability.

PubMed

Kammen, Daniel M; Sunter, Deborah A

2016-05-20

To prepare for an urban influx of 2.5 billion people by 2050, it is critical to create cities that are low-carbon, resilient, and livable. Cities not only contribute to global climate change by emitting the majority of anthropogenic greenhouse gases but also are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and extreme weather. We explore options for establishing sustainable energy systems by reducing energy consumption, particularly in the buildings and transportation sectors, and providing robust, decentralized, and renewable energy sources. Through technical advancements in power density, city-integrated renewable energy will be better suited to satisfy the high-energy demands of growing urban areas. Several economic, technical, behavioral, and political challenges need to be overcome for innovation to improve urban sustainability. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The Integrating Role of the LBA and the LPB Programs as an Example of Cyberinfrastructures in International Scientific Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, P. L.

2007-05-01

International science collaboration is a key component of research programs such as the The Large Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Interaction Program (LBA) and the La Plata Basin Project (LPB). Both are programs with crosscutting science questions permeating different areas of knowledge related to the functioning of the natural and agricultural ecosystems in the Amazon system (LBA) and the change in the hydrological, agricultural and social systems of the Plata Basin (LPB) ecosystem under natural climatic variability and climate change. Both programs are strongly related to GEWEX, CLIVAR and IGBP and are based on extensive use of data information system (LBA/LPB/DIS) with mirror sites in the US, Europe and South America. These international programs have a significant impact in building up regional scientific capabilities at all levels of education and triggered the establishment of new research groups located in remote areas of South America. The cyberinfrastructure has been fundamental to promote the integration of the research groups, and a remarkable feedback with the operational forecasting systems has been detected. The LBA/LPB should be used as examples on how to promote international scientific and operational collaboration.

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD

PubMed Central

Lorenz, David J.; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950–2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850–2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity. PMID:27377537

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD.

PubMed

Lorenz, David J; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Williams, John W

2016-07-05

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950-2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity.

Performance evaluation of a non-hydrostatic regional climate model over the Mediterranean/Black Sea area and climate projections for the XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, Paola; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Montesarchio, Myriam; Zollo, Alessandra Lucia

2013-04-01

In the framework of the Work Package 4 (Developing integrated tools for environmental assessment) of PERSEUS Project, high resolution climate simulations have been performed, with the aim of furthering knowledge in the field of climate variability at regional scale, its causes and impacts. CMCC is a no profit centre whose aims are the promotion, research coordination and scientific activities in the field of climate changes. In this work, we show results of numerical simulation performed over a very wide area (13W-46E; 29-56N) at spatial resolution of 14 km, which includes the Mediterranean and Black Seas, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. It is a non-hydrostatic model for the simulation of atmospheric processes, developed by the DWD-Germany for weather forecast services; successively, the model has been updated by the CLM-Community, in order to develop climatic applications. It is the only documented numerical model system in Europe designed for spatial resolutions down to 1 km with a range of applicability encompassing operational numerical weather prediction, regional climate modelling the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol and idealised studies and applicable in all regions of the world for a wide range of available climate simulations from global climate and NWP models. Different reasons justify the development of a regional model: the first is the increasing number of works in literature asserting that regional models have also the features to provide more detailed description of the climate extremes, that are often more important then their mean values for natural and human systems. The second one is that high resolution modelling shows adequate features to provide information for impact assessment studies. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A simulation covering the period 1971-2000 and driven by ERA40 reanalysis has been performed, in order to assess the capability of the model to reproduce the present climate, with "perfect boundary conditions". A comparison, in terms of 2-metre temperature and precipitation, with EOBS dataset will be shown and discussed, in order to analyze the capabilities in simulating the main features of the observed climate over a wide area, at high spatial resolution. Then, a comparison between the results of COSMO-CLM driven by the global model CMCC-MED (whose atmospheric component is ECHAM5) and by ERA40 will be provided for a characterization of the errors induced by the global model. Finally, climate projections on the examined area for the XXI century, considering the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the future, will be provided. In this work a special emphasis will be issued to the analysis of the capability to reproduce not only the average climate trend but also extremes of the present and future climate, in terms of temperature, precipitation and wind.

Developing a framework to assess the water quality and quantity impacts of climate change, shifting land use, and urbanization in a Midwestern agricultural landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loheide, S. P.; Booth, E. G.; Kucharik, C. J.; Carpenter, S. R.; Gries, C.; Katt-Reinders, E.; Rissman, A. R.; Turner, M. G.

