Use of mechanistic simulations as a quantitative risk-ranking tool within the quality by design framework.

PubMed

Stocker, Elena; Toschkoff, Gregor; Sacher, Stephan; Khinast, Johannes G

2014-11-20

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the use of computer simulations for generating quantitative knowledge as a basis for risk ranking and mechanistic process understanding, as required by ICH Q9 on quality risk management systems. In this specific publication, the main focus is the demonstration of a risk assessment workflow, including a computer simulation for the generation of mechanistic understanding of active tablet coating in a pan coater. Process parameter screening studies are statistically planned under consideration of impacts on a potentially critical quality attribute, i.e., coating mass uniformity. Based on computer simulation data the process failure mode and effects analysis of the risk factors is performed. This results in a quantitative criticality assessment of process parameters and the risk priority evaluation of failure modes. The factor for a quantitative reassessment of the criticality and risk priority is the coefficient of variation, which represents the coating mass uniformity. The major conclusion drawn from this work is a successful demonstration of the integration of computer simulation in the risk management workflow leading to an objective and quantitative risk assessment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

Benchmarking on the evaluation of major accident-related risk assessment.

PubMed

Fabbri, Luciano; Contini, Sergio

2009-03-15

This paper summarises the main results of a European project BEQUAR (Benchmarking Exercise in Quantitative Area Risk Assessment in Central and Eastern European Countries). This project is among the first attempts to explore how independent evaluations of the same risk study associated with a certain chemical establishment could differ from each other and the consequent effects on the resulting area risk estimate. The exercise specifically aimed at exploring the manner and degree to which independent experts may disagree on the interpretation of quantitative risk assessments for the same entity. The project first compared the results of a number of independent expert evaluations of a quantitative risk assessment study for the same reference chemical establishment. This effort was then followed by a study of the impact of the different interpretations on the estimate of the overall risk on the area concerned. In order to improve the inter-comparability of the results, this exercise was conducted using a single tool for area risk assessment based on the ARIPAR methodology. The results of this study are expected to contribute to an improved understanding of the inspection criteria and practices used by the different national authorities responsible for the implementation of the Seveso II Directive in their countries. The activity was funded under the Enlargement and Integration Action of the Joint Research Centre (JRC), that aims at providing scientific and technological support for promoting integration of the New Member States and assisting the Candidate Countries on their way towards accession to the European Union.

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 195 - Guidance for Implementation of an Integrity Management Program

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... get this information from topographical maps such as U.S. Geological Survey quadrangle maps. (2... risk.)—Risk Value=3 Close interval survey: (yes/no)—no—Risk Value =5 Internal Inspection tool used..., including a summary of performance improvements, both qualitative and quantitative, to an operator's...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 195 - Guidance for Implementation of an Integrity Management Program

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... get this information from topographical maps such as U.S. Geological Survey quadrangle maps. (2... risk.)—Risk Value=3 Close interval survey: (yes/no)—no—Risk Value =5 Internal Inspection tool used..., including a summary of performance improvements, both qualitative and quantitative, to an operator's...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 195 - Guidance for Implementation of an Integrity Management Program

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... get this information from topographical maps such as U.S. Geological Survey quadrangle maps. (2... risk.)—Risk Value=3 Close interval survey: (yes/no)—no—Risk Value =5 Internal Inspection tool used..., including a summary of performance improvements, both qualitative and quantitative, to an operator's...

49 CFR Appendix C to Part 195 - Guidance for Implementation of an Integrity Management Program

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... get this information from topographical maps such as U.S. Geological Survey quadrangle maps. (2... risk.)—Risk Value=3 Close interval survey: (yes/no)—no—Risk Value =5 Internal Inspection tool used..., including a summary of performance improvements, both qualitative and quantitative, to an operator's...

Reducing the Risk of Human Space Missions with INTEGRITY

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.; Dillon-Merill, Robin L.; Tri, Terry O.; Henninger, Donald L.

2003-01-01

The INTEGRITY Program will design and operate a test bed facility to help prepare for future beyond-LEO missions. The purpose of INTEGRITY is to enable future missions by developing, testing, and demonstrating advanced human space systems. INTEGRITY will also implement and validate advanced management techniques including risk analysis and mitigation. One important way INTEGRITY will help enable future missions is by reducing their risk. A risk analysis of human space missions is important in defining the steps that INTEGRITY should take to mitigate risk. This paper describes how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of human space missions will help support the planning and development of INTEGRITY to maximize its benefits to future missions. PRA is a systematic methodology to decompose the system into subsystems and components, to quantify the failure risk as a function of the design elements and their corresponding probability of failure. PRA provides a quantitative estimate of the probability of failure of the system, including an assessment and display of the degree of uncertainty surrounding the probability. PRA provides a basis for understanding the impacts of decisions that affect safety, reliability, performance, and cost. Risks with both high probability and high impact are identified as top priority. The PRA of human missions beyond Earth orbit will help indicate how the risk of future human space missions can be reduced by integrating and testing systems in INTEGRITY.

Using an Integrated, Multi-disciplinary Framework to Support Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) provides the infrastructure to link disparate models and databases seamlessly, giving an assessor the ability to construct an appropriate conceptual site model from a host of modeling choices, so a numbe...

Remote Imaging of Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) Entry Heating Risk Reduction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuster, David M.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Schwartz, Richard J.

2016-01-01

A Measure of Performance (MOP) identified with an Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) Multi- Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Flight Test Objective (FTO) (OFT1.091) specified an observation during reentry though external ground-based or airborne assets with thermal detection capabilities. The objective of this FTO was to be met with onboard Developmental Flight Instrumentation (DFI), but the MOP for external observation was intended to provide complementary quantitative data and serve as a risk reduction in the event of anomalous DFI behavior (or failure). Mr. Gavin Mendeck, the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) Phase Engineer for the MPCV Program (Vehicle Integration Office/Systems & Mission Integration) requested a risk-reduction assessment from the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to determine whether quantitative imagery could be obtained from remote aerial assets to support the external observation MOP. If so, then a viable path forward was to be determined, risks identified, and an observation pursued. If not, then the MOP for external observation was to be eliminated.

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

PubMed Central

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-01-01

Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-11-01

Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit-risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit-risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit-risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit-risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit-risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Benefit-risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

Viewpoint on ISA TR84.0.02--simplified methods and fault tree analysis.

PubMed

Summers, A E

2000-01-01

ANSI/ISA-S84.01-1996 and IEC 61508 require the establishment of a safety integrity level for any safety instrumented system or safety related system used to mitigate risk. Each stage of design, operation, maintenance, and testing is judged against this safety integrity level. Quantitative techniques can be used to verify whether the safety integrity level is met. ISA-dTR84.0.02 is a technical report under development by ISA, which discusses how to apply quantitative analysis techniques to safety instrumented systems. This paper discusses two of those techniques: (1) Simplified equations and (2) Fault tree analysis.

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

2011-01-01

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

Creating Context for the Use of DNA Adduct Data in Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Assessments of human cancer risk require the integration of diverse types of data. Advancing technologies for quantitative measurements at the sub-cellular domain raise the critical issue of interpretation and use of DNA adduct data in context with current understanding of cancer...

Quantitative risk assessment integrated with process simulator for a new technology of methanol production plant using recycled CO₂.

PubMed

Di Domenico, Julia; Vaz, Carlos André; de Souza, Maurício Bezerra

2014-06-15

The use of process simulators can contribute with quantitative risk assessment (QRA) by minimizing expert time and large volume of data, being mandatory in the case of a future plant. This work illustrates the advantages of this association by integrating UNISIM DESIGN simulation and QRA to investigate the acceptability of a new technology of a Methanol Production Plant in a region. The simulated process was based on the hydrogenation of chemically sequestered carbon dioxide, demanding stringent operational conditions (high pressures and temperatures) and involving the production of hazardous materials. The estimation of the consequences was performed using the PHAST software, version 6.51. QRA results were expressed in terms of individual and social risks. Compared to existing tolerance levels, the risks were considered tolerable in nominal conditions of operation of the plant. The use of the simulator in association with the QRA also allowed testing the risk in new operating conditions in order to delimit safe regions for the plant. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated Research on the Development of Global Climate Risk Management Strategies - Framework and Initial Results of the Research Project ICA-RUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emori, Seita; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Oki, Taikan; Mori, Shunsuke; Fujigaki, Yuko

2013-04-01

With the aim of proposing strategies of global climate risk management, we have launched a five-year research project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). In this project with the phrase "risk management" in its title, we aspire for a comprehensive assessment of climate change risks, explicit consideration of uncertainties, utilization of best available information, and consideration of every possible conditions and options. We also regard the problem as one of decision-making at the human level, which involves social value judgments and adapts to future changes in circumstances. The ICA-RUS project consists of the following five themes: 1) Synthesis of global climate risk management strategies, 2) Optimization of land, water and ecosystem uses for climate risk management, 3) Identification and analysis of critical climate risks, 4) Evaluation of climate risk management options under technological, social and economic uncertainties and 5) Interactions between scientific and social rationalities in climate risk management (see also: http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/en/). For the integration of quantitative knowledge of climate change risks and responses, we apply a tool named AIM/Impact [Policy], which consists of an energy-economic model, a simplified climate model and impact projection modules. At the same time, in order to make use of qualitative knowledge as well, we hold monthly project meetings for the discussion of risk management strategies and publish annual reports based on the quantitative and qualitative information. To enhance the comprehensiveness of the analyses, we maintain an inventory of risks and risk management options. The inventory is revised iteratively through interactive meetings with stakeholders such as policymakers, government officials and industrial representatives.

Occupations at Risk and Organizational Well-Being: An Empirical Test of a Job Insecurity Integrated Model

PubMed Central

Chirumbolo, Antonio; Urbini, Flavio; Callea, Antonino; Lo Presti, Alessandro; Talamo, Alessandra

2017-01-01

One of the more visible effects of the societal changes is the increased feelings of uncertainty in the workforce. In fact, job insecurity represents a crucial occupational risk factor and a major job stressor that has negative consequences on both organizational well-being and individual health. Many studies have focused on the consequences about the fear and the perception of losing the job as a whole (called quantitative job insecurity), while more recently research has begun to examine more extensively the worries and the perceptions of losing valued job features (called qualitative job insecurity). The vast majority of the studies, however, have investigated the effects of quantitative and qualitative job insecurity separately. In this paper, we proposed the Job Insecurity Integrated Model aimed to examine the effects of quantitative job insecurity and qualitative job insecurity on their short-term and long-term outcomes. This model was empirically tested in two independent studies, hypothesizing that qualitative job insecurity mediated the effects of quantitative job insecurity on different outcomes, such as work engagement and organizational identification (Study 1), and job satisfaction, commitment, psychological stress and turnover intention (Study 2). Study 1 was conducted on 329 employees in private firms, while Study 2 on 278 employees in both public sector and private firms. Results robustly showed that qualitative job insecurity totally mediated the effects of quantitative on all the considered outcomes. By showing that the effects of quantitative job insecurity on its outcomes passed through qualitative job insecurity, the Job Insecurity Integrated Model contributes to clarifying previous findings in job insecurity research and puts forward a framework that could profitably produce new investigations with important theoretical and practical implications. PMID:29250013

Occupations at Risk and Organizational Well-Being: An Empirical Test of a Job Insecurity Integrated Model.

PubMed

Chirumbolo, Antonio; Urbini, Flavio; Callea, Antonino; Lo Presti, Alessandro; Talamo, Alessandra

2017-01-01

One of the more visible effects of the societal changes is the increased feelings of uncertainty in the workforce. In fact, job insecurity represents a crucial occupational risk factor and a major job stressor that has negative consequences on both organizational well-being and individual health. Many studies have focused on the consequences about the fear and the perception of losing the job as a whole (called quantitative job insecurity), while more recently research has begun to examine more extensively the worries and the perceptions of losing valued job features (called qualitative job insecurity). The vast majority of the studies, however, have investigated the effects of quantitative and qualitative job insecurity separately. In this paper, we proposed the Job Insecurity Integrated Model aimed to examine the effects of quantitative job insecurity and qualitative job insecurity on their short-term and long-term outcomes. This model was empirically tested in two independent studies, hypothesizing that qualitative job insecurity mediated the effects of quantitative job insecurity on different outcomes, such as work engagement and organizational identification (Study 1), and job satisfaction, commitment, psychological stress and turnover intention (Study 2). Study 1 was conducted on 329 employees in private firms, while Study 2 on 278 employees in both public sector and private firms. Results robustly showed that qualitative job insecurity totally mediated the effects of quantitative on all the considered outcomes. By showing that the effects of quantitative job insecurity on its outcomes passed through qualitative job insecurity, the Job Insecurity Integrated Model contributes to clarifying previous findings in job insecurity research and puts forward a framework that could profitably produce new investigations with important theoretical and practical implications.

US EPA - A*Star Partnership - Accelerating the Acceptance of Next-Generation Sciences and Their Application to Regulatory Risk Assessment (A*Star Symposium, Singapore)

EPA Science Inventory

The path for incorporating new alternative methods and technologies into quantitative chemical risk assessment poses a diverse set of scientific challenges. Some of these challenges include development of relevant and predictive test systems and computational models to integrate...

The integrated effect of moderate exercise on coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Mathews, Marc J; Mathews, Edward H; Mathews, George E

Moderate exercise is associated with a lower risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). A suitable integrated model of the CHD pathogenetic pathways relevant to moderate exercise may help to elucidate this association. Such a model is currently not available in the literature. An integrated model of CHD was developed and used to investigate pathogenetic pathways of importance between exercise and CHD. Using biomarker relative-risk data, the pathogenetic effects are representable as measurable effects based on changes in biomarkers. The integrated model provides insight into higherorder interactions underlying the associations between CHD and moderate exercise. A novel 'connection graph' was developed, which simplifies these interactions. It quantitatively illustrates the relationship between moderate exercise and various serological biomarkers of CHD. The connection graph of moderate exercise elucidates all the possible integrated actions through which risk reduction may occur. An integrated model of CHD provides a summary of the effects of moderate exercise on CHD. It also shows the importance of each CHD pathway that moderate exercise influences. The CHD risk-reducing effects of exercise appear to be primarily driven by decreased inflammation and altered metabolism.

Emerging Technologies for Environmental Remediation: Integrating Data and Judgment.

PubMed

Bates, Matthew E; Grieger, Khara D; Trump, Benjamin D; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Plourde, Kenton J; Linkov, Igor

2016-01-05

Emerging technologies present significant challenges to researchers, decision-makers, industry professionals, and other stakeholder groups due to the lack of quantitative risk, benefit, and cost data associated with their use. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can support early decisions for emerging technologies when data is too sparse or uncertain for traditional risk assessment. It does this by integrating expert judgment with available quantitative and qualitative inputs across multiple criteria to provide relative technology scores. Here, an MCDA framework provides preliminary insights on the suitability of emerging technologies for environmental remediation by comparing nanotechnology and synthetic biology to conventional remediation methods. Subject matter experts provided judgments regarding the importance of criteria used in the evaluations and scored the technologies with respect to those criteria. The results indicate that synthetic biology may be preferred over nanotechnology and conventional methods for high expected benefits and low deployment costs but that conventional technology may be preferred over emerging technologies for reduced risks and development costs. In the absence of field data regarding the risks, benefits, and costs of emerging technologies, structuring evidence-based expert judgment through a weighted hierarchy of topical questions may be helpful to inform preliminary risk governance and guide emerging technology development and policy.

Development of Improved Caprock Integrity and Risk Assessment Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruno, Michael

GeoMechanics Technologies has completed a geomechanical caprock integrity analysis and risk assessment study funded through the US Department of Energy. The project included: a detailed review of historical caprock integrity problems experienced in the natural gas storage industry; a theoretical description and documentation of caprock integrity issues; advanced coupled transport flow modelling and geomechanical simulation of three large-scale potential geologic sequestration sites to estimate geomechanical effects from CO₂ injection; development of a quantitative risk and decision analysis tool to assess caprock integrity risks; and, ultimately the development of recommendations and guidelines for caprock characterization and CO₂ injection operating practices. Historicalmore » data from gas storage operations and CO₂ sequestration projects suggest that leakage and containment incident risks are on the order of 10-1 to 10-2, which is higher risk than some previous studies have suggested for CO₂. Geomechanical analysis, as described herein, can be applied to quantify risks and to provide operating guidelines to reduce risks. The risk assessment tool developed for this project has been applied to five areas: The Wilmington Graben offshore Southern California, Kevin Dome in Montana, the Louden Field in Illinois, the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration operation in the North Sea, and the In Salah CO₂ sequestration operation in North Africa. Of these five, the Wilmington Graben area represents the highest relative risk while the Kevin Dome area represents the lowest relative risk.« less

Independent Assessment of Instrumentation for ISS On-Orbit NDE. Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madaras, Eric I

2013-01-01

International Space Station (ISS) Structural and Mechanical Systems Manager, requested that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) provide a quantitative assessment of commercially available nondestructive evaluation (NDE) instruments for potential application to the ISS. This work supports risk mitigation as outlined in the ISS Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA) Watch Item #4669, which addresses the requirement for structural integrity after an ISS pressure wall leak in the event of a penetration due to micrometeoroid or debris (MMOD) impact. This document contains the outcome of the NESC assessment.

Independent Assessment of Instrumentation for ISS On-Orbit NDE. Volume 2; Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madaras, Eric I.

2013-01-01

International Space Station (ISS) Structural and Mechanical Systems Manager, requested that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) provide a quantitative assessment of commercially available nondestructive evaluation (NDE) instruments for potential application to the ISS. This work supports risk mitigation as outlined in the ISS Integrated Risk Management Application (IRMA) Watch Item #4669, which addresses the requirement for structural integrity after an ISS pressure wall leak in the event of a penetration due to micrometeoroid or debris (MMOD) impact. This document contains the appendices the final report.

Risk and responsibility: a complex and evolving relationship.

PubMed

Kermisch, Céline

2012-03-01

This paper analyses the nature of the relationship between risk and responsibility. Since neither the concept of risk nor the concept of responsibility has an unequivocal definition, it is obvious that there is no single interpretation of their relationship. After introducing the different meanings of responsibility used in this paper, we analyse four conceptions of risk. This allows us to make their link with responsibility explicit and to determine if a shift in the connection between risk and responsibility can be outlined. (1) In the engineer's paradigm, the quantitative conception of risk does not include any concept of responsibility. Their relationship is indirect, the locus of responsibility being risk management. (2) In Mary Douglas' cultural theory, risks are constructed through the responsibilities they engage. (3) Rayner and (4) Wolff go further by integrating forms of responsibility in the definition of risk itself. Analysis of these four frameworks shows that the concepts of risk and responsibility are increasingly intertwined. This tendency is reinforced by increasing public awareness and a call for the integration of a moral dimension in risk management. Therefore, we suggest that a form of virtue-responsibility should also be integrated in the concept of risk. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

PubMed

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

2005-08-31

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

Using an integrated approach to the assessment of the psychosocial work environment: the case of a major hospital in northern Italy.

PubMed

Lanfranchi, Fiorella; Alaimo, Sara; Conway, P M

2014-01-01

In 2010, Italian regulatory guidelines have been issued consisting of a stepwise procedure for the assessment and management of work-related stress. However, research that empirically examines whether this procedure proves effective in accurately identifying critical psychosocial factors and informing risk management is scarce. To examine the differential sensitivity of two approaches to risk assessment, the first based on objective instruments only, the second consisting of an integrated approach combining different methods and theoretical perspectives. We examined a sample of 306 healthcare employees in a large-size hospital in northern Italy, using a series of tools, both quantitative (an observational checklist and the HSE-IT and MOHQ questionnaires) and qualitative (Focus Groups). Through instrument-specific reference values, we then compared risk profiles between different homogeneous groups within the institution. The psychosocial work environment resulted to be far more positive when adopting the first compared to the second approach to risk assessment. The latter approach was also more sensitive in detecting between-groups differences in risk profiles. Furthermore, the Focus Groups returned a more context-specific picture of the psychosocial work environment. Finally, going beyond the emphasis on negative working conditions inherent in the other quantitative instruments, the MOHQ allowed for also identifying health-promoting factors in need for improvement. Although more research is needed to confirm our findings, the present study suggests that using an integrated approach to assess the psychosocial work environment may be the most effective way to accurately identify risk factors and support the management process.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia (External Review Draft ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of ammonia that will appear in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for ammonia. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

IRIS Toxicological Review of n-Butanol (External Review Draft ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of n-butanol that will appear in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for n-butanol. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Integrating quantitative PCR and Bayesian statistics in quantifying human adenoviruses in small volumes of source water.

PubMed

Wu, Jianyong; Gronewold, Andrew D; Rodriguez, Roberto A; Stewart, Jill R; Sobsey, Mark D

2014-02-01

Rapid quantification of viral pathogens in drinking and recreational water can help reduce waterborne disease risks. For this purpose, samples in small volume (e.g. 1L) are favored because of the convenience of collection, transportation and processing. However, the results of viral analysis are often subject to uncertainty. To overcome this limitation, we propose an approach that integrates Bayesian statistics, efficient concentration methods, and quantitative PCR (qPCR) to quantify viral pathogens in water. Using this approach, we quantified human adenoviruses (HAdVs) in eighteen samples of source water collected from six drinking water treatment plants. HAdVs were found in seven samples. In the other eleven samples, HAdVs were not detected by qPCR, but might have existed based on Bayesian inference. Our integrated approach that quantifies uncertainty provides a better understanding than conventional assessments of potential risks to public health, particularly in cases when pathogens may present a threat but cannot be detected by traditional methods. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Infectious Disease Transmission Modeling of Waterborne Enteric Pathogens.

PubMed

Brouwer, Andrew F; Masters, Nina B; Eisenberg, Joseph N S

2018-04-20

Waterborne enteric pathogens remain a global health threat. Increasingly, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and infectious disease transmission modeling (IDTM) are used to assess waterborne pathogen risks and evaluate mitigation. These modeling efforts, however, have largely been conducted independently for different purposes and in different settings. In this review, we examine the settings where each modeling strategy is employed. QMRA research has focused on food contamination and recreational water in high-income countries (HICs) and drinking water and wastewater in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IDTM research has focused on large outbreaks (predominately LMICs) and vaccine-preventable diseases (LMICs and HICs). Human ecology determines the niches that pathogens exploit, leading researchers to focus on different risk assessment research strategies in different settings. To enhance risk modeling, QMRA and IDTM approaches should be integrated to include dynamics of pathogens in the environment and pathogen transmission through populations.

Uncertainty analysis in vulnerability estimations for elements at risk- a review of concepts and some examples on landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.

2012-04-01

Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.

Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

PubMed

Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

2015-04-01

A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran (THF) (External ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is conducting a peer review and public comment of the scientific basis supporting the human health hazard and dose-response assessment of tetrahydrofuran (THF) that when finalized will appear on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) database. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for tetrahydrofuran. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

PubMed

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-26

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling considering methylated trivalent arsenicals

EPA Science Inventory

PBPK modeling provides a quantitative biologically-based framework to integrate diverse types of information for application to risk analysis. For example, genetic polymorphisms in arsenic metabolizing enzymes (AS3MT) can lead to differences in target tissue dosimetry for key tri...

Bridging the Engineering and Medicine Gap

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walton, M.; Antonsen, E.

2018-01-01

A primary challenge NASA faces is communication between the disparate entities of engineers and human system experts in life sciences. Clear communication is critical for exploration mission success from the perspective of both risk analysis and data handling. The engineering community uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models to inform their own risk analysis and has extensive experience managing mission data, but does not always fully consider human systems integration (HSI). The medical community, as a part of HSI, has been working 1) to develop a suite of tools to express medical risk in quantitative terms that are relatable to the engineering approaches commonly in use, and 2) to manage and integrate HSI data with engineering data. This talk will review the development of the Integrated Medical Model as an early attempt to bridge the communication gap between the medical and engineering communities in the language of PRA. This will also address data communication between the two entities in the context of data management considerations of the Medical Data Architecture. Lessons learned from these processes will help identify important elements to consider in future communication and integration of these two groups.

Risk Management for the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sebastian, J.; Brezovic, Philip

2002-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS Risk Management Office strategy to proactively and systematically manages risks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated risk management process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous risk management methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.

Non-animal approaches for toxicokinetics in risk evaluations of food chemicals.

PubMed

Punt, Ans; Peijnenburg, Ad A C M; Hoogenboom, Ron L A P; Bouwmeester, Hans

2017-01-01

The objective of the present work was to review the availability and predictive value of non-animal toxicokinetic approaches and to evaluate their current use in European risk evaluations of food contaminants, additives and food contact materials, as well as pesticides and medicines. Results revealed little use of quantitative animal or human kinetic data in risk evaluations of food chemicals, compared with pesticides and medicines. Risk evaluations of medicines provided sufficient in vivo kinetic data from different species to evaluate the predictive value of animal kinetic data for humans. These data showed a relatively poor correlation between the in vivo bioavailability in rats and dogs versus that in humans. In contrast, in vitro (human) kinetic data have been demonstrated to provide adequate predictions of the fate of compounds in humans, using appropriate in vitro-in vivo scalers and by integration of in vitro kinetic data with in silico kinetic modelling. Even though in vitro kinetic data were found to be occasionally included within risk evaluations of food chemicals, particularly results from Caco-2 absorption experiments and in vitro data on gut-microbial conversions, only minor use of in vitro methods for metabolism and quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation methods was identified. Yet, such quantitative predictions are essential in the development of alternatives to animal testing as well as to increase human relevance of toxicological risk evaluations. Future research should aim at further improving and validating quantitative alternative methods for kinetics, thereby increasing regulatory acceptance of non-animal kinetic data.

Decreased pain sensitivity due to trimethylbenzene exposure: case study on quantitative approaches for hazard identification

EPA Science Inventory

Traditionally, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification, often using the Hill criteria and weight of evidence determinations to integrate data from multiple studies. Recently, the National Research Council has recommended the ...

HOW CAN BIOLOGICALLY-BASED MODELING OF ARSENIC KINETICS AND DYNAMICS INFORM THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS?

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative biologically-based models describing key events in the continuum from arsenic exposure to the development of adverse health effects provide a framework to integrate information obtained across diverse research areas. For example, genetic polymorphisms in arsenic met...

The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

PubMed

Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

2011-08-01

The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

Development of the Methodology Needed to Quantify Risks to Groundwater at CO2 Storage Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C. F.; Birkholzer, J. T.; Carroll, S.; Hakala, A.; Keating, E. H.; Lopano, C. L.; Newell, D. L.; Spycher, N.

2011-12-01

The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) is an effort that harnesses capabilities across five U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories into a mission-focused platform to develop a defensible, science-based quantitative methodology for determining risk profiles at CO2 storage sites. NRAP is conducting risk and uncertainty analysis in the areas of reservoir performance, natural leakage pathways, wellbore integrity, groundwater protection, monitoring, and systems level modeling. The mission of NRAP is "to provide the scientific underpinning for risk assessment with respect to the long-term storage of CO2, including assessment of residual risk associated with a site post-closure." Additionally, NRAP will develop a strategic, risk-based monitoring protocol, such that monitoring at all stages of a project effectively minimizes uncertainty in the predicted behavior of the site, thereby increasing confidence in storage integrity. NRAP's research focus in the area of groundwater protection is divided into three main tasks: 1) development of quantitative risk profiles for potential groundwater impacts; 2) filling key science gaps in developing those risk profiles; and 3) field-based confirmation. Within these three tasks, researchers are engaged in collaborative studies to determine metrics to identify system perturbation and their associated risk factors. Reservoir simulations are being performed to understand/predict consequences of hypothetical leakage scenarios, from which reduced order models are being developed to feed risk profile development. Both laboratory-based experiments and reactive transport modeling studies provide estimates of geochemical impacts over a broad range of leakage scenarios. This presentation will provide an overview of the research objectives within NRAP's groundwater protection focus area, as well as select accomplishments achieved to date.

How Can Biologically-Based Modeling of Arsenic Kinetics and Dynamics Inform the Risk Assessment Process? -- ETD

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative biologically-based models describing key events in the continuum from arsenic exposure to the development of adverse health effects provide a framework to integrate information obtained across diverse research areas. For example, genetic polymorphisms in arsenic me...

Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

2016-11-01

Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

A novel evaluation method for building construction project based on integrated information entropy with reliability theory.

PubMed

Bai, Xiao-ping; Zhang, Xi-wei

2013-01-01

Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects.

Improving the Linkages between Air Pollution Epidemiology and Quantitative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Bell, Michelle L.; Walker, Katy; Hubbell, Bryan

2011-01-01

Background: Air pollution epidemiology plays an integral role in both identifying the hazards of air pollution as well as supplying the risk coefficients that are used in quantitative risk assessments. Evidence from both epidemiology and risk assessments has historically supported critical environmental policy decisions. The extent to which risk assessors can properly specify a quantitative risk assessment and characterize key sources of uncertainty depends in part on the availability, and clarity, of data and assumptions in the epidemiological studies. Objectives: We discuss the interests shared by air pollution epidemiology and risk assessment communities in ensuring that the findings of epidemiological studies are appropriately characterized and applied correctly in risk assessments. We highlight the key input parameters for risk assessments and consider how modest changes in the characterization of these data might enable more accurate risk assessments that better represent the findings of epidemiological studies. Discussion: We argue that more complete information regarding the methodological choices and input data used in epidemiological studies would support more accurate risk assessments—to the benefit of both disciplines. In particular, we suggest including additional details regarding air quality, demographic, and health data, as well as certain types of data-rich graphics. Conclusions: Relatively modest changes to the data reported in epidemiological studies will improve the quality of risk assessments and help prevent the misinterpretation and mischaracterization of the results of epidemiological studies. Such changes may also benefit epidemiologists undertaking meta-analyses. We suggest workshops as a way to improve the dialogue between the two communities. PMID:21816702

Integrating watershed- and farm-scale modeling framework for targeting critical source areas while maintaining farm economic viability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantitative risk assessments of pollution and data related to the effectiveness of mitigating best management practices (BMPs) are important aspects of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution control efforts, particularly those driven by specific water quality objectives and by measurable improvement goals...

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

PubMed Central

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-01-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic. PMID:27782171

Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

PubMed Central

Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

2016-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

Using In Vitro High-Throughput Screening Data for Predicting Benzo[k]Fluoranthene Human Health Hazards.

PubMed

Burgoon, Lyle D; Druwe, Ingrid L; Painter, Kyle; Yost, Erin E

2017-02-01

Today there are more than 80,000 chemicals in commerce and the environment. The potential human health risks are unknown for the vast majority of these chemicals as they lack human health risk assessments, toxicity reference values, and risk screening values. We aim to use computational toxicology and quantitative high-throughput screening (qHTS) technologies to fill these data gaps, and begin to prioritize these chemicals for additional assessment. In this pilot, we demonstrate how we were able to identify that benzo[k]fluoranthene may induce DNA damage and steatosis using qHTS data and two separate adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). We also demonstrate how bootstrap natural spline-based meta-regression can be used to integrate data across multiple assay replicates to generate a concentration-response curve. We used this analysis to calculate an in vitro point of departure of 0.751 μM and risk-specific in vitro concentrations of 0.29 μM and 0.28 μM for 1:1,000 and 1:10,000 risk, respectively, for DNA damage. Based on the available evidence, and considering that only a single HSD17B4 assay is available, we have low overall confidence in the steatosis hazard identification. This case study suggests that coupling qHTS assays with AOPs and ontologies will facilitate hazard identification. Combining this with quantitative evidence integration methods, such as bootstrap meta-regression, may allow risk assessors to identify points of departure and risk-specific internal/in vitro concentrations. These results are sufficient to prioritize the chemicals; however, in the longer term we will need to estimate external doses for risk screening purposes, such as through margin of exposure methods. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Prioritizing Risks and Uncertainties from Intentional Release of Selected Category A Pathogens

PubMed Central

Hong, Tao; Gurian, Patrick L.; Huang, Yin; Haas, Charles N.

2012-01-01

This paper synthesizes available information on five Category A pathogens (Bacillus anthracis, Yersinia pestis, Francisella tularensis, Variola major and Lassa) to develop quantitative guidelines for how environmental pathogen concentrations may be related to human health risk in an indoor environment. An integrated model of environmental transport and human health exposure to biological pathogens is constructed which 1) includes the effects of environmental attenuation, 2) considers fomite contact exposure as well as inhalational exposure, and 3) includes an uncertainty analysis to identify key input uncertainties, which may inform future research directions. The findings provide a framework for developing the many different environmental standards that are needed for making risk-informed response decisions, such as when prophylactic antibiotics should be distributed, and whether or not a contaminated area should be cleaned up. The approach is based on the assumption of uniform mixing in environmental compartments and is thus applicable to areas sufficiently removed in time and space from the initial release that mixing has produced relatively uniform concentrations. Results indicate that when pathogens are released into the air, risk from inhalation is the main component of the overall risk, while risk from ingestion (dermal contact for B. anthracis) is the main component of the overall risk when pathogens are present on surfaces. Concentrations sampled from untracked floor, walls and the filter of heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system are proposed as indicators of previous exposure risk, while samples taken from touched surfaces are proposed as indicators of future risk if the building is reoccupied. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis is conducted and input-output correlations used to identify important parameter uncertainties. An approach is proposed for integrating these quantitative assessments of parameter uncertainty with broader, qualitative considerations to identify future research priorities. PMID:22412915

Electric vehicle (EV) storage supply chain risk and the energy market: A micro and macroeconomic risk management approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Susanna D.

As a cost effective storage technology for renewable energy sources, Electric Vehicles can be integrated into energy grids. Integration must be optimized to ascertain that renewable energy is available through storage when demand exists so that cost of electricity is minimized. Optimization models can address economic risks associated with the EV supply chain- particularly the volatility in availability and cost of critical materials used in the manufacturing of EV motors and batteries. Supply chain risk can reflect itself in a shortage of storage, which can increase the price of electricity. We propose a micro-and macroeconomic framework for managing supply chain risk through utilization of a cost optimization model in combination with risk management strategies at the microeconomic and macroeconomic level. The study demonstrates how risk from the EVs vehicle critical material supply chain affects manufacturers, smart grid performance, and energy markets qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results illustrate how risk in the EV supply chain affects EV availability and the cost of ancillary services, and how EV critical material supply chain risk can be mitigated through managerial strategies and policy.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia Noncancer Inhalation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA has finalized the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment of Ammonia (Noncancer Inhalation). This assessment addresses the potential noncancer human health effects from long-term inhalation exposure to ammonia. Now final, this assessment will update the current toxicological information on ammonia posted in 1991. EPA’s program and regional offices may use this assessment to inform decisions to protect human health. EPA completed the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for ammonia. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Investigating Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Integrated, Multimedia Environmental Models: Tools for FRAMES-3MRA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Babendreier, Justin E.; Castleton, Karl J.

2005-08-01

Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a comparative approach using several techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems - Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (FRAMES-3MRA) is an important software model being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in risk assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. The 3MRAmore » modeling system includes a set of 17 science modules that collectively simulate release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk associated with hazardous contaminants disposed of in land-based waste management units (WMU) .« less

[Integral quantitative evaluation of working conditions in the construction industry].

PubMed

Guseĭnov, A A

1993-01-01

Present method evaluating the quality of environment (using MAC and MAL) does not enable to assess completely and objectively the work conditions of building industry due to multiple confounding elements. A solution to this complicated problem including the analysis of various correlating elements of the system "human--work conditions--environment" may be encouraged by social norm of morbidity, which is independent on industrial and natural environment. The complete integral assessment enables to see the whole situation and reveal the points at risk.

Twin Studies and Their Implications for Molecular Genetic Studies: Endophenotypes Integrate Quantitative and Molecular Genetics in ADHD Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Alexis C.; Neale, Michael C.

2010-01-01

Objective: To describe the utility of twin studies for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) research and demonstrate their potential for the identification of alternative phenotypes suitable for genomewide association, developmental risk assessment, treatment response, and intervention targets. Method: Brief descriptions of the classic…

A Four-Stage Method for Developing Early Interventions for Alcohol among Aboriginal Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mushquash, Christopher J.; Comeau, M. Nancy; McLeod, Brian D.; Stewart, Sherry H.

2010-01-01

This paper details a four-stage methodology for developing early alcohol interventions for at-risk Aboriginal youth. Stage 1 was an integrative approach to Aboriginal education that upholds Aboriginal traditional wisdom supporting respectful relationships to the Creator, to the land and to each other. Stage 2 used quantitative methods to…

77 FR 7576 - Draft Toxicological Review of 1,4-Dioxane: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-13

... Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) within the EPA Office of Research and Development. EPA is... Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711; telephone: (919) 541- 1964; facsimile: (919... EPA's IRIS is a human health assessment program that evaluates quantitative and qualitative risk...

Integrated viral clearance strategies-reflecting on the present, projecting to the future.

PubMed

Roush, David J

2018-01-20

Viral clearance and inactivation are critical steps in ensuring the safety of biological products derived from mammalian cell culture and are a component of an adventitious agent control strategy which spans both upstream and downstream processes. Although these approaches have been sufficient to support the development of biologics to date, the empirical and semi-quantitative nature of the approach leaves some potential gaps. For example, the concept of performing a quantitative risk assessment for the downstream components of virus safety was introduced in ICH Q5A for XMuLV. An ideal future state would be to perform a similar quantitative risk assessment for a range of viruses based on an assessment of potential virus risk in both upstream and downstream processes. This assessment combined with an integrated control strategy (including monitoring) would be extremely beneficial in minimizing potential adventitious agent risks. Significant progress has been achieved towards this goal in the last several years including recent advances in quantification of virus sequences in cell banks (ADVTIG), development of truly modular or generic viral clearance claims for specific unit operations, enhanced controls of upstream media (HTST/nanofiltration) and the use of RVLP for in-process monitoring. The recent shift towards continuous processing has the potential to enhance the criticality of in-line monitoring and the complexity of viral clearance and inactivation (owing to a wide range of potential 'worst case' viral clearance scenarios). However, gaps exist in, firstly, the ability to quantify potential virus risk levels in process streams in real-time, secondly, mechanistic understanding of virus/chromatography media interactions, and thirdly, mechanistic understanding of virus/filter interactions. Some new technologies may also need to be developed to allow for real-time confirmation of virus inactivation and clearance to support process development (both batch and continuous) and assessment of the impact of process deviations during manufacturing. This review paper provides an overview of the current state of an overall integrated control strategy for upstream and downstream processing and highlights the investments that could be pursued to achieve the future state of a quantitative virus risk assessment for a range of viruses. One potential approach to address these gaps is the use of data mining from large, comprehensive and diverse data sets to establish heuristic rules for virus detection, clearance and inactivation followed by specific hypothesis-driven experiments for cases that fall outside of the normal paradigm. Once this approach reaches a mature state suitable for implementation, there is an opportunity to update regulatory guidance (e.g. ICH Q5A) accordingly. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Geologic Sequestration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lepinski, James

2013-09-30

A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO{sub 2} capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and themore » potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments were conducted on three (3) sites using the QFMEA model: (1) SACROC Northern Platform CO{sub 2}-EOR Site in the Permian Basin, Scurry County, TX, (2) Pump Canyon CO{sub 2}-ECBM Site in the San Juan Basin, San Juan County, NM, and (3) Farnsworth Unit CO{sub 2}-EOR Site in the Anadarko Basin, Ochiltree County, TX. The sites were sufficiently different from each other to test the robustness of the QFMEA model.« less

Vessel wall characterization using quantitative MRI: what's in a number?

PubMed

Coolen, Bram F; Calcagno, Claudia; van Ooij, Pim; Fayad, Zahi A; Strijkers, Gustav J; Nederveen, Aart J

2018-02-01

The past decade has witnessed the rapid development of new MRI technology for vessel wall imaging. Today, with advances in MRI hardware and pulse sequences, quantitative MRI of the vessel wall represents a real alternative to conventional qualitative imaging, which is hindered by significant intra- and inter-observer variability. Quantitative MRI can measure several important morphological and functional characteristics of the vessel wall. This review provides a detailed introduction to novel quantitative MRI methods for measuring vessel wall dimensions, plaque composition and permeability, endothelial shear stress and wall stiffness. Together, these methods show the versatility of non-invasive quantitative MRI for probing vascular disease at several stages. These quantitative MRI biomarkers can play an important role in the context of both treatment response monitoring and risk prediction. Given the rapid developments in scan acceleration techniques and novel image reconstruction, we foresee the possibility of integrating the acquisition of multiple quantitative vessel wall parameters within a single scan session.

Nursing diagnoses (NANDA-I) in hematology-oncology: a Delphi-study.

PubMed

Speksnijder, Herma T; Mank, Arno P; van Achterberg, Theo

2011-01-01

To identify NANDA-I diagnoses that are most relevant to hematology-oncology nursing in Europe. In a two-round, electronic, quantitative Delphi study, 28 experts from nine European countries assessed the relevance of NANDA-I diagnoses and health problems. This study identified 64 relevant diagnoses and three health problems. All experts listed 11 diagnoses: "imbalanced nutrition: less than body requirements,"diarrhea,"fatigue,"risk for bleeding,"risk for infection,"impaired oral mucous membrane,"risk for impaired skin integrity,"impaired skin integrity,"hyperthermia,"nausea,"acute pain," and the health problem "pruritis." The "NANDA-I classification 2009-2011" describes, in almost all disease- and treatment-related problems, nursing diagnoses as relevant to the adult patient with hematological malignancy. These diagnoses are therefore recommended. © 2011, The Authors. International Journal of Nursing Terminologies and Classifications © 2011, NANDA International.

Quantitative Assessment the Relationship between p21 rs1059234 Polymorphism and Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Huang, Yong-Sheng; Fan, Qian-Qian; Li, Chuang; Nie, Meng; Quan, Hong-Yang; Wang, Lin

2015-01-01

p21 is a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor, which can arrest cell proliferation and serve as a tumor suppressor. Though many studies were published to assess the relationship between p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and various cancer risks, there was no definite conclusion on this association. To derive a more precise quantitative assessment of the relationship, a large scale meta-analysis of 5,963 cases and 8,405 controls from 16 eligible published case-control studies was performed. Our analysis suggested that rs1059234 was not associated with the integral cancer risk for both dominant model [(T/T+C/T) vs C/C, OR=1.00, 95% CI: 0.84-1.18] and recessive model [T/T vs (C/C+C/T), OR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.93-1.15)]. However, further stratified analysis showed rs1059234 was greatly associated with the risk of squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck (SCCHN). Thus, larger scale primary studies are still required to further evaluate the interaction of p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and cancer risk in specific cancer subtypes.

Risk appreciation for living kidney donors: another new subspecialty?

PubMed

Steiner, Robert W

2004-05-01

Quantitative estimates of the risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) for living donors would seem essential to defensible donor selection practices, as the 'safe/unsafe' model for donor selection is not viable. All kidney donors take risk, and four fundamental, qualitative criteria should instead be used to decide when donor rejection is justified. These criteria are lack of donor education about transplantation, donor irrationality, lack of free and voluntary donation, and/or that donor acceptance would unavoidably threaten the public trust or the integrity of the center's selection procedures. Such a data-based selection policy, with explicit documentation of unbiased and comprehensive donor education, will help neutralize the center's self interest in a more defensible way than by rejecting 'complicated' kidney donors out of hand, and in a more practical way than by the creation of center-independent donor counselors or waiting for donor registries to come to fruition. Living kidney donors with isolated medical abnormalities comprise a sizable subset of at risk donors for whom center acceptance practices vary markedly. This population provides a paradigm opportunity for quantitative risk estimation and counseling.

Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2014-01-01

NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.

Bone Health Monitoring in Astronauts: Recommended Use of Quantitative Computed Tomography [QCT] for Clinical and Operational Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibonga, J. D.; Truskowski, P.

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the concerns that astronauts in long duration flights might have a greater risk of bone fracture as they age than the general population. A panel of experts was convened to review the information and recommend mechanisms to monitor the health of bones in astronauts. The use of Quantitative Computed Tomography (QCT) scans for risk surveillance to detect the clinical trigger and to inform countermeasure evaluation is reviewed. An added benefit of QCT is that it facilitates an individualized estimation of bone strength by Finite Element Modeling (FEM), that can inform approaches for bone rehabilitation. The use of FEM is reviewed as a process that arrives at a composite number to estimate bone strength, because it integrates multiple factors.

Cardiac imaging: working towards fully-automated machine analysis & interpretation.

PubMed

Slomka, Piotr J; Dey, Damini; Sitek, Arkadiusz; Motwani, Manish; Berman, Daniel S; Germano, Guido

2017-03-01

Non-invasive imaging plays a critical role in managing patients with cardiovascular disease. Although subjective visual interpretation remains the clinical mainstay, quantitative analysis facilitates objective, evidence-based management, and advances in clinical research. This has driven developments in computing and software tools aimed at achieving fully automated image processing and quantitative analysis. In parallel, machine learning techniques have been used to rapidly integrate large amounts of clinical and quantitative imaging data to provide highly personalized individual patient-based conclusions. Areas covered: This review summarizes recent advances in automated quantitative imaging in cardiology and describes the latest techniques which incorporate machine learning principles. The review focuses on the cardiac imaging techniques which are in wide clinical use. It also discusses key issues and obstacles for these tools to become utilized in mainstream clinical practice. Expert commentary: Fully-automated processing and high-level computer interpretation of cardiac imaging are becoming a reality. Application of machine learning to the vast amounts of quantitative data generated per scan and integration with clinical data also facilitates a move to more patient-specific interpretation. These developments are unlikely to replace interpreting physicians but will provide them with highly accurate tools to detect disease, risk-stratify, and optimize patient-specific treatment. However, with each technological advance, we move further from human dependence and closer to fully-automated machine interpretation.

Technical guide for applications of gene expression profiling in human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals.

PubMed

Bourdon-Lacombe, Julie A; Moffat, Ivy D; Deveau, Michelle; Husain, Mainul; Auerbach, Scott; Krewski, Daniel; Thomas, Russell S; Bushel, Pierre R; Williams, Andrew; Yauk, Carole L

2015-07-01

Toxicogenomics promises to be an important part of future human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals. The application of gene expression profiles (e.g., for hazard identification, chemical prioritization, chemical grouping, mode of action discovery, and quantitative analysis of response) is growing in the literature, but their use in formal risk assessment by regulatory agencies is relatively infrequent. Although additional validations for specific applications are required, gene expression data can be of immediate use for increasing confidence in chemical evaluations. We believe that a primary reason for the current lack of integration is the limited practical guidance available for risk assessment specialists with limited experience in genomics. The present manuscript provides basic information on gene expression profiling, along with guidance on evaluating the quality of genomic experiments and data, and interpretation of results presented in the form of heat maps, pathway analyses and other common approaches. Moreover, potential ways to integrate information from gene expression experiments into current risk assessment are presented using published studies as examples. The primary objective of this work is to facilitate integration of gene expression data into human health risk assessments of environmental chemicals. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NASA's Risk Management System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

Risk Management Issues - An Aerospace Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perera, Jeevan S.

2011-01-01

Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks--risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements.. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner, Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

A novel approach for evaluating the risk of health care failure modes.

PubMed

Chang, Dong Shang; Chung, Jenq Hann; Sun, Kuo Lung; Yang, Fu Chiang

2012-12-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be employed to reduce medical errors by identifying the risk ranking of the health care failure modes and taking priority action for safety improvement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach of data analysis. The approach is to integrate FMEA and a mathematical tool-Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with "slack-based measure" (SBM), in the field of data analysis. The risk indexes (severity, occurrence, and detection) of FMEA are viewed as multiple inputs of DEA. The practicality and usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated by one case of health care. Being a systematic approach for improving the service quality of health care, the approach can offer quantitative corrective information of risk indexes that thereafter reduce failure possibility. For safety improvement, these new targets of the risk indexes could be used for management by objectives. But FMEA cannot provide quantitative corrective information of risk indexes. The novel approach can surely overcome this chief shortcoming of FMEA. After combining DEA SBM model with FMEA, the two goals-increase of patient safety, medical cost reduction-can be together achieved.

An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov; Thompson, Chad M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.

An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A descriptionmore » of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.« less

Designing automation for human use: empirical studies and quantitative models.

PubMed

Parasuraman, R

2000-07-01

An emerging knowledge base of human performance research can provide guidelines for designing automation that can be used effectively by human operators of complex systems. Which functions should be automated and to what extent in a given system? A model for types and levels of automation that provides a framework and an objective basis for making such choices is described. The human performance consequences of particular types and levels of automation constitute primary evaluative criteria for automation design when using the model. Four human performance areas are considered--mental workload, situation awareness, complacency and skill degradation. Secondary evaluative criteria include such factors as automation reliability, the risks of decision/action consequences and the ease of systems integration. In addition to this qualitative approach, quantitative models can inform design. Several computational and formal models of human interaction with automation that have been proposed by various researchers are reviewed. An important future research need is the integration of qualitative and quantitative approaches. Application of these models provides an objective basis for designing automation for effective human use.

Sexual Pleasure and Sexual Risk among Women who Use Methamphetamine: A Mixed Methods Study

PubMed Central

Lorvick, Jennifer; Bourgois, Philippe; Wenger, Lynn D.; Arreola, Sonya G.; Lutnick, Alexandra; Wechsberg, Wendee M.; Kral, Alex H.

2012-01-01

Background The intersection of drug use, sexual pleasure and sexual risk behavior is rarely explored when it comes to poor women who use drugs. This paper explores the relationship between sexual behavior and methamphetamine use in a community-based sample of women, exploring not only risk, but also desire, pleasure and the challenges of overcoming trauma. Methods Quantitative data were collected using standard epidemiological methods (N=322) for community-based studies. In addition, using purposive sampling, qualitative data were collected among a subset of participants (n=34). Data were integrated for mixed methods analysis. Results While many participants reported sexual risk behavior (unprotected vaginal or anal intercourse) in the quantitative survey, sexual risk was not the central narrative pertaining to sexual behavior and methamphetamine use in qualitative findings. Rather, desire, pleasure and disinhibition arose as central themes. Women described feelings of power and agency related to sexual behavior while high on methamphetamine. Findings were mixed on whether methamphetamine use increased sexual risk behavior. Conclusion The use of mixed methods afforded important insights into the sexual behavior and priorities of methamphetamine-using women. Efforts to reduce sexual risk should recognize and valorize the positive aspects of methamphetamine use for some women, building on positive feelings of power and agency as an approach to harm minimization. PMID:22954501

Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

PubMed

Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

2011-05-01

This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

A Functional Model for the Integration of Gains and Losses under Risk: Implications for the Measurement of Subjective Value

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Viegas, Ricardo G.; Oliveira, Armando M.; Garriga-Trillo, Ana; Grieco, Alba

2012-01-01

In order to be treated quantitatively, subjective gains and losses (utilities/disutilities) must be psychologically measured. If legitimate comparisons are sought between them, measurement must be at least interval level, with a common unit. If comparisons of absolute magnitudes across gains and losses are further sought, as in standard…

Reconciling incongruous qualitative and quantitative findings in mixed methods research: exemplars from research with drug using populations.

PubMed

Wagner, Karla D; Davidson, Peter J; Pollini, Robin A; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Washburn, Rachel; Palinkas, Lawrence A

2012-01-01

Mixed methods research is increasingly being promoted in the health sciences as a way to gain more comprehensive understandings of how social processes and individual behaviours shape human health. Mixed methods research most commonly combines qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis strategies. Often, integrating findings from multiple methods is assumed to confirm or validate the findings from one method with the findings from another, seeking convergence or agreement between methods. Cases in which findings from different methods are congruous are generally thought of as ideal, whilst conflicting findings may, at first glance, appear problematic. However, the latter situation provides the opportunity for a process through which apparently discordant results are reconciled, potentially leading to new emergent understandings of complex social phenomena. This paper presents three case studies drawn from the authors' research on HIV risk amongst injection drug users in which mixed methods studies yielded apparently discrepant results. We use these case studies (involving injection drug users [IDUs] using a Needle/Syringe Exchange Program in Los Angeles, CA, USA; IDUs seeking to purchase needle/syringes at pharmacies in Tijuana, Mexico; and young street-based IDUs in San Francisco, CA, USA) to identify challenges associated with integrating findings from mixed methods projects, summarize lessons learned, and make recommendations for how to more successfully anticipate and manage the integration of findings. Despite the challenges inherent in reconciling apparently conflicting findings from qualitative and quantitative approaches, in keeping with others who have argued in favour of integrating mixed methods findings, we contend that such an undertaking has the potential to yield benefits that emerge only through the struggle to reconcile discrepant results and may provide a sum that is greater than the individual qualitative and quantitative parts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reconciling incongruous qualitative and quantitative findings in mixed methods research: exemplars from research with drug using populations

PubMed Central

Wagner, Karla D.; Davidson, Peter J.; Pollini, Robin A.; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Washburn, Rachel; Palinkas, Lawrence A.

2011-01-01

Mixed methods research is increasingly being promoted in the health sciences as a way to gain more comprehensive understandings of how social processes and individual behaviours shape human health. Mixed methods research most commonly combines qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis strategies. Often, integrating findings from multiple methods is assumed to confirm or validate the findings from one method with the findings from another, seeking convergence or agreement between methods. Cases in which findings from different methods are congruous are generally thought of as ideal, while conflicting findings may, at first glance, appear problematic. However, the latter situation provides the opportunity for a process through which apparently discordant results are reconciled, potentially leading to new emergent understandings of complex social phenomena. This paper presents three case studies drawn from the authors’ research on HIV risk among injection drug users in which mixed methods studies yielded apparently discrepant results. We use these case studies (involving injection drug users [IDUs] using a needle/syringe exchange program in Los Angeles, California, USA; IDUs seeking to purchase needle/syringes at pharmacies in Tijuana, Mexico; and young street-based IDUs in San Francisco, CA, USA) to identify challenges associated with integrating findings from mixed methods projects, summarize lessons learned, and make recommendations for how to more successfully anticipate and manage the integration of findings. Despite the challenges inherent in reconciling apparently conflicting findings from qualitative and quantitative approaches, in keeping with others who have argued in favour of integrating mixed methods findings, we contend that such an undertaking has the potential to yield benefits that emerge only through the struggle to reconcile discrepant results and may provide a sum that is greater than the individual qualitative and quantitative parts. PMID:21680168

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF WATERBORNE INFECTIOUS DISEASE RISK USING THE HYDRAULIC MODEL AND OUTPATIENT DATA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amano, Ayako; Sakuma, Taisuke; Kazama, So

This study evaluated waterborne infectious diseases risk and incidence rate around Phonm Penh in Cambodia. We use the hydraulic flood simulation, coliform bacterium diffusion model, dose-response model and outpatient data for quantitative analysis. The results obtained are as follows; 1. The incidence (incidence rate) of diarrhea as water borne diseases risk is 0.14 million people (9%) in the inundation area. 2. The residents in the inundation area are exposed up to 4 times as high risk as daily mean calculated by the integrated model combined in the regional scale. 3.The infectious disease risk due to floods and inundation indicated is effective as an element to explain the risk. The scenario explains 34% number of patient estimated by the outpatient data.

Cardiac imaging: working towards fully-automated machine analysis & interpretation

PubMed Central

Slomka, Piotr J; Dey, Damini; Sitek, Arkadiusz; Motwani, Manish; Berman, Daniel S; Germano, Guido

2017-01-01

Introduction Non-invasive imaging plays a critical role in managing patients with cardiovascular disease. Although subjective visual interpretation remains the clinical mainstay, quantitative analysis facilitates objective, evidence-based management, and advances in clinical research. This has driven developments in computing and software tools aimed at achieving fully automated image processing and quantitative analysis. In parallel, machine learning techniques have been used to rapidly integrate large amounts of clinical and quantitative imaging data to provide highly personalized individual patient-based conclusions. Areas covered This review summarizes recent advances in automated quantitative imaging in cardiology and describes the latest techniques which incorporate machine learning principles. The review focuses on the cardiac imaging techniques which are in wide clinical use. It also discusses key issues and obstacles for these tools to become utilized in mainstream clinical practice. Expert commentary Fully-automated processing and high-level computer interpretation of cardiac imaging are becoming a reality. Application of machine learning to the vast amounts of quantitative data generated per scan and integration with clinical data also facilitates a move to more patient-specific interpretation. These developments are unlikely to replace interpreting physicians but will provide them with highly accurate tools to detect disease, risk-stratify, and optimize patient-specific treatment. However, with each technological advance, we move further from human dependence and closer to fully-automated machine interpretation. PMID:28277804

A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbi, Stefano; Villa, Ferdinando; Mojtahed, Vahid; Hegetschweiler, Karin Tessa; Giupponi, Carlo

2016-06-01

This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; and produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury, (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder and (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the effect of improving an existing early warning system, taking into account the reliability, lead time and scope (i.e., coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event.

Multisite formative assessment for the Pathways study to prevent obesity in American Indian schoolchildren123

PubMed Central

Gittelsohn, Joel; Evans, Marguerite; Story, Mary; Davis, Sally M; Metcalfe, Lauve; Helitzer, Deborah L; Clay, Theresa E

2016-01-01

We describe the formative assessment process, using an approach based on social learning theory, for the development of a school-based obesity-prevention intervention into which cultural perspectives are integrated. The feasibility phase of the Pathways study was conducted in multiple settings in 6 American Indian nations. The Pathways formative assessment collected both qualitative and quantitative data. The qualitative data identified key social and environmental issues and enabled local people to express their own needs and views. The quantitative, structured data permitted comparison across sites. Both types of data were integrated by using a conceptual and procedural model. The formative assessment results were used to identify and rank the behavioral risk factors that were to become the focus of the Pathways intervention and to provide guidance on developing common intervention strategies that would be culturally appropriate and acceptable to all sites. PMID:10195601

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

Quantitative Serum Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Metabolomics in Large-Scale Epidemiology: A Primer on -Omic Technologies

PubMed Central

Kangas, Antti J; Soininen, Pasi; Lawlor, Debbie A; Davey Smith, George; Ala-Korpela, Mika

2017-01-01

Abstract Detailed metabolic profiling in large-scale epidemiologic studies has uncovered novel biomarkers for cardiometabolic diseases and clarified the molecular associations of established risk factors. A quantitative metabolomics platform based on nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy has found widespread use, already profiling over 400,000 blood samples. Over 200 metabolic measures are quantified per sample; in addition to many biomarkers routinely used in epidemiology, the method simultaneously provides fine-grained lipoprotein subclass profiling and quantification of circulating fatty acids, amino acids, gluconeogenesis-related metabolites, and many other molecules from multiple metabolic pathways. Here we focus on applications of magnetic resonance metabolomics for quantifying circulating biomarkers in large-scale epidemiology. We highlight the molecular characterization of risk factors, use of Mendelian randomization, and the key issues of study design and analyses of metabolic profiling for epidemiology. We also detail how integration of metabolic profiling data with genetics can enhance drug development. We discuss why quantitative metabolic profiling is becoming widespread in epidemiology and biobanking. Although large-scale applications of metabolic profiling are still novel, it seems likely that comprehensive biomarker data will contribute to etiologic understanding of various diseases and abilities to predict disease risks, with the potential to translate into multiple clinical settings. PMID:29106475

A semi-quantitative approach to GMO risk-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Morris, E Jane

2011-10-01

In many countries there are increasing calls for the benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to be considered as well as the risks, and for a risk-benefit analysis to form an integral part of GMO regulatory frameworks. This trend represents a shift away from the strict emphasis on risks, which is encapsulated in the Precautionary Principle that forms the basis for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and which is reflected in the national legislation of many countries. The introduction of risk-benefit analysis of GMOs would be facilitated if clear methodologies were available to support the analysis. Up to now, methodologies for risk-benefit analysis that would be applicable to the introduction of GMOs have not been well defined. This paper describes a relatively simple semi-quantitative methodology that could be easily applied as a decision support tool, giving particular consideration to the needs of regulators in developing countries where there are limited resources and experience. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the release of an insect resistant maize variety in South Africa as a case study. The applicability of the method in the South African regulatory system is also discussed, as an example of what might be involved in introducing changes into an existing regulatory process.