2011-12-01

Dynamic hydrological processes play a critical role in the structure and functioning of agricultural watersheds undergoing urbanization. Developing a predictive understanding of the complex interaction between agricultural productivity, ecosystem health, water quality, urban development, and public policy requires an interdisciplinary effort that investigates the important biophysical and social processes of the system. Our research group has initiated such a framework that includes a coordinated program of integrated scenarios, model experiments to assess the effects of changing drivers on a broad set of ecosystem services, evaluations of governance and leverage points, outreach and public engagement, and information management. Our geographic focus is the Yahara River watershed in south-central Wisconsin, which is an exemplar of water-related issues in the Upper Midwest. This research addresses three specific questions. 1) How do different patterns of land use, land cover, land management, and water resources engineering practices affect the resilience and sensitivity of ecosystem services under a changing climate? 2) How can regional governance systems for water and land use be made more resilient and adaptive to meet diverse human needs? 3) In what ways are regional human-environment systems resilient and in what ways are they vulnerable to potential changes in climate and water resources? A comprehensive program of model experiments and biophysical measurements will be utilized to evaluate changes in five freshwater ecosystem services (flood regulation, groundwater recharge, surface water quality, groundwater quality, and lake recreation) and five related ecosystem services (food crop yields, bioenergy crop yields, carbon storage in soil, albedo, and terrestrial recreation). Novel additions to existing biophysical models will allow us to simulate all components of the hydrological cycle as well as agricultural productivity, nitrogen and phosphorus transport, and lake water quality. The integrated model will be validated using a comprehensive observational database that includes soil moisture, evapotranspiration, stomatal conductance, streamflow, stream and lake water quality, and crop yields and productivity. Integrated scenarios will be developed to synthesize decision-maker perspectives, alternative approaches to resource governance, plausible trends in demographic and economic drivers, and model projections under alternate climate and land use regimes to understand future conditions of the watershed and its ecosystem services. The quantitative data and integrated scenarios will then be linked to evaluate governance of water and land use.

Developing Flexible, Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Systems for Multiscale Analysis in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.; Sharma, A.; Byun, K.; Hanson, Z.

2016-12-01

Physically based hydrologic modeling of surface and groundwater resources that can be flexibly and efficiently applied to support water resources policy/planning/management decisions at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales are greatly needed in the Midwest, where stakeholder access to such tools is currently a fundamental barrier to basic climate change assessment and adaptation efforts, and also the co-production of useful products to support detailed decision making. Based on earlier pilot studies in the Pacific Northwest Region, we are currently assembling a suite of end-to-end tools and resources to support various kinds of water resources planning and management applications across the region. One of the key aspects of these integrated tools is that the user community can access gridded products at any point along the end-to-end chain of models, looking backwards in time about 100 years (1915-2015), and forwards in time about 85 years using CMIP5 climate model projections. The integrated model is composed of historical and projected future meteorological data based on station observations and statistical and dynamically downscaled climate model output respectively. These gridded meteorological data sets serve as forcing data for the macro-scale VIC hydrologic model implemented over the Midwest at 1/16 degree resolution. High-resolution climate model (4km WRF) output provides inputs for the analyses of urban impacts, hydrologic extremes, agricultural impacts, and impacts to the Great Lakes. Groundwater recharge estimated by the surface water model provides input data for fine-scale and macro-scale groundwater models needed for specific applications. To highlight the multi-scale use of the integrated models in support of co-production of scientific information for decision making, we briefly describe three current case studies addressing different spatial scales of analysis: 1) Effects of climate change on the water balance of the Great Lakes, 2) Future hydropower resources in the St. Joseph River basin, 3) Effects of climate change on carbon cycling in small lakes in the Northern Highland Lakes District.

Using Virtualization to Integrate Weather, Climate, and Coastal Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; Figueiredo, R.; Sheng, Y.

2012-12-01

To better understand and communicate the important roles of weather and climate on the coastal environment, a unique publically available tool is being developed to support research, education, and outreach activities. This tool uses virtualization technologies to facilitate an interactive, hands-on environment in which students, researchers, and general public can perform their own numerical modeling experiments. While prior efforts have focused solely on the study of the coastal and estuary environments, this effort incorporates the community supported weather and climate model (WRF-ARW) into the Coastal Science Educational Virtual Appliance (CSEVA), an education tool used to assist in the learning of coastal transport processes; storm surge and inundation; and evacuation modeling. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation, community developed and supported, mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to be used internationally for research, operations, and teaching. It includes two dynamical solvers (ARW - Advanced Research WRF and NMM - Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) as well as a data assimilation system. WRF-ARW is the ARW dynamics solver combined with other components of the WRF system which was developed primarily at NCAR, community support provided by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) division of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Included with WRF is the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) which is a set of programs to prepare input for real-data simulations. The CSEVA is based on the Grid Appliance (GA) framework and is built using virtual machine (VM) and virtual networking technologies. Virtualization supports integration of an operating system, libraries (e.g. Fortran, C, Perl, NetCDF, etc. necessary to build WRF), web server, numerical models/grids/inputs, pre-/post-processing tools (e.g. WPS / RIP4 or UPS), graphical user interfaces, "Cloud"-computing infrastructure and other tools into a single ready-to-use package. Thus, the previous ornery task of setting up and compiling these tools becomes obsolete and the research, educator or student can focus on using the tools to study the interactions between weather, climate and the coastal environment. The incorporation of WRF into the CSEVA has been designed to be synergistic with the extensive online tutorials and biannual tutorials hosted by NCAR. Included are working examples of the idealized test simulations provided with WRF (2D sea breeze and squalls, a large eddy simulation, a Held and Suarez simulation, etc.) To demonstrate the integration of weather, coastal and coastal science education, example applications are being developed to demonstrate how the system can be used to couple a coastal and estuarine circulation, transport and storm surge model with downscale reanalysis weather and future climate predictions. Documentation, tutorials and the enhanced CSEVA itself will be found on the web at: http://cseva.coastal.ufl.edu.

Initial Results from the Survey of Organizational Research Climates (SOuRCe) in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Healthcare System.

PubMed

Martinson, Brian C; Nelson, David; Hagel-Campbell, Emily; Mohr, David; Charns, Martin P; Bangerter, Ann; Thrush, Carol R; Ghilardi, Joseph R; Bloomfield, Hanna; Owen, Richard; Wells, James A

2016-01-01

In service to its core mission of improving the health and well-being of veterans, Veterans Affairs (VA) leadership is committed to supporting research best practices in the VA. Recognizing that the behavior of researchers is influenced by the organizational climates in which they work, efforts to assess the integrity of research climates and share such information with research leadership in VA may be one way to support research best practices. The Survey of Organizational Research Climate (SOuRCe) is the first validated survey instrument specifically designed to assess the organizational climate of research integrity in academic research organizations. The current study reports on an initiative to use the SOuRCe in VA facilities to characterize the organizational research climates and pilot test the effectiveness of using SOuRCe data as a reporting and feedback intervention tool. We administered the SOuRCe using a cross-sectional, online survey, with mailed follow-up to non-responders, of research-engaged employees in the research services of a random selection of 42 VA facilities (e.g., Hospitals/Stations) believed to employ 20 or more research staff. We attained a 51% participation rate, yielding more than 5,200 usable surveys. We found a general consistency in organizational research climates across a variety of sub-groups in this random sample of research services in the VA. We also observed similar SOuRCe scale score means, relative rankings of these scales and their internal reliability, in this VA-based sample as we have previously documented in more traditional academic research settings. Results also showed more substantial variability in research climate scores within than between facilities in the VA research service as reflected in meaningful subgroup differences. These findings suggest that the SOuRCe is suitable as an instrument for assessing the research integrity climates in VA and that the tool has similar patterns of results that have been observed in more traditional academic research settings. The local and specific nature of organizational climates in VA research services, as reflected in variability across sub-groups within individual facilities, has important policy implications. Global, "one-size-fits-all" type initiatives are not likely to yield as much benefit as efforts targeted to specific organizational units or sub-groups and tailored to the specific strengths and weaknesses documented in those locations.

Two Case Studies to Quantify Resilience across Food-Energy-Water Systems: the Columbia River Treaty and Adaptation in Yakima River Basin Irrigation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, K.; Adam, J. C.; Richey, A.; Rushi, B. R.; Stockle, C.; Yoder, J.; Barik, M.; Lee, S. Y.; Rajagopalan, K.; Brady, M.; Barber, M. E.; Boll, J.; Padowski, J.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) plays a significant role in meeting agricultural and hydroelectric demands nationwide. Climatic and anthropogenic stressors, however, potentially threaten the productivity, resilience, and environmental health of the region. Our objective is to understand how resilience of each Food-Energy-Water (FEW) sector, and the combined Nexus, respond to exogenous perturbations and the extent to which technological and institutional advances can buffer these perturbations. In the process of taking information from complex integrated models and assessing resilience across FEW sectors, we start with two case studies: 1) Columbia River Treaty (CRT) with Canada that determines how multiple reservoirs in the Columbia River basin (CRB) are operated, and 2) climate change adaptation actions in the Yakima River basin (YRB). We discuss these case studies in terms of the similarities and contrasts related to FEW sectors and management complexities. Both the CRB and YBP systems are highly sensitive to climate change (they are both snowmelt-dominant) and already experience water conflict. The CRT is currently undergoing renegotiation; a new CRT will need to consider a much more comprehensive approach, e.g., treating environmental flows explicitly. The YRB also already experiences significant water conflict and thus the comprehensive Yakima Basin Integrated Plan (YBIP) is being pursued. We apply a new modeling framework that mechanistically captures the interactions between the FEW sectors to quantify the impacts of CRT and YBIP planning (as well as adaptation decisions taken by individuals, e.g., irrigators) on resilience in each sector. Proposed modification to the CRT may relieve impacts to multiple sectors. However, in the YRB, irrigators' actions to adapt to climate change (through investing in more efficient irrigation technology) could reduce downstream water availability for other users. Developing a process to quantify resilience to perturbations, such as climate change, will enable innovative solutions that co-balance benefits, and ultimately increase resilience, across all FEW sectors.