The Portland Harbor Superfund Site Sustainability Project: Introduction.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, Anne G; Apitz, Sabine E; Harrison, David; Ruffle, Betsy; Edwards, Deborah A

2018-01-01

This article introduces the Portland Harbor Superfund Site Sustainability Project (PHSP) special series in this issue. The Portland Harbor Superfund Site is one of the "mega-sediment sites" in the United States, comprising about 10 miles of the Lower Willamette River, running through the heart of Portland, Oregon. The primary aim of the PHSP was to conduct a comprehensive sustainability assessment, integrating environmental, economic, and social considerations of a selection of the remedial alternatives laid out by the US Environmental Protection Agency. A range of tools were developed for this project to quantitatively address environmental, economic, and social costs and benefits based upon diverse stakeholder values. In parallel, a probabilistic risk assessment was carried out to evaluate the risk assumptions at the core of the remedial investigation and feasibility study process. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:17-21. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

What happens in the skin? Integrating skin permeation kinetics into studies of developmental and reproductive toxicity following topical exposure.

PubMed

Dancik, Yuri; Bigliardi, Paul L; Bigliardi-Qi, Mei

2015-12-01

Animal-based developmental and reproductive toxicological studies involving skin exposure rarely incorporate information on skin permeation kinetics. For practical reasons, animal studies cannot investigate the many factors which can affect human skin permeation and systemic uptake kinetics in real-life scenarios. Traditional route-to-route extrapolation is based on the same types of experiments and requires assumptions regarding route similarity. Pharmacokinetic modeling based on skin physiology and structure is the most efficient way to incorporate the variety of intrinsic skin and exposure-dependent parameters occurring in clinical and occupational settings into one framework. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models enable the integration of available in vivo, in vitro and in silico data to quantitatively predict the kinetics of uptake at the site of interest, as needed for 21st century toxicology and risk assessment. As demonstrated herein, proper interpretation and integration of these data is a multidisciplinary endeavor requiring toxicological, risk assessment, mathematical, pharmaceutical, biological and dermatological expertise. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

2017-12-01

Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

Quantitative evaluation of the risk induced by dominant geomorphological processes on different land uses, based on GIS spatial analysis models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ştefan, Bilaşco; Sanda, Roşca; Ioan, Fodorean; Iuliu, Vescan; Sorin, Filip; Dănuţ, Petrea

2018-06-01

Maramureş Land is mostly characterized by agricultural and forestry land use due to its specific configuration of topography and its specific pedoclimatic conditions. Taking into consideration the trend of the last century from the perspective of land management, a decrease in the surface of agricultural lands to the advantage of built-up and grass lands, as well as an accelerated decrease in the forest cover due to uncontrolled and irrational forest exploitation, has become obvious. The field analysis performed on the territory of Maramureş Land has highlighted a high frequency of two geomorphologic processes — landslides and soil erosion — which have a major negative impact on land use due to their rate of occurrence. The main aim of the present study is the GIS modeling of the two geomorphologic processes, determining a state of vulnerability (the USLE model for soil erosion and a quantitative model based on the morphometric characteristics of the territory, derived from the HG. 447/2003) and their integration in a complex model of cumulated vulnerability identification. The modeling of the risk exposure was performed using a quantitative approach based on models and equations of spatial analysis, which were developed with modeled raster data structures and primary vector data, through a matrix highlighting the correspondence between vulnerability and land use classes. The quantitative analysis of the risk was performed by taking into consideration the exposure classes as modeled databases and the land price as a primary alphanumeric database using spatial analysis techniques for each class by means of the attribute table. The spatial results highlight the territories with a high risk to present geomorphologic processes that have a high degree of occurrence and represent a useful tool in the process of spatial planning.

Predicting the impact of land management decisions on overland flow generation: Implications for cesium migration in forested Fukushima watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R.; Steefel, Carl I.; Williams, Kenneth H.; Birkholzer, Jens T.

2018-03-01

The effects of land use and land cover (LULC) change on environmental systems across the land surface's "critical zone" are highly uncertain, often making prediction and risk management decision difficult. In a series of numerical experiments with an integrated hydrologic model, overland flow generation is quantified for both present day and forest thinning scenarios. A typhoon storm event in a watershed near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant is used as an example application in which the interplay between LULC change and overland flow generation is important given that sediment-bound radionuclides may cause secondary contamination via surface water transport. Results illustrate the nonlinearity of the integrated system spanning from the deep groundwater to the atmosphere, and provide quantitative tools when determining the tradeoffs of different risk-mitigation strategies.

Patient-specific assessment of left ventricular thrombogenesis risk after acute myocardial infarction: a pilot clinical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossini, L.; Khan, A.; Del Alamo, J. C.; Martinez-Legazpi, P.; Pérez Del Villar, C.; Benito, Y.; Yotti, R.; Barrio, A.; Delgado-Montero, A.; Gonzalez-Mansilla, A.; Fernandez-Avilés, F.; Bermejo, J.

2016-11-01

Left ventricular thrombosis (LVT) is a major complication of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In these patients, the benefits of chronic anticoagulation therapy need to be balanced with its pro-hemorrhagic effects. Blood stasis in the cardiac chambers, a risk factor for LVT, is not addressed in current clinical practice. We recently developed a method to quantitatively assess the blood residence time (RT) inside the left ventricle (LV) based on 2D color-Doppler velocimetry (echo-CDV). Using time-resolved blood velocity fields acquired non-invasively, we integrate a modified advection equation to map intraventricular stasis regions. Here, we present how this tool can be used to estimate the risk of LVT in patients with AMI. 73 patients with a first anterior-AMI were studied by echo-CDV and RT analysis within 72h from admission and at a 5-month follow-up. Patients who eventually develop LVT showed early abnormalities of intraventricular RT: the apical region with RT>2s was significantly larger, had a higher RT and a longer wall contact length. Thus, quantitative analysis of intraventricular flow based on echocardiography may provide subclinical markers of LV thrombosis risk to guide clinical decision making.

Understanding Pre-Quantitative Risk in Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, Lynne P.

2011-01-01

Standard approaches to risk management in projects depend on the ability of teams to identify risks and quantify the probabilities and consequences of these risks (e.g., the 5 x 5 risk matrix). However, long before quantification does - or even can - occur, and long after, teams make decisions based on their pre-quantitative understanding of risk. These decisions can have long-lasting impacts on the project. While significant research has looked at the process of how to quantify risk, our understanding of how teams conceive of and manage pre-quantitative risk is lacking. This paper introduces the concept of pre-quantitative risk and discusses the implications of addressing pre-quantitative risk in projects.

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Risk, Resiliency, and Coping in National Guard Families

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

especially as it relates to resiliency. We set out to collect both quantitative survey data and qualitative interview data from one infantry battalion...date, we have collected predeployment (Time 1) and postdeployment (Time 2) survey data from service members and their spouse/significant other or parent...post-deployment surveys and have integrated this data with pre- deployment data and running analyses that will be a focus dissemination of the

A spatial Bayesian network model to assess the benefits of early warning for urban flood risk to people

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbi, S.; Villa, F.; Mojtahed, V.; Hegetschweiler, K. T.; Giupponi, C.

2015-10-01

This article presents a novel methodology to assess flood risk to people by integrating people's vulnerability and ability to cushion hazards through coping and adapting. The proposed approach extends traditional risk assessments beyond material damages; complements quantitative and semi-quantitative data with subjective and local knowledge, improving the use of commonly available information; produces estimates of model uncertainty by providing probability distributions for all of its outputs. Flood risk to people is modeled using a spatially explicit Bayesian network model calibrated on expert opinion. Risk is assessed in terms of: (1) likelihood of non-fatal physical injury; (2) likelihood of post-traumatic stress disorder; (3) likelihood of death. The study area covers the lower part of the Sihl valley (Switzerland) including the city of Zurich. The model is used to estimate the benefits of improving an existing Early Warning System, taking into account the reliability, lead-time and scope (i.e. coverage of people reached by the warning). Model results indicate that the potential benefits of an improved early warning in terms of avoided human impacts are particularly relevant in case of a major flood event: about 75 % of fatalities, 25 % of injuries and 18 % of post-traumatic stress disorders could be avoided.

Twelve recommendations for integrating existing systematic reviews into new reviews: EPC guidance.

PubMed

Robinson, Karen A; Chou, Roger; Berkman, Nancy D; Newberry, Sydne J; Fu, Rongwei; Hartling, Lisa; Dryden, Donna; Butler, Mary; Foisy, Michelle; Anderson, Johanna; Motu'apuaka, Makalapua; Relevo, Rose; Guise, Jeanne-Marie; Chang, Stephanie

2016-02-01

As time and cost constraints in the conduct of systematic reviews increase, the need to consider the use of existing systematic reviews also increases. We developed guidance on the integration of systematic reviews into new reviews. A workgroup of methodologists from Evidence-based Practice Centers developed consensus-based recommendations. Discussions were informed by a literature scan and by interviews with organizations that conduct systematic reviews. Twelve recommendations were developed addressing selecting reviews, assessing risk of bias, qualitative and quantitative synthesis, and summarizing and assessing body of evidence. We provide preliminary guidance for an efficient and unbiased approach to integrating existing systematic reviews with primary studies in a new review. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating Professional and Folk Models of HIV Risk: YMSM’s Perceptions of High-Risk Sex

PubMed Central

Kubicek, Katrina; Carpineto, Julie; McDavitt, Bryce; Weiss, George; Iverson, Ellen F.; Au, Chi-Wai; Kerrone, Dustin; Martinez, Miguel; Kipke, Michele D.

2009-01-01

Risks associated with HIV are well documented in research literature. While a great deal has been written about high-risk sex, little research has been conducted to examine how young men who have sex with men (YMSM) perceive and define high-risk sexual behavior. In this study, we compare the “professional’ and “folk” models of HIV-risk based on YMSM’s understanding of high-risk sex and where and how they gathered their understanding of HIV-risk behaviors. The findings reported here emerged from the quantitative and qualitative interviews from the Healthy Young Men’s Study (HYM), a longitudinal study examining risk and protective factors for substance use and sexual risk among an ethnically diverse sample of YMSM. Findings are discussed in relation to framing how service providers and others can increase YMSM’s knowledge of sexual behavior and help them build solid foundations of sexual health education to protect them from STI and HIV infection. PMID:18558819

Adolescent Gender-Related Abuse, Androphilia, and HIV Risk Among Transfeminine People of Color in New York City

PubMed Central

Hwahng, Sel J.; Nuttbrock, Larry

2014-01-01

Public health research has indicated extremely high HIV seroprevalence (13–63%) among low-income transfeminine people of color of African, Latina, and Asian descent living in the U.S. This paper combines two data sets. One set is based on an ethnographic study (N=50, 120 hours of participant observation). The other set longitudinal quantitative study (baseline N=600, N=275 followed for 3 years). Transfeminine people of color are much more likely to be androphilic and at high HIV risk. A greater understanding of adolescent gender-related abuse and trauma-impacted androphilia contributes towards a holistic conceptual model of HIV risk. A theoretical model is proposed that incorporates findings from both studies and integrates sociostructural, interpersonal, and intrapsychic levels of HIV risk. PMID:24294927

Optimizing oncology therapeutics through quantitative translational and clinical pharmacology: challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Venkatakrishnan, K; Friberg, L E; Ouellet, D; Mettetal, J T; Stein, A; Trocóniz, I F; Bruno, R; Mehrotra, N; Gobburu, J; Mould, D R

2015-01-01

Despite advances in biomedical research that have deepened our understanding of cancer hallmarks, resulting in the discovery and development of targeted therapies, the success rates of oncology drug development remain low. Opportunities remain for objective dose selection informed by exposure-response understanding to optimize the benefit-risk balance of novel therapies for cancer patients. This review article discusses the principles and applications of modeling and simulation approaches across the lifecycle of development of oncology therapeutics. Illustrative examples are used to convey the value gained from integration of quantitative clinical pharmacology strategies from the preclinical-translational phase through confirmatory clinical evaluation of efficacy and safety. © 2014 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Development and Assessment of Modules to Integrate Quantitative Skills in Introductory Biology Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoffman, Kathleen; Leupen, Sarah; Dowell, Kathy; Kephart, Kerrie; Leips, Jeff

2016-01-01

Redesigning undergraduate biology courses to integrate quantitative reasoning and skill development is critical to prepare students for careers in modern medicine and scientific research. In this paper, we report on the development, implementation, and assessment of stand-alone modules that integrate quantitative reasoning into introductory…

Situation-Dependent Medical Device Risk Estimation: Design and Evaluation of an Equipment Management Center For Vendor-Independent Integrated Operating Rooms.

PubMed

Maktabi, Marianne; Neumuth, Thomas

2017-12-22

The complexity of surgical interventions and the number of technologies involved are constantly rising. Hospital staff has to learn how to handle new medical devices efficiently. However, if medical device-related incidents occur, the patient treatment is delayed. Patient safety could therefore be supported by an optimized assistance system that helps improve the management of technical equipment by nonmedical hospital staff. We developed a system for the optimal monitoring of networked medical device activity and maintenance requirements, which works in conjunction with a vendor-independent integrated operating room and an accurate surgical intervention Time And Resource Management System. An integrated situation-dependent risk assessment system gives the medical engineers optimal awareness of the medical devices in the operating room. A qualitative and quantitative survey among ten medical engineers from three different hospitals was performed to evaluate the approach. A series of 25 questions was used to evaluate various aspects of our system as well as the system currently used. Moreover, the respondents were asked to perform five tasks related to system supervision and incident handling. Our system received a very positive feedback. The evaluation studies showed that the integration of information, the structured presentation of information, and the assistance modules provide valuable support to medical engineers. An automated operating room monitoring system with an integrated risk assessment and Time And Resource Management System module is a new way to assist the staff being outside of a vendor-independent integrated operating room, who are nevertheless involved in processes in the operating room.

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

17 CFR 229.305 - (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false (Item 305) Quantitative and... Information § 229.305 (Item 305) Quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk. (a) Quantitative information about market risk. (1) Registrants shall provide, in their reporting currency, quantitative...

Deficient Contractor Business Systems: Applying the Value at Risk (VaR) Model to Earned Value Management Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-30

QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS The use of quantitative cost risk analysis tools can be valuable in measuring numerical risk to the government ( Galway , 2004...assessment of the EVMS itself. Galway (2004) practically linked project quantitative risk assessment to EVM by focusing on cost, schedule, and...www.amazon.com Galway , L. (2004, February). Quantitative risk analysis for project management: A critical review (RAND Working Paper WR-112-RC

Development of quantitative risk acceptance criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Griesmeyer, J. M.; Okrent, D.

Some of the major considerations for effective management of risk are discussed, with particular emphasis on risks due to nuclear power plant operations. Although there are impacts associated with the rest of the fuel cycle, they are not addressed here. Several previously published proposals for quantitative risk criteria are reviewed. They range from a simple acceptance criterion on individual risk of death to a quantitative risk management framework. The final section discussed some of the problems in the establishment of a framework for the quantitative management of risk.

Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era.

PubMed

Chiu, Weihsueh A; Euling, Susan Y; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P

2013-09-15

The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA)--i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on "augmentation" of weight of evidence--using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards "integration" of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for "expansion" of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual "reorientation" of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Quantifying risks with exact analytical solutions of derivative pricing distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kun; Liu, Jing; Wang, Erkang; Wang, Jin

2017-04-01

Derivative (i.e. option) pricing is essential for modern financial instrumentations. Despite of the previous efforts, the exact analytical forms of the derivative pricing distributions are still challenging to obtain. In this study, we established a quantitative framework using path integrals to obtain the exact analytical solutions of the statistical distribution for bond and bond option pricing for the Vasicek model. We discuss the importance of statistical fluctuations away from the expected option pricing characterized by the distribution tail and their associations to value at risk (VaR). The framework established here is general and can be applied to other financial derivatives for quantifying the underlying statistical distributions.

Advancing the study of violence against women using mixed methods: integrating qualitative methods into a quantitative research program.

PubMed

Testa, Maria; Livingston, Jennifer A; VanZile-Tamsen, Carol

2011-02-01

A mixed methods approach, combining quantitative with qualitative data methods and analysis, offers a promising means of advancing the study of violence. Integrating semi-structured interviews and qualitative analysis into a quantitative program of research on women's sexual victimization has resulted in valuable scientific insight and generation of novel hypotheses for testing. This mixed methods approach is described and recommendations for integrating qualitative data into quantitative research are provided.

Deficient Contractor Business Systems: Applying the Value at Risk (VAR) Model to Earned Value Management Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

measuring numerical risk to the government ( Galway , 2004). However, quantitative risk analysis is rarely utilized in DoD acquisition programs because the...quantitative assessment of the EVMS itself. Galway (2004) practically linked project quantitative risk assessment to EVM by focusing on cost...Kindle version]. Retrieved from Amazon.com 83 Galway , L. (2004, February). Quantitative risk analysis for project management: A critical review

76 FR 77543 - Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-13

...] Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review AGENCY: Food and Drug... availability of a draft report entitled ``Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs... ``Quantitative Summary of the Benefits and Risks of Prescription Drugs: A Literature Review.'' A literature...

Flood risk change in some European, African and Asian catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi

2017-04-01

In light of the expected increase of flood risk in large parts of the world due to climate change and globally increasing exposure, efficient integrated flood risk management needs to be implemented. Societies learn from floods, and consequently improve their risk management. Such learning can occur through 'focusing events', i.e. events that provide a sudden, strong push for action. For example, the 1953 North Sea flood triggered the Delta Works in The Netherlands and the construction of the Thames Barrier. We show how societies have learnt from focusing events in river systems, by a semi-quantitative assessment of eight paired flood events around the world, i.e. consecutive floods that occurred in the same catchments, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. We unravel the main mechanisms underlying these eight success stories of risk reduction. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability. The role of changes in exposure is less apparent; positive and negative changes are reported. In some cases, significant investments in flood protection between the floods have played a large role in exposure and damage reduction. Reduction of vulnerability seems to be a key for better risk reduction via integrated flood risk management. Thus, we need to redouble efforts to improve our understanding of vulnerability.

Visions for a Pan-European digital data infrastructure for groundwater quantity and quality data relevant for implementation of the Water Framework Directive.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinsby, Klaus; Broers, Hans Peter

2014-05-01

The EU Water Framework and Groundwater Directives stipulate that EU member states (MS) should ensure good groundwater chemical and quantitative by 2015. For the assessment of good chemical status the MS have to establish Natural Background Levels (NBLs) and Threshold Values (TVs) for groundwater bodies at risk and compare current concentration levels to these. In addition the MS shall ensure trend reversals in cases where contaminants or water levels show critical increasing or decreasing trends. The EU MS have to demonstrate that the quantitative and chemical status of its groundwater bodies does not put drinking water, ecosystems or other legitimate uses at risk. Easy on-line access to relevant visualizations of groundwater quality and quantity data of e.g. nitrate, chloride, arsenic and water tables in Europe's major aquifer types compiled from national databases would be of great importance for managers, authorities and scientists conducting risk and status assessments. The Water Resources Expert Group of the EuroGeoSurveys propose to develop Pan-European interactive on-line digital maps and visualizations of concentrations levels and trends, as well as calculated natural background levels and threshold values for the most important aquifer types of Europe mainly derived based on principles established in the former EU project "BRIDGE" - Background cRiteria for the IDentification of Groundwater Thresholds. Further, we propose to develop Pan-European digital and dynamic maps and cross sections in close collaboration with ecologists, which delineate dependent or associated terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems across Europe where groundwater quantity and quality plays a significant role in sustaining good ecological status of the ecosystem, and where the water resources and ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate change. Finally, integrated water resources management requires integrated consideration of both deep and shallow groundwater and surface water issues and interaction. It is therefore proposed to map regions of Europe that use coupled groundwater-surface water models in integrated water resources and river basin management. In the presentation we will show selected examples of data visualizations of importance to integrated water resources and river basin management and the implementation of the Water Framework Directive.

Application of Risk-Based Inspection method for gas compressor station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Meng; Liang, Wei; Qiu, Zeyang; Lin, Yang

2017-05-01

According to the complex process and lots of equipment, there are risks in gas compressor station. At present, research on integrity management of gas compressor station is insufficient. In this paper, the basic principle of Risk Based Inspection (RBI) and the RBI methodology are studied; the process of RBI in the gas compressor station is developed. The corrosion loop and logistics loop of the gas compressor station are determined through the study of corrosion mechanism and process of the gas compressor station. The probability of failure is calculated by using the modified coefficient, and the consequence of failure is calculated by the quantitative method. In particular, we addressed the application of a RBI methodology in a gas compressor station. The risk ranking is helpful to find the best preventive plan for inspection in the case study.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

QbD for pediatric oral lyophilisates development: risk assessment followed by screening and optimization.

PubMed

Casian, Tibor; Iurian, Sonia; Bogdan, Catalina; Rus, Lucia; Moldovan, Mirela; Tomuta, Ioan

2017-12-01

This study proposed the development of oral lyophilisates with respect to pediatric medicine development guidelines, by applying risk management strategies and DoE as an integrated QbD approach. Product critical quality attributes were overviewed by generating Ishikawa diagrams for risk assessment purposes, considering process, formulation and methodology related parameters. Failure Mode Effect Analysis was applied to highlight critical formulation and process parameters with an increased probability of occurrence and with a high impact on the product performance. To investigate the effect of qualitative and quantitative formulation variables D-optimal designs were used for screening and optimization purposes. Process parameters related to suspension preparation and lyophilization were classified as significant factors, and were controlled by implementing risk mitigation strategies. Both quantitative and qualitative formulation variables introduced in the experimental design influenced the product's disintegration time, mechanical resistance and dissolution properties selected as CQAs. The optimum formulation selected through Design Space presented ultra-fast disintegration time (5 seconds), a good dissolution rate (above 90%) combined with a high mechanical resistance (above 600 g load). Combining FMEA and DoE allowed the science based development of a product with respect to the defined quality target profile by providing better insights on the relevant parameters throughout development process. The utility of risk management tools in pharmaceutical development was demonstrated.

ADVANCING THE STUDY OF VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN USING MIXED METHODS: INTEGRATING QUALITATIVE METHODS INTO A QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM

PubMed Central

Testa, Maria; Livingston, Jennifer A.; VanZile-Tamsen, Carol

2011-01-01

A mixed methods approach, combining quantitative with qualitative data methods and analysis, offers a promising means of advancing the study of violence. Integrating semi-structured interviews and qualitative analysis into a quantitative program of research on women’s sexual victimization has resulted in valuable scientific insight and generation of novel hypotheses for testing. This mixed methods approach is described and recommendations for integrating qualitative data into quantitative research are provided. PMID:21307032

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Go, Susie

2014-01-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Quantitative systems toxicology

PubMed Central

Bloomingdale, Peter; Housand, Conrad; Apgar, Joshua F.; Millard, Bjorn L.; Mager, Donald E.; Burke, John M.; Shah, Dhaval K.

2017-01-01

The overarching goal of modern drug development is to optimize therapeutic benefits while minimizing adverse effects. However, inadequate efficacy and safety concerns remain to be the major causes of drug attrition in clinical development. For the past 80 years, toxicity testing has consisted of evaluating the adverse effects of drugs in animals to predict human health risks. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recognized the need to develop innovative toxicity testing strategies and asked the National Research Council to develop a long-range vision and strategy for toxicity testing in the 21st century. The vision aims to reduce the use of animals and drug development costs through the integration of computational modeling and in vitro experimental methods that evaluates the perturbation of toxicity-related pathways. Towards this vision, collaborative quantitative systems pharmacology and toxicology modeling endeavors (QSP/QST) have been initiated amongst numerous organizations worldwide. In this article, we discuss how quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR), network-based, and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling approaches can be integrated into the framework of QST models. Additionally, we review the application of QST models to predict cardiotoxicity and hepatotoxicity of drugs throughout their development. Cell and organ specific QST models are likely to become an essential component of modern toxicity testing, and provides a solid foundation towards determining individualized therapeutic windows to improve patient safety. PMID:29308440

Use of Mixed Methods Research in Research on Coronary Artery Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, and Hypertension: A Scoping Review.

PubMed

Campbell, David J T; Tam-Tham, Helen; Dhaliwal, Kirnvir K; Manns, Braden J; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R; Sanmartin, Claudia; King-Shier, Kathryn

2017-01-01

Mixed methods research, the use of both qualitative and quantitative methods within 1 program of study, is becoming increasingly popular to allow investigators to explore patient experiences (qualitative) and also measure outcomes (quantitative). Coronary artery disease and its risk factors are some of the most studied conditions; however, the extent to which mixed methods studies are being conducted in these content areas is unknown. We sought to comprehensively describe the characteristics of published mixed methods studies on coronary artery disease and major risk factors (diabetes mellitus and hypertension). We conducted a scoping review of the literature indexed in PubMed, Medline, EMBASE, and CINAHL. We identified 811 abstracts for screening, of which 254 articles underwent full-text review and 97 reports of 81 studies met criteria for inclusion. The majority of studies in this area were conducted in the past 10 years by nurse researchers from the United States and United Kingdom. Diabetes mellitus was the most common content area for mixed methods investigation (compared with coronary artery disease and hypertension). Most authors described their rationale for using mixed methods as complementarity and did not describe study priority or how they reconciled differences in methodological paradigms. Some mixed methods study designs were more commonly used than others, including concurrent timing and integration at the interpretation stage. Qualitative strands were most commonly descriptive studies using interviews for data collection. Quantitative strands were most commonly cross-sectional observational studies, which relied heavily on self-report data such as surveys and scales. Although mixed methods research is becoming increasingly popular in the area of coronary artery disease and its risk factors, many of the more advanced mixed methods, qualitative, and quantitative techniques have not been commonly used in these areas. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Quantitative modeling of clinical, cellular, and extracellular matrix variables suggest prognostic indicators in cancer: a model in neuroblastoma.

PubMed

Tadeo, Irene; Piqueras, Marta; Montaner, David; Villamón, Eva; Berbegall, Ana P; Cañete, Adela; Navarro, Samuel; Noguera, Rosa

2014-02-01

Risk classification and treatment stratification for cancer patients is restricted by our incomplete picture of the complex and unknown interactions between the patient's organism and tumor tissues (transformed cells supported by tumor stroma). Moreover, all clinical factors and laboratory studies used to indicate treatment effectiveness and outcomes are by their nature a simplification of the biological system of cancer, and cannot yet incorporate all possible prognostic indicators. A multiparametric analysis on 184 tumor cylinders was performed. To highlight the benefit of integrating digitized medical imaging into this field, we present the results of computational studies carried out on quantitative measurements, taken from stromal and cancer cells and various extracellular matrix fibers interpenetrated by glycosaminoglycans, and eight current approaches to risk stratification systems in patients with primary and nonprimary neuroblastoma. New tumor tissue indicators from both fields, the cellular and the extracellular elements, emerge as reliable prognostic markers for risk stratification and could be used as molecular targets of specific therapies. The key to dealing with personalized therapy lies in the mathematical modeling. The use of bioinformatics in patient-tumor-microenvironment data management allows a predictive model in neuroblastoma.

Protocol for systematic review of evidence on the determinants and influence of early glycaemic control in childhood-onset type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Mazarello Paes, Veena; Charalampopoulos, Dimitrios; Khanolkar, Amal R; Taylor-Robinson, David; Viner, Russell; Edge, Julie; Stephenson, Terence; Amin, Rakesh

2015-11-12

Landmark studies in adult-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) populations indicate that improved glycaemic control through use of intensive insulin therapy is strongly associated with reduced risk for the development of diabetes-related complications and mortality in later years. However, it is unclear whether these associations can be extrapolated to childhood-onset T1D, given the influence of other important biological and psychosocial determinants of glycaemic control, particularly during adolescence. The aims of the review are (1) to investigate the impact of early glycaemic control (within the first 2 years after diagnosis) on subsequent glycaemic trends and risk of complications during the life course of childhood-onset T1D and (2) to identify the predictors of early glycaemic control in children and young people (0-25 years). The methods used in this study are systematic identification, review and mapping of quantitative (intervention and observational) and qualitative literature; assessing the effect and predictors of early glycaemic control in T1D (diagnosed ≤18 years) on risk or prevalence of later complications. An iterated search strategy, with no language or period restrictions, was applied to identify studies from six electronic databases. This will be supplemented by hand-searching (reference lists and contacting authors of studies meeting the inclusion criteria). Studies assessing glycaemic control within the first 2 years of diagnosis in children (at baseline) will be quality-assessed against predefined criteria and mapped descriptively to future health outcomes. Extracted data will be analysed and synthesised using narrative and forest plots or harvest plots for quantitative evidence and thematic analyses for qualitative studies. To get a deeper understanding of the predictors of early glycaemic control in reducing complications in childhood and adult life, we will integrate qualitative and quantitative evidence using mixed methods or parallel synthesis approach. These linked reviews will be the first to systematically investigate the effects of early glycaemic control and integrate both the quantitative and qualitative evidence on predictors of early glycaemic control in childhood-onset T1D in reducing future diabetes complications. This will help identify and map current research and inform development of effective future interventions. PROSPERO CRD42015024546.

Predicting long-term performance of engineered geologic carbon dioxide storage systems to inform decisions amidst uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawar, R.

2016-12-01

Risk assessment and risk management of engineered geologic CO2 storage systems is an area of active investigation. The potential geologic CO2 storage systems currently under consideration are inherently heterogeneous and have limited to no characterization data. Effective risk management decisions to ensure safe, long-term CO2 storage requires assessing and quantifying risks while taking into account the uncertainties in a storage site's characteristics. The key decisions are typically related to definition of area of review, effective monitoring strategy and monitoring duration, potential of leakage and associated impacts, etc. A quantitative methodology for predicting a sequestration site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale geologic storage projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. An integrated assessment modeling (IAM) paradigm which treats a geologic CO2 storage site as a system made up of various linked subsystems can be used to predict long-term performance. The subsystems include storage reservoir, seals, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, natural fractures/faults) and receptors (such as shallow groundwater aquifers). CO2 movement within each of the subsystems and resulting interactions are captured through reduced order models (ROMs). The ROMs capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. The computational efficiency allows for performing Monte Carlo simulations necessary for quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. We have used the IAM to predict long-term performance of geologic CO2 sequestration systems and to answer questions related to probability of leakage of CO2 through wellbores, impact of CO2/brine leakage into shallow aquifer, etc. Answers to such questions are critical in making key risk management decisions. A systematic uncertainty quantification approach can been used to understand how uncertain parameters associated with different subsystems (e.g., reservoir permeability, wellbore cement permeability, wellbore density, etc.) impact the overall site performance predictions.

Integrating Spatial Epidemiology into a Decision Model for Evaluation of Facial Palsy in Children

PubMed Central

Fine, Andrew M.; Brownstein, John S.; Nigrovic, Lise E.; Kimia, Amir A.; Olson, Karen L.; Thompson, Amy D.; Mandl, Kenneth D.

2013-01-01

Objective To develop a novel diagnostic algorithm for Lyme disease among children with facial palsy by integrating public health surveillance data with traditional clinical predictors. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Children’s Hospital Boston emergency department,1995–2007 Patients 264 children under age 20 years presenting with peripheral facial palsy who were evaluated for Lyme disease Main outcome measures Multivariate regression was used to identify independent clinical and epidemiologic predictors of Lyme facial palsy. Results 65% of children from high-risk counties during Lyme season tested positive, compared to 5% of children without geographic or seasonal risk factors present. Among patients with both seasonal and geographic risk factors, 80% with one clinical risk factor (fever or headache) and 100% with two clinical factors had Lyme. Factors independently associated with Lyme facial palsy were presentation from June-November (odds ratio 25, 95% CI 8.3–113), residence in a county where the most recent three year average Lyme incidence exceeded 4 cases/100,000 (18, 6.5–69), fever (3.9, 1.5–11), and headache (2.7, 1.3–5.8). Clinical experts correctly treated 68/94 (72%) patients with Lyme facial palsy, but a tool incorporating geographical and seasonal risk identified all 94 cases. Conclusions Most clinicians intuitively integrate geographic information into Lyme disease management, but we demonstrate quantitatively how formal use of geographically-based incidence in a clinical algorithm improves diagnostic accuracy. These findings demonstrate potential for improved outcomes from investments in health information technology that foster bidirectional communication between public health and clinical settings. PMID:21199982

Use of epidemiologic data in Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Persad, Amanda S.; Cooper, Glinda S.

2008-11-15

In human health risk assessment, information from epidemiologic studies is typically utilized in the hazard identification step of the risk assessment paradigm. However, in the assessment of many chemicals by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), epidemiologic data, both observational and experimental, have also been used in the derivation of toxicological risk estimates (i.e., reference doses [RfD], reference concentrations [RfC], oral cancer slope factors [CSF] and inhalation unit risks [IUR]). Of the 545 health assessments posted on the IRIS database as of June 2007, 44 assessments derived non-cancer or cancer risk estimates based on human data. RfD and RfC calculationsmore » were based on a spectrum of endpoints from changes in enzyme activity to specific neurological or dermal effects. There are 12 assessments with IURs based on human data, two assessments that extrapolated human inhalation data to derive CSFs and one that used human data to directly derive a CSF. Lung or respiratory cancer is the most common endpoint for cancer assessments based on human data. To date, only one chemical, benzene, has utilized human data for derivation of all three quantitative risk estimates (i.e., RfC, RfD, and dose-response modeling for cancer assessment). Through examples from the IRIS database, this paper will demonstrate how epidemiologic data have been used in IRIS assessments for both adding to the body of evidence in the hazard identification process and in the quantification of risk estimates in the dose-response component of the risk assessment paradigm.« less

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Quantitative coronary plaque analysis predicts high-risk plaque morphology on coronary computed tomography angiography: results from the ROMICAT II trial.

PubMed

Liu, Ting; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Puchner, Stefan B; Lu, Michael T; Ghemigian, Khristine; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Broersen, Alexander; Pursnani, Amit; Hoffmann, Udo; Ferencik, Maros

2018-02-01

Semi-automated software can provide quantitative assessment of atherosclerotic plaques on coronary CT angiography (CTA). The relationship between established qualitative high-risk plaque features and quantitative plaque measurements has not been studied. We analyzed the association between quantitative plaque measurements and qualitative high-risk plaque features on coronary CTA. We included 260 patients with plaque who underwent coronary CTA in the Rule Out Myocardial Infarction/Ischemia Using Computer Assisted Tomography (ROMICAT) II trial. Quantitative plaque assessment and qualitative plaque characterization were performed on a per coronary segment basis. Quantitative coronary plaque measurements included plaque volume, plaque burden, remodeling index, and diameter stenosis. In qualitative analysis, high-risk plaque was present if positive remodeling, low CT attenuation plaque, napkin-ring sign or spotty calcium were detected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between quantitative and qualitative high-risk plaque assessment. Among 888 segments with coronary plaque, high-risk plaque was present in 391 (44.0%) segments by qualitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, segments with high-risk plaque had higher total plaque volume, low CT attenuation plaque volume, plaque burden and remodeling index. Quantitatively assessed low CT attenuation plaque volume (odds ratio 1.12 per 1 mm 3 , 95% CI 1.04-1.21), positive remodeling (odds ratio 1.25 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and plaque burden (odds ratio 1.53 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with high-risk plaque. Quantitative coronary plaque characteristics (low CT attenuation plaque volume, positive remodeling and plaque burden) measured by semi-automated software correlated with qualitative assessment of high-risk plaque features.

The Associations Between Forced Sex and Severe Mental Health, Substance Use, and HIV Risk Behaviors Among Asian American Women

PubMed Central

Hahm, Hyeouk Chris; Augsberger, Astraea; Feranil, Mario; Jang, Jisun; Tagerman, Michelle

2017-01-01

We examined the association between forced sex history and mental health, sexual health, and substance use among Asian American women (n = 720); 14.3% of our sample (n = 103) reported forced sex experiences. Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed that participants with forced sex histories were 2-8 times more likely to have higher rates of mental health problems, HIV risk behavior, and substance use. Qualitative analysis was used to supplement the quantitative results and give depth to our findings. Our results suggest that interventions for Asian American women who experienced forced sex should integrate mental health, substance use, and sexual health treatments. PMID:27230614

Integrating service development with evaluation in telehealthcare: an ethnographic study.

PubMed

Finch, Tracy; May, Carl; Mair, Frances; Mort, Maggie; Gask, Linda

2003-11-22

To identify issues that facilitate the successful integration of evaluation and development of telehealthcare services. Ethnographic study using various qualitative research techniques to obtain data from several sources, including in-depth semistructured interviews, project steering group meetings, and public telehealthcare meetings. Seven telehealthcare evaluation projects (four randomised controlled trials and three pragmatic service evaluations) in the United Kingdom, studied over two years. Projects spanned a range of specialties-dermatology, psychiatry, respiratory medicine, cardiology, and oncology. Clinicians, managers, technical experts, and researchers involved in the projects. Key problems in successfully integrating evaluation and service development in telehealthcare are, firstly, defining existing clinical practices (and anticipating changes) in ways that permit measurement; secondly, managing additional workload and conflicting responsibilities brought about by combining clinical and research responsibilities (including managing risk); and, thirdly, understanding various perspectives on effectiveness and the limitations of evaluation results beyond the context of the research study. Combined implementation and evaluation of telehealthcare systems is complex, and is often underestimated. The distinction between quantitative outcomes and the workability of the system is important for producing evaluative knowledge that is of practical value. More pragmatic approaches to evaluation, that permit both quantitative and qualitative methods, are required to improve the quality of such research and its relevance for service provision in the NHS.

76 FR 19311 - Update of the 2003 Interagency Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health From...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-07

... the 2003 Interagency Quantitative Assessment of the Relative Risk to Public Health From Foodborne... quantitative targets established in ``Healthy People 2010.'' In 2005, FoodNet data showed 0.30 L. monocytogenes... 4). In 2003, FDA and FSIS published a quantitative assessment of the relative risk to public health...

Cryptosporidium Attenuation across the Wastewater Treatment Train: Recycled Water Fit for Purpose

PubMed Central

Fanok, Stella; Phillips, Renae; Lau, Melody; van den Akker, Ben; Monis, Paul

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Compliance with guideline removal targets for Cryptosporidium which do not provide any credit for the inactivation of oocysts through wastewater treatment processes can considerably increase the cost of providing recycled water. Here we present the application of an integrated assay to quantify both oocyst numbers and infectivity levels after various treatment stages at three Victorian and two South Australian (SA) wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Oocyst density in the raw sewage was commensurate with community disease burden, with early rounds of sampling capturing a widespread cryptosporidiosis outbreak in Victoria. The level of infectivity of oocysts in sewage was stable throughout the year but was significantly lower at the SA WWTPs. Removals across secondary treatment processes were seasonal, with poorer removals associated with inflow variability; however, no decrease in the oocyst infectivity was identified. For SA WWTPs, those oocysts remaining within the secondary treatment-clarified effluent were proportionally more infectious than those in raw sewage. Lagoon systems demonstrated significant inactivation or removal of oocysts, with attenuation being seasonal. Examination of a UV system emphasized its efficacy as a disinfectant barrier but conversely confirmed the importance of a multibarrier approach with the detection of infectious oocysts postdisinfection. The ability to characterize risk from infectious oocysts revealed that the risk from Cryptosporidium is significantly lower than previously thought and that its inclusion in quantitative risk assessments of reuse systems will more accurately direct the selection of treatment strategies and capital expenditure, influencing the sustainability of such schemes. IMPORTANCE Here we present the application of a recently developed integrated assay not only to quantify the removal of Cryptosporidium oocysts but also to quantify their infectivity across various treatment stages at five wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), thereby better measuring the “true effect” of the treatment train on oocyst risk reduction. For a number of the WWTPs analyzed in this study the risk, is significantly lower than previously thought. Therefore, the inclusion of oocyst infectivity in guideline values and in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has the potential to affect future treatment directions and capital expenditure. PMID:28039137

Cryptosporidium Attenuation across the Wastewater Treatment Train: Recycled Water Fit for Purpose.

PubMed

King, Brendon; Fanok, Stella; Phillips, Renae; Lau, Melody; van den Akker, Ben; Monis, Paul

2017-03-01

Compliance with guideline removal targets for Cryptosporidium which do not provide any credit for the inactivation of oocysts through wastewater treatment processes can considerably increase the cost of providing recycled water. Here we present the application of an integrated assay to quantify both oocyst numbers and infectivity levels after various treatment stages at three Victorian and two South Australian (SA) wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Oocyst density in the raw sewage was commensurate with community disease burden, with early rounds of sampling capturing a widespread cryptosporidiosis outbreak in Victoria. The level of infectivity of oocysts in sewage was stable throughout the year but was significantly lower at the SA WWTPs. Removals across secondary treatment processes were seasonal, with poorer removals associated with inflow variability; however, no decrease in the oocyst infectivity was identified. For SA WWTPs, those oocysts remaining within the secondary treatment-clarified effluent were proportionally more infectious than those in raw sewage. Lagoon systems demonstrated significant inactivation or removal of oocysts, with attenuation being seasonal. Examination of a UV system emphasized its efficacy as a disinfectant barrier but conversely confirmed the importance of a multibarrier approach with the detection of infectious oocysts postdisinfection. The ability to characterize risk from infectious oocysts revealed that the risk from Cryptosporidium is significantly lower than previously thought and that its inclusion in quantitative risk assessments of reuse systems will more accurately direct the selection of treatment strategies and capital expenditure, influencing the sustainability of such schemes. IMPORTANCE Here we present the application of a recently developed integrated assay not only to quantify the removal of Cryptosporidium oocysts but also to quantify their infectivity across various treatment stages at five wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), thereby better measuring the "true effect" of the treatment train on oocyst risk reduction. For a number of the WWTPs analyzed in this study the risk, is significantly lower than previously thought. Therefore, the inclusion of oocyst infectivity in guideline values and in quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has the potential to affect future treatment directions and capital expenditure. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Considerations in deriving quantitative cancer criteria for inorganic arsenic exposure via inhalation.

PubMed

Lewis, Ari S; Beyer, Leslie A; Zu, Ke

2015-01-01

The inhalation unit risk (IUR) that currently exists in the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (US EPA's) Integrated Risk Information System was developed in 1984 based on studies examining the relationship between respiratory cancer and arsenic exposure in copper smelters from two US locations: the copper smelter in Anaconda, Montana, and the American Smelting And Refining COmpany (ASARCO) smelter in Tacoma, Washington. Since US EPA last conducted its assessment, additional data have become available from epidemiology and mechanistic studies. In addition, the California Air Resources Board, Texas Commission of Environmental Quality, and Dutch Expert Committee on Occupational Safety have all conducted new risk assessments. All three analyses, which calculated IURs based on respiratory/lung cancer mortality, generated IURs that are lower (i.e., less restrictive) than the current US EPA value of 4.3×10(-3) (μg/m(3))(-1). The IURs developed by these agencies, which vary more than 20-fold, are based on somewhat different studies and use different methodologies to address uncertainties in the underlying datasets. Despite these differences, all were developed based on a cumulative exposure metric assuming a low-dose linear dose-response relationship. In this paper, we contrast and compare the analyses conducted by these agencies and critically evaluate strengths and limitations inherent in the data and methodologies used to develop quantitative risk estimates. In addition, we consider how these data could be best used to assess risk at much lower levels of arsenic in air, such as those experienced by the general public. Given that the mode of action for arsenic supports a threshold effect, and epidemiological evidence suggests that the arsenic concentration in air is a reliable predictor of lung/respiratory cancer risk, we developed a quantitative cancer risk analysis using a nonlinear threshold model. Applying a nonlinear model to occupational data, we established points of departure based on both cumulative exposure (μg/m(3)-years) to arsenic and arsenic concentration (μg/m(3)) via inhalation. Using these values, one can assess the lifetime risk of respiratory cancer mortality associated with ambient air concentrations of arsenic for the general US population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The risk of neoplastic processes transformation in cervix uteri].

PubMed

Kiseleva, V I; Krikunova, L I; Mkrtchian, L S; Liubina, L V; Beziaeva, G P; Panarina, L V; Zamuliaeva, I A

2014-01-01

There was performed a comparative analysis of quantitative load and physical status of human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 in groups of patients with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)--25 people and cervical cancer (CC)--85 people. According to the analysis there were selected criteria appropriate to a combination of adverse factors that characterized HPV- infection and at the same time estimated both quantitative load and physical status of the virus: high viral load (> 6,5 lg copies of HPV DNA per 100000 cells) in episomal form or low load (< 6,5 lg copies of HPV DNA per 100000 cells) in integrated form of the virus. According to calculations a relative chance of appearing of CC in CIN patients with unfavorable combination of factors was 7,5 times higher than in other patients.

Confluence and Contours: Reflexive Management of Environmental Risk.

PubMed

Soane, Emma; Schubert, Iljana; Pollard, Simon; Rocks, Sophie; Black, Edgar

2016-06-01

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro-level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro-level psychology to examine individual-level risk-related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk-specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory-based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso-level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantitative prediction of drug side effects based on drug-related features.

PubMed

Niu, Yanqing; Zhang, Wen

2017-09-01

Unexpected side effects of drugs are great concern in the drug development, and the identification of side effects is an important task. Recently, machine learning methods are proposed to predict the presence or absence of interested side effects for drugs, but it is difficult to make the accurate prediction for all of them. In this paper, we transform side effect profiles of drugs as their quantitative scores, by summing up their side effects with weights. The quantitative scores may measure the dangers of drugs, and thus help to compare the risk of different drugs. Here, we attempt to predict quantitative scores of drugs, namely the quantitative prediction. Specifically, we explore a variety of drug-related features and evaluate their discriminative powers for the quantitative prediction. Then, we consider several feature combination strategies (direct combination, average scoring ensemble combination) to integrate three informative features: chemical substructures, targets, and treatment indications. Finally, the average scoring ensemble model which produces the better performances is used as the final quantitative prediction model. Since weights for side effects are empirical values, we randomly generate different weights in the simulation experiments. The experimental results show that the quantitative method is robust to different weights, and produces satisfying results. Although other state-of-the-art methods cannot make the quantitative prediction directly, the prediction results can be transformed as the quantitative scores. By indirect comparison, the proposed method produces much better results than benchmark methods in the quantitative prediction. In conclusion, the proposed method is promising for the quantitative prediction of side effects, which may work cooperatively with existing state-of-the-art methods to reveal dangers of drugs.

What can acute medicine learn from qualitative methods?

PubMed

Heasman, Brett; Reader, Tom W

2015-10-01

The contribution of qualitative methods to evidence-based medicine is growing, with qualitative studies increasingly used to examine patient experience and unsafe organizational cultures. The present review considers qualitative research recently conducted on teamwork and organizational culture in the ICU and also other acute domains. Qualitative studies have highlighted the importance of interpersonal and social aspects of healthcare on managing and responding to patient care needs. Clear/consistent communication, compassion, and trust underpin successful patient-physician interactions, with improved patient experiences linked to patient safety and clinical effectiveness across a wide range of measures and outcomes. Across multidisciplinary teams, good communication facilitates shared understanding, decision-making and coordinated action, reducing patient risk in the process. Qualitative methods highlight the complex nature of risk management in hospital wards, which is highly contextualized to the demands and resources available, and influenced by multilayered social contexts. In addition to augmenting quantitative research, qualitative investigations enable the investigation of questions on social behaviour that are beyond the scope of quantitative assessment alone. To develop improved patient-centred care, health professionals should therefore consider integrating qualitative procedures into their existing assessments of patient/staff satisfaction.

Toxcast and the Use of Human Relevant In Vitro Exposures ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The path for incorporating new approach methods and technologies into quantitative chemical risk assessment poses a diverse set of scientific challenges. These challenges include sufficient coverage of toxicological mechanisms to meaningfully interpret negative test results, development of increasingly relevant test systems, computational modeling to integrate experimental data, putting results in a dose and exposure context, characterizing uncertainty, and efficient validation of the test systems and computational models. The presentation will cover progress at the U.S. EPA in systematically addressing each of these challenges and delivering more human-relevant risk-based assessments. This abstract does not necessarily reflect U.S. EPA policy. Presentation at the British Toxicological Society Annual Congress on ToxCast and the Use of Human Relevant In Vitro Exposures: Incorporating high-throughput exposure and toxicity testing data for 21st century risk assessments .

IRIS Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran (THF) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA is releasing the draft report, Toxicological Review of Tetrahydrofuran, that was distributed to Federal agencies and White House Offices for comment during the Science Discussion step of the IRIS Assessment Development Process. Comments received from other Federal agencies and White House Offices are provided below with external peer review panel comments. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for tetrahydrofuran. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

76 FR 18906 - Mancozeb; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-06

... from mancozeb and ETU in food as follows: i. Acute exposure. Quantitative acute dietary exposure and.... Cancer. EPA determines whether quantitative cancer exposure and risk assessments are appropriate for a... quantitative cancer risk assessment is appropriate, cancer risk may be quantified using a linear or nonlinear...

Confluence and Contours: Reflexive Management of Environmental Risk

PubMed Central

Schubert, Iljana; Pollard, Simon; Rocks, Sophie; Black, Edgar

2015-01-01

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro‐level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro‐level psychology to examine individual‐level risk‐related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk‐specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory‐based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso‐level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks. PMID:26720858

Integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in a health impact assessment: analysis of the novel smoke-free policy in Hungary.

PubMed

Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Gulis, Gabriel; Ádány, Róza

2013-04-01

Although the quantification of health outcomes in a health impact assessment (HIA) is scarce in practice, it is preferred by policymakers, as it assists various aspects of the decision-making process. This article provides an example of integrating a quantitative risk appraisal in an HIA performed for the recently adopted Hungarian anti-smoking policy which introduced a smoking ban in closed public places, workplaces and public transport vehicles, and is one of the most effective measures to decrease smoking-related ill health. A comprehensive, prospective HIA was conducted to map the full impact chain of the proposal. Causal pathways were prioritized in a transparent process with special attention given to those pathways for which measures of disease burden could be calculated for the baseline and predicted future scenarios. The proposal was found to decrease the prevalence of active and passive smoking and result in a considerably positive effect on several diseases, among which lung cancer, chronic pulmonary diseases, coronary heart diseases and stroke have the greatest importance. The health gain calculated for the quantifiable health outcomes is close to 1700 deaths postponed and 16,000 life years saved annually in Hungary. The provision of smoke-free public places has an unambiguously positive impact on the health of the public, especially in a country with a high burden of smoking-related diseases. The study described offers a practical example of applying quantification in an HIA, thereby promoting its incorporation into political decision making.

Prototype development of a web-based participative decision support platform in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Zar Chi; Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

This paper discusses the proposed background architecture and prototype development of an internet-based decision support system (DSS) in the field of natural hazards and risk management using open-source geospatial software and web technologies. It is based on a three-tier, client-server architecture with the support of boundless (opengeo) framework and its client side SDK application environment using customized gxp components and data utility classes. The main purpose of the system is to integrate the workflow of risk management systematically with the diverse involvement of stakeholders from different organizations dealing with natural hazards and risk for evaluation of management measures through the active online participation approach. It aims to develop an adaptive user friendly, web-based environment that allows the users to set up risk management strategies based on actual context and data by integrating web-GIS and DSS functionality associated with process flow and other visualization tools. Web-GIS interface has been integrated within the DSS to deliver maps and provide certain geo-processing capabilities on the web, which can be easily accessible and shared by different organizations located in case study sites of the project. This platform could be envisaged not only as a common web-based platform for the centralized sharing of data such as hazard maps, elements at risk maps and additional information but also to ensure an integrated platform of risk management where the users could upload data, analyze risk and identify possible alternative scenarios for risk reduction especially for floods and landslides, either quantitatively or qualitatively depending on the risk information provided by the stakeholders in case study regions. The level of involvement, access to and interaction with the provided functionality of the system varies depending on the roles and responsibilities of the stakeholders, for example, only the experts (planners, geological services, etc.) can have access to the alternative definition component to formulate the risk reduction measures. The development of such a participative platform would finally lead to an integrated risk management approach highlighting the needs to deal with involved experts and civil society in the decision-making process for evaluation of risk management measures through the active participation approach. The system will be applied and evaluated in four case study areas of the CHANGES project in Europe: Romania, North Eastern Italy, French Alps and Poland. However, the framework of the system is designed in a generic way so as to be applicable in other regions to achieve the high adaptability and flexibility of the system. The research has been undertaken as a part of the CHANGES project funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program.

Chromosomal integration of adenoviral vector DNA in vivo.

PubMed

Stephen, Sam Laurel; Montini, Eugenio; Sivanandam, Vijayshankar Ganesh; Al-Dhalimy, Muhseen; Kestler, Hans A; Finegold, Milton; Grompe, Markus; Kochanek, Stefan

2010-10-01

So far there has been no report of any clinical or preclinical evidence for chromosomal vector integration following adenovirus (Ad) vector-mediated gene transfer in vivo. We used liver gene transfer with high-capacity Ad vectors in the FAH(Deltaexon5) mouse model to analyze homologous and heterologous recombination events between vector and chromosomal DNA. Intravenous injection of Ad vectors either expressing a fumarylacetoacetate hydrolase (FAH) cDNA or carrying part of the FAH genomic locus resulted in liver nodules of FAH-expressing hepatocytes, demonstrating chromosomal vector integration. Analysis of junctions between vector and chromosomal DNA following heterologous recombination indicated integration of the vector genome through its termini. Heterologous recombination occurred with a median frequency of 6.72 x 10(-5) per transduced hepatocyte, while homologous recombination occurred more rarely with a median frequency of 3.88 x 10(-7). This study has established quantitative and qualitative data on recombination of adenoviral vector DNA with genomic DNA in vivo, contributing to a risk-benefit assessment of the biosafety of Ad vector-mediated gene transfer.

Integrated Medical Model Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.; Saile, L.;

Transcriptional risk scores link GWAS to eQTLs and predict complications in Crohn's disease.

PubMed

Marigorta, Urko M; Denson, Lee A; Hyams, Jeffrey S; Mondal, Kajari; Prince, Jarod; Walters, Thomas D; Griffiths, Anne; Noe, Joshua D; Crandall, Wallace V; Rosh, Joel R; Mack, David R; Kellermayer, Richard; Heyman, Melvin B; Baker, Susan S; Stephens, Michael C; Baldassano, Robert N; Markowitz, James F; Kim, Mi-Ok; Dubinsky, Marla C; Cho, Judy; Aronow, Bruce J; Kugathasan, Subra; Gibson, Greg

2017-10-01

Gene expression profiling can be used to uncover the mechanisms by which loci identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) contribute to pathology. Given that most GWAS hits are in putative regulatory regions and transcript abundance is physiologically closer to the phenotype of interest, we hypothesized that summation of risk-allele-associated gene expression, namely a transcriptional risk score (TRS), should provide accurate estimates of disease risk. We integrate summary-level GWAS and expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data with RNA-seq data from the RISK study, an inception cohort of pediatric Crohn's disease. We show that TRSs based on genes regulated by variants linked to inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) not only outperform genetic risk scores (GRSs) in distinguishing Crohn's disease from healthy samples, but also serve to identify patients who in time will progress to complicated disease. Our dissection of eQTL effects may be used to distinguish genes whose association with disease is through promotion versus protection, thereby linking statistical association to biological mechanism. The TRS approach constitutes a potential strategy for personalized medicine that enhances inference from static genotypic risk assessment.

Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

2007-08-01

According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

Risk assessment of local dermal effects and skin sensitisation under the EU Chemicals Regulation REACH: a proposal for a qualitative, exposure scenario specific, approach.

PubMed

Schaafsma, G; Hertsenberg, A J; Marquart, J

2011-08-01

Within the framework of REACH, an assessment regarding local dermal effects and skin sensitisation should be performed for substances. Quantitative hazard information for these effects is often not available. Furthermore, it is difficult to relate the way in which animals are exposed in dermal toxicity studies directly to dermal exposure in practice. In the absence of quantitative information, a qualitative assessment for dermal effects is the most reasonable option. The qualitative approach as proposed in the REACH guidance recommends only general risk management measures (RMM) for three categories with a low, moderate and high identified hazard, without specifying which RMM are needed for a specific exposure scenario. We propose to differentiate frequency of exposure based on differences in activities and to compare measured and estimated local skin exposure levels with rules of thumb for evaluation of control of risks per hazard category. For workers, specific RMM regimes are assigned to each combination of hazard category and process category (PROC). For consumers, a strategy in which RMM are arranged from product-integrated measures to the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) is presented. Our approach may be transferred into automated assessment tools like Chesar and CEFIC GES. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Toward Integration: From Quantitative Biology to Mathbio-Biomath?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marsteller, Pat; de Pillis, Lisette; Findley, Ann; Joplin, Karl; Pelesko, John; Nelson, Karen; Thompson, Katerina; Usher, David; Watkins, Joseph

2010-01-01

In response to the call of "BIO2010" for integrating quantitative skills into undergraduate biology education, 30 Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) Program Directors at the 2006 HHMI Program Directors Meeting established a consortium to investigate, implement, develop, and disseminate best practices resulting from the integration of math and…

Awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension is low among adults in Aksum town, northern Ethiopia: A sequential quantitative-qualitative study.