Climate impact analysis of waste treatment scenarios--thermal treatment of commercial and pretreated waste versus landfilling in Austria.

PubMed

Ragossnig, A M; Wartha, C; Pomberger, R

2009-11-01

A major challenge for modern waste management lies in a smart integration of waste-to-energy installations in local energy systems in such a way that the energy efficiency of the waste-to-energy plant is optimized and that the energy contained in the waste is, therefore, optimally utilized. The extent of integration of thermal waste treatment processes into regular energy supply systems plays a major role with regard to climate control. In this research, the specific waste management situation looked at scenarios aiming at maximizing the energy recovery from waste (i.e. actual scenario and waste-to-energy process with 75% energy efficiency [22.5% electricity, 52.5% heat]) yield greenhouse gas emission savings due to the fact that more greenhouse gas emissions are avoided in the energy sector than caused by the various waste treatment processes. Comparing dedicated waste-to-energy-systems based on the combined heat and power (CHP) process with concepts based on sole electricity production, the energy efficiency proves to be crucial with regard to climate control. This underlines the importance of choosing appropriate sites for waste-to-energy-plants. This research was looking at the effect with regard to the climate impact of various waste management scenarios that could be applied alternatively by a private waste management company in Austria. The research is, therefore, based on a specific set of data for the waste streams looked at (waste characteristics, logistics needed, etc.). Furthermore, the investigated scenarios have been defined based on the actual available alternatives with regard to the usage of treatment plants for this specific company. The standard scenarios for identifying climate impact implications due to energy recovery from waste are based on the respective marginal energy data for the power and heat generation facilities/industrial processes in Austria.

Assessing the Roles of Regional Climate Uncertainty, Policy, and Economics on Future Risks to Water Stress: A Large-Ensemble Pilot Case for Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K. M.; Gao, X.; Fant, C. W.; Blanc, E.; Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Arndt, C.; Prinn, R. G.; Reilly, J. M.; Jacoby, H.

2013-12-01

The fate of natural and managed water resources is controlled to varying degrees by interlinked energy, agricultural, and environmental systems, as well as the hydro-climate cycles. The need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional change calls for likelihood quantification of outcomes via the representation of uncertainty - to the fullest extent possible. A hybrid approach of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework provides probabilistic projections of regional climate change - generated in tandem with consistent socio-economic projections. A Water Resources System (WRS) then tracks water allocation and availability across these competing demands. As such, the IGSM-WRS is an integrated tool that provides quantitative insights on the risks and sustainability of water resources over large river basins. This pilot project focuses the IGSM-WRS on Southeast Asia (Figure 1). This region presents exceptional challenges toward sustainable water resources given its texture of basins that traverse and interconnect developing nations as well as large, ascending economies and populations - such as China and India. We employ the IGSM-WRS in a large ensemble of outcomes spanning hydro-climatic, economic, and policy uncertainties. For computational efficiency, a Gaussian Quadrature procedure sub-samples these outcomes (Figure 2). The IGSM-WRS impacts are quantified through frequency distributions of water stress changes. The results allow for interpretation of: the effects of policy measures; impacts on food production; and the value of design flexibility of infrastructure/institutions. An area of model development and exploration is the feedback of water-stress shocks to economic activity (i.e. GDP and land use). We discuss these further results (where possible) as well as other efforts to refine: uncertainty methods, greater basin-level and climate detail, and process-level representation glacial melt-water sources. Figure 1 Figure 2

Comparisons with observational and experimental manipulation data imply needed conceptual changes to ESM land models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

The land models integrated in Earth System Models (ESMs) are critical components necessary to predict soil carbon dynamics and carbon-climate interactions under a changing climate. Yet, these models have been shown to have poor predictive power when compared with observations and ignore many processes known to the observational communities to influence above and belowground carbon dynamics. Here I will report work to tightly couple observations and perturbation experiment results with development of an ESM land model (ALM), focusing on nutrient constraints of the terrestrial C cycle. Using high-frequency flux tower observations and short-term nitrogen and phosphorus perturbation experiments, we show that conceptualizing plant and soil microbe interactions as a multi-substrate, multi-competitor kinetic network allows for accurate prediction of nutrient acquisition. Next, using multiple-year FACE and fertilization response observations at many forest sites, we show that capturing the observed responses requires representation of dynamic allocation to respond to the resulting stresses. Integrating the mechanisms implied by these observations into ALM leads to much lower observational bias and to very different predictions of long-term soil and aboveground C stocks and dynamics, and therefore C-climate feedbacks. I describe how these types of observational constraints are being integrated into the open-source International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package, and end with the argument that consolidating as many observations of all sorts for easy use by modelers is an important goal to improve C-climate feedback predictions.

Translating Scientific Judgment, Technological Insight and Economic Theory Into Practical Policy Lessons: The Case of Climate Regulation in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mignone, B. K.

2008-12-01

Effective solutions to the climate change problem will require unprecedented cooperation across space, continuity across time and coordination between disciplines. One well-known methodology for synthesizing the lessons of physical science, energy engineering and economics is integrated assessment. Typically, integrated assessment models use scientific and technological relationships as physical constraints in a larger macroeconomic optimization that is designed to either balance the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation or find the least-cost path to an exogenously prescribed endpoint (e.g. atmospheric CO2 stabilization). The usefulness of these models depends to a large extent on the quality of the assumptions and the relevance of the outcome metrics chosen by the user. In this study, I show how a scientifically-based emissions reduction scenario can be combined with engineering-based assumptions about the energy system (e.g. estimates of the marginal cost premium of carbon-free technology) to yield insights about the price path of CO2 under a future regulatory regime. I then show how this outcome metric (carbon price) relates to key decisions about the design of a future cap-and-trade system and the way in which future carbon markets may be regulated.

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

PubMed

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The US Forest Service Framework for Climate Adaptation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cleaves, D.

2013-12-01

Public lands are changing in response to climate change and related stressors such that resilience-based management plans that integrate climate-smart adaptation are needed. The goal of these plans is to facilitate land managers' consideration of a range of potential futures while simplifying the complex array of choices and assumptions in a rigorous, defensible manner. The foundation for climate response has been built into recent Forest Service policies, guidance, and strategies like the climate change Roadmap and Scorecard; 2012 Planning Rule; Cohesive Wildland Fire Management strategy; and Inventory, Monitoring & Assessment strategy. This has driven the need for information that is relevant, timely, and accessible to support vulnerability assessments and risk management to aid in designing and choosing alternatives and ranking actions. Managers must also consider carbon and greenhouse gas implications as well as understand the nature and level of uncertainties. The major adjustments that need to be made involve: improving risk-based decision making and working with predictive models and information; evaluating underlying assumptions against new realities and possibilities being revealed by climate science; integrating carbon cycle science and a new ethic of carbon stewardship into management practices; and preparing systems for inevitable changes to ameliorate negative effects, capture opportunities, or accept different and perhaps novel ecosystem configurations. We need to avoid waiting for complete science that never arrives and take actions that blend science and experience to boost learning, reduce costs and irreversible losses, and buy lead time.

C2R2: Training Students To Build Coastal Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferraro, C.; Kopp, R. E.; Jordan, R.; Gong, J.; Andrews, C.; Auermuller, L. M.; Herb, J.; McDonnell, J. D.; Bond, S.

2017-12-01

In the United States, about 23 million people live within 6 meters of sea level. In many parts of the country, sea-level rise between 1960 and 2010 has already led to a 2-5-fold increase in the rate of `nuisance' flooding. On top of rising seas, intensifying hurricanes and more frequent extremes of heat, humidity and precipitation pose additional risks to coastal societies, economies and ecosystems. Addressing risks posed by changing climate conditions in coastal areas demands innovative strategies that intersect multiple disciplines including engineering, ecology, communication, climate science, and community planning. To be usable, it also requires engaging coastal stakeholders in the development of research questions, the assessment of implications of research for planning and policy, and the communication of research results. Yet traditional, disciplinary programs are poorly configured to train the workforce needed to assess coastal climate risk and to develop and deploy integrated strategies for increasing coastal climate resilience. Coastal Climate Risk & Resilience (C2R2) is an NSF Research Traineeship (NRT) working to prepare the workforce that will build coastal resilience in the face of climate risks. Through its trainee and certificate programs, C2R2 works with graduate students at Rutgers University from multiple disciplines to better integrate all the elements of coastal systems and to communicate effectively with coastal stakeholders. C2R2 students will acquire the knowledge and practical skills needed to become leading researchers and practitioners tackling the critical challenges of coastal resilience.