PubMed

Gebrihet, Teklay Aredehey; Mesgna, Kebede Haile; Gebregiorgis, Yosef Sibhatu; Kahsay, Alemayehu Bayray; Weldehaweria, Negassie Berhe; Weldu, Meresa Gebremedhin

2017-01-01

Hypertension is a major risk factor of cardiovascular diseases which are the leading causes of deaths from chronic non-communicable diseases in Ethiopia. However, little is documented in the issue. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the prevalence, associated factors, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension among adults 18 years old or above in Aksum town, Tigray region, North Ethiopia. A sequential quantitative-qualitative study was conducted among adults aged 18 years and above in Aksum town. A multi stage sampling procedure was used to select the study participants for the quantitative study whilst convenience sampling technique was used for the qualitative part. A pre-tested and structured questionnaire was used to collect quantitative data, and an interview guide was used to collect the qualitative data. The logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors independently associated with hypertension using SPSS Version 20. P-values of < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. For the qualitative data, iterative hearing of the discussions verbatim interpretation was followed by categorizing similar ideas into themes and finally triangulated with the quantitative results. The overall prevalence of hypertension was 16.5% (95% CI: 13.4, 20.0). Awareness, treatment and control of hypertension were 43%, 2.1% and 18.2%, respectively. Being unable to read and write [AOR = 4.73, 95% CI:1.11, 20.23], not consuming fruit [AOR = 4.31, 95% CI:1.74, 10.66], being physically inactive [AOR = 20.11, 95% CI:8.75, 6.20], not knowing physical inactivity is a risk factor of hypertension [AOR = 3.57, 95% CI: 1.69, 7.69] and being overweight/obese [AOR = 9.2, 95% CI:4.54, 18.67] were significantly associated with hypertension. Remarkably, all identified hypertensive cases were linked to the nearby hospital for confirmation of diagnosis, care and follow-up and all of them were found to be hypertensive. This suggests that implementing primary health care approach integrated with the urban health extension package may be effective in the prevention and control of hypertension in poor settings. Prevalence of hypertension among adults was very high, but awareness, treatment and control of hypertension was very low. Being unable to read and write, not consuming fruit, being physically inactive, overweight/obesity and not knowing physical inactivity is a risk factor for hypertension were independently associated with hypertension. Policy makers need to consider integrating prevention and control of hypertension with health extension package. Appropriate information, education and communication strategies should also be designed and implemented to avoid unhealthy lifestyles and promote healthy practices.

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Quantitative Risk-Benefit Analysis of Prophylactic Surgery Prior to Extended-Duration Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carroll, Danielle; Reyes, David; Kerstman, Eric; Walton, Marlei; Antonsen, Erik

2017-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Among otherwise healthy astronauts undertaking deep space missions, the risks for acute appendicitis (AA) and cholecystitis (AC) are not zero. If these conditions were to occur during spaceflight they may require surgery for definitive care. The proposed study quantifies and compares the risks of developing de novo AA and AC in-flight to the surgical risks of prophylactic laparoscopic appendectomy (LA) and cholecystectomy (LC) using NASA's Integrated Medical Model (IMM). METHODS: The IMM is a Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts medical events during spaceflight missions and estimates the impact of these medical events on crew health. In this study, four Design Reference Missions (DRMs) were created to assess the probability of an astronaut developing in-flight small-bowel obstruction (SBO) following prophylactic 1) LA, 2) LC, 3) LA and LC, or 4) neither surgery (SR# S-20160407-351). Model inputs were drawn from a large, population-based 2011 Swedish study that examined the incidence and risks of post-operative SBO over a 5-year follow-up period. The study group included 1,152 patients who underwent LA, and 16,371 who underwent LC. RESULTS: Preliminary results indicate that prophylactic LA may yield higher mission risks than the control DRM. Complete analyses are pending and will be subsequently available. DISCUSSION: The risk versus benefits of prophylactic surgery in astronauts to decrease the probability of acute surgical events during spaceflight has only been qualitatively examined in prior studies. Within the assumptions and limitations of the IMM, this work provides the first quantitative guidance that has previously been lacking to this important question for future deep space exploration missions.

A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

PubMed

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-03-01

This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Quantitative ADME-base Tool for Exploring Human ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Exposure to a wide range of chemicals through our daily habits and routines is ubiquitous and largely unavoidable within modern society. The potential for human exposure, however, has not been quantified for the vast majority of chemicals with wide commercial use. Creative advances in exposure science are needed to support efficient and effective evaluation and management of chemical risks, particularly for chemicals in consumer products. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development is developing, or collaborating in the development of, scientifically-defensible methods for making quantitative or semi-quantitative exposure predictions. The Exposure Prioritization (Ex Priori) model is a simplified, quantitative visual dashboard that provides a rank-ordered internalized dose metric to simultaneously explore exposures across chemical space (not chemical by chemical). Diverse data streams are integrated within the interface such that different exposure scenarios for “individual,” “population,” or “professional” time-use profiles can be interchanged to tailor exposure and quantitatively explore multi-chemical signatures of exposure, internalized dose (uptake), body burden, and elimination. Ex Priori has been designed as an adaptable systems framework that synthesizes knowledge from various domains and is amenable to new knowledge/information. As such, it algorithmically captures the totality of exposure across pathways. It

Cancer imaging phenomics toolkit: quantitative imaging analytics for precision diagnostics and predictive modeling of clinical outcome.

PubMed

Davatzikos, Christos; Rathore, Saima; Bakas, Spyridon; Pati, Sarthak; Bergman, Mark; Kalarot, Ratheesh; Sridharan, Patmaa; Gastounioti, Aimilia; Jahani, Nariman; Cohen, Eric; Akbari, Hamed; Tunc, Birkan; Doshi, Jimit; Parker, Drew; Hsieh, Michael; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Li, Hongming; Ou, Yangming; Doot, Robert K; Bilello, Michel; Fan, Yong; Shinohara, Russell T; Yushkevich, Paul; Verma, Ragini; Kontos, Despina

2018-01-01

The growth of multiparametric imaging protocols has paved the way for quantitative imaging phenotypes that predict treatment response and clinical outcome, reflect underlying cancer molecular characteristics and spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and can guide personalized treatment planning. This growth has underlined the need for efficient quantitative analytics to derive high-dimensional imaging signatures of diagnostic and predictive value in this emerging era of integrated precision diagnostics. This paper presents cancer imaging phenomics toolkit (CaPTk), a new and dynamically growing software platform for analysis of radiographic images of cancer, currently focusing on brain, breast, and lung cancer. CaPTk leverages the value of quantitative imaging analytics along with machine learning to derive phenotypic imaging signatures, based on two-level functionality. First, image analysis algorithms are used to extract comprehensive panels of diverse and complementary features, such as multiparametric intensity histogram distributions, texture, shape, kinetics, connectomics, and spatial patterns. At the second level, these quantitative imaging signatures are fed into multivariate machine learning models to produce diagnostic, prognostic, and predictive biomarkers. Results from clinical studies in three areas are shown: (i) computational neuro-oncology of brain gliomas for precision diagnostics, prediction of outcome, and treatment planning; (ii) prediction of treatment response for breast and lung cancer, and (iii) risk assessment for breast cancer.

Unlocking the relationship of biotic integrity of impaired waters to anthropogenic stresses.

PubMed

Novotny, Vladimir; Bartosová, Alena; O'Reilly, Neal; Ehlinger, Timothy

2005-01-01

The Clean Water Act expressed its goals in terms of restoring and preserving the physical, chemical and biological integrity of the Nation's waters. Integrity has been defined as the ability of the water body's ecological system to support and maintain a balanced integrated, adaptive community of organisms comparable to that of a natural biota of the region. Several indices of biotic integrity (IBIs) have been developed to measure quantitatively the biotic composition and, hence, the integrity. Integrity can be impaired by discharges of pollutants from point and nonpoint sources and by other pollution-related to watershed/landscape and channel stresses, including channel and riparian zone modifications and habitat impairment. Various models that link the stressors to the biotic assessment endpoints, i.e., the IBIs, have been presented and discussed. Simple models that link IBIs directly to single or multiple surrogate stressors such as percent imperviousness are inadequate because they may not represent a true cause-effect proximate relationship. Furthermore, some surrogate landscape parameters are irreversible and the relationships cannot be used for development of plans for restoration of the water body integrity. A concept of a layered hierarchical model that will link the watershed, landscape and stream morphology pollution stressors to the biotic assessment endpoints (IBIs) is described. The key groups of structural components of the model are: IBIs and their metrics in the top layer, chemical water and sediment risks and a habitat quality index in the layer below, in-stream concentrations in water and sediments and channel/habitat impairment parameters in the third layer, and watershed/landscaper pollution generating stressors, land use change rates, and hydrology in the lowest layer of stressors. A modified and expanded Maximum Species Richness concept is developed and used to reveal quantitatively the functional relationships between the top two layers of the structural components and parameters of the model.

Evaluation of UK Integrated Care Pilots: research protocol

PubMed Central

Ling, Tom; Bardsley, Martin; Adams, John; Lewis, Richard; Roland, Martin

2010-01-01

Background In response to concerns that the needs of the aging population for well-integrated care were increasing, the English National Health Service (NHS) appointed 16 Integrated Care Pilots following a national competition. The pilots have a range of aims including development of new organisational structures to support integration, changes in staff roles, reducing unscheduled emergency hospital admissions, reduced length of hospital stay, increasing patient satisfaction, and reducing cost. This paper describes the evaluation of the initiative which has been commissioned. Study design and data collection methods A mixed methods approach has been adopted including interviews with staff and patients, non-participant observation of meetings, structured written feedback from sites, questionnaires to patients and staff, and analysis of routinely collected hospital utilisation data for patients/service users. The qualitative analysis aims to identify the approaches taken to integration by the sites, the benefits which result, the context in which benefits have resulted, and the mechanisms by which they occur. Methods of analysis The quantitative analysis adopts a ‘difference in differences’ approach comparing health care utilisation before and after the intervention with risk-matched controls. The qualitative data analysis adopts a ‘theory of change’ approach in which we triangulate data from the quantitative analysis with qualitative data in order to describe causal effects (what happens when an independent variable changes) and causal mechanisms (what connects causes to their effects). An economic analysis will identify what incremental resources are required to make integration succeed and how they can be combined efficiently to produce better outcomes for patients. Conclusion This evaluation will produce a portfolio of evidence aimed at strengthening the evidence base for integrated care, and in particular identifying the context in which interventions are likely to be effective. These data will support a series of evaluation judgements aimed at reducing uncertainties about the role of integrated care in improving the efficient and effective delivery of healthcare. PMID:20922068

Evaluation of UK Integrated Care Pilots: research protocol.

PubMed

Ling, Tom; Bardsley, Martin; Adams, John; Lewis, Richard; Roland, Martin

2010-09-27

In response to concerns that the needs of the aging population for well-integrated care were increasing, the English National Health Service (NHS) appointed 16 Integrated Care Pilots following a national competition. The pilots have a range of aims including development of new organisational structures to support integration, changes in staff roles, reducing unscheduled emergency hospital admissions, reduced length of hospital stay, increasing patient satisfaction, and reducing cost. This paper describes the evaluation of the initiative which has been commissioned. A mixed methods approach has been adopted including interviews with staff and patients, non-participant observation of meetings, structured written feedback from sites, questionnaires to patients and staff, and analysis of routinely collected hospital utilisation data for patients/service users. The qualitative analysis aims to identify the approaches taken to integration by the sites, the benefits which result, the context in which benefits have resulted, and the mechanisms by which they occur. The quantitative analysis adopts a 'difference in differences' approach comparing health care utilisation before and after the intervention with risk-matched controls. The qualitative data analysis adopts a 'theory of change' approach in which we triangulate data from the quantitative analysis with qualitative data in order to describe causal effects (what happens when an independent variable changes) and causal mechanisms (what connects causes to their effects). An economic analysis will identify what incremental resources are required to make integration succeed and how they can be combined efficiently to produce better outcomes for patients. This evaluation will produce a portfolio of evidence aimed at strengthening the evidence base for integrated care, and in particular identifying the context in which interventions are likely to be effective. These data will support a series of evaluation judgements aimed at reducing uncertainties about the role of integrated care in improving the efficient and effective delivery of healthcare.

Brain Volume as an Integrated Marker for the Risk of Death in a Community-Based Sample: Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility--Reykjavik Study.

PubMed

Van Elderen, Saskia S G C; Zhang, Qian; Sigurdsson, Sigudur; Haight, Thaddeus J; Lopez, Oscar; Eiriksdottir, Gudny; Jonsson, Palmi; de Jong, Laura; Harris, Tamara B; Garcia, Melissa; Gudnason, Vilmundar; van Buchem, Mark A; Launer, Lenore J

2016-01-01

Total brain volume is an integrated measure of health and may be an independent indicator of mortality risk independent of any one clinical or subclinical disease state. We investigate the association of brain volume to total and cause-specific mortality in a large nondemented stroke-free community-based cohort. The analysis includes 3,543 men and women (born 1907-1935) participating in the Age, Gene, Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study. Participants with a known brain-related high risk for mortality (cognitive impairment or stroke) were excluded from these analyses. Quantitative estimates of total brain volume, white matter, white matter lesions, total gray matter (GM; cortical GM and subcortical GM separately), and focal cerebral vascular disease were generated from brain magnetic resonance imaging. Brain atrophy was expressed as brain tissue volume divided by total intracranial volume, yielding a percentage. Mean follow-up duration was 7.2 (0-10) years, with 647 deaths. Cox regression was used to analyze the association of mortality to brain atrophy, adjusting for demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and cerebral vascular disease. Reduced risk of mortality was significantly associated with higher total brain volume (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval = 0.71, 0.65-0.78), white matter (0.85, 0.78-0.93), total GM (0.74, 0.68-0.81), and cortical GM (0.78, 0.70-0.87). Overall, the associations were similar for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular-related deaths. Independent of multiple risk factors and cerebral vascular damage, global brain volume predicts mortality in a large nondemented stroke-free community-dwelling older cohort. Total brain volume may be an integrated measure reflecting a range of health and with further investigation could be a useful clinical tool when assessing risk for mortality. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Gerontological Society of America 2014.

Contribution of physical modelling to climate-driven landslide hazard mapping: an alpine test site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandromme, R.; Desramaut, N.; Baills, A.; Hohmann, A.; Grandjean, G.; Sedan, O.; Mallet, J. P.

2012-04-01

The aim of this work is to develop a methodology for integrating climate change scenarios into quantitative hazard assessment and especially their precipitation component. The effects of climate change will be different depending on both the location of the site and the type of landslide considered. Indeed, mass movements can be triggered by different factors. This paper describes a methodology to address this issue and shows an application on an alpine test site. Mechanical approaches represent a solution for quantitative landslide susceptibility and hazard modeling. However, as the quantity and the quality of data are generally very heterogeneous at a regional scale, it is necessary to take into account the uncertainty in the analysis. In this perspective, a new hazard modeling method is developed and integrated in a program named ALICE. This program integrates mechanical stability analysis through a GIS software taking into account data uncertainty. This method proposes a quantitative classification of landslide hazard and offers a useful tool to gain time and efficiency in hazard mapping. However, an expertise approach is still necessary to finalize the maps. Indeed it is the only way to take into account some influent factors in slope stability such as heterogeneity of the geological formations or effects of anthropic interventions. To go further, the alpine test site (Barcelonnette area, France) is being used to integrate climate change scenarios into ALICE program, and especially their precipitation component with the help of a hydrological model (GARDENIA) and the regional climate model REMO (Jacob, 2001). From a DEM, land-cover map, geology, geotechnical data and so forth the program classifies hazard zones depending on geotechnics and different hydrological contexts varying in time. This communication, realized within the framework of Safeland project, is supported by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development, Area "Environment", Activity 1.3.3.1 "Prediction of triggering and risk assessment for landslides".

An Integrated Risk Management Model for Source Water Protection Areas

PubMed Central

Chiueh, Pei-Te; Shang, Wei-Ting; Lo, Shang-Lien

2012-01-01

Watersheds are recognized as the most effective management unit for the protection of water resources. For surface water supplies that use water from upstream watersheds, evaluating threats to water quality and implementing a watershed management plan are crucial for the maintenance of drinking water safe for humans. The aim of this article is to establish a risk assessment model that provides basic information for identifying critical pollutants and areas at high risk for degraded water quality. In this study, a quantitative risk model that uses hazard quotients for each water quality parameter was combined with a qualitative risk model that uses the relative risk level of potential pollution events in order to characterize the current condition and potential risk of watersheds providing drinking water. In a case study of Taipei Source Water Area in northern Taiwan, total coliforms and total phosphorus were the top two pollutants of concern. Intensive tea-growing and recreational activities around the riparian zone may contribute the greatest pollution to the watershed. Our risk assessment tool may be enhanced by developing, recording, and updating information on pollution sources in the water supply watersheds. Moreover, management authorities could use the resultant information to create watershed risk management plans. PMID:23202770

Systematic Integration of Brain eQTL and GWAS Identifies ZNF323 as a Novel Schizophrenia Risk Gene and Suggests Recent Positive Selection Based on Compensatory Advantage on Pulmonary Function

PubMed Central

Luo, Xiong-Jian; Mattheisen, Manuel; Li, Ming; Huang, Liang; Rietschel, Marcella; Børglum, Anders D.; Als, Thomas D.; van den Oord, Edwin J.; Aberg, Karolina A.; Mors, Ole; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Luo, Zhenwu; Degenhardt, Franziska; Cichon, Sven; Schulze, Thomas G.; Nöthen, Markus M.; Su, Bing; Zhao, Zhongming; Gan, Lin; Yao, Yong-Gang

2015-01-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple risk variants and loci that show robust association with schizophrenia. Nevertheless, it remains unclear how these variants confer risk to schizophrenia. In addition, the driving force that maintains the schizophrenia risk variants in human gene pool is poorly understood. To investigate whether expression-associated genetic variants contribute to schizophrenia susceptibility, we systematically integrated brain expression quantitative trait loci and genome-wide association data of schizophrenia using Sherlock, a Bayesian statistical framework. Our analyses identified ZNF323 as a schizophrenia risk gene (P = 2.22×10–6). Subsequent analyses confirmed the association of the ZNF323 and its expression-associated single nucleotide polymorphism rs1150711 in independent samples (gene-expression: P = 1.40×10–6; single-marker meta-analysis in the combined discovery and replication sample comprising 44123 individuals: P = 6.85×10−10). We found that the ZNF323 was significantly downregulated in hippocampus and frontal cortex of schizophrenia patients (P = .0038 and P = .0233, respectively). Evidence for pleiotropic effects was detected (association of rs1150711 with lung function and gene expression of ZNF323 in lung: P = 6.62×10–5 and P = 9.00×10–5, respectively) with the risk allele (T allele) for schizophrenia acting as protective allele for lung function. Subsequent population genetics analyses suggest that the risk allele (T) of rs1150711 might have undergone recent positive selection in human population. Our findings suggest that the ZNF323 is a schizophrenia susceptibility gene whose expression may influence schizophrenia risk. Our study also illustrates a possible mechanism for maintaining schizophrenia risk variants in the human gene pool. PMID:25759474

Integrating service development with evaluation in telehealthcare: an ethnographic study

PubMed Central

Finch, Tracy; May, Carl; Mair, Frances; Mort, Maggie; Gask, Linda

2003-01-01

Objectives To identify issues that facilitate the successful integration of evaluation and development of telehealthcare services. Design Ethnographic study using various qualitative research techniques to obtain data from several sources, including in-depth semistructured interviews, project steering group meetings, and public telehealthcare meetings. Setting Seven telehealthcare evaluation projects (four randomised controlled trials and three pragmatic service evaluations) in the United Kingdom, studied over two years. Projects spanned a range of specialties—dermatology, psychiatry, respiratory medicine, cardiology, and oncology. Participants Clinicians, managers, technical experts, and researchers involved in the projects. Results and discussion Key problems in successfully integrating evaluation and service development in telehealthcare are, firstly, defining existing clinical practices (and anticipating changes) in ways that permit measurement; secondly, managing additional workload and conflicting responsibilities brought about by combining clinical and research responsibilities (including managing risk); and, thirdly, understanding various perspectives on effectiveness and the limitations of evaluation results beyond the context of the research study. Conclusions Combined implementation and evaluation of telehealthcare systems is complex, and is often underestimated. The distinction between quantitative outcomes and the workability of the system is important for producing evaluative knowledge that is of practical value. More pragmatic approaches to evaluation, that permit both quantitative and qualitative methods, are required to improve the quality of such research and its relevance for service provision in the NHS. PMID:14630758

Analysis of human papilloma virus type 52 integration status in exfoliated cervical cells.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; Liu, Zhanjun; Li, Ji; Li, Juan; Yan, Jianghong; Su, Yunchuan; Li, Shuying; Li, Jintao

2017-12-01

To explore the significance of human papilloma virus type 52 (HPV52) infection and its integration in cells within cervical lesions, the expression levels of HPV52 were detected using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The copy numbers of HPV52 E2, HPV52 E6 and the reference gene β-actin were determined by quantitative PCR to analyze the association between HPV52 integration and cervical lesions. HPV52 integration was analyzed by the amplification of papillomavirus oncogene transcripts. A total of 13 samples from 468 cases were positive for HPV52. Among the samples, 1 case with an E2/E6 ratio >1 was purely episomal, 3 cases with an E2/E6 ratio of 0 were purely integrated, and 9 cases with an E2/E6 ratio of between 0 and 1 were a mixture of integrated and episomal. With the progression of cervical disease, the prevalence of the episomal type decreased gradually, and the prevalence of the integrated (episomal and integrated) forms increased. The pure integration of HPV52 occurred in chromosomes 2, 5 and 8. These results indicate that HPV52 integration into the host genome may be a key factor in cervical lesions. Thus, patients at high risk for cervical lesions may potentially be identified by screening for HPV52 infection and integration.

Beyond the Floodplain: Drivers of Flood Risk in Coastal Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; McPhearson, T.; Rosi, E. J.

2017-12-01

While the catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Katrina increased awareness of coastal flood risk, conventional approaches to flood risk assessment do not adequately represent the drivers of flood risk in the unique, highly engineered landscape of dense cities. We review the recent (1996-2016) history of flooding events and current regional climate change projection for 4 diverse coastal cities in the United States: San Juan, Miami, Baltimore and New York. Our review suggests that while all 4 of these cities face increased risk from direct coastal flooding with climate change, pluvial flooding will be an additional, important driver of risk that is currently poorly quantified. Unlike other types of flooding, pluvial flood risk is not limited to a contiguous riverine or coastal floodplain, but is instead driven by interactions between spatially variable geophysical drivers (intense rainfall, shallow groundwater, and influent tidal water), social drivers (patterns of land use) and technical drivers (urban stormwater and coastal infrastructure). We discuss approaches for quantitative assessment of pluvial flood risk, the challenges presented by the lack of data on geophysical flooding drivers in dense cities, and opportunities for integrated research to provide the scientific information needed by practitioners.

Risk Acceptance Personality Paradigm: How We View What We Don't Know We Don't Know

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massie, Michael J.; Morris, A. Terry

2011-01-01

The purpose of integrated hazard analyses, probabilistic risk assessments, failure modes and effects analyses, fault trees and many other similar tools is to give managers of a program some idea of the risks associated with their program. All risk tools establish a set of undesired events and then try to evaluate the risk to the program by assessing the severity of the undesired event and the likelihood of that event occurring. Some tools provide qualitative results, some provide quantitative results and some do both. However, in the end the program manager and his/her team must decide which risks are acceptable and which are not. Even with a wide array of analysis tools available, risk acceptance is often a controversial and difficult decision making process. And yet, today's space exploration programs are moving toward more risk based design approaches. Thus, risk identification and good risk assessment is becoming even more vital to the engineering development process. This paper explores how known and unknown information influences risk-based decisions by looking at how the various parts of our personalities are affected by what they know and what they don't know. This paper then offers some criteria for consideration when making risk-based decisions.

Mixed methods in gerontological research: Do the qualitative and quantitative data “touch”?

PubMed Central

Happ, Mary Beth

2010-01-01

This paper distinguishes between parallel and integrated mixed methods research approaches. Barriers to integrated mixed methods approaches in gerontological research are discussed and critiqued. The author presents examples of mixed methods gerontological research to illustrate approaches to data integration at the levels of data analysis, interpretation, and research reporting. As a summary of the methodological literature, four basic levels of mixed methods data combination are proposed. Opportunities for mixing qualitative and quantitative data are explored using contemporary examples from published studies. Data transformation and visual display, judiciously applied, are proposed as pathways to fuller mixed methods data integration and analysis. Finally, practical strategies for mixing qualitative and quantitative data types are explicated as gerontological research moves beyond parallel mixed methods approaches to achieve data integration. PMID:20077973

Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context.

PubMed

Kull, Daniel; Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan

2013-07-01

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost-efficient in a development context. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost-effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

An integrative formal model of motivation and decision making: The MGPM*.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Yeo, Gillian; Loft, Shayne; Vancouver, Jeffrey B; Neal, Andrew

2016-09-01

We develop and test an integrative formal model of motivation and decision making. The model, referred to as the extended multiple-goal pursuit model (MGPM*), is an integration of the multiple-goal pursuit model (Vancouver, Weinhardt, & Schmidt, 2010) and decision field theory (Busemeyer & Townsend, 1993). Simulations of the model generated predictions regarding the effects of goal type (approach vs. avoidance), risk, and time sensitivity on prioritization. We tested these predictions in an experiment in which participants pursued different combinations of approach and avoidance goals under different levels of risk. The empirical results were consistent with the predictions of the MGPM*. Specifically, participants pursuing 1 approach and 1 avoidance goal shifted priority from the approach to the avoidance goal over time. Among participants pursuing 2 approach goals, those with low time sensitivity prioritized the goal with the larger discrepancy, whereas those with high time sensitivity prioritized the goal with the smaller discrepancy. Participants pursuing 2 avoidance goals generally prioritized the goal with the smaller discrepancy. Finally, all of these effects became weaker as the level of risk increased. We used quantitative model comparison to show that the MGPM* explained the data better than the original multiple-goal pursuit model, and that the major extensions from the original model were justified. The MGPM* represents a step forward in the development of a general theory of decision making during multiple-goal pursuit. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2014-06-01

Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural system under failure correlations.

Quantitative analysis applied to contrast medium extravasation by using the computed-tomography number within the region of interest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jae-Seung; Im, In-Chul; Kim, Moon-Jib; Goo, Eun-Hoe; Kim, Sun-Ju; Kim, Kwang; Kwak, Byung-Joon

2014-02-01

The present study was carried out to present a method to analyze extravasation quantitatively by measuring the computed tomography (CT) number after determining the region of interest (ROI) in the CT images obtained from patients suspected of extravasation induced by contrast medium auto-injection. To achieve this, we divided the study subjects into a group of patients who incurred extravasation and a group of patients who underwent routine scans without incurring extravasation. The CT numbers at IV sites were obtained as reference values, and CT numbers at extravasation sites and hepatic portal veins, respectively, were obtained as relative values. Thereupon, the predicted time for extravasation ( T EP ) and the predicted ratio for extravasation ( R EP ) of an extravasation site were obtained and analyzed quantitatively. In the case of extravasation induced by a dual auto-injector, the values of the CT numbers were confirmed to be lower and the extravasation site to be enlarged when compared to the extravasation induced by a single autoinjector. This is because the physiological saline introduced after the injection of the contrast agent diluted the concentration of the extravasated contrast agent. Additionally, the T EP caused by the auto-injector was about 40 seconds, and we could perform a precise quantitative assessment of the site suspected of extravasation. In conclusion, the dual auto-injection method, despite its advantage of reducing the volume of contrast agent and improving the quality of images for patients with good vascular integrity, was judged to be likely to increase the risk of extravasation and aggravate outcomes for patients with poor vascular integrity by enlarging extravasation sites.

A Quantitative Threats Analysis for the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.

2007-01-01

The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an endangered marine mammal endemic to the southeastern United States. The primary threats to manatee populations are collisions with watercraft and the potential loss of warm-water refuges. For the purposes of listing, recovery, and regulation under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), an understanding of the relative effects of the principal threats is needed. This work is a quantitative approach to threats analysis, grounded in the assumption that an appropriate measure of status under the ESA is based on the risk of extinction, as quantified by the probability of quasi-extinction. This is related to the qualitative threats analyses that are more common under the ESA, but provides an additional level of rigor, objectivity, and integration. In this approach, our philosophy is that analysis of the five threat factors described in Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA can be undertaken within an integrated quantitative framework. The basis of this threats analysis is a comparative population viability analysis. This involves forecasting the Florida manatee population under different scenarios regarding the presence of threats, while accounting for process variation (environmental, demographic, and catastrophic stochasticity) as well as parametric and structural uncertainty. We used the manatee core biological model (CBM) for this viability analysis, and considered the role of five threats: watercraft-related mortality, loss of warm-water habitat in winter, mortality in water-control structures, entanglement, and red tide. All scenarios were run with an underlying parallel structure that allowed a more powerful estimation of the effects of the various threats. The results reflect our understanding of manatee ecology (as captured in the structure of the CBM), our estimates of manatee demography (as described by the parameters in the model), and our characterization of the mechanisms by which the threats act on manatees. As an example of the type of results generated, we estimated that the probability of the manatee population falling to less than 250 adults on either the Atlantic or Gulf coasts (from a current statewide population size of near 3300) within 100 years is 8.6%. Complete removal of the watercraft threat alone would reduce this risk to 0.4%; complete removal of the warm-water threat to 4.2%; removal of both threats would reduce the risk to 0.1%. The modeling approach we have taken also allows us to consider partial removal of threats, as well as removal of multiple threats simultaneously. We believe the measure we have proposed (probability of quasi-extinction over y years, with quasi-extinction defined as dropping below a threshold of z on either coast) is a suitable measure of status that integrates a number of the elements that are relevant to interpretation under the ESA (it directly integrates risk of extinction and reduction of range, and indirectly integrates loss of genetic diversity). But the identification of the time frame of interest and the tolerable risk of quasi-extinction are policy decisions, and an ecology-based quasi-extinction threshold has not yet been determined. We have endeavored to provide results over a wide range of these parameters to give decision-makers useful information to assess status. This assessment of threats suggests that watercraft-related mortality is having the greatest impact on manatee population growth and resilience. Elimination of this single threat would greatly reduce the probability of quasi-extinction. Loss of warm-water is also a significant threat, particularly over the long-term. Red tide and entanglement, while noticeable threats, have had less of an impact on the manatee population. The effect of water control structures may have already been largely mitigated. We did not, however, consider an exhaustive list of threats. Other threats (e.g., reduction of food resources due to storms and development) may play a

Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, J.; Song, L.; Zou, Q.; Guo, J.; Wang, Y.

2014-02-01

In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

Using In Vitro High-Throughput Screening Data for Predicting ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Today there are more than 80,000 chemicals in commerce and the environment. The potential human health risks are unknown for the vast majority of these chemicals as they lack human health risk assessments, toxicity reference values and risk screening values. We aim to use computational toxicology and quantitative high throughput screening (qHTS) technologies to fill these data gaps, and begin to prioritize these chemicals for additional assessment. By coupling qHTS data with adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) we can use ontologies to make predictions about potential hazards and to identify those assays which are sufficient to infer these same hazards. Once those assays are identified, we can use bootstrap natural spline-based metaregression to integrate the evidence across multiple replicates or assays (if a combination of assays are together necessary to be sufficient). In this pilot, we demonstrate how we were able to identify that benzo[k]fluoranthene (B[k]F) may induce DNA damage and steatosis using qHTS data and two separate AOPs. We also demonstrate how bootstrap natural spline-based metaregression can be used to integrate the data across multiple assay replicates to generate a concentration-response curve. We used this analysis to calculate an internal point of departure of 0.751µM and risk-specific concentrations of 0.378µM for both 1:1,000 and 1:10,000 additive risk for B[k]F induced DNA damage based on the p53 assay. Based on the available evidence, we

Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

PubMed

Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

2011-05-15

In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative influence of risk factors on blood glucose level.

PubMed

Chen, Songjing; Luo, Senlin; Pan, Limin; Zhang, Tiemei; Han, Longfei; Zhao, Haixiu

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to quantitatively analyze the influence of risk factors on the blood glucose level, and to provide theory basis for understanding the characteristics of blood glucose change and confirming the intervention index for type 2 diabetes. The quantitative method is proposed to analyze the influence of risk factors on blood glucose using back propagation (BP) neural network. Ten risk factors are screened first. Then the cohort is divided into nine groups by gender and age. According to the minimum error principle, nine BP models are trained respectively. The quantitative values of the influence of different risk factors on the blood glucose change can be obtained by sensitivity calculation. The experiment results indicate that weight is the leading cause of blood glucose change (0.2449). The second factors are cholesterol, age and triglyceride. The total ratio of these four factors reaches to 77% of the nine screened risk factors. And the sensitivity sequences can provide judgment method for individual intervention. This method can be applied to risk factors quantitative analysis of other diseases and potentially used for clinical practitioners to identify high risk populations for type 2 diabetes as well as other disease.

The Impact of Integrated Infant and Young Child Feeding and Micronutrient Powder Intervention on Feeding Practices and Anemia in Children Aged 6-23 Months in Madagascar.

PubMed

Locks, Lindsey M; Reerink, Ietje; Tucker Brown, Amal; Gnegne, Smaila; Ramalanjaona, Noelimanjaka; Nanama, Simeon; Duggan, Christopher P; Garg, Aashima

2017-06-07

This study assesses the impact of an integrated infant and young child feeding (IYCF) and micronutrient powder (MNP) intervention on children's risk of anemia and IYCF practices in Madagascar. Quantitative baseline and endline surveys were conducted in representative households with children 6-23 months from two districts, where an 18-month IYCF-MNP intervention was implemented. Relative risks comparing children's risk of anemia and maternal IYCF knowledge and practices at baseline versus endline, and also at endline among MNP-users versus non-users were estimated using log-binomial regression models. 372 and 475 children aged 6-23 months were assessed at baseline and endline respectively. Prevalence of anemia fell from 75.3% to 64.9% from baseline to endline ( p = 0.002); the reduction in the risk of anemia remained significant in models adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics (ARR (95% CI): 0.86 (0.78, 0.95), p = 0.003). In endline assessments, 229 out of 474 (48.3%) of children had consumed MNPs. MNP-users had a lower risk of anemia (ARR (95% CI): 0.86 (0.74, 0.99), p = 0.04) than non-users, after controlling for child's dietary diversity and morbidity, maternal counseling by community-health-workers, and sociodemographic characteristics. Mothers interviewed at endline also had greater nutrition knowledge and were more likely to feed their children ≥4 food groups (ARR (95% CI): 2.92 (2.24, 3.80), p < 0.001), and the minimum acceptable diet (ARR (95% CI): 2.88 (2.17, 3.82), p < 0.001) than mothers interviewed at baseline. Integration of MNP into IYCF interventions is a viable strategy for improving children's consumption of micronutrients and reducing risk of anemia. The addition of MNP does not negatively impact, and may improve, IYCF practices.

Mapping malaria risk and vulnerability in the United Republic of Tanzania: a spatial explicit model.

PubMed

Hagenlocher, Michael; Castro, Marcia C

2015-01-01

Outbreaks of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) impose a heavy burden on vulnerable populations. Despite recent progress in eradication and control, malaria remains the most prevalent VBD. Integrative approaches that take into account environmental, socioeconomic, demographic, biological, cultural, and political factors contributing to malaria risk and vulnerability are needed to effectively reduce malaria burden. Although the focus on malaria risk has increasingly gained ground, little emphasis has been given to develop quantitative methods for assessing malaria risk including malaria vulnerability in a spatial explicit manner. Building on a conceptual risk and vulnerability framework, we propose a spatial explicit approach for modeling relative levels of malaria risk - as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability - in the United Republic of Tanzania. A logistic regression model was employed to identify a final set of risk factors and their contribution to malaria endemicity based on multidisciplinary geospatial information. We utilized a Geographic Information System for the construction and visualization of a malaria vulnerability index and its integration into a spatially explicit malaria risk map. The spatial pattern of malaria risk was very heterogeneous across the country. Malaria risk was higher in Mainland areas than in Zanzibar, which is a result of differences in both malaria entomological inoculation rate and prevailing vulnerabilities. Areas of high malaria risk were identified in the southeastern part of the country, as well as in two distinct "hotspots" in the northwestern part of the country bordering Lake Victoria, while concentrations of high malaria vulnerability seem to occur in the northwestern, western, and southeastern parts of the mainland. Results were visualized using both 10×10 km(2) grids and subnational administrative units. The presented approach makes an important contribution toward a decision support tool. By decomposing malaria risk into its components, the approach offers evidence on which factors could be targeted for reducing malaria risk and vulnerability to the disease. Ultimately, results offer relevant information for place-based intervention planning and more effective spatial allocation of resources.

Developing a java android application of KMV-Merton default rate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Norliza Muhamad; Anuar, Aini Hayati; Isa, Norsyaheeda Natasha; Zulkafli, Sharifah Nursyuhada Syed; Sapini, Muhamad Luqman

2017-11-01

This paper presents a developed java android application for KMV-Merton model in predicting the defaut rate of a firm. Predicting default rate is essential in the risk management area as default risk can be immediately transmitted from one entity to another entity. This is the reason default risk is known as a global risk. Although there are several efforts, instruments and methods used to manage the risk, it is said to be insufficient. To the best of our knowledge, there has been limited innovation in developing the default risk mathematical model into a mobile application. Therefore, through this study, default risk is predicted quantitatively using the KMV-Merton model. The KMV-Merton model has been integrated in the form of java program using the Android Studio Software. The developed java android application is tested by predicting the levels of default risk of the three different rated companies. It is found that the levels of default risk are equivalent to the ratings of the respective companies. This shows that the default rate predicted by the KMV-Merton model using the developed java android application can be a significant tool to the risk mangement field. The developed java android application grants users an alternative to predict level of default risk within less procedure.

Cyberpark 2000: Protected Areas Management Pilot Project. Satellite time series vegetation monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteleone, M.; Lanorte, A.; Lasaponara, R.

2009-04-01

Cyberpark 2000 is a project funded by the UE Regional Operating Program of the Apulia Region (2000-2006). The main objective of the Cyberpark 2000 project is to develop a new assessment model for the management and monitoring of protected areas in Foggia Province (Apulia Region) based on Information and Communication Technologies. The results herein described are placed inside the research activities finalized to develop an environmental monitoring system knowledge based on the use of satellite time series. This study include: - A- satellite time series of high spatial resolution data for supporting the analysis of fire static risk factors through land use mapping and spectral/quantitative characterization of vegetation fuels; - B- satellite time series of MODIS for supporting fire dynamic risk evaluation of study area - Integrated fire detection by using thermal imaging cameras placed on panoramic view-points; - C - integrated high spatial and high temporal satellite time series for supporting studies in change detection factors or anomalies in vegetation covers; - D - satellite time-series for monitoring: (i) post fire vegetation recovery and (ii) spatio/temporal vegetation dynamics in unburned and burned vegetation covers.

Adaption to Extreme Rainfall with Open Urban Drainage System: An Integrated Hydrological Cost-Benefit Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2013-03-01

This paper presents a cross-disciplinary framework for assessment of climate change adaptation to increased precipitation extremes considering pluvial flood risk as well as additional environmental services provided by some of the adaptation options. The ability of adaptation alternatives to cope with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas. The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental amenity effects, an integration of open drainage basins in urban recreational areas is likely the best adaptation strategy, followed by pipe enlargement and local infiltration strategies. All three were improvements compared to the fourth strategy of no measures taken.

Adaption to extreme rainfall with open urban drainage system: an integrated hydrological cost-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2013-03-01

This paper presents a cross-disciplinary framework for assessment of climate change adaptation to increased precipitation extremes considering pluvial flood risk as well as additional environmental services provided by some of the adaptation options. The ability of adaptation alternatives to cope with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas. The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental amenity effects, an integration of open drainage basins in urban recreational areas is likely the best adaptation strategy, followed by pipe enlargement and local infiltration strategies. All three were improvements compared to the fourth strategy of no measures taken.

Genetic and environmental determinants of violence risk in psychotic disorders: a multivariate quantitative genetic study of 1.8 million Swedish twins and siblings.

PubMed

Sariaslan, A; Larsson, H; Fazel, S

2016-09-01

Patients diagnosed with psychotic disorders (for example, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) have elevated risks of committing violent acts, particularly if they are comorbid with substance misuse. Despite recent insights from quantitative and molecular genetic studies demonstrating considerable pleiotropy in the genetic architecture of these phenotypes, there is currently a lack of large-scale studies that have specifically examined the aetiological links between psychotic disorders and violence. Using a sample of all Swedish individuals born between 1958 and 1989 (n=3 332 101), we identified a total of 923 259 twin-sibling pairs. Patients were identified using the National Patient Register using validated algorithms based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 8-10. Univariate quantitative genetic models revealed that all phenotypes (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, substance misuse, and violent crime) were highly heritable (h(2)=53-71%). Multivariate models further revealed that schizophrenia was a stronger predictor of violence (r=0.32; 95% confidence interval: 0.30-0.33) than bipolar disorder (r=0.23; 0.21-0.25), and large proportions (51-67%) of these phenotypic correlations were explained by genetic factors shared between each disorder, substance misuse, and violence. Importantly, we found that genetic influences that were unrelated to substance misuse explained approximately a fifth (21%; 20-22%) of the correlation with violent criminality in bipolar disorder but none of the same correlation in schizophrenia (Pbipolar disorder<0.001; Pschizophrenia=0.55). These findings highlight the problems of not disentangling common and unique sources of covariance across genetically similar phenotypes as the latter sources may include aetiologically important clues. Clinically, these findings underline the importance of assessing risk of different phenotypes together and integrating interventions for psychiatric disorders, substance misuse, and violence.

Integrated approach for confidence-enhanced quantitative analysis of herbal medicines, Cistanche salsa as a case.

PubMed

Liu, Wenjing; Song, Qingqing; Yan, Yu; Liu, Yao; Li, Peng; Wang, Yitao; Tu, Pengfei; Song, Yuelin; Li, Jun

2018-08-03

Although far away from perfect, it is practical to assess the quality of a given herbal medicine (HM) through simultaneous determination of a panel of components. However, the confidences of the quantitative outcomes from LC-MS/MS platform risk several technical barriers, such as chemical degradation, polarity range, concentration span, and identity misrecognition. Herein, we made an attempt to circumvent these obstacles by integrating several fit-for-purpose techniques, including online extraction (OLE), serially coupled reversed phase LC-hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (RPLC-HILIC), tailored multiple reaction monitoring (MRM), and relative response vs. collision energy curve (RRCEC) matching. Confidence-enhanced quantitative analysis of Cistanche salsa (Csa), a well-known psammophytic species and tonic herbal medicine, was conducted as a proof-of-concept. OLE module was deployed to prohibit chemical degradation, in particular E/Z-configuration transformation for phenylethanoid glycosides. Satisfactory retention took place for each analyte regardless of polarity because of successive passing through RPLC and HILIC columns. Optimum parameters for the minor components, at the meanwhile of inferior ones for the abundant ingredients, ensured the locations of all contents in the linear ranges. The unequivocal assignment of the captured signals was achieved by matching retention times, ion transitions, and more importantly, RRCECs between authentic compounds and suspect peaks. Diverse validation assays demonstrated the newly developed method to be reliable. Particularly, the distribution of mannitol rather than galactitol was disclosed although these isomers showed identical retention time and ion transitions. The contents of 21 compounds-of-interest were definitively determined in Csa as well as two analogous species, and the quantitative patterns exerted great variations among not only different species but different Csa samples. Together, the fortification of OLE-RPLC-HILIC-tailored MRM with RRCEC matching could fully address the demands from confidence-enhanced quantitative analysis of HMs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis for veterinary biologicals released into the environment.

PubMed

Silva, S V; Samagh, B S; Morley, R S

1995-12-01

All veterinary biologicals licensed in Canada must be shown to be pure, potent, safe and effective. A risk-based approach is used to evaluate the safety of all biologicals, whether produced by conventional methods or by molecular biological techniques. Traditionally, qualitative risk assessment methods have been used for this purpose. More recently, quantitative risk assessment has become available for complex issues. The quantitative risk assessment method uses "scenario tree analysis' to predict the likelihood of various outcomes and their respective impacts. The authors describe the quantitative risk assessment approach which is used within the broader context of risk analysis (i.e. risk assessment, risk management and risk communication) to develop recommendations for the field release of veterinary biologicals. The general regulatory framework for the licensing of veterinary biologicals in Canada is also presented.

An assessment of the risk of foreign animal disease introduction into the United States of America through garbage from Alaskan cruise ships.

PubMed

McElvaine, M D; McDowell, R M; Fite, R W; Miller, L

1993-12-01

The United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) has been exploring methods of quantitative risk assessment to support decision-making, provide risk management options and identify research needs. With current changes in world trade, regulatory decisions must have a scientific basis which is transparent, consistent, documentable and defensible. These quantitative risk assessment methods are described in an accompanying paper in this issue. In the present article, the authors provide an illustration by presenting an application of these methods. Prior to proposing changes in regulations, USDA officials requested an assessment of the risk of introduction of foreign animal disease to the United States of America through garbage from Alaskan cruise ships. The risk assessment team used a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate this question. Quantitative risk assessment methods were used to estimate the amount of materials of foreign origin being sent to Alaskan landfills. This application of quantitative risk assessment illustrates the flexibility of the methods in addressing specific questions. By applying these methods, specific areas were identified where more scientific information and research were needed. Even with limited information, the risk assessment provided APHIS management with a scientific basis for a regulatory decision.

Evaluating a novel Integrated Community of Care (ICoC) for patients from an urbanised low-income community in Singapore using the participatory action research (PAR) methodology: a study protocol.

PubMed

Low, Lian Leng; Maulod, Adlina; Lee, Kheng Hock

2017-10-08

Poorer health outcomes and disproportionate healthcare use in socioeconomically disadvantaged patients is well established. However, there is sparse literature on effective integrated care interventions that specifically target these high-risk individuals. The Integrated Community of Care (ICoC) is a novel care model that integrates hospital-based transitional care with health and social care in the community for high-risk individuals living in socially deprived communities. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the ICoC in reducing acute hospital use and investigate the implementation process and its effects on clinical outcomes using a mixed-methods participatory action research (PAR) approach. This is a single-centre prospective, controlled, observational study performed in the SingHealth Regional Health System. A total of 250 eligible patients from an urbanised low-income community in Singapore will be enrolled during their index hospitalisation. Our PAR model combines two research components: quantitative and qualitative, at different phases of the intervention. Outcomes of acute hospital use and health-related quality of life are compared with controls, at 30 days and 1 year. The qualitative study aims at developing a more context-specific social ecological model of health behaviour. This model will identify how influences within one's social environment: individual, interpersonal, organisational, community and policy factors affect people's experiences and behaviours during care transitions from hospital to home. Knowledge on the operational aspects of ICoC will enrich our evidence-based strategies to understand the impact of the ICoC. The blending of qualitative and quantitative mixed methods recognises the dynamic implementation processes as well as the complex and evolving needs of community stakeholders in shaping outcomes. Ethics approval was granted by the SingHealth Centralised Institutional Review Board (CIRB 2015/2277). The findings from this study will be disseminated by publications in peer-reviewed journals, scientific meetings and presentations to government policy-makers. NCT02678273. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Evaluating a novel Integrated Community of Care (ICoC) for patients from an urbanised low-income community in Singapore using the participatory action research (PAR) methodology: a study protocol

PubMed Central

Maulod, Adlina; Lee, Kheng Hock

2017-01-01

Introduction Poorer health outcomes and disproportionate healthcare use in socioeconomically disadvantaged patients is well established. However, there is sparse literature on effective integrated care interventions that specifically target these high-risk individuals. The Integrated Community of Care (ICoC) is a novel care model that integrates hospital-based transitional care with health and social care in the community for high-risk individuals living in socially deprived communities. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the ICoC in reducing acute hospital use and investigate the implementation process and its effects on clinical outcomes using a mixed-methods participatory action research (PAR) approach. Methods and analysis This is a single-centre prospective, controlled, observational study performed in the SingHealth Regional Health System. A total of 250 eligible patients from an urbanised low-income community in Singapore will be enrolled during their index hospitalisation. Our PAR model combines two research components: quantitative and qualitative, at different phases of the intervention. Outcomes of acute hospital use and health-related quality of life are compared with controls, at 30 days and 1 year. The qualitative study aims at developing a more context-specific social ecological model of health behaviour. This model will identify how influences within one’s social environment: individual, interpersonal, organisational, community and policy factors affect people’s experiences and behaviours during care transitions from hospital to home. Knowledge on the operational aspects of ICoC will enrich our evidence-based strategies to understand the impact of the ICoC. The blending of qualitative and quantitative mixed methods recognises the dynamic implementation processes as well as the complex and evolving needs of community stakeholders in shaping outcomes. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval was granted by the SingHealth Centralised Institutional Review Board (CIRB 2015/2277). The findings from this study will be disseminated by publications in peer-reviewed journals, scientific meetings and presentations to government policy-makers. Trial registration number NCT02678273 PMID:28993391

The NASA Space Radiation Research Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.

2006-01-01

We present a comprehensive overview of the NASA Space Radiation Research Program. This program combines basic research on the mechanisms of radiobiological action relevant for improving knowledge of the risks of cancer, central nervous system and other possible degenerative tissue effects, and acute radiation syndromes from space radiation. The keystones of the NASA Program are five NASA Specialized Center's of Research (NSCOR) investigating space radiation risks. Other research is carried out through peer-reviewed individual investigations and in collaboration with the US Department of Energies Low-Dose Research Program. The Space Radiation Research Program has established the Risk Assessment Project to integrate data from the NSCOR s and other peer-reviewed research into quantitative projection models with the goals of steering research into data and scientific breakthroughs that will reduce the uncertainties in current risk projections and developing the scientific knowledge needed for future individual risk assessment approaches and biological countermeasure assessments or design. The NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at Brookhaven National Laboratory was created by the Program to simulate space radiation on the ground in support of the above research programs. New results from NSRL will be described.

A Practical Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Tool for Weighing ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Past weight-of-evidence frameworks for adverse ecological effects have provided soft-scoring procedures for judgments based on the quality and measured attributes of evidence. Here, we provide a flexible probabilistic structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations. Probabilistic approaches can provide both a quantitative weighing of lines of evidence and methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty. The current modeling structure wasdeveloped for propagating uncertainties in measured endpoints and their influence on the plausibility of adverse effects. To illustrate the approach, we apply the model framework to the sediment quality triad using example lines of evidence for sediment chemistry measurements, bioassay results, and in situ infauna diversity of benthic communities using a simplified hypothetical case study. We then combine the three lines evidence and evaluate sensitivity to the input parameters, and show how uncertainties are propagated and how additional information can be incorporated to rapidly update the probability of impacts. The developed network model can be expanded to accommodate additional lines of evidence, variables and states of importance, and different types of uncertainties in the lines of evidence including spatial and temporal as well as measurement errors. We provide a flexible Bayesian network structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations

Screening of sustainable groundwater sources for integration into a regional drought-prone water supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stigter, T. Y.; Monteiro, J. P.; Nunes, L. M.; Vieira, J.; Cunha, M. C.; Ribeiro, L.; Nascimento, J.; Lucas, H.

2009-01-01

This paper reports on the qualitative and quantitative screening of groundwater sources for integration into the public water supply system of the Algarve, Portugal. The results are employed in a decision support system currently under development for an integrated water resources management scheme in the region. Such a scheme is crucial for several reasons, including the extreme seasonal and annual variations in rainfall, the effect of climate change on more frequent and long-lasting droughts, the continuously increasing water demand and the high risk of a single-source water supply policy. The latter was revealed during the severe drought of 2004 and 2005, when surface reservoirs were depleted and the regional water demand could not be met, despite the drilling of emergency wells. For screening and selection, quantitative criteria are based on aquifer properties and well yields, whereas qualitative criteria are defined by water quality indices. These reflect the well's degree of violation of drinking water standards for different sets of variables, including toxicity parameters, nitrate and chloride, iron and manganese and microbiological parameters. Results indicate the current availability of at least 1100 l s-1 of high quality groundwater (55% of the regional demand), requiring only disinfection (900 l s-1) or basic treatment, prior to human consumption. These groundwater withdrawals are sustainable when compared to mean annual recharge, considering that at least 40% is preserved for ecological demands. A more accurate and comprehensive analysis of sustainability is performed with the help of steady-state and transient groundwater flow simulations, which account for aquifer geometry, boundary conditions, recharge and discharge rates, pumping activity and seasonality. They permit an advanced analysis of present and future scenarios and show that increasing water demands and decreasing rainfall will make the water supply system extremely vulnerable, with a high risk of groundwater salinization and ecosystem degradation.

Screening of sustainable groundwater sources for integration into a regional drought-prone water supply system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stigter, T. Y.; Monteiro, J. P.; Nunes, L. M.; Vieira, J.; Cunha, M. C.; Ribeiro, L.; Nascimento, J.; Lucas, H.

2009-07-01

This paper reports on the qualitative and quantitative screening of groundwater sources for integration into the public water supply system of the Algarve, Portugal. The results are employed in a decision support system currently under development for an integrated water resources management scheme in the region. Such a scheme is crucial for several reasons, including the extreme seasonal and annual variations in rainfall, the effect of climate change on more frequent and long-lasting droughts, the continuously increasing water demand and the high risk of a single-source water supply policy. The latter was revealed during the severe drought of 2004 and 2005, when surface reservoirs were depleted and the regional water demand could not be met, despite the drilling of emergency wells. For screening and selection, quantitative criteria are based on aquifer properties and well yields, whereas qualitative criteria are defined by water quality indices. These reflect the well's degree of violation of drinking water standards for different sets of variables, including toxicity parameters, nitrate and chloride, iron and manganese and microbiological parameters. Results indicate the current availability of at least 1100 l s-1 of high quality groundwater (55% of the regional demand), requiring only disinfection (900 l s-1) or basic treatment, prior to human consumption. These groundwater withdrawals are sustainable when compared to mean annual recharge, considering that at least 40% is preserved for ecological demands. A more accurate and comprehensive analysis of sustainability is performed with the help of steady-state and transient groundwater flow simulations, which account for aquifer geometry, boundary conditions, recharge and discharge rates, pumping activity and seasonality. They permit an advanced analysis of present and future scenarios and show that increasing water demands and decreasing rainfall will make the water supply system extremely vulnerable, with a high risk of groundwater salinization and ecosystem degradation.

An Evaluation of the Implementation of Maternal Obesity Pathways of Care: A Mixed Methods Study with Data Integration

PubMed Central

Heslehurst, Nicola; Dinsdale, Sarah; Sedgewick, Gillian; Simpson, Helen; Sen, Seema; Summerbell, Carolyn Dawn; Rankin, Judith

2015-01-01

Objectives Maternal obesity has multiple associated risks and requires substantial intervention. This research evaluated the implementation of maternal obesity care pathways from multiple stakeholder perspectives. Study Design A simultaneous mixed methods model with data integration was used. Three component studies were given equal priority. 1: Semi-structured qualitative interviews explored obese pregnant women’s experiences of being on the pathways. 2: A quantitative and qualitative postal survey explored healthcare professionals’ experiences of delivering the pathways. 3: A case note audit quantitatively assessed pathway compliance. Data were integrated using following a thread and convergence coding matrix methods to search for agreement and disagreement between studies. Results Study 1: Four themes were identified: women’s overall (positive and negative) views of the pathways; knowledge and understanding of the pathways; views on clinical and weight management advice and support; and views on the information leaflet. Key results included positive views of receiving additional clinical care, negative experiences of risk communication, and weight management support was considered a priority. Study 2: Healthcare professionals felt the pathways were worthwhile, facilitated good practice, and increased confidence. Training was consistently identified as being required. Healthcare professionals predominantly focussed on women’s response to sensitive obesity communication. Study 3: There was good compliance with antenatal clinical interventions. However, there was poor compliance with public health and postnatal interventions. There were some strong areas of agreement between component studies which can inform future development of the pathways. However, disagreement between studies included a lack of shared priorities between healthcare professionals and women, different perspectives on communication issues, and different perspectives on women’s prioritisation of weight management. Conclusion The differences between healthcare professionals’ and women’s priorities and perspectives are important factors to consider when developing care pathways. Shared perspectives could help facilitate more effective implementation of the pathway interventions that have poor compliance. PMID:26018338

A refined ecological risk assessment for California red-legged frog, Delta smelt, and California tiger salamander exposed to malathion.

PubMed

Clemow, Yvonne H; Manning, Gillian E; Breton, Roger L; Winchell, Michael F; Padilla, Lauren; Rodney, Sara I; Hanzas, John P; Estes, Tammara L; Budreski, Katherine; Toth, Brent N; Hill, Katie L; Priest, Colleen D; Teed, R Scott; Knopper, Loren D; Moore, Dwayne Rj; Stone, Christopher T; Whatling, Paul

2018-03-01

The California red-legged frog (CRLF), Delta smelt (DS), and California tiger salamander (CTS) are 3 species listed under the United States Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA), all of which inhabit aquatic ecosystems in California. The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has conducted deterministic screening-level risk assessments for these species potentially exposed to malathion, an organophosphorus insecticide and acaricide. Results from our screening-level analyses identified potential risk of direct effects to DS as well as indirect effects to all 3 species via reduction in prey. Accordingly, for those species and scenarios in which risk was identified at the screening level, we conducted a refined probabilistic risk assessment for CRLF, DS, and CTS. The refined ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted using best available data and approaches, as recommended by the 2013 National Research Council (NRC) report "Assessing Risks to Endangered and Threatened Species from Pesticides." Refined aquatic exposure models including the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), the Vegetative Filter Strip Modeling System (VFSMOD), the Variable Volume Water Model (VVWM), the Exposure Analysis Modeling System (EXAMS), and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used to generate estimated exposure concentrations (EECs) for malathion based on worst-case scenarios in California. Refined effects analyses involved developing concentration-response curves for fish and species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for fish and aquatic invertebrates. Quantitative risk curves, field and mesocosm studies, surface-water monitoring data, and incident reports were considered in a weight-of-evidence approach. Currently, labeled uses of malathion are not expected to result in direct effects to CRLF, DS or CTS, or indirect effects due to effects on fish and invertebrate prey. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:224-239. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Reliability and safety, and the risk of construction damage in mining areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skrzypczak, Izabela; Kogut, Janusz P.; Kokoszka, Wanda; Oleniacz, Grzegorz

2018-04-01

This article concerns the reliability and safety of building structures in mining areas, with a particular emphasis on the quantitative risk analysis of buildings. The issues of threat assessment and risk estimation, in the design of facilities in mining exploitation areas, are presented here, indicating the difficulties and ambiguities associated with their quantification and quantitative analysis. This article presents the concept of quantitative risk assessment of the impact of mining exploitation, in accordance with ISO 13824 [1]. The risk analysis is illustrated through an example of a construction located within an area affected by mining exploitation.

SZDB: A Database for Schizophrenia Genetic Research

PubMed Central

Wu, Yong; Yao, Yong-Gang

2017-01-01

Abstract Schizophrenia (SZ) is a debilitating brain disorder with a complex genetic architecture. Genetic studies, especially recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS), have identified multiple variants (loci) conferring risk to SZ. However, how to efficiently extract meaningful biological information from bulk genetic findings of SZ remains a major challenge. There is a pressing need to integrate multiple layers of data from various sources, eg, genetic findings from GWAS, copy number variations (CNVs), association and linkage studies, gene expression, protein–protein interaction (PPI), co-expression, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL), and Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE) data, to provide a comprehensive resource to facilitate the translation of genetic findings into SZ molecular diagnosis and mechanism study. Here we developed the SZDB database (http://www.szdb.org/), a comprehensive resource for SZ research. SZ genetic data, gene expression data, network-based data, brain eQTL data, and SNP function annotation information were systematically extracted, curated and deposited in SZDB. In-depth analyses and systematic integration were performed to identify top prioritized SZ genes and enriched pathways. Multiple types of data from various layers of SZ research were systematically integrated and deposited in SZDB. In-depth data analyses and integration identified top prioritized SZ genes and enriched pathways. We further showed that genes implicated in SZ are highly co-expressed in human brain and proteins encoded by the prioritized SZ risk genes are significantly interacted. The user-friendly SZDB provides high-confidence candidate variants and genes for further functional characterization. More important, SZDB provides convenient online tools for data search and browse, data integration, and customized data analyses. PMID:27451428

Risk analysis of hematopoietic stem cell transplant process: failure mode, effect, and criticality analysis and hazard analysis critical control point methods integration based on guidelines to good manufacturing practice for medicinal product ANNEX 20 (February 2008).

PubMed

Gianassi, S; Bisin, S; Bindi, B; Spitaleri, I; Bambi, F

2010-01-01

The collection and handling of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) must meet high quality requirements. An integrated Quality Risk Management can help to identify and contain potential risks related to HSC production. Risk analysis techniques allow one to "weigh" identified hazards, considering the seriousness of their effects, frequency, and detectability, seeking to prevent the most harmful hazards. The Hazard Analysis Critical Point, recognized as the most appropriate technique to identify risks associated with physical, chemical, and biological hazards for cellular products, consists of classifying finished product specifications and limits of acceptability, identifying all off-specifications, defining activities that can cause them, and finally establishing both a monitoring system for each Critical Control Point and corrective actions for deviations. The severity of possible effects on patients, as well as the occurrence and detectability of critical parameters, are measured on quantitative scales (Risk Priority Number [RPN]). Risk analysis was performed with this technique on manipulation process of HPC performed at our blood center. The data analysis showed that hazards with higher values of RPN with greater impact on the process are loss of dose and tracking; technical skills of operators and manual transcription of data were the most critical parameters. Problems related to operator skills are handled by defining targeted training programs, while other critical parameters can be mitigated with the use of continuous control systems. The blood center management software was completed by a labeling system with forms designed to be in compliance with standards in force and by starting implementation of a cryopreservation management module. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methodological exemplar of integrating quantitative and qualitative evidence - supportive care for men with prostate cancer: what are the most important components?

PubMed

Huntley, Alyson L; King, Anna J L; Moore, Theresa H M; Paterson, Charlotte; Persad, Raj; Sharp, Debbie; Evans, Maggie

2017-01-01

To present a methodological exemplar of integrating findings from a quantitative and qualitative review on the same topic to provide insight into components of care that contribute to supportive care that is acceptable to men with prostate cancer. Men with prostate cancer are likely to live a long time with the disease, experience side effects from treatment and therefore have ongoing supportive care needs. Quantitative and qualitative reviews have been published but the findings have yet to be integrated. Integration of quantitative and qualitative synthesized evidence. Two previously published systematic reviews. Synthesized evidence on supportive care for men with prostate cancer was integrated from two previously published systematic reviews: a narrative quantitative review and a qualitative review with thematic synthesis. These two streams of synthesized evidence were synthesized using concurrent narrative summary. Data from both reviews were used to develop a set of propositions from which a summary of components of care that likely to contribute to supportive care acceptable to men with prostate cancer were identified. Nine propositions were developed which covered men's supportive care focusing on the role of health professionals. These propositions were used to compose nine components of care likely to lead to supportive care that is acceptable to men with prostate cancer. Some of these components are no/low cost such as developing a more empathic personalized approach, but more specific approaches need further investigation in randomized controlled trials, for example, online support. This methodological exemplar demonstrates the integration of quantitative and qualitative synthesized data to determine components of care likely to lead to provision of supportive care acceptable to men with prostate cancer. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

PubMed

Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

2017-08-01

Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Quantitative analysis of lentiviral transgene expression in mice over seven generations.

PubMed

Wang, Yong; Song, Yong-tao; Liu, Qin; Liu, Cang'e; Wang, Lu-lu; Liu, Yu; Zhou, Xiao-yang; Wu, Jun; Wei, Hong

2010-10-01

Lentiviral transgenesis is now recognized as an extremely efficient and cost-effective method to produce transgenic animals. Transgenes delivered by lentiviral vectors exhibited inheritable expression in many species including those which are refractory to genetic modification such as non-human primates. However, epigenetic modification was frequently observed in lentiviral integrants, and transgene expression found to be inversely correlated with methylation density. Recent data showed that about one-third lentiviral integrants exhibited hypermethylation and low expression, but did not demonstrate whether those integrants with high expression could remain constant expression and hypomethylated during long term germline transmission. In this study, using lentiviral eGFP transgenic mice as the experimental animals, lentiviral eGFP expression levels and its integrant numbers in genome were quantitatively analyzed by fluorescent quantitative polymerase-chain reaction (FQ-PCR), using the house-keeping gene ribosomal protein S18 (Rps18) and the single copy gene fatty acid binding protein of the intestine (Fabpi) as the internal controls respectively. The methylation densities of the integrants were quantitatively analyzed by bisulfite sequencing. We found that the lentiviral integrants with high expression exhibited a relative constant expression level per integrant over at least seven generations. Besides, the individuals containing these integrants exhibited eGFP expression levels which were positively and almost linearly correlated with the integrant numbers in their genomes, suggesting that no remarkable position effect on transgene expression of the integrants analyzed was observed. In addition, over seven generations the methylation density of these integrants did not increase, but rather decreased remarkably, indicating that these high expressing integrants were not subjected to de novo methylation during at least seven generations of germline transmission. Taken together, these data suggested that transgenic lines with long term stable expression and no position effect can be established by lentiviral transgenesis.

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

PubMed

Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

2012-01-01

Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The concept of risk and its estimation].

PubMed

Zocchetti, C; Della Foglia, M; Colombi, A

1996-01-01

The concept of risk, in relation to human health, is a topic of primary interest for occupational health professionals. A new legislation recently established in Italy (626/94) according to European Community directives in the field of Preventive Medicine, called attention to this topic, and in particular to risk assessment and evaluation. Motivated by this context and by the impression that the concept of risk is frequently misunderstood, the present paper has two aims: the identification of the different meanings of the term "risk" in the new Italian legislation and the critical discussion of some commonly used definitions; and the proposal of a general definition, with the specification of a mathematical expression for quantitative risk estimation. The term risk (and risk estimation, assessment, or evaluation) has mainly referred to three different contexts: hazard identification, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects occurrence. Unfortunately, there are contexts in the legislation in which it is difficult to identify the true meaning of the term. This might cause equivocal interpretations and erroneous applications of the law because hazard evaluation, exposure assessment, and adverse health effects identification are completely different topics that require integrated but distinct approaches to risk management. As far as a quantitative definition of risk is of concern, we suggest an algorithm which connects the three basic risk elements (hazard, exposure, adverse health effects) by means of their probabilities of occurrence: the probability of being exposed (to a definite dose) given that a specific hazard is present (Pr(e[symbol: see text]p)), and the probability of occurrence of an adverse health effect as a consequence of that exposure (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)). Using these quantitative components, risk can be defined as a sequence of measurable events that starts with hazard identification and terminates with disease occurrence; therefore, the following formal definition of risk is proposed: the probability of occurrence, in a given period of time, of an adverse health effect as a consequence of the existence of an hazard. In formula: R(d[symbol: see text]p) = Pr(e[symbol: see text]p) x Pr(d[symbol: see text]e). While Pr(e[symbol: see text]p) (exposure given hazard) must be evaluated in the situation under study, two alternatives exist for the estimation of the occurrence of adverse health effects (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e)): a "direct" estimation of the damage (Pr(d[symbol: see text]e) through formal epidemiologic studies conducted in the situation under observation; and an "indirect" estimation of Pr(d[symbol: see text]e) using information taken from the scientific literature (epidemiologic evaluations, dose-response relationships, extrapolations, ...). Both conditions are presented along with their respective advantages, disadvantages, and uncertainties. The usefulness of the proposed algorithm is discussed with respect to commonly used applications of risk assessment in occupational medicine; the relevance of time for risk estimation (both in the term of duration of observation, duration of exposure, and latency of effect) is briefly explained; and how the proposed algorithm takes into account (in terms of prevention and public health) both the etiologic relevance of the exposure and the consequences of exposure removal is highlighted. As a last comment, it is suggested that the diffuse application of good work practices (technical, behavioral, organizational, ...), or the exhaustive use of check lists, can be relevant in terms of improvement of prevention efficacy, but does not represent any quantitative procedure of risk assessment which, in any circumstance, must be considered the elective approach to adverse health effect prevention.

Quantitative risk assessment using empirical vulnerability functions from debris flow event reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, Byron Quan; Blahut, Jan; Camera, Corrado; van Westen, Cees; Sterlacchini, Simone; Apuani, Tiziana; Akbas, Sami

2010-05-01

For a quantitative risk assessment framework it is essential to assess not only the hazardous process itself but to perform an analysis of their consequences. This quantitative assessment should include the expected monetary losses as the product of the probability of occurrence of a hazard with a given magnitude and its vulnerability. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and risk is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results are then applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. The risk assessment has been conducted in the Valtellina Valley, a typical Italian alpine valley lying in northern Italy (Lombardy Region). On 13th July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of valley between Morbegno and Berbenno. One of the largest debris flows occurred in Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. Also inside the Valtellina valley, between the 22nd and the 23rd of May 1983, two debris flows happened in Tresenda (Teglio municipality), causing casualties and considerable economic damages. On the same location, during the 26th of November 2002, another debris flow occurred that caused significant damage. For the quantification of a new scenario, the outcome results obtained from the event of Selvetta were applied in Tresenda. The Selvetta and Tresenda event were modelled with the FLO2D program. FLO2D is an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The significance of calculated values of pressure and velocity were investigated in terms of the resulting damage to the affected buildings. The physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability, which is defined as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Two different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained, which are functions of debris flow velocity and pressure, respectively. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated.

Effect of season and age on Indian red jungle fowl (Gallus gallus murghi) semen characteristics: A 4-year retrospective study.

PubMed

Rakha, B A; Ansari, M S; Akhter, S; Blesbois, E

2017-09-01

The reproductive potential of the adult males is expected to vary with age/season and largely differ not only in closely related avian species but even in subspecies, breeds and/or strains of the same species. Thus, it is pre-requisite to have knowledge of seminal parameters to achieve maximum production potential of at-risk species for ex situ in vitro conservation programs. A 4-year study was designed to evaluate the effect of age and season (spring, summer, autumn and winter) on semen characteristics of Indian red jungle fowl (Gallus gallus murghi) in a retrospective manner. Semen ejaculates (n = 1148) were regularly collected from eight adult cocks 6 to 54 months of age. Quantitative and qualitative semen parameters viz; volume (μL), concentration (1 × 10 9  mL -1 ), total sperm number per ejaculate (1 × 10 9  mL -1 ), motility (%), viability (%), plasma membrane integrity (%), acrosome integrity (%) and semen quality factor were recorded. A chronological increasing trend with age of most sperm quantitative and qualitative traits (semen volume, sperm concentration, total sperm number per ejaculate, plasma membrane integrity, viability, acrosomal integrity and semen quality factor) was observed. The highest values were observed at four years of age (P < 0.05) with the exception of sperm motility that was not affected by the age. Spring was the best season for sperm parameters viz; volume, motility, plasma membrane integrity, viability and acrosomal integrity (P < 0.05), however a remarkable sperm production was noticed all over the year. It is concluded that Indian red jungle fowl exhibits an evolution of sperm production that greatly differs in many points from other fowl sub-species. It is suggested that semen ejaculates of highest quality achieved for semen banking at the age of four year in the spring season. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Actor modelling and its contribution to the development of integrative strategies for management of pharmaceuticals in drinking water.

PubMed

Titz, Alexandra; Döll, Petra

2009-02-01

Widespread presence of human pharmaceuticals in water resources across the globe is documented. While some, but certainly not enough, research on the occurrence, fate and effect of pharmaceuticals in water resources has been carried out, a holistic risk management strategy is missing. The transdisciplinary research project "start" aimed to develop an integrative strategy by the participation of experts representing key actors in the problem field "pharmaceuticals in drinking water". In this paper, we describe a novel modelling method, actor modelling with the semi-quantitative software DANA (Dynamic Actor Network Analysis), and its application in support of identifying an integrative risk management strategy. Based on the individual perceptions of different actors, the approach allows the identification of optimal strategies. Actors' perceptions were elicited by participatory model building and interviews, and were then modelled in perception graphs. Actor modelling indicated that an integrative strategy that targets environmentally-responsible prescription, therapy, and disposal of pharmaceuticals on one hand, and the development of environmentally-friendly pharmaceuticals on the other hand, will likely be most effective for reducing the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in drinking water (at least in Germany where the study was performed). However, unlike most other actors, the pharmaceutical industry itself does not perceive that the production of environmentally-friendly pharmaceuticals is an action that helps to achieve its goals, but contends that continued development of highly active pharmaceutical ingredients will help to reduce the occurrence of pharmaceuticals in the water cycle. Investment in advanced waste or drinking water treatment is opposed by both the wastewater treatment company and the drinking water supplier, and is not mentioned as appropriate by the other actors. According to our experience, actor modelling is a useful method to suggest effective and realisable integrative risk management strategies in complex problem fields that involve many societal actors.

The new AP Physics exams: Integrating qualitative and quantitative reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elby, Andrew

2015-04-01

When physics instructors and education researchers emphasize the importance of integrating qualitative and quantitative reasoning in problem solving, they usually mean using those types of reasoning serially and separately: first students should analyze the physical situation qualitatively/conceptually to figure out the relevant equations, then they should process those equations quantitatively to generate a solution, and finally they should use qualitative reasoning to check that answer for plausibility (Heller, Keith, & Anderson, 1992). The new AP Physics 1 and 2 exams will, of course, reward this approach to problem solving. But one kind of free response question will demand and reward a further integration of qualitative and quantitative reasoning, namely mathematical modeling and sense-making--inventing new equations to capture a physical situation and focusing on proportionalities, inverse proportionalities, and other functional relations to infer what the equation ``says'' about the physical world. In this talk, I discuss examples of these qualitative-quantitative translation questions, highlighting how they differ from both standard quantitative and standard qualitative questions. I then discuss the kinds of modeling activities that can help AP and college students develop these skills and habits of mind.

Development and application of the adverse outcome pathway framework for understanding and predicting chronic toxicity: I. Challenges and research needs in ecotoxicology.

PubMed

Groh, Ksenia J; Carvalho, Raquel N; Chipman, James K; Denslow, Nancy D; Halder, Marlies; Murphy, Cheryl A; Roelofs, Dick; Rolaki, Alexandra; Schirmer, Kristin; Watanabe, Karen H

2015-02-01

To elucidate the effects of chemicals on populations of different species in the environment, efficient testing and modeling approaches are needed that consider multiple stressors and allow reliable extrapolation of responses across species. An adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is a concept that provides a framework for organizing knowledge about the progression of toxicity events across scales of biological organization that lead to adverse outcomes relevant for risk assessment. In this paper, we focus on exploring how the AOP concept can be used to guide research aimed at improving both our understanding of chronic toxicity, including delayed toxicity as well as epigenetic and transgenerational effects of chemicals, and our ability to predict adverse outcomes. A better understanding of the influence of subtle toxicity on individual and population fitness would support a broader integration of sublethal endpoints into risk assessment frameworks. Detailed mechanistic knowledge would facilitate the development of alternative testing methods as well as help prioritize higher tier toxicity testing. We argue that targeted development of AOPs supports both of these aspects by promoting the elucidation of molecular mechanisms and their contribution to relevant toxicity outcomes across biological scales. We further discuss information requirements and challenges in application of AOPs for chemical- and site-specific risk assessment and for extrapolation across species. We provide recommendations for potential extension of the AOP framework to incorporate information on exposure, toxicokinetics and situation-specific ecological contexts, and discuss common interfaces that can be employed to couple AOPs with computational modeling approaches and with evolutionary life history theory. The extended AOP framework can serve as a venue for integration of knowledge derived from various sources, including empirical data as well as molecular, quantitative and evolutionary-based models describing species responses to toxicants. This will allow a more efficient application of AOP knowledge for quantitative chemical- and site-specific risk assessment as well as for extrapolation across species in the future. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Criteria for quantitative and qualitative data integration: mixed-methods research methodology.

PubMed

Lee, Seonah; Smith, Carrol A M

2012-05-01

Many studies have emphasized the need and importance of a mixed-methods approach for evaluation of clinical information systems. However, those studies had no criteria to guide integration of multiple data sets. Integrating different data sets serves to actualize the paradigm that a mixed-methods approach argues; thus, we require criteria that provide the right direction to integrate quantitative and qualitative data. The first author used a set of criteria organized from a literature search for integration of multiple data sets from mixed-methods research. The purpose of this article was to reorganize the identified criteria. Through critical appraisal of the reasons for designing mixed-methods research, three criteria resulted: validation, complementarity, and discrepancy. In applying the criteria to empirical data of a previous mixed methods study, integration of quantitative and qualitative data was achieved in a systematic manner. It helped us obtain a better organized understanding of the results. The criteria of this article offer the potential to produce insightful analyses of mixed-methods evaluations of health information systems.

Human ex-vivo action potential model for pro-arrhythmia risk assessment.

PubMed

Page, Guy; Ratchada, Phachareeya; Miron, Yannick; Steiner, Guido; Ghetti, Andre; Miller, Paul E; Reynolds, Jack A; Wang, Ken; Greiter-Wilke, Andrea; Polonchuk, Liudmila; Traebert, Martin; Gintant, Gary A; Abi-Gerges, Najah

2016-01-01

While current S7B/E14 guidelines have succeeded in protecting patients from QT-prolonging drugs, the absence of a predictive paradigm identifying pro-arrhythmic risks has limited the development of valuable drug programs. We investigated if a human ex-vivo action potential (AP)-based model could provide a more predictive approach for assessing pro-arrhythmic risk in man. Human ventricular trabeculae from ethically consented organ donors were used to evaluate the effects of dofetilide, d,l-sotalol, quinidine, paracetamol and verapamil on AP duration (APD) and recognized pro-arrhythmia predictors (short-term variability of APD at 90% repolarization (STV(APD90)), triangulation (ADP90-APD30) and incidence of early afterdepolarizations at 1 and 2Hz to quantitatively identify the pro-arrhythmic risk. Each drug was blinded and tested separately with 3 concentrations in triplicate trabeculae from 5 hearts, with one vehicle time control per heart. Electrophysiological stability of the model was not affected by sequential applications of vehicle (0.1% dimethyl sulfoxide). Paracetamol and verapamil did not significantly alter anyone of the AP parameters and were classified as devoid of pro-arrhythmic risk. Dofetilide, d,l-sotalol and quinidine exhibited an increase in the manifestation of pro-arrhythmia markers. The model provided quantitative and actionable activity flags and the relatively low total variability in tissue response allowed for the identification of pro-arrhythmic signals. Power analysis indicated that a total of 6 trabeculae derived from 2 hearts are sufficient to identify drug-induced pro-arrhythmia. Thus, the human ex-vivo AP-based model provides an integrative translational assay assisting in shaping clinical development plans that could be used in conjunction with the new CiPA-proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human ex-vivo action potential model for pro-arrhythmia risk assessment

PubMed Central

Page, Guy; Ratchada, Phachareeya; Miron, Yannick; Steiner, Guido; Ghetti, Andre; Miller, Paul E; Reynolds, Jack A; Wang, Ken; Greiter-Wilke, Andrea; Polonchuk, Liudmila; Traebert, Martin; Gintant, Gary A; Abi-Gerges, Najah

2016-01-01

While current S7B/E14 guidelines have succeeded in protecting patients from QT-prolonging drugs, the absence of a predictive paradigm identifying pro-arrhythmic risks has limited the development of valuable drug programs. We investigated if a human ex-vivo action potential (AP)-based model could provide a more predictive approach for assessing pro-arrhythmic risk in man. Human ventricular trabeculae from ethically consented organ donors were used to evaluate the effects of dofetilide, d,l-sotalol, quinidine, paracetamol and verapamil on AP duration (APD) and recognized pro-arrhythmia predictors (short-term variability of APD at 90% repolarization (STV(APD90)), triangulation (ADP90-APD30) and incidence of early afterdepolarizations at 1 and 2 Hz to quantitatively identify the pro-arrhythmic risk. Each drug was blinded and tested separately with 3 concentrations in triplicate trabeculae from 5 hearts, with one vehicle time control per heart. Electrophysiological stability of the model was not affected by sequential applications of vehicle (0.1% dimethyl sulfoxide). Paracetamol and verapamil did not significantly alter anyone of the AP parameters and were classified as devoid of pro-arrhythmic risk. Dofetilide, d,l-sotalol and quinidine exhibited an increase in the manifestation of pro-arrhythmia markers. The model provided quantitative and actionable activity flags and the relatively low total variability in tissue response allowed for the identification of pro-arrhythmic signals. Power analysis indicated that a total of 6 trabeculae derived from 2 hearts are sufficient to identify drug-induced pro-arrhythmia. Thus, the human ex-vivo AP-based model provides an integrative translational assay assisting in shaping clinical development plans that could be used in conjunction with the new CiPA-proposed approach. PMID:27235787

Quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy green vegetables consumed at salad bars.

PubMed

Franz, E; Tromp, S O; Rijgersberg, H; van der Fels-Klerx, H J

2010-02-01

Fresh vegetables are increasingly recognized as a source of foodborne outbreaks in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and Listeria monocytogenes infection from consumption of leafy green vegetables in salad from salad bars in The Netherlands. Pathogen growth was modeled in Aladin (Agro Logistics Analysis and Design Instrument) using time-temperature profiles in the chilled supply chain and one particular restaurant with a salad bar. A second-order Monte Carlo risk assessment model was constructed (using @Risk) to estimate the public health effects. The temperature in the studied cold chain was well controlled below 5 degrees C. Growth of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella was minimal (17 and 15%, respectively). Growth of L. monocytogenes was considerably greater (194%). Based on first-order Monte Carlo simulations, the average number of cases per year in The Netherlands associated the consumption leafy greens in salads from salad bars was 166, 187, and 0.3 for E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella, and L. monocytogenes, respectively. The ranges of the average number of annual cases as estimated by second-order Monte Carlo simulation (with prevalence and number of visitors as uncertain variables) were 42 to 551 for E. coli O157:H7, 81 to 281 for Salmonella, and 0.1 to 0.9 for L. monocytogenes. This study included an integration of modeling pathogen growth in the supply chain of fresh leafy vegetables destined for restaurant salad bars using software designed to model and design logistics and modeling the public health effects using probabilistic risk assessment software.

Applying quantitative benefit-risk analysis to aid regulatory decision making in diagnostic imaging: methods, challenges, and opportunities.

PubMed

Agapova, Maria; Devine, Emily Beth; Bresnahan, Brian W; Higashi, Mitchell K; Garrison, Louis P

2014-09-01

Health agencies making regulatory marketing-authorization decisions use qualitative and quantitative approaches to assess expected benefits and expected risks associated with medical interventions. There is, however, no universal standard approach that regulatory agencies consistently use to conduct benefit-risk assessment (BRA) for pharmaceuticals or medical devices, including for imaging technologies. Economics, health services research, and health outcomes research use quantitative approaches to elicit preferences of stakeholders, identify priorities, and model health conditions and health intervention effects. Challenges to BRA in medical devices are outlined, highlighting additional barriers in radiology. Three quantitative methods--multi-criteria decision analysis, health outcomes modeling and stated-choice survey--are assessed using criteria that are important in balancing benefits and risks of medical devices and imaging technologies. To be useful in regulatory BRA, quantitative methods need to: aggregate multiple benefits and risks, incorporate qualitative considerations, account for uncertainty, and make clear whose preferences/priorities are being used. Each quantitative method performs differently across these criteria and little is known about how BRA estimates and conclusions vary by approach. While no specific quantitative method is likely to be the strongest in all of the important areas, quantitative methods may have a place in BRA of medical devices and radiology. Quantitative BRA approaches have been more widely applied in medicines, with fewer BRAs in devices. Despite substantial differences in characteristics of pharmaceuticals and devices, BRA methods may be as applicable to medical devices and imaging technologies as they are to pharmaceuticals. Further research to guide the development and selection of quantitative BRA methods for medical devices and imaging technologies is needed. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rapid Response Risk Assessment in New Project Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graber, Robert R.

2010-01-01

A capability for rapidly performing quantitative risk assessments has been developed by JSC Safety and Mission Assurance for use on project design trade studies early in the project life cycle, i.e., concept development through preliminary design phases. A risk assessment tool set has been developed consisting of interactive and integrated software modules that allow a user/project designer to assess the impact of alternative design or programmatic options on the probability of mission success or other risk metrics. The risk and design trade space includes interactive options for selecting parameters and/or metrics for numerous design characteristics including component reliability characteristics, functional redundancy levels, item or system technology readiness levels, and mission event characteristics. This capability is intended for use on any project or system development with a defined mission, and an example project will used for demonstration and descriptive purposes, e.g., landing a robot on the moon. The effects of various alternative design considerations and their impact of these decisions on mission success (or failure) can be measured in real time on a personal computer. This capability provides a high degree of efficiency for quickly providing information in NASA s evolving risk-based decision environment

12 CFR 217.173 - Disclosures by certain advanced approaches Board-regulated institutions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... total capital within the group. Quantitative disclosures (d) The aggregate amount of surplus capital of... conditions of the main features of all regulatory capital instruments. Quantitative disclosures (b) The... current and future activities. Quantitative disclosures (b) Risk-weighted assets for credit risk from: (1...

12 CFR 324.173 - Disclosures by certain advanced approaches FDIC-supervised institutions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... total capital within the group. Quantitative disclosures (d) The aggregate amount of surplus capital of... conditions of the main features of all regulatory capital instruments. Quantitative disclosures (b) The... current and future activities. Quantitative disclosures (b) Risk-weighted assets for credit risk from:(1...

Characterization and Application of a Grazing Angle Objective for Quantitative Infrared Reflection Microspectroscopy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pepper, Stephen V.

1995-01-01

A grazing angle objective on an infrared microspectrometer is studied for quantitative spectroscopy by considering the angular dependence of the incident intensity within the objective's angular aperture. The assumption that there is no angular dependence is tested by comparing the experimental reflectance of Si and KBr surfaces with the reflectance calculated by integrating the Fresnel reflection coefficient over the angular aperture under this assumption. Good agreement was found, indicating that the specular reflectance of surfaces can straight-forwardly be quantitatively integrated over the angular aperture without considering non-uniform incident intensity. This quantitative approach is applied to the thickness determination of dipcoated Krytox on gold. The infrared optical constants of both materials are known, allowing the integration to be carried out. The thickness obtained is in fair agreement with the value determined by ellipsometry in the visible. Therefore, this paper illustrates a method for more quantitative use of a grazing angle objective for infrared reflectance microspectroscopy.

Using Active Learning to Teach Concepts and Methods in Quantitative Biology.

PubMed

Waldrop, Lindsay D; Adolph, Stephen C; Diniz Behn, Cecilia G; Braley, Emily; Drew, Joshua A; Full, Robert J; Gross, Louis J; Jungck, John A; Kohler, Brynja; Prairie, Jennifer C; Shtylla, Blerta; Miller, Laura A

2015-11-01

This article provides a summary of the ideas discussed at the 2015 Annual Meeting of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology society-wide symposium on Leading Students and Faculty to Quantitative Biology through Active Learning. It also includes a brief review of the recent advancements in incorporating active learning approaches into quantitative biology classrooms. We begin with an overview of recent literature that shows that active learning can improve students' outcomes in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math Education disciplines. We then discuss how this approach can be particularly useful when teaching topics in quantitative biology. Next, we describe some of the recent initiatives to develop hands-on activities in quantitative biology at both the graduate and the undergraduate levels. Throughout the article we provide resources for educators who wish to integrate active learning and technology into their classrooms. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A clustering approach to segmenting users of internet-based risk calculators.

PubMed

Harle, C A; Downs, J S; Padman, R

2011-01-01

Risk calculators are widely available Internet applications that deliver quantitative health risk estimates to consumers. Although these tools are known to have varying effects on risk perceptions, little is known about who will be more likely to accept objective risk estimates. To identify clusters of online health consumers that help explain variation in individual improvement in risk perceptions from web-based quantitative disease risk information. A secondary analysis was performed on data collected in a field experiment that measured people's pre-diabetes risk perceptions before and after visiting a realistic health promotion website that provided quantitative risk information. K-means clustering was performed on numerous candidate variable sets, and the different segmentations were evaluated based on between-cluster variation in risk perception improvement. Variation in responses to risk information was best explained by clustering on pre-intervention absolute pre-diabetes risk perceptions and an objective estimate of personal risk. Members of a high-risk overestimater cluster showed large improvements in their risk perceptions, but clusters of both moderate-risk and high-risk underestimaters were much more muted in improving their optimistically biased perceptions. Cluster analysis provided a unique approach for segmenting health consumers and predicting their acceptance of quantitative disease risk information. These clusters suggest that health consumers were very responsive to good news, but tended not to incorporate bad news into their self-perceptions much. These findings help to quantify variation among online health consumers and may inform the targeted marketing of and improvements to risk communication tools on the Internet.

Potency values from the local lymph node assay: application to classification, labelling and risk assessment.

PubMed

Loveless, S E; Api, A-M; Crevel, R W R; Debruyne, E; Gamer, A; Jowsey, I R; Kern, P; Kimber, I; Lea, L; Lloyd, P; Mehmood, Z; Steiling, W; Veenstra, G; Woolhiser, M; Hennes, C

2010-02-01

Hundreds of chemicals are contact allergens but there remains a need to identify and characterise accurately skin sensitising hazards. The purpose of this review was fourfold. First, when using the local lymph node assay (LLNA), consider whether an exposure concentration (EC3 value) lower than 100% can be defined and used as a threshold criterion for classification and labelling. Second, is there any reason to revise the recommendation of a previous ECETOC Task Force regarding specific EC3 values used for sub-categorisation of substances based upon potency? Third, what recommendations can be made regarding classification and labelling of preparations under GHS? Finally, consider how to integrate LLNA data into risk assessment and provide a rationale for using concentration responses and corresponding no-effect concentrations. Although skin sensitising chemicals having high EC3 values may represent only relatively low risks to humans, it is not possible currently to define an EC3 value below 100% that would serve as an appropriate threshold for classification and labelling. The conclusion drawn from reviewing the use of distinct categories for characterising contact allergens was that the most appropriate, science-based classification of contact allergens according to potency is one in which four sub-categories are identified: 'extreme', 'strong', 'moderate' and 'weak'. Since draining lymph node cell proliferation is related causally and quantitatively to potency, LLNA EC3 values are recommended for determination of a no expected sensitisation induction level that represents the first step in quantitative risk assessment. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integration of Population-Level Genotype Data with Functional Annotation Reveals Over-Representation of Long Noncoding RNAs at Ovarian Cancer Susceptibility Loci.

PubMed

Reid, Brett M; Permuth, Jennifer B; Chen, Y Ann; Teer, Jamie K; Monteiro, Alvaro N A; Chen, Zhihua; Tyrer, Jonathan; Berchuck, Andrew; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Doherty, Jennifer A; Goode, Ellen L; Iverson, Edwin S; Lawrenson, Kate; Pearce, Celeste L; Pharoah, Paul D; Phelan, Catherine M; Ramus, Susan J; Rossing, Mary Anne; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Cheng, Jin Q; Gayther, Simon A; Sellers, Thomas A

2017-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple loci associated with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) susceptibility, but further progress requires integration of epidemiology and biology to illuminate true risk loci below genome-wide significance levels (P < 5 × 10 -8 ). Most risk SNPs lie within non-protein-encoding regions, and we hypothesize that long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) genes are enriched at EOC risk regions and represent biologically relevant functional targets. Using imputed GWAS data from about 18,000 invasive EOC cases and 34,000 controls of European ancestry, the GENCODE (v19) lncRNA database was used to annotate SNPs from 13,442 lncRNAs for permutation-based enrichment analysis. Tumor expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analysis was performed for sub-genome-wide regions (1 × 10 -5 > P > 5 × 10 -8 ) overlapping lncRNAs. Of 5,294 EOC-associated SNPs (P < 1.0 × 10 -5 ), 1,464 (28%) mapped within 53 unique lncRNAs and an additional 3,484 (66%) SNPs were correlated (r 2 > 0.2) with SNPs within 115 lncRNAs. EOC-associated SNPs comprised 130 independent regions, of which 72 (55%) overlapped with lncRNAs, representing a significant enrichment (P = 5.0 × 10 -4 ) that was more pronounced among a subset of 5,401 lncRNAs with active epigenetic regulation in normal ovarian tissue. EOC-associated lncRNAs and their putative promoters and transcription factors were enriched for biologically relevant pathways and eQTL analysis identified five novel putative risk regions with allele-specific effects on lncRNA gene expression. lncRNAs are significantly enriched at EOC risk regions, suggesting a mechanistic role for lncRNAs in driving predisposition to EOC. lncRNAs represent key candidates for integrative epidemiologic and functional studies. Further research on their biologic role in ovarian cancer is indicated. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(1); 116-25. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tan, Zhibin (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Filling the knowledge gap: Integrating quantitative genetics and genomics in graduate education and outreach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The genomics revolution provides vital tools to address global food security. Yet to be incorporated into livestock breeding, molecular techniques need to be integrated into a quantitative genetics framework. Within the U.S., with shrinking faculty numbers with the requisite skills, the capacity to ...

Measuring the Beginning: A Quantitative Study of the Transition to Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooman, Simon; Darwent, Sue

2014-01-01

This quantitative study measures change in certain factors known to influence success of first-year students during the transition to higher education: self-efficacy, autonomous learning and social integration. A social integration scale was developed with three subscales: "sense of belonging", "relationship with staff" and…

Quantitative Methods in the Study of Local History

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davey, Pene

1974-01-01

The author suggests how the quantitative analysis of data from census records, assessment roles, and newspapers may be integrated into the classroom. Suggestions for obtaining quantitative data are provided. (DE)

Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens.

PubMed

Rosenquist, Hanne; Nielsen, Niels L; Sommer, Helle M; Nørrung, Birgit; Christensen, Bjarke B

2003-05-25

A quantitative risk assessment comprising the elements hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization has been prepared to assess the effect of different mitigation strategies on the number of human cases in Denmark associated with thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in chickens. To estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a chicken meal and the number of human cases associated with this exposure, a mathematical risk model was developed. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in chickens from slaughter to consumption and the relationship between ingested dose and the probability of developing campylobacteriosis. Human exposure was estimated in two successive mathematical modules. Module 1 addresses changes in prevalence and numbers of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses throughout the processing steps of a slaughterhouse. Module 2 covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost no effect on the human Campylobacter incidence, which indicates that implementation of logistic slaughter will only have a minor influence on the risk. Finally, the simulations showed that people in the age of 18-29 years had the highest risk of developing campylobacteriosis.

Anti-arrhythmic strategies for atrial fibrillation

PubMed Central

Grandi, Eleonora; Maleckar, Mary M.

2016-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac arrhythmia, is associated with increased risk of cerebrovascular stroke, and with several other pathologies, including heart failure. Current therapies for AF are targeted at reducing risk of stroke (anticoagulation) and tachycardia-induced cardiomyopathy (rate or rhythm control). Rate control, typically achieved by atrioventricular nodal blocking drugs, is often insufficient to alleviate symptoms. Rhythm control approaches include antiarrhythmic drugs, electrical cardioversion, and ablation strategies. Here, we offer several examples of how computational modeling can provide a quantitative framework for integrating multi scale data to: (a) gain insight into multi-scale mechanisms of AF; (b) identify and test pharmacological and electrical therapy and interventions; and (c) support clinical decisions. We review how modeling approaches have evolved and contributed to the research pipeline and preclinical development and discuss future directions and challenges in the field. PMID:27612549

A quantitative microbial risk assessment for center pivot irrigation of dairy wastewaters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the western United States where livestock wastewaters are commonly land applied, there are concerns over individuals being exposed to airborne pathogens. In response, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was performed to estimate infectious risks from inhaling pathogens aerosolized dur...

QUANTITATIVE CANCER RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY USING SHORT-TERM GENETIC BIOASSAYS: THE COMPARATIVE POTENCY METHOD

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative risk assessment is fraught with many uncertainties. The validity of the assumptions underlying the methods employed are often difficult to test or validate. Cancer risk assessment has generally employed either human epidemiological data from relatively high occupatio...

75 FR 4067 - Release of Draft Documents Related to the Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-26

... for public comment a second draft assessment document titled, Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for... quantitative analyses that are being conducted as part of the review of the national ambient air quality...-Focused Visibility Assessment--Second External Review Draft and Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for...

75 FR 39252 - Release of Final Documents Related to the Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-08

..., Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for Particulate Matter and Particulate Matter Urban-Focused Visibility Assessment. These two documents describe the quantitative analyses that have been conducted as part of the..., Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for Particulate Matter, please contact Dr. Zachary Pekar, Office of Air...

EVALUATING TOOLS AND MODELS USED FOR QUANTITATIVE EXTRAPOLATION OF IN VITRO TO IN VIVO DATA FOR NEUROTOXICANTS*

EPA Science Inventory

There are a number of risk management decisions, which range from prioritization for testing to quantitative risk assessments. The utility of in vitro studies in these decisions depends on how well the results of such data can be qualitatively and quantitatively extrapolated to i...

Assessing internal biophysical vulnerability to landslide hazards - a nested catchment approach: Xiangxi Watershed / Three Gorges Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiegand, Matthias; Seeber, Christoph; Hartmann, Heike; Xiang, Wei; King, Lorenz

2010-05-01

The Three Gorges dam construction was completed in 2006. Besides the international media, also the responsible authorities and various scholarly communities pay close attention to potential and actual environmental impacts related to the impoundment and development activities. The geo-environment within the Three Gorges region is highly conducive to landslides. Consequently, a scientific monitoring and risk mitigation system was established and is still under development. Risk analysis with regard to gravity driven mass movements is highly complex and strongly site specific - several aspects hamper a universal methodology applicable for landslide risk and site assessment. The interdisciplinary Sino-German Yangtze-Project Research co-operation aims, among others, to support the sustainable cultivation of the newly developed ecosystems within the Yangtze catchments. Land use change and increasing population growth are causing severe pressure on the scarce land resources. Landslides are acknowledged as important threat, hence vulnerability of certain landscape components have to be identified, quantified and monitored. A nested quantitative approach for vulnerability analysis is developed. The applied risk and vulnerability model understands risk as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Whereas vulnerability is characterized by: mass movement intensity and susceptibility of the respective element at risk. The watershed of Xiangxi river serves as study area. In general, catchment approaches intent and proved to be a functional geographical unit for successful integrated resources management. Several limitations with regard to data accessibility, availability and accuracy have to be considered due to restrictions of feasible scales. Comprehensive large-scale site investigations are confined to training areas for model calibration and validation. Remote sensing potentials are utilised for land use/ land cover change analysis and localization of selected elements. Dwellings and road infrastructure, chosen as high priorities, are captured based on various data like: high resolution satellite imagery, topographic information and field investigation. Currently demographic data is available only at administrative county level - therefore buildings will serve as spatial proxy for population density. Elements at risk will be classified into categories and susceptibility factors will be identified for sampled groups. The envisaged model defines the susceptibility of a certain element at risk not only by the element itself - it assumes that the specific susceptibility is also strongly influenced by the particular surroundings. The susceptibility of a certain building, as for instance, will be defined by the structure type and condition, and in addition or as proxy, specific site characteristics like: slope angle and aspect, soil type and erodibility, lithology, proximity to streams, proximity to the Three Gorges reservoir, depth to groundwater, land use change and dissect intensity, if feasible. Each factor with potential influence on susceptibility will go through a GIS based factor weighting procedure as part of the quantitative vulnerability model. Holistic, "cross scale integrated" vulnerability assessment models need to integrate environmental, social/ cultural and economic aspects. Therefore the proposed vulnerability assessment model must be seen as a starting point for a conceptual framework, and might serve as stimulus to local disaster- and resources management systems. Furthermore the GIS based model enables the opportunity to be linked and refined within the local spatial data infrastructure initiatives.

The role of imaging based prostate biopsy morphology in a data fusion paradigm for transducing prognostic predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Faisal M.; Kulikowski, Casimir A.

2016-03-01

A major focus area for precision medicine is in managing the treatment of newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients. For patients with a positive biopsy, clinicians aim to develop an individualized treatment plan based on a mechanistic understanding of the disease factors unique to each patient. Recently, there has been a movement towards a multi-modal view of the cancer through the fusion of quantitative information from multiple sources, imaging and otherwise. Simultaneously, there have been significant advances in machine learning methods for medical prognostics which integrate a multitude of predictive factors to develop an individualized risk assessment and prognosis for patients. An emerging area of research is in semi-supervised approaches which transduce the appropriate survival time for censored patients. In this work, we apply a novel semi-supervised approach for support vector regression to predict the prognosis for newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients. We integrate clinical characteristics of a patient's disease with imaging derived metrics for biomarker expression as well as glandular and nuclear morphology. In particular, our goal was to explore the performance of nuclear and glandular architecture within the transduction algorithm and assess their predictive power when compared with the Gleason score manually assigned by a pathologist. Our analysis in a multi-institutional cohort of 1027 patients indicates that not only do glandular and morphometric characteristics improve the predictive power of the semi-supervised transduction algorithm; they perform better when the pathological Gleason is absent. This work represents one of the first assessments of quantitative prostate biopsy architecture versus the Gleason grade in the context of a data fusion paradigm which leverages a semi-supervised approach for risk prognosis.

Integration of bioinformatics and imaging informatics for identifying rare PSEN1 variants in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Nho, Kwangsik; Horgusluoglu, Emrin; Kim, Sungeun; Risacher, Shannon L; Kim, Dokyoon; Foroud, Tatiana; Aisen, Paul S; Petersen, Ronald C; Jack, Clifford R; Shaw, Leslie M; Trojanowski, John Q; Weiner, Michael W; Green, Robert C; Toga, Arthur W; Saykin, Andrew J

2016-08-12

Pathogenic mutations in PSEN1 are known to cause familial early-onset Alzheimer's disease (EOAD) but common variants in PSEN1 have not been found to strongly influence late-onset AD (LOAD). The association of rare variants in PSEN1 with LOAD-related endophenotypes has received little attention. In this study, we performed a rare variant association analysis of PSEN1 with quantitative biomarkers of LOAD using whole genome sequencing (WGS) by integrating bioinformatics and imaging informatics. A WGS data set (N = 815) from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort was used in this analysis. 757 non-Hispanic Caucasian participants underwent WGS from a blood sample and high resolution T1-weighted structural MRI at baseline. An automated MRI analysis technique (FreeSurfer) was used to measure cortical thickness and volume of neuroanatomical structures. We assessed imaging and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers as LOAD-related quantitative endophenotypes. Single variant analyses were performed using PLINK and gene-based analyses of rare variants were performed using the optimal Sequence Kernel Association Test (SKAT-O). A total of 839 rare variants (MAF < 1/√(2 N) = 0.0257) were found within a region of ±10 kb from PSEN1. Among them, six exonic (three non-synonymous) variants were observed. A single variant association analysis showed that the PSEN1 p. E318G variant increases the risk of LOAD only in participants carrying APOE ε4 allele where individuals carrying the minor allele of this PSEN1 risk variant have lower CSF Aβ1-42 and higher CSF tau. A gene-based analysis resulted in a significant association of rare but not common (MAF ≥ 0.0257) PSEN1 variants with bilateral entorhinal cortical thickness. This is the first study to show that PSEN1 rare variants collectively show a significant association with the brain atrophy in regions preferentially affected by LOAD, providing further support for a role of PSEN1 in LOAD. The PSEN1 p. E318G variant increases the risk of LOAD only in APOE ε4 carriers. Integrating bioinformatics with imaging informatics for identification of rare variants could help explain the missing heritability in LOAD.

Development and Assessment of Modules to Integrate Quantitative Skills in Introductory Biology Courses

PubMed Central

Hoffman, Kathleen; Leupen, Sarah; Dowell, Kathy; Kephart, Kerrie; Leips, Jeff

2016-01-01

Redesigning undergraduate biology courses to integrate quantitative reasoning and skill development is critical to prepare students for careers in modern medicine and scientific research. In this paper, we report on the development, implementation, and assessment of stand-alone modules that integrate quantitative reasoning into introductory biology courses. Modules are designed to improve skills in quantitative numeracy, interpreting data sets using visual tools, and making inferences about biological phenomena using mathematical/statistical models. We also examine demographic/background data that predict student improvement in these skills through exposure to these modules. We carried out pre/postassessment tests across four semesters and used student interviews in one semester to examine how students at different levels approached quantitative problems. We found that students improved in all skills in most semesters, although there was variation in the degree of improvement among skills from semester to semester. One demographic variable, transfer status, stood out as a major predictor of the degree to which students improved (transfer students achieved much lower gains every semester, despite the fact that pretest scores in each focus area were similar between transfer and nontransfer students). We propose that increased exposure to quantitative skill development in biology courses is effective at building competency in quantitative reasoning. PMID:27146161

Overview of EVA PRA for TPS Repair for Hubble Space Telescope Servicing Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bigler, Mark; Duncan, Gary; Roeschel, Eduardo; Canga, Michael

2010-01-01

Following the Columbia accident in 2003, NASA developed techniques to repair the Thermal Protection System (TPS) in the event of damage to the TPS as one of several actions to reduce the risk to future flights from ascent debris, micro-meteoroid and/or orbital debris (MMOD). Other actions to help reduce the risk include improved inspection techniques, reduced shedding of debris from the External Tank and ability to rescue the crew with a launch on need vehicle. For the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Servicing Mission the crew rescue capability was limited by the inability to safe haven on the International Space Station (ISS), resulting in a greater reliance on the repair capability. Therefore it was desirable to have an idea of the risk associated with conducting a repair, where the repair would have to be conducted using an Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA). Previously, focused analyses had been conducted to quantify the risk associated with certain aspects of an EVA, for example the EVA Mobility Unit (EMU) or Space Suit; however, the analyses were somewhat limited in scope. A complete integrated model of an EVA which could quantify the risk associated with all of the major components of an EVA had never been done before. It was desired to have a complete integrated model to be able to assess the risks associated with an EVA to support the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) in making risk informed decisions. In the case of the HST Servicing Mission, this model was developed to assess specifically the risks associated with performing a TPS repair EVA. This paper provides an overview of the model that was developed to support the HST mission in the event of TPS damage. The HST Servicing Mission was successfully completed on May 24th 2009 with no critical TPS damage; therefore the model was not required for real-time mission support. However, it laid the foundation upon which future EVA quantitative risk assessments could be based.

Systematic Integration of Brain eQTL and GWAS Identifies ZNF323 as a Novel Schizophrenia Risk Gene and Suggests Recent Positive Selection Based on Compensatory Advantage on Pulmonary Function.

PubMed

Luo, Xiong-Jian; Mattheisen, Manuel; Li, Ming; Huang, Liang; Rietschel, Marcella; Børglum, Anders D; Als, Thomas D; van den Oord, Edwin J; Aberg, Karolina A; Mors, Ole; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Luo, Zhenwu; Degenhardt, Franziska; Cichon, Sven; Schulze, Thomas G; Nöthen, Markus M; Su, Bing; Zhao, Zhongming; Gan, Lin; Yao, Yong-Gang

2015-11-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple risk variants and loci that show robust association with schizophrenia. Nevertheless, it remains unclear how these variants confer risk to schizophrenia. In addition, the driving force that maintains the schizophrenia risk variants in human gene pool is poorly understood. To investigate whether expression-associated genetic variants contribute to schizophrenia susceptibility, we systematically integrated brain expression quantitative trait loci and genome-wide association data of schizophrenia using Sherlock, a Bayesian statistical framework. Our analyses identified ZNF323 as a schizophrenia risk gene (P = 2.22×10(-6)). Subsequent analyses confirmed the association of the ZNF323 and its expression-associated single nucleotide polymorphism rs1150711 in independent samples (gene-expression: P = 1.40×10(-6); single-marker meta-analysis in the combined discovery and replication sample comprising 44123 individuals: P = 6.85×10(-10)). We found that the ZNF323 was significantly downregulated in hippocampus and frontal cortex of schizophrenia patients (P = .0038 and P = .0233, respectively). Evidence for pleiotropic effects was detected (association of rs1150711 with lung function and gene expression of ZNF323 in lung: P = 6.62×10(-5) and P = 9.00×10(-5), respectively) with the risk allele (T allele) for schizophrenia acting as protective allele for lung function. Subsequent population genetics analyses suggest that the risk allele (T) of rs1150711 might have undergone recent positive selection in human population. Our findings suggest that the ZNF323 is a schizophrenia susceptibility gene whose expression may influence schizophrenia risk. Our study also illustrates a possible mechanism for maintaining schizophrenia risk variants in the human gene pool. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

US EPA - A*Star Partnership - Accelerating the Acceptance of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The path for incorporating new alternative methods and technologies into quantitative chemical risk assessment poses a diverse set of scientific challenges. Some of these challenges include development of relevant and predictive test systems and computational models to integrate and extrapolate experimental data, and rapid characterization and acceptance of these systems and models. The series of presentations will highlight a collaborative effort between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) that is focused on developing and applying experimental and computational models for predicting chemical-induced liver and kidney toxicity, brain angiogenesis, and blood-brain-barrier formation. In addressing some of these challenges, the U.S. EPA and A*STAR collaboration will provide a glimpse of what chemical risk assessments could look like in the 21st century. Presentation on US EPA – A*STAR Partnership at international symposium on Accelerating the acceptance of next-generation sciences and their application to regulatory risk assessment in Singapore.

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

PubMed

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Convergent evidence from systematic analysis of GWAS revealed genetic basis of esophageal cancer.

PubMed

Gao, Xue-Xin; Gao, Lei; Wang, Jiu-Qiang; Qu, Su-Su; Qu, Yue; Sun, Hong-Lei; Liu, Si-Dang; Shang, Ying-Li

2016-07-12

Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with risk of esophageal cancer (EC). However, investigation of genetic basis from the perspective of systematic biology and integrative genomics remains scarce.In this study, we explored genetic basis of EC based on GWAS data and implemented a series of bioinformatics methods including functional annotation, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis, pathway enrichment analysis and pathway grouped network analysis.Two hundred and thirteen risk SNPs were identified, in which 44 SNPs were found to have significantly differential gene expression in esophageal tissues by eQTL analysis. By pathway enrichment analysis, 170 risk genes mapped by risk SNPs were enriched into 38 significant GO terms and 17 significant KEGG pathways, which were significantly grouped into 9 sub-networks by pathway grouped network analysis. The 9 groups of interconnected pathways were mainly involved with muscle cell proliferation, cellular response to interleukin-6, cell adhesion molecules, and ethanol oxidation, which might participate in the development of EC.Our findings provide genetic evidence and new insight for exploring the molecular mechanisms of EC.

Databases applicable to quantitative hazard/risk assessment-Towards a predictive systems toxicology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waters, Michael; Jackson, Marcus

2008-11-15

The Workshop on The Power of Aggregated Toxicity Data addressed the requirement for distributed databases to support quantitative hazard and risk assessment. The authors have conceived and constructed with federal support several databases that have been used in hazard identification and risk assessment. The first of these databases, the EPA Gene-Tox Database was developed for the EPA Office of Toxic Substances by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and is currently hosted by the National Library of Medicine. This public resource is based on the collaborative evaluation, by government, academia, and industry, of short-term tests for the detection of mutagens andmore » presumptive carcinogens. The two-phased evaluation process resulted in more than 50 peer-reviewed publications on test system performance and a qualitative database on thousands of chemicals. Subsequently, the graphic and quantitative EPA/IARC Genetic Activity Profile (GAP) Database was developed in collaboration with the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). A chemical database driven by consideration of the lowest effective dose, GAP has served IARC for many years in support of hazard classification of potential human carcinogens. The Toxicological Activity Profile (TAP) prototype database was patterned after GAP and utilized acute, subchronic, and chronic data from the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. TAP demonstrated the flexibility of the GAP format for air toxics, water pollutants and other environmental agents. The GAP format was also applied to developmental toxicants and was modified to represent quantitative results from the rodent carcinogen bioassay. More recently, the authors have constructed: 1) the NIEHS Genetic Alterations in Cancer (GAC) Database which quantifies specific mutations found in cancers induced by environmental agents, and 2) the NIEHS Chemical Effects in Biological Systems (CEBS) Knowledgebase that integrates genomic and other biological data including dose-response studies in toxicology and pathology. Each of the public databases has been discussed in prior publications. They will be briefly described in the present report from the perspective of aggregating datasets to augment the data and information contained within them.« less

Multi-system Component Phenotypes of Bipolar Disorder for Genetic Investigations of Extended Pedigrees

PubMed Central

Fears, Scott C.; Service, Susan K.; Kremeyer, Barbara; Araya, Carmen; Araya, Xinia; Bejarano, Julio; Ramirez, Margarita; Castrillón, Gabriel; Gomez-Franco, Juliana; Lopez, Maria C.; Montoya, Gabriel; Montoya, Patricia; Aldana, Ileana; Teshiba, Terri M.; Abaryan, Zvart; Al-Sharif, Noor B.; Ericson, Marissa; Jalbrzikowski, Maria; Luykx, Jurjen J.; Navarro, Linda; Tishler, Todd A.; Altshuler, Lori; Bartzokis, George; Escobar, Javier; Glahn, David C.; Ospina-Duque, Jorge; Risch, Neil; Ruiz-Linares, Andrés; Thompson, Paul M.; Cantor, Rita M.; Lopez-Jaramillo, Carlos; Macaya, Gabriel; Molina, Julio; Reus, Victor I.; Sabatti, Chiara; Freimer, Nelson B.; Bearden, Carrie E.

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE Genetic factors contribute to risk for bipolar disorder (BP), yet its pathogenesis remains poorly understood. A focus on measuring multi-system quantitative traits that may be components of BP psychopathology may enable genetic dissection of this complex disorder, and investigation of extended pedigrees from genetically isolated populations may facilitate the detection of specific genetic variants that impact on BP as well as its component phenotypes. OBJECTIVE To identify quantitative neurocognitive, temperament-related, and neuroanatomic phenotypes that appear heritable and associated with severe bipolar disorder (BP-I), and therefore suitable for genetic linkage and association studies aimed at identifying variants contributing to BP-I risk. DESIGN Multi-generational pedigree study in two closely related, genetically isolated populations: the Central Valley of Costa Rica (CVCR) and Antioquia, Colombia (ANT). PARTICIPANTS 738 individuals, all from CVCR and ANT pedigrees, of whom 181 are affected with BP-I. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Familial aggregation (heritability) and association with BP-I of 169 quantitative neurocognitive, temperament, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) phenotypes. RESULTS Seventy-five percent (126) of the phenotypes investigated were significantly heritable, and 31% (53) were associated with BP-I. About 1/4 of the phenotypes, including measures from each phenotype domain, were both heritable and associated with BP-I. Neuroimaging phenotypes, particularly cortical thickness in prefrontal and temporal regions, and volume and microstructural integrity of the corpus callosum, represented the most promising candidate traits for genetic mapping related to BP based on strong heritability and association with disease. Analyses of phenotypic and genetic covariation identified substantial correlations among the traits, at least some of which share a common underlying genetic architecture. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This is the most extensive investigation of BP-relevant component phenotypes to date. Our results identify brain and behavioral quantitative traits that appear to be genetically influenced and show a pattern of BP-I-association within families that is consistent with expectations from case-control studies. Together these phenotypes provide a basis for identifying loci contributing to BP-I risk and for genetic dissection of the disorder. PMID:24522887

Levels of reconstruction as complementarity in mixed methods research: a social theory-based conceptual framework for integrating qualitative and quantitative research.

PubMed

Carroll, Linda J; Rothe, J Peter

2010-09-01

Like other areas of health research, there has been increasing use of qualitative methods to study public health problems such as injuries and injury prevention. Likewise, the integration of qualitative and quantitative research (mixed-methods) is beginning to assume a more prominent role in public health studies. Likewise, using mixed-methods has great potential for gaining a broad and comprehensive understanding of injuries and their prevention. However, qualitative and quantitative research methods are based on two inherently different paradigms, and their integration requires a conceptual framework that permits the unity of these two methods. We present a theory-driven framework for viewing qualitative and quantitative research, which enables us to integrate them in a conceptually sound and useful manner. This framework has its foundation within the philosophical concept of complementarity, as espoused in the physical and social sciences, and draws on Bergson's metaphysical work on the 'ways of knowing'. Through understanding how data are constructed and reconstructed, and the different levels of meaning that can be ascribed to qualitative and quantitative findings, we can use a mixed-methods approach to gain a conceptually sound, holistic knowledge about injury phenomena that will enhance our development of relevant and successful interventions.

TOXNET: Toxicology Data Network

MedlinePlus

... 4. Supporting Data for Carcinogenicity Expand II.B. Quantitative Estimate of Carcinogenic Risk from Oral Exposure II. ... of Confidence (Carcinogenicity, Oral Exposure) Expand II.C. Quantitative Estimate of Carcinogenic Risk from Inhalation Exposure II. ...

Quality-by-Design II: Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis to the Formulation of Ciprofloxacin Tablets.