Linking Physical Climate Research and Economic Assessments of Mitigation Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Calel, Raphael

2017-04-01

Evaluating climate change policies requires economic assessments which balance the costs and benefits of climate action. A certain class of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) are widely used for this type of analysis; DICE, PAGE and FUND are three of the most influential. In the economics community there has been much discussion and debate about the economic assumptions implemented within these models. Two aspects in particular have gained much attention: i) the costs of damages resulting from climate change - the so-called damage function, and ii) the choice of discount rate applied to future costs and benefits. There has, however, been rather little attention given to the consequences of the choices made in the physical climate models within these IAMS. Here we discuss the practical aspects of the implementation of the physical models in these IAMS, as well as the implications of choices made in these physical science components for economic assessments[1]. We present a simple breakdown of how these IAMS differently represent the climate system as a consequence of differing underlying physical models, different parametric assumptions (for parameters representing, for instance, feedbacks and ocean heat uptake) and different numerical approaches to solving the models. We present the physical and economic consequences of these differences and reflect on how we might better incorporate the latest physical science understanding in economic models of this type. [1] Calel, R. and Stainforth D.A., "On the Physics of Three Integrated Assessment Models", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press.

Development, Implementation, and Assessment of Climate Curricular Materials for Introductory Undergraduates: Lessons Learned from the InTeGrate Project's Climate of Change Module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, B.; Fadem, C. M.; Shellito, L. J.

2014-12-01

Designing climate change curricular materials suitable for wide adoption across institutions and academic disciplines (including those outside of the geosciences) requires collaboration among faculty at different types of institutions and consideration of a variety of student populations, learning styles, and course formats. The Interdisciplinary Teaching of Geoscience for a Sustainable Future (InTeGrate) project, an NSF STEP Center program, provides opportunities for faculty to develop 2-3 week teaching modules to engage students in understanding the intersections between geoscience topics and societal issues. From 2012-2014, a team of 3 faculty from a liberal arts college, comprehensive university, and community college developed, implemented, assessed, and revised a 2-3 week module for introductory undergraduates entitled "Climate of change: interactions and feedbacks between water, air, and ice". The module uses authentic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere data from several regions to illustrate how climate impacts human societies and that the climate system has interacting components complicated by feedbacks, uncertainties, and human behavioral decisions. Students also consider past and present human adaptations to climate fluctuations. The module was piloted in introductory geology, meteorology, and oceanography courses during the 2012-2013 academic year, during which time formative and summative assessments were administered and used to modify the curricular materials. We will provide an overview of the module's content, instructional strategies involved in implementing the module, and methods of formative and summative assessment. We will also report on lessons learned during the development, piloting, revision, and publishing process, the importance of fostering partnerships between faculty from different institution types, and design approaches that promote widespread adoption of climate curricular materials.

Climate Change Science Teaching through Integration of Technology in Instruction and Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sriharan, S.; Ozbay, G.; Robinson, L.; Klimkowski, V.

2015-12-01

This presentation demonstrates the importance of collaborations between the institutions with common focus on offering the academic program on climate change science. Virginia State University (VSU) developed and established the course on climate change and adaptation, AGRI 350 for undergraduates, in cooperation with two HBCUs, Delaware State University (DSU) and Morgan State University (MSU). This program was developed to enhance the science curriculum with funding from the USDA NIFA. The hands-on research opportunities for students were supported by the NSF HBCU UP Supplement Grant at VSU. The technical guidance and lesson plans were available through the courtesy of the AMS and faculty/student team training at the NCAR. In the initial stages, the faculty members participated in faculty development workshops hosted by the AMS and NCAR. This contributed to trained faculty members developing the courses on Climate Change at VSU, DSU, and MSU. To create awareness of global climate change and exposure of students to international programs, seven students from VSU, MSU, and DSU participated in the Climate Change course (ENS 320) at the University of Sunshine Coast (USC), Australia. This international experience included faculty members in using SimCLIM for climate change data into decision-making with regard to potential changes to cropping systems and tree growth. The Climate Change program at VSU, DSU, and MSU is emerging into comprehensive academic program which includes use of case studies and exchange of students' reflections with their peers through discussion board and videoconferencing, hands-on research on water quality monitoring and mapping the study sites, and integration of geospatial technologies and i-Tree. In addition, the students' engagement in intensive research was conducted through hands-on experience with Scanning Electron Microscopy in the Marine Science Department, University of Hawaii at Hilo in summer 2015.