PubMed

Claycamp, H Gregg; Kona, Ravikanth; Fahmy, Raafat; Hoag, Stephen W

2016-04-01

Qualitative risk assessment methods are often used as the first step to determining design space boundaries; however, quantitative assessments of risk with respect to the design space, i.e., calculating the probability of failure for a given severity, are needed to fully characterize design space boundaries. Quantitative risk assessment methods in design and operational spaces are a significant aid to evaluating proposed design space boundaries. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate a relatively simple strategy for design space definition using a simplified Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation. This paper builds on a previous paper that used failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) qualitative risk assessment and Plackett-Burman design of experiments to identity the critical quality attributes. The results show that the sequential use of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments can focus the design of experiments on a reduced set of critical material and process parameters that determine a robust design space under conditions of limited laboratory experimentation. This approach provides a strategy by which the degree of risk associated with each known parameter can be calculated and allocates resources in a manner that manages risk to an acceptable level.

Factors associated with perception of risk of contracting HIV among secondary school female learners in Mbonge subdivision of rural Cameroon.

PubMed

Tarkang, Elvis Enowbeyang

2014-01-01

Since learners in secondary schools fall within the age group hardest hit by HIV/AIDS, it is obvious that these learners might be at high risk of contracting HIV/AIDS. However, little has been explored on the perception of risk of contracting HIV among secondary school learners in Cameroon. This study aimed at examining the perception of risk of contracting HIV among secondary school learners in Mbonge subdivision of rural Cameroon using the Health Belief Model (HBM) as framework. A quantitative, correlational design was adopted, using a self-administered questionnaire to collect data from 210 female learners selected through disproportional, stratified, simple random sampling technique, from three participating senior secondary schools. Statistics were calculated using SPSS version 20 software program. Only 39.4% of the respondents perceived themselves to be at high risk of contracting HIV, though the majority, 54.0% were sexually active. Multinomial logistic regression analyses show that sexual risk behaviours (p=0.000) and the Integrated Value Mapping (IVM) of the perception components of the HBM are the most significant factors associated with perception of risk of contracting HIV at the level p<0.05. The findings of this study can play an instrumental role in the development of effective preventive and interventional messages for adolescents in Cameroon.

Towards the integration, annotation and association of historical microarray experiments with RNA-seq.

PubMed

Chavan, Shweta S; Bauer, Michael A; Peterson, Erich A; Heuck, Christoph J; Johann, Donald J

2013-01-01

Transcriptome analysis by microarrays has produced important advances in biomedicine. For instance in multiple myeloma (MM), microarray approaches led to the development of an effective disease subtyping via cluster assignment, and a 70 gene risk score. Both enabled an improved molecular understanding of MM, and have provided prognostic information for the purposes of clinical management. Many researchers are now transitioning to Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) approaches and RNA-seq in particular, due to its discovery-based nature, improved sensitivity, and dynamic range. Additionally, RNA-seq allows for the analysis of gene isoforms, splice variants, and novel gene fusions. Given the voluminous amounts of historical microarray data, there is now a need to associate and integrate microarray and RNA-seq data via advanced bioinformatic approaches. Custom software was developed following a model-view-controller (MVC) approach to integrate Affymetrix probe set-IDs, and gene annotation information from a variety of sources. The tool/approach employs an assortment of strategies to integrate, cross reference, and associate microarray and RNA-seq datasets. Output from a variety of transcriptome reconstruction and quantitation tools (e.g., Cufflinks) can be directly integrated, and/or associated with Affymetrix probe set data, as well as necessary gene identifiers and/or symbols from a diversity of sources. Strategies are employed to maximize the annotation and cross referencing process. Custom gene sets (e.g., MM 70 risk score (GEP-70)) can be specified, and the tool can be directly assimilated into an RNA-seq pipeline. A novel bioinformatic approach to aid in the facilitation of both annotation and association of historic microarray data, in conjunction with richer RNA-seq data, is now assisting with the study of MM cancer biology.

Balancing water scarcity and quality for sustainable irrigated agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assouline, Shmuel; Russo, David; Silber, Avner; Or, Dani

2015-05-01

The challenge of meeting the projected doubling of global demand for food by 2050 is monumental. It is further exacerbated by the limited prospects for land expansion and rapidly dwindling water resources. A promising strategy for increasing crop yields per unit land requires the expansion of irrigated agriculture and the harnessing of water sources previously considered "marginal" (saline, treated effluent, and desalinated water). Such an expansion, however, must carefully consider potential long-term risks on soil hydroecological functioning. The study provides critical analyses of use of marginal water and management approaches to map out potential risks. Long-term application of treated effluent (TE) for irrigation has shown adverse impacts on soil transport properties, and introduces certain health risks due to the persistent exposure of soil biota to anthropogenic compounds (e.g., promoting antibiotic resistance). The availability of desalinated water (DS) for irrigation expands management options and improves yields while reducing irrigation amounts and salt loading into the soil. Quantitative models are used to delineate trends associated with long-term use of TE and DS considering agricultural, hydrological, and environmental aspects. The primary challenges to the sustainability of agroecosystems lies with the hazards of saline and sodic conditions, and the unintended consequences on soil hydroecological functioning. Multidisciplinary approaches that combine new scientific knowhow with legislative, economic, and societal tools are required to ensure safe and sustainable use of water resources of different qualities. The new scientific knowhow should provide quantitative models for integrating key biophysical processes with ecological interactions at appropriate spatial and temporal scales.

Emerging systems biology approaches in nanotoxicology: Towards a mechanism-based understanding of nanomaterial hazard and risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costa, Pedro M.; Fadeel, Bengt, E-mail: Bengt.Fade

Engineered nanomaterials are being developed for a variety of technological applications. However, the increasing use of nanomaterials in society has led to concerns about their potential adverse effects on human health and the environment. During the first decade of nanotoxicological research, the realization has emerged that effective risk assessment of the multitudes of new nanomaterials would benefit from a comprehensive understanding of their toxicological mechanisms, which is difficult to achieve with traditional, low-throughput, single end-point oriented approaches. Therefore, systems biology approaches are being progressively applied within the nano(eco)toxicological sciences. This novel paradigm implies that the study of biological systems shouldmore » be integrative resulting in quantitative and predictive models of nanomaterial behaviour in a biological system. To this end, global ‘omics’ approaches with which to assess changes in genes, proteins, metabolites, etc. are deployed allowing for computational modelling of the biological effects of nanomaterials. Here, we highlight omics and systems biology studies in nanotoxicology, aiming towards the implementation of a systems nanotoxicology and mechanism-based risk assessment of nanomaterials. - Highlights: • Systems nanotoxicology is a multi-disciplinary approach to quantitative modelling. • Transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics remain the most common methods. • Global “omics” techniques should be coupled to computational modelling approaches. • The discovery of nano-specific toxicity pathways and biomarkers is a prioritized goal. • Overall, experimental nanosafety research must endeavour reproducibility and relevance.« less

Accurate object tracking system by integrating texture and depth cues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ju-Chin; Lin, Yu-Hang

2016-03-01

A robust object tracking system that is invariant to object appearance variations and background clutter is proposed. Multiple instance learning with a boosting algorithm is applied to select discriminant texture information between the object and background data. Additionally, depth information, which is important to distinguish the object from a complicated background, is integrated. We propose two depth-based models that can compensate texture information to cope with both appearance variants and background clutter. Moreover, in order to reduce the risk of drifting problem increased for the textureless depth templates, an update mechanism is proposed to select more precise tracking results to avoid incorrect model updates. In the experiments, the robustness of the proposed system is evaluated and quantitative results are provided for performance analysis. Experimental results show that the proposed system can provide the best success rate and has more accurate tracking results than other well-known algorithms.

Approaches to acceptable risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whipple, C

Several alternative approaches to address the question {open_quotes}How safe is safe enough?{close_quotes} are reviewed and an attempt is made to apply the reasoning behind these approaches to the issue of acceptability of radiation exposures received in space. The approaches to the issue of the acceptability of technological risk described here are primarily analytical, and are drawn from examples in the management of environmental health risks. These include risk-based approaches, in which specific quantitative risk targets determine the acceptability of an activity, and cost-benefit and decision analysis, which generally focus on the estimation and evaluation of risks, benefits and costs, inmore » a framework that balances these factors against each other. These analytical methods tend by their quantitative nature to emphasize the magnitude of risks, costs and alternatives, and to downplay other factors, especially those that are not easily expressed in quantitative terms, that affect acceptance or rejection of risk. Such other factors include the issues of risk perceptions and how and by whom risk decisions are made.« less

Trauma Exposure, PTSD, and HIV Sexual Risk Behaviors among Labor Migrants from Tajikistan

PubMed Central

Weine, Stevan; Bahromov, Mahbat; Loue, Sana; Owens, Linda

2012-01-01

Little is known about the role of trauma and PTSD symptoms in the context of migration-associated HIV risk behaviors. A survey of Tajik married male seasonal labor migrants in Moscow was completed by 200 workers from 4 bazaars and 200 workers from 18 construction sites as part of a mixed method (quantitative and qualitative) study. The mean PC-PTSD score was 1.2 with one-quarter of migrants scoring at or above the cutoff of 3 indicating likely PTSD diagnosis. PC-PTSD score was directly correlated with both direct and indirect trauma exposure, but PC-PTSD score did not predict either HIV sexual risk behaviors or HIV protective behaviors. HIV sexual risk behavior was associated with higher indirect trauma exposure. PC-PTSD score was associated with some indicators of increased caution (e.g. more talking with partners about HIV and condoms; more use of condom when drinking). Qualitative findings were used to illustrate the differences between direct and indirect traumas in terms of HIV sexual risk. The study findings call for future efforts to address labor migrant's mental health needs and to integrate trauma dimensions into HIV prevention. PMID:22261829

Real-Time Safety Risk Assessment Based on a Real-Time Location System for Hydropower Construction Sites

PubMed Central

Fan, Qixiang; Qiang, Maoshan

2014-01-01

The concern for workers' safety in construction industry is reflected in many studies focusing on static safety risk identification and assessment. However, studies on real-time safety risk assessment aimed at reducing uncertainty and supporting quick response are rare. A method for real-time safety risk assessment (RTSRA) to implement a dynamic evaluation of worker safety states on construction site has been proposed in this paper. The method provides construction managers who are in charge of safety with more abundant information to reduce the uncertainty of the site. A quantitative calculation formula, integrating the influence of static and dynamic hazards and that of safety supervisors, is established to link the safety risk of workers with the locations of on-site assets. By employing the hidden Markov model (HMM), the RTSRA provides a mechanism for processing location data provided by the real-time location system (RTLS) and analyzing the probability distributions of different states in terms of false positives and negatives. Simulation analysis demonstrated the logic of the proposed method and how it works. Application case shows that the proposed RTSRA is both feasible and effective in managing construction project safety concerns. PMID:25114958

Real-time safety risk assessment based on a real-time location system for hydropower construction sites.

PubMed

Jiang, Hanchen; Lin, Peng; Fan, Qixiang; Qiang, Maoshan

2014-01-01

The concern for workers' safety in construction industry is reflected in many studies focusing on static safety risk identification and assessment. However, studies on real-time safety risk assessment aimed at reducing uncertainty and supporting quick response are rare. A method for real-time safety risk assessment (RTSRA) to implement a dynamic evaluation of worker safety states on construction site has been proposed in this paper. The method provides construction managers who are in charge of safety with more abundant information to reduce the uncertainty of the site. A quantitative calculation formula, integrating the influence of static and dynamic hazards and that of safety supervisors, is established to link the safety risk of workers with the locations of on-site assets. By employing the hidden Markov model (HMM), the RTSRA provides a mechanism for processing location data provided by the real-time location system (RTLS) and analyzing the probability distributions of different states in terms of false positives and negatives. Simulation analysis demonstrated the logic of the proposed method and how it works. Application case shows that the proposed RTSRA is both feasible and effective in managing construction project safety concerns.

Trauma exposure, PTSD, and HIV sexual risk behaviors among labor migrants from Tajikistan.

PubMed

Weine, Stevan; Bahromov, Mahbat; Loue, Sana; Owens, Linda

2012-08-01

Little is known about the role of trauma and PTSD symptoms in the context of migration-associated HIV risk behaviors. A survey of Tajik married male seasonal labor migrants in Moscow was completed by 200 workers from 4 bazaars and 200 workers from 18 construction sites as part of a mixed method (quantitative and qualitative) study. The mean PC-PTSD score was 1.2 with one-quarter of migrants scoring at or above the cutoff of 3 indicating likely PTSD diagnosis. PC-PTSD score was directly correlated with both direct and indirect trauma exposure, but PC-PTSD score did not predict either HIV sexual risk behaviors or HIV protective behaviors. HIV sexual risk behavior was associated with higher indirect trauma exposure. PC-PTSD score was associated with some indicators of increased caution (e.g., more talking with partners about HIV and condoms; more use of condom when drinking). Qualitative findings were used to illustrate the differences between direct and indirect traumas in terms of HIV sexual risk. The study findings call for future efforts to address labor migrant's mental health needs and to integrate trauma dimensions into HIV prevention.

A Framework for Mixing Methods in Quantitative Measurement Development, Validation, and Revision: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luyt, Russell

2012-01-01

A framework for quantitative measurement development, validation, and revision that incorporates both qualitative and quantitative methods is introduced. It extends and adapts Adcock and Collier's work, and thus, facilitates understanding of quantitative measurement development, validation, and revision as an integrated and cyclical set of…

Prediction of trabecular bone qualitative properties using scanning quantitative ultrasound

PubMed Central

Qin, Yi-Xian; Lin, Wei; Mittra, Erik; Xia, Yi; Cheng, Jiqi; Judex, Stefan; Rubin, Clint; Müller, Ralph

2012-01-01

Microgravity induced bone loss represents a critical health problem in astronauts, particularly occurred in weight-supporting skeleton, which leads to osteopenia and increase of fracture risk. Lack of suitable evaluation modality makes it difficult for monitoring skeletal status in long term space mission and increases potential risk of complication. Such disuse osteopenia and osteoporosis compromise trabecular bone density, and architectural and mechanical properties. While X-ray based imaging would not be practical in space, quantitative ultrasound may provide advantages to characterize bone density and strength through wave propagation in complex trabecular structure. This study used a scanning confocal acoustic diagnostic and navigation system (SCAN) to evaluate trabecular bone quality in 60 cubic trabecular samples harvested from adult sheep. Ultrasound image based SCAN measurements in structural and strength properties were validated by μCT and compressive mechanical testing. This result indicated a moderately strong negative correlations observed between broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA) and μCT-determined bone volume fraction (BV/TV, R2=0.53). Strong correlations were observed between ultrasound velocity (UV) and bone’s mechanical strength and structural parameters, i.e., bulk Young’s modulus (R2=0.67) and BV/TV (R2=0.85). The predictions for bone density and mechanical strength were significantly improved by using a linear combination of both BUA and UV, yielding R2=0.92 for BV/TV and R2=0.71 for bulk Young’s modulus. These results imply that quantitative ultrasound can characterize trabecular structural and mechanical properties through measurements of particular ultrasound parameters, and potentially provide an excellent estimation for bone’s structural integrity. PMID:23976803

Prediction of trabecular bone qualitative properties using scanning quantitative ultrasound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Yi-Xian; Lin, Wei; Mittra, Erik; Xia, Yi; Cheng, Jiqi; Judex, Stefan; Rubin, Clint; Müller, Ralph

2013-11-01

Microgravity induced bone loss represents a critical health problem in astronauts, particularly occurred in weight-supporting skeleton, which leads to osteopenia and increase of fracture risk. Lack of suitable evaluation modality makes it difficult for monitoring skeletal status in long term space mission and increases potential risk of complication. Such disuse osteopenia and osteoporosis compromise trabecular bone density, and architectural and mechanical properties. While X-ray based imaging would not be practical in space, quantitative ultrasound may provide advantages to characterize bone density and strength through wave propagation in complex trabecular structure. This study used a scanning confocal acoustic diagnostic and navigation system (SCAN) to evaluate trabecular bone quality in 60 cubic trabecular samples harvested from adult sheep. Ultrasound image based SCAN measurements in structural and strength properties were validated by μCT and compressive mechanical testing. This result indicated a moderately strong negative correlations observed between broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA) and μCT-determined bone volume fraction (BV/TV, R2=0.53). Strong correlations were observed between ultrasound velocity (UV) and bone's mechanical strength and structural parameters, i.e., bulk Young's modulus (R2=0.67) and BV/TV (R2=0.85). The predictions for bone density and mechanical strength were significantly improved by using a linear combination of both BUA and UV, yielding R2=0.92 for BV/TV and R2=0.71 for bulk Young's modulus. These results imply that quantitative ultrasound can characterize trabecular structural and mechanical properties through measurements of particular ultrasound parameters, and potentially provide an excellent estimation for bone's structural integrity.

Integrating quantitative thinking into an introductory biology course improves students' mathematical reasoning in biological contexts.

PubMed

Hester, Susan; Buxner, Sanlyn; Elfring, Lisa; Nagy, Lisa

2014-01-01

Recent calls for improving undergraduate biology education have emphasized the importance of students learning to apply quantitative skills to biological problems. Motivated by students' apparent inability to transfer their existing quantitative skills to biological contexts, we designed and taught an introductory molecular and cell biology course in which we integrated application of prerequisite mathematical skills with biology content and reasoning throughout all aspects of the course. In this paper, we describe the principles of our course design and present illustrative examples of course materials integrating mathematics and biology. We also designed an outcome assessment made up of items testing students' understanding of biology concepts and their ability to apply mathematical skills in biological contexts and administered it as a pre/postcourse test to students in the experimental section and other sections of the same course. Precourse results confirmed students' inability to spontaneously transfer their prerequisite mathematics skills to biological problems. Pre/postcourse outcome assessment comparisons showed that, compared with students in other sections, students in the experimental section made greater gains on integrated math/biology items. They also made comparable gains on biology items, indicating that integrating quantitative skills into an introductory biology course does not have a deleterious effect on students' biology learning.

Integrating Quantitative Thinking into an Introductory Biology Course Improves Students’ Mathematical Reasoning in Biological Contexts

PubMed Central

Hester, Susan; Buxner, Sanlyn; Elfring, Lisa; Nagy, Lisa

2014-01-01

Recent calls for improving undergraduate biology education have emphasized the importance of students learning to apply quantitative skills to biological problems. Motivated by students’ apparent inability to transfer their existing quantitative skills to biological contexts, we designed and taught an introductory molecular and cell biology course in which we integrated application of prerequisite mathematical skills with biology content and reasoning throughout all aspects of the course. In this paper, we describe the principles of our course design and present illustrative examples of course materials integrating mathematics and biology. We also designed an outcome assessment made up of items testing students’ understanding of biology concepts and their ability to apply mathematical skills in biological contexts and administered it as a pre/postcourse test to students in the experimental section and other sections of the same course. Precourse results confirmed students’ inability to spontaneously transfer their prerequisite mathematics skills to biological problems. Pre/postcourse outcome assessment comparisons showed that, compared with students in other sections, students in the experimental section made greater gains on integrated math/biology items. They also made comparable gains on biology items, indicating that integrating quantitative skills into an introductory biology course does not have a deleterious effect on students’ biology learning. PMID:24591504

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guarro, Sergio B.

2010-01-01

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

Developments in veterinary herd health programmes on dairy farms: a review.

PubMed

Noordhuizen, J P; Wentink, G H

2001-11-01

This review article addresses some major developments in herd health programmes for dairy farms over the last decades. It focuses particularly on herd health and production management programmes that use protocols and monitoring activities. The article further emphasizes the need for merging herd health programmes with quantitative epidemiological principles and methods. Subsequently, this article points to the latest developments regarding quality assurance in the dairy sector and some quality management methods. Quality should be regarded in its broadest sense. The importance of integrating veterinary herd health programmes and quality (risk) management support at a dairy farm level is stressed. Examples are provided.

Nonsuicidal self-injury among lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender populations: an integrative review.

PubMed

Jackman, Kate; Honig, Judy; Bockting, Walter

2016-12-01

To conduct an integrative review of nonsuicidal self-injury among lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender populations to better understand the prevalence; to identify the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender subgroups at increased risk for nonsuicidal self-injury; and to examine the risk factors associated with nonsuicidal self-injury among lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender populations. Nonsuicidal self-injury, defined as intentional injury to the body's surface without intent to die, is a significant mental health concern among adolescents and adults. Mental health disparities in lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender populations, including anxiety, depression and suicidality, have been documented in the scientific literature with little focus on findings about nonsuicidal self-injury. Integrative literature review of published quantitative and qualitative empirical research. A literature search of 11 on-line databases was conducted of articles published through April 2015. Keywords were used to identify articles about lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender populations and nonsuicidal self-injury. After screening by title, abstract and full text, 26 articles were included in this review. The literature synthesised demonstrates a consistent pattern of increased prevalence of nonsuicidal self-injury among sexual and gender minority populations compared with heterosexual peers. This body of literature indicates which subgroups of the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender populations appear to be at increased risk for nonsuicidal self-injury and which specific factors contributing to vulnerability to nonsuicidal self-injury among these populations. Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender populations are at higher risk for nonsuicidal self-injury compared with the general population. Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender-specific and general risk factors appear to contribute to this heightened vulnerability. Clinical nurses should screen for nonsuicidal self-injury and for sexual and gender minority identity in all of their patients. Comprehensive assessment of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender patients presenting with nonsuicidal self-injury may lead to identification of risk factors that can be addressed through nursing interventions. Nurse researchers and clinicians should take an active role in developing and implementing evidenced-based tailored interventions to reduce the higher vulnerability to nonsuicidal self-injury among lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender populations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Valuing the subsurface pathogen treatment barrier in water recycling via aquifers for drinking supplies.

PubMed

Page, Declan; Dillon, Peter; Toze, Simon; Bixio, Davide; Genthe, Bettina; Jiménez Cisneros, Blanca Elena; Wintgens, Thomas

2010-03-01

A quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was performed at four managed aquifer recharge (MAR) sites (Australia, South Africa, Belgium, Mexico) where reclaimed wastewater and stormwater is recycled via aquifers for drinking water supplies, using the same risk-based approach that is used for public water supplies. For each of the sites, the aquifer treatment barrier was assessed for its log(10) removal capacity much like for other water treatment technologies. This information was then integrated into a broader risk assessment to determine the human health burden from the four MAR sites. For the Australian and South African cases, managing the aquifer treatment barrier was found to be critical for the schemes to have low risk. For the Belgian case study, the large treatment trains both in terms of pre- and post-aquifer recharge ensures that the risk is always low. In the Mexico case study, the risk was high due to the lack of pre-treatment and the low residence times of the recharge water in the aquifer. A further sensitivity analysis demonstrated that human health risk can be managed if aquifers are integrated into a treatment train to attenuate pathogens. However, reduction in human health disease burden (as measured in disability adjusted life years, DALYs) varied depending upon the number of pathogens in the recharge source water. The beta-Poisson dose response curve used for translating rotavirus and Cryptosporidium numbers into DALYs coupled with their slow environmental decay rates means poor quality injectant leads to aquifers having reduced value to reduce DALYs. For these systems, like the Mexican case study, longer residence times are required to meet their DALYs guideline for drinking water. Nevertheless the results showed that the risks from pathogens can still be reduced and recharging via an aquifer is safer than discharging directly into surface water bodies. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative background parenchymal uptake on molecular breast imaging and breast cancer risk: a case-control study.

PubMed

Hruska, Carrie B; Geske, Jennifer R; Swanson, Tiffinee N; Mammel, Alyssa N; Lake, David S; Manduca, Armando; Conners, Amy Lynn; Whaley, Dana H; Scott, Christopher G; Carter, Rickey E; Rhodes, Deborah J; O'Connor, Michael K; Vachon, Celine M

2018-06-05

Background parenchymal uptake (BPU), which refers to the level of Tc-99m sestamibi uptake within normal fibroglandular tissue on molecular breast imaging (MBI), has been identified as a breast cancer risk factor, independent of mammographic density. Prior analyses have used subjective categories to describe BPU. We evaluate a new quantitative method for assessing BPU by testing its reproducibility, comparing quantitative results with previously established subjective BPU categories, and determining the association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer risk. Two nonradiologist operators independently performed region-of-interest analysis on MBI images viewed in conjunction with corresponding digital mammograms. Quantitative BPU was defined as a unitless ratio of the average pixel intensity (counts/pixel) within the fibroglandular tissue versus the average pixel intensity in fat. Operator agreement and the correlation of quantitative BPU measures with subjective BPU categories assessed by expert radiologists were determined. Percent density on mammograms was estimated using Cumulus. The association of quantitative BPU with breast cancer (per one unit BPU) was examined within an established case-control study of 62 incident breast cancer cases and 177 matched controls. Quantitative BPU ranged from 0.4 to 3.2 across all subjects and was on average higher in cases compared to controls (1.4 versus 1.2, p < 0.007 for both operators). Quantitative BPU was strongly correlated with subjective BPU categories (Spearman's r = 0.59 to 0.69, p < 0.0001, for each paired combination of two operators and two radiologists). Interoperator and intraoperator agreement in the quantitative BPU measure, assessed by intraclass correlation, was 0.92 and 0.98, respectively. Quantitative BPU measures showed either no correlation or weak negative correlation with mammographic percent density. In a model adjusted for body mass index and percent density, higher quantitative BPU was associated with increased risk of breast cancer for both operators (OR = 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-10.1, and 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.7). Quantitative measurement of BPU, defined as the ratio of average counts in fibroglandular tissue relative to that in fat, can be reliably performed by nonradiologist operators with a simple region-of-interest analysis tool. Similar to results obtained with subjective BPU categories, quantitative BPU is a functional imaging biomarker of breast cancer risk, independent of mammographic density and hormonal factors.

Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Data in Mixed Methods Research--Challenges and Benefits

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Almalki, Sami

2016-01-01

This paper is concerned with investigating the integration of quantitative and qualitative data in mixed methods research and whether, in spite of its challenges, it can be of positive benefit to many investigative studies. The paper introduces the topic, defines the terms with which this subject deals and undertakes a literature review to outline…

A structured review of reasons for ecstasy use and related behaviours: pointers for future research

PubMed Central

Peters, Gjalt-Jorn Ygram; Kok, Gerjo

2009-01-01

Background While the health risks of using ecstasy warrant intervention development, a recent meta-analysis of determinants of ecstasy use identified a number of lacunae in the literature. Specifically, no studies were included that address behaviours other than 'using ecstasy' (e.g. 'trying out ecstasy' or 'ceasing ecstasy use'). However, because meta-analyses aim to integrate study results quantitatively, the resulting rigid exclusion criteria cause many studies to be discarded on the basis of their qualitative methodology. Such qualitative studies may nonetheless provide valuable insights to guide future research. To provide an overview of these insights regarding ecstasy use, the current study summarizes and combines what is known from qualitative and exploratory quantitative literature on ecstasy use. Methods The databases PsycINFO and MedLine were searched for publications reporting reasons for ecstasy use and related behaviour, and the results were structured and discussed per behaviour and compared over behaviours. Results Two main categories of reasons were found. The first category comprised reasons to start using ecstasy, use ecstasy, use ecstasy more often, and refrain from ceasing ecstasy use. The second category comprised reasons to refrain from starting to use ecstasy, use less ecstasy, and cease using ecstasy. Reasons for related behaviours within each of these two categories appear to differ, but not as substantially as between the two categories. A large number of reasons that were not yet explored in quantitative research emerged. Conclusion The current summary and combination of exploratory studies yields useful lists of reasons for each behaviour. Before these lists can inform interventions, however, they beg quantitative verification. Also, similarity of determinant configurations of different behaviours can be assessed by addressing determinants of several behaviours in one study. Another important finding is that meta-analytical integration of the literature may overlook important findings and implications. Thus, qualitative reviews remain useful instruments in setting the research agenda. PMID:19594926

Burnout in Nurses Working With Youth With Chronic Pain: A Mixed-Methods Analysis.

PubMed

Rodrigues, Nikita P; Cohen, Lindsey L; Swartout, Kevin M; Trotochaud, Karen; Murray, Eileen

2018-05-01

Nursing is a rewarding but also challenging profession. Nurses are at risk for burnout and premature exit from the profession, which is detrimental to them, their patients, and the healthcare system. There are few studies examining the unique correlates of burnout in nurses working with pediatric populations. The current 2-study project used mixed-methods (qualitative and then quantitative) analysis to explore burnout in nurses working in an inpatient unit with youth with chronic pain. Study I participants included all of the 32 nurses who worked in an inpatient pediatric unit, which admits patients with chronic pain. Qualitative analyses of focus groups were used to extract themes. These themes were examined via a quantitative battery completed by 41 nurses from 2 inpatient pediatric units with youth with chronic pain. The themes were burnout, moral distress, negative beliefs about chronic pain, barriers to pain management, fear of losing compassion, coworker support as a coping method, time worked in the unit, professional self-efficacy, and negative views of the hospital environment. Quantitative results supported most of the qualitative findings, and taken together, the findings supported a model of burnout in nurses working with youth with chronic pain. Conclusions We integrated qualitative and quantitative findings to develop a model of nurse burnout. This model provides a framework for evaluating and targeting burnout in nurses working with pediatric patients with chronic pain.

Usefulness of the admission electrocardiogram to predict long-term outcomes after non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome (from the FRISC II, ICTUS, and RITA-3 [FIR] Trials).

PubMed

Damman, Peter; Holmvang, Lene; Tijssen, Jan G P; Lagerqvist, Bo; Clayton, Tim C; Pocock, Stuart J; Windhausen, Fons; Hirsch, Alexander; Fox, Keith A A; Wallentin, Lars; de Winter, Robbert J

2012-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the independent prognostic value of qualitative and quantitative admission electrocardiographic (ECG) analysis regarding long-term outcomes after non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS). From the Fragmin and Fast Revascularization During Instability in Coronary Artery Disease (FRISC II), Invasive Versus Conservative Treatment in Unstable Coronary Syndromes (ICTUS), and Randomized Intervention Trial of Unstable Angina 3 (RITA-3) patient-pooled database, 5,420 patients with NSTE-ACS with qualitative ECG data, of whom 2,901 had quantitative data, were included in this analysis. The main outcome was 5-year cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated with Cox regression models, and adjustments were made for established outcome predictors. The additional discriminative value was assessed with the category-less net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement indexes. In the 5,420 patients, the presence of ST-segment depression (≥1 mm; adjusted HR 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25 to 1.63) and left bundle branch block (adjusted HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.28) were independently associated with long-term cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction. Risk increases were short and long term. On quantitative ECG analysis, cumulative ST-segment depression (≥5 mm; adjusted HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.70), the presence of left bundle branch block (adjusted HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.36 to 3.40) or ≥6 leads with inverse T waves (adjusted HR 1.22, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.55) was independently associated with long-term outcomes. No interaction was observed with treatment strategy. No improvements in net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were observed after the addition of quantitative characteristics to a model including qualitative characteristics. In conclusion, in the FRISC II, ICTUS, and RITA-3 NSTE-ACS patient-pooled data set, admission ECG characteristics provided long-term prognostic value for cardiovascular death or myocardial infarction. Quantitative ECG characteristics provided no incremental discrimination compared to qualitative data. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative and qualitative approaches in the study of poverty and adolescent development: separation or integration?

PubMed

Leung, Janet T Y; Shek, Daniel T L

2011-01-01

This paper examines the use of quantitative and qualitative approaches to study the impact of economic disadvantage on family processes and adolescent development. Quantitative research has the merits of objectivity, good predictive and explanatory power, parsimony, precision and sophistication of analysis. Qualitative research, in contrast, provides a detailed, holistic, in-depth understanding of social reality and allows illumination of new insights. With the pragmatic considerations of methodological appropriateness, design flexibility, and situational responsiveness in responding to the research inquiry, a mixed methods approach could be a possibility of integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches and offers an alternative strategy to study the impact of economic disadvantage on family processes and adolescent development.

ImatraNMR: Novel software for batch integration and analysis of quantitative NMR spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mäkelä, A. V.; Heikkilä, O.; Kilpeläinen, I.; Heikkinen, S.

2011-08-01

Quantitative NMR spectroscopy is a useful and important tool for analysis of various mixtures. Recently, in addition of traditional quantitative 1D 1H and 13C NMR methods, a variety of pulse sequences aimed for quantitative or semiquantitative analysis have been developed. To obtain actual usable results from quantitative spectra, they must be processed and analyzed with suitable software. Currently, there are many processing packages available from spectrometer manufacturers and third party developers, and most of them are capable of analyzing and integration of quantitative spectra. However, they are mainly aimed for processing single or few spectra, and are slow and difficult to use when large numbers of spectra and signals are being analyzed, even when using pre-saved integration areas or custom scripting features. In this article, we present a novel software, ImatraNMR, designed for batch analysis of quantitative spectra. In addition to capability of analyzing large number of spectra, it provides results in text and CSV formats, allowing further data-analysis using spreadsheet programs or general analysis programs, such as Matlab. The software is written with Java, and thus it should run in any platform capable of providing Java Runtime Environment version 1.6 or newer, however, currently it has only been tested with Windows and Linux (Ubuntu 10.04). The software is free for non-commercial use, and is provided with source code upon request.

Detection of Leishmania infantum by real-time PCR in a canine blood bank.

PubMed

Tabar, M D; Roura, X; Francino, O; Altet, L; Ruiz de Gopegui, R

2008-07-01

Risk for transmission of Leishmania infantum from blood products has been largely demonstrated in human and veterinary literature. Appropriate screening of canine blood donors is important especially in an endemic area such as Barcelona (Spain). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the presence of L infantum DNA parasites by real-time quantitative PCR in our canine blood bank. Samples from blood products obtained from 92 canine blood donors were assayed for L infantum by means of real-time PCR amplification and quantification. The prevalence of quantitative PCR-positive blood samples among healthy seronegative blood donors was 19.6 per cent. The results of this study show that L infantum infection is common in canine blood donors and their blood products in an endemic area, despite a negative commercial serological screening for infectious diseases. Therefore, screening by PCR should be included in an integrated approach to evaluate L infantum infection among potential blood donors.

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, J.; Boley, L.; Butler, D.; Foy, M.; Goodenow, D.; Griffin, D.; Keenan, A.; Kerstman, E.; Melton, S.; McGuire, K.;

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Pharmaceutical Products.

PubMed

Eissa, Mostafa Essam

2017-01-01

Monitoring of microbiological quality in the pharmaceutical industry is an important criterion that is required to justify safe product release to the drug market. Good manufacturing practice and efficient control on bioburden level of product components are critical parameters that influence the microbiological cleanliness of medicinal products. However, because microbial dispersion through the samples follows Poisson distribution, the rate of detection of microbiologically defective samples lambda (λ) decreases when the number of defective units per batch decreases. When integrating a dose-response model of infection (P inf ) of a specific objectionable microbe with a contamination module, the overall probability of infection from a single batch of pharmaceutical product can be estimated. The combination of P inf with detectability chance of the test (P det ) will yield a value that could be used as a quantitative measure of the possibility of passing contaminated batch units of product with a certain load of a specific pathogen and infecting the final consumer without being detected in the firm. The simulation study can be used to assess the risk of contamination and infection from objectionable microorganisms for sterile and non-sterile products. LAY ABSTRACT: Microbial contamination of pharmaceutical products is a global problem that may lead to infection and possibly death. While reputable pharmaceutical companies strive to deliver microbiologically safe products, it would be helpful to apply an assessment system for the current risk associated with pharmaceutical batches delivered to the drug market. The current methodology may be helpful also in determining the degree of improvement or deterioration on the batch processing flow until reaching the final consumer. Moreover, the present system is flexible and can be applied to other industries such as food, cosmetics, or medical devices manufacturing and processing fields to assess the microbiological risk of the processed and manufactured batch. © PDA, Inc. 2017.

Challenges to Superfund Community Nutrition Programs in Kentucky

PubMed Central

Gaetke, Lisa; Gaetke, Kara; Bowen, Christa

2008-01-01

Since 2000, the University of Kentucky's (UK's) Superfund Basic Research Program (SBRP) Community Outreach Core has provided support and guidance through Superfund Community Action through Nutrition (SCAN) programs, which meet the needs of individuals and communities affected by environmental contaminants. It has been shown that nutrition may modulate the toxicity of Superfund chemicals. SCAN programs integrate nutrition education, nutrition science research, and health communication to increase understanding of health risks associated with residing near Superfund sites. Two critical tasks must be accomplished. SCAN personnel must identify and recruit affected community members, and then, offer meaningful programs. Certain quantitative outcome measures and legal issues presented both challenges and opportunities. Community members preferred qualitative evaluation discussions, which showed increased knowledge and improved attitudes following SCAN programs. SCAN, in full partnership with affected communities, translates safe, effective nutrition information to reduce health risks associated with exposure to Superfund pollutants. PMID:18443657

Challenges to superfund community nutrition programs in kentucky.

PubMed

Gaetke, Lisa; Gaetke, Kara; Bowen, Christa

2008-03-01

Since 2000, the University of Kentucky's (UK's) Superfund Basic Research Program (SBRP) Community Outreach Core has provided support and guidance through Superfund Community Action through Nutrition (SCAN) programs, which meet the needs of individuals and communities affected by environmental contaminants. It has been shown that nutrition may modulate the toxicity of Superfund chemicals. SCAN programs integrate nutrition education, nutrition science research, and health communication to increase understanding of health risks associated with residing near Superfund sites. Two critical tasks must be accomplished. SCAN personnel must identify and recruit affected community members, and then, offer meaningful programs. Certain quantitative outcome measures and legal issues presented both challenges and opportunities. Community members preferred qualitative evaluation discussions, which showed increased knowledge and improved attitudes following SCAN programs. SCAN, in full partnership with affected communities, translates safe, effective nutrition information to reduce health risks associated with exposure to Superfund pollutants.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

EPA Science Inventory

This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

Global and local health burden trade-off through the hybridisation of quantitative microbial risk assessment and life cycle assessment to aid water management.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yumi; Peters, Greg M; Ashbolt, Nicholas J; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Khan, Stuart J

2015-08-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) are commonly used to evaluate potential human health impacts associated with proposed or existing infrastructure and products. Each approach has a distinct objective and, consequently, their conclusions may be inconsistent or contradictory. It is proposed that the integration of elements of QRA and LCA may provide a more holistic approach to health impact assessment. Here we examine the possibility of merging LCA assessed human health impacts with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) for waterborne pathogen impacts, expressed with the common health metric, disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The example of a recent large-scale water recycling project in Sydney, Australia was used to identify and demonstrate the potential advantages and current limitations of this approach. A comparative analysis of two scenarios - with and without the development of this project - was undertaken for this purpose. LCA and QMRA were carried out independently for the two scenarios to compare human health impacts, as measured by DALYs lost per year. LCA results suggested that construction of the project would lead to an increased number of DALYs lost per year, while estimated disease burden resulting from microbial exposures indicated that it would result in the loss of fewer DALYs per year than the alternative scenario. By merging the results of the LCA and QMRA, we demonstrate the advantages in providing a more comprehensive assessment of human disease burden for the two scenarios, in particular, the importance of considering the results of both LCA and QRA in a comparative assessment of decision alternatives to avoid problem shifting. The application of DALYs as a common measure between the two approaches was found to be useful for this purpose. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic and environmental determinants of violence risk in psychotic disorders: a multivariate quantitative genetic study of 1.8 million Swedish twins and siblings

PubMed Central

Sariaslan, A; Larsson, H; Fazel, S

2016-01-01

Patients diagnosed with psychotic disorders (for example, schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) have elevated risks of committing violent acts, particularly if they are comorbid with substance misuse. Despite recent insights from quantitative and molecular genetic studies demonstrating considerable pleiotropy in the genetic architecture of these phenotypes, there is currently a lack of large-scale studies that have specifically examined the aetiological links between psychotic disorders and violence. Using a sample of all Swedish individuals born between 1958 and 1989 (n=3 332 101), we identified a total of 923 259 twin-sibling pairs. Patients were identified using the National Patient Register using validated algorithms based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 8–10. Univariate quantitative genetic models revealed that all phenotypes (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, substance misuse, and violent crime) were highly heritable (h2=53–71%). Multivariate models further revealed that schizophrenia was a stronger predictor of violence (r=0.32; 95% confidence interval: 0.30–0.33) than bipolar disorder (r=0.23; 0.21–0.25), and large proportions (51–67%) of these phenotypic correlations were explained by genetic factors shared between each disorder, substance misuse, and violence. Importantly, we found that genetic influences that were unrelated to substance misuse explained approximately a fifth (21% 20–22%) of the correlation with violent criminality in bipolar disorder but none of the same correlation in schizophrenia (Pbipolar disorder<0.001; Pschizophrenia=0.55). These findings highlight the problems of not disentangling common and unique sources of covariance across genetically similar phenotypes as the latter sources may include aetiologically important clues. Clinically, these findings underline the importance of assessing risk of different phenotypes together and integrating interventions for psychiatric disorders, substance misuse, and violence. PMID:26666206

[Assessment of the impacts of soil erosion on water environment based on the integration of soil erosion process and landscape pattern].

PubMed

Liu, Yu; Wu, Bing-Fang; Zeng, Yuan; Zhang, Lei

2013-09-01

The integration of the effects of landscape pattern to the assessment of the impacts of soil erosion on eco-environmental is of practical significance in methodological prospect, being able to provide an approach for identifying water body's sediment source area, assessing the potential risks of sediment export of on-site soil erosion to the target water body, and evaluating the capacity of regional landscape pattern in preventing soil loss. In this paper, the RUSLE model was applied to simulate the on-site soil erosion rate. With the consideration of the soil retention potential of vegetation cover and topography, a quantitative assessment was conducted on the impacts of soil erosion in the water source region of the middle route for South-to-North Water Transfer Project on rivers and reservoirs by delineating landscape pattern at point (or cell) scale and sub-watershed level. At point (or grid cell) scale, the index of soil erosion impact intensity (I) was developed as an indicator of the potential risk of sediment export to the water bodies. At sub-watershed level, the landscape leakiness index (LI) was employed to indicate the sediment retention capacity of a given landscape pattern. The results revealed that integrating the information of landscape pattern and the indices of soil erosion process could spatially effectively reflect the impact intensity of in situ soil erosion on water bodies. The LI was significantly exponentially correlated to the mean sediment retention capacity of landscape and the mean vegetation coverage of watershed, and the sediment yield at sub-watershed scale was significantly correlated to the LI in an exponential regression. It could be concluded that the approach of delineating landscape pattern based on soil erosion process and the integration of the information of landscape pattern with its soil retention potential could provide a new approach for the risk evaluation of soil erosion.

"An integrative formal model of motivation and decision making: The MGPM*": Correction to Ballard et al. (2016).

PubMed

2017-02-01

Reports an error in "An integrative formal model of motivation and decision making: The MGPM*" by Timothy Ballard, Gillian Yeo, Shayne Loft, Jeffrey B. Vancouver and Andrew Neal ( Journal of Applied Psychology , 2016[Sep], Vol 101[9], 1240-1265). Equation A3 contained an error. This correct equation is provided in the erratum. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2016-28692-001.) We develop and test an integrative formal model of motivation and decision making. The model, referred to as the extended multiple-goal pursuit model (MGPM*), is an integration of the multiple-goal pursuit model (Vancouver, Weinhardt, & Schmidt, 2010) and decision field theory (Busemeyer & Townsend, 1993). Simulations of the model generated predictions regarding the effects of goal type (approach vs. avoidance), risk, and time sensitivity on prioritization. We tested these predictions in an experiment in which participants pursued different combinations of approach and avoidance goals under different levels of risk. The empirical results were consistent with the predictions of the MGPM*. Specifically, participants pursuing 1 approach and 1 avoidance goal shifted priority from the approach to the avoidance goal over time. Among participants pursuing 2 approach goals, those with low time sensitivity prioritized the goal with the larger discrepancy, whereas those with high time sensitivity prioritized the goal with the smaller discrepancy. Participants pursuing 2 avoidance goals generally prioritized the goal with the smaller discrepancy. Finally, all of these effects became weaker as the level of risk increased. We used quantitative model comparison to show that the MGPM* explained the data better than the original multiple-goal pursuit model, and that the major extensions from the original model were justified. The MGPM* represents a step forward in the development of a general theory of decision making during multiple-goal pursuit. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Key Elements for Judging the Quality of a Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Fenner-Crisp, Penelope A.; Dellarco, Vicki L.

2016-01-01

Background: Many reports have been published that contain recommendations for improving the quality, transparency, and usefulness of decision making for risk assessments prepared by agencies of the U.S. federal government. A substantial measure of consensus has emerged regarding the characteristics that high-quality assessments should possess. Objective: The goal was to summarize the key characteristics of a high-quality assessment as identified in the consensus-building process and to integrate them into a guide for use by decision makers, risk assessors, peer reviewers and other interested stakeholders to determine if an assessment meets the criteria for high quality. Discussion: Most of the features cited in the guide are applicable to any type of assessment, whether it encompasses one, two, or all four phases of the risk-assessment paradigm; whether it is qualitative or quantitative; and whether it is screening level or highly sophisticated and complex. Other features are tailored to specific elements of an assessment. Just as agencies at all levels of government are responsible for determining the effectiveness of their programs, so too should they determine the effectiveness of their assessments used in support of their regulatory decisions. Furthermore, if a nongovernmental entity wishes to have its assessments considered in the governmental regulatory decision-making process, then these assessments should be judged in the same rigorous manner and be held to similar standards. Conclusions: The key characteristics of a high-quality assessment can be summarized and integrated into a guide for judging whether an assessment possesses the desired features of high quality, transparency, and usefulness. Citation: Fenner-Crisp PA, Dellarco VL. 2016. Key elements for judging the quality of a risk assessment. Environ Health Perspect 124:1127–1135; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510483 PMID:26862984

Impact of a cis-associated gene expression SNP in 20q11.22 on bipolar disorder susceptibility, hippocampal structure and cognitive performance

PubMed Central

Li, Ming; Luo, Xiong-jian; Landén, Mikael; Bergen, Sarah E.; Hultman, Christina M.; Li, Xiao; Zhang, Wen; Yao, Yong-Gang; Zhang, Chen; Liu, Jiewei; Mattheisen, Manuel; Cichon, Sven; Mühleisen, Thomas W.; Degenhardt, Franziska A.; Nöthen, Markus M.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Grigoroiu-Serbanescu, Maria; Li, Hao; Fuller, Chris K.; Chen, Chunhui; Dong, Qi; Chen, Chuansheng; Jamain, Stéphane; Leboyer, Marion; Bellivier, Frank; Etain, Bruno; Kahn, Jean-Pierre; Henry, Chantal; Preisig, Martin; Kutalik, Zoltán; Castelao, Enrique; Wright, Adam; Mitchell, Philip B.; Fullerton, Janice M.; Schofield, Peter R.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Medland, Sarah E.; Gordon, Scott D.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Rietschel, Marcella; Liu, Chunyu; Kleinman, Joel E.; Hyde, Thomas M.; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Su, Bing

2016-01-01

Summary Bipolar disorder (BPD) is a highly heritable polygenic disorder. Recent enrichment analyses suggest that there may be true risk variants for BPD among the expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) in the brain. Aims We sought to assess the impact of eQTL variants on BPD risk by combining data from both BPD genome-wide association study (GWAS) and brain eQTL. Method To detect single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that influence expression levels of genes associated with BPD, we jointly analyzed data from a BPD GWAS (7,481 cases and 9,250 controls) and a genome-wide brain (cortical) eQTL (193 healthy controls) using a Bayesian statistical method, with independent follow-up replications. The identified risk SNP was then further tested for association with hippocampal volume (N=5,775) and cognitive performance (N=342) among healthy subjects. Results Integrative analysis revealed a significant association between a brain eQTL rs6088662 in 20q11.22 and BPD (Log Bayes Factor=5.48; BPD p-val=5.85×10−5). Follow-up studies across multiple independent samples confirmed the association of the risk SNP (rs6088662) with gene expression and BPD susceptibility (p-val=3.54×10−8). Further exploratory analysis revealed that rs6088662 is also associated with hippocampal volume and cognitive performance in healthy subjects. Conclusions Our findings suggest that 20q11.22 is likely a risk region for BPD, highlighting the informativeness of integrating functional annotation of genetic variants for gene expression in advancing our understanding of the biological basis underlying complex diseases such as BPD. PMID:26338991

Impact of a cis-associated gene expression SNP on chromosome 20q11.22 on bipolar disorder susceptibility, hippocampal structure and cognitive performance.

PubMed

Li, Ming; Luo, Xiong-jian; Landén, Mikael; Bergen, Sarah E; Hultman, Christina M; Li, Xiao; Zhang, Wen; Yao, Yong-Gang; Zhang, Chen; Liu, Jiewei; Mattheisen, Manuel; Cichon, Sven; Mühleisen, Thomas W; Degenhardt, Franziska A; Nöthen, Markus M; Schulze, Thomas G; Grigoroiu-Serbanescu, Maria; Li, Hao; Fuller, Chris K; Chen, Chunhui; Dong, Qi; Chen, Chuansheng; Jamain, Stéphane; Leboyer, Marion; Bellivier, Frank; Etain, Bruno; Kahn, Jean-Pierre; Henry, Chantal; Preisig, Martin; Kutalik, Zoltán; Castelao, Enrique; Wright, Adam; Mitchell, Philip B; Fullerton, Janice M; Schofield, Peter R; Montgomery, Grant W; Medland, Sarah E; Gordon, Scott D; Martin, Nicholas G; Rietschel, Marcella; Liu, Chunyu; Kleinman, Joel E; Hyde, Thomas M; Weinberger, Daniel R; Su, Bing

2016-02-01

Bipolar disorder is a highly heritable polygenic disorder. Recent enrichment analyses suggest that there may be true risk variants for bipolar disorder in the expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) in the brain. We sought to assess the impact of eQTL variants on bipolar disorder risk by combining data from both bipolar disorder genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and brain eQTL. To detect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that influence expression levels of genes associated with bipolar disorder, we jointly analysed data from a bipolar disorder GWAS (7481 cases and 9250 controls) and a genome-wide brain (cortical) eQTL (193 healthy controls) using a Bayesian statistical method, with independent follow-up replications. The identified risk SNP was then further tested for association with hippocampal volume (n = 5775) and cognitive performance (n = 342) among healthy individuals. Integrative analysis revealed a significant association between a brain eQTL rs6088662 on chromosome 20q11.22 and bipolar disorder (log Bayes factor = 5.48; bipolar disorder P = 5.85 × 10(-5)). Follow-up studies across multiple independent samples confirmed the association of the risk SNP (rs6088662) with gene expression and bipolar disorder susceptibility (P = 3.54 × 10(-8)). Further exploratory analysis revealed that rs6088662 is also associated with hippocampal volume and cognitive performance in healthy individuals. Our findings suggest that 20q11.22 is likely a risk region for bipolar disorder; they also highlight the informative value of integrating functional annotation of genetic variants for gene expression in advancing our understanding of the biological basis underlying complex disorders, such as bipolar disorder. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016.

Direct oral anticoagulants for extended thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients: meta-analysis and risk/benefit assessment.

PubMed

Al Yami, Majed S; Kurdi, Sawsan; Abraham, Ivo

2018-01-01

Standard-duration (7-10 days) thromboprophylaxis with low molecular weight heparin, low dose unfractionated heparin, or fondaparinux in hospitalized medically ill patients is associated with ~50% reduction in venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk. However, these patients remain at high risk for VTE post-discharge. The direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) apixaban, rivaroxaban and betrixaban have been evaluated for extended-duration (30-42 days) thromboprophylaxis in this population. We review the efficacy and safety results from the 3 pivotal trials of extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients. We performed a meta-analysis of these pivotal trials focusing on 6 VTE (efficacy) and three bleeding outcomes (safety). These results were integrated into a quantitative risk/benefit assessment. The trials evaluating extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients failed to establish clear efficacy and/or safety signals for each agent. Our meta-analysis shows that, as a class, DOACs have selective and partial extended-duration prophylactic activity in preventing VTE events. However, this is associated with a marked increase in the risk of various bleeding events. The risk/benefit analyses fail to show a consistent net clinical benefit of extended-duration DOAC prophylaxis in medically ill patients. At this time, the evidence of safe and effective extended-duration thromboprophylaxis with DOACs in this population is inconclusive.

The VeTOOLS Project: an example of how to strengthen collaboration between scientists and Civil Protections in disaster risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marti, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Becerril, Laura

2016-04-01

VeTOOLS is a project funded by the European Commission's Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department (ECHO), and aims at creating an integrated software platform specially designed to assess and manage volcanic risk. The project facilitates interaction and cooperation between scientists and Civil Protection Agencies in order to share, unify, and exchange procedures, methodologies and technologies to effectively reduce the impacts of volcanic disasters. The project aims at 1) improving and developing volcanic risk assessment and management capacities in active volcanic regions; 2) developing universal methodologies, scenario definitions, response strategies and alert protocols to cope with the full range of volcanic threats; 4) improving quantitative methods and tools for vulnerability and risk assessment; and 5) defining thresholds and protocols for civil protection. With these objectives, the VeTOOLS project points to two of the Sendai Framework resolutions for implementing it: i) Provide guidance on methodologies and standards for risk assessments, disaster risk modelling and the use of data; ii) Promote and support the availability and application of science and technology to decision-making, and offers a good example on how a close collaboration between science and civil protection is an effective way to contribute to DRR. European Commission ECHO Grant SI2.695524

Human-Associated Fecal Quantitative Polymerase Chain ReactionMeasurements and Simulated Risk of Gastrointestinal Illness in Recreational Waters Contaminated with Raw Sewage

EPA Science Inventory

We used quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to estimate the risk of gastrointestinal (GI) illness associated with swimming in recreational waters containing different concentrations of human-associated fecal qPCR markers from raw sewage– HF183 and HumM2. The volume/volu...

FDA-iRISK--a comparative risk assessment system for evaluating and ranking food-hazard pairs: case studies on microbial hazards.

PubMed

Chen, Yuhuan; Dennis, Sherri B; Hartnett, Emma; Paoli, Greg; Pouillot, Régis; Ruthman, Todd; Wilson, Margaret

2013-03-01

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

Applicability of integrated cell culture reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (ICC-RTqPCR) for the simultaneous detection of the four human enteric enterovirus species in disinfection studies

EPA Science Inventory

A newly developed integrated cell culture reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (ICC-RTqPCR) method and its applicability in UV disinfection studies is described. This method utilizes a singular cell culture system coupled with four RTqPCR assays to detect infectious serotypes t...

Deriving a no expected sensitization induction level for fragrance ingredients without animal testing: An integrated approach applied to specific case studies.

PubMed

Natsch, Andreas; Emter, Roger; Haupt, Tina; Ellis, Graham

2018-06-01

Cosmetic regulations prohibit animal testing for the purpose of safety assessment and recent REACH guidance states that the local lymph node assay (LLNA) in mice shall only be conducted if in vitro data cannot give sufficient information for classification and labelling. However, Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients requires a NESIL, a dose not expected to cause induction of skin sensitization in humans. In absence of human data, this is derived from the LLNA and it remains a key challenge for risk assessors to derive this value from non-animal data. Here we present a workflow using structural information, reactivity data and KeratinoSens results to predict a LLNA result as a point of departure. Specific additional tests (metabolic activation, complementary reactivity tests) are applied in selected cases depending on the chemical domain of a molecule. Finally, in vitro and in vivo data on close analogues are used to estimate uncertainty of the prediction in the specific chemical domain. This approach was applied to three molecules which were subsequently tested in the LLNA and 22 molecules with available and sometimes discordant human and LLNA data. Four additional case studies illustrate how this approach is being applied to recently developed molecules in the absence of animal data. Estimation of uncertainty and how this can be applied to determine a final NESIL for risk assessment is discussed. We conclude that, in the data-rich domain of fragrance ingredients, sensitization risk assessment without animal testing is possible in most cases by this integrated approach.

[Application of three risk assessment models in occupational health risk assessment of dimethylformamide].

PubMed

Wu, Z J; Xu, B; Jiang, H; Zheng, M; Zhang, M; Zhao, W J; Cheng, J

2016-08-20

Objective: To investigate the application of United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inhalation risk assessment model, Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model, and occupational hazards risk assessment index method in occupational health risk in enterprises using dimethylformamide (DMF) in a certain area in Jiangsu, China, and to put forward related risk control measures. Methods: The industries involving DMF exposure in Jiangsu province were chosen as the evaluation objects in 2013 and three risk assessment models were used in the evaluation. EPA inhalation risk assessment model: HQ=EC/RfC; Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model: Risk= (HR×ER) 1/2 ; Occupational hazards risk assessment index=2 Health effect level ×2 exposure ratio ×Operation condition level. Results: The results of hazard quotient (HQ>1) from EPA inhalation risk assessment model suggested that all the workshops (dry method, wet method and printing) and work positions (pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting) were high risk. The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model indicated that the workshop risk level of dry method, wet method and printing were 3.5 (high) , 3.5 (high) and 2.8 (general) , and position risk level of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 4 (high) , 4 (high) , 2.8 (general) , 2.8 (general) and 2.8 (general) . The results of occupational hazards risk assessment index method demonstrated that the position risk index of pasting, burdening, unreeling, rolling, assisting were 42 (high) , 33 (high) , 23 (middle) , 21 (middle) and 22 (middle) . The results of Singapore semi-quantitative risk assessment model and occupational hazards risk assessment index method were similar, while EPA inhalation risk assessment model indicated all the workshops and positions were high risk. Conclusion: The occupational hazards risk assessment index method fully considers health effects, exposure, and operating conditions and can comprehensively and accurately evaluate occupational health risk caused by DMF.

A quantitative risk-based model for reasoning over critical system properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, M. S.

2002-01-01

This position paper suggests the use of a quantitative risk-based model to help support reeasoning and decision making that spans many of the critical properties such as security, safety, survivability, fault tolerance, and real-time.

Benefit-risk analysis : a brief review and proposed quantitative approaches.

PubMed

Holden, William L

2003-01-01

Given the current status of benefit-risk analysis as a largely qualitative method, two techniques for a quantitative synthesis of a drug's benefit and risk are proposed to allow a more objective approach. The recommended methods, relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-treat (RV-NNT) and its extension, minimum clinical efficacy (MCE) analysis, rely upon efficacy or effectiveness data, adverse event data and utility data from patients, describing their preferences for an outcome given potential risks. These methods, using hypothetical data for rheumatoid arthritis drugs, demonstrate that quantitative distinctions can be made between drugs which would better inform clinicians, drug regulators and patients about a drug's benefit-risk profile. If the number of patients needed to treat is less than the relative-value adjusted number-needed-to-harm in an RV-NNT analysis, patients are willing to undergo treatment with the experimental drug to derive a certain benefit knowing that they may be at risk for any of a series of potential adverse events. Similarly, the results of an MCE analysis allow for determining the worth of a new treatment relative to an older one, given not only the potential risks of adverse events and benefits that may be gained, but also by taking into account the risk of disease without any treatment. Quantitative methods of benefit-risk analysis have a place in the evaluative armamentarium of pharmacovigilance, especially those that incorporate patients' perspectives.

Defining High-Risk Precursor Signaling to Advance Breast Cancer Risk Assessment and Prevention

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

KEYWORDS: 3. ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Aim 1: Functional analysis of progenitor and stem cells in high-risk tissues. Major Task 1Functional...and stem cells in high-risk tissues. Major Task 1: Quantitation of LP (Luminal Progenitor) and basal stem cell (MASC) populations A. Quantitation of...LP and basal stem cell (MASC) populations We have continued to add patients to the cohorts between months 12 and 24. (This reporting period

Infusion of Quantitative and Statistical Concepts into Biology Courses Does Not Improve Quantitative Literacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beck, Christopher W.

2018-01-01

Multiple national reports have pushed for the integration of quantitative concepts into the context of disciplinary science courses. The aim of this study was to evaluate the quantitative and statistical literacy of biology students and explore learning gains when those skills were taught implicitly in the context of biology. I examined gains in…

Design and implementation of a fault-tolerant and dynamic metadata database for clinical trials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Zhou, Z.; Talini, E.; Documet, J.; Liu, B.

2007-03-01

In recent imaging-based clinical trials, quantitative image analysis (QIA) and computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) methods are increasing in productivity due to higher resolution imaging capabilities. A radiology core doing clinical trials have been analyzing more treatment methods and there is a growing quantity of metadata that need to be stored and managed. These radiology centers are also collaborating with many off-site imaging field sites and need a way to communicate metadata between one another in a secure infrastructure. Our solution is to implement a data storage grid with a fault-tolerant and dynamic metadata database design to unify metadata from different clinical trial experiments and field sites. Although metadata from images follow the DICOM standard, clinical trials also produce metadata specific to regions-of-interest and quantitative image analysis. We have implemented a data access and integration (DAI) server layer where multiple field sites can access multiple metadata databases in the data grid through a single web-based grid service. The centralization of metadata database management simplifies the task of adding new databases into the grid and also decreases the risk of configuration errors seen in peer-to-peer grids. In this paper, we address the design and implementation of a data grid metadata storage that has fault-tolerance and dynamic integration for imaging-based clinical trials.

76 FR 58509 - Release of Risk and Exposure Assessment Planning Document for the Review of the National Ambient...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-21

... ISA) provides support for the development of quantitative assessments of risk and exposure for health... conclusions presented in the First Draft ISA provide support for the development of quantitative assessments...

An Integrated Qualitative and Quantitative Biochemical Model Learning Framework Using Evolutionary Strategy and Simulated Annealing.

PubMed

Wu, Zujian; Pang, Wei; Coghill, George M

2015-01-01

Both qualitative and quantitative model learning frameworks for biochemical systems have been studied in computational systems biology. In this research, after introducing two forms of pre-defined component patterns to represent biochemical models, we propose an integrative qualitative and quantitative modelling framework for inferring biochemical systems. In the proposed framework, interactions between reactants in the candidate models for a target biochemical system are evolved and eventually identified by the application of a qualitative model learning approach with an evolution strategy. Kinetic rates of the models generated from qualitative model learning are then further optimised by employing a quantitative approach with simulated annealing. Experimental results indicate that our proposed integrative framework is feasible to learn the relationships between biochemical reactants qualitatively and to make the model replicate the behaviours of the target system by optimising the kinetic rates quantitatively. Moreover, potential reactants of a target biochemical system can be discovered by hypothesising complex reactants in the synthetic models. Based on the biochemical models learned from the proposed framework, biologists can further perform experimental study in wet laboratory. In this way, natural biochemical systems can be better understood.

Informed consent in human research: what to say and how to say it.

PubMed

Reiman, Robert E

2013-02-01

To ensure that the possibility of harm to human research subjects is minimized, clinical trials and other research protocols are subject to oversight by Institutional Review Boards (IRBs). IRBs require that subjects be fully informed about the real or potential risks of participation in a research study. The use of radiological examinations in research protocols subjects the participants to exposure to ionizing radiation, which in theory carries a risk of stochastic effects such as radiation-induced cancer, and in practice may lead to deterministic effects such as skin injury. Because IRB members and clinical study coordinators may have little knowledge of radiation effects or how best to communicate the risk to the research subjects, they will consult with institutional Radiation Safety Committees and radiation protection professionals regarding how to integrate radiation risk information into the informed consent process. Elements of radiation informed consent include: (1) comparison of the radiation dose to some benchmark that enables the study subjects to make a value judgment regarding the acceptability of the risk; (2) a quantitative expression of the absolute risk of stochastic effects; (3) an expression of uncertainty in the risk; and (4) understandability. Standardized risk statement templates may be created for specific radiological examinations. These standardized risk statements may be deployed as paper forms or electronically in the form of internet-based applications. The technical nature of creating useful radiation risk statements represents an opportunity for radiation protection professionals to participate productively in the clinical research process.

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment II. Use of point-of-departure (PoD) metrics in defining acceptable exposure limits and assessing human risk

EPA Science Inventory

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the ne...

Design features of graphs in health risk communication: a systematic review.

PubMed

Ancker, Jessica S; Senathirajah, Yalini; Kukafka, Rita; Starren, Justin B

2006-01-01

This review describes recent experimental and focus group research on graphics as a method of communication about quantitative health risks. Some of the studies discussed in this review assessed effect of graphs on quantitative reasoning, others assessed effects on behavior or behavioral intentions, and still others assessed viewers' likes and dislikes. Graphical features that improve the accuracy of quantitative reasoning appear to differ from the features most likely to alter behavior or intentions. For example, graphs that make part-to-whole relationships available visually may help people attend to the relationship between the numerator (the number of people affected by a hazard) and the denominator (the entire population at risk), whereas graphs that show only the numerator appear to inflate the perceived risk and may induce risk-averse behavior. Viewers often preferred design features such as visual simplicity and familiarity that were not associated with accurate quantitative judgments. Communicators should not assume that all graphics are more intuitive than text; many of the studies found that patients' interpretations of the graphics were dependent upon expertise or instruction. Potentially useful directions for continuing research include interactions with educational level and numeracy and successful ways to communicate uncertainty about risk.

How to use mechanistic effect models in environmental risk assessment of pesticides: Case studies and recommendations from the SETAC workshop MODELINK.

PubMed

Hommen, Udo; Forbes, Valery; Grimm, Volker; Preuss, Thomas G; Thorbek, Pernille; Ducrot, Virginie

2016-01-01

Mechanistic effect models (MEMs) are useful tools for ecological risk assessment of chemicals to complement experimentation. However, currently no recommendations exist for how to use them in risk assessments. Therefore, the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) MODELINK workshop aimed at providing guidance for when and how to apply MEMs in regulatory risk assessments. The workshop focused on risk assessment of plant protection products under Regulation (EC) No 1107/2009 using MEMs at the organism and population levels. Realistic applications of MEMs were demonstrated in 6 case studies covering assessments for plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates in aquatic and terrestrial habitats. From the case studies and their evaluation, 12 recommendations on the future use of MEMs were formulated, addressing the issues of how to translate specific protection goals into workable questions, how to select species and scenarios to be modeled, and where and how to fit MEMs into current and future risk assessment schemes. The most important recommendations are that protection goals should be made more quantitative; the species to be modeled must be vulnerable not only regarding toxic effects but also regarding their life history and dispersal traits; the models should be as realistic as possible for a specific risk assessment question, and the level of conservatism required for a specific risk assessment should be reached by designing appropriately conservative environmental and exposure scenarios; scenarios should include different regions of the European Union (EU) and different crops; in the long run, generic MEMs covering relevant species based on representative scenarios should be developed, which will require EU-level joint initiatives of all stakeholders involved. The main conclusion from the MODELINK workshop is that the considerable effort required for making MEMs an integral part of environmental risk assessment of pesticides is worthwhile, because it will make risk assessments not only more ecologically relevant and less uncertain but also more comprehensive, coherent, and cost effective. © 2015 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

Teaching Integrative Physiology Using the Quantitative Circulatory Physiology Model and Case Discussion Method: Evaluation of the Learning Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez-Barbero, A.; Lopez-Novoa, J. M.

2008-01-01

One of the problems that we have found when teaching human physiology in a Spanish medical school is that the degree of understanding by the students of the integration between organs and systems is rather poor. We attempted to remedy this problem by using a case discussion method together with the Quantitative Circulatory Physiology (QCP)…

ImatraNMR: novel software for batch integration and analysis of quantitative NMR spectra.

PubMed

Mäkelä, A V; Heikkilä, O; Kilpeläinen, I; Heikkinen, S

2011-08-01

Quantitative NMR spectroscopy is a useful and important tool for analysis of various mixtures. Recently, in addition of traditional quantitative 1D (1)H and (13)C NMR methods, a variety of pulse sequences aimed for quantitative or semiquantitative analysis have been developed. To obtain actual usable results from quantitative spectra, they must be processed and analyzed with suitable software. Currently, there are many processing packages available from spectrometer manufacturers and third party developers, and most of them are capable of analyzing and integration of quantitative spectra. However, they are mainly aimed for processing single or few spectra, and are slow and difficult to use when large numbers of spectra and signals are being analyzed, even when using pre-saved integration areas or custom scripting features. In this article, we present a novel software, ImatraNMR, designed for batch analysis of quantitative spectra. In addition to capability of analyzing large number of spectra, it provides results in text and CSV formats, allowing further data-analysis using spreadsheet programs or general analysis programs, such as Matlab. The software is written with Java, and thus it should run in any platform capable of providing Java Runtime Environment version 1.6 or newer, however, currently it has only been tested with Windows and Linux (Ubuntu 10.04). The software is free for non-commercial use, and is provided with source code upon request. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The NASA Space Radiobiology Risk Assessment Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Huff, Janice; Ponomarev, Artem; Patel, Zarana; Kim, Myung-Hee

The current first phase (2006-2011) has the three major goals of: 1) optimizing the conventional cancer risk models currently used based on the double-detriment life-table and radiation quality functions; 2) the integration of biophysical models of acute radiation syndromes; and 3) the development of new systems radiation biology models of cancer processes. The first-phase also includes continued uncertainty assessment of space radiation environmental models and transport codes, and relative biological effectiveness factors (RBE) based on flight data and NSRL results, respectively. The second phase of the (2012-2016) will: 1) develop biophysical models of central nervous system risks (CNS); 2) achieve comphrensive systems biology models of cancer processes using data from proton and heavy ion studies performed at NSRL; and 3) begin to identify computational models of biological countermeasures. Goals for the third phase (2017-2021) include: 1) the development of a systems biology model of cancer risks for operational use at NASA; 2) development of models of degenerative risks, 2) quantitative models of counter-measure impacts on cancer risks; and 3) indiviudal based risk assessments. Finally, we will support a decision point to continue NSRL research in support of NASA's exploration goals beyond 2021, and create an archival of NSRL research results for continued analysis. Details on near term goals, plans for a WEB based data resource of NSRL results, and a space radiation Wikepedia are described.

Factors associated with perception of risk of contracting HIV among secondary school female learners in Mbonge subdivision of rural Cameroon

PubMed Central

Tarkang, Elvis Enowbeyang

2014-01-01

Introduction Since learners in secondary schools fall within the age group hardest hit by HIV/AIDS, it is obvious that these learners might be at high risk of contracting HIV/AIDS. However, little has been explored on the perception of risk of contracting HIV among secondary school learners in Cameroon. This study aimed at examining the perception of risk of contracting HIV among secondary school learners in Mbonge subdivision of rural Cameroon using the Health Belief Model (HBM) as framework. Methods A quantitative, correlational design was adopted, using a self-administered questionnaire to collect data from 210 female learners selected through disproportional, stratified, simple random sampling technique, from three participating senior secondary schools. Statistics were calculated using SPSS version 20 software program. Results Only 39.4% of the respondents perceived themselves to be at high risk of contracting HIV, though the majority, 54.0% were sexually active. Multinomial logistic regression analyses show that sexual risk behaviours (p=0.000) and the Integrated Value Mapping (IVM) of the perception components of the HBM are the most significant factors associated with perception of risk of contracting HIV at the level p<0.05. Conclusion The findings of this study can play an instrumental role in the development of effective preventive and interventional messages for adolescents in Cameroon. PMID:25309659

Organophosphorus Insecticide Pharmacokinetics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Timchalk, Charles

2010-01-01

This chapter highlights a number of current and future applications of pharmacokinetics to assess organophosphate (OP) insecticide dosimetry, biological response and risk in humans exposed to these agents. Organophosphates represent a large family of pesticides where insecticidal as well as toxicological mode of action is associated with their ability to target and inhibit acetylcholinesterase (AChE). Pharmacokinetics entails the quantitative integration of physiological and metabolic processes associated with the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) of drugs and xenobiotics. Pharmacokinetic studies provide important data on the amount of toxicant delivered to a target site as well as species-, age-, gender-specific andmore » dose-dependent differences in biological response. These studies have been conducted with organophosphorus insecticides in multiple species, at various dose levels, and across different routes of exposure to understand their in vivo pharmacokinetics and how they contribute to the observed toxicological response. To access human exposure to organophosphorus insecticides, human pharmacokinetic studies have been conducted and used to develop biological monitoring strategies based on the quantitation of key metabolites in biological fluids. Pharmacokinetic studies with these insecticides are also useful to facilitate extrapolation of dosimetry and biological response from animals to humans and for the assessment of human health risk. In this regard, physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) models are being utilized to assess risk and understand the toxicological implications of known or suspected exposures to various insecticides. In this chapter a number of examples are presented that illustrate the utility and limitation of pharmacokinetic studies to address human health concerns associated with organophosphorus insecticides.« less

Food and Feed Safety Assessment: The Importance of Proper Sampling.

PubMed

Kuiper, Harry A; Paoletti, Claudia

2015-03-24

The general principles for safety and nutritional evaluation of foods and feed and the potential health risks associated with hazardous compounds are described as developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) and further elaborated in the European Union-funded project Safe Foods. We underline the crucial role of sampling in foods/feed safety assessment. High quality sampling should always be applied to ensure the use of adequate and representative samples as test materials for hazard identification, toxicological and nutritional characterization of identified hazards, as well as for estimating quantitative and reliable exposure levels of foods/feed or related compounds of concern for humans and animals. The importance of representative sampling is emphasized through examples of risk analyses in different areas of foods/feed production. The Theory of Sampling (TOS) is recognized as the only framework within which to ensure accuracy and precision of all sampling steps involved in the field-to-fork continuum, which is crucial to monitor foods and feed safety. Therefore, TOS must be integrated in the well-established FAO/WHO risk assessment approach in order to guarantee a transparent and correct frame for the risk assessment and decision making process.

Food and feed safety assessment: the importance of proper sampling.

PubMed

Kuiper, Harry A; Paoletti, Claudia

2015-01-01

The general principles for safety and nutritional evaluation of foods and feed and the potential health risks associated with hazardous compounds are described as developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) and further elaborated in the European Union-funded project Safe Foods. We underline the crucial role of sampling in foods/feed safety assessment. High quality sampling should always be applied to ensure the use of adequate and representative samples as test materials for hazard identification, toxicological and nutritional characterization of identified hazards, as well as for estimating quantitative and reliable exposure levels of foods/feed or related compounds of concern for humans and animals. The importance of representative sampling is emphasized through examples of risk analyses in different areas of foods/feed production. The Theory of Sampling (TOS) is recognized as the only framework within which to ensure accuracy and precision of all sampling steps involved in the field-to-fork continuum, which is crucial to monitor foods and feed safety. Therefore, TOS must be integrated in the well-established FAO/WHO risk assessment approach in order to guarantee a transparent and correct frame for the risk assessment and decision making process.

Making predictions of mangrove deforestation: a comparison of two methods in Kenya.

PubMed

Rideout, Alasdair J R; Joshi, Neha P; Viergever, Karin M; Huxham, Mark; Briers, Robert A

2013-11-01

Deforestation of mangroves is of global concern given their importance for carbon storage, biogeochemical cycling and the provision of other ecosystem services, but the links between rates of loss and potential drivers or risk factors are rarely evaluated. Here, we identified key drivers of mangrove loss in Kenya and compared two different approaches to predicting risk. Risk factors tested included various possible predictors of anthropogenic deforestation, related to population, suitability for land use change and accessibility. Two approaches were taken to modelling risk; a quantitative statistical approach and a qualitative categorical ranking approach. A quantitative model linking rates of loss to risk factors was constructed based on generalized least squares regression and using mangrove loss data from 1992 to 2000. Population density, soil type and proximity to roads were the most important predictors. In order to validate this model it was used to generate a map of losses of Kenyan mangroves predicted to have occurred between 2000 and 2010. The qualitative categorical model was constructed using data from the same selection of variables, with the coincidence of different risk factors in particular mangrove areas used in an additive manner to create a relative risk index which was then mapped. Quantitative predictions of loss were significantly correlated with the actual loss of mangroves between 2000 and 2010 and the categorical risk index values were also highly correlated with the quantitative predictions. Hence, in this case the relatively simple categorical modelling approach was of similar predictive value to the more complex quantitative model of mangrove deforestation. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed, and the implications for mangroves are outlined. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Mammographic features and subsequent risk of breast cancer: a comparison of qualitative and quantitative evaluations in the Guernsey prospective studies.

PubMed

Torres-Mejía, Gabriela; De Stavola, Bianca; Allen, Diane S; Pérez-Gavilán, Juan J; Ferreira, Jorge M; Fentiman, Ian S; Dos Santos Silva, Isabel

2005-05-01

Mammographic features are known to be associated with breast cancer but the magnitude of the effect differs markedly from study to study. Methods to assess mammographic features range from subjective qualitative classifications to computer-automated quantitative measures. We used data from the UK Guernsey prospective studies to examine the relative value of these methods in predicting breast cancer risk. In all, 3,211 women ages > or =35 years who had a mammogram taken in 1986 to 1989 were followed-up to the end of October 2003, with 111 developing breast cancer during this period. Mammograms were classified using the subjective qualitative Wolfe classification and several quantitative mammographic features measured using computer-based techniques. Breast cancer risk was positively associated with high-grade Wolfe classification, percent breast density and area of dense tissue, and negatively associated with area of lucent tissue, fractal dimension, and lacunarity. Inclusion of the quantitative measures in the same model identified area of dense tissue and lacunarity as the best predictors of breast cancer, with risk increasing by 59% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 29-94%] per SD increase in total area of dense tissue but declining by 39% (95% CI, 53-22%) per SD increase in lacunarity, after adjusting for each other and for other confounders. Comparison of models that included both the qualitative Wolfe classification and these two quantitative measures to models that included either the qualitative or the two quantitative variables showed that they all made significant contributions to prediction of breast cancer risk. These findings indicate that breast cancer risk is affected not only by the amount of mammographic density but also by the degree of heterogeneity of the parenchymal pattern and, presumably, by other features captured by the Wolfe classification.

A scoping review of the associations between mental health and factors related to HIV acquisition and disease progression in conflict-affected populations.

PubMed

Koegler, Erica; Kennedy, Caitlin E

2018-01-01

The association between poor mental health and factors related to HIV acquisition and disease progression (also referred to as HIV-related factors) may be stronger among conflict-affected populations given elevated rates of mental health disorders. We conducted a scoping review of the literature to identify evidence-based associations between mental health (depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder [PTSD]) and factors related to HIV acquisition and progression in conflict-affected populations. Five electronic databases were searched on October 10, 2014 and updated on March 7, 2017 to identify peer-reviewed publications presenting primary data from January 1, 1994 to March 7, 2017. Articles were included if: 1) depression, anxiety, and/or PTSD was assessed using a validated scale, 2) HIV or HIV-related factors were a primary focus, 3) quantitative associations between depression/anxiety/PTSD and HIV or HIV-related factors were assessed, and 4) the study population was conflict-affected and from a conflict-affected setting. Of 714 citations identified, 33 articles covering 110,818 participants were included. Most were from sub-Saharan Africa ( n  = 25), five were from the USA, and one each was from the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America. There were 23 cross-sectional, 3 time-series, and 7 cohort studies. The search identified that mental health has been quantitatively associated with the following categories of HIV-related factors in conflict-affected populations: markers of HIV risk, HIV-related health status, sexual risk behaviors, and HIV risk exposures (i.e. sexual violence). Further, findings suggest that symptoms of poor mental health are associated with sexual risk behaviors and HIV markers, while HIV risk exposures and health status are associated with symptoms of poor mental health. Results suggest a role for greater integration and referrals across HIV and mental health programs for conflict-affected populations.

Assessing healthcare professionals' experiences of integrated care: do surveys tell the full story?

PubMed

Stephenson, Matthew D; Campbell, Jared M; Lisy, Karolina; Aromataris, Edoardo C

2017-09-01

Integrated care is the combination of different healthcare services with the goal to provide comprehensive, seamless, effective and efficient patient care. Assessing the experiences of healthcare professionals (HCPs) is an important aspect when evaluating integrated care strategies. The aim of this rapid review was to investigate if quantitative surveys used to assess HCPs' experiences with integrated care capture all the aspects highlighted as being important in qualitative research, with a view to informing future survey development. The review considered all types of health professionals in primary care, and hospital and specialist services, with a specific focus on the provision of integrated care aimed at improving the patient journey. PubMed, CINAHL and grey literature sources were searched for relevant surveys/program evaluations and qualitative research studies. Full text articles deemed to be of relevance to the review were appraised for methodological quality using abridged critical appraisal instruments from the Joanna Briggs Institute. Data were extracted from included studies using standardized data extraction templates. Findings from included studies were grouped into domains based on similarity of meaning. Similarities and differences in the domains covered in quantitative surveys and those identified as being important in qualitative research were explored. A total of 37 studies (19 quantitative surveys, 14 qualitative studies and four mixed-method studies) were included in the review. A range of healthcare professions participated in the included studies, the majority being primary care providers. Common domains identified from quantitative surveys and qualitative studies included Communication, Agreement on Clear Roles and Responsibilities, Facilities, Information Systems, and Coordination of Care and Access. Qualitative research highlighted domains identified by HCPs as being relevant to their experiences with integrated care that have not routinely being surveyed, including Workload, Clear Leadership/Decision-Making, Management, Flexibility of Integrated Care Model, Engagement, Usefulness of Integrated Care and Collaboration, and Positive Impact/Clinical Benefits/Practice Level Benefits. There were several domains identified from qualitative research that are not routinely included in quantitative surveys to assess health professionals' experiences of integrated care. In addition, the qualitative findings suggest that the experiences of HCPs are often impacted by deeper aspects than those measured by existing surveys. Incorporation of targeted items within these domains in the design of surveys should enhance the capture of data that are relevant to the experiences of HCPs with integrated care, which may assist in more comprehensive evaluation and subsequent improvement of integrated care programs.

Combining qualitative and quantitative operational research methods to inform quality improvement in pathways that span multiple settings

PubMed Central

Crowe, Sonya; Brown, Katherine; Tregay, Jenifer; Wray, Jo; Knowles, Rachel; Ridout, Deborah A; Bull, Catherine; Utley, Martin

2017-01-01

Background Improving integration and continuity of care across sectors within resource constraints is a priority in many health systems. Qualitative operational research methods of problem structuring have been used to address quality improvement in services involving multiple sectors but not in combination with quantitative operational research methods that enable targeting of interventions according to patient risk. We aimed to combine these methods to augment and inform an improvement initiative concerning infants with congenital heart disease (CHD) whose complex care pathway spans multiple sectors. Methods Soft systems methodology was used to consider systematically changes to services from the perspectives of community, primary, secondary and tertiary care professionals and a patient group, incorporating relevant evidence. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis of national audit datasets was conducted along with data visualisation designed to inform service improvement within the context of limited resources. Results A ‘Rich Picture’ was developed capturing the main features of services for infants with CHD pertinent to service improvement. This was used, along with a graphical summary of the CART analysis, to guide discussions about targeting interventions at specific patient risk groups. Agreement was reached across representatives of relevant health professions and patients on a coherent set of targeted recommendations for quality improvement. These fed into national decisions about service provision and commissioning. Conclusions When tackling complex problems in service provision across multiple settings, it is important to acknowledge and work with multiple perspectives systematically and to consider targeting service improvements in response to confined resources. Our research demonstrates that applying a combination of qualitative and quantitative operational research methods is one approach to doing so that warrants further consideration. PMID:28062603

Mapping Exposure to Multi-Pollutants Using Environmental Biomonitors-A Multi-Exposure Index.

PubMed

Serrano, Helena C; Köbel, Melanie; Palma-Oliveira, José; Pinho, Pedro; Branquinho, Cristina

2017-01-01

Atmosphere is a major pathway for transport and deposition of pollutants in the environment. In industrial areas, organic compounds are released or formed as by-products, such as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F's). Inorganic chemical elements, including lead and arsenic, are also part of the pollutants mixture, and even in low concentrations may potentially be toxic and carcinogenic. However, assessing the spatial pattern of their deposition is difficult due to high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Lichens have been used as biomonitors of atmospheric deposition, because these organisms encompass greater spatial detail than air monitoring stations and provide an integration of overall pollution. Based upon the ability of lichens to concentrate pollutants such as PCDD/F and chemical elements, the main objectives of this study were to develop a new semi-quantitative multi-pollutant toxicity exposure index (TEQ-like), derived from risk estimates, in an attempt to correlate several atmospheric pollutants to human exposure levels. The actual pollutant concentrations were measured in the environment, from biomonitors (organisms that integrate multi-pollutants), enabling interpolation and mapping of contaminant deposition within the region. Thus, the TEQ-like index provides a spatial representation not from absolute accumulation of the different pollutants, but from the accumulation weighted by their relative risk. The assessment of environmental human exposure to multi-pollutants through atmospheric deposition may be applied to industries to improve mitigation processes or to health stakeholders to target populations for a comprehensive risk assessment, epidemiological studies, and health recommendations.

Patient Preferences in Regulatory Benefit-Risk Assessments: A US Perspective.

PubMed

Johnson, F Reed; Zhou, Mo

Demands for greater transparency in US regulatory assessments of benefits and risks, together with growing interest in engaging patients in Food and Drug Administration regulatory decision making, have resulted in several recent regulatory developments. Although Food and Drug Administration's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) and Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH) have established patient-engagement initiatives, CDRH has proposed guidelines for considering quantitative data on patients' benefit-risk perspectives, while CDER has focused on a more qualitative approach. We summarize two significant studies that were developed in collaboration and consultation with CDER and CDRH. CDER encouraged a patient advocacy group to propose draft guidance on engaging patient and caregiver stakeholders in regulatory decision making for Duchenne muscular dystrophy. CDRH sponsored a discrete-choice experiment case study to quantify obese respondents' perspectives on "meaningful benefits." CDRH and CDER issued draft guidance in May and June 2015, respectively, on including patient-preference data in regulatory submissions. Both organizations face challenges. CDER is working on integrating qualitative data into existing evidence-based review processes and is exploring options for therapeutic areas not included on a priority list. CDRH has adopted an approach that requires patient-preference data to satisfy standards of valid scientific evidence. Although that strategy could facilitate integrating patient perspectives directly with clinical data on benefits and harms, generating such data requires building capacity. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Health risk evaluation associated to Planktothrix rubescens: An integrated approach to design tailored monitoring programs for human exposure to cyanotoxins.

PubMed

Manganelli, Maura; Scardala, Simona; Stefanelli, Mara; Vichi, Susanna; Mattei, Daniela; Bogialli, Sara; Ceccarelli, Piegiorgio; Corradetti, Ernesto; Petrucci, Ines; Gemma, Simonetta; Testai, Emanuela; Funari, Enzo

2010-03-01

Increasing concern for human health related to cyanotoxin exposure imposes the identification of pattern and level of exposure; however, current monitoring programs, based on cyanobacteria cell counts, could be inadequate. An integrated approach has been applied to a small lake in Italy, affected by Planktothrix rubescens blooms, to provide a scientific basis for appropriate monitoring program design. The cyanobacterium dynamic, the lake physicochemical and trophic status, expressed as nutrients concentration and recycling rates due to bacterial activity, the identification/quantification of toxic genotype and cyanotoxin concentration have been studied. Our results indicate that low levels of nutrients are not a marker for low risk of P. rubescens proliferation and confirm that cyanobacterial density solely is not a reliable parameter to assess human exposure. The ratio between toxic/non-toxic cells, and toxin concentrations, which can be better explained by toxic population dynamic, are much more diagnostic, although varying with time and environmental conditions. The toxic fraction within P. rubescens population is generally high (30-100%) and increases with water depth. The ratio toxic/non-toxic cells is lowest during the bloom, suggesting a competitive advantage for non-toxic cells. Therefore, when P. rubescens is the dominant species, it is important to analyze samples below the thermocline, and quantitatively estimate toxic genotype abundance. In addition, the identification of cyanotoxin content and congeners profile, with different toxic potential, are crucial for risk assessment. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An information diffusion technique to assess integrated hazard risks.

PubMed

Huang, Chongfu; Huang, Yundong

2018-02-01

An integrated risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident caused by multiple hazards. An integrated probability risk is the expected value of disaster. Due to the difficulty of assessing an integrated probability risk with a small sample, weighting methods and copulas are employed to avoid this obstacle. To resolve the problem, in this paper, we develop the information diffusion technique to construct a joint probability distribution and a vulnerability surface. Then, an integrated risk can be directly assessed by using a small sample. A case of an integrated risk caused by flood and earthquake is given to show how the suggested technique is used to assess the integrated risk of annual property loss. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Transparency in Europe: A Quantitative Study.

PubMed

Bouder, Frederic; Way, Dominic; Löfstedt, Ragnar; Evensen, Darrick

2015-07-01

In recent years, European pharmaceutical regulators have increasingly committed to heightening access to raw safety-related data as part of a wave of transparency initiatives (e.g., providing public Internet-mediated access to clinical trials data). Yet, the regulators--who are under significant pressure--have not yet benefited from a systematic review of this new policy. In seeking to inject much needed evidence, this article explores the effects of new transparency policies designed to promote meaningful communication of risks and benefits to patients. Results of a cross-national European survey with respondents from Great Britain, the Netherlands, Spain, France, Germany, and Sweden (N = 5,648) shed light on how patients and the public are likely to react to the regulators' new transparency policies. The findings demonstrate clear national variations in how European citizens are likely to react and emphasize the need to develop evidence-based, reasoned transparency policies that integrate benefit-risk communication. The authors conclude by providing six specific recommendations, informed by the study, that seek to improve the European transparency model both within the medical field and across health, safety, and environmental policy domains. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A risk assessment of water salinization during the initial impounding period of a proposed reservoir in Tianjin, China.

PubMed

Zhu, Liqin; Jiang, Cuiling; Wang, Youheng; Peng, Yanmei; Zhang, Peng

2013-09-01

Water salinization of coastal reservoirs seriously threatens the safety of their water supply. To elucidate the mechanism of salinization and to quantitatively analyze the risk in the initial period of the impoundment of a proposed reservoir in Tianjin Binhai New Area, laboratory and field simulation experiments were implemented and integrated with the actual operation of Beitang Reservoir, which is located in the same region and has been operational for many years. The results suggested that water salinization of the proposed reservoir was mainly governed by soil saline release, evaporation and leakage. Saline release was the prevailing factor in the earlier stage of the impoundment, then the evaporation and leakage effects gradually became notable over time. By referring to the actual case of Beitang Reservoir, it was predicted that the chloride ion (Cl(-)) concentration of the water during the initial impounding period of the proposed reservoir would exceed the standard for quality of drinking water from surface water sources (250 mg L(-1)), and that the proposed reservoir had a high risk of water salinization.

Evaluating a multi-criteria model for hazard assessment in urban design. The Porto Marghera case study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luria, Paolo; Aspinall, Peter A

2003-08-01

The aim of this paper is to describe a new approach to major industrial hazard assessment, which has been recently studied by the authors in conjunction with the Italian Environmental Protection Agency ('ARPAV'). The real opportunity for developing a different approach arose from the need of the Italian EPA to provide the Venice Port Authority with an appropriate estimation of major industrial hazards in Porto Marghera, an industrial estate near Venice (Italy). However, the standard model, the quantitative risk analysis (QRA), only provided a list of individual quantitative risk values, related to single locations. The experimental model is based onmore » a multi-criteria approach--the Analytic Hierarchy Process--which introduces the use of expert opinions, complementary skills and expertise from different disciplines in conjunction with quantitative traditional analysis. This permitted the generation of quantitative data on risk assessment from a series of qualitative assessments, on the present situation and on three other future scenarios, and use of this information as indirect quantitative measures, which could be aggregated for obtaining the global risk rate. This approach is in line with the main concepts proposed by the last European directive on Major Hazard Accidents, which recommends increasing the participation of operators, taking the other players into account and, moreover, paying more attention to the concepts of 'urban control', 'subjective risk' (risk perception) and intangible factors (factors not directly quantifiable)« less

76 FR 50904 - Thiamethoxam; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-17

... exposure and risk. A separate assessment was done for clothianidin. i. Acute exposure. Quantitative acute... not expected to pose a cancer risk, a quantitative dietary exposure assessment for the purposes of...-dietary sources of post application exposure to obtain an estimate of potential combined exposure. These...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial: Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA

EPA Science Inventory

This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling:• SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Microbial Source Module as part...

Regional crop yield forecasting: a probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wit, A.; van Diepen, K.; Boogaard, H.

2009-04-01

Information on the outlook on yield and production of crops over large regions is essential for government services dealing with import and export of food crops, for agencies with a role in food relief, for international organizations with a mandate in monitoring the world food production and trade, and for commodity traders. Process-based mechanistic crop models are an important tool for providing such information, because they can integrate the effect of crop management, weather and soil on crop growth. When properly integrated in a yield forecasting system, the aggregated model output can be used to predict crop yield and production at regional, national and continental scales. Nevertheless, given the scales at which these models operate, the results are subject to large uncertainties due to poorly known weather conditions and crop management. Current yield forecasting systems are generally deterministic in nature and provide no information about the uncertainty bounds on their output. To improve on this situation we present an ensemble-based approach where uncertainty bounds can be derived from the dispersion of results in the ensemble. The probabilistic information provided by this ensemble-based system can be used to quantify uncertainties (risk) on regional crop yield forecasts and can therefore be an important support to quantitative risk analysis in a decision making process.

Internal exposure dynamics drive the Adverse Outcome Pathways of synthetic glucocorticoids in fish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margiotta-Casaluci, Luigi; Owen, Stewart F.; Huerta, Belinda; Rodríguez-Mozaz, Sara; Kugathas, Subramanian; Barceló, Damià; Rand-Weaver, Mariann; Sumpter, John P.

2016-02-01

The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework represents a valuable conceptual tool to systematically integrate existing toxicological knowledge from a mechanistic perspective to facilitate predictions of chemical-induced effects across species. However, its application for decision-making requires the transition from qualitative to quantitative AOP (qAOP). Here we used a fish model and the synthetic glucocorticoid beclomethasone dipropionate (BDP) to investigate the role of chemical-specific properties, pharmacokinetics, and internal exposure dynamics in the development of qAOPs. We generated a qAOP network based on drug plasma concentrations and focused on immunodepression, skin androgenisation, disruption of gluconeogenesis and reproductive performance. We showed that internal exposure dynamics and chemical-specific properties influence the development of qAOPs and their predictive power. Comparing the effects of two different glucocorticoids, we highlight how relatively similar in vitro hazard-based indicators can lead to different in vivo risk. This discrepancy can be predicted by their different uptake potential, pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) profiles. We recommend that the development phase of qAOPs should include the application of species-species uptake and physiologically-based PK/PD models. This integration will significantly enhance the predictive power, enabling a more accurate assessment of the risk and the reliable transferability of qAOPs across chemicals.

The need for transparency and reproducibility in documenting values for regulatory decision making and evaluating causality: The example of formaldehyde.

PubMed

Van Landingham, Cynthia; Mundt, Kenneth A; Allen, Bruce C; Gentry, P Robinan

2016-11-01

Reproducibility and transparency in scientific reporting is paramount to advancing science and providing the foundation required for sound regulation. Recent examples demonstrate that pivotal scientific findings cannot be replicated, due to poor documentation or methodological bias, sparking debate across scientific and regulatory communities. However, there is general agreement that improvements in communicating and documenting research and risk assessment methods are needed. In the case of formaldehyde, the peer-review conducted by a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Committee questioned the approaches used by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) in developing draft unit risk values. Using the original data from the key study (Beane Freeman et al., 2009) and documentation provided in the draft IRIS profile, we attempted to duplicate the reported inhalation unit risk values and address the NAS Committee's questions regarding application of the appropriate dose-response model. Overall, documentation of the methods lacked sufficient detail to allow for replication of the unit risk estimates, specifically for Hodgkin lymphoma and leukemias, the key systemic endpoints selected by IRIS. The lack of apparent exposure-response relationships for selected endpoints raises the question whether quantitative analyses are appropriate for these endpoints, and if so, how results are to be interpreted. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

5-Point programme for sustainable plant protection.

PubMed

Frische, Tobias; Egerer, Sina; Matezki, Steffen; Pickl, Christina; Wogram, Jörn

2018-01-01

This position paper intends to stimulate a profound rethinking of contemporary agricultural practice. We criticise the current intensity of chemical plant protection in Germany as ecologically unsustainable and thus threatening the achievement of key targets of environmental protection and nature conservation policies. In the first part of the paper, we provide background information on the use of plant protection products (PPP) in German agriculture, the role of agricultural policy, European pesticide legislation, the principles of and framework for environmental risk assessment and risk management of PPP, as well as environmental effects of PPP. The second part is presented against the backdrop of the European "Sustainable Use Directive" (2009/128/EC). This directive requires that "Member States shall adopt National Action Plans to set up their quantitative objectives, targets, measures, and timetables to reduce risks and impacts of pesticide use on human health and the environment and to encourage the development and introduction of integrated pest management and of alternative approaches or techniques to reduce dependency on the use of pesticides." Reflecting on the corresponding debate in Germany, we suggest the following five key principles for a sustainable use of PPP and provide recommendations for their implementation: (1) minimising use; (2) identifying, quantifying, and communicating risks; (3) optimising risk management; (4) compensating for unavoidable effects; (5) internalising external costs.

An APOE-independent cis-eSNP on chromosome 19q13.32 influences tau levels and late-onset Alzheimer's disease risk.

PubMed

Rao, Shuquan; Ghani, Mahdi; Guo, Zhiyun; Deming, Yuetiva; Wang, Kesheng; Sims, Rebecca; Mao, Canquan; Yao, Yao; Cruchaga, Carlos; Stephan, Dietrich A; Rogaeva, Ekaterina

2018-06-01

Although multiple susceptibility loci for late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) have been identified, a large portion of the genetic risk for this disease remains unexplained. LOAD risk may be associated with single-nucleotide polymorphisms responsible for changes in gene expression (eSNPs). To detect eSNPs associated with LOAD, we integrated data from LOAD genome-wide association studies and expression quantitative trait loci using Sherlock (a Bayesian statistical method). We identified a cis-regulatory eSNP (rs2927438) located on chromosome 19q13.32, for which subsequent analyses confirmed the association with both LOAD risk and the expression level of several nearby genes. Importantly, rs2927438 may represent an APOE-independent LOAD eSNP according to the weak linkage disequilibrium of rs2927438 with the 2 polymorphisms (rs7412 and rs429358) defining the APOE-ε2, -ε3, and -ε4 alleles. Furthermore, rs2927438 does not influence chromatin interaction events at the APOE locus or cis-regulation of APOE expression. Further exploratory analysis revealed that rs2927438 is significantly associated with tau levels in the cerebrospinal fluid. Our findings suggest that rs2927438 may confer APOE-independent risk for LOAD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Qalibra: a general model for food risk-benefit assessment that quantifies variability and uncertainty.

PubMed

Hart, Andy; Hoekstra, Jeljer; Owen, Helen; Kennedy, Marc; Zeilmaker, Marco J; de Jong, Nynke; Gunnlaugsdottir, Helga

2013-04-01

The EU project BRAFO proposed a framework for risk-benefit assessment of foods, or changes in diet, that present both potential risks and potential benefits to consumers (Hoekstra et al., 2012a). In higher tiers of the BRAFO framework, risks and benefits are integrated quantitatively to estimate net health impact measured in DALYs or QALYs (disability- or quality-adjusted life years). This paper describes a general model that was developed by a second EU project, Qalibra, to assist users in conducting these assessments. Its flexible design makes it applicable to a wide range of dietary questions involving different nutrients, contaminants and health effects. Account can be taken of variation between consumers in their diets and also other characteristics relevant to the estimation of risk and benefit, such as body weight, gender and age. Uncertainty in any input parameter may be quantified probabilistically, using probability distributions, or deterministically by repeating the assessment with alternative assumptions. Uncertainties that are not quantified should be evaluated qualitatively. Outputs produced by the model are illustrated using results from a simple assessment of fish consumption. More detailed case studies on oily fish and phytosterols are presented in companion papers. The model can be accessed as web-based software at www.qalibra.eu. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

Miniaturized Battery-Free Wireless Systems for Wearable Pulse Oximetry.

PubMed

Kim, Jeonghyun; Gutruf, Philipp; Chiarelli, Antonio M; Heo, Seung Yun; Cho, Kyoungyeon; Xie, Zhaoqian; Banks, Anthony; Han, Seungyoung; Jang, Kyung-In; Lee, Jung Woo; Lee, Kyu-Tae; Feng, Xue; Huang, Yonggang; Fabiani, Monica; Gratton, Gabriele; Paik, Ungyu; Rogers, John A

2017-01-05

Development of unconventional technologies for wireless collection, storage and analysis of quantitative, clinically relevant information on physiological status is of growing interest. Soft, biocompatible systems are widely regarded as important because they facilitate mounting on external (e.g. skin) and internal (e.g. heart, brain) surfaces of the body. Ultra-miniaturized, lightweight and battery-free devices have the potential to establish complementary options in bio-integration, where chronic interfaces (i.e. months) are possible on hard surfaces such as the fingernails and the teeth, with negligible risk for irritation or discomfort. Here we report materials and device concepts for flexible platforms that incorporate advanced optoelectronic functionality for applications in wireless capture and transmission of photoplethysmograms, including quantitative information on blood oxygenation, heart rate and heart rate variability. Specifically, reflectance pulse oximetry in conjunction with near-field communication (NFC) capabilities enables operation in thin, miniaturized flexible devices. Studies of the material aspects associated with the body interface, together with investigations of the radio frequency characteristics, the optoelectronic data acquisition approaches and the analysis methods capture all of the relevant engineering considerations. Demonstrations of operation on various locations of the body and quantitative comparisons to clinical gold standards establish the versatility and the measurement accuracy of these systems, respectively.

Promoting Career Development in the Early Years of a Person's Life through Self- and Career Construction Counselling (Using an Integrated, Qualitative + Quantitative Approach): A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maree, Jacobus G.

2018-01-01

This article reports on the value of career construction counselling (integrating qualitative and quantitative strategies and associated techniques) for a young person. The participant was purposefully selected from a number of people who had sought career counselling in a private practice context. An intrinsic, single-case study design was…

A novel ultrasonic method for measuring breast density and breast cancer risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glide-Hurst, Carri K.; Duric, Neb; Littrup, Peter J.

2008-03-01

Women with high mammographic breast density are at 4- to 6-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared to women with fatty breasts. However, current breast density estimations rely on mammography, which cannot provide accurate volumetric breast representation. Therefore, we explored two techniques of breast density evaluation via ultrasound tomography. A sample of 93 patients was imaged with our clinical prototype; each dataset contained 45-75 tomograms ranging from near the chest wall through the nipple. Whole breast acoustic velocity was determined by creating image stacks and evaluating the sound speed frequency distribution. Ultrasound percent density (USPD) was determined by segmenting high sound speed areas from each tomogram using k-means clustering, integrating over the entire breast, and dividing by total breast area. Both techniques were independently evaluated using two mammographic density measures: (1) qualitative, determined by a radiologist's visual assessment using BI-RADS Categories, and (2) quantitative, via semi-automatic segmentation to calculate mammographic percent density (MPD) for craniocaudal and medio-lateral oblique mammograms. ~140 m/s difference in acoustic velocity was observed between fatty and dense BI-RADS Categories. Increased sound speed was found with increased BI-RADS Category and quantitative MPD. Furthermore, strong positive associations between USPD, BI-RADS Category, and calculated MPD were observed. These results confirm that utilizing sound speed, both for whole-breast evaluation and segmenting locally, can be implemented to evaluate breast density.

Adoption of Building Information Modelling in project planning risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mering, M. M.; Aminudin, E.; Chai, C. S.; Zakaria, R.; Tan, C. S.; Lee, Y. Y.; Redzuan, A. A.

2017-11-01

An efficient and effective risk management required a systematic and proper methodology besides knowledge and experience. However, if the risk management is not discussed from the starting of the project, this duty is notably complicated and no longer efficient. This paper presents the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in project planning risk management. The objectives is to identify the traditional risk management practices and its function, besides, determine the best function of BIM in risk management and investigating the efficiency of adopting BIM-based risk management during the project planning phase. In order to obtain data, a quantitative approach is adopted in this research. Based on data analysis, the lack of compliance with project requirements and failure to recognise risk and develop responses to opportunity are the risks occurred when traditional risk management is implemented. When using BIM in project planning, it works as the tracking of cost control and cash flow give impact on the project cycle to be completed on time. 5D cost estimation or cash flow modeling benefit risk management in planning, controlling and managing budget and cost reasonably. There were two factors that mostly benefit a BIM-based technology which were formwork plan with integrated fall plan and design for safety model check. By adopting risk management, potential risks linked with a project and acknowledging to those risks can be identified to reduce them to an acceptable extent. This means recognizing potential risks and avoiding threat by reducing their negative effects. The BIM-based risk management can enhance the planning process of construction projects. It benefits the construction players in various aspects. It is important to know the application of BIM-based risk management as it can be a lesson learnt to others to implement BIM and increase the quality of the project.

Methods for assessing geodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwoliński, Zbigniew; Najwer, Alicja; Giardino, Marco

2017-04-01

The accepted systematics of geodiversity assessment methods will be presented in three categories: qualitative, quantitative and qualitative-quantitative. Qualitative methods are usually descriptive methods that are suited to nominal and ordinal data. Quantitative methods use a different set of parameters and indicators to determine the characteristics of geodiversity in the area being researched. Qualitative-quantitative methods are a good combination of the collection of quantitative data (i.e. digital) and cause-effect data (i.e. relational and explanatory). It seems that at the current stage of the development of geodiversity research methods, qualitative-quantitative methods are the most advanced and best assess the geodiversity of the study area. Their particular advantage is the integration of data from different sources and with different substantive content. Among the distinguishing features of the quantitative and qualitative-quantitative methods for assessing geodiversity are their wide use within geographic information systems, both at the stage of data collection and data integration, as well as numerical processing and their presentation. The unresolved problem for these methods, however, is the possibility of their validation. It seems that currently the best method of validation is direct filed confrontation. Looking to the next few years, the development of qualitative-quantitative methods connected with cognitive issues should be expected, oriented towards ontology and the Semantic Web.

Risk of Adverse Health Outcomes and Decrements in Performance Due to In-flight Medical Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Antonsen,Erik

2017-01-01

The drive to undertake long-duration space exploration missions at greater distances from Earth gives rise to many challenges concerning human performance under extreme conditions. At NASA, the Human Research Program (HRP) has been established to investigate the specific risks to astronaut health and performance presented by space exploration, in addition to developing necessary countermeasures and technology to reduce risk and facilitate safer, more productive missions in space (NASA Human Research Program 2009). The HRP is divided into five subsections, covering behavioral health, space radiation, habitability, and other areas of interest. Within this structure is the ExMC Element, whose research contributes to the overall development of new technologies to overcome the challenges of expanding human exploration and habitation of space. The risk statement provided by the HRP to the ExMC Element states: "Given that medical conditions/events will occur during human spaceflight missions, there is a possibility of adverse health outcomes and decrements in performance in mission and for long term health" (NASA Human Research Program 2016). Within this risk context, the Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) Element is specifically concerned with establishing evidenced-based methods of monitoring and maintaining astronaut health. Essential to completing this task is the advancement in techniques that identify, prevent, and treat any health threats that may occur during space missions. The ultimate goal of the ExMC Element is to develop and demonstrate a pathway for medical system integration into vehicle and mission design to mitigate the risk of medical issues. Integral to this effort is inclusion of an evidence-based medical and data handling system appropriate for long-duration, exploration-class missions. This requires a clear Concept of Operations, quantitative risk metrics or other tools to address changing risk throughout a mission, and system scoping and system engineering. Because of the novel nature of the risks involved in exploration missions, new and complex ethical challenges are likely to be encountered. This document describes the relevant background and evidence that informs the development of an exploration medical system.

Integrating Quantitative Skills in Introductory Ecology: Investigations of Wild Bird Feeding Preferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Small, Christine J.; Newtoff, Kiersten N.

2013-01-01

Undergraduate biology education is undergoing dramatic changes, emphasizing student training in the "tools and practices" of science, particularly quantitative and problem-solving skills. We redesigned a freshman ecology lab to emphasize the importance of scientific inquiry and quantitative reasoning in biology. This multi-week investigation uses…

Exploring Phytoplankton Population Investigation Growth to Enhance Quantitative Literacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baumgartner, Erin; Biga, Lindsay; Bledsoe, Karen; Dawson, James; Grammer, Julie; Howard, Ava; Snyder, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

Quantitative literacy is essential to biological literacy (and is one of the core concepts in "Vision and Change in Undergraduate Biology Education: A Call to Action"; AAAS 2009). Building quantitative literacy is a challenging endeavor for biology instructors. Integrating mathematical skills into biological investigations can help build…

Integrating Quantitative and Ethnographic Methods to Describe the Classroom. Report No. 5083.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malitz, David; And Others

The debate between proponents of ethnographic and quantitative methodology in classroom observation is reviewed, and the respective strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches are discussed. These methodologies are directly compared in a study that conducted simultaneous ethnographic and quantitative observations on nine classrooms. It is…

Understanding outbreaks of waterborne infectious disease: quantitative microbial risk assessment vs. epidemiology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Drinking water contaminated with microbial pathogens can cause outbreaks of infectious disease, and these outbreaks are traditionally studied using epidemiologic methods. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) can predict – and therefore help prevent – such outbreaks, but it has never been r...

Quantitative Assessment of Cancer Risk from Exposure to Diesel Engine Emissions

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative estimates of lung cancer risk from exposure to diesel engine emissions were developed using data from three chronic bioassays with Fischer 344 rats. uman target organ dose was estimated with the aid of a comprehensive dosimetry model. This model accounted for rat-hum...

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial Installation of Software for Watershed Modeling in Support of QMRA - Updated 2017

EPA Science Inventory

This tutorial provides instructions for accessing, retrieving, and downloading the following software to install on a host computer in support of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) modeling: • QMRA Installation • SDMProjectBuilder (which includes the Microbial ...

CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

EPA Science Inventory

INTRODUCTION: GETTING FROM TOXICOLOGY TO QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR CUMULATIVE RISK

Hugh A. Barton1 and Carey N. Pope2
1US EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC
2Department of...

75 FR 22817 - Emerging Infectious Diseases: Evaluation to Implementation for Transfusion and Transplantation...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-30

... Quantitative Risk Assessment: Blood Safety and Availability; Public Workshops AGENCY: Food and Drug... and Transplantation Safety'' (EID public workshop) and ``Quantitative Risk Assessment: Blood Safety... Research (HFM-302), Food and Drug Administration, 1401 Rockville Pike, Suite 550N, Rockville, MD 20852-1448...

Use of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to Improve Interpretation of a Recreational Water Epidemiological Study

EPA Science Inventory

We conducted a supplemental water quality monitoring study and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to complement the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) National Epidemiological and Environmental Assessment of Recreational Water study at Boquerón ...

Dating Violence among High-Risk Young Women: A Systematic Review Using Quantitative and Qualitative Methods

PubMed Central

Joly, Lauren E.; Connolly, Jennifer

2016-01-01

Our systematic review identified 21 quantitative articles and eight qualitative articles addressing dating violence among high risk young women. The groups of high-risk young women in this review include street-involved, justice-involved, pregnant or parenting, involved with Child Protective Services, and youth diagnosed with a mental health issue. Our meta-analysis of the quantitative articles indicated that 34% (CI = 0.24–0.45) of high-risk young women report that they have been victims of physical dating violence and 45% (CI = 0.31–0.61) of these young women report perpetrating physical dating violence. Significant moderator variables included questionnaire and timeframe. Meta-synthesis of the qualitative studies revealed that high-risk young women report perpetrating dating violence to gain power and respect, whereas women report becoming victims of dating violence due to increased vulnerability. PMID:26840336

Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de; Mekel, Odile C.L., E-mail: odile.mekel@lzg.nrw.de; Fintan Hurley, J., E-mail: fintan.hurley@iom-world.org

Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them beingmore » maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.« less

Use of surrogate indicators for the evaluation of potential health risks due to poor urban water quality: A Bayesian Network approach.

PubMed

Wijesiri, Buddhi; Deilami, Kaveh; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2018-02-01

Urban water pollution poses risks of waterborne infectious diseases. Therefore, in order to improve urban liveability, effective pollution mitigation strategies are required underpinned by predictions generated using water quality models. However, the lack of reliability in current modelling practices detrimentally impacts planning and management decision making. This research study adopted a novel approach in the form of Bayesian Networks to model urban water quality to better investigate the factors that influence risks to human health. The application of Bayesian Networks was found to enhance the integration of quantitative and qualitative spatially distributed data for analysing the influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors using three surrogate indicators of human health risk, namely, turbidity, total nitrogen and fats/oils. Expert knowledge was found to be of critical importance in assessing the interdependent relationships between health risk indicators and influential factors. The spatial variability maps of health risk indicators developed enabled the initial identification of high risk areas in which flooding was found to be the most significant influential factor in relation to human health risk. Surprisingly, population density was found to be less significant in influencing health risk indicators. These high risk areas in turn can be subjected to more in-depth investigations instead of the entire region, saving time and resources. It was evident that decision making in relation to the design of pollution mitigation strategies needs to account for the impact of landscape characteristics on water quality, which can be related to risk to human health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative analysis of factors that affect oil pipeline network accident based on Bayesian networks: A case study in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chao; Qin, Ting Xin; Huang, Shuai; Wu, Jian Song; Meng, Xin Yan

2018-06-01

Some factors can affect the consequences of oil pipeline accident and their effects should be analyzed to improve emergency preparation and emergency response. Although there are some qualitative analysis models of risk factors' effects, the quantitative analysis model still should be researched. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian network (BN) model of risk factors' effects analysis in an oil pipeline accident case that happened in China. The incident evolution diagram is built to identify the risk factors. And the BN model is built based on the deployment rule for factor nodes in BN and the expert knowledge by Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Then the probabilities of incident consequences and risk factors' effects can be calculated. The most likely consequences given by this model are consilient with the case. Meanwhile, the quantitative estimations of risk factors' effects may provide a theoretical basis to take optimal risk treatment measures for oil pipeline management, which can be used in emergency preparation and emergency response.

Quantitative prediction of oral cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

PubMed

Liu, Yao; Li, Yicheng; Fu, Yue; Liu, Tong; Liu, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Xinyan; Fu, Jie; Guan, Xiaobing; Chen, Tong; Chen, Xiaoxin; Sun, Zheng

2017-07-11

Exfoliative cytology has been widely used for early diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma. We have developed an oral cancer risk index using DNA index value to quantitatively assess cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia, but with limited success. In order to improve the performance of the risk index, we collected exfoliative cytology, histopathology, and clinical follow-up data from two independent cohorts of normal, leukoplakia and cancer subjects (training set and validation set). Peaks were defined on the basis of first derivatives with positives, and modern machine learning techniques were utilized to build statistical prediction models on the reconstructed data. Random forest was found to be the best model with high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (99.2%). Using the Peaks-Random Forest model, we constructed an index (OCRI2) as a quantitative measurement of cancer risk. Among 11 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 over 0.5, 4 (36.4%) developed cancer during follow-up (23 ± 20 months), whereas 3 (5.3%) of 57 leukoplakia patients with an OCRI2 less than 0.5 developed cancer (32 ± 31 months). OCRI2 is better than other methods in predicting oral squamous cell carcinoma during follow-up. In conclusion, we have developed an exfoliative cytology-based method for quantitative prediction of cancer risk in patients with oral leukoplakia.

12 CFR 614.4362 - Loan and lease concentration risk mitigation policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... include: (1) A purpose and objective; (2) Clearly defined and consistently used terms; (3) Quantitative... exceptions and reporting requirements. (b) Quantitative methods. (1) At a minimum, the quantitative methods...

12 CFR 614.4362 - Loan and lease concentration risk mitigation policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... include: (1) A purpose and objective; (2) Clearly defined and consistently used terms; (3) Quantitative... exceptions and reporting requirements. (b) Quantitative methods. (1) At a minimum, the quantitative methods...

12 CFR 614.4362 - Loan and lease concentration risk mitigation policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... include: (1) A purpose and objective; (2) Clearly defined and consistently used terms; (3) Quantitative... exceptions and reporting requirements. (b) Quantitative methods. (1) At a minimum, the quantitative methods...

Quantitative AOP-based predictions for two aromatase inhibitors evaluating the influence of bioaccumulation on prediction accuracy

EPA Science Inventory

The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework can be used to support the use of mechanistic toxicology data as a basis for risk assessment. For certain risk contexts this includes defining, quantitative linkages between the molecular initiating event (MIE) and subsequent key events...

Studying Biology to Understand Risk: Dosimetry Models and Quantitative Adverse Outcome Pathways

EPA Science Inventory

Confidence in the quantitative prediction of risk is increased when the prediction is based to as great an extent as possible on the relevant biological factors that constitute the pathway from exposure to adverse outcome. With the first examples now over 40 years old, physiologi...

DOSIMETRY MODELING OF INHALED FORMALDEHYDE: BINNING NASAL FLUX PREDICTIONS FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Dosimetry Modeling of Inhaled Formaldehyde: Binning Nasal Flux Predictions for Quantitative Risk Assessment. Kimbell, J.S., Overton, J.H., Subramaniam, R.P., Schlosser, P.M., Morgan, K.T., Conolly, R.B., and Miller, F.J. (2001). Toxicol. Sci. 000, 000:000.

Interspecies e...

Agreement between quantitative microbial risk assessment and epidemiology at low doses during waterborne outbreaks of protozoan disease

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is a valuable complement to epidemiology for understanding the health impacts of waterborne pathogens. The approach works by extrapolating available data in two ways. First, dose-response data are typically extrapolated from feeding studies, which use ...