The seasonal response of the Held-Suarez climate model to prescribed ocean temperature anomalies. I - Results of decadal integrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, T. J.; Semtner, A. J., Jr.

1984-01-01

Anomalies in ocean surface temperature have been identified as possible causes of variations in the climate of particular seasons or as a source of interannual climatic variability, and attempts have been made to forecast seasonal climate by using ocean temperatures as predictor variables. However, the seasonal atmospheric response to ocean temperature anomalies has not yet been systematically investigated with nonlinear models. The present investigation is concerned with ten-year integrations involving a model of intermediate complexity, the Held-Suarez climate model. The calculations have been performed to investigate the changes in seasonal climate which result from a fixed anomaly imposed on a seasonally varying, global ocean temperature field. Part I of the paper provides a report on the results of these decadal integrations. Attention is given to model properties, the experimental design, and the anomaly experiments.

Complexity of Tropical Pacific Ecosystem and Biogeochemistry: Diurnal to Decadal, Plankters to Penguins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murtugudde, R. G.; Wang, X.; Valsala, V.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2016-12-01

Tropical Pacific spans nearly 50% of the global tropics allowing to have its own mind in terms of climate variability and physical-biogeochemical interactions. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its flavors get much attention, it is fairly clear by now that any further improvements in ENSO prediction skills and reliability of global warming projections must begin to observe and represent bio-physical interactions in the climate and Earth System models. Coupled climate variability over the tropical Pacific has a global reach with its diurnal to decadal timescales being manifest in ecosystem and biogechemistry. Zonal and meridional contrasts in biogeochemistry across the tropical Pacific is closely related to seasonal variability, ENSO diversity and the PDO. Apparent dominance of ocean dynamic controls on biogeochemistry belies the potential biogeochemical feedbacks on ocean dynamics which may well explain some of the chronic biases in the state-of-the-art climate models. The east Pacific cold-tongue is the most productive open ocean region in the world and home to a unique physical-biogeochmical laboratory, viz., the Galapagos. The Galapagos islands not only control the coupled climate variability via their ability to terminate the equatorial undercurrent but also offer a clear example of a biological loophole in terms of their impact on local upwelling and an expanding penguin habitat in the face of global warming. The complex bio-physical interactions in the cold-tongue and their influence on climate predictions and projections require a holisti thinking on future observing systems. Tropical Pacific offers a natural laboratory for designing a robust and sustained physical-biogeochemical observation system that can effectively bridge climate predictions and projections into a unified framework for subseasonal to multidecadal timescales. Such a system will be a foundation for establishing similar systems over the rest of the World ocean to seemlessly merge climate predictions and projections with the need to constantly monitor climate impacts on marine resources. This talk will focus on the zonal contrasts of the ocean dynamics and biogechemistry across the tropical Pacific to make a case for integrated physical-biogeochemical observations for climate predictions and projections.

Integrating Environmental and Information Systems Management: An Enterprise Architecture Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noran, Ovidiu

Environmental responsibility is fast becoming an important aspect of strategic management as the reality of climate change settles in and relevant regulations are expected to tighten significantly in the near future. Many businesses react to this challenge by implementing environmental reporting and management systems. However, the environmental initiative is often not properly integrated in the overall business strategy and its information system (IS) and as a result the management does not have timely access to (appropriately aggregated) environmental information. This chapter argues for the benefit of integrating the environmental management (EM) project into the ongoing enterprise architecture (EA) initiative present in all successful companies. This is done by demonstrating how a reference architecture framework and a meta-methodology using EA artefacts can be used to co-design the EM system, the organisation and its IS in order to achieve a much needed synergy.

Opportunistic management of estuaries under climate change: A new adaptive decision-making framework and its practical application.

PubMed

Peirson, William; Davey, Erica; Jones, Alan; Hadwen, Wade; Bishop, Keith; Beger, Maria; Capon, Samantha; Fairweather, Peter; Creese, Bob; Smith, Timothy F; Gray, Leigh; Tomlinson, Rodger

2015-11-01

Ongoing coastal development and the prospect of severe climate change impacts present pressing estuary management and governance challenges. Robust approaches must recognise the intertwined social and ecological vulnerabilities of estuaries. Here, a new governance and management framework is proposed that recognises the integrated social-ecological systems of estuaries so as to permit transformative adaptation to climate change within these systems. The framework lists stakeholders and identifies estuarine uses and values. Goals are categorised that are specific to ecosystems, private property, public infrastructure, and human communities. Systematic adaptation management strategies are proposed with conceptual examples and associated governance approaches. Contrasting case studies are used to illustrate the practical application of these ideas. The framework will assist estuary managers worldwide to achieve their goals, minimise maladaptative responses, better identify competing interests, reduce stakeholder conflict and exploit opportunities for appropriate ecosystem restoration and sustainable development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multidisciplinary hydrologic investigations at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, William W.

1990-01-01

Future climatic conditions and tectonic processes have the potential to cause significant changes of the hydrologic system in the southern Great Basin, where a nuclear-waste repository is proposed for construction above the water table at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Geothermal anomalies in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain probably result from the local and regional transport of heat by ground-water flow. Regionally and locally irregular patterns of hydraulic potential, local marsh and pond deposits, and calcite veins in faults and fractures probably are related principally to climatically imposed hydrologic conditions within the geologic and topographic framework. However, tectonic effects on the hydrologic system have also been proposed as the causes of these features, and existing data limitations preclude a full evaluation of these competing hypotheses. A broad program that integrates many disciplines of earth science is required in order to understand the relation of hydrology to past, present and future climates and tectonism.

Nonlinear Adaptive PID Control for Greenhouse Environment Based on RBF Network

PubMed Central

Zeng, Songwei; Hu, Haigen; Xu, Lihong; Li, Guanghui

2012-01-01

This paper presents a hybrid control strategy, combining Radial Basis Function (RBF) network with conventional proportional, integral, and derivative (PID) controllers, for the greenhouse climate control. A model of nonlinear conservation laws of enthalpy and matter between numerous system variables affecting the greenhouse climate is formulated. RBF network is used to tune and identify all PID gain parameters online and adaptively. The presented Neuro-PID control scheme is validated through simulations of set-point tracking and disturbance rejection. We compare the proposed adaptive online tuning method with the offline tuning scheme that employs Genetic Algorithm (GA) to search the optimal gain parameters. The results show that the proposed strategy has good adaptability, strong robustness and real-time performance while achieving satisfactory control performance for the complex and nonlinear greenhouse climate control system, and it may provide a valuable reference to formulate environmental control strategies for actual application in greenhouse production. PMID:22778587

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure— A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

EPA Science Inventory

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change enco...

ICLUS Tools and Datasets (Version 1.3 & 1.3.1)

EPA Science Inventory

As a part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project, this Geographic Information System (GIS) tool can be used to generate scenarios of housing-density changes and calculate impervious surface cover for the conterminous United States. The ICLUS User’s Guid...

Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2011-12-01

In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

2015-01-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

2013-03-01

We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

Climate warming, marine protected areas and the ocean-scale integrity of coral reef ecosystems.

PubMed

Graham, Nicholas A J; McClanahan, Tim R; MacNeil, M Aaron; Wilson, Shaun K; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Jennings, Simon; Chabanet, Pascale; Clark, Susan; Spalding, Mark D; Letourneur, Yves; Bigot, Lionel; Galzin, René; Ohman, Marcus C; Garpe, Kajsa C; Edwards, Alasdair J; Sheppard, Charles R C

2008-08-27

Coral reefs have emerged as one of the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate variation and change. While the contribution of a warming climate to the loss of live coral cover has been well documented across large spatial and temporal scales, the associated effects on fish have not. Here, we respond to recent and repeated calls to assess the importance of local management in conserving coral reefs in the context of global climate change. Such information is important, as coral reef fish assemblages are the most species dense vertebrate communities on earth, contributing critical ecosystem functions and providing crucial ecosystem services to human societies in tropical countries. Our assessment of the impacts of the 1998 mass bleaching event on coral cover, reef structural complexity, and reef associated fishes spans 7 countries, 66 sites and 26 degrees of latitude in the Indian Ocean. Using Bayesian meta-analysis we show that changes in the size structure, diversity and trophic composition of the reef fish community have followed coral declines. Although the ocean scale integrity of these coral reef ecosystems has been lost, it is positive to see the effects are spatially variable at multiple scales, with impacts and vulnerability affected by geography but not management regime. Existing no-take marine protected areas still support high biomass of fish, however they had no positive affect on the ecosystem response to large-scale disturbance. This suggests a need for future conservation and management efforts to identify and protect regional refugia, which should be integrated into existing management frameworks and combined with policies to improve system-wide resilience to climate variation and change.