16 CFR 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

16 CFR 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

16 CFR § 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

16 CFR 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

16 CFR 1500.135 - Summary of guidelines for determining chronic toxicity.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... Research on Cancer's (IARC) Group 1, or the American National Standards Institute's (ANSI) Category 1. A... or quantitative limitations with respect to experimental procedures (e.g., doses, exposure, follow-up... absorption of the toxic substance, and (D) Dose. (3) Assessment of Risk. This section on quantitative risk...

Integrative review of older adult loneliness and social isolation in Aotearoa/New Zealand.

PubMed

Wright-St Clair, Valerie A; Neville, Stephen; Forsyth, Vanessa; White, Lindsey; Napier, Sara

2017-06-01

To conduct an integrative review of empirical studies of loneliness for older people in Aotearoa/New Zealand. Loneliness is a risk factor for older people's poor physical and cognitive health, serious illness and mortality. A national survey showed loneliness rates vary by gender and ethnicity. A systematic search of health and social science databases was conducted. Of 21 scrutinised articles, nine were eligible for inclusion and subjected to independent quality appraisal. One qualitative and eight quantitative research articles were selected. Reported levels and rates of loneliness vary across age cohorts. Loneliness was significantly related to social isolation, living alone, depression, suicidal ideation, being female, being Māori and having a visual impairment. Qualitatively, older Korean immigrants experienced loneliness and social isolation, along with language and cultural differences. Amongst older New Zealanders loneliness is commonly experienced by particular ethnic groups, highlighting a priority for targetted health and social services. © 2017 The Authors. Australasian Journal on Ageing published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of AJA Inc.

Health and social care regulation in Wales: an integrated system of political, corporate and professional governance for improving public health.

PubMed

Jewell, Tony; Wilkinson, Jane

2008-11-01

Wales is developing a unique integrated system of governance to improve public health, which is diverging from some recent developments in the rest of the UK but shares many common features. There is a focus on strengthening collaborative working and co-ordination between bodies inspecting, regulating and auditing health and social care. Systems are being developed that are proportionate to the level of risk, eliminate unnecessary burdens of external review and support the improvement of services for patients, service users and carers. This is consistent with the Assembly Government's aim to improve the way that public services are delivered in Wales, including strengthening input from the public in the planning, delivery and reporting of regulation and inspection work. The test in the future will be how far we can demonstrate quantitatively and qualitatively the added value from our uniquely Welsh approach, built as it is on devolution and the aspirations for small-country governance.

Knowledge of the signs and symptoms and risk factors of lung cancer in Australia: mixed methods study.

PubMed

Crane, Melanie; Scott, Nicola; O'Hara, Blythe J; Aranda, Sanchia; Lafontaine, Mayanne; Stacey, Ingrid; Varlow, Megan; Currow, David

2016-06-13

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in Australia. There is potential that health promotion about the risks and warning signs of lung cancer could be used to reduce delays in symptom presentation when symptoms are first detected. This study investigated knowledge, attitudes and beliefs which might impact help-seeking behaviour and could provide insight into possible public health interventions in New South Wales (NSW). A convergent mixed method study design was used wherein data from 16 qualitative focus groups of residents (40+ years), purposefully recruited and stratified by smoking status, age and geography (metropolitan/regional), were compared with a CATI administered population-wide telephone survey (n = 1,000) using the Cancer Research UK cancer awareness measure (LungCAM). Qualitative findings were analysed thematically using NVIVO. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate predictors of symptom knowledge in STATA. Findings were integrated using triangulation techniques. Across focus groups, haemoptysis was the only symptom creating a sense of medical urgency. Life experiences evoked a 'wait and see' attitude to any health deterioration. Perceived risk was low amongst those at risk with current smokers preferring to deny their risk while former smokers were generally unaware of any ongoing risk. The quantitative sample consisted of females (62 %), 40-65 years (53 %), low SES (53 %), former (46 %) and current smokers (14 %). In quantitative findings, haemoptysis and dyspnoea were the most recognised symptoms across the sample population. Age (<65 years), sex (female) and high socio-economic status contributed to a higher recognition of symptoms. Smoking was recognised as a cause of lung cancer, yet ever-smokers were less likely to recognise the risk of lung cancer due to second-hand smoke (OR 0.7 95 % CI 0.5-0.9). While there was some recognition of risk factors and symptoms indicative of lung cancer, there was disparity across the sample population. The qualitative findings also suggest that knowledge may not lead to earlier presentation; a lack of urgency about symptoms considered trivial, and smoking-related barriers such as stigma may also contribute to time delays in presentation. Public health interventions may be required to increase awareness of risk and emphasise the importance of seeking medical attention for ongoing symptoms.

Study on quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for natural gas pipelines based on fuzzy comprehensive assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Zeyang; Liang, Wei; Wang, Xue; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Meng

2017-05-01

As an important part of national energy supply system, transmission pipelines for natural gas are possible to cause serious environmental pollution, life and property loss in case of accident. The third party damage is one of the most significant causes for natural gas pipeline system accidents, and it is very important to establish an effective quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage for reducing the number of gas pipelines operation accidents. Against the third party damage accident has the characteristics such as diversity, complexity and uncertainty, this paper establishes a quantitative risk assessment model of the third party damage based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE). Firstly, risk sources of third party damage should be identified exactly, and the weight of factors could be determined via improved AHP, finally the importance of each factor is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the quantitative risk assessment model is suitable for the third party damage of natural gas pipelines and improvement measures could be put forward to avoid accidents based on the importance of each factor.

Consensus report on the future of animal-free systemic toxicity testing.

PubMed

Leist, Marcel; Hasiwa, Nina; Rovida, Costanza; Daneshian, Mardas; Basketter, David; Kimber, Ian; Clewell, Harvey; Gocht, Tilman; Goldberg, Alan; Busquet, Francois; Rossi, Anna-Maria; Schwarz, Michael; Stephens, Martin; Taalman, Rob; Knudsen, Thomas B; McKim, James; Harris, Georgina; Pamies, David; Hartung, Thomas

2014-01-01

Since March 2013, animal use for cosmetics testing for the European market has been banned. This requires a renewed view on risk assessment in this field. However, in other fields as well, traditional animal experimentation does not always satisfy requirements in safety testing, as the need for human-relevant information is ever increasing. A general strategy for animal-free test approaches was outlined by the US National Research Council`s vision document for Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century in 2007. It is now possible to provide a more defined roadmap on how to implement this vision for the four principal areas of systemic toxicity evaluation: repeat dose organ toxicity, carcinogenicity, reproductive toxicity and allergy induction (skin sensitization), as well as for the evaluation of toxicant metabolism (toxicokinetics) (Fig. 1). CAAT-Europe assembled experts from Europe, America and Asia to design a scientific roadmap for future risk assessment approaches and the outcome was then further discussed and refined in two consensus meetings with over 200 stakeholders. The key recommendations include: focusing on improving existing methods rather than favoring de novo design; combining hazard testing with toxicokinetics predictions; developing integrated test strategies; incorporating new high content endpoints to classical assays; evolving test validation procedures; promoting collaboration and data-sharing of different industrial sectors; integrating new disciplines, such as systems biology and high throughput screening; and involving regulators early on in the test development process. A focus on data quality, combined with increased attention to the scientific background of a test method, will be important drivers. Information from each test system should be mapped along adverse outcome pathways. Finally, quantitative information on all factors and key events will be fed into systems biology models that allow a probabilistic risk assessment with flexible adaptation to exposure scenarios and individual risk factors.

Assessing and predicting drug-induced anticholinergic risks: an integrated computational approach.

PubMed

Xu, Dong; Anderson, Heather D; Tao, Aoxiang; Hannah, Katia L; Linnebur, Sunny A; Valuck, Robert J; Culbertson, Vaughn L

2017-11-01

Anticholinergic (AC) adverse drug events (ADEs) are caused by inhibition of muscarinic receptors as a result of designated or off-target drug-receptor interactions. In practice, AC toxicity is assessed primarily based on clinician experience. The goal of this study was to evaluate a novel concept of integrating big pharmacological and healthcare data to assess clinical AC toxicity risks. AC toxicity scores (ATSs) were computed using drug-receptor inhibitions identified through pharmacological data screening. A longitudinal retrospective cohort study using medical claims data was performed to quantify AC clinical risks. ATS was compared with two previously reported toxicity measures. A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model was established for rapid assessment and prediction of AC clinical risks. A total of 25 common medications, and 575,228 exposed and unexposed patients were analyzed. Our data indicated that ATS is more consistent with the trend of AC outcomes than other toxicity methods. Incorporating drug pharmacokinetic parameters to ATS yielded a QSAR model with excellent correlation to AC incident rate ( R 2 = 0.83) and predictive performance (cross validation Q 2 = 0.64). Good correlation and predictive performance ( R 2 = 0.68/ Q 2 = 0.29) were also obtained for an M2 receptor-specific QSAR model and tachycardia, an M2 receptor-specific ADE. Albeit using a small medication sample size, our pilot data demonstrated the potential and feasibility of a new computational AC toxicity scoring approach driven by underlying pharmacology and big data analytics. Follow-up work is under way to further develop the ATS scoring approach and clinical toxicity predictive model using a large number of medications and clinical parameters.

Multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, or dysfunctional? Team working in mixed-methods research.

PubMed

O'Cathain, Alicia; Murphy, Elizabeth; Nicholl, Jon

2008-11-01

Combining qualitative and quantitative methods in a single study-otherwise known as mixed-methods research-is common. In health research these projects can be delivered by research teams. A typical scenario, for example, involves medical sociologists delivering qualitative components and researchers from medicine or health economics delivering quantitative components. We undertook semistructured interviews with 20 researchers who had worked on mixed-methods studies in health services research to explore the facilitators of and barriers to exploiting the potential of this approach. Team working emerged as a key issue, with three models of team working apparent: multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, and dysfunctional. Interdisciplinary research was associated with integration of data or findings from the qualitative and quantitative components in both the final reports and the peer-reviewed publications. Methodological respect between team members and a principal investigator who valued integration emerged as essential to achieving integrated research outcomes.

Status and future of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment in China

PubMed Central

Dong, Q.L.; Barker, G.C.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Tian, M.S.; Song, X.Y.; Malakar, P.K.

2015-01-01

Since the implementation of the Food Safety Law of the People's Republic of China in 2009 use of Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) has increased. QMRA is used to assess the risk posed to consumers by pathogenic bacteria which cause the majority of foodborne outbreaks in China. This review analyses the progress of QMRA research in China from 2000 to 2013 and discusses 3 possible improvements for the future. These improvements include planning and scoping to initiate QMRA, effectiveness of microbial risk assessment utility for risk management decision making, and application of QMRA to establish appropriate Food Safety Objectives. PMID:26089594

Integrating Social impacts on Health and Health-Care Systems in Systemic Seismic Vulnerability Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunz-Plapp, T.; Khazai, B.; Daniell, J. E.

2012-04-01

This paper presents a new method for modeling health impacts caused by earthquake damage which allows for integrating key social impacts on individual health and health-care systems and for implementing these impacts in quantitative systemic seismic vulnerability analysis. In current earthquake casualty estimation models, demand on health-care systems is estimated by quantifying the number of fatalities and severity of injuries based on empirical data correlating building damage with casualties. The expected number of injured people (sorted by priorities of emergency treatment) is combined together with post-earthquake reduction of functionality of health-care facilities such as hospitals to estimate the impact on healthcare systems. The aim here is to extend these models by developing a combined engineering and social science approach. Although social vulnerability is recognized as a key component for the consequences of disasters, social vulnerability as such, is seldom linked to common formal and quantitative seismic loss estimates of injured people which provide direct impact on emergency health care services. Yet, there is a consensus that factors which affect vulnerability and post-earthquake health of at-risk populations include demographic characteristics such as age, education, occupation and employment and that these factors can aggravate health impacts further. Similarly, there are different social influences on the performance of health care systems after an earthquake both on an individual as well as on an institutional level. To link social impacts of health and health-care services to a systemic seismic vulnerability analysis, a conceptual model of social impacts of earthquakes on health and the health care systems has been developed. We identified and tested appropriate social indicators for individual health impacts and for health care impacts based on literature research, using available European statistical data. The results will be used to develop a socio-physical model of systemic seismic vulnerability that enhances the further understanding of societal seismic risk by taking into account social vulnerability impacts for health and health-care system, shelter, and transportation.

Providing Quantitative Information and a Nudge to Undergo Stool Testing in a Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Schwartz, Peter H; Perkins, Susan M; Schmidt, Karen K; Muriello, Paul F; Althouse, Sandra; Rawl, Susan M

2017-08-01

Guidelines recommend that patient decision aids should provide quantitative information about probabilities of potential outcomes, but the impact of this information is unknown. Behavioral economics suggests that patients confused by quantitative information could benefit from a "nudge" towards one option. We conducted a pilot randomized trial to estimate the effect sizes of presenting quantitative information and a nudge. Primary care patients (n = 213) eligible for colorectal cancer screening viewed basic screening information and were randomized to view (a) quantitative information (quantitative module), (b) a nudge towards stool testing with the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) (nudge module), (c) neither a nor b, or (d) both a and b. Outcome measures were perceived colorectal cancer risk, screening intent, preferred test, and decision conflict, measured before and after viewing the decision aid, and screening behavior at 6 months. Patients viewing the quantitative module were more likely to be screened than those who did not ( P = 0.012). Patients viewing the nudge module had a greater increase in perceived colorectal cancer risk than those who did not ( P = 0.041). Those viewing the quantitative module had a smaller increase in perceived risk than those who did not ( P = 0.046), and the effect was moderated by numeracy. Among patients with high numeracy who did not view the nudge module, those who viewed the quantitative module had a greater increase in intent to undergo FIT ( P = 0.028) than did those who did not. The limitations of this study were the limited sample size and single healthcare system. Adding quantitative information to a decision aid increased uptake of colorectal cancer screening, while adding a nudge to undergo FIT did not increase uptake. Further research on quantitative information in decision aids is warranted.

Perception and acceptance of risk from radiation exposure in space flight

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slovic, P

There are a number of factors that influence how a person views a particular risk. These include whether the risk is judged to be voluntary and/or controllable, whether the effects are immediate or delayed, and the magnitude of the benefits that are to be gained as a result of being exposed to the risk. An important aspect of the last factor is whether those who suffer the risks are also those who stand to reap the benefits. The manner in which risk is viewed is also significantly influenced by the manner in which it is framed and presented. In short,more » risk does not exist in the world independent of our minds and cultures, waiting to be measured. Assessments of risk are based on models whose structure is subjective and associated evaluations are laden with assumptions whose inputs are dependent on judgments. In fact, subjectivity permeates every aspect of risk assessment. The assessment of radiation risks in space is no exception. The structuring of the problem includes judgments related to the probability, magnitude, and effects of the various types of radiation likely to be encountered and assumptions related to the quantitative relationship between dose and a range of specific effects, all of which have associated uncertainties. For these reasons, there is no magic formula that will lead us to a precise level of acceptable risk from exposure to radiation in space. Acceptable risk levels must evolve through a process of negotiation that integrates a large number of social, technical, and economic factors. In the end, a risk that is deemed to be acceptable will be the outgrowth of the weighing of risks and benefits and the selection of the option that appears to be best.« less

Quantitative Literacy across the Curriculum: Integrating Skills from English Composition, Mathematics, and the Substantive Disciplines

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Jane E.

2010-01-01

Quantitative literacy is an important proficiency that pertains to "word problems" from science, history, and other fields. Unfortunately, teaching how to solve such problems often is relegated to math courses alone. This article examines how quantitative literacy also involves concepts and skills from English composition and the substantive…

Integrating Quantitative Thinking into an Introductory Biology Course Improves Students' Mathematical Reasoning in Biological Contexts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hester, Susan; Buxner, Sanlyn; Elfring, Lisa; Nagy, Lisa

2014-01-01

Recent calls for improving undergraduate biology education have emphasized the importance of students learning to apply quantitative skills to biological problems. Motivated by students' apparent inability to transfer their existing quantitative skills to biological contexts, we designed and taught an introductory molecular and cell biology course…

Focused Group Interviews as an Innovative Quanti-Qualitative Methodology (QQM): Integrating Quantitative Elements into a Qualitative Methodology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grim, Brian J.; Harmon, Alison H.; Gromis, Judy C.

2006-01-01

There is a sharp divide between quantitative and qualitative methodologies in the social sciences. We investigate an innovative way to bridge this gap that incorporates quantitative techniques into a qualitative method, the "quanti-qualitative method" (QQM). Specifically, our research utilized small survey questionnaires and experiment-like…

Visualizing the Critique: Integrating Quantitative Reasoning with the Design Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weinstein, Kathryn

2017-01-01

In the age of "Big Data," information is often quantitative in nature. The ability to analyze information through the sifting of data has been identified as a core competency for success in navigating daily life and participation in the contemporary workforce. This skill, known as Quantitative Reasoning (QR), is characterized by the…

NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 1; System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Benjamin, Allan; Everett, Christopher; Smith, Curtis; Stamatelatos, Michael; Youngblood, Robert

2011-01-01

System safety assessment is defined in NPR 8715.3C, NASA General Safety Program Requirements as a disciplined, systematic approach to the analysis of risks resulting from hazards that can affect humans, the environment, and mission assets. Achievement of the highest practicable degree of system safety is one of NASA's highest priorities. Traditionally, system safety assessment at NASA and elsewhere has focused on the application of a set of safety analysis tools to identify safety risks and formulate effective controls.1 Familiar tools used for this purpose include various forms of hazard analyses, failure modes and effects analyses, and probabilistic safety assessment (commonly also referred to as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)). In the past, it has been assumed that to show that a system is safe, it is sufficient to provide assurance that the process for identifying the hazards has been as comprehensive as possible and that each identified hazard has one or more associated controls. The NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has made several statements in its annual reports supporting a more holistic approach. In 2006, it recommended that "... a comprehensive risk assessment, communication and acceptance process be implemented to ensure that overall launch risk is considered in an integrated and consistent manner." In 2009, it advocated for "... a process for using a risk-informed design approach to produce a design that is optimally and sufficiently safe." As a rationale for the latter advocacy, it stated that "... the ASAP applauds switching to a performance-based approach because it emphasizes early risk identification to guide designs, thus enabling creative design approaches that might be more efficient, safer, or both." For purposes of this preface, it is worth mentioning three areas where the handbook emphasizes a more holistic type of thinking. First, the handbook takes the position that it is important to not just focus on risk on an individual basis but to consider measures of aggregate safety risk and to ensure wherever possible that there be quantitative measures for evaluating how effective the controls are in reducing these aggregate risks. The term aggregate risk, when used in this handbook, refers to the accumulation of risks from individual scenarios that lead to a shortfall in safety performance at a high level: e.g., an excessively high probability of loss of crew, loss of mission, planetary contamination, etc. Without aggregated quantitative measures such as these, it is not reasonable to expect that safety has been optimized with respect to other technical and programmatic objectives. At the same time, it is fully recognized that not all sources of risk are amenable to precise quantitative analysis and that the use of qualitative approaches and bounding estimates may be appropriate for those risk sources. Second, the handbook stresses the necessity of developing confidence that the controls derived for the purpose of achieving system safety not only handle risks that have been identified and properly characterized but also provide a general, more holistic means for protecting against unidentified or uncharacterized risks. For example, while it is not possible to be assured that all credible causes of risk have been identified, there are defenses that can provide protection against broad categories of risks and thereby increase the chances that individual causes are contained. Third, the handbook strives at all times to treat uncertainties as an integral aspect of risk and as a part of making decisions. The term "uncertainty" here does not refer to an actuarial type of data analysis, but rather to a characterization of our state of knowledge regarding results from logical and physical models that approximate reality. Uncertainty analysis finds how the output parameters of the models are related to plausible variations in the input parameters and in the modeling assumptions. The evaluation of unrtainties represents a method of probabilistic thinking wherein the analyst and decision makers recognize possible outcomes other than the outcome perceived to be "most likely." Without this type of analysis, it is not possible to determine the worth of an analysis product as a basis for making decisions related to safety and mission success. In line with these considerations the handbook does not take a hazard-analysis-centric approach to system safety. Hazard analysis remains a useful tool to facilitate brainstorming but does not substitute for a more holistic approach geared to a comprehensive identification and understanding of individual risk issues and their contributions to aggregate safety risks. The handbook strives to emphasize the importance of identifying the most critical scenarios that contribute to the risk of not meeting the agreed-upon safety objectives and requirements using all appropriate tools (including but not limited to hazard analysis). Thereafter, emphasis shifts to identifying the risk drivers that cause these scenarios to be critical and ensuring that there are controls directed toward preventing or mitigating the risk drivers. To address these and other areas, the handbook advocates a proactive, analytic-deliberative, risk-informed approach to system safety, enabling the integration of system safety activities with systems engineering and risk management processes. It emphasizes how one can systematically provide the necessary evidence to substantiate the claim that a system is safe to within an acceptable risk tolerance, and that safety has been achieved in a cost-effective manner. The methodology discussed in this handbook is part of a systems engineering process and is intended to be integral to the system safety practices being conducted by the NASA safety and mission assurance and systems engineering organizations. The handbook posits that to conclude that a system is adequately safe, it is necessary to consider a set of safety claims that derive from the safety objectives of the organization. The safety claims are developed from a hierarchy of safety objectives and are therefore hierarchical themselves. Assurance that all the claims are true within acceptable risk tolerance limits implies that all of the safety objectives have been satisfied, and therefore that the system is safe. The acceptable risk tolerance limits are provided by the authority who must make the decision whether or not to proceed to the next step in the life cycle. These tolerances are therefore referred to as the decision maker's risk tolerances. In general, the safety claims address two fundamental facets of safety: 1) whether required safety thresholds or goals have been achieved, and 2) whether the safety risk is as low as possible within reasonable impacts on cost, schedule, and performance. The latter facet includes consideration of controls that are collective in nature (i.e., apply generically to broad categories of risks) and thereby provide protection against unidentified or uncharacterized risks.

Quantitative maps of genetic interactions in yeast - comparative evaluation and integrative analysis.

PubMed

Lindén, Rolf O; Eronen, Ville-Pekka; Aittokallio, Tero

2011-03-24

High-throughput genetic screening approaches have enabled systematic means to study how interactions among gene mutations contribute to quantitative fitness phenotypes, with the aim of providing insights into the functional wiring diagrams of genetic interaction networks on a global scale. However, it is poorly known how well these quantitative interaction measurements agree across the screening approaches, which hinders their integrated use toward improving the coverage and quality of the genetic interaction maps in yeast and other organisms. Using large-scale data matrices from epistatic miniarray profiling (E-MAP), genetic interaction mapping (GIM), and synthetic genetic array (SGA) approaches, we carried out here a systematic comparative evaluation among these quantitative maps of genetic interactions in yeast. The relatively low association between the original interaction measurements or their customized scores could be improved using a matrix-based modelling framework, which enables the use of single- and double-mutant fitness estimates and measurements, respectively, when scoring genetic interactions. Toward an integrative analysis, we show how the detections from the different screening approaches can be combined to suggest novel positive and negative interactions which are complementary to those obtained using any single screening approach alone. The matrix approximation procedure has been made available to support the design and analysis of the future screening studies. We have shown here that even if the correlation between the currently available quantitative genetic interaction maps in yeast is relatively low, their comparability can be improved by means of our computational matrix approximation procedure, which will enable integrative analysis and detection of a wider spectrum of genetic interactions using data from the complementary screening approaches.

Quantitative risk stratification in Markov chains with limiting conditional distributions.

PubMed

Chan, David C; Pollett, Philip K; Weinstein, Milton C

2009-01-01

Many clinical decisions require patient risk stratification. The authors introduce the concept of limiting conditional distributions, which describe the equilibrium proportion of surviving patients occupying each disease state in a Markov chain with death. Such distributions can quantitatively describe risk stratification. The authors first establish conditions for the existence of a positive limiting conditional distribution in a general Markov chain and describe a framework for risk stratification using the limiting conditional distribution. They then apply their framework to a clinical example of a treatment indicated for high-risk patients, first to infer the risk of patients selected for treatment in clinical trials and then to predict the outcomes of expanding treatment to other populations of risk. For the general chain, a positive limiting conditional distribution exists only if patients in the earliest state have the lowest combined risk of progression or death. The authors show that in their general framework, outcomes and population risk are interchangeable. For the clinical example, they estimate that previous clinical trials have selected the upper quintile of patient risk for this treatment, but they also show that expanded treatment would weakly dominate this degree of targeted treatment, and universal treatment may be cost-effective. Limiting conditional distributions exist in most Markov models of progressive diseases and are well suited to represent risk stratification quantitatively. This framework can characterize patient risk in clinical trials and predict outcomes for other populations of risk.

Integration of RAMS in LCC analysis for linear transport infrastructures. A case study for railways.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calle-Cordón, Álvaro; Jiménez-Redondo, Noemi; Morales-Gámiz, F. J.; García-Villena, F. A.; Garmabaki, Amir H. S.; Odelius, Johan

2017-09-01

Life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis is an economic technique used to assess the total costs associated with the lifetime of a system in order to support decision making in long term strategic planning. For complex systems, such as railway and road infrastructures, the cost of maintenance plays an important role in the LCC analysis. Costs associated with maintenance interventions can be more reliably estimated by integrating the probabilistic nature of the failures associated to these interventions in the LCC models. Reliability, Maintainability, Availability and Safety (RAMS) parameters describe the maintenance needs of an asset in a quantitative way by using probabilistic information extracted from registered maintenance activities. Therefore, the integration of RAMS in the LCC analysis allows obtaining reliable predictions of system maintenance costs and the dependencies of these costs with specific cost drivers through sensitivity analyses. This paper presents an innovative approach for a combined RAMS & LCC methodology for railway and road transport infrastructures being developed under the on-going H2020 project INFRALERT. Such RAMS & LCC analysis provides relevant probabilistic information to be used for condition and risk-based planning of maintenance activities as well as for decision support in long term strategic investment planning.

75 FR 69065 - Draft Toxicological Review of Urea: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-10

... Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) AGENCY: Environmental Protection..., ``Toxicological Review of Urea: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS...: The draft ``Toxicological Review of Urea: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Homologous and heterologous recombination between adenovirus vector DNA and chromosomal DNA.

PubMed

Stephen, Sam Laurel; Sivanandam, Vijayshankar Ganesh; Kochanek, Stefan

2008-11-01

Adenovirus vector DNA is perceived to remain as episome following gene transfer. We quantitatively and qualitatively analysed recombination between high capacity adenoviral vector (HC-AdV) and chromosomal DNA following gene transfer in vitro. We studied homologous and heterologous recombination with a single HC-AdV carrying (i) a large genomic HPRT fragment with the HPRT CHICAGO mutation causing translational stop upon homologous recombination with the HPRT locus and (ii) a selection marker to allow for clonal selection in the event of heterologous recombination. We analysed the sequences at the junctions between vector and chromosomal DNA. In primary cells and in cell lines, the frequency of homologous recombination ranged from 2 x 10(-5) to 1.6 x 10(-6). Heterologous recombination occurred at rates between 5.5 x 10(-3) and 1.1 x 10(-4). HC-AdV DNA integrated via the termini mostly as intact molecules. Analysis of the junction sequences indicated vector integration in a relatively random manner without an obvious preference for particular chromosomal regions, but with a preference for integration into genes. Integration into protooncogenes or tumor suppressor genes was not observed. Patchy homologies between vector termini and chromosomal DNA were found at the site of integration. Although the majority of integrations had occurred without causing mutations in the chromosomal DNA, cases of nucleotide substitutions and insertions were observed. In several cases, deletions of even relative large chromosomal regions were likely. These results extend previous information on the integration patterns of adenovirus vector DNA and contribute to a risk-benefit assessment of adenovirus-mediated gene transfer.

Easy calculations of lod scores and genetic risks on small computers.

PubMed Central

Lathrop, G M; Lalouel, J M

1984-01-01

A computer program that calculates lod scores and genetic risks for a wide variety of both qualitative and quantitative genetic traits is discussed. An illustration is given of the joint use of a genetic marker, affection status, and quantitative information in counseling situations regarding Duchenne muscular dystrophy. PMID:6585139

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial: HSPF Setup, Application, and Calibration of Flows and Microbial Fate and Transport on an Example Watershed

EPA Science Inventory

A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) infrastructure that automates the manual process of characterizing transport of pathogens and microorganisms, from the source of release to a point of exposure, has been developed by loosely configuring a set of modules and process-...

77 FR 41985 - Use of Influenza Disease Models To Quantitatively Evaluate the Benefits and Risks of Vaccines: A...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-17

... Evaluation and Research (CBER) and suggestions for further development. The public workshop will include... Evaluation and Research (HFM-210), Food and Drug Administration, 1401 Rockville Pike, suite 200N, Rockville... models to generate quantitative estimates of the benefits and risks of influenza vaccination. The public...

78 FR 9701 - Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-11

... on the sources of L. monocytogenes contamination, the effects of individual manufacturing and/or... DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration [Docket No. FDA-2012-N-1182] Draft Joint Food and Drug Administration/Health Canada Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of...

Racial Differences in Quantitative Measures of Area and Volumetric Breast Density

PubMed Central

McCarthy, Anne Marie; Keller, Brad M.; Pantalone, Lauren M.; Hsieh, Meng-Kang; Synnestvedt, Marie; Conant, Emily F.; Armstrong, Katrina; Kontos, Despina

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Increased breast density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer and also decreases the sensitivity of mammographic screening. The purpose of our study was to compare breast density for black and white women using quantitative measures. Methods: Breast density was assessed among 5282 black and 4216 white women screened using digital mammography. Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) density was obtained from radiologists’ reports. Quantitative measures for dense area, area percent density (PD), dense volume, and volume percent density were estimated using validated, automated software. Breast density was categorized as dense or nondense based on BI-RADS categories or based on values above and below the median for quantitative measures. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of having dense breasts by race, adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI), age at menarche, menopause status, family history of breast or ovarian cancer, parity and age at first birth, and current hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: There was a statistically significant interaction of race and BMI on breast density. After accounting for age, BMI, and breast cancer risk factors, black women had statistically significantly greater odds of high breast density across all quantitative measures (eg, PD nonobese odds ratio [OR] = 1.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02 to 1.37, P = .03, PD obese OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.53, P = .02). There was no statistically significant difference in BI-RADS density by race. Conclusions: After accounting for age, BMI, and other risk factors, black women had higher breast density than white women across all quantitative measures previously associated with breast cancer risk. These results may have implications for risk assessment and screening. PMID:27130893

Distinguishing nanomaterial particles from background airborne particulate matter for quantitative exposure assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono-Ogasawara, Mariko; Serita, Fumio; Takaya, Mitsutoshi

2009-10-01

As the production of engineered nanomaterials quantitatively expands, the chance that workers involved in the manufacturing process will be exposed to nanoparticles also increases. A risk management system is needed for workplaces in the nanomaterial industry based on the precautionary principle. One of the problems in the risk management system is difficulty of exposure assessment. In this article, examples of exposure assessment in nanomaterial industries are reviewed with a focus on distinguishing engineered nanomaterial particles from background nanoparticles in workplace atmosphere. An approach by JNIOSH (Japan National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health) to quantitatively measure exposure to carbonaceous nanomaterials is also introduced. In addition to real-time measurements and qualitative analysis by electron microscopy, quantitative chemical analysis is necessary for quantitatively assessing exposure to nanomaterials. Chemical analysis is suitable for quantitative exposure measurement especially at facilities with high levels of background NPs.

A multidisciplinary weight of evidence approach for environmental risk assessment at the Costa Concordia wreck: Integrative indices from Mussel Watch.

PubMed

Regoli, Francesco; Pellegrini, David; Cicero, Anna Maria; Nigro, Marco; Benedetti, Maura; Gorbi, Stefania; Fattorini, Daniele; D'Errico, Giuseppe; Di Carlo, Marta; Nardi, Alessandro; Gaion, Andrea; Scuderi, Alice; Giuliani, Silvia; Romanelli, Giulia; Berto, Daniela; Trabucco, Benedetta; Guidi, Patrizia; Bernardeschi, Margherita; Scarcelli, Vittoria; Frenzilli, Giada

2014-05-01

A complex framework of chemical, biological and oceanographic activities was immediately activated after the Costa Concordia shipwreck, to assess possible contamination events and the environmental impact during both emergency and wreck removal operations. In the present paper, we describe the results obtained with caged mussels, Mytilus galloprovincialis, chosen as bioindicator organisms to detect variations of bioavailability and the early onset of molecular and cellular effects (biomarkers). Seven translocation experiments were carried out during the first year from the incident, with organisms deployed at 2 depths in 3 different sites. After 4-6 weeks, tissue concentrations were measured for the main classes of potentially released chemicals (trace metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile and aliphatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, halogenated pesticides, organotin compounds, brominated flame retardants, anionic surfactants); a wide battery of biomarkers covered responses indicative of exposure, detoxification, oxidative stress, cell damage and genotoxic effects. Results excluded serious contamination events or a consistent increase of environmental pollution although some episodic spills with reversible effects were detected. Data were elaborated within a quantitative weight of evidence (WOE) model which provided synthetic hazard indices for each typology of data, before their overall integration in an environmental risk index, which generally ranged from slight to moderate. The proposed WOE model was confirmed a useful tool to summarize large datasets of complex data in integrative indices, and to simplify the interpretation for stakeholders and decision makers, thus supporting a more comprehensive process of "site-oriented" management decisions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent advances quantifying the large wood dynamics in river basins: New methods and remaining challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Piégay, Hervé; Gurnell, Angela A.; Marston, Richard A.; Stoffel, Markus

2016-09-01

Large wood is an important physical component of woodland rivers and significantly influences river morphology. It is also a key component of stream ecosystems. However, large wood is also a source of risk for human activities as it may damage infrastructure, block river channels, and induce flooding. Therefore, the analysis and quantification of large wood and its mobility are crucial for understanding and managing wood in rivers. As the amount of large-wood-related studies by researchers, river managers, and stakeholders increases, documentation of commonly used and newly available techniques and their effectiveness has also become increasingly relevant as well. Important data and knowledge have been obtained from the application of very different approaches and have generated a significant body of valuable information representative of different environments. This review brings a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative summary of recent advances regarding the different processes involved in large wood dynamics in fluvial systems including wood budgeting and wood mechanics. First, some key definitions and concepts are introduced. Second, advances in quantifying large wood dynamics are reviewed; in particular, how measurements and modeling can be combined to integrate our understanding of how large wood moves through and is retained within river systems. Throughout, we present a quantitative and integrated meta-analysis compiled from different studies and geographical regions. Finally, we conclude by highlighting areas of particular research importance and their likely future trajectories, and we consider a particularly underresearched area so as to stress the future challenges for large wood research.

Efficacy and experiences of telephone counselling for informal carers of people with dementia.

PubMed

Lins, Sabine; Hayder-Beichel, Daniela; Rücker, Gerta; Motschall, Edith; Antes, Gerd; Meyer, Gabriele; Langer, Gero

2014-09-01

Informal carers of people with dementia can suffer from depressive symptoms, emotional distress and other physiological, social and financial consequences. This review focuses on three main objectives:To:1) produce a quantitative review of the efficacy of telephone counselling for informal carers of people with dementia;2) synthesize qualitative studies to explore carers' experiences of receiving telephone counselling and counsellors' experiences of conducting telephone counselling; and3) integrate 1) and 2) to identify aspects of the intervention that are valued and work well, and those interventional components that should be improved or redesigned. The Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group's Specialized Register, The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, CINAHL, PSYNDEX, PsycINFO, Web of Science, DIMDI databases, Springer database, Science direct and trial registers were searched on 3 May 2011 and updated on 25 February 2013. A Forward Citation search was conducted for included studies in Web of Science and Google Scholar. We used the Related Articles service of PubMed for included studies, contacted experts and hand-searched abstracts of five congresses. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or cross-over trials that compared telephone counselling for informal carers of people with dementia against no treatment, usual care or friendly calls for chatting were included evaluation of efficacy. Qualitative studies with qualitative methods of data collection and analysis were also included to address experiences with telephone counselling. Two authors independently screened articles for inclusion criteria, extracted data and assessed the quantitative trials with the Cochrane 'Risk of bias' tool and the qualitative studies with the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) tool. The authors conducted meta-analyses, but reported some results in narrative form due to clinical heterogeneity. The authors synthesised the qualitative data and integrated quantitative RCT data with the qualitative data. Nine RCTs and two qualitative studies were included. Six studies investigated telephone counselling without additional intervention, one study combined telephone counselling with video sessions, and two studies combined it with video sessions and a workbook. All quantitative studies had a high risk of bias in terms of blinding of participants and outcome assessment. Most studies provided no information about random sequence generation and allocation concealment. The quality of the qualitative studies ('thin descriptions') was assessed as moderate. Meta-analyses indicated a reduction of depressive symptoms for telephone counselling without additional intervention (three trials, 163 participants: standardised mean different (SMD) 0.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.01 to 0.63, P value 0.04; moderate quality evidence). The estimated effects on other outcomes (burden, distress, anxiety, quality of life, self-efficacy, satisfaction and social support) were uncertain and differences could not be excluded (burden: four trials, 165 participants: SMD 0.45, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.90, P value 0.05; moderate quality evidence; support: two trials, 67 participants: SMD 0.25, 95% CI -0.24 to 0.73, P value 0.32; low quality evidence). None of the quantitative studies included reported adverse effects or harm due to telephone counselling. Three analytical themes (barriers and facilitators for successful implementation of telephone counselling, counsellor's emotional attitude and content of telephone counselling) and 16 descriptive themes that present the carers' needs for telephone counselling were identified in the thematic synthesis. Integration of quantitative and qualitative data shows potential for improvement. For example, no RCT reported that the counsellor provided 24-hour availability or that there was debriefing of the counsellor. Also, the qualitative studies covered a limited range of ways of performing telephone counselling. There is evidence that telephone counselling can reduce depressive symptoms for carers of people with dementia and that telephone counselling meets important needs of the carer. This result needs to be confirmed in future studies that evaluate efficacy through robust RCTs and the experience aspect through qualitative studies with rich data.

Enhancing the Characterization of Epistemic Uncertainties in PM2.5 Risk Analyses.

PubMed

Smith, Anne E; Gans, Will

2015-03-01

The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) is a software tool developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that is widely used inside and outside of EPA to produce quantitative estimates of public health risks from fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ). This article discusses the purpose and appropriate role of a risk analysis tool to support risk management deliberations, and evaluates the functions of BenMAP in this context. It highlights the importance in quantitative risk analyses of characterization of epistemic uncertainty, or outright lack of knowledge, about the true risk relationships being quantified. This article describes and quantitatively illustrates sensitivities of PM2.5 risk estimates to several key forms of epistemic uncertainty that pervade those calculations: the risk coefficient, shape of the risk function, and the relative toxicity of individual PM2.5 constituents. It also summarizes findings from a review of U.S.-based epidemiological evidence regarding the PM2.5 risk coefficient for mortality from long-term exposure. That review shows that the set of risk coefficients embedded in BenMAP substantially understates the range in the literature. We conclude that BenMAP would more usefully fulfill its role as a risk analysis support tool if its functions were extended to better enable and prompt its users to characterize the epistemic uncertainties in their risk calculations. This requires expanded automatic sensitivity analysis functions and more recognition of the full range of uncertainty in risk coefficients. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Towards an integrated approach to natural hazards risk assessment using GIS: with reference to bushfires.

PubMed

Chen, Keping; Blong, Russell; Jacobson, Carol

2003-04-01

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.

Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mog, Robert A.

1997-01-01

Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

Rock Slide Risk Assessment: A Semi-Quantitative Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duzgun, H. S. B.

2009-04-01

Rock slides can be better managed by systematic risk assessments. Any risk assessment methodology for rock slides involves identification of rock slide risk components, which are hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability. For a quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment for rock slides, a mathematical value the risk has to be computed and evaluated. The quantitative evaluation of risk for rock slides enables comparison of the computed risk with the risk of other natural and/or human-made hazards and providing better decision support and easier communication for the decision makers. A quantitative/semi-quantitative risk assessment procedure involves: Danger Identification, Hazard Assessment, Elements at Risk Identification, Vulnerability Assessment, Risk computation, Risk Evaluation. On the other hand, the steps of this procedure require adaptation of existing or development of new implementation methods depending on the type of landslide, data availability, investigation scale and nature of consequences. In study, a generic semi-quantitative risk assessment (SQRA) procedure for rock slides is proposed. The procedure has five consecutive stages: Data collection and analyses, hazard assessment, analyses of elements at risk and vulnerability and risk assessment. The implementation of the procedure for a single rock slide case is illustrated for a rock slope in Norway. Rock slides from mountain Ramnefjell to lake Loen are considered to be one of the major geohazards in Norway. Lake Loen is located in the inner part of Nordfjord in Western Norway. Ramnefjell Mountain is heavily jointed leading to formation of vertical rock slices with height between 400-450 m and width between 7-10 m. These slices threaten the settlements around Loen Valley and tourists visiting the fjord during summer season, as the released slides have potential of creating tsunami. In the past, several rock slides had been recorded from the Mountain Ramnefjell between 1905 and 1950. Among them, four of the slides caused formation of tsunami waves which washed up to 74 m above the lake level. Two of the slides resulted in many fatalities in the inner part of the Loen Valley as well as great damages. There are three predominant joint structures in Ramnefjell Mountain, which controls failure and the geometry of the slides. The first joint set is a foliation plane striking northeast-southwest and dipping 35˚ -40˚ to the east-southeast. The second and the third joint sets are almost perpendicular and parallel to the mountain side and scarp, respectively. These three joint sets form slices of rock columns with width ranging between 7-10 m and height of 400-450 m. It is stated that the joints in set II are opened between 1-2 m, which may bring about collection of water during heavy rainfall or snow melt causing the slices to be pressed out. It is estimated that water in the vertical joints both reduces the shear strength of sliding plane and causes reduction of normal stress on the sliding plane due to formation of uplift force. Hence rock slides in Ramnefjell mountain occur in plane failure mode. The quantitative evaluation of rock slide risk requires probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability and identification of consequences if the rock slide occurs. In this study failure probability of a rock slice is evaluated by first-order reliability method (FORM). Then in order to use the calculated probability of failure value (Pf) in risk analyses, it is required to associate this Pf with frequency based probabilities (i.ePf / year) since the computed failure probabilities is a measure of hazard and not a measure of risk unless they are associated with the consequences of the failure. This can be done by either considering the time dependent behavior of the basic variables in the probabilistic models or associating the computed Pf with frequency of the failures in the region. In this study, the frequency of previous rock slides in the previous century in Remnefjell is used for evaluation of frequency based probability to be used in risk assessment. The major consequence of a rock slide is generation of a tsunami in the lake Loen, causing inundation of residential areas around the lake. Risk is assessed by adapting damage probability matrix approach, which is originally developed for risk assessment for buildings in case of earthquake.

Quantitative proteomics analysis using 2D-PAGE to investigate the effects of cigarette smoke and aerosol of a prototypic modified risk tobacco product on the lung proteome in C57BL/6 mice.

PubMed

Elamin, Ashraf; Titz, Bjoern; Dijon, Sophie; Merg, Celine; Geertz, Marcel; Schneider, Thomas; Martin, Florian; Schlage, Walter K; Frentzel, Stefan; Talamo, Fabio; Phillips, Blaine; Veljkovic, Emilija; Ivanov, Nikolai V; Vanscheeuwijck, Patrick; Peitsch, Manuel C; Hoeng, Julia

2016-08-11

Smoking is associated with several serious diseases, such as lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Within our systems toxicology framework, we are assessing whether potential modified risk tobacco products (MRTP) can reduce smoking-related health risks compared to conventional cigarettes. In this article, we evaluated to what extent 2D-PAGE/MALDI MS/MS (2D-PAGE) can complement the iTRAQ LC-MS/MS results from a previously reported mouse inhalation study, in which we assessed a prototypic MRTP (pMRTP). Selected differentially expressed proteins identified by both LC-MS/MS and 2D-PAGE approaches were further verified using reverse-phase protein microarrays. LC-MS/MS captured the effects of cigarette smoke (CS) on the lung proteome more comprehensively than 2D-PAGE. However, an integrated analysis of both proteomics data sets showed that 2D-PAGE data complement the LC-MS/MS results by supporting the overall trend of lower effects of pMRTP aerosol than CS on the lung proteome. Biological effects of CS exposure supported by both methods included increases in immune-related, surfactant metabolism, proteasome, and actin cytoskeleton protein clusters. Overall, while 2D-PAGE has its value, especially as a complementary method for the analysis of effects on intact proteins, LC-MS/MS approaches will likely be the method of choice for proteome analysis in systems toxicology investigations. Quantitative proteomics is anticipated to play a growing role within systems toxicology assessment frameworks in the future. To further understand how different proteomics technologies can contribute to toxicity assessment, we conducted a quantitative proteomics analysis using 2D-PAGE and isobaric tag-based LC-MS/MS approaches and compared the results produced from the 2 approaches. Using a prototypic modified risk tobacco product (pMRTP) as our test item, we show compared with cigarette smoke, how 2D-PAGE results can complement and support LC-MS/MS data, demonstrating the much lower effects of pMRTP aerosol than cigarette smoke on the mouse lung proteome. The combined analysis of 2D-PAGE and LC-MS/MS data identified an effect of cigarette smoke on the proteasome and actin cytoskeleton in the lung. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

76 FR 57033 - Draft Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-15

... Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System..., ``Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System...-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' is available...

Using quantitative risk information in decisions about statins: a qualitative study in a community setting.

PubMed

Polak, Louisa; Green, Judith

2015-04-01

A large literature informs guidance for GPs about communicating quantitative risk information so as to facilitate shared decision making. However, relatively little has been written about how patients utilise such information in practice. To understand the role of quantitative risk information in patients' accounts of decisions about taking statins. This was a qualitative study, with participants recruited and interviewed in community settings. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 34 participants aged >50 years, all of whom had been offered statins. Data were analysed thematically, using elements of the constant comparative method. Interviewees drew frequently on numerical test results to explain their decisions about preventive medication. In contrast, they seldom mentioned quantitative risk information, and never offered it as a rationale for action. Test results were spoken of as objects of concern despite an often-explicit absence of understanding, so lack of understanding seems unlikely to explain the non-use of risk estimates. Preventive medication was seen as 'necessary' either to treat test results, or because of personalised, unequivocal advice from a doctor. This study's findings call into question the assumption that people will heed and use numerical risk information once they understand it; these data highlight the need to consider the ways in which different kinds of knowledge are used in practice in everyday contexts. There was little evidence from this study that understanding probabilistic risk information was a necessary or valued condition for making decisions about statin use. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Quantitative option analysis for implementation and management of landfills.

PubMed

Kerestecioğlu, Merih

2016-09-01

The selection of the most feasible strategy for implementation of landfills is a challenging step. Potential implementation options of landfills cover a wide range, from conventional construction contracts to the concessions. Montenegro, seeking to improve the efficiency of the public services while maintaining affordability, was considering privatisation as a way to reduce public spending on service provision. In this study, to determine the most feasible model for construction and operation of a regional landfill, a quantitative risk analysis was implemented with four steps: (i) development of a global risk matrix; (ii) assignment of qualitative probabilities of occurrences and magnitude of impacts; (iii) determination of the risks to be mitigated, monitored, controlled or ignored; (iv) reduction of the main risk elements; and (v) incorporation of quantitative estimates of probability of occurrence and expected impact for each risk element in the reduced risk matrix. The evaluated scenarios were: (i) construction and operation of the regional landfill by the public sector; (ii) construction and operation of the landfill by private sector and transfer of the ownership to the public sector after a pre-defined period; and (iii) operation of the landfill by the private sector, without ownership. The quantitative risk assessment concluded that introduction of a public private partnership is not the most feasible option, unlike the common belief in several public institutions in developing countries. A management contract for the first years of operation was advised to be implemented, after which, a long term operating contract may follow. © The Author(s) 2016.

On the Edge of Mathematics and Biology Integration: Improving Quantitative Skills in Undergraduate Biology Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feser, Jason; Vasaly, Helen; Herrera, Jose

2013-01-01

In this paper, the authors describe how two institutions are helping their undergraduate biology students build quantitative competencies. Incorporation of quantitative skills and reasoning in biology are framed through a discussion of two cases that both concern introductory biology courses, but differ in the complexity of the mathematics and the…

Transcending the Quantitative-Qualitative Divide with Mixed Methods Research: A Multidimensional Framework for Understanding Congruence and Completeness in the Study of Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLafferty, Charles L., Jr.; Slate, John R.; Onwuegbuzie, Anthony J.

2010-01-01

Quantitative research dominates published literature in the helping professions. Mixed methods research, which integrates quantitative and qualitative methodologies, has received a lukewarm reception. The authors address the iterative separation that infuses theory, praxis, philosophy, methodology, training, and public perception and propose a…

Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Results in Health Science Mixed Methods Research Through Joint Displays.

PubMed

Guetterman, Timothy C; Fetters, Michael D; Creswell, John W

2015-11-01

Mixed methods research is becoming an important methodology to investigate complex health-related topics, yet the meaningful integration of qualitative and quantitative data remains elusive and needs further development. A promising innovation to facilitate integration is the use of visual joint displays that bring data together visually to draw out new insights. The purpose of this study was to identify exemplar joint displays by analyzing the various types of joint displays being used in published articles. We searched for empirical articles that included joint displays in 3 journals that publish state-of-the-art mixed methods research. We analyzed each of 19 identified joint displays to extract the type of display, mixed methods design, purpose, rationale, qualitative and quantitative data sources, integration approaches, and analytic strategies. Our analysis focused on what each display communicated and its representation of mixed methods analysis. The most prevalent types of joint displays were statistics-by-themes and side-by-side comparisons. Innovative joint displays connected findings to theoretical frameworks or recommendations. Researchers used joint displays for convergent, explanatory sequential, exploratory sequential, and intervention designs. We identified exemplars for each of these designs by analyzing the inferences gained through using the joint display. Exemplars represented mixed methods integration, presented integrated results, and yielded new insights. Joint displays appear to provide a structure to discuss the integrated analysis and assist both researchers and readers in understanding how mixed methods provides new insights. We encourage researchers to use joint displays to integrate and represent mixed methods analysis and discuss their value. © 2015 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Results in Health Science Mixed Methods Research Through Joint Displays

PubMed Central

Guetterman, Timothy C.; Fetters, Michael D.; Creswell, John W.

2015-01-01

PURPOSE Mixed methods research is becoming an important methodology to investigate complex health-related topics, yet the meaningful integration of qualitative and quantitative data remains elusive and needs further development. A promising innovation to facilitate integration is the use of visual joint displays that bring data together visually to draw out new insights. The purpose of this study was to identify exemplar joint displays by analyzing the various types of joint displays being used in published articles. METHODS We searched for empirical articles that included joint displays in 3 journals that publish state-of-the-art mixed methods research. We analyzed each of 19 identified joint displays to extract the type of display, mixed methods design, purpose, rationale, qualitative and quantitative data sources, integration approaches, and analytic strategies. Our analysis focused on what each display communicated and its representation of mixed methods analysis. RESULTS The most prevalent types of joint displays were statistics-by-themes and side-by-side comparisons. Innovative joint displays connected findings to theoretical frameworks or recommendations. Researchers used joint displays for convergent, explanatory sequential, exploratory sequential, and intervention designs. We identified exemplars for each of these designs by analyzing the inferences gained through using the joint display. Exemplars represented mixed methods integration, presented integrated results, and yielded new insights. CONCLUSIONS Joint displays appear to provide a structure to discuss the integrated analysis and assist both researchers and readers in understanding how mixed methods provides new insights. We encourage researchers to use joint displays to integrate and represent mixed methods analysis and discuss their value. PMID:26553895

Development and Assessment of Modules to Integrate Quantitative Skills in Introductory Biology Courses.

PubMed

Hoffman, Kathleen; Leupen, Sarah; Dowell, Kathy; Kephart, Kerrie; Leips, Jeff

2016-01-01

Redesigning undergraduate biology courses to integrate quantitative reasoning and skill development is critical to prepare students for careers in modern medicine and scientific research. In this paper, we report on the development, implementation, and assessment of stand-alone modules that integrate quantitative reasoning into introductory biology courses. Modules are designed to improve skills in quantitative numeracy, interpreting data sets using visual tools, and making inferences about biological phenomena using mathematical/statistical models. We also examine demographic/background data that predict student improvement in these skills through exposure to these modules. We carried out pre/postassessment tests across four semesters and used student interviews in one semester to examine how students at different levels approached quantitative problems. We found that students improved in all skills in most semesters, although there was variation in the degree of improvement among skills from semester to semester. One demographic variable, transfer status, stood out as a major predictor of the degree to which students improved (transfer students achieved much lower gains every semester, despite the fact that pretest scores in each focus area were similar between transfer and nontransfer students). We propose that increased exposure to quantitative skill development in biology courses is effective at building competency in quantitative reasoning. © 2016 K. Hoffman, S. Leupen, et al. CBE—Life Sciences Education © 2016 The American Society for Cell Biology. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). It is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

Navigational Traffic Conflict Technique: A Proactive Approach to Quantitative Measurement of Collision Risks in Port Waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debnath, Ashim Kumar; Chin, Hoong Chor

Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of the low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possessing great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

Assessing integrity of insect RNA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessing total RNA integrity is important for the success of downstream RNA applications. The 2100 Bioanalyzer system with the RNA Integrity Number (RIN) provides a quantitative measure of RNA degradation. Although RINs may not be ascertained for RNA from all organisms, namely those with unusual or...

Optimisation of Critical Infrastructure Protection: The SiVe Project on Airport Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breiing, Marcus; Cole, Mara; D'Avanzo, John; Geiger, Gebhard; Goldner, Sascha; Kuhlmann, Andreas; Lorenz, Claudia; Papproth, Alf; Petzel, Erhard; Schwetje, Oliver

This paper outlines the scientific goals, ongoing work and first results of the SiVe research project on critical infrastructure security. The methodology is generic while pilot studies are chosen from airport security. The outline proceeds in three major steps, (1) building a threat scenario, (2) development of simulation models as scenario refinements, and (3) assessment of alternatives. Advanced techniques of systems analysis and simulation are employed to model relevant airport structures and processes as well as offences. Computer experiments are carried out to compare and optimise alternative solutions. The optimality analyses draw on approaches to quantitative risk assessment recently developed in the operational sciences. To exploit the advantages of the various techniques, an integrated simulation workbench is build up in the project.

[A quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse].

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; Chen, Yuzhen; Hu, Chunguang; Zhang, Huaning; Bi, Zhenwang; Bi, Zhenqiang

2015-05-01

To construct a quantitative risk assessment model of salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse and to find out effective interventions to reduce salmonella contamination. We constructed a modular process risk model (MPRM) from evisceration to chilling in Excel Sheet using the data of the process parameters in poultry and the Salmomella concentration surveillance of Jinan in 2012. The MPRM was simulated by @ risk software. The concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling was 1.96MPN/g which was calculated by model. The sensitive analysis indicated that the correlation coefficient of the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool were 0.84 and 0.34,which were the primary factors to the concentration of salmonella on carcass after chilling. The study provided a quantitative assessment model structure for salmonella on carcass in poultry slaughterhouse. The risk manager could control the contamination of salmonella on carcass after chilling by reducing the concentration of salmonella after defeathering and in chilling pool.

Assessment of the risk of introducing foot-and-mouth disease into Panama via a ferry operating between Cartagena, Colombia and Colon, Panama.

PubMed

White, W R; Crom, R L; Walker, K D

1996-07-23

It should be emphasized that the proposed ferry hazard categorizations do not represent absolute risks for introducing FMD into Panama, but instead provide a systematic method for comparing and estimating risks in the absence of quantitative data. A hazard rating of high may not necessarily represent a high quantitative risk for the introduction of FMD, but is high when compared to other scenarios. A low hazard rating may estimate a low quantitative risk of importing FMD, but economic consequences of a potential outbreak should also be considered. When further data become available, a more complete assessment of the risks of the Crucero Express compared to airplanes, cargo boats, and small boats can be performed. At present, the risk of the Crucero Express is at least as low as the other transport modes described above. Since vehicles are not presently allowed transport from Colombia to Panama, they present no risk to Panama, but with proper cleaning and disinfection procedures, vehicles can be permitted with low risk. However, the Crucero Express can carry 125 vehicles, and thorough cleaning and disinfection of this many cars will require modern and efficient facilities not yet present at either port.

Quantitative assessment of human health risk posed by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in urban road dust.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2017-01-01

Among the numerous pollutants present in urban road dust, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are among the most toxic chemical pollutants and can pose cancer risk to humans. The primary aim of the study was to develop a quantitative model to assess the cancer risk from PAHs in urban road dust based on traffic and land use factors and thereby to characterise the risk posed by PAHs in fine (<150μm) and coarse (>150μm) particles. The risk posed by PAHs was quantified as incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR), which was modelled as a function of traffic volume and percentages of different urban land uses. The study outcomes highlighted the fact that cancer risk from PAHs in urban road dust is primarily influenced by PAHs associated with fine solids. Heavy PAHs with 5 to 6 benzene rings, especially dibenzo[a,h]anthracene (D[a]A) and benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) in the mixture contribute most to the risk. The quantitative model developed based on traffic and land use factors will contribute to informed decision making in relation to the management of risk posed by PAHs in urban road dust. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of personalized colorectal cancer risk information on laypersons' interest in colorectal cancer screening: The importance of individual differences.

PubMed

Han, Paul K J; Duarte, Christine W; Daggett, Susannah; Siewers, Andrea; Killam, Bill; Smith, Kahsi A; Freedman, Andrew N

2015-10-01

To evaluate how personalized quantitative colorectal cancer (CRC) risk information affects laypersons' interest in CRC screening, and to explore factors influencing these effects. An online pre-post experiment was conducted in which a convenience sample (N=578) of laypersons, aged >50, were provided quantitative personalized estimates of lifetime CRC risk, calculated by the National Cancer Institute Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT). Self-reported interest in CRC screening was measured immediately before and after CCRAT use; sociodemographic characteristics and prior CRC screening history were also assessed. Multivariable analyses assessed participants' change in interest in screening, and subgroup differences in this change. Personalized CRC risk information had no overall effect on CRC screening interest, but significant subgroup differences were observed. Change in screening interest was greater among individuals with recent screening (p=.015), higher model-estimated cancer risk (p=.0002), and lower baseline interest (p<.0001), with individuals at highest baseline interest demonstrating negative (not neutral) change in interest. Effects of quantitative personalized CRC risk information on laypersons' interest in CRC screening differ among individuals depending on prior screening history, estimated cancer risk, and baseline screening interest. Personalized cancer risk information has personalized effects-increasing and decreasing screening interest in different individuals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compliance with removable orthodontic appliances.

PubMed

Shah, Nirmal

2017-12-22

Data sourcesMedline via OVID, PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science Core Collection, LILACS and BBO databases. Unpublished clinical trials accessed using ClinicalTrials.gov, National Research Register, ProQuest Dissertation and Thesis database.Study selectionTwo authors searched studies from inception until May 2016 without language restrictions. Quantitative and qualitative studies incorporating objective data on compliance with removable appliances, barriers to appliance wear compliance, and interventions to improve compliance were included.Data extraction and synthesisQuality of research was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's risk of bias tool, the risk of bias in non-randomised studies of interventions (ROBINS-I), and the mixed methods appraisal tool. Statistical heterogeneity was investigated by examining a graphic display of the estimated compliance levels in conjunction with 95% confidence intervals and quantified using the I-squared statistic. A weighted estimate of objective compliance levels for different appliances in relation to stipulated wear and self-reported levels was also calculated. Risk of publication bias was assessed using funnel plots. Meta-regression was undertaken to assess the relative effects of appliance type on compliance levels.ResultsTwenty-four studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 11 were included in the quantitative synthesis. The mean duration of objectively measured wear was considerably lower than stipulated wear time amongst all appliances. Headgear had the greatest discrepancy (5.81 hours, 95% confidence interval, 4.98, 6.64). Self-reported wear time was consistently higher than objectively measured wear time amongst all appliances. Headgear had the greatest discrepancy (5.02 hours, 95% confidence interval, 3.64, 6.40). Two studies found an increase in compliance with headgear and Hawley retainers when patients were aware of monitoring. Five studies found younger age groups to be more compliant than older groups. Three studies also found compliance to be better in the early stages of treatment. Integration between quantitative and qualitative studies was not possible.ConclusionsCompliance with removable orthodontic appliances is suboptimal. Patients wear appliances for considerably less time than stipulated and self-reported. Compliance may be increased when patients are aware of monitoring; however, further research is required to identify effective interventions and possible barriers in order to improve removable orthodontic appliance compliance.

A Methodology for Conducting Integrative Mixed Methods Research and Data Analyses

PubMed Central

Castro, Felipe González; Kellison, Joshua G.; Boyd, Stephen J.; Kopak, Albert

2011-01-01

Mixed methods research has gained visibility within the last few years, although limitations persist regarding the scientific caliber of certain mixed methods research designs and methods. The need exists for rigorous mixed methods designs that integrate various data analytic procedures for a seamless transfer of evidence across qualitative and quantitative modalities. Such designs can offer the strength of confirmatory results drawn from quantitative multivariate analyses, along with “deep structure” explanatory descriptions as drawn from qualitative analyses. This article presents evidence generated from over a decade of pilot research in developing an integrative mixed methods methodology. It presents a conceptual framework and methodological and data analytic procedures for conducting mixed methods research studies, and it also presents illustrative examples from the authors' ongoing integrative mixed methods research studies. PMID:22167325

Quantitative multimodality imaging in cancer research and therapy.

PubMed

Yankeelov, Thomas E; Abramson, Richard G; Quarles, C Chad

2014-11-01

Advances in hardware and software have enabled the realization of clinically feasible, quantitative multimodality imaging of tissue pathophysiology. Earlier efforts relating to multimodality imaging of cancer have focused on the integration of anatomical and functional characteristics, such as PET-CT and single-photon emission CT (SPECT-CT), whereas more-recent advances and applications have involved the integration of multiple quantitative, functional measurements (for example, multiple PET tracers, varied MRI contrast mechanisms, and PET-MRI), thereby providing a more-comprehensive characterization of the tumour phenotype. The enormous amount of complementary quantitative data generated by such studies is beginning to offer unique insights into opportunities to optimize care for individual patients. Although important technical optimization and improved biological interpretation of multimodality imaging findings are needed, this approach can already be applied informatively in clinical trials of cancer therapeutics using existing tools. These concepts are discussed herein.

Biphasic dose responses in biology, toxicology and medicine: accounting for their generalizability and quantitative features.

PubMed

Calabrese, Edward J

2013-11-01

The most common quantitative feature of the hormetic-biphasic dose response is its modest stimulatory response which at maximum is only 30-60% greater than control values, an observation that is consistently independent of biological model, level of organization (i.e., cell, organ or individual), endpoint measured, chemical/physical agent studied, or mechanism. This quantitative feature suggests an underlying "upstream" mechanism common across biological systems, therefore basic and general. Hormetic dose response relationships represent an estimate of the peak performance of integrative biological processes that are allometrically based. Hormetic responses reflect both direct stimulatory or overcompensation responses to damage induced by relatively low doses of chemical or physical agents. The integration of the hormetic dose response within an allometric framework provides, for the first time, an explanation for both the generality and the quantitative features of the hormetic dose response. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

76 FR 71029 - Draft Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-16

... Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System... Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R-11/081A). On September 15, 2011, the... ``Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System...

Quantitative Risks

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-24

Quantitative Risks Technical Report SERC -2015-TR-040-4 February 24, 2015 Principal Investigator: Dr. Gary Witus, Wayne State...0007, RT 107 Report No. SERC -2015-TR-040-4 Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of...Research Center ( SERC ) is a federally funded University Affiliated Research Center managed by Stevens Institute of Technology. This material is

Dispersal of Invasive Forest Insects via Recreational Firewood: A Quantitative Analysis

Treesearch

Frank H. Koch; Denys Yemshanov; Roger D. Magarey; William D. Smith

2012-01-01

Recreational travel is a recognized vector for the spread of invasive species in North America. However, there has been little quantitative analysis of the risks posed by such travel and the associated transport of firewood. In this study, we analyzed the risk of forest insect spread with firewood and estimated related dispersal parameters for application in...

Breach Risk Magnitude: A Quantitative Measure of Database Security.

PubMed

Yasnoff, William A

2016-01-01

A quantitative methodology is described that provides objective evaluation of the potential for health record system breaches. It assumes that breach risk increases with the number of potential records that could be exposed, while it decreases when more authentication steps are required for access. The breach risk magnitude (BRM) is the maximum value for any system user of the common logarithm of the number of accessible database records divided by the number of authentication steps needed to achieve such access. For a one million record relational database, the BRM varies from 5.52 to 6 depending on authentication protocols. For an alternative data architecture designed specifically to increase security by separately storing and encrypting each patient record, the BRM ranges from 1.3 to 2.6. While the BRM only provides a limited quantitative assessment of breach risk, it may be useful to objectively evaluate the security implications of alternative database organization approaches.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Biphenyl (Interagency Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On September 30, 2011, the draft Toxicological Review of Biphenyl and the charge to external peer reviewers were released for external peer review and public comment. The Toxicological Review and charge were reviewed internally by EPA and by other federal agencies and White House Offices before public release. In the new IRIS process (May 2009), introduced by the EPA Administrator, all written comments on IRIS assessments submitted by other federal agencies and White House Offices will be made publicly available. Accordingly, interagency comments and the interagency science consultation draft of the IRIS Toxicological Review of Biphenyl and the charge to external peer reviewers are posted on this site. EPA is undertaking a new health assessment for biphenyl for the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS). The outcome of this project will be a Toxicological Review and IRIS and IRIS Summary of biohenyl that will be entered on the IRIS database. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information to evaluate potential public health risks associated with exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risks associated with environmental contaminants. The IRIS database is relied on for the development of risk ass

Cancer risk at low doses of ionizing radiation: artificial neural networks inference from atomic bomb survivors

PubMed Central

Sasaki, Masao S.; Tachibana, Akira; Takeda, Shunichi

2014-01-01

Cancer risk at low doses of ionizing radiation remains poorly defined because of ambiguity in the quantitative link to doses below 0.2 Sv in atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki arising from limitations in the statistical power and information available on overall radiation dose. To deal with these difficulties, a novel nonparametric statistics based on the ‘integrate-and-fire’ algorithm of artificial neural networks was developed and tested in cancer databases established by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation. The analysis revealed unique features at low doses that could not be accounted for by nominal exposure dose, including (i) the presence of a threshold that varied with organ, gender and age at exposure, and (ii) a small but significant bumping increase in cancer risk at low doses in Nagasaki that probably reflects internal exposure to 239Pu. The threshold was distinct from the canonical definition of zero effect in that it was manifested as negative excess relative risk, or suppression of background cancer rates. Such a unique tissue response at low doses of radiation exposure has been implicated in the context of the molecular basis of radiation–environment interplay in favor of recently emerging experimental evidence on DNA double-strand break repair pathway choice and its epigenetic memory by histone marking. PMID:24366315

Cancer risk at low doses of ionizing radiation: artificial neural networks inference from atomic bomb survivors.

PubMed

Sasaki, Masao S; Tachibana, Akira; Takeda, Shunichi

2014-05-01

Cancer risk at low doses of ionizing radiation remains poorly defined because of ambiguity in the quantitative link to doses below 0.2 Sv in atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki arising from limitations in the statistical power and information available on overall radiation dose. To deal with these difficulties, a novel nonparametric statistics based on the 'integrate-and-fire' algorithm of artificial neural networks was developed and tested in cancer databases established by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation. The analysis revealed unique features at low doses that could not be accounted for by nominal exposure dose, including (i) the presence of a threshold that varied with organ, gender and age at exposure, and (ii) a small but significant bumping increase in cancer risk at low doses in Nagasaki that probably reflects internal exposure to (239)Pu. The threshold was distinct from the canonical definition of zero effect in that it was manifested as negative excess relative risk, or suppression of background cancer rates. Such a unique tissue response at low doses of radiation exposure has been implicated in the context of the molecular basis of radiation-environment interplay in favor of recently emerging experimental evidence on DNA double-strand break repair pathway choice and its epigenetic memory by histone marking.

A Model of Risk Analysis in Analytical Methodology for Biopharmaceutical Quality Control.

PubMed

Andrade, Cleyton Lage; Herrera, Miguel Angel De La O; Lemes, Elezer Monte Blanco

2018-01-01

One key quality control parameter for biopharmaceutical products is the analysis of residual cellular DNA. To determine small amounts of DNA (around 100 pg) that may be in a biologically derived drug substance, an analytical method should be sensitive, robust, reliable, and accurate. In principle, three techniques have the ability to measure residual cellular DNA: radioactive dot-blot, a type of hybridization; threshold analysis; and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management is a systematic process for evaluating, controlling, and reporting of risks that may affects method capabilities and supports a scientific and practical approach to decision making. This paper evaluates, by quality risk management, an alternative approach to assessing the performance risks associated with quality control methods used with biopharmaceuticals, using the tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the steps in an analytical procedure with higher impact on method performance. By applying these principles to DNA analysis methods, we conclude that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the largest number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and threshold analysis. From the analysis of hazards (i.e., points of method failure) and the associated method procedure critical control points, we conclude that the analytical methodology with the lowest risk for performance failure for residual cellular DNA testing is quantitative polymerase chain reaction. LAY ABSTRACT: In order to mitigate the risk of adverse events by residual cellular DNA that is not completely cleared from downstream production processes, regulatory agencies have required the industry to guarantee a very low level of DNA in biologically derived pharmaceutical products. The technique historically used was radioactive blot hybridization. However, the technique is a challenging method to implement in a quality control laboratory: It is laborious, time consuming, semi-quantitative, and requires a radioisotope. Along with dot-blot hybridization, two alternatives techniques were evaluated: threshold analysis and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Quality risk management tools were applied to compare the techniques, taking into account the uncertainties, the possibility of circumstances or future events, and their effects upon method performance. By illustrating the application of these tools with DNA methods, we provide an example of how they can be used to support a scientific and practical approach to decision making and can assess and manage method performance risk using such tools. This paper discusses, considering the principles of quality risk management, an additional approach to the development and selection of analytical quality control methods using the risk analysis tool hazard analysis and critical control points. This tool provides the possibility to find the method procedural steps with higher impact on method reliability (called critical control points). Our model concluded that the radioactive dot-blot assay has the larger number of critical control points, followed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction and threshold analysis. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction is shown to be the better alternative analytical methodology in residual cellular DNA analysis. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

Case management for at-risk elderly patients in the English integrated care pilots: observational study of staff and patient experience and secondary care utilisation

PubMed Central

Roland, Martin; Lewis, Richard; Steventon, Adam; Abel, Gary; Adams, John; Bardsley, Martin; Brereton, Laura; Chitnis, Xavier; Conklin, Annalijn; Staetsky, Laura; Tunkel, Sarah; Ling, Tom

2012-01-01

Introduction In 2009, the English Department of Health appointed 16 integrated care pilots which aimed to provide better integrated care. We report the quantitative results from a multi-method evaluation of six of the demonstration projects which used risk profiling tools to identify older people at risk of emergency hospital admission, combined with intensive case management for people identified as at risk. The interventions focused mainly on delivery system redesign and improved clinical information systems, two key elements of Wagner’s Chronic Care Model. Methods Questionnaires to staff and patients. Difference-in-differences analysis of secondary care utilisation using data on 3646 patients and 17,311 matched controls, and changes in overall secondary care utilisation. Results Most staff thought that care for their patients had improved. More patients reported having a care plan but they found it significantly harder to see a doctor or nurse of their choice and felt less involved in decisions about their care. Case management interventions were associated with a 9% increase in emergency admissions. We found some evidence of imbalance between cases and controls which could have biased this estimate, but simulations of the possible effect of unobserved confounders showed that it was very unlikely that the sites achieved their goal of reducing emergency admissions. However, we found significant reductions of 21% and 22% in elective admissions and outpatient attendance in the six months following an intervention, and overall inpatient and outpatient costs were significantly reduced by 9% during this period. Area level analyses of whole practice populations suggested that overall outpatient attendances were significantly reduced by 5% two years after the start of the case management schemes. Conclusion Case management may result in improvements in some aspects of care and has the potential to reduce secondary care costs. However, to improve patient experience, case management approaches need to be introduced in a way which respects patients’ wishes, for example the ability to see a familiar doctor or nurse. PMID:23593045

The Relative Importance of the Vadose Zone in Multimedia Risk Assessment Modeling Applied at a National Scale: An Analysis of Benzene Using 3MRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babendreier, J. E.

2002-05-01

Evaluating uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-media constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. The challenge of examining ever more complex, integrated, higher-order models is a formidable one, particularly in regulatory settings applied on a national scale. Quantitative assessment of uncertainty and sensitivity within integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a systematic, comparative approach coupled with sufficient computational power. The Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment Model (3MRA) is an important code being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in site-scale risk assessment (e.g. hazardous waste management facilities). The model currently entails over 700 variables, 185 of which are explicitly stochastic. The 3MRA can start with a chemical concentration in a waste management unit (WMU). It estimates the release and transport of the chemical throughout the environment, and predicts associated exposure and risk. The 3MRA simulates multimedia (air, water, soil, sediments), pollutant fate and transport, multipathway exposure routes (food ingestion, water ingestion, soil ingestion, air inhalation, etc.), multireceptor exposures (resident, gardener, farmer, fisher, ecological habitats and populations), and resulting risk (human cancer and non-cancer effects, ecological population and community effects). The 3MRA collates the output for an overall national risk assessment, offering a probabilistic strategy as a basis for regulatory decisions. To facilitate model execution of 3MRA for purposes of conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, a PC-based supercomputer cluster was constructed. Design of SuperMUSE, a 125 GHz Windows-based Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is described, along with the conceptual layout of an accompanying java-based paralleling software toolset. Preliminary work is also reported for a scenario involving Benzene disposal that describes the relative importance of the vadose zone in driving risk levels for ecological receptors and human health. Incorporating landfills, waste piles, aerated tanks, surface impoundments, and land application units, the site-based data used in the analysis included 201 national facilities representing 419 site-WMU combinations.

Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study.

PubMed

Cox, L A; Ricci, P F

2005-04-01

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.

IRIS TOXICOLOGICAL REVIEW AND SUMMARY ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The known toxic effects of perchloroethylene will be summarized, with citations from current scientific literature. The critical effects will be identified, and from this the RfD and RfC and cancer unit risk factors will be derived. The RfD and RfC are reference doses and air concentrations that are generally regarded as safe under conditions of chronic exposure. The cancer unit risks in air and drinking water are the estimated lifetime cancer risks expected to occur from a lifetime exposure to a concentration of 1 microgram per cubic meter in the air and to a drinking water concentration of 1 microgram per liter. This summary document will be peer reviewed within the Agency and by experts outside the Agency according to the standard IRIS procedures. For up-to-date project schedules see IRIS Track at http://cfpub.epa.gov/iristrac/index.cfm The U.S. EPA is conducting a new health assessment of tetrachloroethylene that will appear on the Agency's online database, the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS). IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment process, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific sit

An event-specific method for the detection and quantification of ML01, a genetically modified Saccharomyces cerevisiae wine strain, using quantitative PCR.

PubMed

Vaudano, Enrico; Costantini, Antonella; Garcia-Moruno, Emilia

2016-10-03

The availability of genetically modified (GM) yeasts for winemaking and, in particular, transgenic strains based on the integration of genetic constructs deriving from other organisms into the genome of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, has been a reality for several years. Despite this, their use is only authorized in a few countries and limited to two strains: ML01, able to convert malic acid into lactic acid during alcoholic fermentation, and ECMo01 suitable for reducing the risk of carbamate production. In this work we propose a quali-quantitative culture-independent method for the detection of GM yeast ML01 in commercial preparations of ADY (Active Dry Yeast) consisting of efficient extraction of DNA and qPCR (quantitative PCR) analysis based on event-specific assay targeting MLC (malolactic cassette), and a taxon-specific S. cerevisiae assay detecting the MRP2 gene. The ADY DNA extraction methodology has been shown to provide good purity DNA suitable for subsequent qPCR. The MLC and MRP2 qPCR assay showed characteristics of specificity, dynamic range, limit of quantification (LOQ) limit of detection (LOD), precision and trueness, which were fully compliant with international reference guidelines. The method has been shown to reliably detect 0.005% (mass/mass) of GM ML01 S. cerevisiae in commercial preparations of ADY. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kienhuis, Anne S., E-mail: anne.kienhuis@rivm.nl; RIKILT, Institute of Food Safety, Wageningen UR, PO Box 230, 6700 AE, Wageningen; Netherlands Toxicogenomics Centre

Hepatic systems toxicology is the integrative analysis of toxicogenomic technologies, e.g., transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, in combination with traditional toxicology measures to improve the understanding of mechanisms of hepatotoxic action. Hepatic toxicology studies that have employed toxicogenomic technologies to date have already provided a proof of principle for the value of hepatic systems toxicology in hazard identification. In the present review, acetaminophen is used as a model compound to discuss the application of toxicogenomics in hepatic systems toxicology for its potential role in the risk assessment process, to progress from hazard identification towards hazard characterization. The toxicogenomics-based parallelogram is usedmore » to identify current achievements and limitations of acetaminophen toxicogenomic in vivo and in vitro studies for in vitro-to-in vivo and interspecies comparisons, with the ultimate aim to extrapolate animal studies to humans in vivo. This article provides a model for comparison of more species and more in vitro models enhancing the robustness of common toxicogenomic responses and their relevance to human risk assessment. To progress to quantitative dose-response analysis needed for hazard characterization, in hepatic systems toxicology studies, generation of toxicogenomic data of multiple doses/concentrations and time points is required. Newly developed bioinformatics tools for quantitative analysis of toxicogenomic data can aid in the elucidation of dose-responsive effects. The challenge herein is to assess which toxicogenomic responses are relevant for induction of the apical effect and whether perturbations are sufficient for the induction of downstream events, eventually causing toxicity.« less

Review of Department of Defense Education Activity (DoDEA) Schools. Volume II: Quantitative Analysis of Educational Quality. IDA Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Lowell Bruce; Bracken, Jerome; Bracken, Marilyn C.

This volume compiles, and presents in integrated form, the Institute for Defense Analyses' (IDA) quantitative analysis of educational quality provided by the Department of Defense's dependent schools. It covers the quantitative aspects of volume 1 in greater detail and presents some analyses deemed too technical for that volume. The first task in…

The Relationship between Student's Quantitative Skills, Application of Math, Science Courses, and Science Marks at Single-Sex Independent High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cambridge, David

2012-01-01

For independent secondary schools who offer rigorous curriculum to attract students, integration of quantitative skills in the science courses has become an important definition of rigor. However, there is little research examining students' quantitative skills in relation to high school science performance within the single-sex independent school…

Manpower Systems Integration Factors for Frigate Design in the Turkish Navy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

factors for frigate design in the Turkish Navy. The qualitative and quantitative analyses of the correlation between ship design specifications and...frigates. The correlation between the ship design characteristics and the manpower requirements is supported by the quantitative analysis. This... design in the Turkish Navy. The qualitative and quantitative analyses of the correlation between ship design specifications and manpower requirements

Quantitative Resistance to Plant Pathogens in Pyramiding Strategies for Durable Crop Protection.

PubMed

Pilet-Nayel, Marie-Laure; Moury, Benoît; Caffier, Valérie; Montarry, Josselin; Kerlan, Marie-Claire; Fournet, Sylvain; Durel, Charles-Eric; Delourme, Régine

2017-01-01

Quantitative resistance has gained interest in plant breeding for pathogen control in low-input cropping systems. Although quantitative resistance frequently has only a partial effect and is difficult to select, it is considered more durable than major resistance (R) genes. With the exponential development of molecular markers over the past 20 years, resistance QTL have been more accurately detected and better integrated into breeding strategies for resistant varieties with increased potential for durability. This review summarizes current knowledge on the genetic inheritance, molecular basis, and durability of quantitative resistance. Based on this knowledge, we discuss how strategies that combine major R genes and QTL in crops can maintain the effectiveness of plant resistance to pathogens. Combining resistance QTL with complementary modes of action appears to be an interesting strategy for breeding effective and potentially durable resistance. Combining quantitative resistance with major R genes has proven to be a valuable approach for extending the effectiveness of major genes. In the plant genomics era, improved tools and methods are becoming available to better integrate quantitative resistance into breeding strategies. Nevertheless, optimal combinations of resistance loci will still have to be identified to preserve resistance effectiveness over time for durable crop protection.

Assessment of timeliness, representativeness and quality of data reported to Italy's national integrated surveillance system for acute viral hepatitis (SEIEVA).

PubMed

Tosti, M E; Longhi, S; de Waure, C; Mele, A; Franco, E; Ricciardi, W; Filia, A

2015-05-01

Periodic assessment of surveillance systems is recommended to verify whether they are appropriately monitoring the public health problem under surveillance. The aim of this study was to evaluate timeliness, data quality and representativeness of data reported to the Italian Integrated Epidemiological System for Acute Viral Hepatitis (SEIEVA). Cross-sectional analysis of surveillance data. Quantitative indicators were used to evaluate representativeness of reported cases, data quality, and timeliness between surveillance steps, for reports of acute viral hepatitis cases with date of onset of symptoms from 2009 to 2012 (N = 4516). Representativeness was 75%. Over 95% of records reported information on age, sex, city of residence, risk factors for hepatitis A and vaccination status. Information on risk factors for hepatitis B and C were reported less consistently (83%), as was information on early outcome (60%). Wide delays were found between surveillance steps. The system collects high quality data on acute viral hepatitis cases in Italy. Timeliness was found to be the main limit and needs to be improved by optimizing web-based reporting procedures, increasing communication with participating centres, improving feedback and increasing dissemination of surveillance results. The study highlights the importance of reporting timeliness to detect outbreaks of acute viral hepatitis. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative Risk Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Helms, J.

2017-02-10

The US energy sector is vulnerable to multiple hazards including both natural disasters and malicious attacks from an intelligent adversary. The question that utility owners, operators and regulators face is how to prioritize their investments to mitigate the risks from a hazard that can have the most impact on the asset of interest. In order to be able to understand their risk landscape and develop a prioritized mitigation strategy, they must quantify risk in a consistent way across all hazards their asset is facing. Without being able to quantitatively measure risk, it is not possible to defensibly prioritize security investmentsmore » or evaluate trade-offs between security and functionality. Development of a methodology that will consistently measure and quantify risk across different hazards is needed.« less

Examining the Relationship among High-School Teachers' Technology Self-Efficacy, Attitudes towards Technology Integration, and Quality of Technology Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gonzales, Stacey

2013-01-01

This quantitative study explored the relationships among high-school teachers' (n = 74) technology self-efficacy, teachers' attitudes towards technology integration, and quality of teachers' technology integration into instruction. This study offered the unique perspectives of in-service high-school teachers as they have first-hand experience…

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia Noncancer Inhalation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In September 2016, EPA finalized the IRIS assessment of Ammonia (Noncancer Inhalation). The Toxicological Review was reviewed internally by EPA and by other federal agencies and White House Offices before public release in June 2016. Consistent with the May 2009 IRIS assessment development process, all written comments on IRIS assessments submitted by other federal agencies and White House Offices are made publicly available. Accordingly, interagency comments and the interagency science discussion materials provided to other agencies, including interagency review drafts of the IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia (Noncancer Inhalation) are posted on this site. Note: No major science comments were received on the Interagency Science Discussion Draft. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for ammonia. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia (Interagency Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On June 1, 2012, the draft Toxicological Review of Ammonia and the draft charge to external peer reviewers were released for external peer review and public comment. The Toxicological Review and charge were reviewed internally by EPA and by other federal agencies and White House Offices before public release. Consistent with the May 2009 IRIS assessment development process, all written comments on IRIS assessments submitted by other federal agencies and White House Offices are made publicly available. Accordingly, interagency comments and the interagency science consultation materials provided to other agencies, including interagency review drafts of the IRIS Toxicological Review of Ammonia and the charge to external peer reviewers, are posted on this site. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for ammonia. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Synthetic biology regulation and governance: Lessons from TAPIC for the United States, European Union, and Singapore.

PubMed

Trump, Benjamin D

2017-11-01

Synthetic biology is an emerging technology with potential benefits to various fields, yet also contains potential risks to human and environmental health. The field remains in an emerging state with limited quantitative guidance and a small but growing population of international researchers that conduct work within this field. Given the uncertain nature of this technology, an adaptive and anticipatory governance framework may be necessary to balance the potential benefits that may accrue from the technology's continued research alongside a desire to reduce or eliminate potential risks that may arise. However, such developments must account for the unique political and institutional factors that form a government's risk culture - something that can facilitate or impede the development of adaptive synthetic biology governance moving forward. The TAPIC framework helps illustrate those factors that are essential to develop good governance for emerging technologies like synthetic biology. Specifically, an application of TAPIC to synthetic biology governance indicates that the factors of accountability, participation, and integrity must be bolstered to improve technology governance in governments like with the United States, European Union, and Singapore. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Predicting evolutionary rescue via evolving plasticity in stochastic environments

PubMed Central

Baskett, Marissa L.

2016-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and its evolution may help evolutionary rescue in a novel and stressful environment, especially if environmental novelty reveals cryptic genetic variation that enables the evolution of increased plasticity. However, the environmental stochasticity ubiquitous in natural systems may alter these predictions, because high plasticity may amplify phenotype–environment mismatches. Although previous studies have highlighted this potential detrimental effect of plasticity in stochastic environments, they have not investigated how it affects extinction risk in the context of evolutionary rescue and with evolving plasticity. We investigate this question here by integrating stochastic demography with quantitative genetic theory in a model with simultaneous change in the mean and predictability (temporal autocorrelation) of the environment. We develop an approximate prediction of long-term persistence under the new pattern of environmental fluctuations, and compare it with numerical simulations for short- and long-term extinction risk. We find that reduced predictability increases extinction risk and reduces persistence because it increases stochastic load during rescue. This understanding of how stochastic demography, phenotypic plasticity, and evolution interact when evolution acts on cryptic genetic variation revealed in a novel environment can inform expectations for invasions, extinctions, or the emergence of chemical resistance in pests. PMID:27655762

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Screening for osteoporosis among post-menopausal women in community pharmacy

PubMed Central

Barris Blundell, Damià; Rodríguez Zarzuelo, Carmen; Sabio Sánchez, Belén; Gutiérrez álvarez, José Luis; Navarro Visa, Elena; Muñoz Valdés, Oscar; Garrido Jiménez, Belén; Gómez, Rocío Sánchez

Objectives To identify postmenopausal women with risk of osteoporosis through quantitative ultrasound imaging (QUI) and to value the medical intervention after the determination of the bone mineral density (BMD). Methods Cross-sectional descriptive study developed in a community pharmacy. During the month of June of 2005 the community pharmacy enrolled postmenopausal women into the study. Women in treatment with calcium, vitamin D, hormone replacement therapy, estrogen receptor modulators, calcitonin or biphosphonates were considered criteria for exclusion. To all the women that consent to participate, the pharmacist measured BMD with the device Sahara Hologic Ultrasound Bone Densitometer at right calcaneus. Following the World Health Organization, women were classified as osteoporotic if their T-Score was less than -2.5 and as osteopenic if their T-Score ranged between -2.5 and -1.0. Results Of the 100 women screened, 11 (11%) presented risk of osteoporosis and 61 (61%) of osteopenia. The 18.5% postmenopausal women with body mass index lesser than 30 presented risk of osteoporosis and the 63.0% osteopenia. Conclusions The QUI constitutes a useful tool in community pharmacy for the screening of osteoporosis and it supposes a greater integration of the community pharmacy within the health care. PMID:25247006

IRIS Toxicological Review of n-Butanol (Interagency Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

On September 8, 2011, the Toxicological Review of n-Butanol (External Review Draft) was released for external peer review and public comment. The Toxicological Review and charge were reviewed internally by EPA and by other federal agencies and White House Offices before public release. In the new IRIS process, introduced by the EPA Administrator, all written comments on IRIS assessments submitted by other federal agencies and White House Offices will be made publicly available. Accordingly, interagency comments with EPA's response and the interagency science consultation draft of the IRIS Toxicological Review of n-Butanol and the charge to external peer reviewers are posted on this site. EPA is undertaking an Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) health assessment for n-butanol. IRIS is an EPA database containing Agency scientific positions on potential adverse human health effects that may result from chronic (or lifetime) exposure to chemicals in the environment. IRIS contains chemical-specific summaries of qualitative and quantitative health information in support of two steps of the risk assessment paradigm, i.e., hazard identification and dose-response evaluation. IRIS assessments are used in combination with specific situational exposure assessment information to evaluate potential public health risk associated with environmental contaminants.

Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge.

PubMed

Buckingham, C D; Ahmed, A; Adams, A E

2007-03-01

Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge.

The effect of prognostic data presentation format on perceived risk among surrogate decision makers of critically ill patients: a randomized comparative trial.

PubMed

Chapman, Andy R; Litton, Edward; Chamberlain, Jenny; Ho, Kwok M

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study is to determine whether varying the format used to present prognostic data alters the perception of risk among surrogate decision makers in the intensive care unit (ICU). This was a prospective randomized comparative trial conducted in a 23-bed adult tertiary ICU. Enrolled surrogate decision makers were randomized to 1 of 2 questionnaires, which presented hypothetical ICU scenarios, identical other than the format in which prognostic data were presented (eg, frequencies vs percentages). Participants were asked to rate the risk associated with each prognostic statement. We enrolled 141 surrogate decision makers. The perception of risk varied significantly dependent on the presentation format. For "quantitative data," risks were consistently perceived as higher, when presented as frequencies (eg, 1 in 50) compared with equivalent percentages (eg, 2%). Framing "qualitative data" in terms of chance of "death" rather than "survival" led to a statistically significant increase in perceived risks. Framing "quantitative" data in this way did not significantly affect risk perception. Data format had a significant effect on how surrogate decision makers interpreted risk. Qualitative statements are interpreted widely and affected by framing. Where possible, multiple quantitative formats should be used for presenting prognostic information. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterizing health risks associated with recreational swimming at Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment.

PubMed

Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Ching-Ping

2018-01-01

Taiwan is surrounded by oceans, and therefore numerous pleasure beaches attract millions of tourists annually to participate in recreational swimming activities. However, impaired water quality because of fecal pollution poses a potential threat to the tourists' health. This study probabilistically characterized the health risks associated with recreational swimming engendered by waterborne enterococci at 13 Taiwanese beaches by using quantitative microbial risk assessment. First, data on enterococci concentrations at coastal beaches monitored by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration were reproduced using nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The ingestion volumes of recreational swimming based on uniform and gamma distributions were subsequently determined using MCS. Finally, after the distribution combination of the two parameters, the beta-Poisson dose-response function was employed to quantitatively estimate health risks to recreational swimmers. Moreover, various levels of risk to recreational swimmers were classified and spatially mapped to explore feasible recreational and environmental management strategies at the beaches. The study results revealed that although the health risks associated with recreational swimming did not exceed an acceptable benchmark of 0.019 illnesses daily at all beaches, they approached to this benchmark at certain beaches. Beaches with relatively high risks are located in Northwestern Taiwan owing to the current movements.

Assessing the reporting of categorised quantitative variables in observational epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Mabikwa, Onkabetse V; Greenwood, Darren C; Baxter, Paul D; Fleming, Sarah J

2017-03-14

One aspect to consider when reporting results of observational studies in epidemiology is how quantitative risk factors are analysed. The STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) guidelines recommend that researchers describe how they handle quantitative variables when analysing data. For categorised quantitative variables, the authors are required to provide reasons and justifications informing their practice. We investigated and assessed the practices and reporting of categorised quantitative variables in epidemiology. The assessment was based on five medical journals that publish epidemiological research. Observational studies published between April and June 2015 and investigating the relationships between quantitative exposures (or risk factors) and the outcomes were considered for assessment. A standard form was used to collect the data, and the reporting patterns amongst eligible studies were quantified and described. Out of 61 articles assessed for eligibility, 23 observational studies were included in the assessment. Categorisation of quantitative exposures occurred in 61% of these studies and reasons informing the practice were rarely provided. Only one article explained the choice of categorisation in the analysis. Transformation of quantitative exposures into four or five groups was common and dominant amongst studies using equally spaced categories. Dichotomisation was not popular; the practice featured in one article. Overall, the majority (86%) of the studies preferred ordered or arbitrary group categories. Other criterions used to decide categorical boundaries were based on established guidelines such as consensus statements and WHO standards. Categorisation of continuous variables remains a dominant practice in epidemiological studies. The reasons informing the practice of categorisation within published work are limited and remain unknown in most articles. The existing STROBE guidelines could provide stronger recommendations on reporting quantitative risk factors in epidemiology.

Women’s Sleep Disorders: Integrative Care

PubMed Central

Frange, Cristina; Banzoli, Carolina Vicente; Colombo, Ana Elisa; Siegler, Marcele; Coelho, Glaury; Bezerra, Andréia Gomes; Csermak, Marcelo; Naufel, Maria Fernanda; Cesar-Netto, Cristiana; Andersen, Monica Levy; Girão, Manoel João Batista Castelo; Tufik, Sergio; Hachul, Helena

2017-01-01

The integrative care model is rooted in a biopsychosocial approach. Integrative is a term which refers to increasing the harmony and coherence of your whole being, and integrative care is therefore focused on the person, not on either the disease or a therapy. It is provided collaboratively by a health team comprising physicians, psychologists, physiotherapists, acupuncturists, and meditation, nutrition, and floral therapy. Previous studies have demonstrated that interventions based on the integrative care model improved womens lifestyle and quality of life. Our aim was to describe the use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) alongside traditional medicine among women with sleep conditions in our Womens Sleep Disorders Integrative Treatment Outpatient Clinic. We are sharing our experiences and clinical practice as the model we developed seems to have both physical and psychological benefits for women with sleep problems. We discuss the wide range of benefits that result from this type of complex intervention, and the contextual factors that may influence these benefits. This will inform future practitioners and we hope to contribute to quantitative research in the clinical setting. The study highlights the importance of treating sleep complaints with a caring relationship and a CAM approach, alongside conventional medicine. Exploration of the lived experience of CAM and its meaning enables healthcare professionals to gain insights into the patients needs, preferences, and values. Gynecologists, clinicians, and health care providers should support and guide patients in their decision to use CAM by providing evidence-based and comprehensive advice on the potential benefits, risks and related safety issues of this approach. PMID:29410750

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment I. Methods and metrics for defining exposure-response relationships and points of departure (PoDs)

EPA Science Inventory

This report summarizes the discussion, conclusions, and points of consensus of the IWGT Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (QWG) based on a meeting in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil October 31–November 2, 2013. Topics addressed incl...

Mapping Adipose and Muscle Tissue Expression Quantitative Trait Loci in African Americans to Identify Genes for Type 2 Diabetes and Obesity

PubMed Central

Sajuthi, Satria P.; Sharma, Neeraj K.; Chou, Jeff W.; Palmer, Nicholette D.; McWilliams, David R.; Beal, John; Comeau, Mary E.; Ma, Lijun; Calles-Escandon, Jorge; Demons, Jamehl; Rogers, Samantha; Cherry, Kristina; Menon, Lata; Kouba, Ethel; Davis, Donna; Burris, Marcie; Byerly, Sara J.; Ng, Maggie C.Y.; Maruthur, Nisa M.; Patel, Sanjay R.; Bielak, Lawrence F.; Lange, Leslie; Guo, Xiuqing; Sale, Michèle M.; Chan, Kei Hang; Monda, Keri L.; Chen, Gary K.; Taylor, Kira; Palmer, Cameron; Edwards, Todd L; North, Kari E.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Bowden, Donald W.; Freedman, Barry I.; Langefeld, Carl D.; Das, Swapan K.

2016-01-01

Relative to European Americans, type 2 diabetes (T2D) is more prevalent in African Americans (AAs). Genetic variation may modulate transcript abundance in insulin-responsive tissues and contribute to risk; yet published studies identifying expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) in African ancestry populations are restricted to blood cells. This study aims to develop a map of genetically regulated transcripts expressed in tissues important for glucose homeostasis in AAs, critical for identifying the genetic etiology of T2D and related traits. Quantitative measures of adipose and muscle gene expression, and genotypic data were integrated in 260 non-diabetic AAs to identify expression regulatory variants. Their roles in genetic susceptibility to T2D, and related metabolic phenotypes were evaluated by mining GWAS datasets. eQTL analysis identified 1,971 and 2,078 cis-eGenes in adipose and muscle, respectively. Cis-eQTLs for 885 transcripts including top cis-eGenes CHURC1, USMG5, and ERAP2, were identified in both tissues. 62.1% of top cis-eSNPs were within ±50kb of transcription start sites and cis-eGenes were enriched for mitochondrial transcripts. Mining GWAS databases revealed association of cis-eSNPs for more than 50 genes with T2D (e.g. PIK3C2A, RBMS1, UFSP1), gluco-metabolic phenotypes, (e.g. INPP5E, SNX17, ERAP2, FN3KRP), and obesity (e.g. POMC, CPEB4). Integration of GWAS meta-analysis data from AA cohorts revealed the most significant association for cis-eSNPs of ATP5SL and MCCC1 genes, with T2D and BMI, respectively. This study developed the first comprehensive map of adipose and muscle tissue eQTLs in AAs (publically accessible at https://mdsetaa.phs.wakehealth.edu) and identified genetically-regulated transcripts for delineating genetic causes of T2D, and related metabolic phenotypes. PMID:27193597

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the need for quantitative dose–response analysis of genetic toxicology data, the existence and appropriate evaluation of threshold responses, and methods to analyze exposure-response relationships and derive points of departure (PoDs) from which acceptable exposure levels could be determined. This report summarizes the QWG discussions and recommendations regarding appropriate approaches to evaluate exposure-related risks of genotoxic damage, including extrapolation below identified PoDs and across test systems and species. Recommendations include the selection of appropriate genetic endpoints and target tissues, uncertainty factors and extrapolation methods to be considered, the importance and use of information on mode of action, toxicokinetics, metabolism, and exposure biomarkers when using quantitative exposure-response data to determine acceptable exposure levels in human populations or to assess the risk associated with known or anticipated exposures. The empirical relationship between genetic damage (mutation and chromosomal aberration) and cancer in animal models was also examined. It was concluded that there is a general correlation between cancer induction and mutagenic and/or clast

Unmanned aircraft system sense and avoid integrity and continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamoom, Michael B.

This thesis describes new methods to guarantee safety of sense and avoid (SAA) functions for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) by evaluating integrity and continuity risks. Previous SAA efforts focused on relative safety metrics, such as risk ratios, comparing the risk of using an SAA system versus not using it. The methods in this thesis evaluate integrity and continuity risks as absolute measures of safety, as is the established practice in commercial aircraft terminal area navigation applications. The main contribution of this thesis is a derivation of a new method, based on a standard intruder relative constant velocity assumption, that uses hazard state estimates and estimate error covariances to establish (1) the integrity risk of the SAA system not detecting imminent loss of '"well clear," which is the time and distance required to maintain safe separation from intruder aircraft, and (2) the probability of false alert, the continuity risk. Another contribution is applying these integrity and continuity risk evaluation methods to set quantifiable and certifiable safety requirements on sensors. A sensitivity analysis uses this methodology to evaluate the impact of sensor errors on integrity and continuity risks. The penultimate contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation where the estimation model is refined to address realistic intruder relative linear accelerations, which goes beyond the current constant velocity standard. The final contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation addressing multiple intruders. This evaluation is a new innovation-based method to determine the risk of mis-associating intruder measurements. A mis-association occurs when the SAA system incorrectly associates a measurement to the wrong intruder, causing large errors in the estimated intruder trajectories. The new methods described in this thesis can help ensure safe encounters between aircraft and enable SAA sensor certification for UAS integration into the National Airspace System.

The Use of Mixed Methods for Therapeutic Massage Research

PubMed Central

Porcino, Antony Joseph; Verhoef, Marja J.

2010-01-01

Mixed methods research is the integration of quantitative and qualitative components in a research project. Whether you are reading or designing a mixed methods research project, it is important to be familiar with both qualitative and quantitative research methods and the specific purposes for which they are brought together in a study: triangulation, complementarity, expansion, initiation, or development. In addition, decisions need to be made about the sequencing and the priority or importance of each qualitative and quantitative component relative to the other components, and the point or points at which the various qualitative and quantitative components will be integrated. Mixed methods research is increasingly being recognized for its ability to bring multiple points of view to a research project, taking advantage of the strengths of each of the quantitative and qualitative components to explain or resolve complex phenomena or results. This ability becomes critical when complex healing systems such as therapeutic massage are being studied. Complex healing systems may have multiple physiologic effects, often reflected in changes throughout the patient’s body. Additionally, the patient’s experience of the treatment may be an important outcome. PMID:21589698

A quantitative visual dashboard to explore exposures to consumer product ingredients

EPA Science Inventory

The Exposure Prioritization (Ex Priori) model features a simplified, quantitative visual dashboard to explore exposures across chemical space. Diverse data streams are integrated within the interface such that different exposure scenarios for “individual,” “pop...

Assessing pesticide risks to threatened and endangered species using population models: Findings and recommendations from a CropLife America Science Forum.

PubMed

Forbes, V E; Brain, R; Edwards, D; Galic, N; Hall, T; Honegger, J; Meyer, C; Moore, D R J; Nacci, D; Pastorok, R; Preuss, T G; Railsback, S F; Salice, C; Sibly, R M; Tenhumberg, B; Thorbek, P; Wang, M

2015-07-01

This brief communication reports on the main findings and recommendations from the 2014 Science Forum organized by CropLife America. The aim of the Forum was to gain a better understanding of the current status of population models and how they could be used in ecological risk assessments for threatened and endangered species potentially exposed to pesticides in the United States. The Forum panelists' recommendations are intended to assist the relevant government agencies with implementation of population modeling in future endangered species risk assessments for pesticides. The Forum included keynote presentations that provided an overview of current practices, highlighted the findings of a recent National Academy of Sciences report and its implications, reviewed the main categories of existing population models and the types of risk expressions that can be produced as model outputs, and provided examples of how population models are currently being used in different legislative contexts. The panel concluded that models developed for listed species assessments should provide quantitative risk estimates, incorporate realistic variability in environmental and demographic factors, integrate complex patterns of exposure and effects, and use baseline conditions that include present factors that have caused the species to be listed (e.g., habitat loss, invasive species) or have resulted in positive management action. Furthermore, the panel advocates for the formation of a multipartite advisory committee to provide best available knowledge and guidance related to model implementation and use, to address such needs as more systematic collection, digitization, and dissemination of data for listed species; consideration of the newest developments in good modeling practice; comprehensive review of existing population models and their applicability for listed species assessments; and development of case studies using a few well-tested models for particular species to demonstrate proof of concept. To advance our common goals, the panel recommends the following as important areas for further research and development: quantitative analysis of the causes of species listings to guide model development; systematic assessment of the relative role of toxicity versus other factors in driving pesticide risk; additional study of how interactions between density dependence and pesticides influence risk; and development of pragmatic approaches to assessing indirect effects of pesticides on listed species. © 2015 SETAC.

The CLUVA project: Climate-change scenarios and their impact on urban areas in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Ruocco, Angela; Weets, Guy; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Lindley, Sarah; Pauleit, Stephan; Vahed, Anwar; Schiano, Pasquale; Kabisch, Sigrun; Vedeld, Trond; Coly, Adrien; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its main objective is the estimate of the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The mission of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to assess risks cascading from climate-changes. It downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; vulnerability of in-town ecosystems and urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary quantitative, probabilistic, modelling is applied. CLUVA brings together climate experts, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists with their African counterparts in an integrated research effort focusing on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. The CLUVA approach was set-up in the first year of the project and developed as follows: an ensemble of eight global projections of climate changes is produced for east and west Africa until 2050 considering the new IPCC (International Panel on Climate Changes; http://www.ipcc.ch/) scenarios. These are then downscaled to urban level, where territorial modeling is required to compute hazard effects on the vulnerable physical system (urban ecosystems, informal settlements, lifelines such as transportation and sewer networks) as well as on the social context, in defined time frames, and risk analysis is then employed to assess expected consequences. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks is performed. With the aid of the African partners, the developed approach is currently being applied to selected African case studies: Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania, Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso, St. Louis - Senegal. The poster will illustrate the CLUVA's framework to assess climate-change-related risks at an urban scale in Africa, and will report on the progresses of selected case studies to demonstrate feasibility of a multi-scale and multi-risk quantitative approach for risk management.

EMERGY METHODS: VALUABLE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT TOOLS

EPA Science Inventory

NHEERL's Atlantic Ecology Division is investigating emergy methods as tools for integrated assessment in several projects evaluating environmental impacts, policies, and alternatives for remediation and intervention. Emergy accounting is a methodology that provides a quantitative...

A systematic review of quantitative burn wound microbiology in the management of burns patients.

PubMed

Halstead, Fenella D; Lee, Kwang Chear; Kwei, Johnny; Dretzke, Janine; Oppenheim, Beryl A; Moiemen, Naiem S

2018-02-01

The early diagnosis of infection or sepsis in burns are important for patient care. Globally, a large number of burn centres advocate quantitative cultures of wound biopsies for patient management, since there is assumed to be a direct link between the bioburden of a burn wound and the risk of microbial invasion. Given the conflicting study findings in this area, a systematic review was warranted. Bibliographic databases were searched with no language restrictions to August 2015. Study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessment were performed in duplicate using pre-defined criteria. Substantial heterogeneity precluded quantitative synthesis, and findings were described narratively, sub-grouped by clinical question. Twenty six laboratory and/or clinical studies were included. Substantial heterogeneity hampered comparisons across studies and interpretation of findings. Limited evidence suggests that (i) more than one quantitative microbiology sample is required to obtain reliable estimates of bacterial load; (ii) biopsies are more sensitive than swabs in diagnosing or predicting sepsis; (iii) high bacterial loads may predict worse clinical outcomes, and (iv) both quantitative and semi-quantitative culture reports need to be interpreted with caution and in the context of other clinical risk factors. The evidence base for the utility and reliability of quantitative microbiology for diagnosing or predicting clinical outcomes in burns patients is limited and often poorly reported. Consequently future research is warranted. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitts, M. A.; Kerstman, E.; Butler, D. J.; Walton, M. E.; Minard, C. G.; Saile, L. G.; Toy, S.; Myers, J.

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Household physical activity and cancer risk: a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of epidemiological studies

PubMed Central

Shi, Yun; Li, Tingting; Wang, Ying; Zhou, Lingling; Qin, Qin; Yin, Jieyun; Wei, Sheng; Liu, Li; Nie, Shaofa

2015-01-01

Controversial results of the association between household physical activity and cancer risk were reported among previous epidemiological studies. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the relationship of household physical activity and cancer risk quantitatively, especially in dose-response manner. PubMed, Embase, Web of science and the Cochrane Library were searched for cohort or case-control studies that examined the association between household physical activity and cancer risks. Random–effect models were conducted to estimate the summary relative risks (RRs), nonlinear or linear dose–response meta-analyses were performed to estimate the trend from the correlated log RR estimates across levels of household physical activity quantitatively. Totally, 30 studies including 41 comparisons met the inclusion criteria. Total cancer risks were reduced 16% among the people with highest household physical activity compared to those with lowest household physical activity (RR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.76–0.93). The dose-response analyses indicated an inverse linear association between household physical activity and cancer risk. The relative risk was 0.98 (95% CI = 0.97–1.00) for per additional 10 MET-hours/week and it was 0.99 (95% CI = 0.98–0.99) for per 1 hour/week increase. These findings provide quantitative data supporting household physical activity is associated with decreased cancer risk in dose-response effect. PMID:26443426

75 FR 1617 - Draft Toxicological Review of Methanol: In Support of the Summary Information in the Integrated...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-12

... on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R-09/013). The draft document was... ``Toxicological Review of Methanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System... Toxicological Review of Methanol: In Support of the Summary Information in the Integrated Risk Information...

76 FR 54228 - Draft Toxicological Review of Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-31

... Toxicological Review of Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information... Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R... Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' is available...

Bayes` theorem and quantitative risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaplan, S.

1994-12-31

This paper argues that for a quantitative risk analysis (QRA) to be useful for public and private decision making, and for rallying the support necessary to implement those decisions, it is necessary that the QRA results be ``trustable.`` Trustable means that the results are based solidly and logically on all the relevant evidence available. This, in turn, means that the quantitative results must be derived from the evidence using Bayes` theorem. Thus, it argues that one should strive to make their QRAs more clearly and explicitly Bayesian, and in this way make them more ``evidence dependent`` than ``personality dependent.``

Integration of Research Studies: Meta-Analysis of Research. Methods of Integrative Analysis; Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glass, Gene V.; And Others

Integrative analysis, or what is coming to be known as meta-analysis, is the integration of the findings of many empirical research studies of a topic. Meta-analysis differs from traditional narrative forms of research reviewing in that it is more quantitative and statistical. Thus, the methods of meta-analysis are merely statistical methods,…

76 FR 28819 - NUREG/CR-XXXX, Development of Quantitative Software Reliability Models for Digital Protection...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-18

... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [NRC-2011-0109] NUREG/CR-XXXX, Development of Quantitative Software..., ``Development of Quantitative Software Reliability Models for Digital Protection Systems of Nuclear Power Plants... of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission...

76 FR 22045 - Fluopicolide; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-20

... increased quantitative susceptibility of rat or rabbit fetuses to in utero or postnatal exposure to... is identified as docket ID number EPA-HQ-OPP-2006-0481. A quantitative reassessment of the BAM risk... fluopicolide and separately, its metabolite, BAM in food as follows: i. Acute exposure. Quantitative acute...

Quantitative breast MRI radiomics for cancer risk assessment and the monitoring of high-risk populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendel, Kayla R.; Li, Hui; Giger, Maryellen L.

2016-03-01

Breast density is routinely assessed qualitatively in screening mammography. However, it is challenging to quantitatively determine a 3D density from a 2D image such as a mammogram. Furthermore, dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) is used more frequently in the screening of high-risk populations. The purpose of our study is to segment parenchyma and to quantitatively determine volumetric breast density on pre-contrast axial DCE-MRI images (i.e., non-contrast) using a semi-automated quantitative approach. In this study, we retroactively examined 3D DCE-MRI images taken for breast cancer screening of a high-risk population. We analyzed 66 cases with ages between 28 and 76 (mean 48.8, standard deviation 10.8). DCE-MRIs were obtained on a Philips 3.0 T scanner. Our semi-automated DCE-MRI algorithm includes: (a) segmentation of breast tissue from non-breast tissue using fuzzy cmeans clustering (b) separation of dense and fatty tissues using Otsu's method, and (c) calculation of volumetric density as the ratio of dense voxels to total breast voxels. We examined the relationship between pre-contrast DCE-MRI density and clinical BI-RADS density obtained from radiology reports, and obtained a statistically significant correlation [Spearman ρ-value of 0.66 (p < 0.0001)]. Our method within precision medicine may be useful for monitoring high-risk populations.

Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis.

PubMed

Johansson, Henrik

2002-07-01

Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory.

Integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment through the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from relevant stressors across different species. Integration is important to provide a more complete assessment of risk, but evaluating endpoints a...

Advances in Imaging Approaches to Fracture Risk Evaluation

PubMed Central

Manhard, Mary Kate; Nyman, Jeffry S.; Does, Mark D.

2016-01-01

Fragility fractures are a growing problem worldwide, and current methods for diagnosing osteoporosis do not always identify individuals who require treatment to prevent a fracture and may misidentify those not a risk. Traditionally, fracture risk is assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, which provides measurements of areal bone mineral density (BMD) at sites prone to fracture. Recent advances in imaging show promise in adding new information that could improve the prediction of fracture risk in the clinic. As reviewed herein, advances in quantitative computed tomography (QCT) predict hip and vertebral body strength; high resolution HR-peripheral QCT (HR-pQCT) and micro-magnetic resonance imaging (μMRI) assess the micro-architecture of trabecular bone; quantitative ultrasound (QUS) measures the modulus or tissue stiffness of cortical bone; and quantitative ultra-short echo time MRI methods quantify the concentrations of bound water and pore water in cortical bone, which reflect a variety of mechanical properties of bone. Each of these technologies provides unique characteristics of bone and may improve fracture risk diagnoses and reduce prevalence of fractures by helping to guide treatment decisions. PMID:27816505

Failure dynamics of the global risk network.

PubMed

Szymanski, Boleslaw K; Lin, Xin; Asztalos, Andrea; Sreenivasan, Sameet

2015-06-18

Risks threatening modern societies form an intricately interconnected network that often underlies crisis situations. Yet, little is known about how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. Here we present an approach in which expert assessments of likelihoods and influence of risks underlie a quantitative model of the global risk network dynamics. The modeled risks range from environmental to economic and technological, and include difficult to quantify risks, such as geo-political and social. Using the maximum likelihood estimation, we find the optimal model parameters and demonstrate that the model including network effects significantly outperforms the others, uncovering full value of the expert collected data. We analyze the model dynamics and study its resilience and stability. Our findings include such risk properties as contagion potential, persistence, roles in cascades of failures and the identity of risks most detrimental to system stability. The model provides quantitative means for measuring the adverse effects of risk interdependencies and the materialization of risks in the network.

Integral refractive index imaging of flowing cell nuclei using quantitative phase microscopy combined with fluorescence microscopy.

PubMed

Dardikman, Gili; Nygate, Yoav N; Barnea, Itay; Turko, Nir A; Singh, Gyanendra; Javidi, Barham; Shaked, Natan T

2018-03-01

We suggest a new multimodal imaging technique for quantitatively measuring the integral (thickness-average) refractive index of the nuclei of live biological cells in suspension. For this aim, we combined quantitative phase microscopy with simultaneous 2-D fluorescence microscopy. We used 2-D fluorescence microscopy to localize the nucleus inside the quantitative phase map of the cell, as well as for measuring the nucleus radii. As verified offline by both 3-D confocal fluorescence microscopy and 2-D fluorescence microscopy while rotating the cells during flow, the nucleus of cells in suspension that are not during division can be assumed to be an ellipsoid. The entire shape of a cell in suspension can be assumed to be a sphere. Then, the cell and nucleus 3-D shapes can be evaluated based on their in-plain radii available from the 2-D phase and fluorescent measurements, respectively. Finally, the nucleus integral refractive index profile is calculated. We demonstrate the new technique on cancer cells, obtaining nucleus refractive index values that are lower than those of the cytoplasm, coinciding with recent findings. We believe that the proposed technique has the potential to be used for flow cytometry, where full 3-D refractive index tomography is too slow to be implemented during flow.

The use of mode of action information in risk assessment: quantitative key events/dose-response framework for modeling the dose-response for key events.

PubMed

Simon, Ted W; Simons, S Stoney; Preston, R Julian; Boobis, Alan R; Cohen, Samuel M; Doerrer, Nancy G; Fenner-Crisp, Penelope A; McMullin, Tami S; McQueen, Charlene A; Rowlands, J Craig

2014-08-01

The HESI RISK21 project formed the Dose-Response/Mode-of-Action Subteam to develop strategies for using all available data (in vitro, in vivo, and in silico) to advance the next-generation of chemical risk assessments. A goal of the Subteam is to enhance the existing Mode of Action/Human Relevance Framework and Key Events/Dose Response Framework (KEDRF) to make the best use of quantitative dose-response and timing information for Key Events (KEs). The resulting Quantitative Key Events/Dose-Response Framework (Q-KEDRF) provides a structured quantitative approach for systematic examination of the dose-response and timing of KEs resulting from a dose of a bioactive agent that causes a potential adverse outcome. Two concepts are described as aids to increasing the understanding of mode of action-Associative Events and Modulating Factors. These concepts are illustrated in two case studies; 1) cholinesterase inhibition by the pesticide chlorpyrifos, which illustrates the necessity of considering quantitative dose-response information when assessing the effect of a Modulating Factor, that is, enzyme polymorphisms in humans, and 2) estrogen-induced uterotrophic responses in rodents, which demonstrate how quantitative dose-response modeling for KE, the understanding of temporal relationships between KEs and a counterfactual examination of hypothesized KEs can determine whether they are Associative Events or true KEs.

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers--specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products.

PubMed

Mataragas, M; Zwietering, M H; Skandamis, P N; Drosinos, E H

2010-07-31

The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required), support growth of pathogens (high initial pH=6.2-6.4 and water activity=0.98-0.99) and has a relatively long period of storage at chilled temperatures with a shelf life equal to 60 days based on manufacturer's instructions. Therefore, in case of post-process contamination, even with low number of cells, the microorganism is able to reach unacceptable levels at the time of consumption. The aim of this study was to conduct a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) on the risk of L. monocytogenes presence in RTE meat products. This may help risk managers to make decisions and apply control measures with ultimate objective the food safety assurance. Examples are given to illustrate the development of practical risk management strategies based on the results obtained from the QMRA model specifically developed for this pathogen/food product combination. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.